The Courier-Mail has published a Galaxy poll of 1009 respondents “conducted over the weekend” which shows Labor with a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, the same as recorded in the snap poll of 800 respondents conducted on the day Julia Gillard assumed the leadership. However, Labor has lost ground on the primary vote to the Greens, down two points to 39 per cent with the Greens up three to 14 per cent. The Coalition is steady on 42 per cent. In spite of everything, two-thirds of respondents are said to support the plan on asylum seekers announced last week by Gillard, although “about six in 10” believe the measures “were not well thought out and were rushed”. The Fairfax broadsheets should come good with a Nielsen poll later this evening.
UPDATE: The Nielsen poll, conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, concurs on every particular except the Greens vote, which is at 13 per cent rather than 14 per cent. The sting in the tail for the government here is that it comes off the back of a quirkily favourable 55-45 result from Nielsen immediately after the leadership change. The poll has Julia Gillard leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 56-35, little different from her 55-34 lead previously. Approval ratings for Gillard have been gauged for the first time, and they have her at 54 per cent approve and 32 per cent disapprove. Reversing the last result, Tony Abbott is up on both approval (three points to 43 per cent) and disapproval (five points to 51 per cent), the latter shift probably reflecting an unfriendly sample last time.
A series of “best party to handle” questions turns up a surprise in giving the Coalition only a very slight 44-42 lead on asylum seekers, and when the Greens are included in the mix Labor’s score shows a six point improvement since the question was last asked in March. However, Labor would be alarmed to have slipped a further three points on the economy, with the Coalition opening up a dangerous 53-39 lead. Labor has taken four points off the Coalition as best party to handle health since March, now holding a commanding 57-33 lead that goes a fair way to explaining their latest television ad. Labor retains commanding leads on education (53-36), the environment (51-35) and industrial relations (58-34).
UPDATE 3: Essential Research has Labor up slightly from 54-46 to 55-45, although the primary votes suggest rounding has a fair bit to do with the improvement: both parties are down one on the primary vote, Labor to 41 per cent and Coalition to 38 per cent, with the Greens up two to 13 per cent. The supplementary questions are interesting: Julia Gillard’s mining tax changes have gone down well, supported by 50 per cent and opposed by 28 per cent, with 58 per cent rating Gillard’s handling of the issue “good” against 25 per cent “poor”. However, 41 per cent believed mining companies wielded “too much influence” in the process. The asylum seeker announcement slightly improved Labor’s position on the issue, which 56 per cent continue to think “too soft” (down 11 points) against 21 per cent for “taking the right approach” (up three), and the Coalition lead as best-party-to-handle has narrowed from 34-23 to 31-24. In spite of everything Gillard’s handling of the issue has 42 per cent approval and 33 per cent disapproval. Questions on the likelihood of WorkChoices being reintroduced under a Coalition government are little changed since the question was asked six weeks ago, with most believing they would and few happy about the prospect.
4,025 Comments
Uh, thanks for the feedback on the TV shows. I am afraid that the provisional ratings are confirmed and that today stays as a win for Abbott. Silly really, because he has done absolutely nothing to earn it… and therein lies his secret at the moment.
Cumulative score for day 5: Abbott 6 v Gillard 4.
Boerwar@1
FYI This was the lead story on Their ABC:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FO2wTi_Gw4E
Gusface from previous thread:
Not that I’m aware of.
They can keep attacking Abbott, but she ain’t go’in to win back the swing voters
Highest ever result for the greens, apparently.
Manunda, OK I’ll bite. You have absolutely no evidence for the rubbish you keep on sprouting here. Gillard is a much better performer than Abbott, and the economy is doing well. She has a better change of winning over the swingers than Abbott
Boerwar, with your analytic and prophetic powers, are you sure you’re not actually an octopus?
We get it: as per your arbitrary scoring system, Gillard is losing.
This poll is fine for me. An unmoved 2PP and only a slight bleed to the Greens (emphasis on “slight”)
This definitely fits in with my theory that the numbers are firming and looking more like an election result, than just an opinion poll.
It also seems to back up my theory that there isn’t a honeymoon for Gillard or, more appropriately, her ascension has cancelled out Abbott’s honeymoon.
Nielsen will be an interesting read. It probably will be the last pre-campaign poll.
Yes, in QLD..watch Newspoll go to 15% for The Greens…and stay there.
From Sloppy Joe – who’s on tour in Truthy Country
Watch the greens get no more than 10% in the election like always and then begin their inevitable democrats style death spiral.
As a bleeding heart I’m more than happy for bleeding to continue,..look I’m not spouting I’m using my network of Green around the place to gauge opinion particularly in rural SA country NSW and Northern Viv…I’m not arguing anything other than a slight increase in the Polls, obviously Gillard is going to win,..we’re not going to get into the hign teens (although I’ve got a couple of side vote on that) and I still think Melbourne’s a big ask, but…
ohh ,…12% at least Nico don’t be so conservative
man under
chutzpah par excellence
Thanks Frank
I would count that segment as a win for Gillard.
Other re: the daily scores
I thought it would be interesting to try and do a daily win, draw, lose score for Gillard and Abbott based on how they are presented in the daily media. I am not claiming any links between this and the polls or the betting markets.
*goes to bed to get ahead for tomorrow’s early morning event*
So the ALP have killed a 1st Term PM for a 3-4point rise in primary vote and virtually no change in the combined Tory vote.
Excuse me for a moment.
LoL!
B
a siesta?
cos espana will being having a fiesta in about 9 hrs
Be great to see if the gender break down is the same as Morgan.
A question:
Does Galaxy ask for preferences, or does it estimate?
confession time
i got up at 2 am watched a replay and was bout to post how good the dutch were
then i realised it was a replay of the semi, tho the deutxch dispatched the ur a guys with clinical effeiciency,at the end at least
Kom op Nederland!
Glen, I am one of the Labor voters who thought Rudd could beat Abbott. Nevertheless, a 4% increase in primary is very significant and locks in higher support going into a campaign. Rudd going into a campaign with a hostile media was a scary prospect with a large no of parked voters
glen
a school of grey nurses is hanging on paella tonite
Gough Whitlam turned 94 today. He’s now paralysed from the waist down and wheelchair bound but still goes to his office three days a week.
Glen,
The toxic media must take at least half the blame. They did the preliminary hatchet job on Kevin Rudd, attacking him to such an overwhelming extent that he was crippled, unable to get a message out, and his name being made poison in the electorate. Leaving a pragmatic ALP little choice but to finish the poor bugger off.
True Andrew I see your point.
I still thought Rudd would have dispatched with Tone (with minor losses).
I am predicting a 2-1 victory for the Oranje
But I’ll tape it. Too early for this night owl!
Nico, I do have to agree with you on the death spiral thing, I don’t know about other parties but when The Greens have debates at State conferences it is a scary thing to behold and if Rhiannon gets in, the internal stuff in the Senate may lead to bloodshed.
(see predictions on Insiders, she’s not joking)
michelle
and he still answers correspondence in freehand
at least he did about 3 mths ago when my eldest wrote to him
It’s good to see him still alive, but it’s also sad to see him on his last legs. (pun not intended.)
Longest lived PM. He’s also outlived most other heads of government (including every US President.) Hopefully he’s got a couple of years left.
So many cities….so many pie shops
MG, I actually voted for Kerry Nettle in the senate in 2007. For the greens to have found a worse candidate is quite something.
Grow up will you!
That fat jokes are getting really lame.
redwombat@31
Campaigning in a Food Court near you
Red
watch out
Glen will go you for the pies refeerence
Ooops
glen got in first
He isn’t fat just “thick skinned”
I dont get the need for jibes about Hockey’s weight. PLenty of other things to criticise him for
If you can’t manage your own weight, how can you be expected to manage the economy.
Look you guys are a joke.
Anybody who pays someone out based on their weight not their ideas is shameful.
Anybody who uses fat jokes or sloppy joe comments are a disgrace and bad karma is your reward!
I’m surprised that they are still allowed to be made as it detracts from the informative nature of this politics blog.
Glen – That four point rise might look small but that is acvtually quite a big movement, the LibNats are bascially going nowhere
Glen, I agree. Looking forward to hear some ideas from Joe.
It’s politics; cheap shots aplenty!
All sides are guilty. It’s just a little jest from the true believers.
It actually hardens the respective politicians up for legitimate criticism.
So the Greens vote has increased from 11% on the last Galaxy to 14% on this Galaxy. Big whoop! Who cares! There is no way the 3% that shifted are going to go to Abbott!
I hope Labor did not change leaders on the basis of a switch from ALP votes to Green votes? All votes that move from Labor to Greens will return to Labor on preferences.
Like I have always said, the Greens are real bad news!
Oh, and two thirds are happy with Julia moving to the right on Boatpeople. Suck eggs Greens!
He supported and tried to sell “Workchoices”…………..Oh i forget it was a humane act to stop us getting obese.
Glen
LOL
I think the lad doth protest too much
Now did I or did I not say the Green vote would shoot up again? I did. Yet again I am proven correct.
*pleasent feeling of smarminess*
Red
Sloppy is what we can aspire to be, if only worstchoices was weighted
Centre, your comments are noted,
am inserting the last dozen and saving the rest for Julia
Rubbish these comments disgrace this blog and yourselves.
It adds nothing to the debate. It is cheap schoolyard bullying which is rubbish!
*I’m off!*
*all the best, off to teach refugee children, its been fun*
Being overweight symbolises laziness and lack of self control imo, not a crime by any means but not qualities we should want in our leaders.
He did. I suppose he is running around Queensland trying to convince workers that they will be (to quote a spiel he used for SerfChoices) twice as well off under the Liberals.
Simply untrue. In 2007, Green preferences went approx 80% to Labor. In 1996, Green preferences only went 67% to Labor. I believe the recent WA election saw it in the low 60s.
It’s been said time and time again, the 2PP in polling has been misleading, because it’s using the pref flows from the high watermark of 2007, which can be and is different to what the pref flows will be at the next election. And this is what various polling including internal Labor polling was showing, and what really is common sense when Labor has changed from opposition to government and with it incumbency and like any government, with it’s own types of faults. There is no doubt Green prefs will not flow at 80% like they did in 2007. How much less is anyone’s guess. But to dismiss a high Green/low Labor vote, saying it’ll come back in prefs, is foolish.
I’ll thank you for refraining from addressing me in disgrace.
Indignity has no place in politics. If one is thin skinned then perhaps public life is not for them. Beazley too was ridiculed for his weight. I appreciate your desire for keeping the debate from resorting to ridiculing the superficial, but reality is that public life will always end up there.
Hockey is in good fortune to be a male politician – women get it even worse.
One of the more ridiculous comments I’ve read on the Poll Bludger.
Come on Centre, surely you can do better than “suck eggs, Greens”?
What about an indepth review of the Bob the Beggar incident, or the Green abuse of Parliamentry credit cards in NSW, or the internicene warefare between Bob the NSW Senate candidate, or Adele getting into bed with the WA Minister for the Supply of Olfactory Seating?
I’m sure you can think of a few others.
Lift your game!
I assume both of these comments are in jest:
Because they are both completely absurd. I defend a bit of superficial jibing, but comments in the nature of “fat people are irresponsible and bad people” are hateful, false and intolerable!
the only problem I have with the hockey joe bloke is this:
Is he full of piss and wind
History says yes
Gusface@59
Is that before or AFTER dealing with Bub Hockey ?
I saw the two semi finals of the World Cup Bludgers and thought Spain’s win over Germany was the more impressive.
I’m tipping Spain
Darth insidious
OMG
we agree
time to call obi wan
Pebbles, of course it was. Next time I shall put a
just for you!
If the campaign is called now, how long has it been before a government went into a federal campaign ahead even 52/48? 2001??
frank
good point
maybe joe feels his fealty outweighs his filiallity
I don’t think anyone who considers themselves intellectually engaged with politics could honestly agree with such a nonsense statement. Just like with Gillard being a woman, judge someone on what they do in government, not their appearance. One is completely independent of the other.
Darth
You relied on finns mate right?
I assume we all know that this line comes from a joke George Reid (our fattest PM) used to use. When he spoke from hotel verandahs, as was the thing in those days, he used to rest his (v large) belly on the railing. When a wag called out, “what are you going to call the baby, George?”, he’d glare at them through his monocle and reply, “If it’s a boy I’ll name it after myself. If it’s a girl I’ll name it after my mother. And if, as I suspect, it’s all just piss and wind, I’ll name it after you!”
OK fulvio, how about tofu munching, tadpole saving, weed smoking – Frank please continue…
*off to bed*
Scarpat 63
Good to hear. I didn’t peg you for a fool.
Pseph
yes
tho it is my fav all time political quote
and one I use often when pressed to justify my stance,the effect is timeless when delivered adroitly
rarely is it bested
Glad to see you’re following my sound advice, Centre.
chicken
Facial the only OMG thing is that you might be right for a change. If ever in fact
*gonski*
Darth
Sorry it was only gas
Hmmm. Looks like Japan’s recovery might have hit a speed bump. With a hostile upper house, it could prove difficult to get legislation through like here.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iKrlCLADpCGBF34MvkJMBmRRtbYg
Surely I should be off the shit list by now
In fact if JGillard continues her journey to the right you would expect the Green vote to remain high and continue to grow as being the only recognisably left party remaining. Also JGillard’s right wing politics may do just a little bit of harm to preference flows, even if informal, as it loses votes Labor otherwise would have received.
I think JGillard knows now that she can’t come out with the BS policy on CC she was probably intending (as seemed to implied by her rhetoric and statements by underlings in the newspapers), as it will drain a few more to the Greens, increase preference loss and deliberate informal votes.
If she does produce a BS non concrete proposal just how good would the agreed ETS seem if a Turnbull bought it out. Wonder how much of the preferences that would grab. If the Libs think now this is about saving the furniture they could think it a good idea to put Turnbull up front knowing they will dump he later.
So you would expect something real from JGillard on this and not some right wing deferral or nonsense.
I also wonder what the WA vote was and what the Galaxy would look like without them.
I’ve heard it said that Greens preferences to Labor were lower than usual at the WA election – indeed, I may even have done so myself – but I analysed the results not long ago and found there was very little in this. The rate of Greens preferences to Labor was about 1 per cent lower than it was in 2005, in the context of an election where the Greens vote was up from 7.6 per cent to 11.9 per cent.
Another story about Reid,was said to involve a visit to a mental institution in Perth while he was PM…formerly Reid had been Premier of N.S.W.
The head of the institution remarked to Reid that an odd fact about the institution was that most of the doctors were from Victoria. while ..most of the patients were from N.S.W .
“Oh well,” Reid said..”It goes to prove what I always say…any sensible person would get out of Victoria,but you would have to be mad to leave N.S.W”. !!
TP
Tis a tangled web we we weave we first we set out to decieve
Rembemer LOG must softly whistle to both green and redneck
a snail would do it easily
Depends who you ask, TTH.
TTH
cross the rubicon and you will be crucified
even if it means Wiliam banning me
Well I guess thats a “kinda”
I just don’t believe Gillard with her East Timor/PNG/Fiji/Lets pretend it’s anywhere but Australia AS policy. It just strikes me as a complete and utter lie, policy made to get her over the line at the election, much like Rudd’s “we’ll turn back the boats”.
What amazes me is the punters actually believe Labors lie on this one. We know they aren’t going to do anything about the boatpeople problem, the Labor party is full of idealogical claptrap on this subject and I think it’s sheer scamming of the Australian people to allow this faux policy to continue.
Gillard has not had a road to damascus moment, she’s had a trip to the election roundabout SPIN.
deblonay
I have read a similair quote
Reid was not short of a quip
The worse Labor’s vote is in WA, the better it must be elsewhere to get the same result. We don’t know yet how the mining tax deal has gone down with WA voters, but assuming that Labor’s vote is still below what it was in 2007, then the vote elsewhere must be higher than it was in 2007.
I note that Sportingbet has Labor losing only Swan in WA, which would be not too bad at all given what has happened this year.
Truthy
I own the damascus meme as per certain posters here
JOG has assumed the mantle of bodicca
What say you?
So who is going to watch the big game tomorrow morning?
Go the Dutch!
Well William, you set the bar to the lowest rung when you re-admitted bob1234. TTH has yet to outdo bob1234′s effort.
Scarps
think of bob 2.1 and truthy as scratching posts
you know it makes sense
And much like Abbott’s “we’ll turn back the boats”. Tell us TTH, how exactly would one “turn back the boats”, without leaving people to drown? (I gather Abbott has ruled this out, which is jolly decent of him.)
I believe you misinterpreted. I am on moderation.
The great British war time leader Winston Churchill was very over-weight and way past retirement age when he became PM in 1940 at the darkest time for Britain in WW2.
He once told General Montgomery…a real prig re diet and drink…that he always drank a bottle of Champagne each day at breakfast(which he often did !)
He also drank at other times of the day and smoked cigars constantly!
He however led the UK to victory …over Hitler…who never smoked, and was a strict vegetarian !
bob 1234 @ 54
Your claim is not supported by the recent opinion poll facts.
The most recent Morgan poll published on Friday, and using preference flows as nominated by the respondents (instead of 2007 actual preference flows) showed Green preferences flowing to Labor at 81% to the Coalition’s 19%, compared to the near 80% to Labor at the 2007 election.
Deb
Hitler was a wowser
bob1234, I guess this means that you have half a rung.
One thing about these “green voters”.
People in here are trying to claim these “new green voters” are dyed in the wool, leftwing socialists who would never vote Liberal.
I disagree. We have a large group of new Greenies voters who are traditionally conservative voters…. the “global warming” brigade. These voters believe in conservative values and beliefs but are strong believers of the “global warming” situation, so much so that they will vote Green, especially after Rudd’s backflip on the ETS. These people are not interested in fringe left policies of the Greens party, but they will vote the greens based purely as supporters of climate change action.
I think it is wildly mistaken by some that these people will absolutely prefrence Labor. People seem incapable of believing in traditional conservatives voting greens based on global warming. Yes 7% may be far fringe lefties, but it’s the other 7% you really have to question where their votes are heading.
Hitler wasn’t a vegetarian.
While not a big meat eater, he had the occasional indulgence in things like sausage, ham, caviar and the odd dish of game bird.
Truthy
good point
BUT what is the fibs CC policy?
There’s no evidence at all for that. There may be a few “doctors wives” Liberal votes drifting to the Greens in safe Lib seats, but not many, and almost none in marginal seats. Virtually all the “new” Green voters are disaffected Labor voters. Some of them may preference the Libs to spite Labor, but not many. Most will either go back to Labor on polling day, or will vote Green but preference Labor.
Still waiting for you to tell us how to “turn back the boats” without drowning people.
Truthy is right. There are a lot of conservatives who will vote Green 1st in protest. Also, with the increase of Labor’s primary vote, we may see a drop in Green-Labor preferences…
We’ll see.
My old man was a Turnbull supporter, but no doubt he’ll be voting Green this election.
Conservatives will make up a large portion of the “new Green” voter base.
People who believe in right wing values, but want real action on climate change.
It’s absolute crap. Both the ‘policy’ and what they believe climate change to be.
The Age, 21 April 2010
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/lib-climate-schemes-costly-inefficient-20100420-srrg.html
Sydney Morning Herald, 04 February 2010
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/emissions-to-rise-by-13-under-abbott-plan-critics-charge-20100203-ndj9.html
I think this is bunk.
It’s just a hypothesis. We won’t truly know the distribution until after the election.
I daresay, if the hypothesis is correct, it will only be by a couple of % ie. not enough to really change anything…
Things seem to be moving onto an imminent election footing now. Even Bob Hawke is getting into the swing of it already.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/pep-talk-for-candidates-from-silver-bodgie-in-corduroy-suit-20100710-104sr.html
Irrelevent… it’s the Labor policy that matters.
If these conservatives don’t support Labor, who knows where their preferences are headed after they vote green.
I would hazard a guess to say the “new Greenies”(7% ontop ontop of the current 7%) are 50% traditional Lib voters and 50% traditional Labor voters.
There is no evidence that conservatives are switching their support to the Greens. On the contrary, the conservative PV has consolidated at around 41% following their defeat of Labor’s CPRS/ETS.
This is another version of the “Labor will win Kooyong” mythology from last time. People vote for particular parties essentially for class reasons. Most rich people vote Liberal, and they do so for good reasons of self-interest. Very few will vote for a left-wing party over a non-economic issue like climate change or refugees. And most of those who are ideologically motivated to do so, already do so.
Wow, 2pp still languishing in the 30′s
what next, if the neilsen does 38 on 2pp?
Tell us how Abbott will turn back the boats, Truthy.
You’re using one poll. This Galaxy poll of 52-48 has a high green vote… 56.5-43.5 is a honeymoon poll given the quickly changing dynamics in federal politics. Gillard is not the progressive some whipped her up to be, the Green vote will rise back to ~15% again. Many people who feel more at home with Labor than the Liberals are more than ever apathetic of the party they still wish they could still hold high standards of. Rudd/Gillard Labor thinks the best way to be a well-liked government is to do what the polls say and back down when it’s too tough or controversial. This just wrong. Respect is gained by arguing for and explaining policies, and bringing the country with you, rather than following the country which is essentially a directionless path.
Howard turned back the boats.
The key is not to advertise the fact so that you give the crews time to prepare/sabotage your effort. In that respect Abbott has failed.
Though I still do not believe a word Gillard says about actually doing anything about boat arrivals. Do the Labor voters actually believe Gillard is telling the truth or are you just playing coy
Ummm… ok?
I thought the election would have been called this weekend, but 52-48 is not a great result for Gillard in her honeymoon period.
have i missed somthing is truthy back
Ask them nicely?
Couldnt hurt eh Adam
Err, no, the 2PP is 52%.
oops read that wrong. 2pp => primaries.
it’s been a long day.
Absolute rubbish TTH, if your mob were in government you know full well you’d be harshly criticising Labor if they had no policy on an issue.
Abbott has apparently said he won’t leave them to drown. So he has to explain how he will turn them back. If they are blocked, or taken in tow, they will just scuttle the boat. Then what? He won’t say.
Toorak Toff
52-48 is a solid-good result for the incumbent 6 weeks from an election.
anyway many people weren’t happy at 35,
are we going to play with the ETS if we get there again?
He won’t say because he’s not being pushed.
well is the neilson poll out tomorrow then will that then be a new thread
any thoughts on that.
I am a little dissapointed at the primary vote any thoughts on that
primary vote was better with the first newspoll with Julia was is not?
the liberal primary vote is of course the national and liberal together
It’s the same primary vote with which Labor comfortably won the 1990 election.
Glens back. Any fat jokes Gusface?
Because his policy aint a solution.
It is to appeal to certain sections of the public nothing more.
Polls do show that the only policy area where the Greens are regarded as better is environmental policy. This Greens swing has been a long time brewing because I think that although ALP tries to perpetuate the lie that Greens don’t support action on climate change because they voted against the CPRS, it won’t get traction because the fundamental reason for the Greens existence in the public’s eyes is to stand up for the environment. While the ALP appear to be stonewalling the Greens on environmental policy, the only way the Greens vote will go is up.
So the ALP is happy to fling some softballs the Greens way this election, because they can’t afford to fight a war on two fronts, I don’t think the Greens’ll have it so easy ever again. That’s ok because Greens’ attack dog Lee Rhiannon will take the fight to Penny and Cory – should make Senate QT much more engaging!
As for allegations that Greens misused parliamentary cards: doesn’t quite compare to the thoroughly corrupt NSW government – just look at Palanazzozizzo out at Penrith.
And considerably better than the 37.5% with which Rann won the SA election.
It may be the case as some hypothosise that the rate of Green preferences flowing to Labor will decrease if the Green primary vote rises in 2010. However, this is the exact opposite of what has happened at every election from 1996 to 2007. As the Green vote has risen at every previous election, the rate of Green preferences to Labor has also increased.
Also, if you look at the vote from seat to seat, the rate of preferences to Labor always increases as the Green vote rises, and the rate of increase usually corresponds to each extra vote above the minimum preference rate flowing back to Labor, which is why the rate rises.
Make of that what you will.
i do not quite understand the primary vote re seats etc is there some sort of nutshell quick explanation
She at least had the decency to resign. When is Rhiannon going to do so?
That kind of begs the question. I’m not sure if Gillard actually is having a honeymoon. As I said before, I think what we may be seeing is Gillard cancelling Abbott’s honeymoon, rather than having one herself.
Also, this poll remains virtually unchanged from the last Galaxy. Which in itself, stands as less Labor friendly than its competitors (as it has a history of doing). This is just something to occupy our minds until Nielsen is published.
may be when we start talking health and work choices the primary vote will rise.
I know abbott said that work choices is dead once again but i hope the unions and labor do not fall for that one
Well my prediction is Gillard will hold off on an election, with her backbenchers getting nervous and demanding she call an election straight away.
And the election will be held in September rather than August.
The obvious explanation is that the rising Green vote consists almost entirely of disaffected Labor voters, who make their protest by voting Green but still preference Labor. This may well cost Labor Senate seats, but it won’t hurt Labor vis a vis the Libs.
What Abbott says and what he really thinks, or might say or ‘think’ next week, are likely to be entirely different things.
The Age, 02 April 2010
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/when-flipflops-hurt-your-feats-20100401-ri4w.html
Is it gonna be anything like SHY’s “fight”?
If so, it may be good for a laugh!
Will FF disband once they lose their only Federal Senator?
My Say, what exactly don’t you understand?
this is where you very bright people leave me i like an explanation.
They still have seats in the SA upper house, so probably not.
how the primary vote translates to seats e,g how many seats would we win with that primary vote or would it be similar to we have now or less or a couple more
My Say – the primary vote is the amount of people who choose that party as their first vote, given as a %.
I’d probably not exploit and/or rely on a 48.4% 2PP win Psephos…
hmm. work choices ads were already run, will they work a second time or do people just ignore them if they’ve seen them.
we need to get that laugnan guy to do the scary voice over at the end.
The place where parties are born, and where they also die!
So how about the all important CEC vote??
I disagree.
It’ll be the marginal seats you’ll see the biggest impact. Traditional conservative voters pieved off about global warming inaction.
But if green voters or sort of green voters not rusted ons would they have more polcies to worry about than just AS they work and need good health etc
so workchoices and a health must become a factor in their voting eventually.
Only the NAME WorkChoices is dead. Not the concept.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bwIm5RoK8uI
My Say – the Greens will not win 15% Primary at the election.
Abbott will not bring WorkChoices, or anything resembling that, “back”. I’m not saying a Coalition Opposition/Government won’t bring it back one day, but Abbott will not.
Agreed. I fully expect Labor to get the same rate of Greens preferences they always do, give or take a small amount if the Greens really do play tough with their HTV recommendations.
Antony Green @ 131
Thanks, Antony, for some informed analysis of this matter over which so many Greens and Conservatives have been using nothing more than wishful thinking.
I believe that the Green vote will top out at about 8%, maybe 9% maximum on election day. If the Greens poll 10% that will be a near miracle, but either way, the preferences will flow at about 80% back to Labor. If these current ‘soft’ Labor votes finding there way into the Green column in opinion polls go back to Labor (which is what this means if the Greens poll about 8% on election day, not the 10%+ in some polls) then what on heaven, or earth would make people think that these preferences would flow to the Coalition in larger numbers than about 20%?
It ain’t gonna happen.
The primary vote is the No 1 vote that people cast on their ballot paper. So if you have a seat where the primary vote is Liberal 45%, Labor 40%, and Greens 15%, Labor will need two-thirds of the second preferences of the Green vote to win the seat. Seats are decided on the two-party vote, that is the vote after everyone’s preferences are distributed. So if the Green vote splits 12% to Labor and 3% to Liberal, then the final or two-party vote with be 52/48, and Labor will win. Does that help?
Psephos: a big difference between an honest mistake and rorting the system. That she won’t resign displays the integrity of her beliefs: if she resigned, then it would be deliberate wouldn’t it?
What the hell happened to good sportsmanship in politics anyway?
Pebbles: SHY brings youth and fresh thinking to the Senate but she doesn’t have the wealth of bear pit experience that Lee has. You get a thick skin dealing with Fred Nile, David Clarke and the Shooters.
rise.
yes i saw them they really need to up date them with different actors or really effected people not actors. I think they may, these just may be a reminder.
I would think they will have abbott somewhere in the adds as with him its a new ball game
I think he would be worse than howard re work choices and everything else also.
abbotts workchoices worse than howards
may be the way to go.
sorry about no capital letters i never ever give a liberal a capital letter.
I think the ads were a bit of a furfey (furphey?), The keep repeating “work choices is dead” in the ad.
Really, if they’d done it properly they wouldn’t have let abbot repeat that line so many times, even if they did disagree with it.
yes thankyou for that but me the worry person would love to see another
5 percent on the primary vote the more seats we can win keeps us in gov longer perhaps as it hard for the liberals to gain to many seats each election may be.
Vote 1 LaRouche!
lol
It cant be too hard to become a CEC candidate. But you’d have to have a screw loose to pass off as a LaRouchie
TTH
Is it “gut feel” that you think all of a sudden these traditional Conservative voters might think of voting Greens? Because a traditional Conservative view opposes climate change, or atleast oppose action on climate change. That’s not opinion or heresay, that’s just fact.
You don’t advertise the fact, then you turn the boats back.
If you advertise the fact than you are giving the crews time to prepare for such measures.
Labor has never turned a single boat back because they seem morally gutless on this subject. However Abbott may never get a chance if these people scutle their boats.
Watched channels 7 and 10 from 5-9.30 tonight and did not see the Anti-Abbott health add. I am in the Newcastle area. Did anybody see it tonight?
Would it be true that as the green vote has grown since 1996, the rate of green preferences to the Opposition has also increased (may be a protest vote)
Nielson 52-48 Labor
http://www.theage.com.au/national/labor-hangs-on-despite-poll-slip-20100711-105m1.html
That she won’t resign shows she doesn’t understand the Constitution. However, to be fair, she has until the deadline of enrollment to do so, I think.
Sporting or not, the rules are strict there.
One thing that will pick up interest on PB when JG eventually does that drive to see the GG,is that the pollsters will move on to weekly polls again.
Should have something for everyone on them and comparisons and trends will be the order of the day.
Especially predicting them!
Benji@164
Ch 7 Perth showed it just prior to the 6pm News
you have people like hanson young say they dont care about who wins but i wonder about that statement sometimes. i have never met a green that would vote liberal
I wonder if Nick Mckim really wanted the liberals to call him regarding the Tasmanian election, i have always thought they would be happier with labor actually mcKim is turning out to be quite a thoughtful minister in the sense that he seems to be thinking things through, its amazing how you change when you actully have to put decisions in to policy that has to be acted on.
Identical primaries to Galaxy, Gillard’s first approval rating of 54-32
If you believe that, you’re dreaming.
Individual contracts.
Abolish protection from Unfair Dismissal.
Shift and penalty rates under attack.
Sideline unions (thus hanging employees out to dry)
All the most menacing and destructive elements of SerfChoices are on Abbott’s agenda (plus a lot more, no doubt, that he has not told us).
Guess we’ll find out on election day.
I’ll put my head out and say the first 7% are 80% Labor preferences and the next 7% are split between Labor and Libs
Of all the factors in the Nielsen, this one is important: Abbott disapproval is up 5.
In theory you can win an election with 1% of the primary vote if everyone preferences you, provided you don’t come last. Henry Hewson won McMillan in 1972 with 17% of the primary vote. In theory that result could be replicated in 76 of the 150 seats, and that party would win the election with 8.5% of the national primary vote.
Oh look. Another poll, another spike in the Green vote. What a surprise. Not
Cuppa – Abbott won’t do it. They’ll hold it off.
Anyway, he won’t get the chance.
Definitely time for an election campaign. 52-48 is not great, but it’s certainly better than 47-53 or whatever the last one said.
I am confident with those numbers. We’re ready.
In other words you have no clue, and this slogan is just crap. You can’t “turn back the boats” unless you’re prepared to kill people, but you’re too gutless to admit this.
i think this is bit with some people who do not like the policy re timor but as i said
‘
and i am no expert i would think when things start to be discussed re health education and workchoices that most of these greens or so called will come back because they would not risk their livlihood or health etc re abbott.
what do others think
Greens voters find it extremely difficult to preference the liberals. Even when you despise Labor it is very tough to bring yourself to do it, because the liberals are always worse.
My hand hovered over the ballot for quite some time at the recent SA state election – I kept telling myself that Labor had to pay for Atkinson and Rann and all the lies and the arrogance and populism, that they needed to be taught that they couldn’t take intelligent progressives for granted – but in the end I preferenced labor ahead of the liberals. Because the liberals were (and always are) the greater of the two evils.
Maybe if the Libs get their act together and elect a moderate leader and marginalise the hard right faction (rather than the other way around) things might be different. But it doesn’t seem likely to happen any time soon.
So Labor is probably right to think it can ignore the disaffected left and that even if they vote greens the votes will return via preferences. The only downside to this strategy is that the inner city “safe” seats will be put in increasing danger. The Greens are almost certain to win at least one inner city seat from Labor at both the Victorian and NSW state elections coming up. And the Federal seat of Melbourne might go in August too. This is a cancer that will spread for Labor once started, not contract.
If Abbott wanted a SERIOUS deterrent to boat arrivals, as opposed to a lazy slogan, he’d say that no-one coming to Australia by boat would ever get an Australian visa, and that those who do arrive by boat will stay at Xmas I, or at Leonora, or anywhere, until they agree to go home. If he had the guts to say that, I’d have some respect for him. But he doesn’t.
Suggested ad to kill the Green vote.
Labor’s ETS could have passed with Green support, now the chance has passed.
The problem with idealists is situations are rarely ideal.
Vote for an effective Green policy {insert something like Liberals for Forests}
Publius
Just look at Adelaide earlier this year.
I know exactly where you’re coming from. But unfortunately, you’ll find that some people on here will read this and treat you as if you were a Liberal…
With some targetted campaigning, that will improve for Labor a little. It must be remembered that, although a Queenslander was leading the party, the ALP only just got above 50% in the statewide 2PP.
At the moment, it’s not the Greens we need to turn voters off of.
Gloryconsequence,
Who’s the self-confessed biggest fan of John Howard?
What was Howard’s dearest policy objective?
Answer: Abbott & WorkChoices.
Howard in the 1980s talked about abolishing the minimum wage. It’s speculated (and I believe the speculation) that if he’d won the 2007 election he’d have taken that as a green light and used his control of the Senate to do exactly that.
Remember, Abbott sees it as his mission to continue Howard’s work(choices).
Herald Sun, 25 February 2008:
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23270048-662,00.html
Please don’t underestimate the determination of these extremists to: 1) erode workers’ standard of living (to punish them because they tend to be Labor and Greens’ supporters), and 2) to destroy unions, thus cutting off a primary funding stream from the Labor Party.
HTT you have a high regard for Galaxy. How do you like these figures? To quote William -
The message for the Libs is clear but will they listen?
Abbott is electoral poison.
Nielson 52-48 Labor seems then to be about the number. One of the lies put about early to justify JGillard’s deposing of the Australian Prime Minister was that he might lose (we know that was a lie), and Rudd has improving figures on the back of the dispute with the miners (being able to at last cut through the media campaign against him).
At best JGillard has maintained the status quo, but actually seems she has cost Labor some. So the net effect of pointlessly wasting a PM for personal aspirations has been nix so far.
And I wonder if she is seen as the incumbent so close to an election. People may have the feeling that this is contest between two aspirants to the PM.
It is however early days as yet and still time for the honeymoon effect to take place as Gillard gets free advertising in various magazines.
But JGillard better watch out with her CC policy. She wont want to make the same mess of it she did with her truly amateurish effort on the AS issue. Otherwise people will be doubting more than her politically leanings, they will be wondering if she is competent.
A little bit of disappoint at Labor and a little bit of egg on their faces too.
I still think that the poll showing that a large percentage of woman will vote for Julia
will rise that lift out segment in the woman’s weekly which i never buy ( my daughter gave it to me for a keep sake) is just beautiful Julia looks so glamorous.
and so intelligent as well and the photo’s with her and Tim just so perfect for each other.
such a romantic story, if you have an oh or work colleague buy it for them
so so pretty and feminine how could any one ( even truthy) vote for any one else.
If you have a business put it front and center for your customer s to read.
Cuppa
I’m not suggesting Abbott isn’t an extremist on this issue. I’m not suggesting he doesn’t WANT to re-introduce draconian workplace laws. I am saying that he will not, as Prime Minister, do so. Big difference. The Libs have learned their lesson there. At least for now.
Still playing the victim bob numbers. Geez that must get tiring.
How can you possibly know that?
Perhaps you’d like to try and marshall some evidence for this ridiculous proposition.
Okay so these people try and come here, you “turn back their boat” as Howard did on several occassions without the crew trying to scuttle the boat, and you have success.
No killing people required. It’s really not a hard objective when you think about it, the key is to not allow the crews time to prepare to scuttle the boats in OUR waters.
Let’s talk straight for a second – Gillard hasn’t exactly had a dream start. You can’t compare then to now, different dynamics at play.
sorry i really disagree with that i think once there he would do just what he wanted to do and it would be goodness help the needy the disadvantaged and the
people on disability etc o single mums
I can remember all these above where at some stage mentioned in the Howard years.
And lots more to that is not written down
TP – you are joking. I feel a lot more confident Labor will win the election now than a month ago I assure you.
Psephos
Well, I don’t. Who does? In my opinion, even an Abbott-led Coalition government would not re-introduce Workchoices.
Gary@200
Well TP is only serving his new political masters by parroting their Talking Points
The main motivations for my unhesitant vote for Rann was:
- Anger over the extremely bullshit campaign by Rick Phillips, his wife and the media to tarnish Rann’s name. Despite being a load of bullshit based on a “he said, she said” argument.
- The fact that Redmond is a total phony that had no policies and was hoping to cruise into office on the back of the aforementioned smear campaign!
I give up. It’s like trying to reason with a 2yo.
How many navy ships do you think need to be deployed 24/7 to achieve this?
You really are as dim as a 40W globe.
52 – 48% with a PV of 39% is a far better position to be in than 52 – 48% with a PV of 35%.
Also Gillards approval ratings and PPM are far superior to what Rudd’s were in the last couple of months.
Anyone know when the nielsen poll was taken?
TTH – how are we going to do that, seeing as though there are loads upon loads of boats swarming our borders ready to take over our country as quick as they can?
Can’t have it both ways.
“Never ever.”
Anyway, that won’t be what the election will be won on. This will most certainly be a leadership election. Peppered with a few reminders of Abbott’s history when in power.
And I’ve already commented on this. I think what Gillard claimed was complete BS.
I’d 100% support Gillards plan, but the problem is I think she’s lying. Now the problem is the punters say they support what Gillard CLAIMS she will do, not what she will actuallly do. I support what she claims she will do, but I just don’t believe her and thats the problem. How can we trust Labor. Rudd said 1 day before the last election, he’d “turn back the boats” and it was a complete lie. Now Gillard reckons she’s gonna introduce the second coming of the Pacific Solution.
I’m sorry, i’m just not that gullible.
The principle of WorkChoices (if not the name) is the primary motivation, in fact probably the only motivation, holding the Coalition together. Smash the working class, destroy unions, destroy the financial base of the Labor Party, and ingratiate themselves to their business backers. If not for that draconian agenda there wouldn’t be a Liberal Party.
The 57% to 43% previous Nielsen poll has been ackowledged by John Stirton to have been overcooked, especially in Victoria and represented an unnaturally big boost for the home town girl, so 52% to 48% now sounds right, and is the same as the Galaxy Poll also published tonight. Let’s see what tomorrow’s Essential Media poll says.
56% to 35% on the Preferred PM to Gillard over Abbott is also a decisively good result, and Abbott’s disapproval up 5 points to 51% is unquestionably bad for the Coalition. Also 64% now think that the ALP will win the election, up 11%.
Interestingly, there is now only a 2% differential (44% to 42%) on the question of which party is best for handling asylum seeker issues.
I wonder whether Dennis Shanahan will be back from holidays this week to dust off the ouija board in preparation for the resurrection of ‘The Ghost of Newspoll Future?’
I agree with whoever said that Gillard needs to say something solid about climate before she goes to see the GG. That’s the last brick in the wall, and the hardest.
*gone*
Meanwhile over at the Terrorgraph:
That’s something for tomorrow, methinks. Let it sink in, and then go to Yarralumla at the end of the week.
Kom op Nederland nederlaag Spanje zoals je deed in de Tachtigjarige Oorlog!
Power management is under federal jurisdiction now?
Well, not quite gone.
Absolutely correct. Smashing the unions is why the Liberal party exists. It’s their absolute basic not-negotiable principle, and also the only reason anyone gives them money. It unites the whole party from Tuckey to Troeth. If they give that up, they have nothing. So they can’t and won’t give it up. If they’re in government, even without a Senate majority, they’ll do what they can to attack the unions and the living standards of workers. And who knows what deal Browm might be willing to do with an Abbott government?
*really gone this time*
Touche.
Won’t matter anyway. Abbott simply will not win this election.
I do enjoy seeing the Labor supporters and their Labor colleges “piss” on “racist” Queensland.
Call us whatever you want, but one thing I can tell you, much like WA we are relentless.
Glen – I might muddle through your German but Dutch leaves me completely baffled.
Tony Wright on Nielsen:
http://www.theage.com.au/national/gillard-poll-bounce-turns-clock-back-to-happier-april-20100711-105ml.html
TTH – it’s all about the marginals, mate.
Let’s talk again on election night after the results are in. 55-45 means nothing if the big swings are in the wrong seats.
Never forget SA 2010.
Yeah, numbers like that are going to change that view.
Queensland is a conservative state. The ALP barely passed the 50% 2PP mark in the statewide vote in 2007, despite having a QLDer leading the party.
TheTruthHurts
cn you tell me what Abbott will not
“turn back boats” what that reely means in practice:
1/ to where ?
2/ if you mean towed to non oz waters and they keep coming in at nite , do you keep towing then back outside of oz waters each mornings ?
3/ if th boats do remain in non oz waters , how do th boat peoples themselves not then die ? (seeing they hav no water & food) ?
If the 2PP popular vote is that big, a marginal campaign would probably still fail.
In answer to an earlier question
FACT: Dutch is not a real language. It’s just a big conspiracy theory by the Dutch to confuse foreigners!
Gormless, more like.
No doubt Gillard will win, the betting markets are showing the Libs over $4 bucks to win now.
What annoys me is that I just don’t believe Gillard will actually do what she claims to do. She’s doing a Rudd impersonation circa-2007, but I fear we’ll end up with yet another Rudd Dudd 2010. I’m not too sure what Labor stands for, they are all over the shop. The Labor supporters in here seem to be in lock step with whatever is says by Gillard from now until election day, but are you Labor supporters actually in agreement, or do you think Labors just playing silly buggers to get over the line? I’d really like to know
Tony Wright receives warm applause from me for this comment in the paper that publishes the poll:
Well done Tony – “rogue” survey it was and well done for the honest call.
Maybe turning back the boats without drownings would involve taxpayer funded life jackets and life rafts?
from the Politics section of the OO:
#234
that does not anwer my #227 Q’s to Truth Hurts at all
lets not make lite of what i asked
Julia’s dad has this to say on the election date:
“”The commentariat have decided it’s August 28, and I don’t like to argue with the commentariat.”
There you have it.
236
It was not a response for your question but slightly ludicrous answers to point out the absurdity of turn them back but don`t let them drown.
Tom Hawkins (233),
That’s true. However the poll he poll he does compare it with was itself anomalous according to every other (public) survey at the time.
Psephos@220: And who knows what deal Browm might be willing to do with an Abbott government?
On industrial relations? The Greens are well to the left of Labor on industrial relations, and you know it. Unless that deal with Abbott involves something like abolishing the ABCC, it’s pure fantasy on your part.
Come on, Adam. You can’t accuse the Greens of being surrogate Communists one week and Liberal stooges the next – make up your damn mind.
#238
understand motive , but my 3 #227 Q’s NEVER get answered by Truthhurts or Abbott , and they keep gitting away with it
‘turn back boats’ is a empty slogan , asbout time people explained in actual practice wht that means to suport there view
They’re also supposed to be well to the left of the Coalition on climate change, yet in the Senate Greens voted with denialists such as Bernardi, Minchin, Joyce and Abetz against an emissions trading scheme – the most profound environmental legislation ever put before an Australian Parliament.
You should be happy now, HTT. The hysterical over-cooking of this issue by the Liberals has produced a new consensus: A-S will not be admitted into Australia without first being detained elsewhere. Both sides of politics are now committed to an expensive over-reaction, mostly thanks to the fraudulent politics of Abbott and Morrison. Congratulations, you had a hand in this stupidity.
Hang on a sec.When this poll came out there was no mention of it being ‘quirky’. In fact in answer to some people’s querying of it, William, you said:
So when did it become quirky?
Badge of Honour, Briefly, Badge of Honour …
Cuppa@242
And what about if St Bob agrees to unions being banned as a group from donating to the ALP in exchange to some sort of token spending which will benefit the Environment ?
Think Meg Lees and what bought her vote re the sale of Telstra.
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/03/21/1079789938931.html?from=storyrhs
Of course, there is an upside to the nonsensical over-hyping of the A-S story: it helped provoke the end of Rudd’s leadership. This is a win-win situation. It is a win for the country; a win for Labor….and of course it will foil the Liberals. If there is anyone whose boat has been turned around by these events, it is Tony Abbott’s.
When no other poll backed it up. However, I’ll grant you that I was probably wrong to say the Victorian component of the previous poll shouldn’t have sounded a note of caution.
Tomorrow’s OO Proper:
As I, and many others, said when such polls were published, any poll that is released in the first few weeks – especially ones that favour Labor heavily, should be taken with a grain of salt.
The tears are dry and the cheers silent. Polling is looking more sensible now!
I see a theme with the OO headlines:
Labor to blame for everything that goes wrong in the world
perhaps both Neilson’s Polls rogues , one over and one under , and that next Neilson comes in between , which i expect with Labor primary up a % or 2
you jumpnig guns Piping Strike , till a few more Neilsens come out for trend
Fair enough, William.
Although I note that you are saying that you expect Green preferences to go the same way as usual for Labor. What was your view on how the preferences were breaking under the final months of Rudd? Because I remember the final 2PP which were mostly winning for Labor were being discounted by some because it was assumed that the Greens were breaking Abbott’s way more than usual. If not then the 1-2 pts movement in 2PP we have seen under Gillard would not constitute a ‘bounce’.
TPS, at the time I bought the idea that the inflated Greens vote was likely to mean fewer preferences to Labor than the last election, on the basis that their high vote was symptomatic of general disaffection with the government. However, I felt the effect was likely to be modest, and rolled my eyes when the likes of Andrew Bolt told us we should ignore the headline figures in Newspoll and look at respondent-allocated preferences.
However, between my own analysis of preference flows from the WA election (which I think likely to set a template for Greens preferences at the coming election, seeing as it involved a spike in the Greens vote from a bit under 8 to a bit over 11 per cent amid a backlash against a Labor government), and what Antony Green said above, I’m now backtracking even on that. It follows that my own evaluation of Labor’s polling position in the late Rudd era was slightly more unfavourable than it should have been, even though I was never shaken from my conviction he would win.
Having said that, I don’t think it will do to say that 35% on the primary vote and 39% are much of a muchness so long as the 2PP is the same (not that it is the same – if you look at the overall trend, as you should, Gillard appears to have boosted Labor by a bit under 2%). The former figure is illustrative or a more dangerous environment for Labor than the latter, in view of all the uncertainties that confront them between now and the election.
Fair enough. Thanks for the reply.
also Piping Shrike
it dfys logic tha Labor was sheddin primarys to Greens ie labor voters , whilst th loberal primary was not moving much , to tink ex labor votersgoing green would jump politcal chasams and 2nd pref libs
await a few more Neisons , but if Newspoll = Nielsen with 39% Labor primary or better I’d be happy
Well Ron, that’s what I thought at the time.
Glad you’ll be happy.
The ALP were always going to win and actually have gone backwards with the jump to the right.
What the likes of truth and co. don’t get is that turning anyone away is a massive breach of the law.
The Thai’s did it to Burmese and there was world wide outrage so they didn’t do it again.
Here’s a question though that only the SMH have bothered to ask.
We are the only ones whining endlessly about a few thousand refugees while 3.6 million languish in Thailand.
Is our so-called regional processing center for them and will be be expected to pick up the bill as they over whelm destitute little Timor Leste? And by what right do we arrogantly presume to take over another country to solve something Gillard said is not a problem while she runs around like a blue arsed fly.
I liked the cartoon lady on Insiders who said Tony born in England and Julia born in Wales should take their “go home” signs and show us how it is done.
Not true. I defy you to find a democracy where immigration isn’t an issue.
I love how bigotry is acceptable if it fits a left wing narrative.
And what about if St Bob agrees to unions being banned as a group from donating to the ALP in exchange to some sort of token spending which will benefit the Environment ?
Think Meg Lees and what bought her vote re the sale of Telstra.
You do realise that the Greens support trade unions as a matter of principle? Perhaps you could read the party’s actual policies for a change – then you might notice that Labor will sell out the unions long before the Greens ever will. There’s one party that supports the right of construction workers to have the same rights as any other worker, and it sure ain’t the Labor Party.
Julia should call the election now. Labor would be returned, the Greens would increase their vote and probably get an extra seat. Everybody would win!
so far the football has been rather boring, except for the tackles. there will be a send-off soon.
it’s that octopus is turned into salt and pepper squid.
Hmmm, i see that the lunatic is back. Bilbo must be watching the full moon also
nil all at half time point. A lot of tackling and intercepting. It is a virtual stalemate at the moment. Although the Dutch looked like they were on the verge of breaking through. Oh well, maybe in the second half. Failing that, extra time.
Hopefully it won’t go to penalties (as thrilling as they are, it is always lamentable when an important game is decided by a shootout.)
Watching these two teams play, I’m sitting here asking myself: how on Earth did these two make it to the final???
[It cant be too hard to become a CEC candidate. But you’d have to have a screw loose to pass off as a LaRouchie[
Glenn@152 - There's quite a few loose in parts of NSW and Qld. Even this morning a radio station networked throug both States is promoting him and the so called Lima Agreement. It's so funny to listen to but I feel sad for the people who fall onto the fear wagon.
0-0 at full time. One of the most underwhelming finals I have ever seen. Second half a little better but still lacking. Hopefully extra time will have some interesting action.
Judging by the quality of play, it wouldn’t surprise me if this drags out to penalties.
Spain get the opportunities but choke at the last minute (or the Dutch defend well) and the Dutch just kicking the ball all over the place…
Iniesta the hero of Spain, scoring a goal only minutes before the end of 2nd extra time, giving Spain a 1-0 victory, making them the 2010 World Cup champions!
Congratulations to the Spanish!
The Dutch phoned that one in.
That Octopus is right again!!!! Time to it turn into salt and pepper squid before it predicts WWIII.
The Finnigans 269
Get it to predict the federal election result for Melbourne
And, on a personal level, I will be a very happy man if I NEVER HAVE TO HEAR ANOTHER F–KING VUVUZELA AGAIN!
Pebbles -Labor would win by a mile cos the octupus loves the color red! Blue comes in way down the line
BH, not if we use the Blue Ring Octopussy
Octopuses actually freak me out on cerebral level. I am worried they will evolve to overthrow us. They already have demonstrated the ability to problem solve, use tools and modify objects. They’re virtually paleolithic. This octopus’ alleged clairvoyancy may be no coincidence…
On the football. I do wish that the Dutch had won, simply so I could point out the aptness of the Dutch coming to South Africa to score gold…
Finns – dolphins are not supposed to be so humorous so early in the morning!
Fran Kelly trying to beat up the ‘huge drop in support for Labor’ in Neilsen today from 2 weeks ago. Good on the Galaxy guy for telling her that Neilsen has said itself that the earlier poll was a bit dodgy. Kelly just said ‘ok’ and moves on quickly.
I’m just reading Morrison’s interview on Meet the Press. That bloke got an easy ride, particularly with this comment when asked how the Oppn would cut immigration numbers.
http://ten.com.au/meet-the-press-paul-bongiorno-2010-transcripts.htm
Love the bit about the Baird report. I would have thought the journos might have mentioned that the rorts and abuses were leftover from the Howard Govt. and are being cleared out by Labor. No such luck, it’s just left hanging that the Labor Govt. are to blame for the rorts and abuses.
RBA may consider the apparent weakening of activity in house sales a positive, not a “worsening”.
Generally consistent with a flattish domestic economy and lacklustre asset market performance. The last comment is real estate agent lore that comes out each election (I don’t know if it is true); not many agents read PB if they haven’t figured out there is a veritable miasma of election fever in the air already
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/property/home-auction-rates-hit-lowest-in-a-year/story-e6frg9gx-1225890485624
wow that was the quickest honeymoon in the history of politics.
I guess it has something to do with pigs and lipsticks.
Gillard had been about as competent as Kevin Rudd, the first 2 months, ie East Timor solution.
Can I use the Octopuss for this year’s melbourne cup?
What law would the government be breaking exactly?
BTW, Japan which is a signatory to the convention on refugee’s the same as Australia is does not accept boatpeople AT ALL. Not 1.
Guess what, despite being in a refugee hot spot(especially from North Korea and China) they don’t have a problem with boaties. See their government aren’t soft touches and as a result the boaties know if they come they will be turned around, and if they sink their boats they’ll be on a one way trip back to where ever they came from anyway. Thats a zero tolerance policy by Japan that serves them well. They aren’t getting hundreds and hundreds of boats every year like this soft touch Labor government is achieving.
If you want to stop the boats, you first must roll up the red carpet and make it as difficult for these people as possible to get here, it’s as simple as that. Thats why the Pacific Solution was so effective.
dovif @ 280
I’ll take the honeymoon that has PM Gillard ahead by 56% to 35% in the preferred PM stakes.
Maybe Abbott should put on some lipstick to try and reduce his soaring disapproval rating?
I’m sure Labor will recover Rudd’s upward momentum when they release their new climate change policy … I just hope they transcribe it from the back of the napkin to a press release before they announce it.
AdelaideNow Headline:
First lines of the story:
JULIA Gillard’s election gamble of lurching to the right on asylum-seeker policy has paid off, with most voters rewarding the toughened stance.]
Work that one out.
BH @ 277
Another example, if one was needed, of the incompetence of the ABC journalists. It shows a fundamental, or perhaps willful misunderstanding of the polling results, and is an insult to John Stirton from AC Nielsen who had the integrity to say that the previous Nielsen poll was, indeed, overcooked, and was over-estimating the ALP primary. To ignore this part of the reporting on the Nielsen poll shows the extent that the ABC has been suborned by the conservative culture warriors and Liberal hacks appointed to senior management and to the ABC Board.
Throw these reactionary timeservers out onto the streets, and perhaps the ABC can be brought back to some semblance of balance and fairness in its current affairs reporting …. and pension off Fran Kelly.
And I think there is perhaps willful misunderstanding of the polls by labor supporters. While Gillard has higher approval ratings than Rudd, there has been hardly any change in Rudd’s already-election-winning lead, and the upward swing in ALP voting was evident when Rudd was leader. Face it, there was no reason for a leadership spill other than the ambitions of few insider Labor hacks.
And all we, the Australian people, got out of the beheading was a capitulation to foreign-owned mining companies.
Julia Gillard is about to give a press conference.
It’s The Advertiser.
Say no more.
about what?
The AFR has given its impramatur to continuing the Hockey pie comments:
…and then the nation’s leading financial journal devotes a whole page to this!
cocoanut @ 286
Who is misunderstanding the polls here? Using AC Nielsen as the baseline, we have an increase in the ALP primary vote of 6% from June to July, a decisive change for the better in the relative PM’s approval/disapproval ratings and a massive jump in the preferred PM ratings for the respective ALP leaders over Tony Abbott. And the coup de grace, the Two Party Preferred rating has gone from 47% ALP/53% Coalition to 52% ALP/48% Coalition.
If you want to use the Nielsen poll to support one side of your wayward claim, then perhaps you’d better look at the other side as well?
TPS#285. The ABC so far have been the biggest disappointment. The drivel coming from News Ltd. is to be expected. If balanced news reporting can’t be expected from the ABC, who then?
coconaut @ 286
No, the rank-and-file of the parliamentary Labor Party brought down Rudd. The factional leaders were just the spear-carriers. The local members were getting an earful from their electorates.
No idea. ABC reports it as scheduled for 10:40am.
One word describes this position of Greg Hunt – Gutless!!!!!
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/industry-sectors/libs-want-local-rule-on-n-plants/story-e6frg97o-1225890483192
The Big Ship @ 292 – interesting you use Nielson as your benchmark
If we compare the last four polls under Rudd v. the most recent four under Gillard we see the ALP on 50.3% TPP before the spill and 52.8% TPP after the spill, both in a winning position (especially at this point in an electoral cycle) and the trend under Rudd was arguably heading towards 52% TPP already.
Hardly any bounce for a political party and at a cost of $35billion+ in lost mining revenue over the next 10 years … very underwhelming to me (and I am a swing voter).
Haha. AdelaideNow have changed the headline “PM’s support slips on boatpeople” to “Harder line on boats keeps PM afloat”
Bloody hell.
cocoanut @ 297
I could use Morgan, but you’d squeal that they are ‘biased’ to the ALP, or Essential Media, bit you’d talk them down as an unreliable’ online poll, and as the next Newspoll isn’t out until week, which ongoing and regular polling do you suggest I use as a comparison?
p.s. the company is called AC Nielsen – if you’re going to question their results, at least spell their name right.
Big Ship – maybe the folks at the Oz can listen to your advice on how to spell
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/polls-show-labor-ahead-of-coalition/story-e6frgczf-1225890633010
If that’s the case you’d be voting Labor seeing as Abbott is proposing to not bring in a mining tax?
Fran Kelly is the thinking person’s Piers Akerman.
Cuppa. Good analogy!
Anything on Gillard’s presser?
Possum over at Pollytics has some high powered and very cogent analysis of the individual seat betting markets which makes for a very interesting read as an adjunct to the usual polling analyses we pore over.
ABC seems to have given up on Gillard’s press conference. Perhaps it was cancelled.
The Big Ship @ 299 – quibbling about the spelling while ignoring the content of the post, well done
Tom Hawkins @ 301 – I honestly don’t know yet. Since they’re both blah on mining taxes and certain other issues, I’m kind of thinking it might be better for our long term democracy to punish the backstabbing and back-flipping of the government than to reward it.
Policy-wise, the Liberals wouldn’t be too much different to Labor.
confessions @ 306 – damn, I was hoping for an election announcement
coconaut: I think she’s still in Adelaide.
Ha
I needed a good laugh today
Thanks COCONAUT
coconaut
I would guess the protocol is that the PM asks the GG for a dissolution before any press announcement is made. Therefore I think the sign of an election is the PM visiting Yarralumla
cocoanut @ 307
We’d all do well to ignore the content of your posts, and I intend to do just that from now on.
coconaut
I reckon you are not a swinging voter at all. I think you vote Liberal or Green but certainly not Labor.
BigShip @285 – It was so pointed that Fran Kelly did not want to resile from what she thought. The Galaxy fellow told her that Nielsen acknowledged the overcooked earlier poll but when Kelly spoke with Grattan a few minutes later she was still saying the ‘huge drop’. She does not want to hear any explanation that will neutralise her agenda. It’s disappointing cos all we are asking for is fair analysis.
Tim Dunlp has a piece today on his new blog and the point is made that the journos are hurting themselves.
http://tjd.posterous.com/
Good news everyone:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/12/2950657.htm
This idea that there has been little change in Labor’s fortunes since JG became PM need to have a bex and a lie down.
Well, seriously Gusface, I follow politics moderately closely and think over the last few years the two party’s “tent-pole” policies have been (as they have filtered through to me):
Labor:
- ETS
- Stimulus spending
- Education Revolution
- Mining Tax
- National take-over of health
- children out of detention
Liberals:
- Tax cuts instead of stimulus spending
- No mining tax
- No or reduced ETS
- Pacific Solution for refugees
Now, as far as I can tell, the ETS is dead to both parties (Gillard says no new climate change solution until 2012), the mining tax is a shadow of itself, there is no further stimulus planned by either party (both are in debt reduction mode), both parties are promoting an expensive off-shore solution to boat people, and I don’t have kids, so I don’t give a fig about school halls. So, yeah, I don’t think there is much difference at the moment. The ALP were right to do stimulus during the GFC and the Liberals were wrong, so they get a tick from me for that.
Mithrandir,
Thats the best news of the day!!
Just following on from 316, here’s one good example -
confessions, I’m watching the live feed of her speech, on the usually ABC live feed link.
So the ETS is dead or isn’t dead?
they have added the Live Streaming link back to the rotating bar on the ABC news website.
Gary @ 321 – call me a cynic, but any politician that promises to look at an issue two years from now is not really interested in getting it done. Any thing can happen in that time (for example, I expect Turnbull to be back in charge of the Liberals at some point). So, yeah, it’s a wash.
Gillard doing speech now:
http://www.abc.net.au/streaming/abc-video2.asx
The speech is being done at this think tank in Adelaide:
http://www.percapita.org.au/
Gillard almost crying at her conference.
BH @ 314
As I said before, willful misrepresentation of the known facts. It is beyond incompetence, and represents nothing more than her biased opinion, not news reporting. On that basis, Fran Kelly is not fit to be called a ‘journalist,’ however dubious that epithet now is in the debased current affairs pit of ordure that they all wallow in, and has crossed over (down?) in ‘opinion commentator’ territory alongside the likes of the egregious Ackerman, Bolt, Devine and Albrechtsen …. if the cap fits, Fran, then you’ve gotta wear it.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/greg-moriarty-the-best-man-possible-for-indonesia-envoy/story-e6frg6zo-1225890492635
Interesting comment by Sheridan in the OO. The bloke who ran Immigration through theHoward/Abbott Government’s awful Departmental disasters was rewarded with a plumb job. He should have been sacked along with the Immigration Minister instead of one going to Rome and the other to Indonesia.
What are you watching?
Coco
fair enough
but perhaps the MSM aint put out enough good news about all labors achievements
That fact alone should sway alot of the swingers
Time to sell off their ABC. Why should we pay for shit?
What is the presser about?
ShowsOn – when she mentioned her parents the first time her voice waivered a fair bit. Not bagging her, just an observation.
she had a small shake in her voice talking about her parents. quite sweet.
She’s talking about her upbringing, her values etc.
Its a speech regarding her beliefs and how they will inform her politics. skills and education is the focus.
But what is it about? CC? IR? The war? AS?
Gusface @ 329 – how can you expect the media to put a good spin on the last three years of ALP work when the ALP itself sent the most powerful message possible that it had failed by knifing the leader?
Bringing education and skills back to the fore.
“Do we resist change, or master it?”
“Do we move forward, or back?”
She’s setting up the campaign.
Thanks middle man
Talk about cutting off your nose …..
Let’s invite Tone to bring back Workchoices, let’s have Tone’s draconian solution to AS and let’s have Tone do away with the tax regime being set up for the big miners.
Good idea.
We don’t want any Tone’s policies of course but if I’m not getting everything I want then I want none of it. So there. (Stamps foot and walks off.)
I still don’t know the answer to my question. Is the ETS dead or not?
So what is it – Liberal or Green? Anyone who posts here declaring they are a swinging voter but then saying they consider voting against Labor because of the PM getting rolled is not a swinger at all.
It’s all so transparent.
pretty dull speech really.
middle man – wasn’t supposed to be an exciting policy announcement speech. But yes, not that amazing.
why – gloryconsequence
So the honey moon is over and she is back to where Rudd was; the labor mad right have done well, helped out the Liberal mad right no end.
Are you for real Tom Hawkins? It is possible to look at the long-term health of our country’s democracy and go, “actually, I don’t think the rich and powerful should be able to engineer a situation where the PM gets rolled for taking on protected interests, and I don’t want to encourage it”. I know I am in an absolute minority about it, but yeah, I do feel that the Australian people lost a battle last month.
BH – she was talking about her upbringing etc. and when she mentioned her parents’ sacrifices she got teary. Nothing major, like I said, just observing.
Yes but I reckon you’re not
Coco
We lost that battle at eureka
I think you are confusing one issue with the other
pls clarify
So Jules is heading for a divorce. Surely we cant have a PM who is unmarried, divorced, childless and faithless. Next.
coconaut
Posted Monday, July 12, 2010 at 10:52 am | Permalink
“Policy-wise, the Liberals wouldn’t be too MUCH DIFFERENT to Labor.”
“Claiming” to be a swing voter eh
thats th lingo of a Green , playing your amatur games on this site fools no one
then your #317 was a reel loo loo , listing key Labor and Liberal polisys over last few years as if there’s no differense , when clearly there was even on that list !
well sunshine , you also left out workchoises ,
a subject EVERY genuinne swing voter does hav an opinion on as a key issue
Big Ship said he will NOT take notice of any more of your posts even bfore your abov silly posts , so will I
Well spotted Ron.
where is GG?
Oh yeah, Workchoices, that was an absolute turkey and really bad for the country.
I was disappointed that Labor did not rollback Workchoices all the way like they promised. Instead they kept the anti-union workplace entry rules and most of the unfair dismissal exemptions.
I did like that they kept the secret ballot for strikes provisions from Workchoices, since I favour secret ballots.
And I think I may be in favour of AWAs as long as no worker is disadvantaged (although it’s fair to say individuals in most industries have less bargaining power then their employers) – it’s a tricky issue.
Labor are better on worker rights
Seeing as you don’t have kids and therefore don’t care about the BER (a selfish and short-sighted point of view IMO) you’d therefore be strongly opposed to Abbott’s PPL scheme?
You’ll have to enlighten me as to what PPL stands for.
Also, looking back at the last dozen or so replies to my comments, they have all been playing the man not the ball. It’s pretty alienating.
coconaut, you are not of the ‘dessicated’ variety are you?
PPL is Paid Parental Leave policy
If you don’t know the differences between the Labor scheme now in operation vs what Abbott has promised then I suggest you look them up on the respective party web sites
Is JG doing a press conference or giving a speech somewhere?
Sky Noos is trying to tell us that JG is responsible for higher electricity prices because of the ETS being put off for 2 years. Umm, how long do the Libs plan to put off the ETS? 2015 isn’t it?
Gary. Therefore headlines should be Libes will be responsible for ETS also, but for longer?
Coco
I recognised your tag from afore
what is irking you about some responses?
Surely not peeps propensity to defend their chosen party?
A close study of the opinion polls will show this up for the BS statement it is.
They said on ABC radio this morning that the Governor General goes on holidays this Friday. If that’s true, then if an election is to be called for August, Gillard will have to visit her before then.
This is indeed poor.
Consistent with a recent Essential finding too.
Joe must be doing something right
*runs for cover*
That’s a novel twist.I well remember Tone telling us that the introduction of the ETS would raise the price of everything, including electricity.
Now, it seems, not having an ETS will do the same thing. Heads I win tails you lose.
Confessions @ 366
Do we know how long the GG is on holidays for?
Oh parental leave, right. Not really a policy area of much relevance to me (yet!).
Well, the Liberals did well to get a leave scheme out first – oppositions are usually policy adverse – and Labor had to scramble to catch up which I felt is a sign the resulting policy was going to rushed.
Luckily there was a large body of work on what a good parental leave scheme would like, so the resulting scheme is less random than most fast-tracked gov policies. It is a fairly solid policy I think.
From what I can tell, the Liberal scheme is more generous financially, but is funded by a small tax on the biggest 100(?) companies. Generally I prefer low taxes, however I prefer small business to big business so don’t mind the idea of heavier taxes at the very ultra top.
Since I like the idea of parents being there during the formative time of a child’s life, I like the Liberal scheme better on paper. However, I seriously doubt the capacity of Abbott to get the scheme through parliament, even if he wins. I think the Libs have over-extended themselves with this one. But I do like that it appears to be a generous scheme.
Unfortunately, I think the ALP have done the bare minimum so as to neutralise the issue and so the country will not have a big debate about the modern role of parenting, which is always fun.
confessions @ 366
I like the idea of Gillard approaching Bryce on a Bali beach sometime next week asking for a dissolution!
Obviously most of the dumb shits don’t even know what Labor did for them in saving the country from the worst of the GFC. They also don’t realise that if the Liberals had been in charge they would have done exactly the opposite of what was required and cost hundreds of thousands their jobs.
It won’t make any difference though. Gillard will wipe the floor with that economic genius Abbott. .
Interesting that the ABC are reporting Gillard had 3 things she had to fix before calling an election. The first two, RSPT and asylum seekers, have been dealt with and now only have an ETS policy left before she cantick them all off.
Well, I doubt their expectations are very high for an ETS given they think the other two items have been fixed.
It just goes to show how stupid the population is if they think having a press conference about nothing constitutes a problem solved.
What leave scheme? Surely you don’t mean Abbott’s random thought bubble from months ago that hasn’t popped up since because he realises how ridiculous it was?
i don’t, sorry.
Laocoon and Darn – the Libs have been out in every electorate spruiking the ‘Labor might have saved you but just look at the waste’. It’s had quite an impact in many places.
Kev thought he could just let the spruiking go through to the keeper because come election time the voters liked him too much to vote Abbott in. That was a very big mistake because I am hearing the Libs words from people I always thought could think through things pretty carefully. Their lips repeat ‘waste on Schools and insulation’ as a mantra. I hope Labor has some pretty good election stuff ready.
He’s staying out of sight.
Not an easy thing for him to do, but worth the effort apparently.
@Billy Blogs/373,
Hrm, Could be a number of things. Including stuff from the IT Sector (i.e. ISP Filtering).
I disagree. I think a Coalition government in charge at the time of the GFC would have done something very similar to what Labor did. They would have created a stimulus and praised the Howard/Costello surplus as the reason we were able to survive.
That’s why it was so hypocritical when Hockey and Joyce said they would have done it differently.
Exactly, gloryc – the same one that the Nationals have voted against and will not allow Abbott to introduce. It was set out at the recent Nationals conference so you might like to check it out Cocoanut.
In my line of work I speak to parents regularly about the school funding stimulus. On the whole it is seen positively, not negatively.
The MSM are a joke. They run stories just to fit their own agenda.
Look they were running the “Rudd is under pressure” stories for months and we all know they were a beat up.
No, I’m gunna get all my news and information directly in future from Labor media releases. At least you can rely on those media releases to presentthe honest truth.
How do you think Howard won 4 elections? And Hawke/Keating before him?
Massive gender gaps opening up in Nielsen:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2010/07/12/nielsen-galaxy-and-the-gender-gap/
Some of them are hardly surprising, but the way it happens consistently across all questions, including the “Best party to manage” responses adds some food for thought.
coconaut
What planet have you been residing on? The ALP’s parental leave had been two years in policy development. It was by no means rushed & everyone in the media & government circles knew it was coming.
The Rabbott tried to trump the ALP’s announcement with a thought bubble that Barnacle has vowed the Nationals will never allow if they win government.
See, these are the perceptions that the ALP have to battle against.
The fact that someone believes that the ALP was playing catch up is just pure unadulterated bulls*#t.
Gee, did I read that right?
There is hardly a whisker between approval & disapproval with males for Abbott. I thought his approval with males would be much higher.
Peter Brent on the current polls and Labor’s chances of winning the election.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/gillards_lead_not_enough/
If the GG is on holidays, the most senior state governor in the country becomes the Administrator with all the powers of the GG. I think the most senior Governor is Marie Bashir but she usually goes to Bayreuth this time of year.
Obviously not a great poll for Labor, but still in a winning position. If there was a Newspoll confirming this I think we’d have heard it by now, so this may be slightly low.
Maybe Labor are jsut managing expectations but if the Gillard CC policy announcement is only as suggested in the media there won’t be much of a bounce either.
BH
Yep…never give a sucker an even break is a wise approach
I thought their health ad was pretty good and to the point
Abbott will struggle to win the non-troglydite vote.
kakuru
I understand he is doing the Queensland coast this week; people are willing to pay good money to see him apparently…
http://www.whalewatchingqueensland.com.au/
Lao
Glen will be angry at you
gc – I know but among the oldies and those without kids the story is quite different. I went to a school opening recently and there was great enthusiasm everywhere. Parents, teachers and kids were rejoicing and the excitement was uplifting.
Went to a meeting with a lot of oldies a few nights later and they were rampant about the school hall. We need lots of families to counteract the oldies’ negativity which bores the pants off me.
I’ve not got a good reputation with many in my age group here. I can’t be bothered with all the whinging about kids being worse than we were, they all need to be walloped often, send them to do national service, etc. etc. It drives me to distraction cos I think most of the young people I come into contact with are smarter, better educated and as disciplined in their lives as we were. It’s just that the lives are different with all the technology – lucky devils. Wish it had been around when I was their age.
Yet you don’t give a hoot about the BER? Very inconsistent.
Dee at 385 shows this comment to be garbage
What the hell does that mean?
Ever thought about the resulting price increases that will be passed on by supermarket chains, banks etc to make up for the tax hike? Thought not.
Finally I have you nailed. You’re a Green.
Say hello to green Rebecca for me.
It’s sad to see that Peter Brent has gone over to the Dark Side.
Psephos, we all need to pay the bills.
BH. It is true that in school communities, there is appreciation and enthusiasm for new buildings, and despite what the opposition say, these buildings are either replacing buildings that are literally falling apart, or adding new infrastructure as required. As a parent of young people, I have found that they actually study harder and work harder, then my group ever did in my day. Something I am loathe to admit to my children, just in case they slacken off. As usual media beat ups have a part to play.
Abbott is in retreat
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/tony-abbott-to-only-turn-back-safe-asylum-seeker-boats/story-e6frgczf-1225890717436
Call me biased, but to me he seems to be talking total crap.
After linking through to the health advert on youtube, I found this ol’ classic:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMII_3_4Fr4&feature=related
*DING* Kevin Rudd: “I will stay the full term”
*BZZT* John Howard: “I won’t”
Gee, we’ll add that to the list of Rudd lies shall we.
It’s a few days old now, but no less relevant. Guy Rundle at Crikey’s The Stump:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/thestump/2010/07/01/dear-dummies-if-youre-not-using-the-labor-party-could-we-borrow-it-for-a-while/
Brent’s article is a good example of using leftish-sounding talk to assist the Libs. That’s presumably what The Australian is paying him to do. His message is “If you’re a vaguely leftish voter (like me, hint hint), it’s OK to vote Liberal because there’s really no difference.” This was PVO’s job previously, but PVO seems to have gone a bit feral on them – perhaps he really is a vaguely leftish person and Abbott finally found his gag reflex. Most people have one somewhere – Brent evidently doesn’t.
“A coalition government would rely on navy personnel on the spot to determine when it was possible to turn back boats.”
I’ll bet there are a few navy skippers who will be thrilled with that! Can see that it would be really good for an officers career to be under constant political pressure to make a decision to turn a boat around, then it sinks (for whatever reason quite possibly not under his/er control), and they carry the can for it.
I’d think that any officer with half a brain would not turn any of them around to avoid the safety of life at sea issues.
[ It’s sad to see that Peter Brent has gone over to the Dark Side.
}
So sad to see political debate in Australia reduced to the level of tribal football hooliganism.
So sad that its no longer okay to express an honestly held opinion, based on available data, without being vilified as "non-us".
So sad, that if you depart from the "true line", your motives are maligned, rather than your thesis debated.
Does Peter Brent not believe the ALP internal polling before Gillard took over? He seems to not even consider that in his analysis.
Darn – you’re biased.
The TPP vote is un-changed from when Rudd was knifed by Gillard. The ALP PV went up 2 weeks ago but has since come back to under 40%. This would have to concern Gillard given she’s still got a policy on asylum seekers and climate still to come.
Both these won’t win her any new votes, and only stands to lose votes to the Greens. Most of those lefty votes that went to the ALP were due to NO CC policy and a hard line on AS. They may have been happy to give Gillard a chance to soften her position on both to appease the left, but will be disappointed.
Essential Research: 55-45, up from 54-46. Both parties down one on the primary vote, Labor to 41 and Coalition to 38, and the Greens up two to 13, so rounding probably has a fair bit to do with the 2PP change.
Victoria – I thought I had to do a lot of work at school but my grandkids leave my lot for dead. Just looking through some of their work makes me feel optomistic about our future. There are a lot of bright kids out there and we’d all feel better working in decent buildings.
I loved the kid who told Abbott that her school needed a new library because the other one was ‘old’. That put him back in his box. Serves him right for turning up at what was obviously a Liberal school principal/Abbott lovefest.
Labor should show that clip in ads about the BER.
Darn – Agree with you re Mumble. Don’t bother to read him now cos we know how he has to write. He seems to have a bee in his bonnet re Kev being ousted. He and Thomas must have had a get together. Do they not like strong women?
Billy Blogs
In a nut shell:
Obviously Rudd might have lead Labor to victory but the attacks from the MSM would have been unrelenting.
Gillard will lead Labor to victory.
That’s the difference
Essential Research report.
So now that Gillard’s support has fallen back to roughly where Rudd’s was, should we conclude that Rudd was actually not the problem? I’m confused.
What an absolutely absurd and presumptuous over-simplification.
Yet he’s jumped ship to work for the very organisation, which together with their ABC, led the vicious media campaign against Kevin Rudd.
Peter Brent should not be criticised for writing for News Ltd. There are a number (even if a minority) of other good analysts and journalists who write for News.
Peter’s take on the problems Julia faces in taking on the leadership at this late stage is interesting. I think he’s right that Julia as PM loses a bit of the strength of incumbency. But I don’t think its a big factor. Maybe 0.5% to 1% of the vote. Her biggest concern has got to be the major gender differenitals showing up in Possum’s analysis of Neilsen.
One of the reasons she didn’t take the leadership in 2006, was concern that Australians (and in particular Australian men) were not ready to elect a ‘left-wing’ female as PM. She’s clearly got rid of the ‘left wing’ tag bogey, and I thought her periods as acting PM had got people comfortable with a female PM. But it looks as though I was wrong. The strategists are going to have to work on this issue, otherwise it could be a close election.
Tone’s worked out that if a boat sinks the Navy can take the responsiblity instead of him. He doesn’t want to get blamed for another SievX a la Howard.
Our Tone is not a very courageous sole. He’s all talk and no class.
Brent’s notion that the final 52% Newspoll was what brought Rudd down shows that he knows nothing about what actually happened, and that he’s just regurgitating the News Ltd line that Newspoll decides everything. (And that’s my answer to you, Peter. You don’t get to write for The Australian unless you serve The Australian’s purposes.) That Newspoll was supposed to bring Rudd down, but it turned out to be not bad enough to do so. In fact it nearly saved him. That’s why nothing happened at the Tuesday Caucus meeting. As I’ve said several times, what brought Rudd down was the ALP internal polling, some of which I saw, which showed Labor losing a string of key seats, on top of the fact that most of the ministry and Caucus were fed up to the back teeth with Rudd. Things then came to a head with the SMH article on Wednesday morning, and that was when Gillard decided to run. Once she did so, Rudd was cooked.
Except it hasn’t really. There is a marked difference between 33% and 39% as a primary
vote.
Rudd was a punching bag for a whole host of reasons (ending Howard’s political career being a significant one) and would have remained so for the rest of his time as leader. In 12 months Gillard might find herself as a media punching bag as well but in the shorter term she is a big plus to the government and to the Labor party. No need to be confused if you look at it with both eyes open.
BH
It behoves the MSM to hold Abbott to account over this. Searching questions and no let-offs with non-answers.
But don’t hold your breath!
It’s uncanny how as soon as previously independent thinkers are hired on the News Ltd payroll, they start to spout the Murdoch line. I’ve seen it time and time again over the years where journalists I’ve had some respect for have turned feral upon taking Rupert’s coin. I suppose you have to making a living somehow, but I think Peter Brent has damaged his own brand buy going in-house with that bunch.
What is wrong with turning around sea-worthy vessels?
We do it all the time with illegal Indonesian fishermen. No it’s not a hard decision to make, you make sure the boats not taking on large amounts of water and that the engine works then you send them on their way.
I wonder if essential being a computer based poll is closer to the mark as the people who are emailed are there dont have to catch up with them re phone and door stops re face to face, also they are younger and more switched on ( May be).
So could we be safe to say that the phone polls and this poll we may at least be able to add on a couple of points to the phone polls as after all its who you phone really.
HI Mr. Denmore i dont think we have seen you here for a while what is your feeling on the last couple of weeks
Pesphos at 416.
Where does Peter Brent say it was the final Rudd Newspoll that brought him down?
no read all the notes by william also now read Essential i would say that primary vote is very good so there can be and i have just ask william a margin for error
to the positive
Where is the VOICE OF REASON?
We are currently living in a ‘toxic’ election environment.
‘Saint” Kevin handled the GFC well, however his personal idiosyncrasies became a liability to the government and his overblown hyperbole created unreasonable expectations in the public. Sooner or later this had obvious consequences. It became ‘sooner’ because of the concerted efforts by the “Profiteers, the Gutter Press, and the ‘Opposition for oppositions sake’. With the elevation of “Slugger” Abbott to opposition leader the scene became increasingly more poisonous. In the absence of any real policy alternatives they resorted to the time-honoured tools of fear, smear and disinformation. It worked!
The ABC, as the taxpayer funded national broadcaster should have been the moderator in an ever-increasing noxious atmosphere. Unfortunately they still do not understand that, in the national interest, they have an obligation to re-invest into investigative journalism as well as addressing the ever-increasing illness of ‘political amnesia’. Lazy “he said, she said” reporting just isn’t good enough anymore in an environment of widespread simplistic and often blatantly biased headline driven “churnalism”
Again, I ask myself where is the VOICE OF REASON?
From Essential:
Most people think Abbott is a liar also on Workchoices (my faith in democracy goes up). Pretty fertile ground for the ALP
BH#408. “Labor should show that clip in ads about the BER”. Great idea!, especially the part where Abbott tries to ignore it was even said by the child. Quite funny really.
With the noble and quite courageous exception of Tim Dunlop, who stood up for himself very admirably.
Let’s see if we get “Abbott backflips on turning the boats back” headlines now.
the difference i think will be that Julia will give it back i think mr. Rudd should of done that no matter. i know i have read its not good to do that but isn’t that democracy in action to just tell it like it is.
Julia also speaks very clear and decisively i heard every word she said about timor and understood thats why i was tearing my hair out listening to the on and off stuff the msm where saying.
I think if we really want to know the place to go to may be is the gov web site and read transcripts of speeches
how long ago was that bb i dont know that i know of him
More likely than Peter Brent toeing the Murdoch line is that he has a mental note marked “lemming” attached to Julia Gillard.
and say so all of us now for many weeks i think he would bring it back with another name
So most of the country think so to.
BK – I think we’ll be able to count them on one hand. Scott Morrison telling porkies yesterday about Abbott’s ‘peaceful invasion’ was not mentioned very much but it should be. It seems now that Abbott’s ability to lie is equalled by Morrison’s.
Psephos – do you see the male vote a problem for Gillard. I thought Possum had the figures in the positive for Gillard as against Abbott.
???
Yep. IIRC there’s been at least one other poll which asked respondents about the likelihood of the Libs bringing back Workchoices, with similar ‘yes’ type results.
My Say, Peter Brent famously designated Labor MPs as “lemming” and “non-lemming” based on whether they supported Mark Latham for the leadership, which he foresaw at the time as a disaster.
Once the smugglers know that “seaworthy boats will be turned back”, they’ll make certain the boats are not seaworthy. When they are challenged by the RAN, they’ll scuttle, and the RAN will then be obliged to rescue the passengers. This is so transparently obvious I’m amazed Abbott is getting away with this crap. His policy is bunkum, even on its own terms.
The noun LEMMING has 1 sense:
1. any of various short-tailed furry-footed rodents of circumpolar distribution
Familiarity information: LEMMING used as a noun is very rare.
The responses on the AS in Essential seem a bit over the place:
- basically too soft (56%)
- Gillard approval (42%) disapproval (33%)
- who does better job: Labor (24%) Liberal (31%), doesnt matter/who knows (45%)
Conclusion, maybe, “I just wish this would just go away”??
A bit like the priest and Levite when they saw the bashing victim? I wonder what message Abbott took from the parable of the Good Samaritan yesterday? Hard to reconcile with letting AS drown in the Indian Ocean, methinks
Pseph – spot on.
I find it amazing that the media are writing their own narrative and twisting quotes from Labor, but will not ask a simple question such as “Mr Abbott, what happens to boats that are deemed to be unseaworthy? Do we turn them back?”
rodent Now thats familiar
And/or, the craft will be unseaworthy, sink before the RAN is even on the horizon, and drown the AS
Abbott policy: stand by and let AS drown
Psephos
But that comment from Brent does not imply that Brent thought the 52% Newspoll brought Rudd down. He was quite explicit it was the party that brought him down, which is also your view.
Absolutely. A man of principle.
The GG will leave Australia for Fromelles on Saturday and will be back next Wednesday, so if JG wants to call an election for Aug 21 or Aug 28 to give time for people to enrol, she must call on the GG before she leaves on Saturday.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/give-me-your-trust-gillard-20100712-1075g.html
This is Brent’s famous “lemmings” page.
http://www.mumble.com.au/federal/lemmings.htm
It’s not dated, but my memory is that it appeared AFTER Latham lost in 2004, not before, so it wasn’t as prophetic as some now believe. No doubt Brent did predict that Latham would lose, but he wasn’t Robinson Crusoe in that. My then employer, the great Danby, said on the day of Latham’s “Troops out by Xmas” interview, which was in March, that we would lose.
Anyway, this is all ancient history now. The roosters v lemmings split has faded from the collective memory as new and more exciting splits have come along.
William – he wasn’t the only one. Heaps of Labor supporters working the electorate foresaw the disaster. He was a bomb just waiting to go off – and he did. Gillard is no bomb and we won’t see Faulkner sitting in a corner with his head in his hands over Gillard.
Pseph mumbled
Clearly you all enjoy the prospect of opposition more. Secret internal polling as justification when there was a clear swing back to labor after the shock created when they cleared the deck for an election.
As for mumble, suck it up sunshine, Labor has got what they voted for.
Is this suggesting Gillard will not be at Fromelles herself, I wonder?
http://www.smh.com.au/national/give-me-your-trust-gillard-20100712-1075g.html
Laocoon
You may well have correctly read between the lines.
Psephos, you can see from this old Mumble page, covering the period when Latham assumed the leadership, that his “lemmings” routine went back to the beginning.
Anyone know if we’re getting a Newspoll tonight – just to complete the set?
Hang your head, Psephos!
I think Rudd could and would have survived both the public polls and the internal polls had his relations with nearly everybody in the ministry and the Caucus not become so toxic. That was entirely his own doing. On the other hand if he had been a clear winner in the polls they probably would have put up with him, until next year anyway. It was the combination of his poor management of Caucus and the dicey polling that proved fatal.
Whether he could or would have won the election is another matter.
A professionally-bankrupt, toxic, partisan media.
Peter Brent tells us we aren’t.
Thanks William, I stand corrected on lemmings.
Gillard’s speech today might have seemed like nothing, but if you listen to it she’s basically kicking off the campaign for Labor. She’ll meet the GG tomorrow I reckon.
Bring it on.
Under the law of the sea we cannot turn back a single boat ever.
L&C 122 Senate Monday, 8 February 2010
LEGAL AND CONSTITUTIONAL AFFAIRS
which you sighted this boat but surely you are able to tell me at what point you believed, or
you were given direction, that it was not your responsibility anymore.
Mr Carmody—It is a bit hard to talk about responsibility. Ultimately Border Protection
Command can only intercept vessels on the contiguous zone around Australia, which is about
20 nautical miles around Australian territory.
See, if they reach the continguous zone we have zero right to send them out into international waters under the law of the sea and if we try and send them to a third country after they ask for protection here it is a breach of the refugee convention article 33.
They are both disgusting but if Gillard really thinks beating up on refugees is a winner then she is a bigger fool than anyone guessed.
It’s interesting that Rudd never lost a skerrick of skin over them.
And how can Gillard claim to have a “heritage” in South Australia when she only came here as a 5 year old.
Can she go to the mallee and point out where her family have farmed since they were pioneers in 1908? Or to the small Barossa Town of Bethany and note that her family came here from Silesia in 1844?
How about to Long Plains in SA where the ancestors settled from Cornwall in the 1880′s before going to the Mallee?
What heritage, her heritage is about as long as Mike Rann’s, tell me again when he came here?
OK Rann spent 9 years in London, then went to New Zealand and only came here in 1977.
So much for his heritage.
Heritage is history, it is long time roots, it is the ability to point at ancestors head stones and point out their accomplishments.
My own family has been here since 1844, not five minutes.
“Heritage” what bullshit.
And I note the new dogwhistle this morning. Only the hard working and educated count.
It’s really interesting in one part of “Shitstorm” where Gillard explains that she got on so well with Rudd not because they were so different but because they were so much the same yet I couldn’t imagine her giving the sorry speech in a million years simply because she has no heritage in this country.
gloryconsequence@464
Well according to someone’s ABC it appears so:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/12/2951216.htm?section=justin
And what was it Bob McMullan said just a few weeks ago? Our national polling has a 5 in front, what is the point of changing leaders now?
Is that a quote from Carmody, or is it your opinion? In either case it’s not correct.
Versus Abbott, with no qualms about letting AS drown, without pity or mercy…he should lay off the execution analogies
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/12/2951216.htm?section=justin
At the risk of repeating myself, let me just say again, that in my opinion Gillard did not actually receive a honeymoon (Aside from the initial first few days euphoria of having a female PM.) What we instead saw was Gillard’s rise cancelling out Abbott’s honeymoon.
Make no mistake. What we see here are very strong numbers for Labor. Don’t let the 4 point margin fool you. Labor are in a solid position now. Going into the election campaign, if they play their cards right, they can have the opposition on the defensive and win big.
Not predicting that at the moment. But it does say a lot about Labor’s electoral position when the media outlets are referring to Labor’s second term, not as an “if” but a “when.”
For a second there I thought he was talking about the Murdoch press.
My biggest dilemma of the day – can I bring myself to watch the prize prat Pyne on QandA tonight?
Absolutely. Regardless of your views, 52-48 AHEAD going in to an election campaign as the incumbent is pretty big.
Well that’s very flattering, but it’s just the same old Labor Party actually. The one that Howard beat four times in a row.
I am very sorry to see some people here saying in effect that Peter Brent is writing what he is told to write. I don’t know him in person but from what I know of his writing over recent years I just do not believe it to be a fair accusation – or one that does credit to those making it. Wasn’t he one of those saying before the leadership change it wouldn’t happen because throwing away the weight of incumbency was a bad idea? So how does saying it again now make him unprincipled? I hope and think he will be proved wrong (for once) by events this time but that’s not the same at all as believing he writes to order. It’s almost like thinking someone could buy the Piping Shrike, or our host here, or (gasp) the Possum!
Note he doesn’t mention that the Opposition is backed by an utterly obliging media.
Hang on – wasn’t he, just last week, taking “credit” for Kevin Rudd’s scalp? What a fibber!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/12/2951216.htm?section=justin
PS: For those who have visited the site, did the ABC publish anything from Labor in that story?
So it’s blatantly obvious the campaign will be underway very soon. Gillard comes out today and talks positively. Abbott’s response? He brings up how mean the Labor Party were to get rid of Rudd. Goddammit. When he has to open his mouth the bloke is clueless. Let’s hope an official election announcement will see him forced to open it more often, with some actual questions.
gc – just leave his first comment out and you’ve got it right.
I don’t know how far back it goes, but there seems to be a tradition of calling elections on Sundays.
Amigo, I noticed our Ron has returned
Hope your weren’t talking about him!
hello Ron
OK at Kogarah hospital last week did a survey of one and she liked Kev at first but started to go off him but she said she couldn’t stand Julia. I didn’t ask about the Toned one and she didn’t mention him
Cabinet meeting tomorrow morning, announcement on CC in the arvo, off to see the GG on Friday, writs issued when GG gets back from France?
shepherdmarilyn 466
What purpose did your long-winded vitriolic tirade serve, except to demonstrate that you have a severe, unhealthy hatred of Labor? A few points:
- Where has Gillard said she is going to “turn back the boats.” That is a Coalition promise. Labor’s is to efficiently process genuine refugees, allow immigrants an opportunity to apply for a visa and deport illegal immigrants who have no valid claim. (a policy just about every nation has) As well as target selfish people smugglers who put refugees in danger just to make a profit. Of course in extremist la la land, where everything is viewed in a black/white dichotomy, I can understand how that is the same as “turning back the boats”
- I love how you resort to bigotry because you think it justifies your point. “Gillard is not a pureblood Australian, call the lynch mob!” As far as I am concerned, your comments are no different than those from some hick that wears a “f–k off! We’re full!” T-shirt!
- How the hell does Mike Rann fit into this argument? He is a state premier. Nothing to do with Gillard and her policies. Of course, you were just scraping for examples to support your broad, racist attack and justify your unending hatred of the ALP (You forgot Kenneally by the way – she’s another of your “not real” Australians!)
- It is an anti-Labor tirade, because the party that wants to “turn back the boats” doesn’t even warrant a mention, nor does Tony Abbott or any of the foreign born coalition members get a mention in your hate speech.
By the way, I have direct ancestors who came on the Buffalo, so I am one of your “pure blood” South Australians and think your comment is crap.
I think Labor will be just a little nervous behind the scenes over JGillard’s ability to be the front man and run an election campaign without faltering in some significant way.
Her handling of the AS affair puts doubts into some people’s minds and if she stuffs up with her CC policy in a similar way the Lib’s could start to make hay over her competency to lead. And especially if the draw comparisons between her and Rudd. People know Rudd was in total control of things, they assumed too much so. A JGillard struggling with the leadership would get hit by any comparison.
And as I have noted elsewhere now that the smear campaign against Rudd has started to wane he will be able to be seen in a clearer list prejudiced light. The worst thing then for JGillard would be for pictures of a smiling Rudd in the newspapers doing this or that thing. A subconcious comparison would be made and it wouldn’t be good for Gillard, especially if she makes a meal out of the CC policy.
So her CC policy will have to be substantial, real, no holes in it and her and her team need to be able to sell it in a consistent fashion. The Lib’s will now be looking to create and issue out of her competency to lead because of her first up bungle.
Curious that the polls put the Libs ahead as best economic managers. Rudd was basically the face of the GFC rescue and with him out of the picture Labor will be seen just a little bit weaker. A stock market tumble overseas and here would create some worry and may help the libs cause.
JGillard’s grab of power is now seeming a bit shallow, she will breath a sigh of relief when she gets over the line.
Great. Positivity gets you support. Indignity, especially when confected, turns voters off you. I know who would win out of Gillard and Abbott, if their attitudes here were the themes!
Silly ol Rhiannon, she should have resigned weeks ago.
Seriously if Abbott wants to play the indignant victim card, he does so at his own peril.
Quiz: Gillard was born in Wales, Abbott in London (of Australian parents): When was the last federal election fought between two party leaders who were not born in Australia?
Come on TP – don’t be coy. Admit it – you hope Abbott leads the Libs to an historic victory, right?
Meanwhile in Fantasyland:
1913
Andrew Fisher (Scotland) v Joseph Cook (England)
It’s correct under the law that we cannot send anyone to a third country once they have asked for asylum here.
In a high court decision called NAGV and NAGW in 2005 the government argued that a Russian Jewish couple who were found to be refugees and denied because they could have gone to Israel should be denied our protection.
The high court said that was complete bunkum – once anyone has made a claim in Australia it is a breach of that law to send them to any other country.
How completely ridiculous it would be if all 147 signatories to the refugee convention who have domestic laws like ours sent “their” asylum seekers to other countries.
We would have them pinging around like ping pong balls.
Me 491
Oops! That should be 1914
Nearly. They fought a second election in 1914.
Ru
But But but
Lee is a green, they are purer than the driven snow
Someone has set her up
Yep. See post 493
Ladies and Gentlemen – Mr Tony Abbott
Re Calling an Election:
Mike Rann was lauding her heritage as a South Australian – he has been a South Australian himself since 1977 of course after being born and raised in London from 1953 – 1962 when he went to New Zealand and didn’t come here until his brother’s wedding in 1977, then he came back and got a job with Don Dunstan.
He has not heritage in SA before 5 minutes ago and nor has Gillard. Or Matthias Corman, or Penny Wong, or Chris Evans, or Brendan O’Connor, or Doug Cameron, or another 20 odd MP’s.
1. There is no such thing as “asylum” under Australian law. There is only refugee status.
2. No-one has refugee status until we grant it to them.
3. People arriving in boats do not have refugee status, although they have the right to apply for it.
4. Article 33 refers to sending refugees back to the country in which they were being persecuted, not to a transit country in which they were not being persecuted.
5. The case you refer to is not relevant to this situation, because it refers to people who had been granted refugee status.
6. Returning boat arrivals to Indonesia (or sending them to East Timor) is not “refoulement” under article 33 because (a) they are not refugees unless we say they are, and (b) they are not being returned to their country of origin.
Gusface 495
Hehehe!
She fights tha man! They is all scared of her!
SMH polls usually favour Labor I thought? What’s going on here? Have the young Fibs deserted the OO for Fairfax?
yeah I know online polls are bullbutter. just stirring the pot
Who do you trust more?
Julia Gillard 32%
Tony Abbot 38%
Both equally 1%
Don’t trust either 29%
Total votes: 4403.
http://www.smh.com.au/polls/trust-and-julia-gillard/20100712-1076q.html#poll
Many of whom have served their country/state well!
Immigrants aren’t bad people, you know. You don’t need to be a “pure blood” to be a good servant of the nation. Alexander Downer is a pure blood and I can’t think of a more selfish waste.
TSOP
I reckon someone has impersonated her and done all these norty things
Afterall the real Lee was feeding the fairies at the bottom of the garden, so in no way could she be held responsible.
The voters must know the facts!
vera 502
The fact that an online poll does favour the coalition 66-34 does not look good for Abbott! Liberals have too much time on their hands, if they can’t skew this poll, what is going on?
vera: It’s nice to see you again. Hope you are well.
Speaking as a 6th generation Australian of pure British descent, I for one welcome our new foreign-born overlords. (With the possible exception of Eric Abetz.)
thanks confessions
doing OK, been for more tests in Sydney, probably will be having liver op soon.
Gusface 504
Well according to the Green party manifesto, or more particularly the book known as the Gospel of Bob (12-17)
Lee can’t have done any wrong, it was all a part of the great scheme to save the world.
On the gender gap thingy, will it get closer during an election campaign as one partner influences the others view?
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2010/s2951060.htm
Understatement or what!
Marilyn – exactly do you need an SA heritage to be a pollie? My mob came over sent 1 son out in 1835 to scout SA – he went back. They bought huge parcel of land and from Willm IV and boated to SA in early 1837.
I moved to NSW in the early 80s. Does that mean I have no affiliation with one State over the other. It’s madness. We’re all Aussies but many of us learnt our childhood values in different States or countries to where we live now. It’s all irrelevant when we’re grown up to be big people.
Today’s factoid: Labor has never lost a federal election held in winter.
“If you vote for Tony Abbott, you will never have sex again!”
TSOP
But Bob Brown has said that Lee should resign and she’s said she shouldn’t.
So one of them has to be fallible!!!
What a dilemna for the pure at heart…
TSOP 514
A lovely American lady I once worked with (who hadn’t been naturalised) dropped her spouse off at a polling booth in Brighton.
He was half way across the road when she wound down the driver’s side window and yelled, “If you vote for that B*^%& Kennett, you’ll never have sex with me again!”
Nice to see your cheery mooey on PB again – hope it goes well.
Their ABC has been dumbed down of late so they got to talk s-l-o-w-l-y to their customers
That, my friend, is what is known as the omnipotence paradox.
Either that, or just a plain old religious schism!
Explains a lot I think.
Mmmmmmmm………………
Eric Abetz (born 25 January 1958 in Stuttgart, West Germany),
Abetz is the great-nephew of SS-Brigadeführer Otto Abetz, Nazi German ambassador to Vichy France from 1940 to 1944. [2]
vera
Cruel but true
Auntie is becoming more senile with every passing day
Hi BH, will email you after I see the docs on thursday.
Hey vera.
Nazi allusions are not allowed.
Unless you are a right winger desperate for a smear against the left/Labor…
hows things rua?
vera: I hope everything goes well for you, and you are back fighting fit in no time!
Interesting that Abbott re-released his mental health policy again today and that it was ignored by the press.
Despite what TP says, Gillard is setting the media agenda.
Also a bit early for Godwin’s law.
I don’t like Abetz one bit, but I think holding his relatives against him is unfair. Otto Abetz died before Eric was born.
Fine, Fentanyl and VB make a great combo.
Vera – goodo, but meanwhile you might get a kick out of seeing John Elliott on Q&A tonight!! I wonder how much slurring he’ll do – no need to worry about how much bagging of Labor he’ll do cos that’s given.
A Winter election won’t do Tone any favours. I’ve heard cold is supposed to cause shrinkage. Not a good look for the budgie wearing one
According to George Castanza, it does.
Actually, it does…
BH Elliot’s Blues got a hiding yesterday he-he. so he might be in a bad mood.
Heritage may a**, what does that infuse you with some special kind of pixie magic? And Isn’t that some variation on the Cronulla riot theme of “we grew here you flew here”?
Also just on a small point, “not in a million years” would give scope for significantly more heritage than anyone in Australia currently has….just sayin.
he, he, haa, haa, he ha LOL
Jon@535
Note how her beloved Greens want an open slather AS policy, yet these same people or indeed any immigrant cannot be PM.
Double Standards, No ?
I would not go so far as Psephos as yet in calling Mumble a sellout to the darkside at News Ltd, but I do take issue with Mr. Brent’s flawed analysis in today’s Australian newspaper.
It is nonsense, in my view, to assert, as Mr. Brent has done, that the ALP ‘threw away’ the benefits of incumbency – what evidence supports this claim? This idea is untested, and nothing more than sophistry, in my opinion.
He further claims that the current ‘clearing the decks’ narrative (which in my view exactly describes what is occurring, but also is exactly what was needed, and is entirely understood by the electorate as a natural precursor to the election campaign) somehow makes Julia Gillard look ‘un-Prime Ministerial’ and therefore by some unknown mechanism renders the idea of PM Abbott less scary? Come again?
It’s all utter nonsense, in my judgement, and is not in any way borne out by any of the published opinion polling facts, nor the historical record of previous election campaigns and how they play out.
52% to 48% in both Galaxy and Nielsen, 55% to 45% in Essential and 56.5% to 43.5% in Morgan all to the ALP, with PM Gillard streets ahead of Tony Abbott in the preferred PM stakes, and all the betting money flowing hard towards the ALP.
Mumble is a chorus of one if he thinks that this is ‘not enough.’
Mumble’s
Is crap and he should know better, the result was 44-42 but he uses the figure with the Greens included and omits them.
52 – 48 ? Pm Swan.
Will the Jchild make it to the election ?
Psephos, if we are in the mood for factoids today, has there been a contest between a PM with a University of Melbourne law degree and an opposition leader with one from the University of Sydney in the period between Menzies v Evatt and this one? Or before?
Earlkier Skynews ticker was saying Labor leads Coalition 52/42
guess it’s hard to get good staff nowadays, or at least ones who can add up to 100
Now it is just saying Labor has slipped to 52%
rua sounds like a powerful cocktail you got yourself there.
Psephos
No, the imposition of ones heritage is only relevant if you are an ALP minister.
I seem to recall only weeks ago the broo haa about Rudd’s ancestors, which, was the second time in 3 years that the story got a run as some indication of Rudd’s character.
Thomas Paine @ 484
Your post might make some sense if the word ‘Abbott’ was substituted for the word ‘Gillard’ all the way through.
Vera- he’ll still be celebrating the loss!!!
Anyone who doubts the movement to replace Rudd should note the repoting of today’s polls. Herald Sun ran a banner on front page that public back Gillard on boats, and the age ran a headline about a “dip” in support , with a by-line about the strong PPM lead for Gillard. ABC news ran with govt has election winning lead and the OO online Labor ahead in the polls.
Gillard is getting far more positive coverage by the MSM
Just on the question of Gillard’s honeymoon – she didn’t have one, and I don’t think it has anything to do with cancelling out Abbott’s honeymoon period. I just think that we’re too close to an election being called for something like that to happen. People have already started to focus themselves on who they’re really going to vote for (not just what they’re going to say to a pollster). The removal of Rudd concentrated everyone’s mind quite emphatically. Besides, if changing leaders always gave you an immediate boost in the polls, everyone would change leaders just prior to calling an election.
Interesting to see the Coalition go up in polling estimation as economic managers. Considering they’ve kept their mouths shut on the issue for a while now. On that basis, the best thing Abbott can do if the election is called tomorrow is go on a six week bike ride.
Thomas Paine
Thomas, all you need do is ask yourself. Do you want a Rabbott government or not?
You are smarting over Rudd’s demise and losing sight of the big picture.
BigShip – there might be something in that. Jamie Briggs was very, very glum on Sky Agenda this morning and not his usual bombastic, smart ars.d self. I haven’t seen him looking like that since Tone took over the party.
BK might have his ear close to the ground to know if there is something going on in Mayo. I hope Labor is preferencing the Greens and vice versa.
Just read Brent’s article. What is that bloke on?
Ragvertiser front page main story is some netball crap, followed by a smaller headline “PM’s support slips despite tough stance”
I am surprised there were no spelling errors…
Bob Brown was on radio again today lamenting the 29% company tax cut under the MRRT deal, essentially saying that small business was paying for the concessions to the big miners. The interviewer allowed it pass, obviously unaware that the Greens policy is to *raise* company tax to 33%.
Thomas is itching to see Gillard fail. Sad really.
So Brent is telling us a 52/48 LEAD is not enough. When was the last time a government had this lead going into an election, and what was the outcome. BTW he was a crap blogger at Mumble, and is just as crap at News Ltd.
Sorry BH but I can’t help you there. But, hell, wouldn’t it be lovely if Briggs got his come uppance.
Several years ago, as a result of living near volatile electoral boundaries I was in Mayo the time Downer got the fright of his life from the Democrats. Now THAT was delicious.
Conclusion, the punters like Gillard, but they think Labor are crap at handling the boatpeople.
I’m sure the left wished this issue would “just go away” because they want an open door policy and don’t want anybody to do anything about this problem.
BK – the Downer fright was delicious and so nearly came off. I thought you were in Mayo and I was feeling quite pleased for you this morning when I saw Briggs. The change in him was really obvious. I wondered if he’d had some bad seat polling.
Abbott backflip with half pike http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/12/2951262.htm?section=justin
BH
I AM in Mayo as a result of shifting into the hills from Fagstaff Hill at the start of the year.
Fagstaff = Flagstaff
I must have had Downer on my mind!
Let’s get this election happening! We’re in a plum position at last. Abbott looks to be “Lathaming” in support!
Enjoy this optimism while it lasts, during election campaigns I’m neither optimistic nor pessimistic. I will just have my mind on winning. I will also piss a lot of people off by being the Devil’s advocate to consensus opinion on how well each side is doing – so be prepared. (Although I will be on here less)
BK
You must not be far away from the province of Evans-Remondville. Lucky you.
Pebbles
Don’t rough me up too much, please!
Actually just safely out of their range (Mount Torrens).
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/12/2951216.htm
Governor General delays holiday
Psephos your accusation against Peter Bret is outrageous, especially coming from a paid Labor hack who has completely done a U-turn coming out with ‘insights’ about how mean Rudd was that I could have read in the Murdoch press months ago.
If you had any familiarity with what Brent has written before he joined The Australian re what he thinks of the ‘Lemmings’ like Gillard, you would know wat he is saying now is completely consistent with what he has said before.
Yep. It’s on.
I love the smell of polly-bludging in the morning.
So are AS’s still part of the story?… from the ABC-
“Turning back asylum boats not always practical: Abbott”
Well said TPS. Methinks there is some jealousy going around PB about Peter Brent’s success in getting signed up with The Australian. The sad, lonely types here on Poll Bludger used to view him as someone on their own sad little level, but now that he has achieved something good for himself the knives have come out. Sad.
Now, now. We don’t want to claim either him or Pyne. Not all upper-class twits from Adelaide are gay, you know.
Fair enough Psephos
Well, there is no good news for the Coalition in that last Essential poll.
I really hope that Juila G goes to see the GG this week, announces the election date, and then has the writs issued after the GG gets back from France.
I’d laugh if the Govt then runs a blitz advertising campaign during that week urging people to hurry up and enroll to vote since the rolls close the day the writs are issued.
Would be a nice two fingered type of gesture to Abboots rabble. And what would Abboot have to say about it? If he says anything at all it just draws attention to the fact that his nasty mob set up the early closing of the rolls in the first place because they thought it would suit them politically.
There will certainly be 3 or 4 days between the announcement and the writs, to allow all those lazy 18yos to enrol.
In the Nielsen poll run over the weekend, respondent allocated preferences were flowing 76% to the ALP, pretty close to the 81% allocation coming from the Morgan poll last week that converted to respondent allocation from 2007 election actuals of 80% to the ALP.
More evidence, if that was needed, that Possum and Williams’ recent analysis of how preferences may flow close to what occured in 2007, ie: 80%, or pretty close to it, to the ALP seems to be supported by real world polling.
In addition, the analysis of approval/disapproval from the Nielsen and Galaxy results shows that the disapproval % of Tony Abbott is almost identical for ALP and Green voters.
Get used to it, crypto conservatives wearing Green facepaint … your dreams of vast preference flows above 30% to 40% to the Coalition from ‘doctor’s wives’ and other hitherto hidden Greens ain’t gonna happen in this world, or the next.
I haven’t said that Brent has changed what he says because he has joined The Australian, or that he doesn’t believe what he is saying, or that he is saying what they tell him to say. I said that The Australian is now paying him to say what he says, and the only reason they pay anyone to say anything is because it suits their political agenda.
Love the Terror’s spin on Galaxy.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/voters-punish-pm-for-boat-bungle/story-e6freuy9-1225890465176
vera
Posted Monday, July 12, 2010 at 2:44 pm | Permalink
“Hmmm, i see that the lunatic is back. Bilbo must be watching the full moon also
Amigo, I noticed our Ron has returned
Hope your weren’t talking about him!
hello Ron
”
G’day amigo Vera
actualy i got sick of th superiority arrogant Elitist lot treating th 80% of australians living in suburbs insulting and calling thems as Bogans without a proper challenge
So I’ve officialy declared I’m a Bogan and proud of it , and each time they munch there red Ports saying Bogan I’ll just zap them as elitists smug snouts
Bilbo – Update 3
line per cent continue to think
you have a bad tag.
Ta
Actually The Big Ship, Greens weren’t the only one pushing that story. There were quite a few Labor supporters here arguing that Rudd’s 2PP wasn’t ‘real’ because those Green preferences might not go to Labor but to the Libs. If that’s not true then the leadership change has only produced a 1-2pts movement, hardly a ‘bounce’.
TPS
Wasn’t the last pre Gillard Neilson 47-53 now it is 52-48? The Gillard bounce is real.
Not to mention renters who’ve yet to update their enrollments, plus new arrivals.
All those Greens/Labor voters with their progressive preferences. How that will mess with the Liberals’ heads!
Bogan is such a broad term. What is a bogan?
I always took bogan to mean people like my selfish former neighbours who trash their yard, have 80 kids, rev their cars up at any time of day or night followed by burning their tires down the street and dragging their domestic disputes out in the open. Not to mention the socially draconian philosophies that they adhere to.
I am informed that the term “bogan” is now so broad, that it means anybody you don’t agree with or want to be associated with…
This is always the period of maximum temptation for Liberals and Greens, because it’s overwhelmingly in the tactical interests of both parties to do a deal. The Libs want preferences against Labor in the marginal seats, and the Greens want preferences against Labor in the Senate. Each has something the other wants. Both know that a preference deal would benefit both and harm neither, in purely electoral terms. But neither has been willing, so far, to run the political risks involved. Most Liberal voters would preference the Greens if told to do so. But many Green voters would not preference the Libs even if the Greens told them to do so, and some would stop voting Green altogether. The Libs fear that the Greens would not or could not keep their end of a bargain. The Greens fear that they would lose a lot of votes if they recommended preferencing the Libs. But the electoral arithmetic is so compelling that the temptation will always be there.
I think the “The Libs aren’t that bad/no difference” and “we still haven’t decided who, if anyone, will earn our preferences” rhetoric that you see from the Greens is often motivated by shaking a stick at Labor and attempting to remind us not to take their support for granted. I dunno. As I said the other night. It’s not the Greens I am concerned about now.
ruawake, I think selectively picking out one outlying Nielsen poll is about as useful as picking out one post-Gillard Morgan showing a movement against Labor. As William said above, the trend is that Gillard appears to have boosted Labor by under 2%.
Psephos I’ll take it that’s only what you were implying, I am always willing to think the best of people. Actually, Brent’s argument that Rudd’s replacement was a mistake was quite against Murdoch’s agenda that had very much been pushing Gillard over Rudd.
Adam
“But many Green voters would not preference the Libs even if the Greens told them to do so…”
on Stats , labor gets around 75% of Greens prefs when there is NO HTV card , and 77% when there is a split ticket HTV
so your coment is absolute correct Green voters take virtual no notise of Greens Party directions….per stats ….simple because cause they “left’ voters in th first place
The Piping Shrike @ 577
The polling phenomenon we see at work here is the Green primary moving up and down a bit over the last 3 weeks, currrently hovering around 13%, but down as low as 8% recently in some polling, and this is to be expected as Julia Gillard moves through the issues deemed to be a ‘problem’ in need of a fix before, or during the election campaign.
If, as is expected, we see some announcements from PM Gillard (perhaps substantive ones) about Climate Change initiatives during this week, then we can expect to see some of that Green vote drift back to the ALP in the next couple of weeks, especially if the election date is also announced soon – the nominated date will have a sobering effect on all voters, and start to concentrate many (most) of the electorate who do not engage in the voting process until the campaign is underway.
I am prepared to call the Green primary vote by next week’s Newspoll and Essential Report (the known polls due out early next week) as about 10%, maybe 11%, and by the week after progressing down to about 8% on Election Day, 9% if they poll very well.
Bogan is a word elite people apply to non-elite people. Broadly it refers to the non-ethnic working-class. The ethnic working-class is cool for elite people, but the non-ethnic (ie, Anglo-Irish) working-class is not cool. They didn’t go to university, they don’t read The Age. They dress badly, they listen to uncool music, they eat junk food, they watch junk TV. They smoke, ffs. They tend to have their domestic disputes in public and they call their children boganish names like Kylie and Tracey.
The law is that, preference deals must be done in the Senate, however…
“Senator Brown said…The Greens would not trade policies for preferences, he said. “If you vote Green, then the option of where you put your preferences is your own, it shouldn’t be dictated by any party, including the Greens,…”
Apart from Chris Pyne, who else to appear on Q&A?
Ron my amigo I like things Bogan
Bogan moths and bougainvillea to name a couple
586
you didn’t mention that they wear moccies and tracky daks
Psephos
What is an “elite”? Who decides who are elites? Are union officials making six figure salaries elites? Or are they bogans? Are there any other categories? Just keen to learn
If The Australian promoted Gillard over Rudd, it was because they thought that was the best way to destabilise Labor. Now they’ll push Rudd over Gillard, or think of some other tactic. The Australian doesn’t care who leads Labor, so long as Labor loses.
I do too. But I am also of the university educated, social liberal, “drink wine with French names” group. I am a self contradiction!!!
Psephos. Were OO and others really expecting Labor to knock off Rudd prior to election?
Brumby announced details of the Victorian Regional Rail Link today:
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/houses-to-go-for-new-regional-rail-link-20100712-107b1.html
It is a good plan, and will improve rail services both to western Melbourne and to regions. It is also a good use of the stimulus money. The opposition shoudl be asked whether they will commit to funding it being completed if they win office (since they opposed the funds in the Senate).
(592) Totally agree with you there, Psephos! That’s what I was thinking at the time Rudd was being undermined. Also of course, Rudd’s popularity drove the Bolts and Ackermans up the wall. Anyway, they got what they wanted. I wonder what they’ll want now? They are greedy buggers.
victoria – John Elliott, Senator Scott Ludlum, Lenore Taylor, Chris Evans and a Judge whose name I’ve forgotten – sorry.
There is an enormous literature on the sociology of elites. As a post-Marxist I find elite theory a much more useful way of describing and understanding society than class theory. Marxists describe a ruling class in purely economic terms – you belong to the ruling class if you own or manage the means of production. But an elite is wider than a class, although there is an obvious overlap between a ruling class and a ruling elite. It describes a group of people who have a common set of values and a common vocabulary, who have a common educational and cultural experience, and who share a common expectation of success, of privilege and of power, not just in the economy, but through all the institutions of society and culture.
Absolutely. It’s clear they wanted Gillard to challenge Rudd and the latter to barely survive the partyroom vote, just so they could push a “divided government” and “Gillard waiting to pounce again” meme. Instead they have a more stable, more energetic government.
Talk about a Pyrrhic victory for those who sought to undermine Rudd…
Shrike – we know what they want. They want to knock off the ABC for the Asia Pacific broadcasting rights thingy. To get that they have to get rid of Labor I reckon.
Watch them beat up beautifully on Labor over the next month or so.
BH. Thanks for details.
Guess how this will be reported:
Poor Greg Hunt, this thought bubble did not even last a few hours before Abbott slapped him down.
Bad news politically for Labor.
513
The ALP has never called a House only election and of the 6 called they have won 2 but only lasted less than three years in each case. The other 4 were Coalition victories.
Of the 6 DD elections there have been 4 ALP victories to 2 Coalition victories but 3 out of 6 have been called by Coalition PMs and one by a Commonwealth Liberal Party PM to 2 by an ALP PM. There have been 2 sitting majority governments defeated, 3 majority governments re-elected and the 1975 election.
Of the 27 House and half-Senate elections since 1910 (including 1910 and both expansions of the Parliament where 7 Senators were elected ( electing 70% and 66.67 of the Senate respectively)) there have been 8 ALP Victories, 1 Commonwealth Liberal Party victory, 2 Nationalist victories, 16 coalition victories and a hung parliament where the Coalition was kept in for a year by independents but then dumped in favour of the ALP. There have been 5 changes of government at such elections and they were 1 Nationalist victory, 2 ALP victories and 3 Coalition victories.
It will be basically ignored, Gilard will announce stuff tomorrow and the media train will roll on to the next station.
Gillard has removed AS as an election issue, the press know this and will be onto the next “big issue”.
Not really, JG said that was not the only place they’ll be looking at.
ruawake – you’re in la la land.
ruawake 606
Yep. We clearly have taken the bad medicine that is the AS issue and got out relatively unharmed.
All along it appears that the people just wanted to see the ALP actually care about the issue and not just talk down to them on it. (Not my opinion, but the public’s perception)
The evening news will be the ultimate litmus of whether or not something is going to hurt the gov, not the OO, other rags or ABC online.
I often am, but not on this.
“Elite” is a name usually applied as derogatory term by otherwise well educated and socially advantaged people desperately seeking to appear like they give a crap about “popular culture” when everyone knows they don’t and really wouldn’t know a blue collar worker if one bit them on the a**.
Haha. OK. Opinion divided on whether this will appear as a headliner in the news tonight/tomorrow… my bet is that it will (headline of political stories, not all news)
One day wonder – chip wrapper the next
Does this mean East Timor option off the table?
gloryconsequence
AS as an issue will die tomorrow, I am willing to bet your testicles on it.
Julia Gillard has certainly galvanised female voters in Australia.
Consider the following:
The Nielsen poll comparing the last poll under Kevin Rudd (June 3-5) to the most recent poll under Julia Gillard (July 8-10), shows that the two party preferred voting intention of males has increased by 1.5% towards the ALP to be at 49.6%, but with females it has increased by 5.1% to be at 54.8%.
Today’s Nielsen also shows the following:
Males rate Gillard as the preferred prime minister by 53% to 39%, a 14 point lead, whereas females rate Gillard as the preferred prime minister by 59% to 31%, a 28 point lead.
On prime minister approval rates, males give Gillard a 14% net approval, 49% approve to 35% disapprove, whereas females give her a 29% net approval, 58% approve to 29% disapprove.
On opposition leader approval rates, males give Tony Abbott a (-2%) net approval, 46% approve to 48% disapprove, whereas females give him a (-13%) net approval, 40% approve to 53% disapprove.
A clear gender distinction. These sisters are doin’ it for themselves.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTa2DEuHzdA
Tables here:
http://ozforums.com.au/forums/index.php/topic,7019.0.html
ruawake – my balls are off the table
Will be interesting to see what happens atleast.
OK Adam – what’s the ALP internal polling look like?
The government are looking in control of the narrative, that’s what is important. Without the inertia being on Abbott’s side, he is dead in the water.
I don’t use it as a derogatory term, I use it as a social descriptor. My own background and education is pure elite. But I do object to unconscious elite snobbery such as describing non-elite people as bogans and rednecks, and deriding their legitimate economic concerns as evidence of racism and other thought-crimes.
The poll after the 24th June was that a very small sample from memory and i am wondering where most of this small sample came from, but no mention of that in the article well not that i saw.
Greg Barnes complaining about Julia efforts asking a small country like timor to take refugees but then goes on to say that wtte abbotts policy is dreadful wtte.
So i would like to know just what Barnes would do.
But at least we have some one whose saying that abbott policy is very poor.
Don’t hold your breath for an answer there. Internal polling stays internal for a reason.
Video sed taceo.
Didn’t you notice the wink????
glory
The thing is Abbott cannot expalin his turn back the boats line, so he will avoid the issue. He may as well put Morrison back in the cupboard.
He tried Health today but could ot get any traction, so what next. I expect a Green Army presser tomorrow to gazump Julia. Good luck Tone.
Let me guess, see and shut up?
Oh there is too. Sorry, my connection is running a bit slow at the moment. The wink seriously did not appear when I first read your post.
“I see and say nothing!”
Unless certain people in the ALP find it is to their advantage in leaking to media outlets like News Limited.
Even then, it’s something they hesitate to do. Also, internal polling is a ‘need to know’ type thing, to minimise the chances of moles leaking it. So even if somebody works for a politician, they may never see the internal polling.
In that case it is video sed non credo.
Rudd vs. Gillard much of a muchness, she is more rightwing than Rudd on some issues but a slightly more left-wing on others, overthrowing Rudd looked like an exercise in small-group hysteria but maybe the votes were falling in a magical way. But why o why do Labor partisans carry on this site like they were in the Comintern in 1937? The Greens and Peter Brent are agents of the Liberals just like how Trotsky started by doubting Stalin and inevitably ended as an agent of the Nazis etc. etc.
“But why o why do Labor partisans carry on this site like they were in the Comintern in 1937?”
More like Cultural Revolution 1967 sometimes!
He did no such thing. Trotsky was a fervent opponent of fascism and opposed Stalin’s early peace agreements with Hitler.
The PM is launching Hawke’s bioat the moment.
http://www.abc.net.au/streaming/abc-video2.asx
oops! Sorry, I should read your post properly, you were saying that the claim is just as valid as the Peter Brent claim. Sorry.
‘Cause Labor was a political party in 1937?
launching his bio
not launching his boat!
“My own background and education is pure elite. ”
no problam there
ditto Ricky Ponting , he is an elite sportsman
but whether one is an elitist as well is diferent
Gosh I haven’t heard that one for a while. Geoff, how are things in 1952?
Much like Bogan only in reverse? I fail to see how that is any different Adam.
Both Bogan and Redneck are social descriptors for those of a lower socioeconomic background are they not?
So you’re saying it’s OK if you do in a conscious state just not if you have been beaten unconscious outside a Mcdonalds in Logan by a clan of ute driving Bogans?
I think I understand, and shall refrain while sipping my caviar latte from subconscious snobbery so’s not to offend
When the Rudd revolution prevails, we will remember who has been loyal!
Surely one must see the irony of calling those who you look down on, and think are worse than you “elitists”
Agree Geoff. Comrade Brent has clearly shown his renogade tendencies and sympathies with crypto-fascist bourgeois media outlets that now subsidise his decadent lifestyle by daring to suggest that talking up asylum seekers may not be good tacics for Labor, as is diluting the incumbency factor from their re-election. He should be banished (if he was here).
Come the revolution, my back will be the first against the wall. I have made peace with this fact.
Oh,oh. It loks like the Mount Hagen Solution is back on the table:
http://www.smh.com.au/national/east-timor-rejects-gillard-plan-20100712-107p5.html
Bogans and Rednecks vote and there are plenty of them. Rudd lost quite a few with his Ciggies and Bundy & Cola taxes. Probably more than he won in the elite anti-smoking wowsers clique.
Psephos:
I think you should explain to the others just how small the 10% of the vote that the Greens get really is.
Could it be said that Peter Brent has become a capitalist running dog?
It’s THIS small.
Hey Psephos – next time your lot leaks “internal polling”, tell them to try and not overcook it to the point it looks ridiculous.
The Adelaide ‘result’ was laugh out loud material, no matter which way you slice your demographics.
“I think you should explain to the others just how small the 10% of the vote that the Greens get really is.”
when was 90% anti Green not a massive majority not suporting th Greens
It’s not the size of the vote that counts, it’s how well you use it!
I’ve never heard complaints! Shut up!
qu’est-ce que c’est?
I have reason to suspect that some people here thought Rudd’s downplaying of asylum seekers (at around the time of the Ashmore Reef incident) was a good idea and that talk by lackeys of that fascist Murdoch of Rudd’s temper tantrums was just a beat up. But I’m not naming names.
… and not to give it to Andrew Bolt.
Channel 10 News in Adelaide had a “Breaking News” with the East Timor parliament voting down the processing centre. It’s first on the radio here too.
Time to invade East Timor, methinks.
I kid! I kid!
Well, that’s a certain Victorian ALP operative for you Piper!
gloryconsequence
Tomorrow is the day the train moves on.
Well, Possum, we’ll never know, will we?
Poss, it shows that when you have a real good internal ALP row, how much Bolt hates the ALP is nothing as long as he hates its leader. Just something ‘True Believers’ would do.
Good ol’ Mark Reilly goes with the Nielsen poll and the “Labor vote tumbling” message. Typical.
‘Elites’ is also a term used pejoratively by right-wingers such as Paddy McGuiness and Psephos Miranda Devine et. al. to describe those who are educated and/or aware enough to oppose prejudice and xenophobia. Such terms are used to trivialise morally, intellectually and rationally sound thinking in favour of pandering to the baser instincts in society for political gain.
For example, it is currently being used by Labor right-wing drones to try to justify the party leader telling racists that their racism is legitimate and respectable in mainstream debate.
It was also used in the US election by the right as a pejorative term to trivialise Obama and intelligent policy, while talking up redneck attitudes and policies (eg Palin).
THe technique goes: If you cannot defeat an argument through rational debate because your own argument is irrational/racist/discriminatory, then just attack the other side for the very fact they are educated/intelligent and rational, ot create the impression that the debased values of racists and the selfish have equal value as the values of the ‘elites’.
I still have an ‘Elitists For Obama’ T-shirt from 2008 which I wore on election day.
Now that all the team are off the leash why am I seeing Smith all the time …. just askin
For the same reason you’re not seeing Barnaby.
I believe the term is ‘putting your best foot forward’
foreign affairs maybe?
and i beleive it will grow
some one told me they where so against the AS and i said well you will be voting for abbbott then, ‘ O no she said i would never vote for him’
so not the vote winner he thinks i suppose.
The others are having a rest before the election campaign starts in earnest. Surely it is better to have the “nasty” debates done and dusted before they can interfere with the things people really care about?
Psephos went:
Well, actually, some will – which is why it’s not such a shit hot idea.
Be Warned:
Possum why don’t you just email Psephos? It’s a great way of conducting your private conversations.
Whatever the forecasts are they will be more than Robb and his mates can raise. Poor Robb what he would give for a few lazy billion, denied him by Tone.
Yes, I was forgetting you have psychic powers, so that you know how seats would have voted if Rudd had remained leader.
Vera 591..sorry I just got home and noted your references to bogans. This might help http://thingsboganslike.wordpress.com/
Actually this summarizes it nicely
http://thingsboganslike.wordpress.com/the-full-list/
What’s with all the angst towards Mr Mumbles?
The fellow expresses a view. You can agree with it or disagree with it.
You can even tell him what you think on his blog.
I’m not sure what the problem is.
Is there going to be a Newspoll tonight?
Ari
he was one of the spartans back in 2006/7
Once a spartan always a spartan
Gary – why not send him a note asking why he does that or perhaps someone can tweet him the question.
but now abbott says in a link above that he would not be able to turn back every boat wtte so really he has NO policy on the issue at least Julia is working through it and tyring abbott just has now contradicted him self
Is he a Persian now Gus? A Xerxian disciple?
also remind people that abbott now has NO policy as on the link here he says wtte
he cannot turn all the boats back and i would have a quess that would none of them
Ari
nah just one of the few brave souls to speak up agin howie and newspoll
Abbott does not contradict himself.
It’s just that collisions between random thought bubbles sometimes occur.
Yes, Gus I remember it well.
There were a few of us, with key board shields interlocked, a phalanx of bloggers!
have you read the link where tone says wtte that of course we cannot turn all the boats back wtte Now he really has NO policy position on this would nt you say
any opinions
was it written on parchment paper
I expect the ETs are just holding out for more money. They learned this trick from the Indonesians. And who can blame them?
Is this unusual in the Timor Leste parliament?
Perhaps we should remove our troops from there.
Who could blame us?
Ari
and now we are few and far between
Mumbles and the missing newspoll will always be his zenith
Xerxes coin weilds a wide sway it seems
Gusface, I think you’ll find another one will have gone west tonight.
Fulvio
Who?
Another missing Newspoll.
my say
Was it witnessed and signed by George Pell?
Oh
they go missing all time
I thought you meant the last bastion had been breached
*wipes sweat off brow*
Hmm, sound familiar Thomas Paine and others still not letting go ?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/12/2951522.htm?section=justin
Well, must be time for today’s score.
The polls were good for Gillard because they show it is game on, which will increase the spotlight on Abbott, which is a lose for Abbott. Abbott left looking negative, negative, negative today. Memo to Abbott: People are bored with Rudd, are starting to notice that he is not playing the team sport, and, hey, Tony, get over it. You are probably the only person in Australia who still seriously regrets that Rudd has gone.
Abbott has his 42% primaries pretty well locked away but seems utterly incapable of shifting even the next one per cent. Queensland looking a bit too soft for Labor’s comfort.
The wobbly Soft Green/Soft Labor mob looks like being the chief psephological interest in the next little while. They are quite skittish, giving a living example of the volatility intuited by yrs truly for some time now.
The short attention span of the media means that they are already bored with AS and want to get on with AGW, so the East Timorese Parliament’s nyet is gaining little traction. PVO pretty well called Morrison a liar on Turning Back the Boats. In the OO, what’s more. How refreshment.
Gillard’s vision speech sort of Prime Ministerial and it was all quite warmly Adelaidean, which, no doubt, the Adelaideans will appreciate. Only the Taswegians to go for Gillard’s first go round which appears to have been appreciated all round.
No own goals for Labor today, which was also refreshing, therefore today was a win for Gillard: 2 points.
Cumulative score after day 6: Gillard 6; Abbott 6.
rua 608
ABC Sydney news mentioned East Timor very matter of factly. Parliament voted; Australian officials visit later this week. Yawn. No judgement. Next.
After first 7 minutes devoted to a soccer game, focus was on election date
Australia has just about the best economy in the developed world – other countries would kill for it – yet the Opposition takes the points as better economic manager.
Amazing stuff. Shows how the Government has failed to sell its message.
School halls and insulation are stuff that ordinary punters can understand, and the toxic Opposition and media can exploit, while the big picture is ignored.
I wonder what the Cardinal Archbishop George Pell thinks of the policy of drowning as a viable approach to AS?
Ahhh you’d be one of the ones who said last year boatpeople wouldn’t be an election issue.
Now your saying Gillards Gaff will be completely ignored by the press because it’s “convenient” for your mob. The world doesn’t work like that I’m afraid.
The silence from all church leaders regarding AS is appalling. Why are they silent? They’d be making lots of noise if school funding was being discussed.
I think Pell has other issues to worry about.
Yes, I’ve noted this as well. Their public utterances have been next to zilch.
However, from the tweet reporting of the address by Rudd and Abbott to church groups and their constituencies, Abbott copped a lot of flack from the audience about reconciling his christian beliefs with his demonising of AS, and very un-christian approach to the issue.
Naturally none of this appeared to make the MSM, that I saw.
which audiences where they and just latley ?
The Dean of Sydney didn’t mention Abbott by name yesterday, but he certainly placed AS squarely in the context of Sunday’s gospel (i.e. the real one) of the Good Samaritan
Phillip Coorey has a good analysis of the current policy vacuum within both parts of the dominant duopoly. Large vision is dead; small focus groups rule.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/longterm-vision-pursued-with-spectacles-prescribed-for-myopia-20100711-105hb.html#poll
my say: It was a gathering of church groups across the country (I think), which took place just before Rudd got knifed. From memory the same groups convened a gathering for Rudd and Howard to address them last election campaign, and is organised as a forum where christians are able to put their questions to the PM and alternative PM.
Laocoon
I’m sure George could find some Old Testament reference to support it.
BK
mmmmmm…Now who was it who said that he hadnt broken the commandment, Thou shalt not kill, only for lack of opportunity
You’ve got me there, Laocoon.
BK,
So, how many asylum seekers are you hosting? Mindless abuse gets you only so far.
http://www.cathnews.com/article.aspx?aeid=21434
Oh, hello GG.
Here it is BK – the flock just have to see the asylum seekers as ‘Egyptians’ and Bob’s your uncle:
Thanks jv
Well, now that Smith has promised there will be no ETS in the next Term of the Gillard Government, I can confidently predict The Australian Greens will poll 16% next week.
jv
The Isrealites were the refugees
If anyone has a hardened heart, that would be Pharaoh Abbott
Before Gillard took over this tended to be the poll result. This sums it up Gillard as a leader is a flop and if they lose the election they would have ruined two leaders in one go. If they win Gillard will not be leader in three years. The knifes i think are already out.
JV,
Stufffed that one up comrade.
From our favourite Heffalump:
Manaunda,
Got a reference?
This is crap. Rudd had Labor’s PV at 35% and a dissatisfaction rating to match. Stop rewriting history.
ManundaGreen@721
I’m not sure it will bounce back that far, or that quickly, but you have to ask yourself, which of those swinging between Labor and Greens wouldn’t be seeing Gillard as at least as bad as Rudd on the ETS, and now after The Lurch, even worse.
Labor’s (and the LNP‘s) policies are defined below:
vac·u·um
? ?/?vækyum, -yu?m, -y?m/ Show Spelled [vak-yoom, -yoo-uhm, -yuhm] Show IPA noun, plural vac·u·ums for 1, 2, 4–6, vac·u·a ?/?vækyu?/ Show Spelled[vak-yoo-uh] Show IPA for 1, 2, 4, 6; adjective; verb
–noun
1.
a space entirely devoid of matter.
2.
an enclosed space from which matter, esp. air, has been partially removed so that the matter or gas remaining in the space exerts less pressure than the atmosphere ( opposed to plenum).
3.
the state or degree of exhaustion in such an enclosed space.
4.
a space not filled or occupied; emptiness; void
Gary@728
And you denied that the figure was really at that level. Rudd could do no wrong. The TPP was King. 35% PV was not a problem. Stop airbrushing your pre-assassination position.
JV,
Looks a lot like your CV.
The polls are trending down and the greens support is going up.. and yes the poll result regarding leaders is vastly different. But you can be miles in front as preferred leader and still lose , look at preferred leaders in New South Wales. This means little if anything.
On the primary vote Labor is trailing again and is trending down not a good sign for a leader who has been in the job less than one month.
It seems pretty clear what the Labor strategists have planned, Hammer Abbott, plant their standard in the middle ground, capture a few ‘working family’ votes and force The Greens in the Senate to pass contentious legislation, thereby forcing The Greens to back opposing position to their policies or seem recalcitrant and obstructive.
Watch JG announce a new solar scheme in coming days. Telling that Smith make the announcment, allowing Labor in W.A. to look strong for the resources sector and leaves JG with an oppourtunity to announce environmental inniatives in Melbourne.
Good. If the tweet reporting of Rudd/Abbott address is anything to go by, the public silence by church leaders on AS is actually not representing their constituencies, who it would seem are disturbed by the hardline approach being taken. I’d like to see more reporters question Abbott on his religious views as they pertain to the humane treatment of those seeking asylum, and especially in relation to this turning the boats back nonsense.
If the alternative PM wants to promote his religious beliefs as a selling point for voters, that’s fine. But he doesn’t get to choose the bits he wants to be religious over (ie same sex marriage), he needs to own the whole kit and caboodle in my view.
A Couple of Quotes from the Smith Presser:
http://twitter.com/G_Parker
Whatever happened to that commentator who used to have Rudd as his avatar?
Hang on, the ETS is good again? It’s hard to keep up with the oscillating philosophies of the far left…
Sorry when you see and hear Julia on the news it is not a make you want to watch moment. Julia is no head turner. As a Labor member and voter she is no leader.
I did when it first appeared but when it continued in not just one poll but in others I became convinced and said so here. You’re another who likes to rewrite history.
Pebbles,
It’s amazing what you can do with smoke and mirrors, a coat of paint and a few dodgy polls purporting to be from Western Sydney.
ManundaGreen: I thought the Greens were opposed to the CPRS?
Oh, I see, because I supported Rudd in the past I must do so for the rest of my life. I get it. Stop being ridiculous.
The CPRS was a dud piece of legislation offering huge funding concessions to big business and according to Treasury models was not going to bring down emissions until 2031. Some scheme. The greens did the correct thing it was going to do nothing.
confessions,
It’s like Lee Rhiannon is opposed to abuse of entitlements. Except if she’s doing the abusing.
JV 729
And the Greens’ policies are defined as below:
fan·ta·sy
[fan-tuh-see, -zee] Show IPA noun, plural -sies, verb, -sied, -sy·ing.
–noun
1.
imagination, esp. when extravagant and unrestrained.
2.
the forming of mental images, esp. wondrous or strange fancies; imaginative conceptualizing.
3.
a mental image, esp. when unreal or fantastic; vision: a nightmare fantasy.
4.
Psychology . an imagined or conjured up sequence fulfilling a psychological need; daydream.
5.
a hallucination.
6.
a supposition based on no solid foundation; visionary idea; illusion: dreams of Utopias and similar fantasies.
7.
caprice; whim.
8.
an ingenious or fanciful thought, design, or invention.
Gary@742
Some people have this theory that you have to follow a leader US Style – WRONG You support a PARTY.
A leader isn’t elected by the punter, it is selected by the Caucus.
TSOP, As Greens have been announcing since the early 90′s, there has to be a price put on Carbon. What you call it is not the point, CTS, ETS, Ctax etc. What the Greens want is to force big polluters to have to pay, this will of course raise electricity prices under the Business As Usual approach……so, Instead of subsidising the car industry, Raytheon and the Coal sector let’s subsidise renewables. Have a look at the changes The Greens proposed in the Senate for Wong’s ETS.
It aint a philosophy its what is possible. Read Monbiot’s “Heat”, the only issue we can’t deal with is jet travel.
Christ… I take a day off crook from a bad cold, spend all afternoon asleep trying to get rid of the fever, and I wake up and see Truthy’s back?
Is this Rumplestilskin-World? Have I really died and gone to Hell?
Geez.
The reason the Churches don’t rail against Abbott’s policies is that they know full well his “turning the boats back” schtik is utter nonsense. It’s designed to cater only to the armchair fantasists who have wet dreams over sinking a few boats on the sly with torpedos. They like to kid themselves they’re tough. It’s all just a Reality TV show. The losers don’t really suffer when they fail their tests and the winners aren’t really going to stay living on the island, spearing wild pigs for supper.
The key metric in Essential today was that 56% are convinced Abbott wants to reintroduce Work Choices if he wins, and that nearly all of them – 48% – are quiteor somewhat concerned about it. For a man on a hiding to nothing both elctorally and personally on PPM, this is bad news, as he needs every single vote he can muster to even put up a show of participating.
The rest is confected and phoney, cheap thought-bubble fodder for the slow thinkers who think every problem has a solution that can be neatly packagaed between ad breaks and wound up satisfactorily by the end of the hour.
Their position is to be against whatever Labor is for…
Yes Rudd wasn’t going to lose, and historically he wouldn’t in the position was either, and in fact his polls were on the up.
The history writers are those who must justify in some way JGillard’s selfish power grab. This has netted no advantage and possible removed the advantage of incumbency that would have see Rudd’s figures strengthen further in an election. JGillard and her greedy cohort certainly did not have the well being of the Labor Party in her mind.
If she loses all those involved should be kicked out for desroying government for personal gain. Fortunately for this disloyal lot JGillard is up against Abbott, unelectable.
Exactly Manuda Green, show some courage when you are in government. I do not see Gillard showing any courage as a leader. She blinked on the resources tax,
then asylum seekers and will do so on doing something about the Greenhouse Emissions. If you want to be leader Julia lead with fair dinkum policies.
TP,
If the Libs were to dump Abbott in favour of Turnbull, then it would be gameon.
You know how Gillard is going by observing the Rabbott’s mannerisms. He is a dead give away. It’s interesting to watch as his body language & conversation generally contradict each other the majority of the time. The contradiction is very palpable at times & makes one feel uncomfortable. Quite strange.
Same tune TP. Keep wishing the worse for Labor old son. Get over it.
Thomas Paine@750
Does this sound familiar ??
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/12/2951522.htm?section=justin
And will you be just as scathing ??
Or are you here on talking point duty from Menzies House ?
What are you on marky? Anything that can produce that kind of delusion must be (to coin an Americanism) good shit.
Anyone remember Kevin07?
This leadership cult thing is weird when it changes. Avatars go, yesterday’s black is today’s white.
TPS,
Eurasia has always been at war with Oceania.
This election could still be lost even with Abbott as leader, although i doubt it. Last week showed just how terrible Julia is when the heat is on.
The better hope they win, because they will be a mess after the election, they simply will tear themselves apart.
I think we are heading the NSW way change leaders every couple of years. With Arbib pulling the strings it is big concern.
The Piping Shrike@757
Kevin07 was a slogan, just as “It’s Time” worked for Gough.
Are you going to lambast the libs for dumping Turnbull infavour of Abbott ??
Or is it Lib Challenge Good – Labor Bad ??
Yep what am i on, i look at from the publics’ viewpoint and not the polls viewpoint. The public i think liked Rudd and saw him as a leader, Julia i am not so sure.
Already the public are seeing Gillard as a flop as another cardboard cutout, a weak leader with no new policy ideas.
What a load of rubbish.
If it were a “leadership cult” we’d be militantly opposed to Gillard. The reality is that some of us are older than 5 and are able to distance ourselves from personalities and compare candidates politically. Nobody is denying the Kevin was a good PM, or denying he existed or any other partisan propaganda that the hacks from other parties like to claim.
marky marky@761
Anything you say Alan Jones.
Now go and report to Liberal HQ for your next set of talking points.
History-sure, but what if –
A Turnbull Vs Gillard elction….
next time I’m wargaming forget Hitler invading England in 1940, it’ll be MT vJG
I can assure you, the inside goss is that Arbib had nothing to do with anything.
Which is why he was so anxious for the media to think otherwise, of course.
Oh for goodness sakes – let’s bury Abbott before you call on another challenger.
Gillard vs Turnbull would be a class war thing – the North Shore Sydney silvertail versus the Aussie shiela with the twang.
Frank 760
Don’t you know? We’re supposed to turn against Labor now, and put them in opposition for a decade or two, to punish them for having the audacity to change leaders.
The Liberal structure is autocratic. To them, changing a leader is changing the entire government/opposition.
The Greens have never changed leaders. (Mind you, the leader in most of the parliaments is whoever is in office, and on the federal level, whichever of the 5 of them wants the job
)
A much more interesting election and a better concession speech from Malcolm than Tone’s “but but but but…”
marky mark
A contradiction?
Rudd seen as a leader & Gillard just another cardboard cutout?
What the?
Eh? Kevin07 was a deliberate campaign to centre Labor’s strategy around the personality of its leader. That’s why Labor paid for hokey ads of Rudd down on the farm talking about his childhood. To compare that to Labor’s 1972 campaign is a joke. Talk about re-writing history.
If Labor wants to dump the most successful leader they had for a generation, it’s up to them. What annoys me is the BS that surrounds it.
How did Stephen Smith’s presser go? Did anyone see it?
In Gary (Bruce)’s defence, he confirmed a computer gremlin swallowed his Rudd avatar weeks before the change…
Unless, of course, he knew something we didn’t… Like Bolta!
The Piping Shrike@772
And wasn’t It’s time all about Gough ??
Need a reminder ??
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqMCZBjvmD4
Except it was a valid strategy to counter Howard’s leadership based campaigns which killed Latham and Beazley. Credit Labor for being wise enough to realise the 2007 election would be another election on leadership
“” I do not see Gillard showing any courage as a leader. She blinked on the resources tax”"
Rubbish from a nil tax to 22.5% and in the process getting the mining companies to stop their advertising not a bad result indeed. And guess what that tax and the concesssions will change in 10yrs time as govts need more revenue to pay for health and the ageing population you can count on that. Marky mark i suggest you get back to the dance floor.
The churches continue to speak out on refugees. But it doesn’t get reported much. So the Uniting church welcomes elements of Gillard’s speech but has reservations re ETimor processing centre.
http://assembly.uca.org.au/media/63-mediareleases2010/589-good-and-bad-in-political-point-scoring-policies.html.
The churches have put out quite a lot critical of Abbott’s policies in the last couple of months. It is true though that on the Gillard changes they are mostly letting the Refugee Council of Australia (which is the umbrella body for 130 organisations) do the talking.
In General,
I read most posts but fall behind in relevance to current postings by the time I read them and want to respond – ie I’m reading posts from at least a 1/2hr ago.
Prior to reading political blogs I was a Labor supporter because I just felt that the “spirit” of the Liberal party was not egalitarian – no real support for universal health care, compulsory superannuation, etc.. while propping up an inefficient industry with tax dollars because “Private” health insurance was somehow better – (how private is it if 30% of your income comes from the government)
My natural assumption was that the Greens – being more of a left party – would be almost a loose coalition partner with the majority centre left party (If you dispute Labor’s leftness just revert to the in between directions but substitute C for Centre and L for Left. So instead of NNE for north north east you would have CCL – Centre Centre Left).
At first, the dislike of greens to labor and labor to greens on political blogs was confusing – after all, at my kid’s PS in Nov 2007, whilst voting for Marn Ferguson, I was informed that a vote for the Greens somehow doubled the voting effect as Marn would still get in but the Greens would also be rewarded. A sort of magic pudding of benefits from my vote.
After these 2 and a 1/2 years of blogs, I no longer read/listen/watch political commentators, as I now understand they are basically lazy f**ks with their own agendas.
I also realise that political parties are machines for election, so what appeared to me to be a potential natural affiliation between the Greens and Labor, actually appears to the party machines as votes lost to the other party.
I realise – like the alliance in WW2 between USSR, and the allied forces – that “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” system is at also at work in Aus politics.
The Greens want to gain more votes – they aren’t coming from Liberal voters as a rule, so they have to paint Labor as a “Right Wing” party who have sold out.
The greens have to sh*tcan every Labor policy – similar to what the Libs do but for different reasons – to pick off voters from the Labor tree. That is not to say that Labor aren’t also indulging in similar cynical vote grabbing exercises. And as for the Liberal party – FFS Tone’s next policy should be to buy Nukes off Israel to blow up the boats of the Muslim terrorist armada landing on our shores in WA – from turn the boats back, to turn the boats into ash. (He’s a deadset F**kwit!)
So I have come to the following conclusions:
1) It is not in the green’s self interest to assist Labor in any way by passing legislation, if there is a way of discrediting the legislation on news service sound bites
2) It is not in the Coalition’s self interest o assist Labor in any way by passing legislation, if there is a way of discrediting the legislation on news service sound bites
and
3) If Labor was in opposition, It would not be in Labor’s self interest to assist the Coalition in any way by passing legislation, if there was a way of discrediting the legislation on news service sound bites.
If the Libs are in they are attacked from the centre left and left – Labor and Greens – if the Greens formed govt at some stage they would be attacked from the centre left and right – Labor and Liberals – so it’s just that Labor has the unfortunate position of being in the centre that they have to fight on two fronts – Greens and Coalition.
I guess – because of my biases – I rate the coalition as the biggest bull shitters, this is then followed by the Greens, (although on the obsfucation meter, the difference between labor and the greens MOE could be down to sample size being me), and followed by Labor, who do disappoint me often, but not as often as the other 2 machines.
Hope some one reads – (reviewing it – its pretty boring)
Rather the Eastern Suburbs Sydney silvertail versus the Aussie sheila with the twang.
from a nil 40% tax to 22.5%…is pretty high cost of buying and selling PMs. JGillard is costing the Australian people $4.5bn pa in lost revenue.
the spectator@777
And feel those Good Vibrations:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ut_XDMl-1X8
You know, it’s funny Frank, I’m sure there was a program that people voted for then, something about getting out of Vietnam, Medicare, univeral access to higher education etc. etc. But maybe you’re right, 1972 was really just about Gough and his upbringing etc.
“”from a nil 40% tax to 22.5%…is pretty high cost of buying and selling PMs. JGillard is costing the Australian people $4.5bn pa in lost revenue”"
With Abbott you get nil. This is the first step in the programme. It will be altered in future yrs guaranteed.
the spectator
What makes me laugh about the mining tax spectator is the grumbling in the Coalition.
One of the key whinging points now is about loss of taxes that we could have had from the mining deal. This is the tax they don’t want & will repeal.
Just unbelievable.
To Speak of Pebbles@745
No point in complaining to me. But you might get a rise out of a Green if you were to tell them that.
Very interesting, thanks for that.
One does have to ask why is this not reported in the media more generally?
TP, enough of your incessant whingeing and whining. It is going to be Gillard or Abbott for you then??
The Piping Shrike
Gough aside, look at what you have cited.
Change Vietnam to Afghanistan & we are still fighting for the same things 38 years later.
Where is Adam and will he tell us if she’ll call it for late August on Thursday?
,1892CFC You don’t have to worry about The Greens forming Government for about 20-30 years and even then they’d be in a coalition of some kind (See the UK) _However by then there are going to be a whole range of smaller parties staking a claim to sections of the electorate.
Bar the “forseen”, Australian Governments will remain in the center-it’s the Senate though that’ll be interesting in the future.
How about that Neilsen number on the economy: 53/39 to the coalition. I’m glad the masses were paying attention when the opposition’s pass the parcel on the budget cuts came up billions short, and needs another 10.5b to cover the resources tax. Think it very important that Labor runs hard on avoiding recession and higher unemployment. The coalition with help from the MSM have done well to reduce it to “batts and school halls”. How many projects have been for halls anyway?
confessions@787
I haven’t seen anything like a defence of asylum seekers from the right-wing fundie leaders in Sydney, Pell and Jensen. Where are they? God knows they’ll run off at the mouth all over the press about anything else they don’t like, like female priests or gays. Why so silent on the trampling of basic human rights by government and opposition? They’re so quiet you’d be excused for thinking it’s another child abuse cover-up.
Andrew
Not many but by the way the ALP have ran away from this instead of defend the scheme you would be forgiven for thinking that the BER was only about new school halls.
Glen, remember what happened last time Adam went AWOL?
Yeah a Prime Minister got knifed.
I dont like it! It smells like an election.
Dee, youre right, the govt has really lost the running on the stimulus. I guess its hard to prove to people what a policy PREVENTED, and easy to beat up the few projects that had problems.
And TP, Abbott or Gillard?
I think that conscription is a very significant difference between the 2 cases.
Just returning it as good as they give it.
Truthfully, Greens are the least of our problems this election. My main target is Abbott.
Election goal: Return of Labor government.
In the Senate, Russel Trood and Steve Fielding should fall to Labor and/or the Greens. The remaining makeup of the Senate should remain unchanged (maybe a couple of Labor/Green seats interchanged) which will mean, as of 1 July 2011, you should have a combined Labor-Green vote of 39 – enough to get legislation passed. Which means you will, for the first time ever, have a Labor government with the Greens having balance of power in the Senate (the Libs can go pout in the corner and Xenephon can go back to doing pointless tokenistic stunts.) Surely that goal is worth aiming for…
Is Howard and 2001 the last time a govt went into a campaign ahead? Has a government ever gone into a campaign ahead and LOST??
If anyone doubts how badly Abbott will do in a campaign, think back to 2007. Despite not having the pressure of being the leader, his Banton comments and rudeness to Roxon were the 2 main gaffes of the coalition campaign. Bring it on, indeed.
My this Piñata is entertaining this evening.
Glen, how did you deduce that? You must have keen insight to figure out an election is looming. Use this power for good, friend!
Psephos was online today. He may not be present simply because he is away from his computer. Maybe out living a life?
But does Swan have the internal polls and numbers in caucus?
“I’m glad the masses were paying attention”
I dont think the masses start to pay attention to much politics until the election is called.
That is going to be the danger for the Libs. They wont be able to hide Tony any more and will have to actually detail policies (of which they have few if any?).
Best thing for the Libs is a campaign that only lasts a few days while Tony is on holdays overseas. Cant see that happening though.
So TP, do you have evidence that Rudd was going to achieve a better outcome? How many billion dollars is this outcome better than Abbott’s position?
jv @ 793: I agree. If Pell had come out and spoken strongly against the turn the boats back rubbish, I’d find it hard to believe his speech would disappear into the ether.
As I said before, I suspect the silence of church leaders is failing the wishes of their constituencies. And it’s not like they don’t have the stomach to attack governments. Church groups condemned Workchoices back in the day, earning a very strong rebuke from (guess who!), Tony ‘I didn’t actually support Workchoices’ Abbott.
The earlier link suggests that perhaps lesser church leaders are going public but aren’t being reported, but the more high profile ones aren’t. If that’s the case, then it’s simply cowardice in my view.
Was Fraser’s Coalition ahead of Hayden’s Labor in 1983, as he drove to Yarralumla – unaware what the ALP and Hawke were doing concurrently?
“The play’s the thing! wherein I’ll catch the conscience of the king”
Heaven forefend he posts here during his own time rather than the taxpayer’s!
Imacca
Tone might find a convenient 33 day bike ride is in order
Abbott has done really well in dumbing down political discourse- debt and deficit, great big new tax, batts and school halls. The problem is that Austraiian voters rarely change the government. Firstly, you have to convince them that the govt is bad and has to go, and second is to convince them that you are competant to take over. Abbott’s simplistic slogans might help with the former but the latter is where the he falls short
Actually Marky, the polls clearly show that the public massively prefer Gillard to Abbott as Prime Minister. Not bad for a cardboard cutout eh?
Why doesn’t Labor designate Nauru as a boatpeople processing centre?
Why are Labor so full of piss and wind, that they just can’t take the next step to a real policy?
Gus, well for starters, there are still a fair few days left in the Tour de France
I see they have exhumed Pig’s Arse for Q&A tonight.
Ok Marky Mark lets pretend your trolling is actually psephological argument. Primary vote UP, 2PP UP, PPM UP, satisfaction UP, disatisfaction DOWN, net satisfaction UP. Yes, the public sure prefer Rudd to Gillard.
Arent you embarrassed to post this BS here? Ackerman or Bolt’s blog seems much more your thing
B
Betcha he turns on prissy
Afterall Big John is a mans man
I agree that conscription is a major difference, but, not the only difference between Vietnam and Afghanistan.
The Vietnamese (north) wanted only to run their own country, free of outside control, and fought for many years, (after diplomatic efforts failed), first against the French then the USA to achieve it.
The Taliban, besides bring a bunch of dogmatic, sexist, thugs, sponsored terrorism globally and there was a need to take them out.
Unfortunatly, the incompetence, of Bush and friends, meant that a second front (Iraq) was opened up where none was needed, justified, nor desirable, and the financial, military, and political capital expended in so doing, has directly led to the public’s growing disenchantment with the whole campaign, and probably cost the opportunity for any half reasonable outcome (whatever that might be thought of as) in Afghanistan.
All somewhat ironic and tragic considering the USAs involvement in Afghanistan during the Soviet era.
He couldn’t have done a thing without a complicit media all too eager to propagate his childish slogans and talking points month in, month out.
What we’ve got in this compromised democracy is an unhealthily concentrated media acting in virtual partnership with one side of politics on a mission to dumb down political discourse.
So much for that noble and apparently outdated concept of the media existing to INFORM and enlighten the audience.
7 diligently reporting the e timor vote without Smith’s comments. Fabulous
1892CFC
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/07/11/galaxy-52-48-to-labor-2/comment-page-16/#comment-518923
Interesting post. I agree with your premise that, in politics, it’s every party for itself.
Labor has revealed their big weakness. Notice that the negative ads don’t show the top of Tony’s head?…………Labor feels threatened by an Abbott cranium campaign.
Cuppa true. Abbott is that rare political animal that is really willing to get into the gutter and say or do anything if it helps his cause. He has really damaged political discourse. And I agree he has gotten the best MSM ride of any OL in history
G
Pyne has had his hair died a darker shade of black.
Confused about East Timor vote in parliament. Does this mean end of discussions?
Afghanistan has long been a playing ground for the powers. Back in 1968 when I was wandering around that area, the road from Kabul to Kandahar had been built by the Americans while the road from Kandahar to Herat had been built by the Russians.
B
swmbo came in saw prissy and has left forthwith
Good on Pyne. He just stopped Jones in his tracks when he tried to interrupt him.
Victoria, Smith said that the parliament’s is not the government’s position and something along the lines of ministers not being in parliament. It is not the end. I seriously doubt Gillard would have flagged and pursued it if it was a lost cause
G
swmbo?
Haha. Evans just called Jones on his lie about the ‘Government’ voting against it.
Jones=dickhead twice already tonight, once by Pyne and once by Evans.
Think Rumpole.
sorry
she
who
must
be
obeyed
She really really really doesnt like prissy
Haha. Evans just explained to Jones that he was ignorant.
Jones=dickhead thrice.
G
ah, cognitive flash.
at least he is dickhead evenly
My hero Lenore… smart, balanced…
Andrew. Thanks for explanation. Although still unclear what it all means. If Parliament voted unanimously against it, but ministers not being in Parliament, who voted therefore?
I once flew with Lenore… sigh…
yeah
lenore is another who i would rate as impartial
crabby was at first but now I just skim her articles
I hope mischa dont go down the crabby path
Evans boring everyone to death with plain talk.
Whilst government ministers might be able to push back against misrepresentation by ABC journos, unfortunately they don’t have the avenue to do so against the newspaper hacks who pull the same cheap tricks – such efforts just won’t get reported.
So has Ludlum
In fact it looks exactly the same
Hmmmmm
G
wicked. lol.
For the non-ABC viewer, can those who are watching QandA inform, does the audience appear to be stacked with Young (or even Old) Liberal plants?
Cuppa
The only burst of applause so far has been for Ludlum.
ABC did say that they were going to stamp down on gratuitous groupie clapping.
Cuppa
A couple of aspidistras and a few palms
aside from that no noticeable plants
Lenore socking it to Pyne. Go Lenore. Evans socking it to Pyne. Go Evans.
Big john just socking it
Well truthy, you convince them to become a signatory and I’m sure it wouldn’t be a problem. Fact is they are not, and all you have is slogans and empty rhetoric.
This is BS. My avatar of Kev went long before the leadership change and was due to my computer shiteing itself. I got a new computer and forgot how to do the avatar thing. Not that that really has anything to do with this debate but there you go.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/julia-gillards-first-election-pledge-is-to-offer-tax-breaks-on-school-uniforms/story-e6frf7l6-1225890934125
Tom
she has just won the mum and dad vote
Thanks Boerwar. I admire your fortitude, subjecting yourself to another session of Liberal whining and ABC misrepresentation.
Gary
your kev is probably with my beloved turtle
damn the internet thingys that steal avatars!!
cuppa
This is one of the better Q&A so far.
So stacked with Greens eh?
Gus you made me feel a little nostalgic for 2007 earlier, and it took me a while to locate it, but I managed to get it from the pollbudger vault. This classic from Mr Fulvio Sammut:
Pyne has just been confronted by Jones with the word ‘invasion’. Pyne ignores the question. Will Jones repeat it?…. Bates breath in hope.
Gus,
I’m sure if their ABC waters them regularly they will grow into staunch Liberal supporters.
Is Armada the same as flotilla? Is that the same as peaceful invasion?
Yep. Jones repeats the question. Pyne ignores it. Jones repeats the question. Pyne tries again using the word ‘armada’.
Lenore stitching up Pyne and also Labor.
Good one Cuppa!
Boerwar, the MSM gave Abbott a free pass with his invasion comments
confessions
When the Spanish finish in Joburg they might make another armada and come over here and frighten Pyne.
Scott Ludlam will try and talk about The Internet Filter, he’s going to be out of his depth here
I dont have any “tail”, only flipper
Andrew
PVO stitched the Coalition up on it.
Has Pyne taken up bowls?
It’s nice to see somebody else who actually types the correct phrase there. How often do I see people type “baited breath” ie to set up your breath as bait. When it is “bated” ie. withheld!
Ludlum cracked a funny… ‘Tony Abbott might as well have been blowing a vuvuzela for the last couple of weeks…’
see
Pyne has true leadership potential, when Abbott fails,Turnbull has another crack and fails, Christopher Pyne should get the leadership…the cupboard really is bare in lib town
TSOP
haha you took my bate.
B
you got a byte
Damn you, Boerwar! I’ll get you yet! *shakes fist*
Lenore stitching up Pyne again. Lovely to see an MSM journo finally getting near enough to the Opposition to take them to pieces on asylum seekers…
Just killing him…
Contrary to popular belief Mr Abbott has never sent a gunboat anywhere.
I’ve just seen Pyne’s hair.
He really is into the Grecian 2000.
IF he is re-elected
Chris Evans
YOU ROCK!!
I really like Chris Evans. He’s the perfect foil for the hysteria from the Libs.
I think Abbott should just give up, and wait till next election when people sick of Labor.
the same old problem people think rome is built in a day
Are we in a parallel universe? First PVO has taken the Liberals to task on AS issue and now Lenore.
TSOP
So, just who exactly in the parliamentary liberal party would get behind Pyne?
Ludlam is the quiet Green, I’ve noticed. I know very little of him. I look forward to his commentary.
Two seconds of listening to Elliot’s grating voice and I am already sick of him!
OMG where has this question about the stupid filter come from!!!!!
Christopher Pyne
The ALP
umm… anyone who wants a new reason to laugh at Adelaide…
Pebbles.
Elliot has no credibility whatsoever.
Chris Evans is one of the government’s better performers, esp in Estimates. Too bad they’ve kept him hidden for so long.
[Posted Monday, July 12, 2010 at 10:11 pm | Permalink
Chris Evans
YOU ROCK!!]] has q a been on we decided to hide tonight watched rally cars and Stephen fry in an old enlish programme bliss
so what happened Chris evans is usually so quite
From Louis or Lewis D’alpuget.
The name may ring a bell for some.
There seem to be more Green “plants” than Liberal, judging by the applause or lack of it for Evans. …owwhhh net filter, cue Scott
Laver
yes just another example of talent unleashed once the monomaniacial Rudd got the sack from the Parliamentary Labor Party.
my say
Evans just basically stated how e need to deal with facts not fear
used siev36 as an example of how the fear that AS feel
Also pointed out how we can afford to have AS
Preaching to the choir. But he is (apparently) charismatic, so he is loved by the commentariat – despite not actually having any use.
Pyne dissing the filter. Ludlum dissing the filter.
who is pvo
Boerwar. It does appear that the Labor ministers are stepping up since change of leadership.
The net Filter is Ludlum’s thing, he’s been putting release after release out on the subject
A wowser question and ignorance reigns, technical decisions made by non technical people *always* fail. Oh no, don’t tell me I’m going to agree with Pynne, that is depressing.
I agree with Pyne and Mr green on the filter; user end intervention is best.
TSOP
He apparently had some role in destroying Carlton football club for years, so he can’t be all bad. And wasn’t there something about cotton or something?
B
beer
its all about the beer
PVO is Peter Van Onselen.
Talking about Australian Rules football is lost on me. He could have single handedly founded the sport and it would mean bugger all to me…
my say
wonderful is he speaking very quite as usual.
i may watch it tomorrow is it on line to watch.
i know you think silly woman well watch it. but latley everything upsets me so much i get so stressed about the abc and msm that oh has decided it off limits.
so i sit and cross st while he relaxes with his rally cars.
G
Pig’s Arse it is.
G
crackling question that
I thought the other night that Pyne might have a unilateral goitre on the left wing side but with a collar and tie it is hard to confirm my diagnosis. He certainly acts as if has a thyroid condition of some sort or another.
yes thats one big difference i noticed the very next day with martin ferguson do you remember Julia said i have my appropriated minister here with me to talk about this tax re the mine tax
the stephen smith he is amazing if they wa people vote him out they are crazy
my say. Understand your frustration. Sometimes best to have break from the media. It can be very therapeutic.
Young lib question to Pyne was that GP? Does anyone think sometimes these questions are Dorothy dixers?
I thought Rudd was still in the party?
But yes, good to see ministers given the opportunity to run their portfolios now
I just saw one of the twitter comments at the bottom saying “Why doesn’t the gov just shelve the AS issue until next year?” Gee, why didn’t they think of that? Oh yeah, because the opposition and the media won’t shut up, or at least relent, on the issue. If the government decided to wait until next year, it would be decimated!
Can i ask a silly question what is an avartor its all new to me.
ALL the questions have targeted Labor. Not one has targetted Abbott or his policies.
Jon, was the Young Lib wearing a kitchen apron and a hair net?
Clapping Score last 20 minutes:
Pyne 2
Lenore 3
Ludlum 3
Evans 0
Elliot 2
There are Green Plants, the ETS one is a dead give away
my say
in this context it is the little piccie thing just to the left of your nom de blog.
My Say-click on the Icon next to your name-follow the links
My Say-click on the Icon next to your name-follow the links
and my hearing is dreadful so this great for me here i find out more than on the tv.
and dont laugh but the dog ate my hearing aids. 2.500 dollars worth
yes but why is called that
my say
Was it a Jack Russell?
Pity. Evans, besides being one of the nicer guys in politics, has a closer personal philosophy to the Greens than other Laborites. Would you guys prefer Arbib?
Look at his argument, he clearly cares about the asylum seekers!
Pyne finds being ojectionable just so easy. So natural.
my say. I say your Dog has expensive taste!
Fulvio Sammut@920
GP looks like this:
http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash2/hs020.ash2/34357_447375409103_695924103_6060148_3318461_n.jpg
Some people have buffoon thrust upon them. Others, like Elliott, achieve it in their own right.
True, Victoria.
my say
from the indian idea of gos (avatars) that take earthly form
In the internet case it is mere mortals adopting the guise of gods
sometimes
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avatar_(computing)
gos of course is gods
So did chris evans mention how tone said today that no he cannot turn all the boats back,wtte well not all of them the link is here about page 15 i think
I would like to suggest he would not turn any back
So if you analyse that He has no policy on the AS
Taylor sticking it to both Liberal and Labor on AGW. She is very clever.
Adelaide’s own…
Amazing, we have some great politicians from here (like Ellis, Wong et al) but some absolutely terrible ones too!
Fulvio,
No just a snarly smirk and an indignant look, does GP wear kitchen drag?
No plants? Hmmmm.
so you choose somthing that reminds you or your own personality do you then have to change your onscreen name
From his Facebook:
Real name changed to respect his privacy – or from his own stupidity – take your pick
Evans is saying the right thing. Pity everyone has already made up their mind about the issue and it will fall on deaf ears…
Frank
Candles is turning into a mover and shaker?
labor dont seem to use their young Labor members enough re blogging and shows like q and a perhaps they feel with shows like that one it stands out a mile
Any way i also think our young labor people should be occupied helping the party in a constructive way but a few plants in the audience would not hurt wish it was here i would go
GP needs to learn that the bottom of a Tie is surpose to be level with the belt buckle
His dad runs a restaurant, Jon. I thought he may have come straight from work.
Gusface@945
Yup – evidence here
http://www.facebook.com/robertcandelori?ref=ts#!/album.php?aid=141200&id=695924103
Who cares whether they are signatories or not, we’ll be the ones doing the processing.
This is just more Labor leftie idealogy. Sometimes you guys have to stop the silly games and feel good rot and actually introduce real policies.
My say,
Or to clarify Gus’s slightly cryptic explanation, an avatar in internet speak is a representative icon or picture, or sometimes 3d character. Often an alternate alter ego.
I agreed with Pyne on the net filter.
I agreed with Elliot on the ETS.
I agreed with Evans on refugees.
I agreed with Ludlum (Greens) on nothing!
GP so you mean the one and only gp from this site. well well
what have i missed.
my say @ 942
You can keep your onscreen name unless someone else already uses it
Nt much, my say, not much.
I have been wondering this about avatar for months but did not like to ask.
thanks all you learn something new every day.
Or i do anyway
GP has some good taste in Movies.
Out of all of the Green Senators, I actually am finding him most tolerable. He seems to actually have a brain in his head.
Ironic isn’t it…
Your lot were the ones who MADE it an issue. You opened the floodgates, now you deal with the consequences.
Silly fools, could have kept the Lib policies on boaties and bar some minority far lefties no one would have lifted an eyebrow… but your idealogy rot got in the way and you just HAD to touch the tap that wasn’t leaking… you had to play with it.. you had to fiddle… and then the tap started to leak… and now it’s spraying water everywhere and you just can’t hide it anymore. Silly silly fools.
cocker spaniel apparently if you put them away with out taking out the battery they can hear them and must of searched for them.
he ran around the house with me chasing him thought it was wonderfull
toooo late cracked them half we could have one repaired but the other no way.
mexicanbeemer@957
But a rotten taste in politicans – both locally and from the old country.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTVr0zkDfys&feature=player_embedded
And then what Truthy? They will just come here anyway like last time? Naru was an exercise in futility.
So I take it you did agree with a lot of what Ludlum had to say TSOB?
Good for you!
Centre
but what about prissys and muddlings hair
Is it grecian 2000 and do you agree with it
that must be one of the strangest things i have ever seen written here
i dont read you much truthy
but i will be off now and let one of the other explain it to you
And has the straightening iron been getting a run?
fundie nutter in the audience exploiting sexual abuse to whine about the filter being shelved was a joke. Especially as he seems to think it should block all pornography!
my say
william has opened the floodgates!!!
now we have all these bolta refugees,how will we deal with the consequences?
He doesn’t look old enough to vote, let alone be so opinionated
No.
However, I’d take his style of Green politicking over that of SHY or Christine Milne!
BK
my daughter tried that with the iron NOT the straightening thingys
I will leave the end result to your imagination and her frizzled ends
Yes, Pebbles, Scott Ludlam seems to be a very steady type.
Gus, I also agree that Lenore looked quite sexy showing off her intelligence like that!
But I suppose you on the saint side of the force would not agree with that
It’s not about whether they get here in the end or not, it’s about whether there is a big enough disincentive to stop the boats.
The left claim the Pacific Solution was a failure because 90% of boaties from Nauru got here, but it was 90% of 160 people over 6 years. The boaties had stopped.
So he WAS there when Maxine was last on Q&A ?
958
He also seems to have the lowest profile.
You may all remember when abbott was elected i said the woman would not be happy.
and the polls show that.
Truly why would his minders think putting him in 1950 . what ever you call them and sending him down to the beach would appeal now or even then
i dont get it. and all that bike riding etc.
AS there are more females of voting age in australia i would think that the primary vote will go higher when the real campaign starts.
Frank
he was pinged on twitter and here i think
tho i dont think he asked a Q just was revealed in the camera pans
Jones is as weak as piss by letting Pyne go on and on and on and on.
Whiney Pyney is being his sad usual self, faking indignity while spewing party talking points.
Still, to his credit, he’s still doing a better job that Brandis did last week…
Centre
gee you continually set the bar lower and lower
anyway lenore is too young for moi
Umm, we created your talking point???
In other words, you’re saying “Why are you punching yourself?”
Why if 90% of the AS get here anyway is there a “big enough disincentive to stop the boats” ? Seems that Naru would be a 90% guarantee of residency, pretty good odds Truthy, your argument just doesn’t make any sense.
Elliot has degenerated to the Rubbery Figure portrayal of the 90′s.
ps
is candles banned?
Gussie, just enough for you never to be able to jump it
Good tipping with Spain though
TSOP, I reckon Ludlum did go better than Milne the last time she was on it.
Whiney Pyney trying to “outgreen” Labor! The coalition has a policy? Does it have to do with your proposal for a “Green” paramilitary? Or is it the classical Liberal environmental policy:
1) Do nothing
2) Blame the ill effects on a minority!
centre
btw google “electric blue’ one day
oh the stories I could tell
******************** thru to dealing with 2 of the thugbys baddest lads and meeting dawn in the most unusual circumstances.
and in between looking after slim and eric
Pies Akerman on QandA next week. What a joke!
I just get linked to the wikipedia article for Icehouse’s Greatest Hits
John Elliott: “The election will be even money… and the polls say so, too.”
Ay?
TSOP
Flowers werent the stock in trade of this group
I still have a Flowers T shirt btw
Sounds like a typical party line you’d hear from any one on any side of politics.
Once a hack, always a hack…
Gusface, were they the Flowers or Icehouse when they released ‘Electric Blue’?
Interesting that even with the so-called dip in the Nielsen sprouted by the MSM, the odds at Centrebet have not moved from $1.22 ALP, $4.10 Coalition.
After John Elliot’s comments at the end of Q&A why doesn’t he have a lazy few thousand or so on the Libs if he is that confident.
994,
The were Icehouse, still have the cassette (my god, showing my age)
It’s their ABC.
Finally have seen a bit of Gillard’s speech.
She’s good. Really good.
It was Icehouse.
Heh, love it.
It’s not my talking point, it’s the talking point of millions of Australians. You WISH that Australians didn’t notice the flood of boatpeople since border protection was softened and the red carpet was rolled out, you WISH people would just shut up and stop talking about it… you WISH you could hide behind a iron curtin of secrecy, that Australians were not allowed to give their feelings on this topic.
But they’ve seen what the left have done… they’ve seen you absolutely stuff it up, and now… they are talking and you can’t stop them. They talk and they vote and it’s a problem the left can’t handle.
TSOP
Good Q
Frank will have the A
I remeber working when they were at the ANU back in 1980
they sang GSL but i dont remeber EB
Iva D was a frigging legend and next to Matt Finish the best we pumped out in the late 70′s early 80′s
BTW
electric blue was the female equiv of the chippendales/manpower
I am glad someone is starting to crackdown on the AVN. Antivaxxers=pseudoscientific nutters and death enablers!
Thanks for all the feedback on the ‘Electric Blue’ thing. I was a bit too young in the 1980s to have zealously followed the music scene at the time.
Right PB’s next week’s QANDA is a great opportunity to hammer twitter questions relating to Jabba the Hut’s shady past, is a subtly crafted way of course.
Jon
Coke adds life?
Well, tonight’s Q and A was informative, despite being filled with 4 leftists and 2 centrists
I’ll have a million with Elliot on Labor at even’s and a 250 grand on the Libs with the bookies at three’s thanks
That kind of defamation just leads to harassment and assault Gus, and that unlike climate change is hard to deny.
Gusface@1001
They were definately Icehouse at that stage and Electric Blue was their big US Hit.
And here they are on the Tonight Show with Johnny Carson.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPBi9WNECIM
Jon
its the bubbles that get me
Ha! An oldie but a goodie!
TSOP
delorean said he only liked to smell it
Jon
maybe if someone sent a Q from tony montana?
It’s only powdered sugar!
tsop
a good friend who sadly is gone, was involved in the delorean thingy
he told me how delorean was feted by society everywhere and the car was a cover for his operation
suppose we will never know
and to clarify brownie was a fed
or in those days a “plastic” as they were known
ie not real police just a copy
Well that’s going back to the future. Didn’t that debarcle shatter poor Maggie s dream.
Pebbles, saw Julia’s speech in its entirety today — and you have to give her credit — she knows how to connect with people and talk to them not at them.
Abbott has made an art of talking ‘at’ the electorate.
I was offended at SBS’s coverage in their news at 6:30 — they’d spliced the number of times she said ‘moving forward’ together to make it look ridiculous — when in truth the speech was very strong about who she is and what she stands for.
Slowly but surely EVERY news service is getting me off-side with their laziness and wowserism. When are they ever going to actually report the news as it is, not how they want it to be?
BK @ 989
Good Grief! I’ll have to disconnect the TV …
First ‘Insiders,’ and now ‘Q and A’ – what has the ABC been reduced to that Piers Ackerman gets a guernsey on these two ‘flagship’ national current affairs programmes?
There is an invasion happening all right, but it ain’t the armada of boats that Abbott keeps gibbering on about, it’s the phalanx of News Ltd hacks and reactionaries that now infest our national broadcaster. Just look at the recent roster of these drones and pinheads that regularly trumpet their obnoxious and biased opinions into our national discourse courtesy of the Australian taxpayer – Janet Albrechtsen, Miranda Devine, Gerard Henderson and now the egregious Piers on ‘Q and A’ and Bolt, Milne and the ubiquitous Piers on ‘Insiders.’
What next? Alan Jones? Howard Sattler? The Ghost of Stan Zemanek channelled through John Laws?
Bloody Hell! How can these lowest of the low be granted airtime for their poisonous beliefs at the public’s expense? They are getting us coming and going, spewing their calumnies into the public sphere via their News Ltd soapboxes, then having a second bite of us on the way back through courtesy of a supine and compromised ABC, slapping us in the face with their invoice as they chuckle past at our expense.
Democracy …. ain’t it grand!
Jon
the delorean thingy ultimately led to a few interesting antecedents much much later
think africa or its near island neighbours for a clue
and yes
The iron lady was less than amused as she was kept out of the loop re the ahem takedown of JD
Gus,
He’s not the sharpest tool in the shed, maybe from Pablo Escobar?
I was fighting very hard to avoid saying something like that!
It took all the power in me not to. All 1.21 gigawatts worth!
TSOP
the delorean was the ahem saviour of the new british auto industry
after leyland was gutted, maggie needed a show pony- real bad
too bad it was fine cotton
jenauthor 1018
I just admired how inspirational and classy it was. If she can make more speeches like that on the stump while campaigning (assuming they get covered) we may end up having some quotes for the history books. (Don’t want to jinx her of course)
Well Gus, maybe if they had marketed the inbuilt flux capacitors a bit better, it would’ve succeeded!
Only read back a couple of pages — has there been any commentary on the Essential poll?
TSOP
I have been in a delorean-pig of a car
I reckon they should have stuck with P76
It had a great boot
It was very briefly mentioned. I think the general consensus, is considering the parity of the Nielsen and galaxy, Essential is probably a rogue.
Also, all of the polling is shining for Labor. I think the mood now is waiting for Julia to fire the starting pistol, so we can win this thing.
Or the Marina, now that was an adventure in every drive.
Newspoll tomorrow is it?
Any predictions? Or will the MSM be very silent on it?
Jon
yee ha
best paddock basher we ever had
Was the marina allowed on the open highway?
i thought it was a factory to paddock model
jenauthor@1030
Held over for a week axccording to Mumble.
I think I heard they’re not going to do one until this weekend. Out of collusion with Nielsen, I believe. However, getting a snapshot of the commencement of the race is probably a secondary motive…
I noted Jamie Briggs, I think it was (Liberal?) on Agenda today. He sounded ‘defeated’ and his body language said the same.
Is the latest polling — though not ‘runaway’ affecting the Libs perhaps?
Where’s Truthy, GP and the others who were so full of relish the night it looked like Rudd was being removed? Do they now understand that with Abbott they are almost impossible to elect?
So much for the government’s AS plans being in tatters -
@ Frank
Most interesting … (grinning evilly — shame none of you can see it!)
With respect Jen I believe every Tory leaning bludger on this blog predicted the Libs would lose this election (whilst picking up seats). This includings TTH and GP.
I bet dollars to donuts that the internal polling situation is far more painful for the Libs than regular polling shows…
Gus,
I drove one from Sydney to Cairns, used over 12 litres of oil, spent more time fixing it than driving it! The wonderful technology of empire
Jon
Wow
contact the GBOR
I reckon thats a world record
tho we never ever drove the marina over 40 miles
It seemed to cry if you pushed it beyond its cruising speed
Hey maybe Tone is a marina
LOL
dum and mad best mates were ex pommies via woomera
britain would have had the first man in space if only they could figure out how to serve “elevenses” in a geostationary orbit
Oh the indignity of a faulty cup of tea
I couldn’t think of a more fitting auto analogy Gus, both functionally challenged in every way and destined after not many very uncomfortable miles for the scrap heap.
How did Q & A go tonite
didn’t tapes it cause Chris Pyne was on and I refuse to listen to that roitten upper class Pyne voice…a la Downer
seemed to me 5 panelsits advertised , 2 radical left Greens , 2 radical right Liberals and Chris Evans ,a guy who understands his porttfolio quite well i’ve seen in th Senate
so were any voters changed from tonite
Yes. Gotta love those Akkadians for what they introduced to the world!
Ron
Evans was eloquent, rational and compassionate. However, it didn’t go well with the audience – who were mostly very left wing. (Ludlum got the biggest applauses on the night)
Elliot was his usual disgusting self and Pyne struggled hard to spew the party lines.
You won’t see me poking fun at Pyne’s accent. I share that accent – which means I will probably never be electable for PM!
@ Glen
Ah but Glen … for a few minutes there I think they were fantasising that they might just win it (just like their fearless leader). That glimmer of hope was there for all to read.
@ Pebbles
But it’s all in the delivery … Chrissy annoys like a teething puppy. You, at least, sound rational most of the time!
Because it was senseless to knife a PM who was going to win the election anyway?
You can hear me???
*is scared*
To Speak of Pebbles
Posted Tuesday, July 13, 2010 at 12:21 am | Permalink
“Ron
Evans was eloquent, rational and compassionate. However, it didn’t go well with the audience – who were mostly very left wing. (Ludlum got the biggest applauses on the night) Elliot was his usual disgusting self and Pyne struggled hard to spew the party lines.”
thanks for that fedback Pebbles , appreciate it
Chris evans if one actualy listens to him n senate on A-S knows his job and peaks with compassion
He’s cricised Libs for unhumane Naru & TVP’s and dog whisling , and Greens for there on shore process ideas for encouaging more boat people to drown & potential of 000′s of boat peoples coming
Did he get these views accoss ?
and do people tink Q & A audiense gets nobbled both ways , and be bettr with none ?
(Pebbles , its not just Pynes accent , but PLUS that smug over bearing class look with th Downer type voice…so you fine
@ Glen
You see, that’s what I just don’t get.
All the Libs and many in the press press stood around like a mob of drunken teenagers going ‘do it! do it!’ And then when they did it, you all got shirty and noble.
The libs had a much better chance at doing well with the previous leader … but the right-wing faction (oh, sorry, it isn’t a faction they’re big L liberals — the libs don’t have factions or power-brokers, do they) slaughtered their leader over climate change.
Convince me of the essential difference between the two scenarios (and note – I wasn’t in favour of the change but once it had been done, I move forward).
Hypocritical much.
Q&A was just awful tonight. Wasn’t full of Labor stacks, but Greens stacks, which is even more intolerable than usual.
Who said knife him before an election?
I didnt Jen because he was still popular and he was ahead in the polls.
He’d have won anyway IMHO.
Metaphorically, though I’ve been told I am psychic
Why werent you in the audience GP, you’d have evened it up
You’re not that octopus are you? Because he scares me.
Please Glen, no truth allowed. It interferes with cult of Gillard, who actually seems to be doing worse in the polls than Rudd. She certainly made a embarrassing mess of the AS issue, making her look like an amateur. Labor officials will be very nervous about her from here until the election and especially hope she doesn’t make another mess with the CC policy
I wholeheartedly agree and I wasn’t talking about you personally — but the MSM and politicians from the conservative side.
But you have to admit, the press, and many libs were baying for blood. Every Julia press conference they asked if she was going to take over. You can’t tell me that that wasn’t a deliberate ploy.
They were orchestrating ‘news’. The trouble was, they got what they asked for and now it is back to square one for the conservatives.
And the Libs egged it on constantly.
Which is why TP they’ll go to the polls as quickly as they can the gutless wonders
Seriously.
Give.
It.
A.
Rest.
Octopuses are very smart but no, just a humble female egalitarian.
No 1055
Not when you have a panel with extreme left bias. Felicity Hampel? Lenore Taylor? Scott Ludlam? Chris Evans? Tony Jones?
Heck, even Pyne is leftist for a Liberal. John Elliot was imbecillic the entire time.
An awful, awful Panel.
Too bloody right I dont blame ya GP that’s why I didnt bother to watch either.
Haha. The cult of Gillard. You crack me up!
Not gutless wonders Glen. It’s called striking while the iron’s hot — and be thankful if they do go soon, it will give poor Tone less time to get caught out lying through his teeth.
Seriously, TP, what’s the point of talking this bullshit?
Gillard lies as much as Tone.
Both are bad, bad choices for the Australian people.
Either way we lose.
I only hope the Libs can pick up a few seats and prevent major losses.
Dishwasher has now finished its cycle — night all!
I might change my name to Octopussy for you Pebbles. I kinda like the idea that people might find me scary.
TP
1/ julia’s has increased Labor’s vote by at least 2% per polls
2/ i’ve explained prv to you why Julia approached Horta and not PM (having to go to Cabinet and then Parliament)…to get a politcal ”message’ out to swing voters
Per ACTUAL polls on A-S Q since , she has suceeded
you’ve missed both politcal points
and as I’m just back ar you same Thomas Paine as bfore , or Thomas Paine Mark 2
SNIP: See article 2 of comment moderation guidelines – The Management.
Just because I don’t hold a candle for Kevin Rudd and choose instead focus on the future, I am somehow a “cultist” or a “lockstep hack” or any of the other stupid names I have seen in the last two weeks.
I know politics is not a game for the faint at heart and you need thick skin. I am used to receiving labels from opponents, but this is just banal and completely idiotic!
Get a new theme, Tom Paine!
No, it will just remind me of one of my favourite Bond movies. (And an OK short story.)
Have a good night, Jen.
Remember the guy who used to post here who was always in touch with senior Labor Party officials over his wonderful, non specific, Far North Queensland scheme to save Australia?
Or the guy who had a you beaut Senate voting concept which was somehow involved with (I think) corrupt Victorian Upper House elections?
Well, I think we’ve got another one in the making.
Funnily enough, FS, I don’t remember the first of those.
Started with an S. Scarper?
yea
1073
I seem to remember that the second caused “Tully” to cause a comment to go into moderation for a time there.
Tony Delroy’s Issue of the Day – Election Speculation.
First caller an “ALP Member” – “Grave” concerns about Gillard.
Sounds like TP
Oh yes, I vaguely recall Scarper being … a bit unusual, without remembering any specifics.
1076
I don`t think that Gillard will occupy a grave any time soon.
better for you you dont remeber any more
Oh that’s an oldie!
“I am a supporter of X, but this time I will be voting for Y/I don’t think X can win”
Anyways even tho missed Q & A , as suggested from day one T think Julia delib “brought on” this whole A-S thingo , otherwise it would need to be faced in an election campiagn itself , so clever
Julia has addressed both middle oz concerns about boat peoples….1/ thought of boat peoples being unauthorized entering our mainland is like a burgular intruding ones home privacy space , and 2/ thought that th few people boats may end up as 000′s….a la 12 milion ilegal entrants in USA that public see is a problam in USA without proper border protection , and public dont similar here
and think Greens foolish idea of on shore process , giving visa’s so they go into comunity & maybe on welfair is next rebut for Labor , ire there idea means more boat peoples drown vs off shore process under UHRC
then Labor ‘message’ can go to GFC and low current unemploy % vs World and to workchoises
And Health, and Abbott’s slash and burn on health care while Minister, and Abbott and the Living Dead knifing Turnbull, and Liberal opposition to Bank Guarantees for mum and dad savings, and and Hockey and Abetz’ involvement with Grech, and Abbott’s first choice of Finance Minister “Gazzilions” Joyce, and his second choice “miracle Cure” Robb, and the ludecrous Tax Cut led recovery from recession proposal, and the squandering of the Future Fund on American Toxic Asset mortgages, and Costello’s foreign exchange roulette, losing billions, and … well …. they just being incompetent Liberal scoundrels.
Hmm.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/julia-gillards-special-health-deal-for-the-west/story-e6frgczf-1225890964082
A History and musical lesson.
When the subject of this article was a humble medical student.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/edelsten-to-sell-200m-chain-of-gp-clinics/story-e6frg6nf-1225890964220
He dabbled as a Record Producer and was involved in this Oz one hit wonder featuring the cream of Oz Pop of the time.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjI8crSWl5A
Good to see 7 News is up to its usual ‘high’ standard this morning by reporting that the Government is in ‘Damage Control’ over AS, because of the East Timor vote.
I’d say ‘damage control’ is a fair assessment of the consequences of a total stuff up. Unless of course you’re in the ‘Labor can do no wrong, particularly under St Julia camp’ that most posters here seem to be honorary members of. If Abbott had come up with such an ill-conceived so called policy, you’d all be deriding him from here to eternity.
It’s a measure of the deterioration of this blog that Glen is one of the few here making any sense, along with Thomas Paine.
1073
Scaper.
and of course your good self?
Adrian, you confuse the E Timor parliament with the government’s position. Not the same thing. Did you not listen to Smith’s comments?
Wouldn’t the East Timorese Parliament need to pass legislation to allow the regional processing centre to operate?
Anybody’s guess – my guess is no.
Graham Morris and Annie Overall (I think) on Agenda this morning havce been very genuine and informative about the upcoming election.
Has Abbott repeated his cry “You’ve got to send the boats back” in the last 24 hours? Since his admission that “You can’t turn every boat back” he’s become rather quiet on the issue.
Tony Abbott to give a media statement at 9am. According to ABC he’s opening the officeof their Eden Monaro candidate, but what’s the bet he has some climate change announcement?
Ciobo says that the Libs’ campaign will be based on “Who do you trust?’.
Haven’t we heard this somewhere before?
1086
Abbott and Policy- now there’s 2 words you don’t see together very often!
‘Who Do You Trust’ would be a terrible campaign slogan for Abbott. His honesty (a self confessed fibber) and his rolled gold guaranteed (broken) promise on Medicare are just 2 examples where he will be attacked mercilessly. A better slogan for him might be ‘Let’s Turn Back Time’.
The Age reports that legislation would be needed, and that Gusmao usually gets his way in the end.
Yep what I love is the continous reference to the views of the Australian people as “dog whistling” by the left on this show.
The lefties claim if you try and represent the views of the majority of Australians than you are “dog whistling” and that their views are xenophobic, fear driven and without logic and Australians are too dumb to have an opinion on anything that doesn’t match their viewpoint and need to be “educated”(maybe a Stalin style “re-education camp” is in order in the views of the left?)
BUT if you represent the values of a few snivelling latte socialists, thats alright, the lefties are allowed to have an opinion and it has nothing to do with being based on rherotic, idealogy or group think.
It’s much like how the lefties claim that boaties are a real issue. If they aren’t a big issue the lefties should shut up, sit back and let us take care of them. Of course they ARE a big issue to the lefties, which is why they can’t keep their snivelling noses out of it.
I don’t know about anybody else, but if Abbott came up with something like that, I’d see it as a massive improvement on his current ‘strategy’. Working with regional partners to come up with a solution is far more sensible than a “We’ll turn the boats back” mantra.
Ultimately, we have a situation where national sentiment (a broad “we don’t want them” instinct) is at odds with both the reality of the situation and our obligations – be they moral or legal. It’s a very tough nut to crack.
Of course, punters – and media – always seem to expect that any political problem should be neatly solved within two days to universal acclaim – otherwise it has failed. And that only one side – the party in power – needs to put any flesh on the bones of their policy. The other side can make any ridiculous claim it likes without scrutiny.
That’s as may be – oppositions only need to oppose. But criticism of a policy is pointless if the alternative is not required to be at least as well thought out. And it never seems to be.
1892CFC
I read of every bit of it and all of it made sense. Taa
Abbott conference from Liberal Eden-Monaro candidate David Gazard’s new office on now.
“We cannot win the election, unless we win Eden-Monaro”
“On election night we will see a change of member in Eden-Monaro, and a change of Government”
“This has been a seriously bad Government… Kevin Rudd, Kevin Rudd, Kevin Rudd…”
“This Government has lost it’s way somewhere, somewhere in the sea, between here and East Timor”
“It couldn’t give away free pink batts or give money to our schools”
“Unlike the Government, we have a strong plan. A strong plan for border protection. A strong plan for emissions. A strong plan for getting the budget back into surplus”
“It’s up to us to fix it, and fix it we will”
That’s it.
Truthy
I know of a young Iraqi physiotherapist who was held on Nauru. He suffered phosphorous poisoning. He was residing at the Princess Alexander hospital in Brisbane. Yes, he was residing at the PA. They would shuffle him around to available beds & the welfare money he got went to the hospital. I think he received $20 or similar as pocket money.
It (phosporous)destroyed him & one does wonder how many others suffered something similar.
I contacted the ABC a couple of years ago about it as a potential story and they chose to ignore it.
I know a giant floating pontoon processing plant in International waters (kind of like those whaling ships) to process asylum seekers. It would have 4 jetties with a boat leaving each day. 1 to Aus, 1 to NZ, 1 to E.Timor, and 1 back where they came from.
Thomas Paine @ 1057
I am not sure in which parallel universe you are residing, but it is certainly bizarre. Which part of the following don’t you understand – 52% to 48% TPP to the ALP in Nielsen in July, up from 47% to 53% in June, Gillard ahead of Abbott by 20+ points in the preferred PM stakes, up 10 points from the last Rudd poll, ALP primary vote up 6%.
By what measure known to science in this universe can these results be construed as ‘worse in the polls?’
Tony ‘Who Do You Trust’ Abbott, he has about 5 banal things to say and just pads them with ahhs and ums.
Inspires me to write some Abbott software, would only need about 50 lines, not much memory and would involve very little processing power.
BK – that sounds a bit foolish. Imagine the ads showing Abbott spouting forth all his fibs and then ‘lie’ written above his head. Or a piccie of Grech, Turnbull, Hockey and Abetz.
They need something better than that.
You mean like how we did with the Pacific Solution?
Labor and it’s lot are all over the shop with this one
Who Do You Trust? That was Howard’s final campaign slogan. Big mistake.
Maybe they ignored it because it’s rot.
There were Aussies working at the Nauru detention centre, if there was a story in it we would have heard about it by now.
There’s always this as a campaign poster.
He keeps putting boats as the most pressing issue facing the country. We couldn’t sink any lower than electing such a person prime minister.
Are boats and economic management are the only issues where they lead Labor?
Abbott has no credibility on economic matters – I doubt he could even hold up one side of a debate with a year 12 economics student.
Tom Hawkins
This is why I get so frustrated. The ALP are bad at blowing their own trumpet. The fact that the Rabbott is believed to lead in economics demonstrates the failure of the ALP to promote what they have actually done for Aussies with the economy, re: GFC.
Howard was able to sell his failures as successes. We can’t even sell our successes.
Tsopebbles @944. That’s been precisely the problem for while. Labor has not sought to explain and educate since the GFC. We are now hearing more Ministers actually speaking and making a lot of sense about their own areas of policy. What a pity Kev wanted to do it himself most of the time.
Craig Emerson was good again this morning followed by Ciobo. The younger liberal pollies all seemed to have been cloned.
It’s not so much that Abbott is a liar. It’s more that the truth is a variable to him, not a constant. The media let him get away with being a moving target because his position is so weak to start with. He needs the help. He says whatever he needs to say to get through the interview or presser of the moment. He relies on the power of the confessional – political or religious – for forgiveness, and then moves on to the next thought bubble, leabving his critics arguing behind him over just what he meant by the previous thought bubble.
He realises it’s so much easier to say “I’ll turn the boats back” and leave that statement there as a hand grenade than it is to rebut it. Rebutting it requires logic and reason and someone willing to go through the steps. Saying it in the first place requires only 5 seconds of air time. It can be qualified later, after it’s had its effect on the target audience.
Everything Gillard (or Rudd before her) says is analysed forensically. Journos telephone East Timorese MPs to get their views, send camera crews to hear their denunciations. But Abbott’s sayings are just let through to the keeper, without very much analysis at all.
We we hear “At least you know where Tony stands” that means not that we know what his words mean, because they’re gibberish. It means we know he’s a reactionary conservative, and whatever he does will end up being along those lines in broad brush, not in detail.
As I said it’s a sign that the media think his position is very weak. He needs every excuse accepted in his favour, every leg-up he can muster to be even competitive, to even register as a blip on the political horizon. Every now and again something he utters resonates and he might develop the theme for a while – a few days, even a few weeks – but in the end all his words are disposable, designed to keep him alive, even though he’s on media life-support.
“One day at a time” is Tony’s motto. He’s probably got it printed out and framed up on an office wall somewhere.
We cannot win the election, unless we win Eden-Monaro”
NO CHANCE one of his first thought bubbles was down size the commonwealth public service.
hE HAS NO plan as now he says well er um you cannot turn back all the boats. when is the media going to say that
Poor old Thomas is blinded by bitterness. That’s why I regretfully scroll past his posts now where once I used to read them with interest. Look, I too grieve for Kevin Rudd’s political career. He was an outstanding PM who I don’t believe deserved to be taken down by the Party. But he was being torn limb-from-limb by ‘our’ godawful, venal media. They wouldn’t have ALLOWED him to win the election, no matter how worthy he was of doing that. So a change of leaders was necessary, if only to shut the toxic media up for a while. There’s no going back now, so I’m fully behind Julia as the new leader. We certainly do not want to be dragged back into the Dark Ages under the miserable Liberals. Our kids – and their kids – do not deserve to inherit the conditions the Liberals would wish on them.
@triton/1109,
It means they can’t think up a policy to compete with Labor Government, so they have to go with the “boats are coming” fear.
He probably doesnt remember what he said re trust
and wasnt that howard slogan something like that.
No new thoughts even about a campaign slogan
His final successful campaign slogan, that is. It’s the one he beat Latham over the head with.
Can’t see Abbott succeeding with it, though. It’s more of a “stick with what you know” strategy.
Who do you trust? The man you can only trust if he’s reading a prepared statement, that’s who. Yeah, that one’ll fly.
Cuppa Re T.P
i can remember him saying weeks ago that perhaps we should change to Julia
i was quite astonished as i did not think it was a reality at the time.
Then it happened and he changed ??? why???
Yes i use to read his blogs on the money matters mmm
I thought it was this one?
Well, it’s really scraping the bottom of the barrel if he thinks this is his best chance of winnig an election, and the country will be down there with him if it works.
Yesterday I complimented the announcement of the Victorian RRL plan as a good idea. It still is. But this is a bad news story that was totally avoidable, about a resident only finding out their house will be resumed from the media:
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/residents-not-told-their-homes-will-go-20100712-107w1.html?autostart=1
It is (used to be) standard practice in most government transport agencies that such announcements only got made (just) after residents were told privately first. That is precisely to avoid this sort of story. If in this case some media minders thought it would be better to put of such contact, they were sadly mistaken. The RRL project is not a secret – it has been announced and funded. What was the point of creating this sort of risk simply so the Premier’s anouncement will have no spoilers?
Also, if ever there was a good illustration of why politicians need to plan adn preserve transport corridors when subdivision happens, not later when houses are built on the required land, this is it. In this area of practice we have gone backwards in my working lifetime. Developers pay off (sorry, make donations to the campaign of) politicians who make sure such conditions are not imposed on the developers. Worst case, really desperate pollies like Bannon and others sell off corridors already acquired. Then years later, another government acquires more cost and public opposition that was totally avoidable when the project needs doing. If we are going to keep growing our population, we need to plan for future transport requirements. That means preserving corridors to build them in, or being prepared to wear a lot more flak and cost.
… And his posts about the way the media operates, and the agenda of the conservatives as regards IR, showed great insight which aided in my own understanding of the issues. Shame he’s got a bee in the bonnet. I can understand how he feels about Kevin Rudd being knifed (god, I hate that word), but, to me, the crucial matter right now is keeping the Liberals out. I will not stand by while the miserable Abbott and his misfits plot and plan to render our kids as virtual farm animals (as Thomas put it) for the exploitation of big business. And that they’d kill off our burgeoning high-speed broadband network, which the country NEEDS to move ahead in globally-competitive terms, is despicable and unconscionable.
Gillard about to hold a press conference.
He has no plan at all now that he said wtte you cannot turn back all the boats.
so that is NO policy
rang the abc to point this out this morning and they hung up on me can you beleive that.
[confessions
Posted Tuesday, July 13, 2010 at 10:24 am | Permalink
Gillard about to hold a press conference.}
CAN WE HAVE THE LINK
I’m just getting a sine wave from audio of the ABC live stream of the waiting journalists.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/
just a room fool of them at the moment
Notice how the Liberals have spun it so that LABOR is depicted as the party of spin. It’s actually the other way around. The fact that they can turn reality on its head again and again shows what an insidious, lying, spin-driven party it really is.
Sky is going to get awfully boring through this election. Gilbert parked himself outside Govt. House early today and blahed on for ages, now blahing on waiting for PM for press conference. If only they had something to say instead of contradicting themselves every few minutes.
Come on Julia – get started. OH just said ‘press mute’. Why didn’t I think of that! Derrr.
Gillard on now. Expanding the educaton tax rebate.
Education tax refunds. Important, but a little deflating in the current environment.
Uniforms to be part of the Education Tax Refund
Weird way to kick off the “campaign” to be honest.
Small things that help with the cost of living should not be underestimated.
No, of course not, but when everyone is expecting an election to be called any day and a press conference is called, a policy announcement on the education tax refund doesn’t really cut it.
“Sky is going to get awfully boring through this election. Gilbert parked himself outside Govt. House early today and blahed on for ages, now blahing on waiting for PM for press conference. If only they had something to say instead of contradicting themselves every few minutes. ”
This is the problem with SKY and the new ABC 24hr channel. so much time to fill but so little news and content to fill it with. no worries just make it up , create debates look for gaffes for the all important breaking news. Result politician manage for these channels. It is not govt advertising that is a cancer on democracy is it 24 hr news which is.
Couldn’t agree more, triton.
ABC 24hr channel is rubbish because you can only tape it if you have an HD DVD recorder!
When is APAC coming online FTA around Australia?
Betcha the little luvvies will be mad that they’ve been called to a presser where they expected to hear an election date and haven’t.
great initiative i remember when i was at school in the fifties you could do that
i remember my father making sure he had all the receipts and they where still in is file when i cleaned up his room amazing.
Note that Julia said not all parents claimed re books yet another thing
the media did not talk about.
of course they will not be interested in this they will move on to more pressing issues
re A.S
i
Mums will love Julia for this it was a nightmare we used to lay by for 6 months before and then the children would grow etc school shoes where such a problem.
IT will be great there will be no excuse for dressing kids in hoodies
Will there be a text of this interview so we can see what the journalist ask and what
Julia said its the best way to know everything instead reading newspapers
will it be on the gov web site.??
love the way she handles questions.
I think i have quessed labor slogan
any takers
Taking Australia Forward
yes me to so much so i rang my son in law to turn on his computer o well
good for them their first one starts kinder next year full uniform required
Julia reminds me of Paul Keating when he talked to the media he often said
Now read my lips
i said such and such next now she is just like a headmisteress keep it going Julia
wow
yes glen but get one you can tape and watch other things we do
Depends who you are trying to communicate with, this along with the one yesterday have a common theme, a personalisation of JG. Presenting a positive and personal front presents a stark contrast to Abbott.
I wish all pb could listen to this julia giving it to them making sure they hear what she is saying go julia.
and she is naming who she will talk to hahah they have to take their turn.
Wow bh hope you are watching this wish we could see the looks on faces
the Young people will love this message the best days are in front of us
O so they should be its up to us and the gov., we elect
compare that to abbotts fear re A.S
She’s been repeating that since she became PM, so it’s probably something like that. It’s a pretty good one IMO, since it contrasts well with the backwards-looking Tony Abbott. I can’t believe that Abbott’s slogan will be within galaxies of the notion of “trust”. That would be like putting a sign on hmself saying “Hit me”. They can’t be that stupid.
Labor’s election slogan = “Mulligan”
Liberal’s election slogan = “Mulligan”
Sometimes I have to remind myself that government is not about addressing serious issues like climate change. It is about getting re-elected with continually expanded middle class welfare.
If I ever hear another person complain that Howard and Costello wasted the mining boom with middle class welfare I’ll….
$220 million dollars on school uniforms and cut $70 million dollars from the natural environment budget. This govt has screwed priorities.
Centrebet have got their first electorate betting up.
Bass and Bennelong – ALP firm favorite in both
The most interesting thing about today’s Gillard press conference: of the 25 questions asked, only one about asylum seekers towards the end and she nailed it. It was all education, health, the future, candidates, communication, dialogue – campaign questions.
Abbott’s speech this morning? Labor kicked out Kevin Rudd and they can’t control the borders, we’re better on the economy, and he quickly walked off before any questions.
Julia mentioned Mr hawke interesting , he was i would say from memory the best negotiator we had now julia will be for this centuary
The greens should be happy about what she is saying re climate change.
working their way through these issues to get it fight wtte
I wonder why Australians, particularly the males, are so gullible on so called border protection. The comments by centaur 009 are a case in point. 90% of the Australians whose ancestors arrived here over only six generations ago actually came in chains on convict ships. So we are not only a nation built by boat people-who stole an entire continent from the people who were already here-but we carry the historical burden of being chained and kept in slavery. No wonder Australians want to recycle the abuse and violence onto other humans. Send the boats back to where? Afghanistan where they can be shot by Australian ‘diggers?’ To Sri Lanka where a genocide against Tamils has occurred with the blessing of the OZ govt( standards are very low for govts these days. It is generally those who shout the loudest) Or maybe to Iraq where the rivers are running with blood, raw sewerage and oil amidst the screams of women and children being raped by the foreign armies there to prop up US control of oil and to have a good time while they are about it.
The current propaganda campaign by the ALPs might look fresh to genx/yers . But to baby boomers we have been there before . it was called the white australia policy and at the saturday matinees we had to stand to pledge allegiance to the queen.Then came Vietnam and schoolfriends returning in boxes, dead from defending democracy to the multitudes to our north. It was a different era people could still think for theirselves. Stop work to stop the war was one slogan. Whitlam came to power on a platform of ending Australias deputy sheriff role to the US.
Gutless Gillard is going to an election on a support our boys over there jingism. This govt of faceless untalented men is intending to go way further to the right than Abbott could even dream about.
my say – her climate change “answers” won’t please the Greens. They won’t please anyone really. She didn’t answer them.
[Posted Tuesday, July 13, 2010 at 11:01 am | Permalink
$220 million dollars on school uniforms and cut $70 million dollars from the natural environment budget. This govt has screwed priorities.]]
may be you dont have to spend money on clothes for children every day
great priority for mums sometimes thats where mums pay goes to e.g if you have three children all at school at the same time it never ends.
Go Julia
You obviously don’t have a big school uniform bill.
Nor will Tony Abbott’s.
What does Eden Monaro look like?
Every time Julia calls a presser now, people think she will call the election, thus working a few people up into a lather
I love it!
She has everyone wrapped around her little finger
That being said, just call the election already Jules!
She will lead and work through them if she had answered some half backed policy
the msm would be on to her like AS and Timor.
Julia is a smart lady she will announce things when they are done and dusted
Abbott on now: “l..l…l…look, I…I…I…I…but…but…but….but”
ANd we have a whole campaign of this to look forward to.
typo correction to get it right
The govts job is to do things that can’t be done by individuals and families and to provide a safety net for those doing it tough. Everytime the govt tries to mollycoddle people to get votes it takes public money away from essential public good activities. It also sets very bad expectation about the role of government and what government can achieve.
No but I have a big nappy bill. Where is my tax break for that?
Not that the questions would have been very pressing anyway …
LOL Abbott asked if he’ll be turning away people at airports. The media have finally cottoned onto his turning boats around is a joke.
confessions 1161,
Not up on Centrebet yet, but Sportingbet has ALP $1.40, LNP $2.75
just wish i new how old you are. I am 60 and have children with children to tell you the truth climate change is now about 10th on their list i dont they think about it atall
sorry.
But if you tell my daughter with three children she will get help with the uniforms.
Well then perhaps she may be able to grow more vegetables get some solar heating etc\\BLUE GREEN ITS SWINGS AND ROUNDABOUTS WITH FAMILIES
YOU ONLY HAVE ONE INCOME AND YOU HAVE TOSPREAD IT WHERE YOU HAVE TO
thats life.
[No, of course not, but when everyone is expecting an election to be called any day and a press conference is called, a policy announcement on the education tax refund doesn’t really cut it].
This is the only way Gillard can get positive announcements out into the media, especially so, whilst the media are salivating for an election announcement.
She’s using the media. Hooray!
I also read alot to my children each night. Do I get or need a tax break for those books I buy.
Maybe I could claim the time spent as a parent teaching my kids stuff like an education expense. Let me see two hours per night at ~$30 per hour for 200 hundred nights a year.
I should be able to write off around $12,000 off my tax bill.
did he have answer written down on parchment paper.
Gillard smiles and laughs easily
Some pretty innane questions
blue_green i hope you are using cloth and not contributing to landfill with that huge nappy bill. there are some wonderful new cloth nappies that are shaped just like a disposable with velcro etc.
i think the govt should give a rebate to parents who buy these new brilliant re-useables (about a $700 outlay), and try and stop nappies filling landfill.
Well fed, clothed and educated kids are a reasonably essential public good activity.
Agree, but aren’t they already well fed, clothed and educated.
mysay – yep I watched it and she is really natural when she laughs at any ‘funnies’ made by the journos. I wished we’d had all this Govt. help when our kids were small. In those days it was a measly 5/- for the first kid per fortnight and less for any others.
Just listening to Ken Henry being sort of abused by that Cormann fella from WA
Why middle man…are we running out of landfill? please!
Bring on the debates.
Wonder if the Rabbott is going to be as keen as he was in the recent past to do head to head debates.
We need to have debates between the ministers with senior portfolios. This will show just how inept the Rabbott’s front bench is.
the spectator 1138
Agree with this sentiment!
BEFORE Julia/Kevin haters jump in , let me repeat what i said a week ago on CC
there will be NO Julia promise of any price on carbon !
With 52/48 (similar to 2007 when Labor won by 7 seats) , BUT down by 3.5% Primary vote , then marginals ar tight and thee’s over 20 of thems , election can be close….and given Liberals and Greens with lies over ETS attacked Labor from both left and right , they aint getting a 2nd chanse to do so in an electon campiagn !
Labor will prob offer direct CC action plus tax incentives for R E & seek consenus for an ETS….so th CC hypocrits like j/v here who suported wrecking Kevin07′s ETS CC mitigation starting in this country can bleet bercause its there foolish idealistic fault
I am with you on this one. I don’t get the focus on nappies and landfill. They are a small part of the waste stream, insignifcant compared with food and garden waste.
They’ll just keep regurgitating the same news over, over, over…………
“running out of landfill”?? now that is an interesting comment in itself… so i guess we can dump our human waste into the sea cos we aint running out of sea either??
hmmm….
Labor’s election slogan = “look over there”
Liberal’s election slogan = “look over there”
I can think of a few slogans for Abbott:
- taking Australia backward
- giving you what you rejected before
- my beliefs will guide us all
TP’s election slogan: “Bah humbug.”
ever heard of the term biodegradeability??
and any way it is soooooooo much cheaper.
Not to mention the energy and water wasted and detergent used to clean the cloth ones
gloryconsequence @ 1155
This is why the ALP will be re-elected, An entire campaign cannot be sustained on fear mongering and negativity without a substantive external element to back up the hatred and loathing, and unless there is some sort of major terrorist attack (the Gods forbid) there is nothing for the Opposition to hang their reactionary narrative on except a few leaky boats with a handful of forlorn asylum seekers.
Despite the best efforts of the Opposition and their henchmen in the Murdoch media to dumb down our national discourse, the Australian people remain canny enough to smell the stale and rotten goods being recycled from 2001 here by Tony Abbott.
There will be some individuals who will swallow the tawdry Abbott rhetoric of an ‘armada’ of swarthy queue jumpers invading our sovereignty as they swarm off the boats like D-Day, but the vast majority of voters will make a sober, if not always well informed decision on the issues that matter to them – the Economy and how it is managed, Health Care, Hospitals and Education, and Jobs.
On these bread and butter issues, the ALP has the upper hand, and no amount of monstering of asylum seekers by the Abbott Opposition will convert enough votes to win Government.
As Maxwell Smart would say, ‘the forces of goodness and niceness will triumph over the forces of evil and rotten-ness.’
blue-green – what’s wrong with you. Why buy them. Go to the nearest Library which will have hundreds of fabulous books for babies to youths. It saves a lot of money for your nappy bill.
Here’s another thought if you are so environmentally concerned and aware. Do what mysay and I did years ago. Use cloth nappies and wash them. Nothing better than nappies fluttering in the breeze with all that lovely sun to dry them properly. Cheaper in the long run than filling big holes with millions of disposable nappies.
BH runs for shelter as blue-green whacks her on head!!
What cheaper than Aldi brand?….I don’t think so
you may mix in different circles than some of us. I know heaps of people that would
love this and NEED it .
If you are dressed nicely and warm re your stocking ( which i had to buy at least 3 pairs a week) the thick type in tas.
And school shoes some times 6 a year and the blazers they about 250 dollars now
school shoes good ones 80 dollars tunic the boys jumpers blazers
Then there is the thier sport gear track pants runners tops raincoats and list goes on
and if the children all look the same they feel equal that is what Julia is trying to say then there is criticism of other pupils clothes re designer labels etc.
WE went through that one too but i never gave in but o my gosh its harder now.
people who have not done this over the years really have no idea
And thats not a criticism it just a fact none of us know things we have not done or faced
but some times when things come to us we understand.
As i soon found out when i had to put all four parents in nursing homes.
Then that was another life experience, so we all have turns at things we dont care about now Perhpas.
I would like to buy my wife a birthday present. Birthday presents are good for relationships and good for families. What is good for families is good for the country.
Where is my tax break for buying my wifes birthday present?
I promise it will be educational.
all plant based fully biodegradeable detergents, water collected from the roof. energy to run my washing machine is much less than running a plant to product nappies.
producing each disposable nappy uses more water and energy, and produces more harmful pollutants via bleaching than washing one in a washing machine.
How many wifes do you have?
BH- a predictor of whether children will be intelligemt or not is if you have a lot of books in your house (intelligent if you do). Borrowing just won’t cut it.
One wife is enough thanks. Her grammar and punctuation is as good as mine.
we never had a book in our home well may be three, and our grandchildren dont have many either they grow tired or them
GEE THATS WHY WE GO TO THE LIBRAY EVERY SATURDAY MORNING ON THE WAY TO MINKEY HOCKEY
teaching my children to read was a pleasure i was so proud they could all read before they went i never ever thought about in doillars and cents.
How about doing all the housework or something like that. Do it all in an apron with a big bow tied around you! Any wife would love that if you’re short of the readies.
Lots of small decisions made by enough of us can make a difference. If we sit around waiting for politicians to come up with a solution to pollution, waste, global warming etc, we’ll be long gone…
Life’s too short midde-man to wash nappies. For all of USA waste for 100 years at current levels you need about 25 square kms. That is so negligable in view of the size of the place.
I see Abbott’s next policy: tax subsidies for aprons, irons and ironing boards
ah the myth of “time poor”…. do you not wash your other clothes?? it takes one load every 2 or 3 days. barely 5 mins work. its not like we have to scrub our clothes clean on a rock by the river… good god some people are ridiculous.
BH,
I like buying books. We read them over and over. We also share with friends though.
On cloth nappies. We tried them with number one but living in an apartment with nazi strate managers made it impossible. The clothesline was generally too full and they would let it dry them on racks in our outdoor clothes racks.
As an environmental type, I looked into the disposable versus cloth issues. It seems to depend where you live on the relative cost/benefits. If you water is energy intensive and you live somewhere where landfill is a massive issue then cloth wins. But otherwise it pretty much of a muchness. For cloth you still have to use the water and belach etc and if you wash in hot water then you have the energy costs etc.
Silly argument that one. Hairy Mcleary is hardly a viable tax deduction. Did you know that a lot of school uniforms are a big source of income to school P&C’s? So this is also about enabling parents to buy more of them and will directly channel money into schools.
Nappy bill you must be joking i laybyed 6 doz when i had to give up work because i was a public servant ( mandatory then)
and that was it they where put out on the line Evey morning we took it in turns.
i was actually was proud of it the neighbours would know i had a little one.
just go and buy some real nappies you only have one expense then.
yes our school still has one and the ladies volunteer and now they may be able to put say 50 cents on some on the price of each item and buy book for the library
TPs election slogan = I spat my dummy and now I can’t find it! Boo Hoo.
Well, yes we are running out of landfill.
Tips are horrendously expensive to run, mainly because of increasing environmental regulations to limit seepage and other pollution emanating from them.
It’s also almost impossible to find suitable tip sites (and I’m talking based on my experience on a shire in the Victorian country) for much the same reasons.
Most shires now don’t run tips at all. They run collection sites, and then ship their waste to a central landfill.
The costs of collecting, processing and disposing of garbage are horrendous. The biggest tender I dealt with on council was in the order of several million dollars (over five years) – our yearly budget for the entire shire was $20 m.
I did end up using disposables on my second child but if I’d understood the issues better I wouldn’t have.
As for school uniforms – having just humiliated myself by ringing the school and asking them to excuse my son wearing runners because that’s all we can afford at the moment, and been given a voucher for the local shoe store as a result, I’m all for it.
The cost of uniforms is outrageous. It’s not as bad for me as for some others, as I have boys and they can be largely clothed off the rack at Target (even then, a school jumper sets you back $60), but girls usually have specific cloth designated for dresses and skirts and must be bespoke.
It’s absolutely nuts that an item which has nothing to do with their learning costs so much and is treated as compulsory.
Jon
you missed
Hairy McLary from Donaldsons Dairy, Schnitzel Von Krum with a very low tum, Bitzer Maloney all skinny and boney, Herculens Morse as big as a horse, Muffin Mcleay or covered in hay etc…
Not really my favorite. I reckon Mark Latham in his prime (reading books to kiddies in daycare) should have introduced a kiddies books tax break. It send a really strong signal that education is not just about schools and teachers it is also about what parents can and should do.
centaur009 – Haha – but this house is full of them and yet I still buy more because I can’t resist them.
When our kids were young the pennies were low so we hiked off to the Library. It was cheap entertainment on Saturday mornings and kept the kids quiet for yonks. They now have houses full of books themselves and every time they come here we’re told which books are to go to which kid. I wish they’d wait until we’re in our boxes!
blue-green, the new style of re-useable nappies dont require bleaching. only a mild plant based detergent that can go onto my garden.
i just happen to believe that we should endeavour to minimise our “usage” of resources. I dont believe that the earth and its resources are here to “service” me to a level which reduces me to mere consumer, and reduces me to a non-thinking participant of the planet.
and no i’m not some weirdo green voting hippy. i work in a very “capitalist” type of industry. with appropriate thought and consideration i think the human race can evolve and improve but it shouldn’t require irreparable damage to do so.
There are some excellent nappy services available. Cloth nappies without the front line exposure that is so retch inducing in us delicate types.
When we used the service, it worked out to be cheaper than the disposable nappy option. That was over a decade ago though.
I rather like the Fred Nile party’s stated objective: “To promote the true welfare of the people of Australia through all legislation being brought into conformity with the revealed will of God in the Holy Bible.” I wonder if Abbott agrees with this.
Tom/Adam/Frank election slogan = “Drink up men and women of Australia…Free Kool-Aid for ALL!”
If Abbott is silly enough to run with a “Who do you Trust” slogan for the election then all labor has to do is wheel out that footage of him from the Republic campaign where he banged on ad nauseum about “you can’t trust a politician”.
BH
we have a tradition in our family that when someone ‘departs this vale of tears’ you get first dibs on any gifts you gave them whilst they were still in a receptive mode.
My mother broke the news that my father was dying to us girls by telling us to buy him a nice gardening book for his birthday!
This debate (nappies and uniforms) has been as fun as one that we had here yonks ago about the best way to kill blackberries.
Or gospel Tony from 730Report Land eh Henry
Nobody really trusts politicians. They just hope they dont do a bad job.
blue_green @ 1214
If I remember correctly it was his policy to just give away a certain number of books to parents for free each year.
You kill blackberries???? You bastards!!!!
i have not washed in hot water for 45 years and i use to buy velvet soap
and grate it on a grater and melt in hot water.
Gee this generation dont know they are alive.
We had no disposable nappies, and you tip some down the loo and then soak the rest and its only 2 years all ours where trained by then.
Hand wash them if you are worried about the amount you use
but another thing you can buy a nappy bucket fill it with carb soda and vinegar
this is very cheap way to do it. In fact all my cleaning is done with Carb soda and vinegar. the oven and the dishwasher gets a good rinse through once a week with nothing in it on a short cycle with vinegar in the rinse area and carb soda in the detergent area and lately i have only been using carb soda in the wash container
when you are thinking about pension you have to think of all these ideas.
there is a great naturual book you can buy from the abc shop i may not be allowed to tell you who it is here i would need Williams permission.
She is a lady who talks on local radio dont listen to now so now sure she still does.
then there is another based here in hobart who wrote a great book about preseverving and jams etc thats another way for you save money
saving money and doing thing s another way is often challangine and good fun
in the local mercury yesterday there is a story where lots of families are moving here
but because of it the homes are going up in price there was a story about a sydney couple who lived in an appartment they are so excited it showed their modest home and their new vegie garden and all the family have now moved down.
Now that another thought for you .
So now you are arguing for a tax break? We buy a lot of ours from lifeline book fest secondhand and then once they are well used, we recycle them.
haha. well said my say!
my wife wants a cleaner but i have this deep belief that where possible we should clean up our own mess. it teaches people about being accountable.
blue-green – point taken about trying to use cloth in a strata apartment. Too much stress on a marriage there but Zoomster has point about the tips.
If you live in the city you rarely see one now but in this small rural area the Council has put in a new tip. An average of 194 huge trucks a day go into the tip. Amazing!
Jon, do you go to the big Vinnie’s book sale they have in bris? they are massive and a great place to get books.
Not up to your usual standard, Glen. Now you’re an independent you have to think for yourself.
This video would be effective too, IMO. Bit long for an ad, though …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvYzLIywCiA
Z00mster
thanks – great idea. By order of the parents, a definite goer here.
Did Abbott take any questions today or did he just walk away after his sloganfest.
Gillard happy clappers in full swing I see. I wonder if there is a policy, no matter how far to the right they would object to. Normally in a religion people will take what ever they are told.
This pinata needs to be beaten a bit more.
Abbott took questions. He was pointedly asked if he intended to turn around people at airports.
Well, we in NSW haven’t had one of these for, what, a week or so:
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/tripodi-referred-to-corruption-watchdog-20100713-108jn.html
I remembered I supervised a tree planting day in Western Sydney once. As the sun was beating down I asked the teacher why the kids weren’t wearing hats. I was shocked when she said that they dont require them to wear hats outside because they know the parents cant afford them.
This tax break wont do a thing for these guys because all of theseparents will be under the tax free threshold.
Here you go Thomas, I vote Labor but think $800 for uniforms just adds to the middle class welfare handed out in this country. I’d like to see her announce cuts to middle class welfare, including getting rid of the tax benefits of negative gearing investment property.
But will it change my vote? no. there is far too much policy from the opposition that i cant swallow.
Look, I am still young (early-mid thirties) and haven’t developed a fully-fledged and solid political philosophy yet. Expect more inconsistency from me over the next few years.
This story is jsut starting in WA, and will put pressure on Labor to not let the Australain CO2 emissions issue continue to get worse: WA govt is approving three new coal fired power stations.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/mp/7572190/state-govt-backs-coal-power-projects/
(There is a story on Rooted about this where I just posted a similar comment.)
This is a terrible policy decision, aided and abetted by federal Labor’s climate change weakness. The state with the best gas resources, and good wind resources in the SW coast, is planning to exploit low grade coal deposits. (The Collie fields have low grade sub-bituminous coal; some of the other WA fields are the even lower quality brown coal and lignite as exists in the La Trobe Valley. European countries banned the burning of similar coal two decades ago on health grounds.)
Someone on Rooted obligingly posted the standard economic defence of this, which I will repeat together with the obvious counter argument:
My reply:
Garnaut did NOT say that a carbon tax would cost jobs. He said that it would SLIGHTLY slow the rate of economic growth. That is hardy a problem in WA, a state with periodic labour shortages. A carbon tax will cost some money, but it is about equivalent to 1% inflation; much less than the GFC impact. It can be made revenue neutral too.
The longer Labor avoids this isue, the more it will deservedly be blamed for.
1151
I think that is non-partisan Adam.
blue-green. Shouldn’t Baby bonus should be more than enough to cover cost of nappies?
Labor tried to pass an ETS which would have put a price on carbon and made coal-fired power stations less economically attractive. It was defeated by all other parties in the Senate. Did you support or oppose that bill?
Victoria,
You could also ask if the family tax benefit A and B are enough for school uniforms?
I think the amount of familiy assistance is about right.
Thomas Paine once again I must say that although I don’t disagree with you about Gillard having no principles and being willing to move to the right on just about anything if she thinks there might be a vote in it, I struggle to understand your opinion that Rudd was somehow better.
Rudd and gillard are fundamentally the same, the difference is that Gillard is more politically skilled and a more natural person who can understand others better. Gillard is just Rudd as he wished he could be.
Yes, the Labor hacks are rewriting history about ho awful Rudd was, but you are also rewriting history in trying to say that Gillard is some sort of fundamental departure from the Rudd era. Kevin Rudd was not a left wing hero. He was just a populist, centrist politician who stuffed things up.
Thomas Paine: I recall at the time of the leadership spill you were very enthusiastic about Gillard, insisting she would make a better leader than Rudd. What has happened for your position to change 180 degrees in such a short space of time?
middle man,
http://www.lifelinebookfest.com
This one do you mean or is there another that I somehow don’t know about? I hope there is!
I think that Gillard is doing better than Rudd was doing in the polls, and that therefore Gillard (and Labor) has a better chance in the election than Rudd would have. But the argument that Gillard is not doing better than Rudd (as Thomas Paine, for example, has argued), is not entirely silly and should be seriously considered. Remember that polls show a mixture of people’s short and medium term views about who is better PM or who they are satisfied with, or which party to better to govern. This is particularly obvious with the satisfaction questions. In answering that, people are really mostly giving their views of the performance of the leader or opposition leader in the last few weeks, with a particular focus on what they have seen most recently. I think the question ‘who will you vote for if an election is held tomorrow’ is less contaminated by short term judgements, but all the answers in an opinion poll include some instant popularity elements so are different to the more considered longer term view that is expressed at the ballot box . Of course the sum of short term judgements over time leads to the medium and long term judgement that is finally expressed in the ballot box.
So when Rudd took that major hit in the polls in early May when the government cleared the decks in the week at the end of April, I was not concerned because most of it was a short term reaction. If you had asked me in that week if I was dissatisfied with Rudd, I would have said yes, but that would not have indicated my overall longer term level of satisfaction with Rudd’s performance.
However it did become a concern when the later polls did not show much of a recovery from the initial hit. It looked as though Rudd may have been heading into a death spiral. Lots of short term negative reactions eventually add up to a considered medium term judgement that the PM and government is unsatisfactory. There were some signs of hope for Rudd in the somewhat positive trend in Newspoll.
As Psephos so eloquently said on Poll Bludger at 11.37 pm Sunday evening June 20 2010.
‘Last four Newspolls: Labor 49, 50, 51, 52 – eat that, Shanahan, Milne, Bolt, Skynews. I fart in your general direction’.
But given the major problems that Rudd had to resolve in a very toxic media environment with $90 million of mining advertising yet to come, it was reasonable to argue that the death spiral could not be avoided with Rudd as leader. (I actually think there was a good chance of resurrection if the Cabinet had been locked in behind the leader with an agreed strategy, but as we know, that precondition did not exist).
But back to whether Gillard is currently doing better than Rudd was doing. Unquestionably Gillard is doing better in the polls, particularly in the primary votes, than Rudd was doing in the last 2 months of his leadership. But Rudd had 2 + years of very good polls as well as 2 months of poor polls, and so the long term judgement on Rudd which would have been expressed in the ballot box may well have been more favourable than the judgement of Gillard that will be expressed in the ballot box.
Remember the obvious point that the polls at a point in time do not necessarily represent what will happen in the ballot box. Any particular poll is one indicator of what will happen in the ballot box, but is obviously not infallible as a predictor. Adding up the polls over time and looking at the trend gives one a stronger indication of what the ballot box result will be. If we compare Rudd and Gillard in this way, the results are equivocal. Overall the Rudd performance in the polls in the last 2.5 years was very good but the trend was poor. We do not have enough data on Gillard to estimate the trend, but the mean performance in the polls so far is reasonable.
Overall, as I said earlier, my judgement is that Gillard is doing better in the polls than Rudd was, but the argument Rudd was doing better than Gillard is doing now is not imbecilic. That argument involves putting some weight on Rudd’s earlier polls rather than focussing just on polls in the last few months. To put it in mathematical terms, the final result in the ballot can be seen as a weighted average of all the polls in the 2.7 years leading up to the poll that counts. Obviously polls a long time ago have less weight than more recent polls, but you only have to put small weights on the first 2 years of polls for Rudd to come up smelling like roses.
I supported the amended (and improved) version of the bill on this blog Psephos, and think Labor shoudl have gone to a DD over it rather than given up. Now are Labor still going to stall for another three years, while more rubbish like this is built?
LOL, such honesty is a rare commodity! Well when your kiddies get to school and you are constantly haemorrhaging money on lost and torn uniforms then I am sure you will see some merit in this proposal
Sorry Jon, but yes it was the lifeline book event i was referring to. its brilliant for filling the bookshelves.
Except that the new and improved version did not become a DD trigger whereas the old version did.
Blue-green. Just like baby bonus helps with that stage of child rearing, uniform rebates will help people with school aged children. Family benefits assistance is an ongoing assistance. What takes priority? Everyone will argue in their own interests.
MM,
And every possible spare spot in the house, think I need to get a bigger place, that or move the kids out
heaven forbid any one kill our blackberries we have trimmed them and cultavated them and water them on our acre they make the best pies jams and jellies.
gee you lot on the mainland dont know your alive
I’m glad to be reminded that you supported the ETS. No-one who opposed it has any right to criticise. Yes, I agree it’s a pity that we didn’t have a DD on the ETS. I think Labor would have won well. But that wouldn’t have solved our real problem, which was that the failure at Copenhagen rendered the 2009 CPRS bill obsolete. Without an international agreement, you will recall, the CPRS provided for only a 5% cut. That’s 5% of 1.5% = 0.075% of global emissions. We need a new ETS, and a stronger one. We can’t even begin that process till we get a new Senate, and then we have to go through the whole process of reports and Senate hearings again. That’s why it will be 2012 or 2013 before we can get a new ETS bill up. You can thank Bob Brown for that.
I thought it was illegal to cultivate blackberries.
You’ll also be able to thank Bob Brown when the new bill that gets negotiated in the next parliament is much improved on the Labor/Liberal piece of garbage that got voted down this year.
yes and better i am sorry to say at news conferences
today’s what just great very efficient and professional and forward thinking and made sure each journo actually waited she did not take any chipping in
and i just remembered No working famlies. thank goodness we are all working doing somthing that needs attention even when retired you may be volunteering etc. and that work well sort of
I really think if the jounos do their work properly we will see even higher approval rating’
Lets see if today announcement makes it to the news or where it is positioned.
I kill mine regularly, keep spilling those damn lattes on it.
Thanks for the laughs Jon. I, like many here, have many opinions and not all of them align well together.
It is hard to argue against proposals like this except that there are many other areas crying out for help that I think are more important and better fit the role of fed government. Areas such as mental health and the natural environment have stagnated under this government.
5% of 1.5% = 0.00075%
If you think any next bill will offer deeper and more expansive cuts you are smoking something. They couldn’t ever get a modest proposal through and although it may be news to you it wasn’t the greens idea of a tofu utopia that scuttled it.
Publius Clodius – so you’ll be helping Labor across the line to get one I presume or are you expecting Abbott to change his absolute cr.p story and get on board with Bob Brown.
Someone did some stats for me the other day on natural heritage expenditure over recent times (all from annual reports and budget papers).
1998/9 Natural Heritage Expenses as proportion of Revenue: 0.20%
2010/11Natural Heritage Expenses as proportion of Revenue: 0.12%
2012/2013 Forecast Natural Heritage Expenses as proportion of Revenue: 0.087%
These stats put to bed the claim that environmental benefits will come from increasing wealth.
Environmental benefits only flow when we choose to invest in the issues.
I shall be voting Green and preferencing Labor. I even preferenced Labor last time and that was when Nicole Cornes was the Labor candidate in my seat! And I had hated her for years ever since I read an article she wrote in The Sunday Mail saying how she found it disgusting when she saw two gay men kissing each other on the street.
The tories get no help from me. But that doesn’t mean I accept whatever Labor does as being good.
1266
applause – honest yet realistic
If we get a better ETS in 2013 I’ll be pleased to acknowledge the contribution of everyone who helps pass it. I will still point out that we will have lost three years because of the Greens voting down the 2009 bill. I agree that bill was inadequate, but we could have built on the framework it would have put in place. Now we have to start again from scratch, and meanwhile public support for strong action on climate has declined.
the only way an ETS or carbon tax is going to get up in this country is via a labor/green senate majority. if they had the majority between them, they would negotiate seriously. but this term they knew the libs and the freaks would run the blocking play. and then malcolm wanted to claim some glory and then down it went…
or the other way is that the Liberal party have some turnover of MP’s and they get to where the British conservatives are, and this argument becomes about how we make chnages not about whether we do make changes.
it will be interesting to see which happens first. but neither are going to happen for a few years yet.
AH but nothing happened with howard in this area and it will not with tone
remmeber his comment re the poor and people on the street.
Some one may have the link
Regarding the means tested school uniform rebate:
If Abbott plans to match this announcement the question has to be asked “Where’s the money coming from?”
I mostly agree, I do however think the very best of all investments is in education as the dividends payed are so all encompassing.
It’s hard to see Labor and the Greens agreeing on an ETS bill until the Greens come down from their fantasy land and join the real world.
My Say,
Howard followed the lead of Iemma and instituted a acheme where you can recalim pyschologist expenses through medicare and you can see from my stats above that Howard spent more on natural heritage management.
Australia already does turn people “back” at airports… it’s called customs.
The left can’t even get their talking points right.
Bernard Keane in Crikeys email today. Pretty similar but (as usual) much nastier than many of the comments here.
Pc – you’ve surprised me about Nicole Cornes. I thought she was more 21st century than that – silly woman. BTW has Cornsey retired from Port?
The highest level of agreement in environmental attitude surveys is often based around the need for more environmental education especially school aged programs.
These do have benefits down the track. We have had these programs for at least 20 years but the environmental investment has plateued.
Obviously the greens will make proposals which will make the positives of the new bill outweigh the negative of the three year delay caused by blocking the previous one. It will be up to Labor to choose just how far they go. I’m not confident, but we will see.
Also it needs to be stressed that it is not fair to say that the greens blocked the previous bill, because we will never know what would have happened if the greens had voted for it. My own belief is that at least one of the two liberals who crossed the floor wouldn’t have done so if they knew that their votes would have actually made a difference to the outcome. Crossing the floor to make an empty gesture is much easier than actually having your vote change the outcome.
Bernard has been hanging out with Ross Gittins. Gillard is perpetuating the lack of responsibility entrenched by Howard. Horrible.
I had a chuckle while viewing an article over at ‘The Daily Bludge’ about how far the debased ABC has sunk in recent times:
http://dailybludge.com.au/2010/07/abc-news-goes-off/
Well worth a look.
How convenient for the Greens to believe that. You have some evidence for that belief? My understanding is that they both felt strongly that the Liberal Party should have honoured the agreement that Macfarlane came to with the government. I don’t think either of them saw their votes as empty gestures.
That female judge on QandA last night was a very attractive woman in so many ways..
Hey the avatar thingy worked!!
BH I don’t follow the football much these days, so I wouldn’t know about Port and Cornsey. But I know plenty about Nicole Cornes, and Labor preselecting her was about the worst thing they could do to me. I was nearly sick from the rage. She was on the record as having voted for John Howard every time! And then there was the gay business. It was the first time in my life I’ve ever written a letter to the editor.
But anyway. Apparently Labor feels bad about how she got thrown in out of her depth and mauled by the media so they’ve given her a cushy state government job now. Yet another reason not to ever vote labor.
No, just a hunch. The two senators would have been lynched by their party room if they’d passed the ETS when the liberal party had just changed leaders in order to stop it. The pressure on them not to vote for it would have been enormous.
As I say, it is just my feeling that they wouldn’t have had the guts for it – few would. But we will never know for sure.
Good article Big ship. The authors routine mirrors mine in a lot of ways.
Jump in the car at 5pm for the hour long commute through Sydney traffic. Listen to PM on radio national, teeth gnashing more and more as the govt bashing/Abbott fan fest seems to get worse and worse.
I dont mind the ABC tv news, there is less commentary on tv news so less chance for bias to show but honestly, I just find PM is getting worse and worse. Lyndal Curtis, some other chick whose name escapes me and even Mark Colvin just seem nasty to labor these days and let Abbott get away with murder.
Maybe they are pissed at the govt for increasing aunties funding and thus giving Mark Scott the money to do the 24 hour news thing. Maybe their resenting the thought of after hours work.
Why didn’t someone think of this before? If you go to the wesbite of Senator Online, there is a button you can push that says “become a Senator.”
http://senatoronline.org.au/
I haven’t pushed it because I’m not sure I really want to be a Senator. Perhaps someone else would like to push the button and see if they really become a Senator. Also, please find out if you can choose which Senator you become.
their = they’re. grrr…
(umm, sorry Wm, have posted without the rule-breaking element).
Some of the posters on PB are worse than Abbott when it comes to making stuff up. On the environment, this Government:
1. Has made huge strides in fixing a century-old governance, irrigation and environmental flows mess of the Murray Darling Basin. (Howard did a decade absolutely nothing and then, too late, scribbled a back of the evelope plan – a double irony because of the way the do-nothing hypocrital perps of the back-of-the-envelope planning system are now screaming for cost benefit analysis and business plans every time the Labor Government moves. (To be fair, they were hampered in developing any genuine rural reform because of the dead weight of the vested interest of the Nationals.)
2. This Government has added millions, yes, millions of hectares to land and sea protected areas. This is orders of magnitude better than any other government on EARTH during the same time period. What is more, the areas added are based on sound scientific priorities – not some regional boondoggling rorting we found with various regional funding programs run by the Coalition.
3. Everyone has heard about the bad sides of pink batts and there were bad sides. No-one is counting the reduction in CO2 emissions and the reduction in home energy bills that have resulted.
I could go on and on. My main point is that if you are truly ignorant about something then the best thing to do is not to advertise it.
I must say the most facinating thing in Aust politics over the next 4-5 yrs will be the interplay between Rudd and Gilliard. The machine men expected Rudd to take his bat and ball and go home the ungrateful bastards that they are and he is not complying and is recontesting his seat. According to the article in the AFR today he is reportly furious with Swan and the AWU. Given he is recontesting Gilliard has no choice but the give him a a front bench role otherwise he could become quite troublesome on the back bench writing articles, appearing on TV. The fact is he is required in the cabinet and the other shrinking voilets in there better get used to his ongoing prescence and intellect.
Piece from Blanche’s book on Hawkie from a piece Margot Saville has in crikey today.
How good are those words about Richardson – they fit him so well. The book’s on my shopping list for sure.
The spectator
I don’t think it will be quite the problem you think it is.
Simon Crean is still there, despite being rolled for the leadership in the most humiliating way possible (losing to Latham!!). He doesn’t seem to be upsetting any apple carts.
I’ll admit the roosters had a go at getting rid of him a couple of elections ago, but again, it doesn’t seem to have caused him to froth at the mouth publically.
And, of course, Brumby went into a minor Shadow Ministry after losing the leadership and has never been heard of since.
I have no problem with Rudd being on the front bench and think he should.
He is a person of considerable intellect and energy and his talents should be utilized.
That said, he needs to become a team player. First sign of trouble and he’s outski.
The next year or so will be fascinating for Rudd – being the nerdy snot that he is i wouldn’t be surprised if he has set himself the goal of being pm again. After Julia’s two terms why not!
Rudd is a toxic, self-centred self promoter. He will be absolute poison to Gillard if he serves in cabinet or in any capacity where he has license to do his own thing to any degree. Rudd is incapable of being anything else. It is who he is.
Labor needs to find a way to get rid of him that will cause the least fuss. There is no way to get rid of him without causing some fuss. Defence minister of foreign affairs minister would be the worst choices. But I can’t really think of any good choices.
So, the Greens will extract a greener bill because it was their fault the first one didn’t pass? What’s the logic there again?
They voted for it. That’s the end of the matter. Any suggestion that they would have discarded their principles in different circumstances is pure speculation. This is hardly a sound argument that it wasn’t really in the hands of the Greens whether to pass the bill.
PC
you forget that Rudd is a great self educator. He knew he lacked the common touch and that he needed it to win his seat; he taught himself to talk to people.
He will learn from this experience.
BH,
It was obvious in Kerry’s interview last night that Blanch is every bit the intellectual equal for Bob and that is not a small feat in itself. I too think the book will make for a cracker of a read.
“Rudd is a toxic, self-centred self promoter. ”
a human being and a politician therefore.
The Greens also voted for the financial stimulus package. It was in the Greens hands to pass the bill, and because it wasn’t in contravention with party principles, it was passed without protest.
The Greens passing the ETS is about the same as the Democrats passing the GST. And we know what happened to the Democrats after that happened.
Boerwar,
1. Murray Darling Basin is just one basin in this Country. You could string together others in any configuration to cover a similar area and you would get higher ag productivity and biodiversity values. There are 150 different catchment scale managment organisations in this country- all of which now have less money to invest than under the previous government.
2. The govt have added some silly marine parks around distant parts of the continental shelf. I cant see this saving a single species. There arent any bulldozer plowing the ground 1000kms to the west of Tas as present. Its just paper reserves that means nothing for nature- makes you feel good but achieves nothing.
3. The pink batt benefits will be less than expected for CO2 because residential energy efficiency programs always are. Look at the results of the NSW environmental trust http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/saving-35-worth-of-carbon-cost-104000-20100415-shsr.html
the spectator
I suggested earlier that I thought that Rudd was possibly insane. I did not get any takers on my theory and I am not a psychologist, but his behaviour since he got the sack from his Party gives me hope that I was not entirely wrong. Not because I want him to be mad but because I would rather not be wrong. Ummm, well, really maybe vice versa.
Exhibits:
(1) There are various (probably well-grounded) reports that Rudd has indicated to journos that he harbours hopes of getting the PM job back. He is, as they say in the management trade, a toxic manager. Any, but any, sane person would know that there are only about two people in the Parliamentary Labor Party who would ever want to work with Rudd again. One of these is McKew. This particular Rudd acolyte seems to be going the whole hog herself. She has decried Rudd’s going, got stuck into the faction leaders for the manner of the going, and has told the world she thinks she is entitled to a ministerial promotion next year. In order, if you really are hungry for greater responsibility: dopey, stupid and thick.
(2) Rudd leaking that Obama called him before Obama called Gillard. Two strikes against Rudd’s sanity there. He apparently harbours a possible top level diplomatic post using his US contacts. Why would he betray Obama in what was obviously a confidential call between mates? The point is that this puts Obama in a slightly awkward position with the Prime Minister of an ally. The other point is that Rudd has not quite realized that Gillard entirely owns his future in the next government if Labor is elected. Rudd will get no senior dimplomatic post if the posting is actively resisted by the Australian Government. Rudd will not get a Cabinet position if Gillard does not want him to get it. Who else but a self-absorbed monomaniac would start stuffing around with the person who is going to get you your next job?
(3) Announcing publicly that he wants Foreign Affairs. This is terribly unfair to Smith, who is flowering in the absence of the micromanaging control freak who used meddle at absurdly detailed levels. It also adds a bit of heat to Abbott’s attack on Gillard because she will not announce her Cabiniet postings before the next election. Rudd’s contribution to Team Labor shines through again.
Hey mate. Once is co-incidence. Twice might be bad luck and accident prone. Three times and the pattern is there.
Henry @ 1291
In case you missed it, The Daily Bludge also has an interesting section called ‘Stop Murdoch’ which has a number of pithy articles that are less than complimentary to Uncle Rupert:
http://dailybludge.com.au/category/stopmurdoch/
They are even asking for contributors to their news columns, so perhaps this is our chance to get our revenge on all the lazy journalistic hacks currrently infesting our news outlets by showing them how it can be done with some class, instead of to please only our lord and master in New York?
blue-green
If your commitment to facts includes marine bulldozers, I am out of this discussion with you.
Zoomster @ 1301
There is well founded speculation that he’s already been leaking to the media to undermine Gillard. Both over the East Timor AS issue and about his phone call from Obama. This is one leopard who won’t change his spots.
Say what you like about the ethics and morals of Bob and Blanche’s liaison but at the heart of it you cannot deny that there is an enduring, genuine and deep commitment to each other.
Look forward to reading the book too. Chance of me getting it as a birthday or Xmas present is zilch, for some reason I always get shit like Marley and me (three times on one birthday from three different people, simply because I have a dog!) or Obama hagiographies.
Except he didn’t pull it off very convincingly, something did change when he got into power, he felt the need to use all kinds of contrived language and tiresome clichés.
It was almost as if he was using a “being blokey for dummies” book. He just ended up sounding hollow and going stale very quickly because it was so obviously a put on.
His manner of delivery used to drive me up the wall. The way he would always frame an answer with a question etc.
Was the federal minister of education at the presser this morning with Gillard, when she announced the school uniform policy?
Uh, not really. The Democrats opposed a GST, but were bribed into it. The Greens support an ETS. It just wasn’t a good enough ETS for them, and no ETS put up by an Australian government will ever be good enough for them, so they’ll continue to get nothing at all.
Boerwar,
The stamp collecting nature of previous reserve planning should have long gone. Investment should go to place where the biodiversity values are kept or improved because threats are abated or management can improve things.
I am pretty sure that threats are pretty limited on the places reserved under this government.
Well said, Henry. Crean was always a Labor person, grew up in a true believer Labor household and lived and breathed Canberra politics. Rudd didn’t and grew up more or less in a National (then Country) Party house. It explains why Crean kept his powder dry but Kev was known to be a serial leaker before becoming Leader and really needs to contain the leaks now. His talent is certainly needed but can he ever become a team player again. It might be why FA seems to be the only thing he’s suited to.
No, Laocoon.
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Jon – I think Blanche saved Bob from himself after he retired. Her intellect has help him retain his and the conversations must be interesting between them.
blue-green
(1) You are guessing
(2) You are not good at guessing.
Boerwar,
Do you like that spending on the natural environment has not kept pace with CPI?
Boerwar @ 1306
To quote the aforementioned maniacal former PM, “I think that’s a bridge too far …”
On a more sober note, I don’t think it is helpful to assert that MPs may be insane, as this is treating a serious social and medical problem with flippancy, and if you’re fair dinkum with your allegation, then you’re badly misguided.
I may disagree with 99% of what Tony Abbott says, but I would not stoop to suggest that he is mentally unbalanced, although if you asked me about Wilson Tuckey …. no, just kidding.
These people may be wrong every which way, and cynical in every fibre of their being, but they are, after all, politicians, and we expect next to nothing from them, so that is what we end up getting. They are a shadowy reflection of us, so go and have a look in the mirror the next time that you feel the need to call one of them insane.
BH,
Classic line from Hawke last night was “This suggestion that Blanche can’t be critical of me because she is my wife is news to me”. I found it a very honest and touching interview, part 2 this evening!
Boerwar,
Do you like that organisations like WWF, Bush Heritage, Birds Australia, Greening AUstralia, Landcare, the Gould League etc now get a pittance to run their conservation programs? Probably about 20% of what they received under the previous government?
5% of 1.5% = 0.00075 = 0.075% (as originally asserted).
The Big Ship
I am serious about it. My view is that he has, and is, showing considerable signs of being detached from reality. Whether this makes him completely ‘insane’ I don’t know.
Does this include research grant holders from say the NHMRC or ARC?
Publius Clodius
Leaks about Timor are more likely to be coming from Alexander Downer who has openly stated he has been canvassing our neighbours about an offshore detention centre for the Rabbott government. Don’t be surprised if we hear he has had discussions with the Timorese government regarding Gillard’s proposal.
A phone call from Obama. Well poo, poo. He was the PM, not the opposition leader.
Not everything is about, or because of Rudd.
This bit worried me, too. Why leak a conversation like that. Without it being made public most of us probably realised that Obama would ring him and I guess many other leaders would to. The leaking is a bit tawdry.
I on the other hand have absolutely no compunction in suggesting this very thing.
More than a few *batts* in his belfry.
But Kerry was right to point out that there’s a big difference between private and public criticism. That the book was written by Hawke’s wife is a big minus for me. Maybe she was reasonably objective, but we won’t necessarily be able to tell.
Love how Julia has been caught out doing a Rudd with the East Timor thing.
Labor just LOVE announcing policies before they actually do any ground work… have a thought bubble like the GBNT and East Timor processing centre… negotiate with no one first… announce it as Labor policy… then watch as the entire policy turns to shit.
Brilliant, absolutely brilliant watching.
Boerwar @ 1325
The examples of behaviour you have quoted @ 1306 sound to me like no more than a still ambitious politician positioning himself for best advantage, as all politicians (and all people) do in their daily working lives.
Rudd may be wrong is his assumptions of what may occur after the election, but I do not believe that this makes him insane, or even detached from reality, and if you base your psychobabble ‘diagnosis’ on some journos 3rd hand gossip, then perhaps you’re in need of some self examination.
“Physician, heal thyself!”
blue-green
Ah, back to the facts…
In relation to your other points:
(1) no.
(2) My general view is that governments should not fund organisations. It should fund ouputs. If the listed organisations can deliver a competitive, value-for-money outcome for the outputs, then they should be funded to deliver the output. Several of the organisations you list have severe issues that would make any sensible government wary.
Triton, if the book was written by Hazel, it would be a different matter…
BH,
In not “one” of the pieces I read on Obama’s phone call to Rudd was there “any” suggestion that the call was leaked by Rudd to the media.
There certainly was clearly indicated in those articles that the source of the information came directly from White House sources.
I think this anti_Rudd business has gone well past the silly stage to be verging on the malicious and totally ridiculous now. Insane, indeed! Bloody hell.
Perhaps all Rudd is really displaying is “rejection” not insanity.
You want insane? This is insane.
And this!
well said scorpio. too often on this site people bemoan the insidious spread of opinion dressed up as news, yet they are all too willing to make up theories and try to pass them off as fact.
we should try and stick to the facts.
The Big Ship
I acknowledge that am not making much headway with my hypothesis… but feel confident that more grist will be added to the mill over time.
Link! And not a bad picture also.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/12/2951339.htm
boerwar – the traits and issues you describe are interesting however to depict someone as insane is another thing altogether. psychological issues sure but I would say to you most politicians have those issues. the reality is Rudd is an ambitious man and he has achieved the throne and worked to grindstone in that role. he gets decapitated but he lives to fight another day – that ambition would no go away overnight. ofcourse he harbours leadership ambitions – that is actually a good thing its make Julia work harder and ensures no slip ups as he is nipping at your tail. Julia knifed him so she cannot expect no one to be there going after your job particularly if he thinks he has been unjustly dealt with. I think Julia has no choice but to give Rudd a front bench role if she doesnt he will destabilise from the back bench – keep your enemies closer. As for Smith doing a great job – the issue with East Timor has not exactly been a great effort.
If that were applied a great amount of abstract research would have never been done and many of the things we take for granted would not exist. There are dozens of things the place I work for developed using public funds that had no direct application at the time of invention, LCD’s, Carbon fibre, ground mapping radar etc.
Who else but Rudd or his office? It wasn’t Obama.
The other (customer) side of the Baltic Index (yes, for those wondering, it was down again last night):
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adioqpvZ1TD4&pos=4
Except, he didn’t “lose to Latham.” His leadership lost the confidence of the powerbrokers and he chose to step down, rather than face a humiliating party ballot. The open leadership contest was between Latham and Beazley. Latham, in fact, supported Crean to the end, and as such received Crean’s support when he was running.
In no way can that be categorised as “losing to Latham”
Dee – how can Downer be sounding people out? Abbott and Bishop say they can’t do anything because they aren’t in Govt. and have to wait to be elected!
Just remind me of any five of the current Ministery who would want to work with Rudd again. Or two.
How detached from reality does that make Rudd?
Laocoon
Thanks for the BDI update. It is strange to be fixated on an index, but there we go.
middle man,
I have seen some amazing re-writing of history here so far today.
Not quite sure what the agenda behind some of it is but I strongly suspect that the posters putting forth the re-writing, either think the reader is a stupid, half-wit, or they are, for thinking that anyone could be stupid enough to believe their tripe.
Journalists from sky news are camped outside Governor General’s residence. Apparently, want to get in first if JG rolls up. They were doing afternoon agenda program outside in very wintery conditions. They must be keen!
Cf Crean
Crean realized the PM gig was up, but continued to, and continues to, play the team game. He has made a good contribution as trade Minister and is valued for what he does.
Ergo, he is not detached from reality.
i think an overseas posting may suit him better in the long run UN or somehthing like that with his language skills
bored i think Victoria.
Boerwar @ 1338
If former PM Rudd ends up going off the deep end, Latham-style, then your case may be more viable, but he’s showing signs of maintaining his cool so far.
The jury’s still out, of course, but I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt on his motives until we see some definitive signs of serious looniness.
Scorps – I didn’t see that comment so thanks for putting me right. If it did indeed come from the White House that’s good. I don’t go along with Boerwar that he is mad. I think he burnt himself out at Copenhagen. Abbott’s incredibly effective oneliners didn’t help and it made it hard for Kev to get above the fray again. The MSM were waiting with baseball bats for him every day.
Victoria, they are just some bored political junkies hanging out waiting for the next big scoop while mouthing off their latest political hypothesis… if they were doing it online it would be even sadder!…. hang on a minute…..
When our middle daughter was a school Blanche visited the school and spoke to the girls about literature etc my daughter thought she was great. They discussed politics etc.all the girls liked her very much
Nice Jon. It also favors funding the inefficient state agencies who can put up large staff-time expenses as inkinds. It doesn’t lever additional private investment which is what the smaller non-government organisations are so good at.
The Big Ship
Happy to keep an open mind on the matter but I don’t think you will see him do a Latham.
Too much of a control freak.
Boerwar,
Clearly you are just making it up. For what purpose, I have no idea.
It was made totally clear in those articles that the notification of the phone call originated with White House sources.
I am not too familiar with these things, but it’s definitely a misstep. However, he may have still been a bit emotional and resentful when he said it. He is human after all.
I don’t know why he shared the Obama call. I, quite frankly, couldn’t care less. It just goes to show that Obama has an interest in this country and a personal fondness for Rudd. He didn’t just pretend that Rudd was no longer there as soon as he is no longer of use. All that info does is improve Obama’s image.
Rudd wanting FA is what we’re all thinking anyway. Also, I see that as no different to when Downer said he wanted Treasury after Howard leaves. Who cares about Abbott’s whinging? He is a 50 something year old man with the brain of a 5 year old – and the philosophy of an 800 year old. He is struggling to find relevance nowadays.
“Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time is enemy action.” – from Goldfinger by Ian Fleming.
A little extension on your strike metaphor. In the rules of baseball, the third strike will only get you out if the catcher catches it (if the batting side has less than 2 outs in the innings), seeing nobody is there catching it, no strikeout occurs!
there must be some great writers amongst you all to volunteer
now here is a chance for mark twain?? he or she thats is here sometimes.
Rudd insane?
Why? Does he go about making somewhat pathetic numeric summaries of daily political activities?
Why would anyone use taxpayer funds to fund an organisation? No organisation is an end in itself, IMHO.
If the organisation delivers outputs that governments wants, fine, fund the getting of the outputs.
If there is some uncertainty and risk around some of the outputs, and there is a clear case of market failure, I am fine with governments having an appetite for risk.
But forget about saying governments should fund such and such an organisation.
Once an organisation gets its snout in the trough the squeal-o-meters are really set for a going over.
Kersebleptes
*grins*
Boerwar has become something of a baiter of late. Whether or not he excels at it, and becomes a craftsman of the trade, remains to be seen.
Are you constipated or something today, Boerwar? Haemorrhoids? Kidney stone?
TSOP
Goldfinger? Hmm, *thinks*, ‘OO7′, reminds me of something. Sounds like the basis for a historical thriller tragedy.
now that took me a few minutes you mean your phone lol
i dont even have one like to hide when out of the house
Fulvio
Ooh, ouch, a touch of the truth in that one.
blue-green
Nope, but thank you for asking. The movements are OK; the haemmorhoids – quiescent since psyllium husks were invented, thanks be to the food scientists, and kidney stones, nope.
It is just that I don’t like donkeys. Even as avatars.
They are feral pests which, as you would know, cause vast environmental damage in some of our northern regions.
or mad to be first, Victoria. They were there early this morning in the freezing cold, misty Canberra air. Absolutely nutty.
The betrayal by his colleagues, the media, the Australian people… and Batman has forced him over the edge! He’ll make this world pay for what it did to him! He will devote himself to a life of crime! As of this day, he is no longer Kevin Rudd…
He is Dr. Programmatic Specificity!!!
Chris Trevor scotches talk he won’t recontest Flynn.
They got a lot of great publicity for their rolling coverage on that night. They obviously want to maintain their standing as the place to go for political breaking news, particularly with an election soon and ABC News 24 about to start up, and they are taking it to ridiculous lengths.
Some of you will have noticed that I have not added his occasional bad temper and bursts of anger and swearing to the litany of symptoms.
That is because I think these are not examples of someone being detached from reality. They are sort of normal, to-be-expected, behaviours.
TSOP
*grins*
It must have been leaked badly for everyone to know she’ll call it on Thursday.
You’d never have this type of amateurism from John Winston Howard. We never knew when he was going to call elections.
An unexpected (to me anyway) consequence of the BP disaster:
http://www.zerohedge.com/
)
(this very nice site, thanks TP, also has a cracker of a review of Alcoa, traditionally the first Dow company to report each quarter as it did last night; if you are into those types of things
Because that is the nature of research, many things are found by accident,are a curiosity and sit on the shelf till an application comes along , subsequently many of these things have gone on to change the world.
I guess it depends how narrow your definition of “output” is and how you quantify it, but you seem to be assuming outputs are predefined when a lot of the time they are not and cannot be.
IMHO Government needs to be the investment vehicle for pure research because it is the only way this stuff gets done and we would all be vastly poorer without it.
middle man. Agreed. It would be sad if it wasn’t so funny. Soon they will be banging on doors demanding an election date!
Glen: Gillard is appaerntly speaking at the NPC on Thursday to unveil the government’s climate policy.
The first person, I recall, to question Rudd’s psychological state was Dr Andrew Laming, one of the more colorfull coalition MP’s. I think he said Rudd had post-traumatic stress disorder from Copenhagen.
Loacoon. Not unexpected really. The UK government has been quite concerned about the fall out of BP not just in terms of the environmental disaster, but what it means for the tax revenue implications for them.
scorpio @ 1360
Well, it certainly removes one of the small planks of my hypothesis if you are right. If you are right, I will resile from my claim.
On a point of clarification: Did Obama’s Office say that Obama called Rudd before he called Gillard? Or simply that he called both?
Such egg will be on SkyNews if she doesnt call it.
“Scotch Egg I presume” – Sir Humphrey Appleby
Changing the subject – I’ve been looking at Senate election figures. I was struck to note that the only reason Kerry Nettle of the Greens won her NSW Senate seat in 2001 (with 4.3% of the primary vote) was that she got a full 6% in preferences, or 40% of her quota, from One Nation. Does anyone recall why ON preferenced the Greens? Was there a (gasp) preference deal done? Or did ON just enjoy spiting the major parties by electing a Greens senator?
Was that sarcasm?
Because we kind of knew he was gonna call one a couple of days prior to it happening as well.
I, personally, also have a good track record of guessing the date of the election to within a fortnight, well in advance of when it happens.
In 2007, I said it would be on the 1st of December. (Off by a week)
In 2004, I said it would be on the 9th of October. (Correct)
In 2001, I said it would be on the 24th of November (Off by a fortnight)
Earlier this year I locked in the 7th of August. While I know it can’t be that date, I am hoping it will be the 21st, so I am still inside the fortnight zone (though, to be fair, I made this prediction when Rudd was still PM)
I reckon it’s all just to drum up enrolment. The yuuf will save the government! The protected yuuf flank!
Jon
I suspect we are not far from being on the same page.
Having been quite close to several research organisations over the years, I have no doubt at all that some of the research being done was so blue sky that beneficial ‘accidents’ were extremely unlikely. Instead what the government was getting for its investment was research sinecures for life while some lucky sod got to do what he wanted and bugger the rest of us.
Governments do have to have an appetite for risk. They are entitled to mediate the risk by pushing the research into areas where the return-risk ratio is the best they can get. All this, bearing in mind that the private sector will already have picked the eyes out the most prospective bits of research.
Psephos, I can’t remember the specifics, but One Nation at that time was reacting to the major parties’ determination to put them last by adopting a scorched earth policy against them both. In Western Australia this involved putting all sitting members last, which was a great boon to Labor at the 2001 state election.
Cf BP in GB and the USA
A huge swag of retirees in both GB and the USA have significant amounts of their retirement savings in BP shares.
question has any one seen Middleton on sbs lately
That’s probably likely.
I sincerely don’t think the Greens would want to poison their appeal by doing a deal with a party whose name was poisonous – especially on the left.
Yes he was prudent with the truth on most things
With me it started at the time of the “terrible two’s” and once I learned to swear, it got progressively worse.
I have had a bad temper and it is not unknown for me to express an occasional “burst of anger” here on PB when some ridiculous tripe gets posted.
Probably I was born “insane”.
At least Rudd had a reasonable number of years of “sanity” before his current malaise set in.
Why does it matter whether or not we know in advance if she is going to call it? We all know that there is an election due soon, and the fake campaign has already started. All that is pending, is to make it official.
His wife couldn’t understand why he had to call an election at all. She thought she was the country’s leader for life.
Psychological disorders are not uncommon among our leaders, which is not surprising given their prevalence in the general community. Dr Brendan Nelson was quite definite that Turnbull suffers from narcissistic disorder. And it was clear that Hawke suffered from this too (plus the 6 weeks or so of depression). Keating was a bit unusual at times. A touch of mania perhaps.
For an election to be held in august what is the last day in july it has to be called.
victoria – yes, the aspect I had seen before was the BP dividend cut impact on pensions
I think the job of PM or LOTO would send anyone slightly crazy
Gillard to launch “election” campaign at the Press Club on Thursday.
Called Rudd first.
His problems could always be overcome by a Bundy and coke (or three) and a long drive in the family Terago.
I don’t recall that, and I thought I knew every line. Which episode, Glen?
Many of us do. On or off here. It comes with being aware with goes on around the world. I am known by my friends of having a very Alan Shore-like temper (for those who watched the great show “Boston Legal” )
I think losing your temper sometimes just shows you are human, and actually give a damn.
This particularly donkey was being used as a workhorse in a northern South American country to haul building materials up a hill to rebuild a slum. It was being lead by a young child. It was a very friendly and useful donkey.
my say
writs issued 26th July, according to Antony Green (website back up), for 28th August election
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2010/07/possible-federal-election-date.html
BH
When team Rabbott announced their ‘New’ AS policy, (the old Howard policy), Alexander Downer on behalf of the Coalition party, had discussions with pacific nations about an offshore detention centre. He did the leg work using his contacts. Thus far, we have not heard exactly where that is going to be but he is such a narchy little prat it is not beyond belief to think he is stirring some crap up.
Psephos
Some time ago you asked about Greens’ preferences in the Penrith byelection. Antony Green has some material on this I see, in case you havent noticed
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2010/07/preference-flows-for-the-penrith-byelection.html
blue-green
Good story.
William and Pebbles, thanks.
It does underline that it will be difficult for the Greens to win a Senate seat in NSW this year, since there are no longer any other minor parties of note to get preferences from. They will need to finish ahead of either the third Labor candidate or the third Coalition candidate to be able to benefit from their preferences. If both the majors get 43% of the primary vote, they’ll both have 3 quotas and the Greens will be left stranded. The Coalition can actually get less than that, since they’ll get CDP preferences. Unless the Greens get close to a quota in their own right, they have no guarantee of winning a seat even if their vote rises. Controversy about their candidate won’t help them do that.
scorpio
In that case I will resile from the view that Rudd leaked that story.
Hacker (reading from Charlie Umtali’s speech): “…We urge the Scots and the Irish to cast off the imperialist yolk…” (speech) We’ll have egg all over our faces!
Appelby: Scotch Egg, presumably?
The one where they get blackmailed into giving Buranda a free loan of $50m pounds to buy their own offshore drilling equipment.
I also love how the Foreign Secretary was getting all his information from the TV as Foreign Office cables were too slow.
Lee Rhiannon is a dill. One of my friends from a major green ngo met with her prior to the 2007 NSW election. She was asked what was her major issue.
She said Workchoices. Not climate change, not forests, not overdevelopment but workchoices and in a bl__dy state election as well.
Many of the lcoal greens were quite pissed that they couldnt do pref deals with the libs over local environment issues. It totally wrote local environment issues out of the election.
Yes, extremely difficult I would think. The best chances are in TAS and VIC where the greens should be close enough to a quota in their own right, and in WA where the Labor vote should be in the toilet. Everywhere else will require much luck, even if the Green vote rises. I’m sure Bob Brown and many greens will be hoping they don’t win a seat in NSW this time. Rhiannon will be more trouble than she’s worth.
On the subject of insanity in politics, I seem to recall hearing that Bronwyn Bishop used to turn up to question time with commitment papers to a mental institution filled out with Paul Keating’s name back when he was PM.
Seems slightly precipitate to have put the view out there in the first place, then.
Unbalanced, even…
Thanks, Glen. I missed that episode when I recorded them from the ABC, so I had to wait till the cable UK channel did a YM marathon to get it. As such I’ve only seen it 35 times, instead of 75 times for most other episodes.
In NSW Labor, looks like the circus keeps continuing.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/nsw-mp-paluzzano-could-face-prosecution-20100713-108zj.html
Lee’s position seems reasonable to me. The fact that it was during a state election made the issue even more relevant.
Wow, Killing several careers and probably contributing to a Western Sydney seat wipeout all over a few grand for staffers. NSW corruption just isnt what it used to be. I expect strippers and bent police commissioners.
It is such a timeless piece of political satire.
I cant get enough of it myself.
One of the best quotes was by Jumbo
“The civil service doesn’t need slimming” *pats stomach*
Tom in NSW the govt owns the energy system so climate change should have been front and centre for the greens. Workchoices was a fed policy so had little relevance at state level. Overdevelopment is again a state domain.
Very reasonable for a communist. But Greens are supposed to campaign on green issues, remember? Getting rid of WorkChoices was Labor policy, so it made no sense for the Greens to campaign on the same issue. Greens need to find issues where they can differentiate themselves from Labor – goodness knows there’s no shortage of them.
Oh the irony, that’s better than Labor helping to elect the resident fruit bat from FF.
I don’t recall a deal being made, but still it seems odd that ON voters would preference the Greens, perhaps they didn’t understand what the Greens stood for and just though it a strange and rebellious name for a political party? That and it’s opposite from red on the colour wheel and ON wanted to get as far away from those Damn commies as possible.
I think Lee’s position was more about splitting the more militant unions away from the ALP and getting them to support the greens.
Glen,
Do you think that the character Charlie Umtali was inspired by the early, relatively acceptable image of Robert Mugabe?
I’ve always thought so, but don’t know much about other African leaders from that era.
The Greens have a good chance of picking up Fielding’s seat in Victoria, and they might pick up one of Labor’s seats in SA. Siewert will probably be reelected and Milne definitely will be. NSW is too populous for a Green to win (unless the candidate has crossover appeal which Rhiannon does not or there is another 3rd force determined to upset the two party dominance, like was mentioned about ONP) and QLD too conservative. However, in QLD Trood’s Liberal seat should fall to Labor.
While it’s really nothing more than crystal balling to predict the next Senate, I would hazard a guess and say it will look like this:
Labor: 32
Coalition: 36
Greens: 7
Ind: 1
With that, the Greens will have the absolute balance
From the lovely press tweeter @latikambourke
It wasn’t a matter of individual choice. Anyone who voted for ON above the line had their preference directed to the Greens by virtue of the HTV the party lodged with the AEC. About 13% of ON preferences, people who voted below the line, finished up with the Democrats.
Could be though Humphrey does mention african leaders I think in an episode where he tries to get an exemption for Baillie College and he mentions former Commonwealth leaders like Neru and Mugabe and how they were going to get a quality Oxford education.
Perhaps but Charlie Umtali was still a crook “you know”
Pebbles, I’m pleased to concur. Although Labor does have a good chance of picking up a Lib seat in Tas.
Has anyone heard whether Xenophon is running a ticket in SA? I expect he won’t, because unless it has Stott-Despoja on it, it won’t make much impact, and it appears she’s turned him down.
Hang about Tone, I thought Labor were me too-ing you on CC? Plus Robb must be going demented with his abacus.
I heard something about him trying to launch a new party a few months back, but heard nothing else of it.
If Xenephon were to run a candidate this time, I doubt they will do that well. Nick Xenephon wins elections on a cult of personality, for lack of a better term. Without Xenephon on the ticket, the party can call itself what it likes, it will be nowhere near a quota.
Is this the one where Humphrey exclaims “Blackmail!” And the President replies “Are you referring to me, or my proposal?”
(Or words to that effect…)
I guess we better start being a bit nicer to them then…one day….soon.
That’d be very nice!
I don’t know why anyone would think the Greens could pick up a senate seat in SA at this election. They only won one last time because Nick X was running. The coalition have a strong vote in SA, Labor will have just about their average national vote in SA, and Family first will poll around 4% and will put the greens last. There is no room at all for the greens to win a seat.
The greens senate candidate, by the way for anyone who is interested in such things, is the wife of their legislative council member, Mark Parnell.
I doubt he will. He wouldn’t want to damage his brand by having an embarrassing failure.
Yep = GOLD!
I’m sorry we are not tributing you in the correct manner. How many times do we have to knock our heads on the floor again?
Respect works both ways by the way. A few less firebombs thrown at Labor, and you may see a little less hostility from us.
Yep, GOLD indeed!
I can still remember laughing out loud at that one…
Oh yeah, why? The Libs will be more compliant after the Election.
Speaking of Liberal wet Senators, Gary Humphries agreed in an interview today that “turn back the boats” is not a workable policy. He said it was only meant as a deterrent.
Kakuru
And at the end…
Jim Hacker – “K B E….Humpy!”
The left leaning attitude of SA, its small population (easier for quotas), The fact that SA Labor and the Greens aren’t as mutually hostile as other Labor-Green divisions and will likely swap preferences, SA’s streak of electing independents and 3rd parties – take your pick.
Xenephon’s presence on the 2007 ticket probably almost preventing the Greens from winning.
Psephos, I prefer the Alan Jones and Philip Ruddock interview where Jones lambasts ‘peter van insolent’ for him saying you cant turn back the boats.
We’ll just wait and see whether Labor trots out the old gay heroin under Bob Brown’s desk routine for this election. Labor always fights dirty against the greens, particularly when its seats are at risk.
At least the greens are genuine in their disappointment and dislike at the way Labor behaves in government. They don’t need to make stuff up to get that across.
Continuously, until we say you can stop, it’s a strangely hypnotic sound.
Well, Labor could always offer to give away free corn.
Or uniforms money. Is that pork barrelling or what?
So, has anyone got any idea about how likely it would be at current 52:48 type polling levels that the Greens would have the sole BOP?
Or is it more likely that it will be Xenophon + Greens?
I can’t begin to tell you what’s wrong with the above. But pretty much everything is.
David Speers “You will have an open preference policy at the election”.
Bob Brown “That’s news to me”.
I thought the Greens liked dirt, particularly of the bovine variety if it’s buried in cow horns in the light of the full moon at a certain time of the solstice.
Probably will if you trot out the “Another Liberal Party” who is “full of war criminals” rhetoric.
You wanna know why the Greens are loathed inside political circles? It’s not that you fight dirty, frequently go negative and are partisan hacks who crave only to win. It’s that you pretend you aren’t.
You march around the place pretending to be messiahs – the only ones who can save the world. Yet, it’s clear from your actions that you are a power hungry political party, not above sly tactics, just like every one else.
Get over yourselves.
I thought compulsory uniforms have always been tax deductable.
Well I have been working politics in this state for a long time now. I understand its pulse.
I’ll take my experience here over the negative bleatings of some anonymous poster with an anarchy symbol as their avatar.
Rua – I thought yesterday that Brown said they would have open preferences or is that only for the HoR
I think we might all recall for a second that in Tasmania, after months of calling each corrupt hacks and puppets of Gunns and feral drug dealers, Labor and the Greens happily formed a coalition and are now best buddies. Moral: it’s 90% hot air.
With apologies to Cooper:
“…in his 1845 novel The Chainbearer, James Fenimore Cooper wrote, “I hold a family to be in a desperate way, when the mother can see [a school uniform] the bottom of the pork barrel.”[5]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pork_barrel
Lee Rhiannon apparently expects a swift ride back to the NSW Legislative Council if she loses the Senate election.
He said on Agenda wtte that by law the Greens had to preference in the Senate and of course this would flow on to the Reps.
Boerwar 1453
See my post #1429 for a possible scenario. Either way, with Trood and Fielding likely to go to Labor and Greens, the balance of power will most certainly rest upon the Greens.
Good on you Scorps!
PB with a few exceptions has turned into a Rudd hate blog to cover the dirty deed done dirt cheap by the factions and unions to get rid of Rudd who stood up to them for a female version of Abbott!
Hell if it was the Libs policy to keep AS out of Australia by starting another pacific solution in Timor there would be confected outrage by all those now wetting themselves about Julia’s brilliant solution.
In Rudd’s farewell speech he said something about being proud of not going to the right on AS, I now see why Labor needed to get rid of him. A man of principals it seems has no place in the ALP.
Similar in a way to how the Libs treated Malcolm when he wouldn’t compromise his beliefs on CC and crossed the floor to vote with the govt.
These posts saying Rudd was never popular and that he couldn’t communicate with people despite the fact he’s had the highest popularity of any Opp leader or PM for 3&1/2 years has just about turned me off Labor.
Now add to that the spite and nastiness of posters now saying he is insane, mentally unstable etc and that he was never any good and never did anything all to cover for them meekly following the party spin to excuse the treatment of Kev and to promote Gillard and I’m really disgusted and disillusioned!
Seems little difference between Lab and Lib or Jules and Tone. Bob Brown is a wangker so what’s left?
Glen looks like I have no choice but to join you in your independency in future
OK DUCKING FOR COVER now
TSOP
What probability would you give to that set of numbers?
Well said.
Which is why I don’t like Labor posters focusing on bringing down the Greens when we have a more dangerous opponent to fight.
vera
Welcome back. I trust your recovery is going well.
I detect the shifting view of a dedicated proponent of Realpolitik
Having a combined Labor-Green vote of 39 = 90% (the only real alternative that sounds plausible is Labor picking up a seat from the Libs in Tassie)
Those exact numbers? A little less. Exactly where Labor win a place, and where the Greens do is up for debate.
The odds of the Greens having the balance of power either way = almost certain.
Senate predictions are quite difficult to do. (Not as difficult as state upper houses, mind.
The only certainty you have is that each state will elect 2 ALP and 2 Coalition. And the Greens will win one in Tassie.
As I’ve said here before, although I’m a rotten Labor Right hack, I’m actually quite “left” on environmental issues, and particularly climate change. I agree with some of the more gloomy scenarios about the climate future. That’s why I was angry at the Greens for sinking the CPRS, for reasons that seem to me to be mostly tactical. However, that’s done now, so we need to look to the next parliament. Labor and the Greens will almost certainly have a Senate majority and will need to work together to get the best outcome consistent with political and economic reality.
I’m still alive and kickin’ Boerwar you bloody stirrer you!
God damn commie!
Angry moo cow on the rampage – RUN.
Apparently Kev is in Washington about to meet with Clinton.
vera
Glad to hear that you are OK.
tsop
thanks
Vera,
The Opposition has sure picked up on the displeasure that Queenslanders are feeling at the manner of Rudd’s demise but more so the re-writing of history and demonetisation of him to try and justify Gillard’s assention and attempts to stake out a new identity.
Abbott & his Shadow Ministers are crawling over Labor marginals in Qld at this very moment and will do so right up to polling day I expect.
That link to Chris Trevor’s media release was an interesting read and demonstrates that it is far from universally accepted within the Labor Caucus and certainly not out in the Qld electorates. Flynn is the one next to mine and even Lib supporters feel dirty about the manner of Rudd’s knifing and especially the aftermath. Labor supporters, much more so.
Abbott is just loving the continuing twisting of the knife in Rudd’s back and is making political capital out of it. If people are too stupid to see that their attitude is unproductive and damaging to the Labor cause, then they deserve an Abbott Government after August.
Link.
http://twitdoc.com/docview?doc=34250254&key=key-5hh4kx9wo2rp9msr943&usr=latikambourke&lcl=latikambourke/k4ppdq4s/ChrisTrevor.pdf&hits=273&qs=ex89c5
That should read “at least 2 ALP and 2 Coalition.”
I have no sympathy for crocodile tears. They were a part of Rudd’s undoing (the primary factor actually) so forgive me for not giving two shits how they feel! In fact, those that love Rudd should direct their anger toward them. After all, it was their lack of relent and their salacious gossiping that brought Rudd to a terminal position (combined with the greed of some obscenely wealthy Australians)
Not a word on SkyNew 5pm about Gary Humphries’ comments re turning the boats back not really being feasible.
I would have thought that was every bit as newsworthy as Abbott opening the EdenMonaro office
Scorpio
Lindsay Tanner was correct when he said that people were elected becuase they had the letters ALP next to their name on the ballot paper.
I don’t really care who leads the ALP as long as the cult of leader does not take over. I will leave that to the Libs.
Exactly and the first thing an Abbott government would do is undo all of Rudd’s good work. Kev would be absolutely delighted with that I’m sure. With supporters like that who needs enemies.
Hmmmm, talk about cult leaders, where’s Tony?
To Speak of Pebbles,
Except for the fact that a considerable number of them voted for Kevin Rudd in 2007 in electorates like Flynn & Dawson.
They have been lost for the moment (check the marginal seat polls) and if Labor wishes to hold on to those seats, then the campaign attempting to boost Gillard at the expense of Rudd & his record, will do nothing to assist in retaining those seats.
IMO, even seats like Capricornia are suffering because of it. They have voted out Labor Members here before and they can do it again.
It is totally “idiotic” and unproductive.
Liberals feel dirty about a knifing?…Haha. Good one.
They were too gutless to knife Howard when the country, and their party, needed it. Costello knifed himself, which is unique. Then a little conga line of knifings… Nelson, Turnbull… and only a matter of time before Abbott will be taken off to the chopping block.
Give me a break
Scorpio, it’s the Labor supporters who need to get over the leadership change and think of making sure Tone doesn’t win government.
What campaign is that exactly?
Thinking about going to Lake Eyer while its full… it always rains better under Labor.
Does anyone know the best place to get to the edge of the Lake to go for a camping spell?
What a load of tosh, a few bloggers may be doing that but the party is not, except maybe the dill in Flynn.
During the election campaign, probably at the official launch Rudd will give Julia a huge hug and give her unqualified support. As he said he has been in the party for 25 years and intends to stay in it for the next 25.
The King is dead, long live the Queen.
Eyer aka Eyre
Rudd will be back challenging for PM at some time in the future. The fact that the party is trying to trash his reputation shows that they are fearful of his return. They did not expect him to stay after being deposed. He has gone against the grain by staying – good on him and they are now nervous as hell as to what that entails for the future. The factions would never have the balls to challenge his pre-selection for Griffith.
Yep and turned against him in droves, as soon as their purses where affected by the possibility of the RSPT. As I said, they can deal with it.
How is that occuring? We’re running on the government’s records and ideas for the next term. Rudd isn’t the topic of conversation for the ALP. It’s a Liberal talking point, because they are shameless hypocritical vultures.
Surely you are not taking the few anonymous comments on Poll Bludger as being representative of the ALP’s re-election campaign, or believe that anything said on here has the even slightest effect on the political scene in the outside world?
Or is it because, when asked questions about whether the government was going in the right direction under Rudd, Labor politicians have not fallen into the trap of sounding like they’re admitting there was no need to change leaders?
Heard the Vic Farmers Federation President (Broad?) interviewed on ABC Country Hour radio today.
Very scathing about the Greens – said the majors approach is along the lines of ‘How can we work with farmers to improve environmental outcomes?” whereas the Greens tell farmers what they should be doing, with no respect for the farmers’ knowledge.
Rudd contesting for the leadership again at an appropriate time is healthy for the country and for the Party.
Meanwhile Gillard is leader, the election is nigh, and the Liberals are the enemy.
Got it?
Scorpio – it’s a bit late now for all those Qlders to cry crocodile tears. Every poll showed Kev had lost more support in his home State than almost anywhere.
The Nats, Libs and their LaRouche luvvies, plus Palmer have been out there for months with their emails about AS getting $1,000 a fortnight, etc. and nobody in Labor stood up to them.
I’ve been angrier than I’ve ever been about the lack of gumption in getting out there and refuting it all. So all those Qlders who are complaining now were the people listening to the Opposition and their mates and believing them because otherwise Kev would not have been losing votes in Qld as he was. Where were they when he needed them to stand up for him – probably behind doors bagging him.
Spare me the hypocrisy of these people. The bloke couldn’t even go to the Gabba this year because he would have been booed out of sight.
I’m madder than Vera but I’ve been trying to hide it for months. I’ll stand behind Gillard now because she is taking advice and trying to give us a chance. If you get Abbott – then yes, we deserve it but remember that all the fault did not lie with Gillard and the Caucus.
I’ m standing up for my grandkids to work against Abbott because I don’t believe in unfair dismissal and I don’t believe in full fee paying kids with low marks getting into Uni over more deserving poor kids. There’s much more of course but I’m not going to sulk because the bloke I like is no longer leader.
Now come on, those marginal seat polls were showing Labor in trouble before Rudd was removed. Let’s not do a history re-write here.
Lets see how well it goes considering the technical issues the ABC has been having.
With the support of whom?
Sancho Panza? Rocinante?
Rudd will not undermine the Gillard leadership. It will be a surefire way for him to be exiled into political irrelevance – and for the ALP to be exiled into opposition.
Got it?
Yes agree. Tell the ALP to stop trashing the guy who got them into power in the first place.
It’s magnificent when in flood. Go to Marree – great hospitality. They may even have a tourist office now that you can contact for good advice. It’s too many years since we were there.
With the support of whom?
Polling. Agree he will not undermine the leadership however if he sees a better way once they are back in the govt and the “govt has lost its way” he will challenge. The OO will constantly poll preffered PM with Rudd remaining. Swan is no PM. This all for the second possibly third term.
Tell you what, Kevin Rudd is still Prime Minister of the Australian Blogosphere.
there we’ve just won the election!
BH
As I have mention pages back. The ALP are failures at selling their successes. The Coalition are not only good at tearing good policies to pieces with negativity they also have the skill to sell their failures as successes.
The ALP have done so much good in 2.6 years but you wouldn’t know it unless you are a dedicated political watcher.
Also the day we learn about the Higgs boson particle, and – by extension – the secret of the universe. Presumably this will make ABC News 24 redundant.
Oh shock horror. My neighbour, a lifelong National party voter just told my OH she is seriously considering voting for the Greens.
New Getup ad canning Gillard & climate change. Not good!
Dee. ELections are won in the centre. Get Up preaches to the choir.
If you can’t ignore the few knuckle heads you invariably encounter on a site such as this, Spectator, politics isn’t your game.
There are one or two who have bagged Rudd personally and even belittled his achievements. From what I see the majority of us vacillate between the upset to the rueful at what has happened and wish it had not, but are mindful of some of the problems created by his remaining there, and are willing to soldier on until the enemy is defeated.
After that, we can navel gaze, put to rights, challenge, or do whatever.
I suffered 11 miserable years of Howard’s crud. There is no way I want to see his mini me enthroned by Labor default arising out of internecine warfare.
Dee
It will be interesting to see if the Greens chase that sort of vote. When you look at the NP courting coal money via Clive Palmer, they are not doing a lot for the interests of rural farmers any more (as opposed to miners). They should be vulnerable. I could see some of the Greens more conservative policies (eg on population) appealing to NP voters too, though for different reasons.
Get Up can waste their donor money anyway they like. They just don’t have enough to make an impact.
As a viewer of this blog, thought I might add my views. Vera agree with your comments re Rudd.
Also if Borewar had read Hartcher’s column it was very clear, unless Hartcher was lying,that the sources were US officials.
As for other leaks etc, could there be a campaign by the faction powerbrokers to try to finger Rudd to make him look bad. I note Chris Trevor in his press release(saying he would recontest Flynn) was quite critical of these people.
By the way I’m crazy as well Boerwar. I lose my temper, have got very angry occasssionally, have had ambition throughout my life, and have had to put up in my career with these so called poor little petals of the union movement, who have not been shy in intimidating, bullying and threatening. I respect that the union movement has provided us the conditions of employment we have to-day, but they are not without sin.
Or it will be extremely awesome, if the climate change policy is up Gillard’s sleeve.
While I don’t predict masterplays. They’re rare and unlikely, and it’s easy to disappoint when they don’t actually transpire. I would very much laugh if a CC policy is ready to be fired out at the right time. After Getup and other left wing organisations are hoping to milk the issue.
It could be the left’s “GBNT”!
It is useless to set up financial and market systems that require farmers to trash the environment for a living, and then:
(a) expecting them to farm ‘sustainably’
(b) attacking them for not farming sustainably.
It is also useless for farmers to claim that they are environmental caretakers. Except at the margins, they can’t be.
I don’t know of a single farm that is being farmed ‘sustainably’. Just three examples:
* all of them reduce biodiversity
* all of them depend on CO2 emissions that are unsustainable.
* all of them damage hydrology
Where it will all end, I don’t really know. But the gap between ‘sustainable’ farming and what is happening now is gigantic.
Exactly, Dee. In a marginal like mine it is so disheartening to hear people say that Labor have done nothing except waste money.
When Tony Delroy said he was amazed at what Kev outlined had been done during his time as PM I screamed and said ‘why did you never check it out’ but then realised why he hadn’t. Kev hadn’t told him before and neither had anyone else. A few dribs and drabs but because they’d been in front for so long they thought it wasn’t necessary to spread the word.
Up here it did and does matter. So, yep, I’m angry and it doesn’t do the BP any good. All we can do is work hard to get it out now and that will protect Kev’s legacy.
I find the suggestion that Rudd would try to destabilise the Labor Party via leaks now very odd, and quite unlikely. I have said in the past that I thought Rudd was ruthless and hard to work for. But he has always been publicly loyal to Labor, even after it shafted him. I think it is a pretty central part of his identity. Besides, what does he have to gain? If he did it there would be plenty of mud to throw back, and he is not going to be made leader again, while he still wants to be made foreign minister or an ambassador somewhere. I can’t see why he would leak such details.
I remember when Kev outlined his accomplishments in his farewell speech, and it was an impressive list. Then the rats on the evening news edited out that part, and made him look like a blubbering dummy!
Annie
I have already resiled on the Obama call, so you are right on that one.
In relation to your behaviours, my specific point was that I was not counting evidence of Rudd’s anger, swearing etc as evidence that he may be insane, regarding these as normal behaviour.
My point in relation to Rudd is that he has lost touch with reality. In particular, there is hardly a person in the Ministery who would look forward to working with Rudd again. That being the case, Rudd’s views that he will one day again be the PM is completely, and utterly, detached from reality.
BH. Hopefully the Labor party will have a great campaign and are able to get a clear and concise message out to voters. As the Liberals campaign will be negative towards anything Labor has done over the past two years. Unfortunately, people take more notice of negative messages. That is my concern.
Socrates
Bob Brown has been out to see the protesting farming groups who are up against the miners. He was well received I believed. Especially as Barnacle was all support & croc tears then went all out to defend the mining industry from paying their fair share. Did not go down well.
Swan and Gillard are not being positive about Rudd’s achievements and are putting the knife in with comments like Swan saying it was Gillard’s intervention that got the mining tax compromise up, and Gillard praising Hawke for his inclusive cooperative cabinet government.
Boerwar@1516:
Thanks Boerwar, that’s a keeper.
Boerwar
I can think of a few farms that try to be sustainable, but I agree the vast majority are more like mechanised big business and it is very difficult to be otherwise and not go broke.
I still think the Greens could profit by targetting issues that matter to farmers eg water allocations. Also issues like food miles and encouraging more use of local produce would assist too.
Socrates
“I supported the AMENDED (and improved) version of the bill on this blog Psephos, and think Labor shoudl have gone to a DD over it rather than given up.”
think you mixed up Socrates double times !
First 5% ETS Bill was rejected twice You were against that ETS Bill I argued with you that 5% was all that econamicly could be passed vs our 4 major Trading partners who promised zero
(You recall Greens opposed it as well & wuld not negatiate below there minimum 25% stupid demands)
This first ETS Bill is th ONLY ETS Bill that a DD triger applied You opposed it
th Second ETS Bill (Turnbull amended Bill) was not a DD trigger at all , it was not rejected twice But it WAS suported by 2 Liberal Senators on conscience and would hav passed had Greens (again) not opposed it
every bit of extra co2 in air in oz from july 2011 is on heads of shameful Greens and Liberels That 5% ETS Bill provided a 23% cut in oz emmissions from 2011 to 2020 !
“When Tony Delroy said he was amazed at what Kev outlined had been done during his time as PM”
I actually wept during that part of his speech! Yes there could have been more promotion of the government’s achievements but my fear is that we all now have a ten minute attention span and I wonder whether anyone would be listening anyhow!
Either way he did not deserve the treatment he received from some of his “colleagues”.
Vera@ 1466
You go girl!!
By the way, I think it is Swan (and Qld AWU) that Rudd is most upset with. From reading Shitstorm it is clear Swan would sell his grandmother, and I reckon he was the one who leaked the decision of gang of 4 on ETS to the SMH.
Agreed, but how do the shops counter “what do you mean its out of season” ?
That is how he got the Treasury gig, also why he will lose it.
To Speak of Pebbles
I heard Delroy the night of Rudd’s exit speech. He had a caller on the line and he remarked, that when he heard Rudd list the accomplishments, he thought WOW, all that in 2.6 years & with the GFC. Why don’t we know about it?
BH
You are probably right when you state they were that far in front they thought they didn’t have to sell their achievements. If they win the election I hope they have learnt from this.
Socrates
I really feel for folk who do have a social and environmental conscience and who try to farm sustainably. Some good things can be done but, in the end, and except at the edges, the systems beat them.
We are revegetating our riverbanks a the moment and at times I wonder about even that. The amount of CO2 emissions required for even a km of river is very large.
No. He got it because Rudd didn’t wanna upset the Beazleyites by removing him from Shadow Treasury (it’d be seen as a post-leadership change purge.) And then in the 2007 campaign he was cornered into committing to having Swan as Treasurer.
Like him or not, he has been doing the job sufficiently.
Also, I sincerely doubt he is leaving Treasury, considering he is the Deputy PM.
Agree with BH and Dee re that the govt has not been able to get its achievements out into the general public and they are quite considerable. All the negatives are reported rather than the positives. Seems with the moving forward campaign labor might not even highlight these achievements which is ridiculous. I am sick of hearing Julia saying moving forward. Sounds like football speak.
Boerwar
I’m highly suspicious of the story going around that departments don’t want to work for him because he is some sort of tyrant.
I think they are concerned about having Rudd as a boss because he expects his staff to earn their money. He does not tolerate sloth under the public purse.
A momentious occasion, if confirmed.
Of course, unsurprisingly, there are comments that are whinging (it is news.com.au – whinge central) about the “wasted money.” If you don’t understand the value of science. Then you never will.
Besides, the eventual practical applications of quantum physics will serve society well (like cheaper power from cold fusion and cheaper, more convenient forms of transportation)
You need to speak the language of the Plebs to be Consul of Rome…
then again you need the support of aristocrats too…
Nothing has changed
As a friend on twitter pointed out surely the ABC marketing people could have held off for two days instead of launching a 24 hour news channel on 22/7…
Bill Mollison
Bill Mollison has done wonders for sustainable agriculture.
Boerwar,
A pretty good example of pure research funded by governments for no specific outcome no?
Gillard has no choice but to keep Swan as Treasurer, but she will watch him very carefully. And putting Rudd in Cabinet may actually be a way of constraining Swan
For those of you with Fox, I notice that on 114 Fox Classics tonight, Don’s Party is being shown
I hope that when (not if) Labor win the election. We have a return to Cabinet Govt. where the Ministers run their depts, where the Treasurer says how many bucks are in the kitty and the Finance Minister says how much can be spent.
Where Ministers argue their case with reason and if they stuff up they are replaced, where the PM is above everyday politics and does not see the role as appearing on talkback radio.
SkyNews Interactive has the Gillard and Abbott press conferences today on rotation at the moment, and I am mightily impressed with PM Gillard’s command of this medium. She treats the assembled interlocutors with easy collegial respect, but herds them politely, but firmly by moving methodically around the group, calling them by name, and ensuring they all get a fair shake, without letting anyone overwhelm the process, nor interrupt out of turn.
It is for all the world like a school teacher talking sternly, but fairly to her unruly students, treating them all equally, and providing room for everyone to have their say. I am especially impressed with her naturally infectious laugh, which she deploys with assurance and aplomb, and how she seems to have entirely disarmed this cynical crowd with her honesty and direct responses to their ‘gotcha’ questions.
Compare and contrast this with Tony Abbott, whose stuttering and stammering is reaching speech impediment proportions in recent days. I had trouble following the thread of some of his responses due to the halting delivery and mangled syntax. For a man who is meant to be the alternate PM, he is currently struggling, in my view, to provide a coherent narrative. The use of his stock and quickly becoming hackneyed responses, reducing and subordinating all complexity, or nuance in any issue to his pre-packaged and over simplified 10 second sound grab message designed only for the snappy news one liner is starting to wear thin on the assembled media pack. This, of course, is no way to treat journalists, even those News Ltd hacks in thrall to a predetermined ‘Labor = bad, Coalition = good’ narrative imposed on them from their dark master in new York.
The differences between the two leaders in both style and substance are becoming more stark, and the election campaign will expose these egregious deficiencies in Abbott’s method, as occurred in 2007 when he lurched from one gaffe to another until he was mothballed by Howard before he did irreparable PR damage.
He can’t help himself, so get ready for his ‘Latham Moment!’
TSOP at 1446:
Firstly: quotas rely on percentage, not raw numbers. SA having 1/3 the population of NSW doesn’t change the quota %, and the Greens sure don’t get 3x the % of vote in SA as in NSW.
Secondly: Nick Xenophon actually made it easy for the Greens to get a seat, despite not polling that high. He got bang on a quota, making the contest for the rest a de facto 5 seat contest, and ALP and Lib got about the same vote as each other, giving them two each and allowing the Greens to sneak between their #3 candidates. A couple of points either way for the two majors, and one or the other would’ve got a third seat. Take out Xenophon, and if the majors get a similar vote to each other again it’s likely to go 3-all. The Greens would want a pretty big increase or one major party to get clobbered (like Labor always does in WA). Labor are apparently doing well enough there to get 3, and the Libs should be saved by FF preferences. Carn the SA Greens, but I don’t think it’s very likely.
Also, somebody was asking about Lee Rhiannon getting in with a low vote and One Nation preferences. Same thing happened in WA in 2001, Agricultural Region in the upper house. ON got about 1.5 quotas and put ALP / Lib / Nat way down the bottom on their ticket, so their surplus elected a Green, completely unrepeatably. (The result was 1 seat each to ALP, Lib, Nat, ON and Grn… has there ever been a similar result in a multi-member electorate, splitting 1-all like that? Psephos?)
I just had the image of a “handshake moment” except instead of an aggressive wrist-squeezer, he shakes her hand normally, then slaps her on the bottom…
Oh geez, is there a more dated film in Australian history?… Puberty Blues perhaps?
Jon
I am open to persuasion on the Higgs boson particle.
You do know voters are a quantity, not a percentage, don’t you and quotas are treated thus. While the value of a quota is 1/7 of the population. The actual quota is how many votes that equals. Because 1/7 of SA’s population is considerable less than 1/7 of NSW’s, it stands to reason that it would be easier to fulfil it. It’s basic mathematics.
It’s why the Greens have such a stronghold in Tasmania and why minor parties and indies do so well in SA (especially in the LC)
…which was indeed on the other night…
Amigo, miss you. how are you? that should have been:
DOLPHINING FOR COVER
I just auto-retuned my digital TV to get ABC24 and found that there is no longer any ABC 1 transmission in HD. Channels 2 and 21 which carry this programming are both in 576/25Hz whereas One (Ten Network Sport) is in 1080/25Hz.
I think we’ve been short changed.
Fox HD is 1080i and this is magnificent.
Atre there any (dare I use the word) geeks out there who can comment on this?
OMG
The Rabbott announces Murray Darling water takeove if the Coalition win government. Mmmmm……
Barnacle said he has got buckleys of getting it past the Nats.
ruawake @ 1543
“where the PM is above everyday politics and does not see the role as appearing on talkback radio.”
Agree with you but look at the treatment Rudd got when he didn’t comply with the demands and whims of the “kingmakers” Jones Cassidy et al!
Now there is no excuse for the MSM to press Tone on the fact that he cannot deliver it.
BK:
It’s all about available bandwidth – in order to have ABC News 24 they had to shut down ABC HD
With his magic ability to snap his fingers and change the constitution immediately?
How Surprisement – Twiggy doesn’t like the new look Mining Tax.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/7577408/fmg-pans-new-look-mining-tax/
Ron 1526
My apology if I got it wrong on the DD trigger. I did not support the first bill for alot more reasons than the 5% figure. The far too generous handouts of free permits, and various exemptions, meant it was neither equitable nor efficient, and a long way from Garnaut’s recommendations. I did support the second bill though, as I said. I am not defending the opposition or Greens for canning the scond bill, or Mr X or Fielding; they are all condemned by that decision.
That being said, two wRongs don’t make a right. Rejection of the CPRS by the Senate justified Labor waiting till after the Senate numbers changed, not waiting three years.
Time for the daily score.
Gillard&Co still not getting clear air from the AS. Two boats in two days. The East Timor Parliament voting ‘nyet’, for what that is worth. Any news is bad news.
Abbott continuing with his negativity. It is hard to judge but I suspect that the huge gender imbalance will not be shifted while Abbott is being negative about Gillard&Co.
Good announcement and excellent psychological placing of the schools uniform pork barrel. Positive stuff, offsetting the AS issues. It addresses some points I made in the previous couple of weeks that people were actually feeling the pinch in the hip pocket nerve and that there was a disjunct between people feeling good during good during the GFC and worse once it was ‘over’.
There are some clear signs of boredom taking over which is good for Gillard and bad for Abbott.
Draw today, with one point each.
Cumulative scores at the end of day 7 is:
Gillard 7; Abbott 7.
From Corrine Grant:
Lol Costello might have rued the day he accepted a job under Boss Man Rudd.
TSOP
That is code for don’t you worry about a thing, we will get rid of environmental water flows.
And interesting spokesperson. Wasn’t she the Libs Cottesloe candidate before Barnette decided to stick around and take over leadership from Buswell?
Chris Trevor getting a big run on CQ WIN TV just now. Quoted his media release almost word for word.
Then segment giving his LNP opponent a good go at cashing in on it. Closely followed by the LNP Capricornia candidate doing the same thing.
Now Bob Brown putting the boot in also.
So many people here on PB that know more than a long term local about how voters behave and are likely to behave.
10 marginal Labor seats in QLD. If Labor lose the lot, then it better pick up some marginal Lib seats somewhere else to make up for them.
If somebody on PB has a better handle on the politics of the Central Qld electorates, then they better step forward and try and give a better review of voter intentions and mood than I can.
I’ve given “MY” opinion on the effects of the continuing vendetta against Kevin Rudd. It is apparent that people here are either prepared to ignore that or chose to believe that there is “NO” effect whatsoever.
That’s fine, but if the Federal Party operatives are of similar mind, then they and you should prepare yourselves for quire a surprise on polling night.
That’s the last I am going to say on the matter. Have it your own way. Rudd’s crap. Julia’s a messiah and a saint, everyone up here believes that and will vote overwhelmingly for a JG led Labor Government in August.
No worries eh! Time to put on the supper.
BK,
Probably, as someone said here awhile ago, ABC were caught off-guard by the leadership change
and in order to be able to get AntiLabor24 up and running in time for an earlier election they had to make a few economies.
Their ABC are desperate to get the 24/7 “news” channel on the air in plenty of time for the election. I’ll leave the cynics to opine about why that should be.
Bandwidth (or spectrum I think is what it is called)
Also the networks got extra spectrum for nothing early this decade (or was it the 90s?) becasue they said HD would be the new thing and they HAD to have more specturm to go HD… and so the Govt gave them it, and they of course realised “wow, we can have lots more channels, in fact we can hasve a lot more if we don’t use up all our specturm with a full HD channel).
Wait for them now to say they need more spectrum for 3D…
Thanks Whig
I have just found out on the ABC website that this is the case.
But why are they using spectrum to broadcast the 24 hr news in HD? Surely this content is not demanding of HD whereas general programming can be enhanced by it.
confessions@1564
Yup, the one of the same who was then rewarded with being Colin’s Chief of Staff untill she was replaced by one of Howard’s Men.
Oh I agree it’s not genuine.
It’s also a part of his misleading “Support real action” theme, by making it look like the reason that the government hasn’t done something is because they don’t want to (despite really being either a bad course of action, or something the government is powerless to do)
And the worst part is without the media calling him out on it, those soundbites work, regardless of Labor’s reply.
Dee
Much as I admire his work, Bill can’t change the systems that determine how we farm. These systems exist outside the farm. What happens on farms are the symptoms. Farmers can shuffle the symptoms around a bit. They can’t change the systems.
The reality is that Bill hasn’t got to within a bull’s roar of sustainable farming. The last time we had significant levels of sustainable farming was before the invention of the internal combustion engine.
If Labor is still manufacturing excuses for not proposing a carbon tax or CPRS/ETS for three years, I would suggest one practical energy initiative that could be made mandatory now in new homes with little pain and would do some good – solar hot water. It is much more efficient than solar panels, cheaper, and there are good sytems readily available. It is mandatory in Ireland now, so why can’t we make it mandatory on new dwellings here? With economies of scale the cost would be not much more than a new hot water system already costs.
It is probably not justifiable in Tasmania or some apartment blocks, but in mainland states we should only be putting in solar with gas or electric boosters in new detached dwellings and for replacement of old systems. They are almost all made in Australia too.
Standards should be specified to make sure we don’t get another insulation debacle; things like stainless steel anodes to ensure decent life. Some will whinge that it will put up the cost of new homes, but the difference is trivial. Solar hot water might cost $3000 to retrofit; less putting it in from scratch. Relative to a $200,000 new dwellign (not counting land cost) it is very little extra.
Truthy?
Boerwar
Do you read any of the literature on depletion of fertiliser (phosphate) resources and the impact of peak oil on intensive agriculture? Quite alarming if accurate.
It may be a tad unrealistic to demand that farming, which necessarily consists of raising as many as possible of just a few species in a given area, be capable of increasing or even maintaining biodiversity.
Socrates
Heat pumps also are an improvement
http://solar1.mech.unsw.edu.au/glm/papers/Heat_pump_water_heaters.pdf
OK, I am going to revise my prediction of SA in the Senate to being a “maybe” 1 ALP-Green, but nominally stay 3-3 ALP-LIB.
Labor will do too well here for the Greens to gain probably.
Just to add to the lament about the government failing to sell its achievements, one thing that’s really annoyed me is how the insulation scheme has come to be tarnished by the negative stuff, with no consideration, much less reporting of the benefits: how many hundreds of thousands (millions?) of homes were insulated, homes which are this winter enjoying the benefits of warmth, greater energy efficiency, and which is also contributing to reduced emissions?
hinking about going to Lake Eyer while its full… it always rains better under Labor.
A friend came back to Vic last Sunday after going to the lake. He said it was really magnificent, colours spectacular – he actually sailed in the “regatta”. Great fun.
Yes, they went from Maree on a very muddy track for about 120k’s to get to the camp site. It took them 3 hours and he could not afford to stop the ute because he knew he would have a hellava time getting going again. He also had a caravan in front of him which he was hoping would not stall. Luckily it kept going.
He only has enormous praise for the dear old Ford ute.
Scorps, most of these are in Brisbane or within 100k of Brisbane. They will be won or lost on hip pocket issues as they always are, the mortgage belt is not just western Sydney.
K
No but they could do a lot better than they do now. Some farmers are their own worst enemies. Too many fail to leave wind breaks to protect their soil, leaving no native vegetation in the area, then wonder why there is no wildlife left to eat the pests that attack their crops. The same is true of stripping trees from the edge of drainage courses – bye bye soil. You can go through farming areas of many other countries and see more of the native trees left than in many of our wheatbelts. When I worked in road authorities the trees left in the edge of rural road reserves were often the only native trees left in an area.
“But Greens are supposed to campaign on green issues, remember?”
what a fatuous comment,…and Labor are supposed to campaign on labour issues?
and the Liberals are supposed to campaign on democratic reforms for Australia?
Socrates
Without a second green revolution-order-of-magnitude change the current several hundred millions of people who go to bed hungry every night will turn into several billions of people who go hungry each night. Ironically, the issues you raise, and other issues such as water shortage have been generated by the green revolution. And all that is before we even start to sort carbon emissions.
IMHO, the only hope is GMOs. This would put the world into the thrall of the likes of Monsanto, so hardly desirable but the alternative are starting to stack up starkly.
Further to my previous posts ABC 24 is only in 720/50Hz. Not really HD.
Frank Calabrese
Twiggy has over exposed himself & taken too many contradicting positions for anyone to take him serious.
Hmm:
Frank: wasn’t she also going to run for the Senate for the Libs at one point? Or am I thinking of someone else…
BK
Thanks; you raise a good point. Heat pumps can be quite economical in new buildings too.
I think they are part of the same general point. If we aren’t going to have a carbon price, then can we at least make the technologies that are already cost effective mandatory? I don’t think we need to be specific about every one; so people could opt to put in solar heat pumps and/or hot water systems. I don’t know the comparative economics of heat pumps, but if both were options people would soon decide if they had to chose one or the other. A policy rule could be devised to cover both.
K
Agreed. Under current systems, farmers have to destroy biodiversity to make a living. (Keeping in mind especially that over 90% of biodiversity is in the soil, not above the soil.)
Socrates
Yes, it is quite disappointing that, after a century or so of awarenss raising, some farmers would still rather shoot themselves in the foot than do anything sensible about integrative even a modicum of their production systems with complementary environmental management. OTHO, quite a few others do what they can within the systemic constraints that they face.
Whilst on the new ABC channel.
Does the Foxtel set top box make the T.V set ready for the digital era?
Following on from that does Foxtel allow you to view the free to air digital channels?
Thanks in advance
Mexi
Thanks to the posters who gave advice on Lake Eyre. Can hardly wait.
Socrates
Posted Tuesday, July 13, 2010 at 6:44 pm | Permalink
Ron 1526
My apology if I got it wrong on the DD trigger. I did not support the first bill for alot more reasons than the 5% figure. The far too generous handouts of free permits, and various exemptions, meant it was neither equitable nor efficient, and a long way from Garnaut’s recommendations.
I DID support the second bill though, as I said. I am not defending the opposition or Greens for canning the scond bill, or Mr X or Fielding; they are all condemned by that decision.
That being said, two wRongs don’t make a right.”
two WRONgs always make a ‘left”
We in agreement that 2nd ETS Bill (where there was NO DD trigger that arose) should hav been pased , and was NOT passed due to Greens NOT voting with 2 Lib Senators …(or altern that Turnbull failed by 2 Lib Party Room votes)
i need to keep saying this as Greens wish to rewrite historys as they’re now embarassed there is NO mitigation Bill operatin in oz present
I did suggest at time but was riticised by othrs that “politcal window’ for an ETS was then in 2009 , and it may close It has , its politcal toxic ….
which IS why given 52/48 and over 20 marginals Julia will not take a price on carbon to 2010 election , its asking for reel risk trouble of not gitting re-elected getting attacked by BOTH Greens and Liberels from opposit directions , one saying cuts not enuf and othr saying its a great new tax Hense Rudds ‘ETS deferal’ politcal decision
Had there been no Greens Party , then tink Labor wuld take on Liberals on an ETS at 2010 Election Socrates its bout getting re-elected so one can govern on other issues
therefore politcaly Socrates , ETS IS off Agenda till 2012 election campiagn seeing Julia wont promise a price on carbon in 2010 I and am sure Labor do not like it and would prefer more , but its politcal reality…..UNLESS Julia somehow in 2nd term ican swing polls (via community type meetingds and adds etc ) to get punters behind accepting that CC mitigaton involves a price to them to pay
If “battle plans” mean eventually pre-selecting candidates what hope for the “battle”?
Socrates @ 1582,
Oh, I’d certainly agree with all of that, and wasn’t trying to imply otherwise! Dead-headed lomperiks abound…
(I was just saying that there are environmental costs even with best practise)
Boerwar
My friends who work on peak oil and food are a bit pessimistic about GMOs in this context. They don’t change the fundamental potential of photosynthesis or hence potential food production. Arid areas are still not arrable. They do reduce the losses to pests, frost etc. But I am no expert on the subject. This guy works on food-plant genetics at Adelaide Uni and has written on the topic:
http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/author.asp?id=4679
Ron 1593
Then Julia needs to say that loud and clear. Otherwise she is seen to be stalling.
Scorps – I think the best thing Chris Trevor could have done was to stand up and say ‘I am standing again because I want to carry on the good work that Kevin Rudd started.
Labor has given you this, this and this and I will ensure that Julia Gillard keeps on with this work.’
Instead he’s carried on like a dumb chook. I read his comments today, word for word, and they sounded awful. Did he get advice before writing that.
Socrates
The name escapes me at the moment but didn’t that former head guy from middle eastern oil address our parliament a while back citing that ‘Peak Oil’ is a real threat, not a concocted fantasy?????
Peak oil will impact on everything. All our industries revolve around oil.
now we know the election is on the 21st will any of the minor parties miss registering with electoral commission
when will the rolls close?
When I was little, I thought Don’s Party was about the Democrats for years… true story. The same 10yo thought processes led me to believe black comedy meant Bill Cosby and Beverly Hills Cop.
TSOP at 1549:
Uhhh…
The Greens do well in Tasmania because of historical issues particular to that state (Franklin Dam, etc). You seem to be trying to say the Greens (or any other party) will get a constant number of votes in each state, which is bogus. Think of it this way: say the Greens got 200,000 votes per state. That’d be something like 50% in Tas, 10% in WA / SA, and <5% in NSW / Vic. Does that sound plausible to you?
Put another way, I once lived in a town of about 600 people. Do you reckon that small population makes it easy for the Greens to do well there? (Hint: the Libs / Nats get about 80% of the primary vote.)
Speaking of Labor not getting their message out – remember just after the Budget the ALP Website had (don’t know if they’ve been removed cos they mentioned Kev) Flyers which actually listed all the achievements which people were encouraged to dowload and distribute in their street/Suburb.
Just checked the ALP website, and as predicted those original files have since been removed and hopefully revised versions with Julia will be made available.
http://alp.org.au/letterbox
Does anyone know if ABC24 is going to be shown on Austar. I’ve emailed them but not received an answer.
Where’s the smiley face, Pebbles? You really don’t need remedial maths, do you?
If ABC24 is only broadcast in HD Digital why bother? Scott should be sodomised with a transmission tower.
Gus – did I miss something. When did they say it would be the 21st Aug?
So Paul Murrary blames Julia for the RortsFor Regions being scuttled.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/opinion/post/-/blog/paulmurray/post/1886/comment/1
We do?
Socrates
I tried to get my solar convertible hot water system converted to solar & couldn’t find a company to do it.
All insisted on a new hot water system & my system was only months old. The green industry is ripe for picking by the rip off merchants.
Beemer
If you have a cable service you can get all FTA channels. If satellite only ABC and SBS channels.
Nauru says it will sign the Refugee Convention and will take the boaties back if asked.
Paul Murray should be sodomised with the GSP figures, while I am on the subject.
BH: this is an excerpt from the Fin Review yesterday:
The article seems to think that ABC24 will be on Foxtel, it’s just where they place it.
Dee
Sorry to hear about the convertible system (I hadn’t heard of such things – sounds a bit odd).
As for peak oil, I was convinced after reading a book, Beyond Oil, by Kenneth Deffeyes a few years ago. I have heard various people speak on it. They are not quacks. Deffeyes was a professor of petrolem engineering at Princeton. Hubbert was the same. Chris Skrebowski was the editor of the main oil industry journal.
Socrates
If the world had time there is considerable potential for GMO-related energy sources from stuff like pond slime.
GMOs can have dramatic impacts on the food value (proteins, vitamins) of existing production, thereby having a considerable multiplier effect.
GMOs can address some of the fertilizer issues by, for example, adding nitrogen to the soil.
GMOs will almost certainly, IMHO, expand what is cultivatable. (From a biodiverstiy point of view, I am not looking forward to it, but it will happen.)
In a whole new world, GMOs in marine environments (which after all is most of earth’s environment) have not even started.
I also think that any analysis that does not treat peak oil, peak gas and peak goal as virtually interchangeable (although with different cost structures) is not a good analysis.
I have very little handle on timelines, scaling up times, pr the likelihood that GMO-based solutions will be practical.
I understand it will be Channel 202 on Foxtel. All the News channels start from 600.
BH
swmbo said she heard iton one of the commerical radio station as she was driving home
I havent seen or heard much today (damn the idea of work)
I just checked google and found nothing
sorry for the false alarm
You’ve got Labor voters in here who honestly believed that no one cared about the GBNT in Queensland except for some far west outback hill billies. These latte sippers are so out of touch with what happens out here in real Australia that it defies belief.
Even after it was explained from myself time and time again that the mining industry was the lifeblood of the eastern seaboard of Queensland, these people continued on with their ignorance and arrogance. It’s probably the same mob that were giving Rudd his advice, completely out of touch with whats happening outside the cacoon of inner Canberra life. We see these same out of touch ignoramuses on shows like Q & A, bewildered anyone could think different to themselves, a real demostration of how locked out of reality some of these inner city chattering classes really are.
Labors still on the nose in Queensland and as I mentioned previously, Queensland much like WA will be relentless. We are not a “fall in line and stand up straight” state, we will do what we please and will take out the trash if need be. Gillards got a better shot than Rudd here but I still think they are on track to lose about 4 seats in Queensland
Whatever Chris Trevor said is likely to be a response to things that have been said to him since the changeover. Perhaps things said to him one too many times, including just maybe advice along the lines of “…if you don’t like it you know where the door is.”
He is one of the new 2007 MHRs, and was obviously very close to Rudd- thus possibly not enamoured of the factions. If so, then his rear is taking up a seat that could be supporting a loyal faction member’s posterior instead…
Whoops, forgot. GMO salmon are being fish-farmed in sea tanks. Their capacity to turn food into fish mass is orders of magnitude bigger than that of naturals.
I swmbo another lemur? I know you can’t help being a long way down the evolutionary ladder from us hominids, but you ought not to believe what other lemurs tell you about hominid affairs.
That’ll reduce the bargaining power of the East Timor politicians.
Psephos, given that Nauru says it would sign the convention and the facilities are there already, how long will labor give e timor before considering Nauru?
Bet Abbott is bummed that he did not recommit to the pacific solution
Or is swmbo is still a turtle?
Tell ‘em you’re dead keen to be able to see Abbott at all hours of the day and I’m sure they’ll oblige.
Why does it matter or not if the country we take the boaties to is a signatory to the U.N refugee charter anyways, when it’ll be OUR staff and OUR money doing the processing?
Just more idealogical rot and holier than thou rubbish from the Labor Party. You know it makes no difference but you’ll pretend to make out you are more “humane”
Nah, it makes Labor look stupid.
Why can’t you send them to Nauru again? Idealogy is that what you said?
Thanks BK.
Get ready with the abacus Robb.
Gusface – she probably heard some little radio person spouting fiction for fact as they often do. Sky was carrying on about that date this morning but they fell a bit flat after awhile and gave up.
confessions – thanks for that. Austar is part owner of A-pac with Foxtel and Stokes so I was worried that we may not get ABC24. If Foxtel is taking it then Austar should as well. ABC2 is on 126 here so they put the new one near that to keep it away from the Fox news stations.
The Big Ship@1544. The difference between Gillard and Abbott is a big contrast. She is clear and concise, and he a mumbling stutterer. Not leadership quality.
Donner und blitzen in Queanbeyan!
Okay, so the leaked Labor internal polling predicted the loss of:
Adelaide
Bennelong
Corangamite
Dawson
Eden-Monaro
Flynn
Forde
Gilmore
Hasluck
Herbert
Hindmarsh
Kingston
Leichhardt
Longman
Macarthur
Macquarie
Page
Robertson
Solomon
Swan
Wakefield
With Dobell and Petrie lineball.
Which seats do people believe Gillard will save?
On 7.30 I heard Abbott say but, but but … 8 times. I wonder if he will beat this during the campaign?
So Santa Claus does exist. What did he bring? The election date?
Actually your comment makes you look stupid but there’s nothing new in that.
I can’t send them anywhere but Nauru is probably an option.
I don’t remember saying that and I don’t know what you mean. I’m fairly sure you don’t know what you mean either.
I see Truthy hasn’t learned either to spell or to make sense while he’s been in exile.
All of them plus more.
All are back in play.
rua
but but
snap, beat me too it…I didnt know whether to laugh or cry or if it was just painful
I doubt that I could do that if I really tried!
I think that’s what ABC2 is for me too. And I won’t be unhappy if ABC24/7 is away from the Foxified news in the 600s. Since the Foxtel revamp earlier this year, I have to wade through channels of Faux news in order to find the BBC, which used to be close to the top of the News Tab, but is now buried somewhere down the bottom.
Boaties, boaties, always with the “boaties”…
Am I the only one who this word reminds of people who live in a canal estate in Mandurah and have a cabin cruiser they take out fishing on the weekends?
BH
yeah julie had to cover late for one of her colleagues today
she said that the bloke was saying wtte “now we know the election is for the 21st”
this was on after the news ,so she presumed that JG had called it.
BK,
I have Foxtel satellite and get all FTA channels.
cheers,
MD
confessions
The logic for assigning channel 202 to ABC24 is that the program is “HD”. All Foxtel HD is in the 200 series.
Mad Dog
Then that’s not the case in SA.
BK: So I won’t be able to view the new ABC24 channel? I don’t have HD Foxtel.
Sorry, confessions. I should have acknowleged Mad Dog
re: Peak Oil.
This site http://www.theoildrum.com/ is the world’s best source on that subject, and all related topics. They have a continuous blog on the BP Gulf disaster, contributed to by absolute experts in the field.
cheers,
MD
I can just hear it, Gus – they do it up here all the time and I have to go searching to find out whether Labor has actually made the comment I’ve just heard. Usually the facts don’t resemble what I’ve heard.
Did anyone else hear Spiers call Julia ‘the methodical PM’ this arvo. The journos on twitter seem to be ridiculing the ‘moving forward’ slogan too.
How old are those? (are they pre-Gillard perchance?)
I sincerely doubt Adelaide and Hindmarsh will be lost, or even be close.
Pebbles
Go over to SportsBet and you’ll see a lot different.
And if you want to spread the word re Rudd’s Achievements – look no further than here.
http://www.dpmc.gov.au/publications/mid_term_report/index.cfm
Short of the ALP holding a gun to the media’s heads how do you expect people to know ?
Mexicanbeemer @ 1591
If you have an IQ Foxtel box, you will need to upgrade to IQ2, which is the HD cable version. This provides all of your existing Foxtel programming, plus a choice of up to 20 additional HD channels (depending on how much you want to spend) some of which are the HD versions of standard definition channels elsewhere on the spectrum. The Free to Air HDs are rebroadcast through IQ2 cable.
Once you got your HD TV, you’re away, and Sport and especially Documentary programmes are an HD sight and sound revelation. Once you’ve got it, you can’t go back.
The ABC News24 HD channel has directly replaced the ABC HD channel (Channel 202 on my IQ2 spectrum) and is currently broadcasting 24 hour promos of what we can expect when it starts up on 22nd July, if Mark Scott can be believed. Given the problems ABC have had with their revised news platform currrently undergoing major teething problems, I wouldn’t want to hold my breath waiting for it to get broadcasting without incident or disaster.
Tony Abbott on peak oil
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tCiHFyLIfu8
Bird of paradox, I am not going to waste any more time on you. You clearly don’t like any analysis outside of your “Greenz rool! Lol!1″ narrative.
I never suggested that the Greens had no policy appeal to Tasmanians. I just suggested they are safe in Tassie due to its small population. THIS IS A FACT.
Jesus, you don’t need to be a psephologist to understand that the smaller the population, the easier it is for a third party – especially in a proportionally representative system.
I’m sorry. But it’s reality. And as such I would rate the chances of the Greens gaining a senator in SA, higher than NSW.
Using one town that votes overwhelmingly Lib/Nat to attempt to disprove my theory shows how truly clueless you actually are.
BK – what is the link for sportsbet please
Psephos – I was wondering what would happen if Nauru did this. Is there any reason now why Labor would not take up the offer if all else fails.
Oooooooooh..there are bad Labor people too…from the ABC website
Charges recommended against ex-MP Paluzzano
The New South Wales corruption watchdog has recommended criminal charges against former state Labor MP Karyn Paluzzano.
do peeps who have foxtel feel comfortable that they are paying to watch advertising
we got foxy way back when it started but as soon as the ads came on we went off
free to air digital seems to offer up enough options
plus as a big bonus the munchkins dont speak yank
Different to what? My claim or itsthevibe’s? I looked, well at least at the SA marginals, and they look pretty straightforward.
Perhaps I am looking in the wrong places. I don’t gamble; betting sites are foreign territory to me.
Manunda Green,
This is NSW, mate. Even the Greens get into trouble here!
Here you go BH
https://www.sportsbet.com.au/sports/summary/SportID/65/CompetitionPID/15197/RoundPID/26011/MenuLevel/C
Pebbles
For instance the betting market for Eden-Monaro has the incumbent Mike Kelly looking relatively safe.
Kersebleptes,
Chris Trevor “is” a faction Member.
He got elected in 2007 for two reasons. 1 was the Rudd factor and the second was his local recognition and respect.
He is struggling in Flynn more now than he was before Rudd got dumped. He knows his own electorate better than any Sydney based operative “ever” could. He gets direct feed-back from constituents as well as through local party operatives and through his Electorate office.
He is now struggling to hold Flynn. There would be no-one else, that could seamlessly slip in and hold that seat for Labor.
He needs all the help and support possible now to do that. Not people working against the one thing that resonated so much in his community.
The State seat of Gladstone “was” one of the safest Labor seats in Qld, even through its darkest days. It has now been held by a LNP leaning Independent for 15 years. Labor supporters in CQ don’t put up with shit being directed towards them.
Labor has avoided that to some extent in Dawson by replacing the retiring Member with a well respected, well known replacement. It will still be a hard ask because it was previously held for many years by the Nationals.
ah gotcha. Thanks BK. I was having a semi-stroke there. There was no way that all of those seats were “lost” – not post-leadership change anyway…
Gusface – here we are in 2010 and we can’t get FTA where we live which is only a hort hop from Newcastle. OH was sick so we got Austar about 14 years ago. Yes, the ads have increased enormously from when we got it and that’s annoying.
OH likes the BBC, CNN and Al Jazeera and a few others so we keep. Love Jon Stewart.
Pebbles
Good.
But it doesn’t look to good for Stephen Smith in th betting market. That would be a great loss when you look at a lot of the dorks (particularly Coalition) who are in safe seats.
BH
I take it you aren’t too keen on O’Reilly. Hannity, Beck and Fox & Friends then.
Evidently you DO need to be a psephologist to see the fallacy in this argument. The size of the electorate in a PR system is irrelevant to the difficulty in winning seats. 14.3% of 300,000 is just as hard to win as 14.3% of 4 million. The DLP never won a Senate seat in SA, for example, even though it has a much smaller population than Victoria. Why? Because there were fewer Irish Catholics in SA for the DLP to appeal to. It’s true that it costs less to run a Senate campaign in Tas than it does in NSW, but then you have far fewer people to raise the money from.
Frank
I enjoyed Abbott warbling on about peak oil in 2008. He would like it to be ‘cheaper’.
How ignorantment.
A downside is there is no FTA digital where I live.
Hence Foxtel.
What’s your rationale for this assertion, Pebbles? Are you suggesting that there is a minimum number of people of a particular third party present in every population? Or are you talking about something akin to the founder effect of genetics in a political scenario?
Adelaide, Wakefield and Hindmarsh won’t be lost.
Just further to me earlier posts. Queensland is a unique place. It has been dominated by the National Party for many years. A whole generation of voters grew up knowing nothing else.
The Liberals, although having a much smaller base support than the Nats, always seemed to be at odds with them even when in Coalition Government with them. A heap of those voters helped get Rudd over the line in 2007.
With the unhappy marriage of Libs & Nats in the LNP, those soft Lib voters are still available to get on board for Labor.
They may have strayed somewhat according to the polls, but Labor needs to get them and soft Labor voters back on side to retain those seats won off the Howard Government.
Abusing them or ignoring their concerns won’t do it.
BK @ 1669
Is Glen Beck real?
I’ve only seen him on the daily show turning someone into Hitler on his board
I thought he was a caricature (sarcasm switch to off)
scorpio @ 1665,
Hey, thanks for that! Doesn’t sound cheering, but good to know. I was groping about in the dark.
Your knowledge trumps my rank speculation.
BK – thanks
Scorpio – I cannot understand how supposedly diehard Labor supporters would deliberately vote for Abbott because Rudd has gone. If Chris Trevor is a really good member then surely his electorate will back him and work for him.
I’m at a loss to understand the ‘cut off your nose to spite your face’ thing in this.
BK, I don’t see the odds for Perth…just Brand, Hasluck, Canning and Swan – all favouring their respective incumbents
The idea is that asylum seekers would find their own way to East Timor to get into the refugee process rather than try the much longer and more dangerous trip to Australia to achieve the same thing. I don’t think that Nauru offers a safer journey to a UNHCR refugee centre.
I think it has already been well established that these were a total fabrication by a bunch of Labor grubs who in their enthusiasm went too far and made it obvious it was faked. I think it is only the happy clappers who cling to this delusion now.
Thomas Paine@1681
Yes Tony – How was the Campaign office opening in Eden Monaro- ?
BK – my secret pinups. haha!! We don’t even look for the entertainment value now altho I love the clips that Jon Stewart shows on his program.
Pebbles
My mistake. Sorry, but I wrongly assumed Smith was the member for Swan, not Perth.
Adelaide doesn’t even get listed – safe as. And Hindmarch is $1.60.
Sportingbet deosn’t even have Hindmarsh listed.
My dad was a Liberal supporter all his life. He “never” had the opportunity to cast a vote for a Liberal candidate in all that time. He was always forced to choose between the Nats & Labor.
Queensland is full of voters like my dad. A strong dislike of the Nationals and if offered a better alternative, are prepared to give Labor a go. They will “never” though, be counted as in the bag and Labor will always struggle to get them on board.
Many of them did in 2007. They need to be convinced that it was a good decision and that Labor deserve a fresh mandate.
Nothing I have seen lately gives me “any” impression that the Labor political machine recognises that fact or intend to do anything about it.
I am not saying there are not variables at play, or that anyone can go to small state and walk into power. I am just saying it is, as a rule, slightly easier to gain the support of a smaller number of people. Than it is a large one.
Forget it. Everybody seems to love talking in absolutes here. It’s not worth it.
I think the last thing JGillard would like to see is a Courier Mail front page photo of a smiling Rudd doing something or other. People will reflect and wonder what was that power grab all about. That would just about lose them the 10.
Established by whom? Links?
I think one fallacy the punters are having is they are assuming that Boothby is safer than Sturt. Just because of the higher margin. Problem is it doesn’t take in qualitative variables. (Which are a bit hard to quantify, I understand)
I’d tip we are more likely to see Boothby fall to Labor than Sturt.
Interestingly it posts almost identical odds for incumbency retention between Hindmarsh and Sturt.
Pebbles
As much as I would LOVE to see the little prat in Sturt defeated I agree that Boothby is more likely to fall.
Thomas Paine@1688
Tom do us a favour and Build a Bridge.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_uxdL8tJ00
Established by nobody. TP is doing what appears to be the only thing he knows how to do: talk bullshit.
You have absolutely no basis for that allegation, which is just your malice taking charge of your brain.
No it isn’t. If it is easier for party A because there are few votes to chase, then it is also easier for party B which is competing for the same few votes. So the advantage cancels out. It is just as hard to win a Senate quota in Tasmania as it is in NSW. Really.
Wow! Someone already has an edit function!
On the above debate about why the Greens do well in Tassie I reckon a major factor is that they have much higher prominence at state level and a major reason for this is that we have Hare-Clark in our Lower House instead of single seats. If we had single seats the Greens would probably rarely win at state level and most likely more environmentally-inclined people would have stayed in the Labor Party, meaning that the Greens would be less prominent and less connected. History is a factor too but a fading one, and here as everywhere else the Greens poll best among demographics too young to remember that history. Small population? Probably less a direct cause than a common consequence of something else that drives Green support levels up, namely the state’s rugged topography that has left it with very large undeveloped areas that are politically significant from time to time. I think Tasmania’s island status is also significant; it encourages a kind of fishbowl approach in which people are prone to see what we have in Tas as extremely significant whether this is actually the truth or not, which leads to a belief that the Tasmanian environment is ultra-special, and hence more Green votes.
And it was a big call…
K
i saw it
I think you’re grasping at straws, Pebbles.
Indeed the new spite towards Rudd among the former admirers so they can feel clean in admiring Gillard was and is truly sickening, but on reflection maybe not surprising.
Gee they would be even happy with a Nauru salution now. LoL Amazing how far people will twist themselves in supporting the next icon on list.
You can bet if Gillard lost they would all be blaming Rudd, guaranteed.
I will never get sick of beating this mangy pinata.
What people here seriously believe Labor was going to lose Wakefield?
I thought you would have to be an anti-Labor fanatic like Bolt to believe that, which is why I thought it was given to him.
Thomas Paine@1700
Blah Blah Blah – You are sounding more and more like this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLXHAj7_NQI
I just wish whomever has taken over TP’s account would just give it back. Truthy, perhaps??
Why not Wakefield, TPS? Labor didn’t hold it before the last election, and the mining tax was proving scarcely less of a disaster for Labor in SA than WA and Queensland. Adelaide was quite a lot less plausible than Wakefield.
He still could, if Gillard manages to pull a big lead, he will be swept with the tide.
I haven’t really witnessed any evidence that he is personally popular in Sturt. But I don’t like to rely on anecdotal evidence, or argue from my own incredulity (which I suspect I may be doing.) So it is possible he could resist a swing a little.
Problem is, you get to a point where there are just no more votes to be flipped in an electorate. Can Sturt be turned before that happens? Judging by the margin, I’d say it could.
You’d probably need a statewide margin of about 55% +/- to see that though.
So how does that work using your eg of the DLP in Vic and SA? Is the catholic vote in both states the same, expressed as a percentage of the overall state population? If it is, then isn’t this just another manifestation of the population argument Pebbles was articulating?
I tell you what worries me, hard core global warming denialists. These people are neither rational or have any compelling scientific evidence to back up their claims, however, they seem to have a large influence in the Liberal party and to a lesser extent Labor. How do we combat this corrosive bullshit?
Two words: mining tax.
Gillard’s policy and personal position on this issue is even worse than Howard’s. She is producing BS at warp speed while backtracking at a similar speed.
To Speak of Pebbles@1651: Apologies, I should have clarified. I was quoting the internal polling which was leaked to Andrew Bolt shortly before the spill occurred.
William, firstly Wakefield was a very different seat until 2004. Secondly where, other than this ‘internal’ polling was there any evidence that a 7% swing was on in SA (or any swing at all from 2007).
But let’s get this clear, you think the predicted loss of Wakefield was credible? I am amazed.
Name one climate denialist in the Gillard government.
The ALP fully acknowledge that climate change is anthropogenic.
You don’t say. For the fifth time…
http://www.smh.com.au/national/parties–not-the-people–choose-leader-says-hawke-20100701-zqra.html
Thomas Paine@1709
Gees the emails from Lib HQ must be coming in thick and fast.
Got your Tony10 T Shirt ready for doorknocking yet ?
How many straw many is it possible to build into the one sentence? Anything else you want to invent. Amazing world where PBs now adopt the manufactured OO meme as their new view of reality.
… and what has the mining tax got to do with Wakefield? We’re talking Libs in the wine growing area of Clare Valley and then there’s Elizabeth!
TP was originally in favour of Gillard assuming the prime ministership because Bludgers he thought that she was more to the left than Rudd.
But since Julia has moved to the right on, especially the mining tax (he wants lower share prices as he’s admitted that he’s switched his savings to cash and some gold), refugees and soon on climate change, he has spat the dummy.
But the real bee in TP’s bonnet is the fact that the Bulls have broken clear of the Bears on the stockmarket.
The FTSE is looking O.K. at the moment as well.
What is a mangy pinata?
The problem Gillard will have with Rudd on the front bench is that he will be more capable than the lot of them, and it will be painfully obvious to the public. Especially if Gillard continues to fluff in her performances.
BH,
I think there are quite a number of factors for this. Up to when Wayne Goss lost Government, Labor supporters in QLD were rock solid. Sticking with Labor through thick and thin.
The Goss Government got offside with the main Labor support base in the Unions and the traditional trust that Union Members had that a Labor Government would “always” look after their interests was shattered. The last three years of the Keating Government didn’t help either.
Since then, there is only a core group of “diehard” Labor supporters in Qld and a fair sized pool that are quite prepared to give the Labor Party a bloody nose and vote for the Tories or Independents if they are unhappy with direction.
The Unions in Qld are currently giving Anna Bligh no end of grief and this is feeding into the Federal sphere also.
Basically, tradition is thrown out the window if they feel aggrieved here and they are certainly capable of cutting off their noses to spite their face. Ask Wayne Goss about it. Councils here that were traditionally Labor strongholds are far from it now.
Over at the Liberals’ site…
http://www.liberal.org.au/flash/contract/pdf/LPA%20OurActionContract_LiberalNationals.pdf
They’ve adopted the ‘Contract’ idea from America (with very American looking coins as part of their graphics).
Some of the commitments:
If people think that putting Gillard was a smart move, I can get that (although not convinced), but I think this Labor need to make Rudd into a disaster is losing grips with reality.
It had credibility to it. There are a lot of miners living in that seat, also quite a bit of new money in areas like Gawler, Munno Para etc.
Also, a few of the Elizabeth voters may be swayed by Abbott’s dogwhistling – but I doubt there is enough really to sway the vote, as most still default to Labor.
pseph
a psephological spank monkey?
Actually, I have to admit I thought the margin of Wakefield was more in the order of 5% than 7%. So no, I wouldn’t have thought Labor were going to lose it in any event. In the event of a calamity though I’d have tipped it to go before Adelaide, which the internal polling also had down as a loss. Not that it makes much sense to interpret the internal polling on a seat-by-seat basis, as the samples in any given seat were obviously very small.
A toy used in a Mexican party game, but in poor condition?
I find it hard to keep up with the slang here at times…
And as TSOP says, I do think Wakefield was the kind of seat where Labor were in trouble: low-income earners aggrieved about the cigarette tax in the south, and concerns about asylum seekers there and in the mortgage belt to the north.
To Speak of Pebbles said: Name one climate denialist in the Gillard government.
The ALP fully acknowledge that climate change is anthropogenic.
Yeah but wheres the action?
mick s
ask the greens and fibs who VOTED down the ETS
I think “mangy pinata” may have been a newly coined one.
Vera, I dont know about the female version of Abbott. I wouldn’t think that possible.
But it is very apparent many here a pure image chasers and maybe are indeed a reflection of the unthinking public. We always assumed that the target of murdoch media memes were the unthinking general public. But it also suits chameleon supporters.
It would maybe worth a study to see how easily peoples positions on politicians and policies can change, even in a matter of days from one extreme to another.
BTW Not wanting to sound stoooopid but how do you do quotes on this blog?
Cheers.
I only wish the betting sites believed that internal polling on Adelaide. I would have been plonking down a fair bit of money on Kate Ellis to hold it.
square backets
By that rationale, the mining tax should only have been a problem for Labor in Grey, where Olympic Dam is located. South Australians credit Olympic Dam for almost single-handedly elevating the state from its rust-belt status, and the mining tax – if BHP was to be believed – was putting a massive expansion of it at serious jeopardy. Marius Klopper was over the SA media like a rash.
Put [] or <blockquote></blockquote> around what you want to quote.
Grog
I don’t like to disagree with you but Don’s Party is a cultural classic
William’s right. Even Rann dissented against it. Which is saying a lot, as Rann is a very federal Labor-friendly premier.
Vera, you can see the degree of contempt they treat you. Because you have a principal and stick to reality you are considered to need recovery. Because you didn’t prostitute yourself in the matter of hours, and rewrite reality….you are the one with shame. But at least some of us know that you are a genuine supporter and no hooker like many others.
Who has said anything like this? Gillard? Swan? Anyone in the ministry? Any Labor MP? The beginning and end of Gillard’s commentary on Rudd was that “the government had lost its way”. This is pure invention.
TP
way off mark dude
Vera recently underwent surgery
frank is right
STFU
She’s been sick and people were wishing her well, (SNIP: Abuse deleted – The Management).
FWIW, I think the that the ALP have little to worry about in SA now. They may even gain Boothby or, luck willing, Sturt. Gillard seems to be popular here.
So how many Labor supporters are you counting then? Only enough to elect Ton Burns’ cricket team? Or the years when Hayden and Bevis had only eachother for company when flying down to Canberra? That seems to imply a very small rock solid base of Labor supporters.
Thomas Paine,
Ah, you’re off-track now with the vera comment!
That wasn’t a figure of speech, but meant literally.
For those voting noobs among you (yep this is the first fed election in which poeple born in the 1990s will get to vote), Antony Green has the straight dope:
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2010/07/how-to-vote-guide.html
Seriously dude. Quit it.
You’re crossing the line.
Who has said anything like this? Gillard? Swan? Anyone in the ministry? Any Labor MP? The beginning and end of Gillard’s commentary on Rudd was that “the government had lost its way”. This is pure invention.]
So you don’t think this list of predicted losses would have been a disaster, Psephos? I was talking about people on this site, including you.
The Late Show did it best as “Ron’s Party”
(go to the 3 min 12 mark)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ug2WzYKvhsw
*Insert really dirty joke here*
The ETS wasn’t exactly world changing policy. I am sure Labor could have easily come up with something better if it put some thought into it instead of worrying about opinion polls.
Before I get flamed I must say that I thought Kevin Rudd was a damn good PM. Towards the end he had trouble getting his message out as was no doubt screwed by the MSM.
Amigo Finns, I miss U2 and it should have been
DOLPHINING UNDER the COVERS
(1735) William, I have not seen any evidence other than this Bolt polling that there was a big swing on against Labor in SA from 2007.
Anyway, for whatever little it’s worth, here’s my assessment of the situation at present…
Definite Labor losses: Dawson, Flynn, Hasluck, Herbert, Leichhardt, Solomon, Swan
At high risk: Forde, Gilmore, Lindsay, Longman, Macarthur, Macquarie, Robertson
At medium risk: Bass, Bennelong, Bonner, Corangamite, Dickson, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Kingston, Moreton, Page, Petrie
At slight risk: Blair, Braddon, Brand, Deakin, Greenway, Makin, Wakefield
The only seat that I’m tipping Labor to gain is McEwen, and I might also give them an outside chance in Boothby, Bowman, Cowper and La Trobe.
Overall I think Gillard’s elevation means that Labor’s performance will be slightly stronger than it would have been under Rudd, most significantly in SA. Queensland has overtaken WA as the main problem area.
mick s
the greens and the fibs were the ones who voted down the ONLY legislation presented to the parliament
Its worth will never been known thanks to the unholy alliance of dumb and dumber
To Speak of Pebbles@1747
It seems Tom is emulating his new found hero and has done a “Bernie”.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjklT59clE4
TPS, evidence for anything is invariably thin on the ground in this caper. I’m reliably informed though that the SA Labor hierarchy and marginal seat MPs were shitting bricks.
Not Leichhardt, Warren Entsch has had his go, Jim Turnour (sitting Member) sent out SMS messages from 7.00am the day Rudd was rolled throwing his support behind Rudd, far from looking like picking the wrong side he showed a lot of people he does stand for something, and as some other people have said although Labor is on the nose in the State, he has strong support from the unions, especially the ETU & QTU (not sure about the nurses though). Lot of building workers kept their jobs here due to the schools program. Labor will win in Liechhardt.
It’s Time,
Exactly. The ones that came on board with Goss in 1989 jumped ship pretty quickly and came back on board with Beattie. Although they stuck with Howard Federally.
The “solid” base is small and shrinking as many of the old stager’s fall off the perch. All I was trying to point out is that the voters who went to Labor through Beattie and recently with Rudd, are extremely soft and consist of disillusioned soft Labor and soft Liberal voters. In effect a larger than average number of swingers.
Socrates
Posted Tuesday, July 13, 2010 at 7:14 pm | Permalink
“Ron 1593
Then Julia needs to say that loud and clear. Otherwise she is seen to be stalling.”
She did !!
She said she suported a price on carbon but there is no community consesus to pay for it and she will work towards that if re-elected , and that therefore an ETS is off until end 2012 when world actions can then be measured
MSN took no notice of this , and people think wrongly she will announce a price on carbon promise for 2010 Election , I dont think so
(1757) Party hierarchy in panic, especially in SA, sounds much more credible.
Are you seriously saying the Greens and the Libs were in any sort of alliance? Seriously!
mick s
when the votes were counted , labor voted yes
the fibs and greens voted NO
what other way should I look at it?
a coincidence? a quirk?
You know, we could program this site to have the same 50 or so comments going round in a cycle, like a playlist on a radio station, 24 hours a day – then we could all go and do something else.
but pseph where else would we get our eggcitement
No. No! NO!!!
Psephos@1764
Or in TP’s case the same song over and over again:-)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dgb2hrjJXRk
I did this afternoon. Went and mowed the lawn when I was getting spragged for doing nothing more than telling it how it is where I am.
Apparently some here don’t like hearing the truth but they are certainly entitled to their opinion, even if it “is” uninformed and wRONg!
TSOP
So no eggistenstialism for you
Does anyone else think PMG and Labor are letting the early election stories run in order to get some panic into Libs and flush out some policies, as well as get the media listening up and focussed on election issues?
To be fair to Thomas he has gotten the wrong end of the stick but my op was 2 months ago and he may not have been aware of it
I can see him sitting in a room with a candle burning, a tear stained photo of Kevin and Air Supply playing on the stereo…
“I’m all out of loooove…”
Gusface,
Seriously!!!
I look at it like this:
1. The Liberals are political luddites and the Greens didn’t think the legislation went far enough.
2. Labor thought they could negotiate with the Liberals, it back fired.
Hopefully after the election when the Tories (Libs+Fielding) don’t contol the senate perhaps some real action on climate change can be passed.
Oh, by the way, I am actually very worried about man made climate change, to me it’s only partly about politics, mostly I am thinking about my children and their future.
1892CFC @ 1676
Unfortunately, Glenn is all too real, and he’s become an ominous force in US politics with his particular brand of conspiracy theory madness and anti-Obama hysteria. There is no equivalent in Australian broadcasting except amongst the most rabid late night talk back denizens, and Glenn commands an impressive viewing audience on Fox News.
Glenn specialised in his own peculiar brand of excursion to the outer reaches of lunacy, ticking all the boxes of right wing, reactionary bigotry on the way – homophobic, racist, misogynistic, pro-life, pro-gun, pro-death penalty, pro-Republican and above all anti-Barack Obama, who is regularly vilified as a treasonous betrayer of the US way of life and a Communistic Dictator bent on destroying their American Freedoms – and this freakshow is a ratings fest with millions of vapid viewers tuning in each day to have their fears confirmed, and their prejudices stoked with more lies and propaganda.
That is what Glenn Beck is – a fear monger, pure and simple, pandering to the basest instincts in his cowering audience of moronic bigots.
Sound familiar?
vera,
That’s right- so I wasn’t harsh!
You’re not egging me into doing it again…
…
DAMMIT!
Mick S,
Well, no. But they did vote the same way (no).
“Something better” cannot have been done in this Parliament, even with the best will in the Govt- simply because of the numbers.
Assuming a Labor victory in the coming election, and a sole Greens BoP (and most importantly, good faith and realism in negotiation on both sides) in the new Parliament’s Senate, then something better is indeed around the corner.
But there’s still the rest of the world to consider, though. And pissed off voters in a democracy. And quite possibly a still-denialist Opposition prepared to say anything.
So still a few problems ahead.
I was, for good reason.
While the offence to vera was forgivable, as vera states, TP may not have known. The implication on our “behavior” was not. Calling us all sorts of names, and assuming the worst about us. It takes some really zealous hatred to spew that kind of crap.
Just for the record, it’s not the insult, it’s just the stupidity behind it.
Maiden and Franklin at the OO are tweeting that Julia G is creepy for talking to us through the camera when she gives pressers. They want eye contact with them.
So now the PM must give them respect and the sense of importance they think they deserve!! How quaint.
TSoP,
Perhaps a bit hair-trigger…
I agree. Entsch is recycled, and not the better for it.
TSOP
I knew you would crack
All it took was a bit of egging on
William Bowe
Posted Tuesday, July 13, 2010 at 9:25 pm | Permalink
“TPS, evidence for anything is invariably thin on the ground in this caper. I’m reliably informed though that the SA Labor hierarchy and marginal seat MPs were shitting bricks.”
The Piping Shrike
Posted Tuesday, July 13, 2010 at 9:29 pm | Permalink
(1757) “Party hierarchy in panic, especially in SA, sounds much more credible.”
and it was over beleived dire marginal seat polling , what else
a Labor 52/48 WITH a 33% or 35% Primary vote….INCLUDING all Labor safe seats ….means marginal seats by extenson hav an even lower Primary vote than 33% to 35% !!
and people who think most of those 21 plus Labor marginals were strongly favored to be held with such disaster marginol primary voting needs a politcal whisky
I wonder why the Greens are not making any fuss over the fact that NZ were able to legislate for an ETS yet Australia could not?
Probably because of the fact that the ETS the Greens rejected, the one that Rudd and Turnbull finally agreed on, was much harsher than the one in NZ.
That’s the all or nothing numbskull Greens for you!
And grand ole Rupe just loves him.
egging on? I was shell-shocked!
Geezus, am I in the twilight zone or wot?
We all (and rightfully so) called Howard all sorts of stuff such as a racist inhumane lying populist prick who’d do anything to win the election by pandering to peoples’ xenophobic fears about asylum seekers.
Stick them on Nauru and forget about them, outa sight outa mind that’d keep the voters happy.
And who will ever forget one of the most sickening statements in our history
“We will decide who comes to this country etc etc”
But now suddenly it’s a great Labor policy to do the same bloody disgusting thing!
As Pauine would say
Please Explain
this shite is doing my head in
The traction that Beck, Limbaugh, Hannity and the like get in the US is both amazing and worrying.
I worry that, win or lose, whatever Labors seat total after the election, there will be some who claim Kevin will have gotten more/Labor would’ve done better if it wasn’t for the “betrayal”
Time for the Tour de force
Go cadel
Bloody big hills to climb today
This I can understand
ditto
But realistically you need something to get the ball rolling, and the greens seemed to rubbish what in essence they were advocating (im talking generalities not specifics)
with the ETS the scope to ramp it up was always present
the fibs i can understand for their stoopids but the greens just seemed intent on publicity not action
vera 1788
I am just glad Chris Evans, a man who actually cares about AS and sees them as human beings, is the minister in charge of the issue. Unlike the undead people the Liberals tend to put in the role!
You guys don’t really get politics do you
ManundaGreen@1794
Neither do the Greens it seems
man under
yeah only the girls do
we just fill in time till they grace us with their wisdom
vera, Labor has not said that it will not process the legitimate claims of asylum seekers.
Maybe you have been preoccupied with your Bunnies winning 8 games and sitting in the top 8.
What? You think only the female of the species does?
Kersebleptes
Sounds good to me, I guess the Greens and Labor HAVE to communicate, no use talking to the Liberals unless they trash all the dead wood.
Interesting times ahead.
Interesting international news. The Chinese have released a list of what it considers the real economic ratings. Countries like America and European nations are rated an A while Australia and several others are rated triple AAA
In short China thinks the Australian economy is in great shape.
Vera – I’d like to go back to Fraser’s policy of processing refugees as quickly as possible closer to where they came from. That would mean they didn’t have to pay a miserable slug for putting them on a boat and pointing them out to sea.
If a few countries got together to do this it might give more people hope and stop the ridiculous things like Tampa and Oceanic Viking from happening.
I ment to say “trash all their dead wood”.
Sorry.
Yes, you are. But you’ve got a lot of company!
Good on you for saying it!
No Mananda, I’m pissed and amazed, suddenly it seems Howie policies are all good if Labor takes them on board
I waited 12 years to be rid of him and his policies, may as well not have wasted my time it seems!
Manunda Green,
Oh, I don’t. Not before, anyway.
Do you?
It’s not respect they are seeking. They want Gillard to talk to THEM and then THEY can tell us what she said. They don’t like Labor PMs speaking directly to the people. Rudd bypassed the media when they began to twist his messages and as we all know that peeved then big time. They insist on being the messenger.
The Silver Bodgie gets it right:
I don’t think the Vietnamese boat people were “processed” at all. We knew exactly who they were, where they coming from, and why they were coming. There was no possibility of repatriating them, so there was not much point in “processing” them. Some of them turned out to be undesirable elements, but we accepted that as part of our responsibility to people whose country we’d participated in destroying and then abandoned to the enemy. The situation now is quite different.
Centre
Yours and BH’s Eels came good last night too!
I was commenting on this
For the Keating fans here. An interesting clip I spotted linked to on The Daily Bludge.
http://www.abc.net.au/tv/bigideas/stories/2010/06/28/2938830.htm
If you really believe all that you should duck out and have a great big bet on the Libs at $4.
But I’ll bet you won’t.
No vera, they are not Howard’s dog whistling policies.
The idea of establishing AS processing centres for nations in our region is a sensational policy if agreements with other nations can be reached.
I love this… I absolutely love this.
Can you tell me exactly whats wrong with that statement, why is the leftie brigade so offended by this statement?
Does the left think Australia SHOULDN’T decide who comes here? Does the left think Australia SHOULDN’T decide in what circumstances?
That statement was a statement of Australia’s UNDENIABLE RIGHT of SOVEREIGNTY.
The left think Australia should be an open door country… the left can’t accept this OUR country, not some drop in centre for anyone who wants to come here. Deal with it.
Australians fully support what Howard said.. they did then and they will do so now.
G’day Vera
Labor aint going to use Naru , anfd I would oppose it as well
Assylum Seekers mostly ex Indonesia hav to pass East Timor , and thn risk oceans and many then drown Having process in East Timor under UN Convention will save lives as its no good to A-S passing East Timor under UN Convention , getting picked up and returned there
A-S do not and can not pass Howies Naru , its a big dog leg to left seas , and was not under UN Convention anyway , and most did not get processed , imprisioned there by Howie , then given TRV’s
BTW why is Kevin07 getting trashed ? 115 MP’s made a politcal call on marginal seat polling numbers to change leaders to guarateee Labor gitting re-elected ,
BUT these 115 Labor MP’s did NOT vote to say Kevin07′s polkisys were crap , Kevin07 was prime driver of these great “left Reforms” over 2 years in Educ , Health, GFC , apologies , gut workchoises , tried ETS’s , Infrastructures ets ets ……..do peoples hav sho0rt memories here
vera I gather that if Nauru signs the refugee convention, people will be treated humanely and their claims will be processed quickly and Australia will take its fair share.
There so stick it up you Truthy
I never said there was a suggestion that the government was considering Nauru. Obviously the Nauruvians would like to make a bid, because they need the money. But there are many arguments against using Nauru even if they sign the Convention.
Bloody scary
Sarah Palin
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jul/12/sarah-palin-election-war-chest
Whatever happened to Musrum, the saviour programmer of genius?
On a side note – anyone got their tax refund back yet? Did mine on the 1st using eTax, have always had it back by now, easily. Not this year.
Darn, when did I say I think the Libs will win?
if kev said after the knifing for his followers to gather under flag, then i would have been among the first to raise the standard
he didnt he has moved on and has said openly that he will campaign for the re-election of the Gvt
i suggest that those who come to bury kev may in fact be stoking the fires as much asthose who come to praise him
and meanwhile the fibs and greens make hay
Hi Ron, good to have you back
The Rudd bashing aint doing the party any favours in my opinion.
It is really getting on my tits to tell you the truth!
It’s enough to make a moooer hoof “get stuffed the lot of ya’ across her ballot paper
I don’t think TP should be censored but I think he has certainly “radicalised” as one poster put it the other day.
Not sure whether we should be alert or alarmed…
I think maybe his Vera’s recovery jibe was good old fashioned sh!t stirring – in poor taste though
Climate change deniers, annoying but funny:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2010/jul/13/climate-sceptic-morano-award
Gusface,
Relax. PB is only responsible for >1.5% of national stoking.
We’d need to reach a consensus for any stoking mitigation scheme, anyway.
Vera , I know folk who’ve counted votes on election night and you wouldn’t be the first to write messages on your ballot paper – though I dare say your proposed wording is much milder than most of what they read!
I think it was Dee who said earlier today that somebody who was ‘imprisoned’ by Howard on Nauru was suffering from phosphate poisoning. It doesn’t sound like Nauru is the place to go.
To me the worst part of Abbott’s policy is the TPVs – leaving people in limbo for years with the dread of being deported at any moment is a dreadful thing to do.
Not to mention his gutlessness in making the Navy take responsibility for turning boats back. Hang on, I forgot that Libs have signalled to the AS today that it is only meant as a deterrent and they won’t really be able to turn the boats back. Good one, Tone
Darren L
I can imagine
WHAT “Rudd bashing”? Show me where anyone in the Labor Party has said anything bad about Rudd since the change! (Comments on blogs don’t count.) Labor commentary has in fact been very tactful. Labor wants as little commentary about Rudd as possible, and there is no mileage at all in “bashing” him.
BH
Tone’ll need to buy a few dozen more Navy ships and recruit a few thousand more sailors to man them with all that turning around he’s got in mind!
No, I think stuff-up rather than malice.
Quick to post, while not being in possession of vital info
ended badly.
Joe is on lateline
The title is a misnomer. Skeptics and deniers are different.
Skeptic = someone who holds back from believing or endorsing an assertion/hypothesis until they see adequate evidence supporting it.
Denier = someone who refuses to accept something, even though evidence and professional consensus supports it.
Gusface
He is here too; check him out in his thoughtful pose:
http://mcdonalds.com.au/#/home
DL – There were very few in our booth in 2007 but lots in 2004, Howard/Latham. Plenty of boofhead drawings or words about Latham. Nothing about Howard except the words ‘we decide’ which was on some of Howard’s posters outside.
Another interesting thing was that almost nobody took any HTVs in 2004. They walked straight past and into the booth – the writing was on the wall pretty early in our area.
BH, do you think that some idea of the Naval hierarchy’s reaction to this thought bubble may have quietly reached Abbott? I’m sure they were applauding his courage!
Agree totally about TPVs, too.
We processed the boaties on Nauru you silly sausage.
The left are so full of hot air, they could power China.
It’s all about Idealogy for your lot… aren’t interested in facts, aren’t interested in reality.. just lots of feel good piss and wind. Can’t send the boaties to Baxter, but you’ll open Curtin back up cos it didn’t get a run by the lefties as much back in Howards day. Same deal with Nauru… can’t send em there, the leftie brigade did a number on the name back in Howards day… heck who cares that East Timor will be exactly the same circumstances.. you lot will pretend it’s totally different because you are full of IDEALOGICAL ROT.
Lao
glen will be on the warpath
Tho I do wonder at the uncanny resemblance sloppy bears to shrekky
Joe: “Workchoices is dead, I ate it”
Gus
An uncanny resemblance, but you can tell the difference because he looks smarter than him
The only real difference between Howard’s centres in PNG and Nauru is that some in the ALP brains trust hold a vain hope that voters will have forgotten that PNG was part of the Pacific Solution. Of course if they can get Nauru to change its name, she’ll be apples.
There are few things uglier than a happy Bob Baldwin…
Joe: ‘we are the only party that can offer stabilty, we change our leaders regularly”
Just listening to Leigh Sales and Joe chuckling away. In her intro she said that the successful economic recovery (all Labor’s work) would only cause a wages increase plus inflation. Some backbencher didn’t like the deposing of Rudd (shame, shame). It’s all bad. No matter what happens that’s good. No matter that we’re the best performing economy in the Western world, all the figures are fudged by Treasury, we’re miserable and headed for doom under Labor.
Only Joe Hockey can save us.
Absolute rot from the ABC. Why do they bother?
Lao
i thought it was the ears
TTH, it’s ideOlogy. With an O.
hmmm Gus, you could be right
http://resources0.news.com.au/images/2007/06/06/va1237250478331/Joe-Hockey-and-Shrek-John-Feder-Reuters-5514235.jpg
Joe: ‘we have detailed costings,here have an A4 sheet of paper”
Vera – I’d love to see the Navy say ‘get st…ffed’ Tone – do it yourself.
Kersebleptes – you could be right and hope so. It must be difficult for some of those blokes who have kids to see watch as they shove a boatloaded with women and children back into international waters. It’s quite different to taking them to CI in an orderly fashion and it’s inhumane.
Amigo Vera, who do you TRUST under covers? Abbott, Sloppy, Bishop or the Cardinal?
How right you are.
vera
GOLD!
Joe: ” tony has a plan for a solid secure future,thats why he gets on his bike and runs away”
Someone at The Tally Room reports Fiona Scott, a “marketing manager”, has won Liberal preselection for Lindsay by 31 votes to seven.
vera
Posted Tuesday, July 13, 2010 at 10:28 pm | Permalink
“Hi Ron, good to have you back
The Rudd bashing aint doing the party any favours in my opinion.
It is really getting on my tits to tell you the truth!
It’s enough to make a moooer hoof “get stuffed the lot of ya’ across her ballot paper ”
agree , and its unjustified !!
Kevin07 accepted loss by MP majority with abosolute grace in farewell speech ,
then Julia respected that grace by Kevin07 by GUARATEEING him a SENIOR Cabinet position after election….she could hav nuanced that but did not so so , it was unqualifed All Labor suporters should do th same
about time peoples stopped trashing a successful Labor PM in Kevin07 , who was main driver of a great Labor reform record H lost his job simple , bad marginol polling nyumbers and it happens to ALL PM’s , including Hawkie ….sooner or later !
(no moooer hoof ‘s please!
Joe, Joe,
Pound for Pound these guys are just series of ridiculous clichés.
Her husband will be kept under lock and key during the campaign.
No bloody idea!
Joe: “we will provide strong borders,thats why we pass the blame onto the navy”
They’d be nothing without the debased media to propagate their childish slogans.
Finns – you know it’s gotta be her OH!
BB – what does Sales think is going to happen if the Libs get in and the economy keeps on growing. Does she think that wages and inflation and interest rates will stay where they are? She is as bad as the rest of them now. It’s such lazy rhetoric.
How did you stop from belting the telly screen?
Who is he and what does he do, Psephos?
Amigo I can’t decide but I’m guessing you would go with the Cardinal virtues
http://www.themasonictrowel.com/Articles/Symbolism/general_files/the_four_cardinal_virtues/FourCardinalVirtues1.jpg
My favourite Cardinal was always Cardinal Sin.
Natural tendency to unhinged pamphleteering out there?
Because it’s THEIR abc.
Certainly the most ribald sounding cardinal!
Mine is Cardinal Numbers
Well, the husband of the former member for Lindsay was a mailman who delivered mail long after the sun had set.
So, according to Joe there is no such thing as a mandate. The election that will be a “referendum, on tax” and a “referendum on climate Change” is no such thing. If the Coalition loses they will ignore the results of their own, self-declared “referendum” and do what they bloody-well feel like.
Then they will blame the government for not getting its program through, for actually reneging on their promises, for chickening out on the hard decisions.
Even though our economy is the envy of the World, it is enough that people don’t “feel” secure. This is all Labor’s fault. Nothing to do with an obstructive Senate that ignores election mandates of the victorious side.
This is, presumably, “stability in government”.
Sheesh…
Amigo, i dont think you should trust these Cardinals here:
http://tinyurl.com/32wrelv
The Liberals can’t be faulted for exposing the truth about Labor, even when it’s lies
It’s late and I’m a bit slow but I get it now. Orf to bed!
Gus, i seem to remember also there was a Cardinal Rule
We just bought a new screen due to the old one dying from the shame of my shouting at it all the time.
I have a silicone ashtry that I can hurl at the new flat-screen that just bounces off harmlessly. The only injuries have been the dog who received a ricochet last week.
Just heard tone’s “Who do you trust?” line. He said that line with the same sly sense of humourous deceit of another former Liberal leader. In fact, when I saw it, if I had my eyes closed, I would’ve sworn it was a Howard soundbite from years back…
“We just bought a new screen due to the old one dying from the shame of my shouting at it all the time.”
that was a mirror you were shoutin at
To Speak of Pebbles
Posted Tuesday, July 13, 2010 at 11:14 pm | Permalink
“Just heard tone’s “Who do you trust?” line. ”
Pebbles I do but pray he stiks to that as th Liberal theme , it will increase Labor votes no end Per polls he is not trusted
I think I heard Tone say today the election will be about who people trust – the Labor party under Julia Gillard or the Liberals under him.
I just hope he keeps saying that all through the campaign.
Oi, do you trust this silly old bugger with our Jules?
http://images.theage.com.au/2010/07/12/1689794/pointer_HAWKE2-192×128.jpg
We must have been reading each other’s minds Ron. .
Tones is running a “Who do you trust?” line?
Its surely the Gospel Truth that this is the equivilent of a “Please Please Kick Me” hung around his neck??
Amigo Ronnie, you should trust me!!!!!
I have found that the “strength” that the Libs highlight is always their weakness.
If the Liberal is slimy and untrustworthy, then it is “who do you trust?”
If the Liberal has no policies, except to attack Labor, it is “Real action!”
If their concern is just trivial reactionary issues and those that affect the top end of town it’s “things that matter.”
Pebbles, it does seem that Abbott is trying to emulate his pinup boy Howard in every way.
I just hope he keeps doing it. He seems to have forgotten that Howard was thrashed at the last election.
Does his mind read any clearer than his posts?
God Hockey is such a blubbering baby!
Perhaps Tone is just practicing for his new job after he gets the boot – standup comedy.
Minus the pragmatism.
Don’t worry, the MSM will be first on their feet in ovation when he announces which Australians he is going to screw over today.
the workchoices thing really made joe squirm
no matter how many times they say they dont want workchoices back
the public just remembers why they voted out the fibs
Alright bludgers I’m off for good after tonight. Other things to do with my time. I wish you all a good election.
How long before Julia starts reminding people that Tone has already admitted he can’t be trusted. It should be as easy as shooting fish in a barrel.
Leigh: “Is it a peaceful invasion?”
Joe: “It is. They come here uninvited.”
“I’m not using inflammatory language!”
That’s what makes a slogan that mentions TRUST such a stupid decision. Who the hell is managing Abbott day to day?
Leigh is good tonight.
Hockey contradicting himself. One minute whining because Labor sought to block the GST post-1998, yet a minute later said that it’s the democratic duty of an opposition to try an block legislation. (re: ETS)
Hockey’s whining sounding like a user post on the news.com.au website. That was not a good interview for him. Leigh was very good!
Pity most Australians will never see it. (Except maybe a cherry picked soundbite for the 6pm news)
A pretty amazing line for someone who is half Armenian and half Palestinian – two of the most widely dispersed peoples in the world.
And so, as the rain thunders down in Eden-Monaro (courtesy of Colonel the Hon Dr Mike Kelly, Parliamentary Secretary for Rain), I wend my way to bed.
Darn
Posted Tuesday, July 13, 2010 at 11:18 pm | Permalink
“We must have been reading each other’s minds Ron.”
Darn , yea Mate
Howard at least had a thread to hang on to using that line , Abbotts got none !
FINNS
“Amigo Ronnie, you should trust me!!!!! ”
I do , all amigo’s trusted 100%
Ron
Compadres as well, I hope
Behind the Scenes of the Greens Federal Vic Election Campaign.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ri4vlVxYyXc
usface
Posted Tuesday, July 13, 2010 at 11:39 pm | Permalink
“Ron
Compadres as well, I hope”
absolutely Gus
Actualy Gus , I still cann’t beleive Abbott silly delivered that who do you trust line !
Well I never! Never thought I’d see the day that someone at their ABC would refer to the Opposition leader in such a fashion and certainly not one that is more than happy to let the world know exactly how she intends to vote at the coming election.
Should be more of it, but won’t be, mores the pity.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/12/2950655.htm?site=thedrum
Ron
maybe i should stop sending those pithy emails to tone
i thought he would have twigged by now that howie@optus.net.au was a prank account
It IS hard to fathom Ron. I think he sees himself as the second coming of Howard.
Let’s just hope he keeps on delivering it.
tho signing off with
“god save the queen and torpedo the boats” would have given the game away one thinks
Frank Calabrese @ 1901
Is Hanson-Young giving Bob the finger (around the 42 second mark)?
Marieke Hardy sure stirred up the natives with that piece. 196 comments before it was shut down. The first two give some idea of how much.
LOL.
Darn
Posted Tuesday, July 13, 2010 at 11:49 pm | Permalink
Ron ‘I still cann’t beleive Abbott silly delivered that who do you trust line’
“It IS hard to fathom Ron. I think he sees himself as the second coming of Howard.
Let’s just hope he keeps on delivering it.”
I’m with you on that Darn
G morris has been pushing the trust line for a while now
In the absence of policy, tone is going for the last grasp of the straw.
It really is a dog whistle to the base at the end of the day
Bed beckons. Nite all.
School uniforms – wtf? Is Gillard channeling the ghosts of state governments past for ‘vision’ now? What about a tough stance on hoons to really fire the public imagination?
This grab for power of Gillard pretty much disgraces the whole party and especially Gillard who can offer no real excuse. She should be ashamed of herself.
I think IS why we have seen such a concerted effort from hacks and all to try and smear Rudd to death. Cockroaches and maggots infest the Labor Party as much as the Liberal Party at the moment. Unfortunately there are enough mindless happy clappers out that wont hold Gillard’s betrayal to any sort of standard. theirs is a heavy shame.
The media should focus on and examine this transition more closely over the next few weeks, especially the rationale offered by Gillard and others. The people deserve to know what sort of person who is putting themselves up for PM.
Abbott is Dreaming:
TP:
ffs stfu and move on already – or are you really a Liberal Party Stooge ?
TP, i used to enjoy your posts. But its getting so i just flick past them now as they are all so wrapped up in poor kevie crap.
Just watched Sloopy Joe on Lateline. Here is a man who is no threat to the Govt if ever there was. Virtually no substance to anything he had to say, all slogans and crap.
Never has an opposition been so deserving of such derision from so many.
Very good article by Shaun Carney in The Age:
Eloquently put, Frank.
But this shows exactly the problem.
Rudd definitely had a problem with the electorate, anyone could see that from any polls published, you didn’t need ‘internal’ polls to tell you that but
1) it was not as bad as Abbott’s and
2) all polls before his ousting showed that he was still preferred to Gillard.
Has replacing him with Gillard made it better? Perhaps, but Carney points to the problem. Gillard may want to return to a slower more methodical approach but now can’t. The thought that playing up asylum seekers issue and making an extraordinary act like dumping a first term PM may have negative effects is not even allowed to be considered it appears. To me, they are reasonable points.
The other problem I have is the credence now being given to internal Labor polling. that was clearly leaked with specific political purposes. Internal Liberal polling is now saying Rudd’s dumping is playing very badly in Queensland (contrary to what some ‘experts’ here expected), am I suppose to believe that? I never would have in the past but seen it for the self-serving political ploy it was.
Hmmm
52-48
That’s about the same as when Rudd got the boot isn’t it? So when are they going to knife Gillard?
Diog, after you!!!!!!!!
Thomas Paine, are you auditioning to become the resident VI of PB after the expulsion of Toothy and the retirement of Glen.
Dont give up, “you are dong very well” as the young Mr. Grace would say.
Diogenes, actually rudd’s last Nielson was 53/47 to the Coalition, Labor was scoring a primary in the low to mid 30s and Rudds net approval rating was around -20. People had stopped listening.
Ahh, so under an Abbott government, the only people who will be allowed to apply to come to Australia to settle must have first been invited!
“Dear Resident
after a long and exhaustive examination of your life and character, the Government of Australia is pleased to inform you that you – yes, YOU! – have been approved for Australian citizenship.
We know that you have never expressed any interest in becoming an Australian citizen, or approached any of our embassies for information, so that this invitation will come as a surprise to you.
Please consider our offer very carefully, but note that you must RSVP to this invitation by XXXX or your invitation will expire.
Yours….”
A novel approach, but perhaps one worth trying – at least we would then get a better class of migrant.
(Insert sarcasm symbol here).
I love the unconscious hypocrisy of this – “The Greens do have policies! You just haven’t bothered to read them!” followed by a list of areas where Labor does have policies, but the commentator obviously hasn’t bothered to read them.
Anyone getting bets on already? I was surprised my Sportsbet account still works, haven’t used it since 2007, and SportINGbet won’t let South Australians bet on the election!!! I was posting here under a different name then (many crashes ago) can’t remember it but I am much more of a reader-er than a poster-er.
My husband snored all night hence my early bored appearance here (I have given up sleep)
And a more serious question- is it worth actually joining a political party? I never have (but then I have been in Mensa for 25 years and am yet to go to a meeting…) I was all set to join Labor, Google earthed the actual building I had to go to etc but then Kevvie was ousted and I have felt somewhat deflated. But onward and upward.
Would you believe that at my feet our new dog just chewed my laptop power lead apart (on the 12V side fortunately)!
BK I have heard of pet rabbits doing that but not dogs! A puppy?
It is about time the great myth, being spruiked by Australias Great Big New Liar (GBNL),
about house fires was put to bed.
According to NRMA there are 10,000 house fires a year in Australia causing more than 1500 injuries and 70 deaths.
On top of Possums revelations of the statistics this makes a mockery of the GBNL.
http://www.nrmapicton.com.au/nrma-insurance/home-help/house-fire-information
Tony is so bent he could hide behind a corkscrew.
He has admitted on National television that he handles the truth very carelessly so;
Who do you trust?= not Tony, Australias GBNL
vivi
Yesterday it was my son’s PS3 controller!
vivi
6 months old Border Collie.
Knew it wouldn’t take long for The Oz to find something:
Gaffhook – something Labor has not pointed out constantly when Greg Hunt raves on about insulation fires is -
the number of fires under the previous scheme from 67,000 installations annually were 80-85 with approx. 8 DEATHS per year.
Why hasn’t Hunt or Abbott been asked to explain this.
Our pet rabbit used to attack us when we went outside. We had to make a run for it to get from the back door to the garage.
BH, the bigger question is why the Government have been out there explaining that. The obvious answer is that they’d rather the story move on.
vivi63 – welcome back in your new moniker – if you are unsure about joining then just contact the electorate candidate and offer to hand out on election or with prepoll booths or whatever. That way you get some idea of the people associated with the Branch before joining.
We’re all still in flux about Kev but getting on with it and the only purpose is to see that the Opposition stays right where it is – on the opposition benches.
Probably speaks volumes about their own expectations of winning at the moment. Just a few months ago the rhetoric was all about ‘bring it on’ for an election and Tony Abbott claiming the Opposition would like to have as many elections close together as possible because it would increase their chances of returning to Government.
Itep – but it hasn’t. When the story first broke the mob seemed sympathetic to the Govt. in that shonky installers were more to blame. The Opposition wasn’t having any of that and their campaign has been very effective.
The story now is that it was all money wasted and people are fearful their house will burn. Why were they not fearful when the initial scheme had 8 deaths per year? Because nobody in the press or Labor mentioned it.
Just as silence, instead of education, in the AS issue has become a problem so it has with the insulation issue. Apart from a few speeches in Parliament the only one having anything to say is Greg Hunt and he’s been potent. The impression is left of incompetency on a grand scale whereas it is actually less than before.
BushfireB was right from the start about all this.
I heard Wayne Swann on the Radio this morning, he said something along the line
Today’s budget revision shows that the government will return the budget back into surplus within 3 years, 3 years ahead of schedule and despite the general uncertainty facing the rest of the economies of the world.
The question I would like to ask is
1. If there was so much uncertainty facing the rest of the economies in the world, how could we justify a large estimated increase in prices and volume of mineral exports?
2. I guess it put paid to the lie that the mining sector was in “recession” If you look at revenue, or export, or money coming into the country, no economic competant could think the sector is in recession
http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/green-loans-an-insulation-style-mess/
Now green loans is the latest stuff up
The word recession has nothing to do with the absolute amount of revenue received. It has to do with the trend. The mining sector contracted; therefore it was in recession.
Swan
So who were those around here suggesting that the asylum seeker issue would be off the table by now? Not bloody likely!
How true!
http://resources1.news.com.au/images/2010/07/13/1225891/383761-100714-kudelka.jpg
Do you have any proof of this other than your own opinion?
Back to the “governing teh country” bit, I have grumbld about ASIC as a corporate regulator before. Here is a good article by Mike Pascoe in The Age that demonstrates why (again):
http://www.theage.com.au/business/asic-awaits-massive-failure-20100714-109s8.html
I won’t hold my breath waiting for an occaision when ASIC prosecutes someone for breaching disclosure laws BEFORE there is a financial collapse.
Yep you lefties seem to have troubles understanding what hapens at the airport.
People come here after making arrangements for a visa. If these people don’t have the appropiate visa they are SENT HOME on the NEXT FLIGHT. Our customs officials decide if we are going to invite them in, or send them on their way.
We aren’t an open door country just yet even if you latte sippers wish we were. If we had the same policy for the boaties, they’d all be on the first plane home because they broke a law by entering Australian waters without a passport or visa.
Geoff,
Kudelka seems to be suggesting that it is more expensive to clothe girls in school uniforms than boys.
This is a travesty and, if true, must be investigated immediately.
BH @ 1780
This sort of nonsense from journalists confirms all of the worst fears we have about the real focus of the members of the media – it is all about them – Boo Hoo! She won’t look at us when answering questions at a press conference!
How pathetic is this laughable claim? The rampant narcissism and self absorption of these alleged ‘professionals’ shows that they have no idea of their real function, a function that is inherent in their name – ‘media’
They are supposed to be the dispassionate link between the politicians and the public, the impartial filter that distils the essence of truth, but instead they intrude themselves into the process, rudely allowing their personal likes and desires to interfere and over-ride their ostensible reasons for being there – to report on the facts.
How juvenile is it for reporters to be whingeing that PM Gillard looks at the press conference camera at times, instead of having her gaze transfixed on the assembled media gaggle? It would be risible, if it wasn’t so tragic for our democracy.
Also a very good article from Ross Gittins, highlighting the triviality of current economic debate on Great Big New Taxes (they aren’t that big) and big debts (its tiny).
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/show-us-your-ticker-gillard-before-you-force-us-to-vote-20100713-109ch.html
The trouble is, as Gittins points out, Gillard isn’t attempting to engage in anything more substantial either. Climate change? Too hard. Tax reform? Too hard. Investing in the future or reducing growth? Too hard. So is the choice dumb government (Abbott) or evasive government (Gillard)?
The Big Ship – Democracy via murdoch journos – has a ring of tragedy doesn’t it. Their tweets are actually very revealing.
socretas;
it Is ok for commentators to say to hard etc. Now if this was 12 months ago even 6 yes, but not now the policy would be torn apart no matter what,
so really look what happened to the mining tax debate, i thought it was foolish to introduce that tax so close to an election given a different type of comments i would of thought it would be a great tax for the Australian people to want.
But no of course the interests of others come in to play it seems that every time you try something knew your dammed.
Thats why howard did nothing and just sat there for years and sent us off to wars etc,.I dont think a labor gov would of even come through that unscathed
so commentators can say what they like about things at this point in time its the election that has to be the main game.
I would have a quick short election and lots of debates
And for those still chatting about Kevin get over it, A a friend said to me yesterday
KEv got rid of himself and after all he did not contest did he.
May be just may be we saw things through rose colours classes.
Rewi
I was saying exactly that yesterday – that school uniforms are more expensive for girls – based on thirty years in teaching.
Every school I’ve been to, items of the boys’ uniform can be bought ‘off the rack’ – e.g. my sons’ school requires black trousers (the shirts and jumpers have the school logo and so must be purchased from the school) but the girls’ specifies a certain type of tartan for the skirt.
Summer uniform is worse – girls’ dresses always require a specified gingham pattern, which varies from school to school.
Again, the local example is that boys only need to buy black shorts.
It’s irritated me for years, even though I don’t have girls, and I’ve raised it with school councils when they’re considering changing their uniform, suggesting that there should at least be a unisex option.
No government’s going to interfere, though, as it’s a school council decision, made at the local level by the school community.
Be interesting, though, if some girl challenged it on discrimination grounds.
i noticed Julia did that but i thought well she is trying to get the message out to us after all we are the voters.
IF they the press told us everything we need to know then she would of course not look directly at the people
if i am watching a press conference I expect my prime minster to talk to me not them
What they dont seem to understand is their own technology once a press conference may have been just for them now with streaming which they have put there for us its for all of us who care to turn on our computers.
so there
Socrates – that is a good article by Gittins who pushed heavily for the RSPT but his comment re debt and deficit says it all really.
The problem – the voters have been scared witless by Costello and Howard about debt and now Abbott, Robb, Hockey and Joyce have relentlessly pushed the debt is bad line. Tell me which Govt., without the help of the media remaining balanced, is game enough to delay paying off debt.
I think they should take longer to get the budget into balance but not even Gittins has said that.
Didn’t Nauru successfully sue the Aussie government for environmental damage resulting in a $100 million or so payout in 2002??????
BH
As Joe Biden said once in a debate with Rudy Guilani “There’s only three things he mentions in a sentence — a noun, a verb, and 9/11. There’s nothing else! There’s nothing else! …
…the only things Greg Hunt mentions in a sentence is a noun a verb and anything the OO has written that day. Seems to be where they pick up their arguments and talking points these days.
Unlike insulation or BER, this is a veritable stuff up of major proportions.
I don’t know if it really is about that. They’d have no problem if Abbott did the same thing. It’s more about them looking for a way to neutralise one of Gillard’s strengths.
Do you think they enjoyed the feeling of power they got when Rudd was removed? They would have known that their relentless negative reporting played a large part, and they’d be pretty chuffed over the “power of the press” to make and break politicians.
It’s a dead end for them, though. It certainly does sound petty. It may be titled a ‘press’ conference, but it’s still designed for public consumption. And there’s no question of Gillard’s ability to handle the press corps.
The issue that just keeps on keeping on.
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/features/federal-election/asylum-seekers-may-be-housed-on-nauru/story-fn5a6dkp-1225891369190#ixzz0tblNqXrz
.
.
Aguirre. The press conference given by JG yesterday of course was for public consumption. Her message was to the Australian people. That is why it is very clever of her to look straight at the camera and talk directly to the Australian people. The journos are not really necessary, and deep down they know their irrelevance.
Rewi
i think its about time we started discussion social problems the msm may not want to but every blog you find you should.
Zoomster how right you are and nothing changed in all these years.
But a little aside i did find out later why my sons school pants went at the knees apparently in the school gym it was who could slide the furthest down the center with out getting to their feet. mm so if you have pants going at the knees just tell him you will patch them.
Now for example places like the daily bludge still talk about what i would call latte and green policies they are NOT bread and butter issues that mothers and dads and the elderly care to hoots about
.
You have to go to the poorer suburbs where this is not done to see the real australia.
In my line of work this is where i spent a lot of my time and beleive me they dont care about green issues and ets and the like and they certainly dont care about
the mining tax, etc but unfortunately they may care about fire in the roof
Bh is correct when she says this must be pointed out re over the years etc.
We have heating in our roof and clearly marked on the thermostats is wtte not to
penetrate nails or screws or other metal divices in to ceiling.
But then Health and education that is why Julia announced the uniform policy,
but really we do have move with the feeling of the electorate that is why they lost interest in the Global Warming issue to many conflicting stories and to many other things ones ones mind such as bread and butter issues and rushing to and fro and worring about where the next dollar is coming from to sent little citezen on an excersion or just pay the bills .
Frankly i became fed up with it day in day out kev never stopped talking about it.
In that time the plot was lost for furthering the social issues of this country,
So now its up to us no matter who we see or where we write we have to start talking social issues because that is where the libs have NO answer.
And re Abbott’s “Who do you trust” line:
That’s a measure of the extent of his political nous. It worked for Howard, and Howard couldn’t be trusted to talk straight on anything. So – goes the Abbott logic – why shouldn’t it work for Abbott?
He probably didn’t even think his way through to the end of Howard’s sentence at the time: “Who do you trust – who do you trust to keep interest rates low?” That was a real, tangible claim, because interest rates were comparatively low at the time.
The underlying message was: “No, you can’t trust me – but I’ll keep interest rates low, which is all that matters to you.” Blindingly cynical, but because it goes straight to the hip pocket nerve, spectacularly successful. Doesn’t even matter if it’s true or not. It’s an economic scare campaign, designed to capitalise on Latham’s flaky reputation and relative newness on the scene.
What’s Abbott’s equivalent? Who do you trust to…. what? Keep the boats away? He’s shown already that he can’t even be trusted to keep his story straight on that one. So what else?
I doubt he’s even thought that far ahead.
But they are the kingmakers, they decide who runs this country and the manner in which it is run.
The rest of us are just automaton’s that subconsciously do their bidding.
Hang on a second Geoff – the detention centre facilities are currently being used as a HIGH SCHOOL?
Wow. That would make great press for the former Education Minister: chucking kids out of their school so the building could be used to house asylum seekers!
Geoff recent polling shows that JG has gone a long way to neutralising the AS issue. Let’s just hear what the government has to say about the latest events before we start crowing shall we?
Jon. You are right insofar as we the people allow ourselves to be manipulated. Critical thinking is required by us all and not blindly swallow whatever is put in front of us.
I think on the other hand the above is all he has to talk about and ceiling s so the people will then get bored with that. I would say more people are talking to day about school uniforms today than ever before.
get the picture,
i think with respect a lot of people take on world issues in their minds because they are so educated they think the masses care frankly i dont think at the moment they do
Now if something happened like some amazing different type of weather they may, i thought this last year when we had different types of weather happening then people would say o its normal these things happen all the time.
O great thinks the human mind shelf that one dont have to think about that.
re global warming well thats ok i understand the big picture having been to Alaska a couple of years ago and seen a glacier slip in to the ocean.’
But gee who gets to do that all the time only a privileged few that retire with some super ( well have less now of course}
Global warming cannot be and will not be discussed before the election and nor will another tax change.
its just tooooooo much to take in.
Aguirre
The scarey thought is it may well work. The Coalition are good at selling their lies as a benefit & their failures as successes.
It is an area that where ALP need a lot of work. The insulation, BER, or for that matter the ALP’s AS policy under Rudd should never been allowed to get such negative traction.
and when you think about it the big media companies that have made it so.
re on news t.v streaming etc. we dont need to do anything more than turn on our computer and listen straight from the mouth of the pm
wish every one had the time to do that.
some very smart organization should have news videos to watch nightly
no commentary just watch and listen and decide now would that not be news heaven
Here is an article on an issue that culd bepushed to highlight the National Partie’s disingenuous ignoring of rural interests when they opposed the CPRS bill. The outbank could be used as a carbon bank to fight CC.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/14/2952894.htm
The obvious problem is, there will be no money in it for anyone unless a carbon price can be agreed and the carbon permits are tradeable. That means an ETS is needed to get this off the ground. I know that is obvious but I suspect many people without a background in this stuff won’t see the link. Wong, Garrett or Gillard should point it out.
my say
.
Big picture? So you understand that a seaward glacier in Alaska accumulates weight from snowfall at its top, gravity moves it down towards the sea where clumps crave off and fall into the sea. They’re been doing it since time immemorial.
my say. I liken journalists to real estate agents (sorry if there are any among us here). Real estate agents merely show people properties for sale; they don’t build them, decorate them or renovate them; they just walk people through and try to encourage them to buy. Commissions made don’t equate to what they actually do. Same can be said for today’s journos. They seek information and then try to sell a message! Overated on all counts!
I often hear the general wisdom that the polls can’t be right because “they’ve never been polled.” (My wife was polled – we’re in Robertson – on Sunday.) So too with “Green Loans”.
There was a lot of work, a lot of following up – and we got one: $10 000, interest free for four years, used as part payment for photo-voltaic solar system. Couldn’t be happier. So it’s not a “stuff-up” at all from my viewpoint.
Around 2.1 million children across Australia are eligible for the refund. To date, almost one million families have claimed the existing refund to support more than 1.7 million children.
Parents will be able to claim up to 50 per cent of the cost of uniforms in addition to the existing education expenses included in the scheme, currently up to $390 per child each year for primary school kids or $779 per child each year for those in secondary school.
The Government will provide this relief to family budgets while ensuring we return the budget to surplus by 2013.
The existing items parents can claim under the Education Tax refund include the cost of computers and computer equipment, textbooks and trade tools for secondary school trade courses.
To be eligible, school uniforms would need to be approved by the school but not necessarily mandatory for the child to wear.
The new eligible items would be available for expenses incurred during the 2011-12 financial year and the tax refund would be paid in the 2012-13 financial year.
as per the gov web site
say. [I liken journalists to real estate agents (sorry if there are any among us here). Real estate agents merely show people properties for sale; they don’t build them, decorate them or renovate them; they just walk people through and try to encourage them to buy. Commissions made don’t equate to what they actually do]
what a good analogy we actually when we sell plan to do it our selves.
our lawyer who is a great young man said the signs can be made no problem
any lookers or people with interest just contact him after us.
We have been through several homes recently that where doing just this the lady of the house took us through the home and the OH wrote down our names and etc and took us through the garden.
All homes have been sold i tool notice and watched the internet where they where also listed no commission only taxes etc
Today’s trivia: No federal election has ever been won by a party leader whose surname began with a vowel. (For example, “A”.)
i always enjoy reading Gittins. I like his kind of economics. I like that he questions the pathetic notions of progress for progress sake, of perpetually ongoing and increasing consumption, and the flawed methods we have used for measuring true progress. Contrast that with Janet A at the Oz with another rant about how Hayek is a god… snoooooze….
Gittins demands alot from Labor governments. He doesn’t spend much time on the Lib opposition cause he knows they are a joke. He reminds me of what we should truly want from our political leaders.
However, the standard he sets for politicians remind me of being back at Catholic school and being told sex before marriage is bad… it might be the ideal, but there is temptations of the flesh all around that are impossible to ignore. And its the same for politician. We may all want them to strive to be the “ideal” leader, however they deal daily with polls, and opinions, and the media etc…
But his article makes me realise that I am not happy with the performance of Gillard so far. She needs to slow down. Would it make me vote Lib or Green? hmmmmm… hell no. But I am yet to be impressed with Julie’s policy formulation process.
.
http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/nauru-solution-opens-up-to-pm-julia-gillard/story-e6frg12c-1225891468051
Wow if this statement is correctly reported then bottle it for the future. Is she real?
Gillard speak:
East Timor = signed and sealed
Nauru = hypothetical.
Gaffhook @ 1932
I would be more inclined to drop the ‘N’ from the description – Abbott is not ‘new’ to the art of lying, he’s always been one. How does GBL sound?
The last federal opposition leader whose surname began with a vowel was Dr H V Evatt, who lost three elections in a row.
Which isn’t quite the same as saying that no Australian prime minister’s name begins with a vowel, but that’s the case isn’t it?
Phew! Thanks, Psephos. I can now relax.
Finding your feet under the circumstances may be hard once again people try, and try to hard just be yourself would be my advice.
It is so hard this close to election to be yourself i have noted a little nervousness and who would not be
giver her go for goodness sake its only been three weeks today.
And well she surpasses abbott in every way that whats annoying about lobor voters with some any way they want perfection.
I always say well how would you have done it, give us your ideas??
Psephos – would it be a good time for Julia G to speak to the nation or does that just give airtime to Abbott as well.
my say, i’m not getting down on Julia. merely saying i’m yet to be impressed, and i think that is fair stance to take. with the libs and greens maintaining their philosophical and political viewpoints, Labor will nearly always get my vote at the federal level. so in that way I’m giving Julia plenty of time.
as for ideas, all my idea efforts are focussed on my day to day product development work… thats why i’m not in politics!
victoria @ 1974
And all opinion research shows that journalists are trusted just about as much as Real Estate Agents, and only marginally more than the lowest of the low, used car salesmen.
Doesn’t say much for their ‘profession,’ does it?
must be a man thing my oh said the same,
then i mentioned a few things that he did not know via the press
re that only 31 of the members of parliment turned out for the vote re the AS policy for timor..
O he said i never new that. So it s sad but that is exactly what the press do not put out there well not that i read any way i stand corrected if it was.
Also its what you dont have time to read just little bits here and there.
Middle man my i have have an example i am not be critical or any thing like that
just interested.
i know what you mean when i worked me to but its still nice to hear an example
The more the nation hears Abbott speak the happier I’ll be.
Psephos. Andrew Robb and Joe Hockey have popped their heads up here and there. Not so much from Tone!
It is disingenuous to think that Tony will explode in the campaign. Sure nobody likes him but he has consistently done a stellar job at keeping the spotlight on the governments weaknesses. Every night he manages to get get a concise and clear grab on the news. It has fostered significant rumblings in the public.
If the Labor government think that all they have to do is run a Tony scare campaign, they are silly. That scalpel ad is revolting. It looks like slicing people in half.
Geoff – give it a rest.
Nauru aint’ happening.
Yes, and the message he concisely and clearly conveys is that a few boats are the greatest crisis the nation faces.
They don’t need to. Abbott is a scare campaign all on his own.
blue-green. The point you make that he gets to give a “concise and clear grab on the news” is correct. But the real question is, what scrutiny has he been put under. If you recall the time he was on 7.30 report and on another occasion on melbourne radio with Neil Mitchell, he could not handle the slightest pressure being put on him. He has not been tested whatsoever to date. He buckles under the slightest pressure, and that is when he will explode.
The way Gillard has responded indicates the public also think so.
triton. Good point!
blue-green@2000. JG has responded to neutralise the issue, and on that note she has already succeeded.
He has had major set backs but everytime he picks himself back up. Remember the health debate. He bombed, the polls dived. Then two weeks later he was back in the groove.
Same with the Kerry Obrien interview. The response with the public was ‘politicians lie. So what? At least this one is honest enought to admit it.’
well my issue was the way she has formulated policy. If labor aren’t willing to accept asylum seekers into the general community while they are being processed, AND if they believe that processing “offshore” is the only way to neutralise the issue, THEN i’m happy with their regional processing approach as long as its humane, re-settlement determinations are made as quick as possible, the UNHCR are involved, and that asylum seekers aren’t stripped of access to proper rule of law and appeals processes (which is what the Libs did on Nauru).
I’d be happy with that solution, however I’m not happy that she made representations that her contact with East Timor was more than it had been. It left her open to easy attacks by the rightwing media. I want her and her team to think through issues a bit more. have them further developed. OR be very clear that its an initial idea. I think she talked her way into a place somewhere in between and it was damaging to her.
Yes she has succeeded in neutalising the debate but also made her govt look inexperienced and amateurish in the process. I agree with Peter Brent about Labor throwing away their incumbency advantage.
my say
my youngest was wearing out shoes at an incredible rate – at one stage, I bought a pair from Rivers, returned them within the week because they were falling to pieces and got another pair (which the shop assistance assured me were far more sturdy) which lasted a fortnight.
The solution – which is now in its third year – was to put him on a shoe allowance.
I told him he had a certain amount to spend on shoes each year. He could chose any shoes he wanted to but if his shoe allowance ran out, he would either have to spend his own money or wear leather shoes which I selected.
Problem solved! He choses his shoes carefully, treats them with much more respect and uncomplainingly pays for his own or makes do with the old ones if his allowance runs out.
A recent attack of poverty meant I couldn’t honour this agreement. The school offered to buy him shoes. He chose to use his own money so that he could buy what he wanted.
Well, sounds like Abbott himself, other than the bit about running his own business:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/flagship-seat-is-ours-says-tony-abbott/story-e6frgczf-1225891369353?from=public_rss
And for those PBludgers hanging out for it, the Baltic Dry was down again last night, -2.7% to 1790, which, to continue the nautical theme, was the year the Second Fleet arrived at Sydney Cove
middleman – I listened to the Lowey Speech and came away with the impression that East Timor was a POSSIBILITY. Julia said ‘ I’ve been speaking with JHR about the possibility of …..”.
I watched SkyNews immediately after and they were already saying it was a definite.
Julia’s problem was that she allowed that to go for a day or so instead of immediately saying to the media ‘you are not reporting what I said’. I think she’s learned her lesson. They are not going to give her any quarter – unlike Tony Abbott who gets four of them.
agree very much yes i think if i was her i would and then i am getting back to kev
so may not work but i would be inclined to take my own counsel and follow
my intuition , but have look at all the scenarios that may happen re the press cover every angle
in fact i would of waited till it was signed and sealed.
I think from now on this may happen. .
may be she has leaned from this and will in future think things through.
But on the other hand abbott makes all these statement like’ turn back the boats’
and does not think it through and no one says anything.
that is the great puzzle
Thats why i think its best to move on to social issues where the liberals have none
because they dont when you really think about it well someone may tell me one but i havent heard of one.
All we need is for one headline on the front page of a paper ‘and how would you do that Mr. Abbott,’
but no it will not happen,
I dont agree that the media havent given Tony a hard time. They p_ssed all over his silly carbon plan. Likewise for his maternity leave scheme. The gave him a hard time over the health debate and kerry obiren gaffe. The reported his virgin and ironing comment verbatim. Likewise with ‘climate change is crap’ and ‘it was warmer in jesuses day’. Its just the public arent swayed by these things.
Of course the media is going to give the govt a harder time. They are the one that is supposedly governing.
Does anyone know what time is Swannie speaking today?
BH 2PM
what a wonderful example you are zoomster and a great mum sounds like your young man has a great future to me.
thats why social issues are so important
No Liberal leader from NSW has ever defeated a Labor leader from Victoria. (Just thought I’d throw that in.)
Thanks bg.
Great idea Zoomster. Wish I’d been as wise as you. The boys went through shoes almost as fast as they did food.
A clothing idea is a better idea than a baby bonus to me.
Psephos, I like your growing list of reasons why Tony can’t win. It assures me that Labor don’t need to worry or have a sound strategy for the election.
BH,
Baby bonus is much better than a clothing allowance. A new baby, especially the first requires a mass of upfront expenses.
I’m glad you’re assured. Has anyone told you that you have a face like a donkey?
blue-green. agreed babies do require upfront expenses, but as they grow it actually never gets cheaper. In fact, it gets very expensive, especially the teenage years.
BRUCE BILLSON!!!!!!!!!!!
I am seriously now time for a Victorian Lib Leader!
We havent had one since Peacock!
BH – JG’s uniform policy is clever(read cynical) politics. All parents understand uniform issues but the policy is aimed squarely at the private/independent school vote where appearances are valued over substance, e.g. ‘must be a good school, look at how well they are dressed’. My time teaching at the Kings School taught me that values and appearance were not synonymous.
Aspirational parents will like the tax break, and while JG says that this will make uniforms available to all students and prevent competition amongst students to wear the ‘right’ clothes as an alternative to uniforms, it is policy primarily aimed at retaining the voters who ditched Howard.
You are in for a very rude shock if you think that the cost of children will decrease as they get older.
blue_green @ 2010
What utter nonsense! In case you hadn’t noticed, a Federal Election in imminent, and the Abbott Opposition is the alternative Government.
Why on earth would it be acceptable for the media, or anyone in the public sphere to give the Government a ‘harder time’ than the Opposition, unless you, yourself were actually pleased that the Opposition were getting a relatively free ride?
Your contention is preposterous, and anti-democratic – give yourself an uppercut ….
Laocoon *muses to himself* same time as GP was at Kings?
The Big Ship@2023. Here Here!
Under the blowtorch of an election campaign he just won’t have the luxury of two weeks to lay low and let it all blow over, it will be relentless. He will be afforded many more opportunities it stuff it up, and his penchance for circular sloganeering and on the fly thought bubbles will work against him. The goal of Labor is to focus the reticule, paint a stark difference with some positive policy, and remorselessly hammer away at Abbott’s many weaknesses.
Jon. You are correct. Imagine Abbott repeating “great big new tax”, “we will turn the boats back” over and over again!
bg – yep, but we oldies managed without except for a handout of about $50 I think which bought a pram or cot in those days. There was also no problem with cots, cradles, prams, clothes etc. being shared around between friends and family members.
In our materialistic world now we don’t often make do with secondhand stuff bu looking at it in another way – purchasing new stuff keeps people in a job.
Parents need more help as the kids get older – the little devils have a way of becoming enormously expensive. Worth every bit of it tho.
I think we would all be foolish to believe that Tony will put off the masses. They are a real chance. As horrible as that thought is, it is true.
MM it wouldnt take much (like a Medicare Gold moment) to really turn it into a battle.
People have been sold on the idea of efficiency for efficiency’s sake… and this govt has shown itself to be quite inefficient at times, even though its goals were admirable (in my opinion at least).
exactly Glen. i think Labor supporters and Labor itself need to be careful in the lead up to this election. and that doesn’t mean being a small target. as always it means having well thought out policy that is costed and can be implemented.
Especially when there is so little money that can be used up on policies for this poll which means there will be fewer election policies so both sides have to be careful as the spotlight will be on them.
Somehow “careful” and Tony Abbott don’t sit well togther as concepts. He’s always been a risk-taker.
“but, but, but, but…look, look Kerry”
That latest media beatup -
Andrew Thompson (?) ABC journo from Brissie rang Nauru to ask President if he would accept AS. President says he would .
ABC Breakfast, RN, SkyNews and probably everywhere else runs story that Nauru is willing and able. Now SkyNews reporting that Nauru has facility already paid for with no funds needed to build elsewhere but if Gillard backs down and says OK to Nauru it will be seen as a backflip.
And they wonder why most of us see them as barrel scrapers or worse.
i just cant get my imagination to picture him standing before Brycie being sworn in.
If Rudd had never mentioned the mining tax he would have been home and hosed.
If Gillard keeps making policy on the run, she’ll be in trouble too.
People want stability and certainty. Gillard should forget about trying to patch up past policies and just seek a mandate ASAP.
Well, if the coalition do win this election I hope Labor do to them what they’ve spent the last 3 years doing to us: block everything, constantly say NO, and force them to deal with the Greens (who hopefully will have the senate BoP).
I note on the front page of ‘The Australian’ today two articles that are priming the news cycle for a new front to be opened up:
(1) Asylum-seeker linked to al-Qa’ida
(2) Half of arrivals have Tiger links
And add in for good measure:
(3) French bill to ban burka passes vote
This is all tilling the ground for Abbott and co to ramp up their fear mongering and bigotry quotient by kicking the ‘Terrorist’ can. It is only a matter of time before one of these cynical opportunists makes the claim that we are being over-run by crypto terrorists in their leaky boats.
Beyond that they will no doubt move on to potential mad bombers in sleeper cells within the Muslim community, Haneef-style lunacy, then we reach the last refuge of the Opposition scoundrel, the hidden agenda of the Gillard Republic and our flag under threat.
As predictable as night following day, in my view, the only question remaining is when will they dust off these Howard era favourites?
Which will then result in a declartion of Martial Law and the suspension of the writ of Habeas corpus
I’ve got by raising mine from babyhood to adolescence very cheaply, but it’s relied on clothing them in hand me downs or op shop clothes.
I left my babies until the last in the family and got more than enough nappies, baby clothes and other equipment handed down to me to get us through!
Teenage years are the worst – not only a lot more activities, but they’re more clothes conscious and (in the later years of secondary college) it’s harder to get second hand textbooks (and they’re more expensive for VCE subjects to start with).
On the other hand, both of them are earning a bit of money (even the 13 yo) of their own, which helps (as indicated above, they can wear what I can afford or they can chip in to buy what they want).
Expect Bernardi and Jensen to be out on it pretty quickly. Bernardi is probably already sending out emails to everyone.
Actually the Libs were pretty clever. They sent surveys to everyone asking for ideas and for an email address. They now have ready made facility for their scaremongering.
Which is why of course a Gillard “tack to the left” on boaties, which is what 80% of people here want, would have been political poison as well as wrong in principle.
Adam
“Which is why of course a Gillard “tack to the left” on boaties, which is what 80% of people here want, would have been political poison as well as wrong in principle.”
not agree with this definition “a Gillard “tack to the left” on boaties”, dont damn let regressive progresives wrongly define what reel “left” means
she has tacked to ‘left’
she has not tacked to politcal correct radical left socialist Greens position of onshore process of ilegal entrants giving them full welfair & living in community whilst still being checked for security & refugee status
A-S ‘left” means being more worried about boat people drowning gitting here (that Greens dont worry about) ,
and ‘left’ means treating boat peoples humane whilst they cheked out (unlike Howard)
and ‘left’ means process under UN Conventon (unlike Howard , and under UNHCR control (unlike Howard) and then a welcome to oz as a person checked and actualy found to be a refugee ( and not a TVP like Howard)
BH @ 2043
I thought Scott Morrison would be the most likely first doomsayer cab off the rank, but they may get a backbench hatchetman, or known loony like Tuckey to do their dirty work, then they can ostensibly disown the comment, whilst dog whistling to beat the band.
Of course, such a matchup only happened once, in 1987. Of course, there’s been plenty of media buzz comparing Gillard to Hawke, and the Howard/Abbott similarities are obvious to anyone.
Ron is of course quite right.
Hmm. Both moved to Melbourne for career reasons after growing up further west (Hawke in WA, Gillard in SA). Both secularised but with strong Protestant background (Hawke’s father a minister, Gillard’s a Welsh Baptist). Both from strong Labor background (Hawke’s uncle Premier of WA). Both flirted with left before moving right (Hawke elected ACTU President with left backing, Gillard preselected as left candidate). Both have strong Australian accents. Neither has ever said “programmatic specificity.”
Why not?
BH.@2036. If the government are able to get an agreement in principle with East Timor. It would shut down this silly debate about Nauru.
So Gillard copying Howard’s policy on Asylum seeker is a lurch to the Left ahahahhahahahhahahhahahaha
w-Ron-g is per normal w-Ron-g
Today’s news about Nauru merely shows that our neighbours in the Pacific are not wanting for political talent. It may also show that they know how to repay a political favour.
Yeah, because as we all know al-Qaida terrorists love long-distance sea voyages in leaky overcrowded boats, and would never think of flying.
Is Nauru Downer’s handiwork? Cyprus solved is it?
Kakuru.@2053. The OO don’t let facts get in the way of a good scaremongering campaign with an agenda.
Yes Laocoon, the Greeks and Turks are dancing in the streets of Nicosia. All thanks to Downer.
BigShip – Morrison has had to answer a few questions this week so the hatchetmen will be the go I reckon. They won’t be able to resist. I had expected a ‘burka’ comment by now so they’re running a bit late with that one.
Bob Brown has just said he’s very happy to work with Prime Minister Abbott – doesn’t matter that he has policies that BB sees as inhumane because he found Tone to be friendly and genial when they had a meeting together.
There was no mention of company tax being 33% but he does want Labor to return to 28% for small business.
BB looks very happy now that Dick Smith is bankrolling him. He’s also got GetUp in his corner and its helping out with ads against the majors.
Laocoon@2054. You could be right. The Liberals who are beraft of policies are trying to milk this AS issue for all it is worth. I hope the ALP are playing chess on this issue and have the Libs checkmated. One can only hope.
Victoria, what facts are in your possession which prove the story in The Australian wrong? I think we’ve learned over the last month that despite its obvious agenda The Australian is sometimes right.
Victoria @2055
I’m not too scared. But the people who fund terrorism might be nervous at the prospect of terrorists commuting across the Indian Ocean in boats that are barely seaworthy. All that financial investment could sink without a trace…
And don’t get me started on the corrosive effects of seawater on suicide vests. I mean, do the terrorists have to wear them the entire time on the voyage?
Psephos. What has the OO been right during the past month?
Laocoon 2007
I note your coments on the continuing fall in the Baltic Dry index. It seems at odds of forward data coming out of the US recently (reported profits, hiring, investment). Is there an argument that the Baltic Dry better reflects happenings in Europe than USA? The USA does not seem headed for a double-dip recession; Europe is probably already in one.
Also, noting the updates to budget estimates, the growth rate has been reduced slightly, yet the surplus has still risen. So there was fat in the original budget numbers. I.e. Treasury were being their usual cautious selves. Will somebody please now say that calling Treasury forecasts “over-optimisitic” was a Great Big New Lie.
Psephos @ 2059
This reminds me of a line from movie critic Roger Ebert. No matter how bad a movie might be, the laws of chance suggest that something should go right.
Um, about the fall of Kevin Rudd – weren’t you paying attention?
So, again: what facts do you have which prove the story about the al-Qaeda guy in The Australian to be wrong?
http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2010/07/11/how_facts_backfire/
How depressment…
It does explain a lot though.
Psephos. Obviously, they were right about Rudd because they were getting inside information, but their agenda about discrediting Rudd had been in play quite a while. The Australian has been a disgrace over the past few months, especially in relation the beat up on the Chief Commissioner of Victoria. The Chief had been critical of the paper when they had printed story of terrorist plot on the same morning as polices raids were actually under way. Since that time they have had an agenda to discredit him at all costs. It is difficult under any circumstances to respect this publication.
Bit like the OO campaign against Simon Overland PC – baseless and fabricated. The OO should change its name to the “stopped clock”. on rudd vs gilliard the day before they were saying there was no challenge. OO= nil credibility.
Talk about a lying govt.
Treasury figures just out show a $6Bn hit from changing mining tax in 2013-14.
http://www.budget.gov.au/2010-11/content/economic_statement/html/economic_statement-07.htm
the spectator. We are obviously on the same page!
But an extra 400k for a new passionfruit marketing levy is great
Are you saying that this is news? I was aware of this almost 2 weeks ago. Where have you been?
Bernard Keane has also seen the mining rip off in new budget fugures.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/thestump/2010/07/14/new-forecasts-domestic-growth-down-but-the-foreigners-love-our-dirt/
How can tax the miners be a rip off? A rip off is when the Liberals say that miners are paying the right amount of tax already.
In my view it’s been a disgrace for a lot longer than that. The problem is that the good reporting it does occasionally do is completely overshadowed by its own partisan agenda pushing. Unprofessional behaviour by its columnists (think Caroline Overington during the last election campaign), and its complete editorial cluelessness on climate change just adds to the paper’s debasement as far as I’m concerned. I think people are right to be sceptical about any claims being made by the Oz.
Maybe, but what is your view on the passionfruit levy?
I hope Tony doesnt call it a Great Big New Tax on Passionfruit.
Its sure to cost seats with them being so tasty at the moment.
Socrates
There is an article in the AFR today (in the middle bit) which discusses the BDI and points to supply considerations (of more ships) on charter rates (which the BDI comprises). I dont follow that so much (I think TP or briefly has a better feel for this).
BDI movements have tended to be dominated by Chinese demand for commodities of late (especially coal and iron ore). I was chatting with someone in the US a few weeks back, who is continuing to see strong TEU (container) traffic. Bulk commodites, however, are more of a lead indicator than finished goods (which go by container).
I dont think the US employment hiring has been that strong (esepcially ex-census), and employment tends to be a lagging than a leading indicator. US corporate profits have surprised me to the upside for more than a year now; I find the resilience of US corporates and their speed of adjustment sources of continual adjustment (and a long term caveat against writing off the US economy). Intel, apparently, came out with strong earnings numbers last night both in margins and volumes (though I havent read anything in great detail).
The night before last, Alcoa came out with results that were ostensibly bullish, but this analysis debunks some of this, pointing particularly to the discrepancy between bullish commentary and bearish capital expenditure numbers (follow the money; watch the walk not the talk)
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/digging-behind-alcoas-optimism-company-posts-second-lowest-quarterly-capex-spend-years
So, to respond, I still suspect China economic activity is slowing (see their real estate market); this is having an impact on commodity demand, especially when coupled with some inventory drawdown, hence weaker BDI. And I think the optimism of the US economy is still too high for the 2H (especially as weaker state/municipal revenues take hold – analagous to EU fiscal tightening)
Domestically, havent seen the budget numbers, but one of the positive surprises here has been employment. This would have a reasonable impact on the federal government budget position (more PAYG tax; less welfare)
OMG. Is Swannie on steroid? He looks and sounds so confident in his Presser now.
The Fins
What station is Swan on?
I couldn’t give a flying fruit bat about the passionfruit levy. I reckon you don’t either.
Maybe Tony will make it a temporary passionfruit levy and only put in the the top 50 passionfuit companies with sales of over 10,000 passionfruits per year.
I hope that the poor and meek will get compensated for this rise in fruit prices. Where is Natasha Stott Despoja when you need her?
So, Victoria, you acknowledge that you have no facts about what has happened in Indonesia. The story directly quotes named senior Indonesian officials about the case. Your contention is that The Australian has invented the story and fabricated these quotes. Do you not think this is a rather risky thing to do? If the story is false it wouldn’t be hard to establish that fact. Do you not suppose that General Nasution might notice false quotes being attributed to him in a national Australian newspaper?
only streaming on abc
Finally found the info on the levy. They tried to hide it from us.
it would be good if we could see who asks the questions.
Now will mr. swan get him self in to trouble for not looking at jounalists
is this a news conference or a press club
is there a topic or a new policy today just got home
Psephos,
I think General Nauseation is a feeling I often get on this site. I didnt know it was a Indonesian Military Commander as well.
sound sso relaxed and confident may be new boss on the scene
blue_green
Don’t give up your day job
Psephos
A bogus email comes to mind!
can someone tell me what the journalist is yelling about
whats his problem
look at me swannie, look at me.
He’s upset he’ll have to pay more for his passionfruit.
Psephos. I am not suggesting the OO is inventing the story. My point is that the timing of the story fits into the narrative of the AS issue and border protection, and that it is the OO’s agenda to scaremonger.
will explain what the swan conference is about and what is the problem re the jounos
is this a plus or minus they are talking about.
Damn right Itep. (also Tom Hawkins)
In the OO today:
“The revelation follows information from the head of Indonesia’s international crimes unit, Saud Usman Nasution, that Australian Federal Police were helping the Indonesians to compile a database to cross-check asylum-seeker and terrorist connections.”
So, the OO is actually reporting that regional cooperation on AS is working in the context of Border Security. The AFP are out there doing thier job with the Indonesians.
Good on them.
Who missed this bit?
Some folk should learn to read.
Victoria, you said:
This is clearly an assertion that there are “facts” which contradict The Australian’s report that an al-Qaeda operative has been found among intending boat departures for Australia. When challenged, you have failed to produce these facts, and now you deny that you ever said there were any. So, if you now concede that The Australian’s story is correct, you must also concede that it is not “scaremongering” to suggest that al-Qaeda might use the boat arrival route to bring agents to Australia, since one such has in fact been discovered. Is that not the case?
Sorry Dee, Swannie is on Slynews
@runwake/2098, like everything they seem to just read the initial headline stuff.
and on the net
The Finnigans
It’s OK. I got it streaming but no visual. By the sounds of things he was on fire.
why do they bother some one asking if mr swan will be treasure after the election.
what was it about
my say
They are trying to keep the focus & seeds of doubt on the ALP.
BH,
hang on wait a couple of years you will seemmm
i would love to be a fly on the wall before these press conferences do their bosses tell them what to ask may they get brownie points for the questions ask.
or do they think them up on the spot.
serious question any one know the working of a news paper.
when we can live stream and hear what we want who want a newpaper anyway
one you had to wait for them to tell you now you dont.
Another potential explanation for all the ministers’ revitalisation is that they, every one of them, absoutely owns the decision to get rid of Rudd; no-one else. They are committed. They will pull out all stops to succeed. They have no-one else to blame for failure.
Interesting exercise in Group dynamics.
Baby years are much shorter than Kid years, Especially through Primary and High School.
Swan was impressive. The Gallery showed how superficial their grasp of economic issues. Mark Riley showed his contempt for fact. Grattan was more interested in polls. This mob of hacks in Canberra are real second graders,non-entities – no sense of history, no sense of perspective. Just go for the cheap shot and get a cheap headline. The sooner Julia pulls the trigger on this phony war the better – and governing can become the priority for the first time in months.
What i find odd is that they Fiberals have Robb out there claiming that the Govts budget projections are a sham??
Yup, there are lots of things that can happen over the forward estimates period and it makes snese that those estimates are revised from time to time, but do they seriously expect people to believe that Robb and Hockey have a better handle on the countries finances than Treasury?
Its like they are extending their “Who do you Trust, them or us” line to include Treasury as well as the Govt? Since Treasury will be making the forward estimates regardless of who forms the Govt that seems a bit non-sensical to me.
I’d really worry if i thought that this lot had any chance of winning an election this year. They are just SOOOOOOO, incompetant, and seems to takea wierd pride in demosntrating it time and time again. Just have to place my faith in the hope that the majority of Australians arent stupid enough to give the Libs another shot at governing until they lift their game from its current abysal depths.
She’s the lunchtime speaker at the Press Club tomorrow. That’s going to be very interesting. I’m not suggesting she’ll reveal the election date during that speech but straight after she’s might get her driver to head to the GGs home for an after dinner mint.
alpalster – I wish I could have put it in those words. Listening to their questions was like listening to a bunch who were not hearing anything. How Swannie kept his cool is beyond me.
Grattan is reduced to asking inane questions about polling and so her column tomorrow will be the Lib talking points again. Laura Tingle and Lenore Taylor about the only intelligent ones in the room but they will probably also find the negatives first.
The general view is that she has to do a climate statement before the dissolution. According to the ABC this morning, she won’t be doing that tomorrow. But I don’t see how the ABC can really know.
2085
Blue-groin
Someone has to pay for Turnbulls rainmaker to make rain to irrigate the passionfruit.
the minig tax was a win why is their ABC playing it as tho it is aloss
bob brown next
ARGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG
I cant listen anymore
Gusface. It would have been a win if Libs managed not to impose a tax at all. Go figure?
I think Gillard’s staff put out a media alert saying this?
Why couldnt Julia G simply get on her mobile and call the GG? :
JG: Hi, look is it cool with you if we have the election August **?
GG: No worries.
JG: Ok, if were agreed on that i”ll announce that date in the next couple of days, we’ll do the paperwork and crack a bottle of your duty free when you get back from your trip. Writs can be issued a few days later to give the younguns a chance to get of their bums and enrol.
GG: Sounds all fine and proper to me. Have fun playing with the press.
JG: Thanks mate!
Came through loud and clear on radio. Sometimes I wonder how ministers can keep their cool.
Hey Psephos, don’t you have any work to do the Senator’s office?
Or perhaps this is your work.
Gusface, why was the mininh tax a win? Remind me of how much revenue we lost because the government caved into the miners. And don’t say $1.5 billion. But at least we can afford a bit more middle class welfare, not to mention the non pacific non solution.
Really this is amateur hour, but you guys and gals continue to put the best spin on it all that you can. Wonder what you’ll be saying when/if that loony Abbott gets in.
If that nightmare eventuates a few people will have a bit of explaining to do.
Psephos @ 2066
Oh, come on. They were right up until a few days before it happened, when they suddenly started saying it wasn’t going to happen and Rudd was safe.
Bit hard to be wrong when you take both sides of the issue.
I hope that the treasurer runs everything past Bob Brown before making any future announcements as Browns ecconomic expertise is obviously now much valued by the inept Labor Govt. At the press club he was full of praise for the stimulus package and has now claimed partial credit for it, renaming it the Rudd,Swan,Brown Stimulus Package. I couldnt watch the knob any longer after that.
How much revenue would the Govt. have lost if there was no mining tax? (The Abbott option).
Adrian
Ummmm
there wasnt one before?
the gvt negotiated a solution withe miners?
need i go on
or are you getting all crocdilean about spilt milk
imacca – you norty boy. You were listening in!
bob brown
the grandee of aussie politics
Hmmm
Turnbull going off on how much Labor has given up to the miners.
“Great Not Big Enough New Tax” perhaps.
The reduction in tax projected to come off forward estimates from the Julia Gillard back down, two months after they were originally announced, is $7.5 B, not $6 B. It’s $6 B more than the $1.5 B originally inferred when the back down was announced.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/14/2953354.htm
Now only 10 weeks after the May budget Swan has announced that projected revenues over the forward estimates have been revised, substantially upwards. This is like “fairy tales made in heaven” stuff I read to my grandchildren.
Gusface, your ‘argument’ is that it’s better than nothing, but the real question is
‘Is it a fair return for the country under the circumstances?’ and my answer to that would be no.
Of course it is better than nothing, just as if you are being ripped off by your employer, and he gives you an extra $5 a week, you are, I suppose expected to say thank you sir, even if it’s below what equivalent workers are getting.
In this context, negotiation is a code word for bending over and saying thank you boss for shafting me yet again.
Geoff
Have you read the new estimates? Try the Treasury website.
BK
Does that mean the Fibs are in favour of RAISING TAXATION
I told you he proposed a GST of between 15-20%
Who can you trust?
adrian. What do you suggest should have been done with regards to mining tax?
adrian
We got a deal on miners paying more tax. Better than before but not as great as we all would have liked but that is what happens with negotiations.
You win some & you lose a little. It’s called compromise. Father Bob sees the loss of higher tax return as a loss. Gosh! We were getting nothing before and he is weeping over something we never had. Can’t imagine how he will react if the Rabbott wins the election. It will be gone in one foul swoop.
paulofkotara – yep, I loved that bit. He conveniently forgot that he needed Xenophon and Fielding to vote for it as well but he gave them no credit at all.
But when it came to CC he panned the Govt. for not negotiating with him, completely forgetting that Xenophon and Fielding hated the Greens plan anyway and wouldn’t have voted for it.
I love his ability to see things only through his eyes!!
Geoff. It would appear that you are suggesting that if Treasury estimates are put out by the Libs they can be truthful, but from the ALP they are a fairytale. Why?
Adrian, I don’t know about you, but I can do at least three things at once and usually do.
via Peter Martin.
Dee
A perfect opportunity for Bob to spruik Greens policy of increasing company tax rate to 33%. But for some reason he never mentions this…..
ruawake
Yes it says -$ 1B + -$ 6.5B = -$7.5B
Appendix B: Policy decisions taken since the 2010?11 Budget
Read the improved resource taxation arrangements segment.
http://www.budget.gov.au/2010-11/content/economic_statement/html/economic_statement-07.htm
The MSM are going to being flowing with spilt milk it seems
Sad Sad Sad
Geoff
Are you another person who is unable to read?
Psephos@2138
Yeah you can, and do – all on behalf of the right faction. At present these assignments are:
1. spin the demise of Rudd to make it look less ruthless and to make him look bad cf Gillard;
2. spin the AS issue to demonise refugees to make Gillard’s continuation of human rights abuses seem less objectionable.
3. spin the ETS to the right, to make its continued trashing look less weak.
victoria, I would suggest that the government should have held firm, negotiated at the margins, and campaigned heavily on the benefits, fairness and who runs this country issues, if the miners’ failed to co-operate. My feeling was that if the government held firm they could have prevailed.
It’s just that they got scared, just as they are now scared of everything, and they didn’t trust the electorate sufficiently to consider the idea that they could understand slightly complex issues even if they were sold well.
Current ALP thinking holds the electorate in contempt – the conservative side of the electorate are viewed as idiots who will accept the most blatant dog-whistling, pork- barrelling and lies; while the progressives can just be ignored because they’ll vote for us no matter what we do, and however far to the right we take the party.
I suppose time will tell if this thinking delivers them an election result.
Joint venture
Why so sad still?
victoria
Nothing of the sort. What I would ask people to question is what has happened since the budget, which in the scheme of things re. estimates was very recent, to justify projecting a substantial increase in revenues in forward estimates out to 2013/14? IMO there have been more negatives (Europe and China) than postives. I do think however that we probably now have a disfunctional relationship between Treasury and Government.
Psephos, thanks for not denying that it’s part of your job to spruik for the right faction as jv outlined @ 2144.
Andrew Robb, Opposition Finance spokesperson, is a solid gold arseclown.
In his feeble response to Treasurer Wayne Swan’s budgetary update, this economic illiterate claims that the Treasury estimates are ‘heroic assumptions,’ that the projected revenues are ‘a sham’ and that voters ‘cannot believe Wayne Swan,’ and all of this windy Robb rhetoric is spewed into the public domain without a shred of alternate analysis, or economic backup, as if his mere words are sufficient to outweigh the modelling done by the economic experts in Treasury, those professional bureaucrats charged with this responsibility and paid to provide this informed advice to Government.
The breathtaking inanity and utter hubris of this statement beggars belief – are we to infer that Andrew Robb, by fiat, is to be trusted to provide a more informed budgetary analysis in a few minutes than the Treasury can deliver after exhaustive preparation and immersion in the minutia of the budgetary process?
Do the Opposition seriously expect reasonable people to believe Robb’s outrageous counter claims presented without supporting analysis in preference to the opinions of the economic experts with the duly constituted statutory authority and responsibility?
This is your alternative Government.
God (or Hitchens) save our democracy from a fate worse than PM Abbott …. or is there such a fate?
Its not a substantial increase, its a very modest increase given the size of the Budget.
JV, your assessment of my rotational skills is indeed flattering.
Adrian – the govt got a deal on the mining tax and will raise increased revenue that was previously not being raised. Under the liberals guess what you get = nil, nothing, sweet fa. In the future this tax will change guaranteed – a few tweaks here and there to fund higher costs of health care and the ageing population. crying over lost revenue is pointless. the miners are signed up it is now easier to amend it – it will happen. either that or increased GST.
Geoff @ 2130
Perhaps you would care to enlighten us as to your economic credentials that would lead any of us to accept your shallow judgements before those of the experts in Treasury who do this for a living?
Psephos@2151
I didn’t say it was effective.
As I understand it, the Libs will NEVER have a mining tax – so their income from this position is that their revenue from the mining industries is the same as it is now whatever that might be – so lets call this mining revenue N (for now)
The government has introduced this GBNT which will bring the government an extra revenue – so lets call this E. So the Government’s mining revenue is N+E.
So N+E will always be greater than N. This reform is long lasting. The E bit will always be rolling in.
Logic tells me that the Libs should support this but then again …….
adrian@2145. The Government could have held firm, but they had the Mining giants and the MSM against them, I can see why they chickened out.
Great remark, Big Ship!
ruawake
Eh, I beg your pardon.
The rose coloured, fairy tale like, increases in forward estimates are independent of the direct effect, in dollars, of the backdown. If there was no backdown the increase in revenues would have been $7.5B + $2B + $4B = $13.5B less the changes they made to company tax and small business.
so the Liberals point now is that the GBNT on Mining is not raising enough revenue and is not big enough. I guess Labor have neutralised the GBNT argument then.
What has the overseas reaction been to the new mining tax?
The revised budget figures have given Tone a couple of billion to spend on Govt. programs. So what does he do?
Say its all got to go to paying off debt – well that really is fairy tale stuff. I bet he discontinues this bit.
A burning desire to emulate it as soon as possible.
Prime Minister Kevin Andrews?
“What has the overseas reaction been to the new mining tax?”
Well, the Chinese are impressed enough with the concept to do something similar, but i believe geographically limited within a particular province. IMF were also impressed which is what i think REALLY worried the miners.
“Prime Minister Kevin Andrews?”
I call for Glen to be immediatley banned for gratuitous and frightening obscenity.
Glen – NO – pleeeeeeeease!
The Big Ship
An astonishing result from qualitative poll questions is the lead the coalition has in perceived economic management ability:-(
Glen has finally stepped over the line. Andrews!!!!
This is part of a comment under Turnbull’s piece in the SMH today where lots of comments are not favourable to Mr Turnbull -
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/swan-must-tell-us-what-he-gave-back-to-miners-20100713-109cj.html?comments=67#comments
Geoff
Has anyone said otherwise? Swan said at the time the figure was based on increased commodity prices. The revised budget papers compare apples with apples as they should, but they note the increase in commodity prices.
I dont know, for the Andrews thought to even occur to Glen, much less be expressed…….
What a dark and fetid place his headspace must be…….
glen @ 2163
Debatable, but we still need to remain within the bounds of the remotely plausible …. and with those who aren’t amongst the ‘undead.’
Prime Minister Simon Crean
Prime Minister Mark Latham
Prime Minister Brendan Nelson
Prime Minister Alexander Downer
Glen @ 2173
To even see these words in writing makes my blood run cold ….
Can you imagine QT with the toff accent every single day for 5-10mins at a time
lol!
imacca
India were impressed with the original and cited that they didn’t have the unfortunate position of the Aussie government of needing to pass legislation through a senate. China had set theirs as a trial at 5% plus an environmental levy.
IMF &UN were working toward a uniform resource tax across the African nations.
I haven’t heard any recent commentary on the new mining tax.
Julie Bishop’s spitefulness on show today in the SMH
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/blogs/the-bishops-gambit/julia-in-blunderland/20100714-109q4.html?posted=sucessful#makeComment
Some sanity on the subject.
By the way where is Hockey? Is Robb the new shadowy Treasurer?
Norway was shocked and appalled – that the Australian mining tax didn’t go further.
In Norway, oil firms pay corporation tax at 28%, plus an extra tax of 50% on oil profits – so the total tax on oil profits is 78%.
Of course, this has led to the complete ruination of the Norwegian economy. People who claim that Norwegians enjoy one of the highest standards in the world are just raving pinko commies.
“Prime Minister Alexander Downer”
“Begone, foul dwimmerlaik, lord of carrion! Leave the dead in peace!”
Glen you are in ripper (if scary) form today – I unreservedly withdraw my unjust imputations from some years ago that the entity known as Glen might be a silicon rather than carbon based intelligence …
I suspect that the Libs use Robb to go on the attack. Actual economic policy is relatively bipartisan in effect (obviously not in rhetoric). This doesn’t leave much space for argument. So you trot out a spokesman to spout some absurd dross, without damaging the economic credentials of your shadow treasurer. Makes sense to me.
I went to Oslo in 2003…hmm like Canbera with a price tag $50 for a pizza and we would have to sell something to buy a beer. The people are extremely good looking though.
imacca @ 2180
How about “The devil damn thee black, thou cream-faced loon! Where got’st thou that goose look?
Surely after Mesma’s knowing “We do it too” episode on the passports matter, she is the LAST one able to be taken seriously on anything to do with international affairs??
Shows up Abboots weakness and incompetance in this area that she wasnt sacked from her portfolio at the time. That said ne does have a VERY shallow gene pool to draw “talent” from.
Psephos, read the caption very carefully, then the full article. It is easy to interpret that the AS is the senior l-Qa’ida figure but the allegation is that someone in the group of 11 AS this person was assosiated with had been in mobile phone contact with unnamed senior al-Qa’ida figures.
It is also of note that the person mentioned has not been actually arrested for terrorism offences according to the article but is actually being held for immigration offences.
The article is alarmist and misleading and as such Victoria is correct, the reality is that the *facts* in possession of the OO are few and far between and they have not let this get in the way of a “good scaremongering campaign”
Downer would be the perfect face for those things you punch and come back up again. They would sell millions!!! Hmmm… a business idea
The Viking spirit is alive and well. Except they don’t need to leave their country anymore to plunder and pillage – the victims come to them.
Jon @ 2186
Correct weight!
Goodness, every single comment on Bishop’s article is negative, and half of them add insult to injury by calling her Julia instead of Julie. It illustrates how media outlets choose their own readerships. Imagine the comments section if the article had been in The Telegraph or The Australian.
““The devil damn thee black, thou cream-faced loon! Where got’st thou that goose look?”
Now that one i’d instincicly associate with Mesma. Geese can be pretty scary!
MM I guess it’s probably the result of the kool-aid not being delivered and consumed at my place since 2007.
Disillusionment in politics is both an awfully bitter experience yet on the other hand is extremely refreshing.
Still I live in hope.
So more taxes means better looking people hmmm so I guess it does have it’s fringe benefits eh Centaur009?
no I think it’s in the genes Glen
for those worried about the estimates of Treasury:
“Many senior economists say today’s budget forecast revisions should not be taken too seriously, as they are just “the best guesses” of the future.
A senior economist with RBC Capital Markets, Su-Lin Ong, says Treasury still appears to be erring on the side of caution in its growth forecasts.
“The macro forecasts appear reasonable although we would argue that they probably remain slightly conservative,” she wrote in an analysis of the Treasurer’s statement.”
from ABC website: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/14/2953554.htm?section=justin
From the comments on that Bishop article its good to see that there are still a few people around who remember what a complete twit Julie Bishop has made of herself over the last couple of years.
Wonder what the makeup of the next Liberal shadow ministry is going to look like an whether Bishop will keep her spot as deputy dawg.
Heartening to see Ross Gittens using my terminology of the other day as to Gillard’s policy ‘vacuum’:
Where is the action? Even the power industry is calling for an carbon policy, and the experts are saying that the cost of power will rise regardless of a scheme – but with delay the costs will not be balanced by the economic benefits of the necessary changes in production techniques and cannot be offset without coming from an existing budget corner.
Everything about the situation, including the electorate, is saying ‘do something’, Prof Garnaut has the right plan, but the government chooses to do nothing.
I agree with Gittens that Gillard better hurry up to an election. The precious little extra support she just managed to wrest as a new PM in the PV will ebb away as the realisation of the continuation of do-nothing sinks in. How can these bollards justify the use of the white cars when they are so inert?
They condemn their supporters to the ignominy of repeating the mantra of the policy bereft “But, but, the others are worse.”, as we see on PB so often these days.
Anyone here Julia on Fox FM on Monday?? She just giggled the whole way through like a teenager…..So not funny, but hey the youf of today. They are obviously the types that find 2 and half men funny
“A senior economist with RBC Capital Markets, Su-Lin Ong, says Treasury still appears to be erring on the side of caution in its growth forecasts.”
So if the forecasts are conservative (which makes sense) that means Robb is an even more comprehensive incompetant than he is making out??
The Aryan Race i suppose
I think that in the washup from the election the first thing we’ll see is a carbon price. I don’t think it can be taken to the election (double backflip thingy), but I think it can be sold over a 3 year period. One gets the feeling of inevitability about this. We are starting to seem like a international pariah on this.
I’m glad I’m not your English comprehension teacher. The article says quite clearly that “the man” (ie, Mohammad Isa) is “a senior Afghan al-Qa’ida-linked figure.”
Why is it of note? How is it relevant to the key point? Of course he hasn’t been arrested for terrorism offences – if he’s on his way to Australia, he not likely to have done any offences in Indoesnia.
Jeez, they don’t miss a beat, do they? After weeks of dire warnings about what any sort of RSPT would do to our mining industry – closing down mines, shredding jobs, losing business to other countries, destroying the economy – the Government finally strikes a compromise deal the mining companies are happy with.
And what are the first questions the media want answered? – Why isn’t it bigger? Where’s the rest of our revenue? Why isn’t it what you said it would be?
“that means Robb is an even more comprehensive incompetant than he is making out??”
Robb is a bumbling, stumbling fool. His media appearances are shambolic. I have only seen him on sky recently being interviewed because they suck up to him at every moment.
I think on an ETS its really dependant on the Greens having clear BOP in a new Senate. That will create a situation where the ALP can negotiate with EITHER a left or right wing block to get SOMETHING through.
In the current Senate they have to come up with something that both the left and right wings of politics will support which has been shown to be impossible. Although, it has to be said they got pretty close with two of the Libs willing to cross the floor for the last vote.
imacca @ 2191
Shakespeare is an endless inspiration for pithy one liners and cutting insults. My high school English classes didn’t go entirely to waste!
The ear worm of the month.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftUvfi1J0QI
He’s not on his way to Australia though is he? This is the old technique used by Howard’s bastards as they mongered in fear as we all well remember.
You know and I know that known Al Quaida terrorists do not get entry into Australia as refugees. The have not, they are not, and they will not.
It is simply code for “the Muslims are coming, the Muslins are coming ” – it’s a bogan trigger guaranteed to get them talking irrational crap in the pubs and clubs.
The only reason you are trying to give the ‘story’ oxygen is that it suits the current right-wing Labor agenda on AS policy. Transparent as.
imacca@2204
What I want to know is why can’t the government announce a policy of the current Garnaut plan and take it to the election to be put before the new parliament straight after?
‘Cause Abbott will run a scare of great big tax, that everything will cost more, that your lamb roast will cost $200 and you will freeze to death in winter and boil in summer.
Geez are you really that silly?
Are you really that thick? Your mob wouldn’t support an ETS and now a few weeks out from an election you call on the government to try again with a policy that will be even harder to sell to the public. You must have rocks in your head.
jaundiced @2208, you’re asking for a bleedingly obvious answer. Its about the lack of public support for a fully fledged carbon reduction policy. Brought on by the climate deniers and the toxic media (and aided and abetted by the Greens, oddly enough).
Also in the SMH and why Murdoch press and Sky will not let this rest
http://www.smh.com.au/national/immigration-debate-killing-government-radio-quotes-evans-saying-20100714-10ao0.html?autostart=1
I would say the same of your critical analysis Pseph.
Later
They are saying he is “linked” to senior al-Qa’ida figures.
What it is not an offence in indonesia to be a ” senior al-Qa’ida linked figure” in the manner you are suggesting this man supposedly is? Are you suggesting it is not a illegal, prohibited organisation within Indonesia? Seriously?
BH @2212, there’s nothing particular negative for the government in that radio grab. Says it like it is really. What’s missing though is the media introspecting on its own role in stirring up rank fear.
cudchewer – yes I agree there’s no negative but I thought I detected a sad note from Chris Evans. Was he stopped from talking about it previously.
It could have been so different if Labor had used their popularity in 2008 to educate and quell the disquiet. A completely wasted opportunity then.
They’ve also not highlighted that the Libs passed the changes through the Senate in 2008.
Ah, Tony…
Just saw of grab of him saying it’s typical of Labor to ‘find’ extra money just before an election so that they can pork barrel. It’s apparently the Labor way.
If that’s the way he intends to fight the election, I can only shake my head. He’s just going to walk aimlessly around saying, “It’s not fair, it’s not fair.”
Peter Martin on why Swan released updated figures today:
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2010/07/why-swan-told-all-again-just-two-months.html
BH
Another case of Ministers not being given the responsibility to run policy, instead the policy needed to be cleared by the black hole of PM&C .
This was the same under Howard, I hope it gets kicked into the garbage bin of failed Govt style after Julia wins in August.
ruawake@2209
And that scares you does it? Are you really that marshmallow?
So its official: the government is a quivering milksop; a leaderless wandering tribe lurching around bumping into itself, because of nothing other than rank political FEAR. Pathetic that Labor in 2010 has come to this. And its strongest supporters.
And benefit of Gillard over the other guy is exactly …?
Adrian
“the conservative side of the electorate are viewed as idiots who will accept the most blatant dog-whistling, pork- barrelling and lies” Labor might not have this opinion but Abbott most certainly does and the polls are proving him right.
jv
Its politics, ever heard of it?
2219
I was right – you do have rocks in your head
I can’t believe he gets away with these comments when they did it themselves for years. Gittins went in really hard on Julia G and Labor today and because he is well regarded that will could make a difference and yet Abbott & Co can say whatever they like without challenge.
It’s damn heartbreaking.
I can’t believe he gets away with these comments when they did it themselves for years. Gittins went in really hard on Julia G and Labor today and because he is well regarded that could make a difference and yet Abbott & Co can say whatever they like without challenge.
It’s damn heartbreaking.
BH
True, true
jv – no, but it scares the heck out of a lot of voters who been told this for the past year. It may be stupid but that’s the way they see it. The details needed to be sold heavily for a couple of years with accompanying Govt. advertising but Kev backed himself into a corner when he said advtsg would be cut heavily.
She will win. That’s enough for me, sunshine.
Evening all.
Laocoon @ 2078
The interesting thing about that BDI article for me was the figure that China has ordered 3800 or ships this year. Is that ships to be built?
whooee
It is pathetic jv @ 2219. Over and over again we are told how useless, hopeless, incompetent and downright scary are most of the coalition shadow ministers, and it’s true. But Labor is running scared of them, afraid of its own shadow.
So what does that say about Labor?
Every time someone moans about ‘sloppy joe’ or Robb or Bishop etc etc, it simply reminds me how pathetic Labor is in not standing up to this bunch of craven idiots.
So would have Rudd.
adrain, the opposition in this country these last 2 years has been the media not the Liberal party who couldn’t fight their way out of a wet paper bag.
Maybe
Yep he would have won, but the reasons for him being the member for Griffith would still be in play.
Jaundiced, it isn’t the ALP that’s the milksops (you must read regency period romances to use THAT word!) but the ‘red-necks, boguns and the grey brigade’ (not my terms but for the sake of argument I’ll use them) out in suburbia who hear “GREAT BIG NEW TAX” and wet themselves.
The fact that it is based on lies and misinformation escapes them — once the line is said, their ears close no matter what explanations come after.
Plus, morally they all say they want to do something about climate change — but inreality, what they REALLY want is for the government to fix it, at no cost to them.
So we’ll blame the media, the elecorate, anybody but the ALP – couldn’t be the fault of the actual government of course.
Gee Sky News are really running hard on asylum seekers. Even at this hour they are still running with grabs of Bronnie from this morning talking up TPVs and Nauru.
Spot on, Tom H, and you know what happens when you try to fight them. You get no positive air and lots of negatives. Labor’s fighting on 2 fronts and then we have the Green belting them up as well.
I say go on the attack now and challenge the lot of them, but you have to do it with good policy all the way.
ruawake@2221
It’s milksop politics. It is exactly what got Rudd into trouble, and they are still practising it.
Tom Hawkins
Is your learned contribution from the Treasury modelling or is it something from Professor Garnaut’s latest paper?
In the forlorn hope that the overly-defensive party faithful want to actually consider the issue objectively, then consider these elements that make the government’s inaction stupid, politically and economically, as well as environmentally:
1. The inbuilt compensation scheme for increases in household power costs.
2. The fact that power costs will increase from now, even without a reduction scheme.
3. The longer we wait to start real action on reductions with a 2020 target, the worse will be the impact on power cost increases.
4. No carbon scheme with the allied economic growth means power increases cannot be compensated without cost to the budget.
That is apart form the business planning aspects that will assist the economy, and the international imperative to get going with carbon reduction.
If you a still quivering in fear of the deniers and the voters’ hip pocket, have another look at Possum’s analysis of the latest polling on voter opinion, which is still generally in favour of action; the decline over the past months merely reflects the lack of leadership on the issue from the government. The issue has yet to be aggressively sold. They should bring back PJK for that.
Jenauthor
So it is OK to give in to cheap empty slogans from idiots on the biggest issues of our time? Not to me.
Not if ‘our’ pathetic partisan media had had their way. Their hatefest against Kevin Rudd was the most blatant and egregious of any media crusade we’re ever witnessed.
IMO the main reason Labor had to kill off his Prime Ministership was that his name had been made toxic in the electorate. Not because of anything in particular that he’d done or not done, by by the handiwork of the very toxic, craven, agenda-driven media.
If not for the media bastards and their crusading Abbott would be lucky to be pushing 40% TPP.
Neither, it’s a comment on your lack of political understanding.
adrian – many of us have complained that Labor has not sold its achievements well enough and has not stood up to defend parts of its stimulus package but it doesn’t alter the fact that it has to fight harder than the Libs for positives.
It is really hard to counteract fear campaigns otherwise the Libs wouldn’t run them.
It may be the biggest issue to you but for many the biggest issue is how to pay for the stuff they need, let alone the stuff they want.
@2215…
Yes, I agree completely. Back in early 2008, the thing that griped me most was that the government should have been acting to actually lead public opinion and neutralise the issue properly. It may well have lost a few points with the bogans, but there are also votes to be gained from the perception of actually having a moral commitment (the Apology was part of its initial honeymoon) and it would gain from the subsequent debate denying oxygen to the subsequent beat ups and scare campaigns, and it would eventually have gained from marginalising the bogans from social pressure.
When Rudd came into power, I felt that behind him stood some very clued up people who understood the electorate and not only wanted to get Labor back into power but also wanted to finally get rid of some of the nonsense memes from our culture “Liberals are better economic managers”. But sadly, that wasn’t the case. I don’t necessarily think Julia’s advisors are going to be “visionary” either.. but I stand to be corrected.
That they don’t call out Abbott’s empty slogans is proof enough of at least the incompetent laziness of the MSM or, indeed, their bias.
They’re so blindingly retarded in their understanding of politics and economics that they tremble like kids do when Daddy tells them the story of Little Red Riding Hood and the Great Big Bad Wolf.
1/ j/v
I’ve proved bfore you know nothing about CC , and indeed I also proved you falsified Garnaut coments claiming it was aka Greens polisy
You , like Adrian is a typical radical extreme left green full of gooose Greens Party talking points
2/ Cud chewer
Posted Wednesday, July 14, 2010 at 4:56 pm | Permalink
Chud Chewrer
“jaundiced @2208, you’re asking for a bleedingly obvious answer. Its about the lack of public support for a fully fledged carbon reduction policy. Brought on by the climate deniers and the toxic media (and aided and abetted by the GREENS, oddly enough).”
yes agreed , a point I’ve made numerous in great detail , but not well concise as thou
So Psephos do you acknowledge the semantic importance of the “-” in “senior Afghan al-Qa’ida-linked”, and acknowledge the validity of Victoria’s initial point?
Of course the government have contributed to the position they were in 3 months ago. I’m not like a greens supporter who can never criticise their party policies or tactics.
adraian @2236, is the hysteria over a few poor souls that end up on boats looking for a new life, the fault of this government? or the fault of scared, half witted voters and the toxic media and the amoral opposition?
When I said that the ALP holds the electorate in contempt, I didn’t expect to be proven so right so soon.
Not at all. But sometimes, fighting something gives it more kudos than it deserves. The AS issue is a case in point. In terms of REAL importance — it is really a non-issue. But by engaging, they’ve played into the hands of Morrison and co. Thus, the electorate gets conned.
I mean, abbott even puts it in the childlike parlance of:
It’s Little Red Riding Hood fodder for supposed adults.
Remember: Conservatives are not necessarily stupid but most stupid people are conservatives.
Jenauthor
‘Milksop’ was used by Chaucer and Shakespeare well before regency romances. I’d rather be associated with their use of it if you don’t mind.
From it we get the adjectives: milksoppy , milksopping; and the noun: milksopism
The Free Dictionary has the synonyms as:
Milquetoast, pantywaist, sissy, pansy
We should all familiarise ourselves with these terms for the campaign if Gillard doesn’t get real.
jen @2253
Yes, I sympathise with that, but the problem is if you can’t control the amount of oxygen being given to the issue then like an oil fire, your best bet is to blow it out.
Meanwhile the Greens hold everyone in contempt, they will be holding the Govt in contempt for the next 10 years.
JV — thanks for the kind attempt at educating me — but I have a masters in literature … and have read Chaucer et.al. as nauseum!
The reason I suggested regency romances is that currently many people red them, and the average Jo Blow would more likely have encountered the word there.
they read them too!
How can one have anything but contempt for those simpletons who can be manipulated by slogans such as
A four-year old has as much nous as some of them.
I’m not the ALP, Adrian, and you’re not going to understand these sorts of issues unless you can come to terms with the fundamental problem, how to be a civilised government, and lead people both economically and morally if those you are trying to govern are for the most part, banal, unintelligent, selfish, shallow and easily paniced.
OK, well, first of all the government took fairly significant action last year and this year: it introduced far reaching legislation (albeit I concede not as far reaching as some might prefer) that was defeated in the Senate. The only party supporting the only viable action proposed in the past three years (that is, remotely likely to attract the requisite parliamentary support) was the Labor Party. You may not have liked the action that was taken, but to decry Labor ‘inaction’ in this regard is, I suggest, misleading.
Secondly, I must have missed the announcement of the policy that the government will be taking into the election under Prime Minister Gillard. Perhaps you can point to me that announcement? The one where she says ‘We’ll do nothing for the next three years.’?
If not, to now accuse the government of inaction is pre-emptive, premature and pre-adolescent.
jenauthor@2253
Not at all. But sometimes, fighting something gives it more kudos than it deserves. The AS issue is a case in point. In terms of REAL importance — it is really a non-issue. But by engaging, they’ve played into the hands of Morrison and co. Thus, the electorate gets conned.
Not ‘giving kudos’ to the AS issue? Not sure what that means. Anyway, the government’s job is not to ‘fight’ it but to lead the voters through it and do what is right.
By your logic, the government ends up doing exactly what the opposition says. In fact, that is what is happening.
OK, cud chewer, and these presumably are the same idiots that voted Labor for Labor in 2007?
Anyway, you’ve encapsulated perfectly the ALP’s attitude. No point in leading because the electorate is generally too stupid to understand anything beyond empty slogans.
No wonder we’re stuffed.
On a personal level I agree, again, with JV. A genuine carbon price is needed. It is needed now. There is no rational reason to delay/seek consensus/avoid action. Being afraid of any and every attack from the opposition/media is to never take a stand on anything. If you ‘clear the decks’ it has to be for more than just winning the election. Neutralize troublesome lower priority issues by all means, but only when you’ve actually got some high priority issues that need your political capital.
I guess that they are going to duck the carbon pricing issue to get past the election.
I can -almost- accept that, if it means that they are honestly looking at picking up as many middle-of-the-road votes as possible assuming what they lose to the Greens is ok in electing greens to the Senate for BoP and one or two potential (mostly irrelevant) lower house seats.
Thinking in the most positive way possible, one can only hope that they expect to start real negotiations with the Greens after the election and just put something through as soon as the Senate changes over.
I continue to fear that the biggest problem for the ALP with respect to a carbon price is parts of the ALP itself, not the coalition or the media or big business.
Regardless, if the ALP doesn’t make a strong statement about a carbon price before the election, the greens will be getting my first preference. Not that that’s going to put the fear of god into them, sadly
Why do the Greens have this unerring belief that the Govt, be it Labor or Liberal will give a fig about their view on anything?
Oh we have 4-6 Senators, so we can dictate policy. Give me a break.
Cuppa
Are you as patronising towards people in other aspects of your life as you are to those who either vote differently to you or hold different political concerns?
Because tonight you have shown yourself to be a patronising bastard towards a large chunk of the voting public who you presuppose through the prism of you own snobbery (sorry, no other word for it) will vote a particular way – and frankly there is no great evidence for such.
The essence of our democracy is to respect those who hold different views, who vote a different way, and then to respect the will of the people after an election.
Rua
If the Greens have the balance of power in the senate after the election, they will need to be listened to – there will also be more pressure on them justify their actions also. Jackol – you mention irrelevant lower house seats. If by chance it was a hung parliament – unlikely but possible, every seat, every vote will be relevant, especially as the Greens would be very unlikely to have that BoP on their own – Bob Katter, Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor would make things more fluid.
At least after this election, Steve Fielding will not be wielding his vote in the BoP.
Why?
Blackburnpseph went:
Well that’s the ideal anyway. The reality is closer to parties and pragmatic partisans pandering to “those who hold different views” so that those “who vote a different way” won’t. After the E Day, while it’s noble to “respect the will of the people after an election” – it’s usually only done grudgingly because there is simply no useful alternative.
Adrian @2264, obvious verballing like that makes you look foolish.
Rewi
Leaving aside your historical revisionism, the inaction I’m talking about is not so much last year, but since Copenhagen. Negotiations were commenced with the Greens, Garnaut made his excellent speech on 26 January giving the government a path forward in line with 450 ppm, but then the government dumped the whole schmeer.
Gillard is continuing that inaction so far to her great discredit. A policy in line with Garnaut would make a good platform for the election, would get industry readying for what they need to do, would restore our position internationally on the issue, and address the problems associated with rising power costs, especially is we want to compensate the poor.
I am bemused that you seem unaware of all the statements as to government policy by Gillard. She has categorically stated that there will be no price on carbon before 2012, and there won’t be one until ‘community consensus’ is built up whatever that means. If you think that means there’ll be a trading scheme announce before the election, I will take your bet.
If ‘to now accuse the government of inaction is pre-emptive, premature and pre-adolescent.’ then you’ll also have to accuse Ross Gittens of that.
If it is inappropriate to you to discuss the current government inaction, which is real and present, then so be it. As a Labor supporter I’m not surprised you don’t want to talk about it.
Will it be worth talking about when we hear about a few tokenisms on renewable energy form Gillard, which is the general consensus on what will be announced?
For mine, the more talking about before the final announcement, it in the light of what Gillard has said already ruling out an ETS or a price on carbon before 2012/13, the better. If talking about it in the community leads Gillard to stronger action than the factional nobodies in the back room want the government to take then well and good.
The first report on ABC 5.30pm news as I was driving home this afternoon? You guessed it – the Opposition says that the Budget figures are wrong! This is even before they have bothered to state what the Budget information provided by the Treasurer actually was.
What sort of an inverted world do these ABC news radio cretins live in where you can run as your lead news item a denunciation of a set of facts before you have reported the facts being referred to? Putting aside the utter illogic of such an approach to news, who is making these editorial decisions?
I can accept this ingrained bias from News Ltd without being happy about it because they are a private organisation with a political agenda to defeat the elected Labor Government by any means necessary, but why are my taxes being used to serve an obvious political bias driven by the shadowy members of the ABC senior management and an ABC Board stacked with Coalition stooges?
The facts, ABC, just the facts, to quote Joe Friday …. is that too much to ask for 8 my cents a day?
Rua
Why? Because if they hold the Balance of Power, they have the ability to block or frustrate the legislative program if they vote with the opposition (whoever it is) against the government of the day.
And the way they are polling at the moment, and the others have been polling – there are likely to be mainly 3 -2 -1 splits. And that 3 will not be the ALP in every state.
If Labor win the next election the Libs will hold the balance of power in the Senate, if the Libs win Labor will hold the balance of power. When will this sink into the Green groupthink?
SNIP: Deleted for offensive language – The Management.
cud chewer, you said: “those you are trying to govern are for the most part, banal, unintelligent, selfish, shallow and easily paniced.”
I said that your view was that: “electorate is generally too stupid to understand anything beyond empty slogans.”
A fair interpretation of your statement I would have thought, unless you are going to redifine unintelligent, selfish and shallow.
Don’t think it’s me looking foolish in this instance.
Two headlines from this afternoon – just one hour apart:
First the OO:
Prices boom hides mining tax shortfall
then the ABC:
Price rises slash mining tax shortfall
Pretty similar?
It’s their ABC.
Poss
If after a Liberal win (extremely unlikely IMHO) but if …. imagine the squealing and howls of outrage from some who inhabit this blogospshere. There would not be the “OK, they won. another chance in 3 years” – it will be “we wuz robbed by (… insert favourite mebers of personal axis of evil …) blah, blah, blah ..In essence, there would be a retreat into their own superiority , and oooooo.
Lets face it folks. We live in a safe stable democracy that is fundamentally honest (government and voting system), and with preferential voting, we get to make sure our vote counts.
cud chewer@2261
It’s called leadership.
SA is the most conservative, least likely to embrace change of any Australian state I’ve lived in (indeed anywhere I’ve lived in). Change, no matter how trivial, is resisted almost unto death here. Yet, look at what Don Dunstan was able to do by inspiring people and providing leadership.
Rule by opinion polls isn’t leadership. Nor is it good government.
and you point is ….. ?
So Cuppa
What do I think of a party (the ALP in this case) who in 2007 put out campaign leaflets that they were not going to allow the building of a nuclear power station in Deakin. Which, btw, is a suburban area. Give me a break, it cuts both ways.
I’m sick of the media reporting the Opposition’s view before the Government’s on these issues. How often did you hear “Kim Beazley says Howard’s new policy is a shambles… oh yeah, we better explain what the policy is first”? Never.
Goddammit.
I used to go on about the bloody ABC as much as anyone, but since Gillard came to power I don’t care anymore. It’s quite liberating not to be concerned about their obvious bias because constantly whining about it on blogs isn’t going to change anything. Hell, it doesn’t even make you feel better.
Just ‘get over it’.
Dunstan was premier 30+ years ago. He was premier before Whitlam became PM. The world has changed since the days when Don was king.
And speaking of leadership, I always think of the late Peter Andren, a man of principle who took a conservative electorate with him on issues like asylum seekers.
And it certainly wasn’t ’30+’ years ago.
Well at least they kept their promise.
So blackburnpseph,
You want your grandkids to get AbbottSerfChoiced, correct? You vote Liberal in the full knowledge that that’s what he and the Liberals want to do to them.
So when was Dunstan premier of S.A. Adrian?
” You might think the world of intellectual inbreds, bogans and retards”
Frankly Cuppa that says it all. Please tell us all why you are so superior? What is it about YOU? rather than them
One day, you might even meet some of these people and find you quite like them. Change the words above so that they are about race or religion or gender or sexual preference or economic status? Where do stand then? Snobbery is just another source of prejudice – what if some rich Liberal voter from Toorak or the North Shore made the comment – you would be down on them like a ton of bricks. Then you could add hypocrite to your CV.
Gee some people have short memories for the ALP spent 10 years whinging. they did very little else. the irony is the Liberals have for the most part been no better than the ALP between 1996 – 2006 were
I wasn’t talking about Don Dunstan.
Cuppa @ 2289
You missed the point. Both parties are able to treat people like fools, it is not a one way street.
Tom @ 2288
Dunstan resigned in 1979 – so it was 30+ years ago. Please adjust your calendar.
Blackburn – just like Catallaxy and Bolt were after the 07 election.
Touche
Well said blackburnpseph.
I didn’t miss any point. You knowingly vote for the party that seeks to SerfChoices your grandkids.
Mind the karma, buddy…
adrian
I agree with Peter Andren. His views are here.
http://www.peterandren.com/media/refugees.mov
I would argue that Labor is doing much of what he desired,
Mexican @ 2292
It is about opposition. Also comes back to, Governments lose, oppositions don’t win.
What I meant as: by reacting to the opposition’s nonsense, the AS issue became bigger than it should have been.They inadvertently gave the issue ‘air’.
The so-called boat people are NOT a real issue. A few thousand people as against the many many thousands who outstay visas over 3 years means that mountain has been made out of a molehill.
The problem is: the average person in the electorate have been ‘indoctrinated’ by the opposition inflaming the issue.
The opposition has no platforms or policies upon which to base their election campaign. Therefore they manufacture some. Trouble is, rather than ignoring the opposition nonsense, the govt saw fit to ‘bite’. And the media has acted as primary fascilitators.
He had to stints as Premier:
June 67 to April 68
and
June 70 to February 79
My statement that Dunstan was Premier 30+ years ago is correct. Please adjust your calender and/or buy yourself an abacus.
Cuppa@2298
Aha! I detect another variation of Labor’s sad Last Chance Saloon plea, “But … but the opposition is even worse than us.”
There’ll be a few more of those between here and the election, I’ll bet.
Cuppa
1. Don’t tell me who I vote for because frankly you don’t know.
2. Be real, Workchoices is dead. Only came about because of a once in a generation senate majority.
3. If the Libs wanted to bring it back – they wouldn’t get elected and it wouldn’t get through if they had been!
As for my karma it is fine, I would mind your own.
Sorry Tom, got you and Adrian confused,
We’re about to see the proof of that within the next 2 months.
blackburnpseph
Accepted
Possum
Look what you could get if you moved across country…
http://perthworst.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/week116possums.jpg?w=640&h=480
Ah but Tom – as the Greens would most likely have the BoP in the senate, they would not get it through.
jenauthor@2301
I see what you mean now. Yes, there is no AS ‘problem’ in objective terms, and the government’s reaction of pandering to the LCD* was incorrect. What it required was leadership, non ‘pandership’.
The lack of leadership is a recurring theme for this government, and it doesn’t seem to be improving.
* lowest common denominator
blackburnpseph@2309
Unless Tone puts in some Green friendly Sweetner like Howie did to Meg Lees to secure the sale of Telstra
But the Libs still want to bring back Workchoices. It’s in their DNA. So long as people are reminded of that it will be a lead weight in their saddle bag. Labor will remind people of that as you would expect.
Frank
Tone will offer the Greens a Sydney to Perth cycle path, built by his Green Army.
Good point Frank. I wouldn’t put it past the Greens to strike some dirty deal to get a part of their platform in place. After all they play politics just like the major parties.
j/v
stop tellin untruths and re-writing history …Greens rejected CC legislation 3 times in 2009…that is a FACT…so Greens (and Liberals) to blame for NO CC mitigation action Bill being pased in oz
And your repeeted mistruths about Garnaut & Greens in Jan 2010 is unbeleivable
Again then , Green refused to drop there stupid minimum 25% cut demands
You a Greens party drone talking points
You give it away with your own words without any help from anyone else. “WorkChoices is dead”. You even chant Liberal slogans:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bwIm5RoK8uI
You come here defending the honour of intellectual midgets who can be manipulated by childish Liberal slogans such as
… while trying to pretend you’re not a Liberal.
I bet you’re a Great Big Fan of the Lying Abbott too.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvYzLIywCiA
Rewi Lyall
Posted Wednesday, July 14, 2010 at 6:00 pm | Permalink
j/v :”In the forlorn hope that the overly-defensive party faithful want to actually consider the issue objectively, then consider these elements that make the government’s inaction stupid, politically and economically, as well as environmentally”
Rewi: “OK, well, first of all the government took fairly significant action last year and this year: it introduced far reaching legislation (albeit I concede not as far reaching as some might prefer) that was defeated in the Senate. The only party supporting the only viable action proposed in the past three years (that is, remotely likely to attract the requisite parliamentary support) was the Labor Party. You may not have liked the action that was taken, but to decry Labor ‘inaction’ in this regard is, I suggest, misleading.
Secondly, I must have missed the announcement of the policy that the government will be taking into the election under Prime Minister Gillard. Perhaps you can point to me that announcement? The one where she says ‘We’ll do nothing for the next three years.’?
If not, to now accuse the government of inaction is pre-emptive, premature and pre-adolescent.”
excelent post of fact and reality
Frank
Are you saying that the Greens can be brought on board by the Libs with just a herbal tea bag?
If that was the case, Eric Abetz, or whoever it is, would be sending a staffer to the supermarket right now!!
The price is negotiable. As the actress said to the Bishop.
blackburnpseph@2318
See my point about Meg Lees and Telstra.
And how the WA Greens managed to stuff up one vote one value inthe upper house to help one of their own, but ensured the Nats got BoP.
Rua,
another memory of your Meeja past
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yp7cEf0F9WA
Cuppa
How do you keep your keyboard from drowning in spit?
Or does a dose of childish vitriol make it easier to clean?
I was overseas at the time but which budget did the Greens make a meal of ? 93 or 94?
spit… vitriol… grow up. “WorkChoices is dead”. Just keep that slogan uppermost in mind when voting .. and your grankids will be just fine under abbott.
I disagree, basically because it is more a lack of advertising. The trouble with sticking to a moral stance is that it can be highly impractical.
The greens found that to be the case in the ETS vote.
The govt has been leading on many fronts, but they haven’t advertised all their good work so the electorate isn’t aware.
The electorate has, instead, been given a diet of slogans like “Great Big New Tax” from the opposition, and as usual, the MSM have seen the value in that sloganism because it gives them sellable headlines. The fact that they mislead the electorate is wholly beside the point (to them).
The govt is damned if it does and damned if it doesn’t — because should they advertise their ‘leadership’ in so many areas, they are then ‘hypocrits’ because they they are breaking an election promise. No win situation.
Thus, people like you who are prone to a negative bias, have that bias reinforced day in day out. I can’t wait until the actual election campaign, as there will be no impediment to the govt telling the electorate what they have been doing that benefits them.
cud chewer
Posted Wednesday, July 14, 2010 at 6:00 pm | Permalink
“I’m not the ALP, Adrian, and you’re not going to understand these sorts of issues unless you can come to terms with the fundamental problem, how to be a civilised government, and lead people both economically and morally if those you are trying to govern are for the most part, banal, unintelligent, selfish, shallow and easily paniced.”
I’m not sure you quite meant it that way
90% of Public , being abit politcal apathetic , can only form views BASED on th sourse of info…ie MSN radio , newspapers and TV
…which is mainly toxic anti “left” , AND is a 24/7 News bubble of competing sensationalism
Added to MSN is Labor facing a extreme right Liberal Party attcking it , and Labor ALSO gitting attacked constantly from radical left Greens at th other end of politcal spectrum
…all fed to a Public who hav lives to “live” , familys to feed , and jobs/smal business’s to maintain , and if one was apolitcal as Public is there is cause and effect
Frank that must have been early, no “Prisoner” bits on the studio wall.
Tom Hawkins@2285
The world may have, but not this part of it apparently. I’m told it was ultra conservative before Dunstan, and it soon reverted to type after he retired. It certainly was when I came here a decade later.
For a more contemporary period of inspiration, consider Hawke and Keating. I’d hardly call either of their governments to have been rule by opinion poll.
All three (and Whitlam) understood what leadership was, unlike Rudd, who never seemed to get what being PM was about. Thankfully, he’s gone. Whether Gillard gets it will only become apparent after the election. The new tone from the Ministers suggests she might.
Cuppa
By the time I have grandchildren Abbott will be well and truly gone – and no I am not looking to have grandchildren in 2010 or 2011.
Obviously you can only keep one slogan in you head!
morewest
When was Dunstan Premier? Was it 30+ years ago?
Will Gillard visit Quenty tomorrow, and make her press club address the first salvo of the official campaign?
I think she will
I think she’ll visit the GG in the afternoon post Press Club
Nah, whatever she said at the PC would be lost in the election is on news. Friday or Sat makes sense to me.
“Aha! I detect another variation of Labor’s sad Last Chance Saloon plea, “But … but the opposition is even worse than us.””
JV its easy to make that kind of purile argument.
However, so far I think the ALP have governed well. Thier economic managment was appropriate to the times, AND they helped keep unemployment down. There is no way that can be spun as a bad thing.
On ETS, they tried and almost did get soemthing through that was about the most that was politically achievable. That is all that can be reasonably be asked of a government.
On AS, they dissapointed, but if they are trying to set up some kind of regional response good on them. It might even work and is a more reasonable position than ANY taken by the Libs in the last 15 years.
Where to start with the OOpo? Yup, on just about any measure they would be worse than the current Govt. They have virtually nothing in the way of policy, are demonstrably economic and foreign affairs incompetants, and nasty prats who have a habit of demonising people unfairly to push their case whenever they feel the urge.
Politics and purity dont go together JV in the real world. We take the best we can get. Hmmm, maybe somewone should point that out to the Greens????
Morewest
I started last night rereading Alan Reid’s The Whitlam Venture – just from the first few pages it was clear that there were some parallels in style between Rudd and Whitlam – intellectual arrogance, apartness from the party, mutual distrust. One of the fundamental differences is that Whitlam had to be more deferential to the party – Caucus, National Executive and National Conference were much more independent (or uncontrolled) and were willing to flex their muscle , which in fairness to EGW could make life difficult for him.
Hawke and Keating achieved the balance of appearing to show leadership and yet be ‘of’ the party. I think Julia Gillard is more likely in the Hawke / Keating mould.
Hey, don’t knock slogans! If it weren’t for retards able to be brainwashed by simplistic slogans the Liberal Party would be facing extinction right now.
Long live the slogan.
Word is that the PC speech will be about Economic Management.
Tom
You obviously have you quiz question for today!
Now one for you
- What was he wearing when he resigned?
I think Julia wants to keep the MSM off balance.
I think they’ll get all wound up tomorrow (like SKY doing all their shows live from the lawn outside G House) only to waste their time. I hope she doesn’t give the meat they want to chew on!
“Long live the slogan”
Cuppa
You have just revealed yourself as a true Cultural Revolutionary.
Pink hot pants?
A condom?
blackburnpseph@2340
If it wasn’t for slogans like It’s Time and Kevin O7 – we would still be under Liberal Rule.
Think about it.
Jenauthor
My ‘negative bias’ is against poor policy implementation on the bigger issues of which this government is guilty. Worse is no policy implementation at all, as now pertains.
If the government goes to the election in August it will be going on the basis of the platform ‘Julia Gillard has given us a bounce in the polls because she’s new and has impeccably clean decks’ and nothing else. Is that style of platform a first? I wouldn’t characterise the Hawke election in 1983 that way, for example. He had policies I seem to remember.
blackburnpseph
Although I really liked Alan Reid and his wife made great cakes you have to read his books through a Frank Packer prism.
OK, I give up.
He wore a lot of dirty ‘brown’
Cuppa@2336
pity the fibs last slogan Lemon07 was sabotaged by the rise of Julia
Tom
No – nice try. Poor man was quite ill actually so it was from hospital, very sudden full of drama – he was wearing a very 70s short terry towelling dressing gown. It made things look sadder.
Who knows Frank, the lemon might have done it!
Jenauthor
Not sure on colour, but being the 70s, it may very well have been brown.
You just confirmed my argument — those policies that are supposedly ‘poorly’ implemented have been proven to not have been at all. Much of the so-called evidence, is based on ill-informed anectdotal commentary.
You believe the headlines without looking beneath the surface.
Read the actual independent reports and you’ll find a truth that is not what you ‘believe’
I hope you guys are right. We need to get this thing on the road.
They can’t even be original with their slogans.
They borrow Lemon07 from Kevin07.
They borrow Great Big Bad New Tax from Little Red Riding Hood.
The Liberal ad campaigns show exactly what age-group they are aiming at.
Silly, childish cartoons. No class at all.
And Newspoll will be the first cab off the rank. Maybe that is why Galaxy got the gig last week?
The discussion re “intelligence” of the electorate is quite interesting. I’m the bloke who knows his ministers and oppos state and federal – a talent that probably is of no use whatsoever, except on the occasion at lunch the Herald Sun or Age quiz asks a political question.
The electorate is generally disengaged IMO. I’m reminded of the chidings I would get from my wife during the reign of the Lyin’ King (JWH)/ I could see he was a liar, manipulator, twister of the truth, and had a heart the size of a pea. SNIP: See article 10 of comment moderation guidelines – The Management.
My wife would roll her eyes at me when the soap box came out. Anyway, Health Minister Abbot starts to concern himself with a morning after pill. My wife rips the soap box out from under me and jumps on, starts using expletives, and tells me he has NO RIGHT interfering in WOMEN’S business – he wouldn’t know WTF he was talking about, and he should basically STFU.
My laughter at this reaction and pointing out the irony or dare I say it, (sotto voce) hypocrisy, of her position now as compared to every other political conversation we had about the Maggot’s term of govt, was not received in the magnanimous fashion I expected it would be.
After some time of reflection and contemplation in the shed, I realised the truism of the saying “all politics is local”. However, local doesn’t necessarily mean geographically local – it means local to what concerns people.
So for a govt to try to effect change, it has to identify what the “local’ issues are, identify how to manage the in built prejudices of the disparate group, and try to find common ground. This doesn’t mean Lowest Common Denominator, but it may mean some common ground in the middle as the “best that can be achieved” policy.
DD showed great dignity no matter what situation he was in. When he wore shorts in parliament he still commanded respect not ridicule. Yes, politics would be a better profession if there were more DDs around.
Poor Greg Hunt
Of course they can you dill.
Gotta love this Labor government.
First they give East Timor as the boaties destination. Then the next day they deny East Timor was ever named as the lkikely destination. Then the next day they say East Timor was the target.
Now Nauru has put it’s hand up and East Timor has given the big middle finger, Labor says they have entered in with negotiations with East Timor so they can’t send them to Nauru.
Is this government COMPLETELY full of crap or what?
Some have been saying that the ALP is not trashing Rudd. This pamphlet by Bob Debus on sustainable population mentioned in today’s crikey email is doing it.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/07/14/the-alp-refines-its-outer-sydney-message-little-australia/
There is an article on ‘The Political Sword’ titled “How to beat up a story – abc style”, reegarding the East Timor AS story. Very interesting.
“If the government goes to the election in August it will be going on the basis of the platform ‘Julia Gillard has given us a bounce in the polls because she’s new and has impeccably clean decks’ and nothing else.”
Wrong JV, its more than past time for an election considering its a first term Govt.:)
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2010/07/ruddgillard-government-serves-record-first-term.html
If they wait any longer some MSM idiot will start running with the meme that they are frightened to go to the polls and are dragging it out.
Basically, the Oopo should be more than ready for an election after their record stint as a first term ooposition. ALP seem ready for it and there is not much going to be achieved by bringing parlaiment back now is there.
Afraid not, I’m as much a political tragic as anyone here. As the doctor said to his patient : “Whoa, way too much information.”
johncanb, I count three shades of green on that card. If that isn’t proof positive that Labor understands green politics, I don’t know what is.
Hmm, wonder if Julia G has already talked to the GG (you know, modern telecommunications style) and is going to announce the election date at her Press Club speech tomorrow??
That would get all and sundry in a flap wouldnt it, and be a nice stroke for the press gallery going into the campaign??
Getting WAY ahead of yourself. The Fiberals are only in Opposition.
Actually it is usually the other way ’round.
Like most of your ilk you are very selective in your appreciation of the story.
East Timor govt did NOT give the govt the middle finger, the opposition in the ET govt gave our govt the finger — just like our opposition does.
And just like our govt — the ET govt doesn’t have to take any notice of a loud but useless opposition.
1892CFC. I would agree that all politics is local. There is a perception in many parts of Australia presently that believe we are being overrun by migrants and refugees. I don’t know if anyone recalls but a few months ago, the property market was running hot, and in the MSM, on a current affair programs and talk back radio, the angst from people was that the hike in property prices and shortage of property was due to people coming from overseas and overseas buyers flooding the market. Guess what, interest rates have since gone up, and properties are now getting passed in and being sold for less. I’m no longer hearing any more on the issue.
I wonder if Tone realised that Australia no longer owns the Nauru detention centre and that it is now being used as a High School?
I bet he thinks some of the BER money was spent on a new school hall.
I know that the Sunshine Coast in Qld in being over-run with migrants – 600 a week, most from Victoria. I reckon a detention centre should be built in Dubbo to process the Mexicans,
TTH, the subtlety of the Government’s approach obviously escapes you. If you can’t work out the destination then the boat smugglers can’t either.
Again, you confirm my argument. None so blind as those who refuse to see. (Apologies in advance to the purists with my bastardisation of the quote)
My opinion (which might be anal) is that you need all information before you come to a conclusion. Parroting the slogans/opinions of any particular group, without checking the veracity of said slogans/opinions, is lazy at best, and destructive at worst.
The opposition has spent the best part of three years taking the ‘destructive’ road — rather than seeking the national interest. The same can be said for the Greens on many votes.
All I can say is that politics is a self-serving business — but some appear more self-serving than others.
JV, in other words “why let the facts get in the way of a good story”.
The Parliament of East Timor, 70% of which was sitting at the time, UNAMIOUSLY gave Gillard the big middle finger.
Now I’m not the greatest at maths, but i’m pretty bloody sure 70% of a Parliament is enough to vote for or against something when EVERY SINGLE MEMBER votes the same way.
The Labor spin of course is that the entire parliament wasn’t sitting, so that the 70% of the parliament unamiously voting against your East Timor solution doesn’t count. Just how stupid do you lot think the Australian population is?
Victoria @ 2370,
I remember that “reportage” of mainly chinese/asian non residents buying in Doncaster and Templestowe, then leaving the house sit empty as a nest egg, while Australians couldn’t find a rental property. Are you telling me this didn’t happen?
1892CFC. I am saying that clearance rate of properties has gone down considerably in the past few months. Why isn’t there a shortage of properties at the moment?
If that is HONESTLY the case then I stand corrected –my info was that it was less than half and all opposition.
Victoria,
Sorry – I was being facetious, but it fell flat in type. I agree with you that there are a lot of media beat ups – especially small papers that hire A Bolt as an Opinion writer – the OS house buyers being one.
“Gee some people have short memories for the ALP spent 10 years whinging. they did very little else. the irony is the Liberals have for the most part been no better than the ALP between 1996 – 2006 were”
That is probably the case. But was every media organisation in the country, including the taxpayer funded one, lining up against every single thing the government said? For their entire term? Did the media, every time Howard opened that mealy mouth of his to say the word “black”, report him as having said “white”? I didn’t think so.
People here seem to think that Abbott is going to crumble under pressure. The problem is that he won’t be placed under any pressure whatsoever. We only have to look to the health debate where Abbott made a complete fool of himself but that dopey snowball from Sky said that she thought Abbott won the debate. Nothing will change in the campaign proper. Every Abbott ballsup (and there will be several daily) will be air-brushed and every syllable Gillard speaks will be parsed, diced and sliced to give the Liberals the maximum benefit. The media in this country is utterly crazed with the desire to get rid of this Labor government. There is probably a reason related to something material they will gain from it but I’m buggered if I know what it is.
That all said, I think Labor will somehow get over the line. In my opinion, will make it the greatest electoral victory of all time. I very much doubt that any party in Australia’s history has been faced with the assault that Labor has faced since 2006. And they have only been behind in two polls despite that. The reality is that Abbott by now should be running in a one horse race but this simpleton still needs propping up! If that victory happens, some in the media – talkin’ to you Pies, Bolt, Parrot (stuff it – too many to list) – will need to be sedated. They are simply not going to deal with it. But not everyone in Australia is taken in by this bias. Many will have noted the absolute unfairness of it and will mark the media down forever. I know I have.
blackburnpseph
Your comment is misleading about the reactors. It was stated that they would not allow one to be built in Deakin.
Many of the 25 reactor sites chosen were in suburban coastal towns. They were not going to build them out in the boondocks.
The selected sites are:
Queensland: Townsville, Mackay, Rockhampton, Gladstone, Bundaberg,Sunshine Coast and Bribie Island
New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory: Port Stephens, CentralCoast, Botany Bay, Port Kembla and Jervis Bay/Sussex Inlet
Victoria: South Gippsland, Western Port, Port Phillip and Portland
South Australia: Mt Gambier/Millicent, Port Adelaide and Port Augusta/PortPirie
Found a link to this on VEXNEWS. Worth a read as this is one of those old chesnuts that keeps surfacing time after time and likely will now election time is upon us.
http://www.kochie.com.au/20100713172/the-real-benefits-for-asylum-seekers-in-australia
Bernie Fraser on 7.30 report was critical of both Labor and Libs – fair ctiricsm. However rebuttal was only from Sloppy Joe. I was wondering if Labor was given a chance to challenge what Bernie said.
Not the whole population Truthy just you and especially at Maths.
34 of the 65 is not 70%.
The Singer btw is Warren H Williams:
Well said, Roy Orbison.
1892CFC. Sorry. I misunderstood your intent. There may have been some properties sold to overseas buyers, but if we are being pushed out of the market by them as was being reported, why has the property market completely gone off the boil? I would think it had more to do with interest rate rises than anything else.
“– talkin’ to you Pies, Bolt, Parrot (stuff it – too many to list) – will need to be sedated”
We need to start a campaign, for Piers and Bolt to employed as live to air commentators on election night.
This must be conditional. They must be chained to their chairs until at least an hour after the result is announced.
I would actualy pay to watch that.
Roy Orbison,
Don’t read political commentators anymore, turn off news radio when politics comes on unless it is a direct news conference (no editing), watch ‘hardly any news anymore on TV. This govt must be really screwing with something in the media that has p*ssed them off.
Consider any of Red Kerry’s interviews with Kevin R compared to Bob and Blanche love in. I know Hawkie is 20 years retired but the smirking about the fact he was unfaithful to his wife while in the lodge 3 to 4 times rather than the 2 times Kerry thought from the book was like an interview from an alternate universe compared to Kerry and Kev.
SNIP: See article 2 of comment moderation guidelines – The Management.
jenauthor@2380. As mentioned in an earlier post, there is interesting article on ‘The Political Sword’ regarding the East Timor issue you might find of interest.
Roy Orbison -
For the most part, I disagree with you. The problem, as I see it, is that the Government has so far done a poor job of painting the media and commentators as unreliable crack smokers. This was something at which Howard’s government was brilliant. I hope it improves under Gillard (that is, the Government must sell itself and be convincing in brushing off criticism as irrelevant poppycock), but I haven’t seen too much sign of that so far.
imacca -
I would too. Quite a bit, in fact. It could be a pay-per-view event on Foxtel.
OK, time to score day 8.
Gillard&Co kicked another own goal with Evan’s comments. Pollies of his stature should know when to make comments and when not to make them. Nauru is obviously desperate for some moolah so will sign anything but this helps Abbott, not Gillard.
Smith continues to do a good job.
One thing you could say about Rudd was that he was unlucky. For example, Obama failed to drop by not once, but twice. Gillard, OTOH, is lucky. A revised terms of trade on commodities saves the Government’s bacon on the difference between what they thought they would get out of the Fair Mining Tax and what looked likely to eventuate. Luck’s a fortune. Swan looked like he knew what he was talking about. Reserve not raising interest rates, consumer confidence zooming and the stockmarket soaring all good for Gillard… but storing up a bit of grief if the next interest rate occurs during the formal election campaign.
Opposition reduced to its usual carping negativism. While Governments lose elections, Oppositions have to offer a bit of hope as well. None in evidence so far. Robb is sad, Abbott is Mr No. At least Hockey tried to argue Policy 101. Better than nothing. Bernie Fraser’s intervention good for Gillard rather than Abbott.
A win for Gillard today, 2 points overall, but with continuing vulnerability in the boats belt.
Cumulative score after day eight: Gillard 9; Abbott 7.
Diddums Colin – you’re pissed off that Rorts for Regionshas been castrated
If he’s such a “star”, why are they running him in the NT where has has no chance of winning?
@ Jon
[Not the whole population Truthy just you and especially at Maths.
34 of the 65 is not 70%].
I may be wrong but that works out at 52%. While more than half, only marginally. And did not include the govt ‘heavyweights’ I expect.
Yes, but my point is that we here on PB have access – and choose to access – more information than the ordinary voter would imagine is even available. That is, varied, MSM and independent, on-line and off-line, free to air and pay.
It’s not those of here we need worry about as to informed decision-making, it’s the lowest common denominator. They do not have all the information – on the ETS, on asylum seekers, you name it. And the government shouldn’t be leaving everything without explanation as much as they do. It’s that old leadership thing again. No wonder the MSM takes over.
2377 fits perfectly in to one of Cuppas descriptions, take your pick.
Can’t read, can’t spell, can’t count, relies totally on MSM propaganda.
Rest your case Cuppa.
Adam why must you point out the bleeding obvious!
Ssssshhhhhh dont try and give the Greens any good advice LoL!
I am still hoping for a 3/3 Senate Result in Victoria. The Greens can take Melbourne as a consolation prize
some one may have commented but my goodness good comments on the 7.30 report
tonight. Joe did not get much of a look in.
Thanks Victoria –will read the article tomorrow when I can concentrate — with cricket, and le Tour, am a wee bit distracted!
And I’m a girl!
Psephos@2395
No doubt to exploit the Intervention is bad meme and only the Greens will scrap it, since Williams is popular amongst indigenous folk, and even the wider Country Music fanbase via this duet with John Williamson.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORkxEWA8mu8
@ JV
Then why have you been parroting the slogans and tired accusations that have been proved to not hold water?
Jenauthor, You forget that you are dealing with TTH. TTH added 3+4 = 7, 6+5 = 11, divided 7 by 11 giving roughly 64% and rounded up to the nearest 10 thereby giving 70%.
jv
You’re not wrong. What really riles my heckles is when I hear people making statements then citing Allan Jones, Ray Hadley etc….
One woman said that the ALP is hiding something and if you want to know the facts ask Allan Jones.
Oh pleazzzzzzzzzzzze! God help us.
johncand 2361 So Bernard Keane (who seriously supports rapid population growth) thinks that ALP candidates putting out leaflets saying they don’t support Big Australia should be accused of dog whistling. Well then the Greens and everyone else in the 70+% of people who don’t support Big Australia should be equally criticised. Just because 10% or so of people think reduced immigration is pro White Australia doesn’t mean the other 90% have to take the opposite view.
@ Scarpat
That rationale does seem to match TTH’s method of argument. I should have realised myself!
adrain @2277, you weren’t veballing me, you were verballing the ALP, get a clue.
And to think this bloke was the original Liberal Candidate for Higgins – only to be replaced by a certain Hammock user once his first run in with the Tax Office became public.
http://www.hardiegrant.com.au/Books/Books/Book.aspx?isbn=9781740669795
dee i think that from these comments may be that person votes liberal any way
i often think only liberals listen to these stations any way not being a person of the north island i stand corrected of course
Jaundiced View, it may seem you’re in my sights tonight and I really don’t mean for you to be but:
This seems to be a more articulate, more polite (merely by virtue of a lack of specificity about what constitutes the ‘lowest common denominator’) restatement of Cuppa’s earlier proposition for which he was roundly and scathingly criticised.
And if 34 of 65 vote against something does that mean:
a) a Majority voted it done
b) a Majority voted for it
I’m just not buying this Labor spin that somehow because the whole parliament wasn’t sitting, that a majority voting against it doesn’t count, despite the fact it was majority even if the whole parliament was there.
SBS
has the last of james mays series
this one is on alt energy
Tidal power currently
@ Wakefield.
That’s the crux of it isn’t it.
The opposition mantra — ‘if you’re not for us you’re agains’t us’ or — in their case it’s backward — we’re not for you thus we are against you.
Which doesn’t have to be the case — and it where they seriously fall down. The assertion that they MUST oppose is a disservice the country and the parliament.
The trouble is, if they vote for good legislation, then they will remain in the wilderness.
So they must make up lies and mislead the populace into believing that good legislation or good programs, are inherently bad.
And because the MSM hate Labor, they get all the encouragement they need. And they also get people like Truthy and JV here doing their damndest to try and make everyone believe the lies.
Frank: The Greens have another indigenous candidate in WA – a woman. I think she’s in a lower house seat, which IIRC is also unwinnable. Can’t remember her name tho.
And can anyone tell me how Essential allocate preferences for their poll?
confessions@2416
Yup, in Hasluck, which can either be retained by Sharryn Jackson, or it may go to the Libs by fellow indigineous candidateKen Wyatt.
jenauthor@2404
Have I? What, like “Squaarkk … Cocky’s water bowl has a hole in it!?”
Cud chewer @ 2409
You’re calling some one adrain – a drain?
Doesn’t TTH run his own business? Balancing the books must be interesting.
…..still waiting Psephos
@2419, obviously my fingers have their own sense of humour
Yep, JV. From what I’ve read, sweeping assertions with no proven foundation (or disproven by independent reports).
Chose to ignore the attempt at humour BTW JV. It may be cynical but find that ploy is generally used as a distraction when people don’t want to admit something.
Ah yes. Glenice Smith – thanks for that.
The Greens have next to no chance of winning Hasluck – as you say it will be either Lib or Lab that win that one.
Rewi Lyall@2412
It’s an Edward Kennedyism:
I have no problem accepting that there is a significant minority in our midst who are prejudiced and/or xenophobic. I also have no problem accepting that many of such people have missed out on formal education and other knowledge-gathering processes. Many find it difficult to expand their understanding. There is an unfortunate side to the bell-curve. Ignorance of an issue is more likely to engender a fearful response. Ignorance is more likely to allow irrational thinking patterns. Education is therefore a good.
I don’t think I’ve said anything controversial there.
What I’m annoyed about is government giving legitimacy and value to ignorant prejudice and xenophobia on the refugee issue. Part of that process in the current debate involves government pandering to such ignorance with policies that breach basic human rights standards.
Ignorance and cultural or racial prejudice is never good, and should never be given legitimacy for cheap political reasons. It’s almost glorified by some of the hacks here because it’s seems in the party’s interests. Howard made that an art form. I used to expect better from Labor.
adrian @ 2284
You are right as far as you have gone, but take it further, as many of us do, and complain directly to the ABC with specific instances of bias, quoting times and dates. I do this regularly with the ABC, and not only about news and current affairs – I have been calling for the removal of alleged Test Cricket ‘legend’ Kerry O’Keefe from the ABC airwaves for years!
My taxes pay for the drivel they sometimes produce, so I am certainly entitled to seek restitution. Whether I get it …. well, that’s another matter, but if you don’t ask, you ain’t never gonna get anything that you want.
And speak for yourself about it not ‘making you feel better’ – I relish the opportunity of having a whinge, and knowing that some anonymous ABC bureaucrat somewhere has to read my own drivel in return!
“hack” = a descriptive noun used as a put down for persons with a different political opinion to the author. Used esp when author cornered in an argument. Hopefully leaves the vernacular after election 2010
As of 12 July the UAH satellite series were showing equal warmest global day ever on ch 4 and warmest day ever on ch 5 since the sat series started.
Where’s Abbott?
I look forward to the MSM picking up on this.
Sorry, Jon – what are you waiting for?
jenauthor
Let’s have them then.
B
They will
In 2050 when the fibs and greens are reviewed as the vandals who destroyed our first attempt at an ETS
Headline on ABC website:
Does anybody know how Essential allocate preferences?
Fessions
essentially?
Here is another headline on ABC website:
Jaundiced View,
Would you then expect that those wishing to change the views of the ‘lowest common denominator’ would expend their greatest energy and resources campaigning in seats where such views are held?
Which seats are those more likely to be, inner city seats held by Labor or swinging outer metropolitan seats?
Gusface: why does that evoke imagery of that fool who jumped into the crocodile pit?!
Whats truthy been doing now?
G
Why so bitter?
LOL. They did report he was drunk. Forgiveness and all that…..
Opposition siezes ….. sweet f a
ABC reports said siezure of sweet fa in tones designed to convey crisis in govt
It means your claim of 70% was bunk, it was also non binding and doesn’t necessarily represent the view of the government as none of the ministers sit in the parliament.
Time will tell about Timor but the option of Nauru is a non starter.
confessions@2440
Of course he was drunk. You have to do the necessary training if you’re going to perform at your peak in your chosen event.
Why and explain in detail.
Leftwing ideOlogy doesn’t cut it. You actually need a real reason.
Sky can’t even handle their sport honestly. My screen on channel 503 says “Test Cricket Live” with Australia on 9/240 yet on Fox Sportsnews on 513, the ticker says the Pakis are 2/49. Given News/Sky’s record with dealing with the truth, I’m inclined to believe neither.
If Sky can’t be arsed reporting the cricket correctly, what chance of them reporting fairly on the election…
…that is rhetorical question, of course.
G
Oi thats one of my lines
Just saw Bobby Brown galivanting around
to say both howie and tone were people he could work with is total capitulation
Here’s the scenario.
1. Govt wins election
2. month one. Timor doesn’t work for any of about fifty reasons.
3. month two. Nauru signs up the UN thingie.
4. month three. Nauru high schools students get the Howie’s buildings.
5. month four. regional refugee processing centre opens on Nauru.
6. month five….
The comments on:
Asylum seekers and East Timor. The assertions (though vague) about BER and other welfare/GFC strategies and their implementation.
There’s two for starters. I could scroll back but it isn’t that important to me.
Suffice to say the comments echo the ‘party line’ and do not show independent thinking.
Roy
Was just watching it live on cricket and now you have ruined everything. Thanks a lot for nothing.
B
Why so sad?
From here on in it will be deja vu.
Did you deja vu the cricket already?
I actually thought your spelling it ideAology was quite clever
They’re at lunch — a break to watch le Tour!
(And I’m supposed to be working!)
G
I was just thinking about the impact of rising sea levels on cricket. For example, how many international cricket pitches will be under water if sea levels rise:
1m, 5m, or 70m. But wait, there’s more. What are leggies going to do with a salty wet ball?
Abbott, the Climate Crap Dr No, is taking serious risks with the cricket vote.
Rewi Lyall@2436
The answer isn’t ‘campaigning in seats’ with the most ignorance. It lies in showing strong national leadership through taking control of the agenda and explaining what you are doing and why – in other words take the ignorant to another place, or at least the more accessible of them. (Hence the PJK suggestion)
Neither is the answer to come up with rubbish policy that satisfies the ignorant where they currently ferment, and going to their electorates with it on a platter. The latter is pandership, not leadership as I’ve said before.
You won’t convince the hard-core elements who rejoice most in their prejudices, but it still needs to be done for future social cohesion as much as anything else in my view.
jv
The true curse of Howardism is that he spent ten years inculcating a sense of entitlement into the Oz pops. This is now so pervasive and is such a curse, that serious policy debate is just about dead.
Gillard was at it with the uniforms.
Abbott will lose because he has wedged himself out of the necessary lolly to out-do Gillard on the entitlement snouters. Gillard will thrash him on it.
Gusface@2446
One cannot afford to lose half one’s standard lines can one?
confessions @ 2433
It is not entirely clear from their ‘Essential Report’ how they allocate their preferences, but I think we can infer from the fact that they do not appear to ask a direct question about 2nd preferences that they must allocate these based on 2007 election preference flows.
I’d stand corrected on their methodology, but go to their website and check it out yourself.
http://www.essentialmedia.com.au/
I see that one of the Pakistan bats will be out in less than 6 runs time. They should watch Sky so that they don’t have to be anxious until their time has come.
Predeterminism lives.
You’re right! Someone should tell all the elderly naysayers who love their cricket.
Out now. Sure enough, within 6 runs. Had to happen. Poor sod did not stand a chance.
A google search on ‘allocation of preferences’ specifying the Essential website brings up a heap of links back to Possum’s blog, but nothing that reveals very much of anything.
This does seem to be a mystery. Maybe I’ll email the Essential people tomorrow so we can get some definitive answer to this.
Boerwar@2456
Yes, it now even extends to an expectation among idiots that they will be given respect for their ignorant world-view on refugees. And Gillard added fuel to that last week.
Boer — hate to say it but you’re watching a replay — they’re at lunch.
jv
The actual link to the refugee issue is that the ignoranti actually believe that refugees somehow or other get ‘more’ from the Government.
The silly twats combine jealousy with resentment.
jenauthor
You and Roy are both very cruel. There is no need for this. I was happy. Now I am sad.
The Big Ship: we cross posted. I’ve checked the methodology summation in the Essential report, and I agree it gives us nothing. I suspect, like you, that it’s done on 07 basis, but would be good if they could just say that.
confessions
There is a case to be made that not knowing everything is more interesting than knowing everything. Which is impossible anyway.
Boerwar: Shifting from the international to the local for a moment: At high tide on the Cooks River in my own area of Sydney there is already less than a metre before salt/brackish water would get onto several of the grounds where John Winston Howard would have played cricket in his youth. At Gough Whitlam park in Tempe some tides already make it a few metres inside the fence; the grounds in Earlwood and Hurlstone Park will not need much more than a metre’s rise to experience the same.
Internationally, cricket grounds in Bangladesh would mostly have to be in trouble (along with the homes and farms of 100 million plus people) with sea level rises at the lower end of the probable before 2100?
10 metres (well within rational bounds if we don’t fix things fast) would I assume lose the MCG (well at least all those dangerous asylum seekers could sail their boats straight in in that case) along with many other venues in Australia (goodbye Adelaide and Bellerive for starters), and pretty much every West Indies venue?
jenauthor
Still awaiting my ‘best of’ list of “sweeping assertions with no proven foundation (or disproven by independent reports)”. Actually that’s two lists.
Wot?!
You mean The Australian’s approach to climate science is to be replicated in all matters Boerwar?
B
or the third way
knowing nothing about everything aka Abbottism
JV You weren’t paying attention — I gave a quick answer at 2448
How’s your geography, as bad as your math?
http://toolserver.org/~geohack/geohack.php?pagename=Nauru¶ms=-0.527288_N_166.936724_E_
See where that is? That’s right nowhere near a transit route. One of the reasons Howards so called Pacific Solution was so expensive.
Who is going to run this thing TTH?
UNHCR? Not if it is on Nauru because it is not a signatory to the UN Convention on Refugees, so we would have to run it, and take ALL the genuine refugees, which going by past experience is the majority.
So a UNHCR run facility in a location central to the major transit routes. Cheaper, more humane and and better outcomes. Got it?
MM
An urgent call should go out for salt-tolerant turf. Apparently the grasses on Texel are inundated periodically by tides, and do quite well.
Having read all the comments since my final post last night, I think the pick of them was this by JV.
JV doesn’t seem to take advantage of all that available information going by some of the comments he/she makes sometimes!
Boerwar
That’s right, I forgot: “Ignorance is bliss”.
It is quite unfair for people enjoying their ignorance to have to deal with the truth, and maybe see two sides of an argument, or place themselves in the shoes of others. It would be cruel and we should leave them alone. Think of the costs of the counselling for a start.
The Sri Lankan cricket field Galle, and Bellerive?
confessions @ 2467
The Essential website states in regard to the Two Party Preferred results table:
That seems pretty clear – they don’t ask the direct 2nd preference question, only force a response from the initial ‘don’t knows’ by asking a subsidiary ‘who are you leaning towards?’ then excluding the final ‘don’t knows, so they must allocate preferences on the 2007 election actual preference flows.
This is how most opinion pollsters do it.
jenauthor,
JWH?
I had an Aunt who migrated to Australia. She did not know it at the time, but she was an economic refugee.
Anyway, she refused to learn English.
This intrigued me. When I asked her why, she said that she could read newspapers in the old country and they never made her happy. She figured that if she didn’t learn English she wouldn’t be tempted to read the newspapers and become unhappy.
She was mostly a very happy person. Sometimes when I was unhappy, partly because I was reading newspapers, I would go to her place and she was wonderfully warm and loving.
Chail cricket ground at 2144 m above sea level looks to have a bright future.
http://www.cricket.mailliw.com/archives/2005/03/04/highest-cricket-ground-in-the-world/
Now everyone has changed into black pyjamas and yellow pyjamas.
Boerwar
BTW, I saw your comment a ways back on the Chinese ship-building in the AFR. I glossed over that; I simply cant believe it is that many
jenauthor@2473
I did miss that. It’s a little disappointing I must say, because you give no examples, but just vaguely accuse me of following a party line. Which one?
I’m afraid I must disappoint you in turn and point out yet again that I have no ‘party line’ – never been a member of any of them, nor am I a fellow traveller of any either – and maintain my independence. The duopoly is poison, and the Greens have elements of the old rigid Socialist Workers’ I can’t abide – I’d last one meeting with them I reckon. I don’t know many of the parties’ policies I’m afraid. Look them up on an issue by issue basis. No, my views are my own.
So, my only hope is one day for a true PR system in the Reps (and the Senate for that matter) so that the big parties break into smaller components and rid us of the two party tyranny we now suffer, and the smaller parties get representation according to their support in the community, like northern Europe.
The Big Ship: Thanks for that. I agree, it’s the most logical conclusion.
Laocoon
I hope you are right. I did think at the time that maybe AGW is going to get here more quickly than anyone would have thought possible..
SCG is safe up to at least 10 metres….
http://homepage.mac.com/mpaineau/filechute/sydney_10m_contour.jpg
jenauthor
I think Galle would be in trouble – it took damage from the Tsunami, I seem to recall.
Robb should wear a tie
he looks a tad dodgy without one
Those fiendish Chinese…it is not a strategy to destory the Baltic Dry Index with “bulk carriers” at all…they are building arks
scorpio@2476
Well, you do sometimes tell me you disagree with my opinion, but that isn’t the same as my being misinformed on the facts. There is a rather important distinction.
Laocoon
Looks like they will have to bring back the Sunderlands if they want to land anything on Sydney Airport.
jenauthor, we might need the DNA proof for this claim
Gus
This might get me into trouble
but I have found the Shadow Treasurer’s favourite condiment…
http://perthworst.files.wordpress.com/2010/06/week111manwich.jpg?w=640&h=853
One of the guys in a yellow pyjama just went out. I have a feeling that was predetermined before tonight as well.
Sky is seriously playing with my brain.
Poor Macquarie Bank with Sydney Airport…
*crocodile tears*
Of course, Finns doesn’t care if cricket grounds go under water. He will be able to swim in for free.
Oh Dear, according to “I am now a happy chappy” Robb that “Swan was in nervous wreck when Swan delivers the economic statement today”.
Doh, i commented earlier Swannie on on steroid when he did his presser.
BW, i will let that swim past to the keeper
Finns
Yes but Robb had two flags and some big important books in his background. Swan only had two flags.
Therefore Robb was right and Swan was wrecked.
The Anarcho-Pessimist Cynics party. It has many members here, but I think you’re the branch president. Its line is that everyone except them is corrupt, reactionary, dishonest, stupid and malevolent, that everything is going to the dogs anyway, and that anything anyone tries to do about anything is wrong and will only make things worse. It’s a very popular party among the lumpen intelligentsia.
Another guy in yellow pyjamas just went out. He should have know not to try and hit the ball. It must have been in his stars. They were doing better when they were wearing their whites earlier in the night.
Finns
Robb wishes he way down upon the swanee river
Oh Dear, Swannie is in nervous wreck on Hateline with Jonesey
I have posted more on the Victorian thread.
Gus, nobody swims in my Swanee River where Mammy lives
Finns
Robb aint got a canoe
about anything
Night all.
*goes to listen to talking book per means of the nano*
Self imposed ban from Lateline. Is Swan doing an interview?
Victoria
Yep
he seems to be getting more polished and has certain adroitness
the evloution from gawky treasurer in 2008 to now is quite amazing
perhaps the most improved (kev included) of the whole ministry?
Victoria, yes, Swannie is interviewing Jonesey.
Gusface. He certainly has grown with the job. Hopefully he will maintain the momentum through the campaign.
that said
the most improved of the fibs would have to be morrison
hunt and pyne have gone backwards,if such a feat is possible
Yes, I do criticise your party. I know it hurts, but you must be strong.
‘lumpen intelligentsia’ – the latest version of “inner city elites” and “chattering classes”. Keep trying, maybe you’ll glorify ignorance one day on behalf of the party, and trivialise intelligent debate. You and Rush Limbaugh and Miranda Devine. Paddy McGuiness is out of it now.
As to cynicism, I would have thought coming on PB prepared to say anything that assists your party (or the dominant faction within it), and omit anything that doesn’t, qualifies as a fairly cynical occupation, if the truth has any value.
Kevin Rennie is off to join a conference to try and transform Journalism. Looks like a good trip, but they will have their work cut out for them I think, trying to devise a way to reform our lot.
http://development.thinkaboutit.eu/think3/editorial/winners/
Morrison has improved? Must have been off a pretty modest baseline.
Jon
what i meant was that from a poor start he is coming across as more and more polished
I dont agree with his views but do respect the reality that he can cut thru
the next best would have to be talcum
he has learnt his lesson well
My take on Morrison’s improvement is due to his unflinching stance on the AS issue. He has no reservation about the position they are taking, and is not in the slightest bit embarrassed. He is believable, whereas Hunt and Pyne repeat their lines as if contrived and rehearsed, and the message is slightly cringeworthy.
I had to laugh at that. It’s Robb who always looks like a nervous wreck..
Victoria
courage of his convictions springs to mind
there is an almost howie like intransgience about his manner
pyne and hunt have really gone nowhere
I heard Robb on the ABC, was it this morning or yesterday? He kept drifting off into irrelevant angry rants like he was a 95 yo, and Kelly had to keep steering him back to the subject. It was a bit alarming really. I don’t think they should have sent him back to the front just yet.
Swannie put on a masterful performance on Lateline tonight. Jones dipped very deeply into his bag of tricks, but to no avail.
Final score Swan 1 Jones Nil
Good to hear that Swannie did well with T Jones.
Evening bludgers. Sick with the flu. Just woke up. Just saw Andrew Robb bleating about how unconfident Wayne Swan looked, and accused him of making up stuff. The opposition is now officially using the same rhetoric people on here do when a politician they’re opposed to says/does something positive. (ie. clasping at straws)
Tony Abbott typical spewing his vitriol, cackling away with some hateful old fart.
Another day, another bit of misery from the opposition!
A comment that can be directed straight back at you. I reckon you have never made a negative comment about your party in the whole time you’ve been here.
I agree Morrison displays no compunction in blowing that whistle, is the fact that he he blows it with furious glee cause for admiration? I think not, but hey at least it’s a fight and that kinda fun.
TSOP Listening to T Abbott & Co. will probably make you more sick!
He does that an awful lot. He seems to come across as that elderly relative who thinks “everything’s gone to hell since the Asians came here” or another archaic, offensive rant. I still remember they morning of Gillard’s ascension, him on the morning news mumbling about the unions, like a grumpy old man.
2515
Psephos is in some ways more “lumpen intelligentsia” because he does not have much intelligentsia class consciousness because he is heavily focussed on the following of the ideology of the non-intelligentsia.
Jon
not admiration at all
just in politics realistically assessing the enemys strengths is as important as assessing their weaknesses
I really only admire talcum on the fibs side
I know. Being a political junkie is bad for your health! Like taking that extra hit of a drug, despite being very unwell!
All that staring at the sun has given him that look of permanently dazed and confused.
Tom, quite so.
That’s why he’s the next leader and not old Marshmallow Man from North Sydney. They’ve tried three leaders in a row from the silvertail suburbs now. Time to give the Shire a go.
There’s nothing wrong with being in the intelligentsia.
It’s rather elitist, in itself, to look down on the intelligentsia pretend their opinions don’t matter.
However, we do represent a minority. And we don’t do ourselves any favours when we call average Australians idiots.
I seem to always want the middle ground in any divide… my uncle says I am the worst person in the world for compromising and fence sitting.
Gus,
Agree with you on that one, not on Turnbull though, I think their talent pond has well and truly sprung a leak and is down to the mud on the bottom.
@ JV
Sorry for the delay in my response … your comments much earlier in the blog re: govt inability to administer etc. That has been the Lib party line constantly, and it has been disproven. That was one.
And like I said, it isn’t that important to me to go back and extract the individual items — feel free to trawl through though. I’m sure you’ll be able to find where your posts were parroting the lib ‘one liners’
pseph
yep it seems morrison has the goods
@ JV
It would be wonderful, but we can’t help ourselves, we gravitate to like-mindeds. Thus the conservatives cluster together, and the progressives do so too.
We have to live with it I think!
Wouldn’t that make it more “limpet intelligentsia”?
Jon
The ETS thingy was politically brave for turnbull, I admire the fact he was almost able to swing it
too bad it turned crazy brave
*powers down self*
I agree Scott Morrison is the likely next leader (if the Libs lose this year.)
Turnbull is electoral poison and Joe Hockey has demonstrated he is clearly not up to the task of leadership. Being wets doesn’t help them either, as the last 3 years has shown them that taking the hard line is how they keep their support solid.
JV, that was a pretty poor retort. It was nothing more than a childish “I know you are! What am I?” argument.
re: Morrison
I think he actually has found his mongrel side — and has managed to get his face on camera more than the others.
I bet this doesn’t get too much coverage. I wonder what Abbott’s response to the lady was. They don’t really say.I wonder why that would be?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/14/2953545.htm
jenauthor
I don’t think I’ve made any comment whatsoever about administering anything by this government. I’m not interested in the stimulus money carry-on Abbott & Co have been conducting, for example. So it wasn’t ‘one’, after all, unless you can be more specific.
Either that, or she will be portrayed as a “trouble-making hippy” who is protesting Abbott’s “bold plans”
Not in the least. He rates about the same as Hockey and Abbott as preferred leader. And as we saw with Abbott a move to the top position creates a new reality and a boost in support. Possum will probably do some figures on that one day.
Turnbull would be a massive headache for Labor, especially if he came with the agreed ETS. He would have something that both parties spent a great deal of time designing. It would be extremely hard for Labor to trash it.
I think JGillard and Labor would be very nervous and rushing to an election just in case Turnbull is thinking of a challenge and also before JGillard makes a mess of other policies, and keeps on jumping to the right.
gone*
A Turnbull federal Opposition leader would make the election campaign most entertaining.
I don’t call them idiots, I just worry that they are often unaware — thus they willingly accept propaganda to easily.
I DO think that politicians underestimate the intelligence of the electorate as a whole.
The childish advertising from the Libs so far is a case in point. It aims at the lowest common denominator. You just have to listen to JWH’s former adviser Graham Whateverhisnameis when he is on SKY’s Agenda. He makes these childish little comments (and giggles at them as if they are clever).
TP
Two possible options
1. mal becomes leader when JG calls election
2..mal waits for morrison to challenge and win after electoral defeat and pounces 2012
According to Shamaham on What The Papers Say -0 Gillard has held an Election Strategy meeting and is predicting the Election being held on the 28th august or mid September.
I am sure it was your comments I was responding to because I was starting to feel gulty that I had singled your comments out. I’ll try to trawl back and find the references, but I need time — I am doing our monthly invoices, chatting here, and channel flicking between cricket and le Tour.
To be honest. I would love someone like Turnbull to be opposition leader. It would be nice if the national debate was far more cerebral than it is now. Also, if we were to have a Liberal government, I would prefer it to be under someone like Turnbull, who actually appears to have a soul.
Unfortunately for Turnbull, his poison is with the right. Even if he managed to get the leadership back, he would receive weak support from the conservatives. While they will still support him over Labor, their support would be limited to the ballot. The Liberal party will likely be slightly fractured under him, which will just leave an opening for another hardliner to topple him (being unable to command total respect is a mortal sin in the Lib party.)
He also has difficulty connecting with average Australians, who don’t care about right/left and see him as an out of touch silver-spooner. As I said, I don’t mind the guy (there are far worse) but I doubt he’ll ever be Lib leader again, let alone get elected PM.
frank
delroy?
Where does he get these amazing clairvoyant skills?
Looks like Antony Green is going to be a busy fellow from here to the election.
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2010/07/how-to-vote-guide.html
TSOP
Why do you think he is not lazarus with a triple bypass material?
more the souffle?
Gusface@2556
Yup- it was the nightly mouithpiece from the OO who mentioned tyhat Shamaham will be in the paper weaving his bull- I mean magic
I wish delroy would let me on again
jenauthor@2554
Yes, well I think you are confusing me with some party-line type.
The Pakistanis are falling like tenpins!
5 for 90 odd.
Gusface.
Turnbull is the soufflé for sure.
Sadly, it’s people like Abbott who are likely to be the Lazarus.
I could be wrong though. Politics is precedents. It’s just the Libs tend to be more forgiving to their hardliners than their softies.
Not surprising. Half their team resigns every 10 minutes.
God, even the Windies were putting up a better fight than they were last summer, despite the former being in terminal shape.
The conservatives don’t really respect consensus (read someone who holds the middle ground).
They like the illusion of power and those who carry that mongrel gene always come to the fore.
JWH. TA. and now Scott Morrison. I mean, a party that celebrates people like Tuckey surely don’t understand what the term consensus means!
TSOP
I’d ideally like a Victorian or someone not from NSW to lead the Liberal Party.
They’ve had it since Peacock for crying out loud!
Why must the Libs have to have leaders from NSW????
I want Bruce Billson.
I’d prefer Turnbull over Morrison.
Bilson will need to find some ‘inner mongrel’ Glen.
Glen, NSW have had the leadership since Downer actually. however, if NSW wanna claim Downer as one of their own, they’re welcome to him!
I agree that The Sydney elite has had a bit too much influence of the Libs. I realise NSW has the most seats, but still, Labor is capable of having leaders from all over the place – except SA!
Ellis for PM! 
Yeah he’s too nice a of a person for politics.
So we end up with leaders like Tone and those waiting in the wings like Morrison.
Hurray!
Ross Gittens doesn’t seem to be too smitten by the new Prime Minister. I doesn’t look too likely “he’ll” be giving the thumbs up to a Labor victory at the election going by this piece.
I wouldn’t mind so much, if he gave similar critical analysis to the alternative. No-one else seems prepared to do so either, more’s the pity.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/show-us-your-ticker-gillard-before-you-force-us-to-vote-20100713-109ch.html
It’s what happens when a party values mongrel over intelligence, Glen.
It’s kinda why Labor’s current front bench is so far ahead of the coalition.
the ahem newspoll coming soon will be tres interesting
53-47 is my tip
scorpio
Gittins channels me on a regular basis. Today was no exception on most points. Eerie.
Ummm Albo, Emo, Tanner, Bowie are all bully boys too you know Jen…
The reason Labor’s front bench is better is because they have an average age (under 60).
Glen
albo yes
the others
LOL
Gittens totally missed the point of her speech — she was deliberately connecting with all those average voters who feel powerless out there.
She was contrasting herself with both Rudd — who didn’t appear to connect in the end (not sure if it was true, but that is the impression) and the swaggering TA, who talks AT the electorate and acts as though aggression equals power.
Albo is supposed to be atack dog — its his job (Chris Pyne is supposed to be yours and he fails dismally — all he can do is get himself kicked out of QT)
Tanner is one of the most intelligent pollies I’ve ever come across. Emo has humor and wit on his side — its what makes his targets so uncomfortable! Talented people all.
What of that other attack dog Bowie?
jenauthor@2578
But sounds and acts like a yapping poodle.
This post on LP explains in a slightly different way what I was trying to say yesterday in response to a number of posters on PB that don’t seem to understand the different support levels of moderate/progressive voters in Queensland.
They are more correctly classified as “conservatives” more than anything and are very hard to keep on board.
http://networkedblogs.com/5Nq4x
Ummmm poodles are intelligent dogs. So why would Pyne be a poodle Frank???
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4zV4pJ8MwM
Bowie?
j/v
” I’m afraid I must disappoint you in turn and point out yet again that I have no ‘party line’ –”
yea , you protest so too much , just like all intelegentsia fairy floss closet Greens too iltellectualy scared to come out of closets
your constant but false anti Labor rants , and your pro Greens positions fool no one ,
well maybe except your self
jen
albo isnt an attack dog,he is THe attack dog
Chris Bowen…
I thought Pyne’s job was to complain…
Poodles are intelligent, but if not handled well and schooled properly, they can become quite neurotic. Sound like anyone you know?
TSOP
in a irritatingly falsetto tone
tokyo rose gone wrong?
PJK doesn’t like Blanche’s new book.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/keating-lets-fly-i-carried-you-bob-20100715-10bb0.html
The Coalition realise there is low hanging fruit just waiting in Qld to be picked. It is up to the hard heads of the ALP to realise just what is needed to retain these seats and pick up the Lib marginals here to make up for any shortfall elsewhere.
They lose their own marginals and fail to pick up the likes of Dickson etc and lose seats in the western suburbs of Sydney and WA and Abbott is the next PM.
Just saying!
Now off to bed.
I love Chris Bowen but he remind me of a budgerigar!
He, too, is very intelligent.
The reason I like QT so much is because it is great theatre. They all play a role.
The only time we saw real honesty there in recent times was when Rudd was answering a question from one of the independents. He could afford to be honest and fair — the independents were no threat.
“The Manager of Opposition Business will resume his seat…No…No…The Manager of Opposition Business will resume his seat…He knows he cannot debate a point of order…There is no point of order…The Prime Minister has the call…The Manager of Opposition Business will resume his seat…The Manager of Opposition Business will resume his seat…The Manager of Opposition Business will remove himself from the chamber for 24 hours under standing order 94A”
Poor Henry Jenkins
Some days Harry’s frustration was so evident, I felt sorry for him.
Good grief, is this gonna be Kev and Julia in 30 years time?
Must be like Groundhog Day for Harry Jenkins…
Sad thing about Pyney, is besides his adamant anti-drug, pro-life positions he is actually quite moderate.
I actually believe the allegation he only chose the Libs because of wear he lives.
Yep he’d fit in well in the ALP.
As would Kevin Rudd in the Liberals.
If true — it’s sad that someone’s political ambitions are more important than the values held by the party.
What can I say when a ‘gift ‘ is so well wrapped ….and its all just for j/v
jenauthor
Posted Thursday, July 15, 2010 at 12:18 am | Permalink
“Poodles are intelligent, but if not handled well and schooled properly, they can become quite neurotic. ”
poodles j/v
*powers down self*
W.
T.
F.
Glen maybe pyney and mal in labor but kev has morals
Cricket score — 8 for 129 … another sad thing
Meanwhile via Someone’s ABC:
I’m off — this blog has become the ultimate time-waster/procrastination tool for me.
LL interview by tony Jones with Swannie is a must see , for those wanting econamic facts
Swan exposed both Liberals and Greens absolutes nonsense on RSPT vs MRRT , and foolish one liner claims of mining boom being only cause of oz escape th GFC and for Budget in surplus in 3 years….based on fact…Treasury current & f’ward estimates
what was musing listening to Swan’s nuances was Miners made a big blue in later negagiations stage supplyin forward export volumes & f’ward expect & contract prices….they were lower than Treasury told Swan..so then treasury cheked them against ABR and against actual f’wd contracts requested to confirm , so then Govt had more room to move than silly Miners realized
so govt wanted 12 billion inadvance as tops ,a nd got in deeling argy67 bargy 10.5 bilion…good Labor screwing result seeing its ALL bonus taxes we never got bfore
Keating on the OO re The Book:
Keating’s Letter to Bob:
http://resources.news.com.au/files/2010/07/14/1225891/831972-100715-keating.pdf
reading PK’s letter and seeing Hawke/Blanche interview with Red Ted this week , there seems a disconnect VS what OO serialized as extracts of Blanche book…maybe OO chery picked , and out of context or without full context
2nd issue is PK’s letter being publishd , not sure if delib or what
but then Blanch did say Hawkie and PK were like 2 bulls in th one chicken pen , and there was reely only room for one , a pity it is so public
latest Mumbling on Bellwether seats.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/my_kingdom_for_a_bellwether/
Lindsay Tanner on Labor’s Reforms and Achievements.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/change-and-its-all-been-for-the-good-20100714-10b23.html
Suck that up Naysayers.
Shamaham on when the Election will be called.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/bookies-defied-poll-pushed-back/story-e6frgczf-1225891827989
Hmmm, i hope this got nothing to do with:
I told you i need DNA proof.
I am so out of the loop.
Australia is playing a test match against Pakistan…
at Lords.
I think Cricket Australia’s PR staff are on holidays.
Not really a Test Match though. Looks like it will be over in 2.5 days.
Everyone keep your eyes peeled for a Keating interview.
Bernie Fraser with some plain truths on both the MRRT “sell out” and Tony Abbott’s even worse counter position. Fraser confirms my worst fears about the MRRT – he makes no reference to the arrangements for existing projects making it any better:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/bernie-takes-aim-at-gillard-20100714-10b8l.html
Looks like the MRRT was a win for everyone, not just the billionaires, but the struggling millionaires too. Only the rest of us were losers.
Kelly O’Dwyer on Agenda. 5 seconds in and all she can do is sprout the Libs’ line de jour.
AS is going to be the only issue that they will run with. Nasty!
The cat is out of the bag – the MRRT backdown will cost $7.5 billion, not $1.5 billion.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/mining-tax-backflip-to-cost-billions-20100714-10b4p.html
So now Gillard looks dishonest as well as weak. All to be seen to get a quick deal. Or was it to appease those political geniuses in the AWU faction and the CFMEU?
Socrates
On those numbers then, the Libs’ position represents a loss to revenue of 7.5 + 10.5 = $18b.
Soc
Ru pointed out in the updated estimates that it is closer to a1.5B shortfall
Still pretty bloody good considering there wasnt anything before
Wouldnt you agree?
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/latest-spin-fails-to-hide-emperors-con-job-20100714-10b6w.html
Labor’s weakest link, Swannie caught telling fibs
We got SCREWED
I thought we’d known for a week or more that it was revised commodity prices that are responsible for the small difference between the old and new mining taxes.
rosa
Im happy for you
but too much information anyways
Yep I pointed out in another fredz(while i was banned none the less) that Gillard had actually dropped revenue intake by the order of $7.5 Billion.
The Labor hacks attacked me as they usually do and said no the loss was only $1.5 Billion.
See what Labor did was they changed the metal prices in their new calculation, rather than the price they originally used just weeks earlier. This was a good bit of book cooking because it made it look like that the fall in the tax windfall was minimal and only down $1.5 Bill when the reality is that Kev’s GBNT adjusted for the new metal prices would have brought in an extra $7.5 Billion.
@dovif/2623, sounds like people in the comments in that article disagree, and I also, would you have no tax at all? and rather call it a big backflip instead? Now Jessica (author of the article) couldn’t put more spin then she already did, with the head line of “Latest Spin, Con Job”.
Was she also confusing with Conroy ?
Rudd to the UN?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/15/2954124.htm
Brisoz
The very ones damning this tax not going far enough are the very ones who OPPOSED it
Remember “When we get in we will change everything”? It’s not the end just the beginning
The MRRT is a politicial fix. it will be revisted in 5 years time when extra revenue is needed for health and the ageing population. It will happen. Under the Liberals there is zero revenue. More importantly I can’t wait for Keating’s book to come out for some reason I find his position to be more truthful.
I know, if you don’t like the new mining tax deal put Tone in and he will scrap it completely, just like the ETS. Perfect solution.
I never said Tony Abbott was better. But that sort of comparison is lowest common demoninator politics. Gillard still gave away $7.5 billion in 3 days of negotiations, even though a new tax had been foreshadowed in the Henry Review, and discussions had been held with the miners during the inquiry. Every other taxpayer is a loser for that $7.5 billion – we either have to pay more tax now, or get less services. Commodity prices meant we would have gotten the $6 billion anyway; it wasn’t the government’s doing.
@Gary/2632, Hopefully tone will get replaced before then, if the Liberals MP’s are smart enough.
Evans’ own goal getting lots of replays. The economerati now yacking about how Gillard’s deal ‘cost’ $7.5billion. Still, another own goal.
For a bit of light relief, the LNP has sacked their candidate for Rudd’s electorate, thinking that Rudd is going to pull the pin at the 11th hour, as well he might.
They might actually improve their candidate. Inter alia, the old one is an advocate for getting rid of the age pension.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/lnp-already-on-ropes-in-griffith-as-candidate-dumped/story-e6freoof-1225891805083
Off to do some work. Grrrr. Looks like I’ll be voting Green.
Hawke is right however, Keatings obvious bitterness is not a endearing characteristic.
The man achieved a lot and has led a privileged and influential life, bitterness is these circumstances is IMHO, self indulgent.
No, it’s reality. You have a choice and one of the choices is NOT the tax option Rudd put up. So if you don’t like it put Tone or put JG in or vote informal but forget about the other option for this election at least.
With a preference to one of the major parties. Which one?
Politically, not an own goal. Was the mining tax really that popular? I thought it was causing Labor trouble. Was it or wasn’t it?
It’s funny. One of the loudest shouters of the “Mining tax is too nice on miners, Labor has failed!!1!” message was Bob Brown, who we all know was very vocal in support of it when it was proposed, and put partisan politics aside to back up a PM who was under heavy fire from all sectors of society because of the proposal…
Oh wait. No he didn’t. He stood at the sideline with his mouth sealed shut, giggling like a child at the ALP being torn to shreds, knowing that either the ALP will be destroyed, or they’ll back down from the position (after which he can call them “sellouts.”)
Greens are the only party that care, my ass.
If $12b was a Great Big New Tax what would $25b have been?
TSOP
Donkeys are all the greens are good at looking after it seems
Already we are getting a reprise of the government’s Last Chance Saloon defence from its drones. Again, variations on the theme “But, but, the opposition are even worse than us.”
Of course they are, marginally, but this does not entitle Labor to support. For the party to assume that, after dropping or failing on all the big issues, and moving further and further to the right, is the ultimate in arrogance.
That will help their primary vote figure, but there aren’t many places in the country you can vote 2PP for a Green.
Now there would have been an own goal.
Are you guys for real?
Abbott wants’ NO MRRT so that means $0 tax intake!
I guess all you guys who are now crying about how much the government ‘lost’ (ignoring that fact that they had not collected any tax to loose in the first place), were supporters of the original tax proposal and Kevin Rudd…?
You guys had better join Sarah Hanson Young back at 1st Year Uni politics debates. “If a dick head speaks in a forest and there’s no other people around, do they know that they’re talking shit?”
Funniest thing I’ve read here in ages.
Not even first year was that excruciating
Actually, uni politics was fun. It’s your chance to be an idealist.
Then you leave and get hit by the reality of the real world. (Well some of us)
Of course not. It means we should put the worse government in we can.
The fact is if we are going to vote, one way or another you’re going to have to choose between the major parties. If you choose to put what you deem to be the worst party out of the two majors, into government you deserve everything you get. Go to it.
“bitterness is these circumstances is IMHO, self indulgent.”
Agree – get off the grass PJK on the bitterness front. Truthfulness is another story altogether.
Re MRRT the miners by signing up to this deal have actually taken on more tax risk. there is much greater risk that the tax will increase in the future. for example once olympic dam is up and running the SA state govt will be unable to risk increasing royalties etc and you can see additional commodities coming into the next and concessions going. at budget time you can see it they will jack up the mining tax and give some small personal tax cuts etc
Good morning bludgers. I don’t run that line. I think Labor deserves the support of the electorate on merit, on the basis that its decisions in government have been by-and-large the right ones and to the benefit of the Australian people.
] interview by tony Jones with Swannie is a must see , for those wanting economic facts
Swan exposed both Liberals and Greens absolutes nonsense on RSPT vs MRRT , and foolish one liner claims of mining boom being only cause of oz escape th GFC and for Budget in surplus in 3 years….based on fact…Treasury current & f’ward estimates
what was musing listening to Swan’s nuances was Miners made a big blue in later negotiations stage supplyin forward export volumes & f’ward expect & contract prices….they were lower than Treasury told Swan..so then treasury checked them against ABR and against actual f’wd contracts requested to confirm , so then Govt had more room to move than silly Miners realized
so govt wanted 12 billion inadvance as tops ,a nd got in deeling argy67 bargy 10.5 bilion…good Labor screwing result seeing its ALL bonus taxes we never got ]
[Off to do some work. Grrrr. Looks like I’ll be voting Green [ Socretas}
Dear
Socretas. Do you think Kevin would of even got this past this stage before the election NO doubt very much he would not its a bit like the ETS negotiation also like a wage claim , you know how they work ask more than you expect to get.
these things must be worked out also a smaller example the sale of a house sold it 10 th below what was ask expected to sell it 5000 below but a cash buyer came along and ended up i front, could bank money etc interest , may have waited a years to get what was ask so would of missed out.
In the long run this is what happens with everything.
Also you dont know who reads here from now on it should be on the positive side after all thats Julia’s main game at the moment to kick goals etc.
So hope you reconsider.
Just think with abbott you would have nothing, in-fact less and you would and we would pay more tax as he wanted to let the miners off more taxes.
Just think one day i am certain there will be NO pension because our children will not be willing to pay for people aged pension unless they contribute to it themselves.
@Gary/2640,
Are you sure the people didn’t want it, or was it the media that Portrade it that way?
I think you’ve got it in one, although I must say I still have a lot of time for KR. He did a lot of good.
On Twitter a little earlier, NSW Opposition Leader Barry O’Farrell accidentally tweeted the following:
I get the feeling your perception is skewed by your “jaundiced view.” The government’s message has been mainly positive, trying to keep in control of the narrative. Sure, criticisms have been made of Abbott and co, and in the campaign there will be shots fired at Abbott. But that does not hold a candle to the mudstorm that is fired the way of the government by the coalition.
Not to mention the fact that it is how our system works. You essentially have a choice of two people for PM. The fact that the opposition leader presents a big risk does indeed mean the government should be returned, as the incumbent hasn’t wrecked the country. As cynical as that sounds, that is politics.
An article from the West that can be circulated to counter the hysteria out there about what assistance refugees get.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/7585584/70m-to-help-refugees-settle/
That link should be http://bit.ly/dz9kTW
The media couldn’t stop people voting for Rudd last election and boy did they try. Whatever the reason though the fact was that that tax was not as popular as I thought it would be. There is no good crying over it now.
Gary, by your logic, it doesn’t matter how far the two majors move to the rabid right pandering to minority idiots, we should still vote for the least abhorrent of the two.
That may suit you duopoly supporters, but it doesn’t suit me. For a once principled party to have to resort to ‘our bucket of excrement is not as obnoxious as their bucket of excrement’ should be a shameful thing for all supporters.
Charming.
Is it true that it was Latika Bourke who overheard Chris Evans? If so why would anyone risk going “deeply off the record” with her?
here here perhpas its time to post all the policies that actually got through the senate
How any one could say the others are just marginal must of been in some other planet for three years or head in the sand.
Wake you you [ } just think it through if the one and only policy you can tink of is the NO recession the rest of the world had we did not to me they should get 70 percent primary vote but then thats me.
the other that comes to mind is gradually reforming education and health for god sake i cannot beleive what i read sometimes
gee i hope a labor person did not say that above phes
cannot be bothered tacking it back
But then of course some people sit on one policy like for example the ets and expect it to be as they wanted, thats not real life is it. We cannot have what we want everyday of the week we can only have what is reasonable and good for every one
and thats what labor have delivered in the last three years and if we had not had a hostile senate and other things ??? we all understand we may we could of had a perfect score,.
As opposed to moving to the left pandering to even smaller ratio of minority “idiots”?
Consistency JV, consistency.
JV, and the solution is voting for the party that says “the two major parties are big buckets of excrement so vote for us instead.”
You don’t see the irony?
Because “off the record” is honoured by any journalist who wants to keep their career.
Going by her Twitter page, no. She claims it was someone else who heard the comments and that Evans was unaware the journalist was present.
Going to O’Farrel’s tweet… is it true Labor are struggling to get candidates?
I just don’t get your argument. You have to make a decision. You either help put in a party that has moved 1 step to the right or a party that has moved 3 steps to the right. If you hate parties that are of the right why would you help the party that is 3 steps to the right. I’m not talking about your primary vote here I’m talking about your preferences, given that if you record a vote, you have to preference.
TSOP is quite correct. A large chunk of the Greens vote are protest voters but I’m sure the Greens are quite happy to receive those votes.
That would be referring to the LNP wouldn’t it?
Socrates:
That’s a bit disingenuous, isn’t it? There were two points of view being put forth during the RSPT debate:
1. Can’t have it at all – too harmful to the industry.
2. Good idea – mining companies ought to pay more.
Even at the point of negotiation, argument 1 was leading by a fair way. That a negotiation was struck at all was a fair achievement, given the position of the mining companies was, as always, that they didn’t want to give up anything at all.
And more importantly, there was no argument 3 – We need the tax, and it needs to be this big, or there’s no point to it. That argument was never put forth, and we’re only hearing it now because it’s politically convenient to have it aired.
Apparently, the case for opposing it goes: I didn’t want it, I’m not happy you got it, and where’s the rest of my money by the way?
GhostWhoVotes – cheers mate. Abbott’s big noting about Eden Monaro being a winner for him doesn’t sound so hot now, does it.
What ‘timetable’ is he referring to?
But that’s not what Labor says, and it’s not what Labor supporters say. This is a construction of your own invention. Show me any example of where Labor has said: “Our policy is bad, but theirs is worse.”
Sky referred to the person as a “young radio journalist”, so I just assumed it was her.
I think he’s referring to the Libs. They are still finalising preselections in key NSW seats.
Psephos, JV is complaining because some people on here (y’know this blog which is apparently the centre of the political universe) use the fear of an Abbott government as motivation to fight to get Labor re-elected.
Because it doesn’t fit snugly into the Labor=Liberal=bad equation, it’s considered “negative”
The election timetable?
Psephos@2652
Is that the best the dominant faction can come up with for 15 July? Cardinal platitudes like that?
If the Coalition are indeed starving for candidates, perhaps that is because perspective candidates don’t want their fingerprints on the Abbott trainwreck
I’d rather get in now if I were thinking of becoming a Lib politician. You’d have very little competition for a front bench position which would give you a foot in the door for a ministerial spot when they finally win government.
There is only one first order issue facing Australia right now.
The UAH satellite temps climbed from the 12th to the 13th July making 13 July the hottest day ever, according to the satellite measurers. This used to be the cooler’s favoured technique for measuring earth’s temperatures. Not any more. The deniers are off looking for some other minor point upon which to hang their ignorance.
Make no mistake about it. Abbott is a denier. The only time he has meant anything on climate change is when he said climate change is absolute crap. All Abbott’s many other many positions on AGW are electoral positions. They are not his intellectual positions.
Even if Abbott finally gets it, Abbott’s parliamentary party is dominated by deniers. He owes his position to the deniers. These are people who don’t want to do anything real about climate action – so they have a climate sop policy, the so-called ‘action plan’. The action plan avoids reduction in emissions. Its action items are simply not credible to anyone. They are a cruel sham. It is the spinning the wheels plan. Its aim is to ensure that when the wheels stop spinning we will still be in the same place.
If the Greens were a credible force in the lower house I would vote for them in the lower house because they are the only party with an unequivocal position on AGW. But the are not a credible force and I don’t expect them to be a credible force in my lifetime.
Labor is actually convinced that AGW is real. They just couldn’t get anything useful past the current Senate.
So, it’s the Greens in the Senate and Labor in the House – and, if he voting goes right, a negotiated AGW response between Labor in the House and the Greens in the Senate during the next term.
Any of the other issues – Rudd getting the sack, Gillard’s qualities, asylum seekers, cost of living, the mining tax, employment rates, the GFC, education, health, the economy, all other environmental issues, water and so on, are all second order issues.
They are second order issues because if we don’t get AGW right it will rip right through all our dreams for the rest.
As I’ve said before, I don’t belong to a faction.
I can’t come up with anything better than the truth, sorry.
Could you provide a source for this please?
Psephos
Go to google search type in ‘Roger Pielke Jr Warmest Day ever’ (which refers to a previous peak temp, not the current one).
The first para under the graph provides a link to the UAH site. Ch 4 is the near earth temps, that is to say the temps we experience. Ch 5 is the next bit of sky up.
Psephos
Of course the party can’t officially say that. Although negative campaigning on the LNP is part of the same line in the end. There are several party drones here regularly devolving down to the level of repeating that the choice is the LNP which is worse, in response to those who are disappointed in the government’s failings including policy inaction and its move to the right. An example is here:
To Speak of Pebbles@2677
He would be talking about the Libs. They still have a few to select in nsw, I think and they’d be worried about the timetable of the election because earlier this week some in the Libs were saying the election shouldn’t be in August and that Julia should wait.
Said she was rushing it whereas a couple of weeks ago Hockey was saying that it would be called within a couple of days.
Nice to get the inside word tho.
This is a classic case of counting chickens before they’re hatched. We never had the new services in the first place.
Sorry Socrates, but please explain how you can lose revenue and services you never had?
The new mining tax is revenue neutral to the Budget. No tax, no goodies, no “we either have to pay more tax, or get less services”.
It’s the same with “business”. They kept their mouths shut on the RSPT, hoping for a Labor implosion over it. Then when they’re company tax reduction was lowered to 1% (instead of 2%) they wailed like banshees, renting their garments and tearing out their hair at the unfairness of it all.
Ditto the small, independent “Solo Man” miners, brave, independent entrpeneurs, armed with rock hammers and a dream, who scoffed at government handouts as socialist tampering with their free spirits. As soon as they lost their exploration kickbacks, they screamed blue, bloody murder too.
The miners never had their exploration kickbacks. “Business” never stood up for the company tazx reduction. So they all lost those sweeteners. Too late to whinge now.
well sound funny to me, doubt that very much and who is retiring else where these seats where because of members leaving below
Two great candidates Johnathan Jackson[denison] and Mr. Lyons ( geoff i think) [bass]
who else besides Mr tanner are going any way.
i seem to recall a large amount of liberals who have or who are leaving
besides the ones that have left in the last three years and the one going now
minchin the lady from melbourne ( had the vote for the leadership but was not there)
is that lady that abbott was walking around with yesterday is she eden manaro
would love to have known what that lady at the stall was saying to him she did not look happy and just who was he buying the lavender bush for.m
Boerwar – it’s a dream I hold which I want fulfilled. I hope it will be explained and sold well to all the doubters in the community and that Julia and Bob sit down together and see it through the senate.
JV, I’m sure you understand the difference between negative campaigning (which says “Abbott is bad”) and what your are accusing Labor of (which is saying “We are bad but Abbott is worse”). Labor never says that, I never say that, the Pepples post you refer to doesn’t say that. So it’s still up to you to substantiate this allegation.
I won’t coment further on the MRRT, though I haven’t changed my opinion.
Another topic – education: this piece is on university plagiarism at the NY Times:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/13/opinion/13tue4.html?src=me&ref=general
The problem is just as endemic in Australian universities as in US ones. At Adelaide Uni the “solution” has been to take away the power to fail students for plagiarism from lecturers and give it to administrators (who rarely fail fee paying students!). We churn out more graduates than every before, with less scrutiny of their quality than ever before.
The NY Times article points out this isn’t just a problem with ethics. The plagiarising students don’t learn the skills, making their degrees worthless. Anyone can cut and paste – it doesn’t make Julie Bishop a genius.
So what is the moral of the story? For quality education, internet access is NOT the prime ingredient. The key is teaching time, with quality teachers. I hope some relevant policy people ponder this.
I fear the quality of pass degrees in Australia has already declined to the point where they no longer automatically guarantee the person is employable.
Boerwar, the chart for sea-surface temps at that website actually says that 13 July was cooler than the same day last year. At what altitude was it the hottest day ever?
But that is the choice you have when it comes time to vote. What is your point?
jv likes to kick the “party drones”, Labor hacks” can for all its worth. It means you don’t have to argue a good sound case for or against anything.
Socrates, I usually vote Green first, and at this election there are good reasons for voting for them. The problem though is their unconscionable behaviour over the ETS. It isn’t just the ETS itself, it was their role in establishing the Senate committee that then opened the doors to the climate deniers. And then the delay in the whole process, the oxygen given to the climate deniers and friends like Bolt and the subsequent confusion about climate science and the decline in public support for anything smacking of altruism – all of these the Greens must take some responsibility for. Now they might have the BOP after the election but now they will have to wait years for public opinion to reset itself.
may be it should of been bought in after the election, but i realy think kevin and other s thought this would be welcome well in a lot ways it was only the commentators that where negative and those immediately effected which the workers and wives etc i can understand re worry about their jobs founded or unfounded.
I still think if kevin was there it would still be in limbo as i did not see him budging perhaps now its been put off the radar and the positives are there for every one to see That was a great achievement by Julia in just a week.
I dont really care how it turned out as long as it put away for now.
get over it i say and move on to the next POSITIVE some people are never happy though.
we move on and do the next thing i be timor works out too.
Psephos
Don’t ask me why but you have to read it upside down.
chud chewer you must be the most sensible green i know
good on ya
I have to have a go at this as well. It’s not arrogance, it’s practical. There are two factors that matter here:
1. It’s the Coalition that are pulling us further to the right. If they moderated some of their policies, Labor would have to shift left to accommodate. It would be the only option if they wanted to differentiate themselves. If the Coalition abandon the soft right territory in order to move to the hard right, those soft right votes are there to be picked up. It’s politically necessary to do so.
2. Apparently it’s what the people want. The Coalition aren’t that far off winning 50% of the vote. That’s nearly 50% of people out there who are comfortable enough with their approach and philosophy to vote or preference it over Labor. What would you expect Labor to do under those circumstances?
Of course, it’s probably factor 2 that’s driving factor 1. In which case what we need are better informed people. The media being the conduit between policy and people, I’d be pointing my finger there – if it wasn’t going to brand me as some sort of paranoiac, that is.
psephos
If you move the bar across the various dates it tells you automatically the difference between this day and the same day last year.
Vindication of Laocoon’s decision to stick to communications technologies that he knows how to use…now in the good old days, a Liberal leader would limit himself to purple dyed vellum
I must say O’Farrell’s twitter makes no sense whether he is referring to Labor or Liberal candidates, or to Labor or Liberal internal polling. Neither party shows its prospective candidates internal polling, and neither party sets its pre-selection timetables according to polls. If the NSW Libs are struggling to find candidates, it’s because (a) not many people really think they’re going to win the key marginals, and (b) their factional civil war has reduced the poll of available candidates to a bunch of unelectable religious crazies.
And if you go to Ch 5 – which tends for some reason and by some people to be the preferred channel you can click in the record temps box and you can then compare the day’s temp with the record temp for that day.
Gary, jv bags any opinion unless it comes from a green. I asked jv yesterday if he’d/she’d ever made a negative comment about green policy or strategy on this site. No response that I can recall. IMO any poster here who cannot mention a negative concerning their own side is truly a hack. jv meets that description.
Yes, and at sea-level, the most recent data is for 13 July, and 13 July 2010 was cooler than 13 July 2008 and 2009. So where is this “hottest day ever” coming from?
you must of been talking to my daughter who is a grade three teacher and beyond.
who thought are also there is not enough playing time, play is education whether it be outside kicking a football ( fine motor skills) on a swing, playing in dirt and you find out touch taste notice plants etc. she goes on about it all the time.
she says of course computers are very necessary these days but to much time spend in front does NOT make a rounded person.
i may add she is a great teacher that wishes to get out she now feels to much is expected of teachers re the whole life experience
and for people who think teachers do not work hard she leaves home around 7.30 comes home 5.30 also runns all the junior sport.
no wonder they are burnt out.
Psephos
I suspect O’Farrell is causally connecting various dots that probably are actually not connected (other than in his mind)
However, what his tweet communicates is that these various dots exist – tight timetable; struggle to get candidates; a major change in polls post-Gillard (negative for Liberals)
And it makes no sense for this to be the hottest July ever, because we are at the bottom of the 11-year solar energy output cycle. It should be cooler now than it was a few years ago, and cooler than it will be a few years from now.
No, it isn’t, as much as you’d like to think so.
Psephos
You are being disingenuous again – you know exactly what I’m saying. Whenever those critical of the government’s drift to the right and the policy failures point these things out, there are party loyalists who revert to the ‘But look at the Libs’ or ‘who’s your last preference gonna be’ line, rather than extol the virtues of, say, the genius of the continued dumping of the ETS, or the pandering to prejudice, or the merits for the people of the 7.5B concession to the miners against Treasury’s advice.
As Gary just did at 2694.
P
If you read the white text in the bottom of the box for that date it tells you .21 degrees F hotter than this day than the same day last year even though the number is bigger. You do need to read it ‘backwards’ as you would with negative values, that is minus 13 is ‘hotter’ than minus 14. I am not sure why they have chosen to represent their data in this fashion.
This made me feel a bit better about being able to disown Scott Morrison, as not “really” from Sydney. Interesting economic force for the Shire though…
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/property/dire-road-links-ensure-shires-the-place-where-property-prices-stall/story-e6frg9gx-1225891743997
Of course, if there were higher population growth rates, that *might* get house prices moving…
Boerwar
In case you didn’t notice we have just come out of the largest El Nino since 1997/8. This caused a spike in temperatures for example as measured in the troposphere by UAH Aqua satellites.
We are now headed into what looks like a deep La Nina in the Pacific. (La Nina = <0.5C.- scroll down to Model Projections for Enso from June 2010.
http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt?open=512&objID=945&PageID=0&cached=true&mode=2&userID=5665
Colder global temperature anomolies are coming (there is a lag of about 3 months between onset of Enso conditions and global temperatures).
Despite the recent warmer anomolies the UAH temperature trend since 2001 is still flat.
Psephos
Nothing absolutely determines our temperature. Their are various influences. AGW will mask some influences to some extent for some of the time – making cooling trends less cool than they would have been otherwise.
OTOH, AGW will have synergy with other influences and will make hot influencing result in hotter temps than otherwise.
That’s right. So the true extent of AGW is being obscured by minimal solar activity. Despite that, we are getting higher temperatures than ever before. That’s why we need effective action now, not negative action as ALP & Liberal’s plans were.
JV, yes, I do know what you’re saying, and I think you’re wrong. I don’t accept your characterisation of Labor’s policy choices as a “drift to the right.” You use the expressions “left” and “right” to mean simply “things I like” and “things I don’t like.” There’s nothing “left” or “right” about most of these decisions. For example, Labor did not “dump” the ETS – your party joined up with the climate denialists to defeat it in the Senate. It was your party that made common cause with Barnaby Joyce – how’s that for a drift to the right?
Socrates 2692
You are right as I have seen it with my own eyes with what is happening in Universities. The beaurecrats (admin and academic ones) run the show to the detriment of all, except themselves.
A lot of waste of money too with empire building.
Geoff
I agree with everything you have said. I would add that 2001 to 2010 does not provide you with a valid trend. The valid trends do show that she’s cookin’.
The reason I raised the hottest daily temp issue is not because I think an isolated bit of data for one day is significant, statistically. Nor do I think that because this year will be the hottest or second hottest year matter much either, statistically.
What it does do is hoist the coolers on their own petards and it does draw attention to the fact that there is deadly silence in the MSM about it.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/wishy-washy-asylum-policy/story-e6frezz0-1225891804413
I think this opinion piece is a must read, especially the plague part at the bottom
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/wishy-washy-asylum-policy/story-e6frezz0-1225891804413
I think this opinion piece is a must read, especially the plague part at the bottom
It was your party that made common cause with Malcolm Turnbull – how’s that for a drift to the right?
deconst
Time for Labor and Green to work together to destroy the deniers. I suggest you use your energy to attack Abbott, not Labor.
OK, well I don’t have time to figure out how his graphs work. My usual source of climate news
http://www.sciencedaily.com/news/earth_climate/global_warming/
doesn’t have anything about it.
It’s probably been discussed already, but AAP reports that the LNP have dumped their preselected candidate for Griffith (John Humphreys, an ‘economic consultant’). This is reported to be the third dumping (four if you include Michael Johnson in Ryan). It also reports ‘disquiet about 20 year old Wyatt Roy’ in Longman and Bert Van Manen in Forde.
dovif. I see the Daily Terror continues to terrorise.
Turnbull accepts climate science and wants to pass an ETS. Given that Labor does not control the Senate, he was the only person able to deliver an agreement to pass an ETS. It was the Greens who chose to defeat it, by voting with the denialists. You can’t get around those facts.
Also reports that Mal Brough hasn’t been ruled out for preselection for Griffith, but it’d be hard to imagine the LNP welcoming Mr Brough back with open arms.
Dovif
If the journo who wrote that piece was anything more than a lazy, Bible-thumping, partisan ratbag he would have known that Burke has announced, to the approval of those on the opposite side of the House, millions of dollars in additional Commonwealth funding for locust control.
He would also have drawn attention to the fact that it always rains more under Labor.
Locusts are harbingers of very good seasons. They need to be sprayed so that the farmers can get at the good seasons.
Sorry, on the link in my 2712 above click on ENSO Prediction Plume, top right hand corner. Then use the inner scroll to see the model predictions.
I’m happy to put the CPRS behind me. A stronger climate policy will now be negotiated when Greens get BoP. However when Adam suggests that the Greens betrayed their party base by voting against the CPRS, it really irks me, because he’s clearly not the Green party base.
I want the Labor and Greens to work together to secure a strong climate deal to put before Senate in their first sitting post 1 July 2011. I want this to happen before the election is announced – but it won’t of course. If it did happen, it would diminish Greens chances in Melbourne but I’m more interested in a positive outcome for our country than securing seats.
Why would Brough run in Griffiths when he could easily win Fisher?
Why would the LNP even bother to waste money on a campaign for Griffith – Rudd will probably increase his margin further.
I’m thoroughly bored with the whole boat people issue – perhaps Gillard might as well take up the Nauru option, if only to take the oxygen out of the debate and shut up the media.
Glen: I don’t think Mal Brough would be that stupid – Rudd would cream him.
I agree with you that Peter Slipper is one bit of political deadwood your side of politics should dump.
evan14
They think Rudd might pull the pin.
evan14. The MSM and the Liberals continue to give oxygen to the AS debate, because they believe it helps garner more support for them. Personally, it would be a great outcome if the ALP can get agreement with East Timor. I think that is when the MSM and the opposition will shut up. Well, one can only hope?
If you think that would shut up the media then think again. It’d send them into a frenzy.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/journo-the-victim-of-evanss-truth-bomb/story-e6frg6zo-1225891851048
Another Amatuer
Like Swannie with his budget estimates, whose 2 estimates has been wrong by an average of $25 billion and his lie on the RSPT tax …. amateur,
Like Gillard and her $10 budget overrun on her school hall building project, and who decided to build a detention center in East Timor, without telling the east timor government …. amateur
Like Minister of the Midnight oil, who confessed that he was not burning the midnight oil and he did not know about a 1 year old report, that actually forcasted what would happen to the home insulation scheme … amateur
Like the Ruddster, whose ability to propose tax without doing any research is legendary ….. amateur
Like the CON-roy, who propose a internet filter, who everyone with an understanding of how internet work, could tell him that it does not work …. amateur
Well I at least has a lot of respect for Tanner and Faulkner
Then Griffiths would only be ever marginal (if the LNP pulled off the impossible).
I think Mr Brough wants to stick the knife into Slipper. God Slipper is a useless old fool!
So instead of a former cabinet minister we have Mr Slipper zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz!
Boerwar@2733 Do they really?
Prof Dovif
Chemistry class today?
You have to give Kevy credit for converting a marginal Liberal seat into a rather safe ALP electorate(15% margin).
If the Ruddster gets a big international gig and he exits Australian politics, QLD Labor would be hard pressed to hold Griffith.
Tom Hawkins@2704
I must have missed your question.
Firstly, I do not have a party ‘side’. Secondly I am not generally familiar with the policies of any party. I look them up when there is an issue under discussion
I don’t ‘bag’ opinions on the basis of party support. However, I am critical of party lines uncritically repeated, in place of genuine personal opinions.
I supported here the Greens voting for the government’s ETS in November, which was obviously not their policy, even though the government had refused to negotiate on it with anyone but the Libs.
So you are on a wrong tack, but I do understand you attacking me because I am critical of the government comprising your party which you hold dear.
victoria
That was the reason given for dumping the candidate they had. When Rudd was PM the candidate would have been election fodder but if Rudd goes they must think that they should get someone who is credible enough to have a real go at winning the seat.
But since the LNP itself probably doesn’t know what it thinks about anything, who am I to know what they are thinking?
dovif
So, Gillard managed to help save Australia from the GFc with a $10 cost overrun? Or did you make a mistake?
Think of the jobs saved, the businesses saved, the improvements in education…
Or, as the only realistic alternative in town, think ‘No’, ‘No’, No’ and ‘Cut’, ‘Cut, ‘Cut.’
Take your pick.
Well, you could not vote at all. Is that what you plan to do?
Griffith, like most inner city seats, is getting steadily better for Labor. The Libs held it through the Whitlam years, but now it’s reasonably safe. Labor would hold it even if Rudd retired.
Tom Hawkins@2704
Not only did you miss the question but you still haven’t answered it.
Glenn your Brough fixation is nearly as bad as your romance with Bruce Billson.
A Brough-mance?
More seriously, the fact that Marise Payne didnt switch from the Senate to run in Lindsay indicates the Libs now don’t think they can win it.
It’s also a mark of good sense by Payne. Why switch from a safe-ish Senate seat to the House. I doubt she has any leadership delusions.
Itep,
Ms Payne is a very serious individual. It looks like she is in for the long haul. I wouldnt be surprised if she had some ambitions.
jv doesn’t give a fig about the Greens, or any other party. He/she uses this blog as cheap therapy. PB is dominated by Labor supporters, so Greens-sounding dross is regularly served up. But when hectoring others, then the content changes. When feeling pressured, jv simply becomes insubstantial, as @ 2741 (but even then manages to finish with another personal snipe- that is why jv is here in the first place, after all).
The important, unchanging bit is the characterisation of someone else (anyone, basically) as being inferior to jv. Mentally inferior, morally inferior, whatever- it doesn’t matter.
I assume that it is very salving for his/her self-esteem, as it is such a puerile activity that it would have to offer very solid benefits to be worthwhile.
The heavy overuse of the laughing emoticon, a celebratory gesture meant to cheerily indicate his/her lofty superiority, by itself puts jv in the crap troll class- the same category occupied by bob1234…
Labor might hold Lindsay, but David Bradbury hasn’t done himself much good with all the recent panic about boat people invading Penrith.
She should kill them now. The Liberal Party wouldn’t support her (the base or the loonies in the party room) and it appears modern leaders need to have some sort of media profile to survive. She has none and I’m not sure she could gain one (although I suppose Ms Redmond did pretty well without one).
The similarities are abundantly clear.
Payne’s been a Senator for 13 years and she’s worked her way up to very junior shadow minister. In less time, Gillard has become PM.
What’s the female equivalent of puerile? Puellile?
The times may one day suit someone like Payne.
Its pretty hard to get a boat up the Hawkesbury, through all the salvinia and over Penrith Weir.
Would you rather I had a fixation on Alex Hawke, Wilson Tuckey or Don Randall?
Boerwar
Quite simply, the resources industry saved Australia from the GFC. You can hear it from Swannie talking about how much money the resource sector is going to pour into the budget over the next 2 years to tell us where his money is coming from
As for Swannie (Flibbie)’s lie about the Resource sector “recession” LOL, their reasoning was that the resources sector shed jobs!!!
ie the exploration company, who has no income was shedding jobs because they had no income. While the BHP and Rios were driving our trade surplus – See BHP and Rio’s 2009 accounts to see how big a recession they had. LOL
Gillard like all Labor minister cannot control finances, the school hall building project is expected to have cost overruns of $10 billion by the time it finished
Peter Brent on the comparisons between Gillard and Hawke on matters immigration.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/gillard_is_no_hawke/
I don’t agree with his comparing a first term government (and a new leader yet to face voters as leader) with a three term government – there’s simply no comparison. He also forgets (or overlooks) the relentless media fishbowl today’s political leaders live in compared with 20 years ago.
Glen,
If it means stalking them and making their lives a misery, then go right ahead!
Does Paul Keating still own a piggery? I don’t think the companies he has served on the boards of have done to well.
maybe also that stimulated retail sector…
Prof Dovif
You are increasingly coming across as living in bizarro world
Why so mad?
No it doesnt mean that.
blue_green – 2764,
Keating isn’t alone – companies that have ex-politicians on their boards tend to perform poorly.
It’s even harder to sail a boat out to Kalgoorlie, but that didn’t stop Abbott’s Red Arrows of Doom suggesting otherwise.
Sorry, Glen! I thought it was funny, but it was also in poor taste.
Glen, you missed mentioning Dr Jensen. His preselectors don’t want him so perhaps he needs some love.
Dovif
‘Resources industry saved Australia during the GFC.’
Do you enjoy making your facts up or do you get someone else to do it for you?
The facts are that the resource industry reduced capital investment and reduced employment in Australia during the GFC. You can’t blame them for that. That’s what multi-nationals do. Look after No 1 and the rest of us can go and get f**ked. But, please, Dovif, don’t go the rah rah for them. They don’t deserve it.
If our other industies had followed suit, and if the Government hadn’t pumped in the stimulus funding, the job losses would have been measured in the hundreds of thousands.
Boerwar, don’t bother. The Liberals and their supporters don’t believe the stimulus package created a single job. It’s an ideological position that can’t be backed down from.
ltep
Prime Minister Jensen!!
B
The multiplier effect of the stimulus avg around 3.2 times
in some industries it literally kept the wheels turning and the lights on
what time is the PM at the NPC?
Exactly
There must be some reason Dr Jensen has been saved numerous times by the party overlords. We all know he was disappointed Abbott didn’t put him into a senior front bench position after deniers revolt of ’09. Perhaps he is now working the numbers for a leadership push of his own.
12.30
I think that she’s on at 12.30, Psephos.
Pipped by triton. Damn my bandaged hand.
Yes I thought 12.30. Now to figure out how to keep two lunch appointments while watching.
Psephos. As it will be on ABC radio, you could listen to it in between appointments.
So its 12.30 abc or just streaming
At the moment on the ABC we have The Muppets. I assume I’ll be able to tell the difference when the NPC is on.
The music stops?
Mal Brough has one problem if he wants to stand for the LNP, he is not a member of the party.
He can stand for the Mal Brough Family Values Party.
“Grrrr. Looks like I’ll be voting Green.”
Socrates, give your other end a go, will ya? You were never, ever not going to vote Green if you weren’t already in Abbott’s camp. Day after day, we see you and dozens like you on here moaning “Boo Hoo. I didn’t get every single thing I wanted. Boo Hoo. They treated Kevin really bad. Boo Hoo. Looks like I will have to vote green”
Then shut up and do it and stop wasting everyones time and bandwidth with your never-ending whining. Just about everything you are blubbering on about with Labor will be exponentially worse under Liberal and you know it. No mining tax (extra profits to Rio et al), further undermining of the ABC – if that is possible, Workchoices, demonising of your precious boaties and of course you can forget about ever getting an ETS. You know, the one who had a chance at getting started but squibbed because, boo hoo, we didn’t get every single thing we wanted.
You will get a lot more respect – make that you will get SOME respect – when you just simply admit that you will vote Green and then preference Abbott. And stop your pathetic, puerile wimpering. And that goes for Diogenes, Bob1234, Peter Young and all the rest of the watermelon pot plants that infest this site.
Roy Orbison! You da man (or woman)!
Move Australia Forward – now there’s a policy
Lean, mean, green.
If I hear “tax the mining companies have agreed to pay” one more time, I am going to puke over my tax returns
What happens if I dont “agree” with taxes levied on me???
Liberal Party Policy Discussion:
‘No, no, but, but, but, cut, cut, cut, look, no, no, cut, cut, no, but, look, cut, no, cut..’
You could try an ad campaign?
I think it was “clean, green and lean.”
dovif,
You keep repeating MSM and LNP horseshite about the BER.
Here is what the principal of Gosford High School, Lynne Searle, says about it in the school report:
An absolute disaster, as you can see.
Her comments about the DER are:
Some facts to counter your crap. I can provide you with similar material from virtually every public school in the NSW Central Coast. Abbott wants to can both of these programs. He is such a good reader of the public mood!
cheers,
Mad Dog
whoops
Roy, I really don’t see why you’re going off at Socrates. These blogs are about putting forward points your of view and not just admitting who you will vote for.
I’m a Greens voter because they are the only party who will actually deliver a carbon pricing scheme that would reduce Australia’s emissions in line with the amounts needed to save the world from the majoor impacts of global warming. There are many other reasons such as education, public transport, harm minimisation in relation to drugs, human rights, etc. that neither of the major party come close to.
Socrates on the other hand has essentially said that he/she will vote for The Greens because The ALP have not fulfilled their promises, governing badly, and that more power to The Greens would produce better legislation than more power to either of the major parties. After all, if The Greens had the true balance of power in the Senate, The ALP may have negotiated the CPRS with them, and a truly rediculous scheme that reduced Australia’s emissions by less than 5% and made taxpayers pay for polluter’s pollution would not have been produced. We may have actually had a scheme that would have allowed climate success.
Mad Dog
Did you notice how happy they were with the outcomes of their ‘self managed’ project?
Abbott “I don’t believe that political parties should bribe their way into office”.
Yeah – that’s it, Tone, take a leaf out of Howard’s playbook.
moo. Agreed. Different points of view should be welcome. Sometimes it even broadens the mind.
Is there to be any meat in this presser or is just a getting to know you speech?
natasha exelby goes for the broadside first shot!
I agree. As long as they are the same as mine, of course.
Natasha from Ten was looking very bored earlier- she was obviously just waiting for her chance to ask her “tough” question.
Gusface. Journos are so full of their self importance, honestly where do they get off?
when are jounralist going to be journalist we are interested in policy
Mad Dog
All may be true but school reports are to a very large extent a public relations and marketing exercise for their school. The Principal is hardly going to say that “this school is shite, and every input from the PM down to kids are shite too”.
If you read between the lines there are:
- we did a really good job on self managing
- we would have liked to have got aircon too.
And on the DER, a good acknowledgement that is does make for different learning methods.
laurie follows up with grapeshot!
Oakes must be working off Rudd leaks…to try and snare Gillard.
WE should ask Paul Bon jonour where is he i wonder.
Was Natasha Exelby the one whose clothing style was commented upon by the XPM?
i wish i lived near channel 10 so i could have my say m,,,,, why dont one of you mainlander tell them what you think.
Gillard tacks and lines up for the retort!
Faulkner, Gillard, Rudd. The three who knew. Who’s leaking?
I just wish she’d work on her ‘t’s.
Don Watson is supporting Keating, saying that Hawke’s narcissism “knows no bounds.”
But in almost all electorates your vote can only end up with the ALP or L/NP. Assuming that L/NP is out of the question, Labor voters can only protest by voting informally.
Looks like “Libs going backwards” will be the Labor mantra this election.
Boerwar,
It’s not just July that had some of the hottest temperatures ever recorded in the UAH and RSS records. Much of January and February were similarly ‘off the scale’ with temperatures never seen before.
As a science graduate it’s the issue of climate-change that made me become more politically interested and active and whilst I’m disappointed in the government’s efforts so far, the lies and misinformation on the subject coming from the LNP under Abbott makes my blood boil.
Smack down for Laurie Oakes.
Gillard doing a good job with engaging with the journos in a very personal, humane view.
LOL. Tingle introduced herself as ‘Gillard’.
Roy Orbison
You are one of these weather veins / Labor prositutes that will go with whatever the party does. In effect your views are worthless because of this fact.
Funny that what you attack Socrates is more appropriate to yourself. You should be fairly ashamed of yourself.
Someone attacked your precious Gillard, boo hoo.
Someone attacked a Labor policy, boo hoo.
Grow up and stop following politics like you would your football side.
B
She has got the sisterhood onside
I’d head straight for the GG
Moo,
Of course these blogs are for what you say they are. They aren’t for what is known as concern trolls and Socrates is but one of many here who pretend they stand for something then when they don’t get what they want, it is a case of “Oh me, oh my, I will have to take my vote elsewhere”, as if that wasn’t the situation in the first place.
But at least you say up front what you are doing, even if you do think you are doing the world a favour by wanting it all and wanting it all right this minute. That’s what being a Green is all about. Not having to actually ever do anything but all the time reserving the right to make bone-headed statements like “Oh goody, we’ve just been out-greened by Tone. You go, Tone”. Sound familiar? It should.
So you right ahead and vote for the Greens. I’ll defend to the death your right to do it. And while you’re at it, preference Tone. You know you want to! But it doesn’t mean I have to believe the infantile dribble about how Labor’s scheme wasn’t going to save the world this week or even this month. As you obviously are unfamiliar with the term “baby steps”, which is what Labor’s first step would have been, I hope you will be happy living under Abbott when the lights go out.
And while not wanting to be too much of a pedant, there is no such word as “rediculous”.
Psephos,
I’m pretty sure Roy is a male name. Just let me check between my legs…
Matty tries for the grappling irons!
This speech wont be found in future anthologies, straight after the Gettysburg Address
Quality of journo questions if anything, worse.
“Taxi. Take me to Yarralumla”
Who’s this nong?
Who says Oakes isn’t just making it up? I don’t trust Canberra journalists any more than estate agents or a car salesmen.
Harry is also a male name, but Harry “Snapper” Organs is in fact female, so I don’t take it for granted.
God, why don’t they get up and defend the bloody BER – there were thousands of projects, if not tens of thousands, and you get, what, a hundred or so lots of people whinging about it! SNIP: See article 2 of comment moderation guidelines – The Management.
Franklin of the OO.
I have taken a few of his articles to pieces in the past.
Maybe a ceasefire between the Green supporters and the ALP supporters?
I know I have had a part in it, but I’m now officially am laying down my arms. Maybe it’s just my weariness from the flu, but this whole back and forth is getting tedious.
Vote for whom you want. Just make sure you’re voting for the right reasons, not just spite.
Tom
The Canberra press gallery has the behaviour of a school of fish – all moving in the same direction, regardless of what it is.
matt franklin hatchet journo de jour for the OO
Franklin doing a Noddy. Gillard is doing an amazing job.
If there’s one word to describe Julia’s disposition today it’s “comfortable”.
Oh, Franklin…
kev to get a senior frontbench role after election
2828 – no chance Oakes would make that up – question far too detailed – he’s an old cynic on these things, it’s been leaked to him for sure.
This speech by Gillard certainly sounds like a campaign kick off. If she were American, I would be waiting for her to say the phrase “…and that’s why I announcing, today, my candidacy for President of the United States…”
#2722
Great idea but it go’s both ways, what about Labor attacking the Greens, eg Psephos:
#2726
Have to agree that Gillard is blitzing them, so far.
Not very subtle questioning, to be sure…
The MSM are back to gotcha games and attempted belligerence
JG may well be in the perfumed steamroller mould
Rural Press, now. Almost a Dorothy Dixer.
That wasn’t an attack. It was a simple statement of fact. The only reason I repeat those facts is that people keep accusing Labor of doing nothing about climate change. When that accusation is made, I will respond to it. If poeple stop making that claim, I won’t need to waste my keystrokes replying to it.
Peace with the Greens?? LOL Psephos has a point about identifying the Greens as a stumbling block to the ETS.
Apparently Centrebet has decided to close the books on betting for the election date after a huge surge of bets for 21 August, including a $7500 bet.
Cancelled both lunch appointments, Psephos?
She certainly has good oratory skills.
Bill: Yes, it’s a NATO award given once every five years: gold medal, big ceremony in Brussels, £100 000. The PM’s the front runner this time. It’s for the statesman who’s made the biggest contribution to European unity.
Sir Humphrey: Since Napoleon, that is, if you don’t count Hitler.
I missed Laurie’s question what was it?
Cancelled one, and the other is keeping me waiting.
riley goes for the headhigh tackle!
Perhaps the greens didn’t pass the ETS because it was a dog of a policy? Hopefully after the next election we will have an opportunity for a better outcome for the environment.
But they still draw breath and there are still boxes of ammunition
G
Suggestions that Kev is thinking about pulling the pin, enough to get the LNP to change candidates, can only come from Kev.
Leaks about the substance of the discussion between Faulkner, Gillard and Rudd, who were the only ones in the room did not come from Faulkner or Gillard. They had to come from Kev.
I won’t revisit my larger theme about Rudd, but I will repeat my view that Kev is detached from reality if he thinks that Gillard has to give him the job he wants after the election, even if he acts to destablize her and the Labor Party in the meantime
Oakes knows that neither Gillard won’t expand on what took place with her ascendency to the leadership hence he (Oakes) is taking no risk whatsoever in adding as much detail to the question as he chooses. It would be to silly to unquestionally accept that Oakes’ question is factually based.
That memory of yours is full of gold, Glen.
Oakes’ integrity is pretty well respected. He’s either got a bad source or he is correct. Who knows and who cares. Even if it’s true it doesn’t mean anything.
I decided last night I would be voting 1 Green 2 ALP at this forthcoming election, as a little protest at the fact I think my beloved Labor party has lost its way at the Federal level. It won’t stop me working to get the Labor Party elected and keep evil Abbott out, but I’ll feel better by making a little protest in the privacy of the ballot box. I disagree with many of the Green policies, so a first preference for them is not support for their policies. It is simply a protest vote. (And the election funding the ALP loses because of my vote, I will make up).
I’m sure a number of ALP supporters will do the same as me, so we should be careful how we interpret the Green vote that does occur.
PS I note that in her Per Capita speech Gillard said
‘My own life is rooted in that sense of forward motion that is at the core of our nation’s story’.
Not quite up there with ‘Programmed specificity’, but getting there.
By whom?
His peers?
Give me a break.
That was GOLD Sir Humphrey.
What was Oakes question anyway about knifing Rudd or…???
Great to see such an extensive online coverage of the Press Club address by News Limited, sorry Limited News…..
wacky WA journo aims for the foot in mouth!
Ooh, gee. The performing journos are a bit wearing.
Just a question about every foreign policy issue about at the moment…
Why, PM, do you hate WA so much?
blackburnseph 2809,
Are you saying she’s lying, or that the people who read the report think she’s lying, or what?
Why do you imply that schools didn’t have input into the projects being carried out? Because the MSM and Abott’s lying team said so? All that you are showing is that you base your ‘knowledge’ on these matters on mass propaganda, rather than investigation and facts.
I give special lessons on plate tectonics, vulcanology, and geology generally, at many primary and high schools in this area. I haven’t come across one school that isn’t delighted with their BER project(s). The parents (around 25,000 of them) receive very positive feedback from their school principals via newsletters, and they respect them greatly.
Wilful ignorance like yours is sad. You should get out more. Parents and Citizens group meetings are open to all. Try it, you might learn something.
cheers,
Mad Dog
Gillard is doing a brilliant job.
She is answering the questions honestly, directly and personally. The camera shots panning back to the journos who asked the questions often has the journos nodding. She is not accepting false premises. She reframes the questions in a fair way and then answers them.
Clearly. One is a harmless political cliche, whereas the other is a case of over-verbosity in public speech.
The Green and ALP supporters have a common enemy. It would be better sport to take them on me thinks.
#2853 Mick – Excuse me if I dont hold my breath.
you know you will be the only one that know that you do that so why
IF YOU WANT TO KEEP ABBOTT AS YOU SAY you will vote one labor.
i bet if labor lost you would say to your self o my why did i do that.
how do you know how many preferences will flow to labor from your second choice.
think about it if you are not happy tell you labor member write to the pm
as i said only YOU know you voted second for labor.
your member does \not see you vote and o golly gosh he voted for me second.??
some of them took their smirks off their faces very quicly.
On the Laurie Oakes question…
I wonder what Abbott’s snarky reply to this will be. “She’s a lying cow! Everything said was bullshit!”
B
@2855
No use dragging over the coals.
#2869 Brissy Rod
I’m not holding my breath either
My say, johncanb made it clear they were preferencing Labor after the Greens so their vote will not go to ‘Abbott’. It’s a perfectly acceptable thing to do and something a proportion of ALP voters will do at the coming election. Labor will accept this if it means they win a larger percentage of the other voters, and government.
Well the AEC will also know.
G
As long as Kev doesn’t keep adding fuel to the fire.
My say
The result cannot be be affected by me voting 1 Green 2 ALP rather than 1 ALP. But the slightly higher green vote will be a message to those who look at the votes.
And the post poll surveys will show that a number have voted 1 Green 2 ALP for the reasons I have.
B
perhaps it is old news rehashed to inconvenience JG at the npc?
#2875 LOL
My Say
I will also be voting 1 Greens, 2 Labor. I will know exactly where my vote will be going.
I will also put Families First LAST.
Centrebet also reports receiving a $10,000 bet on a Coalition victory (at $4.10). I wish these people making large bets would just give me their money instead. Lunacy.
Mick S surely you’ll put CEC LAST?
G
That Oakes stuff was new. It stunned me, actually. Both Gillard and Faulkner have stated publicly that they will never reveal what was discussed.
I can understand that Rudd is embittered but I can only conclude that he is confused.
IMHO there are huge gaps between what he thinks he is doing and what he is actually doing.
Families First? Here’s to the end of that failure of a political party.
Boerwar. Sorry to be a pain, but what was question asked by Laurie Oakes? I missed it.
B
Nothing surprises me in politics anymore
victoria
gotta go but it was based on the discussion between Rudd, Gillard and Faulkner on the eve of Rudd’s sacking.
Gillard espousing the value of optimism as opposed to being scared of change. Very good.
Perhaps Oakes’ source was Thomas Paine.
ltep
GOLD
ltep
GOLD
Boerwar. Thanks.
The only interesting thing in the Gillard speech was wtte “unpopular cutbacks”. I wonder what programs are going to be means tested more?
That was a masterful performance by La Gillardiene
More election date betting.
Sportingbet has Aug21 @ $2.00, Aug28 @ $1.80, Sep4 @ $4.00
So yes Aug21 is firming up quickly
Very true. If you vote below the line, you must be careful- there’s always a more unpleasant alternative, that can profit from eagerness to punish someone else.
Thanks Glen I forgot all about the CEC; I guess I’ll have to toss a coin for the coveted last position on my precious ballot.
The Finnigans. Wonder when Mr Abbott will be giving an NPC address, and how that will pan out?
And, Finns, just try to imagine the polish and clarity of an Abbott appearance.
While probably just a high roller who likes to take the long odd bets, I can’t help imagine it is some Liberal tit who is trying to shorten the odds, thinking it will change the results of the election itself.
Fingers crossed for a change to school funding formulas. I suspect I’ll be disappointed on this one.
BK, all Abbott will say is “Bugger Me”
I want to see Tony Abbott at the Press Club. His constant ‘aarr’s are very conducive to a fantastic drinking game!
After 5 minutes you’d be legless!
Victoria
re your earlier Q
BK – Precisely. But what a great 5 minutes. Makes the rest of his address all the more bareable!
Roy O,
While you are handing out spelling lessons, one for you. Dribble is what babies do, drivel is what Abbott and others spout.
http://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/british/drivel
cheers,
MD
[primary and high schools in this area. I haven’t come across one school that isn’t delighted with their BER project(s). The parents (around 25,000 of them) receive very positive feedback from their school principals via newsletters, and they respect them greatly. [
of course they had input i know of school where the headmaster met with the building
manager every day down to what paint colour should be used.
they are now over the moon with their project.
Yes, Rudd believed an October election was needed to the government could roll out a new climate change policy. He agreed to step aside before then if he was an impediment to victory and a senior minister (such as Faulkner) agreed. Gillard reportedly agreed that this was a sensible course of action and left the meeting. After discussion with factional leaders she returned to Rudd and told him she had a majority of the caucus that would back a leadership change and intended to contest the leadership.
I think that was the gist of Oakes’ ‘question’.
That would be great. But, unfortunately, I have to agree.
That would be in theme with his former youthful aspirations for “higher” office.
did you hear the about a navy wife that julia mentioned does any one know about that.
Me three.
I don’t see any reason to doubt that he’s got a leaker (Rudd).
If the punter who bet K$10 on the coalition winning was to give me the money I’d promise to give them K$3 back when they lose the election. As it stands now they’ll lose all of their dough.
Hypotheticals upon hypotheticals as journos interview each other on Sky.
Julia is apparently in “deep trouble” because maybe Rudd leaked something to Oakes.
Now she’s “trying” to label Abbott as the “ideological love child” of John Howard according to the assembled wisdom. Wow, what a surprise she’d come up with such a statement: Abbott said that himself, of himself. Talk about dirty politics!
my say,
Abbott was confronted by the wife of a Navy sailor who objected to his idea of putting them in charge of turning boats back.
Abbott was forced into an even higher backflip by her, and told her that turning a boat back would “be a very rare event”.
I don’t think she got it in writing, though.
Methinks Abbott will confine his speeches to audiences that contain his mates – News Ltd journalists like Matthew Franklin, and the shockjocks of Radio Liberal.
Funny that there hasn’t been saturation media coverage of this comment :-p
Hey, the ABC stream is still running. Looks like an announcement of some sort is coming.
is that real do they really just talk amoung them selves on that chanel
Gusface. Thanks for explanation.
Ah, the NRL on salary rorts.
was that the young lady we saw talking to him on tv.
or was it on radio
my say,
I didn’t see it (wasn’t looking at the telly), but that probably was her.
Will slynews in their wisdom focus on what may or may not have been agreed to between JG and KR on night of leadership spill for the next week. Good grief?!
roy you made my day
Yes, they always focus on the real issues, don’t they.
The assumption appears to be that only Rudd, Gillard or Faulkner knew what was said in the room.
That’s not supported by the facts.
Rudd offered Gillard a deal; she went away and discussed it with others; she then came back and rejected it.
So the ‘others’ Gillard discussed the deal with also knew what Rudd had offered and also knew she was going to reject this.
it was sbs and tone was at a market buying lavender bush.
it looked so funny as he pulled out a lot of money he must carry it..
i may be too modern or he may be old fashioned but it thougt most people shop with
cards direct debt these days
it looked so 1950 eeeish
The Australian can’t help themselves.
mysay – yes
BB Did you notice Gilbert and Spiers still pushing the Nauru solution. They couldn’t care less whether the place has a stable govt. or whether its a hellhole or whether is not UNHCR approved. All that matters is that they get Labor to backflip and use Nauru so that they can then beat them up a little more.
He may have been impressed in years past by those tossers that carried money clips!
Surprise surprise “The Age” on line headlines “PM mum on Rudd resignation deal”.
And fend it off very well, actually. If they want to flog this dead horse, they’re welcome. Most people won’t give a shite.
zoomster @2930
Well, the next step is to ask Rudd whether he leaked and see if he gives an unequivocal denial.
chinda63. They don’t need any invitation I’m afraid. They are flogging it for all its worth.
I know they well, Victoria, but I’m not sure voters care about stuff like that. They didn’t care about Hawke and Keating, they didn’t care about Howard and Costello and they won’t care about this either.
But hey, if this gets them off the subject of asylum seekers for a few days, then good.
*will
triton. It did not have to be Rudd. Whatever transpired in meeting would have in essence been known to all in parliament. Unfortunately, loose lips exist in the parliament as everywhere else. Anyone could have leaked.
I just got told off by WordPress for posting too fast. I notice also that I made more mistakes in the first posting.
*must learn to proof-read better*
Anything to push the Melbourne Storm scandal from the spotlight. I hope Fairfax go through them like a dose of salts tomorrow.
How did Hartigan allow the rorts to take place under his watch? How embarrassing.
I love the Barrell’s own goal. C’mon Kristina- it aint over yet.
Tom Hawkins. Good question. News Ltd not only run the League, they own Melbourne Storm. What is that all about?
It was over about 2 years ago.
So Laurie went to the NPC to ambush JG.
Typical dumb question to Julia from Matthew Franklin – she handled that turkey beautifully.
re naru i thought may be journlist would have done a little research
re stable gove and the like.
confessions- stand by for many more from him. He ain’t happy about Julia being PM.
Gary
Oakes had the journalistic equivalent of gold. He knew that Gillard would not answer the question.
It is just an old dog pissing on a post. Look at me.
Great to hear Laura Tingles question is so good when poeple ask question and we learn things from now that is what we want to hear.
wish they all would ask good questions like Laura the lady from rural press was good but had not really thought about the fact that the mining tax is a rurual question which of course it is.
zoomster
There is no evidence at all that Gillard discussed any deal with others.
But let’s suppose she did, they would all now be people who have an interest in Gillard succeeding.
boerwar whats the score today
was our of the room for a while did the abc ask anything
my say
Too early to tell.
Opening oneliner on SkyNews –
‘I want to take Australia forward, Tony Abbott wants to take it back.
winner
The ABC never ask questions they just report what others are saying.
Bombshell
http://www.smh.com.au/national/did-rudd-try-to-cut-a-deal-gillard-zipped-20100715-10c3o.html
.
I take it that that’s an yes.
Boerwar. Will your score be made tonight around 10.00 pm?
and maybe painting Rudd as a blabberer as well as a blubberer Boerwar
@2959. Yawn
amazing
The Rudd/Gillard transition gossip is even more boring than the Costello/Howard shennanigans and that’s saying something.
hairy nose
Their interest would best be served if no-one hears about Rudd between now and the election.
No Rudd news is good news.
Geoff
You can take it that Gillard is honouring her commitment not to talk about it.
And predictably on Their ABC:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/15/2954581.htm
Laurie Bloats has a LOT to answer for.
Itep. Agreed. Very hard to respect journos these days. Hardly surprising deals were discussed on night of leadership challenge. Whatever was discussed, we know the outcome it resulted in. JG challeged KR stepped down. New PM. Pretty simple really.
victoria
Not sure when. I try and do it after the evening news.
Boerwar. I look forward to your analysis.
It can only be assumed to be a ‘yes’ because of Oakes’s standing, not because Gillard said it was confidential. Ministers consistently refuse to divulge private conversations. You can’t conclude anything from that.
I think it is very important. The point that everyone is missing here is that by his own admission Rudd knew he was becoming an electoral liability.
So he wasn’t ambushed. He had actually made pseudo type of transitional arrangements if the polls continued the way they were.
Rudd would have known that the switch would have to come sooner rather than later with a looming election to give Gillard a chance.
The fact that he had conversations of the possiblity makes me feel a bit better.
To me this looks better for the party. Am I alone on thinking this?????
boer
from the HS report:
So Rudd briefed some people on the deal. Gillard spoke to factional leaders.
Subsequent events would certainly make it plain what Gillard told Rudd when she re entered the room; you wouldn’t have to be in there to work it out.
And what do you think Gillard told the factional leaders? “Oh, I’ve dropped the idea of leadership, no reason”?
Events all seem to paint Gillard as a reluctant recruit. She would have seized on a way out. She would have conveyed this to factional leaders. They would then have worked to convince her otherwise.
Similarly, as noted above, Rudd told colleagues about their agreement.
As I’ve said before, internal goss has it that a number of those who have been most anxious to claim credit for removing Rudd had very little to do with it. They are trying to make the media believe that they were bigger players than they were.
Leaking details of the ‘deal’ would make it look like they were ‘in the room’.
Ask the abc why no questions but they can write other people’s question
not earning their tax payers wages are they. may be they have totally forgot that they were set up to represent the people as we cannot be on every door stop
conference, that is enough to make me not even want to watch their news
now how are they going to handle 24 hours of it if they dont ask the pm a question at a press conference before an election amazing
Yawn
Dee sometimes we dont see things till they hit us in the face
Now you would make a great journalists this has unwittingly has been good for julia
i would think so not the big story the liberals and others here want us to know
you know it s just common sense really no big deal
The bigger deal to me is that we have public broadcaster that could not even ask a question of the Prime Minister at a press club luncheon
that that is very poor.
zoomster
Oakes ‘suggesting’ anything is not evidence.
Gillard is going to look even more the traitor. This is very bad for her. She has marks against her on competence and now severe issue on trust.
Rudd was actually trying to do the right thing by the party and was going to step aside if Faulkner agreed that he was going to lose coming up to an October election.
Who leaked? Gillard briefed her people and Rudd briefed his. I imagine it would have been a Rudd side leak, though somebody on Gillard’s side disgusted with her dishonest act could have leaked as well.
Gillard is looking more the fool each day and now it does appear this is 100% about her personal power grab.
[Oakes asked Ms Gillard: “Is it true that Mr Rudd told you that night that he was working towards an October election because he knew issues like climate change needed to be sorted out?
“Is it true that Mr Rudd indicated to you that if closer to the election polling showed he was an impediment to the re-election of the government, and if leading Labor figures such as John Faulkner agreed he was an impediment, that he would then voluntarily stand aside and hand over the leadership to you before the election?
“Is it also true that you agreed this offer was sensible and responsible?”
Oakes went on to suggest that the meeting then temporarily broke up, with Mr Rudd briefing some colleagues on the “deal” and Ms Gillard speaking to factional leaders who were pushing her to bring on a leadership spill.
“[Is it true] when the meeting resumed, you said you’d changed your mind, you’d been informed that he didn’t have the numbers in caucus and you were going to challenge anyway?” Oakes said.
Ms Gillard refused to elaborate on the contents of their meeting, saying it was confidential]
So what?
Even if true, what was proposed was not substantially different from what actually happened apart from accelerating the timetable by a month or two.
I didn’t actually agree with the coup. As I recall, my first words on hearing about it on the Thursday morning were “Oh FFS”. But it’s over. Julia Gillard is PM, Rudd’s stewing on the back bench and we’ve got an election coming up, whether in August or not. As a moderately engaged voter, I’m starting to find the incessant picking over of the events of 3 weeks ago tedious in the extreme.
Joe and Jane Swinger couldn’t give a stuff and are unlikely to start doing so this side of Doomsday. It is even less interesting to them than the who knew what and when speculation surrounding Children Overboard. I cared about that, as did, I suspect, everyone else here, but, let’s face it, no-one else did. Similarly, no-one cares about internal party machinations. Howard welshing on his deal with Costello never hurt his electoral performance.
This is not a bombshell for the vast majority of the electorate. More an infusion of a powerful sedative.
Thomas Paine@2978
Anything you say Kevin.
lets hope that socrates and vera read Dees very good thought out post
TP read between the lines see dees post it has completley the opposite
effect.
a lot of people only read head lines.
as again when is the abc going to create on of their own i am still amazed not one question from the abc to a pm
hughb. Well said.
I wonder what plans Rudd had to rectify the government’s problems before an October election?
He said he wouldn’t go to the right on asylum seekers, so presumably nothing was going to change in that area.
my say. As others have mentioned, the ABC don’t tend to lead these days, they follow.
1892CFC@2391 – this is where the new ABC24 will be handy. People will be able to watch exactly what the pollies say. A-pac has shown the disconnect which often occurs between the spoken word and the reporting of it. It’s meant that we don’t mind if we miss the ‘News’ each night because we can see the interviews directly and make up our own minds as to what was said. It will be an eye opener for many.
I had a long conversation with a bloke today who swore black and blue that JuliaG was once the head of the ACTU, that only labourers and the lowest in society should vote for Labor because the Party was formed for labourers, and that the Fraser/Howard Govt. left a huge surplus.
He also said that there was no need to go into debt during the GFC because the surplus that Costello left was plenty to get by on. There was a lot more – more schools hate their building than like them because he sees it on the news at night. Surprisingly he didn’t care about the deaths due to pink batts because you always get electrical deaths. Said it was a given in the industry!!
Hawke and Keating did nothing good for the country and it is always left to the Libs to get the country out of a mess after Labor! Boat people are the scourge of the earth and pensioners should be paid the $Ks given to the boat people.
Phew! it was pretty full on for 2 hours. Ended up saying that he liked Gillard because she’s got guts. Work that one out.
Cant help but think that Oaks is being stupidly opportunist with this. Its being painted as a “Kirribilli style deal” on the same day as the latest Hawke / Keating slanging match takes off?? And, there really is NOTHING to it.
He is essentially reporting on what happened WHILE things were being worked out, not what was worked out. Positions get put in that kind of negotiation, they get considered, agreed on or not agreed on.
Fine, maybe Rudd briefed some supporters that a deal had been done, or maybe he didnt actually tell them a deal had been done and todays flap is all due to chinese whispers from those he briefed who misinterpreted, or didnt know enough to interpret what was happening in the first place.
Did Gillard acknowledge there was some merit to it?? Maybe, but if after taking advice she decided there wasn’t enough merit in it to postpone a challenge and there is nothing wrong with that.
Also, if there had been some kind of deal done that night it would have leaked for sure. The MSM would have played it for all it was worth to damage Gillard, and cripple Rudd in the lead up to an election. I think that as soon as that meeting was known to be happening Gillard had little choice since any sniff of an unsuccesfull or postponed Gillard challenge would have been very damaging baggage for Rudd and the ALP.
How could Rudd’s proposal be accepted? Caucus would not meet until 24th August, meaning even if Rudd stood down he would give Gillard zero time before an Oct election.
here here now back to policy not gossip
I was very very impressed with Julia vision for australia and our future she is correct in saying that we should not dwell on the too hard etc wtte move forward.
I think that was in answer to something about Howard wanted us to feel relaxed and comfortable that slogan drove me mad.
Relaxed about doing nothing, so thats why we where relaxed by i wasn’t i wanted to see things happening some innovative ideas new policy not just being sent to a war and him trotting of to the us then we went to Iraq and no weapons of mass destruction the awb etc shall i go on that never ever made me feel ‘ relaxed and comfortable’
but hearing Julia say today we want to move this country forward etc is just great.
abbott would be the same do nothing and taking things away we have achieved
just slogans just slogans
Gillard now not only appears disloyal but also there are now questions about her honesty.
You cannot have an agreement with her it seems that wont be reneged as soon as she thinks she has the advantage.
I know her ardent supporters wont brook anything negative about her, they will rationalise this to suit their preconceived notion of her.
I can guarantee she wont be running a ‘who can you trust…’ election style campaign.
Paying off the miners $7bn to stop their negative advertising that would hurt Labor’s election prospects (where do I send a claim to the Labor Party for my refund of this little bit of corruption?)
If not against Abbott, Gillard would surely lose this election.
Perhaps it was just a smokescreen and Rudd would’ve rushed off to an early election and forced the party to keep him on for at least another year (no party would remove its leader extremely close to an election victory would they?).
In any case, even if Gillard had agreed to Rudd’s ‘plan’ the party would likely still have removed Rudd and put someone else in. Rudd’s gone and it’s time to move on.
Meanwhile, Rudd, a humble backbencher, is getting himself photographed shaking hands with Moon.
well said lets change subject and the page can we
Got to make it fit in such a way as to keep Gillard clean and ignore the obvious straightforward nature of the deal.
Thank s bh re the news had not thought of it like that when does it start and what channel is there a new channel i suppose they will take some away re old programs which are better than the new repeats
pure gossip. the change happened- move on. oakes is hankering for the hawke/keating days. what a non-story.
Even in doing the right thing as Rudd appears to have been attempting, the Rudd haters will turn on him even more in order to keep JGillard glorified.
cute
Now the MSM can say, Gillard press club address overshadowed by Rudd questions. Well done Laurie, you are truly one of them now
imacca.#2987 “Can’t help but think that Oaks was being stupidly opportunistic with this…”
When it comes to Journos this is an understatement. More often than not, every question put by a journo is a cynical opportunity. Whether Oaks is being factual or not, is really irrelevant at this point. It is hardly surprising that during that meeting some type of deals were being negotiated in some form. Fact is, we know outcome, JG challenged KR stood down.
Thomas Paine@2990
Yes Tony, anything you say.
Now back to letterboxing Lib propaganda.
Maintain the rage Thomas. Although instead of invoicing the ALP for the mining tax backdown you might want to think of invoicing them for psychiatrists’ visits because of the emotional distress they’ve caused you.
Stop the presses- TP is unhappy with Julia. Seriously, therapy is in order
Only in the minds of the mis-informed, the mentally deranged or supporters of the Liberal Party.
Thomas Paine,
While not impressed with the way the much-awaited Gillard Pmship began, and still unsure of how it will last, I don’t think that there is anything new from Oakes’ question that could hurt her or Labor much. If it does, then it will be because of MSM spin.
“The only person who can speak for Kevin Rudd is Kevin Rudd and I’m not going to pretend to speak for him ”
Unfortunitely for Gillard, Kevin Rudd had already spoken.
See there was only 3 people in that road, one of which would not speak about the incident, another wanted to leave politics after the meeting, and the 3rd person was Kevin Rudd. Was it just a coincidence that this came out when Rudd was overseas?
The thing is Gillard, and her loyal subject Simon Crean had been behind a lot of Labor’s leaks to the Australian, to undermine Rudd’s prime ministership. The knife from Gillards hand is still sticking out from Kevin 07 back …. Kevin 07 backstabbed by Gillard 10 has a ring to it
So was it just a coincidence that Rudd was out of the country, when all this came out?
I guess it was payback by Kevin over his “Loyal” Deputy
ruawake@3003
Of which TP is all of the above.
Thomas – this is about most of the Caucus and a lot of Labor members and supporters being very unhappy with the way Kevin was handling things. There were many disappointed caucus members who obviously felt Kevin was not listening to them.
Julia G could not have moved without the votes of the caucus room.
Kevin would still be leader if all those votes had not moved away from him. 33% primary is not a figure that makes anyone happy and that a fact. You can’t deny fact.
Frank Calabrese. I thought TP was Andrew Bolt!?
He’s proved over the past few weeks that he most certainly can.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/insulation-scheme-a-1b-waste/story-e6freuzr-1225892171072
Insulation scheme a 1 billion waste, not a good day for the government …. it is all rather incompetant …. and amatuerish
ALP Website has been revamped – and for those who are complaining about not advertising the achievements read and learn.
http://www.alp.org.au/federal-government/our-key-achievements/
Thomas Paine
This clearly demonstrates that Rudd was not ambushed as some of us Rudd supporters thought.
He was actually planning his own exit should the polls continue to head south.
As far as Gillard is concerned. I think she would have been reluctant & I can just imagine her assuring Rudd on his exit strategy discussion that it was not going to happen. The reality of it is, that to have the possibility of a Rudd exit it would have to implemented immediately to give Gillard enough time for the voters to settle with the new arrangements.
When I think about the angst in some seats about Rudd’s demise it does not matter whether Rudd, Faulkner or Gillard leaked the arrangements. It doesn’t disclose treachery but a consensus including Rudd that he was a problem. It vindicates the party.
As a rusted on Ruddite, I regret to say it is highly likely Kevin leaked what happened in the conversation with Gillard and Faulkner. He’s a very naughty boy and he should shut the f.. up until after the election.
On the contrary this is very important news.
Gillard duped the people and Prime Minister of the country, how is this not news?
It is glaringly apparent that JGillard did a simply power grab for no reason, deposing the person the people in their minds voted in as Prime Minister of this country.
And she did so despite a very responsible agreement with Rudd that a climate change policy had to be sorted out and that if Faulkner agreed he was an impediment coming up to an election that he would step aside. How responsible and generous and selfless can you get!
Seems Rudd was doing exactly the right thing by the party and the country at all times. But JGillard and her impatient cabal had an immediate hunger for power, regardless of the people or the party.
This is quite disgusting.
Another sandwich for many here to eat and say tastes like vegemite.
TP @ 2994
“Got to make it fit in such a way as to keep Gillard clean and ignore the obvious straightforward nature of the deal.”
No TP, not at all. The intellectual trap you have fallen into is blindly believing something just because a member of the press gallery says it MIGHT have been so, because believing it reinforces what seems to me to be your barely rational personal distaste for Julia Gillard.
If there is any truth to what OOaks has proposed, then on reflection i’d say it was VERY good for the ALP that Gillard followed through and challenged. Unresolved leadership issues would have REALLY hurt the ALP’s re-election chances and once the question had been asked, Rudd had to go.
dovif, you fail to mention this part of the article:
FC 3011
Considering that it was Gillard who said the government stuffed up a lot after she backstabbed Rudd, I think that had already been decided
Gillard: ALP is crap
Frank, a terrific, simply summary. Very effective.
As for the insane one, yes Gillard deposed a PM for no reason. Doctor!!
Get it out of your system Thomas. It’s ok to cry.
TP
I have over tens of thousands of posts, maybe hundreds of thousands of posts, enjoyed your contributions. ‘But, but, but, but,’ as Abbott would say.
What did Gillard say or do that was dishonest?
What ‘agreement’? Any evidence?
What do you mean by ‘seems’? Does this mean you are hypothesizing something?
Gillard is running a trust campaign. ie you are wrong on that one already.
Gillard did not ‘pay off’ the miners. Gillard negotiated a win win or a lose lose, or a lose win or a win lose depending on your point of view. Any compromise by Gillard (or by Rudd, who was apparently deeply into working out a compromise as well) would be defined by yourself as ‘pay off’ and ‘corruption’. Would you apply that to Rudd as well?
‘Refund’ for what? Did you pay something?
There is zero guarantee that Gillard will win the election. We may well end up with Prime Minister Abbott, arch cutter, arch nay sayer, arch AGW denialist, arch enemy of social spending and arch enemy of the workers. There would be one good thing if this happened. We would all have something real to grumble about.
dovif. Despite what you think, this country is ticking along nicely. Unemployment low. Will be in surplus within three years. Will collect extra revenue from new tax. Money being spent to improve schools. Improvements in Health etc. Europe, UK and US would love to be in this “amatuerish” position, wouldn’t you agree?
I would suggest this was leaked by one of Rudd’s crew. Then again it could have been any minister or staffers or briefed MP who was disgusted with JGillard’s double betrayal.
I can imagine there would be many within Labor who are gunning for Gillard.
I think they should question Rudd on the 7.30 report about this when he comes back.
Hmmmm. Thomas Paine’s auditioning to become the resident Village Idiot of PB is going great gun.
I’m not sure they make a point of interviewing has-beens on the 7.30 Report but it’s possible they might indulge commenter Thomas Paine of Pollbludger.
Really, most of you lot are verging on the delusional. The more this keeps up the more it feeds into the theme of instabiity, and as Peter Brent said, negates the advantage of incumbency that labor once had.
You can blame Laurie Oakes (what was he supposed to do?) or call others who highlight the problem, Liberal supporters or tell them to get over it, but the fact is that the coup is a totally unecessary own goal that could lose the election to the most incompetent opposition leader ever.
To some of you the ALP is like a religion, and like any religous zealot you can’t see reality when it stares you in the face.
Gillard- “I want to take Australia forward, Tony Abbott wants to take it back”
Here’s a preview of Gillard’s new leader TV add.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/gallery-e6frg6zx-1111120349509?page=3
Thomas Paine@3022
Who gives a Damn. – it’s over and done.
Move on and grow a pair.
Ir are you really wanting a return of workchoices Mark 2.
FFS We are sick of yourb ranting and raving.
We don’t care what you think you sound like Paul Keating to Bob Hawke.
STFU already.
Gosh. Report written by members of Opposition on issue that is one of their major election planks condemns government. Report written by members of government disagrees. Quell surprise.
Rudd was leading the ALP to such an election loss. The fact the the Liberal Party were wanting an election before the Gillard change and now don’t want one is very telling.
Adrian – let’s talk again after the election and see whether you still think is was an “own goal”.
*IT dammit!
Frank Calabrese. I know TP is frustrating you, but he needs to vent for some reason. If it makes him feel better, who can it hurt?
@2978, more spin on your part than a jet engine..
Victoria
I agree completely, despite the best effort of this incompetant government that had stuffed up the following
Budget
ETS
Detention center in East Timor
Border protection
BER
Mining tax
Green Loans
Filter
Aborigines housing
Insulation
Stimulation Cheques to UK and Africa to stimulate their economy
Copenhagen
Fuel Watch
Alcopop
Grocery Choice
The former Keating Labor government and Howard government which I voted for had left this country in such a good position, that it will take another 2 year of incompetancy to ruin our economy
As for the government’s prediction that
This comment from the OO article on Oate’s “Scoop”.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/gillard-fends-off-questions-on-kirribilli-deal-with-kevin-rudd/comments-e6frgczf-1225892187371
Well there are few here getting excited over a deal that wasn’t done. Most will give it the short shrift it deserves. TP, what a classic and how predictable. The saddest person on election night when Gillard wins will not be Geoff and dovif but TP.
Would be, quite possibly.
But they must be too conscious of the enemies about them to do anything but unite for now.
Settle down. She changed her mind within hours. What difference did such a short time really make to Rudd? Hawke breaking Kirribilli it wasn’t. Anyway, this is where the detail of what was said is very important. Did she really give a commitment and then back out of it?
dovif
I suggest that when the regional processing centre is opened on Timor you paddle over and apply for refugee status.
You sound like a true victim of government brutality, and that you need to escape from Australia. I am sure that there are plenty of countries that would have you. Well, fairly sure.
Frank Calabrese is a case in point – telling those he disagrees with to STFU, for no other reason that he disagrees with them. You’re not a very good advocate for your religion when you carry on like that.
In a lot of blogs you’d be in moderation for that sort of garbage, but perhaps this one has more er liberal policies.
Victoria
You still believe the budget will be in surplus in 3 years ajhahahaha, how much money do you want to put on that… let see
Between May and today, economies in Europe had been asked to slash their deficits, ie Spain, Greece and UK (ie spending on resource), China’s growth had slowed to 10%, BP is near bankrupcy, Economist are saying there might be a double dip recession on the horizon …. with all these good news, Swann had manage to increase the estimate of resource prices and volume …… was that a flying Swann (Pig) I just saw
dovif. I would hardly call the list you have made stuff ups, but you are entitled to your own opinion. I would argue that the biggest stuff up ever, was made by the Howard Govt. following Bush & Co into an illegal invasion of a sovereign country. That is something to me totally unforgivable and hurts me daily on a very emotional level.
At least the labor party had the ticker to oust an unpopular pm, unlike the libs who ran away like frightened rabbits when Howard said boo to them. Pea hearts the lot of ‘em.
A very good performance by Gillard at the press club, very assured and confident.
Lets see how Abbott goes when its his turn “but but but but but we’re not the government and I cant be expected to give that level of detail”.
adrian@3041
Diddums.
Now go back to rigging elections like all good Greens do.
dovif
True, the state of all the other developed economies is deplorable. Abbott would have followed suit but fortunately, he was in opposition.
dovif is becoming more shrill as the election nears.
As for Oakes gotcha moment big deal. So Kev sees the writing on the wall and tries to buy some time by delaying the inevitable. The numbers men say sorry buddy, it’s toxic and it’s too late. On yer bike.
Shock horror!
Boerwar,
dovif are an big expert in the field of knowing stuff.
Lots of countries would want dovif- he could run all their big expertness programs.
He/she’d be snapped up.
Frank Calabrese@3045
Oh and William agreed with me the last time I told TP to STFU.
Need a reminder ?
William Bowe@1919
Boerwar
A detention center in East Timor is a great idea …. except for the fact that we did not tell the East Timor government, until after the announcement.
Gillard did say something about consultancy and that Rudd was not very good at it
TP – did you vote for PM Keating?
dovif.
The figures are from Treasury, that mob that under-estimated budget numbers for decades because they always report conservative numbers.
I reckon the surplus will be much more than $3 billion given Treasury’s track record.
OK
What I know:
1. The challenge was first mooted by a factional leader whose name has not appeared in any media report I’ve read.
2. Gillard did not want to challenge. That was why there was no leadership spill on the Tuesday of the last sitting week, when the media expected there to be.
3. In the following days, the factional leaders told her that, even if she refused to be nominated, they would call a spill and put her name forward.
4. Faced with that, she consulted with Rudd as to how the situation should be handled.
Now I go into speculation, but it’s based on fairly good evidence:
5. Rudd suggested the agreement as outlined. Gillard seized it; she did not want to challenge and she thought it would appease her supporters.
6. Rudd told his people, she told hers. Hers told her nothing had changed; if she did not put her name forward voluntarily, a vote would still be held, a vote Rudd would lose.
7. Faced with that scenario Gillard realised she had to challenge and told Rudd this.
Further speculation, but again on very firm grounds:
8. Rudd’s people knew, Gillard’s people knew about the proposed deal – so so did a lot of other people.
9. The most likely leaker is someone who wants to be seen by the media as a player.
You can believe me or not believe me, I really don’t care. All I can talk about is what I know.
Thomas Paine
You and I were singing from the same book at one point in time. Now you are over baking the issue. If only you could focus on what is best for Australia & that isn’t the Coalition. If you want a demonstration in treachery, deceit and non committal to important issues that affect all of us then look no further than Abbott.
Nikki Savva, Costello’s former staffer these days is talking the same old Coalition rhetoric but I remember her stating that the Rabbott’s views & ideas were so ‘out there’ weird stuff that she wondered how he kept a place in politics. She said he was truly creepy & this was a general consensus among the moderates.
We know how. A lot of sucking up to Howard.
This is the guy who when cabinet knocked back his outrageous spending ideas he stuck his fingers up & marched straight into Howard’s office to get the funds.
The Rabbott has been packaged for wider consumption. God help us if he gets the Prime Ministership.
Give me Gillard any day. And for the record. I don’t think she is dishonest, disloyal or amateurish. That title belongs to the Rabbott.
So the president means nothing eh? Don’t tell him that.
Because, outside the Canberra press gallery, political party membership and regular contributors to political blogs (between which, I suspect, there is considerable overlap), maybe 1% of the population at the very outside, nobody cares.
Nobody cared about Howard and Costello. I suspect (not having been here at the time I don’t know) that nobody cared about Hawke and Keating. I doubt if anybody cared much about the Howard, Downer, Peacock shenanigans. And nobody, electorally speaking, cares about the details of Rudd v Gillard. Maybe they should but they don’t. They really don’t.
This whole Oakes ambush is a storm in a teacup – so what if the antediluvian Laurie asks his ‘gotcha’ question, and the gormless drones in the Murdoch media and their echoes in the ABC rebroadcast this tripe as if it was real news? Whether it is true, or not is surely irrelevant and of zero interest, as whatever was discussed at whatever specific time on that eventful night was obviously subject to alteration in the light of evolving discussions and negotiations on the number of shifting supporters on either side of the equation. It is now a fait accompli, we know the final result, so why is it even of remote interest, or of any relevance to today?
To characterise this sort of leadership discussion, even if it took place as described, as some sort of ‘Kirribili’ agreement is to wholly misunderstand the nature of Party politics. Rudd floats the idea as described by Oakes (which doesn’t sound unreasonable) Gillard and others say “leave that with me, I’ll get back to you” and subsequent negotiations and number counting overtake that offer within hours – where is there anything newsworthy in that?
Rudd did not have the numbers to maintain his leadership on the night as it progressed, and wisely pleaded ‘no contest’ at the Party room meeting the next day – it is as easy and as straight forward as that.
This Oakes furphy is a beat-up, pure and simple, something of no importance conjured from nothing and with no purpose other than to allow Oakes to big note himself – ‘look at me, look at me, I’m important because I’ve got this bit of tawdry gossip!’
This is entirely in keeping with the current abysmal standard of journalism and current affairs reporting in this country, which consists almost entirely of rehashing third hand gossip, sorting through garbage cans, whingeing about whatever pet peeve the individual ‘journalist’ has that day due to some schoolbully-induced paranoia or psychosis, or the narcissistic ramblings of media hacks like the aging Oakes striving to maintain a scintilla of relevance in 2010.
Superannuate him, along with all the other crumbling ancient monuments that are a sad and sorry testament to Murdoch’s takeover, like Grattan, Kelly, O’Brien … having said that, what do we do with the younger ones coming through that have learnt their mendacious trade from watching these old fossils? Anyone remember ‘Logan’s Run?’ – when they turn 30 years of age, send them all to ‘The Carousel!’
I thought one of the last articles Oakes wrote before Kev’s demise was that “Labor is Cactus because of Kevin Rudd and the way he is handling things’.
Oakes has contributed to that impression over the past few months so why is he angry now that Kevin has gone. Is it because of Kevin or is it because Julia has a chance to win the election and Abbott will lose. If Abbott loses will dear ole Rupe be mad with his journos?
Frank, I couldn’t care less what William told you and I have voted ALP all my life so don’t know where greens supposedly rigging elections comes into it.
The trouble with religous fevour is that tends to alienate those not so afflicted.
Victoria
Gillard agreed with me about the stuff ups, the night she backstabbed Rudd
As for the Gulf War, how come I don’t hear anything from the bleeding heart left, when Sadaam was murdering 1 million kurds, for supporting the first gulf war
“He’s a very naughty boy and he should shut the f.. up until after the election.”
We’ll the Labor party should STFU about bagging the guy and his legacy. But I guess that is part of the rough and tumble of politics. If the Labor party want to trash KRudd, his legacy and style of management he is 100% entitled to fight back in his preferred manner.
*Chuckle* “I won’t type the name, but…”
Seriously though- thank you muchly, zoomster, for this and other posts on the subject!
It’s funny to see those who just months ago furiously agreed with each other, tearing each other to shreds. Just goes to demonstrate how far Australian politics has deteriorated when the leader of a party is bigger than the party itself.
dovif, did you vote for Howard knowing he backstabbed Costello?
ruawake
This is also the group that miscalculated the last 2 budget by an average of $25 billions, in OPPOSITE DIRECTION, who are led by Mr Henry… famous for formulating a policy that cost Mr Rudd his job
They are also the people who gave the data to Swan and the RBA, during the GFC, that led Swan to say “inflation genie is out of the bottle” … 3 month before the economy crashed and interest rate was slashed by 4%
As you said, the treasury had not got much right over the last 10 years, so I am not putting much faith in their forcasts
TBS,
Yes. Oakes was playing to the other journos, not the public.
“That’s not a gotcha…this is a gotcha!”
Julia is a far better Prime Minister than Hyacinth.
Gary no unfortunitely I did not vote for Howard at the last election
Big Ship – I thought Grattan’s question was really old fashioned today. She wanted to know whether Kev would be given FA because that’s wher other ex leaders had gone. The question showed a very backward out of date journo.
Is there supposed to be some rule to this? I think not and the Libs say that Kev burnt his bridges with FA so they’ll make a mockery if he ever got it.
Dovif’s TheTruthHurts moment.
Laurie may have discovered his latest scoop by wading about in that verbal sludge that he says spews forth every time Kevin Rudd opens his mouth.
Laurie reveals his riding instructions when describing Abbott as the immensely likeable, attractive, outgoing, easily understood and his strength as a communicator.
Laurie is a lazy hack whose best days are in his past. His latest attempt at being relevant was pathetic. Julia easily picked his presence at the NPC meant a new ambush was planned,the manner in which she dealt with him was spot on.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/political-attack-dog-abbott-must-bite-his-tongue/story-e6frezz0-1225807094497
Not only that but some of these same people are seriously thinking about helping Abbott to get in. So in memory of Rudd they are going to put the very person in that will undo all that Rudd has and wanted to achieve, such as the NBN. Go figure.
ltep
From memory people have always torn each other to shreds on polly bludger, I can remember posting a few times over the years that “we do not play well with others”.
How boring if we were civil little vegemites.
TP
You are officially off the planet
o is that so as i understood it Julia and a long talk with President Horta
before talking to the public.
Did you vote for Howard in 2004 knowing that Howard had done a deal with Costello, one that he had reneged on?
I wonder if Ian MacLachlan could help posters here?
Zoomster at 2054
Your story fits with the information that is publicly available.
And I’m sorry to say that I don’t think Julia had any choice but to change her mind. The destabilisation spiral was irreversible once Julia went into the meeting with Kevin and the faction leaders started ringing around, so she would have been forced to stand for PM in a week or so, if she didn’t that night.
i thought i read that in the msm somewhere this week did i only read half a paragraph then turned to the movie pages
if the above was the case would not his approval rating especially with the female be sky high when actully it is almost at a bottomless pit and come the debates watch it go lower especially with us girls.
Succinctly put Henry.
Where’s Tony?
I heard a novel piece of Opposition spin on the radio this afternoon. Someone, I think most probably Joe Hockey, referred to the “Northern Hemisphere Global Crisis”.
This re-branding conveniently disregards South America, Africa, Indonesia, PNG, New Zealand, Australia etc.
Another sign of Opposition desperation, perhaps.
If “Northern Hemisphere Global Crisis”, as a new meme, is mentioned by anyone interviewing Government people, I look forward to it being smacked down immediately.
Doing the one thing he does well.
Nothing!
so she did the correct thing to get it over and done with
the same as these ramblings here.
STrangers read here to you know.
now it would be nice to take the great positives that JUla mentioned in stead of joining the msm .’
Perhaps we could have some i mentioned a few can any one else mention them
or forgot them already. geeeeeeeeee
BK,
Just how many pockets does his wallet contain?
Maybe the Higgs Boson will be found in one…
Just viewed the Oakes bit again, Julia made a joke about Laurie actually being at the Press Club – then a ripple of applause from the audience. The look on Oakes face when faced with the derision of his peers was priceless.
Helen2
The GFC was mostly about developed countries. Most of these are in the Northern Hemisphere. Countries like Brazil and Indonesia have done relatively well. OTOH some northern hemisphere countries, such as China, have done well in the GFC.
The other odd one out is New Zealand which has had a very tough time of it.
Hilarious. And they call Labor the champion spinners. This is right up there with the ‘temporary levy’ and ‘investment in human capital’.
No, I said it was eloquently put. And even if I did agree, who cares? It’s not as if you’ve valued my opinion at other times.
not that i know of Helen but they[ the opposition} said nothing happend or if it did dont do anything about it.,
they fail to tell us that 25 million people are out of work in europe and most went in to recession except was it Norway Sweden etc o and they have a rspt well one of them does any way.
i wonder if Mr Hockey knows that..
William Bowe@3090
But you didn’t object to me saying it – I call that an agreement
What is the overall opinion of the questions today.
I loved the way laura tingle got it on track and actully ask things we NEED to know
Oops! Re my 3083, of course I meant to say I heard him use the expression “Northern Hemisphere Financial Crisis”.
Do we have a world economy or a two hemisphere economy Joe?
doesnt he usually come
so the opposition treasurer did not know there where problems in south America south Africa new Zealand ? Asian countries and did he mention only europe what about the USA
and would of been big time problems here if the gov had listened to him doooooooooooo nothing.
Hardly ever.
Unless he has had a good leak before hand Ru.
Hmm If you Google “Northern Hemisphere Financial Crisis” you will find it on Bolts blog.
Sloppy Joe has morphed his “Rudd Recession” (it’s in Hansard) into his “Northern Hemisphere Finacial Crisis”.
Well done, Joe.
I liken the Swannie’s budget will be in surplus in 3 years times promise, to the NSW ALP’s promise of building transport infrastructure after the election, both will be canned after the election… because the money is not there
Swannie …. well the price of Coal and Iron did not triple like our estimate…. who would have throught that would happen
NSW premier …. 2010, 2006 and 2002 … the NW rail line is canned because of insufficient funding
But wasn’t it the claim of Peter Costello that the oncoming ‘economic tsunami’ would require his economic skills to manage? If it was only a northern hemisphere problem wouldn’t this contradict his ‘tsunami’ prediction?
Gee, I just got a call from a friend who is a carer.
They said they were paid $1096 carers bonus & $600 carers supplement.
Anyone hear anything about this???
I suppose that the Coalition sat down and said “…a lot of people know that Europe and America had a bad GFC, so how can we make out that the Australian situation was nothing like theirs?”
Then a hesitant voice piped up “Er, aren’t America and Europe both in the North? Australia is in the South…that’s the complete other side of the map……”
No further suggestions were received.
From Senator Way Too Young via LetUsRejoice:
Dee
Its $600 bucks for Carer payment and $600 for Carer supplement if you get both (most do) its $1,200. It was paid last year as well.
Another of the things Rudd did that have been ignored.
Audio of Oakes Question:
http://media.theaustralian.com.au/multimedia/audio/100715-oakes.mp3
Kersebleptes
The saddest thing is when I have clients tell me that Australia was never in danger from the GFC, that the ALP made up the danger that faced Australia.
Lucky I have self control as I do find myself imagining squeezing their throats just a little bit. Grrrrrrrr……
I have just had a look at the Liberal Party web site. Apart from some slogans (the 12 point contract) there are no detailed policies. I thought they had some. Is that I am too dopey to navigate the site, or is that none of their policies are actually on their web site?
signed
perplexed.
ps off to the Labor site to see what I can find out there.
ruawake
I think it is admirable to reward the carers. They save governments more than they receive.
Well, the Labor site has detailed policies. Does anyone happen to know whether the Liberals actually have policies on their site?…
Dee
Ms ru is deciding how to spend her $1,200.
Dee,
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/07/11/galaxy-52-48-to-labor-2/comment-page-62/#comment-521210
I would be very interested to read this if you have a link please.
Andrew Robb is being a blithering idiot on Sky.
Part of a comment from the article by a BBC Sydney correspondent re Oz political leadership -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/nickbryant/2010/07/the_australian_ugliness_2.html
Lieberal much?
What’s so special about Sky, rua?
Boerwar
They reckon they won’t release detailed policies because the ALP will pinch them.
he, he, he, ha, ha,ha,……………………………………
The Pacific Solution was old policy that they promised never to return to. A backflip? Oh never!
I suspect that all they will do is roll back to Howard’s policy era with a bit of tinkering.
The Rabbott is physically fit but intellectually lazy.
so you know that do you . How who told you
Dee – I watched Shorten giving speech at the Sydney Institute on disability issues. I think he really is trying to make a difference and definitely trying to get the community to understand the problems.
Didn’t hear him say anything about the bonus etc. but I was interrupted by phonecall so may have missed that bit.
Dee
That must be it. I have just searched their web site. It even has thought bubble shapes with a name of a policy on it. When you click on the though bubble it takes you to a page… with the thought bubble name on it again.
All very strange.
But the good news is I have found Tony. He is right near the thought bubbles.
Ooops.
dovif
As a re-elected Labor government becomes more and more likely you are starting to sound more and more desperate. Keep clutching at straws old chum but prepare yourself for a very long fall with a massive thud when you hit bottom.
Isn’t this a backflip. I heard her saying a few weeks ago that they will leave everyone to make up their own minds.
I wonder how many preferences they’ll give to St Bob’s new friend, Tone’s Party.
dovif, why didn’t you vote for howard in 2007?
Oh and you vote for Howard in 2004 knowing that Howard had done a deal with Costello, one that he had reneged on?
“Andrew Robb is being a blithering idiot on Sky”
Standard performance from A Robb
William rest assured we all value your opinions!
just not all the time
Take 2 – Oh and DID you vote for Howard in 2004 knowing that Howard had done a deal with Costello, one that he had reneged on?
Education Policy – Students will learn slogans
Welfare Policy – Welfare for Slogans
Aged Policy – Pension for Slogans
Media Policy – Media will play Slogans
Foreign Policy – Negotiate with Slogans
“Slogans for Bogans”
“The saddest thing is when I have clients tell me that Australia was never in danger from the GFC, that the ALP made up the danger that faced Australia.”
This and the “Northern Hemisphere Crisis” line are ones that the Fibs are going to push as much as they can. They need to discredit the ALP’s handling of the GFC and Stimulus.
Problem for them is that a lot of people with Super and money invested did suffer quite large losses. Also, a lot of the stimpac stuff has been noticed by people at a grass roots level and they approve.
Problem for the ALP is that there are also a lot of mortgage payers out there who kept their jobs and who’s interest rates plummeted for a time.
Libs are such tossers!
Is this little whipper snapper the son of Shamahan?
Graham Young:
The contract idea is pinched from the US Republicans – right down to the American coins used in the graphics.
Hey Sloppy Joe! Come over here and tell me face to face that there has been no financial crisis in Australia. Tell me why my superannuation fund is rooted.
You flake!
imacca, Any interviewer worth his or her salt will pint out that the G in GFC stands for GLOBAL.
Cuppa
Sorry I don’t have a link. I remember reading it in the Drum when the Rabbott rolled Turnbull.
pint = point
obviously
some on here put joe hockey name recently i belive he is origianlly from eastern eurorope
what was it again i alway wonder because after all his parents may have been
refugees does any one know
so joe will give me back the 80 th we lost over the time we trasfered to cash as there was nothing happening here.
So no poll date announced today. Any bets on tomorrow? I don’t think Labor needs to make a major speech about CC before an election is called. Obviously a major statement on that subject needs to be made in the first two weeks of a campaign.
No worries Dee. Can you remember any key words by any chance?
Gillard alluded to some unpopular spending cuts to be announced during the campaign to help fund new spending measures. Any thoughts on what might fall on either side of the ledger?
Hmm:
Katherine Murphy made a good point on Agenda, all the political journos had a version of what Oakes asked, except he said it on National TV. Plus that it may be a boutique issue to the Press Gallery but no-one else cares.
PM breaks a big story? Howard lost the last election?
Gary
take 162
I did not vote for Latham because I think he was an imbacile and a moron, which I think every Laborites in here agrees. I also throught that Howard, if he was smart would hand the prime ministership to Costello and regenerate the Liberal brand … he was not smart
Boerwar:
Do they still have those links where they ask you to come up with suggestions for their policies? That was my favourite bit. They’re outsourcing policy formulation to the community at large.
It could be that their days are currently filled up with rebranding terms and inventing slogans.
It seems Adrian and TP have found their nstural home in the Born Again Rudd Fan Club aka LP, who before the change were all but declaring the election gone cos of Rudd:
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2010/07/15/laurie-oakes-claims-kevin-rudd-proposed-a-kirribilli-style-deal-to-julia-gillard-on-24-june/
Still, I bet he can spell imbecile. And he doesn’t get his singulars mixed up with his plurals all the time.
is it somthing to do with rudd i really hope not
i hope its timor
ok whos listening
Aguirre
I didn’t get to that bit, if it is still there. It is certainly all web design 101.
“Turnbull To Challenge Abbott For Liberal Leadership”?
Brian Loughnane is insane.
http://resources.news.com.au/files/2010/07/15/1225892/295102-aus-file-bitarletter.pdf
Tone x 3 bring it on.
is this a gift to us or not
Turnbull was about as popular as abbott at the moment for differnt reasons.
O dear quick what do the expert think
Oh, Lucy CARTER.
I was joking, My Say.
Julia will annouce the election and then they would have to change all their slogans and what else’
and their election material,
PM headline Blance D’apluget does not like Paul.
WHERE YOU I HAVE JUST SENT AN EMAIL TO FRIEND SHE WILL THINK I AM CRAZY
GGEE
From sloppy:
And that’s how rumours start! Let’s hope this one goes viral!
And this gem:
so this is it what / is the book available at the abc shop
That, and camping in ABC newsrooms.
Fulvio Sammut@3163
Just Twittered it
Er Joe the first was in 2008.
Hockey confirms he expects a 3 term Labor Govt.
and all the abc can come up with is that some one else doesn’t like some one else.
well now i off to do some tassie scollop’s for tea to make your all jealous
gees your quick tweet that back to him
or to someone any way..
I suspect that this might be due to their being so cash strapped and non-tech savvy that the graphics are some generic template from a proprietary software package (MS Word? Publisher? Websites for Dummies?). Not that I wouldn’t do the same if I were some hapless staffer, tasked with putting together a website with zero resources and zero budget, but I’m not trying to present myself as the alternative government.
PM is as usual a rehash of the day’s news for those who haven’t been listening throughout the day.
“There’s nothing new here – move along, move along now…”
Cuppa
Have to cook tea. Will have a look after.
Possibly google Nikki Savva & Tony Abbott
Mackay and Townsville… we will be getting lots of visits from the Gillard up here I reckon after the GBNT balls up.
These are the seats that matter, not the inner latte city seats.
Could it be Rudd is quitting parliament?
so sloppy heads for truthy town
I reckon they are not looking too healthy there as well
my say@3171
Done
Speaking of Joe Hockey, I reckon that photo of him, walking crestfallen and deflated down Howard’s back steps, after seeking his approval to challenge Turnbull and being rebuffed, is the funniest quasi caracature I have ever seen.
Yeah Tony Mooney…. the bloke voted OUT by the Townsvillians at the Council elections now wants to try his luck at a federal level.
Apparantly Townsvillians don’t want him running our city, but Labor thinks we will want him running our country. Are they completely bloody stupid?
At least one inhabitant of Townsville is.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/gillard-speech-cops-green-flak/story-e6frgczf-1225892267243
Well not really, this is an issue for the Greens as a political party, when the raving loonies in the environment fringe are mistaken for the Greens.
TTH
Fulvio, Had he been rebuffed at that stage? I thought that Howard was egging on Hockey while promising privately to back Abbott. The main game was to destroy Turnbull.The rodent never played it straight even with his disciples.
Apparently the reason the LNP boned the candidate in Griffith is because he advocated the removal of the old age pension.
Won’t be the first time I’ve got it wrong then, Tom.
But the expression on the clownish face was priceless.
RU
he probably backed the GST rise to between 15/20% that abbott wants
Desperation point has been exceeded at the OO. They’ll be throwing themselves out of office windows before the election.
Hinch on Oakes so called scoop.
http://www.3aw.com.au/blogs/3aw-generic-blog/gillard-will-take-it-to-the-grave/20100715-10c4h.html
If Julia Gillard is such a good debater and has such a good record to fight an election on why not have 3 debates with Tone?
[Hinch] is a drunk
Couldn’t he just say he was bouncing ideas around or that it wasn’t the gospel truth?
She will – unless the mercy rule is applied mid way through the 2nd debate.
I still say a third with Tone saying “but, but, but, but, but…ahh, look…look…come on Julia” will most likely do wonders for the ALP primary vote.
If I was Brian Loughnane I would want Abbott to do one debate. Preferably with questions from a hand picked list of Press Gallery journos.
Abbott is very easily flustered by off topic questions so it needs to be tightly scripted. That is why I think he is insane to want 3. It also shows that they have a rigid campaign strategy that has not or cannot change to the new dynamic.
Gillard and Tone have clashed on morning TV every week for yonks. She knows all his tricks and how to negate them. She will make mincemeat out of him.
If Julia Gillard is such a good debater and has such a good record to fight an election on why not have 3 debates with Tone?
Agree – look forward to Tony rocking up late, abusing his opponent, being completely unprepared and totally negative throughout. Why he wants to debate when it is actually a strong negative for him is bizzare.
I think that Loughnane email is a Labor Grech.
He’s not that mad.
Nobody is.
Ahh Tone – now about your role in dumping Turnbull:
Zoom ,
1/ my info and sense gives one variaton to your excellent sumary below , AND 2/ EXPOSES Laurie Oakes to unwitt repeating a LIE from his “souse”:
zoomster
Posted Thursday, July 15, 2010 at 3:35 pm | Permalink
“OK
What I know:
1. The challenge was first mooted by a factional leader whose name has not appeared in any media report I’ve read. (yep)
2. Gillard did not want to challenge. That was why there was no leadership spill on the Tuesday of the last sitting week, when the media expected there to be. (yep)
3. In the following days, the factional leaders told her that, even if she refused to be nominated, they would call a spill and put her name forward.(yep)
4. Faced with that, she consulted with Rudd as to how the situation should be handled. (NO, she relayed what was being said by unhappy Caucus/factional leeders)
Now I go into speculation, but it’s based on fairly good evidence:
5. Rudd SUGGESTED the agreement as outlined.
(yep “he was buying time” , he knew Caucus MP numbers were against him)
Gillard seized it; she did not want to challenge and she thought it would appease her supporters.
(Ron NO, I beleive she agreed to NOTHING, this is th Oakes sourced LIE !!
I beleive Julia indicated she wuld think about RUDD’s compromise offer & seek counsel)
6. Rudd told his people (but HIS VERSION), she told hers (but HER VERSION).
Hers told her nothing had changed; if she did not put her name forward voluntarily, a vote would still be held, a vote Rudd would lose.
(Ron yep , but VERY also crucialy that Rudd’s offer was “buying time” that could NOT be believed seeing an election was due within 4 months & that a PM can call elkction anytime himself as well )
7. Faced with that scenario (including th additionql risks I’ve added) , Gillard realised she had to challenge and told Rudd this. (and yep , Juliawould hav been politcaly naive to decide othrwise !)
Further speculation, but again on very firm grounds:
8. Rudd’s people knew, Gillard’s people knew about the proposed deal – so so did a lot of other people. (yep)
9. The most likely leaker is someone who wants to be seen by the media as a player ”
( yep , or an unhappy suporter a la as an eg th Member for Flynn)
so at end of day , 115 Caucus MP’ beleived on inteernal polling and qualatative focus polling Labor was going to lose or was at great risk This happened to Hawkie with Keating challenge where Caucus MP’s rolled a sitting PM…However Kevin07′s wonderful PM record (as with Hawkie’s) however should not be shite on by anyone
Unions Boo.
Labor should offer him five, if it’s genuine.
Fulvio Sammut@3197
It’s real – on Lib Letterhead – and he says he’ll make the letter public.
http://resources.news.com.au/files/2010/07/15/1225892/295102-aus-file-bitarletter.pdf
Frank that is prolly a good debate question as it goes to both Ms Gillard’s and Tone’s credibility.
Well, I don’t see why not.
I’m not convinced that debates have much bearing on election outcomes though. JWH was regularly soundly trounced by whichever leader Labor were pinning their hopes on that year and still won. If there was any negative result from his last one, it came not so much from his own dreadful performance but from the shot of Downer and Costello, grinning like sixth formers who’ve overdone the cheap cider at lunchtime.
I think slightly more people care about debates than give a rat’s about internal party machinations, but I wouldn’t want to put it to a show of hands unless there was a really huge gaffe or a major, shock policy announcement.
Channel Nine News advertising the “Laurie Oakes bombshell”. LOL
Yes, Julia should go for the maximum possible number of debates and deliberately steer them off-topic. Abbott will uhm, ahh and but but himself to oblivion.
Still make for good TV for us junkies
Too right, Glen.
Off the subject I get the impression that you couldn’t care less which party governs provided they are competent. Am I right?
I hope we get Minister v Shadowy like last election.
Yes but since neither Tony Abbott nor Ms Gillard have been shown to competent throughout the life of this Parliament.
It’s kind of the election I shall call a Catch-22 Election. Either way the Australian people lose.
I only want a competent government and opposition.
We have neither.
So the more carnage the better IMHO for both sides
I am rooting for a hung parliament to be honest as both sides are rubbish!
Yup, The ALP should offer 3 debates, press club, and all questions without notice from the floor.
This is a format that Gillard has shown that she handles well and if Tone is too gutless and doesnt like it then they can STFU about debates. Of course if he wont play then the ALP can make hay with it during the campaign, or simply have Gillard turn up to do a speech and answer questions (alla Roxon 2007??).
What on earth do the Libs think they can gain from having ANY debates at all??
Oh, and another condition should be that if they want leaders debates, then all the ministers get to debate their shadows ay least once.
He he, why was he tweeting Latika “deeply off record” ? It stands out like dogs whatsits that they cannot get people to stand.
The ALP nor the Libs should offer anything. We need an independent debates commission. So the things dont become politicised.
Glen
The Mass Debates Commission?
Yup
They’re the body that also handles port noise complaints, aren’t they?
I’m sure they wouldnt allow GP hooting as he does on QANDA.
Kersebleptes
Doll. Very droll.
Doll = Droll
And no wonder we call it Their ABC:
BK,
I couldn’t resist!
That old Redgum song about the rise of Hawke (the one to the G&S tune) should be getting another run at the moment- he “could shout down opponents in a mass debate”.
i would love to see a debate with all shadow in prime time tv on every channel
i was thinking to day if this was the US they would of had julia on every tv in the bars airports ect.
why dont we do that here they say Americans are less switched on with their politics than here but i wonder some times perhaps they are just more patriotic
Kersebleptes
Plus the Bates family Mr and Mrs Bates, daughter Miss Bates and son who will be cured of it soon.
But on a serious note, the election debate issue is a sign of inflexabilty in my view. The Libs thought they could hammer Rudd over the issue, probably correct, but times have changed.
Loughnane’s knee jerk response is a bit silly, it is like he has plucked plan 27B out of the drawer without thinking it through.
Unless he really does believe Abbott will land a few more punches on Gillard than she will on Abbott. If he does he is a twit.
Ewwww, both their voices get on my nerves. Julia’s got the twang, but it’s not so bad since she had some coaching in that regard. The Rabbott is worse, with the grating tonal quality (actually, it’s a lack of tonal quality), the mangled grammatical constructions strewn with “umms”, “aaahs” and distracting pauses. Not to mention the evasion, the non-answers, the fibbing, the speaking in patronising monosyllables, and those infernal slogans. It’s incredibly irritating to listen to.
I reckon he will have a high burnout factor with journos and others who have to work with his voice snippets daily – producers, editors, interviewers etc. The media are going to go off this tool before long. And the public – he is never going to be a big hit with the public (rusted-on automatons excepted).
Kersebleptes@3221
You mean this one ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QiLQwAzGyaQ
Glorious, Frank.
Haven’t heard it for yonks!
Was Laurie’s Question a cunning plan to promote this ?
9the_kennel
Channel 9′s new election coverage promo http://bit.ly/aKhZWj reveals that it’s all just about Laurie Oakes! #ausvotes 1 minute ago via web
Oh and I reckon Laurie’s “Source” was none other than Rudd’s former Right Hand Man Lachlan Harris – you know, the bloke who was counting the numbers that morning.
“Julia’s got the twang”
I quite like a good twang?
But seriously, Abbooot has the nervous cackle which is downright creepy.
Also, at what point would Julia bring out the line about carefully scripted remarks / gospel truth?? The wait that particular seed sown in ingnorance by Tones to blossom would be excruciating, but in a kinky, fun kind of way.
Channels 9, 7 and 10 political journos are crapping themselves, they have seen Sky News get kudos over the past couple of years and now they have ABC 24 on the horizon.
What future does a FTA commercial politics journo have?
Knowing how he goes postal when Labor talks about him cutting a billion dollars out of health, she’s sure to bring that one up too.
Mark Riley could try out for Hey Hey It’s Saturday.
I remember a character of Magda Szubanski’s (for reasons that escape me, she was a drunken bonneted plaided Scottish member of the Canberra Press Gallery) who woke up after a big night saying that she felt like she’d been hit by a ‘lorry’.
Turned out she had- Laurie Oakes…
At least once in each debate.
Well, time for today’s score.
The Evans own goal has died down fairly quickly.
Smith came up empty-handed in Indonesia – about what you would expect in terms of the timelines.
Gillard did a job on Nauru, making Abbott looking slightly silly on the topic.
Abbott and Hockey maintaining the theme of negativity.
Remours that Brough will return and that Rudd will not run in his seat are good for the Coalition and bad for Labor.
The Gillard set piece was going excellently well and her responses to questions were all good to excellent. Gillard has established a reasonable case for being reasonable economic managers. All very responsible.
Then Oakes struck. There are two worrying elements here for Labor. The first is that there were three items about Rudd on the news today:
(1) Rudd capering with Moon (why? he is a back bencher)
(2) Rumours about Rudd pulling the pin on running for his seat
(3) Leaks about the Faulkner, Rudd, Gillard meeting.
Once again there is a pattern of someone who is destablising Labor and stopping Gillard from getting clear air.
Win to Abbott by default: 2 points
Cumulative score after day nine: Abbott 9; Gillard 9.
Boerwar
You are clinically bonkers.
rua
You are surely not arguing that today was a win for Gillard?
Maybe TP and Boerwar could form a new club:
‘The Society of Clinically Bonkers PB Posters’ = SCBPP
So far they have a President and Vice President…. anyone else care to apply?
but a 2 point win to Abbott???
Tom Hawkins@3237
All the posters here – well at least two of our numbers are on that thread.
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2010/07/15/laurie-oakes-claims-kevin-rudd-proposed-a-kirribilli-style-deal-to-julia-gillard-on-24-june/
Boerwar.
Have you taken something strange?
Gillard has had a great day.
What did Abbott do today to gain 2 points?
The best Nine News can report on is that JG refused to answer Oakes’ question. Wow.
(1) Rudd capering with Moon (why? he is a back bencher)
Rudd is in the US as a backbench member of the Oz Yank friendship mob, he was a member in opposition.
(2) Rumours about Rudd pulling the pin on running for his seat
Even the State Sec of the LNP does not believe Rudd will not stand, yet you do? The LNP guy was shafted because his views on Pensioners was made public.
(3) Leaks about the Faulkner, Rudd, Gillard meeting.
What leaks, every journo in Canberra knew what Oakes said all from differing sources.
NEXT.
“What did Abbott do today to gain 2 points?”
Remained largley unseen and kept his foot out of his mouth??
Glen what are your views re Sarah Henderson, the candidate for corgangamite.
He did do a presser today, except it was ignored.
Except by their ABC no doubt.
This is Lucy Carter’s breaking news.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/15/2954955.htm?section=justin
Very favourable report for Gillard by Hugh Riminton on Channel Ten. Laurie Oakes’s line of inquiry at the NPC garnered one sentence in passing (professional jealousy, perhaps).
Some people spend far too much time consuming media.
Read a book! I can recommend a few.
Well I’m sorry BW, you were doing quite well until today. But this is absurd. You seriously think the swinging voters care about who said what to whom at a meeting three weeks ago?
William Bowe@3249
And it showed Tony talking to a woman of senior years asking why Refugees were being housed in 4 star hotels and Abbott sort of agreeing and saying somethin g like “our Guys are….”
Well I think we can all say now with some confidence that Gillard and Abbott are equal on the credibility stakes.
SBS and 9 (Adelaide) had the “Gillard refuses to confirm or deny a meeting with Rudd…” as the main discussion from today. Channel 7 had Gillard talking about the economy and her Bob Keating quip, then Abbott talking about O’Farrell’s stuff-up, with Oakes’ question at the end. Channel 10′s was favourable to Gillard, mentioning the economy + Swan’s surplus as “another box ticked off before an election announcement”.
BW is doing (unconsciously perhaps) what the MSM do every day i.e. trying to create the impression of an even contest between a race horse (Gillard) and a mangy nag (Abbott) on its way to to the knackery.
FC, Mrs Brady the Old Lady’s complaint about asylum seekers flowed into a complaint about our soldiers being in Afghanistan. Tony Abbott’s reference to “our guys” was in answer to that.
Thomas Paine@3253
Oh so you’ve taken a break from your new home at the Kevin Ruudd wuz Robbed (but only 6 weeks ago we hated his guts) club over at LP?
Talk about Weather Vanes and Flip Floppers.
I base my score on agenda+the nature of the media narratives+intuition.
There were four agendas today. (1) asylum seekers, (2) you can’t trust Labor/economic credibilty and (3) assassination. My simple rule is that agendas are, in themselves, a win or a loss. Two out of the three agendas are wins for Abbott. Economic credibility/you can’t trust Labor with the economy are line ball. But remember that most people think that the Coalition are better economic mangers, so economic credibility is at best only just a draw for Labor.
Now for the narratives. The narratives on asylum seekers was residual Evans own-goaled and Smith got nowhere in Indonesia= a loss for Gillard. In relation to the Rudd sacking, Gillard was left looking like a shag on a rock. It didn’t matter what she said, she was a goner on the topic. The news stories have varied from she welshed on the deal to she won’t confirm or deny. Keating and Hawke acting like spoiled kids does not help. Either way, these stories are a loss to Gillard. The narrative on economic credibility was contested territory. Gillard had a story but so did Hockey. Punters will take their pick of these narratives. Not a clear win for Gillard.
Intuition: today was a bad day for Gillard. Tomorrow’s papers are going to be full of the assassination.
Put it all together and it is a clear win for Abbott. He is winning because of Labor’s penchant for own goals.
Did Tone tell Mrs Brady that he wants to send more of “our guys” to Afghanistan?
William Bowe@3256
Ahh, thought as much – was a bit hard to hear clearly.
whoops should have said three agendas
TP, and both well above yours based on your postings since the change of PM.
Boerwar
Yep, bonkers for sure. Four Agendas.
Bit like the Spanish Inquisition.
Grog on Today’s event’s.
Of course we all know it, but it has been blatantly obvious this week that the media are fabricating a very tight race so that people are interested. How boring was it when Rudd kept pulling off 60-40-esque poll numbers? Leading up to 2004, Latham got a great run in the media. I expect the Opposition to have a softer run, but it’s Abbott.
rua
I am starting to feel like Shanners…
I see. If you don’t support Gillard Labor you cannot have credibility. Those who have lost credibility are the weather veins.
I wonder what you will all say if Gillard loses? Chances are you will assassinate her in the same fashion.
This Gillard pinata still has lot more beating in it.
Boerwar, as long as you don’t look like him…
You decided to keepthe score, credit for that. But you are bonkers.
TP, I see that when one supports Tony Abbott having greater credibility than yourself you have a problem.
Thomas Paine@3267
Aren’t you needed at your new playgroup ? The Born Agaiun Ruddites aka LP ?
really how do you know then
What is Gillard Labor? She is the elected leader, elected by the Parliamentary Labor Party. She is the Prime Minister becuase of this.
Don’t like it, vote for someone else.
Sorry Glen cannot agree.
This govt is competent for the most part. The difference is that its flaws have been transparent, unlike JWH who hid things until well after the fact when the issues would have no impact.
ruawake@3273
Problem is every other Party’s leader is elected the same way – he’ll have no one to vote for except for an independent.
Aha. So Kev has been on the blower to Laurie Oakes, fabricating a Kirribili agreement.
Yawn.
marktwain@3276
Or his Right Hand Man Lachlan Harris.
My money’s on Our Kev. Unless Lachlan is looking for a job at Channel Nine, which is not beyond the bounds of possibility.
And … if nothing else, our current economic condition tells us this govt is competent.
To allow us to go down the gurgler, as the Libs would have done, would have been extreme incompetence. The only positive they’d have been able to spout is that they kept interest rates low because following the coalitions suggestions about spending, the rate would currently be 0.5% — an extra million would be out of work but hey, they’d keep interest rates low!
Frank
I am interested – you have nominated Lachlan twice… any particular reason?
The main difference in the way the media is reporting this Labor Government compared to the Howard years (particularly 2000-2005) is that today’s Opposition gets massive, massive exposure. When Howard was PM, unless it was a massively contentious issue, the Opposition was a footnote. Not because they were necessarily a crap opposition (that’s another debate anyway) but because the media didn’t report on them.
These days we get the Opposition Coalition response to a Labor policy/issue BEFORE the policy/issue is even reported.
Perfect example:
Why is the rebuttal reported before the fact?!
marktwain@3278
Remember Julia only decided to challenge after Rudd sent Lachlan to start doing the numbers to gauge his support.
He was Kev’s spinmeister for years? He still feels loyalty to Kev and setting the record straight? He’s looking for a job?
Tick all of the above.
Boerwar i dont really get your scoring
surely its what people perceive my oh saw abbott talking and just shook his head.
then when heard about keating and hawke he said what are they on about and kept reading his vintage car mag.
so its really what people care about i would think.
Now If it was me and of course i am not very good at this because i cannot stand anything other s do I would say Julia won the day for looking beautiful talking very intellengenly and talking about going forward and being proud australians and not always looking for the negative side of things. wtte
and that she values education so much and will keep doing so and that will be the platform of her goals wtte.
So to me there is 7/10 she did look a little nervous but who could blame her
as time goes on and they stop asking days of our lives questions things will be good.
if no one turned up ( and that seems odd)_ to tone presser how can he have scored anything.
Yes Stephen smith did not get what he wanted in Indonesia but still talking to timor
where it matters.
so that a plus also
While I’m a fan of Peter Hartcher and Phil Coorey and their brand of journalism, I’m still not entirely convinced by this argument, Frank.
Boerwar@3280
Because Kev sent him to do the numbers on the day of the challenge.
No one “won” today. This scoring is as pointless as ABC24 is going to end up being.
Ever thought of running as a Liberal and then taking on Finance?
You’re watching too much telly, BW. Read a book. The narratives are far more convincing when it comes to your better sort of author.
Only cos he had no one else.
Scoring will only start once the campaign officially begins. Until then, it is basically MSM All, Govt nil.
Right now, Julia is simply connecting. Something Tone cannot do.
Fredn, yeah I hope she wins. We need more women in the Liberal Party.
I should really stop saying ‘we’ since I am no longer a party member.
Wish Brough got Fisher and not Griffiths!
I don’t know if anyone has mentioned this already, but I saw Robb on Agenda this afternoon.
His blathering (only term for it) was so painful, I have revised my opinion about the amount of exposure the Libs are getting.
So long as they keep talking so incompetently they are playing into the govt’s hands. One must question the MSM’s smarts though — I am sure Gilbert was thinking ‘get me outa here!’ during the interview.
The Liberals could not and did not keep interest rates low last time they were in office during a major global slowdown. The early 1980s under treasurer John Howard saw rates hit double digits, inflation in double digits and unemployment in double digits – all at the same time. The only case in history where all three indicators have gone into double digits simultaneously. Plus Australia’s worst recession since the Great Depression!!
jenauthor
I mentioned the Rob interview, he was incoherent. In fact he was worse than that. Lucky Joe was in Townsville today for last weekends V8 car race, he really needs to keep a low profile or he will need to open a Pie Shop in McLaren Street.
Who’s calling ABC24 pointless? I bet the Liberal Party won’t.
I’ll see if I can get him for you.
i will say: “will you marry me?”
If its ok for people in the Labor party to leak private polling to Bolt then Kev’s or his staffers are entirely justified in lekaing what they want about whatever deal was done. good on him shows he is keen to fight back.
From where I sit, it seems Oakes is deliberately stirring the pot for personal reasons. Perhaps he is angry that he WASN’T given the exclusive on the leadership change, and is venting.
Nothing worse than a petulant journo
jenauthor@3300
I tend to agree – especially as the story was broken by the ABC and poor Laurie was reduced to breaking into Hey Hey it’s Saturday.
Most political stories that appear in the media has been planted by politicians. It’s how it works.
This is news?
I am intrigued by what zoomster said at 3054 in his chronology of events for the coup.
‘What I know:
1. The challenge was first mooted by a factional leader whose name has not appeared in any media report I’ve read.’
Who is this Mr X? I am mystified. Most of them have been mentioned. eg the below list from Tony Wright. And earlier in the article he mentions Arbib and Bitar.
‘Other factional dealers in on the plot were Victorian right-wingers Bill Shorten and Senator David Feeney, and South Australian hard man Senator Don Farrell, also of the Right but who once formed an alliance called The Machine with his state’s Left to destroy the Centre-Left. Senator Kim Carr of Victoria’s Left was another crucial player in swinging support behind Gillard’.
Only Joe Ludwig is not mentioned. If Joe was the first mover, then that may implicate Swan.
Not at all — but I think Laurie sees himself as the first cab off the rank. In recent times he hasn’t had the scoop the way he used to. He might be turning into a grumpy old man because of it.
So, apart from Laurie Oakes wishing to demonstrate his importance, his connections and his own belief in his capacity to re-frame the political narrative, what exactly has been demonstrated here other than the fourth estate believing they are players?
What on earth did he expect from JG other than, wtte, I’m not going to play your game? What a waste of time.
Honestly guys — these behind the scenes machinations — do we care that much?
It is past history.
Greetings HSO
jenauthor@3300
Oakes isn’t ‘stirring the pot’ jenauthor. He obviously got copper-bottomed information about the details of what happened leading up to the knifing. What is he supposed to do? Let it go through to the keeper? (Australia 4/149)
Labor people calling Oakes ‘petulant’ for asking perfectly reasonable questions based on his information is a little, well, petulant. Unless you think he should have called Labor headquarters first for clearance?
Its like a soap opera, jenauthor. Of course these details are irrelevant to the big issues, but its fun to speculate.
jenauthor
As I said earlier today. I don’t see what the problem is or the big ‘breaking news’ heralded as some revelation of treachery.
From my point of view this leak vindicated the party & perhaps that is what the leak was meant to do.
Rudd was not ambushed as some or many of us thought. He was actually contemplating standing down if the polls continued to slide.
OK, so he wanted to hang out for a few more polls but this close to an election Julia would not have had the time to introduce herself to the electorate. The switch would have been too close.
The fact that they were all discussing this contradicts the story that he was executed without warning. Julia may have been reluctant but the caucus could see that if the polls did not improve or get worse it would be too late. The fact that Rudd was considering his position reflects just how dire he thought the situation was.
jaundiced 3308 – 100% on the money. If Oakes didn’t report the Costello/Howard rumblings (earthquakes is more accurate) in 2006/7 then we’d lambast him.
The trouble with speculating is sometimes some of it rubs off as ‘truth’ to those who are less aware. Or those who want to believe it because it fits well with their own agendas.
That is what the press and opposition are currently counting on. It is how they’ve been operating for the past year or so with a fair degree of success.
Look at all the misinformation that has paraded as truth, that has been swallowed by Joe Public. We wouldn’t be having the Asylum Seeker discussions otherwise.
And because of it, the main game worldwide right now, the economy doesn’t get a proper look in.
If things were in the current situation during JWH’s time — the ONLY narative would be the brilliance of the govt for saving our necks. But no, we’re postulating on, who did what one night in the back room of the PM’s office — and scaring the bejeezus out of the poor people in the western subs of Sydney because boat people were obviously going to sneak into their backyard and steal their barbecue.
Our future head of state on AGW deniers.
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=7930108
jenauthor@3313
While I do not accept for a minute that the media is in an alliance with the Libs (with the constant exception of Murdoch of course) against the government, I agree that the images on TV of boats arriving on a regular basis, and the right-wing carry-on about it every time, has made it into an issue. What has been lacking has been leadership from the government to neutralise the hype.
Gillard should take note of a couple of pieces of advice about leadership as she ponders an election in a policy vacuum:
“All of the great leaders have had one characteristic in common: it was the willingness to confront unequivocally the major anxiety of their people in their time. This, and not much else, is the essence of leadership.”
— John Kenneth Galbraith
“The task of the leader is to get his people from where they are to where they have not been.”
— Henry Kissinger (of all people)
Both are apt in the context of carbon policy and refugees, and also taxation, for example.
And as usual, the journo has to have the last word with ‘in the past the prince has been criticised over his support for homeopathy.
In other words “why believe this guy, he has no credibility”
Sheesh it makes me sick!!!!
jen
It is certainly depressing & frustrating. You sit back & think, c’mon get stuck into them. They are lying. I do believe that Rudd thought that the ALP were so far out in front & believed in the ability of voters to see through crap, a fatal mistake.
Whilst Rudd was busy getting on with business these halfwits were gaining traction. You virtually need a dedicated team of attack dogs to be fighting the Coalition’s crap whilst the ‘real’ ministers get on with the job.
“why Rudd is failing”- is this crikey ad still necessary
It’s not just that, Spectator – the headlines under “from the latest Daily Mail” (“Who’s really controlling the media message?” and “Rundle’s UK: are these the most passive, fatalistic people on the planet?”) date from before the UK election. Must have a word with them about that.
There is a grain of truth that the MSM back the Libs over the ALP but I think that is mainly due to two factors:
1, The Liberal party are more ‘populist’ than the ALP, it is easier for the MSM to sex up Liberal policy (ie: putting the boot into boat people) and put down Labor policy.
2, It creates a ‘contest’ ALP v LIB like a sporting competition.
Hello, Boerwar, how are the pine bark beetles doing? Well, I expect.
jenauthor
On the whole I would prefer it if the PoW did not say anything about AGW. His faddism, his falling for Laurens vd Post, etc, etc make him a suss messenger. Too easy to shoot down..
The issue is too important to rely on dud spruikers.
Rua went
Rob is always incoherent – thats his normal. Agree he should keep a low profile. He can even open a pie shop.
But he should keep the hell out of McLaren Street North Sydney
Better he just stays in mexico.
So Mr Oakes asks a tough question for Ms Gillard and the response is 400 posts attacking his credibility as a jurno. Hmmmm bout what I’d expect really.
HSO
The bark beetles are having a bit of a giggle about humans. Humans could, of course, stop bark beetles in their tracks. But they do not want to. Otherwise they would stop AGW. Anyway, back to the bark beetle giggle. Humans are using loudspeakers to put bark beetles off attacking trees. It sort of works like aversion therapy. Of course, in practice, the bark beetles simply head for some other trees. Yum yum.
Can you imagine millions of boomboxes blaring away in the north american wildernesses?
Jen went
Dead right. Far more interesting stuff to come. Like the libs policy and funding announcements – even if they are only put forward on the eve of the polls.
What policies did I hear you say ? Some old one with different headings like they always do.
Well said, Dee @ 3311. For me, it has just highlighted, if such were necessary, how the fourth estate, or at least, a component of them, consider themselves to be players.
ABC radio News now leading with the Coalition dominated Senate Committee baying for a Royal Commission into the Insulation Program, second is the yoof and violence findings with criticism that drugs and alcohol contribution not being included, even though Kate Ellis had already said this is being addressed by another process (COAG).
It makes you wonder what the constant ABC News number is going to do.
Glen, it wasnt a tough question at all, it was a silly one.
She had already said publicly that she wasnt going to speak about what went on in that meeting.
All Oaks had was some info that a deal was proposed at that meeting. Gillard considered, took advice, and rejected it. Thats it, all there is to it.
Oaks bringing up a matter which is at best only of historical relevance in a national forum was i think a waste on his part and doesnt reflect well on his professionalism.
The question obviously cut too close to a truth about Gillard people don’t want to acknowledge, well not until the turn on her and curse her in a few years time.
“So Mr Oakes asks a tough question for Ms Gillard ”
not so tough easy to respond to : what went on that night I will never reveal
Mick S@3320
I agree that the media love a conflict. If they don’t have one they’ll try to make one happen, and magnify small ones into bigger ones. That’s why governments must keep the initiative at all times and ‘do’ big things.
If they don’t ‘do’, preferring to ‘clear the decks’ as we have seen, and are now seeing again, governments gain little benefit from incumbency, and become just another party doing nothing, like the opposition. It creates a climate for mock battles and shallow politics played out in the media, in which the two appear equal.
But when governments are following an challenging agenda, and truly leading, they appear way above the minnows in opposition who have no power to do great things.
That is what Rudd forgot, and what Gillard is now forgetting. Her advisors’ answer to that is to call an early election on the ‘brand new female’ platform. Trouble is, if the policy vacuum on the big issues continues after the election she will tank in the polls very quickly in my view.
Thomas Paine@3329
Go away and join the other turncoats over at LP – you know the mob who only 6 weeks earlier were bagging Rudd for not being Left enough for them and wanted him gone – but have now turned the other cheek and want him elevated to sainthood.
“cut too close to a truth about Gillard people don’t want to acknowledge,”
Not really they faction leaders said there was going to be a spill despite any arrangement she had with Rudd and they were going to put her forward as the candidate whether she like it or not. If she did not put herself forward she would come across as weak and indecisive – she was forced into a position where she had to challenge.
Harry Snapper Organs
Annette Ellis (not kate) was not convincing in what she was saying about her committee’s report. Just because COAG is looking at something is no reason for a committee not to make a recommendation, and her reason why they didn’t recommend an increase in alcohol excise was nonsensical as I think she said excise was not a federal issue.
Mick S went
I consider there is more than said grain of truth.
If the current grain was reverse against the libs you would never hear the end of it.
This is exactly why howard & co continually attacked and stacked the abc board and management and why it is invested with murdochs mob on so many programs today.
Boerwar, that (the boomboxes) are a horrible, but all too real, image. At my main work site, there’s an intersection that’s just feral. Boom boxes are the least of it. At least with the boom box loaded vehicles, you have the chance to get out of the way.
Sorry. I misquoted Annette Ellis. She said the below. So she did not say that alcohol excise was not a Federal issue. She said it was not a ‘Federal thing that we could do easily’. Still, she is wimping it.
PM tonight ANNETTE ELLIS: The question of drugs and alcohol specifically are being addressed through COAG processes at the moment and one particular suggestion made to the committee that was maybe that we should for instance look at increasing the excise cost, making it more difficult. Well that’s not a Federal thing that we could do easily. We understand that COAG are going through a number of steps to look at that question specifically.
It is truly amusing the gymnastics people are putting themselves through to rationalise away the latest revelations that speak to Gillard’s honesty and nature.
I guess when she brings out a cop-out climate change policy, which her statements and those of her group are trying to prepare everyone, you will be going on how clever, and how she has no choice.
Rudd was extraordinary generous and thoughtful, putting the party first and concentrated on climate change policy as well fighting against racism and red-neck AS policy. But Gillard’s greed and lack of respect of democracy trumped it all.
It truly is shame on her the manner of her ascension, the jump to the right on all her policy so far. Tanner did say she was a conservative.
HSO
We could export them to Canada. Win Win.
It is entirely legitimate for Laurie Oakes to ferret out what happened on the night and then to ask the relevant questions.
He knew he was not going to get an answer to the questions from Gillard but that is her call – not his.
Oakes’ story simply demonstrates what a vindictive, malicious and manipulative person Kev can be. Oakes reported the story. What journalist would not report it? Kev has just twisted his way out of a job after the election.
HSO went
They do consider themselves players – thats a given.
That belief in itself proves they are no longer a *fourth estate*.
They are part of the third estate – the town – commerce – business and are by definition seriously conflicted. Not that it matters to them. Their role is to make a quid in a situation where the business model is failing.
But they are unaccountable to no one. They get away with it….
I is confused.
TP, you do know how representative parliamentary democracy along the Westminster lines works, don’t you?
Not from me. Tough journalists, a healthy democracy make.
Of course, you’ll see me criticise The usual hacks (Shanahan et al) and anyone who reports a poor written piece based on falsehoods.
However, Oakes is the godfather of Australian political reporting, whose years of journalism has seen him lighting the fire under all politicians of all parties and ideologies.
We get it worst right now because we are in power.
johncanb, you’re quite right, it’s Annette. However, what you can take from me from first hand experience of dealing with both State and Fed. levels of bureaucracy in Health over any number of governments of both persuasions, is that they’ve only recently started to talk to one another, and these are the people who advise government. Ceiling Cat Almighty, We’ve just had a major State wide upgrade of our incident reporting system. No one bothered to talk to mental health, so it’s totally acute health based.
We’ve got some total dolts in both State and Federal public services, who know bugger all about the areas in which they are providing advice. This is certainly part of the problem of governance in the country/
HSO
You might enjoy mine of 3234. But, then again, nobody else did, so you might not.
No it wasn’t. Oakes’ question has led the news bulletins and has created a new distraction this and future Gillard governments will have to deal with: the Rudd pact, and her role in trashing it. Gillard and her minders no doubt knew when she removed Rudd she’d be plagued by questions along these lines, and to her credit she dealt with Oakes well today. But the ‘I’m not saying nuthin’!’ routine will only hold the pack at bay for a limited time. She’s going to have to come up with something at some point.
TP
Thomas, you have got to be kidding. He certainly was not putting the party first with his loony mining tax, which simply put was a political stunt intended to shore up his leadership at the expense of his colleagues in WA, SA and QLD. And his climate change policy? I think it was never anything more than a wedge: a device to divide the Liberals that he never intended to implement. And his view on A-S: he bungled this from the word go.
TP went
Such comment applies in spades to your comments prior to gillard being voted in by the parliamentary labor party over rudd. For heavens sake he never even put his hand up for his own job in front of his peers!
TP – please get some professional help. You clearly need it old son. I am really sad to see you make such a goose of yourself.
We already know what happened. Oakes told us.
Gillard just wont admit it because she’d look like a ‘November Criminal’.
Really ? Oakes’ statements are solid gold. Those of other are soiled.
Utter tosh.
IF oakes wishes to establish his credibility provide proof. Piss or get off the pot.
Negatives cannot and do not have to be proved.
Glen
I think you are right about Oakes but wrong about Gillard.
There are more things said in these sorts of confidential meetings than will ever reach us. And rightly so ,or the world would come to a screaming halt.
@Glen/3351,
Oakes tells, you say “I believe”?
So B she could let us know?
The point is GIllard wont disclose. She has something to hide obviously.
Oakes isnt full of shit brisoz.
Yep, Boerwar, did indeed read and enjoy. Once I get the bit between my teeth and have the connectivity to be able to catch up, I certainly will do my best to catch up with the bludgers. We’re still waiting for a router that works, so have to keep swapping with Him Indoors for access to a computer that gives access to the bludgers.
Glen@3355
Just like Abbott has in his role over the knfing of Turnbull.
Spare me the faux crocodile tears Glen.
Anyhoo no one is talking AS
as you were
Abbott is just as guilty Frank I agree with you. But Gillard needs to come clean too and she is just as dirty as Tony.
ROFL
Glen
Those sorts of discussions only ‘work’ if everyone agrees that Mum’s the word hereafter. Gillard is sticking to it. Faulkner is sticking to it.
Oakes may have been able to put two and two together to some extent, but the detail is so rich someone must have leaked.
Gillard, IMHO, has no choice but to honour privacy. It ends up looking like she is dodgy.
The critical thing is: Is someone trying to destabilise Gillard? If so, what’s next?
Some news that might have got missed in all the posturing of the journalists at the NPC today (all I see is signficant scope for cost savings for the media company owners)
http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/china-gdp-growth-slows-to-103-20100715-10bx4.html
Oakes was there, was he Glen?
Of course it does. Hiding behind faux honour is a cheap excuse for not telling the truth and clearing this all up.
We essentially know the story and it actually paints her in a bad light.
Ms Gillard has some explaining to do IMHO.
Crack out the popcorn B
ABC TV Perth item on the registration woes of several new Parties.
Includes our very own Gerry Georgates
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2010/07/14/2953906.htm
There is of course another way of looking at the ‘Rudd Deal’. If he was on the nose (as we are lead to believe) would it not work in Gillard’s favour to reject his attempt to hang on to the leadership?
Glen — your surmise beyond reason.
There are any number of reasons why she mightn’t disclose. She might be protecting herself, or Rudd, or the party or all of the above.
She has said, and Faulkner has said, they will not reveal what happened. The meeting was personal.
How would you like it if the world was told of how you lost your job? If it was because you did the wrong thing?
We don’t know. We won’t ever know. And you’re all wasting perfectly good energy putting forward your ill informed views on it!
Chinese whispers never had it so good.
I bet Laurie Oakes is sitting on this loop giggling at how many silly people he reeled in!
No of course not.
Still it is clear that Oakes was obviously leaked to and big time William.
As such he has a significant amount of imformation about what went on. I grant you he cant possibly have the entire picture but enough to give us a good idea.
This too needs to be explained to me, unless the charge being levelled is that she was indecisive.
Laocoon
I saw something somewhere recently that the figures are dud because the banks are lying – they are fudging the books to hide the true extent of their lending.
Glen, are you aware that in life there are occasions where people are told things that are partial, misleading or even entirely false? Most children cotton on to that one quite early in the piece.
So, there is something different about Kevin Rudd being put to the metaphorical political knife, is there Thomas Paine?
Glen, if you think politics is a pristine pastime, it’s no wonder you’ve resigned from the Libs.
It’s a blood sport, without the actual blood, so far.
Wm
Intriguing. Are you questioning Oakes?
William
next you are going to blow the santa claus thing!
William
She supposedly made a deal then she reneged on that deal after talking to the factional heavies and then knifed Rudd.
Now it appears indecisive yes and perhaps even traitorous.
Glen still believes in the Easter Bunny, William. His name is Bilson
Of course and I agree with you.
Which explains why we need the bigger picture from Gillard.
Don’t be silly. Oakes was just saying what he heard. I assure you that he isn’t dopey enough to think there’s no possibility that what he was told was wrong, even if Glen is.
Purely speculative to say the least. Again piss or get off the pot.
This is fact, of the 112 labor members in the parliamentary party around 30 supported rudd. In politics that is game set and match.
Cry wail whatever it matters not.
Boerwar
Yes
I don’t know stories about those particular statistics, but generally speaking, Chinese statistics are notoriously rubbery (I was going to make a snide comment about market expectations of 10.5 versus 10.3%; in China you would never know)
Commentators tend to look at more “real”, verifiable statisics, which give a more narrow, but probably more accurate picture – things like electricity production; iron ore spot prices; inventory levels; shipments (hence the beloved Baltic Dry)
On the assumptions that banks are basically the same brain dead organisations the world over, if anything, I suspect the statistics being well and truely fudged are bad loans to real estate speculators…
jenauthor@3375
Well Howie was known to hang around with fictional Charactors
http://hereshumphrey.com/html/images/hbb_gall12.gif
(yep, and oldie but a goodie)
Glen, Would you know if Oakes had invented the idea of a Rudd Deal? You wouldn’t – nor would I. If it is a Oakes invention then how might Gillard have dealt with it at the National Press Club? Maybe to play a straight bat and to neither confirm nor deny the accusation. Seems like a reasonable strategy under the circumstances. Bottom line is we don’t know if Oakes knows something or thinks he knows something or whether he made it up to inflate his own importance. Take what he and all journalists say with a handful of salt.
Of course he could have invented it all up, I doubt it though.
But how many times has Laurie done that Tom?
dave@3378
I didn’t know there was a caucus vote. Was there a caucus vote?
I thought the faction leaders made the decision, and there wasn’t a caucus vote because Rudd was told which faction leaders had pledged their troops for Gillard, and Albo was the only one who hadn’t, so he pulled out.
Wm
Very interesting. Who would want to sell Oakes a pup?
Like I said take what any journalist says with a pinch of salt.
I don’t think a “deal” that lasts five minutes is worthy of the name, even allowing that that’s what it was – the allegation goes no further than Gillard agreeing that Rudd’s offer was “sensible and reasonable”. If Rudd didn’t have time to perform any material actions influenced by a misapprehension as to Gillard’s intentions, the only charge that could be fairly said to stick against her is indecisiveness.
It’s not interesting at all, Boerwar. A person with an interest in the matter might want to sell Oakes a pup.
Boerwar@3384
Someone with an axe to grind – ask Malcolm Turbull, Godwin Grech and the Ltd News all about that pup known as Utegate
sensible comment
Wm
I see we have different interests.
BTW
I wonder who will be first to note it took only 60+ years for a woman to go from being a fed MP to being PM
Enid was prescient
cf her maiden speech
Tom Hawkins@3381
That’s a weird take. If Oakes has made it up to inflate his own importance, wouldn’t he be concerned about Gillard pricking his balloon as soon as he brought it up?
And if Gillard wasn’t worried about corroboration of his assertions, why wouldn’t she grandly dismiss the fabricated narrative out of hand and humiliate Oakes?
Wouldn’t that be the best way to stop the issue distracting from the party’s pre-election messages? The fact that she didn’t deny it speaks volumes. She could have denied it without breaching any confidentiality at all:
“Laurie, I am not going to give you the details of private conversations, but I can assure you that the sequence of events you have been told is a litany of lies. You should be ashamed of yourself Laurie, coming here to the high temple of journalism and repeating unsubstantiated scuttlebutt like that. You of all people should know better than anyone to check your facts. Next question?”
But no, she did nothing of the sort, and guaranteed the thing a big run by clamming up.
Night all. *goes off to commence re-reading ‘Master and Commander’*
Well I watched SBS world news before. Wish I didn’t. First 10 minutes nothing but bad news for Labor.
Even when they covered her speech, they covered the points when she slightly dithered.
I expect the commercial networks’ bulletins were no better…
depends on your perspective.
Clamming up might be the honourable thing.
Or a good excuse.
Using the logic of others here — why would she deliberately answer in such a way as to guarantee the story gets a run?
Two things:
Julia is declaring that she will not be manipulated by the press and Julia is declaring she will not be manipulated by the press.
Simple really.
Flat, direct, strong denial is the best way to kill off interest in fabrications. When it isn’t corroborated, the interest level instantly becomes nil.
How does she lose honour with such an answer, for Rational Thought’s sake?
By not denying it, she allows herself to be … manipulated by the press.
If she admits to Oakes’ allegations, everyone bags her for not being confidential and she looks dodgy.
If she denies Oakes’ allegations and says they’re confidential, she looks dodgy.
Flat denial might be partially or fully a lie. I don’t think she wants to be tarred with the same brush as Abbott.
If she made a commitment not to divulge — then the response was appropriate.
And she said, she would not play his game. I do not see her response as manipulation at all.
I take it from her recent speeches and statements that Julia was brought up with a strong sense of honour.
Any response other than what she gave would have impugned that honour.
All possibilities have been canvassed on this blog and LP as to who the leaker was, and I have carefully considered all the arguments. I have to say at the end of the day, with heavy heart, it most likely was Kevin. It is not in his interest (or of those close to him) to leak, but I suspect he is so devastated that it is overwhelming his good judgment. I feel sorry for him, and for his own sake and the sake of the party, I hope he recovers his good judgment quickly.
Because even shooting down an allegation is a violation of the confidentially of the meeting. This is not just an issue of principle either. If she entertains that question, she will open the floodgates to other journalists asking questions about the meeting, demanding an answer, because “she answed Laurie”
Absolute confidentiality is absolute. It’s the same reasons why lawyers (and some other professionals) don’t divulge information about their clients, no matter how trivial. (Yes, I know there are some exceptions for extreme circumstances, but they’re not an apt parallel.)
Umm she’s a politician Jen.
You dont get to be PM without doing your fair share of nasty dishonourable things.
It doesnt have to be Kevin. John it could be one of the 30MPs who supported Kevin or one of his staffers.
Ah but you’re basing that judgment on hearsay!
All the discussions you have read lack one important element. Knowledge.
It is ALL supposition.
Not if they are fabricated she doesn’t look dodgy.
She looks strong, direct, truthful, and taking no bullshit from no heavyweight journo.
But I think there must be a lot of truth in Oakes’ assertions, by simple logical deduction.
“the allegation goes no further than Gillard agreeing that Rudd’s offer was “sensible and reasonable””
And there is the nub of it. All this piffle about Gillard reneging on a deal is just that, piffle. Oaks was reporting on a DISCUSSION during which options were laid out, considered and in this particular case, rejected.
However, there are many people who are trying to make this out to be something that its not because they just dont like Gillard. Thats politcs, but its still bulls%^t.
Perhaps Glen. But can you be certain? Or are you just assuming?
And no, I am not saying she is squeaky clean, or anything like that. What I am saying is that I NEED PROOF before I make sweeping statements as to the actions of another (especially someone I do not know personally ad who I only see through the skewed lenses of a press that has its own agenda).
The whole situation is about people who place a high value on their credibility.
Oaks: Would not suggest in a question something that wasn’t supported from some reliable source. To do otherwise would call into question his credibility.
Gillard: If Gillard did back out on a deal as soon as it was made, then her credibility is called into question. So she can’t confirm
Also
Gillard: can’t deny, because it is true so if she did she would be caught out and her credibility would be even more compromised.
So it ends up being a story for Oaks, everyone knows its true but the shield of “I’m looking forward not backward” is Gillard’s equivalent of deniability.
ifonly
nicely put
and the boats are off the screen as an issue
bonus
Rudd sold Oaks a pup?
It was one of Rudd’s staffers, let it go!
Glen, Julia was elevated to the position in the best interests of the Party given all circimstances. Don’t paint her with the same brush as many others without any justification.
We don’t know who the leaker is, but I cannot really see it is in the interests of Kevin’s supporters (or Kevin) to do it. The person of that group most likely to go against his/her interest is Kevin, because he is devastated.
It is a sad indictment of our democracy when people assume everyone in high office is an underhanded wheeler-dealer
Centre
I was truly surprised JG didnt call it today
Honour? Gillard is a battle-scarred factional politician. Don’t make me belly-laugh.
And don’t forget, if the Oakes narrative is correct, then there is no confidentiality any more. The truth is out there, nationally, in millions of homes. And corroboration is only a breath away.
And TSOP:
There is absolutely no comparison whatsoever between the ethics and obligations as between lawyer and client, and the obligations of politicians to each other in private meetings about there respective interests. Agreements about ‘keeping it quiet’ in the latter are made to be breached. They are necessarily breached. Circumstances change, revenge is sought, alliances dissolve and reform. Not so between lawyer and client. False analogy.
Yep remember how Gillard said people were sick of the Rudd government not negotiating and not trying to persue results and instead following dudd policies?
East Timor has said in big bold letters NO to Gillards prison camps, yet we got Stephen Smith up in Indonesia discussing the idea with the INDONESIAN president. Why the hell would you talk to the Indonesians about a detention centre thats never going to happen?
Because Ladies and Gentlemen, when you balls up as badly as this you gotta pull a “Ruddy” and pretend the policies still on, despite it being obvious to blind freddy it’s over like a dogs dinner. Put on a good show for the election like Rudd did with the GBNT on miners and pretend no one notices that it’s a complete stuff up and that the parties involved in what you are proposing have given you the big middle finger.
This Gillard chick is doing a Rudd lite impersonation.
Maybe the leaker was Chris Trevor, MP for Flynn, and avowed Rudd supporter?
Centre politics is a dirty game no matter how you slice it.
I’m not referring to anything specific Re- Ms Gillard but that to get anyway you’ve got to be prepared to get your hands dirty.
Very soon Gus, this weekend I reckon, if not tomorrow even?
jenauthor@3414
It is, unfortunately. But that’s modern politics, especially in our relic of an electoral system.
This really is a non story. People will already have factored into their thinking that JG took the leadership from Rudd in a coup, one that they either supported, were against or couldn’t careless about. The details will just confirm their thinking on the matter, one way or the other. It won’t change minds.
It’ll be October 23rd now.
What motive would Chris Trevor have for leaking it?
Based on how the PM answered the question I think there might be some truth in it. if Oakes had made it up then the PM would have not had any problems dismissing it instead she words that indicated that yes Rudd had made an offer
Glen
Glen is trying to reclaim the resident VI of PB either from either the resurrected Toothy or the resurrection TP
evan14@3417
Especially as it came exactly 24 hours after his “Media Release”.
JV no matter how you look at it — you have a jaundiced view.
Gary is correct, this will not change anyone’s mind.
The reality is Rudd and Gillard had a long meeting and I suspect it was not all about the wall colour.
The wash up is that
1.gillard ownd the npc,her riposte to oakes was gold
2 da boats are not the radar
3 JG confirms she is a leader
4. the 21st is slipping away?
I do try my best Finns
If the account given by Oakes is correct, all it shows was Rudd grasping at straws; trying to hang on somehow; hoping he might be able to stave off his challenger. Of course Gillard could not accept Rudd’s proposition: to do so would have left him with all the initiative that goes with the office of PM. Rudd has shown once again that he does not accept the result the democratic process and is trying to undermine his opponent. It is a very unattractive spectacle. If he does not desist, he should be dis-endorsed by the Federal Executive.
ANyone got a link to the speech at the npc — I only saw snippets and I though SKY would replay it — but now the cricket is on I am loathe to switch channels!
Amazing that gossip keeps the Canberra press club going and also the blogoshere. Why anyone would get excited about a near non story is a wonder. If its true it hardly reflects much on anyone involved.
Finns
where is the lurve?
Is that your prediction for the election date? Or have I some how traveled forward in time a couple of months and you’re just announcing today’s date?
If it is the former, I sincerely doubt it. It’s clear Gillard needs her own mandate by the people to be fully accepted and the expectation is for the election to be in August/early September at latest. Leaving it to late October will look no better than the prospect of Rudd leaving it until 2011.
Sounds like every day board room business deals to me, it’s how these things are done Glen, pretending like they should be all sweetness and light is either a sign that you’re living in a bubble or else you are faking it for dramatic intent.
Gus, Plenty of Lurve for Glen
Of course John.
Politics is no picnic after all.
The same timetable will be in place as it was for Rudd or there abouts. Hence I believe in October.
So, Rudd and Gillard had a long meeting, then a little time later that night Rudd announces that he will open the leadership to the Party the next morning! So how long did it take for Julia to renege on the deal?
It’s a beat up!
Fair dinkum some of you blokes have been reading too many posts by Greens supporters
I live to give.
jenauthor@3429
After decades of seeing the same political behaviours repeated. But not inaccurate on this issue, I think.
With the GovernorGeneral departing on Saturday, returning Wednesday, I wonder if tomorrow is the day?
Like the ‘Julia will not be manipulated by the press’ — I don’t think she’ll dance to anyone else’s tune re: the election date.
She wants her ducks in the row in the way that she wants. Then she’ll call it. The speculation is keeping the press corps busy trying to out think each other.
Probably very amusing from where she sits. I certainly find all their justifications/predictions and prognostications quite hilarious.
I am really surprise that this little “problem” with Rudd’s proposal has not been pointed out.
What is the point passing the “leadership” to Gillard at the last minute. It would then be too late and too terminal.
The King certainly knew a thing or too about politics. It’s Now or Never:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rd3wLDloK9I
Centre@3441
‘
Most of those posts WERE by Greens Supporters
Lao
I reckon glen may be on to something
Frank, that figures
So what time does the GG leave on Sat and when does she return?
Gus
Well I dont know, but October still has issues of (1) football games (2) Commonwealth games (3) Vic election rumblings (4) Parliament would sit again (5) some school holidays
I would think 4 Sept is latest (assuming 11 Sept is a no-goer still)
Finns
I reckon today was the 21st last chance
the idea of letting the tax rebates wash thru and ride the “feel good” factor may be part of the calcs
Everything has fit the Rudd timeline.
Policies/Negotiations ect
If she said Rudd was thinking of October. Who knows but so far she’s basically kept things business as usual so if they were planning for October why upset the apple cart?
It could be earlier (September) but since Abbott will be exposed for a fraud the longer into the election cycle we go (without him releasing any policies) Gillard will want to do Tone slowly.
I could be wrong but hey just my two cents.
One thing I’d be banking on is a long campaign by Julia so both leaders can get maximum oxygen.
The more they see of Abbott, the more everybody can realise the dope and lunatic that he is!
If the election is 23rd October, the Canberra Press Gallery is going to be completely insufferable
Glen
the october thing was interesting for sure
All the more reason
lol
Could be the 9th or 16th of October either Lao.
the cycle is the key
i reckon ahem newspoll played into the 21st smokescreen
Could be 9th or 16th, but close to Commonwealth Games (distraction of the populace; cost of TV advertising)
Lao
they are now
their droning will end up being white noise
What ever happened to Glenn Milne?
He was fired right?
Is he still writing articles from Costello leaks?
I’d like to know what this meant as to Rudd’s intentions on carbon pre-election:
Did this mean Rudd was intending to go further than Gillard and the ‘nobodies’ wanted to go on carbon? Could that be part of the reason for the knifing?
The 25th of December is a Saturday this year! Last possible day for an election this year! If only the Grinch was PM!
Laocoon@3460
But Julia did rule out AFL Grand Final Day on Today Tonight in Perth
They are indeed already Gus. Today’s spectacle at the NPC was a shocker
Glen
LOL
The election will be held between Aug 21 and Sept 11.
What have you blokes been doing during the day besides making comments on PB. When the hell did an Oct election become a factor?
JV, I’m reliably informed that Rudd was also on the brink of closing Pine Gap and severing the American alliance.
centre
worked 4 hours am
washed cleaned paid some bilss
watched npc
dentist
cooked dinner
washed up
watched ekflfyalalkakallkakklaklaklak
laid off a school of grey nurses or three on october
LOL alot
Centre@3468
Forget Sept 11 – naysayers will say it will be disrectful for the Aussies who died in the Twin towers. etc.
Can you imagine if the election were held off until October? Imagine the talking points. “Gillard hanging on to power” or “putting off the election for as long as possible” and “how long do we have to have this ‘unelected’ PM for?.” The opposition talking points will write themselves.
I know we delight in the idea of the government sticking it to the “commentariat” by doing the unexpected, however sometimes the alternative is worse. The combined media/opposition meme in response to holding off the election until October will be relentless, and outside of this blog will stick in the mind of every day Australians.
Right now the opposition talking point is “Shame on her. She is going to call the election early!” I’d prefer that over it returning to the “the PM needs to call the election NOW!” I don’t think I need to explain why…
TSOP
remember JG will have parliament back
Frank I think it will be either:
1. Aug 28
2. Sep 4
3. Aug 21
Gus, the Tour de France finishes on July 25 so the election flows from this date or have I misunderstood?
Scarps
Boom Boom
3469
For neutrality/pacifism or out of obedience and adherence to the PRC?
Centre@3474
Forget Sept 4 – Day before Fathers Day people possible out of town to visit dad etc.
But outside the cherry picked 10 second soundbites, who (beside the political tragics) actually cares about parliament.
The Tony Abbott we see in parliament, and the one viewers of the 6 o’clock news see in the quick segment are completely different.
How many times have I seen Tony Abbott sounding like a fool in parliament but managing to bark out some fiery comment about the government and only seeing the fiery comment in the evening news courage – making him look like he is putting the government’s feet to the fire!
October 9th/16th
Still you wanna know what I think?
It should be the first Saturday of November every 3 years.
It will be August 28th or August 21st. It’s pretty obvious.
William Bowe@3469
Indeed. It’s fun though to imagine the scenario of Kevin renouncing the factional nobodies after all, and lurching to the left (for him) in a wild last hurrah.
Of course, the truth is there would have been about as much chance of those two things you mention happening as getting anything substantial from Rudd on policy.
The ‘Oakes Diaries’ really confirm that Gillard is taking exactly the route Rudd was going to take, except the probable election date, and alll they were looking for in her was a bounce in the polls for the reason that she was new and a ranga.
OK Frank:
1) Aug 28
2) Aug 21
TSOP
three letters
E
T
S
GSM
Whoever wins the election may end up facing a tough time..
http://www.economist.com/blogs/newsbook/2010/07/shipping_rates_slump&fsrc=nwl
Yeah frank
come clean
Centre@3483
Now ya talking – though the ABC will be pissed off cos their Digital OB Vans will be busy covering the Footy, as they do the coverage for Fox Sports. And forget any updates from Ch 10 as well.
Julia reneged on “a deel” within 10 minutes ?
that is th LIE that Laurie Oakes sourse passed onto to Oakes
that is th smear made against Julia , based on an allegedly 10 long minutes deel , that on th 11th minutes she reneged on !
well first , how does 10 minutes make a deel anyway
MORE important however is if Rudd offered to stand down what Oakes source is saying is Julia agreed on th spot and then thereafter told her advisors !
instead of what i beleive occurred (if Rudd offered to stand down) being : julia said she’d think about it and consult gher advisors , and it took 10 minutes for her/advisors to wise up he neither had th numbers and he was “buying time”
why people accept Oake’s sourse most unplausible alternative is just conspiracy illogics
i mean if you’re offered th PMship, do you immediately say yes , or do you sensible say you’ll think about it AFTER consultingadvisors …this is a reneging smear against Julia , not by kevin but by an unhappy suporter who leaked a biased story of events , and some hear fell for it like Santa clau’s
We should have fixed terms.
1st Sat of November every 3 years.
Then no more election date speculation
Ten Late News:
That’s six
While it would be nice to checkmate the oppo on the ETS, it may be futile if the general mood against the government is that it’s holding on for dear life.
Unfortunately it is often seen amongst Labor governments, when they are in terminal decline, a desperate attempt at pushing through radical reforms and new progressive ideas, as a last ditch effort to get the excitement back in the base. Not saying this would be the case but it could be perceived as such.
Glen – agree, but 4 years. A 3 year election cycle isn’t enough, in my opinion.
3489
That would clash with Victorian elections every so often (last Saturday in November for those who don`t know). The Atheist in my says the election should be the 25th of December.
Hmm China is an interesting place..
TSOP
smarty pants
BTW
the gsm refers to game set match
As regards the ETS it would sideline the drifting green vote
and polarise the fibs
Agreed. Works for well for the respective states, would work well federally.
Maybe have the term extended to 4 years, to give the governments a little more of a chance to govern before having to go into re-election mode.
True glory but neither side will ever agree on that because the one in Opposition will have an extra year there.
Unless you say from after the 2013 election the next will be November 4th 2017?
But I think it is fair and yes 4 years is better (but I like voting).
It would have the highest number of informal votes ever, from all the people too drunk to mark their ballots correctly.
Who cares?
The Yanks vote for Governors + state Parliaments on the Presidential election days?
Why cant we do the same thing (even though they’re on different days)?
Nobody really cares about State politics anyway.
Glen 3497
Precisely. A proposed constitutional amendment would take effect in the “following term” that way it won’t be seen as giving the current government an extra year. (ie. The opposition has a chance to be elected to the first 4 year term)
I’d also ideally like to have Optional Preferential Voting in place as well for the Lower House.
TP
funnily the load demand is based on modelling that charts the unoccupied quotient as part of determining future usage
In oz as a percentage we run at 2-3.5%
various factors influence that number including new starts and rental turnovers
The SMH is factoring in the Oakes Diaries to election speculation. Anyone want to change their prediction? No?:
Too close to the melbourne cup Glen
Link
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/character-questions-may-delay-election-20100715-10cux.html
joint venture
they read PB
If anybody wants to know TP’s real problem, you can scroll back to post 1717 on this thread
So???
As long as it doesnt fall on the same day no biggy?
liam Bowe
Posted Thursday, July 15, 2010 at 11:31 pm | Permalink
“JV, I’m reliably informed that Rudd was also on the brink of closing Pine Gap and severing the American alliance.”
and therefore th CIA (as with Gough Whitlam) , removed Kevin Rudd
Glen
Derby Day is the Saturday before the Cup and Emirates Stakes Day is the Saturday after. Give the punters a break.
[Link http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/character-questions-may-delay-election-20100715-10cux.html
The wire service hack responsible for that report has exceeded their brief, one feels.
It’s funny, most of this innuendo and “damaging moments” are just pre-election anxiety. The moment that the election is called, the narrative will change and be focused back on the prospective candidates and their policies.
Whoever said “this will be forgotten” about whatever confected issue it was, is probably right. half this crap will cease to matter after the visit to Yarralumla…
3499
There is merit in separating elections out so they will be considered separately in detail by more of the voters. We also have compulsory voting which means that we don`t have the argument that the turnout in the minor races would be dismal nor do we have the too many elections to hold individually argument. American voting systems, laws, etc, are usually to be steered clear of (as are many of the UK`s).
I promise I did not write that one Mr Bowe
Horse racing is given way too much prominence in this country…
Doesn’t seem to worry the Americans
.
http://www.csmonitor.com/Books/chapter-and-verse/2010/0426/George-W.-Bush-memoir-set-for-release-on-Nov.-9
Giggity
To Speak of Pebbles@3515
First, shoot all the horses?
3517
Except when the 1st Tuesday in November in is the 1st day of November when they hold their elections on the 8th (they have a Tuesday after the first Monday) as will hapen next year.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_elections,_2011
That’s too cruel. Shoot the jockeys.
Good to read that Tony Burke will distance himself from talks with Green groups in the article that JV linked
3519
Anyone who can`t see the second “p” in “happen” in 3519 needs their eyes checked.
jaundiced view@3518
And serve em up
Now THis is the big story in Perth atm.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/video/-/watch/20887622
William Bowe@3511
Well, he’s got an opinion and he isn’t afraid to express it. Must have been working on a Murdoch paper.
TTfab
you constantly save me trips to the optometrist
Anyone who didn’t get to see Gillard’s NPC speech — here’s a transcript
http://tonyserve.wordpress.com/2010/07/15/full-transcript-of-prime-ministerjulia-gillards-address-to-the-national-press-club-canberra/
Very positive, I thought.
Gusface@3525
Maybe cos he IS an optometrist
j/v last week was spinnin his crocodile tears that Kevin Rudd was wiytthout warning executed
now this Laurie Oakes story says Kevin Rudd was actualy willing to STAND DOWN , which demolishs last weeks j/v spin , so now j/v switchs to Julia reneging on a deel that she never agree to !
j/v is lik zig and zag , switching spin to whatever is anti Labor
Good Labor news is depite lie of Julia reneging on deel that never was agreed to , it IS a message to Labor hartland especialy Queensland that Kevin Rudd HIMSELF acepted he may need to stand down , so it takes th edge off some Labor voters thoughts that he thought he could win and desderved sympathy for his beleif
@ Pebbles
It is a) my livelihood (most of it anyhow) and b) the 3rd biggest employer in the country or some such thing … it is a massive industry that feeds a LOT of people.
Scarpat@3520
Don’t tempt me with some of those who have caused me financial pain because of their hopeless ineptitude over the years.
And yet the only footage of Gillard was her saying ‘Bob Keating’ and the Oakes question
It was a great speech. Her oratory skills are wonderful. I certainly hope she gets re-elected (besides for the obvious reasons.) We have a statesman in the making there!
jen
from the ones that fail barrier trials?
Very droll Gusface
I am happy to hear that. I still stand by my stance that the country should work around it (not to mention the fact that some states have public holidays for horse races) is a little bit too much.
Hah!
The knackery has it’s place (unfortunately)
Glen
I can but try
Oh dear, poor old Get Up
http://www.smh.com.au/national/hitch-in-plan-to-get-voters-on-a-roll-a-sign-of-the-times-20100715-10cs1.html
Jen
[the knackery has it’s place[
the glue of the industry?
Chum Chumpy so chumpy you can carve it
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oUj_gESVMVU
Gus — calm down — it wasn’t THAT funny!
You too Glen.
It’s a pity. Electoral enrolment is important. I am glad it was shot down, presumably before anyone participated. It would’ve been a shame if somebody participated, only to find out on polling day that their enrolment did not count.
Ahh Bolt:
Glen and Gus
thanks for the laugh!
Just like PB where hackery has its place.
sorry jen
No malice intended
TSOP
Statesman?
I think Gillard has a few basics to master before that sobriquet could be envisioned down the track. The biggest obstacle is this at present (per Mikhail Gorbachev):
“What is the difference between a statesman and a politician?… A statesman does what he believes is best for his country, a politician does what best gets him re-elected”
A bit of whimsy for the horse lovers:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hklViS2yqhY
We try
Frank, Bolt uses the “broken clock system” wherein, he says the same drivel everyday and, when it eventually comes true, he can claim you heard it from him first.
In this case, it is a little wishful thinking too (also the whole “lie repeated enough…” philosophy)
Ge5t Up trying to raise a 100,000 to run a TV ANTI Julia campiagn saying Julia is no good for Climate Change
…ie to vote FOR Tony Abbott , a CC deniest
Get up ar a hypocrital disgrace , and now is right wing Group pretendin to be a ‘left’ Lobby Group , or Get Up is imcompetant , or both
Good thing that Getup’s influence on our elections is about 0.001% +/-0.001
I get their emails in my inbox frequently, often they find their way into the junkbox. It’s basically white noise.
Ahh the Terror:
Pebbles
they alegedly got 250,000 “members”
most of whom conned they mainstreem ‘left’
usually they out with fairys with radical socialist left Greens , now they done a leep frog suporting Abbot by rediculing Julia on CC , with a false neg anti Julia propose TV ad , just a fraudulent polisy Lobby group
Frank
Is that all they’ve got
Sad really
Tomorrow’s OO:
I was right all along:
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/election/a-secret-shell-take-to-her-grave-gillards-stunning-vow-over-her-showdown-with-rudd/story-fn5zm695-1225892372482
None taken Gus!
Delroy’s Issue of The Day – Julia’s Press Club Adress, and possible “Cutbacks”
Frank Calabrese
Posted Friday, July 16, 2010 at 12:44 am | Permalink
“I was right all along”
“former senior political and media adviser Lachlan Harris told The Daily Telegraph in a text message: “It is true”. ”
you were , and it makes my “take’ that key component , th LIE , an aleged 10 minute deel not only unplausible that Julia would agree to it on th spot , but also to not even consult her own advisors first as well BEFORE giving a response to that “offer to stand down”
in any event , what it doesis remove th ‘story’ Kevin was ambushed without prior warning and that he thought he def would win an electon
and Oakes “source” says it all about that ‘lie’
Well, the corroboration of the Oakes Diaries I envisaged coming earlier tonight has not taken long.
The ‘confidentiality’ is no more – totally breached. Confirmation from Gillard would not now betray anyone except herself, especially as corroboration is from Rudd’s own former senior advisor.
So Gillard will ‘take to her grave’ a secret that everyone else knows. (I hope she doesn’t leave something else out of her casket pack for want of room.)
I am certain her desire to justify keeping quiet is more to do with her own image than any loyalty to Rudd. What would Rudd care if he’s not the leaker?
This story has further to run. The AAP hack may be right after all about a delay to election plans.
jaundiced view@3562
Wrong,
All it proves was that Lachlan was Laurie’s mole.
nothing more, nothing less.
It also removes the justification of Gillard keeping quiet for Rudd’s sake on high principle or ‘honour’. But she may continue to try to justify saying nothing – if so it would be only for her own protection, and I doubt it would be successful.
Tony Abbott rolled by factional heavyweights. I’ll be curious to see how much the MSM makes of this, “shadowy faceless factional warlords”, “Midnight knock at the door” etc. Some Liberal Party hack was still going on about it on Sky tonight and a few times made special mention of “dark smoke filled rooms”.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-depth/powerbrokers-steamrolled-abbott-over-michael-johnson/story-fn5rizbk-1225892380656
Ron could you please please please consider using spellcheck? I find that the lack of attention to this seriously distracts from the content of your posts
j/v
you’ve been shown to be naive thru this whole Oakes story , including foolish accepting an obvious Lachlan Harris a 100% Kevin suporter staff member’s “lie” of a NON deel that he passed on to Oakes that defyes all unplausible & politcal thoughts
and as final coup da ta , you self rightous on your high jump of santimoniousnes planks want Julia , John Fawkner and Kevin to betray a confidental conversation th 3 had ….well in Labor there is “honor and respect , “…someting you Greens know nothing about
As a purist (spelling and grammar nazi) I have to agree MM. It is one thing to spell badly because you’re typing quickly quite anther to destroy the language completely (and not just english, poor old french has copped it too!)
No offense Ron — but he’s right, it is highly distracting.
If this Lachlan Harris is supposed to be a loyal to Rudd he’s got a pretty strange way of showing it??
This would seem to me to make it much more likely that any damage that Gillard (and so the ALP’s election prospects) take from this beat up will be much more likely to fall on Rudd. This has to create/feed speculation that Harris has leaked and confirmed the leak with Rudds blessing. And for what? If he or his staffers wanted some kind of revenge on Gillard then you would think that they would wait until post election at least when any consequensces for the ALP would be less?
Very bad look.
Will put a bit of a crimp in Rudds reputation even if he comes out and says against this Harris.
*uplugging for last session of cricket* ‘night all!
This betrayal story has much further to run.
The next issue to come to the fore is the 18 months of Labor insiders leaking against Rudd in order to bring down his popularity. The Gillard betrayal was only the climax of a very long insider campaign, will she deny any knowledge of that.
This will be the result of the silly and malicious idea within Labor to trash Rudd as much as possible. There are 30 or so MPs that will take umbrage at that and many more staffers.
More to come on the antics of hateful factional hacks at work. Enjoy the entertainment.
Thomas Paine@3571
No, it was your beloved Kev, via his loyal foot soldier Lachlan Harris who orchestrated this and it will blow up in his face spectaularly.
Enjoy the ride my friend
LoL
Labor has been out there trying to trash Rudd’s reputation from day one.
But it will have zero effect on Rudd’s reputation except to highlight how he was a victim of an ambush and double dealing. It will hurt Gillard and Labor. Gillard couldn’t wait, she had to have power now, even from a PM who was going to win the election.
She is a very silly girl.
The only thing that will keep Gillard afloat and looking Ok is an Abbott Opposition.
imacca , its possible Lachlan Harris is over loyal & angry , amaturish , and simple blabbered , and “on th spot” response to make his boss look good , it happens
But I’m not wearing trashing Kevin07′s wonderful PM acheivements , and neither will Labor , and it has not done so
Thomas Paine@3573
Nope, you’re wRONg.
Julia put Oakes in his box – it is your Hero Kev who’s behind this as he is pissed off that Julia is more popular than him and his precious ego doesn’t like it one bit.
And his actions today has ensured he will NEVER be offered a Ministry.
Ron@3575
Funny how all those achievements are proudly listed here:
http://alp.org.au/federal-government/our-key-achievements/
Frank, what wouldn’t I give to be able to go back in time a few months to inform you that by the middle of the winter you’d be making sneering references to “your hero Kev”.
This site is getting very silly.
William Bowe@3578
Times change – I have moved on – TP hasn’t
Frank Calabrese@3580
and I am mature enough to realise that my hero Kev has outlived his purpose and we need to move forward.
William Bowe@3578
You might want to add a few more “ALP Hacks” to your list
A few quick thoughts:
- There’s no way Oakes is making this up. He’s bound to have a credible source – too much risk for him otherwise. He’d look like a complete fool, if everyone involved said “no that’s rubbish”. You’d have to think the source is either Rudd, or someone associated with him.
- But credible sources sometimes lie – in fact, the essence of being a good liar is being credible. Also, the source (if they weren’t actually in the room) could be mistaken. So we can’t be certain the story is accurate, or that Gillard’s comments, even if accurately quoted, are being put in context.
- We already knew that Gillard had done the dirty on Rudd. (Rightly or wrongly, for good motives or ill, blah, blah, blah). That is, pretty much, what a leadership challenge consists of. So I’m not sure how much this all adds to the sum of human knowledge.
- But it’s interesting, and newsworthy for a day, or maybe a few. So no reason why Oakes shouldn’t raise it.
- Gillard did the right thing by not commenting. That was smart. There is no way that commenting on the spot could have made it better for her. And, depending on what she said, it could have made it a lot worse. Presumably confidential discussions occur all the time in the PM’s office (in fact, they even occur in my office!). No reason why everyone has a right to know everything.
- The effect? A bit of short-term distraction. (For example, hardly anyone is ever going to take note of what Gillard said in her speech today). But in terms of the election, this is probably nothing.
- I still think Labor will win this election pretty comfortably.
- And I still remain utterly unconvinced that they’ve achieved anything by dumping Rudd, other than (as Hartcher put it) wasting a PM. Rudd Labor was going to win, anyway.
Hmm, from the OO Politics Section:
For the integrity of the historical record, I wish it be known that the reference to John Fawkner is a mistaken reference to Senator John Faulkner
See the Wikipedia entry for him.
#3585
Hopefully this will prevent any possible confusion in the future with another historical political figure Guy Fawkes .
The Courier-Mail has audio of a voicemail message left by Tony Abbott on Michael Johnson’s phone, in which he tells him of his efforts to ensure he retains preselection in Ryan. Abbott tells Johnson he told LNP president Bruce McIver he would “be very, very, very disappointed if he wasn’t to get right off your case”.
#3579, TPS, i agree. Too many are now auditioning to be the resident VI.
MM@3566:
Lie back and think of England.
I look forward to Ron’s posts, and deciphering them is half the fun.
It is, isn’t it?
I was a pretty big fan of Rudd. But I can’t see any other result of this ‘leak’ than the reinforcement of the impression that he’s yesterday’s man. Politics moves quickly, and each day the question of what happened to him and what he thinks of it gets less and less relevant.
In the end, nobody cares how the power is taken – and often they don’t care why either. We’re not being presented with the option of bringing Rudd back, only Gillard vs Abbott.
Oakes got some information, he asked the question, and Gillard played a straight bat to it. As you would. Everything I’ve seen and read since Rudd was deposed indicates that she wasn’t all that willing to go through with it, but pragmatic enough to see the way things were going. Having no choice in the matter, she did the practical thing.
It was still pretty ugly. But at least part of the reason it happened was because there was an alternative talented enough to look like an attractive option. I think she’s shown since then that that assessment was correct. So we move on.
BTW did the punters take any notice of Howie reneging the “leadership deal” with Cossie. a big fat NOOOOOO. It’s a storm in the tea cup trying to tear down Jules.
This site is getting very silly. @3579
But this site is very serious: Abbott’s hospital cuts.
For a start, I’m willing to accept that Oakes’ story is in substance true – and it fits in with my theory that Julia was a reluctant draftee to the leadership.
But I don’t think anyone ‘in the room’ was the leaker.
If someone ‘in the room’ leaked, Oakes would not need to seek confirmation for his story. He would simply publish it, as he did with the Kernot/Evans affair.
He asked a question because he needed someone who WAS ‘in the room’ to give him a response.
The leaker was most likely an up and coming factional player who didn’t actually have much to do with the pusch but wants the media to believe that he did.
It’s about power. Some u & c factional players need people to believe they have more influence then they do. They generally sit in safe seats and don’t have to worry about whether their actions are damaging to the party as a whole. Their only interest is (alas!) their own advancement.
You only have to look at NSW (hint hint) to see what damage these people are willing to inflict on the party and the people in order to shore up their own positions.
So not Julia, not Rudd, not Faulkner; if it was someone in the room, Oakes had the story he needed without asking further questions.
Someone who wants to be seen as a mover and shaker, who wants to impress the press, and doesn’t really have much of a vision beyond their own personal ambitions.
And….
Look at the way Oakes got the story out. He merely asked a question. The rest of the media have made it a story, without him having to provide confirmation of any kind to back up his line of questioning.
If he knew for sure, he wouldn’t have gone down that path (and it took more effort – he actually had to go the NFC!)
As for the leaker, the profile I would suggest is:
1. Someone with a reputation for putting themselves ahead of the party.
2. Someone who is seen by the media as an up and comer in factional terms.
3. Someone who has previously been identified as being a king maker and of deposing party leaders.
4. Someone who is seen by the media as shifting his allegiance from Julia to Rudd.
5. Someone who comes from a faction and a state which has a history of promoting personal interests above those of the party.
The person I’m thinking of had very little to do with the leadership challenge, yet almost every article you read will have him named as a major player. He wasn’t, so why do the media think he was? — because he told them so.
If he is so anxious to have the media think he was a player (and there will be enough politely raised eyebrows around for the media to be uneasy about having identified himself as one) then he will be using every means he can to shore up this idea.
Good morning all.
Zoomster is spot on – I have been in politics for years and I’ve know exactly the sort of people he’s talking about. It was also something that occurred to me listening to Oakes ask his question; even though I knew Julia would repeat her line about keeping the confidence, he was still hoping against hope that she might say something to confirm it – because he actually didn’t know for sure.
I suspect Rudd would have been very cross when he learned about this. It infers that the leaker was either him or someone acting with his tacit approval and I think Kevin (despite what others might say) IS actually a team player at the end of the day, and understands that the important thing is keeping Labor in power.
And on that subject;
Thomas Paine – can you please answer a simple question? Do you want to see a Labor Government or a Liberal Government on the morning after the election?
If you are at heart a Labor person – and I’m seriously beginning to doubt that – then you would not be so keen to publicly denigrate the leader of your party, especially as it heads into a very important election.
If, on the other hand, you are a truly swinging voter who was a Kev fan and doesn’t have any loyalty to the Labor Party as a whole (or any other party), then the choice for you is simple: a Gillard Government or an Abbott Government.
Which one is it?
Sorry my 4 is the wrong way around, and should read:
4. Someone who the media identified, a couple of months before the leadership spill, as shifting their allegiance from Rudd to Julia.
surprise surprise. Andrew Bolt’s editorial in the ‘Herald Sun’ has declared that JG’s honeymoon is over and she is real strife. In fact, worse than when Rudd was leader and that she should now delay going to election.
Oh zoomster this is like “guess who don’t sue!”.
Mark Arbib?
“If you are at heart a Labor person – and I’m seriously beginning to doubt that – then you would not be so keen to publicly denigrate the leader of your party, especially as it heads into a very important election.”
We’ll why are they Labor party so happy to trash Kevin Rudd publically – it is a disgrace. Rudd went gracefully the Labor party decided to trash the guy when he was down -what a bunch of fools
Who of importance in the ALP has ‘trashed’ Kevin Rudd? The harshest comment made was that his government had lost its way, which isn’t so far from the truth.
He’s stated he hasn’t decided yet but that maybe a move to Opposition would help Labor mend its ways. He really doesn’t need to tell anyone how he intends to vote.
Exactly. Unless people have proof they shouldn’t spread defamatory comments.
Laurie Oakes was just interviewed on ABC radio. He said that Rudd told his advisors of discussions he had with JG, regarding going to Oct elections, and standing down prior if polls showed they would lose election. JG said it was sensible and reasonable, went to consult and came back and said it would not work. Oakes said that it was not an agreement, but obviously Rudd was hoping she would agree. Oakes also said that JG was right to challenge, as Rudd was finished and she did the right thing. So now I ask what is all the fuss about?
Did i not say it’s a storm in the cesspool?
“Who of importance in the ALP has ‘trashed’ Kevin Rudd? The harshest comment made was that his government had lost its way, which isn’t so far from the truth.”
faceless men/women of the party. The fact is they have been trashing his reputation, mangement style etc. totally uncessary and a complete waste of time.
Finns. Yes, but it has not stopped the MSM from making it into something more than it is. Again, they are creating a crisis of confidence and trust, and of course in turn destabilising the government. Sigh!
Yep a complete non story, storm in a teacup.
Once Rudd made his “offer” to stand down if the polls didn’t improve that was it, all over red rover. From then he became a lame duck pm. Can you imagine if Julia/the factions had accepted the offer – it would have been leaked the next day, the media would have been all over it and Rudd would have been hounded until he stood down. The damage to the party in the process would have been incalculable.
Once the smell of death is in the air in politics it just assumes a life of its own until the inevitable happens. Rightly or wrongly, the sooner the execution happens the better, as in Rudds case.
Let’s see whether The Oz run with the Abbott phone message story all day today and tomorrow like the “Gillard denial” saga.
It never ceases to amaze me that here on a site that it dedicated to polls, politics and political analysis – by definition, a site populated by political tragics – there are so many people who seem to be in denial about the very nature of politics and political processes, particularly as they revolve around the centres of power such as Prime Ministers, Leaders of the Opposition and State Premiers.
It is by nature a dirty game; it has been since Roman times and it will be until the planet Earth explodes. Leaders will be back-stabbed, destabilised, misrepresented and ratted-out, by colleagues as well as opponents. It is a game of ambition and envy and more often than not – particularly during power plays – it brings out the worst in people.
Kevin got knived because people wanted to get rid of him; Bob got knived because people wanted to get rid of him; Brendon got knived because people wanted to get rid of him; Malcolm got knived because people wanted to get rid of him; no doubt one day people will want to get rid of Julia and she’ll get knived, too.
Welcome to Politics 101.
There really IS nothing to see here, and people need to MOVE ON.
I havent caught up with the overnight conversation yet so if this has been already said I apologise. I watched the Press club yesterday and my interpretation of Oakes’s questions is that Kevin Rudd put the option to Gillard who then saw her advisers and the decision was made to reject any offer and challenge. I do not remember Oakes saying that a deal had been made and rejected, only that one was offered , however I may be incorrect in my recollection.The news reports then started about a reneged upon dealand that has been the theme being pushed ever since. That said I am afraid for the government. The first three articles on the Macquarie news this morning were all again negative to the government . The pressure from the press is relentless and I am starting to fear that the next PM will be Abbott.
I said the other day that I looked forward to ever seeing ASIC (or APRA) act BEFORE a major financial collapse. As if further proof is needed, here is another collapse being investigated, though it seems $120 million is already gone:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/marketing-allowance-paid-to-planner-20100715-10cnh.html
One of Howard’s weakest efforts in government was the self-regulation of private super funds and financial salesmen (they are not planners!). I can only see upside for Labor in tightening this area up and pointing it out to the electorate.
Is JG in Tassie all day today? Just wondering if she would be back in Canberra this afternoon to call on the GG
Well one of the suggestions is that Gillard told Rudd at the meeting that his plan sounded ‘sensible and reasonable’. It still doesn’t really change anything, however. Perhaps she changed her mind after talking to colleagues and decided his plan was neither sensible or reasonable. Who really cares.
paulofkotara – this is exactly why all left-of-centre voters who are angry about Rudd’s demise need to leave it in the past and now get behind the Gillard-led ALP.
The ALP will already have two opponents this election – the Coalition and the Media. The last thing they need is so-called supporters standing outside the tent pissing in as well.
Anyone who really treasures their left-of-centre principles would realise the absolute WORST thing you could have is a Coalition government, particularly led by Tony Abbott.
Yes chinda, a political leader who gets to leave of her or his own accord is a rarity, most of the time they’re given the boot either by their own party or by the public. I suppose some might argue Rudd should’ve been given the opportunity to be booted out by the public but they’ll have to forgive the party if it doesn’t agree.
don’t worry Paul, once Abbott has to come up with and defend some actual policies he will be exposed as the lightweight reactionary that he is.
At the moment he is really just a commentator, whenever there is a labor issue getting some air time we get the inevitable glib one liner from Abbott.
It’s almost worth calling the election just to get a little genuine focus on Abbott.
chinda63. I would say that the main opponent in the election will be the Media on all counts.
I’m sure Thomas Paine will be back at some stage to enlighten you. I can predict the post will include the phrases ‘prostitutes’ and ‘weather veins (sic)’.
Itep. I look forward to TP’s rants. They are highly entertaining!!
If the Libs were a credible Opposition then Labor would surely be a 1 term government.
The Libs have only themselves to blame IMHO.
Labor can’t help but make themselves the story it appears. It looks like they’re trying their hardest to lose the election.
….please
LoL sorry ltep a bad funny but hey.
Funny that Costello would be PM this year had he stayed on.
Must make him think really.
Itep. I would say that it is the media is doing its very best to bring the Labor government down. You only have to listen to the news bulletins. It is always started by stating something negative the opposition has had to say about Labor. For eg. “The Federal opposition has said today……………………..”. It never starts will any positive pronouncements about Labor.
Glen I sort’ve agree and disagree with the gist of what you’re getting at. But I think you’re ignoring one thing. The Libs have been successful at dragging the ALP to the far right (on asylum seekers and environment in particular. They have gained ground by forcing the ALP to fight on their ground. I’m not convinced Tones could win (nor do I think he will get close – probably reflects my own politics more than anything…but it’s been backed up by the polling to a degree). However, if they had a more ‘credible’ opposition (i.e. someone whose not a nut job) I’m not convinced that they would’ve been able to make up this initial ground because they would be forced to fight on the ALPs tuft so to speak.
The libs would be further behind if Costello was leader. Abbott may be clueless but Costello was pretty much detested by the electorate.
As for incompetent governments, didn’t Howard lose a few ministers during his first term?
Other than Joel Fitzgibbon, labor have done ok in this area.
victoria, then why would Labor figures be saying Gillard would be ‘stark raving mad’ to have Rudd back on the front bench? Why bother giving them ammunition? It’s a lack of discipline and an inability to focus on selling the Governments positives. Some have criticised this Government for being spin-focused. In my view they need to work on their spin some more and try again next term.
That’s called a Catch-22.
What positive ALP policies have been brought out lately though Victoria?
I can’t think I’ve heard of any from Labor or the Libs (though I do like their mental health policy) part from that there is nothing.
Imacca – He must have been asked to stop it because it’s been absent lately.
Tony Leary is keeping him on a tight control and the media only show him with groups of luvvies.
Agreed, and I think it’s something that most oppositions have to decide upon. Do they want to remain politically relevant but lose, or be politically irrelevant but lose. Hindsight being 20/20 and all that, it seems that they should’ve gone to Tones to shore up the ‘base’ earlier…
Yep after Tarago and then knife him early this year for Mr T.
Is she a moderate or another right wing luny like Abbott?
Indeed. How many times does Abbott use the word “mate”? I bet he will be more careful with his phone messages next time, like “call me back, bye”
Glen,
One shouldn’t fall under the spell of Costello. He had neither the guts, the work ethic or the maturity for the job. And if by some chance the media had got him over the line and into Big Chair, those failings would have meant he’d have been a disaster with whom you would eventually have been embarrassed, if not outright disgraced.
Morning all.
Plan A which was to have an budget reforecast on Wednesday, a headland speech on Friday and announcement of the polls on Saturday thereby framing Newspoll is looking like it was a good plan. The only other thing that could go wrong with it is if a half dozen or so boats arrive.
As far as I know when Sarah and Tony were having a presser down there and they asked a question on abortion. Tony butted in a tried a few ‘but, but, but, look, looks’ because she is pro-choice and Tony isnt. She even wrote an article in the papers attacking one of Tony’s positions when he was a Minister.
So I am assuming she is a wet (at least on some aspects of social policy) which means she isnt a nut job.
Henderson 4 PM!
Glen
Costello had accumulated a fair bit of contempt in his big business core constituency. Remember how hard he had to struggle to get a real job in the real world?
BTW, where is Peter?
Hammock?
Don’t give the Liberal campaign team any ideas.
The usual ones to make the oulandish claim that Labor is spin-focused are from the Coalition. It is of course the other way around. As any consumer of the news media would know the real spinning-top party is the Liberals. It apparently exists, not to develop policy or conceive plans for the public good, but as a super-industrious PR organisation. As is often noted here and on other blogs, the coverage given to the Opposition in recent years is massive.
If they put as much effort and earnest drive into developing policy and plans for social good as they do into spinning, spinning, spinning, Australia would be a far better place. They do us all – from whatever side of politics – a disservice with their self-serving obsession.
jv@3315 – I reckon this is exactly what Gillard has in mind with AS – acknowledge people’s fears and then slowly get them over that fear.
Saw the Labor candidate for Macquarie on TV this am and when asked what the electorate was worried about the top of his list was asylum seekers. The Lib fear has worked a treat in many places. It will take a long time to overcome it. Julia has made a start.
People think Costello would be PM? I don’t think he would have ever even been Opposition leader for long if he won it. Not Conservative enough. Would’ve been ousted.
BH@3639 Yes, I would agree that JG has made a start to neutralise the issue and in some ways muddy the waters by firstly acknowleding the concerns of the people and secondly seek some type of long term solutions. By doing this, she negates Abbott having total control of the AS agenda.
Two agendas are going on here:
1. Rudd (or a staffer) trying to make mishcief for Gillard, because they are bitter about how things turned out.
2. Oakes, trying to make himself relevant again at Nine. Have a look at the political reports on Nine, Oakes doesn’t do too many of them any more. They are usually fluff pieces handled by juniors aimed at the disinterested voter.
As for the impact on Gillard, I suspect it will be bugger all.
Great headline on ABC Online at the moment. I wonder if these ‘Labor figures’ are the same that like leaking internal polling to the most anit-Labor parts of the media. If there is some logic to all of this I don’t see it.
Not that it particularly has a swinging voter readership, but the front page story (followed by a full 2 page spread) of the AFR is
Aristotle….
Or it is from someone in the Gillard camp (union/factional backers)…who want to discredit Rudd and prevent him from getting a Ministry after the election.
What better way than make him look like a traitor?
Glen. Or it could be someone from the Abbott camp trying to destabilise the government?
According to the Age’s Tony Wright speaking on radio, Rudd was the only one to leave the room. He told Anthony Albanese and Rudd’s CoS Alister Jordan, who had both been waiting outside, about the results of the agreement he thought had been reached and asked them to make a written record. It was while Rudd was out of the room that Gillard was told for the first time how many of the Caucus would back her if she decided to roll Rudd.
Wright also claims that the movers and shakers in Washington and NY are getting mighty sick of Rudd continually phoning them to whinge about his circumstance. Apparently, he’s also making it clear he’s open to job offers.
Always a possibility if they knew the details.
Or it could be someone in the media making shit up.
The possibilities are endless, and it doesn’t change a thing. Gillard is PM, Abbott is Opposition Leader and we have an election coming up.
This the one?
http://www.theage.com.au/national/liberal-candidate-savaged-abbott-20100605-xly0.html
The sort of story you will never see on News Ltd or their ABC (for which organisation Henderson once worked).
What is the phone call story with Abbott – any links pleas3?
Yes Cuppa
Sarah is a monty to beat Cheesey (wonder if he still rides his bike?)
BH @ 3651
In today’s Courier Mail:
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/phone-message-reveals-tony-abbotts-vow-to-fix-michael-johnsons-legal-woes/story-e6freon6-1225892386067
Perhaps all is lost with this round of nutters (liberal and Labor), perhaps voters are better off voting green and trying to do something about bringing the Liberal party back from the dead. Perhaps single term governments ( Abbott would be lucky to make a term, Labor has shown the way to destroy a governments in less than a term) will do both parties some good.
Aristotle
I’m convinced it’s ’1′. The view in Canberra among Labor people is clearly that Rudd is behind the disclosure to Oakes. If so, why is Gillard obliged to stand on ‘honour’ and high principle in keeping quiet?
The only person who benefits from her silence now is Gillard herself. The best thing she can do is clear the air by confirming the thrust of Oakes’ disclosures form the Rudd camp by saying, “Yes, politics can be cruel sometimes, but the outcome is best for the country.” and move on. Then everyone else will too.
The worst thing she can do now is maintain what is no longer a principled silence but merely a sef-protecting one.
JV Listening to ABC radio at moment. There is a suggestion that leak has come from Rudd and some members of the ALP are suggesting that Rudd has blown any chance now of having a position on the front bench.
fredn,
How would returning the Liberals to office help in their road back to moderation?
They would take an election victory as an endorsement of their move to the ultra-right under Abbott. So they’d move ever further out there.
The only way they’ll be made to wake up to themselves is is with crushing electoral rejection.
“But some Labor figures are concerned about the details now appearing in the media and one has told the ABC that Ms Gillard would be “stark raving mad” to have Mr Rudd on the front bench after an election.”
Looks like the Labor party just can’t stop trashing Kevin Rudd -the spineless, ungrateful mob they are. They just keep leaking negative news on him. Personally I hope Rudd keeps fighting against this stuff with strategic leaks- he is more than justified in this approach.
JV – I disagree.
Gillard said yesterday that she will take it to the grave. To go back on her word now, in light of how strongly she stated it, would be the worst thing she could do.
Unless someone else – like Faulkner – caves and either confirms or denies anything (as opposed to maintaining a dignified silence as well) then we will never know the truth. I believe the public will give Julia the benefit of the doubt.
Remember that 95% of voters don’t give a toss about this stuff …
thanks BigShip – will take a look.
jv – agree with that. She can also point that her caucus colleagues were wanted the change. She could not have done it alone nor could the faction heads if the votes were not to be had.
I love the way nobody talks about the faction heads in the Libs, e.g Minchin, Abetz & Co who sneaked behind Turnbull’s back and did him in. Labor is a bit slow in providing that info in return.
Out of interest, has anyone ever seen the slightest bit of evidence that getting tough on asylum seekers works for the ALP?
I suspect ‘getting tough’ never works for anyone but the coalition.
Beazer and Latho lost. Rudd – the most progressive on the issue – won.
Where’s the evidence that this works for the ALP? I frankly think they’re better off running a quiet humane line, downplaying coalition fear campaigns by talking comparative numbers and Australia naturally protective sea borders , and changing the topic to issues that suit them.
I fear all they do is legitimise coalition fearmongering when they back down. People who might otherwise be convinced is not such a biggie start see “major party consensus” and are persuaded it is after all.
The real beneficiaries of all this are, of course, the Opposition.
While the focus is on the he said/she said, TEH BOATS! TEH BOATS!, and Look over there – a GBNT!, no-one is paying attention to the fact the Opposition not only have no policies, but are struggling to field a full contingent of candidates.
They are hoping that the more noise they (and the compliant media) make, the more likely it is they can a) knock Julia off her game and b) scare the ALP into delaying the calling of the election.
Julia’s best bet is the call the election today or tomorrow and start the sprint to polling day with the Coalition playing catch-up in terms of its campaign readiness. It would also turn the focus back around where it belongs; on the parties and their respective policies.
@BH/3660, in regards to the Libs with Turnbull being knifed, is because I think alot of people think its a matter of “who cares, they are the opposition”…..
chinda63
But who is Gillard now protecting in keeping mum when the party knows Rudd blabbed? Peter Brady?
She’s the only other participant. So she will ‘take to her grave’ something everyone knows, merely to protect herself. How principled.
to say that you would be saying that you know all that happened, no one knows for sure Mr. rudd has certainly opened my eyes to another Mr. rudd i did not know existed, i have decided i had rose coloured glasses where he is concerned and any one who says what he is doing is justirifed well i cannot stand it when people do things because of sour grapes, one day he will say when he over this why did i do that.
sorry but i am so angry that he would leek stuff.
All i am worried about is that we win the election Mr. rudd should proably not even stand if he going to do this i really thought he would show more decorum
after all he may he stood aside and decided to go no one in the end pushed him.
I am also very upset at the media in fact fed up.
This is just day time soapy stuff and its about time people with such intelligence stopped talking about it.
If i was william i would tell you all to start talking gossip and move on to policies ect.
frankly this is just a gossip site latley.
And to end this subject i remeber turnbull starting up a web site so people could agree with him and tell him things etc i know he was the opposition leader but the media never ever talked about the web site i looked at it all the time. Members wanting turnbull to start and other parter against the liberals etc.
So its just the same really.
Move on for goodness sake.
JV i think your talking to yourself
As soon as the election is called, most of the trivial non-stories and innuendo that has made fascinating political gossip will cease to be talked about, as the focus will be on candidates and policies instead…
chinda63. I mentioned in an earlier post that Andrew Bolt has said in his editiorial that JG should postpone going to an election, because she is in real strife at the moment, and she needs more time. Coming from Bolt, it would mean JG should call an election asap.
What policies? LoL!
glen so are you talking to yourself
Do you disagree with my descriptions of the situation? You are entitled to explain where I’ve erred on the issue.
Yes, I was thinking that! Combine that with the current opposition rhetoric of how “bad” the government are if they call an election now (while they still have their “honeymoon”). it’s obvious who would favour from an ASAP election. Most of them don’t have the nous to set up a double bluff, so I doubt it is a rhetorical ambush either. (No Admiral Akbar)
TSOP I also believe under current political climate, best to go to early election.
Maybe a big question for our unparalleled MSM – “Does the Lib party machine have Tone on Valium?”
Makes sense.
Rudd now honourable, after all. Happy days. The ‘honour’ and ‘principle’ around this issue is rampant.
Hope they aren’t talking about ground zero here:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/16/2955594.htm?section=justin
My Say: Rudd left with grace and decided to recontest his seat. The labor factions were not happy with that so they decided to launch a full on assualt on his character and past record, trashing his reputation. He is more than entitled to defend that through whatever means at his disposal. If that means leaking details of a deal – so be it that’s politics.
victoria @ 3602
As I stated yesterday afternoon (post 3058) when the story was first breaking – a storm in a teacup, now more like a mere swirl of cinnamon on a cappuccino.
This is a prime exemplar of the media’s obsession with trivia at the expense of policy analysis. Let’s put this whole thing in perspective – our nation’s new Prime Minister addressed the National Press Club for the first time in that role and outlines her economic credentials with the election imminent. Pretty important stuff for the future of the country regardless of your political persuasion, one would think, but what is the result? A ‘gotcha’ question from an increasingly irrelevant former media ‘heavyweight’ is the entire focus of the subsequent media reporting.
Oakes drops a great big turd on the floor of the NPC, and the assembled gaggle of hacks fall over themselves to add their own contribution to the steaming pile – what has our public discourse come to when this sort of pathological obsession with gossip and mindless trivia can dominate news coverage?
We are faced with substantive challlenges as a nation and as a democracy, and we deserve to be better served by our politicians and especially by the media that should be reporting and analysing the news, not making up the news, or worse still, being the news.
Oakes may once have been the doyen of the press gallery, the first among equals, but he is now an irrelevant husk, a caricature of his former self grovelling down in the pit of ordure of his own making.
It would be laughable, if it was not tragic for the health of our democracy.
I have listened to TA’s phone call to Michael Johnson. If its a leagl issue, he says, we will fix it. Surely, at the very least he should be questioned about this?
Not a single soul has yet asked him about his omission to pariliament about his home loan?
This guy is gonna get a free run. Makes me think about how free our press really is?
I didn’t know that Frank. The ABC gets paid for use of its OB Vans and returns the favour to noosltd by running the political agenda set by noos. Cosy!!
Big Ship
Some lovely turns of phrase in your contribution. Thanks.
‘Remember that 95% of voters don’t give a toss about this stuff …’
I wouldn’t be so sure about that. Check out the most viewed stories on the SMH web site. For once it’s not the usual cebrity sex scandal etc etc.
I hope JG calls an election in the next few days. I am much more interested in policy (Labor, Liberal and Greens) than in this political brawling.
Big Ship
The assassination intrigue is a political incident with arguable implications for the timing of an election, on the standing of Gillard, and on the polls. It is all over the media. It isn’t ‘gossip’, because it’s a true story of political events. If people are interested in it and what it means, then that’s up to them.
Labor people naturally want to trivialise it, but it will die off when it’s good and ready I’m afraid. The reason it hasn’t is Gillard herself. It would die off immediately if she would flatly deny it; and it would die off immediately if Gillard would admit that the Oakes Diaries are essentially accurate, and then say,”So what?”
She can remove the distraction if she wants. It’s her call.
Would it really? Wouldn’t they just launch a whole new series of questions at Gillard and expect her to discuss every part of her discussions with Kevin Rudd on that night? All of this is completely irrelevant and sidetracking from issues that really matter.
As usual, just catching up with the more recent posts (I always seem to be around 500 or so behind, things move so quickly).
I’ve noticed a few comments on what might be on the 24/7 ABC News channel and, although I have no more info than anyone else, judging by the usual suspects on the promo for it, it’ll probably be not worth watching. If it’s anything like Newsradio (or whatever it’s called) then it’ll be the same stories repeated at 30 min intervals, with 15 minutes of sport, traffic jams in Perth (handy when you live on the far north coast of NSW) and the temperature in Darwin (it’s usually 30 to 33).
Even during 9/11 and 7/7 news channels were finding it difficult to fill the space except by constantly repeating, speculating, often misinterpreting and repeating again “for those who’ve just joined us”. I personally think it’s a waste of bandwith and as for apparently using up their HD channel for it, well, words fail me.
If they intend to broadcast Parliament then they will have the same problem as now when both houses are sitting. Waste of space!
Actually marktwain’s comment @ 3250 about reading a book makes a lot of sense!
and on shockjock radio including ABC radio. Did any of them report that Oakes has now said there was no agreement just a comment that it seemed reasonable.
Is there any difference in Rudd being rolled as against Senior Libs meeting in Oct 2007 to roll Howard just before the election. If they’d had a popular candidate (Costello wasn’t) then they would have rolled Howard. It’s called politics.
ltep
Maybe, but it is a distraction that should be taken control of. Answer all the quesitons before they are asked. If it is a non-issue with no implications, then why wouldn’t Gillard get on the front foot – especially when there is no longer any ‘confidentiality’ issue. She should take it by the scruff of the neck and shake it until it’s dead. It won’t take long if there’s nothng in it at its core, as you imply.
The current crop of Labor advisors should suffer the same fate, I sometimes think.
My only caveat in this non story of what was supposedly discussed between Rudd and JG on that night, is if in fact Rudd is trying to throw a cat amongst the pigeons.
If this is indeed the case, then JG has certainly some sorting out to do.
I know it’s called politics BH, and you’d think the ALP would be better at it by now.
Any of these intellectual giants on the ALP right who thought that the whole coup would be over and done with and we’d all move on with a bit of dog-whistling and non policies must have been dreaming.
But those of us who live in NSW understand the calibre of these people only too well.
Of course it’s a distraction from issues that matter, but since both parties are unable or unwilling to discuss anything of substance, it’s not much of a distraction at all.
The Big Ship@3678. You have described the current state of affairs very accurately. Sigh!
adrian
We do indeed. And according to a background article in the SMH last Saturday, some Labor insiders say that at least part of the reason for Faulkner’s resignation, or at least what he is going to try to fix now he has more time, is Arbib’s increasing influence in the party. I found that interesting. If so, more power to Faulkner. The last thing the party needs is those right-wing braindead mafioso dynasty builders getting control federally. Seems there are a couple in the southern states too, aqlso lurking anonymously in the shadows with paring knives in their socks.
jaundiced view @ 3684
Utter nonsense – Oakes himself has debunked the entire premise of the last 18 hours of obsessive media blatherings on this non-issue. Oakes has confirmed there was no real agreement, only that Gillard had stated that the idea seemed ‘reasonable’ then the meeting behind closed doors broke up for an unspecified time (one assumes less than an hour, but it may have been more – so what either way) to reconvene when more discussions had taken place among the stakeholders for Gillard to update Rudd with the news that, in the majority view his plan would not fly, so there would be a challenge.
Where amongst all of this alleged ‘intrigue,’ are there any implications for Julia Gillard’s honesty or integrity beyond what any reasonable observer would call ‘politics?’
This is a beat-up of gargantuan size, an Everest created from a dunghill, and not worthy of the vast amounts of hot air already expelled, especially from the well upholstered and generously proportioned Laurie Oakes – talk about methane emissions!
Belinda Neale holding up very well on Agenda on the subject of the Oakes turdbomb.
I wonder if Tone’s phone call would be mentioned on Crickey’s homepage?
The question should be asked of Tone just HOW he would have made Johnson’s legal worries to disappear.
Yeah, sure.
The Age online is reporting that JG is going to GG tomorrow for August 28 election.
For those of you who think ABC News and SKY are a bit too similar…
“Sky sources said Sky’s overnight coverage is branded “News 24” on the Foxtel program guide. A mobile phone service providing Sky News is also called “Sky News 24”.
When the ABC announced earlier this year the name would be ABC News 24, Sky sought assurances the national broadcaster would not undermine Sky’s established brand by using the words “News 24”. Sources say these assurances were given by the corporation’s lawyers.”
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/sky-threatens-legal-action-against-abc-over-news-24/story-e6frg996-1225892651458
Good
Vic, so is the OO. they have cleared all the Oakes “gotcha” stuff from the front headlnes.
The election date is also reported by the ABC.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/16/2955610.htm
Big Ship
How is it ‘utter nonsense’ to say there are ‘arguable implications’ in this when the media is tumescent with such implications being argued?
If there are no implications and it’s only about honesty in politics (it’s OK to lie as long as it’s only in politics?) then why is Gillard letting it run by keeping stum, when it within her power to stop it?
It doesn’t stack up.
thats exactly my point so why are grown up people here so fascinated by it
god help us i stopped buying those magazines years ago.
came here for a little bit of conversation and what do you get
soapies\
think about this it may be because the liberals have no policies nothing to say except one liners so liberals here are very happy to keep it going, the media will get sick of it soon.
frankly i would like to deduct my 10 cents a day from my tax re the abc if they cannot talking about things that matter why should we listen to them
And you naturally want to make more of it. Even stevens I would say.
be cause she cannot be bothered she a busy woman in case no one has noticed.
jv move on will you
According to ninemsn JG will still give Rudd a senior ministry position if Labor win the election.
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/7930420/gillard-to-keep-promise-to-rudd
And with the calling of the election guess what BS will be swept off the front pages.
[The election date is also reported by the ABC.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/16/2955610.htm
some one here precicted exacly this was it this morning
now you wath them change the subject
Gary. It will be swept off the front pages, but they will continue with the meme of government instability etc. Although, I suspect if JG gives Rudd assurance he has a position on front bench. The leadership saga will become a non issue.
JG hasn’t lied about anything according to Oakes.
Now can we return to the real debate please.
some policies from tone would be good to discuss first off
does any one know where we can find one.
if you go to the NEW labor site you can see them and put them here and discus them
If it is 28 August then I think that’s the correct strategy. I can’t imagine the polls getting any better than they are due to the natural ‘brand new PM’ bounce. Better to try to ride on that than wait for the inevitable disappointment to set in, given the continuation of the policy lacuna. I just hope Gillard sees the Garnaut model with an interim carbon price as the electorally beneficial way to go, because she is clearly not in M Gorbachov’s definition of what a great leader is: she won’t do it for the good of the country but she might for a better chance of re-election.
Hey Tone! Can you hear us in there in your cave? It’s almost time to come out and face the reality of policy.
Good. If true, watch most of the trivial rumours and innuendo disappear as the media become focused on actually covering an election.
The hacks in the media will start getting lonely too, as they’ll realise they’re not taken seriously, and other media outlets have been entertaining their theories and views out of pure boredom.
If that report is right this non issue, which will not change a vote, has about 24 hours of life, if that.
Tony said “…. if its a legal problem, we obviously would fix it” or wtte.
It seems no one is interested in this including our own Cirkey.
By the way just ask yourseves this question. When would have been a more in opportune moment for Labor for this to come out, now or in say, 4 or 5 weeks time?
What will Julia Gillards priorities in the first week of the campaign be?
and
Will it be a negitive or positive campaign?
I hope this is correct.
Because it’s an issue that doesn’t have legs.
We’ve got enough of an argument against letting that man anywhere near power as is. We don’t need to get in the mud with allegations.
Gary, I had actually was thinking that somehow it had to come out now just before the election was going to be announced. Funnily there appears to be a timing about it all. I can’t help being a conspiracy theorist at times!
Conroy is appparently considering a new way of filtering the internet for presentation next term after the ‘review’. Finally, an internet filter we can believe in:
http://www.godblock.com/
I heard Tone speak of Rudd as being “assassinated”. Given that “an assassination is the targeted killing of a public figure, usually for political purposes” can someone tell me when Rudd’s state funeral will be held?
I heard Tone speak of Rudd as being “assassinated”. Given that “an assassination is the targeted killing of a public figure, usually for political purposes” can someone tell me when Rudd’s state funeral will be held?
By the looks of things, Gillard will be running on the good management of the last few years and the hope for the future. It will be slightly peppered with a reminder of how bad of a mistake Abbott would be. But current rhetoric suggests a more positive campaign.
Abbott will be attack attack! With a couple of policies thrown in to look like an alternative. Maybe some “human” moments too. However, negativity is all he is good for.
The Greens will probably run a “let’s make history” campaign, as they are chasing the prospect of their first HoR seat, as well as their first sole BoP in the Senate. They will mix it with criticisms of both major parties, especially on the issue of climate change.
Hey JV,
Godblock, Love it (-:
Ms Gillard is cutting and running
Ms Gillard is cutting and running and winning Glen.
Glen. Where is JG running to? pray tell?
I hope Labor does focus on its positives particually the econony (it’s the economy stupid!). IMHO Abbot will provide ample reasons over the campaign to put voters off the Libs.
an election
hubris
And so will Labor be reminding people of what Abbott plans to cut. It won’t hurt Labor’s cause any.
I wonder if the Libs will still use those stupid ad’s featuing B&W photos and L plates?
I’m pretty sure Medicare Gold will get a run
LOL!
This election I predict will be the dirtiest we have ever seen.
I’m not a betting man but I am curious to know if there’s any money at all on someone other than Abbott leading the coalition on election day.
I wonder what Turnbull thinks of Tone’s sympathy for the way Rudd was over thrown. I seem to recall Mal was dispatched of too by one A Abbott.
As BK mentioned on an earlier post, will T Abbott come out of hiding once election officially called, or will he continue to send out footsoldiers to speak for him?
j.v. you must be bitterly disappointed that your thoughtful and helpful advise to Labor is not acted on,how ungrateful they are. From now on will you please offer your sage wisdom to your soulmates in the Coalition. I think the Labor types on here are getting sick of your ‘helpfulness’.
Just checked out the Liberal party website:
1. very light on policy detail.
2. They are using a very pleasant shades of blue.
Gary
Abbott has an unhealthy obsesssion with killing people…drowning AS; send more troops to Afghanistan; only commandment haven’t broken, for lack of opportunity…
A Morgan is due about now …
Yes glen you are correct running around tasmania bless her cutting a lovley figure as well her dress sence is amamazing
i thought you said you left the liberals
doesnt sound like it.
Well, Abbott’s in it, isn’t he.
With Abbott, News Ltd and their ABC all pulling on the one end, your prediction will likely be shown correct.
And look at the violent rhetoric he uses. Roadkill, Battlelines, Abbott’s Army … nutcase material.
MySay I am critical of both Tone and Ms Gillard.
Labour Party website,
1. More information than before mentioned Liberal website.
2. Shade of blue not as pleasant as Lib’s site but the home page does have some tasteful orange.
Opps, ment to say Labour.
Oops
Dont worry Mick I mean it’s the way it should be spelt only the ALP chose not to for some reason.
Probably like the Libs calling themselves Libs stead of Tories. Maybe the ALP wanted to be different to the British Labour Party?
glen even if I thought something critical and i dont at this time of the policial calander
i would kepp my thoughts to my self as the main game is the election;’
Anyone else getting this when they type in “Morgan Poll” in Google?
… but then when you visit the site it isn’t refreshed yet? Is something wrong with my browser?
Indeed Cuppa, a long line of death and violence
BTW, very nice line yesterday to describe Liberals’ “policies”: Slogans for Bogans
I guess us Aussies like to be a little different.
Many Americans I speak to are fascinated that we call our main conservative party the Liberal party
As are Canadians who have a Liberal Party that is a Liberal Party.
i beleive it will be very positive but of course one cannot not realy on the tories todo so
Here’s a few of ads for the Libs. PM material.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itUmT2LRPzo&NR=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7aj8B5sM2o
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z72Vl-BuIyE&feature=PlayList&p=3D8B426F21BCFFAA&playnext_from=PL&playnext=1&index=32
cheers,
MD
Our family in Canada vote liberals we where very amazed to find out they are on the same side as us we did not realise this for a while then we all got on great
delete of, used to be a couple … of
LOL
Seriously??
The Libs arent the only ones who engage in negative advertising, everybody does it. It is hardly fair to blame the Libs for the ALP going negative IMHO!
Thanks Laocoon. I thought I must have been talking to myself for a while there, but clearly not.
The most interesting thing about the Oakes thing is the TIMING of his questions. If the leak happened AT THE TIME, I assume reporting it then would have damaged the very positive coverage Gillard got when she took over. If the leak happened more recently, Oakes mentioning it during the election campaign would have been potentially more damaging than now. So why now?
What hypocrites the media and the Liberals are, all this phoney sympathy for the man that they campaigned so hard to bring down.
The Greens website,
1. Lots of information
2. Looks like it was designed by high school students as an assignment, many links didn’t work and the colours and graphics are terrible.
3721 To Speak of Pebbles
Because it’s an issue that doesn’t have legs.
We’ve got enough of an argument against letting that man anywhere near power as is. We don’t need to get in the mud with allegations.
Agreed but journalist should question him on the “fix it” bit. The point I am trying to make is he is getting a free run and this is not good for our democracy. I am a Labor supporter but I have no problems with journalist asking Labor politicians tought questions. That is what our democracy is all about.
on google there is the morgan if you type in morgan poll but not when you go to the site.
just because he wanted to i suppose
can we forget it Julia has to so so should we
i assume the Abbott phone call incident is not getting much coverage in the MSM. A far bigger issue than the Gillard one. What does ‘taking care’ of legal problems actually mean??
This will be a nasty,vindictive, sly,viral, lying internet-dominated campaign. The discourse from Abbott and Gillard will be civil.They have no choice. Their surrogates will run a parallel campaign that will be 100 per cent negative. The news cycle will be measured in hours – not a day. Polls will dominate. Sky News and ABC 24 will attract peak ratings – people simply watching the title fight. But, in the end and in the polling booth, the result will come down to the basic question: who do you want as Prime Minister.
Abbott’s call to the former member for Ryan is getting good coverage on ABC radio brissy.
I’m not predicting it, but HOPING that when we have an official campaign underway, Abbott is asked some real questions and the media report on some real stories. The 24-hour news cycle and the need for them to break the “latest news” is sickening.
And she will leave Tony Abbott in her wake.
ruawake. the Daily Terror has the actual audio of Abbott leaving a message on member for Ryan answering machine.
So with the possible exception of “internet-dominated”, it’ll be just like all the others.
Frank Brennan has the best analysis I have seen so far and is definitely the most sensible and accurate.
He is quite critical of the OZ and various players in the saga and in my opinion, he is quite right in his reading of the situation. It’s a pity that “some” people (you know who you are) don’t take some note of Brennan’s comments.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/rudds-suffered-enough-so-can-we-lay-off/story-e6frg6zo-1225892367838
Andrew
To be honest, I havent been bothered to read all FIVE pages of the Kill Kevin story in the AFR…however, that would not have been written between NPC 1.30pm and press time of c.7pm yesterday
One wonders if there is a pattern to bringing these Night of the long kinives story out now? If so, who benefits?
To continue your line of thought perhaps, it might be better for these to come out now, before the election campaign proper
As opposed to Tone who will be running and cutting.
Actually, Abbott is reminding me a bit of a combination of Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon…wonder when Caro’s next volume on the former is due out…
Labor now has to pressure Abbott over policy – or rather the lack of it – at every turn.
Phrases like “a policy free’ zone come to mind. Got to force him out into the open where it will be patently obvious that he has nothing to offer but negativity.
That’s a very clever comeback Hugh – and so true.
Darn. speaking of policies, what do you make of the Liberal’s policy regarding mental health?, and is the Govt lacking policy in this area?
I saw Emerson on the ABC Midday News getting stuck into Abbott over the leaked tape.
How embarrassing that Phoney got overruled by the LNP hierarchy.
Andrew,
Abbott’s got quite a bit of form in this regard but always done one step removed and in the background.
A classic example is the Pauline Hanson issue but he got caught out somewhat with that as someone couldn’t keep quiet then also.
I think the Liberals have made themselves vulnerable because they are paying for it by ripping the money out of other parts of the health budget. About what you would expect from Abbott.
But I do think Labor needs to do more in this area – and it wouldn’t surprise me if they had been planning to do so anyway.
Darn. Yes, I do hope the govt. does make more funding available in this area. It is sorely needed.
How about the billions saved from eventually passing the means testing of the private health rebate directly going to fund mental health services?
When the dust settles (the Rudd thing, asylum seekers etc) if Labor don’t go hard – and I mean vicious – on Abbott and his joke of a potential front bench then I will be supremely disappointed. Policy, policy, policy. Hit ‘em hard.
Wait till the pressure builds up to an intolerable level and the aggressive, violent-mouthed pugilist lashes out at someone with his fists. It will make world headlines. Remember: he’s already been thrown out of Question Time for shaping up into a sparring stance against his opponents.
of course and there will be at least three debates the bets on of course will be julia
tone but i would love to see one between the expoliceman cannot think of his name and Nicola
Scorpoi – agree the Frank Brennan piece is good.
Lacoon – I read 2/3 of the AFR piece not much in it really probably the most interesting is at the beginning where it talks about the mining lobby visiting ALP HQ with polling numbers and their roll in removing the PM.
gloryconsequence. I would be happy if Labor hit them with an iron fist wrapped in a velvet glove!
gosh when was that
Scorpio@3782
Exactly. I was just thinking about the Hanson issue. As much as i did not like here, I deplored the underhand way in whcih Abbott dealt with her. Now he is running for the top job, questions should be asked of him for the “fix it” bit.
where is that / i that father frank brennan
have read it now but one think i dont beleive Julia and co would of mentioned anything after the day it happened if the press had not
Wot, Sky News has been there all week.
The amount of vitriol posted over at the Herald Sun relating to JG is 10 to 1 against her. Whoever is moderating, surely knows what side their bread is buttered.
The Liberal Spin Army is on the march (as usual). Swamping blogs and talkback, ‘working’ online polls.
It’s the country’s most hyper-industrious spin organisation.
Adrian – for a long time those of us in NSW were glad to see the back of the last Liberal govt. here. They were a bunch of dimwits in comparison with Wran and Carr but after 10 years Govts. need to either refresh their team or get kicked out.
Unfortuntely Labor didn’t get kicked out and they still left fruitcakes like Tripodi in place. They will lose next year and refresh whereas the Libs will have OBarrell. We’ll sit back and watch the fights as the RW christian mob in the Prty go in for the kill and try to dislodge O’Barrell who by that time have driven us batty. He might be a nice bloke but he will be similar to Labor’s ‘cardigan guy’ and the punters will be asking for more.
In the meantime the MSM have had fun last night and today. Middleton was salivating on SBS last night about Labor’s woes and the SBS news was a Labor bashfest for the first 4 or 5 items. Gilbert on Sky was salivating as well but neither he nor Middleton mentioned that Laurie Oakes had said there was no agreement between Kev and Julia. f
At the time of the meeting the ABC and Sky were already running with the story that the caucus wanted Kev to go. Of course Julia needed to speak to them about any agreement with Kev before giving a definite answer.
A beat up and they love it. Murphy said yesterday that it was all just fun for the press gallery, most of whom knew the story, but only Oakes wanted to ask the question. Who does Oakes work for? It’s newspoll weekend so what more can we say.
Ummm explain why PB is full of the Labor Army?
For those who don’t remember it and for those who would rather it was forgotten.
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/08/22/1061529330032.html
You forgot the Green Army – oops sorry thats a Tone patent term
Julia should get in the car tomorrow and lead the fat overfed bunch of (SNIP: See article 2 of comment moderation guidelines – The Management) on a long chase around the national capital before returning to the lodge. From what I have observed on television a big sweat and a long jog would do a lot of the press a power of good and with luck there might even be less of the pompous know alls at the canteen on Monday.. I now get most of my news from the web and am p……d that I cannot even go for a morning run any more and listen to Sky Sports without getting the latest news from Lib headquarters. I need to visit here more often to keep my sanity.
Yes Rua I stand corrected.
PB is the home ground for the Labor Spin Army (Adam/Frank), Green Spin Army (bob1234) and the North Queensland Separatist Movement aka LNP (Toothy).
Good old Bernard Keane, just touched on the Tone Fone issue.
Scorpio – and the OO has the hypocrisy to run that story when they have been one of the biggest perpetrators in this saga. It turns one’s stomach but thanks for linking it.
BTW where was Brennan when Kev needed him earlier to counteract the campaign against him in the media. You cannot blame everything on leaks from Labor because the campaign has been going on since 2006 and intensified after Abbott.
Same as the Qlders now who are mad because Kev has gone – where were they when he needed their backup! spare me, please.
Glen,
Do you share my suspicion about the swamping of blogs and talkback by Coalition activists? Professional polling tells us year after year that Australians are split roughly 50:50 Labor – Liberal. When blogs and talkback etc show 90:10 imbalances (or whatever the breakdown) of comments favouring the Coalition, it does seem suspicious, do you agree?
And those online polls which ALWAYS show a pro-Coalition result, no matter the issue. Knowing how easy it is to ‘work’ polls, do you agree that the Coalition must regularly be doing so for the consistently wildly non-representative results to keep coming up?
Plse accept my apology…..I do however feel better.
How would I know?
If they do it wouldnt surprise me at all.
I’m Labor will get going on that front if an election is called.
Unlike the spinnerific Labor & Liberal sites, it’s actually been built with minimal funds – and none from corporations.
ABC News radio at lunchtime was all about the election being called on the weekend, date tipped for the last Saturday in August. Guess its a slow news day…
I wonder if there is any correlation between the frequency of PB posts and elections being called? Maybe Poss coudl run some regression numbers, plot the curve, and make the call.
I said it woudl be called within three weeks two weeks ago, but I was just guessing. Only seven days left before I’m wRONg.
I’ll be on News Radio at around 4.15pm EST, for those of you who like that kind of thing.
Socrates.
Its on for the 28th
why has morgan not been put on when you can see if if you google morgan polls
The Morgan result that’s coming up on Google is last week’s.
So we’re taking it the Morgan is 55/45? Morgan are also saying Labor up 6% since late June (I don’t recall the 49/51 poll though?)
Ah… retract that then
.
So, if the election is called for the 28/8 would we be expecting a first round of polling from the major pollsters to occur this weekend, published monday?? That would give an interesting track of how the polls move from the very start of the campaign through to the election wouldn’t it?
Anyone have any idea what the release schedule will be?
Certainly there’ll be a Newspoll on Sunday or Monday evening.
Morgan this afternoon.
Newspoll Monday.
Galaxy/Nielsen anyone’s guess.
Newspoll is overdue. So my guess is they will be out Monday.
Yep, I enjoyed the last one but I have to wait for Frank to give us the link. Good on yer, Frank
Then there will be polls of varying veracity for weeks, polly bludger heaven.
Agree 100%, unfortunately, Labor factional bosses need the same lesson. Voting Labor back in won’t give them that lesson. Abbott won’t last more than a term, that is if Labor can sort itself out.
You don’t dump a popularly elected PM because you don’t like the way he treats factional bosses.
So the question is, do you put off giving the liberals a beating so as to deal with the immediate issue?
On the other hand a Liberal beating might bring the Liberal party back from the dead quickly, which will probable bring Labor down. It’s a hard one, which bunch of miss fits should be given a go.
fredn I vote hung parliament
My Say
“i have decided i had rose coloured glasses where he (Kevin) is concerned and any one who says what he is doing is justirifed well i cannot stand it when people do things because of sour grapes”
My Say I’m afraid you hav beleived some silly posters here repeeting MSN bias , th same anti labor posters who claimd Labor would hav definitively won Election & same silly posters saying that Kevin Rudd was asasinated without notice
Can i say what we know for a fact becuae whilst i suported leedership change (that i’ll come to) , trashing of Kevin07 is unjustify as its simple based on innuendo and gossip
1/ Labors 33% primary vote , and Labors OWN internal MARGINAL SEAT polling and its focus group & qualative polling showed Labor wuld lose Electon or was at great risk
One of main causes for this was Kevin07 himself , he lost voter credibilitys mainly by deferring climate change action by 3 years He made a one blue but a bad one among hundreds good ones he made
therefore approx 85 of th 115 Labor Fed MP’s wanted a new leeder (because of these dire polls) to giv Labor a good chanse to get re-elected…. AND as per Laurie Oakes even Kevin07 thought risk was of losing was great becaus he offered to stand down !
2/ So leedership change decision ws simple survival of a Labor govt based on polls , and NOT all this trashing non sense trashing Kevin’s character Thats why approx 85 Labor MP’s acted
3/ this does NOT change fact that Labor Govt Reforms hav been fantastical since 2007 , and that Kevin07 therefore deserves great congrats and praise as a key player as PM for acheiving so much He does , and poeples damn should not forgot that legacy
4/ Kevin07 has leeked nothing , neither will julia or John Fawkner !
they had confidential conversation & it will stay that way These ar honorable people
5/ Kevin07 left with grace and is recontestin his griffith seat , and this is ALL helping Labor & Julia (and it is not what Latham did which was shiting on Labor)
6/ Julia has guaranteed Kevin a SENIOR Cabinet portfolio after electon , he wants FA but think hell get Defense , and like Kim Beasly he’ll do a good job of this complex very Senior Cabinat area
So he aint going to spoil that chanse of being Labor’s Defense Minister by leeking anyway !!
anyways he left with great grace , and also Kevin gave a pro Labor pro Julia public fareqell speech as well , and he has kept his mouth shut so he has already done rite thingy by Labor anyway as proof
7/ ALOT of people got told about meeting of Julia , Kevin & John Fawkner , anyone could hav leeked it for there own selfish motives and with there own biased version Now a Kevin staffer Lachlan Harris has fessed up in a twitter to leeking…but he probably a angry young over loyal to Kevin blabber mouth , or is bragging …but not with Kevin’s approval for reasons I listed abov
8/ Laurie Oakes story simply says Kevin07 offered to stand down so he knew from those ALP internel Polls Labor was in great danger of losing anyway
Lawrie Oakes publicly says today there was NO agreement from Julia to accept Kevin’s offer , instead Oakes says today Julia respinded saying it was a rasonable offer and that she went away to consult about it
(but Laurie Oakes cunningly left that bit “she went away to consult” from his Press Club Q to Julia ….to do a gotcha on her !!
When that gottcha Q did not work , Oakes publicly today admits Julia made no agreeent to Kevin’s offer ! and that “she went away to consult” , and came back saying no…if she had of said yes then once news of that broke w’d hav a lameduxk PM offering to resign told to th Public , and Labor would get thrased , so she said no
( and anyway th majority approx 85 of 115 of MP’s were with her taking over she knew)
9/ so My Say , Julia , kevin and John Fawkner had a civil chat , they will keep it confidential as they should , but clearly Kevin07 offered to stand down proving that th Labor MP’s views that Labor was probably gonna lose th electon was correct in th first place seeing Kevin also thought so !!, and so proving a leedership change WAS needed to giv Labor a chanse
Whilst Kevin07 was a workaholic working 20 hours a day we know that from info , & prob did not delegate enuf but neither did Keating , but dont beleive this trashing of Kevin personaly of leeking a confidendial chat , nor trashing his character (as no one is perfecto) , nor trashing his great PM record now…. we hav Julia to carry on th lite of Labor…..MSN and anti Labor pests simple playing mud games…its there standard , not ours
yu said j/v talks to himself here , yes , but just dont listen to him or his ilks
VexNews hears the election will in fact be called for August 21 rather than August 28. Papa says, “If you see it in VexNews, it’s so.”
Cuppa@3806. Your assessment is correct. If support for each party is roughly 50/50, it does not add up that on all the media polls and blogs posted at each site, favour the opposition. It is too lopsided not to be tampered with. It would be more believeable, even if the split was 60/40 or even 70/30, but usually it is 90/10 from my experience. It is very frustrating.
Quenty better get the writs issued quick smart then.
Most of the non-Christian religions (Judaism and possibly some others excluded) are heavily ALP and/or Green voting as they would be heavily NESB and/or New Age. No religion is also correlated with ALP and Green voting so a Christmas election would likely mean a demographic disadvantage for the Coalition but they would gain the anti-Christmas election protest vote.
Ron@3825. You make a fair assessment of the situation.
Don’t see why, RU. Four weeks can elapse between the writs and election day, and this still leaves five.
21/8 would be great! I’ll be out in the field with a bunch of students on the 28th so wont be available to hand out HTV’s. 21st and i can be involved in some small way in the crushing of Abboots ambitions to wreak havoc, mayhem and despair on the country.
Not that i am into partisan politics at all…………..
Isn’t it 33 days?
http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/07/16/canberra-in-a-froth-as-election-speculation-reaches-crescendo/#comments
I still remember the gaffs Robb made last time and he’s even more miserable to listen to now so – with the lies he has to tell it’s no wonder he’s a misery. Joe is being the happy big chappy running around the marginals telling everyone how bad Labor is but not daring to speak a work about his portfolio policy.
“Four weeks can elapse between the writs and election day, and this still leaves five.”
The writs could actually be issued on the 23/7 and still leave the 4 weeks couldn’t they?
It would be such a nice poke in the eye for Abboots Rabble to have a full week for people to get their enrollments up to date despite the Fibs best efforts.
Sorry, you’re right RU – it would have to be done on Monday.
Who issues the writs? The GG?
Victoria,
It’s all part of the Coalition’s absolutely massive push to manipulate public opinion.
We see it in the various online manifestations mentioned. We see it (hear it) in the deluge of talkback calls who take the same side of the issues, whatever the issues happen to be. Then it extends to the overwhelming coverage the Coalition gets in the ‘news’ media – aided and abetted by the media themselves as willing partners – a noticeable phenomenon if ever there was one, which Poll Bludgers have spent hundreds of posts lamenting, to William’s tedium.
They’re scarcely interested in policy or things of that nature. It’s all about the spin, PR, public opinion-manipulation and media management. The Coalition is the most hyper-industrious spin organisation in the country.
I reckon Julia will call the election tomorrow but not issue writs until the 26th July for an Aug 28th election. This gives people a week to enrol or update their details.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/07/16/come-in-spinner-the-quest-for-authenticity/#comments
Tone might be charming and engaging but when he is thinking of something nasty to say or is listening to something he doesn’t like his eyes are as cold as a dead fish and that calculating look turns most women right off.
In the SM:
Explain legal “fix” Abbott: Roxon
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/explain-legal-fix-abbott-roxon-20100716-10drq.html
Rudd issues statement saying he did not leak the story.
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/
Go Nicola!!! Is Tone’s “Mr Fixit” then??
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=7930593
So, who leaked the Abbott call?
Michael Johnson, independent candidate for Ryan.
And openly admits it!
And kept it quiet since Feb. He must have been so conflicted.
I agree. My understanding is that if it were for the 21st, the latest the writs could be issued is Monday, which considering we are a few hours away from the beginning of the weekend (as far as business hours are concerned) it means there would not be enough time to get the last minute “voting virgins” enrolled.
Now let’s see Boerwar, who’s answering machine was it?
Or if you’d rather conspiracy theories … TA DA …. a born again fifth columnist within Abbott’s office who couldn’t bear the lies and deceit any longer.
Boerwar. Hi there. What time can we expect today’s scores?
maybe she is happy for people to miss out, so its another thing she can beat the Libs over the heads with. would probably get on mondays 6 o’clock news… Cue deep voice (man or woman). “Thousands of young Australians are set to lose their chance to vote in the upcoming federal election. Changes made to the electoral act by the former Howard govt… etc…)
My Say
g’day , this NOW confirms my #3825 post
“Kevin Rudd has denied feeding political reporting veteran Laurie Oakes information about a meeting he held with Julia Gillard the night before he lost the prime ministership. “
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/7930578/rudd-denies-being-source-of-oakes-leak
I must say I am sad to say that I know have a new record for how far off my prediction for the election date was: 3 weeks.
I must be getting worse in my old age!
Ron i thought from what i said you would realise i am agreeing with you,
Gillard in Tasmania: I think that completes the grand tour.
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Sid-For-a-Fair-Go-In-Braddon/107712779278927
August 21 is extremely tempting for Labor because it’s the anniversary of Labor’s greatest ever federal election win, in 1943 – as I think I was the first to point out in a public forum (here). Also Landeryou is generally very well informed on Labor matters. But issuing the writs on Monday would mean quite a lot of people failing to enrol in time.
I think someone will be thinking how can we get every last vote.
middle man 3851
Nah. For both political reasons and reasons on principle, it would not be in Labor’s interest to shut the door on new young voters.
Mr Abbott, Mr Abbott, I’ve got this speeding ticket, see …
@fredn/3823,
Voting in Labor might not teach the factional bosses in, but neither will voting them out will do that, you only need to look at the Liberals for that…
All the candidates have now had their pic taken with Julia.
i know that. apparently while young we all vote labor and then grow up to cross over to the dark side… at 38 i’m still waiting to see what is so tempting over there…
Andrew @ 3767
The only MSM paper it headlined up my way, as in front page news, was in the Brisbane Courier Mail – full page shot of his face (and not very flattering either). Normally we sell out of that paper (my workplace is just on the border) but for some strange reason there are quite a bundle of CM’s left today! Not quite sure what it says but could be the readership were just put off by the mugshot. As a side issue, we have the same reaction to Shapelle Corby or Jennifer Aniston on the women’s mags! Much fewer sales. Maybe voters have gone off him before the campaign even starts?
Tuckey stuffed up a few years ago when he tried to fix his son’s traffic ticket himself. He should have done what I’m doing, going through that nice Mr Abbott.
If as being reported election set for 28/8/10, Andrew Bolt won’t be happy JG has not taken his advice to delay the election because he believes she is in STRIFE.
On a technical issue re the electoral roll, I recently moved just over the border into NSW and have advised the electoral office so. I haven’t yet received that little card you get giving you your federal and state electorates. If an election is called soon and I’ve not yet received advice of change of roll before the actual election I suppose it should be a simple matter to phone the new electorate to see if I am actually enrolled?
Or would I have to go to the old electorate and vote there?
Haha, these comments are making Abbott sound more and more like some godfather-like figure…
middle man
I don’t think the MSM would mention who it was that made it more difficult for kids to exercise their right to vote. No up side for Labor.
About time we got over this factional bosses BS. Either vote Labor or don’t. You know the score.
Allan go to:
http://www.aec.gov.au
and you can check online.
Tell me who you’ll be voting for, and I’ll tell you what to do, Allan.
If you call your local MHR’s office they will tell you if you are on the roll for that Division.
Cuppa
Just received a letter in reply to an email of complaint.
It reads on for three pages. I think it would be worthwhile for bludgers who feel that the bias is blatant to make complaints to the ABC, the editors of newspapers & government departments.
Allan, Which candidate needs your vote the most? That’s where I’d be voting.
Yeah, she should’ve delayed it until the same day as the NSW state election! Only then will she be able to have the support to win an election.
When will Labor ever learn?
3865
Allan just go to the AEC website and you can check online.
It is an old Sicilian custom to call the Abbott Don, Pebbles.
Psephos,
I’ve heard they will announce the election date and issue the writs in a few days later to allow people the opportunity to fix their enrolment.
Our last 21 August election:
http://newspapers.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/page/624441
Middle man — I have a few years on you and I cannot see anything tempting either.
Am pleased to see Possum has updated his sidebar seat prediction after the recent spate of polls. Labor is back gaining seats in the quarterly — which pleases me no end. Not for the obvious reason. But a loss of seats for the coalition will likely mean that Abbott NEVER gets his hands on the reins of govt. — a think that has given me nightmares.
To know a self-serving, self-interested, unchristian, reactionary misogynist does not hold the top chair will let me sleep content at night!
GG, it seems to be the case that for a 21 August election the writs must be issued on Monday, so if the announcement is made tomorrow, voters would only have until CoB Monday to enrol. They would have to do it in person at an AEC office, and they’d have to have photo ID to do it.
However, GG, since you have stated here that I am a liar, you won’t believe any of that. So check it for yourself.
Is that right that the Colalition has booked the Nauru detention centre for their shadow ministry for the duration of the election campaign?
Psephos,
Yes but Gillard could say the election will be on 28th and ask the GG to issue the writs on 26th of July giving everyone the time they need.
Brothers, can we not extend the hand of forgiveness to each other while we prepare to slaughter our enemies?
Psephos,
I thought you were part of the don’t look back crowd re the argy bargy of politics.
A redux of 1943 would be nice. A 49 seat landslide government. Which, adjusted for inflation, would total about 108 seats in the 2010 House of Reps!
Fulvio,
Do you mean the Greens?
Just had a laugh listening to 612 ABC radio, the work experience guy just played Tone talking about Rudd’s assassination and Kelly Higgins-Devine said “wot Kevin Rudd’s dead”.
Not necessarily. Electorate offices are often a few months behind. Best to check with the AEC.
Them too.
The Libs have factions, and so they have factional bosses. They just don’t wear hats. But we know who they are.
He uses such violent language, and the worst part is about Abbott’s violent language, is it isn’t the typical alpha male “rough and tough” language, but rather the language of a cold killer. Gives me the creeps.
there was one like that here on the letters to the editor page had to cover it before i could read the senders letter
The Greens are like a pie floater, GG – all mushy peas and nothing of substance.
Yep. Game’s on. Philosophical debates can wait until after the election. The immediate future needs our attention now!
To arms!
Anybody else sick and tired of Abbott’s crocodile tears over the ‘assassination’ of Rudd?
Abbott and co. were all too gutless to do it to Howard back in ’07.
Has Bob Brown demanded to be included in the debates yet?
Fulvio,
Agree, they have risen without trace.
PVO just called out the Liberal hack from the Menzies foundation for sprouting out all of the Lib set lines.
Exactly Pebbles.
Agression, aggression, aggression.
If we were back in history, he’d be the Grand Inquisitor!
I don’t regard being called a liar as part of the normal argy bargy of politics, and particular not when it comes from a fellow Labor supporter.
If he gets in then no doubt Warren Truss will say he should get on too!
Psephos,
And you’ve been involved in ALP politics for how long?
TSOP
Because those young people are likely to be tech savvy, who uses the internet a lot, whose single issue for this election would be the internet filter, acting as a big brother on them?
Psephos
Posted Friday, July 16, 2010 at 3:57 pm | Permalink
August 21 is extremely tempting for Labor because it’s the anniversary of Labor’s greatest ever federal election win, in 1943 …Also Landeryou is generally very well informed on Labor matters. But issuing the writs on Monday would mean quite A LOT of people failing to enrol in time.
bet ya because of that it will be 28th
My say
Posted Friday, July 16, 2010 at 3:57 pm | Permalink
“Ron i thought from what i said you would realise i am agreeing with you,”
sorry , i mis read what yu said there My Say , and a smiley from me as forgot how to do thems
I think a few people here owe PVO an apology. He’s clearly not a Liberal stooge.
jaundiced view @ 3703
You are putting the cart before the horse – does the argument about ‘implications’ have any merit independent of the media’s obsessive focus on the trivia?
In my estimation it does not, and that is the crux of the issue – is there any intrinsic value in a ‘debate’ about any matter canvassed in the media that they regard as important just because it has been raised? Does the mere publishing of a banner headline in a newspaper constitute a substantive debate in the public arena about that issue, obsessively feeding on itself until it is the entire focus? Is the size of the headline the measure of the importance of the issue?
Clearly in your view it is the fact of the media’s entire energies being bent towards an, in this case, essentially manufactured narrative that counts, not whether the story itself has any internal logic, or value.
It is the ends justifying the means, and is entirely worthless as an exercise in public debate on the issues of value or moment.
You’d make an excellent journalist ….
Maybe Brown could debate Truss. I’d watch that.
Morgan? Morgan? Bueller?
I enjoyed your Newsradio interview William. Although when you agreed that QLD could cost Labor a few seats, would havelike to hear you say that Labor could also win some there (such as Ryan, Herbert), to negate some of the losses
PVO seems to have matured in recent months and is turning out to be reasonably balanced and incisive.
Hey Glen.
Maybe a cage match, Julia, Tone, Bob and Warren. Last one standing wins the debate?
Maybe Fielding too? Perhaps the leader of the Socialist Alliance? Every independent running?
Don’t worry Green supporters, I am just being facetious!
The trouble is that the OO stogges will claim the right to control the exit gate.
i’d like to see Laurie Oakes in sumo jocks enter as a late surprise!
stogges = stooges
kakaru
But wait! Didn’t the Rabbott tell of the call he received from his illustrious father Howard congratulating him on Rudd’s scalp.
Mmmmmm…………………………………..
Julia v Julie
Tony v Wayne
Fair is Fair
Some one else in the Liberal Party, other than Bishop, must have got up PVO’s nose.
Something doesn’t compute with me.
And Shanna would like to think he was Wallaby Bob McMaster. (T
Which will probably push them to the Greens. Whilst only anecdotal, the young adults I know (including my youngest brother) are not happy about the filter but sure as hell aren’t voting/preferencing Abbott.
Glen
I will resist the obvious sumo joke in a sense of fair play.
BK!!! What a blast from the past!!!! I grew up in Mudgeeraba where the local pub was known as Wallaby Bob’s after the great man. heaps of wrestling photo’s on the wall.
COme on rua, give it to us!
Re PVO:
Houston, I have contacts now.
Yes
Unless it is a match between Joe Hockey and Dick Adams
middle man
I knew someone would get a laugh out of that one.
Tone is behaving just like the perennial loser of the time, Brocker Cortez.
jenauthor
All this about the “aggressive” Abbott
Umm Rudd swore like a sailor and Latham punches cabbies
Abbott is the perfect gentlement next to those 2
Labor whips are off limits.
Maybe a mixed doubles match?
Actually, it is quite historic that the leadership teams of the ALP, the Liberals and the Greens are all a male/female mix.
A long time. I’ve never been called a liar by anyone in the ALP.
Fulvio
I don’t know what PVO has said, would someone like to fill me in???
Perhaps PVO, like Glen recognises that the Coalition do not deserve support.
Was just about to post that AEC link to Allan Moyes,Ruawake.I checked mine there other day.
all male/female mix…. whatch you sayin’ bout Julia and Wayne???
How likely is it that Labor will win Ryan? Not very I’d imagine.
PVO is giving it to Libs re AS issue and made a sarcastic reference being at the Sydney Harbour, and seeing boats made him afraid there was an invasion, but fortunately they were only tourists. False alarm! quite funny really. The Libs spokesman was not amused.
One has an outie and one has an innie?
The more I see of PVO the more I warm to him. He is slaughtering the appatarchic from the Menzies Foundation.
Middle man
Julia is the male and Wayne is his biatch
dovif
Mmmm……Rudd swore! Boo hoo! Surprise, surprise. Many Aussies do.
Did he do it in public? No!
But the Rabbott sure did when he made derogatory remarks to Roxon & about Gillard.
I think Abbott’s demeaning comments about & to Banton demonstrated the callousness of the man.
yeah i dont mind PVO.
HaHaHa Dovif – you’re kidding, right?
Give PVO the seat of Curtin once that seat warmer Julie Bishop retires.
Psephos,
There are so many rejoinders that it would put your nose out of joint for many years. So, I will exercise self restraint on this occaission. My best suggestion is you buy yourself a beer on me and get over yourself.
middle man
Isn’t it funny re the wrestling. Linda McMahon is having a tilt at preselection for US Senate (yes – Republican).
of course I am jealous of his good looks and bludge of a job.
I think Labor has some chance of winning both Ryan and Bowman. Herbert wouldn’t count as a Labor gain because it’s technically a Labor seat on the new boundaries. I think if Labor’s vote has dropped in Qld, it’s in the regions rather than in Brisbane. That puts Herbert, Leichhardt, Dawson and Flynn at risk, but it doesn’t mean that Labor can’t make gains in Brisbane at the same time.
Not likely, but Johnson will split the LNP vote. Depends if he intends to pour more crud on the LNP and preferences become toxic between the two.
Any news on Morgan?
Abbott swore at the Health Minister didn’t he?
BK, i must say i’m not into wrestling, ancient or modern. my memories of Wallaby Bob extend to riding my pushbike down to the pub to see Dad to ask what’s for dinner, and what time he’d be serving it… and having a look at all the photo’s. and then my mum was the housekeeper for the pub’s live in manager who had four daughters living there. so we used to hangout with the girls after hours (usually in the morning) and playing the video games for free and drinking heaps of free lemonade. ah …. the old days….
GG, I’m sorry that you think it’s acceptable to make false allegations against people (with no evidence), then tell them to get over themselves when they object. This reinforces my views about the hypocrisy of most self-proclaimed Christians I must say.
seriously i have already had one
For Connecticut – a state renown for its wrestling fans
Man, I haven’t been to fivethirtyeight for a while. I wonder how the polling is looking (after the Australian election, Pebbles! Don’t get distracted!)
so there is no morgan did they cancel it
Richard Ackland summarises the refugee mess very well today. For example:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/refugees-rights-left-stranded-in-sea-of-fear-20100715-10cky.html
On Contrarians
Liberal hack quote “180 people have died trying to make the journey to Australia”
Observer quote (me) “Pity pollies don’t get so wound up about the 1000s who die on the roads each year, for instance.”
It is all a matter of perspective and focus. Nameless faceless numbers don’t affect our sensibilities … but constant media focus on a few gives people a sense of empathy.
Have a look at the pictures of the rivals on the Gillard vs Abbott graphic on the OO’s politics page.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics
Gillard has no eyes!
No bias there!
cheers,
MD
No, he just wasn’t speaking “gospel” English at the time…
O thank you fro the bit from that Argus a friend of mine who does a lot of family history has mentioned we may have to pay for this type of record soon
O thank you fro the bit from that Argus a friend of mine who does a lot of family history has mentioned we may have to pay for this type of record soon
Nasty expert. Whats wrong with HBB?
While road tolls are not my specialty, I think the mortality rate may be slightly lower than that.
I dunno about other places, but in SA road deaths are treated by politicians and other authorities as losses of human lives, not just statistics
My Say, I think you are flitting between your favourite sites rather too quickly …
Spot on, Mad Dog.
nothing like a little geneology on a friday arvo
Adam
i bring peaceful chaos here where there is order , but bygones gone , history cann’t be changed whatever it is And there’s not many Roman spartans here to fight th reel infidel enemys of Labor here of Liberals and Greens , and Amigo GG I stand 100% with him against thems
I’m curious of why a constitutional expert’s opinion actually matters here. Leader debates have nothing to do with the constitution. They’re media exercises.
Arguing from authority I think.
(Not saying Bob should be in the debate by the way)
Safer cars or better roads?
What a stupid comment. State governments spend many millions on traffic police and road safety campaigns, and have greatly reduced the road toll over the past 30 years, despite the doubling in the number of cars over that time.
The fact is that coming to Australia by boat is extremely dangerous, and “refugee advocates” who encourage and assist people to do it are partly responsible for the deaths that occur.
My Say
did yu see my written smiley to you that i mis read your post that was actualy agreeing with me & i mucked up?
TSOP
The expert was basically saying Bob Brown had as much chance of becoming PM as HBB so he should not be included in a leaders debate because he cannot be PM.
who is PVO
yes ron thats o,k i happy little Vegemite and thanks for the tips some months ago about the hearing problem and the divise on the tv works very well.
trying out new aids soon, reading stuff here is really the only way i get my news.
As dear oh cannot be expected to have the sound on 43mmm
Ron, put : and ) together and you get a smiley appearing after you post. Just leave a space between the end of the sentence and the symbols.
@ Pebbles
You get my drift though. They can lament such death for the refugees, but road deaths are merely collateral damage (and I was just using it as an example).
It’s the perspective and focus that is skewed.
The focus is on the few hundred from boats and the catch-cry is: ‘our borders are being breached!’ — which is utter nonsense, of course.
so a liberal is worried about eh deaths re refugees and reaching aus well surley timor is the answer and what about the sievx
Thanks Rua, Psephos and Benji.
Fulvio, I’ll be voting Labor – does that help?
Tom – I’ve moved from a blue-ribbon Liberal seat where my vote counted for precious little (McPherson) to a Labor one (Richmond).
Tweet from Kev.
“Heading back to Oz tomorrow, looking forward to seeing Marcus then getting back to campaigning in the electorate.”
@ Pseph
You missed my point. it wasn’t the road deaths per se — it was the unbalanced focus.
It was seen (by the guy on the Contrarians) as criminal that 180 people had died in the past 10 years (I think he said), yet 80 times that many die on our roads.
I wasn’t belittling state govt attempts at lowering the toll. All I was saying is that using that yard-stick — as I said the focus, (and the funding perhaps?) is unbalanced.
The next poll that matters will be the one taken exclusively after Julia announces. Mondays Newspoll will be too early.
It is indeed criminal, both as a matter of law and of ethics, to encourage or assist people to try to come to Australia by boat, whether as a people smuggler or a refugee advocate.
Just been on the AEC website and have confirmation that I’m enrolled in Richmond. Thanks to all who replied to my question. Gosh, haven’t lived in a Labor electorate since Fraser in the ACT. Hope Richmond stays that way!
Well done william on your newsradio appearance. So great to hear a sober analysis of the stupid Oakes issue
#3980 ruawake – thats very interesting.
I have never doubted that Kevin Rudd would run again in Griffith.
Just looking at the seat of Richmond, it seems to have been an Anthony (as in Doug, Larry etc) fiefdom for most of its history! Are there any other little Anthonys who might want to take over? Heaven forfend.
I agree Pseph — even one life is criminal — all I am saying is the focus is skewed!!!!
thanks Fulvio
and )
must hav an old black & white keybord
No, not “and”. Just the colon and the bracket together, ron
Well, I don’t agree. The road toll results from millions of decisions made by millions of drivers, decisions which governments can influence to some extent but not control. So long as we have cars, we will have a road toll. The deaths of people coming to Australia by boat by contrast, result directly from the actions of a very small number of people, the people smugglers and those who encourage and assist them, all of whom know that what they are doing is putting people’s lives at risk.
In Tasmania there was a case of the ALP and Liberal Leaders refusing to debate the with the Greens leader and the ABC refused to organise and broadcast a two leader debate so there was no televised debate. I think this was 2006. All the Greens need to fix this is a leader in the House of Reps. Adam Bandt for Melbourne!
Lib red hering on road deaths vs boat peoples deaths
people do not intent go out to kill others on roads , but bleeting hart Refugee advocating know they suport poor desparate people risking there lives on dangerous high seas with very high chanse they’ll drown…and they do !!! there such lack of care for boat peoples could not be more hypocriticol
thanks Fulvio
here we goes , with some optimisms
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/16/2956099.htm?section=justin
I bet the ABC online had a laugh about this but the issue is why did the thing get stuffed up in the past?
ABC
Australian
Ho hum.
I am not a Lib Ron — am very staunchly progressive (read Labor — Greens are unrealistic in their opinions).
Perhaps I used the wrong example with the road toll — but ALL I was getting at is people dismiss something like the road toll as ‘a fact of life’.
The focus on boats, whether dangerous, criminal or anything else — is greater than other aspects of life of equal or greater importance in terms of loss of life
Is it clear what I am trying to say now?
William so wish they had asked you about the Abbott phone call thing. If we needed any further evidence of the MSM’s soft ride of Abbott, the burying of this story is it. Story on ABC radio about Abbott in Qld with no mention of the issue. Mmm
rua
Boobies were called boobies because hungry sailors could just walk up to them, club them and then eat them.
Boobies were not used to people, had no fear of them, and would not fly away when approached.
3992
A significant part of the reduction in the road toll has been the improvement in medicine and medicine infrastructure. Serious injuries are a serious problem and far more numerous and costly (I am not saying that more people should die but that more needs to be done to combat serious injury). Measures to help that are more Copenhagen bike lanes (so the bikes are protected from cars), banning cars from large shopping strips, improved public transport and many others.
Just what did Abbott mean by, if there is a legal problem, we will fix it. Sounds awfully corrupt. And to think Rudd got roasted just for being at a function with Brian Burke
I am sure the shop owners would just love that.
Psephos,
I well know that I’m a hypocrite and luckily, as a Christian, I have confession and God’s Grace to get me through life.
How do you handle your own hypocrisy and cant?
You are clearly seeking an apology. However, I don’t feel that I have written anything particularly damning to warrant your reaction and certainly to apologise would be an empty gesture, as I would not be sincere.
I said what I said within a rather clever (in my opinion) throwaway comment on this blog. You have focussed on one word and missed my genius. Such is life!
I’m “moving forward” as they say in the current political vernacular. I hope you can join me there.
“My people will speak to their people”. The rest I leave to your imagination, Andrew
Going by numerous inscriptions on the gravestones in country cemeteries, horses were bloody dangerous. But I suppose that was before seat belts.
I can’t tell you how annoying it is to see this…democracy thing that the radicals are parading affect my portfolio value! Hmmph!
Abbott on Ten News
Riding under a tree while wearing a hat was often fatal.
Andrew
Sounds like that other little legal thing he lied about to the ABC.
4003
Adequate public transport would need to be provided and there would be more footpath so many of the traders would have more space to trade (cafes etc). Only the big ones with enough of their own pulling power, local density and good PT could be done in the near future.
stability and confidence? I’d say more like autocracy and arrogance.
jenauthor
Posted Friday, July 16, 2010 at 5:40 pm | Permalink
“I am not a Lib Ron — am very staunchly progressive (read Labor — Greens are unrealistic in their opinions)……Is it clear what I am trying to say now? ”
jenauthor , I seem to be always in norty trouble with Ladys here , but I do love ladys actualy But i understand what you now saying , and thanks to my mate Fulvio I can throw a hart to you a la
People quickly forgot that Abbott became Opposition leader by just one solitary vote.
Thanks Ron — back at ya!
I suspect I’d have disappointed you if they had. My interpretation of Abbott’s comment is that it was Johnson himself who would get “fixed” if there was a legal problem, hence the reassuring follow-up that “I had no reason to think there was”. I certainly think reporters should be badgering him for an explanation, but the take-away from it – that Abbott’s wishes were ignored by the LNP – is pretty minor in the world-historic scheme of things.
3907
Bigship
Imagine if he/she was a court reporter, he/she wasn’t at the scene of the crime but he/she has managed to print about 200 posts and 40,000 words of concrete evidence nailing the protagonist/s with the evidence being only 15 words of “hear say”.
Yep, this democracy shit has got to stop. Every time there’s an election, it adds uncertainty because we don’t know who the winner will be. Every time!!! We should take a leaf out of China’s book.
4014
And it was after the resignations and before the election of the replacements in Bradfield and Higgins. Had it been either side of those events things might be quite different.
If God has forgiven you for calling me a liar, that’s very nice for you. I’m glad you cleared it up with him.
Not having your evade-responsibility-through-divine-forgiveness card, I try to avoid making baseless allegations against people in the first place. If I find I have done so, I apologise to them, not to my imaginary friend.
The “news” at the moment is like the run up to the olympic games. Dozens of reporters waiting to go, looking for stories, makin stuf up, blowing things up.
Let the games begin – its all fluff. They will soon be reporting on the real thing.
4020
I am on Psephos`s side.
GG
“I said what I said within a rather clever (in my opinion) throwaway comment on this blog. You have focussed on one word and missed my genius.”
well GG , I’ve hav never missed th fact you a fair dinkum Labor suporter who tells it as it is , and a genius with words especialy one liners against Greens compared to most bloggers You quite selctive with dictionarys dustbin of 000′s of words whereas I just select by random
Watch out he may turn apostrophe nark.
New thread.