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Federal Election 2010

Aug 19, 2010

D-day minus 2

Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail on the Queensland situation: Labor looks like losing three seats in Queensland at the very least - Leichhardt, Flynn, Dawson - and not pic

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Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail on the Queensland situation:

Labor looks like losing three seats in Queensland at the very least – Leichhardt, Flynn, Dawson – and not picking up the Liberal-held but notionally ALP electorates of Herbert and Dickson. Beyond this Forde, Petrie, Longman and Bonner are within reach for the Coalition but still defendable for Labor. The other Queensland marginals – Brisbane, Moreton and Blair – look to be out of reach for the Coalition but this remains an expect-the-unexpected contest. Another unexpected wild card that is troubling some in the Queensland LNP and exciting a few Labor campaigners is the seat of Wright, the newly created electorate which sprawls to the south of Greater Brisbane and is, on paper, a 4.8 per cent Coalition seat. Some local trouble with the Coalition candidate, Scott Buchholz, and his electoral roll status as well as a few issues running Labor’s way has caused a nervous reassessment in conservative circles, although signs of a 3 to 4 per cent anti-government swing in Queensland make it look like a rank outsider.

Nick O’Malley and Erik Jensen of the Sydney Morning Herald note a curious fact:

But what is truly remarkable about western Sydney is the seats of Lindsay, Macarthur and Macquarie do not enjoy the largesse expected in key marginals. They are among the most important seats in NSW, held on margins of between 0.3 and 6.3 per cent, but there is almost no campaign pork barrelling. Labor’s $2 billion for an Epping-to-Parramatta rail link falls short of the region, though it will ease traffic. The best the Liberals have managed is $5 million to upgrade local sports grounds and some money for a bushland corridor. And still the seats are without adequate transport.

Elsewhere:

Bennelong  (NSW, Labor 1.4%): Momentum is building behind the idea that Maxine McKew will not be spared the backlash against Labor in Sydney. A Liberal source quoted by Imre Salusinszky of The Australian said party polling had their candidate John Alexander “well in front, confirming what state Liberal MPs based in northern Sydney have been telling The Australian since the beginning of the campaign”. However, a Labor source is quoted saying their polling has it at 50-50, to which McKew recovered after Alexander was “edging towards a win on first preferences” at the start of the campaign. A 300-sample Morgan poll conducted on Tuesday had Alexander leading 50.5-49.5

Robertson  (NSW, Labor 0.1%): A complaint to police alleging Liberal candidate Darren Jameson had manhandled two boys he believed had thrown eggs at his car has been withdrawn. Jameson is blaming Labor for the leaking of the complaint to the media. Imre Salusinszky argues that if indeed was a Labor plot to besmirch Jameson in the eyes of local voters, it hasn’t worked.

Herbert (Qld, Labor 0.4%): Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan were in Townsville on Tuesday to launch mainland construction of the National Broadband Network. The fortuitous placement of NBN pilot sites and GP super clinics was covered in depth yesterday by Nikola Berkovic and Adam Cresswell of The Australian.

Courtesy of Lukas in comments, here’s a full list of Labor two-party results from the JWS Research/Telereach robopoll. You can see a full set of results for Bass here; for any other electorate, make the obvious change to the URL. The Lindsay page is broken, hence its lack of a figure in the table. Bold denotes a seat tipped to change hands.

ALP WINS ALP 2PP% LNP WINS ALP 2PP%
Franklin 65 Leichhardt 49.9
Bendigo 61 Robertson 49.8
Deakin 61 Corangamite 49.5
Bass 60 Calare 49
Kingston 59 Bennelong 48
Braddon 58 Flynn 48
McEwen 57 Cowan 48
Dunkley 57 McMillan 48
Hindmarsh 56 Swan 48
Brand 56 Sturt 47
Eden-Monaro 54 Stirling 47
Boothby 54 Dawson 46
Cowper 54 Canning 46
Dobell 53 Ryan 46
Page 53 Petrie 44
Gilmore 53 Forde 44
Moreton 52 Hughes 44
Paterson 52 Hinkler 44
Greenway 51 Hasluck 43
La Trobe 51 Grey 42.5
Longman 51 Macarthur 42
Solomon 51 Bonner 41
Herbert 51 Brisbane 41
Macquarie ? Dickson 41
    Fisher 41
    Bowman 40
    Fairfax 40
    Wright 36
Lindsay ?
William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, is one of the most heavily trafficked forums for online discussion of Australian politics, and joined the Crikey stable in 2008.

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1112 comments

1,112 thoughts on “D-day minus 2

  1. [To Speak of Pebbles
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 6:00 pm | Permalink
    Don’t worry about the Morgan phone poll, it’s an old poll that was dutifully reported here last wee]

    so why are we putting it here and giving us heart failure

  2. my say@1101

    To Speak of Pebbles
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 6:00 pm | Permalink
    Don’t worry about the Morgan phone poll, it’s an old poll that was dutifully reported here last wee

    so why are we putting it here and giving us heart failure

    My fault – didn’t see the date 🙂

  3. [Gillard has said it hundreds of times in the past 4 weeks. Yes.]

    When and how much? And what are the targets?

    Psephos told us the ETS was deader than the White Australia party.

  4. [ltep
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 6:03 pm | Permalink
    It was an accident my say]

    thank god accidents do happen, so no new morgan then

  5. @Gaffhook/1093, If the speech was made 2 weeks ago, people would be going “meh” 2 weeks later.

    It’s crucial I think to remind people of the large faults of the current network as well as the money is going to be spent on.