The latest Newspoll survey has Labor’s two-party lead down from 56-44 to 55-45, with Malcolm Turnbull enjoying a dead cat bounce on his personal ratings after the disaster of a fortnight ago. Turnbull’s approval rating is up six points to 31 per cent, while his disapproval is down three to 55 per cent. However, Turnbull continues to rate behind Peter Costello (36 per cent) and Joe Hockey (20 per cent) on the question of best person to lead the Liberal Party, with 16 per cent. What’s more, Essential Research finds 46 per cent believe the Liberals should find a new leader against only 29 per cent who want Turnbull remain. Essential Research otherwise shows a modest improvement for the Coalition, with Labor’s two-party lead down from 59-41 to 57-43. Also featured are questions on the “most important action” of the Rudd government so far (action on the global financial crisis leads a crowded field), opinions on the government’s income tax cuts (positive) and a somewhat obscure question on education policy.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Newspoll: 55-45
Copyright © 2008 Private Media Pty Ltd, Publishers of Crikey.com.au. All Rights Reserved.
Independent news, blogs and commentary on politics, media and business.
Editor: Jonathan Green.
Publishers: Eric Beecher, Diana Gribble.
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763 Comments
[Test] Cricket is like ….. (Old Thread)
Clanking across the bridge’ wooden planks, swishing a gladius, assessing the Tuscan horde as you take your mark, your acute ear hearing axes hitting wooden bridge piles …
Picking up your pack in the cold evening rain to follow General Lord Arthur I am masterly in retreat Wellesley as he secretly shifts his army to a place and time that he and they will decide is best for the battle and their revere slope defence tactic (instead of being caught in it themselves in the position they’re quitting) quietly humming Le Grande Armès’s anthem, knowing that, when the French spies “go over the mountain to see what they can see” they’ll find “the other side of the mountain is all that they can see.” …. If there’s one thing Old Duro learned during his hated years at Eton, it was that the Fabian Strategy might cost you the battle, but it wins you the war. Kids still sing those words to that same French anthem (enjoy Beethoven’s “Wellington’s Victory Overture” ….
Standing in squares in fields near the village of Waterloo, squinting at Ney’s magnificent cavalry as lances fall into spearing position, knowing you and Old Duro can beat them too, if only you keep your nerve and hold the square …
Flying Spits & Hurricanes over London …
Being in London buses & tubes on 7 July 2005 … We greet initial reports of “panic in London” with total scorn. If anyone was panciking it wouldn’t be a Pom …
Praying for rain, and using every possible delaying tactic in Cardiff …
[Legally] bowling underarm to the Kiwis …
And copping it on the chin, Punter, even if you’re bleeding inside!
That’s what [Test] Cricket is …
Newspoll pretty much “steady as she goes”. TheOz’s coverage proves how hypocritical i is for any of their hacks to accuse Rudd of spin.
BTW: Waaaaaaa, Bludger! This is the 3rd new thread in a row that’s been posted while I’m composing!
Interesting that only 29% want Turnbull to remain as leader, while 31% support the job he is doing. I guess those 31% really are the rusted-on Liberal supporters. When you consider that, the 16% preference for Turnbull vs Costello or Hockey shows that at best half of the rusted on Liberals actually like Turnbull. And even that assumes nobody else outside the Liberals likes him. He is a dead parrott.
Will MT’s green shoots of recovery turn out to be onion weed to be killed off by the “Roundup” of the AFP’s report on the OZcar fake email due at the end of the month?
Dennis up to his old tricks again:
Heh.
Al Gore has come out in support of pasing the governments CPRS, saying that passing it before Copenhagen is “important” even while acknowledging its flaws.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/13/2624681.htm
I found Gore’s comments a pretty balanced view. He doesn’t pretend the CPRS is perfect, and was even honest enough to express (valid) skepticism about “clean coal” technology. Yet he still thinks it is important to pass the CPRS. The Greens should consider this, although with Liberals plus Fielding against it, it would be dead anyway.
If this bill fails in the Senate now, I think it would be a legitimate DD trigger, as this was a core promise at the last election.
I note Possum’s analysis showing that Labor was better off with a half rather than full senate election. What is the earliest date an election could be called that would be able to include a half Senate vote?
Anyone found the Newspoll PDF yet?
People seem to forget that:
* Mr. Hu is not a public servant. he is a private citizen employed by an MNC.
* He is negotiating and cutting business deals for the benefits of an MNC.
* He is not acting for Australian people, its Govt or its agencies.
* He has been put up there on a pedestal as if he is acting directly for the national benefits of Australia and its interests. I am yet to see an MNC which has the national benefits of any country at heart. It’s purely in there for making money, profits, and lowest costs. It has NO loyalty or allegiance to any country or national interest.
* When you do business overseas, you must do and understand what is called the Country Risk. And each country is different from another.
* And country risk is evolving all the time, for example: For the Educational sector here in Australia, our Country Risk is student safety at the moment. That wasn’t on the radar before, but it is now.
I am sick and tired of watching Mesma’s accusation that the Govt has been “pussy footing”. From what I heard, she wasn’t too bad at some “pussy and footing” herself.
Socrates,
That was Antony.
I don’t play with the Senate.
Sorry Poss. Any knowledge of Senate rules and dates?
Finns
I agree. Wasn’t there a case of an Aussie businessman (James Peng) jailed in China for several years during the Howard years? I also recall similar incidents in India. So this isn’t a first and it probably won’t be a last time either.
Bring on the Sunrise election!
Turnbull looks like heading to a rout – Possum only has to be half right on his projections, and it is still terrible for the Libs.
Sloppy Joe should time his ascendency for a coupla months before the election… just long enough to stave off complete disaster, and not long enough for the masses to work out what a complete git he is…
Jennifer Hewitt takes the Milne Line:
If you can’t get Rudd for going to strip clubs, knowing Brian Burke, growing up in Eumundie, Long Tan, his fat wife, driving a crony ute, misleading Parliament, plunging us into debt, Fuelwatch, Grocery Watch, being a nerd, being too dinklum Aussie, being a nerd again, insulting hosties, upsetting his staff, religious hypocrisy, taking overseas junkets, betraying George Bush’s confidences, strutting the world Stage, pork-barreling, living in a coccoon of spin, speaking Mandarin, and being too friendly with China… then get him for being so close to China that it’s not only affecting Stern Hu’s freedom, but could well bring down the entire Australian economy.
And he’s a toxic bore to boot.
It’s a Scandals-R-Us, a new one every week. The people are out with their torches and pitchforks, lusting for the Monster’s blood. The Australian says so. Having forsaken attacking Rudd’s alleged weaknesses, the Ltd News gurus are attacking his strengths. He is a toxic bore who lamely tries to be Bazza McKenzie and then he speaks Wonk again. In international relations he betrays Presidential confidences, arrogantly struts where he should not be, is two-faced on climate Change and then takes it out on junior staff when they don’t have pickled tofu on the menu ready for him. If he doesn’t ruin the country with debt and deficit over a Global Financial Crisis that probably doesn’t exist, this man Rudd will single-handedly ruin the country’s chances of recovering from it with his arrogance and hostility to China which is different from when he was going to ruin us with his empathy and closeness to China.
It’s a total mess. The best thing we should do is put Peter Costello in, or Joe Hockey, or Tony Abbott, or Julie Bishop, oh yes, and maybe Malcolm Turnbull, who would personally take the Big Stick to those Commie Asians and teach them a lesson or two about messing with White Men. Who needs their trade? We’ll always have Japan… except Rudd’s ruined that too by snubbing them… It’s hopeless.
As Jennifer Hewitt puts it, “Lose, lose, lose.”
Now there’s an insightful analysis for you.
I just can’t figure out why the Liberals are starting to think they might not win the next election.
And on another note, looks like victory is complete and utter in the pollwars.
Shazza:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25778612-5013871,00.html
Socrates,
The earliest possible House+Half Senate election date is 7th August 2010.
Soc – as i have posted many many times previously. In Asia, ALL of Asia, it is a myth to think that there is a Rule of Law.
The Asian system – social, cultural, economic and politically, operates very much on the Rule of Power. Still is, unfortunately.
I am afraid the Western businessmen and women have been reading too many Lost Horizon type books with mythical the Shangri-La and stay in the Shangri-La Hotel chain.
Btw: there was a case few years ago of a japanese national, a woman, who was very badly treated by our court system here and it was in Melbourne. maybe some PBs here can recall the case.
Newspoll PDF.
http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/0703%20Fed%20&%20Leadership.pdf
Turnbull’s satisfaction may be up 6% but his dissatisfaction is only down 3%.
Socrates
There are some good letters to the Editor of the OO about Rudd’s Fantasy Camp solution to Climate Change, ie Clean Coal. The Professor of Environmental Chemistry is particularly good. He points out that CCS will struggle to overcome Boyle’s Law and end up losing to the Second Law of Entropy.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php/theaustralian/comments/its_objectives_cant_be_realised_at_an_economic_cost/
Bob @ 7. Newspoll stats tend to come up to a day or so later.
The Finns @ 8 & 15. Indeed! And China shoots those who commit what many of us would regard as quite minor crimes (inc some types of theft). In public squares. Even in sight of passing foreigners (inc me); not something one should (or can) forget.
re Newspoll: Opps that’ll larn me!
Oh Dear, Howard calls for the Libs to get behind Turnbull. The only question is whether it’s to stab him in the back or push him off the cliff.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25779620-662,00.html
I love The Australian headline, “Turnbull starts to claw his way back”, and the fact that the 2PP figures are not even in the table on the front page.
GG: Turnbull is only needs a couple more liberal luminaries to express “complete confidence” in his leadership and he is finished.
ABC News Radio poll:
#
Will Malcolm Turnbull lead the Opposition to the next election?
#
Yes 61.5%
No 38.5%
http://www.abc.net.au/newsradio/
I wonder what the sample size is? Seems to be at odds with today’s Newspoll.
There will be plenty of fun over at Andrew Bolt:
‘Liberals lift – yet still gone…
‘Truth is that it’s actually a waste of time and credibility to try to make a news story about minor changes in the Newspoll figures – changes that fall even within the margin of error. Bottom line this week, as it is every week: the Liberals will get hammered, especially under Malcolm Turnbull. Nothing remotely likely will change that.’
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/liberals_lift_yet_still_gone_gone_gone/
Stand by for the “I’ve never been rung by a pollster” and the “They rang me and didn’t want to talk to me because they wanted an 18-year old” responses.
maxine,
Only 16 responses.
Hardly. Who will lead the Liberals to the next election, and who people prefer to lead the Liberals to the next election are two different things. It’s like asking who voters expect to win the next election – as opposed to which party they want to win the next election.
From the previous thread:
Hmmmm, another Shangri-La view of the world. The sectarianism & division, in the Indian cricket team, in terms of social, religious and geography (State), would make the Israelis and Palestinians look like buddy buddy.
Chris
I can’t work out what Bolt is getting at with those posts of his about Turnbull being gone. The fact that it’s true has never been a criterion for him before. Hockey seems to be the only alternative given that Cossie is out and there’s no way Hockey will step up before the next election so they’re stuck with Truffles until then.
He’s just giving Rudd free kicks in front of goal unless he’s looking at the long game after the next election.
Or maybe he’s desperately trying to get Cossie to reconsider. The Newspoll preferred Opp leader was terrible for Truffles. Cossie was 36%, Hockey 20%, Truffles 16% and Abbott 10%.
what a shame only inceases Labors majority from 84 to 97, I can live with that
oops should have said seats not majority
Bushfire Bill (12). You forgot to mention the hairdryer.
wow chris @ 24, our bloggers have educated even The Bolta
Have you posted that to Possum too!
“He points out that CCS will struggle to overcome Boyle’s Law and end up losing to the Second Law of Entropy.”
Wonderfully put, I liked the getup ad that presented clean coal as someone with a rag giving it a good dusting, that is about as good as it is going to get.
Yes, because it refuses to comply with any ICC rulings, which is anything but honouring the traditions and spirit of the game.
What traditions
beside a superior “white” attitude even in the sporting arena??
what other “traditions” are you talking about????
#35, yes Sahib, Sir!!!!
A commenter at Bolt’s Blog writes:
Once again, the forlorn hope that a single week with a couple of “we demand”s, a cacophony of OO opinionation pieces, the odd assertion that the Australia-China relationship is “in tatters”, “dead in the water”, “ruined because Rudd speaks Mandarin” etc. will turn it all around for the Libs, this coming week.
This lot remind me of a certain crowd who ruled Germany from 1933-1945, putting delusional faith in secret weapons, divisions that didn’t exist and the manifest destiny of the Party to overcome all seemingly impossible odds at the last possible moment. They thought it was all going to be turned around at the gates of Berlin. The Libs think a few soundbites consisting mainly of braying at the moon will seal Rudd’s fate forever.
They still haven’t gotten over the fact that silver bullets don’t work. All their scandals have hardly (if at all) dented the Labor government’s popularity with the voters. They really do need to be taught a very harsh lesson and it’s coming.
… and the hairdryer.
Dio 17
Thanks; I have been a skeptic about “Clean Coal” for quite a while. It would be more accurately called “slightly less filthy but now ludicrously expensive coal” technology. We still don’t know if it works in the long term. NO successful large scale pilot project is in existence after talk about it for almost ten years. Even IF it works, the basic physics of it is that you will use up almost 30% of a coal power station’s energy running the carbon capture and geosequestration machinery. It is just an excuse to avoid for a few years telling brown coal miners their jobs should be eliminated for teh safety of the rest of us and they need to train for something else.
http://www.watoday.com.au/national/poll-shows-turnbull-crawling-back-mp-says-20090714-djgi.html
Surely she doesn’t actually believe this.
Poss 14
Thanks, so 7 August 2010 should be Fielding Dismissal Day. We could probably send Fielding to Texas and raise the average IQ of both states. He would be happy with the nutters there.
Bob,
Bronwyn is following instructions from John Howard. She is clearly one of those getting right behind Turnbull!
Midday news says business confidence skyrocketting to near record highs! Well maybe not put quite as gung-ho as that (but almost
)
So is it any wonder the OO, ABC and their preferred government wants to keep the focus on anything but the economy?
Weak Rudd wrecking China relations will do nicely for now with a bit of “overrun by refugee hysteria” bubbling along on the side burner as plan B.
What’s happened to that debt ute by the way? lol Has Malcolm broke down on the Nullarbor?
The level of hysteria from the right-wing noise machine will always be higher under Labor. (sorry Finns
)
Diogenes (28),
There are persons at the Andrew Bolt site who will still be imploring Peter Costello to come back and save the Libs when he is well and truly tucked up in the Afternoon Light Retirement Home.
The record of the Liberals in Opposition throughout the country has been one of “Next Messiah, please”. They seem incapable of doing the work that is required to make them electable again.
There is no reason for Mr Costello to reconsider. Why would he want to lead the Liberals to defeat in 2010 and 2013? He can count.
OzPol Tragic (32),
I think Andrew Bolt has been consistent on the theme of Peter Costello as the Liberal saviour, though he can read polls better than many of his regular posters.
I haven’t posted anything at Possum. There is a limit to the time I wish to spend on the web. It’s all right for people who work and then have holidays. I don’t get holidays. I have to get every morning of every day and go to retirement. No breaks for me!
Perhaps a few well meaning plants at that site could suggest they should bring back John Howard? That should helptheir electoral appeal…
Socrates @ 6
No that is just not how s57 works.
The Essential Reserch poll has the Green vote at 8%.
Is the Newspoll Green primary out yet?
Tom, 11 per cent. You could buy the paper, you know.
#16.
[Newspoll PDF.
http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/0703%20Fed%20&%20Leadership.pdf
11%.
Socrates,
Not even Robert Menzies could do it for them now. But then he switched his own vote from the Liberals to the DLP. (No, I am not intending to resurrect a lengthy discussion of the last few days.)
This is from the article about business confidence rising
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-business/business-conditions-at-prelehman-levels-20090714-djjh.html
49&50
Thank-you
49
And give money to News Corp? No. Anyway it is a lot of paper to by for 6 letters and 2 numerals.
51
Why did Menzies switch his vote?
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25780498-5005962,00.html
Mmhm…
News.com.au is running with this graph that Senator Foolding is using to justify his climate change denialism:
http://www.news.com.au/common/imagedata/0,,6718976,00.jpg
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25780407-5019059,00.html
Foolding is also analysing this graph which he thinks is further evidence of global cooling:
http://www.venganza.org/piratesarecool4.gif
ltep
I understand that; I meant legitimate DD trigger in a political not legal sense. Obvioulsy if the CPRS is rejected, Rudd should start the clock and bring it back in 30 days or whatever is the time. It would need to be rejected twce of course.
Why is Steve Fielding doing this?
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25780407-5019059,00.html
Is he just trying to shore up the denialist vote?
He’s such a moron he can’t even see that his graph shows an upward trend…
57
3 months is the required time according to the section of the Constitution with the same number as your post.
Shows On,
My kids think it would be “cool” to be a pirate. Obviously the “Jack Sparrow” effect.
Possibly, perhaps he has figured that his best chance of re-election is taping into the 10 – 15% of Australians who do not think climate change is occurring.
On the other hand, perhaps he is just a complete moronic idiot who has absolutely no idea what he is going on about?
Considering that the first proposition – that this is a calculated play for votes – is less likely, because it assumes that he knows how to thinks strategically?
ShowsON 56
OK now FIelding is crossing over from well meaning idiot to cynical liar. The graph linked to in News (your first link) has no source attributed. Global temperature is NOT following the pattern shown in that graph. The situation is complex and temperature is going upmore in some places than others. You can easily select a single location to match Fielding’s graph, but it isn’t representative of global averages. Here is a detailed discussion of it:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
Here is a link with a reasonable summary graph. Note it doesn’t contain the large downward spike in Fieldings graph for 2008.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record
Fielding needs to be quizzed where he got/made up that graph from. I think its false as a measure of global temperature.
Tom (54),
I think he just decided that the Liberals were not quite the party he had founded any more.
I found on Fielding’s website that he has the graph:
http://www.stevefielding.com.au/climate_change/
It says the dat for temperature is from the Hadley Centre (British Met Office). They are very reputable but I haven’t seen that graph before on their website. I checked here:
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/comparison.html
Someone really should ask Fielding who constructed that graph and how they did it.
Socrates
He does attribute it here:
http://www.stevefielding.com.au/climate_change/
It’s the Hadley centre data.
What he misses is that the graph still shows an upward trend. I would reccommend sending him emails about it. He needs to learn what a dunce he is.
Astrobleme
Agreed but my point was that I have checked the Hadlee Centre and other sources and I still can’t see where he got that graph from. I think it was constructed or modified by someone else. I agree that it still shows an upward trend, but the spike down in temperature in 2008 in Fielding’s graph is missing from other sources I have checked.
Sorry Socrates
I missed that part of your post.
It looks like the monthly data, and looks pretty correct to me. The temp plunged a lot from Oct 2007 to Feb 2008, then started to rise again. That drop was due to a La Nina – one of the biggest we have observed.
The best analysis of the latest data I have seen was on a blog called Open Mind – here:http://tamino.wordpress.com/2009/06/26/embarrassing-questions/#more-1673
This is the sort of analysis that Steve Fielding needs to do, it even names the post after him…
Pffft. He didn’t miss it. He cherry picked on purpose. This whole thing is a stunt.
Socrates
Here’s the real data…
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadcrut3gl.txt
It is just a text file, but you can construct your own grpah by putting it in excel.
Sky news main story is that the stakes have been dramatically raised with the govt being accused of being responsible for Hu’s arrest. Bronnie Bishop is the accuser but to hear Sky you’d think it was from a credible source, sheeesh!
They still concider Turnbull saying Rudd must phone Hu as big news too.
Sky also has tried putting a positive spin on Turnbull’s woefull ratings, according to them it’s because he’s plagued by the popularity of other Liberal MPs.
Those Libs have such a huge pool of talent, popular talent that is, don’t ya know.
Dario,
I reckon we pound him with emails making sure he knows we see through his cheap stunt!
I wonder if Sky News will blame the government for the improvement in business and consumer confidence?
Further thoughts on Sky: they seem to have a “black-armband view” of Labor’s history in office.
Thanks Astrobleme for that link. The sources I had checked didn’t have monthly figures hence I didn’t see the downward spike and its absence elsewhere now. Still an upward trend as you say.
vera
Sky makes a great point there. Every time I ponder the Liberals leadership contenders, I can’t get the phrase “embarras de richesse” out of my brain. I’m sure all thinking Australians are the same.
Socrates if you dont like Sky news for whatever reason, dont watch it!
I dont like The Age so I dont buy it only to complain later about it being biased in favour of the ALP???
BTW Dario Gore and the rest cherry pick stuff too…
Dont worry about Fielding he’ll be gone soon enough.
What’s the point of having confidence anymore? We just lost China.
And it’s all Rudd’s fault for being too close, then too far, then too close and now he’s too far from them again. I accept the logic of the Internatuional Affairs Gurus at News Ltd like Milne and Hewitt: it is best not to have someone who speaks Mandarin and who has not been 1st Secretary at the Beijing Embassy and who is generally an Old China Hand. Because here the pundits see him as too close to China and in China they see him as too uppity and in need of a pulling down a peg or two.
Better to have Johnny Howard, a man who famously said on his first visit to Beijing, “Hmmm… this Chinese food is very tasty,” to the PResident of China, looking after our relations with the Red Devils.
Glen
“BTW Dario Gore and the rest cherry pick stuff too…”
What do they cherry pick? For the ‘warmer’ argument there’s no need.
Everybody picks data that supports your own view on things why wouldnt you?
Glen 76
Excellent point; I don’t
All I know about it is what I read here; similar to the Australian. They don’t even get a click on their website from me.
BB
True. I’m sure the Chinese must feel quite insulted having to deal with a foreign Prime Minister who can speak their language fluently. How condescending of Rudd. Why can’t he speak to them in the Queen’s English and have someone translate like a proper colonial power?
At least the IPCC seems to have the vast majority of climate scientists agreeing with their data. Who do the deniers have?
Glen
I disagree and don’t think gore cherry picks data. In fact that is ewhat is false about teh CC debate. One side quotes mid range estimates and the other goes looking for the tiny shreds of evidence that the trend is wrong. If anything the IPCC repors have been too watered down. That is why actual data has been consistently worse than they predicted. The ABC interviewer tried that line on Gore and he rightly picked her up on it. The opponents of climate change at this point are no more credible than doctors who say smoking isn’t harmful.
“Everybody picks data that supports your own view on things why wouldnt you?”
Because, er, one might be honest and ethical. If you think “everybody” does such a thing, you need to dump your social circles and pick up a new one with a tad higher level of quality.
Same re: me with regards to the Green Left Weekly
Looks like Mr T will take us to the next election…
If Unca Howie supports you and the previous leader supports you it’s very unlikely you’ll lose your job. But by the same token Mr T will lose his job next year anyway
It means that person is intellectually bankrupt, because they have to cheat and use fraud instead of changing their opinion to something that better suits the evidence.
Howard supported Nelson, but that didn’t exactly help him.
You know what’s great?
On Fielding’s own webpage he provides Minister Wong’s reply to his three questions… It’s hilarious as he provides the details of why he is wrong on his own website!
http://www.stevefielding.com.au/images/uploads/Wongs_Response11.pdf
What a moron!
Glen, you are incorrect when you say that Al Gore is just picking data that supports his own view. Can you show where and how he did it?
Though we are still stuck with Fielding and the rest of the Senate for nearly a year after that.
Triton, we get new Territory Senators at the same time as the new House – not that it will likely make a bunny’s fart of difference to anything!
Yes but Turnbull didnt
88
It would if the number of Territory Senators were increased to 3 each. The likely outcome would be one new ALP (NT) and one New Green (ACT). This would mean that the ALP would need only the Greens and Fielding or Senator X to pass legislation.
I forgot about that, Possum, and, yes, I imagine we would get the same party representation and maybe even the same Senators.
Dio I love it when you talk French ( as Gomaz would say)
Happy Bastille Day to you
Yep, that darn Rudd has wrecked our dealings with China allright
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25779649-664,00.html
It looks like Stern Hu was caught up in a much bigger operation. There are rumors that BHP is also being looked at.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25780707-5005200,00.html
From the authorative Asian Times. It always amazes me how good and in-depth the articles from the Asian Times are. Anybody who is a serious student of Asian Affairs, this website is a must and It is FREE. Just hope it will not be bought out by Rupe. Otherwise, i will prepare to pay:
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/KG14Ad01.html
Malcolm Turnbull could do with a Chinese proverb:
“He who keeps silence is not an idiot,
An idiot does not know how to keep silence”
If the polls stay where they have been and that is reflected in the next election, Malcolm will not only lose his job as Lib Leader, he will lose his seat also!
As has already been pointed out, no he won’t.
Oh, sorry. I forgot that if the Greens can’t win it off him, then Labor even with a good candidate and a good sized swing can’t?
Velly silly of me not to realise that.
And after all that pointing out too.
Just goes to show, you can’t take any notice of those dastardly polls can you?
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/
On a Labor 2PP of 55% (or even 56%), the Liberals would retain Wentworth.
Wentworth = LIB Retain
Can you imagine how good Turnbull’s concession speech is going to be full of Churchillian bluster
IIRC, Turnbull benefited from some disaster with the ALP candidate, so his margin in Wentworth might not be as good as it appears.
Glen,
Seeing as Bondi is in his electorate he’ll be able to say, “We’ll fight them on the beaches”.
If Turnbull’s PPM and satisfied/dis-satisfied levels are similar at the next election then I would have no hesitation on sticking a lazy $100 on him to be looking for a new career in Law or Merchant Banking.
Triton makes a good point. In Wentworth, the ALP had a nightmare of a candidate where the entire campaign was a farce – appropriately ending with the laughable climax of Caroline Overington going the slap.
Turnbull’s margin is probably generically overcooked a bit.
But! (there’s always one of those eh
)
Being a leader, even of this Opposition, has probably boosted his vote anyway – so it might all just come out in the wash.
Just further on that – the alternative is truly a Liberal Party nightmare.
If the Libs get hammered 55/45 in the election, the swing might well be enough to take Turnbull with it.
That would be two Liberal leaders in two consecutive elections losing their seat, where the first presided over one of the biggest swings ever against the Coalition and the latter leading them to the worst ever result in the history of the federal party.
That is how political parties get destroyed.
I am still of the opinion that the Liberals will try the “crazy brave” option before the next election.
The conventional wisdom that Turnbull is the only person to lead to the next election is crud. If the polls continue the way they have been, will the dozen or so members in marginal seats be content to be led to a resounding defeat?
Would potential leaders keep their baton in the knapsack when staring down the barrel of a Labor majority of 50 seats?
Something has go to give.
Here’s a beautiful meme graph of the US election (which also shows the blogosphere is 2.5 hours behind the MSM on breaking news). Look at that great big bright pink segment which wins as the most topical comment for the whole election. And what was it;
How I loved that quote.
Fielding said, out of his own mouth, that he believes that global warming is happening but that he is not convinced that the cause of it is man made. So what does he do? He goes around with statistics showing that the planet is not warming. So he believes that the planet is warming but povides evidence that it isn’t. Fielding, you truly are an idiot!
Fancy him trying to organise a meeting with Al Gore? As Effie would say – how embarrassment!
As some have suggested, I just think he is trying to get some publicity as a denier to tap in to that voter base. Lets face it, he isn’t getting re-elected on ALP preferences next time around, so he badly needs to pick up a stack of votes.
Maybe Dario, but his contradiction exposes his blatant stupidity regardless of his motives.
No need to be that dramatic. The Liberal Party, unfortunately, will live on.
Great quote highlighting the hypocrisy of politiicians from a good story about Abbott’s new rantings on divorce laws.
http://abc.com.au/news/stories/2009/07/14/2625441.htm
Tom.
If there is no DD trigger then increase the Territory Senators from 2 per territory to 3 per territory. Probably an extra Labor and an extra Green so Fielding`s influence before the changeover of state Senators would be halved (as would Senator X`s).
Hurray for the 2 Party System
I’m not sure I’d call that stupidity. Duplicity perhaps, dishonesty or hypocrisy, but not stupidity if he is doing it to get re-elected.
Well, I would call it stupidity. Fielding must show evidence that man is not responsible for global warming if he wants to win votes, otherwise he is making a fool of himself! Relying on the dumb vote is not a good strategy.
114
Boo
Its undemocratic and anti-choice.
It’s painful to have to point this out on this site but there is no ‘would’ here. It’s statistics remember. On a Labor 2PP of 55% (or even 56%), the Liberals are likely to retain Wentworth. There are no guarantees that they would retain Wentworth even if the 2PP was 50% or less.
One can only hope and prey
Rua went:
The irresistible panic meets the immovable delusion
The Liberal member for Indooroopilly who did a similar silly thing to Turnbull’s fake email non-resignation couldn’t withstand every single of day of State parliament being told , ” It is now x days since the member for Indooroopilly should have resigned.” I doubt whether Turnbull could withstand that type of pressure either. Beanland managed to throw away one of the bluest Liberal seats in Queensland.
Are Wentworth’s demographics changing? That, and RW internal Liberal campaign against Gays and/or Jews, would be just about the only things that could turn Wentworth Labor. It could, however, fall to a high-profile, rich, skilful ‘l’ liberal on ALP, Green etc preferences.
Dario & Centre
Fielding is a dangerous idiot who is way out of his league. He believes he has the silver bullet to disprove man-made CC on the basis of a single graph from the Hadley Centre!!
A PB earlier on this thread checked out the Hadley Centre’s website and couldn’t find this graph.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/latest/5724641/fielding-gore-climate-change-warming-carbon
Steve Fielding wants to convince Al Gore he’s wrong
This is the chart climate change sceptic Senator Steve Fielding hopes will convince Al Gore that global warming is not real.
[Hurray for the 2 Party System] Glen at 114
Glen, Some countries have organised themselves to have, effectively, a two party system within the one party (eg, Japan, until quite recently). It just may be that Ruddy’s cuning plan is to bring about a situation where the ALP is so entrenched in the centre that the national political debates are between the slightly right of centre ALP wing and the slightly left of centre ALP wing, leaving the Lieberals to enjoy the few limited positions of sinecured irrelevancy that they so obviously crave.
Fielding is irrelevant in the CPRS debate – if the Greens and the Rabble oppose it his vote is worth toad poo.
Possum, do you care to do an line graph to work out the average projected downturn in the Labor vote since the election to determine what the polls are more likely to look like at the next election?
Just as the 60/40 polls weren’t going to last forever, neither will the 55/45 polls.
bob1234
Look at the spifilicious pollytrend
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/files/2008/12/pollytrendlarge.png
Oh he’s already made a fool of himself, that’s beyond question. But if it works and he gets re-elected then you’d have to say it’s smart politics. Being a Senator he’s got a profile and he’s using it as much as he can.
Fielding believes in the Rapture so therefore all God fearing people will be saved come judgment day so the threat of CC or nuclear war or famine or disease don’t figure all that highly in his scheme of things. As far as he’s concerned all those who deserve to be saved will be saved – the rest can go to hell.
That makes him a very dangerous person to hold a senate seat in a tight parliament.
Trubbell at Mill
I dont dismiss the shameful position of the Tories in Australia right now but as in 1949, 1975, 1996, they always come crawling back
eventually 
Everyone sign up for the Climate Change Vote petition:
http://www.alp.org.au/
The Tories didn’t “crawl back” in 1975, they just abused the constitution.
bob,
There’s no real rule to these things because people will act on what is happening around them.
Teh Narrowing doesnt happen every election. Yet, on the other hand, I’m not one to believe that a 56/44 result is impossible and will never occur.
If we really want to get all funky about it, there are only two possibilities that I can find when it comes to consistent patterns in electoral behaviour over recent federal history: (it’s a longish argument with charty bits so I’ll just drop a link)
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/02/15/nerdy-sunday-predicting-campaign-effects/
But even those things are more an exercise in wankery than anything else!
We just can’t really predict what will happen at the next election, especially this far out.
But I’m certainly open to the possibility that a great many things could happen that orthodoxy will often dismiss.
130
There was no party to the Left of the ALP, that got a significant portion of the votes, at those elections.
The Libs have one job to do at the next election – keep themselves in contention for 2013.
Glen! More computer wall paper for you!
You can’t keep the old guy off TV:
http://img200.imageshack.us/img200/853/johnny2.jpg
Tom Hawkins
And of course Labor would never have any MP who was as idiotic as Fielding’s would they.
Imagine if Federal Labor had an MP who said this about the GFC;
Now someone who was that deranged would be really dangerous.
And find a Leader who can keep them in contention for 2013.
Just looking at Howard makes me cringe at the fact we have that clown Turnbull leading us…
Glen, make that two clowns.
Diog
The problem is that many in Bidgood’s electorate would agree with him.
The major difference between Howard and Turnbull is that one has already been beaten by Rudd.
ruawake
Are there that many nutty Queenslanders? You just can’t buy idiocy like this. I hope the Laborophiles here remember this next time they bucket Fielding. They have a guy who is much, much worse.
Two things re Wentworth that the punters above have not taken into account:
1. Labor last time really thought they were in with a chance in Wentworth but George Newhouse turned out to be a dud candidate. Are the NSW ALP planning to throw as many resources (money, troopers) at Wentworth again? especially when we all know that MT has very deep pockets.
2. The redistribution in NSW may provide some much lower hanging fruit for the ALP to pick from the electoral tree in places likes Macarthur, Gilmore, Hughes or Paterson
Diogenes , did you meet any LNP supporters while in Port Douglas? Maybe they are all in Brisbane for their conference this weekend, they’ll curl your hair and make Fielding and Bidwell appear bastions of sanity.
Fine but even taking your view at least one clown got to be PM for nearly 12 years
The other will lucky to be Opposition Leader for half that time.
Diog
Bidgood got a 13%+ swing in Dawson, his religious nut job views were well known.
Yes the religious nut job vote is very important in some Qld electorates.
137
OK, I agree, Bidgood is a nutter. That doesn’t alter my opinion that Fielding is a dangerous person to hold a minor party seat in a tight senate. Bidgood is just a party hack who will vote with the party.
And have you noticed that all the US Televangiloists have their Australian Offices registered to Qld PO Boxes ?
Qld is the Religious Nutjob Capital of Australia
I am not sure how many of the blogsters out there read Antony Greens piece on a DD but it did raise some interesting possibilities.
If there should be a DD, the Greens could quite likely end up with 4 or 5 long term senators, 7 not impossible (1 from each mainland state, two from Tas). At the half senate election after next, none of these long termers would be up for re-election so the Greens could end up with 11 or 12 senators – making life very difficult for whichever government is in power, and possibly triggering yet another DD.
If the Rudd government went to a DD in the first half of next year, there would need to be another election by May 2012 at the very latest so that the two houses are back in sync. Assuming that they would not want to go this year because of the redistribution muddle.
Blackburn,
The NSW redistribution will be interesting – they could simply remove a western seat and make shifts in the boundaries of a minimal number of surrounding seats, or they could take a more comprehensive approach that would see a cascading shift in boundaries across large swathes of Sydney.
The problem with the Liberal vote in Sydney (in terms of good booths for them) is that it runs in dense but relatively isolated geographical veins. Nearly any redistributions of the boundaries in Sydney are likely to be bad for the Libs in net terms – at least at the margins.
A quesiton for (or anyone else). Has any previous PM had a 60%+ satisfaction rating in their second year as PM?
One big unknown for the Queensland senate candidates is the LNP, Liberal, National split personality problem which must confuse voters next time around.
Woops – that was meant to be “a question for Possum”!
If I was running the next federal ALP campaign in NSW I’d certainly target Wentworth.
If Turnbull gets taken out, then a pattern will start to emerge.
What is Liegh Sales doing in 2011?
Has anyone registered the National Liberal Party yet?
steve
Now that you mention it, the bus-driver was a bit nutty. He believed that you could create your own reality. Something about a cross-over between chaos theory, Buddhism and Robert Anton Wilson.
Luckily the debate on smoking and lung cancer is done and dusted. I could see Fielding presenting as evidence a bunch of people who had smoked 10 years but didn’t have lung cancer as his proof it is all lies. Of course he wont want to draw that graph out to 20 to 30 years.
Shanahan et al don’t understand basic statistics, do they? Lift within the margin of error? I wonder if he’s ever heard the phrase “not statistically significant” and understood what it meant.
Steve
The Libs-Nats ran a joint Senate ticket last election, so it is not too much of a problem. In the HoR it could be a real problem with 3 differing policy positions.
Diogenes, years ago Far North Queensland was full of people with names like Peter Jackson, Philip Morris etc – child maintenance dodgers heaven apparently.
IF Turnbull is still opposition leader at the next federal election and maintaining anything like his current popularity figures, Labor would prefer to give him an easy run in his own electorate and so that he can be out in the marginals turning people off the Libs as they see him up close and personal.
What banner is Senator Trood going to run under at the next election?
As an expert on International Affairs, I’m sure Senator Trood would make a better contibution for the Liberals than Mesmeralda has managed to do with the China issue.
Grog went:
Here’s a chart of Newspoll PM satisfaction ratings (monthly averages) going back to 1986.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/files/2009/07/pmsatall.png
Its Time went:
But credit where credit’s due, at least sampling error is now in the popular News Ltd lexicon.
Could the Liberals parachute Howard into a safe seat?
The could run the line that since Howard left things have gone awry. He is now back to sort it all out.
On the question on why he got kicked out of his own seat, they could say that it was a seat that he according to demographics should have lost a long time ago. That he managed to hang on for that long in that particular seat was actually an achievement. I think Howard would be up for it (and most of the party).
Much against my better judgement I have continued to read the Spectator magazine since they added 12 pages of “Australian” content some months ago – mostly OO hacks and columnists like Tom Schitzer – oops sorry that should be Switzer – but the UK part of it still has some good book, theatre, film revues etc and so I have persevered with it. Alas no more. The liberal fawning pro-Liberal editorials now have me reaching for the sickbag and Tom Switzer’s eulogy on Frank Devine -”John Howard considered him a “friend” and “superb writer”, as did Cardinal Pell.
The most fascinating comment comes from a UK journalist – James Delingpole – interviewing Prof Ian Plimer about his book “Heaven and Earth: Global Warming – The Missing Science” where Delingpole writes “……Kevin Rudd’s ETS legislation narrowly squeaked its way through the House of Representatives” (narrowly squeaked??????). BUT …….the real challenge lies with the Senate which looks likely to reject the bill. “If it does so twice, then the Australian Government will collapse (sic), a ‘double dissolution’ will be forced (sic again) and a general election called.” What? I know I’ve been up in Cairns for a few days but has the law changed so that a bill being rejected twice in the Senate “collapses” a government? There’s not much to read in the local Cairns press so I may have missed it.
I’m afraid it’s the last copy of the Spectator I’ll be wasting money on! Oh well, like Playboy, the cartoons were often hilarious.
Vincent, he would probably manage to lose the safe seat and the election going on Howard’s past performance.
Possum
We’ll see if Shana has any understanding when we see the next fall in Liberal primaries by 2 points. Or does he have it in for Turnbull and will a 2 point drop herald Turnbull’s imminent demise?
Here’s an interesting chart – PM Satisfaction since 1986, but with a linear trend overlay since the last recession.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/files/2009/07/forpollbludger1.png
Prime Ministers are getting more popular over time. Wonder if it’s the economic cycle or the wonders of modern political management that’s responsible?
I think I wrote something about this once…. one forgets after a while
It’s Time
Id imagine it will depend on how Turnbull fares in that dominant of dominant leading indicator metrics that only The Oz understands – Preferred Dining Companion.
A few point boost in that and it’s The Lodge Here We Come. A few points away on the other hand, then it’s onto Messiah Mk 3.
Who stated these wise words?
of…Shana?…Milne?…Mitchell?…Rupert?
George Orwell?
Hermann Goering
Goebbels.
Oh, alright, Goering. I thought it was Goering but… oh never mind.
Thomas Paine wins.
Although a Shrub may have thought along similar lines.
A bit of self promotion from the very saleable Leigh Sales:
Nah, he doesn’t have the ticker.
The same could be said of Gough Whitlam lol!
No one is suggesting tha Gough be parachuted in.
The Labor “jobs jobs jobs” truck wasn’t in Wentworth for nothing. There could be a range of similar trucks (or utes) roaming around Wentworth right up to the next election.
After what Turnbull tried to pull on Rudd, to think that he doesn’t want Malcolm to pay as high a price as possible, would be to vastly underestimate Rudd!
Howard didn’t and Malcolm does so at his peril!
They’ll target Wentworth, if only to keep some of Turnbull’s attention diverted.
Especially after the successful campaign they ran against Howard using the same strategy.
This is an interesting study. It shows that people who watch kiddie porn very seldom actually abuse children (only 1%). Of course, someone has to make the stuff in the first place but people who watch it are a different group of sickos from actual paedophiles.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25779733-5006301,00.html
Final submissions in the trial of former Minister Nutall are tomorrow.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25781984-3102,00.html
Cheers Possum, absolutely outstanding work!
Diogenes @146 Posted
<blockquote.ruawake
Are there that many nutty Queenslanders? You just can’t buy idiocy like this. I hope the Laborophiles here remember this next time they bucket Fielding. They have a guy who is much, much worse.
Macadamias, Joh, peanuts, Joh, mango season, Joh, lychees, Joh, pawpaws, Joh, mud crabs, Joh, tiger prawns, Joh, crocodiles, Joh, cyclones, Joh, heat, Joh, “pot” grows wild, Joh …
That strategy of campaigning heavily with a high profile candidate effectively neutralised to a fair extent the ability of Howard to campaign on behalf of his marginal seat holders, let alone for Lib candidates in Labor marginals.
Poor old Johnny was so desperately fighting for his own seat that he was of very little benefit electorally to the Libs campaign.
The bonus that they thought they had with Howard having a higher approval rating than the Libs 2PP position in the polls leading up to the election was totally neutered by Rudd.
They would not have suffered anywhere near as badly as they did if Costello had been handed the baton during APEC.
Still, the way it all turned out was fun, wasn’t it!!!
Poss @ 171: I dare say it’s true. Politics is becoming more of a science, as your blog shows.
Prime Ministers have tracking polling and focus groups and (dare I mention the words) Crosby Textor…
They can, to some degree, scientifically manage their popularity. I would expect this trend to continue.
Finned one, did you make any progress with the KPU website?
Did anyone see Rudd’s brother on & news? He’s off to China to set up business or an agency or something. He said the fuss going on at present is just a minor blimp (not exact words, something like that)
I bet the media are flat out trying to dig up some dirt on him to throw at Kev.
Should be 7 news
I have two names for you. George W Bush and Gordon Brown.
I believe they have modern political management in the US and UK.
Vera, they’ve already done that one in July 2007.
http://sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Greg_Rudd
vera,
Maybe some of Rudd’s predecessors were convicts. No one wants to tar him with a genetic fault unless you are a Liberal and desperate.
Diogs,
Penny Wong is the most popular Water Minister as far as I know.
Diogenes: The trend is your friend.
Spectacular stupidity (usually driven by unchecked ego’s) is always an possibility.
Remember, the trend is your friend, the trend is your friend.
Hrmmm. I committed apostrophe crime. I shall have to flagellate myself with a wet lettuce.
Thanks Steve
GG Rudd is from convict stock
I dont know why people dont understand Shanahan psephology- any move in the coalitions direction heralds a major shift in opinion, a move in Labor’s direction is in the margin of error!!
Andrew @ 202: Au contraire! I think many people understand, appreciate and find special comfort in Shazza’s “psephology”… the dwindling bases of the coalition and OO readership would make up the most of them…
Rudd’s convict ancestors
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article4440698.ece
The trend is non-existent in the US presidential ratings. They really hated Truman at the end, didn’t they.
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-presapp0605-31.html
PJ went:
I wonder how high the sats can go? Surly we much have hit the peak – the only people that haven’t been satisfied with Rudd at some period over this administration are the 25% absolute rusted on Liberals (minus the spot welds as Bushfire Bill puts it)?
Dio went:
I wonder if those two are more a consequence of voluntary voting than hard political science?
If the US and UK had compulsory voting, Bush would have been constrained and Labour would have been booted last time.
Vera,
Next you’ll be telling me Turnbull is related to Captain Bligh who hid under his bed when confronted with a vote of confidence.
Kevin Rudd has had a slight change in hair style since this was taken. A good choice of books though!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:M596285.jpg
GG
He is too and he’s still got the bed to prove it.
scorpio,
Great get!
Poss, you asked:
Arguably, asymptotically the trend can keep increasing forever… what is the hard limit? Who can say? Can you run some sort of logarithmic(?) progression to estimate the hard limit? Does the data support that?
vera,
He’ll probably buy Kev’s ute to keep the family humiliation heirlooms in the family.
Psephos – not too sure if this what you were looking for:
http://203.130.201.142/images/mediacenter/hasil_pileg_2009/terpilih_dpr/55.JATIM_X.pdf
If so, more here:
http://203.130.201.142/hasil-pemilu-2009.html
*regression
Greensborough Growler
So is Premier Anna.
GG lol, and he’ll need to buy a wharehouse to keep them all in the way he;s going.
PJ went:
I tried that a couple of months ago and ended up at about 70% as the asymptopic plane. But it was all a little blah, blah, blah on the significance
Old Stephen Wolfram is a strange old thing, but he knows some things…
http://www00.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=log+fit+{15.2%2C8.9}%2C+{31.1%2C9.9}%2C+{38.6%2C10.3}%2C+{52.2%2C10.7}%2C+{75.4%2C11.4}
Turnbull’s “Bligh” connection is here.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malcolm_Turnbull
Queensland Premier Anna Bligh is of course a direct descendant of William Bligh.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anna_Bligh
OPT,
I did notice there are no Fletchers or Christians in the Cabinet.
Shame the link got mangled – can be found easier via this one: http://www00.wolframalpha.com/examples/RegressionAnalysis.html
Finns, thanks, but I already saw those tables. I don’t what they’re representing, but they don’t give the full vote totals for each party polled in each district. In the example you give, JATIM X (East Java 10), there were more than a million votes cast in 2004. The pdf you link to seems to give only the votes of the leading candidates of six leading parties, although the district actually elects eight members, as shown by the party totals at the left of the table. So they’re no use to me. (What does Nama Calon Terpilih mean?)
Here’s another bit of history for Tories to immerse themselves in.
http://www.straightdope.com/columns/read/2826/if-captain-bligh-was-really-such-a-jerk-to-his-crew-why-was-he-promoted-following-their-mutiny
Psephos, The KPU site is a dog breakfast maze. there are many other links yet to be explored. Will keep trying.
Nama = Name
Calon = Candidate
Terpilih = Elected
When Australians are asked about the influence of each of these countries on the world, these are the % who think the named country has a positive effect (taken in 2009).
Canada 77%
Germany 70%
UK 69%
Japan and EU 65%
France 56%
India 53% (down from 71% the year before)
China 47% (down from 60% the year before)
Brazil 39%
South Africa 35%
US 32%
Russia 30%
And then the dregs
Israel 18%
Pakistan 16%
Iran 14%
North Korea 13%
http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/views_on_countriesregions_bt/588.php?nid=&id=&pnt=588
The plot gets thicken:
http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/Asia/Story/STIStory_402912.html
Finns, there was an interesting article in today’s Fairfax papers.
http://business.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/rios-hu-one-of-many–just-like-chinas-spies-20090714-dj62.html
PJ, at least Wolfram can spell ‘asymptotic’!
I’ve been playing around lately with Least Angle Regression (as opposed to the usual least squares regression) – it can pull off some interesting things with asymptotic behaviour.
How can one possibly argue that an approval rating approaches an asymptote, unless you change the limit for every set of circumstances and watch to see it approach that limit, by which time we would be operating under a different set of conditions
All it takes is an event like a terrorist attack, national emergency etc for a new asymptote to be needed.
Psephos, methinks this is what you are looking for.
http://mediacenter.kpu.go.id/data-olahan.html?layout=default
Item 9 to 17. DPR Members elected by Party, eg Golkar:
http://mediacenter.kpu.go.id/images/mediacenter/DATA_OLAHAN/juni/caleg_asal_golkar.pdf
Finns,
The plot ngets thickererer,
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25780707-5005200,00.html
Tahnks for your contributions and insights to date.
Amigo GG, that’s what we are here for, to smash the news where the MSM would not dare.
BBC is reporting that in 15mins Goldman-Sachs will announce a US$2B profit for the last quarter. Malcolm must be over the moon.
Dio,
I can’t imagine that there would be any more than 75% of the population that would – under normal circumstance – be satisfied with a given PM.
Think about the hardcore rusted on’s for each party – could you imagine those folks ever telling a pollster that they are satisfied with the primary object of their irrational political hatred? We’re talking about the early adopters of Howard Hating and the acute bouts of Rudd Rage here!
Finns, well it still doesn’t seem to give party totals by district. But it does seem to give the names of all elected members and their individual votes, which is something. I can use that if I have the total valid votes by district. Am I right in thinking that in this table:
http://mediacenter.kpu.go.id/images/mediacenter/DATA_OLAHAN/juni/partisipasi_masyarakat.pdf
The columns from left to right are:
1. registered voters
2. valid votes
3. Invalid votes
4. Total votes cast
5. Not voting
?
My mother is a “rusted on” – she has never voted anything but Liberal and never will. But she tells me she likes Rudd and doesn’t like Turnbull at all. If a pollster asked her, she would say she approved of Rudd. Go figure – the man has magical powers.
Their competitors are not doing so well though!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/dec/17/morgan-stanley-loss
Left to right:
* province
* Total voter registered
* Valid votes
* Invalid votes
* Number Voted
* Number did not vote
Finns, terimakasi for that, I will look at all those tables tomorrow.
When this first reported by SMH yesterday. It was taken as the bible and reported by every MSM. It even had SBS World News wetting itself and reported that Hu had personally authorised the arrest of Hu.
Now this has been officially denied:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/14/2625808.htm
Just wondering how widespread will this denial be reported by the MSM.
“Go figure – the man has magical powers.”
I think it comes down to one point, Rudd is a polite, Turnbull isn’t. Rudd destroyed Howard by being polite.
Italy’s debt expected to reach 110% of GDP this year, and 112% next year:
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,25783993-31037,00.html
Typical result of an incompetent conservative government.
206
Why would Labour have lost last time if the UK had compulsory voting? I have read that Labor voters are harder to get out to vote during when Labour is in government.
Imagine if the state`s rights supporting framers of our Constitution had worked out that if the Commonwealth appoints all the Justices of the High Court then states rights would be reduced compared to if say the states appointed one each and the Commonwealth five.
Turnbull for sale. Hypocrisy at its finest.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/millionaires-oiling-turnbull-machine-20090714-dk53.html
Tom: I think we’re rather lucky they avoided that one. Not only would it be impracticable, but can you imagine what would have happened if the likes of Jack Lang or Joh Bjelke-Petersen could have nominated people to the High Court?
Thank you to those providing links to various articles on Hu. The best news for him is that the Chinese are saying that HuNo1 did not personally authorize the investigation. This is going to make a resolution much, much easier.
The sound of donkeys braying will remain what is is now: background noise.
Zoomster
Have just looked at your posts in the last thread, for which thank you.
You were right in detecting a bit of a reflex response. Frustration with silliness does get the better of me at times, which really does nobody any good. I am working on it.
In response to your specific points:
(1) The drought did not become a record breaking drought until a very long way into its trajectory. In fact, for the first 10 years it was just like previous ‘normal’ droughts. Politicians of all stripes have been hiding behind the ‘record’ drought story, for good reason: it lays blame off.
The reality is that for most of its life, the drought was not a record drought at all. You will never get Brumby or Rann to admit this. They cling to the record drought story like drowning men to a life buoy. In fact, I seem to recall that Rann announced the ‘record drought’ well before it was even a record drought.
There is a second piece of poor strategic management. It has been known for DECADES that regional rainfall patterns would change as a result of climate change. We had practical current examples of it happening in the WA South-west and in the Tasmanian central regions. In South Australia and Victoria, where was the forward planning based on this possibility? Completely absent.
Apart from climate change-driven changes to droughts, the other thing that had changed was that there were literally millions more people trying to use the (falsely presumed) same amount of available water in ever-more wasteful ways. To that extent, the water availability issues were perfectly predictable.
While the panic only set in towards the latter end of the drought, the panic would have been largely unnecessary had governments, including the current Victorian ALP Government, figured out that the Melbourne water users were heading for big trouble – even in circumstances of normal variations of known drought intensities. The safety margins had disappeared.
My main point is that we currently appear to be incapable of understanding that we are constrained by natural limits. It is high time that we have this discussion in a way that avoids the need for half-arsed panic reactions like desalination plants and North-South pipelines. They are signs of societal and governmental failure. Building a dam on any remaining rivers merely indicates a willingness to keep the head in the sand for as long as humanly possibly before thinking about Plan B.
I have set out why the panic was largely, if not completely, unnecessary. As for half-arsed responses: We have two massive environmental problems in this country: climate change, and the collapse of the murray darling basin. What do the solutions do? Desalinisation plants add to the pressure on energy, and, I would bet my bottom dollar, will lead to increased CO2 emissions, protestations about renewable energy sources notwithstanding. The North-South pipeline simply sucks a bit (not much) more water from a river system in which over 90% of the fish are European carp, water bird counts at about .5% of the long term average, River Red Gums are dying in the thousands, the water salinity trends are frightening and the wetlands have simply largely disappeared. Oh, and where have all the tens of thousands of waders that used to over-winter in the Coorong? Half-arsed isn’t the half of it.
As the late, great, Peter Cullen put it in relation to the wreck of the Murray Darling Basin: ‘We have tried ignorance and it has not worked.’ Well, it is time we tried something else – getting ahead of the curve, using all the information we have and altering our consumption patterns and migration patterns, before we are trouble, not when knee-jerk responses appear to be forced on us.
(2) I am not suggesting that we go back to a population of about 3 million. That was the sustainable population with the technology then available. It worked for about 60,000 years, perhaps more, so the society didn’t do too bad a job within its technological limits. While I will not be around to see it, I seriously doubt whether our superior technology will enable our society to maintain itself for 600 years, let alone 60,000 years. If current trends persist, we will probably be living off algae gruel grown in endlessly recycled water and endlessly recylced nutrients. What will our population be in 600 years at current rates of growth? 1 billion? Someone who knows maths can figure it out.
With our brilliant modern technology the carrying capacity of Australia could be many times 3 million. I don’t have figures. I suggest that 21 million could live quite well in Australia, and our natural systems could remain quite robust, if our consumption patterns weren’t dominated by the lunatic concepts that nature is an infinite source and an infinite sump as well as an economic externality.
Absolutely agreed. My point is more that, when the current governments came to power, all the good intentions in the world were just that. They made plans on the expectation that what they were looking at was a normal drought, which would be over in a couple of years. The fact that it wasn’t has meant that many of the measures touted by the Bracks/Brumby government have never been implemented.
So I would argue that the current governments (whilst not perfect) can not carry the total blame for lack of action (as some posters, not necessarily yourself, argue) as it was already too late when they arrived on the scene.
Yes, but again this is partly the result of actions of former governments. Kennett, for example, took steps towards the privatisation of water. Making water an asset in this way encouraged people to use it to the hilt.
I have a ’sleeper’ license, which basically goes unused. Even I sold on my water entitlement for several years in the 1990s.
If everyone who has a sleeper license does this, you have real problems.
Unfortunately, this is one egg that’s difficult to unscramble, because on the other side of the coin water should be charged for!
And I get back to – given that governments couldn’t turn back the clock to when there was enough water in the storages and start again (and again, much of the crisis was already in train by the time Bracks took government, although none of us realised it) – what alternatives are there?
I’m still waiting for a decent argument against the NS pipeline. I’ve never supported it (in the sense of ‘yes! that’s the solution!”) but noone has been able to come up with an argument which I could use to stop it (not saying I have that power, but I would be able to run such an argument at a fairly high level). I’ve talked extensively with NS pipeline opposers and come away with nothing to use.
The works surrounding the NS pipeline should result in more water in the Murray. I know that’s a leap of faith thing but so are most.
Any ideas?
Basically, Boer, I’m with you. I agree. But I can also see the problems faced by the various governments and can’t see any alternative solutions that will work in the real world.
This is a fairy tale, Disneyland and almost Monty Pythonesque. A normal business selling normal products and services can never make this kind of turn around so quickly and so spectacularly.
Oh, so sooooory, my apology, there is one. it’s called the Casino.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8149762.stm
Surely, the Obama Admin will not allow this to happen, while they still lost 500,000 jobs a month.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/13/business/13goldman.html?hp
Boerwar 248
That statement ignores political reality, what needs to be done is starting to be done with climate change deniers shouting from the rooftop, and the greens trying to stop politically achievable outcomes. Decades ago there was no political momentum to tackle the problem in any shape or form.
Governments are elected in this country, they cannot force outcomes, the best they can hope to do is help the debate.
You cannot knock the current Victorian government for inaction, they have spent literally 100’s of millions installing pipes and decommissioning channels, the have decommissioning lakes (all the water skying spots of my youth are gone). They have set out a plan that assumes climate change is real. The Victorian government have have spent real money and taken real action.
Fredn
Your statement ignores scientific reality. I read warnings of rainfall changes in a CSIRO report in the late 80s.
Your statement is also logically false. Boerwar’s statement is about climate not politics and it is correct. If he then said that govenments would inevitably change policy as a result of the science that would be an unwise prediction made ignoring political reality. But it is still a fact politicians chose to ignore. They don’t get a free pass on that because change is difficult.
The current Victorian government deserves severe criticism for the pipeline project, which is based on misleading figures about “leakage” to justify a pre-determined outcome. I have less criticism of teh desal project, which is unpopular but necessary. So they are not as bad as their predecessors but still doing bad things. Overall I’d give them a C minus on climate change.
Wow possum at #165 and to think Rudd has kept his popularity that high without resorting to persecuting hapless refugees lick Howie did (see graph at ‘01), amazing!
like not lick!
Poss: Least angles huh? So I read the wiki page on it, and I am none the wiser…
Dio: You said:
That’d be the noise that the regression is designed to take care of. We are talking the trend here, a fairly long term one at that.
Yay for Garrett approving flooding the groundwater in SA with sulphuric acid.
Peter
Over a long time, I agree the noise would wash out but it could take a very long time depending on the event. Remember that GWB’s approval reached 90% after 9/11 (despite a very ordinary first 24 hours where he looked panic-stricken and hid from view). It took 3 years to drop below 50%, despite things like not finding bin Laden, Abu Ghraib and dead soldiers for little gain.
I might as well get this out of the way. Bob Brown has really teed off on Peter Garrett and Labor. I’m not endorsing his comments and I think he really needs to pull his head in and be a bit less negative.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25785165-5005962,00.html
Brown is a knob
That is pretty much an inescapable conclusion to draw.
Garret is pretty much a complete sell-out (as are most of the left wing ALP parliamentarians in Australia). If only the Senate had been increased to 14 per state in 1984 and Garret elected (which he would have been on the vote he got).
Today will go down in history as the day Peter Garret and The Labor Party will be judged as hypocritical and as corrupted, by big dirty power money, as The Liberal Party.
A very sad day.
Why
(This is really weird, I’m usually getting caned for supporting the Greens by the Labor hacks and not I’ve become a Labor hack!!)
According to the whingers, he sold out long ago. The outrage is quite amusing.
…”he sold out long ago”….
True, now there is no doubt, that’s why today is so sad for the environment, Australia, and our kids.
Brown has realised that when Labor are in govt the majority of people are happy with Labor policies re human rights & the enviroment (even 70% of green voters want Rudd’s ets passed) so the Greens have become irrelevant (no great power in senate even). This fact has turned look at me Bob into a harpie screeching the extact same rubbish as Turnbull. He’s become Malcolms deputy sheriff.
Won’t somebody think of the children!!!
Spot on vera
We’re all roooooned!!!
Interesting!!
I actually think its a good thing that Senator Fielding wants to meet Al Gore for it will enable Al Gore to explain aspects of the climater debate that might bring a fresh prepective to the good senator.
Al Gore did make a blantley stupid comment linking Black Saturday with Globel warming completely overlooking the bushfire history of Victoria for there have been several Black Saturday type events before
1851 Black Thursday – about a third of the state is said to have been burnt out
1890s Red Tuesday – large parts of Gippsland burnt
1926 – Kinglake
1939 – Black Friday – which was across a wide area of the Macedon’s, Yarra ranges with a fire front that ran from West of Kinglake to out past Narbothong also the Otways and the Dandenongs
1944 – Large areas surrounding Gippsland
1983 – Ash Wednesday – Macedon’s, Western District, Dandenong’s and Otways were burnt out.
Of course these are only a few examples and I’m inclinde to think that the climate change lobby use of these extreme events actually damages their position for while the planet has been warming but in reality our planet never stops changes and never will.
I’m still waiting for someone to provide a rational argument why there is a serious problem. Squealing and hysteria doesn’t count.
Vera I am not sure Brown is acting any different now than when the Liberals were in Government and has I have previously remarked the Greens only have one approach to politics and that is to oppose.
What many people overlook is that if Garrett agreed with The Greens policies he would have joined the Greens.
What is also overlooked is that a minister has at his/her disposal every bit of info required to make a decision and proceeding after considering the pros and cons with what they believe is the correct course of action. It’s a far cry from being some reactionary in a two bob outfit with stars in their eyes thinking only of a world utopia.
Obviously people aren’t allowed to change their views over time according to some. This “remain the same and don’t dare change otherwise you’re a hypocrite” is BS.
I found it quite funny when I heard Garrett had okayéd a new mine and yes I did reach for a You-tube clip of Blue Sky Mining
Gary Bruce has a vaild point we need our politicans to from time to time to be allowed to change policy for if we really want no one t ever change their position then nothing every will be done and society will never progress, we have Elections partally to allow politicans to outline new directions and again the Greens obession wiht a pure policy setting is one thing that has stopped it from winning sets in the House of Reps, of course Greens will point their incresing support but in reality their support is simplly the total of what has always gone to third parties.
Garrett used to be cool but now he’s just another phoney. I’d have voted for him in his NDP days but not now.
He disagrees with these policies so of course he’ll say that – particularly coz of Garrett’s anti-nuke history.
Well this is certainly not the first time anyone has said anything like this. To the base this is certainly not contriversial. I think its fair enough to say this since it has rescently backflipped on the ETS and “Grocerychoices” (or whatever its called – who cares) after complaint from big business.
I’ve been trying to find it somewhere on the internet but so far to no avail but I believe Lenin once gave his two cents on Australian domestic politics by calling the ALP “the second party of capitalism”. If anyone can confirm this or correct me if he was actually talking about the UK or whatever then that would be appreciated.
I’ve said this 1000 times, so has every Greeny-lefty that ever hears his name – “sell-out” is the responce. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s been heckled with such words.
This is an exageration and he knows it but of course he’ll try to associate the ALP with those dinosaurs.
A sad side note to my earlier post about bushfires from my understanding Black Saturday is the sixth major bushfire to burn though Kinglake which has resulted in lost of life.
The desalination plant is actually good enviromental policy for whilst it will use Blown coal it actually will enable the Government to reduce use of water from our river systems and that is a win for the enviroment.
This is saying Pter doesn’t now believe in what he is doing. That he still thinks as he did twenty years ago. How does Brown know what Peter really thinks? Why does Brown believe Peter has to always think one way on an issue over many years? Aren’t people allowed to change their minds?
I say again, if Peter believed in the Greens policies he would have joined the Greens.
Possum Comitatus says:
No it won’t. Redistributions are the least interesting aspect of psephology. I am happy to be corrected if someone can think of something more dull? If we had PR then there would be no need for dull redistribution talk. Actually, I advocate Hare-Clark which would only minimize redistribution talk slightly. I don’t know, perhaps the NSW redistribution is interesting by redistribution standards.
I seriously don’t think there is anyone in this country who has in a 20 year period not changed their position on something but again the Greens seem to think that the world never changes except for the climate.
I think the most interesting think is the actually election results.
Mexicanbeemer @ 270
I agree, Greens are a political party no different to any other political party. So, as is their right, they act like any other political party. However they try to pretend they are different, holier than thou, never tell porkies etc, but we know better
They criticise the Libs for going negative and then do the same thing themselves. they criticise Libs for blocking then go the block themselves, gross hypocricy in my book.
This is politics and they will say and do anything to keep themselves in the news and to hold on to their loony rusted ons.
Their natural enemy is Labor as that is where they hope to get new converts from. So bluster, mislead, abuse and stamp the feet is just Brown trying to not have the same fate as the Democrats.
276
There are much better ways of reducing the use of water from rivers.
Rainwater tanks (self-explanatory)
Recycling water for the drinking water supply which is much more efficient than pumping it out to the sea at Gunnamatta where it mixes with salt water then the tide moves some of it to Wonthaggi, and then extracting the salt and piping it back to Melbourne.
278
The NSW redistribution could affect the Greens chances of coming second in Sydney and Grayndleras well as the ALP, Lib and Nat balance.
Possum Comitatus
If I am ever interviewed by a pollster (and I pray for it every night) then I will most likely lie to cause trouble for my political enemies. For instance if asked who I thought should lead the Liberal Party although I actually think Turnbull would do the best job for them, I would not say him precisely for that reason. Instead I would say Costello or Hockey as that would cause maximum havok. So how many people would likewise lie like that? If 10% are so inclined then that would mess with the results quite a lot.
Tom!! Australia’s total land mass is four fifths under the Ocean therefore it would be wise policy to use it.
Yes Tanks are a good way to collect water and have been in use for many years and I totally agree with you about recycling water and the Gunnuamatta open toilet should have been closed years ago
Must have slipped Bob’s mind that Pete has been a Labor MP for the last 5 years.
I think it’s disappointing that Peter Garrett has changed his mind from his early days. I don’t see the hysteria the Labor bloggers see, I think it’s just disappointing. I have a theory on why Peter joined the Labor party and it revolves more around his religious beliefs. He is a very religious person – a born again Christian – and I think the Greens views on various topics probably didn’t work with his Christian views.
Vera
“This is politics and they will say and do anything to keep themselves in the news and to hold on to their loony rusted ons.”
What the? I must say that is a fairly simple-minded view. The Greens have been increasing support for some time. Why would attacking Peter Garret for abandoning principles (that he so actively espoused) now be an attempt to hold on to ‘rusted ons’? It makes no sense. It’s hyperbole.
“Their natural enemy is Labor as that is where they hope to get new converts from. So bluster, mislead, abuse and stamp the feet is just Brown trying to not have the same fate as the Democrats.”
Their natural enemy is the Liberal Party. Again, this is simply hyperbole.
287
Typical Greens can’t take criticism so start the name calling LOL
Simple minded Labor Hack here and proud of it!
Who says Garrett’s changed his mind? he has a job to do and should do it according to the rules and policies set out by the ALP. He may well still hate Uranium mining, but as the responsible Minister he shouldn’t let his personal opinion get it the way of doing his job.
Vera
Name calling? I said your view was simple-minded, not that you were simple-minded. Same hyperbole you used earlier.
Tom
Actually, it’s not self-explanatory that rainwater tanks are a good way to go. Their cost-effectiveness is about the same as a desal plant. There are other ways that are much more effective like stormwater capture.
http://www.nwc.gov.au/www/html/605-the-cost-effectiveness-of-rainwater-tanks-in-urban-australia—no-1.asp?intSiteID=1
#274
He had a choice: remain an idealist on the outside with no influence on policy or become a pragmatist on the inside and do as much he can. He is a cabinet minister and can put his case on every environmental issue that comes up. By the time his career as a minister is over he might achieve more for the environment than someone else who is less passionate. The price he pays is that he has to make some decisions that he would privately oppose.
Hyperbole? hmmm is that anything like the Superbowl?
listened to rudd being interviewed by lyndall curtis ABC for PM .14/6/09
She tried the gotcha of nuclear power (since they had approved another mine)
rudd adroitly sidestepped that and basically said we were aimimg for ecofriendly power down the track
so nu nuke wedge there either, I’m afraid
next!
Keith inmrn
Garrett was so vehemently anti-nuclear and anti-uranium mining previously that is beggars belief that he hasn’t changed his view. He knew the Labor party policy before he joined, so he must have changed his view.
Vera
google is your friend.
What you are saying is that no minister can deliver a decision they don’t believe in, despite being overruled by the PM or Cabinet. Have a think about that.
Peter Garrett through the Midnight Oil years had the most amazing moral stature in this country. His running for the NDP was just part of that. Whether he threw it away by joining the ALP could be debated for hours. However, by being appointed (and agreeing to be appointed) as Environment Minister, the moral high ground was ripped away from under him. He has to some extent been the victim of a cynical ‘feel good’ exercise by the ALP which has exposed Garrett to a great degree of ridicule. It is the type of behaviour that leads to a geat deal of cynicism amongst the voting public. If he had joined the Greens (or the Democrats) Garrett could have maintaned his own dignity – and he would be the logical successor to Bob Brown.
The ALP are pretty cynical when it comes to the environment (and environment portfolio) – say the right thing and milk it for preference flows (Graham Richardson 1990), say the right things but always get rolled (John Faulkner 1994), appoint someone of high stature and unimpeachable credentials and then slowly reduce him to a hollow shell (Peter Garrett 2007 – ?).
285
Desal won`t change the water level in the oceans enough to increase our dry land mass. Your argument about the desal plant is even loonier than the IPA type Australia is some small fraction of a percentage urban area so therefore we should let our cities expand (people who say that should be made to live in the desert to show them the rubbish of that argument and you should be made to live on or under the sea for such a silly argument).
If Peter Garrett has changed his view , he should come out and say ‘I was wrong’ or do the honourable thing and stalk off into the wilderness (metaphoricla wilderness!).
Dario
No I am not. You are claiming that I am making a general statement, when I am making a specific statement.
Think about what Peter Garrett said about nuclear energy and uranium mining in the 80s. Consider his views then. How could he possibly join a party that supported uranium mining? He must have changed his view, UNLESS he was lying in the 80s in an attempt to sell records.
Bob Brown must be regretting all those years of politics without any achievements. His bitterness doth overflow and jealousy is now consuming his character as abuse and hysteria dominate his every utterance. The world has passed Brown and his fellow travellers by. Time to retire Bob you old fart. You’re embarrasing yourself.
Off topic, but how lucky is this bloke? Missing in the Blue mountains for 12 days and now been found alive. His father flew out from the UK last week.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/missing-for-12-days-backpacker-jamie-neale-found-20090715-dktz.html
Can’t find it on the net, but from Frank Hardy’s Power Without Glory, Part Three, Chapter 11 is the Epigraph:
Are there any members of the Labor Cabinet who aren’t God-botherers? Please don’t tell me Julia is as well…
Diogenes
I too wonder about how many in either the Coalition or Labor are not God-botherers…
A family friend of mine was the Vice President of the ACF in the 80s, when Peter Garrett was President. Apparently Peter would try and convert people to Christianity all the time at meetings. He has a lot of children too, is it 12 or 13?
What’s wrong with having lots of kids? Is this another example of how low the Greens will go with their smears?
Tom! I never said anything about changing sea levels I said we Äustralia” has no shortage of water but the problem is most of this country’s water is found not in rivers but in the large oceans that overlap our land mass therefore it makes prefect sense if it is possible to use it to do so.
Yeah, I was about to mention Garretts religious views.
Close enough – thanks Grog. Lenin seems so far removed, its hard to imagine him even paying enough attention to domestic Australian politics to make such a comment.
Lenin on Australia
http://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1913/jun/13.htm
So now you are saying nobody can join a party unless that party supports everything they believe in? This just gets better and better lol
vera,
If the Greens on this website are anything to go by, they are a decidedly grubby bunch.
Great Lenin predictions:
“Naturally, when Australia is finally developed and consolidated as an independent capitalist state, the condition of the workers will change, as also will the liberal Labour Party, which will make way for a socialist workers’ party.”
We’re still waiting.
304
That Lenin quote would have to be from before Hughes defected from the ALP and merged with the Liberals over the conscription crisis but it is quite accurate now days probably even more so than when Lenin said/wrote it.
307
I think that 306 was mentioning it in the context of Garret`s religion.
There however is an worldwide overpopulation crisis. More people means less resources on average per person.
Of course Garrett has changed his mind about uranium, just as many people are now changing their minds about nuclear power.
“When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” – John Maynard Keynes.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,635822,00.html
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,635788,00.html
Nuclear related politics in Germany too.
Psephos! Its ironic that you mention John Maynnard Keynes for many economist would have siad his views were dead and buried yet due in part to the Australian government following becoming a little Keynesian we have avoided a recession
bob brown looks and sounds like a bitter man facing the fact that he and his party and heading toward irrelevance as labor confronts the issue of climate change in a comprehensive way. it’s so easy to carp from the sidelines when you dont have to actually make any decisions
Vera
Did I say there was anything wrong with Peter Garrett?
http://markparnell.org.au/uploads/SF%20urban%20water%20report%20final.pdf
For those that wish to consider the options for the future of water provision for SA here is a report for the ‘water proofing’ of Adelaide by a consultancy for the SA Greens.
It has relevance to the other regions with present and future water problems.
Before the anti Greens lobby get their retorts in may I recommend that they actually read the report.
Some pertinent points.
The report uses criteria [cost of outlay and water per litre, amount of water able to be delivered, physical viability, environmental impact] to judge the various options for the provision of water in the future and whilst the focus is on SA, experience from other regions [eg Qld] and relevance to others [eg Vic] is involved.
Basically the recommended approach is ‘water demand management’, an approach used in QLD [there are details in the report] to cut water needs by a huge %.
If utilised in SA, [and elsewhere] this method alone would have minimal impact in terms of cost, damage to the environment, and maximum impact in terms of water provision.
Rainwater tanks do not rate well [expensive, low volume delivered]
Way down the list, characterisaed as an ‘option of last resort’ [expensive, negative environmental impact], comes desalination.
Its worth a read.
Tom and you wonder why we should be using ocean water rather than using river water for the ocean is bigger than any river unless you know something I don’t.
313
Lenin got a lot of things wrong but not all.
I read somewhere that Marx was one of the few to predict the rise of large companies over lots of small businesses.
The main thing that communists got wrong was their notion that the middle class was bad and was going to shrink. They also proved bad a economic management and human rights.
Fredex! I for one am always happy to look at alternative views for I am always open to convincing (Brown will hate that) The only real issues with desalination plants are their cost, excessive use of power and the waste they create but still using the Ocean is a better option than just using the current collection of water measures and is ahead of building a new dam in my view
Grog @ 304
There certainly is a tract (in English) by Lenin analysing Australian industrial relations, wage structure – and possibly the ALP. I can’t remember whether the ALP was mentioned, but that’s possible, as (from memory) it was written when he was living in England. Incidentally, he fits that line from My Fair Lady, “His English is too good, he said, which clearly indicates that he is foreign.” He was an excellent writer. At the same time, Mussolini, still a Socialist, was also living in London, and his English fits the same category. (Trivia time: I was once lucky enough to attend a Polemics conference at which one session was run by the person who chaired the London discussion at which both Lenin and Mussolini were speakers.)
I certainly read a copy then in UQ’s collection; a slim publication, I think in a soft cover. It probably came from the collection of Nell Tritton (Mrs Alexander Kerensky):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Kerensky
Kerensky married (in Pennsylvannia) a Brisbane girl, journalist (& his secretary in Paris) Lydia Ellen (Nell) Tritton (of the George St Bris furniture firm). According to a close relative who’s a close friend of her great-grandnephew, she was stunningly beautiful, and AK head over heels in love. http://adbonline.anu.edu.au/biogs/A160496b.htm
Lenin’s was then the best analysis I’d read – probably because Lenin had no link to Oz. I’m almost certain it also contained that opinion that he hoped to introduce the same reforms in Russia. I don’t think, at that time, the Bolshevik/Menchevik split had occurred, so he was more moderate than he later became.
The British Library also had copies for reading, as I also read it there..
I thought Lenin died in 1921
For some he will live forever
Gus,
There are reports he was seen with Elvis and Michael Jackson at the West Wyalong Shell Roadhouse.
321
If the river water sewerage is re-used but putting it back into the dams then fresh river water usage can be cut dramatically. Sewerage does not contain 3.5% salt and seawater does. The sources of sewerage are also closer to the dams than the bits of the sea open enough for desal.
Lenon died in January 1924.
Kerensky applied for a position as history lecturer at Melbourne University, but they rejected him. Amazing.
Sewage is the substance that goes through the sewers. Sewerage is the process of building sewers for the sewage to go through.
Lenon = Lenin
The founder of the world’s first socialist state, Vladimir Il’ich Lenin, visited London six times between 1902 and 1911and on at least five of these occasions found the time to call into the British Museum whose Library collections were in his view unparalleled.
Lenin at the British Library
If those silly imperialists who ran Germany before 1919 had not decided to get the most revolutionary war-stopping radical through to Sweden to undermine the Provisional Government then Kerensky may well have been leader of Russia and Russia would have been a better and more democratic place.
My guess would be that Kerensky was too left wing for Melbourne University at the time.
Tom! Yes recycling can make a contribution to maintaining dam levels but Australia is surrounded by a massive amount of water which overlaps our land mass.
My point is both recycling, greater collection of rainwater and desalination would provide a more complete package of steps than is currently in place.
Also if climate change predictions are correct Australias climate will for most of the 100 years be much drier before becoming much wetter as the tropics are expected to move southward.
330
Sewage does not contain 3.5% salt and seawater does. One wrong word mistake each.
Actually sewage can contain salt for sewage does include waste water from people’s kitchens and salt is used a fair bit in cooking.
I’m afraid there’s only one logical solution to Australia’s double crisis of greenhouse gas emissions and water shortages: desal plants powered by nuclear energy.
When was that? I thought Australia was the first under Labor. First socialist govt in QLD in 1899, first socialist federal government in 1904, first socialist federal majority government in 1910.
333
Desal is unnecessary and wasteful. Recycling and would mean that there was enough water.
Psephos
Desal. I can cope with (just, tho thru gritted teeth)
Nukelear ,as rudd pointed out,is not part of the future mix
nice try tho
Mexicanbeemer
I don’t really like the Greens view on desal. I think it can make a contribution to our water problems and wish the Greens would get on board. I think most of their opposition is over the power usage, so perhaps once there are more carbon neutral methods they’ll be more agreeable.
335
Overall sewage when it reaches the treatment plants is only a small fraction salt.
336
Run by companies that donate to the ALP of course.
340
There are far better ways of insuring water for Australia.
Psephos
There are some new technologies being investigated over here (in Perth) using wave power to desalinate water. This, if it works, would be very attractive and usable in most places around Australia that need water.
I am totally amazed at some of the bigoted, ill-informed comments I read earlier about Peter Garrett.
What these commenters fail to grasp is that Mr Garrett is a Minister in a Labor Government who has not only to abide by Labor policy and Cabinet decisions, but he also took an oath to act in accordance with the laws of the land in respect to the responsibilities of his portfolio.
Put simply, Garrett must abide by the law of the land when certain applications by corporate bodies require a decision by him as Minister. Nowhere has anybody been able to point out where he has not done so.
His personal opinions on such matters are governed by those laws as well as Labor policy and Cabinet solidarity with the Legislated powers under the Governor in Council taking precedence.
Any other position is irrelevant and nothing more than pie in the sky, wishful thinking by those with a different agenda than that which is right and proper and which Mr Garrett is fulfilling in a most ethical manner in representing the people of Australia!
Tom tfab
you don’t like this idea: http://www.ecosmagazine.com/?act=view_file&file_id=EC137p5a.pdf ??
Scorpio
What a load of fluff.
and if I may add, garrett has matured as apollie and accepts the realpolitik of both the environment and the nuke (mining) sector.
I understand he is still implacably opposed to nuclear weapons and power.
commendable tradeoff giving the neocon bias still extant in mainstream aust.
Tom,
It’s well known that Bob Brown is the king of dodgy donations.
GG
you mean he is the emperor of empty empathy, the pasha of pleading poor, the faqir of …well you get the picture
That’s exactly what I said the earlier comments were!!!
So I take it, you agree with my criticism then?
It’s amusing when a cabinet minister and the PM disagree on something. The Labor diehards don’t know which way to turn – so turn to the PM by default.
Easily said, now explain why.
351 bob1234 – very helpful bob. A general put down with very little basis. Well done.
@Scorpio 344
Exactly!
http://tinyurl.com/knfbco
Psephos
That’s very true but what facts have changed regarding uranium mines since Garrett opposed them? And please don’t say climate change because (1) CC was around then and (2) Labor and Garrett oppose the use of nuclear power to reduce CO2 emission.
Gary and Scorpio
It was fluff because the earlier discussion had nothing to do that.
We were discussing whether or not Peter Garrett had changed his ideology since the days when he was in the NDAP, the ACF, and singing with the Oils. He has, that’s why the Greens are pointing it out. He no longer able to represent the people who admired him for those views in the 80s. The Greens are completely proper to point that out.
I had some strange idea that that was what Mr Rudd’s role was. He is after all the Leader of the Parliamentary Labor Party, responsible ultimately for “all” decisions that are taken by the Government!
How about the fact that he is now a minister…
Pointing it out and using it as a weapon against him are two different things. He has every right to change his mind, as do you or I if we so desire. To hold that against Garrett by saying that what he believes now is really what he believed in the past is without foundation and downright dishonest. How does Brown know this?
Astrobleme, A number of them contained far more spurious assertions than that. I shall go back and cut and paste some of them in my next post and challenge you to say that my challenge to those comments was not justified.
Thats why the Greens oppose it. They want it run by Dick Smith. Bob does owe him after all…
Tom.
Dario
The ‘problem’ (and it’s not actually a problem) is that Peter Garrett has a ‘brand’ (or rather had one) from being in Midnight Oil, being in the ACF, being the face of nuclear disarmament etc. Which was wonderful. However, given that he has changed his mind on these things he can longer genuinely be associated with that brand. It’s disappointing for the people who admired him for his work in that spirit. He is being as a Minister, he’s not doing anything wrong, but the Greens are quite reasonably pointing out to the electorate that Peter Garrett no longer represents that brand.
It is hypocritical to support uranium mining and not nuclear power.
Glen
Gary
It’s not being used ‘as a weapon’ against Peter Garrett (whatever that means). The Greens are just making sure people are aware that he no longer represents that point of view.
Dio, what has changed over the past decade is the overriding imperative to stop burning carbon. Maybe this was evident to you a decade ago, but it wasn’t to most of us. It is now. If we could replace carbon in our power industry with renewables, that would be fine. But I’m still not persuaded that we can. We know that we can shift to nuclear in, say, 20 years, if we are willing to spend the money. Nuclear has problems with safety and waste disposal, to be sure, but they are not problems of the same type as the problem with carbon. If we go nuclear we *might* get Chernobyl-at-Jervis-Bay, but we probably won’t. If we stay with carbon, we *will* kill all life on earth. That’s why the risk equation changed. It’s easy to say “nuclear bad”, and it may be true (although I see no detrimental effects when I go to France). But the position now is “nuclear bad, carbon worse.” So what do we do?
Look at that, I agree with Glen.
But with the Garrett/Rudd situation, Labor diehards taking a stance on it means they have to disagree with one or the other, both of whom are members of cabinet. It tears their hearts apart to do so.
And I say this as someone who is still Labor at heart but puts Greens first not for their environmental policies, but their social policies, of which are more Laborish than modern Labor’s.
It happens from time to time. Shocking I know.
T R O L L
Looks like the seat of Solomon next election is ours
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/15/2626134.htm
MP’s estranged wife applies for DVO
“The estranged wife of federal Labor politician Damian Hale has launched an application for a domestic violence order against him in the Darwin Magistrates Court.”
It’s not as simple as that Astro. I don’t recall Brown saying “Garrett has obviously changed his view, which he has every right to do. We disagree with that view but there you go.” What Brown is doing is actually saying, “Garrett is a hypocrite and you should scorn him.” Now come on Astro you know I’m right. They’re attacking the man rather than just attacking the policy. Please don’t pee down my back and tell me it’s raining.
Psephos
But Garrett and Rudd oppose nuclear power use in Australia to reduce Climate Change so there is a bit of a contradiction. I agree that CC has made nuclear a lot more attractive but they can hardly use that as a reason for digging up more uranium whilst opposing it’s use in Australia.
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,25785762-31037,00.html
Bob1234 @ 337
The meaning of “Socialist” depends entirely on the epithet before it. It describes a specific type of government inspired by Roman Republican democracy, in particular, the populares and equites parties; the term taken (at least according to most sources) from RepRome’s “Social Wars/ struggles” (as is the concept “Class Struggle). Both predate Marx.
The earliest Australian governments were ALP, which, although dominantly Fabian Socialist, also includes (sometimes dominantly) Utopian Socialists – again indicating the extent to which Roman Republicanism dominated the creation of what’s known as radical and working class politics from C18’s last quarter onwards.
Socialists following Marx’s philosophy are Marxian Socialists, or Marxists, or Communists, although there are several different forms of Marxism, even in Russia; inc. Bolshevism (and Marx-Leninism), Menchivism, Trotskyism, Stalinism and others.
Calling someone or something “socialist” is about as handy as calling someone “African” or “Christian”; IOW, it is such a broad term that using it without a more accurate descriptor is meaningless.
IMO, flinging around the term “socialist” is pejorative usage by far RW groups, and usually indicates ignorance of of its origins and various forms.
Gary
Can you quote what Bob Brown ACTUALLY said, rather than your interpretation?
bob1234 @ 351
“It’s amusing when a cabinet minister and the PM disagree on something. The Labor diehards don’t know which way to turn – so turn to the PM by default.”
What utter garbage!
That really is a purile point to be making.
374# I wish that they could be on permanent display on a number of News Ltd blogs.
Well maybe they will have to change their minds. This issue has a long way to run yet.
Astrobleme, These comments are somewhat different to yours!
Glen @ 370
“Looks like the seat of Solomon next election is ours”
Only if that person is re-endorsed.
My point was not to quote his exact words but to give the intent of the words.
One point stands is that it is hypocritical to support uranium mining and not nuclear power, though I would argue that the Gov does support nuclear power (clearly), just not in Australia.
Nimbys.
345
Baseload wave power is good and desal bad (but not as bad as in Melbourne, Sydney or Brisbane where there are better alternatives).
I’m sure that the greater majority of Australians are certainly aware of that by now!
Oh, and Astro, judging by the comments reposted by Scorpio (380) one has to say Brown is getting the desired effect.
Scorpio
To mine the uranium they may be flooding the groundwater with sulphuric acid – it’s an extraction method.
All the rest are reflecting the disappointment people felt because he has gone against what he so rigorously campaigned for in the 80s and 90s. They are pointing out he is no longer associated with the brand he used to represent.
Gary
So you just made it up? What were his words?
Gotta go…
PhilofSydney you have just decovered the joys of the poll bludger party room! a place were we make out we disagree but from time to time the factional alligments change which may explain why Sentator Bob Brown could never be leader of the Poll Bludger party.
371
Brown is actually saying that Garret no longer has represents the views he did 20 years ago and so don`t vote for him based on his views from 20 years ago.
I have no issue with desal. A few people in Sydney are upset about it, but it helps NSWs water supply and is fully powered by renewable energy – I gather the NSW Gov built a windfarm in the Southern Highlands that powers it. Works for me.
LOL. How do you come to that conclusion? See ya.
No they weren’t.
Are you actually serious? Australian Labor was recognised as the first socialist government in the world. Andrew Fisher, famous Labor PM, said “we are all socialists now. The only qualification is that one is not an extreme socialist” or words to that effect.
Early Labor were socialists. You cannot argue they weren’t.
His wife is only one vote Glen. What makes you think she will vote Liberal-Country Party at the next election.
That’s quite a long bow to draw!
Glen @ 363
“It is hypocritical to support uranium mining and not nuclear power.
Glen”
Total bunkum.
Power is only one of many nuclear uses. Australia’s nuclear reactor (Lucas Heights) is responsible for other uses, inc nuclear medicine & some industrial, esp with concerned radiotheraphy, diagnostic medicine using radio-active isotopes.
And let’s not forget the ’socialist objective’ agreement of the ALP.
385
While Browns statements are not as effective as Garrets decisions as minister and that Chaser song (the Chaser are often at there best in song) it does not hurt to remind people every so often.
http://adbonline.anu.edu.au/biogs/A080529b.htm?hilite=anderson%3Bdawson
Care to ignorantly argue any further OzPol Tragic?
394
The first proper majority government was ALP and they were the ones that got a lot of things going.
Socialism has widely varying definitions. Some include the ALP (especially before Whitlam) and others (like Lenin`s) exclude the ALP.
Of course Tom. That nice Mr. Brown would never lower himself to criticise a minister for his past and present beliefs knowing full well he is following Labor policy and is not the only one who has a say in cabinet. He’s not trying to sheet it home to Peter at all.
He doesn’t want people to believe Peter is a hypocrite because he changed his mind. Spare the thought.
A neutral would describe early Labor as socialist. Just look at the policies. If nationalisation isn’t socialist, I don’t know what is!
Sound like Glen has found the bloke guilty all ready.
OzPol Tragic
That’s a pretty long bow to draw. The amount of radioactive material needed for nuclear medicine is pretty trivial and most is technicium and thallium. We could easily import them.
I didnt say he was quilty GB, but this doesnt look good regardless…
It doesn’t. I believe (but can’t remember specific cases) there has been MPs who’ve suffered in their individual seat in the past based upon domestic violence allegations.
Also what about what happened to the guy who held Parramatta for the Libs???
Someone Cameron??
Fellow ‘Bludgers.
Is there any point in doing this? Rann has backed away from a referendum to abolise the Upper House and wants to tinker with it instead.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25785767-5006301,00.html
Labor never believed in nationalisation of all industry. It believed in an economy where the government would guarantee protectionism as long as businesses would accept centralised wage fixing that inflated wages beyond the economic worth of the work.
It took decades before Labor realised taht in the long run this would doom Australians to lower living standards, so they got rid of their protectionist mentality.
Astrobleme,
And “IF” they have abided by the environmental laws and the mining laws and their environmental impact statement is correct and has been approved, and the Company abides by that with its mining operation, then that “MAY” is just an unsupported supposition without any substance or evidence.
If Garrett approved that operation knowing or even suspecting that they would not abide by the conditions set for that operation, then Mr Garrett “would himself” be breaking the law and should be condemned for so doing.
I would like to see some “hard” evidence put forward to support Brown’s and others statements, otherwise they are just shooting off at the mouth at something that doesn’t exist!
Yes I think this is good. I will be voting to reduce the term limits from 8 to 4 years. I would’ve voted against a proposal to completely abolish the upper house.
I’m undecided on cutting the numbers in the lower house, I’ll have to read more about the disadvantages. The benefit of course is that it would reduce the chance of the Greens winning seats.
Careful ShowsOn bob and Oz wont like that last comment LOL!
You do get the impression that is why Rann wants it, don’t you.
No, it believed in nationalisation of monopolies.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_referendum,_1911_(Monopolies)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_referendum,_1913_%28Monopolies%29
Old news.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25688943-2682,00.html
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/31/2457246.htm
If given the three choices, keep, reform to 4 years/half members, or abolish, i’d have voted reform. I don’t like them being there for 8 years.
The Greens should still be at equal representation. With 4 years and half members, it’s the same quota. Whether the Greens have 2 MPs in a 22-member house, or 1 MP in an 11-member house, it’s still one eleventh of seats.
Somehow I think Rann prefers the Greens over FF or Xen ind.
Traditional land owners attitudes?
Or economic realists? Do we have the population/energy demand to support a nuclear power station?
407
He lost his pants, tripped over and accidently fell into a woman who wasn’t his wife. Several times by all accounts.
SNIP: Immature comment deleted – The Management.
419# And then confessed to talkback radio two months from the election didn’t he?
Glen and GP will be pleased to see this.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mediadiary/index.php/australianmedia/comments/sbs_doco_on_liberals_digs_up_depth_and_freshness/
411
If the SALC has its term cut to 4 years then it should be elected from 3 seven member electorates.
Cutting the size of the SALC to 16 (but at once) would mean a quota of 6.25% which the Greens could get but two quotas would be 12.5% which is harder for the Greens than winning 8.33% two elections in a row but electing 21 at once would mean that a quota would be 4.76% with 2 quotas being 9.53 which is achievable by the Greens. Three quotas would be 13.89% which I think the Greens will acieve once they can attract left wing voters who currently vote Labor.
Somehow i think that doco will be negative, but still watchable as no doubt they’ll have ample footage of Mr Howard
422 says that a quota for 16 would be 5.88% and two would be 11.76% and a 4.55% quota for 21 at once and anyone who sees different needs to see a doctor.
Uranium mining has always been ALP policy, in fact Whitlam wanted to start a uranium enrichment industry in Australia.
The ALP then had the ludicrous “no new mines” policy, this was overturned by the ALP Conference, Garratt opposed the change and spoke out against it.
Conference changed the policy. Garrett lost.
Any environment minister must follow the law or face a challenge in court. Garratt can’t just say no.
The same will apply to Gunns pulp mill and the traveston dam (then the Greens will really scream).
Bob 1234 @ 394
” ‘The earliest Australian governments were ALP’
No they weren’t.”
That was a specific follow-on to your posting (@ 337), and is completely accurate in that context.
Andrew Fisher was Oz PM 1908–09, 1910–13, 1914–15. The time (1908) context and statement are:
Note 1908 – which actually predates the time at which “socialism” was used, pejoratively or otherwise, as a synonym for Marxism, esp Russian communism (I note that the GOP now use “liberal” in the same pejorative way). The dominance of Bolshevism after 1917 probably explains why “the first Labor government” was used, inc in Qld school history books, and they were originally published in the mid1920s (?1928). They were not revised through the Depression, War, or post war period – originally due to affordability & paper rationing, then because the new Social Studies course replaced it (c1952).
So in c1928 QLD, it was “The first Labor government”, and that government was in QLD!
. As, post-1980s, I kept up with OzHist from a predominantly forward-looking “Politics, Policy & Government” perspective, I don’t know what word post-1980 history books used; but from 1950-80, it was “Labor”.
“Early Labor were socialists. You cannot argue they weren’t.” I didn’t. I specifically stated, “The earliest Australian governments were ALP, which, although dominantly Fabian Socialist, also includes (sometimes dominantly) Utopian Socialists”
“Are you actually serious? Australian Labor was recognised as the first socialist government in the world. ”
You & I can’t have been reading the major Oz History books. It was always recognised as the World’s first Labor government. Many radical & working class political parties called themselves Labor/Labour, and still do.
For the information of members and their guests:
“Better PM ratings? They couldn’t get much worse!”
http://www.ozforums.com.au/viewtopic.php?id=5854
Well you need to remember that the S.A. parliament currently contains Dennis Hood, a person who thinks that Earth is 6000 years old.
Any constitutional reform that makes it harder for young earth creationists to be elected is worth supporting IMO.
Scorpio thanks for the heads up with the new Lib Doco
Scorpio
The use of sulphuric acid to leach uranium is not unusual. It is a relatively common technique. It was mentioned because it is common.
Just google ‘acid leaching’. Lots of documents…
Gary
So how do you back up your claim that Bob Brrown was attacking Garrett? You haven’t been able to provide any quotes, just your ‘impression’ of what went on. That’s not particularly useful.
8 years is too long. There is still a Democrat in our Upper House for Gosh sake! However I dunno about reducing the size to 16, thats getting pretty small and I don’t know if it could do all the work its meant to. I don’t care about paying for a few more pollies out of my taxes if it means better governance. Wouldn’t it be better to have an odd number though? say three electorates of seven?
Zoomster
Thanks for reply. Apart from the lack of a bit of foresight on the part of Bracks/Brumby, I think we are more or less on the same page.
Here are some things that the Bracks Government could do now:
1. Make strong representations to their Federal colleagues to remove all incentives to have children.
2. Make strong representations to their Federal colleagues to reduce immigration levels to zero (barring our national refugee intake obligations).
3. Develop a strategy for the eventual dismantling of the North/South pipeline. It could be a symbol of a state that is ready to come to terms with the limitations to the supply of fresh water. I note particularly that we will know when that happens when the state (a) takes into account predicted rainfall trends arising from CC and (b) natural variability.
4. Rate all new houses far more strictly on water. Ban all new houses that do not meet the ratings.
5. Price all water at full cost. Include full provision for long-term environmental costs.
Nuttall found guilty of receiving corrupt payments.
If its one electorate of 16 then it would be of benifit to Family First and micro-parties since with a quota of 5.88% getting one candidate elected becomes easier. However for the Greens it won’t be so good. Under the current system they’ll get 1 or 2 elected each election for a grand total of between 2 and 4. In the one electorate of 16 system they’ll get 1 or with a bit of luck 2 elected but will struggle to get 3 or more. The Greens may very well win 2 seats in 2010 for a total of 3 and 3 out of 22 is 13.6% of seats. In contrast 2 out of 16 is 12.5% of seats.
Three electorates of 7 would not be good for the Greens here but I still think its a good system. Although when I’m king I’ll have Hare-Clark in the Lower House and state-wide proportional in the Upper House.
The siren songs of nuclear and clean coal, the latest frontiers of the can-do technological fixers!
Earth as infinite source and an infinite sump for infinite consumption by an infinite number of humans. Its the vision thing!
France had to shut down or seriously reduce the production of electricity from about a third of its nuclear reactors during the recent mini-heatwave. The difficulty was that the waste water from the cooling towers would have cooked the local rivers. So France had to purchase electricity from the coal-powered plants in other parts of Europe.
France has yet to figure out how to capitalize the deconstruction and the reconstruction of the current fleet of ageing reactors, let alone allow for any growth in energy use. It has yet to figure out what to do with the 1 million tonnes or so of nuclear waste material it has.
That said, as pointed out above, nuclear does, and will have limited applications for limited purposes, as in Lucas Heights.
I wouldn’t mind seeing a decent analysis of the nuclear-for-fresh-water trade-off.
434
If there were three electorates of Seven then there would probably be two Adelaide only seats and a rest of SA (including outskirts of Adelaide). If the Greens do well on preferences then they could well get three MLCs.
Nuclear power has one huge problem – there is a finite amount of uranium. It will hit the “peak uranium” problem.
Maybe this is over 100 years away, but surely it is a “dead” technology.
Dig up (or ISL ) uranium and sell it to those who want it, but lets not get stuck with another technology that will fail because of finite resources.
Boarwar! I don’t mean to be rude but Steve Bracks is no longer premier of Victoria actually he is not longer even in parliament.
Bracks is playing with Goss in the TV wars. One for free to air, the other for pay.
Hu Saga continues while Cosssssie gave Turnbull a slap and “you fool” on Turnbull’s demand that Rudd picks up the phone and call Pres. Hu.
Just cannot imagine if Rio’s Hu is convicted for large scale corruption and sentenced to death by firing squad. Will Australians boycott the yum-cha and the Szechuan Chilli Prawns.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009-07/15/content_8428702.htm
From Our ABC re Garratt:
And check out the comments – the Green Mafia have been out in force.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/15/2626474.htm
Meanwhile, back at the Great Wall, the East is Rich:
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009-07/15/content_8430837.htm
mexicanbeemer @ 138
Thanks, my mistake.
Must have been a Freudian slip! Brumby is turning out to be a generally competent Premier, which is what really counts, but Bracks was more personally likeable.
The first comment in the above linked ABC article:
darakat:
Great minds think alike.
Fools seldom differ.
The Finnigans @442
And, scarily, they hold very significant sums in USA bonds & other investments.
Dubya Bush & his NeoCon/GOP’s legacy may be the financial hold China holds over the USA.
One of the challenges for the Greens is to get people to imagine them as a Government.
Until they manage this they will never form Government.
One of the advantages of being a minor party is that you can more or less say what you think. One of the disadvantages is that it makes you look a bit holier-than-thou and a bit impractical in the sense of not taking into account normal government business as being the art of the possible.
Ad hominem attacks on Garrett for behaving like a Minister should may glean a few greenish votes from Labor. They will not feed into the notion that the Greens can be imagined as a Government.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/15/2626474.htm
The right-wing noise machine is running full bore too. (As it does every day on ‘Replies’ to ABC News Online stories.
Quiz Qustion: When was (to the best of my knowledge) the only time the Shooters Party have had someone elected outside of NSW?
Finns & OzPol Tragic
Do we know how much of Australia’s foreign debt (at about $.7 trillion???) is held by China?
The Finnigans @ 440
“Just cannot imagine if Rio’s Hu is convicted for large scale corruption and sentenced to death by firing squad. Will Australians boycott the yum-cha and the Szechuan Chilli Prawns.”
No, Australians aren’t that stupid, though some RWDBs like to tell them they are. OTOH. I’ll eat more Szechuan (’chilli’ is superfluous) to support Uighurs: cumin chicken ’stick’ & shredded salt & red pepper-corn lamb.
T. H. Molotov @ 449
Well, the whole of the GOP, and substantial numbers of the Dems acting as de facto frontpersons for the NRA…
Never ?
Boerwar @ 450
1. You have to separate “foreign debt” into government & private. Almost all of it is private.
2. Government borrowing is usually (?always – I can’t recall the rules) underwritten by Bond issues. Despite Howard’s claims to the contrary, his government did borrow via bond issues – I did see the total around Election07, in a number of places. There might be some reason why these bond issues might have been good commercial practice.
As far as I know, there have been no Rudd bond issues yet, although that may be because I don’t read / deal with whatever papers/ brokers with promotional material. They used to be advertised in papers. Bond buying had become a patriotic habit during WW II and it was how my parents’ generation (despite what Menzies’ 22% inflation did to their War Bonds) & much of mine saved for retirement. Skyrocketing inflation after 1970 seemed to ‘kill’ them off. During high domestic inflation it pays to run up (domestic) debt to purchase assets which hold (or better) their value.
3. Most private borrowing is “commercial in confidence”. Much of it is virtual “paper” – computer-based interbank transfers. Government is not responsible for this, and it’s (as far as I know) unregulated, and has been for quite some time.
Finns @ 440
Interesting link.
The last Australian Government was a tad ambiguous when it came to the death sentence, wanting to play both sides of that particular fence.
The HuNo2 story is now feeding directly into the story that Turnbull engages his mouth before his brain.
The OO’s theme the other day that Hu is Innocent, the Chinese Government is Guilty and it is all Rudd’s fault is starting to look a bit iffy as well.
My best guess at this stage: Some Chinese will be executed. HuNo2 will not be one of them.
Oh, dear. George Megalogenis takes the axe to the Libs claim of Labor debt that we are constantly bombarded with. ie. The Libs always have to clean up Labor’s debt. Labor can’t be trusted to run the economy. Labor Governments always run up hugh defecits and leave the economy in debt for the Libs to fix.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/good_tidings_on_debt_and_gdp/P25/
Huge, not hugh.
ruawake
I beg to differ.
Integral Fast Reactor nuclear power 100x as efficient as current nuclear reactors. There is enough uranium for 5000 years.
Nuclear is not “dead” technology. The new stuff is cutting edge.
Yeah, $56b of the so-called $90b Beasley’s black hole was Government bonds. I think Howard left $65b in Govt Bonds when he was chucked out.
Diog
A Integral Fast Reactor is at the same stage as clean coal.
And deficits, not defecits – I think that’s something you do in a toilet.
Diogenese @ 458
The IFR story would be nice if it were true because it is seems to me to be the only story that looks remotely like addressing AGW in sufficient scale, even if a bit late.
Why are the governments who are gearing up for huge investments in nuclear power plants not building IFR’s?
It’s closer than generating baseload electricity through wave power.
OzPol Tragic @ 454
How much does it matter whether o/s debt is public or private?
The only test IFRs have resulted in the core melting – the US tried to get a commercial scale one happening but failed.
Psephos
Not to forget wave-powered desal plants. There is an appealing symmetry.
This Firefox spell checker misses a lot of those.
For a supposedly educated person, I should be totally ashamed!
ruawake
I’ve got Blees’ IFR book but I’ve drifted off onto other areas (I’m reading Kynge’s book on the Chinese economy). I hope I can find out if they’re any good after that but they sound a lot more promising than CCS.
Perhaps GG is doing better with his copy.
No-one would be happier than me if we could have wave-powered desal plants and baseload electricity generated by billions of white mice running around inside wheels (now there’s a good idea!). But alas these things are not going to happen for some time yet, maybe decades. And meanwhile, doomsday approaches.
scorpio @ 459
Howard never did believe that Honesty is the best policy.
In real terms, it is unlikey that, unless something catastrophic (a C21 version of WW II) happens in the future no government will cap the Menzies’ Era debt, because it reflected pre-war borrowing, as well as borrowing for WW II, massive infrastructure inc the Snowy, Malayan Emergency, Korean & Vietnam War. I think the bulk of this (much held in long term bonds – c10-20/25 years) was paid off by the mid-70s, although Bonds continue to be issued.
That aside – in ‘real’ terms, the debt left by Treasurer Howard caps anything Whitlam’s, Hawke’s, Keating’s or Howard’s (as PM) governments left.
If there was a worldwide government cooperation with war footing spending then climate change could be reduced. It would clear up the GEC (FKA GFC).
Psephos @ 469 Why only white ones? The drought’s being over, and several good grain season’s, we’ve been overrun by enough greyish-brown ones to power a sun. And the problem with being Green about cats? The neighbourhood puss pop is down to one sad old moggy? Poison baits.
I thought it was only white mice that could be trained to run around inside wheels.
473
There are lots of ways of generating renewable energy that are much more efficient than little animals on treadmills. Solar,wind, tidal, and wave for starters.
scorpio @ 467. I stopped using spell-checks once they started automatically “correcting” my perfectly correct English/Oz spelling with #@@##!! USA spelling & putting in/ taking out apostrophes. Even if I poured writing into old progs with red-underlining, I still get driven mad. If it’s serious writing, I pay a not-picker friend to do the line editing.
No, Tom, there are lots of *ideas* for ways of generating renewable energy. None of them has yet been shown to have the capacity to generate baseload electricity. At the moment, white mice are just as viable a technology as renewables. Then there’s the turbine driven by giant fire-breathing bats from Mars, but that’s still at the planning stage.
Tom the first and best @ 471
“If there was a worldwide government cooperation with war footing spending then climate change could be reduced. It would clear up the GEC (FKA GFC).”
Yeah. But not as much as it would reduce your take-home pay. Taking home about half of your gross salary is not A Good Thing; trust me on that! And that’s salary in middle ranks of PS, business etc.
OzPol Tragic,
Most operating systems and programs allow you to chose the language for spell-check. If you’re not sure how to do this, there is a Help menu at the top of your screen (or use the F1 key).
Psephos @ 469
Wave-powered desal plants was tongue in cheek.
I now have very little hope that the we are going to avoid serious AGW consequences. I have done detailed posts elsewhere on why I think nuclear is not going to be cut it. I would be happy if it could but can’t see it happening at the scale or in the time required.
In the meantime, I bat away at those who wave ‘nuclear’ around as if it was some sort of magic wand.
Another swine flu death:
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25782902-5006301,00.html
Here’s the only acceptable nuclear power plant in action.
Yesterday, 12 European companies signed a 400 billion euro (560 billion dollar) initiative to built huge solar thermal power plants in Africa and the Middle East.
Munich Re, Deutsche Bank and Siemens are among the corporate giants that will form the consortium Desertec. By 2050, the solar farms may provide up to 15 percent of Europe’s electricity needs and a substantial portion of the power needs of the producer countries with carbon-free power.]
http://en.cop15.dk/news/view+news?newsid=1711
OzPol Tragic,
Yeah, it gets frustrating when it misses glaring errors and tries to correct words that don’t need to be corrected. “Their” and “they’re” is just one example. If you accidently put a figure into a word like “thi5s” it doesn’t register.
This one doesn’t like “accidently” and always tries to correct “Turnbull”. Of course Turnbull often needs correcting!!! lol
Steve @ 482
It is a very good story because there is lots of real capital on the table…
… but ‘maybe’ 15% by 2050 is not going to cut it.
A first baby step in a long process no doubt, Boerwar. I’m sure that now it is at the stage of commercial, it will develop competitors with even better technology.
Ruawake, do you have a reference for this assertion?
Steve Fielding must think he’s on a winner here! That looney sceptics/deniers conference he went to recently seems to have really won him over.
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/breaking-news-national/australia-vulnerable-to-climate-change-20090715-dkun.html
Yep.
I once wrote an article about Neal Blewett, in which his name was changed to Neal Bluetit throughout. It was spotted by a layout artist just before it went to press.
Steve @ 484
I sincerely hope you’re right…
Give Up?
A Shooters Party candidate was elected 16th out of 16 representitives of Victoria at the Republic Constitutional Convention. Over 2% of the vote thanks to the donkey.
Spelling checkers always struggle to detect a mis-used word. The anus for those errors remains with the author.
steve
We couldn’t do that because it’s not economically viable with carbon at $10 a ton but if our target goes up from 5% to say 20% after Copenhagen, there will be a lot of number crunching. Obviously it will be much more cost-effective in Oz as you don’t need the huge infrastructure just to get the power from Africa to Europe.
Scorpio @ 487
Thanks for that bit of light relief.
Really, Al Gore should meet with Fielding and spend five minutes showing Fielding how to hold his graphs the right side up.
And it would be?
Is it really possible for Fielding to be this stupid or deluded?
Al Gore goes into hiding because he is scared of Fielding even though he put himself through the rigors of running for POTUS. Fielding struggles to make coherent statements in the Senate.
I guess Fielding is taking the course he is for niche votes and not because of any belief in what he is saying, if so he deserves an Oscar for great acting as he really does seem that stupid.
Why do we have to waste our hard earned money to keep on “rescuing” these idiotic poms. How much money now would The News of the World or Today Tonight would pay him to tell his “ordeal”:
http://www.smh.com.au/national/jamies-come-back-from-the-dead-dad-20090715-dl83.html
Turnbull seems to be loosing the plot completely now. Probably wants to see if he can get below Nelson’s 7% PPM. The hypocrisy being displayed here is breathtaking.
But because his corporate mates are all in favour of it, he says this!
http://www.watoday.com.au/breaking-news-national/garrett-power-passion-has-fizzled-libs-20090715-dkn5.html
And then he has the hide to say this!
I bet he would. And what about Howard for eleven and a half years?
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/rudd-wasting-money-on-jet-says-turnbull-20090715-dl37.html
Antony!!! lol
ruawake
That’s a different Reactor, although both use sodium. No-one has ever fully built an IFR.
This would be a report from the Canberra Times on the CSIRO report I first read in a Productivity Commission Report on Climate Change.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/local/news/environment/solar-is-a-real-option-csiro-report-says-sun-will-soon-match-coal/666801.aspx?storypage=2
Peter Van Onslen reviews the future leaders for the Libs. The despairing point being the future generation could be culled by Rudd at the next election. How bad for the Libs if they lose Pyne, Dutton and Keenan but return, Bronwyn Bishop, Wilson Tuckey and Phillip Ruddock.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25782843-28737,00.html
And no one ever will. Liquid metal cooled reactors using 40% fissile fuel will never be economically viable. Like clean coal.
Garrett doesn’t have to be in the ALP. He is wealthy enough not to need to be there unless he feels he is making a difference. The evidence is – to quote him from an answer in Parliament, which I’m sure was not misleading – that he has a day job he relishes.
To quote another Environment Minister, John Thwaites, it’s better to be in power and be able to get some of what you want done than not be and achieve nothing.
As someone who has had a popular profile, has been a grassroots activist and has been involved in the green movement, Garrett would have a very clear idea of whether or not he is being effective in his present position.
On uranium mining:
genuinely still torn on this one. One bit of me can’t get over the waste problem, the elephant in the room ignored in so many of these discussions.
On the other hand: many countries in Europe etc are not big cc impacters because they use nuclear power, powered by Australian uranium. If we don’t sell it to them they either (a) source their uranium from a country which might not be so concerned about environmental impacts of mining; or (b) close down their np plants and replace them with coal burning ones.
So I’m still procrastinating.
And I admit I might be being a NIMBY.
OTOH, my understanding is that it would take too long for nuclear power to be up and running effectively in Australia and that that time period would be better spent developing renewables. If we chose nuclear over other renewables, we will end up in much the same situation we are with coal, where it is too seductive to stay with what’s there and thus we miss the chance to develop something better.
Boer, I’d love to continue our discussion, but we are getting separated by too many posts!
….and you swore that nothing would come between us…
Scorpio and others,
If your web browser is deficient in checking spelling, writing in your preferred Word program and copying to the comments box is not a bad solution.
That said, some of the mis pellings are wonderful!
IFRs only need 20% fissile material to begin the process. Once it’s going it can use a much lower concentration for the “breeding”.
Jamie Briggs must think the people of SA don’t want economic development in that state. I wonder what his electors think of his position?
http://www.watoday.com.au/breaking-news-national/garrett-power-passion-has-fizzled-libs-20090715-dkn5.html?page=2
A reference , of course
So Briggs is criticising Garrett for doing something that presumably the Liberal Party is in favour of? Bizarre.
GG, The Liberals can then rightly claim it is the real GOP (Grand Old Party)
Interesting statements from the Nuttal trial today:
and
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/15/2626845.htm
I wonder at what point people give something for nothing…
ON an unrelated matter interesting story in The Age today:
Good thing none of them gave him a ute…
http://www.theage.com.au/national/be-turnbulls-governor-for-55000-20090714-dk5x.html?page=-1
Somehow, the Greens and the Libs would not be so vocal if anyone else was Minister.
Agreed. Forget who the person is, focus on the decision. Syaing it’s a bad decision because Garrett sang The Dead Heart is as dumb as saying Rudd should be able to get Hu released because he speaks Mandarin.
From that article about Turnbull’s loyalty group,
It costs $5500 to be a “member”, $11,000 to be a “sponsor”, $16,500 to be a “patron”, $25,500 to be a “benefactor” and $55,000 to be a “governor”.
Sounds like the Loyal Order of Water Buffalos from the Flintstones.
From now on, I am going to say nice things about Glen and GP, maybe also the Greens:
http://tinyurl.com/lb253v
Is it possible to extract text from a pdf?
GG, does a Governor get to go to the Governor’s Pleasure and some S&M?
Yep, click on the arrow in the toolbar highlight thr text and then select copy – thjat’s unless the document is copy protected.
That’s one of the questions I’d like Erica Betz to ask in a Senate Committee hearing.
Just in case anyone is near coastal Eastern Victoria, we have a tsunami warning active between Lakes Entraance and Gabo island.
” Although major evacuations are not required, people are advised to get out of
the water and move away from the immediate water’s edge.”
http://www.bom.gov.au/tsunami/vic_alerts.shtml
I know its the middle of the night, but just in case……
Psephos, depends on how the PDF was created. If created the right way:
1. You can cut and paste
2. You can do “save as text” option under “File”
The Indo files can be saved as.
I see no arrow in the toolbar.
http://mediacenter.kpu.go.id/hasil-pemilu-2009.html?start=110
They can’t be saved as text.
You can put up a lot of solar panels for the price of a nuclear reactor; but if other countries are crazy enough to buy the stuff…….oh wait that is the stuff they build bombs out of. Oh well the beat goes on..
This is from the Masyarakat PDF:
Yes, I’m here at the beach on Gabo Island, up to my neck in freezing water, holding my laptop over my head, with a torch between my teeth. Thanks for the warning, I’ll go in now.
Psephos
Google PDF Zilla
Finns, how did you do that?
Like I said:
* Open in PDF Reader
* Go to “File”
* “Save as Text” – make sure it is with txt extension
Psephos, the other option is File/Save page/ under file type, click all files, which is beneath the PDF option.
http://mediacenter.kpu.go.id/images/mediacenter/berita/SUARA_KPU/HASIL_PENGHITUNGAN_SUARA_SAH.pdf
When I go to “file” there is a “save as” option, but the only option is “safe as pdf”. There is no “save as text” option.
You might need to upgrade your PDF reader
There is a lookdown box in the line under the file name with “all files” lurking beneath it.
Pseph – I aways suspected you blogged from an offshore Pirate location – now I know
BTW – another earthquake just reported off NZ, same spot, almost same size.
Impressed with Rudd/Labor twitter marketing machine – each day numbers following increasing and up around 180,000+ now compared to Turnbull/Liberals 13,000+. Even with the benefit of incumbency that comparison has gotta hurt the Turnbull ego.
Flintoff retires
http://www.foxsports.com.au/story/0,8659,25787576-23210,00.html
When???!! More people want “uncommitted” to lead the LIberal Party than Turnbull; he should be a bit more circumspect using “when”. I think there’s a few “ifs” he needs to get past before “when” will have any likelihood of being right.
O Possuim I am not happy I was taking a nice walk and saw one of your lovely cousins who decided to run up a tree and above my head and did a poo!
…
It won’t save as anything but a pdf, and it won’t let me select text.
I didn’t know I had a PDF reader. Now I look I see it is called “PDF Complete Viewer Special Edition 3.0.73″
Obviously it is not very special and not very complete!!!!!
sounds like the Liberal Party.
Go to “Help”, see if there is the “Check for Update” option, if so click on that to see if can update itself with the latest version of the PDF reader.
Adam @ 464:
For one reason or another I know a little bit about baseload power.
You may find this illuminating.
http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/rp/2008-09/09rp09.htm#baseload
A short google search will offer up plenty of other sources about the myth of baseload power, but the australian parliamentary library is a fairly even handed source.
That article in todays Australian daily Liberal about that parties leadership was depression for the Liberals but in reality will the ALP win all three seats, I am not sure the ALP can win Stuart for even in the rann-sides the Liberals held most of the seats in Adelaide’s east.
Dutton has a clear fight on his hands in Dickson which I imiage will be moved further into suburbia after the current redistribution.
The big problem the Liberals have is on all the big issues they have chooen to take the wrong policy approach, and has we know come election time the Govenrment will use Tuurnbulls opposition to its successful economic policies.
Pseph, download Adobe reader here
http://get.adobe.com/uk/reader/otherversions/
OK I am buying PDF Zilla which seems to work fine.
Thnx for advice.
542 Pseph
With a pdf reader you should be able to copy and save to a Word file – but format will probably be crap.
Failing that you should be able to mark and delete what you don’t want then save the rest as pdf.
You know it’s a quiet night when the big topic of discussion is how to work a pdf file. I guess a few bludgers are closet State of origin fans
“cop & save” = “cop & paste”
Peter, that looks interesting, thanx.
Story from the New York Times:
‘HONG KONG —The former chairman of China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation, the oil refining giant better known as Sinopec, was convicted of corruption by a court in Beijing on Wednesday, according to Xinhua, the official news agency.
Chen Tonghai, 60, was given a suspended death sentence for taking $28.7 million in bribes, and Xinhua, citing the court ruling, said “all his political rights were deprived for life and all his personal property confiscated.” He is expected to serve a life term in prison.
Mr. Chen pleaded guilty in the case, paid back the amount of the bribes, and helped prosecutors with other investigations, Xinhua reported.
China continues to be plagued by high-level cases of misconduct involving business leaders, party bosses and government officials.’
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/16/business/global/16sinopec.html?_r=1&ref=business
Grog, i have stopped watching the State of Orifice long time ago.
Corporate Counsellors in Canberra’s Tony Lamond writes in today’s Crikey:
‘The arrest of the Rio Tinto executives is clearly related to the previous intense negotiations on the price of iron ore and the fact that Rio Tinto did not buckle to Chinese steel mill demand for significant price reductions. Now the Chinese mills are refusing to take the iron ore for which they had previously contracted. Rio Tinto is seeking billions in compensation. These contracts are based on a normal “take or pay” concept and reflect the that fact that iron ore producers must invest vast sums in both production capacity, stock piles and shipping capacity to service a contract — and they forgo other sales opportunities once their future production capacity is reached under the contracts negotiated.
So it is not only the lack of understanding of Western commercial intelligence processes that has lead to China’s irritation, it is their unwillingness to accept that contracts have a de facto force of law — but seeing the legal process in China always “bends” to political guidance there is an unwillingness to accept any enforcement of a contract by an independent authority, e.g.: a Western Court. In the final analysis, China sees “might as right”.
What we are actually witnessing, in what is an initial small scale skirmish, is the beginning of a long running economic and resource trade conflict — the first economic and resource “shadow war” of the 21st century. If Australia continues with the “Mr Nice Guy” limp-wristed DFAT approach it will simply be stomped on. A hard line by Australia can certainly be expected to result in economic retaliation. It will cost us, but not nearly as much as what we lose in a weakened negotiation position and lower prices over many years. That is the Chinese objective.’
#200
Did anyone notice the apostrophe crime on The Chaser tonight?
PJ Nichol
Just flicked through the summary of what looks to be an interesting report.
Inter alia it noted that the differences in cost between renewables and coal virtually disappeared if the costs of ‘cleaning’ coal are added to the coal costs.
The AGW costs of coal were not considered? That is, they were defined as an externality?
Boerwar: No aitch in Nicol…
That aside, I am not the author of that report, I just had a good read of it last year, in my professional capacity…
While that may be true, you still have a bucketload of coal power stations that would need to be retrofitted anyway as renewables couldnt possibly replace them in any short to medium time frame
PJ Nicol
Sorry about the spello.
Look, I am probably becoming some kind of Kruddy fanboi, but does he know exactly what he is doing, or what?
I thought his move today was a lesson for all… perfectly delivered, with a gentle reminder that the Chinese have an awful lot at stake in this one, delivered without bluster, and quite politely.
Yay we have full pdf conversion facility.
Boerwar, the trouble with reports like that is that we cannot take them at face value. Mr Chen may be guilty of a genuine crime, or he may be guilty of doing only what everyone else does but is being pinged for it for political reasons, or the whole thing may be a total fabrication. We have no way of knowing because China does not have an independent judiciary or a free press. The same is true of Stern Hu.
NEWSFLASH:
In relation to the lack of warning on the earthquake and tsunami, the Leader of the Federal Opposition, Malcolm Turnbull, has apologised, on behalf of all Australians, to the people of New Zealand and Victoria. “One phone call was all it needed , Kevin Rudd – why did you let us all down?”. The Shadow Foreign Minister, Julie Bishop, is looking into the matter.
END OF NEWSFLASH.
the hammaock is a rockin, dont bother knockin
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/costello-says-many-urging-him-to-stay-20090715-dlew.html
NEWSFLASH:
Julie Bishop, Liberal Deputy Leader, has tonight told reporters that if the tsunami expected to hit the East Coast around 10pm does not eventuate, that “this will be another example of Labor grandstanding, making a catastrophe out of nothing for partisan political purposes.” In the event a tsunami does occur Ms. Bishop promised that the Opposition would be “closely monitoring” all relief works to ensure that “pork-barrelling between Labor and their mates in the CFMEU does not replace reasoned infrastructure rebuilding.” She continued, “Australians are sick to death of the rampant cronyism that has characterized this government.”
Elsewhere, Tony Abbott, whose electorate is in a Sydney coastal area, said he was toxically bored with the whole thing.
Detailed Programatic Specificity.
Bushfire, if you not careful, they’ll hire you.
With hair and the dryer to deal with it.
I won’t take the job unless Acerbic gets one too.
Where’s everybody gone?
Not swimming, I hope.
NSW 28 defeat QLD 16
What a game! Boy oh boy, Mexicans, now that’s a body contact sport. And it’s the only part of the game that Rupert dosen’t own.
Turnbull must be wondering where a wooden stake is when you need one.
At what?
I didnt know Rugby League involved heavy weight boxing?
28 july will go down in infamy
Diog,
Hopefully, theECB will be so distraught that they will continue to select him in this series.
“At what?”
Now that’s a real game for men. Not like the one where you see blokes like Sam Newman wearing a fairy costume and Warwick Capper in pink tight shorts.
Is this the one where they stick their fingers up each others’ bottoms, then?
Dario 558
I agree that is a serious problem but in fact it looks very doubtfull that Clean Coal technology, even if it works, can be retrofitted to existign coal plants. It changes the thermodynamics of the cooling process completely. Its really only practical for new plants. So we need to start building alternatives fast.
Plus coal power plants don’t last forever. They wear out. So they all have to be replaced eventually anyway. In fact, two of the worst brown coal plants in Victoria are pretty much beyond their economic life anyway. So survivial-of-the-planet nazis like myself are not being inreasonable arguing they should be shut down. Even without CC they’d be on their way out.
Or the one where they watch each other pork unconscious women in hotel rooms? I can never remember which game that’s part of. Do they get points for that?
Don’t worry, you’re just becoming a part of the ghastly Pollbludger clique
Psephos
Yes but they do that in a very manly, and not at all homophobic way. Just like when they pack down in a scrum
Anything to get the right result Psephos.
My last comment applied to Psephos’ 577. Abuse of women is not funny IMO.
Now, now Psephos. Both codes are guilty in that department.
I dont see many Union players doing what League players have done
I’m sure it’s not intended to be funny. I believe it’s done for team bonding, which is a very serious business. They can’t actually have sex with each other (not when anyone’s watching anyway), but mass porking of unconscious women is the next best thing. AFL teams get the same result by jumping off piers into freezing water. It’s a Sydney/Melbourne cultural difference, I guess.
I think the main difference between League and Union is that at the Rugby you get abused by a better class of drunk. A bit like a Carlton game.
Glen the punch up looked worse than it really is. Although let’s hope Price is OK after Waterhouse hit him late.
Psephos 586
Sadly I think you are right.
Um, I thought League and Union were *both* kinds of Rugby, only with different sets of rules. Am I still not getting this right?
Adam @ 577: Still laughing…
I think you are right – Rugby League and Rugby Union are both kinds of Rugby, but I recall hearing people refer to Union as “the Rugby”. Apology if I am wrong.
I think after tonight it can’t be questioned that Rugby League is without doubt THE toughest body contact sport in the world. Those hits, on almost every tackle were bone shattering. These blokes do not wear any of the padding that they do in American football. We gave those QLDers a good spanking tonight.
Well that sounds more like fun. Or is the spanking, like the bottom-fingering, entirely not-gay?
We gave those QLDers a good spanking tonight.
As Psephos hinted, that seems to be a pretty strong desire of all those involved in the sport.
Union and League are roughly the same. At some point it comes down to parting the buttocks and shoving the head up. However, only Union has the rolling maul, which really does look like cross-country bum sniffing.
Thanks Antony, I knew you’d be across the finer points.
I did go to a rugby game once, in 1971 when we were trying to stop the Springboks tour. A police horse trod on my foot and I retired hurt.
Socrates, Rugby is 15-a-side game and until the 90’s was non-professional. Rugby League is a 13-a-side game and has always been professional. I grew up with Rugby. A definition to help you – “Rugby League is a thug’s game played by thugs whilst Rugby is a gentleman’s game played by thugs”
Gusface!! “28 july will go down in infamy”
That has happen already has for that was the day the one and only Mexicanbeemer entered the world!!
I don’t think there are too many people who could have survived the sort of spanking that we saw tonight.
Spanking? Sounds very Tory!
Scarpat, to give you an indication of the difference in standard between the two codes, a NSW or QLD Rugby League team could beat the Waratahs or the Reds in a game of Union – easily!
Whereas the Nationals would say that what a man does in the privacy of his own stable is nobody else’s business.
You’d be surprised. I’ll lend you some videos.
*on that tasteful note I will depart*
Centre, Unfortunately, you need the ball to win the game and the Rugby League team would never win a scrum or lineout.
BTW for anyone interested in economics, I have started reading Animal Spirits by Akerloff and Shiller. So far its very good. Anyone frustrated by the disconnect between economic theory and real world behaviour of human beings would enjoy it. It is supposed to have profound policy implications, but I haven’t got that far yet.
And for all the Leigh Sales Tragics – she’s on Twitter
http://twitter.com/LEIGHSALES
Scarpat they probably wouldn’t need to win a scrum or lineout. It could be safer to just give them the ball.
*crashing*
Centre, yes indeed!
MB
lets just say we shall wait and see.
aamoi
I understand certain events [beside your b/day] are planned.
if I was a cautious, rational man, I would get all my ducks in a row
(or bsd’s)
I find it astounding that the Oz can sink that low that it can allow comments such as this to be published on Paul Kelly’s blog. Someone left open the door of the asylum again it seems!
Paul Kelly takes a few liberties with this piece also, considering the potential ramifications if this issue escalates out of control.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25783304-12250,00.html
That comment was so funny when I read it I was wondering whether some smart-aleck wasn’t baiting Kelly.
Wouldn’t do any good, because today was a good day for Kelly. His article was reasoned, and reasonable. OK, so it was written from a mildly critical slant, but you couldn’t say it was particularly unfair. He made some quite valid points and the article hung together as a rational piece.
What with George Megalogenis’s recent efforts, the inimitable Jack The Insider, Kelly today and even occasionally Shanahan (of late) it seems they’ve heeded some of the criticism (perhaps some self-criticism too, per Hartigan) levelled at them lately and are attempting to clean up their act a little. One swallow doth not a summer make, of course and it could all just be a fluke. But fingers crossed that we might get some proper analysis, as opposed to the usual incomprehensible braying they usually dish up as “brilliant journalism”.
Milne and Albrechtsen are now being positioned as the Looney Right columnists at the OO, with perhaps Michael Stuchbury coming up the rear (as it were).
Psephos @ 564
Agreed. It makes working out a sensible way forward difficult.
BB @ 612
The last line of Kelly’s article is intriguing. What concessions?
Exxon to invest up to $600 million in researching the use of algae, including possibly pond scum, to make biofuel. GMO algae may be critical. Gives relative figures for biofuel production from various existing crops:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/14/business/energy-environment/14fuel.html?em
Figures on the extent to which drop in participation rate and increase in part-time work are masking employment reality in the US:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/15/business/economy/15leonhardt.html?em
So you can make biofuel out of the Journalists of the OO (excluding George of course)?
Tom
All that Rugby chat & nary a thought for the great Head Master who started it to give his lads an all-weather outlet (somewhat less deadly that Eton’s wall-game) for all that pent-up teen energy …. taught Tom Brown & sacked Harry Flashman … borrowed the Mandarin Chinese exam system to give the same boys the same thrilling competition in the classrooms (no, I didn’t make that up)… and sired Matthew, who (as well as writing a dozen or so excellent poems wrote volumes of the most dreary) introduced those exams (and rugby) to public schools through all England and well beyond .. tho I remember the father for the first versions of schoolbooks that turned Latin into an exciting trip through the funniest, wildest, goriest, battle-strewn episodes in Roman History.
Let’s hear it for Dr Tom Arnold, the answer to the questions, “Who invented exams?” and “Who invented Rugby (both codes)?”
Here we go. As predicted, the media circus has begun.
* An innocent pommy boy got “lost” in nasty Aussie bush
* “Lost” for 12 days surviving on nuts and berries.
* “The search, described by police as one of the largest in recent memory”
* A media friendly and chatty father – potential of a media tart
* a dorky looking mother
* all is lost, father at the airport, then bang bang bang, last minute rescue. how dramatic.
* It’s all from mother England
It’s all there, just as a Hollywood script would have been:
http://www.smh.com.au/national/my-boy-x2026-back-from-the-dead-20090715-dlj2.html
Just watch the millions and millions. He should have got stuck in and chomp a live wallaby to survive, if so the price tag would have gone thru the roof.
Excuse me from puking.
“AFL teams get the same result by jumping off piers into freezing water. It’s a Sydney/Melbourne cultural difference, I guess.”
Pfft! Tell that to Carlton, Melbourne…or any team pre the Demitriou revolution actually. Not including the amateur club which just had its pre game warm up performed by a stripper.
I can’t believe all you ALP romantics aren’t all over League! Classic working man’s under dog story, full of great characters and sticking it to the establishment. A taster: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_rugby_league
Another sort of interesting historical RL site: http://www.rl1908.com/
Proof that Rudd cant win with the media. After two weeks of critcising Rudd for not intervening, jennifer hewitt in the OO saying his harsh tone yesterday may misfire….
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25788837-5013404,00.html
I agree with Andrew that politicians will get criticised whatever they say and do, but that is a good thing. As the good book says
Woe to you when all speak well of you, for that is what their ancestors
did to the false prophets. (luke 6:26)
Lack of criticism means the person has no principles and is simply seeking to be popular.
The Finnigans @619
I found your reaction the nth degree of nasty, and hope you’re not actually an Australian, because I’m ashamed that any fair-minded Aussie would stoop to that.
If it were your son?
And that couldn’t possibly be Kevin “economic conservative and keynesian” Rudd could it…
He’s the least principled of all Labor PMs. But at least he has more principles than Liberal PMs like howard.
Ho hum. Exactly what the far left / old left said about Hawke, Whitlam, Chifley, Curtin, Scullin, Fisher and Watson. Plus ça change…
Maybe that’s because with, more or less, each one, Labor moved progressively to the right.
Guess I can’t be that far off if the left agrees.
Now, anyone with real conviction on this would back that comment up with detail.
Gary,
Bob doesn’t do detail or justification. That would require some sort of thinking.
I’m assuming bob that you use this comment to show Rudd has no principles? Does that mean a peace loving man that would harm no-one under ordinary circumstances but goes to war and kills is also a person without principles?
The clique gets so defensive whenever I question Labor. So predictable.
Bob,
You get so defensive when we question your moronic abuse. So predictable.
A very weak response bob. All I was doing was asking you to justify your contention and obviously you can’t. Enough said.
Because I see no point. Whenever I justify I just get more abuse. Why waste the time when nothing productive comes of it.
Well why bring it up in the first place? I realise you didn’t start the “topic” but why make a general statement without being prepared to back it up with justifications? Is it just to get the response you rail against?
Because i’ll make my point like everyone on here does. But i’m not going to waste time with the back and forths.
I see where the chip on the shoulder comes from now bob. You’re prepared to do the “one liners”, get the response you know you’re going to get and fight back by trying to denigrate people rather than arguing a fully worked justification.
T R O L L
bob1234 @ 627 wrote:
.
In both cases, that would be overly-simplistic.
Phone call. Excuse errors.
By 1980, with the world moving into post-industrial production, management and workforces, and many of the old working classes’ children & grand-children heading for (or, in my case, graduated from) universities, the ALP and TUs, both products of the Industrial Era, having achieved most of their original goals, faced a future of declining relevance unless they adapted.
By then, studies had been undertaken of other institutions facing similar problems; in particular the fate of certain RC teaching orders whose aim – to educate children (usually Irish RC in anglophone colonies & former ones) – into the same positions WASPS occupied in the PS and professions (esp law) had been fulfilled, and who had been challenged by Vatican II to modernise and widen their scope.
Among the many studies I read (as a background to the Hawke’s union & political reforms) were several based on intensive studies at a Victorian provincial Christian Brothers’ school. CB’s original aim was also the one stated above, and they had achieved it, and these were fascinating ethnographic studies of what takes place as people watch familiar ground shift from under them, to be replaced with the unfamiliar, and the knowledge that the shift would continue, and continue to be ever more unfamiliar.
Whitlam’s reforms had achieved most of the “old” ALP’s aims; though some (esp Medibank) were weakened by Fraser. But as the 70s switched to the 80s, the underlying “realities” of ALP, Liberal and Country/National parties were shifting as far and as swiftly as those of the Christian Brothers’:
* The computer-based production & communication revolutions heralded the changes that are now part of our reality – although many have yet to grasp that ‘robots’ can be small, have no resemblance to any living thing and becoming ubiquitous.
* Post-industrial “roboticised” factories, a shift in major employment from industrial to service industries, “off-shoring” improving computer & communication technology etc, would significantly reverse industrialism’s “huge factories” until much work could be done “from anywhere” (inc at home) presaging a rise in individual contractors.
* Reforms needed to keep Australian Higher and Further Ed & Training would massively increase the cost of education.
* Broad-acre farming and other new machine technologies (and drop in the number of farm employees), a rising Green movement – originally to reverse salinity, then to conserve water – “animal activism” and seed, hormone, antibiotic & other patents, as well as GM technology and others changed the nature of farming – and of the pool of potential Country/National voters.
* NeoCon ascendancy replaced the old “patent, but share for the world’s profit” research ethic with a “patent for my/our own outrageous enrichment” “ethic” (if you could call it that). Cost of medical diagnosis & medications skyrocketed. Lifespans, especially of the ill, increased rapidly, as did the cost of keeping the ill alive.
And the above are a small part of the whole (currently) and still shifting bases on which political parties build their platforms.
Joh BP was probably the first to notice the possible effects of “new farming” on the Country Party, ensuring that his new “National Party” had a non-urban base. While he had a gerrymander – and hatred of the Liberals & some Libs’ cupidity – to achieve it, at least he saw the problem.
Hawke-Keating reforms created the conditions and economic reforms needed to make the shift from Industrial to post-industrial, and I assume Rudd will continue that.
Liberals, on the other hand – like their USA & UK colleagues – reverted to what was, in essence, Victorian-Era commercial & industrial practices, smashing industry (in the UK so fast that, in only a few years between visits, one watched whole shipyards & factory-towns close down) resulting in a return to Dickensian conditions of unemployment, poverty & homelessness. Whle hewson might have taken Libs to the future, Howard took it back to the 1950s, hence its current problems.
If you’re still thinking in terms of “right” and “left” as they were before 1983, you’re “doing a Howard”, thinking in terms of a past as irrevocably gone as England’s industrial might – which is what created those terms, their denotation & connotation. There is no going back, as, in 1809, there was no going back to a pre-industrial past and its Whig /Tory politics as they were refined by C18’s Willamite and Jacobite realities.
Here’s the new question: What are the characteristics of the post-industrial “centre”, “left” and “right”?
Until you can define those, you really can’t judge.
I don’t waste my time because I know the clique won’t listen. I have the right to express my views on here just like everyone else, even if I don’t have the pollbludger conformist opinion.
Dario, in all fairness to bob he is a regular and contributes to conversations.
Doesn’t make him any less a troll
bob this very statement shows a “victim” mentality. The old “I’ll stay and fight back by underhand sniping” rather than the “attack full on and try and convince people that what I say is true” attitude.
Don’t get me wrong when I say this bob because I’d rather you stay than go but why do you stay if you, firstly, really don’t want to engage in any real way and secondly, you don’t like the responses you get? Hell, I used to engage and argue on Bolt’s blog until I realised I was pushing the well known up hill and decided I’d had enough. I wasn’t enjoying it at all so I left.
It’s one thing to say you don’t agree with Rudd, but to say he has no principles is just ridiculous. If he had no principles he’d have stayed with KPMG and made himself very rich. Instead he went into politics, which meant that his wife had to give up business as well. It meant exposing himself and his family to an endless cycle of abuse and denigration by ignorant and malevolent people. He did this because he has a lifelong commitment to Labor and its principles. Of course he’s also ambitious and pretty ruthless, but those qualities are harnessed to very clear ethical and political values.
What you really mean, bob, is that Rudd doesn’t share *your* values, and you in your arrogance think that *your* values are the only ones any decent person could possibly hold.
Tried and failed.
So is hey an economic conservative or keynesian?
We really still don’t know Kevin Rudd. How do you define his views? More complicated than ever.
Did anyone watch ‘Australia Story’ over the last 2 Monday nights?
It was about Peter Andrews and how he can re hydrate the land. He is not an academic, he just uses the lie of the land and like a Beaver he blocks the natural water flow so that when it rains the water is caught and dispersed to the surrounding land area. He also plants, mulches and lets vegetation grow so that the water remains on the land. He is supported by the previous GG and also Hervey Norman.
I thought that the Greens would be out their supporting Peter Andrews as the work he is doing is working. Even though the bureaucrats are against him as they don’t like the way he lets all sorts of vegetation grow, they would rather clear the vegetation which of coarse then after it rains the water just runs away and takes the soil with it.
The expression “economic conservative” can have two meanings. It can mean “an adherent of classical conservative economic theory”, or it can mean “one who is in favour of fiscal prudence.” To my knowledge Rudd has never claimed to be the former, and it would be pretty odd for someone who held such views to be leader of the Labor Party, since Labor has always been the party of state intervention in the economy – one of the few things on which Labor policy has not changed for a century. Rudd made it clear during the campaign that he is an economic conservative in the second sense. It was certainly clear to me that that was what he meant. That position doesn’t preclude resort to Keynesian stimulus when the circumstances call for it, as they clearly do at present.
You’ll have to do better than that bob.
Strangely enough, if you look at it in depth, it seems to co-inside with a gradual trend by the community in general. ie. Labor rarely moved too far ahead of where the community stood or were prepared to go.
The move may have been to the right, but it always seemed to end up somewhere in the “centre” not to the right of the centre where the conservatives almost always seem to trend. ie. Radical Industrial Relations laws etc.
That would suggest that Labor under Chris Watson in 1904 was the furthest “left” Labor has ever been. And what was Labor’s policy in 1904? White Australia, the British Empire, protectionism, compulsory arbitration, universal military training. What view do you think Watson would have taken of multiculturalism, the family law act, same-sex couples, indigenous affairs, abortion law reform? It’s true that Labor at that time had a rhetorical commitment to “socialism” (a term capable of many definitions), but – as Lenin rightly pointed out – it was no more a real socialist party then than it is now.
I’d say pre-conscription-split Labor was the most left Labor has ever been, with the possible exception of Chifley, but that’s debateable.
In my personal opinion Rudd seems to the left of Hawke and keating on Economic issues. If we had a labor prime minister to the right of Keating then i am sure by now a body such as Australia Post would have already been at least partially privatised.
650
Most of the ALP PMs and leaders would have an apoplexy at the idea of the ALP selling the Commonwealth Bank which was created by the Fisher government to be a bank owned by the government/people rather than private shareholders. The current ALP is not pro-nationalisation and previous ALP governments have been (pre-Whitlam).
That’s because you’re defining “left” purely in terms of economics, which really means whether Labor was “socialist” in terms of favouring state control of the economy or not. On any other possible index of “left”, such as social policy, Labor is miles to left of where it was before World War I. Do you want to defend the leftness of the White Australia policy? Of Labor’s attitudes to women at that time? Of its treatment of indigenous people? I dare you.
They would have had apoplexy at abolishing the White Australia policy, too. Times change, policies change. But not for the Greens, obviously, who apparently think Australia should look something like Cuba – everyone equally poor.
There’s 3, not 2 axis’. Economic, social, and moral/traditional values.
There are too many axis being ground here.
The plural of axis is either axes or axises.
Anyway, what about foreign / defence policy? I would say the three broad areas of policy are
* economic policy / industrial relations
* foreign / defence policy
* social policy (health education environment)
I don’t what “moral/traditional values” has to do with it. They can be *applied* to any of three policy areas.
655
Continued public ownership of the Commonwealth Bank would not cause or have caused our economy to rot. It would mean that the government could have less profits more lending during the credit squeeze in the last year or so. The Government should now use the Australia Post outlets to set up a new public bank (and not sell it). The Greens as a party and the vast majority are not from the communism style equal poverty brigade but they do want a greater degree of fairness in the distribution of wealth.
Muskiemp @ 647
Indeed I did watch AS on Peter Andrews. There’s been quite a “green farming” shift to his ideas around here for quite some time with some spectacular results (esp during the drought). As I’d done some research on the quite different impacts of the Federation & Millennium droughts – the Fed drought was more serious (we have accurate temp & rainfall records) yet the land & population coped better; given the population was much greater (the av ’self-sufficient’ station employed c125 people & supported their kids – blacksmiths, cartwrights, builders etc as well as stockmen, cooks, teacher/s), the opposite should have happened – I was part of some discussion groups.
Andrews’ approach includes returning creeks & wetlands to their earlier condition, using whatever is currently available (inc weeds & willow trees – hence the bureaucrats & Greenies’ strongly negative attitudes, for differing reasons – and natural composting). There’s also been considerable local growth in organic farming, in conjunction with Andrews’ approaches to creeks, groundwater & natural composting.
IMO, much of the problem with “The Greens” Greenies is that they are middle-class urban (often inner-urban), with no real understanding of where or what the problems are in non-urban Australia; ie most of the Continent. There are cures for salinity that don’t include War on Irrigators; solutions for the Darling Basin that don’t include Taking Away Water Licences. There’s a need to understand that one sees about as much of a river as one sees of an iceberg. But the greatest need of all is to minimise evaporation. There’s a need to understand that huge & increasing clumps of mature vegetation which either retains water, or returns it to the atmosphere (as big gums do) and absorbs atmospheric carbon to build roots, trunks, leaves etc are essential to reversing far more than salinity.
There are ways to reverse desertification; but they include (tho not exclusively) Andrews’ methods. There are ways of reducing bushfire hazards, but they include minimising vegetation which not only fuels but thrives on fire – many of the existing native species. To preserve good vegetation, we need to declare war on ferals: feral horses, buffalo, goats, camels, deer, foxes etc, as well as rabbits, cats etc. But no sooner does this start than the hysteria (especially urban hysteria) begins, and the ferals are free to continue their destruction.
The irony is that, if we ploughed the money into revegitating the continent, especially with species of low flammability, primarily to maximise water retention, reverse salinity, renovate our exhausted soils and reverse desertification, we’d just about cancel out (more than cancel out, in a few decade’s time) our coal-fire power stations carbon-gas (tho not particulate) emissions. But hey, a lot of people are only interested in closing power stations and mines – to hell with the natural solutions.
When one attends meetings in which groups are arguing for the re-creation of wetlands (is swamps), but also the removal of cattle “because of methane”, one know there’s something weird going on in some green circles. No wonder people are so critical of the quality of out science education!
Now, now psephos
What has cuba done to you
Welcome to the 1920s. How would a state owned bank create a greater degree of fairness in the distribution of wealth? Would it hand out free money? Would it give interest free loans?
Kept 11 million people in poverty and oppression for nearly 50 years.
Arguments about what’s left and what’s right are very tedious. The Australian Labor Party has always been an odd party in international left politics.
It was never particulalry ’socialist’, though it did have a tradition of launching government enterprises to compete in monopolistic markets, especially in NSW and Queensland just before and after the First World War. Chifley’s attempt to nationalise the banks was a very strange deviation from the norm.
Nor was it ever particularly ‘welfarist’ in the European Social Democrat tradition. The NSW Unions opposed Lang’s introduction of child welfare for instance. Except for a brief period under Whitlam, Labor always supported means tested welfare.
The strongest ALP tradition has always been ‘labourist’, arguing for reasonable wage levels to support a wife and children. (Why the Unions opposed child welfare in the fear employers would cut wages as a result.) The unions rarely supported nationalisation but always supported maintaining high wages in the private sector.
You saw the continuation of that tradition in the 1980s with the Government-ACTU accord. And you also most of the larger private sector unions fail to back public sector unions in battles with the Hawke government. (eg everyone walked away from the Telecommunication Unions when they opposed the Hawke government dismantling the Telecom monopoly on telecommunication services.)
The various IR refoms under Brereton and then under Howard were an enormous challenge to the ‘labourist’ tradition by placing productivity central to wage settings. And the Howard government took a greater hand in welfare payments to support family dependants, removing another traditional aspect of ‘labourist’ wage setting principles.
That’s why its a little simplistic to try and measure all politics as being left and right.
Psephos @ 663
My totally rusted-on Tory sibling, far from delivering the expected rant, was quite (& quite vocally) impressed by how well Cuba had coped with 40+ years of the USA blockade.
Has this sibling ever actually been there?
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/chinas-economy-bounces-back-with-strong-growth-20090716-dmbu.html
You mean by the Cuban populace still driving 50 year old Buicks and Dodges?
Or by the Cuban government last year allowing the sale of 486 computers for US$3000?
Impossible! Everyone knows stimulus packages don’t work.
OzPol Tragic, I am pleased you watched Peter Andrews and thanks for your educated answer. The academic bureaucrats are so blinded by their prejudices they cannot see what is happening right in front of themselves. Luckily ex GG Michael Jeffrey is giving Andrews his full support. Why are so many Greens not giving him their support?
ShowsOn you cynic, that only applies to Labor government stimuli
There wouldn’t be a blockade if Castro hadn’t betrayed the people who put him in power and made himself a dictator. I’m opposed to the blockade, but let’s not confuse cause and effect.
Also, it’s quite common for conservatives to be impressed when they visit communist countries. All that discipline and conformity, jolly good stuff.
Shows On,
Who to believe, your own eyes or Liberal Party rhetoric?
Look, as Joe Hockey reminds us, statistics are just estimations of reality, they aren’t actually reality itself, therefore there is no good reason to believe them!
ANOTHER NEWSFLASH
In a follow-up to last night’s condemnation of Kevin Rudd’s failure to phone the people of Australia and New Zealand to warn them about the earthquake and tsunami, Malcolm Turnbull has confirmed that the situation is a lot more threatening than Rudd would lead us to believe. According to our rowing Tasman Sea reporter, Barnacle Bill, Mr Turnbull and his Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Julie Bishop, are now at the location, having driven their amphibious model of the Debt Truck to the very epicentre. Bill has informed us that Julie has just whacked on the snorkel and mask, and is now reviewing the scene. “However”, said Bill, “it’s a good job the TV cameras aren’t around, as it looks like Julie hasn’t had a bikini wax for a while”. But, according to Julie, “the damage caused by the earthquake is truly mind-boggling”. “But, to be fair”, she added, “the chasm opened up on the sea-floor is nowhere near as wide as Swannie’s cash-splash debt-causing deficit tsunami”. According to the latest reports from Bill at the earthquake zone, Julie is still looking into it.
END OF NEWSFLASH.
AC,
Any sitings of Harold Holt and a submarine?
Finns
My OH reckons that lost Pom is a con for cash, says there’s a pile of empty baked bean cans and a nice cosy swag hidden out there in them thar hills
# 665:
Cuba copes “well” with the blockade because, put simply, they have the other 2/3 of the world to trade with.
However, to say anything other than the nation is a destitute slag heap is a complete fabrication, IMHO.
I wouldn’t mind betting that comment on Kelly’s piece was Piers under cover.
I said the other day after 7 had reported Rudd’s brother going to set up business in China that we’d get these sort of way out attacks on the Rudster
I believe Harold Holt died about ten years ago at his villa outside Beijing. He had remarried in China and only his Chinese family and a few old colleagues from his days as a Chinese intelligence agent attended the funeral.
662
Another bank would provide more competition in the current environment where the non-bank lenders have gone and the small banks are struggling so the big banks would have a slightly smaller profit margins (but not so small as to threaten their credit rating).
The measures that the Greens support to try and make the distribution of wealth fairer are this like inheritance taxes and taxing family trust in the same way as companies.
http://greens.org.au/node/770
GG (676)
Over to you, Bill…
They also get free oil from Venezuela, which has helped offset the loss of Soviet subsidies.
It’s instructive to compare Cuba with Puerto Rico. They are similar socially and economically, and sixty years ago they were about equally poor. Today Cuba’s per capita GDP is $US1,700, which has hardly changed for 20 years, while Puerto Rico’s is $US10,000 and growing fast.
#677, Amigo Vera,
Mr. Speaker, if it pleases the House, I will suspend my cynicism.
Quite true, but that’s got nothing to do with arguments for having a state bank. It would be much easier to facilitate more foreign banks trading in Australia.
A state bank would either have to trade on the same terms as a private bank, in which case it would be no different to a private bank, or it would somehow follow different rules – such as being able to hand out free money or lend money to anyone that wanted it. That money would of course be taxpayers’ money. Now what happened the last time state bank managers were allowed to play Mr Generosity with public money?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Bank_of_South_Australia
Ever bothered looking at the reasons why what happened happened?
683
Castro should not have become a dictator and Cuba should have had economic reform years ago. It has such an international following because it is such an affront to the bad policy of the Munro Doctrine.
A government bank would operate successfully just as the Commonwealth Bank did before the Hawke-Keating government privatised it. Its role would be to keep the bastards honest. Helen Clark’s government introduced the Kiwi Bank, a government institution which operates through post offices just as Tom the first and best is suggesting for Australia.
King O’Malley lives!
685
It would not give out free money but would be (if properly set up) more consumer favourable than the big four. It would be managed responsibly.
Bob1234,
Have you?
If so, why don’t you enlighten us and provide your opinion on why it was so?
It would be much more appreciated than just your typical one line questions with no opinion expressed directly and no supporting or contrary argument!
Because state bank mangers were allowed to lend out huge amounts of someone else’s money without proper regulation or supervision. If private bank managers do that, the bank goes broke. If state bank managers do it, the taxpayers have to foot the bill. On the other hand, if they are tightly regulated and supervised, they can’t do it, but the bank then has to behave exactly as though it was a private bank. Either way, Tom’s argument fails.
688
King O`Malley while a driving force behind the Commonwealth Bank would have had in set up less like a normal bank if his view of economics had prevailed in the ALP at the time.
The Commonwealth Bank did not keep the bastards honest. That’s the job of the Reserve Bank and the regulators. The CBA was an ordinary trading bank, no more and no less. Its state ownership was a historical relic.
King O`Malley was a crackpot who thought the CBA really should hand out free money. Fortunately Andrew Fisher and Sir Denison Miller ensured that no such thing happened.
If the Commonwealth Bank had been still been owned by the Commonwealth then it would have had less trouble getting money during the GFC credit squeeze because it would have been owned by a very solvent government and therefore less likely to fail.
694
Agreed (don`t die of shock) and thank-you for elaborating.
694
What do you think of the Scullin government`s idea of printing money to fight the depression with? Should they have taken it to a DD?
The defeat of the Fiduciary Notes bill was one of the great tragedies of Australian history. Sir Robert Gibson, Governor of the CBA (the Reserve didn’t exist on those days) refused to give Scullin any money for unemployment relief or for lending to farmers or businesses (so much for the people’s bank!). Theodore’s solution was the Fiduciary Notes bill, which would have allowed the government to give out IOUs backed by a government promise that they would be redeemed in cash after the Depression. It was pretty desperate, but they were desperate times. Theodore was a proto-Keynesian, although it’s doubtful that anything Australia did on its own would have made much difference, since we were totally dependent on world markets, which had collapsed.
Scullin should have called a DD in 1930 while he was still popular, but he lacked the nerve. (The only precedent was Cook’s DD in 1914, which Cook lost.) Whitlam specifically cited Scullin’s fate in 1974 – when the Libs threatened to block the budget, he went straight to the GG, and he won. Fortunately he already had triggers in hand, which Rudd does not.
Orthodox Jews in Israel attack ABC journalist for using a tape recorder on a Saturday:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/06/2617502.htm?section=justin
Ahh, it all ties in now. Holt was, in reality, Rudds father! There that proves that Rudd is a Chinese spy! Rudds father didn’t die when he was young, he just quietly slipped back into China!
Tom
699
One of the reasons that we should have a much less pro-Israel Middle East policy.
SO
Kind of explains why Israel is ranked with North Korea, Pakistan and Iran by Aussies in it’s favourability ratings. And they have plenty of wackos like that. I like the Orthodox newspapers that photoshop out any female politicians. It’s a very enlightened society they have over there.
I don’t think we should judge a country based on its most extremist elements. Would we like Australia to be judged based only on the incoherent ramblings of Senator Foolding or Dennis Hood?
Moreover, the reason the orthodox Jews are protesting is because the local government in Jerusalem wants to set up a public car park, which these wackaloons think will just encourage people to drive their cars on Saturdays!
So in this instance the Government is taking a decision that is secular, but is facing a revolt by some Israelis that think the government shouldn’t do anything contrary to the Torah.
On the whole, it is, particularly given that they are under constant threat of attack. The Haredim (ultra-Orthodox) are about 10% of the Jewish population, and even of them, only a minority behave like that. It’s wrong to generalise about them. Some are totally inward-looking and do nothing but study Torah all day. There are Haredi sects (Satmar and Neturei Karta) which regard Zionism as blasphemous and have meetings with the PLO.
698
I wonder how different thing would have been if the bill to introduce PR into the senate had got up in 1902.
Were parties other than Labor disciplined in 1902? My understanding was that only started in the early teens, members would vote all over the place.
The Israeli government steals land from Palestinians as well as many other human rights abuses perpetrated on the Palestinians by the Israelis.
The Protectionist and Free Trade Parties were less disciplined but almost all MPs were still elected under a party banner.
Dario @ 666
” ‘My totally rusted-on Tory sibling, far from delivering the expected rant, was quite (& quite vocally) impressed by how well Cuba had coped with 40+ years of the USA blockade.’
Has this sibling ever actually been there?”
To have been “impressed by how well Cuba had coped with 40+ years of the USA blockade”? Of course, and not just as a stop-over! Wouldn’t say it otherwise; not in our family.
We were brought up never to believe anything anyone else told us, until we’d “Checked the facts for yourself”; never to shoot our mouths off unless “You know what you’re talking about”- or we’d get shot down by the rest of the large family & friends. PreTV, we’d sit at the dinner table for hours, arguing, and the survivors all still argue. First time OH met my parents, I was chided for arguing with my father (about politics, I think; it usually was). I believe I did a pop-eyed “Huh? He started it.”
It would have meant that the Senate was more balanced because there would have been at least one conservative and one ALP senator in each state elected at every election. None of those near unanimities by one side.
Psephos
I’ll take your word for it about the % who are nutters. I’d read somewhere that 20% were ultra-Orthodox (as in the blotting-out-women newspapers catered to 20% of the population).
Even so, 10% of the population wanting women blotted off their newspapers is pretty frightening.
I only asked because my mum & sister spent some time over there, and were quite bummed by the abject poverty
UPDATE.
The following is the latest update on the PhoneGate scandal.
Malcolm Turnbull has just spoken to the father of the young English bush-walker, Jamie Neale, who, according to the father, “is the only teenager in the world who goes on a ten-mile trek and leaves his mobile phone”.
Mr Turnbull quoted reliable witnesses who said Mr Neale had been seen shortly beforehand in a Katoomba Chinese restaurant, giving his mobile phone to a man who looked suspiciously like the Prime Minister. Mr Neale is reported to have joked, “I’m going for a walk, but you can borrow my mobile to make your important call – if I don’t come back, ring my dad and tell him to keep my dinner warm!”
The Leader of the Opposition is now challenging the Prime Minister to come clean: “Mr Rudd…is this just another phone-call you failed to make? Who in their right mind would ever want to depend on you to be their phone-a-friend?”
As usual, Julie Bishop is looking into it.
END OF UPDATE.
I heard something that made me angry this morning. The Green’s scare campaign on nanoparticles and sunscreens.
Fair enough we do need better labelling laws, but the crud and scare is despicable.
The fact that sunscreens containing nanoparticles of zinc oxide or titanium dioxide are safer than others does not enter the equation, the fact that people may stop using the most effective sunscreens does not matter.
These nano nasties may do something – but the Greens have not figured out what. Even though they have been used for 20 years.
Instead they are scaring people into using sunscreens without nano-nasties that do cause an increase in breast cancer rates.
Rant over.
ru,
Where did you hear this. Any link?
It was on ABC 612 Brissy this morning. Lee Rhiannon has had this bee in her bonnet for yonks.
Is there any truth in the rumour that the BRITISH backpacker Jamie Neale was kidnapped by the Three Sisters and then enjoyed every moment of it for the next 12 days?
Their concerns are legitimate but misplaced. As soon as you see the words “slathering”, “keeping the lights off” and “siding with industry”, you just know that the Luddite Party really is anti-technology, anti-progress and hysterical.
I’ve come to the conclusion that The Greens main interest in Climate Change is that it gives them an excuse to turn back the clock to the Dark Ages.
http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/wellbeing/sunscreen-health-alarm-20090712-dhfd.html
AC and Finns,
I’m interested to know if Turnbull’s interest was because the Chinese Restaurant was called The Dead Katoobma Bounce. Is Turnbull a Chinese spy with the code name of Hu Flung Dung?
Congratulations on finally seeing the light – The Greens are their own worst enemy on Climate Change, and Alarmist claptrap will bite them on the bum big time – especially amongst those with young kids.
Expect the usual personal attacks on both myself and Diogenes from the usual subjects
I agree that we need better labelling laws, but Rhiannon’s psuedo-science scare ranks with a certain FF Senator.
Looks like the Chinese economy is improving and their stimulus package is working too:
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/chinas-economy-bounces-back-with-strong-growth-20090716-dmbu.html
I guess anyone who said “lets wait and see” in China is being sent to the re-education camp.
We discussed this on the previous page, these statistics are wrong because everyone knows stimulus packages don’t work.
If the Chinese are filling the Aussie rice bowls, she will not tolerate to be used a whipping boy by the Aussies whenever they feel like it for domestic political purposes, in particular by the MSM and the Coalitions.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/07/16/saved-chinese-growth-nudges-8/
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2009-07/16/content_8435646.htm
ru,
Rhiannon has seen the free publicity ride that Fielding has received for being a buffoon and thinks she can do that too!
ShowsOn
Sorry I missed that page. Given the comparative performance of both Australia and China though, it really does make the US and European (and Liberal) responses to the GFC look quite stupid. Domestic political consequences aside, it is a tragedy that tens of millions of people in USA and Europe have now lost their jobs, some their homes, because of blind adherence to a failed economic ideology.
A propos several posts above, maybe the conservatives feel attacted not only to spanking but to other people’s poverty, especially if it is in Cuba?
A friend who went to Cuba several times discovered that highly-valued gifts were the things we would consider to be the ordinary, day-to-day objects of bathroom.
Rhiannon does have a valid point !!!!!!!
Aliens use nano-particles to teleport ‘emselves, so Lee is just making sure that they never can invade us again.
This is not surprising.
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-business/rio-tinto-analysts-leave-china-20090716-dmob.html
That refusal in 1930 looks a strange one and sure its easy 80 years later to say this but that looked a good idea considering the way things looked in 1930.
Looks like Sir Robert Gibson went to the Turnbull school of economics, was Sir Gibson a paided up member of the Conservatives
The Finnigans (717).
Barnacle Bill said he thought he caught a glimpse of you at the earthquake epicentre. Was the incident down to any over-exuberant sexual frolicking on your part in the neighbourhood? If so, did the earth move for you?
have just read Sir Robert Gibson Bio and what makes that 1930 decision worst is he actually lived in Melbourne thought-out the crash of the 1890s
Rua that is why minor parties stay minor
The Finns
I hope you are right.
The immediate domestic figures for China are good. It helps when the National Bureau of Statistics does what it is told. For balance, perhaps you should have mentioned what is happening to China’s export figures.
In terms of which approach is superior, the short term looks good for Plan A. But I suggest that the real question has yet to be answered: ‘When the Chinese have burned through their stimulus package, where will the demand come from?’ US official unemployment is about 10%. This masks another 10% who have either ceased participating, or who are working on an average of 3 days a week rather than 5 days a week. The unemployment figures also mask reductions in overtime, and reductions in take-home pay.
While the green shoots have been spotted yet again, it seems to me to be fairly doubtful that US demand will grow in time to take up the slack in the Chinese economy once their stimulus package has been used up.
GG (719)
I’m told the nickname of the local meat supplier is the Catoomba Strangler.
Whilst I am confidence Australia can avoid recession has I predicted it would, I am not so sure America is in recovery mode for whilst bank profits look okay it is clear that China is starting to develop a large bubble on the back of American consumers, this is a worry for all bubbles look the same and I am starting to think with the American budget position which is very poor and China’s bubble things could get ugly.
Diogenes,
This morning I heard on the radio that the South Australian upper house reform is intended to reduce the number from 22 to 16 and the terms to 4 years.
However, it is the Government’s intention to have the entire LC up for election at each election. This will actually reduce the quota and make it easier for minor parties to be elected.
I think that is silly, I think only half the LC should be up for each election.
730
Had the 1902 proposal to introduce PR as the Senate election system then it would probably have been 14 ALP to 22 Nationalist and Country Party (or 15 to 21 depending on vacancy filling) rather that the 6 to 30 it was under the majority preferential system then in use.
A DD under PR would probably have resulted in a split close to 18 to 18.
Muskiemp @ 670 wrote:
That should really be paradigms rather than “prejudices”; paradigms, and the willing suspension of disbelief when accepting anything that fits their paradigms (ie uncritical acceptance) whether they be scientific, philosophical, religious, ideological, analytical … even musical etc.
Luckily, when I was still an undergrad in the early-mid 60s, THE “must read & discuss” book on uni campuses (& every uni party which, as an external student unable to make evening classes before 7.30, were where I caught up on campus “must knows”) was Tom Kuhn’s The Structure of Scientific Revolutions and we argued long liquid hours over paradigms, probably one of the main reasons why student protests took off bigtime c1966.
Everyone I know who was part of that era recommends that book – hence the fairly new Wiki article. Those who became teachers (sec & Higher Ed) set the 1970 ed’s “Postscript” as compulsory reading, and the uni ones add Tony Becher & Paul Trowler: “Academic Tribes and Territories: Intellectual Enquiry and the Cultures of Discipline”, Chapter 1 – no Wiki yet). Read those two chapters (about 2-3 hrs reading), then come back; read a few PB pages on any topic, and play: Spot the paradigms; spot the tribes. Until you read those chapters, you have no idea what eye-openers, powerful tools and “Crap detectors” they are.
Many, probably most people like certainty or, in more formal terms, “Have a low tolerance of ambiguity.” Once they accept something as right, they become “part of tribe” accepting that something as “tribal law”, and their “puzzle solution” framework (to quote Tom Kuhn) – the “paradigm” which any new information has to fit for them to accept it. Kuhn’s model is the Vatican & Italian scientists’ treatment of Galileo, until the last Pope admitted the Vatican got it wrong (c1991, from memory). But why?
In the matter of geocentric v heliocentric, the Holy See, Counter-Reformation & many scientists had gone out on limbs supporting geocentricity. What would be the consequences of admitting they were wrong at just that point in the Counter-Reformation? We now know (but only in the last decade or so; I think just before/after Tom K died) that Cardinal Roberto Bellarmino’s “Congregation” discussed the impact of accepting heliocentric theory and decided it would be a disastrous setback, so it went ahead with the condemnation of Copernican theory, knowing it was probably correct (some even accepted that it was correct). Everything that was done to Galileo and other dissenters was purely political – including continuing geocenticity’s Big Lie.
Included in Kuhn’s explanation of “paradigm” are the way scholarly & other communities operate. Becher & Trowler extend this to academic communities & sub-communities (tribes) and their control of their theoretical “territories” through control of publication of any other theory (conference & in print). There are numerous examples, in numerous disciplines, certainly in the last 20-25 years, of valid theory’s being completely blocked by tribes protecting their own theories (and egos). This happened in at least two cases in which I knew the theorists, one in change theory, one in particle physics, where supportive friends managed to ensure (1) the paper was printed by the publication of a different group in a discipline it only ’sort of’ fitted, just to get it in print (2) the abstract was published as an advertisement in major international papers. Both “opened the floodgates” in their own disciplines. Nor are the only ones I know of. So the protection of status and territory are very important considerations, especially for status-seeking upward-mobiles and those ‘climbing the ladders’.
So you have to consider how much of people’s egos are tied up in their acceptance of paradigms or theories or tribal laws or religious beliefs etc. Often people internalise these to the extent of complete identification with them, becoming disciples and disseminators, much like evangelists; regarding any attack on their paradigms etc as a personal attack on themselves and those they follow, venerate etc. Often their reaction is what you’d expect if you did launch a personal attack.
It’s usually the nature of the retaliation which indictes whether you’re dealing with an open mind, or a closed one.
737
I believe that all bills in the SA parliament need to pass both houses (and be signed by the Governor) to become law. The ALP does not have a majority in the SALC. The question is whether or the Libs and the crossbenchers will support the bill for this referendum?
Ozpol Tragic @ 600
I agreed with most of your post, except for the bit about willows, not that it matters too much what anyone thinks because those babies are well and truly out of control.
More recent willow introductions have crossed with some of the existing stock and the seeds are now mostly fertile and go with the water and the wind. About the only chance for some sort of balance is some accidentally-introduced caterpillar or other that enjoys eating willow leaves.
On a somewhat distantly-related matter, I have seen the move to goat farming from sheep farming in the dry country and can see desertification coming along nicely.
But, horses for courses, as it were. About a year ago I heard an interesting program about goat herds being trucked from farm to farm to eat weeds. Turns out the goats stomachs can be accustomed to fairly toxic stuff and the goats will take on the woody weeds once acclimatised to the particular toxins.
It was a sort of biological control win-win.
Glen – agree.
It is funny (peculiar not ha ha ) that the Greens chastise others for using “dodgy science” but they are happy to use it when it suits.
nano-technology = bad.
GM = bad
etc.
Wallies.
NEWSFLASH! Adelaide United soccer team’s newest international recruit has swine flu.
So paradigms it is then. OzPol Tragic, your description fits exactly what I meant. Delete ‘prejudice and replace with ‘paradigms’
743
I hope all the people with all types of flu get better quickly but that is boring and sporty.
SO and Tom
I’m finding it very hard to even find the energy to read about why we would want to vote “Yes” so I’ll be voting “No”. Doesn’t Rann have something better to do with his time?
ruawake and other Queenslanders
I heard on Triple J today that you have had EIGHT politicians jailed in the last 20 years, and tomorrow Nuttall will also get a sorely needed trip to the Big House for a few years. That doesn’t include Joh, Russ Hinze or Terry Lewis.
What the hell is going on up there
A superior justice system?
I don’t really know much about Peter Andrews. From the NSF website:
‘For well over 25 years, Peter has struggled against big business, the financial and legal sector, the scientific community, the academic community, local, state and federal government bureaucrats and virtually every other man and his dog!
As his cousin and helper, amongst other things, I have sadly seen him lose his family, his personal wealth, his beloved Tarwyn Park property, hundreds of thoroughbred horses who had incredible potential, as well as much of his credibility and some say, his part of his sanity.’
My passing comment on this is, if it works (in the financial as well as in the biodiversity sense), why aren’t farmers taking it up? Some agricultural sectors have adopted huge changes in the last couple of decades.
The following link appears to me to support the idea that it works in the biodiversity/river management sense:
http://www.nsfarming.com/news070604.htm
I am more inclined to vote YES at this stage, because I think 8 years is too long between elections. I think it is bad making it easier for minor parties to get elected, but on the other hand, at least they will come up for election every 4 years.
Reducing the number from 22 to 16 is OK with me as well, I don’t think we need 22.
An even better reform would be to make the Legislative Council the Adelaide City Council. All South Australians should have a chance to vote for the Adelaide City Council.
It means that the QLD ALP don’t have the police in their pocket or vice versa.
OzPol Tragic
I think most of the discussions we have reach road blocks due to cognitive dissonance rather than the difficulties of paradigm shift, although there is some overlap.
I think most of the discussions we have reach road blocks due to most people’s complete and utter stupidity, but that’s just me.
Diogenes @ 746
Cleaning the Augean stables, and determined to keep ‘em clean (the CMC’s job).
4 National, 4 ALP, for various causes + Pauline Hanson (quashed on appeal). Terry Lewis was jailed. (10 1/2 years)
Can’t see the list becoming much longer, unless some future government cans it (& it would probably be the last thing it did for decades). At least we pull our crooks into line (& in jail)
Only Fed pollies get away with anything in QLD, or the list would have included a few AWB & Nursing Homes scalps. About time it spread to the Fed government.
479
That ACC=SALC idea is up there in silliness with So`s idea that the Lord Mayor should have a seat in the PoV (Parliament of Victoria). An Adelaide Metropolitan Council (covering the whole of Adelaide) would not be such a bad idea though.
Why?
740
I was (in my last post on the subject) saying that it may not be assured that there is going to be a referendum because the SALC may reject the bill. Could the SA posters please give more information of the likelihood of the non-ALP MLCs voting for or against such a bill?
In 20 years, Qld has probably had about 200 politicians (I’m happy to be corrected on that). That makes 5% of Qld pollies being JAILED in 20 years, not just convicted.
If 5% of bus drivers, nurses or school teachers were jailed at that rate, there would be some serious questions asked about the kind of people who went into that profession.
Cos it would make it harder for his beloved Greens to get a seat
755
Voters Mount Gambier and remote farms and Aboriginal communities voting for the ACC when the voters of Adelaide don`t vote for the local governments of those voters.
If the Government’s proposed reforms went through it would make it easier. But, they would face election every 4 years instead of every 8.
I think you could save a fortune if the SA Legislative Council was also the Adelaide City Council.
But Adelaide is different, it is a capital city that many people who don’t live in the city attend ~250 days a year when they go to work.
All South Australians should have a say in how Adelaide is governed, an easy way to do that would be to make the Legislative Council also the Adelaide City Council.
That means at every state election every voter would know that their legislative council vote would also directly impact on the composition of the Adelaide City Council, it would make that vote even more valuable.
Oh, the other issue is that many people who own lots of property in Adelaide are allowed to vote in council elections, even if they don’t live in Adelaide or even Australia.
It doesn’t make sense to me that someone living in a different country is allowed to vote in an Adelaide City Council election, but not someone who lives in an outer suburb of the Adelaide metro area.
New thread.