Newspoll: 50-50 in South Australia
With less than a fortnight until election day, Newspoll has finally come good with a poll of South Australian state voting intention, and it will hopefully provide a wake-up call to betting markets which continue to have the Liberals at an absurdly inflated $3.60. The two parties are in fact shown at level pegging, with the Liberals leading 39 per cent to 36 per cent on the primary vote. Most alarmingly for Labor, Mike Rann’s personal ratings are behaving exactly as Alan Carpenter’s did during the 2008 Western Australian campaign, with his disapproval rating (up ten points to 48 per cent) surging past his approval (down five to 45 per cent). Isobel Redmond by contrast is up seven points on approval to 58 per cent, with disapproval up two to 20 per cent. Rann nonetheless maintains a 44-41 lead as preferred premier, but this is down from 48-31 at the last poll. The Greens’ primary vote is down two points to 10 per cent. It should be noted however the period in which the poll was conducted extends back to January. Past experience suggests Newspoll which conduct a new poll over the weekend for release at the end of the campaign.
UPDATE: You can read my mid-campaign match report in Crikey.
This poll is somewhat worrying, particularly with reference to the preferred premier ratings.
Slight error above William – the dead tree version of the Australian says this poll is from January to March. This fact actually comforts me most of all, because I think the nadir for the government was sometime in early February. Labor has certainly improved its position since the start of the campaign.
The expressway bungle by the libs at the start of the campaign with the “I’m not in control of my own destiny” comment was a turning point for the government, as well as the silly “Redmond is Ready” posters, which as someone else on here has mentioned emphasises the fact that she probably isn’t ready at all.
I think the biggest thing out of this poll is that succession planning needs to be the priority for a re-elected Rann government.
A little disappointing that we won’t see an ‘intensive’ poll for SA until the end of the camaign.
Very disturbing figures for the ALP though. Hopefully they’ll reorganize and reinviorate from Opposition.
Your funny Itep. You think the ALP is going to lose? I’d be more worried if that was the results of the intensive poll.
I love how people keep predicting the end of the Govt!
Libs need to win 10 seats. I would find it hard for them to do that.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/sa/2010/guide/pendulum.htm
Seven ALP seats are under 10% the Libs would have to will all seven. Followed by winning back Frome, Mount Gambier and Chaffey, while holding Stuart. Can anyone see that happening? I cannot see the Libs winning that many seats!
ALP is like to win Mitchell or the Ind will hold it (Labor leaning), I cannot see Karlene losing Chaffey…(Even if it comes down to preferences.), Labor is in with a chance in Stuart and Hopefully the Ind holds Frome….
I won’t try to make any predictions, but I do hope this result shocks Labor out of their complacency, stops the stupid and depressingly negative campaign ads, and causes Atkinson and co to behave better. I still think Rann and co were a good government up to six months ago, and that the opposition is promising a lot of undeliverable, undercosted nonsense. Plus the Chantelois story was always a beat up about a non-scandal. Yet even so, we have seen a grubby side to Rann and Atkinson since. First there was the cynical internet censorship tactic (nasty), then the Buckland Park decision (favors for mates) and finally the Southern Expressway (a not so cheap stunt). Now we have the dredged up law and order “issue”. Rann’s cynical politics and Atkinson’s high-handedness makes Labor look arrogant in power. It isn’t a good look. I doubt they will lose but they can forget about gaining seats now, and some marginals may well be lost. Try harder.
Sounds like a few people have been sharing my complaints about Rann and Labor.
Serves them right.
On a more positive note, my $100 on the Libs at $4.75 is starting to look like a good bet.
And my informal vote and even advocating it seem not to be going to get me in trouble with the law.
Note to Rann; dump Atkinson NOW
I agree with Dio on dumping Atkinson; it should have been done before the campaign. I wonder how many marginals in the east he has cost Labor?
I haven’t seen any of the ads yet because I don’t watch free-to-air TV too much these days, but I did fear at the beginning of the campaign that Labor would go negative, rather than accentuating the positives, which they should be doing.
Nothing makes a government look more desperate than producing election ads that slag off the opposition, particuarly a popular opposition leader.
Look what happened to Howard when he tried it …
chinda
The worst attack ad is of Redmond saying ecstasy is safer than many other drugs, which it is.
Straight out of the Rove playbook.
And Hill’s crap about fixing EDs should be laughed at.The ED docs have been pointing this out for 2 years and Hill has welched on every promise.
Where do they plan to get the ED docs from? Centrelink?
I think the labor campaign could be more positive, as I genuinely believe there is a decent story to tell.
It’s fair enough labor showing Redmond talking about ecstasy – it does give the impression she thinks its safe (intended or otherwise) which isn’t a good look for her.
sykesie
She never said it was safe. It was completely disingenuous and grubby.
All political parties use a mix of negative and positive ads.
Who are those 12% others?
SaveRAH, Gamers, St Clare and who else? All of those would preference away from Labor.
Why is it “worrying” mate?
Global Warming is “worrying”
Sudden Infant Deaths Syndrome is “worrying”
Killer Bee’s are “worrying”
This is Democracy… uno.. people having their say. And at the end of the day you should accept whoever they vote in.
Actually they only need to win 9.
Thats of course assuming none of the Independents will buddy up with them. If some of the Independents do buddy up with them they will need between 5 to 8 seats to win.
The net disapproval rating for Rann would be a huge worry and he certainly hasn’t done anything during the election to turn that around.
He’s been incredibly arrogant and said to the voters “You’ve loved the last 8 years and I am going to give you another four just the same.”
TTH has never joined in an SA politics discussion until now. Figures. Perhaps he should take his own advice
And so the parallels with WA 2008 continue… right down to the ineptitude of the ALP’s campaign.
Scott @3, the Liberals will easily win Frome and Mount Gambier, and would have to be the favourite in Chaffey at this point. That leaves only 7 seats that they need to gain from Labor. Bright, Hartley, Light, Mawson, Morialta, Newland and Norwood are all very winnable, and would probably all fall under a swing of this size. And if Labor gains Stuart I’ll eat my hat.
There is a silver lining here: federal Labor is probably more likely to do well in SA later in the year without an ageing and unpopular state government holding them back.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Australian_state_election,_2010
11% others collapsed to 3.4% at the 2006 election. Don’t ever pay much attention to the others catagory. Often those polled use it as another way to say undecided.
I’m now of the firm belief that we’ll have a hung parliament, and non-major-party MPs will decide who forms the next government.
I’ll agree with you bob@19 ONLY if the next newspoll covering this next week or so shows a similar result.
@itsthevibehe – How do you know they will win Frome? People like Ind’s. Favourie in Chaffey? What makes you say that?
How can you say Stuart is not a possibility for the ALP? Sitting member retired.
I cannot see the Libs winning all 7 seats.
Let’s have a proper Newspoll, before everyone gets too excited!~
This shows that being strong on the economy and tough on law and order pulls votes in to a Labor government when they haven’t been in power for too long and the opposition is divided, but when they’ve been in power for 8 years and the opposition is putting on a united front, it doesn’t mean much. I think it shows that people do recognise the excessive spin by Rann, and the Chantelois issue has only excentuated the trust issue. There’s no overriding issue or failure on the Labor government’s part that anyone can put this down to. Look at past SA Labor governments, or current interstate governments. The issues just aren’t there.
Perhaps Labor losing this election might be good for them. It’ll show that the voters won’t support a Labor government who are simply there imitating a part-wet part-dry Liberal government.
No sitting member carries a 7% personal vote.
2006 was won by Labor on a statewide 2PP of 56.8%. If 2010 is more or less 50-50, Labor don’t have a hope in hell of winning Stuart from the Liberals. Have you been at the draino again…?
In the event of a hung parliament and all independents retain their seats (bar Mount Gambier), Karelene and Such are definites for the Libs with Hanna backing Labor. Geoff Brock is interesting. Although he lives in the Labor dominated Port Pirie, the remainder of the electorate is firmly blue. Any move to support Labor will see him punished at the subsequent election.
With Brock onside, the Libs need 6 seats from Labor + the Mount.
Ok, so this poll shows an average 2PP swing of 7% against the Labor government. They’d lose Light, Mawson, Norwood, Newland, Hartley, Morialta, Bright. That’s seven right there. The Libs will win Mt Gambier back, that’s eight. Bob Such said he’d support whomever his electorate tells him to – Fisher – that’s nine. Then they only need Chaffey either by winning or by Maywald’s support, or Frome, or perhaps even Hanna in Mitchell.
The Libs won’t win 10 seats from Labor but they can definately gain government based on this poll.
@bob1234, No I have not been at the Draino. I just refuse to rule Stuart out. Who knows how Mr Gunn’s retirement will turn out? Anything could happen! I don’t have a crystal ball.
Brock got under 10% outside of Port Pirie (Lib voting), and above 40% in Port Pirie (ALP voting). He also preferenced Labor above the Liberals in the by-election. Any move to support the LIBERALS is what would see the end of Brock. Silly boy.
No, you’re just unrealistically optimistic
Diogs,
At this stage you might want to check the fine print on your ticket. Does win mean gets the most votes, most seats, form government?
Also, the weight of mug money on the Libs could push Labor’s price to even money. Now that would be a value bet.
@bob1234, you seem to forget that Stuart was close at the 2002 Election – IE 1.3%, even when the ALP did not gain a majority! Anything could happen is Stuart!
http://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/results/electoral441.htm
This Newspoll of course is not so much a snapshot in time but a video taken over several weeks. It also has an error factor. For all we know, Labor may be up a couple of points or the Libs could be leading by one or two.
Most likely, the voting pattern is patchy, as indidated by the Tiser’s Morialta and Newland polls.
The only reason Brock won Frome in the first place was due to SA’s unique vote-saving provision, which Antony Green covers here: http://www.abc.net.au/elections/sa/2006/guide/ticketprefs.htm
From memory, I think Brock picked up ticket preferences from Labor voters who didn’t number the other boxes. This time around he won’t have a by-election atmosphere from which to benefit, and he also hasn’t put nearly enough effort into building his profile over the past year. I don’t see what appeal he’d have outside of Port Pirie, so I’d be shocked if he survived.
The last Chaffey poll result was basically a dead-heat between Maywald and the Libs. I think her image is tarnished enough among traditional National voters that she’ll narrowly lose. However, even if she survives, she hasn’t ruled out supporting the Libs in a hung parliament.
As for Stuart… sure, maybe one day, but Labor won’t be picking it up in the current political climate. Also, Gunn’s replacement is a popular local identity who should already have a reasonable personal vote of his own.
Under the state’s electoral boundary rules, 7 seats would be easy for the opposition to gain on a 50-50 2PP.
Momentum is a big thing in campaigns and it is clearly with the Liberals. Throwing money around at things they have ignored for the last 8 years isn’t a way of getting the momentum back to Labor. No-one is going to fall for that. This is a very cynical electorate.
GG
This ticket is who will form Govt. It looks like a hung Parlt so anything could happen.
I wonder if the NT and WA results will be reinforced here, SA and Tas, they will be big baromoters for VIC later in the year. If SA and Tas go anywhere near the Libs, then we can say that the fed/state divide is crucial. Swings will be fascinating, especially for me how close the Greens primary reflect the last few polls and the trend lines.?
Good to see useless Media Mike under pressure.
What an in depth comment that is. Very useful.
So if it took eight years for him to be under pressure, how exactly is he useless?
Bob at 27 – Ignoring the part of your comment that was patronising and responding to your actual point.
Frome is a naturally conservative seat and Labor will never win with the current boundaries. Given by-elections provide a smaller turnout (89.8 compared to 96.9) and his narrow margin of surpassing Labors primary vote, if he is seen as being a Labor or even a too Pirie focused independent, he will not get any lift from the remainder of the electorate that generally comes with incumbency.
Although Karlene is in the Labor ministry, she has consistently voted for Liberal minority government. Only when a Labor majority was secured did she go into the Labor ministry. The electorate did not punish her for this, but they would if she voted against Liberal minority government and possibly now with the state of the murrary.
But what you completely and utterly fail to acknowledge, is that if he supported a Liberal government, his voting base in Port Pirie would collapse.
Yawn…
They supported her when the Libs were hopeless and lost an election with only 43% of the 2PP vote (Labor on 57% of the 2PP vote is the highest vote any incumbent party has ever received in SA).
Geoff Brock obviously has something of a profile outside Port Pirie given that he got elected in the first place! The fact that he is the incumbent – and will have been sending letters out along those lines to remind people – and that he is an independent, will both work in his favour.
Brock to hold Frome.
I suspect the Libs will hold Stuart, but my spies tell me the Labor candidate has been working very hard to increase his profile. Liberal to retain, but not by much.
Bob,
I would be happy to respond to your points, but given your undergraduate approach to discussion, you are best ignored. Take it as slight, take it as a victory, ignore me. Not fussed.
I also think the Maywald with hold Chaffey.
Newland will hold up for Labor, as will Bright and Mawson. Morialta will fall, I think.
I will – my points are completely valid and you fail to respond to them. Your loss
What is the record on leaders winning with a negative approval rating when they are up against someone with a positive approval rating? It can’t be great.
And given Rann’s incumbency against a neophyte challenger, to be level on preferred premier is damning.
chinda
It probably doesn’t matter if Maywald holds Chaffey or not. If it’s a hung Parlt, I suspect she will have to support Redmond. It could end up exactly like in WA where it came down to whether the Nats would support Labor or Liberal.
Perhaps SA is similar to NSW, a community that gfeels the government has had it’s chance and an opposition that is seen as at least able to provide a viable alternative.
Granted , Rann is not as much on the nose as the NSW Labour Govt, who despite the elevation of Kristina Keneally to the Premiership, still look like copping a thumping in the polls (One ALP member told me that Keneally wasn’t put in to win the election, simply to reduce the size of the loss).
All government’s have a use by date. Its usually two or three terms, depending on how inept they seem and how credible the opposition is.
Oh well, when my sister goes back in to the RAH for the upteenth time and for the upteenth time gets golden staph, I can lay the blame squarely at the feet of the Liberals
bob
To start off with “golden staph” is the normal type of Staph aureus (aureo being gold in Latin). MRSA is the resistant one. And within 10 minutes of the first patients arriving in the New RAH, it will be infested with MRSA.
What are you going to do then. Build another hospital.
QEH and FMC are also infested with MRSA. Where is your plan to knock them down? It’s a completely illogical argument.
News just in from MixSum. Money coming in this morning for Liberals. Centrbet have tightened Liberals to $3.10 (from $3.60 last night) and eased Labor to $1.35 (from $1.27 last night).
Bob1234 you are spot on. The RAH is a pigsty that should have been bulldozed 40 years ago, in fact no hospital should be more than 25 years old before it is knocked to the ground and a new one built. Burnside Private Hospital discovered that when women in their old hospital started getting staph after giving birth.
Once it is in a hospital it cannot be eradicated so the liberals are dead wrong and ignorant about that. As for the doctors who want to save the dreadful place, they must be held to account for all future cases of golden staph or retire now.
I can’t stand Rann, Foley or Atkinson. Can we still have a labor government without those three in it do you think?
Isobel loses all cred. when she sits at the round table with the tired old losers like Rob Lucas and calls them an “experienced team”.