The first Roy Morgan face-to-face poll to catch the full force of the OzCar aftermath shows Labor’s two-party lead up from 55-45 to 58-42. Conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 1190 (smaller than usual from a poll covering two weeks), it has Labor up 0.5 per cent on the primary vote to 46.5 per cent and the Coalition down a sharp four points to 35 per cent. The slack has been taken up by the Greens, up 3.5 per cent to 11.5 per cent.
Here’s an incomplete sampling of the past week’s action. This site’s normal energy levels will resume in about a week or so.
• Monday’s weekly Essential Research survey had Labor’s two-party lead up from 58-42 to 59-41. Supplementary questions showed a spike in confidence in the economy, but a somewhat paradoxical increase in concern about employment; Joe Hockey favoured over Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader by 17 per cent to 13 per cent; and the Labor Party viewed more favourably than the Liberals on 11 separate measures.
• The South Australian Liberals have a new leader in Heysen MP Isobel Redmond. Redmond succeeds Waite MP Martin Hamilton-Smith, who was mortally wounded after accusing the government of doing favours for an organisation linked to the Church of Scientology using what proved to be faked emails. Hamilton-Smith called an initial spill last Friday after Mackillop MP Mitch Williams quit the shadow ministry, which was universally interpreted as an attempt to undermine Hamilton-Smith ahead of a future pitch for his job. However, Williams declined to put his name forward at the ensuing spill, at which the sole rival nominee was deputy leader and Bragg MP Vickie Chapman. After inital expectations he would comfortably survive, Hamilton-Smith emerged from the vote without the support of a party room majority: while he won the vote 11 to 10, one member had abstained. Hamilton-Smith called another spill to clear the air, but when Redmond (who had been newly elected in place of Chapman as deputy) said she would put her name forward he announced he would stand aside. The result was a three-way tussle between Redmond, Chapman and Williams, in which Redmond defeated Chapman by 13 votes to nine after Williams was excluded in the first round. Goyder MP Steven Griffiths won the vote for deputy ahead of Williams by eight votes to six (since only lower house MPs get to vote for the deputy, whereas members from both houses have a vote for the leadership).
• Antony Green crunches some electoral numbers to conclude that, contrary to widespread belief, Labor’s position in the Senate would be better if the next election were for half the chamber in the normal fashion, rather than a double dissolution.
• Against his better judgement, Peter Brent at Mumble enters the world of blogdom. He’s also written a piece on Inside Story which delivers on what I emptily promised a few weeks back, namely to review the report of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters report into the 2007 election.
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Mr Bird and Myself are Facebook Friends and I commented on his Status
Frank, only mean I have no idea about Facebook, have not got into it. Probably won’t.
Don’t even have the faintest idea what or who Mr Bird is, or how Mr Bird flitted into this conversation.
So, okay?
Regards
Crikey
xx
For a blog with a different style…
http://posts.people.com.cn/bbs_new/filepool/htdoc/html/fa55b84865e12e8cfed39984b53db6282017122b/b3594639/l_3594639_1.html
Had some old friends over last night for dinner. They used to be our next-door neighbours. We still don’t live far away (same suburb) but hadn’t seen them for a while and missed them.
We always used to have a light-hearted banter about politics. They’re very Liberal and we’re on the other side. But it never got angry or nasty. That was before 2007 and the election.
This was the first political discussion we’d had at length since then. Their attitudes have changed markedly. They hate Rudd. It got quite uncomfortable until I changed the subject.
The stimpac didn’t fix anything, because nothing needed to be fixed. The GFC is all a con so that Labor can pork barrel. We’ve borrowed too much and will never pay it back. The schools scheme is a crock. Tradies they know (he’s an accountant) aren’t getting any work. They’re going broke because all the money for schools is being wasted on bureaucracy and isn’t filtering through. The $950 one-off paymen mostly went to bludgers, dead people and overseas residents and hasn’t had any effect on either employment or the retail sector.
Rudd is a nerd and a chameleon: many things to many people, but has no set personna of his own. A complete fraud, and his front bench are a bunch of no-talent socialists who want to take everyone’s homes away from them and give them to the Chinese.
His face was reasonably controlled, but her face was a picture of disgust: curled lips, heavy sarcastic expressions, almost spitting hatred.
I couldn’t work out whether it was tghe Akerman line, the Milne line or what it was… maybe their own line or argument. They were absolutely incapable of seeing anything good at all in anything Labor has done, or will do.
It was quite disturbing to me that these really good people who you could have a laugh and a drink with and a toss around of political ideas from time to time had become so fixated on their hatred of Rudd.
Missing in action, MSM’s headline:
China born Australian Chinese businessman caught up in spy case
I have friends like that as well Bushfire and they to absolutely hate Rudd. I wonder if this anger comes from fear, the fear that they know in their heart of hearts that this Gov is likely to be in power for some considerable time.
Bushfire Bill
If you believe politics is a blood sport instead of a method to allocate scarce resources it is a lot easier to be rational if your team is winning.
You need to be sad for the Liberal party, people in that state will not be able to do the rational things that need to be done to sort it out, and the problem runs a lot deeper than a couple in the suburbs, for proof read the rubbish printed as opinion pieces in the Australian and the comments they attract, look at Turnbull’s behaviour.
For why you should be sad for the Liberal party consider the result, the editors of the Australian are destroying a once great paper and Turnbull is getting the party into a bigger mess.
PS
Love your writing.
Bushfire Bill
You should ask them why they vote for the Liberals, knowing the agenda is to screw their grandkids at work.
Perhaps you’re right Keith (if I may call you that). The change from bemused dismissal to outright nastiness was palpable. It had finally happened. The Libs had been turfed out and they couldn’t afford to be as dismissive anymore.
They’re not actually Liberals, either. They’re further to the right than that. They have their own brand of right-wing thinking that is mixed up with xenophobia (a great dislike, in particular of Asians, but the Lebanese get a big serve too) and extreme anti-unionism. They hardly ever talk politics, believe it or not, and have to be nudged a bit to do so. But when they get going, stand back!
We love them for their “other selves”: their willingness to be good neighbours, always welcoming, generous with a “nothing’s too much trouble” attitude. And of course we’ll continue to do so, because they’re good people with some weird ideas (well, weird to me). As long as we keep of politics. I’ll remember that next time we see them. I needed reminding.
I just re-read George Megalogenis’s article. Did anyone else get the idea that it was almost obsessively factual in nature? As if George had decided to try to rebut some of his colleagues’ ideas on the government, but in order to do so had to marshall a container load of bare facts and drop it on them from a height. There didn’t seem to be the usual Megalogenis style about it. The writing was almost in bullet point format. I got the feeling that he was worried about getting into trouble if he dared to express an actual opinion, which is what most of the others do at News, without factual backup.
Don’t get me wrong. It was a change to read this kind of stuff inthe OO. A real sort of “Emperor has no clothes” article. But I got an inkling that George felt he needed to be especially careful with what he wrote.
BB it will take a few terms from many to come to terms with the demise of Howard. Some proceed through the stages of grief very very slowly.
The hatred of Rudd fuels the belief that it is only a matter of time before the majority feel that way and shows a total ignorance on the polls. This hatred is what will keep the opposition from internal reflection and change, and ironically help keep Rudd in power.
Me thinks too much Alan Jones. I too have a very good long time family friend who hates Rudd. She always listens to Alan Jones and repeats things she could have only heard on his show. Oh! and knows someone who voted for Rudd in 07 but want ever vote for him again, never told me why.
Another bark from the the Liberal cheerer Peter Van Onslen. Point 3 demonstrates he reads PB?
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,25765315-5001030,00.html
The MSM will get all their ideas from PB.
Bushfire Bill 204
Old friends or not Bill I thought you would wuld have given them the ol’ BBBB
i.e. Bushfire Bill’s Both Barrels
Sounds like they deserve it.
Yeah, I’d forgotten Jones. Perhaps that’s where they got the seeds for their ideas from. Of course I’m assuming they got their ideas from somewhere. It’s quite possible they thought them up completely by themselves. Does that last statement asound patronising? I think it was, but it’s based on the fact that in Australia just about the only mass audience opinionation is right wing. When was the last time we had a mad Lefty raver with a decent crowd listening to or reading him? It just doesn’t happen here.
I can’t think of one Left wing radio or press personality with a good following. They’re all Akermans, Milnes, Joneses, Hadleys and the like. Maybe Mike Carlton in Sydney could qualify as at least non-partisan Liberal, but he keeps his head down nowadays. He actually lost his writing job at the Herald for refusing to cross a union picket line. He used to be a good read on a Saturday morning. Sadly missed now.
What I’m getting at is that it’s easy to typify a remark made by a right wing supporter as coming straight out of Jones’ mouth, or Akerman’s column, or Hadleys talk back show. But for Lefties we have no such ready source of popular input. We just don’t have the bums on studio or press room seats out there writing the kind of opinionation that is amply supplied by the right, everywhere you turn. Just about the most the right can accuse Leftie journalists and presenters of being is insinuating, or closet Lefties. They have to read between the lines of so-and-so to pick them as a Rudd Lover.
Meanwhile, on the other side, there’s Albrechtsen – amazingly a critic of bias at the ABC when she herself is a Board member! – writing directly that Howard should not be forgotten. There’s the incessant talk back right wing chatter, the union bashing, the xenophobia and so on, draping itself in the flag like Jones did during the Cronulla riots. The Lefties have to be more subtle, or else there’s hell to pay.
Yet we have an extremely popular Labor government that is on track to increase its majority next election. That, to me, seems to be a paradox.
Another thing BB, many of us hated Howard with a similar passion (and look how many terms he won) but it wasnt until Labor accepted that he was relatively popular in the electorate and that they werent going to wake up one day and hate him, that they were able to develop their own strategy and policies and agreed with him where necessary
There were good reasons for that, not the least of which being they were our invited guests and we do truly love them for themselves, just not too keen on their politics. When it looked like it might have gotten to the “Come on, let’s go home, we don’t have to put up with thi bull$hit” stage was when I changed the subject. And I’m really glad I did. We go back too far to let politics come between us.
Gee… I just noticed… a dozen comments responding to each other and not one Labor v. Greens flame post, not one mention of the DLP and nobody shouting at anybody else, trying to skewer them with their own words. This must be a record.
The couple you write about BB sound very much like my friends who hate Rudd because he hasn’t lived up to their expectations that he wouldn’t and couldn’t run the economy and be successful on the world stage. To make it worse, Rudd and his team have shone a bright light on the myth that Lib/Nat are good and Labor is bad. Like your friends, mine are also xenophobic, anti those less fortunate because they are ‘bludgers’, and are anti unions. And like your friends, they rarely discuss politics outside their family, but on the occasions when they did ask for my views, there was never any angst or hostility towards me for my opposing views – until after the 2007 election that is.
Sadly these good friends now avoid me like the plague as if I might contaminate them because I voted for Rudd. I think that because the Coalition is in a state of chaos and their leaders, post Howard, are more than disappointing to them they have transferred their disappointment and disgust onto Rudd.
Why would you want to associate with racist fascists at all? Beats me …
213
What is ‘wuld’? I have no idea.
Just a comment on Megalogenis’s latest piece. To me he sounds like a Stranger in a Strange Land. Gosh it must be difficult to maintain self respect and integrity whilst working for Murdoch.
BB I dont think its the differences that are the problem, its the blind ignorance and lack of a convincing argument that is annoying. I have friends with similar leanings to your own, and when you ask them about substantive issues like the stimulus spending, infrastructure, the environment they are so convinced that Rudd is doing the wrong thing but cant come up with any meaningful justification or alterative. Irritating.
i meant similar leanings to your friends not yours
Because they’ve always been particularly good to us and to evryone else I know who knows them. They’re a very giving family, strong, bonded to each other and generous to a fault. I have no reason to keep away from them. Having said that, the reason for the dinner was to catch up, as we hadn’t socialized for a while.
One particular incident – a random, dreadful accident – that has happened in their lives has tried them like no people should be tried. They were exemplary in their response to it. I don’t think I could have ever recovered enough to even go out the front door again. But they’ve accepted what happened as a fact and although I don’t think they’ll ever forget or forgive, they are a lesson to us all that I, for one, hope never to have to learn directly. Perhaps this had something to do with their apparent hardening. But I didn’t probe or ask. I was better to change the subject and get onto a subject we could discuss without rancour.
Why would you want to associate with racist fascists at all? Beats me …
Because they’re friends with many good qualities. In my book, a friend is someone you love despite those things you perceive as faults.
Peter Van Onslen first suggestion is for Turnbull to spend his own money to get elected. No doubt the Labor party will be kind and not point out that the Liberals are in such a mess they can’t attract funding; that rich members of parliament have to put up the cash.
Most of us either work or own businesses that we work for, so I suspect most think business is important, but I would be willing to bet a majority of voters consider life/work balance important, I’m not sure point 3 is a clear winner. Of cause the Liberals need business cash, but does business really want work-choices, do the really care about unfair dismissal one way or the other.
What can the Liberals offer that business want. Ya; for sure the coal industry wants loads of cash to pollute, but there is an alternative energy industry that will employ a lot more people waiting to be built. Will Labor be kind enough to keep quite about coal industry funding?
The Liberal party is in a mess because there demographic is dying, but it’s funding that is really going to kill the party.
GG, i demand royalty.
Thanks for the link GG – when the Number 1 thing the Liberals need to do is improve fundraising yuo gotta worry. I would’ve thought coming up with some policies might be a bit of a higher priority…
Interested in BBs comment 204 and this piece from Abbott in the Age today:
http://www.theage.com.au/national/abbott-foresees-coming-out-for-conservatism-20090711-dgrj.html
So Abbott thinks they need “to bring the doctrine of conservatism back to the mainstream of Liberal Party politics.” ROTFL – as if it was anything else in the Howard era. This isn’t politically clever either. With Howard taking the Libs too far to the right for most Australian tastes, Labor has claimed the middle ground. Taking the Libs further right will not help that.
I think the psychology of Abbott is parallel to many Howard type conservatives. They like to be in control but still want to think of themselves as “nice decent people”. So they will be polite to those who think differently, as long as their authority isn’t challenged. Anyone who challenges that (eg Rudd) threatens their security at a deeply personal level. Hence they hate them. I find a lot of conservatives are basically control freaks. (I don’t mean the James Killen type principled conservatives here but those who simply want the current status quo preserved at all costs). Howard pandered to these people’s prejudices for too long and made them feel that not ponly were they correct in their views but that the majority agreed with them. They now face a painfull reality check.
Ironically, I think a lot of people on the extreme left are the same; that is why they are so vitriolic. You see examples of former communists switching over to the extreme right after the end of the cold war or their own student days. In both cases, they can’t see why anyone else would think differently to them, and don’t like it. Our three cats have more mental flexibility.
Later in the article Abbott refers to recovering “conservative values” and focusing on issues like gay marriage. It sounds like he is reading from the Karl Rove political playbook. He obviously hasn’t read how that has turned out for the Republicans. The liberals don’t need to recover their conservatism; they need ot recover their liberalism. In case Abbott hadn’t noticed, Australia isn’t the USA, and we don’t have over 50% of the population being fundamentalists (thank god, I mean thank the atheists
)
Anyway thats my rant for the day. If Abbott succeeds in taking the Liberals further to the right then Rudd and Swan should do all they cn to keep him in parliament for ever, because that is how long Labor will be in government.
“not one mention of the DLP”
Since everyone is being rational, the DLP is history, why does anyone care?
Hitler was generous to his friends too. So he must’ve been alright then …
Crikey whitey: that would be me. By my online name, anyway.
its funny how the media has shot themselves in the foot. after banging on about Helen Hiu and the implication that she was dodgy, now they are jumping up and down about Stern Hu. Cant have it both ways
mesmeralda on insiders. just wish Cassidy would bring up Hicks…
When did Mesmeralda become an expert on China? David Hicks must be staring open mouthed at her demands that if not charged Hu must be released immediately.
and she’s worried that we have offended China over Tibet- what about her and her party’s comments over the past few months. Breathtaking hypocrisy
Where was her protest about Tibet during the Bush visit?
Andrew @ 232
It depends on who they want to stomp on when they jump up and down. Helen Liu was the ‘chinese’ woman friend of a Labor Minister so of course she had to be dodgy, whereas Stern Hu is an ‘Australian’ employee of Rio Tinto whose incarceration might throw a bit of dirt on Rudd and Labor.
The Mesmeralda Razor Gang is being set up this week, that should be a hoot.
Why are the libs so concerned with chinese born stern hu not being charged yet but were happy to let australian born david hicks sit there for yeard without charges being laid? Very odd.
TPD – “China is turning out to be one of Kevin Rudd’s weaknesses”.
More tests…
Milne:
“This is a test for Kevin Rudd.”
The political hypocrisy is rampant, but you can guess that Hu’s family and company might be a little worried, as they shoot economic spies over in China (and their family has to pay for the bullet).
The best thing is for everyone to calm down. The Chinese won’t listen to bluster and demands.
Speaking of media bias, here is a really serious case that we shoudl be concerned about. In Brisbane the mighty Lions had their best win of the season last night over Geelong, in front of a good crowd of over 35000. Where did it come on the Courier Mail/Sunday Mail website this morning? Nowhere; zip; not even on the page. You have to click the Sport tab and then go to AFL to find the result. By comparison it was one of the lead items in the Age website.
It isn’t true that Brisbane is only a league town these days, but that is what the Courier Mail’s sport editors want you to think. Completely impartial of course.
Ah….Tony Abbott.
Such gems in that article.
I didn’t realise that, for the 12 years under Howard, conservatism was a hidden movement that dare not speak its name. (In fact, I remember an article by the beauteous Janet entitled something like “It’s cool to be conservative). But according to Tony, he and his fellow travellers have been shy little violets, hardly daring to raise their voices.
This is, of course, why it’s such a shock to us all to find out Tony Abbott is a conservative. Gosh, golly, I never noticed. How brave of Tony to, sans Howard (who obviously must have been the one suppressing conservatives all these years), throw off the shackles which have been binding him and speak out, in ways which he knows will be deeply unpopular with the rest of his progressive party.
And it hurts that the Howard government lost to an unworthy opponent.
Keep believing that, Tony.
Honestly, the Labor party should PAY him to stay in politics.
Never forget that Rio Tinto is a MNC (Multinational Corporation).
By definition a MNC is a bottom feeder. It’s only concerned and motivated by profit and lowest costs, not moral, social, environmental, human rights, health and safety considerations. It has no qualm in behaving corruptly and in politically Skulduggery. It would use its employees as such. It is no Snow White.
Remember James Hardie and Bernie Banton. JH moved its HQ to Holland to avoid its obligations and now it is moving again to Ireland likewise.
Finns,
“GG, i demand royalty”.
OK, you’re a Prince.
Sigh, yes. It’s all Rudd’s fault. Surely Rio Tinto has a few heavily paid people in it’s organisation who could also do some of the lifting on this?
The striking thing about the Abbott piece is the photo, the guy hasn’t even got the self control to keep his feet off the furniture.
Interesting that Chinalco bought into Rio to stop a BHP takeover of Rio Tinto. Taking up the latest rights issue will mean that Chinalco is also paying off a huge slab of Rio Tinto’s massive debt.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124635339097572377.html
So let me get this straight, rusted on conservatives hate Rudd? Really? Surprise, surprise, surprise!!
A swing of only just over 1%, away from the Coalition, is needed for the Greens to take an ACT Senator from them.
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