With less than a fortnight until election day, Newspoll has finally come good with a poll of South Australian state voting intention, and it will hopefully provide a wake-up call to betting markets which continue to have the Liberals at an absurdly inflated $3.60. The two parties are in fact shown at level pegging, with the Liberals leading 39 per cent to 36 per cent on the primary vote. Most alarmingly for Labor, Mike Rann’s personal ratings are behaving exactly as Alan Carpenter’s did during the 2008 Western Australian campaign, with his disapproval rating (up ten points to 48 per cent) surging past his approval (down five to 45 per cent). Isobel Redmond by contrast is up seven points on approval to 58 per cent, with disapproval up two to 20 per cent. Rann nonetheless maintains a 44-41 lead as preferred premier, but this is down from 48-31 at the last poll. The Greens’ primary vote is down two points to 10 per cent. It should be noted however the period in which the poll was conducted extends back to January. Past experience suggests Newspoll which conduct a new poll over the weekend for release at the end of the campaign.
UPDATE: You can read my mid-campaign match report in Crikey.
416 Comments
Pages: « 1 … 5 6 7 8 [9] Show All
What would make a bigger difference is if the significant amount of the voters who leave their ballots blank decide to vote:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/sa/2006/guide/ticketprefs.htm
So the greens haven’t preferenced Kris Hanna! He did take a massive dump all over them when he quit the party so you can’t really blame them for trying to spite him. He left a lot of people in the local branch very upset.
But this may not be a strictly local decision. It is possible the Greens preferencing Labor ahead of Hanna was part of a broader deal between Labor and the Greens for upper house preferences. Not that I think the greens will need any preferences in the upper house. I think they’ll be just above a quota in their own right. But some of the dreamers in the party think they can win a second seat.
Antony, Good on you for doing that with the Legislative Council tickets, but I do think its pretty pathetic by the electoral commission that they still haven’t got them on the website (or if they have they’re not in what I would consider the obvious places). It’s important information for early voters, as well as for psephologists amateur and professional and they’ve had it for days without posting.
I don’t like to criticize electoral commissions too much – its a hard job and they often get a lot of unfair flack, but my impression of the SA commission at this distance is not very favourable.
Any voter who tries to figure out the tickets votes is completely wasting their time. It is quicker to vote below the line than try to understand those tickets. There 38 sheets, one for each ticket, each with 74 preferences. You would have to be barking mad to check and try and understand those forms before voting. Even then, the preferences are completely misleading unless you also know the order groups will finish, and no voter will know that.
Dr Paul Collier died almost certainly because he was working so hard to achieve a goal of decent treatment of people with disabilities. Few would realise that added to all of the pressures of electioneering there were the added pressures created by everyday life. Everything takes longer, everything is harder. This is why those in the disability community have to be more determined than anyone else to overcome the additional barriers face on a daily basis. Support for the Dignity for Disability party will not change what has happened – but it might mean that SA is one step closer to having a person in a wheelchair successfully challenge Parliament House’s abysmal accessibility.
Ahh! Isn’t it wonderful to have a perfectly transparent electoral system!
I understand from insiders that the Greens (read their MP) struck the deal with the ALP back in November for the direct prefs which mirrors their deal in 2006 – Greens pref ALP in all marginals (inc Mitchell) in return for ALP pref Greens in Upper House ahead of any one with a chance of winning. The Greens do really believe they can get two up. This maybe why they dumped Paul Pettit from their number 2 spot and replaced him with Simon Jones. Tammy Jennings is a shoe in but the Greens are presuming a lot of the Xenophon 20% from last election will go to them. I think they’re wrong. Also, I believe Hanna’s vote will jump higher than last election with unhappy ex-Labor voters and he will still get up on the back of Green/FF voters ignoring the ticket and HTV cards on the day and preferencing him. What he should do is to also hand out a leaflet (or letterbox one) directed to Green/FF voters saying “Thinking of voting Green or FF? If you do, their preferences are going Labor/Liberal so if you want to keep me in Parliament for you don’t follow their HTV – put me 2″. The ALP did something similar in their marginals in 89 with a purple leaflet targetted to Independent voters “INDEPENDENT? Don’t elect John Olsen by mistake etc etc”.
Independently Thinking, two quotas is 16.6 percent. After preferences from the other parties contesting the upper house, not of the least including the ALP, it’s feasible they can get two. On balance unlikely, but possible. Their last five Newspolls have been 10%, 12%, 11%, 10%, 13%.
It realistically could happen
Yes that is a very good idea (assuming it is allowed under the SA Electoral rules). I have seen similar done by a candidate. I got well and truly abused and insulted by a representative of one of the big 2 parties (as well as being photographed and having my name written down and told to stop handing out such cards). Nevertheless, I continued to do so. It was supposed to be reported to the EC, but as the candidate I was handing out for didn’t get in the top 2 – I don’t anything happened. It was the first time I had handed out HTV cards and I just accepted that what I was told to do was right – and I wasn’t going to be stood over and bullied by someone who said they “knew”. I still don’t know whether it was “legal” – but the experience left a very bad taste in my mouth, so to speak.
If Isobel Redmond happens to win the election, then I propose this for Labor.
They cannot choose a man to lead. After Rann having to avoid attacking her like he would a man, I fail to see how his successor, as an opposition leader, could effectively challenge her.
A step too far for modern SA Labor but would be an excellent choice, IMHO, would be Frances Bedford. But as one of the few SA Labor progressive MPs, she has buckleys. JLO has too much baggage IMHO. Chloe Fox would be an interesting and unpredictable option.
#407
‘ Greens pref ALP in all marginals (inc Mitchell) in return for ALP pref Greens in Upper House ahead of any one with a chance of winning.“
Well let’s hope Labor competently pick those without any chance of winning, so it’s not a right royal stuff up like Labor made in Victorian Senate a few years back.
#411
PY
Amen. (so to speak)
I just saw and advert for Rann on the Adelaide Now website. It would seem the focus groups and the advertising gurus have picked up Rann’s lose of face and the campaign logo is a prominent ALP logo with the words RANN AND LABOR.
How soon will it before the words just become LABOR.
Is Rann the invisible leader ? The leader you have when you don’t have a real leader?
There wont be any change in the Rann/Labor governments attitude to stepping in over the head of the the experts (the Parole Board), and determining itself when prisoners should be released.
This is cheap lazy and grubby vote grabbing at it’s worst. Rann may be invisible in the campaign, but it seems he is happy to fire crap like this from the safety of his bunker.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-depth/let-us-do-our-job-nelson/story-fn2sdwup-1225839332650
Thinking about it, even if you take Rann out, Tom Koutsantonis will still be centre stage of the Labor team. Not sure it will make much difference.
The ALP says it will move to strip dangerous drivers of their licences permanently, if it is re-elected in South Australia on March 20.
……
Mr Koutsantonis had to resign from that portfolio after it was revealed he had committed more 58 driving offences.
“He’s had an ‘oops’ moment in relation to the campaign. He’d forgotten about silly old Tom Koutsantonis being a serial offender and that this legislation may well apply to him,” he (Mr Lucas) said.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/03/08/2839354.htm
New thread.
Pages: « 1 … 5 6 7 8 [9] Show All