Roy Morgan has leapt in with last weekend’s face-to-face polling of 1050 respondents, showing Labor’s lead has actually nudged slightly upwards: from 60.5-39.5 to 61-39. Labor’s primary vote is down one point to 51 per cent, but the Coalition’s is also down two to 32.5 per cent. Contra Newspoll, the Greens are up two to 9.5 per cent.
Other news:
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Julia Gillard hopes to save “soft Left” colleague Laurie Ferguson by moving him to Werriwa, whose member Chris Hayes would have to make do with Macarthur – in turn cutting loose Nick Bleasdale, the candidate from 2007 who appeared lined up for another shot. It appears Hayes will suffer that fate in any case, as it has been agreed Werriwa should go to the Left. However, Anthony Albanese’s “hard Left” wants it to go to Damien Ogden, an LHMU organiser who defeated incumbent Ken McDonnell for preselection in Sutherland Shire Council’s “E” ward before last year’s elections, but ultimately failed to win the seat. Hayes is understandably not keen, and is calling for the matter to be determined by the local branches – as Ferguson did last week when his ambition was to stay on in redrawn Reid at the expense of John Murphy. That appears to be off the table because the seat is reserved for the Right. Importantly, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Prime Minister is also of a mind to throw Ferguson a lifeline.
• VexNews tells of a further brush fire in Macquarie, to be vacated at the election by Bob Debus. According to VexNews, Debus and the hard Left would have the national executive decide the issue in favour of Susan Templeman, principal of Templeman Consulting, who sells herself as “one of the country’s leading media trainers and coaches”. However, local branches favour Debus antagonist Adam Searle, a “soft Left” member whose designs on Debus’s old state seat of Blue Mountains were thwarted by Debus’s recruitment of Phil Koperberg. When Debus agreed to make life easier for the Prime Minister by relinquishing his position in the ministry in June, Glenn Milne in The Australian reported talk he had done so on the condition that he get to choose his successor in Macquarie.
• The Australian reports Warren Entsch will try to win Leichhardt back for the LNP at the next election. Entsch retired before the last election, and Labor demolished the 10.3 per cent margin he had built up with a 14.3 per cent swing. He floated the possibility of running for Cairns or Barron River at the March state election, but thought better of it. Teresa Gambaro, who lost Petrie at the election, plans to nominate for Brisbane, where the redistribution has cut Labor’s margin from 6.8 per cent to 3.8 per cent. UPDATE: AAP has reported Gambaro has indeed been preselected (thanks to LTEP in comments).
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports a preselection challenge from the Right to Philip Ruddock in Berowra has been withdrawn. The identity of the challenger is not offered.
972 Comments
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Yes, modern right wing journos have nothing to offer but lies and fear. Thanks jh.
Note Rudd’s rather enthusiastic endorsement of Nathan Rees!
Perhaps the Feds are about to help out their cousins in NSW with some more infastructure funding?
That goes for right wing pollies as well. Do the actually still have an ideology.
You’re scraping the bottom of the dungpile when you get to Milne, Ackerman, Bolt and Steve Lewis.
GB
Have you read what the rest of the world has said about our refugee policy? We’re getting caned.
vp: Match starts: 8.30 am
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1091108/jsp/sports/story_11713015.jsp
Yes BB, unless its all the newspolls prior to the last one!
If Nielsen tomorrow and Newspoll on Tuesday revert to “normal service”, ie. 56-44, the right wing media won’t be happy, there goes their narrative of a huge Liberal comeback.
Wonder how aussies see howard re dishonesty and respectability. I will always see him as bushe’s sock puppet and a man who rarely had the interests of Australians at heart. They should do a poll.
We’re getting caned by the NYT, BBC and New Straits Times.
I noticed the question (this morning’s Insiders) put to the ordinary Aussies related to the governments “drop in the polls” – not the drop in one poll but a drop in other polls as well. I don’t know if this is sloppiness on the part of the questioner or simply to avoid the slight complication in having to explain that for two other polls it was steady as she goes.
For a program that wants to be seen as a place for serious analysis of all things politics it falls way short of the mark.
Sloppiness? More like deliberate deception. funny how the polls get so much discussion when ONE poll moves in the coalitions direction
And evan it should be tues week for newspoll not this tues unless they decide to go a week early
And William, I know that you hate Ellis, but are his comments about differing sample sizes from Newspoll and Newspoll repeating polling twice a valid criticism? If the sample size varies, what’s to stop them from choosing an arbitrary cut off that suits them??
The over emphahsis on the poll drop may be due to the old adage that, in Australia, “There are too many news journalists but not enough news”.
Perhaps their reputation? I don’t see any evidence to support them distorting their own polling other than conspiracy theories.
Andrew – Ellis doesnt know his arse from a hole in the ground with this.
Newspoll runs a sample around 1100 every fortnight, Nielsen 1400 once a month.
No ifs, no buts – that’s their sample size. The only time it changes is for the last few polls of an election campaign when pollsters sometimes up their sample size to increase accuracy by reducing the margin or error.
Newspoll doesnt run three separate samples and then chooses one for publication – Ellis is bullshitting.
A couple of articles on the fellow Liberals have virtually canonised …
The great deceiver is in a class of his own
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/the-great-deceiver-is-in-a-class-of-his-own/2007/11/12/1194766588117.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
___
Clinton Porteous, The Courier-Mail, April 23, 2007:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,21602037-2,00.html
Finns,
I agree, I too would like to see Margo Kingston back on the Fairfax net with her own blog again, it was the trail blazer. Yet her leftish or ‘Not Happy John’ side of politics got her removed while Bolt, Blair and co remain. Blair was even given a job by the Tele.
At that time the Fairfax internet site was the Leader.
Possum
Can you pass around a few tin-foil hats because your post seems to have blown a few off?
“Just so I’m clear… is TheTruthHurts still claiming be a former ALP voter?”
I’m not a former ALP voter, nor a former L/NP voter. I’m just A voter.
Last election I just happened to vote for Labor. Other elections I have voted other parties including Liberals.
The rusted-on’s should get a reality check and realise not everyone votes for the same party every election… they are whats called the rusted on’s. You could learn a thing or two about voting for the party that you think will best represent you, verus blindly voting for a party like a brain-dead AFL Footy team fan.
Poss – I thought the Newspoll bloke said something about redoing the poll 3 times last week because he was surprised by the outcome. Did that mean just checking the existing figures or actual repolling people.
thanks Possum, but is it exactly 1100 or around 1100??
Errrr, Dio, I don’t think you can level too much of the blame for this negative coverage totally on Rudd’s shoulders.
Surely, a good deal of responsibility should be directed towards Turnbull and the Coalition. Their waltzing around throwing out handgrenades left, right and centre, hinting that there “must’ be terrorists on board these boats and guaranteeing that they have a solution to the “problem”, whatever that can be defined as, (which varies according to the spokesperson) but that they are not prepared to announce it at this time except for the fact that Howard’s policies worked etc, etc, must have been a major contributing factor!
“So tell us fredn what has Tampa got in common with the OV?”
You are of course right.
The Tampa boatpeople went to Nauru. The Oceanic Viking people went to Indonesia.
Clearly a big difference in the navigational direction!
One thing that the Clinton Porteous article that Cuppa linked to demonstrates is that the commentariate hasn’t improved in their prothersising? in regard to support or effect on polls of particular political events. (in this case the budget).
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,21602037-2,00.html
Just a question, has anybody heard of a writer called Ralph Peters, he wrote a book? called The War After Armageddon,it appeared beside an article about Obama in NEWS LTD Sundry Slimes in Perth.
Thanks if anyone can enlighten me
760 – Dio that has nothing to do with Tampa being like the OV, which was my point.
Research is expensive, very expensive.
No-one is going to poll 1150 people 3 times, unless they want to publish the results from 3450 respondents.
Andrew, Newspoll tries to get 1150 people in their sample. Nielsen 1400, and Galaxy when they poll, 1000.
Australia has been getting the canning ever since the Yellow Hordes were supposed to be charging towards the goldfields of Bendigo back in 1850s.
Successive remedies like Stolen Generations, The WAP, Two Wongs, Howard’s too many Asians, Hanson’s Please Explain, the MSM/Shock Jocks demonisation of boat people etc – you gotta ask yourself, can you blame them?
So Dio, are you advocating CI? I reckon that would go down like a lead balloon with the vast majority of Australians.
So Dio, are you advocating CI? – So Dio, are you advocating CI be shut?
BH – The quote was actually that Martin O’Shannessy had been through the sample 3 times, i.e. checking it was a good sample. They did a bunch of things you do when you get a dramatic change. Had the sample come disproprtionately from an area that might bias the sample? Did they have some surveyors who were producing abnormal results?
Ellis has written similar articles attacking Newspoll in the past, always after a bad Newspoll for Labor, never after a good one. I presume he thinks he can damage the reputation of Newspoll as the Labor Party did Saulwick polls in the early 1990s. Those attacks were done by people with more numeric credibility than Bob Ellis.
I’ve had two conversation with Martin O’Shannessy in the last week. In the past I have been into Newspoll’s polling centre and talked through all the things they do to try and get a good poll. They are a thoroughly credible polling company. Some of the headlines given to reports of their polls aren’t always entirely credible, but that’s not Newspoll’s fault.
Why do people pay attention to someone who doesn’t know what Newspoll does but starts from a premise that it must be part of the Murdoch conspiracy to bring down the Whitlam government. Sorry, Rudd government, but some people are still working on the basis of the earlier conspiracy.
John Ryan, good coverage of Ralph Peters in Wiki. He seems like quite a radical. A good read!
[Peters' 1997 article "Constant Conflict"[6] was controversial[citation needed] for this section:
There will be no peace. At any given moment for the rest of our lifetimes, there will be multiple conflicts in mutating forms around the globe. Violent conflict will dominate the headlines, but cultural and economic struggles will be steadier and ultimately more decisive. The de facto role of the US armed forces will be to keep the world safe for our economy and open to our cultural assault. To those ends, we will do a fair amount of killing.
In a 2009 article for The Journal of International Security Affairs titled “Wishful Thinking and Indecisive Wars” [7] Peters’ advocates the ruthless use of United States military power, declaring “If you cannot win clean, win dirty.” Peters’ also raises the controversial possibility of directing the United States military to attack journalists. Peters writes, “Although it seems unthinkable now, future wars may require censorship, news blackouts and, ultimately, military attacks on the partisan media.”]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ralph_Peters
Ruawake at 631 last night
It is quite easy, and quite error prone, to be an arm-chair corporate strategist, but I think FXJ’s strategy has been hopeless for years. The internet is a fundamental change to media, particularly facilitating globalisation. Consider, instead of buying those silly radio stations, they had perhaps looked at the Wall Street Journal? Instead WSJ was acquired by NCP, and the content delivery they are able to make is already evident – both on the internet and in The Australian.
And FXJ was over-leveraged going into a cyclical downturn (did they learn nothing of the 1987/88 Warwick Fairfax experience???). The sad thing about FXJ is that it does not appear to ever rise to meet it potential, opportunity and heritage.
*Maybe* the new Fairfax Digital will be different.
Socrates 739
Very nicely put…I am reading yet another Nixon book at the moment, and gosh, if one were of a certain mind, one could see some parallels…
good luck to them for spending the squillions, that’s the easy part. As nobody has come up yet with a business model that can make money for the MSM content providers.
Their ABC seems to be relying a lot lately on repeating News Ltd coverage which “appears” to be designed to dent Labor’s popularity and enhance the Coalitions.
Classic example is this report on Howard’s revival from a disturbed “slumber”! I don’t know whether or not the author read Tuesday’s Newspoll but to say that Rudd’s approval rating dropped considerably is blatantly “false”!
ABC, you can do “much” better than this. Wasn’t there a 7 point turnaround in the 2PP figures? I can’t remember seeing much change in Rudd’s approval rating!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/08/2736307.htm?section=justin
Scorpio, they must be taking lessons from their old master Howie;)
Rupert takes no prisoners. Adelaide’s Sunday Mail carries attacks on Rudd from such measured critics as Murdoch, Turnbull and Howard (two separate splashes over three pages) plus a Van Onselen appraisal of Labor’s leadership which advances Smith as the heir apparent.
Thanks Antony. To be clear, I’m not part of the Ellis-conspiracy camp, I was just asking for clarification on their methodology. And I agree with you, it has been the REPORTING of the poll not the figures that has been questionable in the past
Poor Obama (even though I prefer Hillary
) he’s not only got Fox and the right wing nut jobs distorting everything he says and does now there’s this!
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/obama-white-power-in-black-face-20091108-i387.html
Vera, he can also be easily accused of “black power in white face”, as he’s half white.
Yes, he cant win.
I still think most people get their politics from the TV News and last night all the main stories were Rudd helping out the asbestos victims and giving James Hardy a blast.
All good for Rudd I reckon.
Finns
He could do a stint on Hey Hey
I’ve added a new polling metric to the Pollytrend data – one that just uses phone polls.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/11/08/new-pollytrend-metric-phone-pollster-trend/
Now you can choose your methodological trend poison.
scorpio I think Rudd approval fell 4% and disapproval rose by the same amount
Thanks Antony – I thought that was what he meant but in a couple of versions on the radio it was less clear.
A good read on the Whitlam/Kerr/Murdoch thing is in Paul Barry’s book about Murdoch. No-one can say Murdoch did not use influence there. He saw it as his right which is fine but 5 years later (Fraser/Howard) we had higher inflation, higher unemployment and a higher deficit if I remember rightly. So was the trauma of that dismissal really worth it?
So today on Insiders I loved it when Piers Akerman said that Rudd was trying to manipulate the Neilsen poll. What does he think his newspapers, Turnbull, Howard and Murdoch have been doing over the last few days?
It sounds as tho the Adelaide Tiser is a good read for the Libs today – no influence on polls? Is there a poll result anywhere for that kind of influence. Must go check Poss’s site.
BH went:
If he did, he would have been talking about the calculations from the raw data rather than hitting the phone banks 3 times. The data would have been calculated after the phones were put down on Sunday. You can’t re-do the entire poll by getting new samples twice on Monday – the manpower required and the cost involved would be, literally, dozens of thousands of dollars.
Andrew went:
They aim for 1150 – their highest since January 2008 has been 1203, the lowest 1120. Here’s a histogram and stats on the Newspoll sample sizes this term.
http://twitpic.com/op4cn
Finns
Agree, but which I think why the NCP focus on business media is good – content is useful for customers to make money (so willing to pay) and usually either (1) the employer pays or (2) the cost is tax deductible.
Poss – thanks but have you got anything on whether bad newspaper articles for either side result in a drop in the polls? Can you link it if you have please?
I haven’t got anything BH, I doubt whether it could ever actually be measured.
However, keep in mind what went on in 2007. What was the election result?
How much influence do you think The Australian actually has on the average voter?
Think about who reads The Oz.
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