The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead steady on 55-45 after the previous week’s sharp drop from 59-41. Further questions probe “firmness of vote” (slightly stronger among Coalition voters); satisfaction with Labor and Coalition positions on asylum seekers, climate change, the economy and things in general; relative impact thereof in determining vote choice; and party with which respondents most closely identify (37 per cent Labor, 31 per cent Coalition).
Other news:
• The Mike Rann situation is sufficiently volatile that alternative leadership scenarios are being discussed. Writing in Crikey, Hendrik Gout of Adelaide’s Independent Weekly indicates Treasurer and Deputy Premier Kevin Foley may have ruled himself out with his recent revelations of personal problems: a deal between Left and Right could instead see the job go to Patrick Conlon of the Left.
• George Megalogenis of The Australian probes recent Newspoll data for trends since the start of the Oceanic Viking saga:
In the three Newspolls that followed, Rudd shed a little more skin each time. By last weekend, the score was 56 per cent to 34 per cent. In other words, his net rating—the gap between those who like and loathe him—had almost halved from plus 43 per cent to plus 22 per cent. Scary stuff until you consider the unpublished splits for Labor and Coalition voters. Rudd’s net rating among Labor voters has barely moved. It was plus 84 per cent six weeks ago, now it is plus 81 per cent. All the loathing has been on the Coalition side. His net rating among those who were already voting Liberal or National was minus 13 per cent six weeks ago; now it is minus 38 per cent. Incidentally, Greens voters are also down on Rudd, with his net rating crashing from plus 60 per cent to plus 18 per cent in the same period. This isn’t the first time Rudd has antagonised people other than Labor voters. The same ripple of disrespect was detected after Labor’s first two budgets, in May last year and again this year. He arouses the enemy when he is forced to defend a specific policy.
• A Galaxy poll commissioned by the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry finds “nearly six in 10” respondents believe an emissions trading scheme would cost jobs and force up electricity prices, and 54 per cent believe legislation should be delayed until after Copenhagen.
• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the Right is expected to throw its weight behind Adam Searle, Blue Mountains mayor and member of the “soft Left”, in the battle to succeed the retiring Bob Debus in his federal seat of Macquarie. Debus and the hard Left want the seat to go to Susan Templeman, with Debus in particular having a long record of conflict with Searle.
• Salusinszky also reports state party secretary and rising Left figure Luke Foley has denied suggestions he might seek to fill a casual vacancy created by the expected departure of the Right’s Henry Tsang from the state upper house later this year. The Right would have the seat go to Shaoquett Moselmane, a Rockdale councillor and Lebanese community leader who has in the past sought to unseat Frank Sartor from Rockdale.
• The NSW Liberals have eyebrow-raisingly preselected Chris Spence, former One Nation candidate and president of its national youth wing, in the highly winnable state seat of The Entrance. Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Spence worked for David Oldfield in his time as a state MP, and is currently a staffer to Terrigal MP Chris Hartcher. Spence also took statutory declarations in his capacity as a justice of the peace from Iguanas staff who complained about John Della Bosca and Belinda Neal. He describes his past involvement with One Nation as “a mistake”.
• The ABC further reports local mayor Chris Holstein, who ran unsuccessfully in 2007, has been endorsed as the Liberal candidate for Gosford.
• The ABC reports four candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection in Bennelong, with Steven Foley and Melanie Matthewson joining the previously discussed John Alexander and Mark Chan.
• The Manly Daily reports Bronwyn Bishop has not been opposed for preselection in Mackellar.
4,201 Comments
William,
Have you read Inside Cover ?
No, and I’m unable to get hold of a copy at this time. What gives?
[No, and I’m unable to get hold of a copy at this time. What gives?
It involves the willagee thread and a certain mp3
Oh and according to Peter Kennedy The Nationals have preselected John McCourt to lead their WA Senate Ticket.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2009/11/23/2750424.htm
The wife:
The husband:
The mother :
http://www.vexnews.com/news/7399/no-idea-what-michelle-chantelois-is-willing-to-do-for-200000/
http://www.vexnews.com/news/7394/unfaithful-barmaid-bimbo-accuses-premier-but-did-she-lie-for-loot-and-does-it-matter-anyway/
Deja vu? Sounds familiar? Family affair? The boy in the balloon.
The children: “We did it for a show”.
SNIP: Legally dangerous comment deleted – The Management.
George Megalagonis’ analysis suggests that the electorate has done what poll bludger has done in recent weeks – become more polarised. Once again, another good analysis from George. After the events of this week, one way or the other, I suspect the electorate will start shifting back the other way again, as coalition supporters are reminded of what they have left in parliament.
As for Copenhagen, it is headed towards CopenOut as I feared. This will lead to genuine efforts to give the illusion of reaching a meaningful agreement. Peter Hartcher sums it up well:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/disagreeable-truth-about-the-coming-copenhagen-charade-20091123-ixhn.html
Yes, I was wondering why the SA libs weren’t making political capital of this.
They have refused comment, maybe because they got burnt by the fake scientology docs. But the issue of whether Rann lied is serious and should be one the libs would pursue unless they have strong doubts about the veracity of the woman’s claims.
Today is the second anniversary of the defeat of the Howard government.
However labor supporters should refrain from celebrating and gloating over the victory as there also people who lost a lot from that election and our thoughts should be with them.
Jannette lost her lovely harbour views from Kirribilli house, John lost access to the Kirribilli wine cellar as well as his seat. Abbott, Downer, Hockey et al suffered a tremendous drop in wages from a ministers pay plus extras to a lowly backbencher salary. The liberal parrotts in the MM lost credibility and access to government thinking.
Let our thoughts be with them on this day.
Should be a very interesting day / week – sounds as if Labor will give the Liberals the majority of what they want with Chainsaw just saying he is happy with the deal. Turnbull will win in the party room, the debate in the senate will be interesting with the Nats / Greens / Independents – well at least Fielding / and a few Liberals voting against with some abstaining – Labor and the rest voting for which means it will get through.
Overall, we end up with a pretty ordinary ETS which over compensates and doesn’t cut enough – it’s pretty pathetic but I guess the argument that something is better than nothing kind of works although only just. The scheme has to hurt people so that they change their ways, from all accounts so far – this scheme won’t.
Greens should be able to capitalise on it at the next election and will hopefully get the balance of power in their own right so that they can horse trade and make some changes.
As to the Libs – divided they fall
Bring on the Australian Sex Party
And Glen Milne lost his dream of being Cossie’s presser.
Even with the balance of power the Greens will be unable to make substantial changes because no Government will agree to anything so politically difficult. Today will almost certainly see us locked into failure on climate change action. I don’t think this bothers the Government however.
The bill puts in a place a carbon pricing mechanism, which is all that matters for now. The rest is just money. If there is a global agreement, we will all be back in a couple of years to amend the bill to tighten the screws on the emitters. If there is no global agreement it doesn’t matter what Australia does.
Psephos
Is it going to pass or be delayed?
I know someone who works closely with the Premier and she told me if something was going on – particuarly in his office – then they would have known about it. You can’t have sex in an office that people are walking in and out of at all hours of the day or night and not get caught. She also said the door has never been locked when he has been in there, so that discounted another of my theories.
I’m beginning to have my doubts about this woman’s story now. It sort of made sense when I heard it the first time, but her own behaviour over the past couple of days has made me doubt her, then I talked to my friend and am further convinced that it isn’t all it seems to be.
The story about the husband also makes sense given what has been said and done recently.
I think it will pass, as I’ve been saying all year, although I’ve had doubts these last couple of months.
Now THIS is defamation.
Word round Adelaide? Some dodgy website as the news source? Please.
I heard down at the pub just now that Santa Clause and the Easter Bunny were having an affair.
There’s a word for people who are at the pub at 9.30 in the morning.
Why arent you out in your tinnie defending our shores!
Surely you dont want to be overun by da hordes
It’s never too early for a beer up here.
Jerry, Jerry, Jerry- is my comment on the Rann thing
ETS will pass, but the coalition will be a mess
TRU energy have taken out full page ads on the end of the world for Vics under CPRS- I say to everyone here swap electricity suppliers, pass it on, that will show them. I think my parents are with TRU….Origin will be the winners
Castle – you’ve just made me weep. I wish I’d thought of all this sadness before I voted. How will I cope now!! rofl.
Oh to be a fly on the wall at the Coalition Party Room meeting this morning!
I imagine that Rudd will have a plant in there, he always seems to have something in QT to embarrass the Opposition with.
I’ve been in a Premier’s office for a supposedly private meeting.
For a start, there was a staffer there at all times.
Secondly, there was a fairly constant stream of people going in and out – not so much as a knock or a head round the door. A door locked for more than 30 seconds would cause comment.
Thirdly, huge amount of floor space. No need to move furniture around. And nice couches, so who’d use a desk?
Have you noticed…every time truthy comes on this blog, a new boat is intercepted?
It’s because he has left his post.
menage a trois?
everyone was into it?
Rann looked convincing to me! I’m thinking more and more that this is a scam dreamed up by the woman and her nasty husband!
In comparison I could tell Clinton was telling porky pies when he initially denied the affair with Lewinsky.
For some reason this gave me a laugh.
I can see the T-shirts now: I had Sex with Mike Rann
Is that why it took him a week to deny the claims?
Castle I actually felt sorry for Howard’s humiliation on election night. What a way to end a political career……but I don’t now, I see him as the P#$%k that he is..
You can get a R rated spoof of the Elliott Spitzer scandal! I noticed this on a certain adult related site!
“Rann looked convincing to me! I’m thinking more and more that this is a scam dreamed up by the woman and her nasty husband!
In comparison I could tell Clinton was telling porky pies when he initially denied the affair with Lewinsky.”
If memory serves, Clinton didn’t threaten/take legal action over his scandal because he knew it was all true. The more I read of her claims, the more rediculous they sound.
The husband is in it up to his eyeballs….cue the statement asking for apology…they should seize it and ink date it if they can
While we wait for the Coalition Party Room decision, this article may shed some light on why McFarlane is committed to negotiating a CC deal which includes Carbon offsets (Qld gov policy) “green” farming/ land management (though the project nominated is not in his electorate). Offset industry waiting on change Sorry, couldn’t find a MSM article on “green farming”, or carbon offsets etc in the New England area.
A recent shift in voting in rural-urban seats with significant ed (inc. HE) & rural-industry research (uni & other) has been to “progressive conservatism” – an oxymoron, I know; but not if deconstructed: progressive approaches to the industry and landcare; but socially conservative. Economic Darwinism & 2 decades of drought have just about stripped the Tablelands areas of SEQ & NEngland of less savvy farmers & amalgamated many in marginal areas into big conglomerates. Howard’s attitude to The Bush & to rail/road/etc infrastructure on which rural industries depend cost the Coalition several such seats, usually to Independents. I McF still holds his for the Libs, but by a decreasing margin.
Though it might’ve been lost to urbanites, such CC initiatives as carbon credits & trading, windfarms, “selling back to the grid”, and “green farming” are BBQ-stoppers in progressive rural areas like NE-DD and, since good farmers are internet-savvy (what else is there to do after sunset but switch on TV/ Internet), references to such OS (esp UK & European) initiatives are frequent. I wonder if I McF nearly choked on his cuppa when some of his colleagues came out with the Australia shouldn’t go it alonememe.
Ozpol
Good points there.
Bill Heffernan was here last week (NSW central coast)and addressed the lib faithful which went down a treat so Ive heard, and did a radio grab for the local abc.
He basically didnt support the idea outright of CC but was not a denier. I was quite surprised as he has seemed to be a bit of a dinosaur and quite regressive,he incidentally supported ,obliquely,the NFF stance
His weight in the senate may sway some waverers but his being so quiet is interesting.
sorry
TWO weeks ago
I did not feel sorry for Howard on election night. No-one made him become a politician. He had a very good run – 33 years an MP, 19 years a minister, 11 years as PM. He alone decided to stay and fight another election when it was in his party’s interest that he retire. Hubris —> Nemesis.
A shiftworker?
Howard’s concession speech was dignified, so was Rudd’s victory speech!
I was just so pleased to see the Rodent lose that I was a little charitable to him that evening!
I hope everyone has voted in this poll. My vote goes to Kevin.
http://www.smh.com.au/polls/national/form.html
Gary: Where was the “None of them” option in that poll?
Turnball is currently winning by a landslide, not that he should take any comfort from that, it’s just that he’s the least worst option.
GB – so did I. norty, I know but those silly polls need to be treated as such.
Of course I voted for the most important Kevin 2 years ago today and it still feels sweet.
I guess that Chantelois’s past will now be the subject for some intense trawling:
why did she leave the US?
did she ever work in the escort business?
what do her old school friends have to say?
what do her ex co workers have to say?
has she ever filed a false insurance claim?
has she ever operated a failed business?
what do current and previous neighbours have to say?
Just some of the questions that rival TV shows will be asking and researching. For her sake she had better have lived the life of a nun – up to her ‘indiscretion’. From what I’ve seen so far she looks and sounds like a fantasist.
Jerry, Jerry, Jerry,…..Andrews Andrews Andrews (I’m in a chanting mood)
How about this from Dr Jensen?
Except making the same demands of the climate scientists. 90% certainty is not enough regarding the reasons for the warming of the planet. Only 100% would suffice, it would seem.
42 Steve K – And the husband.
Steve K – I heard Ms Chantelois on ABC this am saying that she now wants all this to stop to protect her family. What the heck!! What did she expect. Those few little words make it all sound more suss.
Not just TV shows. Lawyers too will be trawling through her background with a fine toothed comb taped to an election microscope.
Bolt was on radio this morning making a big deal about the e-mails. Apparently he will have more revelations in his column tomorrow. Can’t wait – not.
Schieffer Brains has pulled out of the Texas gubernatorial race:
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/latestnews/stories/112309dnmetschieffer.2e548dacb.html
She should have thought of that before accepting the 100k.
Does he apply that to his religious views?
just wondering.
There is no hope for people who think “I found this email, therefore global warming isn’t happening” is a compelling argument.
I’d like to know how the IPCC came up with that figure.
Let me make a wild guess: Bolt was on Steve Price’s show?
Based on what Tim Flannery said in last nights LL, the 90% figure came from computer modelling.
I did have the misfortune to listen to Hugh Rimington on Steve Price yesterday acting like a spokesman for the Coalition, which is what you’d characterise most of the Canberra press gallery!
OzPolT – that article explains a lot. I listen to Landline on ABC and the view of many farmers is the exact opposite of Barnaby Joyce. Joyce is probably looking for the rural workers/pensioner vote to boost National party seats against the Libs. He was talking to Price on radio this morning and playing up the ‘poor pensioner having to pay more for everything’ side of the ETS.
Price is hilarious – he can’t make up his mind whether he’s a sceptic or believer. Plays both sides depending on who he’s talking to at the time. But he’s got his listeners going and they ring up to tell him that Barnaby is King of the World!!
The ETS may not have the desired affect on CC, but as a political tool it has been a middle stumping bowl from the ALP. Either it gets passed, but severly splits the coalition, has them spewing different messages, talking of leadership challenges, has the Nationals breaking off- and most importantly mixed messages to the electorate, or it doesn’t get passed and is a DD trigger.
Either way they are toast at the next election. Chalk up 10 more for the ALP, and a few more in the senate
Price desperately wants to be the next John Laws, a shame for him that Ray Hadley regularly spanks him in the ratings.
I think he’s on the right wing side of politics, and his wife works for Hockey too.
And how was that model tested, considering that we are supposedly now in uncharted territory in the earth’s climate? It’s easy to produce a model that correctly predicts the recent past from further past that. You just keep mucking around with it until it produces what you want. The real test is whether it predicts the future. That means we won’t know whether the model works for a few more decades.
READ THE BLOODY REPORT!
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm
Far out. A perfect example of willful ignorance masquerading as legitimate criticism.
No. He made that comment regarding recent years that are cooler relative to 1998.
The confidence of the conclusion is most likely a reflection of potential inaccuracies of the data.
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-world/us-to-set-co2-target-before-copenhagen-20091124-jdfp.html
yay Obi one is here the force is with us………
I voted for Julie Bishop.
By then if we don’t do something about climate change in the we will be stuffed, facing dramatic climate variance with massive costs to the world economy.
Ahhh yes… attack the womans credibility to try and shut her up eh?
Lets not forget that the Labor Party insiders were worried about “revealations” that would come out after the assault of Mike Rann with a magazine by the ex-husband. Now how did these insiders know what would be said months later by the woman? Did they have a crystal ball?
Come on people, put the pieces together already.
The U.S. House bill is proposing a cut of 17% the Senate bill is proposing a cut of 20%.
Obama may say 15% in order to ensure that he can get that figure through congress. He certainly won’t say more than 20%.
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-world/us-to-set-co2-target-before-copenhagen-20091124-jdfp.html
There goes one more excuse for the Lib deniers
What? She has been on National TV and will be on every episode of Today Tonight this week. How the hell does that constitute shutting her up?
Were you mesmerised?
SO, ignore the troll
Shadow cabinet has approved the ETS deal:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,26393150-29277,00.html
Now it goes to the joint partyroom.
The Age this morning is saying it was more like K$70. FFrom Seven’s point of viewCheap at twice the price so long as she/they get caught out.
Sticky keyboard.
Should have said:
The Age this morning is saying it was more like K$70. From Seven’s point of view it would have been cheap at twice the price so long as she/they don’t get caught out.
A sticky keyboard in an office whether it be mine or the Premier’s could be considered incriminating.
LOL Steve. You beat me to the punch there
Whether to take action is an entirely different matter from whether the model can be trusted.
Other sources were saying $200k. They’re all guessing.
Shows on
Does this mean that Shadow cabinet must vote as a bloc in the party room? Or are they still free agents?
Nah, Breakfast – Talking Liberal 3AW.
WOW! Look at the massive scientific insight on display!
Mark Riley (the reporter who did the Sunday Night interview) said on ABC Adelaide that it was “not a six figure sum” for both the 7 and New Idea deal.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/shadow-cabinet-agrees-ets-deal-20091124-jd8m.html
What a sight
Oops, wrong paste sorry about that.
In theory they are all meant to support the shadow cabinet position. But joint party room meetings aren’t theory.
Nah, Breakfast – Talking Liberal 3AW.
Kevin Andrews as leader??? LMAO! I say let him take leader. It’d be good for a laugh at least.
My understanding is that Channel 7 and New Idea combined came to 100k.
Thanks Shows…this joint party room meeting probably even less than usual on theory
Well, you were the one who apparently confused the two. I talked about the model and you responded on an entirely different subject.
Too late to shut her up. Now it’s a case of proving her wrong. A valid path to take I would have thought.
LOL! Your knowledge of science is severely limited, no one takes anything you write on the topic seriously.
Tomorrow headline:
Turnbull triumphs on ETS, Rudd caves in
This is from someone who said that Isaac Newton was wrong with no qualification.
ShowsON
I think there is no point debating Triton, and I don’t do so any more. He is completely disingenous and will never admit he is wrong. He uses a bunch of what are becoming standard tactics for denialists as though he gets them on an email list.
As for proof of the consequences of CC, here is a simple piece of logic that I think proves the point. There is physical evidence that more CO2 in the atmosphere makes the planet hotter. We are already have a higher concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere than at any time in the past 15 million years:
http://www.physorg.com/news174234562.html
The last time Greenland was ice free was 3 million years ago. The CO2 concentration then was about 350ppm; we now have 387ppm and rising 1-2ppm per year. We don’t need computer projections. We are already in trouble.
I looked for the Wilson Tuckey button but there wasn’t one.
Whether or not an ETS bill approved by the Coalition would have any affect on CC, another strictly political advantage for the ALP might stem from possible parallels with the deal Howard had to make with the Democrats for passage of his GST. Without those exemptions negotiated by Meg Lees, a greater backlash during the implementation of the GST might have cost the Coalition dearly.
Although the GST Deal destroyed Meg Lees and eventually her party, Howard and Costello got a regressive tax passed in a form appearing to be “moderate” as opposed to the appearance of the “extreme” WorkChoices when Coalition’s Senate majority meant there was no ameliorating its more controversial provisions.
Sorry, but I don’t believe anything he says
That’s true. He was very close to being right, but in science close isn’t good enough if you have another theory that is better.
If you knew anything about science you would understand that.
Now here is something that is a fact.
With the science of CC being so politicised of late (he said, she said, emails, the IPCC said, left-wing conspiracies etc. etc.), and the science being dragged through the mud, I would like to add my 2 cents worth from a scientist’s point of view. I have many friends and colleagues who work in atmospheric chemistry, and let me tell you they are not all far left, Green voting, conspirators.
When we strip away all the talk, all the implications, all the politics, this is at the heart of climate science. Allow me to present 1 simple graph:
http://www.architecture2030.org/images/current_situation/CS02-CO2-Temperature.gif
I admit, this came from a 15 second Google search, as I can’t link to the original papers. Do your own google search, and you’ll find many a graph showing much the same thing. Data like this is taken from examining Antarctic and Arctic ice cores, allowing (independent) measurements of CO2 concentration, and temperature over time. This has been done back to ~450,000 years into the past.
1. The data for global climate temperature variabilities go back hundreds of thousands of years. Not just to 1984, or whatever other year you would like to cherry-pick data so that you can “prove” the Earth is cooling. I’m looking at you, Steve Fielding.
2. Climate change IS a natural phenomenon. This is beyond doubt. We live on a diverse and dynamic planet, complete with cyclic ice ages. Even the sceptics admit this, however they believe it is ONLY a natural event.
3. The temperature (presented as relative to now) is STRONGLY correlated to the CO2 concentration. For those wanting a perfect correlation (so we are ’100% sure’), its called ‘within experimental error.’ If you ever want to trust scientific data, get used to it.
4. The CO2 concentration has not been this high in the last 450,000 years! This is NOT part of the natural cycle. ‘Coincidentally,’ it has been increasing since about the same time humans stumbled upon the Industrial Revolution.
If we combine points 3 and 4, and following the logic, you tell me what is going to happen. And what shall be the cause? Sure doesn’t look natural to me.
As for what to do about it, I don’t know. I’m not a politician, an economist, or a fortune teller.
Well, there’s your position on Newton in black and white. WRONG. Unbelievable.
There is a similar chart in this story on Greeland ice cores going back 11,000 years:
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/environment/july-dec09/greenland_10-19.html
It’s the standard post-modernist trick, they assert that since we can’t be 100% sure about science therefore we can’t be sure at all. They don’t understand that science progresses based on degrees of certainty, not complete certainty.
Patrick Conlon? PATRICK CONLON???
Oh please god no. If they’re gonna go with the left, PLEASE GO WEATHERILL.
Conlon… almost as bad a choice as Foley…
*crawls up and rocks back and forth in the corner in a foetal position*
SNIP: Deleted for abuse – The Management.
Socrates:
You accused me of dishonesty recently and I responded showing, I believed, that I had been consistent, and I asked you to provide the quotes showing the dishnesty. If you responded after that I didn’t see it. Now you’ve effectively accused me of it again. Put up or shut up.
Speaking of dishonesty, there’s an example of yours right there. You describe me as a ‘denialist’. Nowhere have I denied that AGW is occurring. I am simply unconvinced that it is occurring. That’s very different from being convinced that it is not occurring, which is the deniers’ camp. But to you close-minded true believers in AGW there is no difference between the two.
All I’ve said here is that the model predicting future disaster is as yet untested – a completey unremarkable statememt – yet to you this is “standard tactics for denialists.” Care to explain?
But, but, but, William!! Havent you listened to the CLLRs!! Greens for some reason would move to Labor over Rudd’s ETS!
Oh, of course. William hasn’t been taking the same mind-altering drugs.
Which just demonstrates that you have absolutely no idea about science. You are simply a cross between Andrew Bolt and Senator Fielding, and yet you go around lecturing people on the significance of Isaac Newton!
Can you sort of see why no one takes you seriously when you post about science?
No, people that believe climate change is occurring are supported by FACTS. Your position is supported by fear, uncertainty, and doubt, not EVIDENCE.
But again, I am not surprised that someone who knows so little about science doesn’t understand the importance of facts and evidence in supporting an argument.
YOU IDIOT! What, we should hang around and wait for massive environmental catastrophe to determine whether or not the model is perfectly accurate?
Comments like that are EVIDENCE that you have no understanding of how scientists do their work.
I have explained how you constantly demonstrate that you have no idea about science. If you didn’t understand it the first time, just re-read my posts, it will come to you eventually.
Any word on the JPR meeting yet?
ShowsOn:
No, you are. Find a respected physicist who would describe Newtonian mechanics as plain wrong. It’s just as an unfair description of perhaps the greatest scientist ever.
No, you don’t. This is exactly why Newton should not be dismissed as wrong. He was part of the progession and contrbuted hugely to science. Just because Einstein came along later and found that mechanics had to be modified based on the constancy of the speed of light does not diminish Newton’s work.
bob1234
I don’t suppose you’ve considered the possibility that the dissatisfaction could be over the handling of the AS issue and have bugger all to do with CC.
GB
Thanks for the link to the SMH poll. I voted for KA too
Pitty there weren’t more choices though. It would be nice to see Phillip Ruddock throw his cape into the ring.
What do you know about it? Have you read and understood all the papers or do you just blindly believe the IPCC?
Again you are confusing the science with taking action. Nowhere have I argued that action should not be taken because the science is unconvincing. Why do you keep doing this?
Triton
What makes you tink that AGW is not happening?
Do you think the Earth is not getting warmer?
Do you think that the extra CO2 is not from humans?
Do you not believe in the Greenhouse Effect?
What exactly is your problem with AGW?
Or Chrissy Pyne
Apparently all the ice has melted in Greenland, restoring the country to it’s namesake soon. We are all moving to Greenland with an area of over 2million square kilometers and a population of nearly 58k, there is plenty of room for everyone.
If we are going to back over Newton vs Einstein, let’s remember there is a reason all high school physics classes (and first year university for that matter) teach Newtonian mechanics at great length, and may only briefly touch on relativity.
Newtonian mechanics is simpler, and works for the majority of ‘real world’ scenarios not involving high gravitational fields or velocities.
Newton should be feted for achieving what he did in his time and with the technology available to him.
Einstein’s theories of Special and General Relativity are true pieces of genius. Experimentally verified time and time again. The perihelion of Mercury, gravitational redshifts and gravitaional lensing. The big fish here would be catching a gravitational wave.
But if we want to throw Newton out completely because his equations do not work in certain scenarios, then should we also ignore quantum mechanics and general relativity because they break down when combined to try and make sense of singularities such as at the heart of black holes and the Big Bang?
I think not.
Energy from the Sun comes to the Earth mainly in the form of visible light. The Earth reflects some of that radiation back into space and absorbs some of it. Absorbing the energy heats Earth. Anything hot radiates infrared, so some energy from the Earth passes back into space in the form of infrared radiation.
Water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases are transparent (or nearly) to the radiation of visible light, but absorb (as well as emitting) infrared radiation. Gases of this kind are called ‘greenhouse gases’. Other gases like nitrogen, oxygen, and argon are transparent (or nearly) to infrared radiation and so are not ‘greenhouse gases’.
‘Greenhouse gases’ can be found in the Earth’s atmosphere, where they absorb some of the infrared radiation from the Earth. They also emit infrared radiation, but they emit it back to Earth as well as out into space, so they reduce the rate at which the Earth loses energy to space. This is the ‘greenhouse effect’, by which ‘greenhouse gases’ make the Earth’s temperature higher than it would be if they were not present in the atmosphere. The higher the concentration of ‘greenhouse gases’ in the atmosphere, the higher the Earth’s temperature must be–that is, statistically speaking. Lots of other things affect the Earth’s temperature, not just the concentration of ‘greenhouse gases’ in the atmosphere. The effect of increasing the concentration of ‘greenhouse gases’ in the Earth’s atmosphere must be to increase the Earth’s average temperature, but the actual value of the Earth’s temperature depends on other factors as well. If a rising concentration of greenhouse gases is increasing the temperature at the same time that something else is reducing it, the temperature might stay the same, but it’s still true that the increase in greenhouse gases makes the Earth hotter than it would otherwise have been.
For the last few hundred years, human beings have been burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas). Fossil fuels have been buried for hundreds of millions of years. Burning them releases the carbon they contain into the atmosphere in the form of carbon dioxide, which is a ‘greenhouse gas’. Human burning of fossil fuels must increase the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere above what it would otherwise have been, and that must increase the Earth’s average temperature above what it would otherwise have been.
Global warming sceptics typically argue that the Earth’s average temperature is not rising, or that we can’t be sure that it is, or that we can’t be sure how much it is, or that increases in the Earth’s temperature are caused by factors other than human activity, or that we can’t be sure that they’re caused by human activity, or that we can’t be sure how much of them are caused by human activity. But even if all these things were true, it would still be true that human burning of fossil fuels makes the Earth warmer than it would otherwise be and that if humans reduced the rate at which they burned fossil fuels it would reduce this effect.
Hmm, Libs having an eacch way bet ?
J-D
and geological studies indicate that this is actually quite a cool period in the Earth’s history. For the majority of the Earth’s history the world has been significantly hotter (on the order of 10 degrees). Humans and the ecosystems around the world are cold-climate loving, heating the world is not a good idea.
DaveM
The graph of Temp vs CO2 does show very strong correlation but it doesn’t prove causation. In fact, studies have shown that the rise in temp happens before CO2 goes up. However, there is a forcing effect of the rise in CO2 which makes the temp go higher still.
As i predicted, David Speers of Skynews just described: The Govt caves in on the ETS demands.
So shadow cabinet has said yes as expected and it’s up to the party room now.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/shadow-cabinet-gives-ets-deal-all-clear/story-fn3dxiwe-1225803221298
Astrobleme:
I don’t say that it’s not happening. It might be happening, which is reason enough not to change the concentration of gases in the atmosphere, so I support the cutting of carbon emissions. I’m just not convinced that it is happening, mainly due to the extreme complexity of the problem, doubts about the reliabilty of evidence from eons ago, the impossibility of doing the kind of controlled experiment that would settle the matter, and partly because it’s become such a poiltical issue (as evidenced by how I get jumped on here for not conforming to the fashionable view). Good scientists are sceptical. If I were to learn climate science and read all the papers and be sure about all the data, then I might be able to form a view.
Dio,
You are right, correlation does not necessarily mean causation, but see J-D at 113 for the science behind the idea that CO2 (one of the greenhouses gases) does contribute to a warmer Earth.
Yes, and it will be a ‘win for the Libs’, and ‘humiliation for the Government’
Or, triton, you could short circuit the process, talk to or read the opinions of trusted and reliable scientists and take it from there.
Honestly, if every time anyone who had to make a decision based on the science had to go off and do the relevant course first, we’d be back to living in caves very quickly.
As it is, most of us have the necessary braincells to work out who to trust and who not to, and make decisions accordingly.
DaveM
It is unquestionably true that CO2 contributes to warming by the greenhouse effect (just look at Venus whose atmosphere is almost all CO2, making it warmer than Mercury).
However scientifically, that does not prove that the rise in CO2 will cause the rise in temps we are seeing or expecting.
Gus, you are being eaten to death:
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/south-africa/091018/madagascars-natural-resources-pillaged-amid-political-chaos?page=0,1
DaveM, what kind of scientist are you?
Meanwhile over at Skynooz:
Dio 116
You can actually do lab tests to show that a container with a higher concentration of CO2 does indeed trap more heat energy passing through it. In fact they even replicated the test on mythbusters recently. Perhaps the ultimate proof is Venus, which has a very high CO2 atmoshere and an average temperature hotter than Mercury, even though it is twice the distance from the sun. So the claim that CO2 in the atmosphere causes warming is a fact of physical science. You don’t need correlation to prove the basic physics.
The hard part is calculating rates of change for complex systems like our planet’s atmosphere. This is where computer modelling and correlation comes in. There is thus uncertainty about future projections and the risks arising from them, but not the general claim that more CO2 causes warming. This is where the skeptics cheat – they argue from the uncertainty over a specific forecast to claim uncertainty over the general theory, when there is no uncertainty over the latter.
Indubitably. The Government will find it unbearable when the “Nay” Libs start bellowing their extreme displeasure with the bill in the media.
Even more damaging for Rudd will be when the “Nay” Senators thunder their extreme displeasure in the Chamber when the bill is debated for passage.
I’m gobsmacked by this Skynews poll so far:
Should Mike Rann step down if allegations of an affair are found to have substance?
Yes 33%
No 67%
Well, I don’t have to make a decision. You can believe what you like for whatever reason you like. If I expressed doubts about, say, superstring theory, what difference would it make to anyone? This is what I mean about AGW being such a political issue. You can’t treat it as a pure scientific issue like anything else, but that’s all I’ve tried to do here.
Well, I don’t know how you’ve worked out who to trust. Just suppose that there were some contrary evidence. Do you really think the IPCC would give it as much weight in their assessment as the evidence in favour of AGW? Maybe they would, but they’ve committed themselves to AGW to such an extent that I would have doubts.
Did you all catch Julia in yesterday’s QT quoting the “Daily Liberal”? She was not referring to a provincial newspaper.
Socrates
You have said exactly what I said at 124 but more eloquently.
You’re seriously gobsmacked by a poll on Sky News that is strongly against Labor? I’d be gobsmacked if it was in favour of Labor.
Gah! I totally read that poll the wrong way round. Now I am gobsmacked!
Dio 124
Sorry missed that one; didn’t mean to tell you how to such eggs.
As I said obviously there is uncertainty over any projection that involves a complex model, and climate models are very complex. Yet that does not mean we should ignore such models, or that action is not justified. We use complex models to justify actions in lots of things – economic policy, provision of water supply design of buildings for eathquakes, even future health needs
The uncertainty goes both ways. It is possible variables in climate models that we understand the behaviour of individually may interact in a way that makes the consequences less than forecast. Conversely they may be worse too.
Overall though, I have been struck by how accurate climate models have become in the past 20 years. We have much better data, better physics models and more accurate forecasts. IPCC have been making forecasts since 1994 and most have either come true or been exceeded. yet even the first CO2 climate modeling I read of in 1988 seemd to eb right. It predicted a hotter overall average temperature, greater variability in temperature and rainfall, more rain in northern Australia, and less in the south. By and large, that is all turning out to be true.
Me too
Tim, Same reaction when I first saw it. lol
Senator Fierravanti-Wells is one Lib who’s not in the meeting. She’s speaking in the Senate. I wonder if they let them out one at a time to speak.
From Radio Liberal Sydney.
Triton
” don’t say that it’s not happening. It might be happening, which is reason enough not to change the concentration of gases in the atmosphere, so I support the cutting of carbon emissions. I’m just not convinced that it is happening, mainly due to the extreme complexity of the problem, doubts about the reliabilty of evidence from eons ago, the impossibility of doing the kind of controlled experiment that would settle the matter, and partly because it’s become such a poiltical issue (as evidenced by how I get jumped on here for not conforming to the fashionable view). Good scientists are sceptical. If I were to learn climate science and read all the papers and be sure about all the data, then I might be able to form a view.”
Yes… See there is not much substance in this argument.
“doubts about the reliabilty of evidence from eons ago” – this is part of geology, and although there are doubts or uncertainties about exactly how hot it was or what the exact level of CO2 was the evidence is actually very reliable. There’s no point pretending that during the Cretaceous there were no polar ice caps. Or pretending that polar ice caps are rare in the Earth’s history. Although there is evidence of some pretty extreme ice ages – in the Permian for example – in the Pilbara of WA. There are still glacial scratch marks on rocks from the Permian ice ages exposed at the surface.
“the impossibility of doing the kind of controlled experiment that would settle the matter”
But we have done controlled experiments on the properties of CO2 as a gas. There’s no doubt about its and other greenhouse gases behaviour.
“partly because it’s become such a poiltical issue (as evidenced by how I get jumped on here for not conforming to the fashionable view). ”
Yes it has, but only recently. Most of the work on AGW was done in the 70s and early 80s (after being somewhat dormant since Arrhenius) – the more recent work hasn’t been on proving the theory, but rather attempting to quantify the amount of warming – that’s where the science is right now. The ‘doubts’ about AGW rest entirely in the ‘how much can we expect’ and the ‘what will that do to us’ realm.
Oops I missed some words out above
“There’s no point pretending that during the Cretaceous there were no polar ice caps. Or pretending that polar ice caps are rare in the Earth’s history.”
That should read: “There’s no point pretending we don’t know that during the Cretaceous there were no polar ice caps. Or pretending we don’t know that polar ice caps are rare in the Earth’s history.”
Datsun?
Skynews lead story: Govt caves in on Opposition’s demands
Typical response from Mother Christine from the holy ordeer of the Greens.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/24/2751855.htm
LOL! There you go again! According to you, thousands of scientists around the world wrote the IPCC report supporting climate change simply because they already believed in climate change!
You have absolutely no idea what scientists do. You are as bad as Tony Abbott who said on Lateline last week that scientists just say whatever is fashionable.
Harry ‘Snapper’ Organs,
If you see this, yes I saw the story on Antarctic sheet ice on the Australia Network news this morning. It is interesting not least because recently there was a story that claimed that fears about Antarctic ice melting were overblown because in the west there is ice being created. The story suggested, if I heard correctly, that it is more accurate to say that western sheet ice is disappearing more slowly than that in the east. However, to put some context to the impact of this, the Australian scientist who was quoted in the story said that this could lead to a half-metre rise in sea levels over the next 1000 years.
I also note that the Australia Network news broadcast cited 17 Coalition Senators who will vote against the ETS, but they weren’t clear if this was just Liberal Senators or included the Nats.
The western Antarctic ice sheet is indeed thickening. This is because: warming of the Southern Ocean = increased evaporation = increased cloud cover over Antarctica = increased precipitation = more snow = more ice. In eastern Antarctica, which is much more exposed to the warming trend of the Southern Ocean, the ice cover is thinning and the ice shelves are breaking up.
Astrobleme:
Since I’m not advocating a particular position, substance doesn’t come into it. I don’t need substance to be unconvinced by another’s position. The other needs substance to support their position. It might be there, but as I haven’t studied the science in depth I’m not in a position to know whether it is or not.
That’s not the expermient I meant. In science if you have a hypothesis that a particular change causes a particular effect the usual course is to do a controlled experiment to test the hypothesis. Scientists would normally insist upon it. In this case the hypothesis is something like, “Carbon emissions resulting from human activity cause global warming that is significantly deleterious to Earth’s living conditions”. That’s the experiment we are unable to do, since we don’t have the necessary supply of solar systems identical to ours as it was several hundred years ago (or in any other form) to do the experiment on.
That’s assuming that you accept the position of AGW proponents and ignore the sceptics. I don’t have the necessary information to make that preference.
What I love in the whole global warming debate is the implication that there is this massive conspiracy to create hysteria about a non-existent threat. Pray tell, who the hell would gain anything serious from this? What, a few Wilderness Society memberships and votes for the Greens? This is enough to provoke a global conspiracy of epic proportions? Guess what, even environmentalists don’t want to pay more than they have to for power, food etc.
But… what if we look in the other direction? I wonder if anyone has billions and billions of dollars at stake in making sure that there is “debate” and “skepticism” about the science of global warming? Hmm, nah, can’t think of any vested interests who might fit that description…
TREMENDOUS! You finally did it! You admitted that you have no argument.
Well done, we thank you, and now know not to take your posts related to climate change, climate science, or science seriously.
So you are just going to make posts expressing your ideological nihilism?
Boerwar, BH, and others,
Eva Cox has today written for The Stump on an independent report concerning the consultation process for the NT intervention that we were discussing yesterday.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/thestump/2009/11/24/will-they-be-heard-not-when-a-consultation-is-a-continuation-of-the-problem-rather-than-the-possible-solution-like-the-federal-government’s-attempt-to-justify-its-nt-intervention/
Anyone remember http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ITqh-Tzs3QM? I think I’ll change thje words to Rak off Joycee….
hahaha- tonights project
QT might have to be cancelled if the Liberals still cannot stop bashing each other to pieces.
Rewi
Thanks. Nothing surprising there.
The cut-through steps might arrive when:
(1) the ones with power understand that while they try to ram their values through they will tend to fail, and also when
(2) the ones without power understand that ultimate freedom comes from economic power and that that will involve melding their values into a globalized economy.
Decolonization might do it, I imagine.
Remember? It’s a left-wing conspiracy. It allows them a new agenda to set about regulating every part of our lives after the fall of communism. Or something like that.
Argument for what?
I assume that means that you do have an argument. What is it other than accepting reports of science supporting AGW, and rejecting all reports of scepticism and having none of your own?
Where did you get the idea that there’s anything ideological about my position?
Trouble for Turnbull. The Liberals are breaking up QT to continue the bashing at 4pm.
Libs fail to reach agreement !
Which is very interesting given the Senate is due to vote on Fielding’s motion to delay consideration of the bills at around that time.
speers reckons the gov’t have not given opposition enough time…
So how different is it from the policy the libs took to the last election ?
Sounds as if what is on offer is far more generous to the polluters
Most of the population is Inuit 88% in Greenland.
Triton
““Carbon emissions resulting from human activity cause global warming that is significantly deleterious to Earth’s living conditions”.
This is a poorly framed hypothesis.
“In science if you have a hypothesis that a particular change causes a particular effect the usual course is to do a controlled experiment to test the hypothesis. ”
This is rarely possible in natural sciences. The best we can do is model. Remeber we arent tying to predict an exact outcome – that would be impossible by definition (it’s a choatic system). What we need is a best estimate. That’s the best we can expect and it is perfectly reasonable to at on that best estimate.
Only 25 minutes to go until we find out if the Coalition is a rabble or a really, really big rabble!
It will be interesting to see if, at QT, Rudd & Co do their own bashing of Turnbull & co while he is down down down.
Triton
“and rejecting all reports of scepticism and having none of your own?”
Largely the sckeptics position is garbage. It mostly amounts to ‘we don’t want no tax’, and has nothing to do with science.
Greenland today is critically dependent on fishing and fish exports.
When you admitted that you don’t know what you are talking about.
Any links for the Libs failure to come to agreement yet?
Yes, Thomas Paine, I see the missing apostrophe.
I’m absolutely shocked. So we went from “Govt caves in to Oppn demands” to “Govt caves into Oppn demands but doesn’t give Oppn enough time to agree to those demands that they themselves demanded”. Seriously, the guy is a lightweight tool.
Not to mention that “skeptic” is a misnomer. Scientists are the most skeptical people known. They need a lot of evidence before they are sure of something, and at that point they are still only sure until better evidence comes in.
The correct term for “climate change skeptic” is actually “climate change denier” The facts are in, the evidence is overwhelming.
But, as with most scientific theories, there will ALWAYS be some hold outs. There are still flat Earthers, and there are still millions of people who deny the FACT of evolution.
I said “something like”. Obviously “deleterious to Earth’s living conditions” would need to be defined more precisely. I don’t think this is central to the problem that the experiment is not possible.
I don’t dispute this. All I’m saying is that the inability to do the experiment makes the conclusions much less certain than they would otherwise be. A human body is extremely complex. All sorts of things go on in it that we don’t understand, yet whether a drug cures a disease can be demonstrated to a high degree of confidence with a controlled experiment. In theory an equivalent AGW experiment is possible, just not in practice. The lower standard of evidence in the case of AGW is a legitimate reason to have doubts.
How frigging long does it take the Liberals to consider a package of amendments?
I’m so looking forward to QT!
Mas Rewi, QT
The CC Deniers are out in force on “Their ABC”.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/24/2751855.htm
Triton:
ShowsOn:
Have you been drinking since 9.30 as well? What does what I know or don’t know have to do with ideology?
Because if the loony sceptics roll Turnball, MacFarlane’s position in shadow cabinet is basically untenable too(considering that he was so enthusiastic about the deal this morning).
Meanwhile the shock jocks on talkback radio, especially those on 2GB, are predicting doom and gloom if the CPRS is passed!
So I guess Turnball will launch another censor motion on boat people!
Censure motion – correction!
166 – Why wouldn’t they?
WRONG! Not when all sorts of evidence from over the last 20 years keeps saying the same thing, as the concentration of CO2 increases, so does average global temperature.
i told you so. QT has been postponed until 4pm and Andrew Robb has done an Abbott. Turnbull is toast!!!!!
I censure the Prime Minister for failing to enable me to get a policy through my joint partyroom!
David Speers has just corrected himself to say QT will go ahead at 2pm.
Hmm, no QT on their ABC today, unless they show the Senate QT.
I’m running out of popcorn!
Yes, how dare Rudd fail to get this through the Coalition partyroom – probably tomorrow’s headline in “The Daily Liberal”, as Julia calls it!
No. The party room meeting has been interrupted and will resume at 4.
Hmm.
This is getting better and better.
How predictable, a question on boat people!
Turnball looks very deflated!
Rewi@169:
Yes, but where should it go?
Triton
The hypothesis should be broken into smaller pieces.
So;
1. Does CO2, and other greenhouses gases, absorb IR radiation emitted by the surface of the Earth
2. Is the extra CO2 (and possibly other greenhouse gases) in the atmosphere a consequence of Human activity.
3. Does the absorption of energy by CO2 result in the transfer of energy to other nearby molecules and increase the temperature.
and so on.
“All I’m saying is that the inability to do the experiment makes the conclusions much less certain than they would otherwise be. ”
That’s true, but it’s meaningless unless you quantify it. How much more uncertain are we? I would say ‘not much’. Given the wealth of geological and paleontological evidence it is highly unlikely that the Earth doesn’t respond to changes in CO2. It would be a remarkable foluke that the response was due to something else, esepcially given that we know the physical properties of the gas.
Have you heard of Occam’s Razor?
“In theory an equivalent AGW experiment is possible, just not in practice. ”
Yes, in theory we could build another Earth and watch what happens… But that would be pointless, as we know that the system is chaotic and there is no unique solution to the problem.
“The lower standard of evidence in the case of AGW is a legitimate reason to have doubts.”
This is a misunderstanding on your part. The level of evidence for AGW is the same as that for other natural sciences, from geology to paleontology to botany and biology. Do you doubt the existence of dinosaurs? You may doubt what colour they were and how many there were, but to doubt their existence because of some ‘doubts’ in the science would be stretching skepticism to unreal lengths.
Dario, how about I pass you a slab?
This is gonna be good!
Frank@175:
[The CC Deniers are out in force on “Their ABC”.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/24/2751855.htm
Say what?
Not on the version I read on our ABC.
Can you be more specific? Looks like a straight news article to me.
Is it possible that the “let’s reconvene the meeting at 4 PM” is simply the climate change deniers last stand? Resuming the meeting is the final concession that they have managed to get out of the sensiliberals before they finally cave in?
Meanwhile in The Senate:
No doubt written from the Senator’s laptop
Comments at the bottom.
Seriously the Government should run question time until 5 PM.
Is this Malcopop’s last QT as leader?
Frank@198:
Our ABC is hardly responsible for those who comment, surely?
But the usual commenters are of the right side of the political fence.
From Latika Bourke:
If indeed that Andrew Robb has done an Abbott and called for the NO vote, then it will explain his “illness” and not to carry on as the CC negotiator.
He is a traitor has stabbed Turnbull in the back. i am starting now to have sympathy for Turnbull after seeing all the knives that are protruding from his back
I guess right wing radio isn’t responsible for who calls up either, but it does give you an idea of their listenership and readership, and perhaps they gear themselves to that listenership/readership as a result?
I don’t accept that it’s reasonable to reduce an extremely complex system such as the earth’s atmosphere and all the influences on it to the simple effect of radiation on CO2. There could be any number of unexpected effects that you haven’t even thought of. That’s where the impossible experiment would help.
I agree that that particular experiment would be pointless, since there’s no control nor any statistical significance. I was thinking of about 50 earths as a control and another 50 on which you would burn fossil fuels from the mid 1800s. If you found consistency in each group but a big difference between the groups you can be pretty confident about cause and effect.
No, we have the bones. Unfortunately the evidence for AGW is not so tangible.
Et tu Robb
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/turnbull-in-battle-to-secure-ets-deal/story-e6frg6xf-1225803315311
QT is going to be a blood bath.
Rudd says Press Gallery rather than Public Gallery. LOL Slip of the tongue or a more than subtle dig?
Gus,
http://www.globalpost.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/medium/photos/12/Madagascar_11_20_09_Brulliard_lemurs2_edit.jpg
LOL! He didn’t! He said that was ONE hypothesis in a RANGE of other hypotheses! You’re just quote mining now – misinterpreting words and using them as evidence to back up your lack of a position.
This is just stupid and pointless, we don’t have 100 earths to do experiments on, we have ONE that we live on.
That fact an increase in CO2 emissions leads to an increase in average global temperature is very tangible.
You’re not a skeptic, you are a denier.
QT in both houses is in fact quite tame, because everyone knows that this is not where the main game is today. They’re just going through the motions while waiting for The Rabble to make up its mind (if it has one).
Talkback radio in Sydney caters to the Liberals, one of the jocks on 2GB this morning admitted as much!
Labor voters/Greens only really have the ABC for supposedly unbiased news/content.
The Liberals are having a hernia over this because they are essentially having a debate now to determine what their election strategy is going to be in about 10 months time.
I can appreciate that it would be very hard making such a decision now that will have massive consequences many months away when many other things will happen.
I’m amazed how far the government has gone to try to get he Liberal’s support:
http://media.theaustralian.com.au/pdf/CPRSchanges.pdf
If the Liberals don’t support this then they will never support an ETS.
After all of this tearing each other apart how in the world can anyone even suggest them as an alternative government.
If they roll turnbull and dump him as leader, why wouldn’t he just stay around on the backbench and stab and turn the knife at every opportunity, indeed create opportunities to do so.
ShowsOn, take a leaf from Astrobleme and try to argue your case in a scientific and civil manner, or keep quiet. It’s simply impossible to have a reasonable discussion with the likes of you and Socrates.
From Joe hockey’s Twitter:
Maybe it was this from the beginning:
ETS = Eliminate Turnbull Scheme
Same old tired questions from the same old faces. Memo Libs: the OV saga is over.
I do not think we should doubt Robb’s depression, or belittle it.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26382226-5006301,00.html
I for one voted no.
Ah, that Rudd, he’s a cunning bloke!
St Kevin just put mesma back in her bum again. She can’t even put an effective question together.
What does ‘based on no outcome at Copenhagen’ mean?
There will be an outcome, we just don’t know the extent of it yet. I assume it means no internationally agreed targets.
Memo Adam, it’s the best political opportunity the coalition has going for it at this point in time.
Bob, obviously the young Libs have been hard at work again, spamming another poll on a News Ltd site?
Wow, Combet for once isn’t being heckled!
The air is thick with tension and the sound of conspiracy!
Maybe, but they’ve flogged it to death!
No doubt.
Rudd should be trying to piss the opposition off as much as possible so they go back to the partyroom all angry.
I wonder if many Labor ppl are spamming it too.
turnbull not saying much in QT so far.
When I told you here a few months ago what a piece of the proverbial Robb was, and how his “illness” was likely a crock, I was pilloried by the sanctimonious holier than thou’s here.
Like Finns and Psephos, I am seldom wRONg.
Magnificent own goal by Julie B.
If ETS is rejected. Rudd has no choice but to call a DD, else his own credibility will suffer.
Otherwise, he will be perceived as weak, the other side has called him bluff and he chickens out. Bring it on.
It would’ve been great if the government made it so the CPRS compromise narrowly increased future deficits.
That way if they vote FOR the ETS deal they will actually be voting for more debt and deficit!
Haven’t they had two years of full bore anger already ?
Hey fulvio, read Today’s Inside Cover ?
(Sorry, don’t have Fulvio’s contact details tgo do this offlist.)
And that’s a bad thing?
He is not going to hold an election in late December or January and Parliament resumes in early February. The Coalition won’t reject the CPRS, they’ll delay it (if they don’t pass it that is).
Wow!
So if the opposition votes for the CPRS deal then the debt will be estimated to be $750 million higher in 10 years time.
So they will be voting for more debt in the short term.
I don’t think they have the numbers to delay it.
Sloppy Joe is back!
I’m in Sydney atm, Frank, limited access to the internet or the West. What was it about?
I like some blood sport now and then, particularly when its tHEIr blood
As far as i know, there are depressions that are self inflicted.
If he’s likely faking it, then it’s open to doubt.
Bit like Labor and the 2001 federal election ass-kicking. We had to listen to the Labor losers whine about “Children Overboard” for years after, and the punters cared so much they re-elected him solidly in 2004 YET AGAIN.
Talk about not being able to get over the past.
You mean that the Prime Minister and minister for defence lied and mislead the Australian people?
Go to the willagee thread
All will be revealed there
Triton
“I don’t accept that it’s reasonable to reduce an extremely complex system such as the earth’s atmosphere and all the influences on it to the simple effect of radiation on CO2. There could be any number of unexpected effects that you haven’t even thought of. ”
It’s a good start though. as to ‘unexpected results’, that’s just appealing to the unknown. The modelling is actually quite complex and until you demonstrate what these ‘unexpected effects’ are then there’s no reason to accept their existence. And if you accept the existence of unexpected results (that presumably stop the world from warming) then why don’t you accept the existence of unexpected results that make the warming worse? you need to vigorously apply Occam’s Razor…
“No, we have the bones. Unfortunately the evidence for AGW is not so tangible.”
Of course the evidence of AGW is tangible. Whether it be the CO2 levels from ice cores, the reduction global ice, the recent increase in global temps, changes in ocean pH, lowering of atmospheric O2 levels, cooling in the stratosphere.
And we have tangible evidence of climate changes in the past, The increase in global temps during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal max (and the associated extinction event). The ice ages in the Permian and Neoproterozoic are well represented in rock formations (whether it be the Paterson Formation in WA for the Permian, or rocks from the Officer Basin in South Australia of Cryogenian age). We have a pretty good handle the CO2 levels during the Cretaceous due to the size of stomata in plant fossils. We know that the latitudinal extent of plant life through the Phanerozoic (last 650 million years) demonstrates that almost all of it lived through a ‘hot house’ world – one that was much warmer and had much higher CO2 levels. We also know that the sun was weaker in the past; following the path of solar evolution stars get warmer as they age.
All of this evidence supports the notion that greenhouse gases affect global temps. All support the notion that putting more CO2 into the atmosphere will raise global temps.
TTH: You obviously didn’t care about the 300 people who drowned on the Siev X, those who your beloved Howard Govt. failed to rescue!
Therefore your hero John Howard is guilty of mass murder!
Triton, the relevant physical properties of carbon dioxide gas (namely, that it is not transparent to infrared radiation, with all that implies) have been known for over a hundred years, are readily confirmable by experiment, and are not disputed by any scientist.
It follows from those undisputed physical properties that an increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere must make the planet warmer than it would otherwise have been. No direct experimental test of this is necessary. Your suggestion that the inability to make a direct experimental test affects the issue shows a basic misunderstanding of how science works. Astrophysics, ecology, and volcanology (to name but three) are not less scientific because we can’t build stars, ecosystems, or volcanoes in a laboratory. The essence of scientific procedure is not controlled experiment (although that is of course valuable when it can be done) but intersubjectively verifiable observation. Kepler looked and saw what the planets did, and anybody else could (and still can) make the same observations.
There is, as far as I understand it, some genuine dispute among scientists about how much a rising atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide will affect global temperature. But anybody who is not prepared to admit that it will make the planet hotter than it would otherwise have been is trying to burke the truth.
Ignore the lying troll
Why arent you out in your tinnie defending our coastline?
But we don’t have 100 Earths to test this theory on, therefore it must be wrong.
Fins 221
Exactly. There was no accident in the other name for the bill:
CPRS = Coalition Political Rabble Scheme
Its not had to understand why the conservatives were so incensed by all those “Hockey stick” graphs either.
What did Robb do ?
Just listening to the Senate (radio only here at work): out of 24,000 Schools Stimulus projects, only 60 complaints have been received. 1 has been unresolved.
So much for the “catastrophe” of the Schools Stim package.
Diogenes, Robb argued in the partyroom meeting that the Libs should reject the amended legislation.
Where’s Malcolm? Retired hurt?
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/robb-deals-blow-to-turnbulls-emission-deal-20091124-jd8m.html?autostart=1
Ahh look! 2009 and it happened all the way back in 2001 and they are still whining.
Politicians do occassionally tell lies, for example when the Prime Minister says the OV aren’t getting special treatment, despite them being put in the Woolies Express Lane to insta-Visa. Or when the government says they aren’t responsible for the 1500% in boatpeople arrivals year on year, despite it happening right after they introduced their new soft touch laws.
Maybe we should set up a long drawn out inquiry like the left did with “children overboard”, whine about it for years on end and pretend the public give a toss when in fact they couldn’t care less because as usual bleeding hearts are a vocal minority.
Ego reconstruction,I think
Member for Riverina looked very ugly, spitting chips.
It must now be seriously suspected that Robb used “depression” as a politically safe way of resigning from the front bench so he didn’t have to negotiate Turnbull’s ETS surrender for him. The good thing about depression is that it has no physical symptoms and is entirely a matter of opinion whether you have it or not.
This QT is really surreal. On one side is elation and on the other is depression (no wonder Robb was depressed).
There should be a competition for the funniest conclusion to the CPRS saga.
I think it would be hilarious if the joint coalition partyroom ultimately decides to oppose the scheme, Turnbull resigns from the opposition leadership AND from parliament, and THEN 7 Liberals cross the floor in the Senate, vote against the coalition policy, and the CPRS passes
Herr Doktor, well said
What an insult to the genuine victims of depression if Robb faked the whole thing!
Oh well, he sucked in Jeff Kennett!
What about the 12 who drowned only a few weeks ago? Is Kevin Rudd personally responsible for those? Or what about the 5 died after someone poured petrol and blew up the boat in April? Is Kev responsible for those deaths as well?
Heres some interesting facts about Siev X:
1. They were in Indonesian Waters
2. They were in Indonesian search and rescue zone
3. Australia had no boats in the area at the time to rescue these people
John Howard was not superman who could fly out there and rescue them all. I know, hard to believe but true.
[The good thing about depression is that it has no physical symptoms and is entirely a matter of opinion whether you have it or not.
This is not true. People suffering clinically diagnosed depression often have different brain chemistry from those who aren't suffering depression. Anti depressant drugs work by re-altering brain chemistry.
How about Kevin Andrews becoming Liberal leader, with Cory Bernadi as his deputy?
Damn, that didn’t last long! You win.
Toothy, the Opium War finished 160 years ago.
Truthiness
When you said “we” I take it you mean you supported the Liberals under Howard then. I’m confused. I thought you said you were not aligned to any party? Do you campaign or work for one? (I don’t.)
The Coalition splits in two, leading to three cornered contests in rural and regional HoR seats until the new conservative party joins forces with the Nationals.
Sorry, four corner contests.
I can well imagine Brendan Grylls getting the phone call from Barnyard to advse the troops.
Could the problem be that the deniers want to play a “long game”. By that I mean they assume that have no chance of winning next year’s election, but they think that the election after that could be won with a scare campaign on the ETS.
If the Liberals support the ETS this year, then it would be very hard for them to then run a scare campaign on electricity costs (for example), because they voted for the thing that increased electricity prices.
It is a fair while since I watched a QT. Phew.
Lambs to the comprehensive slaughter. The questions were all over the place. No theme. No target. The questions were shots in the dark that mostly ended as shots in the foot.
Even the whistlers in the public gallery triggered effective gibes about dog whistles and whistling in the dark.
Try this one: the moderates resign from the Coalition, and form a new party:
THE GENUINELY LIBERAL PARTY! They include Turnball, McFarlane, Marise Payne, Chris Pyne, Sloppy Joe.
McFarlane really isn’t much of a moderate IMO. He was a complete climate change denier during the Howard government.
It was notable that Swan has improved 100% on his stumbling start.
evan14,
They would be the GLIBs.
Bring back the Ming!!!!
meanwhile on the US CPRS:
To all parents:
If your child lies, don’t reprimand them with limp-wristed stories about the importance of telling the truth. Instead explain to them that the country’s erstwhile leader, John Howard, routinely lied. And this makes families safe.
When I say “We” I’m talking about the Australian punters.
The reality is that other than the Labor Party, a few party stooges and the bleeding heart minority, no one CARED whether Howard told a fibbie on whether children were thrown overboard or not. It was the biggest BS beatup by Labor ever, and probably had a little to do with their defeat in 2004 because it made them look like such sore losers, which they were.
Howard beat Labor fair and square in 2001, instead of sucking on sour grapes, moaning and whining, Labor should have built a bridge and gotten OVER IT. Instead they had a whine, inquiries and other sore loser affairs and went on to lose yet another election in 2004.
It just goes to show that just because you think your stupid little partisan pet projects like “children overboard” are super duper important, doesn’t actually mean the voters out there care.
From David Speers:
True, but McFarlane will be punished by the right for negotiating with Rudd/Wong!
I doubt he’d be part of a shadow cabinet led by Abbott or Andrews!
The Slightly Liberal Party??
I still believe Robb had depression and now we know why.
It was a great break for us that Robb had to quit and Macca take over. Robb could easily have sabotaged the deal.
What a lowlife.
No one has to, it’s implicit.
Why arent you out in your tinnie enforcing the Pacific Rim-Ming solution?
They could take a leaf out of Gerry Georgatos’ book and go with the ‘Real Liberals’.
Whew, that’s alright then.
Shy News is reporting Rudd has caved in on CPRS.
Well, the funniest thing of all would be if the 4000 scientists who have contributed to successively worse predictions with each IPCC Report were wRONg and the Deniers were rIGHt.
Geez. Wouldn’t I laugh. It would be like laughing in the rain at the end of one particularly nasty drought on our farm when I was a kid. A fair few of our cows died in that one and the drought went on, and on, and on. When the rain came, we ran out in it and laughed like crazy.
Who would want to be? They’d end up with Cory Bernardi has shadow attorney general.
And have all their suporters posting under the one post
Damn, I wanted more hilarity.
I wanted it to be that the meeting doesn’t break up until Lateline is about to end.
BREAKING NEWS! The Liberals have a climate policy!
diog, self inflicted, no sympathy.
Anyone seen from Dusk till Dawn? My senario is that in the party room the climate change deniers will turn into demons and savage the rest……..forming??????…………you guessed it …,.
The Zombie Liberal Party….
Andrew Robb will be the leader as he is already a zombie and then mesmerelda as deputy Zombie
Yep. turnbulls position would be shot to pieces, a la “I will NOT lead a party…….”
The internal bad blood the libs are imposing on themselves won’t go away anytime soon.
Astrobleme:
I had responded to your points on CO2, not modelling. With a complex system a cautious scientist will not assume that he’s thought of everything that can occur in it. The worst case is that completely unexpected effects will occur so that possibility cannot be dismissed. For example, how do we know the effects of rising CO2 combined with other environmental factors on certain forms of life, say algae? They might flourish and absorb much of the additional CO2. Can any scientist say that will not happen? As you’ve already pointed out, the earth is a chaotic system, so chaotic effects, by nature unpredictable, might occur.
That is still nowhere near as tangible as a bone. How were the levels of CO2 from ice cores measured? How were the temperatures measured? What are the possible reasons for those levels and temperatures? Could there have been other factors that independently increased CO2 and temperature? You don’t need to ask such questions when you are holding a bone in your hand.
Wow, who’d make Cory Bernardi shadow minister for anything?
Here’s a good exercise, let’s draw up a Coalition front bench made up entirely of global warming sceptics/non-believers!
Dennis Jensen would get a gig for sure!
Bernardi isn’t a lawyer so he wouldn’t be shadow AG.
Because Rudd’s inviting them in anyways onboard the HMAS Fairstar.
He promised to “turn back the boats” 1 day before the Federal Election, can anyone give me a list of all these boats he has turned back so far.
Cochetta Ferranti Wells as shadow immigration minister?
Haha… St Kevin said
True.
HMAS Howard
HMAS Nelson
HMAS Turnbull
Toothy, the Pacific War finished in August 1945.
Triton, we know how carbon dioxide increases global temperature. There is no way it could fail to increase global temperature.
I think we should be very careful about where we venture on sufferers of depression.
We all either suffer from depression occasionally or have people near and dear who do. For years talking about it in the open was tabu. Just when we were getting somewhere on getting it out into the open through good folk such as Gallop et al, we start making accusations of people faking it.
What test do you want sufferers to pass for us to take them seriously? Suicide? Resignation? A doctor’s certificate? Politicians are human. That means that some of them will suffer very badly from depression. Most of the rest will suffer from it occasionally. That’s life. There is no need for them to fake it. There is every need for us as a decent society to rally round them and help them.
Has Concetta been to the same eye-training school as Mesma?
Yes depression isn’t very funny……..but Zombies are….hahahahah
BW, in general i agree with your sentiment. But in this Robb case, the co-incidental is just too ………… well lets just say, you have to beat me up to convince me.
Yes, but these could mean the Earth will warm FASTER, not just that it will COOL, or that it isn’t warming at all. Again, you insert these assumptions but only consider them as factors that support your denialism, when someone else could say they are reasons to suspect the scientist’s predictions are conservative.
We do know that increased concentration of CO2 has an impact on plant life including algae, but demonstrate for us that this impact on algae also has an impact on temperature. If you can’t, then you are just speculating (as usual).
So if that could happen, why ISN’T it happening? Why does the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere continue to increase? And why does the average global temperature continue to increase?
Whether isn’t chaotic, it is COMPLEX, just because it is COMPLEX doesn’t mean it is IMPOSSIBLE to make predictions of what has happened, is happening, and what is most likely to happen in the future.
By melting the ice cores and measuring the composition of gases! Watch this video that shows it being done:
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/environment/july-dec09/greenland_10-19.html
The CLIMATE, and the evolution of plants and animals that used different gases!
We know that as the concentration of CO2 increases in the atmosphere so does temperature. This is a scientific fact overwhelmingly supported by evidence.
And you’ve never seen an electron in your life, but does that mean they don’t exist?
It is impossible to perfectly predict the precise location of an electron in an atom. Does that mean lights don’t turn on?
Hmm, Leadership Spill ?
Funny ain’t the word for it. Any sane person would hope that the deniers are right.
I guess on one level the debate comes down to this: a sizeable portion of the people who would know better than the rest of us (climate scientists) think we have a very, very big problem on our hands and, furthermore, that we could be doing something to fix it. Do we (a) do nothing because they might be wrong or (b) do something because they might be right?
Hint: consequences of (a): possible death of some or all life on earth; consequences of (b): it costs us a little bit of money and we develop a bunch of cool new technologies…
I always thought Andrew Robb was a tool, today my view is confirmed further!
Boerwar
I have great sympathy for people who have depression as I have known many. However, the jails are full of depressed people who have gotten caught being arseholes and brought their situation on themselves.
Robb appears to have serious moral failings which are underpinning his emotional problems.
Life often turns out badly when you are a duplicitous back-stabber.
Secret ballot? Cowards.
Oh dear, the Liberals are heckling Bill Shorten!
Pathetic!
Diog. i have decided not to unfriend you
Do you actually understand that there is a difference between being clinically depressed and being a bit sad and unhappy because something bad happened to you?
Hear hear.
Nothing Robb has done or said today has any bearing on whether or not he had depression.
How many politicians (heck anyone for that matter) do you know would admit to depression when they didn’t actually have it?
Time for this debate here to grow up.
Dio @ 328
Yes, it is an interesting issue to sort out. My preferred approach would have been to attack Robb for his manifest failings (other than possibly faking depression) which, really, are more than sufficient unto themselves.
I would have preferred leaving the depression side of things out of it. Not for Robb, but for all the poor bastards out there who are suffering badly and who are still suffering in loneliness and silence. Angling at Robb’s depression, or lack of it, is a game not worth that particular general candle.
HA HA Abbott has just had a complete meltdown in QT!
Why has Turnbull left the chamber again? Someone showed him a note and he bolted.
Abbott auditioning to be opposition leader in the House now!
Oh dear, the Libs are even more of a rabble today!
Maybe they should end QT early and get back to knifing Turnball!
Figuring out how many toilet cubicles the Liberal party will require for all the abstainers?
Both Turnbull and Hockey left the House.
Guys
Now that ABC has finished its one hour, where are you seeing this stuff?
Andrew Robb’s depression is entirely credible. The paranoid schizophrenia of the Coalition’s denialists, on the other hand, is fake. They are just noisy and stupid.
Rudd has ended QT at 2:30 sharp everyday this session, he is letting it run today.
Internal rumblings, individually and collectively?
They’re obviously trying to figure out a strategy.
It seems they want to avoid a secret ballot because it may turn out to be so close that Turnbull’s leadership becomes untenable.
http://webcast.aph.gov.au/livebroadcasting/mediaplayer.aspx?mediaURL=http://webcast.aph.gov.au/livebroadcasting/asx1/hms1v_40K.asx&CaptionFile=d:\inetpub\wwwroot\livebroadcasting\caption1.txt&CaptionTitle=&type=1
boer, here
A-PAC
No, that’s just Joe Hockey.
Ha! Very good!
http://webcast.aph.gov.au/livebroadcasting/asx2/hms1v_100K.asx
My understanding is that the relationship between CO2 and its greenhouse effect is logarithmic, meaning that the higher it goes the less additional greenhouse effect it has. Apparently, the large temperature rises predicted in future are based more on positive feedback (ice melting, so less heat reflectoin, so even more heat absorption and faster ice melting, etc) than on the greenhouse effect itself.
Positive-feedback systems tend to be unstable, since a dip one way or the other leads to either runaway cooling or runaway warming. Yet at present we have neither situation. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen, but it’s a reason to be very sure about what we know and very careful about what it means. This is just one aspect of the complexity of the problem. You’ve got this incredibly complex system that humans have affected in various ways, not just CO2 emissions, so the earth is in a unique state now in many ways.
Everything about the situation screams out CAUTION to me regarding conclusions about what is happening, what will happen, and why.
well said.
Any odds on a leadership spill?
Gusface and ShowsOn
Guess how St Bob and his acolytes will vote:
I actually agree with TTH that blaming Howard for the deaths on SIEV X was unfair and incorrect. The blame for those deaths rests with the people smugglers. The same is true of the deaths in the explosion in April and of the recent deaths of the Sri Lankans.
And Oakeshot is doing today’s MPI!
Damn, why can’t we have a camera in the Liberal Party room?
We don’t need your concern when we have scientists who actually know what they are talking about researching the issue.
Your caution is noted. Meanwhile back in the real world, we have to get on with fixing the problem that we know exists thanks to overwhelming data, evidence, and scientific theorising.
Triton
“I had responded to your points on CO2, not modelling. With a complex system a cautious scientist will not assume that he’s thought of everything that can occur in it. The worst case is that completely unexpected effects will occur so that possibility cannot be dismissed. For example, how do we know the effects of rising CO2 combined with other environmental factors on certain forms of life, say algae? They might flourish and absorb much of the additional CO2. Can any scientist say that will not happen? As you’ve already pointed out, the earth is a chaotic system, so chaotic effects, by nature unpredictable, might occur.”
I did address this point earlier. If you assume there are unknown effects that make AGW not likely, why do you not also assume there are unknown effects that make it more likley?
Yes, anything might happen. However in the geological record we have evidence of what did happen. It is normal for the Earth to be warmer, so why would you assume suddenly the Earth will reposnd in a different way to the ways it responded in the past?
“That is still nowhere near as tangible as a bone. How were the levels of CO2 from ice cores measured? How were the temperatures measured? What are the possible reasons for those levels and temperatures? Could there have been other factors that independently increased CO2 and temperature? You don’t need to ask such questions when you are holding a bone in your hand.”
Ummm no, because just holding a bone in your hand doesn’t tell you it’s a dinosaur. You need to do tests etc.
Also the methods for how they calculate the CO2 from ice cores is well documented (there are bubbles in the ice) – similar methods are used in fluid inclusion analysis in geology that’s used to work out the composition of parent magmas for igneous rocks.
“How were the temperatures measured? ”
This is calculated from delta O18 isotope anomaly.
“don’t need to ask such questions when you are holding a bone in your hand”
You need to do isotope studies of the rock the bone was found in. You need to re-assemble the bones correctly. You need to look at nearby bones to try and recreate the paleoenvironment. You need to work out the paleoclimate from geological evidence. There is a whole range of things to study before you can talk about what sort of dinosaur it is.
Triton the details are available for study. If you want to learn about it, take some time and get reading.
Here’s the live stream:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJMxGFco57Y&feature=PlayList&p=CD9EEF67622A6947&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=27
Gusface and ShowsOn
Thank you for links
Triton, you say that it is your ‘understanding’ that there is a logarithmic relationship between carbon dioxide and its greenhouse effect.
What is that understanding based on?
Well if Samantha Maiden’s information is correct, and Joe Hockey is on the record as refusing demands for a secret ballot, saying people who are losing an argument seek to change the rules, then the spill could be on.
I thought you meant this one
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ynjIoymWHvU
But my thought when he said that was that he is paranoid that if everyone is given the chance to vote anonymously, then some could switch making the final decision an extremely close result. If only 55% of the partyroom support the final decision, then Turnbull is doomed.
Patrick
Yes I do. Probably more than you. I actually treat patients with these problems.
Are you familiar with the term “reactive depression”?
Triton
“My understanding is that the relationship between CO2 and its greenhouse effect is logarithmic, meaning that the higher it goes the less additional greenhouse effect it has. Apparently, the large temperature rises predicted in future are based more on positive feedback (ice melting, so less heat reflectoin, so even more heat absorption and faster ice melting, etc) than on the greenhouse effect itself.
Positive-feedback systems tend to be unstable, since a dip one way or the other leads to either runaway cooling or runaway warming. Yet at present we have neither situation.”
This sounds largely correct to me. The effect, per doubling, of CO2 levels, solely from the CO2, is about 1 – 1.5 degrees per doubling.
The feedbacks are part of the Greenhouse Effect though, not separate from it. These are all simply physical constraints in the modelling.
The instability you write of is observed in the geological evidence. The Earth swings between an Ice House and Hot House, they seem to be the stable states. We don’t want to get to a Hot House – all our feed animals and crops will likely become extinct.
A secret ballot would allow members of shadow cabinet to vote against the deal the agreed to earlier today.
Turnball needs a two thirds majority?
I doubt he’ll get that!
Methinks we might have a leadership spill at 9 AM tomorrow!
Gosh I hope a right wing sceptic takes over, that guarantees them a good 3 terms more in opposition, at least!
Hmm,
Gus, did you deliberately post the link because of the muted audio ?
Does he need a two-thirds majority? Or is that just what they think they’ve got?
From Freoccokster:
That would be pointless. He supports the Turnbull position.
Frank
No but try this one
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JN5Mqr6tRlw&feature=related
No. but just think about it, if the final decision is determined by 3 MPs, then the party is split down the middle.
It’s not a competition, I’m sure we both know a bit about it.
So do you treat these patients of yours by telling them they are “arseholes” who have “brought it upon themselves”?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7EbeqPynF2s The ALP will be watching this tonight. I trust we should all get aquainted after the party room meeting
Speers is getting desperate. He has delusions of grandeur. Heard him say earlier that the Libs have to have a decision for the media before the 6 pm news. So now the media and their flippin’ news services are more important than pollies taking the effort to get a decision. Who cares if they don’t get it before 6pm – we’ve always got the online news later.
24/11.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Akoukq5DvAE
Assuming the deal doesn’t get through the Coalition partyroom and Turnball is rolled, should Rudd rip the whole thing up and either 1) keep it as a DD trigger, to use when he sees fit, or 2) Negotiate much bigger targets with the Greens, put that to the Senate and then hope he can snag 2 or 3 coalition defections?
http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/next-two-hours-could-seal-malcolm-turnbulls-fate/
ShowsOn @ 372 – he’s a pollie in Opposition. He’ll support himself.
via Twitter from Danielle Cronin – Wish had telescopic vision – Turnbull got a note at 3.45pm during #QT, then looked like someone who just learned the family pet died.
What I meant was that wouldn’t resolve the problem.
If Turnbull can get this through the partyroom then he will remain leader. If the deniers some how sink the policy, then one of them will become leader, most likely Abbott.
384 – Ah. Gotcha now
Julie Bishop now opposes the CPRS deal and is supporting Abbott for the leadership?
That’s probably her only chance of remaining Deputy Leader in the long term.
“It could go into the evening – imperiling Malcolm Turnbull’s end of year drinks for the press gallery, which people here are getting a bit worried about.”
Yeah, but if Turnbull gets rolled, the press will be a little too busy for drinkies.
Or, end-of-year drinks will become an impromptu retirement party.
ShowsOn: A leadership team of Abbott and Julie Bishop?
Forgive me while I collapse in laughter!
Robb said he’d be taking at least three months off work. It hasn’t been nearly that long since he resigned his shadow portfolio and left. He’s faking it.
If anyone should be insulted, it’s the genuine depression sufferers, and by Robb not those who pick him for a fraud.
Wouldn’t it actually be good for Turnbull if there was a leadership spill?
He would win the leadership spill, then as soon as he does the party would have to support his position on the CPRS.
I think the Liberals may compromise by asking the government for ONE more populist measure. They will say they want, say, petrol excluded FOREVER from the CPRS and that if the government doesn’t support it they will block it. They will do this to try to get public support for their position by running a scare campaign on petrol prices.
Of course the Treasury predicts that by 2020 only 55% of cars will use petrol, the rest will use electricity.
Typical journos, the very future of the Liberal Party is being decided, and all they care about is getting full of grog tonight!
They’re both deniers aren’t they?
There’d be at least 2 vacancies to fill in shadow cabinet: Turnball, and MacFarlane!
I suppose they’d elevate Alex Hawke and claim this represented renewal!
I can’t see Greg Hunt wanting to serve on the front bench of a leader who is a denier.
Robb took time off starting 19 September 2009.
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/robb-steps-down-to-deal-with-depression-20090919-fvmn.html
That makes it 66 days today.
It sounds like they want Robb to be leader!
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/ets-deal-not-good-enough-says-robb-20091124-jcgb.html
Albanese predicted in parliament over 2 months ago that today would be Turnbull’s day of reckoning. I don’t know if he has a crystal ball but he is spot on.
Abbott would try very hard to keep Hunt on board, to keep up the pretence of party unity! Dumping Hunt, Bruce Bilson and Tony Smith would be a bad look, especially if nutbags like Jensen get promoted instead!
RewiL – thanks for 151.
Yeah, it wouldn’t be a good look to have all your most sensible people on the back bench.
For Melbourne bludgers.
Patrick
I explain that they have reactive depression.
About half the time he said he’d be out of circulation for.
The diplomacy exhibited by Rudd and Smith is paying off:
The Search for the Grolar Bear
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/24/2751425.htm
Which naturally leads to the question, which species could humans interbreed with in order to survive cataclysmic climate change?
I open the floor to suggestions…
Turns out some guy has discovered that Charles manson is his biological father.
Wisconsin Tourist Federation! I think Charlie has another son in Townsville!!
Why would Greg Hunt belittle himself if a denier takes over as leader. Any policy he might deliver could be seen in the Howard ‘why bother – nothing’s going to happen’ camp.
Pass.
Bark beetles. They’re lovin’ it.
you are a very very bad person Trubbell
Macfarlane, Hunt and Turnbull would all be worthy Government international appointments. That would bleed the Opposition of what little intellectual talent it has and leave the hard-right trogs more isolated than ever.
Win win.
Steve K, you’re no fun.
After all, it’s all sanctioned by Cole Porter. Apparently, if bears do it, and, potentially, bees and educated fleas do it, then it’s ok for us.
BB
The time frame of 3 months or whatever would have been a conservative guess. It’s quite common for the medications to work more quickly than that. Two months is quite a common time for get back to work.
Is that like Scientology’s belief that people have a “reactive mind” that must be fixed via hundreds of thousands of dollars of Scientology counseling?
The hilarious thing about Scientology is that it is completely anti-psychiatry, even though many of the terms used in Scientology were taken by Hubbard from psychiatry (and in some cases psychoanalysis).
I recall in the Laurie Oakes piece announcing his move to the back bench that he said he started taking medication that made him feel even worse.
I have no idea why many here have turned into Macfarlane fans? Sure he may be a good guy, but he is extremely conservative, and all through the Howard government was one of the leading climate change deniers who didn’t think we should do anything.
Having said that, I do agree with Macfarlane that clean coal is just a big white elephant that will take decades to bare any fruit.
Wilson Tuckey has moved a spill.
tuckey moves leadership spill
The other species would have to have 46 chromosomes. We’re the only primates with 46 (all the rest have 48).
The candidates are:
I’m just waiting for someone to make a joke about the third on the list.
That’s quite common too. You may need to try a few different ones before one suits the patient.
LOL! And Denis Jensen is the seconder on a Tuckey / Jensen denial leadership ticket?
ITS ON
A song for the Liberal Party Room.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJyRvUwIXh8
Speers says the spill motion is likely to be defeated.
If the CPBR gets up, Macfarlane will have been one of the critical factors.
Macfarlane is one of Australia’s most experienced international negotiators. Give him his TOR and his negotiating thresholds, and off he goes and delivers.
On where? Who’s providing the news?
So was that the note Turnbull received during Q.T.?
The old nutcase uncle is moving a leadership spill.
That was why he left the House in a hurry? and then Turnbull was after him. The plot gets thicken.
If that’s the case that means Turnbull will win, the partyroom will vote to support the deal.
I said it ages ago, the only way for the Liberals to oppose the CPRS is to first get rid of Turnbull.
24/11 rules, OK?
Will Abbott have the guts to nominate? Or is it Andrews?
You wouldn’t call a spill if you didn’t have the numbers. Turnbull would win and his leadership would just be reaffirmed.
Tuckey’s probably too thick to realise that.
This is even better than Grechy Folly.
With GMO technology it is not necessary, or even desirable, for humans to ‘mate’ with a single other species.
The most sensible thing to do would be to isolate the more useful human genes (ie the ones that have nothing at all to do with generating AGW) and splice them with the DNA of ecological winners such as bark beetles, flies and cockroaches.
John howard has been spotted boarding a flight at syd airport
:0
just kidding,maybe
Keating didn’t have the numbers first time ’round.
From Fake Wilson:
Interesting times, Malcolm?
Now, who was it said “Game on!”? Lady Janet, wasn’t it?
If there is no spill why is there a seconder?
Does Wilson have a cat?
So who is sending text messages to speers from inside the meeting?
Boring!! Spill! Spill! Spill!
Not after today.
Be wary of any media reports about the Coaliton meeting until after its finished
Example: ABC’s headline earlier today:
Now, the ABC’s headline after what turned out to be an uneventful caucus meeting is: [Rees emerges from caucus meeting unscathed]
vp, I think that seconder was ShowsOn’s mischief making.
the member for twittering is my guess
Diogenes @ 419
‘Mountin Beaver’ screams out for a little interspecies rumpy pumpy, don’t you think?
Awww
Sorry!
Boer,
No, you’re thinking of Schroedinger. Malcolm is in much the same position as S’s cat: you don’t know whether he is dead or alive until you open the box.
Sorry, here’s the link for the post meeting report:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/24/2752010.htm
Can humans interbreed with the great apes?
Desicion soon ?
GB
Have you guys got a secret mike in there or something? How come all this is getting out?
Hemingway, clearly the big news from that story is that Sydney will be broadcasting the World Cup live next year.
Psephos, apparently we can’t. Not so great after all, it turns out.
Someone is texting from the party room. It happens.
Psephos
As is, no.
What would be quite easy technically would be to splice genes from Homo sapiens (misnomer) into those of the great apes. Or vice versa.
The real difficulty would be getting this sort of stuff past the ethics committees.
Ar, TTH, if you’d been listening to today’s QT you’d have heard all the stats re how many “disruptions” there have been to planned boat trips … and a whole lot more. As you stated, ‘He [Rudd] promised to “turn back the boats” 1 day before the Federal Election” – notice that:
1. Rudd selected the not “a”, or “each/every”, or any specific number or percentage, or anything else; nor did he modify or limit the in any way.
1.1. Well, hey! If you check available stats (Rudd read them in the Reps QT today; therefore available on ABC website; and will soon appear in Hansard – also on-line) you’ll know exactly how boat trips have been “disrupted”; i.e., have not completed their voyage; i.e. have either been “turned back”, or “intercepted”, some before departure.
2. On 23/11/07 (the date you gave), Rudd did not specify how these “disruptions” would be managed – no “by the Australian navy”, or “by diplomatic efforts”, or “by other means”, or by one or more of any number of means – therefore, all options for “turning back” the boats are completely open to him; so,
2.2 Given the number of “disruptions” achieved – outlined in today’s QT (avaiable as per 1.1 above ) – I’d say that Rudd has met that election promise …
That you (or members of the Opposition and/or Opposition supporters) may have added to his words (i.e. inferred) specifications/ modifications which he did not make, in no way binds him to meet your interpretations, accidental or deliberate, of what he did say.
BTW 1: Your propensity for hurting yourself (self-harm) ought to worry those who care about you.
BTW 2: I’m having a bet with OH on which form of argumentum ad hominem and/or other typically Lenin-approved (for debating purposes) logical fallacy/ fallacies you select to reply. OH doesn’t think a smart blogger would try “poisoning the well” or “strawman” again. Given there are a sting of ad hominem& Lenin-approved (& for that matter, C16-17 SJ approved) alternatives available, we await your choice.
No. And don’t TRY.
Diog, you got company, David Speers of Shynews.
He got two wRONgs this afternoon:
1. Excitedly declared at 1:45pm that QT was postponed until 4pm for the Libs to stop bashing each other.
2. Now, declared that Mad Uncle has moved a spill.
Is he related to you?
How is it known that a human sperm can’t fertilise an orang utan or gorilla egg, or vice versa?
First Hand experience?
[Have you guys got a secret mike in there or something? How come all this is getting out?
There's probably a bunch of reporters standing outside the door. I wouldn't be surprised if they can over hear what the speakers are saying.
I agree with Psephos #558, with addendum that some cunning planners might have keyed in outsiders’ phone numbers, pressed call, and open the whole debate to whom/what ever can hear it – far more subtle that texting & so risking “phone rage”.
I reckon there’s an open mobile phone in the room.
Our fush & Chup Cuz tried with sheepen.
Has Kevin Andrews taken over yet?
*shakes head* what is the Liberal Party coming to.
Why doesnt Howie step in and slam some heads together???
Psephos, Diogenes says it’s to do with chromosomes.
On the previous page you’ll see a list of potential candidates.
Someone probably did an experiment.
Unlike other great apes that have 48 chromosomes, we only have 46 chromosomes because our chromosome 2 is actually two old chromosomes that at some stage in human evolution fused to make 1 new chromosome. The new chromosome still has parts of the old chromosomes attached to it.
http://www.evolutionpages.com/chromosome_2.htm
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26394707-5005962,00.html
I wonder who specifically Sheehan referred to when he said: “The Labor left regards the carbon trading scheme as a largely meaningless piece of churn and complexity in support of a meagre carbon reduction target that sends the wrong signals to consumers or polluters.”
Whoever they are should give up on Kevin Rudd’s ‘big tent’ approach and defect to the Greens.
So the 10 early news starts and the Coaltion still doesn’t have a policy.
They have had ALL YEAR to figure out what to do about this, it is shocking that it has come down to the very last partyroom meeting over the year.
I would suggest the more clever members of the Government, part of the “left” and in inner-city seats.
Does anyone know the Liberal rules for leadership spills?
Is it just one to move the motion and one to second it? Or do you need like 10% of the partyroom?
Skynews or David Speers has no credibility left after the diabolical reporting this afternoon.
I doubt this issue is reconcilable within the Liberal party. I wonder if we’ll see the Libs get torn apart over it or if it’ll just sink them to the lowest of the lows much like what happened within the ALP in 2001 over asylum seekers, allowing the ascendancy of Latham to occur. Could Kevin Andrews be the Liberals’ Mark Latham?
A majority on a show of hands, according to David Penberthy.
http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/next-two-hours-could-seal-malcolm-turnbulls-fate/
Stalin organized a bit of a trial back in the 1920′s using a scientist with a lot of ‘ivans’ in his name.
It did not work.
They already have one right now, Malcolm Turnbull.
But we can with porpoises.
See Finn’s avatar. Plus some of his posts combine human rationality with dolphin intuition.
Where you going with this Psephos? Island of Dr Mauro? It’s called DNA and chromosomes they don’t match. Species= In order to be able to produce fertile offspring in a natural environment. Hence if cross a donkey with a horse you get a mule which is sterile- no different species.
Island of Dr Mauro= Liberal Party Room….what is the law? Who broke the law?
Island of Dr Mauro
Dr Moreau
Glen said @ 469
A bit like Moe used to do with the other two Stooges – Larry and Curly (or Shemp)
Nyiak, nyaik, nyaik!
Ehhh.. I would never discount Malcolm Turnbull until the day he loses Wentworth. One thing about that man: he’s got persistence.
I bet he thinks a bit of time in the political wilderness would do him – and the Liberals – good. Some sacrificial lamb will need to lead the Liberals to a loss at the next election and it doesn’t need to be MT.
I knew I had it wrong Gus damn spelling errors plaguing me all day
What is he smoking?
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/nothing-wrong-with-libs-disunity-on-climate-change-20091124-jezn.html
Of course there may not need to be a spill. If the NO camp win then Turnbull will resign and an election for a new leader will take place.
St Bob can have Heavie Kevvie
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/6511326/cfmeu-quits-labor-party/
I think Turnbull has the numbers to get this through but he is just letting all the deniers speak so they can’t argue that they were shafted without having a say.
However, if it really is looking like a tight final vote, Turnbull should just say that EVERYONE can have a conscience vote. Surely 7 out of 32 Liberal Senators would support it, and then it goes through.
If Turnbull gives everyone a conscience vote, then it would be impossible for the deniers to say that he refused to take into account their opinion.
So there are some sane people in a major political party in this country after all. If only they had the guts to stand up for common sense and their beliefs.
An ETS SHOULD COST EVERYONE MORE TO PRODUCE CARBON DIOXIDE. THAT IS THE WHOLE POINT. It has no purpose if you are going to “compensate” everyone who might be affected.
PS: TTH, do read SteveK @ #404. Here, I’ll even turn the URL into a link for you Sri Lanka navy seizes 60 boat people
Seems Oz’s very recent political/diplomatic talks with Sri Lankan authorities are paying off!
Frank, That’s got to be a good news story for the WA ALP doesn’t it? Reynolds is poison.
Patrick,
How bloody hard is it turning out to be to get THIS ETS through parliament?
BW, I never had sex with that woman. Only
http://www.dolphinworld.org/stories/images/dolphin_cove_kiss.JPG
Sage advice:
There was an old Scot named McTavish,
Who attempted an anthropoid ravish.
But the object of rape was the wrong sex of ape,
And the anthropoid ravished McTavish.
THIS IS TAKING TOO LONG!
All Turnbull has to do is say that everyone gets a conscience vote! If he says that then it will easily pass the Senate, and the government controls the House so he has no problem to worry about there.
Psephos
The great apes have 48 chromosomes so they are a no go. However Rattus Rattus has 46, same as us.
ABC Online is still reporting numbers according to those who’ve already spoken as evenly split, with ‘dozens’ yet to have a turn.
Yep, Heavy Kevvie have been a thorn in our side and this would blunt any liberal scare campaign – now if St Bob welcomes him on the other hand…..
All this on the 2nd anniversary of the Rudd government’s election! 24ct GOLD!
The fact that humans with 46 chromosomes descend from ancestors with 48 illustrates the fact that mismatch of chromosome numbers does not make interbreeding impossible. Other contemporary examples are known. Mismatch of chromosome numbers may make interbreeding harder but by itself it definitely doesn’t make interbreeding impossible.
So if at first you don’t succeed, try, try again?
I see certain logistic difficulties in trying to interbreed with a rat.
10 News had a shot of Andrew Robb outside the partyroom meeting before it broke up for question time. He said that if the opposition supports the amended CPRS then “the country will have real problems.”
Paul Bongiorno pointed out that normally the Liberal partyroom doesn’t do any formal vote of any sort. It is all left up to the leader to determine what the patrtyroom consensus is (obviously a policy to give the leader some wiggle room when the partyroom is closely divided).
455 – Dio, I heard it on Sky.
Probably depends which is which gender…
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,26393418-421,00.html
Malcolm’s to the left,Malcolm’s to the right, but still the brave 500 rode on
Do you mean like horse + donkey = mule?
The difference is that mules are sterile. Whereas most humans aren’t, so there must’ve been a different mechanism for us to evolve 23 chromosome pairs.
492 …
“An ETS SHOULD COST EVERYONE MORE TO PRODUCE CARBON DIOXIDE. THAT IS THE WHOLE POINT. It has no purpose if you are going to “compensate” everyone who might be affected.”
I agree with the first two sentences but the third suggests a misunderstanding of compensation.
If people do get compensation, but producing CO2 costs more then they are being encouraged to spend money on alternatives to polluting. Eg, to buy energy produced by renewables, or to invest in renewable energy infrastructure. This applies just as much to a householder (who will spend their compensation money on whatever energy sources are cheaper after the ETS is imposed) as to a shareholder in coal power stations who will invest their money in whatever infrastructure is likely to be profitable in the future.
Judging by comments on blogs across the political spectrum from rightwing denialists to greens their is a lot of misunderstanding of how compensation plus directed taxation can bring about major societal change.
Not with the giant rat of PNG:
http://smithsonianscience.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/BB193016@LOST-LAND-OF-THE-V.jpg
boerwar@360:
Me too, much appreciated.
Psephos
Stalin tried to interbreed humans and monkeys. It didn’t work.
We have interbred with Neanderthals though. They are to only ones so far. You can see examples every day.
http://www.slate.com/id/2153600/
Dr Good – but why do you need the compensation element? At the end of the day the government is just shuffling money (from tax) around, not creating new money. So my money goes to people like the operators of Loy Yang coal power plant. How is this better than just making the power plant more expensive to operate and leaving my money in my pocket? That way if some smart company comes up with cheapish renewable power, I can just give the money to them – they will be better able to compete thanks to not producing CO2 themselves and thereby avoiding the penalty.
Giving the money to the polluting industry just allows them to prolong their polluting activity by absorbing the direct impact of the scheme.
I read at Wikipedia that dogs and wolves can interbreed, but dogs and foxes cannot.
Stalin really was out there, wasn’t he?
I can’t understand why he didn’t want this army to be flying half-men, half-monkeys from the Wizard of Oz.
The man just didn’t have vision.
Psephos
The difference between a dog and a fox is one drink. boom boom.
Too right, Psephos. Damn hard to catch aren’t they?
Weren’t the offspring sterile though? I have read that one reason why Homo sapiens took over from Neathderthals so quickly was because we must’ve realised pretty quickly that it was pointless breeding with Neanderthal because our offspring would’ve been sterile. I read that in this book:
http://www.amazon.com/Mind-Cave-Consciousness-Origins-Art/dp/0500284652/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1259045402&sr=8-1
People are too quick to jump to conspiracy theories. The most likely answer is that Robb has depression.
Psephos all the way back at 126, so long ago it’s probably no longer relevant
Not sure if you were asking a genuine question, or if you were having a dig at me, but I’ll naively assume it was the former. I’m a Nanotechnologist according to my degree, but I’m mainly involved in organic photochemistry.
Yes Frank, Unions are icreasingly aware that unions are better served by the Greens than by the ALP. There is a lot more of this to come.
But the CFMEU aren’t known as lovers of Tree Huggers
I agree.
That and the fact that he’s a tool.
Robb has gone from being Shadow Minister Assisting the Leader on Climate Change to backbencher not assisting the Leader on anything.
His depression is irrelevant.
Ten News Adelaide just reported that the state opposition won’t support a parliamentary inquriy into Rann’s sex life. AND that Chantelois is currently trying to get out of the contract she signed with Channel 7. Apparently she has another 12 days left on the contract to provide them with exclusive details, but now she wants out.
What could that mean? Say more and more things to satisfy the evening news?
how the hell did we get onto interbreeding?????
Decry my sentiments all you like, but I’m suspicious of Robb.
He went public with his depression just before the bargaining period with the government started. When negotiations ended, like a miracle out he comes again to naysay.
A deeply conservative fuddy-duddy, he’d have had no bar of an ETS, or doing a deal with the government.
So he begged off sick and got off the hook.
No doubt he does have depression. But I believe he used going public with his illness to extricate himself from what would have been an intolerable situation – negotiating with the government on something with which he vehemently disagrees.
It all just seems too convenient.
Also, I’m inclined to apply the “WorkChoices Test” to his situation. Nothing could be more justified than applying the WorkChoices Test to a Liberal, for it is their bedrock belief.
Under the WCs philosophy, the benefit of the doubt is always with the employer. In other words, the employee is presumed guilty until proven innocent.
So, with the WCs Test applied to Robb as the “employee”, then he must be presumed to have used his illness to malinger and avoid unpleasant duties.
You can make of that what you will.
Dunno, I think Steve K started it.
Trying to fathom the reasons the Liberal front bench is so hopeless ?
Not at all, I actually wanted to know. Thanks for telling me.
I read a really scary novel by Michael Crichton (I think) about nanotechnological bugs taking over the world.
LOL.
That’s what I get for standing back and minding my own business.
Yep, it was by Crichton.
Yes it was Crichton. The book is called ‘Prey’. Scientifically not too far away from being plausible. Based on some ideas first spouted by Richard Feynman (the grand-daddy of nanotechnology) and K. Eric Drexler. Just as importantly, a pretty good read.
Dont forget Robb the chief Liberal politburo hack for many many years before he turned into the Google Assassin and now the Turnbull Assassin. Depression or no depression, no sympathy.
http://blogs.abc.net.au/thepollvault/2007/11/google-assassin.html
Has the leak in the Liberal party room been plugged? There seems a dearth of new gossip.
Glen went
Because much of whats going on is down to howard for refusing to allow an orderly
transition to costello. Indeed howard was determined to ensure costello never got the job.
I hope this is all ashes in howards mouth. But not likely, he was never responsible for any downside. Only ever victories did he put his name to.
And all of this 2 years to the day that aussie voters checked howard out.
Great stuff !
The Press Gallery have all gone to Malcolm’s drinks party – without him. Priorities – drinks or news.
The NatLibs are all screwed. At the moment they’re trying to work out who is left-threaded and who is right-threaded.
I can report that most of the Gallery in standing around on the lawn looking bored and waiting for something to happen.
They’d be having more fun if someone started talking about interbreeding.
Why don’t you head down and start them off with great apes and Joe Stalin?
Has anyone else dared to listen to talkback radio this afternoon? You’d be forgiven for thinking that the end of the world is nigh if the CPRS gets passed by the Senate.
Have Feilding or X made any comments on the CPRS deal?
In other news:
‘Fishermen to sue over Timor oil spill’ (probably should be Timor Sea oil spill)
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/24/2752314.htm?section=justin
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2009/s2741364.htm
Patrick 515
In general you want the ETS (or any such mechanism)
to be revenue neutral: it is not supposed to be a way of getting money out or in
to the economy. By compensating people with the funds that are raised by
the sale of permits, people will have funds to spend on the rather large amount
of investment in new infrastructure that will be needed to turn the economy around.
Also, you do not want the poor to suffer because they have to pay more for energy from solar panels or the grid etc.
But I agree that you you don’t need all of the compensation that is currently on offer,
if the government had control of the senate they would not need this much.
There was interesting bit in Richard Dawkin’s new book about a fox breeding program in the former USSR. The more they selectively bred the ‘wild’ out of each generation, the more the next generation developed dog like characteristics.
Although it also say dogs evolved purely from wolves.
Psephos is your ape-man digression an attempt to highlight similarities between AGW denial and evolution denial?
Fielding is too busy shoring up Liberal preferences for the DD election!
It looks like 100,000 students will be deprived of scholarships next year, because of the Coalition & that tool Fielding!
SBS news showed fielding holding up a map of Victoria (no idea why) and said he wants the ETS vote deferred
It’s gold. Some highlights:
– the caller (seriously) calling for a people’s revolution
– the increased proportion of articulate well educated sounding 20 something males calling up against the CRPS
– the caller suggesting the National’s should run candidates in as many seats as possible and his belief that if ‘Mr Joyce’ ran in one, he could well be the next PM
– numerous ‘lifelong Liberal supporters’ who will never vote Liberal again (who will they vote for then?)
I’ve been told by a friend who works at Centrelink that they were told today that the training for the new Youth Allowance laws will not happen this week.
Check the comments at the end of this story at the ABC site ..
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/24/2751855.htm
A lot of right-wingers getting posted!
I submitted two posts; neither published.
More likely the coalition would lose 20 seats in the house because of a split conservative vote.
julie_posetti It’s on, it’s off, it’s on… I’m getting dizzy! RT @samanthamaiden its a cliffhanger in the libs partyroom: 33 all
This party meeting is high farce, it does not matter what they decide – if 7 Lib Senators vote for the CPRS it passes.
So they are arguing about what?
Fielding and Xenophon have both said today they are still opposed to the bill.
No, I was just curious.
Tuckey to call for a leadership spill on Thursday if Turnbull doesn’t allow a secret ballot:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,26394707-29277,00.html
Except Fielding wants to delay the vote until February while Xenophon wants it this week.
This is actually important because it means a vote on delaying the bill would be tied even if the Nats and Libs all support it.
That is so funny – scaredy cats!!
I agree. Why doesn’t Turnbull just say that everyone can have a conscience vote? Surely 7 out of the 32 Lib Senators would vote for it letting it pass, while giving all the deniers the free option to vote anyway they want (even if they are on the front bench).
I think Turnbull is just going out of his way to let ALL the deniers speak so that none of them can argue that they were shafted when he finally adopts the position of supporting the amended bills.
what? no inter breeding between the rats, leeches and whistling dogs of MSM.
SO
Chantelois says she wants out of her Ch 7 contract so she can talk “more widely” to members of the media, not just Ch 7. Dunno what to make of that. Prob not much.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26382226-5006301,00.html
Loving the Senate: Kim Carr and Bob Brown getting stuck into Brett Mason!
Why can’t she wait 12 more days?
She got a better offer from 60 Minutes?
Pri(mate)-curious?
Chantelois must have got a better $$$$$$$ offer than what 7 are paying her
Evan
you beat me to it
Maybe brought on by the Coalition’s political Darwinism and too much viewing of tributes to mark CD’s birth’s bi-centenary & The Book’s sesquicentenary?
WA Labor might be pleased to see Kevin Reynolds go but can they afford to lose the money that comes from the union affiliation fees? Wouldn’t think so from the way they are travelling at present.
The Press Gallery must be getting thirsty by now.
Shanghai stock market has fallen over by 3.4% in late arvo trade for some reason
Can I just point out that the Government’s “we need this legislated before Copenhagen” has working out PERFECTLY.
I didn’t think it would create this much turmoil.
Get orf it! Compact Discs aren’t 200 years old!
The biggest milk producer announced they actually make white paint?
Amigo, she got offers from Jerry and Oprah, afterall she’s a yankee lust after fame.
Karen Middleton on SBS:
Finns
She’d better hurry, Oprah is retiring. Jerry would be more her style anyway
C’mon, ShowsOn, you mean you don’t know I have a Tardis?
Did Ch7 show anything about Rann on TT. Heard they squibbed it last night after Riley saying they had stuff for the whole week. Seems they might now be worried about being in breach of the proceedings on Dec. 7 re the husband.
Pesphos – if you were so inclined you could go down and give the dear little journos a little drinkie. They must be close to dehydration having to wait so long for Malcolm.
That’s 300 years old?
Apparently they showed stuff on Today Tonight in NSW but not in South Australia.
This whole ‘affair’ is starting to stink. I agree with VexNews, I think Chantelois ex-husband told her to do this so he can have some money, and maybe get back at Rann who he obviously deeply hates:
http://www.vexnews.com/news/7412/stalker-premier-ranns-assailant-is-holding-the-strings-in-this-latest-slime-attack/
Curious then..
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-11/20/content_12507902.htm
Dont you mean turn the fire hose on em
Malcolm needs Lucy in there to whip those recalcitrant miserable mices into pieces.
With all this talk about Kevin Andrews, I’d like to ask again a simple question. Which Liberal leader is mostly likely to be electoral suicide (for the Liberals)? And why? Reference to the voting public and actual argument appreciated.
And before you say it again, yes this country does need an intelligent, constructive opposition, but I fear that before the Liberal Party can become one, it has to lose its dinosaurs. And a rip snorting, in-no-uncertain-terms electoral annihilation may be just the medicine. Yes, I’m aware that sadly, the dinosaurs tend to occupy the safer seats, but I think they need a real kick up the ass before they realise just how out of touch they have been and start repopulating the party with moderates.
I said before the last election, that the next Liberal PM hasn’t joined the party yet. I’m still sticking to that opinion.
The liberals should not support this turkey of a CPRS. It will do nothing about climate change.
And i do not care if the Liberals are arguing over this. Both parties are in denial simple.
Handing out billions to electricity companies and to businesses whose electricity prices increase, and why and for what purpose, how will businesses seek cheaper forms of electricity if their prices rise are being compensated, this is a pathetic scheme and Bernard Keane on Crikey is correct.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/11/24/households-bail-out-business-on-dud-cprs/
Do you mean realistic leader? Or unrealistic?
Unrealistic – Tuckey, he is nuts.
Realistic – Abbott, he is slightly less nuts.
Gee whiz! what exactly are those jurnos doing? Anyone would think it was SA!
julie_posetti A Clayton’s victory? RT @1petermartin It’s over. Hearing it was 40-33 against him but he declared victory without a vote.
WHAT? How can he do that?
If he does that and there is a leadership spill on Thursday surely he will lose it.
Marky
The Wongster and Chainsaw love the new CPRS. The debate is over.
Thomas Paine
Report on the requirement for big Chinese to re-equitise…which could be nasty if asset prices go south…
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=aRmJ2Kl8coOA
Quite a bit of concern that super low US interest rates are causing asset price bubbles in Asia – amongst other things, leading to deteriorating asset quality in banks
Hmm.. I’m first and foremost interested in how they’re likely to be perceived (and what skills they might have) out in voter land.
I’m also interested to know if there’s any moderates left that have any chance of the top spot.
I really meant worse, Gusface, but I was trying to be ladylike. lol.
Cud Chewer
“Which Liberal leader is mostly likely to be electoral suicide (for the Liberals)? And why?”
Wilson Tuckey… Becuase he is insane
“Reference to the voting public”
Me, I am part of the voting public
“actual argument appreciated.”
You’re wrong! No, wait, that’s just contradiction…
Rabble rules – there was never going to be a vote.
According to Bernard Keane the partyroom meeting will continue at 8 PM!
I think they are going to announce their policy during the last 5 minutes of Lateline.
I hate to admit it, but there is a segment of the community that would actually like Tuckey.
It seems that Turnbull is trying to avoid a vote because he knows a vote has the potential of ending his leadership.
Turnbull has staged a coup against his own partyroom!
Turnbull’s clayton victory.
SO
There’s plenty on TDT in SA tonight. They’re showing the SMS records and backing the story to the hilt.
Nothing really new though. They attacked Vexnews.
They sank the boot into Labor by showing Tim Gartrell saying that even if it comes out that Rann has been lying that he shouldn’t resign. That wasn’t a good look.
God I’d love to be a fly on the wall at that meeting..
Dodgy psuedo science graphs at ten paces!
Instead of thinking about the next five minutes Ruawake how about thinking about the next ten years.
Could speers be wRONg ?
Speers says Turnbull declares partyroom support for ETS. Meeting to reconvene at 8pm
oh dear, is there a Liberal Party left after this fiasco?
SMS records don’t prove anything.
Gatrell is a pollster now, he can say whatever he likes.
Diog, David Speers has superseeded you. he got 3 wRONgs in an afternoon. Move over baby.
MT could call a DD against his party. The new leadership team could be Captain Chaos and General Disarray.
Peter Martin’s Twitter:
Annabel Crabb’s Twitter:
Turnbull waited until the Senators had left the meeting for a division, then declared that he had won without a vote!
So are they going to support it? This is worse than Grech.
Its a dud CPRS, just like we have a dud GST. That happens when the Senate gets involved.
Turnbull is too inexperienced. He needs to step down and let someone else take over the reigns.
I have a feeling he might be another Howard, and make a big comeback at some future point, but for now he needs to step back and let someone else take over after he has a few more years of politics under his belt.
Samantha Maiden twittering What is going on!!
Is this the worst Opposition party there has been? Surely if the Liberals were a horse, my cat would be eating them by now.
Hmm,
Let me repeat:
ETS = Execute Turnbull Scheme
This is the same Speers who told us the leadership spill was on, isn’t it?
Oh-oh, that sounds like a dare to me.
Sorry – that was me saying ‘what is going on’. They’re all mad and on top of this they’ve preselected Bronwyn Bishop and Ruddock again!!
Unbelievable! It seems that he KNOWS that he can’t win this fair and square so he is just trying to rig it in his favour by using dirty tricks.
If he wants to save his leadership he should say that they all can have a conscience vote!
Speers on Sky says Unclear what will happen at 8pm when Turnbull formally declares the deal
Rather than giving coal based energy producers more money, why not give gas power producers more money to encourage coal power producers to convert to gas?
I am fascinated at what Turnbull will do if he does get rolled. Will he have to resign given that he nailed his colours to the mast (next to the Ute-gate one) on this issue and that party.
They are certainly such a fractious rabble that in no remote sense of the word could they be considered an alternative government.
They can’t even govern themselves!
More likely half his party will declare Turnbull a dill at 8 PM and bring on a leadership ballot on Thursday.
They’ve broken up for an hour for some meatybites.
Why arent you out in your tinnie protecting our continental shelf from marauding hordes?
Just try to imagine Turnbull’s titanic ego, cooped up in the partroom from 10am to 7pm, listening to the climate denialist morons orating. It finally all got too much for the ego, and it burst out, like the alien bursting out of Ellen Ripley’s chest.
David Speers 3 wRONgs so far for the late comers:
1. He declared that QT will be suspended to 4pm to allow Liberals to bash each other to death.
2. He declared there was a spill initiated by Mad Uncle
3. He declared a victory for Turnbull.
Diog, you are sAFe.
That’s making a rather big assumption on their part …
Guy on ABC says that the party room speakers are 60/40 in favour of passing the CPRS EXCLUDING National Party members who are all opposed.
Penny on 7.30 report with Kerry
How good would a Bishop/Andrews ticket be. Or Abbott/Bishop. Or Andrews/Anyone.
I love the Liberal Party.
He’s too busy doing the numbers for Wilson Tuckey’s leadership tilt.
How can Mad Malcolm survive this?
julie_posetti Beeewdeeful! RT @samanthamaiden quote of the day: lib mp when asked if turnbull stomed out “he walked very briskly”
Samantha Maiden’s twitter:
http://twitter.com/samanthamaiden
Psephos, I could imagine that being particularly frustrating for him if he knows that he’s got the numbers and that all the denialists are doing is fulfilling their promise to filibuster.
Amigo, our Penn is like a Cheshire cat.
Penny Wong is sexy when she’s smug.
By saying that all MPs including front benchers can have a conscience vote.
Can the Labor rabble in here explain why Labor MP’s were sweating about this all the way back in early October?
Gee they must have used those magical crystal balls to predict what Mrs Chantelois would claim months later. Come on Labor hacks, it’s not that hard to work out whats been going on.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26162209-5006301,00.html
TTH, don’t change the topic. Your leader and party are failing. Let’s talk more about that.
What do the Liberals stand for on anything? (apart from being hilarious)
Good one Psephos but for the first time I think I feel sorry for Turnbull. They are all fruit loops.
But he has the numbers too narrowly to allow a secret ballot. if he can only win a ballot by say 5 votes, then that ends his leadership.
He is in a terrible position. He has support, but not ENOUGH support.
They will have to come up with a compromise of some sort. They will have to demand even more for the government, and then leave it up to the government to determine whether or not they get a double dissolution trigger.
Two words for you:
Simon Crean
Toothy, the Korean War finished on 27 July, 1953.
I wonder how many vodkas Turnbull is downing at his end of year drinks?
Simon Crean never lost a party room vote. Simon Crean polled better than Malcolm Turnbull. Yes, let’s compare.
Turnbull. Hahahahahahahahaha.
Speers’ no: 4 wRONg?
Sorry, even when Crean was ‘in charge’ Labor never descended this low that they couldn’t agree with a policy.
Kerry O’Brien where are the incentive measures for businesses and people to change their ways? Answer still trying to work it out…
What a joke and a dill, where are those labor backbenchers, where are they?
Samantha Maiden:
CC@602:
As leader of the liberal party?
I’d pay money for it to happen!
Simon Crean realised that he was not cutting it in the job, and resigned with reasonable grace. He is now throughly enjoying himself as a Cabinet minister. I predict with confidence that no such future awaits Turnbull.
Our Penn just cannot take that smile off her face
Leigh, commandeer a jet and organise the canberra Studio
penny is always wONg.
Annabel Crabb:
http://twitter.com/annabelcrabb
Peter Martin
http://twitter.com/1petermartin
What party, I told you I am a swinging voter not a party hack lot a lot of the posters in here.
The Rann thing is delightfully delicious because Ranns past may be just about to catch up with him whether he likes it or not.
Big difference between Turnbull and Simon Crean. Crean never conspired with a mole in the public service using a forged document to attempt to bring down the democratically-elected government.
TTH noone believes you’re a swinging voter. That’s as funny as Turnbull calling himself the lib leader.
Oh Christ.
Here comes the party hacks…
Simon Crean was as popular as a soiled nappy.
Look it up on possum’s website. Crean regularly polled 48-51 tpp on newspoll
Turnbull regularly polls 42-45%.
Yes, let’s compare.
Not only are you a lib, you are innumerate.
Why arent you out in your tinnie (night light equipped) protecting our exclusion zone from boat people
A song for Malcolm:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hjjZ7aM-jng
Pollytics Who tries to dump a leader, *then* figure out what comes next?
LOL
Sammy Maiden reckons Turnbull is a gonner:
I think Turnbull still thinks he can pull this out of the bag and hold a door stop interview at 2 AM saying that the entire coalition is supporting him.
You call that a wedge, Johnnie? THIS is a WEDGE!
Strewth, hasn’t this gone downhill….
Who think we’ll have a new opposition leader my midnight tonight?
It sounds like all hell has broken loose…..
http://www.newspoll.com.au/cgi-bin/polling/display_poll_data.pl?mode=trend&page=continue_results&question_id=3488&url_caller=
Put November 2001 thru December 2003 in here if you don’t believe me TTH.
You can apologise any time you wish.
It will be sad to see Malcolm goes, he has provided the best two nights of politics ever:
1. The Grech Folly
2. Tonight
Has Simon Crean spent a day on the backbench in Govt. or Opposition?
Looks like MT tried to pull a swiftie while his senators went out for a division. When they came back they were NOT happy.
One could say the situation is fluid (the choice of fluids is yours).
Surely Turnbull has known ALL year that this train was headed right for him.
The deniers seem to have realised that in order to block the CPRS they first need to get rid of Turnbull and install one of them as leader. I think that person is Abbott.
He tried to cheat plain and simple! All he has to do is say that everyone can vote however they want, but he will be voting FOR the amended legislation.
Next April Crean will celebrate 20 continuous years on the frontbench. Not quite Bill McMahon’s 21-year record, bit not far off.
Finns,
I prefer the Everly’s original
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hw05j4fc2JI
vp, as long as we dont exchange
Surely MT has had a major brain explosion by claiming victory
It defies logic
It’s nearly 8
Oooh… the suspense
Penberthy on The Punch:
http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/next-two-hours-could-seal-malcolm-turnbulls-fate/
Frank, no prob. Don and Phil forever.
Lets all head to canberra and get pissed outside the party room and then laugh as the libs come out
surely this cannot get more Monty Pythonish
Can it?
I’m a swinging voter as much as you are a Labor Party hack. Thats alot.
Finns,
I thought interbreeding wasn’t being discussed any more?
Crean’s first speech in parliament was introducing a bill. From memory he was Minister for Transport and Regional Development.
Wonder what Brian Lohgnane is saying to Malcolm – stay or go?
I wonder if Turnbull will create havoc for the new leader before he’s through with the Liberal party.
*sigh* Every time I see Penny talk I think to myself, what a wonderful world.
Can the “unbiased” voters in here tell me how many times they have voted for an opposing party in their lives.
And no, switching between Labor and Green doesn’t count, i’m talking switching between Labor to Lib or Lib back to Labor.
Andrew Bolt:
Gus, you are too kind. they aint got the class to be Pythonish. it’s more the keystone cops.
He will cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war.
I love pretty Penny too
Can you tell me how many asylum seekers you picked up on your patrol today?
OK, Rudd has to be tempted for a DD after this debacle, and if the ETS is knocked back.
I would be….
Try this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LZBPu7jJbJU
More popcorn over here!
Samantha Maiden
Told ya Psephos – do your duty for Labor. Give the little darlings a drink so they get off Kev’s back!
Toothy, the Suez Canal War finished in 1957.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/24/2752351.htm
Talk about being split!
This isn’t the beginning of the end of their division.
It’s the end of the beginning.
The bitterness will gnaw at the Liberals for years.
I’d pay good money to be in THAT meeting
I believe that while domestic dogs are descended from their wolf ancestors there has been a genetic drift. A crucial change is a gene that kind of makes domestic dogs constantly visually check where their human associates are at. If so, it is why raising a wolf from a pup does not get you the same doggie results as raising a domestic dog from a pup. Might be wrong on that.
I’ll take that as you being a lifetime Labor voter.
I’ve voted as follows:
Libs 2001
Labor 2004
Labor 2007
It will be back to Libs the way Labor is going.
LOL! The ABC News Adelaide presenter Dominique Schwartz could hardly contain her amusement after announcing at the end of the news that the opposition still hasn’t come up with a policy on the CPRS. She was trying very hard not to laugh.
Goodbye Malcolm.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HlOLfeYhlnk
I reckon Kev should join the jornos and shout them all a drink.
The spill is on, says David Speers.
Andrews is running! Dear God.
Kevin Andrews has just said he’s having a go at MT in a spill (Speers on Sky)
Oh Please, pretty please, elect Kevin Andrews
julie_posetti RT @latikambourke Andrews says if this is a spill he’s a candidate
And one for you TTH.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gl2NKZtl07c
They can’t be serious….
Are they?
Truthy
I have voted Labor my entire life, why would anyone vote otherwise?
Samantha Maiden!
http://twitter.com/samanthamaiden
I thought that the Korean War has not actually ended but is in a state of truce.
Where is Psephos when you need him?
C’Mon Rudd. A DD will vaporise these guys, especially with Andrews…..
Please!
Mike Renn should send Malcolm a bottle of champer.
I can’t stand the sight of blood. However, in this case, ….
That would be BRILLIANT
And remember, the party would most likely oppose the CPRS giving Rudd a D.D. trigger!
Andrews as leader and a D.D. trigger!
Boerwar, that’s right.
This is just like watching a car crash in slow motion….
Possum:
http://twitter.com/Pollytics
I’m right here, Boerwar.
Yes that is correct.
That’s Kevin Haneef Andrews. Just the man to lead this nation.
What if the party room sacks Turnbull, elects Andrews, and yet 7 Liberal senators cross the floor and vote for the CPRS anyway?
As in Lay Down Misère? So many choices! The Boofhead Right would probably vote for Iron Bar or Heff. Robb would have to switch to the Reps. Climate Deniers …
OTOH, Tony Abbott has probably collected the most significant groups who wouldn’t vote for him in a fit – any who doesn’t want to have a PM who’s a very stauch RW RC member of Opus Dei & dedicated to the Vatican Line on anything to do freedom of choice with regard to reproduction & voluntary euthenasia: most women, anti-Catholic religions/ sects, Masons & member of some other lodges, probably more than 50% of those who read/saw “The Da Vinci Code”, those who support gays, voluntary euthanasia … the list goes on. The attacks on Bernie Banton & Nicola Roxon would play brilliantly in ALP election ads.
Then there’s Andrews; Tony Abbott without the Charisma (?), humour or ability to sound sweetly rational; he of the Midas Touch for stuffing up and snatching defeat from the very jaws of victory. And then there’s The Living Dead, Ruddock.
My Dream Team: Leader, Tony Abbott; Deputy, Kev Andrews; Treasurer, J Bishop; Foreign Minister, Phillip Ruddock; Minister for Employment & Workplace Conditions, Wilson Tuckey; Minister for Home Affairs, Social Inclusion & Minister Assisting the PM on Status of Women, Bill Heffernan; Minister for Climate Change & Carbon Reduction, Barnaby Joyce.
Was it a blooper that Rudd used ‘centigrade’ when he meant ‘celsius’ today?
TTH,
I have always voted Labor in the past but I will be holding my nose and voting Liberal in the next NSW state election. It won’t matter in my seat – Heffron – home of the hopeless Kristina Kenneally and I am fully aware that the O’Farrell libs (I have some correspondence from him and he is hopeless) will be worse. But the time has come for NSW Labor to be gone.
Talking Liberal 3AW reporter says that rumours are rife that Turnbull will pull on a spill.
What are the good twitter pages for following this people?
I’m going cross eyed here…..
kevin andrews confirms could be candidate majority opposed
http://twitter.com/samanthamaiden
Gary Bruce – you and I did that this morning. Bl….y Andrews is running if there’s a spill. Our votes went to his head, GB.
Boerwar – we’ve had people let pure bred dingoes loose in the back paddocks around here. Bought them as pups and couldn’t handle them so turned them into the scrub. They’ve bred with the feral dogs and they are now terrorising all the wallabies.
This has been a peaceful area until recently but now the packs are running and causing havoc so we’ll have to get Rural Lands to lay some baits. Obviously domestic strays and dingoes interbreed very well. Some of them are bigger than German Shepherds.
739 by OzPol Tragic
Andrew Robb is in the HoR as the Member for Goldstein.
Penberthy on The Punch:
How will the DENIERS manage to get a leadership spill up if they don’t have a majority to get the denial position up?
I think this could fizz out without a spill motion.
oh beautiful dreamer
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3WDhd4oAyY
I thought they were the same thing!
TTH – if you can contemplate voting for the Liberal Party after tonight, then good luck to you. You obviously need it.
I can’t help but wonder if Turnbull is actually a turncoat, and is secretly a Labor man seeking to create as much havoc and destruction in the Liberal party before defecting. If he is, he is excelling quite brilliantly. wouldn’t that be poetry in motion…
We have a winner
Finns,
What about Shrek?
Remember Leading Seaman Goldstein?
http://navylark.0catch.com/navy/chr.html
There would be acrimony between Abbott and Andrews, wouldn’t there?
This is great!
We may have done Labor proud BH.
Yeah, they are traditional rivals in the who is more right wing stakes.
The fisherpersons with their lures have gone strangely quiet. Why isn’t this issue worth commenting on?
Annabel Crabb:
This is just speculation
My OH, who usually dont a mousebehind on politics, said: “Oh no, no Kevin Andrews”. I had to slap her down.
24/11 two years ago and now. Delicious!
These people fighting to be captain of the Titanic?
Abbott / Andrews or Andrews / Abbott would be insane.
After the election the opposition would be the Labor Left.
My prediction that Abbott would be the next leader of the rabble (made many many months ago) may be coming true.
Scorpio
Yes, and no. I learned something new today:
http://www.madsci.org/posts/archives/sep99/937826939.Sh.r.html
Happy anniversary Labor.
Abbott/Andrews leadership! geez Dumb/Dumber more like it.
How can those two be expected to connect with modern Australia.
I get it! They are re-enacting the 2007 election loss. They are going to cut down Turnbull and demand he resign his seat like all Liberal leaders.
As always, GB, as always.
Deckchairs at 10 paces
I can see the undertaker comic strip of Abbott and Andrews now, carrying the Liberal Party coffin to its grave.
Ooops, I was thinking of Minchin!
Wow, you’ve all gone mad since i started that post (after # 588!)
PS ShowsOn; I’m a Time Lord. I know about tears in the spacetime/ timespacer fabric!
Time present and time past
Are both perhaps present in time future,
And time future contained in time past …
Time past and time future
What might have been and what has been
Point to one end, which is always present.
(TS Eliot: “Burnt Norton”)
Chris Uhllman:
Hey Gus,
I don’t what’s more enjoyable, this or whining Greens on the other thread
Wow, My Christmas came early this year. Kevin Andrews or Abbott as leader? bwahahaha. Turnbull’s positions is now untenable, we will have a new leader by the end of the night.
Now Samantha Maiden says MPs are texting “no spill” from inside the meeting.
Samantha Maiden
Annabel is on
http://twitter.com/annabelcrabb
Samantha is on
http://twitter.com/samanthamaiden
If you are using Firefox right click on the link and Open link in new tab
No Spill by the dills!
“We” meaning, the rabble opposite of course.
There’s a new Twitter channel to track the leadership spill:
http://twitter.com/search?q=%23spill
JimmyD@750
Maybe Nelson and Turnbull were Labor sleepers.
The Pope has just called a prayer meeting after tweeting Abbott!
He wants the quinella!
Wow, this only hit the fan less than two hours ago…
And they say a week is a long time in politics
Ten News W.A.:
If not tonight, then in the next few days. Turnbull is finished.
Ch7 had newsflash that spill is on
WTH is going on
Ah, I have been a bit slow but something finally twigged. The trogs were angry with Turnbull because, when he put his leadership on the line on the ETS, he forced them into the light of day.
Consistently, the trogs now want a secret ballot.
I reckon Andrews is running interference for Abbott.
Did the Abbott RT the Father?
Whatever happens Turnbull’s credibility is zilch. He can promise nothing on behalf of his party.
I hope that’s not right! It would spoil a perfectly enjoyable evening so far!
No way! He is just preparing that 2 AM press conference to explain the policy.
And remember everyone, Abbott wants to oppose the CPRS in order to ensure coalition unity!
Unless Brian Longname has advised the partyroom that according to the polls Turnbull is the only person who can save most of their seats
I can see the ABC; valiant Turnbull fights for future of world against all odds, wins brilliant last minute victory.
Wonder if the govt is monitoring the tweets.
David Speers says no spill too.
That sucks!
More likely the rest of the week will be spent discussing that Turnbull’s leadership is terminal irrespective of what the Liberals do on the CPRS.
I’m thinking you are giving too much credence to Australians interest in the ETS. I know it’s probably making great talking poitns down in Canberra, but do the punters out there really care on the nitty gritty details? I’m thinking, no.
In fact I think most punters out there couldn’t care less. It certainly won’t be water cooler talk tommorow.
That is assuming the right will be act according to common sense.
No spill……
Awwwwwww!
Well no spill tonight anyway…
According to one Green on the other thread I’m an agent for the WA State ALp Secretary
despite never meeting the man.
Give it time, people, give it time!
Plenty can happen in the next half hour or so!
I reckon that is spot on. He knows where the money is coming from and all the other contestants rank a long way behind Turnbull as preferred Lib leader.
Turnbull can still resign in the morning if he can come to the realisation that he is well and truly damaged goods.
True the Liberal leadership will not be water coller talk tomorrow but that might be the best thing for Turnbull and the Liberals who today have shown themselves to be in serious trouble and if they go to Abbott and Andrews then Rudd should call the election and put them out of their misey.
Will Turnbull resign as a grand gesture because he doesn’t the strong support of his party on ETS?
What? No spill? Speers’ No: 4 wRONgs.
Diog, you are more and more safe.
Possum asks if the Libs can afford a federal election campaign without Turnbull.
Perhaps we are seeing the beginning of the split of the conservative side of politics? (one can only hope)
Frank Calabrese,
We all know you’re a “secret”agent, Frank. Shsssss now!
Seriously the Liberals are hopeless, they couldn’t organise a root in Mike Rann’s parliamentary office during a sitting week.
# bedlam turnbull out noone knows what it means less than 20 seconds ago from mobile web
Frank why have you not blocked the Greens or is it only little Beemers who get the block. LOL
Meanwhile, over on the professional, rational, decent side of politics the contrast could not be more stark:
http://www.alp.org.au/media/1109/msccwpm240.php
samanthamaiden
bedlam turnbull out noone knows what it means
half a minute ago from mobile web
Crikey! I’d hate to see what they would be like at the end of one!
Sammy Maiden:
WHAT!? Has Turnbull resigned the leadership!?
Wot a naive question. The PM’s office monitors every form of media there is, 24 hours a day.
why arent you out in your tinnie (night light equipped) preventing unauthorised entries into our territorial zone?
This is all so exciting
Samantha Maiden
Psephos – why aren’t you a fly on the wall down there? We’re dying to know what’s going on.
ShowsOn,
Michelle was just there to do the vacuuming.
Agenda on Sky in couple secs
Dewgong 817
Um what…….
That turned quickly
Do people in here really think Australians have a huge understanding, let alone interest in an ETS to really care?
It’s so complicated, it aint going to be a big talking point for most Australians.
# brandis and birmingham out and into leaders office wont say if spill is on, over or off 1 minute ago from mobile web
Apparently no spill, meeting over…
Has the ALP ever seen a day like what we are seeing today with the Liberals.
A split in the Liberal Party could be a good thing in the long run.
Turnbull is refusing to take part in the spill by the looks of things!
He’s only got two fingernails left! Can’t hold on much longer!
Gee, it hurts!
No spill tonight anyway….
TTh, they will certainly have an interest in Turnbull’s incompetence and a Liberal party riven by disunity. What a rabble. Couldn’t run a chook raffle.
We on the government side have no interest in these petty feudings among The Rabble.
Turnbull will hold a presser soon to demand the resignation of Kevin Rudd because The Liberal Party no longer has confidence in him.
ABC Online’s Breaking News header:
‘ABC sources told confusion reigns on Turnbull leadership’
If there is going to be a spill Turnbull would demand that it is delayed until tomorrow.
The truth hurts, doesn’t it TTH. Your party is a shambles.
I’ve had two bets on the leadership:
- Cossie (that ended down the tubes, ruawake was right)
- Robb (don’t tell me ruawake is going to get me again with Mad Monk)
Looks like the Liberals will be supporting the bill! source Annabel Crabb
Try telling that to the Good Greens of willagee then ?
Speers is still on Kevin caves in, oh dear. wRONg no: 5.
David Penberthy
http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/next-two-hours-could-seal-malcolm-turnbulls-fate/
Geez but there must be some bloody good gossip floating around.
Looks like we might see a boatload of political refugees sailing out of Canberra and towards anywhere that will protect them from persecution by the other side of the Liberal party.
What a complete incompetent, a massive story is sitting in front of his face and he is talking about the government!
from Annabel.
So in other words the ‘losers’ are spitting the dummy?
annabelcrabb
Turnbull to make statement shortly.
If Rudd has caved in then gee Howard fell over in getting the GST passed.
turnbull presser in 10 mins
make sure they steer well clear of troothy’s tinnie
dave,
Any online cover?
Video of Turnbul’ls political fortunes today.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xbv8ECWEsu0
Finns
It will be in 10mins says Speers
Annabel Crabb thinks Turnbull has won.
Penberthy thinks that will resume tomorrow morning.
They won’t get past TTH
But that means there are 24 undecided or undisclosed.
Sky Noos saying presser in approx 10 mins.
Maybe abc online ?
Who do you think will be paddling?
Amigo, that’s wRONg no: 6 for Speers.
annabel
And Speers sounding sillier than ever. We all knew Kev & Penny would be holding something back to negotiate with. Malcolm Farr has got more brains in his little toe than Speers had in his head.
Jensen says numbers were wRONg and to watch this space for leadership spill
Let me repeat of the headline tomorrow:
Turnbull triumphs, Rudd caves in
But it can’t be a victory after Turnbull did what he did. You can’t just say “I win, now I’m going to go get pissed.”
Turnbull must’ve known that if there was a secret ballot the result would be so close that it would amount to a loss (even if it was a numerical victory).
“You don’t ever see this in the Labor Party” says Senator Birmingham. Well thank Dog for that!
Diog, Speers is on wRONgs No: 6, can you match that?
speers giving birmingham free kicks all over the paddock
oh i thought that was Capt. Birmingham of McHale Navy.
This is just insane. Turnbull is going to stand up and say everyone loves the ETS, when we know that is wrong.
Andrews – 41 opposed 33 in favour. Majority of party room wanted a no.
It doesn’t matter, Its Time, but you can bet that if there are two paddling it will be in opposite directions.
Surely only crappy, cheap, corrupt media outlets having reporters of no credibility could write a headline like that?
I can give it a go.
RobertCandelori David Speers for Coalition PM
[Andrews – 41 opposed 33 in favour. Majority of party room wanted a no.
WHAT!? This is nuts. Turnbull is gone.
He should've used the option of last resort, everyone can vote however they like.
samanthamaiden
30 year press gallery veteran declares turnbull has delivered “best shitfight in years”
Well, I think two things are abundantly clear from today.
The first is that, should the worst come to the worst with climate change, we will be able to interbreed with any number of species, or at least genetically modify them or us, to ensure the survival of humanity or whatever we call the altered species which results.
The second is that however much fun may be involved in that process, it’s nothing compared to watching a bunch of eunuchs pursue a vigorous session of sado-masochism in impotent rage.
30 year press gallery veteran declares turnbull has delivered “best shitfight in years”
Don’t you mean ‘Rudd’s humiliating cave in’ ‘Turnbull’s heroic triump’?
http://www.abc.net.au/streaming/abc-video2.asx
stream of turnbulls statement for anyone who wants it
Van Onselen says Turnbull is terminal.
Is Glen on suicide watch?
Someone should check that GP doesn’t suffer alcohol toxicity from slurping champers (or lambrusco).
So will Tuckey be on Lateline tonight?
Surely that would have to be Grattan
Yeah as acting leader.
Turnbull was still thinking that he was conducting an investment meeting, where you need to have the deal cut, rather than a political party meeting.
What does this mean?
Michelle would never say “shitfight”! It must have been Oakes.
and that hockey Joe is the *strong* candidate for the new year. ha ! Dream on.
“Acting” being the operative word here.:-)
Is this live?
La Grattan?
It doesn’t include the 20 members of the frontbench, who are locked into the leadership position .
you betcha
Is this live? yes
Surely this is the first leadership spill that has played out on twitter:
http://twitter.com/search?q=%23spill
Greg Hunt is supporting his leader!
Is Lucy and his daughter looking over Turnbull’s shoulder now as he prepares for the presser.
Thanks Frank
Works for me on VLC media player
I refer youse all to this post of mine from June, when I prophesised that Turnbull would resign the leadership and his seat.,,, and I gave exact reasons: Little Malco would get the shits with this bunch of recalcitrant trogs.
Sorry, but you heard it from BB first.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/06/29/newspoll-56-44-acnielsen-58-42-galaxy-56-44/comment-page-3/#comment-299305
Greg Hunt is in the room looks like he is holding onto the chair with his hands.
This is almost as good as election night 2007. But no beer in the fridge. sob
hurry up truffles, make your statement already
linking again
http://www.abc.net.au/streaming/abc-video2.asx
Xanthippe supports a Tuckey/Abbott leadership ticket. People skills AND experience. A winning combination!
I agree with you BB. I have two $50 bets on with a lib mate of mine, one relating to Turnbull not being leader by the next election, and another saying he won’t be the member for Wentworth by then either. Reckon I’m gunna collect!!
annabelcrabb
I’m told that there is no follow up meeting scheduled for tomorrow. Turnbull has challenged the party room and survived.
annabel
Speers wRONg No: 6 is locked in, 10mins has passed.
malcolm just adjusting the knives
Oh dear it’s the blockhead K Gilbert.
I can’t believe that the partyroom will BOTH allow Turnbull to pass the CPRS in amended form AND sack him as leader over summer.
What is the point of that!? If he wins on the CPRS and votes with the government then that means he wins and will be the leader at the next election.
Turnbull is obviously holding this press conference to say he won and the party will support him.
NO FUN!
Who is that nice looking chick standing by the door?
Peter Martin drank too much and passed out at Turnbull’s drinks:
http://twitter.com/1petermartin
The bull’s on.
Bronwyn bishop?
Ah yes, Turnbull’s triumph has started.
No, she from South Australia.
Turnbull in complete denial!!
Frank@709:
Hey – They are good!
Piss off malcolm!!!
We WANT MACCA!!!
Turnbull – victory in his own mind.
He did it all apparently. We have done this, We have done that.
Weirdest opening sentence to a political article of all time:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/turnbull-survives-but-isolated-from-frontbench-on-ets/story-e6frgczf-1225803412845
vera,
You can have Julie. She’s there too.
The bull is well and truly on.
“I’m the leader, I’ve made the call”
Hmmmm….. that’s going to please people
A reporter just said the final vote was 47 / 46.
It’s his party and he’ll cry if he wants to.
“This demonstrates our genuine and sincere commitment on climate change” LOLZ
Astrobleme:
I don’t assume that there are unknown effects that make AGW not likely. I assume that there could be are unknown effects that make increased CO2 not increase temperature significantly.
There could be. I don’t discount that. But the hypothesis before me is that increased CO2 will cause catastrophic warming. It is up to those who claim this to prove their case. To do this they need to demonstrate that they have taken into account all the myriad possible influences on Earth’s temperature and the result of them all is that catastrophic warming is highly likely to occur.
I can’t help thinking that your questions are couched in terms of whether action should be taken to reduce emissions. I”ve already said that I believe they should on the basis that, at the very best, we don’t know what will happen as emissions increase. What I’m debating is the pure science. A hypothesis has been put forward, and I’m simply expressing doubt as to whether it’s been proven to a reasonable degree of confidence. In science if you have a hypothesis it’s up to you to demonstrate that there’s sufficient evidence for it. That doesn’t mean that if you can’t demonstrate it you don’t take it as a worst case case and take action to prevent it.
ShowsOn:
As I explained above, I am responding to the AGW hypothesis. Either unexpected effects have been taken into account or they haven’t. If they haven’t then the hypothesis is weaker than it would be otherwise. Whether there could be effects in the other direction does not alter that. Try to learn a little about scientific rigour.
ShowsOn, you are supporting AGW with religious fervour. You treat all evidence in favour of AGW as gospel and you howl down any doubts. That’s unhealthy. Get yourself at least a sliver of healthy scepticism and an open mind.
We need wilson to gatecrash the presser !
We want wilson ! We want wilson ! We want wilson !
He’s fobbing off the questions…
Wow this looks bad
Tuckey’s apparently writng a letter to cause a spill
“I’m not interested in Wilson Tuckey.” LOLZ
vp
She’s all yours
“I’m not going to go into the numbers”!
If I was Turnbull I would delay the vote until after Copenhagen.
Whats Labor going to do about it other than have a whine. DD Territory can be very poisonous.
“I’m the leader, right?”
Apparently, Malcolm is the leader.
“I’m the leader and I made the call” has just been said three times
He sounds a little annoyed with the questions…
The sharks are not interest in Emission Trading Scheme (ETS), they are more interested in Eradicate Turnbull Scheme (ETS)
Sammy Maiden:
“I’m the Leader. I’ve made the call.” The denialists don’t exist!!
“I’m the LEADER!!!!”
But its 40/ 33 against when the shadow cabinet is excluded. The last vote was supposed to be a party room vote, excluding the shadow cabinet who had already had there wack.
“I’m the leader”
Not for long you aren’t.
Are his senators going to pass the bill?
This guy is history
I’m sorry, this is getting dersparate
“WESPECT.. MAH… AWTHOWITEEEEYYY !!!
Perhaps he can burst into song.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxvetM7uqms
Turnbull:
Why is he even bothering?
ShowsOn, Sky are reporting 46 v 33 % of speakers were against the deal, and read a statement from Dennis Jensen saying that Turnbull’s leadership is toast. Turnbull is said to have announced his “victory” whilst the senators were in the chamber
LOL @ 953
Just stop Malcolm, please.
Please!
OPT@739:
You rock!
If only it were true ….
Well he made the right call if there is going to first step to an ETS.
Surely at least 7 out of the 32 Liberals will vote for it. If he can’t get 7, then it is unbelievable that he has the numbers to remain leader.
This is high risk stuff from turnbull, setting himself up and a long way to fall.
But HE has made the call. He is saying take me on if you dare !
He is a flounder.
Turnbull
the vicky pollard of oz politics
yeah but no but yeah but….
I don’t doubt that there are 7 Senators who will vote for the bill. That’s all it takes.
I’ve said all year that the bill would pass before Copenhagen, and it will.
Well, not any more (hopefully) though I’m not so sure about NSW; BUT ….
Er, yes! Hobart ALP Nat Conf 1954. And yes, it did split the ALP. And yes, it was, in the very very very long run, A Good Thing!
Because now the kids, grandkids & great-grandkids of the same type of religion-driven fanaticism, same politico-religious persuasions, same blinkered mindsets, same aggression, same divisiveness, same unelectability have been buggering up state Liberal parties for decades, and are now doing the same to the Federal party.
This is terrible, it just leaves the impression that he could only win by rigging things in his favour.
“The only votes are for leadership ballots”
He really shouldn’t have brought that up….
There’s the sound bite
Frank, Turnbull lives in the Shangri-La:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FxSM88H-G4
mesma playing ducks n drakes on her support for turnbull
Julie! Julie!
The Libs have been watching too much Fox News.
They think that because Rupert says they’ve got legs that they’ve actually got legs.
They haven’t got legs.
So there was no vote, because Turnbull would have lost, so he makes the “call” that the partyroom supports him. Intruiging
Dennis Shanahan:
Turnbull:
Not the most confident statement a political leader has ever made.
Turnbull should man up and take some risks.
Block the governments legislation and say they will not vote until after Copenhagen. That puts the ball back into Labors court and makes the Libs seem united. It would certainly be a master stroke and will make the cynics in the party happy, and more willing to vote on future ETS bills.
Who’s the Leader?
I was here the day Rudd replaced Beazley, and it was nothing like this muddle and chaos.
Wow, what a night! Took me ages to catch up all the posts
Loved the second question to Turnbull: “Are you a dead man walking?”
He is toast
Yeah, but the point is does the party room support him?</i
Poor old Malcolm looks well and truely stuffed, is that atear in the corner of his eye?
This is the moment where Global Warming became the GST for the conservatives.
To all you who doubted that this is the most important issue of our generation pause.
We are about to see history in the making.
It doesn’t matter what the outcome of the COAllusion chat is.
Boom.
Yep that’s the summary. He couldn’t have an official vote because he would’ve lost, so he just pretended that he won then walked off.
Truthy, you’ve never been more irrelevant.
TTH, you’ve lost this one, so get over it.
But after being taken to the cleaners perhaps he’s the leader f the Laundromat.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohFJIerqZso
NB, it is rumoured that it’s Billy Joel who’s bangin’ on that piano
For crap sake! He just rolled his party on a new policy of SUPPORTING it!
Maybe Malcolm could cross the floor and join Labor, as he wanted to do a few years ago.
Turnbull’s body langauge keeps turning away from the room.
This screams please find me the door.
Well, big ups to Turnbull for his balls.
…hang on Mesma muddying the message…
False Alarm, no damage there.
I’m going to invest in a popcorn machine – the denialists will be a suppurating pus volcano erupting and farting and gurgling and undermining the Coalition every day for the next decade.
Rudd has supertrumped even the biggest of Howard’s wedges.
No, they only take official votes on leadership ballots in the Coalition party room. Policy votes are decided by the leader’s analysis of the opinions of the room. Wierd, but that’s the way they do it.
LOL!
Now Turnbull is basically saying Rudd’s lines!
So the ETS will get passed but Turnbull chucked out of the leadership.
He’s become the first Climate Change martyr.
Ahhh I’m hearing the Labor hacks whine at my suggestion, sounds like a winner.
Vote as a unified party AGAINST the ETS measures Turnbull and say your party will wait until Copenhagen.
This would be a masterstroke. Keeps the party united, puts the ball back into Labors court, and makes the government seem rushed.
Turnbull’s all over the place in this presser. Says 2 more questions then takes 7 or 8 more. Bizarre…
But it is obvious that the feeling in the partyroom was very evenly divided. Turnbull is pretending that it was a formality.
This is so bizarre, however most of Australia will be unaware of the chaos.
Bummer
macca does all the work and doesn’t get to utter a word
Diog,
Collateral damage only; MT is expendable.
Why did Turnbull shake Tony Wright’s hand on the way out?
I can’t see the telly but I’m getting the gist from the posts. Samantha Maiden’s twitter is a hoot.
In his comments in the last 5 minutes on CC he was of course absolutely right.
The next poll should be interesting. It is quite possible that Malcolm’s approval will go up but the party’s will drop if people are really concerned by climate change
It will be all over the news tomorrow. All the deniers coming in to parliament will attack Turnbull.
Do you genuinely believe this? The denialists calling for a delay are doing it as just one step along the way of never taking action.
He’s still finished. His party will knife him sooner or later.
So thats the end of the CPRS debate. It will pass this week.
Yes, because he was spruiking a bipartisan policy.
Agree totally. Some were even saying that the shadow cabinet is not counted in the party room for the purposes of determining the decision either, and that Turnbull included them in the ‘count’ because the room was actually against the bill. A mess.
I love it when a plan comes together.
The bonehead Gilbert says there will be a spill this week. That probably means there won’t be.
Spill on Thursday morning…
Turnbull is in the wRONg Party. It’s a pity.
Speers just said there will be a spill on Thursday, wRONg No: 7?
Very sorry I couldn’t keep up with all this tonight. I saw the 7.30 report here in SA a half hour late and it was obvious then that it is all ending pathetically for the “coalition”.
Some thoughts:
- I don’t actually blame Turnbull for this one. Tuckey, Abbott, Andrews and co are nuts but the real villain to me is Andrew Robb, who is borderline sane but has stabbed his boss in the back when he needed every vote. Shame.
- as for who will be Liberal leader who cares; its like deciding who takes over Germany in ’45.
- I know its too late for a DD or any election before Christmas but if the coalition doesn’t pass the ETS Rudd really should call an election early in the new year. He had a clear mandate for an ETS and with or without Fielding gone the Libs and Nats will be crushed in House and Senate.
- what happened to Fieldings deferral motion? Apart from Liberal self-immolation the ETS vote before Copenhagen still matters a lot. It woudl eb bad for Labor electorally to just gloat over the disunity and not get the bill passed. It will also look bad to the electorate.
- I had a further thought on the comments about Turnbull funding the Libs election. Is that why the Nats are selling farmers out? Clive Palmer their Qld president is one of Australia’s richest men and a coal baron apparently. He would oppose an ETS, adn must be arm-twisting Barnaby Joyce and the rest of the National’s Senate flock.
- the one coalition person I still respect after all this is Ian Macfarlane.
- yes the Korean War only ended in a truce. There has never been a treaty signed AFAIK.
- there are two winners from tonight – Kevin Rudd and Mike Rann. This will be al over teh papers tomorrow, and Rann can quietly be grateful for that, not that I ever thought the attention he got on the non-sex non-scandal was fair.
Can’t wait for Lateline. Does anyone know who will front for the coalition?
Gilbert saying Andrews has gravitas? What the?
What’s left of Malcolm Turnbull.
Yep. Open season.
AAP
If they have a spill and Andrewsor Abbott is new leader would the ETS be scrapped. Not even go to the Senate?
A spill while they are debating the ETS in the Senate? If there is a change of leader are all bets off?
There’s only a DD trigger if the original bill is up. What happens if the amended bill is knocked off?
Dare I say it?
This is as good as election 2007
Well,almost.
Well he would clean up the Opus Dei vote if Tony doesn’t put his ahnd up
OK I’m going home, that’s enough drama for one night. Thanks to all for coverage and commentary far superior to the MSM as always. Wir sind die Nachtrichten!
Perhaps but politically it would be a masterstroke.
Copenhagens in what… December?
The soonest Labor could call a Double D election would be probably Feburary, and Parliament resits in Feburary.
The policy’s not going to be integrated for ages anyway, so to the punters it looks like the policies being pushed through for political reasons.
Turnbull could simply say the Libs support an ETS, but will wait until Copehagen for a decision on Labors policy to see the direct the rest of the world is taking. It would be a masterstroke, even keeps the party united.
It doesn’t make a difference.
Fran kelly is polishing her lines for radio national tomorrow morning :
“In a stunning display of strong leadership, Australia’s alternative prime minister Malcolm turnbull yesterday showed he is more than capable of taking the hard decisions when they need to made. As I have said on many previous occassions, this is something mr rudd is not able to do.”
It’s more like the 2004 election… with Mark Lathams pathetic backdown on the U.S Free Trade Agreement.
Toothy, the six days war finished on the seventh day.
Socrates – You could be right about Palmer. He funded the Qld State election and Barnaby Joyce has seemed to be way over the top with the ETS. Good thought there.
I agree about Ian Macfarlane – he can see the opportunities for farmers now.
what fun on rudd’s 2nd anniversary. who said leadership spill thursday???
The original ETS bills have been reintroduced into the Reps and passed? The original ETS bills are reintroduced into the Senate. If they are amended in accordance with the deal done by Wong and passed by the Senate then they are referred back to the Reps and passed as amended. If the Libs withdraw from the deal, then the bills in their original form are defeated or unreasonably delayed or amended and referred back to the Reps and rejected, thus providing the DD trigger.
Tick tick tick.
The morons at Sky News.
I got distracted and he slipped thru the cordon.
Your faulty memory is on show again.
As I recall, Mark Latham proposed amendments which Howard backed down and accepted. Like the Parliamentary Superannuation changes.
Howard wasn’t a man of steel, more a man of rust that crumbled at the slightest provocation.
Finns
You and your mates better look out for Malcolm in the harbour. He might need some help if his “mates” throw him to the fishes.
If the majority in their party room spoke against the bill there will be a spill by the end of the week.
Go Robb
# RT @David_Speers: lib source: spill thurs morning half a minute ago from web
Another one, Finns!
dave, even fran will have trouble spinning this given he clearly didnt have the numbers to declare victory
Finns,
You’ll have no trouble finding him.
http://images.google.com.au/imgres?imgurl=http://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/image/0012/164001/flounder.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/fisheries/recreational/saltwater/sw-species/flounder&usg=__TRfVPCFGImnG8pDZNWSwgyPuT9A=&h=315&w=520&sz=31&hl=en&start=1&um=1&tbnid=vmMIFitohZUZiM:&tbnh=79&tbnw=131&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dflounder%26hl%3Den%26rlz%3D1B3GGGL_en-GBAU353AU345%26sa%3DN%26um%3D1
Who will bother to stand in the leadership spill though? I’d imagine it would only be someone not on the front bench (Andrews) as none of the others would risk their position.
Annabel Crabb will be talking about this fiasco on Lateline tonight.
If Malco loses a spill on Thurs am (assuming there is one), I’m guessing the decision to support the ETS is null and void, as long as it hasn’t been voted on by then.
Is Lucy Turnbull as tough as Janette Howard. If Turnbull was so furious that he stormed out of the meeting a couple of times I’d expect him to be able to call it quits but would Lucy let him?
Abbott is the only realistic option, and I don’t think he can win.
Changing to Hockey would be pointless, he is Turnbull minus the fortune.
There’s more to Joe than there is to Malcolm.
Yes I suspect as much. The final senate vote on the CPRS won’t take place until late Thursday night.
Minchin may support Fielding’s motion to delay the vote and then dare other Liberal Senators to vote against him.
Ummm you do realise the Labor ETS Bill has Coalition proposed amendments in it don’t you?
Gee it must have been a “Rudd Backdown”.
That’s why I advised andrews to avoid the cagematch option for the leadership
Andrews would be a disaster. I might get my 60/40 Newspoll I was hoping for when it was 52/48.
No it doesn’t. At the moment it is the same as the #1 bill.
She’s a professional, she’ll find a way
Yep but it won’t stop someone. fran or someone at OO. Sheehan from smh was pontificating today that a split is a good thing.
Shananahan and co will be spinning stuff as we sit here.
The Magnificent 7 wRONgs of David Speers of Shynews:
1. He declared that QT will be suspended to 4pm to allow Liberals to bash each other to death.
2. He declared there was a spill initiated by Mad Uncle for 4pm.
3. He declared a victory for Turnbull for 4pm
4. He declared the 8pm spill
5. He declared Rudd has caved in
6. He declared Turnbull presser in 10mins
7. He declared spill on next Thursday.
Eat your heart out, herr Diog.
Doubt it. If anyone was going to spin this for Turnbull it is Sky. If Sky News is openly discussing a spill, turnbull is toast
Not so sure about that vp. Malcolm’s got the brains. Joe’s got charm when he’s not sneering at Kev but he’s also got ‘foot and mouth’ disease and sounds a right dill sometimes.
OK Finns you win, I’ll ignore Sky!!
If Annabel were to pop on LL that would round the day off nicely.
She is.
Ignore the troll. It doesn’t understand that many bills are passed amended.
The right wing wackaloons in the Libs must really be regretting helping elect Turnbull about now.
Oh so it’s exactly the same as the one put up in June is it?
During Howard’s last term, Robb was arguably their smartest and sharpest performer.
He has not been as sharp or focussed since the Libs lost the election. I suppose you could put that down to his illness.
If Robb is right, IF he is right, he should challenge for the leadership.
Did anyone else have the presser live? They are good for something.
Yes.
Buy the T-shirt
Turnbull
http://www.redbubble.com/people/wolfcat/t-shirts/4189920-1-im-still-leader
Damaged goods I think. He’s been labelled a traitor by many and his ‘illness’ would not go down well with voters IMO.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/turnbull-survives-but-isolated-from-frontbench-on-ets/story-e6frgczf-1225803412845
Thats really mad. Wilson calling someone else, anyone else mad
Wow! That was quick!!!
Of course. Never claimed they weren’t.
However someone else claimed that the ETS bill is un-amended and therefore it’s different to Lathams dilema with the free trade agreement back in 2004. Clearly some people like to make up a lot of BS, because the ETS bill has indeed been changed to make at least some of the coalition senators happy.
Ah, the challenges of being in the Bolt denier club, voting is HARD:
Wrong again. Currently it is exactly the same bill that was put to parliament in June.
If Tuckey is the mad uncle then Malcolm is the mad nephew.
He’d certainly be familiar with the symptoms…
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/turnbull-survives-but-isolated-from-frontbench-on-ets/story-e6frgczf-1225803412845
You can vote via the above link, scrol down left hand side.
Do you think that Malcolm Turnbull will still be Opposition Leader by the end of the week?
* Yes 38.37% (465 votes)
* No 61.63% (747 votes)
Total votes: 1212
At this stage a leadership spill would be completely pointless.
If Turnbull loses and say Abbott becomes leader, then more than likely this would just annoy the hell out of perhaps half of the Liberal Senators, 7 of which will the defy Abbott and cross the floor to pass the CPRS.
So then you will have the absolutely nonsensical position of a new leader who got the job via the deniers who was unable to stop his Senators from passing the CPRS that he was elected to the party leadership to oppose.
Why arent you out in your tinnie (border protection model) apprehending illegal AS felons who are violating our marine boundaries.?
If Turnbull is smart he will committ to a vote on the ETS AFTER Copenhagen.
Heck there was even a poll down that supported this view by a majority of Australians that there should be a decision made AFTER Copenhagen.
Come on Turnbull, man up and as a united party delay the vote. It will put the ball back into Labors court.
http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/0707%20Carbon%20Pollution%20Reduction%20Scheme.pdf
Mad Uncle, Mad Monk, Mad Nephew, Mad Mama (Sharma Stone), Mad Party.
Toothy, the war against poverty never ends.
Why would he do that after he just rolled his party into supporting it on Thursday?
You’re a few days behind the debate.
Truthy, you’re still irrelevant.
Stop dreaming and wake up, mate.
You lost. We won.
I think earlier today,just for fun,you said what was the most nonsensical thing that could happen with the CPRS.
I think your wish has been granted.
SOrry to distract from such a fascinating explosion of the libs
Triton:
ME: I did address this point earlier. If you assume there are unknown effects that make AGW not likely,
YOU: I don’t assume that there are unknown effects that make AGW not likely. I assume that there could be are unknown effects that make increased CO2 not increase temperature significantly.
Triton, AGW is the theory that increasing CO2 will increase temps. So this is an oxymoron. Also, AGW doesn’t use the word ‘significantly’ – Arrhenius in 1896 calculated that a doubling of CO2 would cause a rise of between 3 and 4 degrees. Although this is “significant” lets not add words to the theory that don’t belong there.
ME: why do you not also assume there are unknown effects that make it more likley?
YOU: There could be. I don’t discount that. But the hypothesis before me is that increased CO2 will cause catastrophic warming. It is up to those who claim this to prove their case. To do this they need to demonstrate that they have taken into account all the myriad possible influences on Earth’s temperature and the result of them all is that catastrophic warming is highly likely to occur.
The case HAS been demonstrated through radiative physics and climate modelling. ‘Proof’ is a mathematical concept, not a scientific concept. The modelling quantifies as many of the influences as is currently possible.
I suggest you read some papers. I can suggest you start with the IPCC AR4, but I don’t think you’ll be interested.
Next best thing I can suggest is use Google Scholar (a very good resource) and just search for keywords. Try things like Paleoclimate, Phanerozoic Climate to give yourself some context in terms of time. Also try looking at Arrhenius’ original work (Justs earch for his name)
Also Spencer Weart’s history of Global Warming is a good summary.
If you are reading skeptic blogs, then I suggest you also read these blogs, which I think are quite balanced and moderate:
James’ empty blog (James Annan’s blog – who works on climate sensitivity calculations)
Stoat (William Connelly – the guy who moderates the WIkipedia entries on AGW)
Delayed Oscillator (a Dendrochronologist who explains their methodology quite well)
It is going to be the strangest question time ever tomorrow. Rudd will be thanking Turnbull while making fun of most of his backbench.
mike who ?
mike rann is bumbed right off front pages.
I’ve told you, Turnbull is a political newbie.
If he did what I recommend he’ll keep the leadership, the party will remain united and it puts the ball back into Labors court. Instead he has taken the bait.
Exactly, Shows On, exactly
I’ll make it even easier for him, here’s the link to it I provided earlier today:
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm
For both major parties, the inevitable result of a DD is a significant increase in Green & other minor party / independent Senators, and half of them will be there for 6 years; moreover, there’s no way the L-NP would have considered supporting the CC legislation had there not been the threat of beig savaged in the Reps & dropping several Senators. If the L-NP can survive without another big crisis until mid-2010, it might minimise losses.
OTOH, if Climate Change is, as I’d expect, fine-tuned after Copenhagen by Wong & McFarline in the same bi-partisan way, with promises of more fine-tuning as international conditions change after the GFC is over, it will effectively be “off the table” as a major issue for the next election – except for Greens demanding their agenda.
Then again, the Coalition Civil War seem to be in full kamikaze mode.
Un-be-bloody-lieveable.
ABC TV is running bottom of picture scrolls giving updates on the Libs’ party room shenanigans, ruining a perfectly good movie based on Oscar Wilde’s Lady Windemere’s Fan.
It’s so breathless, it’s as if if the asteroid has hours until it touches down and the missiles sent by the Untied Nations just missed it on its way in.
We’re doomed! We’re ruined! We’re all going to die!
Well that is assuming that Turnbull is leader, rather than the chair being left vacant because all the partyroom can agree on is that it doesn’t want Turnbull.
julie_posetti RT @mishaschubert Tuckey & Jensen trip the spill: they’ve sent letter to chief whip Somlyay asking for a leadership ballot 10am Thursday.
But this is the Libs we are talking about, so anything is possible
Surely that is what is going to happen. Even after it is passed the deniers will be saying that they shouldn’t of passed it.
I am so glad I bought those “corn futures”…………….the price is skyrocketing
G’day all!
I’ve come in very late(yes, I watched the arrival of the Rafters baby LOL).
So, have I got this right?
Turnball claims he won a majority of the partyroom, the sceptics are disputing this, Kevin Andrews is prepared to challenge if there’s a spill?
No wonder our troll friend is out in force tonight!
Truthfullone! This is a fight to the death, Malcolm needs the ETS vote to be held as soon as possible and i am sure Rudd will be only too happy to help out.
I thought Julie Bishop’s answer about supporting Malcolm was piss poor, it was an opportunity for her to go to town on anyone who opposed Malcolm but instead went soft.
Kevin Andrews has no chance in hell of ever being PM, he was a dud in every portpolio he ever held and has the christma of a plank of wood.
Tony Abbott is in someways liikable person but that soon changes once one starts to discuss policies and he is just o so wrong on o so many things.
If those knuckleheads are running the leadership spill then it has absolutely no hope.
Turnbull won dirty, but in the coalition partyroom that counts as a win.
Yeah it would be funny if the opposition leader pleads with the Prime Minister to guillotine the Senate debate to ensure it passes while he is still leader.
Don’t underestimate the lemmings.
Assuming he’s still leader by this time tomorrow!
TTH: I thought you were pissed off with Turnball because he didn’t promise to tow those awful boats back to Indonesia.
the irony is just too beautiful
The Greens will get massacred if the three positions on CC are taken to the electorate.
If the Libs sack Turnbull, they will elect a leader who has no intention of supporting an ETS before there is more certainty around the globe. The Libs will then unite and reject the bill in the Senate.
I predict that deniers will filibuster the bill and the legislative window will close.
Can bills be filibustered in the Australian senate?
Well folks, you betcha Saint Kev has a big smile on his face right now!
And the libs look totally gutless again. One year out from an election.
Buit Centre who about those Liberals who support the ETS.
Either way the Liberals are a mess! gosh they need a new issue! but i cannot see one coming along anytime soon.
No because a motion to move to the third reading can carry with a majority of 1 Senator.
ShowsOn – can he do that? and if so, how?
They’ll be desperately hoping more boats full of asylum seekers are on the way
Just move that the bill be agreed to.
That’s probably what Turnbull will do, open Q.T. with a question about asylum seekers as if absolutely nothing out of the ordinary happened tonight.
What if the party instructions to Liberal senators are to abstain from voting, because there is no consensus from the party room? Will that meet the ‘failed to pass’ criteria?
Does anybody know what happened? I have read the news articles and it sounds like Turnbull is claiming a win without a vote being taken.
Obviously that’s the way to go, then. I’m orf. Thanks for a fun night, guys.
Centre @1103 – didn’t you hear?
http://greensmps.org.au/content/media-release/new-poll-shows-australians-back-scientists-and-greens-emissions-trading
It’s all in how it’s spun.. you can’t write off any side in the climate change debate, even the deniers side.
Mexi @ 1107. If the Libs elect a new leader, the ETS supporters who would then be in the minority would toe the party line. Well, at least that’s how you’d reckon it would work. But you never know with the greatest rabble we have ever seen
If 13 Liberals abstain then it will pass 32/31.
If 13 Liberals abstain the toilets will be overflowing.
That’s about it. As Fairfax puts it:
steconone, there was no vote. it appears the majority opposed Turnbull, the numbers differ. Turnbull declared victory nonetheless
It appears the party room rejected the ETS but when Turnbull included the shadow cabinet he had the numbers and that is what he is claiming victory on.
Actually in a funny way today will either break or make Turnbull, if he can survive into next year then he could gain momentium keeping himself in the leadership until the Liberals lose the next poll.
He’s a lightweight, but I’m suggesting a solution to their problem.
He needs to man up and take some hard decisions, thats what makes a good leader. Of course what is probably going to happen is going to seal Turnbulls fate, but what I’ve suggested would be a master stroke.
The dirty jobs are done by the mover and seconder and if those two are prepared to wear the blame if they are unsuccessful then so be it. If the motion is passed then their action will be forgotten once the nominations are called for.
And so the theory was if there was a secret ballot some of the shadow cabinet would’ve been able to freely vote against Turnbull without losing their positions.
So the deniers knew if they could get a free and fair vote it would be impossible for Turnbull to win.
But Turnball can’t claim the entire shadow cabinet, because Abbott, Minchin and Abetz are plainly against any ETS deal. And doesn’t Andrew Robb rejoin the shadow front bench shortly?
I think Malcopops will be rolled by the end of the week, and replaced by Mr People Skills – that’s my fearless prediction!
TTH nice to fantasise, but its too late for Turnbull to do what you suggest
And Julie Bishop will rat on Turnball, and do a deal with Abbott so she gets to stay Deputy Leader.
And Turnball leaves politics altogether, prompting a byelection in the seat of Wentworth. Labor definitely intends to contest it, and drafts Kerryn Phelps!
You see, I’ll be proved right!
So I know that ‘Shadow Cabinet solidarity’ is just a pretend convention, and that party room debate is not really a public forum, but surely Robb’s ambush is pretty extreme nonetheless? Can he really expect to remain on the Opposition front bench (if Turnbull survives)?
But maybe Turnbull counted Minchin, Abbott, Abetz as his supporters on the grounds that if they DON’T support him then they have to resign!
Truth! I susgest winning this vote is a case of Turnbull showing leadership!
Okay he has a long way to go and could be in his final hours as leader but by getting this though the partyroom he atleast as acheived something.
He now needs a vote and for the ETS to pass, he also needs to find an iossue to attack the Government with and sadly for you Truth boatpeople just is not the issue that the Liberals need for they are so far behind they need a near earthquake.
Anyway this is shaping up to be a fun week.
Gosh, this is all turning out to be so boring! Turnbull’s going to stay as opposition leader, this horrible ETS is going to be passed, the polls are going to stay exactly where they have been for the past 12 months, and we’re going to have to suffer through this humdrum business until election time.
Regardless what happens it can only get worse for the liberals. Hoorah…torpedoed by the ETS. Might not have the desired effect for CC, but a master stroke for sinking the Liberal ship. The Flip flopping Zombie party
The Government should retaliate tomorrow and make QT go all day!
Think of the fun Rudd, Swan, Julia and Combet are gonna have with this rabble!
Misha Shubert:
The icing on the cake celebrating the 2nd anniversary of their 07 win!
Unbelievable!
Woohoo! More blood on the floor for Wednesday!
Deconst this is exciting ….there will be constant mixed messages coming out of the coalition from here on in depending who they talk to.They might as well all become independents. It will be like the Queensland Libs and Nats, the elction before last fighting over who was going to be leader right up to the election. we all know the end result.
Turnbull will walk straight to the cross benches tomorrow… to the open mouthed horror of the others.
Here comes more fun with Lateline
How can they possibly sit within a party that supports something that they don’t believe in- and there’s heaps of them. I predict the nats will split before the next election go it alone.
Or like the Republicans who can’t agree on any policy so they just oppose everything.
evan14,
A shadow cabinet meeting was held before the Party Room Meeting.
The first meeting agreed to pass the legislation with amendments. Because of the Lib rules on Cabinet/Shadow Cabinet solidarity, then all those members are obliged to vote for it.
If they then voted against it, they would be expelled from their front Bench position to the back bench! That was why Turnbull counted them (the 20) as being in favour of supporting the bill. In a secret ballot though, he would not be able to depend on that solidarity as some of them could vote against it anonymously!
Exactly! A pretty good political power play actually.
But if they go to a leadership spill, then the deniers DO get a secret ballot, which would immediately split the shadow cabinet.
The way this is shaping up the Libs might split and we could end up with the Conservatives and Classic Liberals. The differences are ideological to the core and it is difficult to see any leader emerging that would have the support of both sides of the divide. Perhaps they need to live separate lives for awhile.
“I’m the leader and I will make the decision for all of you”
Yeah, which is the South Australian Liberals scenario over the last 25 years.
Turnbull allowed diversity of opinion – he let all the M.P.s agree with him in different ways.
The only thing the majority of the Liberal party room believes is that Turnbull must go.
They will make that decision for him.
Apparently, even the ones who disagreed with him agreed with him.
LOL! You know you are a goner when Fielding doesn’t think you have credibility:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,26397346-29277,00.html
He is the expert of course.
There are two more big winners tonight – whoever does that Lolpolz blog and Brian Clark. So much material!
The dogehs are fighting amonst themselves for a bone. It is the Liberal leadership.
An old mongrel named Wilson chases his tail in the corner.
Kittehs watching and laughing.
If that was the case why couldn’t the denial faction get rid of him today?
Why do they need more time?
Sadly I think the Tuckey / Jensen spill will just turn into a Dad’s Army affair.
I don’t know how “anyone” could accuse Kevin Rudd as being boring!
The last three years since he became Labor Leader, have been, in my opinion, some of the most fascinating and exciting times in politics that I can ever remember!
And there is plenty more to come!
I do. He’s completely boring to me and I imagine that’s what he’s going for.
Yeah, he and Bob Katter could get properly acquainted. Bob would be able to give him some tips on how to increase his vote as an independent!
He probably is boring, but the effect that has on everything around him is extremely entertaining
Brandis is normally an instant volume mute for me, but I think he’s actually doing quite well on LL under the circumstances. Probably because he isn’t getting a chance to bag the government…
Annabelle’s hair looks AWFUL
TJ with a very good dig at the piss poor misreporting today saying that if it had been the Iranian revolution would have seen the Ayatollah fall already
Looking at Crabbe i should have got into the “mop futures” as well
Turnbull Toast now available from parliament house cafeteria, it comes with or without butter and condiments…….soon to be the best seller
And Crabbe nails it. Rudd the big winner today.
Order in the House this week will be a must tape for all bludgers.
Whilst lateline talked about a load of trivia, the real issue is now being presented, and what are we are doing- nothing.
I think we are all getting a bit carried away here. The most liklely scenario is now that the bill will be passed with the support of about half the Lib Senators, the Tuckey spill will fizzle out because no-one serious wants the leadership, and everyone will go home for Xmas on Friday.
Yeah I’ll be putting it on the old iPhone.
But after Turnbull loses the next election wouldn’t it be useful for, say, Abbot to say “I tried to get the leadership off Turnbull because I knew he would be bad for the party”?
Quite possibly. One consideration is that the shadow cabinet would not be a bloc in a spill as they were in the ETS ‘vote’. Would that translate into solid support for a candidate other than Turnbull? Time will tell…
Question- how will this scheme reduce carbon emissions, especially when treasury modelling states that it will not reduce emissions until 2031.
Did Turnball have the makeup on, or has he been spending a long time in the sun?
He’s very tanned!
You’d never accuse him of a lack of bravado!
Speaking as a genuine swing voter, all I can say is: die Liberal party die
I disagree with Van Onselan: I doubt the sceptics would support Hockey as leader!
There can’t be a serious spill unless there is a serious leadership candidate. Andrews is not a serious candidate, Hockey won’t challenge, Bishop is a proved dud, and the party knows that Abbott would be suicide. They should leave Turnbull in place until the new year and see what happens. If they don’t give Rudd a DD trigger, the election won’t be until September at the earliest.
But strange things happen, look at Labor electing Latham just because a bunch of Gillard supporters hated the way that the Beazley supporters undermined Crean.
I think Abbott is the only alternative. Hockey is the same as Turnbull but without the big bank account.
All of that will be overtaken by events in the next few years. As the scientific evidence mounts, public pressure for renewed action will ramp up again. Eventually there will be an international agreement with higher targets, and then this bill will be rewritten accordingly. (And if there’s not an international agreement, nothing Australia does will make any difference.)
It is pretty clear that anyone who wanted to oppose Turnbull would have done the numbers and come to the conclusion that even if they knocked him off, they would have done so on a very narrow margin. Then if they did knock him off they would lose the next election anyway. Damned if they do, Damned if they don’t.
It is a measure of their lack of professionalism that they have engaged in all the proximate behaviours of a leadership challenge without actually going through with it.
The Coalition has just had an ejaculation-free orgasm.
Cigarette?
And if they do knock Turnbull off they will just piss off a bunch of Turnbull supporters in the Senate who will then cross the floor and pass the CPRS bill.
So that will leave the Liberals in the bizarre position of having just helped past the CPRS which the leader was just elected to block.
I think anything is possible over the next few days, who would have predicted the drama of today?
I thought it would be very hard for the Liberals as soon as Wong announced on Sunday that they aren’t handing over the final proposal until Tuesday morning after the cabinet and caucus support it.
And I think that a few of the shadow front bench would find it very hard to serve under the leadership of Abbott and the sceptic camp!
From what was said on Lateline – Turnbull basically called a spill 3 times tonight but there were no takers. Is there a serious contender? If so they will have to put their hand up before the senate votes or it’s effectively too late – although, if no one does – I guess it opens the door for Hockey in the new year. People can’t stay with Turnbull but the ETS is already in so Hockey is back in the picture – Van whatsy could well be right. The Sunrise election a possibility???
I hate working on days like today, so much going on and I missed most of it
Was good reading through here and catching up on it though, thanks for that
p.s. I think Annabelle went to Malcolm’s drinks
Dr. Peter of the OZ on LL called Turnbull’s leadership terminal. His principal reason was that many ETS deal supporters have expressed to him their deep disenchantment with MT’s management of the situation. Dr. Pete says that the cooler heads will be taking their time and surreptitiously working out their strategies to replace Turnbull. Abbott seems to be the frontrunner if it comes sooner and Hockey a possiblity if comes later.
Annabel just kept making her characteristic little witticisms and repeating that Turnbull offered them a spill today and there were no takers. I inferred that Ms. Crabb thinks the Howard/Costello pattern will repeat itself so that even the prospect of certain defeat next year won’t be enough motivation for Abbott or Hockey to actually mount a genuine challenge via a Keating-style frontal attack.
Off to bed, see you all tomorrow for more fun and games!
Cheers!
Even Turnbull conceded that this evening. He said that it was inevitable that the Legislation would be revised as circumstances dictated whether that be by a future Labor Government or a “Turnbull, Coalition Government”!! Loved that bit!!!
So basically it makes all the angst and drama that the Libs have gone through recently and today, a totally wasted effort!
The leadership spill will fizzle. Crabb said that Abbott endorsed Turnbull’s leadership.
You think the atmosphere among liberals will be thick with poison from here on. They have been hopeless at cohesion so far and it will probably get worse now.
I’ve got to laugh at the thought of Tuckey and Jensen organising the leadership spill!
Those two couldn’t organise a chook raffle!
In a way this makes sense. They are trying to figure out what sort of party they want to be, a pack of right wing reactionaries like Sarah Palin. Or a group of Liberals that just base policy on evidence and don’t embrace nonsense.
Exactly. As soon as I read that I thought it would fizzle.
Whether that is the case or not, it’s in the media’s financial interest to characterise the Coalition as “anarchic” for the next few months at least. Stories of a party harmony won’t sell papers or attract audiences.
I thought you were off to bed?
That Mitch Hook guy is the biggest dick head. He won’t be satisfied until his industry is completely excluded from the ETS.
I’m glad Turnbull didn’t insist on making that guy happy.
They may be the ones moving for the spill, but that doesn’t mean they would be the only ones on a ballot. Andrews has already said he would nominate.
Lindsay Tanner is at the National Press Club tomorrow 12:30.
They won’t nominate. Jensen and Tuckey are just playing there own game it will only get off the ground if Minchin starts doing numbers for Abbott.
The real purpose of this bill is to enable Australia, as a wealthy country, to show some leadership on CC. What Australia does on its own is of no intrinsic importance. The important thing is that we can now play a leading role in getting a global agreement.
I am now!
SMH online header calls the shot succinctly:
I would genuinely appreciate your reasoning why this is the “important thing” for Australia more than other developed countries.
Because we can’t do much by reducing CO2 on our own. Influencing bigger emitters to do so by setting an example is far more important.
Dario,
Thanks for that cogent explanation. Cheers!
1209 posts in 20 hours (exactly).
Facebook people,
Are you having problems with chat where the window says Couldn’t retrieve chat history and any text you type vanishes after you refresh the page ?
In my view Turnbull will survive making the MSM pundits look stupid. Unfortunately the mad right will continue to gain control in the branches; sensible renewal will not happen. Given time the party will formalise the suicide by electing an unelectable leader. We haven’t seen anything yet.
Look no further than the comments made by “The Truth Hurts” and Glen.
And all this while there are 2 byelections on. I wonder if it will affect the Liberal vote!!!
Psephos @1180, I think that an election will be called before the budget and befoe there are oo many more inteset ratee rises. So about March
before there are too many interest rate rises.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxvetM7uqms This will be playing in Lib party room as they all walk in on Thursday ……it might help
Mike Rann might get knocked off the front page in other states, but here in SA our Murdoch gutter rag is still going its hardest on the issue, despite its own vox pop (and others on news broadcasts) clearly indicating that the population at large either aren’t really very interested or believe Rann.
I suspect that this will all fizzle within the next few days; by this time next year, people will be asking “Michelle who?”
Sad day.
While the government sells out to the “Green Marfioso”, the “Big” doners to the ALP,
a distraction of a sex scandel, or the leadership of the rabble, get all the attention.
The future for our children does’t look good.
Sad, sad day.
Marg I think you are underestimating the polies. The coal fired stations will be replaced by gas sooner rather than later. Also gasifying coal will also come into play. this will all buy some time until renewables come on line. the rest of the world will go nuclear for their power needs
OMG, it’s painful watching Mad Abbott this morning turning Egyptian travelling all the way down the River of De Nile and cant decide whether it’s the Blue or White Nile.
Where have you been?
I think the pollies Blinded by GREED have underestimated the voters.
Er…what have individual pollies got to gain by this decision, marg?
And surely you’d be happy if governments sold out to the Green mafioso?
Laurie Oaskes described the Liberals at the moment as in total shamble, a joke, full of jokers and weirdos, other than that it is doing quite well really.
Marg
I find it hard to believe a certain billionaire named Palmer has not influenced the Nationals into the anti-ETS camp. There are farmers all over Qld, NSW and SA going broke due to increased drought frequency from climate chenge. Look at Macfarlane, a farmer and NFF member, who is now concerned about it. Most of the coalition members who oppose an ETS, including Joyce, Jensen and Tuckey, have sold out their rural constituents to mining industry money.
Centaur
I agree with you on gas for brown coal up to a point. But why do you think gassified coal wil do the trick on GHG emissions? If you look at any sort of realistic reduction targets, and the time to introduce such technology, gassified coal won’t be enough IMO.
Also for any policy makers reading, will somebody plese start paying attention to the state of our electricity grid. Renwables are only viable if you can get the energy to the cities, At present we can’t. There is a pressing need for high capacity grid connections from Melbourne to Adelaide (picks up wind power sites), Sydney to Melbourne (allows brown coal plants in Vic to be shut off), and Adelaide to Brisbane (picks up wind, solar and geothermal sites). Each will cost $1B.
Socrates
could you explain to me why we need grids connecting the major cities? Surely what we need is what we have at present reconfigured – that is, power from the source to the place of need.
Given that power is lost in transmission, surely too much would be lost on (say) a Melbourne to Sydney line?
Can’t see many advantages in having lines connecting the major cities but agree that some reconfiguation of present systems will need to occur.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/i-wont-challenge-turnbull-abbott-20091125-jott.html
Zoomster
First HV power transmission is more efficient than most people realise. Losses are no more than 1% per 100km on a modern grid. In the USA total losses for grid transmission and distribution are 7%. If you don’t have high capacity connections though, losses get higher. We don’t.
Second, our existing grid evolved much as our rail system did, in a stupid state-centric way. Each state tried to exploit its own power resources, rather than chose rationally the cheapest sources nationally. So existing HV connections suit coal and gas deposits, within each state, not renewables or a national market. The only exceptions are the hydro power link across Bass Straight and the Qld-NSW interconnector. So yes there is a grid but it is very poor, especially across borders.
Third, you need to connect to the capital cities because that is where most people live, most manufacturing is done, and hence most power is consumed. More than 90% of Australains live in our 8 largest cities, and almost all our manufacturing is located in them.
If you want to shut down our high emitting sources, like La Trobe Valley brown coal, then you need an alternative to get power to Victoria. The cheapest in the short term (and still less harmfull for GHG) is black coal in NSW. You might lose 10% in transmission, but brown coal produces 30% or more GHG than black coal, so you are still better off.
Wind power has promise as a renewable source in high wind locations, but you need a way to get it to consumers, or the resource won’t get exploited. Our current electricity grid is effectively a sunk cost in favour of coal power suppliers, and badly distorts the market.
Well if we needed any further proof that the liberal party as a bunch have no balls and are all talk, yesterday provided it.
Just as they allowed howard to ride all over them, they are allowing it to happen again.
The nats are very quite, unusual quite given the circumstances.
The only way for the libs to make things worse is to listen to wilson.
If the libs wanted a spill, turnbull apparently gave them 3 chances to bring it on. Not a decent pair of balls amongst any of the old fossilised gasbags.
Not one ferkin set of balls !
I’m not a turnbull fan, but he has played his bunch of losers like a violin, saying try and knock me off if you have the balls. And so far nothing more than hot air.
Without howard this bunch would never have lasted 11 minutes let alone 11 years.
Marg, just remember that you’re party voted against the CPRS in a stronger form. It was watered down because the greens were not prepared to support it and place pressure on the cross bench and opposition to pass it. The Greens are are as responsible as anyone for the scheme being watered down. Your party has made itself irrelevant in the debate now and will be regarded with derision by the general electorate.
Tom
Macca was absolutely seething with Robb at the moment. i wouldnt blame him. Robb was said to have taken his action due to some Frontier Economics report that was commissioned and paid by Turnbull himself. Macca said the FE report was so far off the Govt’s marks, there was no point in taking it into the consideration. In other words, Macca was saying it was a red herring and there must be more to that.
Fran Kelly on RN with La Grattan were speculating that maybe Robb was interested in the leadership. Are you kidding me, a man who supposed to be suffering depression the alternative PM?
The words treacherous, betrayal have been used described Robb action. Macca said Robb never said or spoken to him about it so it was a “total surprise”. Turnbull was right in saying this morning that Liberal Party is not a credible party if it cannot support any ETS. As such, Robb’s action is even more despicable, depression or no depression.
On ABC AM, Turnbull said he will get the Senators to back him in the Senate to pass the ETS. He also said Robb was “totally wRONg” and a total surprise. He is also seething with Robb.
Turnbull is terminal as the Liberal Party leader but he has done the right thing, and good on him.
I said last night Robb was the real villain. His surprise announcement gave momentum to the critics and probably made them go further than they otherwise woud have.
Yet as well as being a betrayal, Robb’s action was also politically stupid. He obviously didn’t confer with the other plotters to see if they had the numbers, which they clearly didn’t. So he lit the fuse and threw the bomb, but didn’t check if it would kill the target. Dumb, dumber, dumbest.
Tom, Spot on. The Greens position throughout gave courage to the Liberal deniers. If the Greens had stood with the Government the pressure on X together with some in the Liberal party would have won the day without the recent amendments. The Greens position resulted in a weakening of the legislation.
The time for ramping up the targets will come later probably in the next parliament but the Greens tripped at the first hurdle with their all or nothing approach.
Astrobleme:
No, it’s not. There are more effects on the atmosphere than the rise in CO2. If scientists are predicting temperature rises on Earth they can only do that by taking into account all effects, not just the rise in CO2. My point here is: how do they know they’ve taken into account all influences on what you concede is a chaotic system in making their predictions? How do they know there won’t be consequences that make them completely wrong?
The case HAS been demonstrated through radiative physics and climate modelling. ‘Proof’ is a mathematical concept, not a scientific concept. The modelling quantifies as many of the influences as is currently possible.]
Let me get this right: Current models that predict future temperature rises have already been tested sufficiently for you to be confident that their predictions for the next 50, 100 years will be right within their MOE, even though what they’re predicting is unique in earth’s history?
Just today there’s a report in The Age that we have in fact been warming over the last decade, when it was previously thought – even by AGW proponents such as Tim Flannery – that we had been cooling. Scientists thought one thing and now all of a sudden they think another. Confused? I am. And you are confident that they’ve got the science nailed down. Give me a break.
Ian Mac is the one Lib who has come out of this with credit. He was very good with Fran this morning, very curt, no nonsense, no tales out of school. Contrast with Tony Abbott at 6:25 – absolutely no substance.
What amuses me is the relatively unscathing way most commentators, especially the ABC, are presenting this issue.
Sure, there are a few exceptions, but mostly it’s represented as just a blip along the way, all the ups and downs, contradictions and back-stabbing are totally explainable, and once they settle the leadership the punters will flock back. A little annoying it’s taking so much time, but hey, the Liberal Party is a broad church etc. etc.
In other words the Libs are being treated as something that makes sense (or at least can be made sense of), rather than totally chaotic and out of touch on just about everything.
Socrates…1230
What do you think was his target? The ETS or Turnbull; if the latter, too early, methinks, to draw that conclusion!
Steve K, I agree that the Government needs to ramp up the ETS ASAP, but the Greens are too interested in posturing and will suffer at he elections for it. When they have the BOP (and maybe if) they will know the meaning of pressure. If they side with the opposition to block Rudd ramping up the ETS in the next few years, they will be toast.
Tom.
Soc
thanks for that.
Understand that capital cities need power but don’t understand why they need to be connected to each other.
And take your point on black coal but wonder (despite our supposed Federalism) whether Vic would put itself at NSW’s mercy in this way. Would need pretty powerful reassurances of security of supply.
The Oz says Hockey and Abbott have ruled out a leadership spill. With the only two viable contenders out, it looks an awful lot like Psephos was 100% on the money.
Truffles to stay, ETS to pass with a few double-crossing the floor.
We’ve seen two really ballsy performances from our pollies in the last few days, Rann and Turnbull have really stood up under incredible pressure. Whatever you think of them, you have to admire their front.
BB
Sam Maiden from the OO calls it like it was.
New description of Robb on Shynews: Bastardly
Zoom
The connections between capitals I mentioned are just the most convenient ways to link up the sources with the demands.
As for putting Vic at NSW mercy, that was exactly the sort of thinking that led to the current mess. But as we move towards a regime with different suppliers into grids we need regulation of the market anyway. In fact we already have it to a degree. So with that in place there is no rational reason why a power supplier will prefer to supply to its home state rather than another. Qld and NSW sorted this out years ago; it can be done.
Even without climate change, an effective interstate market is a rational thing to do if you want the cheapest power. It increases security. But you can’t get such a market without grid links capable of delivering power from interstate suppliers.
Laocoon
I was assuming the latter. I can’t believe Robb, as the former shadow Minister, seriously thought they shouldn’t do an ETS deal in his own portfolio, after Macca won generous concessions.
After sacking a few ministers, back to the more usual incompetence of public administration in NSW….
http://www.smh.com.au/national/metro-critic-says-rail-plan-out-of-step-with-world-20091124-jhey.html
So Kevin Andrews is the only one putting his hand up against Turnbull.
Rudd must be killing himself laughing.
Abbott has ruled himself out, so do the sceptics now turn to Kevin Andrews or Andrew Robb?
Minchin surely will resign from the front bench if Turnball and McFarlane are to prevail?
Kevin vs Kevin in 2010?
Socrates…
My warped mind goes back to the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand…took half a dozen attempts, but they eventually got him, when he turned down a blind alley or the car broke down or similar innanity
BB
I don’t think the ABC have been unscathing. I thought they were even handed. Here is an excerpt from Lyndal Curtis’ piece on their website “Turnbull in a corner as Liberals combust”:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/25/2752546.htm
Likewise, the 7.30 Report and Lateline last night were both polite but blunt, using words like “chaos” and “divided” to describe yesterday’s meeting. Coverage of Malcolm’s “I’m the Decider” speech was not flattering either.
Kohlers take this morning ;
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/ets-cprs-malcolm-turnbull-rudd-senate-pd20091125-Y4S48?OpenDocument&src=sph
For those wanting to help the Liberals out of their leadership crisis, there is a poll on the Advertiser website now. It gives an even wider range of choices, including Chris Pyne and Sharmain Stone, but sadly not the brilliant orator, Wilson Tuckey.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26398308-5006301,00.html#vote-now-form
Out of loyalty, I stuck to my previous choice of Kevin Andrews.
Bad news for Bolt and his Denialist brethren. The globe has been warming over the last ten years.
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/warming-diagnosis-beyond-worst-case-20091124-jhco.html
Turnbull on AM this morning with Lyndel Curtis:
“There was a clear majority in the party room”
“On what basis do you declare that majority?”
“On the basis that I can count”
Today’s “Daily Terror” is ramping up the scare campaign on an ETS costing an average household an extra $1100 per year. So I guess Murdoch has put in his lot with the sceptics.
What a coincidence, so is Neil Mitchell on Talking Liberal 3AW.
If the unofficial vote / concensus on the ETS was so close (whatever the numbers may be), and if we assume all who want the ETS want Turnbull and all who oppose the ETS want him gone….
Once the Nats are removed, there WOULD be a majority supporting Turnbull within the Liberal Party if it came to a spill. The Nats don’t get a say, do they?
Thanks Dave.
I think that piece by Kohler relies on completely faulty logic: first it assumes that coal power operators ar entitled to their pre-ETS profit stream forever, when people have been saying for years that they should be paying for the cost of the pollution. In reality producers will pass the permit cost on to consumers, so they won’t go broke unless they produce energy with very high emissions. Those are precisely the people we want to close down. In fact, Hazlewood should have closed down in 2005 but was given an extension by Bracks. No compensation deserved.
Second coal miners are more dependant on the international market for prices, not local power operators. Again, there is no compensation for changes in the international price. Everyone knows that is coming, and it has been factored into their share prices for some time.
Kohler has just bought Mitch Hook’s coal industry line, which is pure self-interest and should be ignored. Dissappointed; Kohler normally does better analysis than that himself.
Another enthralling day in the life of the libs
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Turnbull-wins-support-for-emissions-trading-deal-pd20091124-Y4DY2?OpenDocument
If there is no DD trigger, there cannot be a half-Senate election before July. No PM is going to call a Reps-only election.
DaveM
Yes, perhaps this week. A key issue for Turnbull’s longevity is that I suspect some people in the pro-ETS camp would be unimpressed by his style in effecting the outcome; added with Grech affair blah blah, all the issues of his judgement will see some of them sooner or later supporting an alternative
I’d say it just suggests that the scientists don’t know whether they are coming or going. One of the most circulated stolen emails is this one:
AGW proponents such as Tim Flannery thought we were cooling and now it turns out we were warming. Yeah, these guys really know what they are doing.
Gottliebsen who writes on the same website has been running this nonsense for quite a while, now kohler is doing the same
Not on the Liberal leadership.
It says a lot about how the Libs view their chances at next election when those wanting the leadership are not prepared to step up to the plate now.
Dio
Thanks an interesting link. From what I have read the real clincher on warming is actually rises in ocean temperature not the atmospheric readings we all focus on. Ocean heat is the main driver of weather patterns. Consider how El Nino and La Nina affects our weather.
About 90% of incoming heat goes into heating seawater, 7% into melting ice, and the rest (3%) into heating the air. The oceans are heating up, so the rest follows as an inevitable consequence.
Ok, let’s assume you are right then why would anyone just naturally assume it was all BS and do nothing rather than assume it could be true and so had better do something?
Z@1237:
Basic good management.
The Tasmanian power can be used more extensively via the underwater link. If a power station goes down, either for normal maintenance or from failure, it is easy to take up the slack.
We’ve got a number of different weather systems – it could easily be that Melbourne, say, needs more power for a few hours than Sydney because of a heatwave or cold snap, so excess from one grid can be shunted to another.
Interconnectedness comes with its own problems, however. A catastrophic failure in one system can propagate to another via the links. This has happened elsewhere in the world, and it could happen here.
triton
Flannery is not a climate scientist, and he’s a bit of a dill actually. A couple of emails which don’t prove much anyway, are meaningless amongst thousands of peer-reviewed articles.
The idea that thousands of scientists are all in on a conspiracy, which funnily enough was NOT mentioned in the emails, is ridiculous.
One day, when it’s really hot, crops are failing and the world has millions of climate change refugees, some peoples are going to look back and curse their parents and shamefully admit to their friends “My Dad was a Denialist too.”
BB,
Your point about the ABC presenting this donnybrook being nothing at all extraordinary (that’s only when it’s the ALP factions openly squabbling) has validity, and Tony Jones attitude during his interview with Brandis was a case in this point.
All the same, on 7:30 Report Uhlman repeatedly called Libs in “disarray”. On Lateline, the ABC’s woman reporter (I’ve not seen her before) concluded report by saying that Rudd would be happy about the “uncertainty” of the Libs leadership.
I agree with you, for the reason you’ve given. How many times do I have to say it? Every time a post of mine expresses sceptictism on the science everyone assumes I’m implying that no action should be taken. The science and whether action should be taken are two different things.
Let me say this for the last time: I SUPPORT THE CUTTING OF CARBON EMISSIONS
Don
true about interconnectedness and catastrophic failures. Wouldn’t you say that is rarer now with modern control systems?
Hemingway@1267:
I would rather that, as seems to be the case at present with regard to the Liberal party room problems, that our ABC presents the facts in as dispassionate a manner as possible.
Onya, Socrates (#1241)
We are one nation, indivisible (as WA discovered way back when it tried to secede).
We are the nation of “droughts and flooding rain … flood and fire” which regularly wreck transport, communication, electrical & water provision infrastructure on a massive & massively expensive scale. Our main river system waters four states; if you check, you’ll find this reality was one of Federation’s most powerful drivers.
National infrastructure systems are the only ones which make sense, especially in eastern States, ACT & NT, and we’ve been slowly working that way since the 1890s’ Federation conferences: National telecommunications, national highways, national rail lines …
Interstate power grids exist – the Snowy, Q/NSW, Vic-Tas – so power grids linking all states & territories except WA (& even WA if crossing the Nullarbour becomes feasible/ necessary) make sense.
Some interstate water grids exist, though not as efficiently as they could. SEQ’s water grid will, if hotter drier weather continues, almost certainly be linked to existing northern grids (piping tropical deluges south), and to the SEQ/ N-NSW (already proposed in the lead-up to Election07) – so a “Cape-to-Prom” water-infrastructure grid really only needs the will & the money to build it. And if we built the OTC and Ghan, we can build water pipelines from Darwin to Adelaide, and wet-north WA to the south – getting more feasible as mining in north & central WA expands.
All that stand in the way are interstate rivalry, the “I don’t like it so none of you can have it” brigade, the use of the issue for inter-party political bastardry, and political civil war of the sort we saw yesterday … and MONEY …
And, as Oz history & the last few years’ opinion polls show, national infrastructure is Aussie taxpayers preferred way of spending their taxes.
Socrates@1269:
You’d certainly hope so, and many millions have been spent trying to make it so.
However, they still occur. See this article from 2008 about a cascade of powers stations forced off line by failure in another part of the grid:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article4016552.ece
Flannery is the chairman of the Copenhagen Climate Council. Even if he’s not a climate scientist, he should at least know what the science says. Anyway, it’s not just him. My impression is that there’s been a general belief that we have not been warming over the last decade. That email is from a climate scientist and he ought to know too. Now, suddenly, the story has changed.
I don’t say there’s a conspiracy. I just think this is an example of the uncertainty surrounding this issue.
Bob Brown is presently flying off the handle in the Senate. Good stuff.
OPT 1271
Thanks
I agree with your comments on the need for a national approach to rail too. The industry suffers terribly from unnecessarily high costs as different niche suppliers pander to the standards in each state jurisdiction. We don’t even have common standards or speciications for components like brakes. The existence of different safe rail operation codes of practice I find particularly annoying; they can’t all be the safest approach for rail staff.
Hopefully SA wil adopt some of QR’s specs in their current Adelaide network upgrade. That would be a good step forward IMO. I often wish we could just get the Federal govt to mandate QR or ARTC standards for all new rail work. Then we would have a national market for rail rolling stock and infrastructure and might actually make rail freight able to win back some market share from trucks.
Triton just point out to me (below) where am I referring to you as one of those people who would take the negative stance.
triton
There is uncertainty. Remember the IPCC said it was 90% certain that AGW was real, so there is a 10% chance it’s not.
In SA, Ch 7 has released Chantelois from her exclusivity contract so she can talk more widely to the media.
It sounds like she is going to take a lie-detector test. Rann has refused (in 1997 he asked a Lib to take one in a moment he probably regrets now).
Lie detector tests are very reliable but not perfect. They are about 95% accurate depending on the circumstances and US police use them all the time and swear by them. There has been a long running debate in the US that they should be admissible as evidence, as they are much more reliable than eye-witness testimony and lots of other things that are allowed.
GB, the implication looks clear to me. Why bring up taking no action if you weren’t addressing that to me. That’s how it looks, but if I’m mistaken I apologize.
It must surely be frustrating being impotent and irrelevant in the political sphere!
Just finished watching Bob Brown getting quite hysterical in the Senate closely followed by the village idiot Fielding who was at his best or worst depending on your point of view.
All because Rudd wants the Senate to sit longer hours today to consider the legislation!
Now Barnaby is working himself up to his normal confected rage! The people who elect these idiots should be “forced” to sit and watch these characters in action on a daily basis!
This is a good article on how lie detectors work.
http://people.howstuffworks.com/lie-detector.htm
You can sometimes fool them by causing pain (biting your cheek or putting a tack in your shoe and standing on it) when they check your baseline levels for telling the truth. That masks the increase in blood pressure etc when you lie because you DON’T stand on the tack then.
Triton’s debating tactics are typical of the denialists – ignore what 90% of reputable climate scientists are saying in peer-reviewed journals, focus instead on a handful of rogues and on silly media beatups about emails quoted out of context. Muddy the waters, create confusion, prey on the fact that most lay-people don’t understand the science and only know what they see in the media. These are *exactly* the same tactics used by anti-evolutionists, and also by people who argue that HIV doesn’t cause AIDS. (I know this debate well having spent most of the 1980s on it.)
Maybe, but all we are talking about here is whether we’ve been warming over the last decade or not. That’s just the measurements, not even the science.
Why anyone would trust one of those things is beyond me. It doesn’t detect lies. It just detects tiny changes that are interpreted as lies.
I’ve heard differently. I’ve heard that you only need to contract certain muscles to throw it out. Then there is the possibility that when you are asked the crucial questions you’ll be so nervous about the reliability of the machine that your answers will look like lies. I know they calibrate it, but only with questions that they already know the answers to, so you are not going to be nervous. It’s madness to take one.
My favorite exchange from MT’s presser (being quoted by family members to each other several times since and quoted from memory here):
Journo asks question.
Malcolm: “Come on, you’re smarter than that.”
Journo: No, I’m not.
Even if he wanted to, Rann would be a fool to submit himself to something like that. It would just feed straight into the beat-up and desperate grab for ratings that Channel 7 and possibly 9 are seeking.
Remember the circus around the lie detector tests of the fire bug suspect that Channel 9 ran a while back. They ran the test quite a number of times on the poor simpleton who was clearly mentally disturbed and got different readings every time!
Ms C is in that same category in my opinion and the test could turn up “any” sort of result on “her”! I think if you did one on Barnaby or Fielding you would end up with the same circus!
As Annabel Crabb wrote:
And the ACTU gathered to draw up a new anti-WorkChoices campaign highlighting Andrews’ role and usual bungling …
Those who suffered from his dismantling of Australia’s rigorous Pharm-testing regime, and those who died or are still suffering the side effects of inadequately tested rheumatoid, diabetic, bone-uilding etc drugs sharpen their knives, tongues and find common causes with one another & the ACTU …
Those still appalled by the racism exhibited in the treatment of Dr Haneef etc … And those suffering because the the Haneef case caused desperately-needed OS medical staff to rethink their desire to work in Oz …
And everyone who can’t stand RCs, especially right-wing, pro-Vatican hard-liners …
Me? I’m thinking of taking up any & every religion with at least one god who answers prayers: Let it be, Dear Lord, let it be!
I’d like to know how they get that figure. The only questions that really matter are the ones that only the suspect knows the answers to, such as, “Did you murder Mr X?” If you were able to independently verify his answers, you wouldn’t need him to take the polygraph in the first place.
triton
The accuracy is verified subsequently.
scorps
You could argue that lying is such a natural state for a politician that it wouldn’t register, but that would be unkind.
As George said in Seinfeld “It’s only a lie if you believe it’s a lie”.
Forecast for Canberra is rising temperatures and possible thunderstorms. That’s the weather forecast.
The Senate is hysterical. Apparently, Senators are getting lots of e-mails (!) saying how bad the ETS would be for them.
Triton, there is justification for uncertainty about many things, but there is no justification for uncertainty about the fact that an increased atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide will make the planet warmer than it would otherwise have been.
#1257 – Kevin Andrews? ROFLMAO.
Do the words “Dr Haneef” ring a bell to anyone in teh Liberal Party? The man’s damaged goods. At least Turnbull waited until he was leader to poison himself with the Grech Affair. Andrews’ cards were marked over two years ago.
Dire.
“the”
Good morning, bludgers.
Sleep well, did we?
The Nats and Greens are conspiring to waste the whole morning in the Senate by arguing at endless length against the extension of sitting hours, which the government has graciously extended to them so that they can have more time to rant against the CPRS.
For people that spent unhealthy amounts of time on a political blog, you don’t know much about politics do you?
Andrews is a stalking horse for Abbott.
Adam they can filibuster can’t they i mean if they really wanted to the Nats and Greens?
Psephos
Is it possible for the Senate to keep itself talking in order to avoid a vote on the substantive issue this week?
Burgey lets not forget Andrews was also Workplace Relations minister too
If Andrews is a stalking horse, and he succeeds and he is duly replaced, we would have had:
Howard, Nelson, Turnbull, Andrews and Andrew’s successor in the space of three years.
Would that be a record?
Abbott must have a subtle and brilliant strategy then, having supported Turnbull last night and this morning.
Abbott is unelectable and knows he is unelectable.
Liberal partyroom meeting called for 1pm.
The benefits of a Kevin Andrews/Wilson Tuckey Liberal leadership team should not be undererstimated. They could ensure Australia has a stable majority government for a decade, if you know what I mean.
Those who appreciate these benefits should log onto the Advertiser website now and vote for Kev!
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26398308-5006301,00.html#vote-now-form
Kevin Andrews needs our support. Currently he is lagging Hockey and Turnbull in this poll. With a bit more encouragement from distant friends, Kevin might still have a go.
Further to what I said in relation to this, here is a record of the quote!
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Turnbull-wins-support-for-emissions-trading-deal-pd20091124-Y4DY2?OpenDocument
There was some discussion the other day about bikie/terrorism laws (in the context of the Rann government in SA originally): this article is an interesting and disturbing read about the way these types of laws (reversing the onus of proof/presumption of innocence etc) actually end up working in the UK. Summary: a guy with mental health problems, no prior convictions, and who is not suspected of any criminal offence is now in prison for nothing more than maintaining his (former) right to silence.
Yes it is, but part of the Wong-McFarlane agreement was that the Libs would support the bill being voted on this week. Rudd made it clear that the agreement was only valid for this week.
Andrews the Wooden Stalking Horse.
Interesting how many won’t challenge. How many would put themselves forward if there were a spill.
Penny Wong was talking to Price this morning. For the first time I heard her speak plainly about the cost to households. She said that if a low-income household could expect increased costs of approx. $900 per annum. Compensation would be about $1000 so that household would be in credit.
People are up in arms because they haven’t heard enough of talk like that. The hip pocket is the only thing that matters to many so the Govt. has to make the story more simple than fear of CC.
Listening to Price’s callers is an education in itself. They don’t seem to ferret out info for themselves and just rely on Barnaby’s Tv grabs and whatever RW radio tells them.
Oz,
That would be tactics (tee hee) meeting, woul it not?
What BB should be “flying off the handle” about is Christine Milne’s intransigent stupidity in front of TV cameras. Stridently berating the ALP’s position on national TV, stating categorically that Greens wouldn’t alter their policy; then responding, to about the third reporter to ask if she refused to deal (she ignored the others), snootily tossing her head & reluctantly sniping “My door is always open,” effectively disbarred the Greens from any role in the legislation’s negotiating; thereby ensuring the legislation would be weakened, rather than strengthened … yes, I did record it!
As matters stood when Penny Wong started re-negotiating the Senate draft of the Bill, if the Greens entered negotiations, she needed only two others to have the Bill passed; and that could have been achieved by having some Liberals take to the Loos when a division was called. Those Liberals would have come from CC believers, rural reps with NFF support behind them (BIG on carbon credits, sustainable farming, selling sun & wind power “to the grid”), those with strong links to industry – which wanted an internationally viable scheme.
Once Milne slammed the door shut – and if she didn’t rethink her approach – Wong needed seven supporters, and they had to be Liberals.
This is what I said last night!
Turnbull should’ve said that everyone could have a conscience vote.
http://www.vexnews.com/news/7445/its-on-courageous-kevin-andrews-joins-the-fight-for-the-heart-and-soul-of-the-liberal-party/
Any serious aspiring Liberal leader (e.g. Hockey) knows full well that it’s much better to let Turnbull absorb the damage of this ridiculous ETS charade followed by a thrashing at the next election before moving in for the kill after the election and having a run at an election which may actually be winnable three years later when Labor will no doubt have started a long, steady decline.
OzPol,
No point talking to the Greens: no result without Fielding and that was never going to happen. Not a single NatLib would defect.
Interesting the meeting has been called today. Denying the opponents time to gather the requisite numbers?
ShowsOn,
A conscience vote would have shown that Malcolm has lost control. His leadership would be untenable.
morning fellow desperates
Who is the leader of the libs today???
Gusface,
I won’t challenge. Promise!
Let’s just say that Turnbull weathers the storm for now, and the barely-damps hold sway over the trogs.
Is there any real reason why the Libs would want to stay in coalition with the Nats?
Triton
I think the problem here is that you are demanding more ‘proof’ than is actually required by science. It is no mystery that we cannot predict the future, so claiming that because we can’t predict the future we cannot know if AGW is real is a pretty flimsy argument. I don’t think you have much experience in the natural sciences, how on Earth could anyone prove what is going to happen in the future? The only thing we an do is model it. If you have a problem with the models you’ll have to take it up with the modellers, or create your own. Look at the literature and check what they do factor in, I think you’ll be sruprised. They look at albedo changes, solar variations, atmospheric composition changes, volcanic eruptions… But I don’t know everything here.
If you have genuine questions, take it up with a modeller (Like Gavin Schmidt at RC). Heck the GISS Model E is available to download… Play with it.
As to whether or not there has been warming over the last ten years, it depends on what measurement you are using. Most show a very slight warming, UAH (one of the satellite measures) shows a slight cooling. BUT all of these have a margin of error, they aren’t measuring the ACTUAL global mean temp they are an estimation of the GMT. Ocean heat content on the other hand has been surging lately, so we can rightly expect that air temps will continue to rise – especially as we head into an El Nino.
One other thing to note is ‘when’ did Tim Flannery declare cooling. Early in 2008 there was a big dip in global temps. That meant that 2008 was a relatively cool year compared to the rest of the noughties, by about May 2008 there was quite clearly a ‘cooling’ trend since 2001… But that is a meaningless statistic, short term trends like that are meaningless. If you consider the decadal trend (which is what the IPCC uses), the trend across decades, there has been consistent warming for some time.
Socrates @ 1301: The “Federal power” record to beat is 10 December 1949 to 2 December 1972. So Election 2032 (or thereabouts) as the earliest whatever the conservative party/ coalition is called can win government. I won’t be around, so have a few for me!
Spill at 1pm.
I don’t think the Senate can filibuster: there is a time limit for each speaker. But they can put up motion after motion which would have the same effect.
Tactics-wise, would it be to Turnbull’s benefit if there is a spill? He has the numbers in the Libs. It would be put up and shut up time for the trogs.
A win would give him a platform to sack a few shadow ministers. It would also give him a platform to call for party unity.
Cormann is now speaking against the Turnbull deal. The rebels have not surrendered.
Mark Matias Corman down as one Liberal floor crosser.
Oz,
Here we go again: spill, no spill …
Did MT call the meeting?
Blood letting in the Libs. Kevin Andrews as leader? How many elections do they want to lose!!
was that Xeno on before him?-whoever it was, was agin the ETS
MT called the meeting, his office has confirmed a spill.
Cormann is sounding uncharacteristically subdued in supporting a delay.
Q. What is the difference between a Liberal rat and a ship’s rat?
A. Liberal rats cause the ship to sink.
Gus,
That was X. He called for sitting hours to be extended. Did not want a NatLib guillotine. Voting on it ATM – division required.
Diogenes,
That would indeed be unkind!
Spot on, of course, just as long as “dispassionate” doesn’t mean the ABC should ape Skynews and mendaciously play down the severity of this ETS-triggered rift in the Liberal ranks as well as the total bifurcation between the Libs and Nats on the issue, when the same media outlets have incessantly overblown any ALP party room disputes (most recently, those in the Rees government).
Having a backbencher (Peter Slipper, MHR Fisher I think) make the remarkable claim that his leader has done a Mugabe would seem worthy of a mention, but in an exceptionally long article in ABC’s website, we get two Libs quoted who support Turnbull’s behaviour and no mention of Slipper anywhere in the piece:
Yes! The public demands blood! Throw the liberal party to the lions: Emperor Kevin Rudd will delight in turning his thumb down and declaring a Double Dissolution election over the perfect wedge issue!
Spill! Spill! Spill!
Yes Xenophon spoke against the new CPRS deal because he thinks it will lead to more water being used from the Murray to pay for plantations that exist as carbon sinks.
Triton
You brought this up:
“The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong.
- Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and a lead author of the 2001 and 2007 IPCC Scientific Assessment of Climate Change”
Ok, so what is he talking about here? What is the CERES data? He is suggesting that there is an error in the measured data… Which has happened many times before. The satellite measurements have a lot of correction factors applied to them. Remember the bucket-problem for the sea surface measurements from the first half of last Century? Remember the Y2K problem they had?
Why does it surprise you that a scientist raises a question with colleagues? What were the replies to that email (let me guess, they weren’t released with the rest of the leaks?). I cannot imagine that there was just silence after this email.
And why don’t you apply the same level of skepticism to this email as you do to AGW?
All I see is you expressing concern at the ‘doubt’, when you actually have no idea about the science. It’s the same as people who push ID rather than Evolution – there’s doubt about something…. Therefore we can’t trust it. I would say that is a load of rubbish. Don’t mistake your own personal incredularity for genuine skepticism.
Turnbull has declared the leadership vacant.
Tweets on
http://twitter.com/search?q=%23spill
Now we know why they have called a meeting for 1pm. At the meeting, Colonel von Cormann will place his briefcase under the table, next to the Leader’s legs. Then he will leave the room to “take a phonecall.” A few minutes later – Kaboom. Instant leadership spill. Shortly after, Reichsmarshal Abetz will be declared Leader.
WHAT! On radio this morning Turnbull said there absolutely wouldn’t be a spill!
It sounds like he has completely lost control of the party.
If he loses to Andrews then the Liberals will be supporting two completely different policies in the space of two days. But even more than that, Andrews wouldn’t be able to stop 7 Liberal Senators from crossing the floor and supporting the CPRS.
Psephos,
Didn’t work last time: not enough explosive.
Cheers VP,Shows
About 7 Liberals just crossed the floor.
X is voting against. I got that wrong.
Resolved in the affirmative. I guess that means Senate sitting hours will be extended.
Another climate septic talking now.
Kevin Andrews claims to be a devout Catholic conservative, but he has recently been arguing that population growth is bad for the environment; http://aefweb.info/display/conference2009.html.
Yeah, but 19 voted against the motion. That is the Greens, the Nats, Xenophon, Fielding AND 7 Liberals who just voted against their party.
What a hoot it would be to have the first question in QT asked by a new Leader of the Opposition!
Labor Members would be unable to contain their mirth!
QT this arvo should be a bottler, no matter how the spill goes.
Govt tactics will be interesting.
SamMad
# Turnbull will call for show of hands on leadership spill at 1pm. 13 minutes ago from web
But if it is a tie, does that mean the opposition leader chair will be left vacant until they can reconvene another spill?
Did you get the names of the Non-magnificent 7? It’ll be in Hansard.
fielding telling the senate the Facts about the CPRS
Ummmm
Proof pls Senator F.
Hold the phone-he is now attacking the Nats for trying to negotiate.
Libs had a tie before. Gorton wasn’t it? He stepped down.
…and then call himself the winner..AGAIN ?
That means it will fail. That means there won”t be a vote.
Andrew Laming rang Price today. Said wtte
1. He sits in a marginal electorate – people want something done.
2. He only voted with Turnbull because he knows this bill is not permanent and the Libs can change it later to what they want or discard it.
Tony Abbott virtually said the same thing.
If the govt is smart they’ll lavish praise on Turnbull. Nothing would infuriate the Lib backbench more than that.
Fielding is hilarious!
Mr “Curstello” and I am laughing so much, I forget the next thing he said which was even funnier!
Hope some one can post this speech in U-tube!
The arctic sea ice extent for November is tracking at or near the lowest ever for this time of the year.
The UAH satellite has the temperature for the last few days well above the Cooler’s favourite: the hottest ever year of 1998.
Separately, gravity tests are showing staggeringly large ice mass loss for Antarctica.
The majority of earth’s measure glaciers are losing ice mass.
Sydney Harbour has tropical fish in that now survive the winter to breed in the following summer.
Fish are going deeper to find cooler water. They are going further north; or further south.
Plants are flowering earlier. Insects are breeding earlier.
Calcium carbonate ocean dwellers have thinner shells.
Swallows are breeding in Iceland for the first time ever.
The treeline is heading uphill all over the place.
I can understand why people would be wary of satellite data, and of surface station data and even of the way glacier ice mass is measured. I don’t know why, when the majority of this data, from dozens of sources, using dozens of different techniques, nearly all points in the same direction, you would have serious doubt.
However, I have no doubt at all about what the birds, plants, insects and vegetation of the earth are telling us: ‘It is getting warmer’. The difference between people and these guys is that they cannot lie.
Honestly, the liberals are a bunch of crazy b**tards!
I think it was “erconormics”.
At the 1971 meeting there was a vote of *confidence* moved in Gorton’s leadership. One of Gorton’s supporters (Duke Bonnett) was away, and the vote was tied. Gorton was in the chair, and following the standard rules of meeting procedure he declared the motion lost, and then resigned. If the vote had been one of *no confidence*, he would have survived, or at least survived that meeting.
If there is a show of hands and it is close there’ll be a count.
I wish MT luck (did I say that?). I want the ETS through. As Michelle said this morning, we have to get SOMETHING in place and start working on it.
F
says Rudd is a shady saleman- this guy is really depriving the asylum of a good inmate
sykesie,
There are few b**ches as well.
I don’t think it is a good look for a party to kick itself when it is down.
Unseemly.
Fielding
“I am an Engineer,so I know science”
FFO
ps he just gave a plug to his website
Boer,
lol, Bernard Woolley would have something to say about that particular use of words.
Holy crap the spill is on!
Posts on #spill are going busters. Wooden Andrews is copping heaps.
So after this leadership spill fails, which front benchers or shadow cabinet members will resign?
The author has already confirmed that it’s genuine I believe. Anyway, the email was just an example of a scientist admitting that warming was not occurring. Flannery was another. Are you disputing that measurements had indicated that we hadn’t warmed over the last decade?
I’ve never claimed to have a good understanding of the science.
Are you saying that only a climate scientist is qualified to be sceptical? People are entitled to not accept some scientific proposition for whatever reason they like. I’ve given you a bunch of reasons why I’m not convinced about AGW, and none of them are ideological. I just look at the claims of scientists and they don’t convince me. That’s just the way it is. What does it matter?
Apart from my own feeling on it, why should I assume that all AGW proponents are right and all sceptics are wrong? Have you actually read any criticisms on sceptic sites? Are you able to analyse them and see that they are wrong, or do you simply assume they must be wrong because they’re on the wrong side?
“I am an Engineer,so I know science”
I’ve heard the same refrain from “engineers” who claim that the Twin Towers in New York could only be brought down by explosions detonated inside the buildings, not by the two planes that crashed into them. You can be trained as an engineer and still be a lunatic.
Turnbull, the Leading Leader who Leads.
If the spill fails half the Libs are screwed. If the spill wins they all are.
Turnbull didn’t discuss the leadership at the shadow cabinet meeting according to Sammy Maiden
http://twitter.com/samanthamaiden
Trubbell,
That was last night, for about ten minutes.
GOLD
Ain’t that the truth!
Here’s the Adelaide Advertiser’s front page today:
http://www.news.com.au/common/imagedata/0,,7210833,00.jpg
And we were deluding ourselves that the Libs ETS squabble would blow Rann’s “friendship” off the front pages!
The dynamics of politics really changed last night, as Annabel pointed out on LL, with all the tweeting going on. The pollies really should be more disciplined.
I won’t be surprised if Turnbull doesn’t nominate for a leadership position. That will screw the party. His parting shot will be that we end up with the legislation passed and Turnbull goes out as a martyr.
triton
Of course you are entitled to be sceptical. It is excellent that you think of yourself as sceptical. Everybody is entitled to be sceptical. All good scientists are sceptical. Here on PB we are a very, very sceptical lot, as you would have noticed. So, there is no argument about scepticism.
Now: If you doubt that the planet is warming, please explain why virtually all the recent radical changes in natural distributions of the earth’s species reflect a warming planet? If you can’t manage that, then I would be very sceptical about your ‘doubts’ about this or that minor point in other spheres. I am not interested in your feelings, your religion, your political affiliations or your ideology, whether or not you are sceptical, BTW.
All you have to do is to provide a rational explanation of why so many species are behaving as if warming is happening, when you think it is not.
He isn’t going to vacate the leader position. He is going to call for a show of hands. If a majority don’t support the spill then it will just end there.
Fielding’s “I’m an engineer” comment shows what a fool he truly is. I personally am a chemist so do I automatically know everything about chemistry? My students might think so, but I know better! Science and engineering covers a very broad spectrum to put it mildly …
Turnbull, the Leading Leader who Leads.
Exactly. Just like the former American “Decider-in-Chief”.
But sykesie Steve had a chart and he said what was on it was true!
SteveK 1382. Now there’s something that would be historic, but Macfarlane gave him such a big rap this morning that I don’t think Turnbull will throw away his support to give the fruit loops what they want.
Some would even say cynical.
I don’t know. Maybe Fielding is right.
I used to envy the engineering students at uni. They had the least over sense of responsibility and the most fun.
Is Julie Bishop’s job up for grabs?
It’s going to look really bad for Turnbull when the amended CPRS bills go back to the house for a final vote only to have about 20 – 25 Liberals cross the floor and vote against the leader.
Kevin Andrews presser in 10 mins
If Turnbull was smart he would say to Kevin Andrews that he can be deputy leader if it means getting rid of Bishop.
ShowsOn,
ru at 1336 said:
Finns
That’s 0-7 for Speers!
Why can’t these people shut up?
That’s a pretty big if Showson.
Whether the deputy position is up for grabs as well or not largely depends on whether Julie has done a deal with Andrews like she did with Turnbull when he ousted Nelson.
Erica has “spoken with many many scientists”
Did you listen though???
Dio
I hope you haven’t been too scarred by the Sing-the-Laws&Rann stuff? There were plenty of Bludgers (self included) who had difficulty staying above the belt on that one. But you did stick to the politics of it, copped your licks and it is looking as if some of your earlier pertinent thoughts are now being considered by some people outside PB as well. Like the SA electorate and Rann’s mates.
Betz is soporific.
what is the twitter link for the spill?
Watching the Liberal Party self-immolate is topped only by watching Wilson Tuckey’s head explode.
To have both happen in one day will be truly orgasmic.
If Andrews was serious he’d have been photographed nude in a strip joint by now. He has the charisma of a house brick and the charm of a (WorkChoices) snake oil salesman.
Boerwar, here on PB we are not a very, very sceptical lot. There is ample evidence that a number of PBers believe in AGW religiously.
I don’t know anything about species behaving as if warming is happening. Anyway, warming is one thing, being largely caused by human activity is another, and disaster being around the corner is yet another. Climate change has occurred many times before without human cause.
TP
http://twitter.com/search?q=%23spill
I would laugh if Turnbull lost the leadership vote today, BTW is QT being televised from the House or the Senate?
If Andrews became leader more than half the cabinet would resign. LOL oooh dear.
Almost makes me think Howie should have stayed on and tried for a Berlusconi, cant have been any worse than Nelson or Turnbull and this Rubbish from the Party.
Erica is invoking Ian Plimer!
Erica: ‘Are you a scientist?’
Scientist: ‘Yes’.
Ercia: ‘Excellent, that makes 22 scientists already today. Next scientist, please.’
Glen,
Reps today, Senate tomorrow.
vp, I think you underestimate where NFF-style farmers are heading.
For years, a farmer’s best investment was a teacher/ medical (GP, nurse etc) wife whose income kept the farm going throughout bad weather & bad farm-commodity prices. These days, add a wind-turbine, or two, or more, and weather-shielded solar banks (and Banks lend money for turbines with access to “the Grid”). Also add “carbon-sink” tree-planting. For the last, add its corollary – internationally tradeable permits (there’s an Oz PDF on http://www.apec.org.au/docs/Dobes.PDF NB, google responds to both “tradable” and “tradeable” permits.
Electricity generators and tradeable permits apart, there’s money in official “green” and “organic” labels. UK & European markets & buyers prefer produce to be “carbon labelled” – for several years, on-line UK/Euro papers have run many articles on this (and tradeable permits). There are also “Carbon mile/k” ratings for getting the produce to market – a system that most disadvantages countries farthest from markets (like Oz). In the burgeoning CTP markets, both Americas, South Africa & the East are “Carbon miles” closer to major N Hemisphere markets than Oz & NZ – as NFF-types know.
As I said on an earlier thread, these issues are increasingly Rural Oz’s BBQ stoppers – also discussed over drinks in pubs, at shopping centres – in my experience, most of the way down Oz’s Eastern Ranges & their Inland side. There also discussed on Landline, Stateline, other ABC & SBS progs. One has to question why they’re not featured in the commercial MSM – wind turbine “returns” and the way solar-banks cut generator (& carbon) costs on properties & in towns. If I didn’t live in a rural area, with rural radio, TV & print, and didn’t “do the Newell / New England”, I probably wouldn’t know much either. I sure wouldn’t have heard it from BB & Ms Milne.
Most of the above is now on hold until CC legislation is passed, and the progressive NFF-types are not amused.
We need Adam to say exactly what a new leader of the opposition would say at the beginning of question time when a new leader of the opposition has been decided it’s classic.
I wonder whether Andrews just sees himself as the stalking horse to smoke out a “real” leadership contender ….
Waqs up early for a dental appointment, but she’s called in sick – so I’m here for the fun and games – the other thread has died down after yesterday’s enforced cold shower aimed at the party who now side with the sceptics
triton
Don’t stuff me around any more please. Put up on the beasties or shut up.
Mad Monk with Frau Kelly.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8-nHcCL7sc
By the way Erica Betz is talking he is a certain vote for Andrews.
Deja vu from last night. Different organ grinder.
link to andrews presser:
http://bit.ly/7nVfp
Gary Humphries on Sky Nooz looks like Colonel Sanders.
Possibility
1. Show of hands is for a spill (Turnbull may just say the spill is on even if the hands don’t say so – that’s up to him)
2. Andrews nominates and Turnbull doesn’t
3. Andrews becomes leader
4. Rudd remains PM for 3 terms when he hands over to Gillard who remains PM for 2 terms.
I think Rudd will retire on Australia day 2015.
Boerwar:
I have no idea what you mean here or what your problem is. You made one post and I made one answer.
And the Ken Doll (Andrews0 still hasn’t turned up. the media scrum chat is intertesting.
Maybe he is going to give his acceptance speech? Wouldn’t put it past him.
So…
Let’s assume that Andrews is the only other candidate. Turnbull will presumably win.
But by how much does he need to win? What margin does he need not to be wounded fatally?
Kevin Andrews’ platform:
1) Climate change denial
2) Africans out
3) Muslims out
4) Indian doctors out
5) Evolution out
6) WorkChoices back
erica talking about pumpkins and gold coaches.
he must be quoting from the latest scientific research the libs have done
10
Gusface
It hung up on me. But what is that lady journalist up to with her microphone?
http://www.thevine.com.au/blog/lukeryan/question-time's-greatest-hits.aspx
While you’re waiting for the spill, some light enterainment…
Attention climate sceptics: the earth is not cooling. This “cooling trend” line is a deliberate fraud.
http://www.aussmc.org/Is_the_Earth_Cooling.php#Barry_Brook
http://www.houmatoday.com/article/20091031/articles/910319962?Title=Is-the-Earth-cooling-instead-of-warming-No-way-statisticians-say
Ah it stuffed up the URL … will need to cut and copy that into the browser to load, rather than click.
triton
If you are in serious doubt about warming, please provide a rational explanation for why so many species are behaving as if warming as happening. Either the coolers are wrong or birds, insects, fish and plants are wrong.
Love that on the abc broadcast … “guffaw guffaw …. who would have thought Kevin”
Would they really be that stupid to elect Andrews as leader?
Turnball is a dud, but Andrews would take them further into the wilderness!
Is stopping an ETS worth another 3 terms in opposition?
Andrews of course is already the hero of the radio shockjocks, who think he’ll stop the ETS and keep those nasty boat people out of the country.
“But by how much does he need to win? What margin does he need not to be wounded fatally?”
“10″
Yes, I was thinking something like that. If 40/87 Libs would prefer Andrews to Turnbull it’s not a good sign for his future.
The coming, the coming!
Is that Annabel Crabb up front? Is she a fast runner, or is there a pecking order for the major news outlets to get best positions?
You could tell by the journos jocular chattering that they had a strong sense of the gravity of the situation when the future of a party, if not the country, is being decided.
It’s started now.
Psephos
That second link is excellent. Giving statisticians the data without telling them what it represented and asking them to identify trends was a smart bit of work.
Some mathematicians from ANU did a statistical analysis of the so called cooling trend in the Garnaut report. They argued that there is no evidence that the warming has ended.
Unfortunately people like Andrew Bolt think they know more about statistics than our best professors at ANU.
It is on not just as pill but this is the start of a split.
*does little dance*
OMG
Andrews holding up the Daily Terror!!!
Bushfire
You must love the bootstrapping extraordinaire…Andrews hols up the Daily Telegaraph at presser!
If Andrews does become leader, maybe the govt should start reinvestigating the Haneef matter!
Comparing the ETS to the GST – The Debt Truck will be replaced by a Road Train.
Oh my goodness! Andrews has flashed the “Telegraph” front page as his source for the anti-ETS mood in the electorate.
“I was in Washington last week …!”
Andrews is running, on a platform of calling off the deal.
BB
Remind what the technical definition of a ‘bootstrapper’ is, please?
Vera,
You beat me to it, yet again!
He reflects Liberals throughout the country, says he. Worry about the party room first, mate.
Live coverage of the leadership spill on ABC TV from 1PM!
This presser is pointless.
Boerwar:
I can only repeat my previous answer, which can’t have got through.
There’s no way he can win if he hasn’t been canvassing colleagues to lock in votes.
Vera: I guess that proves News Ltd speaks for the “real Australians”, ie. bigots, racists, agrarian socialists, nutbags etc.
What is the ABC doing in the party room? What about Lindsay at NPC?
Does Andrews have a running mate yet?
Minchin? Bernardi? Jensen?
Oh, when you can get on top of all of climatology in your spare time, adding the statistics degree is no big sweat.
NPC will be shown at it’s usual 3am repeat time.
What about all those unknown factors that could make climate change worse? Why aren’t you concerned about them as much as all the unknown factors that could make climate change not as bad as currently thought?
Why aren’t you worried about those factors?
Good question about Haneef and workchoices being “Baggage”
There won’t be too many journos watching Tanner!
Finally, questions about Andrews’ “legacy” from Haneef affair. Which he’s dodgy, of course.
I doubt he would be able to win if he tries to get rid of Bishop as well. That could annoy Tuckey and Jensen who are from W.A.
dodgy=dodging. Either word fits though!
Just setting up some bugs so we get better coverage than yesterday
Sadly that platform will probably fare quite will with “middle” (aka “feral racist new money redneck imbecile”) Australia.
Andrews is handling this press conference terribly, he is simply not leadership material, just as he wasn’t ministerial material.
Admitting mistakes of WorkChoices, but still saying it created jobs.
Can you imagine what Kevin and Julia would do to this bozo?
Whoa! Andrews is channeling Bob Hawke!
Andrews says he is a climate sceptic
Better people skills than MT?
Who does the Liberals’ media training. Andrews should have finished 5 minutes ago!
OH NO! He just used the term “people skills” the government is going to say he is trying to be Abbott! They will call him “People Skills 2″.
Now he says “the jury is out” on what causes climate change. He is a denier.
Remember that Oceanic Viking thing?
I’ll bet the ALP are running the PVR over this presser and will curier this footage to their Ad Agency ASAP
I think the most likely scenario is Turnbull wins the leadership contest, then goes to Question Time and asks more questions demonising asylum seekers.
Andrews will keep JB
ShowsOn,
Party pooper!
This is happening too fast, my head is a spin. What did they all vote for 3 pages in the senate that was won in the affirmative?
They’d be wise not to do what Keating did to Downer—it’s better to go easy and keep a dud in charge.
This doesn’t even SOUND like a proper leadership challenge. This just sounds like Andrews wanted to do a press conference with a lot of journalists like when he was failing at selling WorkChoices and during the Haneef affair.
Out comes the race card.
Ahh, demonising the Sudanese again.
Hemingway,
If this dud went only another dud would follow. It is open season on duds.
I don’t think he’s doing too badly, actually.
Surely KA should be collecting votes in the 45 minutes before the meeting??
I look at this result like this: 100% of Labor is voting yes on the ETS and approximately 50% of the Coalition is: Overall the result is approximately 72% of all parliamentarians (minus 3% for recalcitrant greens, fielding, and X man). 72% is unimaginable landslide territory in a parliamentary democracy. Therefore there is a Landslide! of support for the ETS! why isn’t MSM reporting that statistic? An inconvenient truth perhaps?
By the way is the X-man a not enough no-voter or a too-much one?
ShowsOn:
This is an example of your misunderstanding of either science or what I’ve posted. Scientists are claiming that the earth is warming due largely to human CO2 emissions. It’s up to them to demonstrate this with evidence. That evidence must be able to demonstrate that there are not other factors that could also explain their observations. The fact that other factors might accentuate AGW is irrelevant to demonstrating that this particular hypothesis is correct.
The fact that you use the word ‘worried’ indicates that you are still seeing this in terms of whether action should be taken, despite the fact that I must have said one million times by now that I am looking only at the scientific hypothesis that AGW is occurring.
EXACTLY! You go out talk for 5 minute about why you are running and what you think should be done differently, then you go back and get on the phones.
Unless…. Nick Minchin is doing the numbers for him.
I tend to agree with psephos – I think Andrews comes across as quite upfront and honest – even if I don’t agree with 95% of what he says. He certainly uses fewer weasel words than Turnbull.
Psephos,
He is presenting reasonably. What he is saying is Howrd II. Not enough people will buy him.
I thought the same thing myself, actually.
Andrews just used the Kevin o 11 thingo! lol
Minchin doing numbers for Abbott more likely?
[This is an example of your misunderstanding of either science or what I’ve posted.
Well done, you completely misunderstood what I wrote because of your complete misunderstanding of science.
“Inundated with Emails” – all genuine of course and not multiple hotmail and gmail accounts from Lib HQ.:-)
vp,
Very difficult to argue with your “Dud Change” theory!
Andrews would be channelling Pell.
I’m pretty sure all that was sorted out last night.
Andrews wouldn’t be going this far if he didn’t think he already had the numbers!
There’ll be a new LOTO in QT today!
Andrews seems completely unaware that Rudd could go to a relatively LATE double dissolution, which wouldn’t feel like an early election.
What is it with the DT? Is he being paid to advertise it?
I think Andrews is challenging now to get some media exposure for next time, which may be early next year or more likely after the next election.
Betcha Minchin is in there calling the favours right now.
Let’s all say KA is doing well – we want him to be the leader for Kev and Julia to play with.
What an astonishing statement. Have you read the successive IPCC reports? Have you read the Stern report? If the answer is no, then yuo should STFU until you have read them. If the answer is yes, tell us where you dissent from their conclusions, and also what your credentials are to do so.
And the voters don’t like their government being sabotaged.
Andrews is a SCEPTIC
I hope that rolls as glibly off your tongue in 20 years time when famines, wars, extinctions and sea level rise are just getting under way. Last time there was a warming (in the Middle Ages) there were only a few hundred million people on the planet. In 20 years’ time there’ll be 15 billion.
A whole new World of Pain.
e-mails! e-mails!
If Andrews is leader I’d expect the front benches to be very empty in QT they’ll all resign (they’re all Turnbull’s support essentially).
Triton
I was asking why you weren’t using the same level of skepticism in terms of interpreting what that email meant. It has no context, you need to see the rest of the discussion. He may have just been expressing his frustration at his own abilities, it doesn’t necessarilly mean he thinks there is a problem with the theory.
As to whether or not the last 10 years have shown warming, yes it has shown very slight warming, but that depends on what measure you use. Incidentally it is entirely irrelevant. There have been over the last century many periods of low warming or cooling over ten year periods, it’s the longer term average that matters. Climate is currently defined as the thirty year average of weather…
Scientific theories rely on support from other parts of science to give an account of what is happening. Presently there is almost no evidence against AGW and multitudes in favour. We do know the climate has changed in the past, and that gives us confidence that the climate will respond to the additional CO2. It doesn;t mean that some mysterious unknown factor is at work. Again, it comes down to Occam’s Razor. Untill you can describe this unknown factor, or at least describe what discrepancy it supposedly creates, there is no reason to assume something is at work.
I have read post on Climate Audit: I think they make things sound more important than they are. They complain a lot about lack of transparency, but when they get the data (like the GISS Model E, Briffa’s dendro data that Steve got in 2004, The Antarctic data from Steig) Steve doesn’t do anything substantive with it. He doesn’t publish anything. I find the site difficult to read because there is a lot of waffle and no summaries. The beauty of a scientific paper is mostly its brevity. Remember “the most disturbing image ever presented on CA”? Not that disturbing…
Watts up with That: It’s a joke.
The Blackboard: Lucia uses the manual of ‘How to lie with statistics’. Her rationale for calculating the decadal trend since 2001, is that is when the IPCC projections start. What a ludicrous thing to do. How can you calculate a decadal trend on less that ten years of data? The decadal trend is the trend across decades (like a yearly trend is the trend across several years of data) – it is meaningless to calculate this on a short term.
Jeff ID: I do respect “RyanO” for actually attempting to do something with Steig’s data and it will be interesting to read the paper he claims to be writing… We’ll see what happens. But Jeff ID is a reactionary engineer. He can;t separate his ideology from his analysis. A blogger, Delayed Oscillator, explained very carefully why Jeff ID couldn’t do the dendro analysis the way he had. Jeffs not interested.
What I see with a lot of these bloggers is not much more than political argy bargy. If they had something geniune to add to the debate they’d be publishing. Imagine the kudos they’d get if they published?
Andrews thinks he can bring the Liberal party to a unified position on climate change, that’s nonsense! Turnbull proved yesterday that can’t be done on this issue.
Assuming Andrews wins, I bet Turnball retires from politics altogether and triggers a byelection in Wentworth, and the Liberal candidate runs on a platform of climate change denial.
Just give up. Triton is a denier masquerading as a skeptic.
Kevin’s going to have a spill on an empty stomach. Someone hand him some meatybites.
I agree.
And if that happened Labor or the Greens would win the seat.
Why doesn’t Minchin run for leader? That’s happened from the Senate before hasn’t it?
triton
(a) the physics says that CO2 warms air. Not disputed.
(b) the stats say that the concentration of CO2 is increasing because of human activity. Not disputed.
(c) the stats say that the earth is warming. Some dispute but not by numerate statisticians.
(d) any doubter about (c) would have to explain why so many species are behaving as if the earth is warming. The coolers and the deniers don’t even bother trying. They know they would fail.
Not sure what is hard about any of that.
True. He could then switch seats with Andrew Southcott.
That is true but irrelevant. It’s like saying billions of people have died before without being decapitated.
The Grech affair will be back this afternoon!
Ozcar report to be tabled this afternoon.
Oz car affair to be tabled today!
guys what was the first senate vote on?
I wouldn’t advise Minchin switching to Boothby … there is a very strong possibility (or probability more likely) Labor will win Boothby at the next election.
Just overheard a comment by a journalist at the presser!
“He went better than I thought he would”
My thoughts also, BUT! Can he walk the walk!
He has so far shown he can talk the talk!
It’s all too much for me!!!
Too much excitment, where’s my medication
Does it get any better than this?
Did Malcolm know that he is being Greched today?
Triton:
Psephos:
There is nothing astonishing about it. I wasn’t commenting on the evidence they’ve presented. I was stating a general principle of science as it applies to the AGW hypothesis and in the context of ShowsOn’s question about other factors.
Is Ozcar going on the web today?
Michael Johnson said Turnbull will declare the leadership vacant today – it seems the party whip does not have a clue what is happening.
My bet is a decision to hold a leadership meeting tomorrow.
Triton
An alternative interpretation of your email quote.
http://allegationaudit.blogspot.com/
What say you?
Rudd is proving just what a “master politician” he really is!
Looks like he wants to make sure Turnbull is buried so deep that there will be no chance of any future exhumation!
Mesnwhile on the Liberal Party CD Player:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcjAgbMQBXs
Does Rudd know what’s in teh Grech AFP report?
here here to medication….i’ve got nothing but panadols…………oh my head!!!!! I can’t take it, Turnbul will stay but will the renegade Nationals leave…..and whio is Eric cartman’s father?????Arghhhhhhhh
Triton
They demonstarted it by modelling the Earth with CO2 emissions and without. They used physical models based on Total Solar Irradiance, volcanic activity, and albedo…
You can’t do any better, if you think they are wrong you need to demonstrate that. In science you can’t prove a hypothesis, you can only falsify it. You need to demonstrate why their method is false.
The Liberabble don’t ‘do’ Opposition well!
Is the Pope Catholic ? Does A Bear Defecate in the woods ??
Next !!!
I am sure they want to knock him off today to allow enough time to bury the ETS Legislation.
If they leave it till tomorrow, it might be too late for the deniers to do so if enough Libs still loyal to Turnbull and in favour of an ETS, cross the floor!
It’s really quite spooky seeing an entire political party going collectively insane, all based on fact-free ideology and an inability to face the truth that they were defeated at the election.
What’s even more amazing is how the media treat the meltdown as if there’s some sort of explanation other than collective madness; that there’s some kind of rational reason for all this lemming-like behaviour.
Scientists HAVE considered other factors and have found that the ONLY factor that is likely to cause such temperature increases is the concentration of CO2 gas in the air.
No one can take you seriously, you simply refuse to accept or read all the scientific evidence that says you are wrong. You aren’t just a climate change denier, you are an ignorant climate change denier who retains a set of beliefs simply by avoiding evidence to the contrary!
Has anyone read Bernard Keane’s take on Turnbull yesterday. He didn’t mince words.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/thestump/2009/11/24/turnbull-going-going/
I can summarise his views. He thinks scientists are possibly wrong because he thinks scientists are possibly wrong.
The ideal result for Rudd: Turnball wins by less than 10 votes!
Then again, all possible scenarios are good for Kevy!
Personally I think that Turnbull will get his way and that Iron bar et. al. will lose pre selection in the near future. You woulda thunk that they woulda retired BEFORE they became fossilized.
Tom
Will “Britney Speers” be wRLONg again ?
But the denier faction CAN’T stop the amended CPRS from going through. Even if Andrews wins the leadership, 7 Liberal Senators who voted for Turnbull will cross the floor and pass the CPRS just out of spite to show how pissed off they are that Turnbull was dumped.
The deniers, at this stage, can NOT stop the CPRS from getting through parliament. Turnbull’s press conference last night stating the new Liberal policy was a stroke of genius (as stupid and crazy as it looked and sounded).
WA Libs have already done the pre-selections for WA – Unca Wilson is going nowhere.
Triton, kindly answer the questions.
A vote for Andrews takes them back into the 16th century, let alone the 20th!
I suspect we’d get a repudiation of the theory that the earth rotates around the sun.
I linked to the 4th IPCC report twice yesterday, but he just refuses to read anything contrary to his current denier based views.
Hi Frank, I guessed that. I meant ‘Near future’ would cover after the next election. I should have been a little clearer.
Tom.
Hopefully live into WA.
Astrobleme:
I posted the email only because it clearly shows that he believed that the data showed that warming was not occurring. It was in the context of today’s IPCC update that warming is occurring. I wasn’t suggesting there’s anything untoward about it.
If I were the denialist that one or two, or perhaps more here, think I am, (I’m not including you in that because I don’t know) I would have been plastering the forum with those emails since the weekend and putting the worst possible light on them. Even the pollies have been doing that. Abetz did it in the Senate earlier. I’m not doing it because I’m not sure what they indicate.
I acknowledge your assessment of the sceptic sites. I suspect you are one of the few who’ve had a good look at them.
What is the division for in the Senate at the moment?
Is the utegate release only the parliamentary inquiry? Not the AFP one?
And it is.
I only look at the ones you link to. They aren’t sceptic sites, they are denial sites. The true sceptics in this debate are scientists.
Rudd and Turnbull at white ribbon day function
This is the best way to keep track of what is happening:
http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/dynamicred/
Triton
Have a look a the bibliography in the IPCC AR4. That’s a really good place to look at where this is all coming from. It’s understandable that people have problems withe IPCC’s uncertainty calculations – it’s quite a difficult thing to do. HOWEVER, e can’t assume that some mysterious force is in action (and people have tried to find them, from cosmic rays, to reductions in the Sun’s magnetic field, to Lindzen’s IRIS theory) and none have held up to scrutiny. Remember the theory not only needs to explain the present situation, it also needs to allow the Earth to drift in and out of the recent ice ages as well as heat up to the highs of the Jurassic and Cretaceous (and the end of the Paleocene), no other theory does all of this.
When a leader can only get half the party room to support him, he’s a dead man walking.
Whether it happens now or later it’s unlikely he’ll face the election as leader.
I wonder if Kev will wish Turnball good luck?
It’s the only way Rudd gets his CPRS up, if Turnball survives.
Triton seems to be saying that because something is complex it must be wrong.
Glen: Do you want Andrews as leader of your party?
sam maid
They should atleast wait for Turnbull to pay for all the Liberal advertising before dumping him.
Listening to Lindsay talking about the Future Fund brings a brief note of sanity into today.
Sky showed a clip of Turnbull speaking (no sound) at the White Ribbon do with Kev standing behind him and they made the comment that there were a lot of Labor pollies there but Malcolm seemed to be the only lib.
Evan14 Of course i dont we’d only have 20 seats with Andrews taking us to an election. He appeals to a minority of voters and his pro-Vaticanism disturbs me greatly.
Of course the only thing is for Hockey to take over but that’d be our last shot in the locker. Hockey doesnt want to because he’d lose the election anyway so would any leader but we need some stability.
Okay, Astrobleme.
triton
Here’s some challenges for you:
1. prove in laboratory conditions that the addition of CO2 does not warm air.
2. demonstrate that atmospheric concentrations are either (a) not increasing or, if they are increasing, explain how human activity has got nothing to do with it.
3. demonstrate that the earth is cooling.
4. explain why species are behaving as if the earth is warming when it is supposed to be cooling.
5. explain why glaciers are losing ice mass.
6. explain why Greenland is losing ice mass.
7. explain why Antartica is losing ice mass.
When you have done these basic climate change tasks to my satisfaction I will start to read your posts. Until then, cya. No more wasting my time.
A guy on ABC TV news says that Turnbull will easily win.
There’s no way that you can convince me that the deniers “don’t” think they can stop it!
If they didn’t think they could, then this whole charade was all for nothing.
That of course doesn’t discount the fact that you state, that they probably won’t be able to stop it but I’m sure they think they can.
That’s what they have been doing for the past 6 months!
sam maid
And there is no way Andrews will be able to stop 7 Liberal Senators from supporting the CPRS tomorrow night.
So if Andrews wins the leadership he will effectively end up with Turnbull’s climate change policy anyway.
http://twitter.com/KevinAndrewsPM
The Jesuits have been hard at work.
Morning all,
Glen went:
In which case he’s been in that state since he won the leadership from Nelson by about 3 votes, surely?
So by definition, andrews if elected, could not stop a cprs vote being brought on as well ?
The Right is doing this to make Turnbull’s leadership terminal. They have already succeeded.
Regardless of the vote Turnbull is finished, the real question is when will Abbott or my preferred candidate Hockey have the gumption to put their hand up and ‘bring out the heshion and shoot him (Turnbull)’.
sam maid
Popcorn!
Not until after the next election I wouldn’t have thought Glen
ooohh, ABC News special live into Perth dumping schools programming.
How? He would need ALL the Liberals + Nats + Fielding to support such a motion. But about HALF of the Senate libs support Turnbull.
Chris Uhllman reckons a spill motion will be easily defeated.
Toolman Talking.
Uhlllman:
As you say above, the next election is unwinnable – so neither of these two would want to go for it before then presumably. This whole situation works well for Hockey, he is perceived as moderate, smart and likeable like Turnbull but less of a self-entitled blue blood. Abbott will always seem too psychotic and unlikeable, and Andrews even as leader is no real threat.
If there is a spill, the Leader could assess the party’s policy as being to defer a vote until next year or support a Senate Inquiry. Even the Libs who support Turnbull would probably vote for that or abstain. Guess we’ll know soon enough though …
If the 7 lib senators vote with labor, labor control what the senate votes on or not irrespective of whether andrews becomes leader or not ??
Yes. There are 32 Labor Senators, plus 7 Liberals gives them 39, that’s enough to pass any motion or legislation.
Toolman attacking Labor as predicted
Thats what I was getting at in # 1583
Toolman is a dickhead. There is a Liberal leadership tilt on and he is talking about how shocked he is that the amended CPRS received unanimous support in the cabinet room!
Triton seems to be conceding that he has not actually read any of the major reports on the climate science. If this is the case his credibility on this subject is some ways south of zero and he can be ignored.
How stupid was that!? He is like Speers, he can’t even see the real story in front of his face.
He can’t! If he reads such things then it will challenge his view which he may be forced to change. He doesn’t want to change his view at all costs, he prefers remaining ignorant instead because he finds that to be more comfortable.
Turnbull IS running to be leader.
Why do politicians keep saying that the GST will pale compared to the CPRS? Didn’t the GST raise about $55 billion last year? And yet the CPRS is going to raise about $12 billion in the first year.
They can see it. They just ignore it because of their bias.
http://twitter.com/samanthamaiden
Toolman hates Rudd, or thinks he’s a phony: that’s why I discount him as a political expert!
ABC reporting that 3 liberal parl. secretaries have resigned
I think Toolman is a phony.
sam maid
Like I said on many occasions the deluded Greens opposing the original CPRS would result in the Libs mount the mother of all scare campaigns re costs etc. and the Daily Terror and Liberal Radio have delivered.
Congratulations St Bob.
Yes, very true!
Bring back from Washington Michael Brissenden.
Psephos:
I think I’ve made it abundantly clear all along that my position is not based on a thorough review of the science. The question is, if I don’t have a thorough understanding of the science, why would you expect me to have a firm position one way or the other?
ShowsOn 1603
Permits will get much more expensive as the caps tighten
and so maybe more money will be raised in future years.
On the other hand there will be less permits so maybe
less will be raised.
Toolman pales in comparison to his predecessor at the ABC.
ShowsOn,
What Andrews says is this:
That’s ‘in terms of its impost on the nation’.
Seems to me to be a fairly significant damnation of the GST.
Liberal leadership stakes! Select a Liberal leader at random!:
http://stimulatechange.org/LiberalLeaderSweep/
ShowsOn,
I got Troeth.
Twitter says spill.
The ronaldson doctrine – SOP for the libs
Sure, but as the economy grows, the amount of money raised via the GST increases! That was meant to be one of the benefits of it, it is a “growth tax” that increases as total consumption increases.
So Triton are you saying that you have been arguing vehemently without having looked at the science? Have you considered running for the Liberal party?
ABCTV is treading water.
I got Fran Bailey! lol
Sam Maiden
Abbott said on ABC2 Breakfast that the CPRS amendments will save 25,000 jobs. Are they NEW jobs, or just existing jobs? (and all the other criticisms the opposition leveled at the job saving capacity of the stimulus packages).
I got Mrs Danna Vale
What fun
Is she back from overseas? Because she probably would’ve been an anti-Turnbull vote.
No spill motion, Turnbull won 48 / 35
Turnbull Win s.
48/35 to Talc
48-35 to Turnbull (no spill). Secret Ballot
If you’ve read all my posts on the subject you’ll see that I haven’t been arguing vehemently either for or against AGW.
That’s no fun!
I got Dutton! Seriously, I did!
Ian MacFarlane for me in the sweep!
Good one! Now the ETS will be passed
LOL!
Alex Somylay
and they all have ashes in their mouths.
St Kevin still kicking goals all over the paddock
DaveM
Do ya wanna swap?
Did Alex just say ‘Malcom can go ahead and lead’ or ‘go ahead and bleed’
So now you should download and read ALL of the IPCC synthesis report before posting on the topic again:
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm
No, the question is: if you concede that you have no idea what you are talking about, why should those of us who DO know what we’re talking (because we have taken the trouble to inform ourselves) pay any attention to what you say? And the answer is: there is no reason why we should. If you want to take part in this debate go and do some homework.
I got wilson tuckey……I win!!!!
andrews dud judgement remains rock solid consistent !
So Tony Abbott needs to find six more to back him, while Hockey can’t challenge because he’ll be relying on the same people as Turnbull.
Exactly! Great analysis.
And both Turnbull and Hockey are in the sights this afternoon with the Grech matter.
Why? You’ve been engaging me in many of the posts where I haven’t argued for or against AGW. Being unconvinced of one side of the debate is just as legitimate a position as being convinced one way or the other.
Triton @1633:
If you read my post you’d notice two things:
1. I just said you’ve been arguing vehemently. I didn’t say you’ve been arguing for or against.
2. It was a joke. Sheesh.
HA HA HA
This is brilliant!
Turnball is mortally damaged!
The ETS gets through!
The sceptics on the front bench resign(surely Minchin will do so?)
The radio shock jocks will be whining all afternoon!
And Rudd has a big grin on his face!
So that you don’t come across as completely ignorant and continue to ask questions that scientists have already given a lot of hard thought to.
READ THE REPORT, inform yourself. You are unconvinced from a position of pure IGNORANCE. It isn’t like you are unconvinced after informing yourself of all of the evidence.
Hockey on now!
Is it too late to swap Sen. Garry Humphries!!!
The climate’s cooling, is it? THIS is what Climate Cooling looks like:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/River_Thames_frost_fairs
The “pits” of the Little Age are regarded as starting with 1595′s freezing and ending in 1740; before abnormally warm weather in the early 1750s (men discarded cravats, cut coat sleeves to above elbows & undid shirts almost to the waist) heralded the climb out of it. Since 1740, “hard freezing” has occurred only five times, the last in 1814.
In addition, because Norman practices died hard in rural England, weather records were collected; so climate scientists have access to substantial information on ground, river & sea-ice freezing – much collated by groups “feeding into” RS (& ?Greenwich Obs. – not absolutely sure of GO though) records. After Fahrenheit’s invention of the thermometer (1724), fairly reliable temperatures were also recorded – before Enclosure & the IR broke the old rural system, interfering with old collation processes.
As “science” was very IN from the Early Renaissance – esp in Continental universities like Wittenberg (Hamlet’s Alma Mater) and those using it as a model, Göttingen (ditto – also famous for natural sciences), and similar ones in the Netherlands & elsewhere – accurate dated descriptive and/or instrumentally-measured Continental records abound; so we know the English 1595-1740 experience was not abnormal.
There were a handful of extreme winters in C20; winter 1941-2 (halted the German Invasion of Russia) and 61-2 or 62-3, when the Thames was expected to freeze but didn’t quite make it; but neither could compete even with 1814.
There are no / nein/ nada/ etc credible records to demonstrate that the climate is, on the whole (or average/ mean etc etc) cooling; nor, extrapolating from long term records – we still have some from the ancient world – would one expect it to do so for quite some time. (unless there’s unusual volcanic activity or meteor strikes).
At least the earth looks flat, and the sun, moon & stars seem to circle the earth. And Nigerian email scams might look convincing. But global cooling???? (Although one could, at a pinch, accuse the Romans, Normans, Tudors etc, European unis, RS, GO etc etc of being part of the same communist CC plot).
Yep, 48-35 for the party – but did all the cabinet back Turnbull?
Why? You’ve been engaging me in many of the posts where I haven’t argued for or against AGW. Being unconvinced of one side of the debate is just as legitimate a position as being convinced one way or the other.
Not if you havn’t bothered to educate yourself about the topic you are discussing.
35 voted for Andrews – bwah ha ha.
It looks like smoke is coming from Barry Cassidy’s arse.
And Fecal Sadwiches will be delivered to the Liberal Party Room
Harcher says worst possible place for Lib party to be in.
35 voted for anyone but Malcolm
HA HA
So true!
I thought the tongue only applied to the last part. It wasn’t obvious you weren’t serious about the first part. Sorry.
cassidy praising turnbull, big surprise there!!!
at least troothy is out in his tinnie stopping the boatpeople from ravishing our fair shores
Talking of duds on the ABC: Cassidy!
And Andrews should resign from politics at the next election!
Considering how far ahead Labor is in Victoria, Menzies could be winnable.
Gusface
Hope Toothy’s boat hasn’t sprung a leak! Better call the navy for a search and rescue op!
They can take him to Christmas Is for processing
Vera – the Navy is supposed to turn Toothy’s tinnie out towards Indonesia. Can’t let him ashore on CI. lol
So when is the Grech Report released?
Next Newspoll prediction?
60/40?
Hopefully during Q.T.
BH
LOl, Hope he’s done a crash course in Indonesian then
Maybe I will, but I doubt it will make a difference. I’d be surprised if the IPCC report goes to the level of verifying all the science. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I would think that it only draws upon various scientific papers and studies and uses them to come to its conclusions, just like Gore accepted the hockey stick graph to come to his conclusion without delving into its reliability.
That’s funny – Toolman just talking about mistakes being made by Skynoos spouting wRONg messages from the Party Room yesterday!! Might be a little bit of jealousy going on between Sky and ABC.
This Gretch report is only the Senate inquiry isn’t it. Wouldn’t the Lib Senators allready know what was in it?
As Hartcher said :
St Kevin got an early chissy present.
Turnbull got a shite sandwich – and no way out – trouble at both ends. It disproves,
in this instance, the old saying “the more money you have, the less shite you have
to eat”.
http://dailylolz.lolpolz.com/
Oh the pain, the pain
sorry, he didn’t mention Skynoos by name but ‘other media’.
Next on today’s list of entertainment, Question time.
58/42, and Turnball’s preferred PM rating falls back below 15.
Vera – Toothy is very knowledgeable so I’m sure he’d be OK.
Maybe I will, but I doubt it will make a difference. I’d be surprised if the IPCC report goes to the level of verifying all the science. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I would think that it only draws upon various scientific papers and studies and uses them to come to its conclusions, just like Gore accepted the hockey stick graph to come to his conclusion without delving into its reliability.
How about you read it and see if what you think is right or wrong.
LOL! This statement is further proof that you are willfully ignorant instead of open to the evidence.
Why leave your self in such a state of suspense!? Just READ THE REPORT! The IPCC has produced a SEPARATE report that JUST examines the scientific basis:
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg1_report_the_physical_science_basis.htm
CORRECTION: You are wrong. READ THE REPORT.
I bet Rudd is the statesman, and lets Tanner & Swan throw the missiles.
Well Uhlmann is right to have a go at them, I lost count of how many times Speers got it wrong yesterday, but I think the Finnigans might have a tally.
All bad for the Libs
The rusted on voters will be horrified that they didn’t roll Turnball and vote against the ETS. Little l libs will be horrified that so many are opposed to it. Soft / swing voters who don’t give a toss about policy will just see a bunch of idiots arguing with themselves.
Talkback radio is hilarious, all these right wing nuts ringing up and saying they’re resigning from the Liberal Party in protest and they’re going to bring back One Nation.
Psephos, are reports tabled before Question Time or afterwards?
evan
have they dragged out Pauline for a comeback on redneck radio yet?
And the irony there is that it was One Nation preferences which gave Geoff Gallop Govt in WA in 2001
I bet they go absolutely bonkers when the ETS gets passed in the Senate!
Talkback radio is hilarious, all these right wing nuts ringing up and saying they’re resigning from the Liberal Party in protest and they’re going to bring back One Nation.
The Split begins.
Sky Nooz
cory bernardi refusing to say he supports turnbull leadership !
Albanese tables them at the end of Q.T.
Of course! Because he doesn’t.
Poodle says 48/35 is very clear cut
ShowsOn, I thought that might be the way it goes.
Now, ordinarily there is no parliamentary debate at that time, correct?
But won’t some moderate voters LIKE the fact he took on the nutcases in his party?
It suits him fine. That way when he does roll Turnbull in about a year’s time, he isn’t really “rolling” him, he’s “replacing” him at the request of the same people. Which is a request they will make once Turnbull is conclusively identified as dead, which will take an electoral pounding to confirm in some people’s minds.
However by then what party will there be to lead? Will a demoralised Liberal Party matter? If Labor keeps monopolising the middle ground and half the Lib/Nats go feral to the far right, then the Greens will do well out of it. Taking a long view we could end up with the likely Tasmanian situation at a national level, i.e. disenchanted Labor voters going Green resulting in a Green/Labor coalition which is virtually impossible to dislodge from office.
If only the Democrats hadn’t destroyed themselves – they’d be cashing in on discontented small-l Libs like crazy now and might actually be a significant force.
They just make it a parliamentary paper so it can be printed. There will be more than enough time to score political points over it outside of parliament. And if there are any adverse findings against Grech or Turnbull or Liberal staffers then it will play into the narrative that Turnbull’s leadership is terminal.
It started 2yrs and 1day ago
And he’s right: only 35 people support a candidate whose leadership aspirations prior to this week were unheard of in a contest against their leader. It is a clear cut case of deeply entrenched hostility.
Congratulations to Malcolm Turnbull on his magnificent victory, 48-35. Good to see that Kevin Andrews got s decent enough number of votes to feel apreciated.
But Xanthippe and I both felt an opportunty was missed here. The real great white hope of Libeal Leadership was not on the ballot – Wilson Tuckey!
Start the call around Australia: We Want Wilson! We Want Wilson!! We Want Wilson!!!
I trust Newspoll can’t think of any possible reason not to publish next Monday night? I hope the ABC gets Kevin Andrews or better yet, Prof. Tuckey along to comment on the result.
Pffft. Over-reaction.
It’s the most comprehensive of 3 Liberal leadership spills since they moved in to opposition.
turnbull telling gilbert on sky nooz “we now need to change the subject”
I was going to vote Liberal
at Bradfield, but now as they have shown the Emperor has no clothes, i am now voting the Sex Party, 
at least they know to shed their clothes properly.
Maybe tom hanks can help.
Change the subject: another censure motion on boat people?
I guess that’s the one thing that unites the Liberals: zenophobia!
But this was just a spill motion. If the spill got up, then who knows who would’ve put their name forward. As soon as the spill was successful it would’ve been impossible for Turnbull to win it. They may of changed Hockey’s view on whether or not to run once he knew Turnbull couldn’t win.
dave
Let me guess, Asylum Seekers?
ShowsOn, I wonder if a suspension of standing orders to discuss the report followed by a censure motion (bearing in mind the usual qualifications that it’s not the best use of the government’s time – but they’ve got to keep themselves amused in the House somehow, don’t they?) might be in order.
Screws must be turned.
One of my favourite new Labor backbenchers: the member for Blair!
Hey, I’m glad Joe is back, I’d missed the Sloppy One!
As tight as inhumanely possible.
Yep the first “new” subject turnbull raised.
hockeyjoe said the libs are going to be constructive….
QT – Boats, ha ha.
What did i tell you! Turnbull wins and just goes back to victimising asylum seekers!
Amigo, as Mr. Humphrey would say: “i am free”.
tossers!
NEWSFLASH
Channel 7 to launch new reality show
.
.
.
“get me outta here,I’m a Liberal”
Cast to confirmed
I agree with ShowsOn that Turnbull’s personal vote might go higher in the next Newspoll. Turnbull showed some backbone. But the Libs… Whether you are for an ETS or not, you can’t have been impressed.
Errr, it “wasn’t” a leadership spill! It was only a ballot to either have one or not!
48/35 “not” to hold a spill!
The Chainsaw with Frau Kelly on the ETS.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S7kTQumoxCg
Finns
Toothy and Mr Humphrey in a tinnie, I’d like to see that
You’ve got to admire Turnbull’s bravado. In his count of the joint partyroom he counted National Party members of the Shadow Cabinet (Truss and Scullion) as supporters of the ETS, while excluding all the National backbenchers from the count on the grounds that they were all opposed to it!
All this upheaval hasn’t changed the record Turnbull is playing.
And …. right on cue …. AS. He can’t help himself.
I have afeeling he may get a bit of a personal rise in the polls. The party might go down but Turnbull may get some sympathy for having to deal with the fruit loops as he called them.
On the desk?
Could this be on Kevin Andrew’s Ipod atm.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VoQ2BcJf3X8
On the desk?
You naughty dolphin you!
Of course. The Emperor has no clothes, so he got balls.
Must be why Labor is afraid of Climate Change… Xenophobia!
Hey, look I can play the stupid race card thing as well. Weeeee!
How very shocking – they drew on scientific evidence to find an answer to a scientific question. What evidence would you have drawn on, Einstein?
You need to see a Urologist about that immediately.
St Kevin thanks (and turns the knife) turnbull for supporting cprs
St Bob with Frau Kelly.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3pGGeAmktY
Turnbull may have balls but his lettuce is looking limp going by the weak questios he’s asking.
Rudd was well prepared, he’s handling the boat people questions very effectively!
Notice how quiet the Opposition is?
Tuckey and Jensen must be up the back sulking!
Does anyone know why Bolt’s comments are shut down? Has he been bad?
I wanted to thank the Liberal Party for voting for an ETS and reaffirming a global warming believer as its leader, just like John Howard who has never wavered in his support for a “comprehensive ETS”.
Turnbull is going to reshuffled the deckchairs on the Titanic:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/malcolm-turnbull-leadership-victory-to-spark-reshuffle/story-0-1225803712859
I wonder if he has the guts to sack Minchin from the Senate leadership?
Turnbull just gave Kevvie a home run on the one!
He would’ve said it is likely that they aren’t absolutely 100% sure of their findings, therefore they must be 100% wrong about their findings.
He says he doesn’t have enough staff to moderate the site (i.e. to remove all the defamatory posts against David Marr).
He’s in the corner, sobbing!
Greg Combet is very good at keeping a straight face.
You’d hope he sacks both Minchin and Abetz, and Bernadi too!
I’ll have some respect for Malcolm if he cleans out the far right wing nutters.
Shows-on…
Interesting detail added by the Oz
Diog, dont tell me you have upset Bolty with your wRONg comments again.
To his credit, Turnbull sacked Bernardi last year.
But will that just make them nuttier?
Are they replaying yesterday’s QT?
Psephos:
I assume you read my post and are delberately twisting it. My point was, as I’m sure you noticed, that if that’s what it does then if I read it I will not be in a position to evaluate the reliability of the science it draws upon.
READ THE REPORT!
You’re like a celibate virgin trying to participate in a discussion about the 10 best sex positions.
This is very curious about Robb. Last monday on My ABC702 breakfast radio, Grahame Morris said that someone will get up and make a speech that will shook the Liberal meeting of yesterday.
Did he know something about Robb? Well, we know Robb did just that. Morris & Robb are very close to Howie. The black arm band of Howie is reaching out again?
Yep and Mondays
can you be any other type?
Triton
The IPCC AR4 is enormous… It will take you a long time to read it – it is also very thorough and believe it or not most climate scientists see it as pretty conservative.
It’s fine to be skeptical, just take care that you don’t end up in the same camp as the ID proponents. Science has served us very well over the last few centuries, we should use it as a resource just as we would medicine or engineering.
The Opposition is very subdued today, looks like all the fight’s gone out of them
These Lib women doing all the whistling are ugly in every sense of the word
ShowsOn:
Keep out of this. It’s got nothing to do with the report. It’s about Psephos’s dishonesty in selectively quoting my post and sarcastically responding to it.
Same batting order, same scripts.
yapping Poodle is warned
Turnbull needed the ratsak again eh??
Who will be the first of them evicted from QT? Pyne?
It’s “groundhog day” every day in QT now!
Just keep on using the same old questions, the same old points of order, over and over and keep the discussion away from anything that might make them look sillier than they already are.
Besides they now know those questions off by heart and also the answers!
Good move by Labor:
Pyne’s heading for a spell on the sidelines.
Pyne just POOed ,Libs constipation over
I’m hoping Jensen has a major meltdown of epic proportions!
Don’t adjust your TV, normal service has been resumed.
All those in favour of being de-poodled for three days say aye.
vp
I think the ayes (will) have it!
The Anti ETS brigade are frothing at the mouth on Perth Now.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/comments/0,21590,26398392-948,00.html
The Liberal Member for Sturt has been threatened by the Speaker with a three-day time-out for poor behaviour.
That is a serious penalty being threatened.
When will the Liberals apply WorkChoices to their worker? He should be sacked for seriously disruptive behaviour in the workplace.
If it was anybody else in the workforce so seriously in error, the Liberals would advocate their immediate dismissal, no warning.
Why don’t the Liberals apply the WorkChoices principle to their own members?
Sussan Ley is getting bushwhacked. Her own fault.
mesma stamping feet again
I agree with the white ribbon principle.
No violence against women, just strangle the cat with a white ribbon.
Macklin about to shoot down the Daily Terror scare on ETS
dave,
It reverberated here. You too?
And dressed in power colors for the ‘spill’!! Must have been worried she was going to lose her job.
They never learn. They will all be on the sauce tonight.
I’m going to listen to Jason Morrison on 2GB this afternoon, it’ll be hilarious as he’s been one of the biggest anti-ETS shockjocks, and he was egging on his Liberal audience yesterday to lobby senators to vote against the ETS.
Back to union thugs now! Lord help ‘em! Rabble!
Must be time to unleash the Red Fox.
Do you think Malcolm will dare a no confidence motion tomorrow. He just might get a few reminders about confidence within the NatLibs.
so next newspoll..
65:35?
I doubt the Libs will be doing anything to make this week any longer than it has to be.
The conservatives, on the other hand…
Dutton struggling to control his breathing.
Deep slow in out…wear that rage off. deep slow breaths.
The backward-looking Liberals are beating the union scare drum again.
Sounds like 2007 sounds like the 1950s.
Boat people, unions … they’ve got nothing but fear, smear and internal division.
I reckon “other” will go through the roof. Who can the climate septics vote for?
Will Don’t Know and Someone Else top the preferred Liberal Leader poll?
Then read the original scientific papers on which the report is based. I’ll give you some references if you want. Read whatever you like, but do please stop making such moronic statements.
According to Fred Nile Christian Democratic Party, these are some of the more important issues of our time for the voters of Bradfield::
1. Jesus is the Son of God.
2. Immigration Policy should give preference to persecuted Christians
3. Australia should employ the Fijian Navy to intercept illegal immigrants
4. The Federal Government should have the power to deport any Muslim.
5. Climate Changes are natural and do not threaten to destroy the world.
Hmmmmm, do they have a Navy in Fiji? No wonder i am voting for ASP.
I personally think that Nile isn’t being completely honest with number 5.
How about:
5. Climate Change and potential sea-level rises are the Second Inundation and the government should be building an ark.
yes Fiji have those remote control battle ships that we can control from Darwin- you know like the ones the kids have
Thou shalt not tweet?
Anyone game to check Dutton’s twitter for the comments and then post for us?
Aren’t we at war with Figi?
Oops Fiji (blush)
Peter Dutton has been “warned” by the Speaker. Another Liberal with poor workplace behaviour.
There’s nothing moronic about pointing out, after people had urged me to read the report, that it would likely not enable me to evaluate the reliabilty of the science behind it. Stop being an idiot. And stop being dishonest in your selective quotation and response.
Harry tells the libs off for twittering
Well twice I told em to get back to work
Finns – how on earth could you go past voting for one of Nile’s blokes. That lot will be your saviour in Bradfield – save you from exotic pole dancing with Ms Stardust!!
M_J_Robinson:
RT @peter_dutton Warned for using twitter. Lift my game. #qt
http://twitter.com/Peter_Dutton
And you can follow him here.
http://twitter.com/peter_dutton
BH, i have saved the best for last:
Australia deserve 4G mobiles with totally free telephone call and free data, instead of being ripped off by phone companies
yes, yes, yes. If Fred throws in free sex as well, then he’ll get my vote.
BTW
I have asked the clerk of the senate as well whether its parliamentary
no answer yet
sex isn’t free?
Finns,
What about pay-for-sex? I don’t think he believes in free love.
What the Greens DON’T sayy is that it is only as a last resort and that aged and disability pensioners are exempt.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,26399091-5007133,00.html
I think Peter tweets on GMT.
Julia’s on.
Dare you!!
Double-dare you.
Booth worker: Here, sir, have this how to vote card for your Christian candidate.
The Finnigans: Yes, but where’s the sex?
Albo’s on fire giving Truss a burst
And from another stry it seems Mission Australia is in support of the income quarantine scheme.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/25/2752768.htm?site=news
Finns, I remember an interview on Current Affair (I think) back in the 1970′s where Fred Nile was interviewed by Michael Shildberger on the subject of the film Deep Throat. Fred said words to the effect that he could testify to its outrageousness as he had seen it twice …
Bronnie,
You are a star!
#1819 oops…Michael Schildberger
Scarpat
didnt Rex the mosse mossop get in trouble for something similar
Gusface, never heard about that.
The second viewing was interrupted by constant trips to the bathroom…
(…to pray).
Mas Rewi, On my desk
What’s happening in the House? Question Time over yet? Tabling reports?
Bring on Grech’s mess!
Saudara the Finnigans, only between meetings though, from what I understand.
Only when he was playing Rugby before League.
Scarpat, that reminds me of Woody Allen, He said many of his lovers complemented him on how good he was in bed, his reply: “I know, I practice a lot when I am alone”. Cant fault his logic maybe not the methodology.
It is because he was previously named and expelled for 24 hours. The next time it happens it is for 3 whole sitting days, and the time after that for two sitting weeks.
The disaffected Libs are going feral – they are going to vote for the Nats, except they can’t in most seats and most States.
Of course there is. If you want to evaluate the reliabilty of the science behind a report, then read the science on which it is based. To argue that the truth cannot be known because reading the science is too much bother is indeed moronic.
Check out the AIG head taking a pot shot at the government in language borrowed from the “Seinfeld” episode in which Jerry dates a Native American:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/25/2753228.htm
Expect an increase in the number of “Holiday Homes” in National seats and that address being used as the principal place of residence.:-)
Comment from:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/malcolm-turnbull-leadership-victory-to-spark-reshuffle/story-e6frgczf-1225803712859
How do you vote National Party in Qld?
The Senate is now voting on Fielding’s motion to delay the third reading vote on the CPRS until after February. it will be interesting to see if any Liberals cross the floor and support this motion.
The Greens, Labor, Xenophon are all opposing the motion.
According to Malcolm Farr on Insiders, Nationals in QLD will be campaigning as the LNP while Liberal members will be campaigning as Liberals.
Take that Fielding you tosspot!
16 Liberals just crossed the floor and voted in support of Fielding’s motion to delay the CPRS until February.
How do you “preference the independents” and still have a formal vote? At some point you are going to have to choose between Labor and Liberal (unless you are in a National seat where there is no Liberal candidate)
More like take that Turnbull, half the Liberals in the Senate just defied Liberal party policy.
Very confusing when the ballot paper will have LNP for all candidates, Libs and Nats.
ShowsOn,
Did you get name, rank and serial numbers?
Won’t know until the draft Hansard is published. Considering the Senate is going to sit until 11:40 the Hansard may not be available until early tomorrow morning.
Rendering this article obsolete.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/25/2753338.htm?section=justin
Sorry! I forgot the Nationals. Only 11 Liberals crossed the floor.
When famously commenting on the use of a beach nearby to his harbourside suburban neighbourhood for nude bathing, Mossop was particularly outraged by the fact that some of the bathers disrobed in their cars and walked naked down to the beach from the street.
“I don’t particularly mind the sight of male genitalia. I’ve seen enough of that sort of thing in the dressing sheds. But I doobject to having them shoved down my throat in plain daylight”, Mossop commented.
They might use different colours for the ballot papers. Blue for Liberal LNP and green for National LNP (or NLP lol!)!
With the Qld LNP, nothing is impossible, especially self destruction!
BB,
I think that it was writer Alex Buzo who awarded the annual worst tautology prize in the Herald, which Mossop inevitably won every year.
Geezus, the Greens and Fielding have been giving the red cordial a hammering today!
I thought that most of them overdosed on it yesterday, but, blow me down, they are scoffing it down like there is no tomorrow, today too!
That Ms Hanson-Young was totally hypo yesterday and again this morning!
I wonder if they realise just how hilarious it is, and how ridiculous they look when they get on a rant that they have been hammering for all they have been worth for months.
Why should their irrelevant points carry any more weight today when they are spewed out with a degree of anger and venom, than they didn’t previously!
They are making a circus out of our Parliament and I for one, am not impressed!
I wonder what the Greens will have to talk about when Parliament sits next year?
CPRS passed and off the political agenda. RET targets in place.
They will start their concerted campaign saying that the government needs to go further, and the only way to add more pressure on the government is for there to be more Green senators.
As Psephos has pointed out on several occasions, the ETS targets will increase as the science and politics of CC progress which will make it a lot easier for Rudd to up the targets which we need to do.
Therefore the Greens campaigning for higher targets will be a good thing. I just hope everyone remembers that next year.
Somehow I doubt it though.
And they will increase security on their web servers, and those of their supporters to ensure they don’t contain material which may embarass them
Boat people? Kevin Rudd put that into perspective when he bashed up Sussan Ley with figures of non-boat arrivals and later, on indulgence with more data, the figures of on-boat arrivals: a pitifully small percentage which has remainded virtually unchanged.
The worst thing that could happen for climate policy in Australia is for Labor to lose government. If a new Coalition government gains power the deniers that make up half the joint partyroom would have a veto on any attempts to increase the CPRS target.
When the CPRS passes later this week, its a done deal until after the next election. The Libs will just want to to go away, Labor will introduce regulations that will not be looked at for 12 months.
Its a norwegian blue issue now.
Has the report been tabled yet?
Rua@1857:
i.e. dead parrot.
See
http://www.mtholyoke.edu/~ebarnes/python/dead-parrot.htm
ru
It doesn’t even start until mid-2011. But with Hopenhagen and it’s follow-up after it flops, etc, there is going to be a lot of talk about what the target should be.
Climate change ain’t goin’ nowhere. After all, a wise man decribed it as the “greatest moral challenge of our generation.”
Now that the CPRS is going to go through the real debate can begin.
Diog
There will be a lot of talk, but the legislation will be passed. The timetable for changes to the cap included.
There will be nothing in Parliament to discuss.
We don’t need to worry about the Greens on targets.
Has not Rudd commited to 60% by 2050? Not really enough to stop 2 degrees anomoly but, if the rest of the world falls into line, 60% by 2050 might stop 4 degrees or even a 6 degree anomoly.
Whatever. Budgets should factor in the need to cover adaptations to a 2 degree anomoly.
For the IT people out there, here’s an article about retrieving data from a SIM card. The guy says there is only a 2% chance of it still being there after 5 years.
The data is often backed up by the phone operator though and costs $100K to retrieve if the phone company agrees.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/australian-it/data-lost-in-old-sim-cards/story-e6frgakx-1225803660949
And I just saw that Ms Chantelois was born in Flint, Michigan. They sure do breed trouble-makers there!
No crime has been committed. It would be completely inappropriate for a phone company to hand over such data.
Michael Moore ?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Notable_natives_and_residents_of_Flint,_Michigan
Can’t see Michelle there.
I think she is completely regretting what she has done. She has gotten out of her 7 contract and has left the state.
Michael Moore!
Michael Francis Moore
April 23, 1954 (1954-04-23) (age 55)
Flint, Michigan, U.S.[1
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Moore
You might be able to request your own information though. I can’t see a problem with that.
dave
Yep, Michael Moore. And GM.
I reckon she’ll leave the country
Is telling for money the same as kissing for money or different?
The fact that Australia needs an ETS in place that will work…?
I find it so incredibly funny that some CLLR Laborites are so ingrained, so rusted, that they think the purpose of the Greens begins and ends with Rudd’s ETS.
Talk about arrogance and hubris!!!
What’s happened to that bloody Grech Report?
And it also shows how naive some Laborites are that they think saving the environment begins and ends with an ETS.
quite the lulz.
Do you have a link, Shows?
Hope she doesn’t come to Qld. We have enough nutters here now! Barnaby?
I think Brandis is presenting the Senate Report into the Grech incident now.
Yes he is, but it seems like a whitewash blaming the media!
Brandis is presenting it now.
Link!
http://webcast.aph.gov.au/livebroadcasting/
Brandis exculpates Abetz.
A disgusting whitewash!
Grech lied to the committee but no-one else did anything that was a contempt.
The committee can’t conclude that Grench *knowingly* lied to the hearing, hence no contempt.
I hope the AFP report isn’t like this one!
Grech would be given his job back and promoted!
That’s probably fair enough but what about interfering with a witness by coaching them?
it is a real worry for the coalition that 35 libs voted for that idiot Andrews, against Turnbull
Collins is getting to the point.
Grech provided Turnbull with advice over a long period of time.
Grech was offered a post in Turnbull’s office.
Turnbull and Abetz must have known that Grech was a Liberal Party operative.
Looks like the AFP got some interesting e-mails off Grech’s work computer!
Turnbull knew of and approved Grech’s relations with Steve Lewis.
HOR QT tomorrow will be better than anything we’ve seen in months.
Crikey, Erica sure has a lot of front!
I would have have thought he would have been hiding in a cupboard for a day or two!
Beyond contempt them all.
Lets see how much media exposure it gets. Ha !
Today’s leadership events has done what the AS issue couldn’t do, move the betting odds.
http://www.way2bet.com.au/odds_comparison/18031/19810/42292/Australian+Federal+Election+-+2010-2011
Psephos, is that it?
Excellent work, thanks.
GB
Malco is now odds on.
We suspected that Turnbull had a mole as he was preempting government announcements all too frequently.
Offering the mole a job could be seen as providing an inducement could it not? I’d have thought there’d be Federal laws concerning that sort of behavior.
You mean to go Dio?
More here!
http://www.way2bet.com.au/news/article/labor-firms-to-1-20-to-win-next-federal-election-at-centrebet
Is Rann safe Dio? The latest movements by Michelle seem odd.
For those who can’t link!
At least the punters know that Abbott would be a disaster.
Betfair has Labor at $1.24 and the Libs at $4.20. (Very thin market though).
Why do you get as much as $1.24 on Labor? (You’d have to get something on account of the possibility, however theoretical, of Betfair going broke and losing your money for you, but is that really worth 24% on your one year investment?)
I’m only being slightly flippant.
Oh, dear! No Kevin Andrews there!
Apparently they don’t see him as a contender!
Kevvie A does though!
Talking about Michelle’s movements gets me all excited. I wonder if she’d give me a lesson at the golf course.
Steve K she is not worth it. She’d tell others for a few pieces of silver.
If the polls don’t move very much, then closer to the election it will tighten to between 1.03 and 1.05!
The 1.20 and 1.24 are just teasers to encourage punters at this far out in the cycle!
Nobody much is betting yet.
When the money starts to flow, it will tighten right up like with Tiger Woods. 1.03 towards the start of the Masters. Not worth a bet!
No way! If only the leadership spill was tomorrow morning this information could’ve been used by the denial forces to further undermine Turnbull.
Don’t forget! You have to bring you own stick!
When Grech was all the go you could get Labor at $1.60.
So there are 35 MP’s who rate Kevin Andrews! whilst we can work out who some of them are but i would love to see the list for those MP’s are not fit to be in Parlianment
‘Malcolm Turnbull leadership victory to spark reshuffle’
ie Mal to rearrange the chairs on the Titanic.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/malcolm-turnbull-leadership-victory-to-spark-reshuffle/story-e6frgczf-1225803712859
Abbott + 6, and even with this the timing probably would not have been right for him this morning.
Abbott has to challenge Turnbull before the latter gets the tap on the shoulder to vacate in favour of Hockey.
Kiwis beat us to it!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/25/2753564.htm?section=justin
This has come down to a fight between Abbott and Hockey. Abbott must know if he waits too long then Hockey will walk into the job.
According to Leigh Sales’ Tweet the 35 votes for the spill were not necessary 35 votes for Kevin Andrews
I think the blame for the kaos should be placed squarely on John Howard.
1. He had the whole the Liberals cowed and emasculated in such a way that once he is gone, they really dont know what to do. They were so used to be told what to do by Howard, they are now just a bunch of little boys/girls lost.
2. He did not pass the baton on to Cosssssie at the right time. If he has done so, the Liberals might still be in power and we all be asking: Kevin who?
So there is a big lesson here for Labor. Rudd should serve 2.5 terms and then pass the baton on to Gillard regardless of how well he has done and performed.
So were they Abbott backers who felt that Abbott would throw his hat in if the spill motion got up?
Parties are more likely to shut about their differences in government. In opposition they all accentuate the differences.
The Finns! i actually would be surprised if Rudd was still the PM in 2015 for he does not strike me as only living for the lodge.
I suspect that Rudd has other interest he will want to follow i also think he ahs a very different relationship with Gillard than Howard ever did with Costello.
ShownOn that is a question you would need to ask Leigh Sales.
They were votes against Turnbull, so somebody only needs another 7. Turnbull is safe until February.
Yesterday and today have been defining events in the post-Howard history in the Liberal party. I doubt that Turnbull will be the leader at the next election, and am almost certain he will never become P.M., but his desire to shift the Liberals back to the centre on climate policy will survive. The next Coalition government’s climate policies will be almost identical to Labor’s. If they go back to having a sceptical climate change policy, they will be unable to build an electoral coalition with broad enough to enable them to win government.
I think he will retire on Australia day 2015. He will hand over to Bill Shorten or Chris Bowen.
Mex, i got the perfect job for Kev. Sec Gen of the UN. He better starts the campaigning right now….. sorry he has started already with Pacific Union and Hopinghagen CC.
Showy, Bill is too short and Chris’ bow is too long, where as Julia is sitting pretty
http://www.news.com.au/common/imagedata/0,,7211418,00.jpg
Chris Bowen has actually been a good minister, he potentially has a big career ahead of him and this is the problem the Liberals have for the ALP have several Bowen types whilst the Howard Government narrowed itself to the point that even out of Governmetn for two years and it still looks old.
Shows
I agree entirely.
The CPRS has become a bi-partisan issue. It has torn the Libs apart, they will want to forget it and move on.
Return to scares on hip pocket nerves is the Libs strong suit.
GB
Sportsbet has Malco $1.90 to be leader at next election.
I drove past the North Adelaide Golf Course twice today. I kept looking for secluded spots and wondered…
On Chantelois-Rann, I’ve say;
1. No-one cares if he did it or not
2. Very few people believe Rann
3. No-one is impressed that Chantelois came out like she did
4. Of the people who think he lied, almost no-one cares that he lied. They say that all politicians lie and that of course he should lie about something that no-one should know about.
5. Very few people will change their vote based on what we’ve heard
If there is no smoking gun, he’s got no problem. I’m not sure he’ll be forced to quit even if there is a smoking gun. He’ll just tough it out.
Diog, perving again?
Grech report. I thought I heard the Labor Senator, when giving her version of the report, say that Grech sent the email to Steve Lewis and a copy to Turnbull.
Will have to check her speech when it’s on the web but I’m sure that what she said because I then tried to think if Turnbull said, in Parliament, that he hadn’t seen it.
Her speech was good and gave a lot of info re the relationship between Turnbull and Grech.
Looks like the Bookies have picked it fairly well!
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,26399011-421,00.html
Greg Combet is also PM in waiting material – more impressive than Shorten IMO.
I still think Julia would be best bet. I know conservative women who are won over by her.
BH
I heard the same thing.
And she had more to say but ran out of time. I hope QT in the Reps tomorrow will reveal more.
Here is the perfect counter point to Mike Rann ……
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,26399944-1702,00.html?from=public_rss
I should add that the bookies agree with me and the SA Libs have only shortened from 4/1 to 3/1 since it happened.
I suppose that’s a significant change but Rann is still the heavy favourite to win.
Sloppy asks for forgiveness. For what? stupidity?
I think they are both too old. By 2015 the Liberals will be moving on to Greg Hunt. Abbott will be retiring, Hockey would’ve lost an election, Dutton will lose his seat next year.
Julia is only 48. She’ll be at her prime by 2015. She can keep the seat warm for a few years until Kate Ellis is ready to take over.
She’s in her prime now. Can a political prime last another 6 years?
Thanks Rua and Steve – I didn’t think I’d got that bit wrong. So it makes a lot of difference to what Turnbull was saying because his big thing was that he didn’t have the email in his possession and hadn’t seen it.
Does it make a difference that it was only a copy? I don’t think so.
And I just saw HoJoe on 7.30 report saying that they were an Honest Party made up of honest men!! hahaha
I think Kate Lundy’s not bad too but Greg Combet after Julia G.
Lundy is probably going to be challenged for the #1 ACT Senate spot by George Williams.
scorpio:
That’s not how Betfair works. The punters bet with each other and set what is, in effect, some sort of market price.
Now you’re talking. That’s the real reason the Betfair price looks so generous at the moment.
That’s a shame IMHO. What’s he like?
Ahh, good old Their ABC.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/25/2753617.htm?section=justin
dyno,
If you’re a punter, take the $5 on the Libs now and arbitrage closer to the election for a sure win.
http://www.law.unsw.edu.au/staff/WilliamsG/
Why not move Kate Lundy to the seat of Canberra and then give Williams the senate seat
Dyno @ 1949l
What is all that about! Are you saying that punters set the odds?
All your second point does is reinforce what I said!
GG
What the hell’s going on at the Willagee byelection thread?? 700+ posts on a WA byelection where Labor aren’t even running (I think). It’s been carnage over there.
It’s like the old days of Hillary vs Obama in terms of trench warfare.
Or Fraser if McMullan retires.
Williams would be great in the Senate.
He keeps denying it – and he is also more linked with McMulluen’s seat of Fraser
Pseph would know better though (not that he’d say anything!)
In light of the Liberal Party carry on do we expect that we may see an impact on the up coming by-elections or are those seats just too rusted on.
geez Wong is having fun with Nash!
Yeah true. But he would be better in the Senate.
They’re rusted on. But if the Liberal candidates win by smaller margins than Nelson and Costello then it will just start another round of debate about Turnbull dragging the Liberal vote down.
Did Cossie and Nelson take part in the festivities today and yesterday or does their impending by-election rule them out?
Yes. Let’s have them both. Thanks SO for the link.
They resigned their seats last month.
So we now have the new iMalc2.0 with added humility. That should be good.
Diogs,
They haven’t got a sex scandal to keep their hands occupied.
The attack on Frank was very low.
And Labor IS runnig, it’s St Bob’s mob who are the problem.
Kevin Andrews is trying to sound all reasonable and conciliatory on 7:30 Report. He is angling for another tilt for sure. He wants to leap frog Abbott and become the #1 candidate for the conservative wing.
SO
So does that mean those electorates don’t have a member until after the by-election?
Vexnews are barking Minchin.
http://www.vexnews.com/news/7450/leadership-its-gotta-be-minchin-lib-backbenchers-cry/
Yes.
Kevin Andrews want his views AND the views of Nick Minchin to be listened to by Turnbull.
Isn’t Minchin in Shadow Cabinet at the moment?
Correct – same with State By-elections, but any slack would be taken up by the senator/upper house member closest in the electorate.
LOL! Guy in pub says to Wilson Tuckey:
Tuckey:
GG, if their past is their future, then Nick Minchin is da man
Sitting here listening to Penny Wong, i am impressed by her patients with Barny Joyce for he is banging on about does the Government’s models include havign America and China in or out and is the model included in the budget estimates.
But Red Kezza said it right. With the joint party room so evenly divided ultimately the leader needs to decide on a position, and the leader may as well back their own position rather than the position of those who oppose him!
Finns,
For many Libs the past is far too radical a proposition.
hey everyone have a look at K O’Dwyer http://www.kellyodwyer.com.au is she Bronwyn Bishop Lite or what?
WTF is up with Joyce’s obession with does the Government make presumtions based on if America and China are in or out.
when is the Senate voting on the CPRS? got to watch this historical moment.
Centaur! Thanks for pointing that out for i have been wondering that myself.
scorpio
Yes, that’s right. Betfair isn’t a bookmaker. It’s a betting exchange. The house “cut” is much lower than for any bookmaker, which is why the prices are better (when there’s a decent market).
Quite so. I was agreeing with your comment that the lack of punters (in this particular market) is why the prices are strange at the moment.
The third reading won’t be until tomorrow. Then the House may need to sit on Friday morning in order to approve the amendments.
For all the bluster Turnbull has played this as good as anyone. He’s achieved the outcome he desired i.e. pass the CPRS with some mods, he’s still leader and his ideological enemies have resigned from the Shadow Cabinet.
A bonus is that he’s smoked out potential rats like Abbott and Robb.
The trogs thought their hate for Malcolm was unrequited. Now they know that is not so.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/firstblog/files/2009/10/wongmindreader.jpg
I wouldnt be surprise if Turnbull’s approval rating goes up in the next poll. He might be dead meat in the medium and long term, but his gungho “i am the fuhrer” approach might win him few more admirer.
Someone should do a Hitler Downfall on the Liberal comedy.
I essentially agree with that. He could not have done all that much better on CC with the cards he had.
Where he stuffed up was his response to the GFC (way too negative) and with the Grech affair (complete fiasco).
Yeah, he stood up to the nutcases and won.
The problem is, Abbott knows he only needs to convince 6 semi-nutcases to change their vote, and he will be able to knock off Turnbull.
If Turnbull makes one more stuff up, or is seen to treat the nutcase fashion impolitely, then Abbott will bring on a challenge.
What about if he told the back bench that they could have a conscience vote, and told the shadow cabinet that if they couldn’t vote for the amended bills then they should resign?
Wouldn’t that be a better way to do it rather than saying that he had the support of the partyroom when he didn’t?
Finns,
I think Turnbull would see Hitler as a loser.
When he goes down, it will be more like the Mayor of Hiroshima, “what was that noise?”
Senator Joyce’s words of wisdom #7642317:
Showy, all the punters see is that he crashed through. what they dont see is what he looked like after the crashed through, bloody, bruised, battered and all.
That would have been easier in the short-term: true. But this way if he is still leader at the next election he can say our policy is to keep the CPRS in place. Had he gone the conscience vote way, he then would have been having this week’s circus closer to the election., when the policy had to be decided.
But I agree that a conscience vote also would have been a reasonably pragmatic response to the political circumstances.
He deserves to have his approval go up. You couldn’t have asked for much more with the cards he’s been dealt.
As Joyce is an Accountant i am sure he would be aware that an Accountant would start of basing the budget on the historical value and the fact that it is an ongoing.
Clearly Joyce seems to want Wong to be a phyic
Malcolm Turnbull – Downfall
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEOwfMo38Os
Penny still calmly batting away the questions. She is doing very well.
When is the vote ????
please
Penny for PM! (When Kev retires that is)
Turnbull will be forever remembered as the person who caved in and gave us the CPRS. A section of Liberal voters will never forgive him. He is toast.
Gusace
On the news they said the Senate would probably be sitting on Friday so late Friday maybe?
True, they’ll probably give Rudd a lot of credit too for getting a big policy legislated and doing it by compromising with the leader of the opposition instead of a handful of minor party Senators.
There is a curious contradiction in that we have an adversarial political system, yet the punters like politicians the best when they get together and compromise.
Amigo, dream on. Two Wongs still dont make a white.
This from the wanker who ran against Turnbull despite being the most useless minister of Howard’s 11 years. Unbelievable.
Andrews wants the party to unite behind HIM!
How come the Senate QT is so civilised and cordial?
Just reading the comment on Sam Maiden’s front pager in the OO.
The sound you hear is the sound of Climate deniers screaming as they burn in hell.
Bolt has a lot to answer for, leadin ghtese people down the garden path, purely for his own vanity.
with this in the background.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eye0mXrl_Po
Can Malcolm Turnbull reunite the Liberal party?
* Yes 32.65% (462 votes)
* No 67.35% (953 votes)
Total votes: 1415
Where’s that from, dave?
Finns
I’m a day dream believer
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQNqk54HPdE
Turnbull has well and truly flushed out those with knives in hand and dark intentions.
No way back for the likes of robb. An appropriate name for someone who cannot be trusted me thinks.
dyno
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/malcolm-turnbull-leadership-victory-to-spark-reshuffle/story-e6frgczf-1225803712859
Vera, got a spoonful of lovin’ for you:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVr4LsFvMC0
But, against the prevailing winds here, I predict Turnbull will gain respect out there in Voterland. He’s faced down the Deniers and the Trogs and – by cheekily declaring victory (his own) – has won the day.
Ok, so he was mostly just fighting for political survival, bolstered up by the advice the Conservatives in Pommieland gave him (“Get Green!”), but it’s a win for the country and for the World. Just a small victory, but at last we’ve stopped going backwards and taken a step or two in the right direction – if even for all the wrong reasons.
The defeat of the Right in the Liberals will eventually sink in, to even their thick heads: ETS is the Game and you’re out of it unless you reform. this could be the start of something good for Australia. At last both major parties are roughly on the same page.
The number of Deniers who have said they won’t ever vote Lib again is hilarious. Of course they don’t say who they will vote for instead. One wag posted this:
Dyno,
Ah so! Shows how much a punter I am!
Strangely enough though, they (Betfair) seem to closely follow the other on-line bookies with their odds! Or the other way around.
Are they the mob that you can bet on something to “lose”?
I agree on the one hand this may be good, but the rest of the Liberal and National parties get to govern too when people vote for them. So there could be a pressure going in the other way that this leadership spill and inability to resolve a policy dispute means they come across looking like a rabble. A rabble with a leader who just got his way on a big policy dispute, but that is still a type of rabble.
Meanwhile St Bob and his band of treehuggers have been left at the alter like a Jilted Bri
Agree with this. I don’t like him, but IF he survives he is stronger and it might well be a *green shoot* for the libs as well.
Penny has the patience of a saint, I’d be slapping the shite out of Barnaby’s thick head by now!
Finns
thanks
That sounds like a wag taking the piss out of the deniers to me!
It is kind of like Poe’s law which proposes that any parody of creationist dogma is impossible to discern from actual creationist dogma.
What a terrible day for Bolt to have closed down comments on his blog? There are so many people there I would like to send my condolences to.
I see a few PBers think that Turnbull’s personal rating would go up after this because the punters saw him get through it. Sure he might gain some support, but then he may also lose some from those who see him as having betrayed them by facilitating the CPRS.
How on earth is Penny Wong keeping her cool under such puerile questioning by Barnaby Joyce?
SO
He was definitely taking the piss.
I wonder who is enjoying themselves more
Wong over Joyce or Frank over the Greenlets
Because this is the committee stage of debating legislation. It is standard fare at this stage for opponents of the bill to ask inane questions that are then batted back by the Minister.
I just hope Labor pollies don’t think they’re home and hosed for 2010 on the back of today’s kerfuffle. I want them to pick up a few more seats to teach the Libs a real lesson. They need to know they have to earn Govt. again.
I reckon it’s going to be a dirty campaign by Abbott and his RW cohorts.
Mex
tough call that one
With some of them you read you can’t tell. Such as the deniers who think they will be able to convince the Nationals to run in Sydney so they can vote for an anti-ETS candidate.
I ask the Greens or the pollbudger room the question Penny Wong asked what nation is going with the target the Greens what?
Joyce reckons Wong is acting! geez
Yeah, and after all that, he has the temerity to have a go at Rudd for “mishandling” the AS issue when it to all intents and purposes was a “work in progress” and had to be dealt with on its merits, taking into consideration Labor policy and the need to develop a good working relationship with the transit countries!
Rudd will come out of that, smelling of roses!
Turnbull and his issues? Well the less said the better, I think!
what = want! geez i have spent too long in front of the computer today
There are many example of Labor governments winning narrowly, or even forming minority governments in the first term following it up with a landslide win in the 2nd term.
Victoria in 1999, NSW in 1995, S.A. in 2002, QLD in 1998.
The question for Barnabus is whether Wong is yellow or a King?
The countries in the EU are 25%. NZ is 10-20%. The US is Senate is about to vote on 20%.
Well at least troothy is out there in his tinnie defending terra australis from the inscrutable orientals.
barnyard would be proud
There won’t be a vote on it this year they are too busy debating health care.
So – I read the election night comments on Possum’s blog and is was just as exciting as in 2007 so a few more seats will do me in 2010. We can have a landslide in 2013 with Julia G if you like.
No 40%s there then!
I was thinking the other day that for me if Pyne loses his seat that would be almost as good as Howard losing Bennelong.
Gus, Toothy should be on alert for this:
http://www.iro.umontreal.ca/~vaucher/Genealogy/Documents/Asia/Ships/ZhengHeShip.jpg
Has Penny Wong mentioned to Barnyard that NZ has passed their ETS for 10-20% today?
And I’d love to see Southcott lose his too, SO. Is there any chance of that?
Thanks Diogenes! It is clear that the Australian Greens want Australia to make deeper cuts than anyone else and what i am interested in hearing the Green supporters here explain is how they can so aim for a position that is in International terms deemed outragously excessive.
Do the Greens actually understand our the economy works and do they actually care about communities that would have been wiped out and the impact on Australia’s soceity with such an agressive and over the top target.
Looks like it – St Bob is on the outer as usual and is telling untruths like his candidate in Willagee.
That doesn’t matter, he only cares what the U.S. and China does.
This is the way to get to Joyce who is a naturally ignorant person. Remaining calm and leaving him nothing else except facts to play with totally neutralises him, since he is too ignorant to deal with even simple facts.
If you have ever heard his rants in the Senate you would thought he suffered some verbal disability. He is often incoherent, and gets into a rage over what nobody can tell except that he needs to show that he is in a rage. Maybe he sees dead people, maybe he stood chatting around the exhausts of diesels too often. Whatever it is his ignorance for a Senator is exceptional.
Nope and they don’t understand the role of unions either – the Willagee thread is a prime example.
Nobody ABC headline: “Turnbull asked to change his political style”. You mean to this?:
http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/people/berlusconi-between-the-sheets-escorts-pillow-talk-20091125-jrdl.html
Listening to Senator Millnes going on about when did the government make the decision and in her words one that the ALP could political bear.
I wonder if she actually understands what the impact on the ALP’s core heartland would be if 40% was the target.
BH
We are just about to move out of Southcott’s electorate so we won’t be able to be a part of bringing about that joyous outcome.
Unfortunately we’ll be entering Mayo where there is little chance to make a difference.
Listened to Milne in the Senate today. She is obviously an intelligent competent Senator and knows her stuff quite well. But her delivery grates and grates, she is more likely to be a divisive character and as leader will polarise. The rusted on Greens will love her with great passion and everyone else will be slightly put off.
Janet Albrechtsen sounds like a parody of a Bolta Blogger:
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/janetalbrechtsen/index.php/theaustralian/comments/we_cant_bank_on_risky_rudd/
And this person is on the board of the ABC?
What an utter disgrace.
A politician who has chums in the Trades Unions, chums in small business, chums in big business, chums among the world political elite and all that with stratospheric ratings among his 7,000,000 or so “chums” in the Australian electorate, sounds like a pretty useful bloke to have around when things get sticky.
Christine Milne is testing it right out to its limits!
Penny must feel like going across and dropping a chair on her head!
For a mob that are irrelevant in this whole process, they sure are making a lot of noise!
MB,
Who cares what Milne and the Greens Madame de farge collective think?
Thomas Paine! Milnes is a better performer than Joyce, at least i can understand her questions unlike Joyce whom just seems to ramble
Penny to Christine: 25% is as much the country can bear.
MexicanB – I watched Christine Milne for awhile this arvo. She is one very aggressive lady. The Greens think all the job losses will be taken up by the green jobs and nothing will persuade them otherwise. She’s too much of a bully for me.
And I got an email from her and Bob Brown today – deleted it and sent one back to ask to be removed from their list. How do they get email addresses?
Does Bob Brown have another record he can play?
ah ha, Julia is a cert for 2015.
pass the cavier
It’s kind of sad that none of the Liberal deniers have the courage to go into the Senate and ask Wong questions about the policy that we know they oppose.
vp,
This seems appropriate.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KynpC1e9I9E
BK – Lucky you, a beautiful area and now you will be able to help get rid of the little prig, Briggs.
yeah i can just see the workers of the Hunter, La Trobe and Gladstone regions becoming workers in Green jobs.
Look i clearly support investing in Solar Power plants and other renewables but the Greens seem to have little to no regard for those communities that would be wiped out by the 40% target.
TP
Agree about Milne. She knows her stuff but she’d very aggressive and polarising. She reminds me of Billary.
I though Minchin might have been on the toilet.
That doesn’t matter, they know they will never be in a position to set a 40% target, so they don’t need to consider to consequences.
Remember how we were saying about a year ago that somebody else should be taking carriage of the CPRS? I think we were wRONg.
vp,
‘we” ???????
I never said that. I thought Wong was doing a good job in what is an extremely complicated problem, ESPECIALLY considering that the only viable way of getting the bills through the senate was to get the Liberals to support them.
we, the blog. No names, no packdrill.
The attack from the right wing ‘journos’ in the media is born from pure jealousy.
The cannot stand it at all that Rudd is and has been totally competent and in control from day one. He over shadows Howard and puts him in the shade. They so identified with Howard that Howard’s humiliation was theirs.
Rudd looks down on them as soiled Howard artefacts, and they know that is what they are. Now Rudd points it out to them and that has gotta hurt.
48/35 in favour of Turnbull. That is an unbelievable result given that Andrews decided to have a go this morning.
If Andrews wasn’t Howard’s workchoices minister, Andrews would be leader right now! Lucky for Rudd he was workchoices minister because whereas Turnbull is not a politician, Andrews is a professional.
The EU collectively is 25% unconditional, but 30% if there’s a global deal.
BH @ 2066
Yeah – a beautiful area. Mount Torrens it will be. I hope it could become a prig free zone in my time there
IIRC this was also a line run exhaustively in the News ltd press. Comparisons were made this time last year with Gillard who got her IR bill through. I bet those pundits are feeling like geese now, given what we now know about the extent of divisions in the opposition. And I’ll admit to being one of those who thought Wong wasn’t handling the portfolio well, and that happily I”ve been proved wrong.
He started testing the water late last week. But apparently he didn’t even bother calling people.
But still isn’t the magic 40% as espoused by St Bob and Mother Christine though !
Sounds like Janet Albrechtsen is getting warmed up for Kev’s next OS trip. it’s to CHOGM in Trinidad and Tobago starting this Friday
SO @ 2080. I don’t think you’d start calling people when none of them didn’t even know what was going to happen in the next 5 minutes.
Janet Albrechtsen is a prostitute. Just like Glenn Beck called Mary Landrieu a prostitute.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/24/dems-to-vitter-denounce-g_n_369147.html
It wasn’t a vote for Andrews. It was a vote for getting rid of Turnbull and opposing the CPRS. If the spill had actually succeeded, the real ballot would have been between Hockey and Abbott.
If Abbott had won that I still think at least 7 Liberal Senators loyal to Turnbull would’ve voted for the CPRS, thus leaving Abbott with Turnbull’s policy.
No, but sadly the climate doesn’t give a toss about what consensus position the EU can hammer out when it decides how much CO2 in the atmosphere is safe.
Well that is purely speculation Psephos because Andrews was the only one to nominate for the leadership. Minchin appeared to back Andrews on the news clip I saw.
Andrews did not nominate for the leadership, because there was no ballot to nominate for. There was a motion to have a ballot, which was defeated.
psephos,
Turnbull was never under threat at any moment, this time. The dissenters have been played on a break.
At the end of the day, despite the enormous kerfuffle, Turnbull achieved all his objectives.
Finns
Right again!!!
Well he put his hand up for the leadership then. That’s why he held a press conference I’m led to believe.
So if the spill motion was successful, do you think that automatically means that Turnbull wouldn’t nominate, because a successful spill would mean Turnbull couldn’t win a ballot?
Surely pissing off 50% of the joint partyroom wasn’t one of his aims?
Diog, The Wars of the Roses finished in 1485.
If the spill motion had been passed, that would have been a vote of no confidence in Turnbull. He would probably have resigned at that point. If he didn’t resigm, he would been defeated in the subsequent ballot. No-one believes that Andrews was a serious candidate for the leadership. If Turnbull had resigned, then the ballot would have been between Hockey and Abbott. If Turnbull nominated for the ballot, Hockey would probably not have nominated against him, so it would probably have been a Turnbull v Abbott ballot.
sHows On,
They were already pissed off. Nothing Malcolm did this week could make them any more pissed off apart from revealing their utter irrelevance. The whole show from the trogs is the losers complaining “they should a been a contender”.
I still don’t think most of the public have much of an idea what has actually been going on these past two days apart from Turnbull having trouble with his own.
Go to the front of the class
If Andrews wasn’t a serious contender (which I believe he was) and Abbott and Hockey refusing to contest beforehand, the 48/35 makes Turnbull’s standing even worse.
Nepal is doing its bit to reduce methane emissions!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/24/2752513.htm
Ah, but Hockey would’ve been paranoid that Abbott would defeat Turnbull in a ballot!
It would’ve be great if that happened, because it would’ve seen what would’ve happened without a day for the factions to lobby.
And what would’ve the result been if Andrews had another day to lobby?
As do I. Not serious enough to get over the line, but serious enough to get the CC sceptics behind him.
Dario,
Imagine if he’d won today. How much ringing of hands about what have we done?
Chris Uhlman: [To lose one Parliamentary Secretary looks unfortunate. To lose three looks like carelessness.]
Although I’ll never be a big fan of this bloke, a journo who paraphrases Wilde can’t be all bad.
hemingway,
The rule for success in politics is “Never complain, never explain, never resign”.
We would have needed a bucketload more popcorn!
Ron Boswell! “This is a serious Parliament”! lol
All he has shown tonight is that he is an ignorant, bullying dill who is long past his use-by date!
They are really dishing it up to Penny tonight! They should be ashamed of themselves!
GG,
You’re not wrong, mate.
Exactly why? The Executive should be answerable to the Parliament. This is the way democracy is meant to work.
Dario,
Ain’t no mountain high enough!
They should have the decency to ask intelligent questions, not behave like utter morons that do nothing more than shame the Senate with their inanity
300 spartans vs our Penn ans she is giving them hell.
If Andrews had started to lobby earlier the result would have been closer I’d imagine. Andrews however does carry the baggage of workchoices.
The next polls should see a slight increase in 2PP, an increase in PPM and a lower satisfaction for Turnbull
Many of his colleagues would wear that as a badge of honour
Yes Dario, but they’d never let on to the electorate.
finns
Greens and Nats tag-teaming against our Penny and getting an arsewhopping
Methinks the Greens see everything about China via the lens of Tibet and our Penn has put them in their right place.
Yeah, but it is curious that the Liberals who clearly oppose the CPRS bills don’t have the guts to go in and question Wong about the bills that they are going to vote against.
ltep,
If that’s a civilised and acceptable way to decide matters of vital importance for the people of this country, then it should be shut down!
If they spoke to me in that way, they would be picking their teeth up off the floor soon after!
You can say anything anonymously here but I bet “you” wouldn’t find it acceptably to be spoken to that way!
No, but how is that relevant? They don’t need to tell the voters the real reasons why they might be supporting Andrews
Well Wong is just getting free experience at being badgered to death. It will make her a better more controlled performer, if that is possible. Of Wong and Gillard which is the most cool under pressure?
I think it must be scary for the Libs to see how well these people handle themselves.
Ahh, that’s what I meant Dario. The Libs would never let on to the electorate that they are strong advocates of workchoices.
This is absolutely standard practice for Senate debate during the committee stage.
Think of what it would be like if the Liberals opposed the policy!
If you want to read a bravura Senate performance, have a read of Gareth Evans dealing with the committee stage of the Native Title bills in 1993.
Gillard is in womans day
she wins
Wong’s self-control is miraculous to watch. I actually would like to see her lose her temper occasionally, but she is too disciplined to give these buffoons (Nats) and fanatics (Greens) that satisfaction.
“If you want to read a bravura Senate performance, have a read of Gareth Evans dealing with the committee stage of the Native Title bills in 1993″.
I actually prefer the French version.
I want to join the Penny Wong Fan Club!
She’s one cool customer!
I thought it would be the Latin translation of the French version!
Funniest thing on radio this afternoon: all the Liberals ringing in, claiming they’ll never vote Liberal again, Turnball has betrayed them, climate change is a fantasy dreamt up by the left & the unions, Kevin Rudd is the Anti-Christ etc.
That’s the tenure of the discourse on 2GB, led by their right wing shock jocks.
It’s all greek to me
Which is all just crap. What are they going to do, vote Labor? If not, then it is all rubbish.
They can vote Green like the good Liberals of Fremantle did and elect a whackaloon like Adele Carles
Shows On,
Vido Vici Veboredshitless?
They’re going to vote for the Nationals, which is a little difficult because the Nats don’t run candidates in Sydney metro seats!
Supposedly the Nationals will win the Bradfield byelection, so says the 2GB shockjocks, because only “Saint Barnaby” can be trusted to save us from the evil Rudd.
sorry, that should be
Veni, Vidi, Viboredshitless.
The entertainment starts tomorrow at 9 in HoR and 9:30 in the Senate. NewsRadio is doing HoR. QT Senate on ABC TV.
A guy on Bolta’s blog was going to lobby the Nationals to run in the seat of Sydney.
I’m sure Tanya Plibersek is freaking right now.
What? Reading the bits.
Has everyone forgotten Andrews vs Haneef?
The Libs would put him up as ‘the man’ in order to permit his crucifixion.
Which would be well deserved.
I cannot believe the hubris of this disgusting person.
Probably urged on by such as Ruddock.
Poor Fool.
‘Ringing’ of hands, indeed. You may be right, in the case of the Libs.
For whom the bell.
And of course we’ve been through this before the last time the Libs and Nats were in opposition, with the Joh-for-Canberra circus and Nat candidates running in city seats. They achieved nothing and only succeeded in handing Qld over to Labor. Meanwhile, their rural base vote keeps trickling away.
crikey,
He also had passage of Work Choices from introduction.
A man like this has more tahn one conviction.
Psephos,
Which is exactly what Joyce is about. He’s postioning himself so that come the split he can credibly chase dissafected rural voters ala Hansonites.
Do you think the Nats would be better off splitting from the coalition? It seems they will run a completely different climate change policy to the Liberals at the election.
They should look at how Uncle Bwendon saved the West from teh evil socalists.
It didn’t do them any good last time.
HSO
Latest from NASA re antartic ice loss
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/grace20091124.html
So potentially the next conservative government may be all Liberals. Oh, except the LNPers in QLD.
The CPRS according to the Ferals:
“Do you think the Nats would be better off splitting from the coalition?”
Andrew Elder has a different view.
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com/2009/11/adding-value-peter-van-onselen-has-been.html
From the Australian article posted by ShowsOn way back at 1744 – “Liberal frontbencher Tony Abbott said: “The result the party gives us is always the right result.”
My English comprehension skills are obviously fast disappearing as I age but can anyone hazard a guess at what this joker means?
Also re the comments about sacking Minchin, the same article suggests he can’t because:
“Despite the open defiance of Senate leader Nick Minchin, Mr Turnbull cannot remove him from his position in any reshuffle because it is determined by senators.”
Is this a new thing that the Liberal leader can’t choose his team, comprising senators or otherwise? I thought the Libs always used to crow about how they could pick and choose whilst the Labor party were always tied by and at the mercy of factions etc.?
Ugh! and Ugh!
My reading of poll analysis shows that Labor loses nothing in hard core primary vote, whatever Kevin (Rudd) does (or not) do.
There is no chance exactly that the Labor hard core vote is about to be swayed by the ridiculous idea of the elevation of Andrews. Or Abbott, if it comes to that. Mr Oxford Blue, comes out swinging on any issue or loyalty.
Joe Hockey, so say the pundits, is the man.
Yeah well.
It will be far too late for him when his time arrives, if. And because he seems to be a decent bloke, how is he to carry whatever conviction he may have, against his Kokoda track/trail partner and friend?
Julia will be far ahead by then.
I think the Nats members would be better off splitting with their Members of Parliament. It is a rural party. In opposing the ETS (with farming exempted) they are selling out their own members. (At least Macfarlane and the NFF see the problem). Why? Because they want Palmer, the QLD president and coal billionaire, to fund their next election campaign. I see no other reason.
The CPRS Scare Campaign is on in earnest thanks to their ABC and ACA.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/25/2753719.htm
Regarding Penny Wong in the Senate, I agree she handled herselfwell, but the questions were nonsensical. She was too polite. Nash tried to link debt ($110B!!) and China, saying would we have to borrow Chinese money to buy Chinese carbon credits?
This was a crazy quesion, 100% dog whistle and 0% economically literate:
- overall we have a small debt; 10% of GDP. With the RBA saying we are moving back to trend growth, it will be paid off by the time this scheme is in full swing
- most of our debt is held by UK and USA, not China
- we have a large trade surplus with China; they are our best customer
- this will not alter unless our terms of trade alter massively
- the ETS is self funding, due to the revenuefrom the permit auctions
Shows On
The QLD LNP isotope is about to demonstrate just how short a half life it has!! The rogue neutrino formerly known as Mal Brough is about to snash into its nucleus and split it back to Lib and Nat atoms!!
Castle Troothy, in a secret location North of Townsville…
http://www.escapeandexplore.co.uk/galleries/images/p7231218.jpg
It looks like troothy has one of Capn Cook’s cannons to keep out the swarm of illegal non aliens violating our pristine continent
Troothy, ‘en garde’, listening out for any of that jappo, chinky chonk lingo around Townsville.
http://www.firstworldwar.com/photos/graphics/gw_frlistpost_01.jpg
Joe Hockey’s cat, extremely grateful that Sloppy didn’t piss Malcolm off today…
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_nHkHmJl7K88/SVjI2eiq3EI/AAAAAAAADYg/1CA3BUU6NvY/s320/CatSpag.jpg
AHA
the rats out of the bag
http://www.theage.com.au/national/calling-john-party-divided-20091125-jrtd.html
Bring on the mother of all scare campaigns I say.
You see, the trouble with a scare campaign is that the scare involved must never, ever, under any circumstances actually eventuate – otherwise you end up building such a negative perception that the reality looks wonderful by comparison.
Howard used fear for years to hold back the tide of public opinion – and it worked very nicely – but once the dam broke the reality of living under a Labor government couldn’t help but be a pleasant surprise to the electorate. To the tune of 5-6% TPP it would seem.
Give me the headlines and opinion pieces in the Oz saying 100,000 people will lose their jobs, exports will fall by 25%, electricity prices will go up 300% and our dollar will be savaged. Now that the CPRS is going to be law, all it will do is make the real but eminently manageable economic adjustments needed look like a piece of … well, strolls, parks, etc
This is from a message to Turnbull back in June. Consider for a moment who might be the author.
The author is Godwin Grech.
Labor must surely give Turnbull a massive kick in the arse to see off QT for the year.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/humbled-turnbull-i-will-change-20091125-jrwc.html?autostart=1
I suppose people will claim this as yet more evidence of the ABC being a Liberal mouthpiece:
More grief for Turnbull as OzCar resurfaces:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/26/2753811.htm
THEIR ABC alright!
Erotosthenes
I think you are quite right about the reaction to unfulfilled fear campaigns. In part that has also happened accidentally to the benefit of Labor with the GFC – a valid fear that hasn’t been realised.
The Libs are setting themselves up again for the same problem with the debt claims. Again, it won’t be that bad.
I don’t think Labor should be too hard on Turnbull. It would look mean spirited. Turnbull has tried to do a deal with Labor, and is fatally weakened anyway. Instead I would go after his disloyal bunch of anti-science climate skeptic colleagues. Nobody sane has sympathy for them, and they represent a group that will never vote Labor anyway.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/26/2753811.htm
Conflict of interest much, this right-wing polemicist on the board of the ABC?
Thanks Rodent.
ltep
Thanks that Grech stuff is dynamite! People can have fun quoting that into hansard all day
Grech really had a bizarre over confidence in his own understanding of economic policy. He was working in Treasury but wasn’t even an economist – just an administrator who had worked his way up. He calls Treasury “left-wing loony” at the time they were doing stim-pac 2, which in fact has worked beautifully. I wonder if he was the source of the Libs opposition to it? If so, they shot themselves in the foot with their own spy
Yesterday, i speculated that i saw the Black Arm Band of John Howard in the treachery committed by Robb to destroy Turnbull.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/calling-john-party-divided-20091125-jrtd.html
Well, well, well, i spoke too soon. i am now convinced that the leopard doesnt change its spots:
The plot gets thicken.
I’m feeling quite depressed today.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26402006-5006301,00.html
All one can do is hope the “internal polling” is rubbish and leaked for political motivation.
Is this some sort of divine comedy? Depression or no depression:
http://www.theage.com.au/national/battered-turnbull-put-on-notice-20091125-jrtb.html
A proxy for the resurrection of Jesus Howard?
Triton:
Psephos:
Where did I argue that reading the science is too much bother? I said nothing about the science, only the IPCC report, because that was what we were discussing at the time, imbecile. My only point was that the real science would not be found in the report that I was being urged to read. Nothing more.
You are just being silly. This is a forum where people respond to each other’s posts is it not? I and others have been having a long debate over the science of global warming. Along the way a number of people urged me to read the IPCC report, and I responded that most likely I would not get an idea of the reliability of science from doing that. Please explain why this was a “moronic” response. You seem to be arguing that, although this is a forum where people respond to each other’s statements, opinions and suggestions, I should not have posted a perfectly natural response at that point. What an idiot.
Turnbull must go. He aint got no credibility left and not fit to be the alternative PM, let alone PM. Malcolm, go back to investment banking where your talents are more suitable:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/godwin-grech-offered-to-stay-in-treasury-as-a-mole-for-opposition/story-e6frgczf-1225803954758
Fran to Lindsay Tanner: “So, Minister, aren’t you gambling on the value of the Australian dollar?”
Lindsay got quite angry and put her back in her box.
… says Peter van Onselen. So I guess this means Peter reckons the Libs would romp it home with Tony Abbott, or Kevin Andrews, perhaps Robb or Hockey as Leader?
When the Right is in the bunker their wackiness and delusion has a special quality all of its own. The Party emails keep coming out of some underground printing press in the rubble of Liberal policy. The battalions and the armies are moved about, still fighting the CPRS, still probing Asylum Seekers. The media write up every move and nuance seriously as if each and every stage of it meant something else besides götterdämmerung had arrived.
And now we have the final delusion… “It’s only half and inch on the map!” says van Onselen. “Just get rid of Turnbull and we’ll shit it in!” he cries. “Malcolm’s holding back the vote!”
The Party itself is popular, organized and eagerly anticipated as the next government of Australia by the voters. It’s just a matter of finding the right Messiah with that special combination of Right Wing looneyism, Climate Change denialism, people skills and personal charisma to overcome the most consistently popular Prime Minister in Australian political history.
Joe asked the people to forgive them. As little Catholics, at school we were told “there is no absolution without contrition”. You have to do the penance after confession. But Joe seems to think, as does van Onselen, that we the Voters will just “forgive” the Liberals… for their vandalism of the parliament, their opposition of everything (even things they not only supported once but actually voted for in the House), their corruption of the ABC, their lies and their complete ratbaggery to even their own fellow members, but most of all for the utter boredom that their travails have put us through… without contrition, not even one “Hail Mary”. They’re already at it again in the Senate, destructively filibustering the CPRS legislation as it passes through committee. They’ll be infighting soon, tweeting and texting. The journalists will write it all up as if there’s purpose to its mad course. All they need is a new leader and the PArty won’t be held back from its true potential any longer.
Christ! What a giants of imaginations some of them have!
You can find the full Senate committee report into Grech here:
http://www.aph.gov.au/Senate/reports.htm
Look under November 25,Priveleges Committee report 142.
Its a slow download but a lot of fun reading all the emails.
Section 4.10 is interesting. Senator Abetz was cleared by the committee despite allegedly misleading the committee and not providing any evidence in response to its inquiries.
Likewise the role of Steve Lewis of The Australian is worth reading in the comments of Senator Collins. I find it hard to believe he complied with AJA codes of conduct.
bob1234@2172 … I wouldnt worry too much about internal party polling …. you will notice it says “marginal seats”. Are they government held marginals or opposition held marginals or a combination of both? Theoretically it could include seats like Unley or Morphett which would definitely give a different look to the numbers …
sykesie
I agree about the Lib polling, esp as it was before Chantelois.
However, Rann and Hill have a really big problem next week with the coroner’s case of the cardiac surgery patient at Flinder’s. That one could explode depending on how the media report it.
I heard rumours Diogones that the Liberal policy for the new medical research institute is to just give the money to improve medical research at the University of Adelaide/IMVS … not really a way to endear yourself to voters who work at Flinders or UniSA ….
*chortle* And where was Flinder at the time?
The grammar nazis have made an early appearance this morning
From Additional Comments by Senator Collins:
I thought Alan Jones was going to have a heart attack this morning on radio, the poor dear is getting very angry about “left wing global conspiracy” and the betrayal of true Liberals by the traitor Turnball etc.
These were the Liberal floor-crossers yesterday:
Judith Adams (WA)
Guy Barnett (Tas)
David Bushby (Tas)
Matthias Cormann (WA)
Mitch Fifield (Vic)
Chris Back (WA)
Cory Bernardi (SA)
Michaelia Cash (WA)
Alan Eggleston (WA)
Alan Ferguson (SA)
Ian Macdonald (Qld)
Brett Mason (Qld)
Psephos
Very droll.
sykesie
They certainly want to cancel the new research centre at the new RAH site (as well as cancelling the RAH) but I hadn’t heard where they planned to spend it.
The voters in the *Flinders* area are going to have bigger things to worry about next week with allegations of an unaccredited and unsupervised surgeon operating and a patient dying. As you know, the coroner ordered raids on Flinders and a surgeons home. I don’t think he’s amused.
sykesie
To be pedantic (which, these days, I am only if I have a marking or editing job), it should be “the punctuation pedants” – but “grammar nazis” will do.
OTOH. you could have a version of Word automatically buggering up your typing by morphing “Flinders” into “Flinder’s”. Did it to me for yonks – and “?corrected” my spelling & usage into American (Grrrr) – until I disabled spell check and discovered Nisus.
BTW: “flinders” is a plural noun; “flinder” is not recognised as correct usage.
Who or what is Nisus?
Psephos
Can we say now which Liberal senators will be voting for and against the ETS? Also can we confirm Mr Xs voting position on the ETS?
Judith Adams is Deputy Opposition Whip in the Senate
David Bushby is Deputy Opposition Whip in the Senate
Alan Ferguson is Deputy President and Chairman of Committees
Cormann, Fifield and Mason we know about
David Johnston was the only WA Lib not to cross. I think Julie Bishop has some explaining to do.
Malcolm won’t be happy.
To be even more pedantic:
* The apostrophe is not a punctuation mark, it’s a grammatical indicator. It serves to distinguish between similarly spelled but grammatically different words. (eg, the dog’s ears, the dogs’ ears).
* Flinders is not a plural noun, it’s a singular proper noun.
These Liberal senators are being egged on by talkback radio. The shockjocks are encouraging their right wing audience to inundate the offices of Liberal senators with phonecalls and emails, begging them to oppose an ETS.
Socrates: I think the floor-crossers will be those listed above. David Johnston is shadow defence minister and apparently doesn’t intend resigning.
Shaun Carney inadvertently hints at what is eating the Liberal Party. They STILL don’t want to accept the result – not on the CPRS – but the November 24 2007 result.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/heavy-burden-of-leadership-20091125-jrp8.html
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26403132-5005962,00.html
It may or it may not. Infighting certainly will.
Bob, I was listening to two PR experts earlier on ABC radio in Sydney.
They think the Liberals will be in opposition for another 14 years!
evan14,
How many radio stations are you listening to?
Here in Canberra we have a shortage of radio shills.
It’s striking that there are no NSW Senators and only one Victorian on the denialist list. Fifield is a bit of a surprise.
Only four backbench Senators from the BAPH states are not on the list: Boyce and Trood (Qld), Birmingham and Fisher (SA)
Psephos: the likes of Alan Jones and his colleagues on “Liberal Radio” in Sydney are incensed that the majority of the NSW Liberal senators are voting for the ETS.
And how does the OO report the matter?
“There is no evidence to suggest that Mr Grech was aware of Mr O’Sullivan’s links to Mr Turnbull and the Liberal Party before his proposal…”
Since when did the OO need hard evidence before pretending to join the dots? They fabricated a replica of the ‘fake email’ and published it in the hope it would be taken as the original. Their standards of evidence very much depend on who is the target.
Scumbags.
And for those who complain about ABC right wing bias take note that an ABC board member is mentioned in the Turnbull-Grech story and that could easily and probably forgivably have been left out as being unrelated to the story itself.
The new front bench should be good, i’ve been wondering why this hasnt occured.
Looks like Robb will be knifed lol
Lot of positions up for grabs.
Glen: maybe Turnball will promote Bilson and Greg Hunt?
Probably not Tony Smith(because he’s against the ETS).
There are four NSW Lib Senators: Coonan is in the shadow cabinet, Fierravanti-Wells and Payne are shadow parl secs. Only Heffernan is a backbencher. I’m surprised he’s not a floor-crosser so far, but of course he may still vote against the CPRS.
To be honest, I think Hockey should be the next Liberal leader, but after the next election. Joe’s problem though is that the hard right of the party won’t accept him.
I highly doubt it.
On the other hand Heffernan hates the Nats even more than he hates Labor, greenies and poofters, so it’s a hard call for him to vote with the Nats against his own party.
Steve K,
Lady Janet is not mentioned in the article from which (take that, pedants!) you are quoting.
So Turnball can’t demote Minchin and Abetz?
The heff was here (nsw Central coast) two weeks ago.Addressed local Libs and went on local ABC.
From accounts he was NOT a denier and on the ABC actually supported the NFF position.
They accepted Turnbull didn’t they?
Heff may be a monster boofhead, but he’s not stupid and he knows more about water systems than anyone else in parliament. I’d be very surprised if he crossed the floor.
I should have made it clearer. She’s IS mentioned in the ABC news item
[Mr Grech also exchanged emails with John O’Sullivan, the chairman of investment banking at Credit Suisse – the bank chosen to work on OzCar – who is also the husband of conservative columnist and ABC board member Janet Albrechtsen.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/26/2753811.htm
This is Heffernan’s speech on the CPRS:
http://parlinfo/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;adv=yes;db=;group=;holdingType=;id=;orderBy=customrank;page=0;query=AuthorSpeakerReporter%3Aheffernan%20Dataset%3Ahansards;querytype=;rec=5;resCount=Default
Good luck making any sense of it. Best line: “If I were in charge in a philosophical sense I would shoot two out of three lawyers.”
Steve K,
Thnaks.
I think you’ll find that when they have dispensed with Turnbull, they will decide they’ve GIVEN the liberal experiment a go, found they hated it, then go back to their favoured ILliberal path.
Cuppa@2218:
Oh, that it should be so!
http://www.smh.com.au/national/humbled-turnbull-i-will-change-20091126-jsh3.html
More being caught up in toilets and stairwells?
2201 Psephos
Re: Fifield being the only Vic, McGauran won’t vote for the ETS, will he?
Psephos @2192
‘Flinders’ is a singular proper noun, but ‘flinders’ is a plural common noun.
It could be, if “flinder” was a word, but so far as I know it isn’t.
All we know is that he hasn’t crossed the floor so far.
rudds speech at the moment in the reps is a cracker.
he is one funny bloke,he should show this side more
“to those that listen or watch proceedings, my commiserations”
LOL
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/liberal-mp-compares-turnbull-to-mugabe-20091125-jp7a.html
Tuckey, the gift that keeps on giving.
Psephos
Not during my decades as a student and teacher at the Institute of Pedantry, during the “public exam” era when students had to correct both and justify their changes (not only for secondary but also university Eng. exams); not during decades of line editing on a part-time professional basis – which I’ve only recently given up due to prolonged stroke-induced nystagmus’s effects on my eyesight (the main reason for my prolonged absence from this blog, and still a problem).
As blogging is a global activity, inviting international participants, one does have to be aware that there are several different versions of correct formal and informal English – as those of us who had to go to great lengths to disable automatic American “spell check” features which refused to change to any other version of English know! (Gawd! One I had was sure “which” must be preceded by “;” as in “every; which way”) I might still hate split infinitives and lack of possessive case before gerunds; but neither Bush had become US President when, as a teacher & editor, I received official edicts demanding both be accepted – and yes, the establishment’s pedants chucked hissy-fits & spat dummies.
BTW 1, I checked the current etymological status of “flinder/ flinders” before I typed; one of those things line editors do, especially when communicating globally.
BTW 2, having blogged internationally since the days of ARnet & AARnet – when coding a paragraph took forever (so one typed for readability rather that accuracy) and cost a mint to transmit (ensuring we dropped punctuation and abbreviated wherever possible) – I learned to accept blogs’ status as abbreviated informal communication.
Similarly, as a teacher of students (to doctoral level) with dyslexia, severe physical impairments etc, I learned to judge communication by its quality – an editor can prepare it for publication, as long as it meets publication’s quality criteria. After all, punctuation, spelling and grammar – English standardisation of which is not only of quite recent creation, but subject to constant change; as one expects of a living language – were created only to clarify communication.
BTW 3, Nisus Writer is a dream programme for the writer/ editor who has to submit work in several versions of correct formal and/ or informal “English” – including old fashioned UK publications which still (like Inspector Morse) prefer what most now consider an Americanisation; ization to isation.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/26/2754041.htm
Huh? Lol
So sloppy it must be their ABC!
I was listening to Peter Ford (showbiz commentator on “Talking Liberal” 3AW) and he was saying how odd it was that Channel 7 has only used 12 minutes of the 11 hours of footage they took with Michelle and only on their program “Sunday Night”. He also said that it was very odd that they released Michelle from her contract with them.
So in the very heat of battle (Monday and Tuesday) “Barcelona Tonight” did not persue the matter and haven’t since and 7 have let their competitors gain access to their “star witness”. I wonder why.
OzPol
Delightful literary reference to Endeavour Morse. Are you thinking of the “Ghost in the Machine” episode here?
Psephos @2223
‘flinders’ is a plurale tantum, like ‘alms’, ‘amends’, ‘annals’, ‘cattle’, ‘clothes’, ‘doldrums’, ‘news’, ‘odds’, ‘pants’, ‘scissors’, ‘thanks’, ‘tongs’, and ‘trousers’.
Psephos@2223:
Used now mostly in the plural, but a singular word nevertheless:
1. A splinter; a thin slice; a small piece or fragment: usually in the plural. His bow and his broad arrow In flinders flew about. Robin Hood and the Beggar (Child’s Ballads, V. 191). They gar’d it a’ in flinders flee. Jock o’ the Side (Child’s Ballads, VI. 85). The tough ash spear, so stout and true, Into a thousand flinders flew. Scott, L. of L. M., iii. 6.
2. To flirt; run about in a fluttering manner. Jamieson.
Source:
http://www.wordnik.com/words/flinder
also an obsolete term for a butterfly.
Cormann is going nuts over the cataract rebate again.
What is that Christmas tree and presents doing in the House daily program?
http://www.aph.gov.au/house/info/daily/daily.pdf
JD@2231
Pant is an accepted term for long trousers for a lady.
You might be familiar with the term ‘pant suit’ for example.
Roxon is running a dictatorship, apparently. She might be quite pleased to be described like that, like Prime Minister Hacker was.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/newspoll-will-be-bad-for-liberals-pyne-20091126-js9c.html
Wonder if Milne and Shanas et all will try to pass off a “huge drop” (if there’s one) as a rogue poll.
Cuppa
This means they already have some polling – probably internal – and it isn’t good for them.
Only if any poll but the Newspoll shows a huge drop.
Pyne is “managing expectations”. They all do it.
Only Beattie was able to view a huge lead as someting that would “cost us 10 seats”. LOL.
Since we’re into a discussion of language, The Deniers are now claiming that CC data is fraudulent because of lines taken out of context from those hacked emails of CC scientists, and one of the supposedly most egregious examples plucked out is a CC scientist’s use of the word “trick” in an email about data presentation. Seemed to me the contextual meaning was the same as this use of “tricks” in a Reuters article today about Australia’s decision to purchase F-35 fighters from US corporation Lockheed Martin.
Steve K,
Yeah, but it’s more of a “disclaimer” than anything!
It was certainly “not” highlighted as a “gotcha” style comment!
In case anyone’s interested in rest of Reuters F-35 purchase article (it is a $3.2 Billion expenditure):
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCASYD33933020091125?rpc=44
Thanks, Hemmingway.
Sadly, can’t remember which Morse. Loved ‘em all! Love CriFi and SciFi, CriFi from childhood (starting with Enid Blyton’s kid ‘tects’ (Onya, George!). Right this sec, can’t even remember which Lady CriFi writer did a magical Eng translation of The Divine Comedy (?Sayers). CriFi and SciFi used to be Ivory Tower / Ivy League etc Dons’ Long Vac relaxation in the halcyon days before universities went mad on “productivity” requirements & “third semesters” (so much for correct Eng in modern unis!). I used to set Daughter of Time as the first on my set list for intro to research (generic ) – and that was before Truth Overboard & Weapons of Mass Deception! All I had was the current Australian flag as “The flag our Diggers fought & died under”. Not my Aussie-born Boer War or WW I Grandfathers, nor WW I/II uncles & one Naval brother-in-law, nor Korean War “Digger” cousins!) TeeHee! Didn’t the RWers hate that!
In fact, having spent five decades+ with my head stuck in text books, biogs, heavy tomes, archives & Serious Lit, churning out endless zillion Serious Words, my reading /writing for pleasure choices bring on Eng/Oz/Whatever Lit obsessives’ hissy fits!
GB,
When it came to dealing with public perception of his party’s debacles, defeats and disasters, Beattie was the gold standard. Who else comes close?
Did she need to be mentioned at all?
I bet right wingers will be saying this represents left wing bias.
All up the ABC is reasonably balanced. The biggest problem for them is that they rely so much on the MSM for news. That’s more a case of funding than bias IMO.
Dutch to English:
‘vlinder’ = ‘butterfly’
‘vlinders’ = ‘butterflies’
Remember, as Dario says, Janet and co were just put on the ABC Board to empty the waste-paper baskets.
Eratosthanes:
Lol, I hope Pyne is underestimating the extent of the drop.
OzPol,
I’ll put “Daughter of Time” into my book queue, but it’s an awfully long queue.
Cheers!
Unbelieveable: the Senate report finds that all these people who knew each other, emailed each other, called the government “hacks”, discussed altering contracts after the fact to make millions for some of them, contributed political donations, kept up secret communications etc. etc did so in complete isolation from each other, completely unaware that any funny business was afoot.
Now we hear that because Grech is “ill” (where’s the bloody doctor’s certificate? His hospitalization was voluntary) they don’t think it’s “nice” or “appropriate” to question him so, rather than make an open finding, they completely exonerate him.
Robb disappears for supposedly 3 months with “depression” just before negotiations are due to start on the CPRS, then reappears hale and hearty (and feisty) to betray his leader in the party room.
All of this is given a pass by the media. No “this defies logic” (as was the verdict aboput Rudd’s claim of no special deal on the OV) is opined. No “this is all spin”. Nothing. They explain it away as if there’s a perfectly rational explanation for all of it (even though today’s perfectly rational explanation is completely the opposite of yesterday’s).
The Liberals are disintegrating, have disintegrated as an effective political party. Senior members crossing the floor. Members of shadow ministerial rank are resigning. Back benchers wander the corridors looking for microphones and TV cameras so they can continue to destabilize their leadership. Spills are mooted. Psychopaths like Andrews are given the time of day by the media (instead of being dismissed with loud laughter). The Party is in total meltdown. Yet none of this is particularly seriously canvassed. Joe asks us to forgive him and his colleagues without offering one whit of evidence that they will change their ways and thus earn forgiveness.
It makes me sick.
It’s very bizarre that Pyne would call his own party’s behaviour “absolutely diabolical”. That elevates his criticism to a level I’d expect him to reserve for Labor and the Greens.
Bushfire on Grech
One can only assume/hope that the AFP and Commonwealth DPP actually draw some conclusions…
BB
Now if it was Labor……..
The double standard and outright bias is starkly evident by the dearth of “journalists” analysing the Fibs meltdown and inherent lack of ethics or indeed any ethos.
BB,
You’re spot on.
I’ve taken heart from Peter Hartcher’s front page column in the “Herald” yesterday, which did give the Libs both barrels, and this is how he concludes his column today:
Gus@2253:
Nonsense. Have a look at the front page of yesterday’s SMH. I should frame it.
Even the OO has been sticking it into the libs. There have been analyses galore.
As far as I’m concerned, most of what Grech and other parties were involved in clearly fits the definition of “corruption” and “conspiracy/collusion”!
If the MSM were legit in their claims to represent the “public interest”, then they should be shouting this out from the rooftops!
They sure would if the circumstances were reversed and it was Labor, their supporters/donors and inside operatives involved in a conspiracy to defraud taxpayers and attempt to bring down the democratically elected government!
BB, Of all the aspects relating to Grech-Turnbull this might be the most outrageous.
This must be given a big airing this QT. I think the Libs realise it will and THAT is why they are say the polls will be a disaster. It all depends on how the QT attack is reported.
The problem of alleged ABC bias is more a case of what they don’t report (again insufficient funding to do the leg work themselves) than them reporting what other media outlets are saying.
I do believe that Pyne is about to wet himself with excitement.
It’s pretty hard to ignore something that is happening in full public view!
But one sure fact is that they are surely playing it down as much as they possibly can and trying to shine the best light possible on their beloved Libs!
Tosh!
They should be calling out the senate report for what is was.
A WHITEWASH
Link to the Peter Hartcher article today quoted in 2254—a must read:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/opposition-leader-only-safe-until-the-coalition-grows-up-20091125-jruw.html
Ah, finally managed to find yesterday’s Peter Hartcher column, which concludes:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/turnbulls-sad-reality-35-libs-voted-for-a-figure-of-fun-20091125-jqxc.html Column
You forgot to mention; texting favoured journalists and tweeting proceedings as they transpired!
There was so much information flowing out of the party meetings and at such a rapid rate, that it was impossible for any one person to keep up with!
Chrissy Pyne sounds like he is giving a retirement speech.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26401097-5006336,00.html
Even worse than the 80s? That’s a big call…
Crikey, just logged on to Pyne’s speech and thought he was giving a “validictory” speech!
Was totally disappointed that he was just wishing everyone X-mas greetings!
As did Truss earlier. I walked in as he was speaking and it tok a few minutes to realise it wasn’t his farewell speech.
Julia’s year end speeches are always worthwhile. Already praising the young blood coming through.
Does anyone know who the Lib is that went out into the corridor to tell the assembled media throng (referring to Wilson Tuckey), “somebody ought to give him the needle”? When the throng collectively went WTF, this bloke came out again and said, “To have him put down.” I saw it on a couple of television news pieces yesterday.
A smart man; a rarity on that side.
Laming or Schulz I think.
Thanks, Bob, I’ll check them out.
Steve,
Very droll.
Hey Hemingway – you’ve got to agree that he is a smart man.
Bob,
Looking at their official mug shots, I reckon it’s Alby Schultz.
I’m more inclined to recall it was Laming…
I don’t know how many times I have seen this misrepresentation since yesterday after noon.
At least, “some” commentators “have” got it right and reported it as a “Spill Motion”!
There is quite some difference but I “can” see how so many incompetent “so-called” Journalists get it wRONg!
Hockey to God: “Dear Father, we have sinned and know not what we were doing, please forgive us”.
God to Hockey: “Dear Joe, naughty, naughty, 10,000 Aloysius shuffles
in the corner”. 
Thanks, Cuppa. So who’s “me tooing” Rudd now?
And, Hemmingway (#2242), doesn’t that just show that CC deniers have no understanding of the way researchers argue their way through an issue: since the Socratic dialectic has been around for c2.5 millennia now, one would have thought it has seeped through the thickest RW skull! In addition, as development of acceptance that “the findings of …. [historians, scientists etc] are always tentative” has been a year 11-12 syllabus aim since c1970, one has to lament the colossal waste of Australian taxpayer dollars represented by the attitudes of Bolt & Co’s CC Denier followers. All knowledge is tentative; if it weren’t, there’d be no human progress!
I also note that debating has been part of school syllabi since Menzies was PM. Now (as then) the essence of debating is that one must be able both sides of a topic, since one often learns which side one’s arguing only at the last moment. Anyone who can’t do that has also wasted taxpayer dollars.
To be frank, re CC, I question the extent to which atmospheric pollutants are the result of human activity since 1800, given climate cycles (like the Little Ice Age) happen, and that no way to measure that extent currently exists. Where atmospheric gaseous & particulate pollution are concerned, I believe, to a very considerable & dangerous extent. If, however, the question addresses the role of human behaviour (specially if “unprecedented” is used), I’m one of the “Give Earth [sic] the benefit of the doubt, because we have no reliable way of measuring how much is natural, how much is caused by human behaviour” people; adding “But IMO, the faster humanity cleans up act – air, soil, water & vegetation – the better”.
We do know that excessive SO2, CO2, methane & particulate levels (usually of volcanic origin) have very serious effects on weather & human ability to survive – qv the 10 Plagues of Egypt and the Wastelands of the Oedipus & Arthurian cycles (the former probably contemporary with the plagues). Slow change = species adaptation; fast, annihilation!
IMO, anyone who doesn’t want atmospheric, water, land pollution and global deforestation redressed as a matter of urgency lives in a parallel mental galaxy very far far away! When you know the Farmers Federation (& Ian McF) support Carbon reduction schemes (& not just for future financial returns) you know we’ve got problems!
Forgive errors; visitors have arrived.
It was Peter Lindsay:
http://www.aph.gov.au/house/members/member.asp?id=HK6
OMG, Turnbull cried again. He must have seen Lucy in the sky with diamonds.
I want to see a lot more of “this” reported over the next couple of weeks!
What about JA! “Ha, now Turnbull is in charge, it’s now ‘game on’”! Sure is!
http://www.smh.com.au/national/humbled-turnbull-i-will-change-20091125-jrwc.html?autostart=1
ETS dismissed as joke
http://www.gladstoneobserver.com.au/story/2009/11/26/ets-dismissed-as-joke/
I tend to agree…
Shows On,
Well done, son!
It’s definitely Lindsay!
If I don’t slap the sunscreen on today, in fifteen years time I might develop a melanoma.
If I don’t stop smoking today, in twenty years time I might get lung cancer.
If I don’t vaccinate my child today, in twenty years time she might get cervical cancer.
If we don’t tackle over population today….
Yeah, bob, why bother?
The planets align:
Asylum seekers off the OV
Increasing storms dry up the flow of other boats
Record breaking temperatures / bushfires across southern Australia
The Libs openly and very publicly divided
The ETS passes in the senate
Libs grilled over Utegate in the reps
Rudd with plenty of upcoming opportunities to be all ‘statesmanly’ around the globe
Better and better economic outlook
A perfect storm of excrement for the Libs
Because the current ETS is like applying 1ml of sunscreen to the entire body….?
Eratosthanes
All very true. But you have presented only two thirds of the picture.
What about the trends in Australia’s major environmental sustainability indicators?
Happy with those as well? Happy to add 13 millon people to the CO2 emissions challenge?
Peter Lindsay possibly isn’t standing for Herbert at the next election, so that’d free him up to say what he really thinks of the loony right in his party.
See Leigh Sale’s twitters
If only he’d do it in the vicinity of the Murray-Darling river system where it’s most needed.
If there’s a substantial swing against the Libs next time, moderates like Pyne and Dutton will be out of parliament! That’s the danger for the conservatives, the hard right being in total control (because those people are in safe seats).
The water that is.
bob
that’s not what the article you quoted from stated or implied. It said:
So it is saying that action now means a reducation in 20 years time, not no effect whatsoever.
My IPCC panel member friend is very clear on this: we can’t do much to stop climate change IN THE NEXT TWENTY YEARS.
The change in this period is already set in motion and is irreversible, due to our actions in the past and the stuff that’s wafting around up there now.
We can take action to stop it getting worse IN TWENTY YEARS TIME.
So any CPRS/ETS inevitably will have no effect for TWENTY YEARS.
Sorry for the yelling, guys.
http://www.gladstoneobserver.com.au/story/2009/11/26/ets-dismissed-as-joke/
Reading anti-ETS articles from those who do believe in manmade climate change are always enlightening. It puts new perspectives on things, which is always good when it gets drummed in to people that the Rudd ETS is the only way to attempt to rectify climate change.
The ETS is what we might call a start. The quality of the start is questionable. Naturally. All the 100 per centers and all the special interest groups and all the trogs have a problem with it. King Coal does not like it which is definitely a good sign.
But a start is all that the ETS is meant to be, and, given our system of governance, probably all it could be at this time. It will now be up to the political class to transmute the start into a solid middle and a brilliant end. For all our sakes, I hope the plan does move to a strong middle game and and a brilliant exit strategy for what will need to be around a zero per cent of current CO2 emissions.
Because, in the long run, that is going to be what it takes.
Googling of the site shows that the ABC did not report a story about the Australian Federal Police interviewing ex-Howard government minister and present Ambassador, Amanda Vanstone, and three serving Liberal politicians in relation to a visa granted to a Mafia crime figure (on drugs and conspiracy-to-murder charges), who just happened to have been a donor to the Liberal Party.
Surely a big story, worthy of front page and top-of-bulletin placement.
What was their reason for not covering it? Lack of funds? Laziness? Oversight? Incompetence? Not enough minutes in a news bulletin or bytes on a webpage?
I doubt it!
Bias is as much about what IS NOT said, as what is.
bob
I don’t think anyone has ever said on this blog that Rudd’s ETS is the only possible approach. It’s the one that’s there.
2295
I agree with you that story was important and a serious omission from the ABC news.
Any others?
While the world cranks up to CO2 emissions CC will move right along and we should be budgeting for expenses related to adaptation to CC outcomes. This will include changes to sea level and changes of rainfall patterns. Some of this expenditure is being incurred now as the irrigation areas of the MDB are being reduced.
There are two other imperatives in terms of both prevention and adaptation. Firstly, windfall gains from CC need to be taxed heavily. I refer to property prices in areas where rainfall increases dramatically as a result of CC.
Secondly, we need to have a proper public policy process to generate a National Population Policy.
He makes a good point.
When’s the Senate voting on the ETS?
Boerwar
Why? If your doing that, should those that lose value get a tax depreciation?
I’ve heard some dumb CC policy ideas over the past 10 years or so but that one is up there.
Totally off topic – but does anyone know where you can get figures on party membership in australia?
sorry – your = you’re (in case the grammer/ punctuation Nazis are still out there).
I notice nobody bothered to respond to my post re the 52/48 poll to the Liberals in SA.
I ask if there are others not to be picky but simply to suggest that the ABC on the whole DO report what other media are saying in relation to big stories. I’d love to see the ABC not take other media reporting at face value. I’ve heard that the ABC news webpage is staffed by just one or two juniors during weekends and overnight. These kids are not out on the road knocking on doors and asking their own questions. They either aren’t capable or not allowed to read news items and determine what emphasis should be placed on news. That standard of ‘independent’ reporting is not possible on current funding even if there is a desire to get to the truth.
ABC radio was reporting that the Senate may be sitting as late as next Tuesday. aph site has not been updated since 22 October. Slackers.
2304
Has it occurred to you that you might be on ‘ignore’?
Probably not until next week. The government seems happy to let the Coalition Senators orate themselves into exhaustion. Then the Reps will have to come back to accept the Senate’s amendments.
Bob1234
I find these “Why bother?” questions facile!
Look at how difficult it has been to get what’s on the table passed into law. You get what you can get. Show me a single political team anywhere in this country that you think would have gotten more through the senate than Rudd and Wong have. People are looking at the events of the last few days through the prism of internal party politics – but getting the ETS passed brought the Libs to the point of implosion as it is. The danger to the – admittedly fairly pissweak – ETS on the table was real.
It will be worked and reworked according to the science, the economics and the political realities of the day. What we have now is a structure for directly associating a financial cost with emitted carbon. We can now at last start to play the actual ball game of how much that cost should be in order to achieve the outcome we need.
The ETS just sets up the rules of the game. If the initial rules had to be weak in order to get everyone to agree to play the same game then so be it. That’s the political reality. We often lay the tern ignorant at the feet of conservatives, but the potential for failure to achieve even this much was quite real and progressives who ignore this fact are – tautologically – showing their ignorance.
Not having a go at you here – just the guy in the article.
tern = term
Dave55
To be consistent.
Those who lose value are being compensated in various ways by the taxpayer through the ETS arrangements.
Right on cue
They haven’t even started debating it today yet. They’ve been doing, and continue to do, a ton of other stuff. Ian Macdonald complained earlier that the government had spent the day wasting time when all the Senate really wanted to do was get to the CPRS, as odd as that sounds. There is a reference in today’s Dynamic Red to Friday and Monday, though it’s not clear to me if it is definitely sitting on those days.
bob see syksie at 2179 and diogs at 2180.
Hope that helps with the relevance deprivation.
Based on the last couple of pages, that’s impossible
Sorry being a tool backfired on you.
triton
saw somewhere? that the Senate is sitting into the weekend and next week to get through all the business.
First they complain that they don’t have time to debate and then they complain that it’s wasting time when they do…
Which will mean we get to see some floor crossing in the House too.
In fact, the Liberal deniers in the House probably won’t bother going back to Canberra.
Political parties are very secretive about the true size of their membership.
Sky news had clips of Albo and Chainsaw saying the HoR would need to come back for one day next week to sign off on the EST
I strongly doubt the Senate will sit on a weekend. More likely it will just come back next Monday.
Bob: how can we ignore you?
Labor actually has a fantastic opportunity in today’s Q.T. they can thank the opposition for pledging to support the amended CPRS while attacking people like Abbott for claiming that the coalition is reserving the right to change the scheme if elected.
Trubbell at Mill
I liked your photos, especially the one of Joe’s cat nervously eating his spag-bol and keeping a furtive lookout for Mad Malcolm
The Mike Rann “sex scandal” has been forgotten by the MSM, outside SA anyway!
People in my state forgot very quickly about Della Bosca and his affair.
boerwar
But people benefit and lose from random environmental events and changes in government policy all the time. Why should land owners be penalised for something that was completely beyond their control?
Renewable energy will be a beneficiary of the CPRS (and MRET) as a result of carbon based energy being more expensive – should it be taxed more heavily?
And basing it on rainfall achieves what exactly – who classes what is good rainfal and what is excessive? Places with good rainfall now don’t get taxed more – in the future, we are going to need these better rainfall areas (these people you see as profiting from CC) to produce our food; taxing the land more only increases the cost of food.
At any rate, CGT does exactly what you are advocating.
No Government/Party is going to be bound forever by the CPRS forever. The Liberals were stating the obvious. Perhaps the timing of the statements was politically stupid, but what can you expect from the rabble these days?
When the time comes, and the figures can be relied on, agriculture will have to be included. In all probability, when the time comes, the majority of the farming community will support it. If so there will be two reasons. The first is that they are first cab off the rank in terms of suffering the practical consequences of doing nothing. The second reason is that they will probably be playing a major role in carbon sequestration through the development of specialized farming techniques. Aussie farmers are hyper-adaptable. That is to say, the surviving ones are. The non-adaptors are like the trogs: Doomed to redundancy, bankruptcy and irrelevance.
There might be some questions along this line in QT
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/malcolm-turnbull-faces-fresh-labor-attack-over-ets/story-e6frgczf-1225804088873
Dave55
I don’t mind subsidising the losers one way or another as a transition policy. I do mind the winners getting a free run through pure bloody luck. Fair’s fair.
I would tax gambling winnings (tax-evading, money laundering industry that it supports) while I was at it.
evan14,
Sex scandal? What sex scandal?
Vera, i am really bissoff. Nobody responds to my post, nobody praises me, nobody loves me, nobody swims with me, there is no Toothy today. I want to be loved!!!!!
It’s a pity that it’s the SA voters who’ll have to go to the polls for Rann next year.
I really don’t like the look of this Liberal 52/48 poll… I just hope it’s not true and released for purely political purposes.
The problem with the Senate agenda is that there is a fixed order of business each day, which you can see at the Dynamic Red linked above. Senators are very jealous about their rights to move their notices of motion, present their committee reports, etc. This usually takes up most of the morning. Then we have an hour of QT, another hour of Taking Note, and then usually an MPI or Urgency Motion. So we don’t actually get to government business until late in the afternoon. Neither side is willing to junk all this and debate the CPRS all day. So they will just have to sit more days to get it done. The Libs have to agree to this, as it was part of the Wong-Macfarlane deal.
evan
It’s definitely dying down here in SA. He might lose a few votes but not many. The court case will be deferred until after the election, he won’t proceed with the defamation action and it appears neither side can prove themselves to be telling the truth.
Unless something comes out of the blue, like a huge swing against SA Labor in a poll I can’t see much happening.
52/48 to the Libs isn’t a huge swing?
Finns, if you really want to know about feeling isolated, read this:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/nov/23/man-trapped-coma-23-years
Bob what poll are you referring to exactly? The only thing I can find is a story about “internal polling” that shows the libs gaining ground. It doesn’t say who’s internal polling or any details regarding sample size or anything.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26402006-5006301,00.html
Opposers: boats. Govt: CC. Business as usual.
bob
That was before Chantelois and it’s just internal polling. It could easily have been during that stinking hot week when Rann and Maywald were refusing to ease water restrictions.
I’ve heard the SA Libs are very pleased with Vexnews for stirring up Chantelois and making all kinds of allegations about her and her husband. Sounds like that was what pushed her into breaking her silence.
Carr just got Mason a nice little one.
Wanted to know whether Mason was still Shadow PS or whether he had resigned yet.
Tim in SA
That’s all it will be Tim – unsubstantiated Liberal propaganda to try to give the story some traction. Liberals here and elsewhere will try to draw attention to it using whatever disguise they think will do the job.
Thought as much. I’ll wait for the next state Newspoll thanks.
Rabble babble. Kevin to meet Obi. They don’t like it.
Boerwar @2328
Guess we’ll just have to disagree on that one on philosophical differences.
Finns
never mind amigo, Miss Starpole might be knocking at your door any time now
In the meantime, you know who loves ya baby
Re Senate vote: OTOH, last time Coalition recalcitrance threatened their “flee Canberra” plans & return was mooted, Libs voted for the motion & all left for vac on time. I move that the question be put becomes an almost irresistible reason for poly-lateral support, esp. in the Xmas season.
And how happy will HoR L-NPers be if their Senate colleagues wreck their vac plans?
Rudd in good form today!
Finns: Are you going to be campaign manager for Miss Starpole?
The Amigos forever!!!
Julia, stop sticking that finger into your mouth.
Finns,
Jealous?
Evan, the OH has chopped down the pole, spoil sport.
That’s the one i’m referring to. And it’s because it’s internal polling that I say I hope it’s not true and just politically motivated. But with everything that’s going on, nobody could possibly say 52/48 to the Libs isn’t for real, until we get another poll.
The member for Sturt wants a new stopwatch for Xmas.
Julia, please stop!!!!!
She’s doing it on porpoise.
Finns, She knows you’re watching.
Finns
That isn’t you up in the gallery whistling at julie it it?
Greg’s on fire.
I tell ya – Combet is a master!
Crescendo! Climax?
Now he’s telling them that when they pass the legislation they will be supporting one of the great Labor legislative measures.
Talk about sticking it up them sideways.
More of the same from Turnball!
Ho hum!
Malcolm’s about to get a serve!
Perfect for me: Member for Dawson & Combet!
Is she Ms Amanda Rishworth MP for Kingston (SA):
http://www.bite.ca/mtBlog/archives/UglyBetty.jpg
Dave55
No worries.
I didn’t think it would happen anyway. But I was dead serious about the cost to budgets of CC outcomes. IMO, they are here now and they are going to get worse before they get better.
Perhaps the Future Fund could be renamed the CC Rehabilitation and Response Fund and it should be directed to assist sectors to shift geographically, to change their infrastructure, to retrain or whatever else is required for our society to adapt to CC consequences?
Julia, no not with a pen.
Finnigans: how about the member for Franklin?
Very nice!
Trioli gets a slap!
Grech gets a mention!
Nice one from the Min for Ag & Fish.
“Frothing at the mouth” Nats are mad dog!
“Trioli becomes a magnificent judge of character”
LOL go Burke!
What’s wrong with that Ponting mob? 2/153, they should be 1/675 by now.
Finns,
They WIs are like the Oppos: bowling wide of the off stump.
How does he do it? Pyne becomes more annoying every day.
Bob 1234
This 52/48 poll was taken in marginal seats and was explained a long way back those marginals would include marginal liberal held seats such as Unley and Stuart as well as the marginal labour held seats.
Practice, BK, practice.
Current Opposition = Rabble
Evan, it’s none other than our Leigh:
http://www.themonthly.com.au/files/pictures/picture-156.jpg
Starving keys is apparently the key to internet harmony:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/26/2754284.htm?section=justin
Just thought it may bring a smile to some faces.
Does anyone think that this Liberal Hiatus will have any bearing on the results of the byelections? I personally think that their primary vote will suffer a few per cent but the TPP will remain unchanged. A few disgruntled libs will go One Nation, or Ind first then filter through to the Lib, but they won’t swap to the Greens.
Talk about being treated with contempt
Leigh is nice- she looks like a capricorn
The minister for affairs scored a goal.
Vera,
Can I presume thatyou were talking about the one word response given by the Minister for Home Affairs to the question from that lovely lady, Susan Ley?
Vera, hope not for your sexy Swannie. he gets better and better with age.
ltep
That is one toothy troll
Joe!
Question from 8 months ago.
BK
yes I was talking about the one word answer
Finns
Swannie still make my knees tremble
Joe Sloppy yet again
Joe is a buffoon, make him leader PLEASE!!!!
The Liberals will never be the party of the future if they dont stop the fear mongering and dog whistling on:
1. Border security/AS
2. The Debt Level
3. Interest rate
4. CC (The other bad half)
enjaybee:
Who? What?
No Xmas spirit from Swannie.
All in the fullness of time vera.
The current bunny still needs some more cooking
Who is Member for Herbert?
WOW! The Speaker NEARLY named Pyne which would’ve been a 3 day ban.
Peter Lindsay goes for 24.
Peter Lindsay, the guy that wants Tuckey euthanased.
Don’t tell me bob has been caught out peddling a bogus pro-Liberal poll? I’m deeply shocked – it seems so out of character
Dave
malcolm for dinner and joe for dessert it is then.
ShowsOn
Do bans extended over sessions i.e. would Pyne be missing for a day or two next year?
Thanks, vp& shows
The Liberals need a theme for their Christmas Party. For example:
‘Trogs and Trolls Ball’
Troothys member just got the arse and has been named. LOL.
Lindsay has opened his mouth twice during question time in the last 6 months and has been sent to coventry both times.
Vera, his knees trembled a lot:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Ml3N2Lmuww
Unlike you Adam, I don’t disregard a poll just because it came from the Liberals.
AND there’s nothing been given to say it’s an internal Liberal poll. It’s simply been titled an interla poll.
Unless bob produces an e-mail I won’t belive him.
now … where’s that popcorn
Damn, I’m going out tonight.
Yes.
Dave, more rumbles in the jungle?
From “Briteny Speers”
He might be wRonG again.
Bob was worried he was losing his title of “Concern Troll King” to TTH, so he stepped it up a notch?
Dave55:
Snap.
Finns
Normie was shakin’ when Won Casey they a punch at him too
they=threw
Frank
It was too juicy not to pass on …
Finns – it’s from speers so, as Frank says, it’s probably wRONg (which would make it what, 0-8 for Speers on this?)
How many Twitter followers does Spears have? The entire Young Liberals?
You’ve got to laugh at this choice nugget:
So the Liberal senate team is STILL trying to rebel from a Coalition partyroom decision.
http://twitter.com/david_Speers
@2419 1608 (and now that will be one less if it means I’m going to be lumped in with the young libs …)
Please, can we stop taking “Britney” seriously?
Basically the deniers have FINALLY realised that there only way of blocking the CPRS was to get rid of Turnbull.
Surely they should’ve figured that out a month ago and done something about it then.
Of course my theory is that even if Turnbull was sacked now it wouldn’t matter! At least 7 Liberals would support the CURRENT Coalition partyroom position of supporting the bills, so they would pass, even if Abbott was leader when it happened.
Dave, that would wRONg no: 8 for Speers on my list.
Normie is no angel himself as TVW 7 were filming one of his Perth Concerts and when an all out brawl took place with the crowd, there is a shot of yound Normie kicking a guys head in.
pity the footage hasn’t shown up on youtube, but was discussed on the WA TV History website.
I apologize to Joe: this time it is $220B, last time it was $315B.
YAY! A Godwin Grech question!
Make that 2 less, as I’m following him as well.
ShowsOn,
It’s ON.
Here comes Grech
Here goes Tanner on Grechgate …
Finns,
You’ll have to tweet Julia and offer her your weapon of choice.
Evidence that Republicans have completely lost it. Here is Dana Perino, GWB’s last press secretary:
You can watch the video here:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/25/perino-no-terrorist-attac_n_370393.html
A PoO. Who woudda thought!
Hurt! Hurt!
As long as it is coated with 12 spices and it’s finger licking good
Libs hate being Gretched
Well more fool you.
Catches dropping faster at the ‘gabba than Liberal morale.
Dolphins don’t have fingers.
Great re rumbles but its not really time for him to go, yet. After next election.
Then my *representative* sloppy joe.
But I would settle for andrew robb for a while as well
Here’s my conspiracy theory. Minchin and Abetz are forcing the Senate to sit next Monday because that gives them the weekend to arrange a new leadership challenge with Abbott as the conservative candidate. The House will have to return too next week to accept the Senate amendments. That means all the MPs will be back so there can be another Liberal Partyroom meeting.
This must hurt the lib and media too
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/rudd-to-meet-obama-in-washington-20091126-jto3.html
There must be some on the opposition side who’d prefer to remain in their seat during the division as the dislike of Turnbull is intense.
Calling for the member to no longer be heard delays the pain to jittery members for just 4 minutes.
If they did humans would have no hope.
Malcolm doesn’t get a chance to sit in HIS chair very often.
vera,
The Libs were in uproar in QT when Kev told them.
Once this gag vote fails can someone else in the opposition move it against Tanner again straight away?
Thank vp, I missed the first bit of QT
We are about to find out, methinks.
And nothing even says it’s “Liberal” internal polling, just that it’s internal polling. But trust your bias to automatically think it was.
And as for ‘nobody’s talking about the Rann non-issue’… I won’t await your apology. It never comes from a man so foolishly proud as you
Kev might have to let QT go until 4pm if this keeps up
With the PM visiting the US on Monday that’s not such a far fetched theory.
I hope Rudd takes along some R M Williams boots for Obama:
http://alpineopinion.wordpress.com/2009/03/29/are-boot-wearers-geeks/
No. The House can not vote twice on a motion that it has already divided on.
The truth hurts!! Not talking about toothy
If Pyne was going to be suspended for 3 days it would be today, after a week that has almost seen the leader he supports lose the leadership.
Lindsay was right: the correspondence does implicate MT.
bob
Err…what? This is ‘bob-the-only-poll-that’s-credible-is-newspoll’ bob?
Oh, I forgot the rider: unless a poll looks bad for the ALP, in which case we all have to look at it very seriously.
LOL! Tuckey wants an early flight home.
Pardon the turkeys LOL
they’d be there all day!
it’s about time julia pulls that finger out and start talking
I think she must have had the finger lickin’ for a late lunch.
vera, obama did
Was that a WorkChoices mouse mat?
Finns
i know, i saw him on tellie
Was that a mouse mat?
But Bronny got a prop on her chest!!! Get her to take it off. Come to think of it, no.
Yes, Bronnie, there is.
Bishop B should just give up.
Right: Julie should not display it too much!
Finger lickin’ finns
Bronnie mentioned ‘taking their fingers off it”
Jenkins talks far too much, and tries to hard to be a good fellow, and that’s why he gets into trouble.
Julia’s on fire, too. Bronnie!
I haven’t see him in trouble at all. Very much in control.
Last question, I think.
Do pay these clowns, sigh.
Do pay = Do we pay
This is getting too silly for my liking.
Gillard by a nose LOL
Andrews cracks a funny but just comes across as a creep.
They’re people not robots, why can’t they have some fun in what is likely to be the last Q.T. of the year?
http://www.cphpost.dk/news/politics/47529-dead-candidate-gets-35-votes.html
julia, please please please stop it
Julie Bishop tries to get Albanese to sit down in the naughty corner.
I’ve switched over to the Senate. Politicians shouldn’t try to be comedians.
Albo is winding up the libs even to the last
god luv him
They can. I just think entire answers going on for minutes on such nonsense is going too far. Maybe it was just that her material wasn’t good enough.
You’re meant to be reading the IPCC synthesis report anyway.
I’m making slow progress. It’s boring reading so it’s going to be a while.
Finns, Julia just gave you a wave (not pun intended)
Roll on Newspoll
So will thye byelection results be affected by this hiatus. I say primary yes, TPP no? What ye all say?
Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, without Labor there is no 2pp? *scratches head*
Okay Libs vs Greens.. don’t you know how an election works bob?
Turnbull cuts a lonely figure as he wanders off after QT
Um, what a stupid claim of misrepresentation by the MP for Solomon…
Where’s MT?
His front bench is still present.
Abbott to resign from front bench?
http://www.smh.com.au/national/love-and-loathing-turnbull-faces-new-challenge-20091126-jtia.html?autostart=1
It would appear you don’t. It was Liberal v Labor last time, the typical 2pp. The 2pp therefore cannot go up or down at this by-election.
Perhaps you’d have been clearer if you referred to 2cp.
Hooray the mad monk ……free audioclear for everyone
Abbott is a grandstanding tool.
Obviously there is still a push to reject the CPRS legislation.
Woo, Kate Ellis, my local MP!
If I were straight she’d be mine
More at:
http://twitter.com/search?q=%23spill
She’d reject you as far too right wing.
4pm and now we’ve started on the CPRS. The Senate cannot be hurried.
She’s from Labor Right, which is to the right of me. But as far as relationships go, political leanings don’t mean a thing
I think the Senate will go past midnight, easily.
Turnbull is the only one who can call a meeting of the Lib Party Room. I bet he will not.
Dated a young Liberal in the past have you Bob?
I’m not going in to any of my relationships, and that includes even a yes or no
Yeah, see, actually understanding things requires effort.
Shame it’s nearly Christmas, I’d quite enjoy a snap election around now.
If that is true then there will be another leadership challenge next Monday.
And then even if Turnbull did win he’d have to resign because he wouldn’t have the full support of the party. Turnbull would then say that they are all dinosaurs and quit – oddly the only way he’ll escape this mess with any credibility – and then a Wentworth by-election would be really interesting.
Sounds crazy, but I’d give it about 5/1
Sophie Mirrabella begins her rant.
So it looks like they are deadly determined to stop the CPRS bills. They are stone-walling in the Senate so they can get rid of Turnbull before the vote has to be taken and put Abbott in. It’s going to be long and lost weekend for Turnbull.
Mirrabella really cannot be described. There is something so ******* about her. Though total female dog is one that comes to mind.
What? 3/229, they should be 3/1021 by now.
Finns, do you think the rebel coalitionists will filibuster the bill and go against the majority party room?
Shanahan says Minchin will resign from the frontbench so he can vote against the CPRS.
Does that mean he would no longer be the opposition leader in the Senate? Oh please let it be true.
Only Turnbull can call a Party Room meeting. He will say we voted on Wednesday and refuse.
The next scheduled meeting is in February – that is when Turnbull will be dumped.
And the light bulbs are terrible, unreliable and often faulty and short lived
I think it is just rumours:
Bob, you change the leader, you change the Party. If Abbott is the leader, he will do a Turnbull and says: “I am the leader and the majority says NO”.
Albanese saying House to resume at 10am or 11am Monday morning to pass the ETS, assuming it is passed.
If the Libs have a leadership coup on Monday, the Wong-Mcfarlane deal will be off, the coalition will officially oppose the CPRS bill, and it will go down unless 7 Libs cross the floor and vote for it. Rudd will then have a DD trigger and will be very angry indeed.
Not if there is another call for a leadership spill…
The denial faction must know if they can’t kill off Turnbull while parliament is still sitting then he gets to say leader until next year, which gives him more time to sure up his position.
Methinks the DD is back on the agenda, bring it on.
[the Wong-Mcfarlane deal will be off, the coalition will officially oppose the CPRS bill, and it will go down unless 7 Libs cross the floor and vote for it
My theory is that 7 Turnbull Senators will be so pissed off they will cross the floor.
So Abbott will be leader effectively with Turnbull's policy.
What about this. If Turnbull is kicked out. Offer him to run in Wentworth under Labor!!!!!!
I doubt that. They would be committing political suicide. Name 7 Lib senators willing to do that.
Turnbull can just say no, like he was going to do with the Tuckey/Jensen motion. There is no way to force a leadership spill until a regularly scheduled meeting.
Hahah Finns and make him Environment minister on the ALP front bench
There will always be more Liberals like chook without head under Labor.
What about all the Liberals that crossed yesterday?
Are you saying that floor crossing only really matters if it changes the result of a division?
Turnbull will look gutless if he dodges it, especially if it is being brought on by Abbott.
Can Rudd force a Senate vote on the ETS before any spill?
Turnbull would have no credibility if he did. As has been pointed out before, it is extremely rare for an MP to switch directly from one major party to the other. I don’t even think it’s happened outside of the Labor splits.
And K Rudd will be overseas. ‘s OK, Julia can handle it.
He doesn’t have a majority like Howard did, he can’t guillotine debate.
The Labor rules allow one-third of Caucus to call a meeting by writing to the Caucus chair. I don’t know if the Libs have a similar rule.
I’m putting my money on rebel coalitionists filibustering the bill, leaving Turnbull in tatters. It’s the only way they can force a leadership change, which is what they seem hellbent on doing.
OOOo, a Mad Abbott dummy spit! Will Catholic Action C21 style pull a CA 1954 style? If Tony’s heaven really exists, my beloved “Can’t hack Groupers” Leftie RC Daddy (RIP) & mates who lived their lives by Matthew 25 (35-40) will be dancing in their Mansion’s aisles!
Let’s face it, how many of the current (or former) Opposition will make under the above criteria!
Abbott’s resignation is now top story on The Oz:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/tony-abbott-poised-to-resign-from-shadow-cabinet-over-ets/story-e6frgczf-1225804240855
This is a massive sign that Abbott is preparing to challenge before the final vote next week.
A majority of the Senate can however.
The mad cries of soar losers I’m sure. They need to put up or shut up.
Only “Dear Leader” can call an extraordinary Lib party room meeting.
So it’s up to howie then
If 13 of Turnbull’s Senate supporters abstain then Labor will have the numbers to end the debate! (32/31)
The problem is these are a massive set of bills and it would just be extraordinarily unfair to force them through in such a rush.
Well that’s the sad thing here, Turnbull is actually doing the right thing, but is up against the denial faction that just won’t die.
I think Abbott is completely unelectable. If he is the opposition leader he will make Howard’s win against Latham look like a narrow victory.
Would Sloppy allow the Mad Monk to take control? After all any election result that didn’t resemble Armageddon would be seen as a good result and the MM might hold the job for a further 3 years.
Abbott is doing a door stop interview at 5:15 PM!
Nick Minchin and Abbott are currently talking in Turnbull’s office (just measuring the windows I guess).
http://twitter.com/samanthamaiden
Speers on Sky seems to think its on because Lib members have been getting emails from all over.
Would changing to Abbott mean that the ETS bill is gone in the Senate?
Rudd wins either way. An ETS or a DD facing Abbott.
Well, unless 7 cross the floor, of 13 Liberals abstain, and vote against the NEW position of the party (which will probably be “no vote until after Copenhagen”).
My brother’s a rusted-on Liberal but he won’t have a bar of them if they put a genuine God Botherer in as leader.
on #spill
It Abbott seizes the leadership and blocks the CPRS, he will do so with the overwhelming support of the rank and file of the Liberal Party, who are violently denialist. If, say, Trood or Payne or Birmingham crosses the floor against the new leadership, they will sign their political death-warrants.
Popcorn!!!!
0 and 8?
Are they completely stupid? Abbott?
This might be a good thing for the party. These two are absolute fruit cakes.
They may go for the new Vatican Council leadership team of Abbott and Andrews.
It’s rare, but not as rare as you think. For example, JM Fowler was elected for Labor as the member for Perth in 1901, 1903, and 1906, then switched to the Liberals and was re-elected in 1910 and subsequent elections.
Hamish,
Rhetorical?
But that just increases the concentration of fruit cakes on the backbench, and it is the backbench has completely undermined Turnbull’s authority.
Wonder if business will donate to Lib campaign if Turnbull is dumped.
Yes and no. It’s not so much Abbott’s policies, even if you agree with them, it’s just that he’s completely unelectable. Surely even Minchin can see that.
Won’t this put Howard in an interesting position? If the flat earth supporters win then he’ll say that his government’s climate change plans were not core promises.
Senator Ron Boswell to Senator Penny Wong:
I wonder if MT is tweeting JWH?
Howard sounded like a complete denier in The Howard Years.
Rudd has done everything in his power to get partisanship on the ETS bill and avoid a DD.
If comes Monday, MT is not longer the leader of the Liberals, all bets are off. There is little Rudd can do except what the government has to.
Surely Minchin could see that a policy of CC denial would make them unelectable. So no, he doesn’t.
Boswell’s tie dresses to the right.
Boswell: ‘Chivalry is not dead in the National Party.’
As one Labor pollster put it, more people in Australia believe in human induced climate change than believe in the existence of god.
How the Liberals think they can win an election on a platform that opposes that fact I have no idea.
Yes but the more fruit cakes (especially those with a public profile) who speak out the more votes to Labor.
There will always be more fruit cakes in a COALalition opposition.
Just their brain cells.
The #spill Twitter topic has fired up again:
http://twitter.com/#search?q=%23spill
What was that poll recently that said 43% of Liberal supporters think they should oppose the CPRS? Or was it just delay until after Copenhagen?
Turnbull can’t win.
Someone or other on SkyNews
ABC will be streaming Abbott’s doorstop interview live here:
http://www.abc.net.au/streaming/abc-video2.asx
Presser Stream:
http://www.abc.net.au/streaming/abc-video2.asx
The bottom line is so long as the CPRS passes the Senate who gives a flying fu#k what the opposition get up to in their long and tedious idle moments.
Hard to see it pass with Abbott as leader.
Possum asks “what happens if Abbott loses by a few votes?”
Yes but the whole point of an Abbott coup is to stop the CPRS at the last minute. If they stage a coup on Monday they can repudiate the Wong-Mcfarlane deal and block the bill.
How many times will abbott claim he is an honourable man ?
Three days in a row! If this is all over by the time I get home about 11 I shall be very annoyed.
Hmm xsend it to a Senate Inquiry.
Malcolm said no – so Tony resigned.
ALP needs a magnificent in the Denate.
7 in the Senate
ahh, the magic emails -p faked ?
The problem is, if Minchin resigns, then Erica Betz would go from deputy leader to leader. Well, he is a denier too!
If the deal is off then the Government would be free to rejig the CPBRs it takes to a DD. The Coalition would do this as well. they would not go to a DD with nothing. Their CPBR would be in principle. It would depend on: China and India commiting to guranteed targets. That is to say, never.
The Coalition CPBR would have an emphasis on undercutting the Government’s CPBR.
It turns the DD into a slugfest over jobs and Australia’s competitive positiion.
The Government would also be free not to call a DD on the basis that Australians do not like early elections.
McGauran says, ‘We may yet this stop this. I think we will. I know something you don’t.’
Or words to that effect.
Abbot’s hit pick on his ipod.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53G-GHheeEM
Did anyone else hear Barnyard say on ABC – lunchtime, that he would keep asking questions for as long as it takes to stop the CPRS getting through.
Is there any way the vote can be brought on to stop their questions or do they have to go through all the amendments first?
Abbott is trying to sound conciliatory, he is trying to paint Turnbull as an extremist who wants everything his way.
OK, no direct challenge, but no denial of a spill either.
He can’t do that. Eventually the Government will move a motion to end the debate once all the amendments have been considered. The Liberals would have to support it considering their position is to vote for the bills.
OK. Turnbull got 45: something against Nelson. He got 48: against something on the spill motion. Which means that notionally he increased his leadership ‘vote’ between Nelson and Andrews. What would he get against: Abbott? Would the dampish, youngish mob jump ship? The temperatures are going to get higher and higher. The drought drier and drier. The ocean higher and higher. The glaciers further and further uphill. They will now that no action = insanity. However the notion of waiting to see what Copenhagen washes up would be very tempting.
The critical question will be: ‘Will Hockey jump ship?’
Well he used the *H* word once and loyal …loyal….loyal… half a dozen times.
As he applied the knife. Lots of bad blood being stirred up.
He sounded like he is waiting to be drafted.
And of course announcing it today means there is the entire weekend to work the numbers before parliament sits again on Monday.
The Wong-Macfarlane agreement was that the bill would be brought to a vote at the end of the debate. If 7 Libs support Labor, the bill can be brought to a vote and passed.
That’s what I think Kev should do – hang on until the due date and do them like a dinner with Abbott as leader.
Would the Libs be concerned about Turnbull/Grech emails in the context of election material?
Abbott voted against the spill motion. So all Abbott needs is to get 6 MPs to change their mind and he wins.
Psephos – How long have they allowed for the debate?
Check out the lyrics to the video I posted – suits Tony to a T:-)
Ah, I’m seeing the Tories Dream Leadership Team: OL (HoR), Abbott, Lib; OL (Senate). Barnaby Joyce LNP. Given LNP, why not? They’re both Riverview College (SJ, Sydney) Old Boys – Dinkum! Come in, Equivocators! perhaps?
Good old Willie S; still has a quotation for every situation.
So Abbott has resigned as Minister for writing books. Who cares.
Only if Rudd can make the mud stick to the Liberal brand. Not easy to do if Turnbull is no longer a parliamentarian. I’d expected him to leave politics immediately if he gets rolled.
I think the current plan is not to sit on the weekend, and to come back and vote on Monday or Tuesday.
But any bill can be pushed though all its stages very quickly if there is a majority to do so. The bill could be passed this evening if a majority of Senators want to do so.
ShowsOn
Assuming that some of the 35 who voted for the spill not night vote for Abbott. But I imagine that if there is another spill, deals will have been done and the numbers counted.
This is brilliant. The conservatives are resigning and tearing the coalition apart based on their belief that climate change is a lefty conspiracy, and that any short term damage will be swept away by their vindication in the long term.
Problem for them is……climate change aint a lefty conspiracy.
This lot have been scoring own goals left right and center this week.
The Senate just wasted a whole lot of time on a division.
That’s why he has announced this today so they can do the numbers over the weekend.
but who is Abbott kidding. the punters are not stupid. he quits so he can topple turnbull and stop the CPRS bill.
Where have Glen and GP gone lately?
Abbott becoming leader is a G.P. wet dream, but it would be a nightmare for Glen.
Which kind of summarises the problems with the Liberal party.
Mirrabella has resigned.
Of course under Turnbull, Abbott or Hockey the party is split down the middle on this issue. Each of them will struggle to maintain order unless the polls get a large boost.
It’ll be interesting to see a “good” Christian like Abbott asking the dog whistle questions as leader. Labor will rip his false morality from his body and toss it aside.
LOL! No wonder why she was in such a bad mood when debating Kate Ellis.
Speers on Sky Noos saying the rank and file Liberals are in full-on rebellion.
Who knew that Sophie Mirabopoulos was Shadow Minister for Early Childhood Education, Childcare, Status of Women and Youth?
“The louder he talked of his honor, the faster we counted our spoons” – Samuel Johnson
sloppy joe asked voters for *fORGIVENESs* a bit too early !
Abbott has Pell in his corner.
Paul Borgiourno on Ten News says Abbott has the numbers for a succesful spill motion next week and that the leadership ballot would be between Abbott and Hockey.
He also said that BOTH Minchin and Erica Betz will resign to put pressure on Turnbull.
Speers says more resignations will be coming in shortly and there’s talk of an Abbott-Tony Smith leadership ticket.
The Two Tonies Ticket is back.
That’ll be worth millions of votes LOL
That’s her title, but all it amounted to was constantly complaining about student unions.
Tony Smith is the next to quit, then Minchin, and more according to Speers.
Abbot and ?
Whats next, the libs jumping a cliff somewhere while signing Cumbayer
Psephos
Tony Abbott and ? I just don’t know who the second Tony would be.
Tony Smith confirmed.
Some clown on Twitter:
latikambourke
Govt will try and guillotine debate on the CPRS to try a force a vote tonight, before Malcolm Turnbull is rolled by Tony Abbott.
less than a minute ago from TweetDeck
BB @ 2250
Your comments as usual are spot on. When the so-called Ute affair broke the MSM were crying for Rudd’s blood. When that was shown to be a hoax it went quiet fairly quickly. Lewis offered all sorts of excuses for his part in the conspiracy all of which were a lot of tosh.
Now that we have seen some (not all) of the e-Mails between Grech, Turnbull and others, these individuals should be brought to account for their actions and pursued relentlessly by the MSM. Had the boot been on the other foot (i.e. had the e-Mails been between Grech and Rudd) there is no doubt we would be subject to lurid stories of conspiracy and insurrection ad nauseam. I won’t however hold my breath waiting for the likes of Shannahan, Lewis, Milne, Ackerman, etc. and all the shock-jocks around the nation making this their headline story any time in the future.
Is there any difference between the communications between Grech and Turnbull etc and what happened with Nixon and his co-horts at Watergate?
Van Onselen on Sky.
See I would’ve thought Smith was in the sensible faction.
Did Abbott say that Industry wants them to block the CPRS? I thought all except the coal mob were quite OK with it.
Ho Boy! Abbott! The bloke whose list of enemies can only be written on a “Half as big again as a normal toilet paper roll” toilet paper roll!
My happy Old Man (RIP) is off to comfort OH’s furious welded-on Liberal Masonic Old Man (also RIP).
Where are Gilbert & Sullivan, Monty Python & “Yes, [Prime] Minister” writers when you want them!
Another heavy blow… Mirabella has resigned.
Abetz to resign
Welcome to 10 minutes ago ;P
If Abbott loses the challenge, then Turnbull will just have a back bench full of climate change deniers!
How will he get ANYTHING through? Does he WANT to lead the party when the back bench is full of nutters?
hearing rumours abetz is to resign
I guess Malcolm will have to reshuffle his front bench now.
Who is John Howard advising now. Turnbull or Abbott!!
Abetz is resigning after almost telling Speers an hour ago he may support the bill.
Who are the seven moderate Liberals who might vote for the bill if Turnbull asked them to?
Boyce, Trood, Fisher, Humphries, Payne, Birmingham, Troeth.
The Greens and X now have to stand up and do what is right for the Nation.
Andrew Bolt suggests it is the ABC that encouraged the Liberals to support the amended CPRS:
The magnificent seven?
What, put in place an ETS more ineffectual than Howard’s?
Didn’t she abstain from previous votes?
If Turnball survives, he can put some decent people on his frontbench!
Abbott, Mirabella, Tony Smith, Abetz, Minchin are non-performers, and wouldn’t be missed!
Maybe also F-Wells, who is a strange creature.
Who will be the genius to propose a new Conservative party?
HA HA Kate Ellis put Mirabella in her place earlier in parliament!
Minchin is one of the most efficient political operators i’ve seen. His spin doctoring has been down pat to a fine art.
Australians may not like early elections but there is too much political riding on this legislation.
If Rudd goes to Copenhaghen without, either the bill passed in the Senate or a DD put to the electorate, he’s backing down to denialism.
That’s how a good part of the electorate is going to see it…..he’s too smart not to know it.
Brandis. This was Brandis on The World Today essentially telling the deniers that they lost and should shut up because he was on the other side constantly during the Howard years but went along with many decisions he didn’t personally support:
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2009/s2754216.htm
Boy. Do I know when to post on a trivial matter.
“The dead man is no longer walking, he’s crawling” – Van Onselen quoting an SMS from a Liberal MP.
Stephen parry has resigned…whoever that is.
I suspect Brandis will be the new Senate leader.
And, if an Abbott/Smith leadership ticket was to get elected, what would stop Turnball and a few senators resigning & joining the ALP? Do you think Turnball could serve in a party that suddenly adopted a position of scepticism about climate change?
Or I guess he could resign and bring on a by-election in Wentworth, the ultimate act of revenge LOL
Tony smith, Minchin, Abertz and Mirabella are quitting, so says Shynews.
Yes Brandis also.
turnbull called *dead man crawling* says van onselen
Opposition Whip and Manager of Opposition Business in the Senate.
For one, the fact that they get expelled automatically if they were to ever vote against the party line…?
Apparently Minchin can resign from the Shadow Cabinet but not as Senate leader, since the Senate leader is elected by Senators. That would create an awkward situation.
But Bob, would there be any point in Malcolm remaining in a party that is led by climate change sceptics?
That’s a Labor rule, not a Liberal one.
steve parry gone too more to follow
Poor Mirrabella – every time Kate Ellis gets to the despatch box Sophie must feel just a little more envious. No comparison there.
All that says to me is that The Greens are part of the problem and not part of the solution.
I’ve been surprised that the Senate Liberal leadership was 2 conservatives. I would’ve thought Minchin / Brandis would’ve been a more balanced team.
Senate Libs meeting at 6:30, most likely to elect a new Opp leader in the Senate.
Penny Wong for Australian of the Year. She is doing an amazing job in the Senate.
Oh well, I think the chances of the ETS passing are zero, unless the Greens and Zenophon and a brave coalition senator or two change their minds.
turnbull must feel like getting a pistol, going to the toilet and doing the necessary.
MPs and their parties don’t always agree on all policies.
Rudd has no choice but to call a DD for the sake of the nation.
Turnbull has agreed to force a guillotine in the Senate tonight – *GRABS POPCORN*
Assuming there are any senators left that support Turnball!
Van Onselen says Turnbull and his seven Senators will side with Labor to force the bill through tonight.
Pollytics
If Turnbull gets rolled, will he stick around or simply quit Parliament and flick the bird? If it’s the latter, that will cause big problems
half a minute ago from TweetDeck
Psephos – you’re in the right place. Speers has just said that Turnbull may force a guillotine in the Senate tonight. He’s a daring devil if that’s the case.
Turnbull will be forcing a vote in the Senate tonight according to Peter Van. This is almost like a race against time. It’s UNREAL.
He can’t until July else his 2nd term would be restricted to 2 years (there would need to be ANOTHER half Senate election in 2012).
Could be a full party room meeting tonight – Sky
Bob, you bring the popcorn, I’ll bring a few slabs!
Since when has parliament been far, far more interesting than the cricket?
OK, for the first time in my life……..I’m backing Turnball!
Unbelievable! An OPPOSITION leader demanding a debate be guillotined!
That would drive the Nats, Greens, Fielding, Xenophon insane. The Nats may withdraw their support for the Coalition until Turnbull was replaced.
LOL, and the Windies aren’t doing too badly!
shanghai stock market falling over again this arvo. Down 3.7% so far.
News of turnbulls travails made it to china .
Jeez, makes you wonder if Labor should’ve run a candidate in Higgins.
Coonan might also be a member of the kamikaze squad.
Bob Baldwin to quit too.
OK, we were here on Tuesday and it seemed like an anti-climax on the night
What is the likelihood that something extremely significant will happen tonight?
Wouldn’t Rudd be keen to find another DD trigger?
ShowsOn @ 2708
I though basically everyone got the sack in a DD and terms started again?
Bob Baldwin just called it quits – Sky
It’s unreal, i am cheering for Malcolm Turnbull.
Come on Bob, it’s time the Greens also do the right thing.
Jeez, makes you wonder if Labor should’ve run a candidate in Higgins.
Hamilton might be feeling just slightly more optimistic however.
Julian Mcgoran making an ass of himself in the senate, as usual
McGauran: ‘We’re the victims here.’
Hahah, Speers says Kevin Andrews didn’t consider himself a stalking horse but the rest of the party did.
OUCH!
The half of the Senator terms get back dated to the previous Senate election, which means they will expire in 2012, requiring another half Senate election.
Now Senator McGuran a LIBERAL Senator is attacking the amended CPRS bills that he is supposed to support.
Well, Andrews was channelling Pell who is a Denier. OTOH, Pell is not channelling the Pope. The Vatican is not a Denier institution, I believe.
Will X vote with the Libs to force a vote and then vote for the ETS? That would be 1 less Lib needed.
Don’t the Greens support a vote happening anyway?
Pass the popcorn!!!!!
Bob Baldwin is to resign
Some random on twitter
rashasman #spill #libsimplode abbott is bound to push for leadership, wilson tuckey tipped as new shadow treasurer LMFAO
Rudd’s out of country. Gillard is in charge.
Will she allow the guillotine?
She’ll take away our fun if she does!
LIberals theme song.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=metNk_1hhvs
If Turnbull forces the bill to pass the Senate with the required liberal numbers, I take my hat off to him. He’s won my respect unreservedly.
McGauran ‘still hopeful’.
This lot are such a rabble that I’d even give the Greens a chance of winning Bradfield.
Note all the dud shadow ministers are resigning!
Nats talkiing fuel loads and bushfires.
They have yet to realize that AGW will fundamentally change the bushfire rules. A lot of other folk have been discovering the new rules lately. They have died or had their houses burned. The interesting thing is that the new rules WILL KEEP CHANGING the more energy enters the system.
The denier Liberals are talking about bushfires now, they are filibustering.
The Government should ask them to be relevant to the amendments.
The ghost of John Howard is trying to reclaim the Liberal party before our eyes.
Frank
What is the difference between a surprise and a genuine surprise? LOL.
I wonder if the Lib Senate meeting at 6:30 AEST is to force the wets to not support the ETS…
I thought that as well. We may get a decent opposition after this dies down.
Current speaker does not understand that there are different natural fire rotations for different ecosystems. Ignorance personified.
Sophie Mirabella on Sky
Next Newspoll predictions?
lol @ http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Next_Australian_federal_election&oldid=328004599
Mirabella “I cannot support this flawed ETS”
ShowsOn
Depends on whether they have a WTF option in the answers.
It will be released next week.
Libs 24% Nats 10%
Lindsay Tanner speaking to Frau Kelly re ETS.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSq2VMfhdlk
@ 2747
Love it
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/tony-abbott-poised-to-resign-from-shadow-cabinet-over-ets/story-e6frgczf-1225804240855
Race to pass ETS amid Liberal resignations
Bloomin’ heck!
You go out for a couple of hours, come home and half the Liberal Party have resigned
MY OH just sent email in favour of CPRS to our local member who has just resigned.
All this over a little bit of hot air!
OO poll on above link
Can Malcolm Turnbull reunite the Liberal party?
* Yes 25.17% (1418 votes)
* No 74.83% (4215 votes)
Total votes: 5633
Voters right again !
Current speakers recommendation for national parks: ‘grazing slashing clearing’.
Keep hearing libs saying they wanted to deny rudd going to copenhagen with a victory.
o so that speech about Bushfires was meant to be about the ETS!
Geez
Yes, it’s all about their visceral hatred of Rudd.
Mirabella is the most annoying fed politician and has the nerve to talk about “good faith”
I never in my life thought i’d be seeing Isobel Redmond leading the SA Liberals, or Tony Abbott leading the federal Liberals. It really does show how bereft of talent the right is today.
Penny Wong giving the Nats a nice rogering
Looks like Obama will visit us sometime next year, according to the new U.S ambassador!
Methinks the Liberals won’t form part of the welcoming committee.
Steele Hall isn’t dead yet, maybe he can lead the Liberals
(and he might actually challenge Rudd on the moral conservatism stakes!!!)
Wong is raising her voice at the Nationals!
Penny Wong taking out the trash in the Senate
Bob: is there a bigger dud Liberal leader than Bailieu?
Hmm, Deidre Willmont is looking for a job, perhaps she can be parachujted into Curtin and she can lead the party.
Penny Wong rocks!
That is all!
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/thestump/2009/11/26/liberals-explode-turnbull-finished/
2769
She is serving up the science. More drought. More bushfire days. How embarrassment for the Deniers. They are going to call ABARE and CSIRO conspirators and liars.
Wheat to be possibly imported by 2050.
the parrot will taking a lot of the *credit* for all the resignations.
Apparentley was hammering anti AGW/ turnbull very strongly this morning.
Hope they hide the knives in the Dining Room
Today’s whether in Melbourne is a good example of climate change for if i understand the forecast correctly as the warming occurs Brisbanes whether will migrate south, and whilst that will mean increase rainfull in the northern part of the Murray Darling Basin.
The problem is Sydney’s whether will migrate to Melbourne increasing storms that could increase the chance of bushfires starting from lighting strikes.
P.S i note a large number of Liberal MP’s appear to be very quiet on all the carry-on.
Libs Senate meeting in 25 minutes, Senate comes back from dinner break in 55 minutes.
*grabs popcorn and deckchair*
Dave: 2GB for two days has been non-stop “NO ETS/GET RID OF TURNBALL/RUDD IS EVIL” etc.
Just another day on “Liberal Radio”.
Oh, and this will make it the fourth Liberal leader in two short years. Niiiice
This is all better than anything on TV. Senate will be fun tonight.
That’s a deckchair you stole off their Titanic?
Yeah, the ABC should have an extended 7.30 Report, you’d hope!
Pollytics
Oh Noes – Bob Baldwin hasnt resigned! What will the world do now! #spill
1 minute ago from TweetDeck
And start Lateline at 10pn.
The ABC should do it all night, it’s not as if they’ve got anything useful to air on a Thursday night! And, Abbott becoming leader would be the biggest comedy of the lot!
From The Punch
2785
Its “pm’ not “pn” (post meridiem, not post noon).
and watch senate tv in the meantime.
It had to happen the insane right is too insane for a sane liberal. The real question is, how far is the mad right willing to go. You need to answer that question first.
This is really a weird intepretation according sam Maiden of Oz. If the bill is guillotined and passed tonight, then there is a question of legitimacy. WTF?
Labor is the Government here and it got the Bill passed.
Oh no, the Banyard is saying the people has spoken and taken back the Parliament.
Really, Rudd has to call an election over this.
http://twitter.com/samanthamaiden
Malcolm Turnbull presser at 7pm
Turnbull presser at 7pm
MT Presser at 7pm.
Malcolm has called a presser for 7.00
Nah, Rudd can just let them implode even further, while he goes off to see Obama in Washington.
Is this it?
Fake Senator Fielding:
http://twitter.com/FakeFielding
This madness has to stop. It’s beyond joke. This nation does not deserve this as we are paying these donkeys.
Rudd must call an election over this
ShowsOn: very funny!
Any chance Turnball might switch to Labor?
Unlikely though!
Fake Senator Fielding:
http://twitter.com/FakeFielding
Ok, so what will Turnbull say……?
A. I will stay strong. I am invincible
or
B. I give up
And Price on 2Ue and Goldman who is as rabid as the parrot about it. Both told everyone to email their MP.
My OH’s email telling our local member to support Turnbull was sent about 15 mins before the announcement on Sky that he was no longer on the resignation list. He’s on a wafer thin margin and I bet all the Labor people in the electorate sent him an email. lol.
ShowsOn: he’s been effectively their shadow minister for Senate Obstruction!
Banyard said Malcolm will step down.
In that case, GO SLOPPY JOE!
Turnbull news conference at 7pm AEST
There will be no early election, not only for the dozens or good reasons not to call one before July next year, but because there is plenty more time for the Coalition to fall apart even further.
I’m way behind on that one lol
Barnaby is sounding more absurd by the hour!
evan14 @ 2809
Joe’s not that stupid surely….
Joe will side with the flat earthers if that’s where the votes are
Michael Johnson has resigned, says sky noos
The Oppn mantra will be that Labor will be borrowing from China to pay to developing countries. Joyce just informed Speers. That will go down well in the Lib electorate
Isn’t it great that this is all unfolding during prime time.
Now I know how Tories felt on 11/11/1975.
Now Tories have some idea of how I felt on 11/11/1975; tho they weren’t destroyed by another party, just by civil war
Yep, Hobart 1954 ND 11/11/1975 WERE this crazy
Hockey will run if he knows Turnbull can’t win. There is no way he will let Abbott gain the leadership without a fight.
No one cares.
Sky News cross to the Turnbull conference room
If Turnbull goes tonight expect the cat population of Australia to decrease by tomorrow
Come on Malcolm, show us you got balls.
Albo wasn’t far off the mark with his 24th November prophecy of 2 months ago.
Confirmed: Abbott, Mirrabella, Parry, Fifield, Cormann, MAson, Johnson, Expected: Minchin, Abetz, Smith
Who thinks Turnbull will just resign and throw his support behind Hockey?
I wonder where Bishop J stands
I wonder if Turnbull will get teary like Fraser did…
According Speers, the big loser will be Rudd as well.
Not me, I reckon he will continue in carsh or crash through mode
Taking bets : Will he say *I’m the leader…I’m the leader* ?
Did he mime that ?
Malcolm will crash through.
Bishop for Leader!
please, please, please
Frank, that will be Speers wRONg No: 9
Howie to return…. OH NO!!!
If MT (and the bill) go down it will be a victory to the ignorant – shades of what is happenning in the US.
Speers say malcolm will resign
Vera, oh yes, Howie is a changed man:
http://www.crikey.com.au/Media/images/080118-Howard-sitar1-08552728-ae1d-4bf7-989f-acd01c7b15f4.jpg
http://www.abc.net.au/streaming/abc-video2.asx
i am cheering for Malcolm, go, Malcolm, go.
Go malcolm
Me and You Finns
He’s got balls anyway!
I agree with everything Turnbull has said so far.
MT’s going for it – BIG TIME!
I smell blood.
strong oppening from turnbull
i want him to crash through. Go Malcolm.
Turnbull’s political career would’ve been much simpler if he became a Labor Senator in 1994 as he wanted.
has his presser started?
The rebirth of Malcolm!
Go Mal!
Where’s Bishop?
Abbott can joint the Mad Dog Nats
lawyer speaking again!
The old investment banker just wont die – risk management, good on you Malcolm.
Is ABC news going to just run with the entirity of Malcolm’s presser? Seems a tad indulgent…
Speers wRONg again
I used to wonder why the Liberals never promoted Catholics (Phil Lynch as deputy a rare exception), but looking at what’s happened with Nelson, Turnbull, Andrews and Abbott, maybe Catholic and Liberal Party just don’t mix.
Also, why doesn’t staunch monarchist Sophie Mirabella call her future King and Liege Lord Charles for his views ? If you’re reading this Sophie, just go to
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/4966002/Climate-change-must-be-tackled-before-global-poverty-says-Prince-Charles.html
As much as I detest the conservatives, I have to admit Malcolm just earned a few points from me with that speech.
He’s digging in.
I guess Peter Costello is reclining back, watching all this.
Malcolm for PM!!!
I see Tony “Plotting Skills” Abbott hasn’t ruled out a leadership challenge. Speechless.
Can anyone report on progress of the ETS?
Yes, go here:
http://www.abc.net.au/streaming/abc-video2.asx
I have far greater respect for the man after his stance.
Speers wRONg again
What a surprise.
He has the right policy, he just doesn’t have a party willing to support it.
Amigo, No: 10!!!!!!
Speers wRONg again… losing track of how many stuff ups he’s had
Yes, imagine if Charles is King by the time of the next election – who would Sophie follow, her King or her Liberal Party leader?
If she defied her King, could she be tried for treason?
Dario, i am tracking, it’s no: 10
The Coalition front benches will be a lot better off in the absence of those who have resigned.
well joint PM along side Kev at least
mesma should be there !
Is it just me, or does Malcolm look more relaxed then ever tonight?
It looks like Turnbull is standing firm and sounds determined to pass the ETS.
samanthamaiden
We are watching a historic split in the Liberal Party tonight. Does it live up to Tanner’s quip about the Labor split in the 1950s ?
half a minute ago from web
Vera, after Rudd, Gillard, Combe and Ellis
Over to you Tone! Your Move!
Turnbull is looking like a real leader
Clearly Speers is getting his advise from the silly billy Right and they appear to be acting agressively prehaps they know they don’t have the numbers and therefore trying to sound like they are.
Crying Woof
Pity he doesn’t have a party that wants to be lead by him.
Turnbull’s arrived!!!!!!
*eats some more popcorn*
Ignore that re-post. Bloody internet.
No wonder the poor bugger’s gone grey! It’s a wonder he’s got any hair left!
Pollytics
Shorter Turnbull – you bastards don’t have enough dynamite to blow me out. #spill
less than 20 seconds ago from TweetDeck
Sam Maiden:
Tonight many journalists in the country are going to be at the Walkleys when a big story is playing out in Canberra.
From Bernard
Shame, David Speers, Shame. Your losers – Turnbull & Rudd – are big winners.
Turnbull has done a pretty effective job of painting the resigners as a bunch of climate change deniers who would kill off any chance the coalition has of winning the next election.
Lots of new job opportunities for Turnbull supporters.
Kev: Draft Mal now
Well that’s not what he said. He said that Minchin personally will oppose it, however he has promised Turnbull that he won’t interfere with its passage.
In other words Minchin realises if he wants the CPRS blocked he has to figure out a way to get rid of Turnbull by early Monday afternoon.
samanthamaiden
The Emperor has no frontbench !
half a minute ago from web
Pollytics
@samanthamaiden You reckon! Haha!
half a minute ago from TweetDeck in reply to samanthamaiden
Vera and Finns – Speers was wRONg again!!
Gee Malcolm’s got b…lls. You’ve got to respect him for putting on that performance in front of the ghouls.
As I said, the old Investment Banker never went away – a deal is a deal is a deal.
Karma payback from 1975 me thinks.
That’s not what T just said. Minchin will see the CPRS through the Senate with a resolution by 3.45 pm tomorrow – Minchin will vote against it.
So who will resign from the front bench if Abbott becomes leader?
Hunt, Pyne, Brandis…
I’ve got to hand to Turnbull—-he’s one cool cat, so to speak.
Meanwhile over in Fairyland known as The Greens.
ShowsOn
I bet it won’t be Mesma!
What, how could the little Australian Greens take the glass of Obama, they have bigger egos than the Liberal Right.
So the CPRS will be passed tomorrow by 3:45.
We should all feel genuinely sorry for Chainsaw.
BK – my OH reckons that he’ll see the Bill through and then tell them to stick their leadership and make sure Joe gets the job.
Bob Brown green with envy because Obama invited kev for a chat
And then resign from parliament leaving them with a by-election in Wentworth that they will lose.
BH – the OH may have a point there. Wouldn’t the irony be delicious!
I was waiting for Malcolm to say “Well may we say god save the Queen…” …
i posted few nights ago that Malcolm will use the old Vietnam War tactic: I will destroy it in order to save it.
The US has come up with 17% of 2005 levels. That is a disastrous SFA. The Greens are right.
And Kev will give him some cushy job lke he did to Brendan and Peter
Zombi
LOL
If T can get this through the Senate and loses his job in the process Rudd just might consider offering him a job. Possibly something to do with heading a climate change body to oversee the start up of the scheme – that’d be appropriate.
And Turnbull! It is so sad! He has the right policy but just can’t convince the nutcase denier faction that they are wrong.
More than delicious, BK.
I’ve never had much time for Brandis but today he said that the sceptics should shut up now that the Party Room has voted. Said that he had to bite his tongue for years over things that Howard did that he disagreed with. That was a really good advice to Abbott and Minchin.
ZMao. Well, that seems to be the US approach to the Copenhagen negotiations.
Albo is about to make a statement about the progress of the bill.
next newspoll 95:5 ?
So what’s the timeline for the rest of parliament? Passage of ETS tomorrow afternoon? Will a spill be forced in Turnbull tomorrow morning?
Kev can give malcolm the job of making us a Republic
Really, Nobody ABC is really not doing its job. ABC2, at the least, should have Red Kerry and Jonsey on this issue since 6pm. I want my 8c back.
is there anywhere the 7.30 report can be streamed live on the internet?
vera
And Abbott could install Sophie as Shadow Minister for the Monarchy.
Front page of their ABC
http://www.abc.net.au/news/
Good idea Vera
Speers is a tool- suggesting, straight faced, that the defeat of the ETS would be a blow to Rudd, who doesnt have the numbers to pass it. And funnily enough Sky still has the “liberals to unite” as one of the headlines on the front page!!
Turnbull cant survive, but good on him for going down fighting
And 4.30 WA Time
Stuff Rollercoaster
Turnbull has had a huge win this week. He has stared down the loonies in his party and won.
I have said for over a year that Abbott will become leader. I now think that is improbable.
Turnbull will lead the Libs to defeat at the next election.
Albo:
a comment in ‘the punch’: :”Quick get Norman Gunston down to Parliament house!”
He hasn’t won until the CPRS bills get through the Senate. Oh, and even if that happens it will come at the expense of his leadership.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K9hZ7kjgFh4
Frank wont stop the MSM spinning as guillotining
Albanese talks:
http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/live-blog-the-malcolm-bligh-turnbull-mutiny/
WOW! So the OPPOSITION LEADER has pleaded with the government to end the debate WAY early in an attempt to save his leadership!
Turnbull is the Labor Manchurian candidate who is willing to crash and burn so long as the CPRS passes!
Then he will just resign from parliament.
The CPRS will pass the Senate tomorrow. Turnbull will reward his loyal troops with shadow front bench positions. He has won, the conservative trogs have lost.
hahah Joyce ‘peer-reviwed science’. Buffel grass as the correct response to global warming. ‘Clear the forest and plant buffel grass.’ What a tool.
Joyce putting sh*t on the NFF. Let’s face it. The Nationals are a coal-fired party.
Blame all of this to Robb. He threw the cigarette that started the bushfires, depression or no depression.
I don’t think his leadership can survive this.
Why would he? He has nothing to do with the Senate.
Speers is such a dill, framing this as a left-right issue. HOWARD was going to introduce ETS, What about France and Germany with conservative governments?? How about the governator in California?? How about the farmers federation??
the party does genuinely face ideological issues but climate change is more complex than that
Penny Wong has summed it up! geez!
Boswell is having a sulk that it was the National Party that it took the Right on!
Okay
I don’t think the Liberal party can survive this; there is no way any leader could unite them.
The most likely scenario I can see is the resigners all becoming Nationals and the rest remaining Liberals.
And I remembered tonight why I used to be a Malcolm Turnbull fan!
Get onto the Parliamentary live feed of the Senate and look at a professional (Penny) deal with a dill (Barnaby)
Rupert Murdoch:
Boerwar – how come it’s always the ‘tools’ that have the loudest voices.
I’ve been really disappointed with Bob Brown and Christine Milne in all this – they could have had some good input but decided to play their own politics from the start as well.
They can’t now say they are holier than thou.
[Pollytics
David Speers is spot on - the rank and file of the Libs are on the fringe compared to the broader public. Especially with the Libs #spill 3 minutes ago from TweetDeck
The House needs to approve the amended bill. So when the Senate finishes debating on the amendments determines when the House will sit for the final vote.
I didn’t as well. I changed my mind.
The vocal trogs do not have the numbers, Turnbull does. Hockey will not challenge, nor will Abbott.
There will be a leadership change after the election, I thought Abbott would have been leader, but he has Costelloitis. He lacks the cojones to challenge.
You pay me and i will still not read you! opps i just did a National Party
I wonder if Petro Georgiou will call Mirabella a political terrorist?
Joyce thinks Buffel Grass is the answer to global warming. A died in the wool dill.
Totally agree, and predicted that as well.
And I hope the good voters of Willagee remember that when they cast their vote in 48 hours time
O dear me haver i tuned into the comedy channel by mistake
O and the punc line is the Grass! yes we need a good smoke
Can I just flashforward 6-8 years from now.
*shakes head*
I could not hand out how-to-vote cards for Tony Abbott to become PM i just couldnt.
instead Nelson, Turnbull, Abbott…..
I blame Costello he would have been still leader by now
John Howard better step in this is just a joke IMHO. And I thought Labor were worse during Crean…no this is 100 times worse than that. FFS is it that hard to come up with policy and back a leader???
Zoomster! Petro who!
@ 2912.
I hope he succeeds. Australia will be the winner.
Is Joyce just really really stupid. Confronted on Sky with the overwhelming public support for ETS, he quotes the little petitions he has gathered!! What a joke
My prediction.
Turnbull will survive. The old right has lost control and they know it, this is their last hurray.
News Poll prediction: 56:44 just like it has been forever.
Turnbull approval: Big jump to over 30. He has done what needed to be done 12 months ago.
From here it depends on the branches, if moderate sane candidates are put forward the party will once again be a viable opposition.
Formal spit with the nationals ( about bloody time).
Glen,
Howard’s dead hand is all over this! I think he is pulling most of the strings from behind the scenes!
There is probably pay-back for those who wanted to tip him out during APEC, 2007,also!
At least Turnbull does not have to purge the party. They purged themselves.
Glen! I feel for true Liberals like you for whilst this is a diffcult issue it really is not worth spliting over but sadly for Australian politics the Liberal are in a shambles.
A question for long time ALP members how was the ALP able to avoid this sort of crisis during the Howard years for there were some big issues but everything was handled extremely well compared to what we are seeing with the Liberals.
The saddest thing is that he has the right policy, he is backed up by the facts. But there is a core bloc in the Liberals that just have absolutely no idea about science, and thus have no idea how to make a rational decision on this issue.
But it seems that core block has convinced a block of waverers that Turnbull should be opposed for OTHER reasons, such as his leadership style.
Glen
It’s about time people like you accepted that Howard destroyed the Liberal Party.
Bitter memories of the 1950′s ALP Split.
Glen, Howard is the one who set up this mess. The Coalition is finally reaping the poisonous crop he sowed over 11 years of indolence.
But most of the people who are Liberal supporters want the CPRS blocked until after Copenhagen.
If Turnbull wins in the parliament he loses with voters who say they support his party.
With good reason, Glen. If he’d had the gumption the Libs would be in a better position now, but Turnbull just showed that us how much of custardy coward Costello was.
The ALP caucus never denied science.
Fredn we ruled this country for more than a decade and well IMHO.
Howard is not to blame for what is happening now. Peter Costello is. That fool should have been leader and we’d not have had a front bench with Nelson and Turnbull and Abbott all doing there jobs and not with crazy ideas in their heads about becoming leader.
Glen, my sympathies for you. This is the passage of fire that a party must go through after the loss of such a strong leader. I predict MT will be the next Liberal PM in 2016, after his party begs him to come back in a Kevin Andrews-led 2013 election loss.
Glen Costello never had the numbers for the worship of Howard was all consuming
Agreed fredn, I continue to be amazed how Howard escapes any blame for this mess
red kerry saying hockey will not run against turnbull
Mexican B – Kim Beasley. He was a harmoniser. Even our bad times with Latham were nothing like this week. Crean was a good, hardworking bloke who made great changes but he was just not electable. Kim wasn’t electable in the end either because Howard tagged him tickerless. It stuck.
I don’t think he will be in parliament after the next election.
It puts the job he did between 96 and 01 into perspective.
Indeed, Frank C, and how!
ShowsOn – in a two party system the rusted-on Liberal votes will always filter back to them through minor party preferences. I’m sure the Climate Skeptics party are rubbing their hands in glee at all the blue ribbon votes they will win.
There never was an issue as black and white as AGW or not, nor with such earth-shattering consequences if a party gets it wrong.
BH you mention Simon Crean, he pushed though some large changes to the structure of the ALP that potentially could have caused a split but the ALP held together.
Tomorrow we will get to see how weak Turnbull’s leadership is when the Senate divides to end debate on the CPRS amendments.
Howard will need a police cordon around him when he walks tomorrow morning. Hope he gets knocked out by a stray microphone.
Interesting to hear what he has to say about his badly behaved children.
Love this!
Mexican B – because the common enemy was Howard and the job was to get rid of him before he did greater damage. And along came Kev!!
Dave that’s not news. Its clearly Abbott that wants to run not Hockey
X banging away in the senate – hasn’t he said he will vote no ?
somethings got to give.
Abbott and Co think they’ve got the numbers and if they continue to challenge Turnbull even if they lose so he’s is a goner.
If Malcolm was smart he’d install a new shadow cabinet tomorrow.
Glen
That’s what was fundamentally wrong with Howard’s 3rd term – he thought he was king and was ruling the nation. If he’d remembered he was governing the nation his party might not be in this shape.
Dave @ 2982
I agree – but that assumes Turnbull runs. Maybe he’s had enough of this circus.
the other bit is that if turnbull goes he will run.
Glen, if there is one thing Turnbull has demonstrated in the past couple of days is that he has the toughness to be a leader. Costello never had it.
As a conservative you may agree with him or not in key policy issues…..but don’t doubt his leader’s qualities.
Is the hand of Hiacynth in there somewhere?
LOL! This has turned into an episode of 24, can the denier faction execute Turnbull by 3:45 PM in order to stop the CPRS!?
STAY TUNED!
No, he resigned last month.
by “turnbulls runs” it means if turnbull stands his ground.
so joe wants a free ride
Ania – yes, I agree. The greatest threat to progressive politics in this country in the longterm is Malcolm Turnbull. In the short to medium turn it’s Kevin Rudd.
Don’t you believe it.
The mad right can vent their spleen as much as they like, they are noisy, they are fed by the Sydney shock jocks but they represent 10% of the electorate and they like every one else get only one vote.
Further they have nowhere to go but some irrelevant minor party.
Take a look at the position of the NFF and business if you want to know what the real position is, remember, that is where the money comes from, and that is where the people with the brains and real power reside.
This had to happen for the Liberal party to have a future. If Turnbull survives ( and I think he will), the Liberal party will be a different animal next week.
Good on him I say. Now if he can just articulate as sane a position as Fraser when it comes to boat people.
Hockey should be smart enough (surprised I even said that) to take the leadership AFTER the election.
I was thinking back to the GST debate and i recall the line used against it was that if consumption fell then revenue would fall.
In 10 years i don’t believe the revenue from the GST has dropped and wont anytime soon.
The point being isn’t it a bit rich to oppose soley because of the changing Aussie Dollar.
Where were Joe and Morrison?
No, there is too much blood in the water to keep the sharks at bay. Malcolm Turnbull will go.
Gough Whitlam! He mended the rift caused by the split!
Congratulations to Ania: The big 3000 posts on this thread!
While the Liberal chaos is happening, everyone feel free to review Glenn Milne’s article about Kevin Rudd being a one term P.M.:
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/rudds-one-term-nightmare/story-e6frezz0-1111116634065
Joe is changing nappies.
Shrek is keeping his powder dry in cas he has to step up to the plate against Abbott!
They know they do not.
Turnbull has grabbed his party by the testicles and said this is what we are going to do. The trogs can resign, he does not care.
I reckon a lot of trogs will not contest the next election – in protest of course.
But if a spill motion is successful it would be impossible for Turnbull to win. So in that circumstance surely Hockey would step up instead of just letting Abbott win by default.
its loopy time
More to the point where’s the loyal deputy who is forever by his side? Off shoring up her own job no doubt.
Glen
Howard cross a bridge that should never have been crossed in August 2001.
While the Liberal chaos is happening, everyone feel free to review Glenn Milne’s article about Kevin Rudd being a one term P.M.:
What do you think the odds are that he will tomorrow publish an article declaring Kevin Rudd’s honeymoon over?
Glen, you have my honest sympathy. I cant believe that the Libs are so bent on self destruction. If the current polling is reflected at the next election they are in for major disaster.
That said, i think the architect of all this is Howard. He would not plan for a succession and when he was gone there was no-one credible to step up and lead.
I think Costello has to bear some of the blame, but as has been said before, he never had the numbers and the only way he was going to be leader was as a gift from Howard.
I think the Libs have got to really get it that that have to rebuild from the ground up, and the current senior people they have are just not up to it and should go.
I reckon that the ALP now is in much better long term shape than the Libs ever were as they have such a depth of talent in their front bench (many of them women) who seem to be being allowed to build their own profiles, regardless that their leader is very popular.
Then Hockey would be stuff.
Hockey should sit out and resign as shadow treasurer refusing to be a part of Tony Abbott’s team.
and get smashed in the train wreck?
The ALP is fundamentally a collectivist party. King Caucus rules, particularly when we are in Opposition. We are structurally and ideologically better equipped to deal with adversity. The Liberal Party is an individualist party. Its members only work as a team when they have a strong leader to make them do so. Menzies, Fraser and Howard were strong leaders, and kept the Liberal Party in order. All their other leaders have been too weak to do so. On top of that we had a leader in Kim Beazley who was universally respected in the party.
If Abbott isn’t elected unchallenged then it immediately puts a question mark over his leadership, and would make Hockey to obvious choice after Abbott loses in a landslide.
The smartest thing for Joe Hockey’s career would be to stand by and whistle innocently.
There will be NO spill motion before February.
I agree that questions would be asked of Hockey if he didn’t run for the job – Costello the gelding all over again.
I don’t understand Minchin’s reported position. Apparently he will still help to guide the CPRS legislation through the Senate, despite resigning from the opposition front bench because he didn’t support Turnbull’s agreement with the government. Does that mean that he will still vote for the CPRS? If so, why bother resigning which would have been necessary if he intended to break rank with shadow cabinet and vote against it.
Can anyone explain?
If Turnbull gets the CPRS through then I think he should be Australia’s first President when we become a Republic. I’m officially moving Miranda Ker down to #2 on my list and Geoffrey Robertson down to #3.
Psephos – I agree except Malcolm Turnbull is a strong leader in front of the wrong sort of party. The old Howard guard needs to go first. Tonight’s presser shows he has the balls to be a leader, his party needs to modernise first.
Abetz should quit too then. He’s going against the leader and Cabinet.
Exactly. Hockey needs to run as the sensible faction’s candidate.
Redn – yes. As much as I cheered for him tonight I can’t forgive his attitude on AS. He succumbed to the bad side of his party with the TPV thing and the constant questions. It’s let the looney Hansonite element loose.
The fake email and John Sullivan business with Grech is evil stuff too. So Malcolm will really do anything to get what he wants.
He is after tomorrow apparently. And the Liberal Senate whip is resigning too (Senator Parry).
Mesma, Mesma – calling Mesma. Where are you?
Why have Abetz and Minchin agreed to stay on???
If Joe Hockey stands though won’t he be seen as Malcolm Turnbull-lite given how vehemently he’s supported MT in the past? I don’t think any settlement of leadership will happen anytime soon.
Apparently the Libs are giving this site a hammering:
http://www.kitchenwaredirect.com.au/Knives/Sharpeners-Steels?gclid=CNLg-dmqqJ4CFY0vpAod2FSzmA
Speers: “Turnbull is like Hitler in the bunker.” Oh dear, he just can’t avoid the obvious cliche, no matter how tasteless.
SBS ran surprisingly hard on the Grech emails, they seemed to be implying it was another reason Turnbull was in such difficulty with his party.
I guess they were just stringing things together.
3032
But the power would go to his head. He’d execute a takeover of government and install himself as Emperor.
We’d all be listening to the Wentworth 2010 overture.
But that’s the whole point. The sensible faction represented by Turnbull and Hockey won’t die just because Abbott becomes leader.
Psephos
Yes, true, but Tanner’s analogy was a soviet colonel. Not quite up to Hitlerite scandalmongering but quite nasty in its own way.
Yes to all those falling over themselves over Turnbull tonight, I have two words: Asylum seekers. If he truly had credibility he would have stood up to the loony right
And Psephos, Speers was referring to a quote from a Liberal apparently.
It was the only thing the party agreed on. He hasn’t talked about climate change for nearly 2 months because he knows whenever he does half his party has a heart attack.
wow, am I topper?
Not that I’m enjoying it. What’s happening to the Liberal party worries me. I’m a Labor supporter….but I want a strong opposition. One that finally puts the Howard pseudo neoconomism years in the past and is able to give the Rudd government a hell of an electoral fight, present and future.
Milne getting to the fundamental delimma here: the politics of the possible versus the biophysical reality of AGW.
3568 is the PB record. Unless there’s a poll tonight, there will be a new PB record tomorrow.
Grech will be dumped as the biggest political story of the year.
van Onsolen on Sky “Where is Julie Bishop?”
Agreed, but I think you will have to wait for a few weeks until you make a judgement. You fight when you have a chance of winning. That was not the issue to run a battle over.
There’s a very large cancer that needs to be removed before the party can recover.
Milnes is nearly as thick as Joyce
What thread went that long!
No love lost there, is there.
Are we referring to Mother Christine ?
Problem is where does the cancer end and the party begin?
It is actually very sad. This doesn’t help Australia moving faster on climate change. If we had the two major parties in general agreement, and the Greens snapping at their heels that would be the best scenario.
mb
Grech went 3500 and another Grech went about 3300.
Hiding in a cupboard?
Catch 22
Either way we lose.
Turnbull – Centre-Right/Moderate Faction
Abbott – Nut jobs
I’d get rid of Julie Bishop her WA faction is almost entirely in the with the nut jobs except Keenan.
Time to promote Billson and Morrison.
They lose a few federal elections and find out that denying science isn’t a way to win.
Michael Ronaldson sounding a bit like Saddam Hussein’s former foreign minister, claiming Americans where committing mass suicide at Baghdad’s gates.
Hey Glen in a few weeks you do get O’Dwyer! she will be the only clean skin in the place.
Reminds me of an old joke.
To save his life John Howard had to undergo an arse transplant. The operation was not a success – the arsehole rejected him.
sorry William
and thankfully she’s no nutjob.
Promote her to deputy leader
Very true, Jensen, Tuckey, Cormann, Cash, Eggelsteon are all useless deniers.
Could someone pass Bob Brown a tissue! and ask him to cry himself a river!
I’d be killing myself laughing if I was Cossie, who is largely to blame for this disgrace.
Yep… this is not going to fixed any time soon…
That pretty much sums it up; and who let the nut jobs out of their cages; John Howard. As I said, it’s about time people like you faced up to one simple fact. Howard destroyed the Liberal party.
Samantha Maiden:
LOL! Apparently Annabel Crabb just won a Walkley for here Essay Quarterly article on Turnbull!
I haven’t forgotten the dirty tactics Turrnbull used including out and out lies in regards to Utegate to get rid of Kev. How he used gretch then tossed him to the nuthouse.
Dogwhistling asylum seekers another black mark against him.
However, credit where credit is due, he’s ticking to his guns and the agreement made with Rudd over ETS
Howard treated his party like one of those US CEOs that pillaged their companies to get good looking quarterly gains, made a fortune, pissed off and left the companies to implode.
Well done, Johnny!
I took the liberty of emailing Malcolm’s parliamentary office, congratulating him on his strong stance and principled approach.
Said we need (well you know) a strong and credible Opposition, not a party of wacky and woolly climate change deniers, among other things.
Signed it off as a Labour voter.
I mean it might be enjoyable poking fun at the Opposition, but it is neither productive nor conducive to sensible debate on policy, any policy the Government puts forward.
I don’t always agree with Kevin, and meaningful moderation of certain matters is welcome, in my view. Not to mention putting the odd rocket up him over the slow or even non implementation of what he offered prior to his election.
I wholeheartedly disagreed with anything Howard did, and it is exactly his policies and approach the Liberal Party would return to if they rolled Turnbull.
That means they would remain unelectable, not that I want that to happen any time soon. But the circus that is Parliament is shameful, unedifying and pointless.
A shakeout, if Malcolm survives, would give him authority over the dunderheads, who only want to control the agenda and would and are attempting to do to him what they did to Brendan Nelson. Turnbull is not one to turn in the breeze, generally speaking. Which of course is exactly what the Lib dunders resent.
Is there any evidence that 7 Libs have moved from “no spill” to “spill” position in the last 24 hours? Otherwise Turnbull still has a small majority of support in his party. But is this viable?
As CPRS seems to be the defining, divisive issue within the Libs, what would be a “compromise” position and who represents that position? If the CPRS legislation gets through, will they all kiss and make up and follow Turnbull into the valley of death?
Stating the bleedin’ obvious award goes to… Samantha Maiden.
Julie Bishop doesn’t count. She has no passion for politics and nothing to offer to the party in a meaningful way.
Her colleagues know it. She’s expendable except for two issues, she’s a woman and from WA.
Is Speers’s first name Albert?
No. It isn’t viable to have a front bench comprised of one faction.
Well, I am thinking a bit like Bob Brown in terms of what is going to happen. I am not necessarily criticising Rudd, who appears to be targetting the politics of the possible and that is turning out to be a narrow squeak, given the way the Liberals lack discipline and are choc a bloc full of scientific idiots.
But we look like we are well and truly up shit creek, AGW-wise.
Yeah, she strikes me as one of those Liberal M.P.s that just got bored being a lawyer.
Was the poison dwarf there ?
Brown is a dickhead for one result of climater change is an increased rain fall in Northern Australian that in turn will increase water flows into the northern part of the Murray Darling Basin!
Leigh Sales:
http://twitter.com/LeighSales
ShowsOn
Yes – Julie has the depth of a Petri dish.
Psephos
Haha. I though Albert was one of the truly great organizers of the last century. Unlike this century’s Speers.
Sorry William i might have slipped a naughty word in, please edit it out.
UNBELIEVABLE! Most Liberal Senators will cross the floor and vote against the CPRS:
But would you buy a used climate-warmer from Ronno?
Don’t be so silly, Diogs. Cossie never had the numbers in his own party to challenge Howard. He was never popular with the voters. Why would he hold their hands after 2007 defeat and lead them to an inevitable defeat in 2010? Howard’s purging of the Libs of their more sensible and humanitarian members in favour of syncophants and gutless followers is a major factor in the present disaster.
Johnson calls for Turnbull to resign on Sky
Not considering he is a survivor of lung cancer who still smokes!
O’dwyer might be having second thoughts about what she is getting herself in to.
Johnson calls for malcolm’s head!!!
This is the point at which the acid ought to be put on the Greens. If the Greens supported the bill, there would be 37 votes, and we would need only two Liberal votes to get the bill through.
Vera – I’m giving him that too but not much else. The blokes might look at it differently but I don’t think he’d fight fair most of the time.
Nash would give Fielding a run for the tabula rasa prize. She does not want to be misrepresented. She realizes that other countries are acting. But then she goes on to ask what happens if they don’t act? And please explain that in terms of PPM.
This it turns out is very important.
‘If Australia is the only one in…’ But Ms Nash, didn’t you just say that you do understand that other countries are acting.
Ha, she admits to not having the level of understanding of others. Fool.
She could do a mal Meninga
She is flattered she is so flattered, and so are we!
Glen:
Better to have love and lost, …
Penny refrains from actually calling her a fool.
She is currently seeking Labor endorsement.
That point was reached 2 weeks ago but for them it’s a selfish all or nothing approach.
O poor Kelly her ads now take up a whole page, next it will be the whole paper.
It’s Time
Cossie should have toughened up and taken the leadership after they lost the election. He was the only one who could have avoided this pathetic display, which is the worst I can remember from a major political party in a first world country. It’s getting like Italy or Greece.
Or 1 abstention on the Liberal side.
I fear that Costello would’ve held the party together by demanding opposition to the bill.
The so called senate debate now is just ridiculous. I don’t blame the government from using the guillotine tomorrow.
Only you, or perhaps Frank or GG, could try to turn this into a problem for the Greens.
I totally disagree that not passing the legislation is on the Greens. It’s on the government.
It’s up to it to put the bill on the Senate and call a DD, or not, depending the voting. They were elected on a plataform that included tackling ETS.
Time for the obligatory Monty Python black knight reference.
Same place Jenny Macklin was when Beazley was challenged.
The lot that introduced the guillotine actually found themselves providing some practice for the operators…
and the greens weren’t?
Now Liberal Senator McGuaran is filibustering.
If the bill goes down by one or two votes it will very much be a problem for the Greens.
McGauran is unhappy that Bob Brown accused Deniers as being into WitchCraft. I would be unhappy as well. The accusation is a gross insult to witches.
Dio
They didn’t turn it into a problem for the greens. It is a problem for the greens because they have been playing their own politics with this. Just like the moderate Libs, they want this legislation to pass but still want to be able to attack Labor over it. If they vote against it ‘on principle’ and it passes then they’ve sent a message to their core voter base without actually affecting the outcome.
But if the bill goes down because they sided with Abbott, Tuckey and Joyce some of that same voter base will be rightly horrified.
That’s a very real political problem for them.
The Greens could go after the mad right vote I suppose.
Now Sen Humphrey said that the 3:45pm dateline tomorrow is “aspirational”. This bunch cannot even run a chook raffle
Has he been drinking or does he normally sound this nutty
Exactly, and here is exhibit A on how serious they take certain issues like Uranium mining.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtvmOX0e34I
McGauran has been reading Bolt’s blog it seems.
Both.
Diog, as usual wRONg again. are you trying to outdo Speers?
fredn
No it won’t. It will be a great result. It will be up to Rudd to call a DD as he says we need the bill passed ASAP so he can’t wait for 7 months without looking like he’s not so concerned after all.
In a DD, the Greens will win the BOP and can negotiate a stronger ETS which is what they want.
McGauran is into ‘credible’ science. Not the IPCC and a few other ‘nutty’ scientists. Apparently hundreds of scientists have ‘broken loose off’ the IPCC.
He still thinks the Antartic is ‘not melting’. Apparently he has missed the latest satellite gravity remote sensing that indicates that Antartica is losing large amounts of ice mass. McGauran also thinks sea levels are not rising. Another dunderhead who is helping decide our future.
Samantha Maiden:
McGauran cherry picks BOM ‘credible science’. A charlatan.
From Samantha Maiden
Labor tweeps report Minchin walked into Senate tonight fist pumping. Unbelievable 1 minute ago from web ]
The Greens DON’T want it to pass. Haven’t you been listening to them. They are cheering on the Denialists.
That’s not true. He can say he is calling a double dissolution for whatever he likes “stable government” or to end the “obstructionist opposition” people couldn’t give a toss exactly what bills he takes to Bryce in order to get the D.D. election.
Maiden:
Frank have you comfused the hand motion with another motion.
Filibuster on, folks.
The greens made their position clear to the electorate. If my recollection is correct (and you can correct me), they wanted a 30-40% reduction.
The government chose to negotiate with the Liberals. No problem.
It’s up to the government now to make a decision if it can’t get the numbers needed.
Understatement of the day
Only 21 against! gee that is a flop.
Well, I give that crafty old fox, Bob Brown, a lot of credit. If the Greens had voted in support of Labor on the ETS, then we might not be witnessing the Libs’ faux unity exposed an egregious orgy of bloodlust, such as I’ve personally only witnessed when war has broken out between, or among, the NSW Labor Party’s factions.
Another downfall of malcolm turnbull:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NguB1EYfHsg
You’re not kidding! This debate NEEDS the guillotine!
Faulkner slaps McGauran back into his place.
Ummmm.
Do you really think Labor won’t target the Greens. That they won’t use the obvious message.
If the bill goes down by one vote it will be a huge problem for the Greens – they will be held responsible for Australia deciding to do nothing about climate change, and their voters will desert them in droves. Every poll I’ve seen has shown that Greens voters strongly want this bill passed. If the Greens Senators betray their own voters they will pay a heavy price. At least the denialists are doing what their supporters want them to do – the Greens are defying their supporters’ express wishes.
21 out of 32 means Turnbull’s position as leader is untenable.
The best Turnbull can hope for is that Hockey wins a leadership ballot over Abbott.
Well, the greens are making themselves a very big target.
Who’s the Lab Senator catching a few ‘z’s behind Faukner?
no leave the darlings in Canberra then the rest of the country is free to enjoy summer free of putting up with these nut jobs.
Even more strongly than Labor voters in some polls I’ve seen!
Surely Senator Very-Young could just temporarily forget where the Senate is or something letting it get through.
And labor can tell them to piss off too
Hockey is dumb, but surely not dumb enough to put his hand up now. Will have learnt from Turnbull that you shouldnt go early
maybe baby will need her attention!
Just reading these posts I am surprised at the support for Malcolm… Has everyone forgotten Utegate? Sure he may be standing up for what he believes right now, but that’s hardly reason for such glowing praise.
Do you not think the AFP report will sink him?
As to the Greens not supporting this… Well lthe Govt had their chance, St Bob said they should be negotiating with them last week… If the CPRS doesn’t pass it will be ummmmm well… I don’t think you can blame anyone but the Libs.
I, for one, am happy that this one might not pass, as it will make it more likely we’ll get a better one next year.
Faulkner cf McGauran’s ‘contribution, ‘last and least’ haha. Slaughtering him. ‘It was just plain nutty.’
No wonder there so many nutties in the Senate, they are all talking to a chair .
“If the Greens Senators betray their own voters they will pay a heavy price. ”
I doubt it. But we’ll find out at the election.
Astrobleme! the comments in support of Malcolm are mor of a rejection of the nutjobs than any endorsement
In a DD election, all the Greens have to say is “vote Green for a stronger ETS and we’ll negotiate one with the BOP”. That will be easy to sell.
Faulkner destroys McGauran. Hilarious.
Eratosthanes
Absolute nonsence! I am a Green and passionatly want this bill defeated. Bob Brown just said that he has received legal advice that big polluters would be entitled to adittional compensation on top of their hand outs if the targets were later changed to be in line with scientific realities! It is totally locking in failure. Don’t you bloomin well try to tell me that I and my fellow Greens secretly want this passed! We really don’t!
Sure will and the ALP will point out that Greens support higher powerbills and higher unemployment
Faulkner! v McGauaran. Beautiful. Milne now reminds McGauran of the latest research on the Antartic Ice Sheet. McGauran’s claim to credible science reduced, in Faulkner’s terms to ‘claptrap’.
The Greens are really a bunch of farqwit. How can they side with another bigger bunch of farqwit, sigh.
Does Christine Milne’s voice make anybody else want to bash their heads repeatedly on their keyboards?
I second the motion and reserve my right to speak.
I think Milne is quite right. She is pointing out the consequences of dealing in the politics of the possible. The reality is the AGW will kill people.
Finns
Remember WWII.
Some tres interesting discussions on possums twitter.
Utegate was nothing but dirty politics, Turnbull lost.
I found his position on boat arrivals more difficult to deal with; but there are enough right wing nutters in the Labor party to balance that.
It is neither Rudd’s fault, nor the Green’s fault that the politics of the possible and the real requirements of meeting the climate change of the real will not meet. Unpleasant, but true.
LOL Finns, does the chair talk back
http://www.nbizz.com/newwavewrestling/listings/546.jpg
Now who asked that dumb question whilst Milnes was talking
What do you expect, they even wear the embarrassment of an unedited mp3 as a badge of honour.
They’re worse than the Scientologists.
ohoh, Milne has mentioned the elephant in the room: ocean acidification. tut tut.
I thought G.P. would be here saying how happy he is. Abbott is closer to being Liberal leader now than at any time.
This whole week has been a good thing for the nation.
Turnbull is battling for the soul of the Liberal Party.
He believes, and he is right, that the Coalition will get hammered if they go to the election as the party which chooses to do nothing about climate change.
It will be clear cut, there won’t be any wriggle room eg, let’s wait till after Copenhagen, let’s see what the rest of the world will do.
If Abbott becomes the Leader and adopts that policy, the Coalition’s loss will rival the ALP’s losses in 1966 and 1975.
I believe, Turnbull will join with the ALP to ram the legislation through the Senate, and the ram the result down the throats of the denialists in terms they’ll never forget.
What happens after that is anyone’s guess.
Personal views don’t necessarily reflect poll results.
I would have thought that the fishers at Lakes Entrance would have been getting stuck into McGauran about ocean acidification. It will cause their complete industry to disappear, so they should.
Ooops. Forgot. The Nats are the spear carriers for the coal industry, not for primary industries.
How can Turnbull retain the leadership when 21 Senators are going to defy his position?
Talking to one of the Labor senators on Facebook, St Bob is joining the nutjobs in voting it down.
Heysen @ 3164.
In the same sentence you just told me off for presuming to speak for all Green voters and then presumed to speak for all Green voters.
As I said, Shows On, I have no idea what will happen after that, but he’ll have enough Senators to get the legislation through.
Maybe they’ll form the Democratic Liberal Party!!
frank, check out ludlams twitter
Of course Milne is right. The tragedy of the Greens’ tactics is that they are absolutely right on the science, but they have dealt themselves out of the process by opposing any bill to put a carbon price in place unless they get everything they want right now. So no-one is listening to their arguments. If you flatly refuse to “deal in the politics of the possible,” you are left only with the politics of the impossible, which are, by definition, impossible.
How pointing out powerbills and unemployment diverts from blaming the Greens on the ETS’ platform they put to the electorate?
Rudd won an election on a ETS platform different from the Greens. He’s negotiated in good faith with the party that could help passing it thru the Senate – the Liberals.
If that party is in disarray right now, it still falls on the government to make a decision. No whingeing, no blaming.
It’s democratic accountability in my book.
The next Newspoll will be fascinating. Turnbull could well improve his personal standings but the Liberal vote could collapse.
What would be the interpretation on that given the summer break had already begun.
There is a difference between Green members and Green voters and people who occasionally vote Green (like me).
More likely the Moderate Party and the Conservative Party Aristotle…
GG you dont really think turnbull will survive monday???
Psephos
Agreed that it is a tragedy. Not sure if Labor would ever have dealt in good faith with the Greens while Fielding held that particular balance of power. Given Fielding, Labor had to go to the Libs. This meant, automatically, that they were never going to be any where near where the Greens wanted to go.
OTOH, if Labor now has a discussion with two Liberal Senators to bypass Fielding and Xenophon, then the Greens come back into play.
oops ‘would’ should have been spelled ‘could’
glen
I expect the Christian Liberal Party to be the deniers new name.
stay tuned
The Liberal Party won’t split over this. They’ve never split. The only splits have occurred are on Labor and mainly because crossing the floor causes expulsion.
Glen,
The Trogs and the Truffs.
I think that’s a real possibility, Glen.
The mods and the nutters!
Sorry, so you mean you don’t know what will happen after he resigns?
I’m not even sure he will survive tomorrow morning!
A good Newspoll might allow him to survive.
Viva La Revolution!
This Lib infighting is great! Down with moderate Turnball up with loony bonkers denialist far-right broomheads! It’s brilliant – two birds with one stone. If the denialists can roll Turnball then we won’t have a pathetic excuse of an ETS and the Liberals will be so bonkers that they will be flushed from the mainstream – possibly even giving the Left of politics an opening.
bob
So explain what happened to the UAP, then.
You really do sound like a Lib!
bob 1234
Don Chipp?
I rest my case re Greens being whackaloons.
diog, sure. the colonial powers were kicked out of asia
What a crazy couple of days and an entertaining and busy PB thread. Here’s a hat tip to one of the wingnuts who helped to kick off this most fascinating of politcal spectacles:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9a_XIxpRyY
Troothy come home- your party needs you
They did in S.A. between the Liberal and Country League (Right) and the Liberal Movement (Left). Those fractures still exist and are the reason why we ended up with Isobel Redmond as S.A. leader who effectively became a compromise candidate because the party couldn’t decide between Martin Hamilton-Smith and Vickie Chapman.
The Finns were on the wrong side in WWII. I hope they don’t make the same mistake again.
Come off it Psephos, their supports voted for them knowing what their goal was for an ETS.
GG, The Troggs said Love Is All Around, including Glen
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3EXRPxC-5bE
Bring back Howie lol
Herr Doktor, there are the clever Finns and there are the stupid Finns
LOL! Even former Senator Bartlett is getting stuck in:
http://twitter.com/andrewbartlett
You know you suck when even ex-members of extinct parties are having a go.
He indirectly caused this. Howard should’ve made a new party rule that all Liberal M.P.s must learn about science.
Glen
He certainly saved a lot of talk. He stopped any action on AGW for over a decade. Hence the deeper level of shit we find ourselves in.
Plus he ensured the strength of the bolus of Deniers that is currently stuck in the craw of the Party.
If future historians have enough time and energy to give a toss, Howard will go down as one of the truly great failures of Australian public life.
If I was turnbull Id be like anyone who votes against the ETS in principal will be disendorsed and will be forced to join the Nats lol
The clever Finns disport in warm tropical seas. The silly ones fight the Bear in the snow and get blind drunk at huge rates.
I’m just reporting what the polls are showing. Green voters say they want the bill passed. And Labor is suffering no leakage to its left, which we would be doing if enviromentalist voters opposed the current bill. The greener voters are, the more they want this bill passed. If the Liberals split, as seems very likely, the Greens may find themselves in the position of being responsible for the bill’s defeat. My view is that enviromentalist voters won’t like that.
It does not reflect well on the ALP that they may well be about to present an ETS so pathetic that even the majority of the Liberal Party could support it.
The UAP disintegration wasn’t an ideological/policy split, or even a split.
More Liberals are just filibustering in the Senate. They are just reading out the same talking points and pretending they are questions rather than actually talking to the amendments.
If Turnbull survives this (can’t see that happening) he should insist that the mad uncle be expelled from the party.
Adam yet the ALP arent making light of that. They attack us for not passing it but what about ur allies in the Greens???? Why must we suffer when you wont deal with them instead?
We’re getting all the crap because the Greens wont sell out.
McDonald thinks the climate is changing. But why. He doesn’t know. He thinks the top 20,000 scientists ‘come down 50:50′. Well, no they don’t Senator. You were right when you said, ‘I don’t know.’
Another dunderhead stuffing around with our future.
Glen, if I was Turnbull I’d tell them all to stick it.
The whole Democrat/LM/New LM/Australia Party thing was a whole movement in the 60s and 70s. Small-l liberalism appears dead and I can’t see a new style being created. Turnbull is no Chipp.
And it was a defection not a split.
And yes the Liberal Movement did split with the LCL here in SA but there was no such thing at a federal level.
Glen,
The Greens will be dessert.
You Greens need to learn something about politics and negotiation.
Very interesting, if it really does come down to the Greens.
A side letter might do the trick.
This is what you get when you have classical Libs and Conservatives in the same party.
They dont do Opposition well.
This is what happens when u have no proper transition from Government to Opposition.
Don’t worry,
I’ve set the wheels in train for the good voters of willagee to be reminded of this little matter.
There are only 5 Greens, they can’t pass it on their own (unless a heap of Liberals abstain)
For every change Labor makes to get the Greens onside that would just alienate the Liberals and make them less likely to support it.
I thought you had a very suitable transition – the 2007 election.
Those polls do not offer the option of supporting a larger reduction than the 5-25% Rudd plan. Maybe those green voters are supporting Rudd’s plan because they can’t get thier first preference and will accept second best rather than rejecting the plan. in such circumstances, the Greens will not be upsetting their supporters by their current stance.
crikey whitey @ 3079
I too emailed Malcolm’s parliamentary office, congratulating him on his strong stance and principled approach.
http://malcolmturnbull.com.au/ContactMalcolm/tabid/87/Default.aspx
Getting an ETS started is beyond party politics. It is in the national interest as well as the planet’s interest. I suggest other PBs should also send an email in support.
ALP Political Strategist, Bruce Hawker said on Shynews tonight that all bets are off in the Senate. All the Liberal Senators are free to vote as they please as the Liberal Leaderships are crumbling.
That is why the Greens votes are now becoming more critical. They really should have a good at themselves in the mirror.
Senator Ian McDonald is currently simply wasting the Senate’s time:
http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/senators/homepages/senators.asp?id=YW4
There is obviously a concerted strategy by the Senate denialists to slow down the progress of the bills.
Judith Adams and David Bushby have resigned as Whips
From bernard K twitter
BernardKeane
Judith Adams and David Bushby have resigned as Whips
1 minute ago from Echofon
Where is the 9th Army?
Where is GP?
Where?
McDonald is worried about the Great Barrier Reef. He should be. When it dissolves in acid or cooks in hot seas, no electorate will ever forget the role of individual Liberal dunderheads and the coal industry spear-carriers in the Nationals.
That means it will pass because there is at least 12 Senators that support Turnbull.
Sen MacDonald agrees “the climate is changing”, he must be saying that because it’s now nightime and earlier in the day it was daytime.
Simple arithmetic is why the Greens have been irrelevant on this. Nothing they could have done or said would make any difference. They’ll have to wait for BOP.
at least we know where general wenk is
oooh. It is raining. First real rain in November. We were at about 3 ml when the average is about 60ml. Pls, pls, keep going.
Hear Hear.
St Bob & Mother Christine have stuffed up the environment to massage their over inflated egos.
Psephos
Bob Browns legal advice says the targets cannot be amended or else big coal will get to take the government to court. It is blatantly unrealistic to think that 5-25% reductions will help prevent irreversable climate change when we know it can’t. It is also blatantly unrealistic to think that we can make the targets meaningful and legitimate if doing so will mean aditional compensation. So how is it realistic to think that adequate reform is possible once this bill is passed? It makes victory impossible – it dooms this country and we may well become a pariah internationally. If this bill is passed I hope some more progresive countries put up an economic blockade against Australia.
That was then, this is now. Even if the Greens abstain rather than voting against the CPRS would help given the current circumstances.
Being leader of a major political party is not merchant banking. It is obvious now that a majority at Tuesdays party room meeting did not support the ETS. Turnbull refused to acknowledge the majority of the party room. As a consequence senior shadow ministers have resigned and by Monday noon Turnbull will be finished.
mcdonald talks about townsville
troothy’s cover is blown
Out looking for Mesma.
Senator Brown raises a point of order that Senator McDonald is talking about mothballs. Senator McDonald is concerned at moths that are still flying around, despite the mothballs in those opposite’s heads.
Are they the same lawyers that he had to beg money to pay for ?
With all these resignations, the split is a fait accompli. The partners have separated but are still trying to screw each other. Love is strange.
Where are you Boewar? Where is the rain falling?
GG
11 resignations and counting
It’s amazing how it took a massive Liberal party implosion to bring almost complete unity to Poll Bludger.
Do you Labor people who spout all this rubbish about how the greens are anti-ETS really take your own arguments seriously? Up until now it would have helped neither the ALP nor the Greens to negotiate on an ETS bill, as there was no way they could have gotten it passed. Surely now that the greens hold the balance of power it is up to the ALP to negotiate with them to form an ETS both sides can agree on?
Aristotle
It is not general. We have had thunderstorms brewing all day. In the Murrumbidgee catchment…
It was no match for the 8th Route People Liberation Army.
GP was banned for excessive stupidity.
So, now the Greens should vote for the CPRS legislation because they have been bypassed in negotiations when the government chose to talk to Turnbull instead and that deal may be unravelling? Some idiotic thinking going on here.
GG
Was he really? Was RON as well?
We’ve had a welcome storm on the NSW Sth Coast. 10ml
Our Penn has not changed from last night. still wearing the same shirt and suit.
Good. May you get one a week between now and Christmas.
Boerwar,
Ron was run off the reservation by the house bullies. I miss his contributions.
Joyce is asking about when exactly the deal is off.
Do you expect anything different from the members of the Magic Circle club ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ShFb_SL-ntE
I say Joyce should be banned from the chamber for 24 hours!
GG
yeh, I do as well, but only sort of.
NO FAIR! Bring back G.P.!
Thunderstorms?
Fair point Showson.
But depends on whether Libs take a united position. Doesn’t seem likely.
No, lots of 10mm rain…
No, make that 20mm a week, falling gently at night so that it soaks into the soil and turns the landscape into verdant beauty, all ready for the xmas hols for the hard working public servants.
With regard to the “purity” of the Greens’ position, Gough Whitlam said it all -
Here is his tale, recounted in 2001 -
“In February 1967 the Caucus elected me to be its Leader, and Lance to succeed me as Deputy Leader. It was a challenging year. I addressed the Victorian Conference on 9 June. The Corio by-election had just been announced. Inexplicably, Conference gave a mixed reception to my call to arms; to abandon the philosophy that found constant defeats to be a proof of the purity of our principles. As I said: “Only the impotent are pure.”
Boswell for the defence up and rambling
It was the “one a week between now and Christmas” that pricked my interest, Boerwar!
GP’s probably been too busy typing up resignation letters for the denier frontbenchers.
Did Ron Boswell really say “gross feed in”?
Which is just hilarious, it just shows how absolutely absurd the denialist faction is when they have people like Boswell speaking for them!
They can’t even come up with a coherent argument against these bills.
Or using the same form letter.
If they had any gumption they’d resign from Parliament these people are traitors.
November Criminals
Boswell is basically re-staging the Renewable Energy Target debate.
Boswell on. He is worried about the sugar industry. They are losing $10 million a year! This is the industry that was ‘rationalised’ at the rate of many hundreds of millions of dollars under the Howard/Costello Government. When the industry rationalization rort finally staggered to a halt there were actually more sugar farmers than before the rationalization. Classic tax-payer funded rort.
Now Boswell froths at the mouth at $10 million a year. The scheme is not practical. Not like another industry rationalization, hey, Boswell?
And yet after the next election Tuckey, Jensen, 2 X Bishop will still be on the Liberal backbench.
They are a symptom of what we found out today was a much larger problem.
You ALPers really need to get to “know thy enemy”. Go to your local library and get out some books on the history of Green politics both domestically and international. Then read scientific literature on CC. Then read text books on Green ideology, the foundations of a Green economy. Finally read Australian Greens policy. Then you will come to realize that there is 0% chance of the Greens supporting this bill!!! It demonstrates such ignorence of the green political perspectives when you ALPers float such rubbish. If the ALP wants the support of the Greens then they are going to have to make some big amendments.
@ 3237
Not only I suspect they’re not disappointed them…..I suspect they’re saying “serves you right” even when most greenies want an ETS legislation passed once and for all in this country.
Again, if falls on the shoulders of the government whether the negotiations engaged with the Liberals, can help it or not. Blaming the Greens for being true to their electorate *if* those negotiations fall apart, it’s emotive irrationality.
Aristotle
Sorry!
What’s the latest on Obama making an appearance at Copenhagen? I heard that the US plan to make cuts in emissions of 17% on 2005 levels LOL!
Where is Diogs. Yep Diogs, “change we can believe in”
Why don’t the Greens take it to Obama and leave Australian politics to the grown ups
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vhs1fvIwqhw
Centre
Obama is doing a day at week one. He will not be there at the kill, which would have been ideal. But… he is only taking 17% of 2005 levels. Which is two fifths of SFA.
I reckon those emails might have come from Godwin Grech, Boswell.
Boer
Your view on europe and it’s takeup of kyoto
please
He is going for 1 day.
LOL
I’ve heard that it is equivalent to 5% reduction on 1990 level. Does that mean that Australia will be stuck with CPRS giving only the minimum 5% reduction by 2020?
There you go, it’s settled Ron Boswell’s observations of the tides says there’s no climate change!
I am glad he cleared that up for me!
Centre, it’s more like
[“climate change we cant believe in” ]
Can you believe this clown?
He is a practical person!!!
I’m cynical enough to think that the Greens are more interested in doubling their numbers at a DD that in negotiating a better TS/CRPS; but I don’t think it will work.
If this bill gets stymied in the Senate, “After Copenhagen” comes into play & the Libs have promised to be part of that so often, what little’s left of their credibility will be shot if they don’t.
Which planet is Boswell living on?
Centre
Obama is going to Hopenhagen for one day. He shouldn’t spend too much time there as it will be an unmitigated flop as the developing world tell the developed world to get stuffed. He won’t want to be associated with failure.
The US Senate is looking at passing a 20% cut.
Boerwar & ShowsOn. One day, well that’s just fantastic isn’t it!
That wouldn’t happen. A D.D. would actually be bad for them in S.A., Xenophon and someone else on his ticket would probably be elected at the expense of Hanson-Young.
I think the Greens will have 7 seats in the next Senate whether it is a D.D. or not.
[Boerwar & ShowsOn. One day, well that’s just fantastic isn’t it!
That's all that is necessary for the head of state of the most powerful country in the world.
Hey Ari
Boswell has been around boats and tides since he was 12.
I am in awe of his intellectual prowess,why didnt I know all those boaties were closet climate change scientists.
Silly me.
Have to buy all the major papers tomorrow
good material for the old scrap book 
Which they will get if there is a lot of support for nuclear.
2 minutes of watching the Walkleys on SBS and thats’s it for me. Annabelle is bombing…
Senator Obama!!! Ex – Senator Obama!!!
Forget climate change, Boswell still hasn’t accepted the result of the Presidential election in 2008!!!
He was out with troothy in their tinnie, so he didnt hear the result
i got news for Sen McGuaran, the Michelson–Morley experiment had shown that ether doesnt exist. you bluddy idiot.
I guess if Labor debated nuclear power it MAY result in what has happened to the Liberals of an ETS.
Dario, ditto. Crabby should stick to writing.
Don’t worry Glen. You guys will survive. You’ve only got to wait ’til about 2025.
The rain is starting to fall more heavily here.
I had to double check to make sure it wasn’t just the tears falling from my eyes.
Half in riotous laughter at the Seante proceedings and then half in realising that these guys actually believe what they are saying.
I can’t help but think that the Libs might be in a different position if Turnbull wasn’t the leader. How would Nelson has handled this – probably a lot more collaboratively. I can’t help thinking this is more about Turnbull than CPRS. CPRS has just given the Turnbull haters the opportunity.
Europe?
Because they are in the northern hemisphere they have noticed climate change as real more than we have. This is consistent with the predictions of the models.
Britain, for example, has 6 million people who watch birds at least once every two weeks. These six million people will know all about the changes in distribution of birds as a result of increased warmth.
A couple of years ago a heat wave killed 25,000 people in Europe. There was not enough room in the regular morgues.
Traditional things that depend on ice, like the huge ice skating races in Holland hardly ever happen any more.
At the same time, most of western europe de-industrialized. The CO2 emissions were exported to a very large extent. (there is a split between the EU old guard/western european countries and the new lot in central and eastern europe that are now the large emitters.)
I think Spain mgiht have the largest percentage of renewables (wind and solar) in the world. 84% of France’s electricity is generated by nuclear. They are spending an absolute motsa on solar in the Sahara with the electricity to be piped back to Europe. There are lots of other effective programs. For example, one of the reasons that sparrows and other hole nesters (swifts) are declining is that in an effort to conserve energy, housing is much-better maintained. No more holes to nest in.
The dodgy thing is that they are going to continue to consume lots of high-CO2 items but that these will be produced in developing countries. This enables them to be holier than thou. They will put squillions on the table to help developing countries.
Europe is a hug net importer of energy and of nutrients. Biodiversity just about everywhere you look is going backwards. [There are local exceptions: there are more species of fish in the Thames than this time last century] Taken everything together Europe is not a very sustainable operation.
McGauran is an absolute dunderhead.
And our taxes pay this man’s salary.
I’ll be an old man by then lol Centre.
Well at i should move to Canada, NZ or the UK the Tories are running wild there.
Shame Shame Shame on the Tories in Oz.
Oz Poll
I don’t really think a DD is in the interests of the Greens. In a normal election the Greens could win 3-7 senate seats + the 3 elected last time for a total of 6-10 (probably 7). A DD would give the Greens 6-10 (probably 7). It would turn out about the same but the Greens would be joined by others on the cross-bench. So it probably won’t make much difference for the Greens either way. It’s very difficult to make senate predictions before preference negotiations have been sorted out so predictions have to be quite vague.
But they make your wish of there being a “Conservative Party” come true!
One of the reasons for that Glen, is the fact that the Conservatives have embraced climate change and are looking to deal with it.
What is the consensus here at PB now? Will the CPRS pass by 3.45pm tomorrow?
I’d imagine the Libs and the Greens might try and filibuster?
Only they’ll be full of Dunderheads and wont win a General Election ever.
No thanks.
YAY! A division! Watch the Liberals scatter all over the place.
China, the world’s top emitter of greenhouse gases from human activity, pledged to cut the amount of carbon dioxide emitted for each unit of national income 40 to 45 percent by 2020, compared to 2005 levels, the official Xinhua agency reported
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE5AP11H20091126?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtopNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Top+News%29&utm_content=Twitter
Exactly, Diog. And FoxNews bloviators will shout hurrah, Obama has suffered another defeat. Just like his “failure” to get the Olympic Games for Chicago after going to bat for the Windy City in person at the IOC.
Btw, Herr Doktor, could you tell me how I get the Gravatar I just created n into my posts in PB?
I think it’s a Greens amendment. The Opposition will be united on this one!
Glen I saw a replay of Andrews holding his presser willing to contest the leadership. Geez, he was impressive IMHO.
OOOps! I didn’t know gravatar was automatically created!
I wonder if Boswell will take the opportunity during the division to go out and check the tides.
video of Abbot’s resignation.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WMZiD1K0XM&feature=sub
The Chinese is putting Obama into shame:
Obama is offering on 17% of 2005 levels.
Diog, come out and play.
lateline up soon
There is no opposition! Just Liberal Senators and National Senators.
I think Psephos has a point, albeit hyperbolically expressed. If moderate Libs support the legislation, but it goes down without the Greens there is a potential problem. It is not a good look to have them sitting next to Joyce, Fielding, Minchin, Bernardi etc. I can imagine seeing some literature in my inner-Melbourne mailbox reminding me of this fact come the next election.
Having said that “leave in droves” is obviously wrong. Support the legislation or no, most of the Greens base will understand the reason for opposition. It is the ability to eat into the left ALP vote that will be hampered. But since Psephos assures us that isn’t happening, maybe there is no problem after all
Glen, you won’t need papers; you’ll remember it, trust me. It will be another “What were you doing when the planes flew into the WT Center on 9/11″ day. You’ll remember where you were heard ….; who told you what; who else was with you where & when; what you were wearing, ate etc; most of the day playing like a video.
There aren’t many in a lifetime … In mine: VP Day, reading of George VI’s death, Hobart 54, hearing “Heartbreak Hotel’s” first performance, Sputnik, Jack & Boby Kennedy’s assassinations, the Moon Landing 9/11, 11/11/75, changes of government … and this.
Barring accidents/ medical problems, we’ll all vividly remember this day.
Finns
It is a take. The Chinese target is open-ended. If they increase production by more than 40% by 2020, which is highly likely AND they will actually be emitting more at 2020 than they are now.
Great.
Only 52 Senators voted. A lot of pairs I guess.
Sorry, getting incoherent like an Opposition Senator. The reduction is a reduction per unit of production. Even if they achieve per unit reductions of 40%, if the total units go up by more than 40%, then the Chinese will be emitting more CO2 in 2020 than now.
ShowsOn
yep
ShowsOn
Snap! 7 Greens DD or otherwise. However I don’t agree that the Greens can’t win a seat in SA during a DD. The Greens are doing very well in our state polls and federally up a bit. With MrX running anything could happen – he was probably the only reason SHY was elected last time. His excess votes could get a Green elected and the quota will of course be lower. It’s really impossible to say for certain, however the last SA upper house is a good indicator because it had 11 elected statewide and the senate has 12. In that election there was 4ALP, 3LIB, 2MrX, 1GRN, 1FF.
Finns
If you read that article, China will probably not actually reduce it’s emissions by 2020 when you allow for growth. And it’s a voluntary target. And the US Senate bill is 20% by 2020.
Senator X’s pockets aren’t that deep to pay for additional work by Frontier.
He should have tried his luck at the casino.
Dio
That is 20% of 2005 levels. US targets = Flimflam. Chinese voluntary targets = flimflam. Spot the difference.
Glen, look on the bright side! You’ll have Abbott as leader, that guarantees you another 20 years in the wilderness!
Finn
Obama is offering a total CO2 reduction of 17% on 2005 levels. The Chinese are offereing 40-45 PER UNIT GDP. You’re comparing apples and oranges.
Chinas growth is around 10% at the moment. Compounded over the next 10 years thats an increase in GDP of around 250%. So china is offering a reduction of 40-45% on each unit of GDP but will have 250% of their current units of GDP.
If you do that math then they just promised that the will INCREASE emitions by 2020 – but only by 60% on current levels despite a 250% increase in GDP.
Just sayin’.
Funny how the only way the Labor supporters here see the Greens as relevant is if they do what the ALP needs to pass this bill.
How UNsurpisement!
The Greens made their position clear, the Govt chose to negotiate with the Coalition. Don’t come all whiney now the Greens won’t do what’s convenient for the ALP.
yeah, love is in the air. too much love.
Apologies to those disturbed by this thread’s humungousness. I’m on a bit of an unfortunately timed holiday at the moment. That means my monitoring activities have been lax, so I hope you’ve all been behaving yourselves.
Of Course
Boerwar
Our is 5% based on 2000.
Finns
Which country has set the bar the lowest? I’ll give you one guess.
Interesting that in the recent Morgan poll, 46% of Liberal supporters thought that climate change concerns are exaggerated. Liberal supporters are as divided as their reps. on the issue. It’s the Liberal Party’s worst nightmare.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/11/18/global-warming-and-cprs-polling-2/#more-6397
You’re missing all the fun Mr B!
Bob Brown currently taking the piss out of the Liberals.
Evan14
ha ha
Especially on the Willagee thread
Go Bob. More power to him.
Dio
China? India? Indonesia?
Are not these the top three global emitters after the US?
Please bear with me, because I came in late!
Question: Albo said that the Senate has until 3.45PM tomorrow to pass the ETS.
Does this mean the Government & the pro ETS Liberal senators will apply the guillotine at some point in the next few hours or tomorrow morning?
Brown:
Diog, are you trying to prove that you passed year 4 maths?
Poor old Bob Brown has been our trying to get a handle on what the Libs are up to!
He is now in the Senate showing that he is concerned that his strategy has totally unravelled and he doesn’t know what to do now!
Well, climate change will cause earthquakes as the ice masses melt and relieve pressures on the rocks below. But we haven’t seen any yet.
Yes they would have to else debate would go on and on and on. Only 7 Liberals needed for that to pass, fewer if there are abstainers.
Senator Brown:
It’s difficult to compaire proposed cuts because they can use different year zero’s (1990, 2000, 2005), because the amount of emmissions per capita is very different in different countries, because some it would appear use productivity as the basis (yuck! GNP doesn’t matter anyway, only GNH) and because big cuts should be easier in some countries.
For instance Australia has a lot of low hanging fruit of CO2 & with all our plentiful sun, win and geothermal we would be mad not to get off coal. It would seem that our state governments (and Feds) are mad.
Almost makes me wish the things in ’2012′ came true lol jj
*goes*
What I think would be amusing: Turnball quits politics immediately, there’s a byelection in Wentworth, and the Liberal candidate has to fight a campaign on the new Liberal Party policy of climate change scepticism IN AN INNER CITY ELECTORATE.
And you can bet Labor would definitely field a candidate, and someone very high profile.
Just think how divided the Libs will be after Rudd floats the Republic in a few years time
bernardi is on
It’s come 3 years early for your side of politics!
Thanks all for great coverage of the day’s events – clear demonstration of the power of blog vs msm!
*nite*
No. Indonesia is lower than Australia. Russia comes after China, US and the EU. India is lower than Russia.
Holy crap! Bob Brown is pointing out that the denial faction of the Liberals (Cash, Corrmann et al) are proposing their OWN set of amendments to the CPRS!
In other words they are defying the Coalition policy that was agreed to with the government.
‘crikey whitey @ 3079
I too emailed Malcolm’s parliamentary office, congratulating him on his strong stance and principled approach.
Getting an ETS started is beyond party politics. It is in the national interest as well as the planet’s interest. I suggest other PBs should also send an email in support’.
Quite and good work, vote1maxine at 3240.
Anything which may arrest the march of the loonies.
Finns
No, I’m proving that you didn’t.
I’ll have you know that I almost represented Australia in the Mathematics Olympics. And no “dork” or “nerd” comments please.
The Liberal Party is a broad church. Case in point: Cory Bernadi representing barely literate stuttering meatheads everywhere
ah, so now i get it.
it’s ok for the developed countries to bludge on the blood, sweat and tears of the developing countries (like India, China and Indonesia) so they can enjoy their high standard of living and then to point the fingers at these poor buggers: “How dare you pollute”.
The Indonesian Opposition Leader must have a more tenable position than Malcolm Turnbull.
Turnball tonight sounded eerily similar to Rudd!
Malcolm belongs in the ALP, he should have joined years ago!
Rudd ought to make him and a few others an offer – might be the only way Wentworth ends up in the Labor column!
I can see it now: Kev, Malcolm, Terese and Lucy sitting down to dinner at the Lodge.
Diog, never went to school. Graduate of the University of Life.
If he got Graham Richardson’s Senate seat in 1994, which is what he wanted, he would probably now be ALP leader in the Senate.
And, did it escape anyone’s notice that ABC radio News reported tonight that China is going to make substantial emissions cuts(up to 40%) by 2020?
So much for this crap being peddled out by the sceptics that Australia is at risk of going alone while the rest of the world does zero.
Dio
The EU is 20-30% on 1990 level and we are 5-25% on 2000 levels but that doesn’t even paint the whole picture. We were polluting a lot more per capita in 2000 than the EU was in 1990! So even though the EU already pollutes less than us they are willing to make bigger cuts. We were one of the worst offenders in 1990 and we will probably be one of the worst in 2020.
Frankly that’s an insult to barely literate stuttering meatheads. He’s far worse than that.
Now Senator Guy Barnett is fillibustering
ShowsOn: I’m serious! Rudd could make Turnball Environment Minister, take one of Garrett’s responsibilities off him.
That’s per GDP unit, not overall levels
What an inglorious shambles the Liberals are. Not only have they been revealed as bunch of nitwits and cowards, they are also clearly totally unbelievable and unreliable – their true characters on open display at last. They do not trust each other and have no loyalty or respect for each other. They clearly cannot expect the public to show them any respect, loyalty or trust either. Twenty-five years of pre-selecting obstinate idiots and ideologues has finally caught up with the Liberals. May they rot where they belong – in the foul ditches and gutters of opposition. Nor can this catastrophe cannot be blamed on Howard or Costello or Downer: they have brought this chaos upon themselves. What a sweet spectacle for true-believers.
Yes, Finns. That’s the problem. That’s why we’re stuffed.
There is no way developing countries should suffer so the greedy rich countries who caused the problem can continue with with their lifestyle. Especially when the developed country with the highest CO2 emissions per capita can’t even get a measly 5-25% target through without a civil war breaking out.
Cory Bernadi points out that Obama is not as popular at the moment as Bush was two months after Sept 11…
So what does everyone think is happening tonight?
Are the Liberals trying to figure out a way to knock off Turnbull?
Or are they working with Turnbull to try to get him to agree to delaying the vote until next February?
The Abbott/Minchin camp have definitely been caucasing. They are all sprouting the same “low taxing”, “it’s about policy” crap.
Dario: I wonder how tools like Bernadi make it anywhere near senate preselection!
If he represents the brave new future of the conservatives, god help them!
>>Malcolm belongs in the ALP, he should have joined years ago!
Frankly I was always surprised that he didn’t. I had a conversation with hm at the CONCON and he was more true left and more truly liberal than the ALP.
I can’t wait for the Mad Monk to become Liberal leader, take them off to the far far right and destroy them forever.
That’s what happens when you consider Nick Minchin a friend and mentor.
OOO! William’s gone off and left us without a sitter! Just when he thought it was safe to leave the house.
We have been good, haven’t we though? Not like the naughty libbies next door.
And in fact I reckon that Julia and Malcolm are having a good laugh right now, over Malcolm’s slightly soggy canapes.
Personally I don’t see why it should be passed before Hopenhagen either. It’s not as though other countries will care if our nominal cuts have been passed or not. And if we are expecting to increase the cuts from 5% to some higher agreed figure, why pass 5% legislation now and amend later?
South Australians must be so proud to be represented by Minchin and Bernadi!
My sincere apologies to barely literate stuttering meatheads
Increasing the target won’t require legislation, just a piece of regulation by the relevant minister that can be disallowed by the Senate.
G’day all!
It’s been a long time… Hope all are well.
What a week in politics!
I hope Malcolm is gone by mid morning and the ETS put off until after Copenhagen at least
I am loving this fight within the coalition. I sure hope the libs split in two. Possible names for a new party: the Conservatives, the Moderates, the Centre, the People’s Party, the Democratic Patriotic Front, the Right Party.
Night all.
Bludgers, a fun game for tonight!
Let’s draw up Tony Abbott’s front bench!
I’ll start by assuming Turnball isn’t there, and I’ll predict Hockey/Pyne/Hunt would go to the backbench.
Abbott: Opposition Leader
Tony Smith: Deputy Leader of the Opposition
Wilson Tuckey: Shadow Treasurer
Dennis Jensen: Minister for the Environment
Feel free to add more names!
It’s Time
Frankly, I don’t either. It’s not like any other country will say “Gee look at that 5% cut by Australia. They’re really taking this seriously!”
The developing countries are already pointing out how low are targets are as a reason not to do anything.
Which is likely to be as safe and sure as passage of the current legislation.
Evan
Good game. Surely Tuckey will get the immigration portfolio.
ShowsOn if they increase the targets then business will take the gov to court.
It is way too late for Turnbull to join the ALP.
Sophie Mirabella: Shadow Minister for Health
Well, considering that Xenophon wants the minimum target to be 20% I doubt he will support a motion to disallow an increase. Same goes for the Greens. Therefore such a motion would fail because the Senate vote would be tied.
evan
We had Downer as well before. This lot is an improvement!
The legislation clearly states that the target will increase inline with Australia’s international obligations.
hmmmm, it sounds like what happened in Canberra today:
Julie Bishop: Shadow Minister For Foreign Affairs, because she’ll jump ship and abandon Turnball!
I wonder where Dutton would fit in? Is he a moderate or a mad conservative?
Pyne? I think he’d go to the backbench!
Goodness knows who Abbott would make Shadow Minister for Education? The mind boggles!
Himself as chief inquisitor oops educator
LOL! But then he will never get to return! It took him 10 years just to become a parliamentary secretary, and 13 to become a Minister!
And plus, I want him to lose his seat as a front bencher!
It cannot be too long before the Liberals wake up and turn on the man who steered the “party” (sic) into this mess. The ex-leader who purged the moderates. Who inculcated in the party a strain of such hidebound extreme conservatism that the blockheads who are left are unable to cope with change.
Cannot cope with a change of government.
Cannot cope with changing public priorities.
Cannot cope with climate change.
The dinosaurs became extinct because they were unable to adapt to change. The Howard Liberal dinosaur party is going the same way.
Whether it takes a few days, weeks or years, the remnants of this epoch-making implosion will eventually wake up , rub the ashes from their eyes and identify clearly the man responsible.
And his legacy will be recast from party hero and saint to the one who bound them in treacle and left them to self-destruct.
So according to Lateline the amended CPRS will be guillotined by 3:45 PM tomorrow. But THEN the House will come back on MONDAY to approve the amendments.
That could mean that the bill has passed the Senate (and will pass the House on government numbers), yet by Monday, Turnbull may no longer be leader!
He’d bring back Bronwyn Bishop to do Education and convince Ruddock to stay on for Youth Affairs
Methinks Sturt is gone anyway, along with another 30 Coalition seats, at least!
Not that the right wing loony idiots care, they’re pleasing Alan Jones/Steve Price/Jason Morrison/Bolt/Porky Piers, and Rudd will go to Copenhagen with nothing!
I hope Kevin Adrews gets up.
So are you saying in the long run we will see this as the last gasp of the Howardistas? That it will ultimately turn into a failed revolution?
Frank @ 3423, surely Shanahan has been drinking…32% primary support! After this week they will be lucky to register a number better than the teens. In my (slowly shrinking) circle of acquaintances and friends, I think I know just one who slightly sceptical about the ETS – and even he doesn’t think climate change is imaginary: he just thinks it can be easily fixed.
It is as if the Liberals decided at some conclave or other to settle on a policy that would guarantee they would become irrelevant, unelectable, absurd, comedic, farcical, demented…..and then said ok, let us oppose at all costs any talk of action on Climate Change, and moreover, let us elect as our leader someone who fervently disagrees with us and will certainly try to impose his will on us! What a boatload of fools.
Who?
Well that’s the crazy thing, does it need the coalition parties to lose 30 – 40 seats until people like Andrew Bolt and Alan Jones realise that they are wrong, that most Australians are actually sensible and don’t believe in wackaloonery?
Could they please put on an extra QT next Monday, just so Combet can really rip into this lot?
It could be 32% 2pp
Cuppa: well said!
The Rodent’s fingerprints are all over this debacle, we know the old bastard hates Turnball!
LOL! Well, I guess they should. I mean taxpayers pay to fly everyone back to Canberra, but all the goodbyes were said today.
If that happens, if it gets through the Senate then a heap of the denier Liberals won’t even bother going back to Canberra for the final vote.
Well, unless there is a leadership challenge.
LOL
So Berowra finally elects a Labor MP?
The beginning of the end of the LNP Coalition, and probably the Liberal Party per se.
Also the beginning of the blaming of Howard for his ruinous legacy.
Worstchoices was howard’s crossing of the rubicon.
We are merely witnessing the mopping-up operations to eradicate the virus from our national pysche.
The CPRS is the logical extension of the fight against neoconnery
Can the Abbott camp get a leadership vote before 3.45PM tomorrow?
Kevin Andrews for Industrial Relations spokesman.
LOL! Cory Bernadi wants to be a leader of the Australian Teabag Party
Evan14 I sincerely hope so.
Oh how much fun it would have been to have been a fly on the wall when Coalition Senators met this evening.
Turnbull should go on the radio at 6 AM tomorrow to say there can be a leadership spill at 4 PM
Just played around with Antony Green’s calculator.
The highest 2PP vote for the ALP you can put in is 62.7%, which equates to:
ALP 134
COALITION 13
OTHERS 3
And Abbott would lose his seat too, so would Jensen!
So all Obama needs is a couple of planes
I’m actually really interested to see what the Green vote turns out to be in Bradfield and Higgens on December 5. If there are a lot of Liberal voters that want more action on climate change you’d imagine that is where they would park their votes.
Obama is USING his popularity to get some big reforms, stimulus package and health care are the big ones now, climate bill and a jobs package next year too.
Tuckey for aboriginal affairs ?
John of Melbourne…..I also hope Andrews gets up. I think he could lead the Liberals to, perhaps, a primary vote in single digits.
The Liberals still think of Obama as some sort of Islamic terrorist.
More seriously, who would be shadow treasurer? I can’t think of anyone?
Heffernon should probably get water.
Fair go! I think he would at least make the low 20s.
Well he was born in kenya
Whoever is deputy and isn’t Julie Bishiop.
Shadow Treasurer: Peter Slipper?
Their man, Grech, called him the Black Jesus.
So who would be deputy?
Cory Bernadi: Shadow Immigration?
Tony Smith!
He’d probably be shadow treasurer.
I don’t buy Shanahan’s theory about bedrock votes.
If Abbott is leader a heap more moderate Liberal voters will go over to Labor.
Tuckey: Shadow Minister For Women!
Nah, they would get back pauline for that one or CFW
Mirabella spokesperson on women’s issues.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/adviser-to-libs-female-mp-sacked-after-charity-ball-20090618-clzj.html
If Abbott wins Andrews would go to the front bench and maybe even shadow cabinet for helping take down Turnbull.
They have got over 200 amendments to get through yet!
They so far have coupled two and had a division on it after over 3 hours debate, Mr x’s amendment has taken over an hour so far and will need more debate!
Four hours per amendment X 200 = 800 hours yet before the bill can be voted on!
True, and they’d bring back Andrew Robb too in a senior portfolio, assuming he’s overcome his “depression”.
Greg Hunt? They’d demote him to Parliamentary Secretary, punishment for supporting Turnball.
If the Government won’t use the guillotine they should make the Senate sit on Saturday and Sunday.
If they wait until Monday, Turnbull may not be the leader which means the CPRS could fail.
Hartcher on Lateline really put his foot in it big time before he realised what he was saying “Rudd is the most popular leader in generations”. Whoops, he knew he was stuffed half way through “leader” but couldn’t retract. IDIOT!
Shanahan also revealed Ltd News tactics for the next election: The Libs can’t go with Turnbull because he signed off on the CPRS (so we can’t blame him for the higher cost of living prices as a result of the CPRS).
IDIOT! We know how you stooges think.
The guillotine means limiting debate on all amendments.
Well they were never going to spend 800 hours!
He would probably protest the denial climate policies by going to the back bench.
Centre: I look forward to Hartcher in tomorrow’s SMH!
Shanahan is a Liberal hack, no surprise!
Centre
Have you only just figured that they,like most of their MSM reprobates, are IDIOTS.
While the Libs are banging on about “core conservative values”, maybe someone should remind them that small government and free markets work not only for corporate tax breaks but also for individual rights. What we get from them now is the worst of both worlds: rampant free market economic policies combined with authoritarian big government social/law and order policies.
If the Libs could bring themselves to support minimal government interference in all facets of society they might actually win some progressive voters.
At the risk of starting another argument……I’m pissed off with the Greens!
If they’d get on board, Rudd would then only need another 2 Liberals.
Adelaide Now, 26 November 2009
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26406339-911,00.html
Following the Pied Piper Johnny. Funny, the Piper usually takes the rodents away, isn’t a rodent himself.
Gus I’m in a kind mood tonight
I am not well-up on the backbench talent of Liberals from other states, but you can be assured: WA boasts no notable candidates for shadow ministries. Over here, they are bereft, sold-out, denuded, emptied, starved, parched. They have no-one to put forward, except, on a good day, the incapable but face-saving, startled chirper from Curtin, Bishop, J.
Centre
True, life is pretty darned fine at this stage.
The Howard interegnum is fading faster than a liberal thought bubble.
Guess who I forgot?
Alex Hawke, “the next Liberal PM”.
Abbott will promote him, surely, as a symbol of “renewal”.
But evan, given that the Greens are the only party who can reverse global warming, let them reject the CPRS so they can take it to an election.
The Greens
R.I.P.
Also, I can’t see how the prospective next member for Bradfield, the Optus guy, would fit into Abbott’s team.
Paul Fletcher: would you call him a conservative right winger?
Don’t know much about the woman in Higgins.
The way the Liberals are carrying on it is as if the CPRS is designed to cut CO2 emissions by 93.8% by Christmas 2009.
Who are they?
LOL
I expect they’ve brought Lord Monkton to Australia, to enlighten us all about the left wing conspiracy.
I too am impressed by Turnbull’s stand against the Liberal Party society of village idiots. However we shouldn’t get carried away as he would probably be doing the same thing no matter the issue. Ute-gate CPRS it is probably all the same to him.
If he is a hard case narcissist then the CPRS is the minor issue for him now and being able to Win is the major issue, he tells himself he must crash his way through, having a certain belief he can prevail over anything. He IS the leader after all.
The narcissist wins admiration and followers…who however don’t understand what drives these people and are in the end shocked by the coldness and lack of empathy and care for anybody other than themselves.
I wonder that if in the end Turnbull gets rolled what will be his equivalent of a dead cat pay back to the Libs. Split and form his own party, go to the crossbenches, resign politics…
Narcissist
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narcissistic_personality_disorder
I hope the good people of wilagee nlote the hypocrisy here.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DkyhL7l8XM
But Turnbull is right! That’s the real tragedy here, he has the SANE policy, and yet he is being treated by the nutcase faction as if he is crazy.
When the next Liberal government is elected towards the end of the next decade its environmental policies will owe EVERYTHING to what Turnbull has tried to do this week. It will just take the Liberals a decade of going on a bizarre scenic tour of wackaloonery before it finally realises that Turnbull was right.
Turnbull seriously joined the wrong party.
The Libs are such a scream!
They can’t support the ETS because it is a tax on the Australian people!
What about the GST? NUMBSKULLS!
Malcolm’s Presser on Youtube
http://bit.ly/4oDsIQ
Oh, Newspoll starts surveying tomorrow. Hopefully they ask questions about the amended CPRS and Liberal leadership.
But that’s NOTHING, it only raised $55 billion last year!
Sadly the Senate debate has been highjacked by the loony idiots tonight!
Obviously deliberate fillibustering, on the instruction of Abbott & Minchin!
How Penny Wong keeps her patience is beyond me, I’d have lost my temper hours ago with those tools who claim they represent “the real conservatives”.
Yep, Hartcher tripped over, given his ironic smile, as was it he said a very recent Morgan Poll shows support for ETS??
Abetz talking to Tony Delroy, paraphraxing ‘will be staying on, until the sad moment comes. But ‘personally shattered’ that he is no longer able to support the leader, ‘saddened’ that the legislation is fatally flawed etc. Must do the right thing by the ‘every man, woman and child’ who will be affected by a $1000 per annum cost; Australia will suffer a huge negative impact. Dog whistling for those who believe this line..
Abetz is one of the lowest forms of humanity!
And yet people like George Brandis got rolled day in day out when Howard was leader but hardly ever complained (I’m ignoring the ‘lying rodent’ comment because that was true)
But cw, Hartcher is not meant to be biased and Shanahan works for The Australian lol.
Turnbull is right, and his performance in standing up to the numbskulls has been awesome. But this performance of his is likely, according to some, a heavy narcissistic personality trait, which is fine if you can control it and have judgement.
Turnbull has shown he lacks control/judgement, though he happens to be right on this occasion. It is great that he is on the right side of the issue on this occasion as he may end up the reason the CPRS gets through.
My caution is on getting too overwhelmed by his performance. As it is this trait you will be cursing when he is unable to resist the next Grech type plan that comes along to ‘get Rudd’.
Brandis is a Turnball supporter, he’d get dumped by Abbott!
Here’s the best prediction: Bronwyn Bishop becomes Shadow Minister for The Arts.
Well she is experienced by playing her self in the 1960′s show Divorce Court and Daughter Angela is Ten’s Showbiz Reporter.
That’s what Abbott would do: try and persuade Hockey and Pyne to stay on, while at the same time demoting Greg Hunt and a few others, & promoting his sceptic mates!
Labor must be hoping like mad the Mad Monk gets up, think of the fun Rudd, Julia and Lindsay are going to have with this turkey!
Wow, even the seat of Berowra might become really marginal!
I wonder then what reaction a person like Turnbull will have if he does in fact get dumped shortly.
TP: I think Turnball would pull the plug, and cause an immediate byelection in Wentworth! How could Malcolm remain in a party which is adopting a position on climate change at odds with his own beliefs? It’d be the ultimate act of revenge on Abbott, forcing him to campaign in a seat where there’s a lot of concern about global carbon emissions.
On a more serious note, what happens if the “nyet-sheviks” in the Senate continue to stonewall?
It is obvious the guillotine will be hoisted tomorrow afternoon. Liberals will be called on to vote with Labor to gag their party colleagues. Will they? Or will they not? Will Turnbull’s Senators stick with him or balk at the jump? If they balk, then all the turmoil will be for nothing: they will have lost their leader, their party, their deal and their chance for a future all in one division of the Senate. And if they vote with Labor, they will in all likelihood be reviled forever by a vengeful and ascendant old guard.
Will the bill pass?
If not, it will be on for young and old. Turnbull will be thrown out, or more likely will resign from the Liberal Party to sit as an Independent, willing to enlist in a campaign for Labor in a DD. How many would follow him?
It is of course not the first time that the Liberals and Nationals have manipulated the Senate to try to force an outcome on the House of Representatives. Once upon a time reactionary Senators mauled only their natural enemies, the Labor Party. But now they have gone a step further and wish to consume their own siblings. What a vile lot they are.
For my last comment of the night I would like to say to the MSM journos like Akerman, Milne, Jones, Albechtsen, Bolt, Farr, Fish Face (Blair) to name but a few:
Take a good LONG look at the rabble that you expect the Australian people to support. Why don’t you all go and lock yourselves up in a room and shoot each other senseless.
We are laughing our head off
Considering he was confronted by such a concerted campaign to undermine his authority I don’t know what he could’ve done differently. I mean if he agreed with the nutcase faction, then he wouldn’t actually be leading the party. The time had to come for him to make a decision, and that’s what he did.
ABC Online Header is: “Liberal Mutiny”. Does that suggest Turnbull’s been carrying on like Captain Bligh?
True, Thomas Paine. But one is not overwhelmed. One is practical.
What about the delusional likes of Abbott. Watch the Australian for Abbott’s next.
Best thing Turnbull could do is shuffle the deck, pronto, and make Joe Hockey his best man.
That might cool the troops.
Bastards! I nip out for 5 hours and miss all the fun. Had a good dinner and a Shortis and Simpson show. Title? “Getting Stoned.”
A bit of arithmetic. 17% of 4000 Gigafarts in 2005 is equivalent to 34% of 2000 Gigafarts in 2000.
Even if they abstain that makes it easier for it to pass. If 13 Liberals abstain it will pass.
Spare a thought for Harry Evans, it will possibly be his FINAL day of being Clerk of the Senate, and he will have to preside over what could turn into complete legislative chaos.
Well if they don’t do something pretty quickly tomorrow morning, then the Nats, the anti-ETS Libs and Greens will just keep filibusting during meaningless debate on each and every amendment so there is no chance of getting through that by 3.45 tomorrow, is there?
It was clear tonight that Labor is reluctant to guillotine anyway but evcen if they do in each amendment, by the time each is moved , seconded and spoken against, divisions taken, there is “no” way that they can get through that many in time.
Maybe by next Friday!
His middle name is Bligh.
The guillotine ends debate by putting a time limit on the consideration of the amendments. That’s what makes it impossible to filibuster a debate in the Senate, because EVENTUALLY there will be a majority that supports ending debate.
I doubt this will happen. If Turnbull is deposed as leader most likely he will quit parliament altogether.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/turnbull-defies-mutineers/story-e6frgczf-1225804383251
3519
Wentworth By-election 2010. Would the ALP stand?
Agree, though it’s conceivable he could hang around till the next election if Hockey became leader.
If Abbott gets the gig, Turnbull will be out of there in a flash!
If the bill fails tomorrow, when would be the first day on which a DD election could be held?….Early January, I suppose. January 2010 and oblivion for the L/NP.
Yes, especially if Abbott is leader by then. Turnbull has a personal vote, he was one of the few Liberals to get a swing to them in 2007.
It struck me tonight that all the “floor-crossing” action is in the Senate. Senators like Minchin of course are never really at risk of losing their seat to an angry individual electorate – the view from the top of a “Liberal” grouping on a Senate ballot paper is pretty good!
I think tonight there will be many lower house Liberals in marginal and not-so-marginal seats thinking about how they are going to get a job in the current economic environment when their “team” gets destroyed around Footy Finals time next year (Sept 11-18).
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/industry-sectors/howard-goes-silent-on-the-ets/story-e6frg976-1225804361337
The Lib deniers have painted themselves into a corner.
G.S.M. malcolm turnbull, with thanks to one JH
3523
January elections don`t get held in Australia.
They won’t do it. If a D.D. is held before July 1, there will need to be ANOTHER half senate election in 2012, which means effectively only getting 2 instead of 3 years for a second term. Why would Rudd want to do that?
3528
To have the election before rather than after the election and to get an easier Senate ASAP.
Hockey would become incoherent trying to second guess the wishes of the right faction. He lacks the backbone of Turnbull and would be blowing with the wind.
I think someone else has hinted at this – Teddy Roosevelt said “Speak softly and carry a big stick” – the anti-Howard plotters in 1989 knew they had the numbers so they didn’t have to go about pumping out their chests. (Similarly Brutus et al versus Julius Caesar). This current mob are putting up such a “noise” it makes me think they don’t have the numbers and are trying to “bluff” some of the 45 who voted not to spill the leadership into thinking it is all a fait accompli.
Shows On,
Excuse me for not making myself clear, But, even if what you say here happens, then with over 200 amendments, what I said here still applies! There is “no” way that they can get through that many amendments by 3.45pm tomorrow!
All I can see happening is that either the Senate is forced to sit until each and every amendment is processed and the bill voted on or the whole thing is fillibusted and treated as a failure to pass leading to a DD trigger which is what the Opp CC deniers, Greens, Nats and MR X and Fielding want anyway!
I hope that those two options aren’t the case and it can somehow all be processed and passed by tomorrow but I can’t see how when the deniers are wanting to delay it until after they can attempt to roll Turnbull Monday and then force the Libs in the Senate to vote down the bill!
If they chose Hockey as replacement it wont get any better. Joe is hopeless at putting together a coherent sensible argument on anything when put on the spot. He tends to spout the first thing that comes into his head.
Though I guess the right might think he is easier to push around.
ShowsOn @ 3519….maybe he would quit. But maybe not. Turnbull does believe in action on CC. Maybe he would stay and fight for the issues. The Liberal Party are – seemingly – about to choose self-destruction. In a DD, my guess is the old guard would be utterly rejected by the public, so there may be a place for the reformists in a new centre-right grouping. But maybe this is just delusion….:)
OK, so it was Minchin that agreed to the 3.45 deadline tomorrow, according to HArtcher:
That changes things. What does Minchin have up his sleeve?
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/abbott-steps-out-of-the-shadows-20091126-juq6.html
Senator Fielding is trying to get a membership into the Liberal wackaloon faction:
http://www.theage.com.au/national/turnbull-does-not-bow-before-the-executioners-blade-20091126-juo9.html
There also seems to be some genuine madness infecting some of those on the right. They have lost all perspective and emotionally caught up in doing anything to stop the CPRS and getting rid of Turnbull, it is irrational and can only do themselves serious long term harm.
What is it? 11 have resigned so far?
Well, according to Senator Brown, the SOME Liberals are going to be moving amendments tomorrow. They were all wackaloon faction Liberals.
They could be wrecking amendments of some sort to further delay the passage of the bills.
It’s a bit crazy when Labor and half of the Liberals have to form a coalition to stop nutcases like Minchin taking over the Senate.
BB
more and more i think about it,this latest spill is purely reflex.
JH has not annointed anyone , and his silence on the ETS is telling.cf earlier article.
This a revolt by the NCO’s who fatally forgot to ask the Colonel.
Turnbull will survive, thanks in part to JH
I don’t think he can, the majority of the Senate Liberals are against him.
Howie,pointedly, has not dissed the ETS, and more importantly has not come out in support of the traitors.
Abbotts coming short of a full declaration reinforces my view that this a reflex spill as opposed to a calculated spill.
Turnbull survived a (secret) ballot 48-35. I would be amazed if there are not now seven of his supporters in that ballot who’ve changed sides. Surely he must be gone.
Hockey making noises about running would be the last straw (and a clear sign that Turnbull’s time is up). Does anyone seriously doubt that Turnbull would come third in a party room contest between himself, Hockey and Abbott?
Hockey will only run if he knows Turnbull has no hope. He won’t run AGAINST Turnbull, he will effectively be the “anyone but Abbott” candidate.
This won’t happen, Hockey won’t run against Turnbull.
Dyno
Howie annointed MT, nelson knew and did the honourable thing, MT’s presser was a show of bravado and that he still has the king’s coin.
Howie merely had to say that the ETS was bad?yes? and abbott would be a laydown misere.
In MT’s case,silence is golden.
Howard just supported whoever was leader. In fact, it was one of my favourite things each year that Howard got to say that he fully supported {insert name of current leader} as leader of the Liberal Party.
But why has he stayed silent on the ETS.
He still is pulling some strings surely?
What happens if the bills actually don’t get passed regardless of agreements?
Rudd could just reintroduce the things again in an election year and watch the same self destruction all over again?
There’s something that the Greens supporters here continue to not understand and that is, that if the bill goes down, then if Rudd uses it as a trigger for a DD election in September 2010, then the “original” CPRS bill sans amendments will be put to a combined house vote!
That will mean that to try and get an enhancement to “that” bill, Labor will have to have won enough seats in the Reps and Senate especially at the expense of the Coalition in order for it to have enough electoral security to contemplate an enhancement of the ETS with enough latitude to satisfy the Greens.
It is an extremely risky strategy they have embarked on because if Labor doesn’t gain enough electoral standing or the Coalition retain their Senate strength and the Greens don’t win further seats, then their siding with the Coalition against Labor in an attempt to jazz up the ETS will have been totally in vain!
Good Lord !!!!
http://www.vexnews.com/news/7460/the-other-kevin-liberal-patriots-impressed-by-andrews-iron-will/
Well just got back from a night out with mates and none of us could believe what the Liberals are doing. Even people who don’t normally talk politics (I suspect one is conservative) think they are mad. It is quite staggering to realise that half the parliamentary Liberal party deeply believes something (CC skepticism) that the average high school science student knows is false.
I agree with others that Turnbull’s speech this evening was the best I have heard him give as leader. Honest, strong and standing for something. It is quite surreal that, just as he steps up to the plate as leader, his own party panics like schoolboys. For the first time I both respected him and also felt sorry for him.
Howard is probably going tisk, tisk and thinking this wouldn’t have happened under him. But the truth is that he is responsible for this. He stacked his parliament with ideological zealots because they did his bidding and now their zealotry is unleashed and they are uncontrollable. The amateurishness of their behaviour, the treachery and inconsistency, is disgraceful.
Tactical or not if the ETS is delayed Labor should seek a DD as early as possible in the new year. It would look suspicious not to do it now, having got to this point on the ETS. An election is needed, not just by Labor but to pass the bill.
Well that’s the hilarious thing, the wackaloon faction keeps saying “wait until Copenhagen!” Well, what do we do after Copenhagen? It still won’t solve their problem, it is an admission that the Liberals are hopelessly divided on this issue.
TP,
If Rudd doesn’t want to risk a DD over this, then that scenario is more than possible and fits with my previous post in that it will cause even further delay in the introduction of any sort of ETS.
The Greens impatience and unreasonable expectations of the introduction of a substantial ETS with all the complications that that would cause to the economy and an industrial/power generation structure that “cannot” adjust in an unrealistic time frame would just result in virtually nothing happening in a reasonable time-line to prevent further expansion of emissions and get us much closer to the tipping point with nothing happening!
If Brown and Milne don’t realise this, then they are dills! I bet they stand in the middle watching to see how many Libs vote in favour of the bill and if there are not enough, they will be forced to vote with the Government!
Bob Brown seemed almost in panic mode during his last address to the Senate tonight and I bet his calculator was running hot counting the numbers!
Scorpio
Your scenario is interesting except that there is no chance the Libs could retian their current Senate numbers in a new election, even on pols before this fiasco. Poss did the numbers months ago and it has gotten worse for them since. It will be Labor in majority or Labor + Greens. Fielding and Mr X will be “less relevant”.
That wasn’t my point. My point was that Hockey is now openly musing about running. That can only mean Turnbull is terminal.
I am hopeful that rather than voting against the amended CPRS the Greens will ultimately abstain. This will make it easier for it to pass, but without the Greens having to say they supported it.
Surely even the Greens can appreciate at this stage that the WORST scenario would be if Turnbull loses the leadership to a denier like Abbott who then makes the coalition vote against any trading scheme now and even after the next election.
If Twitter is any guide don’t count on it as his acolytes on the interwebs were faithfully retweeting the media releases etc as fact.
This is getting more surreal as time goes on.
I have recieved an email that amongst other things talks about strategies to avoid the ETS
(with todays event and my 3 kids having teeth checked.)
I presume this is what lots of the fiberals are talking about,the problem being that it ia automatic send to approx 20k people.The follow up email says that the original was a draft and to ignore the first one.
BB may have recieved same.
Some serious white-anting is going on,but who is directing it is murky to say the least.
The really, really sad thing for Turnbull is that if the CPRS goes back to the House on Monday, he won’t even get to vote for it because he will be paired with Rudd who will be out of the country.
Why is that a bad scenario for the Greens? They think they’ll have the Senate balance of power after the next election. And they’re probably right.
Moreover, the more the next election is about CC, the better the Greens will do.
I’m with Diogenes on this, I don’t think today’s events are a huge problem for the Greens.
Not if the Libs run a scare campaign about rising costs etc and mentions warns voters not to vote Green in the senate.
This is an excerpt from the 1st one,has anyone recieved something similar
ps the actually was spelt that way,and there were other spelling and grammatical errors.
Is there a 5th column within the Fibs?
Socrates,
You hope! Anything is possible in this mad political climate and if this mob have until mid September to get their act together with the backing of a cheer squad media and the likes of Clive Palmer putting millions into propping them up, then as I said, anything is possible!
Agreed, plus they would have the backing of local councils, the CFMEU (and the WA Branch want to donate to the Greens FFS) etc.
When Geoff Gallop promised the Old growth forrests in WA, the timber lobby was led by a former ALP Minister Bob Pearce, and their scare campaigns ensured that there were no ALP seats where OLd growth forrests were harvested.
St bob shouild take note.
Scorpio
Almost anything is possible. Eg. Wilson Tuckey won’t be the next PM. Neither of us know what will happen next year but I can’t se them coming back from this for a while. The Libs have damaged their brand. They looked very amateurish this week.
I think the most likely outcome next year is Labor governmetn with Greens balance of power in the Senate.
Night all.
My fear is that Democracy,itself, has been seriously damaged.
This is entering very worrying territory for oz.
Yes, with a fresh young fellow by the name of Malcolm Turnbull…
That’s something that not many people realise. Clive Palmer is the wealthiest man in Australia. He is currently the Queensland President of the LNP and is a huge financial backer of it.
He is also at this time, developing the largest” coal mine in Australia at Alpha as well as a “low emission” power station and a rail line and port to export the coal.
He is already in the process of this development and I would suspect he is behind the Nats campaign against the ETS. Barnaby is the front man and he also comes from QLD and is in reality a Member of the LNP.
If Palmer thought that there was any threat to his development, then it wouldn’t be much of a stretch to think that he has got to the many of the sceptic Libs also and offered substantial financial assistance to their electoral campaigning.
Abbott comes quickly to mind with his recent about face and we know that he has long had leadership ambitions. This now is probably the best chance he is likely to get and Palmer has probably capitalised on that and is probably the biggest influence behind this challenge to Turnbull and the ETS!
And in WA, the Coal mining town of Clollie is the seat of Forrest, which the Libs only hold with a 5.5% margin.
Scorpio
I hate the libs with the best of em, but something really stinks in all of this, and as much as it pains me, We must look beyond the triumph to see whatis the possible ruin there is.
Turnbull has been sidewindered and it aint right.
Stuff the politics,if this is a 5th column, then we havent really progressed far as a nation or a political system.
remember rust never sleeps.
If Turnbull is made of the right stuff he will hang around for future opportunities. Winning the PM’s job isn’t easy and takes a tenacious and intelligent politician.
If Turnbull gets dumped then tosses it in then he isn’t of the right stuff and was there for the wrong reasons. His aim should be from front or rear, to reform the party bit by bit and that takes time and dedication.
I don’t feel sorry for him. He was ready to run his plot against Rudd with the media to destroy him on the back of a lie.
I too do not see this as any kind of triumph.
If a major party goes into an election in 2010 on a denialist platform we will have a very very unpleasant election. There are well funded and very unsavoury forces at work
who do not seem to be respecters of science, openness, rationality, or doing what is best for humanity and the environment. If they get together with all the machinery of the liberal party, its bands of relatively simple volunteers, its one-eyed media elite and the paid guns of the advertising industry then I don’t see that the election
campaign is going to help spread better understanding amongst the public of the task ahead of us to tackle climate change.
With increasingly shrill and uncompromising voices on the far left as well, I think the
public is going to find this a very unpleasant thing to engage with.
My final say, courtesy the Bard
As I said earlier, Clive Palmer!
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/abbott-steps-out-of-the-shadows-20091126-juq6.html
BTW the UNLibs “Lord Haw Haw” at it again.
(youngest is still awake with toothache grrr)
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/revolution-the-new-spirit-of-the-libs-true-fightback/story-e6frfifo-1225804404652
The pieces start falling into place?
The Greens are taking the Australian voters for granted, they are so sure they are going to have the balance of power after the next election all based on current polls. There is going to be one hell of a scare campaign re the ETS. The Coalition will claw back as they did with the their 17% interest rates scare campaign, the Boat People and Terrorists.
Totally agreed, though I’ll bet the Libs will concentrate on the Senate to deny the Greens the BoP.
With the huge and long scare campaign of the personal loss to the voters, any additional seats won by the greens because of the Greens % of votes,would be at the expense of the ALP.
The Coalition have the backers and the time. We hear it every day now on Radio and in the Newspapers it will only get worse. The time to act is now.
Precisely, but try telling that to St Bob and his followers, and they have the gall to attack the ALP like they are in the Willagee By-election.
It would likely be a wasted effort. It is highly unlikely the Liberal Party will do as well or better than their 2004 Senate vote, which is what we should be comparing it to. This will mean the Libs will likely lose at least 1 or 2 senators. The Greens almost certainly will hold the sole balance of power after the next election and this is not a bad thing for the Government.
Many pages back someone said they are rooting for Malcolm. Here here, Go Malcolm, I have temporarily forgoton the party I support to take an extreme interest into the Libs and their outcome.
You are only paired if you are voting the other way. He’s voting the way Rudd would have.
Article by Alister Drysdale hits a few nails on the head. Full article worth a read
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Defiant-Turnbulls-last-stand-pd20091126-Y6GBA?OpenDocument&src=sph
Gus, completely agree. The biggest loser is Australia. These farqwits want to impose their brand of “democrazy” on Australia, these are:
1. Politics of bullying and intimidation
2. Politics of ignorance and denial
3. Politics of fear mongering and scaring
Like 1975, the impacts of this shenanigan will be felt beyond the Liberals and federal politics. It will impact on the nation on a whole. They cannot be allowed to succeed. That is why I said there must be an election over this for the Australian people to have a say.
And I am not just talking about DD for ETS, it has gone beyond that. It is almost a battle for the soul of the nation.
from the business spectator above:
It’s time Joe Hockey stands up and be counted.
Finns, re: the article from the business spectator, good arcticle except for one thing, Howard didn’t have any values and that is now showing.
Tom.
A deal is a deal is a deal:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/abbott-steps-out-of-the-shadows-20091126-juq6.html
Is Minchin a man or a mouse? Certainly not a dolphin.
Macca just said Radio RN that Australia will get its ETS via DD in its original form.
Laurie oakes this morning said Minchin says he did no deal to vote on the ETS today. Also was scathing on Turnbull, said if he doesn’t realise he’s gone he must be stupid. said libs he talked to this morning say the ETs is dead.
Howard goes silent on the ETS
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/industry-sectors/howard-goes-silent-on-the-ets/story-e6frg976-1225804361337
I seem to recall him taking a 10% ETS to the last election. Funny that…
Finns you will recall adam saying 18 mths ago ? that is the only way (DD) ETS would happen because the coalition would never vote for it.
Another interesting day coming up never the less.
What in the world did we do before the internet ?
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/i-wont-quit-leadership-says-turnbull-20091127-jv4m.html
Meanwhile in Ireland, the Roman Catholic church reveals its teaching on “mental reservation” (see http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/1126/breaking86.html?via=rel ) which gives politicians who are believers a whole new set of “outs”.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,26407552-29277,00.html
Vra, to me the two biggest vermins in the whole saga are: Minchin and Robb.
Vra = Amigo Vera
Roll on NewsPoll – whatever the result. Lets see what voters now think about AGW
Finns
I agree, Minchin is now lying saying there was no agreement with Evans and Albo to vote on the bill by 3.45pm today.
They have no honour, are scum of the earth.
It’s unfortunate that all this meltdown stuff has sidelined the media’s coverage of the Grech Affair.
This is a tragedy, and I’m serious about that, no joking!
You know, for the first time in my life, I feel very sorry for Turnball and the decent people in the Liberal Party!
Alas, the wingnuts are going to win, there’ll be no action on climate change before the next election, and the Mad Monk & his loony squad will take them further to the right and further into the wilderness!
The Greens have been shown up as the political opportunists and wreckers they always have been – shame on Bob Brown!
Turnball is gone, the Libs last hope to avoid annihilation is Sloppy Joe!
Hockey wouldn’t come anywhere near beating Rudd, but at least he isn’t a mad right wing zealot!
Minchin can add to his CV the title of “Liberal Party Wrecker”.
Not that he’d care, it will have been worth it to save Australia from the “left wing global conspiracy”.
Amazing…
I find myself not only rooting for Turnbull, but admiring him, even though he is on the “other side”.
He is Wenck, fighting to the last man and the last bullet, holding the corridor open to allow civilians and remnants of his army trapped in Berlin to escape to the West.
His pronouncements on who’s in charge, who’s giving orders, who runs the Party, are pure waffle. He is dissembling nonsensically, saying the first thing that comes into his head, going on as if the Party as a viable entity actually functions… anything to buy time for the CPRS. He is filibustering his own party, using their own “rules” against them, refusing to acknowledge commands he’d rather not carry out, asking for clarification.
He may be doing it all for his own ego (likely, as who would want to be a member of a Party that has Minchin as its soul?), just for the pleasure of winning. He may be doing it because he (almost alone in the Party) realises that it needs its Götterdämmerung to have any chance at rebirth. While the smarmy Minchin, the skinheaded Prussian, Abbott, and the perjurer Abetz drip snake oil on the ABC talking about what a “clear majority of the Australian people” want, pretending there is still governance in the Liberals, Turnbull realises the game is up and that if he is going to achieve anything from his leadership, he has only hours to do it.
When as much of the CPRS bill that can be passed is passed Turnbull will make his own escape. As I’ve said many times, he realises there is no future for him in the Liberals. They are an ungrateful bunch of troglodytic sods, beholden to the geriatric spruikers of talkback radio, mad “World Government” conspiracists and second rate “scientists” spouting bunk. Let them think what they want. Turnbull’s revenge is to try his best to give them all the finger by letting the CPRS through.
Incidentally, Wenmck did survive the war, and lived to the ripe old age of 82.
And I’ll say it again, “Where, oh where is Mesma?”
Don’t. Simple as that.
Just remember what turnbull tried to do to rudd with gretch. What goes around is coming around. Turnbull has painted himself into this corner and while he showed balls last night he is in this position largely because of his own deeply flawed *leadership*.
Brenda must be glad to be out of it. In a weird sort of way turnbull did him a huge favour.
Rather cute of howard “no comment”. How long before the libs turn on him too ?
The current ETS is very close to his policy.
Mesma is sitting on the fence until she knows for sure who the winner will be so she can suck up to them and keep her DL job
Mesma? I bet she’s ready to jump ship, Abbott will promise her she can remain Shadow Foreign Minister. Julie after all is running rings around Stephen Smith…..so her supporters think!
Except that Tony Smith will run on a joint ticket with the Mad Monk, so he’d be deputy in the new loony Liberal Party.
This morning both Andrew Elder’s “Smoking Ruins” [andrewelder.blogspot.com-Polirically Homeless] and The Piping Shrike’s “Is Turnbull a Politician?” {http://thepipingshrike..com..] have excellent commentaries on the political crisis.
am agenda on sky now
I feel the same. Weirdest feeling ever!
Glenn Milne thinks Tony Abbott will win the leadership by next Tuesday. He also says that this could split the Liberals for 10 years.
Turnbull just said on ABC Radio that the denial faction are going to move a motion to defer the final vote on the CPRS until Monday.
New PB record for a thread!
And I’m guessing there might be a few more today.
And a new record for popcorn sales!
Macca says the numbers haven’t changed, I sure hope he’s right!
Finns,
You beat me to posting Hartcher’s piece. I wish he’d talked the same way on “LL” last night with Shanahan there. It does seem to be the firm journos-groupthink deduction that Turnbull is a dead leader walking:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/abbott-steps-out-of-the-shadows-20091126-juq6.html
Diog,
I’ve been keenly anticipating for you to make the official call of the record. Kinda like watching the AFL Draft yesterday.
China has joined the USA in putting concrete emission reduction targets on the table for the first time:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/27/2754975.htm
If the anti-ETS loons in the Liberal Party think they will stop any deal at Copenhagen by derailing our ETS they are sadly mistaken. Whether it happens or not will not depend on us. It would have helped if we had an ETS, but if the USA and China do a deal, then it will go ahead and our stance will be irrelevant. We will then just be isolated from the world, and risking tariffs imposed on our exports.
Macca said he rang everyone last night and they haven’t changed their vote so he thinks Malcolm would win a spill.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26406339-911,00.html
So true.
Oh the irony if China and the U.S cut their emissions before we do!
Then we would be truly on our own LOL
Hewson putting the boot in on sky.
Abbott confirms will challenge for leadership Monday
Vera, you have to give the Chainsaw a lot of credit!
Kinda think there won’t be any place for him in the next administration, so a byelection in Groom?
Hewson just called for Hockey and Mesma to stand up and be counted and pox to Robb, Minchin and Abbott.
Hewson is cranky! He’s getting stuck into Joe and Julie saying where are they why aren’t they out there supporting their leader
Hewson asking where are mesma and sloppy ?
Why aren’t they standing up for their leader ?
Indeed !
Finns
me tood ya
The “Howard Faction” couldn’t give a _______ about Hewson, he was wiped from the Liberal Party long ago, he’s as much ignored as Fraser.
Evan
Chainsaw had his sleeves rolled up ready for action. I hope he punches a few wackaloons lights out!!
Finns: If I was in Bradfield, I’d vote for the pole dancer! She’s a damn sight better option than Paul Fletcher!
Vera, like i posted earlier this is more than just Turnbull Vs Abbott.
It’s Progressive Aust Vs Regressive Aust.. Who are you gonna call????
Men and Women of Australia ………………………… that’s who
Yes, McFarlane is one of those hard men, I’d back him to take out People Skills in a pub brawl!
Today at least nothing but the CPRS is scheduled for the Senate, beginning at 9.30. The adjournment is set for 3.45, so it’ll be interesting to see if they keep to that.
Evan, Ziggy already got my vote, somewhere over the rainbow ………………..
Morgan usually releases a poll on Fridays. This one will be worth watching, as it would have been conducted during the heat of the Liebral Party meltdown.
Would there be any sort of environmental policy from an Abbott administration?
His lot don’t believe climate change exists, so would they even bother appointing someone to shadow Garrett?
Goodness knows, that lot are so crazy that they’d probably appoint Dennis Jensen as the Shadow Minister.
What about the irony if Turnbull has a boost in approval in Newspoll and he is dumped the same day?
What other policies would Abbott promote?
A ban on abortion?
Reintroduction of the death penalty?
All unemployed and single parents stripped of welfare?
The teaching of creationism in schools?
Well the first thing that is going to happen is the denial faction will try to have the amended bill sent to a committee.
So we will see early on how many Senators are still supporting the Coalition position.
Saving the climate bill is still important, so I hope Hartcher is right.
After this the rump Federal Liberal Party will look awefully clsoe to the Nationals. Looks like we will have a Federal Pinneapple Party as well as a Qld one. I wonder what Macfarlane will do? I can’t see him joining Labor, but would he go independent? HE got a pretty good deal for farmers, so I would think he’s still popular in his electorate.
Labor people here genuinely don’t know what’s going to happen today. Some think the CPRS will pass, others think it will go down. A lot depends on the group of perhaps ten moderate Liberal Senators – are they willing to run the risks of voting for the guillotine and then for the bill itself?
vera @ 3638
That is not at all beyond the bounds of posibility. It would serve them right if MT got a significant boost from voters who might just have changed their minds about their voting intentions only to see the party regress way back to the questionable attitudes of times long past.
Diogones:
I hope good old Crikey’s servers don’t go into meltdown along with the Liberal Party.
Macfarlane is the only one with guts and decency to come out and support Turnbull. He kept saying on Sky that he would do what was best for the people in his electorate as he always did.
I can forsee McFarlane becoming an Independent. He’d have a big personal vote in Groom, and you can bet that Rudd would pour a lot of money into that seat, like he’s doing with Lyne(Oakeshott’s seat).
As for Turnball, he’d really have no other option but to leave politics immediately, I can’t see how he could remain in a party dominated by people who don’t want to take any action to alleviate climate change. I’d dearly love Turnball to defect to the ALP, the ultimate way to piss off Abbott & his lot, but the chances of that happening are zero. So a byelection in Wentworth early next year would be my guess!
And let’s enjoy the spectacle of Abbott campaigning in an inner Sydney seat on a platform of climate change denial! Can’t wait!
BK
On Tony Delroy talkback the night before last, after Turnbull won 48/35 just about every caller was praising him and they were mostly Liberal voters.
vera
I think the Liberal rebels have succumbed to the parable of the squeaky wheel.
Obviously the Liberal Party brand will be totally toxic this weekend while Newspoll data is being collected. But there might be some rallying to Turnbull personally in recognition of his stand on climate change. So the overall effect might be no change in the polls.
It will also be interesting to see if the Greens get any recognition for their decision to line up with the Nationals and Fielding in opposing the CPRS outright.
Troeth and Georgiou stuck around through all the worst of the Howard years. I doubt Turnbull will let the Lib Right get him down – he’ll simply go off to lick his wounds for a while, stay out of the limelight.
He won’t give the Lib Right the satisfaction of running him out of parliament. It’ll be up to the people the Wentworth to do that.
Just for starters,
Stop funding stem cell research.
Divert an even higher percentage of education spending from public to private schools, VET companies and private Uni’s.
Establish and build Australia’s own version of USA’s Notre Dame University (one of wealthiest, most expensive in America).
Personally I’ve always thought Turnbull was talented, if greatly flawed. You simply don’t get to where he is in life, with some sort of ability…
However, I think for most of his career, his success comes from situations where it isn’t important what others think, just being “right” is good enough. Like in law, your argument being popular etc doesn’t matter as you can show that according the complex rules of the law that you’re correct, you win. He’s actually a bit like (what the media says) Rudd is; a guy isn’t popular within the party but overcomes that, with everyone disciplined to follow him by being “right”. Unfortunately it doens’t work from opposition…
Abbot I always thought as represents an actual true believer, which is slightly crazy
. Howard wasn’t a true believer is his own actions, he just played with them to achieve certain ends. But Abbot, he’s the sort of I a reckon really believes right wing ideological purity is the best in the long run, and even annihiation in the election is but a small setback etc..
Then again, I’m always viewed by politicians as Shakespearean, larger than life character, such with “the narrative”.
How could Abbott with a mind poisoned by Catholic dogma garner enough support accross the electorate as a whole to win an election?
Herr Doktor, i dont see any hope of the CPRS being passed today, tomorrow or next week. Abbott & Co are hell bent to ensure Rudd will not get his CPRS before Hopinghagen.
He can’t! And that’s the beauty of this.
It is as if the denier faction thinks that they are actually the Australian mainstream, they don’t realise they are just wingnuts that represent a small minority of voters.
Remember the shit awful performance Abbott put up against Nicola Roxon during the last election campaign?
And his ardent supporters think the Mad Monk can take on Rudd?
Oh dear!
Showson: Alan Jones always tells us he represents “real Australia”, so who am I to argue? The shockjocks know better!
Does anyone see the irony in Turnbull fighting this fight between Climate Deniers and anti-pre-Copenhagen-CPRS forces in his own party?
It’s a bit like the Monarchists joining forces with the Direct-Election Republicans against him.
Essentially: anyone but Turnbull.
Don’t worry Adam. You’ll get your Green BOP after the next election regardless
As a Greens supporter, I hope that when Kevin goes to Copenhagen he will talk to other leaders, get some sense in his head, take a 25% minimum ETS to the Australian public over an election to ‘get a mandate’, then pass a solid package.
Listening to “Talking Liberal” 3AW this morning and one clown suggested that if Hockey becomes leader the Libs could still win the next election. This clown was also railing against the ETS. Mitchell pointed out that Hockey agrees with the ETS. Oops.
Theme song for the day:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dB9mBa9bka8
It must mean you are unreal! You only think you exist!
Wonder if Abbott and Minchin have seen this?
57% want action on CC now compared to 26% who dont believe there’s a problem
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2009/4440/
“Alan Jones always tells us he represents “real Australia””
“Real Australia” in this case being ‘limp-wristed, public-toilet-haunting mincers’. They are an important yet oft-overlooked demographic. Ignore them at your peril.
No sympathy for Tunbull here.
I am surprised people feel that much for him. Seems you have forgotten about Grechgate. I also recall pretty much everyone here claiming he was gone because of that affair. He made a lot of dumb blunders, and the adjustments to the CPRS were duds.
Best thing is we get a Green BOP (or even a simple Labor majority – miracles do occassionlly happen!) and we get some proper legislation late next year.
In the Liberals’ meltdown, I feel sorriest for Ian McFarlaine – who, in good faith, negotiated his party a good deal for one of its core constituencies and the respect of the Minister whose policies and decisions so profoundly affect that constituency – the NFF (which supports both “green” farming and CC policy initiatives) and the growing band of “green” farmers doing their best to restore their patches of Earth and improve their precarious self-sufficiency through “green” power generation and carbon-offset credits.
Like most concerns of rural Oz, the effects of the behaviour of NeoDLP urbanites who want to run the Liberal Party on its rural constituencies – especially of further delays in approval and funding for carbon-offset projects (as in my earlier posts), and on Senate 1st & 2nd preferences – seem to have been completely ignored. Did anyone see/hear Ian McF’s views canvassed yesterday?
Despite rural electorates’ drift to Liberals and Independents, most urbanites seem to regard the farm sector as National Party heartland; but Nats lean more to mining – Palmer’s role won’t diminish that – and keeping redneck, Hansonite & USA-style religious & political types’ 1st & 2nd preference votes.
“Green” farmers’ preferences “that count” ought to have drifted to the Greens. Any “green” party that’s actually concerned with planetary restoration and carbon off-setting rather than anti-industrialisation/ anti-development ought to regard “green farmers” as probably their most significant constituency. Australia’s Green Party does not. There’s a widespread impression in rural Australia (including/ especially among “green” farmers) that The Greens hate all farmers, hate dams, hate irrigation and are only interested in shutting down the coal industry. After their current stand on the government’s bill, the ALP is more likely to get their preferences.
I haven’t been out around local shopping centres, markets etc since this crisis blew up; but I’d guess the relaxed, comfortable and happy with with McFarlaine’s deal around earlier in the week will have evaporated.
i am surprised that Fielding has not called a presser to announce that he was a love child
Astrobleme: the Greens get no gold stars from me, I’m so angry with Brown & his troops that I’ll ensure they get no 2nd preferences from me next time!
How can any Green supporter stomach the thought of your senators lining up with the right wing loons and the sceptics to vote down the ETS?
Wong starts her first contribution of the day by pointing out how much time has been wasted.
This is a sure fire sign that the government will try to guillotine debate.
Lenore Taylor with the ETS Liberal Party votes.
This reflects the 48 – 35 vote for or against a spill (taking into account the shadow cabinet)
They lost the vote, but they still won’t accept it.
What a petulant display from a bunch of spoiled brats, who are so used to getting their own way.
They felt, and still feel, the same way about the 2007 election.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/malcolm-turnbull-not-a-quitter/story-e6frg6zo-1225804370763
If you read Turnbull’s book on the failed Republic referendum campaign, you’ll find that’s it was an eerily similar “narrative arc” to what might very well happen again today. Turnbull’s compromise “minimalist” model was defeated by the far right Monarchists in combination with those Republicans who wanted a more “democratic” model.
Turnbull was ropeable about the Referendum loss, in particular about the duplicitous behaviour of people in his own circle who he’d thought were straight-shooters.
The 2007 election was all a bad dream, we’ll wake up one day, and the Rodent will still be PM!
OzPol Tragic
The Greens don’t “hate” those things, but certainly we think dams are bit… 19th Century. There are far more efficient ways of storing water. The irrigation schemes around the Murray are also hopelessly dated – they still use aerial sprinklers in a lot of cases.
I am surprised you think they hate “all farmers”. Can you name the last Green Senator who was a farmer? One hint, she is Western Australian
I don’t know why Wong thinks it’s a reasonable argument that Minchin and his type won’t change their minds after Copenhagen no matter what, therefore why wait. The reason for delaying would be the possbility that some Senators would change their minds the other way if Copenhagen comes to nothing.
P.S. I’m not supporting a delay. I’m just pointing out that Wong’s argument makes no sense.
I don’t see how it is possible for the dnier faction to send the bills off to another committee.
Labor will oppose it, that’s 32, the Greens will oppose it, that’s 5, Xenophon will oppose it, that’s 38.
Guillotining the bill to a vote will require either seven Liberals, or the Greens plus two Liberals.
Xenophon says it’s urgent to take action, yet he intends opposing the bill.
Evan14
The Govt could have worked with the Greens, they chose not to. Remember the Greens have been banging on about this for years. Why should they support a policy that does basically nothing? It makes no sense.
If this CPRS doesn’t pass, we’ll get a better one next year.
See what good guys do:
Dick Smith and St Bob save the day
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,26407633-29277,00.html
While the left have somewhere else to turn, Labor will never win a Senate majority in their own right.
Psephos
“Xenophon says it’s urgent to take action, yet he intends opposing the bill.”
Yes, this is correct, the current CPRS can’t be considered to “take action”. I think most here already know that. That’s why you all keep saying that this is just a small step and the real deal will happen later… Why would Mr X and the Greens support a poor policy now (as a small step to a better one later), when they know they can just create a better one next year?
I hope if there’s a DD that Labor has anti Green adds with photos of Nats and Greens side by side voting down the ETS. Also hope they put the Greens last on their Senate how to votes
Maybe because he doesn’t consider passing the amended ETS as taking action?
The Greens threw the baby out with the bathwater!
And this “Let’s wait until after Copenhagen” line the sceptic Liberals are pushing is just an excuse to do bugger all and a blatant delaying tactic.
If the Liberals are really serious about the Copenhagen conference, will any of them join Rudd in the delegation? I think not!
I have to go.
But just in case you missed the point, here it is:
BETTER ONE NEXT YEAR!!!!
It really does show how desperate the rusted Laborites are when they insist that voting against the amended Rudd ETS means they don’t want action on climate change. Words of a desperate fool.
The Greens are wreckers. It’s always been ALL OR NOTHING with them. They will not get my preference nor my wife’s at the next election. Tossers.
Howard is silent on the ETS because he never intended to have an ETS. It was always a non core promise and the GFC would have been his perfect excuse for saying NO.
Oh darn, my grammar was totally gone in that sentence. “I’ve always viewed my politicians as Shakespearean, larger than life characters, each (following) the narrative”.
But unlike Turnbull’s past battles, he might just succeed here. It’s increasingly looking a bit… technical. It’s just one bill, it’s no longer about getting appealing to large swathes of people, but having just enough to get it passed. There’s also the timing; the Govt wants it passed, and hopefully will assist Turnbull in getting it through before his forces are overrun.
Bushfire Bill’s reference to Wenck is looking rather apt.
Now the denier Liberals are really throwing in red herrings. They want to know if polluters will have to receive financial compensation if the entire CPRS is repealed by a future parliament.
Bob: not a good look for the Greens when they’re lining up with Barnaby Joyce and Nick Minchin, very strange bedfellows!
Good for you. Meanwhile the Green vote has held up all through the CPRS debate. That’s because those who actually voted Green at the last election see no reason to move back to Labor over an ineffectual ETS.
Sorry to break your fragile soul, but thems the breaks
That’s why the Greens should do the right thing and abstain.
It’s quite regular that the opposition and crossbench oppose the government in the Senate for their own differing reasons. Your faux dramatism scores no points.
Bob, your lot won’t be getting my preferences again!
Perhaps you better go off and do a deal with your new mates in the National Party!
An ETS is like a GST. Now that the GST is bedded in it almost never features in conversation. The sooner we get an ETS scheme in place, any ETS scheme the sooner we will get used to the idea and teh scare mongering will fall on deaf ears. What the Greens have done is delayed this ETS but also delayed their preferred ETS if it ever comes about anyway. The stupidity of their actions is astonishing.
Chris Toolman:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/27/2755182.htm
What would have been electorally silly is the Greens rolling over and voting with the government, in the process making themselves completely and utterly irrelevant to the CPRS debate, rather than standing up to Labor and their ineffectual ETS.
Oh noes!!!
The Greens are the party of environmentalists and there is as much related to the environment in the CPRS as the GST package. Of course the Greens should vote it down.
The Greens won’t follow the path of the Democrats and vote for something that’s anathema to their message.
The government couldn’t work with the greens on this because the greens refused to negotiate. The government had to cave in to the greens demands or they wouldn’t support the ETS. Kev & Co. were forced to deal with the liberals and if anyone it’s the greens who put us in this rediculous position.
Hmm looks like Bob brown will be struggling to get Labor preferences next time.
But it’s his Frontier way or nothing. Psephos, what is Labor’s reaction to his Frontier plan?
Not that it matters living in blue ribbon Liberal land, but I’ll at least stop an extra Green Senator getting elected in NSW.
It’s time Brown left politics, but the scary thought is that Milne would replace him!
If Milne takes over they’ll be lucky to get 2% LOL
Turnbull admitted on AM yesterday or the day before that it is “friendless” – even industry don’t want it.
Are you that dumb that you think the Greens will preference the coalition ahead of Labor at the next election?
You’ve got rocks in your head.
PS Wow is this blog ever in meltdown! Three pages since I started my last post & it’s SOOO out of date.
McF (Mr NFF) won’t throw in the towel, nor will the NFF.
Gilbert says Abbott and Dutton ticket
Dutton without a seat LOL
Tim, the government caved into the Libs demands wholesale. If the Greens had the votes, who’d say they wouldn’t cave in to the Greens wholesale?
The political reality is that the Greens – the party of the environment – has been sidelined in the most important environmental debate of our time. The Greens can stamp their feet and hold their breath until their faces turn blue but they could never really have any impact on the CPRS.
Astrobleme #3679
You sound a bit like the direct election spoilers from the republic referendum. They voted No to the republic on offer because they thought they would get a “better” one the next year…
How long ago was that?
So it is Abbott / Smith versus Hockey / Dutton.
If Dutton becomes deputy can he choose his own seat as well as his own portfolio?
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/joe-hockey-being-lined-up-to-lead-liberals/story-e6frgczf-1225804481254
To add to this: after the government caved into the Libs wholesale, the wingnut right of the party denied them anyway! If the government caved into the Greens demands, they can trust that the Greens will deliver the votes.
The Liberals have been shown to be the most petulant senate opposition this country has ever seen.
That sums up the Greens position very nicely – it’s not to do with getting a scheme in place it’s to do with the perception that they were the deal makers. They are after Brownie points (yes, I meant that) at the expense of the issue itself.
Thanks for the concise statement of fact.
But Hockey is even more to the left than Turnball, the wingnuts will never accept him.
And surely they’d need to find Dutton a safer seat?
If they have facilitated paying a ransom to a gang of criminals, they should be charged with abetting a crime. They will also be responsible for what happens to the next Australian who is abducted by criminals.
E.G. Whitlam would argue that the one in 1975 holds that ‘honour’.
Dutton vs Tony Smith for deputy leader? OMG What a choice!
Reflecting on the behaviour of Boswell and Wong yesterday, one represents the future, the other the past.
What they have in common is that both represent excellent arguments for Australia’s migration policies.
I don’t mind Smith, he is acceptably boring as if he was meant to be a Senator but got bundled into a House seat.
Will be interesting to see what happens in the next few years when the Greens continue to argue for a more effectual CPRS, while temperatures and climates continue to become more unpredictable…
I think the Liberals should go with a Tuckey/Jensen ticket! Sure it’d be loony, but enetertaining too!
deconst @ 3711: The greens sidelined themselves in the biggest environmental debate ever.
See post @ 3722
Smith is just a mini-Costello! I guess he’d be shadow treasurer in an Abbott administration, and wouldn’t you love to see Swan make mincemenat out of him!
Typo: Mincemeat!
Tim, I think you’re putting the chicken before the egg. There was *never* any chance the government would bother to talk with the Greens because the Greens *can’t* deliver the numbers to pass legislation.
If the Libs voted against the ETS, why can’t the Greens? The Greens aren’t the ALP cheer squad after all.
If this doesn’t get through today then the argument will still be whether or not we should have an ETS, let alone whether the targets should be higher.
And we all know Labor didn’t want to go through the crossbench, as shown since the 80s. Labor would much rather force the Libs to vote for or against it and see them self-destruct in the process.
This isn’t about the environment, this is about politics, pure and simple.
Because the Greens are neant to believe in an ETS that’s why.
It would be nice though for them to give Labor their preferences.
Are the majority of Green supporters high school drop outs? Reading their illogical posts here would suggest they are.
Wong calls out denier Liberal Ryan for filibustering.
Copenhagen will see stronger targets than what Kevin was proposing in the ETS. It’s a better thing for this ETS not to be passed before Copenhagen. If he had stronger targets, it would be a bad thing if it weren’t passed before Copenhagen.
There is no ‘let’s pass it now, we’ll beef it up later’. The coal companies would rub their hands in glee at sicking their lawyers onto the government for moving the goalposts halfway through.
Um, what’s wrong with that? The ‘battle’ between Labor and Liberal is the main game in Australian politics, everything else is secondary.
The Greens might just leave preferences open. In fact, Brown might feel that he can’t in good conscience preference Labor given the Greens’ view of Labor’s ETS.
Well why is Xenophon so boringly banging on about it and wasting time. He’s driving me mad.
You just prove the point that politics is more important than the Earth. Thanks for that
It DOES contain provisions for stronger targets. If there is a new legally binding treaty that Australia ratifies, the Australian target can go as high as 25% without amending the CPRS legislation.
Steve K – the Greens are meant to believe in real climate action and the ETS is a political game, pure and simple. The ETS has practically nothing to do with the environment
Once again, full credit to that old sidewinder, Bob Brown. He’s refusal to negotiate with Labor on ETS precipitated the public unravelling of a party that only a mere 4 years ago was passing their bills through the Senate like that Chamber had taken a legislative laxative.
Thanks for proving you are a complete idiot who has no idea what is happening.
The absolute worst thing that could happen for THE EARTH is a new Coalition government being elected, especially one that is still full of MPs and Senators that the last few days have proved are climate change deniers.
He’s=His
Sounds like the deniers. Refusing to take the big step until others do. And so we’re in that stalemate position.
Ho hum.
I don’t reckon the Greens sidelined themselves. The fact is they were sidelined by the circumstances of the senate numbers. Once Fielding made it known where he stood, Labor had no alternative other than negotiate with the Libs. If the Greens had the BOP, it would be interesting what sort of sheme we would have had – the Libs would have been forced to come to the table and would have been more moderate, the Greens probably would have also moderated their position. While ever they were sidelined, they could take the moral high ground and not piss off their hard core green constituents while still apeal to those disaffected by Labor’s purported ‘sellout’.
For the record, I prefer the Green’s scheme but Labor’s low target of 5% (which, as I keep saying, I hope we never get as a real target because it means the globe hasn’t agreed on meaningful targets and we’re probably f#@ked.
Samantha Maiden:
http://twitter.com/samanthamaiden
Thanks for completely shifting the goalposts. Labor doesn’t want to negotiate with the crossbench, they want the coalition to pass it and make them suffer their own decisions. You admitted Labor is putting party politics before the environment. You shot your own foot.
Enjoy
Yes, without the CPRS passed through the Senate we are in a stalemate position, I completely agree.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/joe-hockey-being-lined-up-to-lead-liberals/story-e6frgczf-1225804481254
Apart from Macca’s voice he should be their leader. I think he’s learnt a lot from Penny Wong about CC that he probably didn’t believe before.
Twisting words, another sign that you completely shot yourself in the foot and ended up looking the complete fool. Nice one
Only a complete moron would think I suggested such a thing.
Hockey and Dutton would be a tinderbox combination. More division!
Showson: I was browsing the News Ltd blogs earlier, and much to my surprise, they weren’t full of the usual 100% anti ETS stuff, or maybe it’s just that the Young Libs haven’t got out of bed yet!
Dutton wont be in parliament after the next election so that will solve that relationship.
I think Hockey will only get up if he caves in and promises to delay the ETS until next year, otherwise the majority of them will support the Mad Monk.
That’s what I’m worried about.
Evan, the Young Liberals have probably asked Mummy and Daddy for a couple of hundred bucks so they can drown their sorrows.
ShowsOn: Hockey is only on a 5% margin in North Sydney! Of course he won’t lose it, but you’d call it a marginal seat.
Surely they’d have to get Dutton out of Dickson, prevail upon someone to quit their safe QLD seat?
Hockey seems like a weakling to me so no surprise to see him do what he’s told
If the Senate keeps waffling on as it is at present, then without a guillotine, the legislation won’t pass before this time next year! Minister Wong must have the patience of a saint. I’d have blown up long ago and told them to stop wasting time. She did make a very good dig at some Liberal Senator on that point but now X is on his feet asking the same question yet again. Milne, Xenophon and the Lib are obviously looking for this simple point to go to luchtime at least (God, now Fielding is on his feet spouting the same crap)
So, the deal is:
We, the trogs, will regain power, even though we are in a minority; you can pretend to be in power, that is to say, be our caring and sharing front to the public.
Plus ca change. Wonder whether Hockey will fall for it?
A key point in the “OZ” article cited above:
But Hockey will need to be prepared to accept the party rooms opposition to the Rudd government ETS. He can then go about planning for an alternative scheme that conservatives can stomach – good luck with that.
Everyone spare a thought for the Cleark of the Senate, Harry Evans. It is his last day in that office after 21 years.
and… where is Mesma?
Hemingway – Turnbull is having exactly the same problem as then because of his personality. He didn’t have any ‘uniting’ powers.
I would have thought Hockey is a weak option. He is likely to flip flop trying to keep everyone in the party happy. The right will think they can control him and poor old Joe is just bluster anyway.
He will appear like a more jovial looking Nelson.
The “wait until after Copenhagen” is just the denier faction’s current position. After Copenhagen it will turn into “wait until after U.S, India and China reduce their emissions”.
Counting her numbers. So far she has Jensen and Tuckey.
ShowsOn, you can’t dig a hole out of this one. But I bet you’ll keep on digging. I quote:
Me:
You:
Gonna keep diggin that hole?
Here’s the “OZ” article link again. Interesting Polly Sci-Fi by Dr. van Onselen:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/joe-hockey-being-lined-up-to-lead-liberals/story-e6frgczf-122580448125
I have always thought Xenophon was there for his own self esteem and only interested in making himself look important.
Labor and the unions would unleash a huge WorkChoices scare campaign against Mr WorkChoices Hockey.
Alan Jones stands for real Australia? You mean the race rioting mob?
You really are a wackaloon. When your beloved Greens are the main opposition party you will have a point, until then you are just a making up constant stream of crap.
You’re the Senator Fielding of Pollbludger.
Gawd, I hope for her sake the numbers don’t go higher than 10.
Sorry the above post was obviously directed at Bob
As if. She is completely irrelevant now.
ShowsOn
wRONg! *grins broadly*
I didn’t say a thing about Mesma ShowsOn.
But i’ll repeat what I did say
You can’t dig a hole out of this one. But I bet you’ll keep on digging. I quote:
Me:
You:
Gonna keep diggin that hole?
Showson
Ignore the troll. most of us do
I dont know how is our Penn like in private, but her patience and control she so far displayed is a true reflection of her grandmother Hakka upbringing. I wish, sometimes, she would lost her patience and just tell these farqwits to farq off.
Sorry, I forgot if he was the regular troll or the lying troll.
Ahh, that old chestnut, the one that’s trotted out when someone has their back against the wall. Why not just raise a white flag?
The same.
Hockey would never live down the “Sloppy Joe” tag!
Can’t see him getting up, the far right know Joe is as big a climate change conviction politician as Turnball!
The best thing for anybody wanting to be leader is to get the job after the ETS has been passed. Abbott would be the more stable option even if less electorally palatable than Hockey. However Hockey will end end up looking like a weak wind bag and go down anyway. Willing to be shown wrong, Joe.
Finns
I had some personal contact with Penny in an official sphere, but in a small official sphere. She was as sharp as a tack and very, very human. I was impressed then and am even more impressed now.
Bob: you make me long for the days when “Lose The Election Please” was on this board!
And the likes of Tuckey and Jensen would be sitting on the backbench, white anting Hockey!
Seems to me I recall something similar to this scenario last election……. I think the name of the seat was Bennelong.
I just dont get the Greens’ mentality of no ETS is better than Rudd’s ETS. Surely it’s better to have an ETS, albeit with an overly low target, in place to prove that the sky wont fall in with an ETS in place and that the system can work and then boost the targets later. Once people stop doing their chicken little impressions over this, then with more people on side then more ambitious targets can be set.
Now denier Liberal Barnett starts to filibusterer.
I don’t think it will work like that. Once we have the ETS I think we’ll be stuck with it for a long time. Labor won’t admit they were wrong and the coalition don’t like it alltogether.
Talking about troll. At least this one can really sing and a classic too:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pyfq-qMOuZk
whereas the other one can only mumble incoherently.
Joe will be the sacrificial lamb to get the ETS off the table for the Libs. Abbott will be the leader to galvanise the Lib base and keep the Lib core safe at the next election. Turnbull will be back after the election provided he keeps his seat.
Woah, I don’t know. It would be as if Howard was leader, but in opposition.
People like Brandis would no longer shut up and just get rolled given that the Conservatives weren’t willing to stand by and let Turnbull get his policy through, so people like Brandis would feel no need to be loyal to Abbott.
Which goes back to Turnbull talent and successes have all come from situations where uniting powers aren’t needed. His victories are always in spite of people, and you can’t do that in politics..
I’m holding out that the ETS will pass. This is now more a specific… technical action, involving arcane senate procedures, timing, and finding “just” enough supporters/abstainers, to pass rather than cultivating general acceptance. This is the micro, like clinching a one off investment deal, not some long term company investment, which being the OL would be. As referred, Turnbull has ability in these, short quick, what people think doesn’t matter situations. Turnbull doesn’t need broad uniting powers to see this through….
Penn, just tell them to farqoff
TP – some of my SA mates say that’s how he was in Parliament there. He saw the writing on the wall and stood for Senate instead. He’s still full of himself but not as bad as Fielding.
I’m still sticking with my prediction for the next election: Labor to win more than 100 seats!
Samantha Maiden:
But Labor wouldn’t need to admit they were wrong. They would have been justifed for introducing an ETS but would be seeing the need for higher targets.
I think that when Turnbull goes he will stay gone. He will have learned by now that: a) he (anybody for that matter) cannot herd cats; and b) he will never be PM. Granted, he’s got an enormously inflated sense of his own capability, but I believe will ultimately be honest with himself.
That’s our Mesma!
The writing on the wall being that he was easily elected to the Senate, and in some safe Labor booths outpolled the Liberals.
Tim, the Greens position on the ETS is very clear. I recommend you read Christine Milne’s second reading speech on CPRS: http://greensmps.org.au/content/tv/christine-milnes-2nd-reading-speech-cprs
Also: “The Greens today released legal advice from barristers Brian Walters SC (Melbourne) and Matthew Baird (Sydney) confirming that any attempt to strengthen pollution reduction targets after the emissions trading scheme (ETS) legislation is passed could trigger a constitutional requirement for more multi-billion dollar compensation to be paid.” http://greens.org.au/node/5221
Here’s a crazy thought I had: Turnball leaves, Hockey becomes leader, they install Dutton in Wentworth! Would the Dutton family want to move to Vaucluse?
Why on earth should The Greens line up with Labor on this issue? I have not heard one logical reason.
Lets face it – the Greens stand to lose support if the public feel that Labor is taking adequate action on Climate Change. The ETS is certainly not anywhere near adequate. I’m not sure it should even be thought of as even loosely related to ‘taking action on climate change’.
Look – it’s fantastic that the Libs are imploding. I enjoy that as much as the average Labor supporter. However, I’m sure most of you, when the Labor blinkers are off, can realise that it’s better for the Greens to remain opposed to this so they can continue to legitimately criticize the ETS without owning any part of it.
So don’t expect us to line up and become Labor yes-men on a core issue for Green voters.
Atta boy – maybe he can actually sack one of his front benchers before they all resign – Mesma would be a good start.
Xenophon is just a show pony, very full of his own self-importance! However there is at least a brain in there, unlike Fielding(who’s bereft of one).
Mesma hasn’t exactly covered herself in glory with this fiasco. She would have to be the lightest light-weight ever to be deputy leader of a major party.
Now Senator Mcdonald comes in to filibuster.
Milne going on and on and on about “targets” yet again – she said she would be brief and has now spent a total of around 30 mins in total saying the same thing. Gosh the question is now being put! Oh, sorry – no it’s not! Farce!
You’d assume Mesma has been promised a plum front bench position by the Abbott camp.
Labor rusteds expect the Greens do do a Meg Lees/GST. Who do they think they’re kidding? At least they can admit however that they are putting politics before the environment by forcing the legislation through the coalition and making them vote on it and killing themselves off.
And I thought Laborites took the environment seriously. FOR SHAME!!!
I’d go further and say she is the most over rated front bencher on either side of the parliament.
The question is when Turnbull is ousted from the leadership, will he still want to contribute his money to the Liberal party when they’ve basically told him to f-off?
Mesma has just chosen her couch.
Evan14 – “install Dutton at Wentworth”? How would the good voters of Sydney’s eastern suburbs respond to this carpetbagger? If you can’t foist this shmuck onto the card-carrying LNP members of the Gold Coast, what chance does he have in Wentworth?
Hockey would be I gather too malleable and seem weak and will end up a Nelson. Abbott is not palatable but if he cant keep the party under better self control then nobody can.
If none of those two options have a chance of working then the Libs have no chance at all of looking like a real party.
I see no reason why. My guess is if he is knocked off he will just quit parliament. Labor would be a chance of winning Wentworth if Abbott is leader.
Mesma is sh*t-scared she’ll be dumped too.
I wonder how on earth she ever got Liberal preselection? But then again I’d say the same about Sophie Mirabella.
In a weird way the leadership is a secondary issue. First they need to resolve what their policy on an ETS will be, THEN they need to figure out who is the best leader to sell that message.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26404448-5006301,00.html
Looks like Hockey is going to renege on the ETS deal, and leave Turnbull twisting in the wind. What a low act. Still, I shouldn’t be surprised.
Oh, the link:
http://www.smh.com.au/national/hockey-makes-his-move-on-turnbull-20091127-jvgp.html
If Turnbull is the real narc. he will keeping on trying to crash through until he crashes… he will fight to win this latest argument even if it kills him one would think.
People admire his latest efforts, and they have been very praiseworthy. However I see him more like the mad dog at the gate. We will praise him for biting the bad guys that try to get through, but he will bite everyone else as well.
Smantha Maiden. Reports Turnbull’s response to Bishop’s request that he resign:
Twitter version:
The Australian Online version:
Hockey is being very quiet today…first time for everything I guess.
Hockey’s tweet:
Another weakling.
Hockey’s too busy tweeting. The poor fellow can’t tweet and talk at the same time.
The Oz is reporting that Julie Bishop has broken cover to insist that Turnbull stands down in favour of Joe Hockey
has anyone asked Bishop where the hell she’s been for the last three days?
she was conspicuously absent from every frame of television yesterday. I guess she was just waiting for the dust to settle before she decided whose coat tails she was going to cling to.
It also says a lot about the people of her electorate who keep voting her in.
Astrobleme #3675
There’s a difference between reality, and impressions & attitudes – in politics, the last two are stronger element of voter choice. People judge politicians by what they see & hear: increasingly, since the last election, what they hear and see is, as a few locals at the pub (lunch) expressed it, is “Such a mob of girls!” – that’s ‘girls’ as Bushies use the term; ie as the current equivalent of the 80s’ “fwuffy ducks” – and “metros”, ie metrosexuals dead keen on wresting the “skim-decaf latte sipper” title from the ALP left.
I didn’t think anything could shift my Senate support for what purports to be the party representing those whose credentials start with Lake Peddar & “The Rocks”. After a year of alienating harangues, whining, hissy-fits and dummy spits, Christine Milne finally managed to achieve it by (with the maximum bitchy girly arrogance) slamming the door shut on agreeing to any softening of the Greens’ policy, but finally conceding that “her door was always open” if Rudd wanted to crawl. To a PM enjoying stellar ratings during the longest electoral honeymoon! And, weeks later, nothing’s changed Greens’ behaviour.
The fine art of politics is the art of perception.
No wonder Bob B looks as if he’s mortally ill!
Hockey would look like a complete hypocrite, because we know his real views on the ETS. But he wouldn’t be the first to sacrifice his convictions when the carrot of power is dangled in his face!
ABC News has announced that Turnbull has said ‘Bring it on’. Abbott has gone into public criticism of Turnbull mode.
Minchin is said to have denied that there was an agreement to bring the CPBRs to a vote by today.
It will be very difficult for moderate senators to cross the floor when they don’t know who their leader is, and how it will affect the division of the spoils.
Gawd, Mesma’s a strange bird. Protecting her own nest again She deserves to have it shat in!!
We were all wondering when Turnbull would really crash – the sad thing is, this crash is on a position a lot of us actually agree with (and probably the majority of voters). The Right of the party have no bloody idea …
The W.A. Liberal Senators have all got together as a group to move amendments to provide more compensation for W.A. electricity generators and LNG producers.
Bring on another QT! I want to see Julia tear into Mesma! That was a total mismatch from the start!
Do they really care anymore? They would be furious that the leader’s position and THEIR position has been completely ignored.
I would be handing out ALP HTVs if it came to that!
http://www.smh.com.au/national/hockey-makes-his-move-on-turnbull-20091127-jvgp.html
Psephos may know the answer to this…..I wonder who among the Liberal Senators will vote for the Turnbull/Rudd bill today. I suppose that Brandis (Qld) and Johnston (WA) can be counted on. Maybe Ronaldson (Vic?). Who else?
That it just pathetic.
Showson @ 3831: Lucky b@stard. I’ve wanted to tell her where to go for ages!
Bob Brown has contributed very largely to this mess!
don’t forget it was the WA Liberal senators that started the spill, and it was the WA clique that got Turnbull over the line, and Bishop is their Ringleader, although she will never admit it. It is the only explanation for why someone so devoid of talent got the Deputy job.
So if Labor and the Greens were to vote for the ETS, would it pass?
No. Stupid CLLRism causing yet more ignorance.
It’s time to stop playing nice guys. The Govt and Turnbull supporters in the Senate should stop the rubbish at 3:45pm today regardless.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/ets-deal-must-be-voted-on-by-345pm-alp-20091127-jv7s.html
And based on people like Rudd and responses from people like ShowsOn, they’d rather the ETS legislation cripple the coalition opposition, than try and pass it through the crossbench. Politics appears to come before good policy lately.
If three Liberals abstain, yes.
Hockey is pathetic. If he grabs the leadership, that tweet is going to be grist to the QT mill next year…
Libs setting themselves up to keep cutting themselves open for years. Surely they are going to have to take a policy on this issue to the next election? And the one after that? Do they think the issue is just going to go away if they reject or delay the Bill? Waiting for Copenhagen is just a smokescreen and a recipe for future pain.
Bronwyn Bishop gave the game away – “But we are the party of low taxes”. It’s not about scepticism/denial or waiting and seeing, or big business worries (see John Roskam in the Fin today) and it’s certainly not anymore about the farmers. They just don’t like it and they are chucking their toys.
Seriously, if that’s the best they can do, the Libs should take a position to reject the bill and go to a DD on the issue (if Rudd calls it). They can then get smashed and rebuild over 2 or 3 cycles, maybe focussing on other issues…
I note the prominence of MPs formerly identified as Costello supporters among the resignations… We know Costello hates Turnbull, but do his former supporters hate him as well?
So it still requires coalition MPs to break ranks.
Next please!
Combet seems to be suggesting that their finger is on the trigger,
and all the Libs can seem to do is to wrap their lips round the end of the barrell
You see… this is why we don’t vote Liberal.
Socrates @3554
Fielding will be ‘less relevant’ spelled u-n-e-m-p-l-o-y-e-d. You don’t think he’s going to get re-elected, do you?
Crippling the coalition will enable Australia to adopt sensible climate change policies.
While the Liberals are still full of climate change deniers Australia’s progress on climate change will be slowed.
What Australia needs is a bipartisan consensus to take action, the deniers in the Liberals won’t allow that to happen.
have you heard about the actress and the Bishop and the casting couch? they are the same one.
LOL! Have you completely ignored what is happening the last three days?
There are still a dozen or so Liberals that want to pass the CPRS.
SMH Poll
http://www.smh.com.au/polls/politics/results.html
It’s not very good when the face of the rebels is Abbott.
I want Turnbull to hold a press conference just to publicly sack Julie Bishop.
Therefore, the Green Senate vote continues to be irrelevant.
I’ll second that Shows On.
There’s bound to be a plethora of Bludgers who were not adults during the good old days when Hawke’s moderate, but sometimes somnambulent, Labor government could depend upon the entertaining spectacle of incessant public infighting among the Conservatives, whether it was Peacock (with Tuckey as his Stormtrooper Oberleutnant) or Bjelke-Petersen that kept Howard’s cabal out of the Lodge.
Inevitably, a Conservative leader will paper over their cracks (and crackpots) to win government by exploiting manifestations of xenophobia, voodoo economics and exaggerated military threats.
So, I’m going indulge in a wee bit of schadenfreude during this latest outbreak of Conservative fratricide because the Iraq war, Tampa, WorkChoices and an open contempt for multi-culturalism nearly tore our society apart spiritually.
Exactly! The Greens continue to be irrelevant.
Fantastic summary, I agree with you 1000% Bob.
Have emailed Joe asking him to support McFarlaine and the Lib’s NFF constituency, adding points about green projects, and their income-stream role for farmers who’ve struggled through two decades of atrocious weather conditions … Don’t give into the Metros, Joe!
There is going to be a Senate division soon so we will get to see where the Liberals go.
Just have to wait for a bit more filibustering from Barnett.
More idiocy. The Greens don’t hold the BOP. If you want to create make-believe in your head then you’re just going down the path you’ve always gone down.
Unless he gets Liberal preferences which might be his reward.
Bit of a typo there pal. Let me fix it for you:
the Green Senators continue to be irrelevant.
What songs did they sing?
The list being floated is Brandis, Coonan, Birmingham, Trood, Boyce, Ronaldson, Humphreys, Payne, Troeth, maybe Fisher, maybe Fierravanti-Wells. Johnston is a WA conservative but hasn’t resigned, so who knows? Also Scullion’s position is unknown.
I thought Poss said that if there was a DD before August then Fielding would be returned.
X sounds all high and mighty all the time.
Exactly, they hold the balance of nothing because as you said they are irrelevant.
Kroger and Heffernan are also unknown.
We emailed Hockey too – just to let the sod know he’s a rat if he turns on Turnbull now.
Try this gary
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIHXnDdfOgw
It is out of his control, Fielding can’t do anything to help him get elected, he basically needs to just pray, which I am sure he will do.
I strongly doubt he will vote against his Nat buddies.
Steve Price’s wife works for Hockey, you can bet this well known shockjock will be urging Hockey to dump the ETS.
No, bob1234, you’re interpretation
is upside down!
The Party Room decision was &, at time of typing, still is, to support the bill in the Senate! In that case, “breaking ranks” means voting it down!
I believe that Scullion opposes open road speed limits.
Exactly. All the Liberals who vote to delay the bill are the floor crossers.
sky says
A source close to turnbull says Julie didn’t tell him to go
But lib senators are saying she is telling them she did
If Scullion votes against the ETS the Nats could punish him by making him caucus with the Liberals.
Maybe, but he’s not actually a Nat. He’s a shadow cabinet member and he hasn’t resigned.
I meant FOR the CPRS!
3891
The Nats need him for numbers in the Senate for extra resources.
The Greens trying to figure out if the W.A. Senator amendments are part of the deal or if they are just rogue Liberals running their own amendments.
They are rogue.
He is counted as a Nat for parliamentary purposes but the NT CLP is a separate party.
Samantha Maiden:
ShowsOn, if Fielding has a smidgen of sense, he’ll vote for it, thereby keeping his job for a full term, and maybe picking up enough preferences.
So will Senator X. And Tory Senators elected 07.
But, currently, sense and hard/religious right RW seem to be mutually exclusive.
Well, thinking about his best interests, if it looks like it is going to pass he should vote against it.
If it looks like it is going to fail, he should vote for it.
But really if you listen to his contributions there is no chance he will vote for it.
{But really if you listen to his contributions there is no chance he will vote for it.}
I stopped listening to him when….actually I’ve never listened to him. It’s too hard to understand what the hell he is ever on about.
I’m waiting to see what Rudd has to say about all this.
What time is it in Trinidad & Tabago?
Thanks Psephos. There are just enough of them. Yes, Johnston has not resigned. But his roots are in the WA Goldfields. I heard Barry Haase, member for Kalgoorlie, saying on the ABC this week that he would support the ETS and that the miners and oil/gas industry wanted the matter settled. He had a distinctly pragmatic approach. Maybe Johnston has the same perspective. Brandis has been very public in support of Turnbull. And I can imagine Coonan and Troeth are prepared to stand up to Minchin. The others are unknown to me. How strange that such a pivotal moment in Australian political life should come down to the resolve of people we’ve never heard of…..
This is ridiculous, the Senate was going to divide on this amendment half an hour ago but Liberals just keep rocking up to filibuster.
First Q from Red Kerry to Hockey: “Mr. Hockey, have you blood in your hand?”
They don’t hold the balance of power because of Senate numbers.
Can’t wait till the next election
‘For they are all honourable men’
And yet they are doing the right thing!
To be honest I don’t think it will pass today. I think what will happen is a behind the scenes deal will be made to give the leadership to Hockey on a new policy of delaying the vote until next February. The Liberal Senators will then vote as a block to send the amended CPRS to a committee that will report then, giving Hockey 3 months to come up with a new ETS policy that all Liberals can support.
The DD is on, bring it on!!!!
Which makes them the balance of nothing, or as you put it, completely irrelevant.
Hola finns
(apols again)
As I raised way earlier in the thread, the basis of democracy is being attacked.Not just by the lib implosion itself but by the 5th column that obviously exists in the libs.
hockey is asking for advice on twitter FFS.
and now he is saying he wont challenge .
the tragicomedy descends into a complete farce
Gusface
Did Hockey really say that he will not challenge?
Their vote in the current Senate make-up is, yes.
ShowsOn,
Seems to me your reckoning is fairly close to that of Dr. van Oselen’s which I quoted earlier.
Sky seem to be saying Hockey doesn’t want it but Malcolm’s supporters are switching to joe so it will be forced upon him.
Irrelevant, yes.
One may say they are akin to tits on a bull, or like greens in a parliament. Totally, utterly, completely….
Irrelevant.
Yes. It seems they are going to replace the leader then hope he comes up with a policy they can all agree on.
They should actually agree on a policy then pick the best leader who can sell it.
Bring on the next election when the Senate numbers are more balanced and the Greens hold the sole balance of power
http://twitter.com/samanthamaiden
boer
According to the twitterati- Hockey has no intention of challenging
Don’t think there’s any hope of them even pretending to agree on a policy, given the number, and seniority of deniers.
I want Turnbull to hold a press conference just to publicly sack Julie Bishop.”
please, please, please make that happen
Chris Uhlmann makes an interesting point on the ABC that Hockey will only take the job if it is offered to him on a plate, and for that to happen Turnbull has to quit.
If Turnbull stays, and he shows every intention of being stubborn as hell, then Abbott has to move a spill. If Turnbull loses the spill but still refuses to quit, he goes head-to-head with Abbott in a leadershipo vote. Hockey has said he will not stand against Turnbull.
It is unlikely that the Libs are suicidal enough to follow Abbott, so if Turnbull toughs it out he might just be able to call everyone’s bluff
Yes Boerwar, Hockey said he wouldn’t challenge. But like all “honorable” men sometimes he has to bend to the will of the party. He’s a stand-up guy, our Joe.
You think so?
This lot are dumb enough to elect Tuckey as leader, let alone Abbott!
It would be fantastic if the amended CPRS passes, and then Turnbull holds a press conference and resigns.
If Turnbull was going to resign he would have done it by now. If his own deputy tells him to resign and he tells her to get stuffed, not much else is going to make him change his mind.
If Turnbull doesn’t resign, Hockey will not stand. The only option will be for Abbott to stand and take the axe to Turnbull himself, something he seems reluctant to do.
Possible outcomes. Turnbull resigns, Hockey becomes leader.
Turnbull refuses to resign, Hockey will not challenge, and Abbott will be forced to challenge and end up as leader.
Turnbull refuses to resign, Abbott gets cold feet and fails to challenge and this mess continues for another week or so, but in any case, MT is done.
And then quits parliament causing a by-election too
A two-word counterpoint to that: Alexander and Downer
Question for the forum.
Given that the Greens, X, and Fielding are going to vote against the ETS today, avoiding a “failure to pass” will require some Liberal Senators to either abstain or vote to pass the legislation.
So, how many Lib Senators will it take to do this?
I know that its been said that some of the Libs want to pass the bill, but will they still want to pass it if that becomes “against party policy” if there is a change in the leadership before the vote??
I think I can see the politics of the Libs blocking this bill. If it fails to pass and becomes a DD trigger there is likely to be a strong campaign from the Libs / MSM to bring on a DD election asap. They will pressure Rudd on the basis that if this is so important, and it has been blocked then its important enough to DD on now.
But, until now i have been firmly of the opinion that Rudd wont want an election in the first half of 2010 as that effectively shortens his second term by a year.
I’d see this as a very high risk strategy from the Libs. A DD on climate change, especially with the “deniers” ascendant in their party, would mean their electoral annihilation in the first half of 2010. All they would be left with is their safest seats and many of them who hold those seats are the old guard Howardistas. Greens with a good chance of getting BOP in the Senate in their own right as regardless of what anyone thinks of their performance to date on this, they will have a lot to campaign on.
Would Rudd go for an early 2010 DD , and accept a short second term if he thought that the Libs would be so damaged in that election that they would be reduced to a rump??
Hockey should leave it to Abbott. He should effectively say if the deniers are so sure of their position then one of them should lead the party (to electoral oblivion).
It seems to me that only after the Liberals lose a massive landslide election will they figure out that the overwhelming majority of Australians believe in climate change aand want sensible action to be taken to fix it.
And says he will endorse and donate $1 million to the Labor candidate.
And then quits parliament causing a by-election too
I think there may be a very real prospect of Turnbull resigning from the Liberal party, but standing as an independent in Wentworth at the next election. This man is not a quitter, he will not give up his own seat untill he is ready or he is forced out.
SO @ 3908
I think what will happen … send the amended CPRS to a committee that will report then, giving Hockey 3 months to come up with a new ETS policy that all Liberals can support.
LOL Super Joe to overcome the world wide commie conspiracy in a single bound and get Minchin to agree on an ETS. Yeah right.
He can hold up scorecards on answers with the other indies
He’d need to run for the senate and hope he got balance of power
Go Penny!
The World Today says there are some strong denials that the Bishop/Turnbull confrontation took place. I don’t know from whom.
Oh oh – Poss isn’t popular over the other side of the Tasman:
I think his track record suggests he will just move on
A Wentworth By-election?
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2009/11/a-wentworth-byelection.html
I think his track record suggests he will just move on
True, but he only ever moves on when he gets bored with the last thing he was doing and when he is ready to do it. I have a feeling that he feels he is not quite done with politics yet.
We’ll see i guess.
Per the link I posted in my last post, Antony reckons Turnbull won’t hang around.
I’d prefer Turnball defected to the ALP, and Rudd found him a frontbench spot!
We will see. However, going from dealing with collegues at Goldman Sachs to the Nationals et al in Senate…at the very least he must be fed-up, if not bored
Libs have pretty much never defected to Labor. They hate the fact that if they vote against their party, they face automatic expulsion.
Bob: let me guess, you think the Greens have a chance of winning Wentworth!
Abbott is kidding himself if he thinks he can unite the Liberals and have any hope of becoming competitive in an election. Having stood in favour of the ETS for months, at the last minute he has capitulated to the “nyet-sheviks”. What a pitiful example of weakness and misjudgment.
This is a fight the Liberals have to have. This issue has to be sorted out. The practical and the realists have to take on and defeat the ideologues and the die-hards. It just has to happen.
Minchin is saying that they have adcvice that the Senate can avoid a DD trigger by referring the legislation to a Senate ommittee for further consideration and to report back in February ie after Copenhagen and after a considerable period during which every rentseeker and King Coal pawn in the land would be invited to weep and wail.
Does anyone here have sufficient knowledge about Senate procedures to answer the following question: ‘Given that Rudd does not have a majority in the Senate, how can he force a DD trigger?’
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/malcolm-felled-by-grassroots-revolt/story-e6frg6zo-1225804383345
All so very true.
Antony Green’s conclusion from today’s column cited in 3939:
Per the link I posted in my last post, Antony reckons Turnbull won’t hang around.
Read it, Antony is usually pretty spot on, although Turnbull is known for doing the opposite of what people generally expect.
We’ll find out soon enough.
James Massola reports on twitter:
So that makes 11 meaning the policy no longer has shadow cabinet support and Malcolm’s maths “trick” on Tuesday night no longer holds true.
I wouldn’t underestimate Turnball. He’s now playing his own game. No longer ‘consensus building party leader’ but instead a CEO driving through unpopular organisational change. Unlike the rabble in mutiny, he will be playing the game with a level head.
Don’t get me wrong. I think he has little hope of retaining the leadership of a Liberal Party as we know it. But I think you’ll agree he looked more relaxed and comfortable in the presser last night than he has done for a long while. It’s because we’re now cooking in his kitchen; feeling a heat he knows and indeed loves.
There are many ways this could still play out.
In the OO’s terms Wentworth would be a test. They could make it a double test. They could run Deputy Leader Dutton in Wentworth.
I’d say he’s dreaming. You can get 10 lawyers that can give 10 interpretations, and it will be the GG who makes the call based on the legal advice she gets, not his.
Hockey is too much like Costello lazy would’nt work in an iron lung and also wants the leadership on a plate. MT a real man of steel should resign from the Liberals and move to the cross benches as an independant. opps just woke up from my nightmare and it is real.
Senator CONCETTA FIERRAVANTI – WELLS has just resigned from front bench….
Voting with her feet for oblivion. The Liberal party-room has become the Jones Town of Australian politics. Extraordinary.
Concetta must have just scored an offer too good to refuse from the plotters.
A Wentworth byelection would be likely in February – height of summer. Cannot be good timing for climate change sceptics
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/27/2755400.htm
Antony Green is so fast.
Dario
Just asking, not meant to be rude: Do you have a high level of knowledge of whether the Senate can avoid a DD by referring legislation to committee?
http://www.vexnews.com/news/7472/done-deal-liberal-hardheads-devise-solution/
Anyone know what Bolters is making of all this? His calculations were fairly close to mark when the Howard/Costello stink was on.
You can say one thing: the religious right of the NSW Liberals are exerting their influence!
Minchin on the ABC: UGH!
It’s all in the interpretation. If the GG considers that tactics have been used to stop legislation from going to a vote, that’s all that’s needed.
The Senate today stands in stark contrast to the storm raging outside it. It’s been utterly boring.
The nerve of Minchin, claiming only he can heal the divisions in the Liberals.
Oh sure, but only on his terms, ie. no ETS, climate change isn’t real etc.
Dario
Thank you.
Bob Brown is way behind in the debate.
He should tell the government if they leave the target at 5 – 25 the Greens will oppose it.
If they change it to 10 – 25 the Greens will abstain (enabling it to pass), and if they change it to 15 – 25 they will vote for it.
Brown can’t see that that the circumstances have changed and that the Greens now have more power than the divided Liberals.
The very slow progress suggests that the Liberal Senators are slowly coming to a new position of sending the bill off to another committee.
Senator CONCETTA FIERRAVANTI – WELLS has just resigned from front bench
She characterises herself as the Senator for the NSW Southern Highlands and South Coast, so the Illawarra Mercury is always serving up her self-promotions. Yet another no-talent Jackie Kelly wannabe.
Yeah a nutcase wackaloon denier thinks he is the go to guy in the modern Liberals.
Minchin is saying that they have advice that the Senate can avoid a DD trigger by referring the legislation to a Senate Committee for further consideration and to report back in February……
Really, who is he trying to fool!
In any case, postponement is no solution. The agony will merely be prolonged. In the end, such devices won’t work. Everyone knows that Minchin lacks sincerity on CC. He has brought his party to the point of self-destruction to serve his own ideological convictions. What a conceit.
ShowsOn, there’s many aspects to the CPRS, not just the bloody target… sheesh… grow a brain please
That summarises the Liberal party problems – people want to be Jackie Kelly!
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26408091-5005962,00.html
http://dailylolz.lolpolz.com/
The latest is just classic
“Bob Brown is way behind in the debate….”
SO, It is way too late for the G’s to be trying to have a role in this fiasco. The G’s have been playing on another pitch for some time.
“Senator CONCETTA FIERRAVANTI – WELLS has just resigned from front bench”
Who?
from hockeys twitter
http://twitter.com/joehockeymp
Xenophon demanding a division.
Let’s see where teh Liberals go.
So China has come out today determined to reduce its carbon footprint.
The Libs have come out determined not to allow Rudd any opportunity to look good at Copenhagen. That’s all this is about. Everyone of them has said the ETS is only for Rudd’s vanity. What a mob
Yep, that drop kick senator from SA basically said just that on Lateline.
It’s not much easier to imagine this Joe as PM either.
Strictly speaking, no they haven’t
Does he have two Twitter accounts? I thought that this: http://twitter.com/Joehockey is the real one.
So will Joe Hockey make it as the first leader of a major Australian political party with an Armenian and Palestinian background?
I still think that Turnbull’s history shows that he never backs down in a fight, and the only way he will leave is in a box.
he will make them stand up and fight him toe to toe, but by putting up Abbott and Hockey, his opponents have brought a knife to a gun fight
I think we all know that this “Let’s delay it until after Copenhagen” is just a delaying tactic. Even if the U.S and China and India were suddenly to announce huge emissions cuts, the likes of Minchin would be still be arguing that climate change isn’t a man made thing and so we should do nothing.
I thought the government won a mandate to do this in 2007, not that the Liberals ever respect electoral mandates of Labor governments, remember 1975? :rolleyes:
Does anyone think that some of the moderate sensi-liberals will resign from parliament over this? I mean other than Turnbull who is obvious.
Just as there are a lot of denier faction Liberals that seem to be opposed to the idea of doing anything on climate change, could there also be OTHER Liberals that will refuse to be in parliament following a policy of do nothing and / or delay?
Hockey’s picture is plastered over his Twitter page.
Exactly! After Copenhagen it will be “let’s wait for the Senate committee”, then it will be “let’s see the treasury modeling of the Frontier Report”, then it will be “Let’s wait until the U.S. has legislated their scheme”, then it will be “Let’s wait for India to legislate their scheme.”
Shows On,
What did I say early yesterday evening? I’d like you to show how guillotining each and every amendment can get the bill voted on by 3.45 pm today!
I might often be wRONg, but I surely “wasn’t” wrong with that call!
“NO”!
I would have thought a motion to guillotine all the amendments in one go would be possible
Maybe, but not until after Abbott has his turn!
The government moves a motion to limit debate on each amendment to 5 minutes.
The senate divides on that motion, if it passes there is now time limits on debate.
I doubt it! They’ll either go to the backbench or become Independents – MaFarlane is a prime candidate to join the independents, I reckon.
And it depends who takes over?
If it’s Hockey, the likes of Pyne and Hunt and Dutton stay where they are.
If it’s Abbott, I can foresee Hunt getting demoted altogether, Pyne and Dutton staying in shadow cabinet but having less senior roles.
NO! There are amendments by the Mod Libs, the No ETS Libs, the Greens and Mr X!
They can probably bundle all the Mod Libs amendments but the others have to be put through.
It’s Democracy in action!
I bet Abbott would promote Dennis Jensen too!
THAT would make for an interesting election! Nats V Libs V McFarlane in Groom. It would split the farmers who see climate change as an issue from those that don’t.
Well at the moment it sounds like democracy inaction.
Does the Lower House come back later today, especially if this thing is sent off to a senate committee?
I wanna see Albo and Combet and Tanner let loose, throw some bile at them!
Samantha Maiden is now reporting disagreement on what Bishop said.
And MacFarlane would easily win Groom as an Independent, and you can bet he’d get Labor preferences, and Rudd would spend a shitlload of money in the seat.
No they are coming back on Monday. most of them have left Canberra last night.
QT On Monday, especially if there’s a new Liberal leader by then?
Yes please, they can do it without Rudd, no problem!
I agree that Labor would preference him, but I strongly doubt they would spend much money there. They would probably run dead to HELP him get elected ahead of a Lib or Nat.
It would be interesting if the lib ran on a climate denial platform.
Are all the libs at the next election going to run on their own climate change policy?
I would just like to add my approval of the http://www.mychild.gov.au website. It now allows you to search for all the child care facilities in your area, see their fees, and their vacancies! AWESOME
I strongly doubt it.
The House probably won’t even sit if the CPRS can’t get through the Senate. There will be nothing for them to do.
Shows On,
You’re starting to struggle a bit now trying to get your argument to hold up.
That,s still 16 hours of sitting for 200 amendments!
Are you too proud to admit that I was right. Also I saw an early post of yours that contradicted your later ones!
Can you explain that?
And amendment is a single change to the legislation. The amendments are moved as groups because it usually requires more than one change to the text to achieve a change. There won’t be 200 divisions for every single change.
It is completely wrong to just multiply 200 by 5 and say that is how long debate will last. The committee stage has already gone for over 13 hours.
The Senate can move to end debate whenever a majority of the Senate agrees to do that.
Groom is in Qld. The LNP will only run “one” candidate!
I’m sure they would figure out a way to run 2.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/27/2755460.htm
http://twitter.com/samanthamaiden
That cannot happen until “all” amendments have been presented!
You don’t give up easily do you? Bit like Turnbull. Lost the battle but still fighting on!
I was afraid of that.
FANTASTIC!
I want to see the look on Abbott’s face when he has to repudiate legislation that 12 Liberals just helped pass. Let’s see who the big unifier is then.
If there’s no resolution by 3.45PM, the deal is null and void, then Rudd is entitled to let this hang until August, then go to a DD election, and then negotiate far higher targets with a friendlier senate. This is the best the Liberals were ever going to get out of the government, and they’re tossing it away – dumb idiots, all because they’ve been scared off by the shockjocks and the do nothing mad right wing tossers!
They’ve only got themselves to blame for condemning their party to an electoral meltdown in 2010.
bob @ 3987: He will definitely be the first leader of a major Australian political party with an Armenian and Palestinian background that is totally against asylum seekers.
[That cannot happen until “all” amendments have been presented
Have been watching the Senate this morning and am amazed at the lack of intelligence and analytical ability as well as a lack of the ability to read and/or comprehend.
Firstly, we have Senator Milne unable to initially understand a simple statement from Senator Wong. Senator Wong had to repeat a simple answer regarding property rights a number of times (I think Senator Wong said about 8 times) and even then Senator Milne did not understand
As well Senator Milne could not comprehend that if the “gateway” range targets were advanced that the certificates held by business would in fact increase in value not decreases – this is the simple law of supply and demand.
We have Senator Barnett who was unable or unwilling to read information supplied and was expecting Senator Wong to explain in details amendments that the Coalition had put forward.
My admiration for Senator Wong has increased enormously after only watching her for a short time this morning. She keeps focused, never looses he cool, has infinite patience with the kiddies from the Greens and Opposition and is on top of here brief.
She is a remarkable women and the Labor Party is very lackey indeed to have her as one of its Ministers.
Of course it can. A majority of the Senate can do anything it likes in relation to a bill. If there is a majority willing to use the guillotine, the bill can be declared urgent and passed in an half an hour.
There’s a “bundle” of Government amendments being put up now! 1 to 23!
This is likely to be filibustered too! A long way to go to 200!
Psephos: What’s your boss Senator Feeney saying, any intelligence from Labor HQ?
LOL! That comment was a JOKE reflecting the constant divisions between the Nationals and the Liberals in the Liberal National Party! I am very sorry for omitting a
and a “(THIS WAS A JOKE)” to make it clear!
LOL! I’m listening on the radio thank you very much.
You STILL haven’t explained why the Senate couldn’t vote to place a time limit on the consideration of amendments! They have done it in the past (not often, but they have), why couldn’t they do it today!?
I never asserted that they can just IGNORE amendments. I simply proposed the FACT that they can place a TIME LIMIT for each GROUP of amendments. At the moment they keep debating until there are no more questions about each amendment. But the Senate could pass a motion to say that FROM NOW ON, there will only be 1 hour of debate for each group of amendments.
Going by what’s been happening so far, what are your odds on that happening?
IMO, not very good!
I think the Government should propose that the Senate sit on the weekend.
If the Government waits until Monday the Liberals will have a new leader who will tell all the Liberal senators to send the legislation to a committee.
My admiration for Senator Wong has increased enormously after only watching her for a short time this morning. She keeps focused, never looses he cool, has infinite patience with the kiddies from the Greens and Opposition and is on top of here brief.
Seconded. she’s one of the sharpest minds in Canberra IMO, possibly on par with Rudd himself.
Sharper than Gillard at any rate. Forget Julia, Prime Minister Penny 2016!!
A majority of the Senate can move a motion to move to the 3rd reading whenever they feel like it.
So are you now going to admit that you are wrong? I always thought you to be one of the “better” and more informed posters here that could put up a good point and be flexible enough to shift position once better information is available!
They have got 2 hours and ten minutes to do that!
What are “your” odds on it happening?
Our Penn is killing them with her smiles and intelligence. She rocks as she carries the Govt all by herself in the House of Shrills
That wasn’t what you asserted. You said that it is impossible to end the debate. You were wrong, get over it.
I imagine the government is currently trying to figure out what to do. I think the Senate should sit all of tonight. Surely the government knows that the new Liberal leader on Monday will not support the CPRS.
142 Limitation of debate on bills
(1) When a motion for leave to introduce a bill is called on, or when a message
is received from the House of Representatives transmitting a bill for
concurrence, or at any other stage of a bill, a minister may declare that the
bill is an urgent bill, and move that the bill be considered an urgent bill, and
such motion shall be put forthwith without debate or amendment.
(2) If that motion is agreed to, a minister may forthwith, or at any time during
any sitting of the Senate or committee, but not so as to interrupt a senator
who is speaking, move a further motion or motions specifying the time
which (exclusive of any adjournment or suspension of sitting, and
notwithstanding anything contained in any other standing or other order)
shall be allotted to all or any stages of the bill, and an order with regard to
the time allotted to the committee stage of the bill may, out of the time
allotted, apportion time to particular clauses, or to particular parts of the
bill.
(3) On such further motion or motions with regard to the allotment of time,
debate shall not exceed 60 minutes, and in speaking, a senator shall not
exceed 10 minutes, and if the debate is not sooner concluded, forthwith
upon the expiration of that time the President or the chairman shall put any
questions on any amendment or motion already proposed from the chair.
(4) For the purpose of bringing to a conclusion any proceedings which are to
be brought to a conclusion on the expiration of the time allotted under any
motion passed under the provisions of this standing order, the President or
the chairman shall at the time appointed put forthwith the question on any
amendment or motion already proposed from the chair, and, in the case of
the consideration of any bill in committee, shall then put any clauses and
any amendments and new clauses and schedules, copies of which have
been circulated among senators 2 hours at least before the expiration of the
allotted time, and any other question requisite to dispose of the business
before the Senate or committee, and no other amendments, new clauses or
schedules shall be proposed.
(5) The motion that the question be now put shall not be moved in any
proceedings in respect of which time has been allotted under this standing
order.
(6) Where a time has been specified for the commencement of proceedings
under this standing order, when the time so specified has been reached the
business then before the Senate or committee shall be postponed forthwith
and the consideration of the urgent bill proceeded with, and all steps
necessary to enable this to be done shall be taken accordingly.
Good filibustering, Senator Milne! Keep it up – the Greens and the Libs can kill this CPRS yet!
Guillotine Motions: Australian Senate
Presumably, the time limit stated (?3.45pm Friday)was agreed. I note that Bob Brown (ABC Midday Report) indicated that he wouldn’t support a delay/ continuing filibuster; so I guess that means only two Libs are required to block attempts to overturn the guillotine.
Penny Wong for Wentworth?
scorpio, you were wRONg. Just admit it and move on.
barnyard’s on
Get over your bloody self!
Where did i say what you just asserted I said here?
Just about every comment on here for the last two days involved superposition on the part of the poster.
Except apparently for Shows On who is the font of all wisdom and knows “exactly” what is going to transpire in this Senate sittings!
Good luck with that!
I rescind that remark. Filibustering is not good for democracy. Good to see that St Bob won’t support a continuing filibuster.
LOL! Oh crapping hell move on.
You idiot! It wasn’t about what is going to transpire, it is about what COULD transpire, and you are WRONG. The Government could seek to limit the debate whenever it wants. Does it have the numbers? Well we DON’T KNOW because we have no idea what about a dozen Liberal Senators would do.
wRONg. Move on.
While these donkeys play their stupid political games. the world goes on and the markets are being hit by the remnant of the GFC. AS went down 2.5% and AUD is at 90c USD. GFC is not over as yet:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/nov/27/dubai-world-debt-ftse-fall
Stop trying to steal S.A.’s best Senator.
Better than Corey Bernadi?? Better than Mr X? Surely you jest ShowsOn
If people can show where I am wrong and they are right, then I can accept it!
So far I have just been accused of being wrong on a supposition which is being determined by what has so far happened, what is currently happening and what I expect to happen!
Nothing more! But some people seem to think that their supposition is better than “my” informed, supposition! I think there is just argument for arguments sake for “some” people to amuse themselves at another’s expense!
Lets all just wait and see, shall we!
can someone interpret what barnyards saying.
My head hurts every time he talks.
Stop him abusing our intelligences
please
Scorpio
You are not familiar enough with the process. At any time at all any majority of senators in the senate can call for the third reading of the bill, including all of the amendments or indeed just some of the proposed amendments – the ones they collectively want. Once that reading occurs there is a vote (division if required) that makes the bill law. Not every amendment has to be presented in the senate if a majority of senators vote to go straight to the third reading.
At 3.45 Labor will likely make the motion to go straight to a 3rd reading of the bill with the Government amendments only. If the 12 Liberal senators loyal to Turnball join them then the third reading will happen, whether other senators like it or not.
Then there will be a vote to make that bill with just the Government amendments law. Again, if the loyal Liberal senators vote yes then the CPRS legislation is law.
If I was a Lib, I’d be hoping for Hockey to take over as leader and say this wasn’t a denier coup, it was about delaying the vote until after Hopenhagen. He should point out that if it Rudd really thought it was so urgent that we get an ETS voted for, that Rudd should call a DD election and every day he fails to do so shows it was all BS blah blah.
It might limit the damage.
Shows – wouldnt dream of taking Minchin from you!
Barnyard is a raving lunatic
Move the hell on.
The CPRS that nearly half of the Liberal party supports is going to bring destitution to Australia.
Thank you.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/11/27/defectors-disloyalty-and-confusion-swirl/
My goodness but Joyce thinks he’s Costello reincarnated with his loud ranting. He’s building up like Cossie used to into a froth and lather – he’ll have a stroke!
They have and you’ve ignored it
So the Greens will be hoping for a DD, increase their numbers and hold the balance of power. The Coalition a DD trigger, decrease their numbers and scarmble over the few seats they have…..huh!! Fielding wants a DD trigger but will turn to dust on the result….huh?? Mr x will actually increase his vote or his numbers maybe with a DD
So to the wets, will Turnbull become the best PM Australia never had???
Barnyard sounds like one of those Rug salesman…
But this would be silly because the opposition has TWICE rejected the Government’s bill, EVEN after the opposition agreed to pass it!
The Greens are highly likely to hold the BOP either way. But a DD increases the chances of the election of other minor parties, probably something the Greens don’t want.
That Dubai situation has been brewing for some time. The sultan has been borrowing money of the other sultans just to stay afloat. It isn’t really a shock so I am surprised that the market would take such a hit on this supposed ‘revelation’…
The sooner that Dubai disappears back into the desert, the sooner that tribute to Ozymandias will not scar the middle east anymore.
They can say their policy was always to wait until after Hopenhagen. When Hopenhagen flops, they can use the “Rudd wants to go it alone and destroy our economy just to bignote himself to the UN”.
It’s worth a shot.
Go Bob! Give Joyce the slap he deserves for that little hissy fit.
Catholic Church clears way for Abbott leadership tilt:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,26408218-23109,00.html
No they can’t, not after they were all over TV saying they would support the “excellent deal” that was “made in good faith”.
The Government would just say how can we TRUST the opposition to pass the bills on the 3rd time after they reneged on the deal on the 2nd go round?
At least Brown is making Senate listening a little more entertaining than it’s been so far.
True. But I wish they would just talk to the amendments.
I wish Doog Cameron would leave the chamber, he just can’t help trolling Liberals, which is normally fun, but today it just wastes time.
In addition to the guillotine motion (as above) there’s a procedural or “closure” motion a classic “anti-filibuster” guillotine.
Any member who hasn’t spoken on a motion can move that ‘the motion be put’. The chairperson can rule the motion out of order, if there has not been reasonable opportunity for opposing viewpoints to be expressed. If the motion is lost, debate continues as before. If the motion is carried, the mover may exercise a right of reply before the motion is put to the meeting.
This debate should meet the main criterion. Even if it’s ruled “out of order”, that can be challenged. If Bob B sticks to his Midday Report statement, an “out of order” ruling can be overturned. I don’t know if the ALP has appointed a senator to stay out of the debate to ensure this guillotine can be used; but with so many TU “bosses” on board, I’d assume so.
I think the Greens would be in big trouble if we had a DD election soon with Liberals running on a Denialist platform.
1)
DDs are bad for the Greens anyway as other minor parties get chances
2)
The Denialerals would run a massive denialist, anti-ETS scare campaign which would make anything the Greens stood for seem altra extreme to the average voter in the middle
3)
The Greens would not get many preferences from the Denialerals in any situations where they are used to getting them to help get senators elected ahead of ALP.
All you did there was personally abuse me, never contradicted what I have been saying and then contradicted yourself!
Nice one son!
It seems as though you are trying to develop a PB version of the Liberals split.
I had some strange idea that we have always been on the same side.
It seems I was dead wrong!
Easy. Just say the Party voted against it but Turnbull fudged the numbers.
Wasting time is irrelevant today. Either the guillotine is applied and we have a vote, or it isn’t and we come back after the Liberals sort out their leadership wranglings.
diog, i will pin you on this wRONg no: 999,9999
Doug Cameron is great value, especially in Estimates.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/joes-deals-within-deals-20091127-jw22.html
Tony Wright predicts Turnbull-backer Somlyay will be “given an offer he can’t refuse” and Dutton will take his plum seat of Fairfax.
More like the Tower of Babel, I’d have thought!
Same idea, though,
Brown and Joyce sound just alike – two angry ranting ignorant populists. In the Senate we now have the spectacle of two lots of cheap populists grandstanding on the CPRS, abusing each other over who is more populist than whom, yet they both intend voting against the bill. Ironies of politics.
Tony Wright thinks that there will be a spill on Monday where Hockey will be elected uncontested. Abbott gets Shadow Treasury and Peter Dutton gets Fairfax (Alex Somylay’s seat):
http://www.nationaltimes.com.au/opinion/politics/joes-deals-within-deals-20091127-jw22.html
New Morgan Poll (F2F, 21/22 Nov): 58.5/41.5
Finns
If you think there will be a global ETS with binding CO2 reduction targets for the developed world at Hopenhagen, you need to put more water in your pool.
And they can’t be trusted because they say one thing then do something else.
Who is the totally looony talking now
No way, I wanted this thread to get to over 9000.
I think it was this geezer:
http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/senators/homepages/senators.asp?id=I0V
Politicians lie and backflip all the time. Who’s going to care?
Senator Fielding:
Ordinary Australians = Farmers, Butchers, Bakers.
Fielding is fun too.
My guess is about 7.5 million voters.
Good prophesy! What is the alternative if that doesn’t happen or Abbott has stacked the numbers?
Adam Carr, from the Labor Right, accusing the Greens and the Nats of populism!
HAHA!
That has to be the best comment of the week
So Abbott, Andrews and his merry band do not believe CC with all the scientific evidence, but they have no problem in believing fairy tales written in a book 2000 years ago…..huh? The easter bunny, santa and the tooth fairy, are they plausible ?
Their two candidates, Kevin Undertaker Andrews and Tony Mad Monk Abbott, are simply are not electable. Even these stupid donkeys know it and that is why they are hanging out for Joe Sloppy Hockey.
And Sloppy wont move to topple Turnbull, then Turnbull says: “I shall not be moved”. Who was the genius of the Liberal Party that came up with this comedy sketch.
Erica Betz talking. Hopefully he doesn’t announce that the CRPS deal is off.
OHoh a senator just said that another senator was ‘wRONg’.
erica about to say something profound
Bludgers, following on from Triton’s post @ 4086
Morgan’s released a one week result again.
ALP 48 LNP 35.5 GR 9 TPP 58.5/41.5
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/trends.cfm?
LOL! Senator Betz trying to weasel the Liberals out of the deal.
Diog, keep up to date old son. Nobody is talking about “binding” targets anymore. Hopinghogen will set the framework and roadmap to reach that binding targets to be done during 2010.
http://twitter.com/latikambourke
There’s going to be some very frowny faces on Monday if the ETS gets up this afternoon. Hockey would be nuts to take over the leadership if the ETS passes. He’ll be blamed for it passing and the election defeat.
Thanks God for the Cricket, 7/441? They should be 7/2564 by now. Too slow.
A couple of follow ons from last night.
Boerwar we got 7mls in the end.
Gus, I went down to the river and the beach, and had a good look around, and I have to admit, the Boswell Tide Report is correct – everything all looks the same. I couldn’t notice anything different.
Those IPCC reports are bunkum, the Boswell Tide Report is the standard now.
Finns
So you are saying it has flopped already.
I hope the government guillotine this farce in an hour and a half.
The opposition Senators are just filibustering. Only the Greens and Xenophon are asking decent questions. Fielding is just trolling the Liberals about trying to back out of the deal.
Someone a page or so ago responded to a call for Penny to contest Wentworth with this:
“Stop trying to steal S.A.’s best Senator.”
She is SA’s #2 ALP Senator.
We can offer the #1 senator, Don Farrell, in her place.
You can have him.
Aristotle
Nice little thunderstorm here. 12 ml.
Ugh, Family First can have him.
You mean the DLP! (Which he was a member of).
Oooh. Penny getting stuck in. Politely. Devastating stuff.
This is not fair. Here we have this petite, soft spoken, smiling, obliging, asian woman being bullied by a bunch of hairy aggressive white gringos.
hoho McDonald raises a point of order on relevance. Hurting… haha.
Diog, all i will say is that you flopped more times than Hopinghagen
She can handle it
Finns @ 4117 – sounds like the Howard policy from the 80s.
And the 90s, and the ……
Aristotle:
Poll details:
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2009/4441/
Burgey, snappy
Wong should just talk about the amendments and move them and watch the Liberals scatter when they divide.
Dario, she’s not a Hakka woman for nothing.
Oh yeah… those boat-people. Seems like it was last year.
Go Penny! Abetz is a total fool!
Eratosthanes @ 4054,
Seems like everyone else is! This must happen every week! Somehow or other I seem to have missed it!
And how anyone can compare “this” with previous laboured debates in the Senate when the circumstances are totally different ( how often have the Libs split like this?)
“No one” knows what the anti-ETS crew are plotting with the pro mob right at this very moment and “no one” knows what will transpire at 3.45 because “anything” can happen and probably will.
The Pro crowd “may” have the numbers and they “may” not.
We will just have to wait and see, won’t we? One hour, 45 minutes left! ‘-)
Our Penn is not wRONg. She’s from South Australia, but she aint no Diog.
Bernardi called Wong “a High Priestess”.
Let me repeat:
It looks like the CPRS will pass with unacceptable amendments thanks to WA.
Wong is starting to build to the motion to have a 3rd reading without further debate. My guess is that her advice coming from those outside is that she has at least 7 Lib senators.
This is truly extraordinary!
Do those W.A. Senators have the numbers to get their amendments through?
Well, Finns. It ain’t fair alright. It ain’t fair on the trogs.
It’s made BBC!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8382069.stm
The guillotine will be applied. If Senators don’t want to shut up, they can then move continuance. Only if the continuance motion is successful – and with the ALP, Greens & c12 Liberals voting against it, it won’t be – then the whole package is put without further debate. There’ll be a division. That’s it. Merry Christmas everyone!
Then the bill goes back to the Reps, where the ALP can’t lose & will certainly apply the closure “I move that the motion be put”. No debate. Happy Christmas everyone. Especially those with planes to catch & functions to attend!
Everything else you hear is spin, a con job, hot air, whatever.
Minchin & Abetz don’t control the Senate, the President of the Senate (John Hogg) does & I can’t see Hoggy letting Minchin & Abetz get away with anything.
I hope so.
Totally.
And if it goes through, the Government can say it had the bipartisan support of the Liberals!
the guillotine is ON
Who’s Philly Buster?
Let me repeat:
This is very just. Here we have this petite, soft spoken, smiling, obliging, asian woman beating the shit out of a bunch of hairy aggressive white gringos.
I kind of hope there will be a short debate. It will be Gillard versus . Gillard will be thanking the sensi-Liberals for doing what is right for the nation while Mr/s Whoever will be explaining that the Liberals in the senate didn’t actually mean to do what they did.
[Who’s Philly Buster?}
Laura Norders talkative sister?
Nobody would want to get themselves ejected at this particular point in history. Their whips would be giving them the mother of all floggings if….
ShowsOn, I don’t know, except it wouldn’t surprise me if the Liberals used that as a last-minute maneuver to scuttle the CPRS and the ALP will use the Liberal chaos to justify the call for a DD. Just speculation..
I have seen mentioned a number of times by Green supporters on this site that come the revaluation (they mean a double dissolution election (DD)) that somehow all problems over the CPRS will be solved. The reason for this is that they believe that offer such an election they (the Greens) will have the balance of power in the Senate.
I find this hard to understand the confidence displayed by the Greens in this argument
Firstly, there is no guarantee that there will be a DD election. From some comments (I think from Mr A Green) I believe that Labor will get a better electoral result from a half-senate election. A full senate election gives smaller parties and independents a greater chance of attaining a quota.
After any election there are a number of possibilities.
1) the Government has a majority
2) the Lib/Nats have a majority
3) the Greens have the Balance of power by themselves
4) the Greens together with other minor parties and independents have the balance of power
So assuming that we end up with the Greens having the BOP and the Larbor Party still in occupies the Treasury Benches what makes The Grens think that the labor Government will move far enough toward their position form the greens to support an amended CPRS.
If I understand the Greens argument they have 2 basic concerns. Firstly, the “gateway targets” are (miles) too low and secondly that “polluters” are getting free certificated and grants.
What makes the Greens think that the Government would abandon these policy decisions?
What we would end up with is a situation like we have today with the only Party willing to implement a CPRS is the Labor Party but it will not have the numbers to get it through the Senate.
Eventually we may have a DD election but even then what makes the Greens think that the Labor Government subsequent to the joint sitting would consider Green amendments to the CPRS that was passed at that joint sitting.
It would appear that the Greens are quite prepared to delay the introduction of a CPRS indefinitely unless they get their way.
This is a very strange way for a party the professes to put the environment first to behave.
It is not too difficult to see that in 2050 we could still be sitting around in our wheelchairs talking about the introduction of a CPRS.
Where is Marie Antoinette?
Since there is a Morgan Poll out this thread will probably be cut off soon and replaced. over 4.1 thousand posts must be a record.
having someone eat her cake?
McDonald talking about algae. How appropriatement.
I STILL don’t think we will have an election before July. Labor would HATE to only have a 2 year 2nd term:
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2009/11/future-election-dates.html#more
Yeah Finn. Totally unfair. The gringos don’t stand a chance!
Typical William applying the guillotine.
Someone needs to distract William. Putting lots of posts in moderation might work.
Gus, i have to eat the cake rather than the Pho
mmmm pho.
Funny guillotine!
Wong is responding to Mc Donald.He will respond back! The clock is ticking!
I agree Finns. She is worth more than the lot of them. All this crap she has had to put up with and has answered with extreme decorum.
If the ETS is passed I know it goes back to the Reps on monday to be ticked off but then what?
Does it have to return to the Senate again ?
If so could the Libs with new leader still scarper it?
Psephos – with lemon and thai mint?
Where is Marie Antoinette?
The street scuttle-butt was in the late 18th century, it was her son!
Media trashing existed way before the modern media emerged.
4154
Deliberately submitting lots posts just to be put in moderation would probably get a ban.
Fielding:
Memo to Malyasia/China: Please send more Penny Wongs.
Herr Doktor, Gus denied me a Pho
Nope its passed.
i think the machinations are winding up
the mood has changed in the last 5 mins
thanks rua
Fielding is saying that the Fibs have Fibbed to him!
How bombshellment!
Boerwar, dont you worry about that. i know where to get them
Yeah I’m sure Psephos is working on a Senator Migration program to go along with his mercenary, nursing, and Indian doctor schemes
So, whats new, Fielding “just doesn’t understand it!!!”
…and Vietnamese Ice Coffee
It would be hilarious if Fielding starts supporting all the government amendments on the grounds that the Liberals said they supported them.
They broke up in the 80′s, Gus.
OMG, Fielding is talking sense. I need a lie down.
Pho-king hell
Finns
You should be promoted forthwith to become the next Minister for Immigration and Pinnipeds.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/malcolm-turnbull-denies-being-asked-to-step-down-by-julie-bishop/story-e6frgczf-1225804570331
One hour left!
Nothing’s changing Sen Fielding, just consult the Boswell Tide Report.
Fielding and the Nats are now fighting. How embarrassment.
Fielding must know by now that Abetz’s count is based on the list of speakers who spoke for and against. Abetz has a point if the published list is accurate.
Let’s see. 60 minutes by 60 seconds equals 3600 eternities to go.
There is a deep divide between the Vatican and (that scourge of paedophile priests )Cardinal Pell on climate change. Hockey is with the Vatican. Andrews,Abbot and the other right wing loons are taking their instructions from that buyer of boats for people smugglers the very holy G.Pell. http://www.catholic.org/featured/headline.php?ID=4377http://www.catholicnewsagency.com/new.php?n=8678 Its the Catholic Churches gift to the Liberals.
Did Erica Betz go into the chamber and claim the Liberal partyroom doesn’t support the deal as like a threat to the Liberal senators that still support the partyroom decision?
Does he want it to appear that the dozen are crossing the floor, when really it is those opposed to Turnbull that cross the floor?
So any idea what the Lib position is now?
Erica is probably just saying whatever is in the interests of Erica.
Please! (I’m not streaming) What Bombshell did Erica drop?
I’d have thought Liberal lying was a national “taken for granted”. Fielding’s that dumb?
damn shame that
ps dont tell the libs,they seem to luv em
OHOH Fielding wants an informed debate!
Julie is still in the cupboard!
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/malcolm-turnbull-denies-being-asked-to-step-down-by-julie-bishop/story-e6frgczf-1225804570331
Fielding is worried about wasting greenhouse gases? How can you waste something that has no value a/c to the Denialists. A bit inconsistent, really.
McGauran – it’s the comedy hour.
He just went into the Senate and said that the Liberal partyroom does NOT support the government amendments (which is the deal).
Did you hear him after the tea break last night? He sounded drunk.
Does anyone really care what Fielding says?
I’m sure he is. But the list of speakers in the party room has been in newspapers, and this morning he challenged journalists to ring up every one if they think the party room supported passing the CPRS.
I do when he trolls the Liberals.
Lets play a game while we’re waiting for the guillotine to happen. Try and get to 5000 posts before this thread is cut off!
New thread (sorry, Dewgong).