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Federal Politics

Nov 6, 2009

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Roy Morgan has leapt in with last weekend’s face-to-face polling of 1050 respondents, showing Labor’s lead has actually nudged slightly upwards: from 60.5-39.5 to 61-39. Labor’s primary vote is down one point to 51 per cent, but the Coalition’s is also down two to 32.5 per cent. Contra Newspoll, the Greens are up two to 9.5 per cent.

Other news:

Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Julia Gillard hopes to save “soft Left” colleague Laurie Ferguson by moving him to Werriwa, whose member Chris Hayes would have to make do with Macarthur – in turn cutting loose Nick Bleasdale, the candidate from 2007 who appeared lined up for another shot. It appears Hayes will suffer that fate in any case, as it has been agreed Werriwa should go to the Left. However, Anthony Albanese’s “hard Left” wants it to go to Damien Ogden, an LHMU organiser who defeated incumbent Ken McDonnell for preselection in Sutherland Shire Council’s “E” ward before last year’s elections, but ultimately failed to win the seat. Hayes is understandably not keen, and is calling for the matter to be determined by the local branches – as Ferguson did last week when his ambition was to stay on in redrawn Reid at the expense of John Murphy. That appears to be off the table because the seat is reserved for the Right. Importantly, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Prime Minister is also of a mind to throw Ferguson a lifeline.

VexNews tells of a further brush fire in Macquarie, to be vacated at the election by Bob Debus. According to VexNews, Debus and the hard Left would have the national executive decide the issue in favour of Susan Templeman, principal of Templeman Consulting, who sells herself as “one of the country’s leading media trainers and coaches”. However, local branches favour Debus antagonist Adam Searle, a “soft Left” member whose designs on Debus’s old state seat of Blue Mountains were thwarted by Debus’s recruitment of Phil Koperberg. When Debus agreed to make life easier for the Prime Minister by relinquishing his position in the ministry in June, Glenn Milne in The Australian reported talk he had done so on the condition that he get to choose his successor in Macquarie.

The Australian reports Warren Entsch will try to win Leichhardt back for the LNP at the next election. Entsch retired before the last election, and Labor demolished the 10.3 per cent margin he had built up with a 14.3 per cent swing. He floated the possibility of running for Cairns or Barron River at the March state election, but thought better of it. Teresa Gambaro, who lost Petrie at the election, plans to nominate for Brisbane, where the redistribution has cut Labor’s margin from 6.8 per cent to 3.8 per cent. UPDATE: AAP has reported Gambaro has indeed been preselected (thanks to LTEP in comments).

Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports a preselection challenge from the Right to Philip Ruddock in Berowra has been withdrawn. The identity of the challenger is not offered.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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972 comments

972 thoughts on “Morgan: 61-39

  1. The Heysen Molotov

    Thank gosh Morgan is unchanged! The Landslide is still on. The Liberals are still in crisis. All is well.
    🙂

  2. bob1234

    Nobody pays attention to Morgan. I’ll need another Newspoll before I stop being concerned.

  3. Gary Bruce

    Now come on. I have difficulty with this 61/39 but I know one thing, it won’t be out by 9% ie 52/48 of Newspoll.

  4. ltep

    William, in regard to your last dot point, I’ve read an AAP report today confirmed Teresa Gambaro has been preselected for Brisbane.

    [BRISBANE, Nov 6 AAP – Former federal MP Teresa Gambaro has been preselected to represent the Liberal National Party (LNP) in the seat of Brisbane at the next election.

    Ms Gambaro, who won preselection on Thursday night, was the Liberal MP for Petrie from 1996 to 2007 and is a former parliamentary secretary.

    LNP state director Michael O’Dwyer said Ms Gambaro’s experience and knowledge of local issues would prove invaluable in the campaign.]

  5. ltep

    [Nobody pays attention to Morgan.]

    Speak for yourself. I’ve seen no compelling evidence Morgan should be ignored.

  6. The Finnigans

    from the previous thread:

    [“So an elected government should only do what the majority of Australians want?” – CORRECT. – Welcome to Democracy.]

    Hmmmm, at one time, Hitler Govt was elected by the majority of German people.

  7. Gary Bruce

    Fortunately Fin as you know if we don’t like what a government does we get rid of them and have mechanisms to prevent what happened in Germany.

  8. evan14

    It’s interesting that Arch Bevis has been asking a lot of Dorothy Dixers in QT recently.
    Are the ALP that worried about him hanging on to Brisbane?

  9. William Bowe

    Thanks LTEP, I’ve added an update.

  10. scorpio

    [Are the ALP that worried about him hanging on to Brisbane?]

    I very much doubt it!

  11. Tom the first and best

    6

    NSDAP got 43.9% in March 1933. A plurality but not a majority. Other parties were needed for the enabling act (which needed two thirds).

  12. scorpio

    [Howard attempted to introduce WorkChoices in his first term. The end result only came about (a diluted WorkChoices) because the Dems held the balance of power.]

    Is that right, Bob? I’ll give you two hours to put up “any” evidence to prove that statement. You can start with the Libs IR Policy in 1996 for a start and show us “where” in that policy there is any mention of the content of the latter 2004 workchoices policy or “any” Legislation along those lines which went through the Reps and was modified by the Democrats in the Senate.

    You’re full of it Bob! I suppose you think that the architects of workchoices ( we all know who they are) worked so hard burning the midnight oil to have that policy ready for thrusting upon an unsuspecting public “after” the 2004 election and control of the Senate. In 2005 in fact!

    They put all that work in and then Howard just pulled it out of the bottom drawer and said, “hey, fellers, sorry you wasted all that time drafting this workchoices legislation, here it is here. I have had it since 1996, don’t you remember, we put it through the Reps and then it got modified a little by the Dems in the Senate”

    Arrrr…. no, PM John, sorry about that, of course you did! Barr humbug, Bob!

  13. bob1234

    So, Gary Bruce and the other CLLRs, do you agree with Rudd when he says that he should govern in the national interest and not based on what’s popular, or do you agree with Rudd’s actions that he should govern based on what’s popular, ie: the entire debate for the past hour?

    I really would love to know the answer to this.

    But I know I won’t get one, because CLLRs strive not to be obviously contradictory.

  14. Centre

    Rudd has been genuinely tough but humane on border protection.

    What would the polls be if Rudd was as soft on boat people as the Greens would have liked thereby giving the Coalition and the MSM some real ammunition to attack?

    Oh, don’t tell me that the Greens Bludgers would think that Rudd would have increased his majority?

    Holy wacka-lacka-loopy-loon!

  15. bob1234

    [When the Howard Government introduced its first wave of industrial relations reforms in 1996 it proposed administering the no-advantage test by comparing the then-new AWAs against a set of award benchmarks or minimum conditions.

    But it was forced to accept a broader and general application of the test in return for support from the Australian Democrats to pass its legislation.

    The Coalition’s decision to concede that some workers were hurt by contract bargaining – but provide a new safety net of fair compensation – is designed to “shift the pendulum” back towards workers.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/pm-softens-work-choices/story-e6frg6nf-1111113467848

  16. Aristotle

    I do tire of these ignorant comments from people with bugger all experience or knowledge of market research, slagging off reputable companies.

    For the record!

    “Roy Morgan Research, Australia’s best known and longest established market research and public opinion survey company, was founded in 1941 by Roy Morgan.  Since then, Roy Morgan Research has grown and prospered.  While originally specialising in public opinion, corporate image and media measurement, the company has expanded to cover all aspects of market research information gathering whether by personal interviews, the telephone, self-administered or the Internet. 

    Roy Morgan Research is a truly international market research company and the provider of the world’s most extensive and only true single source survey.

    Today annual turnover is more than $50 million, with offices in four mainland Australian States, Auckland, London, New York, Princeton and Indonesia.”

    Now, regarding this issue of a 7% swing against the ALP recorded by Newspoll.

    Despite now two pollsters, Morgan, having polled over the same weekend, and Essential, across most of last week including the weekend, not having picked up any trend at all – the Newspoll result is considered absolute and without question, and until Newspoll comes out again, no other data holds any weight.

    You can argue that both Morgan and Essential might have “house biases”, you can argue that you feel face to face and panel research is not as reliable as phone research, but to absolutley dismiss these reputable agencies as rubbish displays more about the ignorance of the accuser, than the quality of the companies.

    Honestly! Could there be more ignorance and stupidity on display!

  17. ltep

    I don’t know whether I should ask what a CLLR is?

    [Oh, don’t tell me that the Greens Bludgers would think that Rudd would have increased his majority?]

    I don’t think anyone is claiming this. They’re claiming that this simplistic reasoning shouldn’t be the sole determinant of policy.

  18. Centre

    Bob, Rudd governs for what is in the best interests of Australia, not some place in Skyland somewhere! 😆

  19. bob1234

    And when Howard came to power, why did he slash and burn the budget to reduce the deficit? All of these decisions and cutting all of these areas was an ideological interest, and it certainly wasn’t supported by the electorate, which is why Howard never really had a polling honeymoon.

  20. bob1234

    [You can argue that both Morgan and Essential might have “house biases”, you can argue that you feel face to face and panel research is not as reliable as phone research]

    Indeed!

  21. bob1234

    ltep

    CLLR = cute little labor rusted

    It’s easier.

  22. bob1234

    Though on a 2PP basis, I could be considered a CLLR.

  23. Thomas Paine

    Morgan is a thoroughly legitimate and professional poll. The vehemence agin it seems to be related to its over stating of labor vote by a few percent. It however as legit and valuable as the others for revealing tremd.

  24. scorpio

    Morgan: 61-39!

    Now what was that again about Tuesday’s Newspoll reflecting a savage drop in Labor support due to Rudd’s handling of the Ov and AS issue?

    No wonder Rudd seemed relaxed about the whole thing during the week. Labor’s internal polling would have shown that the Newspoll didn’t reflect the reality.

    I can’t imagine this getting any media coverage to speak of. Too many red faces would abound if it was too widely known!

    It’s easy to understand why there was no obvious Liberal crowing about the Newspoll. Their internal polling would have told them the same thing as Labor’s.

  25. bob1234

    [I can’t imagine this getting any media coverage to speak of. ]

    Morgan never gets any media coverage. ANY media coverage. Because NOBODY takes it seriously, whatever the result, whichever party it favours. Toilet paper has a better hit rate than Morgan.

  26. Cuppa

    A vote for the Liberals is always a vote for SerfChoices.

    Good poll, by the way. I’m betting the Newspoll was an outlier.

  27. scorpio

    bob1234 @ 16,

    A bit lame that Bob! 😉

  28. Centre

    ltep, being tough but humane on boat people is not being popular or simplistic, it is the right policy. C’mon!

  29. ltep

    [Morgan never gets any media coverage. ANY media coverage. Because NOBODY takes it seriously, whatever the result, whichever party it favours.]

    Another explanation is that they’re released on a Friday, which isn’t good as far as the news cycle goes and isn’t commissioned by a news organisation.

  30. Gary Bruce

    [I don’t think anyone is claiming this. They’re claiming that this simplistic reasoning shouldn’t be the sole determinant of policy.]
    Correct ltep. I don’t know why everything has to be so black and white.

  31. bob1234

    One thing about Morgan that really puts me off? Their constant outliers prior to the 2007 election.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Pollchart-tpp-event.svg

  32. Frank Calabrese

    [Another explanation is that they’re released on a Friday, which isn’t good as far as the news cycle goes and isn’t commissioned by a news organisation.]

    Actually it’s perfect timing for the Saturday Papers for comment and analysis.

  33. Diogenes

    61-39

    So can a few people here take the finger off the panic button and let’s not hear any more of that “the people want a stronger border protection policy and that’s what Labor will now give them” rubbish.

  34. scorpio

    [I could be considered a CLLR.]

    You haven’t got the second L around the wrong way, have you Bob! 😉

  35. Tom Hawkins

    bob1234

    Do you actually have a life outside of posting here?
    ________________

    I do wish there was a limit each week on how many posts a single user can make. Some people fill up these pages with nothingness as it’s free and easy. If there was a limit of say 30 posts in a week some actual thought and consideration might go into their musings.

  36. scorpio

    bob1234 @ 26,

    See Aristotle at 17. He’s got you dead to rights! 😉

  37. adrian

    Well said Aristotle @17. Why Newspoll is the friggin’ holy grail of polling I’ll never know. Well of course I do know, but it’s still not logical.

    Intersting the way in which the media narrative went from ‘bad poll for Labour but it could be a rogue’ to ‘Labour vote drops dramatically in polls’.

  38. The Heysen Molotov

    Tom Hawkins
    That’s not a bad idea.

  39. bob1234

    [Do you actually have a life outside of posting here?]

    In my job, most of the time i’m just sitting around. But I finish in 2 minutes! YAY! 😀

  40. jaundiced view

    Centre
    By the way, what was your anticipated inside word for the Cup? I missed it. But I backed Crime Scene each way, which was a nice little earner on Betfair.

  41. jaundiced view

    Diogenes
    let’s not hear any more of that “the people want a stronger border protection policy and that’s what Labor will now give them” rubbish.
    Yours, mine and Buckley’s I’d say.

  42. The Finnigans

    He’ll be playing next Sunday ODI along side Sachin:

    [Mumbai, Nov 5 (PTI) At a school tournament which brought Sachin Tendulkar into the limelight 21 years ago, a 12-year- old boy smashed a record 439 runs in a marathon innings that included an astonishing 56 boundaries. Playing for Springfield Rizvi School, Sarfaraz Khan also struck 12 sixes in his knock spanning two days that came off 421 deliveries against the Indian Education Society in the Under-16 Inter-School Harris Shield Tournament.

    As a 15-year-old, Tendulkar had caught the imagination of a nation with his 329-run knock in the same tournament in 1988 before making his international debut the next year. With his energy-sapping innings, Sarfaraz, a sixth standard student, also wiped off the 23-year-old previous mark of the highest individual score in the tourney that stood at 422. That knock came from Sanjeev Jadhav of Shardashram Vidyamandir, the school which Tendulkar represented two years later.]

    http://www.ptinews.com/news/363064_12-year-old-boy-hits-439-in-school-tournament

  43. Centre

    Diogs, I would say that the majority do want tougher border protection actually. But no, I think Rudd will give them what is right. And what is right is tough but humane border protection policy.

    GB @ 31 are you saying that Rudd’s policy is black and white?

  44. The Finnigans

    [ INDONESIA has given Australia another week to resolve the Oceanic Viking asylum-seeker impasse.

    Senior Indonesian diplomatic sources say the country’s Department of Foreign Affairs and military have both cleared the Australian customs vessel to stay in Indonesia until November 13.]

    Diog, how’s your “rubber time”?

  45. Centre

    jv, the tip was Alcopop. Apparently it was bred to stay the 3200m but you are never really sure until they are tested at it I suppose?

  46. Dario

    What a surprise… bob disregards the Morgan poll

  47. Tom Hawkins

    The Heysen Molotov @ 39

    30 per week is a little too severe I must admit – I wouldn’t want to see intelligent conversation stifled. Maybe a limit of 30 or 40 posts per user per day – non cumulative would help eliminate the stupid he said/she said stuff.

    Anyway, it’s just a thought – I doubt that the software would have this option even if William wanted to introduce such a thing.

  48. The Heysen Molotov

    Really I don’t think we have anything to worry about, it was a false alarm, the landslide is still on. Two polls at or after when Newspoll sampled have shown no difference, in fact this Morgan shows an 0.5% increase. One Newspoll went against conventional wisdom and we freaked out but now with this further evidence I think all is well. Nevertheless we should see 1 or 2 more polls just to be sure. (a Newspoll would be particularly handy)

  49. Tom Hawkins

    bob1234 @ 40 said

    [In my job, most of the time i’m just sitting around. But I finish in 2 minutes! YAY! :D]

    Are you work the phones at Roy Morgan?

  50. Gary Bruce

    [GB @ 31 are you saying that Rudd’s policy is black and white?]
    No, what I was saying was that bob seems to think it should be black or white when in fact it varies with the situation.

  51. don

    Aristotle@17:

    [Despite now two pollsters, Morgan, having polled over the same weekend, and Essential, across most of last week including the weekend, not having picked up any trend at all – the Newspoll result is considered absolute and without question, and until Newspoll comes out again, no other data holds any weight.]

    Onya Aristotle. Well said.

  52. Tom Hawkins

    Gary Morgan will certainly have something to crow about if the next Newpoll shows a return to the usual 59 – 41.

    And won’t there be some explaining to do by those in the media who have said that Labor is in a nose dive.

  53. Frank Calabrese

    [bob1234 @ 40 said

    In my job, most of the time i’m just sitting around. But I finish in 2 minutes! YAY! 😀

    Are you work the phones at Roy Morgan?]

    Nah, he works for Crosby/Textor 🙂

  54. Tom Hawkins

    Frank

    Spot on!

  55. Thomas Paine

    Like i said the next newspoll will be 57

  56. Frank Calabrese

    Hmm, from Mark Scott’s Twitter:

    [abcmarkscott

    Just left Lowy Institute after blistering attack by the PM on climate change deniers and sceptics. A very punchy speech.3 minutes ago from TweetDeck ]

  57. Centre

    GB, this issue is a little extraordinary. You have the Greens accusing Rudd of being just like Howard and the conservatives saying that Rudd is being too weak. They should make up their minds! 🙂

  58. Gary Bruce

    Amazing stuff isn’t it Centre? Still it was bob making the running.

  59. Centre

    GB @59, I don’t know. It’s a longshot, but maybe the answer could lie somewhere in between. 😆

  60. Diogenes

    Finns

    [Diog, how’s your “rubber time”?]

    How much did your “conflict resolution management expert” cost? He was worth every penny.

    And time is quite relative in Indonesia it seems. Perhaps there is a black hole near it which stretches it.

  61. Tom Hawkins

    I made a note on my calendar several weeks ago when Albanese said in parliament that Turnbull’s execution date (my words but same message) was to be Tuesday November 24th. Does anyone know if there is a party room meeting that day?

    If the next Newspoll is back to ‘normal’ will that be enough for the anti Turnbull group to make their move?

  62. zombie mao for Alannah

    The polls must be crazy

    Maybe Bob Ellis was right after all….. NAH

  63. Diogenes

    Frank

    There’s a link here. Sounds like the Ruddster got a bit fired up and said the deniers were recklessly gambling their grandchildren’s future away.

    Great to see. We needed a bit of emotion to get people to sit up and take notice again.

    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,26313328-29277,00.html

  64. scorpio

    Lenore Taylor with her analysis of Rudd’s strategy and why it is a total failure!

    [The Prime Minister has now conducted 14 media interviews in the past few days, every time repeating how tough he is on people-smugglers, how humane he is towards asylum-seekers, how “calm and methodical” he is and how the whole issue is very, very complex.

    All of which is probably true. But in none of the interviews was he able to explain what he intended to do about the Oceanic Viking stand-off, or about the increase in asylum-seeker arrivals by boat. Kevin Rudd seems to believe that if people just understand that the issue is difficult, they will judge him less harshly for not having clear answers for a problem where clear answers don’t really exist.]

    [The whole exercise becomes even less credible when Rudd tries to claim it has nothing to do with the fact Labor dropped seven percentage points in Monday’s Newspoll.]

    And then brings in the mandatory “Labor Insiders believe” and “one Official said”!
    Yeah, right, Lenore. Rudd the control freak just lets all and sundry say whatever they like to the likes of you and Milne who is another one who constantly gets the “good oil”right from the horses mouth!

    [Labor insiders believe that even if this week’s Newspoll does turn out to be an outlier, the trend and its cause are clear. All the voters deserting Labor went to the Coalition. The Green vote remained the same. Border protection is exactly the kind of issue to drive that kind of change.

    “When asylum is the issue, our vote drops,” said one official. “Every day we talk about asylum is a day we lose.”]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/pm-blitzes-media-with-non-messages/story-e6frg6zo-1225794867090

  65. Diogenes

    Here is what Rudd said. It’s a belter. God bless that man. 😀

    [“The argument that we must not act until others do is an argument that has been used by political cowards since time immemorial, both of the left and the right.

    “They are reckless gamblers who are betting all our futures on their arrogant assumption that their intuitions should triumph over the evidence.

    “You are betting our jobs, our houses, our farms, our reefs, our economy and our future on an intuition, on a gut feeling, on a political prejudice you have about science.”]

  66. scorpio

    Tom,
    [If the next Newspoll is back to ‘normal’ will that be enough for the anti Turnbull group to make their move?]

    Graham Richardson seemed to think so last night on QANDA. I don’t think that there would be a better reader of political operations in the country!

  67. Centre

    Before Rudd became leader, Labor had good 2PP figures but Beazley was miles behind Howard as PPM.

    Maybe if the Liberal 2PP vote keeps improving then they may be more seriously tempted to change leader?

  68. scorpio

    Tom, although he did qualify that by saying that in reality, they really don’t have anyone else.

    All in all, a real quandary for the Libs!

  69. Gary Bruce

    [Labor insiders believe that even if this week’s Newspoll does turn out to be an outlier, the trend and its cause are clear.]
    Lenore, sweet thang, if the poll turns out to be an oulier there is no bloody trend worth talking about. Oh, and there are other polls to consider.

  70. enjaybee

    61-39. What a nice set of figures. Goes a long way to dispel fears I have of the opposition’s tactics of using border protection and the MSM dog whistling to attack the government’s popularity. BTW, if my memory serves me correctly, the last Morgan poll prior to the last election was the most accurate of all the polls so IMHO it has as much credibility as any other poll.

  71. Gary Bruce

    [Graham Richardson seemed to think so last night on QANDA. I don’t think that there would be a better reader of political operations in the country!]
    Agreed. Like him or loathe him he knows what he’s talking about.

  72. Gary Bruce

    Isn’t it interesting that even Lenore is using the “even if it turns out to be an outlier” argument. They must feel it could very well be one.

  73. Bushfire Bill

    [… let’s not hear any more of that “the people want a stronger border protection policy and that’s what Labor will now give them” rubbish.]

    Well Diog, you didn’t hear it from me. I was for Newspoll being an outlier from the start.

    I wouldn’t put some massaging of the result past certain people at News either. You’d massage a single result in only a critical situation, not to give heart to the Opposition (because the polls would return to normal the next time anyway). You’d do it to panic the government into chancing something precipitate, say, sending in the SAS, or bringing the OV hijackers to Xmas Island to bury the problem. That way the “bas poll result” becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Thankfully, the extent of Rudd’s “panic” seems to have been to blitz the airwaves, calling for calm.

    We have been reminded in the past that News “owns” Newspoll. Unless you do something with your proprietary rights from time to time, what’s the point of ownership?

    As to why Rudd isn’t telling journalists exactly what he’s intending to do with the OV, why would he? Not only have they with their “gotchas” and their bootstrappers no right to hear a sensible answer until they ask a sensible question, but revealing all now would tip off the hijackers as to what’s going to happen. A silly idea, almost as silly as recent calls from the neo-bleeding hearts at News for Rudd to “spend some of his political capital”.

    They wish.

  74. jaundiced view

    Diogenes
    “They are reckless gamblers who are betting all our futures on their arrogant assumption that their intuitions should triumph over the evidence.”
    Don Watson is back! 🙂
    It is a pleasure to see Rudd is finally getting out there and smashing the deniers and delayers down. He’s finally realised that the public is in front of him on it and he’s safe to go harder.

    I hope he keeps saying it, and acts accordingly at Copenhagen. I hope it means he is prepared to raise the targets too. It’s a political winner after all – the public supports it and wants it stronger. It means Rudd as a leader in the largest international co-operative exercise ever. It means more jobs in better industries, it means a growing economy based on better practices – how could that not provide the best material possible for an election campaign?

  75. Musrum

    [“They are reckless gamblers who are betting all our futures on their arrogant assumption that their intuitions should triumph over the evidence.”]

    Obviously he is launching the first salvo for the CPRS DD election… 🙂

  76. Tom Hawkins

    Scorpio

    [Tom, although he did qualify that by saying that in reality, they really don’t have anyone else.

    All in all, a real quandary for the Libs!]

    And we shouldn’t forget that they need his money to finance the campaign seeing as big business will be holding back.

  77. Boerwar

    Rudd is the one who is gambling with the future of our grandchildren when he promotes the idea that another 13 million carbon dioxide emitters is a good thing. Chap has not got a clue about this issue.

    The Great Triangulator is not on his ownsome. He has the full support of the OO for this one.

    The Q&A panel last night did not blink on this issue either. Maxine was fulsome on the big Australia. If she wants ‘big’ she can have the Simpon’s Desert and the Gibson Desert all to herself for starters.

    Suprisingly, the only one with an iota of hesitation, or an iota of grounding, about the whole idea was Chicka. She was a bit worried about the notion that all the folk who are going to live on the inland side of the Gread Divide might not have any water. Damn right. Have they started trucking water to Forbes yet? Not far off, I believe.

  78. scorpio

    Kevvie’s rant even got a run in the OZ!

    [KEVIN Rudd has savaged opponents of the government’s emissions trading scheme and climate change sceptics as a minority who are “holding the world to ransom” and risking the future, livelihoods and homes of Australian children. ]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/rudd-accuses-climate-change-sceptics-coalition-of-reckless-bet-on-climate-change/story-e6frgczf-1225795135536

  79. ruawake

    If Newspoll returns to normal next time, as I expect it will. Will the “journalists” who were screaming about boats retract their opinion that the public had turned against Rudd?

    Or will we get stories about the “volatile electorate” who will swing from day to day?

  80. Boerwar

    I hope that Newspoll does swing back to normal. It might help put the asylum seeker mania to bed for a while.

  81. vera

    Kev about to speak on APac now

  82. jaundiced view

    BB
    I agree it isn’t simply about spending political capital, without more.
    This is what a good government of democratic leadership does with policy on issues such as refugee arrivals, with a high degree of prejudice being expressed in the community by a loud minority, due to a poisonous government policy like Howard’s:

    1. Adopts the advice of expert independent groups as a basis for policy refinement (such as academic studies, scientists, expert panels and inquiries, government bodies (eg Human Rights Commission), NGOs, and world bodies of relevant expertise (eg UN agencies)

    2. Identifies the areas requiring change, whether or not the subject of debate and controversy.

    3. Consults with affected groups, if any.

    4. Explains to the community extent necessary depending on the level of controversy the need to make change. (Ranging from standard press releases to Ministerial campaigns to major PM speeches to the type of full-on 1980s HIV, or war footing action campaigns)

    5. Legislates via parliamentary bill, or regulates the changes.

    6. Enjoys the fruits of the community’s respect at the next election for its strong leadership in neutralising a vocal and prejudiced few.

    7. Refuses to pander to rabid prejudice or narrow vested interests, continually articulating what is ethically the right thing to do, speechmaking, press-conferencing and even advertising as necessary.

    This applies to many such issues. But we have seen none of it followed in the case of asylum seekers by the government since a few minor changes after the election (incl. axing the Pacific Solution). The Human Rights Commission is being held in contempt, which is a real concern.

    If you lose a few more votes than you win doing what is ethically right, then that’s the price of integrity. Rudd wouldn’t be losing many overall if he were to follow the above process. And he still thankfully (on Morgan) has the electoral buffer to feel secure taking the right action.

  83. Tom Hawkins

    Good on ya Vera – watching now

  84. scorpio

    JV,

    [It is a pleasure to see Rudd is finally getting out there and smashing the deniers and delayers down. He’s finally realised that the public is in front of him on it and he’s safe to go harder.

    I hope he keeps saying it, and acts accordingly at Copenhagen. I hope it means he is prepared to raise the targets too.]

    I hope he follows up with a solid Press Club Address now and really gives it to the Journalists and their Media bosses who have been pushing the sceptic and denier line so hard now in support of the Coalition backing away from Howards ETS policy he took to the election.

    I believe the only reason Rudd went for the 5% to 25% option when he released Labor’s policy after Garnaut, was because he thought that Turnbull and the Coalition would have to go along with it and he could get it passed through the senate without any drama.

    Rudd preferred a lower target than the Greens had proposed and because the Coalition had canvassed at least 20%, then Rudd calculated that there was no way the Libs could not support a lower target. How wrong he was in that. He didn’t include the Nats and their division and intransigence or the divisions within the Liberals that Turnbull has absolutely “no” control over.

    It’s a pity that the Greens sided with the Coalition, because that assisted Turnbull to prevaricate and now we will probably have to wait until after the next election to get an effective ETS in place!

  85. Boerwar

    Frank, Scorpio, Diogenese et al..

    Could not agree more that it is good to see Rudd having a decent bash at CC deniers. Good leadership.

  86. Boerwar

    Even if I am still a bit grumpy about those 13 million extra C02 emitters.

  87. Boerwar

    *goes to beard the mussels*

  88. vera

    Rudd’s speech
    http://www.pm.gov.au/node/6305
    I like the ending 😀
    [Malcolm, Barnaby, Andrew, Janet – stop gambling with our future.

    You’ve got to know when to fold ’em – and for the skeptics, that time has come.

    The Government I lead will act.]

  89. Grog

    [I’ll need another Newspoll before I stop being concerned.]

    oh bob, you concern troll you 😀

  90. Rewi Lyall

    This ended up being the last comment on the previous thread, so may have been missed:

    A view on the likely outcome of Copenhagen from India:

    http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/blog/possible-elements-copenhagen-agreement

    [In other words, it will be a nothing more than a ‘pledge and review’ agreement, signed by the most powerful of the world. Leaders will pledge what their countries are prepared to do domestically. The world community will sign off on it, with an agreement that there is a review (or scrutiny) to check how countries are delivering on their promises.

    This agreement as it is only ‘pledging’ domestic targets will not distinguish between historical polluters – those who are required to take action first – and the rest of the world. This will be a politically binding agreement. It will set the framework for negotiations on a legally binding single agreement post-Copenhagen.]

    So, if Sunita Narain is correct, and the agreement will be about pledging domestic targets, where does that leave Australia’s proposed range of 5-25%?

    As a further question/point, doesn’t the likelihood that the Framework Convention will only be about commitments to domestic targets make it imperative that Australia’s legislation is passed? Otherwise, what domestic target could we possibly commit to in Copenhagen?

  91. don

    Boerwar@78:

    [Rudd is the one who is gambling with the future of our grandchildren when he promotes the idea that another 13 million carbon dioxide emitters is a good thing. Chap has not got a clue about this issue]

    While I agree that Oz needs another 13 million people like a hole in the head, to be fair, those are not extra people, but mostly people migrating from someplace else.

    And don’t forget, Rudd uses focus groups and internal polling as part of his daily bread. There has not been a scintilla of angst that I have detected in MSM about what I think of as a horrendous outcome for Australia, so his information was spot on.

    It must have played well with business (of course) and with the “ordinary person in the street”.

    Which is scary.

  92. bob1234

    [Lenore, sweet thang, if the poll turns out to be an oulier there is no bloody trend worth talking about. Oh, and there are other polls to consider.]

    Utter rubbish. The trend since the 2007 election has been downward. Possum can back me up on that with all his graphs and whatnot.

  93. evan14

    Bob has taken over from “Lose The Election Please” as King of the Concern Trolls.

  94. bob1234

    And I don’t say it as if it’s been deserved, I say it as a matter of truth, and really, physics. What goes up must come down. And Rudd has come down. Minus the 52% poll, he’s still stratospheric, but not as stratospheric as he used to be.

  95. ruawake

    How many days does it take for the world population to grow by 13 million?

  96. evan14

    [Utter rubbish. The trend since the 2007 election has been downward. Possum can back me up on that with all his graphs and whatnot.]

    You want to take Possum on? I doubt you’d get within a bull’s roar of winning that argument.

  97. bob1234

    [What a surprise… bob disregards the Morgan poll]

    Show me one time I haven’t.

    Oops!

    I’ve always maintained that Morgan is rubbish – always. I’ve never taken any notice of any poll, up or down. You won’t be able to find anywhere that I have.

  98. bob1234

    And http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Pollchart-tpp-event.svg shows why Morgan is rubbish. Too many outliers.

  99. scorpio

    Boerwar

    [Rudd is the one who is gambling with the future of our grandchildren when he promotes the idea that another 13 million carbon dioxide emitters is a good thing. Chap has not got a clue about this issue.]

    I have seen some highly critical posts in regard to Rudd’s projection of a population of 35 million by 2050.

    It got me thinking that really he was just projecting a figure based on historical average population growth and not a figure based on an “accelerated” rate of population growth driven by a specific Labor population growth policy.

    And guess what? Population growth in Australia since 1948 to 2008 (50 years) has been in a straight line at 2.6 million every 10 years.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:AUS_population_development_1788_to_2008.png

    If that growth stays constant up until 2050 at 2.6 million increase every 10 years we will reach close enough to 33 million. Only 2 million less than the 35m figure which could be explained by an increased birth rate due to an increased migrant population which traditionally has larger families.

    I think Rudd is getting wacked for absolutely no logical reason in this regard unless people wish Government to somehow stop people from breeding or cut the migrant and refugee programs back savagely!

  100. bob1234

    And re http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Pollchart-tpp-event.svg it really shows how Morgan completely and utterly failed in the leadup to the 2007 election.

  101. zoomster

    bob, do not take the name of our possum in vain.

    and try looking at the graphs the right way up…how an election result of 52.7 and present trend results of 57.1 is a downward trend is difficult to explain otherwise.

  102. scorpio

    [I’ve always maintained that Morgan is rubbish – always. I’ve never taken any notice of any poll, up or down. You won’t be able to find anywhere that I have.]

    Seems strange to me that someone who hasn’t “any” regard for opinion polls, would even bother to even log on to a blog that has, as its primary purpose, the discussion and interpretation of opinion polls!

  103. bob1234

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26313946-5005962,00.html

    Fiona Patten, leader of the Australian Sex Party, to run in Higgins.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Sex_Party

    I think the ASP has some fantastic policies. Next election i’ll definately consider moving the Greens and Labor down a peg and putting the ASP first. Liberals last as always.

  104. bob1234

    And BTW, Ms Patten is posting at the Higgins by-election thread right here on PB.

  105. adrian

    It is clear from any sensible reading of the polling data that the trend has been up since the election. To suggest otherwise is pure fantasy.

  106. bob1234

    [Seems strange to me that someone who hasn’t “any” regard for opinion polls, would even bother to even log on to a blog that has, as its primary purpose, the discussion and interpretation of opinion polls!]

    You’ve got to be kidding. Newspoll is the poll I take notice of, I also take notice of the others but less-so, Morgan being the least. Where don’t I have any regard for opinion polls? And the primary purpose is psephology, not reflecting on polling numbers. This site used to be a lot better before it was overtaken by noobs. Now I just go with the flow.

  107. bob1234

    [It is clear from any sensible reading of the polling data that the trend has been up since the election. To suggest otherwise is pure fantasy.]

    Possum can you please step in? Since the 2007 election, have the polls gone up or down?

    Here’s the long view: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/the-long-view/ – look since the 2007 election.

    I’m sure Possum has a 2007 election to now graph either by each poll or on average (or both) lying around somewhere.

  108. Boerwar

    don and scorpio

    The premise for Rudd’s (and probably the majority) view is that Australia is big therefore it is somehow empty. In the sense of sustainability, Australia is actually small. Going on extinction rates et cetera, et cetera, we are already beyond our carrying capacity, at our present rates of per capita consumption.

    My concern is that we do not have a population policy. We need one. Here are some broad policy options for 2050:

    1. reduce the per capita consumption significantly so that we can carry extra people. (I would be quite happy if the extra people were 100% asylum seekers).
    2. maintain our per capita consumption but seek to reduce our population to a sustainable level.
    3. A mix of the above.
    4. continue with current per capita consumption and add some more people. (current approach).

    Population programs are tricky from an ethical point of view. That does not mean that we can, or should, avoid discussing them face on.

  109. evan14

    Bob, you’ll be so disappointed when the next Newspoll returns to 56-44!

  110. Diogenes

    vera

    The following are taken from Rudd’s speech. He personally attacks Turnbull and Barnaby, but the extraordinary thing is he repeatedly names Bolt and Albrechtsen as well. This can only mean all out war. 😀

    Pass the popcorn.

    [Malcolm, Barnaby, Andrew, Janet, even Lord Monckton shouldn’t even bother with the pretence of science and just admit the currency of their prescription for inaction has all the legitimacy of a roulette wheel.]

    [That is the simplest premise upon which the scepticism of Malcolm, Barnaby, Andrew, Alan, Janet and even Lord Monckton is based. They cling to that single premise like a polar bear clings to a melting iceberg.]

    [Without that premise, their scepticism is sunk. Malcolm, Barnaby, Andrew, Janet and the Thatcherite Lord Monckton are betting the house on that simple premise that the cost of not acting is nothing.]

    [Malcolm, Barnaby, Andrew, Janet – stop gambling with our future.]

  111. scorpio

    [ Lenore, sweet thang, if the poll turns out to be an oulier there is no bloody trend worth talking about. Oh, and there are other polls to consider.

    Utter rubbish. The trend since the 2007 election has been downward. Possum can back me up on that with all his graphs and whatnot.]

    If you took the time to read the article, Bob, and not concentrate on having a shot at another poster,you would have realised Lenore was “not” talking about long term trends or any such thing.

    She was proselytising that the Newspoll 52/48 was the “beginning”of a trend which, as was pointed out by a number of posters, is complete garbage without “any” evidence to support it!

    There certainly “are” other polls to consider. How about the last Newspoll, the last Morgan poll and the last Essential, all supported by today’s Morgan.

    Only a goose would come out with something like that, Bob! And you’re surely not one of those are you Bob?

  112. Tom

    [The premise for Rudd’s (and probably the majority) view is that Australia is big therefore it is somehow empty]

    I was of the belief, and yes – I could be wRONg, that Rudd was basing his talk on Treasury projections of the population. If that is the case, would you rather Rudd talk about us having a population of 35 million (Like you, I beleive it is BAD news) or would you rather he avoid the topic and live in some form of denial?

    Tom.

  113. Centre

    Bob, the sex party wants a listing for Viagra on the PBS. You will be trying it for the sake of it.

    OK, got my vote.

  114. scorpio

    Diogenes,

    [the extraordinary thing is he repeatedly names Bolt and Albrechtsen as well. This can only mean all out war. :D]

    Rudd’s probably been talking to Obama and they have decided to have a crack at Murdoch from both sides of the Pacific. Sort of jam him in the middle, so to speak! 😉

  115. Possum Comitatus

    Aristotle way back yonder on polling firms went:

    [Honestly! Could there be more ignorance and stupidity on display!]

    Yes!

    Someone could say “Who are these people that get polled? Are they all in safe Labor electorates? I’ve never been polled!” 😛

  116. Gary Bruce

    [Utter rubbish. The trend since the 2007 election has been downward. Possum can back me up on that with all his graphs and whatnot.]
    Lenore was talking about the asylum seeker issue causing this trend down bob.

  117. Diogenes

    Who are these people that get polled? Are they all in safe Labor electorates? I’ve never been polled!

  118. Grog

    [Who are these people that get polled? Are they all in safe Labor electorates? I’ve never been polled!]

  119. Grog

    oh bugger Dio you beat me to it!!!

  120. Gary Bruce

    112 scorpio – Couldn’t have said it better myself scorpio.

  121. scorpio

    [That is the simplest premise upon which the scepticism of Malcolm, Barnaby, Andrew, Alan, Janet and even Lord Monckton is based. They cling to that single premise like a polar bear clings to a melting iceberg.]

    I bet they’re all sitting down at their key boards right now furiously drafting out their counter attack for tomorrows newspapers and tonight’s blog sites!

  122. scorpio

    [Someone could say “Who are these people that get polled? Are they all in safe Labor electorates? I’ve never been polled!”]

    Possum,

    I’ve got a funny feeling I have seen something along those lines one or two times. One or two hundred, that is! 😉

  123. Andrew

    Is this a record discrepancy ie. 9% between Morgan and Newspoll 2PP??
    Whilst Morgan’s numbers are consistently higher for Labor, surely if there was such a massive movement a la Newspoll, we’d see something in this morgan??

  124. Grog

    If Rudd really wanted to attack Jones, he would just distribute to all households a CD of his interview with Turnbull on Monday.

  125. Andrew

    I’d be interested to hear the spin if Newspoll moves back up BEFORE the OV situation is sorted. More likely it will be sorted and the spin will be that that has caused the movement back

  126. scorpio

    Gary Bruce,

    Bob wants Possum to save his skin now!

  127. PAAPTSEF

    Looks to me like Newspoll might have been a case of Rupert throwing his empty pistol at Rudd and missing.

  128. Grog

    Serious polling question – do they poll only/mostly in swinging seats?

    In the run up to the last election newspoll came out with those “swing seats only’ polls. sop does anyone know what % they usually get from there?

    How are electorates taken into account with the sampling?

    I’m guessing their sampling computations must be pretty “spiffy” (and no doubt would be the thing all organisations are most protective of?)

  129. Grog

    What does the next newspoll have to be for people to think it was or was not an outlier? Is 55-45 the boundary?

  130. Possum Comitatus

    bob went:

    [Possum can you please step in? Since the 2007 election, have the polls gone up or down?]

    The trend is here:
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/11/05/pollytrend-and-odds-and-ends/

  131. Tom Hawkins

    Grog 130

    55-45 sounds about right to me. I think Labor will have taken a hit over the OV problem but not the 7 points that Newspoll came up with.

  132. Tom Hawkins

    [Since the 2007 election, have the polls gone up or down?]

    They’ve gone up AND down

  133. vera

    [Wealthy need super tax breaks: Turnbull]
    Malcolm is trying for a single digit PPM 😉
    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/wealthy-need-super-tax-breaks-turnbull-20091106-i1uw.html

  134. Gary Bruce

    [55-45 sounds about right to me. I think Labor will have taken a hit over the OV problem but not the 7 points that Newspoll came up with.]
    I agree with the 55/45 but I still don’t believe the 59/60/61’s TPP of any of the polls. I’m thinking 55/56. So I’m not sure that 55 would necessarily be “a hit”.

  135. don

    Boerwar@109″

    [The premise for Rudd’s (and probably the majority) view is that Australia is big therefore it is somehow empty. In the sense of sustainability, Australia is actually small. Going on extinction rates et cetera, et cetera, we are already beyond our carrying capacity, at our present rates of per capita consumption.]

    Couldn’t agree more. Somehow we have to reduce or at least stabilise our effect on the environment. A ZPG target is one way to do that, and in our situation that would have to involve reducing the migrant and/or refugee intake.

    But look at Scorpio@100:

    [If that growth stays constant up until 2050 at 2.6 million increase every 10 years we will reach close enough to 33 million. Only 2 million less than the 35m figure which could be explained by an increased birth rate due to an increased migrant population which traditionally has larger families.]

    That’s where Rudd gets the figures from.

    Thanks Scorpio, much appreciated.

  136. Possum Comitatus

    Grog – they poll nationally, with a sort of quota set for each State and capital/non-capital city.

    Because electorates are all roughly the same size, you don’t really need to go on a seat by seat basis, you can just let probability take control using a large enough sample – of which 1000-1100 does the job.

    That way, the proportion of voters they’d get from marginal seats would be approximately equal to the proportion of voters that live in marginal seats – all things being equal on any given day etc etc

  137. Tom Hawkins

    [I’m not sure that 55 would necessarily be “a hit”.]

    OK, a slight tap then. 😉

  138. Frank Calabrese

    Ahh, THeir ABC keeping the Della Bosca affair alive, and by co-incidence, repeated her appearance on The Sideshow early Thursday morning as well.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/06/2735847.htm?section=justin

  139. scorpio

    Tom Hawkins,

    But tom, that doesn’t sound right to me.

    If the previous News poll, which was taken when the AS issue was very much alive and getting substantial media coverage, and the Morgan poll last Friday as well as Monday’s Essential, (all around the 60/40 mark) didn’t show any effect from the OV and AS issue, then how could Labor have taken a “hit” over the issue.

    And “why” would the next Newspoll be likely to be at 55/45 when none of the others have moved.

    There would have to be more than a slight fit of hysterics in the media, QANDA and a handful of Libs spruking to the media that Rudd is the Government and they, the Libs have no policy to do anything for Newspoll to jump from 60/40 to 52/48 to 55.45. The only explanation for a 55/45 Newspoll next time would be to make their outlier this week not look so obvious.

    If Newspoll keeps running wide of the other pollsters over the next couple of polls, it would indicate a problem with “their” sampling, not the sampling of the others.

    I don’t think that “anyone” can read a hit for Labor in this or the next Newspoll!

  140. Tom Hawkins

    scorpio, Hit became Slight Tap while you were composing.

  141. scorpio

    [scorpio, Hit became Slight Tap while you were composing.]

    Tom, sort of a slight tap with a feather! 😉

  142. Rewi Lyall

    Someone asked about why Albanese set the 24th as Turnbull’s day of reckoning.

    Is it possibly the date on which he’ll have to take the results of any negotiated agreement over the ETS to the partyroom?

  143. Tom Hawkins

    I often conduct my own polls when chatting to my workmates who come from ALP, Liberal and Green persuasions. No Nats amongst them. The Labor people almost to a man/woman are disappointed with the lack of progress over the OV issue. They still have a lot of respect for Rudd and support the Govt generally across the range of issues but they have marked the govt down slightly on that issue. I have more than reasonable confidence in my polling methods. 🙂

  144. vera

    At the end of his speech tonight Rudd took questions from the audience for about 15minutes. While answering one he mentioned that he’d be in India next week.
    Everytime he is out of the country the Libs and toad jurnos come up with a story to try to embarrass him and divert attention from the purpose of his trip.
    Wonder what it’ll be this time?
    Leaving the country to hide from asylum seekers maybe?
    Or he should call into Sri Lankan on his way and solve the problem?
    Then again they aren’t the smartest lot, weeping hosties and hairdriers are about all they are capable of.

  145. scorpio

    [Is it possibly the date on which he’ll have to take the results of any negotiated agreement over the ETS to the partyroom?]

    And exactly a week after the next fortnightly Newspoll!!!

  146. Tom Hawkins

    vera, What did you think of the PM’s speech? I thought it was a beauty.

  147. Grog

    yeah 55+ and above to me is business as usual. <55 means the start of a shift (possibly 😆 ).

  148. scorpio

    Turnbull want’s to be a bit careful with his language. I think someone recently got sued for making a similar comment in the US.

    [“When the government borrows and spends with the Paris Hilton-type recklessness of Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan then inevitably they are going to raise taxes to pay for it,” he said.]

  149. vera

    Tom
    I missed the middle part becasue the OH was down the bush calling out to me to come and have a look at an echidna he and the cats had found!
    There’s a replay on Sunday so I might watch the whole thing then.
    The Q&A part at the end was fantastic, the way Kev just goes straight in and answers with so much knowledge no matter what he’s asked is amazing I reckon.
    We have got ourselves one very intelligent PM there 🙂

  150. mexicanbeemer

    That trend graph is interesting for it shows that between Feb 2008 to October 2008 the ALP dropped somewhat only to see a steady rise

  151. BH

    [Just left Lowy Institute after blistering attack by the PM on climate change deniers and sceptics. A very punchy speech.3 minutes ago from TweetDeck]

    I caught it on A-Pac, It sure was punchy. He didn’t hold back so he looked like a bloke who wasn’t too worried about the newspoll next week.

    Is it a fact that people answer differently facetoface than over the phone? or just talk.

  152. mexicanbeemer

    That trend graph is interesting for it shows that between Feb 2008 to October 2008 the ALP dropped somewhat only to see a steady rise

    Then a sort period of increasing poll leads then a very sharp fall between April to July 2009 then a rise and since August 2009 basically a flat line with a slight upword movement towards the ALP.

    I agree with Gary, i think the real TPP lead for the ALP is about 10 to 14 points

  153. bob1234

    [Bob, you’ll be so disappointed when the next Newspoll returns to 56-44!]

    No, i’ll be relieved.

  154. bob1234

    [That trend graph is interesting for it shows that between Feb 2008 to October 2008 the ALP dropped somewhat only to see a steady rise]

    That was the GFC.

  155. Possum Comitatus

    Beemer went:

    [That trend graph is interesting for it shows that between Feb 2008 to October 2008 the ALP dropped somewhat only to see a steady rise]

    I wonder what happened in September 2008? 😛

  156. Rewi Lyall

    vera, how do the cats deal with an echidna? With great caution, I’d imagine.

  157. The Finnigans

    St Bob was launching the Greens campaign today at Bradfield.

    Cant wait for the launch of the Sex Party by Fiona Patten and Ziggy Stardust. If they do it at Chatswood Chase, there will be plenty of chasing around. :roll:

  158. fredn

    I think the rational response to the Newspoll is “outlier”.
    It was fun to stir the rusted on Labor supporters, it was sad to see them turn into a right wing quivering mass under pressure.

  159. bob1234

    I see nobody has bothered to stick their neck out and say whether they think that a government should govern by what’s popular and what a majority of people want, or whether they agree with Rudd when he says he governs in the national interest, what he does may be unpopular, of which he makes no apology about?

    Telling.

  160. Diogenes

    [While answering one he mentioned that he’d be in India next week.]

    To implement the Tamil Nadu Solution obviously. 😀

    Given that Finns and his cronies have let us down, it’s time for the Diogenes-Ramanujan Axis to take over.

  161. vera

    Rewi Lyall
    Yep, the same way they deal with the possums, run for their lives! I got scardy cats, well the possums do go up to them and sniff them.

  162. mexicanbeemer

    two things!

    Bob! the GFC started in October 2008, the early part of 2008 was dominated by the PBA increasing interest rates and talk of a touch federal budget

    Possum! If my memory is correct that was when Turnbull became Liberal leader.

  163. Gary Bruce

    [I often conduct my own polls when chatting to my workmates who come from ALP, Liberal and Green persuasions.]
    Believe me Tom that method means bugger all.

  164. Tom Hawkins

    160

    What are you talking about? Never mind – forget I asked.

  165. The Finnigans

    [Given that Finns and his cronies have let us down, it’s time for the Diogenes-Ramanujan Axis to take over.]

    Bloody hell. Diog, i have stretched the time twice already. Herr Einstein would be proud with what i have done with that rubber time. i am not even approaching the speed of light and my Theory of Everything about Indonesia has been torpedoed by the National Police.

  166. vera

    Diog
    Kev might get off the plane at Indonesia and skipper the OV to India do you think?

  167. Tom Hawkins

    [Believe me Tom that method means bugger all.]

    Gary, You are so wrong – but I accept your right to be wrong.

  168. Gary Bruce

    160 bob1234 – answered bob, just look harder.

  169. Gary Bruce

    So a group of, what, 10 is reliable? Hell, tell the pollsters, they’re wasting their money.

  170. Trubbell at Mill

    163
    […the early part of 2008 was dominated by the PBA increasing interest rates…]

    Perverse Bank of Australia?

  171. Tom Hawkins

    What makes you think it’s limited to 10? Who said anything about pollsters wasting their money. Actually pollsters don’t waste money – if anything it’s their clients.