tip off

Nielsen: 53-47 to Labor; Galaxy western Sydney poll

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Nielsen has Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 40 per cent for Labor, 41 per cent for the Coalition and 12 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 49-41 to 52-38 since the poll of last week, which had the Coalition leading 51-49, and she has traded two points of disapproval (now 36 per cent) for approval (54 per cent). Tony Abbott has returned to net negative personal ratings, with his approval down five to 45 per cent and disapproval up fifve to 48 per cent.

UPDATE: Galaxy has published a poll of 800 respondents in Hughes, Lindsay, Macarthur and Greenway, the result suggesting Lindsay and Greenway would stay with Labor. Conducted on August 11 and 12, it shows Labor’s primary vote down 8 per cent to 37 per cent and the Coalition on 45 per cent, translating into a 3.9 per cent two-party swing: certainly enough to cost them Macquarie and Macarthur, but not Lindsay. Eighty-six per cent said Labor did not deserve to be re-elected, but 52 per cent said that they were better than the alternative. Forty-five per cent considered Gillard more impressive to 36 per cent for Mr Abbott; 42 per cent more trustworthy compared to 33 per cent. Forty-one per cent said they were now better off than they were three years ago, while 44 per cent said worse off.

UPDATE 2: Newspoll has targeted 17 marginal seats in NSW, Queensland and Victoria, with results that are enormously heartening for Labor: a manageable 1.3 per cent swing in NSW, a surviveable 3.4 per cent in Queensland and, remarkably, a 6.2 per cent swing in their favour in Victoria. More to follow.

539
  • 1
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:41 pm | Permalink

    Even with a 53-47 the Tories can still win if the swing is big enough in QLD and NSW

    Oh, no they can’t.

  • 2
    Sertse
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:41 pm | Permalink

    To clarify, this is the poll that is meant to be kept under wrap till Sunday cause they wanted it to?

    But the Ghostwholeaks in this infinite power found out?

  • 3
    Luckydave
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:42 pm | Permalink

    Queensland must not be as weak for the ALP as the commentariat have insisted.

  • 4
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:42 pm | Permalink

    This is good news, but I am in complete “election-is-not-over-we-are-in-the-final-week-no-hubris” mode. Here’s hoping this mode can be swapped for “what-were-we-all-worried-about-i-want-beers” mode at about 9.00pm in 8 days time.

  • 5
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:42 pm | Permalink

    Nielsen has released polls every other Friday night of the campaign, and I’m not aware that anyone expected different this time.

  • 6
    fredn
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:43 pm | Permalink

    [brisoz
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:13 pm | Permalink
    The Coalition -party must be desperate, they have invaded Whirlpool on the NBN issue cost:
    http://forums.whirlpool.net.au/forum-replies.cfm?t=1510649

    Don’t think thy will pick up too many votes there.

  • 7
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:43 pm | Permalink

    William

    some here earlier were being disingeneous

    as they usually are

    :(

  • 8
    cud chewer
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:44 pm | Permalink

    Leftwingpinko, if the true national result is 53, there’s no way the libs can win, despite state trends, because a national vote of 53 and the assumption of a shabby vote in qld/nsw translate into really weirdly high votes in other states and unexpected gains there.

  • 9
    itsthevibe
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:44 pm | Permalink

    This is good news, but I am in complete “election-is-not-over-we-are-in-the-final-week-no-hubris” mode.

    Same here. Like I said the other night folks: “100 points behind”!

  • 10
    dave
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:45 pm | Permalink

    Oh, no they can’t.

    William, how much does this change your assessment given earlier today to News Radio ?

  • 11
    alias
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:45 pm | Permalink

    This coupled with the Daily Tele “Julia Gillard’s popularity alone will carry Labor to victory” based on Galaxy tomorrow could create a slightly-too-early complacency factor.

  • 12
    Mick Wilkinson
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:45 pm | Permalink

    Hey Pinko you insipid teatowel.

    Yeah, I agree. I tried to make the point to Mike Wilkinson last night that the individual seat markets at this point in the 2007 had Howard winning and they only moved towards Rudd at the death.

    He then sprayed a heap of bile in my direction

    Hey pinky, in the very mortal words of Lord Keating, you are ‘all tip and no iceberg’ :)

    I asked for evidence, after I gave the most comprehensive evidence last night that the betting market (not my latent lusty desires for a coalition win) showed in seats a likelihood, at present of a hung parliament with a Coalition minority government the most likely outcome.

    You showed.. well just a vibe man, it’s the constitution, its Mabo, it’s just the vibe.. ;)

    Still waiting for the stats a week out from last election young man! What did the seats say before curiously turning to the ALP at the last minute???

    146 of the 150 seat predictions were right.

    Mike-who-is-apparently-not-right-in-any-real-sense:

    What you propose then is that all the punters in the market are clearly mad, stupid or possibly both (including all those punting on the ALP). If your reasoning made any sense at all there would not be a dollar on the market until the end.

    Actually the smart money is always in early, not late, in election betting. In the end the likely winner grows shorter as the bookie covers the tail, thus they have less risk but less reward.

    Seat betting is a wonder in that it is even legal in Australia. If only 900 people bet reasonably in one direction and vote the same way (here, you would be clearly mad/stupid if you didn’t), then the outcome has been manipulated. Your team wins and so do you.

    Contrarily, any polling on marginals sux. The MOE is higher relatively than a normal poll and such voters aren’t as engaged or committed to vote that way. That’s why seat betting is so different to any other markets in election wagers.

    As you can see, I talk complete tripe and make no sense at all, that is why I annoy Pinko..

    Oh BTW my bile was suggesting that he perhaps needed pictures to read the articles I posted in support, because he clearly didn’t understand them. Sorry you anachronistic Bolshevik.

  • 13
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:45 pm | Permalink

    well, its time to revise my prediction

    so from 99 we go to 100

    always good to be cautious

  • 14
    spur212
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:45 pm | Permalink

    Great news for the ALP but I think they’ll wait until they’ve got 76 seats on election day before they celebrate..

  • 15
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:45 pm | Permalink

    Well if we took the five point bias out of the Morgan poll we were left with a 52-48 and here we have a poll from Nelson is 53-47

    I think the Dawson poll last week shows the Liberals were under performing in Queensland and it is hard to see the Liberals turning this around unless the ALP fall apart in some massive way

  • 16
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:46 pm | Permalink

    Mike W

    why so sad still?

  • 17
    sean
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:46 pm | Permalink

    I’ll be pretty confident if we get past sunday without Latham having pulled something out of the hat.

  • 18
    Mick Wilkinson
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:46 pm | Permalink

    William

    Lovely to see you have dropped the non-partisan charade nowadays.

    Good on you ALP you must really be winning after all. Not close at all. Yeah, you have to admit the coalition is dead now.

  • 19
    Luckydave
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:47 pm | Permalink

    Dutton in Dickson must be a very worried camper. He clung on last time with a viable candidate in Longman (neighbouring seat), this time young Wyatt (Erp) ain’t doing him any favours. I suspect that Dickson could go Labor.

  • 20
    Centre
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:47 pm | Permalink

    Oh yeah, the betting does it again!

    The Betting: Numero Uno (1)

    The Polls: Numero (2)
    :D

    And Parra flogged the Broncos :D

    But the FTSE fell sharply a little while ago :(

  • 21
    Laocoon
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:47 pm | Permalink

    davem if you are lurking

    I had a look at that 30 year you posted earlier – I maxed-out the chart to the late 70s…has been such a strong, consistent bull market for so long – more so than equities

    No sign of any break-up. However, I wonder except for maybe a deflationary fall later this year/’11, whether we may be near some long term turning point in rates/inflation

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ETYX&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

  • 22
    imacca
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:48 pm | Permalink

    53/47 would be a GREAT result on the night. Its also a GREAT result now as it goes someway to confirming a trend, and it doesn’t look overcooked like the recent Morgan.

    Much happiness and thanks to GhostWhoVotes.

  • 23
    leftwingpinko
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:48 pm | Permalink

    Hey pinky, in the very mortal words of Lord Keating, you are ‘all tip and no iceberg’ :)

    I asked for evidence, after I gave the most comprehensive evidence last night that the betting market (not my latent lusty desires for a coalition win) showed in seats a likelihood, at present of a hung parliament with a Coalition minority government the most likely outcome.

    You showed.. well just a vibe man, it’s the constitution, its Mabo, it’s just the vibe.. ;)

    Still waiting for the stats a week out from last election young man! What did the seats say before curiously turning to the ALP at the last minute???

    146 of the 150 seat predictions were right.

    Mike-who-is-apparently-not-right-in-any-real-sense:

    What you propose then is that all the punters in the market are clearly mad, stupid or possibly both (including all those punting on the ALP). If your reasoning made any sense at all there would not be a dollar on the market until the end.

    Actually the smart money is always in early, not late, in election betting. In the end the likely winner grows shorter as the bookie covers the tail, thus they have less risk but less reward.

    Seat betting is a wonder in that it is even legal in Australia. If only 900 people bet reasonably in one direction and vote the same way (here, you would be clearly mad/stupid if you didn’t), then the outcome has been manipulated. Your team wins and so do you.

    Contrarily, any polling on marginals sux. The MOE is higher relatively than a normal poll and such voters aren’t as engaged or committed to vote that way. That’s why seat betting is so different to any other markets in election wagers.

    As you can see, I talk complete tripe and make no sense at all, that is why I annoy Pinko..

    Oh BTW my bile was suggesting that he perhaps needed pictures to read the articles I posted in support, because he clearly didn’t understand them. Sorry you anachronistic Bolshevik.

    hmmmmm, shift at the nut factory must have finished.

  • 24
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:48 pm | Permalink

    There are 2 sides here – the side that suggests it’s too early for all of this positive news and it can only go backwards, or the side that suggests some of the people considering changing their vote from Labor because they were a bit ticked off will get back on the wagon if it looks like a winner.

  • 25
    fredn
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:49 pm | Permalink

    The sad thing is Labor’s mad right will feel vindicated. Oh well back to watching the fun in the Liberal party. 80+ to labor.

  • 26
    cud chewer
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:49 pm | Permalink

    Mick Wilkinson, you’ve fallen into a very obvious trap in thinking that the punters get it right weeks out. Just wait to see what they think of the latest Nielsen :)

    I’d feel sorry for you.. but.. honestly.. I can’t

  • 27
    alias
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:50 pm | Permalink

    When do the betting sites starting laying odds on the next Coalition opposition leader?

  • 28
    cud chewer
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:50 pm | Permalink

    fredn, I’d rather see the mad right in the Libs implode first. Once they’re gone, maybe with a more (small l) Liberal party the lefties in Labor might get a run.

  • 29
    itsthevibe
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:51 pm | Permalink

    This coupled with the Daily Tele “Julia Gillard’s popularity alone will carry Labor to victory” based on Galaxy tomorrow could create a slightly-too-early complacency factor.

    If Labor are dumb enough to repeat their Week 1 mistake of letting decent polls lull them into complacency, then they DESERVE to lose. So there!

  • 30
    Boerwar
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:52 pm | Permalink

    The trend is our friend.

  • 31
    John Reidy
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:52 pm | Permalink

    Loved blueys post today especially this

    Bluey is a bit sensitive that they might not take an octopus seriously, but hey, those suckers need all the help they can get.

    Suckers -> bluey -> octopus
    Is there anywhere on the net you can see the press conferences , I want to see the body language.
    Also someone (alp add hint hint) should do a montage of the last 10 seconds of every Abbott presser

  • 32
    brisoz
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:52 pm | Permalink

    Yes, Labor need to keep it’s foot down, on the peddle.

  • 33
    Mikeisright
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:53 pm | Permalink

    Mick.

    Thanks for being included!

    My point is that the seat by seat markets are far too early to rely on. There will be a rush of polls and “inside” info in the last week and more money will come for individual seats then compared to what has been wagered so far… your argument makes a lot of sense though in terms of the overall “who will win” market… which has shown a significant shortening towards labor on the back of the weight of money.. .so yes you are right… the markets do know….. but it is a massive assumption to make a call on the overall election based on aggregating very small individual seat markets until Saturday next week.

  • 34
    Mick Wilkinson
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:53 pm | Permalink

    Bruup Bruup, Bruup Bruup

    “Hello Joolya Dullard, Proime Minista spaking”

    “Knock it off Jules, it’s Mr Rabbit.”

    “Oh Hi Ton’. Neilsen 91:9. You suck. I win. Ppbpbpbpbpbpb!”
    “What.. oh, 53:47, that’s right, you don’t care about a bit of waste.. Well done Ranga!”
    “Yeah alright, 53:47. L-O-S-E-R!”
    “I love it when you talk down to me!”
    “Anyway, gotta go, Tim’s finishing a Croquembouche for dessert.. Oh, and Ton’?”
    “Yeah?”
    “SUFFER IN YA JOCKS!!!” HAHAHAHAHA!”
    “I wish I could. Might get rid ‘o these damn budgies!”

    Click.

  • 35
    ltep
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:53 pm | Permalink

    A great result for the ALP. Of course no one will be celebrating til Abbott concedes on election night.

  • 36
    John Reidy
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:53 pm | Permalink

    So what about the hung parliament, it was all over the ABC today, (oh that was this morning …)

  • 37
    Lord D
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:54 pm | Permalink

    Nice poll, hope Labor can end up CRUSHING the Libs 55-45 or more

  • 38
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:54 pm | Permalink

    William

    Lovely to see you have dropped the non-partisan charade nowadays.

    Good on you ALP you must really be winning after all. Not close at all. Yeah, you have to admit the coalition is dead now.

    I feel your pain Mick W

    The tears cant stop flowing Huh?

    have a bex and a good nap

    ;)

  • 39
    Boerwar
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:55 pm | Permalink

    I have noticed that there is a certain amnesia, both in PB and the MSM, about two things that killed Labor’s momentum in week 2 and in part of week 3: The leaks. The Rudd.

    These created the sort of turbulence that made it very, very difficult for Gillard.

    When Gillard gets clear air, she trashes Abbott.

  • 40
    pancho
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:56 pm | Permalink

    Poor Mick. Your commentary on betting markets, as far as it goes, is generally sound. The problem with it is that it is but one part of the equation. If the vote nationally is 52/48 (let alone 53/47) there is no way the Libs can win, no matter how you want to contort and find your way to the magic hung parliament number.

    For each marginal you think that the Libs will gain, there must be an equal swing against them elsewhere. Labor time and resources are going into marginals and winnables, so your methodology of awarding all these to the Libs is flawed. In no election does everything go the way you want, and I can assure you it ain’t gonna happen in this one. Recent history has shown that it is the ALP, not the Libs (and the incumbent) that overperforms in marginals.

    So hang onto that bone like a crazy dog. You’ve got a few more days till your fairytale disappears.

    And by the way, there’s nothing partisan about #1. It’s a statement of fact.

  • 41
    Econocrat
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:56 pm | Permalink

    Bruup Bruup, Bruup Bruup

    “Hello Joolya Dullard, Proime Minista spaking”

    “Knock it off Jules, it’s Mr Rabbit.”

    “Oh Hi Ton’. Neilsen 91:9. You suck. I win. Ppbpbpbpbpbpb!”
    “What.. oh, 53:47, that’s right, you don’t care about a bit of waste.. Well done Ranga!”
    “Yeah alright, 53:47. L-O-S-E-R!”
    “I love it when you talk down to me!”
    “Anyway, gotta go, Tim’s finishing a Croquembouche for dessert.. Oh, and Ton’?”
    “Yeah?”
    “SUFFER IN YA JOCKS!!!” HAHAHAHAHA!”
    “I wish I could. Might get rid ‘o these damn budgies!”

    Click.

    LOL.

    If only we had Max Gillies and Rubbery Figures for the modern age!

  • 42
    vivi63
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:56 pm | Permalink

    Gusface : kthx 4 tha lolz, I <3 lolz

  • 43
    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:56 pm | Permalink

    Re 2007 betting, I looked up some old posts on Simon Jackman’s blog and one of them said Labor went up to 78 seats (total # of seats in which favourite) on the Saturday before. That was on the Portlandbet market; I believe Portlandbet are now defunct. So presumably at this stage last time Labor was on 77. My tally for Centrebet today was 76 (Sportingbet has Labor favourite in two which Centrebet says they’re losing).

  • 44
    Boerwar
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:57 pm | Permalink

    John Reidy
    Bluey is tickled that you enjoyed the pun.

  • 45
    Mick Wilkinson
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:57 pm | Permalink

    Pinko

    hmmmmm, shift at the nut factory must have finished.

    Nah mate. Hate factories, too many smelly Union types with XYY Chromosomes.

    How are you going this fine evening, all those fine, naive socialist ideals keeping you happy?

  • 46
    cud chewer
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:57 pm | Permalink

    Please don’t discourage the Liberal voters from placing bets.. that contributes to my holiday fund :)

  • 47
    Peter of Marino
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:57 pm | Permalink

    I could not been happier ! I put this down to the Latham/ Oakes effect and the NBN :) Looking forward to mondays noozpoll..

  • 48
    pancho
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:58 pm | Permalink

    Actually, the whole – “it’s the individual betting markets from this particular agency!” argument is all a bit Shanahan circa 2007 for all its selectivity.

  • 49
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:58 pm | Permalink

    Gusface@38

    William

    Lovely to see you have dropped the non-partisan charade nowadays.

    Good on you ALP you must really be winning after all. Not close at all. Yeah, you have to admit the coalition is dead now.

    I feel your pain Mick W

    The tears cant stop flowing Huh?

    have a bex and a good nap

    Mick W

    Your theme Song:

     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TlLXDbhEXiE 

  • 50
    Laocoon
    Posted Friday, August 13, 2010 at 9:58 pm | Permalink

    GWV

    The #Nielsen poll was taken between Tuesday and Thursday

    Rooty Hill in the middle of all this…

Womens Agenda

loading...

Smart Company

loading...

StartupSmart

loading...

Property Observer

loading...