At last, a second poll to back the notion that Labor has taken a hit in recent weeks. The latest Roy Morgan face-to-face survey has Labor’s lead at 56-44: healthy enough in absolute terms, but down from 61-39 last week and 60.5-39.5 at the previous regular fortnightly survey. Labor is down 4.5 per cent on the primary vote while the Coalition is up 3.5 per cent (CORRECTION: up 6 per cent) to 38.5 per cent. The Greens are down 1.5 per cent to 8 per cent; not sure where the remainder went. The normal Morgan poll release is not available yet, but it can be assumed that this is based on last weekend’s polling of a sample of about 1000. The numbers can be seen on Morgan’s Poll Trends page. Thanks to sharp-eyed/well-informed readers for pointing this out.
UPDATE: Morgan’s poll release informs us that this is one of those occasions where Morgan also unloads a mid-week poll conducted on the back of an unrelated survey. This one has Labor’s lead at just 52-48 – but the sample is only 573. The sample size of the face-to-face poll turns out to have been 874.
UPDATE 2: Jamie Walker and Lenore Taylor of The Weekend Australian inform us of a Newspoll survey of 1847 voters conducted this week across six Queensland marginal seats: “the Brisbane-based Liberal seats of Bowman and Dickson, Labor-held Longman to the north of the capital, Flynn and Dawson in central Queensland, also with the ALP, and the Liberal electorate of Herbert, centred on Townsville”. What we really need here is a table, but between them the reports inform us that:
• Support for Labor “has lifted 2.9 per cent since Mr Rudd was elected two years ago, against 6.2 per cent Australia-wide”.
• Two-party support for Labor in Dawson in Flynn has increased almost 3 per cent since the election, despite hostility in those electorates towards emissions trading.
• Satisfaction with Kevin Rudd’s performance as Prime Minister ranged between 46 per cent in Flynn and 61 per cent in Herbert, and averaged 54 per cent.
• “Mr Turnbull’s best results were in Bowman, in Brisbane’s east, and Herbert, where he scored 38 per cent approval; his worst was 27 per cent in Longman, lost to Labor at the last election by former Howard government minister Mal Brough. Satisfaction with the Opposition Leader averaged out at 34 per cent.”
• Preferred prime minister reflected the national situation, with Rudd leading 63-22.
• Overall, “only 26 per cent of voters across the electorates like what (Rudd) is doing with Telstra, only 27 per cent think he is doing a good job with asylum-seekers and 56 per cent think he’s being too soft on them”; however, “sixty-one per cent of voters in the six electorates thought Labor was doing a good job in handling interest rates”.
Other news:
• The Mercury reports former state Labor MP Kathryn Hay has pulled out of her comeback bid in Bass citing health problems. However, her media statement has made a point of telling us she “did not rule out” standing for Labor again, prompting suggestions she might yet seek to replace Jodie Campbell in the federal seat. Alison Andrews of the Launceston Examiner says Hay’s exit “provides the opportunity for newly elected Launceston City Council alderman Rob Soward to rethink trying for state politics”, after he failed to win one of the six positions in the recent preselection vote. For what it’s worth, a commenter on the Mercury article said he had it “on very good authority that Lisa Singh is also looking to jump the sinking Bartlett ship with an eye on Duncan Kerr’s Federal Denison seat”.
• Peter van Onselen in The Australian reports that Labor’s preselection politburo wishes to install social worker Louise Durack as its candidate against Liberal front-bencher Michael Keenan in the Perth seat of Stirling, which has a notional margin of 1.3 per cent after minor redistribution adjustments. Durack failed to carry the highly marginal new seat of Ocean Reef at the September 2008 state election. Another aspirant, Balcatta Senior High School chairwoman Janet Pettigrew, is reportedly being pressured to withdraw.
• James Massola of the Canberra Times reports the ACT Greens are likely to preselect Sue Ellerman for Canberra and Indra Esguerra for Fraser on Monday, but the more interesting question of their Senate candidate will not be resolved for a few more weeks.
• George Megalogenis of The Australian observes that “safe Liberal electorates have borne the brunt of the Rudd government’s clampdown on family payments”. All of the 15 electorates identified as most heavily affected are Liberal seats, including Wentworth, Curtin, North Sydney and Warringah.
• Andrew Crook of Crikey reports the Prime Minister is weighing up whether to stick with Belinda Neal in Robertson or “install a political cleanskin untainted by the saga surrounding the notorious events at Iguana Joe’s”. The opinion of local branch members is unlikely to have much to do with it.
1,553 Comments
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East? Palau is about as dead north of Australia as you can get…
Finns
The Uighurs are from Gitmo.
What can you say? They lock em up with no trial, refuse to send them home when they have nothing on them after 5 years and refuse to relocate them in the US. And sign a law to that effect.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/04/2733055.htm?section=justin
Well, don’t blame Obama. He’s just trying to make the best out of the mess he was left.
“Home” – ie China – is the last place the Uighurs want to go. They’ll hang out in Palau until the heat dies down and then they’ll be quietly be relocated to Taiwan.
Taiwan is not that stupid. It got bigger fish to fry.
Psephos
Quite a few of the Gitmo inmates want to go home wherever that is. I don’t know about the Uighurs.
Willingly?
That depends on where home is. I doubt Saudi Arabia, Egypt or Jordan want their jihadis back, or if they do it’ll only be to kill them.
Why not? They speak Chinese, and Taiwan is much preferable to Palau as a place to live.
The source is probably his wife, who works for Crosby/Textor, the Liberal pollsters.
Obviously News Ltd is now waging open warfare against Rudd, all their pretensions of impartiality have been blown out of the water.
I wonder what sort of deal Turnball has done with Murdoch?
Why would Taiwan take 13 Uighurs and jeopadise her relationships with the Mainland. they wouldnt dare. Just because they speak chinese? Laughable.
Obviously faustian
Diogenes@706
The Chinese government deemed these inmates to be members of the separatist “Eastern Turkestan” movment, which have also been declared a terrorist organisation by the US and the UN. A bleak (to put it mildly) future awaits them should they be repatriated to China. So Psephos was right, going home is perhaps the last thing these inmates want.
However, I have doubt about their ability to speak Chinese. As Finnigans pointed out, it is virtually impossible for the current Taiwan government to accept these inmates, given the current thawing of the trans-strait relationship. The Chinese government is vehemently against the relocation.
I saw Turnball ranting and raving on ABC News tonight, and I just had to change channels!
The Liberals will probably be insensitive enough to ruin the apology to the instituionalised children on Monday by launching another censure motion against the PM.
Finnigans@709
The only possibility I can see is when the pro-independence DPP gets into power again, it may take the Uighurs just to annoy the Chinese government. Even that is a long shot though.
Considering the majority of wayga’s (sic) are genghis khan’s descendants,the ethnic chinese would be less disposed to them, than say a westerner.
Tahiti looks nice
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/6567670/Barack-Obama-bows-and-talks-of-green-tea-icecream-as-he-pushes-US-ties-in-Asia.html
Woah
The pugs are going to be real upset by obama’s kow-tow.
well that article reinforced in my mind that Glenn Milne is a complete tool, so I guess he’s on to somthing.
Finns, as you yourself have pointed out before, Asian countries have a knack for making things happen and not happen simultaneously. The Uighurs will not be officially be relocated to Taiwan, but one day they’ll just happen to be there, which everyone will decide not to notice. Xinjiang is after all part of the Republic of China, so they have a perfect right to be there. This is no more mysterious than Vice-President Lien having friendly talks with the head of the Peiping Communist bandit regime, while at the same time not for a moment conceding his or its existence.
Gusface@714
Genghis Khan was a Mongolian, not exactly related to Uighurs. Having said that they do say that every Chinese today has a bit of his genes in them, and we consider him to be a Chinese, and his life a part of Chinese history.
Uighurs are also ethnic Chinese too, not just the dominant Han people which I presume is what you referred to. In fact, there are 56 ethnic groups in China. There is no disposition to like and dislike any of the ethnic groups, at least until the regrettable riot in Xingjiang not long ago.
Robot, the last champion of the pro-independence Chen Sui Bian really gave democracy and pro-independencea a bad name. he and his whole family were so corrupt, all of them are now on trial. It wont be long before “One country 3 Systems”. The KMT is begging for it.
The honeymoon has been over since November 24,2007, according to the wise sages of the media! Let’s be honest, these people have never given Rudd a chance.
From the start of the government’s tenure in office, the media coverage has been negative and in comparison always favourable to the Liberal Party.
Mine is a fat waste of space and a known Coalition sympathiser!
Psephos:
There is nothing to be gained by the current Taiwan government to accept the Uighurs. If in the future DPP rules Taiwan and agrees to accept the inmates it will make sure everyone and his dog knows about it.
ummm
robot as a dumb whitey, my apols,but from what i have read etc the wayga’s have an inherent gentic strain that relates back to the khan.
from my understanding 28 million people (the majority of which are wayga (sic) muslims) claim direct genentic descent.
correctly you identify that he was neither han or native chiney, as you full well know the horde dominated not just the asiatics,but the semites and to a lesser extent the caucasian.
modern wayga’s in no shape or form consider themselves “chinese” but like the tibetans, once ruled the wily orientals.
China merely seeks to redress the loss of face by both the “mongol” and the “tibetan”
Ahh. Only 10 more sleeps until the anniversary of *howard out* day
Yippee !
The media want their government funded advertising revenue back – it’s that simple. As Rudd won’t give it to them they will destroy him and demand it from the Liberal party who will of course happily sign a blank cheque just as they did under Howard.
Finnigans@719
Hard to judge. There is still considerable resistance (about 30-40%) to any form of unification in Taiwan with many undecided. In some parts of Taiwan Chen is still regarded as a hero and his corruption dismissed as character assassination motivated by politics. Indeed, in these areas bashing the mainland seems to be a prerequisite to holding office. KMT did not do too well in the recent local elections either.
I’m expecting any day now that Turnball will suddenly come out and say, “I was wrong, mankind isn’t responsible for climate change”
Don’t be surprised if he does another massive backflip, to get the far right on board!
Gus, everyone is related to the Great Khan from Kamikaze to Barcelona.
Btw: they are calling Obi – Oba Mao – in China. More present for Faxtel.
Plus big business wants to continue its gouging and “profit motive” without the hindrance of government control and oversight.
Robot is quite correct to say that in modern Chinese usage “Chinese” does not mean the same thing as “Han Chinese.” Tibetans, Uighurs, Manchu and (Inner) Mongolians are Chinese, just as the Han are Chinese. This is the view in the Republic of China as well as in the Peiping communist bandit regime. So the Uighurs in Palau are Chinese, and therefore they are citizens of the Republic of China. By a strange coincidence, Palau maintains diplomatic relations with the RoC rather than with the bandits in Peiping, so these RoC citizens can walk into the RoC embassy in Kotor anytime and claim their rights. They won’t do it for a while, but the Chinese are noted for taking the long view.
Gusface:
No need to apologise and I am sure you are not dumb. As a Han I would like to think that all ethnic groups regard themselves Chinese. I would not go as far as you did. I do acknowledge, however, that a proportion of the minority ethnic groups may not. Let’s see if this sentiment will remain as time progresses and as China develops and matures as a nation.
Should he have bowed to the chrysathenum throne?
Obi’s second black mark
Another laughable notion. ROC (read Chen Sui Bian) was so desperate of diplomatic relationships, he went and bought up all the tin pot republics in the South Pacific. The Peiping communist bandit regime just said “be my guest”.
is in Japan.
Perhaps china should look to the EU, as a model of its future composition.
28 distinct ethnic groups/cultures suggest diversity as opposed to a pax asiatic
Turnbull rebuts Fraser’s red-neck claims
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/14/2742926.htm?section=justin
Of course turnbull would.
The australian msm has nothing to be proud of in the current AS matter.
Redneck media lead by their abc. Irresponsible. Unforgiveable. Aunty the whore.
Der pseph – see @715
Obi bows to japanese emperor
Gus, he has, in Toyko. Thankfully, The Peiping communist bandit regime has got rid of the Son of Heaven from the Gate of the Heavenly Peace.
would mao have bowed?
669
I feel sorry for you.
So you still want a House of Assembly then?
That’s not really how it is. Taipei and Peiping have been conducting a bidding war with these countries, as in Central America, for a long time, long before Chen took office. They both shamelessly bribe politicians and journalists, and also hand out “aid” money very irresponsibly. It’s extremely corrupting in small places like Vanuatu, and they both ought to stop it. But it’s handy for the RoC to have some friends at the UN, who can move motions for them etc, and it also helps maintain their sense that they are a real country if they have some real embassies in Taipei.
I expect little from News Ltd, but the ABC has disappointed me greatly. Mark Scott is a member of the Liberal Party – I guess that speaks volumes for their present stance.
Gusface@734
Nice idea but perhaps would not work. Unlike EU where several countries with roughly equal economic/political power are involved, Han is simply too dominant in China.
Ah, I see.
In Peiping he will have to knock his head on the paving stones nine times, which won’t look good on Fox News.
Bastard
just spilt me brandy
732
Chequebook diplomacy has been a mainstay of the RoC for decades. The PRC have started it too.
Evan is this correct ??
Arent the anglo-celt dominant in the EU?
747
The people of the British Isles are not dominant on the mainland.
Much of the media is crap and they know they are, they also know they don’t care as their instructions are to oust Rudd and return the Liberal party billions to their income stream.
hence the rider CELT
pps the angles, saxons,burgundians,etc are essentially ANGLO for convential use
cf the grandmother of europe
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