The Australian reports the final South Australian Newspoll result has the Liberals 52-48 ahead on two-party preferred. Labor’s primary vote is 35.3 per cent (decimal places are apparently the thing in pre-election Newspolls, as are large sample sizes – this one is 1600, for a margin of error of about 2.5 per cent), while the Liberals are on 42.5 per cent. Isobel Redmond leads Mike Rann as preferred premier 45 per cent to 43 per cent. Mike Rann’s approval rating is 43 per cent, and his disapproval rating is 48 per cent. Redmond’s figures are 59 per cent and 23 per cent. We are also told Labor’s primary vote in Adelaide is 38 per cent, down from 50 per cent in 2006, while the Liberals are on 40 per cent.
My concluding round of campaign news nuggets:
• Better late than never, I now offer a guide to the Legislative Council election.
• The one consoling thought for Labor from the Newspoll is that it was conducted before Shadow Treasurer Steven Griffiths’ disastrous interview with Mathew Dunckley of the Financial Review, the fruit of which you can see here. The cornerstone of Liberal health funding announcements has been the $1 billion that will be saved from expanding rather than relocating the Royal Adelaide Hospital, but such savings were absent from the Liberal costings released this week as they would not be available until 2016. Griffiths argued that linking imminent promises to distant savings was a method to contrast the two parties’ approaches. When asked if this amounted to “spin”, he responded: “In essence, yes”. Isobel Redmond offered a less-than-inspiring attempt to finesse the comment by saying the Liberals had been engaging not in spin, but “oversimplification”.
• The Liberals’ costings have also failed to provide for its promise to match Labor’s $445 million promise to duplicate the Southern Expressway, which The Advertiser reports was “quietly put on the Liberal Party’s website (on Wednesday) without a public announcement”. According to the aforementioned Financial Review report, Steven Griffiths declined to comment when asked how a Liberal government would fund the project. The issue has been a problem for the Liberals since they canned an initial announcement in the week before the election campaign began, because Labor gazumped them with a promise costed at $165 million more than an earlier estimate which had been used by the Liberals. The most important seats directly affected by the issue are Mawson and Mitchell.
• During an interview with Antony Green on Tuesday (which you can listen to here), David Bevan or Matthew Abraham of ABC Mornings quoted Labor sources saying they had “no idea” what was happening in Adelaide, except that the Liberals were throwing “everything they had at them”.
• Electoral Commissioner Kay Mousley reports 99,500 postal vote applications have been received, an increase of 51 per cent from 2006. This perfectly replicates the situation at last year’s Queensland election, although the number of postal votes actually received was only up 28 per cent.
• For what it’s worth, Labor goes into the election with the editorial endorsement of both The Advertiser and the Sunday Mail.
Finally, a pre-match report I had in Crikey yesterday:
When the South Australian election campaign began four weeks ago, the conventional wisdom was that the Rann government would lose a bit of skin, but was likely to be returned for a third term. However, the trend to the Liberals which began when Isobel Redmond became leader last July has continued to gather pace, to the extent that Labor now hopes for little more than to hang on as a minority government.
If that’s so, the composition of the lower house cross-bench will take on immense significance. This was no doubt why The Advertiser chose to conduct its latest electorate poll in the southern suburbs seat of Mitchell, rather than one of the eastern suburbs marginals on which the election was previously thought to hinge. Mitchell is a traditional Labor seat currently held by independent Kris Hanna, who in the previous term parted company with a Labor Party he deemed insufficiently idealistic. After briefly signing on with the Greens, Hanna contested the 2006 election as an independent and scored a surprise win, credited in part to the backing he received from then state upper house member Nick Xenophon.
As the Advertiser poll makes clear, this time Hanna faces a grave threat from the resurgence of the Liberals, which perversely promises to deliver his seat to Labor. Hanna’s win in 2006 was achieved by overtaking the Liberal candidate and coasting home on his preferences, but the Advertiser survey has the Liberal vote up about eight points, a result consistent with statewide polls. If borne out tomorrow, that would reduce Hanna to third place and have his preferences decide the seat in Labor’s favour.
While such a result would give Labor the invaluable buffer of an extra seat, the poll carries a sting in its tail. In Labor-versus-Liberal terms, the two-party result published by The Advertiser shows an anti-government swing of 10 per cent, although that reduces to 7 per cent when using the normally more reliable method of applying preference flows from the last election. It thus chimes perfectly with recent Newspoll and Galaxy figures showing Labor set to suffer a swing which, if uniform, would cost it its majority.
With little chance of turning the ship around, Labor’s hope is that the swing will not indeed be uniform. Their two most marginal seats are at the top and tail of Adelaide: Light, based around Gawler in the north, and Mawson, consisting of McLaren Vale and suburbs at the southern edge of the metropolitan area. Labor was hopeful at the start of the campaign that its promised duplication of the Southern Expressway could salvage the latter, but the poll result from neighbouring Mitchell underscores the point that this prospect has receded. That takes care of two of the four seats Labor can safely afford to lose, assuming it doesn’t gain Mitchell.
The decisive electoral battleground thus becomes the eastern suburbs, where the next four most marginal Labor seats are all located next door to each other: Norwood, Newland, Hartley and Morialta, held by margins of 3.7 per cent to 6.8 per cent. Most observers have Norwood pencilled in as a Liberal gain, but varying degrees of ambiguity surround the remainder. Morialta is technically the safest of the four, but that’s because Labor over-performed there in 2006 for reasons which don’t apply this time. An Advertiser poll earlier in the campaign had the Liberals 52-48 ahead, and the word from both parties is that this is about on the money.
That leaves Labor needing to hold both Newland and Hartley, about which it is respectively hopeful and pessimistic. Any further Labor losses beyond that would be a surprise. The southern coastal suburbs seat of Bright looks vulnerable with its margin of 6.9 per cent, but Labor member Chloe Fox is believed to be safe. Despite its 10.5 per cent margin, the Liberals are said to be putting more effort into the seat of Adelaide, although Labor has spent a lot of political capital keeping the electorate on side and has a locally popular member in Jane Lomax-Smith.
For the Liberals to govern in their own right, they would need to gain all the aforementioned seats and another two besides. They can be confident of gaining Mount Gambier, a conservative seat being vacated by independent member Rory McEwen. There are two other country seats which could conceivably fall their way: Frome, the Port Pirie and Clare Valley seat they lost to independent Geoff Brock at a by-election in January 2009, and Chaffey, the Riverland seat held by the parliament’s sole Nationals member, cabinet minister Karlene Maywald. The one cross-bencher who is not in danger is Bob Such, a former Liberal who represents the southern suburbs seat of Fisher. There are schools of thought which say Mount Gambier could pass to a new independent, or that the Eyre Peninsula seat of Flinders could fall to the Nationals, but most scenarios for the new parliament involve cross-benchers we’re already familiar with.
All are keeping their cards close to their chests. Despite her association with the Rann government, Maywald is directing preferences to the Liberals, and would be mindful of the resistance the WA Nationals faced from their constituency when they were considering sustaining the Carpenter government in office. Such says he will seek the views of his constituents, having attracted 3000 responses to such an appeal when he was similarly placed after the 2002 election. Given that he serves a naturally conservative electorate, that’s unlikely to bode well for Labor.
The other independents are more specific. Brock has indicated the price of his support would be natural gas pipelines and improved water security for his electorate. Kris Hanna also says he will seek commitments to local projects, along with “detailed policy imperatives” concerning “water, democracy and pokies”. However, both would have to consider the internal state of the parties they were dealing with: on the one hand, a demoralised Labor Party with question marks over the long-term viability of its leader; on the other, a rejuvenated Liberal Party under a leader with unchallenged authority born of a success which few were anticipating even six months ago.
593 Comments
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If the Libs win in SA, will the “betting markets know all” people finally concede defeat? They had a bad result in WA, and this would be even worse I think.
I have spoken to organisers in all our key seats and the evil ones and they all have nothing very positive to say, we have had some astoundingly bad reports in hartley/nwd to name a couple and some signs of life in Bright and Newland etc nothing surprising a couple of the senior libs I spoke with were a bit circumspect but I think they were in shock
PIZZA IS ON ITS WAY!
Antisthenes
Posted Saturday, March 20, 2010 at 5:42 pm | Permalink
“comrade Ron, I’m on your team but need I go thru the list for you Leah, steph, Trish,”
WHO appointed them
Dont tell me that chauvanistic Labor party boys club as that total destroys Xanrhippe & Diogenous’s false argument
there is no sexism in demoting in any politcal party at all
Demotions happen not over sex , but over poor performanse and politcs Running a anti female Labor party argument is unpolical and naieve , but reely camoflaging anti labor snipping nuansing , and not very good at it at that
Yeah, they need someone to explain Hare-Clark.
You mean in shock that it seems like it is going to be so close?
And what did the FF card look like?
FF HTV
http://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/election2010/pdf/howtovotecards/Morialta.pdf
I suspect alcohol would be more to the point.
We believe that it had their preference going to Liberal ahead of Labor but it doesn’t seem to be online.
Im with you dyno
In Morialta the lodged Family First Ticket gives Simmons no 3 and Gardner no 2.
http://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/election2010/pdf/howtovotecards/Morialta.pdf
On any reasonably sensible definition of “ethical” , the distribution at a polling centre of a card of the type someone posted earlier (the fake card) – would be unethical.
However, it is apparently legal.
It is reasonable to conclude that Rann Labor are very happy to engage in unethical conduct, provided there is no law against it. As Atkinson is the chief law-maker, what should we conclude ?
No-one can accuse Tony Abbott of being sexist – Julie Bishop is STILL Deputy Leader after three and a half months (under her third leader)!
Would it be unethical for Family First to hand out How to Votes that don’t match the lodged version?
Rocket Rocket – How could Tone girl germs abbott say no to those eyes
SO
You might be drunk for about a week before the final result.
Yeh yeh ok Ron whatever you say, I’ve seen it first but I am sure you know better and anyway I agree we are not sexiest and a couple of them deserved demotion but in cabinet we have behaved badly/stupidly etc, the SA causcus is too small relative to the size of cabinet bound votes and it takes too few to control and the behaved badly at times lets just leave it at that
Bad person – on
Surely one would have put the order 32514 (to make it as little different as possible, with effectively the same result).
Bad person – off
thats not unethical, peter duncans former mate now MLC pretending to be a printer and supporter and printing wrongly distributed HTV’s and delaying supply until election morning in the Schauman/downer contest now that would be unethical – if such a thing could possibly have happened
Thanks for finding the cards. The design is similar, but they are different colours (dark blue as opposed to pale green). The word “Labor” is fairly prominent at the bottom of the Labor card. So it’s not an attempt to *forge* a FF card, and the use of the term “fake card” is therefore incorrect. It’s an attempt to influence FF voters to preference Labor, which is of itself perfectly legitimate. The ethical question is whether the card is designed to *deceive*, as opposed to *influence*, FF voters.
Sky News Exit Poll
TPP: LIB 53 – ALP 47
Antisthenes
Posted Saturday, March 20, 2010 at 6:01 pm | Permalink
th charge was SA Labor Party was anti female
lets stick to th false Xanthippe and Diogenes charge ,
not red herings about single people pollys ,
no one is perfect
Ok Ron Xanthippe and Dio are bitches, I agree
Tombliboo Unn walked on screen first on In the Night Garden…
Since Unn wears red, I take this as a sign that Labor will form minority government.
Antisthenes
Posted Saturday, March 20, 2010 at 6:07 pm | Permalink
“Ok Ron Xanthippe and Dio are bitches, I agree”
yep agree , that was my point plus
and making false charges against ALL SA Labor based that they ar anti female on denmotions and one letter
Sample size?
Besides dont forget only 30 years ago most men voted ALP and most women voted for the preened tories, we were the working mans party after all, but I reckon our women are smarter and meaner than any the tories throw up and for that I am eternally grateful and far more ideologically motivated
OK ron sorry shouldn’t come in pissed off in the middle of convo’s
#563
NO. The lodged cards only provide preferences to save otherwise informal votes and are lodged at least 2 weeks before the ballot. A candidate is entitled to change his mind as to preferences resulting from the campaign, and thus hand out a different card .
I don’t know what the actual card the FF elected to hand out today, but everyone is suggesting it was the same as the lodged card.
Psephos:
Sorry to confuse you further, but the link given for the Family First HTV was to the version supplied to the Electoral Commission, which isn’t necessarily the same as the ones given out on the day. The preference order is presumably the same (this isn’t a legal requirement, just a common-sense one) but the styling can be completely different. I live in a different seat and didn’t hold onto the HTV cards, but IIRC Family First’s were white with a blue trim, like their web site. (They may have made the actual ballot part of the HTV green, I don’t remember.)
And Newsradio are also covering both elections as well
I don’t know about smarter, but the nastiest woman in Australian politics, without a shadow of a doubt, is Sophie Mirabella.
Psephos sorry yes theirs are stupid mean and nasty, ours smart mean and nasty
ADELAIDE IS THE KEY
Libs have 14 seats + Chaffey & Mt Gambier = 16 + Bob Such = 17. (The other two indies will almost certainly back labor).
So they need 7 more seats to make the magic 24.
There are 7 marginals, but everyone accepts they won’t win Bright. That means they need to win all of the six other marginals + one. (including Newland…And not lose Stuart which will be no lay down misere)
The only possibilituies are Bright, Frome (not going to happen) or Adelaide sitting on over 10%. The newspoll offers some hope Adelaide is possible but surely its a stretch too far. If they don’t get it though they can’t win. Simple as that.
psephos #580: Personally I find Vicki Chapman (Lib SA) frightening.
I voted postally as I was working all day today, I had tons o’ fun numbering 1 to 74 below the line lol.
Antisthenes
Posted Saturday, March 20, 2010 at 6:12 pm | Permalink
‘OK ron sorry shouldn’t come in pissed off in the middle of convo’s’
no problam , always like Labor people
even man of th people Adam ,
sometimes
I should hav added earlier about stupid anti feamle Labor claims , apart from performanse and politcs factions , there is also personalitys issues , people hav to get along Not eveyone is lovable like me
Imagine hevens for bid , if Bronwyn Bishop (ungenuine sincerity face) and Downer (high faluntin irritating no conviction voice) was in a Labor cabinet , one would want to fire them
Nah vickys a snappy dresser but I agree re sophie, hes right she wins
IS anyone else have trouble scrolling down the page on Anthony Green’s website?
Sorry if its an odd question, but I pretty sure its not my machine that’s messed up.
The Sky News poll was only in marginals:
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/labor-likely-to-lose-at-least-six-seats/story-e6frfku9-1225843182334
watching sky news poll all bad
All that I can see on the fake FF HTV card is really 2 things:-
1. How to put Family First.
2. A positive statement that a 2nd preference go to a party that shares the same values – namely Labor.
http://resources2.news.com.au/images/2010/03/20/1225843/162522-vote.jpg
It is a far different card such as:-
Thinking of voting Family First ? Then put Labor 2 which at least is arguably ethical.
This fake card is unethical – and I can’t think of any arguments that would suggest otherwise.
#588
Same problem here. The scroll bar does not appear. I used the headings at the top to get where I wanted to go. The scroll bar only appears missing on the first page.
Antisthenes, can you please not ever leave comments like that last one on this site.
New thread.
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