Courtesy of Peter Brent at Mumble comes the first heavy duty opinion poll of the Tony Abbott era. The two-party vote shows little change, with Labor’s lead down from 57-43 to 56-44. However, it seems rounding might have smoothed the result out a little: the Coalition is up three points on the primary vote to 38 per cent (the Liberals on 34 per cent have swallowed a point from the Nationals) while Labor is steady on 43 per cent. No approval ratings on Abbott were sought, but his 60-23 deficit on preferred prime minister compares with 65-14 against for Turnbull last week and 63-22 a fortnight previous. The poll offers further evidence that the popular notion that Abbott has a particular problem with women voters is a load of hooey.
UPDATE: Essential Research: 58-42, unchanged on last week. 21 per cent of respondents say the Abbott ascendancy makes them more likely to vote Liberal; 33 per cent say less. Lots of questions on leadership perceptions, almost all of it more favourable to Rudd than Abbott.
3,136 Comments
Great news, suck eggs Tories. I’m wide awake as it is just after 1pm here in the Midlands of the UK!
You’d have to go back 6 months to find a Preferred PM rating so low for Rudd.
Surely the Liberals will be worried that 62% of all voters (and 64% of women) think that Abbott will be about the same or worse than Turnbull.
Which was Turnbull pre-email gate.
aar aar well aherr arr well let me say arrr that i expected better! but let me tell you these polls go up and down arr
The above i image would be Abbott’s response
William wrote ;
BB you’re sounding a bit here like bob 1234567890.
Lets see where it gos
I didn’t think Labor’s primary vote would shift any but thought that the 2PP might go down a bit as well as the Greens vote!
A bit surprised at Abbott’s PPM figure but it is early days yet and he is entitled to a honeymoon. We can’t spoil tradition, can we?
But I don’t expect it to last too long even with the combined help of a good part of the MSM attempting to remake him!
Time for bed, night all!
Well I am a woman and Abbott gives me the creeps, no other way to describe it, same reaction from my sister-in-law so that makes a (statistically insignificant
) total of 2 of us!
Peter Young, no that was the late lamented David Widdup.
Peter Young was an Army major who resigned his commission in protest against the Vietnam War and ran for Labor against McMahon. He did quite well but didn’t win. He later became a military historian, and wrote a book about the German Army and the Nazi Party.
I was thinking it would be a point or two worse than this for the Coalition but only because previous polls always put Abbott as the least liked option as Opposition leader. His PPM at 60/23 whilst awful is a bit better than Turnbull’s was, MT wouldn’t like that.
Will require a few polls of course to gauge anything.
Least Tony will take something from it not leaping to 59/41 before Christmas.
Finding a negative out of 60 – 23 takes some doing.
Well according to Van Onselen, that’s the last Newspoll of the year. The next one won’t be until the day parliament resumes.
Well.
That’s okay.
And as just one woman, I remain unattracted.
Does anyone think that a really hot summer (which is likely) will make climate change an even more pressing issue?
I was hoping that a poll company would do a poll on climate change and the CPRS now, and then do exactly the same thing in early or mid Feb and see if the results differ.
Apologies, other girls, oops sorry, women.
Had not read yours.
If 60 – 23 is considered a bounce for Tony then heaven help him if he slumps.
Night, Scorpio and all.
Pleased Scorpio, that you have withdrawn your resignation.
It seems.
I’m watching a replay of Abbott’s first press conference on Order in the House. He said that the primary responsibility of government is to “run a good economy”. If that is how he is going to frame the election he won’t win, because the government stimulus protected the economy from recession, which of course was a policy that Abbott and the rest of the Coalition voted against.
Just thought I’d crow about having called this newspoll last Tuesday right after Abbott became leader.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/12/01/abbott-42-turnbull-41/all-comments/#comment-368055
Thomas Paine
I can’t see that poll so soon after a leadership change tells us anything. The word ‘Abbott’ has not registered on 99% of brains yet. We won’t be able to get a bead on the impact of Abbott until late February.
Unless he does a circus trick over the silly season. I suppose Abbott often blows up and bursts a condom over his head as a party trick – and to reinforce the Pope’s message about the evil of condoms – so maybe he’ll do that over Christmas in front of the cameras.
Eratosthanes
Well called. Such neck outstick always deserves credit.
LOL!
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/abbott-gamble-pays-off-for-libs/story-e6frgczf-1225807524519
I’m shocked that Shanner’s sub-editor didn’t put an exclamation mark at the end of the headline.
It should be Gambol not Gamble
http://www.smh.com.au/national/50b-bill-for-abbott-carbon-plan-20091206-kcyj.html
ShowsOn
Shanahan doesn’t hold back. This is a huge statisitic he cites:
Wow. Can’t do better than that
You sometimes have to feel sorry for the murdoch boys, they try so hard but look so pathetic at it, you feel like flicking them a few coins so they don’t have to keep demeaning themselves.
25
But is it better than all the Nelson polls put together?
Yeah, people forget that Nelson was favourite to win the next election.
Ross Gittins on why Abbott’s rejection of a carbon tax and ETS is stupid:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/abbott-cant-escape-climate-change-and-taxes-20091206-kcuw.html
As far as the moderates in the Liberal Party are concerned surely they cannot afford to let the ‘right’ be seen to be successful as it helps entrench the party over to the far right. But they cannot win. I gather the more they destablise the more moderates they lose at an election, unless they recover the reins quickly.
It would make sense for Turnbull and Co to regain LOTO as soon as they can and if possible vote through the ETS in Feb or May. But to do this they will have to do some heavy work 1. raising the profile and urgency of CC and the ETS and 2. undermining whatever Abbott’s position is.
So we may see the battle between right and centre played out over the next few months.
I would say the right will win if they have a respectable loss at the next election against current expectations.
Ross Gritten sums it up nicely doesn’t he
Psst Glen Milne, erm so called ‘Howard Battlers’ returning is actually Lib voters returning. Check out the 2PP son. Oh as for chadstone, they rather vote liberal than green son. Twat.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/a-sign-that-libs-have-got-it-right/story-e6frg75x-1225807506964
Thomas P @ 31
Yes, it’s very interesting. The moderates won’t just sit back and relax, because they couldn’t possibly believe the right can deliver government, surely. Turnbull said as much just before being deposed.
So, how do the mods get back control of the party? I don’t think they can wait around too long either, because if they do the right will stack and rort in all their seats and the structure etc.
And, yes, they need to strike as early as possible, which means as soon as Abbott starts to lose the plot. The best way to assist him to do so might be to send a couple of Senators across the floor to pass the CPRS bill in the next session. That’s why what the govt and the Greens and Mr X can come up in the meantime is very important.
Coonan’s rejection of a front bench position today is interesting in this regard too.
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!! Shanahan and Milne, jokes of the highest proportions. I know they read this blog and all I can say guys is take early retirement because your analysis no longer has any credibility in an age of internet instant information.
Ooh Mumble is working again.
So ACNielsen sees the Greens go from 8% to a record 13% for ACN, while the last three Newspolls have been 11%, 12%, 11%.
Yes, it seems the baiters that come on here saying how they voted Green in 2007 but never will again have been shown up for what they are.
Ahhh, righteousness.
Greens to hold Senate BoP after the next election! The number of people who believe otherwise is getting smaller by the day. Kudos to Antony Green.
In the past two weeks, Rudd’s satisfaction has gone up 2 and dissat down 2. I think from that we can safely conclude the small shift in other numbers was due to the Turnbull drag factor.
bob,
only Shanahan and Milne believe the greens won’t hold the balance of power in the senate…
Turnbull has shown throughout his career and since the election loss that either he has a hide of body armour or is totally unaware of how brazen he is and how dire things get for him.
He hates not being superior and will detest not being top dog among this lot, as I can imagine he holds them all in contempt.
I doubt that Turnbull will want to hang around after the next election for another 3 years, that means 4 years before he can have a shot at PM. He wont be that patient.
His only chance then is in 2010 or never. Given his audacity and total lack of fear or propriety I can imagine him plotting as we speak to undermine Abbott and Co.
He especially wouldn’t want Abbott to have a honeymoon. So I am hoping for lots of fun and games.
Otherwise, if Turnbull is bored with the whole thing then he will leave after the next election. But a shot at the PM, Top Dog in the country is pretty hard for a narcissist to let go by ….he could be a contenda.
38
If you mean Glen then yes but if you mean Christine then no (I presume they are not related).
Re by-elections on Saturday, How did the MSM spin that as a win for Abbott? there was a swing against the libs in both seats! isn’t the norm a big swing to the opposition party mid-term for any elected govt?
Still no-one (MSM) has asked how much the mad-monks scheme to combat CC will cost thus how much the plebs will end up paying. 50bn mentioned above.
Re women hating the mad monk, I think both men and women hate this nut job in equal proportions. Re his stand on Abortion and the RU486 pill won’t affect libs policy when in govt: absolutely laughable. He will white-ant both of those stands continuously, it would be like putting Brian Harradine in charge of…… Abortion and the RU486 pill, jesus god help us all!!!
If this is Abbott’s honeymoon i would hate to see the divorce
#42
I suggest we will see that divorce next year
mexibeem
Rest assured, Abbott will be as Tiger Woods to the electorate’s Elin Nordegren.
And, similarly, as a bloke, I also have no time for the budgie.
None of the women I know who have stated an opinion on Abbott, and thats about 15-20 in the past few days, can tolerate him at all. Contempt is the most common reaction. Many refer to him as a ‘sleaze’.
If I were PM, I would offer Turnbull a job as Special Envoy on Climate Issues. Turnbull would love it. Who in their right mind would ever want to lead the Liberal Party anyway!
The net never forgets.
Who can forget this little episode.
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/08/22/1061529330032.html
Can you imagine the hive of activity PB will be in circumstances where Labor are locked in negotiations with the Greens?
I think William may very well do a Frederick Holder…
The stability in Rudd+Labor’s numbers really are the stand-out features of the polling. The PPM numbers must be a worry for the Liberals: they have just selected a leader who is as just uncompetitive as both Turnbull and Nelson. Add to that, they have just burned Joe Hockey, and they must be wondering where the next Liberal PM is going to come from.
Thomas Paine – 39
I agree it will be interesting to see how Turnbull acts in the next 6 months or so. Just as interesting is the question whether he will retire at the 2010 election and return to the business world. The Liberal (either Turnbull or another candidate) hold on Wentworth seems tenuous at best. Labor intend standing a good candidate in 2010. I suspect Turnbull’s thirst for representing the great unwashed masses in routine constituent affairs is greatly diminished.
Well most pundits and public seem to think that Turnbull was a disaster as Leader of the Opp. and according to this Newspoll 62% reckon he’ll be about the same….or worse.
Even about half of COALition supporters think that.
Hardly a ringing endorsement.
Why do you think Labor is sending these bills back to Parliament in Feb, and again in May if rejected? – it will be precisely so they can say to the electorate in September that THIS is their plan, and that they will pass it if necessary at a Double Sitting, and that they will not be negotiating with either the Coalition (tried that) or the Greens (to avoid the political “blowback” in some demographics from associating with them).
This cant be right. Rudd is still on honeymoon and now Abbott has joined him on honeymoon.
Are we having a foursome between these two God fearing, church going and hymn singing politicians? Tiger, Tiger, Tiger Tiger Tiger burning bright. (That’s the latest count).
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/abbott-gamble-pays-off-for-libs/story-e6frgczf-1225807524519
Shanananana must be smoking something else for Christmas.
So in fact Abbott has started worse off than Turnbull as PPM. Rudd Vs Turnbull 54-24. Rudd Vs Abbott 60-23. And Shanananana calls it “Abbott gamble pays off for Libs”. This man really has no shame and treats his readers like idiots.
Lucy Turnbull is dancing in the street with sharpen knives. I pity Abbott, he is not only fighting Rudd but Lucy Turnbull as well.
Finns
Nice summary, putting things into context.
It’s a pity those fawning hacks over at the OO couldn’t see past their noses and do the same – then again, when one see where their noses are one can understand why.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/a-sign-that-libs-have-got-it-right/story-e6frg75x-1225807506964
Methinks Milne is also smoking the same stuff as Shanananana. i dont know about Higgins, but there aint any battlers here at Bradfield. The only battlers at Bradfield are those who are battling to see who can get bigger house and more fancy car.
More on Milne:
there aint no high rise at Chatswood West, only low rise. The high rise in Chatswood is around the Chatswood rail station and for a 2 bedroom flat, it starts at $700K and a 3 bedroom can starts at $1.1m. Some battlers.
JV@1211, last thread:
JV, that’s the game of politics. I simply describe what might well happen.
I feel safer with leaders who are not committed christians, because it can affect their approach to all manner of things, climate change and the environment included.
If you think that jesus is coming real soon now, there’s not the same drive to wash the dishes, mow the lawn, paint the fence, and fix the place up before the rapture.
But that’s what we are stuck with, godbotherers on both sides of the fence. Not to consider possible scenarios is to lead to failure to see what may be coming, and that includes St Kev lurching further to the right to fill the moderate right vacuum left by Turnbull’s departure.
I suspect Kev’s minders were as gobsmacked as the rest of us were when Abbott took power. It looks like Turnbull pulled a real master stroke there, telling the world he would fight to the bitter end, but giving the impression to Minchin, Hockey et al that he would not in fact run if a spill occurred.
If you don’t consider all possibilities and prepare for them, you will be left floundering. I’ll bet Kev has issued a directive by now to work out what happens if Bronny Bishop takes over the helm. Doesn’t do to be caught out when the egg hits the fan.
From my recollection, the ‘Abbott isn’t popular with women’ meme began with a few journos noticing that male journos liked Abbott but their female counterparts didn’t.
Given the incestuous circle of journalism, and the prettiness of their belief that they are ‘the real world’, this meme has become accepted as applying to the world in general.
However, I think it is significant. Abbott would appeal to the men journos on totally non political grounds; they may disagree with everything he says politically and stands for morally, but they can talk to him on other subjects, particularly sport, and get along fine.
Female journos, however, can’t. If they tried to talk to him about sport, he’d adopt that awful attitude of ‘you can’t really know about x unless you’ve played it’ and there’d be few other subjects they’d be able to relate with him on.
Noticed this phenomena time after time in the ‘real world’ – all the men think someone’s a good bloke, most women despise him. That’s because all the men talk to that someone about is sport and he can’t engage women at all.
Socrates@1216:
Thanks for the solar thermal info – but it is an energy source in its infancy. All that business about the amount of concrete and steel needed – it is entirely possible that better designs will reduce that considerably.
I am reminded of bushwalking equipment. It is common for some (in my opinion stupid) bushwalkers to go on an overnight hike with eighteen kilos or more on their backs. My pack weighs 4.5 kilos without food and water, and I never go on any walk, even for a week, with a total packweight of more than ten kilos.
Nuclear power has had a long time to get things right, solar thermal is in its infancy, there are probably many efficiencies still to be gained.
Do what we do. I wash, dry and put away my clothes, my wife does hers. Saves a lot of marital angst. Same goes for cooking meals, then you eat what and when you want.
Finns: As mentioned ealier re Milne and Shameahan….LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL…Jokes in the press gallery. The laws of politics are about as imutable as those of physics, Abbott will not defy Newton’s law of gravity, he is as sunk as the Bismark. I love mixing metaphors!
The ABC is calling it “Abbott reaps poll bounce”. I suppose it’s true a rise from 14 to 23 is a ‘bounce’, but it doesn’t mask the fact that the polls suggests a major loss for the Liberal Party. The ABC should leave sensationalism to the commercial press.
I am totally convinced that the so called political reporting class and associated commentariat are no friggin good at their job and should be summarliy sacked. Better off replacing them with PBers, Glen, Vera, Finns; even Bob1234 would be better at least Bob can count to 4 and do rudimentary percentages.
This is my experience too but it doesn’t appear to be playing out in the polls to date. This is now the 3rd poll in a row that doesn’t support the women won’t vote for Abbott statement.
They didn’t even say this. A lot of them said they gave the Greens their second preference after the ALP. This is, of course, useless to the Greens and they won’t be crying themselves to sleep over it.
Abbott’s PPM soars from 14 to 23!
Put another way, he’s shot from absolutely hopeless to hopeless.
Keep it up Tony – another 5% and you’ll be merely in a demonstrably losing position.
This poll proves one thing: the elevation of Abbott to Liberal leader solidifies their conservative base, but that’s about it! Cowtowing to Alan Jones and the shock jocks might play well for you on Sydney’s North Shore and in the wealthier suburbs of Melbourne, but those people are rusted on Liberals anyway.
And predictably Milne and Shanahack will hype any small improvement in their ratings as the advent of the 2nd coming and the portent of disaster for Rudd!
According to Sunrise, Tony Abbott has caused the Liberal’s 2PP vote “to jump one percent”.
Crikey! I have a day off and I see this on the front page of the OO:
Panic? Hostilities? Seize the moment? Battlers? Abbott embraced?
Did the world change while I was mowing my lawns and getting an early night?
Lucy Turnbull will not be silenced. She likes to tighten Abbott Rosaries further.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/malcolm-turnbull-lashes-out/story-e6freuy9-1225807310128
BB, that sounds like Their ABC RN this morning with Fran and La Grattan.
Barnaby to be Shadow Finance Minister?
Lindsay Tanner must be having a good laugh right now!
Bushfire Bill: would you expect any different from News Ltd?
They are a bunch of Liberal media hacks, George Megalogenis is the only one who ever comes close to writing an objective commentary piece.
Its a shame Shanahan is back to his spinning best. Abbott has not improved anything on PPM. He hasnt had a rating before, and his rating starts below that of Turnbull when he took over. The good news for the opposition though is that their 2PP has held up well despite their troubles
Finns, I warned you all last week, don’t underestimate Lucy, she’s no shrinking violet!
56-44 equates to:
ALP 101 Seats
COALITION 46 Seats
OTHERS 3 seats
Obviously a great result for the conservatives, right News Ltd?
As usual Possum eases the pain of news ltd
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/12/07/newspoll-tuesday-no-bounce-edition/
Evan , not after the Australia Story. She wears the pants in the Turnbull clan.
The Liberals score 34% on the primary vote and this is “a sign the Liberals have got it right.” Huh? Two-thirds of voters don’t support the Liberal Party. That sounds about right to me: nothing has changed in voters’ estimation of the Liberals. If this is the Liberals getting things right, they will still be obliterated at the next election.
Finns@70:
Finns, I think you might have to recalibrate the Rosaries index.
How about doing him slowly, start with the left little toe, cut off the circulation there, and move to the next?
The tightening around the neck can wait till the next election, unless he self immolates before then.
The journey is long, it would not do to have your victim of a thousand cuts be throttled before the game is well begun.
In fairness to Shanahan, he’s really just said that it looks like the Libs might do better under Abbott than Turnbull or Nelson, which means they made the right move.
What? Latham has better PPM debut than Abbott 26 to 24.
My apology to Latham, Abbott is no Latham Mark 2, he is Abbott Mark-Less.
Bob Hawke called Abbott last week a “temporary leader” of the Liberals! LOL
Revelations in today’s SMH that Abbott’s much vaunted alternative to “Rudd’s Evil Tax” would cost 50 billion dollars, according to the Member For North Sydney.
I can’t wait to see what loony ideas Greg Hunt comes up with – planting more trees etc.
Don, this will fit Abbott nicely:
http://www.heirloomrosaries.com/rosaries/multimemorybracelet.jpg
All Lucy has to do is to pull and Abbott’s two ring circus will be three ring.
Maybe, but it’s hard to judge. The OO writers are on about Labor losing ground and the Libs being resurgent etc. etc., but how could they know?
Labor didn’t contest the by-elections.
The Libs’ vote dropped.
2PP figures are worthless when the parties involved are different between the two events (last election and last Saturday).
Labor won the Newspoll by a thumping amount.
Rudd is clearly ascendant over whoever the Libs put up as Leader.
How can people be expressing a vote of confidence in the Libs’ climate policy when even Abbott admits they have no policy (but one’s coming soon).
Articles and spin like these are relying on the notion that there is a silent majority out there just waiting for the right Liberal Messiah to lead them to heaven. Millions are ready to switch their voting intentions of years now that Abbott has arrived. It’s the old “Labor’s support is soft” routine. I see no evidence for it.
This is a bootstrapper’s bootstrapper.
On the debate thing, theoretically wouldn’t it be better for Rudd to have Bob B there as Brown would attack Abbott more and Rudd would come off looking the moderate one. Abbott’s populist crap about not doing anything much would look much worse up against Brown and the scientists 25-40%, than just against Rudds 5-25%.
I know the debate won’t happen but it would make good television.
When someone can show me that 60 – 23 PPM, 56 – 44 TPP, a stable 43% for Labor and an increased personal satisfaction for Rudd is something to be concerned about then I will start worrying.
The OO and the journalists are often complaining about the spin of governments. Well, this beat up by them over this poll surpasses any spin the government can come up with.
Shorter Newspoll commentary: no significant change.
Question for Mr Milne: Do battlers really live on Sydney’s North Shore and Toorak in Melbourne?
BB
I think it’s more the case that the Libs are relieved that Abbott has passed his first few “tests”. There must have been quite a few absolutely crapping themselves that they would lose Higgins and that Newspoll would blow out to 60+. They must be breathing a huge sigh of relief.
I’ve spoken to quite a few women and they really dislike Abbott. Either I’m talking to Labor voters, or they are Libs who won’t change their vote just because of Abbott.
I’ll be interested to see what his approval ratings show, as that would be the best way to see what women really think of him.
From a party POV, it all looks very status quo to me and Abbott is such a well-known quantity that I doubt it will change much. The Libs are still stuffed unless they can mount a brilliant scare campaign on the ETS.
Funnily enough, Tony Abbott has the most sensible thing to say about it.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/07/2763438.htm
90 – I agree Dio. Just one exception – “The Libs are still stuffed unless they can mount a brilliant scare campaign on the ETS” and Labor mounts no fear campaign at all, which it will of course.
I don’t see why exactly he would be encouraged by the poll. I was going to say a poll not being awful is not cause for encouragement, but of course 56/44 IS awful.
Tony is hosing down any unreal expectations. Good on him.
I see no evidence of this at this stage. Abbott’s ‘first poll’ is worse than Turnbulls ‘first poll’ and look where that ended up.
Abbott MAY save some of the furniture but that’s about it.
GB
Depends on what scare campaign Labor runs. They wouldn’t want to run a “CC will kill us all unless we act urgently” campaign for two reasons
1. People will point out that Rudd should have higher targets if it’s that serious
2. The polls show that population are increasingly saying that the threat of CC is being overstated and they are getting sceptical about alarmism
Disappointing. Still, the police are investigating and something might happen with that. X is still going to force a vote.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/no-australian-senate-inquiry-into-scientology-after-senator-nick-xenophon-raised-concerns-about-the-church/story-e6frf7l6-1225807564844
Abbott will have a CC policy which must cost. It will cost and have little or no compensation, nothing like the CPRS. Also the compensation of the CPRS to the householders and pensioners will be highlighted by the government. The scare campaign by the Libs just needs to be blunted.
1) Do not assume that the people you mix with are a cross-section of the community.
2) Don’t expect the attempt to paint Tony Abbott as a religious nutter to be any more successful than the attempt to paint John Howard as the worst person on Earth was or the attempt to paint unions as thuggish child-eaters was.
3) Do expect Tony Abbott’s preferred PM rating to reach the 40s – and stay there.
4) Continue to expect the Liberals to lose the next election, but by a lower margin than they would if the Howard haters had not transmuted themselves into Abbott abhorrers.
I’m going to have to read poll bludger/comment string alot more in the future. Thanks for the analysis.
Ah, yes, fellow Bludgers, you know that the ABC is an “ALP mouthpiece” when your first reading of the day comes up with this gem:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/07/2763438.htm
Past Federal Election results has the CA (Grouper/DLP) vote at Federal Election 1955 (c8 months after The Split) at 5.1%, peaking at 9.4% in 1958 after it spread to Queensland. Add in other fundamentalists who share Abbott & Pell’s social goals (decked out as “moral”) & Hansonite intolerance (decked out as “nationalism”), plus other Liberal voters so rusted on they can’t bring themselves even to vote informally, and you’d just about have the Abbott-led Liberals’ core vote.
I’d agree with Tony’s statement in the same ABC article
Finns, as one of the remaining 77%. it took only a second or two of scanning of Rupe’s online “quality” broadsheet’s lead group to decide not to ruin my day.
And geez, I’m still one of his target demographic, have been since Day 1 – one of almost 50% of GenBlue now, as Boomers crowd into it, among the “steady as she goes” 56% 2PP who do not intend to vote for/ preference the Libs.
If anything could improve the impact of Possum’s Liberal demographic train wreck it’s the thought of Tony as the driver!
Big call on the 40% chris.
Whats your reasoning?
Abbott will solidify the vote that he keeps. Liberals see him as decisive. The polls will bounce around a lot but the election will still see labor gains in marginals held by moderates. The seats held by RWNJ’s will swing further to them I reckon. Labor’s vote will increase making it’s marginals safer.
briefly@50 said
Can you imagine the hoop-la if Joe had been elected? The ETS may have passed and friendly cuddly Joe-boy may have gotton a few brownie points (or Newspol pts
) from Labor types saying thank you.
If he had been elected leader his honneymoon would have been much warmer than big mouth fool of an idiot Abbott’s (a women’s view
)
How would Shambles and the Dwarf have handles 50/30 say PPM. You’d smell their wet knickers from here!
How many Opposition leaders achieve 40% preferred PM results? Genuine question here.
Vera, errrr, Miranda’s
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/turnbull-blasts-abbotts-ets-bullshit/story-e6frgczf-1225807605281
BTW
quite a good article from ambit gambit.
http://ambit-gambit.nationalforum.com.au/archives/003610.html
The paradox graham mentions is why I think40% ppm will be unattainable.
Finns
Just as well I got plenty of pegs to put on my nose
I’m going out to Jervis Bay later so will say hello to any of your rellies I spot.
Showson
Malcolm is fast becoming my pin-up boy!
Well the Abbott faction has set the precedent haven’t they? According to them it is fine to completely undermine your leader even if you simply disagree on policy. Or as Turnbull puts it:
http://malcolmturnbull.com.au/MalcolmsBlogs/tabid/105/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/702/Time-for-some-straight-talking-on-climate-change.aspx
Turnbull’s blog. Brilliant reading!
http://malcolmturnbull.com.au/MalcolmsBlogs/tabid/105/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/702/Time-for-some-straight-talking-on-climate-change.aspx
As discussed last night, Turnbull is not going away, and will destabilise until he gets a chance for a spill. Saying the new leader’s position on CC is “bullshit” would appear to be today’s strategic hit in that campaign. Good stuff.
Just thought I’d EAT CROW for having made the wRONg call about this Newspoll last week after Abbott became leader.
I weighted too heavily that the “give him a fair go” syndrome would be strong in the Lib heartlands and that another Rogue pPoll was always on the cards from this Rogue Pollster, so I predicted a 53-47 2PP.
When you’ve got to eat crow, always better to eat it fresh.
Nothing has changed for the last 2 years. 56/44 is where it has been for ages.
That blog post is extraordinary in our system of ridiculously tight party discipline. If only there was more of this.
I think you should apologise for that libellously sarcastic comment. We all know that Janet and friends were only put on the ABC board to adjust the air conditioning.
Oh, there will be
Tony Wright discussing Newspoll figures on ABC Adelaide:
Alan Howe in the Herald Sun advises Tony Abbott to ditch Julie Bishop as deputy leader:
If Abbott did this there would be another leadership spill. Oh, and remember, according to Abbott, Bishop is a “loyal girl”.
Some positive news on the jobs front.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/jobs-crisis-fades-as-fulltime-ads-surge-20091206-kcuz.html
OzPol Tragic,
The DLP vote peaked at 11.1 percent in the 1970 Senate election.
The DLP was not a fundamentalist party, but a moderately left-wing anti-communist party, as I have explained more than once. Your attempt to associate it with Hansonism is really silly. The DLP was the first parliamentary party to call for the end of the White Australia policy and it supported land rights for Aborigines.
DLPers now largely vote Labor. Tony Abbott has no claim on the DLP heritage, as I said in my unpublished dletter to The Australian, on the Morgan thread.
gusface,
It’s more gut feeling than detailed reasoning. Tony Abbott will be a very energetic and aggressive leader who will paint the Liberals as a definite alternative. I do not agree with those who say he is articulate, but he will still get the message across; e.g., clean AND green, but without the BIG TAX”. He is very much an ends justifies the means sort of fellow.
Those like OzPol Tragic above who attempt to paint him as a fundamentalist will fail. Australia is not stuck in 1955.
The White anting has started sooner than I thought. Mal knows he’s on a winner here.
Brave predictions Chris Curtis. Can’t see it happening myself and I’m no Abbott hater.
I don’t think it will matter whether he is or isn’t painted as one. His policies alone will destroy him.
No honeymoon for Abbott as far as Turnbull is concerned. My tip: Turnbull will be Oppo Leader come election day.
Agreed but so what?
Agreed but this won’t be attempted by Labor anyway given Rudd’s religious beliefs.
An opinion based on nothing.
Maybe but not convinced.
The first debate Abbott has (with anyone) will show him up for the weakling he is
The more he’s in the public eye the more gaffs he’ll make and glangers he’ll drop!
What will sink Abbott is not his social philosophy but the known fact that he wants to bring back WorkChoices, which is he is not clever enough to deny convincingly. His climate scepticism won’t help, but it’s fear of WorkChoices II that will keep the socially conservative working class loyal to Rudd.
Spot on. Abbott’s hard work is yet to begin. He has to match his often conflicting rhetoric with policy and actions while constantly looking behind him. This will be good.
Malcolm Turnbull’s take on Tony as conviction politician extraordinaire.
Tony “the weather vane” Abbot. Blowing which ever way the wind is…
But the problem is that is unbelievable. Voters aren’t stupid, they understand that to lower carbon emissions someone must pay for relatively more expensive low carbon, or carbon free technologies.
Turnbull has 3 months to convince all the pro CPRS front benchers to resign on the first day of parliament. The reason could be that they no longer have confidence in their leader’s policy.
I’m not sure Abbott will stand up to hard questioning without getting narky. He started to fire up against Oakes.
More Turnbull
Dear me. This makes Latham look like Little Miss Muffet. Turnbull is writing Labor’s campaign ads for us!
All those rednecks and Rudd haters who listen to talkback radio will be expecting Abbott to deny CC (it’s bullshit to them) and not have a policy at all. That’s what they have been led to believe isn’t it?
The shock jocks have been telling them they won’t be slugged with a tax under Abbott and Joyce so what happens when Abbott brings out his policy and Labor do the costings and the rednecks find out Abbott has lied and it will still cost?
Cue Abbott video of his pep talk during 2007: “If workers are not happy with their current working conditions, all they have to do is change jobs.”
Now, that’s my idea of a gift that keeps on giving.
Yeah that’s the hilarious thing on Andrew Bolt’s blog, they are getting stuck into Abbott and Joyce for not having the guts to say that climate change isn’t happening or at least isn’t human induced.
Turnbull might yet get the Labor Senate seat he asked Keating for!
They’ll pretend they didn’t hear the policy announcement
Are we quite certain this isn’t a fabrication? It’s almost too good to be true.
He’s of far more use right where he is
True to a degree.
regarding the 40%, I see the thinking behind that and to a large extent it is how Tony picks the battles.
there is a touch of howie about him.
Love this comment from the ABC piece linked to earlier!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/07/2763438.htm
The Finnigans
The only area in Higgins that could be considered poor would be the Hawksburn Central booth area where there is a large public housing commission block. places like Alamain and Chadstone tend to be poorer middle class but as suburbs like Mavern have beconme very expensive to buy into suburbs like Burwood and Chadstone now are more middle income.
Turnbull would be more use to Labor as an Independent senator. He’d love all the power if this occured and he held the BOP
Turnbull: We have an Opposition whose current leadership dismisses the Howard Government’s ETS policy as being just a political ploy.
That’s pretty damaging if people believe it and the ALP gets it across effectively in the election campaign. It can be used to dismiss any opposition policy as a political ploy, not just whatever they come up with on climate change.
Damaging? It’s absolutely devastating.
The Higgins property market is interesting, Higgins has several suburbs with Million dollar mediums and the bottom of the Flat market is about $400,000
Barnaby to be opposition’s finance spokeman? I bet Linsay Tanner is shaking in his boots, with laughter that is
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/coonan-denies-being-pushed-out-20091207-kdfb.html
Chris Curtis #100
1. Abbott’s “religious nutter” depiction is a self-portrait, perfected during the RU468 (“morning after” pill), stem-cell research parliamentary debates, abuse of Bernie Banton and Nicola Roxon, among countless other similar efforts.
In a democracy, enfranchised adults have the right to choose their own religious/ philosophical positions. Trying to legislate to inflict one’s personal positions on an entire nation is dictatorial; hence the all-party parliamentary “women’s revolt” which defeated both bills. Many who voted them down expressed reservations about RU468/ stem-cell research (qv Hansard); but objected most strongly to Abbott’s trying to force every Australian to live by his religious views.
2. In 1996, Internet was in its infancy and few accessed it. Australian communication media – print and AV – were controlled by media “barons” who could, and did, control what news was presented, with what slant. Apart from old volumes & microfiches in public/uni libraries, few had back copies of key events and analyses. Now, thanks to Internet, Intertubes, blogs, message boards etc; their easily accessed archives, and search engines like Google, this is no longer the case.
That Howard’s “Honest John” was bestowed because its was then a common name for a spiv/ con-artist/ serial liar, and his stint as treasurer was disastrous, with record-high interest rates and budget deficit (A$9 billion in March 1983 dollars) Keating/Beazley’s never topped, did not surface until Internet and up-loading of RBA, Hansard & other official documents, as well as media back-files were up-loaded … in time to be used to great effect on Election07 blogs and message boards.
There will be no “public amnesia” with Abbott as there was with Howard. This one blog on this single topic is a very good example of how mainstream media has lost its control over news and interpretation. Expect Abbott’s parliamentary & media rants, abuse, faux pas etc – stored in countless online archives, on blogs, social-network sites etc – to be uploaded constantly. Note that, last week, every TV channel replayed his insult to Bernie Banton, his swearing at Nicola Rixon (many Liberals believe these two cost them the election even before the Lindsay leaflet affair) and commented on his rigid, RW Catholic beliefs.
3. Re-read “Liberals’ demographic train wreck”. The only pro-Coalition demographic is GenBlue (55+ year olds), which is also the strongest church-going demographic. As Baby Boomers (not a pro-Liberal demographic) replace GenBlue’s dying Liberals, even GenBlue will cease to be. Incoming voters (GenY) are strongly in favour of “Saving the planet” and “doing their own thing” – more so than GenX and Boomers, whose catch-cry they were & still are.
(Note: Essential Research was one of those who have, since Election07, polled religious attitudes – you can access it in back-files. It reported c45% identifying themselves as atheist/ agnostic, and c22% as regular church-goers – and not all of them would agree with Abbott’s hard right RC stance.)
The problem for Labor is not finding material to use against him, it’s choosing what to use.
Humble Pie,
Way to excited last week re higgins, totally overshot. Umm
What does it and the poll show. Maybe that the long term trend is impotant, short term excitment in the politically obsessed realms of the blogertariate does not translate to blue rinse Toorak pensioners voting green.
Secondly, that the writers for the Australian are completely barking.
I we are to believe the opinion writers in the Australian it is absolutely amazing that the ‘Howard Battlers’ in Higgins and Bradfield did not rush over to the Greens.
I don’t think that Turnbull can come back and lead the party with the CC deniers in the ranks. Someone has to leave and go a third way. Either turnbull and the moderates, or Abbott and the RWNJ’s
I have a feeling that Labor will resist trying to play the man, partly because Abbott is very well-known already. What they will do is play the policies: they have no policies on anything important….only a longing for the past and a self-wedging rejection of the Government’s policies…..
If I could draw cartoons I would draw a cartoon of little Kevin in his jim-jams opening his presents under the Xmas tree on Xmas morning, and in one box would be “Tony Abott as Oppo Leader” and in the next box would be “Barnaby Joyce as Shadow Finance Minister” and in the third box would be “Malcoolm Turnbull as Liberal Party blogger.” And then Kevin would look up to the star at the top of the tree and say “Thankyou baby Jesus for these truly wonderful presents.”
I wonder how soon before the Young Liberals move to have Turnbull expelled from the party.
As many have stated previously, there are no Howard Battlers in Bradfield. They are rusted on.
That would be Hockey.
All it would take is a few bad polls for Abbott, especially with questions on climate change and the CPRS, and the whole leadership will be up for grabs again.
Barnaby Joyce to be Shadow Finance bod. What a joke!! After watching his rant on Insiders yesterday and his performances last week in the Senate I betcha Lindsay Tanner will be beside himself at the thought of debating the “accountant”. He’ll make mincemeat of Joyce.
I can’t wait to see it.
BTW – Canberra journo on ABC2 this am was jumping with joy at the excitement now ahead for the journos with Abbott as leader. The way Trioli and she played up Abbott’s ‘surge’ in the polls was as bad as Shamaham.
Here in the west The Sunday Slimes trots out Dr Rossanna Capolingua, who gets on her knees and polishes The Mad Monks scapular.Who says real women don’t like him?
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,26446714-5005371,00.html
I was speaking to a retired ALP senator the other day and she was saying that the ALP don’t need to do anything, the Libs are doing are doing it for them. She said that Abbott was the worst possible choice for the libs.
Tom.
Barnaby Joyce to be Shadow Finance bod. What a joke!!
That’s about the funniest appointment I can remember. Even if he’s technically qualified – being an accountant – I can’t take him seriously in that role. And surely Insiders could have come up with a better interviewee to finish the year with.
I believe modern political negative advertising harms the sender, not the receiver.
Yeah, some in the media are trying their best to polish a turd, but there’s only so much polishing you can do
The comments on Turnbull’s blog are sort of like ‘car-crash viewing’ reading. They’re so compellingly awful. Turnbull looks like joining the ranks of Hewson and Fraser as despised former Liberal leaders. What is in it for ‘moderates’ to even be part of the Liberal Party when they are treated so poorly?
What happens when Turnbull comes out with a policy to tackle cc? Will Barnaby have to go to the backbench again, to uphold his principles?
Didn’t seem to do Howard much harm with the Latham L-plate campaign in 2004. In fact he increased his majority and won control of the Senate.
Bob, you’re back!
What’s the current percentage?
From the past:
You mean Abbott?
Bob doesn’t let facts get in the way of a good rant. It’s why most of us skip over his posts.
[Ross Gittins
Abbott can't escape climate change and taxes
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/abbott-cant-escape-climate-change-and-taxes-20091206-kcuw.html
Abbott’s difficulties are just beginning.
Malcolm Turnbull has summed it up nicely for if we are serious about doing something then we need to be prepared to have a cost.
Abbott is clearly all over the shop on this issue and this is his greatest problem, sure it is one thing to point out that the Government’s bills are not prefect but to have changed position at least four times in less than six months can only be called dithering.
Dario…whoops.
My omniscience has taken a bit of a dent over the last couple of days!!
I blame hayfever, I can hardly see…
Well, as usual, you are wrong.
Negative campaigning teds to work best when there is an element of thuth in the story for example Latham’s L plates worked for Lathem was as we now fully know not mature enough for leadership of this country
Fair enough
They’re notorious for their WorstChoices.
jaundiced view #114
Which a smart pollie won’t do this side of Election10/11′s wipeout. By now, he has the numbers, though that might change in 10/11. After the Abbott experiment, Liberals might see sense and rebuild the Liberals – Joe or Malcolm would make a good fist of the Calwell/ Beazley role – though I doubt it.
When a party’s parliamentary powerbrokers head to the extreme, whether it be right or left, their moderate internal opposition has a tough time differentiating itself from a Centralist government. One of Menzies’ most effective political ploys was to position his party where Curtin’s (and to a lesser extent Chifley’s without the miners’ strike) had been. Fraser’s position on social issues was similar, to the extent his government passed anti-discrimination legislation developed during Whitlam’s term.
A Turnbull or Hockey Opposition would, I think, find it hard differentiate itself enough from the ALP to attract enough swinging voters.
I couldn’t understand anything he was saying.
Surely Turnbull’s bombing raid will not endear him to those in the party room who are not enamoured of his style of leadership. But I guess Hockey’s chances must be improving
Where the Liberals once campaigned on the slogan “We’re Not Waiting For The World” it now appears they have no qualms to do so. I find it amusing the climate change sceptics have called climate change action an attack on national sovereignty whilst also calling for our national parliament to be constrained by waiting for other parliaments to pass laws.
ShowsOn – it was a bit pathetic. The current line of the Oppn “a great big tax” sounds so childish.
I couldn’t understand why Cassidy didn’t challenge Joyce on that line. It obviously isn’t a tax on the majority of us so why doesn’t the MSM pull them up on that. Any ideas?
Why do you think?
Laurie Oinkes crossed the line with his “verbal sludge spews forth” and now, not a single comment puplished. How very sad.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/political-attack-dog-abbott-must-bite-his-tongue/story-e6frezz0-1225807094497
Why would he? Cassidy has been repeating this line himself for the past 2 weeks non-stop.
Well I reckon that the ABC should not allow either side to get away with blatant rubbish like that. Surely their job is to ask for factual explanations so the public is informed.
Too idealistic I know.
I sent a scathing comment to Oakes but didn’t check to see whether anyone else had. He probably got so many it became embarrassing. I hope.
It’s not called The Onesiders for nothing!
Well, it looks like Lucy in the Sky with Malcolm tightening Abbott Rosaries before Rudd even gets a hand on it.
Why would Cassidy challenge anything an opposition spokesperson might say – he is after all working at the ABC, and no-one there with the exception of KOB on a good day seems willing or able to seriously challenge any of the crap that they regularly come up with.
The wholesale swallowing of the ‘Abbott bounce’ line is a case in point. It’s now reached the status of an established fact at your ABC.
Record Green primary vote in a Liberal-held seat?
So many on this forum say that the ABC is full of pro-Liberal bias, but if you go over to Andrew Bolt’s blog they say that it is full of pro-Labor pro-AGW bias!
Then if you go to the ABC site, Antony Green has to put up with comments like this:
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2009/12/bradfield-and-higgins-any-comments-on-tonights-abcelections-coverage.html#comments
But Janet and friends were only put on the ABC board to sing karaoke before the start of meetings
It is very very unlikely that there will be a Liberal leadership change before the election, for several reasons.
First, Joe Hockey has canceled himself out by proposing a free vote on the CPRS/ETS bills. To have a chance last week, he had to choose a position, argue for it, stick with it and offer to lead. He wimped out and will now be seen as nice bloke who cannot make a tough call. He is cactus as a potential leader.
Second, in choosing to oppose the Government’s CC bills, the Liberals may have chosen a policy dead-end, but they have also demonstrably chosen internal unity. They have decided it is better to go down fighting Labor than fighting each other. There will be no wish to revisit CC policy until the election has been held.
Third, Turnbull is even less likely to have electoral success than Abbott, so he will not have the numbers to challenge Abbott. His PPM ranking dropped to 14% – about the worst ever. Turnbull is a formidable, courageous – even charismatic – character but he is not a politician.
The Liberals will fight with what they’ve got. It will get nasty. The lies and distortions, the manipulation and demagoguery, have already commenced.
Big deal. In the absence of a Labor candidate, any non-Liberal would have polled that well in those by-elections. If there’d been no Green, the DLP or the Sex Party or the anarchist would have inherited that vote. What does this prove? Nothing. Uncontested by-elections never prove anything.
Well, Tony Wright didn’t swallow it. He pointed out on ABC Adelaide this morning that the polls have ON AVERAGE been stuck at 56/44 for a bit over 2 years, and this poll is no different.
He also said it was ONE poll, so it is hard to draw any conclusions. He also said that it wasn’t surprising that Abbott’s preferred PM rating was higher than Turnbull’s simply because of the novelty value of having someone new.
He’s a pretty lone voice at the moment…
Kev and the Premiers should be having a presser after their meeting at about 1.30 apparently.
We’ll get to check out Captain Kenneally
I find it amazing the number of Liberal voices who are claiming we should ignore that the ‘massive tax’ the Opposition are now opposing was Coalition policy at the last election. To them, the thought that Howard lied to try to win an election is not disturbing or beyond belief at all. Does this mean we can’t believe whatever policy Abbott proposes to combat climate change now?
And then move to expel Wilson “Mad Uncle” Tuckey for doing pretty well exactly the same thing.
Vera, a nice Rosaries for the Captain and Maria. Just hope it doesnt strangle her like it’s strangling Abbott.
http://www.yellowribbonrosaries.com/pics/Aventurine-Lamp-Garland.jpg
And it wasn’t just Howard, it was Coalition policy, in fact Senator Wong pointed out that Howard and Mark Vaile were both on the cover of the policy document!
Well that would be a great line during the election campaign wouldn’t it? The Liberals were elected at the last election to pass an ETS but ultimately didn’t, why should anyone trust them to vote for whatever their new climate change policy turns out to be?
Channel nine news break says Abbott is closing in on Rudd. Technically I suppose he is but, really, where is the “but he has a long way to go”?
I cannot bear to watch Trigger Trioli these days. She is 80 trying to look 18.
Today’s events demonstrate that Abbott’s honeymoon (such as it is) is likely to be shorter than Michael Jackson’s.
They love ‘Honest’ John almost to the point of idolatry. Monkey see, monkey do. To them, lying is an honourable act. Lieberals have a long legacy to uphold.
I think it all depends on how much propping up the MSM can give him
Finns
A vey pretty Rosary for the Captain.
Here’s one for the Monk.
http://www.sweetnpsychotic.com/As_HangedMan.jpg
The media pumped up Turnbull’s tyres too, when he took over. It’s what they do. They want the Liberal gravy-train of government advertising billions back on track.
vera, you are too kind to Monky
They did the same for Rudd too, and in his case it had some merit because he took Labor from statistical ties to clear poll leads.
Not happy, Malcolm.
They also cooperated with the Liberals in smearing him with beat-ups about the Scores strip-club visit, having coffee with Brian Burke, and even eating his own earwax, for goodness sake. OK, it didn’t do his poll standing any material harm (the contrary actually), but that’s not the point. The point is, they campaigned with the Liberals to tear him down as he was just stepping into the arena.
I couldn’t care less if the Libs rip themselves apart. The important thing is they’ve finally acted like an opposition and voted bad legislation down. Why should they have a policy, that’s the governments department. Bob Hawke didn’t have a policy in opposition. Neither did me too 07. So let’s see this government do something that actually works, because methinks we now have an opposition that will hold them to the task. This Government needs close scrutiny, it’s not so long ago that they were an unelectable rabble.
Abbott may have painted himself into a corner with his ETS stance, right from the very start of his leadership of the Libs!
His $50B+ current stance based on a 5% reduction from 2000, will look a bit sick if the Copenhagen Conference comes out with a 20% or 25% reduction figure.
That “could” mean basically a 200 to 250% increase figure on his $50B+ costing. ie $200B+ to $250B+ without the means to put it into action or link in with the rest of the developed world! ie with an ETS!
Abbott is basing his costing of $50+ as a dramatic reduction on Rudd’s estimated $120B cost of his ETS! Crikey!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/07/2763621.htm?section=justin
The perception of Tony Abbott as a ‘religious nutter’ is restricted to a small minority of the electorate who wouldn’t vote for him, but if the Libs did ever gain the image of being a Christian conservative party it would be very electorally bad for them (even in the US this image has been bad for the Republicans) and Abbott knows this. On the ETS reminds me of Medicare, 1980s Libs opposed this but claimed to support broader access to health insurance but were never able to explain their convoluted schemes.
The scores issue probably helped Rudd by making some think he was more blokey.
And the Brian Burke story actually did more damage to the government because it meant Howard had to sack Senator Ian Capbell, who then resigned completely from parliament.
The ear wax thing was more trivial, but the MSM wouldn’t of jumped on it if it hadn’t been on YouTube.
Google has decided to move the piccodilos of Tiger from the Sports section to the Entertainment Section:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34305090/ns/entertainment-gossip/
I was just reading that 50% of the current US prison population is African-American. During segregation in the 50′s, it was only 30%.
I’d be interested to see what, if anything, has changed since the Referendum in Australia for the indigenous population.
Not only on climate change, but any other policy as well. Since they lied about that and they welched on the ETS deal with the government, what right do they have to be believed about anything? Howard used “Who do you trust to keep interest rates low?” (and they didn’t), so maybe Rudd can turn that around and ask simply “Who do you trust?” (on anything).
Remember, the $120 billion figure for the ETS is how much money it will raise in 10 years. Over that period the Government will pay out more than $120 billion of compensation.
The media worked hand-in-hand with the Liberal Party in a smear campaign against the “Labor upstart”.
Chris Curtis #124
1. I said “election” – as did the link. Neither specifies House numbers.
2.
. Keep telling yourself that, though, overall, less than 10% backed it in 1958, and by your own admission, only 11.1% swallowed that line (and, from memory, The DLP is the true ALP) in its best Senate performance. Nor, from my reading of research literature meeting the objectivity standards demanded by our top “Sandstone + ANU & Monash” universities or peer-reviewed standards, did researchers whose “back-grounding” included the history of CA politics, both generally and in specific countries (inc Oz)! There’s a large international research corpus on the topic!
3.
I did not; so stop the typical CA/ Leninist Guilt by assertion aka argumentum ad hominem: poisoning the well crap. In my school – and most other schools of the time – logic was a core subject, especially for those aiming for “verbal” university courses and subjects, which also included it.
4.
I’ve seen no objective evidence to support this claim; far from it!
As DLP vote fell, and its influence dissipated, whither its loyalists would go next was widely debated, including in peer-refereed journals and other publications. Most believed to the Country Party, although there was considerable argument that the DLP’s desire to enact their agenda would see them colonise the Liberal Party. Backing this argument was the failure of yet another round of small-block (“selector”/ “soldier”) settlements and, most significantly, UK’s entry into the EEC’s effect on dairy, fruit & vegetable farmers, which made Santamaria’s small (peasant) farming policies unworkable.
In QLD, the DLP became closely aligned with Joh BP, joining the coalition of RW elements, including the League of Rights, in trying to implement Joh’s very conservative “moral” agenda. Newspaper accounts, letters to the editor and research articles (I still have a book of clippings on SE Qld meetings on a range of issues including school curriculum) establish this beyond doubt. As one who attended an RC secondary college, I can assure you, from attendance at class & school reunions, that NONE of my fellow students who were CA/ DLP vote ALP. I also knew DLP members during my working life, and found the same pattern. Victoria’s experience is similar.
In NSW, Groupers remained initially in the ALP as its Right – and the (mainly Catholic) Right still controls it – but many hard-line anti-Communists (esp Eastern European and Mid-E and SE Asian migrants who’d lived through post-1945 civil wars) increasingly joined the Liberals, their factional warfare successfully keeping the latter from government for all but a few terms since the 1950s. There’s a corpus of peer-reviewed and other literature on this – and the belief that it (and not Splitting in NSW) has created the greatest problems for both parties. Similar factional wars in QLD & Vic Liberal Parties have achieved much the same result.
5.
Shows On simply refuses to accept that it was part of a highly orchestrated smear campaign covering all of the MSM. The fact that it didn’t happen to work is irrelevant, as the intent was clearly to damage him
Shows On is in denial for some reason.
I dont really understand where the “lets worry about Tony” camp is coming from. So, after years of huge poll leads, and noted poll support for action on climate change, even among liberal supporters, changing to a denialist position is likely to improve their vote?
um: how? its far more likely that voters have already decided they’re voting ALP in 2010.
I think the “insiders” (which include most commentators here) in this country have missed a critical point: action on climate change is popular, NOT because of the science, or debates over policy – but rather, because the lived experience of ordinary voters is that its just plain getting hotter, there’s more extreme weather events and the climate is changing for the worse.
That’s why Abbott is screwed – they’re effectively trying to argue against ordinary common sense now.
This piece by Paul Sheehan demonstrates that they are off to a flying start to do it all again and try and prop up the fragile Abbott regime. Not quite sure if this is the way to do it though!
[When Julia Gillard faced the media outside Federal Parliament in Canberra on Wednesday she looked shell-shocked. She then proceeded to give the most jittery, hollow, nonsensical performance of her career. It was pantomime of the lowest order.
''Today the climate change extremists and deniers in the Liberal Party have stopped this nation from taking decisive action on climate change,'' the Deputy Prime Minister said, deadpan, into a thicket of cameras and recorders.
Extremists and deniers. In case anyone had missed the point, she repeated the phrase five times. ''Now [we] have been stopped by the Liberal Party extremists and the climate change deniers. This nation has been stopped from taking a major step in the nation’s interests by Liberal Party extremists and climate change deniers.”
This is clearly going to be the mantra the Rudd Government uses to describe anyone who opposes its pointless legislation on an emissions trading scheme.
Gillard used the terms ”denier” or ”denial” 11 times, pointed words because they carry the connotation of Holocaust denial. The last time that tactic was used in the national debate, after the release of the Bringing Them Home report, it exploded on those who used it.
So this is going to get interesting because the political ground has shifted in the past six months. It is now the Rudd Government that appears to be in a state of denial.]
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/copenhagen-backlash-hits-a-government-in-denial-20091206-kcsu.html
What is this lunacy?
I don’t think it is a smear campaign to report that Rudd visited Scores or met with Brian Burke. They are facts.
Abbott described climate change as, quote: “absolute crap”. That’s definitive denialism that can’t be dressed up any other way. This Sheehan throws in a quite despicable strawman with his references to Holocaust denialism. He should pin a Liberal banner to his ‘articles’ and exit the commentary scene in disgrace.
Godwin’s law applies here too right?
What about the claim that he was asked to leave for inappropriately touching a waitress?
These numbers are very important without a doubt but there is another set of numbers that will be equally as important.
We need to know what the governments of our major export market’s plans are to place an emissions duty on materials and produce from countries that do not meet agreed international emissions targets. If the agreed target is 15% and the Libs announce plans to make 5% reductions then the panic through the business and farming communities will be like wildfire.
I hope such a duty would be high enough and painful enough that no country which wants to trade internationally would fail to sign up to the agreed international targets.
Psephos #157
I loved Kudelka’s manger & Magi cartoon http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/gallery-e6frg6zx-1111120349509?page=2 (definitely one for one’s Xmas “cards” & emails!) and Tony’s money tree http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/gallery-e6frg6zx-1111120349509?page=1
233
Reading my post back it sounds a little garbled – I hope it makes sense.
Holy Hell! I just read David Burchell’s claptrap in the OO. An example of the purple prose:
Who does he think Abbott is? Winston Bloody Churchill? This idolatry the conservative columnists are going through is symptomatic of their yearning for the Old Days when things were certain and Howard was PM.
These are mature people, well-educated and supposedly experienced journalists. And they write rubbish like this? They sound like a bunch of schoolgirls mooning over the captain of the football team.
Creating a bootstrapper with the legend that Abbott has single-handedly saved the Liberal Party – via one poll (where the Libs went backwards) and two safe-seat by-elections – isbad enough, but I’m really starting to worry they might be believing it themselves.
Not quite.
In the United States, the conventional wisdom is that it hurts both the candidate who delivers the attack, and the target of the attack. (But presumably it must hurt the target more, else it wouldn’t be utilised.)
In a general election, it apparently has the effect of driving turnout down.
In a primary election, it’s one reason to avoid negative attacks. For if candidate X attacks candidate Y, then candidate Z benefits most.
But this has questionable applicability for Australia where we don’t have primary elections or voluntary voting.
Journalism is an oft misused term these days
The Indians have a more important thing to worry about than CC:
http://www.hindustantimes.com/India-demolish-Sri-Lanka-to-become-number-1-Test-team/H1-Article1-483751.aspx
Phillips, the guy who assaulted Rann, is pleading not guilty. The case has been held over to Jan 13. He’s going to call Rann and “focus” on the Rann-Chantelois relationship. Rann and Chantelois will obviously be under oath.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26450909-5006301,00.html
LOL! That guy is a complete nutter. Whatever happened between Rann and Chantelois is not an excuse to assault someone.
Diog, your Wangker Wangker?
The good thing about him pleading not guilty is that when he is found guilty he will face a harsher sentence. I mean there were only about 30 eye witnesses!
Is Rann screwed?
triton #164
Let us not forget, Dearly Beloved, Yon Barnaby attended the same intellectually elitist school as Our Abbott, during the period when it still selected the top 2% intellectually, and trained them as only elitist Jesuit Colleges did.
The Abbott, at least, is a conflicted (deeply conflicted, I suspect) character, and it helps him weave his own political rope. If Barnaby’s conflicted, I’ve seen no signs yet. Of his ambition and acting skills, however, I’ve no doubt. When initially elected, Barnaby seemed like a voice of sweet reason in the Nats; but in Qld’s rural (especially poor rural) reaches, it’s Joh- and Katter-like illogical diatribes that go down a treat! Which type does he specialise in now?
At least Abbott’s transparent, even if kaleidoscopically so.
Of course, I don’t read The Arsetrailian so I don’t see Kudelke cartoons. Great minds think alike.
SO
I’m not sure he can even call Rann to discuss Ms Chantelois. It’s not like he’s pleading temporary insanity at seeing his wifes supposed ex-lover. I would be interested to see if Rann has to answer questions about it.
I suppose it goes to motive though so it might be allowed.
Any decent judge won’t allow much latitude on questioning. He’s got no hope.
Should we wait until the next SA poll comes out and then post the ALP’s primary vote with a kissing smiley next to it several hundred times?
I always look forward to your post’s BB but this one definitely captures the moment….Cheers
The defence wouldn’t need to worry about motives etc. In any case motive is irrelevant as it’s hard to imagine he didn’t intend to physically batter Mr Rann.
The question is whether Mr Rann’s alleged sexual relationship with his wife years and years ago would be sufficient to establish the attack was provoked. I highly doubt it and think it’s questionable what evidence Mr Rann could provide to the case.
If “suspicion of adultery” is considered a legitimate excuse for physically assaulting someone, then I hope the government institutes a Royal Commission into the entire South Australian judicial system.
Bushfire Bill #237, How the ghosts of the Victorian Era’s pretentious hacks must envy David Burchell’s command of purple prose! What a ?”literary” Time Machine it is.
You’d have to get a lighter sentence if the motive was rage at a broken marriage rather than being annoyed that Rann repeatedly mispronounces Wang Wang though, wouldn’t you?
Compulsory reading:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/dec/06/copenhagen-editorial
Any our Newspapers part of this 56?
If it’s 56-44 to Labor with an 11% Green primary, absolutely!!!
Abbott, are you listening?
To add – SA Greens got 4% for the poll immediately before, and after the 2006 SA election. They got 6.5% at the election. For over a year, they’ve been polling double digits, peaking at 13%.
It certainly carries similarities to the federal situation!!!
Let me be the first to say i’m not giving up my electronics
Suspecting someone of having sex with your wife is not an excuse for physically assaulting them. And remember, Chantelois left HIM, not the other way around.
SO
It is obviously not an excuse but it might be a “mitigating factor”.
The Finns #256
Possible Fairfax broadsheets? It’s the closest we have to The G. Pity we don’t have an Independent!
Look forward to reading it!
Bolt will freak about this. More evidence of a global conspiracy! The newspapers are merely responding to orders from their communist/vegan masters.
No it won’t. Plus the fact he is pleading not guilty means that he will just end up with an even harsher sentence.
Say no more:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/contentmakers/2009/12/07/were-all-individuals-say-the-worlds-newspapers-im-not-says-fairfax/
The cricket calls. If only Adelaide Oval marks the renaissance of the great WI teams of yore! What a great Christmas gift that would be! Love Calypso Cricket!
Finns
They had the logos of the papers carrying the editorial on their front page. There were no Australian papers in there.
Our papers would hardly commit to that. After all, Miranda Kerr might have a wardrobe malfunction that would mean they would have to kick the editorial off the front page.
I think I’ll wait to see what the judge says.
The Finns #266
Bummer! Bugger! Et Cetera!
Love living in the Webbed World!
It would be very bad public policy if judges factored in extra-marital affairs as a ‘mitigating factor’ when sentencing people for criminal charges.
He has already made a post on this.
I love finding out new world temperature records and spamming them to Bolt’s forum. For example today I spammed this one:
http://www.examiner.com/x-7324-Coastal-Carolina-Weather-Examiner~y2009m12d4-National-Weather-Highlight-for-12–3–09-Portland-ME-shatters-record-high-temperature
The most frequent replies state that this is simply an example of a change in the WEATHER and that this is completely unrelated to a changing CLIMATE!
I know what he is going to say in the end. He will give the guy a fine and a suspended prison sentence on the grounds that he refused to plead guilty. If he plead guilty it would just be a fine.
Such a noble position adopted by Fairfax. :-Z
SO
That is their absolute favourite.
Every cold event shows that there is no climate change, but every hot event is just weather.
Of course it would. Because it would say to every aggrieved husband that they can go out and take the law into their own hands and get away with it.
They haven’t even caught on to the fact they I post such links every couple of days and then don’t reply to their replies!
Not only front bench, but you have to imagine that if Abbott remains leader, there will be huge pressure to let Barnaby take the mantle of leader of the Nats before too long – making him our alternative Deputy PM. LOL
Joyce will very likely one day be Acting Prime Minister. I don’t see him going away quietly anytime soon.
Well that’s obviously the real reason he wants to move to the House. He wants to be leader.
Today’s Age has a frontpage editorial on climate change.
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climates-day-of-reckoning-looms-20091206-kcwv.html
Possum:
[Turnbull to Abbott – You Bleeping Bleeper that Bleeps:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/12/07/turnbull-to-abbott-%e2%80%93-you-bleeping-bleeper-that-bleeps/
Possum points out how completely unremarkable today’s Newspoll really is:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/12/07/newspoll-tuesday-no-bounce-edition/
Abbott’s worst nightmares:
http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2008/06/07/skyecombine.jpg
Thatcher really was decades ahead of her time on climate change. Quite amazing really. And we had Hawke, Keating and Howard after that, none of whom showed the slightest understanding of the issue, hence our status as the world polluters in the world and our pathetic dependence on coal.
You’ve lost me on 284 Finns.
Please explain?
Three of them look like absolute ball crushers. Abbott might be singing castrato before long.
Who are these ladies? two of them appear to be identical twins.
That’s what I thought.
Sara M -abbott supporter
Skye Leckie- cocktail queen
Lucy Turnbull- mals wife.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-14358-215.htm
O’Dwyer now over 60% 2CP.
This is untrue. The first Australian P.M. to commission a report into Australia’s CO2-e emissions was Keating in 1992.
Ummm
Didnt gough set up the dept of the environment
just saying
Did he do anything with it?
Queen in what sense, Gus?
The Greens always do badly on the late vote because they don’t have the troops to organise a good postal vote campaign – although you’d think that would apply less in a by-election when they can concentrate on one seat.
Britney Speers has some Essential Report details, not particular good for Abbott:
http://twitter.com/david_Speers
Who are the identical twins?
And only now are the major parties giving any credence to acting on global warming. Pfft.
How many Green Prime Ministers have done anything about climate change?
Supplementary question:
How many Green Senators have done anything about climate change?
Fulvio
The twin is skye, and she is the dahling of the A set (hubby is david)
Finns is alluding to the powers behind the throne,tho Sara M has stated her support for Tony A
Well given you’re counting commissioning a report as action on climate change, the Greens co-sponsored a Senate select committee on climate policy. Probably had about the same impact.
I thought they were lesbian lovers- hence mad monks nightmare
You can’t fix a problem until you know exactly what it is.
Well sisters at least; there is a large height difference.
And we won’t mention the tautological use of two and twin in the same sentence; we’ll leave the pedantry to you.
Wow! A Report! But he didn’t do anything.
Look! There’s a unicorn!
*don’t understand*
Jebus
ITS THE SAME PERSON IN DIFFERENT PHOTOS.THEY ARE NOT TWINS
sorry.
Or frequent RU486 users
It’s not tautological at all. There are four women in the photo, two of them are identical. I asked who they were. I know you’re jealous of my uber-pedantry, but you’ll have to do better than that.
Well he actually did if you count nationalising Landcare and the complete change to the sustainable development philosophy for farming.
But I’m not surprised that people will dismiss those major changes to environmental policy.
Exactly.
Double Jebus
SHE IS TOP DOG IN HIGH SOCIETY.
sorry,again
ShowsOn, what?
Labor has had majority government. The Greens haven’t.
This is somehow an excuse for climate change inaction by Keating?
Keating had the power for change. The Greens didn’t.
Hear hear Dio!
Exactly.
So that accounts for the height difference, right, Pica?
Well done Keating! Let’s drop the ETS because clearly Keating actually did something for climate change!
LOL!!!!!!!
Oh the hypocrisy.
*thunk*
Exactly Gus. Sarah is quite tall so the camera is at a different angle. The one on the right has the same strands of hair in the same place.
Ah, it’s a composite photo, I didn’t notice.
Some touchy souls in here today!
??? Even by your standards this is a ridiculous thing to post.
Reminds me of a nurse who works here. We were talking to a patient who said that she had a twin brother who was very similar to her. The nurse asked her
True story.
BTW
Gough I think commissioned the first research by the CSIRO into sustainable land practices.
No, I think it’s about standard. Bob tries to maintain a consistent record of adolescent offensiveness and stupidity in his posts.
My analysis of how people voted in Higgins on Saturday is interesting.
The best match to how people changed their vote from 2007, and assuming that all those who voted Green last time voted Green this time, is that:
11.3% of those who voted Liberal last time voted Green this time, and
23.6% of those who voted Labor last time voted Liberal this time.
(My analysis was based on Antony Green’s guess of 2PP results as of this morning.)
If there really was such as swing of Liberal’s voting Green, then this is very bad news for Abbott.
Given O’Dwyer’s campaign, I’m not surprised that so many Labor voters voter Liberal.
Back to the drawing board bob, this makes no sense.
1) I don’t believe anyone was arguing it was an excuse for no further action and in fact the Government has proposed further action.
2) The ETS has already been dropped by the Coalition, Fielding, Xenophon and the Greens.
Faaaark…..
Do any of he people posting on here have “real” jobs….LOL
Psephos
If you were an “uber-pedant”, you would have an umlaut over the “u”.
Considering how useless it was in achieving it’s aim I can’t say I blame them.
Oh great, a composite photo, must remember never to trust digital media….
Yes I completely agree. If 10% of Liberal voters are swinging to the Greens, then Abbott is in deep trouble, becuase 3/4 of those votes will go to Labor, and then Labor just needs to concentrate on holding the vote it already has.
FINALLY! You did it Bob! You admitted you support the position of the Liberal and National parties.
Can I point out I’m not guessing preferences. I’m reporting actual preference counts.
OzPol Tragic (151 at 11.17am),
I don’t think a person who abusing a constituent or swearing at Nicola Roxon constitutes the definition of “religious nutter”.
Your construction of opposition to abortion as a purely personal decision is illogical, and if is the definition of “religious nutter”, then a number of ALP MPs, including Kevin Rudd, must be in the same category.
In a democracy, religious people have the same rights as non-religious people.
OzP T:
Well, that’s a shock. Are you sure it wasn’t just some terrible mixup?
My impression of Katter has changed a lot. I used to think of him as a bit of a Joh-like nutter. He says some strange things, but I think he’s a very good local member.
The MSM are so transparent. Again, talking up the resurgent opposition under the new leader using, as with Turnbull, the PPM compared to the previous leader, with no change in 2PP. How many times can they get away with this rubbish? How many times can Rudd’s “honeymoon” be over? Whats most frustrating is when the polls move in the government’s direction, they dont acknowledge the error of their previous commentary. I think the most telling point out of the newspoll is that the opposition vote has stood firm ie. not dived in the context of the leadership turmoil and the election of a less popular leader. Although, even Abbott should get some initial bounce
And BB, I still think you should replace Shameaham at the OO
Only if I was a German pedant. Uber as a prefix is now assimilated into English, and English does not use umlauts.
I now wish Labor had fielded candidates in the byelections. Would have eliminated any questions about swings or against the Libs
I now wish Labor had fielded candidates in the byelections. Would have eliminated any questions about swings to or against the Libs
True, but it’s very rare that non-religious people try to impose their views on religious people. It’s nearly always religious people who try to force other people to conform to their moral code.
They voted Liberal because
a. There wasn’t an ALP candidate
b. They wanted to stick it up the Greens who chose to sit alongside Joyce and Minchin.
Bob
All of the posturing of the Greens has led to … wait, let me think … yep, no … yep … absolutely nothing.
I’d be very careful of expressing sentiments about uselessness inachieving aims. As I said the other day …
If nothing else, the failure to pass even the (admittedly weak) ETS that was on the table through the senate this week and the energizing of the right with the election of Abbott should show you that we live in an inherently conservative nation and that some people will do anything to avoid having to accept an economic burden that they are clearly responsible for but have not had to pay till this point.
The greens WILL hold the BoP in the Senate after the next election. Good! More power to them. I agree with their position on the action required. I also think they are playing the political game well. They are now a real and legitimate player in federal politics. They will, after the next election, hold real and significant power and I’m glad that those within the electorate whose views they represent will finally have actual representation in our legislative system.
But they played this for political gain as much as any party. And to do so they shot down a real opportunity for action. Action that – despite the Green zeitgeist of self doubtlessness – is by no means inevitable.
You guys aren’t going to believe how many people buy in to Abbott’s lie of a “big new tax you have to all pay”.
In other words, an “all or nothing” approach to the action that I wholeheartedly agree is needed will in this circumstance deliver you – and indeed has delivered you – nothing.
Nothing.
Exactly, and those rights do NOT extend to forcing religious or non-religious preferences on everyone through law; whether moon worship on Fridays, Papal encyclicals, or wearing propellor hats.
By the way have people seen this Venn diagram?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/06/funniest-venn-diagrams-th_n_347552.html?slidenumber=t68gFwAm6Sw%3D
Gary Bruce (128 at 10.52am)
1) There have been comments on this thread to the effect that no-one the commenter knows can stand Tony Abbott, which just means the commenter mixes in circles that cannot stand Tony Abbott rather than the circles that have applauded his election as leader.
2) The “religious nutter” tag won’t be attempted by Labor but by the usual suspects who undermine Labor’s cause by associating opposiiton to the Liberals with nuts and extremists.
3) My expectation that Tony Abbott will reach the 40s is based on 41 years of political observation and involvement. Time will tell. Remember those on this site in 2007 predicting Labor to win over 100 seats or to reduce the Liberals to the level of the Caanadian Conservatives? Remember my prediction? It was 82 seats to Labor.
4) There is no way to convince.
Psephos (130 at 10.54 am),
Exactly! But that won’t stop some pursuing their anti-Catholic agenda.
ShowsOn, (133 at 11.00am)
People will believe anything. It only has to be some people, not everyone.
I’m sure the ALP would prefer to leave this as an ‘unknown’. If they’d run a candidate the spin would’ve been that the swing to the ALP wasn’t as large as expected.
Michael Wilbur-Ham – 326
Thanks for providing us with the results of your research.
Let me just ,when I first came to this website and stated that the by-election results strengthened my view that the Greens were likely to win the seats of Marrickville and Balmain at the 2011 NSW State election, my view was immediately contempuously dismissed by a few people who regularly post here. I had considered setting out my reasoning for such a view, but after I discovered that one such poster, who masquerades under a venerable title is a paid political party hack, decided against doing so, preferring instead to allow him to continue wallowing in his rigid fantasys.
However, your analysis adds further strength to my argument.
From David Speers (of all people) via Twitter:
“Essential Report: Abbott seen as less intelligent, capable and understanding than Rudd. More arrogant, narrow-minded and out of touch”. Shock me.
“Essential Report: 21% more likely to vote Liberal with Abbott as leader. 33% less likely. ” Bounce that, OO!
Adam, putting the business of the tricked-up photo to one side, I must respectfully disagree on the tautology issue. You don’t need the word ‘two’ to describe twins at any time, regardless of how many other people are around. You may need it to describe more than one set of twins, but never a single set, it’s unnecessarily and tautological. You could have simply said ‘there appear to be a set of twins in that photo’ – easy.
Richard Carter (216 at 1.10pm),
Kevin Rudd did have a policy at the 2007 election. He had lots – the ETS, ending WorksocalledChoices, computers in schools, national curriculu, trade training centres in schools, child care rebate increase, etc, etc. The “Labor has no policies” line did not work then, and it won’t work now.
Mr Wilbur-Ham, thanks for you analysis. It’s certainly interesting to consider.
Steve K said:
Well by my figures, 76.4% of them voted Green
I find it really sad that such nonsense can be said on a forum such as this.
If Steve K really believes this, he needs to get a clue as to how the majority of the population really think.
And if he does not believe it, then I wish he would stop wasting our time with spin.
Well, there is a simple answer to that, the majority of the Australian population wants the CPRS passed.
So Julia Gillard isn’t Labor anymore. I bags not being the one to tell her.
[''Today the climate change extremists and deniers in the Liberal Party have stopped this nation from taking decisive action on climate change,'' the Deputy Prime Minister said, deadpan, into a thicket of cameras and recorders.
Extremists and deniers. In case anyone had missed the point, she repeated the phrase five times. ''Now [we] have been stopped by the Liberal Party extremists and the climate change deniers. This nation has been stopped from taking a major step in the nation’s interests by Liberal Party extremists and climate change deniers.”]
Chris -
I agreed with you on this but it still doesn’t mean Abbott is popular or will be.
The important thing is that Labor keeps out of it. Everyone else can please themselves.
Many predictions on this site turn out to be incorrect. Your just might be another one.
Agreed.
Michael WH
Thanks for relaying that information.
I ran away from that Higgins thread. It turned into Bizzarro World where the Greens were to blame for everything the Labor couldn’t do. I remember Psehpos trying to explain why the result was a massive failure for the Greens, oh watch the ALP spin machine spin itself into a logical whirlpool.
William is probably doing important things – here’s Essential Report
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/12/07/essential-report-abbott-vs-rudd/
The average estimate was 86 seats, the median estimate was 85 seats, i.e. very close to the final result. I excluded people who said either Labor or Liberal would win 150 seats.
ShowsOn
What the?
Sorry guys, had to swim away for a bit shoppen at Hoppinghagen. Have no idea who that twin lady is. It was just a good photo of Lucy in the Sky with Knives. Oooooh, women just hate better than men, that is all.
Does anyone here think ALP could have won Higgins? Would Libs have gone to ALPmore than the Greens?
Michael Wilbur-Ham, You continually refuse to acknowledge the point made by several posters here for over 2 days now that there are some Labor voters in Higgins (maybe 10% of them) who chose to vote for anyone but the Green candidate That’s not some donkey vote. I believe that to be a considered and intelligent decision. You choose to call this ‘spin’. I think you are simply trying to put the best spin on a poor result for your preferred party.
Clearly my comment about Brown and Co deciding to side with Abetz, Joyce and Minchin (how’s that for a bunch of fruit cakes) grates with you but I am only stating a fact, an inconvenient truth if you like.
I always thought Labor should run in Higgins but not Bradfield with a good local moderate Labor candidate.
I don’t think there would’ve been a drift to the Liberals if a Labor candidate ran. And the Liberal voters that went Green would’ve leaked preferences to Labor.
Um, where did Gillard say anything about religion? “Climate change extremists and deniers” is clearly a reference to – climate change extremists and deniers, not to anyone’s religion. Do you seriously think Labor ministers are going to risk offending Catholic voters by attacking Abbott because he’s a Catholic?
centaur009, it wasn’t for no reason that the ALP didn’t stand a candidate. Saturday’s result just confirms the wisdom of that decision.
Shame that our Green bludgers need a corporate account with Windscreens O’Briens to deal with the constant replacement of shattered glass jaws – the poor petals can dish out all the merde against Labor posters, but cry like little children when the blowtorch is placed upon them.
Steve K
And how many times has the Govt sided with the exact same people?
Seriously, is there actually some substance to your commentary?
Oh goody… Frank starts with his informed responses…
The Essential poll provides yet more evidence that, as a more learned colleague would put it, the popular notion that Abbott has a particular problem with women voters is a load of hooey.
That’s the sounds of Astrobleme calling the aforementioned company for urgent assistance
I rest my case.
Psephos
He said they wouldn’t use the term “extremist”. They did.
Steve K
Of course it’s spin. You have no evidence for the assertion. How do you know that the Lib vote wasn’t Labor voters protesting against Labor’s failure to field a candidate so they voted Lib?
You don’t. It’s spin from Labor headquarters.
Abbott’s arrival as LOTO really seems to have had a negligible impact on voting intentions, going on Newspoll and Essential. Abbott certainly fairs better than Turnbull on the charachter descriptors, so that would be mildly encouraging for the Libs. But Abbott is already a well-known brand, and love him or loathe him, most people already would have a view about him-we might not see much shift in the numbers for Abbott going forward compared to a more unknown charachter. Certainly the Libs would be hoping there is no honeymoon factor for Abbott in these numbers-if there is, he’s in trouble.
OzPol Tragic (225 at 1.21pm),
I don’t get your point 1 – ‘I said “election” – as did the link. Neither specifies House numbers.’
In your original post, you said:
‘Past Federal Election results has the CA (Grouper/DLP) vote at Federal Election 1955 (c8 months after The Split) at 5.1%, peaking at 9.4% in 1958 after it spread to Queensland.
I replied with “The DLP vote peaked at 11.1 percent in the 1970 Senate election”
The DLP’s aims, which I believe I have posted before, were as follows:
‘1. Democatic labor’s Social Philosophy
The broad goal of the Democratic Labor Party is to develop and modify the existing structure of Austral;ian society to in order to bring it closer to being a free and just democratic society. The basic principles which form the foundation of Democratic Labor’s political objectives are summarised below.
2. The Primacy of the Human Person
Democratic Labor maintains that every human being has an inherent dignity and essential worth which is absolutely independent of all value or usefulness to society.
On tis principle rests the prime political goal of the Democratic Labor Party –
TO DEVELOP AN AUSTRALIAN NATION OF FREE MEN AND WOMEN BASED ON THE RECOGNITION THAT THESTATE EXISTS FOR THE GOOD OF THE INDIVIDUAL PERSON.
Freedom – Humanity’s Rightful Inheritance
Democratic Labor maintains that the dignity and essential worth of the human person can be best respected and preserved if each individual has the ready opportunity to participate in the making of decisions which affect him.
On this principle rests the second political goal of the Democratic Labor Party –
TO DEVELOP AUSTRAL AS A FREE SOCIETY IN WHICH EACH CITIZEN HAS THE MAXIMUM POSSIBLE OPPORTUNITY TO PARTICPATE IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND MAKING OF ALL DECISIONS (ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND POLITICAL) WHICH AFFECT HIM.
Responsibility – The Corollary to Freedom – imposes on the individual correlative responsibilities to the common good.
On this principle rests the third political objective of the Democratic Labor Party –
TO DEVELOP AUSTRALIA AS A JUST DEMOCRATIC SOCIETY IN WHCH POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC INFLUENCE OR POWER IS DISTRIBUTED ON THE WIDEST POSSIBLE BASIS THROUGHOUT SOCIETY.
Establishing a Just Society
Democratic Labor pledges itself –
TO DECENTRALISE TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT POSSIBLE THE OWENRSHIP, MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF THE MEANS OF PRODUCTION, DISTRIBUTION AND EXCHANGE.
Recognising the undue political power stems from a societal structure in which decision-making is remote from the individual, Democratic Labor pledges itself –
TO THJE BROADENING OF THE POWER BASE OF SOCIRTY BY DECENTRALISATION TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT EFFECTIVELY POSSIBLE OF POLITICAL AUTHORITY WITHIN SOCIETY.
DEMOCRATIC DECENTRALSM
THE IDEOLOGY OF FREEDOM AND JUSTICE
1. Defining Decentralism
The guiding political philosophy, or ideology, of Democratic Labor is DECENTRALISM, which may be broadly defined as the spreading through constitutional means of wealth, power and property on the widest possible basis throughout the community.
As a general principle, in a DECENTRALIST SOCIETY, the State should do only what individuals or intermediate autonomous bodies are not able to do. Further these autonomous bodies (regional councils, trade unions, residents’ associations, cultural societies, professional institutes and so forth) should only do what individuals or family groups cannot do well.
2. Political Decentralism
In the field of Government, this means that there are certain duties (for example, immigration, defence or international treaties) which are most appropriately performed by a central political authority – the Australian Government).
Outside this range of duties, the central government’s function must be to help co-ordinate, towards the common good, the efforts of those levels of government or the many autonomous organizations which are more directly controlled by their constituents or members.
3. Economic Decentralism
Economic decentralism means that the personal ownership of the nation’s wealth is equitably distributed on the widest possible basis.
Political decentralism without economic decentralism means that they employee is relegated to the position of a ‘wage slave’, and has little or no opportunity to achieve his destiny though the exercise of responsibility.
In order to bring about this free and just democratic society, the DLP is pledged to the following political principles –
The creation of a nation economically strong, nationally secure, fully employed, in which poverty shall have no part, with the greatest possible educational opportunities and the highest possible moral and cultural values, and dedicated to the principles of liberty and peace.
1) The establishment of the economic, social and political foundations of personal freedom by decentralisation to the maximum extent possible of the ownership and control of the means of production, distribution and exchange; by the devolution of power to the smallest units for effective decision-making; and by the decentralisation of population. The implementation of economic democracy by support for profit-sharing, co-operatives, worker ownership, small scale enterprise and employee and consumer participation in the control of industry.
2) Te maintenance of Parliamentary Democracy, the assertion of the individual and community duty to observe the rule of law, the assertion of independence in judgement and action of duly democratically elected political representatives.
3) The preservation and support of the family as the basic unity of society.
4) Te acknowledgment of the roles of Individual Initiative, Private Enterprise and the State in social and economic affairs.
5) The maintenance of the Australian Federal system wit a due distribution of power and economic resources between the Commonwealth, the States and Local Government.
6) The restoration and maintenance of effective legal authority of the Arbitration system as a means of determining wages and salaries and as the instrument for resolving industrial disputes.
7) The acknowledgement of the necessary and proper role of the trade union movement in society and the democratic control of trade unions by their membership.
9) The development and maintenance of an adequate Defence Force.
10) The closets possible economic, cultural and mutual defence alliances with friendly nations.
11) The adoption of electoral systems under both Federal and State laws to enable appropriate Parliamentary representation for significant minority groups within the community.
12) The establishment of the concept of pluralism in education, and that the principle of general per capita payments be adhered to in the distribution of Government assistance to non-Government schools.
13) The protection and conservation of our natural environment and the planned use of natural resources in recognition of the close relationship between man and nature and the finite nature of the earth’s resources.
Democratic Labor calls upon all citizens to join with us in achieving these goals, so that Australians may enjoy a better life.’
There is nothing “fundamentalist” there. There is a lot that is social democratic.
The political opinions of researchers do not mean much against the first-hand documentary evidence I have provided.
Straight after you mentioned the DLP vote, you posted the following ‘Add in other fundamentalists who share Abbott & Pell’s social goals (decked out as “moral”) & Hansonite intolerance (decked out as “nationalism”), plus other Liberal voters so rusted on they can’t bring themselves even to vote informally, and you’d just about have the Abbott-led Liberals’ core vote.’ The use of the word “other” indicates that the DLP and the other groups you mention are all fundamentalists, so you are the one doing guilt buy association.
The DLP people I know vote Labor. Four of the five former DLP state presidents I keep in touch with support the ALP. The DLP unionists in Victoria are members of the Labor Party. The DLP vote in the 1976 Victorian election in Labor-leaning seats not contested by the DLP went largely to the ALP. Of course, the proportion is not 100 per cent either way.
I do not see the relevance of peasant farming and soldier settlement blocks to the argument. Don’t confuse the NCC with the DLP.
I am not disputing Tony Abbott’s claim that Bob Santamaria was his spiritual mentor. I am disputing the claims by Stephen Matchett that Tony Abbott’s heritage is from the DLP and that the DLp lnly wanted to help “God-fearing” families. His endorsement of the Howard IR laws shows this is not so. The Australian has previously published my rejection of this claim:
‘A Labor party, nevertheless
The Australian Thursday, February 01, 2007
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php/theaustralian/comments/a_labor_party_nevertheless/
Letters
TONY Abbott insults the thousands of men and women who sacrificed so much to found the Democratic Labor Party when he says “the DLP is alive and well and living inside the Howard Government” (“Abbott’s tradition warning to Libs”, 30/1).
The DLP was a Labor party committed to social justice and human rights – from the right to life to the right to be treated with human dignity as an employee.
The DLP senators would have vehemently opposed both lots of the Howard Government’s industrial relations legislation as attacks on the union movement and the family. They would have been equally critical of the treatment of asylum-seekers. They certainly would not have joined in the kow-towing to the Chinese president.
The DLP unions re-affiliated with the ALP 20 years ago, and that is where the DLP belongs, not in the anti-worker, anti-family Liberal Party that even Robert Menzies stopped voting for. ?Chris Curtis ?(Vice president, Victorian DLP, 1976-78) ?Langwarrin, Vic’
Thanks for ER Possum.
If I was a Lib numbers man I would be weeping right now. They need a game changer and Abbott has delivered the status quo. I can’t see how he can get much traction on anything from that starting point. Hard to move up … but the potential to slide much further down than Turnball ever could have.
The Liberals seem to have opted for the option so frquently overlooked by those who have a clue – the high risk/no return strategy.
Eratosthanes 342
Yes, exactly, and I predict Labor’s campaign will revolve around completely bypassing the Greens on this issue. They will take THEIR amended legislation (if it is blocked in Feb and May) to a double dissolution, and if they win the election, will pass it at a double sitting. Labor will never have a Senate majority, and the Greens may well end up twice as many Senators as they have now {giving them the much-desired “sole balnce of power”}, but on this issue I think Labor will deal directly with the Australian public.
Rudd will quite enjoy presenting Labor as the “sensible middle ground”.
Where did they say this?
Abbott’s sore point being hit here and it was showing. Self inflicted, no sympathy. It’s going to cause more troubles for him especially during the heat of election campaign.
“Keep your rosaries off my ovaries” so said Catherine the Great:
http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/12/07/abbotts-catholicism-is-fair-game/
Steve K,
I don’t deny that a few Labor supports would think that you do.
They should all get together one day and have a chat about it. I’m sure they would all fit into any of the local pubs.
And what is to me the most serious, is that the Labor hacks on this forum have refused to accept that the CPRS is NOT action on climate change, but just something that will delay things by a short time.
And I have never had a reply about my to my points about how the 25% figure only applies if the rest of the world takes much greater action than Australia, and that the CPRS is bad because it makes it very hard, and very expensive, to make greater cuts at a later time.
It is our children’s future I’m talking about, but to many here it is just politics
It’s not necessary, Rudd is on record saying that Intelligent Design is a load of rubbish and shouldn’t be taught in science classes.
But this is the most important issue of our time. For weeks we heard Green supporters saying “you can’t blame our party as we don’t have the numbers to pass the legislation.” Rudd and Wong (plus Turnbull and McFarlane) worked very long and hard and reached agreement. Despite the Liberal party ripping itself apart over the issue 2 Liberal senators were prepared to defy their new leadership and voted YES to an ETS. At the end of the day Brown and Co voted NO when their numbers would have sealed the deal.
It’s your party mate so you have to live with the consequences of that decision.
You can throw personal bards if you wish but I am simply stating facts and genuinely held opinions. You’re entitled to yours.
ltep@368:
That’s not the way I read Poss’s report. It seems to me from Poss’s cross tabs that it is women who are more negative about Abbott.
Can you explain why you think this?
We can’t make deep cuts later without making small cuts now.
Any party that says we should just make a 30 or 40% cut by 2020 has no chance of being elected so shouldn’t be taken seriously.
On the radio news this morining, I kept hearing of how the Liberal vote went up, as well as how Rudd’s rating in PPM fell to a mortal 60%
So naturally I thought “ooh, here we go, it’s a 52-48 or a 53-47″
Nope, the tories are still a mile behind.
If this is the honeymoon period for Abbott, then the rest of it ain’t gunna be pretty
Is there such thing as a dead monk bounce?
No, I thought it up all by myself.
Methinks the Greens are becoming all bent and twisted over recent decisions by their leadership. That’s their problem not mine.
I don’t recall either Rudd or Gillard saying they wouldn’t use the word extremist. Why would they say that? Can we have a source please?
Fellow bludgers, this might be of interest,
“How does Tony Abbott’s first poll compare?”
http://www.ozforums.com.au/viewtopic.php?id=6656
My furry colleague has conducted a similar analysis and, not surprisingly, has come up with the same conclusions.
Must be a conspiracy.
Government won’t support Senate inquiry into Scientololgy:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/07/2763874.htm?section=justin
That’s disappointing.
Chris Curtis said they wouldn’t use the word “extremist”.
*Bangs head against desk*
Sorry don, I was reading it incorrectly. I will consider myself severely reprimanded.
Chris Curtis doesn’t speak for the government.
Yup, the Libs are stuffed at the next election. But we knew that already.
And why are people considering the Libs win in Higgins as a ‘failure’ by the Greens? Demographically, I’d say we’ll never win that seat. And I’m not at all surprised that a good proportion of ALP voters went with the Libs over the Greens. O’Dwyer went with a very soft, very ‘focused-on-local-issues’ campaign. Even though that infuriated someone like myself, who is aware that a federal member probably has very little to do with getting a new police station through local planning processes, to the average punter she looks pretty ‘normal’ – for a Lib that is
.
I’m actually quite pleased with the primary vote percentage.
a good point from Latika:
dont mention the war too. The war between Abbott & Turnbull.
Although women seem to be less likely to think he is superficial. He seems to be a lot better on all counts than Malcolm Turnbull although still far behind Kevin Rudd.
diog, who is Chris Curtis? one of your Wangker?
Mr “no spin” Abbott was asked 9 times to comment on Turnbull and avoided it every time.
Any party which does not wish to make such cuts is denying the science that says that this is what is necessary.
I have contempt for both Rudd and Turnbull because both talk as if they are providing a SOLUTION and taking ACTION, but they are not. No where close.
I find this forum very depressing because most of you are so into politics that you miss the point that this is much more important than just politics. You can’t play politics with nature.
Sorry, but it really is very simple. We do the cuts needed, or we suffer ever increasing temperatures.
I’m also sick of you all using clever words in this debate to make your points. Even going to 40% cuts starts out small. But the only hope of getting to 40% is to decide NOW that this is where we want to be, and start working towards this. (This is just plain Engineering.)
But to most of you this is all just a game
Laurie Oakes: “Mr. Abbott, say Malcolm Turnbull”
Abbott: “Well Laurie, hmmm, arhhh, hmmm, hmmm, arhhhh, nah, nah nah”
Steve K
and we’re fine with it. The people who keep moaning and complaining are Labor supporters here.
It comes back to whether it is the Greens responsibility to pass legislation that they were denied the opportunity to negotiate on, and had always said they weren’t going to pass.
In all seriousness the Greens voting no hasn’t had any negative impact on them at all.
I think many of us have accepted that the CPRS (and indeed the amended CPRS) are not good enough. The question then turns to, what is the next step? Some say it is best to pass the flawed scheme and work from there. Others think there needs to be significant change before the scheme is passed. Some think the scheme should be binned and replaced with something else.
I take it you are in the group of people who thinks we’d be better off with nothing if we can’t have everything. I’m not sure a majority would be in support of your position.
No, it is simply a party that realises that to do ANYTHING you first need to get elected.
I find this forum very depressing because many of the Greens supporters refuse to accept that politics involves accepting the achievable, even if it isn’t what is desirable. I don’t understand why it makes sense doing nothing instead of doing something, even if that something isn’t enough.
This just makes no sense. If the current government said that Australia is unilaterally going to make cuts of 30 or 40% by 2020, that would just hand over Government to the Liberals who will then cut 0 or 5%.
How would it be good for the country to hand over government to a party that isn’t even convinced climate change is human induced?
Well the current government’s policy is to cut by 60% by 2050. All you are saying is the government should cut by more in the next decade and less in subsequent decades.
MWH
This claim that Science says 40% is rubbish. Science says roughly that we should stop at 350ppm in order to have a reasonable chance of avoiding big temperature rises. Science also says that we are already there. Thus Science says 100% cuts by 2020 are what is really needed. (Bob Brown just says 40% because he knows it would be political suicide to be honest. The 40% figures are Greenspin).
Thus we need to get an ETS system in place straight away. There will be teething problems.
Soon after it will be politically easy to tighten down the caps. The people will be clammering for it.
Vote now for an ETS. For us and our kids
The Essential Research poll indicates that only a maximum of 11% of Green voters support the ALP or Coalition’s position on the CPRS. 21% of ALP supporters support either the Coalition or Greens position. 12% of Coalition voters support either the ALP or Greens’ position.
Who cares?
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/pm-commits-600m-to-cut-elective-surgery-waiting-lists/story-e6frgczf-1225807826927
The ALP position is the bare minimum that we can do. Why would the Greens support the bare minimum when they can keep pressuring the Govt to do more. The least that will happen is that the present policy will get passed in a DD. There’s no point in the Greens supporting that position because that’s the least that will happen.
By making it harder for the Govt they have the opportunity to TRY and get bigger cuts… It’s not actually a hard concept to understand.
No. The least that will happen is if an Abbott Government gets elected and we get nothing, unless you actually believe the denialist camp will allow climate change action to occur.
They know how to count votes in Namibia.
Where did I say that he did?
*Bangs head against wall*
Up to 25% is the bare minimum we can do? I think you should have a look at the Libs current policy for a reality check…
You are concentrating too much on the starting target. The fact is it is an ETS where the targets can change according to international commitments and domestic political pressure.
The Greens will only support it if electricity generators don’t receive any free permits. That would result in massive increases in electricity costs that would produce an easy scare campaign for the opposition. Even with all the compensation, electricity prices are going to go up 20% in the first two years, and 30% in the first three years!
Even though most households will be better off, they won’t think they are better off when they see their power bills sky rocket.
ltep
tee hee….
But seriously, that won’t happen.
MWH @ 395
If you go back and read what’s written here you’ll find that almost nobody on this site disagrees with the action required to avoid dangerous climate change. Nobody.
The reason that ‘just politics’ as you so disdainfully put it is the focus of many bloggers attention is that there are political realities as well as scientific ones.
The reason that we had an ETS voted down in the senate is because the denialiberals are guilty of ignoring the scientific realities of climate change, but also because the Greens are just as guilty of ignoring the political realities.
You’re accusing us all of ignoring reality. I assure you we are not. You are.
Again, as I said the other day …
The ETS is a framework for action. It associates a cost with carbon. That cost can and will change. If you think that the voting down of the ETS today is a win for the environment you’re insane. And I can name the insanity – narcissism. You believe that if everyone just listens to you then they will realise you’re right and agree to the action you believe is require. This is bull butter!
If nothing else, the failure to pass even the (admittedly weak) ETS that was on the table through the senate this week and the energizing of the right with the election of Abbott should show you that we live in an inherently conservative nation and that some people will do anything to avoid having to accept an economic burden that they are clearly responsible for but have not had to pay till this point.
The greens WILL hold the BoP in the Senate after the next election. Good! More power to them. I agree with their position on the action required. I also think they are playing the political game well. They are now a real and legitimate player in federal politics. They will, after the next election, hold real and significant power and I’m glad that those within the electorate whose views they represent will finally have actual representation in our legislative system.
But they played this for political gain as much as any party. And to do so they shot down a real opportunity for action. Action that – despite the Green zeitgeist of self doubtlessness – is by no means inevitable.
You guys aren’t going to believe how many people buy in to Abbott’s lie of a “big new tax you have to all pay”.
An all or nothing attitude in this circumstance gets you nothing!
We are not disagreeing with you on the WHAT of climate change action. We’re just pointing out that you don’t have a HOW. And unless you can put forward a plan for making the types of cuts that you and I both know are ultimately needed – in a way that has any hope of being realised – then frankly you’re just having a sook about the fact that the people of Australia aren’t doing what you want them to.
This isn’t a rhetorical challenge to you. I want you to respond with a course of action that you believe will convince the electorate to move immediately towards the 40% cut in emissions.
Astro
I understand the Green’s political games and strategy but I think it is wrong.
Let us get what we can in place and then keep pressuring for more. At least 1) some complicated mechanisms for getting industry to factor in carbon prices will be being put in place and 2) the voters will see that an ETS is nothing to get spooked by.
How about the revelations that the government will have to dish out volumes of money in compensation when they have to raise the targets later? It harks back to the NSW ALP paying off CCT after backing down on road changes. That was the start of the collapse of any semblance of majority support for the NSW ALP government.
It’s in the ALP’s best interest to make the hard decisions now while they’re a fresh government and voter tiredness hasn’t set in. They won’t have the balls to ‘tighten the caps’ when the voters inevitably get sick of Kevin Rudd’s face on their TV screens in 4 to 5 years time.
It’s false to think that we’ll “make the scheme better for the environment down the track” – why not get it right the first time?
Precisely
You seemed to assume that what he wrote was true and you seemed to misconstrue Gillard’s assertion that Abbott is a climate extremist with Gillard asserting that he is a religious extremist.
ShowsOn
As I said earlier why would the Greens support the minimum? By not supporting it they can still pressure the Govt. for more.
Not to mention possibly send those generators packing and leave us with no power. Unless of course that is the aim of the Greens…
Prove it
What revelation? This was an assertion made by climate deniers in the Liberal party that the Greens then jumped on. They were rejected by Wong based on advice provided by her department.
Hey Dio I am trying to see if you are saying something important. Can you point to the post in which Chris Curtis says that the ALP won’t use the word “extremist”?
You’re putting the horse before the cart here. The Greens want to subsidise renewables down to a cheaper price point. Under both the CPRS and the Greens’ plan, electricity prices will rise – approximately the same rate. The difference is that compensation is going to beef up executive pay packets under the CPRS and be funneled overseas.
Polls have demonstrated that the public already expects electricity prices will be higher. They will want return for their money. That’s why the money needs to go directly into renewables and grid infrastructure projects.
The Greens are helping Labor immensely – by Sept 18 election day Labor will OWN this issue in the general public’s mind, as the “middle ground”.
The more vitriol that the Greens and their supporters heap on Labor, the better.
The more vitriol that Abbott and the Coalition heap on Labor, the better.
5 – 25 isn’t a minimum. Assuming Labor wins the next election, what about 2013 when electricity prices are 30% higher JUST because of the CPRS? In NSW power prices are going to go up 60%, and you can be assured the Liberals will blame ALL of that increase on the CPRS, when really it will only cause half of that increase.
The Government will have its time cut out convincing voters that such price increases are necessary to encourage energy efficiency and investment in clean technologies. If the power generators received no compensation then power prices won’t go up by 30% they would double or triple in just a few years because we are so reliant on coal.
Time to leave this forum again.
(I only really stopped by to let you know about my analysis of the Higgins results show that it was likely that 11.3% of those who voted Liberal last time voted Greens this time.)
I now feel certain that human politics cannot catch up with reality of climate change quickly enough to prevent warming of well over 2 degrees.
Nothing I say will convince Dr Good, dave, ShowsOn, Steve K, et al to think about things. Australia really has moved to the world of spin.
Blame them future generations, for they should have know what they were doing.
This will win the political debate. After all, every complex real world problem has at least one simple, easy to understand, wrong answer.
All hope is lost
No need to respond as I’m going to leave Crikey for a while. This running around in circles is just too depressing.
(Email michaelcpe@yahoo.com.au if you have an serious questions about my analysis of the Higgins results.)
SO
No. I said Chris was wRONg. Labor will use the word “extremist” frequently about Abbott on many topics; CC, WorkChoices, asylum seekers, etc etc.
No, you’re ignoring the realities of current electricity suppliers possibly pissing off and leaving us without power if it is no longer economical for them
Oh good grief
That’s exactly what Abbott, Minchin, Joyce and Co are saying about CC. If Labor doesn’t form government THEY will.
Michael Wilbur-Ham – It’s not us you have to convince, it’s the bloody politicians.
oh, my heart is broken. anything i said?
I have over many days for the anti-CPRS campaigners here to point out what is wrong with it. So far we have 1) the low targets (which most of us realise will get ramped up seriously anyway) , 2) the unfairness of giving away money now (i agree but that is a secondary issue to saving the planet) and 3) some vague idea that some generic compensation will have to be paid to all polluters when targets are ramped up in the future (involving a technical legal point that the government is on record as rejecting on legal advice).
Even if the government’s lawyers are wrong and some polluter tries a class action in 2018 when the government of the day ramps up 5-10 year targets seriously over 50% I don’t think the government is going to have much trouble passing laws to cancel that. What do you think the climate, sea-level, reefs, fisheries and public opinion are going to be like then?
Short of a DD and Labor being returned I’m not convinced we will get an ETS.
SO
On radio I heard Penny Wong say that Australia might go higher than 25% if there is an international agreement.
Unless the advice was tabled it can’t be ruled out that there is contrary advice to that position. People should always be sceptical of governments who claim they have legal advice supporting their position.
Alas, this is the fine line between Labor hacks and Green hacks. There is no way to prove that the Greens didn’t vote the CPRS down for political gain but voted it down based on the policy being actually bad for dealing with climate change. Labor hacks will always see it as the former, Greens hacks will see it as the latter.
I guess we’ll have to see what comes out of Copenhagen. If the political consensus comes out anywhere near the scientific consensus and the ALP’s CPRS shows up as worse than weak, but actually negative in its impact on climate change, then maybe the CPRS won’t look so rosy to the Australian public in February after all but will be quietly beefed up.
I personally believe we’ll see the same CPRS in February because the Labor government needs to pay off its lobby groups. Here’s to it being blocked again.
That doesn’t solve anything. By 2020 we will need 30% more generation capacity than we have now. We need those coal generators to stay open else we simply won’t have enough capacity. We need to milk them with a low tax so we can fund new clean projects. The Greens seem to think we should just tax the coal generators to the hilt so they just shut down, and then we replace that capacity with clean generation.
The problem is obvious, all that would achieve is a substitution, when we actually will need 30% more capacity by the end of the next decade.
As if anyone cares, you came here for a couple of days to do what? I don’t know. Complain about people talking politics?
On that we can agree. We need a new DD.
Looks like the good missionary has given up on us savages.
Yep. We’ll do that. Thanks.
Has he got tabs on himself or what?
And yet at the moment it wouldn’t make a difference because we have no way of enforcing it.
Rudd to decide on major health reform next year:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/d-day-for-nations-health-system/story-fn3dxity-1225807826997
I wouldn’t be surprised if it is announced in the budget and becomes a major election policy.
You still haven’t justified why passing this CPRS would make any difference to the environment *right away*, as in, within the next 2 to 3 years. There will be negligible impact on the production of carbon, given all the free permits given out, so the Greens have no guilt at all in voting it down. The Greens want a DD called sooner rather than later – even if it costs them a senator or two – so they can get BoP.
The Greens would rather not empty the “King’s Treasury” now into the hands of the polluter-barons, but keep that kitty to help make the deep cuts required and shift to renewables.
Again, the fact that the Government claims they have legal advice is something that should be viewed with a fair amount of scepticism unless they are willing to release the advice.
The Commonwealth cannot override the Constitutional provision that requires compulsory acquisition of property to be on just terms.
Damn, if only our ETS legislation had passed the senate!
Didn’t you take the advice from the Eurythmics ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GE0s6ETWraE
deconst
Why, exactly? A dd means the government gets the current legislation through without changes, so the Greens having the bop is irrelevant to the CPRS.
Do the Greens have an issue they regard as more important than climate change?
If not, why is having the bop – but no power to alter the legislation proposed – so wonderful?
Of course it would! Because for the first time in history the actions of people that put carbon emissions in the air will feature a PRICE, which will discourage people from releasing carbon.
Oh OK, so their guilt should start in the 4th year.
And then the CPRS will be rejected again by the Senate, and then passed at a joint sitting. Sot he Greens will again be irrelevant to the biggest environmental policy of the last 20 years.
This isn’t an issue. If the government increases the target it doesn’t involve the government taking permits off companies, it just means the companies need to buy more permits.
Tell that to barnyard,
should be fun
Peter Kennedy – ABC Perth Political Reporter discusses the By-Elections, amongst other things.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2009/12/07/2763794.htm
Classic Rudd. Controlling and setting the agenda for the election year and mess with Abbott’s mind. Rudd will throw up so many balls in the air that Abbott wouldnt know which to follow and catch:
zoomster, You’ve let out the secret strategy. Shame on you. -)
So they can frustrate the government’s mandate on every other issue would be a safe bet.
There is something similar with the Greens and Evangelical groups. They both belive they are correct, they have a missionary zeal to convert un-believers, they both have the Book. (Bible, Koran, IPCC report).
Pffft. The CPRS would be passed at the DD sitting so that would make no difference.
The obvious thing to do would be to move the heaviest users of electricity first to renewable energy. Aluminium smelters will have to be built out in the Cooper basin, or massive wind farms and solar thermal arrays.
It is a huge problem but it’s not something that we can afford to back away from. There are a lot of renewable energy projects in the research pipeline – and R&D on renewable energy is remarkably cheap. Given the incredible breadth of research in the field, it’s a bit shortsighted to go “It’s too hard, so let’s stick with what we have”.
Slug the coal plants with a high tax – they’ve had it too easy for too long – fast-track research, and it’ll be done by 2020 if we start sooner down that path rather than later.
That would go against the Greens charter
Then bye bye power
As mentioned multiple times previously, the associated regs with the CPRS could be opposed by a hostile senate so a joint sitting would be nothing more than a show for the media. I don’t think the ALP will want to tempt fate by going it alone again – with a new BoP they can work with either side, a newly humbled Liberals party or an empowered Greens party.
Itep
Let us ignore the practicalities of what politics will be like in the heated world of 2018
and assume that the Green party government of 2018 does want to put up caps for 2025 to 80% but is agonising over not going going into defecit slightly.
And it is hard to see how a 2010 law could make pollution a property right recognized by the constitution while a 2018 law could not reverse that.
I suggest that it might be better just to nationalise the few remaining owners of coal power stations by then and then close them down. They won’t be worth much.
It would under normal circumstances but if the Greens have BoP then it would behoove them to convince the ALP to start negotiating with them. A suspension of the charter specifically on CPRS regs could be approved at a NDC if the Greens gain BoP.
The Charter does not necessarily mean the Greens are toothless and naive, it just makes them more predictable in their political actions which is a good thing for democracy.
What’s a bet that any comment about “future workforce shortages” is coupled with the importance of Fair Work Australia and the evils of a return to Workchoices.
OK, if it’s obvious and it saves money, the aluminium smelters will move at no cost to the government.
That’s how the market works – increase the cost of something and the user will look around for ways to reduce that cost.
So the Greens were wrong in rejecting the CPRS? By voting against it, this is the position they have supported.
Brilliant idea! I suggest we call it a ‘CPRS’ – what do you think?
LOL
Once again, deconst, a dd means that the government won’t have to negotiate with the Greens at all on the CPRS.
Are you suggesting the Greens hold up other legislation in order to force the government to renegotiate the CPRS?
That really would be undemocratic.
Dr Good, again, why should a negative-impact CPRS be passed now as opposed to a robust one following a DD or a normal election in July 2011?
Can anybody spell ‘suicide’?
Peter Young,
That paid political hack just happens to hold a Phd in Political History and is in a position to acquire “far” more inside information and analysis than the average blogger on PB is able to.
It might be that, rather than just dismiss him as wallowing in rigid fantasies, it may be worth taking “some” notice of what he has to say.
Unless of course “you yourself” are the font of all wisdom?
Tony Abbott has admitted he made a mistake, when health minister, by reducing the number of Uni places for health workers. Another “problem” for Tony.
After a D.D. the policy that passes will be the government’s current policy!
At a joint sitting Labor won’t need ANY other MPs to pass the CPRS.
And he admitted that the state governments had increased health spending much faster than the federal government so that in real terms the feds had cut $1.5 billion.
deconst
again, because the government will be able to do so at a joint sitting of Parliament and will (presumably) have the numbers to pass it regardless.
If it is a normal election, not a dd, you might have a point, but that is a good reason for the government to make ANY election – regardless of timing – a dd.
If the Greens start rattling too many sabres, and make it obvious that they won’t pass the CPRS without amendment if they hold bop after a normal election, then the government will have more reason to go down the dd road.
Look, I know that when a Senator gets on their feet in the Senate and speaks it’s, to use the title of this piece by Senator Joyce, a roll of the dice as to whether or not they’re going to speak in any way coherently.
In Senator Joyce’s case, those dice are loaded distinctly against him.
However, is it too much to ask that he have someone proof-read his written work? With a red pen?
First of all, how about a lesson in tense:
Senator, the first point is that the ETS is still around and will come before you again. Secondly, it is impossible for it to ‘do’ anything because it hasn’t been passed.
That’s the first sentence.
I don’t propose to give a lengthy breakdown, but this is a cracker:
Learn to write, Senator, or failing that pay someone who can.
They don’t have to plagiarise, like Ms Bishop, in order to ensure a better quality of presentation, but they should at least be able to say ‘Hang on a second, that doesn’t sound right.’
The link:
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2762866.htm
A genuine question: have we come to the conclusion that blocking CPRS-related regs would not stop the CPRS from being enabled?
It would be undemocratic for the ALP to not negotiate with the Greens once the Greens actually have the numbers to help pass legislation that’s central to the Greens’ party platform.
Noone here can dispute that the Greens are elected on a platform of environment by the public primarily, and a raft of other progressive politics platforms second. As shown in situations like the ACT and Tasmania parliaments, the Greens can be very fair legislative partners.
The Greens will never, ever block supply, not under any circumstance, not if the parties came in and passed laws to burn down the Tasmanian forests wholesale. However they can make the life more difficult for the government in the senate…. or very easy.
deconst
It is like waiting to buy a good computer. An ETS is going to be threaded throughout every little corner of the economy and our lives and so it is a complicated mechanism like a computer. And it is going to have to evolve just as fast over decades.
You are never going to have the right one ready if you don’t start working it in.
The initial one is important to get as soon as possible as there are several really important good things which it does. 1) short circuits fear campaigns (which can otherwise grow); 2) gets boardrooms to start factoring in carbon price considerations into their investment planning; 3) gives a signal internationally that we are on board; 4) starts off various green jobs associated with looking for investment opportunities in carbon reduction.
The Government would have already passed its CPRS legislation, and please don’t go back to that regulation crap again. The Greens aren’t the only voters in the Senate.
deconst
Again, negotiation will be unnecessary after a dd.
If the Greens then chose to force amendments on a CPRS by blocking other bills (which is the only possible interpretation of your comments), this would be undemocratic. The government would have won a clear mandate for a CPRS to be passed at a joint sitting.
I really don’t see what the rest of your post has to do with anything. In the case of a dd election, the question would be whether the government gained a mandate for passing the CPRS, which would be simply whether they had the numbers in both houses combined.
And yes… robust action on Climate Change is pretty much the only reason why the Greens are getting ground in the electorate – otherwise they would be Democrats mk. 2. So I don’t believe that – provided there was a route to legislative passage of their most central issue – the Greens would hold off on the political niceties.
If the Greens doesn’t get BoP after a DD, then most likely they won’t make life difficult for the government – the Greens, more so than other parties, are a party of rational actors.
As you all know, however, the climate change action platform is a trojan horse – the Greens are much more than a one issue party and when they get BoP they will encourage robust legislation on other central issues, like asylum seekers.
The ALP really needs the Greens to get BoP sooner rather than later as a release valve for mounting pressure from the ALP Left, I would say… can any of you comment on that?
And more … (why get an ETS now) …
it also sets a framework in which improvements can be made. Eg At the moment we still have people who seem concerned about the environment wasting energy arguing that we should go carbon tax instead of ETS.
Once a particular ETS is in place then political and community pressure can be brought to bear on the weakest features. … Especially eg targets
The greener-than-thou have a political strategy that is a mirror image of the Notionals and Liberal Right – oppose the CPRS/ETS for reasons of internal cohesion and electoral expediency. Labor has been prepared to take the initiative and attempt to find a pathway to a low carbon economy. They deserve enormous credit for this, as do those in the Liberal Party that have sought to join with Labor.
Looks like another round of wholesale rorting of waiting list numbers by health bureaucrats is about to start. The waiting time targets are a complete joke and Rudd should know better. They just get fudged.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/pm-commits-600m-to-cut-elective-surgery-waiting-lists/story-e6frgczf-1225807826927
Be a whistle blower, name names, send them to the federal Department of Health.
deconst
With the current CC emergency my energies are diverted from arguing with the right of the ALP to go further on gay marriage, support of public education, indigenous health etc
My energies instead have to go increasingly into arguing with climate sceptics and perfectionist greens on the need for action now
Exactly – and getting the right computer first matters. The economy is already prepared for an ETS to come in – the Greens want to be part of that discussion.
The public has already decided for this term that they like Kevin Rudd and he can’t do much wrong – have a look at the flip-flopping fence-straddling asylum seeker debacle. The public *still* like him. He could get something tougher into the political sphere if he wanted.
They already have. An ETS was on the cards at the last election from both major parties. I expect there
…a very, very weak signal that actually harms international negotiations and encourages consideration of a lower target.
…except this incarnation of the CPRS didn’t really have a great amount of green job focus, rather the RET package and the Stimulus package did that. The Greens CPRS package would have a much more extensive green job focus.
How exactly – given the weakness of this CPRS – will this be any different to a stronger CPRS passed in mid/late 2010 (DD) or late 2011 (normal)?
I’m waiting for “Democracy@Work” to come and tell us that the AEC rigged the by-election results and the Greens really won.
Please explain?
And your point is? Let me help. The Greens insist that any ETS must be seen as THEIR scheme because after all they OWN the issue. Well, unfortunately for St Bob and his mates that’s not the way it works.
MWH@424:
So these were drive by posts?
If people disagree with your views you won’t stay?
Good riddance to bad rubbish.
*shrug* The Greens have tried to reach out to the ALP many times. They’ve tried to get amendments moved to the CPRS in the senate.
I can’t say the reasons why the CPRS was blocked by the Greens in the senate aren’t political expediency instead of party principle. That’s not something I can convince you of, the political animals we all are here on PB.
When the Democrats passed the GST, was that a matter of political expediency?
deconst
one at a time. 1) on fear campaigns …
No use getting something stronger into the political sphere (I don’t see how that helps).
All I see is that we didn’t get an ETS this year and the fear campaign is ramping up.
The fear campaign only stops when the legislation is in place and your average voter gets to see the benefits and to see that the downsides are not as bad as portrayed.
I reckon you might need a year or so (at the absolute minimum) for that to start to apy off.
Good evening all!
I just left a comment on Turnball’s blog(who would have thought a Labor man would venture in there?)!
By a twist of political fate, the Greens briefly held the scissors to cut the ribbon and announce the CPRS to the world, but they didn’t do so, because it wasn’t the Greens CPRS, right? Not so. The Greens presented multiple amendments to the ALP’s CPRS and would’ve been happy with that if they were accepted – but they weren’t so the Greens passed the scissors back to the Liberals.
evan14
I guess you gave the big fella a well deserved pat on the back?
deconst
On computers. Where do you think we would be if the industry and consumers tried to skip the PCs and Macs of the 1980s-2000s and jump straight to laptops with video cards and window-based operating systems ???
Getting a perfect ETS in place in 2010 that is not going to be changed is fairy tale stuff
Yes, it frustrates me that Macklin’s welfare quarantining reforms are not going to get the attention they deserve thanks to the CC emergency.
I’m not a perfectionist Green – I just want some action, instead of the illusion of action. However, whether it is an illusion or not is a matter for spin by both parties, and I choose to believe the Greens’ spin on this issue instead of the ALP’s, thanks to the underlying science.
Like I said it has to be a Greens ETS and no one elses.
Gale 150. Well done.
2) carbon price in boardrooms
Indeed some are thinking carbon price already but I hear that the details of what scheme we may end up with are so up in the air it is not clear to companies now whether it is better to spend money reducing energy waste or to send a lobbyist to Canberra to try and get some special exemptions built in for their industry.
And they say Rudd has a huge ego
495
The underlying Science says the world needs an ETS asap.
I still don’t understand how this relates – in the case of the CPRS, it’s the equivalent of an Apple ][ now, or an Apple G5 next year.
Yes good policy often goes un-noticed.
You’d be referring to Labor. They are the ones who refuse to negotiate with the Greens. What utter arrogance. No wonder the Greens are in record polling territory.
It has to be a Greens-friendly ETS and no one elses, that’s correct. Writing legislation is terribly boring, you know? The Greens would much rather pass that off to someone else. The Greens reviewed legislation – which is what the senate is supposed to be there for – found it lacking, and wants something in line with its party platform.
It has to be a Greens-ALP negotiated ETS and not the Liberals – is that satisfactory? The reason why it was not is the reality of the numbers in the senate.
Been there, done that. They normally promote people who have been found to rort waiting lists as it shows that they will do whatever it takes.
And the rort doesn’t have to be illegal.
Say you come in with a melanoma, which I put down as category 1 (which means it should be dome within 30 days). If I try to operate on you next week, the bureaucrats don’t like that and try to make the melanoma patient wait 29 days and then get operated on. That way, they can get other cases done ahead of the melanoma patient and still meet their targets 100% for the melanoma patient, as far as the waiting list criteria go.
The way SA Health keeps the waiting list down is by holding minimal outpatients so almost no-one can get on the waiting list in the first place, and then claim that they don’t keep the data on how many people are actually waiting to seen.
Steve K
More rubbish. The ETS will be the Govts. remember, it was the Govt who refused to negotiate and it will be the Govt who passes this after a DD election.
The current legislation is the bare minimum we can expect. the Greens would be stupid to just pass it.
The reason MWH left is because the quality of discussion here is very low. It’s boring actually.
deconst
4) I agree that maybe if we had a Green government now then maybe we would get a better ETS that makes more new green jobs. But that is not what you asked about: you are changing the issue. I was saying that the framework put in place by have an ETS in law now would have the effect of starting to get people employed in ETS related jobs now. They will be advocates for it as well as starting to notice things that can be improved.
Diogenes (387 at 4.24 pm),
Chris Curtis did not say the Labor Party would not use the word “extremist”. He actually said, “The “religious nutter” tag won’t be attempted by Labor but by the usual suspects who undermine Labor’s cause by associating opposition (sic) to the Liberals with nuts and extremists.”
“Meinshausen et al. (2009) found that if a total of 1000 Gigatons of CO2 is emitted for the period 2000-2050, the likelihood of exceeding the 2-degree warming limit is around 25%. In 2000-2009, about 350 Gigatons have already been emitted, leaving only 650 Gigatons for 2010-2050. At current emission rates this budget would be used up within 20 years.” (cf. Copenhagen Diagnosis)
It’s hard to see how putting us on a track for 5% will allow us to keep within this carbon budget. Yes, we need a CPRS ASAP, that delivers real climate action.
I notice you’ve chosen not to address the free permits, that will distort the market and will mean a negative impact in the short term, and something specifically advised against by Garnaut. Pretty much based on that alone, the Greens are not supporting the CPRS.
Chris Curtis, you should have known better with Diog. Being wRONg is the daily fix he needs.
Oooh! Goody! I’ve been itching for a chance to discuss welfare quarantining. Why is it good policy?
deconst
You learn more about how things work by starting it up rather than getting a committee to write a report about a new design. You are dreaming if you think that somehow all the political argy bargy leading up to a 2011 ETS will mean it will work much better than a 2010 ETS.
I’m not saying “just pass it.” The smart thing to do would be to say “the targets aren’t high enough. We have tried hard to get the government to increase the but it’s fallen on deaf ears. We will vote YES to the ETS but we will continue to push for a better ETS.”
Then maybe you should take a break.
The Labor Party has more brains than to attack Abbott over his views on social/moral issues, which are shared by many voters. We leave that to the Greens and various freelancers. Labor will attack over WorkChoices and climate change.
(In fact Abbott is not a “religious nutter” – he’s a perfectly orthodox Catholic. He just has the courage to state Catholic positions accurately rather than fudge them as most Catholics do. He only sounds extreme because we are so unused to hearing Catholic views stated bluntly.)
I don’t know if this has been discussed already, but I’ll post it here anyway….
From Possum’s Pollytics: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/12/07/essential-report-abbott-vs-rudd/
Well, isn’t that interesting… 80% of Greens voters agree with the Greens position. And if you look at the table, you can see that 17% of the electorate agree with the Greens position – so that means a fair few Labor and Liberal supporters agree with the Greens position.
I hope we can now put to rest the rubbish about the Greens position not being supported…
Yes, definitely!
Of course he’s getting bashed by the Young Liberals and the sceptic non-believers!
But an equal number of supportive comments too for Malcopops!
Scorpio – 467
I am assuming the paid political hack referred to by you is the same political hack I referred to. I am not sure what “inside information” he has into the hearts and minds and likely voting intentions of the constituents of Balmain and Marrickville, which is not possessed by the average poster, so that unknown does not help me imuch. I sincerely apologise for not being part of the ruling clique on this website.Unfortunately I am not the font of all wisdom. The paid political party hack can keep repeating his mantra “The Greens cannot win Balmain or Marrickville”, if that keeps him happy. However, if he has had academic training as you claim, then I suggest he have an evidence based look at the question: Can the Greens win Balmain and/or Marrickville in the 2011 NSW State election ? For his assistance I recommend he starts by looking at the 2005 (by-election) and 2007 results for Marrickville, the 2007 results for Balmain, current published opinion polling for NSW state elections and the research carried out by (oh I forget his/her name now) on the Higgins by-election. For qualitative research, he might examine the parlous state of the NSW Government, led currently by Kristina “I’m not a puppet” Keneally. After he has done the research, and analysed it, he may care to get back to me and inform me of his opinion. Until then I suspect his mantra is just more party political spin.
Steve K
No, that would be a dumb thing to do. That’s what they can expect from not moving at all. It is what will most likely happen regardless. The best thing for them to do is wait and after the next election try and get it better. However, most likely, the Govt will just pass it after a joint sitting.
However, we’ve seen what happens with free-permit ETSes in Europe and northeastern-US – a mistake that Garnaut is eager to not have repeated in Australia.
We know already based on other economies’ responses to an ETS what sort of things to expect. To expect that we need ‘training wheels’ on our ETS does not give the free market much credit.
The Greens are fighting the central issue of their party with one hand tied behind their back so there’s a lot of hopping about the boxing ring, but there’s really nothing the Greens can do on this issue until they can help get something closer to what they want passed.
Oh, has anyone written a detailed analysis on the potential outcomes of a DD and a joint sitting on the CPRS, specifically on regulations and investigated whether the ALP will continue to need senate support following a DD?
Really? You did spectacularly badly on the weekend!
Chris
“The “religious nutter” tag won’t be attempted by Labor but by the usual suspects who undermine Labor’s cause by associating opposition (sic) to the Liberals with nuts and extremists.”
Can you explain what that actually means? Who is associating opposition to the Liberals with nuts and extremists? Wouldn’t a Liberal do that? So why would a Liberal use the “religious nutter” tag.
deconst
At a joint sitting Labor will easily be able to pass whatever they like.
How so? Putting the hype aside – it was a pretty much ‘slightly better than 2007′ outcome. Sure, it’s not great, it’s not really that good either, but it’s not bad.
I think the Greens rather enjoyed being in the media limelight for one evening, and it went to their heads somewhat. Gosh we’re so starved of media attention unlike Malcolm “bullshit” backbencher Turnbull.
I find the Greens on this blog boring, they have nothing to add to the political debate in our country. They are led by a guy who is 65 years old, who has achieved nothing, in a legislative sense. His annointed leader when he retires is a staffer, who lost her seat in the Tas. parliament.
The guy is a fraud, who calls for donation to pay his legal fees. Yet he can find (to quote Dick Smith) a significent amount of money to pay Somali blackmailers (which could result in more Australians being kidnapped).
He appeals to the guilty concience of inner city concrete kids, with the occasional news grab. Fortunately for him most are forgotten.
I will bite my tongue. Bob Brown is a fraud, Christine Milne is a bore, Ludlam is the twitter twit, Hansen-Young makes no sense and Seiwert can not tell the difference between coral spawning and an oil slick.
But of course they should all be taken seriously, because they read “the science”.
What’s the feeling of PB? Given a DD, and if the Greens gain sole BoP, would ALP force the CPRS through on a joint sitting or use the newly configured senate to come to an understanding with the Greens on some other platforms central to ALP party members, eg. defense, that potentially the Greens would be hostile to?
I’m sure there are strong reasons for why there have been multiple DDs but only one joint sitting in Australian parliamentary history – perhaps the joint sitting is unpalatable to other political actors?
ruawake, the Greens getting under your skin? Such a virulent attack can’t be good for heart, time for a lie down, maybe?
Pansies.
Rua
Check out the figs I posted above.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/12/07/essential-report-abbott-vs-rudd/
Psephos – 485
Mate do you really expect us to take you seriously after a comment like that ?
If it was an attempt by you at humour, may I respectfully suggest you end your posts with a smiley face or a “LOL”.
Maths isn’t my best subject, but I think that means that 83% of the electorate DON’T agree with the Greens position. Yet the Greens have taken up a position of dictating to everyone else what Australia can and can’t do.
Rua,
That is the Perfect Post – and I’ll bet the usual suspects will be making a beeline to this site
http://www.obrienglass.com.au/
The underlying science is concerned with the total quantity of emissions over a given timeframe. This does not easily translate into the quoted sentence.
The position that the best strategy for achieving emissions reductions is to get an ETS with weak targets in quickly and then strengthen the targets later is clearly arguable.
However the idea that it is the only strategy and anyone who thinks otherwise is cynical or deluded is wrong. Support for an ETS delayed 1-2 years but with stronger initial targets is also an arguable position. It’s not at all hard to devise realistic scenarios in which this position would result in greater overall emissions reductions.
Obviously you’re not familiar with D@W’s long history of AEC and VEC conspiracy theory posts here.
Clearly. A little maths tip: 5 is not more than half of 76.
You were a fool for taking Adam/Psephos seriously in the first place.
You do know he’s a staffer for Labor Senator David Feeney?
Why it is no different from the daily vitriol by the puritanical Green bloogers – and at least we don’t go cryimng to the Principal (WB) to complain whenever our tender little feelings are hurt.
Classic Pots and Kettles from the purely impotent
524
Milne lost her seat because the Liberals and the ALP ganged together to cut the size of the House of Assembly in such a way as to make that (as well as the defeat of two of the three other Green MHAs of the time) happen deliberately.
So you complain about what goes both ways.
How rich.
Psephos
Read the article. The Labor support was only 24%…
And support amongst Labor voters for the Labor position wasn’t exactly glowing.
Heck you can try and spin this as somehow a terrible result for the Greens, but as usual it will be ddevoid of factual content.
OMG. Excuse me for breathing. MWH posts had to be the most boring posts on PB.
Devoid of any humour, wit, cynicism, sarcasm, drollness, funniness, hilariousness, humorousness, richness, amusement, enjoyment, fun, pleasure; absurdity, irony, laughableness, ludicrousness, ridiculousness; burlesque, caricature, comedy, farce, jest, lampoon, parody, satire, slapstick.
as if they were written by an undertaker.
That’s the nature of pressure politics. Remember, at one point, a lot more than that didn’t agree with the Greens’ position – it’s demonstrated that support for the Greens position is only growing, slowly but surely. Clearly the Greens are doing something right…
Remember that at the moment, the Greens don’t even have 17% control of the senate, so really the Australian public is grossly unrepresented on this issue.
No pointing out the Bleeding obvious.
Visted here recently ???
http://www.obrienglass.com.au/
That was not a virulent attack, it was me being gracious. Refute my argument.
I’ll leave it for the Principal to blow the whistle and send the parties to detention when required. I take it with a good heart and know that once again, the PB Greens contingent has once again shaken up the ALP-held status quo just enough to get the ALP Right types nicely riled up, just with the power of persistence and engagement.
Rua
can you explain how the Greens, with around 10% of the vote have a CPRS position that is pretty close to being as popular as the ALP?
Didn’t you know? A record primary vote in a federal Liberal seat is a terrible result! Nobody could interpret it any other way!!!!
Fools.
12% and 13%
Sorry, I don’t respond to that sort of stuff, it doesn’t befit the tone of the blog. I’ll just point it out for what it is, an attack, and leave it there.
Diogenes,
I think I should just give up. I am almost always clear to myself and it perplexes me that I am not clear to others. People who use extreme language to attack their political opponents have the effect of cementing their opponents’ support because the users of the extreme language sound unpleasant and extreme people who are attacking the supporters of the opponent, from which it “must” follow that the person they are attacking is a perfectly decent, though not perfect, fellow. If people on the real extremes start up, people in the middle will dismiss them and what they say. It won’t be the Liberals calling themselves “religious nutters”. If this is still not clear, I give up.
Do I detect that you would be more at home at a mutual penile massaging session over on Green Left Weekly ?
George Megalogenis tries to understand why the Greens did so poorly in the recent by-elections and ponders that they must be wondering if their bubble has burst.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/some_real_poll_numbers
Awww, thanks Frank, I’ve heard they’re great for the skin, don’t you know?
Anyway the principles of non-violence don’t just mean taking a slap in the face. Annoying, isn’t it?
What a strange argument. 32% don’t know. They are grossly under represented in the Senate.
Psephos – 533
I am not aware of the posts to which you refer.
Would you please provide me with the Blog Article name, the date and number of each post to which you refer.
Unfortunately, I can’t accept anything you say as the truth, unless I have been able to verify it.
Chris Curtis, congratulation. You have managed to explain the meaning of life in one sentence whereas the Buddhist Dhamma failed in 15 volumes.
553
D@W` has been critical of the Senate PR counting system saying that it is not one vote one value because of some system designed to make manual counting easier (even though counting is now done by computer). He has also been critical of the transparency of the VEC.
Even then i’d be extremely skeptical. Never trust a Labor staffer.
It was an attack, and I moderated my view. So it is OK for the Greens to attack the Govt. or the Opposition? Of course it is.
Just don’t pretend you have the moral high ground. I have vehemently opposed the Greens for close on a decade.
Then perhaps you should inform yourself before making abusive comments, hm?
Well, given the split from the 2007 election, that’d mean the Greens would be.. oh.. 20% represented in the senate or so?
It makes as much sense that the Greens needs majority support in a poll to get what it wants out of the CPRS. Like the Liberals and like the ALP, the Greens in the senate will act on its members’ wishes first and the wishes of the majority second.
In the unlikely scenario that the Greens gain parliament (hey, we run enough candidates for it so it’s not technically out of the question!) then yes, the majority will need to be considered along with the wishes of its members.
Chris
Are you’re saying that people should not use emotive terms like “extremist” and “deniers” to attack their opponents, as it cements their opponents support?
Shouldn’t it be “ueber” then?
Find out for yourself. Who the (SNIP: Breach of article 2 of comment moderation guidelines, notwithstanding that I do feel your pain – The Management) do you think you are?
Rua
You didn’t respond…
Did you read that article over at Possum’s?
Does anyone else get the impression that Green’s meetings must be like a visit to an ashram where you’ve got the all powerful leader who’s every word is accepted as pearls of wisdom?
I find it hard to believe that those meetings are places of vigorous debate where differences of opinion are expressed and explored. It all seems a little boring to me.
I think that’s why Peter Young and the other one who went off in a huff earlier today get so uppity. They are so used to having their ideas listened to by an enthralled audience that a little scrutiny here is enough to send them into a lather.
Tough luck boys. If you only come here to receive applause for your ideas then you’ll be disappointed more often than not.
I think the “Sticks and Stones” rule has meant that I have, in fact, scored the moral high ground, from which I shower down my radiance and love on PB. Bask in it, go on, bask in it!
If it was following German rules of orthography, yes. But as an English word it doesn’t have to.
Steve K
Did you read Possums article on the CPRS poll?
Psephos – 558
I take that as a sophisticated way of saying ” I wont back up my views with evidence.”
Many thanks…
You would be better of describing them as the official view of the church. Most catholic’s are over it.
Feeney sent you to do some Labor staffer work for Belinda Neal hey? Classy.
Peter, to anyone who is actually familiar with D@W’s form, your present exchange with Psephos makes you look rather foolish.
Well there’s arguments over how organic is ‘organic’, and who’s going to pay for the chai… Oh, and whether indigo gets to be part of the rainbow, and whether it’s morally justified to clear the cobwebs out from the corners of the meeting hall…
Seriously though, debate does happen but the Greens are yet a minor party so it attracts the people who aren’t in it for the thrill of winning elections. Oh, boy, are we not in it for the thrill of winning elections.
It’s a bit different than that. We’re on a relatively anonymous political wonk forum. It gets pretty heated in here because there actually isn’t that much to fight over and it’s so long between real world skirmishes. The proxy of using polls is really not very satisfying…
PB is a remarkably intimidating place for Greens and Liberals members because the ALP-held status quo is pretty hard to shake. I’m pretty happy with that, I like being the underdog!
I’m still yet to make sense of D@W’s claims and every time I try and get him to sit still long enough to explain them he vanishes.
Bilbo, i dont think it’s fair to snip Herr Doktor here. i have seen worse here lately.
William Bowe – 571
I am not familiar with D@W posts on this website.
I merely requested to be informed of them.
The response was basically “f**k off”.
I apologise for breathing.
It’s a straightforward way of saying that since you’re new to this forum, your should find out about the subject under discussion before you start making abusive posts which only reveal your lack of knowledge (and your rudeness).
Believe it or not, I’m actually still on holiday at the moment, so apologies if I’ve missed any particularly serious abuses. The end of my holiday tomorrow evening is likely to find me in an interventionist mood.
No you didn’t, your first response was: “Mate do you really expect us to take you seriously after a comment like that ? If it was an attempt by you at humour, may I respectfully suggest you end your posts with a smiley face or a “LOL”.”
Psephos and William
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%9Cber
Looks like all three are correct in English. Although I think that an über-pedant would prefer über-pedant or ueber-pedant.
You did not “merely request to be informed” – you made a series of snidely abusive comments which were based on a false premise.
Bilbo, if i were you, i stay on with the holiday. these jokers are not worth it.
Who suggested there was no support for the Greens position or is this a straw man argument? Of course there is support out there, it’s just not widespread that’s all.
After you find a couple of WordPress bloggy plugins.
psephos
so how do you feel about this:
less than half of Labor voters liked the CPRS…
Or that only 24% of the electorate supported Labor’s CPRS ?
Here’s a clever trick you can use: google “democracy@work site:blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger”.
Or if all else fails, just find a way of logging into the admin section and do it yourself, and in the process make certain numeric type posters “disappear”
Gary Bruce
People here have been saying that the Greens position wasn’t supported by Greens voters for several weeks.
ALP version of CPRS = 24% support (and 49% of Labor voters)
Greens version = 17% support (and 80% of Greens voters)
That’s a good result for the Greens I think. No sign of movement away, as many here were predicting, in fact it looks llike they are gaining popularity from their stance.
When a word has been assimilated into English, it no longer needs foreign diacriticals, in fact they should be discouraged. We write “facade” without a cedilla, “hotel” without a circumflex and “cliche” without an acute.
Martin B
I think there is a law about anything which is likely to promote D@W’s posts. And if there isn’t, there should be.
The key word is “yet”, support is not widespread “yet”. As the ALP and Coalition parties exchange cannon fire over the bow, the Greens in their zippy solar-powered yacht will get their pet issue across the line and out among the public. Unless you can provide evidence that the base of support for the Greens isn’t growing…
How do you feel that 27%, support one T Abbott’s point of view? More so than Labor or the Greens.
I’m sure they are an interesting case study in something.
Take a look at the polls.
To save you some time, D@W is a Labor supporter whose main hobby is making life a misery for electoral administrators over technical matters of marginal consequence. In particular, he believes an arcane deficiency of the Senate electoral system deprived the Greens of a Queensland Senate seat they were mathematically owed at the last election (and, particularly bafflingly, that this is in some way Antony Green’s fault). Your assumption that you were standing up to Labor bully in defence of a fellow Greens supporter was wrong, and I reckon you might have been able to ascertain that without much grief if you had indeed “merely requested to be informed”.
Psephos – 578
Clearly, as it now transpires your original post was an attempt at humour. As I suggested, in such case, it would have been appropriate to add a smiley or LOL, particularly as it was an “in-joke”, apparently only understandable by the clique that continuously squat here. Had you done so, you may have avoided the angst you have suffered.
Frank
The numeric voter, votes Labor or maybe Green or possibly Liberal, maybe National. It would be unfair to deprive us of his confusion.
It depends on what is meant by “Labor’s position.” If the question was “do you think the targets in Labor’s CPRS bill are sufficient to reduce Australia’s GHG emissions?” I would answer “no” and I think most Labor voters at all familiar with the science would also answer “no.” If the question was “Do you agree that the CPRS bill should be passed as a necessary, though not sufficient, step towards the adoption of the correct targets?” I would answer yes, and I think most Labor voters would also answer yes.
deconst, whilst it’s true recent opinion polls show the Greens support rising I wonder how much it will hold up during an election campaign. Bob Brown is on the record claiming the Greens always lose a certain amount of support during an election campaign. I suspect the Greens vote will increase at the election but it will be lower than what current polls suggest.
No it wasn’t.
Gary Bruce
It makes me sad that so many Australians have been conned by the Coalition into a do nothing policy. In fact they don’t even have a policy! So really 27% like the idea of not even having a policy. Weird!
One good thing is that combined ALP and Greens position is about 40%, so the potential for a deal there is good…
Also there is a large number of undecideds, so there’s still lots of opportunity to win some votes.
Dads coming home !!!
Quick clean up the house and hide the drugs
D@W is actually a member of the Victorian ALP, and his name is well known to many here. If I was still in Victoria I would lodge a complaint against him, for attempting to overturn the perfectly legal election of a Labor Senator.
Labor does not need to do a deal with the Greens. The ETS will pass at a DD.
Psephos
You didn’t read it at all did you…
here was the question that was asked
A pretty open, non-leading question I thought.
It’s amusing that you can’t comment on the stats as they are and need to rephrase the question to better match your spin.
Tell me, are you considering a move to higher office?
Steve K
Well, at least now you understand why there was no reason for the Greens to support the last legislation
I don’t think there’s any need to ask such personal questions Astrobleme. It really is no one’s business.
GB
I just saw that. That’s pretty scary.
We’ll have to see how those undecideds break. There are lots of them.
ltep
I think it’s more of a personnel question
So…. is there anything at all D@W’s conspiratorial assertions? Can such an arcane technical deficiency to help speedier manual counting cause this sort of problem?
My recent experience helping Ben Raue count the NSW Greens MLC preselection ballots taught me that preferential quota voting is not an easy system to count… so I can sort of see where D@W might be coming from on this.
I do have other things to do with my day than read every post at PB, erudite and witty though most of them are.
It’s precisely because the question is so open-ended that the value of the responses is reduced. As I said, it can be interpreted in at least two ways, and we don’t know which way the respondents interpreted it.
Parliament House only has three floors, and my office is on the top floor. I’m quite happy where I am.
No way! NewsRadio has been taken over by the work experience guy!
You are admitting the Greens are irrelevance in this whole debate yet they had the chance to seal the deal – that was a position of strength and they let it go. It seems that I had more faith in their ability to make a difference than you. Now that is sad.
Another blow to the subjunctive mood in English.
Steve K, it’s really, really, really simple: The Greens will keep saying ‘no’ until something is presented to them that their members are happy with, or they get voted out of office.
Regardless of whether the Greens are relevant or not in passing regulation… that doesn’t matter.
Martin B @613, amusing brevity, ta.
William Bowe – 594
Thank you for providing me with that information.
Whilst your assumptions about my assumptions are incorrect, I don’t think it becomes the dignity of this website to be side-tracked on that issue.
Psephos
Precisely… yes, of course any stats that disgaree with your position are obviously unfathomable…
Normally the criticism is about the question being leading… Such a hard balance to find, isn’t it?
I mean we could be forgiven for thinking that when someone is asked the question
That they would actually think “Whose position do I agree with”… And not go through the tortuous thought process that you proposed. But I guess you are the statistics expert here…
If that’s your position then you should pack up the caravan, round up the dogs and move on out of town.
Steve K
truly, if you don’t understand the Greens position after having it explained to you many times I don’t see how we can get you to understand.
After a quick glance over the last few pages
All I can sing is
“Ten Greenie bottles hanging on the wall
If one Greenie bottle should accidently fall”
There’ll be 9 Greenie bottles hanging on the wall
Let me know when we get down to 0
Vera
Oh come on. So many people keep posting things against the Greens. And typically pretty stupid things. You can’t blame us for defending our position.
We love our Party like you love yours.
tell you what. Just so you can have the PollBludger just the way you like it, I’ll go away for a while. My gift to you
I confess to total ignorance of the subjunctive. I have failed to learn how to use it in at least three languages.
I understand all right. I also understand the spin that you are putting on the matter. Bottom line is that the Greens voted down an ETS and are all at sixes and sevens to try and convince others that it was a good decision.
616,
Whenever I read the word dignity on PB I reach for my revolver.
That’s just… politics, I guess. Ostensibly the Liberals were happy with the amended CPRS until they had to listen to their members then… they weren’t… and now we have Tony “absolute crap” Abbott in charge.
You are right though: a good opposition party doesn’t work like that. A good opposition party works as a shadow government, putting forward good alternative policies until the voters think they’re good enough and the government in power is bad enough to vote them in. A good opposition party doesn’t necessarily put their members first, but tries to appeal to the majority.
Minor parties get the luxury of not actually being the opposition party. That’s one of the more colorful things about the Australian political landscape.
Astrobleme, will you be satisfied if there is never any action on climate change? At the moment it looks like the Liberals will not do anything. You seem to be happy relying on a joint sitting of Parliament taking action that the Greens will not.
Show off.
*RW time*
As boring as ALP v Greens part 12,498,905,930 is, the following was quite funny:
Something like this should be put directly to the Australian people and see whether they will swallow it.
“If you don’t understand the CPRS, vote no from the Right. If you do understand the CPRS, you’d never do it from the Left.”
vera, have you seen any of my relos yet? it’s too late to hit the bottle now, bilbo is threatening to clean up the joint
Labor’s or the two Liberal positions or the National’s position or the Greens or X or F. Or maybe Bob Katter’s or Tony Winsor or possibly Oakshott. Does Warren Truss agree with Barnaby Joyce?
Does Bob Brown agree with Christine Milne?
All will be revealed at the next election.
I think it should’ve been “If I WERE still in Victoria”.
Astro
I must say that your brand of greens is at least palatable compared to the repetitive numbnut.
GG
Dignity is not our strongest suit.
I saw a lovely lady today with a singlet on and a tattoo saying
She was going into the dole office.
Why would anyone want to be in Victoria anyway???
Greensborough Growler – 624
ROTFLMAO
William,
Do you intend updating the numbers on the Bradfield and Higgins post? If they keep counting votes in Higgins the Greens Primary will probably fall below 30% which is an absolute triumph for them.
That’s IMO another lie (not from you) that there was a grass roots revolt against sitting Liberal members. We know that a revolt was orchestrated by RW jocks and opinion writers but who’s word do we have that it was really of massive proportions? Those who opposed the ETS all along that’s who. Why am I not surprised. They weren’t listening to their members – they were listening and being intimidated and bullied by a few deniers in their party. We all know who they are – Four Corners made that very clear.
Diogs,
Government cheques rarely bounce.
ltep @ 598
Agree with you, however, the Green machine continues to inch forward, election by election… inexorably marching forward to the tune of a drum circle.. the vote ever increasing.. rainbow flags waving… pushing the ALP further and further towards the center and the Coalition out of politics… holding scrawled cardboard signs aloft… ahh what a vision it is!
A fine and therapeutic interview with Martin Seligman on 7:30
Diogenes,
Are you suggesting that it is either or both undignified or dishonourable to receive government welfare?
Rewi
Dio is easily offended.
I’m intrigued…when the Greens leave this forum in a huff, is there somewhere else they go?
A place with mung beans for all and lots of free hugs?
Astrobleme
Love makes the world go round :kiss;
Isn’t that right Finns?
I missed the boat so didn’t see you rellies
http://www.dolphinwatch.com.au/
The Finnigans,
You mean it’s not 42?!
Diogenes,
No.
I have now given up.
541
deconst, at 1-2% each election – a growth of less than 1% per year – it’d be quicker to rely on continental drift.
I understand the frustration of ALP supporters who believe the Greens should have been more accommodating and negotiated a deal with the ALP that would have seen the CPRS pass. In that way some action, albeit small, would have been taken.
But even if Bob Brown wanted to do this, which I don’t believe he did, he would have just been destroying his own party’s reason for existing.
If he had done such a deal, there would have been a component of the Greens that would have broken away and formed “the bright greens” or the “real greens” and all that would remain of the Greens would be the remnants of the old left of the ALP, which in time would have just folded back into the ALP and we would have had a recalibration of the parties.
I don’t see Brown had any choice, and I don’t see the ALP had any choice but to do a deal with the Libs – which is what they did.
Also, as to what the “true” vote of the Greens is, Antony Gren wrote a piece back in Sept arguing that Newspoll is overstating the size of the Green vote – well worth reading.
Still, Galaxy in the 3 polls they have conducted in the last year, have rated the Greens at 11%,11%, and 12%, and the latest Nielsen had them at 13%, so who’s to know? As always, we only find out the “true” answer on polling day.
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2009/09/has-the-green-vote-risen-since-2007.html
Vera
I caught the boat at Husky once, all we saw was a seal and the kids upchucking all over the cabin…much more success spotting Finns from the shore, which we do quite regularly.
Up that way again mid January!
The Canberra Raiders will continue to improve, the Greens will be contenders for the wooden spoon.
Barrel dweller,
Do not medical practitioners schedule and perform procedures according to THEIR priorities? I know there are parameters: facilities, assisting surgeons and otehrs who have to be available but is not the final decision yours?
Green Left Weekly
Zoomster
I think one of their adds says if you don’t see a whale or a dolphin you get a refund.
You should of asked for your money back
It was lovely swimming at Husky today, nice clear, clean water
Psephos,
If I were to tell you that you have been using perferctly, would you believe me?
The difficulty of discussion on here is that many posts are incomprehensible to anyone other than the cloistered clique who squat here and understand the “in talk”.
Thankfully, there are some posters who put forward an opinion supported by evidence. They make it worthwhile scanning through the crap.
Did Owlman onthe 7:30 strike you as somewhat impartial? Considering the evidence, what choice did he have?
Gusface,
You are forgetting the hidden cameras that our William is now going through.
If people get the irits and decide to find somewhere else on the intertubes to play, why do they insist on broadcasting it?
If they really have left, they will never read any replies. Could it be they are expecting “oh noes, baby please don’t go”?
My advice to anyone considering leaving an intertubes forum, just do it.
The same applies to Malcolm Turnbull, don’t like the “party blog” shut up and leave.
Greens polling double digits, and set for the sole balance of power in the Senate. Oh what a disaster!
Vera, yes, only he Amigo kind. We fight, we ride, and we love
Why though? Why do we have such a fascination in Australian politics that every politician must only parrot the lines of their party? In most other countries members often speak out against party policy.
Gotta laugh. The Green’s big brass band has been moving it’s way down main street the last couple of hours and now the sounds are fading in the distance – until this yappy little green dog pops up again make stupid comment after stupid comment and life returns to normal.
Back on the Bradfield/Higgins count, I just looked at teh vtr.aec sites and see that the vote is still only at the 74-75% of the total enrolment.
Is this an indication that the pre-poll votes have yet to be counted, or there has been mass abstention or some other reason?
Yeah I agree. I think the ultra disciplined nature of Australian parties is bad.
Peter, many of us have been tearing strips off each other for years. Pre Crikey, pre Rudd as PM. Should we change to accomodate you? Ask questions, you will get answers.
Itep:
Perhaps it’s for the same reasons as apply when someone criticizes ‘Australia’ and receives the response, ‘Don’t like it, go somewhere else.’ Or when the opinions of an ex-patriot Australian are dismissed as irrelevant because they no longer live in the country.
Chris
That’s probably just as well.
Rewi
No.
Peter Young
in the dim distant past when I first came to PB, having been turned out of Eden by the wrathful Bryan, I too found it a bit intimidating.
In fact, I ran away for a while myself, having been bewildered by the proposition that Billary was, of course, whom everyone would get behind if she was the Democrats candidate, but until she was, you had to accept that she was the Anti Christ. (Some here were made of sterner stuff).
But I found it was the best place to test my political arguments; sloppy thinking is ruthlessly exposed, poor research is corrected and minor spelling mistakes spawn a raft of comments.
Of course, more sensitive types find such ruthless scrutiny hard to stand, and take attacks on their arguments as personal criticism…which probably suggests their egos are linked to the idea that their ideas are too brilliant to be flawed.
So, take a deep breath, dive in, but don’t expect that the water will always be the temperature you want.
vera, only the amigo kind
you forgot to add padawan at the end
ruawake – 665
Who can I ask whose answer I can trust to be evidence based – and not some party political spin ?
Diogenes,
Excellent.
So are you suggesting that it’s either undignified or dishonourable to have a tattoo?
Gusface – 669
What does “padawan” mean and how does that ellicit an appropriate answer ?
Rewi
Dio is a Lady!
(sorry been watching too many little britain dvd’s)
Peter Young,
Padawan is a Star Wars reference, specifically an acolyte Jedi.
They don’t have to, but most are elected becuase they are members of a party. In “safe seats” the election is the pre-selection. Turnbull rolled King because he found new members to join the party
You just make the judgment yourself, often based off looking at a variety of different posts. Alternatively you can do the research yourself
Must be end of the school year. Class is losing discipline. Posts are all over the place.
Zoomster – 668
Eden, Bryan , Billary ??????
wtf ?
A padawan is a base level Jedi.
A certain acclimatisation enables one to sort the wheat from the chaff,most here are mostly right, normally their agenda,if they have one,becomes transparent.
ps. I have disagreed with most here but am to glad to be corrected when wrong.I call it the pursuit of knowledge.
To everyone going on about tight discipline in Australian politics – it’s due to Labor.
But as it’s Labor i’m sure it’s no longer a problem. Wouldn’t want to go against Labor hackery now would we.
I think Eden and Bryan refer to a website that existed prior to the ’07 election ozpolitics.info, run by Bryan Palmer. The site was closed for comments at some stage at which point many of its posted moved en masse to pollbludger (I think). Incidentally, today I tried to access ozpolitics and couldn’t.
Billary = Bill and Hillary Clinton. There were a lot of tedious Clinton v Obama arguments a year or so ago.
vp
That is an excellent question. The answer used to be “yes”, but the answer is increasingly “no”.
There are now fleets of folder-holders who have the support of the administration to make you operate on “targetted patients” (ie patients who are close to their time limit on waiting list criteria) rather than on cases who are more urgent but who are not near their time limit.
The administration at our hospital also tried downgrading the urgency category of patients who were overdue for surgery to make the numbers look better.
Hospitals are increasingly run for the benefit of politicians and bureaucrats who are trying to climb the ladder. Patients are numbers to be manipulated.
Peter Young is someone we would call, in my Fidonet days, a “newbie twonk”.
weird things are happening with my PB access.
No.
How many Green hackery MPs supported serious negotiation with Rudd, rather than backing 100% of nothing (as opposed to 80% of something)?
Can’t trust those Green hacks.
Peter young
that is the wrong question.
Ask us all and see who answers best with most evidence
Sorry Peter…you are obviously Young (and a double apology for that atrocious pun).
Bryan Palmer as Ozpolitics used to have comments threads like these, and many of us started our blogging lives over there. He shut it down after a couple of hysterical types started threatening to sue each other, and created a raft of blogging refugees, most of whom drifted over here eventually.
Billary – as you really should realise, it’s a common blog term – is Hillary Clinton. Once upon a time, the suggestion that she might actually be a good choice for POTUS would have had you run off the reservation in very short order here.
You’ll be asking what wRONg means next…we really should have a primer for new bloggers attached to the site…
nothing wrong with mung beans and free hugs
Depends on the question.
Diogenes,
Also excellent.
So there was no irony involved in that story at all.
I can only assume that you were pointing out the cost of honour and dignity, and that it sometimes means living in poverty.
689
did I say there was? I said I was intrigued!
Astrobleme @ 617: in a way Psephos is right that the question is too open-ended to draw concrete conclusions.
Another way of looking at the responses is that 41% of polled respondents want action on climate change (the greens and government’s positions), while 27% want no action on climate change (currently Abbott’s position).
Peter Young, obviously you are much older than younger. So i forgive you.
On PB we live and die by the Amigo Creed: We ride, we fight and we love. Especially for the 3 Amigos, but we do extend that occasionally to the other bludgers on a case by case basis.
We do indeed have to have mung beans these
days as tofu is increasingly genetically modified
soya
689,
Depends how long after the consumption of mung beans the hug is applied.
PeterYoung@656:
Peter, I am relatively new on the board. It is a difficult board to follow at first, and as said above, many posters have known each other for years, and of course speak in a sort of shorthand.
This is what humans do. If you go to a rural village, don’t expect to understand the locals straight away, nor to be welcomed by them. You are a blow in, you may well blow out. As with the greens would be MP drive-by poster who took his marbles and went home just recently.
In looking through the 2007 posts resurrected by Possum Comitatus on his blog, Pollytics (well worth visiting every day), what struck me were how few posters I recognised from here or Poss’s blog.
Thus there are some rusted on supporters of PB, and there are people who come for a while and then disappear.
I have gradually found it to be an important part of my day. Eventually you cotton on to what is going on, and the people who are worth reading, and those who are not. There are some here who I read with great interest, and others I slide right by. That too is the nature of the human condition.
Some are “difficult” but worth reading. Psephos (aka Adam) gives me the impression that he is condescending and thinks he is dog’s gift to the world. This haughty and patronising attitude I find irritating in the extreme. But he is very knowledgeable, and thus worth reading. Grit your teeth and look for the information.
Some here are a delight, and others are difficult and you would never want to meet them.
Stay or go, your choice. No one will care pretty much, either way.
Just like real life.
The Government has taken advantage of Mr Turnbull’s blog, as of course they should:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/07/2764397.htm
I think Rudd should take notice not of the 2PP or PPM numbers- they are more than healthy. Its the ETS numbers and the no. of undecideds that could be an issue. A scare campaign could lead to alot of them breaking against the govt. As I’ve said before we need an info campaign, paid for by the party not the govt (although Howard would have already spent millions on the public purse (ala worstchoices and the GST)
Eden, in the sense used by Zoomster, is a metaphore for a pleasurable state of being.
Bryan is Bryan Palmer, who ran a blog called, I think, Ozpolitics, until a few years ago, when the strain of refereeing dog fights between posters became too much and he stopped accepting comments.
Bilary I’m not sure of, but I think it’s a conjunction of Bill and Hillary Clinton, for both of whom some PBers have a deep yet confounding admiration.
Ask and you shall be enlightened, Peter, and probably already have, as my one fingered typng is exceedingly slow.
weird things are still happening with my PB access. My posts disappear without a trace.
Oh and WA residents don’t have to only worry about rising power costs under an ETS/CPRS. There is also the small matter of Crazy Colin raising them.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/07/2764396.htm?site=news
metaphor
Sort of. But isn’t the dole above the poverty line?
NewsRadio is going to broadcast a daily summary of each day’s events at Copenhagen starting tomorrow at 7 PM Eastern.
Can someone explain to me how if 80%, there abouts, of people don’t understand the ETS, as we arte lead to believe, why 68% are able to give an opinion on which stance they prefer ie Green 17%, Lib 27%, Labor 24%? Does the 32% mean that they don’t understand what each party is getting at?
Zoomster – 688
Yes I have noticed the continual use of the word “wRONg” and wondered what it was. I remained too shy to ask just in case I upset the ruling clique. I guess it will remain a mystery to me, just like the Holy Grail.
Finns
Excellent!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCaRdCQCSuc&NR=1
Gus, Diog had sex change? when?
wRONg seems easier to acieve than the holy Grail
706
There was a poster called Ron. He was not the most agreed with person on this blog.
“wRONg” – We used to have a contributor whose name is Ron. He got into the habit of saying you are wRONg. It has stuck I think as a tribute to Ron, who left in unfortunate circumstances.
Your demonstrable, yet controlled aggression belies any profession of shyness, Peter.
There also seems to be a difference between understanding the ETS and supporting an ETS as part of action on climate change. It’s all in the question.
Finns
Show them the Macchu Piccu photos if they really want to learn about wRONg. And try to tell the real story this time, not the dolphin version.
don -696
Thank you very much for that very erudite explanation.
Simple. Many people may not completely understand the government’s policy, but they accept that the Government probably has a good idea what it is doing.
Remember, the public would’ve heard about the Garnaut report, and about the green paper and white paper, and draft legislation, and legislation, and then the cooperation with the Liberals to reach an agreement. This means the public now knows that a majority (about 75% of the parliament) agrees with the Government’s position.
In other words, the public understands that the government has spent much of the past two years coming up with a policy and trying to get it legislated, which gives the impression the policy wasn’t rushed and that the Government has actually spent time to come up with something that is good.
Fulvio
actually, it was Eden because it was where we were created!
Now, of course, we bow to a different God.
It has stuck I think as a tribute to Ron, who left in unfortunate circumstances…………………………………….he stopped posting becaus his wife bought him a new pc wth these new fangdangle keys on it “.,!?”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/07/2763501.htm
I like Annabel Crabb. She has the ability to make an insult toward the Greens humorous.
Or the Libs say they don’t understand it because it’s a Labor plot and they haven’t been listening anyway as they know CC isn’t real anyway.
I’m no Greens voter and I dont support their hardline on the ETS. But I was in Tasmania when the police were locking up anti-dam protesters and I saw the campaign of intimidation against people like Bob Brown who were actually prepared to put their lives on the line for an issue they believed in in the face of constant threats of violence and imprisonment. To say he has ‘done nothing’ is simply a statement of ignorance. Its probably worth taking a little time to familiarise yourself with a person’s background and history before slagging them off.
A couple of year ago the was a regular called Ron, his posts kinda made sense but lacked punctuation and pagination, to many they were unintelligable. In a response the wRONg term was coined.
Since then Diogenes, being the most often wRONg poster, has kept the tradition alive. To the extent that when Diog is right he is wRONg.
You mean the 24%?
The refrain coming from some Libs that the CPRS should not be passed because people don’t understand it is amusing. If the Parliament only ever passed legislation the population understood it’d not have a lot of work to do.
Thanks, Diogenes,
Sympathy for you, your fellow practitioners and us, the great unwashed.
Peter Young, you are obviously older than younger, so i will forgive you.
As to your question to “wRONg”. It went back to the days when the 3 Amigos Vs the 300 Spartans here at PB. It was one of the most bloody battles in the bloggin history. Unfortunately, it also claimed one of the Amigos – Ron was his name.
So in his memory, every time Diog makes a mistake, which is every time and every day, he was rewarded a wRONg.
As it was also the ancient Inca custom which i have dug up during my expedition to Macchu Piccu. 3000 years of Inca history cant be wRONg.
http://users.tpg.com.au/tjhpnq98//pb2.jpg
Youre right ltep, but the CPRS is a complex system and the opposition are exploiting that for all its worth.
For me, ‘wRONg’ means more than just wrong. It means you’re wrong because you’re on the wrong ideological side, because the facts of your argument are wrong but you persist anyway because you believe ideologically that you’re right. I’ve heard it most brought up in situations involving the occasional explicitly right wing person who dares to poke his or her head in here.
I agree that an ETS is the way to go, but I can’t help but think Rudd sounded a lot like this classic Yes PM quote over the past few days:
The only trouble with accepting this is that we’ll all be wiped out in 2012.
So the Libs are right….there’s no need to rush the ETS…
Sprung bad, Diog!
Rua@721:
Rua, that is not entirely true as you know.
Dio is mostly right, but it is such a pleasure to find a chink in his logical armour, that much is made of any slight deviation from the true way.
Dio is no more wRONg than anyone else here, and a case could be made that he is wRONg much less often than the vast majority. And he takes it in such good part, that it ends up being a compliment of sorts.
It is my belief that if you aren’t wRONg at least 10% of the time, you are not being adventurous enough.
Remember of course that Keating famously exploited the anti-GST vote with the “if you dont understand it, vote against it” refrain. I think its worth a shot by the opposition.
don, are you auditioning to join Diog in the PB’s wRONg Hall of Fame?
Zoomster
do you think there are many implicitly right
wing people here?
Bob is extremely adventurous.
If we do nothing, your kids future is stuffed.
Easy enough to understand!
So the MSM have spoken. Like Turnbull, Abbott has started with a huge bounce. Yes the 2PP hasn’t moved, and the PPM has gone from appalling to very bad, but that doesnt stop the media for producing its second fake comeback.
Dr Good – no, and strangely enough, I don’t think Diog’s one of them either.
Dont sell him short, GB
I do like the Higginsgate post over on Poison Pen – together with a graph of Higgins’ voting history, which proves conclusively that this is the worst result for the ALP there ever, with its vote falling to zero.
No wonder Abbott is chuffed!
But the Howard government promoted an ETS, which means about half of the Coalition Senators and all the MHR’s were elected on a platform of supporting an ETS. And moreover, half of the Liberal party STILL supports an ETS!
How do you run a scare campaign against a policy half of your party supports?
Deconst@727:
What utter garbage. It is rarely if ever used in that way. Luckily, few see the world with a chip on their shoulder as you appear to have, finding a slight where none is intended.
Grow a sense of humour if you can.
OO online leading with Rudd committing 600m to cut elective surgery waiting lists. Huh? A positive story about the government. Take it down at once!
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/pm-commits-600m-to-cut-elective-surgery-waiting-lists/story-e6frgczf-1225807826927
BBC is showing important sessions of HopingHagen CC LIVE!!!!!
finns
I hope they get their feed right,or we will be seeing a different sort of live act.
GB@734:
I agree, sometimes people can overdo it. I keep my mistakes to myself as much as possible, and I wish Bob would do the same.
Finns@732:
I fear I have a long way to go before I can hope to aspire to such lofty heights.
Have posted by disappointment on Shamaham’s article. I encourage others to do likewise
Dio
apropos earlier discussion re who was first: Thatcher or Gough
this might help
[Appointed Minister for the Environment and Conservation, Cass was unsuccessful in seeking to prevent the flooding of Lake Pedder in Tasmania. Nonetheless he did lay the groundwork for the end of sandmining on Fraser Island and government protection of the Great Barrier Reef.
Retiring from politics in 1983, Cass is now a Patron of the Sustainable Living Foundation and chair of the Australian National Biocentre [1]. He is an Honorary Fellow at the School of Social and Environmental Enquiry, University of Melbourne]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moss_Cass
don
When I was a surgical registrar, you had to decide when to take out someone’s appendix. It was a matter of pride to only take out an inflamed appendix. It was a bit embarrassing to have to take out a normal appendix (you have to take it out even if it’s normal once you’ve made the cut as a matter of convention).
I once proudly told my consultant that I had a 100% inflamed appendix rate.
I was told that that meant I was not taking out enough appendixes and should be operating earlier.
Don, it’s easy. Next time when another AS sails in, just post that it came directly from Sri Lanka.
z
It’s the Mayan calendar that ends in 2012.
Good no-god…..
I hope I haven’t started a cat fight just because I asked who wRONg was
LOL
Badly
LOL
Dio@747:
Even when though you were right you were wRONg!
Some days it’s hard to win.
If a man is alone in the forest and says something, and no woman hears him, is he still wRONg?
Don, very promising.
He’s especially wRONg because he should have had a woman there to witness it
Teehee, haven’t found a slight here yet, I just feel the love that PB has for everyone who writes here conquers all.
Should that be lacking, then I just retreat with something like http://vimeo.com/7853947?hd=1 and recharge
‘Night all!
Dr Pachauri, Chairman of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) is speaking now on BBC from HopingHagen.
Incas came to provenance around 1200 after someone thinks Jesus was born.
Finns
The second one did.
Grech was a slightly more unfortunate occurrence. That man has a lot to answer for. It wasn’t just Turnbull he burnt.
Provenance, Jesus! wrong word: prominent!
If the CC Skeptics and Deniers think they have wide spread support. Why dont they organise their own HopingHagen and see how many people and countries turn up. The current HopingHagen has delegates from 192 countries with some 70 country leaders attending.
Diog
It’s all deliberate, you know, just to give you an opportunity to feel good….
Incan, Mayan….at least (to paraphrase a great story of Betrand Russell’s) they all worship the same God!
don
I found a few answers.
Has anyone worked out what deconst means in 756?
Turnbull blog well worth a read. Has a number of quotes ready for Labor party ads. Thought he’d wait a bit before lobbing his first grenade…
I still find the whole Turnbull thing baffling. A leader, elected by the majority of the partyroom, and reaffirmed as such last week, takes amendments that a majority of the party room agreed to negotiate to the party room, and then a majority agreed with the negotiated amendments.
His announcement of that result was greeted with cries of foul play and treachery. Huh???
Yes, but it’s all a left-wing conspiracy
Z@764:
Nope. I think he’s a scroll past.
Finns the sceptics are holding court across town, led by lord monckton.
I doubt there was more than 100 in that room. (I believe the Australian delegation to Copenhagen is about 70).
ROTFL: News Corp. is going to send “An Open Letter To Copenhagen from the People Of Australian”, made up of blog posts from their godawful site:
http://blogs.news.com.au/news/news/index.php/news/comments/letter_to_copenhagen_from_the_people_of_australia_the_final_draft/
An example:
…. and that’s one of the more well-expressed ones.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/copenhagen-climate-change-confe/6749865/Copenhagen-climate-summit-timetable.html
News corp have said the organisation will be carbon neutral by 2010. This activism will be a delight to see!
Diog @ 747- you say ‘you have to take it out once you’ve made a cut as a matter of convention’- could you elaborate? What was behind that- you don’t want to give someone a scar on the belly unless you take it out?
Shows, this is because denialists – sorry, sceptics – are too butch and manly for meetings and know that they can’t change anything from a room in Copenhagen talking about something that doesn’t exist anyway and thus are better off spending their time out doors engaging in worthwhile pursuits like hogwrestling.
Except that I think I’m being too coherent to explain their veiwpoint properly.
BB@770:
Agreed, godawful. Do they seriously think anyone will read that stuff?
Someone was saying before that the ALP/Greens debating society was stopping us from discussing the real issues.
Well, it would appear that all the Greens have flounced off now/gone to bed, so let’s get going…..
Gus, His Lordship is apparently related to the Choc Sucking Lady, Nigella Lawson
is that letter from rupe then?
since when does rupe or his merry band of hacks represent Australia?
zoomstar – 776
Do I take your comment to mean that the ALP debating team is still here, even though the Greens team has already gone to bed ?
Someone should do a letter of apology explaining most Australians are not represented by the views and insanity of news ltd.
Alrighty
Just got the call that the other Greens had gone… My turn now.
Yep, you know it. That’s how we work
So, now to stop Zoomster’s dastardly plan to not argue with the Greens
I think his sister is married to Nigella’s brother …
His Lordship also invented the Eternity puzzle
Finns
that explains half of it, but still…..
maybe a toe sucking gone wrong???
GetUp has a day by day of the Copenhagen proceedings.
Michael
If a patient has an appendicectomy scar, everyone assumes that he/she had had their appendix out.
Hypothetically, assume you left it in and told the patient.
A few years later the patient collapses with a burst appendix and is not able to give a history. The surgeon will look at the abdomen and assume the appendix has been removed and get the diagnosis wRONg. A big laparotomy incision has a much higher morbidity than a little appendix scar.
Nowadays, most appendicectomy is laparoscopic (ie with telescopes). They still will take out the appendix if everything else looks normal as a normal appendix will be inflamed on microscopic inspection, but it’s a bit controversial.
The Guardian is live blogging from Copenhagen:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2009/dec/04/copenhagen-climate-change-conference-liveblog
According to BBC, the latest count is 100 country leaders will be at HopingHagen.
TP@780:
If they can’t work that out for themselves, there is no point, they are too stupid to deal with.
Every society has people like that. Some societies seem worse than others, though….
It is not surprising that the public are unsure about the ETS, especially after the distortions stirred up by Labor’s opponents – both from the G’s and the other minority voices, as well as by the Notionals and Liberals.
Labor have to depict CC as a social justice issue, which is what it is, fundamentally. It is about the distribution of future losses resulting from CC on a widespread scale. In Australia, we can readily predict the loss of agricultural lands and production, inland and marine fisheries, water resources and forests; the loss of residential lands and houses and important public assets, such as ports, roads and rail facilities; the loss of jobs and incomes; threats to public and personal health; and of grave damage continuing to the national economy.
Of course, the losses in other countries have the potential to be far more severe, including the loss of huge areas of habitable coastal lands; the flooding of very important delta systems and other low-lying territories; the drying of river systems and forests; the acceleration of desertification; and the loss of agricultural output on a truly massive scale.
If these are just some of the costs to human society of global environmental upheaval, the other side of the coin is the cost of averting or at least mitigating them.
So the questions are really very simple. If the public accept that something should be done to avert future losses, then: What are the costs of mitigation going to be? How can they be minimized? How will they be met? What are the quickest and most cost-effective measures going to be?
The public interest dilemma is that the people who will carry the costs of inaction or policy failure are not fully represented in the debate at the moment, while those who are being asked to pay now are being told the costs are either outlandishly high, unnecessary or ineffective or all three.
The pity is that human timescales for planning and decision-making are absurdly short. The political opponents of Labor’s CPRS are not thinking on 50 or 30 or 20 or even 10 year horizons. They are thinking of the next election, and maybe not even that far ahead. This is a betrayal of all those who will lose as a result of policy stasis – our children and grandchildren. Those who should know better should be deeply ashamed of themselves.
In this respect, I think the Queensland Nationals and the Greens deserve particular contempt. There are four conservative Senators who’s terms expire at the next 1/2 Senate election: three Liberals and the idiot Joyce. They cannot all expect to be re-elected. The prominence of Joyce in rousing the anti-ETS scare campaign is aimed at just one thing – trying to make sure he is re-elected. It has nothing to do with tax or the climate or the public interest. It is about Joyce keeping his ass in Parliament.
As for the Greens, they see their electoral prosperity improving if the is a DD fought on climate issues. In a 1/2 Senate election, they have two retiring Senators – one each in Tasmania and WA. They have a good chance of retaining these seats, but no chance of winning more seats, nor of gaining the balance of power. If, however, there were a DD, they would have a solid chance of increasing their numbers and securing the B-o-P.
For mine, the Greens are putting electoral advantage ahead of their scruples, just as the Notionals are. They deserve to be condemned for their obstruction and distortions.
You know what the most disturbing thing is? These sort of cretins have no trouble with a little four-eyed fascist signing away their grandkids’ rights at work, rendering their future as little more than farm animals. Heck no! they couldn’t get down to the polling booth fast enough to vote for the little rodent to have another go.
Yet come a new Prime Minister along, who returns pay and conditions to their grandkids, and works with the rest of the world to avert a global catastrophe, and these same hayseeds hate his bloody guts.
This is a good news story about indigenous health. 140 is a pretty decent number.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/04/2761942.htm?section=australia
Cuppa
You raise a good point
Worstchoices was the holy grail of the libs and was sold to the faithful as the manifest destiny of the libs.
CC requires co-operation and FAIRNESS amongst the worlds governments and ultimately the worlds people.
The fibs hate fairness in any form.
Dio@785:
Thanks for that, something I did not need to know. I have the large kind.
I would have been dead at thirty if not for the appendectomy. I had had visitors who I could not stand, and in the morning I thought that the pains in my abdomen were a late reaction to their visit.
My wife carted me off to our GP, who took a cursory look, then said “see you in surgery at the hospital in an hour’s time.”
I kissed my wife and child goodbye, but luckily woke up to tell the tale.
I understand that there was at one time bragging rights for the surgeon who could remove an appendix in the shortest time – short time equals less trauma equals better odds of beating the grim reaper.
The nurse came in the morning and said “Up you get, start walking.” I told her where she could go, and she said I could either do as she said or answer to the burly male nurses with her.
I walked, and it felt like I’d been cut in half. I learned later that this mobility as soon as possible after the op. is essential to avoid complications like some bits sticking to other bits when they have no right to.
Tough love.
Briefly
OMGZ!?!? how many times do we have to over this?
The Greens said what they were going to do from the start, so it should be no surprise they did it. They didn’t distort anything, they said they were going to vote no, and did vote no. They clearly explained why.
We see from the last poll figures that 80% of Greens voters supported their position, and 17% of voters in total. That means a large amount of non-Greens supported the Greens position. In fact more non-Greens (9%) supported it than Greens (8%) supported it.
As to what will happen at a DD or non-DD election, the most likely event (according to Antony Green and Possum) is that the Greens will hold the BOP in both cases. Personally I think, as it was nicly explained to me by ShowsOn, that the Govt will go for a DD. This is because if they go for normal half senate they will have to wait until the middle of next year to get their bill through. The only way the Govt will get the bill through without having to negotiate with the Greens (assuming all the Libs stick together and say no) is if they go DD and do a joint sitting. The Govt won’t want to negotiate with the Greens as any movement towards the Greens will give too much kudos to the Greens ad will give the Coalition plenty of ammo. This is about the Govt playing to it’s own advantage – the Greens will only be able to take an opportunity to improve the legislation if the Govt allows it. And the Govt won’t.
briefly @ 789, if the following statements are true:
and
In which States do you see the Conservative parties (ie non Labor or Green) picking up 4 of the 6 Senate spots in a half Senate election?
‘Cause there would have to be two States or the Libs sweeping the ACT or the NT.
don
It’s only true in the short-term, as you found out. Long-term it makes no difference.
Early mobilising helps reduce the chance of a DVT.
Ok
I’ll say it.
I like Kevin Rudd.
I like what he did over the Oceanic Viking and how they dealt with workchoices.
There.
WA and possibly NSW, Qld if CP dumps a bucket or two of cash
Astrobleme@797:
That must have hurt!
Gusface,
I can understand that, as Liberals, they are ideologically opposed to fairness. But when they go out of their way to support those (Howard, Abbott) who willfully set out to disadvantage their grandkids, when they actively collude with those selling out their own grandkids, well, the treachery to their offspring just about does my head in, I tell ya.
Astrobleme
I threw you earlier?
Did you catch that
Dyno
Ta for the live copenhagen link.
The Alice spings camps are finally getting a clean up so the promised new housing can be built next year
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/07/2764317.htm?section=justin
Cuppa@799
That is why we kicked ther collective arses to kingdom come and will gladly do again.
Nobody undoes what our forefathers gained and our descendants deserve.
I will gladly enter the fray again and again and again ad infinitum
Finns, you are right. Something rotten in the state of blogs.crikey.
A post of mine just disappeared into thin air.
I’ll try again.
Astrobleme@797:
Geez, that must have hurt!
Onya!
Finns, now my posts are disappearing!
Bugger gunna have to type it again.
For that to occur, the combined Green and ALP vote would have to be less than 43%.
It is more like 56% according to Newspoll or indeed most Polls.
That would be a record low for those States.
Vera, it must Bilbo’s conspiracy against the Amigos. i had about 5 posts just disappeared without a trace.
If the Copenhagen summit turns out to achieve more than expected, then Abbott is screwed.
My guess is Abbott will oppose any move to ratify the Copenhagen Treaty.
Astrobleme
I threw you earlier?
Did you catch that
Dyno
thanks for the live link to Copenhagen
Good to see the town camps at Alice Springs are getting cleaned up at last ready for the promised new housing which will be built next year
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/07/2764317.htm?section=justin
luke
conjecture is a wonderful thing.
I suspect the west would suffer a scare campaign like no other.Qld would suffer the same fate but perhaps more saturation on the ground.
NSW sadly is a basket case. anything could and will happen
Finns I reposted and nothing happened so reposted again and still nothing but got this message
Yes the boss is mad at Amigos
Really?
I don’t like Rudd but the ALP/Liberal decision is an absolute no-brainer to me. I figure since I despised Howard and he won so many elections Rudd is probably just the right choice for the ALP.
Good to see the town camps at Alice Springs are getting cleaned up at last ready for the promised new housing which will be built next year
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/07/2764317.htm?section=justin
Are the Liberals sending anyone to Copenhagen, like Greg Hunt?
Turnball’s blog has over 800 comments on it, most of them quite nasty and pro-Abbott(as you’d expect from the Minchinites).
This Hanson guy sure loves to contradict himself
Gusface,
plugging those numbers for NSW, WA and QLD into A. Green’s Election calculator would see the Coalition win government virtually wipe the ALP out. Conjecture is a wonderful thing but that is just stoopid.
If you think there is even a chance that will happen you should stick some $$$ on a Liberal win at the next election. You should get some tasty odds right now.
I noticed Abbott & Alan Jones’s hero Lord Monkton, head of the Sceptics, on tonight’s ABC News! What a tosser!
Surely you jest…
ltep
No I think he’s kinda cool. In a nerdy way. Being a nerd, I appreciate his nerdiness.
But yes, the Labor frontbench is formidable.
The Libs talked a lot before the final ETS vote about waiting for Copenhagen, so logically their shadow minister(Hunt?) would be over there with Penny Wong.
luke
the senate v reps would produce different numbers at a half DD,also maybe only one state wont go as per the ealier hypothesis
As I said conjecture is a wonderful thing.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26450909-5006301,00.html
Someone who knows the NSW Liberal Party very well told me last week that Lucy is so furious at the treatment of her husband that she’s encouraging him to cause maximum trouble for Abbott & the Minchinites.
We saw the first part of this today, more to come!
http://www.fullyloaded.com.au/industry-news/articleid/61427.aspx
Bwahahahaha. Abbott is a tool.
Bob: who cares?
And they’re giving floor space for Barnaby Joyce to air his ‘views’ at the ABC blog, ‘Unleashed’.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2762866.htm#comments
It’s their ABC.
820
The larger vehicles that can cut emissions are trains. End long distance trucking.
How dare you, Abbott is the saviour of Australia, so says Alan Jones and Steve Price and Neil Mitchell. How can the shockjocks be wrong?
See, there’s your problem
evan, not you, so why reply?
Got to be kidding me…
OK, but only after my new digital radio is delivered tomorrow.
Poor Bob, and the Greens are still no closer to winning a lower house seat!
luke, I think Labor can win 3 seats in each State (though there is a chance they could win a fourth seat is SA, where the Green vote is weak and the X-factor will eat into the Liberal vote.) The greens will do well to hold their seats. F will lose his seat to Labor. In this case, the Senate will be divided
Labor 36
L/NP 34
Green 5
X 1
If Labor win 4 in SA, then the split will be
Labor 37
L/NP 33
Green 5
X 1
If the Greens lose their WA seat to the Liberals, the split will be:
Labor 37
L/NP 34
Green 4
X 1
So yes….Labor would need the support of the Greens or the Opposition to pass its bills, but the situation would be much tighter than it now is.
818 bob. News and “defence” lawyers are dreaming. They wont get to first base trying to question Rann about his “relationship” with MC. Its just not relevant to whether former hubbie wacked Rann. Its just publicity seeking. Michell and Richard seem to have the same purpose at present – could be well suited.
*Back from RW*
We see what a diabolical pickle the Libs have now got themselves in over climate. Every time Abbott announces any climate policy, Rudd or Wong or whoever will just read out this sentence: “The Liberal Party is currently led by people whose conviction on climate change is that it is “crap” and you don’t need to do anything about it. Any policy that is announced will simply be a con, an environmental figleaf to cover a determination to do nothing.” Those, Mr Speaker, are not my words, they are the words of the Hon Member for Wentworth, Mr Turnbull, who was environment minister in the Howard government.
at last we agree on something, bob
Evan, you dont need the Libs to tell you. i told you so.
I’m still laughing about Joyce as Shadow Finance Minister! Either the Mad Monk has a sense of humour or he’s been forced by Minchin to reward this peanut from Hicksville with a plum portfolio.
828
Digital radios can travel by train. I am not talking about ending trucking to remote areas but just eliminating it from the major routes where trains are more efficient (when done properly).
Finns: Like you, I have my sources!
830 Briefly. You’ve got no idea in your assessment of Senate vote in SA.
Laura Tingle on Philip Adams.
Laura echoes my constantly expressed notions.
Which I recast more or less as follows.
Kevin, get back to the world of Australia, no matter how worthy your other endeavours.
Lots of things to deal with. Absent from the wheel, thus seen to be absent from our hearts and minds. Bit of stuff lacking in definition, eg the hospitals, the deficit etc.
(Kev, definitely absent according to CW’s mind).
841 – make that 833 Briefly
Apologies for the disappearing posts. Should be okay now.
What about the old:
Wakefield…..I was just looking at the numbers….what is the close-up perspective?
That Hanson guy should stick to the science & scientific stuffs. He was much more convincing than his “simple” carbon tax idea that would trigger global tariff war.
850 – now make it 840 Briefly – numbers are shifting??
Well apparently the World Trade Organisation says that carbon tariffs wouldn’t breach international trading treaties provided the money raised is spent on carbon abatement.
I presume then Briefly, that you withdraw your contention that the Greens are opposing the ETS to force a DD and give themselves a chance of winning BOP.
lol W….i am a bit too tired for this….what will happen in SA?
830
The ALP has practically no chance of winning 4 seats in one state at a half-Senate election. They would have to get 57.14% including a very lucky fluke with preferences to overtake the Libs or Greens with their surplus after getting three Senators in their own right.
I think we all agree the Liberals are morally bankrupt and don’t deserve government.
Agreed
Gee that’s a relief… I guess the countries on the receiving end of such tariffs would just cop it sweet then…
Not entirely, luke…..they would do a lot better in a DD than a 1/2 Senate election….7.69% for a quota, rather than 12.98%….In a 1/2 Senate Election, the G’s will do very well to hold their current numbers….
853 Last time Labor and Libs each won 2 and Xenophon and Greens 1 each. X not a candidate this time. Most likely current result would be Labor and Lib 3/3 or Labor 3 Lib 2 and Green 1. Labor would need over 50% of primary vote and Greens say about 5% for Labor to win 4. Very long odds.
Showy, that maybe correct but that assumes everyone will follow the tariff rules. As the Doha rounds have shown, it is not easy to get everyone to follow the tariff rules.
Well 3 weeks ago Obama threatened carbon tariffs on China if they don’t make cuts by 2020.
I don’t agree but assuming this is true, there is a difference btwn maximising your numbers and holding BOP.
Even if the Greens lost both Milne and Siewert (which is unlikely) at the next 1/2 Senate Election then, provided they lost those seats to the ALP, they will still be in BOP!
The Greens will do better numerically at a 1/2 Senate Election rather than a DD and will also hold BOP.
Maybe there is no ulterior motive and they just don’t like the ALP ETS and as such are not prepared to vote for it.
The Finnigans
I watched the whole interview, and his every answer was illuminating. He’s not a politician, he’s a scientist, which to me means his credibility level is high on the issue. What he was saying was totally in line with those of us who say: It’s not about the politics, it’s all about the science.
You are better than to decry his despairing answer about the failure of the cap and trade approach. Why not give credit for honesty?
I’d bet on an August/September election!
Rudd will go to the people with the finalised health reform agenda and tax reform ideas(arising out of the Henry review)!
Abbott will deliver a whole grab bag of expensive promises, which would blow out the deficit by billions(and wouldn’t Swan/Tanner enjoy pulliing all that apart?).
866
It is very unlikely that the Greens would not win a seat in Tasmania in a half-Senate election. Last time they polled over a quota by themselves.
On the scientific answers, most definitely
JV, unfortunately, the politicians have the power the solve the CC problems, not the scientists. i think they got a name for that, something like “democracy” where the punters have to elect the politicians. i am happy to do away with the politicians.
j.v, one of my friends is a scientist on the IPCC. The attitude amongst scientists is that they identify the problems, they don’t come up with solutions.
I have a go at them for this; it seems a bit irresponsible. If politicians have difficulty grasping the science, for example, how do they know how to solve the problem?
In the same way, this scientist refuses to talk to the media; it’s not seen as ‘done’ by the scientific circles, you’re meant to be an aloof academic.
Again, who is going to educate the public if the scientists take this attitude?
http://www.theage.com.au/national/internal-debate-gets-uglier-20091207-kfcn.html
Who was saying Grattan had become a Liberal stooge?
Those with a foot in both camps, such as Tim Flannery
Turnbull, I think, is like a wounded bull for the treacherous way he was sidelined by Abbott and the Minchinites. He will sit on the back benches lobbing grenades over the fence at Abbott, wounding him with flak. Come closer to the election, maybe in the campaign, he will escalate the attack, so destabilising and damaging Abbott that he cannot and will not win. It will be revenge against more than just the hard right nutters currently running the show, but against the Liberal Party itself for giving succour to dinosaurs and extremists. ‘Twill be a joy to behold.
I wonder how long Turnbull’s jihad will last. Possibly not into the next parliament as he may not be there. Maybe Labor’s strategists will consider the best outcome for Labor would be to have Turnbull in the next parliament, and accordingly run dead in Wentworth in 2010. Just a thought out of left field.
The Liberal Party might try to dump Malcolm come the next election and select someone else to run in Wentworth.
Then malcolm can run as an independent for the Senate.
And it has begun in earnest.
This must be from Joyce, I can just see him going on about the little red truck he had as a kid.
That would be a very stupid idea. Just look at Gorton.
Turnbull would be much better off in Wentworth. He should run again as a Liberal… disunity is death
Failing that, an independent.
I said a few threads ago now that Turnbull could become the White Knight that saves the day if Abbott lasts too long and is bottoming out in the polls. Turnbull picked up some credibility with his fight over the ETS.
I don’t think they can choose Hockey while Turnbull is around as he is a loose cannon, on the other hand Turnbull might be happy if he gets deputy or Treasury roll thinking he can roll Hockey sometime after an election, if Hockey miraculously wins.
Turnbull’s plans I believe revolve entirely around the coming election and nothhing beyond that.
Hansen from NASA unloaded some pretty ‘inconvenient truth’s there. Those sycophants on this blog so wedded to the ALP’s ETS and its false promise that the current fossil fuel based system can remain intact should take note. What I find so bizarre is that some ALPers don’t think the Greens are sincere in their opposition to the ETS. Today I got an email from a friend in the Greens entitled “Death to the ETS!!!”. Then we have this bloke from NASA saying that this sort of approach won’t even drop emittions and you dare to question our sincerity? NO, I question the sincerity of the government, while it continues to prop up industries of the past. The Greens may benefit electorally from opposing this bill (and in fact I am certain that the party would spit and suffer if it didn’t) but that doesn’t mean that we cannot also believe in our policies. Also ALPers you should imagine the electoral campaign of 2016: while the ALP has ruined the economy through its lacklustered responces to the issues of this new epoch and has continued to undermine our water security and environment, the Greens can say “7 years ago we told you so”.
I’ve never said that. She’s still very well-informed, but I think she’s become dull, obvious, safe and predictable.
Turnbull can’t run as an Abbott Liberal after what he said today. He obviously intends trying to reclaim the leadership when Abbott crashes in the polls, as he will. If he fails at that, he will have to quit or run as an independent. When Abbott fails, the Right will try to head off Turnbull by putting up Hockey as an alternative.
My new theory: The curse of Wentworth
Les Bury (1956-74): failed Treasurer, dumped
Bob Ellicott (1974-81): failed minister, quit in disgust
Peter Coleman (1981-87): failed NSW opposition leader, useless backbencher
John Hewson (1987-94): failed Oppo leader, quit
Andrew Thompson (1994-2001): failed minister, dumped
Peter King (2001-04): backbencher, lost preselection
Malcom Turnbull (2004-): failed Oppo leader
I agree the Greens are certain to win a seat in Tasmania at a 1/2 Senate election. WA is less certain, but you would have to give them a good chance……so the Greens will risk 2 seats and likely hold them both…..
(Apology in advance for this being a bit lengthy. It is not aimed at anyone; just a personal view.)
I now agree with Hanson. I have had a growing unease for a while that the carbon trading idea was niaive, and heard confirmation of one of my suspicions tonight on a radio report on Hopenhagen. Poorer countries hoped back in Kyoto 1994 that trading carbon credits would help fund their development by transferring funds from richer countries that could afford to to them. I had suspected this for a while but never heard it confirmed. This has several problems:
- it confuses two issues (poverty and climate change) and risks not solving either
- it requires wealthy countries to act voluntarily against their own self interest (there may be cheaper ways of getting to zero emissions than buying credits in developing countries)
- this leaves the poor countries inevitably dissappointed. They would have been better off acting on their own to mitigate effects. It may be too late now.
- it assumes that funds transferred to the 3rd world for carbon credit will be any more likley to be used for development than aid was in the past. It won’t, the biggest problem is 3rd world corruption and lack of education, not lack of finance.
- it assumes that rich polluting countries won’t try to “game” the trading system; they will
- it assumes that economic policy is the problem in the first place. Population policy is at least as important; we have added another billion and a half people since Kyoto.
- Kyoto never dealt with the question of what was a fair way to decide how much rich countries should pay; they are not equally guilty of causing the problem; why should they all cut equally?
- in short, IMO Kyoto was well intentioned but was neither equitable nor certain to be effective, and relied on non-existent goodwill to be implemented.
So what is the bottom line? After 19 years, we have gotten nowhere. In fact, with some developing countries (Brazil, China, India) now advancing without an ETS, we are exceeding worst case forecasts for emissions. Lets face it: Kyoto has failed. Hansen is right.
I should add that I still want action, so prefer an ETS to none, and thus prefer the Labor to Liberal position. Likewise, I am not against third world aid. But I think we should have thought this whole thing out better in game theoretic terms in the first place, rather than leave it to the economists. these days most of hem don’t even study political economy, so the only policy solution they know how to offer is to make something into a market. Anyone who thinks that always works shoudl consider the local failure of converting the Murray Darlign water entitlements into a gradeable system. It is still a mess, and it now just costs more to buy out farms, some of which were never viable in the first place. Markets don’t work for commons; Locke proved that in the 17th century.
Adding a local carbon tax, tariffing non-carbon taxed imports and using the cash to pay for emission reducing works (emission free power generation, public transport, reforestation) is a logical step to meeting the problem locally of the world can’t get its act together. There is little to fear in return. Our coal, iron ore and gas is cheap and in demand; it woudl be hard ot tariff them out of any market. The flip side of saying that Doha proves you can’t stop tariffs is that you might as well add them yourself.
Economists act like the sky will fall if you sugest tariffs but sometimes they are the only means to motivate action. Otherwise there is no incentive for bad agents to change behaviour. If the GFC shoudl have taught us anything it is that sometimes markets don’t work and have to be abandoned for government intervention. CC is one of those issues.
This is not particularly a shot at Labor or the Greens. Both acted on the advice they were given. The advice was given world wide but was only half right. I now think Al Gore was right about climate change but wrong about carbon trading. Those of us who believe CC is real need to find another solution fast.
Plus, next time we have to solve a scientific problem, lets ask scientists, not economists.
Dario
So many economists prefer a carbon tax. His model is a good one too.
Let the proceeds raised go to low and middle income households to deal with the new economy. We should not focus on the location of the smokestacks, we should focus on the consumption.
The carrot isn’t working so we need the stick. Those coutries that don’t cooperate with the struggle for sustainability deserve tarrifs. If they want the tarrif lifted then they can do the right thing by the people. If a critical mass of committed economies join such a scheme then the remaining countries can either join or feel the roth of a blockade. If Australia continues with its past performance then I could see a carbon tarrif being placed on Australian goods and for the love of Earth I would welcome it – with any luck though it won’t come to that.
Briefy
The Greens were statistically unlikely not to have won a seat in Victoria:
http://www.tallyroom.com.au/election-2010/vicsen2010
The Tallyroom has a good analysis of 2010 senate senarios for each state. I’d say the Greens have a bigger chance of winning in Victoria and NSW than in WA. SA, QLD and the ACT are EACH also kinda possible.
I should add that I think the Sex Party could do that. People with no interest in politics, juvenile twits and people that would not usually vote Green would be tempted to vote Sex. I think they could get 2% and if they prefererence the Greens, as I suspect, then, minus the votes they take from the Greens in the first place, is your extra 0.95%.
Regarding the Newspoll 56/44 result, well obviously my previous forecast (59/41) was wrong. I said Abbot would shore up the conservative vote but disenchant women and that seems to be false.
I still don’t see how the Libs can win, even this far out. Abbott is damage control, not an attempt to rest the iniative away from Labor. The Liberal core is not big enough to win the election on their won. They will have a weaker policy position than last time, and that was rejected anyway.
I did my bit for democracy today by voting in the SA Greens senate preselection ballot.
With him not running, MrX’s votes will spread elsewhere and at the state level the Greens have been getting around 13% so, combining those factors I think we will see a big swing in this state. That doesn’t mean it will be enough for Hanson-Young to get company but it’ll help. 3 of 5 Greens aren’t up for election and I think they’ll be joined by three or four more.
shoring up the base is appropriate for an opposition destined to lose but not when:
* There is no competition from other viable Right-wing parties, as under our undemocratic Two (and a 1/2) Party System.
* There is compolsary voting.
*There is no optional preferences.
Combined this means that their conservative base cannot vote for another party, nor fail to preference them (above the ALP), nor stay at home on election day. Our system leaves no room for the base to give their usual party a message.
So there is no electoral reason to give the base anything. There are other reasons though, such as ideological considerations.
Oh dear- It’s bck…..
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/08/2764526.htm
I think in Tasmania 3ALP, 2LIB, 1GRN is very, very likely. None of the other suggested outcomes seem plausible. 2,2,2 will happen one day but not quite yet.
http://www.tallyroom.com.au/election-2010/tassen2010
ALP3, LIB2, GRN1 in NSW also looks likely.
QLD will probably be 3,3,0 but there is an outside chance the Greens could win a seat off of the ALP for 2,3,1.
THM – just because the Greens are currently pulling 12-13% in opinion polls doesn’t mean it will translate across to polling day. People always SAY they are going to vote Green and then don’t …
Final score from the Willagee by-election: Labor 60.6 per cent, Greens 39.4 per cent.
William,
If you or others want a copy of the official 7″ single release of the It’s time jingle – which is different from the Ad version and is in Stereo to boot – it is available as part of a collection of RCA Singles by Alison MacCallum.
http://pub44.bravenet.com/forum/static/show.php?usernum=3725630012&frmid=8&msgid=947237&cmd=show
The coming election is going to be a disaster for moderate Liberals. They hold the marginal seats. To retain his urban seat Turnbull has to make sure he is not associated in any way with the mad right; I’d say he is doing a pretty fair job. I’d also say his advise to other moderates that want to stay in parliament ( ignore the current leadership) is pretty reasonable advice.
It would seem the polls are indicating that the Abbot change has resulted in Liberal voters that are more likely to vote Liberal ( who where they going to vote for anyway, the Greens) and Labor voters that are more likely to vote Labor.
It looks as if the poles are solidifying at 57% Labor. An absolute disaster for the Liberals. For the moderate Liberals to survive they have to buck the trend.
Abbott is making a name for himself:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/abbott-fuelling-sceptics-un/story-e6frg6n6-1225807995911
Howard, Bush and Abbott – three peas in a pod.
For literally the tenth time, the others disappeared into the ether:
Astrobleme@803:
Boy, that must have hurt!
Onya!
Just watched this very funny film – and the Senator Charactor reminded me of a certain Senator from Queensland
http://www.abc.net.au/tv/guide/netw/200912/program/ZY8327A042D2009-12-08T020500.htm
Wiki entry.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Senator_Was_Indiscreet
Frank Calabrese #898
“It’s Time” a jingle?
No way! It’s Time is the anthem to the end of 23 years of Coalition rule.
37 years ago, when it was run in theatres as an add, people stood and sang along. Sang along in drive-ins, in streets outside window displays of TV sets, , at home, at BBQs and parties, especially as Christmas & the Federal Election loomed- and with more enthusiasm at victory celebrations.
I hope Channel 7′s paying the ALP & its 1972 ad agency squillions for it!
Barnaby, new finance spokesman, is proposing smaller banknotes and coins to keep inflation down.
Frank C #902
Make that a certain premier of Queensland and add “on every shady deal any real or aspiring Parliamentarian, party official etc made”! That’s how he was reputed to have retain power for so long. But even I have to admit said Premier one saving grace. The Joh for Canberra campaign “robbed” Howard of victory in 1987.
Not that I believe “robbed”! ’87 was only 4 year after Howard’s disastrous stint as the worst treasurer in the post-war Western World as drier-than-a dinosaur’s-bone arch-Tory John Stone famously rated him; moreover the white picket fence and Incentivation campaign was THE worst I remember … tho not until recently did Internet searches reveal it came straight from USA GOP’s solganising repertoire!
The world-wide editorial on Climate Change, discussed yesterday, is Copenhagen climate conference: Global media unite over Copenhagen climate change conference editorial
Lots of links in the above & their through those links.
To add to your “quotable quotes” on Tony Abbott, International CC pariah, the same article has a link to:
Love is in the air for the Greenies like – Astrobleme & Bob – what have they been smoking? Whatever it is, i want some.
zoomster:
Well, it’s a scientist’s job to do science, which essentially is to learn what they can about whatever aspect of nature their expertise is in. By doing so they can solve problems if they want (or are employed to). Scientists always need funding. Give them that and they’ll work on anything scientific that you like. To a scientist it would be solving a scientific problem to say that to keep global average temperatures below X, the atmospheric CO2 concentration needs to be below Y. They’ve done that. But how to do it is not a scientific question. They aren’t qualified to design an ETS, for example.
Triton – I understand that, because that’s the conversation I was having.
My problem is that, as someone who writes policy, how do you do it when the experts in the field refuse to engage? How do I, as a non scientist policy writer, determine what action to take, let alone what is the best action to take?
It’s a personal frustration thing – have had it happen before – when someone comes to you, spends a couple of hours convincing you that there’s a problem, expects you to do something, and when you ask what you can do, shrugs their shoulders and says that’s not their problem.
It’s a cop out.
Faced with the biggest issue of our generation, I think we should expect more from our scientists than that.
To use the excuse that ‘it is my job to determine the problem, not to solve it’ and put academic principles ahead of active involvement, is ultimately just as unprincipled as the Greens putting moral purity ahead of achievement.
Abbott is turning out to be more and more whacky. If Howard lost the 2007 election because he was considered as yesterman in comparison to Rudd, then Abbott is in real danger of becoming ancientman. He makes Howard looks decided progressive.
Not to mention his reported plan to bring back dinosaurs like Bronny Bishop, Kevin Andrews and Sophie Mozzarella.
zoomster, by “active involvement” are you suggesting that scientists should become advocates for certain policy positions?
People seem to have short memory that Turnbull still has wide support in his Party. He got 40 votes Vs Abbott 41, plus 2 new votes, 1 informal and one denied. This still stands and has not been re-tested. Maybe the conviction politician Abbott will have the courage to re-test these numbers, so Turnbull can be shut-up:
http://www.theage.com.au/national/turnbull-attacks-abbott-will-cross-floor-on-ets-20091207-kfch.html?autostart=1
Gerard Kennedy joins the long line of Conservative Reverters, showing his true colors again.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/doomsday-prophecies-exposed-as-mere-fantasies-of-the-left-20091207-kfd3.html
The Libs, apparently, are on track to increase their number of seats compared to the last election, now that Abbott is in charge. Apparently their brilliant performance in the by-elections – where their primary vote dipped against mainly Greens candidates – is the proof.
Wishful thinking abounds that this time the Messiah has arrived, and walks among us.
zoomster 910
My sympathy on that one. I don’t entirely blame the scientists though. They have probably been told for so long: “comment on policy and your job is over”, that it would be natural to give up. That was certainly my experience of the department I worked for in Canberra (DOTARS). THis is why when you see headlines of Howard appointed middle managers in places like the CSIRO muzzling/threatening public servant scientists you really need to clamp down on it. Governments can’t go around becoming expert at “managing information” for so long and then complain when they don’t get offered any alternatives.
In my field the economists have come to dominate policy debate for almost two decades and I see it is the same in climate science. I think that is also part of the problem – economists beleive they can solve any problem and always look for market/economic policy solutions; lawyers always look to legislate; engineers like me no doubt say you should build more infrastructure. The difference is I don’t pretend engineering can solve every problem. I wish the economists would reach a similar realisation.
Perhaps you should talk to a philosopher first
This is why I began my missive last night on no longer having faith in the ability of ETS schemes to solve the CC problem. I really do think policy types should talk to someone who looks at climate change from a game theoretic viewpoint. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is quite good. See this:
http://omniclimate.wordpress.com/2009/10/26/warmist-master-of-game-theory-most-optimistic-for-the-future-despite-copenhagen/
You’d have to say Phillips’ legal argument was pretty tenuous. Let’s just assume there was an affair. How is bashing someone in the face with a magazine a “normal incident of social interaction” or “justified”.
More importantly from a political POV, the case will almost certainly be heard after the March election.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26450909-5006301,00.html
Looks like Sharman Stone will be one of the losers in Abbott’s shadow cabinet reshuffle! WTF She wasn’t hardline enough on boat people for the new regime?
Bronwyn Bishop set to return to the shadow ministry: more “back to the future” for the Libs!
With yet another criminal act committed to search a climate change scientists office for data, you really do have to conclude that there is a conspiracy of anti-CC groups operating, adn they have moved from “confuse and deceive” to “lie and steal”. Somebody with money must be behind this.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2009/dec/06/break-in-targets-climate-scientist
Detective Sgt Banner of Yarra Central on your mind, Bill?
The Saudi representative spoke today at Copenhagen, suggesting the science wasn’t settled.
Now there’s a nation of freedom and liberty that we all should pay attention to.
No vested interests there, I shouldn’t think.
I get quite surprised at how people downplay the seriousness of this particular assault.
Years ago I went out with a woman for a while who had worked as an “exotic” dancer.
She had earlier did a stint in Hongkong and been viciously assaulted by a group of local workers who resented the western invasion in their occupation.
She decided to get some martial arts training prior to her second trip to Hongkong and the trainer taught her how to use a tightly wound up newspaper or magazine to defend herself.
They can be as devastating in combat as a police baton and can cause quite severe injury and worse when used as a defensive or offensive weapon! It so happened that on her second trip to Hongkong she was set upon by four assailants and successfully defended herself using the techniques that she had been taught and hospitalised three of them.
In demonstrating those techniques to me it is quickly apparent just how effective it can be and I would not like to be attacked by someone like Rann was at all!
zoomster
For an academic treatment of environmentla policy affecting things like climate change, see “Self-Enforcing International Environmental Agreements” (1994) by
Scott Barrett.
Another good paper is Self-Enforcing International Environmental Agreements Revisited (2004) by Alistair Ulph and Santiago Rubio.
The first paper explains why you need some stick as well as carrott to make nations agree to a CC solution. The second paper qualifies the first that at first such a “self-enforcing agreement may at first only have a few members.
I think the problem has been that a lot of people who promoted ETS type agreements early on also dreamed of solving third world poverty at the same time. henc ethey preferred at ETS that allowed trading carbon credits with poorer countries. I am not against solving poverty, but I now don’t think fixing the two together is posible.
Apology if I am telling you how to suck eggs.
Socrates
I completely agree with your comments about Hansen and the ETS.
The Kyoto Agreement was the AGW equivalent of the Munich Agreement.
Yeah, it was self defence my lud!
Abbott’s front bench is announced today but this has to be a very bad sign. If Stone wasn’t hysterical and fear-mongering enough on AS, I hate to think what they’ve got in mind now.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/liberals-steer-to-the-right-on-boats/story-e6frg6n6-1225807997148
No he wasn’t, until now.
Gerard HENDERSON, of course.
Thanks Dio.
Your analogy is depressingly accurate, with Bangladesh substituted for Czechoslovakia. That is why I now think we should shift from “cap and trade” to the “tax and spend” approaches encompassed in the “self enforcing agreements” papers I referred to above. They are more likely to work in a self-interested world.
Of coures, Copenhagen may come up with an agreement this month. But that will be deceptive. For months expectations have been “managed downwards” by suggesting there will be no agreement. So any agreement now will seem like a victory. Yet go back a few years to when Copenhagne was first proposed and check what the objectives were. What is being talked about now is so far short of those goals that it is really failure dressed up as success. Even those goals were a MINIMUM trajectory to avoid severe harm from climate change. We are not going to avoid severe harm IMO.
Yep, this will be a major part of Abbott’s plan.
But the view is he’ll be putting in Immigration, Scott Morrison, Bruce Baird’s protege, so it might not become as rabid as it might.
Although, there’s also the view that Kevin Andrews might be ressurected for this job, and then it will get pretty nasty.
Still, from what Stone said, and from the actions of the party, I think the moderates will moderate the attack – but we’ll see.
What this appears to be referring to are things like bumping into someone in the street or a forceful tackle in a football game. It definitely should not be extended for a revenge attack.
Apparently Russian oil and gas interests were behind the East Anglia data theft. But someone on the inside must have told them what to look for.
Another disgruntled “lefty” in the Liberal Party speaking out. Abbott will experience the same undermining Turnbull had to put up with. The leaks out of the Libs from now on will make Grech’s effort against the government look half hearted.
This is absurd. It only means the behaviour is not assault if it is “normal”. When was the last time posters here saw anyone, let alone a prominent public figure, hit with a rolled up magazine, hard enough to get bruised on the face, at a public function? I’ve never seen it happen.
Division Four is replayed at 2.00 am every Tuesday morning, Bill, on NSW south coast Win TV.
If you can pick up their signal, and it interests you, set your VCR, or whatever the digital equivalent is now. They’re terrific insights into Australia in the early 1970′s.
Just one thing that always stands out – in every street scene, eg Collins St or some other place, you see very, very few overweight people. It’s striking. Every one is pretty trim.
And these aren’t extras, they are just people walking down the street.
Anyway, just thought you’d like to know.
Psephos 930
Is there an electronic data equivalent of “receiving stolen property”. The theft was publicised world wide within a few days. Yet several Australian political and media figures saw no problem in distributing the material. Regardless of whether or not they actually took it, knowing it was stolen, don’t they have some responsibility too?
Eric Abetz is probably curious about the answer to this one
Psephos
They suspect that it was Russian hackers who were paid to get the East Anglia data as well, but they don’t know who paid them.
The next step will be hacking into the denialist’s computers. And they will be a lot moer interesting than the scientist’s computers.
zoomster #910
Do it for yourself, perhaps?
Policy writers are typically developing it for:
Governments
Political parties
Peak councils (general & specific) – education, H&FE, business, industries, NFF, unions/ professional associations etc
Individual organisations within Peak Councils – a bank. insurance firm, car company, food processor, ag company etc
Individual parts of an organisation
A university – at institutional, faculty, department level; or for research and/or assignment
In all but the uni assignment, funds should be available or time given to conduct the research needed.
Policy making is always controversial. Thank whatever that, in nations like Australia, robust debate about rigorously researched topics is the essence of the democracy we inherited from England, Rome and Greece. Bringing an open mind, awareness of bias indicators and desire for balance are the only prerequisites for an informed opinion. The worst possible was to go about policy making is to start with a mindset and select policies that fit it.
As a retired policy/planing/politics wonk (& teacher ) – BTW internal & external politics are a significant element of any policy review, development and implementation – I can assure there are, on-line (and have been since c1996), a plethora of policy documents, policy analyses, articles …. all the way to uni courses teaching you how to do the lot.
Pre Internet search engines, there might have been an excuse for not being able to access enough on all facets and sides of the argument – any argument, in fact – to develop policy on any topic. In the google era, there isn’t!
Nor is there any excuse for Waaah! Waaah! Va Gov’min never told me ’bout it! Not after taxpayers have thrown massive amounts at education since schooling became compulsory (c1875+or-). Fran Kelly’s (ABC The Drum) “Missing in Action”, which now is, after being there when I started typing this, and others blaming “Va Gov’min”, remind me of JFK’s famous line in his Inauguration Address:
<blockquote"Ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.
http://www.famousquotes.me.uk/speeches/John_F_Kennedy/5.htm
In fact, I recommend reading that frank, brilliant address, substituting today’s “Climate Change” for early 1961′s “freedom” (then from tyranny, mainly Communist dictatorships). I still find it immediate and compelling,
Let me repeat what I cited a week or so ago re adding carbon footprint info to food labels:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/aug/17/tesco-milk-carbon-footprint
So what’s gone wrong with Australia when voters. political parties and journos like Fran Kelly keep whining about “the Gov’min’s” failures to educate the electorate, and expect “the Gov’min” to chuck millions of tax-payers’ dollars at something voter can do for her/him self? Where has our spirit of independence and self-reliance gone? Why have we spent so many billions on education in vain?
My bet would be Gazprom-FSB-Putin. It’s past time for the world to realise what a deeply evil and corrupt man Putin is. Russia is a state run by murderers and gangsters.
Psephos
I Was hoping the Hacker would be Andrew Bolt…
Tim Colebatch in The Age proposes the report of the Henry Tax Review be postponed til after the election:
Sophie Mirabella, Kevin Andrews and Bronwyn Bishop all promoted. Thank God they’re not in Government.
It’s rabid right time at the Libs!
The flaw in Colebatch’s article is that big changes to the tax system need to be taken to an election, and Turnbull would have whipped up as much fear about new taxes as Abbott will. You are never going to get a coalition leader who’ll give the government an easy ride on revamping the tax system, so they might as well do it now and try to implement it while the government is new.
Colebatch slams Abbott for his various positions on the ETS and for reducing it to a great big new tax, but where is the criticism in the MSM of the Greens’ absurd position? They are not going to get an ETS they like from the major parties in the foreseeable future. They could have passed an ETS, but they’d rather everything stay as it is than make a start. A letter in The Age by a Greens voter began “The Greens obtained a higher primary vote in Higgins on Saturday than was achieved by the Labor Party at the last election”, as though that means they are a force to be reckoned with. They are nuts.
Astro
To hack requires intelligence,so that rules Bolta out straight away.
Third time lucky for Bronny, at 67 the fresh new face of the Liberal Party. Shadow Minister for Points of Order?
Shadow Minister for Time Capsules?
If these lot don’t scare the electorate, nothing will. A giant ‘up yours’ to the moderates.
Remember, Bishop is Abbott’s ideological mother (his ideological dad is Howard).
But It is great for the Government, Bishop is just a waste of space who should be retiring at the next election.
So Shazza Stone is not hard enough on immigration for TA (according to the OO)? This gets more and more farcical by the day. Abbott is really putting all his eggs in one basket in his attempt to reclaim/reinvigorate the right rump. But isn’t it a serious problem that it’s just a rump?
Well, certainly there is more arse than class there.
Turnbull turns tide for Liberals:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/turnbull-turns-tide/2008/09/21/1221935450243.html
Abbott gamble pays off for Libs:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/abbott-gamble-pays-off-for-libs/story-e6frgczf-1225807524519
Mustn’t be a particularly hard job being a journalist… just need to recycle you old stories every now and then.
Well it won’t be a good look for him when Russel Broadbent, Judi Moylan, Petro Giorgiou, Senator Troeth and maybe even Malcolm Turnbull speak out against the Liberal policy.
The Liberal Right is so used to ignoring anything that comes from Giorgiou & Moylan that it wouldn’t even be seen as real disloyalty
for the Liberal Right see them as the Party’s mad uncles…
For thos of you here that appear to find discussion of ABC bias interesting, Jonathon Holmes has written a piece on analysis v opinion:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/08/2764585.htm?site=thedrum?site=thedrum
Kersebleptes@948:
Thanks, I needed that!
[ETS will cost families 'little or nothing', promises Rudd
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,26456754-5003402,00.html
This is a sign of things to come in an election year.
[US scepticism grows over manmade global warming theory
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,26456712-5003402,00.html
When you take a real look at the numbers however the deniers don’t fair well still.
GB
Based on all the modelling to date, you can safely say that ETS will cost most people (even uncompensated) less than the average cost of inflation for a year. There will always be some anecdotal examples of people worse off, if they drive a lot, use a lot of poeer etc. But these are precisely the people we want an ETS to cause to change their behaviour.
On some measures they’re not doing too badly. 53% either believe that there’s climate change is either caused by natural causes ‘unrelated to man’ or that global warming is an ‘unproven theory’. This is pretty bad given the overwhelming scientific consensus on the issue and demonstrates the hurdles any government faces to make substantial change.
Interesting article by Mr Holmes, using Toolman as an example of opinion overiding analysis, which is his stock in trade.
Glancing through the Terrograph this morning at the coffee shop, was suprised to see supportive a front page Rudd headline and a double page spread on the dangers of global warming. They did say ‘the other side’ of the debate tomorrow, but it was amazingly supportive, much more so than the SMH.
Abbott has gone down the condescending route to deal with Mr Turnbull’s comments from yesterday:
I’m sure Mr Turnbull will be heartened to learn he is forgiven for not being his best self yesterday.
When dealing with an angry Bull it is probably better not to patronise it.
The denialist camp is successfully tapping into that nagging feeling of powerlessness and irrelevance felt by many in the modern world
specifically those who are poor in knowledge about the real world, its amazing depth & its enormous potential; and who are unable to paper over the crack with sufficient money or social status.
Paint AGW denial as a chance to “put one over” those know-all elites, as a chance to show “them” who’s really a mover and shaker, and you have a ready-made cheer squad.
Add the self-interest, money, influence and organisational nous of Big Fossil Fuel to all that and it becomes the biggest gang of Luddites you’ve ever seen.
Keenan and Ciobo out, West Indies out.
These would be certified deniers wouldn’t they? 24%? Not huge.
Just because 31% say the science is yet unproven doesn’t make all of them deniers.
Chris Gale 165 not out. Bravo.
Geez those two are poor batters.
‘The science is unproven’ is a polite way of denying. The science will never be ‘proven’.
Nick Minchin has been put into the Climate Change portfolio. Are they serious?
Whoops sorry misread… ignore.
Abbott on Sky.
Yes, good on Gale for his captain’s knock…
No, questioning doesn’t mean denying. A denier says it’s “bullshit” full stop. A sceptic says it could be “bullshit” but let’s wait and see.
Sky said Minchin would get energy and resources.
Abbott is talking about the government being vulnerable.
he better look in his own backyard first.
We’ll agree to disagree yet again Gary Bruce.
Hockey, Pyne keep their jobs. Smith in communications (in the wrong house). Macfarlane infrastructure and water.
Morrison gets “votes for boats”
bronny gets Seniors
LOL
Bronny shadow minister for the undead.
Fierravanti-Wells rewarded for her shameless race-baiting.
Ruddock is back from the grave.
“An energetic team”. Half of them were practically in the grave.
Tuckey will be disappointed. Abbott is risking losing the mad uncle vote, although Joyce helps secure the raving loony vote.
Abbott must have been inspired by all these recent zombie pictures. I thought the Vatican was against them?
Abbott uses the “Governments lose elections, Oppositions don’t win them” line. This is not something you’d expect from a leader of a major political party.
A “transylvanian shadow cabinet”
A “shadow cabinet for the ages”
Tone is not very adventurous.
No, questioning doesn’t mean denying. A denier says it’s “bullshit” full stop. A sceptic says it could be “bullshit” but let’s wait and see.
The science doesn’t cross many protagonists’ minds
it’s simply that for many denialists it is a self-esteem issue, not a scientific one.
They don’t like the idea of people they despise (lefty greenie tree huggers, smooth urbane types, shiny youths) being right about something very important that they themselves cannot comprehend. It strikes at their worldview.
Didn’t blockquote the first paragraph. Sorry.
Anybody got an average age for Abbott’s shadow cabinet? 65+?
Just came across this gem of journalistic laziness from The Oz.
Anyone got a link to the shadow cabinet?
This is Dad’s Army. Someone should tell them that the Wars ended in 1945 and the Munich Agreement is long gone.
If Copenhagen does go well Abbott is stuffed.
I can only find the society of octogenarians!
Is Ruddock seriously going to be back on the front bench?
Shadow cabinet list here
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_zombie_films
What’s Clive Palmer’s main interests besides being President of the Qld LNP?
Yeah, that’s right, resources and energy and a monster project at Alpha that combines the country’s largest proposed coal mine with a coal fired power station.
And of course he hasn’t had any influence on Barnaby and Minchin to knock the ETS so that his $7B+ projects at Alpha aren’t threatened?
Ruddock will secretary to the shad cab.
Yes but Abbott was keen to point out he will not have a vote.
zoomster,
http://todaysseniorsnetwork.com/tombstones,%20graves,%20cemeteries.jpg
Barnaby Joyce – Finance
Bronwyn Bishop – Seniors
Christopher Pyne – Education
Joe Hockey – Treasury
Ian Macfarlane – Infrastructure
Tony Smith – Communications
Phillip Ruddock – Secretary to Shadow Cabinet
From ‘The Age’
Here’s another amaazing bit of logic from Miranda Devine in SMH today….
And all of Eva Braun’s home film showed how adored Hitler, Goebbels and other Nazi leaders were by their women, so why the artichoke start her column with that irrelevant information?
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/abbotts-real-trouble-is-the-sisterhood-20091202-k689.html
From ltep’s link @949 when Malcolm took over.
Aren’t we now being led to believe that Abbotts 9% boost in PPM is something spectacular?
Wankers
Why do they even bother…
Confessions: “an energetic team” is the best way he can spin it.
If he says “experienced” then he just reminds everyone how old some of them are and how they probably should have retired at the last election. “Energetic” gives the impression there’s life in the old dogs yet; a subtle but important distinction and, more importantly, it’s got the stamp of his own personal style all over it.
Make no mistake: this is Abbott’s team. He’s waited a long time for this and he is signalling that the game will be played his way or it will be the highway. Ironically, the very reason a lot of them wanted shot of Turnbull, but the Libs have never been known for their consistency.
Compromise/reconciliation/olive branches/party stability be damned. He’s not thinking about that and never will; he’s not and never has been a consensus kind of guy.
I confidently predict that the Liberal Party will start to implode in 3 … 2… 1 …
Updated version here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ediacara_biota
Why aren’t the undead allowed to vote?
Bronny, Ruddock, Andrews, Joyce, Sophie Mozzarella – where does comedy starts and vaudeville ends?
Keenan, Ciobo, Southcott and Stone are out altogether. This is being seen as factional, but really there are all duds.
Hey Psephos, I resent you grouping us brain eating undead with that distasteful group
but really there are all duds. = but really they are all duds.
Vera, it’s Wangkers until further notice from Adelaide Zoo.
Barnaby Joyce in Finance is one the most bone headed plays I’ve ever seen.
Not that he’s not capable, I have no idea what sort of accounting qualifications or capablilities he has – but perceptually he has a lot of hillbilly baggage to carry around.
Some sort of “hard man” portfolio like industry or resources, even water would have suited him better.
A poor selection.
Stanley Bruce has sent a tweet from the Other Side demanding to know why he has been left out of the shadow ministry.
Was Bronwyn Bishop the kerosene baths minister?
One large step to the right.
Well, I can’t wait for the Tanner / Joyce election debate.
Line up the members of the new Shadow Cabinet opposite their counterparts in Govt.
The contrast is literally bewildering.
Before comments descend into ageism, there’s more than enough baggage from
Abbott’s former ministers to deride. Hawkie turned 80 this week, and he’d still be a better party leader than Abbott!
What does “Seniors” mean anyway? I haven’t heard of a government portfolio by that name.
Hemingway, just feel the quality and never mind the width. For whom the ages roll?
This was from an Age reader last week, and is more apt now: It’s a step to the right. Let’s do the time warp again.
Finns,
ROFL again, mate. Very droll.
ABC Online quick off the mark with their keen sense for the obvious…….
http://www.abc.net.au/news
Greg Hunt to be Shadow Minister for Climate Action. I doubt he’ll have a lot of work to do.
This is interesting. Wacko Christian groups such as Catch the Fire ministries were part of the orchestrated anti-ETS email campaign:
http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/the-holy-war-on-climate-change/
Of course these extremist groups couldn’t care less about global warming, because they think the destruction of the global is a pre-requisite for the next coming of ceiling cat, sorry I mean jesus.
GB@971:
As my scottish grandmother used to say, “Ah hae mae doots”
If you are a climate change denier, it is possible to clothe your nakedness in the more moderate garb of a skeptic, and still get across the same points.
Doesn’t Minchin say he is a CC skeptic?
Barnaby Joyce – Finance
Bronwyn Bishop – Seniors
Christopher Pyne – Education
Joe Hockey – Treasury
Ian Macfarlane – Infrastructure
Tony Smith – Communications
Phillip Ruddock – Secretary to Shadow Cabinet
Eric Abetz – Workplace relations
Sophie Mirabella – Science and Innovation
Greg Hunt – environment/climate change
Sharman Stone – women, youth affairs etc
Julie Bishop, Joe Hockey, Christopher Pyne, Peter Dutton and George Brandis remain in their respective portfolios of foreign affairs, treasury, education, health and shadow attorney-general.
http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1946082,00.html
I always thought the Finance Minister was the ultimate abominable No man in any Government. Fiscal reforms, spending discipline and slaying of spending Minsiters sacred cows is the what the job is all about.
How then does a Member of the Nationals, an organisation devoted solely to pork barrleing and lavish spending on rural special projects get the gig?
Talk about the fox in charge of the chickens.
Has there ever been a National as the Finance Minister previously?
Barnaby, Minister for the financial enhancement of Clive Palmer?
Energy and Resources?
A shadow minister for Seniors and a shadow minister for Ageing? Wouldn’t there be a lot of overlap there?
All Joyce is going to do is complain about debt, in other words, he will just repeat whatever Hockey says.
Remember the lats Coalition Finance Minister was Nick Minchin who didn’t produce any savings in any of the budgets he was part of.
Sky Noos still pushing this idea that the by -elections and Newspoll were strong results for Abbott. Bloody hell.
GG, surely, you cant mean this?
http://tinyurl.com/y8rusme
Kev must have had an inkling of what was coming. He’s been doing some homework on the new Shadows.
From his twitter
Finns
wangkers
Is that better?
Loved it when the STC Wharf Review with Jonathan Biggins and co did that a few years ago
It’s a step to the right… and then a step to the riiiiiiiiight
You sound surprised
Zoomster,
Thanks for the Shadow Cabinet list. However, this has not alleviated my unbearable suspense of waiting for Premier Keneally’s Cabinet.
One would think so, but the government has a minister for Health and Ageing and a minister for Ageing. I’ve never been able to figure out the distinction.
It’s nice to see Dutton staying in health. Roxon will be pleased that she can continue to bag him in parliament.
Full list:
http://www.liberal.org.au/_g/Abbott_Shadow_Ministry.pdf
How on earth are the Shanahans and Milnes of the press going to spin this as a strong front bench?
It’s time Punter wins a match for Australia.
I guess the Seniors -and- Ageing thing is just the Liberals making sure their core demographic is well looked after
Annabel Crabbs’s blog at the ABC invited comments on the new Front Bench line-up……almost universal derision and scorn….makes PB appear quite mild.
No, the other minister is for AGED CARE, i.e. nursing homes.
Hey Guys, this is more interesting than the Dad’s Army:
http://gossipandgab.com/881/tiger-woods-mistress-count-up-to-ten
Poor Rann and Warnie, they are amateur compared to the Tiger, grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.
Interestingly Robb remains in a ‘Cabinet’ position titled ‘Chairman of the Coalition Policy Development Committee”.
Tuckey didn’t get a go then?
How old’s he, only in his 60s? He might be a bit young and inexperienced yet, another couple of years on the back benches to learn how it’s done
Never has the term shadow cabinet been so apposite. This bunch of reanimated loonies are surely creatures of the shadows. I can’t wait for all the zombie, twilight, and undead ‘toons to appear, this is comedy gold.
Kevin Andrews as Shadow Minister for Families, Housing and Human Services. They’ve removed Indigenous Affairs into a separate ministry position.
Australia 1/36. So who’s going to win/draw/tie? My tip, Australia by 3 wickets.
You have to give Tony Abbott credit for managing to make the coalition more cohesive, with Barnaby having such a senior role in the shadow cabinet. I can’t see the Nationals giving them any trouble now.
No, Justine Elliot’s title is Minister for Ageing.
They’re professionals. They’ll find a way.
It looks more like a Howard ministry than one of Abbott’s own personal style. Bronny at one point was minister for aged care. Where’s the new talent?
Given that he’s been off sick for the last two months and will likely be off again at some stage, his assignment to that particular position is quite apt
Tuckey is 74 I believe.
I bumped into Andrew Southcott on the weekend. He didn’t seem to fussed about the change in leadership. He might be a bit less pleased now.
Finns,
Much as I hope you’re right about Aussies win by 3 wickets, I had a flutter on Draw before the match.
Hemingway
Good for you. they said on radio yesterday odds for a draw before the match were over $4.
Confessions, Tuckey 74! geez! thanks for that.
Keenan, Ciobo, Southcott and Stone are only out of the shadow cabinet. All remain on the front bench. Ronaldson is also out of the cabinet.
Says it all really.
And why did they keep Hunt in CC? They don’t let him negotiate the ETS, in fact choosing two ahead of him, bucket his stance as a moderate, kill his leader over the ETS, and then turn around and keep him in the CC portfolio.
How can they go to an election with that lot? It’s got to be a big joke. They can’t make it that easy for Rudd to portray as a throwback to Howard.
I’d have my money on the West Indies at this stage.
And amazingly Tuckey has won preselection to contest the 2010 election.
Diogs,
Hunt has proven he’s good at holding fig leafs.
Vera,
Aside from the nice little motza I’d get, a Draw would pump up interest in the last Test, despite our retaining the Frank Worrell Trophy with a Draw.
Hunt doesn’t understand the ETS:
He doesn’t understand that an ETS isn’t designed to reduce power consumption, it is decided to reduce power consumption FROM DIRTY SOURCES that put CO2 in the air.
Well there goes the DD, Folks! Gerries & Loonies! Imagine what Abbott’s mob could do to Rudd’s re-election chances in a year – if it lasts that long. Next time the Coalition Party Room meets, won’t his mob have lost its majority?
I’m beginning to think Abbott has a martyrdom complex! I hear slow cooking’s back in fashion!
Hemingway
I wouldn’t mind if The Windies do good, they;ve been getting beat up all over the world for the last decade it seems.
Some detracter last week after the Brisbane test was even wanting international cricket to split into A and B teams with the Windies in the B team i seem to recall?
Here’s how you spin populating your Shadow Cabinet with old fogies from the Howard era. From the OO’s front page on-line:
So it’s a “fresh” team, with “fresh” starts to this bunch of has-beens.
“Fresh”… get it?
Abbott has so many issues that he has to fend off, the latest being the Dad’s Army Shadow. He needs many arms like this:
http://sreeayyappaswami.com/god_pics/vishnu.jpg
“fresh” like the smell of a dodgy nursing home. mmmmm Eau de Stale Urine.
Gerard Henderson will no doubt be applauding Pell’s Monkey for kicking those leftists out of the shadow cabinet.
I think you mean there goes an early DD folks.
BB
I bet the 6pm TV news won’t be saying what a fresh new team Abbott’s got, they like controversy, we might even get the kerosine bath story.
Does this tweet go too far?
nahhhhh
And back in the real world…
http://www.news.com.au/business/breaking-news/business-confidence-at-seven-year-high/story-e6frfkur-1225808160877
Vera,
Real good call. It was the Calypso Cricket Champions of the 80′s playing here in Oz which got me hooked (tragically). I was fortunate to witness Viv Richards score his 100th First-class Century at the SCG against NSW.
I believe the West Indies have only won 3 of their last 34 tests.
All the network news programs which I watched the evening when Abbott “ascended” replayed the video of his despicable cheap shot at Bernie Banton.
I don’t really think Abbott was that far in the wrong over the Bernie Banton thing, and I pretty much agree with what he was saying. Would the media have kicked up such a stink about him not turning up to see Banton if he hadn’t been extremely ill? I don’t see why debilitating illness should mean politicians have to reschedule to see you if you want to meet them. I’ll admit it was impolitic to say what he did, but that doesn’t necessarily make him wrong.
I thought they had a meeting which Abbott did bother turning up to.
I was under the impression it was more a matter of Banton announcing he was turning up on day X, rather than Abbott agreeing to meet him. Though I could be wrong.
He had refused to meet him several times
Maybe not, but his political antennae must have been out of order that day for him not to realize how it would be reported.
His political antennae was out of order for the entire election campaign. It was as if his heart wasn’t in it because he knew the government was about to lose. And yet now he is in charge for the entire campaign next year.
He doesn’t have any political antennae, that’s his defining characteristic. He has the worst tin ear in politics. He always says the inappropriate thing, and he never knows when to stop. It is absolutely certain that he will put his foot in it in a major way sometime in the new year.
…or probably even before, Psephos
Abbott being the coward he is seems to have blamed his staff for the “mixup” re Banton presenting the petition to his office.
http://www.theage.com.au/cgi-bin/common/popupPrintArticle.pl?path=/articles/2007/10/31/1193618925552.html
So Hunt is shadow minister for climate action, not climate change. Is that denialism or just marketing spin?
Well, I seem to recall that Glen made some comments several months back about the need for renewal in the Liberal party, that if politicians of a certain longevity were not on the front bench, they should not been pre-selected to make way for new blood, exampling particularly Ruddock and B Bishop
Well Abbott has addressed that issue!
Ruddock!! OMG truely appalling. What next? Godwin Grech back as head of the Australian Public Service?
Abbott is trying to re-establish his greeen credentials. He’s recycling his Ministers.
Abbott’s shadow ministry is also a sure sign the coalition plans to raise the mandatory retirement age to 90.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/23809974/Abbott-Shadow-Ministry-Attachment-8-12-09-1
Here’s the full list. Don Randall has been promoted, blech.
Elvira promoted to Shadow Minister for Ageing.
re Ruddock – What does a shadow cabinet sec actually do? Recharge the electric wheelchair batteries, purée the food, polish the walking frames; that sort of thing?
Abbott made what he thought was a well-veiled attacked on Banton. Something about not always pure of heart, but this veil fooled no one, not even journos.
I thought Ian Macdonald would have done better.
Kevin Andrews – Families, Housing and HUMAN SERVICES?
Surely being one is a prerequisite!
Here’s the link to a network News report from the time of Abbott’s “not necessarily pure of heart” comment on Youtube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjklT59clE4&feature=related
One positive is for the media, they won’t have to go doing research on all the new young things promoted to the Shadow Cabinet, all they’ll need to do is go to the archives dept.
Abbott was irritated that Bernie could put on a media stunt and yet retain his saintly status. Tony voluntarily took the role of the Dark One years ago, but it still rankled.
Of course, if Tony’s then-Government hadn’t been solidly in James Hardie’s corner, perhaps Mr Banton & his supporters wouldn’t have had to resort to media stunts in the first place…
http://www.scribd.com/doc/23809974/Abbott-Shadow-Ministry-Attachment-8-12-09-1
I see Cory Bernardi’s disloyalty and treachery has been rewarded with Parliamentary Secretary assisting the Leader of the Opposition. Typical.
I love the pic ABC has for the cabinet reshuffle.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/08/2764942.htm
Rabid old dogs off the leash!
It’s interesting that this piece by Paul Howes from the AWU web site has made it onto the “top stories” section of Google News! Bit of a backhander to Rupert by Google perchance?
http://www.awu.net.au/258906_5.html?H|19|258906|5919901
Barnaby is now “Shadow Minister for Finance and Debt Reduction”.
In other words minister for banging on endlessly about debt.
I’ve got no idea what Abbott means by this? I thought the most accomplished “retail” politician was Julie Bishop!
She is the gold medal contender for “retailing” other people’s work and ideas!
Jensen upset at being left out
http://www.smh.com.au/national/damned-disappointed-climate-change-denier-left-out-of-abbotts-team-20091208-kgpk.html
Shares in companies that manufacture “ear plugs” are bound to go up!
Time to get on quick!
Perhaps he means that Barnaby is good at being totally bought by the coal industry?
I assume Abbott means that “wholesale” politicians are the backroom operators, with the “retail” lot out front spruiking- and that Barnaby is a natural at the latter.
If so, it is a dreadfully inaccurate assessment.
Seriously, what is the average age of shadow cabinet now? (ignoring secs and hangers on)? It must be one of the oldest in Australian political history.
The govt is allready turning up the heat on Barnaby
And a dig at Abbott too
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/joyce-must-follow-strict-fiscal-rules-20091208-kgox.html
Yes, Barnaby might sound good to country Queenslanders, but he’s an awful communicator, probably the worst in the parliament.
Fielding? Between two rocks and a hard place!
Barnaby is incoherent
I think people underrate Barnaby. He’s capable of attracting country voters of all flavours.
http://www.liberal.org.au/news.php?Id=4282
Tone’s team from Fib HQ
They already vote National!
What’s he gonna get them? Two votes each.
They will still elect Nationals members no matter what!
Err wtf? That’s like saying city voters already vote Labor.
With apologies to Wodehouse, Exton, Fry, Laurie and all.
Love this!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/08/2765095.htm?site=thedrum
Exactly. He could flash a busload of school children and still get elected. It’s the moderate voters he turns away that is his problem.
Sure, city voters vote Labor! They also vote Liberal and have elected a considerable number of them.
Country voters vote National and elect National Members.
How many Labor Members can you name in country seats?
Hmm, in QLD only?
Flynn, Leichhardt…
More importantly, how many can you name in the last 10 years?
Dawson….
i.e. very few
Fielding might torture the English language now and then, but he’s reasonably articulate most of the time. OTOH, that rant of Barnaby’s the night before the ETS 3rd reading vote was too dreadful to describe. Even when he’s not charged up you can’t understand him.
Three QLD country seats is three QLD country seats. They all count toward majority government…
Gee, i’m glad you’re not in charge of Labor’s re-election campaign!
You have to wonder if giving the coalition Policy Development portfolio to someone on an indefinate leave of absence wasn’t a deliberate joke.
maybe his tongue is too big for his mouth??
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Map52007.gif
Infact, Labor holds a majority of non south-east QLD seats.
Mike Kelly
Bob Debus
Joel Fitzgibbon
Janelle Saffin
Justine Elliott
Darren Cheeseman
Catherine King
Steve Gibbons
Jim Turnour
Kirsten Livermore
Chris Trevor
Shane Neuman
Sid Sidebottom
Dick Adams
Jodie Campbell
Warren Snowden
3 out of 15 seats… very few
To be frank, so am I
I said country seats not urban or coastal city based!
Flynn, based in City of Gladstone,
Leichhardt, based in City of Cairns,
Dawson, based in City of Mackay!
Keep trying!
The Nats are actually the number three party in RARA – both Labor and the Libs have more seats.
16 out of 83. It aint exactly raining out there…
Ahh, true
In that case there are no country seats. Name a country seat which doesn’t have a regional centre in it.
Hahahahaha
FAIL!
AEC classifies all three as rural.
What is Tony going to say when the figures come in for this year?
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/greens-mock-abbott-over-climate-claim-20091208-kgxe.html
Owned. Time for scorpio to get back in that cesspit of a box he lives in.
I think he probably believes this. The denialists and their enablers in the Murdoch press have done a good job of selling this lie to many people who don’t understand climate science.
From memory, the most purely rural seat is O’Connor, followed by Parkes, Mallee and Murray. But even they have substantial urban centres in them (Geraldton-Albany, Dubbo, Mildura-Swan Hill, Shepparton).
I also think the government is somewhat to blame. A good government will sell their message to the people when there is a clear lack of understanding on a policy. Instead all we get from Rudd is that delay equals denial and that’s that.
Psephos
I think you mean Geraldton and Albany. We have not yet urbanised WA quite so much yet to justify naming an urban centre Geraldton-Albany.
What bench has Abbott put Ruddock onto?
Front bench or embalmer’s bench?
Oh rubbish. He explains things many times, but the MSM doesn’t pick it up because its boring. The number of times I’ve seen him explain certain ins and outs of the ETS on Lateline and the 7.30 Report…
The next time you direct a comment like “THAT” to me watch out!
I was wondering how low you could get! Now it’s clear that there is no depth to which you will not descend!!!
“Delay equals denial” sounds like a reasonable message to get out there to start with.
justice delayed is justice denied
I suppose Kev is to blame for this too!
From link at Gary’s 995 post
Dr Good, I think most people see that that was what I meant.
Well dont spout uneducated ignorant rubbish and it won’t happen
Dr Good: what kind of dog is that in your gravatar?
But that’s absolute rubbish. How can delay equal denial? It’s purely a wedge line.
If someone delays a policy for 6 months and then implements it, and another never implements a policy because they don’t believe in it, one is clearly delaying, one is clearly denying. Both are not denying – it’s a wedge.
Indeed Dr Psephos, but perhaps we would hope that a little pedantry would be indulged occasionally in this forum.
confessions
Let us see who can guess
Don’t think that putting a smiley at the end of your disgusting comments gives you a let off.
I’m respecting the guidelines for Williams site by not telling you just what I think of you!
You’re probably the poster who was primarily responsibly for making Bryan’s blog so unmanageable that he had to close it down!
Are you trying to do the same here?
If so I’m sure most others would appreciate it if you didn’t and went else where for your sadistic fun!
bob1234
Any finite statement or message on this, or most other human concern, is only going to be approximately true. I think there is a reasonable amount of relevant and important truth in that short slogan. But maybe you disagree.
Finns
Your Kiwi cousin Moko is in trouble again!
He did not have sex with that woman…. YET
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/08/2765057.htm?section=justin
Will Moko get hit with a rolled up magazine?
Wtf?
Vera, Tiger had the Mojo
so Moko should call Tiger and ask him for some of the left over chickadee 
http://uscbloggers.com/kendall/images/all%20the%20girls.JPG
Some of us can now make an important contribution to reducing our personal carbon footprints by purchasing wine which has had its GHG pollution audited ( and choosing the
ones with the lowest pollution, obviously)
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/08/2765302.htm?section=justin
bob, you give us a slogan in three words then
William Bowe – 897
At the 2008 general election the 2PP (ALP vs Lib) was 64.6% to 35.4.
I have trawled the comments made since this post, in the hope of finding some spin to show that Labor’s drop of 4 points in the 2PP as against the Greens, provides further evidence for the mantra the Greens are becoming increasingly irrelevant in the Australian political landscape .
In the absence of such spin to assist me, I will have to rely on my own uneducated instincts that this result is further evidence that the Greens are slowly making headway.
Typical Labor. Why not try doing the hard yards rather than governing by 3-word slogans?
And no, despite the wishes of some, this is not somehow an endorsement of the Liberals. May they remain in the electoral wilderness for the next 2 decades.
Dr Good: I’m sorry, I can’t guess and nobody else is interested in guessing. Can’t you just tell me – I’m genuinely interested.
The Greens also got their highest primary vote ever in a federal Liberal-held seat in the Higgins by-election.
Yes, it definitely marks the beginning of the end of the Greens! The same usual suspects cry it out every week. It’s lost any sting it ever had to begin with. Crying wolf is never helpful in the long run.
Peter Young
the trouble with that is that the mantra appears to have originated with Greens posters, to give them something to argue against.
Similarly, you’ll get bob delightedly telling everyone that something is proof that the Greens will hold bop in the Senate after the next election, when noone has seriously suggested they wouldn’t.
Someone mentioned earlier that the Greens were improving by about 1% to 2% each electoral cycle.
Going by an average of 1.5% per cycle, that equates to .5% per year roughly.
Therefore to reach a viable level of around 45%, in about another 70 years you should be getting close!
I thought Dr Good was a briard.
Sorry confessions. I felt guilty when I said that.
It is a puli.
If you are interested in what a puli is really like (when not confined to a postage stamp) then there is a very funny video of one in the snow at
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wD0sd2y0-Vc
A puli!
Cute video. Thanks for that.
Because as I see it, Peter, your Green 35% consists of the combined Liberal party plus Greens vote in the bye election.
In the state election Labor’s vote consisted of its own vote plus 8% + or – from the Greens.
The ALP actually improved it’s own primary vote on this basis.
I haven’t been following the extensive and acrimonious argument at the Willagee thread. I think it’s evident that the WA state ALP is at a fairly low ebb (as happens when you lose elections), and that voters in Labor seats are using the Greens as a vehicle to express their dissatisfaction. If the Greens want to interpret that as a positive vote for themselves, I can’t refute that assertion, but my view is that most of those disaffected voters will come back to Labor at the next state election, assuming Labor sorts out its internal problems. The obvious analogy is the Greens’ victory in the Cunningham by-election, which reflected Labor voters’ dissatisfaction with Crean and with the botched Labor preselection rather than a surge of genuine support for the Greens, as we have seen in Cunningham since.
The Green vote in Higgins and Bradfield is meaningless in the absence of a Labor candidate. All that happened was that the majority of Labor voters used the Greens as surrogate Labor candidates. What WAS significant was the Liberal gains in lower-income booths, which reflects the fact that many low-income Labor voters prefer a moderate Liberal to a radical Green.
These Lib-Green-(no ALP) and ALP-Green-(no Lib) contests are very fashionable of late
but they are not the stuff of general elections and so seem to generate more heat than light.
Typical Greens. No solutions, only unrealistic ideals.
erica is in charge of the re-introduction or work choices. Who said abbott didn’t have a sense of humour.
Their erica is sure going to win hearts and minds. Not.
Because when the Liberals say delay they mean they don’t want anything done. I think you know this and are just pushing it to get a reaction.
That may be true, but the Greens vote has remained substantially higher in Cunningham post-Organ compared to pre-Organ hasn’t it?
It probably depends on who says it. Minchin yes, but there are probably some who genuinely want to wait till after Copenhagen, or till after other countries commit themselves as well.
Do you remember making this comment?
And this!
To this!
Then to “THIS”!
Then to this!
You really descend to the depths in trying to cover up for your original statement when you get caught out on it, don’t you!
Very poor form, Bob!
Ruperts been in the liquor cabinet again…
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/digital-media-no-threat-to-journalism-murdoch/story-e6frfku0-1225808296664
There has been no post-Organ because he was the candidate in both 2004 and 2007. His vote in 2007 was 14.6 (down 4.8). He obvious has some personal vote as a former sitting member.
Zoomster
There has been a continuous commentary on exactly this, by Labor supporters. As recently as yesterday Briefly was anouncing that the Greens wouldn’t hold the BOP (as well as indicating they were eating babies or some such
)
Probably you skip those posts… but we Greens will be on them in a flash!
Psephos
What a difference a few days makes!! I remember the terrible commentary you were giving Saturday afternoon!
Good afternoon all!
I see Bob is in full flight!
Maybe you all should try and ignore his obvious baits?
He voice sounds like a concentration camp commander so that will go well with selling workchoices
Abbott’s Shadow Cabinet: Where do I start?
Resurrecting Bishop, Andrews, Ruddock(my dear local member, the undead one): obviously a sign of great Liberal Party renewal.
Rather appropriate Morrison is Shadow Minister for demonising refugees, as his seat takes in Cronulla.
Joyce in Finance: I guess he did the books once or twice on the farm, so that qualifies him for the job!
Peter @1168
Not that simple. In a Lab/Lib head to head almost all of the green vote would have ended up with Labor. In esscence, the final 2PP in a Lab?Lib head to head would be Labor+Green v’s Liberal+Others.
It’s almost impossible to work out what percentage in the by-election were Liberals that tactically voted Green v’s actual new Green voters. If you’re interested in trying then the individual booth results can give you some idea by matching up geographics/demographics/political tendencies – as Anthony Green did for Higgins (link or comment by him somewhere on PB but I can’t find it right now).
There is a list of federal by-elections over the last few decades at
http://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/supplementary_by_elections/
During most of the 1990s it seems that both major parties decided to run in
most by-elections regardless of their chances.
One exception seems to be Kooyong in 1994 which all turned out remarkably similar to the by-elections on the weekend.
So I am not convinced by these claims of great advances being made by the Greens
(on the basis of non-standard competitions) much as I would like that to be true.
And Craig Emerson will be disappointed that Ciobo got shafted completely!
Sharman Stone said to be unhappy at her demotion(I guess she supported Turnball).
But, guess who’s having a big hissy fit because he didn’t get a shadow cabinet job?
Dennis Jensen!
Yep, poor Dennis, you’d think he would have got rewarded for being the biggest climate change sceptic/nutjob in the Liberal Party – shame on Abbott and Minchin!
This is just to show how out of touch Abbott is.
While all countries in the world are tackling the biggest issue facing Mother Earth, Abbott is taking Australia back to the past with a vengeance with a team of dinosaurs. It’s really tragic for Australia’s sake:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8400792.stm
Meanwhile: Premier Keneally has brought Sartor and Mcdonald back to state cabinet, and promoted Tony Kelly!
Finns: Will Greg Hunt try to gatecrash Copenhagen? I don’t imagine he was invited!
Thats why I said abbott has got a sense of humour
Just hope they keep making these dumb moves and hoping to win from the far right. But some voters will lap it up.
Talkback radio is raving about how wonderful the lineup is, but you’d expect that on “Liberal Radio”.
What percentage of Green voters will be second preferencing the coalition next election? Many?
I still say Abbott’s biggest joke is to give the Policy Development portfolio to someone on indefinate leave!
Eratosthanes,
Nice one!
I wonder if Turnball will comment about this on his blog?
Very few!
But perhaps you should ask Bob, he apparently speaks for the Greens.
Only if I want a silly answer with name calling and useless numbers.
More good news for HopingHagen. There is more than one way to skin the cat:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/markmardell/2009/12/he_may_not_use_it.html
I wonder whether the skeptics and deniers would also dispute this finding and say CO2 is good for you, like the napalm in the morning.
Abbott on Slynews
Interesting, but surely he wouldn’t be game to go this route. Imagine the endless branches of the Montana Militia that would spring up overnight – ‘He’s takin’ away our C02!” (blam blam!)
Abbott said the first job of the Opps is to attack the Govt, policies come second.
Translation: We don’t have any policies, and won’t any time soon
David Speers might be pissed off that the Mad Monk’s best pal is Alan Jones and not him!
One good thing about Bishop going back to the coalition front bench: we don’t have to listen to any more of her endless, useless points of order in QT!
The Coalition needs the incisive precision of someone like Dennis “It’s the Vibe” Denuto.
Evan @1195
ciobo is still there
Peter Hatcher of SMH just confirmed that Abbott and his attack dogs will focus on attacking the Govt and will not develop and propagating their policies.
This is essentially over turning an old Bush administration policy. It was obviously done to put pressure on the Senate to pass its climate & energy bill (Boxer-Kerry). The executive is basically saying that if the legislature doesn’t act, they will. So if the congress wants to influence policy it should do so early next year.
Of course once the U.S. passes a cap and trade scheme, then that will make Abbott look incredibly unfashionable.
gus,
He lost Small Business and is out of the Shadow Cabinet.
Question: what’s the highest vote ever polled by a Green, in a contest against both Labor and Coalition candidates, for a single-member seat, state or federal?
Fiona Byrne got 32.5 in Marrickville in 2007 – that seems to be the record
Cyndi Dawes got 29.7% in Brunswick in 2006
Rochelle Porteous got 29.5% in Balmain in 2007
Richard Di Natale got 27% in Melbourne (state) in 2006
Gurm Sekhon got 25% in Richmond in 2006
Ronan Lee got 25% in Indooroopilly in 2009, but he was a sitting member elected as Labor.
Adam Bandt got 22.8% in Melbourne (federal) in 2007
Jenny Leong got 20.7% in Sydney in 2007
Michael Organ got 20% in Cunningham in 2004, but he was a sitting member, elected at the by-election without a Liberal opponent.
Bob Brown got 14% in Denison in 1993.
Any I’ve missed?
damn
that puts the avg. age of the shadow cabinet at over 80 yrs
Fulvio Sammut – 1178
Yes the ALP did marginally improve it’s primary vote from 51.7 to 53.8%.
Is this 2% gain, merely the difference between the ALP’s gain from Liberals (opportunistic) over it’s loss to Greens (potentially permanent). ?
Still no response from Rudd about how much a birthday cake will cost with the Extra Tax Scheme…… either he doesn’t know or doesn’t want to tell. After emailing him that question I’m not going to hold my breath waiting for a reply.
PS: I’m just waiting for Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Brazil, etc to tell Copenhagen that global warming is a massive fraud.
I thought that was their ABCs job, didn’t Trioli say that last year.
It depends how dirty you want your birthday cake to be, Herr Rommel!
DF! You’re back! How we’ve missed your senseless garbage
The Abbott front bench is a triumph for those that cant accept that the Howard government was actually defeated two years ago.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Australia is 5/139. After the 3 day victory in Brisbane, i demand to know where the bookies are.
Desert Fox, just remember that in the last scene the Fuhrer orders you to kill yourself.
Barnaby Joyce will have a difficult juggling act, he opposes an ets and a carbon tax, yet his leader says they will reduce CO2 emissions.
So how does he raise taxes to pay for the Abbott scheme? Or does he cut services?
The usual rabble response is “waste and mismanagement” – that will be a sure Barney tactic.
I’m not referring to the Libs. Spout your rubbish elsewhere.
Thanks Adam! Your comment backs up the assertion that the Greens are palatable to Labor voters. It’s just a pity Liberal voters caught on quicker in this respect
Still no answer from Abbott regarding which old taxes he will increase to pay for his fig leaf climate change policy that won’t achieve anything.
Psephos-
Larissa Waters Mt Coot-tha 2009 23.1%
Juanita Wheeler Mt Coot-tha 2006 21.7%
Andrew Carroll Mt Coot-tha 2004 23.6%
Err scorpio, you go on hysterically, but you haven’t identified where I contradicted myself or shifted positions. Try this rather than shooting off. It might help.
This is extremely silly considering that under a GST, selected items on a cake will change price, and under the ETS, there is no such tax applied to supermarket goods…
I bet in two years time we will have the sad spectacle of all today’s global warming believers denying that they ever had that view and how they were really sceptics all along! It will be seen about as credible as a flat earth.
Why is it that not one supporter of the Extra Tax Scheme can identify how much a birthday cake will cost? It’s the simplest question but it’s beyond Rudd!
That’s a very dishonest statement. I said they used the Green as a surrogate. If there had been a Labor candidate, they wouldn’t have needed a surrogate and the Greens would have polled their usual 10-15%. The key point about the by-elections was that the Greens were NOT palatable to a significant number of Labor voters, so they voted DLP or Liberal or informal.
He is also saying don’t ask me any question about our policies as well. And so far he has got away with it. Cetainly Speers grattan and hartcher didn’t seem to worried about it in the later interview.
But in an election year cannot see how he will maintain such nonsense.
Go ahead for 5MW demonstration wave power generator off Fremantle
http://www.carnegiecorp.com.au/
If you get your flour milled and cake baked in Fremantle it won’t cost
anything more under the ETS.
In Renaissance Florence the extremist clergyman Savonarola & his followers were so certain that their views on Life, the Universe & Everything were correct that one of those followers offered his leader up for an archaic “trial by fire”- to prove it once and for all.
Luckily for Savonarola the trial was washed out by rain. But by the next fine day he had changed his mind. From this moment of realism his following began to unravel, and he finished his life alone, excommunicated and executed.
Tony, however, is made of sterner stuff. He will leap into the fire (or will be tripped into it, by Turnbull), and yea! verily, he will be burnt.
bob1234
It is not just Rudd who says that “delay is denial”.
Head of IPCC “conceded the failure of Australia’s cap and trade carbon bill has given momentum to climate naysayers worldwide”
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/abbott-fuelling-sceptics-un/story-e6frg6n6-1225807995911
Greg Hunt has said the Libs do not want an ETS operating for at least 4 years. So what is their policy no EST or a delayed ETS?
You mean that’s his front bench!?
I thought they were the early guests for the 10th anniversary reunion dinner of the old team.
Was there any reason given for the arbitrary 4 years? Is this code for, we won’t let the ALP government implement one but we may implement one if we win government?
They are making it up as they go along. I wouldn’t take anything they say for the next year seriously.
Psephos 1219
Adele Carles got 27.56% against ALP and Libs in Freo in 2008
What an amazing coincidence! Rudd mate who has just received $70 million from Australian taxpayers bags Abbott.
It’s incredible that Abbott has had such an impact on the world stage already. They must be terrified!
(IPCC chairman Rajendra) Pachauri described Mr Rudd, whom he met last month during the Prime Minister’s lightning trip to India, as a “remarkable leader and an experienced politician”…
During his India visit Mr Rudd pledged $70 million in funding for a host of new joint agriculture and energy research projects, several of which involved India’s top environmental organisation, TERI (The Energy Resources Institute), which Dr Pachauri also heads.
Psephos – 1236
What do you suggest Labor voters in the NSW seats of Marrickville and Balmain will do in 2011, when NSW Labor is unpalatable to Labor voters?
Finns – I thought Peter Hartcher seemed quite excited, as a journalist, at Abbott’s populist and aggressive stance altho he did concede it may not be what the punter wants.
If he gets too aggressive I reckon the punters will turn off.
This Govt’s got a lot of good front benchers who can point out the Abbott & Co’s untruths but they are going to have to be on top of it all the time.
I can’t wait for Joyce to explode with his stupid exaggerations.
Wow – Greg Hunt has just blown Abbott’s campaign with that ‘ETS in 4 years’ gaff.
Adam:
2001 Federal Election
Grayndler – 21.08
Melbourne – 18.98
Sydney – 21.61
2007 Federal Election
Batman – 17.17
Denison – 18.60
Grayndler – 18.70
Sydney – 20.71
2008 WA State Election
Fremantle – 27.56
Maylands – 19.08
Perth – 19.28
Vasse – 17.95
2001 WA State Election
Fremantle – 17.04
Adam, how significant do you really think the protest vote for the DLP was at the Higgins by-election? They still polled less than 4%, not really indicative of a massive protest vote is it?
And how many of those voters confused them for the ALP?
I cannot imagine any fully-brained person mistaking State for Federal.
But then I’m New South Welsh- it might be a bit easier here…
Is Hunt really that stupid? I doubt it. He must have been told to make that comment against his better judgement. Why wouldn’t he wait for two weeks to see what comes out of Copenhagen?
In the 2007 Australian Election Survey 18% of Labor voters said they would never vote for the Greens.
So 82% would? I can see why you are worried Adam.
Just a little word of advice Bob! I am usually pretty easy going and have a pretty good sense of humour.
But I quickly lose that when someone like your self thinks it good sport to direct abuse at me for no reason except to inflate your own twisted ego.
So my advice to you is this. You ignore me and my posts and I will ignore yours.
If you wish to persist in directing personal abuse in my direction, please be advised that I do not wish to receive such treatment and I will take whatever action I deem appropriate at the time to have it cease!
What will be an important factor for the Greens in these slightly hippie-ish seats in a real election is how the new(old) Far Right Climate Change Denialist Liberals direct their preferences on how to vote cards. Depends on what the Liberal party authorities think about having the possibility of their preferences putting a Green in a lower house.
Here is an interesting article, “Death Denial” by George Monbiot that explores why CC denialism is increasing.
http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2009/11/02/death-denial/#more-1221
Geoff Robinson – 1253
I am not aware of those survey results. Does that mean 82% “may” vote Green if the circumstances justified it.
Presumably the 18% are anti basket-weaving, mung bean munching, drug taking, soft on crime, homosexuals, atheists etc etc (add stereotype of your choice here) . LOL
Desert Fox, is that you with the chicken?
http://cache3.asset-cache.net/xc/sb10064859i-001.jpg?v=1&c=NewsMaker&k=2&d=D30A939CD3593F4498606EB14FE360290D99AD3394307473E30A760B0D811297
You suppose to eat the chicken!!!!!
If there was a suitable site for a geo-thermal power plant, it was viable, funded and ready to go. But it would result in the extinction of a rare frog. Should it be built?
Finns
I’m sure Moko will be pleased with that selection, very decent of Tiger I think
Well I understand that the Greens deliver an average of 70-80% preference flow, roughly, to the ALP in a 2PP contest ALPvsCOAL, so presumably about 20-30% of Greens preferences end up with the COALition.
I wonder how many ALP voters place the COALition above the Greens in their preferences?
I do.
I do not think that there are many (if any) actual lower house seat results which would give us empirical data on that one (i.e. on ALP voters giving higher prefs to COAL vs
Greens)
ruawake -1260
In answer to the question posed by you, and without having the full facts available at the present time, and accordingly it will be necessary to carry out a full investigation followed by community consultation, it would seem the very simple answer is NO.
Simply build the plant somewhere else.
The frog species may provide the material for vaccines etc which will save the human populaton from some awful disease. No point in having a wonderful power plant in this location, if there are no humans left to enjoy it’s benefits. Simple really question – simple answer.
I like how Rudd and Labor don’t even feel the need to comment on Abbotts old codger front bench. Just leave them alone with the spotlight on them and wait for the stuff ups.
)
(Even with the media trying to spin everything Tony as wonderfull and new
Rudd is giving Abbott as little attention as possible, Abbott won’t like being ignored he’s allready thumped his chest and challenged Kev to debates.
He didn’t get any reaction from Kev, just swatted aside like an annoying blowie at best.
Vera, methinks it will be draw. ACB must have a word or two into Punter’s ear: We cant have another Brisbane, otherwise no one will turn out for Perth and for the Pakistan series as well.
Dr Good, I thought you were intelligent enough to distinguish one from the other. Yes, delay is good for deniers, but delay does not necessarily equal denial.
And no, i’m not referring to the Liberals who do deny CC is real, i’m talking generally.
Barnaby’s first presser as Shadow Finance—
http://www.barnabyjoyce.com.au/Newsroom/MediaReleases/tabid/74/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/1022/HELLO-WAYNE.aspx
Simplistic answer to a difficult question. The geo-thermal power plant would be a public good, the frog may just be a frog.
Scorpio@1160:
Scorpio, for crying out loud, scroll past bob’s drivel
Look, if some hoons went past in a car and shouted obscenities, would you take it personally? Surely not.
You’d give them the finger and have a bit of a giggle.
Just….Don’t….Reply.
Works for me.
ruawake exemplies what’s wrong with some Labor voters these days. Theoretically, what ppl like ruawake are saying is that they’d prefer to have the coalition elected to a seat rather than the Greens. This is potentially one extra seat for Labor to retain government and in a close election could mean the difference between a Labor and Liberal government.
God help ruawake should it ever happen. People like him will be demonised for ages, AND RIGHTLY SO.
13% AND 12%
Yeah Finns, something going on there. Poor Windies will be thinking they are a chance in Perth now.
I hope they spring an upset just to teach ACB a lesson
Peter Young @ 1221.
Your question is esoteric, but I would have thought the “lunatic” Liberal vote (that is, the Liberal vote that does not adhere to the party line or interest) would fall randomly and therefore equally (more or less) between Labor and Greens.
The real test of the relative strength of the Lab v Green following will be determined when the Greens come first or second in a three way contest with Lab and Liberal, but I’m afraid that won’t happen; certainly not in my lifetime, and probably not even in yours.
And what’s more, ppl like ruawake have the balls to say the Greens are too idealistic and not pragmatic enough – what do they think putting the Greens below the coalition is?
If that’s not being idealistic, I don’t know what is!!
Crikey, this is a bit like putting Dracula in charge of the Blood Bank because he knows a thing or two about how to suck blood
http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/12/08/abbotts-frontbench-just-doesnt-look-competitive/
I listened to Greg Hunt on PM, and I wondered if even he believes the garbage he’s spouting?
Direct climate action: what the hell is that?
Errrrrrr, the Greens came second in a three way contest in the division of Melbourne in 2007.
Honestly………….
Finns, never fear, Barnaby will make sure your next lamb roast doesn’t cost over $100.
Barnaby is Mr X’s best mate isn’t he? It’s a wonder he didn’t get thrown a scrap, he did afterall go to Canada in search of a CC policy for the Coalition and got a seat in the Lib party room to show it off
bob1234
I vote the way I wish, I assume you do as well. My vote elects a Labor or a L-NP member and deprives a Green of my preference. My choice.
Ruawake
Why?
I just read Barnaby’s spiel on Wayne – what a load of hilarious cr..p!!
Wow Bob, you’ve answered Peter’s question then! Who holds the seat of Melbourne?
Don @ 1271,
Been there, done that Don. This guy has history!
I can ignore just about any rubbish but the personal abuse ignites a fuse that doesn’t go out very easily with me.
And should this sort of action somehow result in a Liberal govt, may god help you, you’ll be the new pariah.
Typical ideology over pragmatism.
He said the Greens wouldn’t come first *or second*. Not just first.
Thanks!
scorpio, just take a deep breath and don’t respond?
Oh dear, things are getting out of control for poor Tiger. You cant really blame her.
Maybe Tiger is the wrong name for him now, it should be Pussy Woods, meow, meow, meow.
http://www.bostonherald.com/news/national/south/view/20091208elin_nordegren_scorned_she_bolts_tiger_woods_den_wife_leaves_amid_porn_star_report/srvc=home&position=also
If Tiger lives in a manse, Finns, I’m joining the priesthood!
Bob1234
We need to galvanize people to action quickly, realise there is an urgency and realise that there is a powerful group of people who do not want anything done but keep couching it in terms of waiting to see a bit longer etc. We also have a reasonably complicated environmental, economic, political and scientific landscape to traverse. You need to have some simple messages to start getting people involved.
If the head of the IPCC says delay is denial then I am happy to push that as a starting point. If someone wants to discuss details then I am happy to engage as much as I am able too.
bob1234
My vote preference only matters if the Green candidate finishes above Labor. What I am doing is depriving the Green from winning the seat from second place.
Some will vote Liberal, some will vote Green, some will stay home. Whether enough will vote Green for the Greens to win the seats remains to be seen.
The point is the difference in the DLP vote between (relatively) low-income Labor booths and high-income booths. They polled 13% at Hawsburn Central and 10% at Hughesdale, but 0.7% at Kooyong Park. That’s a big differential. *Some* of these will have just seen the word Labor and assumed they were voting for an ALP candidate, but the majority were Labor voters who deliberately chose the DLP ahead of the Greens. It will interesting to see how many DLP preferences the Greens get. My guess is not many.
So you’re prepared to lie to push your point?
Vera and Finns,
Sorry I can’t stay to chat—-gotta’ collect my winnings for that pre-match bet on a Draw (gloat, gloat).
So you’d rather the Liberal candidate win than for the Greens to take second place, receive Labor preferences, and take the seat?
Even in a hung parliament where it’s the difference between a Labor and Liberal government?
Who is the Liberal stooge here exactly? Not I.
No, you’re the resident Concern Troll!
Yes, why is that so hard to understand?
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/12/07/essential-report-abbott-vs-rudd/#more-6658
Interesting. In the past 6 months, Rudd has lost 6% on hard working, lost 8% on ‘understands the problems facing Australia’, up 4% on out of touch as well as narrow minded, up 6% on too inflexible, and an entire 10% on complacent….
Because what you’re saying is you’d prefer the Libs to hold government rather than Labor, just because a Green MP would be elected.
Talk about ideology over pragmatism!!!
Interesting indeed. Next.
Complacency indeed!
Complacency indeed! Next.
And funny how we ignore ES when it contains negativity but claim it to be the new Newspoll when it’s all peaches and roses.
Typical hypocritical Labor hackery.
Hey, it’s the first time i’ve used Labor hack/ery today!
me for starters. I am diehard labor but will never ever vote greens. Not even preference.
Interesting that the Greens picked up a majority of the Labor vote in Higgins
No bob1234 what I am saying, is that I think the Greens are unfit for elected office.
Bob1234
If you don’t think that tackling climate change is urgent then you can spend all day quibbling about the subtle meanings of the words “Delay is denial”.
Otherwise get on with it and go and do something constructive. Find a denialist and undermine their certainty.
Someone’s out for an argument. Not from me though.
And as such, you’d prefer a Lib govt over a Labor govt just to deprive the Greens of a lower house seat.
Who is the Liberal stooge?
Do you have any support for this conclusion or is it a hunch on your part?
Disregarding the Libs for the moment, what about someone who does believe CC is real but wants to see the outcome of Copenhagen before setting legally binding targets?
This is a form of delay.
Does it equal denial?
In some cases yes but not necessarily in this particular case.
My issue is that ‘delay is denial’ is a strawman argument. Are you willing to say ‘delay is denial’ is not a strawman argument?
ru, what you are saying is pretty obvious to me. You’d rather a Labor government over a Liberal government but a Liberal government over a Green government. That’s fair enough. That’s why we have preferential voting.
No doubt there is at least one uneducated uninformed elector out of 90,000 who thought the Democratic Labor Party was the Labor candidate. It would be silly and naive to think otherwise.
Another strawman argument! Ruawake would rather a Liberal government than a Labor government with the support of one Green.
And if he can’t catagorically say he wouldn’t support a Liberal government over a Labor government with the support of one Green, then you know i’m right.
It’s my view based on my knowledge and experience of politics.
We’ll see when the preferences are distributed. If they were “accidental” DLP voters we’d expect them to preference the Green. If they were “deliberate” DLP voters we’d expect them to preference the Liberal.
And for those Labor voters who without a Labor candidate will vote along economically left lines?
Both the DLP and the Greens are economically left (the DLP less-so).
I didn’t know Joyce was this hardline. Wonder how he would feel if it happened to one of his daughters. Another reason to ignore his baloney.
Hemingway, for whom the money rolls? obviously, not for the Amigos.
Bob,
the question I was raising was the proposition that “a majority” of Labor voters chose the DLP over the Greens.
Certainly the DLP vote in Higgins and Bradfield was higher than we might ordinarily expect but also the DLP vote tends to be higher in the Upper House where they appear on the ballot before the ALP rather than after.
Although I suppose this might be explained by DLP voters inadvertently voting for the ALP when they are listed first. Their policies do tend to be very similar.
I think the Parliament would be unworkable and would rather be in Opposition under that scenario.
Thanks for the clarification ruawake! You’d rather a Lib govt over a Labor govt with the support of one Green.
The Greens have held BOP at various stages in the WA, ACT and Tas parliaments and somehow the Government of the day have still managed to govern without the state (or territory) grinding to a complete halt.
In my experience, the ALP have been willing to do whatever itt akes to be in Parliament and would be quite willing to accept support from the Greens. You would be naive to think otherwise.
Desert Fox @ 1222
Is an example of propaganda trolling. I suspect the same or similar comments are dropped in at any blog that can be found.
luke
ACT and Tasmania are different. They have PR systems. How did WA work out?
I’m ALP always in HOR but have voted Greens at in the upper house at recent state (VIC) and federal elections. Not next time though – it’ll be ALP but with more than a glance to make sure there’s not another FF F/Up in the preferences.
Things were quite peachy while the ALP was in government in the lower house and the Greens held BOP in the Upper. I have actually heard ALP MP’s speak in glowing terms of the Greens contribution (excluding of course the unfortunate debacle of 1v1v).
It’s not an argument he’s after but an excuse to abuse someone.
I was just told Xenephon has accepted an Abbott portfolio.
Is this correct?
It didn’t The Greens have never held the balance in a minority government situation in WA. I believe our friend is thinking of the Greens holding the balance of power in the Legislative Council.
Of course thanks to the Greens/ALP deal the Legislative Council has now been handed over to the Conservatives for a long long time.
SHHH! Don’t argue with lines from the book of Labor hackery
No.
Pity it’s supporters aren’t. They’d prefer a Liberal government.
Liberal stooges…
Only if he gets to hold Barnaby’s hand during sessions. Those two were made for each other.
No-one has suggested that. Obviously the majority of Labor voters voted Green. They would also have voted a for Democrat, an indepedent, or any broadly progressive alternative to voting Liberal. What’s interesting, however, is the minority of Labor voters who *didn’t* vote Green. It was the refusal of this minority of Labor voters to vote Green which removed any chance that the Greens had of winning Higgins. The ALP+Green vote in 2007 was 41.9% (31.1% + 10.8%). At the by-election the Greens polled 32.6%, a shortfall of 9.3%. That suggests that 30% of 2007 Labor voters didn’t vote for the Green. The wide divergence in the DLP vote between booths suggests that some of this missing ALP vote went to the DLP. The *political* point is that although the Greens may poll well is high-income cosmopolitan seats like Melbourne and Richmond, they have very little appeal to working-class voters, and until they do they will remain an inner-city green-ghetto party.
I tell you now, that’s absolute rubbish.
They actually differ quite a bit on some issues.
Hewson had his Fightback and Abbott should call his political strategy as: Rightback
Nick Xenophon urged Barnaby Joyce to support an alternative emissions trading scheme.
Yes, they really were made for each other.
*yawn*
Our good Liberal poster Glen coined the famous “Bullbutter” to object to posters with whom he disagreed and showing “hubris” was apparently a crime committed by any pro Labor poster that thought Labor might win the last election.
However, there is nothing good about Bob who basically starts fights and insults anyone who dares to have a pro Labor point of view. I’ve for sometime, like many others here ignored his rants and raves and basically skip his posts. However, others always seem to get sucked in by his blustering nonsense.
The reality is he knows nothing about politics unless he’s read it in a text book. But he seems to generate a lot of puerile posts.
“Stoicos d’elephante” is an apt description. There is an awful lot of it and you don’t wan’t to be anywhere near when he starts posting lest you get buried.
How do you think thay played out in Fremantle in the by-election?
Have you looked at the booth by booth results there (this is not a rhetorical question)?
Barnaby Joyce, as well as finance, has taken Manager of Opposition Business in the Senate? God help us all.
Finns@1339:
Good one!
Serious question, has there ever been unequivocal evidence of a pollie using a suggestion such as that, from PB, as part of a speech or interjection in parliament?
GG, I can’t be that bad if William still lets me post here.
Or is it that you just get so infuriated that I keep exposing your Labor hackery for what it is?
GG
I’ve skipped the VI Boob’s posts for as long as i can remember, but I am still suspicious that he really is Bill the Boss having a laugh
To be compared to William… what an honour! Thanks vera!!!!!
bob,
Stoicos d’elephante is you.
Tiger woods has nothing on Barnaby!!
Just braved his site (linked earlier) and what is the first thing I see?
A photo of Hyacynth that’s what
I wonder if Howie knows?
Don, you almost get the impression that is what Abbott was all about: “Dont you worry about that, we will be Rightback”.
vera,
I don’t think William’s pain threshold would be high enough, nor his self-respect low enough, to let him produce posts like Bob the Crowman’s.
I’m thinking the purile name calling kicks in after awhile as the argument juice takes effect.
Vera, where are the boobs again? Are they Tigerish? or simply Pussyfooting.
vera@1346:
Perhaps that explains it!
But for my money, Bob is a troll. He makes statements purely to get a reaction, and is abusive.
William says that’s ok because he believes what he is writing. I say that makes not a tinker’s dam of difference.
Kersebleptes
Fair enough
This is me then
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q04_ClDxRsk
Pretty much what I’ve been thinking.
If 1,466 Green voters did not preference Peter Dutton over Fiona McNamara at the last election he would have not won Dickson.
http://results.aec.gov.au/13745/Website/HouseDivisionDop-13745-252.htm
GG, fair shake of the tomato sauce. Is this “Stoicos d’elephante” to go with BBQ elephant?
Maybe it’s because William as a neutral observer observes that Labor hacks give as good as they get?
WHOA!
Head exploded yet?
Finns,
You better look up what stoicos means.
Anyone else having fantasies of a bob1234 v Desert Fox cage fight? A savage, bloody and hopefully politically fatal head butt of opposing ideological numbskullery!
There were many seats in 2007 that Labor lost on the primary vote, but won on the 2PP vote, thanks to the Greens.
Don
I agree with you @ 1354
]Hewson had his Fightback and Abbott should call his political strategy as: Rightback]
You’re in fine form tonight, Finns. That one is brilliant.
Not at all! In the past as far as my first pref goes, i’ve voted Labor, Democrat, Green, and at the next election the Sex Party will get my first vote. They have some very good policies.
What profile can be drawn of the 20% of greens who preference the Libs?
Genuine question.
Free-market environmentalists?
errr, please, let my people go.
Huh?
Correct – but do you condemn the 1,466 Green voters who may have elected a Liberal Govt.
They are the ones that have stated they will vote for the Sex Party at the next election
NewsRadio is currently playing their first Copenhagen special.
Eratosthanes @1361,
I have the same feeling when Richmond play Collingwood in the AFL. I really want them both to lose and get really disappointed when it doesn’t happen.
Bernard today in Crikey writing about Turnbull speaking out.
Isn’t Simon Bermingham helping Greg Hunt on ‘climate inaction’? Saw him on Agenda this morning completely divorcing himself from his intention to cross the floor last week to vote for the ETS. He said that policy was then and they now have a new one. What are these people smoking!!
I wonder how the moderates in the Liberal Party view Abbott’s front bench?
The resurrection of those unsavoury types must be disheartening and forebode a return to all the unsavoury and unpleasant tactics of the Howard govt. It takes them further away from Australians’. The idea of Joyce on the front bench must also seem like a joke to them and signal a party move to stupidity.
It may help Turnbull to gather a few supporters and more floor crossers.
Abbott is surrounding himself with conviction politicians, just like he is
It’s called party policy and party discipline…
No, it is just plain sad that Liberal Senators and MPs that were all set to vote for the CPRS last week are now pretending that it is a bad policy.
Me too
(But not my 80th!)
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/bob-hawke-turns-80-20091208-khgt.html
Ruawake, those 1466 voters may have included 56 LDP voters, up to 52 CDP voters, up to 338 Democrat voters and up to 456 FFP voters.
And strictly speaking if 109 had not preferenced Dutton over McNamara he would not have won the seat.
Greetings, bludgers. Have not had the opportunity to post for a while, but could not let the selection of Abbott’s shadow cabinet pass without some comment, now I’ve stopped laughing, that is.
They’re trying to save the furniture, I reckon, and they’ve been suckered by an email onslaught from the Catch the Fire mob.
Even the 7.00pm ABC1 News referred to them as the Back to the Future selection.
Agreed. But you were at a loss to understand how they can change their position so quickly. Party discipline.
He is young enough to be included in the Abbott shadow ministry apart from the fact that Bob is from the other side of the barricades
HopingHagen or Hopelesshagen?
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2009-12/08/content_9140182.htm
Bob Brown, Bob Hawke, Bob1234, all very good people. Must be something about the name bob
Yes, may well be the case. Anyone else would and do get the get the flick. So a deliberate conscious decision has been made to allow it.
Consistently blatant ongoing abuse of other posters and fostering in your face conflict are the basic tenant of so many of his posts. Just look at todays examples. There are thousands in the achieves.
If someone said most of this stuff to many of us, face to face, most people would just king-hit him and be done with it – a point made in the board guidelines in this regard about the fairly *trivial* practice of using CAPS for HAHAHA etc.
I’m am coming to the view that if we all responded to him in the same as he conducts himself it could bring things to a head quickly. It would not be pretty for a while but the current situation is barely civil.
Maybe most people prefer to just go on putting up with his puerile drivel.
Yeah Bob, I can see the similarities.
Bob Hawke is a distinguished Staesman and Labor Party icon
You, on the other hand, are aturd.
dave, sounds like you need to stop being so obsessive compulsive over me.
I love you too GG
It certainly appears that, by bringing back Ruddock and Andrews as well as choosing Minchin and Joyce, Abbott, like Howard in the past, will be appealing to the darker angels of our nature to attract voters
C’mon GG. Stop being ambivalent. Come right out and say what you mean.
bob,
More stoicos d’elephante from you. How much do you think you have to give?
The Abbott China dog-whistle is unleashed.
OK Tony – what is the difference?
The actual preference flow in Dickson from the 5006 people who
put Greens 1 was:
1119 (or 22.35%) put Lib above ALP
and
3887 (or 77.65% of them) put ALP above Lib
http://results.aec.gov.au/13745/Website/HouseDivisionTcpFlow-13745-252.htm
So this was one of the quite a few seats where those Greens
who prefer Lib over ALP managed to elect a Liberal
(when there were enough of them so that if
some had preferenced the other way then
the ALP would have won the seat).
I think Swan was another such seat.
Shame on them! Bloody Liberal stooges. Take them out the back and shoot them.
Harry – Chris Uhlmann on 7.30 Report just referred to a Lib telling him the oldies were the ‘living dead’ so we had another laugh here.
But Abbott is buoyed up – his ‘upsurge’ in the polls and the by-election have told him that Rudd is on the ropes!!
Bob
They are entitled to do that.
It is just that you seemed outraged to think that there could be
ALP-1 voters who might preference Lib above Green and therefore
deny the Greens a seat in certain circumstances.
Because anyone who wants a Liberal government over a Labor government supported by a Green is a Liberal stooge.
That had me laughing as well, BH. Wot, they saved their safe seats? 56 v. 44 is an ‘upsurge’?
How long do you reckon it will take for it to dawn on People Skills that he’s just wedged his own party with this Shadow Cabinet?
Dumbest political thing I’ve ever seen in my life.
Here’s another liberal Liberal complaining about the rougher the usual treatment being dealt out by the Conservatives. Dean is notorious for being the Shadow Treasurer in the 2002 Victorian election who pretended he lived in his electorate but was struck off the electoral rolls when official letters at his alleged address were returned “address unknown”. This meant he could not run in the election and ended a fine potential political careet..
Regardless, there seems to be a move around from the disaffected Libs. Maybe they might have another go in the new year. I reckon the only thing stopping a split is the division of party assets.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/liberals-have-betrayed-the-menzies-dream-20091207-kf80.html
Tony Abbott stole my lines from this morning in his interview with Alan Jones!!
http://www.australia.to/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=17097:tony-abbott-with-alan-jones&catid=116:breaking-news&Itemid=298
GG, doesn’t Turnbull own them all?
Steve K 1366
What profile can be drawn of the 20% of greens who preference the Libs?
My quick survey of WA seats at the 2007 federal election suggests that
there are more of them in poorer seats. Eg, in Brand it was 29% of
Greens-1 voters preferencing the Libs over ALP.
Speaking of Tiger Woods, here is an appropriate song.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzL4fNogMIA
Himself Indoors showed me that tonight when I got home G.G. Who gets the furniture if they do actually split? BTW, what on earth is stoicos d’elephante?
Scarpat,
Interesting point given one of the reasons proferred for Turnbull’s ascendancy to the Opposition Leadership was that he could bankroll the Libs. Turnbull is very well connected because of his business interests but also because he wa the Liberal Party bagman for a number of years and knows who to talk to get money out of Corporate Australia.
If a split occurs then the money is likely to be with Turnbull.
Christian Kerr comes up with this gem.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/houserules/index.php/theaustralian/comments/greens_revolution_hits_red_light/Are his figures correct?
It’s these results that have got them excited – booths that voted Labor at the last election swinging back to the Liberal Party in the by-elections.
Without an ALP candidate, it’s impossible to determine what that means, except they didn’t want to vote Green.
But in conjunction with the Gippsland by-election last year which did have an ALP candidate, and also swung back to the Coalition, they believe they’re on a winner fighting the ETS.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/a-sign-that-libs-have-got-it-right/story-e6frg75x-1225807506964
a) Counting hasn’t finished.
b) Turnout is always substantially lower at by-elections.
c) I’m flattered that Christian Kerr thinks the only other candidate besides the Liberals at the by-election were the Greens, but he really should remember Higgins had 10 candidates whilst Bradfield had 22.
Thanks Dr Good. Any idea why such a large number of people are prepared to vote Green yet preference the Libs over Labor?
That really is a mystery to me.
By-elections almost always swing toward the opposition.
bob,
Stoicos d’elephante
Harry – did you see Bronnie on telly tonight. She was all big smiles and cute as a button about being back with the Seniors. Quite sad to see it. She couldn’t get a big gig with Howard during his last few years in office and yet Abbott can’t do without her. I’d be livid if I was one of the young brigade.
The Gippsland by-election had absolutely nothing to do with an ETS.
Has someone correlated the following two numbers at the various
booths in Higgins?
valid votes 2009 over valid votes 2007
vs
ALP vote in 2007
It might show that the ALP voters weren’t turning up. Or not.
Here he is, back by popular demand,
I found him lurking on the House Rules blog so I thought I’d bring him over to pay a visit.
Optus, Singapore Airways?
GG
Business generally would like to *invest* in a winner. If a split occurs, it may depend. If a “DLP type” split, whichever side ends up the DLP bit will not likely get much corporate cash (low chance of winning); Labor more likely to be overall winner. If a Menzies “UAP to Liberal” split/reconstruction, maybe yes, but would be hard to execute.
I still think a split is hard…property settlements in these divorces are so messy
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/rudds-fork-in-the-road/story-e6frg75x-1111116770727
Could be old libs voting green first, the grey nomads. They see the country and see the snse in wanting to keep some forests standing and some beaches undeveloped. May also be some younger libs in there with the same reasons. Maybe some ex democrats too.
Being a green voter doesn’t mean labor gets 2nd choice, especially where labor is seen in the pocket of the developers.
What I was surprised at was the high 2nd preferences of family first that went to labor, suppose you can’t automatically pinhole party voters by your view of that party.
But overall I think the green rejection of the ETS may cause some to think of their vote for them. You have to be flexible and a start is better than nothing.
We appear at Copenhagen with no ETS and no commitment.
Why, because Bob Brown voted with Barnaby Joyce, Steve Fielding et al to reject it. He ended up looking like a big kid chucking a sooky and refusing to lay because everyone didn’t want to play be his rules, so ends up no one plays.
I like the greens and their ideals but they need to kearn some political sense.
Airlines!
{Without an ALP candidate, it’s impossible to determine what that means, except they didn’t want to vote Green.
But in conjunction with the Gippsland by-election last year which did have an ALP candidate, and also swung back to the Coalition, they believe they’re on a winner fighting the ETS.]
Aristotle, I think that Labor voters didn’t see the point in voting Green rather than didn’t want to vote for the Greens. It wouldn’t have changed the dynamics in the HoR and possibly also because the Greens voted down the ETS along with the Libs.
Also, I don’t think that ETS was a big issue in Gippsland by-election ( I may be wrong) so it is only Libs putting spin on it
Good piece by Jonathan Holmes over at the ABC – and some good comments too. One of them sums up what many of us think.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/08/2764585.htm?site=thedrum?site=thedrum
Splits don’t occur on the non-Labor side. They occur on the Labor side because Labor binds it’s MPs to voting with the party line or face expulsion. Do a little research.
The article suggests, cost of living issues is the theme they will be pushing with the anti-ETS stance and they believe that’s what helped win them the Gippsland by-election.
Bob… you’re relying on an opinion piece in the Australian written by Glenn Milne? I suppose it really is ‘whatever it takes’ with you.
Aristotle,
The opening lines in the PD’s piece are a give away, namely ‘Howard’s Battlers’ voting again for the true inhabitants of the Treasury benches. The safe Lib. seat voted for the Libs.. When did Toorak or Malvern ever battle anything other than how to make more money? My goodness there’s some complete rubbish being put about in the MSM these days. (I don’t think you think this, of course, being much in awe of your psephy skills).
Diog, you need a Manager. i am available
Oakes made a wise crack on 9 news tonight about Abbott being known as the love child of Howard and Bishop so what was more natural than giving his mother a job.
(not exact words but close) His report was pretty tame, no open criticism of Abbott’s new bench.
GG
Should that be stoicos d’elefante?
HSO
so glad to see you’re back here. Was worried we’d lost you.
Dr Good
it really isn’t a mystery. I know a lot of people who vote 1 Greens and then Liberal. They tend to be either the Hamerite Liberal type – progressive socially – protest voters (really want to vote Lib but also want to send them a message) or ‘conscience’ voters – that is, feel guilty about the impact their lifestyle has on the environment but are corporate types who would otherwise be Libs.
No I just took the first search result I could find. You don’t remember the ETS being slammed by Nelson as a tax on good country folk, along with alcopops?
Finns
I stole it from James Lovelock’s “Revenge of Gaia” book anyway. Somehow, I doubt Abbott read it there. He used it again in his presser today.
Here is a much more authoritative source on that.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/08/2765609.htm
…….. i’m at a loss…
Thanks William!
*pokes tongue at ltep*
Show off
Well I will have to defer to those with greater knowledge than I! Although my recollection of the campaign is much more along these lines:
Like Mr Grech, obviously my memory is false or faulty.
People should just learn to stop questioning me and accept that I am always right, 100% of the time.
Anything else is utter dribble.
bob,
stoicos d’elephante.
How come Keneally didn’t bring della Bosca back? Doesn’t anyone want him anymore?
Been a long time since I agreed with GG but there you go, on this one I do
You seem surprised by this…?
Perhaps Abbott will use him. He is resurrecting everybody else.
ltep
I remember it that way too, and alchopops as well, wasn’t it Brendan the Bundy mixer drinking ute owners best mate. He was their hero fighting against Rudd taxing their Alchopops and offering a 5c a lt reduction in petrol.
He was the pensioners saviour too holding up cans of baked beans in QT and promising them a $30 pension increase (I now wonder if that was a Gretch leak of Labor policy)
I love this bit. I know far more about politics than he ever will. At least he’s given an implicit admission however
Diog, be afraid, be very very afraid. you have competition.
Another thing to wonder is, if there really is a huge blue collar backlash against the ALP due to concerns over job losses resulting from the CPRS why this isn’t being represented in polling. Or is it?
Maybe the blowtorch of an election campaign makes people look at the CPRS more closely.
At this stage, I wouldn’t make any greater claim for a CPRS backlash than that it will cost Labor votes in power generation and coal mining areas – and I can’t identify any seats which that would cost them.
Itep, the polling’s been around 56/44 since May 2008 and before that the gap was even larger.
Nothing that’s occurred has has any lasting impact on the polls.
ltep
Perhaps it will show up in a Bradley effect, ie so in the dark hidden recesses of the polling booth, people will selfishly vote against doing anything on CC and vote Lib. It could be the Diogenes Effect.
GG@1400:
Thanks for that link, GG, much appreciated.
I wonder how typical that response is? If it represents a gathering groundswell, the libs are gone for all money at the next election, it will be a Ruddslide.
I think it’s because a large amount of people admit they don’t know much about the CPRS, and when the blowtorch of an election/by-election is there, that’s when there’s more of a CPRS backlash.
Blue collar workers have a hell of a lot more to fear from the Liberals with their Miserable SerfChoices. They just have to be reminded of the threat …
Why didn’t they in 07?
Grog, Work Choices was the big elephant in the voting booth
Both had the same policy then and there was a feel-good atmosphere to CC. With a scare campaign and one party completely opposed to doing anything, there might be a difference.
Grog@1456:
The choice wasn’t there.
Rattus rattus had a CPRS similar to that agreed to by labor and liberals, till it was dynamited by the munchkins.
I should have been more specific when I wrote this,
I was pointing out it wasn’t this week’s Newspoll that made Tont Abbott optimistic, because there was nothing to be optimistic about, it was the booth by-election results, and the fact they didn’t go to preferences in either seat.
Poll after poll has shown that the CPRS does not carry much understanding in the voting public.
Abbott might be trying to copy Canada
http://www.thestar.com/business/article/735533–olive-canada-the-ant-at-climate-conference-picnic
When was the last of the series of polls done that showed people wanted action on CC but didn’t want to pay for it…?
It’s hardly surprising that people in the coal towns of the LTV are not keen on an ETS, or indeed on anything to do with climate change, since Victoria’s brown coal generators must be in the front line of any climate policy – I read somewhere that they contribute 10% of Australia’s total GHG emissions (or was it CO2 emissions?). That’s one reason why the Valley has gone bad for Labor over the past few years. The other has been that the ALP in the Valley has for years been in the hands of a clique of old union leftists who have run a series of awful candidates. Jenkins, who managed to lose Morwell in 2006, was a dope and was widely disliked locally. There have also been local water issues.
Worth 5% and now Abbott has resurrected it, unbelievable, madder than Mark.
Workchoices Mark III should ensure the labor 2PP is at least held steady at the next election.
so we have Tony Abbott’s new team basically a group of out of date, out of touch conservatives.
There is no justufication for having half-wits like Kevin Andrews and Brommy Bishop on the frontbench, i see Minchin is now spokemans for energy and resources, that in itself speaks volumes forn the direction that Abbott will go in future.
Joyce in finance is not bad of choice for he is a Accounting so i take it he knows how to read balance sheet.
But all up this is a woeful effort by Abbott
Remember they don’t have the solar option in Canada, since it’s dark for eight months of the year. Maybe they can find a way to generate electricity from snow.
Andrews isn’t a halfwit. He’s actually quite smart. He’s just an extreme right-wing ideologue.
He’s also now the manager of opposition business in the Senate. Eugh.
Wouldn’t the state seat of Collie-Preston be one of the casulties if State Labor campaign for a local ETS, and wouldn’t the federal seat of Forrest increase it’s Liberal vote as well by frightened coal workers ?
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26459979-5005962,00.html
100% agree. It’s a shame the world continues to ignore human rights when money is involved.
So all Abbott needs to do to win government is hope that labor doesn’t stand candidates in 76 seats.
What a cunning plan and masterful strategy.
Andrew is smart ~ Really i find that hard to believe, he was hopeless in education, was useless in aged care and lets not forget his efforts with the Haneef case and workchoices, those things just don’t strike me as being smart.
Ahead of Minchin that is a surprise.
Andrews called for restrictions on muslin immigration, almost straight after a report that NSW liberals were looking to Hasim El Masri as a candidate.
Was a clever whistle, signaled to the One nationers they still had a friend and warned NSW liberals not to go down that path whilst ensuring Hasim didn’t take up the offer.
Joyce is there for the cute vote, his big eyelashes and dopey look remind you so much of a jersey cow that you just want to hump him.
I’m gay and even I don’t want to hump him. Ewww.
I used to be electrifying on skis. I can help.
I travelled to Canberra and back today, and saw silent TV screens here and there. The parade of the old/new front bench of Ruddock, Bishop and Andrews one ofter the other made me choke on my Crownie at the airport lounge. What are they thinking?? Imagine interviews on Lateline with any of that little trio on a real issue of the day. The cadaver; the mormon; and the empty hair. It’s got to be a chaser stunt for their Christams special, surely.
They are playing totally against the demographic problem the Libs have that Possum has pointed out. It is almost what market traders call a ”çontrarian” approach – making a bet on the market doing the opposite of what logic suggests. It’s straight out of Kafka.
Hello zoomster, just been very busy. I wouldn’t and couldn’t leave Pollbludgers for the excellent comraderie, information, discussion, analysis, and that terrific cardboard sign about Diog being wRONg at Macchu Picchu.
I believe the 4 Victorian generators that use brown coal generate 12% of our emissions, while producing about 4.5 GW of electricity.
My respective answers to that would be “yes, if it weren’t for the mystical electoral powers of Mick Murray”, and “who cares”. Nonetheless, it may be so that the issue will cost state Labor votes in loseable seats. My earlier comment referred to the federal parliament.
At last bob and I agree about something.
Frank 1470:
I don’t think Forrest’s ever been held by Labor… remember, that’s half Blackwood-Stirling, where Labor don’t even come second. As for the state seat containing Collie, as it expands into farming country it’s gotten more marginal anyway. That’s why it was National from 1989 to 2001, and would’ve gone Liberal last year if not for Mick Murray holding back the tide. (Which is kind of a shame, by the way – Steve Thomas was one of the less obnoxious Libs in the last parliament.) I’m not sure what Vic redistributions have been like, but the same thing may be happening in the Latrobe valley.
Fun fact, by the way. One of the Greens’ best booths in the state last year was in Collie-Preston: Balingup, down the road from Donnybrook. Greens came second with 26.7%, behind the Libs. Must be all those mushrooms down there.
“funny spots on cows bottoms”
barnyard joist.
this man is a moron.full stop
Bzzzt! Frank Kirwan won it for Labor from External Affairs Minister Gordon Freeth in 1969, but it was one of the WA seats the Liberals won back in 1972.
Vera, have you been consorting with Barnyard?
I know, my Brother in Law stood for Labor in 1990 – only time my other Brother in Law who lived in Bunbury EVER voted Labor.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/candidates/k.txt
And yes, the above two are Brothers to former WA State School Teacher’s Union Leader Mike Keely.
Hah, well there ya go. 1972′s a pretty strange year for Labor to lose seats, but then so was 2007 I guess.
They lost Sturt in S.A. too after winning it for the first (and only) time in 1969.
It was also held by the great Nelson Lemmon 1943-49. He was Minister for Works in the Chifley government and was largely responsible for the early stages of the Snowy Mountains hydro scheme. He was the last living member of the Chifley Cabinet.
Time for truthy to rematerialise?
They also lost Stirling and Bendigo. The WA seats were lost because of the unpopularity of the Tonkin Labor government.
Labor also won Sturt in 1954.
They also lost Stirling. Look through the 1972 link to Psephos in my previous comment – swings to the Coalition in every WA seat, ranging from 1.2 per cent to 8.4 per cent.
Gus, Mandarin will be compulsory soon and The Little Red Book for The Bible.
Vera @1462, Canada is either cold, or frozen over, so its no wonder they’re smug about global warming. Heck, with another 5C, it might become habitable
I’m sure they’ll be happy to accept a hundred million climate refugees too
Canada and Russia are big winners with a few degrees of climate change.
Don’t we also agree that the longer the Liberals are out of office, the better?
C’mon Adam, we’re not that different, you and me
Canada has already spotted the advantages in global warming
Cud Chewer, I lived in Montreal for two years. The first winter it didn’t get above freezing for 100 days. The second winter, it snowed so much that the city ran out of snow clearing budget. They closed the city down and people were skiing down the main streets of the city.
The temperature could go up 10 degrees and it still wouldn’t be habitable
Aargh, what happened to my link?
http://scienceblogs.com/islandofdoubt/2009/11/canada_learns_to_love_global_w.php
Dio
I saw something about wolve patrols in siberia,the range of wildlife is extending to hitherto unknown regions,hence the need to protect people and livestock.
Scanning through recent posts, I can see that the Greens are now being blamed for the election of Peter Dutton. Of course as we all know the Greens are responsible for all the problems of the world (LOL) or are at least a suitable dog to kick when things don’t turn out in the orderly way you planned.
Now why we are at it, let’s not forget that the Greens were responsible for the election of Malcolm Turnbull in Wentworth in 2004. Had the Greens preferenced former MP Peter King instead of Labor (and assuming that like sheep Greens voters slavishly followed the how to vote card), King would have won the seat – (Greens first eliminated, putting King in front of Patch (ALP), Patch eliminated with his vote going to King and putting King in front of Turnbull).
I note that in many seats Greens preferences ensure a Labor win, where Labor is unable to secure a majority on the first count. Clearly Labor just assumes this is their no-god given right, and dismisses the Greens as “irrelevant”.
It is difficult to know whether the Greens decision in 2004 in Wentworth was the right one. On the one hand it put a Liberal into parliament instead of an independent. On the other hand it created a “Frankenstein’s monster” who may go down in history as being responsible for the destruction of the Liberal Party.
Either way – you can be sure Labor spinners will spin it so that it reflects no credit on the Greens. Remember the mantra See a Green – kick it .
Isn’t it funny how on the day of the Higgins by-election, we saw a rare show of near unanimous Green support, and now they’re out to shoot them again. lol.
Gus@1490:
Trufy is now posting as Desert Fox, he has delusions of grandeur.
He’s abandoned his tinny for a Panzer tank. Not much use for boat people, I’m afraid, but then neither was the tinny, and it was on the wrong side of Oz anyhow.
Don
truffy’s tinny tanked?
I think the desert fox is barnyard testing his blogging skills
I did not have sex with that whackaloon!
Hopenhagen could work out well for Labor if Obama makes an appearance at the same time as Rudd. It will be very interesting to see what kind of progress is made at this conference.
The Liberals will be hoping that Obama does not introduce an ETS for the US before our election, otherwise it’s curtains for them. So it’s going to be curtains for one party at the next election, either the Libs or the Greens.
Abbott on lateline
Abbott has 5 different positions. What? More than Tiger?
Abbott: I stand for nothing.
He didnt talk to howie,they just prayed together
Gus, may be they play the Sitar together
“Land of Hope and Glory”
Behind his back: You Askehole.
Not that I can be bothered watching Lateline anymore, but did I just read above that Abbott was on Lateline AGAIN!?!?!?!?!?!?
Suffernin’ Suckertash! What IS it with the ABC? We have a government, don’t we? They are among the top players at the major world conference for the year, aren’t they? And all they can think to do is interview Tony Bloody Abbott?
Sheesh!
David Penberthy:
Finns
Abbott is the missing thunderbird
“dickhead tracy”
He is doing very well strangling himself with his own rosaries.
Finns
be afraid,be very afraid.
They walk among us!!
And if youse want to cheer yourselves up, read this:
http://www.news.com.au/national/abbott-unveils-fighting-frontbench/comments-e6frfkvr-1225808164076
It’s the readers comments on the News Ltd site re. Abbott’s new shadow Cabinet. One example:
Poor sods.
Abbott: “If I win the next election, then I am the genius, else i will be the roadkill.”
Methinsks Lucy Turnbull will make sure of that.
BB
Maybe you might see this. I am reposting it.
crikey whitey Originally Posted Thursday, December 3 2009
Found you BB at 2726. Great work.
Agree entirely with the idea of Labor proxies, but where to see or hear them till Kevin realises he has to get a good hard grip on the throat of the ABC to return it to some semblance of balance.
Which I too have perceived as almost totally lacking in Labor protagonists, both TV and Radio. ( Albeit that Australia Talks is on as I write, about Climate Change and Emissions Trading, one speaker at least is sounding rational).
The thought unbidden crossed my mind that it is Kevin’s fault for being out of the country so often. I prefer not to explain what I mean by ‘fault’ for fear of having to address my paranoid tendencies.
In the meantime, you may be consoled by reading the comments on (tomorrows?) SMH article of Hartcher’s . Sorry I cannot link it, keep getting HTML.
“Underdog just raring to unleash the Mongrel within”
PETER HARTCHER
December 4, 2009
(Which includes this bit)
“Julia Gillard yesterday issued an implied threat to call an election. But this is the third time the Government has issued deadlines and ultimatums to the Opposition on the matter.
The Government threat is reminiscent of the scene from the satirical movie Team America, where the UN sends its chief weapons inspector, Hans Blix, to warn the North Korean dictator, Kim Jong-il, to submit to inspections.
“Or else what?” challenges Kim.
“Or else we will be very angry with you . . . and we will write you a letter, telling you how angry we are.”
Comments 36
Sorry but I can’t seem to capture the link.
Just found this report on ABC online news. How many are there in Abbott’s cabinet again?
By the way, cheers, Harry.
Was asking about you a night or so ago.
Abbott has walked away from his position that we will never have an ETS or carbon tax.
1514 Bushfire Bill Lateline is worth look. TA was creamed.
Poor Mad Monk, he didn’t get the free ride and mass adulation he enjoys on the Alan Jones/Liberal Party Radio show!
An anonymous moderate Liberal on tonight’s ABC news was scathing about Abbott’s front bench: Turnball or Sharman Stone or someone else?
He knows that Rudd will not do a DD if there is no additional benefit, he forgets that Rudd can and may do a DD for a later election (after early July) that is for all the Senate.
The threat is real and it was very stupid for the Liberals to allow it to come into being, given they have bad polls that have barely moved for two years. It allows Rudd the advantages of a late DD if the polls maintain their current state, or even worsen for them. Thus handing Labor a very good opportunity in HOR and the Senate.
Abbott gave Rudd two election scenarios to play with putting a great deal of pressure on Abbott. If Abbott turns out to be anathema to the general electorate then polls will dive, and I am sure Rudd will love to have a DD on figures of 55 or worse!
Abbott has until the end of June to resurrect Liberal support levels. If the polls remain at around 56/44 in June their will be a great angst and gnashing of teeth within the Liberal Party. Tough Turnbull would have taken over from then, I believe.
Abbott on Lateline tonight made a complete tool of himself by selectively quoting Dr James Hansen as an argument against Rudd’s ETS yet ignoring Hansen’s alternative a Carbon Tax.
Thanks, crikey w., I’m never so far away, just get busy with work and family, and certainly miss being able to speak with the people I cherish here.
What do you think about the proposition that Abbott’s wedged himself with his choice of his shadow cabinet?
They could make a horror movie out of that lot. Abbott, Andrews, Ruddock, B Bishop, J Bishop, Dutton, Bourke, Morrison, Mirabella, give me the Warewolf and Count Vladamire (with his horny vampiresses) anytime
And why does he trust anything Hansen says anyway when he won’t even concede that the earth is warming? And why does he rely on Andrew Bolt misquotes of Tim Flannery?
It’s fairly obvious that the tactic of Abbott/Minchin and their troops will be to stir up scare campaigns on a whole range of issues, using talkback radio and News Ltd as their propoganda vehicles.
Reembracing the proponents of nasty wedge politics under Howard is a sure sign of the direction Abbott is taking the Liberals in!
ShowsOn at 1532.
Abbott also took a lot of his cues tonight on Lateline from his interview with Alan Jones i.e. Copenhagen is one propaganda fest. Poor Tone can’t even get his moronic lines right. Surely a communist propaganda fest. Doh!
Shows, he’s just toast on a weeks outing as oppo leader. Honestly, he’s got no knowledge in finance himself, to the extent he appoints that idiot Barnyard as shadow Finance. The rest of his shadow cabinet should be on life support.
That is right, the whole world got together in a conspiracy just to get the Australian Liberal Party. Otherwise who is the conspiracy against, another world?
Very funny that Dennis Jensen thinks he should have got a cabinet spot, and he’s having a big old whine on Facebook!
Yes, those well known “left wingers” Sarkozy and Merkel are part of the Copenhagen “Farce”.
They called it Workchoices – and there were really NO choices.
They call it Climate Action – and they really want NO action.
Sheez!
Night all. Evan14, I reckon the Libs are scared witless and are trying to save their ‘safe’ seats. They are jubilant they ‘saved’ Higgins and Bradfield. Good grief.
Greg Hunt earlier on PM was raving about cleaning up coal fired power stations and growing more trees!
Turnball and Minchin have set up this turkey! They’ll let him bring out his dream “Climate Action” policy in February, then they’ll bury it and claim it costs too much money to implement!
Working class battlers live in Bradfield and Higgins, according to that great authority Mr Glen Milne.
Copenhagen “some latter-day environmental Munich agreement kind of thing”.
Please consider the insanity of this statement. Its the statement of a fringe whacko with a tinfoil hat on, printing pamphlets in a gun shed in Gympie.
They are going to get pounded into the dirt by the electorate.
Imagine the combination of Sloppy Joe and Barnyard Idiot in Treasury/Finance!
Swan and Tanner will have a field day!
Left the scene to look at Lateline. And partly in answer, Harry. Hope all is well as could be, very glad to hear from you.
It bothers me that Abbott is employing a line that can be bought by those who will be persuaded, in his foolish way, that destroying the planet is a cheaper option than paying a bit now, at the great expense and certainly the future of our generation, or generations, should they last that long.
It is not that Abbott mentioned, or was asked about signals, the most serious of the climate change sufferers of this very moment. Islanders with no options. Bangladeshis.
And for how long can we the so far fortunate, signals again, apart from those who lost their lives, families, homes, environment, in Australia, the USA, England, Greece, for starters, sustain the cost and momentum of fire, flood, cyclone.
The not yet exposed are merely fortunate, so far.
It is of no point to me to argue among us about the madness of the monk, with his far fetched shadow cabinet. I think we agree.
The danger of this madness must be challenged.
It is up to us to make that argument, and for Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott to voice it.
So, we must all speak to our representatives, in whatever way one would represent a case.
TP @ 1536
Yep. A global communist conspiricy hatched over 30 years – involving comrades Sarkozy, Schwartneigger, Thatcher and Queen Elizabeth II – to undermine the position of the Austrialian Liberal Party opposition leader.
Abbott knows bugger all about economics and balancing budgets!
I foresee Rudd’s lieutenants uncovering a rather vast hole in the costings for Abbott’s election policies – that will be devastating for the conservatives!
Paul Krugman has put forward a view that James Hansen is mistaken in his view on a carbon tax. Krugman says that there is, fundamentally, no difference between an ETS (cap and trade) and a carbon tax.
He thinks Hansen is mistaken and unhelpful.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/
The do-nothingers and delayers need to answer if they can guarantee our supermarkets in the future will have food and at what price. And do they want our grand kids lining up for hours to buy a loaf of bread? Global warming will have unpredictable results on global food production.
Sounds like a familiar argument.
Just did some stats on Higgins in response to various theories put forward earlier.
There is a very slight downward slope on the trendline relating booth results on 2007 ALP-TPP vote and ratio of formal votes 2009 to 2007. That means that in the more ALP supporting areas a lesser proportion of people turned up and cast a formal vote in 2009 at the booth than did in 2007. But the size of the effect is small. Eg, at a booth with 30% ALP-TPP in 2007 you might get 92% as many formal votes as you got in 2009, while at a 70% ALP-TPP in 2007 you only get 89% as many formal votes.
I think this might mean that only at most a few hundred ALP voters across the whole electorate did not turn up and cast a formal vote because they were ALP voters and
they didn’t want to cast a formal vote. The reasoning is quite complicated on this modelling but essentially it is based on the idea that if it was particularly ALP voters who did not want to vote (as compared to your average voter) then they would be more likely to show up in the drop in formal votes at a booth that usually has more
ALP voters. …if you see what I mean.
Thus, I am prepared to go out on a limb and say that there are not many ALP voters who are so upset at the Greens that they miss a chance to try to vote down a Liberal.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/abbott-defends-frontbench-reshuffle-20091209-khu1.html
LOL what drugs is Abbott on…
Surely the main difference between an emissions trading system and a carbon tax is that in one the price of carbon is market-driven, whereas with the other it is at the whim of the government of the day?
Yes. As well, in an ETS, there is more control over the level of emissions. It is also currently being used in Europe. That is, people have a lot of experience with it.
Confessions 1553
Under an ETS the government (at its whim) selects the number of permits (the cap) and that determines the price (via the market) so there is very little difference.
My observation is that people who try raising the ETS vs carbon tax debate again seem more concerned with causing secondary arguments which can contribute to delays in action.
I’m suspicious of a carbon tax. What happens if Australia gets a do-nothing denialist government which doesn’t adjust the tax rate accordingly?
Scarpat @1498, I merely spent a day in Montreal.. and froze my tits off..
Peter Young 1501
I think that started scanning posts mid way through a small and silly argument started by bob1234 (of course).
He pretended to be outraged at the suggestion that their may be ALP voters who give 2nd preference to Libs over Greens and thus may contribute in some hypothetical future scenario to a Liberal being elected where a Green could have been.
Some of us replied and showed that the converse situation does in fact actually occur. People who vote Greens-1 going on to give prefs to Libs over ALP and hence cause a Liberal to be elected when an ALP candidate could have been instead.
There was no moral judgement against those voters on my part. I was just suggesting that bob1234 might be a little hypocritical.
The fault that caused Dutton to be elected is in fact entirely with the ALP for not getting enough votes for their candidate so that they did not have to rely on the relative preference flows.
People are, probably, hoping to repeat the Republican debate trick of first getting disagreement over a precise model and using that disagreement to reject the whole project.
Putting in taxes and then increasing them is political poison and a good source of traction for opposition parties.
I am a supporter of the ETS route as I think that that is the most agreed one and, as Nick and I suggest, it is not time now for such arguments of secondary importance.
However, the problem you raise of a government not setting the tax high has a corresponding problem under an ETS as well. What if the government doesn’t set the cap tight enough?
A carbon tax should be adjusted by an independent carbon authority in much the same way that the inependent reserve bank sets interest rates. This will ensure that there won’t be wild price fluctuations as under an ETS. Instead the price will usually gradually rise.
Carbon taxes are sometimes mentioned by the Right but are usually a Left-Wing idea. For instance the Socialist Alliance policy is for a carbon tax.
You remember how every time interest rates move one side blaims/praises the government and the other side always points out that its actually done by the Reserve Bank? Well, it will be the same deal with an independent ‘Carbon Authority’ setting the cost of greenhouse gases.
The big problem with a tax is that it does not necessarily deliver the required amounts of cuts in pollution. With an ETS if you want a 50% cut by 2020 you only give out permits for that much pollution and so you will only get that much pollution.
However, for a tax the government has to guess say that $60 per tonne tax would produce the required cut backs by industry. Unfortunately, some industries might just pay the tax and recoup it from the consumer or suffer a loss in profit. Then there might be only a small cut back in actual pollution.
So far it has been those European countries with a carbon tax that have been the most sucsesful at reducing emittions.
Three steps to a better Poll Bludger:
Firefox
Greasemonkey
stfu
Ahh, bliss – unless someone quotes the fool.
You have to check the fine print. Some ETSs and some Carbon Taxes cannot ensure that the cuts will actually materialize whereas some models of each can. There are plenty of ways to make sure targets are met: if an industry or business exceeds a level of emittions then the government can fine them, nationalize them or shut them down. Of course if emittions aren’t falling enough then the Carbon Authority, which might meet say four times a year, would of course increase the cost of carbon. Now, if business is willing to pay heaps then we make the tax even more. This could result in a truelly gigantic tax but probably will not. However, this is nothing for households to worry about because all money raised from the carbon tax will be returned to the people in the form of an anual cheque each. This money will help us deal with the added costs (because low income households spend a greater % of income on carbon intensive services the cheques will be progresive). As the economy shifts, less carbon tax will be raised and less will be handed out.
that claim is interesting THM 1566. I would guess that there are other factors at work. Do you have a link to some evidence so I can have a look?
One thing that messed up early European ETS systems was giving away unlimited amounts of free permits to industries based on their current pollution. I think they have fixed that and are getting reasonable reductions now. Thanks to Garnaut Australia has taken this lesson on board.
Dr Good
No, I think my source was this blog. It might have been Diogenes that told us. Ask him next time he’s around. I think it might have been the Netherlands or maybe Scandinavia. Anyway I gotta admit I’m not very confident on that point.
THM 1569
The sale of permits raises the same amount of money for the government to spend as does an appropriately set tax so there is no difference there.
The only difference is that the ETS stops all that guessing and revisiting tax levels throughout the year as the tax level setter (government or bureaucracy) tries to limit the emissions to the right amount.
With an ETS the risks and guessing is done by the individual factories and if they run out of permits they just have to stop.
Thanks Musrum. That will be a popular post.
This decade is the warmest on record for the world
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/09/2765726.htm?section=justin
So the Liberal Party have chosen to have the worst possible policy on CC for the times and has chosen to be run by the exact wrong people for the times.
Labor should be pointing out regularly that Abbott and his band of merry geriatrics don’t believe their is global warming or CC and really don’t believe anybody should be doing anything.
They want to wait for the food riots before racing into action on CC.
I watched Abbott on LL tonight. I found the experience of listening to and watching him unsettling: there is a lot of aggression and tension – adrenaline – simmering away; really wanting a scrap, he seems over-cooked to me. He is a bit like a cavalryman, sabre drawn….but not sure which way his horse is pointing. I think he is out of his depth already and hoping he can substitute the promise of action for a distinct lack of strategy and preparedness.
Oh god it has been reported Rees told Kristina “Not a Puppet” Keneally ” she should continue to clean up the party, promote donations reform, not promote Mr Tripodi or Mr Macdonald, and move for Labor’s national executive to take over running of the NSW branch. and these were his conditions for joining the NSW cabinet. Rees has not been given a cabinet spot. Presumably Keneally intends going in a different direction to that Rees wants. Has she no idea why NSW Labor is so unpopular?
Abbott has a barely controlled hatred of Rudd, it is implied in many of his newspaper contributions and when he talks about Rudd. It is different from Turnbull. Turnbull hated Rudd because he was in the way. Abbott gives the impression he hates Rudd in malevolent way, with spite and malice.
Abbott like Howard is desperate to get into a fight with Rudd as they believe than can garner more votes by trying to polarise and causing people to take sides. But Rudd should be brushing him off, or even better getting his minions to exclusively deal Abbott, don’t dignify him with a response or name.
Thomas @1578, what you describe is anger born of cognitive dissonance.
Btw I can’t wait for someone to point out to Abbott the Biblical injunctions against lying.
It’s 1.40 am in the morning here in Perth and I’ve just finished putting together my new super duper Jumbuck bbq in time for my daughter’s 15th birthday party this weekend.
I started at 7.30.
And one of the door handles had a stripped thread, so I’ll have to get a replacement from a manufacturer in China.
On the other hand, I wasn’t forced to read Bob the knobs rantings on PB.
There are still some things to be grateful for.
Yes, I’ve picked up om my tautology. But it is 2 am.
Ahh, a fellow nightowl
Re Bob’s Ranting, you can do what I did and follow Musrum’s advice here 
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/12/07/newspoll-56-44-12/comment-page-32/#comment-375036
Bob’s ranting s no longer appear
1567
Musrum
How good is that! Blew away post postings as well almost like they never existed.
Thanks.
I know, beautiful, but alas if someone quotes him, we will still see them
To quote Satchmo – What a beautiful world!
Tom
On ‘Talking Pictures’ last Sunday the comment was made that Abbott always looks as if he’s about to hit someone.
So maybe the anger isn’t just towards Rudd, but the world in general.
Mushy, what type of mushrum have you been smoking. Sensational, it’s brand nu day.
Goodbye, Auf Wiedersehen, Au Revoir, Sayonara, Zai Jian, Selamat Tinggal, Hasta La Vista, Adios, Shalom, Ciao, Arrivederci, Elalleqa, Farvel, Alvida, Dag, Gasyeo – To the Pest and let him enjoy his own sound of one hand clapping.
On Lateline with TJ last night he said that dont take any notice of his “throw away line”. Abbott just wants to pick a fight with Rudd regardless of the strength and content of his arguments and now he is saying “I will do and say anything” regardless as well.
I was going to post that Abbott is reminding me of that pest on PB that we have now eliminated. Mushy, can do you another script that can make Abbott disappears as well.
cud chewer #1579
?Come in, Equivocator!
As in:
1. The shadow cabinet will do in Opposition what the same Members & Senators demonstrably failed to do in Government – scare Rudd!
Scare half the Liberals; scare workers; scare women; scare everyone waiting for stem-cell research’s cures for severe medical problems like spinal cord injuries, all auto-immune diseases inc most forms of cancer, MS, MND, diabetes, rheumatoid diseases (inc. Lupus, AS, PSS, all forms of rheum. arthritis esp juvenile), scare lots of other voters, YES; scare Rudd’s Mob??
2. What’s mentioned in para two (above). causing two all-party parliamentary revolts during Howard’s reign) never affected how voters see Abbott & his arch-conservative Shadow gang; so there’s no way Rudd, Gillard, and fellow usurpers of the Liberal Party prerogative will mention it, in parliament or on the campaign trail.
3. Will reintroduce Workchoices as a new policy to will win them government. If unions oppose it, will add a few “reds under the bed” ads from the Cold War era to to Election07′s winning anti-union ad campaign.
4. Last week marked a new beginning for Abbott and his Shadows, so Voters will forgive & forget all of the past’s transgressions, stuff-ups, affronts to voters, dummy spits, verbal abuse etc etc.
With TheOz’ backing – and front page picture captions like Bradfield voter Kate Brodie switched her allegiance from Labor to Liberal over the ETS – Abbott will convince voters that last Saturday’s by-elections, in which Labor did not stand shows Results point to climate poll challenge which will win the Coalition government next year.
I doubt even Michael Flaherty (Michael J. Fox) & Charlie Crawford (Charlie Sheen) could spin that lot!
Fran Kelly – The Drum.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/07/2764299.htm?site=thedrum
If she does not understand how a DD works, she should not be commenting on politics. At a joint sitting amendments have to be passed by one house. They will be in Feb, so her entire piece is factually wRONg.
I assumed it was “Catholic guilt” rather than anger.
Bronwyns Back! When do the Kero baths get rolled out again?
My eyes must be going. I thought I read in the paper this morning that Scott Morrison has condemned the government for being “divisive” on border protection, but that couldn’t be.
Already written. Just waiting for the Rapture to kick it off…
Like the boxer he was?
Havent seen this yet (not on lateline site yet) but heard at least part of it this morning on NewsRadio. Combination of aggression and attempted undignified retreat from inappopriate comments…What on earth did you mean about Copenhagen being like Munich?!
OK, so I tried to install Greasemonkey and I got this message:
Weird… Firefox blocked its own “Recommended” add ons. Any suggestions?
__________________________
All Hail the Battling Bastards of Bradfield!
Meanwhile, the OO dredges up a “public relations” worker who voted Labor in Bradfield last time, but was so enchanted with Tony Abbott’s ETS ramblings (and so disappointed that “the Prime Minister had failed to make the case for an ETS) that she switched her vote to the Liberals. She would have voted Labor if Turnbull had still been leader because she was so pissed-off with him she’d have wanted to send a message to the Liberals… by voting Labor, even though she’s upset that they haven’t explained the ETS, so, being so enchanted with Tony abbott’s ETS ramblings she switched her vote to the Liberals. She would have voted Labor if…
And on it goes. This young 22 year old thing gel, amazingly, exactly fits the particular scenario that the OO has been pushing regarding the results in Bradfield: disaffected Labor voter with no choice until Tony Abbott turns up. Why wouldn’t they put her on the front page?
There are 93,405 stories in the electorate of Bradfield… about 20,000 of them belong to voters who didn’t bother to vote. Labor didn’t field a candidate, so the 2PP isn’t worth the dunny paper it’s printed on. The rest of the stories are pure speculation (including Milne’s large blocks of Battlers’ flats in West Chatswood that still can’t – even on a clear day – see Kirribilli House). As for the rest of the stories of Bradfield, this rubbish about our 22 year-old who “works in public relations” has been precisely one of them.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/results-point-to-climate-poll-challenge/story-e6frg6n6-1225808410719
He’s a Catholic. They can go to confession and with a mumbled apology plus an Our Father and three Hail Mary’s can walk out of the confessional cleansed of all their sins, ready to start sinning all over again.
Dr Good and THM
I haven’t said that but I think it was in a download pdf from an article I linked from bravenewclimate about a carbon tax being a better way to reduce emissions than an ETS.
The author makes a very persuasive case that a carbon tax is the way to go.
http://bravenewclimate.com/2009/11/09/fee-and-dividend-better/
Musrum,
Post 1567. Thanks for that! No more having to scroll past that pest. The trolling had been getting out of hand in the past couple of days.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/12/07/newspoll-56-44-12/comment-page-32/#comment-375036
Bushfire Bill – 1598
Are you suggesting that Catholicism is the most convenient form of god-botherism?
BB,
I hope that 22 yo thing (and others who changed their vote) is the first to have their wages and conditions cut if the Liberals ever get returned to government. Talk about voting against your own interests!
BB, go to Option>Security>Exception then allow Mozilla site to install add-ons or unchecked the “Warn me” box
Barnaby Joyce once declared: “Do you want the Communist government of China enmeshed in the New England area?”. The business community must be in shock and awe now that Barnaby is the shadow Finance Minister.io and Chinalso deal:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/joyce-turns-to-television-to-undermine-chinalco-bid-20090316-8zxq.html
As China is filling Australians’ rice bowls at the moment, opportunistic China bashing from Barnaby like that will not be tolerated by the Chinese and the Australian business/investment community, now that the is a senior shadow minister.
Barnaby will find inside the tent is not as free as outside and he will be castrated.
BB
To use a phrase with which Abbott seems to be familiar, the idea is that one also needs to be “pure of heart” !
Unseasonal heatwave in the St George area of Queensland, Joyce’s stamping ground. He’s going to look foolish, stamping around, blustering that nothing’s the matter.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/08/2765514.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/08/2765514.htm
Briefly @ 1576 wrote,
You are correct. Abbott is way out of his depth.
All this false bravado, this schoolyard, “I dares ya, I double dares ya” will play well to his conservative fans and will excite the gallery who enjoy political fights, but Rudd will not engage with this bar room brawler, he will just dismiss Abbott’s neandarthal taunts and get on with the business of governing.
The electorate, too, will be left cold by this behaviour.
The two biggest brawlers, Keating and Costello, also excited their base and the gallery, but both were unpopular with the electorate.
Something to think about?
I didn’t think the HoR had yet passed the amended bill, and so woud need to do so twice, three months apart, before it could pass it in a joint sitting following a DD. However, I’m not sure if last proposed here allows the House to pass any amendments just once before they qualify for a joint sitting:
The members present at the joint sitting may deliberate and shall vote together upon the proposed law as last proposed by the House of Representatives…
Also, I’m wondering what the definition of a parliamentary session is in the constitution, and whether it could be a technical obstacle:
…and if after an interval of three months the House of Representatives, in the same or the next session, again passes the proposed law…
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nature-will-decide-earths-future/story-e6freuy9-1225808400388
In Sydney yesterday, we had a 28C day, the meteologist predicted it to be a 34C day
If we have trouble predicting the weather of a large city like sydney, 12 hours in advance and we get it wrong by 6 degrees. What odd are we to get the temparature right for year 2050? maybe we should add a +-10C to all estimates
No it doesn’t need to. The bill can be reintroduced and passed by the House of Representatives “with or without any amendments which have been made, suggested, or agreed to by the Senate”.
No. This just means that once the bills are reintroduced after a DD election and rejected, the form presented to the joint sitting will be the form last passed by the House of Representatives.
A session is the period of a Parliament since it was last prorogued. The current session of the Parliament has been going since 12 February 2008. At one time, the Parliament used to be prorogued several times during 1 Parliament. Nowadays the Parliament is usually only prorogued just prior to an election. This means that usually one parliament is one session.
#1610 dovif
I imagine this can happen if there are two adjacent systems, one cool and one warm, and the bureau can’t be sure where they’ll both be in 12 hours. The Melbourne BOM was embarrassed a few summers ago when they predicted 43 degrees the night before, revised it to 33 in the morning, and found it got to 43 after all.
It’s not really fair to compare short-term weather predictions with long-term climate predictions, but I don’t think it’s completely unfair either. Both use models and assumptions, and the earth is such a complex system that I am very doubtful about predictions that far ahead.
http://support.mozilla.com/en-US/kb/Unable+to+install+add-ons
Do you have the latest Firefox?
The amendments have already been agreed to by the Senate so technically the Government can ask for a double dissolution any time it likes. The only slight constitutional question is whether reintroduction of the bills in February might mean that the bills were not really finally rejected last week and therefore that rejection cannot be held to trigger a DD. I don’t think this is a very persuasive argument but the simple way around it would be to just wait the 3 months and pass the bills in the House of Representatives in the March sittings. Either that or wait til the bills are rejected in February and then wait another 3 months from there, reintroduce and wait til those are rejected.
Musrum. Many thanks. Your bloods worth bottling
Peace an quite at last. Let the pest bang away as much as he wants now.
You would have a point if they are trying to predict the Daily Maximum for Sydney on 2050-12-08.
But this seems to be only a restriction – it can include, or not, amendments passed by the Senate, but not other amendments. So far the Senate has passed nothing.
Okay, but doesn’t that make my point there essentially right? I.e., that the HoR doesn’t need to pass the amended bill twice and the Senate fail to pass it twice before it can be put up at a joint sitting. It can just pass the amended bill once after the election and then it can be put to the joint sitting.
Pedantic note: For compare short-term weather predictions with in #1612, read compare short-term weather predictions to.
The transcript of last night’s interview doesn’t seem to be up yet, but I was amused by this:
Very Prime Minisiterial strong language, I’m sure.
My point was that you can find anyone to say anything about any subject, put it on the front page with a photo and start a bootstrapper right there.
One person’s story – which we have no way of independently verifying (How do we know she voted Labor last time? How do we know she voted Liberal this time? If she did, how do we know she did what she did for the reasons she stated? How does this prove anything when there are 94,405 electors in the electorate, about 20,000 of whom failed to turn up?) – doesn’t mean much, if anything.
This woman is a demographic of one, bootstrapped onto a quack theory expressed in yesterday’s OO that there is a groundswell, a silent majority out there – once again, one of the OO’s and Murdoch’s favourite concepts: “The People” taking to the streets in loud revolution, now that they have found A Voice – wholly dissatisfied with Rudd just waiting for a Mad Monk to come along and “take the fight up to the government”, and that the by-election in Bradfield perfectly illustrated this. Don’t be surprised if we see her interviewed on TV tonight, follow-up articles describing Labor bullies who have found her phone number and are now harassing her at work, etc. etc.
It’s all so routine for the Murdoch media. The March On Washington, the regular Tax Revolts they run in their rags, the “Letter To Copenhagen From The Australian People” over the weekend are all examples. The grottier and less sophisticated these campaigns are, the better. They always involve “ordinary people”, basic citizens deprived of a say in how things are run. Never mind that we had an election in 2007. When it’s Labor (or Democrat) the government has to continually seek a fresh (and a refreshed) mandate for everything they do.
So we now have the story going around that “Nobody told me anything about how an ETS would work.” These are all completely anecdotal, like today’s 22 year-old nobody from Chatswood or wherever but, given the front page treatment, it seems the slow thinkers fall for this kind of snake oil on a regular basis. We now have the rump of support for the Liberals – 34% primary, and 44% 2PP at last measure – absolutely convinced Abbott is going to “give Rudd the fright of his life”. Some even believe they will easily win the next election. It’s absurd.
Absurd though it may be, Rudd does need to counter this feeling. If you let your enemy plot and scheme without dealing with the problem you’re asking for more trouble down the track. Better sooner rather than later. Little sores can fester into great gangrenous hole and amputated limbs if not properly attended to. So cockiness and hubris is not the appropriate response. Rather a measured and relentless pressure put on Abbott to deliver policy, not just bay at the moon, whingeing is the key. Completely ignoring your enemy can often lead to unexpected reversals.
As to Abbott’s Catholicism, I was told at Catholic school, “There is no absolution without contrition.” In other words, it’s not good enough just to confess your sins. To be forgiven you need to be truly sorry and to demonstrate your contrition by voluntarily accepting penance in good grace.
Abbott clearly thinks he can be forgiven by the Australian people without the penance part of the equation. He asks forgiveness for his “sins”, fully intending to continue his offensive ways. He has put himself in a position in politics where, in his own terms, he needs to be offensive to be effective. There isn’t enough time for niceities. So Abbott is in a quandry: he knows he must sin again, he has put himself in a position where this is ineviatble, yet he seeks forgiveness with this in mind. He is the perfect Jesuit Assassin: hoping for salvation in the after life while pursuing a career of Holy Hell and revenge against The Heretic in this one.
Poor Tony, it must be ripping his soul apart. Excellent!
No. The words of the Constitution allow the bill to be reintroduced “with or without any amendments which have been made, suggested, or agreed to by the Senate”. The Senate did agree to the amendments. The fact that they then rejected the amended bill is immaterial.
It depends on whether the reintroduction of the bill in February invalidates the already held trigger. If it’s found to then no passage of the amended bill at a joint sitting will be valid. Assuming it doesn’t, then yes it will only need to be passed by the House of Representatives and rejected by the Senate once for a joint sitting to be allowed to be called and the bill to be presented to it.
BB,
There seems to be a theme developing where PR consultants are presented as “real people”. More manipulation of the truth?
http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/12/08/telstras-real-customer-unmasked-as-former-spin-doctor/
BB
Well said,tho the one thing with Tone is that he is pig headed.
The MSM will make this out to be strength of character.From there the parallels with Rudd will start and the bootstrappers will run concurrently.
eg rudd wanting the UN job?? is proof that he will do anything to get it, whereas Tone is guided by higher motives.
The joker in the liberal pack is young malcolm,god bless his little socks
They did say that Melbourne was a good place for a village. The village mentality of AFL strikes again. Maybe they cant really help it as evolution has altered their genes and that the village mentality is in their DNA.
http://www.theage.com.au/sport/soccer/afl-block-to-world-cup-bid-20091209-khub.html
Actually thinking some more even if it does (in the legal sense) a joint sitting will still be able to be held. It’s the resulting law that might then be invalidated.
Musram
My point is that the Ecosystem is not a stationary thing, there are millions of chemical reaction happening every seconds, there is a lot of veriable that contribute to the eventual temparature.
We do not know for certain what will take place, we can only theorise and guess what will happen
That is what the meteologist do every day to predicts temparature tomorrow, it is the same as how the scientist predicts weather of the future, it is full of assumptions which might not eventuate…. like yesterday
Cuppa, all Qld’s Senator Joyce’s electorate, and most of it’s unusually blazing hot and humid, has been for days (most of the last 3 weeks, in fact) – even on the ranges – where the Coalition pwns the HoR seats. 38 predicted her today (c12 above normal). All on extreme fire alert – despite last week’s “good drop” (20mm), even the weed are shrivelling! Summer crops have shrivelled. 20 years, now, the drought punctuated by a few average rainfall & one above average.
“The climate’s been getting colder since” sometime in the 1990s. Yeah. Right. And the Pope’s a Mason.
Well, I find that a surprising interpretation of events. The Senate agreed to amend the bill in various ways but then failed to pass the bill with those amendments. I would have thought that, as far as the HoR is concerned, the end result is that no amendments have been agreed to by the Senate, since no amended bill can have been sent from the Senate to the HoR for its approval. I didn’t think that the amendments can be treated as being separate from the bill.
The much missed Alexander Downer (bummer, heh – if he’d been patient and waited around, he’d be a Shadow Minister now) crashed and burned as Opp leader because he seemed to assume that if he said something to one group of people noone else would ever find out about it.
So he was constantly saying foolish things to one audience and then having to put out bushfires with other audiences.
Tony seems to be travelling the same path – saying one thing to shockjocks and then backtracking with more reputable types.
So far, we’ve had “Climate change is crap” and “Copenhagen is Munich” – boldly claimed one day, scampered away from the next.
It may be dogwhistling, but it’s very poorly done.
OzPT,
You’d think that self-interest would enable (impel) the cockies to put aside the conservative blinkers and call BS on Joyce’s irresponsible rantings. Maybe they’re operating under the assumption that a bit of good old-fashioned agrarian socialism will ‘save’ them, ala long National Party tradition. But surely they’re worried when they see their land and crops sizzling to dust.
Maybe Abbott, as part of his Climate Action, can start a new ETS – Entitlement To Sin.
* Put a price on Sin
* The Sinners have to pay to sin
* Issue free the rights to sin to kick off the scheme, like himself and his Dad’s Army
* Then the Sin Certificates can be traded on the free market
They aren’t. The Senate agreed to amend the bill and then rejected the amended bill. Just because the Senate rejected the amended bill doesn’t meant the amendments weren’t made. For the purposes of s 57 of the Constitution, the bill can be reintroduced into the House with or without any amendmend agreed to by the Senate.
It isn’t required to for the purposes of s 57.
And both kinds of scientists – indeed, all scientists – check their predictions against the outcomes and then either i) alter their methodology to get rid of the bugs or ii) check their theory for soundness
With climate change, what scares the beejesus out of many scientists is that the changes they predicted are coming more quickly and with more severity. They have been too cautious in their predictions.
And its precisely for the reasons you enumerate – we’re talking very complex systems.
Finns 1630
The basis of that system has also been around for ages too…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johann_Tetzel
Is Australia alone here? Are there any other advanced countries where a major party is campaigning on climate change denial?
The bill rejected twice is the original legislation and this provides a DD trigger. However, the reason the Government is planning to re introduce the amended legislation agreed by the Turnbull Libs is so that the amended legislation will either be passed or rejected. If rejected, then it will no doubt be re introduced in May and may be another DD trigger in its revised form.
The Republicans in the U.S?
A lot of the arab oil countries dont believe in CC.
maybe Tone could go visit saudi arabia
Ever predictable Barrie Cassidy does The Onesiders routine again, trying to make out that the political tactic of scare campaigning originated with Paul Keating. Not a word about Howard’s finessing and relentless use of same.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/09/2765750.htm
They’ve vested interests of course.
Among other religious extremists he might feel right at home!
Happy Birthday, Vera. May all your wishes come true in 2010 and particularly between July-November. Hope you got a cuppa in bed this morning!!
Yeah, like Abbott, but You need new branding
What is this? When is Amigo Vera’s birthday?
FYI, it was 40 degrees in Penrith yesterday, only 50km west of the Sydney CBD
Antony disagrees with that, and I believe the grounds her referred to were that the amendments need to have passed at least one house in order to be presented at a DD joint sitting along with the bill. I haven’t read s57 so I don’t know how that fits in, but it’s what he said anyway.
Not to mention Ruddock and B. Bishop
It seems to be a common misconception that if scientists’ predictions are exceeded then the science is vindicated. This is not so. If you predict that such-and-such will happen at such-and-such a time and it happens significantly earlier than that then all it means is that the prediction is significantly in error. Scientists don’t make “cautious” predictions, since that would imply that they are doing science in the context of subjective outcomes (“good” or “bad”) rather than simply doing the best science and making the best predictions they can. There is no reason to suppose that scientific predictions related to global warming that are significantly in error will necessarily be underestimates of whatever we would consider a bad outcome. An error just means they can’t model the climate accurately and there’s no telling in which direction their next error will be.
Dario, in the words of the Clerk of the Senate, Harry Evans:
If that’s actually what Antony Green said he’s wrong. A quick perusal of the parliamentary records shows that the amendments were agreed to be the Senate and this is all that is required.
So how is an amendment ‘agreed to’ by the Senate?
The MSM has started to lampoon Abbott. Datsun? Not a good sign for Abbott:
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/tony-is-the-gomez-of-the-abbott-family-20091209-khxg.html
BB – great analysis of LL interview last night. I actually found it a bit frightening, especially when Abbott’s eyes narrowed and the cold look was back. He can’t hide his hatred of Labor for long, can he.
BTW – what does ‘pwnd’ stand for?
The Senate agrees to amend the bill. During the ‘committee’ stage of the bill the Senate votes on the question ‘that the amendment be agreed to”, if it votes yes then the amendment is agreed to.
Finns – it’s the same day as Hawkie and that’s today. But Vera is NOT 80!! – she a spry, young Amigo at the ready.
A couple of what, BH?
Oh a cuppa……my apologies.
LOL! Greg Hunt said in an interview with Fran Kelly that:
I am GUESSING that he mispoke, but maybe he was actually being honest.
Truly Freudian
Aristotle …. tch..tch..tch!! norty boy.
ShowsOn – we laughed at Hunt’s little slip, too. But we are to have an ETS from the Libs as soon as Obama has one. Seems as tho we must still play follow the leader to the US President and forget that the World consists of the UK/EU, NZ, etc. etc.
I think Abbott has pushed himself into a corner with this ‘no tax’ business.
BH, Many thanks.
This is many happy returns to Amigo Vera:
http://users.tpg.com.au/tjhpnq98//happyamigo1.jpg
We still ride, fight and love
The Queen meets Lady Gaga.
Errrrrr, why the Queen wants to meet herself?
Dio 1599
Thanks for being honest and pointing out that you do not have evidence that a carbon tax is better than an ETS. (The idea that there is such evidence was starting to take on a life of its own).
I am surprised that you link to
http://bravenewclimate.com/2009/11/09/fee-and-dividend-better/
and suggest that it makes “a very persuasive case” in favour of carbon tax over ETS.
It is a actually a very poor piece of argument. It seems to just say several controversial things without any evidence.
It also seems to be arguing for a particular fee-dividend system vs a particular ETS (maybe some proposed US one??). Thus it makes basic mistakes like saying there is no rebate to poor households from an ETS, and yet our CPRS does exactly that using the funds raised by auction.
I am honestly interested in any real reasons that a carbon tax tax might be better even though I think that the main reason for raising this secondary argument now is to delay getting any system put in place.
What a surprise…
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/out-of-pocket-liberals-want-limits-on-election-spending/story-e6frfku0-1225808537957
The Hunt interview was quite sad to listen to, since he had to explain why the ETS that he very strongly supported only last week is now a Massive New Tax that will grind the Mums and Dads into poverty. (And whenever I hear a politician start on about mums and dads I know they are bullsh!tting.) He dodged and wriggled but he couldn’t get off the hook that Abbott has put him on.
That’s the odd thing. Both the Shadow Minister for Climate Action and the Shadow Parliamentary Secretary for Climate Action are ETS supporters, Greg Hunt and Gary Humphries.
Hunt is an interesting case in point. There was much speculation that he was sidelined in the debate with the Government over the ETS because of concerns by the trogs. But, maybe he was not trusted to deliver a coherent message by the Turnbull forces. On this morning’s effort, they were right.
Lateline interview with Abbott was interesting.
He squirmed through all the Howard stuff…
Right…no mention of Minchin!
All this stuff about Australia/Rudd doing the ETS by itself, going alone, trophy to Copenhagen blah blah blah…Europe has had the ETS in place for years.
Fabulous piccie for Vera, Finns. She’ll love it.
Now need one of Ruddock, Bronnie, Abetz and Andrews riding off into the sunset.
Good article you linked by Mischa Schubert and some of the comments are very funny too.
The male journos might be loving the aggro, punchy Abbott but some of the women journos are having a ball writing about him. Here’s another today
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/i-love-tony-abbott–and-who-wouldnt-20091208-kho2.html
1661 – Minchin is right – the spending on election campaigns is ridiculous and should be curtailed. In my area the Labor candidate at the 2007 election had so many A frames and plastic banners for each polling booth that there would have been no room for anyone else’s banners etc if they had all been put up. So most of them were just wasted. Not to mention the mindless array of pictures on every stobie poll in sight. Who thinks that voters will be reading 15 banners or hundreds of pictures. Not to mention the endless run of personally addressed letters etc from the major parties.
Even Neil Mitchell had to admit this morning that Abbott had made his first mistake in bringing back Dad’s army. I didn’t agree with his comment however that most people would have welcomed back Howard rather than those chosen by Abbott.
Lost his government, lost his seat… but the people would welcome him back. Sure Neil, whatever.
Which is a much appreciated compliment… seeing as I didn’t watch Lateline last night!
Actually, I was basing my analysis on general observation of Abbott over the years and the number of plenary indulgences (good Catholic concept) that he has been seeking of late. That he conformed to type on Lateline is not surprising.
Abbott’s banking on his sins of this world being forgiven in the next. He has to believe that or he couldn’t be such a drongo in the here and now.
He’s given the base hope, like Latham gave his base hope. Both are arrogant and angry, but I think Abbott has the better of Latham in the “eating crow” stakes. Abbott is on a Holy Mission. He will accept any humiliation, any setback as the price of progressing that mission. Where Latham spat the dummy and left politics, Abbott will stay around in one form or another, doing it for God. There’s no retiring when you’re a fanatic bucking for eternity.
A carbon tax ensures that carbon emissions are taxed and relies on the desire of companies to reduce their costs to reduce their emissions. An ETS sets a limit on total emissions and charges for them. However, a company might simply emit without a permit, which suggests to me that there has to be a system of fines for illegal emissions, yet in the thousands of articles and comments I have read on the ETS this aspect has not been mentioned. This leads to two questions:
1) Is there a system of fines in the legislation?
2) How come I can think of this question but no one in the MSM AFAIK can?
That may be under the regulations, yet to be implemented
Great tweets of last week: This one from Michelle Grattan
LIKELY END POINT, HOCKEY LEADER , DUTTON DEPUTY, ABBOTT SHADOW TREASURER, LEGISLATION DEFERRED.
11:28 AM Nov 27th from web
Reply Retweet
Dario,
I don’t think it would be legal to create a system of fines by regulation.
No idea. Just throwing it out there.
There you go. Cheers, rua.
Triton said:
This is not exactly true. Usually for this sort of prediction one uses what is called a confidence interval. That is, an interval between an upper and lower bound to which you can assign a particular probability of accuracy. Therefore, the prediction is borne out if the actual value occurs within the interval nominated.
ruawake,
Thank you. That answers my first question.
Abbott seemed very displeaed with TJ at the end of that interview. This confirms he was.
Abbott open to sending more troops to Afghanistan if ‘strategy is clear’
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/abbott-open-to-sending-more-troops-to-afghanistan-if-strategy-is-clear/story-e6frg8yo-1225808547984
displeaed = displeased
Poor Tony. Was he expecting an Alan Jones suck-job?
Finns & BH
Thanks for the nice birthdays wishes
Finns I love your card
BH
hubby might have objected 
I didn’t have “cuppa” in bed this morning
Err, didn’t Abbott just roll his leader over climate change policy – so journo’s aren’t allowed to talk about it now?
What a bizarre thing to say. Totally in character though.
Happy b/day Vera. Born on the same day as Bob Hawke, what a privilege.
Psephos
Thanks, yep having the same birthday as Hawkie is cool.
My poor brother shares his with Howard
Musrum,
Lovely pressie from you too!
I think Bob1234 may have gone of his own accord as there has been no sign of him over the last 3 pages.
(and no I haven’t downloaded stfu yet)
Abbott reminds me of road-rage….in his case probably better to call it Rudd Rage.
He is obviously very easily frustrated and quick to take a bait. He will self-inflate and burst one of these days, just like Latham.
Yes, but if the changes they predicted are coming more quickly and with more severity then I can only assume that they haven’t occurred within the interval nominated. The outcomes either are or are not within their expectations.
Happy Birthday vera. It must be nice to share a birthday with the illustrious bobhawke. (My wife shares hers with eternal Gough)
Has anyone been watching sky today? Another leak.
The deal proposed is by the danes with help from mwxico and Australia. So does that mean kev knew all along our cuts might be 25%
OH those stupid, stupid Greens who blew the ETS.
http://skynews.com.au/topstories/article.aspx?id=403815
Thanks briefly
Gough is my all time favourite, lucky your missus
You should, it rocks!
One of many drafts apparently. I think it has been selectively leaked by the naysaying Saudis, for obvious reasons.
Hmmm Vera, not too sure about that unless Mushy little scripto can detect string. Methinks the snake has a new skin
Vera, what about Tiger? grrrrrrrrrrrrrr
Our sympathies to him, Vera. lol. You are so quick, girl. Luv the cuppa comment.
Fantastic – we thought that too. Why does Abbott think he can get away with saying anything. His one liners can be deadly but they need to be shown up for the shallowness of them.
Good afternoon all. Went for a trip and got the genuine article, have lost 3kgs, so not all negative.
I suggest that it would be relatively easy to reduce emissions by 5% without an ETS but that the real problem is that the policies to do so are not scaleable. In other words, what fixes 5% cannot fix 20%.
The Coalition’s game plan is therefore a time-and-motion nightmare, made worse by the fact that Obama will most likely have his ETS in place by 2012. What the Coalition has done is chew up the lead time required to ensure that we have a framework in place for the establishment of an ETS.
Happy Birthday!
If bob1234 really has taken off then that is a good result for those poor souls stuck on IE…
What a pleasant evening yesterday attending the Community Cabinet. What a formidable team.
They will be around for quite a while IMHO.
Small group of young Libs bet they wished they had not asked their questions after Julia finished with them. Brilliant lady, so cool calm and incisive when you ask a question about something which was not the actual policy put forward at the election.
Shows on here is another one for you to spam the Bolta with.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P70SlEqX7oY&feature=player_embedded#
What is stfu?
I think if bob1234 does re-invent himself with a new nick and modifies his behavior enough to avoid detection then that is a great result too.
Another one of TUTs heros being shredded by Senator Kerry.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61JZQa8P7AI
A bob killer
See Musrum’s post #1567
Or in other words, Shadow Ministers for eating Abbot’s faecal foccacia.
Happy birthday, Vera!
hmmmmm, Datsun?
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/12/07/newspoll-56-44-12/comment-page-34/#comment-375156
stfu
pu kcuf eht tuhs
Seems to me to be quite a clever Howardian tactic: get the moderates having to sell the policy safely knowing that the policy itself will have been determined by the conservatives.
Thanks Zoomster
Finns
Talk about Tiger! Things go from bad to worse! His mum-in-law carted off to hospital last night (been released now) Poor woman’s heart can’t take all of these Tiger carry ons.
BH
You need to hold Psephos’ reply to what stfu is up to a mirror of something i think
Thanks Musrum.
Mad Uncle of Snafu
Happy birthday Vera. What’s it like to turn 21, I’ve forgotten.
Howard always parked his “wet” ministers or shadows in environment to keep them harmlessly occupied: Puplick, Hill, Turnbull. Abbott is doing the same thing. The only portfolio the Howard-Abbott faction really care about is Smashing the Unions, aka IR, which Abbott has given to a true believer in Colonel Klink.
Aaahh, now I get it! Must be getting a bit thick in my dotage. Will try harder.
Bless you Gary
First day on the job and Barnyard manages to evoke both yellow and red peril in one comment????
“This is money that people want back. Most of them are from overseas. How much more money do you want to owe to these people? The biggest one being the Communist People’s Republic of China,” he said.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/09/2766117.htm
Did Abbott really say on radio this morning that the Earth is cooling?
If so, I hope that during the election Labor puts a bunch of large billboards with that quote in all inner city seats (like “working families have never been better off”) so that everyone can see that Abbott is arguing against reality.
Amigo, this must be you then waking up this morning:
http://www.esquire.com/cm/esquire/images/vera-farmiga-0607-lg.jpg
I said yesterday that we had to face that Kyoto had failed and look at another approach. I am somewhat relieved that that has been recognised:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/09/2765792.htm
This also confirms that one of the real drivers behind ETS was aid to poor countries, not a realistic way to solve CC, as I suspected. Again, I am not against helping poor countries, but we need to park that to get CC fixed. The two issues are related but not the same. If CC is not fixed all the aid in the world won’t save places like Bangladesh.
I said I was at the point where I would prefer a carbon tax, tariffs and direct regulation. That is still the case, but I’m glad to here there are sticks as well as carrotts in any ETS that may eb proposed. Otherwise people won’t comply.
Chris Curtis and Socrates
I am surprised that people did not think there was a serious penalty system for companies that pollute without permits under an ETS.
This question was actually raised quite often in public in 2007 when ideas of an ETS were first being widely discussed. However, it is essential that it is there (of course) and it is fairly easy to implement in a satisfactory way so the questions quickly went away.
And if the question comes up again it is straightforward to answer so there is not incentive for the MSM or Delayers to make an issue of it.
In theory Ruddock was supposed to be of the left faction. I think he was the most successfully captured by Howard.
Vanstone having to push the budget slashing in higher ed in the first term was another example I was thinking of.
Tony Abbott says Copenhagen summit is a PR stunt
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,26462448-5003402,00.html
I think Tony must be reading Bolt articles.
Happy Birthday Vera
Abbott now is hoping to recruit an army of supporters
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/09/2766252.htm?section=justin
If a fair international ETS is eventually installed then it can still be effective, can still aid poor countries and still allow rich polluters time to ramp down from their current excessive amounts.
A fair system would simply auction permits worldwide for the right to pollute up to the desired global cap. The proceeds of the auctions could then be delivered per capita to everyone.
This cuts pollution worldwide. It distributes wealth to the poor. And it allows the existing big polluters that can afford to keep going to some extent to pay the appropriate amount for that right.
I heard on ABC (Perth) news this morning that the “Howard Battlers” are set to return to the Liberal fold as “Abbott’s Army”.
Apparently the Blue Collar set are all het up about that uppity climate change tax thingy of Rudds that Tony’s been telling them about and they don’t like it one little bit. So there.
He’ll be praying no doubt that they’ll be the Salvation Army.
How about two varieties of yellow peril with a Muslim dog-whistle half pike?
HELLO WAYNE
Yeah, FulvioS, I can just imagine the blue collar set wanting a rerun of IR problems under Colonel Klink (such an apt name for Abetz – thanks Psephos).
And not only the blue collar set – I’ll be out there again, making heaps of noise, for my 2 grandkids who ‘got done’ in the last little bout of workchoices.
Most of the Howard Battlers actually went back to voting for Labor in 1998. Then in 2007 ALL of them went back thanks to WorkChoices.
Come election day Abbott (if he’s still leader, which I doubt) will be so firmly nailed to WorkChoices that he won’t be able wriggle his toes. That’s the only issue that the socially-conservative working class (aka Howard battlers) will care about.
Well it isn’t JUST that, the other issue is that HOCKEY is the one who is meant to be complaining about debt. The finance minister is responsible for the funding and administration of government departments.
So even on day 1 Joyce is just demonstrating that he has no idea what finance ministers actually do.
Not to mention, at the next election another 3+ years of Tony’s hopeful demographic will have died off. Yep, he’s on a winner…
Harry Evans, Clerk of the Senate, on ABC’s National Press Club address. Excellent viewing.
For someone who is supposed to be independent, he took a good dig at the coalition backflip on the ETS
Wonder how long Joe will be able to bite his tongue with Barnyard.
I bet business and exporters are just loving Barnyard’s big mouth … NOT. He will end up making the Oppn look more foolish than it already does. Besides that he seems to be quite dangerously flippant.
It’s called sleep and a life. I realise these two concepts are very foreign to PBers
Abbott’s Barmy Army.
Bob, you’re my favourite concern troll, I’d miss you if you vanished from Poll Bludger!
Where else would we find a Greens supporter to argue with?
In order to see that my fair worldwide ETS system is not economically outrageous
the amounts in the near future would be as follows.
Current worldwide carbon price about $US20 per tonne. Current pollution output about 24 billion tonnes per year. Current world population about 6 billion.
Thus a fair international ETS would raise (in the first few years) $US480 billion each year. Thus every human would receive $US80 per year in dividend. This would be a useful amount to a poor Australian family but a great investment in the well-being of most families in poorer countries around the world.
As the caps tighten in the coming years the scheme sells less permits but can expect more money for each of them and so would return the same order of income to each person.
I love stfu so very, very much
Dr Good
How do you measure whether a company had polluted and how much CO2 they have released? We are going to have a carbon police force?
What if an Australian company send their manufacturing plant to India, who is arguing that they need to increase their CO2 emition, does that solve the Australian company’s problem
How much does a car release, do all cars release the same CO2
One thing I noticed!
The WA contingent did badly in Abbott’s reshuffle, if you exclude Mesma!
Keenen and Hasse both got demoted(Hasse altogether).
The Mad Monk and Minchin obviously don’t care about holding marginal seats in WA next time!
Dario
STFU
Andrew Southcott got shafted too – the Libs can kiss Boothby goodbye!
Right back at you!
Dario: I’d never tell you to STFU!
But Desert Fox can STFU!
It will be an electorate on my watch list at the next poll, that’s for sure
You are too kind
Well, at least DF doesn’t spam all day long
As someone who’s lived in Sturt for a couple of decades and now Adelaide, I don’t think Boothby or Sturt will fall to Labor.
True!
It’s better to ignore Bob and his ramblings!
I read all of the Willigee thread the other evening, Bob vs Frank is a cracker!
Is Mia Handshin definitely not running in Sturt next time?
BIGGEST LOSERS IN ABBOTT’S SHAKEUP:
Michael Ronaldson
Steve Ciobo
Sharman Stone
Michael Keenen
Andrew Southcott
John Forest
Peter Lindsay(Abbott obviously has given up on retaining Herbert)
Barry Hasse
Another rumour: Sharman Stone is so pissed off that she’s going to cross the floor with Malcopops over the ETS early next year.
She didn’t put her name forward for preselection, because she’s pregnant or wants to start a family(either one).
Well if you want to admit defeat, it’s your choice. All you’re doing is reinforcing that i’m right. If you can’t counter-debate, that’s your problem.
Bummer. She would have been ministry material.
Dario
If I spend too long on this site I get a headdache
PB is the only place where I can hear good things being said about the NSW Labor Government. this site is so left winged that I am surprise there is no statutes of Lenin, Mao and Stalin erected on this site
Dr Good
Did you read the whole article?
http://skirsch.wordpress.com/2009/11/08/fee-and-dividend/
An ETS is too easy to rort and can easily do nothing. It won’t create any certainty about exactly how much carbon will cost and so won’t drive investment. It will however create huge amounts of money for traders like Goldman Sachs though so I’m sure it will be lobbied for very hard.
That would be hilarious… can’t see it happening though
You certainly won’t hear any from me! Been in power too long and are due for a clean out. That said, the Libs here are no better. At least we have a Premier that is easy on the eye, if only for a year or two at most
She has started a family.
I don’t think she wants to run for Sturt again because she knows that even if Labor wins it in 2010, it would always be a marginal seat.
Somebody tell Barnyard Joyce that the price of Xmas hams and puddings is already up
Not because of action on climate change, but because of inaction:
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/price-taking-ham-out-of-christmas-lunch/story-e6frf7l6-1225808441899
NSW Labor? Left? Where?
And a carbon tax won’t create any certainty over how much CO2 is emitted
So is she still open to running elsewhere?
I’ve no faith in Keneally, she’ll just be warming the seat for Fatty O’Barrell!
Sartor as Premier at least would have been slightly exciting!
Dario
You can tailor the level of the tax after looking at what’s happening to emissions.
Possibly for a state seat.
Ah yes, but he’s been talking with Dr Ian… when it’s hot that’s just weather, and when it’s cold, that’s proof the climate isn’t changing.
And you can tailor the number of permits in an ETS also
Boys, boys, boys – stop playing with those norty words. You’ll have to get your mouths washed out with soap. lol
Tanner vs Barnyard!
They’ll have to impose the mercy rule before the end of the first quarter!
Spare a thought for Sloppy Joe, he’s got to prepare a budget with the man from Hicksville.
Uggh. Give me a hottie on the 6 o’clock news any day. Sartor’s ugly mug is just too much.
But this doesn’t give businesses certainty. An ETS means businesses know that the price of permits will slowly increase, so they have time to plan and invest accordingly.
If Governments are changing taxes every second year businesses have no idea when and how much to invest.
Good luck to her then!
1761 – Name names. You’ll be going dovif.
Now Abbott says ratifying the Copenhagen treaty could cost $400 billion:
http://www.news.com.au/national/copenhagen-deal-could-cost-us-400bn-says-abbott/story-e6frfkvr-1225808638674
This is a sign that the Liberals will oppose ratifying the Copenhagen treaty, just as they opposed the Kyoto treaty.
Under the draft, Australia would be asked to lower its emissions by 25 per cent within a decade.
I guess Abbott never did Maths in High school. If 5% = $120 million 15%=$360 and 25%=$600, if you are making wild estimates, at least make them correct.
“http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/copenhagen-deal-could-cost-us-400bn-says-abbott/story-e6freuzr-1225808638674″
Rich countries would need to reduce their emissions by 80 per cent by 2050.
Mr Abbott said such a plan would have a significant impact on Australia under the Rudd Government.
“Just to get a five per cent reduction in emissions, Mr Rudd wants to whack a $120 billion tax on us,” Mr Abbott said.
“To get a 15 per cent or 25 per cent reduction in emissions on Mr Rudd’s logic, it’s going to be an even bigger tax – perhaps a $300 or $400 billion tax.
SO
At the start, business will just try to work out how best to rort the ETS the most cheaply to see if they need to invest or not. As the price of permits becomes higher, they will have more incentive to fake carbon credits.
I’m guessing it won’t work very well at all. The CO2 targets won’t be enough anyway so it doesn’t really matter anyway.
I just love this in Crikey today –
Says it all about the Mad Monk really.
Harry Evans, Clerk of the Senate, just took a dig at the Rudd government on National Press Club on the ABC…
The bikie who tortured and murdered his wife (and filmed it) has been sentenced to 30 years without parole:
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26462127-5006301,00.html
How will they fake carbon credits?
How do you know this? Can you predict 10 years into the future?
I was discussing the ETS and the Coalition’s approach with some farmers the other day. They had been working on agriculture-based carbon sequestration and were pissed off with the failure of the Coalition to pass the ETS package. They were dead keen on the idea of a market based/price approach to addressing the CO2 issue.
I suppose they will now have to start all over again working with Hunt to develop yet another variant of the Sugar Cane Industry Restructure Package rort.
Yes, and of course they would never dream of dodging a Carbon Tax…
Why not a trillion Tony? Or a trillion trillion?
He did? I must have missed it.
dovif
Your maths is incorrect.
You can’t extrapolate a 5% reduction as a baseline as it is not really a 5% reduction; it is 5% on top of projected growth rate so it’s really about a 20% reduction which will cost $120B.
A 25% reduction is really about a 40% reduction so I’m guessing it would cost about $250B.
He should’ve at least said $500 billion, which is about as much as the GST will raise over the next decade.
Gary
I am going to nominate Greensborogh and Frank to begin with
I do not think they have ever been to NSW or outside their home
But you KNOW a Carbon Tax will work. Oh goodie!
Always wanting to be the centre of attention, even in retirement. Bye bye Harry.
Dovif – you haven’t been reading PB properly then. Most of us have said we want NSW Labor gorn because it’s the only way they will renew it. It will be difficult voting against them but then we don’t have to do more than pick up a ballot slip if that’s what we want to do. I can’t remember too many here saying they are happy to keep the status quo.
Abbott discussing climate action with his Shadow Minister for Climate Action:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPm19z307J0
I strongly doubt that a doubling of the emissions cuts will just double the cost.
I don’t know for sure, but I just doubt the relationship would be perfectly linear. More likely, bigger short term cuts would increase costs exponentially, because you would have to make bigger cuts in more areas of the economy in a shorter time frame. Which would mean much bigger investment using currently available technologies which would be more expensive than future technologies.
Another thing for Turnball to cross the floor over!
Just been over at his blog! The Young Liberals/Minchin’s bovver boys have been busy, spamming it with their nasty comments!
All the people backing Malcolm are Labor voters!
SO
They explain how to do it in the article I linked and the video embedded in it. It’s quite easy and investment banks will be well paid to find loopholes. There is no way a bureaucracy will be able to police what forests would really have been cut down anyway and which ones wouldn’t have been, as well as all the other carbon credit options.
Dario
It’s much harder to dodge a direct tax like the GST. Obviously they will still try though.
I can’t see how he could be the centre of attention when hardly anyone in Australia would know who he is.
I take it most of them are saying that he shouldn’t dare speak out against the elected leader of the party are they?
Shows on
The problem will be that Rudd expect Australian population to increase by 10 million by 2050, so a 50% cut is actually closer to a 70% cut
And then you will have to replace all the Coal plant with ………………
Yeah that is going to be a lot of money
Doesn’t stop him from wanting it
I get the feeling Abbott’s commitment to agreed targets (stated last week) is a non-core promise.
His super dooper scheme will only pretend to cut by 5%.
Well our ETS doesn’t count existing forrests for credits, they must be new plantations from land that had been legally cleared (before most land clearing was banned by the federal government)
SO
That’s true. The “lower hanging fruit” will be used first so it would not be linear but I had no way of knowing how to correct for it. There might be some economies of scale, which could drop the costs if they had to build huge wind farms etc so I took the easy option and just did a linear calculation.
Well of course it is because coal in Australia is so damn cheap! Only idiots like Tony Abbott say it won’t cost a lot of money.
Yes!
Turnball has committed an act of high treason, how dare he disrespect their new and great leader Abbott!
It will be a target that they have no intention to meet. Any questions on failure to meet the target will be met by “You want to destroy jobs”.
George Orwell, Climate Sceptic! [read from bottom to top (it was written in the nothern hemisphere)]
3.12.39 Frost last night. Today fine, windy, coldish. The common lane waterlogged almost knee-deep in parts. Planted another briar root. Note that on post hammered in on 18.10.39 fungi are growing (the horizontal hard kind that look like ears) about 1” broad, so evidently these things grow fairly rapidly. 7 eggs.
2.12.39 Fine, still, not very warm.[does not fit with hockey stick] 9 eggs. Sold 20 @ 4/4. Total this week: 56.
1.12.39 A little windier & colder than yesterday [Bolt must be right … geddit, right?]. Did some more weeding, turned the compost heap, planted another root of briar, this time a much older one. 9 eggs [link between egg collection and el nino perhaps? Surely not sun spots?].
30.11.39 Very mild & still [alert East Anglia … or not … they may slag me off like they did Evelyn Waugh. He did try to explain that the ‘feather footed vole’ was not a metaphor for a denialist stance on lack of impact and therefore was not arguing against the need for adaptation]. A very few light spots of rain. Bats were out (noticed midges flying about the other day, in spite of the recent frosts). Dug a little more of the weedy patch. Made up the front part of the path. Pruned the white rambler, I hope correctly. Have not seen or heard the owls for some time past. 8 eggs.
SO
There will be international trading of carbon credits so every country would be involved. If I was Indonesia, I’d say that they were planning to cut down every tree over the next 10 years so any tree they don’t cut down can be filched as a carbon credit. It’s as easy as that to rort it.
Malcolm should just delete the YLs comments – why give them air.
But you are ignoring that if they say they are going to cut down every tree, then they could easily double or triple their emissions, because they will have no natural abatement.
So how will THEY find other emissions cuts, while still growing their economy, when they have effectively sold their abatement overseas?
I don’t think you have thought this through.
dovif,
If one believed your claptrrap NSW doesn’t have any schools, hospitals, roads, police or other Government services. Everyone apparently lives in a cave. Every problem from herpes to too much sugar in your coffee is apparently the Labor Governments fault.
The whinge mentality of NSW posters is extraordinary. Us outsiders with an insight into reality just laugh at the carping complainants of NSW and get on with life in our land that be girt by sea. Seems to be a lot of pricks that need ballooning up in NSW.
Do you really think their trolling is going to stop him crossing the floor next year and continuing to tell everyone that Abbott’s policy is a face?
Evan14
We have witness one of the funniest episode of Australian politics in the last year
Rudd has taken Labor so far to the right (refugee, Workchoice lite, Schools etc) that Malcolm Turnbull decided to try and outflank him to the left. For about 3 months the Lib was the left wing party in federal politics.
I really did not know what to do with myself
Really? In what way other than a CPRS, keeping in mind John Howard proposed an ETS and took it to the last election?
You have serious barometer issues
I figure Turnball is waiting around for the Abbott experiment to crash badly in the next 6 months, otherwise he might as well become an independent and do deals with Rudd for extra infastructure funding in Wentworth!
Abbott would consider sending more troops to Afghanistan:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/abbott-open-to-sending-more-troops-to-afghanistan-if-strategy-is-clear/story-e6frg8yo-1225808547984
I don’t think he realises that about 2/3 of Australians want the troops currently there brought home.
Well , now you will. We have the most right wing opposition we’ve ever had. Good luck with that.
SO
1. Indonesia won’t have to make any binding emissions cuts. They will have voluntary targets as they are a developing nation.
2. They won’t cut down any trees. They just pretend they were going to. That way they maximise their carbon credits and don’t have to do anything.
It’s a sweet deal.
I’m sure once he gets told that fact he will reverse his stance quick smart and say that his previous position was just a ‘slip of the tongue’, and shouldn’t be held against him
It’ll be amusing if Turnbull regains control of the Liberal Party leadership and boots all the rightwingers to the backbench. The reaction from their crazy right wing supporters would be a sight to behold.
Only if that is allowed into the scheme
Pretentious little … Liberal.
One piece of good news for haters of the radio shockjocks!
Steve Price mightn’t be returning to 2UE next year! He’s having a hissy fit over his salary being cut by 30-40%. Every other 2UE announcer has agreed to the pay cut, but not “The Angry Ant”. Contract negotiations are said to be continuing!
That’s Communism!
The AAP reports that he has indeed quit. His last day is Friday.
Perhaps Singo will take pity on Price and give him a gig on “Liberal Radio”. He’d fit right in there with Jones/Hadley/Smith/Morrison.
This is the part where your argument falls down. If they SAY they are going to cut down all their trees, then this will be taken into account when estimating their future emissions, which means they will have to make massive cuts in other areas.
Don’t let the door hit you on the way out
Oh no, he might come back to Melbourne.
I thought that being an obedient little right winger he’d be a natural fan of WorkChoices. Of course they always are … until it bites them personally.
HA HA
But would his wife still work for Hockey?
Harry Evans is the best Clerk of the Senate we’ve ever had. He’s annoyed governments of all pursuasions. He’s very well respected on both sides of politics.
I know he might criticise the current government so in your books he’s automatically a pariah, but meh, some of us look beyond partisan politics
Tony really went out of his way to mend fences with women in his Shadow Cabinet appointments.
http://www.alp.org.au/media/1209/mssow080.php
http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/people/price-is-not-right–2ue-lose-star-i-n-contract-row-20091209-kj9k.html
Doesn’t really make sense. Under WorkChoices you could be offered a pay cut and told ‘take it or leave it’. That’s exactly what Mr Price did here. He didn’t take it and left.
That’s fine by us Sydneysiders
Tony really went out of his way to mend fences with women in his Shadow Cabinet appointments.
Yeah, two “Bishops”!
Take that, Julia/Nicola/Penny/Kate.
I wholeheartedly agree with Harry Evans when he says that television ruined the integrity of politics.
He got stung by the principle of WorkChoices: given the unenviable choice between a paycut and no job.
Piece somewhere saying that Singleton wants Price and Mitchell for a radio station he wants to start in Melb. Will be same as 2GB. Poor Melbourne – they’ll get the feeds from Alan Jones no doubt.
It could be worse, 2UE might hire Milne as his replacement!
Just kidding!
Boerwar
I had a good cackle at that red neck turkeys video you posted
But where was Barnaby?
What? 3AW isn’t an anti-Labor propoganda vehicle?
4 out of 20 on the Government’s side is really nothing to crow about either. Also, from memory, all promotions and new appointments have been men.
No. They don’t have to make any cuts at all. They are a developing country.
Someone should start a progressive radio station to take on the outdated redneck format.
Now Abbott will say “we have icebergs in WA so the globe must be cooling”
A giant iceberg is drifting towards Western Australia, impressing scientists with its capacity to travel so far north while still largely intact.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/giant-iceberg-headed-for-wa-20091209-kj87.html
Gusface
thanks for birthday wishes
It’d be nice if 2UE replaces the angry ant with a progressive, or someone who isn’t a Liberal Party hack! Sadly commercial radio doesn’t hire left wingers.
cuppa,
24/7 of “progressive rock”. I don’t think so.
Vera, Happy Birthday from me!
No. They WILL need to make cuts at some point in the future, and by saying they are going to chop down all their trees those cuts will just be bigger.
Labor voters/Green voters obviously listen to either the ABC or FM radio!
Listen to talkback on commercial AM stations, you don’t hear any fans of Rudd(yes, I know they rig the phone calls).
vera
Consider it my birthday pressie.
Barnaby is back in the house, fixin’ to shoot them damn chooks that is maken all that noise ahtside when he is tryin to damn well concentrate reel hard on his next retail opinin.
Cheers Evan
ltep,
So you agree that Labor has a better track record than the Libs on promoting women of talent.
The Bishop twins as your token women in cabinet is hardly a ringing endorsement for the Liberal Party.
SO
Their targets will be based on their 2000 or 1990 emissions levels, just like everyone elses including Australia’s. What they say about cutting down trees is irrelevant to the targets they get.
Vera, it’s a pleasure!
No, I don’t mean a progressive rock station. Well, maybe a little progressive rock, thrown into the mix of an overall soundtrack – music and editorial – designed to appeal to the demographic 25-50.
Forget the over 50s; they belong to the rust-belt of conservatism. The cohort 25-50 could be anyone’s for the taking!
So if the Mad Monk believes the earth is cooling, what’s the point of Greg Hunt bringing out a “Climate Action” Policy in February?
Re the cost of 25% reduction v 5% reduction, the tresury stuff has some interesting modelling.
This article by David Gruen explains some of the modelling and how to interpret it:
http://www.treasury.gov.au/documents/1439/PDF/David_Gruen_CEDA_Speech_11_November_2008.pdf
Here is the exec summary. – best to work from Garnaut 25% figures.
http://www.treasury.gov.au/lowpollutionfuture/report/html/00_Executive_Summary.asp
Make of it what you will however the following from the Gruen paper is interesting:
Evan14 – 2GB makes 3AW look like a bunch of lefties so Singleton probably thinks he will get huge Melb. ratings if he hires Price and then pinches Mitchell too and turns them into Alan Jones clones. They are almost that now but not quite.
Boerwar
I’d forgotton that Barnaby is now in charge of the books. A lot of hard brain work to cope with now and he don’t need them darn turkeys disturbing his figuring out stuff.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_7Se7iswAanA/SFFcI9PQy0I/AAAAAAAABJE/Fn0h4ScGw-8/s320/elmer_fudd.jpg
Don’t even try and make sense of it. It’s obvious all he wants to do is confuse people and scare them into voting for him.
You’re wrong. If they say they are going to cut down every tree in the country, then this will be taken into account when estimating what their future emissions will be.
Is Indonesia the world’s third greatest emitter of greenhouse gases?
Plus, given that Indonesia is drying up its swamps and releasing scads of methane (20 times more powerful than CO2), MIGHT IT ACTUALLY BE THE WORLD’S SINGLE GREATEST EMITTER NATION?
Might not Australia’s best contribution be to work on a direct strategic climate partnership with Indonesia, rather than wacking its funds into some international slush fund, possibly one run by perhaps the most inefficient organization in the world: the UN?
Cuppa – speak for yourself young fella. It’s just the over 50s who like being scared witless by the dogwhistling that are R-BCs and love the RW shockjocks.
Televising Parliament has been the worst thing that has ever happened to Australian democracy.
I mentioned last night that Tony Abbott was getting excited about the “swing” to the Liberal party in the “working class” booths in the by-elections, and The Australian has done a piece today suggesting this “swing” could be a problem for the ALP, well here’s Antony Green’s view:
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2009/12/bradfield-and-higgins-which-booths-swung.html
No, television in general is.
Oh Boerwar, I see you’re about, we got 14mls last night.
It seems every time this board lights up, we get some decent rain, must be Mother Earth crying over events in Canberra.
Television turned politics from a battle of ideology to a battle of personalities. It turned intellectual debate in to 5 second soundbytes.
Television ruined Australian democracy long ago, as well as the parties within it.
As much as I prefer Rudd over Howard, Rudd is the most shining example of it.
Steve Price did the afternoon shift on 3AW before he was whisked off to the bright lights of Sydney. They tried Stan Zemanek in Melbourne afternoons which was an abject failure and terminated after 3 months or so.
Laws never penetrated the Melbourne psyche. There has never been an audience for Alan Jones either.
This Singleton plan has “pissing away money” written all over it.
*cough* 75 *cough*
Dr Good (1725 at 12.50pm)
That partly answers my second question, though I still think the issue of penalties should have received more coverage than the zero I have seen. It’s not as if every other law is outomatically obeyed by 100 per cent of the people.
Diogenes
The import of abatement credits (which is what you are talking about) will be severely limited in a global scheme. Abatement credits from land use change may be credited on a national basis and possibly be sold between States because the State will have figures on clearing rates relative to the base year and any reduction from that counts as a reduction from their targets – if they exceed their State targets, these credits can be sold. But trade between individuals will be difficult to police and verify and probably won’t be permitted as an import credit.
Sequestration credits (ie improvements in carbon through trees or soil carbon etc relative to the base year) are perfectly legit and can be traded. If it’s cheaper to grow trees in a developed nation than here then it is a good way to reduce global emissions at low cost. Cutting down these trees in the future will count against that country in their global obligations so there is a reason for them to police it.
One other thing to consider is that credits are a good way for a company to get foreign investment; if the credits are dodgy and not accepted in other countries, this form of investment will dry up quickly. It is therfore in a developing countries interests to properly police carbon transactions and accounting.
Abatement (and REDD) credits work well if developed nations don’t have a target because they are an effective mechanism for transferring technology to developing countries and helps at reducing their emissions so they are better placed when they do have a target.
The problem with importing credits is that our actual emissions will increase while this is being done. This is likely to come back and haunt us when those countries we purchase the credits from have their own targets and need those credits themselves to meet their commitments.
He and minchin would probably say something like this :
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoons/WuerkM/2009/WuerkM20091112_low.jpg
Re 1874: Antony now agrees with what I have been saying since Sunday. The by-elections did not show “a swing to the Liberals”, as claimed by Abbott and The Australian (working hard for the Libs as always). All the by-elections showed was that, given a choice between a Liberal and a Green, a significant number of Labor voters, maybe a quarter to a third, will choose the Liberal. This tendency correlates to income – the lower their income, the less likely Labor voters are to support the Green in the absence of a Labor candidate. Since this situation will not arise in a general election (and if it does 90% of Labor voters will follow the Labor HTV anyway), this is of very little relevance to anything except fuelling Labor-Green mutual loathing.
They haven’t made any allowance for Australia’s emissions being 3x European countries per capita. Why on Earth would they make an exception for Indonesia?
Boerwar
Indonesia has a lower total emission than we do.
I know Keating didn’t want it, but whatever its bad points they don’t override our being entitled to watch our own parliament.
Psephos,
“Labor-Green mutual loathing”.
It’s much deeper than that.
This is the media we are talking about. They have barely reported how the overall system works, as they consider it complex and boring, and they are right!
Democracy survived 1975. Television has destroyed Parliament as a democratic institution. It’s now just a glorified TV studio, where the PM and the LOTO compete to put 5-second grabs onto the 6pm news. House of Reps serves no other function at all. The Senate still has some life in it because the PM and the LOTO are not present and because the government of the day usually doesn’t have a majority there.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir/20090907-fdxk.html?selectedImage=1
Ian Plimer is talking on A-Pac at the moment (at Sydn Institute with Gerard Henderson)
This will go down as a legend in Australian political history being the shortest political suicide statement:
“If we win the election I’ll be regarded as a genius, if we don’t win I’ll probably be political roadkill”
This really encapsulate what Abbott is really about, which is NOTHING, except picking a fight.
Dave55
You can also claim carbon credits for NOT cutting down a forest that you claim you were planning to cut down (in Waxman-Markey anyway).
And as you say, it’s easy to avoid making structural reforms in Oz by just buying carbon credits in a developing country.
Televising parliament did not do much for TV either.
Aristotle
All to the good. We got a dust settler and a fire slower-downer which was also good.
Good – no sensible bod should be subjected to the rants of Alan Jones who I find a very hypocritical bloke.
More and more, Abbott seems to be setting himself up for disaster, perhaps in an effort to make the next Liberal leader seem brilliant in comparison?
http://www.nicholsoncartoons.com.au/cartoons/new/2008-12-08%20Bring%20Barnaby%20Joyce%20inside%20tent%20Turnbull%20600.jpg
Nicholson is great at taking the piss
Dario,
Maybe Abbott is running a carollary of that old chestnut of “How do you make a small fortune? Start with a very big one and let Abbott manage it”.
I’m 90% certain Abbott won’t last until the election. Either Turnbull will stage a counter-coup, or the right will instal Hockey to prevent a Turnbull comeback.
Who is that on the left of the Nicholson cartoon? Why is Nelson there?
I wonder whether UberAbbott consulted his prelates before deciding to commit to more troops to Aghanistan? If not, they may wish to discuss some policy issues in relation to time/timing:
1. The war will be finished before the Liberal Party gets the chance.
2. The UberAbbott will be a squashed rabbit on the roadside of Australian political history before the Liberal Party gets the chance.
3. Hell will freeze over before the Liberal Party gets the… uh, no, something confusing about this policy context.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-14357-108.htm
Bradfield Lib 2CP has blown out to 65%.
Crikey, is she not a woman?
http://resources2.news.com.au/images/2008/05/02/va1237305522378/Gail-Kelly-Westpac-CEO-6016907.jpg
hmmm, she does look like and man and she’s ex South Africa.
U.S. health-care bill a step closer to passing the Senate:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/12/08/senate-sinks-abortion-ame_n_384846.html
If so, that would be a major win for Obama. No president since Johnson has achieved major health-care reform, even though most have tried.
[Maybe Abbott is running a carollary of that old chestnut of “How do you make a small fortune? Start with a very big one and let Abbott manage it”.
Quite possibly
Turnout up to 77% and 78%, with absent/provisionals still to be counted/included.
The turnout is always less at by-elections. Considering all of this, I think the number of Labor voters who didn’t vote has been overstated.
Psephos
It would have to be an old one when Turnbull was installed.
Bob1234
I agree with you to some extent. Although a lot of ALP voters did not turn
up and vote formal, it seems that very few did so because they were
ALP voters. Most did so just because all voters are less likely to turn
up at a by-election.
see my post 1551
Gawd help me – my OH is listening to Plimer and says he can see why Barnaby Joyce, Alan Jones and the other sceptics believe him. He appears to be so plausible.
So why is that Plimer has refused to debate climate scientists about his findings if he thinks he’s so right.
He said a moment ago that CO2 has been rising since 1998 but the earth has been cooling since that time. I think he forgot to read the papers this morning.
Ah yes, it’s from Dec 2008. Plus ca change…
Because he’s a fraud and they’d tear him to bits.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/12/08/republicans-forced-to-rev_n_384680.html
Even TJ managed to blow him to pieces in a 10 minute interview a while back. As you say he is nothing but a fraud.
He also wrote in his book that between 1912 and 1962 average global temperature increased by 0.5 degrees, yet this can not be attributed to volcanic activity.
In other words, in Plimer’s own book that supposedly says that AGW isn’t happening, he concedes that global warming is caused by human induced CO2 emissions.
Dio 1892
You keep suggesting that it is a cop out for Australian polluters to earn credits overseas instead of making structural changes here.
I think this is wrong.
1) structural changes are in the medium to long term and are done in response to future caps (and likely high permit prices) and they do not result in short term pollution reduction. Big Australian companies take account of this and plan ahead when the regulatory context is settled and clarified.
2) getting credit for overseas abatement is a short term and mostly short lived activity
and would be expected to give immediate pollution reduction benefits (eg tree planting or forest rescuing).
Even if Australian companies are engaging in overseas abatement they will still also be planning ahead for structural change.
However, if they do engage in overseas abatement that is good because it is vitally important that we get the carbon out of the atmosphere as quickly as possible and rescuing a third-world forest is a fantastic way of doing this. It preserves biodiversity and results in a more robust and very environmentally friendly carbon sequestration sink.
Maybe I’ve misunderstood, but the second statement doesn’t follow from the first.
That’s a tad contradictory. You say a lot of Labor voters didn’t turn up/voted formally. Then you say by-elections always see less turn up.
Absent/provisionals haven’t been counted and the turnout is up to 77% and 78%.
Someone was earlier complaining about the lack of Ohio State (oops NSW) political commentary on this website.
Direct commentary is unnecessary.
If you want to know what is happening in NSW you simply replace certain terms with others:
Abbott replace with Keneally
Leader of Opposition insert instead Premier
right wing factional war-lords replace with right wing factional war-lords
Turnbull replace with Rees
shadow cabinet replace with cabinet
whackaloon replace with whackaloon
etc etc
Keneally has got the creative juices of You-tubers flowing again:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNBcVmeU2v8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_rYn0In2zqA
There are no absent votes at by-elections and there won’t be more than 100 provisional votes admitted to the count. The turnout will scrape to 80% at best.
LOL!
OB1 Kenneally
“I am a puppet” HAHAHAHAHAHA
Great stuff!
Thanks Antony
Bob, the turn out in Higgins at the last federal election was about 93.7%.
Thus lots of voters did not turn up at a by-election, which is usual.
The question I attempted to answer in the stats of my 1551 post is to what extent
the people who usually vote ALP were more likely than others to stay away.
The answer was “yes” but only very slightly more likely.
So, 80% of 94,000 (Bradfield) is 72,000 turning up to vote. Who were the absent 18,000?
Were they Liberals who couldn’t stand Tony Abbott?
Or Labor voters who couldn’t stand Tony Abbott?
Or a combination?
Either way, it seems Tony Abbott didn’t exactly galvanize the punters of Bradfield into marching on the polling booths a la the OO’s bootstrapper theory of this and yesterday mornings.
The little PR person who made the front page for changing her vote is clearly the exception.
I guess what I am suggesting is that because the circumstances of this by-election were so different from 2007 due to…
(a) By-elections are different
(b) 2PP figures were comparing apples with oranges (Lib/Lab v. Lib.Greens)
(c) We don’t know who turned up (voting is secret)
(d) and not many turned up anyway (verifiable)
It seems the Murdoch People’s Movement has been a bit of a fizzer.
Another reason people may not have voted – the fine is less than they pay someone to clean the pool for them. Why waste precious time.
Unless Abbott can rapudiate his political views on abortion and religion I will find it very difficult voting for the Libs in Melb Ports next year.
Off topic just for a moment.
Has anyone who has blocked out the serial pest noticed the occasional jump in the numbering of posts e.g. I see 1919 and 1921 but nothing in between.
I feel like I no longer run the risk of stepping on dog sh!t as I scroll through the posts.
Bliss.
Yes you’ve misunderstood.
You should add to that his belief that the Earth is no longer warming:
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,26459978-953,00.html
Is that true? I understood that the *vote* was secret. But surely then names of those who missed voting is known by the AEC and potentially in the public domain.
I’m surprised you didn’t say apples with watermelons
And the special beauty is that even if my post resulted in a flying piece of shite flung in my direction I’m not aware of that either.
Double bliss.
Barry Jones – gives the earth no longer warming a serve.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2766216.htm
Someone who has more spare time than me can do a booth-by-booth turnout analysis. I’m sure they will find that at all by-elections turnout falls more in Labor booths than in Liberal booths, because there are by definition more people with poor English, low education levels, and all the other hallmarks of political disengagement in Labor voting areas.
Here’s a quick 2-booth sample:
Hawksburn Central (Labor booth)
2007 formal 1342 / 2009 formal 981 (down 27%)
2007 informal 60 (4.3) / 2009 informal 76 (7.2) (up 2.9%)
2007 total 1402 / 2009 total 1057 (down 24%)
Toorak (Liberal booth)
2007 formal 2577 / 2009 formal 2309 (down 10%)
2007 informal 67 (2.5) / 2009 informal 93 (3.7) (up 0.8%)
2007 total 2642 / 2009 total 2492 (down 6%)
Thus we see that the turnout dropped much more sharply in the Labor booth, and that the informal vote was both higher and rose more. On top of that the DLP vote at Hawksburn Central was 13.8%, while at Toorak it was 1.4%. So that’s where the missing Labor vote went – abstention, informality, DLP as ALP substitute. This shows that there was no “swing to the Liberals”, just low-income Labor people refusing to vote for the Greens.
Thank goodness for people like Barry Jones
I like this part of the article:
Richard Glover and Annabelle Crabbe on ABC 702 Sydney at the moment stick up for Tony Abbott, who (apparently) never lets you be in any doubt as to what he thinks, while Rudd is nerdy and bureaucratic.
GLOVER: Whatever you might think about Climate Change and things like that, the GST has not ruined the economy.
(I think he means therefore Labor can’t complain about “Great Big Tax” accusations from Abbott).
Richard Glover is not the brightest bulb in the pantry, but this is the kind of idiotic argument Rudd is up against. Let’s not worry about what’s correct, or accurate, let’s just get into a giant slanging match over who started it.
Dr Good
I’m saying that it can be used as a cop-out and can easily be rorted. With billions of dollars at stake, I shudder to think of the schemes that the investment bankers are already working out to maximise outcomes for their clients, ie the polluters.
Imagine a couple of thousand traders working out different ways of buying cheap, dodgy credits and selling them to offset emissions. They will find holes you could drive a truck through.
It seems these days I end up saying more and more “that’s the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard”. Well, it’s that time again…
More fear mongering. Seems to be your stock in trade lately Dio
You can see the media running this line for TA just as they did the ‘Honest John’ one for Howard.
You would think the msm would regard their job as promoting good governance rather than umpiring a World Federation Wrestling match, where the Nerd in the red corner gets trounced because he isn’t as good copy as Biffo Abbott in the blue corner.
No Dario.
Just pointing out what hundreds of others have been saying. I’m with Hansen and Brook on this one. I’m sorry if that frightens you.
Glen, what a strange post. Why not just say you wont vote for Abbott, as you did when he was elected leader? As if he is going to repudiate his religious beliefs by then..He’s shown to be quite agile at the backflip and change of position but you are hoping against hope, surely
Oh no! and when the Libs start using those little trucks as their CC policy there be no stopping them!
Dio
Luckily satellite imagery is around so we can see if a forest is still there.
Zoomster, is certainly is the media’s tag for Abbott. Funny though, I was never in doubt about what Turnbull thought- he wasnt exactly a shrinking violet. I think Abbott has shown in the lead up to the vote and taking up the leadership but there has been PLENTY of doubt as to his position on a number of issues. But hey, the MSM has made up a fake liberal comeback in the polls for him, so they can be very accommodating for their man…
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/climate-claims-fail-science-test/story-e6frg6zo-1225808398627
Boerwar, dont misquote Abbott. He said he wouldnt rule out more troops, not that he supported sending more. That would be a defined policy position, and Abbott is having no part of that
Dio
No scheme is going to be immune from such scare campaigns.
Any kind of carbon tax scheme has to have someone checking how much to tax
the polluters. You can make a worrying scenario about that too.
Any kind of scheme is going to have to do its best to keep the forests that we have now and make sure we get more. If we (rich people who have benefited from decades of free polluting) don’t make a contribution to help keep those forests (and help stop coal plants springing up in Africa etc etc) then there is going to be pollution coming from there.
You have to tackle it. It is no use whinging and undermining from the side like Hansen and Brook.
“Tony Abbott, who (apparently) never lets you be in any doubt as to what he thinks”
I have similar praise for George Bush and Adolf Hitler. I really despise being left in doubt about what people think, no matter how offensive or vacuous their thought processes might be. Good on ya, Tony Abbott.
Andrew @ 1948
yes, we’ll have to wait and see what he says in other interviews over the next few days.
Not that he’s a bit of a weathervane on this, or indeed on any other policy issue (mate).
Funny none of the msm seems to have run with that moniker!
Dr Good
How does satellite imagery tell whether you really were going to tear down that forest?
I prefer to listen to scientists on scientific matters and economists on economic matters. Call me a fool if you like, but that’s me.
Dovif, if you seriously believe that science is on the side of the climate change denialists, you may as was well join the earth is flat and man didn’t land on the moon league. If you want to argue the mechanism for dealing with climate change or targets , there can be a reasoned debate. I guess you believe that it is a left wing conspiracy that has also captured the minds of right wing leaders like Merkel??
Did anyone hear the gaffe by Hunt on ABC radio, he said their alternative would “cost more”. Wasnt picked up by Fran Kelly.
Zoomster the funny thing about Abbott is he doesnt even pretend to have solid policy in any area, he just shoots off from hip. I can feel a “troops home by Christmas” moment any day now…
I’m stunned
Cuppa @ 1638
What a a load of bull! What and ignoramus Cassidy is!
The first scare campaign I recall was c1842, organised by (I’m almost certain) WC Wentworth & mates over UK’s attempt to reintroduce convict transportation to NSW (it had more or less stopped after the Reform Bills, but the early 1840s recession’s unemployment… you can guess the rest of that argument! And, fellow bloggers, to add to the irony & fun:
But wait, it gets better (tho the article skips over why transportation was abolished)!
Major demos & pickets on the Sydney docks were organised to stop convict boat people disembarking – regarded as Oz’s earliest true industrial action – because they were a threat to workers wages & living standards. Russell Ward argues (in The Australian Legend I think) that this theme – underlying fear of imported labour’s lowering wages & living standards – also underpin Australian attitudes to any such threat. The Gold Rushes effectively led to much higher wages, and the 8 Hour Day in NSW’s building industry, The next “boat people” in workers sights were Chinese Coolies … and so on and so forth ever since!
This nation was federated on scare campaigns! Numero uno was, of course, “Yellow Peril”; in the 1890s, especially Japanese, which, in the usually Oz manner, extended to the WAP, the foundation of the Oz Navy, threats to “haul down the Union Jack & run up the Stars & Stripes” (PM Fisher) and invitation to the “Great White Fleet” of the USA … and after the war, “C Class mandates”, and the Singapore Naval Base (the one where the fixed guns pointed seawards).
Oh, and (Now here’s a real gem) appeasement. No, not a joke. We started appeasing the Japanese over post 1929 (?1931 Manchuria, from memory), long before the policy became popular in Europe.
The first post-1945 scare campaign was another round of Yellow Peril following Mao’s victory & Menzies (both 1949). Obviously Cassidy’s knowledge of Oz politics & history doesn’t stretch back to Ming the Merciless’s Reds under the beds! Correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t Pig Iron Bob a Liberal
PS. Filthy hot sticky day, and our area’s power was off for major maintenance 9.00am-3.15pm, by which time it was 34 in our coolest room.
… at that particular moment.
I’m pretty keen on pointing when things are flawed rather than blindly following people over a cliff like lemmings just because you follow a political party.
Dario
Plenty of economists have said the same.
And why did Rudd get an economist to look at the science?
Dio 1952
I was busy when you were discussing credits for not tearing down a forest that you were going to. I am not sure what the details of this are. Will look into it later.
I think that there should be a fixed past baseline like 1990 or 2000 and we assess forestry cover against the situation then. Then that issue does not come in to it.
Dio
I see Hansen being paraded by the Australian newspaper into support for arguments that we should do nothing. Regardless of who I vote for, I think that instead, we need to galvanize people for serious action now and not help the deniers.
Andrew – I like your analogy, since 99% of the scientist of the world through the world was flat and Da Vinci (?) was accused of heresy for suggesting otherwise
The article was publish in Nature magazine, for people who understand the subject, this is not a magazine for the Denialists.
If you are smart enough to think that we understand nature so well that we know everything about it, you probably think the world is flat
How well do we know nature? Yesterday in NSW, we missed the estimated temparature by 6C within 12 hours
That is because the meteorlogist uses theory and guesses at next days temparature, just like climate scientist
And plenty have said an ETS is the best way
OzPol
there’s a lovely fort somewhere on the coast of Victoria (Warnambool?) built in the 1850s to keep the Russians at bay.
Whoever persuaded people that this was needed was obviously the master of all scare campaigners.
Good outcome for the government.
I wonder if this news will get even 2% of the column inches written as news and opinion pieces compared with the OV tripe?
I somehow doubt it.
OzPol, isn’t that why Fort Denison in Sydney Harbour was built?
dovif please explain why your fellow conservatives that are in government elsewhere, and the British (who are in opposition) believe in climate change and want to act on it???
As far as I am aware, the science was never in question, it was the economic solution that was looked at. Unless you think Garnaut went in and double checked the IPCC’s figures?
Dio
Furthermore when I asked you for some evidence about why we should be faffing about with still arguing about carbon tax versus ETS, you pointed to some ridiculous page with a few brief unsupported claims, and you said that it had a persuasive argument on it. So what are you up to?
Sorry, I meant Zoomster.
Is this your way of saying you no longer support the CPRS?
Oh good grief
Kakura, I shouldn’t be so flippant.
They obviously worked, we haven’t been invaded by the Russians.
Like the fridge magnets – since I got one, I haven’t been attacked by terrorists once.
Very good, and yes, the MSM will ignore it.
*heads off for the bus*
However, Dio, I agree with you that the difficult things now are the economics and to a greater extent the politics. The Science is fairly well settled and can take a seat for a while.
Listening to our ABC radio today, I was intruiged by how some issues like the consumer confidence figures and the childcare centre announcement got a pro-govt and anti-govt run depending on which bulletin. Aunty a bit confused I gather
Dario
Opinion is divided. We need more evidence. It’s best to do nothing.
Obviously I don’t think that but I’m concerned that it might turn out to be a Republic type of thing. I’m sure we will end up with an ETS because that’s what the polluters and big companies want. I certainly wouldn’t say not to have an ETS because I think a carbon tax would be better. But I hope that with people like Hansen etc highlighting the potential flaws in an ETS that it would be constructed more carefully.
For the pedants:
Someone who has more spare time than I (have)
ShowsOn I’ve always thought we could substantially reduce our carbon emissions if only we embraced nuclear energy and this would be possible without any CPRS.
Dr Good, I find it incredible that the science is still being debated. But isnt focussing on the science such a great way for denialists to avoid the economics and the policy??
Dr Good
The reference isn’t a page, it’s a 15 page pdf and it has multiple links, including to a quick 10 minute video by EPA attorneys.
It could be, with a Govt. subsidy.
Listening to Hunt defending his changed position, I was reminded of Hockey trying to sell his “shit sandwich” workchoices. Its a turd no matter how you dress it up
Glen
No. Because coal is much cheaper than nuclear without an ETS, so no-one in their right mind would build a nuclear station.
Glen, But your party of preference did nothing regarding nuclear energy for 11 years so it’s far too late in the game to cry “Move Davey to full forward!” when you are 14 goals down.
What’s you position on a CPRS today?
My comment – absolutely f’ing pathetic.
You should try and grow a pair.
Yeah Adelaide has a fort that was built to keep the Russians away about the same time.
If ever an invading navy of Russian ships sailed within a mile or so of the fort’s guns the fleet was in strife.
Mind you they were quite safe if they landed an invading force at Glenelg a few miles south or anywhere lese for that matter.
Oh and Dovif, most scientists had always known the earth was a globe, they were just not allowed to say it out loud cos it conflicted with the earth centred universe of church dogma.
What is the fine for failing to vote at a federal election ?
Ok then non-lemming Dio instead of just saying I’m with Hansen (and so get lumped into the delay-denial campaign by the sceptics) let us examine the flaws. What do you think is the flaw so bad that everyone should go home from Copenhagen now?
Glen, I gather you believe in climate change. Please explain why your conservative leadership here doesnt believe what conservatives overseas believe??
I think its very poor form that no one in MSM has asked Minchin or Abbott this question
PY you dont HAVE to vote. You have to turn up, get a slip and put in the box
Abbott oughta get onta that one! They might work for unwanted boat people also!
Andrew I am a believer that we are contributing to climate change but that we arent the only factor involved.
I’ve always said we shouldnt do anything until after Copenhagen.
Rudd was trying to sell us a lemon without giving us the fine print. If the fine print stinks then i wont back it.
I still dont even know what an ETS is!
Andrew
point taken
Andrew -1990
I am well aware of that. Maybe I should have rephrased that question >-
What is the monetary amount of the penalty for failing to turn up and get your name marked off the roll at the polling booth at a federal election ?
dio et al
I would certainly be worried about paying people for changing their intentions when we have no way of measuring intentions. Difficult to price.
Meanwhile, back in the real world, I heard over the weekend that quite a bit of clearing/harevesting is being done so that the departed forests can be replanted in a year or two in order to gain carbon credits.
So what other factors are involved? What do you suggest be done about them?
Dio 1981
Ok It was actually one web page that you linked to but now I see that it did contain a further link to a 15 page document. I will have a look and get back to you. Sorry
Andrew 1980
Good point. I agree
kakuru #1966
Not the Russians; the bloody Yanks!
Don’t forget we had the French Peril during the Napoleonic War, esp. after what they did to Matty Flinders!
Russian Peril (mark 2) was at its height around 1900 (QLD also armed & fortified against invasion) until the Jap ironclads & dreadnoughts cleaned up their “long, slacko, cheerful sea-cruise round the world in wooden boats” fleet at Battle of Tsushima Strait (1905) Bloody Japs!! The immediate cause of the WAP legislation!! Didn’t that scare us shitless!
Mind you, after what they did to our indigenous people, we had good cause to be terrified of what other countries’ boat people would do to us – and we thought they were less civilized than we were!
B 1995
I agree. That is why I suggest that forestry/landclearing is costed with respect to a past date such as 1990 or 2000.
Zoomster,
I’m pretty sure that the Victoria fort you’re thinking of is Queenscliff. I’m not sure where to look for confirmation, but I seem to remember a story that it was fear of Russian invaders (in the 1850s) which was the justification for the lighthouse being painted black
Dio
It also seems to be the case that some places are going for a tax and an ETS. Not sure of the reason for that but if that makes sense why not get the ETS in now so something is being done in the right direction and then lobby for a tax as well later?
Just a “yes” or a “no” would’ve been fine.
I actually agree with you that a carbon tax would be far simpler. I mean, when the government wanted to decrease the consumption of alcopops, it simply made them more expensive by increasing the tax (well, really they just closed a loop hole).
But the problem is, trading schemes are far more politically palatable, and easier to write into law than just a tax. Look how hard it has been for the government to pass the CPRS! How hard do you think it would be for just a carbon tax?
Well, not all of them. Dick Warburton who negotiated the free permits for gas producers would prefer a carbon tax.
But you don’t NEED a carbon price. Look at what the Liberals are going to do, they aren’t going to put a price on carbon, instead they will just use general revenue (i.e. income taxes) to give hand outs to clean energy industries, and maybe even nuclear power companies.
Someone who is in the game of helping implement policy and programmatic outcomes told me recently that what all the research shows is that if you want to change attitudes you have to change behaviour first.
Example given: when credit cards first came out, no one trusted them. So people were showered with free credit cards. Bit by bit they used them. And now look.
Does this mean that our 2000 loong set of posts is, apart from its entertainment value, a waste of time?
This is just a red herring, of course there are other factors involved, but it is human activities that are making it a problem, i.e. the uncontrolled warming. Volcanoes release green house gases too, so we must say that they are contributing to the problem as well, but it is human activities that are the MAIN factor resulting in warming.
Well if that is the case, it is getting around about the time that we need to do something.
1) The government sets a limit on the amount of green house gas pollution that can be released into the atmosphere each year.
2) The government auctions off permits to companies so that they are allowed to pollute a certain amount. The total amount of permits is equal to the total amount of pollution allowed. Companies can trade these permits with each other if they wish, but at the end of the year they expire, so they must buy new permits in order to pollute in the next year.
3) Over time the government lowers the total pollution cap, and auctions fewer permits, thus driving up the price polluters must pay.
4) Ultimately it is so expensive to pollute, that all businesses either offset their pollution, or figure out ways to stop polluting.
Psephos 1883 and others. We know that about 25-30% of Green voters preference Libs cf rest for Labor because they are usually counted officially. Probably 30 % of usual Labor voters would vote Lib rather than Green. Probably 30 % of usual Lib voters would vote Labor rather than Green. Doesn’t usually show up except in by-elections where one major party pulls out. But readily observable from recording the 2, 3 etc preferences of Labor and Lib votes in a usual election. Nothing unusual happened last weekend. And no reason for Labor Green fighting. Parties don’t own their voters preferences.
Steve K
It should be obvious to even the dimmest person here that my comment was facetious.
Dio
You send so many mixed messages here that I often wonder
How does one create a “smiley” ?
Steve K
When the following sentence is
it’s kind of hard to view that as a mixed message.
I’m saying that I DON’T think we should put both up in competition or we’ll end up with nothing.
Dr Good
Looks like a brilliant solution to me. Best comment on ETS vs tax I’ve seen.
A talk back caller made a good point today about the MSM coverage of the climate change issue. In attempting so-called balance on the issue, the MSM has given the denialist position a lot more coverage than it deserves, which has conferred a degree of legitimacy
SO
Have they said that? That was my bloody policy for them!!
Most of us in this forum excepted that the CPRS was just the start.
We also knew that the main game wasn’t about 5% cuts, because any Copenhagen Treaty would START at 15 or 20.
Well, Abbott has ruled out an ETS or carbon tax. So they won’t be taxing carbon at the source, but they will effectively rely on existing taxes to subsidise clean technologies.
That would be like trying to deal with problem drinking not by increasing alcohol taxes, but by the government providing subsidies for all non-alcoholic drinks.
Dio
Ok I have started to read the more full account of the argument that a Carbon Tax is better than an ETS.
http://bravenewclimate.com/2009/11/09/fee-and-dividend-better/
I am afraid that it is worse than the executive summary that I looked at earlier.
The first claim (of four main ones) is that Carbon Taxes work because they put a predictable price on Carbon while ETS systems won’t cause any reduction in pollution.
There is no evidence put forward for the first part of the claim. In fact, as THM and I discussed last night, there will not be a stable predictable price on Carbon under a tax. It will be like the Reserve Bank fidgeting around putting rates up and down every quarter to try to achieve the desired emissions reductions without closing down the economy. In fact in the document (page
you get hints that they think the tax rate can be set to negligible if there is a sudden demand for more pollution.
They do put forward some evidence for the second part of the claim that an ETS will not reduce pollution. How come? Well, the economic study that they base this on assumes that the particular US ETS scheme allows a large amount of overseas offsets and then calculates the reduction in US pollution that would result (not counting the reductions overseas) !!!
Talk about sloppy … or dishonest!
I hope that your hero Hansen has some better arguments!
I haven’t seen anything before on an ETS with a carbon tax. Properly run, you could get the best of both worlds.
With a carbon tax providing part of the incentive at a fixed rate to provide certainty (say at $20 per ton) you could use a variable amount of permits to adjust the emissions to reach your goal.
You get more certainty, a less rortable system AND a definite level of target met.
I like it.
Hey Peter Young
I have discovered how to make a smiley!! by mistake
I wanted to put the digit 8 in parentheses but that is not what appeared. Instead I got a smiley.
Weird hey!!
:)
(8)
Diog, sometimes i am not sure whether you are dumb or pretending to be dumb. The first thing that came out of Abbott’s mouth was: “No ETS and No carbon Tax”.
: then )
Well I don’t think for a second that a Labor government will leave agriculture out indefnately. But rather than forcing farmers to buy permits, they could just put a carbon tax on their activities.
When petrol is included after 2013, the government may increase the petrol excise but use the revenue to give people vouchers that can be spent on hybrid and electric cars.
So there’s your hybrid system.
Peter
They’re all here.
http://codex.wordpress.org/Using_Smilies
Finns
There are many ways of reducing carbon without an ETS or a carbon tax. Sometimes I wonder if you are dumb or pretending to be dumb.
Drop the Left Parenthesis
Which of course is the most stupid approach to trying to reduce the consumption of something.
It would be like trying to reduce tobacco consumption by susidising lollipops.
Its 8 nospace ) or
Dio
A quick search throws up the following ETS and tax suggestion
http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/008055.html
but I haven’t read it so I don’t know what it’s like
Finns
I should add that you can only reduce emissions by about 15% by doing the efficiency things Abbott has been talking about.
This is stupid. Economics 101 says if you want to decrease consumption of something, you make it more expensive, i.e. put a tax on it.
If instead you just take money from general revenue, then you will need to cut spending from other things, and won’t encourage consumers to reduce consumption of the thing that you want them to stop consuming.
(8
I am NOT pretending to be dumb
(8
At a cost greater than an ETS.
It is very peculiar that the Liberal part now thinks the government can out guess the market.
ShowsOn
With their new finance shadow the Opposition are starting to learn economics from the 12th century
What Abbott has said is so short on specifics that it’s not possible to estimate the benefits of following his ‘plan’…. 0.15%; 1.5%; 2.5% ….. anybody’s guess.
Diog, dont throw another red herring at me, unless they are nicely grilled and yummy.
Of course, there are other ways, but that was not the subject. We were talking about whether Abbott has said or not said whether he would put a price on carbon.
Now i know, you are dUMb as well wRONg, but keep those grilled red herrings coming
No PY, you cant have that. Now it’s Diog’s as well.
I get the feeling that they are going to move from magic pudding economics to magic mushrooms…
Finns
Read ‘em and weep. This is what I was responding to.
*bangs head on table*
…and then the mushroom cloud…
Diog, i got a feeeling that now ABC12345 is gone from our screen, you are trying very hard to step into his shoes
SBS is running with Abbott’s Munich gaffe.
But Greg Hunt (climate action man) has said the Libs may have an ETS in 4 years. So the Libs will only use General Revenue while the Buget is in deficit?
One Nation has been deregistered in Qld because it did not have 500 members. They all joined the LNP.
So do you understand now why just giving hand outs to industries won’t fix the problem?
I suspect that ultimately they will say they will axe the third tranche of the stimulus funding. i.e. the money set to be spent on highways and ports.
Yep. I was just trying to help out Abbott. I didn’t have much to work with.
Finns
You can block me out. It would just be the next step after you un-friended me. ;(
Except in National or marginal electorates.
OzPol Tragic 1999
Pedantic – moi?
I dont think there were ay dreadnoughts at Tsushima…HMS Dreadnought only came into the fleet in 1906 (Tsushima was 1905)…
For fancier emoticons and colours try
http://hummingbunny.wordpress.com/emoticons/
Click on “Hex colours” to play with colours.
Has Rudd agreed to 15% at Copenhagen? You beauty!!
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/pressure-on-pm-to-triple-emissions-cuts-as-nations-force-his-hand/story-e6frg6n6-1225808410944
Diog, i am working on a Script, not Java but Sanskrit, that will aggregate all of your posts and highlight the bits that are wRONg and dUMb, and also email Mrs. D the relevant alerts.
grey text(remove both *)
OMG, Tiger is gay as well. He had it all, Swedish Au Pair, cocktail waitress, cougar, Nighclub DJ, student, porn star and now a journo.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/eagle-eyed-birdies-and-the-odd-albatross/story-e6frezz0-1225808375573
Steve K 1996
First, let me emphasise that all the scientists, historians etc I know who are involved in the research, scholarship, teaching & general interest in areas mentioned below are as one in saying: Give Earth the benefit of the doubt! We have NO records to illuminate what the Industrial Era’s gas & particulate pollution, soil & water degredation, and/ or rapidly increasing population and demands, will have of Earth’s climate. Current levels of both are unprecedented; so we simply don’t know! These are factors we can & must address asap.
And there is not one sane reason for not doing so!
AS the next three are natural, there really is nothing we can do about them, except ensure that unnatural behaviour and conditions don’t make their impact any worse!
Definite: Natural medium-length climate change, probably reflecting solar activity full cycle appears to be 900-1000 years. Accessed by tracking through dated archival data from a number of countries, esp England where there are copious records of Thames freezing and sea-ice formation, sea-levels (also tracked in The Netherlands for centuries) & duration; onset data of weather events – eg first frost/ freeze/ snowfall & how long, “hard”, first thaw, … rain and river-heights … all the data one would keep pre-thermometer, etc. England under the Romans, then the Normans & thereafter was compulsively, obsessively record-keeping mad. Most literate people seemed to buy almanacs & either annotate them or keep parallel records. Ordinary workers’ knowledge of almanacs (mentioned in Shakespeare – MSN’s Dream, I think).
Can be cross-referenced to other similar record keeping, inc by Persians (also tracked 600+ years of stars, comets etc; records still used) Vikings, Chinese (also OC record keepers).
Most of the work on climate cycles informed Palentological, archeological, historical (esp ancient) and mythology (as in study of myths) research & scholarship – that’s why I became involved in trying to keep abreast with research, long before Global Warming was mentioned, much less became an environmental catch-cry.
I know the loudest noisemakers on climate change chuck mentals any time anyone mentions the above; but it exists, there’s a large corpus of studies & heaps of archival material.
Probable: Sea Current directional changes. Again, these seem to be cyclical (also 900-1000 year full cycle). There are major studies & computer modelling on the Gulf Stream’s changing direction. I’ve read & seen some, but not enough to go past a mention.
Definite but seems to be increasingly infrequent as Earth slowly cools with age: volcanic activity High levels of atmospheric volcanic ash, gases etc create “Wasteland” conditions; as in Exodus & Oedipus Rex (probably both Thera), Arthurian Cycle,(a much earlier & more massive Krakatoa). Much milder eruptions (eg Mt St Helens) produced milder versions of “Wasteland” conditions (records abound!).
Some thoughtful scientists have postulated that current gas & particulate pollution may be building to levels created by major eruptions … and that’s much scarier than GW proponents’ worst nightmares.
All the more reason for CPRS!
Sorry; stuffed up an or there somewhere.
Good old OO, can always trust them to tell blatant porkies.
Will we see a campaign that begins with the “fact” that Rudd only wanted a 5% cut?
Finns,
With all his shenanigans being exposed, apparently there is a new exotic movie being made called “Tiger’s Wood”. Should be a classic.
http://www.fark.com/cgi/comments.pl?IDLink=4834455&tt=s
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/beer-may-prevent-prostate-cancer-scientists-say/story-fn3dxity-1225808777647
You beauty – put VB on the PBS – NOW.
Okay – the penalty for failing to vote at a federal election is $20 if the non-voter pays on receipt of a penalty notice or up to $50 if the non-voter elects have a court determine the penalty.
I needed this information to do an economic analysis of the choice to vote or not to vote.
Red wine for the heart, beer for the prostate! Any more good news?
vp,
A good crop of Liberal arses to kick.
Tequila for the mind.
Any more good news?
ShowsOn:
triton:
ShowsOn:
Then perhaps you can explain how. You said “In other words…”, which appears to imply that the second statement does follow from the first. It doesn’t.
Testing
Roll gives a tongue out.
There is something crazy about wordpress. They seem to have two separate and distinct sets of emoticons which occur on different sites within wordpress.
While Australian conservatives have the tape on ‘rewind’, in the UK …
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-moderates-attack-climate-change-sceptics-1836556.html
My question was directed at Glen who is almost certainly a CC sceptic.
Thanks anyway for your post.
Turnbull goes to the UK, talks to Cameron and sees the advantage of action on CC.
Abbott talks to Howard, Minchin, Barnyard and Bronny and comes to another conclusion.
BB
http://twitter.com/tequilagringo
Cuppa,
The Tories are trying to outflank the Labour Government in the UK by demanding stronger action on climate change.
Maybe our local variety are simply lying low in the long grass with their moustaches on as a clever disguise.
Now I see where Abbott gets his change your mind on a policy on odd and even days.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/12/08/republicans-forced-to-rev_n_384680.html
I see now how the OO and their MSM cronies are going to get out of this Copenhagen thing. They will argue that Rudd has been FORCED to go further than he wanted to
TP,
Have you seen this analysis of NT Federal seats.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/northern/2009/12/09/nt-house-of-reps-election-fever-gets-underway-sorta-kinda-maybe/
Finns
Oppenheimer learnt Sanscrit just so he could read the Bagavad Gita in its original language. You’re no Oppenheimer.
And if Copenhagen achieves nothing, it will be Rudd’s fault as well.
OK. So Abbott has supported an ETS and then not supported an ETS. He has said that people sort of warmed things up but that climate change is crap. Then maybe, the climate was cooling, but, in any case, warming has stopped. Well, maybe not quite stopped enough to not do anything at all. Really. There is a commitment to a 5% target and maybe some more after that. And he will go to the next election with another plan but that ETS part of it will only start if the US does an ETS. It would be difficult to figure out whether his feet are more worn out or his mouth.
Someone should tell this chap that lying is a sin; venial in minor matters, but mortal in major matters.
Any thoughts on giving the world bank the climate cash moolah to dole out? Anyone prefer the UN to do it?
GG
All the attributes to lead the Liberal Party, Ms Price would be wasted on the CLP.
Diog, thanks God for that. He is dead and i am still swimmingly alive
Ru,
Only Tony Abbott beats her on dissembling prevarication.
Hpward’s Battlers are replaced by Abbott’s Army (of Denialists). He’s going to struggle to get the middle class to become denialists.
Boerwar, you have a better handle on Abbott’s positions than he has!
Diogs,
He’s appealing to people like you.
The ones that always change their mind.
Doesn’t it sort of defeat his own purpose if he announces his political ploy before playing it? Shouldn’t it lead people to question his sincerity?
It was me Irish catlick educasion.
Hale is on a fine margin and I reckon a decent (name) candidate could beat him. I live in Palmerston and didn’t know the deputy Mayor is Natasha Griggs until she was mentioned in this context. I don’t think she will win.
I invented a drink (at least I think I did) which is a Margherita, but with orange juice instead of lemon juice. I called it “Tequila Sunset”.
If nothing else, my mind dipped below the horizon after drinking it.
The memories come flooding back… the sound of waves lapping on a private beach, the deep cobalt skies of a Sydney Harbour sundown, a very good friend to share the experience, and each with a Tequila Sunset to work its wicked way upon us…
Ah, here’s to younger and happier days… no mortgage, Bob Hawke the PM, a swimming pool beckoning and nothing to do all weekend but…
GG
There’s not much point in trying to appeal to people who will never change their mind.
I never will.
Abbott’s Army’s holy retail crusade Against List:
infidels, foreigners who arrive in wooden boats, chinese investment, making the farmers do anything, stopping the farmers from doing anything, subsidising farmers to do things, subsidising to stop doing things, interfering with King Coal, debt, a fair workplace, women’s control over their bodies, sin, the UN, equity for third world countries, government borrowing, government intervention in the global financial crisis, tax, social cohesion, ETS…
Diogs,
You are a disappointing fish if you bite on any old gumboat.
Ltep you should know Abbott is sincere from his response to climate change. What more does he have to do to prove it?
As I said previously, for NSW residents just mirror image the federal scene:
Thousands of teachers attended more than 100 stop work meetings across the state to protest about being forced to work an extra five hours a week for less than $3 an hour.
Mr Lipscombe said he was “alarmed” teachers faced changes under NSW Labor that would not have been possible under the Howard Government’s unpopular WorkChoices legislation.
http://hornsby-advocate.whereilive.com.au/news/story/more-strikes-by-tafe-teachers-keneally-urged-to-solve-dispute/
Diog, it’s called principle, just in case you aint got it
Boerwar,
There’s always the exchange with Marlon Brando in “The Wild One”.
What are you against?
What yer got?
BB
Very civilized. Just in the next lot of water northwards, in a Hawksbury cove, in a Halvorsen, it was our turn to introduce people to the annual new coctail. Margheritas. All that salt must have made the crew thirsty so there was much wassailing and whooping and testing which ended with our Piper mounting the poop and regaling the various boaties parked round about with a wonderful rendition of Lord Lovett’s Lament. This echoed very nicely off the cliffs, until there seemed to be several Pipers playing dirge chasey across the water. It was a beautiful moonlit night. We knew that one of the anchored parties was very, very happy with LLL because of the delighted ‘hoot mon’s’ that raced across the water. We subsided after than and sought our sleep, shattered at about 5 am by a mean spirited speed boat driver who circled our craft at high speed and close range as he sought revenge for may have been a largely sleepness night.
He can only have been a souless Sassenach.
Amazing coincidence.
Just polled by EMRS on Territory and National politics. Opinions on Hale, Griggs, Rudd, Turnbull and Abbott. And voting intention NT and National.
Finns,
Check out 2058 which is out of jail.
gg
yeh. It will be a test for Rudd.
Finns
In the words of one of the greatest minds ever
I’ve never agreed with a statement more.
I’m with BB – I’m rusted. Too much experience and water under the bridge to change my mind.
GG, tq for that.
yes, i have just received the latest happy couple family photo:
http://users.tpg.com.au/tjhpnq98//tigerelin.jpg
Finns,
Apparently, that picture was taken before the little incident.
Diog, i am glad you have come to your senses. You manage to make Wild Russia looks tame
Diogs,
The quick brown fox jumps over the lazy dog.
GG, i just wonder if Tiger called Diog for a bit of plastic surgery or maybe that was after Diog did his thing
Finns,
To be fair, Diogs client was Mrs Woods.
BH, that song was written for you: “Love you just the way you are”.
Rubbish. Most people are certain they are right about all sorts of things, and quite often they are. Humans have the capacity to arrive answers to questions, both by research and by reason, and it cannot be the case that the more thoroughly they research a question, and therefore the more certain they are that they have the correct answer, the more likely they are to be wrong. That’s just a facile pseudo-paradox of the kind that amuses tiny minds.
GG, you could be riGHt.
Oh dear Herr Doktor, do you have to be so kind to Diog?
From Their ABC, a Photo of Abbott with a prospective member of his “Army”
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200912/r481866_2458409.jpg
More like the Barmy Army
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPcxVLisEIM
Finns,
Most of these “facile pseudo-paradox of the kind that amuses tiny minds” usually has alcohol involved. Stupidity followed by remorse followed by exoneration followed by being kicked out of where you love (Think Brendan Fevola).
Thanks Finns – but have you still got Ms Stardust on your mind!
BTW – does anyone thing the MSM will hold Abbott to account for telling us the world was cooling when the facts point to it becoming warmer, or will that just pass them by.
Perhaps Ms Crabb and Mr Glover need to be told they only know where Mr Abbott stands on anything for about 5 minutes before he changes his mind. Malcolm was right when he said Abbott has so many different positions. Pity dear Annabel can’t admit it.
BH,
Abbott has the line, “judge me going forward”, which seems to exonerate him from any of his past stupidities.
You know Labor will just go along with this.
Psephos @ 2111,
You are exhibiting exactly the kind of thinking that led the 12 year olds who run the financial markets into giving us the sub-prime crisis.
No holding back progress and the advancement of human values in the good old US of A…
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/09/us/09ohio.html?_r=1&th&emc=th
BH, nah. It was a lesson too late for the learning, and that was the last thing on my mind:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=voqL5ksOuoo
Psephos
I’ll go with Michael Faraday over your puny intellect any day. I find it comforting that the man who always thinks he is right, in this case you, disagrees with the statement.
In fact it proves Faraday was right.
Dyno, if you could see the state of my finances you wouldn’t say that.
dyno,
Why give 12 year olds a bad name?
The crisis was actually driven by money grubbing, Liberal voting thugs trying to ripoff hardworking families of their savings.
Top 2 news feeds from the curious snail right now …
1. Bus drivers back to work
2. Rail workers walk off job
Cheers, claps, hoorays for GG – and I want that mob to get their come uppance. No good saying that everything is OK now. I want them to suffer a bit more.
Then why didn’t Faraday apply this great insight to his own work? He was a scientist, he published books and papers, he made speeches, he took out patents. All because he had confidence that the knowledge he had gained by research and reason was correct, that it was an accurate discription of reality. He didn’t preface his books by saying “I’m quite certain that light and magnetic force are related, therefore I am almost certainly wrong.”
What a load of metaphysical piffle you talk – and this from a doctor! You ought to be ashamed of yourself.
Diog, since when Michael Faraday was a philosopher. He should stick to the nuclear engineering.
Frank – 2114
That photo is interesting. On Saturday night at about 10pm I was at a cafe when a bloke turned up on a pushbike I had not seen before. He sat down with somebody he obviously knew. I couldn’t help but over-hear his conversation. He had come from Chatswood where he had been handing out how to vote cards. He said he was very tired.
That is the guy depicted in the pic !!!
He wasn’t wearing his “election day” day t-shirt as shown in the pic, but a shirt of a different colour.
I made an assumption about who he had been handing out H-T-V cards for. Oh how wrong I was.
If you had even the faintest idea about Faraday and how science works in general, you would have your answer to this question.
You are the perfect example of someone who exemplifies what Faraday said.
Psephso,
Just join the all encompassing Diogs you are wRong movement.
Saves a lot of time and mental energy.
OK, since we are into moving into proving a generalization by accumulating individual cases in the affirmative, or negative, what happens when we apply Faraday’s Fing to, say, Abbott?
Barry Jones is brave enough to write a piece on CC, the science and the sceptics.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2766216.htm
Nice one Psephos.
As my philosophy lecturer used to say, ” If you weren’t sure of anything you wouldn’t get out of bed in the morning”.
Diog, this ought to be a lesson to you. never start bashing the baby blue dolphin:
http://rlv.zcache.com/dolphin_playing_with_sun_sticker-p217842319914281030q0ou_400.jpg
we have friends in high and deep places
Winston,
I’ve got Uni students in my house that follow that philosophy.
This is the full quote.
You philosophy teacher was a moron. Many people who are not sure of anything, such as the severely mentally ill, get out of bed.
Diogs,
What did Faraday have to say about Mike rann’s alleged sex life.
You’ve been up to your old tricks I see:
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,,26457189-5006301,00.html
Or does this just count as campaigning for pre-selection for the Sex Party?
GG
He wasn’t sure.
C’mon Diogs, just because you have a phenomenal record of being wRONg dosen’t mean that everybody else should be usually wrong as well.
GG, he said: “I can see the electromagnetism, but i need to experiment first”.
To me he is saying that all scientific claims are only provisionally true, and must be constantly refined and tested against new evidence.
The part you initially quoted:
Is proposing that any person not open to doubt or scepticism leaves themselves open to making fatal mistakes because of their unwillingness to continue testing and refining their assumptions.
Of course statements of this sort are exactly what post-modernists like to quote to say that scientists can never be certain about anything, but that isn’t at all what Faraday meant.
Dr Diogenes to patient: “Based on my professional knowledge and experience, plus the results of all these tests, I’m certain you have cancer and need an operation at once or you will die. On the other hand, as some guy in the 19th century said, “The man who is certain he is right is almost sure to be wrong,” so I am almost certain to be wrong about your diagnosis, so forget I said anything. Just pay my receptionist on the way out. Have a nice day.”
SO
He’s not just talking about scientific claims; he’s talking about fallibility of any opinion.
Diogs,
Interesting that Faraday wasn’t sure. But, that your second favourite philosphers Channel 7 and New Idea with their artful assistants at News were more conclusive, with no corroborated evidence.
Be careful Diogs, someone might think you’re full of shite.
Psephos
You really have no idea, do you?
I am never certain anyone has cancer. All tests are fallible. No operation will definitely prevent someone from dying. There are always spontaneous remissions and other options.
Psephos -2143
Would you like me to put up my script titled ” Door Knocking for Steve Whan”?
It’s hilarious
oh dear, i feel guilty now
There is a difference between being certain about something for good reasons (i.e. because of evidence) and being certain about something for bad reasons (i.e. because of dogma). That is the distinction Faraday is making.
Consider this example. Most meteorologists are certain that the Earth is warming because of data collected from weather stations, ice cores, and by the analysis of tree growth. Andrew Bolt is certain that the Earth is cooling because he believes that there is an international scientific conspiracy organised to make the Australian government introduce a new tax.
Most meteorologists and Andrew Bolt are certain, but for different reasons. One sense of certainty is justifiable, the other isn’t.
As you should
Dio doesnt need this savaging.
he does mighty fine on his own
Well you can apply the same analysis to any truth claim.
Not being sure is the state that scientists find themselves in every day.
GG
Straw man combined with an ad hominem argument with a large dash of hypocrisy.
That’s your drink.
Hey Diog, so i was right all along about you: “You are wRONg, even when you are rIGHt”.
gus,
Do you reckon the Julian McMahon character in “Nip Tuck” was modelled on our Diogs?
Gus, i should be punished. What about lunch then?
So Diogs are you saying that all opinions are just that – opinions, regardless of one’s knowledge and experience on a particular matter?
I think you have been reading too many Greens posts on pollbludger
Too busy in a cage fight.
Diogs,
Pierced the armour again, have I?
Stringing together cliches is neither an argument nor a sentence.
GG
You could be onto something there
What’s a happenin here? I follow a youtube link and come back it’s get Diogenes. Are you all missing Bob or has Bob morphed into Diogenes?
Centre
As ShowsOn said, some opinions are much more likely to be correct than others depending on what they are based on and the person who gives them. But all opinions are just opinions.
Did somebody suggest the World Bank should be in charge of something? They, and the IMF, should not be in charge of anything. Look at what they did to South America. The Argentinians only recovered after they told the IMF to stuff their loan repayments.
Scarpat,
Alter ego.
Anyone know who’s on LateLine tonight?
Scarpat, that Diog’s punishment for trying to bash up a dolphin
Diog, you are the greatest philosopher of all time.
Still celebrating I see – yep, just saw your Tweet
VP, are you refering to the article in the Guardian? Crikey has a piece on it but I don’t have the link. Crikey says that it is incorrect re the World Bank.
So you never make diognoses?
Please do.
I didn’t see him make that distinction.
GG
No piercing.
And “straw man”, “ad hominem” and “hypocrisy” aren’t cliches. They are examples of fallacious arguments and inconsistent thinking.
“diognoses” Ha! I made a pun
Diog, i see that John Safran is atoning for your sins.
I never give cheek to real doctors. I always recall a surgeon telling me:
One day you might be on my operating table – and you don’t know what I might do to you
There’s some classic stuff on the fake John Hartigan (News Corp Australia CEO) twitter feed.
http://twitter.com/bigharto
Diogs,
Looks you’ve diagnosed your problems.
Now, what are you going to do about them?
Finns, I see that you have been getting your own back:
http://www.smh.com.au/world/has-moko-the-dolphin-flipped-20091208-khly.html
Psephos
All diagnoses are provisional and subject to revision. Medicine is probability-based.
I would hope that historical opinions are as well. New information can always come to light to change your opinion.
I’m with Diogenes on this one. Fake certainty is a major cause of disasters.
Finns
The C.O. has said I can have leave on the 17th.
It is known as the autopsy
That’s very poor quality bait, GG, for reasons you know all too well …
I guess you have to pause and think about what that means Dio, before you react. Perhaps it’s not meant to be literal.
Finns, Tiger has been pretty busy between tournaments. What’s that up to now? I heard 11 mistresses.
Holy Skyland, Diogs and Bob would like that!
dyno,
As in love, as in life.
Centre, his mother-in-law fainted, that’s no: 12 then.
Gus, 17th sounds good.
ShowsOn,
Can atheists convert? Like, if you don’t have a faith, what do you convert from? I bet I could make bishop (not B or J, please) before Tony does.
dyno @ 2181,
You think only Tony Abbott can play that game?
Though I must say I have met many surgeons (socially), and Diogenes is the first I have heard admit that he could be wrong about anything!
Are you sure you’re in the right profession, Diogenes?
I think Tiger has been doing more work on the 19th and 20th than on the course.
Well that means you obviously missed this sentence:
Translation – a theory is only as good as the data that supports it. Any good theory should be open to updating as new evidence becomes available.
He contrasts this with:
Translation – it is very easy to come to false conclusions when developing theories, however, one thing we can be sure of is that refusing to change your opinion when better evidence is available is sure to lead one to false conclusions.
He is comparing and contrasting beliefs supported by evidence and beliefs ‘supported’ by dogma, or by a refusal to amend theories when better data is available.
Don’t mention the war.
Yes of course, I think historians learned that principle well before doctors did. But that’s not the same thing as saying that nothing can ever be known with certainty, or that the more certainly a proposition appears to be correct, the more likely it is to be wrong, which is what you said. Is the proposition that the earth goes round the sun extremely likely to be wrong, because nearly everyone is firmly convinced it’s true? This is just pseudo-sophisticated drivel, fit only for people who read astrology columns in New Idea.
vp,
Tiger has been building his own 18 person golf course.
If you have uncertain data you don’t theorize, you hypothesize and test.
GG,
Six more holes to play?
Psephos – 2169
I am only prepared to put up the first few lines of the script to ” Door Knocking for Steve Whan ” – because I need to get my lawyers “all-clear” before publishing it in full.
Door Knocking for Steve Whan
Outside residence 26 Bunn Street, Braidwood, Psephos walks to the front door and knocks.
The door slowly opens from the inside.
Psephos ( aggressively ) : Do you know who the (expletive deleted) we are?
Well, he normally plays 18 holes…
Damn. Too slow with the hole jokes
dyno 2191,
LOL.
Dario,
There’s a hole lot more to come.
I think you are taking it out of context. He is saying that if someone argues that they are really, really, really sure of something, so sure that they won’t change their mind ever, then they are probably wrong.
It is the people who are more careful, and tentative, and questioning, and sceptical that tend to be more accurate in the long run.
Diogs
Agree with your recent comments, both on the nature of knowledge and uncertainty and the characteristics of some of the posters here.
All depends on your definition of ‘uncertain data’ doesn’t it
vp, we’re going to hell, aren’t we…
I think, Dario, if the data you have is uncertain I think you would
(a) validate the data,
(b) get more data or
(c) forget it.
“I think” too much.
It’s Time, my mad uncle is called Heisenberg
especially in regards to nuclear
LOL
Finns,
Are you certain?
Gusface,
Does Ian Plimer fit that profile?
Psephos
Of all people here, you should understand about changing your opinions. You have listed the considerable number of political philosophies you have adopted over your life.
I imagine you held those positions as fiercely as you hold your current beliefs.
Yet you changed them as life went on.
dyno
The single most common cause of a doctor being sued is wrong diagnosis. When you look back at what they did, often they had a good reason for the initial diagnosis but they stubbornly refused to admit they were wrong and change to the correct diagnosis when new information came in.
diog, please, let my people go
strange, i said that to Bob few days ago
Diogenes,
There must be a fine line between being satisfied with a diagnosis and calling for a second opinion, from a medico’s point of view?
vp, i am but not mad uncle
Diogs,
The single most common cause of a doctor being sued is wrong diogenes. When you look back at what they did, often they had a good reason for the initial diogenes but they stubbornly refused to admit they were wrong and change to the correct diogenes when new information came in.
Says it all.
Nuclear power is currently under going a renascence around the world with 150 GW of nuclear power projects under construction or consideration. We can’t cut CO2 emissions fast enough or cheaply enough without nuclear power.
We all know what side of the dogmatic / sceptic divide you are on regarding nuclear power.
“CDOs are safe. Our models prove they’re safe. Our competitors are investing in them. Let’s keep investing more and more money in them.”
ShowsOn,
Did you catch the debate on nuclear on ABC fora on RN at 6:10 PM? Regardless of the issue, I think the contra won the debate.
No but I’ll find it now, thanks!
vp
Good doctors are happy to get a second opinion, and most do it frequently. You can always do more tests and hope they clarify matters.
The main problem is that you have to embark on a treatment course at some stage when you aren’t sure what the problem is. It takes a certain amount of self-confidence/arrogance to do that and not worry too much about having it wrong. That’s one of the main reason so many doctors break down; they have to act as if they are certain when they are not..
Hopefully not the stigmatic side.
Finns,
I guess you have read Schroedinger’s Cat. Have you read Schoedinger’s Kitten, an interesting book by John Gribbin?
GG
Very clever.
vp, yes and no. But am reading Schoedinger’s Pussy by T Woods.
diogs,
Cheers.
Are you certain, Finns?
Interesting Q.
Unlike the nuclear issue, the CC issue seems pretty clear cut with most of the world accepting some form of MMclimate change.
I dont think the scepticism is scientific but more self interest based.
IT, of course, my mad uncle proved that i can be at two places at the same time.
I can’t find the post, but apparently Dennis Jensen wrote an angry post on his Facebook page because he was annoyed he didn’t get a shadow ministry.
Diogenes,
Their responsibility is immense and I don’t grudge them any material benefits they get. From a personal point of view, my GP has made at least four recommendations to my wife and me, all of which improved our quality of life immeasureably. I trust her without reservation.
Yes, but we couldn’t be certain it was you.
I should add that I’m not making a “woe are we doctors” statement here. There are plenty of other jobs where this is a problem and where the consequences can be just as serious.
You’ll never get it. We have very little choice. Even if we spent every day until mid century building renewable energy projects, by 2050 we will have massive electricity shortages if we don’t massively expand nuclear power.
Maybe you think that we should restructure our economy based around basket weaving, but that just won’t happen. People in developed countries like their living standards, and have a limit on the way they are willing to change their behaviours in order to save the planet.
http://www.facebook.com/dennisjensenmp?ref=search&sid=1261278127.3527468025..1
I don’t intend becoming Dennis Jensen’s friend to find out.
In that case the planet won’t get saved. The planet was here first, and we have to adapt to it, not vice versa. (My god I’m turning into a green.)
Well IT, a moment ago, it was Diog who wasnt sure whether he can be riGHt or wRONg. Now i am not sure if i can be me or him.
GlobalEditorial:
This is what David Suzuki says about nuclear power
http://www.davidsuzuki.org/Climate_Change/Energy/Nuclear.asp
So the federal government should pass laws so it can rezone land for high density residential. Too much land is wasted on ridiculously large houses:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/aussie-homes-three-times-bigger-than-british/story-fn3dxiwe-1225805205007
You must have time on your finns at 140 bytes at a time.
Apparently the post was something like ‘In order to win the next election we need the very best shadow ministry, I’ll leave it to you to judge if the new front bench is that.’
Finns,
Quantum theory says that you are in ALL places at once but you only materialize in one.
They refer to it here.
So what is the Federal Government going to do about increased interest rates… talk a load of rhetorical nonsense and spin us a few yarns…
Pity the Labor Party privatised the Commonwealth Bank.
Lateline: I am a journalist, not a commentator.
hmmm, have they told that to Their ABC?
If we have energy shortages it would be a good thing. It is time the world conserved energy instead of creating further problems to the environment.
We must start living within our means instead of continuing to deplete our scarce resources that we have.
vp
The alternative is that there are multiple universes and you are in each possible place in one universe.
All this hyperbole about COP15 is crazy. Doesn’t the press know how these types of negotiation proceed. There are, what, 10000 delegates and there will be no “leaks”!
One thing I can tell you, in Denmark there will be great food and drink, not your French minceur type, and, apparently, free ladies of the night.
Completely off topic, is Tiger Woods a delegate?
Hookers for free… how much greenhouse gases will this create?
Shows on,
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/tony-is-the-gomez-of-the-abbott-family-20091209-khxg.html
Diogenes,
I don’t understand physics but I love it. Apparently, in string theory, there are eleven dimensions (down from 13 at last count). This is a hypothesis based on mathematics. Until they get a GUT or a TOE we’ll not know. It wouldn’t surprise me if I were cavorting in many other parallel universes. Why can’t I be co-existential to enjoy them all?
We really are hanging out for another poll, any poll, aren’r we?
Andrew Elder excoriates Abbott and his shadow Ministers (Not for children’s eyes).
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com/
Unfortunately string theory is turning out to be a whole lot of nothing:
http://www.amazon.com/Trouble-Physics-String-Theory-Science/dp/061891868X/ref=sr_1_7?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1260359898&sr=8-7
http://www.amazon.com/Not-Even-Wrong-Failure-Physical/dp/0465092764/ref=sr_1_12?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1260359898&sr=8-12
GG,
He does the Monk thoroughly. Thanks for the link.
ShowsOn,
Ian Plimer wrote a book, too.
No, there actually is a serious debate in physics concerning the fact string theory hasn’t produced anything testable yet.
There isn’t a serious debate concerning whether or not AGW is real.
v.p
I don’t know, this stream of consciousness stuff is quite relaxing.
Of course, we could say something sneering about the Greens, that’s always good for another 500 posts. Might even get marg back.
?????
Jensen should feel a little hard done by, because the Mad Monk promoted every other climate change sceptic nutter!;)
As I said earlier today, the WA Liberals fared very badly in the reshuffle!
Tonight on SBS News: Tony Abbott climbing up a ladder to install solar panels!
God help us!
Ian Plimer and many sceptics continue to say that the earth is cooling and not getting hotter.
That since 1998 the hottest year ever temperatures have decreased and yes they have, but not by much.
The years before 1998 were cooler (obviously) but the years since have been hotter than many of the years before 1998. Thus, since 1998 their have been many years which have been close to being hotter but have been our second and third hottest years on record…
Meaning the trend regarding the world getting hotter continues to go up.
I will say it again if we are not getting hotter than why is the arctic and antaractic melting?
how do the sceptics answer this? Plimer works for the mining companies and is in their pocket.. he could not give two hoots about the future and the planet, all he cares about is his own self interest.
Well, that is the U.K. Met Office figures. If you go by the U.S. figures collated by NASA, 2005 was the hottest year, and 1998 was the second hottest.
Showy
are you a CC sceptic??
Then they should start sending some talent to Canberra: Johnston is good, Cormann is smart if rather sinister (German accent oh dear), Back may be useful too, but Tuckey, Cash, Jensen, Randall… who’d promote any of them? Keenan and Bishop are duds, and Irons, Marino and (who’s the other new guy?) haven’t made any impact at all. Washer, Moylan and Eggy are past it. Who have I missed?
Whatever? the point is we are getting hotter and so far the last six months in Australia have been our hottest ever.
We are heating up and fast it will only get worst the future for people under 30 is very grim.
worst = worse..
ShowsOn,
String theory has not been proved (and not proven – as in “tested”) because it is based on pure mathematics. There may be, eventually, a mathematical “proof” but, until the physicssts can materialize it the TOE is a non-entity.As I understand it, most of the research these days is focussed on string theory.
If there is a TOE then I’m with Fred Hoyle in “Black Cloud”: mind destroying.
The alternative is that a GUT is beautiful and simple. It may be so but it is beyond the mind power that we less-than-perfect beings can bring to it.
Even by your standards this is too stupid to answer.
He is from Belgium. The hilarious thing is he got his law degree from the University of East Anglia.
Lord Monkton is one rather strange gentleman! Didn’t he used to work for Margaret Thatcher?
Psephos,
Do you have a document, an opinion piece, on the “worth” of each of our, what is is it, 150 + 76 federal electees? I would be interested (if it’s libellous I won’t tell anyone
)
Oooh
Aaah
No cigar
Well, yes, and this is a huge problem. You can have all the complicated math you like, but if it doesn’t ultimately explain how the world works, then it isn’t science.
Yes, which some physicists say is bad for physics, because it has shut off other approaches to the discipline, including approaches preferred by people such as Einstein and Feynman.
It is like English departments that more than a decade ago were over run by post-modernism almost to the complete exclusion of all other forms of analysis. It took another 15 years before it was accepted that there is more than one way to analyse a text, and that academics (and students) shouldn’t be judged simply based on what is fashionable at the time.
Yes as an adviser.
He also thinks that everyone infected with AIDS should be effectively quarantined in concentration camps.
People shoudl remember that massively reducing energy consumption is more than just a reduction in consumerism and house size. Less than half our power conumption is domestic. We need to revise how our shopping centres are lit and air conditioned, rebuild old inefficient hospitals, improve public transport and the electricity grid, and shut down or force to modernise many industries. In short, it means the reconstruction of the entire Australian economy. That too hard? Then like ShowsON said, we have to go nuclear. Even if we achieved Denmark’s level of wind power, and Spains level of solar, we woudl still be way short of half our current power usage.
He is from Eupen, which is a German-speaking town right on the Belgian-German border, and it was actually in Germany until 1918. Does his accent sound either French or Dutch to you?
Economic analysis of non-voters in Higgins.
Enrolled: 88,000. Turnout: 80%. Turnout in 2007: 94%.
By-election turnout loss: 14% or 12,300 electors.
Fines payable by non-voters: 12,300 x $20 = $240,600.
Assume: All non-voters were disgruntled Labor voters, who could not bring themselves to vote Greens and would prefer to stay at home.
Possible spin angles:
1. The Greens, by being unpalatable to Labor voters, caused a windfall one-quarter of a million dollar windfall to treasury coffers.
2. Labor, by refusing to stand a candidate, caused a one-quarter of a million dollar loss to their traditional supporters.
Any other spin angles ?
I’ve never heard an accent quite like it.
Pretty amazing that he only migrated here in 1996 and and was in the Senate by 2007 (much to Ross Lightfoot’s annoyance).
No.
ShowsOn,
I agree that there should be more diversity. Are there any other promising avenues?
I’m reading Feynman’s “Easy-and-not-so-easy pieces” (60′s and 70′s). It’s a bit of a struggle but he was a great communicator.
Wasn’t Monkton partly responsible for the South African president being in denial about AIDS? Or am I thinking of someone else?
It’s a Belgian-German accent. They speak a Rhenish dialect of German, so it probably has a local accent. I’m told by people who live in Germany that even if you don’t speak German you can tell Rhinelanders from Saxons from Bavarians from Berliners by their accent after only a short time.
Psephos,
Do you have a special field in your study of linguistcs (Teutonic?). I’m very keen on sorting out the Romance languages on the Iberian peninsula.
Monkton, like a high proportion of english Lords, is a nutter. He should be laughed at, as many english people sensibly do to him.
Plimer should be asked why he isn’t doing his day job at Adelaide uni? Plimer and Monkton and several others should all be asked who has paid for them to swan around Copenhagen (not a cheap city) for several weeks at an alternative “conference”. I doubt Adelaide Uni has put up Plimer’s airfares.
Shame on the uni for not disiplining Plimer for unprofessional conduct. (He claims to be an academic while commenting on issues outside his field of academic expertise; he is a geologist not a climatologist. I have heard he also talks to first year students about CC theories when he is supposed to be teaching them geology, again in breach of academic rules).
As I have said before, someone is paying for all this. I wish a few journalists out there woudl start investigating the money trail on all this “skeptical” activism. The actions of these “skeptics” are about as spontaneous and personal as pro-government rallies in Iran.
Wisconsin did Plimer get an invite to COP15? Or, is he just peripheral?
Yes, backpacking around Germany over a decade ago this was very obvious. The accent gets thicker the further south you go; the opposite to england. You could tell Bavarians instantly.
Socrates,
As you can, generally, differentiate Queenslanders (Strine) from Melbournians (clipped) from Adelaideans (a bit Kiwi). No?
Well there aren’t many, but my point is that, according to its critics, string theory just comes up with more and more seemingly implausible scenarios to explain how the world works, while moving further and further away from things that can be tested.
Feynman won the Nobel prize for the quantum electric effect, but he only won that prize after there were experiments that supported his theory. We don’t see string theorists winning Nobel prizes, because they haven’t been able to verify anything yet, even though the discipline is now 25 years old.
I’m not so sure about this. If Adelaide Uni sanctioned him for his silly book, then they would just become part of the global conspiracy. Many scientists in and outside of Australia have pointed out hundreds of mistakes in Plimer’s book, which of course, is how knowledge should be tested.
Censorship would just be perceived by the nutters that they are right.
vp
Indeed; in Queensland I could perceive a difference between country and city people too. Friends in Adelaide suggest I say certain words “wrongly”. I reply that I speak the proper Queens(land) english
To my ear the Adelaide accent is the most english of any Australian state accent.
Australian accents are more class based than regional. An upper class Queenslander sounds much the same as an upper class Victorian. (But upper class South Australians are in a league of their own.) Country people generally have broader accents. I doubt you can really tell apart people from different states, but from the same class.
ShowsOn
I wasn’t referring to the book. He can write comics if he wants. The behaviours I referred to are in breach of academic behavioural standards.
ShowsOn,
Science is slow but enexorable. Many scientists have got a little bit wrong: Newton, Bohr, Einstein, but many of them have added to our knowledge. OUR job is to sort out the wheat from the chaff. “Scientists” like Monkton and Plimer will soon be winnowed.
Can’t spell for quids. Sorry.
There are some pronunciation differences.
NSW Skewl for school
Victoria graf for graph (grarf).
I’m reading “Heisenberg’s War” at the moment. Bohr was a very admirable man. Heisenberg less so, though I’m not far into it yet.
Where do they say “grarf”? I’ve never heard that.
Psephos
I can think of several words (eg “school”) that Adelaide people, whether from public or private schools, think I say “wrongly”. Hence I think there are some small state differences. But I agree with you on the class issue too. Xanthippe and I both attended private schools in Brisbane less than a kilometre apart, but her anglican school taught her to say “castle” differently to what the catholic one taught me. Overall though, I would agree that accent differences in Australia are far less than in UK, USA or Germany.
Sure, but it doesn’t happen via academic discipline. Their ideas just don’t last the test of time, i.e. of hundreds of better scientists researching and publishing evidence to the contrary.
I would say however that the climate denial fashion seems to be something of the internet age. Barry Jones points out that there wasn’t such denial in 1989 when the Montreal Protocol banned the production and use of CFCs in order to stop the ozone layer from depleting. Businesses, including some multinational chemical companies, just got on with the job of developing alternative chemicals that could do the same job but without causing the same damage, even if it meant pouring in millions of dollars for R&D, which ultimately meant those new chemicals were much expensive.
We have the internet paradox, more information is easily available to more people, but figuring out what is garbage and what is good is just harder now than ever before. I think that is what leads some people to climate denial, they are just overwhelmed, so they say that the status quo must be OK.
The real laugh about SA english is the spelling. I couldn’t beleive that Victor Harbor is the official spelling of a place name! Outer Harbor proves that lightening does strike twice in the bad spelling stakes
South Australia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Australian_English
An upper class Queenslander? Candidates? I guess Sallyanne Atkinson might be one but I still think I could place her there. The current lot of pollies in Q seem reasonably easy to place. Maybe they aren’t upper class or are just putting on the style for electoral advantage.
And yet when the film Pearl Harbor was released here, we got the U.K. posters that all said Pearl Harbour, even though Pearl Harbor is an actual place!
John Moore, Jim Killen – Killen had a very fruity accent. Moore had that lazy upper class drawl.
*guten nacht lieblings*
Showy
Just for you.
http://www.cracked.com/article/153_nuke-moon-5-certifiably-insane-cold-war-projects/
Watch out for those pellets showy, they can get stuck in your throat.
William,
Give us a poll. Poll the bludgers.
I actually find Australian accents to be situational or cultural based, rather than class based.
For example, there is a distinctive prison accent. Anyone who has done an overnight train journey between melbourne and sydney or Melbourne and Adelaide will know what I mean
the horse-racing industry seems to have a distinctive acent. So does Australian rules football.
NRL players have a distinctively differnt accent from AFL/victorian players. Just listen to Matty Johns or Fatty versus Matty Loyd or Tim Watson.
I shit you not – I have a real sense of accent groupings from cultural groupings like sport….oh …and people from Adelaide defintely say caaasltemain, not casle-main
gee its good to have broadband back
Does anyone really believe Abbott would do this?
http://www.theage.com.au/national/rudd-has-no-clout-with-banks-abbott-20091209-kk29.html?autostart=1
VP,
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,26461988-953,00.html
Good no-god,
Is anarchy about to break out in NSW Labor? Calls for rank and file pre-selection !!!
http://www.smh.com.au/national/powerbrokers-plea-for-grassroots-say-on-mp-20091209-kk3m.html
Just when you thought he had filled his brain explosion quota for the week…
It’ll probably be a 5c cut in petrol excise next week
Oh dear…
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/abbott-made-250-billion-costing-blunder/story-e6frfku9-1225808841784
For some strange reason, I can see Jensen’s Facebook page – others can’t, but I found this.
The big difference in Qld between City and country people is that country people speak slower than city folk.
It probably has something to do with the pace of life in the city verses the more laid-back and leisurely lifestyle of country people.
I disagree with Psephos on the “class difference in accents especially the Adelaide one. I come from country Qld and my wife from Adelaide. We both basically are from the same class, but my BH still has her distinct Adelaide accent after being in Qld for 27 years.
So there has been no cultural influence on her accent by being in Qld for that time!
I agree with Socs about the “englishness” of Adelaide accents and thing it similar to south island of NZ.
http://www.newscientist.com/blogs/shortsharpscience/2009/12/rumours-that-first-dark-matter.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-news
I reckon one could strap some buttered toast to People Skills’ back, push him off a tall building… and he’d still land face first in the dirt with both feet stuck in his mouth.
Error: please type a comment.
More on the calls for grass roots democracy in the Blue Mountains:
http://www.bluemountainsgazette.com.au/news/local/news/general/alp-defers-macquarie-decision/1700154.aspx
Scorpio@2314:
I’m betting that she got to queensland at or after puberty.
Once you reach puberty, it is odds on that you will retain all or most of your accent, and will not take up the accent of the place you go to.
I spent three years in Canada as an adult, and thought I would live there at one stage, but apart from some vocab, I did not change my accent at all.
oh, what is Abbott then?
Any chance of Swan following suit?
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/news/britain-imposes-tax-on-bank-bonuses/story-e6frg90x-1225808869521
Gary Johns seems to be a bitter man as well as a CC sceptic. He manages to avoid saying anything sensible in the whole article.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/thank-heavens-cap-and-trade-is-dead/story-e6frg6zo-1225808817696
Obviously, the wisdom of the Africa Queen has gone down the Solomon mine with the banana eating apes (with an apology to the great Apes):
http://www.smh.com.au/business/how-the-top-banana-slipped-20091209-kk63.html
According to Crikey yesterday, this is also the way she runs her executives:
http://www.playbill.com/images/photos/fgocaesarjournal460b.jpg
Maybe someone should throw an asp across the table at the next boardroom meeting
Alisonwatch: Like Miranda, she is also wetting herself in great gush over Abbott.
Senator Abetz, new Shadow Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations, retells a story from his university days that he claims is an argument against penalty rates:
On 774 ABC Melbourne a listener claimed to have threatened Westpac to take her loan elsewhere and they responded by offering her 20 points less on her interest rate (i.e., back to the RBA’s rise), which she accepted. Now that it’s gone out on the airwaves I imagine that Westpac will be getting plenty of phone calls.
Abbott’s attack on Rudd’s limp wristed attitude to the big banks is certainly timely.
The only real winners from the ETS would be the coporate cowboys and market manipulators who have made billions from the European carbon market, naturally at the expense of ordinary consumers. The ETS is simply another opportunity for ordainary people to be ripped off!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jan/30/eu-carbon-trading-scheme
Finns
the carbine is often shrill,but today’s effort was a laff.
She reminds of those people who read stories to kids at the local library.
Lots of oohs and aahs but basically just a fairy story
I think Mr Squiggle is right about situational accents. They are actually sub-cultural accents, which serve to integrate people into the sub-culture and mark it off from the wider culture. There is a gay accent, there is a lesbian accent, there is a crim-junkie-bikie accent (which I guess is the prison accent Mr S refers to), there is a Koorie accent, there is an aussie-wog accent (which is not the same as a Greek or Italian accent, it’s a distinct aussie-wog accent, as heard in the brilliant series Fat Pizza).
Is it really?
A debate that ended in favour of the ETS, and was then hijacked by the insane loud right minority. That’s debate?
How do you know?
Garnaut report, white paper, green paper, senate inquiries. Yeah, they just jumped right in and didn’t look at anything else. How cowboyish.
You still don’t know what an ETS is, do you?
Thanks, I needed my hearty chuckle this morning!
Mr Johns, I sincerely hope you find some brain cells somewhere soon, as it’s clear from this dribble that you don’t have two to rub together at present.
Would that be the same limp wristed attitude that Costello had?
Anyone who believes Abbott, the small government, private enterprise campaigner, would do anything to stop the banks from over charging would believe in the tooth fairy as well.
vp #2301
* Where did Prince Harry spend those few months in Oz, huh?
* The Duchess of York’s sister’s first husband owns a property near Gundi, where DoY holidayed.
* Senator Ian Macdonald (Lib) grandparents (or parents; the former, I think ) entertained HM & Phil during their 1954 visit, and the family was still entertaining royals & aristos c1970 (probably later; probably still do).
* Lord Wedgwood’s cousins live on the southern Downs (and were well & truly visited by every “front name & title of UK china factories)
* There are a few others whose names I forget, who were part of the circle entertaining Harry – a couple of whom have impressive titles they don’t use “at home”.
* Don’t forget Alexander Kerensky
Trittons owned a furniture factory and lage retail business.
* Brisbane was also the home of a contingent of White Russian aristocrats who emigrated from refuges in China & Manchuria, some when the Japanese invaded, some when Mao won.
From c1870-1970, Southern Queensland from the top of the Range westwards at least to Charleville was one of the, if not the wealthiest ag/pastoral area in the world, and many of the first white settlers military officers, some from “the upper 10,000″, some with good connections thereto, especially Patrick Leslie and his Brothers of Canning Downs (near Warwick) and Charles Archer and his family. Charleville, especially Corones Hotel was the centre of W Qld society. The wealthy owed Brisbane “rooms” (suites) in The Mansions, or had regular bookings at Brisbane’s beautiful, elegant Bellevue, Gresham and Carlton Hotels (the last owned by the Waterhouse family); also Town houses on Moreton Bay (Sandgate/Shorncliffe) on the Clayfield/Albion and other Brisbane hills, and “hill station” cities Toowoomba and Warwick (& often fodder & drought-relief farms in the area). Many of the SEQ cities’ town houses have survived, as have elegant old farm houses like Gowie, Glengallan and Goomberra. The Great Strike of 1891 began in the Jondaryan woolshed. Although it was unsuccessful, strikers telegraphed AWA unionists at Barcaldine.
In a vast, sparsely-settled C19 state, where everyone gathered for wool sales & in Brisbane for the Exhibition & its balls, races etc, and Easter- October travel between homesteads via “the back roads” west of the Great Divide fast & easy, most rural families knew one another & intermarried; and many had family members (like both of my grandmothers) who were living chronicles of family history – that’s everyone’s family history & scandal, as in “Didn’t he marry one of the …? Her brother married … etc”.
And more than titles are “not used at home”. Affecting one’s “plum” voice “at home” is the sure sign of a wannabe not “the real deal”.
Dario 2310
Why do you object to this? Abbott may be crazy but I suspect he is right on this. I have felt for some years that banks have effectively become natural monopolies due to the economies of scale in electronic banking. Hence the assumptions about the nature of the banking market at the time of deregulation are now false. As a result there is no rational reason (economic or otherwise) to think they will be efficient. Just because our banks didn’t collapse in the GFC, doesn’t mean customers get good value, or that they aren’t a drag on the economy. Quite a few economists think it is time to re-regulate banks, and I agree with them.
Kerensky applied for a lectureship in history at Melbourne Uni, and they rejected him on the grounds that he had no academic qualifications. Can you believe it? They could have had one of the central figures of the Russian revolution lecturing at Melbourme and they passed him over for some dull worthy with an Oxford degree. Kerensky went on to Stanford and became one of the great Russian scholars of the century, although he didn’t publish much.
Ya, sure. This is Howard speak for “We really are going to do bugger all”.
Just now on radio Chris Uhlmann actually tried to paint as a virtue the Liberal split on the ETS, saying that “at least they had a debate”, whereas the Labor caucus waved it through with barely a murmur. What he didn’t say is that this is the difference between government and opposition, not Liberal and Labor. When Howard was PM the Liberals waved through just about everything as well.
a) It’s a populist stunt
b) It removes serious competition (yes, other improvements are needed to increase competition for the smaller players who suffered under the GFC, but this is not the way)
c) When banks were regulated their service was no better than it is now
d) If banks cannot decide on their own interest rates, they will stop lending to certain people (low income earners), just as they used to before deregulation, or may limit lending significantly opening the possibility for a housing market crash
e) Deposit rates would be reduced, and people who save money would lose out
f) People will still whinge when interest rates go up, and still not switch banks
g) It’s a populist stunt
OPT 2334
Fascinating! I was born on the Darling Downs (Roma) and my parents still wax lyrical about it. You are right about the pastoral wealth going back. Anecdotal evidence but my father said that in the 60s Toowoomba had the most profitable Mercedes Benz dealership in the country. My grandfather was apparently quite well off but a lot of the money was lost through an unscrupulous town solicitor (things never change).
To me the economic decline of the area is a tragedy of waste. A lot of money was squandered by the squatocracy. Soil management was appalling; I can recall lecturers in second year engineering bemoaning the thousands of tonnes of topsoil blown off the Downs and into Moreton Bay ever winter, thanks to lack of windbreaks.
Government didn’t help either. The soldier setttlement scheme was a disaster; too many blocks too small to support a family. The Qld Nationals made some key decisions about dams and water allocation based on parochailism not need. Much of the best land on the lower Downs and border rivers has been degraded through water being allocated away from them. Areas around St George used to be excellent country, but some is now low grade grazing only.
I heard Penny Wong on radio this am being remarkably frank about how badly Hopenhagen was going. It sounds like there is a lot of finger-pointing, inflammatory language and blame-shifting but very little compromise.
Normally the spin at talkfests is so bad that if the two sides have a shoot-out and all are lying dead slumped in their chairs, the press release says that it is promising that the negotiators are still at the bargaining table.
Remember, Janet and friends were only put on the ABC board to play Sudoku
This by Mathew Franklyn in the OO -
7 others are under construction of course but let’s skip over that.
So Rudd has failed and the scheme is in “tatters” because these clincs have not been completed in 2 years or won’t be completed in 3 years, even though Rudd didn’t promise 3 years? Give me a break. Without Rudd we wouldn’t have any GP super clinics and have no prospect of getting any.
Abbott is a god-botherer. His fundamental belief is the truth of a gigantic fairy tale.
Why wouldn’t he believe in fairy tales concerning the affairs of mere mortals.
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/abbott-a-cowboy-on-400bn-ets-figure-says-get-up/story-e6frfku0-1225808908726
I daresay there’d have been precious little debate within the Coalition leading up to Howard’s policy announcement of “the world’s most comprehensive emissions trading scheme”, with which they ran at the last election.
Did Tuhlman mention that, in the context of debate about ETS?
Psephos
Parochialism was pretty strong in Australian universities prior to the 70s. At UQ in 1938 Karl Popper applied to be head of philosophy, with no shortage of academic qualifications or personal connections. It was 1938 and he was desperate to get out of Europe. He was passed over for a local ex public servant! His referee list included Rudolf Carnap (Professor of Philosophy at Chicago), G.E. Moore (Professor of Philosophy in Cambridge), Niels Bohr (the Nobel Prize winner in Physics), and Bertrand Russell. See:
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/science/ockham/stories/s632081.htm
This trend may be getting worse again now too I fear as both sides of politics use high level University administration positions to give jobs to former pollies.
You’d be right there. When Senator Boswell was directly told that the Coalition policy at the last election was for an ETS he stated “I didn’t know that. I mustn’t have been listening at the time”.
Gary Johns:
Yeah, because everyone knows that climate change will effect other parts of the world but not Australia.
Including support for an ETS.
Re-regulation won’t work… too comp-licated.
What we need is another Commonwealth Bank that does not require massive profits to justify its existence.
That’d learn ‘em.
Dario 2339
Replies:
If banks are natural monopolies there is no effective competition.
When banks were regulated fees and interest rate margins were LOWER than now. I.e. the cost of banking was less. Hence you are incorrect.
In a world credit market the lending argument no longer applies. You can just regulate the maximum difference between retail and wholesale rates.
Depositors won’t lose; that market is competitive; bank profits would decline instead.
People don’t switch banks because of the outrageous fees and govt taxes levied when they do. The “deregulation” has not fixed this.
You don’t have to go back to the old days where everything was regulated. There are two extremes (over and under-regulated) and both are stupid. But I think we are under-regulated.
He mentioned that in having a debate the Liberals were being “honest”, but, no, he did not mention the Liberals’ ETS policy at the last election, nor how “honest” it is to take to an election a policy that, apparently, they didn’t really believe in.
She’s just setting the stage for when Kevin arrives and comes up with the magic formula that saves the world.
ShowsOn @ # 2005
I am having difficulty keeping up with all the posts lately so maybe this point has been settled.
I was under the impression from comments Senator Wong made in the Senate that permits and credits could be held over time. She specifically explained that if held over time these permits and credits would increase in value. She was answering a question by Senator Milne who was concerned that these “assets” might depreciate in value.
What reference do you have to show that permits and credits expire?
As a practical example, if a company estimates its omissions would be X and accordingly purchased credits or was given permits for those estimated emissions and the actual emission came in under that estimation it would seem unfair and unequitable for the company to loose the utility of those “assets”. If the value of those assets does expire then it would be a big incentive on the company to always underestimate what its emissions would be.
This might result in an administrative penalty for the company however it is not too difficult to see where it would be cheaper for the company to pay such a penalty rather than loose the value tied up in those assets.
As I said, there are better ways to increase competition for the small players who were hurt due to the GFC
No, I’m right. Margins were lower, so banks weren’t able to lend as much, and restricted lending to certain people.
I never said you couldn’t. However this causes the issues I have already mentioned.
You are wrong. The regulations you are talking about would limit deposit rates because banks would have to contract as their core business (lending) would be restricted. Therefore they would have to limit the money they paid out in interest also.
That’s because people are lazy. It needs to be made easier to change banks. The government has tried to do this, but few people know about it or are willing to make the effort. That needs to change.
So exactly what would you regulate?
I must say it’s bizarre that both the Right and the Left are using the same analogy for the Copenhagen Agreement. The Munich Agreement comparison is everywhere.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/climate-deal-backers-like-nazi-appeasers/story-e6frg6n6-1225808858521
I guess if Copenhagen is a flop, the MSM will blame Kevin Rudd!
“the horse-racing industry seems to have a distinctive accent”
Thank God. It isn’t just me. They all sound like Ken Howard and Clarence the Clocker. And people from inner Sydney talk like machine guns. You mentioned Johns and Vautin (and isn’t HIS time up!) of the NRL. Does anyone remember Tugger Coleman from Souths? You needed to replay his 45s on 33 to get even the faintest idea of what he was saying. Interestingly, the bloke who replaced Tugger, Tricky Trindall, came from the same area and even though he was Aboriginal to Tugger’s gub, they sounded like twins.
Behaved like twins too, at times, but that is another story. One that Alan Jones can tell as soon as he gets out of Tone’s size 18 ears…
There’ll certainly be some crowing that Copenhagen was never going to work so Rudd’s rush to get the ETS past the Senate was all spin, vanity etc. etc.
Of course, the fact that our Opposition (and several others in key countries) have been agin’ doing anything also helps to make possible Copenhagen failure a self-fulfilling prophecy.
evan 14 = 2357
The problem with the MSM spinning it that way, as is the problem with all spin is the reverse side of the coin. Would they spin it, like Psephos suggests, as a great victory for Rudd if Copenhagen is successful?
And if it does work, they will blame him for ‘selling us out’
No they would say it wasn’t successful or play the “look out! your electricity bills are set to increase by $2000″ card. Then they’d quote someone from the Opposition stating that the whole thing is a mess and will cost x jobs. Then they’d quote someone from the Greens saying that the Copenhagen Agreement locks us in for failure.
You don’t get it, do you? They are all pretending that Copenhagen is going to be a flop (Flopenhagen?), so that when Kevin and his loyal sidekick Barack arrive, Kevin can unveil his magic formula that saves the world, and then they can all weep with gratitude etc.
Kevin is a god-botherer too….some of his disciples must be infected with the same susceptibility to fairy tales.
I hope you’re right Pseph. However, it seems clear that there are going to be no legally binding outcomes from Copenhagen, so even if there is an ‘agreement’ it will be spun by the naysayers as being pointless, and thus a failure by Rudd.
Finally Labor calls Abbott out on his rediculous ETS costings:
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,26466172-952,00.html
I don’t want to embarrass you, or anything, Psephos, but I love you for 2363. My day just got happier!!
No. The Australian Emissions Units have a vintage year, they can only be used to ‘pay’ for emissions in that year. At the end of the year they effectively expire, because they can’t be used to cover emissions in future years.
You probably heard Wong and Milne debating carbon reforestation offsets that can be held onto provided the source of the offsets still exists. i.e. if a business pays to grow a plantation Forrest, it can claim offsets while the plantation is alive, but if it is harvested, then the offset no longer exists.
I heard on radio yesterday that wind farms have to be stopped when the temperature reaches 34 deg. Is that correct?
I take what I can get, BH.
I haven’t heard that before, but I know that there are wind turbines in Adelaide that automatically disengage from the generator when it gets too windy in order to avoid damaging the generator.
It is possible that these things are related, if it is too hot then that could burn the generator out.
We all are susceptible. Believing what we want to believe (confirmation bias) is part of what makes us human.
It depends on the design of the wind turbine. Most work up to 40C if they are designed for hot countries.
Shows On @ 2366
Maybe they do read PB and picked up on my post @ 1866 yesterday
BB2350
Yes, one government banking competitor would do the trick, and eliminate all of the points Dario and I were debating.
Thanks Showson – what a bloke ringing a shockjock last night and complaining about renewable energy instead of nuclear. I hadn’t heard it before either so didn’t know whether to take it seriously.
Some up to 50C these days
So is it a safety mechanism to avoid generator damage?
Unemployment down to 5.7%
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0?OpenDocument
As for political tragics, I confess that I played a boardgame called 1960 the other night based on the 1960 Kennedy – Nixon presidential contest. I loved it! It is a well balanced game and I found myself barracking for Nixon!! It also had a lot of funny historical trivia and made me think of some parallels between Australian and US politics:
Richard Nixon = John Howard (both slick lawyers who tried early and failed then came back a few years later)
George W Bush = Tony Abbott (sharing IQs and faith)
Karl Rove = Nick Minchin (but is Minchin as smart?)
Damn that useless stimulus package!
in other (non-Copenhagen related) news, the unemployment rate has fallen by 0.1%
http://www.theage.com.au/business/unemployment-in-surprise-drop-20091210-kl2p.html
Snap!
That probably means another interest rate hike in Feb.
The unemployment trend is now also down! Has it peaked???
There would have been one anyway. Rates are very, very low atm.
I haven’t heard the thing about wind generators and heat before either. I understood that they disengage when the wind is too turbulent to avoid damaging the blades and they are usually geared to top out powerr-wise at a certain upper wind speed. I don’t know if that is to do with damaging the turbines.
And now we get to listen to Erica Betz and Joe Hockey try to explain how it is bad for the unemployment rate to be declining.
Could it be that if it is really windy they will make a lot of noise, and perhaps exceed accepted noise levels?
Excellent news about unemployment. I said a few months ago that things would improve further once the various stimulus projects reached the construction stage. Swan, Tanner, Albanese, Treasury and the RBA have all done a great job.
Probably. Plenty of electronics in modern turbines nowdays, so all that semi-con gear would only be rated to a certain high and low temp as well.
Because it will force interest rates up!
ShowsOn and Ratsars
I am not sure about whether permits (Emission Units) expire.
There is an example at the bottom of the government web page
http://www.climatechange.gov.au/government/initiatives/cprs/how-cprs-works/obligations-on-directly-affected-businesses.aspx
which seems to involve the surrender of older vintage (=banked) permits.
They will say it means the Government jumped the gun with the stimulus and it wasn’t required?
John F Kennedy = Kevin
Franklin D Roosevelt = Kevin
Mahatma Gandhi = Kevin
Mother Theresa = Kevin
Nelson Mandela = Kevin
Joan of Arc = Kevin
St Francis of Assisi = Kevin
The Black Virgin of Cz?stochowa = Kevin
It seems the Libs are still convinced they can regain government at the next election and that the November 2007 defeat was just the electorate giving them a “message”!
The master strategist, Howard, is still directing operation from behind the lines trying to make it up to them for the loss.
Current strategy seems to be to combine the strategies that Howard believed contributed to their extended term in government (ie wedges and dog whistles) together with the strategies which worked for them so well in 1975!
ie try and make Parliament so unworkable as to frustrate Labor’s policy implementation to such an extent that it is almost impossible to govern the country.
The Liberals will then hold themselves up as the “only” Party that is capable of effective government as we the people, realise just what a grave error of judgement we made in thinking that Labor had what it takes to effectively govern the country!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/10/2767283.htm
Clearly the stimulus targeted the wrong seats ….
I can’t wait to hear the spin on this one.
Another interesting stat was released yesterday from the ABS that didn’t get much coverage:
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mediareleasesbyCatalogue/7B5474B6858E05C3CA2573B5000DAB4E?Opendocument
I don’t get this, do they just wait by the phone for a call up or something? If people are this lazy, (ie, I want work but can’t be bothered looking for it) why would you want to employ them?
Wind turbines are usually sited away from housing because of the noise issue. I doubt that is it.
Nuclear power plants (the standard ones) certainly need to be shut down if their cooling water eg from nearby rivers gets too hot. France frequently has problems with power supply in hot summers.
Dave55
There are a lot of people who have current sources of income eg especially partners or study scholarships, who would choose to join the work force if the job that they really wanted was available.
From my reading of that page it means emissions units that are going to expire in FUTURE years can be used in earlier years. But, emissions units with a vintage of a particular year can not be used for later years.
For example, let’s say a coal power generator needs 50,000 permits a year, but is worried that the price of permits will arise steeply in the future. They could invest in permits with vintage years for the next 3 years. But then lets say they come up with a new technology to put their emissions underground, so they no longer need the future dated permits, they could use the future vintage permits to pay for their current year emissions.
Spin – the Greens will “never negotiate” and would prefer to do nothing rather than compromise.
However, the spin is not spinnable at all times.
The Greens have compromised on the ACT gay partnership laws following veiled threats from Rudd to over-turn the whole Act.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/10/2767136.htm
Normally they are allowed to buy a temporary waiver to release hotter than normal water.
The French are of course notorious for their dislike of hot water.
Dr Good
Noted, but the ABS stats show that 94% of those people identified in the survey weren’t looking for work. While these people were willing to work, presumably the job would have to land in their lap for them to get it.
I just think this is lazy.
The people you were referring to are people that are probably looking (although possibly not that hard).
Thanks ShowsOn 2401. That makes sense.
Note: William is now on Facebook and needs lots of new friends.
I suppose we cannot do without the Citizen Electoral Council’s contribution to the climate change debate:
But don’t forget that, nevertheless, every rise is Kevin Rudd’s fault.
Well, if they are actively seeking work then they count as unemployed. If they aren’t actively seeking work, they don’t count as unemployed because they are considered outside of the labour market.
Hey Psephos – 2395 – now you’re really looking for all I’ve got to give today. l0l
Tell Dennis Jensen.
How silly of me. You are of course correct.
Dave55
Some people would argue that it is good that people who are not desperate for work stay out of the employment market. Another sub-group of these people are retired people who have enough to live on but are just being honest and saying that they would get back into the workforce if the right interesting job came and landed on their lap: eg, an old employer pleaded with them to come back part-time to pass on some skills.
Cool graph comparing our unemployment rate. Put it this way, we only have the Netherlands to beat:
http://www.news.com.au/business/jobless-rate-falls-to-57pc/story-e6frfm1i-1225808983205
ShowsOn 2403
You are right. That does happen quite a lot. However, it is pretty bad for the environment when the extra-hot water is released into the rivers, when it is already a hot summer.
Shows On @ 2401 and Dr Good,
s.129 of the CPRS Bill covers this issue.
emission units from a vintage year can be uded to cover the eligible financial year of that vintage or any year after that vintage. In other words, the emission units don’t epire.
Carrying forward the units is also possible, ie, a unit from vintage year 2013 can be used for 2012 but there is a cap of 5% for this (see s. 130 (4))
The exception to the above is 2011 when the units will have a fixed price of $10. These units will have a vintage year of 2011 and cannot be used for any subsequent years (same applied for the free permits issued to IETIEsfor that year as well).
I hope this helps clarify things.
Seems like it was an interesting party last night!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/10/2767059.htm
Another point about the unemployment – now that ABS are using the larger sample size surveys,these figures should be more reliable than before. There are a few other OECD countries (eg Japan) that claim lower unempoyment rates. However this is deceptive as it often depends on definitions of job seekers and in Japan’s case cultural reluctance to admit you have no job. Either way, it is a very good figure. As investment values improve and boomers start retiring again it will get better still. We will soon be back to skill shortages. Just look at the opposition!
Here’s one for Finns library!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/youtube.htm?v=_hYm5t2v94k
Of course it is, but it doesn’t apply only to nuclear power stations. The gas fired power station at Torrens Island in S.A. must buy a waiver every Summer from the E.P.A. I believe they pay $100,000 in order to continue pouring overly warm water into the Port River (which incidentally has been the home for many years to a pod of dolphins).
In relation to wind speed and effect on wind turbine noise, I suspect there are revolution speeds beyond which the turbines will break. To avoid this happening I believe that the angle of the vanes can be altered to reduce wind impact and reduce the speed. If all this is correct then the noise limits should not be breached.
Having walked near many lines of towers in Europe I believe the noise complaints are mostly bs.
Hot water is not all bad for everything. There are feral tropical fish living in the ‘cooling’ ponds of at least one of the Yallourn power stations.
Some good one line responses here!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/10/2767059.htm
Yes that is my experience of the ones in SA too. They make less noise than a lot of farm machinery, bearing in mind they are in rural areas. The main problem in my experience is jealousy. They are a tidy earner for farmers who lease corners of paddocks for them, but their neighbors don’t get any of the money.
There is just no way on Earth I am clicking on that link
ShowsOn #2145
Takes NewsLtd to spin a silver medal in the employment stakes into “Failed to win gold”!
Suggest this as a new NewsLtd & Coalition theme song
Oh don’t the day seem lank and long
When all goes right and nothing goes wrong,
And isn’t your life extremely flat
When you’ve nothing whatever to grumple at.”
W.S. Gilbert: Princess Ida
All the glorious lyric on “Whene’er I spoke”
This makes the market predictions from late 2008 of 8.5% by mid 2010 look a bit sick now!
It will be interesting just how the Libs and their MSM cheer squad treat this in relation to the stimulus packages and all the other strategies the government put in place to weather the GFC storm.
Just ignore it I suppose and keep on with the line that it is excessive, inflationary and totally un-necessary!
http://www.news.com.au/business/jobless-rate-falls-to-57pc/story-e6frfm1i-1225808983205
“Economic recovery proves that Rudd’s plan for economic recovery wasn’t needed.” Yes, that’ll fly.
But that can’t be, Dave55 @ 2379. I distinctly heard on our ABC this morning that the rate was predicted to go UP to 5.9% and it would be the end of the world, blah blah blah…….
Must get my hearing aid checked.
On a serious note, why do we continue to have to put up with predictions and speculation rather than news? Can’t they wait five minutes until the actual figures are published? I’m too old for all this – in my day the ABC (and before that the BBC) actually told you what had happened in the world, not what was about to happen; possibly would or could happen; or just made it up as they went along. Rant over.
It will still be their line though
It will be interesting to see just how long they stick with that! The current strategy of return to the future, Howard policies is a sure winner too!
The MYEFO released in early November now estimates unemployment to peak at 6.75% in the June quarter of next year.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again, I think the budget will return to surplus in 2013, i.e. the year Labor will be trying to win a third term.
How about: “Abbott blames Rudd for Recovery?”
That was back when it was your ABC. Remember, Janet and co were only put on the ABC board to fetch the lunch orders.
Geez Louise! That stripper had an ugly head on her didn’t she! If I was a bloke it’d be enough to turn me gay
More good news for Kev perhaps?
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-business/govt-expects-xmas-broadband-breakthrough-20091210-kl7m.html
LOL Dario!
Madonna King provides today’s winning comedy piece! No matter what your political persuasion you would have to get a laugh out of this!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/10/2767099.htm?site=thedrum
Yep. For a change Their ABC got the headline right. This is the headline that will win the 2010 Election for the Rudd Govt.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/10/2767456.htm?section=justin
This morning on ABC702 radio, one of the ex-Liberal spin doktors said the Liberal Party is now a false branding. It is no longer liberal, it is now a Conservative Party. The true blue Tories.
My childhood hero… it was always a thrill when he won man of the match and they would interview him after the game, you couldn’t understand a word.
It is know in my family as the ‘Erko’ accent, as in Erskineville. I have relatives on my mum’s side who grew up there, so funerals, reunions etc. become Craig Coleman Man of the Match Conventions. These gatherings also have the added benefit of much more colourful language than what Tugger was allowed to use on camera.
Vera, there was a rumour Hyacinth has turned gay, and very happy, John.
For the information of bludgers and their guests.
“No evidence of ‘battlers’ returning to the Coalition.”
http://www.ozforums.com.au/viewtopic.php?id=6664
Aristotle: thanks for another brilliant piece of statistical analysis!
Fran Kelly and Michelle Grattan this morning were swallowing hook, line and sinker the argument that working class voters live on Sydney’s North Shore.
Finns
Their ABC got it wRONg before they got it right.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/10/2767071.htm
Finns: I hope Blanche kept an eye on Hawkie, he’s been known to be rather keen on strippers!
Did it bring back memories of Scores for the Ruddster?
Their ABC was rather pissed off about today’s employment figures!
Damn it, another anti-Rudd Government script in the bin!
Extra-hot water = energy. You’d think they could use that heat somehow.
evan, I think they keep that script handy and bring it out every month
Only to be disappointed and have to put it away again.
Go read Andrew Bolt’s blog where you can read from people who think the ABC is completely full of pro-government bias.
Nice comparison here between the Denialists Conference of angry confused old white men and the rest of the world.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/plimer-the-toast-of-copenhagen-sceptics-meeting/story-e6frg6xf-1225808821955
Even Janeane Garofalo, in the country for only a few days on her first visit, picked up on the false branding and used it in her act at Melbourne’s Comedy Festival this year.
That’s just gold
It’s a pity that quacks and charlatans like Plimer get so much media coverage!
Vera, from that link you provided, it seems that they are purposely not factoring in the normal increase in hiring that takes place prior to the christmas/New Year season which doesn’t usually start to drop off until after the New year sale frenzy and the stocking up for the winter!
This doesn’t usually affect the unemployment figures until February at the earliest and the way the economy has been going, we could see quite a number of that extra staff kept on which would improve the unemployment figures in the normal falling off period.
It all looks rosy for Rudd going into an election year IMHO!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/10/2767071.htm
Wow, that suggests Monbiot’s theory that denial is related to old age has some legs?
However, the contra side would be a relative of mine who died 2 years ago. In our last discussion together she said that she was very worried about climate change and what that would mean for her 2 grand children.
The 5.7% unemployment figure is seasonally adjusted
SO
There is a strong correlation between age and denialism.
I should add, it was 5.7% both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted
Diogenes,
Matches up pretty well with the numbers and demographic of the audiences Barnaby was getting at his town hall meetings!
Rudd, Gillard and Wong must be terrified!
I’ve sent Grattan my booth analysis of Higgins which proves that this is bollocks. No answer yet
“Australian mining company geologist” is a more accurate description, and it’s time people started using it.
Yeah, but it is a lagging indicator! We have to wait for the December quarter figures to come out yet and then the March quarter figures will tell the full story, seasonally adjusted or not! We will have to wait till then to see whether or not I am rIGHt or not.
It is only “my” reading of the economy but I have been pretty well spot on so far!
IMO only!
Chrisitiana is where the bohemian set hung out and is really the old naval precinct.
It was turned into a commune in the 70′s, and housed both the drug and the bikie scene.
Interesting spot ot have a denial conference
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/travel/taxpayers-lose-over-3-million-after-sydney-ferries-botches-tender-process-for-manly-jetcats/story-e6frezhr-1225808814457
The NSW government sold the Manly Jetcats for $1 mil, then the buyer immediately sold it overseas for $3mil
please tell me it is just imcompetence and not corruption
First Howie doing a strip, now the Ruddster
check out the photo
http://www.cairns.com.au/article/2009/12/10/81235_local-news.html
Stubborn old, white men – how similar is that to the Pauline Hansen demographic?
psephos
van onselen has a particularly obnoxious article in oo today rating Rudd on his election promises. Nothing much about broken promises which, as I recall, were Howie’s norm. But some stuff about promises not yet achieved… superclinics, health etc.
Is there a handy summary somewhere that we can access to see how the PM is travelling vs his promises?
The PBs were right about the media turning the positive job figures into a negative scare on interest rate rises.
Plimer managed to call Gore ‘slime’ in his talk. Grace under stress.
ABC being unusually positive in its main headline
“Economists hail ‘extraordinary’ job surge”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/
Whats this?
(Fake) Dennis Jensen on Twitter: https://twitter.com/DennisJenseno
I like the Bloomberg’s headlines better.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aLaC_8sBRRKc
Allen Moyes 1430
Agree. The ABC “News” coverage of the release of the unemployment data was incredibly irritating. Even if it is not an indication of ABC bias, it is certainly an indication of ABC incomptence. If the ABC wants to start a programme called “ABC Speculation” that is fine. But the “story” of the expected rise in the unemployment rate was carried continuosly on ABC News Radio this morning.
Furthermore, even on “ABC Speculation”, I wonder whether an expectation of a rise of 0.1% would be considered particularly speculative-worthy.
All part of the sad dumbing down all too evident on Bloomberg, MSNBC, Sky Business etc etc
Borewore, I think you’ll find a lot here:
http://www.alp.org.au/media/0609/mspm150.php
Victor Harbor was established as an American whaling town, thus the spelling.
Fen
Thanks. What about Outer Harbor?
Kevin Rudd gets brownie points for his visit to the Cairns Job Expo, while Tony Abbott does a Howard impersonation by following swiftly in Rudd’s footsteps hoping to pick up some of the shine and try and take some of the gloss off Rudd!
Didn’t work for Howard who just about wore himself out trying to follow lock-step with Kevvie during 2007!
http://www.cairns.com.au/article/2009/12/10/81315_local-business-news.html
http://www.cairns.com.au/article/2009/12/10/81305_local-news.html
I’d always assumed ‘harbor’ was due to the areas American whaling history, but Wikipedia offers an alternative explanation: (I’ve never noticed the ‘proper’ spelling of the train station myself – will have to look next time I’m down there)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Harbor,_South_Australia
“Victor Harbor was originally called Port Victor, but its name was changed in 1921, as a result, it is said, of a near shipwreck blamed on confusion with Port Victoria in the Yorke Peninsula. Despite the fact that harbour is normally spelt with a u in Australian English, the name of the city is spelt Victor Harbor. This spelling, found in several geographical names in South Australia, including Adelaide Outer Harbor, is the result of spelling errors made by an early Surveyor General of South Australia. Conversely Victor Harbour railway station is spelt with the u.”
The Liberals think they’re going to win back the seat based around Cairns, because News Ltd told them so!
Dovif -2465
The ferries were sold by open tender, which is the standard approach to disposing of government assetts, the broker who bought them was the only bidder.
All completely above board and good luck to him for turning a buck when no-one else wanted to touch the pieces of crap with a long pole!
I’m actually surprised they got a million for them, they were dogs.
I don’t know if it has been commented on by others but this is another excellent reform out of Albanese’s area:
http://www.minister.infrastructure.gov.au/aa/releases/2009/December/aa523_2009.htm
Reform of State land use planning and integrated transport planning is essential. Most of the time bad transport planning has been preceded by inappropriate development approvals. The Commonwealth doesn’t need to take it over, but shoudl make sure it is all done in a consistent and transparent manner to get Federal funds. This is a genuinely good idea. States that already do a reasonable job on this front, (Qld, Vic adn SA) won’t be too affected. It could stop a lot of the corruption in Sydney land use planning. Not getting Federal funds would be a powerful stick to force compliance.
Thanks Listy! It is a small town, I wonder if the bad spelling guy was an ancestor of Minchin or Downer?
This is a left over from Glen Milne’s “you can see Kirribilli from Chatswood”. I bet you the three of them dont even know where Chatswood really is.
As a local, Chatswood is very much like Bennelong in its ethic composition now. A big chunk of Chatswood was moved acroos to Sloppy Joe’s North Sydney in the recent subdivision. Sloppy could be in trouble in the next election.
Leichhardt is certainly on Labor’s endangered seats list, because Entsch was an extremely popular member. How much of his appeal has survived his absence since his “retirement” in 2007 is unknown. Jim Turnour is also a popular member, and the government will be working to pump up his image. Labor will asking whether Entsch has a real commitment to serving again, pointing out that he’ll be 63 in 2013 so he’d probably retire again if he was elected. But it will still be an interesting contest. There are three key seats in north Qld: Dawson and Leichhardt which Labor will be defending and Herbert which we’ll be trying to win. That depends a lot on whether Lindsay stands again. He’ll be 66 next year.
Spelling was a bit haphazard back then. Moreton Bay, for example, was named by Cook after the Earl of Morton.
I couldn’t believe my eyes when i read these consecutive posts on the Abc site!
Almost like a parallel universe in operation! lol
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/10/2767456.htm
Psephos
63 and 66 would be younguns in Abbotts new lineup
Well, Rudd and Swan have told them that often enough.
Diog, is there a strong correlation between age and being wRONg?
Scorpio
)
On an earlier post of yours by Maddona King, I didn’t realise their ABC were paying her?
Thought she was commercial radio and Courier Mail wangker? (got it rIGHt this time Finns
Best of all, New Zealand was named after the Dutch Zeeland, not the Danish Zealand.
The Danes weren’t allowed to name things again after they named an enormous expense of ice “Greenland”.
vera, the ABC will pay just about anyone to give them the right sort of opinion.
BTW, can anyone tell me what is the point of The Drum? Aren’t we already full to overflowing with second and third hand opinions masquerading as analysis.
Fascinating! Thanks for that
Michael Pascoe’s take on the workforce figures.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/a-beautiful-set-of-numbers–really-20091210-kldx.html
A couple of good digs in the penultimate paragraph (last one in particular):
2485
Psephos
I would not be surprised if Lindsay stood again and if successful would stand again in 2013. He would dearly like to knock off my Grandfather, George Martens record of 18 years consecutive. However if Tony Mooney stands he may get rolled. Mooney always rolled him for Mayor when they were in council and Lindsay just survived Colbran (maccas) 2007.
The boundaries have changed slightly in favour of ALP.
Having said that the ALP council got completely wiped out by Libs in the amalgamation after being almost all ALP since about 1973.
Whisper at the moment round town is they are starting to pong after sacking lots of staff and workers to try to balance the books, so i think Labor has a very good chance of taking back Herbert.
Gaffhook, thanks for that info. But I’m sorry to have to tell you that Fred Bamford held Herbert for 24 years (1901-25).
The term Abbott’s Army, reminds me of a song I once knew….
Abbott’s Army is here to stay, Abbott’s Army are on their way, And I would rather be anywhere else, But here Today.
FYI:
Dio
I am still reading that poor piece of economic sham that you held up as the convincing argument for a carbon tax over an ETS (by Barry Brook on BraveNewClimate).
I notice that you haven’t commented on my post yesterday showing the main argument of the paper was either very sloppy or dishonest.
The 2nd (of four main arguments) is that a Carbon Tax will be more likely to get through a legislature than an ETS. Why, what is the evidence? Because British Columbia and Finland have managed this. The paper conveniently forgets to mention that orders of magnitudes (and I mean real 10s not your 3s) more voters have got themselves ETSs (from EU to NZ). I would also suggest that in current political climate it might be hard to get a Carbon Tax in Australia (when it is actually called a Tax).
The 3rd argument is that a Carbon Tax is good for the economy while an ETS is not. Stay tuned.
By the way, I also hope that you live up to your own lectures to other people and don’t just blindly follow your hero leaders of Hansen and Brook but have a look at their arguments.
Vera, these are the WANGkers:
http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/12/10/abbotts-night-at-the-museum-keeps-the-focus-on-the-libs/
As far as i know, Wang Wang and Funi are still talking to Tiger everyday getting tips and hints in how to get it off and stay a happy family as Elin & Tiger, just a reminder:
http://users.tpg.com.au/tjhpnq98//tigerelin.jpg
The Danes also left us the problem of pronouncing the Anglicized ‘Copenhagen’, which I estimate to be about evenly split across the country between -hay- and -hah- at the 3rd syllable. With the climate conference going on this is a big strain for this pedant.
It’s Copen-hay-gen everyone.
Ian Plimer: “I am speaking here about algal reefs, not Al Gore reefs, although by the way they are both a type of slime.” Plimer is too stupid to see how personal attacks like this do no damage except to his own credibility.
Hey.
At least we uneducated colonials spelled Derby correctly unlike the original English one.
Dr. Good, this Diog bashing has got to stop. It feels good but too much of a good thing is not good for you
Plimer probably thought it was too clever a line to pass up and that overrode his better judgement.
Finns
At least Tiger is still smiling in his Xmas card photo
That’s hardly the Danes’ fault. They know how to pronounce it. The Danish pronunciation is (roughly) Koob’n-HAR-’n. So CopenHARgen is closer to the Danish than CopenHAYgen. The latter is the traditional English pronunciation, however.
Vera, i just love Elin and Tiger. They are such a lovely couple, and in such adversities, they are still hanging in there together and smiling.
Apparently Elin is also making a mozza by advising the other golfers on how to beat Tiger with the right clubs, she’s a real entrepreneur.
Psephos
Another snippet of info is George Martens father was Johann Hinrich Nikolas Martens, born in may 1846 in a small village of Leith bei Heide, in Schleswig Holstien, then possibly denmark but now Germ…any. migrated to Australia in 1865 on a ship out of Hamburg called the SS Sophia which landed in Maryborough QLD Australia. He arrived in Australia with an other Martens, suspected to be his brother called Frans, last known location of Frans was Pialba in QLD.
Stop the boats.
Sorry Diog
Is plagiarism by osmosis a sin?
Indeed, is plagiarism by osmosis plagiarism?
It’s Lieth, not Leith, it’s in northern Holstein. Until 1864 the Duchy of Holstein was in personal union with the Danish Crown, but not actually part of the Kingdom of Denmark. After the Prussian-Danish War (which was fought over the issue of the inheritance of the duchies of Schleswig and Holstein) it came under Austrian administration, but in 1866 it was taken by Prussia during the Prussian-Austrian war and incorporated into Prussia.
When you’re in Hamburg you can see a sign, just west of the centre of the city, which shows you where the Prussian-Danish border was before 1864. Holstein was entirely German-speaking, yet it was governed from Copenhagen. No wonder the Prussians were annoyed about it.
Maybe CopenHARgen is closer to the Danish pronunciation, but in English it’s so different from the actual Danish that I’m not sure that means anything. That pronunciation screeches in my head. I have heard second hand that the Danes prefer Copen-hay-gen if they have to hear it in English, apparently at least partly because CopenHARgen is German and they don’t like that; don’t mention the war (a generalization, but that’s what I was told).
Antony Green’s new Higgins and Bradfield booth graphs are interesting.
I think that currently people think that there was mostly a direct move from 2007 ALP voters to become 2009 Green voters with a little bit a tendency for some of them to switch to the Libs particularly in the less wealth, more ALP areas.
But Antony’s graphs suggest to me a new theory and far more interesting theory. I think that they show that 1) something over 12% of 2007 Liberal voters actually switched to the Greens for 2009 but 2) roughly a quarter of 2007-ALP voters switched to the Liberals (with the rest voting Green).
The combination of these two movements I think would explain what Antony’s graphs show.
I will try to do the stats later. I also would have to factor in the not-turning up issue which seems to have been more prevalent in the 2007-ALP areas but I think that is a secondary effect.
Another interesting pronunciation of a place name is the city of Mackay.
It’s probably due to a substantial infusion of people from other places into the area but there is often four different pronunciations of it.
The most common are Mac (kay) and Mac(kie), but it can also have the emphasis on the first part, MAC(kay) and MAC(kie).
Variants of these four pronunciations can be heard regularly by news readers who often amuse me with their pronunciations of most places that have never been to!
Further to my post 2516
I think that this shows that the Dr Wives are alive and that Abbott is stuffed.
On the face of it, this combination seems to spell bad news for the Libs at a general election.
Uh, how can it be that a person is guilty of driving whilst disqualified, if they didn’t know they were suspended. What am I missing? Can anyone explain.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/10/2767284.htm?section=australia
Perhaps because ignorance of a crime is no excuse? If the relevant agency took all steps to inform him his license was suspended it’s not their fault if he didn’t pick up on that.
I would just like to say once again that stfu rocks
I’m sure that’s so. The Danes, like the Dutch, are still surprisingly snarky about the Germans, even though it’s 65 years ago and they were much better treated than say the Poles or the Czechs. The irony there is that the name is ultimately of German origin – Kaufmannshafen, trader’s port.
I can almost see the advertising now! The Extra Tax Scheme is nothing more than a massive windfall for fraudsters, corporate cowboys and big banks. How is Rudd going to dispute it??? I can’t wait to see the advertising!
http://volokh.com/2009/12/09/europol-reports-massive-fraud-in-the-carbon-credits-market/
PS: As said before, all Abbott has to do is tell Rudd that he’ll fast track the Extra Tax Scheme through the Senate if Rudd can identify the price, post ETS, of anything, eg, a birthday cake.
If they never sent him any notification of it then he might have a case, but it sounds like they did but it just never got to him or was ignored
I think the people at Andrew Bolt’s blog are slowly realising that I am trolling.
Well you tell me now what the price in the latter half of 2011 of a birthday cake will be without an ETS.
DF, what about all the GST evasion that currently occurs? You should get on that bandwagon too…
I think this line from DF’s link is more important:
So it’s not an unfixable problem
Psephos, you’d know far more about this, but from what I’ve read in the press recently, the ALP are apparently quietly confident that James Bidgood can hold on to Dawson(he’s said to be a very active local member).
The Libs are very confident they can regain Leichhardt(because unemployment is much higher in Cairns than other regions of QLD), and Jim Tournour is often baited by them in parliament.
Any truth to the rumour that Tony Mooney will be the ALP candidate for Herbert in 2010?
I give you credit for trying to raise the intellectual tone of the debate over there!
Desert Fox sounds like a certain prophet from 2004 to me.
Evan, you know more than I do it seems. I agree that the high unemployment in Cairns is a problem. Question for Libs: how much worse will it be if the GBR dies?
Dr Good @ # 2393
It looks like the CPRS is developing a language all of it own which is not surprising. From a quick reading of the site you referred to it appears to me that “surrender” refers to those certificates and permits that are offered to cover the emissions for that entity for the current year.
The example seems to demonstrate how permits/certificates (which are referred to as “units”) may be surrendered to cover the omissions for one year.
EG
Emission 50,000
Year 2013/14
Units surrender -DATE Details
2014/15 20,000 (current vintage)
2013/14 17,500 (banked united) (I assume from previous years)
2014/15 2,500 (borrowed units) (I assumed from future year)
Total 40,000
Shortfall 10,000
The example then explains how an administrative penalty will be applied to that shortfall.
I accept that it is not clear but it would appear that permits and certificates could be carried over.
You’re missing the point. The GST is fixed and never changes. The additional ETS cost will be ????????????????????????? What?
How much extra will anything cost??? 10%? 100%? 1000%?
It’s a floating market. The cost of anything will depend on how much people want carbon credits and how much carbon dioxide is produced in a product’s production.
(Who believes anything Rudd’s Treasury says?)
The scare potential is obvious and huge. (Mind you, Rudd’s demand that the public buy his ETS or we are all going to die is appalling. If he really thinks CO2 is destroying the planet then he should be demanding an immediate 100% carbon dioxide cut worldwide, not five percent.)
Ah Joe. Your heart’s just not in it is it…
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/hockey-calls-for-stimulus-spending-cuts/story-e6frfku0-1225809108958
So if the Liberals win Government they plan to ignore Treasury? Very sensible.
How much extra will it cost if we do nothing?
Quote?
psephos
thanks for link. Not, apparently, studied by van O.
apologies to Lear:
There was an Abbott on a hill,
Who seldom, if ever, stood still;
He ran up and down,
In his Grandmother’s gown,
Which adorned that Abbott on a hill.
Barnyard on Slynews.
OMG, it’s painful to watch Barnyard trying to string together a coherent and logical answer. Barnyard will find that as the shadow Fin. Minister, you do have to say something meaningful rather than the foaming at the mouth stuff.
He is struggling.
Surprisingly, Speers looks decidedly unimpressed with Barnyard as the shadow fin minister.
Stop being ignorant:
http://www.climatechange.gov.au/government/initiatives/cprs/who-affected/~/media/publications/cprs/CPRS_ESAS/091124%20Final%20cameos%20for%20publication.ashx
I think stfu is the new religion.
Even Britney can see Barnyard is incoherent and way out of his depth
Now if it can be user adjustable so we can add other people as required ?
You can edit the script yourself. It’s pretty straight forward.
Oh dear, Steve Lewis of News and David Penberthy of Daily Terror are giving Barnyard a bucketing, i mean bucketing, on Slynews.
Joyce to Finance is as Palin to Foreign Affairs. She could see Russia over the horizon, Joyce was once an accountant.
But since you guys started stfu ing bob hasn’t been here!!
So yes, it does rock.
Post hoc ergo propter hoc
I can accept stfu as a substitute for god-bothering.
Dario
Callistemon salignus var pallida
finns, i cant bear to watch Sly News, so tell us more!!
Umm,
Abbott’s Army under fire on the extreme right forward flank. Barnyard blunders into ambush and is under heavy fire from Common Sense forward scouts.
Barnyard finds that Retail Sallies are not working so well now that the enemy is not the left wing of his own army.
The Abbott’s Army commander may have to come and do some straight shooting but the staff work has been found wanting and in skirmishs to date there is plenty of straight shooting but the direction of the shooting shows no particular rational pattern.
Abbott’s Uh Army Uh faces its first test.
zoomster
Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum sonatur
Barnaby is marching into battle with every hope of becoming leader one day.
His knapsack carries within it the Field Mouse’s batton.
He’s already said he doesn’t believe Treasury modelling. They must be in on the conspiracy too, taking orders from their communist/vegan masters.
ltep@2527:
Great comeback, I’ll borrow that one when I need it!
Ok. Here is my analysis of the Higgins result suggested by Antony’s nice new graphs
but now calculated properly according to the actual vote results.
You will see from Antony’s graphs at
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2009/12/bradfield-and-higgins-another-note-on-the-booths.html
that the swing to the Greens was significantly more in the booths that were more Liberal.
How come? Well I think that the following is a pretty reasonable explanation. Let us ask what the flows of voters are from the 2007 TPP ALPvsLib election to the 2009 TPP GRNvsLib election. There are four sorts of flows (ALP-Grn, ALP-Lib, Lib-Lib and Lib-Grn). Let us just assume that the rates are roughly uniform across the booths. That means that a 2007-ALP-TPP voter has as much chance of voting Grn-TPP in 2009 regardless of which booth s/he votes at. Etc.
This will actually cause a difference in the swings at the various booths because at some booths there are more 2007-ALP-TPP voters etc.
So what are the best fits for those four flow rates?
Well I took the actual TPP booth votes for 2007 and 2009 and left out the very small ones (below 800 votes cast) and then made a line of best fit and did the simple maths on the result.
They show the following rates.
88% of 2007 Liberal-TPP voters stayed as 2009 Liberal-TPP voters.
12% of 2007 Liberal-TPP voters switched to 2009 Green-TPP voters.
85% of 2007 ALP-TPP voters became 2009 Green-TPP voters.
15% of 2007 ALP-TPP voters switched to 2009 Liberal-TPP voters.
These flow rates explain the observed both by booth voting patterns very well.
However, I need to do some more work to put a graph up somewhere or
work out the right measure of error in the explanation.
I also haven’t looked at Bradfield yet but Antony’s graphs look similar.
Ah, perfect timing to coincide with the “rebadge” of K. Andrews this week:
[Haneef lawyer wins human rights medal
By Mark Douglass
The Human Rights Commission also praised Mr Keim's bravery in his advocacy of Dr Haneef. (AAP Image: Liam Kidston)
Related Story: AFP reveals $4.6m spent on Haneef prosecution
Related Story: Haneef lawyers welcome end of Keelty era
The lawyer who represented Dr Mohamed Haneef after his arrest by the Australian Federal Police has been awarded the Human Rights Medal for 2009.
The Human Rights Commission has honoured Queensland barrister Stephen Keim SC for furthering the human rights of prisoners, refugees and people with disabilities.
The commission also praised Mr Keim's bravery and courage in his advocacy of Dr Haneef, which it says eventually led to his clearance of terrorism-related offences.
Mr Keim felt he had no choice but to take the extraordinary step of leaking a police record of interview to the media to defend the reputation of his client.
"I had no doubts about it at the time. It seemed to be the right [thing] to do,” Mr Keim said.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/10/2767805.htm
“I was the person in the situation. I had to make the call. I went ahead with it.
“Dr Haneef’s visa had been cancelled on character reasons and [former minister Kevin] Andrews had gone on about 50 million television and radio stations talking about the bad character of someone who was supposed to be facing a fair trial.]
Here is one for Psephos
Abbott most resembles which Civil War general? [I have two in mind].
I missed Kev’s Community Cabinet on tuesday, for those interested there is a replay at 6pm.
I’m going to see if I can spot Toothy, he;s been MIA of late
http://www.a-pac.tv/
DR Good, – 2560
Thanks for those figures.
I think that puts to rest the myth that ” the Greens are unpalatable to Labor voters “.
Thanks for that Vera. I’ll be watching.
Dr Good,
You’re entire analysis is tosh because of this statement: “There are four sorts of flows (ALP-Grn, ALP-Lib, Lib-Lib and Lib-Grn). Let us just assume that the rates are roughly uniform across the booths.”
Read this post and the table makes clear the flows are NOT uniform.
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2009/12/bradfield-and-higgins-which-booths-swung.html
By far the strongest relationship that exists in Higgins is between the ratio of Green primary increase to Labor primary decrease compared to the 2PP swing. The higher the Labor primary vote in 2007, the bigger leakage of primary votes to the Liberals rather than the Greens.
WTF was Abbott thinking when he put Barnyard into Finance?
I just saw Sloppy Joe on the News! His heart is definitely not in it!
you’re welcome Gary
If we do nothing about ‘climate change’ then we do nothing about climate change. We’ll save a whole heap of money and deny scam artists a convenient way to rip people off. The world will keep going as it always has for the past 4 1/2 billion years.
Let those who believe in global warming pay for it. Rudd is really playing with fire with his constant denouncements of those who dispute his ‘planet is doomed’ rhetoric. It’s like something out of North Korea. People who think GW is a load of crap, (Carbon Ain’t Really Pollution) are seething with resentment and contempt for him and all the other warmist maniacs. It’s no wonder citizens in the states build compounds in Montana, challenging the government to come and get them. That’s the attitude that Rudd is encouraging.
evan14
[WTF was Abbott thinking when he put Barnyard into Finance?}
Abbott: “I must do what I’m told.”
Morgan 53-47, or is it 55.5-45.5? Given the primaries, I’d have to go with 53-47, but the sample size was only 490.
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2009/4450/
Desert Fox: I bet you’ll be the first to whine when we have to take in the people from Tuvalu when their island sinks into the ocean!
You have said some stupid things since you arrived but that one wins the stupidity prize.
While we’re at it would you like to suggest:
Let those who have children pay for it
Let those who grow old pay for it
Let those who get sick pay for it
Morgan on Thursday?
Peter Young
Well, I would have hoped that many more ALP voters would have preferenced the Greens above the Liberals but, as we can see from this blog, there are reasonable number of ALP supporters that really don’t like the Greens.
However, I can not believe that all those 15% of ALP voters (who pref Lib above Grn) have got such articulated reasons for their behaviour. I wonder what other explanations are possible?
2560 & 2566
Hang on, now I am confused.
A traditional Labor voter in a “Labor booth” is less likely to vote Green than a traditional Labor in a “Liberal booth”.
However, overall, the tendency in a strong Liberal seat that a traditional Labor voter will vote Green is 85%.
What is the worst case scenario for the Greens getting votes from Labor? In other words, in a booth that swung most heavily to the Liberals, what was the traditional Labor voters transfer rate to Greens.
The International Bark Beetle collective supports the approach of the Desert Fox.
They believe that while ultimately there is a conflict of interest cf: global warming outcomes (more conifer forests v more deserts), there is currently plenty of space for Bark Beetles and Desert Foxes.
Morgan was a ph poll with sample taken 4-9 Dec.
Your evidence for that??? Tuvalu is just playing the ‘give us money’ game.
Being a St Kilda resident I have on numerous occasions offered to buy the houses of GW believers for a pittance, (after all, that’s what they’re worth because they’re about to flooded any day now!) Mysteriously, none have accepted my offer. Equally bizarrely, the median property price in St Kilda keeps skyrocketing. (Drowning must be some kind of pleasure to them.)
Might as well just polled the Morgan office.
Quote one person that has said that.
What’s Morgan up to? ANOTHER try at relevance??
Best thing since sliced bread
Dr Good, – 2575
Here is a theory that would need testing for validity.
ALP voters in “Liberal areas” have high levels of education etc. They look at the policies etc and sift through the various arguments.
ALP voters in “ALP areas” are less self reliant. They are more influenced by the Labor machines dishonest claims that the Greens are “dope-smoking basket weaving cave dwelling homosexuals” – and therefore less inclined to vote Green out of fear of this stereotypical image presented to them.
Oh, thank for that, Hemmingway #2561! Won’t that wipe the slimy sneer off the member for Menzies’ ghoulish phiz!
Every time I see him and/ or Ruddock I think
Great illustrated version on The Rime of the Ancient Mariner (S T Coleridge)
I think the poll was actually more to do with climate change polling. You can see details here.
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2009/4449/
Not much change in overall numbers since Nov, but both Labor and Lib supporters aligning closer to their party’s policies.
It doesn’t help when they preselect candidates, and have Booth workers who DO match that stereotype
Antony, I think that you misinterpret my meaning of the word “uniform”.
I mean that the chance/proportion of an 2007-ALP-TPP voter going to 2009-Lib-TPP is the same no matter which booth they vote at. Let us say that it is 15%. Etc for the other flows (85,88,12).
That would mean that the Green increase at a booth would consist of the flow ALP to Green plus the flow Lib to Green (minus the previous Green first pref) and be about 74-0.73L where L is the 2007 Lib-TPP vote percent. The ALP decrease would be about 100-L’ where L’ is the 2009 Lib-TPP.
The percentage which you calculate in your tables (of Green inc as a percent of ALP dec) would then range from say 60% in ALP voting booths up to 120% in Lib voting booths.
And this is exactly the sort of thing you see in your table!!
(I will do a more careful calculation of predictions of your value later)
This is my form of trolling on Andrew Bolt’s blog:
Hi Andrew,
I notice that Ian Plimer is receiving wide exposure in Copenhagen:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/plimer-the-toast-of-copenhagen-sceptics-meeting/story-e6frg6xf-1225808821955
Plimer? isn’t he the prof who tried to disprove the existence of Noah’s Ark, wow what a brain-box, Did he then move on to Santa, and the easter bunny?
] Psephos
Posted Thursday, December 10, 2009 at 11:46 am | Permalink
….
John F Kennedy = Kevin
Franklin D Roosevelt = Kevin
Mahatma Gandhi = Kevin
Mother Theresa = Kevin
Nelson Mandela = Kevin
Joan of Arc = Kevin
St Francis of Assisi = Kevin
The Black Virgin of Cz?stochowa = Kevin]
If this was as serious post you really have got it bad.
oh dear, all the Dr. Dooms, including one Stephen Long, are now joining the queue to praise the Govt’s Stimpac that was taken “early and surely” and supported employment.
Most Dr. Dooms were predicting unemployment of 7.8%+
Breakdown of Essential re: Abbott’s election and voting intentions is quite illuminating:
Total Labor Coalition Greens
More likely 21% 12% 42% 5%
Less likely 33% 44% 15% 62%
He potentially loses more coalition voters than he gains labor (remember is more likely only) and loses by a large margin ALP and Green voters. So solidifies the base but still gets thrashed
sorry the table is not aligned. first % is total, second is Labor etc
In the memory of Bob12345, 5.7%
The newspoll breakdown on Abbott ALP v LP reveals the same issue: any increase in PPM for Abbott is due to LP voters.
BETTER LEADER 16 45
WORSE LEADER 32 10
ABOUT THE SAME 41 38
UNCOMMITTED 11 7
Newspoll didnt publish party breakdowns for the PPM ratings
Peter Young #2584
Where did you get this crap! I’ve never heard it, and I live in a (state ALP electorate which includes some of SE Qld’s poorest areas). Have ‘lations & friends in the Party & unions, and still haven’t heard it.
Not only that, it’s out of date imagery; more your Nimben/ Daintree Road era (ie late 70s). Same era as “Land rights for Gay Whales”, and that “TAFE Courses List” – “Self actualisation through macrame) etc.
So who’s your source, Mr Young: Joh Bjelke Petersen c1975-9? The current LNP (Have to keep recycling; not enough imagination to think for themselves? The Greens? FF? La Rouche? DLP? Someone else in the “fake slur on blogs” brigade (sub-set of the Fake Email brigade)? Lies like that tend indicate RW smart-alec. Young Liberals, perhaps?
Take a leaf from Tony Weather-Vane’s book and fess up!
One thing’s for sure. The ALP it ain’t!
Dr Good
How about those people who voted Liberal from ALP are afraid of losing their job under a ETS, they might be BHP employee, coal mine worker etc
Or just struggling people who do not want the prices of food to go up
The Finnigans #2592
BTW, what’s happened to Troofie? Captured by angry “returned” boat people? Should we alert Sea Patrol?
Dr Good
Those articles and links didn’t persuade me that an ETS wouldn’t work at all and I certainly didn’t believe all their arguments.
But they did convince me that an ETS could be fudged more easily than a carbon tax. Having read a few books on the way traders exploit markets for enormous profits, and given the difficulty of policing something as vague as carbon emissions and credits, the potential for an ETS market being exploited is enormous.
If the Greens have an image problem it is they who need to work on rectifying it. Although you see ALP supporters on occasion rubbishing the Greens there is very little attention focused on them by the actual party during election campaigns.
Antony
Further to my last post.
First, thanks for commenting on my theory and stats.
I will look in the next few days at the subtleties of your tables and arguments on your blog page and get back to you one way or the other.
Let me just say now hastily that I think that you claim the following statement as evidence against my theory.
“The higher the Labor primary vote in 2007, the bigger leakage of primary votes to the Liberals rather than the Greens.”
Can I just respond that my theory does actually also predict that so it can not be evidence against my theory?
You see that I am suggesting 15% of 2007 ALP-TPP voters switched to 2009 Libs but that 12% of 2007 Lib voters switched to Greens.
This means in an ALP place say 2007 ALP-TPP was 60% we get a Liberal increase of 9% from ex-ALP voters minus a 5% decrease (that’s 12% of 40%) from the Libs switching to Greens. That is a total 4% swing to the Libs.
But in a Liberal booth say 2007 ALP-TPP 40% we get the following. A 6% in Liberal vote from ex-ALP voters minus a 7% decrease as ex-Libs switch to Greens. That means a nett swing away from the Libs here.
I will post more details later.
Dr Good – 2575
At the risk of appearing naïve, I’d ask whether some previous ALP voters who have little interest in politics voted for DLP in Higgins simply because
a) it has the word ‘Labor’ in its title; and
b) there was no other ‘Labor’ candidate.
The DLP’s moment was so long ago, there is a whole generation of voters that do not know their history or why they preference Libs.
Why else would the DLP suddenly poll 3.8% primary vs 0.14% across victoria at the 2007 general election? I’m not saying its the whole story, but you could reasonably allocate some of the ALP vote leakage to the DLP appearance in Higgins
Hello Poll Bludgers, anyone interested in a good old fashioned Liberal hack’s conspiracy theories?
“Liberal MP Dennis Jensen claims Kevin Rudd dishonoring Australia’s war dead after news of a leaked draft text document at the Copenhagen Climate Change Summit. Jensen also claims various other conspiracies, incluing a world government.”
http://www.stopdennisjensen.com/2009/12/dennis-jensen-and-his-climate-change.html
Toothy has been holidaying on Xmas Island Education Camp for a bit of cross cultural fertilisation.
wow i just created a new greasemonkey script to get rid of another annoying blogger
ShowsOn
I hope you realise that they don’t understand facetious posts at Bolt’s. If you tell them that Copenhagen was organised by a shadow chamber of enviro-communists in conjunction with scientists who have been paid off by Russia with the ABC being the PR arm, they think you are one of them.
Zoomster@2553:
I well remember the time, 1987.
We were on our way around Oz, in a Toyota station wagon of uncertain vintage, and even less certain reliability, with my wife and I in the front, and three children in the back, and camping gear and such behind the back seat which would only fit if packed in a particular way, water, petrol and the tent on a roof rack. Took us eighty days to circumnavigate the continent. Dog bless long service leave.
The kids were Sarah, Ben and Anna, 3, 9 and 11.
My wife, a botanist, was determined that although they were taking three months off school, they would be learning along the way.
So she spent a lot of time, trying to teach the kids the scientific names of the plants which we were passing.
Comes the test.
“Now, Anna, what is that tree there?”
Came the answer:
“Eucalyptus pneumonia” was the deadpan reply.
Clever girl, my eldest, and not one to trifle with, even then, and certainly now.
My wife abandoned the botany lessons after that point, and we were all the better for it.
Psephos,
You are right about some Danes’ attitude to Germans. For my motherr’s generation (she was born in 1923) the German occupation in 1940 – 45 did not sit well. My grandfather kept a long, sharp knife in his music (oboe and clarinet) case. On the sporting field the people the Danes want to beat most are the Swedes: Denmark and Sweden fought many wars up to the end of the nineteenth century.
On Copenhagen, Wiki has;
Danish has three extra letters: æ, ø and å and natively does not have c, q, w, x and z. The main difficulty in prouncing Danish words is the frequent use of glottal stops.
By the way Danish Zealand = Sjælland
evan@2572:
Remember, DF is Trufy.
He’ll be out there in his tinny sending them back with his popgun, falling back as necessary to his Panzer, and blasting them out of the water.
But it will be somebody else’s fault, it always is with DF aka TTH.
Liberals oppose employment.
Unemployment will always be lower under Labor.
Lord D referring to the Morgan poll
To which Grog replied,
To quote would be comic and ovaltine specialist, Kenny Banyan from Seinfeld,
So why did you support passing the CPRS which is an ETS?
Yes that is EXACTLY the social experiment I am running. I am trying to be a perfect parody of a poster to Andrew Bolt’s blog, and then trying to see if any of them are smart enough to see that all my comments are designed to make fun of them.
It’s a new version of Poe’s law:
http://rationalwiki.com/wiki/Poe%27s_Law
Dario
nice story.
My grandparents were native plant experts long before native gardens were fashionable. When I started gardening, I would have long conversations with my grandmother (in her 80s) about what I should be planting.
She never used anything but the full biological names.
I remember once her saying,”What is the name of that tree? I’ll forget my own name next! I KNEW I had dementia…oh that’s right, it’s an cypressformis exocarpus.”
Well, something like that!!
Thanks Mr Squiggle
If my theory is a good match for the data — and I hope to convince Antony of that later in the next few days with a pretty snazzy graph showing a very close match between the actual votes and what my theory predicts — then it is interesting to try to explain the 15% of ex-ALP voters who voted Lib instead of Green.
I think that the mistaken DLP vote explanation might be worth investigating.
I also think that it might well be amongst the older catholic ALP voters that there would be a reluctance to vote Green given some of their policies.
I think that the grumpy-ALP-ETS supporter theory is the least plausible.
VP
My bro lives in sweden and I used to catch the malmo to kobnhavn ferry.
My fav city in sweden was gothenburg which very few nonswedes can pronounce.
I learnt the numbering system,ettahundra,femty octa etc and could passably ask for the (tea) and even say tak.
The finnish/russian hatred is perhaps deeper rooted than the swede/dane
I’m a realist. Big business and the big polluters will never accept a straight carbon tax so it will never happen. And I don’t want to get into a Republic debate and end up with nothing. But I do want everything do be done to minimise offsets (perhaps to only 10%) and loopholes.
There is some really interesting commentary about ETS vs carbon tax from both sides of the argument after the post. They’re so polite there.
http://bravenewclimate.com/2009/11/09/fee-and-dividend-better/#comments
Hello bludgers. Have others been impressed by Tony Abbott’s terrific performance today in demanding the production of the Treasury modelling of the ETS? Look, look, Tony, over there, for over a year, got the Treasury header on it.
He hasn’t been paying attention because he has no real idea of what’s happening to the planet.
I am glad that our Penn is starting to keep the message simple: “Put a price on pollution”.
This is a simple and effective counter to:
Abbott: “A great big new tax”
Rudd: “A price on pollution”
The Australian people will decide.
VP, don’t forget the Danish v Prussians (the Schleswig Wars, 1848/51, 64) which cost the Danes Schleswig & Holstein (to Prussia) and Saxe-Lauenburg (Austria). The first is seen as the beginning of Prussia’s insatiable march towards “Greater Germany” and the Second Reich (1871-1919).
Penny Wong on 7.30 report. After the anger and incoherence of the last few politicians I’ve seen do media interviews in the past few days, it’s nice to hear someone speak with authority WITHOUT HAVING TO SHOUT!!
And, HSO, another case where, when questioned about it, he said that that wasn’t what he’d said.
The media has been bending over backwards to be nice about Tony. But if he keeps insulting them by suggesting that they haven’t understood what he said, or keep shifting his position on every issue, they’re going to get a tad testy.
And they’ll be all the testier if they’ve been made to look foolish by spruiking him in the first place.
Gus, do i hate the Russky?
Well, it’s alright then, i got God on my side.
How do you tell when Bolts site has more people doing parody than posters airing their crazy theories? For that matter, how do you tell if the whole site isn’t one great parody? I have long suspected Bolt is simple supplying his market and you shouldn’t take the rubbish he writes too seriously, he isn’t that dumb, perhaps it goes deeper; perhaps Bolt is running a social experiment, theses out next June.
You can’t have God on your side, Finns, he’s on Abbott’s side.
Unless you’re on Abbott’s side too?
Gheez, “Snapper”, mate! Must be lousy being Oppo leader these days with no Good Old Godwin G feeding them everything frm Treasury, inc QT questions!
fredn
I have on several occasions advanced the theory that Andrew Bolt is a left wing comedian, doing a long running parody of right wing nutjobs.
Businesses, governments, economists are all over the place on what is the best thing to do. Businesses don’t universally support ETSs, nor do they universally support a straight carbon tax. Some economists on the left oppose carbon taxes, while some on the right oppose ETSs. It is wrong to say that everyone thinks carbon taxes are the way to go.
Zoom, mine is all loving God. Whereas Abbott’s is a punishing nasty piece shirt.
When he outs himself it’s going to be fun.
OzPol,
My recollection of Danish history is a little hazy but it is my impression that the Danish – German border was a little bit of a side issue: it seemed to go back and forth quite a lot and Danes, I seem to remember, feel quite at home in Schleswig – Holstein. The greater issue was always across the Sound (Øresund). The Norwegians, either through willingness or force majeure, were usually on the Danes’ side against the Swedes.
nasty piece shirt. = nasty piece of shirt. To do it a proper justice.
The Earth is going to keep warming, will he have the courage in a few years to eventually say that he was wrong?
He’s not starting out very well, zoomster. I still laugh when I think he’s put the estimable Joyce up against Tanner.
Are they latter day kamikaze pilots? If nothing else, they’re rubbish so far. As for frightening the Rudd government, pffftt, Rudd, Gillard, Swan and Tanner must be pissing themselves.
SO
Where did I say that? A carbon tax is clearly the minority opinion, esp with business and Government.
She was just so very impressive. Labor has such an embarrassment of talent in the current parliament compared to the Liberals.
Yes, Harry – a wonderful performance by Abbott just for PBers pleasure!! and Combet was so calm in his response.
Serves them right, Zoomster. It will teach them to do some research before putting him to air. On second thoughts , let him go and make a fool of himself.
Barnaby Joyce? Prefer Joyce Barnaby (aka Jane Wymark).
Talking about God on my side. Max Gillies’ Godzone looks sensational. It is coming to Sydney in Feb10. A must see.
Finns,
Max is still trying to find the real Kevin!
vp, Max is looking at the wRONg place. He should look for Kevin where the honeymooners go.
OPT, obviously, there’s a terrible hole where once was Godwin. However, I reckon Tony wasn’t paying attention cause he doesn’t take climate change seriously and so why would you bother to follow the economic modelling of the implications of climate change, both doing something about it vs. not doing something about it.
He hasn’t the motivation to do the work.
Well I’d say it is the 2nd most popular option. The minority position is the Liberal’s current policy – don’t put a price on carbon, just assume that the government can out guess the market by investing in the right technologies.
Vera – the Community Cabinet was good. Watched it while we had dinner. Kev put the Young Libs back in their box beautifully.
[2639 vp}
Midsomer Murders is a favourite of mine but until you pointed that out I had no idea!
Vera @ # 2563
“I missed Kev’s Community Cabinet on tuesday, for those interested there is a replay at 6pm.
Tonight: The Prime Minister’s Community Cabinet from Townsville 6.01pm AEDT”
I will have to get you to send me a “telegram” next time it come on Vera. I look this morning and there was no listing and I have only just read you post and of cause it is too #$@% late.
Ratsars – it will probably be on A-pac again on the weekend.
Actually the PM explained the ETS better than I’ve heard him before. Made 3 or 4 points – quite simple and easy for everyone there to grasp. He needs to keep on doing it.
Hear the one about the Shadow Cabinet’s new policy process?
Finns – I don’t think he was too impressed with Abbott’s mistake about the release of Treasury modelling either.
Oops. Shot that one off before it was ready.
The Shadow War Cabinet are visiting a nuclear hand grenade trial.
Im a bit slow Boerwar but I’ll bite – no, what about the SC’s new policy process?
BH / vera
Is there a guide to show what’s coming up over the next 48 hours or so on A-PAC?
Does this have a BOOM BOOM punch line?
It is consultative so the Shadow Minister for War is joining with the Shadow Minister for Resources and Energy and the Shadow Minister for Climate Action. The purpose of the consultation is for the Shadow Minister for War to demonstrate a new action idea of the Shadow General for Opposition. It is called a nuclear hand grenade.
BH, i was flabbergasted this arvo with Speers, Steve Lewis and David Penberty on Slynews Agenda. They were not very impressed with Abbott’s negative tactics, especially with what Barnyard had to say on Agenda, which was incoherent nothing.
Steve – I think it’s this
Abbott just gets worse.
He seems to read the wRONg opinions on PB and ignore all the corrections and qualifications and then spout them forth.
Just how stupid can you get. A political leader who just doesn’t think with his brain; he’s using his gut instead. And as we all know, a human has as many neurons in their gut as in their brain. Just ask Steve Colbert.
I think I should have left off the brackets!
http://www.a-pac.tv/
Finns I missed Agenda but you just made my night with that comment. I saw Speers on the News later and he seemed a bit put out about Abbott.
Then I saw Barnyard and Joe and realised that poor Joe is going to have one heck of a job keeping Barnyard in check. He’ll end up making Joe look silly. Joe will have the last laugh after the election I think.
Abbott obviously needs some help thinking things through.
Let’s see. The Shadow Minister for Finance really raises unreasonable expectations about competence and also about the Shadow Minister for Finance actually being a critical element of any Government-in-Waiting.
Therefore the Opposition needs to invent some alternative naming models. Here are some options to replace Shadow Minister for Finance.
1. The General in Charge of Shouting about Everything at a Retail Level of Importance.
2. Chief Bad Mouther.
3. Shadow Minister for Shouting ‘No’ all the time.
BH @ # 2648
Ratsars – it will probably be on A-pac again on the weekend.
Thanks BH.
I enjoy watching the CCCM and have tried to catch as may of them that I can. One gets a feeling for the issues that are raised, the reaction of the public that attends and how the Government is addressing the issue.
This will be good for the Liberals. Having Abbott leader at the 2010 election would make it more likely that they will win in 2013. They will have a lot of time to repudiate all his nonsense.
O.K. Boerwar, I’ll bite. Either there ain’t no new policy process, it’s the same as the last one, i.e., make it up as you go, or the new one, make it up as you go.
Am I right or am I right?
Bet the Pine Bark Beetles would go for it.
It is the silly season, isn’t it?
If Leigh wanted to promote this she should have said “Should Australians bonk more or less?”
I think the reason not many government ministers go on Lateline is that they are busy working, no?
Penny was great on 7:30. Pity about the satellite link: at the end, Kerry got a bit excited and didn’t allow for the delay.
Ratsars – the most interesting thing about watching these sessions is that you learn far more from them than you do from the MSM. The Govt. is actually doing a lot of good stuff but I never see it in the MSM.
The CC’s should be on the ABC as well as A-pac.
If Tony Abbott keeps not doing his homework, not checking his facts, disagreeing with himself, how long before Minchkin gives him the boot?
PM Agenda is being replayed now. Barnaby is a shocker.
What was Abbott thinking?
[2659 BH}
BH, That is the link to the A-PAC front page but I don't see a link to a guide for upcoming programs other that a list for the remainder of today.
I'm interested in knowing what's on tomorrow and the weekend.
Am I missing something obvious?
BH, the trouble with Barnyard is that Abbott has put a straight-jacket on him now as the S Min Fin.
You can see his frustration and torment when he was being interviewed by Speers. He knows he has to say the right thing and sound like the proper SMF. You can just tell on his face that he absolutely hates it and dying to get to say his usual mouth foaming stuff.
It’s kinda like “Farq it, I cant take this anymore” stuff from Barnyard.
confessions,
Abbott doesn’t think; he’s a motor mouth with a brain in reverse.
confessions, you’re assuming it was Abbott ‘thinking’. How about it being the genius Minchin ‘thinking’?
Steve K @ # 2653
“Is there a guide to show what’s coming up over the next 48 hours or so on A-PAC?”
There is a guide but it is not all the “regular’.
I checked this morning (maybe about 8 am and there was nothing there at all concerning up coming programmes. Vera must have checked later and she found a listing of programmes on today. So I guess one must be persistent each morning to find out what the scheduled programmes for today are.
The URL mentioned above is correct, however if lost or forgotten just put A PAC into Google and select for Australia. That will give you what you need to find it.
Steve. I just had a look at it and I note they’ve got tonight’s stuff up. They are very slow at putting programs up so you really just have to keep checking it.
Vera may have a better link. She’s terrific at that stuff.
Diogene
I agree, if the first 5% cost $120 million… and we have exhausted all the low hanging fruits, the next 5% might cost much more than $120 million
For example, farms and food production is very carbon intensive
A-PAC is a bit all over the place – sometimes what you’re watching isn’t what the info at the bottom of the screen says you’re watching (if you can follow that).
But it also means they’re very flexible and will put on the unexpected presser live or devote a whole morning to a ‘live’ issue.
I quite like not knowing what’s going to be on when I check the program!
Who is this man from the Australian with Steve Lewis? He likes Barnaby!
Agenda today feels like Farmer Wants A Wife.
I know us Aussie blokes are very good but this is ridiculous.
Nicole the Great White Shark was caught and tagged in South Africa, she then travelled 112 days all the way to Western Australia Ningaloo Reef to find her Super Aussie Mate.
And then swam back to South Africa. Eat your heart out, Tiger, grrrrrrrr.
confessions, that was David Penberty of the DailyTerror.
Tone as Generalissimo of Abbott’s Army has won many “accolades” so far in his political career:
1) “The Mad Monk” by Michelle Grattan
2) “People Skills” by Annabel Crabbe
3) “Gay Churchy Wanker” by his No 1 daughter
4) “The Weather Vane” by Tone himself as revealed by Malco
Any PB know if Matt Price or Paul Keating have granted Tone any other “accolade” ?
BH @ # 2666
“Ratsars – the most interesting thing about watching these sessions is that you learn far more from them than you do from the MSM. The Govt. is actually doing a lot of good stuff but I never see it in the MSM.
Correct BH. However, I have not purchased a newspaper for over 5 years and I am very selective about I read over the net. So maybe I am not in a position to judge or my natural bias will show J
“The CC’s should be on the ABC as well as A-pac.
Agreed
Ah, thanks for that.
V1Maxine – Keating probably will before long.
Socrates – you mentioned Outer Harbor earlier. My great, great, great grandmother arrived at OH in 1837 to join her husband. He was late getting to the ship so she walked 8 miles or so to Glenelg, carrying her luggage. Shows how tough the old colonials were.
They planted the first vineyards in SA and started a winery.
I think you can watch Obama arrive for the Nobel Peace prize here.
http://www.bigpondtv.com/newstv
Click on Live News
A helicopter just landed on the roof of the building.
Ratsars, BH & Steve K
This is the Community Cabinet page on one of Kev’s sites. They usually let you know a couple of weeks in advance the details of the upcoming CC.
Where it will be and the date. A-pac screens it live usually about 6pm
http://www.pm.gov.au/PM_Connect/Community_Cabinet
This is so exciting, and I have no idea what I’m watching!
A month or so ago, I had to bring myself up to speed on virtually every Federal issue out there, which meant intensive reading of the alp media releases among other things.
I remember thinking at the time about all the whinging that goes on about the media concentrating on the Opposition rather than scrutinising the government (with the imiplication that the govt is being given an easy ride), and that if anything, the obsession with the Opposition means we’re not hearing all the good things that the government is doing.
Thanks to those who have mentioned A-PAC. I have watched several of the community cabinet meetings live and a couple I missed I was able to catch on replay.
I’m keen to see a replay of the latest meeting so I’ll keep an eye out for it on A-PAC guide.
Obi is live on BBC
God even us conservatives didnt fawn over Bush like you do for Obama.
Glen
I still prefer Hillary
Norway PM, at a presser with Obi, just said it is very important to put a price on carbon.
Isn’t it good, Norwegian wood.
Sorry about the garden path thing on the Liberal Party Policy Development Process. Buggered it up, I did. Art imitating reality.
Be careful Glen, STFU is awaiting.
Some excellent Indigenous Short Films on ABC 1 right now. Bourke Boy – the current one is very, very taut.
It’s a shame Tanner and Barnyard aren’t in the same parliamentary chamber, I’d love to see Lindsay tearing him to bits!
Maybe we’ll get a debate or two before the election?
Bush’s fawnability factor was rather low.
Shouldn’t Greg Hunt be at Copenhagen? Or maybe he got an invite to the Sceptics Conference?
Oh, I dunno Boerwar, art will do that.
Why should he Evan14??? Copenhagen is a waste of time just as Kyoto was…
Nice to see some small pacific island nations pushing the big boys at Copenhagen to get serious. Of course it’s only a matter of life and death for them – nothing as serious as maintaining a comfortable lifestyle in the developed world.
That’s because Bush destroyed the planet by randomly invading countries.
Obama is trying to fix the joint up.
It’s you that needs to explain why Bush was so ‘fabulous’.
Zoomster – I reckon the MSM has an agenda not to let the Govt. look too good and, of course, the work they are doing is not controversial enough for the media darlings.
Melissa Clarke on Breakfast yesterday was actually salivating about Abbott being wnderful for journos. Phil Kastal…??? when discussing the papers this morning showed 2 photos. 1 of Abbot chatting to a couple of women (probably his staff) and then 1 of Kev taking his tie off. Kastal..?? comment was wtte that Abbott was creating heaps of interest with women but the PM was being ignored by people surrounding him. All said with seemingly great delight that the PM appeared to be on the outer.
By late today the comments about Abbott are a little less glowing. The journos are probably worried now that their new man is going down the gurgler and the boring nerd will stay at the top of the polls.
After Copenhagen the Govt. has to start really selling itself again.
It was worse with conservatives under Bush: nobody except critics asked serious questions about certain aspects of his national security and defence policies, or his reckless spending. Those who did were shouted down and labelled ‘with the terrorists’. At least Democrats are speaking out against some of Obama’s policies – where were the GOP during the Bush years?
I bet your hero David Cameron doesn’t think so!
You must admit, there wasn’t much substance there to fawn over, Glen!
Greg Hunt paid for himself to go to Indonesia for the climate talks there. He is one of the few in the Opposition who thoroughly understands cc and what might be done about it. He would have been a strong supporter of an ETS, if not exactly the one the Government came up with.
He will do a creditable job of coming up with an alternative package that will likely look credible in terms of delivering 5% at less cost, or similar cost, than the Government’s ETS would. McFarlane will help him. He will now that if the 5% needs to be scaled up to 20% there is no way that Abbott can deliver on no ETS, no carbon tax.
Hunt and Macfarlane form one of the few formidable policy pairs in the Opposition’s ranks. They might just decide to turf Abbott out before the election and would be close to having the numbers now. Their main problem is that Hockey and Turbull are both compromised. Youth will have to have its go. So they will probably wait until after the next election.
You are forgetting that INITIALLY the Liberals were going to ratify the Kyoto protocol. It was only in early 1998 that they back flipped and decided not to do so.
BH: The ABC have been the worst offenders! When I hear supposedly intelligent commentators like Adam Spencer, Richard Glover, Annabelle Crabb and Fran Kelly gushing about Abbott and his supposed ability to relate to real people(unlike that nerd Rudd), I run for the off switch!
I never said he was my hero evan14.
Copenhagen will do nothing for the environment and no consensus will be reached. Why? Because you cannot get hundreds of sovereign nations to do the same thing.
All Cophenhagen will do is create a lot of hot air.
You forgot the part about the 3000 people killed in a terrorist attack on U.S. soil while he was President, and the fact he ruined the U.S. economy.
This is nonsense. What about the 1989 Montreal Protocol to ban the production and use of CFCs?
What about maritime law, one of the oldest examples of international cooperation and legislation in existence.
What about all the international protocols that need to be worked on so that international telecommunications works between different countries?
What about the Universal Declaration of Human Rights?
What about the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty?
I could go on… but history shows that different countries can come to agreements if there is enough willpower on the part of world leaders.
Nice to see you back glen.
What is the UN ???
Makes it hard on poor old Shrek. He has to take on both Swan and Tanner!
Does anyone know who is the Labor Finance spokesperson in the Senate?
They should give the job to Campbell for a while. That should be a lot of fun!
ShowsOn I should clarify…getting all countries to do something which will harm their economies is unlikely to succeed. That is why Copenhagen will fail.
Why are conservatives always such pessimists, such cynics?
Michael Pascoe’s interesting observation on the expertise of the experts in looking into the future. Just as we have proved here at PB again and again, the MSM experts also have no clothes:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/a-beautiful-set-of-numbers–really-20091210-kldx.html
BH
They are talking out their arses
Kev ain’t alone being ignored in these Cairn’s photos
http://tools.cairns.com.au/photo_gallery/photo_gallery_popup.php?category_id=9415&offset=0
Banning CFCs harmed economies. All the chemicals used now in place of CFCs are more expensive. CFCs were used because they were much cheaper to produce.
And it is just wrong to say that economies will be harmed. The economies that jump first and get into green technologies will make billions by exporting those new technologies.
dovif
You are as hopeless as Abbott. Do you understand about how our energy requirements are going to increase? Do you understand that a 5% cut in emissions is the equivalent to about a 20% improvement in carbon intensity already.
It’s monosynaptic shallow thinking like Abbott’s that gives conservatives a bad name. There must be some clever ones somewhere based on the law of probability but we never see them. The US has a few of them; where are Australia’s?
Glen,
Come back in a week’s time when the real COP15 negotiations will take shape, just in time for Beethoven’s birthday. His ninth rules.
The problem with Abbott is simple, he doesn’t believe anything he is saying.
He doesn’t believe he should learn about the most cost effective ways to reduce carbon emissions, because deep down, he doesn’t actually think cutting carbon emissions is necessary.
Abbott is thinking that the whole issue of global warming will just blow over in a few years time, so it is just a waste of time to learn about the problem and consider the best way to solve it. He sees that as just wasting time.
PK: “If they take Tony Abbott, they are just going to go back downhill to wherever they’ve been,” he told ABC Radio.
“He’s the one most like Howard ideologically.
“He’s what I call a young fogey. Howard was the old fogey, he’s the young fogey.”
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22822530-953,00.html
Is this trolling on Bolt’s blog a little too obvious?
My WTFH?? moment today. A farmer on Midday Report whining; actually whining about rain. It rained! He’d decided to leave part of his crop unharvested (not much; only about 20%, I think … a good blogger would rerun the MR segment, but this one almost hurled a chair at the TV set first time round) and it rained! Only about 20mm, but that did the damage. His crop will be downgraded. This will cost him a not inconsiderate sum – like about $12,000, from memory. But the maths my head was doing weren’t condusive to anything positive.
“Why is this on the Midday Report?” I snarled at the TV. But this time the temp was 37.1, and I was actually feeling sorry for farmers around here, who missed out of that same rain completely and now have no summer crops. I wondered how they were feeling. Ingratitude, more strong than traitor’s arms perhaps.
And then, the dénouement – the high Oz$
As this was the Midday Report – more their ABC than most of the ABC – my evil conspiracy theory synapses fired up. Why was the audience being softened up?
Is Barnyard about to announce a new hands-in-tax-payers’-pocket scheme? Is this more of the Great Big Tax lie? Are we about to have a High Aussie Dollar Relief Scheme? Is Tony about to conference with the Almighty re not raining on grain crops if the GBT is diverted to Opus Dei?
Any ideas?
Evan – so do we.
Thanks Vera – yeah, I know but Trioli and Phil whatsisname were beside themselves with joy about the Abbott photo. They said re the photo of Kev that the woman behind him was so disinterested and was taking a photo of someone else. What a childish comment – her camera was probably already loaded with dozens of photos of Kev anyway.
Actually this week Joe O’Brien has been away and Michael B… has taken his place. What a refreshing bloke he is – fair and balanced in his comments with Triolio and leave O’Brien for dead when interviewing. Of course he’s got too much nous to replace O’Brien permanently on that show.
The conservative chattocracy make a big mistake calling Abbott a “conviction politician.” He’s the biggest opportunist in federal politics. He has instincts, not convictions, all of them thoroughly reactionary, but he’d sell out any of them tomorrow if he thought there was advantage in doing so. Mostly he’s a cheerful cynic, intellectually quick, but shallow.
OPT
Not sure about the politics of it.
Lots of broad acre farmers are on their knees after the drought. This year quite a few of them had harvestable wheat crops. Many of them lost the lot at the very last moment. I talked to some of them last week. For some of them it was the last straw. Goners.
Glen surely you are being facetious? There is significant evidence that not acting costs more economically let alone environmentally
OzPoll Tragic – 2598
I don’t know what happens in SE Qld. However, if you spend any time in the seat Of Marrickville (where it is a ALP vs Green contest), during an election campaign, you will become aware of the smear campaign conducted by Labor against the Greens. You wont find the smear written on paper, but you will see and hear it.
Do you have theory for the phenomen found by Antony Green and quantified – at least on an overall basis – by Dr Good ?
Forgot to say that the reason they lost the lot was because the rain knocked them flat.
Crikey today – and another
Eerily, a lot of commentary re abbott is similar to the reception howie got when first he graced our screens.
I would not underestimate his appeal to the bogan class.
As nate pointed out he is a mini me of howie.As such he has the same rat cunning.
In a way a sweating stick of gelignite would sum him up.
vp, Hockey was supposed to win, not Abbott. Wasnt the story that Minchin went up to Hockey after the vote and said something about throwing 10 more votes his way in the first round??
Gusface
I suspect that with Abbott you get the rat without the cunning.
Abbott as a ‘conviction politician’ is one of the greatest memes of 2009. I cringe every time Paul Kelly states it.
Gusface youre right, there’s definately a “whatever it takes” Howard streak to Abbott
Psephos
Abbott was a Rhodes scholar but he seems to be intellectually very lazy. I know a few people who met him when he was Health Minister and they said he was very down-to-Earth and quite cluey.
It looks to me like he doesn’t have the discipline to think anything through. Rudd is going to tear him apart.
Vera – just saw the photo (No. 3 in the group you linked). I can see that one woman is photographing Kev and the other one has her camera aimed slightly left to Mark Arbib I think. So ABC Breakfast used it to build Abbott up.
No doubt the Angry Ant celebrating his departure from 2UE and his imminent move to Victoria to transform 3MP from an Easy Listening Station into a Victorian version of 2GB – for those Perth bludgers old enough to remember – this sounds suspiciously like what happened to 6KY (now Mix 94.5) wich went from a Beautifujl Music Station to “Star Station” with a line up including the one time federal member for Stirling one Eoin Cameron – the format lasted 6 months and the station was relaunched as 6KY – Nice & Easy
yes Psephos, Abbott is so instinctual as to be almost pre-cultural, its as if he just crawled out of the political Rift Valley.
I cringe whenever Paul Kelly uses the word “folly”. He alternates between using it on Insiders or in The Australian.
Abbott is such a conviction politician that in his first press conference as leader he walked away from his position as a climate change denier.
Did the KY lube company buy it?
Abbott putting his foot in his mouth again, carrying on about how Rudd isn’t going to get unemployment down……. on the very day unemployment goes down!
Union bashing is so out of fashion too I’d have thought Tone
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/abbott-accused-of-second-costing-blunder-20091210-km5j.html
This morning Trioli attempted to perpetrate a few of her ratbag tricks on the 2001 Australian of the Year, biologist Gustav Nossal during a phone interview regarding Copenhagen conference. Within five minutes, this 78 year old made her look precisely like the lightweight gossip monger that she has become. Michael B had the good sense to stfu.
Can anyone remember a new leader being built up by the media as much as Abbott has been?? Is it that they know he will crash so are trying to minimise the damage?? Polls have consistently shown that despite his profile he is one of the least popular leadership contenders. What are the media on about??
Actually rather ironically, it was originally owned by the ALP (along with all other Australian Radio Stations which had a K as the middle letter of the callsign) – ie 2KY, 3KZ, 4KQ etc.
BH
ABC would try to spin it as a negative for Kev of course, but he is actually talking to a bloke in that picture as he’s taking his tie off.
Andrew,
Minchkin got it WronG. It won’t be long before he (tries) to put it rIGHt.
Abbott is just so bad that even the Main Stream Mice will desert him, between Christmas and New Year is my guess. Tone is a complete dunderhead as a “leader” of a party.
Steve Liebmann is taking over from Steve Price. Only for the summer holiday period though it seems, give them time to find a right wing nutter to slot into the job full time.
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2009/12/10/1260034330655.html
Night all
Nate the Great 2724
Thanks, I’ll add that one to my list>
5) Young Fogey by Paul Keating
I’m sure that PK will surpass himself!
Are any of the payTV channels running the copenhagen thing live?
(I dont have pay TV )
In sweden (and I presume other countries) it is being broadcast live
Nope, it is a permanent gig, though according to now out of print book Don’t Touch That Dial” by Wayne Mac, when Steve was working for them in the 70′s his hours were shortened during election time because he was considered a Left Wing Radical, though his copybook has been blotted because he was the front man for Howard’s Anti-Terrorism ads which promoted a certain Fridge Magnet.
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/first-aussie-hybrid-car-to-hit-market-in-february/story-e6frfku0-1225809195252
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26469145-5006301,00.html
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/pdfimages/tiserpoll-q1to4-091209.pdf
One thing I don’t get… if metro is 54/46 and country is 55/45, how does that wash out to 57/43?
Bad sampling?
No, he’ll be allowed to tie himself further in verbal knots over the summer, but come February he will utterly done over by Rudd and Gillard. He either lied in October when he said climate science was crap, or he lied in December when he said he believed in it. He won’t be able to get out of that box.
Haha Bob, all your trolling about Rann to no avail. *makes rude gesture*
Who?
I don’t troll. I don’t want the Libs in power. And are you that deluded that you think pollbludger is some sort of medium to speak to the masses and change their votes?
You really do have rocks in your head. Then again, you are a Labor staffer to Senator David Feeney.
And Adam, why would I post the good results if I was hoping for bad results?
Your logic is unexplainable.
Trolling is bad enough but
is senseless.
Try stfu
Oh dear, BBC is reporting that the Norwegians are not very happy with Obama because he is not spending 3 days in Norway in receiving and celebrating his Nobel Prize. The Norwegians brought this on themselves for pre-maturing giving the Prize to Obama.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8405486.stm
I don’t troll. I don’t want the Libs in power.]
The good thing about being a Labor hack, bob, is that I always know what my line is – the Labor line. Your problem is that you keep having to remember what your “Green” or “left” line of the day is supposed to be. You know you have to attack Labor at all times, but you get mixed up about whether to do it from the right or the left.
Because you’re a fool? (Just a wild guess there.)
ANZAC’S rule!
International Movie Data Base website has listed the top rated films of the decade. Of the top seven, five are ANZAC dominated. Numbers 2, 4, and 7 are the “Lord of the Rings” triology, #1 is the Heath Ledger masterpiece “The Dark Knight”, and #6 is “Memento” with Guy Pearce in the lead role.
http://www.imdb.com/features/poweroffilm/
Dario,
Your 1567 is gold but I’m just too lazy to implement it right now.
Welcome back Bob. Don’t upset the ruling clique while you are here, please.
Hear hear!!!
Musrum’s genius, not mine. I’m just a happy spruiker
Labor hackery knows no bounds
What? No films by Kar Wai Wong, Hsiao-hsien Hou or Abbas Kiarostami!
“We are happy to see that through you.. Martin Luther King’s dream has come true.”
Nice
You ain’t seen nothing yet.
SA poll thread up.
Thanks William!
Thank God Bob Carr is speaking out on those ridiculous population growth junkies like Brakcs, Rudd and Tanner.
this is the sort of leadership that is needed, challenging the assumptions that 35 mill is ‘just going to happen’ and doing it without triggering any Pauline Hanson type backlash
I hope he runs with this, I really do
The fact is, bob, and everyone here remembers it, that you spent days and days telling us that the Chantelois business was going to be the ruin of Mike Rann. Now you’ve been proved comprehensively WRONG (as usual), and no amount of whinging about Labor hackery can get you off the hook.
And courtesy of stfu – There is one post on the SA thread – and you can’t see it
Abbott is the cardboard cut-out of Australian politics – two dimensional, wafer thin, lacking substance, has a sheen until the first day in the open weather and will be carried aloft by the first strong gusts.
The problem is, you can’t quote one example. I at no stage said it would be the ruin of Mike Rann. I was very concerned at the unknown, I didn’t know how it would affect him. At no stage did I say Rann was stuffed. And you can’t quote me one time I did.
The difference between you and me is that I can read and post from a range of news outlets, I don’t stick to one particular party (but never vote Liberal), i’m far more an independent thinker you are – and it’s shown in the way that you refuse to read digest anything that you deem from an unworthy media outlet. A genuinely objective will not refuse to read something based on where it came from, they’ll take in all sources and weigh it up.
You sir are a Labor hack and always will be. You seem to like being one, and take pride in it, so good for you
OzPol Tragic @ # 2726
You are exceedingly hard on the farmer.
Farmers don’t “decided to leave part of their crop unharvested . Once a crop is ripe it is harvested as soon as possible for this is the best chance to get “high grade grain” which of cause attracts the best price. At the moment wheat is getting about $220 – $225 a metric tonne. For wheat that is affected by rain and which may be only good for stock food the price is greatly reduce and the price that can be obtained is most likely local. It is possible that income ffom the sale of wheat that is badly shot and sprung might not cover the cost of planting, harvesting and transport. The most logical reason that the crop was not harvested would be that he had not had time and not due to a lack of effort.
If this unharvested wheat was going to be next seasons seed then it is not only the cost lost on the sale but the farmer also has to go and purchase seed wheat which may have a higher price then what he got for that grain that was harvested.
Put yourself in his shoes.
How would you feel if your employer withheld 20% of your yearly income or if your business customers just decide to withhold 20 % of what they owed you just because of rain.
Unless this farmer has been very lucky he may have gone years without any income. He still has to pay all the cost of putting in a crop (perhaps over many years) as well as find the “ readies” for the cost of living and here was a chance to get his kids some Christmas presents.
I think that you whinge about his problems shows a lack of understand and really your whining is much more unacceptable then his. You have no reason to complain while most likely he has been pushing it uphill with a sharp stick for a number of years.
It is on the Midday Report so that people in the city may get some idea of how hard some of the people in the bush have been have been affected. This problem has been reflected in the suicide rate that shows –
In 2006, 1,799 Australians committed suicide while 1,638 Australians died in motor vehicle accidents. The Land newspaper (a NSW publication) has reported there are around 1,000 suicides a year in rural Australia, which means the majority of suicides are in the bush – that’s 20 deaths a week.
see http://www.abc.net.au/rural/content/2008/s2543219.htm
You may not agree with their politics but that is no reason to be uncaring.
The good thing about being a Labor hack, bob, is that I always know what my line is – the Labor line. Your problem is that you keep having to remember what your “Green” or “left” line of the day is supposed to be. You know you have to attack Labor at all times, but you get mixed up about whether to do it from the right or the left.
…because Green voters are allowed to have our own opinions?
though you hardly spout the Labor line beyond attacking the Greens. Adam, you’re so right you weren’t Jewish, I have little doubt you’d be in One Nation.
Two Words: Gerry Georgatas
Quote of the year
Indeed! All the power to a progressive independent.
Hi
(especially to Antony Green)
I have written up my theory on Higgins so you can see how beautifully it matches the reality. There is a lovely graph with a fantastic 92% correlation between my theory and reality.
It took a while to work out how to post such things on the internet but I did.
It is at
http://dr–good.blogspot.com/2009/12/blog-post.html
I redid the numbers more accurately and the end result is that I suggest that 10.6% of Liberal voters switched to Greens but this was counteracted somewhat by 18.1% of ALP voters not going with the Greens. (More than I thought before).
I would appreciate any comments.
sorry if this had already been posted but for (SNIP: See article 2 of comment moderation guidelines – The Management) sake Baranby can’t be serious…..the next few months is going to be excruciating for those of us who don’t want to be hectored, yelled at or scared….Abbott’s lot are just plain mad dogs.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/joyce-warns-of-us-armageddon-20091210-kmby.html
Dr Good – 2790
Thanks. I would be most interested to know when you have been able to do it
if there are differences in how likely someone was to turn up and cast a formal vote at the by-election according to their booth and 2007 vote.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/playing-into-the-hulks-hands/story-e6frgczf-1225809230270
Jeeesus wept, and this passes for journalism!
It started even before the sex allegations appeared. Even Mr Rann being assaulted was enough to start up the cries of “This could lead to the ALP’s defeat”.
Yes. This was an absolute piece of gutter journalism. If I want this kind of analysis I’d switch over to Sunrise.
The Weather Vane in full spin:
“TONY ABBOTT was digging himself out of his first hole as Opposition Leader last night after declaring boldly and often that the Government had failed to produce modelling which detailed the costs of its emissions trading scheme.
The Government, however, pointed to the public release in October last year of Treasury modelling and then set about branding Mr Abbott as erratic, reckless and unreliable.
Mr Abbott showed no humility. He dismissed the Treasury findings as ”implausible” and out of date and demanded fresh figures.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/abbott-gets-in-a-muddle-about-emissions-model-20091210-kmbh.html
Here is my contribution to the Tone’s accolades a la Nathan Rees:
Minchin’s Marionette.
Well, there’s going to more election-ad fodder from Barnably than the ALP will know what to do with. The image of him as Finance Minister is a truly frightening one.
Minchin’s Muppet?
Hi Musrum
STFU works well, can you do another script or advise how can edit script so can read only one poster, eg all others are excluded.
Mushy, can you edit the stfu script in Firefox and just add another Array to exclude more than one posters?
I’ll look at it over the weekend for Finn’s and castle’s suggestions.
The logical question would be to ask him why the Treasury findings are ‘implausible’ and why we should believe him over them. I suppose his philosophy is that if you’re in a hole you just keep digging and hope for the best.
Can you edit the script so that you can only read one poster’s opinions? A sort-of “Exclude all, except…”.
There is only one poster’s opinion here I have any regard for and I’d like to read only those posts.
The business community must be shaking with trepidation everytime that Barnyard opens his mouth as the SFM. the latest being his suggestion of power for the Govt to breakup the banks.
Barnyard is in the classic mold of that well known socialist Blackjack McEwen where as long as the Cockies are well look after by the Govt then everyone can go get stuffed.
What has Wong Kar Wai done in the last 10 years?
Penny Wong says that Australia’s position on emission cuts by 2020 depends on what the Copenhagen conference concludes. We will not be doing MORE or will not be doing LESS than the rest of the world.
THERE YOU GO! So what’s the position of the wacka-lacka-loopy-loon Greens? Just HOW do you propose to save the world on your own?
Just like the Liberal Party, living in Skyland and completely irrelevant when it comes to climate change.
Castle
I get it
It fits in with the “Communist-Vegan-World-Government with Krudd as Secretary-General” for life meme. Ken Henry and his department are in league with the government to bamboozle the downtrodden of the Right, so their opinions count for nothing. It is a known fact that all Reserve Bank cheques have an invisible pentagram as part of the watermark. Ever wondered what happened to all those fractions of cents that get rounded off every transaction? Straight to a vault in Zurich where they are being stockpiled for der tag. While I’m at it, the myth that increasing employment is “good for the economy” was completely dismissed today on 702 ABC where the presenter and Mark Simkin managed to discuss the issue of the low unemployment without any reference to the Stimulus Package as the reason, listing only the downside – debt, interest rate rises – as so eloquently expressed by Joe Hockey yesterday afternoon. Joe Hockey’s opinion was rightly given not only balance, but precedence over those of the government, every single economist (even Stephen Long), world opinion and those who have stayed employed while the workforces of other countries are in the toilet. In a world of opinion, one man’s opinion is worth as much as (or in Joe’s case, more then) anyone else’s, even if it is wrong. But, apart from these occasional rays of light, the Fight will long and hard. Thank God Tony Abbott is a man whose word can be relied upon.
And that’s why the Treasury figures are implausible.
BB, wouldnt it be easier just to get that poster email you his/her posts. i am sure he/she will be very obliging.
So Rudd is taking 114 people to Copenhagen? I can’t help thinking of a certain trip to Qumran.
BB
Remember he was ALMOST a man of the cloth.
Divine guidance trumps mere mortal musings.
No worries BB, glad to be of service
[No worries BB, glad to be of service
Grog, did you have sex with that man?
No. I have gotten used to the satisfaction of knowing that posters are in the Phantom Zone trying to get out. I kinda like the idea of many more banished to “eternal living bloggers’ death”. It’s not the same thing when you just receive an email. You gotta know the Unfortunate Ones are suffering.
Of course, if they are on the Other Side, how am I ever going to know? In Stfu’s Dimension-X, no-one can hear their screams.
On the mindset of CC denialists, I had an interesting discussion with Xanthippe. She has had some dealings with members of Australian skeptics who include a number of denialists (eg Barry Williams). This tends to confirm what we suspectd. It is interesting that:
- they are amost all old white males (60+)
- they all love Plimer
- a lot of them are paranoid reds-under-the-bed right wingers; anti-immigration etc
- Like Nick Minchin, they are also skeptics on a lot of other proven science (eg no cancer link to smoking)
The point is, there is no point dealing with these people; they are not rational. Better to parody them with some of their sillier remarks. They will never vote Labor or Greens anyway; they are more likley the Pauline Hansen demographic.
A great Friday: Steve Price’s last day on Sydney Radio, Abbott has stuffed up already and blown a $200 billlion hole in their costings, Barnyard is already a colossal disaster, and Bob was proved wrong again(see SA Poll thread)!
All good!
I thought I read yesterday that Steve Price had decided to stay on?
Nah, Price announced he was leaving on Wednesday, because they weren’t willing to pay him what he thought he deserved($800,000 per annum).
Rumour is he’s going back to Melbourne, to work on the Melbourne version of 2GB(Singleton to buy an existing AM station down there and turn it into another extension of “Liberal Radio”).
Not just Nick Minchin. Mr Abbott himself is on the record denying the effects of passive smoking on children locked in cars with their parents. This is a former Health Minister. I can’t trust people who can’t understand that policy makers have an obligation to act when presented with overwhelming scientific consensus, even if they have personal doubt.
Ripper.
Andrew’s first dog whistle in his new role: Immigration levels should be reduced significantly.
He was so keen to get in amongst the dog turds that he forgot that he was neither the Immigration Minister nor the Shadow Immigration Minister.
This mob are making the Light Brigade chaps look brilliant.
Regarding unemployment the more I look at the figures the better they look. The increase was in full time jobs, without a major change in participation ratio. I also said some months ago that we were almost through the worst and unemployment would not get much worse than 6%. Anyone who attacks the governments strategy and teh stimulus will need ot explain which part of high employment they like. Even the ABC’s pessemistic economist has said as much:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/10/2767915.htm
I can’t see Lindsay Tanner worrying too much having to deal with Barnaby Joyce. I doubt a bush accountant has spent a lot of time on anything other than tax dodges.
Don’t you see, Ltep? All these notions about links between smoking and cancer, between CO2 pollution and climate change, silly notions about the separation of Church and State – they’re all FADS. The approach is: don’t change your beliefs, wait for the evidence that affirms your beliefs. And if the evidence contradicts your beliefs, besmirch the evidence! Refuse to budge! {irony}
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/12/07/newspoll-56-44-12/comment-page-57/#comment-376328
Isn’t Scott Morrison meant to be their spokesman for “Demonising Refugees”?
It’s an appropriate appointment, because Cronulla is full of white redneck racists.
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2009/4450/
Barry Willliams is an unreconstructed Labor hater. I used to see a lot of him at one time and have had many frustrating “discussions” with him on the general subject of politics.
Climate Change has become, unfortunately, a proxy for the politics of Left v. Right. Both sides of the equation are often as bad as each other. I include myself in this, as I have not read the science, only the summaries and highlights, and then only with a fairly pre-conceived notion in mind that if the likes of Howard, Minchin, Bolt and Plimer (and now Barry Williams) are deniers then Global Warming must be a reality.
Deniers are right when they say AGW is semi-religious in the Left. What they don’t admit is that Denial is equally irrational in the minds of the Right. I’m afraid our skins will have to start turning into crackling before some of the Deniers will ever give an inch in this regard. Or, alternatively, Sydney Harbour will have to freeze over before Believers begin admitting the Science might be wrong.
Until then, I’m fairly relazed about believing in AGW. If the likes of Howard, Minchin, Bolt and Plimer (and now Barry Williams) are deniers then Global Warming must be a reality… this has beena pretty good indication of the stupidity of an idea in the past.
BB
“Deniers are right when they say AGW is semi-religious in the Left. ”
I don’t know about this… I think you are being a bit generous to the opinions of Bolt etc here. I certainly don’t see physics as ‘semi-religious’.
That sounds a lot like what Peter F. Hamilton called the Beyond in his Night’s Dawn trilogy, a dimension where the dead are trapped in torment for eternity (supposed to be anyway, but they found a path back).
Personally I was quite skeptical about AGW till the Volkhov ice core data came out in 1994. I thought that science was quite convincing.
In fairness to Minchin, he said there wasn’t a proven link between passive smoking and cancer, which is untrue of course.
Big Tobacco hates the passive smoking-cancer link because it meant they could no longer say that people harmed by their product chose to smoke it. The passive smoking findings did a lot more to curb smoking than the cig-cancer link. Innocent victims with cancer are a bad look.
Copenhagen is more a blame game
China will blame the US and US will blame China, I am pretty certain nothing will get done
If China wants to do something, they would not have build about 20 coal power plant in the last 10 years.
US are in so much debt they cannot do much…. the whole imfrastructure of a city like LA will have to be re-done
Most likely scenario, there is not going to be an agreement
BB
The trouble with that reasoning, even if it’s worked before, is that those people would be deniers regardless of the science, so it doesn’t say anything for or against AGW.
About half an hour ago on ABC NewsRadio there was the report of a Morgan Poll with the figures 53/47, and the statement that this was “unchanged since the previous poll”, which would suggest it was a phone poll.
ShowsOn, yes that was released yesterday I believe.
No, they ARE deniers regardless of the science! They are simply disregarding all the scientific evidence, and are instead saying that because we don’t know everything about the climate therefore we must know nothing.
Plimer can’t even answer questions taken from his own book!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2009/aug/05/climate-change-scepticism
What!? And it didn’t get a new thread? Bill Bowe must be stuck in a jacuzzi somewhere.
dovif 2832
Whatever we may have disagreed about in the past I fear you are right on this one as far as the USA is concerned. The Chinese though, are probably doing more at a practical level to reduce emissions than most western nations. I think the most likely outcome is a “token” agreement that will be too weak to fix the problem. Happy to be wrong.
There is quite often claptrap on both sides of the debate.
IMHO the current area where AGW proponents are very often wrong, scientifically, is in ascribing current flooding events on low-lying islands to climate change. All the existing evidence is that that earth’s sea levels are rising very, very slowly.
While the additional flooding might be an indirect result of more energy trapped in the system – more hurricanes, more rainfall or more winds – they are NOT the result of significantly increased sea levels.
It was also very, very unfortunate that AGW proponents chose polar bears as the flagship species for biodiversity loss. The timing was the problem. Because of hunting bans, polar bear numbers were well up. They appeared to be thriving on decliningArctic sea ice.
Finally, the current drought, it is argued is the same as other droughts we have suffered in the past. Well, no. It might be similar in terms of lack of rainfall and of length. It is dissimilar in terms of having generally been warmer. The result has been a significantly decrease in run-off. This is the icing on the cake in terms of killing of parts of Australia’s irrigation industry.
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2009/4450/
Sample size: 493. On prmary votes they are about equal.
ratsars
Good post on rural despair. Plenty of it about.
Further to 2838 if there is no Copenhagen agreement, I expect the leaders won’t even show up next week. That is why I think there will be a “token” agreement. Too many people need something to announce.
I realise my comments about an ETS have been negative lately. If there is an ETS with a stick to ensure compliance as well as carrotts then I’d be happy. But I fear that won’t happen. An ETS will work fine within a country with a committed government. The problem is for governments and countries that aren’t willing.
ShowsOn:
That’s what I said. You just changed would be to are, but would be is correct since I’m taking into account how they’d react to hypothetically different science.
Stop being so emotional about this.
The Liberal’s worst nightmare is true (well, other than the nightmare featuring Abbott becoming leader).
A productivity commission report comparing the performance of private and public hospitals has found that they have the same efficiency, and that both are below world’s best practice:
http://www.pc.gov.au/projects/study/hospitals/report
Keep in mind that the productivity commission is perhaps the most economically right wing government department. So if they could write a report saying that public hospitals are woefully inefficient compared with private hospitals they would surely do it.
Yes, because they ARE.
Socrates said:
In defence of the Australian Skeptics, and the skeptic movement in general, the crazy element, like Barry Williams, are not truly representative of the membership as a whole. None of the serious people in the organisation, or others like it, will waste time on climate change denial or science denial in general. The movement today is very much about challenging pseudoscience and quackery – not maintaining the sort of libertarian world view which is associated with skeptics of old.
As for Plimer… Well, Plimer is really venerate by some Australian skeptics because he stood up and challenged the creationists. It didn’t work out well for him, but he had to be applauded for trying. That said, I don’t think many skeptics who are also involved in science would go so far as to claim that Plimer is a particularly good scientist.
The skeptical “hierarchy” does have a problem of being dominated by old white males, but there is some hope for the future with groups like Young Australian Skeptics, and prominent (and relatively young) female skeptics like Rebecca Watson and Rachael Dunlop.
Far from challenging quality medical research like the link between smoking and lung cancer, the skeptical movement is at the forefront of challenging non-scientific medicine – such as the truly evil anti-vaccination campaigners, homeopathy, naturopathy and all sorts of other nonsense.
Skeptics come from all sorts of political points of view – the extreme left, such as P Z Myers, and the libertarian right (Brian Dunning). The core of it all is the desire to engage people in critical thinking.
A poll with a sample size of 493, why bother?
Socrate
I agree, if there is an agreement it will be weak and not binding
Most government will be too scared to do anything …. if we are to do something, it will need to include decrease in world population, decrease in standard of living and it will have to hurt the poor.
Unless anyone really thinks that taxing the richest 10% and fully reimbursing everyone else will led to 50% cut in pollution
This is just stupid. There is no way to decrease the world’s population.
“it will need to include decrease in world population”
Righto, you first, off you go then
ShowsOn, if you believe the Citizen’s Electoral Council, and I quote, the CPRS just shows:
Oh, my, dog. Is LaRouche still in prison?
You know the deniers are desperate when they bag Rudd for travelling to the CC summit because of the GHGs he will be emitting. FMD.
Rudd was on Mitchell’s show this morning. He did a very good job. He got into Joyce and explained the ETS in simple terms. Even Mitchell had to give him kudos for giving a clearer message on the ETS.
If you want to hear the interview go here.
http://www.3aw.com.au/
Yeah, even though all of the carbon produced by the conference is being offset by the Danish government buying new kilns for people in Bangladesh:
http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/50386/title/Countering_Copenhagen%E2%80%99s_Carbon_Footprint_
ABC still trying to build up Barnaby I see. he probably doesn’t even know what manifesto means!
Probably thinks it’s something to do with the Gay Mardi Gras
GB, I presume this is from that 3AW interview:
The public education program will begin in earnest in late January is my bet – possibly beginning with a major speech on Australia Day.
I hope the caterers had sufficient bananas and peanuts to go around.
Well when I read:
I just thought it was the ABC being funny. Surely no one would SERIOUSLY propose that Joyce could have an economic manifesto, let alone have the capacity to outline one?
Jaw-dropping hypocrisy. Most of the most powerful figures in the Opposition don’t even believe in climate change!
As Dario says, Janet Albrechtsen and Co. were only put on the ABC Board to sing karaoke before meetings.
Skynews reporting that big business is worried that unemployment has tanked and now there will be a shortage of labour, the govt stimulus worked too well, jobs growth too fast and interest rates will rise.
I bet if unemployment had risen the same ones would be bitching about having had to put off staff and their business losing money.
If the Libs were the govt there would be celebrating in the streets and praise for what a good job they’d done.
Wangkers!
Hmmm… manifesto… that sounds like something a Commie would do!!!
I do indeed
vera, Shortage of skilled labour and the Libs are calling for a cut in immigration
They haven’t got a clue.
Um, wasn’t that the problem before the GFC? Of course they’ll still blame Rudd for it
How many immigrants came to Australia when Howard was PM?
How many immigrants came to Australia when Andrews was in the role?
How many boat people came to Australia when Howard was PM also when Andrews was in the role?
How many illegal immigrants were there when Howard was PM also when Andrews was in the role?
What would be the population growth for the past 10 years without immigration?
The deniers talk about CC as if it is a matter of belief or conjecture. In answer to the question “Do you think CC is real?”, they respond in the same way as they would answer the question “Do you think God exists?” – that is, as if it were a matter of personal belief or opinion. But unlike the existence of God, the matter of whether climate change is occurring is something that can be verified by data and that can be the subject of testable hypotheses.
The correct question is not whether people believe in climate change, but whether the observable, measurable and testable data show the climate is changing. Since the evidence is certainly widely available, the deniers should be required to state why – in the face of evidence to the contrary – they think the climate is not changing. What is it about the data they think is wrong? And if they acknowledge – as Barnaby Joyce does – that the data do show the climate changing, they should be asked what they propose to do about it.
It is not enough for them to say, as Abbott does, the climate is not changing, but then claim to have a policy on emissions abatement anyway. The deniers are effectively saying they are going to impose regulations and give out subsidies even though they think they are unnecessary and in conflict with their own ‘beliefs’. This is the deep-seated contradiction in the dicta of the deniers.
If the deniers cannot show the data are wrong, then they have to concede the climate is changing. And if they concede the climate is changing, they should be asked what is
causing the change. They can say they do not ‘believe’ that human activity is causing the change. But, once again, this is not a relevant statement. It is one that belongs in theology.
The climate system is capable of being described and understood in empirical terms. The workings of the climate system is not a matter of belief. It is a matter of physics, biology and chemistry. Anyone – like Tony Abbott – who chooses not to inquire into the physics, biology and chemistry of the climate system – is really choosing to place their private ‘belief’ over objectively described ‘reality’. It is the intellectual equivalent of believing in magic.
We have all seen a lot of half-baked ideas circulated by politicians over the years. But it is not very often that the leaders of major parties base their so-called policies on the same logical footing as voodoo, sorcery and astrology.
It was a good interview by Rudd, GB. Clear, and not putting up with any idiocy.
I don’t know how he keeps it up. It must be like being teacher to the biggest, lowest-grade, worst-behaved school class in the world.
The current government cut the immigration intake by 15,000 in March.
Between 80,000 and 100,000 between 1996 and 2003, and then a rapid escalation to 180,000 by 2007. See here:
http://www.immi.gov.au/media/fact-sheets/15population.htm
Andrews only became minister for immigration in January 2007 after Vanstone retired. In 2007 the immigration intake was about 180,000.
From memory about 10,500 for the entire government, when Andrews was in the role a couple of hundred.
If all immigration was shut off, I doubt there would be population growth, because the baby boomers will start to die faster than new borns.
Steve K, the Libs have no idea but the media (such as it is
) lets them get away with any whackaloon statement or blatant lie without calling them to task or asking for a “please explain”.
So Abbott and Barnaby are allowed to mouth off and say things that if said by Labor would be ridiculed on the front pages of the newspapers.
I agree, the nonchalance with which the escaping of a recession here and a depression world wide is staggering.
The Govt, and Ken Henry especially, needs a very big vote of thanks from all those people whose livelihoods were saved.
I think that’s what we are seeing in the consistent 56% TPP.
So now that’s passed, the whinge will be of rising interest rates, coming off a historically low base.
People will just take this in their stride, how stupid do they think the public are?
Stephen D 2846
I agree and my apology – I did not mean to imply criticism of Australian Skeptics as a whole. I have been to one of their conferences and it was very good – especially when it attacked dodgy alternative medicine etc. It is just unfortunate that Barry Williams seems to have a lot of time on his hands and is very prominent in such discussions. I think the skeptics shoudl be careful to point out that Barryd doesn’t speak on thier behalf, which I suspect is the impression Barry likes to give when speaking.
I too had sympathy for Plimer over the whole Lying for God episode. But I think he is doing his reputation a lot of harm since, and has simply become a contrarian. I don’t know how his thinking changed. Perhaps after being attacked so unfairly by creationists he assumes all attacks are unfair, and so never questions his own views.
ShowsON/ltep 2851/52
It woudl be amusing for someone to quote those views and ask Barnaby Joyce in the Senate what he thinks of the Citizens Electoral Council? An awkward question.
“Obama defends war in peace prize speech” – what a great headline
Thanks SO.
Passive smoking, Worchoices, GW denial… why is it that Minchin has positions that are most harmful to people?
Is there a belief in the Liberal Party that it is better to trash peoples lives to keep or increase the level of money flowing through to big business?
TP
That about sums up about 90% of their thinking.
This was the best part of the speech:
So he had the record year for immigration numbers. He best be careful with his dog whistling.
Thus substantial cuts to immigration may mean a slide in living standards as Govt needs to raise more tax from a shrinking workforce to look after an increasing number of elderly.
This is precisely why I am happy for the conservatives to be led by a denialist: the intellectual bankruptcy of their position is being exposed. Climate change is no longer a debate about science, it’s a political and economic problem that requires international collaboration. By continuing to deny there’s a problem, the Liberals are just reinforcing that they lack the capacity to be part of an international solution, ie they are taking the far more radical isolationist position which ultimately will harm Australia’s interests.
John Hewson made the point this morning that the Liberals are fast becoming irrelevent in the climate change debate. If Copenhagen delivers tangible agreement what position will the coalition take then?
The next time the Mad Monk is interviewed by the ABC they should ask him to state his position on public broadcasting: its legitimacy or otherwise in his ideological view, what he would do with regards funding and independence, if he would introduce advertising, and/or privatisation.
Steve Price has left Sydney Radio!
WOOHOO, one less Liberal hack on the air!
Given the sharp decline and the (expected) gradual return to normal levels, what are the chances that new metric du jour will be the number of interest rate rises?
Confessions:
Link please?
By saying there were running a tough boarder regime, it seems that many people accepted an almost doubling of the immigration intake.
“Their ABC” treating Barnyard as a credible commentator on finance: I give up!
Cuppa: was on Sky News AM Agenda. I think you can podcast the program off their website.
TP
That is the right-wing authoritarian mindset writ large: their beliefs overrule others rights. That is why some of them changed so seamlessly from being youthful marxists to old far-right wingers. They never cared about the philosophy; the common thread is their authoritarian nature.
The LP site has expired.
Thank heavens for that!
Thanks Confessions, I will check it out.
I’m getting sick of people like Greg Hunt pretending that gas power stations are a cure to climate change.
Evan they have a report on Hewson’s comments at SMH
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/libs-should-provide-substance-hewson-20091211-kn5v.html
Oops that last post was for Cuppa.
How fast do new borns die?
Hmm, is he serious?
ABC Midday’s “newsreader” led into the report on arrival of the lastest asylums seekers with this
“It looks like it will soon be time to roll out the tents……”
She should be on Barcellona Tonight!
Kersebleptes@2868:
Maybe, but speaking as a former chalkie, his pay and perks are a damn sight better!
Gary
With the state of the Libs if he speaks nice about them he might be invited back to lead them.
Hewson might like his chances of a “fightback”
Thanks Vera.
That SMH article is a bit of a misrepresentation of what Hewson actually said.
He said (paraphrasing) the frontbench could be effective if the only goal was to niggle away at the government by constantly attacking them. BUT he thought the frontbench lacked substance and the attack stuff only works for a short time before people start asking “well, what would you do differently?” He was also highly critical of the Liberal party’s position on climate change.
Rudd’s interview on “Talking Liberal” 3AW covered the AS issue. Rudd handled it very well indeed I thought. He basically said, that’s life, get over it.
http://www.3aw.com.au/
Yeah overnight, Obama is now the darling of the US looney Rights.
Yes, he can but he cannot.
Finns,
That was my first reaction when I saw the news clip this morning.
But then, I know that no matter how much Obama acts in ways that The Right advocates, he’s still going to get hammered 24/7 on FoxNews.
http://www.usmagazine.com/celebritynews/news/thirteenth-woman-linked-to-tiger-woods-1970241
Lets see, he has to play and finish his normal Majors of 72 holes. Tiger, you sexy thang, you are the real Tiger, grrrrrrrrrrrrr.
BTW: It’s time Crikey pays its toll on time. Too much 502 Bad Gateway lately.
Time for some amigo stirring
Even Sarah has now become an Obama fan!
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/791bab5e-e5f5-11de-b5d7-00144feab49a.html
Finns I was getting locked out of the bad gates too. Us amigos haven’t been stfued have we? No one will hear us sreeeeammmm!!!
dovif way back at 2832
Yes. And a goodly portion of the Australian infrastructure too, which has been built on the premise of overly cheap carbon (not taking into account the externality of the pollution).
The huge period of time to change infrastructure is a key reason to start the carbon price adjustment as soon as possible. As someone else here noted the other day, in the alternative, the infrastructure cost of moving even one major coastal city is stupendous
GB 2902
That was a good listen… Thanks!
I’m not so sure.
I used to be very active in the Skeptics, but eventually left altogether because of the level of AGW denialism, among other things. I got sick of having utterly futile arguments. It was clear that a large number were ‘skeptics’ only because they hated hippies and greenies; they were therefore fine pointing out what was wrong with crystals or homeopathy or water divining, but couldn’t extend the same skepticism to any lunacy coming from the right of the political spectrum.
There are a few exceptions that I know of, but if the majority of the membership don’t share these views, they’re certainly not brave enough to say so.
I also disagree that it would be ‘wasting time’ to deal with science denial. IMO this should be one of the central concerns of a skeptic group. Denialism is a form of pseudoscience, and one which is very dangerous and pernicious. If the Aus Skeptics want to fade into irrelevance by spending all their time laughing at water dowsers, then great, but it’s a rather odd order of priorities to say that it would be wasting time to tackle climate change denialism instead!
Vera, i feel your pain. just like i am hearing Obama’s sreeeeeeeammmm!!! now:
The trouble is many people in the World think that the US is a Great Satan. And I like to see Obama spells out which ones are good war and which are bad.
The Shadow Finance Minister is trying to talk down the credit risk rating of Australian states and while simultaneously trying to increase the sovereign risk rating for foreign investment in the Australian economy.
Talk about laugh!
Could you imagine Barnaby sitting down at a G20 Finance Ministers meeting?
Scene: Darkened room. [Numerous sounds of shots, ricochets, IEDs and grenades detonating and shrapnel whizzing through the air. All interspersed with calls of, ‘Yeehah!’ and ‘Take That!’, and the dreadful cries of the wounded and the dying.
Scene: Darkened room when light switched on. Dazed Coalition survivors look around, urgently reloading their weapons and grabbing more handgrenades.
Scene: Outside the room. Rudd to Gillard, ‘Did you hear something strange?’
Gillard, ‘Yes, but I could not understand what it was.’
Scene: Inside the room.
Abbott, ‘Is everyone ready?’
All, ‘YEEESSS!’
Abbott, switching off lights, ‘FIRE!’
vera
lol
vera,
Yes, of course I could see Barnaby sitting down at the table.
But I could also see the other nineteen ministers getting up and leaving at the same time!
Boerwar
I hear those ricocheting bullets from hear LOL (keeping my head down!)
The other G20 ministers would wonder where Barnaby was from, they wouldn’t understand the language.
Vera, yes, I can!!!!!
Barnyard to the Chinese FM (foaming mouth, ala Sir Les): “Hey Chinky eye, what about some chop suey, chop suey after the meeting tonight”. or
To the Indonesian FM: “Mohammed, what about a holiday at Christmas Island, all expenses paid”.
Kersebleptes
The Chinese bloke would get an earfull about keeping his dirty yellow paws offa our resourses.
Abbott and Joyce, are basically reserve grade players who have now been asked to step up to first grade, and both have been found wanting.
It’s one thing when they could hide behind Howard and Costello, now they have to stand up for themselves.
You never get a second chnace to make a first impression.
Sure, a lot of people aren’t paying attention, but the little that is getting through, just reinforces the perception that these guys are light weights.
They have done themselves no good, and probably some damage, in just a few short days.
Finns
Sir Lesley Joyce sorta has a ring to it come tho think of it.
You nutcase
boerwar, an absolute classic
Vera, what chow did you have for your Bday?
Would Barnaby remember which Chinese-born Australian businessperson is an innocent victim of totalitarianism, and which one is a dangerous spy?
He sounds like a big girls blouse
If a future Finance Minister Joyce attended a G20 Finance Ministers meeting we might finally get a meeting communique worth reading.
Vera, spot the difference:
http://images.brisbanetimes.com.au/2009/10/30/824538/barnaby_joyce_420-420×0.jpg
http://www.famemagazine.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/les-patterson.jpg
Finns
We went to a local pub, hubby had steak I had some fancy salad thingo The drinks went down well though 
Boring chow and not very good
Why can’t those “irrelevant” Greens pay attention to the PB resident hacks and stop winning booths in the Bradfield bielection.
Greens smash the Liberals
http://north-shore-times.whereilive.com.au/news/story/the-girl-guides-hall-where-greens-smashed-the-libs/
Finns
Hard spotting anything except the distraction in the background of the second picture
Vera, that was the Tiger Special (Prawn that is, and that’s the chow you should have had for your Bday, Woodfire BBQ Giant Tiger Prawns in tangy Yakitori sauce)
Give Barnaby a new tie, a bit of hair mousse (and a friend, of course)…
Well done Marg, you got some rich people on the North Shore to vote for you, in the absence of a Labor candidate. That’s very nice. Did you notice that in all the middle and lower income booths, the Liberals improved their vote, because Labor voters refused to support your extreme policies?
marg
that’s fine, just limit your ambitions to winning single booths in each electorate, I won’t argue with that.
Leader of the Opposition, ‘Did you mean to upset the Chinese?’
Shadow Minister for Finance, ‘Who cares?’
Leader of the Opposition, ‘They do, apparently, and so do the Australian businesses that trade with China. They have had to spend a fair bit of time trying to calm down their business partners. They have also let it be known that we can forget campaign contributions while you keep shooting off your mouth.’
Shadow Minister for Finance, ‘What a boring bunch of farts they are then.’
Leader of the Opposition, ‘Barnett has complained as well. He has had a bugger of a time trying to persuade Moodie’s not to downrate his credit rating, and that they should take no notice of the Shadow Minister for Finance.’
Shadow Minister for Finance, ‘What a boring fart he is as well. Anyway, what do you think we should do next?’
Leader of the Opposition, ‘Well I am going to complain that they have not released the Treasury modelling for the ETS. That should give the enemy a fright. Have you got anything up your sleeve?’
Shadow Minister for Finance, ‘Nah, but Andrews is going over the top next with some stuff on immigration numbers.’
Leader of the Opposition, ‘That should give the enemy a fright.’
Antony Green’s has a bit more to say on the by-elections,
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2009/12/bradfield-and-higgins-another-note-on-the-booths.html
With apologies to Rudyard Kipling :
It will never benefit old redneck barnaby to hustle the asian brown
For while redneck riles, the asian smiles and he weareth old redneck down
And at the end of the fight is a tombstone white, bearing the name of the late deceased
And an epitaph drear, a fool lies here who tried to hustle the east
Marg, the Anglo St booth, North Chatswood, is just down the road from the Lane Cove National Park. In my daily walk, i see the tree huggers everyday performing their daily act.
Finns
Yummo, I’ll have that next year and send you a taste
Well, this blog will liven up considerably if the Greens win the bop in the Senate after the next election.
Getting up to the 3000th post mark again, will we have a Morgan face to face to amuse us later?
The success of The Greens really bothers the usual suspects—-good.
If me commenting on your post makes you think you’re a bother, marg, you’re right.
If it makes you think the Greens are, you’re wrong.
Boerwar and vera
If we stop trading with the chinese, think how much less pollution they will emit
you better let Mrs Wong know
The greens were successful? Where
I seems to remember articles of them talking themself up for seats? So they were successful?
Why?
Most people here expect that the greens will likely have BOP then.
It still doesn’t mean the greens will get everything they want. In fact it may well turn out to be a curse for them. Having to accept compromise and take responsibility if they block stuff willy nilly.
Polls must have just about finished for the year. This thread will probably get to 100,000 posts by next February. (Unless William has some summer repeats lined up for us.)
As far as I’ve heard the Greens have never claimed they will win any lower house seats. That talk is always supporters or other commentators. Then this is turned around to blast the Greens when they, unsurprisingly, fail to win any.
I don’t think she is a ‘Mrs’.
Tell that to Hsien Harper and Tony Serve
http://tonyserve.files.wordpress.com/2009/11/hsien-tony-interview-17-nov-edited.mp3
BTW, I still have the raw interview, but the link is on my laptop.
What the by-elections proved, Marg, was that even in upper-class seats like Bradfield and Higgins, fewer people voted Green than voted Labor or Green in 2007. In other words, the Greens failed to hold the Labor+Green vote, so they are less well placed to take votes from the Liberals than Labor is. And that will be even more true in middle and lower income seats than in wealthy ones. These by-elections exposed the Greens’ pretensions to be a serious lower-house party. The Greens are an upper-income, inner-city ghetto party, and will remain one.
2950
The Greens get enough votes to get upper house seats in much of Australia and have chances and an actual seat lower houses in inner-city areas.
Kieran Gilbert on “Agenda” did a fantastic impression of a Liberal MP when questioning Bowen. Boy, he did his best for Barnaby.
Keep dreaming the dream Tom. Just don’t expect to wake up and find it’s become reality. The Greens will not win a lower house seat in any state, territory or federal election in your lifetime and I’m assuming you are a very young man.
Spin it how ever you like Adam
The facts are:-
Labor——-chickened out
Liberal——went backwards 4%
The Greens –more than doubled thier vote to 26%
marg, refer 2953
That’s a very feeble answer, Marg. Back to Greenies kinder for you I think.
I don’t know that I’d go quite that far, Steve
Why bother fighting with the greens when we have barnyard and people skills to fight with??
They are only able to win By-elections where the ALP are having an occasional implosion, ie Fremantle & Cunningham, which usually revert to the ALP in a General Election.
I see Marg needs a corporate account with a certain Glass repair firm
Dear Mr. President, you have just lost another battle, your country is no longer the Greatest especially over something your country bowed to and worshiped.
Wow! Larvatus Prodeus really IS gone!
The Finnigans:
I suspect if you look at the value, rather than the number of the total automobile sales the US still wins comfortably.
Also, since when did the US worship China?
Just checked, it’s there
http://larvatusprodeo.net/
That’s no challenge.
Listen to Adam he knows where the real challenge for the ALP is!!
JM@2961 – Very strange, it was gone from my computer at home (a Mac) but no problem at work (PC).
If a sitting Labor (or possibly sitting Liberal or sitting independent) candidate was exposed as a complete fraud in the middle of an election campaign (some really nasty stuff that can’t be brushed off) then a Green candidate MIGHT get up. But all things being reasonably equal then I’ll stick with my original comment. Green policies are simply too extreme to win over mainstream Australia. They are a one trick pony and Labor is threatening to knock them off that beast hence the NO vote in the senate.
Big deal, cars are so 20th century.
Let’s see if Bolt’s minions publish my latest trolling effort:
It is?
http://larvatusprodeo.net/
If thisOzPol Tragic
Posted December 11, 2009 at 4:01 pm | Permalink
Can’t see this anywhere but Morgan’s site;
Morgan poll ALP 53% maintain lead over L-NP 47%
“A special telephone Morgan Poll, conducted over the last six nights (December 4-9, 2009) shows the ALP (53%, unchanged since December 2/3, 2009) maintaining its two-party preferred lead over the L-NP (47%, unchanged), but slightly increasing its primary vote (42%, up 1%) at the expense of the L-NP (41.5%, down 1.5%).”
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2009/4450/ has been posted here, I’ve missed it (also posted on Possum)
Marg, the Greens doubled their vote in the absence of a Labor candidate. And even then, they couldn’t capture the entire Labor vote. It’s an indication of nothing.
That’s true, but there are some seats which are not really part of mainstream Australia, like Balmain. These are the upper income inner city areas where the Greens do best, and I expect they will be able to pick off one or two of these seats eventually.
I can access it – Firefox 3.5.5 Windows 7 Professional.
Re LP – I’m still getting “This domain name expired on Dec 09 2009 01:39PM “
2959
Cunningham had several times the very low surprise factor of Fremantle and it is certainly not a certainty to go back to the ALP next sate election. There is also a good chance of the Greens picking up Balmain in 2011 (they would have in 2007 if the Libs had directed preferences) and not a bad chance in Marrickville. The Greens also have real chances in Melbourne (state), Richmond and Brunswick in 2010 (the Melbourne (state) margin was only about 2% in 2006).
Tried with Firefox on my Mac, domain name expired. Odd!
See my post above. Are those who can’t access LP using a Mac? Sounds strange I know.
And I did with IE8 64 Bit – works fine – might pay to clear your cache.
We know the Greens are good but to “capture the entire Labor vote” is an indication of spin.
frank
Nope still no LP
It seems that http://www.larvatusprodeo.net/ has expired but http://larvatusprodeo.net/ hasn’t.
It seems that http://www.larvatusprodeo.net/ has expired but http://larvatusprodeo.net/ hasn’t.
When I click on the former, it redirects to the latter link – so it seems some users are having issues with the redirection.
Meanwhile the WA Libs are upset with Barnyard’s comments re Chinese Investment.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/11/2769253.htm
I’m ok with both.
It’s not spin at all, it’s the basic fact about these by-elections, as Antony Green (a non-party observer) has also pointed out. Have a look at his analysis if you don’t want to believe us. The Greens did well in the wealthy booths, holding the 2007 Labor vote and taking some votes from the Liberals. But in the lower-income booths (which are far more representative of “mainstream Australia” than Toorak or Pymble), the Greens could not hold the 2007 Labor vote, let alone improve on it. Something like a third of Labor voters, given a choice between Liberal and Green, voted Liberal, or else DLP with preferences to Liberal, or else informal. Those are just facts, not spin.
For the Lateline junkies:
Nope. cleared cache, removed the LP cookies, domain expired. . .
Spin it how ever you like Adam
The facts are:-
Labor——-chickened out
Liberal——went backwards 4%
The Greens –more than doubled thier vote to 26%
At kindie i lerned to tell the truth
same here
also ran a ping
nothing
Okay, left a message on Mark Bahnisch’s Facebook wall.
2985
It is hardly news that two different parties have voting bases that have minorities that won`t vote for the other party in their favoured parties absence.
Line up now to collect mega-bucks on this wager.
The Greens have already won lower house seats in the lifetime of anyone over the age of 8 years.
But Antony owns the Greens, that’s why they are named after him.
Ok, just made a test post here:
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/12/05/saturday-salon-219/#comment-843556
But have only lasted one Term
Peter Young, you could say that what was meant was a general election and not a by-election.
Someone should also add the precursor “under any state, territory or federal election in which the house is not elected on a proportional representational basis”.
2995
So far.
Let`s see what happens next WA election.
2996
Go to exclude the HAT and the ACTLA because they have Greens already (and have had for a long time already).
2990
Thanks Frank
Re LP” Like Frank C: Cleared cache, cleared all cookies. Still getting Larvatusprodeo.net which looks more like a hosting site “Liberal Blogs? Conservative blogs?” Gawd! Doesn’t sound like the real LP to me!. Can’t find any trace of the usual blog!
My details: Mac Leopard 10.5.8. Updated a few days ago (?Java, I think)
Also filtered bob 1234
Am also getting a lot of BAD messages on Crikey, esp today. I also, just before started typing this, found I was logged out. No, I didn’t do it. More to the point, the site won’t let me – never has – so I usually have to quit Firefox to log out.
Also didn’t split 2970 first line as it appears. Didn’t type “OzPollTragic” at all! Dinkum!
This wouldn’t be Bob’s Revenge, would it?
Tho I have been having troubke
Psephos – 2985
We are still waiting on the mathematicians/statisticians to provide the numbers for the difference between the Greens retention rates of Labor votes in ‘wealthier’ and ‘working’ areas. From Dr Good’s work the retention rate overall in Higgins was 82%. As I understand it, he proposes to calculate the retention rates on a booth by booth basis when he has the time to do so. Until the figures are available it is a bit early to make wild statements about the extent of the difference.
Frank Calabrese #2994
Ok, just made a test post here:
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/12/05/saturday-salon-219/#comment-843556
I did. No change on post 3000 situation.
FRom David Irving:
so it seems that depending on the ISP, the domain has been renewed, but the changes haven’t filtered through (I’m on Bigpond)
There are no mega bucks at stake here as I don’t gamble – even on a sure thing. I still assert that the Gs are a one trick pony and now that CC is a mainstream issue it will benefit a switched on mainstream party to be all over the issue. The Libs are ripping each other apart but in the years to come CC will be a core policy. It is already a core policy for Labor.
2992
Oops – I made a mistake.
That post should have read:
Anyone over the age of 1 year may collect (Freemantle)
Anyone over the age of 8 years are entitled to collect double (Freemantle and Cunningham).
Damn, if the Greens keep winning seats at like this some very young kids will be able to retire very early.
Steve K – 3004
Yeah I was just off on a flight of fancy when I said mega bucks were involved.
Abbott has just reigned in Barnyard, saying cabinet solidarity started 10am this morning and everyone must watch what they are saying from now on.
Barnyard will not be able to control and contain himself. He wont last long in the Shadow Cabinet now that Abbott has closeted him in the cabinet.
More trouble for Barnyard. Oh boy, everyone is gunning at him now:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/11/2769253.htm?section=justin
You sure were. As I said I don’t gamble – just a belief that gambling is a mug’s game.
Even if the Gs were to win a seat at a general election (not likely now that a mainstream party has adopted CC as a high profile core policy) they would be a remote voice in a large chamber. The chances of winning a seat in a hung parliament are extremely remote and unless the parliament is hung the the Gs would again be irrelevant.
The Gs chance for relevance passed them by last week
.
Twitter message from Phil @LP:
That’s like trying to secure a mad dog in a soggy cardboard box.
SteveK
The more the Labor supporters shriek that the Greens are irrelevant, the more relevant they become. The Higgins and Bradfield by-elections gave the Greens tremendous media coverage, and will assist in instilling a belief that they are a genuine alternative. It won’t happen overnight, but it will happen.
Correct – and it won’t happen soon.
Steve K
Define ‘soon’
Where will that belief be instilled? In their own supporters? That amounts to sfa at the end of the day. The Gs need to win over Liberal and Labor supporters and so long as Labor dominate the Gs in the CC debate then the Gs are irrelevant.
See 3015
And it doesn’t help when St Bob is seen sitting with the CC deniers and Whackaloons in the Senate
http://www.adam-carr.net/cprsvote.jpg
Astrobleme@3012:
You are right that they got coverage, and Mungo’s claim that they would take one of the seats was a “sit up and take notice” moment, but in the event they didn’t make the grade.
However I for one used to put Greens as my second preference, (FWIW!) but now they will go last. On this site I have come across too many Green posters who have given the brand a bad name.
And when I looked more closely at the stance Bob Brown has taken with respect to the legislation, no way will I give them anything in the senate, as I used to.
Riiiiight, ‘Cause nothing says “relevant” more than passing ineffective legislation that is contrary to your own policy and was the product of negotiations between the two major parties.
The Greens will be relevant after the next election when they hold the BOP and the ALP have to come to them to get their legilsation passed.
Well, firstly I’d dispute that – didn’t hear anything on the msm from either of the Greens candidates, didn’t read anything about them in the papers or hear them on the radio. Perhaps I just missed all the blanket coverage.
Secondly, it didn’t do much for them, did it? The suggestion seems to be that they didn’t perform as well as they expected, let alone anyone else. Which – if they did get the incredibly high media profile you suggest – implies that the more people heard about them, the less likely they were to vote for them.
As someone who runs campaigns in unwinnable seats on the smell of an oily rag and regularly achieves results way above any of the relevant averages, then higher media coverage, an open field, and the loss of the local member SHOULD have been a lay down misere – I would have expected a quite significant swing given the same circumstances.
[And it doesn’t help when St Bob is seen sitting with the CC deniers and Whackaloons in the Senate
http://www.adam-carr.net/cprsvote.jpg
Hilarious caption Adam, you are such a card.
BTW, don’t forget it was your dodgy preference deals that put Fielding there.
Hadn’t seen THAT photo nor heard about Adam’s caption. Powerful image and text.
luke
That’s assuming the Greens are willing to compromise. If they’re not, it will still be easier to deal with the Libs.
It’s also quite possible that the true holders of the bop after the next election will be disaffected Liberal senators, who will be ‘buyable’ to cross the floor on certain issues. If the moderates are sidelined within their own party, this may become a quite feasible option for Labor.
Don, Steve K, Frank
Sorry you feel so negative towards the Greens.
If you cannot see how being in a one on one contest with the Libs gives them more credibility and helps to instill belief that they are a credible alternative then I am sorry for you. Pretty obviously it will raise their profile and make them appear to be credible to the general public. This is jus part of a general move to the Greens that we have seen over many years. I know you will claim that the Greens will never govern and blah blah blah, but in all honesty it doesn’t particularly matter. Given the BOP in the Senate is enough to make a difference.
Don
This is a strange way to decide your vote… Most Greens voters aren’t that different to Labor voters.
Frank
Obvisouly you have a very low opinion of the intelligence of Australian voters. Pretty obviously they are capable of understanding the Greens policy. Remember 24% supported Labor’s CPRS and 17% supported the Greens CPRS.
don – 3018
Good luck with voting below the line on the Senate ballot paper, instead of in the group square box.
Don
When Frank Calabrese says things like
‘get back to you mutual jerk-off session’ Or however he puts it, does that make you less likely to vote Labor?
Nice one from Professor Garnaut just now on PM. He doesn’t think the Chinese will be too worried about the opinions of “fringe players” in Australian politics like Barnarby Joyce on the subject of foreign investment.
(Said in that very naice semi-plummy voice of his).
I hope so. I think I may find ALP slipping even further to the right (as if that was possible) even more enjoyable than the Greens being in BOP.
Good luck with this strategy!
You are right Don, that if you are putting the ALP ahead of the Greens it is probably not worth much putting the Greens second, it is as good as last.
Nice to see that your political principles are that “flexible” that are prepared to preference One Nation and the CDP above the Greens because someone said some harsh words to you.
Boo hoo, dry your tears.
Astro
They’ve had this before. They helped destroy Keating with it. That’s who his ‘unrepresentative swill’ comment was directed at.
Their refusal to compromise meant that Keating couldn’t get his legislation through and helped elect the Howard government.
The Greens also had bop in Tasmania over many years, which worked so well that there’s been a concerted effort over the last decade or so to make sure it never happens again.
So yes, I’d welcome a Greens bop – we would see a drop in Greens Senate numbers afterwards, just as we did after they screwed Keating.
Do you all realise how desperately boring these Greens v. Labor flame wars are?
I can assure all you Greens I too will never place the Greens 2nd on my Ballot paper again. They had an opportunity to have an ETS in place when the 2 Liberal Senators crossed the floor. Have a look at Copenhagen, Rudd could have promised a 15% cut (not 5%)in emissions but all he can do now is promise to try because the Australian Greens were too blind to the Politics of getting something in place.
Zoomster
What is this? Revisionism? Suddenly the Greens (who are apparently irrlevant) destroyed Keating?
Astro – as usual, you’re taking me out of context. The word was ‘helped’. I don’t give them ALL the credit.
But certainly their obstructionist attitude in the Senate – skillfully manipulated by the Libs – helped tarnish Keating’s government.
So be very proud.
Update re LP:
Sorry, BB – we had a nice little thread meandering on here, then Astro and luke turned up.
Will be good.
Astrobleme@3031:
Frank is a special case!
And I am not talking about primary school “nyah! nyah! So’s your mother!” comments such as Frank comes out with now and again. Every party has those sort of supporters, as do the Greens. Marg comes to mind.
What gets to me is that I have seen no Greens posters here who have been able to explain the position of the Greens with respect to the recent legislation in terms which make sense.
That is, 100% of nothing is better than 0% of something worthwhile, a starting point, is a position I find difficult to understand. Anyone who has been married will know that a successful relationship needs good will and the willingness to compromise on both sides.
Labor and Liberal were willing to compromise to find a mutually acceptable position. The Greens refused to do anything remotely like that.
The fact that right wing wackaloons from the Liberals torpedoed the Wong/MacFarlane agreement has nothing to do with it, if Turnbull had survived we would have an agreement in law by now.
I have great affection for the Greens historically – I walked into Lake Pedder before it was flooded, and I am very grateful for the Green’s position and success with the Gordon below Franklin scheme, and for Bob Brown’s hard work on that.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hear,_hear
Don
I have explained it many times, as have others. I would suggest you either missed the posts or ignored them (as so many claim to do automatically).
Last time.
The Greens are not obligated to pass legislation they never agreed with, they were never consulted on, and always said they would reject.
This legislation is the bare minimum that will happen, why should the Greens pass what will happen anyway when they can keep asking for more in the hope that eventually the Govt has to negotiate with them.
Why would they make it easy to pass bad legislation?
Friday night it’s a good excuse for a party game so we have decided to have a sip of chardonay every time some one on PB says
1 “the greens are irrelevent”
2 “the greens will never……”
3 “the greens must (do what Labor hack says)”
Let the games begin….
How powerful is the imagery of the senate vote? Usually imagery is very powerful, but that photo doesn’t really hit the spot.
In NSW I would suggest knowledge of NSW Labor deals with The Shooters Party and Fred Nile (a well known god-botherer and anti-sodomite) in the Upper House, has been part of the reason for NSW Labor’s fall from grace.
Of course, when ex-Premier Rees indicated he would not countenance such deals with
‘the devils’, NSW Labor factional war-lords promptly moved to remove him from the Premiership. The troops obediently voted in Keneally as new Premier.
Mark Riley on 7 news: “Barnaby on L plates.”
Astro@3047:
Because legislation with a raft of faults which does some good is better than none at all.
The Greens’ proposal would not have been accepted by the Australian public, and in my opinion it would have been detrimental to Australia.
The version presented by Labor was the best that could have been accepted, the version poor Wong and MacFarlane hammered out was very much second best, but it was a start.
Full marks to them both, I am very impressed, MacFarlane in particular. You expect (though you don’t always get it!) integrity in Labor politicians, but to see it displayed in spades in the Liberals is heartening indeed.
Your explanation does not hold water.
Firefox, Seamonkey, Crome, Opera, IE & Netscape – no Lavartus Prodeo on http://larvatusprodeo.net/ or http://www.larvatusprodeo.net/
From the look on both men’s faces on the news, Barnyard had his cojones handed to him by ‘The Young Fogey’ this afternoon.
I was quite enjoying Banyard’s ramble du jour
Also not found using mini Opera on my mobile.
From the snippet I heard of Joyce on the radio he wasn’t happy and begrudgingly decided to comply.
So Don, you do understand the Greens policy, you just don’t agree with it. In that case, don’t vote for them then, vote for the party that best represents your political persuasion.
However, your suggestion that as a result of the behaviour of greens supporters on PB, you had decided to go from putting the Greens second to placing them last does not hold water.
Don
We will get legislation, no worries about that. It’s more a question of what sort will we get. There was no point in the Greens supporting the last bill, because that will eventually come to fruition if the ALP has a DD or the Libs buckle and say yes (again). It was a sensible decision for them to not pass the legislation.
Well by that recent Essential Poll, 24% supported Labors position and 17% supported the Greens position. So the acceptance level is pretty high (higher than the Greens vote).
Why? You continued to explain why you thought the ALP version was good, but never actually addressed anything I said.
Astrobleme@3024,
Sorry I actually agree with zoomster@3020 that the Green candidate did not receive nearly as much media coverage as the liberal candidates (now MPs). I also cannot imagine anyone but the most ardent Green supporters view the party as an “alternative” given the one sided nature of the results in both by-elections. If the result were closer maybe your statement would have carried more weight. Does it instill confidence? Well, I am glad it does for you. Sure, the Green took on Liberal one-on-one, but it says more about Labor than about the Green. I think you will agree that HAD Labor fielded someone it would have been Green, not Liberal, who stood to lose votes to these candidates. As to the claim about the general trend of more and more people voting Green. Sure, maybe this is the case. However, it is not because of something the Green has done right, it is largely because 1. the Green is the only OTHER party that remotely resembles a proper party and 2. The coalition is unelectable yet some people don’t want to hand it to Labor.
I know you will not agree, but the Green is really an one-trick pony with an oversimplistic view of the world, a lot of grandstanding but very little policy that can be viewed as practical. We laugh at the “extremist” Barnaby Joyce, yet some of the Green’s policy is no less, if not more extreme.
If you thought the Libs and their Cheer Squad’s “Bad Tax” mantra was bad now – the fear campaign would’ve been magbnified 1,000 fold if the Green’s model got up.
I can’t get LP on Firefox – what has happened?
Robot
The Greens got more than they normally do, which is none, so even the small amount that they did is like gold.
Well, thank you for such a well-thought out response. I don’t agree with you, no, and think that you really have no idea about Green policies.
Green v ALP flame war… stfu
I guess LP will be happy, they can gauge that we do visit them.
Frank, you are not seriously suggesting that Green’s policy ought be guided by the views of the Lunatics in the Liberal party and their MSM nutjob allies are you?
luke@3060:
I guess that’s true to some extent, I can see there is a hole in my logic.
Maybe I should have said that the behaviour of the greens here made me look critically at my uncritical acceptance of the position of the Greens on a number of issues, the Green posts here were a wake up call for me. Your interests are not served by some of your adherents, believe me.
But on this site the behaviour of most Green posters, or at least the sum total, the average tenor of Greens posts, does not inspire confidence in the brand.
If your party attracts such wingnuts, people who seem to be out of touch with reality to my eyes, then you have to wonder about the party as a whole, which can be heavily influenced by its supporters, as we have seen recently with the Liberals when they have been looking after their hard right constituents.
Hod to edit scrip in Firefox?
Hod = How
When I visit LP I get message ‘click here to renew it’. Should I do that with WindowsXP?
Don, it is true that the Greens are more left wing than the ALP.
That is a badge I wear with honour.
It is called Political reality – something the Greens and their cheer squad don’t believe in.
I use firefox and have no problems accessing LP. My settings are set to clear EVERYTHING when I close the browser, so maybe clearing cookies, cache, browsing history, active logons etc might do the trick?
Astrobleme,
When it has to be pointed out time and time again to Greens posters here, that the political stance of the Greens in the Senate contradicts what they say stand for in regard to reducing GG’s (because there is only one economically viable way of doing so with either an ETS of Carbon Taxes), out comes personal attacks in defence of the Greens Party stance and a whole new heap of repetitive posts that have been rejected by Labor and even Lib posters as being irrelevant to “genuine” and economically feasible, green-house gas abatement all over again and again!
The responses “might” seem to you to be ridiculous, but it is apparent that you and many of your fellows have minds so closed on the position put forward by Brown & Milne, that you can’t see the inherent futility of that stance and the political irrelevance that stance leads to!
Frank
So what you are saying is that it was tactically better for Labor to side with the Libs for fear of political attack? Well yes, we’d have to be in agreement in that.
Doesn’t do much for climate change or reduce our emissions though does it?
Astrobleme
The paragraph you quoted was not a response to anything. It is my personal observation of the party you support, a party that seems to think that a government has only one department.
No matter. Let’s agree to disagree.
I have used half a dozen browsers with cache cleared… no LP.
Accessing from Darwin through tpg.
That would be L for lunatic?
scorpio@3064:
Thanks scorpio, that’s the thought I was trudging towards.
The problem is, that they will become relevant when they get the BOP, and that prospect is beginning to scare me when I look at the stance of the Greens in the CC debate.
Scorpio
They didn’t contradict themselves. They said they wouldn’t support it and they didn’t.
They do support the idea of a CPRS.
What personal attacks?
I’ve been told LP are having propogation issues with the domain.
From an earlier Tweet I pasted:
Don
So now you understand why they didn’t support the initial CPRS. That would get passed with or without their support. They never supported it, so why would they support something that never wanted to, had no input in, and don’t agree with?
Robot
yes, this is your personal observation. I know that this is wrong, however, being a member of the Greens.
Don,
Fielding shares the BOP at the moment and has wielded this power in an extremely detrimental way to all Australians (as an aside, he also voted against the ETS).
He is only there because the ALP preferenced him directly after the ALP ahead of all others on their Senate ticket in Victoria in 2004.
Yet, you somehow don’t feel any concerns about voting for the ALP?
One small problem with your whackaloon theory – in a NORMAL election Fielding wouldn’t have gotten up, but thanks to Latham, the ALP Sentae vote went DOWN, and as a result we got Fielding.
Oh and the Greens can’t claim the moral high ground when they voted against one vote one value in the WA Upper House which resulted in the Nationals getting the balance of power
Because it would have been a good start to generate public support for even stronger targets? Now that’d be a good idea.
The Greens insist on owning the ETS and will continue to oppose Labor’s efforts. The Green’s strategy will amount to six tenths of nothing when the proposed ETS is passed at a joint sitting next year.
TP, i have just managed to edit the script in Firebox and got rid of another annoying Green poster, the female variety. Happy to share it but no warranty given. But it works!!!!!
So you can just keep on “eliminating” annoying posters.
I try to amuse.
I never forget it for a minute. It was an excellent deal, and would have delivered Labor three Senate seats had not Mark Latham driven down our primary vote to the point where Fielding was able to leapfrog us by getting Democrat preferences. Our preferences then elected him ahead of the Green. Since I presume Senator Risstrom, had he been elected, would have voted with the other Greens against the CPRS just as Fielding did, I don’t see that the outcome made much difference. Fielding is certainly annoying, but no more so than Senator Extremely-Young, who after 18 months in the Senate still hasn’t worked out how to move a motion.
Please Share
Finns
Is there an anti-cetacean script?
Diog, watch it. i can make you disappear.
Ahh, the same person who wanted to turn the Senate Chamber into her own private creche
Frank, the “how to” is on the way. i hope Mushy is OK with this.
Oh, okay, your leader was crap. That makes it all okay then, don’t worry about it.
Aaah, Frank, anti-women and now anti-family.
Astrobleme,
Don’t you read your fellow Greens supporters posts?
Having trouble remembering the many snide and sarcastic comments made to others besides myself?
Forgot the 400 IQ one have we? Selective amnesia won’t work here!
It is so easy to do a search of PB and pull them up just to remind you if you like!
But maybe that wouldn’t be appropriate to your agenda of denial, would it?
No, she was EXTREMELY selfish, she could’ve easily excused herself from the chamber to say her goodbyes.
Nice try at VERBALLING.
Snide and sarcastic?
Glass jaw anyone, better get a corporate account with Windscreens OBrien, Pot meet kettle etc etc etc
Finns
Me too please with the stfu
Aww Diddums, doesn’t like being given a taste of his own medicine.
Party discipline to date following elevation of Leader of the Opposition, Weeks 1/2:
1. Backbencher Turnbull throws a bucket of ordure on the team. *what goes round comes round*
2. Dr Jensen makes public his displeasure with not being elevated following his public role in throwing ordure at the previous leader. *there is no honour amongst thieves*
2. Sharman Stone makes public a certain peevishness over being demoted. Probably felt that she had at least matched Ruddock in refugee dog whistling and should have been adulated like Ruddock was by the party faithful. *dishonourable victim of the extreme Right is Might*
3. Abbott, having promised to consult on policy, almost immediately fails to do so when he makes statements about the ETS. *first failed promise*
4. Abbott, having failed to notice that the Government had already released Treasury modelling on the ETS, demands that they release it. *a whiff of road kill in the air*
5. Andrews, frothing at the mouth, remembering how good the Haneef thing had really felt in his heart starts blabbering about reduced immigration numbers. *reverse Rip Van Winkle with inner right wing lurch and twist*.
6. Joyce opines that states might default on their loans and the Chinese should bugger off with their filthy money. *the best retail politician in Australia in full flight*
So, no one has offered odds yet on whose head is going to explode first, Abbott’s or Joyce’s? It’s only taken 3 days for Abbott to have to hose down Barnaby’s economic broadsides. When asked whether or not he might be having second thoughts about Barnaby as Shadow Finance tonight on PM, you could just about hear the gritting of his teeth and the mental gears as he attempted to spin it to the positive.
Very entertaining.
It also occurs to me that Rudd and Gillard’s cool response to all this chest thumping and machismo is just going to infuriate Abbott and Joyce even more. After all, they want a fight, a bit of biffo. For Joyce to have Bowen saying the equivalent of “you silly person, do please stfu, you’re making a fool of yourself” must be galling to say the least. For which read, Tanner couldn’t even be bothered getting out of bed to respond, and on top of it to be reined in by Abbott. Whoo, I reckon my bets on Barnaby’s head going first.
He’s actually dumb, isn’t he? Politically dumb, specifically, and what does that say about Abbott’s political smarts? This is the way to preserve their base?
Garnaut points out that “direct action” will cost a lot more than an ETS or carbon tax. Abbott will just dismiss his comments as not consistent with his version of reality.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26473251-5005962,00.html
Are you posting as Luke and Astrobleme from the same place but different IP addresses?
Boerwar
It’s not even Andrews’ portfolio. I’d be pretty annoyed if I was Morrison.
I see no reason why a young child can’t be in the chamber during a division.
I do think it would be wrong for a child to be in the chamber during a debate.
Of course, the Garnaut report recommends an ETS as the cheapest option.
http://newmatilda.com/2009/12/09/hostages-abbotts-shadow-cabinet
Very interesting article; suggests the moderates have been snookered, by giving them positions in shadow cabinet which impose cabinet solidarity upon them but doesn’t give them any real power to control policy; and by recruiting enough of the potential floor crossers in the Senate to ensure that there aren’t enough of them left to get the CPRS passed.
Curses, they’re onto me.
No.
Dio
Yep. Sweet. Counts double.
Step 1: Go Firefox ==> Tools ==> click Add ons
Step 2: Select the Greasemonkey addon ==> click Options
Step 3: Highlight stfu and click Edit
Step 4: Now this will get a little tricky for non-techko. Firefox will probably ask you to nominate a program to edit the script file which is a text file. You have to select Windows Notepad.exe editor in your Windows directory.
Step 5: This is what you will see if notepad is open:
Step 6: You copy the complete Array function and change “bob1234″ to another poster, so the stfu script will look like this:
Step 7: Save the script file you have just modified.
Step 8: Exit Firefox and you might to start Firefox twice (dont know why). Mushy will probably say this is not very elegant, as i am not a programmer.
Step 9: No guarantee it will work for you but it works for me. Good luck and enjoy. There is no reason why you cannot keep on “adding” other posters that annoy you.
Love this:
@description silence of the spam
Starring Anthony Hopkins
Thanks, Boerwar @ 3091 and zoomster, for the article link, agreed interesting. The take over by the conservatives makes for an unhappy and just as dysfuntional party/coalition.
Z@3098:
Yes, interesting article.
And even if they don’t toe the line, they have to consider preselection for the next election if they cross the floor.
But if they are willing to risk that, there is no reason why they can’t cross the floor, knowing that their shadow ministry position will be withdrawn.
Puts them in some position of influence until they cast their fate to the winds.
But I’m not at all sure that’s the way politicians’ minds work. They do work, don’t they?
Barnyard as the prime witness for the counter argument.
I used to think that Abbott was the best thing the Labor party had going for it, but with Joyce, it’s a close run thing.
And we’ve heard zip from Bronny so far.
It’s a good time to be a political junkie.
Roll on the end of the silly season and the first sitting of parliament next year.
Bugger, doesn’t work for me ;-
But thanks for trying.
HSO
I do hope that General Abbott has not put too much of a damper on his Shadow Retail Cabinet of Opposition Colonels habit of shooting first and then maybe thinking about it later.
Joyce did look peevish afterwards. He is not used to being told to stfu; he is not used to the notion of self discipline, or discipline by anyone else. No fun. *hint to potential biographers: check for possible early mishaps with potty training*.
Finns, if everyone keeps consigning posters who annoy them to the outer darkness, isn’t there the risk that the amigos will end up speaking only to each other, Bushfire Bill speaking only to whomever else he reckons is worth considering, the techy challenged among us (that’s me, for starters) utterly confused by people responding at tangents all over the place and William finally deciding he’shad enough and declaring a Bryan Palmer?
Hurriedly makes sign to avert the evil eye…
Who wants to take bets on how long Barnyard will last as a shadow minister?
I say 3 months at the most!
Boerwar, I laughed when the Shadow Ministry was revealed in all its glory. I’ve got a laugh out of it every day since. I think Joyce incapable of the sort of discipline required of a shadow cabinet position, which is why I’m betting on his head to explode first.
Harry, not many posters annoy me here. But bob1234 was annoying and the only one. it was just a technical challenge.
Frank, you might have to “View source” to find out the real string to be used. What you see on this web page is not the real name used.
HSO
The Bludgers: a distant mirror to the Coalition?
HSO – I’ll back up those comments. Finns I think you may have started something sinister.
Saw Joyce on Sky and I think he indicated he wasn’t happy with the decision by Abbott. OH and I both said that he might decide to toss the job in if he can’t open is big mouth whenever he wants to.
The best retail politician in Australia just loves his oral gratification.
BH, i didnt start this. Like i said, it was just a technical challenge. Anyway, you have control at all times.
What did I miss?
Did William ban Bob?
Look, Joyce is just telling it as it is.
If you city dwelling, soy latte drinking elites can’t take the truth, that’s your get out.
So what if the Chinese and the Japanese and the USA and everybody bloody else stops trading with us or loaning us money?
Barnaby’s an accountant, he’ll pull a few bucks out of the trust fund and noone’ll be the wiser. Float a couple of offshore companies, keep the books in Tuvalu, she’ll be apples.
We might have to get back to relying on good old Aussie know how, but geesh. Better’n having to deal with those overseas types, some of who don’t even speak English real good.
zoomster, I just wanted to point out it could get very crazy, not tempt in any way. Personally, I just scroll. Works for me.
evan14, when do we count the 3 months commencing? Tuesday?
evan
stop tantalising us with impossible dreams…
Finns – I’m so technically ignorant that I couldn’t understand a thing in your post so I’ll just do the scrolling through Bob’s stuff too.
Evan14 – you little ripper Pricey’s gone but not before the PM spoke to him this a.m. He did a good job on the ETS but the rednecks listening won’t be changing their minds any time soon.
Of course when Joe came on he couldn’t help but bag the PM. Joe is a lost little fella at the moment and the media have given up their love affair with him because Barnyard is so much more ‘interesting’. Might end up in a beaut bunfight between Joe and Barnyard yet. I give Joyce less than 3 months starting from when he got the job.
Perhaps that is the price to be paid to minimise the outbreaks of ALP hack vs Green hack bushfires and boring the sh!t out of the rest of us.
Don’t think William has done any banning of Bob, Evan 14. However, Musrum posted a techy way of being able to edit out a specific poster and Finns has done some further experimenting with it. I got worried about it getting a bit crazy.
HSO
I think it may be called social engineering.
Joyce looked peevish and also a bit confused. All those years of throwing his food on the floor and being patted on the head for it – the best retail politician in Australia.
Now, stfu. He is being asked to unbend the banana.
As well as guessing how long Barnyard remains in the shadowy opposition bench, you would also need to specify if Barnyard quits or is fired by People Skills.
Who’s taking the bets?
Boerwar, I think it may be called an enterprise fraught with unforeseen consequences.
The next time Abbott declares the climate is cooling I want whoever is interviewing or hosting him to ask him why then does he need a climate change policy? Or better still a radio shock jock listener to ring in and ask him.
Barnyard is a loose cannon right now.
Imagine the consequences if he was dropped from the shadow ministry!
Hell hath no fury like a Barnyard chucked on the dung heap.
Nah, I shouldn’t wish for such goodies when christmas is so close anyhow.
Boerwar, I still don’t understand what the term “retail politician” means. What, they sell themselves? I’d have thought there was another term for that.
Harry: We could all do with a break from Bob1234!
BH: No surprise Hockey made an appearance on “The Angry Ant’s” final show, because Mrs Price works for him.
Rudd seems to handle these shockjocks well, Neil Mitchell especially!
Please, please, can we have a debate on Lateline between Tanner and Barnyard?
HSO
cf ‘retail’ politician.
It could be a sort of upwardly-mobile wannabe lower middle class thing. Or it could be about rough trade. I am not sure.
It’s Time, I’ll plump for Barnaby quitting. He won’t be able to cope with the self discipline and self censorship required. As Boerwar noted, he’s been getting patted on the head for too long for incoherent, nonsensical, sometimes incomprehensible rubbish. He probably didn’t understand why he got thumped over the head and told to shut up, rather than how brilliant he is.
Shouldn’t he be asked for his climate warming policy?
New thread.