| # | % | SWING | 2PP | |
| Chew (CDP) | 1170 | 6.9% | ||
| Tinley (ALP) | 9123 | 53.8% | 1.7% | 60.0% |
| Harper (GRN) | 5177 | 30.5% | 13.8% | 40.0% |
| Georgatos (IND) | 1478 | 8.7% | ||
| TOTAL | 16948 | |||
| COUNTED: | 76.8% | |||
| BOOTHS (OF 12): | 12 |
Sunday. I’ve identified nine previous by-elections which were contested by Labor and the Greens but not the Liberals – four federal in which Labor was in opposition, and five state in which they were in government. The average result overall was a 0.11 per cent primary vote swing against Labor. In the state by-elections it was 0.9 per cent against Labor; in the federal by-elections it was 0.88 per cent to Labor. Six of the results were worse for Labor than Willagee, while only three were better.
However, I’d argue that one of these by-elections didn’t fit the mould. That was the Isaacs federal by-election in 2000, caused by the death of Greg Wilton. All the others were like Willagee in that they were caused by the voluntary mid-term departure of the sitting member, which demonstrably leads voters to be unhappy with the party concerned. Sure enough, Isaacs was Labor’s best result out of the 10, with their primary vote increasing 8.1 per cent. Take that out of the equation and Labor on average suffered a 1.14 per cent swing overall, or 1.53 per cent against when limited to the federal by-elections conducted while they were in opposition. Only two of eight results were better for Labor than Willagee, against six worse.
8.19pm. It’s in. With the notional two-party result with all booths counted plus (I presume) the evening’s supply of postals and pre-polls, the WAEC’s notional 2CP result is 60.53-39.47. My rough yardstick for the evening had been 50-30-10-10, so Labor can feel pleased, particularly with the psychologically important achievement of having improved their primary vote. My expectation of a Greens primary vote of 30 per cent factored in that it had been an unhappy campaign for them, but their 30.6 per cent is nonetheless a reasonable result that again demonstrates Liberal voters’ willingness to vote tactically. I’m told the Gerry Georgatos campaign had a fairly low profile at polling booths, which probably helps explain the surprising fact that the Greens got more preferences than Labor despite both minor candidates directing against them on HTV cards. Much of his support would have come from Liberals parking their vote with the only available independent and following their normal habit of putting Labor last, and he equally has a support base among natural Greens sympathisers.
8.04pm. I gather we’re still awaiting one booth’s notional 2CP count, and that will be it for the evening.
7.52pm. To clarify, the WAEC’s “2CP count” obviously refers to the full distribution of preferences, which will not be conducted until all the votes are in. They would do better to call it that.
7.45pm. Final two booths, Coolbellup Primary School and Southern Districts Senior Citizens Centre, have reported, respectively giving Labor a relatively poor and relatively good result.
7.43pm. Looks like the Greens are doing quite a bit better on preferences than either I or Antony Green had estimated. With real figures to play with, my 2PP figure for Labor has gone down from 63.0 per cent to 60.4 per cent.
7.37pm. The WAEC have outsmarted me. I had been hitting refresh on their “two-candidate preferred” page and coming up with nothing. It turns out they have a separate page called “notional distribution of preferences”. I will be interested to learn what the distinction between these two concepts is. No polling booth breakdown is offered.
7.33pm. The Greens might have spoken too soon in claiming victory there – 306 to 297 in favour of Tinley. Nonetheless, it’s given them their biggest primary vote swing of 23.0 per cent. Continuing the trend of Fremantle, evidently a lot of Liberals are happy to thumb their nose at Labor by parking their votes with the Greens.
7.32pm. Anglican Church of the Holy Cross Hall in Melville added.
7.25pm. Labor primary vote up slightly at Samson Primary School; just keeping their nose in front in the race to improve on their 2008 primary vote.
7.24pm. Samson Primary School added.
7.19pm. Greens Twitter feed reports they have won the Anglican Church of the Holy Cross Hall, which presumably means on the primary vote. This is Labor’s weakest and the Liberals’ strongest booth in the electorate. The other strong Liberal booth is the just reported Melville Senior High School – with a lot of slack to be taken up here there were solid primary vote swings for both Labor and Greens.
7.18pm. Melville Senior High School and Southwell Primary School added.
7.15pm. Labor vote down 5.1 per cent in Hilton, their weakest result yet.
7.13pm. Hilton Primary School and 933 pre-polls added.
7.08pm. East Hamilton Hill the first polling booth to give the Greens a single figure primary vote swing – however, this was a particularly poor booth for the Liberals, so there was less slack to be taken up. Labor down 2.3 per cent; touch and go whether they’ll break even.
7.07pm. East Hamilton Hill Primary School added. Still no real 2PP results.
7.02pm. Southern Districts Senior Citizens Centre (Drive-in) sees a lot more business this time around – 126 votes compared to 18.
6.59pm. Labor down slightly in both, Greens up 13.0 per cent and 17.9 per cent.
6.58pm. Caralee Community School and North Lake Senior Campus added.
6.52pm. Phoenix Primary School in – Labor down 3.6 per cent, Greens up 11.7 per cent.
6.48pm. All three sources have Labor up on the primary vote, though by wildly varying amounts. Same goes for the Greens – if their increase in Palmyra from 16.4 per cent 35.8 per cent is typical of the polling booth results, they will make up a lot of ground from the present scoreline.
6.47pm. 1658 postal votes added (this won’t be all of them).
6.46pm. Palmyra Primary School booth added.
6.35pm. A note of explanation. Vote numbers and the percentage figures to their right are raw votes. The swing and 2PP figures are derived through booth matching, so Tinley’s primary vote from special institutions and hospitals is 22.4 per cent higher than Carpenter’s was. The 2PP figure is based on a guesstimate that Liberal preferences would have gone 80-20 in favour of the Greens in 2008, and that this time CDP preferences will go 70-30 to Labor and Georgatos’s will split 50-50. On that basis, there has been a 25.2 per cent swing to Labor from special institutions and hospitals in Labor-versus-Greens terms. The CDP and Georgatos preference splits I’m using will be superseded by real preference splits when notional two-party figures start to come in.
6.31pm. Special institutions and hospitals are in. Good enough for me – I’m calling it for Tinley.
6.10pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the Willagee by-election count. First figures should be through in about 15 minutes or so.
136 Comments
I don’t think anyone could seriously think the ALP is at risk here. Good luck to all bar the CDP :p
Are those numbers you have up there from pre-polls?
Oh OK, they’re gone now.
Willliam,
Where are you getting the figures from – nothing on WAEC/ALP site, bar Antony’s commentry.
Great, at least you could’ve mentkioned they were test figures.
I presume they were just a test to make sure it worked. The magical multiples of 100 should have given that much away
Christ, they were up for about two seconds. A mistake, obviously.
From Antony’s page:
#8
Heh.
I noticed that one too.
William, are you getting your figures direct from the WAEC like Antony is ?
No, I’m not. Perhaps I should look into that.
Email Antony and ask them to forward them to you
looking pretty even at the moment
They’re sending me a tab delimited text file which is pretty meaningless to read. No totals but it does have the booth by booth figures to process.
My tip (better late than never I guess)
ALP 51
Green 38
Ind 6
CDP 5
TPP Labor 57%
first figures on WAEC site:
Polling Place CHEW – CDP TINLEY – ALP HARPER – GRN GEORGATOS – IND Informal Total Votes
Special Institutions, Hospitals & Remotes 20 153 24 22 14 233
Total Polling Place Votes 20 153 24 22 14 233
all over.
well that was fun.
That’s interesting – the hospitals are normally a rusted-on Lib vote, so the majority of that vote went to Tinley.
Is the total votes/turnout figure on Antony’s graphs correct? That’s more than 10,000 people that didn’t vote. Am I reading this wrong?
According to the 2008 results the Green vote in Special institutions has gone up from 16 to 24
Palmyra Primary Scholl Booth:
Palmyra Primary School 13 234 167 35 18 467
Sorry, that figure’s just for votes counted right?
we can all read the waec site frank
From WAEC:
Candidate Votes Counted % Valid Votes
CHEW – CDP 165 7.21%
TINLEY – ALP 1,398 61.07%
HARPER – GRN 489 21.36%
GEORGATOS – IND 237 10.35%
Total Valid Votes 2,289 100.00%
Informal 69 2.93%
Total 2,358
Antony has Early votes on his site.
The interesting thing is the breakdown – the Palmyra booth is about what I would expect, while the postals are truly diabolical for the Greens, and a lot higher for everyone else. Postals are usually bad for the Greens, but being outpolled by CDP and Georgatos combined is something else entirely.
The question is which is a more reliable indicator.
Antony’s projected 2PP graph is looking a little strange
my tip-
Labor 52%
Greens 32.5%
CDP 6.5%
IND 9%
2PP
Labor 64%
Greens 36%
Re Postals, no doubt the ALP sent out their application forms as soon as the poll was declared and no doubt the Hearld coverag of the split was fresh in their minds.
From ABC Elections:
ABC Elections ABCElections
#willagee 10.2% counted, ALP Predicted 2CP=71.7% results at http://bit.ly/7IQStW 8 minutes ago from web
Evidently Antony’s preference estimates favour Labor a lot more than mine. No actual 2PP figures in yet.
My belief is the postals probably had less to do with the split than the demographic – what types of voters put in postals typically? A lot of people work on Saturdays.
Gerry G’s best Booth is Caralee Community School
Phoenix is an interesting booth. This was a great booth for Labor in the last election. The Greens have made a big gain in this Labor heartland – only 67 votes behind Tinley.
Antony has just called it for Tinley
Southern Distrocts Drive In Booth is in with more than 15 votes
What’s the booth in eastern Coolbellup? There’s a lot of unofficial student housing for Murdoch there so that would be an interesting one to watch.
Ex ABC TV News, shot of Greens HTV had Gerry G at No2.
Whoa, sorry. My maths is terrible obviously
From Antony:
Woo Hoo
Not enough dear Hsien
Labor will win by around 15%-20% 2PP. Could have been a very diifferent story if Georgatos had given preferences to the Greens. It astounds me that a person who had been pre selected for the Greens, has decided to give his preferences to Labor :S
Looks like a normal sort of result for a seat like Willigee.
Now Frank next week when the Greens poll no better than they have tonight will you or i be sending them the tissues
That doesn’t astound me too much – one puts one’s vote where one is most confident it will be used wisely. He obviously didn’t feel his votes should be directed to the Greens or the CDP.
I firmly believe true independents should declare open vote preferences, and I did that in mine when I had the chance, but others will likely disagree.
You can – my gift was that nice little expose on IC
I don’t think there was any real doubt that Tinley would be returned, but what does this mean in the context of WA politics? Obviously the makeup of the chamber won’t change, but is it a bad result for the Premier there?
Well tinley makes up from the defection of Catania to the Nationals, so their chances in 2012 are a bit better.
Notional Preferences are up
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/2009_Willagee_By-Election/District_of_Willagee/notional_distribution_of_preferences.php
Gee William, Bradfield will be a bastard to keep updating next week
Frank – they’re still one member down regardless, as it’s a Labor -> Labor by-election.
I wonder if the Feral look of Hsien turned off Liberal voters, as opposed to the conservative looking Adele Carles ?
Frank, I have the utmost respect for you and have always read your posts with interest, but you need to control yourself. You are only making yourself look bad.
PS fyi I am not a Green voter.
The result is pretty much meaningless with respect to Barnett. A good evening for Eric Ripper – a bad result would have damaged him, and he hasn’t had one.
You set a very low bar on “feral looking”, Frank.
You obviously didn’t watch the videos
Frank
Be gracious in victory.
nuff said
But the Green supporters weren’t in Fremantle.
Well done Labor – a ripper result.
That’s their problem.
You’re way better than that.
Any federal implications in this result?
Glad that Peter Tinley got up, a quality candidate!
Coolbellup Boooth Tinley got 1,175 votes – his best booth.
Antony on Preferences :
William, the difference between the notional 2CP and the actual 2CP is that the notional 2CP is the count they do on election night between the two candidates that are favoured to finish 1st and 2nd by the electoral commission. The actual 2CP is the full distribution of preferences conducted once all the votes have been counted.
In absolute terms, but in relative ones it was his worst – Labor vote down 6.7 per cent.
I’d agree – Hsien is many things, and I think we got a much better representative out of this election, but I would not call her “feral looking”.
How did Georgatas do at Coolbellup?
No doubt that’s it. But surely the appopriate name for that count would be “full distribution of preferences”, or some such. Every other time I’ve seen an electoral commission refer to their 2CP count, they meant the notional one.
Nothing special – 7.3 per cent.
Hsien Harper from an updated Perth Now article:
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,26413737-2761,00.html
And they wonder why people attack the Greens:
How dare they!
O but Frank today Bob1234 conceeded that the Greens only wanted the balance of power so if they think doubling their vote in a by-election without both major parties is a sign that they are going places then we know they have been spending a little too much time hanging around the likes of Minchin!
P.S if they have been hanging out with him then that could be considered a fair excuse.
Liar. I said all I want for the Greens is the balance of power.
Bob1234! you have jsut repeated that all you want is for the Greens to have the BoP! and i said Bob1234! said the Greens objective was the BoP
They sure do look similar!
No they don’t. Bob is not ‘The Greens’, therefore it’s not the same thing. If all The Greens wanted was the balance of power they wouldn’t bother wasting resources fighting by-elections.
Okay i withdraw the comment!
BTW thanks heaps to William once again for excellent coverage of this campaign
ABC Story on ALP’s win, inclding audio of Tinley & Harper.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/29/2756442.htm
The West’s story of the Win.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/6526811/tinley-wins-in-willagee/
ABC TV News footage.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2009/11/28/2756407.htm
I have to disagree there. The BoP theory applies to both houses.
Peter Tinley’s Victory Speech
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8HUbD_TJD4
Does it disappoint any WA Labor supporters that Labor has suffered a reduced margin? It seems Labor will only hold the seat with a 10% margin now, and it wasn’t even against the Liberals, it was against the Greens!!!
Bob – there is no doubt that it will turn back into a Labor/Lib contest at the next election. Ontop of that a Primary vote of 53.8% wont worry ALP members in the slightest.
I agree.
It’s a safe Labor seat. Labor won without prefs last election as they did in this by-election.
The Liberals, who got 31% of the primary vote last time, didn’t stand. As a result, all four candidates received a primary vote swing. Greens on 13%, ind Green on 9%, CDP on 7%, Labor on a measly 2%.
And the margin that Labor holds the seat on has been considerably cut, with the Greens on ~40% 2pp, something the Liberals couldn’t do.
Any Labor hack who thinks this result was good needs to take a good hard look at their contradictory Labor hackery lines.
BTW I hate the Liberals, and in a first past the post system i’d be voting Labor. Just incase you get the wrong idea.
Bob, is this really the best you can do? Pretty feeble if so.
Labor’s 2pp is typically bolstered by a strong flow of Greens preferences. They didn’t that strong flow of Greens preferences this time. In fact, they didn’t get any Greens preferences at all. Can you work out why?
Bob is upset his beloved Mother Hsien didn’t cause an upset – The Greens could pre-selet a serial killer and he’d stl support him.
Bob’s reminded me on an Alan Ramsey column from a few years back that took a look at the electoral history of a couple of rural Liberals.
The likes of Sharman Stone and Sussan Ley first won their seats from the Nationals, with margins of something like 51-49. At subsequent elections with no National candidate, they were reelected with margins like 75-25 against Labor.
Ramsey quite bizarrely took this as evidence of the tremendous personal appeal these MPs must have developed within their electorate.
There was also no Liberal candidate/votes
I don’t take much more than a fleeting interest in interstate state by-elections. Occasionally an aspect of them might interest me for a while.
I also note Frank that you said “… Greens candidate Hsien Harper having an indecipherable collection of letters parading as a name”. That’s pretty low for someone who claims to hold Labor values including tolerance of the diversity of people.
And funnily enough, 51-49 makes a seat more marginal than 75-25, regardless of what parties and candidates represent what numbers
You fool, That was Inside Covder’s descfription – not mine.
Learn how to read.
Correct – that was the Inside Cover journalist, not a quote from here.
And Hsien must be disappointed she only got 30% compared to her 34% in that bastion of the far left, Murdoch.
My apologies Frank.
I think she did pretty well considering she got a 13% swing, with an independent Green taking another 9% of the vote. Willagee was never going to fall to the Greens.
I think the greens should be pretty damn pleased with that. Sure its not winning it, but nobody really expected that outcome except perhaps the most optimistic. It would seem that on preference distribution, there really wasn’t much in the way of ‘vote splitting’ from the independents.
And frank, comments about the way Hsien speaks or looks is bloody appaling. You’d think a labor supporter would have worked out that sexist nonsense like that just isn’t appropriate to the modern age anymore. Grow up.
Either way congrats to all candidates. You too Gerry.
It is fair game, just as Greens Supporters criticised Peter Tinley for being a Military person and other vile accusatons about being a killing machine.
Glass Jaw anyone ?
The only numbers that matter for Labor here, going forward are the primary vote of 53.8% (boosted a bit further by postals? probably) and the turnout numbers (which indicates that they were pretty successful in their ‘get out the vote’ efforts).
The next election will indicate whether the Greens really made any inroads in Willagee on Labor votes and what percentage of Liberal votes boosted the Labor primary. By that stage Tinley will have had three years in the job and his performance will have an affect.
Does any one else see the blatant Greens lie in this article?
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21498,26413737-2761,00.html?from=public_rss
Another story I read had Hsien saying “30-40″ was what they were hoping for. One of them has a typo.
Oz,
“A victory for us was to poll 35 to 40 per cent in primary votes and from what we can tell we did that,’’ she said.
That is a direct quote.
It’s possible that this statement was made earlier in the night before the count had concluded. Actually, I’d say it’s likely.
It’s not really plausible that she would say that after the final result. I don’t know what advantage you think she would be trying to gain by saying that her vote was 5% more than it actually was.
It is quite plausible however that a News Ltd. article would place a quote in an article out of context. Not for nefarious reasons, just because journalists are overworked and tend not to care about fact checking on dead-rubber by-elections.
Sam,
That is a direct quote.
Bob, come on.
“I think she did pretty well considering she got a 13% swing”
… when the party that got almost 31% last time didn’t run at all. It means they picked up less than half of the votes up for grabs, and Labor actually *gained* votes on 2008.
Are we forgetting there was an independent Green with 9% of the vote?
Green candidates picked up a 22% swing at this by-election.
Labor picked up a 2% swing.
Swinging voters between Labor and Liberal decide elections, so Labor should be doing better than a 2% swing with no Liberal candidate.
Bob at that point i stopped reading
do yourself a favour and get a calculator,preferably Bolta’s
I’ve identified nine previous by-elections which were contested by Labor and the Greens but not the Liberals – four federal in which Labor was in opposition, and five state in which they were in government. The average result overall was a 0.11 per cent primary vote swing against Labor. In the state by-elections it was 0.9 per cent against Labor; in the federal by-elections it was 0.88 per cent to Labor. Six of the results were worse for Labor than Willagee, while only three were better.
However, I’d argue that one of these by-elections didn’t fit the mould. That was the Isaacs federal by-election in 1999, caused by the death of Greg Wilton. All the others were like Willagee in that they were caused by the voluntary mid-term departure of the sitting member, which demonstrably leads voters to be unhappy with the party concerned. Sure enough, Isaacs was Labor’s best result out of the 10, with their primary vote increasing 8.1 per cent. Take that out of the equation and Labor on average suffered a 1.14 per cent swing overall, or 1.53 per cent against when limited to the federal by-elections conducted while they were in opposition. Only two of eight results were better for Labor than Willagee, against six worse.
Oh why do you ruin the greens fun and fantasy with FACTS
damn you and your adherence to telling the truth
Just out of interest, William, which seats were these?
To be totally fair to the Greens, I’d suggest that Marrickville, Cunningham, Albert Park, Williamstown and obviously Freo are naturally much “Greener” seats than Willagee.
Willagee would probably be best compared to something like Maroubra, or maybe the federal seat of Holt, I’m assuming.
Congratulations to every candidate – to Gerry, Hsien and Peter. I didn’t want Henry to do well but congratulations to all.
Peter can’t do worse than Alan.
To help people with your, Gerry did not do a HTV therefore he did not direct preferences to anyone, he only nominally directed them when asked by the press who he would preference. He paid for the campaign out of his pocket and I know it financially hurt him as he isn’t rich and it was too much to ask him to pay for HTV and he had knocked back funding and he didn’t want to determine the outcome in this way.
Gerry also pulled everyone off that wanted to help him on the polling day as he had campaigned the two weeks before all alone and wanted to leave it at that and see what one person could achieve. He was the only person at the polling booths scooting from one to the next and without any HTV. He let people make their own minds up, that is why the Greens out polled Labor on preferences! So Gerry didn’t direct anything. The Greens must have had a 100 people out there, Labor 280 it’s said, and red and green we’re flying everywhere, the CDP had about 40 out there and Gerry had just himself, so fucking wow.
I think it is fantastic he out polled the CDP on primaries and to achieve 1,478 votes is big for a one person team. 1,478 verse 5,100 verse 9,000 is incredible. He must have also polled the second preference at about 80%, interesting to get that information.
In a two party race with a big show from all Labor did well to get 54% and the Greens shouldn’t be too disappointed with 30% because although they actually did badly when you analyse it, they can argue that they improved by 12% from the last one. Interesting stat is Gerry polled 8.71% single handedly and in the 2005 Willagee election, the Greens with Hsien again polled 8.7% as a whole party effort!
I am reminded of Gerry’s election result prediction two weeks ago:
Labor – 55%
Greens – 30%
Gerry – 9%
CDP – 6%
He’s good isn’t he!
Congrats methinks to all and have a good rest.
Frank A.
MDMConnell – Willagee contains Palmyra and Hilton which have increasingly become Green-friendly suburbs and would I’d reckon represent 1/4 to 1/3 of the electorate. The rest is more typically working class with a definite ethnic flavour.
Bob – calling him an “independent Green” is as delusional as the Greens rep who tried to include the vote I gained in Vic Park in 2006 with the Greens. (I ran an open preference ticket and I had no deals with the three very diverse parties who gave me No.3 on their tickets.) It ignores the fact that Georgatas ran a public campaign against the Greens and directed voters to Labor on his HTV.
“It is fair game, just as Greens Supporters criticised Peter Tinley for being a Military person and other vile accusatons about being a killing machine.
Glass Jaw anyone ?”
No Frank, getting smug about greens supporters talking about Tinleys background doesn’t give you a licence to be a sexist pig at all, and dude, protip here: Appending “Glass jaw” onto your every post doesn’t give you a knockout argument, it just makes you sound like a boring and repetitive troll.
“It’s possible that this statement was made earlier in the night before the count had concluded. Actually, I’d say it’s likely.”
According to the article , just after the count started, so presumably she was going on the opinions of her people at the booths. Pretty close guess if you factor out own-team enthusiasm I’d say. 4% out for the primary and spot on when you factor in preferences.
@109 Gerry pulled off everyone who wanted to help him? He must have RSI . . .
Stupid political parties, getting volunteers to help on election day. Why would they want to win 30,40, 50% of the vote when they could get 9% like Gerry did. That’s so glorious and single handedly he has changed the face of WA politics. He is indeed the next Bob Brown.
William, what was the average number of candidates in those by-elections you were comparing this with? I know in some of them there were a lot of minor party candidates. You’d expect Labor to do better on primaries where they only had to compete with the the Greens and two others than where they had to compete with the Greens plus seven, particularly if many of those seven had particular niches they appealed to.
That’s not to say I think this is a bad result for the ALP, I don’t. I’m just not sure you’re comparing apples with apples.
Build a Bridge and call Wikndscreen O’Briens – no wonder I despise the Greens if their average supporter is as sanctimonius and pious as you.
Oh and Queen Adele will be a one poll wonder.
108
Seats such as Melbourne (federal), Melbourne (state), Richmond, Brunswick, Northcote, Prahran, Sydney (federal), Sydney (state) (in absence of Clover Moore), Balmain, Grayndler and probably Heffron should be on the Greener than Willagee list. Williamstown I would say is less Green than Willagee as I had a lower Green vote an the previous general and by-elections respectively.
http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/stateby2007resultWilliamstownDistrict.html
http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/state2006resultWilliamstownDistrict.html
I’ve never voted greens in my life Frank. This is the thing, your rabid hate for the left has blinded you into thinking that if someones not voting Labor they must be therefore an enemy to be exterminated.
But heres the gig, I was NOLS until it stopped making sense to be NOLS. And I was never a green.
But you still think what went down with Gerry had something was about the election don’t you?
Pull the other one – it plays GREENsleaves.
ugh. Bungle grammar.
I mean “You still think what went down with Gerry had something to do with the election, don’t you?”
“Pull the other one – it plays GREENsleaves.”
What the hell is wrong with you dude?
Nothing wrong with me – it is your double standards and bhypocfrisy -p it is fine to attack Labor and Green, but if I DARE criticise the Sacred Green, you go ballistic.
it’s called Pot meet Kettle.
When did you ever see me attack labor? I’m a fecking labor voter you idiot.
You could’ve fooled me.
Frank A…. is that you Gerry?
Tom the 1st / MDM: In the true spirit of Perth, we do things slightly differently in the west, so comparisons are difficult. Fremantle’s the port, so it’s equivalent in Melbourne would be Williamstown; I imagine that makes Willagee like Altona or Footscray. Imagine if Melbourne’s epicentre of Green voting was the western suburbs, instead of Fitzroy and Brunswick? That’s Perth for ya.
Melbourne and Sydney’s trendy inner cities are all covered by ALP/Grn marginals (or Clover Moore); here, I guess you’d call the inner city the three seats of Perth, Mt Lawley and Maylands, and they’re two safe ALP/Lib and one marginal Lib (Michael Sutherland, who needs to get booted next election for being a fool). The Greens get an OK vote in those seats, but not to the point of winning; Perth in particular is probably John Hyde’s for as long as he’s around. Anyway, because the rise of Adele Carles had a lot to do with protests against housing developments on the coast south of Fremantle, I’ll stick with my long-term prediction that the second Greens seat in the lower house will be Cockburn.
There’s something in that, but not much. It’s true that there were few candidates at this by-election, but there were even fewer at the 2008 election, so the minor candidate noise in my primary vote swing figure is very low. No doubt in a few of the other cases Labor lost a few votes to minor candidates they wouldn’t have lost otherwise, but I don’t take the view that it would have amounted to all that much. None of the by-elections had particularly strongly performing minor candidates – Kororoit for example isn’t included because there was a Liberal candidate.
Um, which party did he hold preselection with before being dumped for another candidate?
The Greens.
frank
I think the person meant to say they liked to feck? labor.
By the tone of their posts they only fecked? themselves
#125
I recall people talking up the Scarborough as very Green-friendly territory, in contrast to the blue-rinse Lib electorates surrounding it. Any thoughts on their chances there?
I’ve marshalled my local knowledge (I grew up in the area and continue to have family there) to note a slight tendency to that effect in the past. However, there’s really only a few percentage points in it. There is no prospect of them ever winning the seat.
Would it be people mainly opposed to High Rise Developments like Observation City ?
The strongest Green votes in Perth at the State election were in Fremantle (by a mile), Hilton (part of Willagee), a belt stretching from [[West Leederville through Leederville, North Perth, part of Mt Lawley and Maylands to Bayswater]], the Perth Hills area either side of Gt Eastern Highway, and the suburb of Bassendean. Scarborough (not far from where I live) didn’t even really rate. The highest vote by far north of Scarb Beach Road was the Girrawheen part of the Glendale booth in Hamersley, and that may simply have reflected the fact there was only three candidates on the ballot. Outside of Perth, Margaret River/Yallingup, Denmark and Broome were the only interesting places for the Greens.
For comparison -
In 2005, the only bits over 18% for the Greens were in Leederville, West Leederville, Northbridge, Shenton Park (both booths), UWA, Cottesloe, Mosman Park and the district of Fremantle generally. In 2001, only Fremantle, E Fremantle and S Fremantle, plus Darlington and (strangely) Hope Valley near Kwinana. In 1996 (prepare for broken record) – Fremantle, N Fremantle and S Fremantle.
Federally, exactly the same areas light up – broadly, Fremantle/E/N/S and Beaconsfield and Hilton, Shenton Park, Subiaco, Northbridge and Highgate, Darlington and UWA.
(Sorry to post a third time – had an afterthought)
I’m not sure why Darlington stands out over and above other Perth Hills suburbs Green vote wise.
All the Arty Farty types live there, along with Stoneville.
Hope Valley and Wattleup got deregistered as townsites about that time, due to being so heavily polluted they figured the best thing to do with the place was to doze all the houses and turn the land into more industrial area. It’ll all be stuff serving the new outer harbour in another 10-15 years time. Maybe that’s what pushed the Green vote up?