The Australian has published a Newspoll survey from a big sample of 1500 Tasmanian voters showing Labor on 35 per cent (down from 49.3 per cent in 2006), Liberal on 36.5 per cent (up from 31.8 per cent) and the Greens on 25.5 per cent (16.6 per cent) – yet more proof, if any more were needed, that there will be a hung parliament. David Bartlett has recorded poor personal ratings of 38 per cent approve and 56 per cent disapprove; Will Hodgman’s are 53 per cent and 37 per cent; Nick McKim’s are 58 per cent and 32 per cent with just 10 per cent undecided, representing remarkable name recognition for a Greens leader. Preferred premier figures are 36 per cent for Hodgman, 32 per cent for Bartlett and 21 per cent for McKim. The result on preferred outcome is very finely balanced, with 41 per cent favouring both parties overall to form government, which in each case is evenly split between a preference for majority and minority government.
At 2pm eastern time Crikey will be hosting a CoverIt Live chat room featuring me, Possum, Charles Richardson, Greg Barns, Hendrick Gout, Peter Tucker, Michael Jacobs “and more”. You will be either to access it on this site, or here.
UPDATE (20/3): I suppose I should make some predictions. Simply by applying the swings recorded in Newspoll to each of the five divisions, I’m tipping conventional 2-2-1 results everywhere but Denison, where all three parties emerge with something very close to two quotas. However, the Liberals score slightly lower than Labor and the Greens, so accordingly my prediction is that they will miss out on the second seat, and that Labor will thus emerge with its nose ahead for an overall result of 10-9-6. In Denison, I’m tipping David Bartlett and Lisa Singh to win for Labor (though Scott Bacon can’t be ruled out), Cassy O’Connor and Helen Burnet for the Greens, and Matthew Groom for the Liberals. In Bass, Michelle O’Byrne and Scott McLean (Labor), Peter Gutwein and Michael Ferguson (Liberal) and Kim Booth (Greens). In Braddon, Bryan Green and Brenton Best (Labor), Jeremy Rockliff and Brett Whiteley (Liberal) and Paul O’Halloran (Greens). In Franklin, Lara Giddings and David O’Byrne (Labor), Will Hodgman and Jacqui Petrusma (though Tony Mulder is a roughie) (Liberal) and Nick McKim (Greens). In Lyons, David Llewellyn and Michael Polley (Labor), Rene Hidding and Jane Howlett (though I also think Jim Playsted a chance) (Liberal) and Tim Morris (Greens).
Some concluding campaign news nuggets.
• Franklin MP Ross Butler was among the chorus of criticism against the “robocalls” alleging the Greens had a secret plan to legalise heroin. Notwithstanding that official Greens policy states they have no such plans, Electoral Commissioner Bruce Taylor asserted had had no power to act as there are no electoral laws regulating phone calls. The calls targeted 20,000 homes on Tuesday afternoon with a message from Glenys Lindner, “a mum with two teenage children”, who said: “I was shocked to learn that Nick McKim and the Greens would give Tasmania’s worst criminals the right to vote. That’s just wrong. And their support for legalising heroin is simply not acceptable for Tasmania. What else do the Greens have in store if given a say in running our state? This Saturday say no to the Greens and their dangerous ideas.” Another highlight of Labor’s final week campaigning has been a leaflet which, as described by Sue Neales of The Mercury, features “a large photo of a syringe and an image of a criminal’s fists clutching the bars with his fingers tattooed ‘Extreme Greens’” – the latter being in reference to their policy to loosen restrictions of prisoners’ voting rights.
• Despite the party’s dimming prospects, David Bartlett remains firm that he will resign if Labor wins fewer seats than the Liberals, allowing them to “endeavour to form the government on the floor of the House of Assembly”. Since Nick McKim’s position is that the Greens will “not be moving no-confidence motions and those things that have the potential to send the electorate back for another election”, it would presumably not move to depose a Liberal government once installed, barring the proverbial extraordinary and reprehensible circumstances.
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GREAT to see the Tas ALP grubby, unintelligent, tactically D-grade smears blew up in their faces. Apparently a 9 year old answered one of their “robocalls” about the Greens alleged drug policies, and then turned and asked “Mummy, what’s Heroin?”.
Its all over the front page of one of the tas regional papers. Bartlett pulled the campaign when he saw the papers. LOL.
Here’s an excellent piece on how bad the Tas ALP campaign has sucked: http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/03/18/tas-election-scared-labor-shoots-itself-in-the-foot-with-robocalls/
I for one expect a serious contest between the ALP and Greens over who polls second tomorrow.
The two coalitions , ALP Green and Lib Green failed because,
1) The Greens,
2) the 1970′s style, developer supporting, Big tree pulping, anti-worker, big donation taking, old style politics of the born two rule parties,. Nuuuuu let me think, Oh, I think the voters are going to give us their opinion tomorrow.
I think the large undecided vote in Tas is a huge swathe of non-green voters who can no longer stomach the idea of voting for either of the majors.
Tasmania has become a sad little kleptocracy – and the saddest part is its run by a real rolled-gold loser of a firm, with totally dud profits forecasts, no future in a civilized world, and an industry that was never viable, and created bugger all jobs. Woodchips, FFS. They never made any money! It was only the cheap govt deals on raw materials that keep it afloat.
Oh, on online gambling passing for “economic diversification”.
A third-rate government, backing a fourth-rate industry. Tasmania deserves better.
No 54
It’s just a shame that the Greens are fifth-rate.
Depends on your POV, GP.
Last I heard the Greens were polling up to 40% in Denison. That would make them the major party in Hobart. Numero uno. Some also-rans called Lib, or Lab, or something.
What if the greens win enough seats to become the party with the 2nd most seat???
Could there be political history???
The thought of an ALP/ Liberal coalition???????
That’s right Steveo: the public of Tasmania has a right to know about any secret Lib-Lab deals, and their hidden policies too!!
I think its pretty obvious at this point that a vote for Labor is a vote for the Liberals. etc :0)
Not as such. But Tony Rundle’s Libs governed in minority with Green support (to the extent of the Greens not bringing down the government or blocking the budget but that was all) from 1996-8.
I will be interested to see if the gap is really that small (or if Labor even end up slightly in front). As I pointed out in my final Tasmanian Times piece, Newspoll’s record in Tasmanian elections is excellent but there is just a whiff of a possible pattern of slightly overstating the Labor and Green votes and understating the Libs. Or since it is all within margin of error it may just be coincidence.
I think the Libs’ performance and polling in this campaign has all been a bit underwhelming. If the Government is going to cop a 14 point swing then the main Opposition should really be getting at least 10 of that, and the evidence so far is they’re not.
I was amused to see Hodgman and Whiteley feign outrage over the robocalls, presumably to get votes or curry favour with their likely minority government partners. After all, this is the same Liberal Party that at the last election covertly bankrolled Exclusive Brethren attacks on Green policies – attacks that were at least as inaccurate and arguably grubbier – and that failed to apologise for doing so or commit to not running similar attack ads in the future, even after the EB had apologised (halfheartedly) and Timber Communities Australia had apologised (properly).
The state’s “anti-gay laws” were removed from the books in 1997. Prior to that they carried sentences of up to 25 years’ imprisonment although no prosecution had been made for decades and I think the penalties from the last prosecutions had been minor.
The overturning of the laws, although probably just symbolic given that they had already been knocked on the head at federal level, had a considerable social impact here – not only in the marginalisation of homophobia but also in the treatment of difference in general.
I think the idea of a large undecided vote in Tas is an urban myth created by EMRS’s irregular methods of presenting their data and also their polling methods (in particular their levels of staff turnover). The last EMRS poll had a real undecided rate of 8% not 26. The last Newspoll had a real undecided rate of 2.
They polled 40 and 36 in the two EMRS samples but EMRS overcooked their Denison vote by 12 points last election. I don’t expect them to get high 30s but low to mid 30s is quite possible and it’s very hard to say which party will top Denison today.
If it happens I think we should call it the Blue-Green Algae Alliance in memory of the “Red-Green Coalition” in Germany and “Labor-Green Alliance” in Tasmania.
Spoke with a Liberal Party ‘insider’ this week who believes the Libs have a better chance at winning majority government after this last week. Supposedly he thinks most of the undecideds have broken towards them after the ‘robo-call’ fiasco.
Of course, party operators always seem to think their party will win over the bulk of the undecideds.
It’s like a ghost town around here.
Have the hacks deserted the ship, or are they so ashamed of their disgraceful “mummy what’s heroine” they won’t show.
The lull before the storm.
Enjoy you’re unstable government marg.
Minority governments aren’t always unstable.
If it is recognised as an unethical practice why allow it? A recognised unethical practice needs to be stopped surely and the best way to do that is to make it illegal.
Bugger wrong thread.
Yeah, thanks ltep, I am aware of that but it hasn’t been a great success in Tas in the past.
We’re all waiting for 6 o’clock. I’m about to leave to scrute. Boy, the time is really dragging.
Where are u scrutineering, Roxanna?
Franklin – Lindisfarne Primary School. McKim, Hodgman, Giddings.
OK, I’m off! No more from me for a couple of hours, then I can tell you how it looks at my booth re 2nd prefs.
I am now live from Wrest Point tally room. Will start having goodies up on Tas Times as soon as Linz has finished having fun with a picture of me.
New thread.
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