Higgins and Bradfield by-elections live
Tuesday. 3726 postals from Bradfield, massively favouring the Liberals (75.4-24.6 on 2PP).
Sunday (9pm). Turnout on ordinary votes was 88.8% of the 2007 election in Higgins and 95.9% in Bradfield, compared with 89.3% at the Mayo by-election, 93.2% in Lyne and 89.4% in Gippsland. So it was actually quite high in Bradfield and only slightly below par in Higgins. Part of the reason in Higgins might be that it’s not a growth area. We could equally get a high number of pre-polls and postals bringing the number closer to average. I suspect we’ve seen half the pre-polls counted so far (the rest should come in quite quickly) and a third of the postals (which should dribble in over the next week).
Sunday (7.30pm). 2938 postals from Higgins added. Error in my Bradfield table corrected.
Sunday (4.30pm). 5841 pre-polls from Higgins and 3765 from Bradfield added. These have been particularly strong for Kelly O’Dwyer, increasing her two-party margin from 8.3 per cent to 9.1 per cent. Special hospital team (about 500 votes) also added from Bradfield; not yet available from Higgins.
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Categories: Federal By-Elections
6.49 comment. You cannot be serious about the AEC can you?
by Venise Alstergren on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:12 pm
Booth in:
Gardiner Church of Christ, 1542 Malvern Road, GLEN IRIS VIC 3146
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-14358-215.htm
That’s 3 Higgins booths now.
by bob1234 on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:12 pm
I continue to predict Lib retain for both seats.
by bob1234 on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:13 pm
I think it’s apparent that William and Antony are using the ALP 2pp in 2007 as the basis for their Green 2pp “swing”.
So if they can do it, why can’t we?
by David Walsh on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:13 pm
Antony:
Go on Adam… get stuck in to Antony for saying swing
by bob1234 on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:13 pm
Chatswood booth in.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-14357-108.htm
by bob1234 on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:14 pm
Armadale booth in.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-14358-215.htm
by bob1234 on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:15 pm
You can talk about a swing AWAY from the Libs…
by Grog on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:16 pm
If Antony is talking about a “swing” then he is incorrect. So there.
by Psephos on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:16 pm
Primary vote lost by the Liberals in the counted booths so far is a average of 7.785%.
by GhostWhoVotes on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:16 pm
These result actually don’t look bad for the Liberals at all.
by ltep on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:16 pm
More booths in in both seats.
by bob1234 on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:16 pm
And William’s tables should say CHANGE and not SWING.
by Psephos on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:17 pm
TPP in Bradfield now 58-41!!
by JimmyD on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:18 pm
Psephos – who cares.
by JimmyD on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:19 pm
There’s something screwy with the maths there, when the Lib candidate’s primary vote in Higgins is bigger than her 2PP! Some votes went missing when preferences were distributed?
by ncyc4fci1ds1k8n on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:19 pm
my faith in democracy has been strengthened by the fact that Peter Brohier, independent in Higgins, has only 8 votes out of a 4,277 counted so far. His campaign material made – no sense -
by Nick of McEwen on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:19 pm
HIggins starting to look okay for Libs
by stan speaker on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:19 pm
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-14358-215.htm
AEC’s projected 2PP after 5.5% counted is 58-42 to the Liberals.
by bob1234 on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:19 pm
What was it last election?
by Gary Bruce on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:20 pm
(for Higgins)
by bob1234 on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:20 pm
63-37.
by bob1234 on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:20 pm
Poosum from twitter:
by Grog on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:20 pm
Looks like Bob was right with Liberals retain – with swings to the greens.
by Boundary Man on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:20 pm
South Yarra is in and it looks like the swing against the Liberal isgetting smaller therefore i am calling Higgins for the Liberals.
by mexicanbeemer on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:20 pm
JimmyD, we at this blog are proud to be pedants.
by Psephos on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:21 pm
I predicted 53-47 to the Libs. Wonder how close i’ll get.
by bob1234 on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:22 pm
Bradfield has seen sense! 101 total votes for CDP, 98 for ASP!
by JimmyD on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:23 pm
Says it all
by vera on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:23 pm
Two of the ALP’s strongest booths are in and they appear to be moving towards O’Dwyer, this is actually turning out to be a poor result for the Greens.
by mexicanbeemer on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:23 pm
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-14358-215.htm
Higgins down to Lib 2PP 56.9% after 7.7% of 2pp votes counted (7 of 36 booths)
by bob1234 on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:23 pm
It looks as if the Libs might improve their primary vote in Higgins.
by ltep on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:24 pm
Abbott would probably be happier if the Greens won both seats – he could always have blamed the losses on the turmoil of last week. Now he has two new Turnbull supporters in his party room, plus Fran Bailey, which means Turnbull has a majority which he can use to undermine Abbott.
by Psephos on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:24 pm
I think Turnbull lost Julie Bishop’s vote
by Grog on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:26 pm
Both Sex Party candidates over 3% – come on 4%
by womble on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:26 pm
As I predicted, strong ALP voters have no interest in rewarding the upper-class dilettantes of the Greens for sabotaging a Labor government’s policies – although even I would not actually have voted Liberal! I’ll be interested to see the turnout and informality rates by booth when all the figures are in.
by Psephos on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:27 pm
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-14358-215.htm
Higgins Lib 2PP down to 55.26% after 8.84% 2pp count, 8 of 36 booths.
by bob1234 on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:27 pm
if we take out the ALP’s 31% the Green have only improved by 4% in Higgins
by mexicanbeemer on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:28 pm
The AEC’s projected 2PP in Higgins has closed to 55-45 Lib with 9% counted. I think we’ll end up with something between 52-48 and 53-47.
by Nick of McEwen on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:29 pm
from what i can tell and it be much better if we could see the actual booth number but there are at least four pro ALP booths in and with each we see the Liberal position improve.
by mexicanbeemer on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:30 pm
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-14358-215.htm
Higgins back to 57.48 Lib 2PP with 13%/10 of 36 booths.
by bob1234 on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:30 pm
A shame to see the Liberals holding up even after the repugnant Abbott was installed and they moved to the right in policy.
by ltep on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:32 pm
I suspect those renters in Toorak west may find an eviction notice in their mail-boxes come Monday
by mexicanbeemer on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:33 pm
It’s not your fault that the Greens are hopeless.
by ShowsOn on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:34 pm
This is Liberal heartland, what would you expect? Most would vote Lib out of habit.
by Gary Bruce on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:34 pm
And then the Roy Morgan 53-47 phone and 58-42 face to face… methinks the public haven’t really shifted their allegiances at all from the transition from Turnbull to Abbott…
by bob1234 on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:34 pm
Psephos is on the money. Liberals are actually getting swings to them in stronger Labor areas like Carnegie and (surprisingly) Windsor.
by MDMConnell on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:34 pm
Itep I cannot commetn on Bradfield but in Higgins the Liberals have a very good candidate who ran an extremely hard campaign quite possible the most visable in Higgins for a long time.
by mexicanbeemer on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:34 pm
It’ll be interesting to see the informal vote in Higgins.
I’d be voting informal rather than Greens if there wasn’t a Labor candidate. Voting informal wouldn’t have entered my mind 2 years ago but the Greens have cheesed me off big time over the ETS.
by Steve K on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:35 pm
My tables, may they rest in peace, used this to refer to the primary vote swing. I like the idea that “swing” in the Australian context should refer specifically to 2PP, if that’s what you mean – but the context in which I used it would be well understood by election watchers in Britain and Canada. If you believed my “swing” figure referred to 2PP, you were mistaken.
by William Bowe on Dec 5, 2009 at 7:36 pm