tip off

D-day minus 2

Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail on the Queensland situation:

Labor looks like losing three seats in Queensland at the very least – Leichhardt, Flynn, Dawson – and not picking up the Liberal-held but notionally ALP electorates of Herbert and Dickson. Beyond this Forde, Petrie, Longman and Bonner are within reach for the Coalition but still defendable for Labor. The other Queensland marginals – Brisbane, Moreton and Blair – look to be out of reach for the Coalition but this remains an expect-the-unexpected contest. Another unexpected wild card that is troubling some in the Queensland LNP and exciting a few Labor campaigners is the seat of Wright, the newly created electorate which sprawls to the south of Greater Brisbane and is, on paper, a 4.8 per cent Coalition seat. Some local trouble with the Coalition candidate, Scott Buchholz, and his electoral roll status as well as a few issues running Labor’s way has caused a nervous reassessment in conservative circles, although signs of a 3 to 4 per cent anti-government swing in Queensland make it look like a rank outsider.

Nick O’Malley and Erik Jensen of the Sydney Morning Herald note a curious fact:

But what is truly remarkable about western Sydney is the seats of Lindsay, Macarthur and Macquarie do not enjoy the largesse expected in key marginals. They are among the most important seats in NSW, held on margins of between 0.3 and 6.3 per cent, but there is almost no campaign pork barrelling. Labor’s $2 billion for an Epping-to-Parramatta rail link falls short of the region, though it will ease traffic. The best the Liberals have managed is $5 million to upgrade local sports grounds and some money for a bushland corridor. And still the seats are without adequate transport.

Elsewhere:

Bennelong  (NSW, Labor 1.4%): Momentum is building behind the idea that Maxine McKew will not be spared the backlash against Labor in Sydney. A Liberal source quoted by Imre Salusinszky of The Australian said party polling had their candidate John Alexander “well in front, confirming what state Liberal MPs based in northern Sydney have been telling The Australian since the beginning of the campaign”. However, a Labor source is quoted saying their polling has it at 50-50, to which McKew recovered after Alexander was “edging towards a win on first preferences” at the start of the campaign. A 300-sample Morgan poll conducted on Tuesday had Alexander leading 50.5-49.5

Robertson  (NSW, Labor 0.1%): A complaint to police alleging Liberal candidate Darren Jameson had manhandled two boys he believed had thrown eggs at his car has been withdrawn. Jameson is blaming Labor for the leaking of the complaint to the media. Imre Salusinszky argues that if indeed was a Labor plot to besmirch Jameson in the eyes of local voters, it hasn’t worked.

Herbert (Qld, Labor 0.4%): Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan were in Townsville on Tuesday to launch mainland construction of the National Broadband Network. The fortuitous placement of NBN pilot sites and GP super clinics was covered in depth yesterday by Nikola Berkovic and Adam Cresswell of The Australian.

Courtesy of Lukas in comments, here’s a full list of Labor two-party results from the JWS Research/Telereach robopoll. You can see a full set of results for Bass here; for any other electorate, make the obvious change to the URL. The Lindsay page is broken, hence its lack of a figure in the table. Bold denotes a seat tipped to change hands.

ALP WINS ALP 2PP% LNP WINS ALP 2PP%
Franklin 65 Leichhardt 49.9
Bendigo 61 Robertson 49.8
Deakin 61 Corangamite 49.5
Bass 60 Calare 49
Kingston 59 Bennelong 48
Braddon 58 Flynn 48
McEwen 57 Cowan 48
Dunkley 57 McMillan 48
Hindmarsh 56 Swan 48
Brand 56 Sturt 47
Eden-Monaro 54 Stirling 47
Boothby 54 Dawson 46
Cowper 54 Canning 46
Dobell 53 Ryan 46
Page 53 Petrie 44
Gilmore 53 Forde 44
Moreton 52 Hughes 44
Paterson 52 Hinkler 44
Greenway 51 Hasluck 43
La Trobe 51 Grey 42.5
Longman 51 Macarthur 42
Solomon 51 Bonner 41
Herbert 51 Brisbane 41
Macquarie ? Dickson 41
    Fisher 41
    Bowman 40
    Fairfax 40
    Wright 36
Lindsay ?
1112
  • 1
    steve
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 5:44 am | Permalink

    This all sounds a far saner assessment of the Queensland marginals than the shrill numbers that were bandied around last weekend.

  • 2
    James J
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 5:44 am | Permalink

    JWS didn’t ask voting intention first?

    Questions asked were:
    “Who is your preferred Prime Minster?”, “Have you voted yet in this federal election?”, IF VOTED: “When you voted, who
    did you vote for: Labor, Liberal, National, Greens or other?”, “And who did you preference after that between Labor and
    the Liberals or Nationals?”, IF NOT VOTED YET:“At the federal election to be held on Saturday who will you vote for in
    your local electorate: Labor, Liberal, National, Greens or other?”, “Even though you are undecided, do you have a leaning
    towards any of the candidates or parties in your seat?”, “Even though it is not your first choice, if you must choose
    between Labor and the Liberals or Nationals at the election on Saturday, who will you choose?”

  • 3
    ltep
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 5:47 am | Permalink

    William, I believe the Darren Jameson comment should be filed under Lindsday rather than Dawson?

  • 4
    James J
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 5:52 am | Permalink

    Should be under Robertson.

  • 5
    ltep
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 5:54 am | Permalink

    Yes, Robertson of course (silly me).

  • 6
    Laocoon
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 6:29 am | Permalink

    tokenyank

    If you are still around: do you have a view on the comparison of the use of the internet in this election campaign with the last US presidential election process?

  • 7
    stan speaker
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 6:33 am | Permalink

    Phoney’s 24 hour non stop electioneering is a straight lift from David Cameron’s UK last day of campaigning.

  • 8
    mad professor
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 6:39 am | Permalink

    Can anyone explain why everyone is predicting a Leichhardt loss? 2PP prediction seems to suggest it’s a knife-edge, but no-one is predicting a Labor save. Any intell?

  • 9
    Bud Sigotoga
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 6:48 am | Permalink

    Can anyone tell me if JWS only asked people who they would chose between labour, liberal or national and as I understand it did not ask using the name of the candidate. If that is the case the poll is low for labour in Herbert. We have a candidate who was mayor for around 18 years.

    He has as bigger name recognition in Townsville as Clem Jones did in Brisbane thirty years ago.

    Mad Professor take it from me Leichardt is a definate loss. Google Bud Sigotoga and check my old posts because I have commented several times on this subject and I am to lazy to do it again.

  • 10
    philmour
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 6:49 am | Permalink

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/long-odds-on-coalition-win-bemuse-betting-agencies-20100818-12f8x.html

  • 11
    blue_green
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 6:52 am | Permalink

    William,

    have you provided a link to Mr Catsaras’ article that says the ALP will win the election from yesterdays AFR (also todays Local News)

    http://southern-courier.whereilive.com.au/news/story/catsaras-alp-will-win-the-2010-election/

  • 12
    blue_green
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 6:57 am | Permalink

    tokenyank

    If you are still around: do you have a view on the comparison of the use of the internet in this election campaign with the last US presidential election process?

    Laoccoon,

    No-one really used the internet this time around because those decisive ‘bogans’ don’t use the internet for anything but porn and people falling over and hurting themselves on youtube.

    Thus the only real internet campaigning features youtube p-sstakes.

    PS Laocoon Today I saw you in portrait by El Greco.

    http://www.nga.gov/collection/gallery/gg29/gg29-33253.html

    Is it a good likeness?

  • 13
    centaur009
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:00 am | Permalink

    William’s like gotta be asleep in Perth right as it’s 3am. We can run amock in the southern states. Flash brown eyes (*) and general tom foolary yes?

  • 14
    blue_green
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:01 am | Permalink

    To prove my point

    the third most downloaded campaign youtube video is Tony Abbott nearly getting run over by a truck with 75,000 views.

    Only a Q&A mashup and tony flirting with julia on the today show has more views.

  • 15
    Laocoon
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:07 am | Permalink

    b_g

    I think this one is a bit closer to the mark :D

    http://www.ebtx.com/art/laocoon.jpg

    On which note, I better head to the gym!

  • 16
    blue_green
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:13 am | Permalink

    OK Laocoon,

    If you see any horses on the way, keep it to yourself this time.

  • 17
    Metarzan
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:15 am | Permalink

    Tony Abbott, all your seats are belong to us.

  • 18
    Socrates
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:18 am | Permalink

    Interesting that looking overall, the results of the monster phone poll look fairly believeable.

    Regarding Western Sydney, this article is interesting in its conclusions:
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/why-labor-is-losing-the-west-20100818-12f8f.html

    The problems in western Sydney are IMO almost all due to State Labor failures to provide services, especially transport and health. I wonder just how many NSW Labor right figures actualy live in the area? Very few, I suspect.

  • 19
    ltep
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:19 am | Permalink

    Trioli believes the campaign would’ve been more exciting if Gillard faced Turnbull because a lot of Labor voters want to vote for him.

    Then goes on to read out an email from a man who has always voted for Labor but can’t because of their failure to provide good governance.

  • 20
    blue_green
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:21 am | Permalink

    Trioli believes the campaign would’ve been more exciting if Gillard faced Turnbull because a lot of Labor voters want to vote for him.

    Alas we will never know. Until next time that is

  • 21
    Steam driven Interweb
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:22 am | Permalink

    Anyone here think the rabbott’s Climate Scepticism Gaffe
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/a-climate-sceptic-pm-not-a-good-look-20100817-1284a.html
    could mean lib green protest voters (10% of green vote) will now preference libs lower than labor meaning even higher late incumbent swing ??

  • 22
    Gorgeous Dunny
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:23 am | Permalink

    Wow! pretty exhausting keeping track of D minus 4. Great effort by Julia last night at the Forum. Sky calling it a draw was a bit like the Black Knight in Monty Python. Those polled got it pretty right. Seemed to be reasonably probing questions, suggesting Galaxy worked hard to avoid the Rooty Hill fiasco.

    Heard a rerun of LNL on pollsters which included Briggs.(Did this in between cab business – so missed some). I agree with Possum that he and most other leading pollsters are kosher – need to be for their business. How others use or misuse that information is another matter – I think he was referring to the News Ltd tabloids takes on it. He added a VERY interesting afterthought that ALP insiders didn’t bother to dispute it because it suits their strategy to leave the impression there’s still work to do.

  • 23
    Steam driven Interweb
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:26 am | Permalink

    the third most downloaded campaign youtube video is Tony Abbott nearly getting run over by a truck with 75,000 views.

    That’s a bad omen for the rabbott

  • 24
    William Conroy
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:28 am | Permalink

    where is newspoll in all of this, two days from the election and nothing not a whisper if it is good for labor murdoch wont want it proclaimed and if it is bad for abbott the same goes anyone else smelling a rodent here.

  • 25
    blue_green
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:28 am | Permalink

    Steam Driven Interweb,

    The scepticism is pretty much the reason of the swings to the ALP in SA and Vic, the two states hardest hit by CC.

  • 26
    ltep
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:29 am | Permalink

    William Conroy, it’ll be out on Friday evening. Last election it came out in the late afternoon.

  • 27
    centaur009
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:31 am | Permalink

    Jullia’s horoscope (Libra)- You will be speaking out on an important issue today. The key phrase is “dysfunctional relationships”. Whether you are personally involved or not, you will have a clear moment of insight into what makes relationships work, or fall apart

    The Rabbott (scorpio)
    You could have a series of sudden changes in financial fortunes, first up, then down then back up again. Avoid shopping trips where your impulsive spending habits could get you into a load of trouble with the credit card companies if you are not careful.

  • 28
    blue_green
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:31 am | Permalink

    where is newspoll in all of this, two days from the election and nothing not a whisper if it is good for labor murdoch wont want it proclaimed and if it is bad for abbott the same goes anyone else smelling a rodent here.

    Wait until election day now I reckon.

  • 29
    Steam driven Interweb
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:33 am | Permalink

    Steam Driven Interweb,

    The scepticism is pretty much the reason of the swings to the ALP in SA and Vic, the two states hardest hit by CC.

    but I mean a late uniform nationwide swing to incumbent since the gaffe on monday

  • 30
    Steam driven Interweb
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:37 am | Permalink

    on top of the normal swing to incumbent

  • 31
    clubhouse@chalambar
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:37 am | Permalink

    Morning Bludgers.
    I watched the Broncos townhaller on the net last night. I viewed a tense (drawn bow string?) man largely bluster with brief moments of sentience for an hour. The fear of failure was palpable, but overall I’d describe it as a blustering performance. 30 minutes later JG began and after a diffident intro she answered and informed across a stunning range of portfolios. I found myself listening and, frequently, learning. My OH and I, both Green voters and Labor preferencers, were palpably impressed. We were listening to a worthy PM; having earlier listened to an adequate small town mayoral aspirant. The gulf in performance was vast.
    The journalistic reactions were saddening because they revealed a singular lack of focus on detail and an obsession on headlines. The ABC again created a bias with headlines, position of stories and frequency of Abbott rather JG mention. My father would have cried at the ABC’s demise were he alive.
    I would have scored the meeting 90/100 Gillard and 55/100 Abbott.

  • 32
    Rocket Rocket
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:39 am | Permalink

    With regard to the seat of Melbourne, has anyone thought that the easiest way for Labor to make sure of winning it is this?

    Just covertly organize 1000-1500 rusted-on Labor voters to vote Libs 1, Lab 2.

    Push the Libs into second place and win easily on Green preferences.

  • 33
    blue_green
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:40 am | Permalink

    but I mean a late uniform nationwide swing to incumbent since the gaffe on monday

    No I think those swingers have worked out who they are going home with.

  • 34
    chinda63
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:41 am | Permalink

    Good morning, Bludgers :-)

    From Jackol – two threads back (gee you go to bed and wake up to find things have seriously moved on!)

    I actually thought the footage of Scott Morrison going to Nauru was actually quite bad for the libs – the footage journos took of it looked so run down, desolate and awful – overgrown with weeds and little ramshackle huts. I actually think a lot of people looking at that who might agree with the abstract concept of ‘offshore processing’ would think twice about whether they would want to force people to go there.

    The other thing about anyone seeing this footage was they would wonder about the Opposition’s claim that it can be up and running in a matter of weeks. Totally aside from its state of disrepair, the other building they were using to detain asylum seekers is currently being used as a high school; a fact that has been largely reported, so I don’t understand why this point isn’t being pushed more:

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/nauru-solution-opens-up-to-pm-julia-gillard/story-e6freon6-1225891430972

    http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/nauru-solution-opens-up-to-pm-julia-gillard/story-e6frg12c-1225891468051

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/labors-nauru-option-20100713-109ie.html

    This raises quite a few questions, not least of which is where will the children go to school if this gets turned back into a detention centre?

  • 35
    blue_green
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:41 am | Permalink

    Thats a special anti-climate sceptic swing I meant. I agree with you about swing to incumbent.

  • 36
    castle
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:42 am | Permalink

    Ad ban is now on.

    Good time for News and ABC to go feral on labor with “sources say” stories.

  • 37
    blue_green
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:43 am | Permalink

    looks like most bludgers are predicting a comfortable ALP win. A small minority expect a hung or nearly hung parliament,

  • 38
    blue_green
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:44 am | Permalink

    Good time for News and ABC to go feral on labor with “sources say” stories.

    Everyone can play that game.

  • 39
    chinda63
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:48 am | Permalink

    Anyone else notice that Red won at Red Hill and the failed priest-in-training won at Rooty Hill? :-D

  • 40
    my say
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:49 am | Permalink

    not the head lines on top of cricky at google alp have a slim lead

  • 41
    Andrew
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:50 am | Permalink

    I actually cant keep up with how wrong the Lib costings are: $8b in veterans indexation, $600m NBN (havent fixed this despite the “leak”), another $1b Swan announced yesterday and the $2,5b referred to in the OO. I’m getting over $12b. Have Labor or the MSM got a figure?

  • 42
    ltep
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:52 am | Permalink

    Will Gillard get the standing ovation afforded to Abbott when she gives her address to the Press Club today?

  • 43
    ltep
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:52 am | Permalink

    Don’t forget the dubious “stop the boats dividend” Andrew.

  • 44
    my say
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:53 am | Permalink

    31 clubhouse@chalambar
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:37 am | Permalink
    Morning Bludgers

    join us next week in talking to our senators labor and green we have to do what we can senate estimates perhaps how much of the tax payer dollar do the spend on wages for jounos and new items as opposed to good journalism.

    i have already spoken to my senator will talk and write again next week

  • 45
    my say
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:54 am | Permalink

    ITEP i ask this question because i was told he did and then people who watched said no he did nt

  • 46
    Andrew
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 7:56 am | Permalink

    $2.5b “hollow log” sinks coalition surplus claims- from the OO no less

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/coalitions-surplus-claims-sunk-by-attack-on-hollow-log/story-fn59niix-1225907049110

    Quite apart from the sheer incompetance (they would have sunk any OL except it appears Abbott), they must know they wont get in to promise such figures. I’d almost like Abbott to get in so this blows up in their face, but I cant abide him as PM

  • 47
    Andrew
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 8:01 am | Permalink

    I think Labor need to keep it simple in the final 2 days. Calculate the REAL Coalition balance sheet, and press home their economic incompetance. I think it could bolster the late swing.

    I heard the west’s (off all papers) editor on ABC radio yesterday slamming the costings as soon as they were released, yet amazingly, the coalition has remained unscathed in most reporting.

    There is a HUGE black hole. Let’s hear about it

  • 48
    ltep
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 8:01 am | Permalink

    My say, I heard he did.

  • 49
    Andrew
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 8:02 am | Permalink

    ltep I think we established this was not true

  • 50
    Andrew
    Posted Thursday, August 19, 2010 at 8:04 am | Permalink

    It is quite notable that Gillard hasn’t really sunk the boot into Abbott. Haven’t heard much about the gospel truth, and yesterday was the first time she was challenging him going “missing” on the economy. Labor is far too nice for their own good, whereas the Liberals will flight, claw, lie, mislead, do and say anything.

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