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Federal Election 2010

Aug 8, 2010

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UPDATE Delightfully, Galaxy has now come good with an identical set of primary vote figures to Newspoll. They have nonetheless come to a 51-49 two-party split rather than the 52-48 from Newspoll, which can only have resulted from their calculation landing a fraction either side of 51.5-48.5. The 1700 sample from Newspoll and the 800 (I presume) sample from Galaxy can be combined to achieve a super-sample of 2500 and an unusually low margin of error of 2 per cent. Galaxy also finds “only 43 per cent of voters believe he is up to the top job and 48 per cent have major reservations”, suggesting Labor’s late campaign attack ads might find a receptive audience.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll gives Labor a morale-boosting 52-48 two-party lead from primary votes of 38 per cent for Labor, 42 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard is up a point on both approval and disapproval, to 42 per cent and 40 per cent, while Tony Abbott has gone backwards: approval down three to 41 per cent, disapproval up three to 41-49. Preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, Gillard and Abbott both down one to 49 per cent and 34 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full Newspoll report here. A question of strength of voting intention finds no distinction between the two parties, contrary to earlier polls which found the Coalition vote slightly firmer. Labor’s lead as party expected to win has narrowed over a week from 56-23 to 50-26.

UPDATE 2: The Canberra Times reports a survey conducted for the Greens credited to YourSource (the panel used by Essential Research) has the Senate vote in the Australian Capital Territory at 36 per cent for Labor (down 5 per cent on the election), 30 per cent for the Coalition (down 4 per cent) and 26 per cent for the Greens (up 4.5 per cent). If accurate, the Greens would probably just fall short of taking the second seat from Liberal Senator Gary Humphries.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1115 comments

1,115 thoughts on “Newspoll: 52-48, Galaxy: 51-49 – to Labor

  1. Gusface

    put down your glasses folks

    now can we reach 100?

  2. Glen

    The ghost never lies.

  3. Grog

    The Ghost Who Votes has got to be the best inside man on the polls ever – Neilsen, Newspoll, doesn’t matter. To him, I tips my caps.

  4. Traveller

    The minute Latham steps into the election frame, things begin to change. Bring on the 21st!!!!!!

  5. Glen

    [To him, I tips my caps.]

    As do we all.

  6. Greensborough Growler

    That Neilsen had to be a dodgy. A change of 6% in a week did not make sense. A pity that the MSM trying to perpetuate a theme of a Government on the cusp of losing doesn’t have the wit to pass on believing their own BS.

  7. ltep

    Thanks to the Ghost.

  8. leftwingpinko

    Back in the game. Tories will need a better primary than 42 if they want to win. And this after another pretty crappy week for the ALP.

  9. Yo ho ho

    Easily the best news for the ALP since the post-announcement round of polls.

    The real question now is can they hold it? It took from Tuesday through to Friday of solid ALP days to get this result. I can’t decide if the weekend was terrible or good (and the media just sucked…which they really did on saturday).

  10. Sertse

    Ghost who votes must be leaker! On good days he leaks the polls on bad days he leaks gossip…

    Anyway, give cause for hope. The primary beginning with a 4 would make things more solid though

  11. Diogenes

    How the hell does the GhostWhoVotes do it? I can see how he could get one poll but every poll. It’s become one of the phenomenons of the campaign.

  12. DaveOz

    Great blog this. Was two pages behind, then suddenly four pages behind. Decided this is the place to be for the run-up to election.

    I think the bleak-leak period is behind us and the polls will start to rebound, so, chin up everyone. I think the current ‘election simulation’ on Crikey is pretty much how it will play out, with just a 3% swing in Qld, and the rest pretty stable. Libs realise if Julia wins, she’ll be in for two terms for sure.

    One of the best pieces of info was the link to the Peter van Onselen article about the ‘faceless men’ of the coalition who allowed Tone to ’slide’ into Liberal leadership. Must admit, that aligned with my take of the happenings at that time. One of them, Abetz, has a favourite idea of turning us into a U.S. style electoral system of non-compulsory voting. Our system alllows the nutters to offset each other, whereas over the there, it’s only the political nutters who vote, and look what’s happened.

    Also, there’s all this talk of Labor disunity but even Kevin Rudd didn’t vote for himself in the leadership spill. Compare that to the Liberal bloodbath, where, as someone noted, Malcolm was first tortured (by Bernadi, mostly), then knifed.

    See http://www.perthnow.com.au/opinion/van-onselen-working-the-dark-arts-of-politics/story-e6frg41u-1225902520571

  13. DaveM

    The Java cartoon on the top of the OO online has 52-48 from 38/42/13/7 primaries.
    Better PM is 49-34 Gillard
    Gillard satisfaction 43/41
    Abbott 41/49

    Not sure if thats all up to date?

  14. cud chewer

    I’m unsurprised.

    Curious to see what Essential does next.

  15. steve

    It has taken a long time to undo some of the damage from leaks that were falsely pinned on Rudd. If the Tories had won the election on the basis of that it would have been a major scandal.

  16. Glen

    Also I will let Laborities know that I could have been crowing all this week and last and shoving it all in your faces. I didnt do that since it is unparliamentary.

    Hmmm guess they polled Tasmania, Victoria and SA 🙂 jj you guys 🙂

  17. evan14

    Maybe this is due to the following?
    1. Rudd’s graceful return, and his vow to campaign hard for Julia?
    2. Abbott’s cockiness & arrogance, and the media’s presumption that the election result had already been decided?
    3. Latham

  18. jenauthor

    [Easily the best news for the ALP since the post-announcement round of polls. ]

    Methinks Rudd QLD influence has flowed through — he is back in the fold there, so Labor is maybe not forgiven, but Qlders might be stopping their ‘protest’

  19. mexicanbeemer

    Both sides can be happy with these numbers.

    The Liberals: Because they are three points in front

    The ALP: The primary vote has improved a little.

    The Greens: I reckon will be happy with these numbers, they lookm like scoring there biggest single election swing to them if these numbers come out on the 21th

    The poll confirms my view that the ALP are still ahead overall.

  20. BigBob

    Well, it looks like the Wermacht has been halted at the gates of Moscow..

    Now to bleed them dry over this week and finish them off in the last.

    I now feel Abbott is toast – if the other polls follow, he can’t play small target anymore.

    Gillard accepting another debate and Abbott running was the turning point.

    Real Action Man ran when challenged.

    Australian voters don’t like to smell cowardice on their leaders.

  21. Graeme Orr

    Pell follows the how-to-vote-cardinal

  22. Diogenes

    Bob Brown strikes back at Pell.

    [AUSTRALIA’S Catholic leader Cardinal George Pell has taken up the rhetoric of the extreme right and his views do not represent mainstream Christian thinking, Greens leader Bob Brown says.

    Senator Brown says Australian Greens’ policies are much closer to mainstream Christian ideals than the Sydney Archbishop’s ideas.]

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/breaking-news/greens-policies-more-christian-than-cardinal-geogre-pell-says-bob-brown/story-e6frea73-1225902761740

  23. evan14

    Mark Riley tonight on Channel 7 called Abbott “shifty” – will other sections of the media start casting a more critical eye on Phoney? 😉

  24. GhostWhoVotes

    14 by DaveM,

    That information is accurate.

  25. Traveller

    Join me in a celebratory song …

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BC49dJSo5k

    From The Fundamentalist Adventures Of Tony Abbott – The Musical.

  26. Benji

    I love that ghost, made my night much more enjoyable

  27. Mithrandir

    ALP primary of 39 isn’t that great. Then again the Coalition on 42 isn’t great for them either. Must wait for more polls to see if Labor is really improving.

  28. Gusface

    BigBob

    [Real Action Man ran when challenged.

    Australian voters don’t like to smell cowardice on their leaders.]

    so true,when i told some blokes earlier today they couldnt believe it that he wouldnt debate a girl

    Abbott is too smart by half

  29. evan14

    The exhumation of John Howard wouldn’t have done Abbott any favours either. 😀

  30. BK

    Now the unhinged one is not in front any more will he debate Julia?
    I doubt it because he is a front-running political bully and clown.

  31. It's Time

    According to GHostwhovotes

    Newspoll 52-48 ALP

    Interesting. What will be Shanna selective pearl of wisdom from this to justify a coalition victory?

  32. Paul_J

    Wow so we will be waiting for the headlines tomorrow in the MSM announcing crushing blow to Abbott ?

    Or will the leaker surface again

    cheers

  33. Centre

    PPM: 49 Julia / 34 Abbott

    Now they’re nice numbers 😉

  34. James J

    18: or more likely just random statistical noise within the margin of error.

  35. the spectator

    But Labor are in real trouble according to Phoney

  36. jenauthor

    Can’t wait to see all the media rats jumping off the sinking ship in the next week if it starts looking like a fait accompli. Another good Labor poll and they’ll be deserting in droves.

    What’s the bet Julia will become the best thing since sliced bread.

  37. Benji

    How will Shamaham spin it? Libs still in front on primary?

  38. Glen

    Anything less than 40 for the ALP cant be seen as ‘good’

    Anything less than 44% for the Tories cannot be seen as ‘good’

    Labor need 41/2
    Tories need 44/5

    As plain and simple as that.

  39. Psephos

    52 is a pretty good result in all the circs – basically same as 2007, so if we are down in Qld and NSW then we must be up elsewhere.

  40. evan14

    Joe, Virginia and the other folks at ABC NEWS 24 won’t be happy campers tomorrow. 🙂

  41. itsthevibe

    A most pleasant shock for me, I must admit. HOWEVER… I’m only going to tell you guys this once:

    DON’T

    GET

    ARROGANT

    !!!!!

    Just as in a footy match, we need to keep playing as if we’re 100 points down! 🙂

  42. leftwingpinko

    ALP primary of 39 isn’t that great. Then again the Coalition on 42 isn’t great for them either. Must wait for more polls to see if Labor is really improving.

    I think the Primary is actually 38. Its not great but its a hell of a lot better than what Nielsen have been reporting. I’ll wager a lot of voters are parking their votes with the Grees right now…

  43. Scarpat

    [Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor]

    So what’s new? Bluey has Julia 23 points, Tony 21 points which comes out as 52% to 48% rounded.

  44. victoria

    Psephos.

    I keep saying Labor will do well here in Victoria.

  45. mexicanbeemer

    Yes Psephos in Victoria and SA.

    Also it is possible that ahs the campaign has moved forward the Liberals have soften in Queensland as shown in the Dawson poll

  46. cud chewer

    @38, probably

  47. Diogenes

    itsthevibe

    [DON’T

    GET

    ARROGANT

    !!!!!]

    Given that Abbott’s arrogance might be a reason for this, that is excellent advice.

  48. Ron

    The Finnigans
    Posted Sunday, August 8, 2010 at 9:43 pm | Permalink

    “Amigo Ronnie, i entrusted Jules with you while i am away.what happened? ”

    she been doing fine under pressure of lie Leeks and PBers nervous nellies here in this last wk so sad they labor PBers peoples were

    I never wavers Julia would bring home bacon based on reasons & win
    Neither did Franky and a couple on our Ship True believers stood firm

    Labor to win Now oat 10.45 pm 21/8 Julia will make victory sppech

  49. Centre

    Evan, I think Rudd and Latham are having blinders so far.

    Go get ’em Ruddie!