The first Roy Morgan face-to-face poll to catch the full force of the OzCar aftermath shows Labor’s two-party lead up from 55-45 to 58-42. Conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 1190 (smaller than usual from a poll covering two weeks), it has Labor up 0.5 per cent on the primary vote to 46.5 per cent and the Coalition down a sharp four points to 35 per cent. The slack has been taken up by the Greens, up 3.5 per cent to 11.5 per cent.
Here’s an incomplete sampling of the past week’s action. This site’s normal energy levels will resume in about a week or so.
• Monday’s weekly Essential Research survey had Labor’s two-party lead up from 58-42 to 59-41. Supplementary questions showed a spike in confidence in the economy, but a somewhat paradoxical increase in concern about employment; Joe Hockey favoured over Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader by 17 per cent to 13 per cent; and the Labor Party viewed more favourably than the Liberals on 11 separate measures.
• The South Australian Liberals have a new leader in Heysen MP Isobel Redmond. Redmond succeeds Waite MP Martin Hamilton-Smith, who was mortally wounded after accusing the government of doing favours for an organisation linked to the Church of Scientology using what proved to be faked emails. Hamilton-Smith called an initial spill last Friday after Mackillop MP Mitch Williams quit the shadow ministry, which was universally interpreted as an attempt to undermine Hamilton-Smith ahead of a future pitch for his job. However, Williams declined to put his name forward at the ensuing spill, at which the sole rival nominee was deputy leader and Bragg MP Vickie Chapman. After inital expectations he would comfortably survive, Hamilton-Smith emerged from the vote without the support of a party room majority: while he won the vote 11 to 10, one member had abstained. Hamilton-Smith called another spill to clear the air, but when Redmond (who had been newly elected in place of Chapman as deputy) said she would put her name forward he announced he would stand aside. The result was a three-way tussle between Redmond, Chapman and Williams, in which Redmond defeated Chapman by 13 votes to nine after Williams was excluded in the first round. Goyder MP Steven Griffiths won the vote for deputy ahead of Williams by eight votes to six (since only lower house MPs get to vote for the deputy, whereas members from both houses have a vote for the leadership).
• Antony Green crunches some electoral numbers to conclude that, contrary to widespread belief, Labor’s position in the Senate would be better if the next election were for half the chamber in the normal fashion, rather than a double dissolution.
• Against his better judgement, Peter Brent at Mumble enters the world of blogdom. He’s also written a piece on Inside Story which delivers on what I emptily promised a few weeks back, namely to review the report of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters report into the 2007 election.
681 Comments
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Yes Grog, where are the Rio Tinto bosses, why are’nt they speaking out to defend thier man.
Re the left hating Howard, there were many reasons to hate Howard 2 main reasons, taking away our Republic and givingh us the GST.
Then of coarse the racism dog whistles in particular remeber seeing Howard in front of the map of Australia pointing out the land the Aborigenies have under thier control and how they want to take our backyards.
That article by Abbott is very astute and clever for the message it sends out and the dangers that Tony sees for the libs.
The registration of an Australia First AAFI type party for the next election with its family based values and old style conservatism could see voters move away from the libs and not all the the votes come back through preferences.
It is those that Abbott is speaking to especially with his comments on marriage, the libs do not want a repeat of the Hanson years where they were shamed in some instances to disassociate themselves from her views and preferences.
I’d expect another lib or nat to next voice concerns over immigration and multiculturalism to further gently reinforce the message that they are still there for them.
There clearly are Rudd haters as there were Howard haters.
The difference, I’ve found is this:
Whenever I spoke to a Howard hater and asked why, politely, the response almost always related to a policy decision or actual incident. Too many to list, but the hatred was specific to something he had done.
With the Rudd haters, I don’t find that clarity. It’s usually some vague reference to unions or debt, but there’s no clear link between an action by Rudd and their hatred. Except for one action, which they never admit, but in my view is what drives the hatred – he beat John Howard in 2007 and in the process helped Howard to lose his seat.
They hate him because he humiliated Howard.
castle,
The party that Abbott is pining for is the DLP.
Which is probably why he is for bringing in pre-1975 type policies.
The ALP should buy copies of his book for every voter in Wentworth…
A rather soft interview from Barry C on Insiders this morning, but Julie Bishop did well nonetheless….
on a scale of one or two…I’d give her one
I, like Tony Abbott, would also like to see changes made in marriage laws.
I reckon men should be allowed to have as many wives as they like
Oh Squig you are one sick puppy. LOL.
# 254
I wouldn’t draw parallels between the pathological Howard hating we saw in the past and today’s strong dislike of Rudd. These are two very different things. The former has stronger connotations with passion, emotion and illogicality – words that do well to describe the centre-left in general.
My strong dislike of Rudd stems from the fact that apart from being a nasty piece of work, his administration is one of the most inept, vacuous and spin-driven since the post-war period. Destroying our envious fiscal position, shameless pork-barreling, budgetary and foreign policy incompetence and the free ride he receives from a vast majority of the press most likely turned me away from ever supporting his party in the future, no matter how uninspiring the alternative is.
Centre,
The penalty for multiple wives is multiple mothers in law.
Patrick,
You really are in to ironic satire. Love your work.
G G,
I’ve noticed that most of your contributions to this site consist of one or two sentence posts void of any degree of wit. Keep it up, mate. I enjoy idiocy in very small doses.
Good one Patrick, I almost cry when someone is most likely turned away from something they never supported ever.
Patrick,
“I enjoy idiocy in very small doses”.
Served from your large vat of fermented bile.
Growler, multiple mother in laws? Yes I admit we would need to iron out a few problems
Pat, I enjoy your work. We really do need someone like yourself around here to remind us just what it is like to hate with passion and without good cause, the very thing you accuse people here of doing. Well done.
Oh dear, Rudd and co are our creating jobs again. Bastards.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/12/2623366.htm
Aristotle 254
You’ve nailed it! Especially that last sentence.
Of course you hate Rudd, PF. Oh he is good, real good. And unfortunately you blokes are going to be in opposition for a long time, a very long time.
Interesting point Patrick
For myself, I was turned away from ever supporting Labor by PJK (1993-1996)…he gave a deep insight into the double standards that are a cornerstone of ALP politics
Truly, ruly, for trillions and billions of years…I swear, I’m never never going to vote labor, might even tell my mum about it etc
But look what I’m missing out on now….Rudd is so shiny and media perfect, even his lips are all glossy,
he’s apologised, he’s borrowed money and is throwing it all over, he speaks gobbledy-(insert politically correct word here)…Gosh, aren’t these things that define leadership?..
but look there’s more, he’s canned grocery watch, delayed ETS, reversed his econimic conservatism, accelerated the queue of boat people…
All within two years of winning office,
says it all really
# 271
Yeah, he’s Australia’s greatest ever PM!
Sounds like the Bills, the Squiggles and the Fogartys did Lunch the other day …
271
Maybe your mum will tell you to grow up.
Interesting that the Lions beat Geelong last night. I wonder if the West Coast could beat St.Kilda as well, given their undefeated clash the week before?
Btw, like Socrates pointed out in Brisbane, there was not one word spoken in Sydney of the big clash between Geelong and St.Kilda the previous week, not one word. The MSM are real worried that their Rugby League is going down.
Maybe your mum will ask, “Why can’t you be more like that nice Kevin Rudd in the Government”.
Have noted over recent months that there have been quite a number of comments arguing that the ABC has taken a big step to the right. I have tried to put these arguments aside believing that the national broadcaster should be running negatives stories of the Government for no other reason then they are the Government and accordingly are the ones making decisions.
However, this morning on Insiders my current view was undermined with the segment where they ask a particular group about something that happened during the week.
Today the Insiders crew went to a cattle sale in North Queensland and asked the “punters” what they though of Kevin Rudd. Now anyone whit only 2 grey cells in their head would know the answers they would get from such a population. Negative comment after negative comment was the order of the day.
I cannot see any value in such an exercise. We all know what the answers would be and of cause there could not be any balance in the segment.
It appears to be 5 minutes of Rudd bashing.
I look forward to the Insiders programme going to the ACTU Congress and asking the delegates what they think of Mr Turnbull and the Liberal Party.
I don’t intend to hold my breath waiting.
Tom (119 and 140),
The ALP builds freeways too – and a good thing it is too!
You seem determined to discuss the consequences of a Labor victory in 1961. Had Arthur Calwell won, he may have had a one-seat majority like Robert Menzies, and he would have faced a hostile Senate. He may therefore have called an early election to increase his House majority, thus putting the House and Senate out of synch, or he may have called a double dissolution election, the lower quota in which would have led to even more DLP senators being elected. The DLP was the centre party of the era, between the Liberals on the right and Labor on the left, so it was well positioned to capture votes from either, just as the Democrats were decades later.
Had Don Chipp not formed the Democrats, the DLP would have remained the party in the centre and it is even possible that won a Senate seat in 1977 in Victoria. Its vote increased from 1975. Who knows? We can play ‘what if ‘ games forever.
Had John Cain snr not expelled the later DLP ministers form Cabinet or had those later DLP MPs not voted no confidence in the Cain Government, there might have been no Split and thus no DLP. Who knows?
And over here in the West we get not one word in the weekend press about Rugby League or Union – just incessant fatuous nonsense about AFL, a game as significant on a global basis as tiddlewinks.
Better we stick to politics.
Notice that Rudd on the World stage, is not treated as a Deputy Sherrif but with respect.
Yeah, Gary. Not. RE BB’s main post & your response:
When the aging, seriously sleep-deprived brain gets over last night’s cheering, laughing & reading aloud The G & Beeb commentators’ Pythonesque self-flagellation, I’ll reply to this topic & Pegasus’s; but, in short, Libs are still in the anger and/or denial stages of relevance deprivation syndromeand, if Greiner’s & Kennett’s losses are any indication, will stay there at least until their second election loss.
OK, Whitlam’s cheer squad did anger (in fact ANGER) and enough denial to let Gough stand again; but it regrouped fast and far enough to take advantage of Fraser’s diminished legitimacy and, in retrospect, two dreadful decisions, picking Howard as Treasurer, and creating the Painters & Dockers RC (probably at the union-basher’s urging. Fraser was man enough to admit to those mistakes – though he & Gough (& their supporters) will always differ on 1975. I don’t remember too much anger over the Hawke victory; possibly because of Fraser’s errors and Hawke’s famous charisma. Keating was furious for years after 1996, and paid a huge personal price, especially since most of his party & supporters knew that his personality was the problem.
Howard’s hold on power was never strong, and only the very risky ALP decision to make Latham leader (the reason I heard most frequently was that if Hawke could swear off grog, Latham could off aggro) changed that. But Howard (failed Treasurer, failed Oppo leader 87, intensely disliked by his own party) played politics, not by trad Australian, or even trad Oz Liberal rules, but by different ones, especially cult of personality politics beyond we’d seen even from Whitlam & Hawke (both of whom were widely regarded by the general public as well as in their own party) at the time Cheney, Rove, Buchanan & Co decided that they would create ways of making the GOP unbeatable. Not only did the Libs adopt them – inc. Tax cuts & welfare for the rich, culture wars, propaganda the Joe Goebells would applaud, tactics to activate tradies and the RW evangelical religious vote – their media cheerleaders imported eds, promoted journos to make Liberals unbeatable. I won’t repeat the tactical episodes; we all know them.
We know Howard alienated, even removed, traditional liberals like Fraser & Cheney. The well-educated, arts-friendly, socially-responsible, well-heeled – long the Liberals’ core constituency – retreated, and devoted their fundraising efforts to more worthy causes, waiting for another Menzies, Holt … Malcolm was their Great White Hope.
The more intelligent Liberals, having taken notice of USA trends, esp Election 06’s results and GOP’s falling popularity, and of the Sub-prime crisis’s possible repercussions, began to batten-down, moving & securing financial & political capital – Liberals’ 07 campaign was cash-strapped as ever more big backers drifted away; however Howard’s Liberals & their tacticians’ and MSM backers didn’t, until their house of cards came tumbling down in late winter 08. Since then, their Great White Hope did himself, the party & its MSM backers a very nasty injury they knew killed off any hope of a 2010 victory.
So, BB, Gary, to get to the conclusion ask yourself why your friends are so angry and bitter; if they’re your friends, they might need to talk when they reach that stage of grieving (as one with a dear but rusted-on Tory sibling+ kids, OH & family, I’m on the receiving end of long silent bouts)
* Did they, Under Howard’s generous new provisions, pay all available money into super funds, especially through financiers who played silly bu#gers with their money and went broke; risky investments like ABC learning, Storm and others that were crushed under huge debt; non-bank financing that Rudd didn’t guarantee? Worse still, did they sell out off, or borrow against, more secure investments (inc family homes) to pour into super funds?
* Did they buy the GOP-inspired “Liberals will rule forever” meme? Did they buy the personality cult, the unbeatable leader? If so, is their loyalty so strong that they see his assassination as PM & parliamentarian as akin to Cæsar’s assassination?
* Did they buy the MSM’s “Australia will never vote for Rudd” meme?
Chris,
“If” starts every post by Tom. It’s his way of sidelining the reality of what actually happened or an excuse to engage in a flight of whimsical speculation about the prsopects of the Greens.
260
What an immature chap you are. The other reasons you go on to state on debt etc demonstrate a very shallow thinking process. Grown ups know that debt isn’t bad in and of itself. And those more familiar with economic cycles understand that responsible governments save money during the good times (e.g. Hawke in the 80s) and spend it in the not so good times (e.g. Rudd now).
I can only assume that Liberals like yourself would have increased taxes and decreased expenditure in the last budget. Even a 10 yo could tell that would jack up unemployment. Is there some reason that Tories are opposed to Australians having jobs jobs jobs?
Tres amusing that you demonstrate the immaturity and emotional blathering in spades which you happily accuse the Left of. Keep up the top work, Pat old son.
271
I’m locking myself in my room and never coming out. *LOL*
Mature people tend to evaluate circumstances and make an informed decision based on the best option at the time. Neither political party is perfect, so wouldn’t a rational person make a case by case decision?
Perhaps you could let me know your thinking when you’re finished chucking a tanty.
And the lead story on “Their ABC” is:
[The Federal Opposition says Australia's relationship with China has fractured over the detention of an Australian mining executive.
Senior Rio Tinto employee Stern Hu is being held without charge in Shanghai on suspicion that he stole state secrets and tried to bribe staff at local Chinese steel companies.
The Federal Government has expressed frustration that China has given it little information and that consular officials were blocked from visiting Mr Hu for almost a week.
Australian consular staff met Mr Hu in Shanghai yesterday, saying he appeared well and raised no health or welfare issues during the meeting.
But Opposition foreign affairs spokeswoman Julie Bishop has told ABC1's Insiders it is an issue for Government ministers, not diplomats, to handle.
"So far, the Australian ministers as far as we are aware have not even picked up the phone to their counterpart ministers and raised this issue," she said.
"There appears to be a major fracture in the relationship between Canberra and Beijing. There's been a lack of cooperation, no response to numerous requests for information and no info coming from Beijing.
"Our Foreign Minister Stephen Smith has been reduced to scouring Chinese Government websites to find out information on Mr Hu.
"Mr Rudd claims to have a special relationship with China - what benefit is this Australian citizen getting from that so-called special relationship?"
Ms Bishop says the situation reflects a broader problem with relations between Canberra and Beijing.
"I don't think these events occur in isolation," she said.
"I think this may well have been a build up of concerns on the part of China about the way the Australian Government has been treating China.
"We know they are deeply troubled by the Government's [Defence] white paper, we know they were deeply insulted by Mr Rudd’s raising of the human rights issues in Tibet.”]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/12/2623361.htm
And in typical keeping with Paddys usual liberal line, he cannot name specific causes for his dislike of Rudd – just peddle out the standard generic line. But because the libs say Rudd’s no good, then it must be true. Poor Paddy doesn’t seem to be able to reason why (or, shock, horror – why not) on his own, just blindly follow the lib line. Now all you lemmings, follow Malcolm, he wouldn’t lead you astray…
Tom.
Today is the first day in 3(THREE) weeks that my house has been M/inlaw free. Every hour, every day, a “concern” has been pointed out to me for 20+ days straight…in my house.
I hear you brother, I hear you
Patrick Fogarty
Mr Rudd has returned to employees some of the workplace conditions stolen from them by the Coalition. If you’re in the workforce, or have children / grandchildren who are, I’d have thought you would be grateful.
That is, of course, unless you’d prefer to not have have those rights and / or your offspring not have them?
FS @ 280. There’s usually nothing in Rugby League to report about. Well not about the actual game anyway!
In the AFL you had two undefeated teams after 13 rounds clashing for the first time in the history of either code. And not a word about it in the MSM!
As for Rugby League being a global game? Please, I’d rather argue with Squiggle and PF.
Err, OzPol Tragic, I’m not sure why you are lumping me in with this “friends angry thingy”. My response to it was “So what They are only conservative rusted ons saying they hate Rudd” and, by the way, I didn’t say I had such friends.
The point I’m making Centre, is it’s not a plot, it’s what the punters want, or are perceived to want by the msm.
It’s OK to be parochial if you live in the parish. It’s too bad if you don’t.
Well PF, you are in the small minority. 70%+ of voters find Rudd trustworthy and likeable. Be prepared to suffer your delusions for a long time.
OzPol Tragic – on second reading I see where you are coming from. Clever posting.
Nice one Fulvio
Meanwhile Julie is getting her claws out for Abbott, can you feel the love, fsssttt.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/abbott-plugs-faultbased-divorce-option-20090712-dh2o.html
GG
I think Abbott just does not want a repeat of 98.
The ABC, “Insiders”, Milne, Akerman etc do their damndest to put people off Rudd. Just take one look at the opinion polls and ask this question – how well is it working for them? Then don’t worry about it.
OzPol Tragic (142),
1. There is no doubt that the DLP senators would have voted against the Liberals’ IR polices, both versions too, unlike the Democrats:
the Liberals wanted AWAs – not DLP policy;
the Liberals wanted a minimum of 4 hours pay docked for work ban – not DLP policy;
the Liberals wanted the end of the Conciliation and Arbitration system – not DLP policy.
A quote from the DLP’s IR policy-
“”Union organisation as such should not be weakened by legislation, not merely because unions are the expression of the basic right of wage earners, but also because they are the necessary foundation of the conciliation and arbitration system.”
Brian Harradine is the best example of what the DLP senators would have done, and he voted against both lots of Liberal IR policies.
Vince Gair refused to implement ALP policy on three weeks annual leave, and this was used to expel him and nine of his ten Cabinet members form the ALP. The real issue, however, was payback for Queensland delegates’ boycotting the illegal 1955 ALP Conference. Had he been Anna Bligh or Morris Iemma 50 years later, nothing would have happened to him for going against ALP policy. That is a telling example of how the ALP has changed.
If the FCU was so bad, its members could always have elected a different leadership.
2. Your comment “fancy believing in things when you don’t know their origin” makes no sense. I do not know what thing whose origin I do not know I am supposed to have believed in.
3. The Democrats were right wing – they voted for the first lot of Liberal IR policies. Family First is right wing. The Republicans of the US are right wing. I have given a long quotation of many left-wing statements from the DLP. Then there is their voting record in the senate, with a fairly even split between supporting Labor and supporting the Coalition.
4. I have no idea if the extract re the NCC still applies. I do not see the connection. I am giving evidence that the DLP of the past was a moderately left-wing social democratic party.
Your suggestion that the DLP might ally itself with Australia First is ridiculous. The DLP was the first party to oppose the White Australia policy.
Putting FF ahead of the DLP is your right. To me, that is just like saying putting FF ahead of the Democrats is your right. But, if you really would put the DLP last, behind the Socialist Equity Party, the Nazis, the CPA and the like, you have a serious misunderstanding of which parties are democratic and which are not.
I am not saying anything was a plot Fulvio. The Lions draw the same crowd numbers as the Broncos, yet attract no MSM coverage. If the Western Sydney franchise becomes a success, the AFL will no longer be able to be ignored.
I grew up following Leage and I still do. But now, that the game is owned by News Ltd, I call it as it is!
I posted a piece last week relating to the media’s inability to understands Rudd’s success, if you haven’t read it, it’s here:
http://www.ozforums.com.au/viewtopic.php?id=5832
Greensborough (283),
Don’t be too harsh on Tom. When I was young DLP candidate (for Greensborough too, though I guess you didn’t vote for me), I used to think ‘if’ a lot, but it was not to be. The Greens will be a third party for a while yet, just as the DLP and the Democrats once were. Let him dream and hope.
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