Big shock from Newspoll: Labor’s two-party lead has slumped from 59-41 to 52-48, their smallest lead since the last poll prior to the 2007 election. The shift on preferred prime minister is much more modest, Kevin Rudd’s lead slipping from 65-19 to 63-19. It’s apparently also been reported both sides have shifted seven points on the primary vote, which would mean they are level on 41 per cent. More to follow. UPDATE: Graphic here. Rudd has had four points transfer from approve (59 per cent) to disapprove (32 per cent); Turnbull’s approval is steady on 32 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 51 percent.
It’s a very different story from Essential Research, which has Labor’s lead steady at 59-41. Supplementary questions show mixed messages on asylum seekers: one shows support for a tough line and an apparent belief that the Rudd government is delivering, but 55 per cent rate its handling of the issue “not so good/poor” against 36 per cent “excellent/good”. Significantly, a further question shows people do not think the Liberals would do any better.
UPDATE: Newspoll history records six reversals of comparable size. The poll of 6-8 November 1992 saw a 46-54 Labor deficit turn into a 54-46 lead, for what looked to be no readily obvious reason at the time. On 20-22 August 1993, immediately after John Dawkins’ horror post-election budget, the Coalition’s lead went from 51-49 to 60-40. On 23-25 September 1994, Labor went from 57-43 ahead to 51-49 behind in what looked like a correction following two consecutive horror surveys for Alexander Downer. When John Howard took over from him at the end of January 1995, the next survey of 10-12 February saw Labor’s 54-46 lead turn into a 53-47 deficit. The poll immediately after the 1998 election saw the Coalition turn a 53-47 deficit at the last (evidently inaccurate) pre-election poll into a 54-46 lead. Finally, on 28-30 May 2004, Labor under Mark Latham suffered a short-lived slump from 53-47 ahead to 54-46 behind.
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Bob i’d struggle i dont really like the Nats but i think Oakshott is a bit of a yokel.
I’d be trying to run as a Liberal, which is what we should be doing in 2010.
Oakeshott is far from a yokel. Incredibly intelligent, politically savvy and principled.
He left the Nationals after racist attacks by them against his family and is now immensely popular and respected.
What race do Oakeshott’s family belong to?
Ummm
Human
Candles,dear finns,candles
His wife’s background is Pacific Islander.
When they were still dating, he was pressured by some Nationals to leave her because they found her unpalatable and by others to have a shotgun wedding, to appease the good moral folk of Port Macquarie.
He dumped them, is happily married with two kids and the rest is history.
I see. I didn’t know that. Just another reason to dislike the Nats, as if I need one.
Just the very type of voter Malcolm is desperate to keep on side over the AS issue!
Just doing my ” I can read body language” act ..did anyone see on Lateline where Rudd was asked if he had blood on his hands?
He was so angry/offended, his eyes were trying to shut, he almost whispered his answer….at least that’s how I get when I am absolutley livid about something
She should have told them that her ancestors might have found them very palatable.
Yet, there are Liberal Voters/Supporters even politicians who are married to people who are of non caucasion origin – TRoy Buswell’s wife is one such example.
I truly wonder at those who benefiited from migrating to australia,biting the hand that fed them.
I refer specifically to the 10 pound pom and generally to the east european and south east asian migrant.
Mr Squiggle, Tony Abbott needs to be careful he doesn’t get Kevin Rudd offside to the same extent that Malcolm Turnbull did over AusCar debacle!
I believe Rudd is determined to destroy Turnbull over that and Abbott would be easy meat for a very angry and determined Ruddster!
Notice how the Opposers are catching the “misspeak” disease? First Sharman on PM and now the disgusting Tony Abbott? In both cases someone in the hierarchy decided that “clarifying” statements had to be issued.
If Kevin Rudd and the Government keep hammering this line and can fairly quickly clean up the current problems with the OV, then I think it will isolate the Coalition on this issue and point out to the electorate that they are just dog whistling and have “no” policy in this area whatsoever!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/03/2732248.htm
Kev talking to the odious Howard Sattler.
http://media.mytalk.com.au/6pr/Audio/Drive_021109_KevinRudd.wma
Re our “Friend” who posted on The West’s story on the Atlas being plugged, I reported him and included the following reason why
dyno 869
I think that is a step forward. It is certainly better than Labor’s clean coal nonsense. It may also have another advantage – self-interest. I suspect most in Labor championing clean coal are not stupid enough to actually believe it works, but want a fig-leaf to continue exploiting our coal. Nuclear leads to utilising another resource where we have an even bigger share of the world’s supply (uranium). It would at least soften the blow of losing the coal revenue.
Frank, Good on you. You are absolutely correct in that description of that “comment”!
It is surprising to me that if this is a regular occurrence on that site that they don’t get sued and also prosecuted under Federal Law against that sort of comment!
The ABC are going to cop another strongly worded complaint from me after Tony Jones appalling treatment of Stephen Smith tonight.
He was so intent again on gotchas that it was difficult for Smith to finish the line of response to a question before Jones was hammering him with another vaguely related question.
It’s pretty tough on a Minister that is generally good at answering reasonable questions in an informative manner.
Stephen Smith doesn’t fit the stereotype “spinmister” just spruking party talking points endlessly over and over again and he deserves better treatment than that!
The viewing audience deserves much better than that which I saw tonight!
The Power of Twitter
And they’ve disabled comments
Ahh, good old Crazy Colin privatising Govt Services like Mental Health, Family & Children Services etc.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2009/11/03/2732384.htm
Imre Salusinszky reports Julia Gillard hopes to save “soft Left” colleague Laurie Ferguson by moving him to Werriwa, whose member Chris Hayes would have to make do with Macarthur. It appears Hayes will suffer that fate in any case, as it’s been agreed Werriwa should go to the Left. However, the Anthony Albanese “hard Left” wants it to go to Damien Ogden, an LHMU organiser who defeated incumbent Ken McDonnell for preselection in Sutherland Shire Council’s “E” ward before last year’s elections, but ultimately failed to win the seat. Hayes is understandably not keen, and is calling for the matter to be determined by the local branches – as Ferguson did last week when his ambition was to stay on in redrawn Reid at the expense of John Murphy.
There are echoes here of 2000 when a redistribution caused similar headaches for Hayes’s predecessor in Werriwa, Mark Latham. As recounted in The Latham Diaries, the redistribution removed branches around Campbelltown which were strong for Latham, and lumbered him with state Liverpool MP Paul Lynch’s “stacked Left-wing branches in Liverpool”. The soft Left and Latham’s far-sighted opponents in his own Right faction, Senator Steve Hutchins and then Dobell MP Michael Lee, wanted Lynch to take Werriwa for Latham and have the latter move to Macarthur. Another plan, proposed by then state secretary Eric Roozendaal, involved Latham making way for Jennie George instead, defusing a looming contest between her and Sharon Bird for Throsby. Latham was saved when his Right allies, John Della Bosca and Leo McLeay, reached a deal with Albanese and the hard Left in which Jennie George was given Throsby, and Sharon Bird was required to cool her heels until Cunningham became available.
Somebody should tell the pretty boy that one swallow doesn’t make the summer or one good poll doesnt make the Coalition competitive:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26302468-5013479,00.html
William @ 923
I cannot understand why Julia Gillard is supporting Laurie Ferguson, who has been a non-performer and sometimes loose cannon all through his career. It just shows you the effect on quality of factional loyalties. Current member Hayes was put upon by the party to stand in the by-election in Werriwa after Latham lurched off, and now the heavies want to thaank him by pushing him out to risk his career in Macarthur for the sake of a proven second-grader, just because Julia says so.
Does Gillard understand that involving herself in such internecine crap risks tarnishing the image of imperious aloofness from the fray she has so successfully built up?
In the meantime the same old factional wars go on with the divvying up of the redistributed seats in Western Sydney. Where’s this new cross-factional harmony Kevin is supposed to have instituted? And as usual it is the hard-slogging rank and file members who get kicked in the face:
http://www.smh.com.au/national/werriwa-mp-digs-in-against-his-own-faction-20091103-hv9c.html
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26301410-5006301,00.html
*cries*
Glen I see I need to be more specific.
At the Lyne by-election, who would have you voted for, from the selection of candidates that were available at the time?
All this effort to save Laurie Ferguson, who really should retire!
According to today’s SMH, it would seem that if Chris Hayes refuses to budge from Werriwa, Ferguson will be given Fowler, and poor Ed Husic will be left out in the cold.
evan14
I find myself agreeing wholeheartedly with Albanese too:
Ferguson himself is apparently unconcerned about the havoc he is causing by insisting on continuing his permanently stalled career, after 20 years having reached already beyond his competence level.
By the way, if Ferguson is ’soft left’ given his views on refugees, I’d hate to see the personal attitudes of the right these days.
Just look at Adam.
It’s sickening.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Grayndler
At 29.3 sq km Grayndler is the second-smallest division according to wikipedia. What’s the smallest?
Jaundiced View: Laurie is supposedly a good local member, one of his constituents wrote a letter to the SMH singing his praises.
However, has the bloke made any significant contribution to the Labor Party at a federal level in 20 years?
I feel a little sorry for Ed Husic, who deserves a seat, after what happened to him in 2004(when he unsuccessfully ran for Greenway and was the victim of a Liberal smear campaign).
And why should Chris Hayes vacate Werriwa?
evan14
The second half of that sentence is not necessarily supported by the first. Loyal friends have been known to dash off the odd ‘unsolicited’ letter or two to the press when their champion is in trouble.
Last in first out principle?
Just noticed this cracker from Annabel Crabb a few days ago on Laurie F:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26301208-7583,00.html
Worth a read.
So is http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26301166-16741,00.html
And http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26302468-5013479,00.html
Where is the OO’s coverage of the Newspoll result? I thought they would be trumpeting the end of the Honeymoon. Not a mention on their online front page.
Frank @ 922 said: [ Ahh, good old Crazy Colin privatising Govt Services like Mental Health, Family & Children Services etc. ]
-Given his promise never to lead a government with a deficit budget, he’s obviously scrambling to avoid an embarassing backdown -or resignation.
What a disgrace this AS issue has turned out to be.
Most of the people on this site were hoping against hope that the great unwashed had moved on.
No such thing, the racism out there is still only lurking just under the skin.
It did however, give me reason to have a bit of a chuckle over the responses of our dear old rusted on ALP types.
After having roundly advised the Greens to be more pragmatic and drop all that alarmist nonsense over Global warming, along came the AS “crisis”, the ALP, to their credit took a slightly less smelly line than the Coalition. My point here is that if this whole political thing is just about votes, if Kev had send them packing with, we are going to be hard, ‘we will decide etc’ then they could have done better. Actually, they probably needed to go further than the morally bankrupt opposition.
This poll is probably a bit of an outliner, all that, however, it shows the fragility of the swinging voters. They ran like a herd over a dog whistle. This rush to the bottom by the opposition shows their complete, horendous, odiouslack of anything approaching vision.
The fact that the Green vote did not move, shows that they need not fear any backlash over supporting a principled stance. I’ll be interested to see how KR resolves this issue, it will be a slow drip.
Regarding Laurie Ferguson, I don’t really understand how he retains much currency with “the left” after all his negative statements on CC and defence of the coal industry. Coal miners aren’t exactly underpaid so he isn’t supporting the working poor. I don’t see how attacking an environmental policy and defending a wealthy industry makes you progressive. Maybe he belongs on the right?
Pretty sure that would be Wentworth.
Woot woot!!!
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26303437-5006301,00.html
Hahahahahahaha
Left does not necessarily equal progressive. If someone is economically left and socially/morally right (ie: DLP), you could call them left wing, but you couldn’t call them progressive.
Barking
At least a bit of hubris has sunk in. We were getting the “Rudd has the politics and policy exactly right on every issue” line. Now a few are wanting a shift to the right on AS which is inconsistent with the former view.
I wouldn’t be so quick to say the vote shift is because of dog whistling, even if the shift is real. Labor has had a bad couple of weeks on a few issues and the Lib leadership has been less of a problem in the last few weeks. I think a lot of the shift is due to frustration that Australia looks a bit impotent with not being able to solve the OV issue and we don’t like feeling embarrassed.
Gillard has been an outstanding Deputy and certainly deserves to become our first woman PM, if all goes well between now and 2016 or whenever. All the same, she has revealed a penchant for a Latham-like close-mindedness about issues without thinking them through.
This Ferguson stoush makes her look like a meddler, at best, or a control freak, at worst. But there’s the far more serious matter of her being sold an appalling education policy direction being flogged world-wide by the right-wing head of New York City Education Dept.. This bloke is a test score fanatic and union-hater, who (shock, horror!) has been pumped up into messiah status by Murdoch’s N.Y. tabloid. You know, the same tabloid whose editor took Rudd to a strip joint and then ratted Kevin out. Labor pollies can be slow learners sometimes.
Socrates
You might be thinking of Martin rather than Laurie on CC, although both are conservative. Martin is associated with CC skeptics, big coal and old forest destruction; Laurie with the xenophobes.
“No such thing, the racism out there is still only lurking just under the skin.
It did however, give me reason to have a bit of a chuckle over the responses of our dear old rusted on ALP types.”
Has nothing to do with racism.
Has to do with Australians dislike of queue jumping criminals. I also don’t like rapists, murderers, litterers or fraudsters, does that make me racist as well?
The left STILL DON’T GET IT. Australians see a distinct difference between real Refugee’s and the economic migrants illegals coming on boats.
Sydney’s eastern suburban area is the most densely populated in Australia, so that’s a safe assumption.
And giving out new exploration licenses to a company which has an out of control fire on it’s rig and still spewing out millions of litres of oil into the Indian Ocean.
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