10.31pm. Antony Green on Twitter writes the swing was 1.7 per cent in marginal Labor seats, 7.7 per cent in safe Labor seats and 11.3 per cent in very safe Labor seats.
10.28pm. As the upper house count has progressed to 43.6 per cent, the ABC projection has consistently pointed to four Labor, four Liberals and one Greens, with Family First and Dignity for Disability taking the last two seats. The final seat in particular is often a lottery, so I expected Dignity for Disability might fade from the picture, but it’s looking firm.
10.10pm. Isobel Redmond says they’re only three votes behind in Bright, but the ABC computer is now saying Labor retain. However, the current score is 7931 to 7887, which is surely close enough that the Liberals might claw it back on postals.
9.00pm. For those who have just joined us. Labor have a clear 23 seats of 47, plus have almost certainly won Newland and have their nose in front in Bright (ABC computer now says Labor ahead). The Liberals have a clear 18 seats, having gained Norwood, Morialta and, in the big surprise for the night, Adelaide, plus Chaffey from Karlene Maywald. Labor have surprisingly managed to retain in Light and Mawson, plus held on well in Hartley. It is still unclear whether Mount Gambier will be won by the Liberal candidate or independent Don Pegler. It looks like all three independents are back: Kris Hanna looks home in Mitchell, Geoff Brock has retained Frome, and Bob Such as expected retained Fisher.
8.45pm. Psephos in comments points out that all four defeated candidates are women, which could become five if Fox loses in Bright.
8.43pm. On raw figures, Chloe Fox is 1.8 per cent ahead, with preferences from five booths in.
8.42pm. Kevin Foley on ABC says a big final booth in Mawson has put to rest any doubts there.
8.34pm. There are no actual preference figures in from Bright, so who knows.
8.29pm. See-sawing ABC computer now has Liberal ahead in Bright, so it’s clearly right down to the wire there.
8.27pm. ABC now calling Chaffey for Liberal.
8.21pm. Liberal now ahead in Mount Gambier, according to ABC.
8.21pm. ABC now has Labor ahead in Bright.
8.20pm. The ABC isn’t calling it, but it doesn’t look real good for Karlene Maywald in Chaffey, with the Liberal candidate on 46.9 per cent of the primary vote.
8.18pm. Unless there’s a late surprise, a real happy evening for the Labor party room, a lot of whom didn’t care for Jane Lomax-Smith.
8.14pm. Bothersomely slow counts in three non-major party contests: Mount Gambier, Mitchell and Chaffey. Very good result for Geoff Brock, easily home.
8.12pm. ABC actually has Liberal ahead in Bright. If you were a Liberal optimist, you could add that to Adelaide, Morialta and Norwood and hope for a late surprise in Newland or Mawson.
8.07pm. And Davenport back in the Liberal column.
8.06pm. ABC computer calling Chaffey a Liberal gain.
7.55pm. Finally word for Bright, and it seems to be going according to script, with Chloe Fox set to hold albeit narrowly. Bruce Hawker says with all booths in they are fractionally behind on the primary vote.
7.48pm. In a huge boilover, the ABC computer calls Adelaide for Liberal: 20.6 per cent counted, 13.9 per cent swing, 10.2 per cent margin. So the Liberals have gained Adelaide, Norwood and Morialta. Mawson swinging still further to Labor.
7.47pm. Bruce Hawker has newer figures for Mitchell: Labor 32, Hanna 29, Liberal 29. So we’re back to a tight situation where Hanna vs Liberal for second will decide it.
7.45pm Peter van Onselen discussing Davenport: their figures have the Liberals 3.5 per cent ahead. However, this is still only two booths.
7.43pm. ABC calls Mitchell for Kris Hanna – Labor is in THIRD place, meaning their preferences would call teh result. Sky News has newer figures for Mawson than the ABC: 9.7 per cent counted, and Labor still ahead.
7.42pm. Light continuing to firm for Labor. However, it’s frustratingly slow going in Mawson and Adelaide.
7.41pm. However, their Liberal talking head says they’re still hopeful in Newland, although that certainly isn’t borne out by the ABC figures.
7.40pm. Bruce Hawker says Labor has won, with at worst five seats lost.
7.39pm. Err … ABC computer calls Davenport for Labor.
7.34pm. Count still very slow in Adelaide.
7.27pm. The ABC computer says 8 per cent swing to Labor in Hartley, which makes me wonder.
7.26pm. ABC computer calls Frome for Liberal.
7.24pm. ABC computer calls Light for Labor. Their primary vote is up 5 per cent in Gawler East. So the figures on which the ABC is basing this represent all the areas of the electorate.
7.23pm. Taking a step back. Labor have held Hartley and Newland, but lost Norwood and Morialta. They’re ahead in Light and Mawson. However, Adelaide is apparently a problem for them, and they’re not out of the woods in Florey. They might of course gain Mitchell, but it’s too early to say. So after a scary start, you can’t rule out them scraping home.
7.20pm. ABC computer calls Hartley for Labor.
7.16pm. Even with 17 per cent counted in Light, Labor are still just ahead. Furthermore, I would have thought outer-suburban Smithfield Plains would be the sort of area that was swinging heavily to the Liberals, but the figures are in and it’s largely budged.
7.15pm. First booth from Norwood has 13.5 per cent swing – I’d say you can write that one off already.
7.12pm. Independent Don Pegler doing very well in Mount Gambier, though too close to call.
7.11pm. ABC computer calls Morialta for Liberal.
7.10pm. First booth in Mawson swings big to Labor, but this is an area where a lot of new housing developments are appearing.
7.09pm. First figure from Adelaide bears up what van Onselen said: 13.6 per cent swing to Liberal, against 10.2 per cent margin.
7.08pm. Good news for Labor at last: ABC computer calls Newland for them.
7.05pm. Labor has edged ahead in Newland; Morialta swing back below double figures.
7.03pm. Still encourage for Labor in Light, but I expect that to reverse once we get Munno Para and Smithfield Plains in: Gawler itself might be a wild card.
7.01pm. Peter van Onselen says scrutineers tell him Labor is in very big trouble indeed in Adelaide.
7.00pm. Overall 2PP swing at the moment is 4.2 per cent, but that doesn’t tell you much: clearly the huge swing to Labor in Adelaide in 2006 is bouncing back, whereas the country is remaining relatively stable as it did last time.
6.58pm. Swing coming down in Chaffey: now extremely close.
6.55pm. Double digit swings in all Adelaide seats unless you count Light, which has turned from swing to Labor to slight swing to Liberal, and Newland, which is still a 7.0 per cent swing in a 5.2 per cent seat Labor needed to hold.
6.54pm. Should still be adding a note of caution on the earliness of these figures. One booth and 1.5 per cent counted in Florey.
6.53pm. First figures provide no evidence of a Nationals boilover in Flinders.
6.52pm. Double-digit swing to Liberal in Florey, enough to make a safe seat marginal.
6.44pm. ABC computer has a result for Frome, but ECSA doesn’t. It’s clearly the sort of booth where Brock barely registered at the by-election – he’s no 13.6 per cent but has a big swing.
6.43pm. The Light booths are Gawler River and Sandy Creek, exactly where Labor would expect to be doing well demographically as they change from rural to peri-urban.
6.41pm. First results from Chaffey not good for Karlene Maywald – 25.9 per cent swing against 17 per cent margin, although still only 2.2 per cent counted.
6.37pm. Actually a swing TO Labor in Light, but that was with 1.0 per cent counted. ABC computer is struggling.
6.30pm. First booth in Light swings 7.4 per cent to Liberal.
6.20pm. Tim Gartrell on Sky News says on the basis of the exit poll that there is “something in the thesis” of strong swings in inner Adelaide, with smaller ones on the fringes. That might be good news for Labor in Hartley, Morialta and Mawson, but it could also mean they’re in trouble in Adelaide.
6pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the SA election. Sky News has an exit poll showing 53-47 to Liberal, but this is presumably of marginal seats so it’s hard to say what it means. If anyone’s been discussing this in the previous comments thread, please provide any intelligence you may have on this in this new thread.
1,846 Comments
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Andrew
Don’t count on it until every single last vote has been counted – probably about 2 weeks at this pace. Sore loser if I’ve ever seen one. Hartley and Mt Gambier are both gone, she needs to give it up.
Redmond is hoping postals et al will get her over the line in Bright, and either Hartley or Newland. Very unlikely, but not surprising she hasn’t conceded.
#1791
[ Well done, Diogenes, you’ve discovered after only [insert your age here] years that in Labor governments the ministry is elected by Caucus. It’s only been that way for a century, so you’re forgiven for not knowing.
]
However, Diogenes your education is not yet complete.
In NSW, the leader has now been given the right to select his/her own cabinet. This right was given to the leader by the conference in November 2009. The conference motion was passed after Rudd intervened and gave his strong support to the idea.
Shortly after the then leader was given this right, he faced a leadership challenge and was replaced. So it was a kinda win/lose situation.
‘but before th patthetic bob 1234 pedant posts i think its Bignell’
Diogenes : “Did I just see Ron correcting someone’s spelling!!! ”
no , you saw someone who follows politcs knowing Bignell got elected , not difficult at all
BUT it is difficult for th patthetic who deliberate vote informal like you Diogenous admitted , bcause you now demonstrated no reel interest in politcs at all
To not even cast a vote for an Independant/anyone is patthetic , why bother on PB
Why would The Australian think Piccolo voted for Foley on the statements made – since when do MPs go around saying who they vote for in internal elections if they have any sense. If the suggested vote earlier was 20/13 then the only difference was someone abstained. Probably the Mitchell candidate who surely cannot have been serious in being admitted to vote. The only one on the “left” likely to have voted for Foley or abstained might be Conlon who was reported to have ceased being part of the formal left group some years ago when he was apparently bypassed as the chief representative of the left in Parliament but even that seems unlikely.
To fill up ’space’ , or imply a journo has ‘contacts’ , or to create a story’ or ‘left’ break
There is no thought given by OO to th public ‘mud’ some may stay of Piccolo now wears
Least Oo responsible could hav done is simple give a list of possible 6 or 7 w/o naming 1
Ron – agree Limited News at its mischievous best.
Ron
I voted DFD in the Upper House. The Lower House just had Labor, Lib, Greens and FF and I didn’t want to vote for any of them.
And if you knew anything about politcs you would know it was spelt “politics”.
Initially Channel 10 thought that Piccolo voted for Foley, and someone from the Right abstained. But then they said that they believe that Piccolo abstained as a protest for not being nominated by the Left for a ministry.
I ended up voting Green above the line rather than below the line, just couldn’t be bothered at this particular election.
From ticket examination recollection I think the Green ticket will help D4D’s chances, I prefer Kelly Vincent over the other potentials – Winderlich or the 5th Lib spot.
Good to see the prediction that the Libs will lose a seat and make the upper that little bit more progressive-friendly.
Obama healthcare t-shirt:
http://www.tnr.com/sites/default/files/tshirt3.JPG
Haha, at the public RAH booth, Save the RAH only got 5%.
The ABC is just about to report that Minchin is not going to contest the next election and is resigning from the front bench today
The story is now up
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/03/24/2854853.htm?section=justin
Big news. He’s been missing in action for a while now but I’m still surprised he’s finally made the decision.
That will make 2 spots on the SA ticket to fill for the Libs as Senate Deputy President Alan Ferguson is also not contesting.
That’s hardly a vote of confidence in Abbott!
Why now? It must be something to do with the SA election…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/03/24/2854475.htm
ALP now beating NAT for second place in Flinders.
Quite a sad result for the Nats given that they would’ve been hoping to have a chance to win the seat given the retirement of the Liberal member.
Sky News says Redmond has officially conceded.
Diogenes
Posted Wednesday, March 24, 2010 at 8:58 am | Permalink
Ron
“I voted DFD in the Upper House. The Lower House just had Labor, Lib, Greens and FF and I didn’t want to vote for any of them.”
As i said you exercised qa democratic rite to say you hav no reel interst in politcs ,
Informal votes ar normaly those that ar human errors of completing , torn , defaced or marked wrongly ,
but not usually for someones who has no clue or comit on politcs itself , you one
Finally! She really should’ve conceded late Saturday night. Even then she needed about 5 miracles in order to even have a chance of forming a minority government.
The barest minimum of changes in Ministry. Rau to AG, Weatherill Education, Caica Water.
All the stuff about having listened and renewal was spin and the usual BS.
Now we have to wait until Rann leaves for something to happen.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/03/24/2855009.htm
If they gave Wearall health, then he would end up so damaged that he wouldn’t be able to become Premier.
They gave the other two crappy poisoned chalice jobs to the left; Portolesi got Aboriginal Affairs (which isn’t as bad as getting it Federally I suppose) and Caica got Water which should finish his ambitions off short of a miracle.
Weatherill and the Left need to keep making sure the public express their disappointment at the lack of change so he gets Premier when Rann resigns.
Diog
Don’t forget you have a few squillion gigalitres of bootifull Qld water headed your way.
According to 10 News, the reason Labor was allowed to hand out Family First look-a-like How to Vote cards was because Labor’s legislation to make that behavior illegal was blocked in the upper-house by…. FAMILY FIRST!
You can chew on that irony Shows On and get it stuck in your teeth.
Here’s Senator Fielding rocking up at the SA electoral commission to complain:
http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/9647/fieldings.jpg
Couldn’t he have sent them an email?
I should’ve also mentioned that the Liberals did the same thing at the 2006 election, which is why Labor tried to have it made illegal, but failed because the Liberals and Family First opposed it.
ShowsON
I don’t think that makes it morally right, but still, it would probably be wise for Labor to reintroduce the legislation and see how they vote a second time. That might defuse the acrimony.
Family First are complete hypocrites when it comes to electoral reform. Keep in mind that it was Fielding’s vote that knocked off reducing donation disclosure from $10,000 back down to $1,500.
The solution is simple – all HTV cards are registered with the SAEC before polling day. These are the only ones allowed in polling booths.
Its not rocket science even for South Australians.
I do not think HTV issue in SA was morals or ethics , it was th Law that all Partys had to abide by , and did Politics is always played hard within rules of engage This alot diff from 2007 Lakemba fiascos
HTV is a vluable means of comunicating to voters , and if enuf Pollys think that can be improved for voters info , fine that becomes new Law and Partys will follow it This HTV form over years has been thru font sizes etc to improve , and prob will in future
ru
And parties should only hand out HTV cards clearly saying what party they are from.
I don’t understand why there should be how to vote cards at all. Just let people figure it out for themselves.
I’m told Chloe Fox now leads by TWO VOTES YAY
SO
Completely agree and I bet the voters would prefer it too (they can stick their HTV cards in the booth though). Still, it seems the major parties don’t want it so I doubt it will happen.
Hanna now seems to be ahead of the Liberals by 129.
SAEC has Kourtesis (who looked like a bit of a sour grumpy-wumpty to me on Sat night) ahead by 6 votes last updated 10 minutes ago.
Kourtesis will be a pure space waster if she is elected.
Those are last night’s figures. I have this from a scrutineer.
Did they give you a 2pp break down on the postal votes?
Seriously, wouldn’t it be better for federal Labor if she could be the candidate for Boothby?
No, they texted me: “Chloe by 2!”
Speaking as a resident of Boothby but not Bright, please God yes. (Then again, her kid probably deserves better than two election campaigns within a year . . . funny how that never comes up with male candidates, though.)
I think I’ll close this thread. Can those who would like to discuss the count, like we’re doing at the moment, do so on the Photo Finishes thread. If you want to do “whither the government” type stuff, the main thread should suffice.
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