A poll by the Adelaide Advertiser has produced a counter-intuitive result, with Labor’s lead increasing in the wake of the Mike Rann sex allegations to 57-43, up from 55-45 at the previous survey of October 14. After distribution of the undecided, Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 43 per cent, the Liberals are down 2.5 per cent to 35 per cent and the Greens are up two to 10 per cent. The full set of results informs us that Labor’s two-party vote in both metropolitan (54-46) and non-metropolitan (55-45) areas is lower than the total, which obviously can’t be right. The former figure grants Labor less than half the minor party and independent preferences compared with the more normal two-thirds; a more plausible metropolitan two-party split would be 58-42 or 59-41. The sample is 661 respondents, which isn’t bad for a state poll, but there seems reason to believe The Advertiser’s in-house polling is not conducted with the expertise you would expect from a professional market research agency.
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Advertiser: 57-43 to Labor in SA
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109 Comments
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Diogenes,
It would be a positive move to have the WCH and the RAH amalgamated in a new site but no political party has suggested this. The transitions of adolescent children to the adult system would have to improve for a start. It is fraught. At the moment, this process is deplorable and makes parents anxious whilst wasting a lot of time. Children go from high quality care at the WCH to a situation where they are out in the cold.
There are a lot of women who are concerned their issues are being overlooked by the current government, and who see that both the Premier and Deputy Premier have had problems relating to women; meantime, they are very happy in the company of developers, who are doing well under this government. Governments try to control the message, but if, like Workchoices, something stinks, it won’t be sold to the public no matter how they are wooed. Think St Clair. Instead of the slogans and pretty pictures in the newspaper and on the web there needs to be a lot more detail presented to the people. Simon Royal’s assessment still sounds perceptive to me; the poll may be up slightly, but a greater bounce would surely be expected after the announcement of the footy/cricket stadium.
So Rann is subjected to weeks of “sex scandal” in the media, all the usual suspects say he’ll take a big hit in the polls, then, despite all predictions, he gets a lift in the polls, and your line now is that the bounce should have been bigger? Oh Jillian, that is Liberal spin of a high order. You should get a job as Isobel Redmond’s press secretary – or perhaps you already have?
I agree that the transition of care from the WCH to the RAH is abysmal. I’ve tried to improve it in my specialty but the hospitals hate each other so much that it’s not easy.
Pesphos
There’s something dodgy about the poll. The numbers for metropolitan (54-46) and non-metropolitan SA (55-45) are both less than the overall 57-43.
That’s because country votes get counted twice in SA. Haven’t you read your state constitution?
104
They abolished the Playmander under Steel Hall.
Has this received a mention? Labor’s plan to upgrade Adelaide Oval seems to be more popular than the Liberal’s plan to build a completley new stadium:
It is a 661 sample, so this was probably asked at the same time as the poll last week.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,26480773-5006301,00.html
WTF? Can any Sth Australians explain this madness to me? http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/15/2772803.htm
What part do you need explaining?
Genius! Adelaide’s world class collection of empty industrial sheds has been added to, with the decision of the government to buy the former Mitsubishi site for $32M.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/16/2773174.htm
Why?? Why not force Mitsubishi to clean it up and then sell it off to a developer? It is a prime location for residential or commercial. But the SA government, and the old men in it, want to cling to the delusion that we are a manufacturing city. There are empty former factories in Adelaide that closed before I finished high school. They are still empty. They can’t admit that, in the end, the government has almost no ability to create jobs in Adelaide’s southern suburbs unless they are government paid jobs.
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