Big shock from Newspoll: Labor’s two-party lead has slumped from 59-41 to 52-48, their smallest lead since the last poll prior to the 2007 election. The shift on preferred prime minister is much more modest, Kevin Rudd’s lead slipping from 65-19 to 63-19. It’s apparently also been reported both sides have shifted seven points on the primary vote, which would mean they are level on 41 per cent. More to follow. UPDATE: Graphic here. Rudd has had four points transfer from approve (59 per cent) to disapprove (32 per cent); Turnbull’s approval is steady on 32 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 51 percent.
It’s a very different story from Essential Research, which has Labor’s lead steady at 59-41. Supplementary questions show mixed messages on asylum seekers: one shows support for a tough line and an apparent belief that the Rudd government is delivering, but 55 per cent rate its handling of the issue “not so good/poor” against 36 per cent “excellent/good”. Significantly, a further question shows people do not think the Liberals would do any better.
UPDATE: Newspoll history records six reversals of comparable size. The poll of 6-8 November 1992 saw a 46-54 Labor deficit turn into a 54-46 lead, for what looked to be no readily obvious reason at the time. On 20-22 August 1993, immediately after John Dawkins’ horror post-election budget, the Coalition’s lead went from 51-49 to 60-40. On 23-25 September 1994, Labor went from 57-43 ahead to 51-49 behind in what looked like a correction following two consecutive horror surveys for Alexander Downer. When John Howard took over from him at the end of January 1995, the next survey of 10-12 February saw Labor’s 54-46 lead turn into a 53-47 deficit. The poll immediately after the 1998 election saw the Coalition turn a 53-47 deficit at the last (evidently inaccurate) pre-election poll into a 54-46 lead. Finally, on 28-30 May 2004, Labor under Mark Latham suffered a short-lived slump from 53-47 ahead to 54-46 behind.
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The Finnigans
At 19 to get of 18 balls with 4 wickets in hand the Indians should have walzed home. Imagine being in that crowd towards the finish
The Finnigans
This is a refreshing comment from that Hindustan Times story. I’d like to see this attitude more often:
the result, India lost by three runs, did not matter.
That sentiment is even more applicable in Test cricket. The ebb and flow of the game; the turning points; the internal strategies; the individual heroism and failures, are together more fascinating and rewarding than the mere result.
The Chair of the Productivity Commission, not unsurprisingly, tells us that infrastructure spending is bunk, that we should stop wasting our money, and instead institute better regulation of industry to be… more productive.
Again, not unsurprisingly, as Banks was speaking at a forum organised by The Australian, and reported in The Australian, he reckons the schools stimulus was double-bunk:
And in a something-for-everyone tilt at infrastructure junkies he reckons major infrastructure spending is pointless too, as it takes too much time, and is likely to be poorly conceived anyway…
So, let me get this straight. Schools stim is just make-work and big infrastructure is a fool’s quest as the money will inevitably be squandered. Let’s just just move the deck chairs closer to the railing so that when we have to jump we can be more productive in jumping overboard. That’s productive.
Oh, and as for the hundreds of thousands who gained employment through the Schools program and will gain employment through Big Infra, the government should have just bitten the bullet and regulated better. That’s always something you can get agreement on in a trice. Much quicker than grubby brick-laying, road and rail building, or constructing ports to service the exporters. We should eschew all that and just be more efficient to each other. You lose your job quicker too, but you can always get another one, right?
I guess those at The Australian who’ve been agin the Schools stim package in favour of major infrastructure should be as disturbed as Rudd and Gillard will be when they hear of Banks’ speech, as Banks doesn’t like their bigger and longer term ideas either. But hey, getting a senior economic advisor to buck the government is always a win. And anyway, I’m not sure how serious the likes of Stutchbury were in their anti-stim sermonizing. They were anti the quick spend, now they’ve found someone to verbal the slow spend. In the end, when nothing gets built then they can write articles saying “Why hasn’t that phoney Mr. Rudd done anything about infrastructure like we told him to?”.
I have a sneaking suspicion they were just naysaying whatever Rudd did, to be honest. a good bootstrapper must not only use quotes from loveletters between members of a tightly closed circle, but if you can manage it you organise conferences and get as many speakers to say opposing things as possible… as long as they’re critical of government policy. In the end no-one’s got a good word for anything the government wants to do. Then we can sit around afterwards and talk, shake our heads and complain that “great opportunities have been squandered”.
Banks wants us to just regulate better, which in Productivity Commission-speak means: no regulations. Why does the image of a bunch of lawyers sitting around sending each other large bills so that we end up with blank sheets of paper setting out the Law – of the jungle – come to my mind? (Hint: Banksy doesn’t like workplace regulation either).
And when the legislators and the lawyers have finished, the bureaucrats can send emails between themselves. And have more commissions, specifically, more Productivity Commissioners, I’d hazard to guess.
When they’re finished we still won’t have the roads, the rail, the ports and the education system we need. But no matter, because we’ll have lots of loverley holes in the ground all dug by an uneducated, unregulated, under-paid workforce.
I guess we should keep on digging those pits, just like we’ve always done. Keep the masses uneducated, in poor facilities, without roads connecting the cities, without rail to service the non-existent ports and without a hope for ever changing anything, or doing anything differently. When the last litre of gas is pumped, and he last tonne of iron ore is shipped, we can be satisfied that we went broke in the most productive manner possible. That’s got to be an improvement on being the country which survived the GFC in better shape than anyone else, with close to full employment and a boom to come serviced by staged infrastructure spending. I mean, consider what we might have achieved if Mr. Banks had his way instead: we could have sat around and argued for years, attended conferences, written articles, driven on two-lane roads full of potholes, andthen signed away our rights at work. I know what I’d prefer.
This infrastructure business is clearly just fluffery for those who don’t understand the real power of productivity, and the vison of the highly-paid Commissioners who tell us how to get it. With long term infrastructure spending off the agenda and short-term spending a waste of money, I guess Rudd’s whole idea for surviving the GFC was a crock.
Inescapable conclusion, actually. I dunno why I didn’t see it before.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/kevin-rudd-told-to-rethink-stimulus-spending/story-e6frg6nf-1225794871836
Q&A last night: Marr was damn impressive, Hockey was his usual overblown self, Maxine made a lot of sense(when Jones actually gave someone other than Hockey a chance to answer questions).
One suggestion for Q&A producers next year: stop recruiting young Liberals for your audience.
evan @ 1954
I couldn’t agre with you more. There’s just something so, so annoying about Joe Hockey at times.
Johnny Pilger, winner of the 2009 Sydney Peace Prize confronts the ‘h’ word, which recurs in the refugee debate quite a lot, and for obvious reasons. Whatever you may think about Pilger’s lack of journalistic impartiality, the extract form his speech last night is spot on:
“Are we not fed up with this kind of hypocrisy? The use of the term ”illegal immigrants” is both false and craven. The few people struggling to reach our shores are not illegal. International law is clear – they are legal. How ironic; the people in those leaking boats demonstrate the kind of guts Australians are said to admire.
The bit in the article about Rudd’s incompatible statements on refugees reveals all.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/no-shipload-of-whites-fleeing-disaster-would-be-treated-like-this-20091105-i067.html
I disagree with both you and Pilger on this, j.v.
Several years ago I tried every way I knew to get a successful white Zimbabwean businessman into the country. He was a multi millionaire in Zimbabwe but could see the writing on the wall. He wanted to come to Australia so that he could care for his blind father, thus taking the burden of his care away from the government and freeing up an aged care place as well.
The Department of Immigration couldn’t have been more obstructionist if they tried.
I don’t know if he was successful in the end; I tried for over eight months but then changed jobs and lost track of what was happening.
Fortunately Evan the ABC producers allowed one lefty lady in ( probably an oversight ) and she attacked Sloppy admirably. At least there is some balance on “our ABC”
El zoomster
I don’t mind you disagreeing with Pilger, but to disagree with me?
Your issue is different to the one Team Pilger/jv are on about though. The process of considering refugee status is distinct from the discriminatory treatment of boat arrivals. Your anecdote is about the former; the Team’s the latter.
We haven’t had a shipload of white refugees, so we can’t judge.
I’m working by analogy: if I couldn’t find a way (and the Dept of Imm was almost actively unhelpful) to get a white businessman fleeing an oppressive African regime into Australia through the normal processes, then I don’t think racism is a factor here.
zoomster
If a black businessman had fled from South Africa during apartheid, they wouldn’t have qualified as a refugee either, unless there was evidence their life was in real danger.
Yep.
1962
That’s the bit Diogenes. Quite a juxtaposition isn’t it? Rudd must practice extreme yoga to be able to combine those two positions.
zoomster
Further to 1961, your businessman analogy is thereofre a false one. As you say, such an analogy would only work comparing groups of genuine refugees, one white, the other black. Anyway, that’s a hypothetical. In the meantime we have a real case of unacceptable discrimination against boat arrivals, as the HRC report powerfully sets out.
BB – Was Garry Banks appointed by the Rudd Govt. or Howard and was he formerly head of a business group, like Chamber of Commerce, or somesuch.
Your analysis says what we are all probably thinking – for the next 12 months the OO will be setting their agenda to change the govt. It will be as tiring as it was before the last election.
BB 1953
Agree 100%: I am not a fan of Gary Banks either. For those who doubt where his heart lies in philosophical terms, read his comments in defence of executive pay here:
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2009/s2701102.htm
I have been quite dissappointed in this inquiry so far (on exec salary). So he wants to regulate away trademen’s wages, but not banking executives multi-million dollar salaries. Mr Banks is well named.
Regarding infrastructure waste, I would agree there is some waste, but no more than any other industry. Australian contractors like Leightons and Multiplex have been very successful bidding internationally, so I don’t see that it is an uncompetitive industry. In fact, there will be a need soon to invest in skills training for a new generation of contractors and engineers. There was a large age cohort that started in the 70s and is now over 50 and will retire soon. We will soon have trouble maintaining existing productivity levels, and no amount of deregulation will change that.
The main avoidable cost in infrastrucutre is due to the “on-again off-again” nature of funding with large sums allocated to major projects and then nothing for years. This makes it hard to retain skills, that then have to be regained at higher cost later. So we would get more out of our dollars if we consistently allocated a similar amount per year, rather than a large infusion. That being said, government agencies I deal with have gotten very good value out of stimulus bids, because contractors are pricing very keenly due to the lack of other work.
Banks’ comments are also stupid because they assume that the private sector isn’t already funding infrastructure. The trouble is, there are some items that are needed by society that don’t pay their own way. They are called public goods. The Macquarie Banks of this world won’t build them either. Australia under Howard spent very little on infrastrucure as a % of GDP, but Banks seems ignorant of that fact.
Just saw Dario’s comment. Didn’t Joe contradict himself for nearly the whole hour? And Joe doesn’t tell lies!! I remember Costello’s comment about Brendon Nelson that he spouted statistics which nobody ever checked so they were never proven correct. I’m going to check all of Joe’s comments twice over because he’s got a tongue which is very loose with the truth constantly.
banks rhymes with *anks and that about sums up his whole outlook. A little more study if the “Productivity” of the CEO’s etc where golden handshake should be renamed ”
platinum would serve him and the national interest better.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/not-delusional–della-bosca-stakes-his-leadership-claim-20091105-i093.html
Looks like Della Bosca definately wants the Premiership…
Interesting…
‘PM propaganda’ not ABC role: Nick Minchin
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/pm-propaganda-not-abc-role-nick-minchin/story-e6frgczf-1225794871714
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/05/2734550.htm
http://www.smh.com.au/news/entertainment/tv–radio/australia-calling-abc-to-go-global/2009/11/04/1257247660496.html
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/unions-give-cash-to-asylum-seekers/story-e6frg6nf-1225794867308
Isn’t it funny. Labor’s industrial wing are now the ones more friendly to overseas people who could potentially be overseas labour.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/unions-give-cash-to-asylum-seekers/story-e6frg6nf-1225794867308
I bet all the CLLR’s (cute little Labor rusteds) will be infuriated by Hawke’s suggestion that the poll slump was likely to be caused by the asylum seeker issue…
What, because the Herald reports it for the 3512th time? He wouldn’t have more than a handful of votes in any case.
Here’s the bait ladies and gentlemen.
Both Graeme Richardson and Bob Hogg, two of Labor’s very capable and experienced strategists some time back thing didfferently to Hawke. So who is right then? As I’ve said many times. We will see.
thing = think differently
Q&A last night
For me the worst performer last night was Maxine, on 3 occassion the host has to redirect the question after she answered it, because she did not answer the question
Every other member got an applause at some time during the night, Maxine did not
She waffled on the whole night, the host cut her short twice
For someone who made her career on TV, she was mediocre at best
So dovif, Maxine doesn’t answer a few questions, according to you anyway, and she’s the worst whereas Hockey swayed and dodged a number of questions and he’s ok?
Hell, Hockey even said he doesn’t lie and when asked by Jones about the leadership ducked and weaved like a batsman facing a barrage of bouncers.
It’s easy to get applause, by the way, when you have a cheersquad in the audience.
Well the Fort Hood shootings have taken everything else off the news headlines. Army major psychiatrist killed 11 wounded 31 soldiers.
His name is Hasan which is unfortunate
I reckon one of the lamest answers an opposition politician can give is “we’re not the government” when asked what they would do to solve a particular problem. If they were really concerned about solving the problem, for Australian’s sake they would try and provide the government with the answer in the hope that they would take up their suggestion. By not doing so the opposition is showing everyone that they are just playing politics. I believe people see through this. It is piss weak.
Absolute rubbish. David Marr had Hockey pinned down perfectly, he could see that the opposition’s tactic on immigration is to actually not propose anything, just say that the government is wrong. And Marr was right in pointing out that the only possibly harsher policy would be to create another naval blockade around Australia, which is effectively what happened iwth the Tampa.
vp – you’ve ruined me!! after reading that, and remembering how good they were/are still, it came as shock to know I’m not really 25. Darn it.
Unions giving money to refugees – if these people do not eventually get to Oz would they use the money to pay another people smuggler to put them on another leaky boat?
Instead of giving the money to Indonesia would there be any advantage in funding the AS to resettle in India in the Tamil area?
Another howard acolyte giving his view on why the masses should be kept in virtually economic slavery.
I wonder if he still rings howie to get his talking points
Get rid of this loser and worstchoices advocate.
It is 1 year at most to the next election. For nearly 12 years Howard & Co. kept bagging Labor for not releasing policies within 2 years of the next election.
Why is it OK for the Libs to now make these excuses. The next excuse will be that they can’t say what their policies are because Labor will pinch them. lol.
Gary
9 & 10 morning news showed Joe on Q&A during their OV updates. Hugh Remington on 10 has been trying to help the Lib cause with reports of rumours with no substance.
But Kev is sticking to his guns, still repeating the same thing he has said from the start ie this is our policy and we will be sticking to it.
You can see some of these reporters getting really upset that they can’t shake Ruddy.
I don’t know who in the opposition came out with that strategy BH but boy it’s a dud.
The chickens will come home to roost at the election when they’ll have to release policies.
7 news were the only one that gave Labor’s side of the story. They showed Maxine saying it was important that the OV situation be handled in a calm non hysteric way
“Talking Liberal” have been playing Hockey each news service saying the government needs to fix their problem. No details of course. Only once did they play him being evasive in regard to suggesting a solution.
I think the Lib media cheer squad are the ones getting desperate, how to keep OV going when most people have lost interest. The Libs have nothing else going for them.
Rudd is showing no signs of panic, cool and calm and not changing his stance and it’s driving the media crazy.
They will be hoping like mad that the OV is taken to CI so they can shout “RUDD BACKFLIP”
Kev’s too smart for the dullards, even if he does end up bringing the OV to CI he will put a good spin on it
Gusface
It is interesting to speculate how much we would save by eliminating the Productivity Commission? There are 12 commissioners on the board, plus support staff. Given that we already have other agencies like ABARE, plus investigative branches of Treasury, Finance, RBA and Parliament, why do we even need them? Is there any evidence that having a productivity commission increases productivity? We went backwards in this respect under Howard, while this commission existed.
Morning bludgers! Wow… sounds like the second innings last night was an absolute cracker!!! Who would have thought we could have won it with Sachin nearly getting a double cetury lol
It was interesting this morning when Sky and ABC2 reported on Glenn Stevens’ speech yesterday.
Sky ran with the line that Stevens was happy with the Govt. spending and the stimulus should continue as set out (tapering off). ABC2 ran with the line that Stevens not happy. Fascinating to watch them spin the same thing different ways.
BH, It say it all really when Sky reporting is more balanced than ABC
Maxines comments on handling the OV issue in a calm non-hysterical way were great. Have seen Evans make similar comments in the past.
Unfortunatley, the Opposition really needs a hysterical scare campaign to get any traction out of this, and the media likes things stirred up as it sells papers.
I think that the best thing that could happen is for the OV 78 to be turfed off immediately, but for their status to be determined and claims to be processd by the UNHCR immediatley as part of the “deal” to get them off the ship with no violence. It may be a good look if Australia takes some of any of the 78 who are determined to be refugees
With the OV back at sea and cyclone season approaching there will be the normal seasonal drop off in boat arrivals and issue will evaporate for a while. If the Govt manages to stick to its commitment to process people in 45 days then Xmas island will get cleared pretty fast ready for next years arrivals. By pre-election next year the Govt should have a strategy in place to deal with this kind of “sit in” faster, and be in a position to defuse asylum seekers as an election issue.
The really sad thing about this is that if skippers know they will have trouble offloading people they rescue at sea then they are less likely to try and save people. I believe a similar situation occured after the Vietnam war when there were lot of refugee boats heading out and it did cause deaths.
Socrates,
I believe the Prod. Comm. was to be a central plank in the workchoices framework.
The wholly cynical approach to productivity and real wage growth by the libs was evidenced by the PC effectively acting as a rubber stamp to the howard government’s regressive work laws.
I think rudd should call banks out on this and effectively scrap the PC because it has been so unproductive!!!
Socrates – is the amount paid to the Commissioners public knowledge. Who appointed them – was it Howard or were they changed by Labor after 24/11?
I think my satellite broadband will be installed next week so I’ll be able to check things out like that myself. Dialup here is like watching a kettle boil.
We’ve noticed that a lot lately, Vera.
BTW – did you hear my OH screaming at Joe last night in Q&A – such a placid fella is my OH but somehow Joe gets to him.
BH,
Here’s a list of Chairman and Commissioners, most have been appointed after Labor was elected.
http://www.pc.gov.au/about-us/commissioners
And that was after they didn’t release any themselves until just before the 1996 election – Howard’s “small target” strategy.
India choked. They only needed 18 runs from 17 balls with 4 wickets in hand when Tendulkar got out.
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