Morgan has published results from last weekend’s face-to-face polling which shows Labor’s two-party lead at 51.5-48.5, their weakest result from this series since July 2006. Labor’s primary vote is down 2.5 per cent on last week to 41 per cent, the Coalition is up the same amount to 42.5 per cent and the Greens are steady on 9 per cent. Morgan has chosen to run as its headline figure a separate phone poll conducted from a smaller sample (571 rather than 830) over the past two nights, which has the Coalition leading 52-48 from primary votes of 36 per cent for Labor, 46 per cent for the Coalition and 11.5 per cent for the Greens. The purpose of this poll would have been to gauge reaction to the budget, but it would have done so imperfectly as the first half of the survey was conducted on the night of the budget itself. Nonetheless, it’s a discouraging indicator for the government despite the small sample, comparing with a phone poll last week that had the result at 50-50 from primary votes of 39.5 per cent for Labor, 44.5 per cent for the Coalition and 9 per cent for the Greens. Morgan claims its face-to-face polling is “more reliable”, but history suggests otherwise.
UPDATE: I hadn’t noticed that Morgan had issued three separate releases providing further results from the phone poll. Figures on preferred party leaders show Kevin Rudd slumping nine points as preferred Labor leader since January to 34 per cent, now only eight points ahead of Julia Gillard, who is up one to 26 per cent. Wayne Swan, Lindsay Tanner and Stephen Smith have all gained three or four points, but remain in single digits. However, the big surprise is that Tony Abbott has lost his lead as preferred Liberal leader to Malcolm Turnbull, who for some reason has shot up 13 points since January to 29 per cent. Abbott is now equal with Joe Hockey on 27 per cent, the two having dropped three and one points respectively. Kevin Rudd maintains a 49-37 lead as preferred prime minister, despite recent reports of internal polling showing Abbott ahead in key marginal seats. For some exasperating reason, Morgan has made a separate release out of figures on leadership approval ratings, which have Kevin Rudd slumping to 36 per cent approve and 55 per cent disapprove. Figures for Tony Abbott suggest a lot of voters have made their minds up about him for one reason or another since last week’s phone poll: his approval rating is up 3.5 per cent to 44 per cent, but his disapproval is up 4.5 per cent to 46 per cent.
Finally, and worryingly for the government, a third release shows support for the mining super profits tax has gone sharply backwards since last week’s phone poll, with opposition up seven points to 52 per cent and approval down six to 41 per cent. Further questions on the government’s response to the Henry tax review also paint a less positive picture for the government than last week’s poll. The budget is found to have had an unremarkable response, 60 per cent deeming it average against 19 per cent good and 10 per cent bad.
UPDATE 2: Poll interpreter extraordinaire Aristotle writes in comments:
A couple to things to note: Even with the disastrous 36.6% primary vote, the ALP is still at about 50/50 TPP. In 1995 the L-NP led the ALP consistently all year by as much as 56/44 and in 2007 it was by even a bigger margin to the ALP by 60/40 at times. In 1998, 2001 and 2004 the ALP had leads of 56/44 and Howard’s approvals were worse then Rudd’s are now and Beazley and Latham had better preferred PM ratings than Abbott. Beazley led Howard and Latham was within a few points. There’s little doubt that the ALP is under the pump, but it’s a reaction to Rudd and the ALP it’s not an endorsement of Abbott and the L-NP. You’d really need to see big, consistent leads before you could believe there was going to be a change of govt. What’s going on now is the public are giving Rudd a kick, but until the L-NP starts to get quite big leads, there’s nothing to show they want to kick Rudd out. 36.6% is pretty bad, but still 49.7% TPP is not so bad. I think what’s casuing the most confusion is that Rudd and the ALP had such high figures for so long. Now they’ve come back to the pack.
Elsewhere:
• Labor national secretary Karl Bitar writes on Twitter that Steven Lewis, lawyer and Jewish Board of Deputies member, has been preselected as the party’s candidate for Wentworth. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian wrote last week that Lewis had lost the support of NSW Treasurer and party power-broker Eric Roozendaal after barrister Robin Margo entered the fray, but Margo got cold feet after Malcolm Turnbull rescinded his decision to retire.
• “ALP takes action on woman”, reads one of the less elegant newspaper headlines of recent memory. The story relates to the Labor preselection dispute for the new Queensland seat of Wright, where Left-backed CFMEU official Andrew Ramsay has successfully challenged his defeat at the hands of Right-backed media consultant Sharon Murakami. Ramsay won the union and party delegate vote 26 to 24 and the local party vote 38 to 25, but Murakami ended up in front after the affirmative action weighting was applied. His subsequent appeal over an unspecified procedural issue was upheld this week by the state party’s administrative committee.
• Consumer advocate Craig Kelly has won Liberal preselection to succeed retiring Danna Vale as candidate for Hughes. Lanai Vasek of The Australian reports Kelly won a local branch vote ahead of Peter Colacino, a 28-year-old infrastructure policy expert who had the public backing of Vale, and Sutherland Shire councillor Kent Johns.
• The Milton Ulladulla Times reports on extreme displeasure in local party branches over the Labor national executive’s installation of David Boyle as candidate for Gilmore.
• Malcolm Farr and Simon Benson of the Daily Telegraph report Labor polling has shown the party has suffered a collapse in support in Lindsay, Page and Eden-Monaro. Liberal marginal seat polling is said to have shown Julia Gillard has a net approval rating of plus 16 while Kevin Rudd has fallen to minus 11, compared with plus 30 about a year ago. However, Kevin Rudd was said to be travelling better in Dobell.
• Melissa Fyfe of The Age reports Tom McFeely, owner of prominent Collingwood gay pub The Peel, is likely to emerge as the Liberals’ candidate for a winnable second position on the state upper house ticket for Northern Metropolitan. Fyfe further reports that Stephen Jolly, a prominent Socialist Alliance councillor for Yarra, will run as an independent in Richmond, where the Greens are a threat to Labor member Richard Wynne.
1,634 Comments
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Ahhh Labor hacks, where are they now?
Working and having a life.
Where is the origianal story re the abc rebellion
The AWU is about to start a TV campaign in support of the mining tax.
my say@52
It was only mentioned as is in Crikey’s Tips & Rumours section.
And now some Comedy
Ding Ding Ding we have a winner.
Howard won 4 elections on the back of conservative views of Australians. The lefties in here continously pretend that Australians are now lefties because they voted ONCE for “Economic Conservative, I’ll turn back the boats” Rudd. Sorry I’m not buying it.
Remember Labor needs ex-Howard voters to win the election, Australia is a conservative country and just because the left screams the loudest, at the end of the day they still only get 1 VOTE.
@44
Making sure they dont win requires some introspection and examining the Labor party/Kevin Rudd’s behaviour to determining why it is they have suddenly gone under in the polls after 4 years of dominance in them.
People haven’t switched their votes to the Liberal party because they have suddenly fallen in love with Tony Abbott, they have switched because of the (perceived) cowardice of Rudd to go to an election on the ETS, the issue about which he made such grand rehotoric about last year, the public feels duped and betrayed.
I dont neccesarily agree with that, moving back the ETS has been done for several timing issues, but that isn;t how the public sees it. But at any rate, the government started listening to Tony Abbott rather than their own convictions on the ETS, they let themselves get spooked by him and they are now ultimatly in a worse position than if they had stuck to their guns and fought an election on it.
I saw it live, interesting thing is he almost said Andrew Robb wrote his speech for Thursday. What was he two finger typing in QT?
47
All cash should be replaced by legal tender government issue account cards that are photo ID. Photos on bank cards too. A lot of crime a lot harder.
And this is even more pitiful:
Kevin 07 but not 11.. He has to go!! – 46 people Like This.
I’d take what Social Meida and Blogs say rather than the MSM.
Now thats not too bad after all it was last week end when we thought it was a dreadful week. Now it been better, so lets look on the bright side.
and also with the bit about the confidence bit the interest rates went in that week before this above poll.
But what get me about these interest rates is that only 35 percent have morgage
and they are really quite low. silly people dont know how lucky they are.
ruawake@57
Looking for Pr0n
now that could be 11 people who composed the ditty or they are lib staffers.
sorry 45 people
And this is even more pitiful:
where was that on a liberal face book
my say@64
Yep Facebook page:
http://www.facebook.com/heyheyitssaturday?v=wall&story_fbid=126187070731965#!/pages/Kevin-07-but-not-11-He-has-to-go/112932198745736?ref=ts
and if you go to the mining site Frank you nearly find 2000 people that have joined
so take the ditty out of your mind i think.
where was that on a liberal face book
yes but who owns it thats what i mean about face book no body really know who people are.
Don’t agree with your first point, but the rest is pretty astute.
While the wonks salivate at the thought that Abbott couldn’t pay for his promises, they were completely wrong in thinking he would be held culpable for this omission.
Labor is fighting the nascent campaign on whatever ground Abbott decides it will be fought on, in the present case, the mining “GBNT”. This is a big mistake. The public is scared shitless that their meal ticket to full employment might be taken away: a false assumption, but it’s getting plenty of credibility out there.
The cool heads who read the Fin Review and more serious economic correspondents’ pieces are being told that it’s no big deal, about time coming etc., so leave your investments where they are, but over in Bogansville the whole angle of attack can be summed up by “short-sighted greed”. One guy in the W/E Australian the other day was whingeing that Rudd was responsible for his fancy tyre business only turning over $7,000 a day instead of $10,000. I’d have liked to have seen what his takings would have been if we had 10% unemployment (or worse), like dozens of other countries. No-one asks, and the government doesn’t explain just why.
Naive PB’ers think a “clever ad campaign” will help. I believe it will hinder. The newspapers and TV station will take the money and still criticise and sneer for “another broken promise”, on government advertising this time.
While the government wonks out over the intricacies of the Budget figures, and lefty bloggers write slogans to each other, balancing this against that, waiting for the people to “wake up to Abbott”, the proles just want to hear about what they’ll get, be it fully compensating PPL, or $10,000 for every stay at home mum. Most of all they want to hear how they won’t have to work for it, because we do laziness very well here in Australia. We’ve been told our country is special, immune to what’s going on in the rest of the world, and we transfer that to our personal self-images as well.
At the core of it is that Rudd did not understand that your average Aussie battler likes nothing better than to kick someone when they’re down. It serves to take their minds off their own inadequacies.
GP @ 37
Is it a potential implication of the statistical goobleydook that Treasury, ah, massaged the big picture?
my say@67
Even therte is no admin – The people who join the page are there in full view
My calculations using Newspoll, Nielsen, and the two Morgan phone polls are:
ALP 36.6 L-NP 43.3 GR 11.3 OTH 8.8 TPP ALP 49.7 L-NP 50.3
A uniform 3% swing would see the ALP lose 14 seats to be on 69 seats, giving the L-NP 78 seats and a majority.
A couple to things to note:
Even with the disastrous 36.6% primary vote, the ALP is still at about 50/50 TPP.
In 1995 the L-NP led the ALP consistently all year by as much as 56/44 and in 2007 it was by even a bigger margin to the ALP by 60/40 at times.
In 1998, 2001 and 2004 the ALP had leads of 56/44 and Howard’s approvals were worse then Rudd’s are now and Beazley and Latham had better preferred PM ratings than Abbott. Beazley led Howard and Latham was within a few points.
There’s little doubt that the ALP is under the pump, but it’s a reaction to Rudd and the ALP it’s not an endorsement of Abbott and the L-NP.
You’d really need to see big, consistent leads before you could believe there was going to be a change of govt. What’s going on now is the public are giving Rudd a kick, but until the L-NP starts to get quite big leads, there’s nothing to show they want to kick Rudd out.
36.6% is pretty bad, but still 49.7% TPP is not so bad. I think what’s casuing the most confusion is that Rudd and the ALP had such high figures for so long. Now they’ve come back to the pack.
TheTruthHurts (evidently)
Howard won 4 elections on the back of conservative views of Australians.
Wrong. He won 3 of those, because he was an incumbent, and the opposition didn’t offer a plausible alternative. The first he won because the nation was sick of 13 years of Labor.
The lefties in here
In other words, anyone who disagrees with your rigid dogma. When you are a far-right, ultra-conservative extremist, everybody else seems to be a “leftie.”
continously pretend that Australians are now lefties because they voted ONCE for “Economic Conservative,
No, except for the lunatic right, most of Australia views the voters as in the centre. But of course, when your side is based on misanthropy and sociopathy, any desperate and unproven meme that justifies your hard right philosophy will be welcomed.
I’ll turn back the boats” Rudd. Sorry I’m not buying it.
Interestingly (not really, “exasperatingly” more fits, as a 3 year old seems to understand this all better than the Liberal hacks) Rudd’s election pitch was not based on the “boat people.” I don’t know anyone who voted for Rudd on how he will treat the refugees.
Remember Labor needs ex-Howard voters to win the election,
Conversely, Abbott needs ex-Rudd voters
Australia is a conservative country
A rubbish meme pushed by ultraconservative, extremist bullies who don’t like dissenting views
and just because the left screams the loudest,
They’re not the ones who flood the opinion pages, and make death threats against minorities and the defenceless.
at the end of the day they still only get 1 VOTE
just like the righties get no more than one. Although, not for lack of trying!
No 71
It would be most hilarious if we ended up with a hung parliament this year.
The other point I should have mentioned with Morgan, was that the “who do you think will win?” question has changed from 79% ALP in Feb to 65% in May.
Clearly a reaction to the polls and their reporting.
Pebbles 72, excellent post.
@72 has a point, the swath of voters in middle Australia that effectively determine the government every election are neither Conservative nor Liberal, either side trying to claim them as their own are deluding themselves.
But this swath of voters are more than capable of electing Abbott, just as they where capable of electing Rudd and Howard. The bitter ideological and political battles of the left and right mean next to nothing to them
only becasuse the people are well i dont know angry about something,. what i dont really know and listen to much to the msm perhaps but why this sudden drop after the health the polls where 10 points in front then all of a sudden
when the deck clearing was done and then the tax.
DID it offend many people in all different catagories all at once.
smokers miners, greens, and the childcare thing,
Makes me laugh really the fact that every one has a job that want one should be the most important thing in their lives.
Could we have prior notice of it next time William?
A coroner thinks that police colluded to support a colleague in relation to the death in custody of Cameron Doomadgee.
How surprisement.
No.
still very good though so that 65 percent i think will still turn back to the gov.
what do you think
Did anyone else hear the interview with Abbott today where he said Workchoices is not like Vietnam?
Too many sucks of the oxygen, methinks.
What is the Liberal Party policy on:
Telecommunications?
Superannuation?
Health?
Company Tax?
I could go on.
The answer is – do nothing.
;Did anyone else hear the interview with Abbott today where he said Workchoices is not like Vietnam?]
what does that mean ?? does he even know
keep saying silly thing like that tone now you offended the vets
No 78
Dear oh dear, William has a life outside of Poll Bludger. He is not at our beck and call and nor should ever be considered as such.
What is the Liberal Party policy on:
[Telecommunications?] heard the manage of the broadband say at a bus meeting that he is assuming business as usual and not even thinking about abbott winning.
So lets presume all bus.people may think that way./
Ahh Ltd News
No 83
All Labor policies are essentially the same: increase taxes, increase spending, increase the deficit.
I see Bruce Guthrie won his unfair dismissal case against News and was awarded $580k. Apparently, “Supreme Court Judge John Kaye also found News Limited Chief, John Hartigan, was not a credible witness”.
Rupert will not be pleased. First Storm was an embarrassment, now this. What next, Rudd will when the election?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/05/14/2899549.htm
William,
Morgan has now updated again with a poll taken 12/13 may showing the Dark Side ahead 52-48 2PP.
I’ve booked my ticket to Afghanistan.
Just on that Neil Mitchell interview: Mitchell didn’t come down hard on Abbott, and anyone who thinks he did just wasn’t listening. Mitchell asked basic questions about things Abbott ought to be well on top of; no mining tax = no super or company tax cuts; what else won’t be funded; have you done the costings on health – that sort of thing. Abbott was fluffing basic interview questions. The only hard one he got – about whether he proposed a 10K stay at home mum payment – saw him completely fall apart, firstly lieing, then lieing to cover the lie, and then just refusing to answer – with his braying laugh thrown in for good measure. Mitchell went a lot softer after that, even offering a free kick to Abbott on pink batts, which he fluffed. These things we learnt:
1. Abbott supports the smokers tax.
2. Abbott didn’t read the budget through – not even the major points – before preparing his budget reply.
3. At this stage, Abbott has no answer to where the cuts will come from, and appears to be saying that the homework hasn’t been done on that yet.
As far as the polls go, there’s always a bit of a lag between things happening and polls reflecting it. I don’t know why that is. But my feeling is that the vast majority of this country aren’t tuned in yet – most people don’t care much about politics. They hear a few things – Rudd backflipped on the ETS, Rudd wants to tax miners, etc – and feed it into preconceptions. The two big events around this polling period were the budget (I don’t think a lot of people actually watch it), and this hoohah about Rudd having a meltdown on tv.
Closer scrutiny about what the Coalition offer is just beginning. I think it’ll feed through the polling cycle in a couple of weeks, when the after-effect of all the Rudd bad news fades. Who knows? They might like what they see of Abbott’s ‘policies’. Stranger things have happened. But right now I’m pretty sure they’re still fixated on previous ‘bad news’.
#91
Yes, that’s noted in the post.
Meanwhile at Fib Central:
Far too many consonants in that headline – should read ‘plunge a dagge’ also referred to as ‘skewe a wimp’.
@89
Surely you can do better than that
William, next time you go away you should set up a Williambot that puts up posts at random intervals saying “behave, you lot.”
So how much is the Liberal Party going to spend on their wireless broadband scheme? Or are they going to leave it to Telstra?
I have faith that we’ll never see PM Abbott because the powers that be, while they would love a return of the Liberals, would not countenance an ex-seminarian, right wing zealot who is slightly unhinged and erratic in the top job.
No 99
Before you call Abbott zealous and unhinged, you lefties should give yourselves a good look in the mirror, and an uppercut while you’re at it.
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