tip off

Nielsen JWS Research marginals mega-poll (and Galaxy and Morgan)

The super-sample poll published by Fairfax, covering 22,000 voters in 54 seats (about 400 each), turns out to have been conducted not by Nielsen, but an outfit called JWS Research whose automated phone polling on the weekend were widely noted at the time. The Sydney Morning Herald sells its managing director John Scales as “a renowned pollster” who was director of Morgan from 1992 to 1995, and research director at Crosby Textor from 2002 until earlier this year. However, its methodology is untried, at least in the Australian context: presumably pollsters go to the expense of hiring interviewers for a very good reason (UPDATE: Lukas in comments points to the assessment of legendary US polling analyst Nate Silver, that “there’s not really convincing evidence about whether IVR polls [robopolls] are inferior to regular ones”). Nonetheless, the general tenor of the results is in keeping with polling overall, give or take a few surprises. Taken together, the results point to 79 seats for Labor and 68 for the Coalition with three independents – curiously, the poll did not cover Melbourne.

Queensland. Labor to lose Brisbane, Bonner, Petrie, Leichhardt, Forde, Dawson, Flynn and Dickson, but hold Moreton, Longman and Herbert.

New South Wales. Labor to lose Lindsay, Bennelong, Macarthur and Robertson while gaining Paterson and Cowper; Labor to hold Greenway, Dobell, Page, Eden-Monaro, Gilmore and Macquarie.

Victoria. Labor to gain McEwen, La Trobe and Dunkley, but lose Corangamite.

Elsewhere. Labor to gain Boothby, lose Hasluck and Swan, and hold Solomon.

We also have Galaxy polling another 800 voters in four Queensland marginals – Bonner, Forde, Herbert and Longman – and found happier results for Labor than the Queensland sample from the weekend’s super-survey, with a swing of 3.5 per cent rather than 5.4 per cent. Morgan has also published small-sample polls from Bennelong (300) and La Trobe (200) conducted just this evening, which respectively have the Liberals leading 50.5-49.5 and Labor leading 53-47.

UPDATE: And now state-by-state breakdowns from the past two weeks of Newspoll, both of which had the national result at 52-48. The state two-party are results are 52-48 to Labor in New South Wales (a 1.7 per cent swing), 52-48 to the Coalition in Queensland (2.4 per cent swing), 55-45 to Labor in Victoria (0.7 per cent swing to Labor), 56-44 to Labor in South Australia (3.6 per cent swing to Labor) and 57-43 to the Coalition in Western Australia (3.7 per cent swing to the Coalition).

UPDATE 2: Recent state-level polling results in terms of Labor swing:

TOTAL NSW VIC Qld WA SA
JWS Research -1.1 -2.1 2.4 -5.3 -0.5 -1.6
Galaxy marginals -1.7 -3.1 1.6 -4.3 -2.1 0.0
Newspoll (2 week) -0.7 -1.7 0.7 -2.4 -3.7 3.6
Nielsen (2 week) -1.7 -2.7 3.0 -3.4 -2.7 0.6
Essential (2 week) -1.7 -5.7 0.7 -3.4 0.3 1.6
3759
  • 1
    ltep
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:39 pm | Permalink

    28,000 would suggest it’s an online panel thing.

  • 2
    madcyril
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:39 pm | Permalink

    28000!!! What the

  • 3
    Andrew
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:39 pm | Permalink

    How could they have polled so many? Is it cumulative?

  • 4
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:39 pm | Permalink

    Geez I couldn’t even beat the “new thread”… am gittin old.

  • 5
    madcyril
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:39 pm | Permalink

    Mega indeed!

  • 6
    middle man
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:40 pm | Permalink

    well well well…. cat. meet pigeons.

  • 7
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:40 pm | Permalink

    Till the 22nd what?

    HoR seat gain

    :)

  • 8
    Andrew
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:40 pm | Permalink

    I presume the seat count is a uniform swing, rather than seat by seat

  • 9
    madcyril
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:40 pm | Permalink

    Ghostwhovotes strikes again. Kit walker is he

  • 10
    El Nino
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:41 pm | Permalink

    Nick of McEwan or Melbourne or wherever. I live near McEwan. I work in Melbourne. And I think you are onto something. Keep up the good work.

  • 11
    Andrew
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:41 pm | Permalink

    If its a marginals poll, why the total seat count??

  • 12
    James J
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:41 pm | Permalink

    “Poll Marginal Seats in VIC: McEwen, La Trobe, Dunkley for ALP, Corangamite for LNP”

  • 13
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:41 pm | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes

    #Nielsen Poll Marginal Seats in VIC: McEwen, La Trobe, Dunkley for ALP, Corangamite for LNP #ausvotes less than a minute ago via web

  • 14
    madcyril
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:41 pm | Permalink

    .#Nielsen Poll Marginal Seats in VIC: McEwen, La Trobe, Dunkley for ALP, Corangamite for LNP #ausvotes

  • 15
    BK
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:41 pm | Permalink

    And just as I was about to type ‘where is the ghost when you need him?” . . . . .

  • 16
    Guy
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:41 pm | Permalink

    Will be very interested in specifics…

  • 17
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

    28,000? Rubbish. Was it an online poll?

    It was my immediate instinct that it might be an online panel type thing, as Nielsen did a few times in the last campaign. But we’ll see.

  • 18
    Socrates
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

    Obviously we’d all like to see which seats were polled. Still even if that is, say 30 seats, it is almost 1000 responses per seat, which is getting pretty solid.

  • 19
    To Speak of Pebbles
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

    28,000? That’s a state by-election! :o

  • 20
    Rocket Rocket
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

    Ghostwhovotes may nudge Bluey for the “three votes” in my Brownlow/Dally M Medal for greatest impact during PB coverage of election!

    - hope Bluey is asleep and doesn’t see this post!

  • 21
    ltep
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

    Interesting. Not sure Dunkley will fall and will be interested to see how the La Trobe Morgan goes.

  • 22
    Andrew
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

    wow, a + 2 for Victoria, I’ll take that

  • 23
    Dagget
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:43 pm | Permalink

    El Nino, I can beat that I live in McEwan and work in Melbourne!.

    Good to hear from somone green on the ground in Melb, that is an interesting contest.

  • 24
    Guy
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

    Talking about Corangamite on LL

  • 25
    To Speak of Pebbles
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

    If Dunkley fell, who would lead Glen’s Libs? :(

  • 26
    madcyril
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

    .#Nielsen Poll Marginal Seats in QLD: 8 seats to LNP #ausvotes

  • 27
    BK
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

    If this poll is accurate and it pans out that way on Saturday Australia will have its own Mason-Dixon line.

  • 28
    James J
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes
    #Nielsen Poll Marginal Seats in QLD: 8 seats to LNP #ausvotes
    half a minute ago via web

  • 29
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes

    #Nielsen Poll Marginal Seats in QLD: 8 seats to LNP #ausvotes half a minute ago via web

  • 30
    madcyril
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

    Nielsen Poll Marginal Seats in SA: Boothby to ALP #ausvotes

  • 31
    Dagget
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:45 pm | Permalink

    28,000 respondents? Is the is robosurvey by any chance? If not it would have to be cumulative, 28,000 X 5 mins =….alot of time to be doing fieldwork

  • 32
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:45 pm | Permalink

    wow wow wow

  • 33
    James J
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:45 pm | Permalink

    #Nielsen Poll Marginal Seats in SA: Boothby to ALP #ausvotes

  • 34
    Dr Good
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:45 pm | Permalink

    Bugger. You can apparently still get
    odds of 5 to 1 for ALP to get Dunkley
    but it has disappeared from my Sportingbet

  • 35
    Socrates
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:45 pm | Permalink

    If Labor lose 8 in Qld and still show 79 total, they must be picking up some elsewhere.

  • 36
    To Speak of Pebbles
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:45 pm | Permalink

    If this poll is accurate and it pans out that way on Saturday Australia will have its own Mason-Dixon line.

    Dibs on being the Union!

  • 37
    Nick of McEwen
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:45 pm | Permalink

    El Nino,
    Cheers. I visit my parents and friends in McEwen regularly. I live and study in Melbourne, and work in Maribrynong (although I had to look that up just now). I think we’re both onto something. I’m going to bed now. Night all.

  • 38
    Cuppa
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

    It ain’t over till we see the MM concede.

  • 39
    Generic Person
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

    Andrew wrote:

    Why then, GP, did the libs establish the process of costings for campaigns?

    http://www.budget.gov.au/1996-97/honest.pdf

    Basically, it was to remove the “privileged access” to the public service that previous caretaker governments enjoyed.

    There was no inference or implication that this was to submit election costings to the “independent” Treasury because the Treasury cannot be independent by virtue of its complete submission to the executive government of the day.

  • 40
    spur212
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

    Ghostwhovotes: Boothby to the ALP. Take that Southcott!

  • 41
    middle man
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

    pleeeeeeeeeeeease give ALP Sturt…………..

  • 42
    Andrew
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

    And Socrates, NSW must not be that bad

  • 43
    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

    8,000 respondents? Is the is robosurvey by any chance? If not it would have to be cumulative, 28,000 X 5 mins =….alot of time to be doing fieldwork

    Comes to 292 8-hour days.

  • 44
    evan14
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

    Glen would be mortified – the end of Bruce Bilson’s political career?

  • 45
    leftwingpinko
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

    Hopefully a small swing back to the incumbent at the end will push Labor to a very healthy majority.

  • 46
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

    I like polls, but this almost goes too far.

  • 47
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

    Socrates@35

    If Labor lose 8 in Qld and still show 79 total, they must be picking up some elsewhere.

    Vic, SA and I reckon WA :-)

    Go Lannie :-)

  • 48
    middle man
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

    Cuppa how did I get the crap job of giving the concession speech for that fool?

  • 49
    Andrew
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

    8 losses in Qld? Now I know why Julia is doing the town hall!!

  • 50
    madcyril
    Posted Tuesday, August 17, 2010 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

    Glad I got a lazy fiver on Dunkley on the weekend :-)

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