The first Roy Morgan face-to-face poll to catch the full force of the OzCar aftermath shows Labor’s two-party lead up from 55-45 to 58-42. Conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 1190 (smaller than usual from a poll covering two weeks), it has Labor up 0.5 per cent on the primary vote to 46.5 per cent and the Coalition down a sharp four points to 35 per cent. The slack has been taken up by the Greens, up 3.5 per cent to 11.5 per cent.
Here’s an incomplete sampling of the past week’s action. This site’s normal energy levels will resume in about a week or so.
• Monday’s weekly Essential Research survey had Labor’s two-party lead up from 58-42 to 59-41. Supplementary questions showed a spike in confidence in the economy, but a somewhat paradoxical increase in concern about employment; Joe Hockey favoured over Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader by 17 per cent to 13 per cent; and the Labor Party viewed more favourably than the Liberals on 11 separate measures.
• The South Australian Liberals have a new leader in Heysen MP Isobel Redmond. Redmond succeeds Waite MP Martin Hamilton-Smith, who was mortally wounded after accusing the government of doing favours for an organisation linked to the Church of Scientology using what proved to be faked emails. Hamilton-Smith called an initial spill last Friday after Mackillop MP Mitch Williams quit the shadow ministry, which was universally interpreted as an attempt to undermine Hamilton-Smith ahead of a future pitch for his job. However, Williams declined to put his name forward at the ensuing spill, at which the sole rival nominee was deputy leader and Bragg MP Vickie Chapman. After inital expectations he would comfortably survive, Hamilton-Smith emerged from the vote without the support of a party room majority: while he won the vote 11 to 10, one member had abstained. Hamilton-Smith called another spill to clear the air, but when Redmond (who had been newly elected in place of Chapman as deputy) said she would put her name forward he announced he would stand aside. The result was a three-way tussle between Redmond, Chapman and Williams, in which Redmond defeated Chapman by 13 votes to nine after Williams was excluded in the first round. Goyder MP Steven Griffiths won the vote for deputy ahead of Williams by eight votes to six (since only lower house MPs get to vote for the deputy, whereas members from both houses have a vote for the leadership).
• Antony Green crunches some electoral numbers to conclude that, contrary to widespread belief, Labor’s position in the Senate would be better if the next election were for half the chamber in the normal fashion, rather than a double dissolution.
• Against his better judgement, Peter Brent at Mumble enters the world of blogdom. He’s also written a piece on Inside Story which delivers on what I emptily promised a few weeks back, namely to review the report of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters report into the 2007 election.
681 Comments
Pages: « 1 … 7 8 [9] 10 11 … 14 » Show All
Boerwar
Very nice summary.
They didn’t arrest an Australian, they arrested a lot of people. This is bigger than Rudd. Like it or not China is a very unstable country. To date the behavior of “The Australian” has done considerable damage to “The Australian”, they are now getting to the stage where they are doing considerable damage to our national interest. They are putting political pressure on the government to do stupid thing. They are printing rubbish.
It’s a great pity our international reputation was so sullied by Howard, and the USA by Bush, but we have to live with it.
Hu may or may not be guilty, he may or may not spend some time in jail ( being china he may get shot). A much bigger worry for Australian is the political instability that underlies this. Economically it is not a good time for China to be going through or fighting a revolution.
I think Adam wrote a good line the other day.
The power of democracy is it’s ability to run a revolution without bloodshed. Yes some democracies had/have governments that ignored international law, but almost to a man the coalition of the willing have been chucked out of power by their citizens.
China does not have that safety valve, and that is the weakness of non democratic countries.
Hey zooms,
First, I’d like to state I have no horse in this race. But your argument seems to ignore ideology and the existence of a political spectrum, and have a bit of the not-seeing-wood-for-the-trees about it.
If, over a longer period, votes have been moving from Lib to Lab, and over a longer period still, the Greens have been growing, that indicates to me a bit of a steady leftward ho. On the face of it, your argument assumes that there are a lot of ungrounded mugs out there. Which of course there may be, but the stability of the Australian system suggests otherwise. And I have no figures here, but doesn’t something like 3/4s of the Green vote go back to the ALP?
In any case, both of your lots have Libs and ex-Libs among you (insert Nelson Muntz laugh). Hence the being in Government and growing stuff.
What an utter pile of crap. Why some people continue to work in gross swings rather than net swings is beyond me…
GG
The pile-on continues. Penny Wong is struggling with her Water and CC portfolios and desperately needs to be relieved of Water, which requires someone in charge who can make a decision, perhaps Greg Combet. Half of the water allowances she has bought back won’t put any water back in the Murray except in flood years, and the NSW and Vic governments continue to ignore her as an irrelevance.
It must be humiliating to Wong to have Mike Rann taking the Vics to the High Court and highlighting that Wong is NOT in charge of the MDB, despite all the announcements that she is after interminable meetings.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25770182-5006301,00.html
I want to know what fingers she has in the pie.
Why is this sentence ungrammatical? (Typical News Ltd, can’t even write proper English, let alone tell the truth.)
An encouraging summary article by Ross Gittins in the SMH on the recession we aren’t really having:
http://business.smh.com.au/business/this-recession-isnt-looking-as-bad-as-we-feared-20090712-dhd2.html
If these figures continue the number on Turnbul’s debt truck will wind up looking more inflated than his ego. No wonder he needs to provoke a trade war with China. There seems almost no hope the people will be dissappointed with the government’s performance otherwise.
Barlow is a famous water expert (Mrs D used her book, Blue Covenant for her essay). I’m pretty sure she is American. It would add more to the debate to read the article to criticising the illiterate News journos or questioning her motives.
This comes from the article she wrote. The whole article is pretty damning.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25770220-2682,00.html
Digenes,
Your compatriots don’t seem to agree. They’re giving the Federal Labor a big tick over there in SA land.
I agree with Dio on Barlow and the Murray. In hindsight a lot of people within govt (not just politicians) are guilty on this one. I remember reading years ago a lot of ABARE analysis on what crops got farmers the best $ return per hectare. But that is the wrong sum – it assumes we are short of land, not water. The real sum should have been how much water could be allocated without long term environmental damage and what crops gave farmers the best $ return per litre of water. We have wasted a lot of money building more irrigations schemes than can be supplied with water. ABARE is a captive stakeholder and has been for a long time.
GG
Here in Adelaide I would offer some personal observations: Fed and State govt policy is working for most people. Projects like the defence base and schools work are underpinning employment (still growing) and they are supporting electrification of the railways after Howard refused to include public transport in Auslink. Adelaide’s economy is basically doing OK now, probably better than it was in the stagnant 1990s. Employment is growing. Our firm still hired extra new graduates this January. House prices never spiked as high here as interstate in the first place, so they have’t really fallen since, just held steady. The biggest threat is water supply, but the State is building the desal plant and Rudd is supplying half the cash. Plus the State opposition was run by a moron. No wonder the govt is being perceived well.
It’s not the “commentators” demanding action. It’s “expectations”. Milne this morning:
Expectations as to what, and by whom? I smell another OO bootstrapper in the making.
A man has been arrested for alleged corruption. It may or may not have something to do with a failed deal, and/or government intervention in it…. from either side, China or Australia, or both. It may be a simple case of criminal activity. Yes, Chinese laws are often enforced randomly. No, China is not a democracy. Yes, the man is still in custody. No, Rudd hasn’t done anything publicly about it yet. Yes, confusion reigns, mostly because the incident is only about a week old.
Milne lists a long litany of “failed” diplomacy, alleged spin, deception of the voters, supposed corruption etc. etc. Most of the anti-Rudd-on-China theses from the past get a run: Mandarin speaking, forgetting to go to Japan first before China, advocating for China to be part of discussions on the GFC in New York, the Defence White Paper, refusing to sit next to Madame Fu Ying in London, Joel Fitzgibbon, the APEC speech, the phone chat with George Bush… they’re all now put into context by the master journalist, Milne, a cut above his peers (unless the grubby story is his leak, and then it’s gangbusters).
I’m bewildered why Rudd hasn’t appointed Milne as a roving ambassador to China, or onto the government’s ethics committee, or even as his press secretary. The man seems to have a Rudd Blunder to hand for every situation.
What would little Glen have us do? Go to war? Send in the SAS? Break off diplomatic relations? Refuse to trade with China? Rudd resign in disgrace? Walk up to President Hu and job him one? (a Milne specialty).
Again at the OO it’s Kevin Rudd in Blunderama, Spin-O-Vision and Super Pana-Gotcha-Scope. Milne’s article does not make one concrete suggestion, prefering to lay on the hatred thick, with a trowel, Milne’s curled neurotic lip dredging up all the furphies from the past as if they were real, which they probably are in his tiny mind.
These experts in international relations at the OO know that China is a different place to Australia. They do things differently there. They do not use Miranda rights or the Judges’ Rules in the apprehension of suspected criminals. They do not have a quick magistrate’s hearing followed by nominal bail and release the prisoner. Yes, their economic policies are mixed up with politics and state security. If anyone should know this it’s Murdoch employees, who have been kow-towing to China for a couple of decades now.
But, so what?
We take it step by step, one day at a a time, preferably without the sniggering from the sidelines, especially the smartar$ed comments from the likes of the pimple, Milne.
Dio at #408
I think Barlow is Canadian.
She was on Radio National some time ago with John Quiggin and someone else.
Spoke a lot of sense.
I think the programme was Australia all over, a few months ago , there may be a transcript available.
Socrates,
Thanks for the local perspective which is always interesting. However, voters have the ability to separate the Federal and State scene in their judgements. (See NSW for corroboration). The 5% swing to the Feds must be indicative of broad support for Rudd and Co and by extension the various efforts and decisions made by the Federal Government including Wong.
Diogenes rants and raves about Wong all the time. However, the evidence seems to be that voter support is inversely proportional to the amount of whingeing about Wong and her performance as Climate Change and Water Minister.
Yeah well I was close. Sort of.
ABC Rdio National “In the National Interest.” Nov. ‘08
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/nationalinterest/stories/2008/2426405.htm
Worth a listen.
Dunno if they have transcripts.
They have.
Transcripts that is.
Here is some from maude, who was the best of the panel.
“One of the problems with water is that it has not been managed. We have not seen it as something that’s collectively ours, not only to use, to access as a commons, but that we need to have collective control over, and the less water you have – and you don’t have a lot of water in this country left – the more important it is to take public control to say that water is a public trust, it belongs to all Australians, it belongs to future generations, it belongs to the ecosystem and anyone who accesses it must be paying for it only in a way that’s done sustainably.”
And here is the crux:
“Who is making the decisions here around this precious water? The people of Australia are in charge and you guys have got to take over!”
APPLAUSE
GG
I agree with Dio on the water issue; but I don’t think the water issue, though serious, has really impacted on most urban people here yet. Also I think the biggest villain in the water problem is Victoria, not Canberra. So yes overall Rudd is doing a good job here, but that doesn’t give Wong a free pass on her portfolio.
GG
1. There is no evidence that the people of SA support Wong on Water.
2. Even if they did, the people can be WrONG.
The people of SA are the last people competent to judge Wong’s performance. SA wants other people’s water at no cost to themselves. SA should stop taking water out of the Murray, and drink recycled sewage and desal water. If they can’t bring themselves to do that, they should move to Qld.
Trolling psephos?
Does it even need to be asked fredex?
Psephos
The SA government has just passed planning regulations that will make water recycling and stormwater reuse mandatory on new subdivisions. You must know that SA takes far less out of the Murray than historical/natural drainage patterns would have seen happen anyway. The mismanagement of the Murray occurs long before the remaining trickle dribbles across the SA border. But assuming you are just winding us up, why don’t you by a NSW or Qld cotton farm, and see how sustainable that is.
So, anyone opposed to Greens’ doctrine is now a troll as well as a Labor hack?
You’re saying that Psephos’ remark was not a stupid trolling remark but was meant to be a serious and thoughtful contribution to discussion?
400
My statement is a reply to 451 (as it mentions) and is about the Fremantle by-election. That by-election was before the ute-Ozcar-email-Grech mess. There is no proof for the claim, argued by the Green down shooters on this site, that the approximate sameness of the ALP vote at that election, compaired to the previous election, meant that it was almost entirely the same voters who voted ALP in both elections. Since where the Greens get ahead of the Liberals, many Liberal voters ignore the Liberal Party`s recommendations to preference the Greens and preference the ALP (evidence for this is in the election results for the ALP versus Green seats in Victoria), it is fair to assume that those same people would vote for the ALP (either on primaries or preferences) in a ALP versus Green contest where there is no Liberal Party candidate.
I approve of these measures. My comments were aimed more at Xenophontic populism than the SA government, although Rann doesn’t mind a bit of populism when it suits him.
Not sure what that means. Last time I checked there were two major pipelines from the Murray to Adelaide, and one to Whyalla. Plus the whole Riverland irrigation area lives off the Murray.
I’m favour of shutting down most irrigation in the MDB – it’s dying anyway. That won’t help the Lower Lakes much, because most of it evaporates along the way. What SA needs is (a) rain in SA and (b) not piping water to Adelaide.
The SA’s are always very parochial with their views regarding progress on the management of the MDB. I agree with psephos that they are hardly an unbiased or rational source of information. I have already pointed out that the more hysterical claims that are often made from our Greens supporting PBers in SA regarding Labor Governmennts and personalities don’t seem to be backed up by the only unbiased measurement tool (ie the polls) we have at our disposal. This of course, has been discounted by the ranters.
Reasoned discussion will always be impossible with Greens supporters as they disregard any evidence that upsets their alarmist outlook on the world.
We are building a big desal plant so we don’t have to drink Murray water.
If our federation was fair, the federal government should’ve paid for all the costs of the desal plant as compensation for the state the lower lakes are in.
Is this official Labor Party policy or is it just another way of dismissing an argument that shows how poorly Labor is performing on Water, as this issue creates such horrendous cognitive dissonance amongst Labor hacks that it has to be dismissed somehow?
The state the Lower Lakes is in is SA, and if SA wants to have nice lakes, it should stop taking water out of the Murray. Shutting down irrigation up stream won’t make much difference, because most of the water in the northern tributaries evaporates long before it reaches SA. Australia has one of the highest river evaporation rates in the world – which was why the Murray never had a proper estuary in the first place.
Of course it’s not Labor policy, which shows that I don’t just recite Labor policy here, but come up with brilliant ideas of my own, like the above cited. If everyone listened to me, the world would be a better place – except the bits I think should be nuked of course.
Psephos
“My comments were aimed more at Xenophontic populism than the SA government, although Rann doesn’t mind a bit of populism when it suits him.”
Fair enough; I don’t support either of those either.
“Not sure what that means. Last time I checked there were two major pipelines from the Murray to Adelaide, and one to Whyalla. Plus the whole Riverland irrigation area lives off the Murray.”
Natural flows means that water from the Murray woudl naturally flow into SA at a certain rate, and not all of it reachs the sea. SA doesn’t take out much more than that loss. The whole of Adelaide’s water supply take from the Murray is less than six large cotton properties near Deniliquin. I wouldn’t defend everything SA does with the Murray, especially the pipeline to Whyalla (which was a Commonwealth bright idea back in the Menzies era I think), but really, the main problem is over allocation in NSW and Victoria.
The Riverland is over-irrigated, but not so much for the part of it in SA. They have done a lot of conservation measures, drip irrigation etc. Yet they get virtually no allocation anyway. This area is also an example of a place which would naturally get a lot of Murray naturall flows if we still allowed teh river to flood as it once did (overland flow) but we stop that with a heap of weirs and dams upstream.
Your comment on MDB irrigation is generally valid (although I think limited and localised irrigation as listed above woudl not be a problem), but the lower lakes would be a lot more saveable than people assume with less over allocation. The faster and higher the Murray flows, the less % evaporation. So the lower lakes would be fine if overall flows were reasonable. Current practices make the impact of evaporation worse.
Mike Young’s website is an excellent source on this issue:
http://www.myoung.net.au/water/
Socrates
“the remaining trickle dribbles across the SA border.”
You know Socrates it really wouldn’t take that much to take a trip to the border and see how silly that statement is. The irrigation system after the South Australian border is large, too large to be sustainable.
The allocation was 18% last year, at this stage it’s 2% next year. If we don’t have good rain on the Victorian and NSW alps this winter it’s crunch time. Lower lakes be dammed, there is no water left in the Victorian and NSW dams to keep the NSW, Victorian or South Australian Irrigation system running, like it or not preference will be given to keeping the cities going. Winging won’t change the facts.
Water trading has created problems but it has created a tidy way to close the system down, things that survive will be things that can afford to pay for the water. Don’t be under any illusions water from the MDB is going to get very expensive. There is in my view only one negative to the current situation, there should be no limit to water trade between areas. I suspect it would stop irrigation below Renmark very quickly, the water loss is too great and the delivered water too salty. But it needs to happen, the sooner the better.
The agreement between the states was never a secret, if you build a irrigation farm in South Australia you shouldn’t have built it expecting the states that supply the water to close down their irrigation systems first, or to let their capitals die first.
Try and be a little bit realistic.
The opposition is so confused about the Hu situation. After complaining that Rudd is so close to China, they now say he’s not close enough. After complaining that Hu’s human rights werent being respected, they criticise the government for bringing up Tibet. What’s most worrying is their blatant disregard for the relationship with China and the potential damage it may cause, not to mention their rush to judgement without information, so desparate are they to lay a glove on the government.
My wife who is very politically disinterested heard a bit of Memseralda on Insiders yesterday and remarked about the damage her remarks and attitude may cause. I’m not suggesting that the public is necessarily going to care, but its interesting that she noticed. Have we ever had an opposition that has reacted so hysterically to virtually every issue?? I appreciate that they are desparate as they are the worst performing opposition poll-wise (I gather) but they really lack leadership and political judgement.
That may be so, but Mannum and Murray Bridge, and even Renmark and Berri, are much closer to the Lakes than Deniliquin, so water taken from the Murray at those points takes more from the Lakes. Water saved at Deniliquin will have mostly eveporated before it gets to the lower Murray.
It is worrying times:
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Chinese-business-in-chains-pd20090713-TVT2N?OpenDocument&src=kgb
Apparently, Turnbull is now a “Red Tory”
” someone on the very left of a right-of-centre party. In fact, if you divide up issues into three broad categories, economic issues, social issues, and constitutional issues, then Turnbull doesn’t really even qualify as a Tory at all on two of them. His strength, indeed the only count on which he looks to be a real Tory, is when it comes to the nation’s finances”.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25768340-27197,00.html
that’s debatable
Been a long night with all the sports to be watching so I don’t know if I was awake or dreaming (after the cat licked my ear this morning to get me up to feed him and let him out) but I thought I heard on ABC news that Al Gore has said if Rudd’s ETS was passed it would be a step forward and good for the world
Hmmm, that’s wierd… I can no longer copy text from this page. Anyone else having the same problem?
I just copiedand pasted your post Dario, so no problems here
vera,
Gore’s comments could be one of those inconvenient truths for the Greens and their fellow travellers that won’t support the Government’s ETS legislation.
Ahh, working again. Well I dunno what happened, but it doesn’t really matter now anyway
How long do you think before the Greenies turn on Gore then?
GG, the Gore comments and the way Obi was treating Kev like his bestest mate in Italy won’t go down well at all
Which means we should see Brown and his mob criticising Obi and Gore for agreeing with Rudd, but I won’t hold my breath
Dario, too fast for me (it must be that superhero suit
)
My special ability is super fast fingers
By the way, I won the Toronto race today
http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/motorsport/2589258/Franchitti-wins-Toronto-Indycar-round
vera,
My guess is it will be discounted as “false conciousness” from a false prophet.
Fred 432
I admit my remark was exaggerated for effect but in fact the flow is very small. What the Murray looks like as it crosses the SA border is deceptive. The level in the Murray is largely due to a weir, and the volume of water flowing downstream is very low, despite the apparent volume. I am not a farmer and don’t particularly defend any irrigation farmer, but I do think those in SA have been shafted by some quite unreasonable water allocations upstream (in NSW and Vic). A lot of those allocations were only made in the 1980s, wheereas the Riverland has been farmed a lot longer than that. I don’t think you can blame those farmers for failing to predict the incompetence/corruption of upstrema governmetns 20 years later. What NSW and Vic are doing to SA farmers now is no fairer than what Cubby Station in Qld does to NSW farmes on the upper Darling. i.e. not fair at all.
Pages: « 1 … 7 8 [9] 10 11 … 14 » Show All