Roy Morgan has leapt in with last weekend’s face-to-face polling of 1050 respondents, showing Labor’s lead has actually nudged slightly upwards: from 60.5-39.5 to 61-39. Labor’s primary vote is down one point to 51 per cent, but the Coalition’s is also down two to 32.5 per cent. Contra Newspoll, the Greens are up two to 9.5 per cent.
Other news:
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Julia Gillard hopes to save “soft Left” colleague Laurie Ferguson by moving him to Werriwa, whose member Chris Hayes would have to make do with Macarthur – in turn cutting loose Nick Bleasdale, the candidate from 2007 who appeared lined up for another shot. It appears Hayes will suffer that fate in any case, as it has been agreed Werriwa should go to the Left. However, Anthony Albanese’s “hard Left” wants it to go to Damien Ogden, an LHMU organiser who defeated incumbent Ken McDonnell for preselection in Sutherland Shire Council’s “E” ward before last year’s elections, but ultimately failed to win the seat. Hayes is understandably not keen, and is calling for the matter to be determined by the local branches – as Ferguson did last week when his ambition was to stay on in redrawn Reid at the expense of John Murphy. That appears to be off the table because the seat is reserved for the Right. Importantly, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Prime Minister is also of a mind to throw Ferguson a lifeline.
• VexNews tells of a further brush fire in Macquarie, to be vacated at the election by Bob Debus. According to VexNews, Debus and the hard Left would have the national executive decide the issue in favour of Susan Templeman, principal of Templeman Consulting, who sells herself as “one of the country’s leading media trainers and coaches”. However, local branches favour Debus antagonist Adam Searle, a “soft Left” member whose designs on Debus’s old state seat of Blue Mountains were thwarted by Debus’s recruitment of Phil Koperberg. When Debus agreed to make life easier for the Prime Minister by relinquishing his position in the ministry in June, Glenn Milne in The Australian reported talk he had done so on the condition that he get to choose his successor in Macquarie.
• The Australian reports Warren Entsch will try to win Leichhardt back for the LNP at the next election. Entsch retired before the last election, and Labor demolished the 10.3 per cent margin he had built up with a 14.3 per cent swing. He floated the possibility of running for Cairns or Barron River at the March state election, but thought better of it. Teresa Gambaro, who lost Petrie at the election, plans to nominate for Brisbane, where the redistribution has cut Labor’s margin from 6.8 per cent to 3.8 per cent. UPDATE: AAP has reported Gambaro has indeed been preselected (thanks to LTEP in comments).
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports a preselection challenge from the Right to Philip Ruddock in Berowra has been withdrawn. The identity of the challenger is not offered.
972 Comments
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Truthiness 374
I take it you are familiar with the “self-referential fallacy”?
Scorpio
We’d better tell Jessica Watson. And for sailors and others interested, her blog is excellent as she gets herself (I hope) around the globe. She was sounding a llittle like Bernard Moitessier the other day (first single around the world race), but what would you expect from a 14 year old? As much as I think it’s a bad idea I’d like to think she got back safely.
http://www.youngestround.blogspot.com/
Here in the West under our very own Liberal Govt we have see electricity prices go up by 200% and they are set to rise again next year by 270%,tell me about Liberal Govts Bob.
Then we have the two musketeers Buswell and Barnett,talking about privatizing Mental Health and other Hospital services,I have a dreadful feeling that this was tried before and did not work then,also the lowest paid are still being docked there pay for work to rule,but not the Cops when they did it.
Gas is going up and the place is awash with it,another legacy of the Courts(Liberals)along with other charges cause Barnett does not want to run a deficit,we have a Govt who are intent on handing the police more and more power and the CCC will from what I have read soon have more power than ASIO and less scrutiny.
Mean while we have some nut from NZ wanting to sterilize parents if their kids cause problems,but its all voluntary of course,until another nut with the same idea gets in,all championed by out own Sattler,I think that Commercial radio is getting sillier by the minute,I would listen to the bloke on the ABc but to me hes just wishy washy and not a man of strong opinions.
Jessica is in fact 16 – a veteran in Hornblower’s days I suppose
Jon Stewart was great today.
Matter of fact Stewart was brilliant.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/06/jon-stewart-does-glenn-be_n_348129.html
People still use MySpace?
Buying into MySpace is like buying into AltaVista.
http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20091104/myspaces-work-in-progress-losing-money-traffic-blowing-google-guarantees/
Oh dear, Britany spears is as popular as the Libs if tonight’s Perth Concert is any indication.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,26316762-5005361,00.html
This won’t help Malcolm one bit
http://www.smh.com.au/national/hitler-video-linked-to-battle-for-control-of-liberal-right-20091106-i24p.html
And here is the video in question
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNXKnJ6J4CY
The Big Bootstrap continues…
The Australian quotes Malcolm Turnbull quoting Productivity Commissioner Banks telling us that the Schools Stim is useless… which of course is the campaign that The Australian is running, quoting Malcolm Turnbull. I guess Rudd should have placed more emphasis on Big Infra, except Banksy doesn’t like that too much as it’s likely to be too hasty. Once again we have something for everyone. But there’s more…
Turnbull met someone called Kevin Donnelly, who also reckons the Schools Stim is bunk and has written a book about it.
The only thing The Australian forgets to tell us is that Kevin Donnelly regularly writes rabid wingnut columns on education for… boom-tish… The Australian, who it seems is now quoting its own writer as a sort of independent expert, on a subject dear to its heart. If you can’t quote your own bloke as if you’d never heard of him till now, then you aren’t running a bootstrapper’s bumhole.
Taking into account yesterday’s Lib HQ email epistle, also quoting the Australian quoting Turnbull, quoting The Australian, we can see it’s a small, but very cosy coterie in Rupert Land, making a lot more noise than you’d expect from a very select group of ratbags. Writing books, making speeches, issuing media releases, they’re even running conferences now and – I suspect – dodgy polls… then writing them all up so they can laundered next day as “fresh information”, or a “new angle” or an “eyebrows raised as senior public servant criticises government” article, in time for a new round of circle-jerk bootstrapping and self-referential head-nodding over the weekend (preferably a Newspoll weekend).
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/rudd-wastes-economic-crisis/story-e6frg6nf-1225795200285
All guns are blazing on the Eastern Front:
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-war-gets-personal-for-rudd-20091106-i24u.html
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/rudd-blames-climate-sceptics-for-global-sabotage-20091106-i28m.html
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/rudd-dares-turnbull-on-ets/story-e6frg6nf-1225795202435
Predictable response:
Rudd Shoots Messagers
Bolt will chime in (if he already hasn’t), then Turnbull will quote him, then News will quote them all.
Peter Hartcher writes a column stating that “Rudd’s big test” will be to manage the recovery, as if he (Hartcher) was the the first to stumble upon this novel proposition.
Sheesh.
In a refreshing bout of clear thinking Mike Carlton sees through the maze. Writing about the other shoe-throwing, in Cambridge this week, at Howard, ending with a hilarious paragraph in true Carlton style
His blood’s worth bottling.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/the-boots-on-the-other-foot-now-20091106-i22g.html
No he is taking the line that this is just a diversion from the boat people issue.
Now that is probably ture (to an extent – I don’t know when Rudd had planned to make this speech), but the bigger aspect to this is that it actually is a big issue. The boat people? Really hands up anyone who has been adversly affect by asylum seeekrs – or who knows of anyone what has been?
But climate change and the ETS. That will affect everyone. Rudd wants it to be the issue, and he ain’t the first politician to try and set the agenda.
At least this is an issue that deserves to be on the agenda.
IN fact deserves to be front page.
Bolt and the rest of them think Rudd is like them and can only focus on one thing at a time.
It will be interesting watching the rhubarb ranters ramp the rhetoric.
Fascinatingly, Bolt doesn’t actually mention in his article on Rudd’s speech that he was attacked three times by name.
And he tries some really pathetic red herrings but he’s basically got nothing to say in response.
He mentions some people going on a hunger strike about AGW as proof it’s not him who is holding the world to ransom, and spews the global government conspiracy line again.
Bolt generally has very little to say. He gets a reader to send in some right wing drivel and then asks an inane, irrelevant question without actually committing himself so I’m not surprised he hasn’t responded. He’ll be waiting for one of his more intelligent readers to do it so he can use their words instead.
Round 1 to the Ruddster.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/or_up_to_your_decayed_ankles_in_100_years/
Catsaras agrees with Possum, pretty much. The Labor vote has been rock solid over the last 18 months.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/close-poll-may-be-good-for-labor-discipline/story-e6frg6zo-1225795214168
Diogenes thanks for that. Now our very own concern troll can be less concerned
OH and I watched Spiers interviewing Murdoch on Agenda this am. It was funny watching Murdoch’s face as he hesitantly put his editors on notice as to the weekend’s and their future headlines.
We put his comments in order and waited for the news bulletin. We were spot on -
1. Rudd wants to be rule the world.
2. Rudd is thinskinned. (He did say that but said all other pollies were too – Spiers omitted that bit).
Interestingly he was happy to see interest rates rise because they’ve been too low, but he doesn’t want early movement on CC. Thinks that world leaders are moving too fast on it and sounds more sceptical than he has before.
Likes to have input (and influence) with world leaders – as per usual. Likes lots of immigration. America was built on it. Asylum seekers OK if checked out.
Thinks Hannity is the best thing since sliced bread – intelligent, articulate and no doubt fair and balanced. Beck is opinion – not news,
Worth watching the video because his face is a picture in itself as he makes sure he puts his blokes on notice. Get the impression he does not like Kev.
Vera – they got a young one. Found the paws this am.
Poor old Rupert. He still thinks he’s important. Rudd’s continuing success is a total repudiation of the old style MSM where they made or broke political figures and Governments.
Of course they don’t like it. What you are hearing is the sound of the oldest elephant in the graveyard uttering its death rattle.
BH,
For those who missed it on Agenda and those who don’t have SKY or whatever it is, it can be seen on A-PAC, tomorrow!
http://www.a-pac.tv/
Diogenes,
Oh, dear! It looks like your mate Alex might not be all he portrays himself to be!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/07/2736021.htm
Unfortunately, our loc al media can’t concentrate on more than one boat at a time.
So much for Rupert’s fine bunch of top-line “investigative journalists”!
It’s taken all this time to find this out and that was probably by accident and by a “non-journalist” at that!
They have been too busy trying to unseat Kevin Rudd out of the Lodge to notice what else is going on in the world!
@ 393
It is good news for Geodynamics. I do like people getting electricity off their hot rocks.
Heard him on RN this am – didn’t really deny anything but said he wouldn’t comment. I thought he originally said that his English was good because he’d worked in a call centre in India or was it Sri Lanka.
Puts a whole new light on this bloke keeping the poor devils on that boat for so long.
It looks like the Greens, Steve Fielding and Mr X are a bit peeved that they missed out on being included in Kevin Rudd’s “crusade” against the sceptics and deniers!
[Crossbench Senators say they are not impressed by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's attack on those who oppose his climate change policy.
Mr Rudd on Friday launched an invective towards climate change deniers and said it was political cowardice to delay passing the emissions trading scheme until after talks in Copenhagen.
"The clock is ticking for the planet, but the climate change sceptics simply do not care," he said.
But Family First Senator Steve Fielding disagrees, saying it is economically reckless to do anything before Copenhagen.
"[It's] another one of Kevin Rudd’s hissy fits and he’s in a mode of panic,” he said.
Mr Rudd also attacked so-called climate change sceptics who he says are holding the world to ransom.
Greens leader Bob Brown, however, says that is hypocritical and if Mr Rudd was serious acting on climate change, he should push for bigger cuts to emissions.
“The emperor’s got no clothes. He himself is captured by the people in the sceptics’ camp,” he said.
Meanwhile, Independent Senator Nick Xenophon also says Mr Rudd should put forward bigger cuts and release Treasury modelling on variations to the scheme. ]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/07/2736065.htm
Meanwhile the “get Della Bosca campaign” goes on in earnest after earlier revelations that Della Bosca was making moves on the Labor leadership in NSW!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/06/2735847.htm
I was disappointed with Bob Brown’s reaction to Kev’s speech. He’s playing politics himself. He should just agree re the sceptics and say he’ll be negotiating to get higher targets. Belittling Rudd is not the way to go.
TP – the penny dropped with that. Of course, the ABC spreading is the big news this week so Murdoch is pulling out all stops. He’ll need a Lib Govt. next year to counteract the ABC so Labor is in for a 12 month blast by the look of the past week. Oakes, too, is probably trying to save his own job by going in harder.
Brown, X and Fielding are probably getting worried themselves now.
If they side with the Coalition again and block the ETS for a second time their credibility will be shot to shite, if it isn’t allready.
So the only way to protect themselves is to join the media and Colaition in bagging Rudd.
Brown is as jealous as, he hates Rudd and Garrett for making his nutjob party irrelevant
He has sulky rants at Kev and Pete every chance he gets. I hope Rudd goes after him and the other pair of Lib stooges big time when they vote doen the ETS.
Let the people know it’s not just Malcolm’s lot stopping it.
BH sad about the kanga. We’ve lived next to a farm for 10 yrs and saw a pair of them for the first time a couple of months ago but last week the rednecks were out chasing the poor things around the paddocks shooting at them. Don’t know if they got them as they went into the bush down near the creek.
If I’d had a bazooka I would have blown up their ute!
Thinking of selling up again now.
Rudd’s climate change “attack” sounds like a distraction from his failings on border protection and the Oceanic Viking. Everyone remember the Oceanic Viking? YEP, it’s still sitting there, hijacked by 78 Asylum Seekers. Why can’t our “hardline” government… I dunno… TELL them to get off OUR boat?!
“Here in the West under our very own Liberal Govt we have see electricity prices go up by 200% and they are set to rise again next year by 270%,tell me about Liberal Govts Bob.”
You should try Queensland under our very own Labor Govt. We had Blight re-elected and the next month she announces a 30% increase in Rego, but to put icing on the cake she also did the double whammy of dropping the roughly 9 cents a litre fuel subsidy.
Apparantly she forgot to tell Queenslanders this before the election.
Not to worry though, she will be on the unemployment line come next election. Queenslanders don’t take too kindly to being taken for mugs.
Vera – I’m with you about the rednecks. They’re no longer around here with their guns because the properties are being subdivided into smaller holdings. But there is a pack of dingo/cross dogs so we need Timmy up here – our dog can get the rats but Timmy could wreck havoc among the dogs. Must ask BB how much an old bugger of a cat is worth to hire.
I’ve somehow been getting emails from Green Senators. Is anyone else getting them?
Good news, bet Howard wouldn’t have done this.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/07/2736010.htm
Vera, I can see a bunch of Greens getting on here and defending their patch after your post. Wait for it.
This sounds like a Republican the conservatives here could listen to. She agrees with the PM about absurd bonuses for the deviate merchant bankers
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rep-jan-schakowsky/my-conversation-with-gold_b_348178.html
Gary
I’m off to have a few bets shortly so I may have a nice surprise awaiting me when I check in later !
LOL, I can take it
This should be fun! I’d really enjoy sitting back and watching a “flame war” between the Greens and Nats on the internet.
Pass the popcorn!
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/rudd-dares-turnbull-on-ets/story-e6frg6nf-1225795202435
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Pollchart-tpp-event.svg
If we take a look at this graph we can see that Morgan Polling was 8%+ Labor Bias for a majority of the year.
Yet a few days before the election, they come back up to near a 50-50 split…. how convenient(maybe Morgan was humiliated by the Latham will win polls of 2004 he decided to “fix” it right before the 2007 election rather than suffering another humiliating defeat).
So the question is, is Morgan still 8%+ Labor out? And why has Morgan not done anything to fix their methodology? It’s been like this for 10 years now.
scorpio
That’s very funny!
Hands up you Nat warriors for Barnaby who have hit this blog site on command. …. Come on, out with you. Go ahead, sink the proposal. Sink it now. Do it, damn you. Faster.
Kevin Rudd is “goooone” according to Andrew Bolt. Now that the “Boss” has decided to take to him, Rudd is certainly finished now! And just to hit the last nail into the coffin, Laurie Oakes has cut Rudd loose too!
It’s all over bar the shouting, now, it seems!
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/murdoch_disses_rudd/
And the cheer squad goes into an ecstatic rapture!
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/murdoch_disses_rudd/
Ah, shouldn’t have done it Scorpio but I looked at that link. A lot of salivating going on over there.
Come-on Bludgers, where are you? Some of you must have something to say!
It’s a bit boring reading my own posts!
Sorry, BH, Tim’s retired. He only keeps whacking the house dogs here for the kick he gets from inflicting random violence. The way their ears go flat when he’s around (sometimes a tail is tucked in, too) is a hilarious sight. And their walk is very much: “See? I’m no harm. I’m walking slowly. I am NOT catching your eye. I am twelve feet from you. Please do not misinterpret my actions as aggression. Thank you, Your Excellency, in advance, for your mercy.”
As a working cat, Tim’s days of glory are over, but as a hobbyist, he still tinkers from time to time. The way he keeps up in line is by threatening to go all “Alzheimer’s Cat” and do a crap in the middle of the loungeroom floor, pleading senility. We had six weeks of this until we figured out he needed a cat potty, so we bought him a De-Luxe Edition Cat-2000 with a roof, even.
He used to live half his life in that thing, arranging and rearranging everything to perfection. Then suddenly he stopped using it and went back out to the garden again. It took us another two months to figure out which stuff to put in it (Breeder’s Choice, for those interested, lasts 10 times as long as simple cat clay).
But even now that things have settled back to something resembling normal order, the training remains, ours that is: if he goes into a corner and lets out one of his special banshee howls we jump like scalded monkies to get him outside. In a way we have been conditioned by Timmy as much as the dogs have been.
Not a bad result for a two-month old, starving, terrified kitten, as wild as
Laurie Ferguson’s hair, who came to us in the pouring rain at our (then) cliff-top house in Dover Heights with literally nowhere else to go. Either we gave him a home or it was, “Goodbye Cruel World” for Tim. This was 1994.
What did the trick was his uncanny resemblance to Tom, my previous favourite cat and boon companion, who had just died of old age at 17. They were both black on top with a white belly and a Lone Ranger mask on their faces. I still wonder whether there wasn’t some kind of collusion involved there, between Tom and Tim, in that mysterious universe only cats inhabit, between lives. He was Tom reincarnated, at least in looks. Seeing as you could tie Tom in knots, chuck him over your shoulder and wear him like a fur stole, and otherwise do whatever you wanted with him (and he’d still go to sleep) and that Tim would hiss at us if we even looked at him for the first five years (but remained mute in the meowing department until 8 years old), there the resemblance ends.
Now we can’t shut him up. He sleeps in a proper cat basket. Has used an official cat potty. And he sits next to his bowl when he’s hungry, regulation cat style. He even puts up with the grandkids. Last visit Tim let them pick him up and pat them.
It’s taken 15 years, but Tim has mellowed at last. The only thing he won’t abide is a dog but, nowadays, only small dogs, which (unfortunately for them) my two dogs happen to be. Equally unfortunately (for the rest of the cats in the neighbourhood) my dogs seek constant revenge upon the rest of the feline species, to compensate for their humiliation at the hands of one of their kind. No cat is safe dozing off under any rose bush for miles around Beecroft when Bob and Cozzie are out on their walk.
In fact, nothing on four legs is safe, especially from Bob. He’d go for your pack of wild dogs like an Exocet missle, with hardly a second thought except “Hurrah!” That he’d be unlikely to last more than three seconds is neither here nor there. For Bob it would be a sure entry to Dog Valhalla, worth every one of the two or three nips to the balls he got in before the Big Crunch came and “Lights Out”.
BH,
Thank goodness you’re around. I thought that all the world had come to an end except here! I think this bit demonstrates that “salivating” that you mention!
An understatement, I am sure!
Andrew Bartlett is apparently standing for the Greens in Qld
Must have been listening to Hockey
possum
You’re quick! I can’t even see anything on his blog about it. Any more details as to where, what and when??
Presumably Bartlett would be going for the Senate again. What are his chances?
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