Liberal MPs have been given plenty to chew on by polling agencies as they prepare for tomorrow’s leadership moment of truth. The Australian have unleashed Newspoll a day earlier: it finds Labor’s two-party lead up to 57-43 from 56-44 last fortnight and 52-48 in the famous rogue poll of a month ago. The Fairfax broadsheets have also seized the day by sending Nielsen out into the field a week ahead of schedule, finding Labor’s lead unchanged from three weeks ago at 56-44. Both polls were conducted on Friday and Saturday. (UPDATE: Dennis Shanahan has been in touch to point out that Newspoll continued to survey throughout Sunday, with The Australian releasing the result at the end of the day.) Interestingly, Nielsen has the Greens vote up four points to 13 per cent, with Labor down three to 42 per cent and the Coalition down one to 37 per cent. We’ll have to wait and see if this is reflected in Newspoll.
On the question of who should be Liberal leader, Joe Hockey is on 33 per cent in Newspoll and 36 per cent in Nielsen; Malcolm Turnbull is on 30 per cent and 32 per cent; and Tony Abbott is on 19 per cent and 20 per cent. There was less accord between the two pollsters when respondents were asked to choose between the two declared candidates, Turnbull and Abbott: Newspoll had Turnbull with a slender lead of 42-41, but Nielsen had it at 51-37. Both Nielsen and a small sample (400) Galaxy poll published in yesterday’s Sunday Telegraph indicate Hockey is particularly favoured among Coalition voters, his lead among them respectively registered at 41-27 and 39-25. Galaxy’s total result was somewhat more favourable for Turnbull than the others, putting him equal with Hockey on 29 per cent and ahead of Abbott on 22 per cent.
Another theme to emerge is that Turnbull’s stocks have risen among Labor voters and slumped among Coalition voters. Hockey’s aforementioned 41-27 Nielsen lead compared with a 35-36 deficit three weeks ago, while Turnbull’s approval rating has gone from 57 per cent to 45 per cent among Coalition voters and from 24 per cent to 39 per cent among Labor voters. Overall, Turnbull’s ratings have risen slightly: Newspoll has his approval up two to 36 per cent per cent, while Nielsen has it up four to 41 per cent. His disapproval is steady at 50 per cent from Newspoll and up two to 51 per cent from Nielsen. However, his preferred prime minister rating has slumped to a new low of 14 per cent (two points beneath his Utegate nadir), no doubt reflecting the fact that Labor voters have driven his improved personal ratings.
On the question of an emissions trading scheme, Nielsen had 49 per cent supporting a delay until after Copenhagen and 39 per cent wanting it introduced as soon as possible. Galaxy advanced only the former proposition for a result of 60 per cent. Newspoll found 53 per cent supported Turnbull’s backing of the legislation against 26 per cent opposed, but there was a wide gulf between Labor and Coalition supporters, the latter opposing the move 48 per cent to 35 per cent. Nielsen had overall support for an emissions trading scheme at 66 per cent.
On top of all that, The Weekend Australian reported breakdowns on a question Newspoll posed in September regarding the scheme, which found 63 per cent of metropolitan Coalition voters believing the government’s bill should be passed against 28 per cent, whereas in rural areas the figures were 50 per cent and 41 per cent.
UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 58-42, up from 55-45 in the past two weeks. However, a question on prime ministerial approval has Kevin Rudd’s “strongly approve” rating down five points to a new low of 9 per cent, with “strongly disapprove” up two points to a new high of 15 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings are surprisingly static, although mildly approve is down three points to 23 per cent and mildly disapprove is up three to 33 per cent. Joe Hockey is clearly favoured as Liberal leader 22 per cent to Turnbull’s 14 per cent with 9 per cent for Tony Abbott. The partisan divide here is less sharp than the other pollsters.
1,767 Comments
the polls are pointing to the beginning of the killing season.
I note that the so-called gentleman’s agreement between Newspoll and Nielson to not release on the same day has been waived. Not entirely surprising but definitely contradicts what was touted as the reason for withholding poll numbers a couple of weeks ago.
An interesting few days ahead. An article in the SMH confirms my suspicion that the Government will find it extremely hard to guillotine debate today and after that… all bets are off.
Ah, yes; thought Newspoll would do an overnighter and would release early if it favoured the contenders. So 2pp is 57/43 and Lib support is lower than a third.
Still can’t see why Dutton, given his electorate – and a fair whack of the Q LNP – are far from being fans. After this, McFarlane, one of the LNP’s senior figures, won’t be in the Dutton Fan Club.
So, whatever happen from now on, the Coalition will go to the next election as Climate Change deniers, heading for a landslide of epic proportions.
In a couple of weeks, we’ll have Copenhagen targets; and they don’t seem likely to reflect the Coalition’s stance.
Dear god, who are the 35-37% of people still voting for the Liberal party??
Looks like the Nats are thinking of leaving the coalition.
[The National Party says public support for its anti-emissions trading scheme stance has gone from a trickle to a torrent.
Brad Henderson is the party's federal director.
"Particularly in the last fortnight, it has developed into a torrent to the point where we are taking literally thousands of calls on a daily basis in each of our MPs' and senators' offices," he said.
"If we had our time again perhaps we would look at [having candidates in the seats of Bradfield and Higgins].
“We’ll have to sit down now and consider whether we do offer people the choice of supporting the Nationals in other areas.”]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/30/2756756.htm?section=justin
It just keeps getting better.
Wow, Ru, pre-selection brawls in the offing! Shades of Joh’s 2-way contests.
Tho I guess if you’re pwned by a Hinze-like King Coal, you’re back to the White shoe brigade, and destroying the Libs might become more of a priority than knocking off the ALP.
Joh’s Ghost for Canberra?
If Hockey runs and wins, you really need to question his political judgement and personal character.
Politically, why would you lead a Party that is heading for a train wreck.
Personally, you will be forever branded as the puppet of the looney Right and John Howard. That photo of him leaving John Howard and with John Howard in the background leeering is enough to condemn him.
Pity we have to wait until February for the next round of QT; tho by then, the government’s front bench will have refined “welchers”, “deal breakers”, “not a man of his word”, “more positions than the Karma Sutra”, “Weather vane”, check watch, ask, “I know what your position was yesterday; but what’s it today?”, “All you need for the Liberals to welch on a deal is for Shock Jocks and Bolt to beat up a scare campaign, and the Deniers spambots go into action. You know the emails. They start, ‘Though I’ve voted Liberal (or ALP, or whatever) all my life, I will never vote for you again’” etc to slogans as funny as they are deadly.
The CPRS now depends on whether enough moderate Libs break ranks and either vote with the government or ignore the division bells (probably the latter). It must be very tempting to the ones who know they won’t get a ministry in the New Order, might not survive a DD election, and will spend the rest of their Parliamentary career on the Opposition benches. In Q, the Nats will want more than one winnable seat; after all, who dominated the LNP!
All this because some Liberals hate Rudd enough to want to spite him at Copenhagen and are prepared to wreck their own party and its electoral chances!
Like a pack of Year 9 scrags!
What’s the bet this thread weill go past 4000 ?
weill = will
Having handed out how-to-vote cards at a few elections for two different parties, I would say that around one third of the Australian electorate are psychologicaly or intellectually incapable of chosing a new party. When they are congregated so that they comprise more than 50% of a single seat, that seat is “safe”. There are also a lot more who are too apathetic to change. I would say no more than 30% of voters really think about it and vote accordingly.
Yet “sources” are saying Hockey has made up his mind and will run. Who are these “sources”?
If Rudd wants to improve his popularity again, he could start by not doing any more things like this:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/believers-45m-atheists-nil-20091127-jw77.html
As one of Australia’s many atheists, I too wish Rudd would stop using my tax money to buy votes from a religeous minority who are fond of talking about values but usually prefer cash.
The irony is I think that decisions like this cost Labor more votes than they win. A lot of the religeous fundys are in the 35-37% of voters Dewgong mentioned that always vote Liberal.
Yes, it is now a blind hatred,as well as wrecking their party they are also willing to damage Australia if they feel it denies Rudd any kudos.
Some in labor had a hatred of Howard, but not as blind, widespread or unstable as the libs hatred.
Just listening to RN and Fran K. online up in the UK. Fran K. continues to be a mouth piece for the Liberals.
I don’t think the Libs will cop the full fallout of the ETS until they actually make a decision on who to support and the fate of the ETS. At the moment, both pro-ETS and anti-ETS people can back the Libs in the hope they’ll do what the person hopes. Once they make a decision on the ETS, the Libs could well lose some more support.
As for the polls, I think Labor should take note of the fact that it HASN”T seen a bounce in its favour. The majority of Australians want at ETS. If it is even perceived that Rudd has deferred that to politically wedge his opponents, he will lose popularity. If the coaltion rejects the ETS and he doesn’t hold a DD for tactical reasons, again, Rudd will lose popularity and deservedly so. The ETS and Workchoices were the ONLY major differences in policy that Rudd took to the last election. He is expected to deliver on them in this government.
Go figure, yesterday Fergusson was escorted from a public swimming pool full of kiddies. Today the government gives money so that the filth in the church can get closer to kiddies. If parents want their kids to get close to filth they can always take them to church. There is a reason why so few kiddies go to church now.
castle
Recently a friend of mine was killed crossing the road trying to help his daughter, whose car had broken down.
He was a school chaplain, he was universally loved in the community, he would help anyone in need without question.
Your comment is filth.
Socrates #13
I agree. My son attended a government school (late Joh era) infested by fundies (the big 4 – RC, Anglican, Uniting & Lutheran – were far less aggressive) who had themselves invited as school chaplins. They targeted vulnerable kids trying to cope with home problems like family break-up, alcoholism, domestic violence etc. One successfully convinced a group that the world would end in 1993, so they were wasting their time swotting – something some resented bitterly after 1993.
Last week, the ALP announced it will extend Howard’s school chaplaincy program, adding $42.8 million to the $165 million already committed by taxpayers.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/believers-45m-atheists-nil-20091127-jw77.html
Keeping the chaplaincy program going is a cheaper option than taking them all away and then having to replace them with secular school counselors. And it is a gesture to the religious swingers.
WorkChoices addicts who stand to directly benefit from ripping off others. Racists, rednecks, CEOs, the senile, etc.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/
Hockey set to turn on Turnbull more like it.
Socrates #17. Newspoll, at least, was taken Friday & Saturday, before her Maj’s speech was well aired on TV. If the Coalition rolls the CPRS before Copenhagen’s full airing … during the Silly Season here, when ‘real news’, as distinct from ‘gossip, crime & accident reports’, is hard to find.
OTOH, Newspoll has the Libs on 30%, Nats on 5%, so I’m guessing the former are primarily GenBluers who don’t like anything new, and the latter … well, the sort whose idea of a fine pollie is Joh-like – a Barnaby or Bob Katter. I think those figures are ‘bedrock’ and will (esp for the Libs) shift only as supporter die.
Sorry …. “when ‘real news’, as distinct from ‘gossip, crime & accident reports’, is hard to find, Copenhagen will get good coverage.
I can’t see the preferred PM figures over at OO. I know Turnbull was 14% but what was Kev?
Ltep, was waiting for this question of O’Shannasey this morning, but alas it wasnt asked. Maybe I’ll try emailing them
Socrates @ 13,
As a rusted-on Labor atheist (ex-RC), Hear! Hear!
Did I hear correctly, Bob Brown will move a motion to allow the Senate to have a day off today?
Lazy buggers.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/kingmaker-howard-gives-hockey-his-blessing-20091129-jyw5.html
It is chilling that the dead hands of Howard and Downer are raised yet again. No good can come of no good and I am disappointed that it looks as though the Slopster is going to be the Brutus.
Howard told Turnbull to move on for the good of the party?? Pot. Kettle. Black. So glad we are rid of the horrible man
No. To finish at 10 tonight and start again 10 tomorrow.
He also has stated they won’t support any Coalition moves to refer the bills to a committee inquiry.
ruawake
My sympathy about your chaplain friend. I am an atheist but have nothing against the religeous people who help others based on their faith. I am opposed to using state funds to prop any faith up though; it should be a personal choice. My remarks were more aimed at the evangelists, who I find are often quite manipulative.
entre nous
How do you know that? Has there been a corresponding drop in funding of school counsellors?
Do they fulfill the same roles? What about situations like vulnerable teenage girls who probably need advice to get a termination of pregnancy? Will a chaplain tell them that? My understanding of the chaplaincy program was that it was primarily about religeous education. If it was about counselling, what guarantee is there that religeous values won’t be inserted for community values? The two aren’t the same. If they were, we wouldn’t have religeous groups blocking legislation like voluntary euthanasia, which 80% of Australians support, but governments oppose.
Is there any polling of Rudd vs Hockey as PPM? Given the circumstances in which he will come to the leadership, and given his public persona of being amiable, affable but also ineffectual, I’m guessing he will get a reasonably good result on his performance as LOTO, but will have a terrible PPM result. I guess we’ll soon find out!
Castle at 18-to describe all people in the church as “filth” and to infer that school chaplains are all child molesters is ridiculous and disgraceful.
Howard’s real political heir is Abbott. Howard, Abbott and Minchin are setting up Hockey to kill the CPRS, and then to take the fall at the 2010 elections. Abbott will then take the leadership in time for 2013. Hockey appears to be too stupid to see how he is being used.
Did I hear that the ALP is distributing cash to Big Coal rather than taking the bold steps necessary to tackle climate change?
Lazy buggers!
Socrates
Your points are valid. No evidence to back my assertion but a half remembered interview from some time back when the pros and cons of the program were being discussed.
Was it my imagination that Fran Kelly this morning was trying to suggest that today’s polls are bad for Rudd & Labor? Yep, you all are correct, she is a mouthpiece for the Coalition. The sooner she goes on holidays and Geraldine Doogue takes over, the better!
As expected, the polls show a surge for Turnbull among Labor voters but a slump in voting intention overall. Pretty predictable.
As stated above:
The two go hand in hand.
Labor supporters are not entirely innocent in the latter. I, for one, was pleased when Howard died a death at APEC 2007, as exemplified by the Chaser stunt and Rudd’s Mandarin-speaking episode. I saw Howard trying to pull a stunt, trying to impress the plebs in Voterland with his “mates” from overseas. This was planned years in advance as the high point of the pre-election campaign. I was glad it bombed.
As to being rusted on, I could never conceive myself voting Liberal, not in a pink fit. I try to justify this to myself with rationality, but it’s just because this is the way I was brought up. I araldited in (even if stopping short of being a member of the Labor Party itself).
Having said all this, it is a very bad look for a politician (particularly if prancing around as a “statesman”) to publicly admit to these sentiments. These things should be kept to members offices and private party meetings.
So according to Michelle Gratten and Shanahack, Turnball is just meant to shut up, take his betrayal quietly, go off to the back bench and be a good little foot soldier until the next election!
UGH!
What ignoring Kyoto has cost us
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Kyoto-Protocols-coal-electricity-climate-change-pd20091130-Y9RRZ?OpenDocument&src=sph
entre nous # 26 I can’t find Rudd’s PPM rating either. One could bet it didn’t go down, and have a flutter on “too stellar to do anything else but stroke his reputed (by Libs) ego at CHOGM & Copenhagen.
Alan Jones’ Comment’ was gold this morning. Because the article in the Oz about the Libs losing 20 seats didn’t fit his agenda, the Canberra press gallery are all hacks and in Rudd’s pocket.
At least he’s consistent, the article was based of factual polling data involving ‘science’, which as we know from the AGW debate is bunkum.
I am going to join Diog in the wRONg-ness stakes. I reckon the media hacks have got it wrong and Hockey will not challenge.
“My leader” is an odd way to refer to someone you are about to roll.
Good point about the missing PPM figure. Hockey may be preferred by most as Liberal leader because of his ability to stop the unpleasant public feuding. But that is just damage control. It doesn’t mean that people see him as a serious alternative PM, which is a lot harder.
One letter writer in today’s SMH is condeming the talkback radio shockjocks, especially Alan Jones, for their campaign to blast Turnball out of the Liberal leadership.
More of the same from that tool Steve Price this morning, ie. the ETS is evil, Rudd is a fraud, today’s polls can’t be believed, Nick Minchin and his lot are heroes for saving us from an evil tax.
Don’t forget that Price’s wife works for Hockey!
What will be Sloppy Joe’s alternative policy!
Presumably something rubberstamped by Minchin.
ltep 2
It would be nice if we could interview pollsters! One wonders if we will ever see the vanished 2PP figure. I suspect it will remain forever in the “unreportable news” category as far as News Corp are concerned.
Today’s desk calendar quote:
“Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake”.
- Napoleon Bonaparte
How apt.
To offer Rudd a constructive suggestion, a friend on an email group I receive suggested that they should plant a veggie patch at the lodge and/or Kirribilli, similar to what Michelle Obama has done at the White House. It has many advantages – can involve community, is sustainable, healthy, encourages other people to adopt a healthier lifestyle, and is even good in terms of GHG emissions (carbon absorbed, less food miles).
I can’t think of any downside. He could ask Peter Cundle to come up and advise how to lay one out properly.
Or Howard ?
One downside, Socrates. Isn’t Peter Cundle in jail?
Senate resumes at 10.00AM, should be some fireworks!
This should send a shudder through the Liberal party today
The Nats are completely delusional:
Psephos # 35. I disagree. Abbott is Santamaria’s heir, as is K Andrews; Minchin and/or Robb & a few others, are Howard’s heir/s. Either way, they’re bad news for the Coalition and very good news for the ALP (& possibly Greens – preferences in the Senate to keep the BoP from both ALP & Lib) Taken in consideration with Possum’s “Liberal Trainwreck” demographics and polls showing GenY as overwhelmingly pro-CC, that should be 2.5 terms for Rudd before he hands over to Julia. Could beat the 1949-72 record, for updated versions of the same reasons!
One would have thought Gen Boomer taught Libs a lesson about alienating a generation; although, in the 60s, Libs’ liberal attitudes, esp over Aboriginal Rights, scrapping WAP (both Holt), and liberalising censorship (John Gorton) meant some Boomers weren’t as ‘rusted onto’ the ALP as GenY is onto Climate Change. Possum shows Boomers (a poor description, as Boomers’/ Youthquakers leaders -the first hippies, Anti-nuclear/ antiwar protesters, Mary Quant & her Minis, Beatles etc – were pre-Boomers) are still pro-Left, and with the first war babies turning 70, the Oz Libs look like following the UK Liberals into near oblivion as (mainly through Howard’s approach to emerging issues) their causes drift into perpetual night.
GenX support was, I believe, softer, until Climate Change (& workchoices). They were the first generation obsessed by what Conservative letters-to-the-editors labelled Land rights for Gay Whales (some older bloggers will remember that slur’s being around from the late 1970s) So my guess is that the Coalition’s CC stance might just be rusting them onto the Left too.
Kit 52
I thought he was bailed. If not, he’s only in jail because of his honest opposition to the Tasmanian Labor Government’s appallingly unethical handling of the environmentally damaging and hopelessly uneconomic Gunns Pulp Mill. You can buy a premier quite cheaply in Tasmania. And we don’t have as much right to free speach here as we wish.
I’d rather Rudd invited Cundle to a garden party than the Tasmanian premier.
I’m sure the Nationals would win a good 0.4% of the vote in Bradfield, a lot of farmers in Pymble and Gordon.
This is a no brainer.
Hockey will be destroyed by Minchin and Abbott. There’s no way he’ll be able to control them if he doesn’t do what they want him to do, and if he does do what they want, then Rudd will smash him at the election.
Hockey is deluding himself if he thinks otherwise. It’s a pity, for him, that he didn’t listen to Nick Greiner’s advice.
If it was me, I would have let Abbott run, let Abbott take the leadership, let Abbott get smashed at the next election – and then come in fresh on his terms.
Taking the lead now will only get him smashed at the next election and then it will be him the party blames for the loss, not Minchin nor Abbott.
Hockey is a fool. It’s already all over for him.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/joe-hockeys-political-hot-potato/story-e6frg6zo-1225805140725
HERES A SHORT CUT TO THINKING.
Religion = BAD
Anything to do with that MUST be BAD.
So this chaplincy that is funded must have some merit for what they do in order to be funded. Has any one reseached what they do and what programs are runned and what bench marks are acheived rather than the blind critcism that is aimed at it?.
Spare me the “GOD COMPLEX” There is money spent and wasted on a lot of programs that I find distateful aswell but I’m not here to rubbish them either. Where do you start!
Greetings from Coorparoo in in the heart of KR’s electorate from a Labor voter too!
Evan14 – have to go out shortly but couldn’t resist agreeing with you about Steve Price. It’s been ridiculous. I just had to switch it off because I couldn’t stand it any longer.
All oldies ringing to say they don’t believe the polls. Price says they’re not right because he’s got more callers than the people polled and his callers are on the money.
Let them have Joe Hockey – he’ll soon have to worry about his own back but in the meantime Kev and Penny have to get out there and answer the nutters with their new world order rubbish.
Can anyone point ot a presser or press release that hockey states he is running for the leadership?
or are the MSM engaging in a circlejerk cos they are out of the loop?
ru
I’ve been in the Hockey and no ETS camp since Friday. I haven’t seen anything to change my mind yet.
Perhaps Rudd twittered his church group “Thinking of upping the school chaplaincy budget from $120M to $160M. I really want to know what you think.”
On a more serious note, it may look like a bad decision by Rudd on the school chaplaincy program but it may be evidence-based. Perhaps the God-botherers are well trained in kids problems and counsel them well and have been shown to have good outcome and are cost-effective. Until I knew whatevidence there was one way or the other, I wouldn’t make a decision one way or another.
And I disagree with the paedophile arguments completely as their is no evidence that has been a problem.
News Radio broadcasting from the House Of Reps today!
So we’ll miss all the drama in the Senate, but on the plus side, Stephen Smith is there & Julia.
Here another thought,
Perhaps Hockey thinks it’s ok to take the leadership, because (atm) there’s no one left to roll him even if he performs badly etc. Installing Abbot would still be insane even then.
Oh dear, Pyne is making an ass of himself already!
Aussieguru01 – 60
Some sanity at last. Well said.
I think this is the case.
If Hockey was smart and didn’t intend to run then he should have said so yesterday after the meeting with Dutton. I think it’s perfectly reasonable for the media to be confident he’s running given the pressure that’s been applied by Abbott and Co; the meeting with Howard; the meeting with Dutton and especially his silence throughout.
I want to hear from Hockey his version of the phone call with Turnbull on Saturday night. T says H backed him in that call.
Aussieguru
Despite being an atheist myself, that is precisely the sort of absolutism that I object to in religeons
Maybe Dutton was just visiting the new Hockey baby?
If you have to think this long and hard about taking the leadership then surely the sensible answer is “NO”.
Mesma reappears!
I presume she’s done her own deal with Minchin?
Fielding just tried to move the third reading vote be pushed back to February
Further to the above, Aussieguru sarcasm aside, your post completly reverses the burden of proof. I am not the one who introduced the chaplancy funding. It was not a traditional part of our school funding. Why does it deserve funding? Surely it is up to those who support it continuing to get public funding to show that it serves a purpose? Given that I haven’t seen any analysis of it, how can I disprove it?
Ie, you have no idea whether it deserves funding or not but you’re against it anyway.
GB
the libs have form running “blindside issues” also they defer attention away from
Grech
ETS
Economy
Inother words via their friends in the MSM they are determining the agenda
The lack of critical analysis of the libs POLICY failings is a sad indictment of the MSM
Thank you Gary Bruce and well said Diogenes.
Socrates,
A refined Greek name too. Being a Greek aussie myself. No sir their is no absolutism here just a POV for fairness thats all. May be some research may be warranted as it is our tax money just to sure.
If they are giving it out freely I’ll give Swanny my A/C no & BSB no!
I don’t really get the greens amongst all this. I trust they are expecting that the ETS will be bombed, there will be a DD election and they will hold the BOP in the senate. And then what? Do you think that ALP will introduced a suped up ETS and committ political suicide? The people are not ready for massive increases in power and goods. try and hit them with a sledge hammer and they’ll not only block it but take it away from you. Why don’t they they get it through their thick heads that if you don’t introduce things gradually then you won’t survive in politics. Something is better than nothing. Pass the bloody bill, and push to make amendments in the near future. It is not going to be set in stone!!!
Senate:
http://webcast.aph.gov.au/livebroadcasting/asx1/hms943a.asx
Aussieguru01
Yes, and presented a paper at a Class A national conference; but I admit that was pre-retirement. QLD state schools, via a referendum early last century, allowed what were deliberately designed as secular primary schools to have 1 hour of religion a week; half as bible reading, half as RE conducted by local ministers. The latter was extended to SHSs; but on both cases, children had to attend the classes offered by the sect designated on their enrolment forms, unless parents specifically requested, in writing, that they attend either a different sect’s, or no RE.
I don’t remember taking part in any QLD referendum altering that reality.
I objected strongly to having my offspring approached, in the local SHS’s grounds, at lunchtime, by ‘evangelist’ ‘chaplins’ from sects I’d describe as USA RW ‘Southern’, and protested even before the one responsible for the ’1993 Rapture’ event was later, in a town not much over an hours’s drive away, run in for the usual reason clergy tend to be. Nor, indeed, was he alone. Sadly, not by a long shot.
Fully-trained, on-site, secular counsellors are cheap at the price!
Yes GB I am against it on principle. I’ll tolerate it if it can be shown that it works, but as we both know there is no proof of that. But overall, I am against Rudd cynically buying votes from religeous types just as much as I was against Howard cynicism. I don’t ask him to fund the free dstribution of copies of Richard Dawkins to high school students.
By the sound of Bob Brown, the Greens will oppose sending the amended bill off to a committee.
That would mean if 1 Liberal crosses the floor, the Liberals would be forced to vote the bill down.
Bob brown doing some handwringing and guilt shifting
“I wrote to the PM twice”
Joyce…”Mercenary belligerent and arrogant”…talking about the ALP, not his collegues…
Oz Pol 81
Agree 100%. The old Qld. solution for religeous education in schools was a fair compromise. The Howard chaplaincy arrangements go a lot further and are much more open to abuse. Hence my point: why can’t we see some proof of efficacy before we spend another $140M. You could build two high schools with that cash.
The funniest scenario would be if the leadership contest was Kevin Andrews V Tony Abbott.
OzPol Tragic,
Is that the substance of it. I’ll do some research of current facts to assess myself if this a worth while program or political sweetner. BRB,
Well, the first 30 minutes of Senate time wasted…22 & half hours to go…
Best possible scenario for everyone:
Malcolm sticks to his guns and remains leader. ETS passed. Liberal front bench consists of moderates, loonies sent to back bench. Sane liberal party goes to next election – still loses, but the opportunity for true renewal and rebuilding is created.
Worst: Joe elected, refers ETS to committee (on what grounds? which of the 300 plus amendments are the committee to consider? If the bill hasn’t been passed, aren’t they all equally valid?) and reappoints loonies to frontbench positions, promoting some of them (he’d have to). They have his cojones in their hands. Liberal party goes to next election and is completely obliterated (or worse: only a handful of Libs remain, all from the Minchin camp).
And I’m curious as to why anyone thinks a DD would produce a better bill. Surely a DD means that Labor would not have to negotiate with anyone but could just pass it as is?
A DD simply makes the Greens more irrelevant than they are already.
The Greens best chance of getting closer to what they want is not a DD but a full election, when they can use (presuming they have it) BOP to negotiate new legislation with the government.
The Greens best course would be to support the present legislation, knowing that they had a good chance of changing it after the next full election.
If we go to a DD, the bill will be passed as is by a joint sitting of the HoR and Senate – and the HoR will overwhelm the Senate vote.
I’m listening to the House of Reps: Member for Dawson talking about health care reform.
Don’t ask Andrews to don the budgie smugglers, like the Mad Monk did yesterday!
Pissy Pyne is on ABC Adelaide right now
http://abc.net.au/adelaide/onair/891stream.asx
Re concerning the Chaplaincy funding program please go here -
http://www.deewr.gov.au/schooling/nationalschoolchaplaincyprogram/Pages/home.aspx
and I found this…
“The National School Chaplaincy Program aims to support school communities that WISH TO ACCESS the services of a school chaplain or SECULAR pastoral care worker.”
Also on the right hand side you can click on funding information ect.
Christopher Pyne:
Penny Wong is on fire
Laocoon: So the Liberals are trying to bring on the vote to send the legislation off to a committee?
Can’t be long before Hockey makes the inevitable announcement!
No, not yet.
Also I found this..
If a school is participating, do all students have to be involved?
No. It is not compulsory for students to participate. Schools must ensure that students and parents understand the voluntary nature of the Program and have the option of whether to utilise the services of a school chaplain.
Do chaplains have to be Christian?
No. School communities will also determine the role, faith and, or denomination of the chaplain. The services provided by a chaplain should be appropriate to the school community and student context in which they will operate.
Chaplains will be expected to respect the range of religious views and affiliations, and cultural traditions in the school and the community, and be approachable by students of all faiths. While recognising that an individual chaplain will in good faith express his or her belief and articulate values consistent with his or her denomination or religious belief, a chaplain should not take advantage of his or her privileged position to proselytise for that denomination or religious belief.
It is recognised that for some religious affiliations, a more suitable or appropriate term may be used, such as Imam, Rabbi, lay leader, or religious worker.
and..
How will I know my child is safe while participating in the Program?
As persons being considered for the role of school chaplain will come into contact with children under the age of 18, school communities will be required to obtain evidence that these persons satisfy the child protection requirements that are outlined in the Program Guidelines. No funding agreements were entered into without this evidence.
All chaplains are required to sign a code of conduct which outlines the expected behaviours.
evan14
I *think* we are still working on what the Senate’s sitting hours will be
And when the time comes to bring Hockey down, Abbot will be able to retrospectively claim that he acted with honour by standing aside for Hockey – ‘Abbot just wanted what was best for the party then, and he just wants what’s best for the party now’.
Surely Joe can’t be that stupid… can he?
Well geez ABC – “as soon as today”. I guess that rules out tomorrow.
Although there seems to be a majority opinion amongst Australians that there should be an ETS and CPRS, is there a majority opinion stating that they are prepared to pay for it? I certainly hope there is. What do bludgers think?
Power corrupts all, Dario!
Dealing with these guys is like making a deal with the Mafia – the deal is ALWAYS on their terms, even if it was on your terms originally.
There is an opportunity for an alternative party to emerge here. If Stott-Despoja and Bartlett and one or two other disaffected Federal and State Libs got together to resurrect the Dems, and made a really serious push for the Senate, they have a real shot at a balance of power role in a DD election.
The extra support for the Greens indicates an unhappiness with Lib and ALP, but I’m not convinced the Greens are the solution to this disquiet – they’re might be seen as too radical. A measured Democrat party might just prick the Green bubble.
It will really depend on how quickly the piranhas in the Coalition devour Hockey. And with his fulsome frame that might take a while, but it will happen.
Abetz accuses ALP of filibuster!
Christopher Pyne just said nearly all of the anti-CPRS emails he has received are from people in QLD and W.A.
Everybody do yourselves a favour and don’t visit the the front page of The Australian online today, unless you want a truly disturbing image seared into your memory.
Aussieguru01 # 88. That’s your perogative. You can be as academically rigorous or biased as you like. As my research was for a Class A national, it was rigorously peer reviewed before I was allowed present it (& it wasn’t an Ed or religious/ athiest conference either).
Queensland’s constitutional amendment – and I have an odd feeling it might have been the one state with one – was a reaction to the non-secular educational push created by c1870′s sectarian stouch between protestants (from memory, mainly Presbyterian, Methodist & Lutheran) and Catholics stirred up by the visit of a Papal Nuncio of the more rabid type. I imagine that NSW government schools were also originally constitutionally non-sectarian, because one of my most vivid research memories is of a letter/ speech by Sir Henry Parkes’ (printed in a Sydney paper) that included an OMG! tirade on “the snapping jaws of the Papist crocodile”.
Wouldn’t Parkes have been rolling in his grave these last few weeks!
The Senate can’t even figure out when they are going to lunch.
Sage advice, any day of the week
NJB, I think it was established in comments yesterday that 1 million of about 8 million households in Australia have agreed to pay extra on their electricity bills in order to support use of “green” power, so the data suggests only about 12% or so of households are happy to pay more for environmentally cleaner electricity. I think the issue of an ETS pushing power bills higher can hurt Labor, especially with the Libs and their media cheer squad running the inevitable scare campaign on the issue. The government needs to really get the message out that people will be compensated. Maybe a media campaign about how to reduce household energy use would help too. If people think they will finish a bit in front financially, then there is no political problem. If people just see the big increase in their quarterly power bill, there could be quite a big political problem, IMO.
Laocoon # 96 & other Senate ‘streamers” (I can’t on my plan) I’d love to be kept up to date with the slogans – beside If you can’t govern yourself, you can’t govern the country which we all know.
They’ll be next election’s slogans!
Grattan sums up the Liberals’ problems:
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/liberals-floundering-in-chaos-20091129-jywk.html
z
Rudd won’t use the ETS as a DD trigger as it’s too complicated legally to do so. Antony asys the Safework Australia and Ruddbank (which Turnbull could run) would be better triggers, although they haven’t been rejected twice yet.
These are my thoughts too.
You can stream just the audio. It is a 16 Kbps mono stream that uses about 7 MB per hour.
http://webcast.aph.gov.au/livebroadcasting/asx1/hms943a.asx
OzPol Tragic
The only slogan that sticks to mind so far is “fair working hours for the Senate”
Still voting on this issue!
I don’t think so. If Hockey just postpones the pain until Feb, then the time will eventually come where he will need to make a decision on whether the Liberals block it or not.
There’s no way the government will go to a D.D. before July 3rd, else their 2nd term will be limited to 2 years.
An issue is that power bills may go up for reasons other than ETS – namely years of under-investment, (long term) coal contract prices renegotiated etc
OzPol Tragic,
After reading the facts on this program I have no problem with it. Technically speaking if you meet the criteria you or I or even Socrates could be funded chaplains and there if no need for a religious bias either.
Yesterday is history, tomorow is a mystery but today is today!
Not investing in nuclear power a decade ago…
The Libs won’t give Rudd a trigger on anything. And I’m increasingly persuaded that he doesn’t want one anyway.
That is an entirely disingenuous assumption. Just because only 12% currently do it does not mean that more aren’t willing to in the future.
So do you think the Liberals will vote for the CPRS in Feb? Will they ask for even more amendments so they can pretend their position is different from what it was last Tuesday?
Psephos
Gartrell seems to be moving the other way.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/prime-minister-kevin-rudd-open-to-idea-of-an-early-federal-election/story-e6frgczf-1225805228546
OzPol Tragic
Another coalition slogan…”Government is filbustering the CPRS legislation”. Macfarlane has just started along this path.
Looks like I might have to break out the no-doze now…
To scare the crap out of the Libs I would assume
Dario
Agreed and the argument is plain stupid. GreenPower means ALL of your electricity comes fom renewables so it’s quite a bit more expensive that what the ETS will provide (say 20% coming from RE).
Well, it’s a commonly known fact that the Libs are full of liars
Dario
This comment he made would scare them even more.
Socrates (74 at 10.12 am),
Chaplaincy hasbeen a traditional part of school funding for at least 50 years in Victoria. My first school had a chaplain, and an excellent person she was too. It has been a complete non-issue for almost the entire 50 years. It became an issue only when John Howard decided to fund it, telling us all that the issue was not chaplaincy itself but the Howard government.
Silly me, I just looked at the Australian online front page!
Abbott makes Debnam look good, and that’s not saying much!
Mad Monk, keep your clothes on!
Yes, 57% of people ready to take a baseball bat to the coalition for being obstructionist, even AFTER saying they would support the bill.
OzPol #110 – although it was not done on any constitutional basis, I know secular primary schools in WA had a similar scheme. The Catholics opted to start their own schools instead and there was a massive battle over state aid to the private (mostly Catholic) schools in the 1894 election, which resulted in its 3 main supporters being defeated and state aid passing out of the statute books a year later. The Anglicans were believed not to have objected primarily because of the sort of provision you cited in the state schools.
Wong is great! She is just pointing out that all the questions being asked have already been answered in the material given to the opposition for the agreement.
Wong is playing this much better today, she is keeping her responses to a bare minimum, thus forcing the Nats to do all the filibustering themselves.
Diogenes #127 – I’m pretty sure Rudd would look at QLD, NT and WA and think going to an early poll is at present something voters are unhappy with the notion of, regardless of past inclinations.
Now Fiona Nash is just asking the same question again. Wong should say “refer to my previous answer”.
One thing I am looking forward to is Turnball turning Rogue. I hope he lands a lot of punches, to the traitors, the deniers and the losers. Go malcopops the force is with you. Join the ALP
One word springs to mind… BOOM
Some key points in all the results that have been released today. From Nielsen.
66% want the ETS (ie action on climate change, whatever that entails)
51% see ETS as positive for the environment, 6% negative for the environment
45% see ETS as negative for the economy, 25% positive for the economy.
They believe an ETS will be good for the environment, AND they believe it will cost.
That’s it folks – it’s all over.
The negative aspects of an ETS are already factored in, it doesn’t matter what the specifics are. There is little scope for a scare campaign, the public already it expect it to cost, but they are prepared to accept it for the benefit of the environment.
Chris Curtis. 133
Yes the Victorian position was fair enough. I have no problem with people practising their religeous views in a voluntary manner. It should be a personal choce, niether promoted nor hindered by the State. I have helped religeous volunteer groups myself; most of them do good work. Howard wanted to “own” the teaching of religeon in schools so he gave them our money to promote his view of the world. Hence I object.
How Wong keeps here equanimity is amazing
Nah. His barbs will do a lot more damage if he stays in the Libs.
I wish someone would point that out to Senator Campbell!
Every time he interjects the Opposition speaker takes the opportunity to waste another 15 minutes responding to the interjection which is usually inane in any case!
*her
Michelle Gratten this morning was arguing that Turnball should gracefully retire to the Liberal back bench and be a good boy until the next election.
Ain’t gonna happen methinks!
Malcopops will either turn Independent or join the ALP!
Yup. It’s a very good poll result for the ETS.
Steve Price must be screening his phone calls, it’s all anti ETS/anti-Rudd propoganda!
Why the hell I listen to this nonsense is beyond me!
Aristotle @ 59
Greiners advice to Joe was spot on but I bet stupid Joe will take Howard’s advice over Greiners.
Having said that, time is getting on, we are halfway through Monday and he is still laying low.
Come on Jelly Belly stiffen up and make a decision
I must admit Turnbull’s handling of this has actually increased my opinion of him somewhat.
enjaybee #117 And How!
Perhaps information on CC information like this (I mentioned yesterday; but this you won’t have to chase
Tesco becomes UK’s first retailer to display carbon footprint on milk
And the UK is considered to be behind many Euro states, esp members of the old EEC.
Have you seen any Oz MSM campaign on “Carbon Footprint” labelling? UK Info on this scheme – and it goes waaaay beyond dairy and includes “carbon miles/kilometers” – has been around at least since 2007 (before the election was called). Do you understand what it entails? Do you think any rural producer Deniers have a clue what its impact on Oz exports will be?
BTW, it will eventually apply to all exports – livestock, farm-produce, food processing, manufacturing (will include CF on farm production processed into wool, leather, cotton etc goods), minerals, etc.
How far from “leading the world” are we really?
After the the barbs have injected their venom dario, then he can join the ALP- save it for when the election is anounced would be just fantastic. Move the entire focus of anything to just this- former leader changes parties and says ” they are a fractured bunch of people that I can no longer work with or believe in”
I wouldn’t want Turnbull in the ALP. He is a a loose cannon and much better suited to the Liberal party.
Dario # 131
That’s Newspeak, Dario! Trust the current Libs to be stuck in 1984!
Well the chaplain my school appointed was a fundamentalist zealot without any counselling skills at at all, who once appointed promptly started to attempt to undermine the schools science teachers, offer inappropriate advice to students with real problems and revealed himself to be inimical to those who did not share his narrow world view.
By its very nature, faith committment to one of the thousands of belief groups that currently exist in our society, a school chaplaincy is completely inappropriate for secular schools where learning, as opposed to faith, should be the basis of education.
For an example of that to which I refer to check this out and ask yourself is this an appropriate group or person to be given access to secular students in public schools?
http://www.tallyroom.com.au/2634
Fred Nile has sent out a strange survey to voters in Bradfield, asking them whether they support or oppose a series of statements, many strongly weighted towards Nile’s positions. These include:
•“Jesus Christ is the Son of God”
•“We should do what the Greenies want and let any foreigner in”
•“Australia needs a ten-year moratorium on Muslim immigration, which is the official policy of the Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group)”
•“The Federal Government should have the power to deport any Muslim”
Geez! The poodle has become a doberman! Onya Christopher, one of the few with guts enough to come out and back Turnbull!
So Newspoll has the Greens up to 12% and a record 13% on Nielsen.
Tell me again… WHY have the Greens supposedly signed their death warrant by not voting for the ETS?
This is for all the Labor hacks out there whose Labor hackery has yet again been proven wrong…
The shock jocks are delusional!
Listen to “Liberal Radio”, otherwise known as 2GB! These turkeys are now boasting that they run the country, not the elected government!
I don’t know who I detest more: Jones, Steve Price or Chris Smith(the man who puts pictures of his 4 year old daughter in the bath on his website).
Notice how TTH has gone missing? He/she was clearly a one trick pony amd a Liberal one at that.
Mind you I know of counterexamples where the chaplains aren’t even religious and have been a great addition to the school community. But I agree with your point that there isn’t sufficient screening of them for this stuff – I know of an example of one in such a position in a private school that possibly precipitated a suicide attempt by a year 12 student.
It’s not
Andrew Owens
The situations aren’t really comparable. There was no compelling reason for those 3 states to go early. Rudd could get away with a DD on CC given those figures.
I’d love to see it.
The bait is on board.
But so much for your prediction that the Greens would win Willigee!
No, they just know what gets ratings and are playing to their audience
Just thinking of a counter-factual universe.
Here we have Wong patiently answering questions
What about a universe in which the Howard government’s climate change minister Turnbull was in a similar situtation…how long before he would have blown up in the Senate – 4 questions maybe??
Oh, and Bob, not all Labor supporters are one-eyed supporters of the legislation. Indeed, its failure may give Rudd a better opportunity to come back from Copenhagen and propose a revised ETS that hasn’t been compromised to buggery by the Liberals and industry. 1% differences in polls, btw, are within margin of error usually.
10 morning news had an ETS scare story on right after the main story on Lib leadership.
It was said that electric bills will go up 60% and the regional/country areas will be hit hardest having to pay an extra $450 a year.
We can expect stories like this every night on the news from now on I guess.
Fielding is playing for the disinfected (sic) ALP and Lib voterss
One thing I’ve noticed: the Liberals and their media hack cheer squad hate international forums, whether it be the United Nations or something like the Copenhagen Conference. I guess it fits into the “left wing global conspiracy” argument Minchin and his foot soldiers are promoting.
Dare I say it but I’m gaining some, SOME, respect for Pyne.
Here’s another Carbon Footprint story from yesterday’s Guardian: Consumers want to make green choices Subtitle The potential of consumers to make a real difference when it comes to fighting climate change should not be wasted
Note: Italics – my emphasis!
Have you seen articles like this in Oz’s leading newspapers?
Aristotle 142
Thanks those comments on the ETS are interesting. The 66% support for passing an ETS is also encouraging for persuading the skeptics. The costs stuff is evidence that scarmongering works.
I think this makes it possible to “over-deliver” on the ETS. With later amendment it wil do more for the environment than assumed. On the cost side it will be less than people have been alarmed by, and with more benefits in terms of new green jobs.
Ooop. Bugger. Having another bad day!
I never ever said the Greens would win Willagee, I don’t believe I even commented on the by-election at all prior to election day.
Newspoll Greens 12%
Nielsen Greens record 13%
Remaining loyal to Turnball will probably means Pyne gets demoted! Minchin won’t reward the moderates, ie. Pyne, Hunt, McFarlane!
A plurality of voters, according to one of todays polls I forget which, accept that an ETS will probably be an economic negative [20 some % thought it would be positive and I dunno what the missing group thought] yet in the same poll a large majority support an ETS.
Clearly the ‘its gonna cost gazillions’ scare stories are going to have some but limited impact.
evan14 @ 150 – Steve Price must be screening his phone calls, it’s all anti ETS/anti-Rudd propoganda!
Why the hell I listen to this nonsense is beyond me!
Well, one of the alternatives is Ray Hadley……
Will there be QT in the Reps today?
Here on PB they tend to be.
Also, you won’t find a single Labor MP who is prepared to say they don’t agree with it (but will nevertheless vote for it per Labor rules)
Socrates: One can legitimately criticse Rudd for leaving a vacuum, and letting the sceptics/idiots take over the debate! If the ETS, by some miracle, passed this week, the government would then need to spend some money on an advertising/educational campaign. For instance, the media aren’t reporting that most families, certainly those on incomes below $150,000 per annum, will be adequately compensated for price rises!
Loose Canons rule! loose Cannons are what makes the world interesting. imagine how boring it would be without loose canons. I propose an international “Loose Cannon Appreciation Day” symbol – the canon from monopoly set as a badge. Day december 1. when Turnbull goes Rogue
Socrates, I don’t think it’s because of scaremongering, I think it’s because people figure you don’t get something for nothing.
They expect it to cost to save the environment, and they’re happy to do so – despite what the denialists think!
I don’t entirely share your optimism. Most bludgers seem to think that the government is at Ajax odds to win the next election and I hope they are right but remember Ajax started at 40 to 1 on in a two horse race and lost.
Many argue that people don’t know the real costs. And I tend to agree that Australia as a whole generally tends to be ignorant of any particular policy detail.
That’s why I think Turnball should go Independent! He serves out the remaining part of his term, he’s able to criticise the Liberals, and you can bet that Rudd & Albo in return would spend millions on infastructure in Wentworth!
OzPol Tragic
A long way Oz! You don’t get to be the worst per capita emitter in the OECD without doing something wRONg. Untill recently we haven’t evne been game to tell people how much power their plasam TV would use before they bought it. We let people air condition homes without getting them insulated first. Our building codes are hopelessly compromised by regulators selling out to local building product manufacturers. The five/six star rating system is just a “tick the box” approach that does not guarantee any correlation with energy consumption in the house. How many times have you ever seen double glazed windows in Australia? They can work for summer heat as well as winter cold. Moving to building industry self regulation has been just as big a failure as financial market self regulation was. We built lots of large, low quality houses. They weren’t even cheap either.
This doesn’t just affect energy consumption. Lots of our apartments have appallingly poor noise damping between walls.
Aristotle
Fair enough, but the irony of it is that, if you read Garnaut, the cost of an ETS is a 1% reduction in growth rate over 30 years! It is small. Most of the “costs” generate work for other people. Net economic cost is very low, unless you are Clive Palmer.
bob
well, for a start, I’m on the record repeatedly saying the targets aren’t high enough. But that upsets your stereotypes, so just ignore it.
???Are you saying there’s something wrong in saying you agree with something and then voting for it?
It’s possible you won’t find a single Labor MP disagreeing cos they don’t and therefore there is no hypocrisy in voting for it.
I notice that not a single Green Senator says they’re in support of the ETS, are we to assume that this means some of them are hypocrites?
Question Time must be held at 2 PM unless a motion is moved and voted on to stop it from going ahead.
I’m listening to the Senate
Midday Report said Rudd play major role and convinced India and Canada to come on board re agreement on ETS at CHOGM.
Also showed Kev giving Brian Lara an Australia Medal (i think that’s what it was)
Actually, that was a three horse race
Honorary Order of Australia.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/two-in-three-voters-back-emissions-scheme-poll-20091129-jyvm.html
I still can’t believe Labor actually lost 3% of the primary vote. The coalition lost 1%, the Greens picked up 4% to an all-time Nielsen record 13%. And past Green results have come in at 9, 10, 8, 8, 8, so lower than Newspoll. And Newspoll has the Greens up to 12%.
Honestly, all this Labor hackery spouted by Labor hacks that the Greens would pay the price for their Senate actions, just yet more hot air created by hyperventilating in the bubbles they live in.
Thanks Shows
Senator Cameron /= Senator Campbell. (A common mistake.)
cool zoomster. But I made no reference to you or your target belief. I simply said that most Labor hacks fully back the Rudd ETS.
That’s pretty good work, in particular India
I bet the airconditioning at the Liberal Headquarters bunker is working doubly hard today!
The heat generated by furious analysis of the past couple of days polling, would be causing confused panic and chaos!
All their strategies over the next two days with regard to the leadership and the ETS will be dictated to a large degree on the data from these polls!
They will be trying to work out how they can limit damage, what aspects of the surveys can they turn around before the election and one great big pile of other considerations including the cost/benefit analysis of changing the leader, which leader gives them the greatest benefit etc etc etc!
And the confusing, contradictory advice they are receiving from the varied factions in the media only add to that confusion! Added to that is the behind the scenes influence pedalling by the likes of Howard, Costello, Downer and goodness who else!
What fun! So many areas in which to make fatal errors!
Labor is just calmly sitting back waiting and watching this train wreck take place right before their eyes and in full public view! Loving it!
Bob how do greens think the scenario will pan out, and what do they think they’ll get. 13% = no extra seats, One nation got 10% nationally and how many seats do it get them?
If you think all 115 current federal Labor MPs support Labor’s ETS, you’re wrong.
Socrates @ 189
Although I agree with a lot of what you’re saying, you do seem to be ignoring the ONLY reason why we’re the worst per capita – and that’s coal.
I don’t know the figures, but I think that if you took coal out of the equation we’d drop back to a quite reasonable figure. The fact that we’re still putting in air conditioners, for example, when other countries have had them for decades, suggests that we’ve been quite frugal in that regard.
And we’re fairly modest heaters, too – I had friends who lived in an apartment complex in the USA. They never turned their heating on; everyone else overheated theirs to such an extent that they never needed to.
Outside of office complexes, most of us are still more likely to put on an extra jumper than turn on the heater.
Certainly we as individuals can and should look at our energy use and make it more efficient. I just don’t know how much we should beat ourselves up for the situation we’re in now – when we started off down the path of coal fired energy, noone could foretell this is where we’d end up.
So yes, encourage people to change, but don’t blame them for having to.
All that matters to me is that the socially left third party in Australian politics will once again hold the sole BoP. That’s all I’ve ever wanted. On 2007 levels the Greens would hold the BoP, so current polling is an absolute given. And it might give them the impetus to win a federal lower house seat or two.
http://resources3.news.com.au/images/2009/11/30/1225805/212259-tony-abbott-091130.jpg
*cries*
bob
and the Green senators? Are they all in lock step agreement with the hive mind? Or do they hold a couple of independent thinkers as well?
I find it very hard to believe that at least one Green senator doesn’t realise how silly their position is on this.
They have nothing to gain – not better legislation, anyway – from their present stance, and surely ONE of them see this?
Who opposes it? And where is your evidence that this is the case?
Technically it’s still last Thursday in the House of Representatives. They didn’t adjourn, they suspended. This means it’s not necessary to have a question time today.
Shows On @ 195 – Kerry O’Keeffe said it’s for services to Australian nightclubs.
http://twitter.com/samanthamaiden
Maybe Turnbull will cave in and demand the treasury portfolio for resigning, thus enabling the leadership challenge to be called off?
a) They aren’t the government and they aren’t arguing for legislation they’ve created to be passed.
b) They’re only 5 Senators.
c) This line of thinking can apply to any party. But Labor is in power, Labor introduced the weak legislation, and Labor has well over 100 federal MPs.
There’s only 5. Why is it so hard to believe that, but not to believe there’s no dissent amongst over 100 MPs? Talk about Labor hackery hypocrisy!!!
They don’t hold the BoP and getting tougher legislation through would not get Fielding or any coalition MP support, it’s hard enough getting the current one through. And Labor refuses to negotiate with the Greens anyway, just so they can be political and put the coalition through it’s current agony.
bob if the greens can’t generate a bit of extra support when all the focus is on environmental issues, I’m not sure when they ever will. If the greens actually end up voting against labor’s scheme and the legislation fails and gets seriously delayed then they will look rather hypocritical. They shouldn’t throw the baby out with the bathwater, which is what they would be doing if they voted against it. I think the greens current senate tactics are outdated and were designed on the assumption that the liberals would do a deal with labor (which is looking rather shaky), they could vote against it and make themselves look like champions of a better climate deal.
Hello, what a fantastic day.
Now as one of the paid up members of the Greens rock throwing team, can I (I hope you understand that I’m not saying that there is any conspiracy going on, oh no absolutely not.) That I’ve just finished my soy latte and wish to make a few points.
I’ve just had a look at the Australian, (Its ok, I kept it short), Shanagins is mad and clear gone!
Secondly, our right wing faction known as the ALP, should rejoice in the current turn of events. What is happening is that there are a group of voters, ( I like to call them the Lib democrats, but wets, progressives etc sums them up). That are actually going to change their vote over Global Warming. now as we know, there is not much point in tightening your base, barnaby, if you are driving away the middle.
It is a time to rejoice, I can see many of us drifting of into a middle age watching a political landscape dominated by an ALP that will feel free to move slightly to the middle/left, be Greener etc, a senate and many state upper houses dominate by afore said party with a Greens BOP. and a conservative rump disappearing over the horizon as far as Andrew Bolt can see.
Sorry if this all sounds a bit to good, but if someone can tell me a better story!
And then what Bob? introduce your own ETS, maybe 30% reduction, maybe as a private members bill? The ALP are not stupid enough to throw out being in government. I think everyone is in favor of a CPRS but only 10% are willing to pay whateveer it costs. There is a sliding scale after that with the 90%. An interesting corelation study.My hypothesis: increasing the personal cost of the CPRS is directly proportional to changing your support of it. I reckon the figure would be $100=1% vote. At $3k to $5K extra per household= game over change of government
Martin Ferguson is one who would come out more strongly against the ETS if the Labor structure wasn’t as it is.
Considering the Labor hacks have been going around saying how bad the Green Senate actions will be for the Green vote, i’m just going to ignore the rest of your post.
I’ve asked this before but got no answer. Are Greens Senators ALLOWED to cross the floor?
The Australian Democrats were allowed to cross the floor. In fact I believe most of the ADs voted against the GST, Meg Lees and Andrew Murray voted for it, I am certain that NSD and Andrew Bartlett voted against it.
I believe so but it’s yet to happen in the Senate as far as I’m aware.
Vera,
That’s only because Pyne and Minchin have been long term factional enemies and hate each others guts!
It’s rather scary that in just a matter of a year, all the non-federal parliaments have gone from safe Labor to only Victoria. The rest are not on stable ground at the moment.
This is just your speculation. You have no evidence of this.
blah blah blah in the Senate (aside from a completely gratuitous aside from Milne [?] on workplace deaths installing home insulation)
Does not seem to be any sense of urgency from either side to be doing anything right now.
While I am making positive comments on Wong’s performance, I would have to add that the officials in her department must be doing a good job as well to make sure she is so well prepared
bob if the greens can’t generate a bit of extra support when all the focus is on environmental issues, I’m not sure when they ever will.
Ha Ha Ha 12% and 13% that is a 20-30% swing to the Greens, mainly, I have suggested from the LIBS, sweet days, happy days, the ALP is worried, panacky, 57%. What do you guys want.
Ahhh, the solidarity pledge.
I can’t make any sense of that except that I think you’re suggesting Libs have gone to the Greens instead of Labor. If you’re basing this on a swing away from the Libs and a swing to the Greens, don’t get swept up in net swings. What you don’t see are the gross swings.
Non sequitur.
To clarify:
Nielsen who normally record 8-9% for the Greens are reporting a Nielsen record 13%, a swing of 4%, while Newspoll has them up to 12%, the only better result was 13% for the 10-12 Oct 2008 poll.
The Greens have been rewarded for their Senate actions
Anyone else find this type of debating boring and purile?
Bob
You are right about the Labor “opposition” to the Greens ETS view. The fact that the 2PP has hardly shifted shows that some Labor voters shifted to Greens but would still preference Labor. Those who work for Labor, as opposed to support it, obviously don’t want that, and thus don’t want to admit that the current ETS, though a good structure, is weaker than it could be.
Conversely, I don’t agree with some of Sen. Milne’s views either. The rate of change she proposes is almost physically impossible to deliver, given supply constraints within the power industry. Both Greens and Labor are playing politics on the ETS.
When there’s no paper trail it cannot be proven. But if you want to sit there and tell me Ferguson agrees with the ETS as do the other 114 federal Labor MPs, then you go ahead and do that. But we both know who is telling falsehoods.
Sky have got Piers on , turned TV off as I just had my lunch
Gotta go out for a few hours so when I return will Joe have made a move???
2PP is calculated on preference flows from the previous election.
ShowsOn
I believe the Greens can vote how they want.
Speaking of “our ABC” (well, somebody was) the 7pm news bulletin a few nights ago featured a story on the effect of climate change on the Arctic. The story featured lots of commentary by scientists interspersed with file footage of panoramic landscapes that showed lots of ice and snow… and penguins!
Then Labor should have been willing to sit down with the Greens and negotiate. The Greens aren’t going to revise their targets if the government isn’t prepared to sit down with them. And Labor won’t do that because they prefer the coalition to internally combust. Politics always rules over good policy.
Well that’s interesting. Let’s say Labor wins the next election and has 36 Senators, and the Greens have 7. I wonder if 3 sensible Greens will support a new CPRS. Or 2 Greens and Xenophon?
Interesting that Newspol has Rudd satisfaction the same at Nielsen has Rudd satisfaction the same at 56%, whilst Nielsen has it down 2 to 66%. You’d have thought they’d have gone up…
Excuse that poor excuse for a first sentence.
I believe Bob Brown mentioned that he wrote a letter to the PM’s office offering to negotiate on the CPRS but it didn’t even receive a reply. I mean, I understand why the ALP wouldn’t negotiate with the Greens when it would be fruitless to do so, but to not even send a reply? This shows that either:
a) The ALP holds the Greens in contempt and believe them to not be a player in this government or any future government.
or
b) The ALP is specifically ignoring the Greens and keeping them out of the limelight so that the lack of anything actually to do with the environment in the currently proposed implementation of the ETS doesn’t get any play in the media
or
c) The ALP wants to focus media attention on the Libs to the exclusion of everything else and hope the natural duopoly of our two party system will keep the Greens relatively easy to manage.
So which one is it?
zoomster
I accept your points too but I don’t think our current position is so accidental. I can recall a time working in the Qld govt in the 80s when there were media campaigns by Energex (SEQEB back then I think) with titles like “Life Is Electric” where they were actually trying to encourage greater purchasing of electric appliances to boost power consumption. Our domestic consumption per capita is high.
Likewise even our coal CO2 “footprint” is worse than it needs to be. We have some very high quality black coal in NSW and Qld that emitts about 25% less CO2 per unit of energy than brown coal, yet State governments in SA and Vic insist on burning the latter rather than finishing a decent interstate grid and pensioning off the old plants.
When you consider how little manufacturing we do here (low industrial use), our per capita emissions are very high. The easiest ways to really reduce them would be:
- close down brown coal plants for other sources
- stop subsidising aluminium smelters!
- reduce beef consumption.
At the last election the Greens averaged 9% in the Senate and after preferences ended up falling 1% short of quota in Vic, 1.3% short in Qld and 3.3% short in NSW. If they achieve anything close to 13% in the forthcoming election they will certainly have 2 and probably 3 additional Senators.
decon
To negotiate you mus have goodwill to begin with.
Bob Brown seems insistent that his way is the only way.period.nada etc etc
How do you negotiate with that?
Bob 236
Agreed; they wanted to wedge the Liberals.
This isn’t o good sign
None of those are mutually exclusive
Joe you huge fool
BTW that is not a suggestion that the Greens will get 13% in the next election. Just an argument that “13% = no additional seats” is wrong.
ShowsOn, I don’t believe the Greens would ever support the unamended ETS, let alone the Libs-friendly amended ETS. The ALP would have to make significant amendments to ‘green up’ the package, so that the Greens can comfortably sell it to their own constituents.
As – similar to the Australia card debacle – it is unlikely that the raft of current bills and associated legislation will be present at the table in a joint sitting, the ALP will have to revise the scheme to present it to the humbled Liberals or the empowered Greens. Given the unreliability of the current incarnation of the Liberal party, it’s quite likely that a strengthened ETS will get through parliament following a DD.
I don’t think so either. But my point was that it could split the Greens. Some accepting a certain amount of compromise, and others wanting more.
The Greens Senate actions have been justified, polls to record or near record highs.
All the Labor hacks have gone quiet.
Gusface, it takes two parties at the table to negotiate. The Greens have made their position clear, but the ALP never sat down at the table so that the Greens could negotiate.
Anyway Bob Brown’s letter didn’t seem to indicate that the Greens will not budge at all. The government just wilfully ignored it.
You would assume the CPRS will be underpinned by a lot of legislative instruments that the Senate could promise to disallow in advance to stop the Government from attempting to ram the bills through at a joint sitting without negotiation.
Oh dear.
In trying to understand the mad urge to self destruct by the Liberals I held my nose and watched the Insiders,one thing that struck me was there was no mention of what role the ‘Greenhouse Mafia’ may have played in all this.My understanding is that this self described mafia are the most powerful group of lobbyists working on behalf of the polluters and the do not evevn get a mention,surely this must have been a simple oversight.
Why negotiate with the powerless?
ShowsOn, there has been significant discussion among the Greens about the implications of not supporting the unamended ETS, but I understand the consensus among Greens members was to vote against it.
The structure of the Greens is a little bit different to other parties. As it’s “grassroots democracy”, Greens MPs don’t really get to take their own views to the chambers. They have to represent the party views or they risk being defrocked. That’s one of the consequences of standing for the Greens.
So two letters of demand and then Bob can wring his hands of any responsibility.
Defining moment for Bob and the Greens methinks
William needs to update his post
See previous post
http://twitter.com/Latikambourke
Bishop has been booted!
I agree Martin. When you look at the last two elections the right (Coalition + Fielding) got more Senators than their vote share warranted, hence their now disproportionate numbers. Labor and the Greens were both losers in this. A DD would certainly be good for the Greens, which is one reason why Labor would prefer to delay for the half Senate election instead.
ie “Look at moi, look at moi. Oh come on people look at moi.”
I agree. There’s nothing in it for the Government to make concessions to the Greens. Doing so will result in their bills being rejected which makes the whole exercise pointless. Yet some people are arguing that the Greens must negotiate with the Government. The whole argument makes no sense.
Members perhaps, potential voters no
Perhaps they should have negotiated with Rob Oakeshott as well…
Dario, that’s exactly right. I’m not surprised that the ALP never offered to negotiate. However to utterly ignore the offer – not even respond with a reiteration of why the ETS is good for the environment? That moves beyond the reality of the current chamber structure and gets into the political machinations behind it all.
The government would be well within its rights to pass whatever bills it likes at a joint sitting. I mean, that is the whole point of the deadlock provision. It makes the opposition think carefully about whether or not to block bills that they may dislike even more when passed at a joint sitting.
Sky’s panel is Milne, Akermann and Price. Three News Ltd Liberal stooges. This is why I rarely watch TV.
I was referring to AFTER an election when they will most likely hold the balance of power. If there is say 7 Greens (which is probably their best case scenario). Will ALL of them stick together as a block, or will they disagree on the extent that they are willing to compromise.
That is essentially what has happened to the Liberals. Most of the party was happy with the extent of the government concessions, but a minority wasn’t.
If ever you needed three bullets…
Oakeshott voted for the bills in the House both times.
So those people stand around the halls twitting as someone walk past or something? How else do we get something like “Hockey is walk right NOW! with so and so”
There are no secrets these days.
http://twitter.com/samanthamaiden
That would be down to his office. Maybe they got sick of repeated letters from him?
Yes and the Senate would be within its rights to disallow any regulations which give force to the bills, thus making the scheme unworkable.
I think you know what I was getting at
Dario, the Greens party doesn’t represent potential voters, it represents its members. Its members decide what policies will benefit the world as they see it first, then think about potential voters second.
For example, the Greens’ asylum seekers policy has not ever had majority support among the voting public but they’ve continued to stick with it all along, because that’s what its members want.
The elected government represents the voters. The Greens want to win government only if they have a mandate to do so from the voting public on the Greens’ terms. It sort of turns democracy on its head, but I believe it’s the only real way to break into a two-party democracy.
Why negotiate with the powerless?
Howard was right not to negotiate with the unions over his industrial relations reforms. They were powerless…
(…whoops…)
I hope Gillard congratulates Joe Hockey on becoming opposition leader by giving him a WorkChoices mouse mat.
Rudd’s first press conference:
That would have to be the oddest thing I’ve ever heard
So very, very powerless
ShowsOn – there will be a new consensus after a DD, and it may be (albeit unlikely) that the Greens will vote for the unamended ETS, given that Copenhagen will have passed, the implication of the current bills would’ve firmed up even more, and the Greens having the BOP.
I wouldn’t think the Greens senators have ever broken ranks within their own party on any vote, however I frankly don’t know.
There are hardly any dis-allowable instruments that would cripple the scheme. Most of them are related to over ruling the minister’s increase of the targets (something the Greens would never allow!)
If the Liberals lose a D.D. election on climate change then they will cave. A joint sitting probably won’t even be necessary.
The public will see the use of the D.D. as an attempt to end the deadlock over the entire issue. If the opposition continues to disrupt what are now laws, then they will have no hope of winning the election AFTER that.
The government would be able to pass the unamended CPRS at a joint sitting without any other party.
Not in the Senate I think they have in the states.
The Greens NSW announce team to move the country from a corrupt ‘What ever it takes”, “jobs for the boys”, insesteues LIB/LAB playground, to clean up the mess
http://nsw.greens.org.au/greens-announce-new-team-for-nsw-parliament
Barrie Hall hits labor’s dilemma right on the head. This is the real reason they want the scheme passed, they are terrified that the greens might force them to make it actually work in reducing emissions:
Julia Gillard: “We are a Government that wants to go full term. That’s always said. We are not interested in an early election. What we are interested in is delivering action on climate change because we understand the consequences of delay.”
BARRIE CASSIDY: Yes but with that in mind though you have to take into account all sorts of possibilities down the track. If the Opposition continues to oppose an ETS and yet you resist the temptation to go to a double dissolution election, beyond the next election the Greens on their own will have the balance of power in the Senate and then you’ll be negotiating to strengthen the bill, not to weaken it. You wouldn’t want to be in that position would you?
Too right they don’t its their worst nightmare, its why they ditched Garnaut and have been pandering to the polluters and the CFMEU ever since. The main job of the ETS for them was to wedge the libs, its done that now a little too well and they are now in danger of losing the willing accomplices they need to hand over the bags of cash to big coal and big aluminium. Worse we might even be in for (gasp) a prolonged debate on the merits of the bill where they’ll be forced to do what they most fear and strengthen it in the direction the public desperately wants by very poll majority-ie make it better at actually cutting emissions..
Thanks for kicking off that discussion about Green senators, bob.
I think we have clearly established that they have even less freedom of conscience than those in the ALP.
Labor has a lower house majority. They don’t in the upper. This is not a hard concept
12% and 13%!!!
oops-I obviously meant Barrie Cassidy-not big bad Barry Hall -in that last post! Mind you if we could unleash the big fella on the skeptics for a bit of hip and shoulder at least he’d be putting his talents to use for a public good!!!
The Prime Minister:
Mr.Speaker. Despite all of his protestations there is
one thing that we can be clear on. The Leader Of The Opposition is simply
the monkey whilst his master, the organ grinder, resides in The Senate.
The Greens represent the views of its members. Liberal MPs can vote on their own conscience. With Labor, you do what head office dictates you to do.
Yes, we have clearly established it
12% and 13%!
Hockey had better watch out what he says in Turbull’s office in case the Nixon tape machine is running. Any ‘inducements’ or overt threats might be used against him.
Why do the Greens have different rules for NSW Greens?
For anyone that is completely and utterly tragic, I’m aggregating all the goss about the spill as it comes in.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/11/30/spillwatch/
Just a warning though – it really is tragic.
Less than zero?
Some might call the labor approach professionalism Diogenes
@289
Or does his master reside in Wollstonecraft?
And whose master resides in these cosy little enclaves:
Australian Coal Association
Australian Institute of Petroleum
Australian Petroleum and Exploration Association
Minerals Council of Australia
National Generators’ Forum
Australian Aluminium Council
Australasian (Iron and Steel) Slag Association
Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries?
Zoomster, it’s not a simple as saying ‘they have even less freedom of conscience than the ALP’, because the Greens MPs wouldn’t stand for office unless they genuinely have no problem with the Greens’ party platform and trust that it won’t change something that contravenes their principles.
3.1 of the Greens consitution:
“The Charter is the document of agreement which defines the basic principles and aims of The Greens. As such Members and branches of The Greens may not publicly forward ideas at variance with the Charter without calling into question their continued membership of The Greens”
Despite that, the Charter does leave a lot of wiggle room for negotiation but the Greens MPs will never agree as a block to vote on something that directly contravenes something in the Charter. EG., I believe the Greens would not agree to welfare payment quarantining as it violates this part of the charter: “To eradicate poverty by developing initiatives that address the causes as well as the symptoms of poverty.” I’d have to dig through http://greensmps.org.au/taxonomy/term/118/all though to see whether that was always the case.
How come we havent heard from Christpher Pyne on any of this??? Im curious to hear what he has to say.
I find it far worse than that! I only wish it was possible to say what I really think!
It’s a pity someone couldn’t slip something down line and blow up “one” particular PC!
Well they don’t on the CPRS. 52% of Green voters want the CPRS passed, 32% are opposed:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/files/2009/11/cprsbyparty.PNG
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/11/18/global-warming-and-cprs-polling-2/
This is wrong too. Labor MPs debate policies in the caucus and are bound by the caucus decision. “head office” has nothing to do with it.
Correction: 35% are opposed.
ruawake, every Greens party at the state level is remarkably different from other ones. I don’t really know enough about Greens political history to comment further – but I am learning!
The Liberals are desperately trying to avoid a spill, piling the pressure on Turnbull to simply bow out in Hockey’s favour.
http://twitter.com/Latikambourke
Basically all the Liberal party heirachy are taking turns pleading with him to resign and hand over to Hockey.
Joe Hockey is the stooge for Minchin and the ultra right. The conservative right will do anything to get control of the party. Looks like they have done it, even though they have just about killed off their party.
So it’s even worse than I thought, deconst.
Every single one of them agrees with every single word of the platform.
This is not the kind of attitude that creates a dynamic and flexible party – it is people within your party, pushing for change, which does this.
A party consisting entirely of people who only think the one way cannot possibly understand the diversity of views out there in voter land or represent them effectively.
Just to correct some misapprehensions – individual Labor MPs can say whatever they like about anything UNTIL the issue has been decided in a caucus meeting which they have been part of.
If you’ve marched into the party room, filled with people with a very similar outlook on life as you have, and can’t convince them you’re right, chances are that you aren’t.
Regardless, this sort of solidarity – put your arguments forward and if you lose, take it on the chin – is standard operation for most of the organisations in our society. It is a basic tenet of Boards, local councils and even of my local soccer club.
That’s because it works.
ShowsOn, the Greens don’t pretend to represent the people who vote Green, the Greens represent those who are members of the Greens party. The Greens hope that the quality of their policies make enough of a strongly convincing argument for the Australian public to vote for them.
If a Greens voter is genuinely concerned that the Greens are heading in the wrong direction in voting against the ETS, then the best thing he can do is join his local Greens group and help make his view known.
But Turnbull has assured us that “he will win”.
My prediction is that when he loses (whichever way), he will quit politics and go into business with Geoffrey Edelsten (the master of villainous reinvention).
Yeah, so they are like Nick Minchin who thinks the Liberals should do whatever the wackos in their party say they should do.
I guess it isn’t quite as bad for the Greens because they have never pretended to be trying to win Government.
Unless you prefer the Libs style of minority-whinging-until-they-get-their-way-ness
Sideshow Bob is and will be largely irrelevant, but I still like him though. Extra senators huh. If the nationals go it alone we’ll see who holds BOP
Basically they are trying to arrange today for Hockey to be unanimously elected leader.
They are effectively trying to call off the spill. They want to be able to say the party is perfectly unified behind Hockey. even if Hockey runs against Turnbull and Turnbull gets 25 votes that will still look bad.
If the Nationals tear up their Senate agreements with the Liberals they will lose Senate seats to the Liberals and won’t even count as a Senate party.
If the nationals split with the liberals, would they even get any senators elected? Their primary vote has never been particularly impressive in any polls I’ve seem. Their only hope would seem to be the maths working in their favour such that they can get a decent number of preferences from the Libs after they get two or three of their own elected.
Well I’m not getting my hopes up about the death of the Liberal party just yet. The 1980s aren’t that long ago.
I realise that the more ideological element of this schism differentiates it from the Howard/Peacock/anyone but Howard/Howard tussles of the 80s and early 90s, but they were still pretty rough times for the Libs, which they survived.
Has Hockey actually said that he’ll ditch the ETS agreement if he becomes leader? If not, I’d be hesitant to assume that he will in order to secure Minchin’s support.
Probably 1 in QLD and NSW.
Zoomster, again you’re simplifying matters. The Greens work on building consensus. What the consensus is on a world view, the policy must follow. A consensus leaves room for private dissent.
There is a time and a place for a dissenting view – that is their local group meetings, the state conferences and the National conference – but it is not in the chamber.
The Greens are not so dissimilar in that respect from the ALP and the Liberals. Every party needs a ‘party face’ to not confuse the voting public.
I would argue however that the Greens are much more likely to create a dynamic and flexible party than the two major parties because power is vastly more decentralised. The agenda is not set by the head office – the agenda is set by the Charter and by the views of the members. I would say only in situations where both are not known and where a consensus cannot be built in a reasonable timeframe – which really should be rare – would a Greens MP be free to speak their mind. I believe that’s why there’s a Parliamentary Liaison Committee – a sort of ‘elder council’ of Greens – to assist Greens MPs to put forward a view most likely to be given consensus.
Well that is all this comes down to, how be a hypocrite Hockey wants everyone to think he is.
And this whole thing is just stupid. Let’s say they get support to delay until Feb (Fielding will vote for that), then what the hell do they do when Feb comes around? Do they vote for it then, or do they block it.
If Hockey wants to be a leader he should just go all the way and instruct the Liberal senators tomorrow to block the bill. IMO that would show more leadership than delaying it until Feb which is just gutless time wasting.
Interesting that Turnbull referred to Senator Minchin and others as “wreckers”.
It’s a more polite way of saying nutcase wackaloon drongos.
deconst
the agenda for the ALP is not set by Head Office, either, as we keep pointing out to you.
Its policies are set by ALP members; I myself have been influential in getting both Federal and State policy and rule changes up…and I am virtually nobody.
It’s like anything important, though; you have to want it enough and you have to work for it. It’s obviously more difficult in a ‘big’ party to do this than in a little one.
anyway, the point is: labor party policies are also arrived at by consensus, and this involves intensive consultation with party members.
Well, I’m kind of interested in this allusion:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wrecking_%28Soviet_crime%29
It’s cool that PB jargon like Sloppy joe and Mad monk make it into the papers increasingly. How about Bitchen for Mitchin
http://twitter.com/Latikambourke
Turnbull’s popular.
http://www.smh.com.au/polls/politics/results.html
Maybe all this office shuffling is just to deliver Xmas cards……..maybe?????
Essential Research: 58-42, up from 55-45.
Quite apart from delaying the CPRS bill, the Libs should be very concerned about the precedent they are setting in ousting Turnbull. The majority of voters support an ETS. The majority of the party room supported amending the governments bill. The majority of the party room supported those amendments (why some would use the backbencher numbers alone astounds me). Then the leader elected by the majority of the party room announced the result.
Now that leader is been ousted. Sounds like the minority win. A very bad precedent
And the Greens steady on 8% steady as she goes. lol
Prediction: Turnbull leaves Liberal Party, starts own party and becomes next Premier of NSW.
“Bad news for the Labor Party?”
http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=9763
Someone asked about Pyne earlier. Just spoke to someone who said he’s tearing his hair out. Thinks denying or delaying on AGW is going to wipe out the Libs. Says there is a whole generation of voters in school who all believe in CC who will start voting over the next few elections and they will never support the Libs if they are a dinosaur party.
Hard to argue with that logic.
I think that one day, Penny Wong is going to explode and when she does, it will be like Krakatoa. I would love to see that (from a very safe distance)
Turnbull has left parliament – the building that is.
Probably wats to get away from the endless stream of visitors urging him to quit.
Good move I say – go home have a couple of drinks and a pleasant dinner then roll up for the spill.
Hang in there Mal – make these bastards wear the decision.
13% and 12%
Is anyone else surprised that Newspoll/ER/Nielsen aren’t showing a bigger swing against the Libs?
How hopeless can you get before some people will stop voting for you?
Diogenes
NSW state labor would suggest, quite hopeless
Humphries and Troeth expected to vote with Govt. and Greens to support a vote this week.
And of course he would be one of the first to go given his margin.
There’s always a core of die hards who will never switch their vote.
I blame ‘compulsory’ voting for that.
Link?
Written by Fran Kelly by any chance?
No. I think Turnbull’s strong stance against the loonies over the last week probably helped limit the damage. That may be about to change however…
Familial contact.
David Speers on Sky.
[Written by Fran Kelly by any chance?
Shanahan was the same today. Saying that support for the CPRS isn't very strong.
What happened to Humpries saying he would not vote for the guillotine?
Not a good source.
No surprise Pyne is worried; a) he will be demoted, and b) he has a decent chance of losing his seat at the next election.
Shanners saw the light over the last 6 months, but it seems he’s back at it lately. That guy sure can’t read an electorate, and yet he still gets paid to do it. Mind boggling.
Think of it this way. Troeth is retiring, so has nothing to lose. Without Humphries the Liberals could run the risk of losing their ACT Senate seat to the Greens.
wRONg #112 or #113 perhaps?
I was talking about essential research bob
It goes against Humphries earlier statements, but there seem to have been plenty of about-faces in recent days…
Well if you read his article he doesn’t seem to care about the broader electorate, he takes the Minchin view that the Liberal leader should just reflect the views of the nutcase faction of his party.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/after-the-tumult-libs-get-back-on-track/story-e6frg6zo-1225805155391
A couple of posts back, I envisaged a nice sane Liberal party with MT as leader and the rabble consigned to the backbench.
The alternative is, of course, Abbott or Hockey (the puppet version) as leader and the wackaloons promoted.
I would also assume that it would mean NOTHING getting through the Senate until the next election.
It would actually be doing Hockey a favour. If the Liberals don’t vote the legislation down this week, then it just remains a problem that will fester until February when SURELY they will FINALLY decide what to do.
like a madman with the runs, shanna’s is sure to spread it around.
What, the silly ER poll that takes it’s samples from it’s membership base of 100,000?
That’s probably what the Nationals game is!
Try and maximise its overall vote (even at the expense of damaging the Coalition) to try and increase their strength in the Senate so that they hold enough numbers to be in BOP situation and wedge both Labor and the Liberals!
Shades of the days of “Black Jack McEwan”! That’s when they “really”delivered for the bush! Ah, the glory days!
I could swear I’ve seen you expressing ‘concern’ over the ALP’s recent slide in the ER polls.
Could Hockey be the new Costello? – will he or won’t he ?
Shows on,
especially for you
http://www.essentialmedia.com.au/Media/Essential_Report_261009.pdf
Only 25% of Labor voters think the ETS has the ballance about right.
HA,HA still a lot of work to do, better get out there and spin to your own voters
LOL! Senator Barnyard asked Wong the same question twice, so on the second occasion she stood up said nothing and sat back down.
If Turnbull loses. He will not retreat and be quiet. He will start a new party with his own money and run on the platform that it’s time for an independent Third Force in Australian politics that is not single issue and Senate focus. He will paint Hockey as the puppet of the looney Right and go for the small l liberal, doctor wives, progressive, and republican votes.
If i were the Greens, i start worrying.
Anyone who thinks this will happen is silly and does not understand the realities of the parties, the Senate, and voting patterns.
Nice attempt at a troll, but completely removed from reality
Zedar,
If the Nationals ran in virtually every seat at the next election, they would pick up a swag of Senate votes and could quite conceivably increase their Senate numbers at the expense of both the Liberals, FF and Labor!
They wouldn’t be concerned about being in Coalition, just play the spoiler tactics in the Senate. Far more power for them there!
And yet 51% of Greens want it passed, while 35% want it blocked. So the Green Senators are actually voting against what most of their supporters want.
The Labor hacks said how the Greens would pay in the polls for their stance, yet they’ve gone to 12% and 13% with a Nielsen record.
I think we can safely assume Labor hacks are still in their bubbles and have no grasp or concept of electoral reality
Yes Bob that one that magically correlates with all the other polls – but it must be wrong about the Greens though. I actually think highly of Bob brown and the federal Greens and i respect their desicions except here. As for their Victorian state counterparts- they are a bunch of obstructionary muppets. Fancy having to rely on the DLP to get things through!!!
I doubt Turnbull would set up a third party. He would have no chance of becoming Prime Minister, so he would see no point in doing it.
It is. As far as the Green vote goes, ER is the rogue.
12% and 13%
They’re running on joint tickets in New South Wales, Queensland (well of course) and Victoria in the Senate. I suppose they could split the ticket but it’d be a big risk for them to take.
Scorpio
Nats polling only shows 4-5% max, so I’m not sure that running in all seats would necessarily deliver much for them.
I know that having a lower house candidate to funnel preferences towards you in the Senate is a plus, but anyone who wants to can vote for the Nats in the Senate at present.
So I’m not sure that the Nats would gain much by running in every lower house seat – and certainly not enough to cover the considerable expense that involves.
The coalition historically has gone in and out of joint tickets many times. They go back on the joint ticket in the end because the Nats know it’s the only way to hold more seats.
Hey Bob
what are you going to do when your merry-go-round stops.
think about it.
bob @ 371
again, not something I’ve said or necessarily believe, but I think the Labor hacks you’re referring to have talked about what will happen IF the legislation is rejected, which it hasn’t been yet.
So you may well be right, but these polls do not prove that you are. Next ones, perhaps.
wRONg
the Greens want A bill passed not THIS bill.
big dif try again
Dear Poss, my apology. I have failed.
So the greens want to be known as the “blockers” of an ETS … very smart politics that. There goes the baby and the bath water again …
12% Newspoll and record 13% Nielsen
The Greens are forbidden to use this word, they have not earned the respect.
For the next two weeks, any criticism of the Green shall get my 12% and 13%
response. It’s gonna be great 
Wrong. The question was:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/11/18/global-warming-and-cprs-polling-2/#more-6397
We really need a spam filter…
latest:
Ahh so now I get it, the ETS opposition is for short term political gain … the greens are even smarter than I thought
So you have avoided the fact that 52% of Green voters want the CPRS passed compared with 35% that want it blocked too.
You’re as bad as marg.
Even more so than the Liberals, the Green Senators are voting against the wishes of their supporters.
I’ve tried to find the poll question which suggests this but have been having trouble (genuinely) can anyone point me in the right direction? A link would help.
SO
Have you been rorting this AdelaideNow poll?
Hockey / Billson ticket
Stuff QLD its about time Victoria got back into the game.
12% and 13%
http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/11/30/mungo-why-turnbull-is-an-uncomfortable-fit/
What you and the greens average in intellegence tests
No. Usually those polls are 65/35 but this one has gone mental. Is it possible because the ETS has received so much coverage over the last week?
Dutton is over rated anyway.
ALP 58% For the next two weeks, any criticism of the ALP shall get my 58% and 57% response. It’s gonna be great ………..It’s going to be pretty boring really
Back in your hole tr@ll!
Your mask of ignorance is starting to get a bit of a glow about it now!
12% is a result from an intellegence test? Whoa.
Gusface
That is unlikely to be true.
The Greens are largely atheists.
There is a strong negative correlation between religiosity and intelligence.
Therefore Greens are likely to be more intelligent than Labor or Lib.
Um, I agree? You think I want the Libs to be in a winning position? LOL
I don’t think the Liberal factions are fuzzy when a faction leader such as Nick Minchin can knock off a leader, even when his personal views are in the minority!
This blog would blow a big hole in that theory…
They may as well now! The Coalition is as good as finished now anyway!
Barnaby saw to that!
Also, I think there is strong opinion in the Libs to cast them loose anyway!
I’m just wondering if there is anyone here who still thinks
1. Turnbull will remain leader
2. The ETS will pass
Speak now or forever hold your peace.
And the really dumb Greens like Jason Wood resign and join the Liberals. He was one of the few Liberals that said he would vote against it because it didn’t go far enough!
Diogenes, 1) No; 2) Yes.
Just some thoughts on the discussion regarding the Greens.
Climate change is front and centre an environmental issue, so I would expect the Greens, who exist primarily because of this issue, would benefit in the polling, and they have.
However, I posted something earlier, which is relevant to this discussion:
No.
Not this year. But there is a small chance that it will be voted down this week.
If Hockey doesn’t run, absolutely.
1. Turnbull will remain leader – nope.
2. The ETS will pass – yes, eventually.
I’d like a viable Democrat-style party to come back. But it won’t happen.
Diogenes, I always thought that was “forever hold your piece”
I guess not.
They vote Labor now.
Turnbull to journos:
Articles like that at 333 are simply indulging in idle fantasy.
Any serious political commentator would have a better appreciation of the resilience of Australia’s two party system.
You telling me Clive Palmer can’t afford it?
Even if they only picked up 1% in seats where they normally don’t run, plus pick up quite a decent percentage in seats where they previously were strong, plus an increased Senate vote in their heartland seats, then they could produce a big shock!
Don’t think for a moment that they haven’t been crunching numbers for a while now and Barnaby’s rural tour would be just the right strategy in that direction!
What the Libs are doing now just falls into their hands even more!
It is more than food for thought! I may be wrong and I may be right, who knows!
ShowsOn
Dutton wont have a seat after 2010.
Pointless having him as Deputy Dawg.
I was reading somewhere a while back that the Democrat vote mostly went half half between Labor and the Greens with Liberals picking up only a small amount. And some of the Labor Left vote who wouldn’t vote Dem have gone Green.
ltep
Are you saying the ETS will pass this year?
If so, what is your scenario?
BTW
I think Labor only needs 1 Lib Senator to guillotine. I’m pretty sure the Greens and X will vote to stop debate.
Diogenes, having thought more the answer is ‘probably not, but it’s possible’. I don’t think it’ll get referred to a committee, the bills will go to a final vote this week. What I’m not sure of is whether the ‘moderates’ previously reported to be in support of the bill will stick to their position once the leadership changes.
Glen
I think the speculation has been for Dutton (attempt) to parachute (again) into a different seat – Fairfax?
This is what is at the heart of the Liberal party’s fear. They’ve given up worrying about the ALP, they’re worried about the Nats taking seats off them in three cornered contests.
Barnaby will have stopped the decline in the Nats, but it will be at the expense of the Libs.
The Coalition will hold it together until the 2010 election.
Then they will get hammered.
Then all hell will break loose.
Sky News says Turnbull backers say he’ll only get 10 votes if Hockey challenges.
Aristotle
Would this really be a widespread consideration?
Alex Somlyay: next Ambassador to… Hungary?
Why kind of “offer he can’t refuse” could entice Somlyay out of Fairfax? This is the Opposition, after all.
The Nats lose seats to the Libs because they run dud candidates. It’s not just a lack of product differentiation.
“So you have avoided the fact that 52% of Green voters want the CPRS passed compared with 35% that want it blocked too.”
The same poll has 11% of Greens saying that concerns about Global Warming are exaggerated. The sample size of Greens in that poll is too small to really suggest with conviction that more Greens support passing the CPRS compared with blocking it.
That’s what scared the Libs last week. The feedback from their hard core base was, “we are going to vote Nationals.”
Somlyay would not quit for Dutton under any circumstance. He is guaranteed pre-selection so they can’t dump him.
Plus Dutton would not get pre-selection in Fairfax.
If Turnbull established a new party that should put an end to any thoughts of an early election. Giving him and his supporters time to establish themselves and, should any other Members join him, time to use their incumbency to greatest effect would be a sound approach.
If Hockey doesn’t run, yes.
Probably nothing in the gift of the Federal government. An issue when the liberals are out of power almost everywhere, the carrots are few and far between
Wouldn’t matter on this issue. Hard core Libs would have little trouble switching to the Nats, dud candidates or not.
deconst @430,
Yet that didn’t stop the Greens from relying on that sample to selectively promote certain of their positions. They can’t have it both ways.
According to the breaking news feed on ABC Online, Hockey has told Turnbull he intends to challenge and Turnbull isn’t falling on his sword.
But ‘we’re going to vote National’ isn’t a realistic scenario, either.
Even if the Nats do run in every seat, it is highly unlikely that – even with anti ETSers jumping ship – they’d take seats from the Libs. And the prefs would flow back to them, anyway.
To my knowledge, all recent three cornered contests in previously nat seats have gone strongly to the Libs.
Of course, if the Libs are at the stage where they’re jumping at shadows, they may be paranoid enough to believe it’s possible.
Come on Joe – get off your bum and tell us what you are doing.
Rewi, I believe the Greens didn’t use the crosstabs to support their position, I may be wrong though.
Rewi,
A centre right party committed to the Governments CPRS would draw support from the Libs and those who’ve parked their votes with the Greens.
They might even have 7 Senators which sidelines the Greens, Independants and Trogs.
I’d imagine they’d gain Senators in most States at the expense of the Libs and Greens.
Maybe Malcolm can buy the DLP or Democrats franchise shells.
Correct, zoomster, it’s the political “reality” justification the denialists used to support their case last week.
turnbull presser in 10 mins
hockey halfway thru pie
Hey, has anyone seen the Nielsen and Newspoll Green vote? I’m wanting to know if the stance the Greens have taken on the ETS has done them bad or good in the electorate…
deconst,
I believe the research being criticised here was the same Galaxy poll referred to in this Greens media release:
http://bob-brown.greensmps.org.au/content/media-release/new-poll-shows-australians-back-scientists-and-greens-emissions-trading
Did Barnaby Joyce just tell Penny Wong something like “You are not going to emasculate my ability to ask questions”??
The deep seated fears coming out
Are we about to see the end of the Liberal Party at the next election. The ALP will destroy Hockey before the election. Can you imaging the next parliamentary session with questions of principle continually being asked.
It is fair that the electorate will get to solve teh problem of a disfunctional opposition
Hey, has anyone seen the Nielsen and Newspoll Green vote? I’m wanting to know if the stance the Greens have taken on the ETS has done them bad or good in the electorate…
Keep an eye on that margin of error now.
Barnaby Joyce waffling about trees . . .
Penny
then barnyard talks about cutting out balls
lol
What are you? Six years old?
What’s all this “If Hockey doesn’t run, yes.” stuff!!
That’s part of the prediction. Of course Turnbull will win and the ETS pass if Hockey doesn’t run.
Sheesh!!
There are probably as many green voters that would like any CPRS legislation passed as it’s now, as many dissatisfied Labor voters that want stronger targets and aren’t happy with the concessions made to the Liberals.
If there is something I can gather from the polls is that the Greens will increase n# in the Senate in the next election and would hold the BoP. What Labor does in between now and election time, it’s going to depend on the Liberals and themselves to a certain extent.
To blame Greens for adhering to their own Charter and electoral support platform, it’s ridiculous in extreme.
Labor will politically do what it has to……and can. Same as the rest of parties.
I think Barnaby better be careful – Wong might just demonstrate her knowledge of the term emasculation . . . and the beautiful thing about Senate red is that the blood won’t show too badly
LOL! Wong just tried to impersonate Joyce’s head explosions when he gets angry.
Well, Sky News says Abbott would go very close to winning a leadership contest against Turnbull.
Hockey might have won the battle, but he will lose the war. There is no way he can wriggle out of the ETS issue.
I just had a look. Both of them went up!
12% and 13%! One of them a new record!!
Hockey is challenging, which means Abbott will not.
Hockey has reportedly not yet conceded to Minchin’s demand for a delay on the ETS.
Turnbull on now
Aristotle,
Did you also notice that the Nats President expressed disappointment that they didn’t run candidates in Bradford and Higgins!
That points to some concerted number crunching and the fact that the Nats have been virtually running feral within the Coalition lately, tells me that they don’t give a toss for being in coalition whilst in opposition!
With what’s happening now with the Libs, I can easily see the Nats taking full advantage of the disarray and just running their own race even without a formal withdrawal from the Coalition!
the Libs will take care of that when they have their own current problems sorted!
I can’t see much happening in that regard either, so while the Libs are so distracted, the Nats will be going for broke behind the scenes getting ready for the election!
A question here Aristotle, if the Nats ran a seperate ticket in all electorates, would they do better in a DD election as against a normal half Senate, General Election!
This could shape their tactics somewhat also!
“I am the leader”
Wong manages to tire out Barnyard.
Dio
1.Yes
2.Yes
Malcolm said hockey said he would not support a spill
Wtf? Has Turnbull gone nuts? His presser is bizarre.
Hockey will not vote for the spill. chicken!!!!
“Address those metaphyical questions to Mr Hockey”
Not Joe
Turnbull presser
http://www.abc.net.au/streaming/abc-video2.asx
Hockey is looking more and more piss-weak, no balls.
Hockey will hide under the table when the spill is voted on and then when the spill is on he’ll trow his hat in the ring.
Yeah Finns joe’s a big fat cowardly custard tart
Then why was Turnbull so angry after the meeting?
I think Turnbull is playing games like the other side is. I think Hockey will spill against him but Turnbull is saying he won’t.
Which of course is Turnbull’s whole point. Hockey seems to be suffering Costelloitis.
Rewi, the poll that PB has been discussing, where 51% of Greens were in support of passing the CPRS and 35% were against, is the Morgan one detailed here: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/11/18/global-warming-and-cprs-polling-2/#more-6397
The same poll had 11% of Greens saying that concerns over Global Warming are exaggerated – and with a 8% sample of 674, it would be difficult to support any proposition based on the Greens crosstab.
As for the Galaxy poll conducted by the Greens, I have my own concerns about it, mainly due to polling methodology and not on inferring outcomes on small sample sizes.
Except unlike Costello it would seem Hockey has enough backers in caucus to pull on the spill, and apparently to win on the motion.
This press conference seems to be a bit of a waste of time. He’s basically just saying “No change”
Clues: Liberal Party has to be the Party of “today” and “tomorrow”. hmmmmmmmmm
Turnbull just yelled at the reporters telling them to ask Hockey what Hockey was going to do and then holds a presser and tells them what Hockey is going to do.
He’s lost it.
deconst, my mistake. Thanks.
I like malcolm’s style.
Bitchslap your own party in front of parliament
chutzpah
Vera, yes, sloppy and indecisive do come to mind.
And there is no change unless Hockey clearly says he’s against Turnbull in a leadership spill. Has he said it yet?
Malcolm says he and Joe had a meeting on the weekend
Zoomster,
The Nats wouldn’t give a toss about how many HoR seats they might win! It’s all to do with maximising their Senate vote which they could easily do by running in every seat!
The Reps ballot paper is separate from the Senate one! Have enough Senate votes flow to you in “every” electorate and you improve your chances of a significant vote percentage in each Senate division!
If the Nats aren’t seriously contemplating this, then they really are politically naive!
deconst,
Yes, I commented on this at the time because a friend of mine was one of the respondents.
Turnbull is being too obvious in his “i have nothing to worry about” jovial approach. if it’s fooling anyone, they are fools.
Is Turnbull channelling Rudd?
..which wasnt in the media because neither party told a reporter…
There Rodent and Dutton…
At howies?
LOL! Turnbull just reiterated that the amended CPRS has the support of the Opposition.
Well that presser was a whole lot of nothing, cept that the oneupsmanship within the Libs continue…
Just as long as Hockey doesn’t spill his guts!
The point he was making is that the party room, both the coalition and the Libs individually, approved to vote with the government on the amended CPRS. Last week a spill motion was defeated. He maintains that the opposition’s position is yes for the Rudd ETS.
Therefore, officially, the coalition still supports the Rudd ETS.
cuppa
feck! tidal wave! head for the hills LOL
Turnbull:
Not yet, but it appears that if a spill motion is successful he will then challenge.
Doubt that Turnbull secured anymore votes in the partyroom with that performance
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26420057-5005962,00.html
There we have it. Joe won’t vote for a spill but he’ll contest for the leadership.
This is just hilarious!
Turnbull’s not an idiot – he knows he’s finished – he is just applying a good old fashioned scorched earth policy.
If Turnbull wins the Liberal spill, the next election will be much more difficult to win for Labour.
As a somewhat
Labour supporter, I hope Abbott or Hockey are Liberal leaders tomorrow.
Scorps — out of context: I was talking about the prospects of the Nats taking Lower House seats from the Libs, as a stated reason for the Libs opposition for the ETS, not responding to your previous post.
I know the Nats won’t take Lower House seats, but apparently the Libs don’t.
I get the feeling that if Turnbull is defeated in a leadership ballot he will simply refuse to accept the results, declare “I am the leader” and tell the rest of the
Liberal party to get stuffed. The Liberals will then be forced to form their own political party, The Ancient and Mystic society of No Turnbulls. Turnbull will remain the leader of the Liberal party, which consists of soley him.
Turnbull could move to the Democrats become their leader. It’s like the perfect company shell he could just buy. throw a bunch of his money at it and get a handful of Libs to defect. Remember Don Chipp was a liberal looked over by Fraser. he would be a perfect fit for them. This is brilliant……It would be like the amazing Mrs Pritchard. Overnight they could become the thitrd force in politics again.
In all seriousness I think that this would be an amazing/breathtaking yet possible outcome.
ania
LABOR
If Turnbull wins the spill, the far-right crazies will continue to undermine him, making it much easier for Labor to win. Last week will be just a precursor of the instability ahead.
Turnbull has painted sloppy further into a corner.
If he wants the job he is going to have to :
1) Openly challenge turnbull and get blood on his hands.
2) Do a massive and damaging backdown to his previously stated position on CPRS.
3) Then become minchins poddle.
4) In a likelihood have to wear the blame for the coalition losing big time in 2010.
5) He will also be betraying the other moderate members of his party.
Shorthand, sloppy has to grow a set of political balls for the first time in his career and
then live with the consequences. He is in totally new territory.
Take a good deep bite of the shite sandwich sloopy – either end, it doesn’t matters – that is unless you have the balls to stand up and do the right thing for the country.
The No Bull Party?
The No Hoo Haa Party might sue
Turnbull is maximising the pressure on Hockey, and also hopelessly comprimising him as the new leader. Hockey will not vote for the spill. The majority will. Then he will challenge
zoomster,
Cheers, no worries!
30 seats as opposed to 35?
I doubt that Turnbull could be bothered with a new party (unless it could win, which I doubt), but Progressive Liberals might be its name
I don’t get Hockey’s hesitation to vote for a spill. Does he really think the people are going to split hairs and think “Well he held discussions to take over the leadership even though he had previously said he only wanted Mr Swan’s job… but he didn’t vote for the spill so it’s all ok then!”.
If Hockey votes against a spill, he is supporting Turnbull.
If Turnbull loses the spill motion he (Turnbull) will still stand.
Then Hockey will stand against the person he just supported?
Bizarre.
Laocoon #424
As in Alex Somlyay’s seat? That’s in Mal Brough’s mentor’s seat?
If he’s going to vacate it for anyone, it’ll be Mal B. But given Brough’s and Dutton’s ability to get their electorates off side, the LNP might be willing to let “the devil they know” stay.
The Lib hierarchy love Brough & Dutton; see them as “future leaders of the Liberal Party”, but they’re on the nose in their electorates. Says something disturbing about the Liberal Party. “Future leaders” can turn the narrowest of marginals into “blue ribbon? seats.
He didn’t support Turnbull, he voted against a spill motion.
I think its a fair rationale that an MP can be for party unity and vote against a spill motion, but if it passes, then it’s no holds barred game on…
Alfred Deakin’s Protectionists didn’t need a majority for him to become Prime Minister.
If the spill motion doesn’t get up tomorrow morning, then all this drama has been for nothing!
Turnbull will have prevailed and the Rebels will have to tuck their tails between their legs and slink away!
The media Wednesday will go absolutely bananas!
I also note the House of Representatives aren’t holding question time today and there’s no cardboard cut-outs of Kevin Rudd and jeers about him being a ‘part-time Prime Minister’.
OzPol
Hasn’t Mal Brough moved to Melbourne? Glen might have to find him a seat down there…
Joe needs a pay rise money with a new little sprog at home.
What a silly comment. The Protectionists won the largest number of seats in 1901.
He only rents with dutton in canberra, I dont think dutton stays at joes home in sydney
Meanwhile Kev will be on the cover of Rolling Stone
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,26419981-29277,00.html
Liberals don’t believe in payrises – for others anyway.
True, Labor. Sincere apologies for still making that grammatically mistake
Cuppa, electorates are a funny thing in how they react. Turnbull is coming out of this one smelling like roses specially IN Labor swinging electoral land.
The more the Liberal party undermines him and he holds firm, the more appeal to the electorate conservative centre – the one that delivers government and where Rudd is at right now.
If Turnbull survives the spill and controls the party – the fight is on with Rudd in the next election.
What is it about SA that is can elect a Wong, a Minchin and a Xenophon???
You’ve been smoking far too much of the green stuff
Ania, Turnbull is a political carcass hanging in the breeze, waiting to be cut down (with apologies for slightly misquoting Paul Keating).
Wong and Minchin are elected off of major party Senate tickets, and Xenophon is a political freak?
I still don’t know how he managed to get 5.5% less than the Liberal Party, at 20.5% in 2006.
Have you ever drunk Adelaide water?
Possum pollytics wrap of the presser:
bob1234,
Majority in this sense does not equate to largest number of seats.
It’s not catagorically bad here, it has pockets of good and bad. I’m in a good area.
Vera,
He’s a big polly fixture with laws and figures,
And he’s loved everywhere he goes
He talks a real beauty and he talks about policy,
At any international show.
He’s passed all kind of bills, to give us all kind of thrills,
But there’s only one kind of thrill you know
It’s the thrill that’ll get you when you get your picture
On the Cover of the Rolling Stone.
Yes but the Protectionists held the largest number of seats. The Free Traders came a close second, with Labor only on something like 15% and 15 seats, but they held the balance of power.
Free Trader (later Anti-Socialist) vote more or less stayed stagnant in 1903 and 1906, with votes going heavily from the Protectionists to Labor, to the point where Labor had more seats than the Protectionists but let Deakin keep office for the time being. Then Labor booted him, held their own minority government, then the two anti-Labor parties merged, formed their government, before Labor won majority government in 1910.
That sort of formation will not occur if Turnbull decides to form his own party. We have a well entrenched 2PP system.
Weekly predictions of a new party taking dominance in Australia’s 2PP system always makes me amused.
I thought we in NSW were supposed to have taken all of that out of the Murray?
Though the signficant upside is the alternative…we have no water, let us drink wine
Wong must have been elected by the good water drinkers
bob1234,
The point I originally made was that Deakin did not have or need a majority of seats in the House (50%+1) in order to become Prime Minister.
You can retract your jibe about that being silly any time you like.
This says it all really………
http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/opinion/alan-moir/20090907-fdxk.html
If Turnbull survives this one, the fight will be more than with Mr Rudd. He will have two concurrent fights on his hands: the one with the far-right crazies in his “party”, who hate him and everything he believes, and the one with Kevin Rudd and Labor. Both will be out to get him in the neck.
There’s also his public perception working against him (shared by many who know or have worked with him), of poor judgement, rashness, a bully etc. Qualities not necessarily befitting a leader of a country.
There’s also the 2pp average over two years around 57:43 that he’d have to turn around, against a popular first-term government and the benefits of incumbency.
Yes, he is strong and determined etc, bullheaded. But in the end, the forces against him (including his own personal failings) will be more than he can conquer.
IMHopefulOpinion
Movement in the senate
Either Hockey is playing a highly masterful Machiavellian game with his plethora of meetings and consultations………………….or he is merely flapping around like Moby Dick on the deck of the Good Ship Liberal, overloading the bilge pumps while the ship plunges into Davy Jones locker.
redwombat
ROFL
Pollytics/Possum
I don’t know who said this as I haven’t been paying much attention but they would have to come close to being banned for posting from a parallel universe.
Turnbull is NOT a political carcass until he’s ousted from the Liberal leadership.
At this point, I don’t know if he has the Liberal n# despite what the MSM keeps bleating on.
Laocoon
Only if Glen wants to waste a safe, blue-ribbon seat and strengthen the Minchin-Abbott faction. Brough might hold it for a while, until the electorate wakes up; so 2013 is a repeat of:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/26/2101116.htm?site=elections/federal/2007
This was one of “non-marginals” the ALP knew it could win. He’s ex-army (Dutton ex-police) and apparently it eventually showed in a not very positive way (Dutton ditto). Apparently, by 2007 women in his electorate detested him (based on electorate survey; was published in the CM – that’s all I remember). Then he threw a monumental (& very public) hissy fit when the proposed LNP didn’t hand him Presidency on a plate (will be in CM & TV footage). He’s said to belong to the faction that wrecked the QLD Libs.
Might also be worth checking how he voted on “the day after pill” and stem cell research, and run a wee bit of research in his old electorate.
http://images.theage.com.au/2009/11/20/874813/moir-600×400.jpg
HAHA
http://images.theage.com.au/2009/11/18/866504/alanmoir-600×400.jpg
Gold.
Cuppa, I said surviving and CONTROLLING the party.
Me at 539:
Do you honestly think Turnbull is not dead in the water ania?
http://images.theage.com.au/2009/10/15/791911/moir161009-600×400.jpg
Love it!
Obviously these Liberals have not learned anything from the Howard-Costello affair.
Turnbull is doing exactly what Howard did. You want me out, you have to blast out and own the result.
Hockey is doing exactly what Costello did. Shilly shally, yes, no, maybe, perhaps, please sir can i have it on a plate. And see what happened to Costello.
What donkeys these people are.
And it was irrelevant because that situation is implausible to apply to Turnbull.
That was not the point of your jibe, and you know it.
You were wrong and can’t face admitting it.
Finns
sadly the MSM are wRONg again.
malcolm to stay
ETS to pass
Though it does distract from grech,ETS,economy etc etc
http://images.theage.com.au/2009/10/12/785170/1310editoon-600×400.jpg
That has to be the best cartoon Barnaby i’ve ever seen.
Rewi you replied to
With
You know precisely well that you were applying one circumstance to a theoretical other circumstance.
“I don’t know who said this as I haven’t been paying much attention but they would have to come close to being banned for posting from a parallel universe.”
Damn!
http://images.theage.com.au/2009/10/08/778750/moir-600×400.jpg
Very harsh!
“?Do you honestly think Turnbull is not dead in the water ania?”
Nup, not yet. Not until Hockey challenges him in the spill.
i assume that if hockey wasnt running, he would have said so. he will vote against a spill, then run against Turnbull then win.
Keep hoping, Ania.
What if Hockey and Turnbull have done a deal – to feed Abbott a shit sandwich?
Yes, I was, bob1234. I was questioning the suggestion that a party would need to win an election in order for its leader to become Prime Minister.
I was also drawing an historical comparison with a figure I suspect Mr Turnbull feels some attraction to. Personally I think talking up his chances is a pretty good approach: if he’s encouraged to think of himself in those sorts of terms maybe he’ll actually do something ‘game changing’.
Your response seemed to suggest that it was silly to say that Deakin didn’t have a majority, although on another reading I guess it could be that you think the drawing of any such comparison is silly. Maybe it was just the use of the word ‘silly’ that got to me.
There I was thinking that Gary Bruce and others who respond to you in any way simply perpetuate your nonsense, and then I simply fall into the same trap myself…
Diogenes,
Someone’s been in a coma for the past three years! Go easy on them!
Well Joe supposedly had a shit eating grin the other day… all he’d need to do is give him a big sloppy kiss and pass some of it on
I don’t hope with things I can’t control. I’m simply trying to be pragmatic.
So Speers wRONg again?
It seems to be clear that even if Hockey squibs the challenge, Abbott would beat Turnbull in the ballot. Turnbull really burned his bridges with his inflammatory language on the weekend.
Ru
He hates bread.
I agree psephos – Turnbull is as finished as anybody can be in politics.
I keep reading references to Turnbull spitting the dummy on the weekend – I was otherwise engaged and missed the interview, is there a link anywhere?
Is Turnbull acting out of pure spite now, or is he actually trying to achieve something? He doesn’t seem to be acting like he’s trying to win votes in the Liberal partyroom.
Turnbull is engaging in a scorched earth policy, burning all the furniture as he leaves.
Great article…
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/malcolm-and-the-mincer-20091129-jyrg.html
I think http://today.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=977386 is the dummy spit most people are talking about. He certainly seems to be burning bridges.
“It seems to be clear that even if Hockey squibs the challenge, Abbott would beat Turnbull in the ballot.
Wonderful for Labor.
Turnbull should join the ALP if he loses the ballot what better way to snub the Libs.
Or just quit because we’d lose Wentworth lol oh dear
578
You call that a great article yet you profess to be Green or of the Left. You should read the article again and then seriously ask yourself if you know what you stand for.
Rewi Lyall,
If you get into a debate with “you know who”, expect to see the subject matter shift around so much that by the end of it you are so confused, you can’t even remember what your initial statement was!
This is how he “thinks” he wins!
He wins really by someone just responding to one of his “baits” that are continually thrown out into the PB waters!
How is that a dummy spit compared to what the loonies have done over the last week???
I think Turnbull should resign his seat, then fight the by-election as a Progressive Liberal. He’d win in a canter.
scorpio, thanks. Now let us never speak of it again.
Surely only if Labor didn’t run a candidate, or ran dead? I would have thought that there are plenty of true conservatives in that seat who’d continue to support the Liberal, splitting his vote and potentially making it more likely for Labor to win, should he give preferences that way.
At least the Clinton’s just stole the furniture when they left the White House.
Turnbull knows he’s gone. He’s trashing the party as he leaves and I think it’s for the right reasons. Some will call it a dummy spit but I think it’s a case of exposing members of the party leadership for what they are and to damage them electorally so that an ETS is the biggest show in town.
I think this is Turnbull’s finest hour.
Grahame Morris was looking very smug on Shynews. Methinks the puppet master in all of this is Morris. He was the one that said last Monday that someone will get up and make a speech that will change the lot. That was Robb.
Morris has also been very involved today.
Ok, I’m watching the senate on A-Pac now
Riveting viewing…cough, cough
Does anyone when something might happen? (guillotine, vote on ETS, adjournment, alien abductions anyhting?)
Or do I have a fair wait on my hands?
Turnbull seems to be enjoying the latest biffo. The fight is what he loves.
When he loses he will pick another fight.
Lets hope Abbott wins the Liberal leadership, Glen. It’s lovely that your party chose him as a clear indication what it stands for Australians.
Morris is probably doing Howard’s bidding.
Be nice to Glen ania, the true liberals dont deserve it!
With his money and the revenge factor, i expect him to start a new Party.
It’s interesting that every Liberal today frantically pulling back and trying to protect Hockey’s brand, which is farq at the moment.
What would be the point of that? He wouldn’t be able to become P.M.
Well, unless the Liberals make Abbott leader, then realise how big a disaster that is, and then draft Turnbull back into the leadership.
He always looks that way
Currently 40 degC in my computer room with the window open and a fan going!
36 degC in the kitchen! And Boswell thinks there is no global warming!
Switch off the aircon in the Senate chamber! See what they think about CC then!
Glen @ 581:
This suggestion has some merit. It’s been widely reported that Turnbull has made overtures to the ALP before. And it would be a glorious way for Turnbull to avenge his party’s humiliation of him.
Looking at it from the other side of the equation, it would be a PR coup for Labor. Rudd has brought other Liberals into the government fold; albeit not in this manner.
Why is our Penn so tolerant and nice to those donkeys?
Sure he will Mr Johnson
590 The Finnigans – I had to laugh when Morris started using the Galaxy Poll as proof that support for the ETS was waning. Morris himself called it a strange poll and he was reminded by Speers and Hawker that the poll was only 400 while both Newspoll and Neilsen were much larger and gave a far different result. Poor old Graham had nowhere to hide.
590 The Finnigans – I had to laugh when Morris started using the Galaxy Poll as proof that support for the ETS was waning. Morris himself called it a strange poll and he was reminded by Speers and Hawker that the poll was only 400 while both Newspoll and Neilsen were much larger and gave a far different result. Poor old Graham had nowhere to hide.
Not sure how that double up occurred.
I hope Turnbull stays in parliament so he can cross the floor and vote for the amended CPRS bill when it finally returns to the House.
I was a point that deserved repeating Gary
Turnbull’s main priority will be to destroy Nick Minchin’s political career.
Minchin’s power will be enhanced when Turnbull is defeated.
The new precedent in the Liberal party will be that the leader can be cut down by the nutcase faction even when he has support for his policy.
Is Mesma still on the casting couch gasping for air?
Turnbull is a hater – he will persue Minchin forever.
He’ll hopefully get a crack at Robb as well. What a scumbag.
Add Abbott, shake and stir.
ah yes, Robb of course. he was the front man.
With my partisan ALP hat on, I think the worst possible outcome for us would be the defeat of the dinosaurs and the retention of Turnbull as leader, with Hockey deputy.
The dream result for the ALP is anybody but Turnbull as leader. Why are the stupid feckers worried about their ‘base’? Where are the ‘base’ going? Are the ‘base’ going to change their vote?
With my objective judgement hat on, I think the best possible outcome for the future of our polity and the sensible conduct of government in Australia is for the libs to retain Turnbull as leader, with Hockey as deputy.
On balance, the ALP can deal with Turnbull, electorally, for another term or two, so my desired outcome is for what’s best for the nation – a Malcopop Sloppy ticket, stable for the next seven to ten years, in opposition.
Haven’t had a chance to read all the comments but someone asked about the punters out in voterlands’ philisophical support for the ETS but questioning their support for the policy if it meant $$ being extracted from their hip pocket….What everyone is focusing on (no more than the shockjocks) is the economic cost of the ETS to the average Joe – the extra electricity costs, petrol prices etc, but no one has mentioned the trade-off which is the moral benefit..That is people may be more inclined to part with their hard earned if there is a percieved moral benefit…saving the planet, doing their little bit for global warming, seeing Australia taking positive action after the years when it was us the USA and Kazakstan refusing to sign Kyoto…This is similar to the anecdote I recall (Dubner/Levitt) wherby a blood bank wishing to try and increase their donor rate, brought in a scheme where donors where paid cash by volume of blood donated…What happened, the actual donor rate decreased and the scheme had to be dropped pronto…It all boiled down to people didn’t donate blood for economic gain they usually did it for altruistic and moral purposes, to feel good about themselves…Once there was a $$ attached to their act of donating it cheapened the whole deal and people stopped donating…Whilst the shock jocks are getting all shrill about the economic costs, I reckon alot of people out in voteland would be happy to feel the warm fuzzies about doing something positive and proactive even if it costs them a $1000 a year.
Yes I will never understand exactly where the Liberals think the CC skeptic vote is going that it won’t just come straight back to them via preferences. I think Abbott and Minchin don’t understand the electoral system
Whatever money T was prepared to use in an election campaign to support the Liberal party might now be used for a good cause i.e. a campaign against CC deniers in the Liberal party. He could take out full page ads and rent some billboard space in Liberal marginal seats and still have change left over.
My respect to Turnbull has a cut off line – I don’t want him in Labor, thanks.
He made a choice what party to join in. That’s on his head and personal responsibility.
I’m very optimistic of Labor delivering the first female PM in Australia – her name is Gillard. I don’t want Turnbull to be another white, Anglo-Saxon guy to set someone with her capabilities, but wrong gender, back to the oblivion.
Probably? Mate, you haven’t got a clue
Wasn’t Michael Johnson about to be sacked for misuse of his electorate vehicle?
ania, There’s no chance of T receiving endorsement as a Labor candidate. Rudd will never forgive him for Utegate and he can’t be trusted to be a team player. He’d want the leadership and he’d trash the place until he got it or got the flick. Better to not open the door in the first place.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/mp-michael-johnson-at-centre-of-federal-car-probe/story-e6frf7l6-1225805174947
Sorry it was his Whip’s car.
Phillip Coorey has bad news for Sloppy. Joe, what were you thinking:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/rivals-poised-to-give-hockey-stick-20091129-jyri.html
Hi Dubbs. Sorry, but I just don’t think most people behave that way. The business I work in supplies solvent-based and water-base products to auto industry customers. The water-based product is just as effective, is far better for the environment, and is priced about 10% higher than the solvent-based product. However, the water-based product is only about 5% of revenue. Some people will pay a premium, and probably only a small premium, for greener electricity, but I don’t think it’s a big proportion. Not if the premium is $1,000! For most Australians, that’s a lot of money.
Just in case no one has posted Annabel’s update about an hour ago on ABC website:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/30/2757465.htm
Essential 58 42
What a fruit cake!
I hope not Steve K.
Much I respect Malcom’s personal standing in the Liberal party, I don’t want him in Labor.
626
Sounds like a solvent tax is needed. 10% would make it even but a bit more should be added to sway the purchasers with inertia away from the less environmental product.
From Britney:
According to 10 News Adelaide:
Now Nick Minchin is saying the CPRS should not be passed until AFTER the U.S. scheme passes the congress and is signed by Obama.
The Greens and Senator Fielding said he will vote AGAINST a motion to refer the amended CPRS to a Senate Committee!
Adelaide has had its hottest November on record (122 years)
He said the same thing on Lateline Business last Tuesday:
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/business/items/200911/s2752515.htm
What a shock… and then after that it will be only when the planet Zargon has agreed to fight climate change. They should rename themselves the Procrastinator Party.
But SO, that’s just weather. Ask Minchin!
I don’t know how Senator Wong does it.
She has been putting up with the most unnecessary questions from the Greens, the Liberals and the Nats.
I have listened on and off to the goings on in the Senate and I don’t know how many times I have heard Senator Wong say something like –
1) Senator X is referred to page Y of publication C
or
2) I refer the Senator to my earlier answer to him/her or Senator P
or something along those lines.
We heard that the Government had infinite patience with those asylum seekers on the Ocean Viking but it would appear that Senator Wong dose have infinite patience in view of her forbearance in putting up with these sort of time wasting and unnecessary questions.
Just a question on procedure. If Greens and Fielding vote against referring the CPRS to a committee then that motion lapses for lack of a majority. That means they’d have to vote on the CPRS?
Tom TF&B, we would love to see such a tax on solvents, or legislation to just ban the use of solvent-based products where appropriate water-based products exist. In W. Europe, solvent-based paints have been banned for a few years now, but elsewhere in the world, there are no such laws, or the laws are full of loopholes to ensure local vested interests aren’t disturbed.
LOL! Hockey can’t decide on a position on the ETS… I wonder why? Maybe because it is the bloody policy that has torn the party apart?
It may not actually matter. It is quite possible that the Greens, Fielding, Xenophon and Labor will force the coalition to vote the leglsiation down tomorrow.
In my opinion, that would be much better for Hockey than being tortured by the government until February.
BTW ….has Hockey challenged Turnbull publicly?
I’m pretty sure you are right.
10 News had a quick grab of Senator Troeth saying that she still thinks the Liberals should stick to the deal they agreed to, and she said she knows other Liberal senators that feel the same.
No.
No. His line is he isn’t challenging but might propose himself if the position is vacant (after a motion in the party room to that effect is agreed to).
Just been listening to John Hewson on ABC radio!
He’s advising Hockey not to run for the leadership!
But Sloppy obviously won’t listen, and I presume right now he’s putting the finishing touches to the grubby deal with Minchin!
The Liberals are giving Fielding ‘The Treatment’.
http://twitter.com/Latikambourke
So tomorrow will Joe come out and say a vote on the ETS should be delayed until 2050? Watch very carefully to see Minchin pulling the strings!
This is getting pathetic! Hockey really has gone over to the dark side! The Government can justifiably now call him a climate change denier!
Feilding lobs a hand grenade into Minchin’s cunning plan.
Yes but this is the man who wants a Royal Commission to be conducted by Ross Garnaut and Whatisface Plimer to be conducted before the CPRS can be further considered.
Minchin presumably will start threatening wavering Liberals with a loss of their preselection, although Judith Troeth is soon to retire(so she’s free from his threats).
Sky News are having a big update on all spill related matters in 5 minutes you can watch it here: http://www.bigpondtv.com/newstv
Who’s crazier? Fielding or Minchin?
Those conservatives are a loony lot!
Good. Time is is runnning out for Hockey in the Abbott v Turnbull in the Liberal spill.
Looks like he’s standing firm to his own agenda.
Socrates (133 at 11.33 am),
The army, the navy, the air force, the police and all sorts of other bodies have chaplains, so I do not see why schools should not. I agree that John Howard saw some political advantage in providing funding above and beyond the earlier sources, but I do not see it as an issue and I am not troubled by Kevin Rudd’s continuing the funding.
I have just scanned over 500 posts, mostly of the repetitive Greens v ALP type which now characterise this site, so if I missed anyone who replied directly to me earlier, I apologise, ,but I ram not going to read every word particularly when it is the same word day-in day-out.
Perhaps these organisations shouldn’t have chaplains either.
OMG Latest from Channel 9 News:
Minchin will let the ETS bill pass if Hockey becomes leader?
It’s all about getting rid of Turnball!
655
The Government should not fund religion as it is superstition. Schools and government bodies should have secular councillors not chaplains.
Oh dear Datsun?
Hockey is already having trouble with the Uglies of Minchin & Abbott according SLynews.
http://twitter.com/Latikambourke
LOL! SO WHY DIDN”T THEY JUST PASS THE DAMN THING LAST THURSDAY!?
But I guess Minchin gets rid of Turnbull so that’s all that really matters in the end.
No it’s not a leadership issue…..
Much!
The perfect result.
ShowsOn: if that happens, the talkback shock jocks will have apoplexy! They’ve been spending all day prematurely celebrating their “defeat” of “Rudd’s Tax”.
What will Barnaby do? He’ll turn on Minchin LOL
No surprise here, otherwise Hockey will be deadmeat before he has even started.
ltep
A Fielding needs to do now is assist with an CC DD election trigger.
That’s what I thought it was really about all along, Minchin hates Turnball, always has!
If so, the chance of Turnbull starting a new Progressive Liberal for revenge has increased 10 folds.
Pass the Popcorns
Dont tell me the Hockey Solution is crumbling before our eyes.
Hockey is deadmeat regardless!
Get this off the agenda, and I’ll wait breathlessly for the new economic policy from Sloppy and People Skills!
So the CPRS goes through. How then does Hockey placate his puppet masters?
Say that he doesn’t believe in climate change but just had it passed as a gag?
Any chance Albo has been in Turnball’s office lately?
A Liberal opposition will always provide the most excitement.
What a bunch of tragics!
LOL
Well if the front bench sceptics cannot get their way they still need to change leaders so they can get their positions back.
Minchin is probably only exchanging the CPRS to get rid of Turnbull because he knows Liberals are going to cross the floor and pass it.
Did i hear right that fruitcake Fieldings wants a Royal Commission on CRPS?
It’s time the good men and women of the Liberal Party in the Senate stand up and be counted.
No, Finns, how silly do you think he is?
He wants one into the science of climate change, with Plimer and Garnaut as the chairs.
Yep he wants a judicial enquiry without judges.
Yes. To be chaired by Ross Garnaut and Ian Plimer. It’s to also look into the science of climate change.
Yes! Chaired by Ross Garnaut and… Ian Plimer!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
So the disaster of the past week has all been for nothing, because they were going to pass the ETS anyway, it was just all about getting rid of Turnball!
Oh lord!
If the CPRS is passed Penn needs to wear a PVC raincoat to protect her clothes (such a smart dresser) from pieces of Barnaby’s exploding head.
I doubt it is true that the Libs will pass the bill, but if it is……
maybe the Moderates are tired of being pushed around by the nutters and this is their pound of flesh. Maybe the Mods, including Hockey (who knows they need him) are saying you can have Turnbull’s head but we get the legislation through.
Basically the Mods are saying, “nutters, youse can all go and F#$@% yourselves!”
Just maybe…….
Bronny on PM has just said there will be no blood on Sloppy’s hands only on his face as someone else stabbed Turnbull.
A question?
How many of you give personal preferences to the Senate….even when it means taking the time doing so to 213 choices?
FINALLY! A division. Let’s see where the Liberals go. These are Green amendments so theoretically only the Greens and maybe Xenophon will support them.
School is for education and learning how to think rationaly. Nothing could be worse than filling kids heads with superstitious nonsence using taxpayer dollars. The other issue is that school is supposed to be “free, secular and compolsary”. But when the government pays for religion in schools this undermines secularism. The schoolboard must choose which religion – all other religions are unrepresented. Why should they get an Anglican just because that’s what the principle is, when there are loads of Catholics and Athiests too? If the Church wants to infiltrate places of learning (to attack Darwinism, abortion choices etc) then they can do it out of their own pocket.
I do.
So do I. It never fails to amaze me how many don’t.
PM just reported that free votes in the Senate for the Liberals.
Fielding has said he will not vote to send the bill off to committee until next year. So have the greens.
So it currently looks as if the vote will be to defeat the bill and provide a DD trigger.
Is this why minchin is now indicating they may support CPRS as long as hockey replaces turnbull ?
Or is minchin looking to back stab sloppy as soon as he is elected ??
There we go. It’s through then.
If so, it’s all about Turnbull!!!!!! Progessive Liberal is on.
I thought that might happen as Joe had no reason to stand if it remained an issue, it still wouldn’t help the party. But passing it leaves Joe without being sabotaged by the right as Turnbull would be. Thus the moderates had a bargaining chip.
It could be an admission by Minchin that he can’t control the way all the Liberals are going to vote, i.e. he can’t stop the bill from passing.
Hockey confirmed to contest if spill motion passed
Hockey Solution has crumbled if ABC PM is correct.
If that’s the case it make the Liberals an even bigger shower of shite than I had imagined. How will they explain this one?
One has to wonder what kind of integrity any of these Libs have???? There were more brains in the Eddleston bridal party than all the Libs combined…. and at least his Mrs was ok to look at
The phat weasel on ch9 just confirmed Hockster will run if there is a spill motion…. all these contradictory reports show how divided the whole party is… they cant even align their leaks, what chance do they have with policy
And Radio Liberal will mount the mother of all scare campaigns against ……. The LIEberal Party
So let me get this correct.
Everything is the same as it was last Tuesday except Hockey is now leader?
Hockey might as well backstab Minchin now if the ETS is passed…
So Turnbull’s big mistake was not letting the back bench have a conscience vote.
Is this how Hockey is going to deal with all tough issues? Not bother figuring out a unifying policy, but just give everyone a conscience vote?
Sure is Hockey leader? Can someone provide a link please?
what a coup for Our ABC!!!!
So when the CPRS goes back to the House, will Hockey vote for it?
Or will he vote against it to placate the puppet masters?
If they let through the ETS and dump Turnbull for Hockey, it would have to go down as the most pointless self-destructive in-fighting ever.
On the weekend, those d!ckheads were saying it was all about the policy and not the leadership. Now they look like saying the policy didn’t matter and it was all about getting rid of Turnbull.
How much lower than those idiots go?
So now we have Hockey stabbing Minchin on the back while Minchin was stabbing Turnbull on his back while Turnbull was hacking Minchin on the front.
Great, one happy family.
I can’t understand how Hockey could take the job unless they agreed to pass the ETS as there would be absolutely not benefit for anybody out of it. Hockey with a blocked ETS is a worse position for the Liberals. Joe may as well let Turnbull stay and fight it out with the right.
Herr Diog, wRONg again
I seem to remember someone here suggesting the Libs have a conscience vote yesterday.
Perhaps I should go back and see who it was…
to Finns
It has also been about control of the party. The rights last stand.
This calls for a song
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzjziKqVp6k
I love how they have all of Samantha Maiden’s tweets down the right hand side. What would Mr Murdoch have to say about that?
Umm, I’m a bit lost. Does the ETS vote go first or spill?
Who needs to carry out their side of the deal first?
ShowsOn said they should allow a conscience vote I believe, a number of times.
I suggested it last Tuesday when it was 6 PM and they still hadn’t come up with a party policy.
Turnbull should’ve said, OK, everyone gets a conscience vote. Because that would’ve diffused animosity with his position while enabling it to pass the Senate.
He would probably still have a chance of staying leader.
If Minchin gets shadow finance we know what is was really all about.
What if they pass the CPRS and the spill motion doesn’t get up?
Again, where is the link to Hockey publicly challenging Turbull?
All I get from ABC breaking news is same old …..”Liberal senators to be given a conscience vote on ETS legislation if Hockey becomes leader”
“IF” being the issue.
GG
Nice lyrics you came up with at 535
Will 7 or more Liberal senators vote for the amended ETS bill? That’s the question!
Well I suggested it over a week ago.
From Britney:
And as you have suggested, isn’t Turnbull stronger now that he has taken on his party and won?
Even if it is passed many Liberals will vote against it, which means the Government will say that Hockey still doesn’t have a climate police that all the Liberals agree on.
Damn
ania
Nothing is certain yet. No-one has actually said anything for three days except Turnbull, and he’s getting repetitive.
ShowsOn, You said this was Ts best strategy days ago. Top call mate.
A Beatles’ fan AND an astute political pundit – good combo.
there is a abc spills page?
Anyone what that last vote in the senate was all about and the result ??
What will be truly hilarious tomorrow? Listening to Alan Jones and the other shock jocks on “Radio Liberal”, the very same crowd who were congratulating themselves today for killing off the ETS!
Yep
http://www.abc.net.au/news/events/liberal-turmoil/
And Hockey keeps saying nothing, Diogenes.
It’s only a deal. It can still be reneged upon. All Minchin’s got to say is that the deal, as he understood it, wsn’t the deal as Hockey understood it.
These idiots have already lynched two leaders. Now they have put in a puppet who won’t last five minutes before they’re pulling his strings. They have welched on deals (why not again?). They have destroyed their party while having the cheek to accuse Turnbull of doing it. Puppet as he is, Joe is about the last presentable candidate of the left of the party. He is the last shot in the locker. Thus, when he loses at the next election, one of the Uglies gets the guernsey by default.
Bewdaful!
Inquiry is code that Australia passes an ETS once their is a global agreement in the Alpha Centuri solar system.
The last division was on Green amendments designed to remove ALL free permits. They were voted down with only the 5 Greens supporting them:
http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/dynamicred/
Will he offer Feilding a RC?
There’s something slightly distasteful about Hockey having to make some sort of deal to get Minchin and his loony right wing army on board!
Shows On,
If the trogs have agreed to a conscience vote (and it hard to imagine how it was ever going to be avoided when so many of them had already resigned and said they were voting against the CPRS), then the putsch on Turnbull might fail also.
Minchins power was that they would either not vote or push the legislation off to a committe. Fielding has effectively skewered those options. Minchin and co will now be striving to save face and that is now the ludicrous position of deposing their Leader.
More popcorn required. Joe might tell em to shove it yet.
Hardly. The stars are fixed to the firmament. All this talk of “solar systems” is just so much lefty-sciencey tosh!
If Hockey agrees to run against Turnbull and the ETS hasn’t been passed, then he is as big a fool as I think he is!
Minchin will just kill it tomorrow “after” Hockey is in! He will then be toast!;-)
If Fielding, X, the Greens and Labor all want a vote, isn’t there going to be a vote?
Why don’t they pull their fingers out and force a vote tonight?
Labor should start playing hard-ball. When your opposition is down, that’s the time to sink the boot in and score a few extra runs.
There is branch of the Minchin family on Alpha Centuri so good luck
Any chance we might get the Mad Monk as Liberal Leader tomorrow after all?
That’d guarantee Labor at least 110 seats in 2010!
The right will spend the next 12 months trying to destroy Turnbull. This is why Joe is the sacrifice ets or no.
Well they would like to get rid of Turnbull first I imagine.
That’s a form of cricket I’m unfamiliar with.
I just watched Bolt on Insiders (with the finger hovering over the pause button). He seems to hate Hockey as much as Turnbull. He said Hockey had no interest in CC science (well Bolt’s anit-science version) and lacked the intellect and strategic thinking to be Lib leader.
Loved this one!
I like it that ABC Online has included an article about accusations of rorting against WA Treasurer Troy Buswell under its banner ‘Liberal Turmoil’.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/30/2757585.htm
This fight is incredible. Minchin and his cohorts are fighting for the Liberal vote. Turnball and the moderates are fighting for the Australian vote. The former can never win the war only the battle. They are pepared to sacrifice their Party for their ideology.
scorpio,
Maybe Penny Wong could don an invisible suit and provide some advice.
Personal opinion only. The Liberal spill is tomorrow – anyone wanting the leadership, including Hockey, would have made it public by now.
It’s basic confrontation time with Abbott v Turnbull tomorrow….something the right wing, including Abbott, detests.
For Australia, I hope Turnbull wins to do what opposition parties are supposed to – keep the bastards in goverment in check.
As a Labor/Green supporter, I need serious policy facts before I wouldn’t even consider Liberals to “possible” electoral contenders.
So Minchin now has the sole decision making role for the Libs?
Diogenes,
The trouble the Rebels have got is that there is three sub-factions with in their ranks!
The trouble the soft and hard-line Lib supporters in the media has is that they are also split along those lines!
All in all, it makes for riveting and amusing sport!
stop the world, i want to get off. these Liberal donkeys really dont know what they are doing. and my apology to the real donkeys.
So there’s still the prospect of a Climate Change Double Dissolution Early Election?
The CCDDEE?
GG
malcolm will only go if carried out in a box. He is the CEO and MD and most importantly paymaster,get ready for minchin to join robb in the depression stakes
The ETS is now a sideshow,tho expect it to pass real soon.
Get your money on corn. Will be an interesting 12 months if Turnbull goes (or not)
http://www.dailyfutures.com/grains/
when you have asses reporting it, expect a high level of confusion between the mules
Nick Minchin has just released this statement:
Speculation tonight by Laurie Oakes on Channel 9 news that I support the proposition that Labor’s CPRS Bill pass through the Senate upon a change of leadership are inaccurate. I continue to support the proposition that the Bill should be referred to a Senate Inquiry, to report back after the Copenhagen conference.
The new comedy play is called:
The Kama Sutra of the Liberal Party
Subtitle: The many positions on how the Liberals farq themselves.
Minchin wants both Turnbull out and the ETS killed off!
Hockey is putting a spanner in the works by wanting the ETS through as a condition for running against Turnbull!
If Minchin wins here, he will be the undoubted, singly most powerful person not only in the Liberal Party, but on the right of politics itself!
And they accused Turnbull of being a megalomaniac! lol
But what about the others Nick?
Turnbull will get HUGE sympathy votes
Oh dear! Wrong again!
starring the big swinging dicks
Hockey would have to be a first class fool to go along with this.
The trouble the right have now is that they have made Turnbull more popular so if they fail they are farq
I don’t believe this stuff about a conscience vote. The whole point of this exercise in public cannibalism is to stop the CPRS. It would pass the Senate on a conscience vote. So then they would have rooted themselves to no purpose at all.
And the “Budgie smuggler”!
Tony Abbott to contest leadership no matter who runs: ABC Online
Psephos,
The trogs are scrambling. Fielding has pierced their balloon and they are about to start whizzing around the room.
Abbott has just stabbed Hockey
Scorps
The cast is still being auditioned, I expect tony was going for the role of understudy
We already know that he is! It is just how much of a fool he really is?
Hour by hour the bar just gets set lower and lower!
Serious question, could an ousted Turnbull just leave and join the another party…like the Democrats and take a dozen or so defectors with him? Or is this not allowed?
I’m thinking Mrs Pritchard and the purple aliance.
The right are heading to…history. Turnbull could still survive with increased popularity.
Joe might run as Turnbull’s deputy.
malcolm calculated that,now the cats are going to scratch each other, rather than Mal
and then after tomorrow
REVENGE
The lib trogs dont realise what they have set off.
Oh dear, now is:
Abbott stabs Hockey in the back while Hockey stabs Minchin in the back while Minchin stabs Turnbull in the back while Turnbull is stabbing himself in the back while the Back is having one hell of good time.
Could the reporting of this by the MSM get any crappier?
Diogs,
They own the news. They have insights and understand the nuances of the political process far beeter than mere bloggers.
I just hope they have enough tissues to clean up afterwards, these guys.
I told ya so.. I told ya so!
Like sands through the hourglass, so are the days of the Liberals lives
They are beyond the most rabbleous of rabbles
Please, pretty please, elect Abbott. My wet dream comes true.
The conscience vote thing has jjust made things bloody interesting
Now it seems Abbott will run against Hockey, and Turnbull….
I have a feeling that Turnbull and Hockey will take votes from each other, which will mean Abbott could win
If Abbott does win, and the ETS stays blocked, Rudd should fly to Yarralumla for a DD so fast his head will spin…..
After he gets back meeing Obama of course….
Crikey!
http://twitter.com/Latikambourke
Still not a peep out of Julie? Her and Joe, a perfect match
Minchin chucked a tizzy at the idea of a conscience vote.. now Abbott is going to stand
.. what morons!
Finns,
Dolphins are always wet.
Are these guys serious?
What are the odds Turnbull will tell them all to go flip it and form his own party?
Hockey’s not as dumb as Minchin and Abbott thought.
He’s given them the reverse wedgie!
Why would Hockey stand against Turnbull if Abbott runs, I though he was only doing it at the behest of the right? He is likely to deliver the leadership to Abbott.
Finnigans, my wettest of wet dreams involve a conscience vote, the ETS getting passed, Hockey becoming leader for one hour and then Minchin frothing at the mouth and installing Abbott, who then self immolates..
So the Liberals had all year to come up with an ETS policy. They have been given an extension, and are now going to stay up all night working on it.
They aren’t a political party, they are a bunch of first year uni students.
How would a three-way leadership vote work?
Would it be on most votes or would the 3rd person drop out and then revote?
Listen fellow PBs, one hour is long time in politics
It’s a lame one if it is. It was clear he was just a puppet the moment he drove 3 times around Johnny’s house.
I thought Liberal Senators were free to vote anyway they liked.
Looks like Howard told Hockey and Abbott the same thing!
“The opportunities for running for leadership are rare and should be grabbed with both hands when it is on offer”!
We have known Abbott has long coveted the leadership and Hockey said as much recently also!
Game on! What fun!
That’s fine with me. They need a denier in the leadership if they want to be the denialist party.
At least Abbott will be able to believe his own nonsense.
I’m pretty sure it doesn’t work this way.
Doesn’t this completely contradict what they say about the ALP not allowing free votes?
Mother Milne speaking in the Senate.
5 minutes is a long time in politics it seems.
I’m sorry for keep banging on the same point….
Has Hockey publicly contested the Liberal leadership like Abbott’s did?
If he hasn’t, let’s leave him out of the equation.
It’s Abbott v Turnbull as it stands now.
Maybe Joe is a double agent for Turnbull.
Abbott:
Why would Hockey run at all if that’s his policy? He might as well support Turnbull, pass the CPRS, let Turnbull lose the election, then fight Abbott for the leadership after the election. This makes no sense at all.
How do the Libs conduct a ballot with multiple candidates. If it is eliminate the least voted candidate and vote again, then could provide opportunities for tactical voting. It would just add another level of confusion and intrigue.
Why not!
Dario
I disagree. Hockey is no puppet of Minchin. In fact he has just shown himself to be the most competent political operator in the current liberal party. Not much of an accolade to be sure, but he has Minchin snookered and that’s more than Malcolm could manage.
Either the right let the ETS pass and Hockey becomes the leader of a party without that albatross around its neck or the right have to put their asses where there mouth is (in ways other then they are currently endeavoring) and vote in a leader that they all know is electoral poison.
Minchin tried to play him and instead is getting played. Go Sloppy!
He probably won’t anymore. Hopefully Turnbull sacks him if he retains the leadership.
This has gone beyond the joke.
I think now Rudd has a duty to get rid of these donkeys by declaring a DD
Yes Ania Abbott vs Turnbull. Turnbull to lose park himself as a democrat and take 20 or more with him. The democrats to be a serious political force again.
And to think Abbott was running around this morning saying if Joe stood against Turnbull he (abbott) wouldn’t stand.
Voice of reason: Macca on 7:30 Report
Ian Macfarlane on 730…very sensible…”no idea what is happening” no wonder he and Penny seem to get on well
As a few people have said, go away for a few hours, and the circus just gets more bizarre
I think this has always been the reality of going for Joe, the only candidate that would beat Turnbull.
The right will have to come to grips with that tonight or face defeat and irrelevance with added support they have created for Turnbull. The right have to win now, more than ever.
Macca said 9-12 senators will vote yes
G.G. said a couple of pages ago that Fielding’s decision a few hours ago to oppose delaying the bills has really thrown a big spanner into the works.
I am pretty sure that is exactly how it works.
Greg Jennet on ABC News Adelaide says “sources” tell him that Abbott would most likely finish 3rd in a race between Abbott, Turnbull, Hockey.
So that would leave the two “pass the amended CPRS” candidates! That really gives Minchin and Cory Bernardi a great choice doesn’t it!
If Turnbull wins he will make Joe the deputy. Good night julie…..you were a never been
Howie told him to?
He thought he’d unite the party but soon found out otherwise? That is that it’s the whackaloons way or no way
That was Abbott’s big (oh well not so big) push for the female and gay vote!
He must think it has worked! Front page of the OZ! Must be a help!
And that’s more than enough for the Government to say that the CPRS has the bipartisan support of mainstream politicians.
Will Minchin let him do this?
ania,
you are rIGHt that the fact joe NEVER announced he was running is important.
His role was to run as defence for Abbott.The minchin ruined everything by blabbing to his pet journos?.
mal is ready to start hanging bodies over the castle walls
HE stared them down and now it is time for revenge
ps JB probably saved mal by saving her utterances to only private ones
Vote for spill: surely this will get up? Enough Libs who want shot of Turnbull to support this
3-way vote for leader: you’d have to think a bunch of Turnbull votes will go to Hockey (would be surprised if Turnbull could keep more than 10-20)… Question is how many denier Abbot votes against Turnbull will go to Hockey for self-preservation reasons (if they want to stop the ETS then they have to)?
What are the rules – leader on a 3-way count wins, or bottom dweller drops out and a re-vote between the top two?
Can the Senate vote be conducted BEFORE any of this happens?
What a mess. Biggest political theatre since Winston Peters had to choose which party to support in NZ all those yrs ago.
how does a 3 way vote actually work in the LP?
First of all, there would have to be a successful spill motion.
There doesn’t appear to be any reason to think that a spill motion tomorrow is any more likely to succeed than the last time it was tried. The only reason might be if Hockey was to say he wanted to bring it on, and give whatever supporters he has free rein to vote for the spill.
If that were to happen, and a three-way tussle eventuate, then surely there would be a run-off between the two candidates who secured the greatest number of votes?
There’s still time for the Tuckey / Jensen comedy ticket.
As G.G. said. The candidate with the lowest number of votes is excluded. Then everyone votes again for the 2 remaining candidates.
I have no idea what they do if 2 candidates get the same amount of votes in the first round. Perhaps a vote between just those 2 candidates to determine who goes into the 2nd round.
ShowsOn
There are some things which ought not even be joked about
There is a problem if Turnbull wins. How feral will the right become for the next 12 months, given their safe seats.
We, we said in kindness, better take what’s happening in a realistic approach. The MSM can report what they like…..so far though, Hockey hasn’t said boo in this debacle except for, effectively, supporting Turnbull. He hasn’t challenged him.
What happens in between the Abbott v Turnbull confrontation tomorrow will depend on n#. I have the feeling Turnbull got them.
Rewi,
Couple of things.
There is likely to be more than 3 candidates intially. Could include Andrews and Bishop.
Re the spill. Could be right. Depends whether Turnbull wants it brought on for legitimacy purposes.
Psephos – put Abbott’s words in cotton wool ready for the election. That bloke changes his story as quickly as he changes his daks.
I can’t think of one rational reason why Hockey would participate in a 3-way…(sorry, pls pardon imagery associated with that choice of words)
If memory serves there was a 3-way to replace Greiner and it was a simple who had the most votes wins… not sure if that’s the same rule at Federal level though
Hockster should back Turnbull and prime himself for 2011, however it goes, surely?
They will work to undermine him every day until the election to help him lose, which they will blame him for. Then they will use that as evidence that the party must be lead by a conservative, which they will use to say Hockey shouldn’t run.
You got to give it to the ABC they are pretty quick adding Abbott to their spill page:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/events/liberal-turmoil/images/abbott_hockey_turnbull.jpg
But if there is a 3-way and a first round elimination (as people suggest here), surely the first round loser has to be Turnbull?
OK here’s what I think is happening:
– Hockey to vote no to a leadership spill in a pathetic attempt to look loyal to his a leader, a ‘Cleaver Costello’ if you will
– Leadership spill will get up
– Hockey will stand, Turnbull won’t, Abbott will also stand so as to give Minchin et. al. an indication of how many genuine loonies are floating around the Parliamentary Liberal Party
– Hockey will get up and call for a conscious vote
– There will be a conscious vote on deferral of the bill to a committee and on the bill itself (if it gets that far)
So Minchin and Hockey have agreed to disagree on the ETS and this is where the real number crunching is going on: delay (Minchin camp), not delay (Hockey and co.).
There is no way Turnbull will not stand. He will hang onto the leadership for as long as he can.
ABC News:
Keane’s twitter says a 3-way = moderate split = Abbott win. If a single vote winner takes all then yes, but not under elimination rules, surely? (Hockey wins?)
Hockey is demonstrating his sloppiness again and again, eg: dealing with Fieldings
Is that a promise?
What absolute tosh. He sounded out people on twitter, played pathetic espionage with the press and was still tailed to Howard’s house, has been in the thick of it with Minchin, and has looked all over the place. If he wanted to look competent he would have stated publicly long ago that he had no intention of running and supported Turnbull and the ETS. He is a bumbling flake.
Greensborough Growler,
Andrews today said he’ll consult with his colleagues. As he was Abbott’s stalking horse last time round, I would expect him to pull his head in.
As for Bishop, well, where do we begin?
My feeling has always been that they had to allow the ETS to get rid of Turnbull.
I cannot see Hockey running at all if Abbott runs. And even then we are not sure of Hockey’s position.
Scorpio
In my latest role, unpaid adviser to Malcolm, I suggested the other day that he take Joe aside and talk him into running a joint ticket. Joe as deputy.
Sheesh, can’t leave the tv for a minute for fear of missing the latest twist. The Mad Monk is certainly earning his moniker!
Where the Wild Things Are is on show everywhere.
If the Liberals are going to go the wackyloon way, they may as well go for the Abbott / Andrews ticket. Labor would win the female vote 60/40.
Ok, so in a 3 way hockey, abbott, turnbull.. I’d say turnbull loses the first round.. and hockey wins the second round.
Anyone disagree?
Best result is Abbott win, Senate revolt allowing ETS passage.
Rewi
The End. Preferably.
Do not write off Turnbull. Do it at your own peril.
Totally.
If that happened the Liberals would just turn into a collection of independents.
He won’t get this surely.
The Senate will sit from 10-10 each calendar day until the Bill is dealt with.
The liberal party learnt that this arvo.
And Turnbull starts his Progressive Liberal.
Rewi,
My earlier post mentioned strategic voting.
It could be quite feasible for a block to vote for a particular candidate initially to express dissatisfaction with Turnbull’s style or manner. However, their candidate would be eliminated anyway and they would eventually switch to Turnbull as the only viable candidate.
My recollection is that this happened in a leadership ballot when Peter Reith was the recipient of this voting in a Deputy Leadership spill circa 1990.
Why would the leadership ballot be straight up and down when nothing else has in this saga?
“Anyone disagree?”
I do. Give me a link to a Hockey challenge on Turnbull.
I think this is definitely the least likely of my above predictions. But perhaps Turnbull is fed up and either way he realises there is no point leading the rabble. This way he at least wants to ensure someone of a similar ilk leads the party.
He will then leave and form the People’s Progressive Liberal Republican Australia Party or PPLRAP or ‘People Rap’.
Wonder if Chainsaw has been keeping Penny up to date with the numbers in the Senate for passing the ETS?
Kev has been looking pretty relaxed, like he’s sure the bill will pass
apparently, need a majority in the first round otherwise it goes to second round with bottom dweller eliminated. If 5 people run, I have no idea (maybe a 3rd & 4th round)!
Why would Andrews run against Abbott – only splits the wingnut vote (if you count 2-3 votes as a split, and that’s being generous to Andrews)
Malcolm will definitely run
Does anyone know how if any meaningful Senate vote of any kind can happen BEFORE all this comes to a head?
crikey whitey,
Best fun I’ve ever had!
What do you mean WOULD?
more amendments passed
bill to pass by tonite
late
maybe
sort of
It’s highly unlikely. A motion to guillotine debate can occur at any time but I think it’s getting a bit late for that tonight.
gus,
You’ve joined the MSM.
Why does anyone think Joe will run now? Where does it say he will? All I’ve heard is he’ll vote against a spill and my leader
For some strange reason I am craving the musings of Cedric Conan, or even the illustrious Nostradamus.
I am certain they could have provided valuable insight into this situation.
Vera, this is even better than then the 3 Amigos: We ride, we fight, we love
What if Malcolm and Joe have done a deal to be leader and deputy! Malcolm seems awfully upbeat. How does he do it.
And who was the one who used to do those strange couplets? Like
Liberal is an unholy mess.
Labor rules.
Tania
Ice.
I think the ETS bill will get through now.
At the very worst case scenario, the Lib moderates will defy the party room in the Senate and cross the floor – just as Minchin et al are willing to do to them.
I can’t see why they should do anything else.
Btw what are the MPs doing while the Senate procrastinate. Are they still in Canberra bore stiff and bonking each other?
Being semi-retired has its benefits. But a big drawback is working and missing a day of such moment and fun.
G.P. should be temporarily unbanned.
Tabitha, I think.
They are in Fishwick buying porn and fireworks for the parties tomorrow Finns
“If he is elected as leader tomorrow, Abbott will ask for the ETS to be deferred, and if not deferred, rejected. “The party has a clear choice. It can vote for Malcolm and we will support the legislation. It can vote for me and we will reject the legislation. Or they can vote for Joe and we’ll have a conscience vote”.
http://www.thepunch.com.au/
Never fear, every word of this circus is being recorded. You will see all this again come election time.
Finns
3 Amigos?
3 horse race?
One of us might be leader of the Liberal party this time tomorrow
But it’s cooler today, Aristotle. lol
Bring him back to poke with sticks and then resign him to the sin-bin once more?
That is too cruel for words.
I reckon our new ambassador to NATO and the EU must be particularly pleased with his latest career move…
Anyone here from Bradfield/Higgins to share local colour on any impact for Saturday?
He means smoking it BH
See Minchin is right, BH, there’s no warming!
Will you be occupying the casting couch left vacant by Mesma?
yes I feel the libs primary vote will suffer will go to prefernces but easily get in with 53% to 55%, that’s Hiiggins
BK – left home early today when this thread was p.2 – came back tonight and it was 14. It is rolling around like a spinning wheel.
I didn’t think I’d ever see the Libs descend to a lower level than the Peacock/Howard war. Two in a lifetime is magnificent to a non-Lib.
Why Joe would want the job now is beyond me, but he doesn’t need to do anything really… vote no for spill, and if there is one then if he runs he wins – probably without a phone call necessary?
Hockey has to know he’s dead meat if he does a deal with Minchin & co?
If someone could explain how Fielding’s latest manoevure affects Minchin or anything/anyone else, would appreciate it
Centaur, seems nobody is listening.
It’s 8.15 pm in Sydney. By now and considering the going ons in the Liberal party today, Hockey should have made a clear announcement considering the spill tomorrow.
Unless he’s fake 101 even for politics (and he”ll pay dearly) I think he’s letting Abbott, with the neocon aparatus behind him, confront the position and leader he supports, Turnbull.
We’ll know for sure tomorrow. Just a few hours more.:)
Yes, Fielding was an alien child.
Fielding is a loose goose.
How come Macca is answering all Red Kerry’s questions and not bull-shiiting or spinning crap?
Chainsaw impressive again. I hope he doesn’t get cynically burnt in the shadow cabinet rearrangements.
If Joe wants Turnbull to stay, the best thing he can do is pretend to be running.
The longer he has Minchin and co believing he’s in the game, the less time they have for a Plan Q (I’m assuming that that’s about where we are in the cunning plans so far…)
Of course, Joe may just be a dithering dill.
ania, sounds like pure fantasy, although i would love to see the Abbott experiment
Just all our blood, sweat and tears, BH.
There’s no point any longer hiding what the party actually thinks cos there currently isn’t a party.
Hey Ania lets have a celebratory drink tomorrow to cheers we were right, the ETS gets passed and the libs will either have a poisonous Abbott or an Untenable malcopops. I’ve got a nice bottle of Billecart
How about if after Abbott is out out after the first round and then Joe pulls out?
As explained earlier, Fielding and the Greens have decided not to support a motion to send the CPRS bills off to a committee. This means a drawn vote which means that the motion is lost. This, in turn means that the Libs have to vote on the bills at some stage.
In less than 24 hours we’ll have a better idea what’s happening.
ania, I think it’s a fair point, and if the spill motion is successful, and if Hockey doesn’t challenge, I won’t be altogether surprised.
However, I also think it’s reasonable, on the basis of Hockey’s clear machinations over the weekend and today to have Turnbull vacate the position in his favour, to speculate that he may challenge.
Uhlmann says it’s a run-off in a three-cornered contest.
Sounds like Turnbull goes first, then it’s Abbott vs Hockey with Hockey winning and allowing a conscience vote.
That’s just not going to work.
My spidey senses tell me that Abbott and Minchin got Hockey to run against Turnbull, to split the moderate vote, then Abbott conveniently said he’s running to gain all the looney right vote + the centre voter
You’ll find it in the Pathology Library of any decent medical school, under Frankenstein 101.
Dont forget Sophie Mozzarella said yesterday: “We have plenty of talent in the Liberal Party to choose from”.
This from sportingbet.com.au
Liberal Leader at Next Federal Election:
Sloppy $1.20 (!)
Mad Monk $5
MT $7
Any other $11
Andrew Robb $17
Peter Dutton $21
Julie Bishop $34
I’m hedging my bets on Malcolm and Tony – Hockey won’t last, even if he does get up tomorrow. And who the hell put money on Dutton to bring him in to $21? He deserves to be out there at $101.
Mmmm bubbles for breaky! Here’s cheers libs, I love ya work
I’ll get it fumigated first
What are the odds on the Wilson Tuckey – Bronwyn Bishop ticket? I think they are the dark horses.
BK
The Rebels hate him because of the deal with Penny!
He’s toast if Abbott gets up!
Add a couple of zeros to that price – 3400 is more like it.
Psephos, those are the only ones listed, so I assume they would fall under ‘Any Other’
GG
And the first order of business in the Senate this morning was to defeat a Fielding amendment to delay the *vote* on ETS to February.
Senators have been told they will be sitting 10am to 10pm every day until a vote is taken. I think exhaustion will take its toll and we will get a vote tomorrow afternoon.
I hope you are talking about the couch, Vera.
The party would then have a lock on the geriatric, slightly crazy, red-neck Northern Beaches vote.
This is still not very fair. Here we have this petite, soft spoken, smiling, obliging, asian woman beating the shit out of a bunch of hairy aggressive white gringos for the last 3 days.
And you’re all magnificent too, Aristotle.
Vera – I’ll need cheering up with some nice piccies of Kev/Obama/Therese tomorrow night if you can find some please.
I think Hockey will win. Turnbull is the VOTE YES candidate, Abbott is the VOTE NO candidate, Hockey is the VOTE HOWEVER YOU WANT candidate, which is the compromise the Liberals have been searching for all year.
This Liberal show is the best in town. I reckon Dogma youre onto something. Why would the right want Hockey when they could have Abbott?? Abbott for leader!!!
dogma @ 925,
I reckon you’ve nailed it!
Actually I prefer if the ETS doesn’t pass the Senate with the concessions to the Liberals.
I have every intention to hold this government accountable to CPRS legislation like I did in my 2007 ballot electoral choice.
I voted Green first in the Senate.
Laocoon,
You sound surprised that someone would contradict themselves in this debacle.
Did you hear Ron Boswell say to Wong that he couldn’t “beat it [the answer to a question] out of you, so please just tell me the answer?”
I’d hedge my bet between MT and MM. Hockey will be a very temporary leader.
The right’s plot to get Turnbull is so transparent. Its not about the policy, its about the leader
Because as with the the party room vote on the CPRS itself, the right wing nutters DON’T HAVE THE NUMBERS.
The thought of being in Canberra all alone on Xmas Day will ensure they pass the legislation – plus the ire of the senator’s partners.
Aristotle
A good spray with Baygon wouldn’t do mesma any harm
BK,
I reckon that’s how it will play out!
Finns
I’m watching it now. Penny has been magnificent. There’s no way I could keep my cool in front of some of those creeps.
Ron heard Chainsaw say Wong was cool.
Thought he said, she was a coolie.
GG – yeah Fielding is a very special individual for sure!
Finns…
Barnaby Joyce said today he didnt want to be emasculated by Penny. Little does he realise that I think she has already done him in
Utterly irrelevent, but I’d like to see Ian Macfarlane saying the following phrase during a press conference: “Always watching you, Wazowski. Always watching.”
The problem with Dogma’s great theory is that in a three cornered contest, Abbott might win overall, but wouldnt then 1st and 2nd go head to head so Hockey win??
Finns,
She’s been absolutely brilliant.
The easiest way for Turnbull to knock off Abbott would be if he invites Hockey to run as his deputy.
Then the Right gets exactly what it doesn’t want, two moderates as leader and deputy leader!
And I love it, Finns, when she talks dirty and says her ETS is almost the same as the Howard version which was agreed by them all. She is a giant in my book.
Bh
I’ll go on a photo hunt for you tomorrow
And Penny is lecturing Erica about Worstchoices and the lack of debate
According to Mischa Shubert if 1 candidate wins 50%+1 votes in the first round they become leader instantly. If no candidates gets 50%+1, then the candidate with the least votes is excluded and another round of voting takes place.
What about Memsa?? Surely this talented cannot go unrewarded tomorrow. Mesma for leader!!
Penny is giving Erica a very measured – and cool of course – dressing down.
ShowsOn, Abbott cant get 50% + 1 in a three way, surely??
Wong to Erica: With Serfchoice – 15hrs Committee Debate. Now CPRS – she already fronted 23hrs Committee debate and counting.
Donkey.
Laocoon – that is really funny. The dopey devil doesn’t even realise he’s been done. I want the wind taken out of his sails, please.
How does Abbott propose to stop the 8-10 Senators voting for the CPRS? By flapping his ears?
I wouldn’t think so.
Hockey is mid-40s, plenty of time to be leader. The opposition is a rabble who will lose the next and the following election. The opposition either now or in Feb (would get through now on a conscience vote) will pass the bill. Again, why would hockey want to be leader NOW???
Hockey will win easily, if he runs. Turnbull will come third in that event.
I have a funny feeling that Hockey still hasn’t firmly decided what to do. Part of him thinks “this is crazy, we will get minced in the election and I will be blamed”, and part of him thinks “how often do you get handed the leadership of the main Opposition party without even having to fight for it”.
“Barnaby Joyce said today he didnt want to be emasculated by Penny”.
She’s already wearing the earings just to rile him some more.
LOL! Well he made it very clear that he was running on a VOTE NO platform. But you raise a fascinating point, what if 7 just cross the floor and defy their new leader.
Wouldn’t exactly be an ideal start to his leadership would it?
He may resign forcing a new spill! 
A good general spray at the Oppo from Wong there. She’s been answering their inane questions for 23 hours, much longer than was allowed for debate on WorkChoices.
Finns, she is an Australian woman.
I agree, because he will unite the pass the damn CPRS forces with SOME of the anti-Turnbull forces. That’s a big enough coalition to defeat both Turnbull and Abbott.
Of course, if Hockey shifts away from his plan to give MPs a conscience vote, then he will lose part of the pass the damn CPRS forces, which could hand the leadership to Turnbull.
oooh Ania, alright then, you drive a hard bargain. Are we even in the same state?
At least if Joe becomes LOTO it will keep him out of the pie shops
ruawake @969: ROFL. Those ears…
I’d be amazed if it even needs a second ballot.
Penny for Australian of the year!!!
Could it be that Hockey announces he will let the CPRS pass is a signal that when push come sto shove tomorrow he won’t actually nominate, and will instead let Turnbull go against Abbott, which Turnbull will win?
I feel sad that Matt Price isn’t around to document this hilarity.
Is it not down to Hockey’s ego?? Common sense and political sense dictate that its better to take over when Turnbull loses the next election rather than now. I wonder if he is spooked by the ghost of Costello and wants to grab it while he can
And all day, from 10am this morning to now; I am exhausted just watching it intermittently. She is an absolute star
Where are they up to with the amendments by the way? They only did 35 out of the 300 odd on Friday.
Q: Are Hockey and Turnbull smart (and united) enough to be stitching Abbott up?
Something like:
- Hockey remains enigmatic and the spill vote gets up on the back of people who are expecting Hockey to run
- Hockey then doesn’t run, expresses full support for Turnbull and gets the deputy role instead?
A: Probably not. But hoping for it might keep me sane.
Tonto to Lone Ranger: “what do you mean WE? white man”
Rudd chose a good team.
LOL! It would be hilarious if the partyroom vote matches these webpoll figures:
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/poll/display/0,22621,5042420-5006301-1,00.html
Which equals the legislation passing. The loonies will not be happy.
Vera – thanks. Kev is a stand out at these International ‘do’s. Makes you realise how awkward Howard looked most of the time when he was o/s – except with Bush and the cricket.
No one listening to her would think Wong is anything but Australian. And exceptionally gifted in public speaking to boot.
But it also equals “have another huge fight about party policy before the next election”. A nightmare.
EXACTLY! That would be the BEST result for the forces of sense. Both of them get the leadership posts which leaves the right wing forces on the outer.
Anyone who says the Liberals will repeal the CPRS gets sacked and put on the backbench.
What happened to that China born Asian business woman?
Shows On,
They’re already there.
The conscience vote is a transparent attempt for Hockey to retain his credibility on an ETS. IF he votes for it
If they dump Turnbull it is going to be very easy to vote Labor at the next election.
Bernard Keane in Crikey today. Hockey’s ‘indiscipline …. tendency to resort to bullying’ is what shows on Joe’s face when he doesn’t get his own way. To me he acts like a bloke who has been terribly spoilt all his life. He will erupt as leader.
She’s in the attic with the bubble boy.
I would think that the State Liberals in SA and Tasmania would be feeling very nervous about their election prospects in March. If I ran the Greens in SA I would target hard some of the “safer” Lib seats in the 58-60% range. Here there may be many people willing to switch to Green to make a point to the Federal Party – a bit like Ted Mack in North Sydney in 1990 – that is, finish second and you could win with ALP preferences (people have been known to vote “tactically”, as they say in UK three-cornered contests).
I wonder how the Labor strategist is feeling who raised the idea of negotiating with the coalition on the ETS.
I’m reminded of the ANZ ad where there’s a team meeting and the village idiot suggests an idea, his team mates giggle and the light bulb goes on above the boss’ head.
Especially since he’ll be doing a job he does’t want, will have betrayed trusted colleagues and he’ll miss the pleasure of watching his young family grow.
BH, everytime Hockey spoke in parliament he shouted so much that nobody took any interest in what he was saying.
Reckon that will be his style if OL.
What is that Tasmanian woman babbling about?
So I guess the Dutton as deputy and Abbott as shadow treasurer is a non starter now?
Most of them are already on it
Pretty freakin chuffed!
Some idiot named Stewart on 2UE is saying that Turnbull should agree to delay the vote until February! He obviously hasn’t been following what is going on at all.
GG, that’s the bit i cant understand about Hockey. Being a good Aloysius old boy, how can he trade that with a bunch of donkeys like Abbott and Minchin.
dogma, it’s not a pretty picture!
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200807/r273686_1153812.jpg
No
I have standards that I could never lower.
Who had a comedy alter ego called Edward St John.
William! o the good old days!
But ShowsOn, what WOULD happen if Turnbull agreed on a conscience vote??
So does anyone think that everything will be resolved tomorrow?
The leadership decided and whether or not to pass the CPRS decided? Or is this going to go on all week?
William, are you saying that Tabitha and Edward were never seen in the same room at the same time?
Uh huh
Thx William
(I thought GP was tabitha)
Ah the old couplet writer. So much wit… well half at any rate.
They will vote for Hockey instead. I think a majority of the partyroom has had enough of Turnbull. They may agree with his position, but I don’t think they appreciate how he has argued it, i.e the interview on Today yesterday.
Dogma – and it wasn’t only the shouting (as in Vera’s piccie) but the really nasty look on his face. That look has surprised me because I thought he was the genial Kim B type who didn’t have a nasty bone in his body. I was wrong there.
or had the same IP address
Agreed. He certainly alienated more with his rant yesterday. But if Hockey is going to run on the basis of a conscience vote, Turnbull could pull the rug from under him
Well, well!! William has just explained it all and that makes both funnier than ever.
NEWSFLASH!
“I wonder how the Labor strategist is feeling who raised the idea of negotiating with the coalition on the ETS”
Either negotiating with them or no one. Libs got the power in the Senate when Fielding and X supports the Coalition.
not to mention the body language when he is hunched over (as far as he can) sending off tweets into the ether
1018
I have not been seen in the same room at the same time as almost all the worlds population but that does not mean that I am most of the worlds population.
Gus, like the Price is Right? Lower. lower, higher, higher
Why on Earth didn’t Turnbull just allow a conscience vote on this in the first place?
Isn’t this the bloke who accused Turnbull of being like Magabi in Zimbabwe? Seems he has a problem of his own
http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/story/2009/11/28/mps-drinking-row/
If Abbott runs I think Hockey wont, Turnbull wins. ‘If’ Hockey runs with a conscience vote on ETS then he wins against Turnbull.
The right need to come up with a legit back up moderate candidate in case Hockey doesn’t play and it ends up a possible Abbott Turnbull fight. They need somebody to drag votes away from Turnbull. But who do they have in reserve?
Erica Betz – arch creepy customer. Comes across like a pious 19th century C of E minister
Then who are you masked woman?
I think the new US ambassador has been impressed with Penny too.
Those CC denier whackaloon Libs wouldn’t like these comments by US ambassador either
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/ets-debate-entertains-us-ambassador-20091130-k11t.html
I suspect he was worried that a significant part of the party would vote against it, making the fragility of his leadership visible. The divisions would be like defacto confidence votes in the leader.
But as bad as that sounds, it is now pretty obvious it would’ve been the best strategy. If he only granted conscience vote for the back bench then it actually would’ve enabled him to sack some of the denialists from the front bench and install some sane back benchers to the front bench.
Oh here we go with the CRU cr@p
Even David Koch is going to Canberra for live coverage of the spill tomorrow.
The decision for Hockey is quite simple. 1. Run for leader now, lose the next election, retire, and become friends with Kev again. 2. Do not stand for leader now, become the leader after the next election, remain in politics, chance becoming PM when fortune changes sides.
Even David Koch is going to Canberra for live coverage of the spill tomorrow.
If Hockey becomes leader can we have Kochy and Mel as the new, alternating speakers?
ShowsOn @ 1039
That will give us a real in-depth coverage, for sure!
Kochee would want to be on the spot to congratulate his mountain climbing mate.
Mel and Kochy – kingmakers
Why should Turnbull should have thought of allowing a conscious vote when CPRS legislation was party policy under Howard?
Once Ive finished my opus magnus, “death of a (poll)bludger”, I will devote my life to winning the price is right.
Betz speaking on climategate. Heaven help us.
Speaking as someone broadly in the science community, one of the more minor but nonetheless real pleasures of this matter is that I can be reasonably confident that this anti-science trog will no longer be Opposition Spokesman for Science.
Abetz: “Dr Mann’s hockey-stick graph has fallen into disrepute.”
TP,
He certainly had a good crop of talent to choose from!
Unlike the other mob which has proved conclusively over the past couple of weeks, just how shallow a pool they have!
Wow, a climate change denier trots out a standard denialist trope, I’m so surprised.
Vera, he looks like he’s belting out a real high note in that picture.
Scarpat, I reckon he never was a true friend to Ruddy, just pretended for TV. There is footage back when Rudd was contesting the leadership and the sunrise debates were pretty popular. Rudd was moving one way down a hallway and Hockey was going the opposite way. Rudd went to shake Hockey’s hand and Hockey pretended he didn’t see.
Abbott better odds than Turnbull, that’s surprising.
WHo on earth would be dumb enough to bet on Bishop at $34????
Triton
Mann’s Hockey stick… Umm which one he has 3 at least. The deniers might wish that the Hockey Stick was dead, but the only way that would happen is if they actually published something… I think we’ll be waiting a long time for that!
Bishop.
shows you beat me to it
but which one?
On the casting couch? that’s cheap.
Ah, good times. Was just idly looking around for stuff about the 1989 Peacock coup and game across this:
“JOHN HOWARD: I am continuing to respond to interviews on this issue because I happen to believe that the perception of the standards of the party are important. I happen to believe that when people of enormous power in the party publicly boast about how successful they have been in telling lies, that those who care about the party have a right to talk about it publicly, to express the concern – indeed the outrage – of many ordinary members of the party about it.
I mean, the fact is that people boasted about how clever they had been in telling some lies. Now that’s a pretty serious thing and I’m not prepared – and there are many other people who are simply not prepared – to say: Oh, well, that’s just politics, and sweep it under the carpet.”
*giggles*
WHo on earth would be dumb enough to bet on Bishop at $34????
I’m surprised she got such good odds.
Well, Speers is rIGHt for a change.
You sure it wasn’t the other way around!!!
LOL! Yeah, I should’ve written “2 Bishops + 1 Abbott”.
Here comes McGauran again. Should be fun.
Does anyone have the votes for the “sit till we decide” vote this morning. I thought I heard it was 43 to 28 or something like that which means the Libs split. I wonder how any Libs can vote for a deferral of decision given their supposed party room position.
Classic! Julie Bishop running as Abbott’s Deputy tomorrow!
Dogma – we’ve had exactly the same thoughts here since that time. Apparently Howard told Hockey to break the connection and Hockey did. True friends don’t do that.
Kev never throws insults to Joe across the Chamber or outside it but Joe never misses the chance to diss Kev whenever he can. If they were friends he would do it in a political sense only but Joe does it about Kev as a person. He is doing his Master’s bidding (meaning Howard).
Look back at Killen and Daley – they were friends and enjoyed the political stoush but it never ever was personal. Joe is in the same league.
I hope that ticket wins and then a bunch of moderate Liberals cross the floor in the Senate and pass the CPRS, and then Abbott resigns.
scorpio, do you have a source??
Martin B, and who is still around who was party to this – good old Wilson.
So if Hockey or Turnbull is excluded in the first round, the other one should nominate the other to run as their deputy.
Scorpio – If that’s not BS that will ensure the demise of the Monk’s ticket.
And they laffed, and they laffed, and they laffed! By the way, does Tony know?
LOL! Wong has totally pissed off Barnyard by saying that his questions don’t make any sense.
Wong:
Penny just drilling Barnaby, telling him that she has great difficulty understanding most of his questions.
Is that for real Scorpio? Abbott/Bishop I mean.
MartinB – a blast from the past and I loved the bit about ‘lies’. I wonder if the old bloke ever reread his words!!
Astrobleme:
I believe there are several HS graphs, but I didn’t think they were all Mann’s. Anyway, there are claims (which I am not in a position to verify or otherwise) that the several graphs use at least some of the same data. I only quoted it because it is a statement of significance in the Australian parliament. I think “fallen into disrepute” is a bit strong. There are objections to the graphs but I don’t know if they’ve been addressed by the scientists. This followed on from Abetz’s raising the East Anglia emails, which he wants the government to evaluate and make a statement on.
Not sure, Scorpio. I think.
Neck and neck with the lead up to Labor’s victory.
Nicked off meanwhile to watch Kerry, (hooray, Ian Macfarlane) Clive James, then a bit of Labor in Power on the History Channel.
How pertinent to see Hawkie saying Keating was arrogant and not suited to PM office.
Then the stuff about Jack Lang.
Might advise Malcolm to watch, if he is not sleeping or consuming oysters.
Saving me from reading all the comments, was Annabel Crabb’s brilliant piece on the ABC spill thing made recommended reading.
Part extract:
The mad splendour of King Malcolm
By chief political writer Annabel Crabb – analysis
“Turnbull was very vigorous in his representation of the naked madman; his crouchings and wild outbursts were, on the whole, well done and the danger of being comical was, for the most part, avoided.”
So reads the review, in Malcolm Turnbull’s old school magazine, of his portrayal of poor mad Edgar in Shakespeare’s King Lear – the critically acclaimed Sydney Grammar 1969 production, that is.
Mr Turnbull was 15 years old.
There is something madly splendid about the grown-up Turnbull, this past weekend.
Having absorbed the sort of assault that would utterly devastate most political leaders (the wholesale resignation of numerous colleagues, and public attacks from some of the most powerful members of his parliamentary team), he remained astonishingly blithe throughout.
Andrew,
News flash on ABC!
Early start tomorrow – night all.
From a political point of view the Liberals best bet is to say with Turnbull.
From a sadistics view point wanting a landside wipeout i want the Liberals to go with Abbott.
Hockey is a neither way leader, he doesn’t strike me as a leader, i think considering his colleagues describe him as a good boy tells me a few things about Hockey.
His very poor performance during the GFC should stand as a warning to anyone who thinks Hockey is the way forward, Turnbull is the only one who looks like a leader.
Regardless Rudd is sitting pretty.
People were asking what JB has been up to!
We now know! Up to no good!
Omigod!
Not Julie Bishop.
Weeping with laughter.
Yes. It was an excellent example of a senior climate change denying Liberal Senator fillibustering about whether or not climate change is real instead of speaking to the amendment before the Senate.
The Senator was being irrelevant, and should’ve been told to speak to the amendment.
While everyone is throwing around nonsensical leadership suggestions for the Liberals, the Republicans in the US aren’t too far behind.
The draft Cheney 2012 campaign has begun in earnest!
http://www.draftcheney2012.com/
Scorpio @ 1081
Casting couch activity perhaps?
Looks like ABC is going to start up a rival to The Punch and Crikey, called The Drum starting next week.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/30/2756945.htm
That would be great. Obama would get about 450 electoral votes if he ran.
It’s Annabel Crabb’s baby.
She quit Fairfax last week.
Relevance is always defined very broadly. Whether or not climate change is real or not would almost certainly be considered relevant to whether you should support amendments to a climate change related bill.
MB
Hockey is a neither way leader, he doesn’t strike me as a leader, i think considering his colleagues describe him as a good boy tells me a few things about Hockey.
Peter Martin’s Blog has this to say about Hockey
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Two of the likely candidates Tuesday are competent public administrators
The third is Joe Hockey
As Workplace Minister he oversaw a system that couldn’t even tell employers what they had to pay…
He spent $585,000 a day promoting at “fairness test” that at the time wasn’t being applied…
He commissioned economic modelling with terms of reference so rigged it was never released,
He said young people were perfectly capable of negotiating pay with their employers, but repeatedly refused to appear in front of an audience of them to defend the claim…
As Human Services Minister in charge of a $1 billion plus information technology project he eschewed a pilot program declaring pilots were “for planes, not for technology”…
He called for tenders for two IT projects each worth hundreds of millions of dollars ahead of submitting the legislation to parliament (a process that caught the attention of the Audit Office) and spent $3 million advertising the program before it had Senate approval (which it never got)…
As Shadow Treasurer his record has been mixed.
But as an alternative Prime Minister?
I suppose it would be okay to put him up if there was little risk of him getting his fingers near the levers of power.
Perhaps that’s the idea.
Good lord… the Bishop in bed with the Abbott… where will the jokes end
The chair of the committee says to Xenophon that he can remain seated when asking questions (he has a bad back)
Xenophon:
Annabel Crabb did her first blog for the ABC today.
It was linked to earlier!
Here!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/30/2757465.htm
It seems to be much stricter in the committee stage than say during question time. Lib and Nat Senators have been repeatedly instructed to speak more to the amendments.
Dogma! Any man who is called a good boy is not a leader! i can’t image anyone calling Abbott or Turnbull good boys.
Hockey strikes me as a nice guy which will see the Liberals thumped by Women for they perfer men than nice guys and men will not vote for a man that is less than manly.
They’re dividing on Green amendments again. These will go down.
Bit like a game of chess! Who are the pawns, the Queen, King and knights?
Minchin the King, Downer the Queen, Joe the pawn, and Macca an honourable Knight
Hockey strikes me as a nice guy which will see the Liberals thumped by Women for they perfer men than nice guys and men will not vote for a man that is less than manly.
You seem to have forgotten who the Prime Minister is.
Hockey will never be Prime Minister because, frankly, he lacks the intellect, and the drive to get there.
From the OO front page:
Surprise, surprise. The Renegers reneg yet again. They have no honour, no policy, no style. They lie, cheat, steal, whinge and throw tantrums. They make promises they never intend to keep, agreements they never intend to carry out. They shake hands on a deal and then claim they never made such a deal; someone else did. They are not men of their word, yet they accuse others of being the “wreckers”.
Poor Sloppy Joe: he’s in this way out of his depth.
(as opposed to his breadth).
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/malcolm-turnbull-and-joe-hockey-are-heading-to-a-leadership-showdown/story-e6frgczf-1225805445067
The Greens look so lonely on the left side of the chamber. Why are the other parties so unkind?
To quote puberty blues:
“What a fishface mole!”
Downer is out!
Erica makes a perfect queen! Even talks like one!
None of the Labor leadership ballots were like this.
Someone goes in cuts the leader down, then everyone shuts up and gets back to work and keeps their animosity to themselves (only to publish it in a memoir a decade later).
The Liberals can’t even get a leadership spill right.
King. Malcolm.
Pawn. Joe
Knights. Pollbludgers.
Dewgong Nice Guy has too meanings, one is that guy is a top bloke the other is that guy is a wussy! i am saying if women voters pick up that Hockey isn’t for making touch descions and is referred to as a good boy then the wuss version will stick.
Milne gave a long, very impassioned speech earlier objecting to free permits, then looked totally exhausted and distraught as Wong responded in her usual quiet, calm manner.
Or Pyne! How did I forget him…
How could you forget him! i can hear him whimpering “o my darling dario”
Yes, she certainly has that Confucian quality.
“See if you can take the pebble from my hand, Grasshopper”
Who will be the deputy leader if Turnbull is re-elected?
Hockey / Dutton, Abbott / Bishop, Turnbull / ? (Please don’t let it be Bishop as again).
Knowing our luck it will probably be Sharmane Stone.
Who will be the deputy leader if Turnbull is re-elected?
Chainsaw!
Bishop will only get up if Abbott does and he won’t!
According to Samantha Maiden, Hockey won’t appear on Sunrise tomorrow.
Not bad. A good City / Rural split and NSW / QLD as well. The libs are headed for a wipe out in QLD on current figures. (they may not even win 10 seats).
Easy one Shows on Turnbull/ Pyne
Bishop will be on the back bench and Julia will give her heaps. The killer stare and cat claws will be working overtime!
Did someone mention that Sunrise is live from Canberra tomorrow?
They will miss Shrek if he doesn’t appear!
I reckon he owes them one!
Senate adjourned
LOL! I totally missed this from Britney Speers. He is discussing all the emails and text messages he received from Liberals last Friday.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/twitterati-seriously-step-up-to-the-plate-as-shadow-ministers-fall-like-dominoes/story-e6frg996-1225805132797
Senate adjourns!
Shows
hockey will get his wish of deputy.
Mal’s chutzpah has blown the party out of the water, and hockey will be seen as the best compromise deputy
I wish Minchin could read………
http://www.theage.com.au/national/record-month-of-heat-and-rain-20091129-jywd.html
MELBOURNE is all but guaranteed to post its hottest November on record, in a month of strange weather that has produced above-average rainfall.
With one day remaining of spring, the city’s average maximum temperature was 27.6 degrees to Saturday, besting the 1862 record of 25.5 degrees for the whole of November.
Pyne has the same problem as Dutton – he will probably lose his seat.
And Pyne has stuck with Turnbull all the way, so he will probably get health or maybe even environment, and Greg Hunt gets climate change (if Turnbull is re-elected he will be able to finally control the climate change policy).
Even closer to home for Minchin, Adelaide posted its hottest November on record (122 years).
What’s the name of the statistician made reference to in the Senate wrt the hockey stick graph? I’ll do some googling.
Vera! One word!
MMMEEEOOOOWWWW
I thought the deal was Dutton in order for him to get Right wing support?
“Hockey strikes me as a nice guy which will see the Liberals thumped by Women for they perfer men than nice guys and men will not vote for a man that is less than manly.”
Take a chill pill.
Yes, it’s been a bad November for this bludger who prefers winter.
Okay Turnbull/Minchin then like an arranged marriage
Boy O Boy! We can expect plenty of this for a while now!
Do those Rebel clowns realise what they have done!
The Coalition will be nothing more than objects of ridicule!
Bring back Fast Forward and all the other comedy shows! What a storehouse of material they would have now!
He wasn’t named by Abetz, but I’m sure it would be McIntyre.
We missing any S.A posters tonight?
http://www.theage.com.au/national/naked-man-nicked-in-womens-underwear-20091130-jzby.html
What’s the name of the statistician made reference to in the Senate wrt the hockey stick graph? I’ll do some googling.
Start your searching here
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2009/10/mcintyre_misunderstood_somehow.php
Hockey/dutton was the dumbass media being too lazy to check some simple facts
Timewasting wasteoftimers.
Since mals sermon on the steps of parl, a lot of libs are funked.
the big bluff didnt work so where to now.
Those mps in the marginals will now run to who gives them the best chance-hence turnbull/hockey papers over the needed cracks/
the trogs are dead long live the wets
Ania! Do you care to explain why you think i need a chill pill!
Yeah I read that. Walking in Kent Town naked, then in pink women’s undies. Bizarre.
Because you start your replies with their name and an exclamation mark
They should do a live cross to Washington!
I’m sure Kevvie would love to do a spot tomorrow!
Just remember, you heard it here first!
Bob
did they chafe
Bob1234!! I do that out of respect for the person i am responding too, the ! saves me having to start a new paragraph.
Nup. Fev’s in town.
Not very bizarre to this Red Wombat (little black duck for most)
I thought Hockey was supposed to be the rights compromise candidate. So what is Abbott running for now? Hockey (if he was going to run) may pull out if he thinks Abbott will win as it puts him in no-mans land, no friends on either side.
So why did you do it?
Bolt has more scintillatingly brilliant strategic advice for Hockey.
Who’d expect something as cravenly idiotic and transparently imbecilic from Hockey, or in fact, anyone other than Fielding?
That was Hockey until he told them that he wouldn’t support blocking the CPRS.
Abbott is the “vote for me if you want to block the CPRS” candidate.
If the spill motion is a dead cert. could a Turnbull supporter move that all leadership positions be made vacant it would embarrass Mitchin maybe through him a bit.
Hockey still at this late stage has not said he will run I tend to believe it will be between
Trumble and Abbott ( I Hope)
Compromise for the sceptics means “You do what we say”.
That is the standard way to begin letters in both German and Russian:
Liebe Herr Professor!
Dear Alexander Petrovich!
Why doesn’t Bolta start up a No Action on Non-Existant Climate Change party? As you have said, he seems to have a Sarah Palin like tea bagger following.
I’m not sure what you mean. It does vacate the Leader and Deputy Leader I believe. The Senate Party Room elects the Senate Leader and Deputy Leader and I think Minchin and Abetz have good support in the Senate Party room.
I feel so very, very ill
I note that in the list of candidates for Leader of the Opp polled by Essential Research COALition supporters put “Don’t Know” at 18% and “Someone Else” at 14% ahead of Tony Abbott at 13%.
I’m sure all us lefties will pay for it sometime in the future, when political fortunes have been reversed and Labor is again in strife, but for the meantime, isn’t it nice to indulge in some Schadenfreude?
Now I know what it feels like to be a conservative, reveling in the misfortunes of others.
“Ania! Do you care to explain why you think i need a chill pill!”
Quite simple. When it comes to politics I detest statement like this….”Women for they perfer men than nice guys and men will not vote for a man that is less than manly”
Keep and adhere to political discussion, please?
SO
There is a Deniers Party already. I forget the name. They normally make up some disingenuous crap like “Responsible Climate Action Party” instead of coming out and saying “Climate Change Deniers Party”.
And NSW just had the hottest November on record as well…
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/hot-summer-tipped-after-record-november-20091130-k0od.html
Ania – Women and Men will vote on who thye think is the best person to run the country, if they think Hockey is weak that will hurt him politically.
Diogs
I think they call themselves ‘The Nationals”.
Whoever becomes leader, the question mut be asked: how long will The Deniers allow them to stay leader?
Well, they are two very good candidates, and get on slightly better with women…
It’s called the Climate Sceptics Party. It’s run by a CrowEater (where did we go wRONg!!)
Their platform is;
* Dedicated to expose the fallacy of Anthropogenic or man-made Global Warming (AGW)
* Committed to oppose all forms of a Carbon Tax including all Carbon Trading Schemes
* Pledged to resist all climate-related Government policies that are not based on independent and verifiable science
I don’t think they understand the meaning of the word “sceptic”.
Regardless of the outcome there will be so many voters who see the Libs as an ill-disciplined, ill-tempered and untrustworthy rabble that they may never get back into power for 3 or 4 more electoral cycles.
The etymology of the word hockey is uncertain. It may derive from the Old French word hoquet, shepherd’s crook, or from the Middle Dutch word hokkie, meaning shack or doghouse, which in popular use meant goal. Many of these games were developed for fields, though where conditions allowed they were also played on ice.
17th-century Dutch paintings show townsfolk playing a hockey-like game on a frozen canal.
Aren’t they running in Bradfield, Saturday?
Correct. I think it’s an acronym.
BB
Today mal stared em down.
And like all bullies confronted by a bigger bully they shat emselves.
Turnbull will now start to mold the fibs in his own image.
Democracy via the use of the only medium ,ie force, that the deniers understand (Cos that is their style) is the winner.
Today was more momentous than many realise.
esp. the drones in the MSM
They don’t believe in climate?
What the electoral votes, it’s up the electorate. Males, females, transgenders and everyone else.
I certainly object you (or anyone), making a political discussion a gender issue on the terms you did.
Ania
chill already. Even leftist feminist organisations like EMILYS List talk about gender politics and the female vote.
Women and men clearly do react differently on different issues and it’s pointless pretending they don’t.
Goodness, you’ll have me sending my preferences his way if you keep that up.
crikey
“Hockey” is an anglicisation of the family name, “Hokeidonian”.
His heritage is Armenian and Palestinian, which can’t mean your family tree is too much fun trace.
Adelaide’s climate has clearly warmed to the point where even wearing only men’s underwear is too uncomfortable!
Thanks Dio!
The word sceptic has been hijacked in this debate. Scientists are the most sceptical people there are because they need to have a heap of evidence before they are sure about something. The people that don’t believe in AGW aren’t sceptics at all, they are just deniers.
Lyndal Curtis (ABC PM):
That’s probably Troeth
I think he did, to his credit. But I’m not sure just staring them down is enough. Turnbull has atoned a lot for Utegate, but it’s not enough.
It’s pretty clear to me that the Right of the Liberal Party has decided it’s time to expend the last reserves of leadership potential from the Left. Once Joe is gone it’s all over and (they think) they’ll have a clear run.
Joe is a dupe. He can’t possibly survive these bastards.
If the LNP was Federal we wouldn’t have all this uncertainty…
Too right! The Minchin / Abbott forces really lost things in the late afternoon when Fielding said he would vote against delaying the bills, which seems to have prompted Hockey to put forward the conscience vote option.
But the Liberals keep spouting lines to use against the potential leaders. SUch as Abbott saying that giving a conscience vote on this issue would mean the Liberals aren’t a “Credible party”. If Hockey wins then the Government will just use that line against them.
Have had a busy day, and only just read “The Australian” editorial
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/a-good-deal-so-cool-the-hot-air/story-e6frg71x-1225805135321
Boy, has Rupert sent out the word to his minions or what!!
When the dust settles , I intend to write a book about the last few weeks, a hell of a lot has not been reported or wrongly reported by the MSM
Being in thrall to the libs they cant see beyond their own noses.
Luckily we have PB to report it as it happens.
Without fear or favour!
scorps
I think they have a candidate in Bradfield but I’m not sure if it’s under the party banner. They were having trouble getting registered in time or something.
Perhaps the AEC wasn’t too impressed with party member signatures all being “X” and being covered in pools of dribble.
Have you tried women’s underwear?
So will Minchin, Abbott and Erica Betz quit parliament if they lose tomorrow?
You could probably write one on Speers alone
If Minchin and co lose this it will be a massive embarrassment. That will look pathetic and they would have made Turnbull. They cannot lose and should be looking to do anything to not lose, including passing the ETS as much as they obviously hate it. They have created an issue beyond Turnbull and the ETS now, now it is also about their credibility and future influence.
Just caught the end of Paul Bonjurno on 10 late news. He said the ETS will be passed by end of week and I gather (from coming in halfway through his sentence) that he was saying hockey would be the new leader.
Only a person of honour would do that.
Sure hope not. They will be the Government’s best asset, destabilising the Libs each and every day.
If Minchin and co lose – and they probably will – things will get very interesting.
Most of those who have resigned have done so, I believe, thinking that they’ll be back in the Shadow Ministry this week.
I’m with you Gus! Hang in there bro.
Let me know when you are looking for someone to read the drafts.
Now that is a darn good Q.
Maybe Rudd can do a reverse of the deals he’s done so far…offer them an incentive to stay in Parliament!
If they can’t get Abbott elected they will let Hockey have the job just to spite Turnbull, and so Abbott is best placed to take over after they lose the next election.
Ok, found what I was looking for..
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/myths-vs-fact-regarding-the-hockey-stick/
http://www.realclimate.org/RuthetalJClim2004.pdf
“It should be noted that some falsely reported putative errors in the Mann et al.(1998) proxy data claimed by McIntyre and McKitrick (2003) are an artifact of (a) the use by these latter authors of an incorrect version of the Mann et al. (1998) proxy indicator dataset, and (b) their misunderstanding of the methodology used by Mann et al. (1998) to calculate PC series of proxy networks over progressively longer time intervals.”
In other words, our dear Senator not only can’t be bothered to avail himself of the research staff at his disposal, he’s talking out his arse.
Sorry Zoomster, why are you telling me to chill?
Mate, I don’t really care for an answer. Maybe instead of thinking “feminism” you should take a look to the statement I objected to in the first place.
If you can see nothing wrong with it, np. When it comes to politics we all vote – it’s what counts.
I’d love to know how easy it would be to dis-endorse certain Senators…
zoomster 1192
Funny isn’t it – if the Libs end up passing the ETS with Hockey as leader, what does that say about Abbott’s holier-than-thou “This is a policy issue, not a leadership issue”
At least Minchin, Abbott and Abetz probably believe in what they are doing – but I think many of the others who resigned did so in the hope of being “rewarded” by them in the future. Like rats who jumped from the Marie Celeste and then saw it sail away and not sink after all!
They should do what they do in New Guinea! Fingerprints! They can then be compared to the NSW Police fingerprint register!
They might be able to take a fair few of them off the streets for us!
Humphries again supporting the bill on LL
A certain J. Bishop, we’re looking in you’re direction too
Ania
so why haven’t you objected to the ‘prissy Pyne’ type statements which litter this blog? Surely they are based on the same principle.
Cheers, will let you know closer to first draft
Turnbull shouldn’t be surprised if he wakes up in the morning to find a horses head on his front steps!
The right ought to have know with Turnbull, viewing his history and having care of Nelson’s prediction that he was a real narcissist, that high drama is exactly the sort of thing Turnbull aches for. All that commentary they made, all those resignations, all the high profile stuff simply invigorated Turnbull. IMO
Like an adrenalin junkie Turnbull maybe a drama junkie, the higher the stakes the better, the higher the risk the better, this is what he loves, to be Napoleon going into a famous battle. Which Napoleonic battle is this one?
As Moir has cartooned, it would be more likely to be a cat
Just shows how “smart” she really is! A real pretender!
Wouldn’t surprise if she cheated her way through Uni! She’s a wizard at plagiarism!
Not good enough for the Anti-CC Mafia!
All of rm, except hopefully waterloo
You know who I’d nominate to be Liberal leader?
Chainsaw McFarlane!
I’m damn impressed with that man:)
Johnson floundering already on LL
Johnson switching to Abbott from Hockey. The guy is a clown.
Based on current QLD polling, he’ll be out of parliament after the next election!
Good riddance!
Gusface,
Better to leave out Bob’s contribution!
You’d still be writing it in 2050!
“so why haven’t you objected to the ‘prissy Pyne’ type statements which litter this blog? Surely they are based on the same principle.”
Beg you pardon? I take political statements with a grain of salt ….I take personal statements from bludgers different. Terrible isn’t it?
He’s right.. the LP does need a position.. just not yours bozo..
One can only hope
Dario, should I be rooting for an Abbott win tomorrow, just because it’ll stuff them up for the next 20 years?
The deniers have probably given Hockey more courage than he’ll ever have – so much so that he strode down the corridor today to confront the leader in his office. Hockey spends a hour with the leader, emerges, says bugger all, leaves everyone convinced that he’s told the leader that he intends to blow him out of the water at dawn and then lo and behold!! It turns out that he and the leader have had an ‘understanding’ for quite some time that the CPRS must be passed and any leadership alignment must be couched if not entertained.
Abbott must have thought he ‘scored’ but instead he’s again going home alone to his whip and self flagellation.
Sounds like a fish!
Finns will get him!
Johnson just happy the heat has been taken out of his misuse of government car problem. That’s why he jumped late – he was probably going to be sacked from his position anyway!
So.. if MT wins, this guy is going to vote along the party line? lol
Getting serious, the implications of an Abbott win would be disasterous!
I could foresee the moderates leaving the party altogether and setting up a breakaway “Liberal Democrats” type outfit.
Agree?
evan.. I’d be happy to see Abbott win.. but only if it doesn’t prejudice the ETS. If we get the ETS and Abbott then I’m definitely gonna get merry
May as well
Will TJ ask him about it?
Yes, Gusface. Before this rubbish began, Malcolm looked quite worn. But he has rocketed back.
Maybe its Botox? Or he thrives on other types of poison.
Anything different on Lateline? About to start here.
Looking forward to someone, hopefully, crucifying ‘People Spills’.
oh god.. waffle!
Johnson contradicts himself again. Idiot.
TJ beautifully puts Johnsons own words back at him and concludes that the thinks Hockey doesn’t have a spine
Hahaahaha….Tony Jones just blew the fool off
…and he didn’t
Just lots of Libs self-destructing. More of the same really.
LOL
Gotta admit though that I’d love to see Malcopops hang on, just to piss off the right wing hacks and the radio shockjocks(particularly all who work on one Sydney radio station, known as “Radio Liberal”).
Turnball I won’t forgive for the Grech Affair or the reembrace of the boat people scare campaign, but I admire the bloke for trying to take the conservatives into the 21st century!
heh.. there’s a guy whose notional margin got cut from 3.8% to 2.1%…
this sucker is going down! (Ryan)
oh.. that would so sweet.. watching the right wing shock jocks go nova.. *boom*..
Johnston makes Dutton look good, and that’s saying something!
Do we know for sure that Hockey is definitely running tomorrow?
Has any sort of deal been stitched up with Minchin?
Well that’s what he said tonight at about 6:30. He is running on a platform of definitely opposing the CPRS. He said he is worried that Joe Hockey will give all his back benchers a conscience vote which will enable the amended CPRS to pass.
http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/genpdf/chamber/hansardr/2009-06-02/0151/hansard_frag.pdf;fileType%3Dapplication/pdf
giggle
I’ve been asking the same question all night, Evan.
As far as it stands now Hockey is not running tomorrow.
According to the MSM
YES
NO
MAYBE SO
He may run with
Dutton- No he boards with the guy, wake up MSM
Anyone Else-well here is where the MSM go orgasmic but as usual no nothing.
Conclusion
No-one asked cos the MSM havent yet learnt to ask Q’s that arent pre-scripted.
But ask mal, and you get a glint in the eye.
say no more
Love this! MG still has it!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/events/liberal-turmoil/
A fair point from Chris “Toolman” earlier on the 7.30 Report:
Why on earth is Hockey trying to do deals with Steve “Wacko” Fielding?
Probably another brilliant idea from Minchin.
Liberal-lotto
Two quantum states – In the end the Libs pass the ETS (with Hockey or Turnbull) or don’t pass it (with Hockey or Abbott)
If they don’t pass it I don’t think any will leave the party except maybe Turnbull might quit Parliament at a time of his choosing. But in the election next year the moderates will do all they can in their own seat campaigns to distance themselves from their own party’s policy.
Similary if they do pass it I don’t expect anyone to leave (or join the Nationals) – maybe Bronnie might decide to retire at the next election. Parties are pretty robust and are often riven by divisive issues, just not usually as out in the open as this. Minchin has been around for a long time and I think even he would get over it and move on – much more so than Bolt and co. who would scream blue murder at the Libs!
I’m just praying that Hockey or Turnball win tomorrow and the CPRS gets passed!
“Liberal Radio” will go into meltdown, Alan Jones and Steve Price will slit their wrists live on air!
Bring it on, baby!
Lateline’s coverage of Liberal leadership battle was another example of piddle-weak journalism. Jones interviewed two Liberals, one Turnbull supporter and one Abbott supporter. You would think that somewhere in the whole of Australia, they could have found a Hockey supporter to present all three perspectives on the party’s options tomorrow.
Sleep well, Bludgers.
I want him to hang on just to see the reaction from the Bolter!
He made no bones about his dislike for Turnbull on Insiders!
Doesn’t like Hockey either, so a Turnbull/Hockey Quinella would send him bonkers!
Consider the efforts of these three women of Australian politics over the last few days:
Penny Wong = Solid as a rock – a tower of strength to the party and the leader
Julia Gillard = Solid as a rock – a tower of strength to the party and the leader
Julie Bishop = Unseen, unheard, reportedly working the couch overtime to secure her future in the disintegrating party whilst her leader battles on alone.
Pick the one that John West would reject.
Because once Fielding said he would block the move to delay the vote, Hockey was stuck and had to come up with the conscience vote compromise. Once Hockey did that, that opened up the way for Abbott to run as a block the CPRS candidate.
Scorpio: we could be lucky, Bolt and Porky Piers might both spontaneously combust at the same time.
I don’t think too much of the likes of MS on Insiders but some of the stuff they have been tweeting tonight has at least been funny!
Anyone else hear Mark Colvin on PM late last week demolish Bolt? Loved it!
Is this another case of Fielding shooting blindly in any direction and killing a bad guy by accident?
No more pollies in speedos, please, and I include the Ruddster in that!
Women don’t seem to work out in the Libs. I’m trying to think of even one in recent years that had a decent career and I honestly can’t.
evan14,
Geezus, you wouldn’t want to be too close if Pies went off!
Be like another Hiroshima! The stink would knock you out too!
Steve K
Yes, I do give credit to the other Bishop, Bronnie, at least she has come out fighting! JB – is she for Turnbull, is she for the ETS – who knows? Is she carrying an EPIRB – I’m starting to worry!
Yeah Bolt has a serious problem. He doesn’t understand that he is invited onto shows to provide political commentary, instead he provides climate change denial evangelism.
Stacker Johnson forgets about the current leader of his party:
Bolt on Sunday claimed 1) He isn’t a Liberal, 2) He believes in Climate Change!
Yeah, and I’m the tooth fairy!
Yeah, I’ve mentioned it a few times and got no response from other PB’s!
It was a real classic for sure! Loved the tanty that Bolter did at the end!
Colvin wouldn’t let him rant on about the e-mails and global conspiracies etc!
Every time Colvin tried to get him to comment on the political situation, Bolter would go mental and try and get back on to his anti-CC rants!
I just want to watch Bolt’s head explode…
(If you’ve ever seen the BlipVert episode from the series Max Headroom, you’d understand what I mean
)
Tonight’s Lateline was a perfect microcosm of the Liberal’s problems
Both Senator Humphries and Stacker Johnson said that the party needs a strong position on climate change.
They just both think that the strong position should be completely different.
Mesma Bishop and Sophie Mirabella: no wonder that they’re losing the female vote by 20 points!
shouldn’t you be out in your tinnie defending…..
Oh thats right, that was Troothy.
She can’t be for Turnbull if she is running for Deputy to Abbott!
She must then be against the ETS!
Mesma is history now! She has sold out on her leader!
Mirabella’s husband votes Labor in the Senate. Enough said.
Just read the PM transcript – very funny!
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2009/s2755822.htm
Yes, it was god – here it is in print]
If Hockey doesn’t challenge, that ruins the MSM script!
Today’s newspapers had already annointed him as the next leader!
Bolt always goes back to this ‘world is cooling’ rubbish every time. Anyone with a basic high school grasp of statistics can destroy that argument in 5 seconds. Yet, he is continually allowed to rant on and on in particular on the ABC programs, with too little critical analysis of his garbage.
That was such a dumb move by Abbott. Surely he knows that most of the party wanted to dump Bishop from the deputy-ship. An easy excuse to not vote for Abbott is just so Bishop doesn’t get to be deputy again. He would’ve been better with Sharmane Stone or Susan Ley as his deputy.
I would like an ETS passed and Abbott leader. But they appear to be mutually exclusive, unless he is aware and accepts that enough will cross the floor on it and that they party will go light on them.
Jeez…they don’t have many options to play with. A drama king, buffoon or creepy one.
True, and Ian Plimer has become another regular fixture on “Liberal Radio”. Any dodgy scientist and fake professor they can find pops up on Alan Jones or Steve Price.
May those divisions last for a long, long time
Some of you are truly naive despite internet, aren’t you?
Off to sleep. Good night.
Steve Price this morning was questioning the accuracy of Nielsen and suggesting the whole thing was made up, because on his radio show, he hasn’t had one call supporting the ETS.
Steve, maybe that’s because your show is rigged and the calls are screened to support your point of view!
What a pathetic little turd that man is, even John Laws hated him!
Riiigghht
And Chris Smith on 2GB: Ugh!
The same man who regularly pimps his 4 year old daughter Ashley to advertise his show, including putting pictures of her in the bath on his website!
Let me guess… “I’ve never been polled”
Is Ania the new Liberal troll?
It’s Bob1234 in a dress
Supposedly the most “reliable” poll:
93% of listeners on “Liberal Radio” want Abbott to be leader.
This is my favourite part:
HA HA
Frank: I see you had a good weekend thrashing those Greens on the Willigee thread.:)
Melbourne hated him as well – apologies for him ending up in your neighbourhood – we sent him to the tip – the truck must have been hijacked.
Surely if he knew enough senators would cross to pass the legislation he would be advertising that fact in order to win the leadership.
Next Newspoll if Abbott gets elected 60/40
Turnbull 56/44 ETS passed
Hockey 55/44 ETS passed and honeymoon
Laws called him “the angry ant” – very apt!
How bout Abbott and ETS?
The closeness of this poll is hilarious:
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/poll/display/0,22621,5042420-5006301-2,00.html
I hope the vote turns out like that tomorrow, that way it could be argued the party is split into thirds, instead of halves.
I guess the Liberals could split into 3 separate parties:
1. The Moderate Liberals
2. The Conservative Liberals
3. The Very Right Wing Liberals/Nutjobs!
Does anybody know how the Liberal Party vote for leader system operates?
Is it ‘first past the post’? That is whoever gets the most votes out of the currently 3 candidates [or so I believe] wins even if that person does not get a majority of the votes?
If one candidate does not get a majority what happens then?
Lowest vote getter drops out?
Second preferences?
Or another round hoping the situation gets clearer?
Anybody know?
Or what?
before I logg off and after a cyggy…..calling me a Liberal troll is hilarious. You may not see the joke – I do.
I lived the end of Franco’s time in Spain – my family was always Republican with no man left after the Civil War.
Night guys.
Now where have we heard “GAME ON” before
Original lot these jurnos!
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/its-game-on-for-hockey/story-e6frfhqf-1225805513082
ania, Please, smoke that cyggy outside
Vera, it is News Ltd, what else did you expect? High quality journalism?
1296
Lowest candidate gets eliminated, I believe.
Why people get personal with each other, unprovoked, is beyond me.
The slightly Liberal party
the slightly liberal Liberal party
The liberal Liberal party
the liberally slight Liberals
The liberally liberal Liberals
the liberally liberal Liberal party
or
The liberally silly Liberal party
Is it beyond the realms of possibility that Mesma might offer herself up as a “compromise candidate”?
I believe that there is a first round vote, if one candidate gets 50% + 1 vote they are immediately declared the winner. I believe that would require one candidate to get 42 votes in the first round.
If no candidate gets 50%+1, then the candidate with the least votes is excluded, and there is a second round with the last two candidates to determine the winner.
If in the first round the 2nd and 3rd ranked candidates are tied, there is a special round to determine who will go into the second round.
Did they meet George Orwell?
BTW Where is Generic Person? Was the ban William put on him permanent?
Some are quick on the draw here.
Dont take offence as it is rarely meant personally.
apols from the rest of us
The raving loony party?
Ania: sorry about that!
Didn’t mean to offend!
I better think next time before I type!
Isnt that the nats?
I cannot imagine why Hockey would run unless he was convinced that the right would make Turnbull’s leadership untenable and further damage the party. To retain at least some credibility he would have to allow the ETS pass.
But would he run if Abbott does? If he brings about an Abbott victory his name will be dirt on the moderate’s side and of course he is not one of the others either. He becomes mud.
Ah true. Should have known it would already be taken!
that would be wet dirt.
The Liberal Liberal Party.
The Iliberal Liberal Party.
The Liberal Iliberal Party.
Abbott is definitely running. And that makes it more likely that Hockey will run and win.
Hockey is probably really worried that if Abbott goes head to head with Turnbull he will win just because of Turnbull’s unpopularity.
I want to see the Liberal Party collapse with People Skills as leader.
Thanks for the input re liberal voting.
Pursuing the idea that lowest vote drops out then surely that would mean one of the 2 pro ETS types, Turnbull and hockey, would be third as they would be splitting the pro ETS vote and the the third candidate, Abbott, would get all the anti ETS votes which I am led to believe is somewhere in the vicinity of half the party?
1305
If I remember correctly Andrews`s spill motion was 48-35. This adds up to a total of 83 (not including any abstentions or absences) which is an odd number of votes. Half of this is 41.5 and so 42 is 50%+1/2 not 50%+1 and 42 still wins so the rule is in fact 50%+1/2.
http://www.vexnews.com/news/7516/the-numbers-impossibly-tight-turnbull-v-abbott-contest-cakewalk-for-hockey-if-he-runs/
What is up with Bolt? I always thought he was a rational intelligent person on the ‘right’. He reminds me of those cold call evangelist who sometimes arrive on your door step on a Saturday morning.
Who knows what’s going on inside Hockey’s head?
I doubt even he knows!
Alas he’s allowed himself to be used by Minchin, and perhaps too late he realised that the right weren’t going to offer him a viable deal on climate change that he could sell to the electorate, so that’s why he started embracing the “ETS conscience vote” option”. But Abbott wouldn’t have a bar of that one, so that’s why we’ve got the 3 way contest.
If Hockey’s numbers start drifting to Abbott, Hockey and Turnball will have to pool their resources and decide which of them is the stronger candidate to take on Abbott, because the right taking full control of the Liberals tomorrow spells decades in the electoral wilderness for them.
1314
You forgot the Illiberal Illiberal Party!
And with the CPRS passed thanks to some floor crossing.
Turnball stays as leader, the CPRS passes, a whole load of Liberal moderates are promoted to shadow cabinet, Minchin and his acolytes leave and join One Nation.
Ideal scenario if I take off my Labor supporters hat and pretend I’m a non-committed voter!
Put my Labor supporters hat back on, and it’s Abbott to win!
Nite all, fun times tomorrow morning!
I thought I better read this before closing the tab and couldn’t believe my eyes!
Shannahan is so far out of the loop it is “loopy”! Tomorrows rant should be good!
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/after-the-tumult-libs-get-back-on-track/story-e6frg6zo-1225805155391
turnbull has been in the hardnosed end of business.
he faced down KP and had howies measure.
can anyone seriously believe that the pussys that now call themselves liberals can stand up to him.
howard had them whipped like dirty dogs and turnbull is doing the sam though with the added spice of his accumulated business nous.
he would have said stuff it along time ago if he didnt have the powder in his locker.
Plus the pull of filthy lucre would turn many a drifter into a supporter.
mal aint just an MP, he is an institution in the big end of town
minchin and abbott have nowhere near the clout he can pull out
I suspect both are contemplating the repercussions of their actions
On the porcelain bowl, of course
1319
The problem is that the cake is mouldy raw chicken cake that is guaranteed to cause political death in 18 months or less.
Scorpio
I like what Peter Hartcher has to say much better
http://www.smh.com.au/national/turnbull-to-die-for-honour-20091130-k170.html
nice piece from one of the few journalists left
http://bit.ly/5h8ZJx
I can see by this when the deal with Abbott was stitched up by Mesmer but I wonder what happened when she met with Turnbull & Hockey?
Probably to tell them the good news of her new partnership with the monk and got told in return to get lost!
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/malcolm-turnbull-and-joe-hockey-are-heading-to-a-leadership-showdown/story-e6frgczf-1225805445067
What are the main outlets for tomorrow morning’s coverage?
Sorry if this is old but I found this link to the Newspoll data:
http://resources.news.com.au/files/2009/11/30/1225805/249750-aus-news-file-newspoll-091130.jpg
TP
she has been reading pollbludger again
This explains where Julie B has been… on the couch at the Sydney Institute.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/howard-not-the-man-to-give-advice-on-changing-leaders-20091130-k0zi.html
I’m Shannahan I’m Shannahan
I like to eat green eggs and ham
People Spills, ShowsOn.
Just had a quick look at this piece by Steve Lewis and it is clear to me that since the Grech episode, he seems to be somewhat left out of the loop!
The article is just second-hand gossip and guesswork! And very poor guesswork at that!
Serves the beggar right!
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/its-all-over-for-defiant-leader/story-e6frf7jo-1225805152950
Steve Lewis had very little credibility to begin with. He now has none.
If Hockey is LOTO then Rudd will have to be careful how he approaches attacking him, in fact Rudd would need to leave a lot of it up to others.
If they go too hard or too nasty on Hockey early he will get a sympathy vote and Rudd will get a backlash as being a bit too low. Poor old nice Joe with a new kid and all and all those nasty liberals around and of course they were mates, and he saved Rudd at Kokoda.
It will be a tricky thing to manage. So they should just stick to facts and the policy slip ups that Hockey and co always make. Not to mention the puppeteers behind hte scenes.
TP,
They could just ignore Joe! There is so much ammunition that Labor can use against the others that they won’t have enough time before the election to use it all up!
Similar problems, different country.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/29/AR2009112902935.html
Here’s a really good run-down on the days events as they unfolded as well as all the figures for the different votes that took place, especially the shonky one that Minchin based his attempt to roll the ETS and Turnbull!
Also an indication of just what a hypocritical mongrel Minchin is!
http://www.smh.com.au/national/minchin-plays-nice-guy-after-the-party-has-soured-20091130-k17f.html
Awesome
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/30/hadron-collider-big-bang-_n_373542.html
Talk about being out of the loop! This is the latest bit of confected nonsense from Steve Lewis! The work experience kid from high-school could come up with something better than this!
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/kevin-rudd-and-joe-hockey-shared-genuine-mateship-on-channel-7s-sunrise/story-e6frf7jo-1225805512013
Talk about classic! The leadership poll on the last HS , Lewis piece, doesn’t even include Malcolm Turnbull!
The poll is closed after only a total of 82 votes and includes Peter Dutton with 0 votes!
Full list is; Abbott, Hockey, Dutton, Andrews, Bishop, Robb, Minchin, Pyne!
Anyone would think that News Ltd has cut Turnbull loose!
I hope he gets up tomorrow, just to spite them! What a mob of wankers!
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/kevin-rudd-and-joe-hockey-shared-genuine-mateship-on-channel-7s-sunrise/story-e6frf7jo-1225805512013
Crikey, another Steve Lewis! This one wants to knock off Turnbull’s Wentworth seat for Labor!
http://www.smh.com.au/national/next-race-for-turnbull-starts-in-his-backyard-20091130-k17e.html
Now I’ve seen everything! The Libs have gone absolutely stark raving crazy!
Who would have ever believed just a week ago that the likes of Gerard Henderson would be giving Howard a backhander like this! lol
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/howard-not-the-man-to-give-advice-on-changing-leaders-20091130-k0zi.html
There’s a good bit of reading for people to start off their morning!
I’m off to bed. Lets see what the morning brings.
Today was hard to top, but I reckon the mornings spill and the Senate proceedings should be gold!
What the Liberal Party election rules for a three candidate ballot in the party room tomorrow morning? Preferential. First past the post? Second ballot after one candidate is excluded? (Apologies if this question has been asked before.)
Julie Bishop. Remember the heritage of the Mediterranean restaurant. CHOGM is coming. Bigger than the America’s Cup.
Interesting. On the front page of the OO online:
“TROGLODYTE: Minchin was a tobacco sceptic ”
David, I believe there is a run-off if no candidate receives 50% + 1 votes in the first ballot.
hockey will turn out to be one of the great liberal leaders. He will lead by following the instruction of the powerful of his Party. A rare gift.
And I’m pulling an allnighter as all the fun ad games start at 6am WA time
I am now ready and have a front row seat
Gee, these seats are comfortable, aren’t they. Pass the popcorn please!
Here’s something for us to enjoy while waiting for the main act.
Bernard Keane – Hockey will lead the Liberal Party to disaster
http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/11/30/hockey-will-lead-the-liberal-party-to-disaster/
Aussie MSM rating an F- on the lead-up to Copenhagen? OK, here’s The Independent (UK) The teeny part of my brain that constructs conspiracy is wondering if one of the reasons for the current Lib chaos is to mask what’s going on internationally … (Of course, totally hiding Rudd & any truimph he might achieve is already taken for granted).
Countdown to Copenhagen: A change in the political climate on emissions
Lots of links to other pertinent articles.
Here’s The Guardian’s Environment section’s Front Page: Copenhagen summit: Deal or No Deal and a good – and balanced – article on the Carbon Trading market Carbon trading could be worth twice that of oil in next decade Sub header: Market could be worth $3tn a year but enthusiasm to place it at heart of Copenhagen is matched by growing criticism of concept
And Australia gets a mention (Geez, The bloody Poms stroking Rudd’s ego!! Not wonder the Liberals are revolting!)
There are two episodes of the biggest loser to be run about this. The first is the adjectival show. It has been won my Julie Bishop and Nick Minchin.
Followed by the the literal meaning show and it will be Julie Bishop.
Ah that’s what the small L and big L stands for!!!
What a bunch of Losers!!!
Bring back John hewson…..Now he is the best prime minister that we never had, not the lazy bumb that just quit
Mad Uncle Wilson on Newsradio attacking Turnbull/Chainsaw etc.
BTW: A good site for the non-CC Deniers & True believers (inc. the pro-arms control, which OH & I are passionate about)
Scientists for Global Responsibility
PS: Sorry for #1360′s glitch. I obviously did something wrong at the end of “No deal” If the link doesn’t work, I’ll do it again & try to get it right.
From a Sunrise “Viewer” –
THeir ABC TV in the West are on 3 hour dely – GP has started here, same with 7 &9 – one of the most important days in Austraian political history – the media in 1975 managed to show the dismissal live nationally, yet in 2009, networking has reduced Perth to a relay station.
Newspoll graphic up http://resources.news.com.au/files/2009/11/30/1225805/249750-aus-news-file-newspoll-091130.jpg
Well, if Hockey’s running he is a shoo-in.
If he has any brains he will immediately make some big statements that differentiate him from Minchin and co. There’d be nothing they could do about it, and it would marginalise them, which is what the party needs.
I’m not holding my breath, though.
lol@ Newsradio replaying Turnbull’s interview with Kochie., and he’s on fire.
Bernard Keane (of Crikey) just told NewsRadio that Kevin Andrews may also throw his hat into the ring. I’d be hoping HE wins the leadership.
Oz Pol Tragic 1361
Thanks for the great links on Copenhagen. Your points about the coverage are well made. Brazil and Russia coming on board is very important. That really should increase pressure on the opposition to pass the ETS. One of the arguments against it (competitors will have an advantage) dissappears if Brazil signs up, because they are another big rival mineral exporter.
I am dumbfounded. I just saw an articel by Gerard Henderson in the SMH that I not only agree with, but is critical of John Howard! I can’t recall the last time I read such words from him. He correctly blames Howard for the current Liberal leadership mess:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/howard-not-the-man-to-give-advice-on-changing-leaders-20091130-k0zi.html
That’s outright denial.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/nick-minchin-was-a-sceptic-on-tobacco/story-e6frgczf-1225805535960
ooooohhhhh, according to an anonuymous voter in Bradfield, he won’t be voting Liberal and said there will be a voter backlash because of the implosion. – heard on Newsradio.
Meltdown.
Confessions
Interesting re: Minchin. I often wonder if people can realy be that stupid, even acknowledging Minchin’s appalling bungling of the GST regulations when first introduced. (anyone remember how confusing that was? Nick was in charge.) Does he have a vested interest? For those who can check, does Minchin own any shares in BAT or Phillip Morris? Or coal companies now? It might explain his motives in remaining so much a delusionist.
Fran Bailey has “special leave” result could be a tie.
cud chewer:
That is all five years old. I think there have been one or two more objections since then. In any case, RealClimate is as much a proponent of AGW as McIntyre is a sceptic. Like politics or a courtroom, each side in an argument is very good at putting a convincing case. If you read ClimateAudit it sounds just as convincing the other way. So, who do you believe?
I suppose it is too late for our campaign to get Wilson Tuckey “The Bush Statesman” to be leader?
According to Briteny:
Not too about that this morning. Turnbull on AM just said he has spoken to Howie and Howie thinks the free vote is a no-no. Also on RN, Bronny said Hockey is a deadmeat with this free vote thing.
Even Grahame Morris on AM said Turnbull is not yet completely dead,
I think one thing is clear, Hockey is doomed before he has even started.
Hewson talking sense on the Libs & CC on Sunrise – he wants a stronger CPRS scheme!
Thank godness Sky News is unmetered on Bigpiddle – ABC1 still has GP – hopefully it will go to News Special at 5.30aqm WST.
As I said before, there is no point in debating triton on AGW. If you didn’t know better, you would think someone is paying him to trot out these tired old talking points again and again. Real Climate is a site run by actual climate scientists; McIntyre is a Canadian oil geologist. Listening to him about CC is like asking a Marxist for an opinion on capitalism.
As I type Tweets not loading on ABC Liberal turmoil
Finnigans,
The free vote is a no-no. It will simply mean there’s another bloody altercation in the lead-up to the election, as they decide whether to make repealing the CPRS their policy.
But I can’t agree with you about the outcome today. Hockey will win.
Twitter is stuuffed full stop.
Looking for Hewson’s interview on 7, I found my horoscope:
That’s it Folks! Abbott & Dutton lead the Liberals to oblivion!
Meanwhile today’s SMH is speculating about a leadership challenge to NSW Premier Nathan Rees today. It seems Frank Sartor might be drafted by the Tripodli/Obeid camp!
He might, but a hollow win it will be. Hockey was seduced by all the sweet talkings about him as a unity candidate and then discover to his horror there is little thing called the CPRS that needs to be resolved. So he came up with this half pregnant solution.
Give me Abbott anytime, at least you know where he stands. He is the answer to my wet dream in his red cossie.
Measure of this crisis? I enjoyed this Oz (online) editorial:
Liberals need to get back to the fights they can win
Nice cartoon in the Age, commenting on Joe’s and the Lib Trogs’ chances of holding back the worldwide move to Climate Change action.
http://images.theage.com.au/2009/11/30/934469/svOPED_DEC1-200×0.jpg
We may be seeing the death knell of the notion that Australia is different; that everything already proven has to be re-proven here (tobacco, Climate, asylum seekers etc.).
First it was the “tyranny of distance” that kept us in the dark, isolated from world events. Then it was our media monopolies who took over. But even that’s breaking down now, as anyone can read and absorb anything, from anywhere in the World, instantly.
If the ETS fails to pass it’ll be a very short-lived, hollow victory as other nations line up to punish us for our cave-dweller antics. If even the OO has turned against the Liberals, at least on this issue, then the game is up.
I’m still a little surprised that the media give the Libs even the time of day. As they report each contradictory move po-faced, as if these lies and manipulations of the Liberal Party “rules” meant anything in the wider sense, they’ve done themselves no good in the long run.
I can see a giant flushing-out, a real “out with the old, in with the new” as the Libs wake up tomorrow morning and realise all this bloodletting has been for nothing. All they’ll have is a weak Joe Hockey, armed with promises from the Deniers in the Party not worth the breath they took to utter, and about as long-lasting. How anyone could believe a word Minchin or Abbott or Abetz have to say is beyond me, yet poor old Joe has believed them.
By all accounts he’s the last of the half-way plausible candidates from the Left side of the party. In prodding him forward, opouring sweet nothings into his ear so that he will fail, the Right think they’ve cleared the way for one of their own to take over unopposed when Joe craches and burns sometime next year. The only thing Minchin and his mates are good at is bastardry and the voters were already sick of that in 2007. How on Earth – and it’s a big Earth – they believe they can continue to get away with it is beyond me.
Stand by for the three man cage match – will MT manage to come from the top rope and clobber the other two?
Socrates:
Is it a “tired old point” just to say that when two sides are arguing you can’t always tell who to believe? That’s a fairly obvious point to make I would have thought.
You are just pathetic the way you misrepresent everything I say on AGW. Twice you said that I was dishonest and “shifting goalposts” and twice you refused to provide the quotes demonstrating this after I had provided the quotes showing you were wrong. You have the audacity to claim that I am dishonest when it is you who are making these ridiculous, wrong, over-the-top responses to my posts.
It’s pretty obvious that you are a completely closed-minded, religious believer in AGW who won’t stand for any expression of the merest doubt about it.
Oooh, stop hogging the popcorn! Twitter lists are down so the convenient press gallery feed won’t help us out: http://twitter.com/abcnews/press-gallery
Triton, the world’s moved on from the denialist view. Just have a look at the Copenhagen Diagnosis: http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.com to see how far behind the times denialists are.
Forgive me while I’m violently ill!
I wonder if Peter Debnam is still strutting around Bondi in his budgie smugglers?
Will it be?
The Slopster
The Bottster
The Bullster
My money’s on the Slopster.
The only arguments I’ve heard from Liberals on delaying the CPRS vote are to do with Kevin Rudd and his overseas trips.
Why are you telling me?
I posted few days ago that Howie is to blame for all of these:
It’s good to see Hendo agreed.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/howard-not-the-man-to-give-advice-on-changing-leaders-20091130-k0zi.html
Wow, the latest on the sloppiness of Hockey:
* He wants to defer it then a free vote. What a farq!!!!
Will be fascinating to see the chaos and turmoil if this happens
Plus Pollbludger:-)
Frank, i have to cancel meetings for to watch these donkeys. But i am not complaining
What will be funny: Minchin gets rid of Turnball, but he’s stuck with the ETS if Hockey gets up and brings on the free vote!
The right wing nutters might have outsmarted themselves!
I haven’t gone to bed – cos of the time difference I wanted to be up and watching
Yes, the Wowsers are out in force on that one, whipped up by the Bolts and the Alan Joneses of our 4th Estate.
I doubt whether it will matter that much, even in the short term. Rudd doesn’t seem to be being treated differently by the movers and shakers of Copenhagen. In fact he’s being feted by them. They know that the Trogs will go down eventually. This “not before Copenhagen” movement is the last shot in the locker of a bunch of ageing nobodies with loud mouths and narrow minds.
I don’t know where this perception of Hockey as affable, likeable, good-humoured, avuncular, and easy going comes from. As his nasty personal attack on two Sydney academics in October 2007 demonstrated, he is a bully. When people contradict him or embarrass him, he flicks the switch from rolly-polly funny man to boorish Catholic school thug.
AUTHORS of a report revealing employees on Australian Workplace Agreements are earning $106 less than other workers are preparing to sue the Federal Workplace Relations Minister, Joe Hockey, who branded them “former trade union officials who are parading as academics”.
John Buchanan and Brigid Van Wanrooy, of the University of Sydney’s Workplace Research Centre, have briefed lawyers, saying Mr Hockey defamed them when he implied their research was distorted.
“We are absolutely considering legal action,” Dr Buchanan told the Herald last night. “We have taken advice from a number of legal sources on the basis that he is accusing us of cooking up data.”
Can you really believe this about Hockey’s latest “solution” on the CPRS:
1. Defer it
2. Then free vote next year.
My apology to the donkey.
Awww, no The Drewster
He was the Skeleton Man of the sideshow – I’m disappointed.
It feels like the loony rights last stand. You can hear the desparation in Bolt and Jones. Go turnbull
Another excellent clinical analysis in this morning’s Piping Shrike blog entry “No Choice”
http://www.pipingshrike.com
Good morning, bluderoonies. It’s happy hour for Labor hacks here in our nation’s capital.
Crikey, Hockey’s cousin thinks Joe is not up to the leadership!
He is endorsing Turnbull!
ABC TV News!
Andrew: Alan Jones has been almost hyperventilating this morning!
The right wing shock jocks are desperately praying for an Abbott win!
confessions
OoooWaaaaaah, ‘fessions, you forgot Bolta, Shock Jocks, RW spambots and whoever is/are pulling the religious RW L-NP powerbrokers’ strings!
John Hewson just said that the world economy will dive in the second half of 2010. If so, there is more reason for a DD if the CPRS is delayed.
Is Hockey’s cousin anyone of note?
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/liberal-senators-to-support-ets/story-e6frgczf-1225805591281
Evan, so am i
Finns, if that is right, then Minchin has got to him!
Hockey is a total Dill-brain!
Yay, ABC1 live into WA
Not sure, but the ABC seems to think so!
People from Sydney would know!
Where did Cassidy get that suit from?
It’s Antony Green!
What a sight!
Scorpio, Minchin just said free vote is a no no. Poor Joe.
This could end up being a big fizzer as Turnbull wins the day and the TS bill will be passed.
He’s right. It’s just weak, like his pathetic tweet. As Grattan said today, it’s a cop-out.
But those people argue for no CPRS at all. Liberal MPs arguing for delay of the vote only ever seem to frame their case in terms of Rudd, Copenhagen, Rudd’s “ego”, “strutting the world stage” and so on. It’s apparent they have no real arguments against voting for the CPRS except for a hatred of Rudd.
Crabby Annabel sounds like a Western Suburbs (WA) Matron.
Or is it Rudd’s SUCCESS?
BB
This has been one of the most bizarre things for me. The OO campaigns against AGW for two years and then when the ETS is hanging in the balance it’s time to pass it and the deniers are finally called deniers.
That’s a pretty severe haircut Turnbull’s suffered. Sleek as a seal.
It would be so funny if the spill motion gets up, but ultimately Turnbull is re-elected again.
At this point I am thinking that the Liberal right were just hoping to use Hockey to split the Turnbull voters and then get Abbott up, but if they can’t get Hockey to look credible about the ETS then the tactic will fail and Hockey’s bid would collapse. That would leave it back to Turnbull vs Abbott with Turnbull winning if those in favour of the ETS are in the majority. If the Anti-ETS group are in the majority then Abbott will win anyway.
Either Way Hockey looks weak. At best he winds up a pro-ETS leader leading an anti-ETS party, with his leadership only gained by a compromise of his own views.
‘Fess, Psephos. Y’r drooling at the thought of Abbott & Dutton …… and the DD election if they get the leadership.
Haven’t felt the urge to reread Tom Truman’s Catholic Action and Politics ? Just to remind yourself how the other side feels? Helping ALPers who do them nasty injuries rolling in the aisles?
Must send OH out for some sour lemons. I was brought up never to scoff at other’s misfortune!
See, they consider publishing a heap of denialist articles as The Australian participating in the debate.
Banarby just stabbed Sloppy. He said no defer, a free vote CPRS will go through. Quote: “What a way to start your leadership, nuttiness and indecisiveness. It’s bizarre to have the free vote”. Herr Doktor, i hope Labor Media Unit is listening.
OMG, Sloppy has even more knives on his back than Turnbull
Barnyard is just losing the last of his marbles!
There are going to be a lot of votes if a spill gets up
1. Spill?
2. Leader
3. Deputy Leader
4. Senate Leader
5. Other crappy positions
And then will they take a vote on the ETS?
You can’t lose marbles if you didn’t have any to start with BK !
http://www.smh.com.au/national/joe-hockey-firms-as-favourite-20091201-k1mc.html
Dio
I pointed out their odd change of heart two days ago. I have two possible conclusions – they never believed their own anti-CC rubbish in the first place and were just lobbying on behalf of Uncle Rupert’s financial interests or they really do hate the ETS, but hate Labor more. Now that they realise an anti-ETS position is political suicide for the Liberals they are trying to turn around the very nutbars they have primed with nonsense for years and set loose within Liberal ranks.
It would absolutely destroy Barnyard if Labor said they would also allow a conscience vote.
Diog, are you still recruiting for PB wRONg Hall of Fame?
Finns
With the Hockey twitter fiasco combined with his “conscience” vote on a policy and scientific issue, Hockey deserves the knives in his back. He is dead already as a leader.
Grahame Morris just said that even if Abbott gets up, the Magnificent 7 might cross the floor and vote for CPRS.
Diog, you can be rightly wRONg sometimes
Only the Liberal Senators vote for the Senate leader and deputy leader.
That will be very far from a fizzer, since last Friday most Labor people were resigned to the bill going down. It will be a brilliant outcome for Rudd, for Australia and for Copenhagen, and I will be happy to give Turnbull a big share of the credit for it.
Which would be the best result for Labor.
Chris Toolman says that the final ballot will be Abbott V Hockey, and that there are only a few votes in it either way.
How the hell will that settle this if they are so closely divided?
Leadership challenges will always be more of a ballsup under the Liberals!
At least Labor know how to organise their leadership changes properly!
The only solution is the Liberals splitting into 2 parties; moderates, and arch conservatives!
If Abbott wins, the moderates will walk out anyway!
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/liberal-partyroom-meeting-starts-20091201-k1hs.html
Possum has a post up for the tragics.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/12/01/spillwatch-spill-day/
Hewson is convinced that if CPRS is delayed, there will be a DD, especially he expects the world economy to dive 2nd half 2010.
What happens when the Local Rag has a kid-pic of you, then you get to be newsworthy!
http://www.thechronicle.com.au/story/2009/12/01/member-on-outer-in-liberal-stoush/
This is a win-win now.
If Hockey wins, the ETS gets up and the Libs have a pathetic leader with wafer-thin support, mainly due to his being neither Turnbull nor Abbott.
If Abbott wins, the ETS might still pass and the Libs get totally wiped at the next election with the far Right blamed and emasculated.
It’s all good. I can’t see a bad outcome.
Pass the popcorn! (which might be a good name for Gusface’s book if he goes for a comic flavour)
julie_posetti
Wow @cuhlmann’s on fire on ABC1′s #spill special: a source from the Right says if the Hard Right’s Abbott gets up, a formal #split may occur 1 minute ago from web ]
Abbott getting up is frightening, Hockey is a Dill (just because he was conned into standing). The only choice is Turnbull. Will the Libs put aside their hatred for Rudd and do the right thing?
Bonehead Gilbert says it’s “freezing” in Canberra. It’s 13 degrees.
OzPol @ 1470,
What’s the MOE for a sample size of 31?!
Fiona Nash, National Senator. “We have been inundated with calls, the Australian people are saying we don’t want an ETS. You would have to have your head in a mountain of sand.”. They are being canvased to stand candidates in Bradfield. That last comment just shows how completely unpolitical these nutbars are.
Beware: Humphries said that he would vote with the party line even though given the choice he would vote for the ETS. If Abbott gets in he may just get his way with the Senate.
Memo to the Nats: there are no farmers in Bradfield!
Barry Cassidy worried that this may take so long that Annabel Crabb goes into labor.
Cassidy on Their ABC is pushing hard that next election will fought hard on the campaign that ETS is like the GST, a brand new big tax.
Macca said that some of the “outrage” was manufactured, presumably by a PR firm and climate deniers groups.
Hewson just said there is no better time for Turnbull to start the Third Force, a Progressive Party. Something that i have been saying.
A view to a kill.. definitely
Of course, they are your supporters.
Every time Speers asks Hewson a question, he makes a policy speech – he’s still a frustrated politician.
Relying on inundations of the dwindling party faithful to chart their course indicates that the Libs are in a vortex heading down the drain.
This is actually more exciting than the 2007 poll !!
The Nats are on the end of a ‘Andrew Bolt’ style flaming effort,. We don’t really need to see a new party for there to be a split. The wingnuts of the National Party just need to end the COALlusion and run across the country. They have always wanted to come out of their ‘Country party past.” This is there moment. At the cost of the Liberal Party they can gain real growth, along with the ALP and of course the Greens. What a great outcome.
I found that live stream from the Liberal Partyroom:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJMxGFco57Y
If Hockey was “smart” enough. He would have resist the seduction and just stays put until the next election.
They didn’t feel that way in 1998-9 with the GST legislation when a majority of the population (around80%) were against the GST.
Bring back Hewson, bringback Hewson…..Turnbull and hewson party
Chris Uhlman says the party could become “a political billabong” if Abbott wins. Lol!
Inner Westie #1414
I too am bemused by the descriptions of Hockey as an affable, cuddly bear of a man. In over 30 years in the Commonwealth Public Service, under scores of Federal Ministers, I can honestly say that Hockey was the rudest, most abusive and hysterical minister I had the misfortune to work for.
As a Labor man, I say: GO MAD MONK!
most exciting day in politics for me
I think Hockey will win it against Abbott by about 5 votes.
If you call watching a train wreck exciting!
evan.. what Im crossing my fingers about is if hockey has the balls to stand firm and insist on a conscience vote.
Gerard Henderson, on ABC radio sounding like an apologist for the Deniers.’No on could have seen this outcome.” These commentators need to accept that they have been pushing for this outcome. They can now reap there bitter harvest. Reminds me of that old saying. “Beware what you wish for, you may recieve it.”
Abbott shouldn’t have worn the red speedos on the weekend, that cost him a few votes?
Pretty Boy Van just said the Hockey Solution has crashed and crumbled.
Hockey wins CPRS getsup Abbott nd the Whakaloons leave and form ow party in coalition with the Nationals. That’s what will happen….so says Centaur009
Hockey would have to be the stupidest man in recent Australian political history, with the possible exception of Mark Latham. He has screwed himself and his party.
I dunno.. the train wreck in “2012″ where it flies across a volcanic chasm.. wasn’t too bad.. or slow either
Grech worked in his office to, didnt he?
Herr doktor,
Antony Green just mentioned a likely narrowing in the election campaign to come – General Wenck!!! General Wenck!!!
Psephos
Hockey showed he was a complete moron when he jumped into the Grech fiasco for no apparent reason.
DaveM
Sorry Dave, I’m a planning & policy wonk (retired) not a stats one.
But I’d imaging that, given that particular Local Rag & its distribution area, I’d say it’s almost entirely from voters far right of Minchin, Abbott & Barnaby, as in LoR, La Rouche, AOG, CoC, etc.
Possum points out that the final vote could be a 42 – 42 tie.
Who cares who wins – they are artichoked.
Urk I’ve been kissed by a wet cetacean.
Yeah, Green said that Labor may not make it to 56 in the actual election.. lol
Cassidy still pushing the massive tax line. Cassidy has not forgiven Rudd for not appearing on the Insiders.
I suppose that once the spill motion succeeds the ban on mobile phones is automatically void, though they would be breaking the rule to go into the room with one in the first place. Tony Eastley says there are no leaks at all.
If its a 42-42 tie.. are they allowed to resolve it with russian roulette?
So it’s “Bash Rudd” day on the ABC: what a surprise!
Maybe they’ll ring Fran Bailey for a casting vote.
Seriously there will be a third party out of this whatever the outcome………this senario has played out time and time again CLP, DLP, protectionists etc etc, Democrats, one nation etc etc etc
Finns @ 1520 – if they got rid of Akkerman from Insiders he’d be on in a New York minute.
Although the Ruddster is officially launching ABC3 on Friday Afternoon!
What? Somylay leaves the partryoom so the ABC cuts away to a back story on Turnbull.
Herr Doktor, your wet dreams have come true.
Seriously, there won’t be.
Honestly, the drama queens who come on here week in week out who reckon a new political party will happen…
Abbott by 1. my wet dream comes true
Shineybum @1496
Flawed political character assessments have a way of perpetuating themselves, especially among the sometimes-insular Canberra press gallery.
In the case of Hockey, the affable persona fits very neatly with the superficial, physical, characteristics of the man…
Wow 42-41 to Abbott.
ABBOTT!!!!????????????????????????
WORST POSSIBLE OUTCOME
Well done Libs
42-41 to Abbott
LOL! ABBOTTT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
41 – 41. They are still divided.
oh dear
TONY ABBOTT YESSSSSSSS
42-41 yesss
Hockey out in the first round. The war is on again. Donkeys.
oops 42-41
Ha ha Mad monk.
Great. Bring it on !!
Especially if he’s wearing his red swimmers for you!
42-41 Abbott
Great basis for stability
WOW 42/41 for Abbott. Bite those lemons, non-LNPers
Abbott. Sh1t!!!!!
And Julie B keeps her job!
Totally disgusted.
This is unvelieveable – I cannot believe they’ve done this to themselves.
4 more terms! 4 more terms!
And Mesma will help to hold it all together
All I can say is:
Well, Turnbull might just hang around and come back in a few weeks when Abbott stuffs up completely.
The Libs are split in half
Of course, she’s such a “unifying figure”.
It’s time for the Magnificent 7 to stand up and be counted.
Fran Bailey was absent. WTF
What a gift for the Labor Party…..Mad Monk and mesma as the deputy
So someone didn’t vote?
And now I hope 7 moderate Senators cross the floor anyway which will be a massive cherry on the cake.
I do hope the moderates show some bottle, cross the floor, vote for the ETS!
If I was Gillard/Albo/Labor senate leadership, I’d be doing a deal with the moderate Liberal senators immediately.
“Shooting themselves in the feet” OH just said.
Geez, won’t that settle Libs’ divisions!
I wonder whether Coalition Senators will be missing in action when the Senate vote is taken.
Sit back and contemplate: Abbott 42 Turnbull 41.
Let them reap what they sow.
Now what happens to the ETS. Will the seven senators cross the floor?
Senate in 5 minutes – come on Penny!
Bring on the political billabong! LOL!!
And Radio Liberal are delighted.
Jesus, you think you’ve seen it all over the years, but this tops everything.
Troeth apparently said this morning she would vote for the ETS come what may. But she has nothing to lose. It’s a much bigger ask for young Senators like Birmingham.
“The worst of all possible worlds … after the election the prospect of becoming a political billabong’ ~Chris Uhlmann
Turnball 26
First round
Hockey 23
Abbott 35
Equals 84
second round
Turnball 41
Abbott 42
equals 83
They can’t even run a leadership ballot
A side issue raised on our ABC:
The numbers don’t add up.
A total of 84 voted in the first ballot.
83 voted in the second.
Hockey deserves to eat his own vomit. he should retire and enjoy his young family.
So about 49 people back Turnbull or Hockey and 35 Abbott – same as the spill vote last time. So that many think CPRS should be passed or their should be a free vote. What chance of Abbott squashing the CPRS supporters?
yes.. but what about the ets?
Have they forgotten Abbott’s appalling performance in the last election? He’s a vote-loser.
They have just elected the guy that Nielsen and Newspoll said is their least popular leader!
I was wRONg
tho the closeness suggest that this aint the end
Malcolm missed by one, tho he tried darn hard
Democracy is the real loser
(off for a cry,lie down and a few bex and then a biscuit)
Hockey had the leadership on a plate, and he blew it with own stupidity.
Cassidy and Toolman talking up the ETS Tax Bogeyman.
Fagin will be $2400 richer if Monk hangs on ’till election.
Wrote this Sept last year:
http://www.waggaguide.com.au/?id=malcolminamuddle
No one listened. My own father laughed in my face.
Abbott as leader represents a very narrow church of a party indeed.
This is the end of the Libs for sure
Someone must’ve abstained, i.e. voted for no one.
What chance the Greens in Higgins now.
Prediction 50-50%
Abbott is a disaster in that type of electorate.
Yes, Ray Hadley and Steve Price are wetting themselves with excitement!
So do you think he should’ve said he would delay the vote until Feb, even if he ultimately told his party in Feb to vote for it?
Or he should’ve unveilved the “everyone gets a conscience vote” in Feb, and dared the party to have ANOTHER leadership ballot.
Malcolm Turnbull will be the PM one day, another 12 years, if he has the patience.
Ets will be squashed….third party to emerge…..floor crossing by 1 o 2 abstainers 1 or 2
Fran Bailey wasn’t there second round according to RileyReporter via Twitter:
RileyReporter: Fran Baily was not at teh vote #spill. Would she have voted for Turnbull or Abbott? What would have hapened if there was a tie? #spill
PVO is right to say that Turnbull comes out of this quite well – maybe he thinks he can come back if (when) Abbott falls apart.
Maybe Hockey abstained in the second round?
Fran Bailey didn’t vote? Couldn’t they wake her up?
The Age this morning said Bailey is ill and wasn’t there.
Turnbull put up a good show in spite of all predictions.
Now all the deniers, “skeptics”, Opus Dei types, social conservatives, hayseeds and happy clappys get their wish. Just how palatable is their version of the world to the general public?
Ah… Sloppy. Never misses and opportunity to miss an opportunity
Diogenes
Yes, now the question is indeed will the necessary 7 Libs in the Senate cross the floor on the ETS bill? I’d say with such a close leadership vote, and a high degree of ‘unacceptance’ likely amongst the moderates, the answer is almost certainly yes. What does Abbott do then?
Samantha Maiden says one of the votes was informal:
Fagin, g’day Sir! How’s Wagga?
Someone reminded me of your bet on the other board last night!
You’re a genius!
Apparently Fran abstained.
Gary Humphries said on Lateline last night that he would support the Party policy in the Senate. I might be taking this out of context, but he seemed to be implying “even if the policy is to vote against the ETS”.
We will see soon enough.
Mesma voted for Abbott.
And Bishop remains deputy! After all of this they couldn’t even get rid of her!
Bishop knifed her own leader and voted him out. What a show of support!
Evan – ditto.
Bailey was NOT THERE.
Abbott didn’t sound too chirpy last night at the thought of him winning and the ETS still passing.
What a dream outcome.
Well well, I suppose we have to re-write “teh narrative” where Bishop is the great surivor! the on constant across 3 leaders!
This will be the best missed opportunity Hockey ever had. He’s lucky.
My next question would be: will the moderates be welcome in Abbott’s shadow cabinet?
The really scary thought: nutjobs like Jensen will be promoted!
Haha, listen to Barrie’s tone of voice, he can’t believe this at all.
Mind you, neither can I
If Toeth + one other replace Steve + Nick what sort of pressure does that put the Greens under?
Who said this? Another one for the PB wRONg Hall of Fame
Abbott will be the biggest disaster since the leyland p76.
Game on in Higgins Now……woo hooooo!!!!!!!!! Go the mad Green…..How awesome
She might have done a proxy vote for a spill but not the leadership because she couldn’t know what the leadership battle would be.
“I will win on Tuesday.”
“I don’t bear grudges … I am not a hater.”
“If Nick Minchin wins this battle he condemns our party to irrelevance.”
The first statement, over-shoot. The second statement, under-shoot. The third statement, right on target…
The ETS will pass, the Liberal will denie being part of it now, under Abbott.
The Liberals are hoping for shambles at Copenhagen and then the cost of the ETS to hit and that will gove them government in 2014.
Interesting plan
Best possible result for Labor.
Ultimately good result for Hockey – lives to fight another day. Brilliant for Turnbull, almost Lazarus-like. Looks like a good result for Abbott, but unfortunately he gets to ride kamikaze pilot for his party.
We now have an Abbot & a Bishop runing the Libs… AND THEY STILL AINT GOT A PRAYER!
Fagin,
Fagin will be $2400 richer if Monk hangs on ’till election.
Wrote this Sept last year:
The election could come rapidly towards Abbott. How tempting, then on the other hand, they keep on getting worse, who knows what will happen, the longer they are not given a reality check at the voting booths the better, Maybe feb 2011 could be the best option,. They could be completely exhausted and in complete meltdown by then.
This means that the Greens have the BOP after the next election.
Spill motion must have had 2 informal votes.
Would R1 84 have included Bailey, who then abstained from R2?
What mayhem. What a mandate for MM!!!!
Finns
How many people here picked Abbott to win? I don’t think a single one.
FAke Howard:
A nightmare for Paul Fletcher and Kelly O’Dwyer, they’ll have to campaign with a climate change sceptic in green friendly electorates.
The Mad Uncle has the Mad Nephew as his leader. they deserve each other.
Probably Hockey voted for Hockey in the second ballot.
Diog they were saying last night that Turnbull Hockey support would be split…and Abbott could get up but yopu’re right most said Hockey V abbott, Hockey wins
I think the loony right is far too convinced of its own ability to fool people. In a way this will be good because the climate deniers are going to be in the center spotlight as they go down.
None of us believed the Liberals could be that stupid.
I wonder if they will be able to run a concerted and consistent line against the ETS, or will they just split between people campaigning against the ETS and others who campaign against the existence of climate change?
If they try to sell those two different messages then they are stuffed.
Diog,
They have an abbott and a bishop – what they need is a deacon, but Affable Alfred has left the building.
I was wRONg. I thought Abbott had no hope.
Game on in Higgins- irrelevant question- Why does the DLP logo look like Dunlop Tyres? I got a flyer from Mullholand Today
How’s this bloke on ABC now saying Rudd’s vote is “popular but soft”. Yeah, well it’s about to firm right up.
I don’t know if I will be up to stomach watching those on the right the Liberal party now calling for loyalty and adherence to the will of the party room.
Barnaby says that today’s cool morning in Canberra proves global warming doesn’t exist.
Andrews saying
Dream on. A few minutes ago they were split right down the middle. When people mull all this over attitudes will harden not mellow.
Mad Monk ! what a chrissy present for St Kevin and labor.
Ho ho ho!
Sam Maiden: A clear majority 54 29 voted to oppose ETS in senate.
Of the 54, 12 voted for Turnbull over Abbott in R2???????????????????
So, these 12 are pro-ETS but respect Abbott’s mandate, I guess.
How does that work for y’all?!!
All of you who want to enter the PB wRONg Hall of Fame to Join Diog and Speers, please line up here
This is the new face of The Nationals.
If the Greens had found an acceptable candidate for Higgins they might have a chance of an upset now, but the Vic Greens always run feral extremists and sabotage their own chances.
I reckon Turnbull will hang on for at least a while. He’d be thinking, surely Abbott can produce a terminal stuff-up in the next 2-3 months?
Barnaby just about having a fit in the Senate.
Cute finns, cute
Finns
Your wet dreams do not equate to you making a prediction.
Andrews on Fox being all magnanimous and pious – he comes my breakfast!
Turnbull will be laughing his guts out! This is far better than Hockey getting up!
After Saturday, there will be two more votes for Turnbull in the next spill which will be soon!
Paul Fletcher and Kelly O’Dwyer will be in the Parliament and will surely vote for Malcy in the next spill and the split left will have gathered their senses and realised what they have done!
My prediction for the next spill, Turnbull by at least 20 votes over Abbott!
You heard it here first!
Oh Glory Day!
The best possible result for everyone except the Libs!
Remember remember the first of December!!!
Right, who’s for the pub?
Isn’t it great that a century after the non-Labor parties merge in to the Deakinite Liberal Party, that they’re now in the position that they are, with Abbott taking over.
Dyno @1610 – you’re so right re Hockey. Best thing that could have happened to him.
Who will MM appoint shadow treasurer – any guesses?
The moderate Liberals, like the Government, just need to sit back and watch Abbott and the right self-destruct.
I feel very sorry for O’Dwyer and Fletcher. What a mess they’ve signed up to join!
Well those Liberal moderate Senators should cross the floor before Abbott decides on his shadow ministry.
The moderates have nothing to lose, they are now on the outer! The senators should do the decent thing, show some balls, and cross the floor!
What will Turnball and Hockey do now?
Hockey actually is the biggest loser of the lot, he got into bed with Minchin and he was stabbed in the back! Serves him right actually!
Turnball can probably hang around on the backbench for a few months, watch this lot implode, and then return on his white charger to save them.
Fran Bailey was not there and two MPs are to be elected (Bradfield and Higgins) and an informal vote.
Herr Doktor, Labor should start pointing out that Abbott leadership is not legitimate
Barnaby – “This side of the chamber will be as one.”
Phespos wrote,
“If the Greens had found an acceptable candidate for Higgins they might have a chance of an upset now, but the Vic Greens always run feral extremists and sabotage their own chances.”
Hello the Libs just elected Tony Abbott. Nutbar
That’s the same crap he spewed out the day after the ETS vote.
Bloody good point Scorp
You might be right, but malcolm pulled out all stops to try to win this ballot.
The closeness does not bode well for abbott and the two new libs certainly will change the dynamic again.
I Think the last chapter is still to be written
Their ABC is really promoting the tax crap.
It proves too that enough of these Liberals were blackmailed into voting for Abbott, because of the anti-ETS campaign whipped up by talkback radio!
My dreams are always rational and predictive
MT on at 10:25, lets see what he has to say!
Bob, I am in such a good mood this morning that I feel benevolent even towards you. I agree with your 1652. The Deakinites would never have let a Papist lead them.
Now Turnbull can relax. Providing the media with a detailed response to the Godwin Grech senate report will be a doddle in comparison to the seppuku* he has just endured.
Seppuku (???, “stomach-cutting”) is a form of Japanese ritual suicide by disembowelment. Seppuku was originally reserved only for samurai. Part of the samurai honor code, seppuku was used voluntarily by samurai to die with honor rather than fall into the hands of their enemies, as a form of capital punishment for samurai who have committed serious offenses, and for reasons that shamed them. Seppuku is performed by plunging a sword into the abdomen and moving the sword left to right in a slicing motion. The practice of committing seppuku at the death of one’s master, known as oibara (?? or ???, the kun’yomi or Japanese reading) or tsuifuku (??, the on’yomi or Chinese reading), follows a similar ritual.
Graham Morris talking Andrews up :
Does this gift never stop giving.
Ho ho ho
I actually think the Hockey “no policy” platform would have been a (slightly) bigger long-term problem for the Liberal party than this is.
As it is, Abbott is going to be humiliated some time in the next year, either at a general election, or with horrible polls leading to yet another spill. At last that’s putting the blame where it belongs for the current disastrous state of the party.
If we’d had Hockey, on a platform of “we don’t know what to think about the ETS”, the fighting would have continued ad nauseam, and someone who could still be a decent leader in 5-10 years would have been spat up and chewed up by Labor and the media, probably never to recover.
Remember that we had to have the debacle of Downer in order to make the Party realise that the obvious thing to do was have Howard back as Leader.
Still, it’s a painful time in prospect.
For the Liberals, this is the only chance they have of winning the next 2 election
The ETS killing off our cash cows – the Aluminium and Coal industry, which has supported our economy the last 8-10 years -> unemployment
And the ETS on energy to bit
They will no longer blame the Liberals
Bring back Bronnie at the same time! And Wilson Tuckey!
You’d think there’s no place for Turnball, Chainsaw, Pyne, Hunt and maybe Hockey in the new administration, but who knows?
Does Abbott have the guts to kill the CPRS bill today?
Gillard would love to be the one to take the trip to the GG…
I might point out that Turnbull would have won this if he hadn’t stuffed up Grech so Grech is responsible for the ETS not passing. It’s the butterfly effect.
Musrum
Abbott should let Rudd’s ETS pass
0 chance an election would be called now. An election in late December? Not going to happen.
He’ll definitely offer Hockey a spot, and probably Pyne I’d say. Not sure about the other moderates.
OMG
Thunk
The cool aid is has now been mixed !
Coalition members please form an orderly queue and drink it down !
Dyno: You’re probably correct, Abbott can’t stack the entire front bench with right wingers, he’d need some semblance of appealing to moderates.
I doubt though that Chainsaw will put his hand up, I bet he goes to the backbench with Turnball.
I can’t believe we still have journalists in this country that think you win elections by appealing to your base.
Hockey is possibly going to go to the backbench and smoke Abbott out.
Penny is giving it to Joyce in the Senate!
Despite the Lathamesque lurch toward Abbott, I’m making the call of a brief Honeymoon for the “remarried” Nats/Lib Coalition with the next Newspoll showing Labor’s 2PP lead reduced to 53/47.
Miranda, you sexy thang
Yeah, I guess. Can’t have the voters hot and bothered at the polling booths on a Climate Change election…
HA HA
Oh well, at least they’ve guaranteed a huge 40 seats next time, that’s a great springboard to rebuild the party from.
Turnbull not resigning from Wentworth.
MT not resigning immediately, but thinking about whether will contest next election.
And he’s going to the back bench “assuming that the parliament comes back” – nice line
Turnball going to the backbench!
Turnbull will not resign and will go to the backbench.
There’s Abbott’s first mistake.
LOL! Turnbull reiterates that the amended CPRS should be passed!
Remember, Janet and friends were only put on the ABC board to dust the furniture
JB for Deputy?
Very appropriate – the new team will have their back’s to him.
He will have newly sharpened knives at the ready.
Unfinished business.
Correct
Turnbull:
Of course Turnbull said that sarcastically, becuase the party didn’t respect his guidance last Tuesday.
I have been missing these updates dario.
Ahh the woodside letter is brought up
For the South Aussies, this is going to be BIG. To be accredited to work, all the surgeons in the unit need to sign a form to say they will supervise the trainee. So how did they sign the forms if they were “unaware of the arrangement”. Did they sign the forms at all?
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26423455-5006301,00.html
So, do we now give Clive Hamilton a decent chance of winning Higgins?
Bradfield is too blue ribbon Liberal safe for Fletcher to be in any trouble, I’d assume.
LOL! Bob Ellis just wanders into shot.
Can i write NO on my ballot paper this Saturday Bradfield by election?
And I’m off to bed, see you in thge afternoon.
Skynews reporting that the informal vote had one word on the ballot: “NO”.
Could this vote have been Joe Hockey’s, I wonder?
But now some moderate Liberal voters are going to vote against the Liberals because they don’t like Abbott. Even if 5% of Liberal voters do that at the next election the Liberals will lose a dozen seats.
Finns, I’m next door to you, in Berowra!
I’d dearly love to vote next Saturday, I’d take great pleasure in putting the Liberals last.
BTW How’s Miss Pole Dancer doing with her campaign?
Add another square with Malcolm Turnbull next to it and put your #1 there.
The news has just broken in my office, all the women are groaning and saying “oh my god I can’t believe it”…..ooh this will be good.
I am going to cross out Liberal and put Loser in Higgins but vote formaly for mad Clive
They took the whole “If you don’t know vote no” thing to literally.
I hope Clive doesn’t get up
He’s a self-promoting nutter who thinks the net can/should be censored.
So what will Abbott do to repackage himself as a moderate?
Are you sure that’s a formal vote?
Sure is Triton, all the squares will be numbered 1 to 10
More shots of him in his speedos?
ShowsOn @1716, He’ll do what the conservatives are good at. Lie. Dissemble. Distort.
So much to enjoy, but I think if it were me I’d dance to the election with:
‘jokers to the left of me, clowns to the right and here we are stuck in the middle without a CPRS’.
I think the Greens strategy needed a bad CPRS to ‘improve’. Being stuck without one at all leaves them with the ‘no scheme is better than that scheme’ which I don’t think will be so effective.
frontal lobotomy?
Yes that’s a formal vote as long as all candidates are numbered and the voter doesn’t put their name on the ballot.
I could write mad goat F#$%@er and it will still be formal…It will give the scrutineers a good laugh I hope
http://www.smh.com.au/national/shock-result-as-abbott-wins-liberal-leadership-by-one-vote–ets-dead-20091201-k1uz.html
But will 7 Lib Senators cross the floor…
Turnbull is still running for Leader. That’s my take on his press conference.
He’s now got a couple of months to relax and re-charge the batteries, while Tony deals with all the crap that Labor’s about to throw at them.
Should be interesting.
We have to number 1 to 22 in Bradfield!
I can’t wait …
http://www.smh.com.au/national/shock-result-as-abbott-wins-liberal-leadership-by-one-vote–ets-dead-20091201-k1uz.html
The SMH says the ETS is dead because of the 54-29 secret ballot in the party room, but I’m not so sure that there won’t be at least 7 who see the CPRS legislation as important enough to cross the floor over. There must be some Lib moderates who see the elevation of Abbott as the virtual end of the party. If there are any, for them passing the CPRS bill may be of greater importance than party discipline in the midst of the current turmoil, after a margin of just one vote on the leadership. I fervently hope so, anyway.
Immortality for Mad Monk in his red cossie, classic, just ask Peter Denman.
The irony of Morris cautioning Liberal MPs against going against the leader and partyroom. Pity the rightwingers couldn’t abide that advice.
Who will be the new environment/climate change spokesperson?
Dennis Jensen?
Don’t laugh, it may happen!
The next Newspoll will be a belter. If support for the Libs dies as women esp flee Tony Abbott it will be on again.
This ain’t over by a long shot.
The guy from Newspoll said yesterday that the high 50s for Labor is effectively a ceiling because beyond that are the rusted-on conservative voters.
Listening to Abbott, I suspect ETS wont be the only DD trigger; very Whitlamesque indeed!
OMG! Abbott just reiterated Hockeynomics, that all the interest rate rises from now on were caused by the Government!
Abbott is a shocker of a speaker
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26424832-5006301,00.html
Ahh Mark Kenny, Liberal tool extraordinaire.
Here’s the turncoat, twisting and turning
The claim is 1 Turnbull supporter voted “No”:
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/tony-abbott-to-stand-against-joe-hockey-malcolm-turnbull-for-liberal-leadership/story-e6frf7jo-1225805513782
If that person voted Turnbull, it would’ve been 42 – 42. WHAT THE HELL would’ve they done then!?
Held another spill and rated for Fran Bailey? Alloed Newlson and Costello back to vote?
Just called up Howard and asked him who should lead?
‘Goetze” Abbott – LOL
He must be like that if both Pell and Minchin have their arms up his nether regions!!
Julie Bishop looks like the cat who ate the budgie.
Labor managed a 63-37 Newspoll with Rudd on 73% PPM when the apology happened.
And the biggest loser from today is… JOE HOCKEY
Sorry Joe, you got played by the puppeteer Minchin, and he used you like the bumbling fool you are. Should have bided your time Joe instead of going in limp-wristed. Costello mkII.
Mesma is beyond contempt. She should stay on the couch.
Quick, whats the papal position on climate change?
Incredible turn of events in Australian Mad Men. Glued to set. Please let there be more episodes.
Looking forward to a ALP-Green negotiated CPRS deal after 2010. Predict ALP v Green contests in all inner cities for the first, but not the last time.
From looking at the News blogs, there are plenty of Lib voters who won’t vote for Abbott. It hasn’t gone down well at all.
A journalist should just ask him if he believes climate change is human induced.
And everyone was saying that Tony’s “beefcake” photo on the weekend was his doom. Libs seems to go in for that sort of porn.
Well, just picture this: Tony Abbott giving his pitch to become prime minister at the Liberal Party election launch.
While this site was temporarily out of action, I wandered over to News Ltd/Liberals.com.au. Plenty of delusional fruitcakes over there, it’s the greatest event in the history of mankind etc.
Someone should ask Mad Monk if he believes that CC is man made.
Nah, Abbott did nothing for me in that department!
Debnam actually looked better in his sluggos.
Abbott just said that the Howard government created 2 million new jobs.
The Hawke / Keating governments created 2.2 million new jobs.
“The phrase WorkChoices is dead” – just the phrase, not the policy! Thanks, Tony.
Abbott ahh– ahh ahh every second word!
Workchoices – awesome! Out it comes…
Well, Bishop makes him seem OKish…maybe that is her role?
Abbott is finding the going hard allready
He’s already in trouble.
Julie Bishop is the ‘skanky ho’ of the Liberal Party. Is there anyone she will not support if it means she gets to keep the deputyship?
Abbott has just returned us to workchoices.
Interesting that we haven’t heard from Joe yet!
Abbott wouldn’t have won this contest if it was held next week.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/12/01/abbott-the-numbers-point-to-grief/
It’s probably the worst possible outcome for the Liberal Party possible.
New thread.