tip off

Morgan: 61-39

Roy Morgan has leapt in with last weekend’s face-to-face polling of 1050 respondents, showing Labor’s lead has actually nudged slightly upwards: from 60.5-39.5 to 61-39. Labor’s primary vote is down one point to 51 per cent, but the Coalition’s is also down two to 32.5 per cent. Contra Newspoll, the Greens are up two to 9.5 per cent.

Other news:

Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Julia Gillard hopes to save “soft Left” colleague Laurie Ferguson by moving him to Werriwa, whose member Chris Hayes would have to make do with Macarthur – in turn cutting loose Nick Bleasdale, the candidate from 2007 who appeared lined up for another shot. It appears Hayes will suffer that fate in any case, as it has been agreed Werriwa should go to the Left. However, Anthony Albanese’s “hard Left” wants it to go to Damien Ogden, an LHMU organiser who defeated incumbent Ken McDonnell for preselection in Sutherland Shire Council’s “E” ward before last year’s elections, but ultimately failed to win the seat. Hayes is understandably not keen, and is calling for the matter to be determined by the local branches – as Ferguson did last week when his ambition was to stay on in redrawn Reid at the expense of John Murphy. That appears to be off the table because the seat is reserved for the Right. Importantly, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Prime Minister is also of a mind to throw Ferguson a lifeline.

VexNews tells of a further brush fire in Macquarie, to be vacated at the election by Bob Debus. According to VexNews, Debus and the hard Left would have the national executive decide the issue in favour of Susan Templeman, principal of Templeman Consulting, who sells herself as “one of the country’s leading media trainers and coaches”. However, local branches favour Debus antagonist Adam Searle, a “soft Left” member whose designs on Debus’s old state seat of Blue Mountains were thwarted by Debus’s recruitment of Phil Koperberg. When Debus agreed to make life easier for the Prime Minister by relinquishing his position in the ministry in June, Glenn Milne in The Australian reported talk he had done so on the condition that he get to choose his successor in Macquarie.

The Australian reports Warren Entsch will try to win Leichhardt back for the LNP at the next election. Entsch retired before the last election, and Labor demolished the 10.3 per cent margin he had built up with a 14.3 per cent swing. He floated the possibility of running for Cairns or Barron River at the March state election, but thought better of it. Teresa Gambaro, who lost Petrie at the election, plans to nominate for Brisbane, where the redistribution has cut Labor’s margin from 6.8 per cent to 3.8 per cent. UPDATE: AAP has reported Gambaro has indeed been preselected (thanks to LTEP in comments).

Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports a preselection challenge from the Right to Philip Ruddock in Berowra has been withdrawn. The identity of the challenger is not offered.

972
  • 1
    The Heysen Molotov
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 3:56 pm | Permalink

    Thank gosh Morgan is unchanged! The Landslide is still on. The Liberals are still in crisis. All is well.
    :)

  • 2
    bob1234
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 3:56 pm | Permalink

    Nobody pays attention to Morgan. I’ll need another Newspoll before I stop being concerned.

  • 3
    Gary Bruce
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 3:57 pm | Permalink

    Now come on. I have difficulty with this 61/39 but I know one thing, it won’t be out by 9% ie 52/48 of Newspoll.

  • 4
    ltep
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 3:58 pm | Permalink

    William, in regard to your last dot point, I’ve read an AAP report today confirmed Teresa Gambaro has been preselected for Brisbane.

    BRISBANE, Nov 6 AAP - Former federal MP Teresa Gambaro has been preselected to represent the Liberal National Party (LNP) in the seat of Brisbane at the next election.

    Ms Gambaro, who won preselection on Thursday night, was the Liberal MP for Petrie from 1996 to 2007 and is a former parliamentary secretary.

    LNP state director Michael O'Dwyer said Ms Gambaro's experience and knowledge of local issues would prove invaluable in the campaign.

  • 5
    ltep
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 3:59 pm | Permalink

    Nobody pays attention to Morgan.

    Speak for yourself. I’ve seen no compelling evidence Morgan should be ignored.

  • 6
    The Finnigans
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 3:59 pm | Permalink

    from the previous thread:

    “So an elected government should only do what the majority of Australians want?” - CORRECT. - Welcome to Democracy.

    Hmmmm, at one time, Hitler Govt was elected by the majority of German people.

  • 7
    Gary Bruce
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:01 pm | Permalink

    Fortunately Fin as you know if we don’t like what a government does we get rid of them and have mechanisms to prevent what happened in Germany.

  • 8
    evan14
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:03 pm | Permalink

    It’s interesting that Arch Bevis has been asking a lot of Dorothy Dixers in QT recently.
    Are the ALP that worried about him hanging on to Brisbane?

  • 9
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:04 pm | Permalink

    Thanks LTEP, I’ve added an update.

  • 10
    scorpio
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:06 pm | Permalink

    Are the ALP that worried about him hanging on to Brisbane?

    I very much doubt it!

  • 11
    Tom the first and best
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:06 pm | Permalink

    6

    NSDAP got 43.9% in March 1933. A plurality but not a majority. Other parties were needed for the enabling act (which needed two thirds).

  • 12
    Tom the first and best
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:07 pm | Permalink

    The following link appears in post 11.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_federal_election,_March_1933

  • 13
    scorpio
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:08 pm | Permalink

    Howard attempted to introduce WorkChoices in his first term. The end result only came about (a diluted WorkChoices) because the Dems held the balance of power.

    Is that right, Bob? I’ll give you two hours to put up “any” evidence to prove that statement. You can start with the Libs IR Policy in 1996 for a start and show us “where” in that policy there is any mention of the content of the latter 2004 workchoices policy or “any” Legislation along those lines which went through the Reps and was modified by the Democrats in the Senate.

    You’re full of it Bob! I suppose you think that the architects of workchoices ( we all know who they are) worked so hard burning the midnight oil to have that policy ready for thrusting upon an unsuspecting public “after” the 2004 election and control of the Senate. In 2005 in fact!

    They put all that work in and then Howard just pulled it out of the bottom drawer and said, “hey, fellers, sorry you wasted all that time drafting this workchoices legislation, here it is here. I have had it since 1996, don’t you remember, we put it through the Reps and then it got modified a little by the Dems in the Senate”

    Arrrr…. no, PM John, sorry about that, of course you did! Barr humbug, Bob!

  • 14
    bob1234
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:08 pm | Permalink

    So, Gary Bruce and the other CLLRs, do you agree with Rudd when he says that he should govern in the national interest and not based on what’s popular, or do you agree with Rudd’s actions that he should govern based on what’s popular, ie: the entire debate for the past hour?

    I really would love to know the answer to this.

    But I know I won’t get one, because CLLRs strive not to be obviously contradictory.

  • 15
    Centre
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:08 pm | Permalink

    Rudd has been genuinely tough but humane on border protection.

    What would the polls be if Rudd was as soft on boat people as the Greens would have liked thereby giving the Coalition and the MSM some real ammunition to attack?

    Oh, don’t tell me that the Greens Bludgers would think that Rudd would have increased his majority?

    Holy wacka-lacka-loopy-loon!

  • 16
    bob1234
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:10 pm | Permalink

    When the Howard Government introduced its first wave of industrial relations reforms in 1996 it proposed administering the no-advantage test by comparing the then-new AWAs against a set of award benchmarks or minimum conditions.

    But it was forced to accept a broader and general application of the test in return for support from the Australian Democrats to pass its legislation.

    The Coalition's decision to concede that some workers were hurt by contract bargaining - but provide a new safety net of fair compensation - is designed to "shift the pendulum" back towards workers.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/pm-softens-work-choices/story-e6frg6nf-1111113467848

  • 17
    Aristotle
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:12 pm | Permalink

    I do tire of these ignorant comments from people with bugger all experience or knowledge of market research, slagging off reputable companies.

    For the record!

    “Roy Morgan Research, Australia’s best known and longest established market research and public opinion survey company, was founded in 1941 by Roy Morgan.  Since then, Roy Morgan Research has grown and prospered.  While originally specialising in public opinion, corporate image and media measurement, the company has expanded to cover all aspects of market research information gathering whether by personal interviews, the telephone, self-administered or the Internet. 

    Roy Morgan Research is a truly international market research company and the provider of the world’s most extensive and only true single source survey.

    Today annual turnover is more than $50 million, with offices in four mainland Australian States, Auckland, London, New York, Princeton and Indonesia.”

    Now, regarding this issue of a 7% swing against the ALP recorded by Newspoll.

    Despite now two pollsters, Morgan, having polled over the same weekend, and Essential, across most of last week including the weekend, not having picked up any trend at all – the Newspoll result is considered absolute and without question, and until Newspoll comes out again, no other data holds any weight.

    You can argue that both Morgan and Essential might have “house biases”, you can argue that you feel face to face and panel research is not as reliable as phone research, but to absolutley dismiss these reputable agencies as rubbish displays more about the ignorance of the accuser, than the quality of the companies.

    Honestly! Could there be more ignorance and stupidity on display!

  • 18
    ltep
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:12 pm | Permalink

    I don’t know whether I should ask what a CLLR is?

    Oh, don’t tell me that the Greens Bludgers would think that Rudd would have increased his majority?

    I don’t think anyone is claiming this. They’re claiming that this simplistic reasoning shouldn’t be the sole determinant of policy.

  • 19
    Centre
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:13 pm | Permalink

    Bob, Rudd governs for what is in the best interests of Australia, not some place in Skyland somewhere! :lol:

  • 20
    bob1234
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:13 pm | Permalink

    And when Howard came to power, why did he slash and burn the budget to reduce the deficit? All of these decisions and cutting all of these areas was an ideological interest, and it certainly wasn’t supported by the electorate, which is why Howard never really had a polling honeymoon.

  • 21
    bob1234
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:14 pm | Permalink

    You can argue that both Morgan and Essential might have “house biases”, you can argue that you feel face to face and panel research is not as reliable as phone research

    Indeed!

  • 22
    bob1234
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:14 pm | Permalink

    ltep

    CLLR = cute little labor rusted

    It’s easier.

  • 23
    bob1234
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:15 pm | Permalink

    Though on a 2PP basis, I could be considered a CLLR.

  • 24
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:16 pm | Permalink

    Morgan is a thoroughly legitimate and professional poll. The vehemence agin it seems to be related to its over stating of labor vote by a few percent. It however as legit and valuable as the others for revealing tremd.

  • 25
    scorpio
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:16 pm | Permalink

    Morgan: 61-39!

    Now what was that again about Tuesday’s Newspoll reflecting a savage drop in Labor support due to Rudd’s handling of the Ov and AS issue?

    No wonder Rudd seemed relaxed about the whole thing during the week. Labor’s internal polling would have shown that the Newspoll didn’t reflect the reality.

    I can’t imagine this getting any media coverage to speak of. Too many red faces would abound if it was too widely known!

    It’s easy to understand why there was no obvious Liberal crowing about the Newspoll. Their internal polling would have told them the same thing as Labor’s.

  • 26
    bob1234
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:18 pm | Permalink

    I can’t imagine this getting any media coverage to speak of.

    Morgan never gets any media coverage. ANY media coverage. Because NOBODY takes it seriously, whatever the result, whichever party it favours. Toilet paper has a better hit rate than Morgan.

  • 27
    Cuppa
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:18 pm | Permalink

    A vote for the Liberals is always a vote for SerfChoices.

    Good poll, by the way. I’m betting the Newspoll was an outlier.

  • 28
    scorpio
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:18 pm | Permalink

    bob1234 @ 16,

    A bit lame that Bob! ;-)

  • 29
    Centre
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:19 pm | Permalink

    ltep, being tough but humane on boat people is not being popular or simplistic, it is the right policy. C’mon!

  • 30
    ltep
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:19 pm | Permalink

    Morgan never gets any media coverage. ANY media coverage. Because NOBODY takes it seriously, whatever the result, whichever party it favours.

    Another explanation is that they’re released on a Friday, which isn’t good as far as the news cycle goes and isn’t commissioned by a news organisation.

  • 31
    Gary Bruce
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:19 pm | Permalink

    I don’t think anyone is claiming this. They’re claiming that this simplistic reasoning shouldn’t be the sole determinant of policy.

    Correct ltep. I don’t know why everything has to be so black and white.

  • 32
    bob1234
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:20 pm | Permalink

    One thing about Morgan that really puts me off? Their constant outliers prior to the 2007 election.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Pollchart-tpp-event.svg

  • 33
    Frank Calabrese
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:21 pm | Permalink

    Another explanation is that they’re released on a Friday, which isn’t good as far as the news cycle goes and isn’t commissioned by a news organisation.

    Actually it’s perfect timing for the Saturday Papers for comment and analysis.

  • 34
    Diogenes
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:22 pm | Permalink

    61-39

    So can a few people here take the finger off the panic button and let’s not hear any more of that “the people want a stronger border protection policy and that’s what Labor will now give them” rubbish.

  • 35
    scorpio
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:22 pm | Permalink

    I could be considered a CLLR.

    You haven’t got the second L around the wrong way, have you Bob! ;-)

  • 36
    Tom Hawkins
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:23 pm | Permalink

    bob1234

    Do you actually have a life outside of posting here?
    ________________

    I do wish there was a limit each week on how many posts a single user can make. Some people fill up these pages with nothingness as it’s free and easy. If there was a limit of say 30 posts in a week some actual thought and consideration might go into their musings.

  • 37
    scorpio
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:25 pm | Permalink

    bob1234 @ 26,

    See Aristotle at 17. He’s got you dead to rights! ;-)

  • 38
    adrian
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:28 pm | Permalink

    Well said Aristotle @17. Why Newspoll is the friggin’ holy grail of polling I’ll never know. Well of course I do know, but it’s still not logical.

    Intersting the way in which the media narrative went from ‘bad poll for Labour but it could be a rogue’ to ‘Labour vote drops dramatically in polls’.

  • 39
    The Heysen Molotov
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:28 pm | Permalink

    Tom Hawkins
    That’s not a bad idea.

  • 40
    bob1234
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:28 pm | Permalink

    Do you actually have a life outside of posting here?

    In my job, most of the time i’m just sitting around. But I finish in 2 minutes! YAY! :D

  • 41
    jaundiced view
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:29 pm | Permalink

    Centre
    By the way, what was your anticipated inside word for the Cup? I missed it. But I backed Crime Scene each way, which was a nice little earner on Betfair.

  • 42
    jaundiced view
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:30 pm | Permalink

    Diogenes
    let’s not hear any more of that “the people want a stronger border protection policy and that’s what Labor will now give them” rubbish.
    Yours, mine and Buckley’s I’d say.

  • 43
    The Finnigans
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:31 pm | Permalink

    He’ll be playing next Sunday ODI along side Sachin:

    Mumbai, Nov 5 (PTI) At a school tournament which brought Sachin Tendulkar into the limelight 21 years ago, a 12-year- old boy smashed a record 439 runs in a marathon innings that included an astonishing 56 boundaries. Playing for Springfield Rizvi School, Sarfaraz Khan also struck 12 sixes in his knock spanning two days that came off 421 deliveries against the Indian Education Society in the Under-16 Inter-School Harris Shield Tournament.

    As a 15-year-old, Tendulkar had caught the imagination of a nation with his 329-run knock in the same tournament in 1988 before making his international debut the next year. With his energy-sapping innings, Sarfaraz, a sixth standard student, also wiped off the 23-year-old previous mark of the highest individual score in the tourney that stood at 422. That knock came from Sanjeev Jadhav of Shardashram Vidyamandir, the school which Tendulkar represented two years later.

    http://www.ptinews.com/news/363064_12-year-old-boy-hits-439-in-school-tournament

  • 44
    Centre
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:32 pm | Permalink

    Diogs, I would say that the majority do want tougher border protection actually. But no, I think Rudd will give them what is right. And what is right is tough but humane border protection policy.

    GB @ 31 are you saying that Rudd’s policy is black and white?

  • 45
    The Finnigans
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:33 pm | Permalink

    INDONESIA has given Australia another week to resolve the Oceanic Viking asylum-seeker impasse.

    Senior Indonesian diplomatic sources say the country's Department of Foreign Affairs and military have both cleared the Australian customs vessel to stay in Indonesia until November 13.

    Diog, how’s your “rubber time”?

  • 46
    Centre
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:35 pm | Permalink

    jv, the tip was Alcopop. Apparently it was bred to stay the 3200m but you are never really sure until they are tested at it I suppose?

  • 47
    Dario
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:36 pm | Permalink

    What a surprise… bob disregards the Morgan poll

  • 48
    Tom Hawkins
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:36 pm | Permalink

    The Heysen Molotov @ 39

    30 per week is a little too severe I must admit – I wouldn’t want to see intelligent conversation stifled. Maybe a limit of 30 or 40 posts per user per day – non cumulative would help eliminate the stupid he said/she said stuff.

    Anyway, it’s just a thought – I doubt that the software would have this option even if William wanted to introduce such a thing.

  • 49
    The Heysen Molotov
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:37 pm | Permalink

    Really I don’t think we have anything to worry about, it was a false alarm, the landslide is still on. Two polls at or after when Newspoll sampled have shown no difference, in fact this Morgan shows an 0.5% increase. One Newspoll went against conventional wisdom and we freaked out but now with this further evidence I think all is well. Nevertheless we should see 1 or 2 more polls just to be sure. (a Newspoll would be particularly handy)

  • 50
    Tom Hawkins
    Posted Friday, November 6, 2009 at 4:41 pm | Permalink

    bob1234 @ 40 said

    In my job, most of the time i’m just sitting around. But I finish in 2 minutes! YAY! :D

    Are you work the phones at Roy Morgan?

Womens Agenda

loading...

Smart Company

loading...

StartupSmart

loading...

Property Observer

loading...