Hard to say what to make of a poll conducted last weekend in the present fluid circumstances, but the latest Morgan face-to-face poll suggests the Oceanic Viking issue was washing out of the system even before the Liberal Party went into its present meltdown. Labor is up three points on the primary vote to 48 per cent while the Coalition is down one to 35.5 per cent. The Greens are steady on 9 per cent; most of the balance comes from Family First, which has corrected from 3 per cent to 1.5 per cent after an aberrant result last week. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is up from 56.5-43.5 to 58.5-41.5. Elsewhere:
• Antony Green’s blog has been a hive of activity recently. Of particular interest is his latest post, in which he departs his comfort zone to assert we can expect a by-election in Wentworth if the Liberal leadership saga plays out as presently expected. Also featured is an epic account of the bureaucratic nightmare involved in the enrolment of young voters, apropos the NSW government’s plans to introduce automatic enrolment.
• Peter Kennedy of the ABC reports the resurgent WA Nationals have chosen John McCourt to head their Senate ticket. The party made a big fanfare of its Senate hopes at its state conference earlier this year, promising a campaign heavily funded by unpleasant Queensland mining billionaire Clive Palmer.
• The Advertiser tells us it has seen internal party polling (we are not told which party’s) which shows the Liberals were building a head of steam even before the past week’s unpleasantness. The Liberal primary vote across selected marginal seats (again we are not told which ones, which makes the figures hard to read) is said to have been 39 per cent to Labor’s 31 per cent (the undecided were presumably not distributed), with the Liberals leading 52-48 on two-party preferred.
• Jeff Whalley of the Geelong Advertiser reports Kurt Reiter, managing director of IT consultancy Digital Quay, has been preselected to run against Labor’s Lisa Neville in the state seat of Bellarine.
• Nino Bucci of the Bendigo Advertiser reports Anita Donlon, founder of the “Independent Musos Network” (can’t say I’ve met too many Liberal-voting “independent musos” in my time), and Michael Langdon, former Australian Technical college principal, are jockeying for Liberal preselection in Bendigo West and Bendigo East respectively. An announcement will be made next week.
• Western Australia’s Willagee state by-election, held to replace former Premier Alan Carpenter, will be held tomorrow. Notwithstanding that these are not the happiest of times for state Labor, their candidate Peter Tinley should have no trouble seeing off a Green, an ex-Green independent and the Christian Democratic Party. I don’t think it would be too much of a stretch to say the most interesting thing about the by-election has been the Poll Bludger comments thread. Those wishing to discuss the by-election are invited to do so there; live coverage will as always be available here from the close of polling booths tomorrow.
2,749 Comments
The gas isn’t just in the coalmines!
The punters are getting on Joe.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/punters-throw-their-money-behind-hockey-20091127-jw13.html
The cagematch version would have been way cooler
Wong should call a division already! Smoke the Liberals out and see if they will vote for the government amendments.
OMG! Surely not even Fielding … ‘Fees that you made it up boerwar #4196 (previous thread). Or has Senator F defected to Scientology with a plan to flog greenhouses to Vader’s invading spaceships ?
What chances “now”of the bill geting passed by 3.45 today?
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/malcolm-turnbull-denies-being-asked-to-step-down-by-julie-bishop/story-e6frgczf-1225804570331
Boswell about to tell us that the tide also rises and then falls
PS: That’s greenhouse gases, tho with him, who’d know
Shows
Right now the rules in the senate are the same as those for a trial lawyer. Don’t ask any question you don’t already know the answer to.
Wong will make the call at 3.45 as agreed. Not before.
C’mon what way are libs going to go?
45 minutes, Shows!
Everywhere.
Here you go Gus, knock yourself out:
http://abcdigmusic.net.au/artist/machinations#
All in good time. We have an agreement and we are sticking to it to the letter. We’ll see what happens at 3.45.
And nowhere.
btw: Wong means either yellow or the King. I think we know which one our Penn is.
Scorpio, the vote can only be delayed if a motion to that effect is accepted by the President and passed.
Pity TheOz didn’t google the rules/ Standing orders
Hi All,
Very entertaining. Thanks for the commentary.
Odds for Hockey now $1.33, Abbot $4, Turnbull $5 at Sportingbet.
It does when he goes in the water, and then comes out.
Dey goin down!
OzPol
Yes, Fielding actually said ‘wasting greenhouse gases’.
It looks very much that Abbott has a little trouble with numbers or has been told that he is electoral poison and has offered a deal to install Skrek with the proviso that “all” Lib Senators vote to hold the ETS bill over and not have some, vote on it to let it through!
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/malcolm-turnbull-denies-being-asked-to-step-down-by-julie-bishop/story-e6frgczf-1225804570331
Speers is saying there won’t be a vote until monday or Tuesday or after Christmas even!
Forgot to include this bit!
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/malcolm-turnbull-denies-being-asked-to-step-down-by-julie-bishop/story-e6frgczf-1225804570331
A vote on what exactly?
Speers is saying there won’t be a vote until monday or Tuesday or after Christmas even!
Well, that settles it then.
It only requires one Lib Senator to vote with the Govt, Greens and X for the bill to go to a vote.
That would kill the send it to a comittee crud.
wRONg no: 11 for Speers?
35 minutes!
To be consistent, the Greens would want to get it into committee would not they? If that triggers a DD they would be happy with that as well.
I hope he’s wrong.
The Government should bring parliament back the day after the Copenhagen summit ends and get the opposition to vote for the bills again.
If they oppose it then, that would be another broken promise.
It only requires one Lib Senator to vote with the Govt
Don’t let us down Troeth.
35 times 60 seconds equals only 2100 eternities to go.
That means the vote will be in half an hour for sure
The Greens and X have said they want a vote – not a delay.
McDonald likes the amendments, so he’s now in favour of the bill?
Can anyone follow what he’s saying?
this is edge of your seat stuff…..I wish I was at home…and not with the constant interuptions of work
Mc Donald heading towards a motion to hold of the amendments to the Committee process!
30 minutes left!
This bill passing or not now comes down to Joe Hockey keeping his ambition in his pants. If his ego is big enough that he thinks he can make anything of the Liberal leadership under the current circumstances then he will make the deal with Abbott and become leader on the ‘compromise’ position of delaying the vote till after Copenhagen. At which time we can do this all again.
If he is sensible enough to know that his only genuine chance of ever forming government is to hold off and take the leadership after the next election he will hold his ground, let the CPRS legislation pass and take the leadership later.
Do we think his common sense is strong enough to trump his ego?
This goose in the senate banging on admits he hasn’t even read the bills.
Got to be a better method of getting legislation through.
Now they want to double check their own amendments?
No, he wants a Committee to evaluate the amendments!
rua
thanks.
Wong: “Welching on an agreement.” That doesn’t sound promising for the legislation.
OHOH. Penny says the Libs are welchers. Some silence for a change from the welcher’s side of the Senate.
I think the deal has already been done.
There will be no vote on the bill today!
Wong just confirming that now!
The Libs have squibbed on the deal!
Speers was only speculating. Skynews is now showing the Senate session LIVE. If there will be no vote, i dont think Skynews would show it LIVE.
Excellent point.
If the Liberal moderates want a sensible / middle of the road ETS, then this is the time to get it.
I just can’t fathom that the Liberals will commit suicide like this, wait for a D.D. election and then pass the exact same CPRS that they have just had a hernia over.
After watching senate question time this week, I have a lot of sympathy for Barack Obama trying to get healthcare reform through, let alone the Waxman-Markey bill. Our politicians really are much too germane in comparison!
I think Penny has it right! Not Sky News! No vote today!
Just to take a shoprt side-track from tension …
Abbott, Hockey, Pyne, Joyce (all Jesuit boys), Andrews (CBC), Robb (CBC), Malcolm Turnbull also an RC …
Where the bloody hell are the non-Catholics blokes?
So Chainsaw did all that negotiating for zilch, it will be back to the unamended bill.
Oh crap, now the entire Senate is impersonating a zoo.
did you see the photo of Joe Hockey leaving parliament squeezed into his wife’s yellow mini?
I couldn’t find a link, except this:
http://www.popartuk.com/g/l/lgpp30645+elephant-riding-a-blue-car-lifes-a-beach-by-bob-elsdale-poster.jpg
AllanM – I was watching that while slaving in a hot, hot kitchen. Joyce made it worse but then Bob Brown cooled me down with a terrific rant at Joyce about his ‘working families’ and the COALition For the first time in this debate I cheered Bob Brown.
The welchers are trying to welch some more.
There will be no vote today.
Why do you think that? All it takes is Labor Senators + 7 Lib Senators to guilotine debate and force a vote.
Sadly, I think you’re right scorpio. All bets are off it seems.
McDonald trying the reduce the Government’s Senate nos…
It won’t happen.
Serial points of order to interrupt the Minister on what may turn out to be the key vote putting speech. Tension is ticking up.
Abetz! First time I’ve seen him! Is that him? Surely it’s John Malkovitch? Probably just the poor quality of the APH feed.
What a tremendous human being that Abetz is!
What an inspiration! What a class act!
What a faarkwit!
Leader of the Government is in the Chamber and is seeking the call!
There will only be one vote today and that will be to refer the bill plus amendments to committee.
It will pass! End of story!
Pedantic note: The correct spelling appears to be ‘Macdonald’.
Given the new amendments on the table, I don’t think the moderate Liberal senators will have the guts to squelch them until they’ve had a chance to be reviewed in the party room.
Smart ploy on the hard-right part…
Evans and?
No time to be “Pedantic” today!
President Hogg would have been notified (almost certainly) of the time limit deal. Turnbull is still Opposition Leader; McFarlaine the deal maker. Can’t see either ratting on the guillotine now.
The rules are there in black, white with a touch of maroon on the Official Senate Website: http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/pubs/guides/briefno14.htm
And there’s no way in hell Coalition big-mouths and the MSM aren’t aware of them!
Labor attack on Hockey:
Decent bloke, but weak leader who is controlled by extremist climate change deniers.
Doesn’t look like that the bill will pass today. MacDonald is drawing it out. Are libs still working out how they are going to vote and trying to delay any vote until next week.
Ah, the Government tried to get a guillotine.
guillotine coming now though ?
Good political tactics from ALP – keep the climate issue well and truly stenching up the place as we go into Bradfield and Higgins by-elections. Doctors wives will be lining up to wack the Libs.
After about another 5 points of order from MacDonald…
No! It’s clear now that Abbott & Hockey have come to a deal to hold it over to committee!
It can be indefinitely stalled there as long as the anti mob have the numbers!
Yes, they even had the audacity to ask the Greens to support them.
Senate sits on Monday.
The bill will have no hope then because Hockey will be the leader on a denialist platform.
Monday
Unless the Greens abstain.
No vote until Monday…
Dave
I think that is the problem with a lot of the more complex issues and politicians who aren’t geniuses. The harder working ones in shadow cabinet are oftne too busy to read anything except an executive summary. The ones on the back bench are often too lazy or just plain don’t comprehend the legislation. They much prefer to be given a two page summary. I think there was a lot of that in the Howard era.
Its true of the science too. Very few CC skeptics would have actually read the Garnaut Report, except for a few cynical ones looking for gotchas. Most adults know less about science than their kids in high school, and politicians are no different.
Yep, it’s dead(the ETS).
I hope it’s all worth getting reduced to 30 seats next time, but the sceptics are in safe seats, they won’t go, it’s the moderates who’ll be chopped from the parliament!
Used to give Greens second preference but no more. I’m sick of Brown and Milne being such purists. A flawed ETS is better than no ETS but congrats Greens you’ve got yourselves 0 ETS.
If they have only got through 35 amendments in 3 days it’s going to take weeks to do the other 165!
That’s the funniest part…
Dario: My MP Ruddock would be one of the few in a safe seat who supports an ETS.
I’ll give “Mr Undead” credit for that!
+1
Second preference? I’m sure Bob Brown will cry when he hears this.
Loving Senator Evans!
What part of that don’t you understand?
Being so pedantic doesn’t cut it now!
Anti includes Libs, Nats, Greens, Mr X & Fielding.
Any combination of the above fit the bill as being “as long as the anti mob have the numbers”!
You still have it the wrong way round. Check http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/pubs/guides/briefno14.htm
If the Opposition agreed to the time limit – and, until yesterday, both sides agreed they did agree to 3.45pm Friday – then the guillotine is automatic! Unless Abetz & Minchin can convince a majority of the Senate to vote it down, the blade drops at the agreed time.
I wonder if this frenzied RW Liberal, MSM, shock-jock, mass emailing etc has but one main purpose – to stop today’s vote.
If the Senate passes the Bill, them it will be L*A*W soon after the Reps rubber-stamp it.
For CC deniers, today is the last – at least until the Libs regain control of both Houses – that any successful action can be taken against CC legislation. It’s today or never!
Not true, venerable Socrates.
Are you not aware of the Boswell Tide Report?
Odds for next Fed Election:
ALP $1.15
Coal $5.00
The Greens will get my fart.
This is completely wrong. Better re-read your standing orders.
Please enlighten me Aristotle….or maybe not!
[If they have only got through 35 amendments in 3 days it’s going to take weeks to do the other 165!}
Vera, tell that to Shows On for me please!
Keep in mind that if this doesn’t pass on Monday the government will no longer support the agreed amendments.
Which means if the Liberals decide to support the CPRS early next year, it will most likely be the harsher version with less industry compensation.
Am I correct that Jensen’s solution is we put a shadecloth over the sun?
Probably be the new environment policy under the new Liberal administration.
Evans better hurry up with the guillotine! lol;-)
I thought that was Tuckey?
Evan,
I was listening to the Senate discussions last night and Ron Boswell was up claiming that he’s been around boats all his life and he’s watched the tides, and he can’t see any difference.
So there, don’t worry about the IPCC report, the Boswell Tide Report has given its verdict!
He also called Obama, Senator Obama. Not only doesn’t he accept climate change, he doesn’t accept the result of the 2008 Presidential Election.
Minchin sitting there with a big grin on his face like lord muck.
and now the vile eric the hun is up on his hind legs
It is interesting how the Greens are getting off scot-free in the government’s tirade against the Liberal’s welching. A nudge-nudge-wink-wink on the upcoming by-elections, maybe?
Finns
If submerged at the time, that would be bubbles.
Why does erica always talk about the majority of austrian citizens
just asking
Aristotle: most of them have never accepted the legitimacy of Obama’s win, much like their Republican cousins.
I’ve tuned off Abetz, it’s Friday afternoon and I want to preserve some of my brain cells!
I live with two people who do vote 1 Greens and I’ll be working on them. My point is that for years and years I’ve voted one way and now I plan to vote another. How many others in the community will also change their vote because of this. The ETS is the first serious attempt to take environmental action in this country and many people will be disappointed that it fell over.
I wonder if he’ll still be grinning on election night as he watches seat after seat fall to the ALP?
It’s all over. Getting very messy now. I think that Rudd should go for a DD. The Libs are a farce.
dave @ 106: Nicknaming Eric Abtez after Atilla the Hun is a bit disingenuous. Attila actually won some battles…
He certainly couldn’t lend you any
Erica was heading for a prolapse but was saved by the President calling time.
I’ll be very pissed off with Hockey if he’s done a grubby deal to become leader!
Then again, it wouldn’t surprise me, sadly!
ltep:
If Kev goes for a DD early next year he gets a shorter 2nd term, doesn’t he? I’d let them wallow around in doodoo until August before the footy finals.
Entre Nous, the ETS is nothing more than a political game for the ALP. It has practically nothing to do with the environment, after all, why all the concessions to industries that should have these risks built in to their price already? Check out http://greensmps.org.au/content/whats-wrong-with-cprs-and-how-can-it-be-fixed for more info on how the ALP’s CPRS is nothing more than simply a cop-out.
I doubt you would make much inroads into your friends because the Greens have been clear on why they’re rejecting the ETS from the outset.
Damn…The Higgins byelection is going to kill us…Lib vs Green, vote has to go somewhere!!!!
I hope, hope, hope Turnbull holds his nerve:
I’d bet on August too!
Tasmanian state election in March 2010.
SA state election in March 2010.
Victorian state election in November 2010.
Rudd goes in August/September!
All that high expectation and anticipation; shattered!
I await the prophesies for Monday! Fire away folks!
Here’s mine; After quite a deal of nonsense debate, the Bill and Amendments is referred to a Senate Committee for further investigation!
Evan – I’ve never called Joe ‘avuncular’. I’ve always thought there was a sleazy rat inside. He’s not the nice character that big bear Kim was.
What a choice: Costello’s staffer vs Clive Hamilton!
He’d be a fool if he does. An even bigger fool than Turnbull when he knifed Nelson. What idiot takes the leadership in the first term in Opposition unless they realise they are there to just be a whipping boy?
I don’t think the average person who isn’t too interested in politics would even realise that the Greens were voting against the ETS.
They hide like cowards knowing the news will all be about the Coalition blocking the bill and they will escape the heat
http://www.smh.com.au/polls/politics/results.html
Emissions trading: Malcolm Turnbull v Liberal rebels
Whose stand do you back?
Turnbull – 69%
Abbott and the rebels – 31%
Total Votes: 12411
Who would have thought a byelection in Bridfield would be interesting!
Aristotle 95
My apology for 84; I probably haven’t learnt to appreciate in full measure the coalition grasp of science. Is that a known unknown? Ron Boswell is the Nationals’ answer to Carl Sagan. Wilson Tuckey is the Liberals’ answer to… what was the question again?
Keating’s line for the Senate has never been more apt. They still act like they won the last election. Someone should ask them how many millions Clive Palmer promised them to their next election campaign? I guess this is a victory for struggling billionaires everywhere.
Vera,
I wonder whether those same people would then assume that the Greens were voting for the bill and will be very surprised to find that they weren’t.
If Hockey had any sense, he’ll let Abbott take the leadership and then Joe can succeed him in 2011 after the bloodbath, assuming there’s much of a party left to lead.
Labor is probably regretting not running in Higgins now.
Should Malcolm Turnbull resign as Liberal leader?
Yes 49.45% (2272 votes)
No 50.55% (2323 votes)
In the Oz today.
deconst 120
Nothing the Greens can say will hide the fact that a 25% cap under this ETS actually means a -25% cap on Australia’s contributions to global pollution.
Even if bucketloads of money goes this way and that we would have had a big reduction in GHGs by 2020. And now we have lost that.
This is an interesting process. The Denialists have been flushed out of their caves. The spear carriers for King Coal have had to come out into the open. All that power all these years, hidden from view. It is the beginning of the end for them.
I’ve just lobbed a few emails off to Senators Abetz, Minchin etc and was wondering why we persist in the antiquated title of “the Honourable…..” when for many of them, honour is something they wouldn’t recognise if it bit them on the backside!
Vera – I think most people will take the name of the party itself to see where the Greens stand. I think that’s generally all most people have to inform them on the choice at the ballot box.
The shockjocks on “Liberal Radio” are celebrating, they and their listeners stopped “Rudd’s Tax”, the Liberals will once more go down the golden path of Howardism! All is right with the world!
entre nous
I hope Labor spends up big at the next election educating the uninformed
PM special on ABC local radio
Exactly Vera.
Good point Boerwar at #137
Well, we know that King Coal will be getting ready to shovel bucket loads of cash into the coffers of the Coalition. Stands to reason.
It’ll be the new plank of Queen Julia’s “Education Revolution”.
So after all that, have the conditions been met for a DD yet? Or do we wait for Monday?
Anyone else having trouble getting the Senate live feed @ http://webcast.aph.gov.au/livebroadcasting/htmlConditions.aspx?mediaURL=http://webcast.aph.gov.au/livebroadcasting/asx2/hms2v_100K.asx&CaptionFile=d:\inetpub\wwwroot\livebroadcasting\caption2.txt&type=1 ?
King Coal and his buckets of cash didn’t do much for the LNP in QLD!
Benji
If my reading is correct the Government has agreed to continue the legislative process of the Bill, so it cannot have been said to be rejected.
I’m assuming that it can only be referred to committee with the support of the Greens? What would be in it for the Greens? Surley a DD would give them a chance to hold the BoP in their own right. And if the Libs were so sure that there was massive electoral support for thier CC/ETS stance then they would surely welcome an election sooner rather than later.
*goes off to rejoin the real world*
Oh, it’s over?
Macfarlane convinced Turnbull still has the numbers.
Chainsaw still reckons Turnbull has the numbers.
I have been called, stupid, wrong, uninformed and worse on numerous occasions so far today!
Strangely in my last few posts those statements have gone somewhat quiet!
Passing strange that there has so far, been no apologies for that appear here either!
I wonder why? Could it be embarrassment or a degree of arrogance on the part of some here?
In the Daily Terror : Do you Believe that Climate Change is really happening?
Yes:38.94% (780 votes)
No: 61.06% (1241 votes)
Just says a lot about readership I guess.
Sky says the senators supporting the deal were absent from the chamber.
Hamish Coffee
small numbers
Aristotle
If MacFarlane and Turnbull do have the numbers and can carry it off just imagine the carry-on from the wingnuts then!
Turnbull seems to be saying that the Liberals have a choice, they can have him as the leader, and that means sticking to the CPRS deal. OR, they they can break the CPRS deal and let Tony Abbott lead the Liberal party.
Turnbull seems to be doing a very good job of keeping out Hockey as the compromise candidate. Turnbull won’t let Hockey be leader who breaks the CPRS deal. If the nutcases are going to demand the deal be broken, then the nutcases can make Abbott lead the party.
presser with julia on sky coming up
150
The Constitution does not say reject. It says “fail to pass”.
Julia is holding a presser soon
Julia having a press conference shortly on Sky
Scorpio
My guillotine ref was to William, since some ratter had posted the morgan poll
Tho I thought that the senate would vote today,the fibs pulled out at the last minute.
apols anyway
OH emailed member yesterday and got questionnaire on ETS back today.
The poll has been stacked, it was 70/30 the other way this morning.
OK, is this a DD trigger?
Gillard’s having a presser shortly
Speers is talking up the possibility of a DD very soon
Hmm…..
Does this mean he’s got twice as many?
Tom @ 163, I asked Antony about “fails to pass” as it refers to CPRS:
COMMENT: Failure to pass was the basis of the 1951 double dissolution, but that was delay that had gone on for some time and the Senate had failed to act in a way that could be viewed as considering the legislation. What Mr Abbott and Senator Minchin said yesterday was carefully crafted, stating the amendments were major, there had been strong reaction from industry and that there was a need for a Senate Committee to review the amendments before consideration. They were saying this is a not a delay by the Senate but the following of normal procedure which cannot be inferred as delay.
No.
Julia has just roped in Hockey with Turnbull.
Finns,
Julia doesn’t tend to take prisoners. A smart move to rope Joe in.
Gillard quotes Turnbull, genius!
Is it possible that Hockey *wants* Turnbull to stay on so that he doesn’t have to contest himself and end up with a leadership he doesn’t want? If Abbott wins uncontested it’ll look like Hockey didn’t have the nerve, if Malcolm stands and loses Hockey can say he was just being loyal to the leader. If Turnbull also favours this view it might explain why he is staying on despite his obvious unpopularity.
Love Julia!
Give em hell!
If they are so convinced they are on a winner, why fear a DD election?
How good does Julia look and sound. What a couple of terrific women up there now.
So…. for those playing at home.
What just happened today. Aka, what happens to ETS and what happens to Turnbull
Well it’s all over. The mad right have won. What happens to the Liberals now is any ones guess.
ShowsOn @ 172
OK, but Speers was saying that this a DD trigger as it could be seen to be a rejection, but I will back your opinion over Speers
Gillard’s giving Turnbull a rap.
This is just surreal….
EHS has started – Eliminate Hockey Scheme. The Govt is determined that Abbott should be the LOTO.
How long until the loony right start organizing “tea parties” around the country?
If it doesn’t pass next week the Government won’t be bound by the amendments agreed to this week.
That would mean forcing the Liberals to vote on the unamended version of the bill, which the Liberals won’t support.
Conquered by the sceptics and deniers
Classic
But to go to a committee the lib-nats would need the support of the Greens?
Gusface,
Thanks for that! I can’t believe some of the stuff that was directed at me this afternoon by people that i previously had a high degree of respect for.
Unfortunately, that was badly misplaced! There was “no” respect shown to me!
Anyone can do a cut and paste from Senate procedures. Even me!
Post the question to the organiser’s blog:
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/
Because you were wrong
Hamish Coffee 157: never trust an online poll. It’s been pharyngulated (though not by PZ Myers).
Speers has no idea what he is talking about, as usual
Libs + Nats + Fielding would be enough.
Who knows what Fielding will do.
Most of what he says seems to be speculation.
Exactly, and there’s your DD trigger
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ApT9ZZs5vM
I wish we had the old Democrats back…
But he’ll never admit it!
He usually just reads what comes in on his blackberry from his ‘sources’. It’s hardly surprising that most of it is tosh.
Gillard sounded pretty tough on their view. Almost election like….
Hmm….I’m smellin something here.
Who’s more unreliable?
Speers or Bob?
“Britney” is still on good terms with the Rodent, right? He’d get a lot of his so-called intelligence from that area.
You said that before and I asked you to show where I was!
I am still waiting, so if you can show that, I would much appreciate you doing so.
Otherwise an apology would be welcome and accepted graciously!
You know you can do it!
Bummer, no 7.30 report on Fridays…
And I told you that others had already shown you where, and you ignored it. Finished with you now.
abcmarkscott PM: regular times on RN, Local Radio. Special 7.30 Report tonight. Also Aust Story special on Nigel Brennan ABC1 at 8pm
There’s no way the Government will go to an election before next July. They don’t want to be restricted to 2 years for their 2nd term.
There is a special 7:30 report tonight.
I can’t believe the ALP wouldn’t capitalise on this opportunity to demolish their opponents, future half-senate election or not. I fully expect the ALP to respond to the WA Lib’s amendments by calling the whole deal off and putting the unamended senate bill up on Monday, granting them the DD trigger which they will pull ASAP.
I heard an advert on NewsRadio saying there will be a special episode of 7:30 Report tonight.
SWEEEEEEEEEEEEET!!!!!
LOL! Notice how Senator Wong let the Deputy P.M. leave the room first?
Gillard has successfully roped in Hockey on the support for the CPRS. If he reneges on the deal, his credibility will be in tattered.
Who do you trust in bring in the CPRS?
Exactly! Because then the line would be that Hockey was willing to say and do anything to get the leadership.
Gillard is a brilliant politician.
So brave man, you think you can just leave it at that!
As events turned out today, those “others” you quote have been proven “wrong” themselves!
It puts you in a pretty bad position basing an argument on statements from others that are incorrect!
It’s past time for “you” to put up or don’t you have the guts or the “ability” to go back through the last thread and show all the readers and your fellow posters that you really can do it instead of just sprouting the same single line sentence?
And you’d be right to do so, Sireggo. Speers has been wrong so often this week. He jumps the gun.
Evan, Yes Talkback radio has just gine entirely loopy. Chris Smith on 2GB is hosting a poll on preferred leader – Last I heard was 93% Abbott and 7% Hockey, and of course they are talking this up big – I would love to direct them to the Centrebet Odds posted earlier which had Abbott at long odds and Joe the overwhelming favorite ($1.33, I think)…This really, cracks me up because Smith is banging on that their (2GB’s) audience/callers/e-mailers represent the broader community…based on the disparity between the 2GB phone poll results and the Centrbet Odds, it seems quite obvious that 2GB’s audience represent only the far right conservative and rusted ons…a very small but noisy subset of the broader community…Oh and if I hear “people power” once more I will throw the radio at the wall.
I move that scorpio move on.
Have to agree with you on this!
As I said previously, mid September!
It can’t be a D.D. trigger because the Senate hasn’t even voted on it, or they haven’t sent it to a committee with a realistic time line for it to return to the Senate for debate.
For example if the Senate said that a Senate committee needs to consider the amendments, then that would be a regular use of the Senate (but will be construed by Labor as a breaking of the agreement with the Liberals).
If the Senate said that the bills need to be sent to a committee never to return, then THAT could be construed as “failure to pass”.
The problem for the Liberals is this. If they vote on Monday to send the amendments to a Senate committee for analysis. The Government may say that that means the deal is broken and that they will no longer vote for the amendments. So the opposition would then have to decide whether or not to vote for the ORIGINAL bill! If they don’t pass it, the government gets a D.D. trigger.
If they have the D.D. trigger and the Liberals are in disarray, then they could go on July 3rd. That is the absolutely earliest date to avoid the limiting of their 2nd term.
What has changed? The CPRS legislation is still before the Senate, Turnbull is still “Dear Leader”. Have the Trogs gone off half cocked?
Thanks for the vote of confidence! I know when I am not wanted!
But I can’t see for the like of me, that people can get so personal to someone who considers he has a right to express an opinion!
Why is my opinion infer to others or better still, why is it that others opinions are right even when they may be wrong and mine wrong even if it might be right?
I may be wrong with this as I am often told I am!
Thanks again!
I didn’t mean ‘go away’. I just meant forget about it and post about different things.
I really hope that Abbott gets up… Then we can call the Libs the “Time Warp Party”…”Its a jump to the left…and a step to the right”….I do appreciate that Nelson-Turnbull-Abbott would be more like “…”Its a step to the left…and a jump to the right”….but hey close enough
If Hockey takes the leadership and his stance to ETS is the same as Turnbull’s then how can Minchin/Abbott continue to claim with straight faces that this whole fiasco is about policy and not leadership? It is a farce.
The trogs POSSIBLY have a deal to install Hockey as leader, and send the CPRS off to a Senate committee.
HOPEFULLY Turnbull will hold firm and force the leadership contest to be Turnbull V Abbott. In other words, if the deniers really want to drop the agreement with Labor they will need to elect an unelectable denier as leader and thus consign themselves to electoral oblivion.
I think you were right the first time. I try to contribute and thought I was but there certainly are more important things that I “should” be doing like clean the windows!
I’ll leave you to it!
Agree ShowsOn. Be brave Malcolm, and at least go down a martyr. This approach will also leave Hockey to clean up the Mad Monk mess after election 2010/2011.
They were facing electoral oblivion anyway. What comes after oblivion?
http://twitter.com/LEIGHSALES
Last night Ciobo was in the partyroom when Turnbull made his speech, so I guess he is behind him until the end.
livion?
If it is Abbott probably purgatory followed by limbo followed by a Young Liberals meeting.
A nice long nap?
More hijack:
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/samanthamaiden/index.php
It’s like penultimate and ultimate.
I hereby preface my previous remarks with IF Rudd has a DD trigger over the ETS soon, he should use it. Whether he gets the trigger next week or in February is beside the point. He shouldn’t wait till September, as that will make it look like the whole ETS was a tactic, and that will cost Labor votes.
It would also give mental health professionals seven more months to work on the Liberal MPs, which might reduce one of Labor’s comparative advantages.
If the double dissolution is now, then the ALP can leverage maximum damage on the Liberals especially with Copenhagen. The certainty of getting reelected in January may be better than the uncertainty of getting reelected in September.
There are cases for and against a snap DD. I see it as a bird in the hand vs two in the bush scenario.
It is strange, that most of the denialist Libs are staunch proud Catholics willing to do the churches bidding on many issues that effect family life yet ignore the Vatican on climate change. Here is some of what the Holy see’s permanent observer at the U.N. has to say; ” The interconnections become even stronger when we consider that, ultimately, the earth is our common heritage and we have a grave and far-reaching responsibility to ourselves and to future generations for the actions we are due to take here. It should be added that the need for joint action at the international level does not lessen the responsibility of individual states.
Mr. Chairman, the question of energy is rapidly becoming one of the key questions of the entire international agenda, as all of us struggle to assemble a common, global, long-term energy strategy, capable of satisfying legitimate short- and medium-term energy requirements, ensuring energy security, protecting human health and the environment, and establishing precise commitments to address the question of climate change.
The scientific evidence for global warming and for humanity’s role in the increase of greenhouse gasses becomes ever more unimpeachable, as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change findings are going to suggest; and such activity has a profound relevance, not just for the environment, but in ethical, economic, social and political terms as well. The consequences of climate change are being felt not only in the environment, but in the entire socioeconomic system and, as seen in the findings of numerous reports already available, they will impact first and foremost the poorest and weakest who, even if they are among the least responsible for global warming, are the most vulnerable because they have limited resources or live in areas at greater risk. We need only think of the small island developing states as one example among many. Many of the most vulnerable societies, already facing energy problems, rely upon agriculture — the very sector most likely to suffer from climatic shifts”. It certainly looks like they are pretty selective which church teachings activates them. If only climate change could linked to womens reproductive organs.
I reckon $3 – something for Turnbull ain’t too bad. I still feel the denialists when it comes to breaking point do it. Turnbull would only go when pushed. Hockey will not contest Turnbull.
My gut feeling anyway.
Antony Green:
Being a staunch Catholic and thinking critically about evidence don’t seem to go together.
Yes, but not before July 3rd.
How much have we heard from shadow treasurer Hockey since he assumed the position? I think most would have forgotten his place in shadow cabinet by now.
Turnbull wants to delay the leadership spill to Tuesday instead of Monday!
http://twitter.com/samanthamaiden
INTERESTING!
Turnbull seems to be trying everything to ensure the amended CPRS gets through before he loses his leadership!
Tony Abbott is going to have to go to the Governor General to ask her to sack Turnbull.
After a bex and a good lie down, the “sane” Libs may feel differently after the weekend.
Hockey will wimp it – Dutton as deputy dawg – ha.
I think Rudd really has a mandate for this. Rudd and Howard both took an ETS to the last election, then the Libs said no only if you adopt our amendments, now the leadership is getting rolled by the party for supporting a Liberal-amended ETS.
If that’s not the Senate frustrating the government, I don’t know what is. Bring on a DD!
I’ve been suspecting that. He’s stuffed, he just wants to get the CPRS through now.
He’s a good man in many ways. He’s got conviction, he supports a CPRS, he supports a republic, he’s very liberal on gay rights, he’s very liberal indeed. He’s just too liberal on economic matters to fit in to Labor, not to mention way too independent to ever agree to vote with the party 100% of the time.
LOL! So why are the Greens opposing it!?
Ah, well; the Libs broke the time deal, the “for” Libs squibbed: so we’re all back on Monday.
Will it pass then? Who can say. Probably not.
Will Rudd call a DD over CC legislation if it doesn’t? I think he’ll go back into negotiations and try to reach agreement. On Midday Report, Brown seemed to indicate he wants to negotiate now. I guess any CC legislation is better than none. Meanwhile, the party pollsters, focus groups etc will be on overtime. If no agreed post-Copenhagen legislation passes, Rudd might go for a Half-Senate in July-Aug. If the “blew a black hole in the Budget” bills are re-presented and not passed, he would have a handy argument, based on the cost to the budget etc etc, for a pre-budget DD. He might go early – Aug/early Sept. But there’s always been a “Kevin Eleven” slogan around, so early March 1911. In the lap of the gods & party polling, I guess. Whatever the time, the ALP, its ad agencies and spin doctors are rubbing their hands in anticipation.
I may be wrong, but I doubt any Libs will defect to the cross-benches, unless there’s a NeoGrouper-TradLiberal split; but there may be more resignations. Ian McFarlane won’t defect (according to a few Groom sources I contacted) but might retire if offered a stimulating job relevant to his interests. This is his 4th term; a successor was being groomed (no pun intended) but currently isn’t tracking well locally. A practical farmer, McF also held senior managerial positions in QGA, Grains Council & NFF http://www.abc.net.au/tv/qanda/mp-profiles/groo.htm With the current negotiations behind him, he might be enticed by a CC and Ag sort of Post-Copenhagen job. He’ sure struck up a good rapport with Penny (wicked sense of humour, says rumour).
Meanwhile, enervating heat & humidity have awakened gardenias & star jasmine, and the smoky air’s thick with their scent. Almost like something out of a novel!
I’ll be doing all in my power as a member to do this and ensure the Greens are consigned to the compost heap where they belong, and I hope that the voters of Willagee remember that when casting their vote tomorrow.
Rudd has a mandate for action on climate change, specifically a CPRS. You can’t argue he has a mandate for his specific model, when he’s already changed it from what he proposed. The Greens can’t pass it without Fielding if the Libs won’t vote for it, so they have no reason to agree. The Democrats would have done the same in these circumstances.
I don’t think that was Billy’s point. Rational thinking is academic in this and the other examples of the Liberal papal cheer-squad’s policy activism. The point is normally they blindly follow Rome. That suggests that some other non-spiritual force may be at play, such as Clive Palmer’s cash.
I say again it would be very interesting to ask how much he has donated to the coalition lately. One of the many regrettable features of our donation system is that we usually don’t get such information till its too late (after the election). Plimer, Carter and the other denialist speakers have been very active lately, so some party(s) must be bankrolling them all.
Oh I getcha, he has A mandate for A CPRS but not THE mandate for THE CPRS!
It’s just a widdle mwandate, not a bwig mwandate.
Tony Wright in the Age is talking crud, Somlyay is going nowhere. Dutton has buckleys of being preselected in Fairfax.
How can he have a mandate for THE CPRS if it’s not what he took to the last election…………?
Can a Green please explain to me why you are so confident of getting the balance of power in the Senate at the next election? This is a fair dinkum question.
Ha. If your anti-Greens campaign is as effective on the general population as your posts here I’m sure we have nothing to worry about
I assure you – the vast majority of Greens supporters are already against the ETS – we lost any faith in Rudd, Wong & Garrett when the pathetic ‘targets’ were set.
You guys have had 2 years to advance your Climate Change legislative agenda. And just look how effective you’ve been thus far. Impressive. Not.
What happened to the guillotine? Did Labor wimp out on using it?
They’re talking about the chaos on Radio National now:
http://www.abc.net.au/streaming/RN.asx
They couldn’t get support for it.
Windies not doing to well either 4/73.
I think our Julia was using a cricket tactic earlier on the sloppy one, ie sledging a possible incoming opposition captain – well deserved in this instance, of course
If the Liberals keep this up Labor may have a majority in their own right.
http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSSYD287505
Which party is Turnbull with again?
Did all the Libs refuse to put it to a vote or weren’t they asked?
badseed
Que? was your post in answer to my question?
Antony Green and William Bowe say a Green BOP is likely after the next election. Based on the Green vote either maintaining or having lifted since the last election, we are set for a sole Green BOP.
Chainsaw is spilling his guts at the moment on RN
BK,you are right on regarding critical thinking,it is the utter hypocrisy involved when a politicians select which elements of church dogma they will inflict on public policy. Abbott takes his riding instructions from right wing warrior and climate change denier Cardinal Pell. The church should butt out of matters of state.
Thank you Bob 1234
There is no way Labor would get ~50% of the primary Senate vote in an election. The Green vote is holding up as ever, so there’s ~10% from the left already not voting ALP.
Thanks Billy.
Whenever Geo Pell sticks his nose into things my blood boils!
I’ve hit a raw nerve haven’t I’ve exposed the Willagee candidate as a vapid airhead who cannot string two words together without soundin like a 12 yr old speaking at a school assembly and a campaign where a so called interview with a like minded journalist who was silly enough to leave the unedited version on his server – really smart that.
And the public expect you to be tgreated seriously when your videos look like something a bunch of school kids would produce.
gimme a break.
Labor wouldn’t be picking up votes from the Left, it would be getting a heap of votes from Liberals who won’t support a rabble.
It’s looking more likely that Labor will have a choice of passing legislation with Liberal, Greens, *or* cross-bench support based on how up-in-the-air the Liberal party is.
entre – not a specific response to your question. More a statement to those here out to ‘educate’ the public about the ‘green menace’.
True. He had no targets, let alone details of what would be in the ETS. And let’s face it, it got chopped to bits by the Libs anyway. There was no mandate for this ETS.
for completeness sake I forgot to include the first part of badseed’s quote.
Boy do we need that edit function.
He emerges integrity intact in all of this. Brandis to date appears to have done well too.
Turnbull has shown them all he has balls.
The less said of the rest the better. It is pretty easy to despise the coalition. Particularly if you view them through the prism of 1975, which I do.
BTW All Ords down almost 3%. Dow Jones futures looking ugly at 255 points down so far at least. The Dubai stuff etc.
It’s unclear exactly what happened. Evans mentioned he went around the chamber and asked for a system to put a time limit on the debate on the amendments but couldn’t get support.
It’s possible that the pro-CPRS Liberals wouldn’t commit because they will receive a backlash if Abbott becomes leader.
Andrew Bolt sounding like a massive nutcase on Radio National.
The point is that if you’re expecting the result to be ~10% Green and ~50% Labor with the coalition, minor parties and independents scramblin for the remaining 40%, you’ve got another thing coming.
We’re not about to experience something greater than http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_federal_election,_1943 (ignore the Senate seat numbers, different system, and remember most Green votes would be Labor if there was no alternative left party)
Thanks Dio
Bolta admits that the Liberals will lose an election on a climate denial platform.
Labor will get 3 Senators from each state and one in the territories. The Libs/Nats will get two and the other in the territories.
That leaves 6 up for grabs, Milne will win in Tasmania, that leaves 5.
Anyone who says they are certain of the way those 5 will go are deranged.
Sounds like Evans wimped out.
What demographics would flock to a party led by Abbott?
And which would run away?
Andrew Bolt:
He then goes on to ignore the science!
Bolt worked with Labor on two election campaigns?!?!??!?!?!
Were they ones they lost?
True, he endorsed Keating in 1993.
Wow with a ‘helper’ like Bolt it’s no wonder the ALP were out of government for so ong
Not trying to be rude to you ShowsOn but I couldn’t give a …. what Bolt thinks about anything even if it is contrary to his usual crap.
He didn’t have the numbers. What do you suggest he should’ve done?
Socrates, I agree Palmer is a malign influence, so to is Pell. Palmer I can understand,he is just a greedy tosser,Pell is a blackhearted hypocrite who should stick to selling higher places in heaven to the unworthy.
RN – Bob Brown is great
Billy,
Your well-directed invective towards Pell is much appreciated.
What load of hogwash – all of this newly discovered respect for Turnbull!!
He’s just trying to scrape out anything he can to pretend that he’s the hero of the day, from the barrel he built for himself!!
He negotiated with his Party and they all made it quite clear that all they agreed to was for there to be “negotiation – and that’s all”. Then he went on to proclaim, time and again, that the Libs were negotiating “in good faith”, when everyone (including the Government) must have known that he had pushed as far as he could, and managed only to achieve agreement for “negotiation”, but not a vote for CPRS!
He thought he could pull it off and the Government, who did negotiate “in good faith” made a deal on that basis. So he’s not only bungled it’s passage in his own Party, but in the Senate too! To suggest that he’s standing by his principles and sticking to his commitments is way off the mark. His ambition led him to take the risk of taking a position within his Party and it seems to have been the wrong one.
Of course, Senators Wong and Evans still have every right to go ahead and accuse the Libs of welsching out of the deal. Irrespective of what Turnball got agreement for, the other Libs played along anyway, and were today even making out they they were the ones who wanted to “get on” with the vote, while Penny Wong was “fillibustering”!!!
He is making a terrible mistake though, he is acting as if he is relevant.
He’s attacking the coalition much better than Labor does
Aww, his interview is finished
Can’t someone come out and expose Bolt for what he is. He’s been watching too much Glen Beck.
He should have put the vote to a vote and asked for the Libs to keep their side of the bargain. He could have seen whether he got 7 Libs to support it.
I don’t know which is more dead; the ETS or Turnbull.
Oh no, ABC bias! How dare they ask a believer if climate change is their number 1 issue!!!
The ABC is not biased.
Ooooh, Antony Green on RN.
Both.
BK and Billy,
I absolutely agree!
And St Bob and Mother Milne were amongst the Pallbearers.
Democracy in action, Frank.
Billy & IMOHO
With the release of the report yesterday about the institutionalised cover-up and protection of child sex abuse by Catholic office bearers on Ireland Pell and his ilk should hide their heads in shame and never be heard again.
They did the opposite of Meg Lees and stuck to their principles. At no time has the Green vote dropped. I don’t think anyone that cares doesn’t know the Greens don’t support the Rudd ETS.
Pell’s opinion has no greater standing than yours or mine Bob, and just because he’s in the senior ranks of God Botherers doesn’t give him any entitlement to advocate for or on behalf of anybody! We do live in a Democracy! As to ABC bias – your point is???
Pell? I never talked about him.
ABC bias – not directed at you.
Andrew Bolt worked for Senator Bob Collins, I believe, in the late 1980s.
Ruawake, is your point at #284 that we can’t say for certain the Greens would have the BOP after a half-Senate election? Because if as you say Labor wins three seats in every state and Christine Milne is also a certainty, that woulld give Labor 36 seats and the Greens four, and thus the balance of power.
William,
did you get my email re Willagee ?
ANYONE LISTENING TO RN???
Antony Green says the Greens WILL hold the BOP after the next election assuming Labor retain government!!!!
*moons the lot of the CLLRs*
For our own reasons, I think we’ll all look forward to the Greens holding the BOP
Labor could win some of the 5 in doubt.
Update
http://www.smh.com.au/polls/politics/results.html
Reader Poll
Emissions trading: Malcolm Turnbull v Liberal rebels
Whose stand do you back?
Turnbull – 69%
Abbott and the rebels – 31%
Total Votes: 14368
Ahhhh, the Green ascendency
May they live long and prosper like the Democrats did. And may another viable progressive minor party prosper when the Greens are no longer.
Keep the Labor Right bastards to account. They deserted the real Labor.
No I didn’t, Frank, and I’ve no idea why that would be.
Whoops! Humble apologies Bob. My mistake.
Agree wholeheatedly with BK though. I was listening to an interview on BBC last night about this report. The interviewee ( a victim) was reminding us that “in those days” in Ireland, the Catholic church was even more powerful than the Government! He’d felt so confused because the Government and the church were dictating the rules and were the forces of good, so what was happening to him, he rationalised, was because he was of “the forces of evil”. Even after 3 years when he turned 17, he knew no-one would or could accept what had happened to him because it wasn’t within the realms of belief for most Irish people, at that time.
Ah. Theoretically possible, I suppose.
read posts from here onwards.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/09/25/willagee-by-election/comment-page-15/#comment-360031
Actually it started from here:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/09/25/willagee-by-election/comment-page-14/#comment-359984
Apologies for hijacking tbe thread.
Yes Bob, it’s good to see. ALP has shifted to centre-right while the Libs have shifted to nutjob right. One only needs to look what Peter Garrett has done with 2 years of government to see what a stranglehold the ALP Right Ascendancy has on this country.
The extra public monetary support from the increased electoral vote will help the Greens nuance their message further. May the Greens deliver well-considered review of legislation for the Australian people!
Diogenes,
All the Libs had been told to support a motion to defer the Bill and Amendments to Committee scrutiny!
There was “no way” a motion to guillotine debate and bring on a vote for the Bill plus amendments would have passed!
All Evans could do was express his disgust at the Libs for going back on the agreement to allow a vote on the Bill. The Senate was then adjourned until 9.30am Monday!
Anyone else think Hamilton has a chance in Higgins after all this chaos? Especially if Hockey or Abbott end up with the leadership.
Which means if the CPRS goes through, the Abbot/hockey spill will be as dead as a dodo.
Totally ballsalicious move from Turnbull.
Frank
They’re saying everyone except Turnbull is turning up at a meeting at 9am on Monday.
He starting losing it when Howard lost, and has been losing more & more as time goes on! And day now, I expect him to start channelling Tom Cruise on Oprah!
Perhaps he’s started to realise he & his NewsLtd/ Shock-jock mates might just have buggered the Liberal’s electoral prospects way beyond 2013. OTOH, he might be a secret ALP double agent helping them tear themselves apart.
Myself, I’d make sure the sofa was expendable.
I think you’re on to something. He seems to have the type of brain fry that Scientologists suffer from. You know, repeating the same thing over and over.
Dewgong, I don’t think anyone really has any idea at this point how all this turmoil will affect the outcomes of the by-elections.
I can tell you this much: The ALP will take Clive Hamilton winning Higgins as grounds alone to call a DD! As much for the needling that Clive will do in the lower house as for the sign that the Libs are critically weak! His chances have been constantly pooped on by the commentariat and I find that frustrating.
Diog, your slip is showing again. What about have ago at the other side who wasnt honoring the deal. You look good along side Abbott and Minchin.
You’ve got to admire Turnball for his balls! If he’s going, the bastards will have to blast him out! And he owes the Liberals no favours!
If the Libs preference Labor higher than the Greens, which I assume they will. Then it is possible that Labor will get a 4th senator in Vic and NSW. That would give them 38 leaving X with the BoP.
It all depends on how high the Labor vote is. But it is not impossible.
Yep. I think he is pretty reconciled to whatever happens. If he is rolled so be it. He will have stuck to his guns. I don’t like him but give him his dues.
After that, turnbull can get on with his life. He has heaps of options, including staying around to *return a few favours*.
Dewgong,
A high profile centre-right Independent in each seat would probably give the Liberal candidates a real good fright especially if they got a good flow of preferences!
This is my opinion only and may be wrong as I am often told I am wrong even when I am not wrong, so take it on at your peril. Others here give opinion that is “always” right so it might be better to listen to them!
Cheers, Scorpio, the wrongster!
Finns
It was never put to a vote. We’ll never know if they would have kept their side of the bargain or not.
Yes I think this is misplaced. I have a great deal of respect for his actions and guts he has shown recently in staying his course. But you have to remember he would do exactly the same if he was arguing over a carton of milk, Ute-gate, lollies in the play ground, or if he had chosen the other side of the debate. You respect would turn to horror when his now obvious lack of judgement and respect for decency came into play on other issues.
What job will Rudd offer Turnball, or an inducement to switch parties?
Turnbull doesn’t deserve any admiration for the position he is taking, or he has found himself in. IMOHO he has never acted (or reacted) with any other ambition in mind than to become PM – in whatever way he can. This time he blew it and now he’s trying to portray himself as someone who has stood on principle – difficult to achieve when you don’t have any!
An Aussie Republic, Mk II of course
This time it will get up. Conservatives in total disarray. Icing on the cake, howard still alive to see it, sophie tearing her hair out and wailing.
Maybe a clause stating it comes into effect upon the conclusion of the current queen’s reign.
This time it will get up. Conservatives in total disarray. Icing on the cake, howard still alive to see it, sophie tearing her hair out and wailing.
You have just described heaven.
Turnbull has a piece on the Punch
http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/we-are-at-a-turning-point-in-liberal-party-history/
Frank Calabrese,
Frank, I may be wrong, people keep telling me I am even when I’m not but, in my opinion and given the facts now before us, the spill meeting has been set for 9.00 am Monday and the Senate resumes at 9.30 am Monday!
Therefore it is more than possible that there will be a new Liberal Leader prior to the Senate start up time and if the deal that I posted earlier in the thread is on, then there will be a motion to refer it to Senate Committee for further investigation and perusal!
Only my opinion mind!
scorpio
The spill meeting will be Tuesday.
One piece of good news: 2GB will be without one of its major right wing nutjob shockjocks. Jason Morrison, Alan Jones’s heir apparent, is taking the rest of the year off!
Diogenes,
You missed my post earlier. They were instructed that the deal was off by the challenger camp of Shrek, Abbott etc!
The Liberal party will be seen as cheats and liars for welching on the deal they had made, and if they fail to pass on Monday in terms of their current agreement with the Govt they will be seen as dishonest, and traitors to the country and the global effort to help the planet.
I guess the Minchins, Erica’s of this world and their close supporters will try to say it didn’t get to a vote yet so how do you know. But most of the Australian people are not stupid enough to fall to such a deception.
Diogenes,
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/11/27/morgan-58-5-41-5/comment-page-7/#comment-362855
Turnbull may come out of this a failure but smelling like roses. If he remains in the party he can become a major destabilising influence to the nutjobs. And he may think he has a chance again to take over, prior to the next election if the Libs fortunes plummet as they might and for fear survival grips them.
John Howard described as a *creature* from outer space by GW Bush !
http://www.smh.com.au/world/bush-felt-blair-was-soulmate-20091127-juxq.html
And howard thought they were *mates*
Scorpio. Enough already. We take your point.
I still assert that earlier you were saying things that showed a misunderstanding of the senate process.
However … your call earlier in the day that there would be no vote did indeed come to pass and your undeniable correctness on this point is freely acknowledged.
So, in the name of humanity, enough with the self flagellation already.
Yep, he is saying that if you want to break the CPRS deal you first have to get rid of him and run the risk of electing Abbott instead of Hockey.
A red nose and some white face paint…and Joe becomes a ready source of entertainment.
Ok, I am wRONg! It was though reported in a number of forums as being Monday!
I am sure it is like just about everything else to do with this chaos, fluid and subject to change at any moment.
Especially if Turnbull changes his mind re standing down.
I would think that the Abbott/Shrek camp are trying to work out the best way to go. It seems apparent from all the polling going on at present that Abbott overestimated the level of support for totally opposing an ETS and so they are rearranging their strategy on the run!
Omo, though!
Sorry I can’t provide any proof, have shut down a number of tabs. One here!
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/malcolm-turnbull-denies-being-asked-to-step-down-by-julie-bishop/story-e6frgczf-1225804570331
Come on Diog, you have more intelligence than that or am i wRONg?
If the Magnificent 7 of the Liberals were there, the Govt would be in like Finn.
Forces of Denial want it to be Monday, i.e. before the CPRS is voted on.
Sensiliberals want it to be Tuesday, i.e. after CPRS is voted on.
You mean like this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_pb5JBd8V_0
Finns
They never tested it, did they? It’s one thing to have a private chat and another to make them do it publicly.
We’ll never know if there were a Magnificent 7 or not.
scorpio
I agree, things are fluid and moving very fast. I think the Press Gallery “experts” have as much of a clue as to what is happening as we polly bludgers. ie Not very much.
This is a no lose situation for Rudd.
Turnbull has been stabbed a hundred times, the Liberals appear like a rabble in bitter chaos. And they have blocked something the whole world is talking about, China and the USA have made announcements on, Rudd is talking about right now with Obama and will be world focus on and after Copenhagen.
They appear like some small enclave insisting the world is flat and smoking has nothing to do with cancer. And on top of that they have shot their credibility to shreds on just about every issue now. Their next dog whistle on boats and AS will be mostly ignored.
Eventually Australia will have something in place and it is likely to be harder than what is on the table now. Big business should be fuming at the Liberal Party as they must know what is coming later. The Coal lobby is particularly stupid if they are encouraging Barnyards idiocy because it aint gonna be better for them later.
I went right back through that thread and still have the relevant pages up in tabs. I can easily put up the first couple of posts that a considerable number of people jumped on a bandwagon to attack and all their posts.
They had absolutely “no” better information than I had yet I was subjected to a tag team dose of absolute cr#p treatment.
I have no confidence that “every comment” I make from here on will not be subjected to the same treatment so I have to qualify “every comment” I wish to make now.
This statement may be wrong and is only my opinion for what it is worth!
Exactly! On Monday the TV footage will be Rudd shaking hands with Obama and the White House and talking about climate change policy.
Meanwhile, back in Liberal land, they possibly won’t even have settled their leadership issues.
That is right up there with wanting to see Obama’s original birth certificate.
From Turnbull’s Twitter:
Ru,
The Polly wafflers will always know more than the Expurts under Labor
There’s a bit of strategy involved here. The Government may not want the bill amended because that would make it easier for the Liberals to send the amended version to the Senate committee.
It may work out better for the government to start opposing the deal amendments if they find out for sure that the deal has no chance of passing.
The opposition will have to decide whether they are willing to accept the original CPRS minus the deal, which of course makes it more likely of them handing the government a D.D. trigger.
Labor wimped out. Deal with it.
According to Newsradio the Oppositioon Party Whip is having a medical procedure – hence the spill meeting on Tuesday.
Thank you Shows On!
I may not be right but I may not be wrong but Rua is sure I am wrong!
I can’t win here either way but thanks for the help!
Diog, Liberals wiped out. Deal with it. Who you gonna call?
OK percentage chance of the following happening please guys:
Vote on Monday for ETS. ETS does not pass (either rejected or deferred)
Julia goes to Yarralumla, DD election, 33 days notice for the election (isn’t that the rule?).
Election called for 33 days after Monday = 2 January 2010 (or maybe 9 January)
Yes I am aware of the senate term problem, but I can’t get the tone of Julia’s speech out of my head
Could a DD election be called later?
Has there ever been a January election before?
Am I overanalysing this?
You were incorrect, as were many. I corrected your incorrectness.
It will be interesting to see the line of questioning from Red Kerry, insider or offsider?
Diog you do yourself no favours with your Shameaham-type analysis. Hockey is more silly than we thought to put his hand up now. Abbott will win a three-way contest
Finns
Labor wimped. The Liberals wimped.
It’s only the Greens who are sticking to their guns and smelling like roses. The voters will remember who had the courage of their convictions.
Andrew, Diog has just done a plastic surgery on himself, he is now Shanananana.
Extraordinary as to why the Liberal Party have reached this point.
Surely big business and the coal lobby would have preferred this once only deal than face something probably much worse for them after the next election. So I can’t see them encouraging the Liberals to block everything. If they have then they are stupid.
The only other option is that many have this irrational intensity of anger against Rudd or Global Warming and would sooner saw their legs off than have the party support it.
Grech actually gave them good advice on this, too bad for them they went for the email instead.
While Liberal Senators have been reeling and frothing at the mouth they may have missed something ominous for their futures. The performance of senior Labor people in the midst of this battle. Labor’s front bench are the real deal and their superiority must be frightening for most Liberal party seniors.
Over my Spina Bifida riddled body they will
Dio
Now why would Labor wimp it? I can’t think of any sensible reason why.
I think you are wearing an eye patch when you make such a comment. Try looking through both eyes for a different perspective.
ruawake,
I don’t know what they would have done if it wasn’t for twitter.
We have been deluged with an overload of information in real time and I don’t think there is any precedent for an affair to move so fast and with so many twists and turns.
IMHO only!
Speaking of Godwin, the WA Libs had offered him a job to help formulate the Royalties For regions deal.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/6521602/barnett-denies-grech-job-offer/
50%
0%
0%
If the bill is blocked we will go to a D.D. in July.
I don’t think so.
Yes, but we all are.
Evans and Wonk looked absolutely shattered at the proceedings wound up today. They certainly didn’t wimp out, they were out manoeuvred and couldn’t do a single thing to prevent it!
IMO, only!
Tony Abbott is the biggest loser because even he himself knows he is not electable.
Frank
I doubt that you can stop the Greens getting a win out of this one.
There is a way for the Liberal Party fortunes to rise out of this. If Turnbull, Pharaoh like in wisdom, continues the fight, wins against all the odds, claims a famous victory, votes the CPRS through and the nutjobs shut up, pay him abeyance and praise his lofty wisdom, and thereafter shut up…it will go well for Turnbull and Liberals fortunes.
Many thanks for your honesty ShowsOn, and for letting me rest assured that I am not the only one think too hard about this LOL!
#388, what have you been smoking?
OK the chance of nutjobs ever holding their tongues or knives is about zero.
The Greens are the biggest wimp along side Hockey
#388
Good point, but it ain’t gonna happen!
I’ll do my bit for sure
PART of it could happen. The Senate may pass the amended CPRS thanks to 7+ Liberals who still support Turnbull voting with Labor to support the deal. But then Turnbull will lose the leadership on Tuesday.
That is what I would consider the most absolutely hilarious scenario. I nominated it as such int he previous thread.
OK percentage chance of the following happening please guys:
0% ! 100% referred to committee!
0% ! Rudd will want to delay it and get the Budget through to assist election chances. That will be difficult as the Libs will try to block nearly everything!
0% ! Same answer as above!
Ahh, the big stories are reported by their ABC.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/27/2755985.htm?section=justin
Finns
That’s a bit unfair on Hockey. He supported the legislation and his leader. He’s obviously going to have to be dragged kicking and screaming into going up against Turnbull.
I think he’s doing OK. Turnbull, McFarlane, Brandis and a few others are looking OK to me (although I do take TP’s point about Turnbull doing this over a carton of milk or anything).
Going to a poll on a emissions trading scheme i think will be risky and Labor knows that. Why seek amendments and get the coalition on side.
I do think though that Labor will win but who knows? A scare campaign on an ETS will be something that Labor will not want.
I will say it again the Labor scheme is a big joke and will absolutely nothing. Both parties do not believe in climate change.
And all these sceptics regarding temperatures,, if temperatures are not increasing than why are glaciers and the ice caps melting?
Gee whiz Frank, at least they say something on Climate change go to the commerical news networks and their stories are all about celebrities or crime….
If you intend to go to an election on GW CC issues you would want to do it in summer surely, not during winter where you might be having cool days and rain. So if it is a DD with CC as the hot topic then it has to be early or not at all. But of course the Govt can make any and all issues major topics.
Ruawake,
Hey, just remember that you gotta get in the queue!
Because Labor promised to do it this term, it was a major election commitment.
Diog, he has not uttered a single word since the fiasco began to support his leader.
Frank
I would expect no less.
I heard Milne on triple j this week being asked by the incredulous reporter “So you are barracking for the Right wing sceptics?”
She said “Absolutely. We don’t want this bill to pass.” I’m pretty sure “lock in failure” was in there somewhere.
The Greens (party at least) genuinely don’t want this to pass.
Having a spine installed?
Well he did after fiasco #2 (the Andrews tilt), but yeah, he hasn’t since fiasco #3 started (the Abbott resignations).
Stacker Johnson on Skynews has endorsed a Tony Abbott / Julie Biship ticket.
Yeah, he has come down with a case of Costelloitis.
Senator Birmingham (a sensiliberal) said the government asked him to gag the debate, but he said no.
If Labor cannot get this pissweak ETS through the Parliament, how do the Greens think they have a snowball chance in hell of getting a tougher one through??
The Greens are doing what is right. Please explain to me how a scheme which compensates people ( other than the rich) for increases in electricity prices and compensates businesses will reduce emissions. Where is the incentive?
Ok, so people tell me that there will be no election in January
Two questions
1. Is a referral to committe counted as a rejection for DD purposes?
2. Julia was pretty much saying “pass it on Monday or else”. So the question is since the early DD is out: or else what? It seems a little open ended.
Andrew,
I think there is more to it than that. IMO, Abbott realised that there is “not” as strong an anti-ETS sentiment out there to help him win the election and he is cunningly forcing Hockey to face it knowing that they will almost certainly lose.
Abbott also is aware that he doesn’t have long to wait and that Hockey will be easy meat to toss after the election loss!
That is why Hockey has been reluctant to put his hand up by now but Abbott has snookered him!
If was in Party Office, I would be downloading the audio of Triple J’s website, burning it to CD an d have it letterboxed in every seat in the country.
What a complete tool.
But where do the Greens hope to gain from all of this?
If it goes to a DD and then a joint sitting, they don’t get a look in. What then? Block all government legislation until the Greens get their own bills passed?
Prayer!
ru
They need a new Senate with the Greens having the BOP. That’s what they are praying for.
Finns
Hockey is still refusing to challenge tonight. It’s beginning to look like it might be Tony v Turnbull on Tuesday. Still, there’s a long way to go this weekend.
Not necessarily. It depends if it is considered part of the normal procedure for dealing with a piece of legislation, or if it is sent away to a committee seemingly never to return.
What she was doing was warning the Liberals that if they don’t pass it next week then the Government will consider it as a breaking of the agreement, which would enable the government to offer the CPRS without the amendments, which of course the Liberals would block, thus handing the government a D.D. trigger.
lol @ those thinking the Greens do well out of this
I disagree. There is a bigger gap between Labor and the Greens than Labor and the moderate Liberals.
This is EXACTLY what Turnbull should do. He is saying to his party that if they want to adopt a climate change denial policy then they will need to do so by electing a denier as leader who will take them to electoral oblivion.
Turnbull is effectively stopping them from using Hockey as a compromise candidate.
Diog, this is a charade. Mad Monk wont even vote for himself because he knows he is not electable. This is just to try to flush out Hockey. Hockey can kill this if he comes out and states that he supports Turnbull as the leader. That’s why he is the biggest wimp. He wants his cake and eats it too.
Dario,
I think you are wrong!
ShowsOn
Thank you for answering my questions
I can see what you are saying, but I just have a feeling things are really going to hit the fan on Monday (like they haven’t already), and I am not talking just the Liberal leadership. Julia was very non-committal on DD questions. Maybe I’m reading too much into this.
I’m not saying a DD blow up and an election, but something.
Logic would imply that the smartest move would be to wait until July. But since when has logic applied to anything this week?
My spidey senses are tingling on this one……
Hmm, Clerk of the Senate says ETS dely won’t be a DD trigger.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/6525604/ets-delay-may-not-tigger-election/
Well if the leadership spill is on Tuesday then I think it is 50/50 that it will pass. If the meeting is on Monday then I’m on about 80/20 that it will be blocked.
The illogical side is that of the Liberals. The Government just wants to keep government, hand down another budget next May (which will show the deficit is even lower than MYEFO says), and then go to a D.D. in July and obliterate the Liberals in both chambers.
And just to think it was meant to be Harry Evans’ last day today…
Minchin has just given a gaffe by saying that a whole new Industry would be developed.
The Government could quite rightly say that new Industry means new jobs!
Minchin in the blue corner and malcolm in the blew-it corner.
Red Kerry has just stumped Minchin.
Libs will always be more stumped under a labor government
Minchin is a dill but why does the ETS have to be rushed in.. why? is it better to have an adequate policy on climate change or is Labor playing politics and spin…
I see Diog is all excited trying to bag labor again. (bet he’s sad that the Rann crap fizzled
)
How were Labor expected to get the numbers in a vote when there were 12 would be turnbull backing senators missing from the Senate?
SO
That’s true but the Libs will be just the wing-nuts after the next election. All the moderates are in the marginals. And there’s a huge gap between Labor and the deniliberals.
It was in 1951, although the Senate’s procedures were rather different thenn. But this bill has already been through at least two and I think three Senate committee enquiries, so a case can certainly be made that this is a delaying tactic. It is however a matter for the sole discretion of the GG. If the PM says “The terms of s57 have been met, please give me a DD,” and the GG agrees, then that is that. Her decision is final and cannot be litigated.
Red Kerry is very “sympathetic” towards Turnbull and was tough on Minchin. Draw your own conclusion.
Finns
it’s the red tie
vera
Someone has to stop the hubris from drowning people. And Labor people should be very disappointed that the ETS is probably dead. I bet Penny Wong is crushed and rightly so. She’s obviously put her heart and soul into getting the ETS up and I doubt she’ll be gloating over the pitiful state of the Liberal Party.
Well, my prediction is the next Senate will have 7 Greens and 36 Labor. So only 3 Greens required. I wonder if Labor negotiates with the Greens and manages to split off 3 sensigreens from the 4 deniergreens and gets CPRS Mark II passed?
Grech, the gift that keeps on giving. Now it’s the WA Libs turn to feel the hotplate!
I wonder if Grech is giving advice to Abbott and Minchin at the moment?
Rudd is going to hate it if Turnbull gets rolled! He had so much material to use in QT for months next year and there is still the AFP Report to come. Labor will have to be left with really only Erica and he’s a lightweight and of no consequence! Shame that!
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/6521602/barnett-denies-grech-job-offer/
Its very much alive Diogs.
Shorter Turnbull-there is definitely a 5th column in the libs,howie still luvs me.
Vera, Herr Diog is all plastics, he needs a brain surgery.
If it is pretty clear on Monday that the Liberals won’t support the amended bill it may be in Labor’s interests to STOP the ‘deal’ amendments from being added to the bill. That would make it impossible for the Liberals to send the same bill (i.e. without the new amendments) to a committee and say that it isn’t a delaying tactic. The CPRS as it currently is has already been through a committee procedure, it would be very unusual for the same bill to be sent off to the same committee a second time.
So industry can prepare for it
Interesting to Minchin complaining about not ahving enough time to consider the Government amendments.
Where was Minchin when the Liberals ramped Workchoices though the Senate.
This issue is as Turnbull points out been on the table for years and it was Liberal policy at the last election.
ru
Turnbull is definitely dead (you can’t have a dozen front-benchers resign and keep the leader). And I can’t see any non-Turnbull leader scenario where it will be passed.
You wish. Turnbull still has the numbers IMO. The loud denialiberals are doing a lot of chest beating but getting nowhere. It will pass.
The GGs owe Labor one.
He’s dead in the long term but not yet, and Hockey won’t challenge him until after the next election. Abbott won’t have the numbers.
Dario
If that’s true, then isn’t Rudd is obliged to go to a DD (if he can use the ETS as a DD which seems in doubt).
Aren’t there any other DD triggers he could use instead if the ETS is too risky?
Why would Labor have to negotiate the ETS with the Greens in a new senate where the Greens had the BOP? Why not negotiate with the Liberals? If the Liberals have just been heavily defeated in an election where the ETS was a major issue, they may well be happy to give the government most of what it wanted. And doing a deal with the Libs makes Rudd look moderate, centrist, bi-partisan, etc, which is exactly where he wants to be. I reckon about 80% of the electorate is hostile, to varying degrees, towards the Greens, Labor will want to avoid dealing with them as much as they can.
I agree it is disappointing that we cannot get the CPRS through. I believe there were prolonged negotiations with Senate Liberal moderates today but it was not possible to get seven willing to support the long series of gag motions which would have been necessary to get it through. Given the current state of the Liberal Party they would have been commiting political suicide so I can’t really blame them. The same is likely to be true on Monday. If Turnbull survives the spill, then it’s all on again, but that doesn’t seem likely. If Hockey has indeed sold out the CPRS to get the leadership then that is probably that for this parliament. If there is no DD trigger then the election cannot be before July. But whenever it comes, there will be a terrible judgement on all those responsible for sabotaging the bill and gravely damaging Australia’s national interest by sending us to Copenhagen with no bill enacted. We will try again with a better Senate in 2011 and I for one hope we have a much tougher bill then.
You seem to assume that Australians are all constitutional lawyers. The Government can say that the election is about whatever they want it to be about. Using a D.D. bill is just a mechanism to get there, it won’t be want the election is about.
The Senate will probably block the changes to the Medicare rebate next year.
Dario
Maybe, be I think a couple have flipped. There will be enormous pressure on Hockey to stand as a compromise candidate and save the Libs from Abbott oblivion or Turnbull-inspired nitrogylcerin instability.
He’s not ‘obliged’ to do anything, but Industry may certainly want him to
Goofy as he can be, I just can’t see him being that dumb
The Government should try to pass the original version (without the deal amendments) again next year to say they tried THREE times and still couldn’t get it through. It will paint the Liberals as rank obstructionists.
I’m thinking Turnbull still might win. Problem is he’ll never have the support of those who voted against him, and the ALP will poke at that scab every day till the election.
I though to night was the end, the Liberals were sunk, but after watching the 7.30 report I still reckon Turnbull is in with a chance.
58 42 as always.
30% approval rating for Turnbull.
Turnbull survives.
Will Labor make it easy for Turnbull and remove the offer, or keep the offer on the table. I suspect the offer will be on the table; Labor won’t make it easy. The fun continues.
Loved red ned cornering Minchin. So you going to support second best as leader? Minchin looked like a stunned mullet. A kangaroo blindly hoping towards the headlights.
Hockey has said he will not challenge Turnbull, Turnbull is not going to resign.
So it is Turnbull v Abbott.
It would not surprise me if Abbott chickens out and Andrews stands again.
Psephos
What was the downside for Labor in guillotining a vote on the ETS bill? Are they still hoping for something next week?
Gillard was careful to state the number of reports and committees this thing had been through and also got Wong to state how many hours debate. It was pretty clear to me that Gillard was implying that more than enough time and investigation had gone into this and that the time for more committees had well and truly passed. The message she was trying to give as clearly as she could was was that referral to committee she would take as failure to pass. And it only takes the GG to agree with that I gather for there to be a DD trigger.
That’s what happens when you listen to Nick Minchin for more than a few seconds.
Dario,
I think you are wrong!
Yes
I think you are wrong!
It could be considered not following due process of the Senate.
It could just put all the amendments to the bill that helps the denier Liberals send it off to a committee.
It makes it harder for the moderates to cross the floor to support the final vote.
Dario,
I think you are wrong!
TP
If Harry Evans has genuinely given advice that going to another committee does not constitute “failure to pass” and they go to Bryce and get a favourable outcome (and I gather her decision is not reviewable by law), we’ve got ourselves a constitutional crisis.
Maybe this will work out the best for all:
1. The Denialists finally hung out to dry following the next election
2. A tougher compromise bill worked out between Labor and the Greens following the next election. King Coal sent packing.
3. A stinking series of heat waves and unusual storms between now and the next election to concentrate the minds of the trog wannabes.
Good luck with that! The Greens don’t know how to compromise. They’ll rock up and say “minimum cut 20%” and it will be all over.
Isn’t this how the libs ended up with Downer? So after all the machinations on Tuesday they will come out with Julie Bishop as leader!!! Hahahahah
ShowsOn
Once Fielding turned out to be a denialist Labor had to negotiate with the Liberals to get the Bill through. This meant that what Labor started with had to move further and further away from what the Greens wanted.
With the Liberals out of the picture following the next election Labor can afford to move towards the Green side of things.
That will test the Greens ability to compromise. Until then we haven’t got a clue about how ready they are to compromise.
BTW, I hope that Labor and the Greens do the right thing by each other in the coming election and swap preferences. Anything less would be just another casual victory by King Coal.
Time to get real.
LOL
Turnbull was again pretty impressive on 7.30 Report.
If only he had used his considerable powers for good rather than for evil.
Correct on all counts
There are 29,800 hits on Google when you type in “Antony Green Double Dissolution”!!
That has to be telling us something.
470
If there had definitely been no failure to pass (or other constitutional DD prerequisite) then the High Court might well intervene if a case was brought before it.
I have a different take on Joe Hockey’s tritter comment for it is possible that he is trying to see if he can find a large amount of publci support for the CRPS as a counter to the claims by the Right that the base is outraged.
Can the decision of the GG be taken to court?
A court would never reverse or declare an election void since it is the will of the people.
Best possible outcome:
ETS is passed Monday.
Turnbull is rolled on Tuesday, leaving the Mad Monk in charge with Peter Dutton his deputy.
Coalition is obliterated in a landslide election, 58.2 – 41.8 TPP
LOL! Turnbull thinks Red Kezza is Mr Speaker.
Dario,
I think you’re wrong!
What #481 said.
I’m pretty sure Antony said it couldn’t. I think he said the election would stand but the legitimacy of the DD bill could be subject to judicial review.
I’m going to have to read it up.
I’m pretty sure he said the Queen couldn’t interfere either.
Greens do not know how to compromise, what a load of rubbish.
This year they have compromised on the Budget, where the libs did not wish to, and the Murray Darling Basin legislation with Senator Xenophon whilst again the Libs did not wish to, then their was workchoices and where were the libs on this…
Labor does not wish to speak to the Greens, simple, because they do not believe in Climate Change. This is a dog of a bill..
And look China wishes to cut emissions by 40 percent and where is the west on this…. where…
The Labor Party is full of people within its ranks who do not want change, especially many of the right wing unions and the coal union. They fear change because many of the marginal seats are in coal areas.. .
Sorry the Greens want a fair dinkum scheme not one that will not work.
Possibly. Gee it looked amateur hour-ish though. Vintage Joe.
No downside at all that I can see – we were ready to do it, and we will be again on Monday. But it takes a majority to pass a guillotine motion. That means Labor + 7 Libs, or Labor + Greens + 2 Libs. Neither combination was forthcoming today, and unless Turnbull survives the spill it won’t be forthcoming next week either.
Memo: Harry Evans, despite his delusions of grandeur, is not the Governor-General.
No. HOWEVER, after the election the High Court can rule on whether or not the bill constituted a D.D. trigger., and thus declare it unconstitutional.
Dewgong for the system to work you need a viable opposition. It would be disaster.
Correct on all counts.
Stop lying
So you don’t think the Government will even try the guillotine on Monday, in order to get it through before Turnbull loses the leadership?
Dewgong @ 481,
Arrange that and name your first choice of wine.
Bottle will be heading your way forthwith after you sort it!
He wanted to make sure his name got in the papers one last time
Yeah good idea! But I think you’re wrong!
That was a great 7:30 report tonight
It would be great if 7 sensiliberals support the staged guillotine on Monday and the legislation goes through at midnight before Turnbull is knocked off 9 hours later.
They know whether a guillotine will pass or not beforehand. It’s not as if they need to push a vote to find out.
Dario,
I think you are still wrong!
China is NOT going to cut emissions by 40%.
China is undertaking to reduce emissions by 40% by unit of production.
If, between now and 2020 the total units of production double, which is not an unreasonable assumption, that means that China’s emissions will INCREASE significantly.
flimflam and the flimflam is working, evidently.
The idea that Hockey would take on the leadership is badly flawed. He has made a point of saying the Liberals have to move forward on CC policy. If ascending to the leadership means backing away from that conviction, he will just be a watered-down Turnbull: a reformer without the gumption to argue for his convictions. He will be a laughing stock within days.
It is a given in Australian politics that electoral success is only possible when parties are unified. It also seems the only position consistent with unity in opposition ranks is one of opposition to the CPRS bills. In this case, those Liberals who think that action on climate change is essential may have to choose: the environment or the Liberal Party. they cannot long have it both ways, as Turnbull’s case is proving.
The ideologues and deniers – the “nyet-sheviks” – may yet take a beating. But they have certainly put up a fight this week and have shown they are willing to take the Liberal party to the point of disintegration in order to get their own way. One thing at least is clear: party discipline seems to be able to be applied to secure opposition to the CPRS bills, but not to achieve their passage.
Dario,
I think you are wrong!
Not unless seven Lib Senators sign an oath in blood that they will withstand all threats and abuse and risk expulsion from the Liberal Party by voting for the long series of gag motions that would be needed to force it through.
Psephos
If the Government withdraws the Bill can the Senate still refer it to committee?
From Twitter:
From reading Antony’s blog and finding out what “cognate bills” are, he says that the Ruddbank and Safework Australia were Rudd’s best bets if he wanted a DD.
They hadn’t been represented in Aug 2009 when he wrote the post. What’s happened to them since?
China is doing what we are doing spinning on a turning wicket…
Well, Ruddbank is probably an afterthought now that things have started to stabilise a little bit on the economy side. Not sure on the other one.
Boewar, no I don’t think so.
Diogenes, they are languishing on the notice paper somewhere. They could be brought on at any time. But the same array of delaying tactics are available to the Oppo in the Senate on them as on any other bill.
To those who say that the GG`s DD call can`t be overruled I say you are not the High Court.
So it won’t happen then.
I would’ve hoped the Greens would be willing to at least support those procedural motions even if they ultimately voted against the bill just to force the Liberals to decide rather than delay.
It isn’t something the High Court can rule on because it is considered a Reserve Power that the G.G. holds that isn’t written into the constitution.
Twitter is hilarious tonight:
If Rudd wanted to call a DD he’d get it. In this day and age it would be very unwise for the GG or the high court to step in and say talking a bill out to delay it till next year does not equate to frustrating legislation.
The Libs in marginal seats will be thinking “what is my best chance of re-election”. Do they go with Turnbull or Abbott?
My guess is Turnbull will have a narrow win. The trogs will all be consigned to the backbench and Peter Dutton will lose even if he gets preselection in Murray.
Tom, your ignorance is showing again. The Royal Prerogative is not justiciable. It can be abolished by Parliament, but while it exists is cannot be challenged in court. That’s why it’s called a prerogative power.
Especially when it is such a major piece of legislation
I seriously hope our High Court uses more rigorous reasoning than “In this day and age it would be very unwise…”
In all honesty who would take the GG’s decision to allow a DD to the High Court.
The Greens will love a DD, the ALP clearly are the Governmetn so it is there call and the Liberal Right wont run away for they are convinced that they are onto a winner.
If the government wants to be sure, sure, sure that they have a legit D.D. trigger, they will just put the ORIGINAL CPRS to the House in Feb, and wait for the Senate to block it again a couple of months later.
There’s absolutely no way the Liberals will support the original version if they can’t support the amended version. And they will look like idiots blocking the same bill 3 times in under 12 months.
513
You haven`t read section 57 have you.
http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Australia_Constitution_Act#Part%20V.–Powers%20of%20the%20Parliament.
Dario,
I think you are wrong!
I can’t see how the dynamics change for the Greens so that they get the ETS they desire.
There argument seems to be
1) defeat this ETS at any cost
2) wait for an election
3) get the balance of power at that election
4 then forces a new ETS through the Parliaments.
I don’t see how this works
It seems to be a bit of a fairytale – see Diogenes at post 417.
Just how long are they prepared to wait?
Someone I live with said that today, nobody at his work (department retail) knew what he was talking about when he mentioned the Liberal policy/leadership issues.
Scary.
* For the Nth time it has nothing to do with the High Court. It is entirely within the GG’s discretion.
* The GG is not a rubber stamp. She has certain defined rights and no doubt she will exercise them conscientiously. Among them is the right NOT to grant a dissolution if in her judgement the requirements of s57 have not been met.
They wouldn’t take the decision to the High Court (the High Court would say it isn’t something they can rule on).
What they could do is take the Act to court after it has been through a joint sitting, and argue that the bill never constituted a D.D. trigger and is thus invalid.
Then the Government would have to go back and start all over again, sending a new version to the House and Senate.
This is what I don’t understand …
The CPRS legislation on the table with the Wong/McFarlane amendments must be by far the most generous legislation for emitters that is likely to see the light of day. By far the most likely course of events if the denialiberals WIN is this.
1. There is an election within 9 months (DD or normal half senate/house of reps – doesn’t make any difference)
2. The Nats do okay because of the significant number of nutters we have in our nation, but the traditional Lib heartland of ‘blue ribbon’ leafy urban seats gets decimated including seats like Wentworth and North Sydney (bye bye Joe).
3. Depending on how catastrophic it is for the Libs, Labor have an outright majority in the senate and pass the CPRS legislation without the Wong/McFarlane amendments, or even worse, Greens hold the balance of power and negotiate even higher targets and less compensation for emitters.
So they totally fail in their objective. And that’s if they WIN. But wait. Here’s the steak knives …
4. The ETS is put in place and carbon trading begins.
5. Despite the wailings of the denialiberals, the sky remains stubbornly in place.
6. Voters in the rural and suburban fringe seats that bought the denialiberal rhetoric will realise the scare tactics were exactly that – or at least come to forget it was ever contentious – and the ETS becomes a non issue.
7. Tony Abbott flanked by the likes of Tuckey and Jensen are left to fight the subsequent election at face value, primarily on their economic credentials and credibility as an alternative government.
8. The Liberal Party as we know it ceases to exist.
So why? Someone please tell me. Why?
Bloody Hell. You walk away from this site for a few hours and you’ve got to read 25 pages to catch up …
I have an interesting suggestion for Turnbull: since he clearly no longer has the confidence of the Partyroom, why not resign from the Liberal Party entirely and continue the rest of his term as an Independent?
I’ve got a suspicion that his constituents in Wentworth would be rather pleased with the way he has conducted himself throughout this and, going up against a Liberal opponent at the next election, surely Labor would preference to Turnbull, thereby delivering him a comfortable victory…
I agree
Interestingly a few months ago Robert French said he considered it inappropriate for the Chief Justice of the High Court to give the G.G. constitutional advice.
Queue drama…
I seriously don’t see this happening. I think they will have 36 Senators in the new Senate a gain of 4.
Totally pointless. If they dump him as leader he will resign immediately from parliament. Which would be very sad considering he has the right policy.
Hmm, interesting that Newspoll delivered the Nationals regular 3′s since 2007, yet in the past six months they haven’t got one.
Co-incidence?
Or Barnaby managing to pick up a couple extra loonies?
Yeah that’s what this is all about, Abbott and Minchin are worried that they are leaking the lunatic vote to the Nats.
526
Constitutionally the GG can`t call a DD if there have been no bills that count as triggers under section 57. If there was a case of that happening then the High Could decide to intervene if there was a case brought before them.
The Government cannot ‘withdraw a bill’ in the Senate without agreement from the majority of the Senate. If it is ‘withdrawn’ of course it cannot be sent to a committee.
No they are not. The Government is yet to reintroduce the bills in the House of Representatives.
Let me re-iterate. Labor splits. MPs take a pledge to vote with the party on punishment of expulsion. The Liberals do not. They do not split. The closest the conservatives have come to that was the 1943 UAP disintegration.
And even on 1943 numbers, with 10% of the left voting Green, Labor cannot hold a Senate majority on it’s own. And Labor will not surpass 1943. Nor does Rudd deserve to surpass Curtin.
In the last spill Turnbull got 48 v 35. There might have been one or two in there who thought that they wanted to send Turnbull a ‘message’. I assume most of the 48 would have known that the Liberals face modernity, aka acknowledgement of AGW and an ETS, or perdition. Seriously, if the Libs knock this one off, and go into the next election with a draft ETS, who would take them seriously? An impossible task for them.
We know that the major public frothing has been done by the trogs and that this public frothing is disproportionate to their weight in the Liberals. They have shown serious contempt for discipline, procedures and party unity and a spit in your face attitude to those who know that AGW is on.
Seriously, apart from the fact that Turnbull is crazybrave, why would the 48 now swing in behind the Trogs? I don’t think it is a foregone conclusion that Turnbull is gone at all, at all.
Of course they would. The Governor-General is only empowered to act in such a way as provided by the Constitution. For instance the GG couldn’t just arbitrarily dissolve both houses of Parliament without a ‘trigger’ and the High Court would almost certainly be able to stop this from happening. Similarly, you’d imagine the High Court would injunct a GG from serious abuse of the simultaneous dissolution provision (s 53) if it was absolutely clear the conditions had not been met. If there is any doubt, however, I’d imagine they’d say they couldn’t step in (and quite rightly so).
To me, an interpretation that would say that asking questions during a committee stage on a bill or sending a bill for an inquiry after extensive amendments had been circulated would and should be judged as the Senate exercising its legitimate powers of legislative scrutiny.
Psephos
Thanks. I suppose they could cook up a TOR and hold a Senate Enquiry into exactly the same thing?
What constitutes a d.d. trigger bill is whatever the g.g. is convinced constitutions a d.d. trigger bill.
The Liberals are currently in a process of trying to prove you wrong.
From Daniel Hatch’s (Insise cover) Twitter feed.
A comment too stupid to be worth trying to unravel.
OK, they are languishing somewhere. They can be brought back and put through the Reps in an hour if the government wants, then dished up to the Senate. That assumes it’s three months since they were last rejected. If not there’s no point.
542
A DD trigger is what the Constitution says it is. The High Court has the power to interpret the Constitution.
Political life would’ve been far simpler for Turnbull if he joined the ALP.
If Hockey falls for the sucker trap then he is even sillier than I thought he was. He should know that the Liberals will lose the next election. He can then step in and develop a few policies, have a couple of years and have a reasonable prospect of becoming PM. This is a reasonable game plan and a reasonable Plan A. Plus, it is consistent with his views about AGW.
Plan B is that the Trogs suck him in, set him up for the next election, see him off immediately after it and it is goodbye Joe.
I think he gets this OK, which is why he is talking about sticking with Malcolm, but I am not sure.
I think it was a cultural thing, Turnbull wouldn’t of fitted in with the NSW Right.
And if he lets Abbott take the leadership next week the Liberals will lose in a landslide which will theoretically FINALLY kill of the idea that they should be the party of climate change deniers.
In other words, Hockey will take the leadership at a point in time that is FINALLY willy to embrace sensiliberal policies.
The only problem is Hockey may go close to losing his seat if Abbott’s climate and social policies are REALLY stupid.
Not in this respect. Whether the requirements of s57 have been satisfied is a matter SOLELY FOR THE GG’S DISCRETION. Can’t you grasp this point?
Eratosthanes @ 528,
Best post so far today!
I think I would like to see an Abbott/Bishop ticket. I would nearly get back to praying for a ticket like that.
But wait. Hierarchically, should Bishops be above Abbotts? Should it be a Bishop/Abbott ticket?
550
The Constitution does not say that. It sets out a set of requirements.
The politics of this fiasco will blight the Liberals for years. Labor already “own” so many swing issues – from health to education, industrial relations, jobs, economic growth and the economy, indigenous affairs, foreign and security policy, to name only the most obvious. Now they have freehold title on the meta issues: the politics of climate change, global warming and the environment in general, and a very long lease on superior internal party cohesion, trustworthiness, the ability to govern and the capacity to respond to the future.
At Rudd’s choosing, the L/NP have done themselves almost inconceivable damage and it is safe to suppose the trouble is not over for them yet. By trying to prolong the Senate process, they will keep the public focus on their incapacity, division and irrelevance.
In fact, the only way the Liberal position can become relevant and credible is if the rest of the world were to suddenly walk away from action on CC as well. The Liberals may as well hope the globe ceases to orbit the sun. Climate change is real, dangerous, accelerating and ever more discernible. They are essentially gambling their fortunes on a horse that has already been scratched from the field.
Of course, the Greens, Fielding, X…they also look utterly irrelevant today – how little they have to contribute. How pathetically pointless they are.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,26409630-23109,00.html
I think about 30 years ago there was no Department of the Environment. It was not important enough in its own right. Now the environment has become the no 1 issue.
It is marvellous what a bit of CO2 will do to the structure of government thinking. It is equally a thing of awe and beauty that a substantial section of the Liberals and all of the Nationals are still stuck in the thinking of a generation ago.
Boerwar @ 539.
Because the situation has changed substantially.
Andrews was the only one challenging and there hadn’t been the mass of resignations which have now made Turnbull’s leadership untenable.
And they wouldn’t necessarily be swinging in behind the Trogs. They would be voting for a change of leadership.
Now I’m assuming it will require a spill motion for there to be a vote on the leadership.
If the spill motion succeeds then surely Turnbull is gone (why would any of his supporters vote for a spill?) and it would be pointless for him to nominate. Which gives Joe the opportunity to step in.
Probably the safest option, yes, and allows them to move closer to mid year
Tom, you need to learn some constitutional history. The Royal Prerogative, where it survives, is above all Constitutions and courts. It can be abolished by Parliament (and in nearly every respect it has been), but where it exists it is supreme. The power of the Crown to grant, or not grant, a dissolution is absolute and cannot be challenged by any court. In Australia, the Constitution requires the GG to satisfy herself that the conditions of s57 are met before she grants a particular type of dissolution, a DD, but it does not otherwise limit her prerogative.
The High Court has previously stated they cannot intervene until after a law is passed at a joint sitting (thereby ‘completing’ the full conditions of s 57). I think there’s some scope where the High Court might possibly step in if it is clear the GG is acting clearly outside of their Constitutional power but this would only be if it was very clear that it was the case (for instance, attempting to dissolve both houses after a bill had only been rejected once).
I’d also hope the GG would be discerning enough to reject the most silly of arguments that the ‘twice failed’ conditions have been met. Inquiring into bills falls into this ‘most silly’ category.
I don’t think many people will trust them more on immigration / border protection after this week.
The filibuster reminded me that one of the difficulties for the Trogs is that they frame the AGW issue as a values/ideological issue rather than as a science issue. It came through time and time again in their speeches today. They are therefore genuinely blind to the science. It was why, for example, they referred to Penny Wong as the ‘High Priestess’ and her burning people at the stake. It was why, as soon as possible, they moved the debate from the environmental side of things to the economic side of things. Except of course when Boswell opined on the tides.
They are quite genuine in not getting it.
The CPRS according to the Australia Institute – no doubt one of St bob’s favourite people.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=He5FN3IPA58
I don’t think it would be pointless for Turnbull to nominate if the spill is succesful. It forces Hockey to make the tough choice of running against Turnbull, something he promised he wouldn’t do.
It also increases the chance of Abbott winning, who is unelectable. Thus Turnbull would be saying to the party that if they want to adopt a denial position on climate change they need a denier leader. If that person sends them to electoral oblivion, then that is what the partyroom wanted.
Winston
Could be. Sounds reasonable. One thing I don’t know is the extent to which the modernists are feeling ornery and pissed off at the public sabotage techniques of the Trogs. I imagine, if sufficiently so, they will support Turnbull.
If so, then the Liberals have a hello tomorrow.
The Liberal right are in major battle for continued relevance. If they lose this then it is a long slide out.
If Turnbull wins, he becomes stronger internally and with the electorate and gets to force his ways in the future. The right can’t keep behaving like this every time there is a major difference with the rest and they must know that it would destroy the Libs entirely. So I think Monday is a very important moment for the right. If they lose then it is the end of them. Turnbull then gets to make the party in his own image. IMHO
Which raises an interesting issue. There would only be a joint sitting if the bill is again blocked by the new Senate.
Could the Liberals be so stupid that they oppose the bill before the election, get obliterated, and then the new leader (Hockey?) tells the senate Liberals to vote for it after the election, thus meaning a joint sitting isn’t required, thus avoiding any constitutional uncertainty?
*wanders disconsolately off, thinking self will not be within posting reach on Mon and Tue. Chiz*
How do you see it, is this their resurgence of neo-Howardism, or is this their last gasp before the party officially moves to the centre?
Xenophon has been pathetic.
Greetings PBers and what a pot pourri of political intrigue has kept everyone busy. Unfortunately, I’ve been off earning an honest shilling this week so my contributions have been a little haphazard.
Apologies to all who have posted but I haven’t read the everything. However, here’s a take from someone talking to lots of punters this week.
1. No one cares about the Liberals.
2. Most people want the CPRS legislation through.
3. Turnbull has balls the size that when they clang, the Pope will hear them.
I reckon Turnbull will win the Liberal spill on Tuesday.
Hasn’t Hockey just become a dad? Would he really wanted to be handed the poisoned chalice of LOTO at such an important time in his private life? And if he does become LOTO, won’t there be huge pressures on his time from family commitments? It’s a really bad time for him to take on the job, not just politically but personally.
I think in the extremely unlikely case that there is a DD election on the CPRS the Opposition will likely bow to political pressure and pass the legislation before the joint sitting is required. In any case I think the CPRS will likely be passed next week after complaining by the sceptics faction of the Libs.
Dario,
I think you are wrong!
In a weird way Turnbull is now the only liberal with any hope of a reasonable contest at the next election.
Shows On,
Worse than that, if he does win, he’ll have enormous credibility.
560
The power to dissolve the Senate is a power granted by the Constitution (part of an act of (the UK) Parliament) with strict conditions attached not an ancient Royal Prerogative. The High Court might well rule that the dissolution of the HoR stood as that is not restricted, by the constitution but, the Senate is,heavily so.
Good point, he would get massive points on leadership and political courage.
Problem is, the Right would just undermine him everyday until the election. They wouldn’t be able to handle the fact they lost fair and square.
I think that is what the right will now be worried about. Mephistopheles will be busy this weekend.
As I cannot believe my ears, when I say I think I heard, it means I am not sure that I really heard it.
Did Minchin really say that a world leftist conspiracy developed after the collapse of Communism?
This thing is surreal.
As for the Hockey/Dutton alliance. ????
Malcolm strong again tonight, on the Friday !! 7.30 Report.
Malcolm did not respond to my supportive email. Hopeless office staff as we know.
Not cunning enough in politics. Might try banking if all else fails.
White cars and potential Ministerial perks can be quite useful in dulling political facts.
Article by Turnbull on The Punch:
http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/we-are-at-a-turning-point-in-liberal-party-history/
That cannot possibly resonate with anyone who actually sees her in action
The DD condition is that a bill “fails to pass” a second time. This is a much wider term than, say, would be required if a bill had to be “twice rejected”. The requirements for passage of bills by the Parliament must be spelled out very clearly, since the whole legal apparatus depends on bills being duly passed in order to be capable of having legal effect.
The Constitution clearly anticipates there can be circumstances where a bill has not been rejected, and yet has failed to pass. In my mind, delaying passage and failing to pass are close cousins and can be the same thing. By a perverse irony, perhaps the events of 1975 may provide a kind of precedent. The issue then was defined in terms of the inability of the government to secure supply. Supply had not been rejected. The process of obtaining had simply been disrupted and attenuated. The G-G saw fit to interpret the simple failure of the Senate to vote on the government’s bills as a failure to secure supply and as sufficient reason to dissolve the Parliament. In doing so, the G-G took the (conveniently contrived) advice of the Prime Minister on the day.
The Senate is being manipulated today as a part of a power struggle, just like in 1975, and Nick Minchin is using the same tactics in the Senate now as Reg Withers used in that year. The difference is that while Withers was trying to unseat a Labor Prime Minister, Minchin is trying to over-throw a Liberal Opposition Leader.
This power struggle should be capable of being resolved by political means, including by having an election if the Prime Minister thinks it is necessary to have one. This is the practical context in which the Constitution should be read.
Luckily for the country, this time we have a Chief Justice, the illustrious Robert French, who will not intrude into these political affairs, unlike the meddling, treacherous Barwick in 1975.
Laocoon,
Its dog whistle racial stereotyping and not particularly subtle.
A theory on Twitter is Turnbull wants the spill on Tuesday so that he can reveal his better Newspoll figures.
crikey it baffles me why minchin is not called on his stupid claims. the conservative leadership of france, germany, UK and others such as california gov arnie, all support action on climate change. It is NOT a left-right issue
GG
No, subtlety is not their long suit particularly. In fact, Abetz started off his response to Evans (that the Senate would meet on Monday), with some comment about AS!
Mind you, I love the very elegant way that Wong puts the slipper in
I think that is the strategy Turnbull is banking on! Hockey “won’t” run against him and Abbott clearly said tonight on the ABC that if Shrek won’t run, then he, Abbott would! This clearly plays into Turnbull’s hand as all the nervous nellies on a 5% margin or less would surely know that going to an election under Abbott with a non-ETS platform would be electoral suicide!
Notice how all the strident CC deniers in the Libs are in relatively “safe” seats! So much for their mates! Just my opinion though!
Possum disses the bludgers,post envy?
The 1975 DD was not based on the failure of the Senate to pass the budget. There were 20 other trigger bills which Whitlam had stockpiled.
TP,
You don’t need an IMO with that comment!
His irrelevance was on full display yesterday and today!
The more he tried to cast himself into the picture the worse he looked. He would have been far better off just sitting back and watching the drama unfold! IMO!
Abbott is a paper tiger. He’s only saying he will run to flush out Hockey.
BTW Shows On, I predicted the Newspoll strategy last night.
Laocoon,
Yes, you don’t realise you are dead when Penny is the assassin.
I’ll defend Xenophon here. He moved his amendments and spoke to them. He didn’t say irrelevant garbage like the Libs and Nats. He didn’t call for divisions even though he could’ve if he wanted to waste the Senate’s time.
592
Whitlam was good at getting DD triggers. Was he the best?
But it is risky. How can he be so sure it will be a good poll for him? What if it is worse?
Having said that apparently he had lunch with various journalists from The Australian today. Maybe they clued him in to the early figures.
Just when i though the Liberal Party could not get any more stupid i drove past a sign promoting Kelly ODwyer, only problem i am sure i was at least several K outside of Higgins.
They appear to be unable to even read a simple seat map, no wonder they don’t understand the ETS
Wasn’t it just a couple of weeks back (in Melbourne I think) that Joe stood shoulder to shoulder with his mate Malcolm proclaiming that Malcolm was the leader and that the only job he wanted was Wayne Swan’s job?
He was dealing with a Senate that never got over the fact he won the 1972 and 1974 elections. They just didn’t think was meant to be P.M.
Shows On,
Malcolm’s doing a high wire act without the wire.
Doubts are not a consideration.
I think if it is Abbott and Turnbull as it appears then my money is on Abbott.
This is a must not lose vote for the right, they will do absolutely anything to win now. An ascendant Turnbull will overwhelm the party and as his poll figures grow (as they might now) so their weakness increases. They will be promising all sorts of things to gain a victory. IMO
601
I am aware of why he got the triggers but I was asking whether he got the most triggers.
mb,
At least we know CC is everywhere.
I know whenever the ALP have leadership issues the media draw up a list of who is lining up where and while we have some idea of the current Liberal situation but could someone come up with a list of who is lining up behind Turnbull and Abbott.
Whitlam still managed to get a lot done!
“….Did Minchin really say that a world leftist conspiracy developed after the collapse of Communism?…”
Yes CW, by Minchin’s lights, Turnbull is a stooge of the post-communist left, as indeed are most of the Australian people, if not the world’s entire population. How gratifying but how troubling it must be for him to think he – and a few of his shattered colleagues – really know the awful truth: that CC is a hoax and a ruse designed to enslave us all. What a moral choice the Minchins of the world face: to submit to miserable subjection or to devour their own tribal kin….oh the horror that is the Senate these days….
I may be very wrony but i reckon Turnbull has told Bishop and Hockey to be quiet for he knows that he is at his best when in an arguement
607
I know that too. Still does not answer my question.
Minchin said very clearly on teh ABC 4 Corners program that climate change was a left wing issue.
Google or the parl. lib are your friend.
Either way a battle between Turnbull and Abbott would be close it would do nothing to heal the divisions between the waring camps.
Apt?
Because (a) after 23 years of Lib government Labor had a huge reform agenda, which Whitlam relentlessly pushed through Parliament, and (b) because the Senate didn’t bother with delaying tactics, they just systematically rejected Labor bills.
Had a quick look at vex and the punch. Seems the libs are going with turnbull v hockey, although hockey has said he wont run against turnbull and abbott saying he wants to run. Seems hockey has had a change of heart from a few days ago, and will sell his soul to win over the right wing, then delay the CPRS through reference to an enquiry
Glen is it possible for Turnbull under Liberal Party rules to expel the likes of Minchin and what would those rules be?
In the context of what was transpiring he and his amendments “were” irrelevant although he wouldn’t have been aware of much of it at the time.
Yeah, I’ll give him points for trying to engage in it but not even the mod Libs voted for his amendments. Same with the Greens. Didn’t worry about what Fielding was into. He mostly just looked confused even when he gave the Libs a spray. That was funny!
And memo to Minchin: You can add the conservative NZ government to the list of right wing governments supporting an ETS
615
I said I knew why. I am asking if Whitlam was the biggest collector of DD triggers in history?
Glen,
Smometimes, you got to make a choice.
Every where else in the world conservatives are embracing policies far more radical than Labor style Governments. That’s why Turnbull can see the writing on the wall.
This reductionsim by Minchin and his gang to Left/Right polly speak is rubbish.
Glen – what do you think should happen?
The divisions will only end when the Liberals agree to embrace a progressive climate policy. Turnbull is basically saying “we can do this now in our first term in opposition, or we can wait until our third, fourth, or fifth term, but eventually we will form a bipartisan consensus with Labor on climate change.”
If Turnbull really wanted to snooker the right of the Liberals (and the Government) he will say that they will support the amended CPRS if Labor removes legislative barriers to nuclear power.
Dario,
Sorry, but I can’t disagree with that!
Dario,
But I might be wrong!
Tom you may be surprised but i actually think PM Howard had the most DD triggers.
…#
592
Psephos
Posted Friday, November 27, 2009 at 9:53 pm | Permalink
The 1975 DD was not based on the failure of the Senate to pass the budget. There were 20 other trigger bills which Whitlam had stockpiled.”
Yes, Psephos. But the dismissal was justified on the basis that Whitlam could not obtain supply (not strictly the same thing as the budget). The point is that “failure to pass” as not and is not the same thing as outright rejection.
Referring bills to committees or otherwise adjourning them can be tantamount to failure to pass – itself as good as rejection – and to argue otherwise is just disingenuous, imho.
Yes GG, but no one in the MSM will call them on the left-right rubbish
Well, except for most Republicans. There are some exceptions in the U.S. Senate like McCain, Alexander, Graham.
626
In the one term?
Not bills repeated every term?
Andrew, it is quite a puzzle. I suspect that the media don’t want to call him.
Scorpio, hi there! And ShowsOn.
Though an Xenophon supporter, I am disgusted by his ugly description of Turnbull.
It is ungenerous and worthless. Not like the Nick we thought we knew.
‘White cars and potential Ministerial perks can be quite useful in dulling political facts’.
TP,
Here’s a tip! Get on Telstra shares, They’re gonna skyrocket!
Hi, Crikey, how goes it?
Andrew,
If you hadn’t noticed, the MSM don’t count. They are always wRong and they have the analytical skills of people who tell you what you already know. ( My children do this so much beter).
Your pre occupation with their alleged importance helps them to sell papers.
I’m not sure what we’re actually debating here, but the dismissal and the granting of the dissolution were two different things. As 1975 reminded us, the GG has the legal right to dismiss a PM at any time for any reason, or for no reason, but in practice this right is restricted by the convention that the GG always acts on the advice of a PM who has the confidence of the lower house. Kerr broke that convention in dismissing Whitlam. Once Fraser was PM, he could advise Kerr to dissolve both houses on the basis of the Whitlam government’s stockpiled DD trigger bills. This was of course fraudulent, because Fraser had no intention of passing any of those bills, but Kerr went along with this fraud, and no-one – not the High Court, not the Queen – had the power to interfere with his exercise of his discretion to grant a dissolution.
I’m in a bind!
As a Labor supporter, I’m hoping Abbott becomes leader, because that keeps the conservatives out of power for another 3 terms of government.
As a political pragmatist, I’m rooting for Turnball, if for no other reason than that he supports doing something about climate change.
One thing I do know: I despise Minchin and his lot, a thoroughly nasty piece of work!
Article that puts the current Liberal fiasco into historical context:
http://inside.org.au/reaping-the-whirlwind/
I wonder what Tim Flannery makes of what is going on. He is friends with Turnbull but must’ve always suspected that his party wouldn’t let him adopt an ETS of any sort.
Okayish, at the moment, Scorpio.
Sorry to have missed you. I did find you had emailed me on the mafs address.
The owner did not pass the message on to me.
Probably did not even notice.
Regardless, the address is the same.
Onya Nick. That’ll make the problem go away…
635
Because there were constitutionally valid triggers. No constitutionally valid triggers no power to dissolve the whole Senate. Simple.
evan – just sit back, have a cold beverage of your choice and enjoy.
The libs are making all the mistakes possible and then a few more.
The golden rule is to never interrupt an opponent when they are making serious mistakes, as we all know
The only way the climate denial faction will accept that Australians want action on climate change is for one of Abbott to be the opposition leader that he loses in a landslide.
Only after that happens will they learn that their extremist clique does not actually represent mainstream views.
what cheer, bludgers? k.rudd has played the opposition like a bar-room piano. This week will long be touted as his greatest political achievment. All the other issues had strategies under way when he won office, and all he had to do was not mess it up but this chaos is Rudd-the-puppet master at a Jedi-master level. turnball needs to go, we need a leader that is lessp keen to sing Rudd’s song
evan14,
I don’t know if you noticed but when Minchin was running through his list of Liberal supporters on the 7.30 Report tonight, he started at the “top tier” and finished at “middle income earners”.
So much for the “Howard battlers”, low income earners, pensioners etc! I hope those watching in those classifications that he missed tonight, remember just where the Liberal’s loyalties lie!
Mr Squiggle, are you in the Hockey, Abbot or Andrews camp?
Squiggle,
Who do you think should take over and why?
If Abbott becomes leader, they’ll move further to the right on a whole heap of issues!
For instance, I’d predict a return to the Pacific Solution and the policy of towing the boats back to Indonesia.
I daresay the Mad Monk would keep Hockey and Pyne and Dutton in his shadow cabinet, to give the impression that the moderates have a place in the “new” Liberal Party, but it’d be little more than window dressing!
evan you along with many others are seduced and blinded by turnbull’s last ditch attempt at conviction and bravery. If he really was a leader who fought for what he believed in (other than himself), would he have taken the approach to AS that he has?? This, as always with Turnbull, is all about Turnbull, and nothing else.
Mr Squiggle,
I think you are giving Mr Rudd too much credit here!
The Libs have been doing a fine job of it all by them selves!
Another question: Who would they preselect to take over from Turnball in Wentworth?
Some nutter from the NSW religious right, one of David Clarke’s lot?
Like all right-wing Liberals, Squiggle doesn’t care about the issue at all. He just cares about blocking whatever Rudd tries to do. The earth could be warming, cooling or splitting in two, and all the right-wing Liberals care about is their obsessive hatred of Rudd.
Dutton is a Conservative. That’s why he is lined up to be Hockey’s deputy to stop him from adopting sane policies.
If they picked a climate sceptic they’d lose the seat.
But who exactly would want to run in Wentworth after what has happened?
Andrew: I’m as disappointed as you with Turnball’s embrace of “bashing boat people”.
However I never thought his heart was in it, he didn’t look very convincing!
Abbott on the other hand really believes this stuff!
Psephos: they’re insanely jealous that Rudd will have such a prominent role at Copenhagen, and so the aim was to sabotage this by denying Kev an ETS.
Have you thought this week that it would be good if we had a system where parties weren’t so disciplined?
If those moderate Liberals weren’t subject to party backers for their pre-selections we would most likely have the CPRS today.
quite right Psephos….My point is that the Senate may “fail to pass” measures in any number of ways that fall short of outright rejection. Various devices – such as referring bills to committees or otherwise prevaricating and deferring votes – can be used. The Clerk of the Senate has said these things may not amount to “failure to pass” a bill. Minchin is relying on this advice. But in 1975, delaying techniques were used by the Senate in relation to Supply bills, and the delay was construed as a “failure to pass”. To my mind it would be very odd that delaying a vote on legislation in 1975 could be regarded as a “failure to pass” the bills- and thereby create a reason for dismissing a PM – while in 2009 delaying a vote on a bill would not be regarded as a “failure to pass.”
But anyway, as you say, the G-G has the right to interpret things as she sees fit, if in fact Rudd decides to ask for a DD at all.
evan14. I think you are experiencing the ambivalence.
The problem is that Malcolm joined the wrong party.
Has Turnbull not actually now repaired his initial error in seeking the liberal party leadership?
This was a poisoned chalice from the start. Now, he can get rolled, watch the idiots lose the next election on a climate change denial platform. Cool his heels for a short time on the backbenches, and then return after the inevitable loss as the Messiah?
Lazarus with a double bypass?
And we must understand now that it was really the only thing he could talk about in Q.T. If he talked about climate change he ran the risk of bringing on a leadership spill BEFORE the opposition had a chance to even look at the government amendments.
Probably all the people who missed out on Bradfield!
Wentworth is the sort of seat they’d be lining up for.
I think the problem is that they’ll preselect someone who won’t be as green as Turnball.
Dario,
I won’t!
Are you sure you’re not wrong?
It is so true, he has always been to the left of his party on the entire climate change debate.
But do you really think Turnbull would fit in with the NSW Right?
What really sickened me watching the news tonight: Barnaby Joyce crowing and almost claiming victory! What a turkey!
LOL! Yeah, John Alexander, real leadership material there. He can’t even win a debate against Jim Courier in a commentary booth, how do you think he will go against Gillard?
Peter J Nichol,
Lovely post and I have his resurectional theme song already worked out.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNC0kIzM1Fo
Showson: Most interesting is the government suddenly praising Turnball!
Rudd will offer him a job of some sort, or an inducement to join the ALP.
That’s my fearless prediction for next week!
Our parliamentary paradox is that we have an adversarial system, yet punters like to hear politicians cooperating. Gillard was just reminding everyone that the Government had a deal here, but the denier faction of the Liberals has broken it.
He never left in spirit, only in practice.
Time to call him in, his job is done
Muhahaha
Betting odds. Hockey a huge favourite:
http://www.sportingbet.com.au/uipub/sport.aspx?l1id=34&l2id=1110965&l3id=1224029
Turnball: Minister For The Emissions Trading Scheme?
Wow.. almost tempted to put a hundred down on Turnbull
crikey whitey,
I bet that has crossed his mind a few times in the last two years, Crikey!
GG: is there something about copy and paste you haven’t grasped? Or are you just overly fond of aitches?
gus,
Apparently Rudd was the Libs Manchurian Candidate and he won’t come home.
Muhahahaha!
cud chewer,
Stick it into Telstra shares! You should get a better pay out but don’t hold them for too long!
They may drop after this is over!
Peter J Nichol,
Not sure if we’re on the same wavelength…….?
Haitches and aitches, I’m a Catholic, so let’s call the whole thing off.
ShowsOn at 663.
“But do you really think Turnbull would fit in with the NSW Right”?
Well, ShowsOn, I reckon Turnbull lacks experience in not getting his way. I presume to say this, given his apparent authority in a world different from politics.
But why would he need to fit into the NSW right? What does that have to do with it?
Except if he needed some experience in knee capping of a different sort.
Turnbull has to be top dog, he will always be destabilising running his own little plans.
That’s my arbitrage scorp, in case the Senator for Telstra wins the day
evan14,
I reckon that would be over Rudd’s cold, lifeless body! Howard would get an offer like that before Turnbull!
Rudd will “never” forget ute-gate, Grech & Turnbull or forgive! IMHO only though!
I still say Rudd will offer Malcopops a job, to piss off whoever is leading the Liberals next.
Oh dear lord, even Michelle Grattan is on Twitter:
http://twitter.com/michellegrattan
GG: there is no aitch in my name.
Shows On,
Talking about leadership contenders, loved your Sportingbet link.
Dutton, the great contender, @ $26 ! lol
http://www.sportingbet.com.au/uipub/sport.aspx?l1id=34&l2id=1110965&l3id=1224029
Unlike most of the people who covet his position and are tearing him down, Turnbull is a self made multi millionaire. He is unlikely to seek a cushy job from the Government. As he said last night , he entered politics to make a difference. At the moment he is apparently in a decline. I would not count him out at the minute.
Gents, this leadership stouch is a game of pass the parcel in an Irish pub. What we needed in 2007 Nov was a couple of openers to take the shine off the new ball. What we got was Nelson (out no score) , and turnbull(elegant strokemaker, but appears to be scoring for the wrong side). What we need is a beligerent divisive prik who will provide a clear choice.abbot for my money, keep Joe in reserve
Maybe Turnbull could be re-incarnated as an Ambassador for Climate Change. He has certainly has the credentials to be believed by the world at large….and people would call him “Excellency” and he would like that a whole lot……:)
Pheter,
No copy and paste for me but I apologise.
Who was the idiot who invented Twitter?
David Speers is bad enough, now Michelle Gratten?
Let me guess, Glen Milne is on Twitter too?
What surprises me is the punters who think Hockey will be leader given he’s on the wrong side of the ideological rift.
Mr Squiggle:
Abbot would be so much more fun. Sloppy Joe, just that, sloppy. Saw Gillard tear strips off him on red kerry’s show one night – he was caught on camera appealing to his minders for help… not a good look.
Abbot is not a lightweight, just klimate kook…
Why is it that political reporters absolutely cream themselves when there is a remote possibility of a double dissolution election?
Is it because we haven’t had a D.D. for 25 yeras so there is like a D.D. drought that all the reporters are suffering withdrawal symptoms from?
Look at Turnbull’s twitter page
http://twitter.com/TurnbullMalcolm
and tell me that photo hasn’t been seriously doctored.
But does the Right actually have the numbers? Or are they just a minority of “anyone but Turnbull and a sane climate policy” insurgents?
GGH
Gheez man,the sphelling of nhames is important
Lhift your ghame
I am not sure if there is a HoR seat that would be considered safe ALP that would have suited Turnbull.
The Senate would have been the wrong house for him.
Rudd’s Twitter Page: He’s now got 779,000 followers!
Adam: seriously shopped. Or a massive injection of botox. What is with the forehead?
No! Glen Milne is just a “twit”!
MacFarlane was saying early today that Turnbull has the numbers. But who knows. The Senators seem to have caved in. Who, being of sound mind, would want to lead the Liberals anyway?
He could’ve won Wentworth for Labor!
For those Liberals voting the CPRS through would be the ultimate F.U. to the Taliban faction as Laura Tingle calls it.
Shrek’s been busy trying to help Rudd reach his 13 million population increase by 2050!
Nah. The rumblings of discontent in the ALP started to gain pace after Costello & Nelson. I reckon he’ll back away from any more Lib appointments for a while.
If anyone cares, the polls on “Liberal Radio” suggest that over 90% want Abbott to be leader. Alan Jones was pushing Abbott very hard this morning as the great messiah!
Hmmm. Looks like he could still do with a few jabs of Restylane in his lateral periorbital wrinkles.
That’s a Nicole Kidman amount of Botox on his forehead and glabella. No wonder he doesn’t frown much.
Also his front hair has miraculously grown back.
For the Right wing crazies, it’s become a religious thing now. They are looking for a martyr to lead them against the forces of Darkness. For the good of the country I hope it’s not Abbott.
Not really. If the idiot Libs take their policy advice on this from right wing radio then they will end up in the wilderness for decades.
Abbott would spend all his time trying to prove he’s not a dickhead. Unfortunately, for him, his kids and every sentinent human being he’s ever met beg to differ.
God I hope it is Abbott, he’ll be lucky if he loses by 50 seats next time.
Dario,
Excellent point.
But they will only get over this delusion when one of THEM takes the leadership and loses an election in a massive landslide.
If Hockey takes the leadership and loses, then the nutters will just say “Well Hockey was like Turnbull – too moderate!” And then this insane crap will happen all over again.
psephos,
Maybe Malcolm plays his C&W records in reverse.
Your dog doesn’t die, your wife returns and your hair grows back.
Right wing radio has contributed greatly to the mess this week. The shockjocks, at least the ones in Sydney, have been pushing their listeners to phone and email Liberal senators, lobbying them to vote against the ETS. Add to that Alan Jones airing every loony climate change sceptic on his program, including this Lord Monkton character.
And of course Ian Plimer is regularly a fixture on 2GB.
Dario,
Still waiting for you to put up your evidence!
I’m going to stick to you like araldite until you do!
There’s four tabs of the other thread open here just waiting to do a nice little cut and paste job on you!
my mum thinks Kevin Andrews wears a wig. His hair is like Ray Martins
Wonder if malcolm has ever watched “mutiny on the bounty”
Just saying
If Malcolm listens to C&W I’d be very surprised.
You’d love to see Abbott crying on election night 2010!
The one that Senator Mcdonald regularly calls “Professor Pilmer.”
Sam Maiden’s twitter
I can’t see a single Newspoll saving Malcolm, but I’m sure he will be watching keenly on Monday.
He’s probably hoping for a really bad one like 63-37 which would show the Libs how their lack of unity has hurt them. A 52-48 poll and the nutters will say the public approve of their mutiny.
GG,
And the cat doesn’t come back the very next day!
The Marlon Brando version is great.
He fished an old wig out of Martin’s trash.
psephos,
malcolm doesn’t listen to anybody.
scorpio,
Good get.
Not as bad as his constant refrain that scientists are split “50/50″ on the issue of climate change.
It explains everything!
Diogenes,
I’m sure Newspoll could oblige! They’ve got form!
Yeah, he just makes stuff up
Is it just me who’s creeped out by Nick Minchin, especially when the man smiles?
Mr Andrews, I know you want to be PM. But, will you tell us if you wear a wig?
scorps
A 52-48 on Monday would eclipse the OV 53-47 as the most talked about poll of the last few years. It would become immortal.
evan
Nick Minchin is Australia’s Dick Cheney.
GG
“I would not count him out at the minute”.
Your sentiments, I believe, are correct, GG.
Turnbull, I reckon, will fight on.
He has nothing, nothing to lose.
I nicked off to watch Lateline, even Laura Tingle sees little hope, but one never knows.
Laura sees little hope for Hockey, incidentally.
In the longer scheme of things.
Dario,
It’s about time “you” did!
I’m still waiting!
Diogs,
I suspect you will see an improvememnt in Turnbull’s personal ratings, but the Libs will be forkd over. that will create confusion amongst the Lib memebers.
A mate years ago,looked like minchin and had that same creepy grin.
he was a mortuary assistant and used to trip out ambo’s etc with his grin.
Minchin could be his doppelganger
I’m really hopeful that Newspoll will throw in generic climate change and CPRS specific questions.
FWIW:
Diogenes,
It’s amazing just how many people have such clear and lasting memories of 1975!
I wonder if in years to come they remember 2009 as well as that?
Yes
You could say they have reached a fork in the road,and elsewhere for that matter
Yes that’s true in general terms, but he also badly wants an ETS bill. If only a Labor-Greens Senate can give him one, that will have to do. Business should be very forcefully pointing out to the Libs that a Labor-Greens Senate will deliver a much more “left” ETS than the one currently on offer – higher targets, less compensation, shorter timelines.
Frank
I can’t see how anyone could be accurate enough in their predictions of Senate seats in a DD vs usual election to make a decision based on that.
And with a DD, Nick might be able to get a 2nd senator up on his ticket as he’s be running as well, but he would be less likely to get an X clone up with a standard election as he wouldn’t be running.
Frank,
What have the Greens ever done for Labo?.
Labor’s more likely to support a splinter Turnbull group than the unreliable Greens.
Will there be any polling done in Bradfield and Higgins next week before the byelections?
Wouldn’t you love to be Paul Fletcher and the young lady in Higgins?
Funniest poll stack ever:
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/poll/display/0,22621,5042334-5006301-1,00.html
Yes, in S.A. a D.D. may work out bad for the Greens, Hanson-Young may lose to a Xenophonphile.
The Lower House is back at 9AM on Monday!
WOOHOO! Does this mean that while they’re waiting for the Senate, Julia, Combet and Tanner can rip shit out of the Liberals?
Sweet!
I doubt it. Though if it is bad for the Libs some party polling may leak out to the media.
Shows On,
No Nick Minchin? WTF
10 AM.
They may take the opportunity to ram through some D.D. triggers while the Liberals don’t have any leadership.
scorps
I never know what people are going on about with 1975. I was eight at the time. The only thing I remember was Dad (who is a Liberal rusted-on and Catholic anti-Queen) getting blasted by Mum (who didn’t give a shT).
Mum told him it was pretty ridiculous for someone who was always carrying on about how terrible it was to have the Queen ultimately in charge of the country to be jumping up and down with joy when the Queen’s rep actually did something. He shut up after that.
At present though you have nutbag Fielding in there as well though, and wouldn’t a DD be more likely to throw up another X into the mix?
I piss off my Monarchist / Socialist (yes, very strange mix) dad by saying the Queen should’ve intervened and sacked Kerr before he had a chance to sack Whitlam. I actually use it as evidence for why we should be a Republic – the Queen failed to intervene in 1975 when the democratically elected P.M. of the country was sacked by the Queen’s Representative.
I think you’re right
Yes you’d get another X probably. But a D.D. makes Fielding’s very remote chances of re-election only slightly less remote.
How much in the loop was she though?
I remember 1975 in absolutely photographic detail. Malcolm Fraser, although he’s become a harmless old softie in his dotage, will always be the epitome of evil to me.
*phut*
Yeah, he’s gone either way I think, was referring more to the current state of play
She was asleep, or playing with corgies or somesuch matter of state
The current state of play sucks because we still have half the Howard Senate in there.
I would support a reform to make EVERY Senate election a full election.
You know strange things are happening in the world when David Penberthy is the voice of reason in a debate against Andrew Bolt on climate change:
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26405319-5006301,00.html
Dario,
I think you’re wrong!
Kerr gave the Queen no inkling of his intention to dismiss Whitlam, and I don’t believe any constitutional authority would argue that he should have.
I think You’re wrong!
749
Hanson-Young would have to be second on the ticket for that to happen and I think that she will be first. The Greens are almost certain to get a Seat in SA at a DD as they are likely to get around a quota and would probably be elected in their own right or on micro-party preferences.
Dario,
Sorry, I think you’re wrong again!
Shows On,
The beginning of the retraction. News have been an absolute disgrace on CC. Through their minions like Blair and Bolt they have created massive confusion. Rudd got it entirely right two weeks ago when he called the MSM on their recalcitrance.
Yeah, that’s what I figured. I doubt she would have interfered even if he had told her.
Well diog, this explains a lot about you to me.
What can I say ? Well you had to be there.
Speaking of 1975 – if you were watching Ch 0 Melbourne, you might remember this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NenQWqVnH9k
The corgi’s thought it was a ruff deal
I don’t even know if she could’ve. But anyway, it is the principal of it. My Dad’s admiration for the Queen is only exceeded by his admiration for Whitlam. So saying that the Queen should’ve stopped Whitlam from being sacked sets his monarchist leanings against his socialist leanings in a match to the death.
Diogenes,
Wise mum! There’s quite a few others that could have done with that advice!
Personally I was somewhat in shock, but probably more in disbelief at the time and certainly resented the earlier Malcolm while he was in power, but let it go after Hawke got in!
Uuhhhhh!
Is William back?
Dio, does this ring true?
http://www.theage.com.au/national/nothing-dull-about-sa-saga-of-sex-and-politics-20091127-jx1q.html
Strictly speaking, even giving her opinion would be interfering, despite it carrying no official weight. She could have just told Kerr that she thought what he was about to do was wrong and it may have changed his mind. Nah… he would have still done it
Check out my twitter avatar, the pic is fraser just befor he gets in the car,I wont identify the kid in the background
This from Laurie Oakes -
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,26411072-5017608,00.html
Dario,
You think she was in the loop? You don’t think she was in the Loop?
I think you are wrong!
Dario,
I think you are wrong!
http://www.theage.com.au/national/nothing-dull-about-sa-saga-of-sex-and-politics-20091127-jx1q.html
Gotta love those journos. Meticulous with the facts!
http://twitter.com/premiermikerann
Not a shorter, younger Gus?
And 2009 ? another 1975 in that the libs *flouting convention* being *assholes* of themselves etc whatever, hopefully with the by-product of destroying themselves to boot.
Either way, labor just need to sit back and let them stay firmly on course for the rocks.
Dario,
I think you are wrong again!
I once read that the Queen was a sleep when the sacking occured and actually is said to have been unhappy for it went against her views that were never sought.
P.S i heard once that Her Maj liked Whitlam.
And for those not following Gus:
http://a3.twimg.com/profile_images/407802665/daddy_at_dismissal.jpg
My sis is in there too!
(the flares on the 7 cameraman are gold)
I think the deniers don’t consider the shadow cabinet part of the vote, especially when several of them didn’t support the cabinet position. That’s why Turnbull didn’t want a secret ballot on the issue because they could have voted against him on it.
Dave,
I wonder if the Libs realise that there might just be a slight chance that Labor has learnt a thing or two from the 1972 to 1975 experience!
Fool me once, fool me! Fool me twice, not likely!
It’s a pretty good position to be in
I luv how bush always mangled that saying
gary,
McDonald has said consistently that Turnbull had the numbers. Further that Turnbull had no intention of resigning and even furtherer that Hockey had said nothing to him about defecting.
McDonald is a straight shooter and it is about time the MSM stop being distracted by the bright lights of the dissenters and started reporting what is really going on.
Dario,
I think you are wrong!
Where’s the evidence, Dario? I’m still waiting and have infinite patience!
In fact, I’m prepared to wait years if need be and prepared to follow you until you deliver!
Scratch that… just read the rest of the Oakes article and it was 49-46 even with their yes or no votes included. So there you have it, the whole thing has just been a bunch of whingers that couldn’t handle losing the vote!
Dario,
I think you are wrong!
Dario,
I think you are wrong again!
Don’t expect that any time soon
Quite the opposite – have hockey got the *starch* to set the terms under which he would reluctantly go anywhere near assuming *responsibility* for leading such a disgraceful rabble ?
Sounds like a shite sandwich to mr whatever way its dressed up.
Hint joe – flick it to the mad monk ! You will never regret it. Greener pastures lay ahead, but yiu need patience. Enjoy the family in the meantime. You will never regret that.
Hadn’t seen this posted… HILARIOUS!!!
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,26409630-23109,00.html
Dario,
This time I’m dead sure you are wrong!
Infinite patience! Where is the evidence, Dario!
From the mini-series of The Dismissal.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtO08YjSA7E
have = has
mr = me
cough cough
Dario,
I just expect some evidence!
Oh we need Max Gillies now.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bW-cG-qnPoY
Everything is going perfect. I don’t understand why the Right-Libs are acting so irrationally, other than genuine AGW scepticism, but I am not complaining. It could go either way but I am increasingly optimistic that the ETS is dead. Good ridance to bad policy.
No ETS and the conservatives imploding, this is perfect.
If you buy into the lie that a bad ETS is better than no ETS then I urge you to read Senator Milne’s article on this. The arguments are very strong. Be open to new ideas.
The ALP has not ever won a majority of senate seats in any state under the current system. For the ALP to get a majority at a normal election they will need to achieve this never reached feat in three states. Impossible. In a DD there will almost certainly be at least 1 random micro party elected, and plenty of Greens, leaving less seats for the ALP. Either way the ALP won’t get a majority. Most likely there will be a clear GRN balance of power. There is a small chance of ALP + MrX/Random Micro equaling exactly half the senate and an even smaller chance of an ALP + MrX/Random micro being a majority.
Brilliant
[From the mini-series of The Dismissal.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtO08YjSA7E
Im sure if gough had given the word , the mob would have stormed parliament house.
But that would have been the end of democracy.
Tho a bloody good idea at the time
Dario,
Not to me it isn’t! Evidence, please!
Infinite patience. Whatever you post after I go to bed, I will match tomorrow and the day after that and on and on!
An apology wouldn’t hurt either!
But I won’t give up on you Dario! I know somewhere deep down inside you, that you will eventually decide to put up the evidence or admit that you were just being a pratt and apologise!
I n f i n i t e p a t i e n c e!
Dario,
I think you are wrong, Dario!
Here’s a conspiracy theory …
Minchin, Hockey, Abbott and Turnball got together and decided the Liberal Party needed a game changer. So they set up an internal conflict – that looked disastrous for Turnball – so that he could stride out confidently in the midst of chaos and assert his authority over the party at the same time as convincing the electorate that he was a serious contender, was going to get serious about climate change, is a man of his word, and values his convictions above his own political future.
Just sayin’
“Maintain your rage!” to Nessun dorma. Those guys were utter genii
Who’s on the grassy knoll? Wilson Tuckey?
shame ,shame , shame
absolutely first class
Thm,
Whatever rocks your boat.
I thought you Greens wanted something done about climate change?
Apropos nothing much, at all, but cards and sleeves.
Jeffry Bleich, new US Ambassador, intimates that Obama, in his first term, may come to Australia.
Nothing surer than that to piss off the Libs.
Bleich comes across as a very nice guy, none of the sharp and calculating eye seen too much under the former Administration.
Dario,
I’m sure you are wrong!
William
‘may’ come? Sounds a bit hopeful really…
Eratosthanes,
Quite a few Libs like conspiracy theories but the problem is, they believe them!
As for the Nats, well that’s a given! IMO only though!
‘may’
my words
Dario,
More hopeful than I am that you will come good!
Do you want me to post the comment that set you off on your little tirade against me?
I’ve got it ready to go as well as your comments!
Infinite patience!
Ah ok. So what were his words?
Anyone here ever seen “play misty for me”
Just asking
Dario,
Remember this? Yours are next!
THE Coalition faces an electoral wipeout at next year’s federal election if the rebels led by Tony Abbott and Nick Minchin succeed in blocking the government’s climate change legislation.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/liberals-facing-election-rout/story-e6frgczf-1225804771480
Link may not work, need only look at the Australian.
Yeah, Gus! I enjoyed it!
63 per cent of Coalition voters in the cities believe the government’s bill should be passed http://tinyurl.com/ykbtmav
Dario,
Yours are next, don’t worry about any others!
Prefer not to at the best of times!
Yikes…
Cool.
From Crikey’s link:
Bring it on I say
Hey Zombie,
Does this mean that Lannie will demolish Don Randall even more ?
Well he won’t be contesting it if it goes that far
837
Hopefully.
Dario, I hope you watched the 7.30 Report tonight. Just under 300 amendments and only 35 voted on so far!
And this was your first after Shows On’s comment that was proved later to be not quite correct but he “did” have the decency to say so later!
No rea lproblem with that! It is the next ones that I “did” find offensive!
They are next!
Oh Frank, that would be beautiful.
Ugggh. I feel dirty for having clicked on that link…
Dario,
I don’t think that is correct!
Dario,
I feel better now!
836
That would mean that all the Sydney Harbour-side seats were ALP (barring Green victories in Sydney and Grayndler which are a few elections off).
Now this is even more worrying for the Libs
Just wash your hands, guys.
Of the dirty bastards.
Dario,
Remember this one. Funny, no substantiation for this comment!
Still, there is always someone else to fall back on, isn’t there Dario?
It’s just a perfect storm… Rudd must be smiling in his sleep
Dario,
Your comments were much more of a concern to me!
There’s more, Dario!
Dario,
We are not going to get any are we?
I think you are wrong again!
Dario,
Remember this one! Yours to follow!
Dario,
I thought this one was a beauty! Somehow, you were unable but others were!
And you still can’t put up where they have, let alone yourself! Pretty poor form, eh?
831 by Zombie Mao
The author of that article has not run the numbers.
If 1 in 10 Coalition city voters changed their vote due to the ETS, that would result of a swing of 4.0% in those seats (10% of the Coalition’s 40% two party preferred vote in the cities, as measured by Newspoll, page 2). Then if you remember that only those who support the ETS would consider switching their vote, the swing becomes 2.52% (4.0% times the “63 per cent of Coalition voters”). If you then factor in the minority of Labor voters who would switch to the Coalition over the issue, the swing gets even smaller.
William, William.
Wake up! Wake up!
Work to do.
GhostWhoVotes
Your subtracting the number of voters from the Coalition column but not adding them to the ALP column.
Your maths is about right except that we are talking about currently held Liberal seats which means they recieved over 50%TPP at the last election and this is the number that you have to use to get an acurate picture of the vote change.
So 10% of 50% is 5%. And then 63% of that is 3.15%.
But this is 3.15% of people who change their TPP vote. They come off the Lib column and are then added onto the Labor column. So 3.15% of people changing their vote results in a 6.3% swing.
That would be 4% to the ALP and 4% away from the Libs as well though? Net result, 8% swing
The way Minchin and co are behaving you would think they are trying to come off heroine not block a bill.
That poll analysis will scare the daylights out of a bunch of people. Can’t see Turnbull losing now unless the successor agrees to also pass the bill.
Well, not 8% but you get the drift. Eratosthanes has it right
Dario,
You seem to be missing some supporting evidence here! I wonder why?
It wasn’t by any chance because the whole thing fell in a big anti-climax and none of the prophesies turned out to happen at all?
It seems passing strange that others who were determined to make a show of trying to insist I was wrong, had the decency to apologise!
You seem to be above that and I think that that is a shame! I thought you were made of better stuff and had quite a deal of respect for your posts.
This sort of stuff was pretty poor form from someone I respected!
Unless they still have their heads tuned in to Alan Jones and redneck radio all day
And in more boring news, the stimulus is still working…
http://www.smh.com.au/business/construction-work-back-on-track-20091127-jwuj.html
856 and 857
If a candidate got 55% of the vote at the last election, then to be defeated at the next one would require a swing against them of 5%. Saying that the swing required is 10% because the gap is 55% to 45% is wrong because the necessary swing is determined by the percentage of the voters that need to change their vote.
Eratosthanes, the voting data provided is for all city electorates, not just Coalition seats. Therefore you must use the average swing in all city electorates to determine which seats would fall.
I really, really hope that Malcolm’s defiance works.
This poll, if it is a poll, will shock the maniacs. Not out of their craziness, of course.
More importantly, it will shock the dopamines.
Who may gather their dimmed wits, enough to realise that the path to nowhere leads to exactly that.
On that note, I am off to sleep.
GhostWhoVotes
Yes but the story didn’t say seats that “need a 6.5% swing” to fall, it said seats “that it holds with margins of less than 6.5″.
If the margin is 6.5% then the TPP at the last election was 46.75 / 53.25.
So you only need 3.25% of people to change their vote to close the 6.5% margin.
Sorry for the confusing way in which I used the word swing. Don’t tell Anthony Green. He would shoot me.
What’s interesting about this whole affair from my point of view is two things.
Firstly, when both parties announced an ETS of some form before the last election, I whimpered at the thought of more bureaucracy and the fact that an ETS is at best an indirect way to achieve the physical outcomes that are needed – namely systemic technological improvements (efficiency) and utility scale renewable power. Those that criticised a carbon tax noted that it had to get complicated to deal with border issues and other real world discontinuities, but oddly enough the ETS has grown to about a thousand pages to handle much the same issues. It even has built in price controls which in some aspects brings it back to looking like a carbon tax anyhow. And the thing missing is the direct investment. The solar flagships program is so annoying, its scale and focus is just so almost-but-not-quite-right.
And the weird thing is, this lunacy on the party of the deniers, and the equal irrationality on the part of the Greens has pushed me towards barracking for the ETS to hurry up and get passed. So we can give it a paint job later.
Secondly, for all the fuss on both sides, we seem to be ignoring other issues that might sneak up and bite. Like peak oil. There’s strong evidence that we reached peak oil in 08 and it’s only been the GFC that has held down prices. They’re now surging again. A government faced with $150 a barrel oil and even the threat of trade wars is going to resort to some war time measures. And the quickest way to get transport fuel in a hurry is to gasify coal and then do all the usual chemical tricks. The domestic price of coal then rockets and with it electricity tariffs. And utility scale renewable energy. You betcha. And that is without any government intervention.
Global warming is real, but we have even more demanding short term problems. And its easy to get focused on one thing and ignore how trends in technology, oil production, water and so on can suddenly make the world look a whole different place in a hurry. Yeah, and being more efficient and self sufficient in energy puts us in a better place regardless of what happens.
Before shutting down for the night, I would just like to apologise to any posters and readers I may have offended by taking Dario to task in such a concerted and juvenile manner.
That includes Dario who probably quite sensibly in one way ignored my efforts to goad him into an apology that I still feel he owes me but cannot find it in himself to do so.
I understand why you may feel that you can’t but I offer one to you!
I also apologise to William for misusing the privilege that we have in being able to debate and put our individual points forward and to engage in the sometimes robust cut and thrust that can be a feature of this site.
I do try and not let any comments I make here be directed at others on a personal level and although I have been subjected to it on a number of occasions which I have resented, I have also been guilty of over-reacting and having a shot back myself on a few occasions.
For that I also apologise and shall try and develop a coping strategy that doesn’t mean that I have to avoid logging on to PB at all!
I also hope that people become more aware of how cutting some of the posts here that are directed at the person rather than the opinion or argument they put forward can be! It detracts from a great site.
There are other sites that seem to think that that is acceptable and some people may feel more at home there!
Cheers, Scorpio.
865
Eratosthanes, the margin is the swing. A seat sitting on a margin of 6.5% requires a swing of 6.5% to fall.
For example, to quote Possum Comitatus
As can be seen from Greenway’s Wikipedia page, Louise Markus got 54.5% of the vote. Therefore her margin (pre-redistribution) is 4.5% and the swing required to defeat her is 4.5%.
Although I don’t have a clue what dispute you’re talking about, Scorpio (as I fell asleep on the sofa for a few hours tonight), well said.
What hope have the Liberals got with supporters like this?
I am awake again.
Hells Teeth, Scorpio!
Are you to be joining the Mad Monk, once he awakes from his trance and begins his self flagellation? Readily urged on by Pell. Who of course loves his subjects, saves him after all from examining his own conscience.
You did nothing to Dario. Who needs the confessional himself, from time to time.
Say five Our Fathers and three Hail Marys.
Then you will be absolved.
Will this be Sloppy Joe’s Campaign Song ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-hnswlc45p4
Post up on the NSW Nielsen poll.
You would hate to say this, but how good is it to wake up with this being reported in the OO:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/liberals-facing-election-rout/story-e6frgczf-1225804771480
But then again, this is terrible news. You have to hand it to these donkeys to do the wRONg thing by the nation:
1. By denying the nation the first step towards rectifying the CC
2. By denying the nation a credible and strong opposition.
I suspect Turnbull will ‘win’ the leadership ballot. I’ve seen no evidence that suggestions otherwise are any more than squealing coming from the mad denialist faction of the Liberal Party. I also don’t believe the majority of the party room would be so idiotic as to elect Abbot leader.
It will make the eventual summer reshuffle interesting.
No, they’ll make Hockey leader.
I came out of Hornsby Westfield on Thursday night and the Bradfield candidate’s army of volunteers was out as usual handing out ‘literature’ and I wanted to go over and ask if he was not having second thoughts? Did he still seriously want to give up a well paying job to go and join that mob of idiots and spend 9 years sitting on the opposition back benches? I decided it would be cruel as would asking what the literature said about climate change and had it been reprinted in the last 5 days?
I heard on ABC Radio this morning of a Galaxy Poll being the first poll after the Liberals meltdown and that the numbers are supporting Turnbull’s stand. But I cant find any links to it. In addition, there was the Newspoll analysis i posted earlier that said the Liberals face a wipe-out.
If so, i just wonder will Turnbull commission a private Newspoll to be out by Sunday night so that he has all the ammunition he needed to force a vote in the Senate on Monday as well as for Tuesday showdown. Money should be no object to Malcolm.
Well I don’t think so but we’ll see. In any case, Hockey is a dud. He bungles almost every media interview he does and will not stand up in the pressure of an election campaign.
Finns, is it this one?
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,26411054-3102,00.html
Incidentally the poll shows ALP 2PP support in Queensland at 54/46.
Itep, TQ, i think that’s the one. For some reason, i couldnt open the Courier site earlier.
Btw; Abbott has admitted himself few days ago that he believes he is too polarised not electable. If they do elect Abbott, it will a political harakiri of the first order.
Do you really think the Libs are stupid enough to be led by Abbott…?
Libs want the Hockey unity ticket because even they have enough intelligence to realise People Skills isn’t electable.
Oh really? Wow. I thought Abbott was deluded in to thinking he could be the next PM…
Of those Liberals who have quit they have are some characteristics that seperate them from the rest – that is a certain meanness and nastiness.
Music to Turnbull’s ears:
No I don’t. I clearly said I think Turnbull will retain the leadership along similar numbers to the voting on the CPRS deal.
“Five signs the old guard are weaker than they look”, this morning’s blog by The Piping Shrike ,resonates with a more insightful, informed perspective than the ranitng of the MSM. And Andrew Elder’s blog yesterday scathingly dissecting Peter van O’s column is also well worth the read.
54% 2PP is not a 4% increase on the election
EHS = Eliminate Hockey Scheme is on. This morning Combe on ABC AM tightened the screw on Hockey further after Gillard yesterday. Peter Hartcher provides the fuel:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/devil-of-a-decision-for-liberals-latest-hope-20091127-jwvx.html
If he accepts the last condition, he’s a dead meat before he even started, Rudd will mince him.
Andrew,
They may be talking about the Queensland vote.
It was in QLD.
So Thatcher and Howard are both on the Turnbull side? Wow, the Liberals are more conservative than them?!
Exactly, and it’d mean that Dutton, Andrew Lamming and Michael Johnston would all lose their seats, assuming Dutton had one to start with!
What would those staunch monarchists Tony Abbott and Nick Minchin think of the Queen promoting action to alleviate climate change at the Commonwealth Heads Of Govt Meeting last night?
According to Sophie Morebella, the Liberals have plenty of talent to choose from to replace Turnbull.
And they’ll have even less talent after the next election, quite a bit less!
Whichever way it goes, Rudd is the winner!
Turnball holds on: the ETS gets through, the Liberals are still divided.
Hockey does a grubby deal with Minchin and dumps his support for the ETS in exchange for the prize – Rudd accuses him of selling out and not being a true believer in climate change.
Abbott gets up – the loony right are in control, the Libs can be successfully painted as climate change do nothings.
Evan14 #894
I was surprised Dutton held his seat in 07 (was at a large function in his electorate in Jan 07 & he even had elderly former rusted-on Libs off-side) – as much on the nose in his electorate as Brough was in his. What’s wrong with the Libs that they see as future leaders relatively young men who’ve managed to alienate their electorates’ core Liberals, esp in the 60+ age group?
# 895 Yeah! Almost wet myself laughing a few minutes ago when I read it on ABC “Just In”. Logged in to see if anyone had posted it. Stand by for Penny’s Mob’s rubbing Tory noses in it on Monday! Onya Lilibet!
Turnbull at $5 looks rather good…
I’m starting to believe (!) he’ll pull through this. Though the big if is whether he’ll be spilled again another time before the election. lol
Bob1234. Don’t forget Angela Merkel, Sarkosy (“sp), Swartzenegger & a host of other Conservative leaders worldwide.
Well, I guess we’ll see what the true core vote is for the Liberals in the this weekend’s Newspoll.
No leader, no direction, no ethics, no party and a major policy at odds with their own voters and diametrically opposed to the community’s thinking: only the Rusted Ons would admit to wanting to vote for them.
Mexicanbeemer – way back at 788 (this blog moves so fast, you turn around and it’s 3 pages later!)
I imagine the Queen would have been asleep, it would have been around 1 or 2am in London.
And for all you young whippersnappers – it was a surreal day – you had to be there! The atmosphere in Canberra was electric.
Is Newspoll this weekend or next weekend?
GB
That article was spot on, except for saying that people are increasingly believing Rann (they are increasingly saying they don’t care even if he lied, after all Bill got away with lying and was still very popular). And I don’t think Michael Abbott would get paid $5000 a day.
The Libs here were pretty smart and didn’t comment on Rann except for saying no to a parl inquiry into Rann which was smart too.
They used the momentum and released their plan for the railyard site, which was to put in a multi-purpose stadium and entertainment centre instead of moving the RAH there. You could argue that it was a bit of a fantasy but it has gone down well and given them publicity as having some ideas.
The Libs here are pretty chirpy at the moment.
You sound it.
The tone of the reporting in the MSM is certainly beginning to shift Turnbull’s way.
1. Both Paul Kelly and Laurie Oakes confirm that Turnbull position on the ETS was the majority view from the Party room. This calls bullshit on the meme eminating from the Minchin camp.
2. The Newspoll figures are devastating for the CC deniers. Their negative arguments about the policy’s popularity have vapourised.
3. Suspicion is emerging that the whole intantaneous phone/fax/email campaign from alleged rusted ons may have been contrived.
4. A realisation that the Libs need more than their traditional vote to win an election.
5. Growing admiration for Turnbull’s “ballsy” crash through style.
If this weekends Newspoll is positive for Turnbull, he will emerge triumphant.
903 – Thanks Dio.
To me, here in Vic, it seems as though there was this massive blast of publicity for a day or two after Sunday night’s program then zip. The question marks started appearing when 7 shut up shop on it and let Michelle go. Strange.
The Liberal Party of today is looking at lot like the UAP of yester year.
The loss of a strong leader…a string of failed leaders…electoral difficulties…internal instability…
Turnbull as the new Evatt!
Both men consider/ed Governor Bligh as the victim of utterly unscrupulous armed money& Power-hungry scoundrels who later earned the latter part of Macquarie’s statement that there were two types of people in NSW, “those who are convicts and those who should have been.”
Both CA victims; Evatt of Groupers, Turnbull of NeoGroupers. Evatt rolled the Groupers in Hobart 1955; sending the ALP into long, dark Opposition. Will Turnbull roll the NeoGroupers on Tuesday? Will Joe Hockey become the Liberals’ Arthur (“Cocky”) Calwell?
Take Miranda’s revelation about Rupe’s WSJ Asia, http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/liberals-wallow-in-sceptic-tank-20091127-jwre.html
together with
Henderson’s http://www.smh.com.au/national/holding-liberalism-together-20091127-jww5.html and another somewhere (Fairfax, I think) which does list the Liberals’ RCs and mention the ALP 1955, as well as the “Shock Jocks’” stirring up this week’s flood of anti-CPRS faxes, emails & phone calls, and you begin to realise just how grave this unholy alliance of NeoGroupers, Murdoch Media and RW shock-jocks really is.
But, hey! Ain’t it great being a Political Tragic right now, especially when it’s the Liberal Party that’s being destroyed! (Sorry Glen, GP etc; but it’s the Liberals’ turn!)
Glen i think Turnbull’s ballsy effort has earnt him much respect. If I wasn’t a rusted on ALP I would vote for him, before any minor party. Go Malcolm, the force is with you
OzPol
I like the Evatt analogy, and the effects thereof.
Perhaps Billy Hughes is also worthy of comparison?
It may have earnt him some respect, but he is still well in the negative on my blotting book. Emailgate and the AS beat ups were unforgivable.
Allan Moyes. Her Maj isn’t in London! She’s in the Caribbean & her remarks were to CHOGM. (Don’t know what time it is there)
GG
I assume positive means his approval ratings go up but the Lib vote goes down. It’s certainly going to be a huge Newspoll. I hope they have polling that confirms what the OO is saying about the wipeout the Libs face if they oppose the ETS.
Why the OO is only saying now what we’ve been saying for ages is beyond me. The OO’s appalling War on Science and Climate Change is bearing a very poisonous fruit and a lot of butchered chickens are coming home to roost. I hope Chris Mitchell is happy.
I disagree about Turnbull. I think he’s dead.
Minchin is the ring leader, the chief urger, the one who mixed the cool aid for the other deniers. The libs are going to have to expel some of those who have damaged the party so deeply.
I would not be surprised if turnbull prevails next week. The alternative is so ferkin stoopid, even for the libs. Even for the mad monk. But the rift will endure for years no matter what they say. And the voters wait to give their verdict.
Anyway they have the cool aid mixed and ready to go.
Go ahead liberals make our day – take a good looong drink !
Leadership flux spells doom: Lib senator
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/leadership-flux-spells-doom-lib-senator-20091128-jxfl.html
gus, diog is never happier with anything keeps hurting his bum
Or to paraphrase Janet Albrechtsen about Turnbull “It’s Game Over!”.
http://smosapparel.com.au/images/products/description/74.jpg
What happened to Game On? LOL!!!
Another fearless prediction from Herr Diog. Predicting, yes he is very good at, wRONgs, he is even better.
I still don’t think the Libs will split. Unlike Labor, Libs are free to vote against the party line.
Finns
I’m not taking sides. I’m just calling how I see it.
I’m Fair and Balanced.
Diogs,
The data from that Newspoll analysis is from September. A bit strange that News is trotting it out now. However, might be more evidence that the worms are turning in Murdoch land.
Diog, we know, balancedly sitting on the fence, as usual. Bum hurting, as usual.
OzPol
1975 I think Allan was referring to. Not the speech she gave in T&T.
GG
It’s the old Oscar Wilde saying
ROFLOL
Diog, is that what the Bishop said to the Actress?
The “Liberal party” (laughingly called) is so divided that, even if Turnbull does pull through next week, the resentment, whiteanting and destabilising will intensify.
The nutbag element against which Turnbull is pitted is too eccentric and stubborn in its attitudes to allow the Liberal Party to move forward. Minchin and his wingnut ilk cannot accept that they lost the last election. They cannot accept that the public demands action on climate change. They don’t accept last week’s defeat of a spill motion. They don’t accept the validity of Australia’s Prime Minister (they hate his very guts). They do not accept the validity of anything except their own eccentric brand of “economics” and IR. And most of all, they don’t accept that man’s activities are contributing to climate change.
These are real right-wing crazies. While ever they remain in numbers in the party’s support base and in the upper echelons of party influence, the Liberals will not be allowed to progress in the manner Turnbull envisions. They’re a dead weight holding them back. And not a passive dead weight: an actively malicious, destructive, self-interested fifth column.
Turnbull must be quietly ruing the day he became mixed up with such a menagerie of extremists and misfits.
The Shadow Cabinet isn’t though, so either they will need to suck it up or it will be a loaded Cabinet. The latter is not good for long term harmony.
Kohler writing in the eureka report. Its a paid site so cannot post the link. Here is the article though
Cuppa, its the born to rule mentality combined with nuttiness
The thing about the Conservatatives claiming heaps of letters from angry people may not be as it seem.
I once had an interesting conversation with a person who used to work in a Government Media Unit and i asked how many letters would they receive and this person said it varied depending on what issues were in the media.
She then remarked it can be bemusing for you get little campaigns where you might get 50 letters but only 10 authors and all the letters were written out the same and come either from the same address or a set of locations that are all close to one another.
And what she found really bemusing was when they claimed they there Labour voters and that they would never vote Labour again, she found this statement used a great deal from areas that were actually really strong Liberal booths.
Dont place too much hope on those jelly knee donkeys. If Newspolls comes out with a set of good numbers for Turnbull and His Liberal Party on Moday, those donkeys will simply tug their tail between their legs and trotting back to Turnbull: “Please sir, please stay”.
Love it
Good morning Dario!
Please read post 867!
Excellent post by Piping Shrike. Recommended reading!
http://www.pipingshrike.com/
The right wing shock jocks do seem to be drumming up a grass roots campaign though. This one could be genuine.
Dario, you’ve got it in one!
Apropos 75,queenie and gough
Abiding Interests
EG Whitlam
P127
pp 2
On Monday, the Government should introduce a new version of the CPRS bills with all the agreed amendments to the House. It should pass this bill late Monday.
Then, assuming that the current bill gets sent to a Senate committee, the Government should make the Senate return on Monday, 21st of December, i.e. the first weekday after the Copehagen Summit has ended, in order to pass the bill.
That show that the denier-Liberals claims of “waiting until after Copenhagen” is just a lie.
finns – I bet he has done so. Malcolm seemed determined last night on 7.30Report and if things were running badly against him he’d be looking worse than he is. Macca seems confident too so the OO may be helping him this weekend. Murdoch probably prefers MT to any of the others.
ruther to Mexicanbeemer’s 932
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/11/27/morgan-58-5-41-5/comment-page-19/#comment-363458
What if a lot of the letters, phone calls, emails supposed to be “flooding” into Liberal electorate offices are from mischief-making Labor supporters? It is certainly destabilising the Liberal Party; perhaps there’s funny business going on.
Diog @ 903:
In other words: it was a non-story after all. Your schoolgirl squealing, goshing and giggling was for nothing.
Apparently Turnbull is having a presser at 11:15am
BB, that was Diog’s wRONg no: 6789
And Turnbull and his supporters are quite right to ignore it!
It is of no significance, being nothing more than a cacophony of noise emanating out of a very empty drum.
It is coming from the very same small percentage of nutters that the likes of Jones, Bolt, Akerman and Albrechsen feed with tripe on a daily basis!
A classic example where I am occurred during the 2007 election campaign. Win TV ran a phone poll on what effect the Council Amalgamation would have on voters intentions.
The poll turned up 840 voters who thought it would damage Labor’s vote. Because it was the total of all respondents to the phone poll, Win TV did a bit of investigation and found that “all” responses came from just two mobile phones which had been passed around in two pubs in Yeppoon.
The next lu-lu was a phone poll on voters intentions in the election. The liberal candidate received an 86% 2PP vote and the sitting Labor Member 14% 2PP.
From memory the actual vote in the election was something like 78% 2PP in favour of the Labor candidate.
Turnbull and most sensible people in the Liberal Party know the phone/e-mail campaign is just noise and nonsense. Unfortunately, the rebel Libs aren’t blessed with enough grey matter to work that one out!
Please let it be a public sacking of Julie Bishop!
Outside Bunnings???
Yay! Australia has made it to the official Copenhagen webpage!
http://en.cop15.dk/news/view+news?newsid=2729
Gus, that was from the household member who said he got it from the tweet.
This is sad, he is probably going to resign and throw his support behind Joe Hockey. My dream of Abbott driving the Liberals to a massive landslide loss is going to die.
cud chewer #866
I had/have the same concerns about ETS/CPR; in my case, primarily because I belong to the last “Botany Book” generation (then part of the school curriculum & proudly showed off to “The Inspectors”), and had uncles & aunts/cousins whose bookcases held illustrated diaries of local geology and native plants & animals as well as weather observations, copies of those sent back to the RGS during C19 – some of the many which kept the work of Darwin and others updated. So I’ve tracked the preservation, regeneration and “carbon sequestration” sections of the Environmental movement for decades. I’ve also tried to keep up-to-date with OS initiatives – especially after plane trips over massive deforestation projects in Indonesia & Philippines in the late 90s rammed home the SE Asian version ofr message of Sting’s Amazon/ Rainforest advocacy.
There’s far more to “Saving Earth” that closing down fossil-carbon usage & ridding the world of bovines (who says the Green movement hasn’t been colonised by vegetarians & Animal Lib!). Indeed, we can still have our fillets & T-bones as long as pastoralists off-set enough carbon to neutralise the methane differential (including meat eaters’ v vegetarians’). IMO, there’s not nearly enough attention to (& funding of) sequestration & off-set projects; or “Green farming” initiatives; even sub/urban off-setting. As one living in a Tree Changer area, I hear a lot of My Rainforest Yard v Yours and, given the drought, there’s tough competition for our free tree coupons.
Nor is there enough attention to large feral animal removal. Oddly, anti-cat people tend to become bleeding hearts as soon as the animal concerned is a brumby, camel, or buffalo … and, in rural areas where half the population seems “into” letters/etc-to-the editor, get bad cases of cognitive dissonance …. But that’s another soap-box!
Cuppa,
Nah, Labor supporters are smarter than that.
They are sitting back in their armchairs eating popcorn and watching the fun!
Either resigning or announcing a new frontbench
Doesn’t seem to have hurt Rann.
Oops I think I misread that headline.
Heard Graeme Morris on RN this morning. He thinksleader should be Joe Hockey to unite the Party and that the bill shouldn’t be passed before Copenhagen. He always sounds as tho he is still in the thick of what’s happening on the RW side of the Libs. Still very much Howard’s man.
How can you unite people like Corey Bernardi, Tuckey & Jensen with the rest of them.
Nope, they are a bunch of fluxxers
Turnbull would be silly to resign at this point. He could still become Pharaoh triumphant with the help of some friendly Newspolls.
Our marsupial is suffering cold turkey
If Turnbull wont resign then the spill will be between Turnbull and Abbott. Given the Qld poll you would think Turnbull would win the day. Would the right then shut up?
Hockey would be a disaster and would need to carry his newborn around with him all the time to win sympathy. He is part clown at this stage.
So is there a compromise candidate, somebody party and electorally neutral, a nobody maybe that can hold the fort?
only their lady of fatima is tweeting it.
tres interestmont
Jim Hacker?
Gus, you are rIGHt:
Turnbull presser in Rose Bay, 11.15 Sydney time.
http://twitter.com/latikambourke
BB
It’s funny how you believe what I say when it suits your purpose but lambast me when it doesn’t.
We’ll have to wait for a poll to see how much damage has been done to Rann but I’m guessing only about 1-2% which he can afford to lose.
Times must be very tough at her Maj UK. Why is she wearing curtain at the Common Head meeting?
This from Britney:
So in other words, the events of the last week would just be a massive excuse to get rid of Turnbull while showing how divided the party is.
Turnbull will be blitzing the media in the next few days flashing those poll numbers.
Diog, another sex scandal is brewing in Adelaide between Wang Wang and Funi. Are they related to Sen. Wong?
Is there any sort of on-line link to Turnbull’s presser?
Would be much appreciated if there is one!
hmmmm, out looking for a prey?
Can’t find one, and bloody NewsRadio is playing replays of Lateline instead of running it live.
It’s called keeping an open mind.
Not showing it live on Sky yet, Scorps.
mexicanbeemer #932
This is more typical of webbot productions from far right groups – from LoR, La Rouche, small religious sects (who backed Howard) – than of Liberals, especially “core constituent” Liberals who tend to be WASP, very literate and, in my experience, usually women.
Finns
I’m pretty sure Media Mike is going to put Funi and Wang Wang on the front bench, along with Lance Armstrong.
NewsRadio is a disapopointment, the other night when Turnbull hs his press conference NewsRadio choose to run BBC Sport program
Normally a good program but when news is happening our ABC is a bit slow.
BB
It called confirmation bias actually.
http://ow.ly/FIvb
This is a live cam (courtesy YHA) of Sydney,Ive searched high and low-nup no turnbull
All news links are nil
Who will lead the Liberals next week?
- Turnbull NO. There are too many heavyweights in the party who will not accept Rudd’s ETS and it is now impossible for Turnbull to do a backflip and oppose it.
- Hockey NO. He will not stand if Turnbull refuses to quit and there is no way Turnbull will quit.
- Abbott NO. Too many in his party believe he is unelectable.
- Andrews NO. Was former workchoices minister.
- Robb NO. Been diagnosed with depression.
- Bishop NO. Failed as shadow treasurer and incapable of being leader.
- Dutton NO. Won’t even hold his seat at next election.
So who is going to lead the Liberals?
Think back to when Crean was Labor leader. The dissenters did not have the numbers and Crean’s closest ally, as a compromise won out.
The same will happen on Tuesday.
The next Liberal leader will be: -
CHRISTOPHER PYNE
I just held my nose and read this Miranda Devine column to try and get a handle on where the rebels are heading at the moment!
With people like her throwing fuel on the fire, it is no wonder the Libs are in absolute chaos! The last bit she finished with shows just how far out in fairy-land some of them are!
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/liberals-wallow-in-sceptic-tank-20091127-jwre.html
OzPol Tragic! I agree and who would these people be running to, the likes of Minchin and Abbott, either MP’s like Minchin are ignorance of the tactics used by these groups or they were not paying attention when in Government.
Who will lose his seat at the next election.
Funniest crap ever.
Finns
This is the crap from Rann’s twitter today. He’s actually plugging The Punch for “panda news”.
Pathetic.
http://twitter.com/PremierMikeRann
Crikey – I just fell off my chair! Is she for real? Intellectual leader!
Scorps – stop linking the comics. lol
Bernardi strikes me as being a bit salesman like, there is something about him that screams untrustworthy.
Bernardi is Australia’s Palin.
Oh dear! Looks like the MSM’s interests are focussed elsewhere! Poor old Malcolm has been declared a pariah and of no further use in promoting media spam!
I bet that Minchin and Abbott/Hockey would get a good run!
The Liberals’ new leadership team has arrived in Adelaide:
Leader: Funi
Deputy Leader / Shadow Treasurer: Wang Wang
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26412260-5006301,00.html
The Turnbull presser can’t have been to significant, otherwise it would have been sprawled all over Sky
So, I don’t think he has resigned….
Yet
Definately.
Shows
They will Bearly be able to Panda to special interests, as everything is black and white to them.
Don’t most zoos have pandas? Why the hell would anyone come to Adelaide just because of a stupid panda who’ll probably be asleep anyway?
The film I watched last night, A Zed and Two Noughts, had a stuffed panda in their zoo (mainly because one character hated black and white animals and kept killing them).
Gus
Bamboozled by those puns.
Put it this way, he is a failed financial planner.
The funniest email a politician has ever sent me was Bernardi’s email adamant that the Governor General is Australia’s Head of State. I encouraged him to set up a Senate inquiry to determine why the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade webpage states:
http://www.dfat.gov.au/protocol/Protocol_Guidelines/15.html#151
Who gives a Shoot
The Ruddster says the GG is Head of State
Personally, I couldn’t care less.
This makes 4 days without a word from Mesma.
He’s wrong.
Ok, I’ll ask, I’ve come in late
Who is Mesma?
Anyhting about the presser from Turnbull?
BK, still hiding in the cupboard.
She’s hoping that with all the flak flying about, that she alone will emerge unscathed, still the Deputy Leader of the Rabble Party!
Mesma = Julie Bishop
It is a reference to her eyes
sireggo
Julie Bishop (of hypnotic stare fame)
Many thanks mexicanbeemer
Scorpio
I suspect the cupboard will be bare on the outside when she finally emerges.
She is, effectively, when HM isn’t in Oz.
Hiding could be a good tactic in this situation?
The way things are going, if Bishop stuck her head up, it might get kicked clean off….
TheOz poll: Should Malcolm Turnbull resign as Liberal leader?
Currently more (of 9746) for No
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/liberals-facing-election-rout/story-e6frgczf-1225804771480
Rudd is hosing down an early election. according to news.com
What is earliest date a half-senate election can be called next year?
It would have to be held post-July. There won’t be one however as half Senate elections are usually not good for governments. Also, there’d be no added benefit for the Government as the ‘new Senate’ would still only start in July 2011.
Not sure if this has already been mentioned, but another communist, lefty, pinko stooge has come out of the woodwork.
I wonder if Monarchist Minchin is paying attention?
I wonder if Ron Boswell might send her his Tide Report?
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1141372/Queen-urges-Commonwealth-to-take-lead-on-climate-change
What?! Her Majesty is a member of the World Government? I wonder if the East Anglia university has anything to do with this.
It’s a conspiracy, for sure. The Age is reporting it also.
http://www.theage.com.au/world/queen-urges-commonwealth-to-take-lead-on-climate-change-20091128-jxch.html
Diog, they might not be very smart but they are very cute. Cant say the same thing about you
Well, I tune into Skynews this morning and find out the Queen has made a plea to Kev to take a lead in world Climate Change!
How can all those Lib monachist disobey Her maj
Janette Howard?
Aristotle
She”s retired now
BH
If you are around, here’s a picture of Kev and the Queen holding hands
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/queen-urges-commonwealth-to-take-lead-on-climate-change-20091128-jxcp.html
She isn’t just a member, SHE IS THE LEADER!
I wonder if Turnbull has pulled out an absolute blinder here?
By neutralising Hockey as a challenger, Turnbull effectively flushes out Tony Abbott and forces him to challenge for the leadership on Tuesday!
So if Turnbull and his supporters ensure a spill motion passes, then Abbott “must” then put up his hand and run against Turnbull.
A solid win to Turnbull ensures that Minchin, Abbott and the anti-ETS mob are then isolated and the Lib Senators will be forced to support the Labor/Liberal ETS!
The anti-Turnbull ringleaders will be left to smoulder away on the back bench for the remainder of this term where they can do less damage to the Party in what is now an election year.
The Libs need all the time that is possible now to try and reduce the electoral damage that will see many of them looking for new career opportunities next year!
If MT does get up there will be a ripper of a shadow cabinet reshuffle!
I think as I said last night this next meeting is critical to the right. Lose and I think they then have to shut up, whilst their power as it is diminishes fairly swiftly as Turnbull’s stake rises. The will thus do anything to win this, including maybe coming up with a neutral candidate, so long as Turnbull doesn’t remain leader.
Exactly, so he makes the contest between him and a climate change denying wackaloon who even the Liberals must accept is unelectable.
If Abbott is the leader the 2pp ALP vote at the next election will be about 55%, i.e. they’ll win about 100 seats in the House and have about 37 or 38 in the new Senate.
Whilst ever there’s breath in the bodies of John and Janette Howard they are never retired from politics.
I’ve thought all along their fingerprints were all over this week.
A neutral candidate that isn’t Hockey?
Perhaps a neutered candidate may be the go.
That rules out Wang Wang and Funi. Sigh…
Antony Green sums up things thusly:
Sadly, I think the second of those scenarios is more likely.
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2009/11/double-dissolutions-and-the-meaning-of-fails-to-pass.html#more
Turnbull still confident.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/turnbull-confident-he-will-remain-leader-20091128-jxjk.html
The Liberals would have done much better I think if from the beginning they had a vanilla leader that kept a moderate profile and desisted from opposition for its own sake, and commented intelligently and agreed when the govt was right. I said similar to this at the time and since. It would have gain credibility as an alternative simply by doing very little.
However they have been turkeys from day one and we are in the midst of a Turkey hunt.
I notice Scullion in the NT has come out as a sceptic. Kinda nailing his colours to the mast just before the ship sinks.
The most delicious thing in all of this is that Jones, Blot, Akerman and Albrechsen together with the RH radio nut bag jocs are the wreckers of the Liberal party.
This is a devastating comment from Turnbull today:
So there we have one of Labor’s themes for the next election “Who Do You Trust?”
It’s got a familiar ring to it doesn’t it?
Thanks Gusface, days ago at 924 – I really must keep up! That was indeed what I was referring to following mexicanbeemer’s comments on the Dismissal. But for those interested, it is around 9.45pm in the Caribbean at present. (Insert smiley face, which I don’t know how!)
Does anyone have an idea which Liberal senators are the CC denialists /skeptics?
That’s 9.45pm yesterday, of course!
Shows On,
We don’t know what will happen next week. (I expect the bill to either pass with some Liberals supporting the bill, or for the bill’s amendments to be sent to committee.)
This is only “my” opinion so please, no more flaming!
I may be wrong, but I would think that more sober heads will just see the Senate debate amendments on Monday in the expectation that Tuesday morning will ensure Turnbull’s leadership which will now be stronger because the rank and file Libs aren’t totally stupid and realise that the Abbott road means “certain” annihilation next year.
The Turnbull leadership alternative, at least means some hope of a reduced smashing by Rudd in a general election rather than a DD!
My ‘definite’ tally is Abetz, Adams, Back, Barnett, Bernardi, Bushby, Cash, Eggleston, Ferguson, Fifield, Macdonald, McGauran, Mason, Minchin, Parry and Ryan.
T as leader = min 2 terms in opposition
H as leader = min 2 terms in opposition
A as leader = min 3 terms in opposition
But the problem is if Turnbull somehow manages to scrape through and win he won’t win by much, so then the denier faction wackaloons will just undermine him all the way until election day.
I and others have said that the right wing media if they really wanted to help their side would be holding them to higher standard and lambasting them for their lameness. Instead many have tried to be campaign and propaganda managers for the Liberal Party.
Events are overtaking the dinosaurs. Little homo sapien Rudd is scurrying around beneath their feet digging pits.
Add Cormann to the above list. Others who have reportedly said they will not support the CPRS are Kroger and Fierravanti-Wells, and I think Heffernan will go whatever way the party room determines to vote. Fisher has abstained up til now but I think she will fall on the ‘no’ side eventually.
I guess the right in self preservation mode could do a deal with members saying they will pass the ETS so long as Turnbull gets ditched. That removes this powerful issue from the election agenda.
Further to my post @ 1028,
I meant to add that the Bill will then be passed on Tuesday with Lib amendments and unfortunately for them, “NO” Greens amendments!
Sorry? So are you saying you think that some Liberals will help Labor pass the CPRS on Monday because that will help secure Turnbull’s leadership on Tuesday morning?
It would be stupid to elect Abbott leader, but it would be REALLY, REALLY stupid for the partyroom to elect him leader after the CPRS has just been passed by the Turnbull loyalist Senators!
So if Brandis, Humphries, Birmingham, Payne et al want to kill off any chance of Abbott becoming leader on Tuesday, they should pass the CPRS on Monday.
Even if Hockey becomes leader, I strongly doubt he would punish them for doing what he has repeatedly said he agrees with. If he does then he would just look like a hypocrite.
The bitchiness of the “We don’t Rudd to be able to succeed at Copenhagen” is so typical of this lot. Their hatred is blinding them. The attitude constructively anti-Australian, as a clear majority wants action in general on Climate Change and, by implication, progress at Copenhagen with Australia in the leadership echelons.
They have white-anted our relationship with Indonesia via their megaphone diplomacy. Make that China too with the Stern Hu blustering. Clearly mandated Labor legislative agendas have been dismissed by the likes of Minchin as, “We don’t care about mandates.”
On the “3.45pm” deal they welched, effectively saying they don’t have any competent leadership to negiotiate deals, hence each member and Senator is an individual.
I find it interesting that the self-styled guardians of our processes, conventions and institutions are usually the first ones to trash the lot of them if they think they can gain some real or imagined political advantage, short or long term doesn’t matter. Now they’ve even trashed their own party, the fools, on the back of a shock jock-inspired email bombing campaign.
I read somewhere once that some mad Scandinavian scientist attached electrodes to lemmings. When they went over the cliff they were at their happiest, or so the brain scans said. The Libs remind me of just this scenario.
In their passion to disagree with the elected government on just about every contentious issue (and to punish Turnbull for agreeing with Labor on one of them) they have sealed their own fate: irrelevance for perhaps a decade until the Old Howard Guard can be crowbarred out of their safe seats, high Senate ticket positions and pensioned off like to old fogeys they are.
They’re like the White Russians in Paris during the 1920s, deviously plotting the downfall of the Bolsheviks and the triumphant return of the Tsar. In reality all they were was a bunch of old has-beens waiting on tables and trying to make ends meet by taking on doorman jobs, or driving taxis. The Liberals last, reflexive vestige of power is their ability to cause chaos in the houses of parliament. Idiotic pojnts of order in the House and insane, hatred-fuelled blocking of legislation in the Senate. These trappings of long-gone power are like the grand uniforms of those old generals, the White Russian hotel doormen: they look magnificent, but in the end signify nothing.
Oh, now 1027, sorry!
I heard her on S.A. radio saying she won’t support it because it is bad for farmers. (Which is completely stupid, they can make money from offsets but don’t pay for their admissions).
I think the Senate will waffle on until the call for a leadership spill fails again.
Then the CPRS passes on Tuesday arvo.
By my calculations I can’t see a situation where the CPRS isn’t passed. I count at least 7 rock solid votes for the passage of the CPRS:
Birmingham, Boyce, Brandis, Coonan, Colbeck, Humphries and Troeth.
Add the ‘probably’s’ (Ronaldson, Johnston and Trood) plus counting on at least 1 or 2 to abstain it looks like a certainty that there are votes in there to pass it.
What is less clear, however, is if all of these senators will be willing to enrage their colleagues by supporting the government in guillotining debate. I’d imagine they’d much rather just let the debate run to its conclusion, whenever that may be.
This is an endlessly popular line of commentary but it is nonsense. No-one can possibly know what will happen in three or six years’ time. Everyone said after Keating’s win in 1993 that the win was worth two or three terms, and of course Keating lost in 1996.
I suppose we should all just sit back, keep our thoughts to ourselves and let time slowly roll along.
Did I say that I KNOW?
Shows On,
After the release of these polls today, I think there will be machinations going on at Federal Administrative level as well as a re-evaluation by Libs on small margins and that Turnbull will come out of the Party Meeting with an even more enhanced support level than previously.
A re-borne, Turnbull will emerge as the Leader the Libs have been desperate for for two years! A strong figurehead capable of putting dissidents back in the box and directing operations in a similar way that Howard did!
The anti-Turnbull crowd “may” be as strong as you suggest, but I believe they have now been weakened considerably by Hockey siding with Turnbull, flushing out Abbott whose electoral support and their community support against an ETS have been shown to be too weak to support their campaign against Turnbull!
Malcolm will emerge from this with something he has so far lacked. Real leadership muscle! The anti rabble have lost IMHO!
No me nor those I spoke to.
We all though Labor was very lucky and would struggle to win again in 3 years.
I agree with most of ltep’s list. I would add Payne, and I think Ronaldson is pretty solid. Johnston’s been very quiet, but he hasn’t resigned. No-one seems to know what Kroger’s position is.
I don’t think Turnbull can continue as leader.
Imagine the converse scenario and say Rudd had a brain-failure and insisted on bringing back capital punishment (for eg) and half agreed and half disageed. The half who disagreed quit the front bench, with Albo, Roxon, Evans, Garrett, Wong, Combet etc all gone.
How do you cobble a Party together after that?
I can’t see how he can do it unless all the resignations are withdrawn, which would be a total humiliation for the Denialiberals. (What a sweet result that would be!)
TP,
I don’t think they are strong enough to do that now! In my opinion Turnbull considers he is on a roll and they are just going to have to suck it in and cop it.
Turnbull is going nowhere! He will emerge from this with an enhanced leadership authority. The trogs are toast IMO!
But with “this” Liberal Party and their Nat fellow travellers, I suppose “anything” is possible!
PS Before everyone points out that nowhere near half of Labor would support bringing back capital punishment (probably none would) just consider it as a hypothetical.
Two random thoughts
1. Couldn’t the trenchant anti-ETS Libs leave the Party and join the Nats?
2. What about Turnbull allowing a conscience vote?
Will Turnbull miss any of the guys and gals who have resigned? I doubt it.
I think the Government may try to move a motion saying the final vote needs to be made at, say 9 PM Monday night. That would place an effective time limit on the consideration of each lot of amendments to avoid filibustering.
Diogenes,
If Turnbull has any brains he will declare the entire opposition cabinet positions vacant and request nominations for “all” positions and only accept those that pledge loyalty to Cabinet solidarity!
Some of the better rebels will swallow their pride and submit and Turnbull will pick out what he thinks is the best from the remainder. The Nats may end up with only one member on Turnbull’s new front bench!
The battle going on is not about who can stop a drumming at the next election. It’s about which of two diametrically opposed demographics the Liberal Party choose to represent in the election after that.
What’s playing out is the end game of a move by Howard that goes back to One Nation. In response to Hanson, Howard recognised the untapped electoral potential of the ‘economic left/social conservatives’ that felt increasingly unrepresented by an increasingly progressive left. He embraced them. So wholeheartedly that they were given his name – Howard’s Battlers.
The problem was, and still is, that this group are on the opposite side of both the economic and social spectrum to the Liberal Party’s traditional voter base – that is, the ‘economic right/social progressives.
The Liberal’s problems can be seen geographically. At the moment the Coalition hold a blob of seats in wealthy, leafy suburbs close to the heart of the major cities (normally near the ocean, harbour, river). This blob is encased by a huge ring of red Labor inner and outer metropolitan seats. Further out, the Coalition hold a majority of the extreme city fringe, regional and rural seats. The Coalition voter base is geographically and ideologically at the two extremes – politically and geographically.
If Malcolml wins, the hard right loses power within the party. But even more importantly they will be the ones who get the biggest hit – in those city fringe, rural and regional seats – at the next election leaving proportionally more moderates in the parliament. If Minchin wins, the wealthy inner city seats will take the biggest hit at the next election and the parliamentary Liberal Party will be then dominated by the hard right.
It’s a fight they have to have; they can’t continue to represent both groups.
So at this point, it isn’t a matter of whether they take a hit at the next election. It’s a matter of which faction suffers the worst of that hit.
Minchin had to go now. He had no choice. If the CPRS goes through then the choice is made. The Libs are a progressive right party. A progressive party with a lot problems, but one set on an inevitable move to the ‘economic right/social progressive’ corner of the contest. It’s where Malcolm instinctively sits.
Dio, the problem for the Libs is that the only alternative seems to be Abbott. IMHO I don’t think Hockey will run. If Abbott wins do you think the party will be any more stable than if Turnbull wins? I don’t think so. Mal will put in all ‘yes men and women’ around him.
I’m betting the waverers will see the status quo as being the less risky option which will give them a better slim chance of holding their seats than if they switch to Abbott and go to an election as a party recognised as, and run by, climate deniers.
As usual Bushfire, another high quality comment!
To the extent that the Libs/Nats are taking a leaf out of the US Republicans’ playbook (of playing to looney extremism, “shock jocks” etc), quite aside from the cultural differences, the compulsory electoral system in Oz has surely got to work against “galvinising the party base” by taking extreme views.
In the Senate this would most likely lead to them losing their seat at the next election. Very few are likely to be so ‘brave’.
It’s a bit late for that now as almost no one seems to feel bound to voting along Liberal Party lines. In actuality this would likely lead to a worse vote for him as some senators who are unlikely to ‘cross the floor’ will not feel so bound to abstain or vote ‘yes’ if Turnbull frees them up.
ru
You know how obsessive these parties are about having the factions weighted up exactly. Imagine all those Right figures gone. The Right would go berserk unless they were all replaced by younger ones, and I doubt there are enough left to do that.
What would be the point of joining a party that’s in terminal decline?
The Denierliberals don’t want a conscience vote because they don’t have the numbers to block it in the Senate.
I proposed that Turnbull should’ve offered a conscience vote last week essentially because it ensured that he got his wish, the amended CPRS passed, while still letting the backbench say whatever they want.
Exactly what constitutes the Liberal line at this state no one seems to know.
1. No, the city and urban based voters wouldn’t cop a National candidate. The trogs are pretty deranged but not “that” much!
2. No, he doesn’t need it now that Hockey is on board his debt truck! Turnbull will have the authority to insist it go through and any way as others have pointed out there is at least 7 Lib Senators to see it through!
Once this is all over and Turnbull prevails with the ETS going through, it will be fascinating to watch Barnaby’s performance!
Stock up on the popcorn!
And fascinating to see what happens to QLD LNP [sic]
An interesting angle on the factional dynamics in the Liberal Party is the consequences of a swing against them in terms of the ratio of conservatives to moderates that would be left in the Coalition party room.
The larger the swing, the more powerful the conservatives becomes within the Coalition, but the weaker they become with the broader electorate. I’ve got a chart on that ratio vs. swing here:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/11/28/the-spillists/
I didnt think it would be that strong at such low levels of swing.
Shows On,
This is about winning. No one wants to see an outbreak of democracy.
Diog
If Turnbull remains as leader, I think he will, then all that has happened is a few of the frontbench have resigned.
They resigned, their choice. Turnbull will replace them with others.
Shows On,
I think you are pretty well on the mark there!
A number of Lib media commentators have said something similar. Most of the ansk could have been avoided but this way Turnbull stands to enhance his leadership authority to a far greater extent.
The conscience vote would have only weakened him further!
It would be wonderful to see Abbott, Andrews, Tuckey, Bishop, Minchin etc wearing a shit-eating grin for the last 12 months of their political careers before not standing at the next election.
Time to send another email of support to Turnbull.
Hey Possum
Snap. I was just thinking about that myself @ 1064.
Great and timely post. I have no doubt that the makeup of the Coalition after then next election is a huge factor in what’s playing out right now and why it’s so intense.
Would it be too much to ask for a cleansed, credible Oppostion after the dust settles over this?
BK
Is Minchin/Abbott win then … yes!
Is = If
Erat
Then it would be too much to ask!
If Turnbull does hold the leadership, he will have to be conciliatory and offer all the denialists their frontbench positions back. He can’t afford to institutionalise the split.
I think there will be lasting damage. A serious question mark of stability and credibility will hang over the party for years to come. People may need to be reminded of it occasionally but I’m sure the Labor leadership will oblige.
Now if Turnbull were to win, get the scheme approved and have the mad uncle expelled from the party that might hasten the return from the wilderness.
Most Coalition voters back ETS: Newspoll
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/977126/abbott-leadership-confidence-low-poll
[It’s been revealed that the Coalition faces an electoral wipeout at next year’s federal election if the rebels led by Tony Abbott and Nick Minchin succeed in blocking the government’s climate change legislation.
The Coalition could lose at least 20 of its metropolitan seats, including those of its leader Malcolm Turnbull, Treasury spokesman Joe Hockey and climate change critics Kevin Andrews and Andrew Robb, according to an analysis of Newspoll results, The Weekend Australian reports.
According to the analysis, support for the government’s emissions trading scheme legislation is overwhelming among Coalition voters in metropolitan areas. Newspoll shows that 63 per cent of Coalition voters in the cities believe the government’s bill should be passed, while only 28 per cent think it should be opposed.
If one in 10 of those voters changed sides because of a Coalition decision to block action on climate change, it would cost the Liberal Party the 20 metropolitan seats that it holds with margins of less than 6.5 per cent.
Senior party officials say the research shows a triumph by climate change sceptics would be “the death of the party”.
Newspoll chief executive Martin O’Shannessy says the most worrying finding for the Coalition is that its voters aged 18 to 34 favour the government’s legislation by a margin of almost five to one.
The Newspoll analysis shows that Coalition seats are not safe in rural areas either. A clear, though much smaller, majority is also in favour of the government’s bill.
In rural seats, Newspoll found that 41 per cent of Coalition voters were opposed to the government’s emissions trading scheme b
William, an article stating current party preselections for the NT
http://www.ntnews.com.au/article/2009/11/28/104741_ntnews.html
Eratosthanes @ 1064,
Good post! I agree with what you say and you hit on a key point with the above!
The so-called “Howard battlers” shifted back across to Labor quite strongly at the last election. Turnbull wants to tap into that demographic and try and win some at least back, hence his repeated comment on the Libs ETS amendments being about jobs, jobs, jobs!
It was noticeable in last nights 7.30 Report that Minchin when mentioning the Liberals main target demographic, never went below middle income earners, totally ignoring low income workers, the unemployed, pensioners etc.
That supports your contention of an ideological battleground within the Libs between the wets and drys to use an old terminology!
psephos,
You’re probably correct. All the rebels talk about is that they are against the ETS policy not necessarily Turnbull. If Turnbull wins they have to fall in line otherwise resign. Turnbull has a reshuffle up his sleeve and could use that to promote a couple of his supporters.
Shouldn’t Barnaby Joyce wear as much blame for the Lib implosion as the Libs themselves. He’s a nonsense but he is very loud.
He’s the one that’s been all over RW and country radio spooking people about ‘tax’ and $150 for a leg lamb roast. His simple homespun message has been the one getting through in my area. Labor has to start working on the ‘hip pocket’ story.
Anybody heard from the Greens?
Possom’s article on how dramatically the “conservativeness” of the Coalition increases as their overall vote decreases is enlightening. The smaller they get the more unelectable they become.
A perfect example of a Death Spiral.
Macfarlane has come out of this very well. He might find himself Deputy Leader. Hunt has been disappointingly quiet – how about defending your party’s policy, Greg? Bishop has proved to be a treacherous coward and should be sacked.
The big question is whether those deniers offered their jobs back would take the offer? I would suggest not. They would want to “institutionalise the split”.
Bob Brown gave a great interview last night. He’s so much better at attacking the Liberals than Labor are. He makes Rudd look like a wet lettuce
I wonder the state of mind of the ‘splitters’
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iS-0Az7dgRY
Are they in control of themselves or are they like drug addicts?
[This is about winning. No one wants to see an outbreak of democracy.
I don't know specifically what this refers to. I want the moderate Liberals to pass the ETS because I think that will be best for the country.
But i don't know if they will be able to do it if it means putting their careers on the line.
Yes, but publicly so we can all laugh.
Their careers are safe as long as Turnbull is in charge I would have thought.
Some very interesting analysis here! It shows just how weak the Minchin/Abbott camp position really is! Turnbull will prevail now easily IMO!
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/liberals-facing-election-rout/story-e6frgczf-1225804771480
GG & Herr Doktor, hmmmm if Turnbull wins.
I dont think Turnbull will be as generous and magnanimus as you have him. All these talk of not about the leader only about policy are crap. Turnbull knows it, it’s all about getting rid of him.
I dont think Hockey will run. He will be stupid to run knowing they have no hope in the next election. He didnt create this fiasco, so why should he help out donkeys like Abbott and Minchin
If so, then Turnbull Vs Abbott, they are not that stupid to go with Abbott.
He deserves it or a major Mininstry at the very least.
TP,
Nah! It is still situation normal.
The Greens remain irrelevant as usual!
I suspect Macfarlane’s seat is probably more anti-ETS than many of the seats held by the denier Liberals too.
Very interesting question; he could have done that in the beginning; that would have resulted in the ETS passing; but he chose not to. Why?
Turnbull is no fool. On the outcome, I agree with scorpio. And I think Turnbull took the path he did for good solid reasons. If he pulls it off it will bury the Liberal right faction for a long long time.
There’s no way Minchin and Abetz could stay on as the Senate leadership team. Brandis should get that job.
The problem is after what Barnyardaby has said about Turnbull I see no way the Coalition could continue to exist.
Finns
I just had a bet on a horse called Red Amigo, bummer but it led but faded for 4th
Oh and the Liberal Right are not that stupid that they don’t know it.
Brown and Milne were sad figures yesterday. Ranting nearly as badly as Joyce, but no-one was listening.
Because he wanted to lead a party with a party policy. How would it look if almost half of the Liberals in the House and Senate voted against it?
Finns,
The Libs got a good demonstration about just how ruthless and magnanimous Turnbull is during the ute-gate issue when he went for the throat of both Rudd and Swan and cut loose Grech!
Comrade Amigo, the central politburo will not be pleased. down to the education farm for him for more self analysis.
I thought Brown was amazing. I guess it all comes down to ones own bias
ShowsON
I think he did it because he wants to be Prime Minister.
Step 1. Get the leadership.
Stem 2. Undermine Rudd ( that didn’t go so well, pity about Grech being a fake).
Step 3. Bury the mad right and pull the party back to the centre.
BB is right there. That woeful Mirrabella said it through her whole interview on Agenda this a.m. She is a good example of a bitchy Lib woman.
Vera – the piccie was lovely thanks. The Queen gave Kev a beaut smile. He must be one of her favourites. She always had a beaut smile for PJK too.
Herr Doktor, what do you mean yesterday? i want to
every time i look at them.
Which is a pre-requisite for returning to government. Turnbull is trying to suggest to his party that they do it in the first term of opposition rather than the second, third or fourth.
BH
I think the Queen liked the touch ups PK gave her
BH
Dear Sophie’s by no means the only one of those in Oppostion.
Those who have new found respect for Turnbull will rediscover a disgust of him later. You shouldn’t forget just how low he is willing to go to get what he wants. Ute-gate is an example and his previous life has examples. Like I said, he is a mad dog at the gate, sometimes the people he bites are the baddies and we all cheer.
btw, there is a better cricket match going on over the tasman. Pakistan needs 97 runs to win with 6 wickets in hand, fush & chups anyone?
Exactly.
Milne definitely but I cheered Brown when he got stuck into Barnyard over the ‘working families’ rant. Someone needed to do it. Joyce must have awful blood pressure cos his face gets beetroot when he rants.
When he realised that there was a good chance of the Bill going down, he looked like he had swallowed a prickly cucumber whole and was having extreme discomfort as it made a slow painful passage through his body!
That Abetz is a nasty piece of work, watching him yesterday he was trying to get a kick in at asylum seekers while supposedly debating ETS amendments
TP, Turnbull bashing will resume once he got the CPRS through.
I think the constant beat up he has run on the Oceanic Viking was just as bad as Ute-gate.
But now we know that it was the only thing he could talk about while the party was bitterly divided over what to do about the CPRS.
If he brings the Liberal party back to the centre he would have my support, and I would expect him to do everything in his power to win. I’d also expect Labor to do every thing in their power to stop him. It’s called politics.
If Turnbull wins on Tues. he will still lead the party to electoral oblivion.
That was pretty well balanced by the Labor mad right.
Yep – no flies on an Ozzie – we’re game to do anything and that’s probably why she likes us.
BK – It’s unfortunate but quite a few of the Lib women seem to have a nastiness about them. Sharman Stone and her slitty eyes, Bishop and her frightening starey ones, Mirrabella with her pure hatred and the latest is the one asking all the AS questions – she flounces to the despatch box thinking she’s ‘got them this time’. They are humourless.
At least Bronnie has a bit of a sense of humour but she should retire.
Not really. Look at 1996. Howard at no time claimed to be centrist or tried to pull the party toward the centre. He just let Keating/Labor hatred run its course and ran a small target campaign and won.
Vera,
Stick the whole lot of them in a room and you would be hard pressed to extract half a dozen decent ones out of the lot of them!
The electorate sure has got a good look at the “real” culture in the Coalition and their members now that their “true selves” have been exposed to the light of day for all to see!
BTW – Has Joe come out today to say that he won’t be standing for leader or that he won’t challenge Turnbull? I couldn’t make head nor tail of Skynoos on it.
Hopefully Turnbull survives and the ETS is passed next week in time for Copenhagen.
Malcolm then gets a good run in the media with all the knockers and wackos like Milne and Bolt crawling back sucking up saying what a magnificent, strong leader he is and how Rudd is no match “Honeymoon Over”
Then when parliament sits next Feb the AFP report into Gretch will come out and Malcolm will have to resign
Well I can dream can’t I?
bob1234
Howard had to renounce his anti immigration stance to retake the leadership. The party has changed a lot since then.
Ru, his own personal brand has been improved but his Party’s brand has been greatly damaged
Vera you are unkind.
This is supposedly a list of all those who spoke in the joint partyroom last Tuesday:
FOR the amended CPRS:
Andrew Lamming
Barry Haase
Bob Baldwin
Chris Pierce
Conchetta Fierravanti-Wells
Don Randall
Fran Bailey
Bill Heffernan
Gary Humphries
Helen Kroger
Jamie Briggs
Jason Wood
Jo Gash
Judith Troeth
Judy Moylan
Lousie Marcus
Mal Washer
Margaret May
Maurise Payne
Peter Lindsay
Phillip Ruddock
Pietro Georgia
Richard Colbeck
Rowan Ramsey
Russel Trood
Russell Broadbent
Scott Morrison
Simon Birmingham
Steve Irons
Stuart Robert
Sue Boyce
Susan Ley
AGAINST the amended CPRS
Alan Eggleston
Alan Fergeson
Alby Schultz
Alex Hawke
Andrew Robb
Barnaby Joyce
Brett Mason
Bronwyn Bishop
Bruce Billson
Bruce Scott
Chris Back
Cory Bernadi
Dana Vaile
Darren Chester
David Bushby
David Hawker
Dennis Jensen
Fiona Nash
Guy Barnett
Ian Macdonald
John Forrest
John Williams
Judith Adams
Julian McGauran
Kay Hull
Kevin Andrews
Luke Hartsuyker
Luke Simkins
Mark Coulton
Mathias Cormann
Michael Johnson
Michaelia Cash
Mitch Fifield
Nola Marino
Patrick Secker
Peter Slipper
Ron Boswell
Scott Ryan
Tony Smith
Wilson Tuckey
Taken from here:
http://insidethemindoftim.wordpress.com/2009/11/24/exclusive-full-breakdown-of-joint-partyroom-meeting-ets-votes/
The ‘problem’ with Turnbull is that he knows no boundaries. There is no right or wrong thing to do, only what will or will not bring success. A bit like Howard, whatever it takes. If blocking the current ETS was a thing he knew would boost his polls then he would go for it, have no doubt.
The OV if it were in an election year would have seen MT in full dog whistle mode. But I think his personal favourite is to somehow destroy Rudd’s reputation by any means available.
Nelson had him as a narcissist which is not uncommon in powerful people, but a full blown model without a controlling environment, as Diogs talked about before are a very different animal.
We shall see.
When he gets his own way he will be loveable, amiable and so on, when he doesn’t, watch your sundry pets.
bob1234
Thats fine for a government looking for it’s 6th term, but a crap stategy against a popular first term government.
fredn, me? never!
I disagree. You are forgetting that during the 1980s the Liberals opposed Medicare and compulsory Superannuation. Howard ended those long held policies in 1995.
Howard also had to repudiate his previously held views on Asian immigration and say that he wouldn’t seek to repeal the 1993 Native Title Act.
Oh, he also said in 1995 that a coalition government wouldn’t introduce a GST (“never, ever, it’s dead and buried at the last election.”)
The fact is Howard DID moderate many of his long held views in order to win in 1996.
How you can make a comparison of 1996 to now is beyond me! Howard never had a virtual break up of his party at the time like Turnbull has!
They followed Howard like meek little mice and let him do “all” the work which was to do nothing and present a small target/anyone but Keating strategy which worked a treat.
They continued to follow him right through till November 2007 when the followed him right over the cliff!
No, you’re not. He deserves it. He was careless having done no due diligence. Now we see emails to show Colin Barnett wanted Grech who obviously was handing over Treasury information to WA.
Can you imagine the Libs leaving Labor alone if the shoe had been on the other foot? No way, so we are entitled to remind them about it.
Again, I really think this is a misreading of history. Howard had to repudiate many of his previous views to be electable in 1996. If the 1987 version of Howard took on Keating in 1996, Keating would’ve won.
That list has Kroger and Heff as believers but it also has Concetta as a believer. Why would she resign then?
Pre-selection issues.
Agreed.
Who would have thought Ruddock would not only be in favour of the ETS but also be a “true believer”.
http://insidethemindoftim.wordpress.com/2009/11/26/exclusive-secrets-of-the-joint-partyroom-meeting-revealed/
Vera,
I think it will be fun to follow Bolter’s blog for a while after the ETS gets passed!
The loonies there will go absolutely bonkers for a day or two until they realise all is lost and their messiah Bolt failed to deliver them his promised victory.
They’ll all just fade off into oblivion and drown their grief and the number of hits on Bolter’s blog will plummet!
BTW, I loved that interview with Bolt on the ABC. I thought he was going to explode with fury and I loved the little tanty he put on at the end!
Dio – Ruddock is in a seat where most of the voters would be in favour of it. Lots of nice bushland reserves, creeks, etc. His voters mostly care about their area and retaining it as it is. He needs to keep his votes.
Will be interesting viewing tomorrow morning. Have to now brave the heat and head out. Stay cool everyone.
If it doesn’t pass next week then I doubt it will pass during this parliament.
Sending it off to a committee is just another stupid delaying tactic. Do you really think it will go to a committee, come back next Feb and then all the Libs (most likely under a new leader) will be fine with it?
In fact of course he only pretended to do so. He learned how to sound like a moderate, but his views never changed.
Adrian Barath, a test 50 at 19.
http://www.windiescricket.com/index.cfm?objectid=F97E4AA9-9909-BEEF-4F874F5835B841FE&pageid=30066FCF-C9E7-5BFB-9D5549A99EFA6279&squadid=A311E182-D31C-DC86-844A161515C60813&detail=1
Diog, it’s about time for those Cowardice 7 to turn into the Magnificent 7 on Monday and pass theCPRS.
Bolt’s blog is still closed for comments. His editors must be very unhappy with him. They’ve clearly refused to give him more moderators. It’s a funny time for him to be going off-air.
It sounds like all his wingnuts must have emailed the Libs to take out their frustration instead of venting their spleen on his blog.
Finns
But Labor has to guillotine debate to do that and they seem very reluctant to do so without knowing they will be able to force a vote.
Dont tell me they are doing a Margo Kingston on Bolty. Serve him right.
W.B. Yates premonition of the libs death throes;
TURNING and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
Vera, once again you are on the money. MT knows the AFP investigations into the Gretch treachery will undo him. I speculate he wil try to win this battle with the Trogs and then choose the timing of his departure himself. This way he departs the hero in the battle for the CPRS.
I wonder how fast Newspoll people wuill crunch this weekend’s numbers. Given results will be out before Lib’s Leadership meeting Tues, perhaps we’ll see another early release – before the Senate reconvenes Monday, perhaps?
Depending on whether News Ltd like the results!
Apparently, the doggy has nominated for the deputy leadership.
Are you sure? I thought Pyne said he wasn’t nominating? Did he change his mind?
Pakistan needs 59 to win Vs NZ with 5 wickets.
Vera, sorry about my post @ 1152! My ram was full and the PC seized up!
Try this!
You probably thought i was going nuts!
I think it will be fun to follow Bolter’s blog for a while after the ETS gets passed!
The loonies there will go absolutely bonkers for a day or two until they realise all is lost and their messiah Bolt failed to deliver them his promised victory.
They’ll all just fade off into oblivion and drown their grief and the number of hits on Bolter’s blog will plummet!
BTW, I loved that interview with Bolt on the ABC. I thought he was going to explode with fury and I loved the little tanty he put on at the end!
Showy, this is the one that has nominated:
http://www.somebodythinkofthechildren.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/malcolm_turnball_dog1.jpg
Dont think it’s a poodle.
Shows On @ 1154,
I am not quite sure what you are getting at here?
I think you may have responded to my failed cut/copy to Vera which was really meant to have a dig at Bolter and his loonies and mistook my intention of the post!
Oh, so Pyne was going to run but lost the ballot.
No wonder Turnbull is struggling, those advisors he was with in that photo don’t look particularly cluey.
Scorpio no worries, my mind is warped at the best of times so i understand what you were getting at
If the ETS is passed I’m going to outdo ya!!! I’ll brave redneck talkback radio just to have a giggle. I’ll put my absestos suit on first!
The Galaxy poll in the Courier Mail had the Federal ALP on a two party preferred of 54/46 in Qld – sample size 800. That would give the ALP 22 of the 29 Qld seats were the results repeated at an election
Ah, someone just tweets me with more nominations:
http://images.huffingtonpost.com/gadgets/slideshows/1390/slide_1390_19975_large.jpg
billy
I hope we are right about the AFP investigation into gretch, it’d be a nice new year pressie.
Marsupial, Turnbull could do with Possum in his corner
Thanks ShowsOn
Now let’s have a look at this list to see what can or should be saved from the wreckages, I have placed a * next to people Turnbull should have on his frontbench
1101. This is supposedly a list of all those who spoke in the joint partyroom last Tuesday:
FOR the amended CPRS:
Andrew Lamming
Barry Haase
Bob Baldwin
Chris Pierce – Retiring
Conchetta Fierravanti-Wells – This one appears to have changed her mind
Don Randall
Fran Bailey – Retiring
Bill Heffernan
Gary Humphries
Helen Kroger*
Jamie Briggs
Jason Wood*
Jo Gash*
Judith Troeth – retiring
Judy Moylan*
Lousie Marcus – A surprise but if correct deserves a tick
Mal Washer*
Margaret May – Retiring
Maurise Payne*
Peter Lindsay
Phillip Ruddock
Pietro Georgia – Retiring but gets a big tick for taking the right position
Richard Colbeck
Rowan Ramsey
Russel Trood
Russell Broadbent
Scott Morrison*
Simon Birmingham*
Steve Irons
Stuart Robert
Sue Boyce
Susan Ley*
AGAINST the amended CPRS
Alan Eggleston – Past his used by date
Alan Fergeson – Same as Eggleston
Alby Schultz – Should hand his seat to Pru Goward
Alex Hawke – Just when we though he was maturing he goes back to his old ways
Andrew Robb – Extremely disappointing
Barnaby Joyce – Enough said about Barnyard
Brett Mason – Disappointing
Bronwyn Bishop – Should hand her seat to John Brodgen
Bruce Billson – Now i am very disappointed in Bruce of Dunkley Distiny
Bruce Scott – Has been
Chris Back – Never heard off
Cory Bernadi – Appears Insincere
Dana Vaile – Retiring
Darren Chester – A Nat
David Bushby – Another non name
David Hawker – Retiring
Dennis Jensen – Odd Job
Fiona Nash – A Nat, her performance in the chamber wasn’t that bad actually
Guy Barnett – Another no name
Ian Macdonald – Another one who should retire
John Forrest – A Nat
John Williams – Not heard off
Judith Adams – Not heard off
Julian McGauran – A rat and was either drunk in the chamber or is a bit unhinged
Kay Hull – A Nat
Kevin Andrews – Less said the better
Luke Hartsuyker –
Luke Simkins – Another no name
Mark Coulton – Another no name
Mathias Cormann
Michael Johnson – Less said the better
Michaelia Cash – Another no name
Mitch Fifield – A disappointment
Nola Marino – Another no name
Patrick Secker – Should be retiring
Peter Slipper – Should be retiring for Dutton or Brough
Ron Boswell – A Nat
Scott Ryan – Another no name
Tony Smith – A disappointment, hold a seat that would love Abbott but is bushfire country therefore could react to increased fire danger
Wilson Tuckey – O dear Uncle.
Geezus, Vera! You better hit the old sauce bottle first too!
Pakistan needs 54 to win with 4 wickets and a 17 years old is batting.
No thanks:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CisHakr5yg
Possum,
Nah, that’s nothing but a little flesh wound!
Scorpio
Got me a bottle of Bundi been gathering dust in the back of the cupboard for a couple of years. That’ll do the job
which of those FOR the CPRS are senators?
I don’t think they’re reluctant. I would imagine they know they don’t have the numbers to do this. It’s one thing for 7 Liberals to vote for the legislation. It’s another for them to vote with the government to cut off their own party colleagues from speaking. They will wait until all doubt is cleared up about the leadership before taking such steps.
Apologies for not keeping up with the thread – you bludgers are impossible to follow up for someone, like me, with restricted net personal time. Bugger!
I don’t think many of us know what’s going to happen next week – my money is on Hockey not challenging Turnbull. If Hockey is out of the equation, it’ll be interesting to see if Abbott gets the numbers in a “kill” confrontation.
Personally, I’m not too worried if the legislation pass the Senate. I want bigger targets and welcome the prospect of greens having the BOP in the Senate.
Kev wins even when he isn’t in the contest!
They had a school essay competition in T&Tabago organised by the National Secretariat for the CHOGM. The essay was “write a letter to a visiting Commonwealth leader about what T&T can teach the world.
The 16yr old winner wrote her letter to Kev
http://www.trinidadexpress.com/index.pl/article_news?id=161563308
Hmm. isn’t there something more elegant than a gag motion that will do the job?
Trood, Colbeck, Payne, Troeth, Birmingham, Humphries.
Also, Brandis. That would be enough to guillotine and pass it if they are all brave enough to put their careers on the line.
These are the words of someone who knows Hockey is in the running :p
ShowsOn! I knew you would come out with that clip, LOL! BWAHAHA! In all seriousness the problem the Liberals have is i a political junkie cannot name half of their party room making Jason Wood look good.
Actually Turnbull only needs seven or eight new front benchers, maybe O’Dwyer goes straight onto the frontbench.
Geez I know that will at least make Glen happy.
Just those 7.. or?
UNBELIEVABLE: Turnbull could pull a narrow majority
By VEXNEWS ? November 28, 2009
http://www.vexnews.com/news/7500/unbelievable-turnbull-could-pull-a-narrow-majority/
LOL Erica’s “one day is a long time in politics” stated on Friday’s AM programme has become very apt.
Will Turnbull’s retaining the leadership lead to a mass purge of CC deniers from the front bench & eventually the Liberal party?
Jo Gash is retiring. Jason Wood is a complete blockhead.
Shows
If Newspoll is anywhere near the mark them they either put their front bench aspirations on the line now or else put their seats on the line within 9 months at an election. I know which I’d choose.
Vera, as the song goes:
such is life
I don’t care whether Turnbull lives or dies. I do care about passing the CPRS, and I’m more optimistic about that now than I was yesterday. I think the Liberal moderates may be ready to make a last stand, even if it turns out to be a kamikaze effort.
Trood – No Name
Colbeck I know nothing about this person
Payne Is up for re-election in 2010 and the Right have been after head for a while
Troeth Retiring so has nothing to lose and as cross the floor before
Birmingham – Possible new frontbencher
Humphries – Could considering he is in a battle with the Greens for his seat
Brandis – Seems likely
Psephos i wasn’t aware that Gash was retiring, but doesn’t it show just how well the ALP went in opposition for they slowly built a good team that could field two maybe three frontbenchs that would outplay the Liberals first frontbench
You dont need the weatherman to tell you which way the wind is blowing, the wind is blowing turnbull way in the last 12 hours.
Psephos
Are you sure Gash is retiring, I’m in her electorate and was sure I heard she’ll be fronting at the next election
these lot seem to think so too
But then again it is in The Illawarra Mercury
http://www.illawarramercury.com.au/news/local/news/general/leadership-issue-puts-throsby-in-hot-seat/1680085.aspx
Who cares about human life as long as Labor legislation is successful.
Spoken like a true Labor Rightie
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CisHakr5yg
Jason Wood and his multiple orgasms.
I can’t believe a Liberal MP can be *that* stupid.
I reckon the Greens should change tact and walk ionto the senate and say okay we will support the CRPS but we want $5Billion over 5 years spent on Public Transport!
Bang they play to their core and further put pressure on the Liberals
OzPol Tragic 1161 – Newspoll has done it before, “pulling an all-nighter” to get in Monday’s papers. I wonder if they might do half on Monday (say TPPetc) and then half on Tuesday (ETS questions and whether you would vote Liberla if they block the ETS)
Mexicanbeemer 1171 – Fran Bailey did after all see much of her electorate go up in flames in unbelievable heat in February.
I think Turnbull should stand firm, and not give the party-room the “warm and fuzzy” easy out of electing Hockey (who has said he won’t stand if Turnbull does). He should make them choose Abbott if they so desire – I would think Abbott would then be unlikely to survive even until a DD in September 2010.
But there are so many areas, not just the target, that the Greens believe the CPRS fails in.
If the Greens were to support the amended Rudd CPRS, it would do to them what the Meg and the GST did to the Democrats.
The fact the Green vote has stayed the same or risen throughout the entire debate only further justifies the stand the Greens are taking.
I do care whether Turnbull dies or lives. If he lives, the likes of Minchin, Abetz and Turkey will likely be gone or be politically nullified.
Australia benefits 100% from either scenario.
And Bob Brown pointed out very well on yesterday’s interview that Labor is so eager and ready to negotiate with the coalition, yet Labor won’t sit down with the Greens and negotiate.
I am no longer even trying to make sense of the last few days. The Liberals went to the 2007 election promising an ETS, the majority of the Liberal Party’s MPs agreed to support an ETS, the majority of the Liberal Party senators have been voting in various procedural divisions to support an ETS, Malcolm Turnbull has won a spill motion 48-35 with his support for an ETS, Tony Abbott has argued for the Liberals to support an ETS – and now Tony Abbott wants to be leader because he opposes an ETS. If that does not spin your head enough, some in the anti-ETS minority want to choose the pro-ETS Joe Hockey instead. But Joe can count votes, and not only in the party room, but also in the electorate at large.
I have always said that Labor would win in 2010 with an increased majority. Some may now end up saying that this is due to the Liberals’ current troubles, but this is not so. The Liberals were never going to win in 2010. Whoever led them to that election was always going to be the guy that took the fall.
If the Liberals choose Joe Hockey, all he gains is to be the guy that takes the fall at the next election and then he will be brought down by those who think all the party needs is a messiah. If the current one does not deliver, they will just find another, and another. Malcolm Turnbull should have let Brendan Nelson take the fall and then come forward for the 2013 election, at which there will be a swing to the Liberals, for which he could have taken credit and thus persuade the Liberals to let him have a second chance, at the 2016 election, which has, since November of 2007, been the first opportunity for the Liberals to regain government. His impatience has been his undoing.
Labor supporters already writing off the Liberals’ chances seven years from now should realise that even I cannot look that far ahead. Remember, John Howard’s “Mr 18 Percent – Why Does He Bother?” headline was published only seven years before his 1996 victory. I don’t mind counting your chickens before they hatch, but before the rooster is in the yard???
So they are just playing politics. Typical.
With the Lib leadership uncertain till Tuesday can we expect the Senate to sit again on Tuesday?
Bob1234! Put aside the problems with the CRPS for a moment and think about the voters currently fleeing the Liberal Party.
The Greens say okay we don’t like the CRPS but we believe that one way to improve the environment is to improve public transport so we want five billion over five years to expand it or the governemnt has to explain why it is not taking this offer seriously.
Basically it plays the Greens back into the game, the Greenscan also argue that this is acceptable for the Government is increasing support to dirty industries
It’s a ‘watch this space’ deal. It completely depends on how the ‘moderate’ Liberal senators decide to play their hand. If Turnbull directs them to guillotine debate on Monday and ram the CPRS through the Senate won’t be back on Tuesday. At the moment I don’t think this is going to happen so I imagine the Senate will be back on Tuesday.
I actually think regardless of the leadership issue the ‘moderates’ will eventually pass the CPRS. Why should they feel restrained from crossing the floor if the sceptics didn’t feel so restrained?
You just shifted the goalposts. In the former you argue increased majority, in the latter you argue simply winning.
If things stay this bad, Labor will be re-elected with an increased majority
Chris Curtis
I have absolutely no time for Turnbull, but I think his leadership tilt was based on more than impatience. Through 2008, in his milieu of the Eastern Suburbs, the financial world did look like it was indeed ending. It was a fair bet that the economy would go bad (vide – US/UK) and that the federal government would stuff it up (for no other reason than governments are typically not good in these types of situations – vide ditto – although now, as it turns out, the federal government has actually done a sterling job).
So taking the leadership might have been a calculated gamble and Turnbull is not risk averse!
I don’t think even Labor’s been able to manage four leaders in two years
@1201 That’s precisely my thinking. I can’t see the Greens actually achieving anything where they are headed. Even if they get the BOP they will be reduced to threatening to block Government bills unless they get their own legislation passed. Which only goes so far.
On the other hand, if the Greens simply raise the possibility of doing a deal. Take billions of subsidies from polluters and hand it back to solar power and trains. That would definitely have an effect.
Of course it would require one sacrificial Liberal Senator to actually get a Greens compromise Bill through, but I doubt a deal couldn’t be done.
It’s your view, the Greens have another.
Selling out would only do them a Meg/GST.
Pardon me, but the greens v labour voting is a ridiculous conversation when translated to the electorate.
Many Labour voters vote Green in the Senate when the choice is between giving preferences (and BAP) to the Coalition or not.
And the polls back that.
This is because what the Greens want no government would agree to. They’ve aimed too high and won’t negotiate any lower. Also, as you have been at pains to point out, there is no point negotiating with the Greens because the Greens and Government alone do not have the votes to pass legislation in the Senate. An Opposition/Fielding pairing would see the bills lost. In this way, the only real option of passing the CPRS is negotiation with the Opposition alone.
@1203 The Greens might find it easier to gradually amend the CPRS after the fact than to try to get their own Bill through later.
That’s all that I care about
And Antony Green says it *will* happen if Labor retains government, and William tends to agree 
bob1234 #1206
After Milne made it ever so crystal clear on national TV that Greens wouldn’t alter their policy and finally, after several media questions, snarked (very reluctantly and bitchily) that if Rudd wanted to negotiate, her door was always open. At no time did I hear her soften much less rescind that comment.
Why the hell should a PM crawl to her!
As I said yesterday, I recorded it, just to remind myself what’s gone wrong with the Greens.
To blame Rudd for not negotiating with the Greens after Milne’s peformance is a dishonesty of Howard proportions!
THANKYOU!!!
*bookmarked for posterity
*
So why would the Greens do a Meg/GST and give it their vote when they don’t hold the BOP?
Again, thankyou ltep. Hopefully others can realise these basic facts now
The Greens cannot amend the CPRS. The government can, the only reason all Senators are in the game is because of the attempt to introduce the legislation. Once it’s in, if the parties don’t want to improve it, and I bet you they won’t, then that’s the end of it, game over.
Thomas Paine @ 1141: his personality type is exactly why someone like Turnbull is perfectly suited as an Independent. He gets to do and say what he wants, when he wants, and he would love all the attention such a position garners. As an independent, your views are sought on everything – doubly so for him as a former leader of one of the major parties.
He would get to drone on and on endlessly during debates, ask all sorts of curly questions in question time and generally have a ball shit stirring Labor, the Greens and, most importantly, the Libs. Imagine the fun he would have voting with the Labor Government in direct opposition to his former party!
There would be endless speculation about whether he is being wooed to join the Labor Party or to rejoin the Libs and he would, let’s face it, be entrenched as Member for Wentworth for as long as he wants.
For him it isn’t about the money and whether or not he could earn more doing something else. It’s about being a player; having your mug on TV and your name in the papers.
He’s a narcissistic publicity slut … hey, maybe he and Xenophon can start up the official Narcissist Party
mexicanbeemer 1196
I just checked the star Penny Wong’s background – elected to Senate in 2001. Building depth takes time. Succession planning takes effort and commitment. My impression is that the coalition side has had neither for some time, and only scant evidence of it underway now…
*looks at the polls and smiles not only for Labor but also for the Greens*
Bob1234! I cannot believe the Greens are so stuck! you haev a goldern opportunity to take the high ground from the Liberal Party by saying okay we are not happy weith this but we want action so we will get action but we must invest in expanding Public Trabnsport and Solar and other renewable. it is nothing but a win for the Greens for they cann foreever claim that they got this country moving in the right direction.
Instead from your comment you seem to be saying that the Greens would rather keep the 10% and remain soly a senate party that is good at making noise but when presented with the opportunity to not only take Liberal voters but potentially take votes from the ALP you wuss it.
The Greens and any other party for that matter don’t have a large void to be filled, we have two (3 if you count the Nats) long established big parties. We have a solid 2pp system in Australia. All i’ve ever wanted was for the Greens to have the same Senate power that the Democrats did – to keep the bastards honest. The polls show the Green vote has either stayed the same or increased since the last election, as it’s done at every election since 1996.
If you can’t accept that, sorry!
ltep,
You take a grave risk mentioning the Greens elephant in the room that must not be disturbed!
And that is their current “irrelevance”! Even if they gain the BOP after the next election they will still be “irrelevant” as regards getting “their” ETS through!
beemer @1227.. which sacrificial Liberal Senator would you choose in order to get a Greens compromise Bill passed?
So are the Greens in parlianment to make this a better country or just to make noise.
The Greens could if they played themselves into the game they could see a big jump in support and guess what the major’s will then have even more reason to listen to the Greens.
Rudd didn’t negotiate with the Greens because they don’t have BOP in the Senate. The goverment has clearly stated they’re committed to pass the legislation before Copenhaggen. They couldn’t negotiate with the Greens (no Senate n#) so they negotiated with the Coalition.
Bring on a new election and let the electorate speak. Let the electorate decide who has the BOP in the Senate.
Senator Treoth, she is retiring and has crossed the floor before
And exactly how do you know that Labor would continue to refuse to negotiate with the Greens if the Greens held the BOP?
If Labor is smart, after the next election they’ll be open to both the Greens and the coalition for legislation.
If Labor want to continue to put politics before good policy, they’ll ignore the Greens and put the coalition through policy agony.
bob @1223.. You missed my point. I’ll expand. I’m talking about the Greens getting amendments into the CPRS *after* they get the BOP. In other words they use their power over other legislation to get Labor to put up amendments.
This is politically a lot easier than launching their own Bill
Of course the Greens can’t negotiate amendments to the CPRS after the next election, if there is no CPRS to amend..
The “purity” of the Greens will deal them out of all negotiations I think. As time goes by what will they tell their voters? “We DO sit in Parliament, but no-one takes any notice of us”
After a double dissolution on Sept 18, 2010 [to let the Liberals make their postion crystal clear to the public!] Labor may have close to the numbers needed, and may only need a few independents like Xenophon. Of course they could pass the current bill at a double sitting.
No, by supporting the ETS they would be doing a Meg/GST. You have to remember who their voter base is and the sort of vote they are attracting.
Who extracted major concessions from the government to pass the economic stimulus?
The crossbench, and especially the Greens.
*tell em he’s dreamin!*
Who was it here that put it all on the record, that the Greens voted with Labor more than the rest?
Politically speaking.
Jo Gash: Well, I was told that she is retiring, but now that I google her I see that she has renominated.
Bob’s cranking up a Greens-Labor/Lib flame war to try and demonstrate that the Greens have some relevance at least on PB if not in the Federal Parliament!
Good luck with that!!!
If Macolms Moderates take control of the Senate no one’ll need the poxy greens
ShowsOn
There can be no peace within the Coalition or within the Liberal party while Turnbull is leader. Stability requires accepting the will of the crackpots on leadership and the ETS.
Ask Adele Carles if she has any infliuence in the WA Parliament ?
bob1234 (1212 at 4.21pm),
Your point doesn’t make any sense at all. I have always argued that Labor will win the 2010 election with an increased majority.
“There is no recession. There will be no recession. Labor will win the next Commonwealth election with more seats than it has now. Just wait for the real reform of the tax system and the real education revolution and the real federal-state reform, to mention just three vote-winners coming up. The Rudd Government is serious about the long term, even though that is obscured by the strangely repetitive fascination of the Liberals in Canberra copying the state and territoy(sic) Oppositions in their inability to deal with reality. The Liberals will not win a parliamentary election until NSW in 2011.” (5/8/2008)
(http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/08/05/essential-research-58-42/comment-page-1/#comments)
I was wrong about the last point – and only just – but the rest of my post remains accurate.
Bob1234! there is actually no similary between the position that Meg Lees took and the idea i susgest the Greens should do.
Let me look at your average St Kilda residing green voter.
O this Rudd is giving heaps of money to the bloody polluters it should be investing in the rewnewable and alternative forms of transport.
Along comes the Greens this ETS model is a bloody disgrace, if you Ms Wong were serious you will consider our amendments.
1) $5billion to massively upgrade and expand public transport.
2) Ensure that half of the 7billion going to dirty polluters will be spent on renewable power sources.
Bang the Greens are saying well this is what we want and if you don’t give us this then we will make sure every body knows the ALP is the party of big dirty polluters
Now that to our little St Kilda resident.
Gee i love this nice new Tram, gee and i love the solar panels on the government buildings, now who put them there arr of course it was the Australian Greens.
Bang your vote goes from 10% to 20% and you win BOP in the senate
Adrian Barath, 100 on debut at 19. Well done young man.
Crikey, Cud chewer, don’t tell them that! If no ETS, then they lose their very reason for being.
They will just have to create an imaginary one and play with it like my son used to do with his imaginary friend!
BK
This is precisely why we should be barracking for the denialists, so they can destroy the party. We need the conservatives to be political history and Turnbull could save them. I’d rather have conservatives saying totally absurd nonsense with no chance of ever regaining power than a moderate Right party that might one day return to cause hell.
bob1234
I’d be really happy to see a Green BoP in the senate and agree it is by far the most likely outcome after the next election (DD or otherwise).
But the current trouble in getting even the weak CPRS legislation currently before the senate passed should be a heads up to you in terms of how that BoP will be useable.
Right now the Greens can be as vocal and uncompromising as they like – because in the end they can neither block legislation outright nor guarantee passage. But they are likely to soon be in a position where they have that capacity and their stance will have actual rather than just rhetorical significances and consequences for average voters.
If the Greens are going to hold that balance of power into the future – and indeed build beyond the 7-8% of highly committed, tertiary educated, ecologically and politically aware constituents that make up its current power base – then it will itself have to start to play compromise politics. Because the current base is exhausted. There are no more of them.
What I’m saying is that the Greens already have a small but growing ‘soft vote’. This is new to you guys. Managing this voter group has a totally different set of rules.
Personally I hope you succeed in doing so. More power to you. Just don’t imagine that from here on out in terms of your electoral support that it’s just a matter of the slow but inevitable ‘enlightenment’ or more and more people to the true path.
If Turnbull wins we will have two Liberal Parties – the Reps one and the Senate one. I assume that Senators elect the Leader? So Minchin will be leader in the Senate but probably will not be on the Front Bench – how bizarre.
Julie Bishop, locked in her cupboard, must be worried that the deputy leader position will be spilled if she does not back Abbott.
So if they refuse to accept passing the CPRS then crackpot Abbott should become leader so that he can lead the Coalition to a massive electoral thumping that will hopefully FINALLY convince the deniers that they don’t actually represent mainstream views.
Laocon (1213 at 4.21pm),
Good point, but as my reply to bob1234 makes clear, whatever Malcolm Turnbull thought of our financial future, I never thought we would have a recession in Australia.
THM,
So the Greens don’t like the idea of Turnbull prevailing and getting the ETS through?
Much happier to side with the sceptics and deniers and block any chance of the ETS passing through the Senate!
No political motivation in the Greens stance? Pull the other one!!!
Scorpio
For Gosh sake! No he didn’t. The Greens are sincere when they say they want this ETS rejected. Quit making up fantasies that Bob Brown really wants to help lock in failure – he does not.
You coldn’t foll me – and neither would the average voter either.
Talk about cutting one’s nose to spite itself.
Molotov,
I think either way there will be a tendency for the Coalition towards “conservativeness”. The big question is the timing.
I can’t see the Greens gaining more votes than the Democrats did.
a) It’s just one of many legislative issues.
b) I’m hoping Labor will be more willing to negotiate with the Greens when they no longer also need Xenophon and Fielding.
mexicanbeemer; IMO Greens are stuck because they’re such confoundedly arrogant whingers who, thanks also to campaigns “strategies” like “Save the Planet. Go Veg” ad, managed to alienate many long-term supporters. The more Greens are colonised by far left splinter groups, they more they alienate the base Bob B built so carefully.
Much of the Greens’ support came from “split tickets” voters – ALP/Lib (esp ALP) for HoR, Green for Senate. OH, I, Offspring and most of our friends have done so since a good Green stood for the Senate. My “lunch club” is entirely ALP/Green voters – or was until that ad infuriated most of the males & Christine everyone else.
Senate voting stats show exactly how much each current senator has relied on preferences, esp ALP preferences. I suggest, Bob, you and your abrasive mates take a very good look at those stats before you manage to alienate too many more who’ve been with the movement for decades. Sometimes I wonder of you’re not a RW troll, hell bent on damaging the Green brand.
Alienate ALP (& some Lib) 1st & 2nd preference voters, as some Greens Senators (esp Milne) and bloggers seem hell bent on doing, and watch Green representation go the way of the Democrats & other minor parties as most of them go back to backing their HoR party. In most cases, that’s the ALP.
Ruawake,
Julie Bishop is hoping that when she emerges from the cupboard, untainted, untarnished, after the flack and smoke clears, that she can just calmly walk back into her Deputy position no matter who the leader is after the spill on Tuesday!
She is a nice piece of work just like most of her fellow Libs!!!
Scorpio
And a nice piece of toast I would think.
The Greens won 9.04%, or 1,144,751 votes in the Senate at the last election. They don’t need to build on this anymore to hold the BoP. That’s all I care about.
OzPol – ignored.
Of course not, because they would vote for it if they wanted Turnbull to succeed. If the Greens voted for it then all Labor would need is 1 Liberal (say Troeth) to vote for it and 1 to abstain and it would pass.
Scorpio
Of course not! We’ve been saying for a long time that this bill is not a small step in the right direction, it is in fact a long march in the wrong direction. It makes it harder to get anywhere on CC than if we did nothing at all.
We are not siding with the sceptics, they are idiots. But we want this bill defeated and if sceptics vote ‘no’ then we are not complaining. Their reasoning may be flawed but that doesn’t matter. Like I said before the sceptics can both prevent the passage of the ETS and destroy the Liberal Party in one fell swoop, so it makes sence to cheer them on.
Logic 101: Just because it is in our political interests to block this bill does not mean that the political benifits are the sole, or even the main reason for the anti-ETS stance.
Crikey, you could have fooled me!!!
I suppose a part of me can never forget that the Greens’ fellow traveller Ralph Nader helped put George W Bush in the White House (because they do not have preferential voting in the USA). Of course his backers say that the Democrats were deservedly “punished” for not being Green enough. Though the Greens’ performance at the two subsequent Presidential elections probably indicates that even those who voted for Nader had misgivings about what they had done.
Bob1234! If the polls are correct then the voters of Kooyong, Menzies, Higgns and Goldsterin are angey with the Liberal Party and if they choose Tony Abbott as there leader then the party that will gain most from this will be the Greens.
Back in the 1960s seats like Batman and Wills were on the TPP quite marginal yet on primary numbers were as safe for the ALP as they are today and this was gfor the simple reason many ALP voters who could not bring themselves to vtoe directly for the Liberal Party felt aboed to do so by the DLP.
now this brings me back to the present day, the four blue ribband seats i just mentiopned will not swing directly from the Liberal to ALP colunm unless the Liberal Party completely dissolves but if the Greens are seen as tacking what is a worstening problem in these areas namely traffic congession then the Greens will see a rise in the primary vote.
You are not the Australian Democrates and you can always make it clear that you will further amend that CRPS
Actually these last few arguments remind me also of the Republican debate – remember “If you want to vote for the President vote “NO” at the referendum”.
The Monarchists used the direct-voters to get their way. Divide and conquer.
OZPOL Tragic
I could be wrong but I don’t think the Greens organized, funded or were anyway involved in the “Save the Planet. Go Veg” campaign. Happy to be corrected though.
In this current Parliament, the Greens are largely irrelevant. They only come into play if the two independants agree with the Government and with them. Even if they loved the proposed CPRS but one independant doesn’t, they are out of the game. What will be the challenge for them, especially for a personality like Milne if she is the leader after Brown, will be to learn the art of compromise once they do hold the BOP. The CPRS is only one among a number of issues that Parliament faces.
I disagree with Bob1234 on a number of points, this is not the first time.
Eratosthanes @ 1252,
Great post, but I don’t think any of that will sink through!
The Greens are on a fantasy trip where they think they are going to have a substantial increase in Senate numbers and take a bucket load of seats off Labor in the Reps!
Their main problem is that they have already taken most of what they can expect to get from Labor’s left and as you say, that is a “soft” segment of support which could very easily slip back to Labor if they come to the realisation that there is no power or influence through supporting the Greens!
They can totally forget about Labor’s centre and centre/right! They are “rusted on” supporters and won’t shift anywhere!
Bob1234,
I have found an even earlier prediction from me that Kevin Rudd would win the 2010 election with an increased majority:
“Kevin Rudd will not be moving to the Left now that he has won. He will face tensions from the Left because of this. He will be our most pro-American Labor PM since John Curtin. Labor supporters who think Mr Rudd just pretended to be ‘conservative’ to be elected are being unrealistic. The Liberals’ IR laws were dreadful. Mr Rudd could have won without watering down Labor’s response to them. The fact that he did water down Labor’s response shows that he did not do so for political reasons, but because he believed in watering Labor’s response down. Consider his family background – Country Party and DLP; look at his whole demeanour. He will govern from the right of the non-socialist Labor Party.
“For future reference: he will win the next election too, with a further swing to Labor. Liberal supporters are reacting in exactly the same way they did after the 1999 Victorian election, when they said that civilisation would end. Steve Bracks did such a good job that he went on to win in two landslides. Until the Liberals understand what happened, they will be condemned to irrelevance. Their campaign was very poor. If I were a Liberal, I would be very angry with my party for wasting nine months of the year on ridiculous personal attacks, silly vote-buying exercises like the Mersey Hospital takeover and nonsense about union ‘thugs’.” (27/11/2007)
(http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/the_left_is_praying_their_leader_lied_worse_than_howard/P20/)
“The Greens won 9.04%, or 1,144,751 votes in the Senate at the last election. They don’t need to build on this anymore to hold the BoP. That’s all I care about.”
I’m not tertiary educated. I’m a migrant giving the Greens the BoP in the next election.
(Apology if others have debated this earlier today)
I realsie the ETS passign is really down to olitics now, but I still think it is worth trying to understand the bill and its issues. Ross Gittins gives a good explanation of why the ETS is still worth passing here:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/rudds-scheme-unfair-but-effective-20091127-jwu9.html
Gittins describes the Rudd ETS as “unfair but effective”. I agree. It is unfair because some parties are getting compensation that is either excessive or there was no obligation to give them any. It is still effective though because it will achieve the change we require. And it can always be toughened up further in future, given that the structure is sound. Farming should not have been left out, but it can be put back in without destroying the rest of the scheme.
I think the Greens shoudl have voted for it for the following reasons:
Q1 Did the Rudd ETS achieve what the Greens wanted? No
Q2 Did the Rudd ETS achieve part of what the Greens wanted? Yes
Q3 Did the Rudd ETS preclude what the Greens wanted being achieved later? No
The point is it could always have been toughened up later. Over time it would have had to have been strengthened to tougher reduction targets. The basic structure was sound, so it shouldn’t have been blocked.
Read this so we can put to rest the silly notion that this bill is a small step in the right direction.
There is no comparison between a lone voice and a party with the balance of power in a legislative chamber.
Bob
You’re missing my point. Some (not much but some) of your current vote base is soft. When the Greens in the senate hold the BoP and there are real legislative consequences to their stance you will inevitably start to offend some of them. I’m saying that if you want to even maintain that BoP then compromise politics is inevitable. As soon as your a real player it is locked in because there are just not enough people who all think like you to be a BoP party without comprimises.
And it’s those voters (and indeed just about every voter beyond your core 7-8%) that are either politically aligned elsewhere or don’t give a toss about the fine print that will see Bob Brown voting with Tuckey and Joyce against the CPRS and go: “I thought the Greens were, like, all for the environment and stuff?” Sad but true.
Ahem, she was elected as a member of The Greens WA party and is there to represent her party’s policies.
Ru, I think it’s a pity Fran B is retiring. Libs will need at least one token woman in the shadow ‘kitchen cabinet’ and IMO she’s the pick of them; a bit too fussy & “tuck-shop convener” over relatively unimportant things (OK, annoyingly so) – typical of that generation of middle-class female achievers – but cool in emergencies. I’d probably want to strangle her in committees, but want her on my side in a disaster.
“majority from 26″. Labor doesn’t have a majority of 26 seats do they?
The Heysen Molotov!
My point is in order for us to make the necessary changes to the structure of the economy we need to increase use of renewable, this country has no shortage of sunlight therefore we have the potential to be a leading producer of solar energy
Bring the 19th centuary public transport system into the 21st centuary.
Only when we have done this can we start to make the major cuts in brown coal use.
We also need to bring the brown coal communties alonjg for we cannot allow them to be left behind for that is asking fo social problems and these communities deserve better.
The Democrats did it for decades, until infighting crippled and killed them.
The Greens have compromised on a number of measures, including Fair Work, Alcopops, the stimulus package etc.
The Greens obviously view climate change policy as something that cannot be compromised on and this is where they’ll be judged by the voters.
THM, the Green’s are irrelevant in this Parliament and in this debate at this time. They will only become relevant when they have the BoP.
Don’t assume the Greens will get a higher vote. I think Mackerras has pointed out that in “very divisive” elections revolving around one main issue (eg 1975,1993,2001) the overall vote for “third parties” goes down.
And the Greens have demonstrated so far that they are willing to compromise. They vote with the government more than the rest in the Senate. But while they can’t alone pass the ETS, they shouldn’t be seen to be supporting a scheme so weak.
Their current vote poises them for the BOP, I don’t see why they should need to change what they’re doing.
They’re not completely irrelevant because if the Government and Opposition cannot reach an agreement the Greens votes are a necessity to get legislation passed. They already share the balance of power, they just don’t have the sole balance yet.
They wouldn’t achieve anything at this point of time by changing.
Exactly, who will bother reading Milnes argument, all we see is Bob voting with the two mad uncles of the senate against climate change.
1975, The DLP were dying as a political party
1993, This election was over Tax, not an issue that is helpful for minor parties
2001 I suspect that is because the One Nation vote fell, whilst the Greens seemed to maintain or increase there support level.
ltep, that’s the problem. It then comes down to Messieurs X and Fielding.
176,962 people voted Green in the Senate but for another party in the Reps. This is the “soft” Green vote.
Actually historically third parties have done well when it very obvious which major party will win.
Castle et al
I can play that game too.
When the Greens put up an emendment to base the target on what mainstream science says is needed to prevent irreversable CC Wong was sitting next to Joyce to vote it down.
A friend tells me that Dolly Downer was on Adelaide radio this morning saying the party should unite behind Turnbull because he is the best hope at the next election.
That must mean he is doomed.
Bob
“The Democrats did it for decades, until infighting crippled and killed them.”
No they didn’t. The Democrats were a comprimise politics party. Their objective was to make practicle and politically viable ammendments to the legislation of whoever formed the government of the day and to court any and all voters who were dissatisfied with the majors.
Their entire policy platform was the pragmatic call to “Keep the bastards honest”
If the splitters promise they will continue to keep undermining Turnbull if he retains the leadership the only other option is a neutral person if Abbott is unacceptable and Hockey wont run.
It depends how crazy the right are.
The Heysen Molotov 1298!
And if the ALP voted against the potential amendments i raised earlier, about investing in public transport and renewable gee Bob1234′s St Kilda friend would be impressed
The current Reps has 83 ALP, 64 Coalition, 3 Ind. That would usually be expressed as a Labor majority of 16 over all other parties and a majority of 19 over the Coalition.
THM @ 1280,
Christine Milne must have repeated that a hundred times during the latest 28 hours of debate in the SenateI
She has probably repeated it more than that in previous debate and in committee sessions!
It hasn’t changed one vote so far and I can’t see it doing so in the future! We can log on to the Greens site if we wish to read something that we now know almost off by heart. I don’t think there is really any need to post it here!
Those long posts are really murder to page through on my mobile-phone.
If Turnbull wins do we end up in a situation where the righ hates him more than Rudd? Does anybody know the state of mind of some of these splitters?
I’m wondering what the Liberals are going to do about all the CPRS amendments added by the W.A. Liberal Senate delegation.
Are they serious amendments, or have they just been put in as wrecking amendments to give the Liberals as a whole an excuse to vote down the legislation?
They will undermine him every day until the election.
Thomas Paine,
Careful you don’t get RSI in your scrolling finger!!!
Scorpio
If they link to Greens.com or whatever they know no one will go there so we get the whole box and dice!
Mexican-B
Of course I agree that we need to fix public transport etc, that is what the Green New Deal that Greens all over the world are passionatly campaigning for is all about. But as it stands we are getting a 5-25% target. This is a floor and a ceiling. We can’t actually do any more than that because any cuts made by councils states and teritories making public transport policy just free’s up extra CO2 for the big polluters. I think some progress has been made on household CO2 to be deducted but not for public transport etc. There is no incentive to do the right thing if the ETS passes because we will fail with by cutting by 5-25% no matter what.
Can anyone post the first rumours of a Monday Newspoll result? And was anyone polled? I have been polled at least twice in the past 15 years I think.
psephos – I can’t believe Pakistan lost that Test!
The wildcard is Hockey! Sloppy Joe has been very quiet! I assume his phone is running hot this weekend, and the loony right led by Minchin are trying to make a grubby deal with him ie. dump the ETS and we’ll vote for you.
If Hockey sticks to his principles and vows not to challenge Turnball, Malcopops can beat Abbott on Tuesday.
THM! Looking at this CRPS i can’t see what different it is going to make, it just seems to be a cash handout exercise.
From Channel 10 News: Peter Slipper accused of being drunk at the partyroom meeting on Tuesday night! Slipper claims this is retaliation for him opposing Turnball!
Are the liberal party rank and file as drastic as some of the splitters? Could we hope to see a pre-selection bloodbath some day in the future?
The Heysen Molotov #1280
That’s politically persuasive language (rhetoric or spin), not a statement of fact!
Constant review of policy in the light of changed conditions/ further or new evidence, is one of Parliament’s core responsibilities, and I haven’t heard any “except CPRS legislation”.
The critical feature of any legislation designed to fit global action plans it that it is capable of amendment to keep pace with changing global realities; one of which is the probability that major states – eg Europe, USA, Middle Eastern states – impose import restrictions on goods that don’t meet carbon limits; another that all goods must carry carbon info – in tables much like “nutritional info tables on food. If anything will pull Aussie farmers & food processors into line, those two initiatives will!
Government and Opposition can reach agreement on the CPRS, and acknowledge that, should circumstances change, legislation can be supplemented and/or amended (I’m sure I heard that from ALP & Lib during the last few weeks). Evolving global action on CC is a work in progress not set in concrete; involving multiple bills not just one.
Julie Bishop would have a better chance of winning an election than Abbott. She would have novelty in that she would be the first ever female opposition leader, and unlike Turnbull, she would be willing to follow whatever the nutcase faction says.
Have an optical mouse on the mobile phone that pages down…but the posting of full stories rather than links does take a lot of paging down.
Now if only I can get a blue tooth keyboard to go with this phone.
and this looks awesome..
http://www.thinkgeek.com/electronics/8193/
Bob
I pretty much agree with everything Milne is saying about the pressing need for stronger action. But it’s currently politically irrelevant. You can’t wait for huge numbers of the population to have a sudden epiphany. Listen to 2GB. It’s never going to happen. You have to bring them with you or expose yourself to counter attack by those you and I call the loonies but that many in this country consider prophets.
Bring on the day when the meat and potatoes of political debate in this country is between a centre-progressive ALP government and the left-progressive Greens. But if we are to get there we need the denialiberals to get bent, the moderliberals to get a pair and the Greens to get real.
Do you want to be a party of governance or not? If not then you resign yourselves to being a bit player.
Who are the greens agin?
I remember some rumbling a while back but for the life of me I just cant form a picture of em.
the next senate will have more indies than greens methinks if the libs keep going down the road to coventry
Bullbutter. I know people who’ve always voted Labor in the lower and Democrat/Green in the Senate. For as long as the Greens are the largest non-major party, they’ll get non-soft Senate only votes.
Wang Wang in Wangelaide!
http://www.news.com.au/common/imagedata/0,,7226418,00.jpg
Gus,
Absolutely right. No one gives a toss what the Greens think on the CPRS and they achieved that all by themselves.
Antony Green says the Greens *will* hold the BoP if Labor retains government, and William agrees
Julie Bishop has been especially treacherous!
You’d think Turnball’s deputy would be supporting him, not scurrying away to do a deal with Abbott/Minchin!
If Turnball somehow survives this, you’d hope he dumps Mesma and elevates MacFarlane to the deputy leadership, because the Chainsaw is being very loyal(and acting as the attack dog).
Tom Paine, when were a politician’s greatest enemies in another party, not in another faction of one’s own?
Well thrash me with a dried asparagus.
I hereforth will await william and antony’s prognostications before even entertaining the idea of having an original thought.
The village is really missing you Bob
The Greens can compromise and will. Next year they will probably be in a coalition government with the ALP in Tasmania. The Greens are aiming to form government one day, unlike the Democrats. Likewise are our sister parties overseas. In government you of course have to compromise, that’s how it goes. On the ETS though, the ideological differences between the Greens and ALP are vast. It’s like a compromise deal being made between Musolini and Ghandi: even if they both strech their compromise to their limit they could not reach an agreement. If I was a senator my compromise would be “40% by 2020 without any fudging of number in regards to how much is actually reduced but the ALP is free to choose the nature of the scheme (how much tax payer $ to the jerks in the coal industry, carbon tax or ETS, etc).”
If Labor wins in a D.D. Landslide they could have up to 37 seats in the new Senate, and their could be TWO Xenophons (Xenophon and someone else who runs with him on his ticket).
That would mean that Labor + 2 Xs would be enough to pass anything through the Senate. It isn’t a formality that the Greens will be required for anything.
Michelle Gratton in Herald today concurs with ShowsOn and other Bludgers about the fate of Libs if Malcom survives:
Ozpol,
There is the famous story about the newbie MP requesting a seat close to the front of Parliament so he could “see the whites of his enemy’s eyes”.
He was politely told to turn around.
And that would be the fault of the wackaloon faction that refuse to stand down even after they lose a fight fair and square.
Added it to your wish list yet, Tom P?
I’m still waiting for the one that automatically types what I’m thinking, correct spelling, punctuation and all, so I don’t have to type ever again EVAH!
Or the wackaloons are kicked out of the libs?
Just saw Tony Abbott on TV – he had just finished a 70 km bike ride. On his Lycra top he was displaying the logo of biotech company Amgen. I wonder if he reslises he is indirectly promoting their involvement in embryonic stem cell research and technology?
TIGER, tiger, burning bright, In the forests of the night,
What immortal hand or eye, Could frame thy fearful symmetry?
And spot the difference:
http://www.smh.com.au/sport/golf/tiger-woods-released-from-hospital-20091128-jxb9.html
http://www.tmz.com/2009/11/28/tiger-woods-elin-nordegren-fight-accident-suv-lacerations/
Apparently, he was with that “woman” in Melbourne in the recent Tournament.
I agree. I know various polls on leadership contenders have been done lately but I’d love to see a split of teh make-up of support for each candidate. From a few comments by Xanthippe I’d be willing to bet that Abbott would have almost no support from female or younger voters. His views are not even accepted by everyone in the catholic church, let alone Australia as a whole.
The article in the Australian was almost a “mea culpa”. It was almost saying, “whoa right wing loons, just because we print all this rubbish about climate change, don’t think anyone else really beleives it!”
ShowsOn @1331.. That seems to be pushing things. Care to explain what assumptions you fed into that?
I can’t see how Turnbull can be a viable option IF the splitters decided to undermine from here on, it will bring about a slaughter at an election. And I gather that will be one of their bargaining tools.
They should know that they have to get the ETS off the agenda and IF they promise to do that and remain silent after that it might make their candidate Abbott acceptable. If people say they are worried Abbott would lead them to oblivion then the splitters can say they would undermine Turnbull similarly.
However if the ETS is not passed before an election it will be a slaughter anyway. They will have to promise to pass it now or later in order to have any bargaining power worth speaking of. If they say they will not support it then they are wasting their time, Turnbull may as well get up, regardless of the undermining that would follow.
And as Grech recommended, they can whine about the cost of the ETS after the event.
Where? On Christmas Island?
My as yet, unborn great grandchildren will be getting the pension long before that happens!
The planet would have melted before then!
A Galaxy Poll will be out tomorrow showing that 3 out of 5 voters want the ETS delayed. 400 people surveyed. It also shows Turnbull and Hockey neck and neck (29% of all voters) as preferred Liberal Leader. Hockey is clearly favourite with coalition voters however and Turnbull is last out of the three possible contenders.
Had a lovely walk in Lyne Park with Lucy, Daisy & the dogs. Spoke to media – transcript http://tiny.cc/XuZn9 & photos http://tiny.cc/bwi6L
From MT
The Democrats also always believed they would one day be in Government. Every election their leader would say “We will get more Senators, and we are very confident of electing several Lower House MPs”
After the Greens walked out on the Labor-Green Accord in Tasmania {after a little more than one year}, and Labor lost the subsequent election I don’t think Labor will ever go into a formal partnership with the Greens in Tasmania again.
Finns,
She didn’t happen to come from Adelaide, by any chance did she!
Could be a bigger story on the way! Channel & is right on to it now!!!;-)
The greens need to realise that if Turnbull doesn’t get them across the line this time, the next election will bring the Liberals one election closer to reality. The Greens could very easily be just as irrelevant after the next election.
OzPoll Tragic
Well if the ETS passes then I do hope it is heavily amended. Not only are the targets counter-productive but it’s make up is terrible, there will be price voltatility. However according to Brown’s legal advice, to which Wong did not respond, polluters have a right to pollute. They “own” a slice of the air we breath to do with as they please, if they buy it in the ETS. Therefore if the target is changed then the polluters will have a right to compensation from the government for confiscating their property. I think it’s got something to do with the vibe of the article of the constitution at the centre of “the castle”. According to the ‘Kerigan Decision’ the government can’t take their stuff, especially without compensation. How many extra $Billions will that cost us on top of the costs of going slowely (as is states in the Stern Review)?
Pffft.
I have one them, also tells me what to think too. I call her low paw or ai4 ren
cud chewer
I tried to explain it yesterday. Labor will end up with a minimum 36 Senators at a “normal” election.
There will be 5 Senate seats that may be up for grabs.
If the Libs in NSW and Vic get two, their surplus vote will go to Labor, if Labor has enough surplus after their 3 candidate are elected and can stay ahead of the 3rd Lib and Green candidates with micro party support.
Its a reverse Barnaby who got the 4th Coalition spot in Qld.
This would give Labor 38 – half the Senate. X would hold the BoP as would the Greens. So it is not a lay down misere that the Greens will have the sole BoP. Playing with the last Senate candidate elected is sure to make people go mad.
Have we ever polled the pollbludgers?
I’d say around here it’s:
Labor Right: 40%
Labor Left: 20%
Greens: 20%
Liberals:10%
Unaligned/Other: 10%
Just when I thought it was safe to go back into the SMH Opinion section, Miranda Devine concluder her column with this characterisation of a Lib Polly, which I can only assume is a description of some MHR called Tony Abbott in some country called Australia in an alternate Universe:
Of brother.
1352
If only the elections were more like that.
Vera
This bloke might have a drink with you before you go on talkback.
You might get chucked out though.
He doesn’t mind one for the road or anywhere apparently.
http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/story/2009/11/28/mps-drinking-row/
All these denials will make it all the sweeter when after the next election we have a Labor Green Senate majority
scorpio, we dont gossip, we just report facts:
http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2005/Dec-22-Thu-2005/photos/3club.jpg
I thought the assumption has always been the Greens with BOP after the next election is the most probable result?
Greens sole BOP: 70% likelihood
Greens or Other needed: 20%
Greens AND Other needed: 9.5%
ALP Majority: 0.5%
From Karen middleton’s twitter:
A major problem we have now is that the reliability of what is being presented by commentators in the media is compromised even more than it was before!
The Lib leaning sector of the MSM is also split somewhat down factional lines and will report or I should say, commentate on events with a certain degree of spin/opinion which favours the faction that they favour!
This is clearly evident in the reporting over the past few days and makes any value judgements or informing of what is going on fraught with the possibility that what is being presented is not accurate!
It was bad enough before but at least you had a good handle on where particular commentators were coming from! That is not really the case now as some certainly have an inter-political agenda which will colour and distort the historical “facts” of what is transpiring now and what it in the proposed agenda over the next few days!
This would not be the case if they just did what all reasonable people expect of them and that is, report the “facts” without fear or favour!
Fat chance of that, I’m afraid!!
He went to see the Godfather? The Don knows that Turnbull has never been one of ‘the family’.
Hockey off to see Howard – that’s the end of him then!
Hockey will announce due to family reasons, he is supporting Turnbull. And like the Berlin Wall, Abbott and Minchin coup d’état will collapse before it has started. CPRS will pass on Monday. Have a good weekend.
@1351 Sorry you have me confused. Are you talking about a normal Senate election or a DD one? My understanding of this is based on Anthony Green’s analysis. Which is to say that even (or especially) in a DD, you’d need an exceptionally low coalition primary vote for Labor to get 38.
It is the most probable result, but it is not the only possible result.
I understood that the Democrats (in Qld at least) investigated doing a deal with the Greens some years ago, but couldn’t reach agreement on many issues.
THM
I can’t believe that is right. The permits are not immortal – they have a fixed term. When they expire you either have to buy more or stop polluting. Having one doesn’t give you a right to have more.
Didn’t Malcolm tell us today that he had Joe’s support?
It would seem Joe’s still checking the numbers.
And there will be an exceptionally low coalition primary vote. I was talking about a “normal” Senate election. There will not be a DD.
Winston
But Joe’s an honorable fellow, isn’t he?
ESPECIALLY if the Liberals completely implode at the election, so moderate Liberals vote Labor.
1370
No DD is not the safest of bets to be making at the moment.
REgardless of what else I may disagree with, I do think that an increased Labor Senate number but with Greens holding the BOP is the most likely result of the next election. IMO it has nothing to do with being for or against Rudd. After what Howard did with a Senate majority I can’t see the Australian voters giving a similar power to Rudd again now. It is too dangerous given our comparatively disciplined party system.
They didn’t see much of Howard, he was sitting quietly in the corner!
Janette is the Godmother but she doesn’t seem to be of much asistance to the Liberal Party since Kevin Rudd came on the scene!
They have been just continually going backwards!
Heysen #1348 Depending on which raft of legislation (planning, health, height, clean-air etc), and whether or not individual Oz states have successfully eliminated every piece of relevant Westminster legislation pre 0.01am 01/01/1901 (Federation) – a bit hard since it starts with Charles II, February 1667 and a lot of it still survives. If so, one owns the 6 feet -> 12 feet (depending on Legislation’s date) of the air above the highest point of one’s roof. If you’re in an old residential district of London’s West End, you can see the changing “ownership” heights measured in chimneys of differing lengths (often part of the same stack) between 6 & 12 ft to the rim. Pots are above the rim, ensuring one’s chimney pots’ emissions exit above the required height.
Similar rafts of legislation exist covering to what depths you actually own your ground – I once did know & it’s not much. And those (or any) depths may not apply under some mining leases (esp coal).
In both case, governments can put those laws aside by legislation, even decrees in emergencies; eg, if there’s a war, no government’s going to wait around for legislation to pass before it sticks searchlights & guns on your roof, or digs holes in your yard.
Hockey wont challenge because he will be forever damaged, particularly given that his stance on ETS is same as Turnbull. It would look treacherous and opportunistic. I wonder whether Abbott can beat Turnbull. Hope the undecided can read Newspoll on the ETS (although they havent seemed able to read Newspoll for 3 years)
My most recent message to Malcolm is that he should have a chat with Hockey, co opt him as an ally, defy the idiots, and say he and Malcolm should run on a joint ticket.
Take this or leave it. Turnbull the Leader, Hockey the Deputy.
Scorpio,
Here’s the call that set the meeting up http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HSpwk-wuhE
When I say hope, I meant Turnbull will hope. I hope for Abbott for Labor’s sake!!
Wanna bet?
Rudd ruled one out again today, said he will go full term. There is no advantage in Labor having a DD. Plus he has not got a trigger and it is likely he will not get one.
Hockey – Mr Prime Minister. I really really really want to have the top job. How can I remain credible if I change my position on the CPRS to meet Tony and Nick’s demands?
Howard – Simply tell Turnbull it wasn’t a core promise.
@1370 Help me out here.. if we’re talking about a normal half Senate election, what’s the starting position. In other words which Senators would be continuing on? And beyond that, can you give your maths state by state?
Mesmeralda has been absent because she realises that, being the least talented on the front bench, she had better smoozy to anyone who might be leader, otherwise she’ll lose the deputy role
Maybe we will see some high profile independents running for the senate if the Lib vote collapses. It’s hard to think of any offhand, apart from possibly Pauline Hanson, and they would be unlikely to surface until close to the election if conditions are right.
These could be wild cards depending on whether they are voted in by disgruntled traditional Lib voters or swingers/trad ALP who are wary of a Senate majority for ALP.
cud chewer
The starting point is Labor 36 – 3 senators from each state and one from the two territories. That is Labors worst case scenario.
X will still be there.
In a 76 seat Senate, Labor needs to do a reverse Barnaby in two states, to hold half the Senate. It is not likely but it is not impossible either.
There’s no sane reason for Hockey to take the leadership now at 44 years old. If he does he will just lose the election and then he will just lose the leadership when there is an automatic leadership spill after the loss.
Hockey should stick to his principals, if the partyroom wants to adopt a climate change denial policy, then they should do so with a denier as leader, i.e. Abbott. Hockey can just go to the back bench and raise his kids until after the election when he can take the leadership and put the party on a track to adopt sane policies.
cud chewer #1383
The list’s on http://www.aph.gov.au/SENATE/senators/sen_exp.htm Those whose terms expire on 30 June 2011 are those up for re-election.
BK, LOL!!!
THM @ 1352
If the Libs keep going on as they are currently those numbers could we’ll be the vote share at the next election.
ShowsOn, SpotOn
In fact it is extremely unlikely. In any case it’s healthy for democracy for governments to not have a Senate majority.
Just to provide a different perspective on the endless Greens vs Labor ETS debate.
BraveNewClimate is an Aussie blog devoted to CC. They are scientists mainly, and it is becoming pro-nuclear. They almost NEVER discuss politics. I looked to see what they thought about the recent shenanigans and they couldn’t care less.
There was one post asking if it was a good idea to pass the ETS as it would be better than nothing and there was one reply, thusly
It’s amazing that a site like that just doesn’t care about the politics. There should be a balance between the politics (here) and the science (there).
No it isn’t. It’s just as likely the ALP could fall short of 3 senators in 1 or 2 states as they did last time.
If he gets the leadership, Hockey would certainly have some “weight” to throw around in the Party Room and Cabinet!!!
The Senate majority was one reason why Howard got boned. I thought that was healthy.
OK, so for Labor to get to 38 Senate seats in a half Senate election, they’d have to do slightly better than winning 3 Senators for each state. They’d either have to get to 4 senators in 2 states, or get there in one state and also win both ACT seats.
Not easy… What I can’t remember is how this translates precisely to thresholds for primaries, and how feasible that looks state by state.
Latest odds on Lib leader next election
Hockey 1.33
Abbott 4.00
Turnbull 5.00
other 9.00
Robb 16
Dutton and Bishop 26
The smart money here would say Turnbull is way over the odds.
This Gallaxy Poll saying the majority of voters want the ETS delayed and Abbott and Joe ahead of Turnbull with Lib voters seems a bit sus to this old sceptic.
Is it to be on the front Page of the Sunday Terror tomorrow? Lastweek the whole front page of one Daily Terror was filled with big bold headlines “What the ETS will cost you” (or similar)
I reckon this is a bit of Murdock paid for tosh to push for the CC deniers and RW nutjobs in the Lib Party and to try and neutralise the other poll today which said the libs would be wiped out at the next election if they dump the ETS.
ltep @1394 Labor not getting at least 3 Senators in each state is looking unlikely given the current polls. Its how the 4th seat plays off that I’m not betting my life on.
Gaffhook
I don’t like the look of that Slipper bloke, so no drinks, think I’ll give him the BOOT! lol
@1398.. you know.. if the election were going to be called by March, I’d probably take that bet, but more likely its going to be next October and for me the real risk for Turnbull is not this Tuesday but what happens next year. urgh!
Not likely at all.
The Liberals are no way near as competitive now as they were when Howard was their leader. If Labor wins the next election in a landslide, then the Liberal Senate vote will probably collapse too.
The S.A. Senate vote for Labor and Liberal was almost identical at the last election, I see no way that will happen again if there is a 5% 2pp swing against the Liberals in the House.
cud chewer, I disagree. I think the ALP will fail to get 3 senators in WA which is always their poorest performing state. I also think the election will be quite a lot closer than the current polls suggest.
Don’t forget the highest the ALP has ever got in the Senate is 34 senators from 1985 to 1987.
Diog,
Not being much of a punter, I don’t have a clue what the above slang expression means. Would you be good enough to translate, Herr Doktor?
Diogenes,
Just because it’s a CC site doesn’t necessarily mean that they are right on everything. Ross Gittins has a good piece here which contradicts what you posted and I for one, think he is right on the money!
http://www.smh.com.au/business/rudds-scheme-unfair-but-effective-20091127-jwu9.html
I refuse to accept that we are better off with nothing when other countries are acting.
cudchewer
Antony Green has a nice state by state breakdown…
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2009/07/double-dissolution-versus-halfsenate-election-which-would-be-better-for-labor-in-the-senate.html
Hemingway, for whom the bells troll, this one is aint the Herr Doktor.
SBS News tonight said that India has committed to a comprehensive carbon reduction scheme!
Minchin, Abbott and the trogs want Australia to be “last” to enter into one it seems!
We are a long way from being first as they claim and could end up being the world pariah in terms of global Co2 emissions!
The operative word in Anthony Greens excellent article are:
Does anyone think Labor will not increase its vote from 2007?
More like the plastic Doctor, Finns?
I think they will improve their vote, but not substantially enough to gain even close to a majority in the Senate. 35, 36 at best. 34 the rock bottom.
lose the election please.
We will have to agree to disagree.
Looking at the Senate quotas…is this right?
If one is seeking at least half/parity, a half senate quota would seem better – 42.9% versus 46.2% DD
If one wanted to get a majority though, a double disolution would seem better – 53.8% DD versus 57.1%
@1409 Yes, thats the analysis that I started with. But its still based on what will happen if 2007 is repeated. Looks like Labor could go to 36 or maybe 37.. but 38 requires a fair bit of good luck and Tony Abbott speaking tounges during a debate on climate science would help
Hemingway
Over the odds means that the odds offered on him are very generous.
cud chewer
The Turnbull bet is certainly complicated by that.
I notice that sportbet has now suspended betting on the Liberal leadership.
@1412 Yes
scorps
I wasn’t saying they were necessarily right (remember I want the ETS to pass) but it’s surprising how disinterested the scientists are in the politics.
Diogenes,
What did you think of that piece by Gittins?
So they should be. But if you believer the climate deniers, all the scientific research into climate is all ideologically tainted. You know, the exactly the same argument that creationists make against evolutionary theory.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/28/2756343.htm?section=justin
So the Qld branch of the Liberal Party opposes the CPRS – I wonder if Brandis knew this?
Bolta is in The Chair on Insiders tomorrow.
Expect Barraca and the others to talk about the Liberal leadership woes, while Bolta becomes frustrated that no one will listen to his climate conspiracies.
scorps
I think Gittins is close. The scheme relies totally on international targets being set and Australia not welching on them, which I’m not convinced won’t happen.
SO
Bolt has completely lost it over the emails. He wants the IPCC reports shredded and rewritten, presumably by Plimer and Carter. I wouldn’t watch it tomorrow if you own an expensive TV as you’ll smash it.
Senator Humphries/Turnbull backer was on Sky basically saying he can’t see them voting with Labor for a guillotine, and they don’t have a chance anyway as his colleagues are filibustering and he doesn’t think he should deny his colleagues the right to debate. In addition he said he can’t see the ETS passing this year.
So it seems Rudd won’t have his ETS for Copenhagen, Rudd will have a DD trigger, and depending on how the Liberal meltdown turns out, maybe an election!
I’ll listen to the NewsRadio replay.
I agree with the comment that several people have made: Hockey would be completely insane to take on the leadership at this point.
The Libs are going to get thumped in 2010 – it’s only a question of how much. Whoever is leader will probably be terminally damaged. Better to let Turnbull (or Abbott) do the job. Hockey will then almost certainly get to lead the party in 2013, and would have a fair chance of achieving a decent swing off a very low base.
Even if Turnbull leads in 2010, and is then deposed for Abbott after the election, what are the chances of Tony lasting three years as leader? Pretty low I’d have thought.
Hockey’s still young.
The House should introduce a new version of the CPRS with all the agreed amendments on Monday. The Govenrment should then bring the Senate back to vote on the 3rd version 1 day after Copenhagen ends.
After all, that is what the denier Liberals are supposedly waiting for AFTER Copenhagen. If they don’t pass it then, then it will be another broken Liberal promise.
This is what I’ve been saying all along. I can’t see the ‘moderates’ siding with the Government senators to guillotine debate as they’d effectively be silencing their own colleagues. We’ll see though!
I agree. It could ruin his political career, like it did for Latham.
Diog,
Many thanks for the translation. I concur with your assessment of Turnbull’s chances of survival.
Finns,
In your case, it would be “for whom the bell drolls”.
I think it would be perfectly reasonable for the government to say they want a final vote late Monday night. That would give the Senate about 1 hour to debate each lot of amendments.
Saw a bit of Sky Agenda repeated from this morning.
Speers said he didn’t think the ETS would pass but who knows. Then he said that if the Senate was made to sit all day Monday and Monday night the spill could be happening when the Senate were still at it. He then said the Lib Senators would have to go vote for a leader and while they were out of the room labor would have the numbers to pass the bill.
I don’t think he seriously thought this could happen but I’d love to see it.
Imagine all the Libs going back into the Senate to vote the ETS down after electing Abbott leader only to find it empty after labor had a quick vote of their own
“I think they will improve their vote, but not substantially enough to gain even close to a majority in the Senate. 35, 36 at best. 34 the rock bottom”
I’m not giving numbers, I’ve no idea. One thing I do know is that it’s almost impossible for Labour to win the Senate. The left of the party votes Green there.
“Its a reverse Barnaby who got the 4th Coalition spot in Qld.”
The problem for the ALP is that the Greens get a big chunk of a quota in their own right. This wasn’t a problem for the LNP in Barnaby’s situation.
“If the Libs in NSW and Vic get two, their surplus vote will go to Labor, if Labor has enough surplus after their 3 candidate are elected and can stay ahead of the 3rd Lib and Green candidates with micro party support.”
Of course, if that happens. But look at the numbers. At the last election ALP got 2.9 quotas, Libs 2.8 and Green 0.6-0.7. Assuming the Green vote stays abut the same, then for your scenario to work the ALP has to take a full 0.5 of a quota off the Lib vote.
That’s a 7% swing in the Senate from the Libs to the ALP. Sure, it’s possible…
vera,
I agree that would have its funny side, but of course every CPRS critic would say for ever after that the Act was illegitimately passed.
Probably not the look Labor wants.
It wouldn’t happen. There is a principle that votes must accurately reflect the will of the Senate. That’s why they do re-votes if someone accidentally misses a division, or accidentally moves to the wrong side (as Coonan did a few months ago when she was engrossed in a book and forgot to get up and move to the other side).
The problem for Hockey is that, when the Libs are slaughtered at the next election under Abbott or Turnbull, the remaining rump of Libs will in fact be the more hard core conservatives and deniers. They are unlikely to see the error of their ways and keep the party in the unelectable right end of the political spectrum and would not like to put a softy like Hockey into the leadership.
Minchin and co will have completed Howard’s work in reshaping the Libs into a right wing, unelectable party.
What a silly thing to say. The Liberal senators could leave the party room to go and vote in the divisions (it’s less than a 4 minute walk away).
Also the Senate has always allowed votes to be retaken if its clear the will of the Senate might not have been reflected in a vote.
vera, have you not seen the count of incorrect speers predictions- i think its at 11!
His “other* problem could be that if were a slaughter, the 5.1% margin on North Sydney might look a bit thin [;-)] for comfort…(though I would be amazed if Libs lost North Sydney)
Yes I know it couldn’t happen, just Speers waffling again, but it would be funny to see the look on the returning Lib senators faces
I am so pleased that I sent Malcolm a congratulatory message, and followed up with a message each day. In support of his cause.
It was my delight to alert the PB’s at 12.05 am to the Australian headlines.
It is fantastic today to read Laurie Oakes, confirming all I thought and said.
See ya
Andrew
11 is it? I’ve lost count!
Hemingway,
In my case, it’s more like: “For Whom the Oceans dwell?”
You know something Vera @1434, what would be even more fun, is repeatedly calling for divisions while the Libs are trying to have a meeting. Wouldn’t that be the ultimate reply to a filibuster?
So Hockey should force them to pick Abbott as the leader.
The climate denial wackaloons will only admit they are wrong when one of them leads the party to an electoral wipe out. If another moderate such as Hockey is the leader, when he loses they will just say that he was too green and wasn’t conservative enough, thus starting the cycle we are currently in all over again.
The wackaloons won’t admit that their views are way out of the mainstream until the voters are able to tell them so in the most direct way possible, which means one of them leading the party.
Andrew, it’s good that you passed year 4 maths, unlike you-know-who
Yes, but this will depend to some extent on who the leader is. Turnbull has more chance of holding some of the seats with moderates in them, than Abbott does.
I also think *some* of the right-wing MHRs wake up to some extent after the 2010 slaughter. Most politicians like their jobs, and don’t want to get kicked out.
The greater problem might be in the Senate where there are people who are more a product of the party culture and, of course, have less need to be attractive to middle of the road voters.
Shows,
Kim Beazley was interviewed shortly after Howard’s victory speech on election night ’04. Kim strongly defended Latham’s performance, saying that when Mark took over the ALP was looking down the barrel of a far worse drubbing, which would have resulted in Labor going so many seats below the Coalition that it could require two elections to win government again.
Minchin and his cabal are likely to be telling Hockey that he’s the only one who can rescue the Coalition from a lost decade, even a DLP-like splintering. Whether Joe is willing to be Lathamed, I leave for more knowlegable Bludgers than I to foretell.
It would be nice to think that the voters would have enough sense to selectively punish the deniers and plotters…
It is a principle only, one Howard ignored when the vote was taken on the music industry. The ex-labor bloke (forgot his name) was in hospital at the time and complained that Howard had assured him his vote/ view would be taken into account, seem to remember that assurance may have been vote would not be taken whilst he was in hospital or some sort of pairing done. But when did Howard even stick to convention or principles.
The wackaloons have successfully denied scientific reality for years, why wouldn’t they also ignore political reality?
Hopinghagen is looking better and better, now the top there have expressed the commitment to have targets:
Wishin’ Hopin’ and Prayin’
castle,
Be that as it may, the last thing Labor would want, after all this fuss, would be a CPRS weighed down by the suggestion that the Senate vote was tainted.
Because the threat of losing one’s job is a lot more concrete than the prospect future climate change.
Some of them would get it.
prospect of future climate change.
Many bills over the years have been guillotined through the Senate, without in any way affecting their legality or legitimacy. WorkChoices was done that way – Labor would have filibustered it forever otherwise, since Howard had no mandate for it. This bill has been debated for months, and not one Senator has changed their position one iota as a result. The vote will be the same whether it’s guillotined or not. The only questions here are whether Turnbull will ask his Senators to guillotine the bill through before the Liberal party room vote, and whether, if he does so, seven Senators will do what he asks.
I wasn’t referring to the prospect of it being guillotined, Psephos. I was referring to Speers’s idiotic (though possibly jocular) suggestion that Labor might push it through whilst the Liberals are having a Party meeting.
Apparently the local libs are having an extraordinary branch meeting on monday.
Any word on if other local branches are holding meetings?
ps I understand it is whether to endorse the CPRS,tho at this the details are sketchy,obviously
we live in tres strange times
;(
The biggest electoral threat to Rudd is a victorious Turnbull on Tuesday. One with the capability to nullify the Minchins, Abetzs and Tuckeys within the party.
If Turnbull can pull it all off – Labor beware
Same with the sale of the last lot of Telstra.
The Senate is sitting at 10 AM on Monday, the Liberal partyroom meeting is 9 AM Tuesday.
If any Bludgers happened to come across one of my posts at around 11.30am, I will not plead temporarily insane, I forgot to enter one of these at the end
just in case anybody was wondering 
Sorry, I should have made it clear that I was mucking around a bit with that post by inserting an emoticon. Obviously using the “Kerigan Decision” as a legal precedent wasn’t enough. My apologies, I know that’s not how the ETS really operates. Even so Bob Brown did get legal advice that changing the targets later would mean business could demand aditional compensation in court.
The ALP has never won four out of six senate seats in a state and as far as I am aware have never even come close. The only reason that the coalition won four seats in QLD in 2004 was because the Liberals and Nationals ran seperatly. On the same numbers if they had run a joint ticket they would have only won 3. This is because roughly 2.5 quotas rounded up + 0.5 quotas rounded up (through preferences) is 4 quotas, rather than 3. If the ALP Right and Left fActions ran seperatly like they do at UNI that would help (apart from the negatives of such a split of resources).
This is exactly my point. The ALP clearly does not have the numbers in its own right to guillotine so will be hoping to rely on the ‘moderate’ Turnbull supporters to get the bills through. It’ll be interesting to see whether they get the numbers. So far Humphries is already on the record saying he will not support a guillotine. I suspect some of his colleagues might not have the same hesitation though (Brandis in particular).
Gus, to storm Rose Bay?
So what is going to happen on Monday?
a) We’ll get to hear more about a certain Senator’s fishing trips…
b) We’ll get to watch 7 rather nervous Liberal senators vote carry out the guillotine..
c) We’ll get to watch them exchange recipes…
I agree ltep. It is a difficult thing for a Party member to vote in support of the other side to cut off Parliamentary debate, before the (allegedly) definitive Party meeting takes place. Another step up from simply crossing the floor (in itself no small matter).
Surely those moderate Liberal senators must realise that if the amended CPRS doesn’t go through, then a Labor + Green CPRS Mark II would be a much harsher set of laws on big polluters, and perhaps even set higher initial targets?
Or to put it another way, what is the point of opposing the amended CPRS now if they are just going to lose an election over it and then vote for it in the next Senate!
When a division is called the bells ring and the lights flash in every corner of the building for four minutes. The Opposition Party room is about 150m from the Senate chamber. Even Ron Boswell can get there in plenty of time.
Finns ,my guess is that the plotters are trying to seize the machinery of the party.
This mutiny has been long planned.
The execution tho is clumsy to say the least
The odd thing in this occasion is that the ‘floor crossers’ are clearly in the majority of the Coalition in the Senate. In this way a small group of Opposition senators will be acting against the wishes of the majority of their Senate colleagues but in support of the party leader’s direction. Bizarre.
I wouldn’t think the Senate Libs will want to do anything re guillotine before the leadership issue is resolved. Everyone will just keep talking.
If Turnbull wins then eventually a vote will be forced but that could take some time. Senators don’t like getting told what to do by party leaders apart perhaps for Labor.
If Turnbull is rolled then it will all go nowhere except perhaps to a Committee as everyone except Labor will want to take a breather till after Copenhagen.
There is a wild card here as well. Why did the Government bring the House back on Monday? It couldn’t be to send though some more D.D. trigger bills could it, and then force the Senate to sit on Tuesday to deal with them?
Will the Liberals send those off to committees too?
Why would the government want to guillotine the vote and risk any form of its legitimacy? They can’t lose on the ETS regardless of anything that happens.
To bring it to a final vote.
Quite.
Centre, guillotining is entirely legitimate. It is provided for in the Senate standing orders. The reason the Government would want to apply it is obvious. To pass the bills without a ridiculous level of filibustering.
They wouldn’t need to. The Senate could just refuse to consider the bills until a later date.
The Liberal moderates will have an ironclad defence if they vote for the guillotine:
The CPRS bill as amended following the Wong-Macfarlane agreement is actually Liberal Party policy, approved by the party Leader, the Shadow Cabinet and (officially anyway) the party room. Part of the agreement was that the bill would be brought to a vote before Copenhagen. Liberal Senators will be doing no more than implementing their own party’s agreed policy if they to vote for the procedures necessary to achieve that.
Better still, lets look at the numbers on the last count. Sure, with ticket voting there is some non-repeatable aspects, but overall micro parties will tend to funnel votes in a similar way.
At this point the ALP in NSW had 3.11 quotas, Libs 3.12 and Greens 0.77. Unless the ALP can pull votes off the Greens – which seems unlikely – the ALP needs to pull the Libs down to 2.61 quotas to get the Lib surplus distributed before the ALPs. And any loss of any of these votes to the Greens makes it even harder.
It is mathematically possible but it is just not a realistic scenario.
Psephos is right. The debate’s been going on for months (and in the broader sense, years). There’s no evidence the Parliamentary debate will change anyone’s mind now. In a sense the vote to guillotine is a proxy for the real vote anyway. The public is sick of it and are onto planning the holidays – they just want *something* done about CC.
There’s nothing wrong with a guillotine, and no-one much is going to think that there is.
But it does put the Liberal moderates in an awkward position. Even I, a Liberal, can see that isn’t really Rudd’s problem, though.
1478.
And diminish its credibility. Nop, too important an issue.
AND passing the CPRS makes it more likely that Turnbull stays on as leader, which is what they want!
ltep, They would want to avoid being criticised for rushing through an important piece of legislation.
But the Government could emphasise that it only passed thanks to Liberal support! And that the Liberals MADE AN AGREEMENT that some of them stuck by.
They could divide and conquer, thank the sensible Liberals, and attack the deniers who tried to hold the Senate and nation to ransom.
Centre I really don’t think they care at this stage and they have been very keen to point out the extent of filibustering and how the bills have been considered for months on months on end.
No. The public can see the dissaray that the Liberals are in and it would be seen that Labor have taken advantage of the situation. It would not be advisable.
If the CPRS is too pass, it must pass fair and square. It is too important an issue not to.
In anticipation of the Senate sticking to the agreement and passing the emended CPRS bills on Friday and being passed by the Reps on Monday. Of course that timetable was set up on Thursday, before he Libs rebelled.
The guillotine is a valid tool in parliament and does not affect the laws’ legitimacy. It’s the tyranny of the majority.
Anyway, anyone who was watching last week can see that there is no “debate” going on in the Senate. There’s just an endless series of repetitive denialist rants from the Nats and their Lib allies, delivered to an empty chamber. Labor Senators aren’t even participating.
I don’t think they will see it as taking advantage of the Liberals at all. If some of them help pass it then that is all punters will hear about.
But the House won’t just sit there and wait, it can bring on other business such as the other potential D.D. trigger bills.
Ditto It’s Time – And what proportion of the voting public would know what a guillotine was or be aware of its use?
It won’t look legitmate in the eyes of the voters if Labor guillotine the vote. Of course they COULD legally do it, but in this case they would be well advised not to IMO.
Finns
If these branches are holding extraordinary meetings,and turnbull gets up,then the groundwork will be laid for a split.
If the parl branch defies the executive-what then?
Such as?
And the public wouldn’t think it was rushed through considering they have been hearing politicians going on and on and on about it ALL YEAR!
Centre I doubt the ALP will be hiring you to advise them on tactics anytime soon!
Likewise you ltep. We’ll just see if they do or not!
“that is all punters will hear about”
Yep, from Rupe’s men!
The National OH&S scheme for example. Antony Green lists more here:
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2009/08/does-labor-have-nine-potential-double-dissolution-triggers.html#more
Alternatively, the Government may just spend time debating a motion in the House demanding that the opposition stick to its agreement to pass the CPRS with the agreed amendments in the Senate.
Of course this would have no legislative pressure, but it would add POLITICAL pressure, and would be all over the news on Monday night featuring government members demanding the Liberals stick to their agreement.
Particularly since Turnbull said the same thing in his Friday night presser and again today.
That was passed in September. The House might consider (but not put to a vote) the private health reform bills I suppose.
Off-topic but of interest: Labor 63% two-candidate vote over the Green in the Willagee by-election in WA. A good result, no sign of Labor’s vote leaking to the left.
It would be interesting to see what the opposition members say in response.
An interesting snippet here from Matthew Franklin! Hockey is far from the perfect alternative to Abbott to challenge Turnbull on behalf of the rebels!
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/malcolm-turnbull-unmoved-as-support-dives/story-e6frg6nf-1225804755606
What will the Liberal seniors be talking about now? How to save or replace Turnbull, block or pass the ETS or, keep the party coherent in the longer term.
Turnbull and Minchin may have their plans to prevail but others may be looking at the issue of how to keep the party coherent and from becoming guerrilla warfare among themselves until the next election.
Turnbull will never step down and Minchin’s side obviously will not accept his staying. The compromise then is for a neutral or a Hockey to take the reins under the understanding that the right ceases their warfare, but I would suggest they have to also support the ETS.
The ETS has to be done for any number of reasons, industry will do better with this than a later one, it will cost the party big time and, one is inevitable in any case at some future time….plus world events are overtaking the issue.
The compromise might be then that the ETS get passed so long as Turnbull is out. The party is happy that a destructive issue is off the agenda and the destabilisation is squashed… the question is who will be the candidate. It seems to be poor old Joe.
All the talk of there was already an agreed stance, promise keeping etc is meaningless. Even the public knows now that everything that was ever previously said was a sham by now. The real reality is that the Liberal has no stance.
In a peverse way, because the complete breakdown the in the Liberal is so well known now, the public would expect Labour to have mercy and not push it. It was be gloating, especially when the foe is so down.
Particular so if it was being portrayed they could have some semblance of a stance after the spill on Tues…
The obvious compromise is the Bronwyn-Wilson ticket, nicely balanced by gender and state, what’s not to like?
Or what about this tid bit from the Oz:
Wayne Swan gets stuck in:
http://www.theage.com.au/national/swan-urges-hockey-to-stand-firm-against-climate-change-dinosaurs-20091128-jxkm.html
TP,
See 1505 and 1509!
One Minchin supporter a few days ago described Hockey as a “fatter version of Turnball”! He’s about to get into bed with this lot?
Then there’s the Uglies ticket – Michael Johnson and Sophie Mirabopoulos. Bon apetit!
Anyone who suggests that the Greens vote is benefiting from this should consider the following -
Last 6 Newspolls – 11,10, 10, 10, 10, 11
Last 8 Morgan – 10.5, 9, 7.5, 9.5, 8, 8, 9, 9
last 8 Essential – 8, 8, 7, 8, 8, 9, 9, 7
Sorry, no trends there.
ShowsOn: Note the contrast! Our statemanlike PM in Port Of Spain, meeting with that well known left wing conspirator Sarkozy, the Ruddster as cool as a cucumber!
And he said it’s his intention for the government to serve a full term, putting paid to the spin being run by the MSM today.
I cannot now see how the right can continue to want to block the ETS.
China, USA, India are coming on board, Rudd is their with Obama and the Queen and this is the main issue…Australia will look as the odd man out and when it is pointed out, every Australian not know the reason for it.
It is inevitable after an election in any case and one much harsher for big business. So what is the point of hanging on now? Are these people totally stupid?
Note that all the shadow ministers who’ve resigned are the really dud ones?
And when Mesma predictably throws in her lot with the right wing loon squad, that’ll add even further to the stupidity quota.
Minchin and his forces are using this as an opportunity to fight the next round of the ideological war, the prize is total control of the Liberal Party. Their aim is to completely eradicate all moderates from the party, Turnball is Public Enemy No 1 to them and must be eliminated!
Well they have a bargaining chip to settle the dispute. Agree to now pass the ETS as long as Turnbull is replaced.
Hello everyone. Haven’t posted in a v long time (since Obama ’08), but these happenings are too juicy to ignore.
I don’t see how Hockey could take the job now – he’s going to wait until after the election and would probably get chewed up and spat out going into an election nxt year. Labour will have a field day with him as a supporter of the ETS if he takes the job but closes the bill down.
Libs just need to stay in the game this next election – if they let the ALP get to 100 seats then forget 2013 and 2016. This is the risk with Abbott and the short-term ramification of being anti-ETS (medium/longer term is a different story – this ETS bill probably has some blowback from the electorate in it, but not a 40-seat blowback!)
The right wingnuts desperately need Hockey to take the job with a deal for themselves now. If Turnbull hangs on and his approval rises (which it probably will) then they face being turfed out for a very long time… in fact, Turnbull can do Hockey’s job for him! In their self-interest, they’d rather get hammered (but survive) with Abbott than permanently marginalized under Turnbull?
I’ll put my $10 on the <5% Lib seatholders hanging on with Turnbull. Every one of the ETS dissenters to be expelled from Shadow Cabinet never to return until a new leader (presumably Hockey sometime after 2010) maybe accommodates them in a minor form like humouring the ALP centre-left. The right have no choice but to take Abbott next week if Hockey isn’t game.
The real battle, I reckon, is for who leads the party in 2016. Its moot if 2010 is a landslide, as the next Lib PM isn’t in parliament in that case. If Turnbull has a long-term ground game in him (and I’m not sure if he does) then he still has a chance, though needs Hockey to fail first. Sometimes the stars have to just favour you… Johnny would never have been PM if Hewson had won in ’93… in that alternate universe I reckon both Beazley and Costello might have had the job between then and now. But I don’t think Mal has 5 yrs of patience in him – if he did, then he could work hard and rebrand himself very effectively and deny Julia G!! Unless Hockey proves to be the real deal (and I think its worth betting against that?). Johnny also needed Downer to turn out to be a turkey, which I guess in hindsight wasn't a big gamble.
I actually think its in Mal’s longterm interests for Hockey to get the job now and get beaten up over the next 12 mths, and its in Hockey’s interests for Mal to keep the job lose the next election (though not too badly), and vaporize a few wingnuts on the right!!!
Who have I seen publicly supporting Turnball?
Chainsaw(Mcfarlane)
George Brandis
Peter Lindsay
All 3 of them would be for the high jump if Abbott became leader.
Chainsaw in particular is accusing the other lot of treachery! Gotta admit I’m fast becoming a Chainsaw fan, and this from a Labor person.
TP, I really think it’s not about the leadership. The sceptics don’t want an ETS unless they absolutely must.
If the majority in the party don’t want an ETS, then Turnbull will be defeated in my view. And I reckon the sceptics in the party are prepared to take it to an election.
I think it may have morphed into the right’s last stand? They have to have a victory or be forever exiled to the jungle to practice guerrilla warfare. They must be able to see now that the ETS issue is a lost cause, it is inevitable and now it is about securing some sort of victory. In exchange for passing the ETS and shutting up thereafter they would accept a compromise candidate and maybe guarantees as to the balance of the front bench.
If they are still against the ETS then they are done for you would think. Hockey would be very quickly squashed as the leader if he went for blocking the ETS.
Mu god the ETS would be Workchoices nightmare all over again right up to the election.
From early speculation on Julie Bishop, here is a snippet of info that PB’s may find interesting!
http://www.theage.com.au/national/bishop-to-weigh-up-the-party-room-odds-20091127-jx22.html
Good old J Bishop working out her priorities.
Nice one Mesma, your support of your leader has been completely non-existant!
If Turnball is still leader by Wednesday, he could promote Marise Payne, one of the few decent women in the Liberal Party.
We have a special Galaxy poll:
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/turnbull-hockey-neck-and-neck-in-poll-20091128-jy4h.html
Hockey and Turnbull have about the same popularity over all, but Hockey is more popular than Turnbull and Abbott among Liberal voters.
Regarding the ETS, 81% of Liberal voters want it delayed until after Copenhagen. 60% in total want it delayed. If you assume party support is 55/45, that means support for a delay among Labor voters is in the low 40s.
Also, the sample is only 400 voters making it a bit Mickey Mouse as Mumble would say.
Annabel Crabby with quite a funny piece! The last part is quite apt!
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/love-and-other-liberal-catastrophes-20091126-juqx.html
The article on ninemsn says it is 50% of ALP voters want it to be delayed.
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=977262
Wow.
Joke poll. Who cares.
Just to add to their confusion. lol
Pineapple Party conference in QLD today. Lots of rabid talk about only pre-selecting climate change denialists, shuffling the order of the Senate ticket…and, surprise, surprise, lots of disgustingly racist comments about immigrants.
If Clive Palmer’s Chinese business associates knew more about the company he keeps and the political sewer that he funds…..
and Glen Milne is foaming at the mouth.
hehaheahe
Oh man this is gold.
trubbell
Was that scheduled or held at short notice?
THE SPLIT IS ON
Yes Gus, it seems it is.
Julie Bishop having two-bob each way (from her valedictory speech last Thursday):
Geez… “Dry humour?”
Irrational
: not rational: as a (1) : not endowed with reason or understanding (2) : lacking usual or normal mental clarity or coherence b : not governed by or according to reason
How extensive is this madness within the right?
Gus,
Scheduled. It’s a two day State Council meeting being held in Maroochydore.
Whew! For a minute there Turnbull thought he was in trouble. From Milne’s Sunday Tele article, talking about the “3.45pm” welch:
If Milne writes you off, you’ve got better than a fighting chance.
Maybe the LNP merger started the ball rolling?
The issues wedging the conservatives are too numerous to list.
This machiavellian drama brings up new twists every day.
It’s hard to feel sorry for the Libs right now. Glad I don’t.
The problem in Queensland has been brewing for years – at a state level the libs would get more vote but fewer seats than the nats – when I lived there I always felt that this impasse was insolvable and would keep labor in power for a long time (especially as more vic/nsw people came to live there who might swing to lib but never to nat). They thought they had a solution with the LNP but it still didn’t come close to winning them an election, and even though Bligh trails in the polls when the reality of the LNP gets into gear in an election campaign it is something most Queenslanders will still not be able to stomach. There is just too much dissent between the two “partners”.
Ahhh
Wondered why troothy wasnt around.
Hockey – no time to be full time Oppo Leader and father of young children, but plenty of time to fart arse about all over North Sydney pumping out greenhouse gasses unnecessarily because he’s too ashamed to be seen tugging at Jeannette’s petticoat:
Expat Follower
Don’t expect much.
Was he casing the joint?
Oh and piers has a good old foot stomp for good measure
We’re getting to him
Look at the photo, it looks dodgy to say the least.
http://resources0.news.com.au/images/2009/11/28/1225804/941040-joe-hockey-and-john-howard.jpg
Crikey – “don’t expect much” in terms of what exactly?
Well, Expat Follower.
Apart from me, has anyone responded to your interesting post?
Was that the backdoor they were using
Hockey trying to give the media the slip is hilarious! He needs better espionage training
1551
It looked pretty front door like to me and the photographer would have been less likely to be able to the back door. Who would let a recently previous colleague in through the back door of their house anyway?
Hockey going to ask “Yoda” Howard’s advice is a joke. Of all the things Joe shouldn’t have done (and then hilariously get caught doing it) this was the one. It shows how much influence Howard still has over the Libs. They just can’t cut the umbilical cord and be free him. Sums them up perfectly.
Ttfab
Can’t have the help coming though the front door.
Hyacinth would not be amused
1555
I mentioned the bit about him being a recently former colleague so as to point out the are of similar social standing.
Weirdly, it also evoked images of fraser visiting kerr
1557
I wonder what Turnbull would think of being the Whitlam character?
A delicious irony there.
The smaller, but highly aggressive, Rattus rattus (Ship Rat, Roof Rat, Black Rat) defends its nest fiercely, often driving of attempts by the larger Rattus lebanonsia (Pudding Rat, Scone rat, Pie rat) to raid Ship Rat refuges for nuts and pulses as a supplement to its usual coprophagous diet.
Joe would just be a punching bag with the ETS still around and any other issue. Rudd and Co would dissemble him to zero credibility on any issue. Abbott would be more sure footed and less of a wind bag, but he seems to not be acceptable to the electorate. With ETS still around he would suffer the same as Hockey.
Neither of them would do well and especially with the ETS issue still around…the world would be moving forward I imagine which would just make it all seem worse. I guess they can pass it after Copenhagen, if they eventually can read the writing on the wall.
I think Hockey may, in the end, actually be the greater risk because of his inept performances on camera and his laziness on the issues.
So it the ultimate difference between Abbott and Hockey might not be too much.
Either way this last episode of Liberal Party self destruction has ensured the same or greater margin of victory for Labor.
IMO
Btw
I was trying for the fabled triple entende in 1551,one of which was answered at 1555
Was that the tradesman’s entrance?
Crikey – is that a reflection on my post, the time over there (surpised anyone is up posting at this hr), or something else?
Actually responded at 1561.. sort of
Who is joe going to drive to next
Barnyard?
Maybe they are trying to get honest John to make a comeback.
Oh Expat !! , Teh Liberals are eating themselves! This is history, and I for one don’t want to miss one spectacularly ridiculous, farcical, Wisconsin Tourist Federation moment of it.
FFS, I’m even thinking of watching Indiders in the morning !!
TP,
if you were Turnbull (think laterally and strategically now!), wouldn’t you want Hockey to get blown out then Abbott to nosedive and make a comeback for 2015… like Howard did between 1990 and 95? Not saying its a winning strategy, but I reckon its his best strategy (esp if he can do some groundwork in the intervening pd to improve his brand and credibility). But he needs the party to keep in some touching distance, which means 2010 can’t be a total landslide… and if he’s the best person to achieve that, then he must do so?
Thinking only solely from the objective of reaching the Prime Ministership in his case, of course – which I reckon is his primary political motivation??
Insiders…
Tragic
Your Lucky!!!
I just watched SBS newstopia and the haneef thing
Just to remind me to not even consider sympathy for the libs plight
Trubbel – I’m hardly a Lib afficianado, and this is mega theatre of the most entertaining kind – but “history” might be overstating it? Unless you really think one of the “wet” versus “dry” is going to win some decisive & longstanding victory here for the soul of the party.
But as theatre goes, its a doozy!
I do think the ’91 Hawke-Keating standoff was pretty compelling theatre too
Turnbull if he is at all able to put his ego aside could take this as the opportunity to rid himself of the job and to let someone else get burnt at the election. And may not end up with the choice anyway. But I don’t think he can hang around that long in the hope of the top job. So he probably wants to keep it and and go lunatic during the election campaign including whatever Grech like schemes he can run across.
Yes strategically for his long term plans (if he had one) it is obviously in his best interests to resign and let someone other fool take the job and step in when there is some real chance of victory.
The two fools on order are Hockey and Abbott and I reckon for various reasons they will be as bad as each other. And that is magnified if the ETS issue is still alive later. I personally think they need a third candidate that is stable and uninteresting and not likely to offend the sensibilities of anybody. Being a plain vanilla opposition could be the best they could do now.
Expat, I do think it is history. The Libs are either going to do something monumentally stupid by dumping Turnbull and charging away from the Centre, led by a ring through their noses with the Nats/LNP pulling the rope, or they are going to split, with the conservative rump merging with the Nats. Their only hope, electorally, for the next decade is to unite under a Turnbull/Hockey ticket, but the chances of the RWDB faction recognising that sensible course are close to zero.
Are they at all rational at the moment?
I have no idea why someone as intelligent as Turnbull challenged Nelson. I’d always assumed the hang around in the background for 5 yrs was Cossie’s strategy until he resigned!
Trying to think of the longest period served by an Opposition Leader going into an election victory… Whitlam is the only guy I can think of in a hi profile Westminister country who lost one election, stayed in the job, and won the next election in the last 50 yrs?
Trub – wow, a split would be something… but I can’t see it (too much self interest at play). In terms of making daft election-threatening decisions, Abbott would beat Latham but not by a helluva lot… though even the Latham disaster wasn’t so bad as to allow untouchability the next time round (which a 95+ seat result would do in this case). Keeping in the game was Beazley’s legacy – one which Costello didn’t have the ticker to take on… though it is a thankless task. This is probably the lot of Turnbull/Hockey as well.
It must be kind of surreal within the Liberal ranks at the moment.
A incredible contrast between the two sides. The Rudd machine smooth, focussed, strategic and highly disciplined. The Coalition, rabble rousers, childish, rat-bags with dissension and tantrums all over the shop, barely holding together.
Howard tried to contrast his ‘experienced’ team against Rudd during the election campaign but there was nothing to contrast against really, it was all ascendant Rudd. Rudd could do the same now and highlight a massive difference in quality. In fact that can be one of his election issues – control and discipline against….roll tape.
I was pretty distressed with the possibility that the CPRS will not pass this year but I’m getting used to that thought. In fact, with anyone other than Turnbull in charge it will be better that it doesn’t pass this year but remains a big festering sore on the Liberal hide. When Copenhagen passes that sore will require serious attention and the Libs will not be able to deal with it. That’s when the public will start to become very impatient.
Re Hockey’s visit to Howard – not a good look at all. Hockey will never be seen as his own man unlike Turnbull, Rudd, Howard, Keating, Hawke…
Expat Follower
By any sane analysis of the situation I agree with you. I haven’t put down my money because I am starting to suspect the Liberal party has gone beyond sane.
It all depends on Hockey; if he is silly enough to put his hand up the right will not be put back in their cages; the ETS will not pass; and the Liberals will be running cabinet meetings in a phone booth after the next election.
Obviously that should read “shadow cabinet meeting”.
“One theory doing the rounds of the Liberal Party is that Senator Minchin is being far more machiavellian and is trying to persuade Mr Hockey to run, knowing he would lose the next election and then be replaced by a hard-right leader.
The Government is distributing copies of Mr Hockey’s previous statements in which he expressed support for Mr Turnbull’s position on climate change and the emissions trading legislation.
Mr Turnbull’s supporters are distributing internal party polling to MPs and senators that shows the Liberal Party could lose as many as 20 seats if it adopted a weaker position on climate change.
One of the seats they would lose would be Mr Hockey’s electorate of North Sydney.
NSW Liberal Party state director Mark Neeham has emailed all members of the party’s executive to say public support is on the side of Mr Turnbull.
”You may be interested to know that the number of voters calling offices asking to join the party, as a result of Malcolm’s and the party-room decision on our approach in tackling climate change, is more than double the members who have resigned,” Mr Neeham wrote. ”You probably won’t hear these facts on talkback radio.”
http://www.smh.com.au/national/turnbull-steadfast-as-hockey-turns-to-mentor-20091129-jy65.html
My prediction is that Hockey will stick fat with Turnbull.
To be fair to Turnbull; he challenged in the middle of a GFC, massive stimulus packages delivered by all nations hadn’t been tried before and no one was sure it was going to work. If the stimulus had failed we would now be in the middle of a serious recession and the Rudd government would have fallen.
And in addition to your points fredn, Turnbull had Grech reporting on some of what was passing between Treasury and government even if some of it was no more than water cooler chat. Turnbull would have known the massive political job that Swan and Rudd had ahead of them and the time to move on the leadership was ripe. Stuffing around with 5c/litre petrol discounts a la Nelson and opposing a tax hike on Bundy and Coke was never going to cut it for Turnbull – he knew it was a high stakes game and he went for broke – and was broken in the process.
My advice to Hockey:
1. Don’t challenge
2. Don’t enter into long conversations with the nut bags – they will poison your mind. Keep it short and unemotional.
3. If, in an effort to save the party, you decide to challenge then it should only be on the condition that the CPRS is passed this year.
4. Insist that you get to chose your deputy.
5. Make sure any agreement you reach with the nut bags is in writing with witnesses present.
One final piece of advice for Sloppy Joe
6. Don’t trust anyone.
Such is the state of the Liberal party during and after the leadership of JWH.
Steve K
Posted Sunday, November 29, 2009 at 7:34 am | Permalink
…. – and was broken in the process.
But in politics nothing is broken forever. Memories are short. Ya things didn’t work out first time around.
If right wing nutters are resigning from the party and moderates are joining (GG post 1583); if Turnbull manages to but the nutters back in their cages; then he has done what needed to be done to make the party competitive. If you want to be prime minister you have to have a competitive party; could have anyone else done it?
Psephos says all they want it the ETS; I suspect however that Labor strategists are a little worried that Turnbull may pull this off; that the ETS will not be an issue at the next election and that the Liberal party will once again be controlled by moderates.
http://bigpondnews.com/articles/TopStories/2009/11/29/Joe_Hockey_looks_to_Howard_for_advice_399618.html
The image of a wizenned JWH with Hockey should be enough to put the punters off.
Mind you, being locked up with Hyacinth for 2 years would be a valid reason for the Rodent’s appearance.
One of the many things that Kevin Rudd did for himself when he was running for leadership was to define himself.
Whereas poor Joe has been defined by everyone in the last few days:
* By Turnbull as his shadow
* By Gillard, Swan and now the PM on the Turnbull camp
* By the press as “Turnbull Lite”
* By the press as “the reluctant candidate” imprisoned by family demands
* And, the worst of all, he has been defined as a weakling by being caught visiting the God Father, John Howard. Seeking the advice of the very man who has created this problem.
Very sloppy indeed.
Courier Mail Lib leadership poll http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/poll/1,,5003440-5042337-0,00.html
Have fun, Stirrers!
Ozpol
Gee, Mesma’s polling well in it!
Dutton for Rabble Leader.
Eric Abetz about to be interviewed on Sky News.
If Hockey doesn’t run for leader he risks being tagged another Costello, too gutless and unsure of himself to go for the top job. Other risk is that another leader may arise leaving Hockey in the shade with other could have beens.
If he goes for the leaders job he signals he’s a big player and always ready to take it on, he gets an extra $120,000 a year (handy loot for a family), can always try again for leader if he gets dumped after a loss. No problems in U-turn on ETS, reconsideration of the facts, wont be a burden. Honesty and never ever didn’t affect prospects of Hockeys mentor.
Whether the Libs have a formal split or not now, the damage is done. They are so divided on the CC issue that they would rather have an ugly leadership contest than let pass an ETS that most see as a reasonable compromise.
I don’t think Hockey will challenge unless Turnbull steps aside and tells him to. They aren’t just friends; they are on the same side in what is effecively a factional battle.
As for Turnbull, while he is intelligent, I think we are in danger of over-analysing his past behaviour. Maybe he just acted in the style that has been successful for him in the past, but came unstuck in this more complex environment. I don’t know if he thought it through as much as some people here have. I feel sorry for him recently, when he has actually become a bigger man. But early on, Grech demonstrated a grubbier side to him.
Speaking of Grech, I hope the AFP are still investigating. Others such as Abetz shouldn’t get off so lightly.
Turnbull with Oakes on 9
Did he? All I remember was a lot of spin about the ‘dream team’ of Gillard and Rudd. In fact Rudd very rarely interviewed alone during the leadership battle.
Turnbull just puts another knife into Mad Monk
Geez… talkback radio is now the enemy.
Socrates
Whitlam had to go through this to bring the mad left under control. I don’t see the difference.
For a moderate, Sydney talk back radio is the enemy.
#1599, the first thing Rudd did was to define himself as: the economic conservative and he was laughed out of the room. the rest is history. some people have short memory.
Turnbull said Hockey told as late as last night that he supports Turnbull.
Here’s a question: how will the Insiders spin this as a disaster for Rudd?
There is not enough rope for Turnbull to rope in Hockey
Most definitely especially as the Liberals decided to destroy him as a person. He was attacked as a liar about his past, his present and his plans for the future. He had to define himself if only to defend himself and he did it so successfully that he is still at plus 60% approvals.
Turnbull spoke with Hockey last night and Hockey stills backs him.
Turnbull to Oakes
Laurie Oakes was telling a lie by quoting the Galaxy numbers on 81% wanted delay and did not qualify that it was only the Liberal voters not the whole population.
Again another very impressive performance by T.
The most statesman-like Liberal leader in decades
Just watch 9. That is it, if the 5 to 1 is still available I’m putting $50 on Turnbull.
Steve K
Did Qld PS’s Dr Death of Broom Cupboards & Gulags become Mr Permanent Honeymoon?
Initially after losing his first try for a HoR seat; more especially on Sunrise, with Joe!
Reading carefully Tony “Assassination skills” Abbott’s last comment, he was quoted on ABC that:
“If there’s no movement (on the ETS?) then I’ll be calling a spill for Monday morning,” Mr Abbott said today. “If it comes to it I will be calling on a challenge.”
Now that they realise they will never be elected if tey hold course, I wonder if they are looking for soem “wiggle room” in those words. “If there is no movement” is pretty vague. Is there a compromise that would let Turnbull get the ETS through and make Abbott feel he had made a change?
(I care about getting the ETS through, not Turnbull or Abbott’s survival).
There is no way Joe CAN run now. He is being torn and destroyed by both sides.
Bolty said Joe is a fool, guess who is a bigger fool?
Which of the top 5 on the Govt front bench could Hockey hope to be able to match in any (meaningful) forum?
I don’t think so. The sceptics are putting it all on the table with this one and crossing their fingers they can bully Turnbull out of the leadership. I think they’ll ultimately fail but we’ll see!
Blot says “I’m no Liberal.”
Insiders
LOL
I am glad Leone Taylor is on with Bolty. She just told Bolty to get farq.
If they do fail then we can call Tony Abbott “maths skills”, because he can’t count his supporters.
Sportsbet doesn’t seem to have the liberal leadership anymore. Oh well.
Turnbull didn’t come across as someone looking for a compromise. If the mad right lose this they are done, and I can’t see them winning. Turnbull has done what needed to be done. Go Turnbull.
Gillard doesnt need too much rope to rope in Hockey.
If Joe takes on L of O, his wife will almost certainly have to give up her high-flying, high-paying day job – and his pay would be pocket money compared to hers. He’d also have to pass on his Daddy-at-home role, and his coaching-kid-sport, both of which he loves, to take over the rabble that’s the federal Liberal Party. In addition, he’d have to be Abbott, Minchin & Co’s running dog.
He should turn it down if for no other reason that no decent supposedly-”Family friendly”/ “family values”/ “family first” person would ask it of him, much less pressure him.
But RW Libs seem to hate high-flying rich wives more than they hate rich moderates like Turnbull.
I wonder if Joe rang Therese. Love the Jesuitical way Joe says, “I did not get … (here insert Xmas Card, congrats etc) from Kevin not Kev & Therese or The Rudds
Steve K @ 1619
Yep, I heard that one too…
I nearly fell of my chair
MT has experienced and learned the art of brinksmanship as a lawyer and merchant banker. He is now using it big time.
We are all watching our first female PM. Just a matter of time.
A powerful performance. Direct to the point. King hits all the time.
Gillard: delay is denial.
Gillard: We’re not interested in an early election
Gillard: Cant govern the nation by tweet….Penny and Julia…what a combo!
she would say that wouldnt she
Credit where credit’s due. Turnbull coined that line with Oakes this morning and JG acknowledged that in her commentary.
When is Hockey’s presser?
Finns
The pandas are safely installed into the Zoo. I think that’s three front pages in a row here.
Hooray!
insiders have lost the plot ! Not a single word aGAINSt Saint Kevin yet !
Would a Riverview Lad have remembered The Great Will S’s comments on his era’s Jesuit Lads (as all of the below are)?
Shame, Tiger, Shame.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/27/tiger-woods-injured-in-ca_n_372324.html
Dio, Please spare us another lecture on sexual morality.
Diog, i know, but have they started bonking yet as you SAs like to do at every opportunity.
Finns
That won’t happen until they install a large desk in the enclosure.
Diog, even Tiger has started bonking, so the Pandas should get cracking
Steve K
Even RW ratbag Libs would be too far left for him, wouldn’t they?
OMG, i agree with Bolty about Joe, namely Joe is really sloppy and weak.
Methinks his visit to Howie really killed his credibility.
btw: equating GST with ETS is really an insult to the intelligence of the Australian people.
Maybe after reading daily all the comments posted to his blog he has grown sick of them??????
Geez, Dio, how would you have coped with former Lib PMs Harry (babe bonker) Holt and Billy (swings both ways) McMahon?
Thats when the Libs were, indeed, Menzies’ Liberals; before the RW moralisers captured the Party.
Sure he didn’t mean, “I’m no liberal” (small l)?
The libs want to delay the ETS so that Rudd cannot go to Copenhagen saying Australia is serious about CC, wants to tackle it and have passed legislation to do so.
The libs and nats would prefer to cause harm to Australia if it can be seen in any way as thwarting labor. They have a history in this.
Oz, dont forget Billy “Sonia” Snedden
Well Bolt *was* a Labor staffer for several years
Finns, not the same Sonia surely?
Bolt will be marginalised if the right fail. He will become as Ackerman, a lunatic voice from over the horizon.
Steve, who does Julian remind you of?
Which Liberal Leader of HM’s Opposition died in the act with a dressmaker?
And don’t forget John Gorton
PS That’s “former leader of …”
Finns, Well he certainly doesn’t look like his ‘old man’ at least not the official one.
http://www.imdb.com/media/rm2919668224/nm0573037
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26416016-5005962,00.html
Turnbull has to go or be attacked from the right from now til the election.
The ETS has to pass at some stage or it will be their Workchoices all over.
The compromise has to be an ETS for the loss of Turnbull otherwise the party loses too much. They need a compromise candidate apart from Joe the soon to be punching bag.
If Turnbull goes AND the ETS doesn’t pass the the poll damage may be so high that Rudd may go to a DD knowing that the ruined party will be left with mostly the lunatic right and thus the following election victory 2 years later assured.
My bet is that there will not be a leadership vote on Tuesday, the spill motion will fail again.
LOL! Andrew Bolt looked incredulous when it was slowly explained to him that a clear majority of Liberals supported backing the CPRS. It was only close when you included the 9 Nats + 1 CLP who we all know are all against it.
The Loony Liberal Right has to go before the Liberals will be electable.
TP, That’s why I have said Hockey should only take on the leadership if he has in writing an agreement that the nut bags will support the passing of the CPRS this year. If they aren’t prepared to do that then he should tell them to farq off.
How pathetic does Sloppy Joe look, having to get the permission of the Rodent before he does anything!
I’m expecting Hockey will betray Turnball and do a grubby deal with Minchin and the loony sceptics, in the belief that this lot are going to agree to an ETS eventually after a senate inquiry, BUT it’s the Sloppster who’ll be falling into two traps: one set by Minchin, the other set by Rudd.
Finns
The pandas are being kept separate at the moment. I think they’re taking them to the North Adelaide Golf Course to get them in the mood when it’s time to procreate.
castle
Bolt detests Turnbull and drools over Abbott. He’s not a Liberal when they have a moderate leader but he’ll fall over himself to cheer for them.
LOL! Andrew Bolt tried to tutor Joe Hockey on climate change!
Given their history would a sane man take the writings of the right wing nutjobs seriously.
Yes, but the loony right are either in safe lower house seats or senate seats! If there’s a massive Coalition loss next time, it’s the moderates who’ll be turfed out(because they tend to be in marginal seats). But, maybe this has been Minchin’s cunning plan all along – the right gets control of the party, even if they’re in opposition for the next 20 years(it still will have been worth it LOL).
The nutjobs may have they support of Bolt, they don’t have business support. Bolt doesn’t pay for elections.
BTW The Shame, Tiger, Shame comment was a reference to Finns comments during the Masters. Some people need to get a sense of humour.
Diogenes: Tiger might know how to “get it in the hole”, but he needs to perfect his “driving”!
If Abbott becomes leader, Bolta may finally get up the guts to run for a Victorian seat.
How much do you think he would lose by in McKewen?
Well we saw the powers the Rodent had over Hockey before the election, changing him from jovial joe to nasty joe.
Barry Cassidy said on Insiders that ABC1 will have a special live show on at 9 AM Tuesday to follow what happens in the Liberal partyroom.
He doesn’t have the bottle
If Hockey wins, the Labor election unit will start splicing together all of his Mr.Workchoices comments made in 2007. Julia can then select those which best suit an attack on his Good Ol’ Joe persona.
He’ll be more than a little sloppy and smelly come the election.
And if he does he will just be the next leader chowed up and spat out by the hard right. He is not that stupid.
Fancy seeking advice from a man that lead your party to an election defeat as well as losing his own seat in the process.
I’d like to see the Liberals split in to the Conservative Party and the Liberal Democrats, but I don’t see it happening, and as the Democrats showed, there’s not as much of a Liberal Democrat-type base here as there is overseas (ie: the UK).
I am surprised that poll shows Turnbull and Hockey equal on 29% support as leader.
I thought people were supposed to rally behind Turnbull because of his tough stance?
He also won four elections.
Unfortunately.
Yes there is, it votes Labor.
SO
Did your TV survive watching Bolt? He’s still obsessed with “Climategate” on his website.
Firstly, if you take that poll seriously you’ll take any poll seriously.
Secondly what it did show (if you insist on taking it seriously) is that the right wingers are not being taken seriously. (Have I used the word “seriously” enough?)
I saw that the UK Tories are 20/1 on to win the next election. That’s about the odds you would have got on Saddam winning in Iraq.
Another eminently sensible plebiscite result
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Vincent_and_the_Grenadines_constitutional_referendum,_2009
I reckon it was Hyacinth that tipped off the media that Joe would be coming over, so she could make sure they got a shot of Johnny in the papers
It went OK. It still doesn’t understand that a MINORITY of the Liberal party has tried to tear down its leader.
I wonder if in half a dozen years Bolta will apologise and say he was wrong?
Properly elected governments have a life span.
As far as I’m concerned you’re only as good as your last election, which makes Howard’s advice very iffy.
58% for the two main CPRS supporter leadership contenders
The current polls suggest it could be a hung parliament. I guess “win” means that the Conservatives have an majority in their own right.
From Speers who is about 0 for 2553 so far
Time to put some money down on Turnbull.
SO
Sorry for the jargon. 20/1 on means they’re paying $1.05, so they are dead certs.
Julia is always good for a smile.
A reminder of Workchioces
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkNnZz15cbI
Have Paul Fletcher and Kelly O Dwyer made any public comment as to where they stand on the ETS?
I won’t dignify that with a response
I’m sure you didn’t complain when Labor privately went to Keating for advice after the 1996 election
[I won’t dignify that with a response
You just did.
Turnbull talks to Laurie Oakes on Today (this morning):
http://today.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=977386
I doubt that but I do think that once we have a CPRS in place there will be strong support across ordinary Australia. Maybe not the 10% at each end of the spectrum but overwhelming support al the same.
The CPRS will be like the GST (which I didn’t support) which is rarely ever mentioned any more.
Whatever advice Keating gave them after ’96 worked a treat didn’t it? 11 1/2 years later ….
Still doesn’t mean they didn’t go to him for advice. Or that you would have argued against it at the time.
Off topic: has anyone else noticed Facebook behaving strangely? Nothing opens properly, whole threads keep disappearing, comments appear and disappear. Maybe it’s just me…
How would anyone know if anyone went to Keating for personal advice anyway? It’s news to me.
Long Noses for Liberals Day
I know there are already too many fund raising events with white ribbons, yellow ribbons, red noses and the like for so many different causes. But the Liberal Party needs your help! It is short of support, and campaign funds too. So here is how you can help.
On Long Noses for Liberals Day, you can buy a long nose from your local Liberal Party branch and wear it on the day. Then each time you tell a lie you pay $1 to the Liberal Party. At the end of the day former PM John Howard will select the “lie of the day”, and congratualte the winner, whoever raised the most money for the party in this time-honoured fashion. Its easy! And a lot of fun.
Our Liberal MPs have already started with some great suggestions you can repeat for yourself (but don’t forget to donate that dollar!):
“Malcolm Turnbull enjoys my complete support.”
“We are not just delaying the ETS because we don’t believe climate change is real.”
“Tony Abbott has people skills, and would make a great Prime Minister of Australia.” (cost $2)
“The Liberal Party is ready to lead Australia.”
“The Liberals are a modern party, understand climate change, and are committed to finding a solution.” (cost $3)
So if you care about the Liberal Party, wear a long nose and tell a few for them!
I’m glad Hockey is going to Howard for advice. It could well be 11 1/2 years later on …. the same as for Keatings wonderful advice, if indeed he gave any.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/the-burden-of-being-rudd-20091120-iqy9.html
LOL. What crap.
They obviously haven’t visited this site.
This bloke is only guessing in other words. He doesn’t know. Forget the polls, they obviously mean nothing. What a joke!
With apologies the The Banjo :
Bob, I realise it’s a tough day to be a Liberal troll, but you’ll have to do better than spamming last week’s media to us.
You watch, now the PB poster of this fine article will disagree with everything I say to get an argument going.
They both believe in man made climate change and support the Coalition policy on the ETS. Which doesn’t mean anything. They refuse to answer any other questions on the topic, or any other topic.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/the-burden-of-being-rudd-20091120-iqy9.html
Labor? Paternalism? Never!!!
I thought you wouldn’t know if anyone had *asked* for Keating’s advice, because Keating is infamous for publically blasting his advice all over the airwaves anyway?
Thanks Oz! Paul Fletcher’s web site, for one, is not an overflowing font of information…
Another good bit from the article:
Dave #1710, excellent update version of Geebung.
Whose strategy on here is this?
1) Post and link to an article that is sure to get up the noses of Labor supporters.
2) Make sure nothing is said about the artcle on posting.
3) Wait for reactions and disagree with those criticising the article or argreeing with it.
4) Take bits out of it and bait a little more if desired effect is not achieved to one’s satisfaction.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/the-burden-of-being-rudd-20091120-iqy9.html
But Howard was!!!
I couldn’t be… biased… could I?
Laocoon, the campaign they’re running is very, very depressing and brings out the worst bits of our political system.
They’re refusing to engage with the electorate. They won’t attend meet the candidate forums and when they are asked questions about where they stand on certain issues they refer them the state office, who just ignores them.
Lazy candidates with strong feelings of self-entitlement who think that being an MP is their birthright. And they’ll probably clean up.
I just watched Christine Milne on Meet the Press.
She clearly articulated the Greens position and rationale (when she was allowed to speak). What a great example of a politician openly and honestly answering a question. She actually answered the questions put to her.
Bravo I say
I recommend people watch it. Also note that she stressed that the Greens would negotiate with the ALP and would not fluff about like the Libs. If the Greens, Mr X, and one Lib can come to an agreement the legislation could pass. OR we can wait for the next election. Clearly with the state the Libs are in the ALP will, eventually, have to deal with the Greens.
GB if you and other Labor hacks choose to have a cry and get your knickers in a knot over an article, then you need to have a good hard look at yourself and your reactions.
It’s not a cult. It’s a solid base of people who have respected the politician if not the man since he took on the leadership.
I didn’t think given the goings on of the last week, that it was possible, but Cassidy found a way! I tips me hat to him!
According to Bazza, Rudd’s “big”problem now is the Coalition running a Keating inspired anti-GTS style campaign against Labor on the ETS.
Labor hasn’t explained how the ETS will work and how it will affect people and with the campaign being run by the likes of Barnaby (he didn’t mention Bolters’), Rudd is extremely vulnerable to a campaign such as this.
It is wide open! Mmmm! Yeah, right, Bazza!!!
Astro
greens? greens I say
a more apt descriptor
YELLOWS
as in cowardly custards carousing and caterwauling in cowards castle
tell me again about your greens(YELLOWS)
And it is last week’s opinion piece. Why it would be brought up at this stage when the landscape has suffered a quake or two is rather odd. An attempt to troll?
I really think there is only one term that can apply to such a poster and given William’s objections to using it I won’t but we all know what it is don’t we?
The Galaxy poll that’s been mentioned on Insiders is here.
http://resources.news.com.au/files/2009/11/28/1225804/945513-galaxy-poll.pdf
60% say Aus should delay the ETS until after Copenhagen. The poll was taken Fri night from a sample of 400. No voting figures, but it’s evident from the question breakdowns that Labor was well ahead on primary votes.
Gusface
I don’t get it…
Look I suggested you watch the program or read the transcript
http://ten.com.au/meet-the-press-paul-bongiorno-2009-transcripts.htm
It’s not been updated, but will be soon.
Diog,
The 60% saying delay the ETS will no doubt be a boost to Turnbull’s opponents. Even among Labor voters, 50% want it delayed.
That’s exactly what he’s saying…?
Oz – I will be very interested to see the Greens’ vote in both Bradfield and Higgins; might not be as as much a clean up for Libs as the caandidates might expect
You really cannot help yourself can you GB?
Bob: Upset that the Greens didn’t win Willigee last night?
At no stage was I expecting them to win.
astro
the greens had a chance to exert pressure on the Conservatives by agreeing to pass the ETS
By playing the Liberals game and dirtying the waters, they have shown their core convictions
Yellow custard flows in their veins
The only green issue is how green they can make their backyard.
St Bob sickened me but now the bullstein and hattarsery re the ETS has condemned them to the cesspit of quislings and chicken littles
0/10
I didn’t even mention a name and someone immediately associated themselves with the description I gave. So I must be right then.
But it is interesting to note that it seems Labor will hold Willagee on less of a margin than they did after the 2008 state election.
Good. Cause the Green vote continues to stay at or risen above the level of support at the last election.
It wasn’t exactly hard to figure out who you were referring to. Same old accusations, same old i’m not going to respond but end up responding anyway, same old cynicism, same old Labor hackery. Snore.
When is Hockey’s bloody presser!!!
It’s a joke poll
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/rebel-liberals-toying-with-delays-on-ets-20091129-jyg0.html
For all this talk about consulting Howard…
Why hasn’t anyone consulted Costello?
http://www.australia.to/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=16874:malcolm-turnbull-leader-of-the-opposition-and-laurie-oakes-&catid=72:australian-news&Itemid=200
Look! Look! Proof that Turnbull is a Labor hack after all!!!
If Turnbull can get 7 senators to vote for the guillotine with the Government, there is nothing Andrews can do about it
As stated by the esteemed Mr Green:
Love it
Morning all.
You can ignore the ‘should be postponed until after copenhagen’ nonsence. Pollsters are asking and publishing this question because they don’t want to publish the ‘should it be passed’ data as it is a whitewash for Rudd.
And the events of the last week blow this Lib position out of the water. There has been open revolt designed to stop the legislation at any cost. Nobody will buy the idea that the Libs want a delay for ‘further analysis and debate’ to ‘make sure they get it right’.
Copenhagen will happen. Rudd will return after – it is increasingly looking – there has been a significant commitment with actual numbers from all the big players put on the table. This polling question will then be serecognised as a hollow ‘fudge’ of the actual numbers supporting the legislation.
This is true, however of the ‘moderate’ senators, one of them (Senator Humphries) has already stated he will not support the government in guillotining debate.
As I pasted yesterday, Gary Humphries, one of Turnbull’s closest supporters, said it is highly unlikely Libs would assist Labor in guillotining and cut off debate from their own side. When asked if he could see it passing this year, he said it was highly unlikely.
And they are usually asking the question in a push manner as well
Gusface
“the greens had a chance to exert pressure on the Conservatives by agreeing to pass the ETS”
The Greens made their position clear from the start, the Govt refused to negotiate. Why is it up the Greens to aid the Govt get a deal through that they never spoke to the Greens about? This deal was between the Govt and the Coalition. Why should the Greens support something they had no hand in and never agreed with.
“By playing the Liberals game and dirtying the waters, they have shown their core convictions”
Playing the Liberals game? Labor was playing the Liberals game. Labor negotiated this deal with the Coalition. If they can’t get it through then it is the fault of one of those two… My money is on this being the fault of the Coalition.
“Yellow custard flows in their veins”
Name calling? come on…
“The only green issue is how green they can make their backyard.”
This has been a Greens issue since way back. The reason it took so long to get to this stage is because of JWH.
“St Bob sickened me but now the bullstein and hattarsery re the ETS has condemned them to the cesspit of quislings and chicken littles”
Well you were always going to vote Labor… So this is just an opportunity for you to shout slogans and call people names. If you want to have a serious discussion, I am ready. If you want to just shout slogans… Well, I’ll leave you to your echo chamber.
Kate Ellis is being prevented going to South Africa for 2010 World Cup draw and lobbying for Australia’s bid by the ETS fiasco. Shame on the donkeys.
Anyway Australia will get one of the World Cups, 2018 or 2022, probably 2022, and that how long the Rudd Govt will be in office.
Pass the popcorns
Agreed Dario
The question is a Claytons question on the issue. The question you ask when you’re not asking the question.
People are naturally cautious – especially if there are clearly two opposing opinions on an issue. The surprise is that – given how much division and indecision has made it’s way into the media narrative through the Lib/Nats – the numbers who think we should wait are as LOW as this.
I dont have a golf club in my house!!!!
And if the CPRS goes through, then there is no reason to get rid of Turnbull.
ShowsOn
Abstentions are another scenario
Did anyone ask Humphries: “What will you do if your leader TELLS you to vote for the guillotine?”
Astro, that is the second reason that the Government refused to negotiate with the Greens – the Greens position was not an ambit claim. The first reason is that the Greens do not hold the BoP. That should happen after the next election.
thanks astro,
at least mine echo chamber is in government and is trying to be part of the solution,not part of the problem like your greens are and seemingly will always be.
Aha
So you play politics with your core conviction rather than working toward a solution
cowardly custards is too nice IMHO
Astro
I have to admit that Bob made me smile when he gave Barnyard the slap he deserved after having a hissy fit in the senate on Friday. I think the Greens are playing their cards well.
The Great Climate Change Conspiracy – as only the nation that gave us the Goons, The Goodies, Monty Python, Fawlty Towers etc can do it!
Read it all (the email starts after para 4) on Global warming rigged? Here’s the email I’d need to see
A Great email!” Sounds like Minchin, Abetz, Robb & Co are doing a Turnbull!
Love the Poms’ sense of humour!
Scarpat
Yes, I understand that. It is Gusface who doesn’t seem to understand.
He seems to think it is up to the Greens to pass legislation they had no hand in and don’t agree with.
I initially made the claim that in the event that this legislation doesn’t pass, then the Govt has to negotiate with the Greens
Is it just me or does this tweet comment show that Americans don’t really know what is happening in the world. I recall we were the first country back in 2001 to support the American in going after the Taliban.
GStephanopoulos @KevinRuddPM first things first: what can you commit to President Obama on Afghanistan?
PS, sorry. Didn’t realise Mr Kattweizel’s email address would appear as a link!
Astro, it won’t happen overnight but it will happen (after the next election)
Gusface
“So you play politics with your core conviction rather than working toward a solution”
Two things,
1 The current policy isn’t a solution.
2 Why should they support policy that they always indicated they wouldn’t? This is not playing party politics, it’s just sticking to your guns.
OMGZ
Am watching Bolta now… Man he is getting shirty… What an idiot.
Considering they haven’t got any, “that”s a “BIG” call!!!
So the greens intransgience and lack of any support for the Gvts. ETS is allowing the libs to sow confusion and doubt.
Really aiding the cause arent they.
The public sees only the perception not the nuances astro, so by staying on the sideelines they are depriving the pro ETS a valuable player
the liberals appreciate your ongoing dirtying of the waters.
Scarpat
Yep!
Thankfully after the next election we can get some really good policy, that supports good aussie technology.
Imagine if we could get that CSIRO solar polymer technology up and running. Literally it would be like printing money!
http://www.csiro.au/news/Trials-for-printable-plastic-solar-cells.html
http://www.csiro.au/science/Organic-photovoltaics.html
They way of the future!!!
After the next elections the Liberals will still be there; and after a good routing the Liberals will no doubt be more interested in negotiation, more interested in taking the issue off the table.
The Greens may have the balance of power, but I suspect they will be used as a negotiation tool; not as the party to negotiate with.
I suspect, no matter what happens the Greens have dealt themselves out of the game.
Gusface
“The public sees only the perception not the nuances astro, so by staying on the sideelines they are depriving the pro ETS a valuable player”
No, I think this is merely the perception you want to spread. If you can understand the nuances, why would you pretend they don’t exist?
Also I don;t believe that people believe the Greens don’t want an ETS. I think people are capable of understanding pretty simple idea.
so the Greens are going to wait until after the next election when this issue will be a distance memory.
Gee what ever happened to the saying stike when the iron is hot.
The issue is current so please get involved now to go and sit in the corner and play with your shadow.
to = or
Fredn
“The Greens may have the balance of power, but I suspect they will be used as a negotiation tool; not as the party to negotiate with.
I suspect, no matter what happens the Greens have dealt themselves out of the game.”
If the Greens have the BOP, then by definition they are in the game.
I think you missed the fatal flaw in your logic.
By definition, if the Greens have the BOP, then the Govt MUST negotiate with them to get the legislation through. There is no way that the Coalition can do anything if the Greens have the BOP.
Now there you go again
The grens actually should be called the IFS
if we get in gvt
if someone anyone will obey us
if we can insert favourite meme
See this is the core problem,your logic and decision making is based on IF
hate to tell you but politics is the art of the possible not the dreams of the impossible
as an experiment the greens have failed badly,the rot started with St Bob and now the death knell is the ETS
the gods luv irony when they interfere in the affairs of man
Fredn, in this session, the Greens were never in the game in realpolitik terms. I agree they will become a negiotating tool on subjects (there are other day to day issues other than the ETS) where they don’t support the Government.
Mexicanbeemer
“so the Greens are going to wait until after the next election when this issue will be a distance memory.”
How is this going to be a distant memory at the next election? It will be THE election issue. AGW isn’t going to go away, it will only get worse and become a bigger and bigger issue.
Lets stop making excuses for the Greens refusel to offer any real carrot to get the Goverment to change the ETS and the CRPS.
Now whilst you greens are in the corner you will at least have Minchin and co to play with
In this session the greens are now very much in the game. With the Greens it needs two Liberals to tell Minchen to get stuffed; without them 7.
Gusface
It’s democracy in action. Deal with it.
But Labor can choose their dance partner, in such a scenario.
It could be the Greens. It could be the Libs (and I agree with fredn, a thrashing at the polls is going to make the moderate Liberals more inclined to negotiate, not less). It could even be the Xers (if Labor gets 37 and X gets to bring a friend to Canberra). It will probably be a case of start talking to all, and see where you get the best offer.
A crushing victory to Labor in the Reps and a significant increase in the Senate is only going to make Labor more powerful. It isn’t necessarily going to make the Greens more powerful. That will depend entirely on how Labor chooses to do things.
So true Astro. Global warming will be an issue for humankind until we get off this planet as the sun develops into a red giant star …
“The grens actually should be called the IFS
if we get in gvt
if someone anyone will obey us
if we can insert favourite meme
See this is the core problem,your logic and decision making is based on IF
hate to tell you but politics is the art of the possible not the dreams of the impossible
as an experiment the greens have failed badly,the rot started with St Bob and now the death knell is the ETS”
Gusface what you wrote is all a load of garbage.
The Greens don’t expect to be in Govt anytime soon.
After the next election the most likely situation is that the Greens will hold the BOP, they will have to be listened to.
So what is possible here is that the CPRS doesn’t pass, and after the next election the Greens hold the BOP and get some good legislation through (with the ALP).
The Greens are not an experiment. It seems that you think they should just become an arm of the Labor Party and just rubber stamp ALP legislation. THAT would be the quickest way to become irrelevant.
The Government does not want to negotiate with the Greens. They’ve shown no sign of trying to and it wouldn’t make sense to.
So you’re criticising the Greens for not negotiating when the Government doesn’t want to negotiate with them?
The Greens do not support the CPRS in its current form and the Government will not move it closer to what they want (and in fact have moved it in the other direction.
I bet Minchin & Co can’t believe their luck! The naivety and intransigence of the Greens has given him the ammunition he needs to bolster the denialist cause and use as a telling persuader to bring the sceptics on board his wrecking machine!
Every time a Green gets up to speak against “any” aspect of the ETS, Minchin nearly wets himself with excitement and glee!
Watch the Senate live Monday and see if I am not right! My position on the Greens being irrelevant has now changed! They are now the main tool and object of ridicule of the Wacky, far right, climate denialists which are controlled by the coal/energy lobby!
Lovely place to be, lumped in with that lot! Their “grass roots” supporters must be absolutely horrified!
Dyno
“It could be the Greens. It could be the Libs (and I agree with fredn, a thrashing at the polls is going to make the moderate Liberals more inclined to negotiate, not less). It could even be the Xers (if Labor gets 37 and X gets to bring a friend to Canberra). It will probably be a case of start talking to all, and see where you get the best offer.”
No. If the Greens have the BOP there is no other choice. That’s why it’s called the BALANCE OF POWER. It means that they will be the sole negotiating partner.
I am. The way the Liberal Party has handled this issue is crazy.
It’s possible, but more likely the Opposition and Government will finally reach a deal that is enacted. Business would much rather have a bipartisan ETS so that there is certainty that it won’t significantly change each time there is a government change. I don’t think the Greens will ever have a say in the form of the ETS.
I find it so cute how all the Labor hacks think that environmentalism begins and ends with the Rudd ETS, and that somehow climate change as a problem as well as a policy issue will somehow go away just because Rudd’s ETS gets implemented.
But considering their regular distance from reality, I can’t say i’m surprised
Fredn, the Greens have already said the ETS is unacceptable as it stands. If there are changes to the ETS before the House, there is no way any Lib would cross the floor.
It does seem from reading this blog that the ALP supporters just see the Greens as some sort of branch of the ALP that just rubber stamps what the ALP wants them to.
I think the anger toward the Greens is because the ALP supporters here have realised that the Greens aren’t just a rubber stamp. Deal with it.
Astrobleme!
The next election will be about three things.
ALP’s economic performance in light of the GFC – Greens and Liberals have no way of attacking it.
ALP’s Fair Work vs Liberal Party Workchoices
and
The Government’s CRPS Vs Liberal Party inabilty to to know what they want.
Now yesterday i may a suggestion that if it was Green policy would actually have played the Greens into it, but instead or we have is the Greens going on about a 25-40% target.
That is excessively larger than anyother country’s target and leaves open the charge that the Greens are anti jobs, anti workers, anti communities that form the bulk of the Australia just so the Greens rich mates can run there air-conditionors.
The Greens basically are refusing to put forward any real alternative other than an excessive target that will be rejected by most Australians while the Greens will be patting themselves on the back for still polling less than the DLP.
In other words, irrelevant to Labor getting its ETS through the Parliament, but are the plaything of the wacky, right wing, climate denialists now captive to the coal/energy lobby! Nice work!!!
Your logic only works if:
(a) the Liberals are completely unwilling to negotiate with Labor (note it will probably only need 2-3 Lib Senators at that point, assuming Labor gets 36-37), and
(b) Labor can’t get to 39 with the aid of Xenophon.
If those conditions are satisfied, then you are right, Labor will have to talk to the Greens.
If you are wrong, the Greens are stuffed.
@ 1745 now the have put it in those terms it definately would be failure to pass. They have stated their motivatiø, to stop the bill passing.
The Greens have only one strategy in mind, whatever it takes to maximise their votes so they can have the BOP after next election. They are just politicians.
So let them go to the next election as the party that brought down the ETS because it wouldn’t support moderate Liberals when support was needed.
Hear hear! It may not matter in the lower house, but when Green voters come heavily from Labor, and they make up a 9% left bloc, it strips Labor of any remote possibility that they could hold a Senate majority on their own.
And THAT’S what they hate. The fact they no longer have a monopoly on the left.
Labor hackery only gets you so far! Suck it up princesses!
Are they? I thought they were completely pure!! That’s at least what Labor hackery tells us
Bob1234! lets reflect on the Greens for a moment, yesterday i susgested that the Greens make a big policy shift to invest massive amounts of money into renewable and public transport, i recall your response was no for the Greens will not make any deals for we are not Meg Lees.
As Senator Wong has pointed out no other country is going with the target range that the Greens want and all the Greeens can sa is o your playing politics.
Sure Senator Wong is for she belongs to the Australian Labor Party, the party of the workers of the Hunter, La Trobe Valley etc.
The Grrens appear to only be interested in representing uni students and rich people who want to run there air conditionors without the feeling of quilt
Mexicanbeemer
“Now yesterday i may a suggestion that if it was Green policy would actually have played the Greens into it, but instead or we have is the Greens going on about a 25-40% target.
Can you rephrase this, it makes no sense.
“The Greens basically are refusing to put forward any real alternative other than an excessive target that will be rejected by most Australians while the Greens will be patting themselves on the back for still polling less than the DLP.”
The IPCC says that Global GHG emissions needs to peak in 2015, then progressively reduce. The current CPRS has Australian emissions peaking in 2034. This is too late. As a first world, intelligent country it is a responsibility of ours to try and make this happen, if we can’t who can? We can’t just do something small because it’s easier and more people will accept it. This is not an issue that should be based on political expediency.
(I suppose I’m not qualified to comment, but) I don’t feel angry towards the Greens. I’m sure they’ve done what they thought was right in the circumstances.
Nevertheless, all this “we will have the BOP after the next election” stuff is based on a series of assumptions that may or may not prove correct in practice. If not, history is going to judge the Greens’ current stance as a pretty big miscalculation.
You just lost the last ounce of credibility you had left with that single statement. Bravo!
Exactly! Labor will never agree to the extreme position of the Greens and sit idly by and watch the whole Australian economy collapse in a pile of dust!
The Greens are irrelevant now, they will be irrelevant even with holding a balance of power!!!
The Liberals will remain in the box seat no matter what happens now or later unless the original Labor ETS is presented to a joint sitting after a DD!
Brown and Milne are either well aware of that and are presenting a contrary and deceitful view to their supporters or are in some sort of self-deceived, fairy land like many of their supporters!
People can take their pick of the two, but the Greens are and will remain, irrelevant!
Antony Green from the ABC says the Greens *will* hold the BoP after the next election, assuming Labor retains government.
Nothing is a certainty but this is a 95%’er.
So explain why the Greens have voted with the government more than any other since 2007?
Oops, I just burst your imaginationland bubble! Sorry!!!!
To lose credibility with Bob is to wear a “badge of honour” of the highest order!
Mexicanbeemer
“As Senator Wong has pointed out no other country is going with the target range that the Greens want and all the Greeens can sa is o your playing politics.
Sure Senator Wong is for she belongs to the Australian Labor Party, the party of the workers of the Hunter, La Trobe Valley etc.
The Grrens appear to only be interested in representing uni students and rich people who want to run there air conditionors without the feeling of quilt”
This again, makes no sense.
This issue is about what we need to do to prevent climate change getting to a bad state. We have an opportunity to become world leaders in solar technology (see the links I gave before). The Labor Party would rather support coal and ‘clean coal’… The physical reality, the actual reality in the real world is that we need to get away from coal. It’s sad, but this is the truth. We need to adress this problem quickly.
Astrobleme!
Yesterday i susgested that the Australian Greens should say okay we do not like this CRPS for the Target is not what we want butbecause we want this country to move in the right direction on this then we will support the bill but on two conditions.
1 – The Government commits $5Billion over five years to upgrading and expanding Public Transport
2- That half og the $7Billion being given to Industry has to be spent on renewable engery sources ($3.5 Billion)
The response from Bob1234! was that the Greens could not do that for they would not betray the corebase like Meg Lees did in agreeing to the GST.
ho hum.
Show me just once where they have voted with the Government on any aspect of the ETS!
Take your time, now! You will need it!
Dyno
“If not, history is going to judge the Greens’ current stance as a pretty big miscalculation.”
No, because the CPRS we get will be one of a Labor-Coaltion design. This is not about this CPRS or no CPRS. This is only about what the CPRS looks like in the end. We will get a CPRS, either on Monday or shortly after the next election.
Either way I don’t see that this will adversely affect the Green vote.
Astrobleme what is confusing about Senator Wong belonging to a politcal party that was founded to represent the interest of the workers in industries that the Greens do not like.
My comment about Uni students and rich people sums up the Green’s core vote.
Psephos 1814!
Agreed!
The sandpitters are bored waiting for the theatre of Monday and Tuesday to start.
mexicanbeemer continues to shift the goalposts in true Labor hackery form.
Mexicanbeemer
“1 – The Government commits $5Billion over five years to upgrading and expanding Public Transport
2- That half og the $7Billion being given to Industry has to be spent on renewable engery sources ($3.5 Billion)”
Did you suggest this to the Greens?
Or just decide that this was what they should do.
Do you seriously think Labor would support point 2? Of course they wouldn’t. They are determined to aid the coal and aluminium industry, that’s whole point of this CPRS.
Of course the Greens would support a CPRS that transferred the industry support to renewable support – but this would never happen.
Scorpio
“Show me just once where they have voted with the Government on any aspect of the ETS!”
Why should they? They have always said it was bad, why should they support something they think is bad?
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26416287-5005962,00.html
Mexicanbeemer
if this is boring, why are you discussing this?
This is a serious issue and has been for some time.
You really wouldn’t want to be on the wrong side of Turnbull. If he was so sure of Hockey’s support, I doubt that he could be so strident.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/malcolm-turnbull-says-consensus-candidate-wont-work/story-e6frg6n6-1225805026686
Sorry to burst your bubble, Bob, but as far as the ETS goes, that will not be worth a tinkers cuss!
The ETS will either be passed at this sitting, passed after a DD or passed after the next election with Liberal support!
The BOP won’t be worth a tin of beans because Labor will “never” accept radical amendments which will cripple the country. Labor wasn’t elected for that and won’t be elected again threatening to do that.
The deniers are putting up that the current ETS with Liberal amendments will do that so there is no chance of Labor ever changing it to 40% targets or any other radical Green proposal!
I can’t be clearer than this and many others have said similar things including Penny Wong!
Not to mention don’t have the Senate numbers for.
But i’m sure we’ll keep hearing the lines peddled that the Greens oppose everything… despite the fact they’ve sided with the Rudd government more than any other.
The truth hurts and cuts so so deeply…
I was thinking about suggested to them but though i would road test it here first.
If the Government had rejected that then the Greens would have the moral high ground over the ALP.
Funi to Wang Wang: i did not have sex with him, and you can shove your stick to the bamboo forest:
http://www.usmagazine.com/celebritynews/news/tiger-alleged-mistress-tells-us-i-have-not-had-an-affair-with-him-1970218
Agreed.
I agree. Turnbull is conducting a public campaign for Hockey’s vote.
From a Liberal viewpoint, this is all just so compellingly awful to watch.
The Greens want to negotiate but Labor refuses to, because as we know, Labor prefers to put politics before good policy, so they try and make the coalition vote for their scheme(s), or oppose their scheme(s).
Sure it’s fun to watch the coalition in their current meltdown, but at what cost?
They can do what they like! It doesn’t change the fact that they are irrelevant in regards the introduction of an ETS!
Sorry, but that is just the reality!
The issue is far from boring! but as Scarpat wrote the real fun will be watching Monday and Tuesday.
The Greens have conducted themselves better than the Nats and certain sections of the Liberal Party but i believe they could be more agressive in the current climate.
Scorpio
“The ETS will either be passed at this sitting, passed after a DD or passed after the next election with Liberal support!”
There is a third alternative, that the legislation get’s passed with Greens support. So the Greens position delays nothing. What it offers is a real solution that goes beyond lip service.
You just deemed them universally irrelevant! Make up your bloody mind!
Or is the conflicting Labor hackery all becoming a bit too much for you?
Bob1234! And that is why if the Greens walked into the senate and said this is what we want would have more teeth than just saying that the target isn’t high enough
Mexicanbeemer
I urge you to either watch Christine Milne’s interview on Meet the Press this morning or read the transcript. She clearly articulates the Greens position.
Whatever happens on Tuesday I don’t know how any of the protagonists are going to be able to look each other in the face again and say they are friends or even colleagues. A lot of things are being said that can’t be unsaid. The divide is huge.
Bob1234! i have never said the Greens were irrelevant, i have said they could be more agressive at forcing the senate to focus on ths issue and ultimately getting a better bill then one that just gives billions to one part of the economy.
http://www.australia.to/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=16878:meet-the-press-kevin-andrews-christine-milne&catid=157:just-in&Itemid=310
Australians don’t feel they have enough information on the Rudd ETS. Well there’s a surprise…
Note. If you want to troll this site just start a greens flame war. It has worked this time and every time. The same lot cannot help it when poked with a stick.
Oh was that one of the other Labor hacks? My apologies.
Mexicanbeemer
“And that is why if the Greens walked into the senate and said this is what we want would have more teeth than just saying that the target isn’t high enough”
they did actually outline what they wanted. However, given the present situation in the Senate and the opportunity for Labor to destroy the Libs, the ALP chose to negotiate with the Coalition. As a Greens memeber I can clearly understand the rationale for doing this. However, after the next election there will be a good opportunity for the Govt to negotiate with the Greens and guarantee the passage of the Bill. It seems negotiating with the Coalition is rather difficult.
Someone, no names, is just after a good fight. Plenty of name calling (which is the sole aim of the debate in this person’s mind) and little substance. I wonder if they’ll recognise who I’m talking about now.
Astro, what the Greens are offering is something that they “can’t” deliver and they are going to have to just sit back and watch as Labor either gets it through this sitting with Lib amendments, un-amended after a DD or with Lib support after a General Election!
That is just the reality! Anything else is sorry, but un-reality!!!
TP and GB
You may not be interested in this discussion, but it’s no flame war. If you don’t like it start your own discussion.
LOL. Yeah, sure.
http://www.australia.to/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=16878:meet-the-press-kevin-andrews-christine-milne&catid=157:just-in&Itemid=310
Yawn. Sooner he’s gone, the better.
Scorpio
“Astro, what the Greens are offering is something that they “can’t” deliver and they are going to have to just sit back and watch as Labor either gets it through this sitting with Lib amendments, un-amended after a DD or with Lib support after a General Election!”
The Greens can only deliver it with the Govt. And in fact it would actually be the Govt delivering it anyway.
This idea that the Greens should rush to support the legislation just because Labor will only deal with the Coalition just doesn’t make sense. The Greens position is based on what the IPCC says we need to do to avoid nasty climate change. I suggest that if we don’t even try to do that then no one else will and we will face the awful consequences.
http://www.australia.to/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=16878:meet-the-press-kevin-andrews-christine-milne&catid=157:just-in&Itemid=310
What? The stance the Greens are taking on the ETS is GOOD for the Green vote?
Quite obviously, Grattan hasn’t been listening to Labor hackery. What a loss.
Bob, there are some backbenchers who haven’t yet worked out why they are backbenchers.
But we keep getting told it will destroy not save the economy! Oh the conundrum!!!
It’s just a pity that Labor puts politics before good policy by refusing to negotiate with the Greens, just so they can embarrass and show up the coalition. Great for entertainment value, but not much else…
Oh look! Something Greens and Labor hacks can agree on!!!
Bob, the problem is that the maths don’t lie. Labor + Greens = two short. Don’t think X and Fielding will come on board.
GB, Australia Second XI needs practice.
Thanks Bob1234
I had been waiting for that transcript to come online. It certainly clearly shows the Greens policy and why they won’t support the current one.
The Finningans
Why don’t you offere something to the disussion?
Maybe read the transcript?
Finns, I refuse to believe that ther is anyone more shallow than myself on this blog.
scarpat, Milne makes the same point some of the Labor hacks do, which is that if Labor bothered to negotiate with the Greens and Xenophon (who are very similar in what they want out of an ETS), all they’d need is a single coalition Senator to cross the floor.
But does Labor bother? No. Because Labor is more interested in playing politics than good policy – they’d rather put the coalition in a mess. Which whilst it’s good for entertainment value, it’s not good for much else. Meanwhile, the globe continues to warm.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26416304-5005962,00.html
Scarpat, who am i to comment. we just love the shallow water where the miserable mices fishes are
http://photos-d.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc1/hs141.snc1/5216_107312909653_8279049653_2005915_5652768_n.jpg
Bob, I can’t see any coalition Senator crossing the floor for any ETS other than the one currently before the House even given the ructions that the Libs are going through.
Troeth is a possibility.
Who else is a possibility? Which Liberal Senators do we know of who believe in an ETS?
Coming back to the important issue at the moment, Turnbull has come out swinging again.
“Joe Hockey has told me as recently as last night that I have his complete support,” Mr Turnbull said.
“Joe is absolutely at one with me on the need to get this legislation passed.”
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/opposition-leader-malcolm-turnbull-declares-i-will-win-on-tuesday/story-e6frf7l6-1225805020624
I imagine the Minchin trogs are absolutely flabbergasted at Turnbull’s tenacity. They’ve dominated the ideological battles within the Party for years through their bullying and bastardy. They are now completely unprepared for a real challenge to their ascendancy.
Should Turnbull emerge triumphant on Tuesday, he will have the power to remake the Liberal Party in his own image. The opponents have all resigned and Turnbull will be able to pick his own team.
Is he retiring soon?
Any herbiced handy ?
Finns, love your photo. You certainly are a handsome mammal!
bob1234
WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT!
The ALP could have negotiated world peace with the Green and it wouldn’t make one single ounce of difference. They didn’t refuse to negotiate with the Greens. They simply didn’t negotiate with them because the Greens simply can’t deliver the legislation through the senate.
I personally hope that after the next election the Greens do hold the BoP. They, as you have pointed out, the ALP will have an avenue for passing the CPRS through negotiation with the Greens and should avail themselves of that opportunity – as I’m sure they will.
But right now the Greens can’t negotiate anything because they currently have the numbers in the senate to deliver precisely diddly squat.
Bob1234! Lets say the Greens and the ALP reached a deal and the Liberals vote it down because the right wing said so then the reult would be that the Greens would receive a large swing from disgruntled small L Liberals who this week basically were told to bugger off.
And that has been my point, now it is known that the Government has previously dismissed the Greens and for this reason i susgest the Greens come up with an agressive policy idea that would play to its base and make good policy sense.
For this i have been called a hack!
Astrobleme,
I am pretty sure that by now you are “well aware” of my opinion on this!
You say:
Labor are dealing with the Coalition, sorry Libs, because the greens put forward a position ( as you say based on IPCC Reports) which they said was their standfast position.
That is unacceptable to Labor because it would cripple the economy. The only way that Labor can get a passable ETS through is with support of the Libs! The Greens have made clear that they will not shift their position closer to Labor’s so therefore they are irrelevant to the current or future negotiations on the ETS!
Which is what I said above and why they are irrelevant to any negotiations on an ETS! Posting links to IPCC Reports and Greens Policy positions on their web site on Pollbludger will “not” advance the Greens position one millimetre!
You can have any position you or Bob Brown and Milne like but it can’t change the reality of the situation, the Greens are totally irrelevant to the current and any future development of an ETS!
The longer Hockey procrastinates, the more he looks like Costello Lite. No balls.
TP, I got a bottle of Roundup
Finns
That’s some smacker you got there!
She and you forget one thing! Rudd is not stupid or so stuck in one position that he can’t move to another!
He is well aware of the famous words, “if the circumstances change, then my position will change”!
He is quite capable of changing his mind as circumstances change and he “wants” this legislation through the Parliament He went to an election promising an ETS and he will deliver an ETS one way or another.
The Coalition are more than aware of this and the rebels are basing their strategy on this “fact”! (So is Fielding by the way!)
If Rudd “can” avoid a DD he will! If he “can’t”, he will certainly bring one on at a time of his choosing which will maximise Labors electoral prospects and not that of the deniers!
From this Courier mail poll someone linked earlier
They don’t like Sloppy in QLD
But they Love Sharman and Peter
as much as the do Malcolm
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/poll/1,,5003440-5042337-0,00.html
Mesma’s toy boy is confident:
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/liberal-party-will-do-malcolm-in/story-e6frezz0-1225804935110
Another excellent post by The Piping Shrike.
http://www.pipingshrike.com/2009/11/conservatives-scramble-for-cover.html#comments
Vera, does this mean that, in Queensland, it is Malcolm versus an alcoholic xenophobiac
You’ve got to love Julia.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26416304-5005962,00.html
Scarpat
another phony poll i think?
I cant believe that Turnbull, Stone and Dutton would all get exactly 6641 votes each.
what are the odds?
The strongest proponents for action on climate change will be Birmingham, Boyce, Brandis, Humphries and Troeth. I’m not sure any of them would cross the floor to vote for a Greens/ALP ETS and in any case it’s academic as the ALP will never go the way the Greens want.
Business will demand certainty in the form of a bipartisan approach to carbon trading. They don’t want to have to face the prospects of the ETS significantly changing each time the government does.
There will never be an ETS unless both major parties can agree on one.
Vera,
They took that survey at the LNP Conference! lol
Well at least we now know that Howie will be running the show again if Joe gets the gig.
Vera, pretty good given that it comes from the New Ltd stable!
One thing that amazes me is the constant cry from Liberals that the ETS is all just a front for Rudd’s huge ego and his attempt to become UN General Secretary / international media darling. Do they really believe this? I find it very bizarre.
If the ETS is in play at the next election and it is not DD, this is what will be on offer:
Liberal: No ETS
Labor: An ETS if the Liberals, the Greens or the independents agree with our position.
Green: An ETS if Labor agrees with our position.
If it is a DD we will have the following on offer.
Liberal: No ETS
Labor An ETS delivered by a joint sitting that may be challenged in the High Court or a negotiated position with Liberal, Greens or Independents.
Green: Who cares.
If your a rational voter who wants an ETS you will be voting labor. It really is that simple.
Diogenes, that was an absolute gem from Ms Gillard. I really think Labor would do very well under her leadership in the future (although I was a doubter before they won government!).
GG
Becasue B&B are Turnbull’s long suit as well
Troeth is a she. And yes, at the next election.
Joe Hockey “Hey team re The Afghanistan War. Give me your views please on the policy and political debate. I really want your feedback, I don’t know what to do.”
The possibilities are endless.
Scorpio
I didn’t think they had that many (27502) members!
Must have been all those new ones signing up in support of Malcolm this past week
Can you Labor hacks PLEASE get your Labor hackery right? You’re as much of a rabble as the coalition at the moment.
Either the Greens don’t have the numbers to pass the ETS on their own and the government should continue to refuse to negotiate with the crossbench
or
The Greens combined with X and another ETS-minded Senator can pass the ETS and the Greens should be negotiating with Labor, despite Labor refusing to negotiate with the crossbench
Labor hackery can get a bit contradictory and confusing at the best of times though, so I can’t say i’m surprised.
I still can’t believe that Hockey would go to see Howard. You don’t go to talk to somebody, anybody, when your integrity is on the line and you want to be seen as a leader. What is Howard going to say. You have to do it for the good of the party, Joe, just as I did by giving up the leadership 18 months before the last election. Oh! Joe, these are the ways to keep your seat when you are apddling against the tide . Oh!
The Gillard ‘tweet’ thing reminds me of the ridiculous ‘Senator Online’ campaign which was meant to elect a puppet who would only vote according to how people voted on online polls.
Imagine Senator Online’s speeches in the Parliament: “Well I have my own opinion on this policy but here it goes… the winner is “No” with 51% of the vote!” Or perhaps Senator Online could get people to write comments when they submit votes and then he/she could just read the comments out in the chamber.
Whatever the outcome, we will be asking the question of Hockey, “Did you or did you not accept the advice of the Rodent?”
Bob, Oops, he is a she. I knew that. My bad.
bob1234
Politics is a subtle business, the cards you hold determines how you play the game. The Greens can no longer use the impotent argument to justify there position. If the ETS falls they will be partly responsible . They will have to justify their position.
fredn they have been ‘justifying their position’ all along. To them the CPRS is a scheme which sets Australia up for failure on climate change action, penalises people for doing the right thing and compensates big polluters.
The question will be whether the voters agree with them. We’ll see at the election.
Another win for Kev
http://www.smh.com.au/world/australia-to-host-2011-commonwealth-meeting-20091129-jyit.html
They had some sort of threshold like 100,000 votes otherwise they’d vote with their conscience.
Please, let my people go, and you can have the Golan Height back.
fredn, that’s your view, thank god you’re wrong.
Yes, nice to see Howard reduced to the same odium that was reserved for any reference to Whitlam, there is such a thing as karma.
I agree, the difference now is they will no longer be able to run the argument; our position didn’t matter. If the ETS is still on the table they and the right wing nutters in the liberal party will be responsible.
Day 5 since since Mesma’s put her head up.
You Labor hacks can’t even get your lines right anymore, in one moment their position matters, but in another moment their position doesn’t.
All we know is one thing – the Green vote has stayed the same or risen since the last election. Like every election since 1996. And it’s a near certainty that they’ll hold the BoP after the next election.
when turnbull wins the spill who will be on his frontbench, Hockey as deputy and shad treasurer marisa payne ldr of the senate others?? ideas please
BK
Hmmm,
Meerkat Manor?
bob1234
I can assure you bob I am no Labor Hack. I am hoping Turnbull wins; I want a ETS and I want a Liberal party I can support.
Troeth is a moderate on immigration matters. I’m not aware that she’s a moderate on anything else. I recall that she spoke against the CPRS, but I don’t have access to a searchable Hansard at the moment.
She’s still learning her lines!
http://www.nicholsoncartoons.com.au/cartoons/new/2008-12-04%20Julie%20Bishop%20speech%20patterns%20600.jpg
vera.
When she does put her head up it will probably like “whack a mole”
In my view, when Turnbull wins, Hockey will be deputy for sure, he may as well be anyway. After that it will be opportunities galore for the next generation. As it should be. The question is; what will the mad right do next.
The ETS campaign reminds me of the anti-smoking campaign.
50 years ago we knew smoking was bad. First it was banned in cinemas, then offices, then shopping centres, then restaurants, then clubs and then pubs.
Enormous resistance each step, the wrongfulness of the science that smoking was harmful, the doctors promoting the benefits of smoking, the economic consequences to the various industries that such bans would affect. The onesided feralness of the politically correct lefties in interferring with an individuals right of choice.
Any party that proposed the measures we have in place now for smoking as the starting non-negotiable point would be absolutely wacko.
I don’t understand the science of ETS, I know the climate is changing, I believe we are causing the change, but you tackle this in small steps.
You set up the mechanism to change as labor proposes and then you can work with that. I don’t think the greens approach is understood or appreciated, they risk losing votes for being a bunch of idealists instead of pragmatists.
If Turnbull wins he will not be able to purge the denialists, he can’t allow this split to become permanent. Michin is probably beyond hope, but he’ll need to get Abbott and Abetz back at least. That’s why it’s in his interests to get his Senators to pass the CPRS on Monday, if he can. Then the boil will be lanced as it were, and on Tuesday he can say to the party, the CPRS is behind us, let’s unite and get back to all the other issues, such as… um, the economy.
Hack
BK
Julie probably knows when she’s not wanted. We may never she her again.
The latter for no other reason than to take some of the Grech heat?
William Conroy @ 1909
Ian Macfarlane would have to be (& deserves to be) promoted. He has performed well in the negotiations with Penny Wong and has come across as very honourable and decent. I think he should be Deputy and be given Treasury if he wants it. Where is sloppy Joe? He should be decent and honourable enough to come out & support Turnbull. But no he has to scurry around to the Rodent and be his fundamental orifice.
Joe Hockey is sure one “smart” political operator! Has he heard of a “telephone?”
By going to visit Howard (and getting caught doing so) to seek his wise counsel, Hockey has “snookered” both himself and Howard!
Turnbull has been banging on for days now that the amended ETS is virtually the same as that which Howard took to the last election and which was approved unanimously by the Party Room in 2007 and which had been approved only about two weeks ago.
For Hockey to stand as a leadership candidate proposing a platform of “no” ETS after all this time being in favour of one would label him an opportunistic hypocrite, would further damage Howard’s tainted legacy as having taken a “non”core” policy to the last election and Hockey would have done exactly the same thing.
Hockey is now, severely damaged goods and if he stands in Tuesday’s spill, will be absolutely destroyed by Labor if he gets up.
The rebels are now in big trouble. Abbott is totally non-viable and their fall-back candidate, Tuckey is also non-viable. Andrews, anyone???
Turnbull has been handed the leadership back to him on a plate by Abbott, Hockey, Howard and the Rebels!
Vera,
That was a good song. You don’t hear it much anymore! Pity!
I like this line by Turnbull, Joe the cuddly, friendly face of the Libs sounds like a put down more than a compliment. Weak leader is what it suggests to me.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/29/2756567.htm?section=justin
Troeth is/was one of the Turnbull/amended CPRS backers…
Scorpio
Good point. But either Hockey is stupid, or, is thinking of a gameplan to appeal to the Old Guard Howardites by being undoubtedly seen to be annointed by The Rodent himself?
Castle
We don’t have the same time frame to act on AGW as we did on smoking. We had the luxury of doing it step by step. With AGW that step by step methodology leads to bad climate change.
scorpio
You have given sound reasons why Hochey should not stand. I don’t think he will, he is not that stupid. As to visiting Howard and the Twitter thing, he may have been doing loyal deputy things. Ok I accept that may be gilding the lilly; but the argument could be put.
Laocoon,
That’s why it is so hilarious! If Hockey ran with a policy of no ETS, under the advice of Howard, then it means the ETS Howard took to the election with the 100% support of Hockey, was a “non-core” promise by both of them
Howard’s legacy, damaged by Hockey getting caught seeking his counsel and Hockey himself for promoting a Howard style “non-core” policy!
Anyone notice William’s latest update to the Willagee thread? It starts with:
fredn,
If Hockey stands with a “no” ETS policy on Tuesday and gets up, there is only one line Labor will take to him with and that is Hockey stands for non-core policies, cannot be trusted whatsoever and they still have workchoices and a swag of other things to bury Hockey so deep that the Kimberly diamond mines are just a scratch on the surface!
fredn
Would not the more direct loyal thing to do would be to walz up to Point Piper, stand in Grand Mal’s front door and say he’s not challenging?
Our Frank, never!
Scorpio
You dont get the nickame Rodent for nothing
Would Hockey then be like that escaped kangaroo in Tom & Jerry cartoons? A super-sized Rodent?
I wonder if Frank will admit that the Greens were able to reduce Labor’s margin in Willagee to just 10%?
If Hockey stands, and according to the ABC news at 15:00 in Sydney, it is more likely than not that he will, he cannot come out of this situation with any integrity after backing both Turnbull and the ETS agreement. What the reactionaries are counting on, perhaps, is the long summer break coming up and that Joe returns as a ‘fresh’ face in the New Year.
He’ll probably admit that Labor won without “any” loss in its primary vote and “without” this time getting Greens preferences!
Outstanding performance! Outstanding!
Please, please, please let it be Tony:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/malcolm-turnbull-says-consensus-candidate-wont-work/story-e6frg6n6-1225805026686
Chainsaw’s voice is a bit of a put down whereas prissy is a STFU.
I am hoping for a “night of the long knives” ie downfall of the SA or in this case the CC denialists one can only hope. oh hum roll on tuesday
The real reason Abbott is contesting the leadership: so Kevin Rudd doesn’t have a trophy to take to Copenhagen!
Proof positive that this lot are motivated more by hatred of Rudd than anything else!
CHOGM is a pointless load of nothing.
No Shows
Let it be Hockey so that when he loses the next election and steps down they will have lost their last leader with a snowballs chance in hell of ever being electorally competative.
I hope he does! If he wins or loses, his credibility as a conviction and honest politician is totally shredded both ways!
Hockey’s political career will be limited to a political carcase swinging in the breeze until the next election where he will be cut down and given a dishonourable political burial!
If he doesn’t stand, he can at least live to fight another day!
The Liberals, who got 31% of the primary vote last time, didn’t stand. As a result, all four candidates received a primary vote swing. Greens on 13%, ind Green on 9%, CDP on 7%, Labor on a measly 2%.
And the margin that Labor holds the seat on has been considerably cut, with the Greens on ~40% 2pp, something the Liberals couldn’t do.
Yes, outstanding performance indeed Labor!!!
Oh, and Labor won the primary vote in the last election, so they didn’t need preferences to win last time either.
Damn that Labor hackery!!!
That’s just what I said! Good to see we agree on something at least!
Any Labor hack who thinks winning a seat on a reduced margin needs to take a good hard look at their contradictory Labor hackery lines.
bob1234 are you still going on about Willagee. Again, as stated by the esteemed Mr Green:
bob1234 and Astroboy Re Willagee Watch and weep
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8HUbD_TJD4
Better still, which of the bottom 5 on the Govt “back bench” could Hockey hope to match?
I give you all the easy questions, BK!
Answers, too! “ZERO!”
There’s only one thing that counts!
Winners are grinners, the rest can please themselves!
Eratosthanes.
And THEN the right wing nutters will say that Hockey didn’t win because he wasn’t conservative enough, and that he believes in climate change, and THEN they will put a nutter like Abbott or Andrews in charge who will REALLY lose an election.
The nutters need to lose in a massive landslide before they will accept they are wrong.
I suspect that Howard has conned Hockey into running because of Howard’s hatred of Turnbull’s moderate views.
Frank
I have made no commentary on Willagee.
Every time Bob baits up the old hook and casts it out, he thinks he gets a bite and only ends up pulling in an old boot! ‘-)
Good work, Bob!
Must be nearly time for your medication, I think!
Now, run along like a good little boy please and into your cot!
Dutton visiting hockey
No need to Astro! Bob’s doing it for you!
What’s this Thomas Paine?
That’d be hilarious! Both the Liberal Leader and Deputy losing their seats at the next election!
Howard would be dirty on being out-done by a couple of “second stringers”! lol
Martin tweet
I can see why Rudd doesn’t want a DD. The Liberals have managed to create an complete impasse for themselves. From Rudd’s point of view, the longer the Liberals tear at each other over this issue, the easier things will become for him.
The Liberals have to come to terms with some basic facts. Changing leaders will not resolve their problems – they have to change themselves first. They have to accept the empirical reality of climate change and decide to be a part of the solution to the greatest challenge our species has ever faced. They have to accept that this issue is not a hoax or a fraud, and that, far from going away, it will become an ever-more pressing issue. The tories have evaded their responsibilities for many years, and can continue to do so. But if they choose evasion, they will not only be choosing electoral irrelevance. Even more than this, they will be doing themselves, their supporters, the country and the rest of the planet a terrible dis-service.
This will become ever more obvious to the public as time goes on, and, by the same process, Labor will look ever more like the party of capable, responsible and secure government.
That’s because the majority of Liberal voters voted Green, as you know perfectly well. And why did they do that? Because they know Labor is their main enemy, and that strengthening the Greens weakens Labor.
I am sure Bob1234 will be finding a rock at about 7:30 next Saturday when Clive flops in Higgins.
And it’s an incovenient truth for some
As an aside, with the current Liberal woes, will those small l Liberals park their vote with the greens ?
Psephos! The Greens do struggle to realise that they are no different than the DLP, they were always polling strongly in ALP areas for ALP voters could not bring themselves to vote directly for the Liberals/
Great.
I can’t wait to hear Gillard, Wong, Combet get stuck into Hockey for selling out his principals just so he could become leader.
It’ll go something like this:
Joe Hockey has ratted on his leader, ratted on the parliament and ratted on the Australian people. He is now King Rat.
Excellent summary of the Greens and so true.
Yes, Astro
My apologies, the step by step approach over the years probably meant about only an extra 2 million people people died of smoking related diseases and probably only an extra 5 million were hooked on it than if an all or nothing approach had been taken.
That is assuming the all approach succeeded, more likely the nothing would have been the result with smoking still in cinemas, airplanes, offices and shopping centres and everyone able to enjoy the health benefits of Laramies.
I don’t know whether the greens approach of all or nothing is the right one, maybe it will work, maybe some other third party will arise that will negotiate in a different mindset and the greens will become a minor party like CDP or FF, a loyal little group of supporters with a particular drum to beat.
I am not abee to link it but Peter Martin has written a blog basically taking Joe Hockey’s record to task, not a pretty sight.
I bet that should Hockey push the CPRS off to a committee then Labor will tag him with Howard’s core and non-core promises. Labor’s message will be that Hockey will say and do whatever it takes to advance his own interests ahead of the interests of the nation. He will be a very big target in more ways than one.
Is it this one?
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2009/11/two-of-likely-candidates-tuesday-are.html
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/
Yep! Thanks for that
1969
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/
Also that he is a lying treacherous two-faced dog, although we may leave that line to Turnbull.
Gillard got in some early blows this morning on Insiders:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,26416304-29277,00.html
Of course, he has been a completely ineffectual shadow treasurer who has spent most of his time spouting nonsense.
LOL
Yes, I await Turnbull’s comments almost as much as those of Rudd and Gillard.
Whatever it was, it was good enough foe Labor to win Government with a landslide, knock a sitting PM out of his seat and all this just 3 years after a crushing defeat at the 2004 election!
Bloody good “spin” if you ask me! If Rudd didn’t define himself over a number of years leading up to Nov 24, 2007, then where did the 68% PPM ratings come from? Where did the up to 60% 2PP figures come from? Spin? Yuh gotta be kidding me!!
If Hockey stands the question then becomes, will he last to the election. Clearly he will not be in a position to bring the mad right under control. That will be done by the electorate.
Hockey actually is a worst leadership choice than Abbott for Hockey has openly opoosed the Government’s stimulas that helped to avoid a recession.
Abbott simplly has some strange ideads but nothing as stupid as thinking the way to avoid recession is to cut spending.
P.S I head Mel and Koshy will be the new parlianment speakers.
Hockey will crash and burn as Liberal leader. They still haven’t solve the problem of what to do about the CPRS, yet now the public knows that something like 40% of the Coalition partyroom are climate change deniers.
Turnbull has already set Hockey up for that line in his interview with Laurie Oakes this morning
Not to mention that if Turnbull is rolled he will quit, which means they will lose Wentworth which Hockey will be blamed for.
Actually I’d like Turnbull to lose the leadership just so we can hear him pay out on his colleagues. Ought to be great entertainment.
I was responding to someone’s comment about how defined himself when he was ‘running for leadership’. This was a much shorter time period than running for the election.
In any case I looked up some interviews with him at the time and my recollection was wrong. He did speak a lot about his general position going forth. There’s been a stunning lack of that in this leadership battle!
I think the modern term is “I misspoke.”
Hockey just won’t be believed by anyone. Everyone will know that he actually wants the CPRS passed.
At least when Abbott says things that are wrong everyone at least knows that he sincerely believes what he says.
That someone was me
Itep, you have been inducted to join Diog in the wRONg Hall of Fame, along side Speers. Congratulation.
Just imagine the work that’s going into Hockey and Dutton right this minute preparing them for the presser. There are so many difficult questions that will be asked. The presser will be short and not so sweet I guess but on Tuesday they’ll be expected to face a long and detailed series of questions and I think Hockey will make a complete hash of it.
Will he have to face QT on Tuesday if the senate and reps are required to sit another day? That should be a blood bath.
ltep,
Yeah, OK! Just remember that you have to be “very” specific here, otherwise you could end up in the position I found myself in a couple of days ago when I had flames coming at me from so many sides and so quickly that my eyebrows got singed!
Castle
“Yes, Astro
My apologies, the step by step approach over the years probably meant about only an extra 2 million people people died of smoking related diseases and probably only an extra 5 million were hooked on it than if an all or nothing approach had been taken.
That is assuming the all approach succeeded, more likely the nothing would have been the result with smoking still in cinemas, airplanes, offices and shopping centres and everyone able to enjoy the health benefits of Laramies.
I don’t know whether the greens approach of all or nothing is the right one, maybe it will work, maybe some other third party will arise that will negotiate in a different mindset and the greens will become a minor party like CDP or FF, a loyal little group of supporters with a particular drum to beat.”
Well, two things.
First the smoking analogy fails because smoking now doesn’t affect all other humans in the future, so the take it slowly approach was fine. We can’t do this for AGW because the slower we take it now the worse it is for future generations.
Secondly the Liberal party and ALP already support the notion of taking it slowly, why would the Greens also support this? ESPECIALLY seing they have always wanted to go hard on this. We need to go hard quickly, that’s what the science says.
So, what we have is two options (especially with the coming election):
We can go slowly (ALP+Coalition)
We can go quickly (ALP+Greens)
The Greens are promoting a plan to tackle this quickly and actually meet the requirements that the IPCC claims the Australia needs. This plan will also promote renewables and create some new industry in Australia – finally we stop simply being the world’s mine and create something.
I posted links to CSIRO’s research on solar polymer, but there is more than that going on. This presents itself as an opportunity for Australia, we can move and modify our economy and help prevent AGW. Or we can just go on with coal and slowly cook ourselves.
Monday will be a bloodbath!
What do you mean by that?
If the Libs win Bradfield on 50.1% of the 2pp, should they be grinning and consider themselves winners?
People were talking of referring to you as scorchio
Tuesday will just be a mopping up operation!
Not to mention the fact that there was no Liberal candidate at all
Will there be a Reps QT on Monday?
“The party that broke a nation’s heart.”
Tuesday will be the day when the carcasses are piled up and incinerated.
And who did they vote for last time?
Oh, that’s right, THE LIBERALS! Which means the vote was on the non-Labor 2PP/2CP anyway!!!
That’s so illogical that i’ll put it down to baiting and move on.
Steve,
I can guarantee that it certainly felt like it!
I was so pleased to see Bob back, but where is Truthy when you need him/her?
out in his tinnie,overseerng the ongoing defence of our marine assests against foreign looking types
I heard a radio interview with Minchin this afternoon where he said his daughter heard some of the things that horrid Mr. Turnbull had been saying about him. He told her,
“That’s alright darling. It’s just politics.”
He’s used her before, in the recent 4-Corners, to say that the nasty Climate Change believers had been scaring her witless with their horrible predictions about Global Warming.
This guy is seriously sick. It will be warming to see that smarmy snile wiped off his face in the not too distant future, daughter or no daughter.
Truthy has had to tow 3 boats back into international waters this last 48 hours so he’s somewhat occupied ATM
I doubt it. But there SHOULD be a house of reps debate demanding that the Liberal Party stick to its promises.
I look forward to seeing who in the Liberal will be willing to argue that the Liberal party should break promises.
I think there is an excellent chance turnbull will hang around for a while, at least, if he is rolled/ replaced by the sloppy one.
And why not ?
I’m sure turnbull is accomplished in the art of payback and will need little encouragement.
Lots of journos to lap up his every word, on or off the record. And all the while twisting the knife into those who have done the same to him. He will never overlook the roles of the likes of minchin, the mad monk,eric the hun and robb. Add mesma to the list.
He would vacant his seat at the time which will do maximum damage to sloppy or the mad monk.
But turnbull may still prevail. You never know. The sloppy one may not have the balls to take the job on anyway. If he does he will have to demonstrate greater ability then he ever has in the past.
Dutton as deputy dawd. Great, bring it on. I still say he is a ticking time bomb and can see him constantly fighting to control himself. One day he will crack big time and it won’t be a pretty sight. He may not even be in the next parliament.
If Hockey gets the leadership, this will go down in history as his “troops home before Christmas” moment:
http://twitter.com/joehockey/
Astro, if you would like to quote someone, just include the quote in square brackets and the quote will be highlighted – makes reading the reply easier
Hope so! Julia should have an all day QT!
If he is meeting with Dutton then the challenge is on.
So it looks like Hockey (the twit that tweeters twat) will roll Turnbull. So it will be a sunrise election in 2010, at least Mel & Koshie will be happy.
Yeah, just off the Sunshine Coast, protecting the LNP pensioners club at their Convention!
Scorpio, the Opposition will be seeing red!
QT on Monday would see Turnbull as leader! What a funny old time that would be. Maybe Turnbull could raise a censure motion against the opposition?
I agree Astro
I also think something needs to be done, unfortunately ALP plus greens equals nothing being done in the present senate. ALP plus coalition means an ETS and something to take to Copenhagen.
Something is better than nothing, no party would be able to reverse any of the anti-smoking measures in place today, but no way they would have got in as one measures.
At the moment the greens look like idealistic dreamers who voted in the senate against the ETS, I don’t agree with their all or nothing approach.
BB,
He comes from Adelaide, doesn’t he?
I don’t know how one can come to that conclusion when Turnbull says he won’t step down, Abbott says he’s prepared to challenge, while Hockey says he’d only take the leadership if he wasn’t challenging for it.
Hey Mesma! Come out now! It’s time to scratch Dutton’s eyes out.
Castle
Well at least we have some agreement!
On what can happen.
Kerry Packer?
When the Greens need Xenophon and one of the coalition or Fielding, as far as the ETS goes it is a nothing or nothing approach.
Just imagine what would happen if the Greens sold out. We know what happened to the Democrats.
Looks like from reports that Tigers wife went for him and/ or the car with a golf club.
That is terribly saddening news.
I play golf myself and to think a golf club may have been used in this way or even damaged in its contact with the car is depressing.
I really think pollbludger needs a DD election so that the Greens hold the sole BOP, then we can watch Labor continue to go to the opposition just to make them take a stand on an issue and embarrass themselves, like with the ETS. That’s because Labor cares more about politics than good policy.
From the Willagee thread – Bob is incapable of reading.
It should be noted, that quote came from the Inside cover by Daniel Haitch.
As things stand Turnbull has to do a Whitlam and keep the leadership through an election loss, big ask for the Liberal party. If Hockey is silly enough to take it on now Turnbull only has to win it back after the next election. Turnbull’s campaign to become prime minister would be in a better position if:
1)Turnbull retains his seat; he may get caught up in the labor landslide.
2)There are enough Liberal members left to form a viable opposition.
I think he will stick around; but then I think Hockey isn’t silly enough to throw his hat in the ring.
I don’t think this letter to a constituent will do Hockey many favours (note the date):
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2009/02/joe-hockey-where-angels-fear-to-tread.html
thanks ShowsOn…probably makes me even less productive…will need to have APAC on all day then
Don’t know if someone has suggested this already, but one way for Hockey would be for him to first suggest that the Senate be given up to 5 days to consider amendments to the CPRS ( and agree this with Gillard so the House of reps could be brought back late on Friday 4 Dec to pass the amended CPRS). Then Hockey would take this option to the party room, and say that agreement to passing the CPRS on 4 Dec was only way he would consider standing for leadership. I think the party room might agree to that.
Hockey should not be underestimated
If the Liberals hit the wall over the next few months, and there is a D.D., then Labor plus Xenophon + someone elected on Xenophon’s ticket could hold the balance of power.
Might be of interest
Absolute GOLD!
Yep Astro.
I try to do a bit with the globes, water saving devices, talk with the kids, etho petrol, not much but it is a start.
But it is why I used the smoking analogy, we know it had to be done, but australians seem reluctant to accept sudden large changes. I think any start is better than none and work on that.
Considering the Greens hold 9% of the left vote and the Senate is proportional, it won’t happen.
johncanb, I don’t think that this a possibility given Minchin’s statements
BK @ 2023
I was referring to ShowsOn @ 2027
The partyroom already agreed to pass the amended CPRS, but was stopped from doing so by a minority nutcase faction.
They don’t just want to delay the CPRS, they want to vote against it. They say they want to delay it just to increase the chance of being able to vote against it.
Poor Bolta on Insiders, looked like he was going to cry. Must be hard to see his raison d’etre (climate change denial) sinking
Nuclear fusion – the holy grail
Minchin does not have a viable strategy without Hockey, so Hockey has a lot of power which he can use.
At least the Democrats stood for something when they sold out!
The Greens are going to stand for nothing and sell out!
Oh, sorry, they are standing with the CC deniers! Same thing really!
Especially when it was clearly pointed out that a majority of Liberals in the partyroom meeting wanted the amended CPRS passed.
The ONLY way it became a close contest was if you include the 9 Nats and 1 CLP who all argued to vote against it.
Considering I put X 2nd on my below the line Senate vote in 07 (with the Greens’ Hanson-Young 1st), i’d actually prefer this situation. It means X would hold as much power as the Greens, which would give Labor three options for passage of legislation – the coalition, X, and the Greens. But it won’t happen.
Maybe he realises that he will be seen as one of the major wreckers of the Liberal party.
An offer he cant refuse. Burn himself for the sake of the party. If turnbull had long term plans it would be best for him as well.
If there’s one thing you cannot accuse the Greens of, it’s standing for nothing.
I almost felt sorry for Bolt on Insiders today, and some of the things he was saying made political sense
Minchin’s strategy is to block the CPRS, nothing less. It is a worldwide conspiracy.
He certainly didn’t want Shrek getting the leadership. Abbott is his man!
Bolter is probably on his way to the bottle shop right now, stocking up to drown his sorrows!
Hockey as leader wouldn’t be as fun as Abbott as leader. However, Dutton as deputy losing his seat at the election would be a good consolation prize.
Wasnt Sloppy announcing his intentions today?? Have I missed it???
If their actions result in no change in policy, then what does it matter what they stand for or what they say?
A good one too! They have got the Pope and now the QoE in the ranks!
Yep, everybodys got to stretch their legs sometime
But Minchin does not have enough numbers with just the sceptics. He has to also carry those who want a CPRS but genuinely want some delay.
The legislation passing with the coalitions support is the worst outcome for Bolta, because if he rails against it, his criticising his own
For very different reasons.
Considering Labor and Liberal vote together more often than any other combination, it’s pretty rich for Labor hacks to go around sprouting their contradictory Labor hackery about the Greens voting no with the Libs.
Go wash your mouth out! Here’s the soap!
OMG 1! Dutton! The bloke who’s likely to lose Dickson! The Libs are in need of a serious holiday!
OMG 2! The game changer in the Liberals’ current fix is Newspoll & what additional questions are asked – and how they are asked. I’m assuming an “Overnighter” so results should be available sometime Monday.
OMG 3! As it’s now too late for the Hockey-Dutton presser to influence Newspoll responses, why are they calling one now? Why did they wait long enough for Turnbull, Gillard etc to do their think on Sunday Morning TV?
Do they already know the Newspoll answers, or are they risking egg all over their face if the responses are “pass the legislation” and “more prefer Malcolm Turnbull”?
OMG 4! If Newspoll does come out as above, what do the Libs do next, especially if they’ve moved contrary to public opinion?
OMG 5! How do they expect to staunch the haemorrhaging of ‘l’ Liberal 1st or 2nd? I doubt many would go to the Greens, as most Libs regard them as the Loony Left and the ALP as far more moderate.
Prophetic words?
Election and polling analyst, Peter Brent, of mumble.com.au on 26 November 2008 wrote:
http://mumble.com.au/ 26 November 2008
http://mumble.com.au/index_oldish44.html
How can Minchin, a federal leader in the senate, get away with his left conspiracy claims?? Should someone ask Cameron, Merkel, Schwartznegger, Key etc what they think of it??
think = thing
Scorpio
I only said some of the things he said made political sense. ie maybe 1 or 2.
And just yesterday, you were saying that the Greens have voted together with Labor more times than they have voted against!
Time to get your story right Bob! You’re contradicting yourself here!
He did say the libs would get thrashed in the election, or something similar
Andrew,
Perhaps Minchin is angling for a job as research assistant for Rush Limbaugh in life after politics.
Anyone to the left of MInchin must be from the left
The ALP senators voted with Senator Joyce and other deniers in several divisions on Greens amendments to strengthen the CPRS this week. This must mean the Government are ‘standing with the CC deniers’!
Minchin said this is not about “personality”. True, because he aint any “personality”, the wet lettuce is more interesting to look at than Minchin.
Now that is an excellent question. I hope it gets asked.
Ok John! You only have to wash your mouth out! I’ll put away the soap!
a) They don’t think the current ETS will do anything and simply ingrain the idea that CC is fixed and there’s no need to improve the ETS (it’s a lot harder to near impossible for a crossbench party to change a policy once it’s implemented).
b) Labor won’t negotiate with the Greens for their own political purposes, they care more about politics than good policy.
c) Labor+Greens+Xen need Fielding or a coalitionist to 1) guillotine and 2) vote with.
Preach on all you want about the Greens not voting for the Rudd ETS, but all one needs to do is observe that since 1996, the Green vote and polling has improved at and after each election. And that continues to the present day. Anyone who votes Green would know by now the Greens do not support and won’t vote for the Rudd ETS. They are staying there because the Greens aren’t doing a Meg. That base is all that’s needed to hold the BoP after the next election. And that’s all I want
They have. On Senate divisions where Liberal and Labor have voted differently this year the Greens have sided with the ALP over 60 times and with Liberal about 15 times.
I really don’t understand the obsession with Hockey when it is absolutely clear that Turnbull won’t back down. Well except for one possibility.
There is a very small chance that between the flat out lunatic denialists and those that just don’t like Turnbull (or are simply aching to push the hard Right agenda in other areas) that they could do a deal where Turnbull steps down and in return the Senate gets a conscience vote, or at least agrees to abstain. Wouldn’t bet my life on that one though, but the interesting question here is, when push comes to shove, how many are really hard core denialists and how many are really in it to push a hard Right agenda. The former wouldn’t ever conscience a deal like that. The latter would let the ETS go and prefer to concentrate on other scare campaigns.
Now if Turnbull doesn’t back down, the odds are probably in his favour of a slim victory. If not Abbott will have a slim victory. God help us. The question I want to focus on here is, to what extent are the Liberals themselves aware of the polling that says that in city seats they are facing a whomping. Are the hard heads doing the maths? Is there a clear dividing line between the seats that will vote in favour of action on AGW, and those seats where there really is a strong anti-AGW trend? As a Liberal member you’d have to be mad not to be talking to the number crunchers.
Possum? you got any ideas how to draw up the map on this issue? And where does Abbotts own seat sit?
No, what I said was that the Greens vote with the government more than the rest – ie: Xen and Fielding. Yet some seem to want Xen more than the Greens. Funny that.
Can that person please come back who examined hansard since 2007 and revealed the figures on who voted with who on bills as well as procedural motions?
Labor hacks know their argument is one that completely lacks substance.
bob1234 @2018
The commentariat are saying that a Hockey challenage would have the numbers hence my post.
..Joe Hockey, … does he have the ticker?
We suspect the answer could be yes, he wouldn’t be meeting Dutton to chat about rugby.
http://www.vexnews.com/news/7505/big-joe-does-hockey-have-the-ticker/
bob1234 @2073 .. The Greens will get no choice in the matter. Either they get the original ETS and try to pass amendments to it or they get the current ETS (which is worse) and try to pass amendments to it. I’d suggest that it is in the Greens’ best interest to wake up and help the government pass its original ETS, and work from there.
Maybe Minchin has offered him Pyne’s seat!
It would be a good opportunity to get rid of Minchin’s long time enemy, Pyne!
Dutton would also be entertaining because he’s got the sort of mouth it seems he can’t control. He notoriously called the Prime Minister “the pig of Australian politics”. Someone who is an ex-police officer, calling another person a “pig”, shows seriously poor judgement and taste. Besides which, that’s no way to talk about the Prime Minister of the country, fresh in his first term, who just happens to have almost record-high levels of support in the community.
Also, considering the number of times he’s been cautioned by the Speaker in Question Time for speaking out of turn and other unruly behaviour suggests he’s likely to put his big stupid foot in it at times it’ll do him most damage.
Pass the popcorn!
I don’t see the logic in Hockey annointing Dutton as his deputy. Bishop will now be hitting the phones to shore up her job.
Has Hockey called a press conference or not? If yes, when?
That’s not the point. Hockey has said he will not challenge Turnbull. Hockey has too much respect for Turnbull – Hockey is a Turnbull man. Hockey will not challenge Turnbull. That does not mean he would not take the leadership.
But unless Turnbull steps down or Hockey changes his mind, it won’t happen. And I don’t think Hockey will challenge Turnbull.
Exactly. So why vote for something if the vote is only a symbolic one?
Where and the links for the Hockey/Dutton meeting and candidacy??
I don’t think so. I thought it was said he’d announce his decision today. Must’ve been more hot air from the media!
Poor old Bob! Ltep has just blasted him right out of the water!
I wonder if Truthy is handy with the dingy!
Itep
Probably another Speers WAG.
Andrew @ 2086 – this is the best I can find atm: http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,26416451-421,00.html
Oh, the other thing here is Abbott as potential shadow treasurer.
Anyone remember his performance in Health during the last election? Do the Liberals really want Abbott making a complete fool of himself and completely undermining their economic policies?
If that happens, what exactly will they campaign on?
But Hockey not challenging I suppose will depend on how much the conservatives manipulate him, as Turnbull points out. Who knows what they could blackmail him with if the conservatives were that desperate for a viable unity candidate.
Exactly!!! And how many times have the Liberals and Labor sided with each other?
And are we talking about just bills or all votes?
Two questions: (a) How could Hockey be stupid enough to forever taint his leadership with a run now and (b) Why is he beaming in the photos
How can the Libs have a viable unity candidate when they hate each otherr?
I haven’t had this much enjoyment for ages! Maybe never and it’s just warming up!
I thought this sort of thing only happened in Queensland! The Liberal Party drew straws to pick a leader there only just a couple of years ago!
bob1234@2085.. you’ve misunderstood.
The Greens had the option of being realistic and getting minor amendments into the ETS. If they had done so they would with the help of the BOP, later be able to make substantial changes.
They now find themselves in a situation where their best chance is to get a few amendments in and hope one or two Liberals cross the floor.
Its either that or take the risk on which ETS that they later have to try to amend.
bob1234, on most occasions votes are unanimous. There’s really only a relatively small number of occasions where the 2 majors don’t agree.
Another thing to note is that on all the bills that the Senate has rejected so far, the Greens have only sided with the Opposition a couple of times. The rest of the time it has either been Xenophon, Fielding or a combination of the two that have caused the bills to be defeated.
What is the likelihood that we will hear a newspoll earlier than expected, as in tonight rather than tomorrow night?
If it is likely, where am I likely to find the info on it? (besides PB of course)
But that is the whole point. Turnbull has told Labor what their campaign against Hockey is, the only way he became leader was by becoming a puppet of the “hard right” “deniers” and “conspiracy theorists” who don’t believe climate change is happening.
Hockey is no longer Hockey, he is simply a proxy for the extremist elements in the party.
What I don’t get is why the Spillists have any legitimate expectation that the party would close ranks if their minority position prevailed, when it is clear they don’t consider themselves equally bound if they lose?
They are essentially saying that they will continue to obstruct their own leadership, call for spills, secret ballots, ignore party conventions and do their own thing in general unless they get their way. Part of their plan is to try to get people to believe they are men and women of their word when they have broken it so many times. In short, they will continue to chuck tummy-up tantrums until everyone gives in and gets them their ice cream. The only way to stop this is to let them – from a minority position – run the party. They have got to be bluffing (Turnbull believes so and vows he won’t be spooked).
If the party lets the Spillists have their way the Liberals will be the greatest bunch of weak-kneed wusses in the history of Australian politics. That this is even possible is incredible to me. That Joe Hockey brought Howard into the equation is equally unbelieveable. That they – Minchin, Hockey, Andrews – get even a glimmer of credibility from the media, or a suckered public for all this takes the cake. And, last of all, Abbott thinking he has the talent or the general appeal to lead anything beyond a fun run knocks me for six.
What about a split with Abbott as leader and Bishop as deputy of the Religious (Far) Right Party
Heard Abbott earlier in the day say Hockey is “nobody’s puppet”.
Oh yeah? Howard pulled his strings and out he went to spruik the shiftul SerfChoices like is was clay. If he feels obliged to the hard-right faction (and I reckon he will) he’ll respond to their string-pulling in the same way he responded to Howard’s, who he no doubt also felt obliged to.
from david speers:
source: hockey and dutton ticket with abbott in treasury. about 1 hour ago from mobile web
I think old King Solomon would get a headache out of a problem like this!
Old Sol would probably tell them to go away and sort it out themselves!
Pass the popcorn!
Maybe the conservative faction said you either take it now or you’ll never get it again? Who knows how much they’re pressuring him to run rather than People Skills Abbott.
BB totally agree. What a strange, strange scenario.
The party negotiated amendments with the government. The majority of the party room supported the amendments. The leader pronounced the outcome. Those in the minority werent happy and are forcing their way on the majority, whose stance by way has the backing of the majority of voters in any event
HoJockey on his Trojan High Horse
giddyup
I agree BB. Why should the ‘moderates’ feel bound by whatever the new leader says is the party line if the sceptics refused to do less than a week ago?
The only thing to point out I suppose is that the sceptics far outnumber the ‘moderates’ in the Senate Liberal team. It also makes it far tougher because the Leader, Deputy Leader, all the whips and the Manager of Opposition Business are also sceptics (well they were in these positions before the resigned… but now they’re ‘acting’ in them or something… I still don’t get it).
could this be david speers no. 13 mistake??
Either here or you could bring up the OO site and hit refresh every 3 seconds from about 10.20pm. Even then PB often gets the result quicker than the OO can publish it. William has friends in many places.
Labor refuse to negotiate with the Greens. Labor prefers to make the coalition go through the agony it’s going through which they knew would happen to some extent (not this much), because they prefer politics over good policy.
Bolt is right. Humans are not responsible for Global Warming … and another reason not to kiss sheep
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/29/2756486.htm
Yet the Labor hacks think Labor is so different from the coalition…
Well the stimulus is one that comes to mind
Rudd Vs Hockey
Gillard Vs Dutton
Swan Vs Abbott
Gus, stop laughing
Three quotes for Joe Hockey:
* Billy Hughes: At least Judas Iscariot had the decency to hang himself afterwards.
* Paul Keating: He will wear his leadership like a crown of thorns.
* Bob Hawke: A lying c*** with a limited future.
Hockey will have to tender his resignation to Turnbull now!
Has Dutton resigned yet?
If not, he will have to resign from the shadow cabinet too won’t he?
Andrew, Speers is already in PB wRONg Hall of Fame.
Many thanks Steve K
Couple of questions:
10:20pm Sydney time?
For the uninitiated on PB jargon, what is the OO site?
Anyway, many thanks
*tips hat to Steve K*
Please, please let it be so.
It’s not that strange. The leading conservatives in the Liberals cannot stomach the ETS and they are in the minority in the party room on the issue, despite being in the majority in terms of conservatives and liberals. This is where it all falls apart for them.
To Follow up on an electoral candidate issue, Brett Cox in the “Illawarra Mercury” reports that parachuted union leader, Stephen Jones, will immediately commence campaigning in the safe seat of Throsby. Incumbent MP Jenny George announced last week that she will retire at the next election.
Previously reported expressions of outrage and bellicose statements demanding rank and file pre-selection by Throsby’s ALP branch members would appear to have come to nothing.
Bob1234! The ALP refused to accept a 40% target for they have a responsibility to the traditional ALP heartland to not recklessly wreck jobs but the Greens don’t want to accept this and claim their heartland is more worthy of protection
Regards
The Hack
Please bring back Celebrity Deathmatch!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Celebrity_Deathmatch
He saved dio’s ass, thats for sure!
But a cuddle is still alright?
Sigh. Typical Labor.
negotiate. Despite the Greens wanting to.
Because the Greens target of 40% is excessive
What, cud chewer, you can’t get enough from Malcolm versus the Libs?
And that’s why parties negotiate. But Labor didn’t want to.
I can’t believe Hockey would be so stupid. If he takes it, he’ll be Minchin’s bitch. It will be end of any chance (otherwise quite good) that he will be prime-minister. Around 2013, Labor will be getting pretty stale, there’ll be leadership tension between Rudd and Gillard, and maybe, just maybe, the right wing lunatics will be purged from the Liberal party and they’ll look like a viable option. Hockey takes it now, he goes down in a shower of shit next year and someone else takes the Libs to the election in 2013 with a fighting chance of winning. Sheesh…
I meant brand new episodes featuring any number of parings.. I vote for Penny Wong vs Steve Fielding
Finns
Speers and I are making the same prediction. I’ve said all along that Turnbull (and the ETS) is dead.
Howie will have told Joe that he is the best chance to unite the party. Abbott and Turnbull can’t. Easily the best result in the short term for the Libs is to put in Hockey, delay the ETS (that’s the only thing Australians agree with them about) and buy themselves some time.
Still I have been wRONg before.
*Cough* Hsien Harper vs Gerry Georgatis *Cough*
Bob1234! Are you suggesting that the Greens would for the right price change the target back to the level that every country is aiming for.
The Hack
The OO is The Australian site
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/
and Newspoll normally is posted around 10.30 each alternate Monday. If it’s published tonight (no one as yet knows if it will) it might be earlier or later.
OO = Opposition Orifice
or something along those lines.
He needs his bit of cardboard and the sanctimonious pseudo science jammed up his… and I’m sure Penny would oblige…
I mean, isn’t it obvious? Labor wants to pass an ETS and get the credit, while the coalition kills itself over voting for it, and at the same time get insurance for future elections because both parties voted for it, rather than Labor “getting in to bed with the Greens and ruining Australia with the ETS tax”, as the coalition might attempt to put it.
As if Labor would allow that to happen just for higher targets. They care more for politics than good policy.
Do try to catch up, Bob!
You’re about eight days behind everyone else at the moment!
I’m stating that Labor weren’t prepared to negotiate with the Greens.
Speers: even a clock is right..
Yeah i hear you loud and clear Bob1234! but arethe Greens willing to accept that the ALP as a heartland to look after therefore need to ensure that these communities are brought along and not left behind ripe for some feral group to come along and gain support.
What are the Greens willing to give up?
Cheers
The Hack
Bernard Keene’s latest offering – commenting on MT
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/thestump/2009/11/29/reflections-on-turnbull-and-his-party/
Rudd, Julia, Swannie, Tanner, Roxon, etc, etc will be quaking in their boots with the potential new shadow front bench.
Ah yes, Howard, the expert in loyalty and unity. Just ask Peacock. And still has the political touch which lost him his own seat. Just the sort person that Hockey should take advice from.
I just had to add this extra iece from BK
Nailed them both.
At the moment, the Government versus the Greens is a non event. The Greens are irrelevant in the current debate because thay need both X and Fielding onside. They will come into play when they have the BoP – but it is good for padding out this thread to a possible 2500
It’s Time
You have to give it to Howie that he kept them united for 11 years.
The green movement (and the Greens/NDP/UTG who are intrinsically linked) has been arguing for decades what Labor is only suddenly realising. They put an ETS forth with a minimum 5% cut and a stack of Liberal concessions, and suddenly have the hive to attempt to take the mantle of environmentalists.
If it were any more rich the earth would be out of sugar cane.
It’s Time.
Perhaps there was somebody else in the house giving advice.
Exactly and the Greens an Fielding are never going to be on the same side when it comes to anything climate change related.
Why would the Government bother wasting time negotiating with the Greens when it cannot realistically lead to the bills being passed?
A leader who’s gone back on his principles and got into bed with the sceptics!
A deputy leader whose seat nominally belongs to the other side.
Abbott as shadow treasurer? Oh please, I must stop before I collapse in laughter!
yeah
having to face a lib menagerie that includes chemical ali,the three stooges, various inquisitors and the odd lunatic will do their heads in.
Rudd may go to a DD out of sheer compassion.
Who knows. The Greens wanted to negotiate but Labor didn’t.
Gusface.
A great summary of the available talent!
Yep, more advice on how to lose a seat and an election from a proven source. They’re a comedic double act.
Wasn’t Nick Minchin Howard’s “numbers man” ?
I keep being told that it’s because it would reduce the number of extra Senators needed from 7 to 2, be it from Xen/Fielding/coalition.
I must say I’m loving Turnball’s kamikaze approach! If you’re going down, you might as well take the rest of them with you!
How on earth can Hockey convince anyone that he can unite this lot? So the deal is he shelves the ETS, and then they come up with an alternative climate change policy, one that the right wing sceptics agree with?
It wouldn’t. It’s just a favourite red herring brought out here from time to time by the innumerate Green bashers.
I, for one, cannot wait for a Hockey-Dutton team.
Hockey! Hockey! Hockey! Oi! Oi! Oi!
Duuuuuuuuuuuuuu Ton…. Duuuuuuuuuuuuuu Ton…. Duuuuuuuuuuuu Ton
See you can even make Aussie chants from their names, how can they fail?
You’d assume that there’d be no place for Chainsaw in a Hockey/Dutton administration. I guess Macfarlane would go to the backbench, probably Brandis too!
So Hockey would have 3 vacancies to fill(counting Turnball having resigned). I’m guessing he’d be forced by Minchin to promote someone like Alex Hawke.
So with so many views on what the Greens and Labor should do in the Senate on an ETS, what exactly is the official Labor hack line now?
Howard wants a Joe Hockey but with Minchin pulling the strings. I think Hockey has enough brains to figure out that that might not be a good idea in the eyes of his own electorate.
Re Bernard Keanes article, a better comparison than the Third Reich, would be Turnbull as Churchill. Though John Howard carries Winston as his second name, it is Malcolm that should carry the name. Like Churchill, he is hopeless in peacetime but great in a war (ignoring Gallipoli of course).
What happens when it gets to February and Hockey asks the party then to pass the CPRS? The sceptics pull the same trick again and depose Hockey? This whole thing is insane.
Gusface, Has the term ‘three stooges’ been used in Oz politics before? If not it is a great line for Labor to use. We just need to work out which is which. I reckon it’s:
Moe = People Skills
Larry = Dutton
Curly = Sloppy
now who is Shemp?
ltep
Ths is why, after the election, when the Greens have the BOP the Govt will negotiate with them. The Libs are useless.
Probably more. Some other shadow cabinet members might actually support Turnbull’s ETS and resign on principle. And surely Mesmerelda would drop out after losing the Deputy Dawg collar.
Yeah, good luck to them with that one!
I have my doubts, but I do hope.
Looks like it was a waste of time putting up the excise on alcopops!
Swan will be happy though! Labor might get out of deficit easily by 2012 if they can keep this up!
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/schoolies-drunkest-ever-qld-police-says-20091128-jxih.html
Shemp = Minchn
I can see this boiling down to only one of two contests.
Turnbull vs Abbott is most likely
Turnbull vs Hockey but only in circumstances where Hockey changes his allegiance to the broad sweep of conservatives (not just deniers)
Who do you think would win in each case?
I think Turnbull would win narrowly over Abbott (purely because of overwhelming political considerations)
I think Hockey would be the slight favourite over Turnbull, but only if the deal being done is in favour of conservative policies but not if Hockey also shifts against the ETS, which is still very unlikely.
And a Hockey/Turnbull/Abbott 3 way is also possible.
Anything could happen in that one.
And howie is the “5th one”
Dump
Abbott won’t stand if Hockey stands
Could anyone make a worse deputy leader than Mesma?
Peter Dutton, come on down!
Shemp = Mirabella
The 5th Stooge was Curly Joe – and he was a bit rotund.
A Ménage à trois – oh the humanity
Hi Folks! Where’s my pal Glen? Weren’t you calling on the restructure of the centre-right for a while? You’re not a double agent, working from the inside are you?
Anyway, if Mal goes down, I wonder what his next move will be? Bankrolling his own “centrist” party? He’s got the resourses to do it and will have the motive. Come on Mal, surely you ain’t gonna let Minchin get away with it that easily? You could claim Menzies throne as the remaker of Australian non labour.
Crikey, on 10 News, Andrews said that “he’s” a candidate for the Leadership!
Where’s the popcorn?
The corn futures will be going sky high now! Get on shares in any mob that make popcorn!
There’s fortunes to be made here!
Glen’s off at schoolies on the Gold Coast.
Scorpio.
Surely Andrews is suffering from delusions of adequacy.
Channel 7 News says Hockey WILL challenge Turnball, Dutton was at his house today & they put the final touches on their “deal”. And yes, Hockey will agree to delay the ETS! And yes, Minchin is pulling the strings, as predicted.
Australia beat Dutch 7-2 in Championship Hockey today. Help please with a smarty pant comment.
i am still cant think straight with the devastating news of the Three Stooges. – Hockey, Dutton and Abbott.
Finns
Did they Bolt in?
BK, LOL!
Interesting to see whether Turnbull now direct his Senate troops to ram the bills through on Monday before the party room meeting.
Inner Shadow Cabinet activity
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jocRd-aajW0
Oh the irony – WTO protesters who are usually of the far left variety and if Australian vote Green, burn cars – great message if you are worried about reducing emissions.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2Lz37h0Bfg
This is the ETS we are going to get, the question is just one of timing; now, or after Copenhagen; passed with or without a DD. As Alan Kohler pointed out on ABC1 this morning, this scheme (or it’s fundamentals) were designed by Howard’s team who then went to work for Wong. This is ‘the’ bipartisan model, and it’s the one we’ll get sooner or later.
That the Minshiviks want to stand in the way is an internal argument about the Liberal party (or, what’s left of it since Howard got dumped by the electorate), and it’s using the resentments against Turnbull’s autocratic style to try and time travel back to some illusory past when conservatives actually stood for something. They just may succeed in rolling Turnbull (although no one should think that’s a certainty, it isn’t) but it’s like eating your seed corn in that it will burn whatever talent they have left in the party after Turnbull. If Hockey drinks from the poison chalice offered to him by the Minchiviks, he will not survive the next election. Who then? Kevin Andrews????
Watch for the “Punch & Judy” cartoons in the papers now!
Andrews?!?!?!
If he gets the job as Opp leader, then Bob Brown will be the opposition leader after the next election!
I’ve always had a bit of time for Joe, but it sounds like he’s about to sell out his beliefs for ambition
C’mon Joe, don’t be stupid….
BK, i can see Chainsaw left dangling by Sloppy
and a suitable song:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=45Xe9e0U2XE
Finns
And that would just about sum up the collective honour and integrty of the rabble.
I’m looking forward to Sloppy Joe trying to explain his sudden conversion to climate change scepticism!
The other problem with Hockey: overweight people don’t win elections, just ask Beazley.
evan14
Easy- he’s been with Howard, Abbott and Andrews and got religion!
Couple of good Guardian (UK) sites on the Countdown to Copenhagen
And a great alpha-order “jargon buster” Copenhagen climate conference glossary
And Top 10 green living myths
Great for using with the – has there been any advance on 90% yet – people who don’t understand the jargon etc
Remember that, “It’s stupid to set CRPS targets before the rest of the world does” aka “We Coalition RW Deniers don’t think Oz should ‘Lead the World’?” Well, here’s a starting point my Key Word search elicited, also from The Guardian: ‘Carbon pollution reduction scheme’
Hope it works. If not, just paste the key words into the usual ‘search’ box.
Then there are Carbon Trust Standards
Tesco becomes UK’s first retailer to display carbon footprint on milk complete with this gem:
Talk about the dumbed down nation, and it isn’t the UK!
And that’s in less than 10 mins on a single UK Newspaper site – and most of the time was taken up cutting, pasting and typing!
“Rudd’s trying to lead the rest of the World”, “He just wants to stroke his ego at Copenhagen.” Yeah. Right. Like he’s leading the world.
Not!
(Hope the links etc all work.)
Can someone explain to me how the hell Joe being Opp leader will help the Libs? Ijust can’t see how.
He sets himself as a massive target for flip flopping on climate change.
It seems as though logic has gone out the window for these guys.
We send him to Beijing Zoo as the reciprocal for Wang Wang and Funi.
They entered a world of pain and madness on 24 November 2007.
Sloppy looks like he belongs in a zoo!
Joe is not turnbull. Thus he is acceptable.
The chinese are far too smart to accept that.
I’m predicting Hockey will come up with something like: we’re sending the bill off to a senate committee to be scrutinised further, I’m committed to action on climate change etc.
It’ll all ring very hollow, but there you go LOL
The Bretheren are probably holding a prayer session with Sloppy and the Monk right at this moment!
He’s sure to win?
I wonder how Turnball bows out?
Resigns quietly?
Goes to the backbench?
Leaves politics immediately?
Accepts a job offer from Rudd?
Becomes an independent OR an ALP member?
And, it’s a huge slap in the face for Chainsaw from his party!
They obviously don’t think much of McFarlane’s negotiating skills! I guess he’s being punished for liking Penny Wong too much.
For now for something completely different …………….
7:30pm BBC Knowledge Channel: Did Darwin kill God?
Should that not be: Did Darwin kill Religion?
How can you kill something that dont exist.
Steve K
Posted Sunday, November 29, 2009 at 5:51 pm | Permalink
Gusface #2167
You’ve disrespected a great slapstick comedy team there Steve! Not even the Keystone Cops coule top Liberals over the last week!
evan14
Chainsaw cut loose for displaying competence under pressure.
Finns
Exactly right
evan14
How about resigns spectacularly?
“Their” ABC is running an interesting headline on the News front page right now.
Another rate blow
Anyone scanning the headlines could be excused for taking from that, that rates HAVE gone up – again!
But reading the ‘fine print’, it HAS NOT HAPPENED. So it isn’t NEWS. It’s just speculation.
Why is speculation being written up with a headline that makes it sound like reporting after the fact?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/
I have to wonder how many embarrassing gaffes Hockey will make before the next election… this comes from the person who did the following:
I’m going to predict: Turnball leave politics immediately, forces a byelection in Wentworth, then gets hired by Rudd.
McFarlane resigns from the Coalition and becomes an independent.
Maybe Shrek could pinch some of Andrews’ ideas! Hat tip to Bob from earlier!
http://www.australia.to/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=16878:meet-the-press-kevin-andrews-christine-milne&catid=157:just-in&Itemid=310
Poor Joe, it wasn’t very long ago that he was adamant that the only job he wanted was Wayne Swan’s.
Now the only job he will have is removing the knives from his and others backs.
But Minchin’s promised he’ll toe the line, hasn’t he?
Dont be surprised if Turnbull starts his own break away Liberal Party. he has enough money to do that. The New Liberal Party.
BB, Yep, just as Minchin promised that he would see the CPRS agreement through the senate
Just as Hockey promised Turnbull he has his full support.
I doubt he will just exit stage right.
If Malcolm gets rolled, he will quit but he won’t go quietly into the night
[ Ch 7 reporting Hockey will definitely challenge but the Hockey camp says "no, it's wrong".
Only the Finns can declare whether something is wRONg.
Evan
How about this, Malcolm does a tell all presser or interview exposing all the dirty deals and dirty trick and lies that the libs have hidden under the bed
Channel 9 news shows Peter Dutton pulling in behind Hockey’s car in his Hunter’s Hill home. What a carefully stage managed arrival calculated to send clear message to Turnbull that he is *stufft* and in the most public and humiliating way. These people have no honour, loyalty or an ounce of decency between them. I wonder where they’re going to find the money when they’ve killed the rainmaker. Can’t see many people paying out to sit next to Hockey/Dutton/Abbott. Not exactly star power material.
Does anyone think there is any other explanation for Hockey meeting with Dutton, than they are going to challenge? Like, look you’re a lovely chap and all, Peter, but you can’t be serious.
Seriously, Rudd, Guillard and Swan will be picking bits of Hockey, Dutton and Abbott out of their teeth after breakfast tomorrow.
It’s 4 standard deviations beyond the ordinary stupidity one expects of a party in disarray after defeat.
This is genuine, 24 carat, never to be repeated and absolutely rivetting imbecility of a once in a life time chance, if true.
Remember when Sloppy responded to charges of fear mongering in the election by declaring that “Our fear campaign is based on fact!” More please Joe.
vera, I’ve thought that myself. He’ll have the pictures and especially the emails to back it up.
The longer Sloppy delays his announcement of “to be or not to be”, the more sneaky & slimey he will appear.
Vera, I don’t think Malcolm will bring out the skeletons from the cupboard but he will most certainly be handing out personality profiles IMO
vera, if Turnbull did that, they might just invoke the ghost of Packer and get themselves a hit man. They are playing for who controls the Libs., which when you think about it, is very funny, as they’re such rugged individualists, doncha know.
Turnbull unplugged definitely lives up to his reputation of being risky, brilliant and a force of nature. He’s like the girl with the curl in the middle of her forehead – when he’s good he’s very, very good but when he’s bad he’s horrid. IMO he’s being very, very, very good at the moment. I’m almost feeling a bit Stockholm Syndromey myself.
Dutton was assistant treasurer under the hammock, if he is deputy dawg (and get to choose his portfolio) why would Abbott be considered as shadow Swan?
I reckon something else is happening, what? I haven’t a clue.
All I can think of is Hockey is saying NO so the nutters have sent Dutton around to win him over.
If there’s one thing that comes out of the recent occurrences it’s the illustration of the levels of honesty, honour, discipline and integrity possessed by the Libs.
Very well put.
Hockey is too gutless (well not literaly
) to challenge and is hoping like heck that the heavies will force a resignation out of Malcolm by the time the spill is on on Tuesday (good luck with that!)
He and Dutton are getting their team ready for when there is a vote after this happens IMO.
Baby sitting duties perhaps?
The Finnigans #2211
If God were a rational entity, and created man as his highest achievement, The glory, jest and riddle of the worldhow could rigorous research and rational deductions based on it kill God rather than enhance God? If God did create everything, how much more sophisticated and brilliant is the design Dawin’s revealed? (Both ‘good old talking – yeah, OK, stirring points’ – from the 1950-60s)
Did Chas D kill religion? Sadly, no. Religion describes a system of belief and faith, their propagation and those who control it. Depending on the society, good or bad enough when phenomena (The Deluge, the Garden of Eden, Exodus, Oedipus, The Wasteland myths) could not be explained within rational frameworks; but when they can …?
There will always be religion in some form or other. Some people like certainty; they like an external source to guide and explain their lives; they want to believe in an eternal reward system; they want some way of explaining away their pain when a loved one dies, and the promise of reunion in a heavenly life to come.
Had a few interesting “I wish I believed in religion/ heaven/ an afterlife” conversations with OH, siblings, other ‘lations when our parents, other siblings and ‘lations died. Our species & Neanderthals haven’t wanted to face final removal from & extinction of loved ones for many tens of thousands of years. I understood how Matthew Arnold – and Darwin, and his athiestic, emancipist, republic maternal grandfather (Josiah Wedgwood) – felt.
Gawd, this is too deep & meaningful for what’s been a blazing hot, humid, enervating, yet more dust blown in the westerlies day. Nice to know the climate’s cooling, Bolta; but I don’t think too many people are convinced!
Finns, I reckon the crowning piece this evening would be as Joe and Peter finish their momentous announcement of their jewel like Liberal credentials to lead the Party back to their rightful place governing, that Mrs Joe leaps on stage and whacks him over the noggin with a No.1 iron, which it is said, even God can’t play.
Turnbull will not simply take his bat and ball home and disappear quietly. It is not in his character and track records. He will fight on, just ask Kerry Packer, and these donkeys are underestimated him.
Hmm,
We may be witnessing the biggest double bluff in Australia’s political history. Hockey has drawn attention to himself with his little drive about Sydney, spoken to Yoda and now met with Dutton.
Yet he has pledged support to Turnbull, supports the policies that are causing the schism and his personal situation (3 children under 5) would preclude any sensible person taking on the hardest gig in Auistralian politics (Leader of the Opposition). Plus, he’d be on a hiding to nothing as Rudd and co shred his reputation. Hockey is 44. He can afford to sit this dance out.
Vera,
funny you should mention the ‘Hockey, Joe’ avoirdupois because it is the elephant in the room. He is too fat to hold high office. Imagine him at APEC in the costumes. And before I get branded an intolerant, it is on the public record as being an issue. Abbott recounted that Joe had used his considerable weight to tackle him in a rugby game at university – literally landed on top of Abbott – and Abbott punched Hockey and Joe says he couldn’t see for a couple of days. I think that anecdote says it all really.
He’d have to out himself in that case:think “Godwin Grech”. Even Little Malco isn’t that silly.
Karen Middleton on SBS news saying (honestly) that they don’t know what the situation is between Hockey, Turnbull and Abbott. Looks like we are all just guessing till Monday morning. Turnbull is still stuffed in the long term though. Coalition figures resented Turnbul’s remarks this morning. Curious that they don’t see the pposite problem with their own remarsk on Thursday/ Friday.
Socrates,
Newspoll may be critical to the final outcome. I hope it’s not a rogue!
And they hope to scare Turnbull by having the media run with it as a done deal. What do you know, the media obliged.
New Age poll out, folks.
Should Mal step aside for Joe? http://www.theage.com.au/polls/form.html
Currently 21% Yes; 79% No (312 votes)
The only two things we can be certain of are:
The majority of the Liberal Party supported passing the amended CPRS (from Somlyay’s notes).
The leadership spill motion failed.
One more thing:
The Libs are a joke
OK, I’ll say it
I think Turnbull picked the wrong party to join.
And, Dario, that Rudd, his colleagues, voters etc would have to bite a truck-load of sour lemons to get the grins off their faces!
ABC news Sydney had the Hockey-Dutton as just about a done-deal
I suspect the ALP heavies to whom Turnbull spoke indicated that they already had plenty of patient talent, and he wasn’t a big enough sweetener to parachute him into a leadership role anytime soon.
Age Poll now 18% Yes; 82% No (3033 votes) OzPol. I tried to vote twice (oops) but was told I had already voted. I thought these things could be rigged?
Can anyone recall how Dutton is supposed to have voted on Tuesday? Did he support the Minchinites?
Turnbull would be trouble in labor
Clear your cookies.
Allan, I think there’s been far less than 3,000 votes lodged.
Finns,
Ah technology. You can be dishonest in so many more sophisticated ways.
O.K., if Hockey, Dutton and Abbott do successfully challenge, I reckon Turnbull would be outta there and forming his own party. There’s no way back from the position he painted Hockey into today.
On Latika Bourke’s twitter
Yep – let’s see it Joe. Your big smile won’t win you an election without anything behind it.
BTW guys – I’m having a heap of trouble keeping up with reading your posts from Saturday and today – you sure type fast!!
You’re probably right Steve but that was the figure resulting when I voted. Mind you my solitary vote seemed to push it from the %’s given by Ozpol to the newer figure, so I guess it’s all crap. No scrutineers, obviously. LOL
It’s been done before: think “Don Chipp”, “Australian Democrats”
GG, yes, forgive me Padre, i have sinned.
Got that bit right at least HSO
Meanwhile, back on the Real World stage; the real reason Lib RWers want to roll the CRPS:
Rudd plays careful hand at CHOGM
BB
You are probably right about Malcolm not spilling his guts as he would be hurt too but what if the ADF Gretch inquiry is released after Joe becomes leader and Malcolm bears the brunt of it.
He’d allready be in the poo so implicating Joe (who made a phone call to Gretch the day the feds raided his house) would be a good way of getting a bit of revenge and rocking the new Lib leader. Just a thought
Bushfire
I rather think that Turnbull’s psyche would much prefer a Menzies-UAP analogy
Bad Day LWers want to block the rollout
BH, i will be in trouble form tomorrow. i will be doing my civic duty and they told me it will be for a month.
Finns,
Are you judge, jury or the charged?
Re 2276 Still wrong!
GG
I think finns is all three
Vera
Isnt the next step on Grech not an AFP inquiry “report”, but rather a decision as to whether the DPP will lay charges?
Gus,
The three illegals?
Anyone hear anything about the LNP conference on this weekend? Was the CPRS discussed? Hard to believe it wasn’t.
GG, Scarpat posted:
Scarpat is very wise.
Laocoon
I dunno, the senate report was last week and I know there are still results of other enquires but don’t know what ones they are?
Oz,
Earlier post said the LNP voted 3000-0 against.
Finns – there are excuses you can use and I think I’ve heard most of them!! But good on you for doing it.
We’re both in strife – my big volunteer days are Mon/Tues so I’ll miss most of the fun through the days as well. Hope the Senate is still going Monday night.
Rightio, BB and Winston, haven’t been able to catch up with all that others are thinkin’ and postin’, here.
He’s got buckets of money, so that wouldn’t stop him. Form a party that bleeds the moderates, much like Don Chipp as you say BB.
Would leave Minchin and his minchivics up the proverbial stream of far right effluent in a canoe named sloppy joe, peddling for dear life with a failed ecclesiastical warrior armed with a man checking to see if he has a seat.
Stuff of dreams.
Harry
If malcolm started a new party one thing is for sure, it would have more funds in it’s election coffers than the Liberal Party
Crazy Colin on the Libs imploding.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/29/2756591.htm
Re my post at 2269. Big red face here. When I voted for the second time – in error of course – the page came up giving the chart results of the previous poll, which related to gay marriage. I just saw the figures and not the topic. I really should get over my vanity and wear my specs! Apologies all round, folks.
BH, i need the money. i heard they pay well. This GFC has hit us very hard. As Steve McQueen was saying in the Magnificent 7:
“Money none, family none, prospect none and Super none”
I assume they endorsed the leader’s position of opposition the CPRS.
But, you never know with Libs these days.
You’re not wRONg, vera.
Good luck with the civic duty, Finns, can be confronting.
“Ad only the farmers won in the end ” – just like with the CPRS
Peter Martin’s take on Joe Hockey in case it hasn’t been linked earlier
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2009/11/two-of-likely-candidates-tuesday-are.html
Probably just based on him showing up at his house…
Oz it was discussed “behind closed doors”.
For that he has to wait until the mad right gets trounced in an election. If Hockey is stupid enough I bet he waits.
Catch you later, bludgers, for more political comedy than I thought possible.
But a darn good insight, Finns, and yes they do pay pretty well. Of course the coffee’s b… awful but you’ll survive.
The plot thickens.
Frank
Off to Perth to see Mesma?
No, I don’t thonk so.
No. It was blunt – Ferk Off.
They never trusted him. He would always have just wanted to be the boss and labor
wouldn’t wear it for a second, The libs did and the rest is a matter of very public record.
Remember turnbull tried this during the keating ascendancy years – early 1990′s.
Vera
On Grech, I dont really know AFP procedure, but I would think it unusual for AFP to issue a report on an allegation of criminal activity; rather, it would be off to a magistrate…
http://aph.gov.au/Senate/committee/priv_ctte/report_142/c06.htm
AFP, I assume, still has purpose, rather than what proved to be the toothless Senate Privelages’ Committee role of producing whitewash reports
[RT: @aaronmagner: Joe Hockey and Peter Dutton sighted at Sydney airport lounge together 20 minutes ago... #spill 2 minutes ago from Echofon)
Maybe he needs someone to carry his luggage!
Funny… I getting :” ‘The Age’ Should Malcolm step aside: Yes 22%, No 78%” – from 444 votes.
Rudd might be glad he’s OS
All of this talk about the Three Stooges is all well and good, but I’d be very careful about lining someone up with Curly. He had a few issues with the young’ens, as I understand it…
How many other MPs are flying to Canberra tonight? Most of them probably.
Fleeing the country. Turnbull made them an offer they couldnt refuse.
Laocoon
Thanks for that, I’ve lost track of where things are at re Gretch.
So tomorrow the Government should move a motion in the House demanding that the Liberal party keep its promise to pass the amended CPRS.
They should then invite Turnbull to make his reply from the Government side so he can more comfortably yell at his party without hurting his neck.
“I’m going to predict: Turnball leave politics immediately, forces a byelection in Wentworth, then gets hired by Rudd.
McFarlane resigns from the Coalition and becomes an independent”
1) Possible, bordering on probable
2) Improbable. Might be a decent bloke but he is a WELDED on Liberal. A bit like Bob1234…
ruawake
.
This is the party of the bloke who’s suing Anna Bligh for saying he bought a party. How many squillion does Big King Coal expect to make from king coal?
Maybe Sloppy was delivering “meals on wheels” to Howies place…….seeing Hyacinth doesn’t have “staff” anymore.
On THEIR abc news -
Gordon Brown shaking hands shaking hands with Saint Kevin and saying to him “the next President of the Commonwealth”….
Finns, Julie’s got her bag and is going too!
http://images.theage.com.au/2009/02/18/386734/svSPOONER_FEB18-420×0.jpg
vera
Her bag’s been packed for a long time
OO’s poll – should Malcolm T resign. 41.98% Yes 58.02% No. 14,485 voted.
I agree except for teh gets hired by Rudd part. He will probably go back to merchant banking.
Well if Hockey becomes leader I wonder what happens to MacFarlane? Will he be kicked off the front bench for negotiating the deal?
Are there any state or territory leaders who are CC deniers? Is there a leader of any western nation that is a CC denier?
The Liberal party have NO HOPE of ever forming government if they refuse to admit that CC is real and requires urgent action.
As a child I used to hope like hell at the day of reckoning for something I didn’t want to do might not come around. I’d stick my head in the sand and hope that no one would notice. Of course that day always dawned and I had to deal with whatever the issue was.
As I grew older I realised that it is far better to work and prepare for that day so that I could give it my best shot.
I think the Liberals will leave Canberra this week and hope like hell that their day of reckoning might not come around. They lack the maturity to deal with CC and will be punished severely at the election.
To delay is to deny*
* Malcolm Turnbull, Insiders, Nov 29, 2009
BK, yep and this time she’ll be picking it up and moving backwards i think
Dutton flew from Brisbane to Sydney and had a few hours to kill before his flight to Canberra, so he decided to drop in on his avuncular mate Joe. (Informing the media beforehand ’cause Joe got such good press when he visited Howie).
BH that OO poll is the same as the 2PP has been since the last election.
A Good Lurk @ 2308. See my post @ 2292 for apology re the mix-up on the figures Yours are correct.
Exactly! Which is what makes the Liberal fiasco so hilarious, Turnbull is right and is actually trying to help, but the wackaloons won’t have a bar of being placed in a better electoral position.
Thanks Allan: no worries.
Andrew Robb puts up his hand, saying, “I’ve made a miraculous recovery. Now can I have my old job back?”
But ShowsOn, as I asked before. Is there any sign that the Liberal Party members themselves have stopped to do the math? Surely they have expert number crunchers in there somewhere…
Hadn’t thought about that Vera, but you’re right.
Have we all realised that if HoJoe is the front man for the Oppn the real leadership will now be shared between Minchin and HOWARD!! They must be mad.
So Clive Palmer may now have to front up with the money for Qld and the rest of Oz for the Libs because business is surely going to be mad with the rabble.
I am not finding it at all hilarious, but other than that I agree entirely with this comment.
The math is simple, the Liberal party can’t win elections simply by appealing to the idiots in the Liberal party.
Cuppa, i am feeling depressed now.
Shows On,
At time, I like the subtle nuances in your punditry.
By the time the Liberals win the next election they will have almost identical climate change policies as Labor. Turnbull is saying to his colleagues that the Liberal party should reach that bipartisan consensus in its first term of opposition rather than the 4th or 5th.
There are lots of true colours going up the mast at the moment
Yes, but are *they* giving that serious thought?
Turnbull is trying to drag the Libs back towards the centre, the reactionaries are just playing to the rusted-ons. Nobody, apart from Turnbull, appears to be doing the maths
Scarpat
They are more concerned about factions than fractions
If Hockey does challenge Turnbull and renegs on the ETS deal, I can’t wait for the cartoons of Joe sitting on Abbott’s lap with Tony’s hand stuck up his back ventriloquist dummy style.
As amusing as this all is, I’m a trifle scared about allowing the likes of Minchin to run riot. You saw his utterly unprincipled behaviour over the NBN. Now watch him go mad with opposition for oppositions sake.
I’ll take that as a compliment.
Who knows what they are thinking. Mumble thinks a scare campaign against the ETS will only work once it is actually operational. Maybe the Liberal loonies fear that they won’t be able to run that campaign if they voted for the CPRS in the first place?
I cannot think of any reason why Dutton is being mentioned in relation to the Lib leadership.
Its not like he has a swag of followers whose votes he could shift, in fact his running for Dept. Dawg would move Bishop’s vote elsewhere.
He spent yesterday chatting to Sen Brandis, maybe he is his envoy (in the warren zevon sense) ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0ZVFOkx2fc
Scar, one hopes that Hockey has woken up and done the maths. If he has, he’ll realise its suicide in his own seat to do any deal with Minchin.
BK,
More like fictions than frictions!
Allan Moyes you are reading the wrong poll
the poll count for the
The odd thing is that given Turnbull’s rep as a risk taker, his position on the ETS was actually the smart play… but too many of the Libs I think are emboldened by thoughts of a 1993 redux…
SNIP: See article 2 of comment moderation guidelines – The Management.
And the reactionaries seem to be saying that they have no problems with a moderate leading the party, just as long as that moderate doesn’t ever dare take on the reactionaries.
Turnbull has turned out to be too determined for them, so they are going to get rid of him and install Hockey, a guy who they think will be more malleable.
Nice one, BK
I really don’t see being able to run a scare campaign over the ETS, or the possibility of an ETS as being motive enough for what they are doing. There’s clearly those who are loony-denialists, but I suspect a greater number just want to go back to their far Right ideology, bring back WorkChoices etc. If so, you’d have to argue that lots of them would rather run a scare campaign over debt.
As I said before, it doesn’t make sense for the non-lunatic-deniers but nevertheless hardcore right wingers to be making their move right now.
Or one hopes that his wife has. If he takes the position, even if manages to hold onto his seat, he will be gone as Liberal leader after the election.
If Minchin had the courage of his unbudgeable convictions, surely he would run for the leadership himself.
The Trogs are thinking 1993 when Keating destroyed the GST. Their thinking is that they can win an election by opposing the CPRS. This was the meme trotted out on Insiders this morning.
They are clinically insane.
Cuppa, he is in the Senate. He would have to move to the House of Reps however I think he much prefers playing the power behind the throne.
I’m in moderation!!!
I was very sure that Hockey wouldn’t challenge. I got very angry and had to let it rip. I want Turnbull to prevail so Australia can go to Copenhagen with an ETS to encourage a fast track agreement.
Quite apart from the ETS, if Minchin, Abetz & Co get emboldened by this exercise, the rest of the Labor legislative programme may be at greater risk of an obstructionist Senate
Clearing the decks as at June 10, as opposed to waiting for a half election change as at June 11, might become more appealing
GG, I agree. One can’t run a scare campaign against Global Warming as one can against a tax. Suppose that’s why Barnaby is tryng to do so by refering to the CPRS as the Green Tax
There is technically no reason an Opposition Leader or Prime Minister could not be a senator, but I suppose that’s beyond the point!
I think the Liberals could actually do reasonably well campaigning against the ETS. Run a line like “Labor’s new tax grab hits families and businesses but does nothing to help the environment”. Given that the bulk of voters would have no idea how an ETS actually works, and given that it feeds into a belief many people I think hold that Labour is the party of higher taxes, this could be an effective strategy. It would certainly energise the Liberal’s base. The hard part would be saying what their own policy is!
On this topic, wear it as a badge of honour.
and Howard’s stuck up Abbott’s arse. Howard might be preparing to run in Wentworth himself.
Can an opposition leader be in the senate?
A prime minister can be from the senate (in theory – I think), so why can’t an opposition leader? I could be completely wrong, apologies if I am.
Wasn’t Gorton in the senate when he was elected by the party? Did he have to move to the HoR or did he choose to?
It is just that the main game is played in the House of Reps
VM1 – and so say many of us. The mantra that the Libs are not going to give RUDD a good look at Copenhagen is so childish. It’s like a kindy kid playing nasty because he/she hasn’t got the best toy.
sireggo,
Gorton took Holt’s seat due to a sudden vacancy.
1) Technically yes, politically maybe no.
2) Yes, Gorton was a Prime Minister and senator briefly before he resigned to move to the House of Representatives. There’s no requirement for the PM to be a member of the House of Representatives as there’s no explicit mention of the PM in the Constitution.
However, politically it’s far easier to have both leaders of the major parties in the same chamber. Makes better video tape for the news.
I know that Gorton took Holt’s seat, but could he have stayed in the senate if he wanted to and still be PM?
The theatre is in the House of Reps. The Senate is where all the real work gets done.
Thanks for the answers people
I can’t see them getting anywhere with Hockey as leader. The extent of his abilities as a politician is that he’s a jolly, likeable type. He’s not a natural fit for the leadership at all. That they would even consider him, let alone be pleading for him to take over, just shows what a dearth of talent they’ve got.
The problem with that is they have already shown their hands as skeptics and deniers, so it would be very easy for government to always turn the debate back to that point
Given the Liberals are likely to run a scare campaign on the ETS (heck, they ALWAYS run a scare campaign on something) Mr Rudd should call a DD election (if handed the trigger) for the midst of a stinking hot summer. With climate change / global warming the centrepiece issue, the Scary Party might find the repercussions of fear turned back on their miserable selves.
Footage of Howard saying that Labor’s ETS policy is much like his own would also help show up the hypocrites.
ltep, or blocked. If the main game on number really was in the Senate then Minchin would be PM
That too
Yes, please Libs, run that line.
Rudd flew out of Australia with an agreemnet in his pocket. I seriously doubt if anyone is going to challenge him on his credentials on the world stage. Already he’s leading the CHOGM group and about to embark on a major diplomatic effort at Copenhagen.
The Libs playing silly games back home just further exposes their intellectual vacuity, small time politicing and steadfast determination to send themselves to the dustbin of Australian politics.
Rudd is the huge winner out of this week.
Well, they have a habit of making some over rated person deputy – Dutton, Bishop, Costello would be a hatrick.
And Malcolm would pay for the ads
He could swap with Andrew Southcott for Boothby.
But Labor would be able to run a great campaign against him, so he would probably lose the seat.
It’s much more comfy with the #1 spot on the Senate ticket.
My Liberal-voting sister, who lives in Higgins, has posted a sad little Facebook message: “Come back Peter…”
Youse with long memories and an understanding of the Peloponnesian War would remember I have always said Turnbull is Alcibiades reincarnated.
I can’t believe their talking about Dutton for deputy
Has he actually won preselection for a seat yet? Is it in his own doubtful seat?
Having your deputy lose at an election is not a good look (as opposed to losing your leader which is what happened last time.)
A much better swap would be with Pat Secker in Barker, a seat even the current Libs couldn’t lose.
Dear me, what if he desecrates my herm?
The question is this: is there a deep-seated resentment out there, a smouldering anger at Labor that can be tapped by the right combination of words and personalities in the Opposition leadership?
This has been the theory of so many in the media (Milne, Shanahan for a while), politicians (Abbott calling Rudd the “The Phoney” because he stole Abbot’s religion franchise) and all the rest of the “Honeymoon Is Overers”.
Is there a silent majority that is just waiting to react – as they reacted so nastily and in large numbers in 2001 to the Asylum Seeker episode – against doing something to combat climate Change: the CPRS?
It seems to me that this is what the Minchkins are banking on. The polling evidence so far says no, and the prospect of Uncle Joe being elected Leader doesn’t advance the prospect much, but nevertheless is there some kind of magic formula that can unleash the dogs?
Who is Thucydides? Gerard Henderson?
In his dreams.
Laurie Oakes had another take: Turnbull as Saint Sebastian.
Sebastian was a Christian member of the Praetorian Guard in the imperial palace of the Roman Empire.
On the instructions of Emperor Diocletian he was tied to a tree while a phalanx of archers launched a hail of arrows at him.
It was said that his body was so riddled with quills that he looked more like a porcupine than a man.
Miraculously, though, Sebastian survived and was nursed back to health – whereupon Diocletian had him beaten to death and thrown into a sewer.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/general-malcolm-turnbull-has-no-troopers/story-e6frfhqf-1225804740641
I thought it was Glenn Milnedides.
You mean he was thrown back into the Liberal party room!
No. They have far too much lead in their saddle bags.
They are ferked and far from home.
BB at 2387-if I was planning Liberal strategy, I’d push the “Labor’s tax grab” line about the ETS. Go for the hip-pocket nerve! Everyone wants to help the environment………as long as they don’t have to pay for it. I don’t think that line of attack changes the game or wins an election, but it might bite enough to claw back a few votes.
But once the ETS is implemented, that line of attack is gone. It will be just like the GSt-who ever thinks about the GST now?
Does anyone see parallels between the Lib’s woahs and the plight of moderate Republicans in the U.S.?
Republican Senators Lindsay Graham and Lamar Alexander have been attacked by their Republican base for daring to cooperate with Democrats on Kerry-Boxer Senate climate bill (20% cut on 2005 levels by 2020). They have said they will vote for it if it includes sufficient support for nuclear power.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/29/us/politics/29senators.html?_r=1&src=twt&twt=nytimes
Graham’s critics are like caricatures of Republican wackaloonery:
Which brings to mind this great article from The Onion:
http://www.theonion.com/content/news/area_man_passionate_defender_of
BB
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cn-F24i0uDQ
I think we can figure out Julie Bishop…
The only reason I can see for Hockey running as leader is that he really thinks he can heal the split in the Liberal Party.
If he thinks he can he is seriously deranged.
The Liberal leadership has been an issue every six months for almost 6 years. It is not going to stop any time soon.
From Sam Maiden. Just when you thought the farce couldn’t get any worse.
How come we’ve had 2400 posts and NOTHING has happened?
He’s banking on getting back in on Greens preferences after helping the Greens knock Labor’s pitiful ETS off, the Greens will be obliged to return the favour and preference Dutton!
Tell that to the over 1 million households who already pay higher electricity bills by opting for “Green Options”.
Well she is from the west…
WOW! So he is campaigning on Peter Debnam’s platform.
That worked really well in the past.
Btw was Abbott having his Peter Denman moment in his bright red cossie at Manly Beach today.
I don’t know about that!
We wore Bob out! He has had to go and have a good lie down!
I’d rather forget the red speedos!
Reminds me of when Piers accidentally flashed his tummy on Insiders once. Stomach churning.
So glad I never saw that, but even hearing about it makes me ill…
Did I read Tony Abbott and “red budgie smugglers” in the same sentence?!?!?!
I think I’m going to be sick
I kinda want a Newspoll tonight so we don’t have to hear about them tomorrow!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/29/2756620.htm?section=justin
So Ch7 were wRONg how unusual.
While on The Onion … If you haven’t seen it already, take a look at this piece they published when George W won the presidency.
At the time I thought it was funny. But with hindsight it’s just demoralising that the stupidity of the neocons was that transparent … but they still won … two terms.
http://www.theonion.com/content/node/28784
And a biscuit
Yeah. It started the Save the Whale movement. He was last seen being dragged out to sea..
And Speers, AGAIN
Ruawake at 2400. 1 million households ticking the “green power” option is a lot, but what % of the total number of power bills does 1 million represent? 10% maybe? I don’t know the answer, but I doubt it’s a high percentage.
It would be very interesting to know what demographic ticks that “green power” box. I suspect it’s mainly inner-city electorates. Is there any data on that?
Cheers
The battle between the wets and drys in the Liberal Party has been going on since the Fraser years and most probably before that!
Bit like the Korean war actually! This is just situation normal with a decent cross border stoush going on but using live ammunition!
How many Liberal leadership contenders were at Manly beach today???
BTW
Dutton.hockey bizzo
I am reliable informed they bunk together in canberra
But dont expect the MSM/journosphere to know that
Time wasting timewasters
gus,
It is times like these when you realise how much the professional MSM don’t know.
Must be a BIG bunk, Gus
Scarpat
I report, you decide
If it’s a double I’d want Sloppy on the bottom bunk. If that tonne of lard fell on you it’d be good night nurse.
9 news showed Peter Garrett firing the starters pistol for a surf race at Coogee, heaps of people and no budgee smugglers for Pete
Hope he didn’t wound a seagull Vera – he’d be an emotional wreck.
Gus, action replay for Howie-Cossssie last love-in before the Ruddslide massacre.
Global warming plus a tectonic plate shift. How much more can the planet take?
It is times like these that I am glad I spent many a day in toytown.
We need an online voting mechanism here to be able to record everyone’s predictions. They must be available. Something like the football tipping software would do.
On the daily double, I’m betting
Hockey for leader
ETS not passing
Crikey, how would you like to be on the bottom bunk with Hockey on the top one?
Dutton wouldn’t be able to sleep!
Every tiny creak and grown would have him thinking he was about to meet his maker if the top bunk crashed down onto him!
Diog, not satisfy as the resident of the PB wRONg Hall of Fame?
Diogs,
So both those predictions can be immediately discounted.
Gold
Re Dutton, I believe the plan is that Alex Somlyay be gently euthanased and Dutton installed as member for Fairfax, a safeish seat on the Sunshine Coast. Of course the yokels of Coolum may not like Dutton any more than the yokels of Currumbin did.
Trebble for me!
Turnbull to prevail!
ETS to pass Tuesday!
Bolt to be hospitalised with a breakdown Wednesday!
Where’s Glen? He always gets so indignant when we crack the Sloppy Joe funnies it makes me LOL
Psephos,
Somlyay is on Turnbull’s side.
My Quaddie
Ditto
dutton to have sheepish look and long glances at joe
Amigos
I’m on a roll!
Rann to deny affair BEFORE presser, Chantelois to request lie detector and Eamonn Sullivan to win Celebrity MasterChef after one episode.
I just need to stay away from you “coolers” for the money to keep rolling in.
scorpio 2432
I wish I were that confident.
Hockey to win and the ETS to be left in the too hard basket.
Ok I ve lost count on how many times Speers has been wrong on Sky. There was a tally being kept here. I need an update!!
And I’ll be glad when this circus is over. There are too many posts to get through!!
My quinnie
Mesma stumbles out of the bush saying, “Did I miss anything while I was gone?”
Andrew, This circus ain’t leaving town any time soon.
scorps
If the first two happen, the third is a given.
I only just read The Australian editorial from yesterday. It is amazingly Pro-Turnbull. It even gives Howard a bit of a backhander:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/liberals-in-red-hot-trouble-on-climate/story-e6frg71x-1225804745883
It basically says the nutcase faction was wrong to challenge Turnbull, and that Hockey will be forever tainted by changing his mind on the CPRS if he takes the leadership.
I dont know that weight jibes are essential at this point. Plenty else to make fun of
Been imaging Sloppy Joe as Beached Uz Laocoon?
Diogs,
You make so many conflicting predictions that no one can count on anything you say.
The only thing now properly established is your prediliction for smut and gossip.
There are over 8 million households I believe, so it would be a bit over 10%
If Hockey can’t decide this week whether to pass or block the ETS it will destroy his leadership.
extraordinary!
C’mon Dio. We have had the gossip, now how about some smut
Thanks Muskiemp @ 2348 (gosh this blog moves so quickly you go off to watch Joanna Lumley explore Norway on ABC TV and pages have gone by!). I realised that and apologised for it at my post @ 2292. As I said – I should wear my specs more!
And it’s a shame GP isn’t allowed to post at the moment!
He’d be an absolute hoot with all this going on!
If you’re lurking, hi GP! Good fun eh?
GG
Two mistakes in two years!! (I’m not counting those horse-racing tips)
ShowsOn and Steve, it is an amazing read. Trashes howard legacy in a few paragraphs
Can someone find me a link to the video, or the text of what Turnbull said earlier (the one where he lets loose on Minchin)?
Diogs
I’m with you. Hockey will be forced to play his hand and take the leadership.
ETS will be talkedout without a vote or go to commitee.
Don’t be too hard on him, he’s had a few impressive rIGHt ones even if there’ve been plenty of wRONgs
Diogs,
What can one say to a patient who continues to kid himself? Don’t be a goat!
Dio,
He might be able to share a ward with Mr Grech! They’ll be able to swap ideas on where it all went so horribly wRONg!
GG
Funnily enough, I just asked for a goat from WorldVision for Xmas.
We know Joe ain’t too clever but how big is his ego?’?
If the whackaloons were to give it a good stroking, like telling Joe that he was the way more popular one on Sunrise and in a PPM contest he’d leave Rudd for dead, would Big Joe fall for the flattery and challenge Malcolm?
Diogs,
An arranged marriage. How original of you.
http://today.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=977386
This is just the first mention of Minchin:
Any murmurs on an early newspoll. Would love to see Turnbull’s ratings up to trult throw the cat amongst the pigeons
Good on you! We’re going for a little piggy
Cud,
Try this! It will be on sooner rather than later! Sometime anyway!
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/oakes
When dios is good he is very good but when his bad he is really baaa….d
Andrew, The editorial uses (without referencing Murdoch) that wonderful line “… the planet must be given the benefit of the doubt.” Turnbull used it on Thursday evening and Rudd will use it through to the election and beyond.
I despise Murdoch for many things but his authorship of that simple line deserves credit. It’s a killer.
Er excuse me.
Can anyone tell me when the next Newspoll is expected?
Thank you.
fredex,
If it is coming tonight, then we’ll get an inkling in the next hour.
First used, I think, by the father of the Green Revolution, Norman Borlaug, who died on the 13th september, at age 95.
Yes Steve, Turnbull is smart to use Murdoch’s words. I wonder though whether he should have gone in as hard on Minchin, Abbott and Hockey. Is it sheer desparation?? Wont it just alienate more MPs???
fredex,
If it’s not up on the Oz’s web site around 11-00pm tonight I’ll be very surprised!
But I may be wrong! I have been known to be wrong, even when I am right!
Just saw a replay of Minchin giving a presser on Sky News. I don’t know what time it was taken, but Minchin sounded confident and at ease. The time is closing on yet another political career of a party leader. Since election night in 07 we have had Howard, Cossie, Brenda and now the Merchant Banker
George Megalogenis wrote a jokey blog post that says the Newspoll will be Tuesday:
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/toot_toot_tweet_tweet_yeah/desc#commentsmore
Whose going to watch ‘order in the house’
Worth taping I reckon
I cannot see Hockey taking on the leadership at this point. The Liberals can go through 10 leaders and the discord will not die down until they settle their policy on climate change. All of this discord has been provoked by the Minchinovs. Had they accepted Turnbull’s call at the outset, the ETS would have passed by now; Turnbull would be seen as a great reformer and the Liberals would be back in the political game.
There will be plenty of time for Hockey and any number of others to try themselves out as leaders, but if they don’t get on top of the climate change issue, they really won’t have a party worth leading.
The PM should tell Her Majesty that her speech at CHOGM went down a treat and that she should make an even stronger push for dealing with CC in her Christmas day message.
Also that your royal whatshisname who’s visiting next year should be worded up to demonstrate how in touch he and his fellow royal bludgers are with our struggling planet by making many references as to how hot it is here in the penal colony and how it’s about time something was done about it.
Mumble has a hit.
http://mumble.com.au/
Mmmh.
I too, Fredex, would like to see the next Newspoll. Supposing that they asked the relevant questions.
Otherwise, it would be a snow job.
Abbott in his Budgie Smugglers.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2009/11/29/2756627.htm
I record it whenever its on.
It wasn’t JUST Turnbull’s call. If you exclude the Nationals, who were all committed to voting against it, the Liberals were in favour of voting for the amended CPRS by a margin of about 10.
This whole fiasco has been confected by the denial nutters because they can’t handle losing a fair fight fair and square.
You just have to chuckle whenever you see “Turnbull” and “cat” in the same sentence
scorpio,
Yes, I remember that occasion when you said you were wrong and it turned out that in fact you were right.
Bolt dismissed the speech on Insiders by saying it was probably written by the U.K. government.
Surely the Queen SOMETIMES says things on her own accord?
Yup. With any luck they will get what’s coming to them.
Frank,
Check out the Willagee site. The Greens are hopping uncomfortably.
If we had a practising Queen, or King, many in the Opposition would be in the Tower, awaiting their fate.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/liberals-in-red-hot-trouble-on-climate/story-e6frg71x-1225804745883
Anyone else notice how the OO complain-a-minute posts on PB have stopped since the Liberals went in to meltdown?
@2480… IM
Unca GG
Who are the Greens again?
@2480.. I’m traumatised!
HM on you tube on climate change. Not a bad speech.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3Jq17DlMLg
Budgee smugglers and politicians.
1. Harold Holt : Okay as long as you can swim.
2. Bob Hawke : Less than meet the eyes.
3. Peter Debnam : In the navy.
4. Tony Abbott : No one takes me seriously anyway.
Frank @ 2480 – how could you? What is it about some politicians that they have to do this? Don’t they get enough exposure on TV as it is? LOL. Springborg doing his ironing ironing just wearing a towel, that Peter fellow in NSW (I’m from Qld so don’t know all the NSW pollies) in HIS budgie smugglers and now the Mad Monk himself. I suppose it appeals to some voters!
Wot.. you mean Tony is going after the gay vote? heh
gus,
Nothing up my sleeve.
Just quoting their words back at them. Hurts every time.
Loved the Macbeth reference, someone earlier, perhaps Socrates.
And Dave, some time back, your lyrical and apt take.
Enjoyed hugely by the household.
As Banjo fans.
If there is an early newpoll, would now be a good time to start looking at the OO?
Phew
For a moment there I thought you were going to say they were a fair dinkum political party,willing to resolve, through negotiation, the problems that afflict us all.
Thanks for the clarification
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/liberals-in-red-hot-trouble-on-climate/story-e6frg71x-1225804745883
That’s not fair. Keating Labor was reasonable disciplined and had coherent (not to mention good) policies.
gus,
What makes you think I’m a Communist?
Which of these policies are you referring to? Selling Commonwealth Bank? Selling QANTAS? Selling the Commonwealth Serum Laboratories? Enterprise Bargaining?
The last Newspoll prior to the 06 SA election had Labor on 56% and they got 56.8% – final Centrebet odds were $13 for the Libs and $1.01 for Labor. If a federal election were held today, would these be the likely odds give or take?
I don’t particularly agree in selling off assets, no.
I like enterprise bargaining.
But you’ve only mentioned a bit of Keating economics, and none of Keating’s social program.
And Keating’s insults were the cream on top
This shows the shallow level of thinking of the mad monk!
He’d rather see the Liberal Party eat itself from the inside, than see Kevin Rudd get a bit of kudos on behalf of the country in Copenhagen!
Quite a price to pay! Kevvie probably wouldn’t improve his PPM levels anyway but there is a good chance he might gain a bit if Turnbull is replaced!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/29/2756620.htm?section=justin
Bernard Keane on Twitter
LOL
I agree they need to find Dutton a safer seat! Being Deputy Liberal Leader and representing a nominally Labor seat isn’t a good look!
I suppose Alex Somelay’s health is about to get a whole lot worse in the next week!
That would seem to prove that its not about the leader, its about the ideology of climate change denialism. If so Hockey could never get voted for unless he also went on a platform of stalling the Bill and also pretending that climate change isn’t happening. If so, Turnbull will run against him.
In a race between Turnbull and Hockey where the real issue is climate denialism, not the leadership, even the conservatives (the non denialists) will have to sit up and pay attention to the polling. It will end up being a matter of what they individually think about their own seat.
I just don’t think its at all certain that the loonies are going to win.
Mind you, coming from Abbott, do you believe he was a closet denialist to start with, or do you believe he thinks that pushing the Liberal Party to the hard right is going to suit his own medieval social ideology?
Bob if a federal election were to be held next Saturday it would be ALP 1.02 / LNP 16.00.
Let’s hope we don’t see Sloppy Joe in Speedos!
I think the newspoll time has been and gone. We might have to wait till tomorrow night.
Bugger it.
I’m sure Sunrise has soome footage from the Kokoda Track
And just think about how Labor will attack the Liberals during the election campaign. They will say that Hockey is a nice guy but the people that control his party can’t be trusted, and they won’t allow him to have his way on issues that he feels strongly about. (Just look what they did to Turnbull).
Don’t give up yet! Sometimes it is later on Sunday nights and a covering story has to be written!
Puppet Party?
The obvious question to ask Hockey:
How does it feel being Nick Minchin’s puppet?
And we’ve never seen Rudd in budgie smugglers either! Do we want to see that?
Hawkie wasn’t embarrassed about stripping down for the cameras.
I’m watching this really old documentary on Family First’s 2004 Federal Election campaign. They had a scene of the #1 Senate candidates from each state (of course including Fielding) debating what the party’s policy should be on the apology to the Stolen Generations. Most of them said that the party SHOULDN’T support an apology. The party director said that they SHOULD support the apology so that they don’t get branded as right wing wackos. So he decided that for the sake of party unity the party would have no official position on the issue because everyone else in the room disagreed with him!
As a cultural Catholic, I am amazed that the Fab Four are of similar persuasion.
I had no idea that Malcolm, too, is a Catholic.
So what will Turnbull do when he resigns
a) resign to the back bench
b) resign from politics- hence byelection
c) move to the cross benches as an independent with Katter, oakshot and crew
d) Join the ALP
I would love c) or d) but alas I think it will be a) or b)…….Is there an e) i haven’t thought of?
Why is everyone so fixated on Newspoll? I thought PBers questioned Newspoll as the poll of choice when the 52-48 came out?
Yeah Rudd should hold a press conference:
This one.
Its the Newspoll data about support for action on climate change that I want to see. And how it shows that stalling the ETS is electoral suicide at least in the cities.
But he had to think about “England” and not “Blanche” every time!
or e) becomes MD of the rain making coorporation, breaks the drought, becomes a hero retakes the leadership of the coalition and wins the election 2018 (and secures the world cup)
Rudd should be more careful.
Julia is doing a more than excellent job, in his frequent absences.
Not beyond the bounds that a scenario similar may take place.
But Julia has the guts Costello never had.
It shows how beholden Hockey is to his masters from the loony right that he’s forced to make Abbott Shadow Treasurer – imagine the fun Swan will have with the Mad Monk!
And Fraser even lost his pants
What’s the latest newspoll has ever come up?
I need to know when to go to bed…
crikey, You can’t be serious
And does Mesma stay Shadow Foreign Minister? I bet Stephen Smith hopes so!
Hockey will say that the party will not rule out an ETS. The Liberal Party policy will officially be that they want to know what the major polluters will do about CC before committing to the CPRS.
Three positions to be taken to the electorate on CC. The Greens are going to be granted their wish. Oh boy, are they going to be granted their wish.
sireggo
I doubt very much there’ll be a Newspoll tonight.
OK then
Goodnight!
LOL! This Family First documentary is hilarious. It has some great footage of Steve Fielding playing badminton and cricket with his kids, followed by him driving without a seat belt on as he complains about the two party system.
The opening line of his campaign speech was:
sireggo,
Usually around 11 to 11.15 but I’m sure it has been around midnight on occasions on Sunday nights.
It’s not exactly common on Sunday, usually Monday night!
It’s never a good time to start looking at the OO
Steve Lewis says Hockey is running after being told to do so by Howard and Costello:
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/hockey-ready-to-step-up/story-e6frf7jo-1225805135630
I agree, it’s lost its mantle IMO. My only interest in the next Newspoll is the undoubted effect it will have on the loony Libs.
I stopped reading right there
I am, Steve K
Yes the Liberal Party and Cathiolics not a good fit it seems – Nelson, Abbott and Turnbull. And now some far-right Catholics are leading the denialsist
charge – even though their Pope and the Vatican are heading in the opposite direction -
see for the Pope
http://www.vatican.va/holy_father/benedict_xvi/messages/pont-messages/2009/documents/hf_ben-xvi_mes_20090924_summit-climat-change_en.html
and for the Vatican’s “carbon neutral and solar policies”
http://www.vatican.va/roman_curia/secretariat_state/2008/documents/rc_seg-st_20080212_climate-change_en.html
It should read
Steve Lewis says Hockey is running after being told to do so by Abbott and Costello, The Marx Bros, Jerry Lewis and Barnaby Joyce
OK, let’s assume that after Copenhagen, the major countries, in particular the U.S/China/India, agree on significant emissions cuts! Will that be enough to get the Liberals on board, or will the loony right still argue that the science hasn’t been proved and there’s no evidence that mankind contributes to climate change?
So if Hockey is going to argue that the Liberals haven’t changed their policy, was then is the point of dumping Turnball?
Remember too that Hockey isn’t the favoured candidate of the radio shockjocks and the far right part of the Liberal base. I daresay they’ll initially jump on board because “Rudd’s Tax” is being shelved, but these people like Alan Jones owe Sloppy Joe no loyalty, and they’ll knife him after the 2010 landslide.
Oh well, I didn’t predict the Liberal leader at the next election
But I predicted long ago that Turnbull was finished and that the ETS would not pass the Senate
Steve Lewis still has a job? Standards are low in the Australian media!
Chantelois wants to get back with her husband:
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26418356-5006301,00.html
More evidence that she just made her accusations to get back in her husband’s good books.
No gold stars for you!
Any Conspiracy Theorists here able to decipher the meaning of Steve Price’s reference to a “trio” Who’s the father, the son, and the spirit then?
In any event, it is nonsense to suggest that they, and we, pay no attention to polls.
Newspoll, in particular.
Pollbludgers hang on every question, phraseology, terminology.
Analysing the minutest detail.
In hundreds, if not thousands, of posts.
Oops! Steve Lewis’ reference?
Never. She’s a well-trained constitutional monarch. If she was given a speech saying the Earth was about to freeze solid, she’d read it out with equal diligence. I doubt she even pays attention to what she’s saying.
I”m still sticking with my prediction that Turnball turns independent, takes Wentworth with him, and becomes the new best friend of Rudd & Albo, as millions are showered on Bondi and Rose Bay!
Gordon Grech!
Hem
Hyacinth silly, is the ‘third person”
Psephos: Her Majesty hated Margaret Thatcher!
And Buckingham Palace has embraced fighting climate change, Queen Liz makes sure all the lights are turned off!
a) I doubt Rudd would favour certain electorates like the coalition did and got in shit for.
b) He’d just be another Oakeshott-type independent… economic conservative social progressive.
Scorpio,
An instant classic.
That’s unsourced gossip. She’s never said any such thing on the record. She sent Thatcher a very nice personal letter when Dennis died.
crikey whitey wrote
Thanks mate. I’m a Banjo man myself.
I love the audio reading of Banjos work on CD by the late great Leonard Teale. Most of us learnt some of Banjos work at school etc but Leonards CD’s really brought it to life for me.
Gus,
But Hyacinth would never ever allow Johnny to invite the Hockeys over to the Lodge or Kirribili for dinner………………oh, sorry, that was the Costellos.
I think she mentioned something about an “Anus horibillus” some time back!
I’m pretty sure she wrote that one!
She was probably thinking about Malcolm at the time!
2560
I seem to remember that the Queen turns of lights in unused rooms and does other frugal things because of the need to conserve resources instilled in her during the Second World War.
The Queen likes Kev, she had an extra big smile for him at CHOGM!
I bet the Liberal idiots hated watching ABC NEWS tonight, our PM being feted by Gordon Brown, Sarkozy, Her Majesty etc.
I gather the facts would be that Turnbull has the numbers over Abbott. But if Turnbull remains the Right will continue to destabilise the party until he is gone or the election well and truly lost, destroying a number of extra members in the process.
The moderates in more marginal seats will be desperate to shut the Right up and find a compromise.
The moderates have two bargaining chips, Turnbull and the ETS.
1. The options are keep Turnbull and have the party wrecked from within, and no guarantee the Senate will behave on the ETS.
2. Dump Turnbull on the agreement that the ETS is quickly put to bed.
3. Dump Turnbull and block the ETS until after Copenhagen etc.
Option 3 is the one that would do most damage and Hockey would be crazy to challenge Turnbull on this basis. The party loses credibility in a number of ways.
Option 1 is the second most damaging.
Option 2 is the best of the three. The moderates can offer up Turnbull in exchange for getting the ETS off the menu quick smart. And would be a fair swap.
I gather also on Option 1 that Turnbull’s enemies may also turn up stuff on Grech/Turnbull or similar if it exists.
Excellent work, Dave.
Yes and she endorses Harpic Flushmatic and some brand of Tuna I can’t remember (it says on the label by appointment of her Majesty the Queen) I can just see he on her hands and knees cleaning the toilet and sitting down the a snack of canned tuna.
@2569.. the moderates in marginal seats will be desperate to get the ETS over and done with.
2545
If we were two years into Rudd’s third term them it might just be on Gillard’s radar. Your about six years too early and Rudd will have left the job of his own accord by then. He’s got even bigger things to do than simply remain Australia’s PM.
evan14,
Pies, Bolt, PD & JA will be lining up at Chandlers for new TV’s in the morning!
I heard they keep bricks beside their armchairs for special purposes like that!
I don’t know if going to lunch at Wollstonecraft counts, but driving around the block 2 or 3 times as the sloppy one did may. Boy does that look graet on his CV !
Head of the New World Government?
Hockey will never overcome the perception that he was installed in the leadership by Minchin & his henchmen, in return for shelving the ETS(or sending it off to a senate committee, to remain in limbo forever). Joe can spout all he likes about his committment to fighting global warming and I daresay he and whoever is his environment spokesman will cobble together something that makes the Liberals look vaguely green, but I and many others will never forget that he sold out his principles and stabbed Turnball in the back, all for power!
If Rudd becomes…
that would make him Supreme Being
@2569.. the problem with option 2 is that while the moderates might go for the option to dump Turnbull but pass the ETS, who are they going to vote for? Hockey?
Only if Hockey goes in on a platform to pass the ETS.
But then the nutjobs will treat Hockey as if he were Turnbull. Repeat of option 1.
He had to give Johnnie time to finish the washing up and tidy the lounge room!
Hyacinth always insists on keeping up appearances!
LOL! Dolly Downer has a punt every which way. The Liberals should stick with Turnbull, but not vote on the CPRS until after Copenhagen:
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26418173-2682,00.html
Where is Amanda Vanstone when we need her?
I think it is time for her to sing now!!!!!!!
Will the Liberals send someone to Copenhagen, as they’re so concerned about the outcome? Once they turf out Turnball and Chainsaw, will there be any climate change believers left on the front bench?
It only works of course if they all are happy having Turnbull’s head and willing to shut up and save a few seats. At least Hockey is one of them. None of the options are any good, the best is the least damaging one.
But if they are in the all or nothing mode of thinking then it will be the worst of all worlds for them.
Hockey with still living ETS will be the worst outcome.
Some people are still so foolish as to believe that the idea of putting it off until Copenhagen isn’t the tactic it really is.
Order in house coming up
Writing a letter to the ABC asking why they won’t report about her
Why is that contradictory? A Liberal MP can vote for Turnbull but not for the current CPRS right here right now…
That photo, Jonny and Joe.
Surely it was the back door.
Oh, the faux wrought iron.
Apologies to those in similar habitats.
I noticed how joe seemed to be scurrying away, perhaps johnny had been grounded for losing the election and HIS seat.
Hyacinth is still not amused
P.D. pipes up:
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/trio-who-came-to-bury-their-leader/story-e6frezz0-1225804886583
And of course that loathsome Sophie Mirabella and that “intellectual giant” Cory Bernadi will be back on the front bench!
Hockey will be told too to promote Dennis Jensen: prediction!
Because TURNBULL’S POSITION IS TO PASS THE CPRS ASAP!
As he said on Today this morning “Delay is denial.”
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26418173-2682,00.html
One sentence in to the article and already I know it’s gonna be another one of Dolly’s finest. I’ve recently eaten so I think i’ll bookmark it for a later read.
Thomas.. Hockey with still living ETS will be the worst outcome from precisely who?
By the way, PB gang, the last thread — weighing in at 4,201 comments — was an all-time record.
Your point? It is the right of every Liberal MP to vote how they want. It might not be a good position to be in, but it’s not a contradictory position to be in.
Oh, goanna.
As I said when Howard fell, not exactly, but, Amanda must be laughing her fat or even fatter guts off.
Individual liberty is usually code for appeal to base selfishness. The Americans are fond of the word “freedom”.. which is much the same thing.
Tonight’s game: What will be Kerry O’Brien’s first question to New Liberal leader Joe Hockey on Tuesday night?
“How does it feel to have Nick Minchin pulling your strings”?
But I can’t help myself.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26418173-2682,00.html
Doesn’t he get it? Without more drastic measures from all countries, the changing environment will destroy the economy.
A wise precaution
Chewin’ up the Crikey bandwidth, that’s us
If the result is Hockey with a blocked ETS then it is the worst result for the Liberal Party and Australia.
Rudd and Gillard and Co will be landing king hits on Hockey morning noon and night with the ETS not passed.
LOL! Downer effectively backs Turnbull for trying to modernise the party, but then towards the end says the CPRS shouldn’t be past until after Copenhagen.
Those points are contradictory because Turnbull has repeatedly staked his leadership on passing the CPRS ASAP, and refers to delaying it further as a form of denial.
I’m sorry if that is too complicated to understand, that is as easy as I can make it.
My sources tell me that it was Mrs Howard, busy hiding the food – “Send him ’round again John, I can’t find a secure place for this caramel tart.”
Still, Sloppy must have found most of it – he was there for two hours. The look on the rodent’s face as Sloppy jelly-wobbled down the stairs in that photograph said it all – the look of a pensioner whose adult kids have just been around and eaten out the fridge!!
Any credibility Dolly had lingering has just been lost.
The Liberal party is a walking contradiction, so that move may just eventuate…
Turnbull staked his leadership on it. Dolly didn’t. Dolly appears to back Turnbull but not the way he’s handling the CPRS. This is actually the view of many in the party.
This is for everyone here
A professional like Joe doesn’t need two hours
I can’t disagree on that particular point.
So much for Joe’s much publicised fitness program, the one he did before walking Kokoda with Kochie!
Evan14 @2600 : “Et tu, Bloatus?”
Shadow Environment spokesperson!
Thomas @2603.. if Hockey steps up as leader with a promise to drop the ETS, Turnbull will run against him. You simply then have to look at the selfish best interest of each MP to figure out that Turnbull would probably win that vote.
I think we might ease up on the fattism, bludgers. There are plenty of other things to get stuck into Hockey over.
And doesn’t this statement confirm that the Liberals actions in the Senate are a deliberate failure to pass. Their motive is clearly stated. Thus the GG shouldn’t have any difficulty in assessing that any delay of the bill was deliberate for the purposes of it not being voted on.
[ Rebel Liberal senators are considering thwarting Malcolm Turnbull’s demand for an emissions trading vote on Monday, in what threatens to be another blow to the besieged opposition leader.
Former Howard minister Kevin Andrews says senators will do whatever is necessary to delay a vote on the government’s emissions trading scheme (ETS) until after Copenhagen.
Liberal senators will meet early on Monday morning to discuss whether to continue filibustering the debate, he said.
“We should delay it and if that means talking it out, that means talking it out,” he told Network Ten on Sunday.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/rebel-liberals-toying-with-delays-on-ets-20091129-jyg0.html
Good night gents and any ladies(Where’s Vera?), see ya all in the morning!
And Bob, you be good, OK?
The part of the bargain is stop the right from undermining the party because Turnbull is at the helm. The trade off is Turnbull’s head in exchange for passing the ETS and shutting up thereafter.
The night of the carving knife,the skewer,kebab rack and argentinian grill
Burp
Gee, Psephos.
Kev loves thinism.
He probably still loves Joe.
And wants the best for him.
I think the denialists are going to get very hot under the collar over the next twelve months
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8377128.stm
ps – have to keep posting, computer won’t let me sign out!!
Exhibit A would be that hilarious speech he made during the debate over email-gate:
http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22chamber%2Fhansardr%2F2009-06-22%2F0009%22
It starts of poorly, and just gets worse:
Quite right Adam, I do tend to be a bit Daily Telegraph as far as my political sophistication goes. Though I notice The OO is featuring a large colour photo of People Skills in red budgie smugglers tomorrow. Sort of a reverse fatism? Or a sledge-hammer subtle OO comment on Hockey’s weight and fitness versus the OO pin-up boy’s weight and fitness?
NewsPoll where are you !
Grech is on it now.
Thomas.. then it boils down to what the real motivation is.. is it
a) To block any action on climate change – climate denialists
b) To steer the LP to the right – even if that means wiping out its marginals
c) To punish Turnbull for his leadership.
My feeling is its hard to tell between a) and b) but there are some of both. And while some might bitch at Turnbull himself I think its more his policy they hate.
The easy test is if Turnbull offers to step down if the Senators offer to abstain. That will be the test of whether its a) or c)
WOW! So the ETS will have a positive effect on the nation:
It will stop a denier from blogging! That will help.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/tips_for_sunday_november_29/desc/
I think installing Dutton as deputy is ridiculous. He will have to spend all of the election campaign in QLD.
Compare that to Labor having Gillard who is as good if not better than Rudd at getting Labor’s message across.
Joe’s BIG announcements, lead to a sense of FATTENING the calf.
Of course in the BIG picture, his GARGANTUAN contribution are like cutting the FAT off the political bone.
An overly LARGE view would seem to contend that his BLOATED ego does not equal his less than OBESE intellect.
But of course we deal with much WEIGHTy matters,
Ah so this is what Howard said:
Which was mentioned in Dolly Downer’s article too:
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26418173-2682,00.html
Not to mention Joe has a more than ample frame
It will be so nice for Bolt to be shown as a fraud.
And I wonder if Fielding will have the grace to resign when it becomes obvious how his cute little graph is scientific fraud.
Howard was never sincere about his cap and trade and he knew he was dealing with denialists in his cabinet.
I think the right have a passionate hatred of the ETS but must see that it is inevitable one way or another. No escaping it. And that to keep it alive is only to inflict fatal wounds on themselves.
But rational behaviour and thinking has been scarce among them of late.
I think they might be happy to get rid of Turnbull because of his style, because he is not of the true Liberal family and because he is to left for them. Hockey would be a fill in candidate that would get the numbers but weak and more easily coerced, he is also a genuine part of the Liberal family and knows the culture.
Fielding is scary and then they go to Sen Milne
Itchy and Scratchy?
Anyone who has really considered going into politics when they had very young children is probably, like me, feeling a bit sorry for Joe, his wife and his kids. But then again he probably won’t be leader for long once Minchin et al realise that he is not a true “convert”.
So the question really is.. are there enough rational self maximisers left in the LP to realise it should pass the ETS and then bludgeon its leader over the holiday.
I suspect that even if, say, next year is the hottest on record, he will just say the data is flawed. If the year following that is hotter, he will just dismiss it by saying the data is flawed.
Repeat indefinitely.
Rupert must have told him that if he can’t stop the ETS, then he will have his PC taken off him!;-)
Should have had it taken off him years ago!
Out of the blue a Nielsen poll reported in the Herald, taken on Friday and Saturday:
56/44
Greens up 3%, Labor primary down 3%, Turnbull’s popularity soars among Labor voters andmuch more…
http://www.smh.com.au/national/go-joe-voters-back-hockey-20091129-jyv9.html
Thomas.. my point still remains. If Hockey is seen to fall into the denialist camp then the cooler heads in the LP won’t vote for him as leader.
Yes cud chewer 2636 , but I think the real irony is that if Howard had narrowly won in 2007 he would have passed an ETS just to get it “off the table” for the next election. I think he had a bit more – shall we say – “rat cunning” than Minchin, Abetz and Abbott.
Cud
totally agree
Hockery is being used as a Pawn.
Abbott is the main man, but knows that Mal needs to resign,hence the MSM bullstein
Mal will stay strong!
Ahh Mi savvy. Same same before. Non Core Promise ! Em e come up again ?
Tru Pela ?
So! Michael Johnson was about to be sacked as Whip by Chief Whip Alex Somlyay for misuse of entitlements.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,26417985-3102,00.html
http://www.smh.com.au/national/go-joe-voters-back-hockey-20091129-jyv9.html
Here goes a big one to all the bludgers out there…………….
Here it comes again:
Ah ha! Gazumped Newspoll! They won’t like that!
“Joe believes if this bill is not passed, nobody in our party, including him, would have the capacity to present a credible alternative on climate change policy”
Hmm..
Bob
What’s that saying about light bulbs just before they blow???
Erm, The Greens haven’t been around for 37 years
Full break down of the Nielsen poll here:
http://www.smh.com.au/national/rudds-approval-rating-slips-but-his-scheme-wins-voters-20091129-jyvm.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Greens
1972 + 37 = 2009
I’ll make it even easier just for you Frank:
And I’ll make it eadier for you
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8HUbD_TJD4
I still think that Rudd should at least threaten to move towards dealing with the Greens.. that will motivate em
WA state politics. Yawn.
Fielding is a dumb pussycat. He is Dumber than Dumb. He make average look like Einstein.
Eric the hun is scary, weird etc. The only *reason* I can fathom as to why he is in the senate is that the taswegians demeem him the *smartest of the litter.
That incoherent gush of a speech of Hockey’s on Grech Day proved that he is an incompetent muddle-head, totally unfit to lead a political party, let alone a government. It was the speech of a man who completely loses his head under pressure. And after his unscrupulous double-crossing of Turnbull, we also know that Hockey is man of weak and shallow personal character, a two-faced treacherous liar and political opportunist. We don’t set the bar very high in Australian politics, goodness knows, but I can’t see the voters accepting this backstabbing weasel as an alternative national leader. Come the new year, Rudd and Gillard will utterly demolish him.
*gone*
Yet you crowed when Queen adele won in Fremantle.
Glass Jaw need fixing ?
Abbott presser on OITH
He is the chief mutineer.
Impure and not so simple
Because I wasn’t expecting the Greens to win. It was their best performance in any lower house seat anywhere. It was unexpected.
Willagee is status quo. Yet in a seat where the 30% Liberal vote was up for grabs and all candidates got various swings, Labor could only muster 2% of it. Not much of a vote of confidence in terms of voters that only swing between Labor and Liberal.
May I refer you to this:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/11/28/willagee-by-election-live/comment-page-3/#comment-365167
Well that is right.
The option is to offer Turnbull’s head in exchange for passing the ETS. The worst option would be to dump Turnbull and block the ETS (which appears what they might try and do).
I gather the right are also concerned with Turnbull’s leanings and probably now given the words exchanged, hatred…they may be happy with this prize. However if the right want it all then there is no reason for the moderates to take that deal…it is a lose lose.
Hockey is the sacrificial lamb to stop the guerrilla warfare.
Replied there.
Shanahan’s got Newspoll!
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/malcolm-turnbull-pays-the-price-for-mayhem/story-e6frg6n6-1225805158001
So Frank…
Woo!!
Somewhere, sometime, someone I think the Age, used the header, Dolt from the Blue.
That was about Kevin Andrews.
Bemused, BB, that Turnbull has not made more of his oddly supportive cohort, the Labour voters.
Many of us have emailed Malcolm, offering advice and support. I am not alone in so doing.
I can only assume that the dolts he employs don’t get it.
My mind goes back to the ridiculously ill advised Grech thing, whereby he was so idiotic, hubristic and had no one to correct him, given his foolish and brainless staffers.
Not to mention Lucy.
Who no doubt means well, after all, Malcolm has provided.
But sometimes, a little advice on how to deal, would be worthy of an hearing.
Malcolm does not need artful spinners, he is straightforward, honest.
Speaks for himself.
I bet he rues the moment that he caved in to the anti boat people paddlers.
So.. what’s to stop Minchin and friends from now filibustering every single bit of legislation? How long does it take before the newspapers start writing them off as juvenile delinquents?
And if there is a limit to how much they can filibuster then the government should announce publicly tomorrow (Monday) that if the Bill is further delayed they will bring back the original.
Turnbull’s position is right:
But it is a minority view among Coalition voters:
Crikey, if I were MT and I won the vote, one of the things I would do to declare ****-you to the conservatives is to publicly denounce the use of boat people as a political plaything.
Yeah, it’s not like they care less about what the leader of their party tells them to do.
I suspect in February the government will put the original back through the House just so they can point out that the CPRS was blocked 3 times.
and like that other great Tassie icon- the thylacine, soon to be extinct
enjoy the light while it briefly flickers, flickerbriefly’s
LOL etc etc etc
I thought the days of 60/40 were over. It’s a pity Rudd Labor only managed to pick up 1% on 2PP after the past 2 weeks.
I wouldn’t be getting too excited over Turnbull’s current form because he happens to be on the side many of us prefer and because he is stubborn beyond belief against the very people we hate. His enemy is our enemy doesn’t make him our friend in any sense once they are out of the way.
He would be the same way in a fight over a lettuce leaf. I can guarantee he will disgust and horrify us again as he did with Ute-gate when personal interest trumps decency, because his it is his nature driving him, not a overarching desire to do what is right.
And if the government reintroduces the original bill, Minchin will probably try to send it too to a committee. The constitutional test for “failed to pass” seems stronger on the amended Bill, but since it isn’t the same bill as the original there would argument that the same Bill had been rejected 3 times.. no?
Current events will take a little while to sink in. I expect it will get worse.
The original bill has already been through 2 committees. If they send it off to a committee again then it would be pretty easy for the government to argue that the committees were just being used as a delaying tactic.
It is possible that their wouldn’t be majority support in the Senate to send them off to committees again. I would like to think that by that stage the minor parties would just demand that the Liberals vote the legislation down, thus creating a D.D. trigger.
Referral to committee would be a failure to pass because of what Andrews said below. There whole motivation has been revealed to be only to delay the bill, not consider it. ‘…do whatever is necessary to delay a vote…’
[Current events will take a little while to sink in. I expect it will get worse.
Yes, especially when Hockey is forced by the wackaloons to start his leadership by showing that the Liberals can't be trusted even when they come to an agreement with the government.
Minchin is risking the eternal emnity of one of South Australia’s biggest businesses, Santos. At the most senior levels, Santos has been demanding the CPRS be finalised and passed into law as quickly as possible.
Reading critically and carefully, Shamehans column seems to be construing the worst possible result for Turnbull.
Only citing (am I surprised) results which denigrate Turnbull.
No release of the actual figures, upon which we could take a reading of the true situation.
But this remains surreal and crazy. Why would Shamehan be interested in downing a Lib?
One interesting point to note in the Neilsen poll in the SMH – 66% of voters want an ETS passed! Note that the previous results that implied a drop in support asked whether it should be delayed. So some who want an ETS might still prefer a slight delay. But asked straight up, do you want an ETS, the answer is 66/34 yes!
http://www.smh.com.au/national/go-joe-voters-back-hockey-20091129-jyv9.html
So much for the groundswell of voters phoning coalition MPs depanding no ETS. If they exist, they are not so much as a Silent Majority, as a Moronic Minority.
Does this mean that Abbott will be the front runner to lead the Liberals after they lose next year’s election?
I think William has gone to bed, otherwise we’d have got a Newspoll 57-43 thread by now.
Shows On @ 2677
I agree. They don’t want an eary election – but they can’t appear to back of because they were pushing it so urgently.
Putting the bill through the house again – probably with the negotiated amendments and therefore possibly with bipartisan support in the House – and then sending it back to the senate again in Feb/March ‘as a gesture of good faith and in a spirit of compromise and negotiation in the national interest’ would keep the issue front and centre, look like they were continuing to work constructively to get the bill passed, and send the Libs into another round of palpitations.
The early portion of the Newspoll two-week survey period was overshadowed by the final stages of the five-week + media and Opposition beat-up on “asylum seekers”. Once that washes out (next Newspoll) I’d expect the government’s stocks to rise, in league with the effects of the Liberal meltdown.
Thomas, I’m not madly in love with MT. Especially after the ruthless way he conducted his campaign. My dream outcome would be for Hockey to win, promising the denialists something which he then reneges on. Hockey then immediately instructs the few moderate Senators to vote for the Bill. In a fit of picque, Abbott then calls for a spill and runs himself, and gets voted for. This leaves the LP without any leaders who haven’t been stabbed in the back going into an election where its moderates lose their seats. What remains of the LP get’s increasingly loopy and ends up writing political columns that noone reads because the printed papers go out of business.
If people were asked to vote tomorrow I think they would find it very hard indeed to vote for the Coalition. 57/43 would be generous. Some people would be assuming that things will settle down to a more normal course and thus not change their vote.
Shanners was on Lateline on Thursday (?) claiming that Turnbull was going to step aside within hours, before the whole fracas really blew up. I remember thinking at the time – you know what the bloke is like! There is no way he’ll resign.
Shanners powers of analysis are up there with Uhlmann’s. He describes vague things and rambles through his allotted space till the word count satisfied. I wouldn’t be looking too hard for a motive in his piece – those still waters run shallow.
I’m related to one of Santos’ chief CPRS negotiators with the government and opposition. They were all shocked and horrified about what happened last week, because they thought it was going to be the week that it would finally pass.
I hope you’re right Cuppa, but I think we’ve reached the point where the voters have pretty much worked out where they stand. I think earlier higher results for the ALP in the polls simply reflected a lot of soft Liberal voters protesting at things like Malcom wavering and then opposing the stimulus. I think all the boat people issue does is harden the attitude of the “core”.
Keep in mind that March – May will basically be filled up with budget speculation.
But if the Government puts the CPRS back through the house this week or in Feb, then by the March sittings they will certainly have a D.D. trigger.
Newspoll polls Friday-Sunday inclusive, normally each fortnight.
ShowsOn, that’s one thing I keep meaning to ask. Surely the level headed corporate sector must be fuming about the backdown. And if so is there any sign of a backlash? Are their lobbyists jumping up and down on the moderates in the LP?
If Hockey took the job with the proviso he has to stop/delay the ETS then that would be madness (but is probably is what is intended).
The only way Hockey should accept is if they agree to pass the ETS. The vote becomes Turnbull & possible ETS passage & continued right guerrilla warfare -V- Hockey & guaranteed ETS passage (with a guarantee to stop destabilising)
Definitley, Cud Chewer.
Bugger, can’t spell definitely.
Further to spelling skills, I meant Shameham.
Cud Chewer, give it a couple of weeks of relief from “asylum seekers” dominating every bulletin, plus public awareness of what a rabble the Liberals are (thanks Nick and Tony), I’d expect some waverers – if there are any voters that haven’t yet firmed their intentions – to move back to the government. All things being equal, next Newspoll: 59:41.
I can’t recall where I read it, but certainly pressure from big business was one factor that played on the Liberal’s (Turnbull’s) mind.
I am told that the management of Santos see a Labor / Liberal negotiated ETS as a much better prospect than a Labor / Green ETS that they fear would ramp up deep cuts faster than that could improve their extraction methods to reduce emissions, thus meaning they would need to buy more permits, and couldn’t sell their free permits to fund investment.
I just hope Hockey has the intellect to truly comprehend the sheer religiosity of the denialists.
TP
Hockey is the trojan draughthorse
abbott is the one aiming for the crown
Michin & Co. have probably sold him down a river. They are SAYING that they just want it delayed until after Copenhagen, but what they really mean is they want it delayed indefinitely so they can fight an election over it.
The Government should agree to a committee that will report back to the Senate on 18th of December, i.e. the day Copenhagen ends. Then the Senate should sit again on the 21st to pass the damn thing.
That would be AFTER COPENHAGEN. If the Liberals block it then, then they will be seen as liars AGAIN for saying they wanted to delay until after Copenhagen, when they were really going to vote it down all along.
Well its time for the sensible end of town to have some unpleasant things to say to the Minchkins…
I’ve no doubt that Turnbull will try to explain to Hockey his insight into the fact that they really are about blocking at any cost. I have a feeling that even MT himself only came to terms with that relatively recently.
Long Noses for Liberals Day. Thanks Socrates …
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/11/27/morgan-58-5-41-5/comment-page-35/#comment-364356
Cuppa.. they deserve a 59/41 but I’d be very happy with 57. I’m still hoping for a final outcome of 54 point something.
LOL! I love this hilarious bit:
Even Turnbull in his darkest hour is more popular than Abbott.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/joe-hockey-set-to-take-on-malcolm-turnbull/story-e6frg6n6-1225805155171
57 on election day would be about 105 House seats and probably half the Senate.
Minchin will have to fund their next election campaign out of his money box.
ShowsOn
Imagine this. Joe chatting to Kev, about his being sold down the river.
Joe could do worse than seek a little solid advice, from his old companion.
ShowsOn, you’re quite right. And I think Penny might just be pissed off enough to do that. Its after Copenhagen, so fscking sign it!
He should realise that the deniers will only be convinced they are wrong when one of them loses an election, most probably in a massive land slide.
So they ‘might’ just settle for Turnbull’s scalp but pass the ETS. The best result for Rudd.
ShowsOn, an election defeat will only prove to them that the electorate were wrong. Witness the attitude already where they think the voters must be deluded and they’ll get over it.
He saved kev from that river in kokoda so yeah kev should save joe from the river styx
“dont pay the ferryman joe”
Crap. For Labor to get half the Senate in a DD they’d need about 50% of the vote, which would be approx 10% swing.
The Greens (who have risen to new heights yet again) will continue to deprive Labor a chunk of the left vote.
Yes.. it all hinges off whether its the leadership or the ideology..
On the one hand you could end up with the denialists + conservatives vs the rest. On the other hand you could end up with the denialists + a few conservatives vs the rest. And the line will fall depending on who realises how unsafe their seat is.
Advice, I said. Gusface.
sorry Crikey
I meant joe should not sell his soul just to get to his objective.That to me would be the best advice one friend could give to another
The only way for peace within the COALition is to get rid of Turnbull. If he won then there is no way the likes of Tuckey and Minchin will roll over and play nice – the guerilla warfare would go on.
The Liberals cannot win the next election. With this in mind, the leadership should at least accept the will of the Liberal grassroots and block the ETS. If you can’t have government then you may as well please the base.
“I am told that the management of Santos see a Labor / Liberal negotiated ETS as a much better prospect than a Labor / Green ETS that they fear would ramp up deep cuts faster than that could improve their extraction methods to reduce emissions, thus meaning they would need to buy more permits, and couldn’t sell their free permits to fund investment.”
That is a really interesting comment. I think that the corporate interests in Australia (that probably provide a lot of the Libs funding) will be serioulsy annoyed at the Libs refusing to pass the ETS thats on the table at the moment. It is likely the best deal that corporate Australia is EVER going to get on a CPRS and the Libs are throwing it away.
For what? Their base doesnt want it? The part of their base that is opposed to this is by definition a minority of the electorate at the moment.
Even if its a significant proportion of the 43% that say they will vote for the Libs, its not that base that will get them back into Govt. When are they going to realize that they actually NEED to get some of the 57% that say they will vote for the ALP to change their minds??
And what will they do for funding if thier usual sources dry up. Dont think MT will be interested in making large donations to the party any time in the near future.
I don’t agree that the party should do what its member’s say, especially when the members are wrong.
It isn’t just Santos. Here is the CEO of Origin Energy saying they hope the CPRS passes ASAP:
http://www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness/content/2009/s2756517.htm
But that’s not the will of the Liberal grass roots dude.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/most-coalition-voters-back-ets-newspoll-20091128-jxbs.html
“According to the analysis, support for the government’s emissions trading scheme legislation is overwhelming among Coalition voters in metropolitan areas. Newspoll shows that 63 per cent of Coalition voters in the cities believe the government’s bill should be passed, while only 28 per cent think it should be opposed.”
The so called tide of grass roots support is actually a relatively small group of frankly small minded individuals whipped up into hysteria by some pretty nasty pieces of work in the media.
There’s lots of people who don’t pretend to understand climate science, and lots that have been confused by the science-vandals, but the overwhelmingly majority of people do want action on climate change and do not want the ETS blocked.
Certainly, Gusface. And accepted.
Sadly, I think, Joe may indeed may be conjured into selling his soul.
Persuaded by the devils.
I do not think that Joe had in mind to be Leader at this moment, and now or perhaps never a PM.
A columnist wrote that for the first time ever, it was observed that a priest, Bible in hand, was walking from Senator to Senator offices.
Joe should make it conditional that if he is leader, they pass the ETS, even if its after the close of the conference.
I wonder if the Bible has anything to say about honesty and integrity, that Abbott should read….
My blood ran cold as I read that.
Wanting action on CC and wanting the ETS passed is a contradiction. We need the West to cut CO2 by 40% (or probably more) by 2020 to prevent irreversable CC. Not only will passing the ETS not be a step in the right direction but it will actually make that impossible. With the ETS we can do no better than 25%, a 40% cut will be impossible. With no ETS there is still hope, still a chance that the government will take a science based approach to CC policy – the ALP seeks compromise between union and boss but there can be no compromise with Mother Nature. If we only do half of what we demands then billions of people will still die.
“what SHE demands” – although if you accept the Gaia hypothesis then ‘we’ also works.
Sorry if this has already been posted:
Newspoll 57/43
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/malcolm-turnbull-pays-the-price-for-mayhem/story-e6frg6n6-1225805158001
Heysen, as much as I’d love an ideal world where everyone thought like the Greens, the ETS as it stands now is a complex beast with a lot of levers. There is nothing stopping a future government cranking up the targets, or achieving a real reduction by other means.
I agree we need to go much further than 25% if at all technologically possible. I also think we should all go vegan. Try winning an election on that one.. sigh.
No doubt the voters of Willagee took this into account when Hsien Harper was campaigning ?
Geez.. typical flapping Australian. The put the 57/43 bit down the bottom of the page.
And they BS about MT’s leadership being at fault. Its not leadership its ideology driven by pig-ignorance. The real story is people are angry with the LP for welching on a deal. Waste of perfectly good trees. May the paper die an ignominious death.
Heysen, we can either do nothing, or what is politically possible. No, i dont think that the targets in the current ETS are good enough, but those targets can be raised (and i think they will be) in the future.
Its going to take political action to tackle climate change and i think that whats on the table now is whats possible to do now in Australia with the parliament that we currently have. But hey, given the bullsh^t going on in the Senate and the Libs at the moment, maybe its a step too far for some of the trogs that were voted in!
Yeah, I think I mentioned, Gusface, that all the contenders are Catholics.
Which is amazing, in itself.
And includes Turnbull, to my great surprise.
Now, there is no reason to think this is a sinister plot, but how is it that the Libs have so numerous a Catholic representation?
In my small sphere of the world, we Catholics are primarily Labour orientated.
Its a conspiracy! Its a conspiracy!
Oh, don’t, cud chewer.
From the Nielsen poll.
This an interesting comment on the voting public and the ETS.
Two thirds support the ETS, including 52% of COALition voters.
Note this:
” The poll finds 45 per cent of voters believe it will have a negative effect on the economy but 22 per cent believe it will have a positive effect.”
So most people believe it will have costs to the economy but support it anyway.
Finally!.. a decent bit of journalism on the ETS
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/more-than-just-hot-air-20091127-jx1v.html
New thread.