The Australian has published a Newspoll survey of 1134 respondents which finds 47 per cent of respondents want the rural independents to back Labor, compared with 39 per cent for the Coalition. There is, predictably enough, “almost unanimous partisan support among voters for the party they supported” – which can only mean primary vote support for the Coalition has taken a solid hit since the election, at which they polled 43.7 per cent. Hopefully more to follow.
UPDATE: We also have another JWS/Telereach robopoll courtesy of the Fairfax broadsheets, this time of 4192 respondents, which has 37 per cent for Labor, 31 per cent for the Coalition and 26 per cent for a new election. However, on voting intention the Coalition leads 44.9 per cent to 35.4 per cent on the primary vote and 50.4-49.6 on two-party preferred, suggesting most of those in favour of a new election are Coalition supporters.
UPDATE 2: Full JWS-Telereach release here, courtesy GhostWhoVotes. I gather the poll targeted 55 seats with post-election margins of less than 6 per cent, and the vote results above extrapolate the swings on to the national results. On Coalition costings, 40 per cent of respondents professed themselves very concerned and 19 per cent somewhat concerned, with only 35 per cent showing little or no concern. People are more concerned about the Greens balance of power in the Senate (49 per cent say “bad for Australia” against 39 per cent good) than the value of the Labor-Greens alliance (opinion evenly divided). Julia Gillard only just shades Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, 43 per cent to 41 per cent, and respondents are evenly divided on which party would prove more “stable and competent”.
3,161 Comments
I can’t help thinking the three independents will be much less interested in this Australia-wide poll than the thinking in their own electorates.
Still on the theme of infrastructure and media narrative. I predict this idea will start to be taken seriously in the next year or so..
http://media.beyondzeroemissions.org/ZCA2020_Stationary_Energy_Synopsis_v1.pdf
Its a plan to bring us to zero carbon emissions in 10 years and it makes good engineering sense. And In case you’re wondering, my starting point was researching Katter’s grid idea.
I know I am a newbie at stats, but I fail to see how if Lab 37%, Coaln 31% and 26% new election, the coaln would get a higher pv and 2pp?
alias, I think the newspoll was done in the three electorates.
Puff it just says to me that more coalition voters are in the 26% that want a new election. Hardly surprising.
No, I think it’s national. Shanahan’s piece is confusingly written, but the last four paras are talking entirely about their poll from last week.
There’s the clue – he disguises himself by writing in a confusing fashion.
Ghost’ll strip that mask off one day and reveal …
Dennis Shannahan!
Truth is stranger than fiction.
It’ll rock your collective worlds
Sorry william, was not taking the long view
yeah, sorry.. you’re probably right there William. It is confusing though.
SO – if only 1 indi goes Labor (say Oakeshott) and the other 2 coalition that makes 75-75 right?
Is this a new election?
(Noting unlikely since they seem to want to band somewhat)
@10. I asked that question here on this blog and the answer I got was no, you can’t go to an early election without a PM being appointed (however temporary). However I never got a clear and detailed explanation as to why.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/greens-to-rush-same-sex-bill/story-e6frg6nf-1225914037018
THE Greens will use their alliance with Labor to prosecute their push for same-sex marriage and liberalising the treatment of refugees by bringing forward their legislation and demanding it be debated, possibly with conscience votes, in the new parliament.
Soooo – something like Gillard gets first chance to test numbers – can’t elect a speaker… back to GG – then coalition is invited to try … still can’t … THEN GG disolves again assuming deadlock?
11 by cud chewer,
Julia Gillard is currently the Prime Minister and if the Parliament has proven itself to be unable to function she can advise the Governor-General to call a new election.
Sir Oftswing…sounds about right.
ok gwv
So she is the only one who can advise the gg, actually no, its ambiguous.
since when is 47% a ‘majority’?
@13, that’s my belief. Certainly if I were the GG I’d want to (be able to) play it that way.. Just would love it spelled out in black in white from the Constitution.
Ghost @14.. I thought that Julia is currently caretaker and has to be duly sworn in as new PM before she can call for a vote?
18
It is called a “simple majority” when it is compared to 39%
It’s the same expression in the House of Representatives when a “simple majority” of say 74-73 (with 3 abstaining) is all that is needed to pass a bill.
(Compared to an “absolute majority” which would be 76-74 or greater)
That’s a great PDF cud. It looks like we’re even more ready than I thought.
The cover image is great. A network of those would be very useful for us.
This weather looks scary
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR023.loop.shtml#skip
Obviously the rain at the footy was just the entrée!
20 by cud chewer,
The caretaker conventions require Julia Gillard to obtain the approval of Tony Abbott before making any changes to Government policy, however she is the Prime Minister and will remain so unless the Opposition makes a formal agreement with the Independents that would give the Opposition a majority in the House or the Government is defeated by at least 76 votes for a Motion of No Confidence. If the House is unable to function due to a deadlock then as PM she would have the authority to advise the Governor-General to call an election for the House.
2 cud
that look very interesting and I have downloaded it to look at when I’m not so tired.
ps – thanks GWV – I must say I have been stunned by the lack of polls since the election.
So unless they go dog we are sweet. That was was my interpretation.
The OO‘s Agenda:
GhostWhoVotes – “The Stig” of Australian politics
So why are they waiting another weekend?
Convince me why this is happening.
GHV @24, I just spent a while reading the constitution and its pretty sparse tbh.
It talks about the GG being able to appoint ministers. I assume that includes the PM. It also talks about the Parliament having to sit within 30 days of writs being returned.
From what you’re saying, Julia cruises along as (caretaker) PM and when the Parliament sits, they first have to vote or a speaker and then comes the confidence/no confidence vote.
I guess my problem stems from the bookmakers. On Sportingbet they have a bet called “Which Party Will Form Government”. On the face of that its not clear exactly what event causes a government to be formed. They then go on add the explanatory text “Payout on Party that Provides Prime Minister”.
Problem is that there is seemingly no specific event that determines when such PM is “provided”. Here’s a couple of concrete examples.
Suppose Julia is able to go to the next sitting of Parliament and calls for a vote for speaker. Is Julia then acting as PM – thus settling the bet?
Next, suppose a speaker is appointed. Presumably the next step is either a confidence or no confidence motion. That fails. What then? Can Julia at that moment ask for a new election? Or is she compelled to resign? Or can the house proceed directly to a no confidence motion in Abbott?
If the bookmaker says no, at this stage Julia hasn’t yet been “provided as Prime Minister”, you get into awful strife. In theory at least you could end up with a new election leaving all bets so far unsettled. But that would end up in right royal mess because the bets were placed on this current election, not the next.
Originally I was lead to believe that before Parliament sits, the GG chooses the Ministers. I’d always thought that was the point at which a caretaker PM becomes a ‘real’ PM. In the constitution it merely says the GG appoints ministers. It doesn’t take care say when. I assume that’s in the conventions.
Anyhow, I’m not the only one to wonder this. There must be some point at which “a government is formed” or Prime Minister is “provided”.
Now I’m confused as ever.
Warwick, I think the independents are waiting for the AEC to declare counting finished.
“A coalition of the mongoose and the cobra”
and with that Christopher Pyne became awesome!
She doesn’t do this – after the members have been sworn in the election of the Speaker is conducted by the clerk.
After the failure of a no-confidence motion the PM could indeed ask for an election, but the GG should only grant it if satisified that an alternative government couldn’t be formed in the existing parliament. Under the circumstances, the independents would consider that Gillard had reneged on the deal in asking for an election and could then switch their support to Abbott. Given the possibility of that outcome, I expect the GG would not automatically accede to an election, but would instead send the PM to face the parliament again.
Normally the GG swears in the whole ministry after the election, and I guess the same thing will happen after the rural independents announce which way they will jump, if indeed they do so in a way that resolves the situation. If it ends up being that the PM will have to test her numbers in parliament, I presume it wouldn’t happen until after it expresses confidence in her.
William, I’m not sure on that, although I suppose we shouldn’t take the Fraser 1975 caretaker ministry as precedent.
Wow… Looking at The Australian’s other stories makes it clear who they’d prefer in Government. Shameless.
They could do this if Labor were in Opposition too. Having a conscience vote on Labor’s side is pretty irrelevant if Abbott refuses one on his side. Blatant fear mongering.
How’s your appraisal of the situation, ltep? I must confess I’m being quite bipolar as of late. I have gone from optimistic, to pessimistic, to optimistic again. No doubt I’ll go back to pessimism before too long. Just hope KOW make a decision before too long. While the country is in fine shape to look after itself with its caretaker government in the mean time, political junkies like myself need resolution!
That would sum up how I feel too Pebbles. I think every comment the independents have made is able to be read both ways. The cynic in me is saying they’re just trying to get the best deal out of the Coalition. On the other hand I think Abbott and his minders must think there’s a good chance it’s going the other way since it’s obvious this ALP-Greens deal scare campaign is being waged on orders from the top. Current gut feeling is 45/55 as to the likelihood of Labor/Coalition forming government but that’s come down from 25/75 around a week ago.
I’d be surprised if the independents felt swayed at all by either of these polls. I wonder if the robopoll is biased in favour of the side who looks at most danger. People might feel more inclined to answer a robopoll if they felt things weren’t going their way.
Am I the only one who has noticed that this Poll is pre-black hole? They may have been a further shift since then.
I wonder why the OO sat on this until Saturday. Usually they release the polls in a day or two. It’s as if they waited until it seemed their side would lose.
On another point , the black hole is the same amount as that which Howard taunted Beazley for years, with the added charge that it was hidden from the voters. Revenge is sweet, and I hope it gives Labor the confidence it needs to finally take the fibs on wrt economic management
The robopoll seems to me quite a lot worse for Labor than Newspoll. If Newspoll has 39 per cent wanting a Coalition government including 92 per cent of Coalition voters, and the 14 per cent “uncommitted” obviously dominated by non-major supporters, then it can’t have the Coalition travelling all that well on voting intention. JWS on the other hand has a primary vote gap 3.9 per cent wider than at the election. That more respondents backed a Labor than Coalition minority government is obviously because Coalition supporters were more inclined to back the third option, a new election.
Ltep u r the ultimate pessimist. If gillard wins, do u promise to be more optimistic in the future?
my dad says we are going to win.
He’s 75 and knows everything. He thinks Julia is the best.
More guts than brains he said once then quickly corrected himself in case he had a feminist trip laid on him.
He hates that.
Keeps quoting ratios.Said rudd lost it when he picked a fight to prove he was ballsy when he wasn’t in the first place.
He picked Keatings demise also.
The first budget after he got back keating was history.It’s the L.A.W.
He said, ‘all he had was trust’, they won’t elect him again.
Yes William and Jws was so much better than Newspoll in predicting the election result too. I can see why there would be a shift to the coalition since the election – costings fiasco, budget black hole , bully boy tactics…
These polls are meaningless to the indies in any case, but at least will do something to counteract the seat based polls in voters minds and hopefully blunt the coailtions inevitable illegitimacy line.
I wonder why it has taken two weeks to get a poll on who should govern? It seems those engaging the pollsters were too scared to ask the question. Same reason we never got a Dennison or Melbourne poll. I wish reform of media ownership laws was on the agenda
William the newspoll was Monday – Tuesday. Alot has happened since then. Iveould be surprised if Labor couldn’t do better on polling this weekend
Well, I think this.
Last I looked. Julia Gillard was and is the Prime Minister.
Electoral Division of Lalor (Vic)
The Hon Julia Gillard MP
Awaiting declaration of the poll in this electoral division.
Title: Prime Minister.
http://www.aph.gov.au/house/members/member.asp?id=83L
Julia Gillard IS the Prime Minister.
It is the GOVERNMENT which is in caretaker mode.
I expect on this occasion Parliament will resume.
Maybe it must.
Establishing authority to go to the GG.
High risk strategy to do otherwise, even if, given a certain precedent.
In the meantime…….
The Hon Julia Gillard MP. The Prime Minister of Australia.
Little wonder the forces seek to describe the position as otherwise.
Little wonder the forces seek to question the impartiality of the Governor General.
Little wonder the forces seek to discredit the represented Party’s claim to re election.
I think it’s in the bag actually judging by the almost hysterical pleading from the LNP and universal condemnation from the right wing MSM.
Abbott hasn’t done anything since the election that enhances his chances to form govt IMHO. On the contrary the ALP and particularly Julia have handled things perfectly. Getting Wilkie onside without selling her soul was a masterstroke as opposed to Abbotts massive bribes. It makes you wonder how Abbott has been dealing with the Amigoes in private.
cheers
In fact, the voting intention numbers required to make the Newspoll figures stack up are really bad for the Coalition – 54-46 to Labor territory.
Think your old grey da has nailed it.
To be honest, it probably matters not which way these polls go. KOW have made it clear that they won’t be influenced by polling. Whoever wins their support (or in Gillard’s case, even so much as gets them to abstain from support) will lead the polls and be PPM before too long.
And William that would be 54/46 PRE black hole
Pebbles, that was a meaningless post. You can’t prevaricate on important things.Say what you think. Lead, follow, or get out of the way.
Oh Dear – Now is NOT the time or place Arch.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/bitter-arch-bevis-hits-out-at-loss-in-brisbane-and-wants-inquiry-into-alp-performance-in-qld/story-fn5z3z83-1225913979296
Because a lot of things (including, for example, the office of Prime Minister itself) are not even mentioned in the Constitution, all we have to go by is what has been done on past occasions (people talk about ‘convention’: ‘convention’ means ‘what people did last time, and the time before, and the time before that’).
As far as the Constitution goes, all the people who were ministers before the election (including the Prime Minister) are still ministers, with exactly the same status as before as far as the Constitution goes. We call the government ‘caretaker’ because that’s a ‘convention’: in other words, in the past governments in this situation have been called ‘caretaker’ and have followed special ‘caretaker’ rules. (There’s nothing in the Constitution to say they have to.)
There is no requirement, even by ‘convention’, for ministers to resign and be reappointed after an election. In the past (‘convention’ again), sometimes a government which has won an election has nevertheless resigned because it’s been easier to reshuffle all the ministerial appointments by starting from a clean sheet. But sometimes not, and the same (or mostly the same) ministers have carried on without any need for reappointment.
One thing that is specifically required by the Constitution is for the House of Representatives to meet, and there is a Constitutional deadline for this. When it meets, the first item of business will be the election of a Speaker, over which the Clerk of the House will preside. If past examples (‘conventions’) are followed, the Prime Minister will nominate a candidate for the position and the Leader of the Opposition may or may not nominate a rival candidate. If the House elects the Prime Minister’s candidate, that has conventionally been taken as confirmation that the Government has the confidence of the House. If the Opposition succeeds in getting its rival candidate elected over the Government’s nominee, that has conventionally been taken as confirmation that the Government does not have the House’s confidence and the Prime Minister then resigns and advises that the Leader of the Opposition be invited to form a Government instead.
Libs have all but given up:
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/election/a/-/election/7880113/liberal-hopes-fade-as-kingmaker-call-looms/
Arch Bevis should stop looking for scapegoats to explain his defeat. There are many reasons.
Yes, he did have a bad redistribution – the exclusive conservative areas of Clayfield, Ascot and Hendra – were added to his seat. Originally these areas were proposed for Swan’s seat of Lilley, but he objected and they were moved to Brisbane.
The swing against Bevis was similar to the swing elsewhere in SEQ. However, he must stand in front of the mirror and have a honest look at who contributed to his defeat. Sorry, Arch, you were a lazy member of parliament and did not look after your electorate in, say, the way that Kevin Rudd nurtured his.
Just move on, mate.
30: The bookies pay out when a government is sworn in by the GG.
Mike Carlton pitches in and reflects on Peter Andren and the Indies
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/its-dark-ive-upset-my-bagman-and-im-down-to-my-undies-20100903-14ubw.html
William @ 49
Thanks, William. I really like those numbers.
I guess the numbers must have been bad for the Libs & that’s why the Oz chose to hide them. (I find it very hard to believe that they didn’t ask a question about voting intention at the same time as question about preferred outcome.)
Totally OT Pebbles, but is your new avatar a Venusian ambassador to earth? What happened to that lovely soothing pic of the planet Venus? I suppose you’ve been asked this question before but I’m sorry, I missed your answer.
WTF. Your ABC lead story this morning that the same Newspoll found that 56% want the Undies to support Coalition. Where did the drongos at Their ABC get their information from.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/majority-of-voters-in-their-electorates-want-the-independents-to-back-labor/story-fn59niix-1225914017626
Love it!
I would imagine the labor right wing really really wants it all to go away.
Frank @ 56
[Libs have all but given up}
Please, please, let it be soon. My nerves won’t stand much more of this. So far the Libs have done sweet F A to show that can even be considered as able to form government – suspect budget costings, rants by various would-be ministers, an overall tenor of “we won, really, it’s just you lot won’t let us have the trophy”. How could the indies end up supporting such a mob? Give us your decision asap, please. It’s like some sort of waterboarding!
From the previous thread, the Herr Doktor said this:
and in the OO this morning, Shananananananans said this:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/the-abbott-ascendancy/story-fn59niix-1225913605590
Hey, Herr Doktor either you are wRONg or Shananananan is wRONg, not to mention Diog who is just wRONg. Just as well we are on the same side, otherwise i have to bestow on you the Diog’s disease.
I’m cleaning stuff off the puter and found this which is a great insight into Abbott and his psyche and written before he handed over his costings.
http://aussieobserver.blogspot.com/2010/08/real-tony-abbott.html
Shamahan would be my bet as most likely wRONg
Shamaham forgot to mention that all that will mean nothing if Labor is given the Indies’ backing. All 4 may turn out to be a roaring success eventually.
Newspoll’s own website states quite explicitly that the poll today in the OO was done in their elctorates it even says how many in each of the indies electorates.
Antony G explains conventions for hung parliament, new govt & election quite clearly on ABC site under “Hung Parliament” right side of ABC News home page. I see the right royal Pyne in the butt is at it again – he’s the only (mon)goose playing with a cobra.
what ever shanahan is on is it legal? and can I buy it over the counter. With Abbott such a paragon of virtue where did we all go wrong in not handing him the keys of the treasure chest.
Coalition Accused of Dirty Tricks Campaign
http://www.news.com.au/features/federal-election/independents-accuse-coalition-of-dirty-tricks/story-e6frfllr-1225914066222
well with good press would of this been what the polls looked like
if he still want to be in parliement just start campaining now and witha little bit of common sence by qld, next time he will be back
Stick the spurs in chaps – hold onto the hilt tightly.
We are in the beginning of the death throws of the beast.
Bevis should pull his head in
Any one seen Fin Review today – worth buying?
?
your dad knows best i would say and he has been around for a while longer than someof us.
Grey what i am thinking they may have already decided and are studying their agreements after all i heard that Mr. Wilkie had to read through 8 pages and i should imagine that woudl A4 size before he signed on.
this would take the week end and then discussion with the spouses etc.
I wonder if we will ever see thsi result reportted, or if this will be another Newspoll consigned to the quarterly amalgamation of trends reporting trick?
I really don’t know which way it will go, but one thing I take comfort in is that if the Indies had already given a wink to the coalition, there would be a lot less of the dirty tricks campaign.
was the the article by Laura Tingle, some of the words from that where posted here last night, yes will be getting copy 3 dolars well spent as the poster said last night.
Given demographic changes in inner Brisbane, is there any danger that brisbane might end up like Melbourne Ports, if Andrew Bartlett runs again? He got over 20% this time.
William is newspoll In the indies electorates though not nationwide? That would represent a big shift since the last newspoll and that is pre black hole
Sir oftswing they can’t win something without cheating can they ?
those polls may be tell us the people have awoken
Has the oo provided comparison figures for the previous poll? It appears that the coalition has gone from over 50% to under 40% in a week. Again, why did newspoll sit on this poll all week??
If they get rid of tone for Joe this will be hockeys black hole as he was shadow treasurer.
Glad to see Carlton identifying new ltd as a factor but fairfax wasn’t much better. Grattan’s articles were similar to Shanahan’s
Newspoll is OK the problem is The Australian. My question is why has the OO published this at all as it goes against calls for the indies to submit to coalition rule.
Because Limited News can finally see the writing on the wall and have decided it is time to accept and usher in the New Era of the Watermelon
Sorry I meant the OO. Thus would have been ready last Wednesday . On his writing up shanahan confusingly puts in the last polls figures and ignores the main finding of the poll- the big shift to Labor sicnce the last indie seat poll
I think you are right William, the Governor-General will wait to see how things play out in the House before exercising any of her reserve powers. That the deadlock would continue seems to be unlikely (given the statements by the independents that they do not want to go back to the polls), though not impossible, and we have to remember that if the House starts to get volatile later, we could end up back in the same situation as allegiances switch (which again, I think is unlikely on the core issues of confidence and supply, but everything else is up for grabs).
However, for the sake of argument, and because it remains a real possibility, while the Constitution grants the Governor-General a number of reserve powers, how they are actually used is covered by convention and the truth is that many of these conventions are untested (simply because we have never needed to).
In the situation where neither party is able to get 76 seats in the HoR, the G-G could exercise a number of her reserve powers, perhaps the most important being the power to dissolve parliament (section 5). As the process is governed by convention or in cases where convention is of no assistance, through consultation with Justices of the High Court (see 1975 for an infamous example) I see there being a few potential solutions:
1) If neither party gains a majority the G-G my exercise her power-by-convention and appoint a Prime Minister from the House (of her choice). It would be expected that this Prime Minister would then immediately request the G-G dissolve the House (and back to the polls we go). This would, in my view, only be an option in the unlikely situation where a no-confidence motion in Julia does not succeed, but she does not have the numbers to form a majority (ie. the independents abstain across the board) and she refuses to request for the House to be dissolved.
2) In the situation where the House losses confidence in the Prime Minister (Julia), and no other possible Prime Minister can gain the support of the House, then the G-G may again appoint a Prime Minister who would be expected to request for the House to be dissolved (and if they didn’t it would be a very short tenure, as the House would pass a no-confidence at first opportunity).
3) The ‘1975’ option; the Prime Minister (Julia) without the numbers to pass supply through the HoR, is sacked and a new Prime Minister appointed, who would then request the House be dissolved. This one is tricky as you would theoretically need to test a supply bill in the House, and have to hope that at least 2 of the independents (along with all of the coalition) would block it. As you wouldn’t expect someone to block supply but not support a no-confidence motion, the unworkable parliament should be clear enough much sooner on for one of the other options to be taken.
4) The precedential option; the G-G seeks advice from the Chief Justice of the High Court (defacto deputy and constitutional legal advisor), who advises that given the circumstances where no Prime Minister is able to enjoy support of the House (or enough support to be able to govern), the G-G is able to exercise her power to dissolve the House under section 5 without a request from or consultation with the Prime Minister (ie. outside of the conventions).
No matter how this goes, this is a happy time for any constitutional lawyer out there. I imagine many of them are disappointed that politics keeps getting in the way.
I think the OO would go into meltdown if there was a wisper of a greens policy for media reform.
Re the black hole, the ALP should link the dodgy costings to the behavior of merchant banks in the GFC, repeat that they are all cut from the same cloth.
So the Newspoll was taken early on in the week, and first published today? Is that right?
Arch should have been gently(or not) pushed years ago, he typifies the sitting seat warmer; almost invisible to his electorate and completely disengaged from his constituents. He lost because he ran a hopeless local campaign and now he is lashing out because he can’t deal with his own failures.
Second time I’ve seen something like this. Can’t they count? 76 is a majority regardless of who comprises it. That’s the whole point of what’s going at the moment, isn’t it? From an article by one David Mark on the ABC election site: “The deal formally secured the vote of Melbourne MP Adam Bandt and yesterday Labor added the vote of Tasmanian independent Andrew Wilkie, bringing the party to within two of the 76 seats needed for it to form a minority government.”
Oh Dear – Now is NOT the time or place Arch.
Bevis has become Butthead.
In defence of poor old Arch, he was talking to a branch meeting. If you can’t vent at a branch meeting, then the ALP soul really is dead.
There would have been a lot of branch members wanting to know wtf went wrong.
I have should have added that Arch’s days were up a long time ago, however with the redistribution, I think his personal vote in the rest of the electorate was a factor on him running again.
Bevis could go a Gambaro and recontest. If he wouldnt dummy spit that is.
Grattan true to form has hidden the fairfax poll on page 7 of The Age, with no graphic. In fact its quite easy to miss
I should add the age editorial says that Abbott’s costing problems make the independents’ choice clearer: ie to back Labor
Well then IMHO what the branch members deserved to get was contrition from Arch for his woeful performance delivering them into the hands of the conservatives.
The real question is, who leaked the contents of the Sub-Branch meeting to the media?
confessions, its from mon/tues. The costings fiasco broke wed. So before the black hole there had been a more than 10% swing against supporting the coalition in the indie electorates
Ta Andrew.
We’ll never really know why the Oz sat on the poll for several days, when Newspoll are usually very quick with the results, but I’m sure we all have our own views why.
i can see why the shift yesterday in meme was to the left wing bogeyman. The opposition has lost their biggest argument to govern: that the voters in the indies electorates want the indies to back them.
i find it so odd in Shanahan’s article that he hasnt pointed out the big shift since the last indie seat poll. Coalition has gone from 54-34 to 39-47. That’s a 15% drop, with 13% of that going to Labor. This is a BOMBSHELL poll surely?
confessions, my best guess would be they wanted to wait to see how the week panned out, and since their side appears to have lost hope, put it out today, and not make much of the massive shift to Labor
If ALP wins and Libs in oppo, who are their leadership contenders? If they go with Abbott, Robb or Hockey those 3 are conspirators in the GBBH (great big black hole). ALP should be able to hammer them for the next 10 years. Just repeat the mantra.
RNM what beautiful karma given that is what Howard did to Beazely
RNM1953 – exactly. Those three have been financially neutered.
Never again will they be able to say anything on economics without being reminded of The Hogwarts Incident.
1. I assume because polls haven’t been officially declared. Though there may be challenges (and, as happened in Q 1995-6, by-election/s called) and a Green & an Indie have shown their hands, Declaration marks the election’s official end. The 3 Indies who decide who governs now know the polls’ official state.
2. In previous state “hung parliament” elections, letting the declaration period play out has proved revealing, even when no by-election was in play:
* In Q 1996 (by election) & 1998, both resulting in hung parliaments with Indies, pressure/ threats seem to be counter-productive
* If the Kennett Gov were still “in with a chance” after Vic election 1999, it big-mouthed & heavied itself into Opposition during the month’s Waiting
* In this year’s Tas election, Liberals’ loudly & aggressively trumpeting their moral “right to govern” after the result did not play well
3. The Waiting can produce “deal making/breaking” information.
Federal Waiting 2010 has seen Liberals’ repeat the “moral right” claim, outbursts from Nats & Lib, public abuse of Greens-ALP deal and Wilkie’s choice, and attempts to verbal Indies into backing them, most ludicrously on Friday.
It produced what might prove to be “deal making/breaking” information which could alter the election result if the nation were forced back to the polls:
* the truth about the Coalition’s budget/ electoral platform costings, which broke their own Charter of Budget Honesty
* a blatant & inappropriate $1 billion “sucker-trap” bribe to Tas Indie Wilkie to build a hospital costing less than 70% of that, delivered without going through “due process”
4. The Waiting allowed Indies to consult widely: interviews with & written submissions from both parties, with treasury, with individual Ministers.
They’ve presented, refined and represented combined & personal “want” & “wish” lists.
They’ve uncovered the Coalition’s $7-11 billion “black hole.
* The nation learnt that at least one Indie was offered an outrageous $1 billion bribe, without indicating how it would be funded and what cuts to which projects would be made to fund it. It circumvented due process. From this one could only guess what was offered to Katter, Oakshott and Windsor.
5. Today’s Newspoll, conducted Aug 27-29 (last weekend), before this week’s “black hole”, $1billion bribe, and much of the Coalition’s “dirty tricks” campaign were revealed, already showed a swing back to the ALP.
IOW: Federal Election 2010 “Waiting”, in which the L-NP repeated the Kennett government’s & Tassie Opposition’s big-mouthing mistake, also uncovered significant problems with the Opposition’s fiscal accounting, “budget honesty” (despite the Charter) willingness to suspend “due process” to fund “sweeteners” (aka bribes) to win an Indie’s support whilst preaching “fiscal restraint”.
Hope this answers your question.
Let me be the first to claim it that:
A Wilkie is a pork barrelling that doesnt bring home the bacon because the pigs fly”
One of big factors that the MSM has decided to ignore is the impact that the leader’s personalities and negotiating skills will have on the decision. Wilkie was clear that Abbott was very light on detail (something he is well known for) and willing to splash around the cash, whereas Gillard tried to fit his demands against existing commitments and processes.
Given the indies have dumped on Abbott twice re his costings (refusing to release then the released costings), re his threatening MPs’ phone calls, and re their fake constituent calls to their offices, I cant wait to see the avalanche of the dumping if they back Gillard on Monday
I hope Labor weave Tone’s Great Big New Black Hole into its own narrative of economic management. The coalition can’t be allowed to get away with this, for the simple reason that it involved the deceit of voters, whether intentionally or otherwise. Shame.
Maybe they did, but that doesn’t make good copy – “CONTRITE BEVIS THANKS BRANCH MEMBERS FOR THEIR HARD WORK AND SUPPORT”
[Mike Carlton pitches in and reflects on Peter Andren and the Indies
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/its-dark-ive-upset-my-bagman-and-im-down-to-my-undies-20100903-14ubw.html
Thanks BH, that’s a very worthwhile read!
That will only happen if Labor and its campaigns aren’t still run by a few ex-union hacks who can’t comprehend any policy issue other than Workchoices. I am no fan of Workchoices, but, because it also represented a threat to the union movement itself, as well as worker’s rights, unionists have a disproportionately high degree of importance attached to it. A focus group of union mates won’t help see past this myopia either.
Apparently Rudd Removal turned Asian voters off LAbor in Sydney.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/a-disaster-of-labors-own-making-20100903-14uff.html
My sympathy goes to our cuz across the Tasman for the 7.1 earthquake affecting Christchurch and surround.
chinda
A good question. In my experience not too many branch members cultivate friendships with journalists, so that leaves Arch himself as the prime suspect.
confession i think the biggest lesson is that Labor cant afford pardon the pun to lose another campaign as they did in 2004 and 2010 on the economy. they need to spruik their record relentlessly. Quite apart from the Rudd deposing/instability factor, the Liberals “$100m a day debt” was very effective, even to the point of bunting at polling booths “today, Labor has borrowed ANOTHER $100m”. THis would not have gotten traction had Labor had the courage to utter the word DEBT and explain why it was necessary. In fact, I only heard Gillard’s “100,000 income and 7,000 credit card” analogy in the last days of the campaign.
Labor have been wimps in the fight on the economy, and the black hole is the great opportunity to lift their game in this regard. And the ironic thing is if they had won a majority, we would never have known the extent of the black hole.
I actually think the Gillard can make the minority government work and it is an exciting opportunity. It may help Labor have backbone on issues such as climate change, gambling reform, and of course parliamentary reform. Gillard has seemed up to the challenge. Abbott has been petulant and seeking another poll.
Hoping that the final 2PP goes Labor’s way. I think the “illegitmacy”, “we wuz robbed” arguments from the opposition and the MSM will be mammoth. The world’s biggest ever dummy spit
And confessions, remember it is Hockey’s black hole if he takes over.
OzPol Tragic@110 …
Nice summation – hope it’s true!
You could possibly add one more:
6. It gave time for a “mood” to be established in their own electorates. Let’s face it, these guys all want to be re-elected next time, and even the biggest margin can be eroded in a single term – so they would want to find out which way the wind was blowing in their own electorates before deciding.
If so, the latest polling should be enough to guarantee their support for Labor – they can now claim to be following the wishes of the majority of own electorates, as well as the national interest.
I can’t really see how they could decide anything else and retain their credibility.
I agree Andrew. It was as though Gilalrd and half the Labor campaign team don’t know any more about economics than Abbott does. Hmmm, I wonder?
The constant reference to Hockey’s black hole leaves me with a mental image that makes me nauseous.
Spot on Oscar. The latest Newspoll is the final confirmation they need.
You have to wonder though why the coalition, having made up ground in the polls, going into an election which they were going to fight on the economy, didnt bother to get their costings in order and submit to Treasury?
It appears that they never intended to and they were behind the leak which was just a lame excuse. Do we blame Abbott’s focus on the politics not the policy, the laziness re the economy and policy detail?
One thing is for certain, if they lose this one they STILL wouldnt have learnt any lessons from two losses
I don’t think you would have to be a friend of a journalist to get that story up. I could thin k of any number of reasons why a branch member would leak that.
Socrates, if Labor scrapes through this they need to accept that the campaign was a complete failure. They may want to blame the leaks, but it wasn’t only about the leaks, it was absolute failure to fight on the economy. They also need to accept that you should stick by a leader even if the polls turn, but I’m sure they wont learn that one.
Ticker Headline on Slynews, Two new polls show voters want the Undies to support Labor. What is the other one apart from Newspoll?
It must gall Arch to have lost to a Gambaro, these people can’t even run a nice restaurant..their Caxton street seafood restaurant has been an object of ridicule in chef circles for years.
William 49
Yes, plugging in their “last” newspoll numbers at the top of their page
(Coal 43.4, Lab 36.2, Oth 20.4)
you get (suspend mathematical disbelief please)
Support Coalition from majors supporters = 43.4*.92+36.2*.02=40.6
Support Labor from majors supporters = 36.2*.93+43.4*.02=34.6
Uncommitted from majors supporters = 43.4*.06+36.2*.05=4.4
Then assuming the others supporters supply the rest of uncommitteds
Uncommitted from others supporters = 14-4.4 = 9.6
Thus we are left with 20.4-9.6 = 10.8 others, let’s assume they split 50-50
Support Coalition from others supporters = 10.8*.5 = 5.4
Support Labor from others supporters = 10.8*.5 =5.4
This gives us – Support Coalition Minority Government = 40.6+5.4 = 46%
This gives us – Support Labor Minority Government = 34.6+5.4 = 40%
William is right, the “voting intentions” in this latest newspoll (which surely they must have asked, like I’m sure that Ogilvy one in the SMH must have also) must be really bad to produce a 47-39 result the other way.
If they had given the “TPP” support splits it would beeen easy to calculate exactly and it would have given the game away.
Finns
it was telereach
they rang me on thursday
If the indies choose Labor then it is not a failure. They were heading for defeat big time just months out from the election. To actually be in this position now, with a good chance of still governing, after dumping a first term PM and the leaks and the “disasters” to be frank will be a great achievement.
Look above at William’s comments.
rocket, they didnt have a 2PP on their last indie seat poll, so I dont think there is a conspiracy there. But it is likely the OO had theses results Wed, and sat on them until today. It is also likely that Shanahan has deliberately played down the “BOMSHELL” of this poll, the massive swing to Labor in who the indie voters want them to support from 34/54 to 47/39
Gary, the campaign was a failure. Labor took a 2-4% lead into the campaign and lost it. If Labor doesnt get this, I will be very disappointed
Hmmm. You’d have to say, that on the back of Great Big New Black Hole, Labor should be able to win a new election easily, on grounds of trust and more transparent governance. No wonder the Abbottariat have given up on trying to engineer a re-election.
When I get back from work (minimal fortunately) this morning I’m spreadsheeting this newspoll thing using (I think from memory) diophantine equations.
Seriously, though, why didn’t The Australian just give us those raw numbers?
excuses (feel free to add suggestions)
Added to the black hole confessions is that the opposition dont trust Treasury, even after a process that excluded the government. You cant run the country if you cant trust the treasury. Simple
Rocket, um, if may just be that the numbers have gone from 34/54 to 47/39 for Labor. Shanahan has done a great job in kind of hiding this?
that would make a nice campaign slogan
That reminds me, apologies if I missed someone else commenting on this (I haven’t seen it), but I notice that for the past 2 days, Slynews have been running a ticker headline that says WTTE “Coalition says that Labor-Greens alliance is a threat to private school funding”.
I haven’t seen or heard them saying this anywhere else and have been expecting the media to run with this.
Has anyone heard them trumpeting this line and where did you hear it?
Hmm, this looks like a last minute pitch to get the redneck support.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/09/04/3002514.htm
chinda, havent heard that line, but God I hope its true. And that middle class welfare is finally tackled
Frank, the opposition has STILL not realised that the campaign is OVER. They have priorities the public campaign over the private campaign to win over the independents
And that’s the other galling thing about the campaign media scrutiny. When Robb, Hockey and Tone were all carrying on about Treasury, leaks and how they couldn’t trust them to cost their policies, nobody bothered to ask any of them who exactly they had in mind for implementing their policies if they won government.
The media really do have to have a good hard look at themselves.
Change “can’t” to “won’t” and you’ve got something there. Otherwise it sounds as if Treasury might have the problem.
confessions, I can guarantee that the MSM will NOT learn from this. The only reason Abbott was able to get to polling day with his costings hidden, was due to their support. Imagine if in the last few days the costings fiasco had gotten the same blanket negative coverage that the leaks did in week 2. I think it could have swung the election to Labor.
Even if they chose to swallow the “leak” excuse hook line and sinker, there was certainly enough info in the public domain of holes in the NBN, education rebate and veteran’s indexation to show the dodginess of their figures.
As with the issues with Rudd, the MSM will simply blame Gillard for not selling herself better. Reform of media ownership laws is the only away to tackle this problem. Oh and sacking the ABC board
Does anybody know anything about Ms Cotsis?
Of course, Gillard also could have spent the last day on the coalition’s costings black hole(s) rather than the silly and panicked, WC is back on Monday line
Aren’t readers of The Australian meant to be smart, well-educated people? It s one thing to push an agenda but to shamelessly try to con your audience backfires eventually.
I think the average reader of The Australian sort of rolls their eyes over its whacko-land approach to reporting politics, and focusses instead on the many other strong points in the paper — especially the arts, lively general news reporting and so forth.
@Andrew 144
I don’t think the coalition is fighting this campaign any more.
They’re now fighting the next one.
Goshome, the headline, had the poll shifted the order of magnitude it did to the coalition would have been “SHOCK POLL: COALITION SUPPORT SURGES IN INDEPENDENTS’ SEATS”
Andrew 134
I think you might have misunderstood what I was doing. The 47-39 stuff comes from a national poll (55 seats) despite their misleading headline. So as we weren’t given voting intention data I used the last national data they published (the one that gave TPP 50.2-49.8 on election eve). I used that because the two Essential Polls have been 50-50 since the election so I thought it could be a reasonable starting assumption.
But using that as a starting point you get Coal 46-Labor 40, so clearly that starting point must be way out – I think William says the true TPP must be in 54-46 area favoring Labor.
rocket youre confusing the 2 polls. The Newspoll is the indie seat poll, the JWS is the 55 seats
Thanks Oscar,
Given that QAL’s distributed in all 3 Rural Amigos’ electorates (esp Oakshotts’ & Windsors’) I’m adding a couple of articles from Q Country Life which may be influencing their decisions as I type:
Today’s Front Page The 3 Indie Amigos & issues feature prominently.
This one for Greens & greenie elements in the ALP and Libs who 2nd/ 3rd preference them: Greens [Larissa Waters] pledge to honour farmland protection commitment
And on the emerging cola-seam gas industry Well, well, well – report links CSG to aquifers This report concerns the Condamine Alluvium; not only one of the most important freshwater aquifers in the State, as the article states, but the Darling’s above- & below-ground Headwaters, affecting both the River and the Great Artesian Basin; so what seems to be a SWQ problem with mining in the Surat Basin, affects all GAB areas shown on this map
We don’t know what Abbott has promised the 3 Indie Amigos; but he’s given no hint that he will rein in any miners; quite the contrary. Greens, on the other hand, have been actively involved, and the Q government has moved to quarantine that 2.2pc of Queensland … considered good quality agricultural land, and to reassess areas affected by GAB issues in the Condamine Alluvium & Surat Basin.
Ah yes! As I stated on PBer. The Abetz grassroots campaign has begun. His allies and most dedicated group are the Salt Shakers & some other religious fruit loop group.
When the campaign was waged against Turnbull, Abetz enlisted this group to storm Coalition ministers against Turnbull & the ETS.
He even gave them a draft letter to script their attacks. They were called to arms to deluge the news blog sites. The Punch outed one to warn the others.Their dedication brings results.
We need to be this dedicated to knock the Murdoch agenda for six.
I watched Tony Burke smiling last night when he challenged Prissie Pyne on the voting numbers. Pyne was banging on about the Coalition getting the most number and TonyB just said wtte ‘seeing that you consider Labor and the Greens are in Coalition then the total vote for Lab/Green far exceeds yours’. Cheeky, but nice!.
Chinda63 – Stephen O’Doherty (former Lib NSW pollie) was spruiking the ‘threat to school funding’ line a few days ago after Abbott said it. O’Doherty is, I think, head of the private schools Assoc and has a gig on Sky from time to time.
Dee, I’m going to claim that I was the first PBer who flagged that the coalition would wage a fake constituents phone call campaign to the indies, but I’m not scrolling through thousands of posts!!
I feel for journos like Laura Tingle and Peter Martin, who both warned their readers during the campaign that the coalition’s figures simply didn’t add up. Tingle tried to get info out of Robb, Hockey and Tone, but was either stonewalled or ignored. We all saw how Abbott handled pressers when they got sticky – he just walked away.
Unfortunately none of this was shown to voters through popular nightly news programs, and there was no concerted effort in the MSM to engage voters on the coalition’s costings, or Abbott’s avoiding scrutiny. Tingle is locked behind a paywall in a publication only the pointy-headed elites read, and Martin’s columns are pretty much in the same category, so their articles would not have been seen by the vast majority of the electorate.
Something needs to be done to break up the monopoly of media ownership in this country. Hopefully this new parliament will be willing to take on that challenge.
My understanding is that, despite his failings, there was no support for the removal of Rudd up until the RSPT really started to unravel and his net satisfaction ratings fell to about -20 and Labor’s PV collapsed.
The immediate factor was Rudd’s net satisfaction ratings. They were terrible and in free fall in the weeks leading up to his removal. What this means is that every time he appeared in public or spoke on any matter, more people were being driven away than attracted to Labor. Recall, the PV vote for Labor had fallen to 35%. In WA, Labor’s PV had fallen into the 20′s – the worst level ever recorded. QLD was trending in the same direction.
We have just seen that Labor cannot win with a PV of 38.5%, so they were going to take a complete hiding if they could not improve on 35%. The Government were certainly aware they would lose very badly on those numbers.
If Rudd had remained PM, there was a 90/10 chance they would lose every seat in WA and nearly every seat in QLD, and absolutely no chance that Victoria and SA could save the day. There was also every likelihood that Labor would have experienced a far bigger loss in NSW than occurred under Gillard. It was also plain to all that Rudd lacked the skills and the judgment to lead Labor out of this situation.
We can all be very certain that Labor absolutely did not want to dump Rudd just because they thought he had some kind of personality disorder and had become impossibly obnoxious in his dealings with his colleagues. They had been prepared to overlook these traits for 5 years and had put up with him. In the end, they decided to do it because the alternative was electoral annihilation.
Sacking Rudd caused a great deal of upheaval. That much is obvious. The media were supercharged by the story, and it opened a new line of attack on Labor by the LNP and created divisions among Labor’s supporters. It also greatly heated up the political atmosphere and precipitated an election at a time that was not necessarily of Labor’s choosing. And the campaign was often incoherent, clumsy and lacking thematic punch. I am sure it will become the subject of lessons in how not to run campaigns.
And yet, at the end of it all, Labor has done very much better than they would have had Rudd been allowed to remain as leader. There is absolutely no question about that. Gillard has all the promise of being a good PM. While she is certainly prone to errors, like any of us, hopefully she will not be another minor tyrant who will lead the Party into another electoral trauma.
I think she has shown great qualities of political courage in being willing to take on Rudd and try to rescue the party’s fortunes before they became completely terminal.
She should get a lot of credit for that. She has shown qualities of resolve, resilience, intelligence and temperament that are needed in a leader. I hope she can keep on finding these strengths for a long time to come.
Has anyone – to the extent possible – plugged the Opposition’s assumptions into the Government’s costings to see what happens?
I’m thinking conservative bias allowance, interest rates and so on.
confessions, I am pretty sure that Howard’s changes could be reversed, and that the parliament post July 2011 would pass them. The MSM were most certainly all singing from the Murdoch hymn sheet all campaign.
It was amazing how Abbott’s petulant behaviour, mentioned in various tweets, never made it into the news. I never saw him walking out of pressers. I also saw him kicking a football, filleting a fish, and driving a truck. And spouting his inane slogans, which, unlike Moving Forward, were very acceptable to the MSM
morning bludgers!
confessions
The media (Murdoch) has been explicit in its quest to bring down this govt. It all started with the insulation scheme and the BER. The narrative was that Labor was the worst govt ever. Rudd blah blah blah. Anyhow, all that sticks in my mind was that Abbott met with Murdoch when he became OL. It has been no accident that the media has not scrutinised the Libs. It took the result of this election and the indies to bring the sham that is the coalition into the light.
Thank goodness for small mercies.
briefly
hear hear!
You probably were. I think I posted something similar to this last night in light of the new wave of attacks on the indies, in particular Wilkie but am in no way claiming a thought of political genius..
The private enterprise media aren’t required to do anything in particular beyond abide by the bare bones of the law. In-depth, impartial, quality reporting without fear or favour is, however, the ABC’s charetered duty. And they failed.
Epic fail.
briefly, that second para is not a quote from me.
The mistake you’re making is assuming that Rudd would not have improved in the polling. And of course we now know that he asked for three months to do so.
How many times did we see Howard turn things around in a campaign? Rudd’s campaign/campaigning in 2007 was excellent and he would have had the benefit of experience and incumbency.
Instead it was like we had two opposition leaders trying to be PM.
Ticker on ABC News 24: “Pain says independents have more in common with coalition”. Er, wrong. The Indies are honourable men, acting on principle. For them to jump into the cot with the Libs would be an act against nature. Different species.
Scringler
forgive my ignorance. who is “pain”?
This whole situation calls for a rethink by regional voters. The NP has had it’s day despite being able to turn up a 20 year old representative in one of its seats. The old ‘tweedy, ‘ding boot, wool board tie’ thing is long overdue for burial. Farmers have approached the whole environment thing in an adversarial way by treating the ‘greenies’ as feral animals who could have no positive effect on their perceived world where men-are-men and women make scones.
A classic argument has been to denigrate anyone supporting National Parks as a danger to farmers because the parks represent havens for feral animals and a bushfire threat.
However if there ever was a truly honest appraisal of where both the greens and farmers are positioned, they are effectively after most of the same outcomes. Ignoring the nutters and dinosaurs at either end of the respective spectrums there is significant common ground that with level headed appraisal and a bit of good-will could see alliances at a political level (such as could come from the current federal situation) that would be extremely productive.
The sad thing is that personal prejudice and collective ideology on both sides have negated any progress towards the greens concern for the well-being of the environment and the farmers need for a stable and sustainable environment to maintain their livelihoods.
Truth is, I think a lot of us define ourselves by our differences rather than our similarities. Is this a basic human trait?
My hope is that the Indies go with labor, you never know what might happen!
who is Pain? And dont we care about the indie seat polls now they dont favour the coalition.
Whatever happened to the crikey rumour that ABC staff were going to come out against the Murdoch influence? Never happened
philmour, the Nats have done nothing but tow the Liberal line, including on Telstra. If they dont want to be wiped out by indies, they had better get out of the coalition
pain = pyne? A most apt description if so.
This is a big deal imho….and it points out the inadequacy of the Constitution when it comes to large-system environmental issues. Only the Commonwealth can handle issues of this scale. I hope it is high on the new Government’s agenda.
Enough of the Rudd-bashing. The media crusade (the likes of which we have not seen before in its ferocity and concertedness to discredit a sitting Prime Minister) so comprehensively trashed his reputation and policy agenda that the public, who are, it must be said, grossly manipulable by the all-pervasive mainstream media, inevitably went along with the prevailing trumped-up super-meme, resulting in the polling deficit numerics that caused the Labor Party to have to act decisively to remove him.
victoria….:)
confessions@160
This – along with the NBN, of course – is why Murdoch (et al) are so terrified of a successful Labor/Green alliance. It’s the worst possible outcome for them, and they will fight it for all they’re worth – quite literally!.
If you think their role in this election was nasty (not to mention their role in denying Rudd oxygen when he needed it, without which the machine men in the Labor party would not have been able to topple him) then just wait. If Labor wins, they’ll do their damndest to have us back at the polls in months.
Without Abbott of course, who will remain eternally unelectable.
Fortunately for the left, Murdoch and his ilk are like dinosaurs – currently very powerful and also very mean, but also headed inexorably for extinction.
Perhaps it’s no coincidence that it is likely to be climate change that wipes these dinosaurs out once more.
The Labor government (like the Obama government) have toyed with alternative media, but not yet really fully engaged with it. But that’s the real answer. It may be that the people who will decide on the next government (or perhaps the one after that) will never have picked up a newspaper in their lives.
And ABC24 will join SlyNews in appealing only to that end of the demographic bell curve whos average age is higher than their average IQ.
But first, we have to wait for the independents to come to the correct decision …
Cuppa@176
It’s not Rudd-Bashing – but the truth.
Had Rudd stayed – The Media and the Opposition would’ve gone Ten times as feral as they did – they had all the Lemon07 ads ready, all the dirt stories etc.
When Julia was elected – their entire original elecrtion strategy was made redundant.
Cuppa, we will never know how Rudd would have gone, but it is very dangerous to assume that the poll slum he got into would not had improved during a campaign. Why would the MSM/Libs push so hard to remove Rudd if replacing him with Gillard hurt the Libs chances??
Surely this is a hangover from the image of ferals matted turds for hair in teepies, smoking hooter and generally making a nuisance of themselves. Stereotype slightly but it is good to see the greens moving on from this.
Although there is a slight chasm in the social progressive/conservative ideology, farmers and conservationist have much in common, be good to see a more cooperative approach to land management.
Andrew I agree, they are for the most part an agrarian-socialist ‘rump’ and to hear my local member Alby speak about them they don’t belong in the coalition. Independents of the calibre of the late Peter Andren would be their best option because while ever the Nats are around the rest of the voting population are going to regard rural voters who keep re-electing them as dumb hicks just interested in protecting their rural lifestyles.
But Frank, they were just as feral towards her in the end. Question after question about Rudd and the leaks. She as hurt by the baggage of removing Rudd and Labor simply did not factor this into the equation
The only difference being that said demographic would not watch ABC24 in a fit. In fact any ABC channel.
Good morning
Very excited to read in the CM this morning that my electorate (Moreton)has now become the second most marginal seat in Qld. Still very upset and embarrassed by the stupidity and ignorance of people in this state to just swallow TA’s mantra rubbish. But on the bright side, am very much looking forward to seeing PM Julia, not for another three years hopefully, visiting on many occassions and hopefully getting to see her. I got polled for the first time this year and wonder what goodies we can expect next time around.
Frank @179 that was my reading of it as well.
hmmmmmmmm
Blackdog,
I think our local member is not very impressive, his list of first term achievements doesn’t amount to a lot (one intersection upgrade was it?) and if he wishes to remain he will need to up the pace IMHO.
Gweneth, I agreed at the time, but Labor simply underestimated what rolling Rudd would do in terms of tarnishing the government’s pre-Rudd record, losing the benefits of incumbency (particularly Gillard going so quickly to the polls), and the effect that the “knifing” would have on voters views of Gillard, especially in Qld.
They simply got rid of Rudd as if that would solve the problem. They did not think about the problems that it would create
meant pre-Gillard record of course
Andrew, given changes to ABC & SBS boards in the next 1 months, and that Fairfax is more even handed than NewsLtd papers, just MSM may no longer reflect Oz media coverage. We, as yet, have no idea how the public broadcasters will change if Gillard is returned; but there’s been more a whiff of disgust with the Coalition as The Waiting continues. There may even be a return to more ABC rural coverage as Rural Indies wield more influence, and a return by SBS to its original charter.
If Gillard forms government, even NewsLtd, minus its influence on public broadcasters, and with ABC News24′s competition -and the public disgrace of Rupert’s Anointed One (Abbott) over costings, bribes & verbal abuse of Independents (as well as th ALP & Greens) – may become more even handed.
There are also external factors at play in NewsLtd’s “behaviour” (for want of a better word), including long-term Melbourne Storm fallout. Rupert’s venerable The (London) Times is becoming a major financial loss – about a million quid every four days; that’s around 90-100 million a year! Paywalling Times Online has, so far, been a resounding belly-flop. That UK Election10 resulted not in a Conservative win, but a coalition with the anti-Murdoch, pro-Guardian & Independent SocDems, may change the electoral system, as well as stymie whatever he had planned to reduce the BBC to a cypher.
Unless the government changes, Oz media might present a very interesting year of observations on how it handles the new realities of falling Murdoch influence, the impact of Greens & Indies on the national government, and how the Coalition changes to reflect new realities.
I think we have all learned since little kids that telling a lie often will not turn it into truth.
‘Briefly’ has not learned this lesson. However this is not surprising as he declared his anti-Rudd stance long before the knifing occurred.
I guess I will have to restate the facts so that the Briefly/Arbib NSW Right meme doesn’t sort of become as a taken.
Rudd’s polls were higher than many a PM before him, Rudd’s polls were at such a level that barely a PM had ever lost from that position. Rudd’s polls were trending upwards.
On the polls and just as importantly by historical examples Rudd was very unlikely to lose that election.
Gillard did not show courage, it takes no courage to greedily grab power because you can, this is called selfishness, dishonesty and disloyalty.
I have to wonder if you lay straight in bed at night. Gillard’s act was, as is obvious to most by now, a selfish one unrelated to the welfare of the party. She took the chance that the nature of her power grab would be offset by the hunch that since she would be the first female PM, and that would give her enough votes to overcome any negative impact of her act.
It didn’t, many people saw through her and saw that it was pure selfishness and linked to the faceless men of the Right (the destroyers of NSW Labor).
She took Rudd’s 52/48 with an upward trend, and reversed it, crashed it to 50/50 with a downward trend.
So let me reword that sentence at the top to more accurately reflect reality.
Gillard and her Labor Right cabal knifed Rudd for selfish and factional reasons. Then commenced to make a total mess of everything. Dog whistling to xenophobia, adopting Howard’s (previously abhorrent) Pacific Solution and abandoning CC policy to the previous decade.
She was performing so badly, in so much trouble, headed for a likely defeat, that she had to go cap in hand to Rudd for his help to save her. That Rudd did this wholeheartedly is a credit to him, and that he has worked hard to win of the indies is also testament that he is a much bigger person than Gillard.
It is simply this. Gillard and her faction knifed Rudd for power and in doing so almost snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
One thing that really shows the character of Gillard and factional team is the way they went about smearing Rudd for the previous 12 months to undermine him, the way they went about smearing him to death after knifing him in order to legitimise Gillard AND the way they then went about blaming Rudd when they almost lost the election because of what THEY did.
Those in adoration of Gillard should reflect carefully on her character.
Now I realise this is essentially a blog taken over by ‘Labor or nothing’ and that any retelling of the actually facts that make her look a bit dirty is abhorrent.
But a slap in the fact touch of reality really needs to be laid on a few here who obviously realise they need to rewrite history to legitimise Gillard.
Tough
zizek, that would make 2 conservative hacks. Isnt there only one conservative hack’s chair on the panel?
Andrew@183
Only because they wanted to destroy him in an Election Campaign – they thought that Labor were going to stick with Rudd as leader – when that failed they decided to do a double whammy, paint him as the victim and use him to attack Gillard.
You can mark my words that those parents of the dead Batt workers would’ve been wheeled out at EVERY opportunity, along with a few workers/firms who lost their jobs cos of the scheme being axed.
Jon
I agree. Not very impressive at all. I was watching QT when he made that stupid statement about Ivan Milat (can’t exactly remember what he was comparing to), then had to apologise. Have never seen him or heard from him until a couple of weeks. He will have to pick up his game.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/7880113/liberal-hopes-fade-as-kingmaker-call-looms/
In the West Online this morning…
Thomas Paine@192
Give it a rest – we all know you are wRONg.
Pity your mate Abbott managed to screw up his chances at getting the top job.
TP, I wondered how long it would take for the conversation to flush you out! Whilst you will note that I agree with you about Rudd being replaced, you are placing too much blame on Gillard. She had not coveted the job, and as the leaks showed, was trying to broker a deal for Rudd to stay. She seemed reluctant to put her hand up.
True, Andrew, we will never know how he would have gone had he remained leader. One thing we DO know, as empirical fact, is that he is a brilliant campaigner. He put in an innovative and faultless campaign against Howard in 2007. Kevin Rudd deserves the esteem of every Labor supporter for that masterpiece and outcome alone. But even more than that, after he was abruptly dumped, after he came out of hospital after major surgery, he put understandable disappointment to one side and continued to campaign for Labor, in marginal seats, in Queensland seats, in his own seat of Griffith, and at the Labor Party’s official campaign launch function. To this day he remains a solid team player, demonstrated by his entering into discussions with Bob Katter to induce him to come on board. I dips me lid to him. A true hero, the victim, fundamentally, of a feral, partisan, groupthinking media.
Scringler @ 169
“Ticker on ABC News 24: “Pain says independents have more in common with coalition”. Er, wrong. The Indies are honourable men, acting on principle. For them to jump into the cot with the Libs would be an act against nature. Different species.”
I presume that was a typo, and “Pain” should have read “Palin”.
Frank, we all acknowledged here that Rudd made a big mistake in his mea culpa on the insulation scheme. It was the beginning of the end for him. The insulation had been fitted, national standards introduced, significant reductions in the rate of fires (thanks Possum). He should have defended the scheme and the stimulus vigourously
heard the black dwarf on the radio yesterday espousing how conservative the indie electorates were, and how bad retribution would be if they went with JG
I though Rupert had kicked him off the payroll?
Andew @ 120:
Voters will ultimately tend to look more to the future than the past. That is, they’ll think “what will Party X do for me in the future” instead of “what has Party X done for me in the past”.
I dunno … maybe the ALP should have faced the question of the 2-speed economy in a more head-on way. The economic growth rate stats which came out last week showed QLD grew by only 1.6% last year vs. nearly 6% for NSW, VIC & SA. And of course, QLD is where the ALP got really hammered.
Maybe the ALP should have openly acknowledged that yes, the QLD economy was doing it tough but they were going to put in specific policies in place to help economic growth in QLD ?
Allaying misgivings over the MRRT might have helped as well, possibly by showing how the money raised would have flowed-back into QLD ?
Rudd handled the whole situation with aplomb. Why can’t some on here do the same? As he, himself said, forget about his demise. We must stick with the party which is bigger than any one person.
I have my own thoughts on Rudd’s demise but will not discuss them until there is an election result.
Ocsar @ 178:
Perhaps in the long term, but I remember William posting some polling earlier this year (Essential maybe?) that showed media consumption. Hardly anyone reads ‘new media’, and the ABC was the most trusted news source.
I think the problem for Labor in spruiking its economic credentials during the campaign was that the Reserve Board rates meeting fell in the middle of the campaign. Labor was fearful that an interest rate rise would be seen as a contradiction of Labor’s claims. The general population is economically ignorant and would only see a rise in interest rates as a bad thing for them personally and therefore look for somewhere to vent their anger. The incumbent government telling them how good they are with the economy would have been the natural target.
However, by the time the rates decision was announced, the coals had had enough time to settle in an economic fear campaign and Labor was always coming from well behind in this issue.
Lesson to learn – call the election just after a favourable Reserve Bank interest rates announcement.
A veiled threat no doubt!
It’s Time@206
Unfortunately calling thr election later than it did would’ve clashed with Footy finals and School Holidays – oh and imagine voting in Melbourne on a day like today – plus the fact that the Opposition and Media would’ve run the mem that Gillard was scared to face the people.
To restate what has been said on here many times. The ALP are crap at promoting their successes.
On the other hand the Coaltion are very good at selling their successes as historical landmarks & their failures as successes.
Victoria, I initially read it as Palin. Had a real WTF moment!
And I don’t know who Pain is either – unless someone’s had a Freudian slip with Pyne.
Would it be Thomas Pain?
Ahh Noel Pearson doing his best to endear himself to the Libs.
[LetUsRejoice
Noel Pearson lambasts Labor’s failure to ‘articulate its reason for being’ http://ow.ly/2zo0D #auswaits half a minute ago via HootSuite
TP,
Very good post.
The systematic demonisation of Rudd by many Labor supporters has the whiff of those photos of Stalin with opponents carefully airbrushed out. Apparently, the new truth was they were never there.
It’s interesting that the only resolution to the “problems with Kev” was the solution that enabled the plotters to scale the greasy pole of political ambition.
History is usually written by the winners. It’s good to have your passionate and forensic analysis. If Labor doesn’t learn from history, they are destined to make the same errors of judgement again.
“This would be a highly vulnerable Labor government. Indeed, the risk for Gillard or Abbott is that victory is a poisoned chalice.” Paul Kelly
Which PB predicted this?
pedant @200
Pyne = pain, as in bum. “Palin” qualifies, too.
Greensborough Growler@213
Would you be saying that if Rudd WAS leader and Abbott had won in a Landslide ??
“Crickets”.
confessions@205
Yes, I agree with you that this is the current “state of play” – but the situation is not static, and this is why I said “the people who will decide on the next government (or perhaps the one after that) “.
Its those people who will never have consumed “traditional” media. Many of them are not even on the electoral roll yet – but they are all on Facebook (or whatever is the currently popular social networking site).
Also, what you say about the ABC was the situation before they completely trashed their reputation as being a trustworthy news source. I wonder if the ABC will ever fully recover from this campaign?
Also, I include PB and other blogs as part of the “new media”. This site is a much faster and more accurate source of news than just about any of the mainstream media.
sprocket, Milne’s argument is soundly defeated by the latest Newspoll. I look forward to him acknowledging this on Sunday.
Frank, I’m with GG. I cant see that Abbott would have beaten Rudd in an landslide. I think that Rudd would have narrowly defeated Abbott
Andrew@219
Sorry, but you are wrong – especially in WA, Labor would’ve lost ALL of it;’s seats – Guarenteed, same in Qld.
Andrew, what’s the bet Cassidy takes a wide birth with that one…
Frank Calabrese@220
Oh and see Briefly at 161.
This sounds plausible, if true it really sums up the ALPs problems talking up the economy , they never campaigned on lower interest rates (unlike Howard), and rising interest rates (to a point) are the sign of an improving economy .
Yes Peter I forgot, Newspoll has moved in the wrong direction for Cassidy’s liking. Funny how it was so important when it showed the Libs ahead 54/34, but no longer now its 39/47…
Frank,
Rudd actually had a track record of winning an election against the Libs. The factual basis of TP’s post is irrefutable.
The question is whether you believe Rudd could have won in say, October? My view, is that on balance, probably yes. Others differ and sadly, we’re never going to have anything but overblown opinions and rhetoric to bludgeon each other into submission.
I think it’s going to be one of those “head off, pumpkin on” debates from here on.
We’re now dealing with the reality of today. I think Gillard has clearly won the post election.
If the MSM reported the whole fiasco of costings adequately & the attempt to hoodwink the voters, the voters would be reminded that the old Howard guard are still there as tricky & as deceptive as ever.
The Rabbott was presented as ‘someone’ fresh. People need reminding that everything they hated about the Howard government is alive & kicking in the Coalition of today. The same cronies that supported serfchoices as the second coming, the same cronies that went to war on a lie, the same cronies who lied about Tampa, the same cronies who were involved in fraudulent documents to bring down a government. The list goes on & on…………………………..
And it appears the deception continues. It is evident that this mob & the compliant media must have an extremely low opinion of Australians?
I sympathise with the pain of the Rudd supporters – I was one – but all I can say is that while Rudd was good, Gillard is in fact better.
I had no idea when she took over that she would prove to be such a tough, uncompromising and dynamic personality. True, she wobbled a bit at first – but I think the “real Julia” thing was just exactly that – i.e. the moment she realized that she could do this job, and in fact could do it better than even her advisors and minders gave her credit for.
She hasn’t looked back since. Her recent performances have all been standouts – even though she’s obviously under tremendous stress.
I just hope she’s PM next week. I think she will be.
Sounds like wishful thinking to me.
But I’m sure we’re beginning to see NewsLtd’s meme if the Indies don’t succumb to its & the Coalition’s assault. That Newspoll, combined with reaction to Abbott’s black hole & Billion Dollar Bribe, would have killed the New Election campaign deader than a Dinosaur.
This discussion is going nowhere. We have to agree that we DONT know what would have happened. You simply CANT assume that Rudd could not have improved his position in the lead up and during the campaign itself. You CANT underestimate the effect that “the government has lost it way” and removing Rudd had on the incumbency factor.
If you use the argument that some are using, the Liberals should have dumped Howard in 2007 when Latham was riding high in the polls. And look what happened there.
My say thanks for the heads up on the fin review I got it wanted to walk to shop but weather is foul over here in Boganville but we only have a Murdoch oracle here & it’s crap.
Andrew, I will be especially interested to see how Fran spins the ” Big New Black Hole ” and there is no way that won’t come up in the agenda. After all, the Libs are the “legitimate” economic managers of the country.
Dee Howard lied about overboard not Tampa. He manipulated Tampa, no doubt
Andrew@229
Difference was Latham wasn’t on a leash and imploded. Abbott, on the other hand was on a tight reign by Robb and had a compliant media behind him.
Also Latham was under intense scruitiny as an Opposition Leader – Abbott wasn’t.
My one and only comment on removal of Rudd.I wasn’t an MP making a decision nor have I spoken to any MPs.
For this to have happened in such a short time frame and with such determination indicates that something was horribly wrong. Remember this wasn’t a 42-41 vote of Abbott over Turnbull. This was so decisive that Rudd didn’t stand. I can’t verify this but have heard numbers like 90 to 100 vs 20 or 30.All members would have been aware of the dangers/pitfalls and yet they still felt compelled to make such an important choice. Let’s leave it now. It is in the past. Who will be the next Lib leader? Concentrate on that and don’t succumb to the LIb stirring and baiting.
Frank, you conveniently avoid the benefits of incumbency against a flaky opponent comparison. And the fact that Rudd beat Howard despite the MSM.
155 Andrew
I don’t think I am – read the fine print under the question.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/majority-of-voters-in-their-electorates-want-the-independents-to-back-labor/story-fn59niix-1225914017626
If the Coalition does finish up in opposition which of them will come out of this undamaged?
And of them, which would be better than useless?
The readership of The Australian seems to be enigmatic. If you go by the various online polls they come across as rabid rednecks. However if you go by the responses to mumble’s daily article they appear a good mix of intelligent respondents, albeit identifiably at least centre right. I think the issue is as has been regularly said here, that The Australian is a paper with an agenda to be a player. I have purposely read it over the last year to detect some sort of balance but apart from pieces by Van Onselon(?), I can find none. However, again, if it becomes obvious the Coalition are dying in the water, I think you’ll find they will turn quickly. Paul Kelly’s article today is a good example of this.
TP, we all were hurt by what happened. Remember Russ was Lu Ke Wen to me and we both speak Mandarin. But the thought of Abbott with his insane and inane:
Stop The boats, stop the boats, stop the boats, had me stop Abbott at all costs.
Move on. Life is too short.
The Coalition have been so underhanded & deceptive on so many issues that one toilet roll would be inadequate on dot points.
RNM, IMO this was much more about the hatred of Rudd within caucus than any polling situation. If he hadnt been hated within his ranks, they would have stuck by him. See John Howard.
Russ = Rudd
Andrew@235
Two Words – Workchoices and Your rights At Work – plus Howard was facing his FOURTH term.
Mark Scott is taking a hammering in the comments – his article is a trifle sickening in its defence of the MSM and Abbott.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/09/03/3001302.htm?site=thedrum
No matter what we think about Kev beating Abbott or not the fact is that he has been true to his Party since his operation. He deserves a lot of credit for that.
On behalf of Glen – Bruce Bilson.
Re my above comment (238) I think George Megalogenis is a more fair journalist than most they have on staff. Some like Shannahan etc are well connected but I think they use that connectedness to skew the story.
But Finns, Gillard did not stop Abbott. He almost beat her. He won the campaign. And her 2PP was 50/50. At the time of Rudd’s removal it was 52/48.
We should move on now
Can I just make the point that if the media (yes, “the media” again!) had done their job and put the Rabbott and his right wingers to relevant scrutiny, the election wouldn’t have even been close. And that, regardless of who had been the Labor leader. Rabbott was allowed to get away with murder, to the shame of this country.
gebungalah, George M is a fraud. He was the prime candidate in the MSM to expose the coalition’s costings issues before the election and failed.
Mark Scott should really have a chat with Fran Kelly of RN. She is beyond bias.
the juxtaposing of Rudd and Stalin in the same sentence could remind some who were close to the action why events unfolded as they did. Even so, a well run campaign by a first term PM against an unelectable should have been a cakewalk (go the Pies)
Cuppa, Labor would not have had to change leaders had the MSM done its job from 2007, and highlight the government’s achievements and not blow issues such as batts and school halls out of proportion (it was school buildings by the way, many more classrooms and libraries than halls). Any poll movement against rudd or labor was trumpetted as the end of the honeymoon, and Abbott on the ascendancy. Any movement the other way was kept quiet
4 conditions of bias:
1. Unconsciously biased – biased and don’t even know it
2. Consciuosly biased – biased and know it
3. Consciously unbiased – not biased but have to work on being so
4. Unconsciously unbiased – naturally unbiased
Now where do some of our favorite MSM players fit?
BK
As a “democrat” (not the Australian or US Party) at heart, after 2007 I actually believed the Libs were in a not bad position to rebuild with JH gone. They have sadly taken a “politics over policy” route since then (possibly not unlike Libs 83-84, Labor 96-98) and really many of them will come out damaged.
BK,
Didn’t Donald Rumsfeld say similar things about knowns and unknowns?
@BK 253
5. Professionally biased – biased because they’re paid to be biased.
A fair point Andrew 249 re GM. My position is that they all squibbed it and this has a lot to do with self-censorship. That’s not good but there are many people in simllar situations at work where they know there will be a high cost paid to do the right thing. in my work I interact with people who acted as whistleblowers thinking they had legal and political protection, only to discover they had none. My real disdain is reserved for such as Laurie Oakes and for so many reasons i have not the space here to list.
Rocket they are still working on the basis that 2007 was a mistake. Unfortunately 2010 will not help them reflect and make positive changes
Oscar
the Fibs have been fighting the next election campaign since Sat night Aug 21st
BK, after i am Consciously Unconscious or was it Unconsciously Conscious
I find it incredible that “journalists” such as Crabb, having done everything to prop up Abbott, has the gall, even after the election, to defend him on costings. Unbelievable
Finns,
Depends. Was alchohol involved?
I am particularly disappointed in Annabell Crabb. I think a good mind gone to waste because she can’t make her mind up about a career in journalism or show biz.
GG, my son said it was the Comrade Stalin’s Vodka after the Babushkas have left
Until similarly disillusioned my pick of the bunch is Lenore Taylor.
Good one Oscar. No doubt inspired by Rupert.
Ah Lenore Taylor and red wine in a wintry night, i could live with that
Pain is pyne the right royal Pyne in the butt, my sick dry humour sorry ’bout that one
Van Oleson? in OO is an academic from Perth he wrote a biography of Howard I believe
I thought only PBers were ranters about the ABC – this comment by “Michelle” leaves us for dead.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/09/03/3001302.htm?site=thedrum
Get into your thick skull people. Crabby Annabell is not a journalist. She is a C grade Celebrity.
How can this be a quailitive poll is it segments and considers only those seats that fall within a 6% margin. Most of the ALP support is in electorates above a 6% margin.
I was thinking the very same thing myself, Punna!
Coalition scare campaign against the independents
I wonder if the coalition HQ sent out to their rural members “what to say” via email.
Would be ironical if they did.
TP, I was a Ruddite for a long time and defended him long after his decline in popularity commenced. I know for a cast-iron fact that there was no appetite for a change in the caucus; that the view was a leadership change would be de-stabilizing, distracting and divisive, as, in fact, events have shown to be the case.
Nevertheless, at the last possible moment, a clear majority of party came to the view that they could not win with Rudd. They certainly knew it would be close and rugged-going with Gillard, and that a loss was possible. But the people whose political futures were at stake – the caucus – formed the view that they had little choice and had to take their chances with Gillard.
It is very notable that this meant that a lot of key players, who had never supported Gillard in the past, changed their minds. For a moment, consider the risks involved: what would have happened to Labor’s credentials had the Gillard challenge failed? You can be absolutely certain that the caucus take these things very seriously. Every one of them is affected by these choices. You are quite mistaken in trying to cast the leadership change as being no more than a selfish power grab by one person. Were this the case, the challenge would certainly never have materialised.
I am not Rudd bashing now. On the contrary, I think it is time to stop bashing Labor over the leadership issue. The party made a choice – a wise one in my opinion – and as a result performed just well enough to be able to form the next Government.
It is indisputable that Labor made a series of costly errors in 2009 and running into 2010 as well; that the campaign by the MSM was very damaging; and that the leadership change was traumatic. But none of this alters the basic facts: to have any chance in the election, Rudd had to go. Events have proven the caucus made the right decision.
Arbib and Bitar will be modern day Labor heroes by the end of next week
The next Federal Election will be a double dissolution. The newly elected Senators will only serve a single half term
And Hawker too….for another brilliant marginal seats campaign.
Mark Scott once worked for the NSW Liberal Minister, Terry Metherell, and considered standing as a Liberal Party candidate himself…
http://www.abc.net.au/sundayprofile/stories/s1687585.htm
It’s hard for a person to escape their roots. As Carl Jung asked “What is the task of the second part of a man’s life?” And answered “To undo the first”.
Interesting in this article Kelly seems to praise and damn all at once. Still an underlying tendency to see Gillard as deceptive.
@280
Should have said, perhaps, Kelly admires, but has to take Murdoch/Abbott attitude towards any Labor politician.
briefly – entirely support both your posts on “power takeover”. TP can go jump.
Yes, from now on, Tony Abbott should be known as Mr Pork
On the menu for the next Libs luncheon
A curious delay has occurred in publishing the results of the most recent Newspoll, when you take recent history as a guide.
Galaxy polled 600 voters on Tuesday 24 August and found voters in the three electorates of the rural independents favoured a Coalition minority government over a Labor minority government by 52% to 36%.
Results were published on Thursday August 26 – 2 days later.
Newspoll polled 1396 voters over Tues – Thurs August 24 to 26, in the same electorates, and found voters favoured a Coalition minority government over a Labor minority government by 54% to 34%.
Results were published on Saturday August 28 – 2 days later.
Newspoll polled 1134 voters over Friday to Sunday August 27 to 29, across the nation, and this time found voters favoured a Labor minority government over a Coalition minority government by 47% to 39%.
Results were published on Saturday September 4 – 6 days later.
A curious delay indeed.
thanks lizzie….:)
Ari, if the results have been 47% Coal 37% ALP, it would have been published in 6 mins.
“The Great Big New Banquet”
Menu
Starters…Pig-in-the-Hole
What a pity Paul Kelly is constitutionally incapable of applying the same nuanced assessment of any Coalition/Abbott approach to the business of Government …
Not in my dreams, PY!! Gorn, gorn and gorn from any further campaigns.
Paul Kelly
The P is for pretentious, working n the other letters/
On the other matter, I donlt know why you’re all so worried – I’ve had a sleep so Tone must have lost.
Against the prevailing gale of opinion on this Blog, I’m going to say it…
I enjoy Annabel Crabb’s articles.
She writes well. She writes entertainingly.
She takes a offbeat slant on her approach to politics.
What’s wrong with that?
People who are saying, for example, that she is denigrating Wilkie because he sells rugs really have no sense of irony/humour.
The only problem is that if you turn to The Drum for serious, anaytical articles you get too many Right-leaners, so I suppose people are looking to Annabel to support the so-called Left.
I don’t think that was why she was employed.
analytical.
I think you’ve been smoking the crab appples
Yes, VERY curious – and no doubt a very disappointing result for Murdoch’s rag.
I think it is very telling that this emphatic support for a Gillard government over an Abbott one occurred before any of the following happened:
1. The coalition’s costings were revealed to be a con job
2. The Greens and Labor formalised an agreement.
3. Wilke came out in favour of Labor.
As William says, the Newspoll result suggests a sharp fall in support for the coalition as at last weekend, so what would that support be down to now?
Labor has nothing to fear if the end result of all of this is a new election.
.
Labor have nothing to fear except themselves – unfortumately, on past evidence that’s a lot.
The Crabb’s fawning twitters over the Rabbott did it for me. Oh, & this take on the Rabbott not being able to help himself, he is just soooooooooooooooooooooooo honest, makes me puke.
I guess we’ll all know by mid-Tuesday.
Perhaps the rumours about Crab Apple and Three Boats are right?
#97
NOT allowed under Saint Arbib and Saint Bitar.
161 – Briefly, the latest polling in the SMH has the Labor primary vote back in the mid thirties right were it was under Rudd, only the 2pp is now under 50.
Maybe one day we will wake up to the fact that the problem was not Rudd nor was it Gillard.
The core problem for Labor is that a lot of blue collar workers, particularly in the states where the sun shines brightly simply no longer have any tribal affinity with the ALP.They will vote for it if a specific issue grabs them such as the gst or workchoices but other than that federal Labor simply no longer appeals to them.
Unless Labor can rectify this situation then this election is probably about as good as it gets when we don’t have a hot button issue like work choices to run with.
lizzie where did you come from? Crabb was employed by the ABC the Board of which is full of Howard appointed “favourites” example: the Head of the ABC – former Liberal worker, others include individuals & “journalists” hailing from well known “independent” business & Liberal Party established and funded right wing think tanks that also in some cases receive funding from certain well known right-wing (often extreme) think tanks in the US. Some University “Research centres are also like this. Know what you’re talking about I say. If you don’t believe I would be happy to give you all the full gruesome details.
284 Aristotle
“Curiouser and curiouser”
Dr Bogan
So its really a case of prejudices rather than bias.
I’d actually be grateful for more details vernulapublicus@gamil.com
I think an article on same might have more resonance, since claims of bias are always dismissed as subjective.
Sorry lizzie that was a bit impertinent of me
Umm, perhaps not so soon. A lot is going to depend on how Labor respond to the new situation.
We can already see the basics of new campaign against Labor……
Step 1….Assert that Labor is not a legitimate Government
Step 2….Assert that the LNP “won” the election
Step 3….Assert that the Labor+Green agreement is the result of a deception
Step 4….Assert that Labor+Green+KOW+W majority is unnatural/ inconceivable/ unstable/ extreme and practically treasonous
Step 5….Assault/ resist/ confront/ challenge/ defy the Government every day
Step 6….Threaten/ vilify/ isolate/ the I’s at every opportunity
Step 7….Try to propel the country to new elections on the issue of “legitimacy”
Labor is going to need smart and strong leadership and great teamwork in the Parliament and in the community. Maybe Arbib and the others can redeem themselves. Who knows. Labor in general have a lot of work to do to rebuild their credentials, knowing that the LNP are going to spend every minute trying to tear them down.
I knew you’d all get too excited.
I’ve been watching and listening to Annabel for a long time and I just think she enjoys injecting humour into situations. There is a level of light irony which I have noticed a lot of people (of all persuasions) just don’t understand.
Annabel loves anyone she can laugh at.That’s all.
Let’s face it, Abbott is eminently laughable (as long as you don’t cry).
Thats vernulapublicus@gmail.com obviously
lizzlie
I just think some things are too important for laughter.
Of course Labor has something to fear from an immediate return to the polls. The electorate is now confused and volatile, going in each direction like a weathervane in a fickle wind.
Better to win minority Government, strangle the source of bias in the ABC, legislate Murdochs malevolence out of the equation (there are ways), spruik its economic credentials and hammer Abbott’s economic snake oil, convince the electorate that the Chicken Little mantra of the conservatives to Climate Change measures is a fraud, reclaim the moral high ground on asylum seekers, placate the Chinese vote (though God knows what their issue is), wait for an auspicious moment in the political cycle, and then call a snap election.
It’s called lining up the ducks.
VP
Not so obvious. I thought you might be a mover and shaker here
http://www.gamil.com/
Dr Bogan
Apology accepted. I am definitely not a Lib troll. I hate those Rightwingers and their think tanks with unrelenting anger.
However, I can think for myself.
(here insert icon with sweet, smiling innocent face)
Please forgive a newbie’s ignorance – but who are the “OO” that are referred to by others?
Aristotle 284
Yes, precisely. As I said before, I suspect we may never see the 2PP behind these figures published separately either.
I liek Annabel Crabb’s writign too. I have not found her anti-Labor, in that by criticising the awful federal campaign, she only expressed the same view I had myself. And I didn’t vote for Abbott.
As for Arbib and Bitar, yes what a brilliant achievement! Only 16 seats lost while trying to get the most economically successful governmetn in the OECD reelected. Geniuses both. I think for a true measure of their skill, we shoudl recall how many marginal seat Labor MPs thanked them on election night for their efforts. How many was it again?
So that’s where all my fan mail has been going
I sent you an email just now VP
Oh, VP, how sad.
*Nothing* is too important for laughter.
for those with long memories
keating used the term
#120
I wasn’t aware that when Labor had control of the HofR and were leading 60-40 in the polls they had any appetite for “parliamentary reform”.
And it is just as dangerous to assume the poll slump would have improved.
Unfortunately Rudd had said many over the top things in the 2007 election. These were going to be replayed time and time again in ads. ‘All talk no action’ would have been the catch cry.
Stop looking at Rudd through rose coloured glasses. He has great skills in certain areas but, as has been mentioned many times here by some of those now claiming he did nothing wrong, he lacked in some areas and as it turned out, in some important areas.
Those very areas by the way that some say need strengthening now.
If that is Rudd bashing I will go he.
deewhytony
The OO is the Opposition Organ/Oracle also know as the Australian newspaper.
when the LNP is in government it is know as the GG – Government Gazette
So you believe Rudd would have done better?
Peter
What would have been the use with the Senate make-up that existed?
Gus, mine kinda like the goldfish
Fulvio 309
I agree. Just getting the ABC board cleared out and campaign finance laws reformed will help no end. Continuing to roll out the NBN will also hurt Rupert, as it makes competitors to Foxtell much more economic. Plus the economy is going to improve further, and the Coalition’s debt garbage will be even more obviously shown up as the POC it was. There is no down side to keeping in power (other than the entrenched corruption that goes with the NSW Labor Right).
To get back to the narrative …
ABC on ABC newsonline, 11.45 am
At the same time, ABC radio had the headline at 12 noon
Schizophrenic thinking, or not?
And currently undergoing another change to the RR**
RR** – Rabble’s Rag
finns
the hoi are the Dory of oz politics
i reckon a re-education campaign with very flush should do it
DemocracyATwork
The key feature in this prediction is the state of the Senate before & after 1 July 2010. An additional feature is that a DD will, almost inevitably, make the Senate more unwieldy, as Greens and Indies/ others are likely to increase their numbers at the expense of the major parties – just how expensive, and to what extent in the ALP & the Coalition, cannot be predicted at this stage.
Before 1 July 2010, Fielding and Xenephon are the keys to passing/ defeating or delaying bills in the Senate. If there’s a DD, Xenephon must recontest his seat (which he holds until the next Senate election), & he now has, in Wilkie, a HoR supporter on Pokies. What Fielding does may depend on the Vic Senate result. If he loses that, a DD means he loses a Senator’s pay & influence for whatever remains of his term. In addition, there are constitutional restraints on calling a DD, and a Senate may delay consideration of a Bill until the time for a DD passes.
Another consideration is that the Indies have indicated that the want the government to go the full term. In writing. A government would break that at their peril.
Of greater consideration, however, is the effect of an early DD on voters. Had the Coalition been honest about costings, refrained from big-mounted assaults & pressure on the Indies (especially when the ALP did not), and not offered Wilkie a sucker-bribe; and had the media done its homework on the Longman issue and uncovered the truth before going for the kill, the Coalition may have benefitted from a DD. Now, with polls swinging against them, calm heads (if the Coalition has any) would not want any sort of election in the next six months; by which the window for an early one might have closed.
After 1 July 2010, ALP + Greens control the Senate.
Oscar
re #227
I agree with you completely. I was shattered when Kevin was removed but since then I do believe that Julia has been outstanding. Cool under pressure and showing all the promise of being a very good PM. Something I must sadly say in hindsight Kevin was showing himself not to be.
If he had remained PM Kevin could well have led labor to a small majority victory. We will never know. What I do believe is the same problems would have remained. Central control of policy decision making, lack of consultation and so on and so on resulting in significant unrest among cabinet and caucus. Not good for strong policy decision making and stability. A situation I believe which would have resulted in a significant loss in 2013.
Kevin may be a great campaigner but how many times would six weeks of good campaigning be accepted by the punters if the previous three years were the same debacle as we have experienced in the last six to nine months? Labor has been a good government but some of the decisions taken recently and, just as importantly, how some of the decisions have been marketed has left me amazed.
With Kevin as PM labor would have lasted another three years max. With Julia as PM ( fingers crossed ) we now may see a stable long term labor government.
Don’t get me wrong. I think Kevin is a good labor man who will make a good minister. He was just not a good PM. Many people have underestimated the character of Kevin Rudd. As far as I am concerned he has shown himself to be all class. Even now he is still fighting the good fight and holding discussions with Katter. Not really the signs of a man determined to bring the party down.
Gus, maybe Mr. A Bot can do with some re-education camp. Ho ho Ho Ho Chi Minh.
Wow Bevis is really unhappy. What is it with rodents and PMs?
Lizzie – I usually enjoyed Annabel’s articles until she came back from the UK. She can still be entertaining but I’m yet to read the same breathlessness about Gillard that she finds for Abbott and Turnbull.
I would have thought that a socalled professional woman journalist would find something complimentary to write about Gillard – with Annabel, no such luck.
Abbott’s lack of honesty, his flipflops and his unethical behaviour over his costings mean nothing to Annabel because she is totally charmed by him. It has made her writings non events.
Thanks Lizzie
Ari yes I said this at the start of the thread. The OO sat on this poll from Wed it seems. Didn’t fit their narrative. And now it’s published they downplay the huge swing to labor.
She is employed as the ABC Chief Online Political correspondent. It is a serious position using tax payer funds to analyse politics. I think circa $250k a year salary. Her analysis is spurious and lighthearted when it requires serious considered analysis. take for example the piece yesterday on the costings. The coalition blundered big time on that. it was a scandale of monumental proportions to be out by such a magnitude casts serious doubt on credibility and trust worthiness. yet Crabbs piece make light of the error along the lines of everyone does it and secondly she mocks Andrew Wilkie as a rug salesmen. it was a serious embarrasment to the status of her role. leave the comedy to the true comedians. you are either a political journalist or a comedian make the choice.
Gary 321
You can’t have it both ways. If you say the problem was due to Rudd, then the election shoudl have gone better. If it was the manner of the Rudd knifing, then why go to the polls so soon? Why not give time for Gillard to get established? If it was not Rudd, or his knifing, then it was the campaign. The only other explanation is the disastrous ETS backflip and stupid Gillard “people’s convention” solution, which fooled nobody. If they were all such brilliant decisions, then how come Labor lost 16 seats? It is not a yes/no question. The ETS backflip, Rudd knifing, and lousy campaign all cost Labor seats. Blaming Rudd does not excuse the campaign.
Walk into a pub anywhere in Australia and try saying it was a good Labor campaign, and count the number of glasses of beers/laughter thrown in your direction.
Seriously, do you work in the Labor party organisation? I find your need to defend the campaign extraordinary. My friends all support Labor, but they all thought the campaign was awful, almost embarrassing.
BH the only thing more sickening than crabbs love affair with turnbull was how quicjkly and easily she shifted her love to Abbott.
She was reasonable prior to the 07 election . What happened?
Suck it up sweetheart, should got off his fat a## and done more for his local constituents.
Hear, hear.
I thought Rudd was a great PM for a couple of years and I thought, and still do think, he was very harshly treated by the MSM, but in hindsight (always very clear vision that) he had flaws like us all, flaws that came back to bite him on the bum big time. The party got him before the people did.
Peter, in a sense, you are right.
Labor did not have the courage or ruthlessness to use it’s powers of incumbency to push its personal agenda. Perhaps the GFC was part of the reason for this. Certainly the genius of the Labor Administration was its ability to make the right decisions at the right time to save our economy.
But I think that in doing so it abrogated (that word again) its responsibility to itself and to the electorate to ensure its re-election by minimising or destroying the power of its enemies.
The result could have been, and indeed possibly will be, that a corrupt, malicious, deceitful, indolent and vicious government will again be empowered to undo all the good Labor has done, and return us to the dark ages of a Howardlike nightmare.
Socrates, labor has to admit, even if only internally, that the campaign was pathetic. The MSM didn’t help of course.
But blaming the leaks alone or saying rudd would have done worse is denial worthy of the coalition
And I believe it did go better than if Rudd had been there. I reckon Labor would have lost seats in Vic and SA as well if JG hadn’t been leader. Can’t prove it but you can’t prove otherwise either.
I notice ‘slugger Milne’ has lifted his head from the haze he resides in. He has obviously been in shackles in some dark corner but Murdoch has decided the game is up and Milne is of no help to him so has let him loose. I will watch Insiders tomorrow as David Marr usually has verbal sport with the likes of Milne, who is a true Murdoch grub.
Abbott made clear on day one that debt would be a major issue. Gillard defended it on day 32
So why bother with such dysfunctional rubbish.
If Annabel Crabb is employed as a humorist then that should be made clear. I think her current title is online political correspondent for the national broadcaster. That is (or at least should be) a position of some import and she should decide to do that or be a comedienne. The roles don’t mix.
The ABC has made a fundamental mistake in allowing the lines to blur between host, reporter and panelist. It is of crucial importance to keep each separate.
Fran Kelly for example can either be a host who links stories or can provide her own opinions. She frequently editorialises in her segues – and that is very dangerous is it offers no right of reply.
I’d suggest the following concrete examples of at best very poor editorial judgment and at worse outright bias from the ABC:
The playing in full of mining company advertisements on current affairs radio at least three times (prior to the Labor leadership change).
The use without disclaimers of a Liberal Party linked PR company to provide supposedly independent commentary on the Brisbane Town hall meeting.
The playing in full on RN Breakfast of the matey exchange between Tony Abbott and a “member of the public” at Rooty Hill. The questioner had been identified the previous night as a young Liberal. This was not mentioned on the RN broadcast and the show chose that person from all the options to use up five minutes of air time.
The reporting on ABC online of the change in the 2PP vote last week without any reference to the AEC withdrawal of seats from the count, despite this being highlighted on the AEC site and reported by the ABC’s own Anthony Green.
The use of avowed right-wing columnists Andrew Bolt and Piers Ackerman on The Insiders with no provision of balance.
The reporting on its own website of supposedly Liberal bias with no reference to the survey author’s tie to the Liberal Party.
Any and all reporters or columnists used by the ABC should on each occasion declare pecuniary, familial or other interests just as, for example, a local councillor would be expected to. Such interests would not necessarily mean they cannot comment – but people should at least know of the links.
You’ve done this?
BTW, I don’t recall actually defending the campaign. I’m defending the action of removing Rudd. I think it was the right thing to do in hindsight.
OzPoll Tragic #328
It is highly likely that the next Senate election will have some form of optional preferential above-the- line voting; maybe following the NSW model.
Whether a half Senate or a DD full Senate spill, the implications of this change may be very significant for minor parties and perhaps the demise of the heretofore raging ticket preference market.
A shift in the paradigm for DDs?
Andrew – I agree. Annabel used to be a must read when she was at Fairfax. Gee I missed Matt Price through this election. He would have seen a lousy Labor campaign but he would have written in an entertaining but balanced way.
Bevis needs to sit down and work out why someone like Yvette D’Arth saved her seat and see where he may have gone wrong over the past few years. For the moment he should keep quiet and leave his musings for the internal discussion which needs to happen when things have simmered down a bit.
What a star of a bloke Tony Burke is – quickwitted but not nasty like Pyne. He shone last night on LL. He needs to be used more often.
Is Dennis Shanahan related to Angela Shanahan? I really can’t stand her.
How’s the sleep deprivation going VP?
Thanks to the folks who followed up my question @30 about the bookmakers and the rules and conventions surrounding forming a government.
If I follow you guys correctly, what happens next is the Parliament sits, a speaker is nominated by the caretaker PM, the speaker is elected and this may be seen as satisfying the rule that the PM has the confidence of the house. Presumably then the GG appoints a new government?
Or, have I missed the bit where Abbott raises a no confidence motion regardless?
From what I’ve read here, if a speaker cannot be appointed then where do we go next? Can Abbott propose a speaker at that point in time? Or does the GG have to sack Julia first, appoint Abbott as PM and only then can he nominate a speaker?
It is indeed possible, it seems, for a new government not to be formed (in they eyes of the bookmaker) before we end up with a new election. So then the question is, should the bookmaker properly declare the original bet null and void?
And there’s another question that arises. If Julia fails to get her speaker and this results in Abbott being appointed PM before he can nominate a speaker, but then Abbott fails to win the confidence of the house too – thus resulting in a new election. Does the bookmaker then claim that Abbott was made PM, however temporarily – thus settling all bets (and probably getting sued in the process).?
the biggest lag labor had in this campaign was the fact that both the fibs and MSM were ready to pounce
If anything the strategic bombing worked to help get the message out
the most glaring was labor having to hold off its policy till after the Res Bank
the fibs never really attacked labors policy,just spun the right slogan for the msm to run in their 6′oclock new
the politcal analysis was gotcha and leg cutters
analysis smanalysis
But before it’s known again as the GG, we can refer to it as the BM. Thanks to the BH. Know what I mean?
I should add that in criticising the Rudd knifing, I am not glossing over Rudd’s faults, or selling Gillard short. I agree Rudd was not a good consultor (peopel shoudl have known that quite well going right back to his time as head of the Office of Cabinet in Qld in the early 90s), though ironicaly, his decision making was excellent till he started listening to the panick stricken NSW Right in the wake of the Copenhagen failure.
Also, criticising the Rudd knifing, and the pathetic ETS people’s convention idea (shade’s of Howard’s Republic Convention), does not alter the fact that overall, Gillard is a skilled communicator and campaigner. But her credibility has been damaged in recent months, and she needs to show she will stand up for something other than finding overpaid jobs for Labor Right cronies if she wants to retain the votes of any voter not “rusted on”. A drovers dog can retain those votes.
Ask the others. I’m just responding to it because I hate to see history re-written.
If there is another election soon the unhinged one has nothing left in the locker to bring out. Julia, however, has so much new material to work with – along with an opportunity to better play the positives that were squandered in the campaign just behind us
And
But blaming the leaks alone or saying rudd would have done better is denial worthy of the coalition.
Gary were on the same team. It is critical that labor analyse every aspect of the last six months and learn from mistakes made
YES, the mea culpa tactic was a decision that Rudd made in his usual arrogant fashion, rejecting all advice from the “wise” party leaders. Rudd’s inability to work with people, and accept wise advice, was a character flaw that inevitably led to his warranted downfall.
Gary
Open dictionary. Read under “sophistry”. You are not a skilled exponent.
Your memory is playing up on you. Remember these words when I was criticising the campaign:
Sounds like a defence to me. You seem to want to split hairs in defending the Rudd knifing, and the Labor campaign. I am saying they were both handled awfully. That is why you lost 16 seats.
You still haven’t answered my earlier question: do you work for the Labor Party, or a politician, or in a union? Otherwise I have trouble understanding why you so desperately need to do this.
Socrates 354
Now that’s a post I can mainly agree with.
PEDRO, your viewpoint is common in the caucus, where they know they cannot take Labor votes for granted; that every issue has to be weighed up, calibrated and contested. This accounts in part for Labor’s seeming-ambivalence on so many issues: they have to try to maintain their tribal/ historical brand appeal and yet reach uncommitted or transient potential support, and they have to do this without appearing to be resorting to spin.
No-one says this is easy. But it is not impossible. The issues are certainly always alive – health, education, jobs, tax, interest rates, the cost-of-living, leadership, the environment, climate change, to name just the most obvious. Labor can regain its political dominance by demonstrating that it understands the issues and is serious about dealing with them. They have to get on the front foot and apply themselves with energy to accomplish practical results, and then they need to relentlessly sell their achievements. They can re-constitute their base. Labor has done this before and they need to do it again now. It can be done, but it requires good judgment, clear leadership, persistence, repetition, honest self-analysis and above all it is about persuasion.
Persuasion. It is becoming a lost art. Howard was an excellent exponent. So was Keating and so were Hawke and Whitlam. Labor need to actively show they believe in things and are prepared to argue for them. That should be a 3-course meal for every Labor MP, every day.
There is a useful ratio for Labor to employ. They should permit themselves 1 completely unrestrained assault on the LNP for every 3 positive pro-Labor messages….that would be a start..
So you won’t answer this?
BK the other thing that could happen with another election is that some of the extreme outcomes in Queensland would be sure to come back a bit. Knowing that their little game of cornering the Tory market is likely to produce more harm than good could cause a bit of a rethink.
Who’d have thought that voting Tory en-mass would ensure Tasmanian independents now have the right to restrict their gambling patterns?
The Queensland voters remind me of the time the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the silver market and that went well didn’t it?
The earthquake in NZ looks pretty serious.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/image.cfm?c_id=1&gal_cid=1502728&gallery_id=113677#7073400http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/image.cfm?c_id=1&gal_cid=1502728&gallery_id=113677#7073400
H&W aren’t they? Made for one another.
I disagree, Dr Bogan. IMO, they’re still fighting the election which terminated that Saturday Night. I haven’t heard one new idea, or one new anti-Green/ ALP slur since then.
No to all of those.
You make a strange point.
Are you actually saying that I need to work for the Labor Party, or a politician, or in a union to take an interest in politics?
So it is just Labor Party spin merchants who claim they have “superior” campaigning skills, particularly in marginal seat campaigns ?
This is getting funnier and funnier.
Looking at the article on Mark Scott (http://www.abc.net.au/sundayprofile/stories/s1687585.htm) mentioned earlier at I see he describes himself as :
“one of ‘God’s secret agents… trying to bring the light and life of Jesus into one of the most hostile parts of society, the media.’ ” ,
I guess this helps us to understand why he is so fond of Chris Uhlmann’s breathless indignation at anything that Labor do and perhaps even the fundamental hostility which “his ABC” seemingly has towards an avowedly atheistic Prime Minister.
I think you have overlooked my comment that I was responding to those who seem to think Rudd would have done better and not to comments about the campaign in general.
Socrates – 336
I feel pretty much that way. I am a green sympathetic to the ALP.
The change in leadership to me appeared to be designed to make the caucus more comfortable.
I don’t think that this worked. I also think that there is a lot more to it than just that.
Gary
More spin. Why won’t you answeer my questions? Too embarrassign? I conclude that you do make your living workign in the labor machine somewhere, since you haven’t denied it several times now.
To answer your questions specifically: I agree Rudd made some huge mistakes in 2010, including the insulation apology, adn far worse the ETS dumping. Yet I still think Labor would have done better without the knifing. If the knifing had been done more circumspectly, or a longer time had elapsed, maybe it woudl have been better with Gilalrd.
However whether Rudd or Gilalrd was PM, the Labor campaign was a typical NSW State level scare campaign on boat people and other secondary issues, that was inconsistent and dismally failed to present Labros strategy and economic credentials. It was a bad campaign. Did you watch Gruen Nation?
What you don’t seem to understand is that it is not about Rudd vs Gillard for me (and I suspect many others). I am not a “fan” of either. My main point is that the change was handled very badly, and so was the campaign. They both cost Labor a lot of hard working MPs in marginal seats. To me, that was a BAD outcome, because I actualy despite Tony Abbott.
Off to have lunch.
We’ll never know if Rudd would have done better. But we do know the problems that led to Rudd’s demise were the same ones that have plagued Gillard. Bad policy and bad politics due to making decisions based on what messages focus groups want to hear. When you start to make decisions just to keep focus groups happy, rather than because they are the right decision everyone soon works out that you don’t stand for anything.
The voters think Rudd and Gillard both stand for nothing. And their preparedness to do what Arbib/Bitar and their research tells them shows the voters are right.
At least if Gillard gets in, she will stop grovelling to false gods.
We’ve seen that one trotted out three times in Queensland recently.
They lost most of their Labor wards in the last BCC elections
They lost most of their marginals in the last Queensland elections.
They lost most of their marginal seats in the last Federal election
Helps us to understand rather more than that and at the risk of silly irony
OMG
No spin, I have answered your questions.
Read 368. I look forward to your apology.
I’m not defending him, but Mark Scott says he was quoted inaccurately. Read the article again.
Diog, what do you stand for? funny that diog, i’ve been listening to the Eagles’ Desperado this afternoon and it was about you:
They did it brilliantly in SA though.
Whoops . Actually Scott doesn’t describe himself in this fashion, but others have done so.
PY
My opinion is that the ALP are crap at promoting their achievements. The fact that they allowed the Coalition to dump on their successful intiatives without challenge throughout their governance is the failure. They had a terrific story to tell backed up by internationally emminent authorities.
Their PR is atrocious & that is more than this one campaign.
And that’s where we part company.
I should clarify it as State SA. They were terrible in the Fed election in SA. Pyne whipped them.
I knew you were a white hat, Rod
my 38 year old daughter and i had a long talk this morning.
this was her take on the election, labor should of gone to dd after the ets
a lot left center people like her where very dissapointed.
The refugees should of been processed on Australian show and so bit if the msm did not like it but our base would have/
the campaign was too controlled Julia should not have said look this is the new me as people who work and only see small amounts of tv had noticed .
some slogans should of hammered the economy these days people dont here a long speech i think thats what she was getting at.
stop trying to be right wing to please the press and stop having policies just to stay in gov.
But most of all we should be our selves say and do what we beleive in and so be it if we loose.
Well that may be what her age group all think. any comments what do you all think.
YET we have some-one “close to the action”, namely Bob Katter, basically saying Kev was a great bloke. Now I personally think Katter is insane, and others may have a similar view, but nevertheless, Katter and his 2 friends are basically going to be running the country for the next 3 years (or until an election is called earlier) – so one has to at least take into account his views.
There’s been reference to Paul Kelly in recent blogs.
Let’s just ignore Kelly and his egomanic writings, and has long lost any credibility or integrity as a serious writer on the political stage.
Kelly is a pompous old windbag who never ceases to be amazed by his own self-serving brillance.
He’s a legend in his own mind!!
Regarding sophistry, open the dictionary you’ll find it between shit & syphillus
cud chewer @ 351
As I understand from reading the various articles published on the constitutional conventions:
- Julia is currently the PM & remains the PM until she either: (1) resigns her commission to the GG because she thinks she no longer has the numbers on the floor of the House ; OR (2) actually loses a vote of no confidence on the floor of the house.
- Assuming Julia gets the support of the Indies then she’ll ask the GG to recall parliament. After the speaker is appointed, then Tones will move a motion of no confidence in Julia’s government. Technically speaking, Julia is the new PM only if Tones’ no confidence motion fails.
As to how the bookies will settle bets, my guess would that if the 3 Indies all publicly say that they’re backing Jules (or Tones), then she (or he) clearly has the numbers & the bets will be settled immediately. If things remain unclear, then the bets will probably be settled only when Jules actually defeats the no confidence motion.
Link to an article explaining the consitutional conventions in some detail:
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE67K1JO20100821
cud chewer
Fundamental to understanding what happens on day 1 of the new parliament is to remember that the Legislature and the Executive are different beats, even though in our system the members of the Executive are drawn from the Legislature.
Once polls are declared and writs are returned to the GG she will ask the current PM if she believes she can form a government (will be able to secure the passage of the supply bills).
If JG says yes then the GG will swear in the new Ministry.
The Parliament will then meet, with the politicians supporting the new Ministry sitting on the right hand side of the speaker’s chair.
After new members are sworn in, the Clerk of the House will ask of their are any nominations for Speaker
The Clerk will then conduct a ballot if there is more than one nomination (secret written ballot).
Then the Clerk will annonce the new Speaker and his friends will drag him to the Chair (with the new Speaker traditionally resisting as it was once a dangerous job).
The Leader of the Opposition will then (if HE wishes) move a motion of no confidence in the Government.
If that is successful the the PM goes back to the GG and either advises the GG to call a HoR election (can;t be a new half senate election until July) or to call upon the Leader of the Opposition to form a Government.
If the latter advice then the GG will ask the Leaqder of the Opposition about sipply etc and we go around again
If the former then the GG does not hae to follow the advice but may call on the leader of the Opposition
If both sides tell her they cannot form a govenrment then she can order a new election.
How the BOOKIES will pay out is matter for the lawyers.
Seems like the YOUNG lIBS ARE GAINFULLY EMPLOYED AS USUAL.
News Limited newspapers reported Liberal and National party members could be behind an orchestrated campaign bombarding the independents’ offices with phone calls from voters, threatening to dump them at the next election if they side with Labor.
Mr Katter said his office had received such calls but they were not a big issue.
“I’ve got decisions to make on the basis of what we’re offered,” he told reporters in Canberra.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/katter-shrugs-off-tricky-stuff/story-e6freooo-1225914160105
“Those people have not got any knowledge about what is being offered. They can’t have the knowledge that they need to make an observation.
“I’ve seen all sorts of tricky stuff going on.”
Mr Katter said he hoped to make an announcement about which party he would support by Monday at the latest.
Gary, I note that the instigators have not been meeting with the indies.
Maybe they feel a bit like Socrates, myself and many others.
Rudd would have won if he had the ALP behind him.
The stupid caucus members who instigated the change thought “yeah, I can’t see us losing 10 seats over this – bring on the pork!”
The question now that I want answered is the whos, whens and how Rudd was undermined.
Yes Dio the Right royal pain (Pyne) did ok, but not so happy in Boothby – can we have a poll of Boothby, please, please, can we, can we, pretty please
my say
My OH says the ALP was running scared of the Murdoch empire who was the defacto opposition.
VP did you get my email?
What’s going on in Boothby?
The Queensland Opposition Leader won’t even ask a question in parliament unless it is from his reading of the Curious Snail that morning!
Has anyone here yet answered (or perhaps asked) the question
who runs the country?
The media
The miners
Treasury
The politicians
Or who?
one would have to ask why the religion report was scraped by the abc.
lizzie,
my monies on the miners & a few other major capitalist interests which includes the media, some politicians, supported by the dominant neo-liberal ideology of many economists including in Treasury & representing the dominant global corporations & neoliberal ideology – does that answer your question?
Dee
I’ll see if their are any new developments on Boothby beyond the struck down 3000 votes (where the libs won the seat by less in a major swing aginst them).
Feeny @ 389
My impression from reading Kelly’s article is that the emotions of Paul Kelly & other Lib supporters can be roughly described as shock, awe & fear.
They’re shocked that the Rabbot looks like he’s going to be a loser … in awe of Julia’s brilliant negotiation & political skills … and in fear of the possibility that a new Julia government might also win the next election.
Agreed, the Fibs are just one continuous campaign of sloganeering bs & bluster
And just how do you prove that?
No, they would have seen themselves losing 20 seats.
Andrew I agree with you. I just don’t think coming out with this “Rudd would have won” argument helps that analysis one bit.
just on the sequence of events, and the conventions to apply, the possibility is quite real that JG will answer “No” when the GG asks the question – or in reality, when JG says something like “close, but no cigar – the indies have gone with the mad monk – so he has a dodgy 76 – you had better offer him the job”
this is where the GG has to earn the salary. In the recent Tasmanian election, Bartlett did exactly this, as he had promised not to deal with the Greens. But rather than take the Premier’s advice, the Tasmanian governor said, no, you go and sort it out and then comeback after you have tested this in the house.
the thinking being that the disruption of signing in a new government is extremely disruptive to the public service etc, and you can’t rely on politicians say so.
the “secret ballot” for Speaker will be interesting
- ALP will do show and tell
- indies can do a Latham and put a blank ballot in (this has happened in the past)
- if it is 75 each (or 74 each), JG is still PM, and has to go back to the GG
if nothing else, this shows the folly of allowing betting on elections
Because it was shite, belief systems aside, compass should be next…No offence my say!
Did I hear right? Robb stated that the Coalition should be able to meet all of Katters wishlist.
Including tarrifs ….. now there getting desperate
These would be noncore promises untested by Treasury no doubt.
IF Katter’s got half a brain he knows there’s no chance either party will remove tarrifs – least of all the Fibs
Dee: No new developments yet in Boothby just thought a poll would be very interesting to see given the big swing against the Fibs
An elderly woman I know told me she had this conversation with her 6 year old grandson.
Child: I don’t want you to vote for Mr Abbott.
Grandma:- Why is that?
Child: He will stop the boats
Grandma: Why does that worry you?
Child: We won’t be able to go to Manly anymore on Sundays
Dee @ 409
Yes, or pretty damn close. ABC News last night, I think. Of course, he waffles so much it’s difficult to pin him down on anything he utters.
Everyone loses most of their marginals when there’s a big swing against them. However, the story of the Queensland state election is that Labor won a very solid majority with 50.1 per cent of the two-party vote. If the argument here is about Labor’s marginal seat campaigning abilities, clearly the Queensland election belongs in the case for the affirmative.
Dr Bogan
Yes, it answers only too well. A familiar concept
Did you see the report that the Religious Right in Texas have banned the word “capitalist” from their nouveau history for schools and substituted “entrepreneur” (I think, from memory, that’s the word).
The RRs have swamped the education board in Texas (because as so often in USA, the Board members are elected, not appointed). Having introduced creationism into science, the’re going to rewrite the history of America ,too.
Cos it was boring.
I doubt it. I haven’t see optional preferential widely canvassed for the Senate during the last 2 weeks when parliamentary reform has been a hot topic; in face, I can’t recall having heard/ see it. It would also make “above the line” unwieldy.
I can “see” an OPV below the line, where a mere 1, or 1, 2 would mean one could exhaust preferences wherever one desired – 2 would do me – but not above. Given the permutations and combinations on a ballot paper (in Q10, 50 names), and that “above the line” follows the party ticket, how many ‘tickets’ would a major party – say, the ALP – have to have to accommodate a million or so voters’ preferenceing desires?
In addition, OPV in an proportional election (as the Senate is) there’s a greater tendency to exhaust at 1. In the current Senate system, minor parties and indies do quite well with the current preference system. But how will they fare under a “Just vote 1″ campaign (& they’re common)? I haven’t seen any research, but I’ve heard there’s major party polarisation in tight elections (eg Q 09) and Greens & Indies don’t do as well as they expect.
Ask yourself, in the 21 Aug election, would the Greens, Wilkie & Crook have done as well if either ALP or Coalition dissatisfied voters couldn’t “park” their 1st preferences with the Greens/ named Indies but cover their backs with their 2nd/ 3rd preferences? How many Green/ other Senators would have been elected if both majors had run “Just vote 1″ campaigns?
Only the majors can be strongly advantaged by OPV, especially if there are “Just Vote 1″ campaigns.
Dr.Bogan
Thanks! I just thought the whole issue had gone very, very quiet & was wondering what was up.
#406
FAR better to run with the line Arbib and Bitar won the unwinnable election
#412
There is no evidence to support the proposition that he does…….
OzPoll Tragic #418
This is quoted from the Labor/Greens agreement signed this week:-
“A commitment for reform to provide above the line voting in the Senate”
I agree that it is a bit non-specific at this stage, but some above-the-line change is in the wind. Bob Brown has been beating this drum for a long time.
Exactly how caucus was convinced. Media and ALP shifties set this up.
Low on ethics, low on discipline, low on courage, low on wisdom.
ALP caucus decided to fight for their own seats rather than for the good of the country.
This was a set up Gary and it failed, and has nearly put us in the hands of the libs.
I think that you will find that people liked Rudd, and most would not be suprised if he was undermined by many vested interests.
The more people like you who stand up for morons Gary, the harder that the good folk within the ALP will kick the shifties.
Gary, do you consider any of the instigators to be good ALP folk?
Spot on by Pedro @300.
Gary
I did and you still avoided the question, so you’ll be waiting a long time.
He absolutely loathes Howard & his Liberals, especially for their “economic vandalism” of Rural Oz.
He regards Rudd as a good friend, a good sort of bloke, trustworthy, and one who believed in “due process” (& that goes back almost 20 years). If KR were sill PM, he’d have no hesitation backing him.
If you lean evn a hint to the left, that makes Bob the Hat smarter than – gee, what % of the Oz public since March 1996?
I think some on here are getting a little carried away. You won’t find anyone defending Bitar or Arbib on this site based on the situation that we believed to have occurred. Let’s wait for the election result.
Me thinks some are going to have egg on their faces when the real story about Rudd’s demise is made known.
This is the correct quote at #422 – not from the quick summary, summary, sorry.
“The Parties note that Senator Bob Brown will reintroduce as a Private Members Bill the
Commonwealth Electoral (Above?the?Line Voting) Amendment Bill 2008. The ALP will
consider the Bill and work with the Greens to reach reforms satisfactory to the Parties.”
Re marginal seat campaigning: As I commented last night (in a genuine psephological comment which no-one noticed among the reams of repetitious media commentary which now dominates this forum), Labor avoided defeat essentially by holding six NSW marginals in the face of the statewide swing: Greenway and Lindsay in Sydney and Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Page and Robertson outside Sydney. I was involved in the Eden-Monaro campaign and I know what it involved: a strong and popular candidate, and support for Labor’s regional investments including the NBN, the BER and renewable energy projects.
I would absolutely support a change in the Senate voting system along these lines:-
1. Can vote above the line by marking 1 box. That would be equivalent to voting the group ticket. OR
2. Numbering all squares below the line OR
3. Numbering each box above the line in order of preference AND numbering each of the “ungrouped” candidates as part of that preference vote.
No 3 would give voters real choice without the necessity of going to the effort of numbering every square.
If so Robb is lying. The promise for safe ports every 35kms for example, is geographically impossible in many places. The exchange rate wish can only happen if we junk the mining industry or floating exchange rates. Good luck with that, Mr Robb.
Finns
Enlightenment values. Read anything by Richard Feynman and that’s what I stand for.
The same applies to Abbott when the dust settles.
OR the additional factor that regional seats are very “conservative” and do not change hands as readily as city seats.
I heard Robb say that as well. Given that the NBN was at the top of his list it sounded like wishful thinking.
Who will be the author ?
Hell, after their costings revelations I reckon they are more than capable of junking the whole economy.
Any polling on Dockers v Hawks?
my say@ 79
Mysay
My Dad is in Hanoi, he always wanted to see Vietnam and he’s starting there and going South.
There were a couple of local boys killed and even more messed up so I suppose Mum & Dad are checking stuff out if they ever have to argue a point. I think you know what I mean. It’s a mad world, but I am glad that you are in it.
Katter’s call.
Gee, how does an opposition deal with someone who believes in the greater good, but has really crazy ideas about how to enable this.
You can’t know what he is serious about and which ones are bear traps.
Wilkie got one, I bet Katter is going for one also, he loves hunting!
Andrew Robb would walk backward around Australia naked if it got him Katter’s vote.
I f I recall correctly, Robb said a coalition govt should be able to fulfill most of his wishlist.
Pi**ing in the wind, as usual, is a very silly Robb. Desperation reigns supreme.
Dr Bogan
Yes thanks – orry for the wrng address – then I went back to sleep for a while
I’ll email you later
#423 Radguy
You are on the money.
Oh yuck! That vision is almost as bad as Sloppys big black hole. yukyukyukyuk!
Good candidates are half the battle, in 2007 when the big swing was on a drovers dog would have done the job but this time is it really surprising that, Sullivan, Raguse, Bevis and very nearly Perret were defeated? None of these guys were either strong or effective.
Cheers PY. Like all here a bit on the outside, the postmortem will be fascinating!
#426
Katter is dumber than about 99% of the Australian electorate. If he was running the country we would have the government setting the exchange rate. Now I am not an economist, but from what I understand apart from Katter, very few would stick their heads up and support that. He is a lunatic, a motor mouth and very mentally unstable IMHO.
Psephos @429
Yes, I did read it and appreciated it, but don’t feel I have the knowledge to comment productively. I thought it was a shining light in a murky sea of half guesses.
Whether Kev and Julia are still mates or not, I am sure Kev has drilled the team on how to work with Katter especially. They respect each other, from all appearances, and Julia would be quite aware of what the pitfalls will be.
If she is as good a negotiator as people say, she will have done her homework well and truly.
I remember seeing the crap ‘soundbite’ from Rabbott’s first meeting with the 3 Indies. Rabbs was spouting platitudes about how much he loved one of their parts of the country. It sounded saccharine, and I am betting would not have impressed the indies one iota.
Julia, on the other hand, was business right from the start.
What part of ‘no’ don’t you get?
Well not as strong as the forces opposing them, anyway. The other thing that surprised me was how easy Entsch, Laming, and Vasta did win. The campaigns against them were very soft and fluffy.
I think that’s another way of saying that candidate factors matter more in regional seats. Both Kelly and Saffin are popular local members. But that won’t save you if there’s a big swing – CT in Flynn was also very popular locally. The Qld swing was too big for local factors to matter much, although D’Ath did very well in Petrie – perhaps someone here knows why.
Also, country seats can be very unsentimental sometimes – as Sir Earle Page found in 1961. Country people know when it’s time for an old horse to go to the knackers – ask Wilson Tuckey.
Besides Soc you are doing the old avoidance trick of concentrating on the “man” and not the arguments put froward. My background has nothing to do with the arguments I’m putting forward. I haven’t asked for your background and to be honest couldn’t careless what it is.
Peter Nichol
I don’t have a strong opinion on this one – Hawks are better at full strength but Dockers being in Perth can’t hurt. Overall though, I’ll say Hawks. Dockers long term injuries are too severe.
Truss still lingers on though.
Exactly. Makes it hard for those who don’t understand him.
PY – I am sure there are plenty of things that I disagree with Katter over, but in this phase of his career, I think that he is in a pretty good position to catch some vermin.
Good thing that he and Rudd see eye to eye.
Talk about a conspiracy theory. Any proof of this one?
Anyone with half a brain could see Labor were in electoral trouble under Rudd. I could have written the ads for the Libs.
Dinkum, we HAVE “above the line voting in the senate”. We’ve HAD it for quite some time. Currently, it’s only for people happy to follow a specific party’s preference deals. I can’t see how one would alter this, except to create alternative columns for alternative preference deals.
“Below the line ” is for people who want to allocate their own preferences – usually if they’re not happy with the agreed preference deals OR they want to change preference order within a bloc (eg, if a party order is Allen, Biddy, Cagey, Daggy, Eggy, Farour; but many want Farout, then Daggy, after that “who cares” – and this has happened in at least 2 Q elections I can remember – or they want to exhaust a candidate, like the “Flo (Bjelke Petersen) 33″ campaign).
But they have to preference every candidate (50 in Q’s this year) and not mess up their numbering, or it’s informal.
OPV, below the line, makes sense, since those who want to give their own preferences, in order, only to candidates to whom they want to allocate preferences can easily be accommodated.
Dinkum, I think you need to clarify just what it is the Greens want. Senate voting is a headache for those who like to do their own preferences. I used to; but I can’t see well even with glasses, and I tend to lose count when trying to allocate 50 preferences on a paper so long & floppy I have to kneel on the floor if I want to see everything on it. I gave that up after 2004!
He had better take care doing that. There are far too many homosexuals in outback Queensland who might misinterpret the “black hole” headlines.
Can anyone explain to me how I’m not answering Soc’s question here?
Stick with it Gary. You have every right to express your views. (The Greeks like to think they have a monopoly on philosophical inquiry and general wisdom. We have Diogenes, Aristotle and Socrates. I was sure I saw Narcissus earlier on. Where is Ulysses? We need him.)
#458
Unfortunately, NewsPoll hadn’t picked up this “trouble” in it’s polling. Presumably the “secret polling ” had. Maybe instead of relying on NewsPoll we should rely on Arbibs & Bitars “secret polling”. Will they release it to us ?
Are we doing homophobe jokes now?
Abbott, Robb and Hockey – to be immortalized as Pork, Porker and Porkest.
Whereas everyone knows its the Romans
Vernula Publicus
#461
First signs of very low self esteem…..seeking validation from others.
What exactly caused Rudd to be in that position Gary?
Could it be that the focus groups in NSW marginals emphasised some extremely degenerate ideas which would be popular in those marginals?
If that’s how these marginals feel, I don’t want their rep in government.
Gary, you blame everything on the leader. This is WEAK. The party has far more responsibility as a whole for the low opinion polls under Rudd. Rudd is just one man, and if the shifties think that all of their sins can be washed off onto Rudd, think again.
Just because the evidence isn’t there, doesn’t mean it didn’t happen. Your case is more speculative than mine if you ask a few of us.
As member for Wide Bay, he’s probably younger than most of the voters! And probably left of them as well.
[Wide Bay Burnett is a region renowned for its diverse landscapes – from the Great Barrier Reef, Great Sandy Strait wetlands and Fraser Island, to the region’s green, fertile coastal plains, the Bunya Mountains, Cania Gorge and its rural hinterland.
More than 80% of the region’s population is located in the five major centres of Bundaberg, Maryborough, Hervey Bay, Gympie and Kingaroy.
http://www.dip.qld.gov.au/widebayburnett
peter young, just imagine there is a great big rug with ‘contempt’ written on it. It is cold and you have to use it. Only then you’ll know.
You can’t argue with historical fact.
Now come on think it through. Look back and see what people here were advising Rudd to do. Better communication. Involve hia ministers more. Don’t apologise. Stick up for Labor policies. Need I go on?
Umm, yes there is proof. Someone leaked Labor’s internal polling to Andrew Bolt and told him they were getting rid of Rudd. Bolt was way ahead of everyone and was the first to call Rudd as a goner.
My dear hubby just went out to the shops in this gale and bought yesterday’s Financial Review just so I could have Laura Tingle’s articles on black holes et al. Thanks dear.
vivi63
According to some media the issue of ‘black holes’ is vaporising into a non event. Grrrrrr………
Greek philosophers would, Dee!
They had no compunctions about bashing facts until they fitted the theory.
#473
They used Bolt to do their dirty work ?
VP @392, subsequent to posing my question, I went out to lunch with mum and mum responded by saying that even if government holds on to office, the convention is that before Parliament is recalled, the GG will ask the then acting (caretaker) PM if he/she feels he/she has the confidence of the house. Then the GG appoints a Ministry. If that is so then this contradicts earlier replies I’ve had that suggest that the GG doesn’t have to do anything except recall the Parliament. At this stage I tend to side with you.
If my guess about the bookies is correct, this is the deciding moment and its all over when the GG swears in a Ministry. I’d love to know if anyone disagrees, or still thinks we can go to the next stage without the GG appointing a Ministry (in other words leaving the current one in tact without positively reaffirming it)
I’ve gotta watch that one this time
You can take that one for granted with Tony.
Interesting question what would she do..
You see what I wanted to know was, would the GG appoint a new JG ministry or not, before we get to this stage. Otherwise you could have the situation where the first positive act by the GG is to appoint an Abbott ministry, thus settling bets in his favour – even if he only lasts an hour and calls a new election. Can’t wait for the lawyers on that one.
fun.. fun.. fun.
I’ve written to SportingBet asking them precisely how they will handle this. But if you are correct in that a new Ministry will be sworn in before the new Parliament sits, then I’m pretty sure the bookies will go with the GG.
Does anyone substantially disagree?
The Newspoll is now off the front page of most online rags. What a surprise!
And who was to say that internal polling was wrong?
P. Vernula
and the wise know it is the jedi
I didn’t say that. I just said the Labor Right leaked internal polling to Bolt to discredit Rudd.
Oh come on! Intellectual envy?
Dee I will keep that issue anyway. A black hole can’t vaporise as far as I know. Maybe it turns into some kind of planet. Lots of astronomers on here, they could tell me.
Gary, please tell me you agree that any Labor member leaking to Andrew Bolt about anything sensitive is not acting in their Party’s interests!
I haven’t even mentioned anything about that.
It’s good to see that Mike Carlton has come up with his own template letter for Kristina keneally to hand out to her MP’s.
It’s dark, I’ve upset my bagman and I’m down to my undies
I think the issue deserved absolute premium, scolding, analytical saturation by the media.
Alas, some journos & media commentators are making lame excuses for it.
In 2008 Bob Brown introduced the Commonwealth Electoral (Above-the-Line Voting) Amendment Bill.
This was to allow voters to order parties by preference above-the-line in the Senate.
At present voters wanting their own choice face the complex job of preferencing individual candidates, rather than parties, below-the-line.
With this bill, voters would have the option of numbering the parties above the line in their order of choice, giving them control over the flow of preferences.
It would seem to follow the model successfully introduced in NSW. The number of minor parties nominating dropped considerably, and the preference ticket market died.
I am trying to find a copy of the 2008 bill for further clarification.
Quite a few of Labor Rights decisions have been based on very dodgy self-serving polling which has not been borne out by reality. Newspoll etc didn’t pick up what Labor’s polling claims to have picked up. And the focus group polling that caused Bitar, Gillard and Arbib to hound Rudd into dumping the ETS was also clearly wrong.
You can only get these things wrong so often before it becomes clear you are faking your results to suit your agenda.
No, it’s true Dee!
For them, Reason was supreme
thus, Reality was subordinate.
By and large they just didn’t see any point in referring to the real world to test their ideas. Even when said ideas actually pertained to the workings of the real world.
eg) Aristotle said that thrown objects travelled in a dead straight line ascending at whatever angle they were thrown at- and when they reached the highest point they just dropped straight down to the ground.
Anybody looking at the path of a thrown object can see that this is not so. But it never worried Aristotle, or any of his admiring acolytes!
My understanding of it is that the “above the line” form of voting being proposed by Brown simply involves allowing the numbering of preferences “above the line” for the various groups, rather than any vote cast “above the line’ depending simply on the ticket ordering proposed by the parties themselves in accordance with the box numbered “1″.
Gary
The only thing you have got going for you is that history is written by the victor.
That’s a good point, PY, although in a Murdochracy it ain’t necessarily so!
PY
Psephos tells me that isn’t true any more. I forget who he said writes it now though.
K-man
Aristotle was the most over-rated philosopher ever. He and his acolytes held back philosophy for about 1500 years.
Thanks Dio, I suspected that this was not Rudd’s idea.
Isn’t that precisely what they do, evaporate over time with Hawking radiation due to Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle?
Dio @490, I tend to agree there. I believe there were other agendas in dumping Rudd beyond the immediate panic of the polls. If these guys were professionals they would have waited. There was an upswing in the polls at least a week before they dumped Rudd, that was evident from the public polls. And even then Rudd offered a compromise where by they would wait and see and if not he would step down well in time for an October election.
I believe that at least some of the push to remove Rudd had nothing to do with the question of electability and had more to do with other agendas. Otherwise, if they had been professional they would have and could have waited a few more weeks.
Btw, I also think that the upswing in the polls had less to do with Rudd or Julia and had more to do with Abbott at that stage exhausting his credibility – the honeymoon had worn off and so had some of the immediate response to other unpopular moves.
I also think that Julia, on whole, maybe had the edge in electability, at least at the point at which she took over. But that does not change the fact that Rudd could have become more electable had he been given time.
I also dislike the animosity towards Julia. She actually was given a very hard decision to make. The real blame lies with the power brokers. The very fact that Julia is left wing (albeit a pragmatist) and the power brokers are from the right wing says something too. I’m not a conspiracy theorist but I can’t rule out there might have been something in the idea that these guys had in mind to appoint Julia as a temporary election winner before appointing someone more to their liking.
You know one thing I find quite amusing is that the deal with Wilkie over the pokies was indeed possible because of the hard work put into the issue during Rudd’s term and in particular his (correct) obsession with process that led to the gambling issue being taken to the productivity commission.
My only criticism of Rudd is that it surprised me that after having run a very successful campaign he did not then set up mechanisms that would continually promote his achievements and attack the media at every turn when they did try beat ups. Just feels weird that. Like Rudd was either too busy (his mistake) or his organisation was letting him down – even playing dead. You decide.
Jon- I don’t know, I have some uncertainty (lol)
Diogenes,
But he must have been good at impressing Macedonian kings with enormous treasuries!
I bet your namesake hated his guts…
There is a practical problem with optional preferential voting in the Senate. If a large number of ballots exhaust quickly, the “quota” will have to be adjusted as each victor is declared or candidate eliminated. Not practical.
I suspect the intention might be to provide an option to provide an order of preference above the line so that voters voting above the line aren’t automatically distributed as per party registered HTV is reallocated.
Yes, but it tends to happen (according to Hawking) with infinitesimally sized black holes. The more normal (stellar mass) sized ones would take longer than the present age of the universe to evaporate and thats if they sat out in the middle of nowhere not eating anything.
cud chewer,
Agree with that.
If anyone was handed one of those fecal sandwiches this year it was Gillard.
Her response to it since has, of course, been in no way perfect- but it has confirmed my high opinion of her abilities.
Extremely practical if its being done on a computer.
No conspiracy theory from me and it may be a coincidence. However, it is deeply troubling that this is like an action replay from NSW.
Iemma-Rees-Keneally.
On second thoughts black holes only evaporate if there is not enough incoming mass to sustain them, which in Joe Hockeys case would be highly unlikely.
Cud – Julia might have landed with her arse in the butter!
As long as she does a good job, she is at far less risk of being deposed.
I think it is good that our first woman PM looks like she will get a fair go.
The only correction that she needs to make relates to certain aspects of the education policy, which seem to me as going against her grain.
Ah yes. Wilson has been a shining light for decades and has only done dim after 2007
*sigh* A factional convenor is not a “power broker.” This is a stupid media word which doesn’t mean anything. And as I’ve said about 20 times now, most of the left was party to Rudd’s removal from the start.
The way Gillard fills her new Ministry will be interesting. The only certainty is Swan as Treasurer – becuase he is Dept PM.
I reckon there will be wholesale changes. But a couple of almost certainties are Crean in Education and Rudd in FA.
Roxon out of Health, Macklin to the backbench.
Combet and Shorten into Cabinet and D’ath to get a Parl Sec gig.
Radguy, speaking of policy, I think Julia will be quietly pleased with the filter heading south and a conscience vote on gay marriage. Two issues where she obviously didn’t support party policy but now having the greens as an excuse is a godsend
Pseph – are these the caucus members who might have been a little annoyed at some of the steps to the right Rudd appeared to take?
Sounds like these lefty caucus members would have been happy with Jules if Kev appeared to be heading to the right.
Psephos @ 510, I used the word power broker for anyone in the Party, faction leader or not, who wields undue or unusual influence, and I save my harshest criticism for those who herded the caucus in the way they did. And even if it was not willful and deceitful, it was still reckless and unprofessional.
Cud – Sounds like you know the real Julia. I look forward to seeing her. Win or lose, the gal deserves a few of days off, she is a trooper!
And that proves nothing as you know. Its the influence and the correctness of the influence that matters.
Mate, I care a lot about the party. I also loathe and despise Abbott. But I really want to see the party operate professionally and without hidden agenda and actions that distort the truth.
But the faction convenors are elected by members of the faction. So your arguement kinda falls in a heap.
ru @511
Rishworth will get a gig. At the expense of Macklin?.
Radguy and cud chewer, with due respect, this is all bollocks. The move to depose Rudd was not factional and not about policy. It was about Rudd. It was about the fact that Rudd’s autocratic and inefficient method of government was no longer tolerable, and that he was leading us to defeat. Either of these might have been tolerable in the absence of the other, but both together were fatal. All the Caucus convenors did was count heads and show the results to Gillard.
Theory is that a black hole can lose mass by hawking radiation. Theoretically postulated mini black holes can “vapourise” completed via this mechanism in a flash of emitted energy.
It was all done extremely professionally, comrade.
Psephos
A Labor “powerbroker” put it more succinctly. Newspoll was Rudd’s only support basis and when that was gone there was nothing to keep him there.
I’m not saying I agree but that was the sentiment.
A Coalition Black Hole can evaporate by Robb radiation.
Psephos, I happened to like Rudd’s style. It may upset some but when it came to getting the right thing done for the right reason it worked. You’re going to have to explain to me with evidence what you mean by inefficient. If that’s just a criticism of style – that he was unlikely to make off the cuff decisions – well tough. The alternative leadership style can have its faults too.
And I call bullshit on Rudd leading us to defeat. Most disengaged voters were quite comfortable in their small lives – strangely untroubled by the GFC. Where most people started to “hate” Rudd it had nothing to do with the party thought of him and every thing to do with media beat up.
Diogenes, that is correct. And that was all his own work.
Lets not forget either, that it is not clear if the decision to dump the ETS was Rudd’s or forced on him by the same said power brokers. You cannot have it both ways. You can’t blame Rudd for the backlash over dumping the ETS and at the same time claim that the actions of the power brokers in dumping it made Labor more electable.
I can’t imagine any sort of energy being emitted by Hockey.He has been grumpy and comfort-eating since 2007.
no offence but cannot see your reason, i learned a lot about different religions
Hindu, Muslim, Jewish etc, it was good to learn about other cultures and the way they think, it helped understand the people, so i dont understand why.
that statement about because of the interview with Mark Scott at the abc,
so if you go back a few pages you may realise the context of the post
i thought it was very fascinating considering Mark Scott’s religious statement
??
Well that’s pretty sad isn’t it. It makes it look like said powerbroker wanted Rudd gone all along and simply couldn’t because of newspoll. That’s got agenda written all over it.
Hmm.. put that one down to my dodgy connection.. soz.
Psephos: will you eat your words if Rudd has helped to get Katter’s support for a minority Labor Government?
The religion report was too secular. Pell didn’t like it.
AEC 2PP Update:
Coalition 50.01
ALP 49.99
Perhaps by Monday, Labor will be ahead?
535
mmm?
Who were practical enough to do things, not just talk endlessly about them. So they actually built sewers instead of dying of plagues resulting from an “all talk, no do” approach to building them! In fact, their main sewer, Cloaca Maxima, begun (probably) cBC600, is still in use – 2,600 years; not bad for picks & shovels! If you’re game, and it’s not flooded, you can still visit (pic: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloaca_Maxima ) The Via Flammina is still in use, as are parts of the Via Appia. If Romans built something, it stayed built, unless earthquakes, enemies or stone robbers destroyed it. Some Roman aqueducts are still in use. Moreover, there is almost no design difference between the structure of Roman aqueducts and 19th C railway viaducts
Greek democracy was another Great Idea that was a shambles in practice: Asemblies sat in the sun and argued … and argued … and argued; key citizens could be ostracised (and were); even Aristophanes, in The Birdscould crack jokes about a city distinguished by the fact that juries were still deliberating (so long that places in a jury, paid for a trial’s duration, could be willed to heirs). Roman citizens had to know by heart the 12 Tables of the Law, and accounts of major Roman trials still make “Perry Mason, eat y’r heart out” reading. Democracy worked a treat BC 510-c100, and still survived, especially at local level, until Rome fell. During a controversial debate, probably the main difference between current ones & Roman, is that Romans were far better (& very well taught) orators.
It was Roman democracy & legal systems the Normans & later Englishmen used as models. We still have Roman-style TUs, heads of TUs (Tribunes of the Plebs) and strikes, inc general strikes. We still have political parties representing the working classes (Populares) and upper classes (Optimates – though more so in the UK) and the middle classes (Equites). Roman historian called ther version of Karl Marx’s “class warfare”, “The Struggle of the Orders”.
Oddly, now we know the racial make-up of most of Roman Britain’s Legions and Cohorts, we may say that major English cities, like London & York, are finally as racially (& religiously) diverse as they were before the troops were recalled 1600 years ago (AD 410).
Salve SPQR!
I detect a lot of optimism here from pro-Labor types – I hope all of you aren’t wrong!
On the other hand, I’m still pessimistic.
I don’t really care if other caucus members didn’t like Rudd. He won government for the ALP by having a nouse.
Pseph, I really don’t think that you understand this nouse. I think that you are in favour of focus groups and whatever to win. Are we right back to where we were 2 months ago?
Well actually, I made my decision to support the greens following from your perspective, so you seem to be back 2 months.
You can claim dibs on stupid politics if you want, but Australians have lost their appetite for it.
When it is shown that the influence of the media is of little import to political perceptions and outcomes, I will concede that the weighting accorded by contributors to this forum to the machinations of the media is exaggerated.
Until such time as that can be shown, I contend that there is no greater or more influential force in the manipulation / shaping of public perceptions THAN the media.
Name one other force in a democracy that speaks to millions of voters, right where they live, every day of the year.
Hint: There isn’t one. None that come even close.
We keep hearing that the ALP will be in front ‘soon’. Is that likely?
All decision making was centralised in Rudd’s office. Decisons took months to make. Rudd worked far too hard, which affected his health and his judgement. His personal staff had far too much power. There was no-one to say “No, PM.” He became withdrawn and isolated and his public presentations deteriorated.
The hospital plan was the best example. It should have been announced in early 2009. Rudd spent a whole year on “process” and photo ops. By the time the plan was announced, it was too late to fix it up or take it to a referendum if the premiers obstructed it, as was the original plan. Politically, it was a turkey, and was unusable during the campaign.
It took me a little while to realise that FA is Foreign Affairs, for a second there I thought you meant he should get nothing.
cc
To back up Psephos’ argument (something I am loathe to do) I can only refer you to Machiavelli’s The Prince.
He repeatedly points out that a leader can be loved or feared (he prefers them to be both) but he cannot he hated. If he is hated, people will work against him and kill him.
Rudd was hated by his colleagues.
Here are the changes I’d make to a Gillard Ministry:
Rudd back to Foreign Affairs
Stephen Smith into Trade
Combet to Defence
Mike Kelly promoted to Defence Personnel
Chris Bowen to Finance
Mark Dreyfuss replaces MCclelleand as Attorney General
Garrett replaced by Adam Bandt as Environment Minister
Amanda Risworth elevated to a parliamentary secretary post
Wilkie was the game changer, the L-NP can only get 76 seats. Minus Speaker it gives them a one vote majority.
Who holds that one vote? The National Party.
KOW are not going to hand Govt to the Nats. Its over.
Psephos – You are describing the elements of a true performer.
I’m not surprised, I am an amateur pianist like Rudd.
Pseph, the style of the anti-rudd elements is seriously reminiscent of Milli Vanilli.
Perhaps some of this is fair criticism, but he still lead many major reforms. And as I said, the crowing irony is his bringing the gambling issue to the productivity commission, thus paving the path for Julia and Wilkie.
And someone else in the same job wouldn’t have gotten bogged down by the same state bureaucrats? Of course they would. Or else they would have had an Abbott style “just do it” approach in which case you could guarantee far worse things would happen. You may not like a slow, thorough even scholarly approach. But I do. I accuse the Labor caucus of having the same problem most voters do – a poor attention span and impatience despite the fact that anything good that comes out of government usually takes 5 or more years.
And I might add. At the end of it all, and hardly remembered because of the very fact that Rudd was taken down, Rudd actually reached an agreement and it was never promoted because of the very fact you dug yourself into a hole not being able to shout from the rooftops Rudd’s final achievement.
You might have criticised the NBN as well. Why all the process? Well I tell you, it was done extremely well and I might add part of the delay was in appointing the NBNco CEO.. originally it was going to be one of the usual suspects, but Rudd intervened and appointed Quigley, and in so doing did us all a huge favour.
Its all very well to criticise one persons leadership style and their mistakes. Its another to have the balls to admit that anyone else is going to have his/her problems too.
And finally, yes I agree that Rudd needed a holiday. Heck you could have acknowledged that and asked if he would step down to do precisely that. But nah.. so much for a consultative approach
Perhaps. But he did advise/tutor one of the greatest, most forward-thinking and strategic warriors in all of history.
Well Radgay and cud chewer, I think you are both just factually wrong, but we will have to agree to disagree.
The weather here in SA has turned pretty wild and its heading east. Pressure dropped to about 990 which is very low and now we have wind gusting to 100kph and plenty of rain.
Damn, it would be nice if Labor could hire Tanner back at a promoter of its policies..
A friend whose property was first burnt out and is now under water asks: “Fire. Locusts. Tony Abbott. Flood. What else could possibly happen?”
Bit difficult when the Greens aren’t in coalition with Labor.
Diogenes, I take it you’re cherry-picking the final 52-48 poll, as the less honest Rudd supporters so often do. However, I expect better from you. Labor’s poll trend score had dropped about five points in the two months leading to Rudd’s axing, and was maybe a nudge about 50 per cent when it happened. The internal polling had it at 49 per cent. Nobody with any sense thinks either the internal polling or the concerns it generated weren’t genuine. Of course, whether they reacted to it in the right way is an entirely different matter.
@551, you got facts, here’s a place to show them
Aristotle is a good friend of mine, a rather good contributor also to ABC NEWS 24 & News Radio.
Aced, probably unintentionally, by Gusface’s the wise know it is the jedi
Will it be Monday or Tuesday? Surely not later.
Also Dio — you can’t really talk about philosophy as a straight-line kind of development. Philosophy grew in waves, but it also was taken up in waves, but at a different rate.
Some of the greatest philosophers, weren’t understood in their own time, but came to be understood when ideas became fashionable and were on the verge of being spontaneously adopted by various societies at various times.
Our own society is reflective of this … where many diametrically opposed philosophies coexist (often to the astonishment of the opposers).
Do you think Julia would promote Shorten?
William, I’m actually basing my opinion on Possum’s PollyTrend, which at the time showed a clear uptick at least a week before Rudd was dumped.
If you don’t believe me, ask Possum.
The word I was getting, cud, long, long before the leadership challenge (in other words, these are not “post facto rationalisations”) , was that even the other three members of the so called “gang of four” were having huge trouble getting anything back out of Rudd’s office after it had gone in. Even once they did, there was a strong chance that it would then be changed before it could be implemented. (This, in fact , seems to have even happened with an earlier agreed decison on a DD over the ETS) The process was so cumbersome, and so unpredictable, that it caused real difficulties for most senior ministers.
Then on some occasions , decisions would be made unilaterally with such rapidity that despite the normal “snails pace” of operation there was no opportunity at all to properly consider them.
THere were some impressive aspects of Rudd, but running an effective decision making process really wasn’t one of them. Quite what all of this would have meant in the hurly burly of an election campaign, of course, is anyone’s guess.
What exactly is the agreement with WA on health?
The silly part of Rudd’s personal control was that he had a really good team of Ministers on average.
Noted this months ago – when the Community Cabinet held in Elizabeth, Rudd answered every audience question at length before asking Minister to speak. What ever would possess someone to not delegate the small stuff and concentrate on the big picture.
A Minister for Disability Services wouldn’t be a bad idea – a good gig for Shorten.
Psephos
VERY VERY TRUE
He is a shrewdy, Dee. With this statement Mr Katter has just buttered both sides of the cinnamon toast……something for those (good voters in Kennedy) who like Kevin Rudd, and something for those are glad he’s gone. And he has managed to cast himself as the Insider too…..perhaps he is fruit in the toast.
Despite his unreconstructed homophobia, I am starting to see things about Katter that I could enjoy.
Are you kidding — Roxon has done excellent work from where I sit.
Nonsense, it’s a numbers game, if you can’t get the numbers in the caucus or the numbers at the ballot box for whatever reason you don’t lead and you don’t govern. That is how our system works.
Cud Chewer, I’m basing it on that as well. The “uptick” to which you refer was from about 50.0 to 50.2.
Roxon for AG I hear?
What about Junior Ministers to retire to the backbench?
How about putting Rob Michell in as Parliamentary Secretary for Agriculture, as deputy to Tony Burke?
Mitchell is experienced working for the Victorian Agriculture Minister, and it’d be reward for him achieving a 5% swing to Labor in McEwen.
Yes, William, but the trend continued and the fact is that what drove the trend had started to kick in before Rudd was decommissioned. Whether Julia continued or strengthened the trend will never be known, but I seriously doubt it had all (or much) to do with the figurehead.
It would be a shame for Maxine McKew’s media experience and insight to go to waste.
Maxine for Communications.
#484 Vivi
A black hole can evaporate but over immense timescales by a process called Hawking radiation.
Maxine would do great without any other responsibility than to talk to the media and attend public forums.
Bill Shorten……by all accurate accounts, his role in the Moment of Profound Destiny was, as in so many things, wildly exaggerated.
That’s perfectly reasonable, CC. What isn’t reasonable is that “power-drunk factional bosses fabricated internal polling to execute a hugely risky leadership change a few months out from an election rather than just wait until it was out of the way”, which I nonetheless hear quite often.
Maxine lost the Asian vote – for instance, there was a 13% swing against her in Eastwood, the most Asian part of the Bennelong electorate.
SShit, I just remembered she lost her seat to a tennis phoney. She cannot be a Minister if she’s not an MP. Perhaps Julia could appoint her to PM’s office in charge of media communications.
There’s a great big assumption on this site about which current Minister will have which job. That assumption is obvious. Its far from certain.
Rod @ 564 – That wouldn’t surprise me given the games that were going on.
No good deed goes unpunished. Rudd wanted to be consistent, but worry warts in the caucus weren’t interested in this.
Not saying she has not, but she has had the job in opposition and Govt for too long. The policy stuff is basically done, let someone else drive it.
Roxon should go back to what she is good at A-G.
Evan14 you forgot Crean, I don’t think Julia will. I think those two get on just fine.
Roxon will keep health.
Evan – I think the Chinese in Bennelong were told that the ALP were commos. That would put them off in a heartbeat.
evan did you see the article saying Rudd was a factor in this swing?
actually she can, but only for three months, and it isn’t going to happen.
Ozpol
nothings is unintentional
evan14 @581, yes I saw that too. I wonder why? I really don’t understand that one.
Cud — last I saw Maxine had lost her seat.
I’d like to see Roxon given something other than Health, too. She has fought well the last two elections on the issue and something different would be good for her.
Where was Tanner during the campaign? Wasnt he supposed to be Finance Minister? I think he is great communicator. Was he too peed off about Rudd. After all, he could have waited a few weeks to announce his retirement but did it the next day. Did he help Bowtell at all??
Now you’re changing the Constitution?
Cuppa @582, of course they can appoint Maxine as an advisor. And that’s exactly what they needs is people whose entire role is to continually promote the government.
rua, what the hell was that health plan after all of that? I have no idea except WA didnt come to the party. About as politically attractive as Fielding
Jen @592, I know.. see above.
He was anything but consistent, he was all over the place, he had the scattered waffle people get when they take on too much and can’t possible do it all. A major requirement for good leadership is the ability to delegate, for whatever reason he didn’t and it cost him the leadership.
Sorry Ru — for the life of me I cannot figure out what A – G is … probably something really simple, but am getting to be brain dead with all this waiting … waiting … waiting …
William I dont think the internal polling was made up. I think it was used by the party to get rid of a leader they didnt like. They didnt consider the risks of doing so.
William
My recollection of the internal polling Bolt had was worse than a narrow defeat. He said they would be slaughtered.
Clearly there were concerns about the polling, which I should add were not shared by ANY of the Labor PBers except in retrospect, but they pulled the trigger on Rudd after a 52-48 poll which they would kill for now.
And I’d love to see how they justify their “research” that made them toss the ETS.
cud…..consider the numbers:
ALP PV @ 35% and dwindling
PM’s Net Satisfaction @ -20% and stretching
Argument against a leadership change…..Disruption, disaffection, distraction, shock/horror factors, possibility of revenge/backlash, risk that the new leader may self-combust, media circus, confusion and disarray, accusations of panic and disloyalty…..
Argument in favour of leadership change…..100% certainty that on the then current polling Labor would be reduced to less than 60 seats in the HoR. (1977 would feel quite good by comparison.)
What would you do? Try to win or give in and accept defeat?
Julia Gillard and the caucus took a calculated risk. They have done much much better than they could have expected. Gillard in particular deserves a lot of praise. She did not have to take this risk, but she did and the government appears to have won a reprieve. I think she will go on to great things.
The Health Plan had the potential to be one of the most far reaching changes to the delivery of health services ever – still has.
The truth is Rudd waited too long and couldn;t sell it = in the end he paniced an dgave the states what they wnated for their signatures.
WA not in the party is the least of the porblems
Maxine has the insight, experience, and, presumably, the contacts in the media. She’d be a natural. If there is one aspect in which I aver the ALP needs to lift its game – substantially – it’s media management. Bring on the big guns, start blasting away and don’t let up for a moment!
Socrates ummm about your prediction dockers/hawkes, checked the score lately? heheheheheheheheheheheehe…oh you east coasters, talk about those Libs born to rule mentality in politics…but I will say no more, there is still time brother
I hate the libs but dont really hate those dear vic teams, weeeell.
Wasn’t just tanner. You didn’t see much of anyone besides Abbott and Gillard. What were the so called professionals in the Labor Party thinking of?
Ahh, Cud, my response happened much earlier … just had to wait in line for other posts … so it only looked like I wasn’t paying attention.
The one drawback with popular blogs, I guess.
Attorney-General
She has all the qualifications for the job.
Or perhaps they did and thought they were worth it.
Attorney General
Public support for climate change mitigation has been on the wane for a while I believe.
Jon @599 – maybe Rudd was worried about getting railroaded again.
There’s nothing like being the boss and having to clean up someone else’s mess.
Cuppa, if Gillard forms a government, the MSM will get worse. Media management is one of most important issue Labor faces.Abbott would have a very short presser, repeat the same lines over and over, and ensure they made it to the news, including the action man stunt of the day. Gillard had lengthy pressers which inevitably were full of negative questions and be reported in a confused way
briefly, put very simply the fact is this. Abbott was at the time running out of steam. PollyTrend showed Labor had begun an up trend. A professional advising the party would have advised to wait a few more weeks. There was plenty of time until October.
Its as simple as that. It was part hidden agenda, part anger at Rudd’s style, part conveniently bad polling. But if you recall, Howard went through worse polling and went on to win without his party spitting the dummy.
Rudd didn’t undertsand the senate – same problem as Whitlam.
Mind you, senators are hard to understand.
Very true VP. The health and hospitals reform was just one example of a Rudd botch job. Poor strategic planning, bungled presentation to the public and quickly dumped and moved on to the next story.
Of course, silly me.
vivi–Hockey energy–maybe methane
What did Gillard do to actually convince voters that the government after Ruddhad found its way? Compromise deal with miners worth billions, underdeveloped E Timor idea and the CA?? Huh?
VP @604,
please don’t underestimate the power of the state bureaucrats. Rudd did a good job. Not a perfect one. But he did even bring WA on board (few remember this thanks, sadly, to the leadership change).
GFC made people think more about their own hip pockets instead of the planet. When the perception was that we were all flying happily along, people can be magnanimous. But as soon as they think things are going to pinch — they withdraw.
They withdrew.
Cuppa great point, if we lose Maxine with her talent, the party needs a damn good look at themselves. She should get a job using her extensive talents and have a safer seat lined up for her next GE.
She eliminated the rodent, it should never be forgotten.
Cud I agree. Howard had the MSM support that Rudd didnt but Rudd overcame this in 2007
As a complete outsider on the Rudd issue, it looked like he was gone the moment he declared the game more or less lost on the ETS and Climate Change. How he managed to avoid pointing out the obvious fact that it was because the Coalition had acted in bad faith- aginst the core values of the Westminster system – and trashed the Westminster principles underpinning the role of “Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition” and replaced it with the disgusting slogan, “The Opposition’s job is to oppose.” And then doing nothing else but oppose knowing full well that the Murdoch attack dog press would aid and abet them.
In this Rudd was an abject failure.
Couldn’t have anything to do with the fact he kept his party on side, treated them (mostly) with respect and had them believing he could pull through and win?
ltep Howard was also autocratic but they liked that he won elections, so they put up with him
I’d just remind you that the original text was words to the effect that the Rudd government had lost its way in terms of putting forward its message. NOT that it had lost its way in terms of bad policy. That latter was media spin. Gillard actually pointed this out on a number of occasions but the press relentless persisted in not reporting this important difference.
Whether Labor get in or not, they should seriously revise their PR strategy. The Opp made enormous gains by calling everything “Labor Spin” from the first day, and continued to do so until the election.
Now Rudd is not leader, there is no need to be afraid of a few spin accusations. Damn it all, everyone else does it.
There was something in Rudd’s administration that tried to be holier than thou (ie than the Opp) on everything and it made them look weak. (Another example is the no-spend on govt advertising even when it was desperately needed.)
The reality is that it was almost impossible to get anything done in Government.
The briefs for the PMO about the briefs that had gone missing in the PMO went missing.
Rudd, like most men, could do one thing at a time. Whivh is fine if you can delegate. But he couldn’t.
William
At great personal sacrifice, I trawled through Bolt’s archives and found the reference he made to his leaked internal Labor polling.
Let’s just say I was right.
…….35% PV for Labor……less than 30% in WA, PV imploding in QLD & NSW…….-20% net satisfaction and decaying with every passing week…..the numbers, the numbers, the numbers….I can assure you, in WA, the word “Rudd” had become a term of abuse….
VP @616, Rudd didn’t anticipate the danger of Abbott taking control. He had his mind too firmly fixed on Copenhagen.
Very true, Andrew. If there is one thing I will say the Liberals do well, it’s at spinning, the mantra-like chanting of slogans and getting the soundbites out there. Of course, they have a friendly media onside making the task that much less onerous and their efforts the more effective. Labor doesn’t have that luxury so must work twice as hard and clever at the task.
Here’s how I interpreted the Labor polling reports at the time:
Which is actually pretty much what happened at the election, except the NSW and Queesland results were even worse for Labor, Victoria somewhat better, and SA enormously better (granted that the 8 per cent quoted above seemed a bit excessive). All of which can easily be explained in terms of the leadership change, which outraged Queensland and reminded NSW of the worst aspects of state Labor, but went quite down well in Victoria and very well in SA.
Radguy, That is why you pick a good team and trust their decision making. Sure you have to clean up after them occasionally but that is part of being in charge, that is why they get the big bucks.
You try running a complex business where one person makes all the decisions and excludes all the highly skilled professionals within the team from the process. It just doesn’t work.
The other weakness early in the Rudd term was allowing the Opposition to get out of sitting on Fridays because of their dummyspit and cardboard cutout circus. It was another case where the Tories were allowed to run all over Labor in the parliament and was very damaging.
Wrong. Go back and study PollyTrend. In the week before Rudd was axed, the trend had bottomed out and was just starting to head upwards.
I’ll say it twice. The trend had reversed and would have continued to pick up leadership change or not.
Very true, but the reality is this is what you get with a rolling 6 year Senate term and a bunch of born to rule assholes on the other side.
But what if he couldn’t trust them? They turned out to be untrustworthy, so I think that this argument is unfair.
Nathenatically you can;t know that – since the series ends at that point.
It may just have reached a false flat before trending down again.
first derivative = 0 does not a minimum guarantee
cud chewer 499
Also, Rudd should have had a complete clean out of all departmental heads who were remnants of the Howard nightmare. There were too many seat warmers there as a result of Howard’s patronage. I think even Rudd himself said at one stage that was one thing he regretted not doing.
Another factor I could not understand about Kevin was his overseas postings of Liberal MPs or leaving in their posts such lightweights (no pun intended!!) as Amanda Vanstone and company. There may be some protocol involved there; I’m not sure.
Agree that government’s many successes and achievements certainly did not get the exposure they deserved, albeit mainly because of a hostile MSM.
I go away for half a day and when I come back we are dealing out the ministries? Anything happened while I was out or is this our natural optimism surfacing?
Diogenes, Bolt eventually got around to providing full details of what he was provided with. You’d do better to look at that than at the selective highlights be picked out in the initial post you’ve uncovered, without necessarily having the best interest of Labor at heart.
The Friday sittings had nothing to do with the Senate. They were House of Representatives days only.
This is horse and cart.
He could trust them to be competent ministers – otherwise he shouldn’t have appointed them.
Not all decisions need to be made in the PMO.
Lack of trust breeds dicontent
William
Your report is quite different to what Bolt reported.
It specifically says Brand was gone and Perth was close. And that Labor could lose 4 seats in SA. That would have been an absolute rout.
It wasn’t even close to the final result.
One week is hardly a trend and your second point is pure speculation, you can’t possibly know if this was going to happen.
Radguy, I think David Marr covered this in his biographical stuff on Rudd.
The best leader of a team doesn’t do any of the work – he/she just supervises and only steps in when required.
Remember that some admin work was held back for Julia to deal with when Rudd was overseas, just so they could get it done.
I’m not convinced either way, William. All I know is that things would have been different had Labor realised what Murdoch was up to and defended itself from the start. I think the leadership change (pro or con) had little to do with the underlying anger being beaten up in the media and the way that even supposedly neutral sources like news radio were writing lines like “pink batts debacle” unquestioningly – as if the issue had long ago been settled.
People were angry at the Labor brand more so than Rudd and the jury is still out on whether a new leader much much of a difference at all in sum total. Psephos can argue all he likes that Julia stopped it from being a worse defeat but the reality is that even he doesn’t know for sure – there’s no way to re-run the experiment.
All I’m sure of is that the leadership thing distract people from paying attention to the failure of Labor to defend itself and the toxicity of the media.
Jon – Personally, I outsource very little. The skills just aren’t there for a reasonable price.
My business is extremely complex. PB is an enjoyable distraction from it, although I am getting more and more OH glares!
who threw away everything his father achieved because of his lust for power. a man who ignored every precept of aristotlean government in his monomanaiacal quest to become god-emperor of the known world. a man who cared not the slightest for progression or for the state of his own homeland and cared more for drinking than planning for the future. alexander was a militarily successful george bush who owes his place in history largely to a centuries long rehabilitation by successive roman emperors who simply wanted to claim his mantle. if aristotle taught him anything, it certainly didn’t take.
The poor bugger it seems was attempting to rise above “politics” and show the conservatives howa decent, ethical PM operates. In the face of an Opposition completely devoid of such noble characteristics, such a gesture was never going to help.
I don’t know where Bolt got Brand from – it obviously wasn’t covered in the poll, which targeted the 40 seats with Labor margins of under 5 per cent and Coalition seats with margins under 2 per cent, i.e. not Brand. Probably his source was extrapolating from the Hasluck swing. I do acknowledge that the SA results were a bit hard to believe, but it is equally clear that Gillard was a boon to Labor there.
The -20% approval rating would suggest otherwise.
While we’re on this subject, reportedly Labor were concerned they could lose the safe Labor seat of Canberra to the Liberals under Rudd due to a “deep loathing of Rudd within the APS”. Once you start looking at losing such safe seats you’re in a bit of a pickle.
William
Are you saying that Andrew Bolt didn’t necessarily have the best interest of Labor at heart.
Yes, I meant him rather than you. Little joke.
The point is that Labor does not have a set of enforcers in the parliament strong enough to either force the opposition to play ball or sanction them severely if their sookiness overcomes the Tory side of the parliament. The Tories should have sat Fridays and been penalised if not able to do so, instead they were rewarded for their childishness.
@641,
But history tells us that the trend continued upwards until the leaks.
Yes or course, you cannot scientifically prove that under Rudd the uptrend would not have then given up and wavered and fallen. But its unlikely. And the underlying theory is that the uptrend had more to do with policy issues. Abbott’s honeymoon dissipating. The anger over more expensive smokes dissipating, and so on. My point is that a new leader at that point could not have made much difference when the press beat ups were about waste and mining tax. Its very doubtful the new leader had much to do with the continuance of the uptrend.
William
We never cared much about the mining tax here, esp in the seat of Adelaide. The idea that Kate Ellis was going to be tossed looks very dodgy.
My God, are we still beating this dead horse?
573
I’d prefer Mark Dreyfus QC from Victoria. Robert McClelland is an absolute potato head, and a boring waffler; if Julia forms a government, he should go to the backbench.
But isn’t that the point — whatever anyone thinks emotionally — Rudd was becoming electoral poison. Sad, but true.
Cuppa @653,
The last thing the Murdoch Press (and for that matter journalists in general) would ever do is report good news, or commend rudd for being above politics. Small minds and nasty minds..
Or chicken and egg. I agree with you here VP.
One thing that I would ask – how many of these marginals contained a high concentration apathetic voters?
I think that this is important.
I do not want our country in the hands of the malleable apathetic.
Steve, the alternative would’ve just been to ensure a quorum was present on Fridays at least until the change was bedded down. Giving up and dropping it was just the first sign of Rudd being unable to stand by a politically tricky situation. It was always drop and run at the first sign of trouble.
Murdoch was trying to poision Rudd’s brand as well as Labor’s brand. My contention is though, that it was the attack on Labor in general, and the beat ups over the batts/BER in particular that was poison in the electorate.
Radguy, mine too, with a lot more complexity that one person alone can get their head around, I spend a great deal of time and money recruiting the best brains and I trust them to do the work. All I do is stitch it all together and manage the schedule and cop flak from clients when it goes pear shaped.
Too right Pebbles…
@655, see 667
Yes, if Gillard forms a government of some sort early next week, the MSM will be even worse over the next 3 years and they will actively encourage an Abbott opposition to be obstructionist!
Far be it from me to tell you what’s what about South Australia, but the word from my sources was that the mining tax was absolute poison there due to the threat it posed to the Olympic Dam expansion.
@661 dead horses are fun to beat, until they explode
Well I can only speak of my own non-scientific research from my “focus group” (a latte sippers club of non-political types). They were astonished by the fact that they could go to bed one night with the PM elected by us in place, and wake up the next morning with a PM appointed by others. From that moment onwards the Greens became the Party of choice for this focus group. Maybe if the election was 12 months or more down the track, this disengagement from the main political partys may have dissipated, but the sentiment lasted up to election day.
I’m not suggesting that my focus group is representative of the Australian population at large, or of any population in any marginal seat. However, it would be interesting to track through the Polls (i personally prefer NewsPoll) the Greens vote from the moment Rudd was removed to the election. Has anyone done that?
Speaking of Rudd, he was today opening another BER project at a school in his electorate.
On this Kevin vs Julia thing. I side with cud chewer, with reservations.
Kevin’s faults are there to see:
On a personal level: self-importance, insecure persona leading to tendency to fawn to media, over-reliance on ethical/moral principles which you could never be convinced was totally sincere.
On a politically strategic level: many dumb decisions, the worst of which was to put off revisiting an ETS for 3 years. It’s possible, though, this may have not been wholly his decision. The failure to prosecute labor’s good economic record falls equally across the senior management of the party, in my view. Latham made the same stupid mistake in 2004 in not defending the Hawke/Keating record. The other political failure was the inability to defend attacks on the pink batts and BER cost overruns – both very minor faults in the scheme of things.
On the positive side, Rudd was a brilliant debater, far better than Julia, provided he kept to ‘serious’ mode and cut out the ‘shake of the sauce bottle’ crap. He made Abbott look very ordinary in the only genuine debate of the cycle.
Policy wise, alp’s achievements were stellar. Rudd should claim his fair share of this.
Having said that, no person is expendable and Julia has shown she’s of stern stuff through a recent hard campaign. We should all get behind her.
The main reason for the alp’s poor election was by far the undue influence of the MSM. But the government didn’t help itself with some poor strategic decisions. I agree with cud that the leadership switch should have been held off a couple of weeks, and the election held much later than it was.
Focus groups, polling, back room srategies etc are common to both parties and are part of the political process. That won’t change.
Next week we might have a new political corpse to pick to pieces.
The bogans living in marginal seats carry a lot more weight than they deserve.
William: How do you account for Kingston and Wakefield becoming safe Labor seats after the election?
evan14.. yay! And the tories were so fond of the schoolboy tactic of going “but they havent built many yet.. “. They even got caught out on several occasions saying “not one connection to the NBN”
William
The progressive latte-sippers in Adelaide were very happy to see a mining tax. Down in Wakefield, Hindmarsh etc it was more of an issue.
It was. Mike Rann came out and said it was (and he is one of the most loyal Premiers to federal Labor.) In fact, I recall Diogenes posting Mike Rann’s comments on here.
Absolutely. Here’s a an exchange in 2008 between Jon Faine and Bruce Guthrie editor of the Herald Sun newspaper:
JON FAINE: Have things moved on and have some of the staples of the media in the Howard era worn out their usefulness as we enter a Rudd era? And we’ll see just who you come up with that you think might be the names involved in that particular description. 1300 222 774. I’m going to talk in particular about columnists. 1300 222 774, and Bruce you have some notorious ones of your own? Although I’m going to here, stick my neck right out, and say I think The Australian newspaper has perhaps the most loyal band of Howard supporters amongst its current crop of columnists. And you have to wonder how they’re quite going to adjust, and cope, and fit in when the people they are so well connected to, are no longer in office.
BRUCE GUTHRIE: Yes, I’d probably take issue with the word notorious Jon, by the way. I’d say notable rather than notorious.
JON FAINE: I’ll concede on that.
BRUCE GUTHRIE: Thank you. Look I think you’re right. The Australian for many years was probably positioned as almost, some people called it, the Prime Minister’s newspaper under John Howard. It’s an interesting question because in some senses the country shifted but in others we really elected a very conservative Labor Prime Minister. I’ve got no doubt that The Australian probably is looking at its stable, probably every paper is.
JON FAINE: Do you know that or are you just – you think it’s logical that they are?
BRUCE GUTHRIE: Well I understand that Dennis Shanahan is Washington bound, so that will bring a change there.
JON FAINE: He was chief political correspondent. But it’s more the columnists, the sort of Christopher Pearson’s and Janet Albrechtsens and Mark Steyn was the American columnist who was used in the paper yesterday and so on. And you think, well, it kind of represents the thinking that’s out of step with the result of the election in a way, some of the material that those people are very much making their own and their own beat.
BRUCE GUTHRIE: I guess it comes down to whether you think newspapers need to be in step with the Government?
JON FAINE: Oh no, not with the Government with the electorates.
BRUCE GUTHRIE: With the times. I would have thought The Australian will look at it on the margins, that is unashamedly a conservative newspaper and it would say its audience is still there. Some of them shifted to vote for Labor. Indeed The Australian endorsed the vote for Labor.
So Guthrie admits they are an “unashamedly conservative newspaper”. And I can’t the transcript prior to that interview where Faine had a journo/editor(?) from the Australian (fairly certain a female) who also said something along the lines of “we are proudly to the right of the political spectrum”
How can the Murdoch media argue they are anything but biased towards the political Right Wing of any country they carry out business in?
Sorry about the “bold” text – I think there was something in my copy/paste that cause that
Peter, the Greens surge began well before Rudd’s removal. At least as far back as the dropping of the CPRS and the Afghan asylum application freeze (which the “Rudd is the darling of the left” crowd conveniently forget). The first couple of polls after Gillard took over the leadership saw the Greens vote drop, but it rose again over time.
cause=caused – and I haven’t even started to drink yet
dedalus @676,
Agree with that post, totally.
Thanks.
It appears that the ECSA will be doing its redistribution next year. It should be interesting.
Beg to disagree Anony.
He had the forethought to marry his soldiers to conquered country’s women in order to breed a generation whose loyalties would not be solely tied to their homeland.
He knew how to use various talents to advantage, in himself and his men.
He showed something that Rudd did not, an infectious desire to prove that if you attacked without fear, you’d find favour. Though much of the detail has now gone foggy, I spent quit a bit of my UG working on Alexander and like Tuthmosis III in Egypt, I was greatly impressed by his ‘modern thinking’ in an ancient backdrop.
His drinking was his downfall — true — but like all great people, they are greatly flawed as well.
The media treatment of Rudd and Labor since Rudd was elected party leader did not give them sufficient warning of how Murdoch would behave throughout Labor’s tenure?
How else could it be described after Rudd conceded with minimal resistance and his mea culpa.
Yup. Chloe will have fun in 2014…
Anyone who can`t see “http://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/apps/news/?sectionID=6″ in 688 needs their eyes checked.
Peter Young
The first Newspoll taken after the change to Julia showed the following
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/new-pm-restores-alp-vote/story-e6frgczf-1225884979872
I’m pretty sure that the Greens vote steadily increased in subsequent polls.
What’s this we business.?
Jon, there is no training regime for my occupation. No books. Not one. No associations, unions or anything. I need to sweep, understand conics, and have some serious balls.
You are lucky to have good employees that you can trust, but I bet your pool is larger and better than Kev’s was.
The only pool that I can have is one that I create myself.
Yeah, I’m entirely ready to believe the Adelaide result in internal polling was way off. But you’d expect that – there’s nothing magical about internal polling, it’s prone to the same margins of error as published polls, and they get pretty high once you start looking at seat-level stuff. Equally the polling was said to have Labor winning Ryan and Dickson, which was never going to happen. Which is why I did what I always do in these situations: look at state-level trends.
A) Gillardmania. B) A national trend which few have remarked upon, where Labor actually did pretty well in the mortgage belts.
#631
What the hell did the Mining Tax have to do with Bennelong ?
Was removing Rudd from PM likely to increase Labor’s vote in Bennelong ?
IMHO Arbib and Bitar are complete iDIOts…….
George, the privately-owned media are “allowed” to be as biased as they wish. In fact they’ve a licence to do anything they like, so long as it’s within the letter of the law. As consumers we have the option to boycott those media with whom we disagree, as well as advertisers that sponsor that media.
The public broadcasters are a different story. That’s why we MUST keep the pressure on the ABC (and SBS) to conduct themselves with integrity, balance, etc. Any and every discretion must be brought to their attention, as well as the wider public’s attention if possible.
Just about everything you want to know about black holes: Library of questions about Black Holes WARNING: 1. Some of these are quite old, and most are mathematically feasible explanations of scientific conjecture – many quite controversial. 2. Such theories are far from stable. 3. These theories are being constantly challenged.
Was our universe born inside a black hole in another universe? is very recent (13 July), with room for comments.
And another (3 August) challenges the Big Bang theory. There was no Big Bang at the start of the universe, says physicist
Ah yes, fellow SpaceSci & SciFi tragics. Another “variable lightspeed” or Light speed invariance is a remarkable illusion theory. Check out the bias to anything that does not fit the dominant paradigm!
Of course, being a SciFi addict dreaming of travel to those galaxies far far away -and a lot more interested in what the LHC (if it works) means to stardrives than any particle, Boson or otherwise – there are Faster-than-light theories.
Well, OK, it’s not OzPol; but I promised to try to stay rational until we know Who Rools!
And it’s a great mindstretching exercise to recover from the same old … same old … same old … would you believe, I’m even missing the “disappeared” Tories & Trools (well, some of them) arguments that have been repeating themselves since I came home & switched on my neglected Leopard (purrrr).
Jesus. You left leaning Bludgers wanna weep, forget Labor’s near defeat in federal parliament and look at the midterm polling for the Democrats in the US. It looks like it may be a bloodbath. Especially as Labor Day is just around the corner. Even Barbara Boxer is in trouble!
William
I’ve just tuned in so you may have already answered this somewhere. I’m just wondering if you’re prepared to make a prediction regarding the decision of the indies.
Er.. professionally. Doing some simple research and discovering that it wasn’t a debacle. Its one thing for Rudd to express personal sympathy over an industrial accident or a house fire. Its stretching things to declare the entire scheme as a debacle. The way news radio especially ran with Murdoch’s lines without question makes their entire outfit seem ameture.
Bilbo, you must have been asleep in the last 5 years. Anyway, i am off to China Town for a banquet. it beats chatting with you bludgers here.
I think they’ll back Labor, Darn. But what the hell would I know. It’s entirely down to personal psychology, which isn’t my domain.
TSOP..
Yep the same obstructionist tactics backed by an even nastier media. Works a treat
This is our future too if we are not too careful.
You will observe that most of the anti-RSPT campaigning was aimed at non-miners ie. “it will hurt the economy and push your grocery prices up.”
Cuppa, I agree with you – but I worry that with any government having influence over who ends up in the ABC’s board, I don’t see this changing. And in fact, outside of the ABC, who out there is going to bring the lack of balance within the ABC to the general public’s attention?
TSOp
How else can we get it to stand up again.
The British Labour Party are picking their new leader over the next few weeks – will it be David, or Ed Miliband?
OK, off to dinner!
Thanks once again to William and all the regulars for an informative, entertaining forum!
Monday should be a riot here, either way!
ozpol tragic @ 537,
roman democracy never existed; either during the republic or the empire.
as you noted, during the republic rome was rule by the patricians, the optimates
and then the optimates and the novus homo. however, they were never concerned about governing for the plebians. the patricians were only concerned about maintaining the majesty of the res publica and their domination. the plebians were only involved when a patrician family (or a demagogue) couldn’t get its way; so they turned to the mob. the plebs were always pawns.
during the empire, rome was effectively ruled by a single man, the emperor, and his ‘civil’ service, his household slaves. the patricians no longer mattered as they had been totally decimated by civil war and imperial purgings. the senate during the empire were a rubber stamp, a mere shadow of its former republican glory, filled with the emperor’s yes men and sycophants!
when the republic became an empire, the plebs no longer mattered. what mattered was having the legions behind you, whose shadow put everyone in their place.
While I will wait until after the election to give a post mortem, I will say the illusion-of-truth effect really works well over there. Increasing numbers of Americans are starting to believe Obama is a radical Muslim operative and that everything was peachy until he was sworn in.
Yes evan, imagine if Labor had gone through that long drawn out process in Australia to replace Rudd? Personally I’m in favour of how we change leaders here over places like the UK and Canada.
Watching UK news today, it appears that the News Ltd phone bugging has reared its head again as a political issue.
David would be my bet. Considering he has been groomed for the last few years and was touted as an alternative to Brown.
Interestingly, one of the minor candidates is called Abbott. It would be interesting to have an Abbott opposition there as well as here. (Although it is unlikely she’ll win)
Gee pebs, what are people going to say if the boats start coming from the US?
Just a harkening back to the bunch of tradies I’ve had here at the house in recent times. Most of them indicated they were going to vote Liberal due to the “waste” of the BER (even though it had either directly or indirectly benefited them personally) and dislike of Julia etc. etc.
One came around today to have a look at some additional work (shhh!… his boss doesn’t know) and commented, as he was marking up his drawing, that if he got his carpentry quotes as wrong as Robb had got his policy costing quotes he’d be out of business in a flash.
He has now changed his tune and wants the Indies to put Gillard in, as Labor is obviously better from an economic management point of view. They “get their quotes right”.
This was unsolicited, incidentally.
Contrary little sod… I wish he’d have thought of that before the election… him and a few tens of thousands of his mates. I did try to tell him what was going on but all he’d say to me pre-election was, “The Libs are better for business.”
It goes to show what endlessly repeating “We will always be lower on (xxx)” can do to peoples’ heads. The Libs seem so cocksure of themselves that slow thinkers believe they must be telling the truth. I mean, no-one could be that self-confident and not be able to back it up, could they? This line won (and wins) the Libs millions of voters every election, especially the young ones who have never been through the kabuki opera of policy promise busting “Black Holes”, suddenly discovered, immediately after just about any election the Libs win.
Ladies and Gentlemen, this is the Australian Voter.
george..
Cuppa, I agree with you – but I worry that with any government having influence over who ends up in the ABC’s board
Rudd was above politics and appointed non partisan professionals to the ABC board. It will be interesting to see if the remaining Howard partisan plants are replaced (when their term comes due next year) with more professionals, or if Julia will be tempted to do a bit of “culture change” there. Frankly, i wouldn’t mind. I’ve had enough of Howard’s destructive legacy.
My focus group must be contrarians. </i.
Personally, I’m tickled pink that nobody wants to discuss American politics here. May it always be thus.
Great marginal seats campaign conceived and executed by Karl Bitar?
Maybe not……..:)
Good point.
Although I do hate that phrase. Beating a dead horse being a bad thing implies that beating a live horse is good. I can’t condone that line of thought…
Did you get some shut eye, VP? Feel better?
and Budget Black Holes will always be bigger under the Coalition
all ALP members must be trained at borth to say this in response to anyone who says “Interest rates will always be lower under the Coalition”
Sorry
Utter crap!
Didn’t you ever see Gladiator?
Roman democracy was knocked off by corrupt emperors. Only gladiators fought for freedom.
Sheesh….
The Fibs spent so much time & money to take out Maxine in Bennelong, that they forgot about Robertson, which should have been easy pickings after the Belinda Neal night at Iguanas fiasco (a suspected Fibs set up since the Stat Dec documents were provided on Sunday from the local Fib office).
From AEC website :
Robertson : O’Neill, Deborah ; 51.02% Last Election ; 50.09%
i.e. swing to ALP of 0.93%
Finns
So am I. But Adelaide’s isn’t nearly as good as Sydney’s.
BB @716, I don’t suppose you had the heart to ask him if he believes everything he reads in the press, and if that means he is now skeptical about all the other things the Libs/murdoch tried to sell him.
Ha ha Jeff Kennett, Hawthorn going down to Freo. I hope that depresses you good and proper.
2 points
1. If any of you are genuinely “in the know” without revealing who you are , can you put to rest this constant re visiting of Rudds demise?
2. Has anyone come up with an idea as to why Murdoch turned against Rudd and ALP? Wasn’y too far away when Rudd was dining with Rupert in NY. What is the catalyst?
Don’t take it to heart, TSOP. Freo wins. Yay.
William @719 uhoh.. you’ve revealed your worst fear.. room 101! Yay!
Too right.
That said, I do think that some people over emphasise the ABC Board’s role – unless they’re personally behind the hiring of Fran Kelly, Chris Toolman, Melissa Clarke and the other Tory boosters.
It’s just a sad mix of crap journalism, paranoia about being “balanced” (therefore propping up unequal opponents like Abbott), and cutting and pasting from News Ltd.
But whether it’s planned systematic bias – or just what I’ve described above – the outcome is the same – shameless pro-Tory coverage funded by our tax dollars!
In the meantime, all we can do to keep our blood pressure under control is to remember:
Report that Katter will back Coalition tomorrow but WO will back Gillard on Tues leads to suspension of betting.
What is going on here?
I go to work and it’s Greens v Labor v Coalition on this site
I come back and it’s Rome v Ancient Greece v Macedonia!
For the record when I was young and studying Ancient Greek History Alexander was one of my heroes, especially in “military tactics”, but yes with time I can see that perhaps his image was “whitewashed” a bit by historians.
Watched the Marlon Brando Alexander film on Black Saturday afternoon (not bad) – the more recent one was on late at night recently but it was going to finish in the wee hours so I’ll have to get it out on DVD some time – what I saw of one of the battles (Issus, Granicus, Arbela??) looked fairly realistic from memory.
The more intriguing question is what would have happened if he lived past 33?
Won’t do.
And footy season ended for me last weekend!
Good to see Fremantle win
William
Don’t stir the hornet’s nest!
Perhaps Labor was coming off a deceptively low base in Robertson, because Neal was unpopular there even before she became member.
BB……the LNP have a “Bunnings” approach to politics…..they promise everyday low prices. This is a very strong proposition: value is never out of fashion. The only time it doesn’t work is when the goods are found to be faulty…..but people will remember the low prices the next time they shop.
Labor need to find some matching themes that match quality, equity and value…..Quality healthcare is more affordable under Labor (as anyone who has had to pay for private health care can confirm); quality education is more attainable for everyone under Labor…..
George,
Well, it doesn’t hurt to highlight indiscretions when they occur on public blogs such as this one. Poll Bludger is, I believe, one of the country’s most influential political blogs, so this platform is as good as any for naming and shaming the ABC when it goes wrong, and probably better than most. William might have a different view, so it’s up to him I guess.
The Friends of the ABC, a volunteer organisation dedicated to preserving the integrity of the ABC as an independent public broadcaster, suggests that complaints be made to 1) the ABC itself, 2) to the wider media (letters to the editor, calls to talkback shows etc).
Ad Astra’s blog, The Political Sword, has a section dedicated to monitoring the doings of the ABC. Contributions always welcomed. Link is below:
ABC WATCH
http://www.thepoliticalsword.com/page/ABC-Watch.aspx
Too true. It’s insane how it works there.
It reminds me of the poor Democrats here – remember how that worked out!
So Katter is definitely making an announcement tomorrow?
@733, oh dear, Centerbet needs more gamblers willing to bet on the coalition by the sound of that remark
I suggest in Katter’s case even a psychologist couldn’t help. A psychiatrist with years of experience working in mental institutions would probably not be of much assistance either.
So who do you guys think will be elected Consul? I think Quintus Fabius Vibulanus looks a winner. Vibulanus/Quinctius! Let’s make Rome strong again!
He is????? I thought they were announcing together on Monday or Tues.
And he knows this? How. Bookies should butt out of politics.
briefly @739, the troika of productivity, education and infrastructure is where its at. Find a nice word to sum it up
ltep
freo – welcome to the mcg and a slaughter by the cats on friday
If it’s true he’s going to back the Coalition, only for Windsor/Oakie to back Labor on Monday – imagine the hysteria we’ll see on the ABC and News Ltd on Sunday night/Monday morning.
They’ll wet themselves with the (thankfully fleeting) possibility of an Abbott PMship.
Watch the smile on Toolman and co’s faces (if you can stomach it).
Maybe they got my telepathic message. “Get the fudge on with it!”
AEC Website :
Two party preferred.
ALP : 49.99% ; 5,776,696
Lib/NAT : 50.01% ; 5,779,595
Obviously, the LIB/NATs should be the government (according to the LIB/NATs logic).
Surely this will influence the Indies.
Peter @744, katter isn’t *that* complicated. He’s relatively uneducated, probably of modest intelligence. And he’s a populist – his views reflect those of his largely rural and often poorly educated voters. The interest rates/exchange rate thing isn’t a sign of madness – its just that the debate over deregulation never really reached that physically far.
Not to mention Nostrils smugly gloating.
So with Katter going back to the coalition, the last remaining element of the Bjelke Petersen regime goes back home and loses all possible influence. Good.
If Katter goes alone with his “minority report” tomorrow, it’s going to be a belter of a presser for Windsor and Oakeshott.
I am concerned that, in the name of “Unity” the other two head over to Abbott’s camp.
Crisis of Capital
Some of you may enjoy this – it is very clever!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOP2V_np2c0
Umm steady on folks.. the suggestion that Katter is going with the coaltion was made by a bookie. One large sack of salt, please.
The guys that have stage managed the way in which each Indie has peeled off – ought to get jobs writing scripts for a TV drama series.
I’m sure they’ve all discussed where their heads are at and would announce together if they were all on the same page.
Who knows though… Monday can’t come soon enough.
Briefly
re Kingston & Wakefield federal NSW right machine stayed away so they were excellent for Lab.
Who cares Pebbles? You will never have seen such intense scrutiny of a Tory Government in your life as if they wriggle into power here and the next election will be a case of boot on the other foot. It would be a rerun of the Goss years, Tory one term, Labor eversince.
If they are going to split up, you’d expect them to hold separate announcements. I’d view Katter going Lib tomorrow by himself as a sign Oakeshott and Windsor aren’t going to go with him.
Surely when Katter says “there’s three of us here” he means that they are going to make a joint decision. He must know that if he backs Abbott and the other two back Gillard then he will get nothing for his electorate, whereas if he sticks with the others he will get some, though not all, of what he wants.
The remaining 2 indies would have a valid argument that Abbott could not provide stable government, thus justifying their support for Labor, if this occurs.
I read an article that said Katter was more likely to go Labor – made sense to me so why are people saying he’ll go for the Rabbot?
Sorry I’ve been offline for a few hours & haven’t read all the threads.
I will have to work tomorrow so I can keep Monday & Tues as clear as I can!
That latest comment from the Centrebet guy is yet more evidence that these bookies are trying to insert themselves into the unfolding political drama. He may be doing it to stir interest in betting but it is thoroughly improper in my view that he is floating theories about what he believes is going on.
Psephos
They were still saying yesterday that they could all go their separate ways.
Lol cud – I bet lots of fools will be going for those chips!
A particularly moronic comment. Surely you know that SA Labor is ruled by the evil Rightist Don Farrell, who put both Rishworth and Champion in their seats. Voters don’t give a toss about any of this stuff.
Thanks alias
So you are a better man than Bob Katter.
Ch 10 news reporting it should be tomorrow afternoon.
573
Less than 3,000 votes difference. I seems that the 2PP is yet to include the other 8 and so the ALP will likely win slightly.
Interestingly, Tasmania Labor is now arguing that it would have obtained the funding for Hobart hospital, irrespective of Wilkie’s intervention.
LET the games begin.
I know that! I was pulling your legs
Perhaps Katter will announce he’s decided to back neither side, assisting Windsor and Oakeshott to announce support for Labor.
Why would Bob Katter be such a dill as to *knowingly* deal himself out of minority govt influence?
This rumour is piffle.
I suspect, but could be wrong, that the NZ earthquake has out the brakes on the betting. It is all about turnover.
Katter has kept Mum until now — why would a report leak to a wagering firm, and not be seen anywhere else?
The Ghost would have heard, if the rumour were true, methinks.
So is Katter purposely trying to set up a one term Tory Government?
NO – Just more intelligent, more ethical and less insane.
Ch 10 said tomorrow afternoon or Monday morning a the latest.
Oakeshott rated both parties as 4/10!
Sorry what is Ch 10 reporting? That all three will announce tomorrow? Or just Katter?
Yeah, being popular local members in a Gillard friendly city didn’t help.
Yes, probably by 10,000 votes or so. Wentworth should add some votes in for the Coalition (from casual glance that is now second least counted, after Lingiari).
Nice new threads, jenauthor!
Anyone who can see “573″ instead of “753″ in 776 needs their eyes checked.
It’s a worry. I certainly agree with Ruawake that betting on elections shouldn’t happen – but unfortunately, banning it would not achieve that outcome so I am afraid we’re stuck with it.
Might be nice to regulate it though – bookies shouldn’t be running election/political commentary for books they’re running for example!
Betting has ruined the NRL (referees make some very strange decisions in certain games) – and cricket of course, not to mention the thoroughly corrupt Italian Soccer (Serie A??) – let’s hope our political landscape does not go the same way!
Re the big decision:
For ALP:
A1) WO have sent out strong signals of negativity towards LNP. To a lesser extent, K also. So they’d have to explain that if they go LNP.
A2) ALP policies are a better fit on balance for Windsor & Oakshotte. Particularly a price on carbon.
A3) On the carbon price thing, W & O would rather be in the tent so as to influence a carbon price policy modification. If they vote for Abbott, there’s no carbon price period.
A3) To a lesser extent, NBN. Katter would want this also. But note, Abbott will promise a better deal on a network than he originally proposed.
A4) K has heaped praise on some ALP achievements (power grid, a bridge, NBN)
A5) Stability: 77-73 ALP beats 76-74 LNP
A6) KOW don’t like the Nats
A7) KOW have huge personal majorities, which gives them extra independence.
A8) Oakeshott has sympathy for assylum seakers.
A9) Katter is Rudd’s buddy. Also Katter is a true maverick who might shaft LNP out of sheer buggery.
A10) LNP shot itself in the costings foot – plus they blew the budget another $1 bil on a hospital
A11) LNP has overplayed the pleading game – they look a bit desparate. By contrast, Julia has played a cooler hand. Add to this Abbott is shifty and a weathervane. W might suspect him of a darker motive (like an early election).
For LNP:
L1) KOW (particulalry W) wouldn’t like a too-powerful Greens. This might be the main reason to go with LNP.
L2) KOW wouldn’t want to upset their own electors. Particularly O, who has a career to consider. But see A6.
L3) Innate conservatism of W bubbling to surface – O more progressive so maybe not an issue.
My prediction: ALP probability of about 0.6
Most likely to go with ALP: Katter
Most likely to go with LNP: Windsor
Toughest decision personally: Oakeshott
Widlcard possibility: amigos do a Wilkie, go with LNP but refuse to guarantee no-confidence. Gillard goes into the house on a bluff and Abbott can’t muster the no-confidence numbers. Election called due to unworkable parliament.
Would Mr Centrebet have a financial benefit depending on who forms Govt?
py @783
I wasn’t talking to you.
jenauthor @ 689,
agree.
very callous to even mention bush in the same breathe as AtG.
alexander led from the front at all times, whether it was in battle or in government. whereas, bush led from approximately 2000 miles behind the front line.
unfortunately, AtG had too many competing interests to deal with: namely, the greeks were xenophobic and didn’t want to have anything to do with the macedonians and the barbarians (anyone who wasn’t greek but in this case, persian), the macedonians wanted to be master of the universe and couldn’t understand why they couldn’t be, and trying to persuade the persians that they weren’t going to be treated as the conquered.
AtG had conquered most of the the civilised world when he succumbed to illness at the spritely age of 33.
@774, yes
Thanks — have a manic interest in Ancient Egypt — Tuthmosis esp.
In fairness to the Centrebet guy, he gave that explanation as his reason for suspending betting on the election outcome. He’s not going to make any more money as a result of the announcement.
Still, it was a bold comment.
“boring” – just a suggestion
Switch around ‘infrastructure’ and ‘education’, and you get PIE. But, be careful, cos Joe could have it copyrighted.
I’m sorry but I see Centrebet’s suspension of betting, and the accompanying theory-mongering as base attention-seeking with the sole purpose of attracting more betting dollars. The idea is to get people talking about the theory, contemplating betting, and (like me) to revisit the Centrebet website to see if betting has resumed.
bb @ 724,
i did watch gladiator. after the initial battle scene, which sent a chill down my spine, i was wondering what on earth i was watching?
Once it had been decided by Rudd that they wouldn’t go to a DD on the issue after all, despite an earlier decision otherwise, all they could do was put it in a holding pattern.
dedalus @791, have you factored in that Katter and Oakeshotte both depend heavily on Labor and Greens preferences and in that regard Oakeshotte is most likely to be a one hit wonder without Labor support?
@774, yes
Can I vote for you?
779 ltep
I’ve thought that since the Speers interview
I think it’s another Katter trap. If his traps work as well as Wilkies, I’d be impressed.
Rocket @805, There’s no particular reason for Katter in going strongly for Labor. He knows he’s the odd one out. So its very possible he’ll announce he’ll abstain on no confidence motions and otherwise vote where he wants.
Rod
It wasn’t in a holding pattern. It was tossed. A holding pattern would have been to say they were going to make it an issue at the election and try to pass if with a mandate and a new parliament.
They didn’t do that. They euthanised it and brought in that ridiculous Citizen’s Assembly.
Thats the really scarey thing……it’s highly possible that Katter (ex-Bjelke Petersen acolyte) may determine the outcome of any Bill presented to parliaent.
Imagine – 74 to Labor (reduces to 73 with Speaker from Labor)
73 to Liberals.
Oakeshott votes with Gillard
Windsor votes with Abbott.
AND Katter thus determines the outcome of the legislation.
803 cud
I believe none of the indies are really influenced by what the next election holds.
I love the Liberals’ veiled threats to Wilkie about “not preferencing” him next time – so then they’ll have to decide whether to give the seat to the Greens or Labor (both of course part of the “most centre-left” government ever)
By the way, how can anyone be the “most centre-left” – “most left”, “most right” I can understand, but mathematically what on earth are they talking about??
jenauthor, I went to Egypt in January, a fascinating country despite its crumbling infrastructure and appalling food. I looked into the face of Rameses II – a very eerie experience. I hope I still have that much hair when I’m 3,200 years old.
thought that what the history of greece and rome demonstrated was the that rule by an oligarchy was the way to go.
hell, plato’s ideal leader was ‘philosopher’ king for goodness sakes!
For lovers of Egypt, Cairo Time is a charming, transporting movie.
If Wilkie is active and visible in his service of Denison in the next three years, he’ll have a reasonable chance of being reelected.
For lovers of Egypt, may I suggest track 4 of the Bangles’ album “Different Light.” Catches the mood of the place perfectly.
Cairo is a dreadful city, worse than Athens, worse even than Bangkok, though not quite as bad as Jakarta, if that comparison helps. Alexandria is much nicer, though it’s only a shadow of what it was before Nasser kicked out all the Greeks and Jews.
Cud chewer # 803 What on earth are you talking about? Oakeshott and Katter both got 47% of the primary – they are not dependent on Labor or the Greens
@817, only going on what someone said here. clearly they depend on *someones* preferences but I’ll have to take a closer look
#792
Depends on whether Mr CentreBet has a balanced book at this stage or not. He should have if he has been doing his job properly. On a balanced book he will make 10-20% of the total bets laid, irrespective of the outcome.
However, sometimes a bookie gets taken by surprise and has an “unbalanced” book, meaning he wins well if one runner wins and loses badly if another runner wins.
Bookies aren’t in the business of promoting one side or the other. They are only interested in CASH.
Prosperity
I’d say whatever decision KOW makes, they’re probably still good for reelection.
rhys muldoon was an average actor, what about as a tipster?
Egypt is a garbage dump with scattered historic stuff.
Oh rubbish. If that were true they’d have done it by now. Or not – they’re so inept.
Bloody Freo. I hope they lose next weekend. Saints and Pies for the GF.
Generally if a bookie is actively promoting one side, they’re trying to get mug punters to balance the book on that side.
@820.. too many syllables for the average bloke
cc 803 – nope -but Oakeshott’s a bit of an idealist who fancies himself a player – he’d go ALP for sure except he has to look out for his career. If green or alp prefs were a big help to him then, yes, that’d push him to support julia.
I was there in November. It is definitely a country of contrasts.
Sorry to go off topic ….
While I am an Agnostic, I suppose, I do believe in reincarnation — and my empathy with Ancient Egypt is so strong I reckon I might have lived there once. I have even written a book about it (fiction with factual backdrop) — so if it ever comes out, it’ll probably ‘out me’ here.
BTW … I have a profound belief (backed up by linguistic evidence/research) that Ramses I is Moses and Horemheb was Aaron. But that is a debate for another forum!
Oakeshott must be a serial one hit wonder . He won elections in 2003 and 2007 in NSW parliament as an independent. He won 2008 and 2010 in federal parliament as an independent.
@829, point taken. bite me
So three indies find it impossible to stick together. What happened to one for all and all for one?
the three amigos have signaled they’ll avoid a 75-all result.
That rules out: 2 go LNP, 1 ALP.
lefty @832, where did they do that?
Yes. I can’t see the story anywhere in a “reputable” news outlet, not even on the ABC, so it seems to be an insider thing.
Labor was a long way out on price just a week or so ago. The Centrebet chappie must stand to lose hundreds of thousands if they win. As favourite now Labor would be attracting even more money. Time to call the whole thing off, it seems. Cut his losses. Coudn’t happen to a nicer, cavity-crawling, cesspit dwelling, parasitic cockroach.
#829 Yep – in the 2003 & 7 elections , and fed by-election they weighed his votes rather than counted them. This time the 15% drop in his primaries was balanced by the presence of the Labor vote who did not run at the by-election. Fearless prediction: if we are forced to a House only election – Labor will not run in Lyne no matter which side Oakeshott falls on.
Katter does depend on ALP (or Green) prefs but only needs a few of them.
His winning the seat, is however, is also dependent on the people who
vote 1 Katter but then go on to preference ALP ahead of Nationals.
That is about 30% of his vote (based on 2007 TPP figures).
As I mentioned yesterday, if the ALP really wanted to get rid of Katter
then they can make sure the National wins instead of Katter by a
combination of running dead and preferencing Nats over Katter.
Jenauthor, you’re no doubt aware of the theory that the story of Jesus is a reworking of the Egyptian story of Osiris and Horus. You certainly see tomb images of them that look remarkably like the Christian “madonna and child.”
Yep.
That leaves:
3 LNP
3 ALP
2 ALP, 1 LNP
2 ALP, 1 Abstain
1 ALP, 2 Abstain
2 LNP, 1 Abstain
3 Abstain
Dolt! That was the Three Musketeers, not the Three Amigos.
I prefer the Three Stooges’ motto when they (once again) locked themselves into a room with the gorilla inside it…
Has Crook announced who he’d back in a Confidence Motion?
I predict the PORK will be distributed in the following manner by the Gillard government:-
a. Pork dished out to Dennison, will be the result of representations from the Tasmanian government.
b. Pork dished out to New England, Lyne and Kennedy will be the result of the strong representations from the local members.
LET the pork games begin.
Ah, ty, democracy lies, not in the mind of an AD C20-21 observer, but in the definition of demos; ie, it’s rule by those who qualify as citizens. So Edward’s two knights from each shire and 2 citizens from each important town was a step towards democracy in a society when demos meant white, male, Norman.
In both Rome, and England until very recently, demos involved military service & provision of specified clothing/ armour & weapons, first in local Lords’ & Knghts’ forces; later in England’s militia with its regular training- some Yeomen / Volunteer brigades still meet & train (eg in Shrewesbury). It’s those traditional provisions, and Britain’s refusal to allow North American colonists to to bear arms & train (as many of them had done before they emigrated) which explain why the Right to bear arms is Constitutionally guaranteed in USA.
In the early C18, demos meant male, 21 & over who met the specified land ownership and/or income levels & trained with the militia – then about 75% of the population (also the then literacy rate). In many towns enfranchisement was 100% (Burslem is recorded as such in guide books, sometimes with “Tis said”, before it became THE pottery town): teaching a town’s kids, usually in homes with room for a classroom, was one of a curate’s income streams. Decline in the enfranchised (& literacy) rate as Enclosure & the Industrial Revolution forced people off rural land & into city tenements, thereby wiping out family income streams (eg wool, spinning & weaving, pottery, butter & cheese, preserves & conserves, meat pastes & pickles etc) was one of the cruelest losses men felt.
With very few exceptions, Demos did not begin to include women until late C19; almost always in the New World before the Old. Youths, included in Rome, were not included in Oz until Whitlam’s PMship.
BTW, one could look at the current UK Conservative-LibDem government and conclude, quite justifiably, that it is “rule by patricians”. But, like Rome’s assemblies (comitia centuriata, comitia tributa), curial magistracies in the cursus honorum, and Tribunates (open to both patricians & plebs) they were democratically elected – by those who fitted the Roman definition of demos.
Application of one’s own generation’s standards & expectations to those of past generations which did not share them, is anachronism.
Windsor and Katter are old warriors in their twilights. They have huge majorities and won’t give a stuff about the effect of their vote on their reelection prospects. Katter would vote for Ivan Milat if it suited his agenda. Joke. I’m sure the guy has as much ethics as anyone here. Oakeshott’s a different fish. He’s got a young family to support and serious political ambitions to pursue. He’s made more speeches in Parliament in the last year than almost anyone. He’s on committees up to both his arms. The guy’s not going to jepordise his career prospects. No way. His is the real decision because he has the most to lose by making the wrong one. But I’m sure his instinct is to go to the left on this.
BB,
They’ll be “Three Coins in a Fountain” none of which can swim if they back the Libs.
Well, that simplifies things
Why is the centrebet guy playing political commentator?
I think people are confused about Centrebet.
It does seem that they have closed the Election market off. Thus they are
not going to get any more punters by making their announcement.
Some of the other bookies are still operating, eg Sportsbet, so they
obviously don’t think it is all over.
Also, note that Centrebet will make about 10% on the bets whoever wins.
Its profit is not dependent on the outcome so that does not explain
their action.
So I think that you have to take the announcement at face value.
That does not mean it is true, just that Centrebet seems to think
that trustworthy or knowledgeable sources are confidently making
predictions.
The story of Jesus is taken straight from the plot of the film The Egyptian, starring the incomparable Norman Purdom, brilliantly assisted by Victor Mature as Peter and the always sexy Jean Simmons playing Mary.
Bill 834 – With respect, mate, that’s rubbish. You don’t know anything about the bookmaking business. I was a bookie for twenty years. The election’s just another slice of Centrebet’s action. The guy you call a ‘cockroach’ is most likely a nice family man with three kids and a dog. Please don’t spoil my good opinion of your great earlier posts with this type of silly and disrespectful nonsense.
but jenauthor, that’s not foresight, that’s common sense. foresight would have been to think of a way to unify government of defeated countries in a way that wasn’t just lopping off the head of state and installing himself in their stead. the things he did, making himself part of the egyptian pantheon, forcing greeks to prostrate themselves as though they were persians. if you compare that to say the romans, whose conquests pretty much all had an idea of some sort of overarching government on whose behalf they acted, it’s obvious that in terms of personal aggrandisement and historicity, alexander was a success. but in terms of government he was a failure.
also attacking without fear is a lot easier if you have an army of professional soldiers and your opponents have seasonal levies surrounding a small core of professional noble soldiers.
Labor has gone out to 1.45 on sportingbet. Obviously the rumor has spread.
#834
Thats a statement made without any evidence and you clearly do not understand bookmaking.
Cockroaches have families too. There’s nothing special about having a family. Just look at Hitler and The Boys From Brazil.
And he had a dog… which he poisoned.
I rest my case.
Rocket @805, can you find the link for the Speers interview?
bill, you call that a case?
Labor was at over $3 just a week or so ago. If those chickens come home to roost with a Labor win the family and dog loving bookies will be taken to the cleaners.
Implying a bookie cannot ever make a bad bet is as idiotic as saying the price of property never goes down.
Young… you are a drongo.
Centrebet do have a financial stake in a future Govt. they want online poker and casino games to be legalised in Australia.
So they should not be taking bets on elections as they have a clear incentive for a favourable policy position.
BB,
High praise indeed of PY’s intellectual capacity. Are you sure he’s that smart?
The most offensive part of the Centrebet guys argument is to install the “Unpopular” Gillard minority government. I thought Julia was leading in the two polls out. I think this guy is making it up I seem to remember before the election he tried to get money for the Coalition by saying that the seat counts didn’t match the overall market and the money came for them, about $4.00 to $2.60 or something like that.
The first cogent comment in the last dozen or so (including my own).
What is it with the bookie defenders? They’re like the psephies… it’s all so clubby and cosy. Scientists, all of them. No, no, no… bookies and pollsters wouldn’t cheat. These people are gentlemen! They have families, and dogs (fer Chrissake!).
Attempting to influence political opinion? Get an edge? Nobble the race?
Perish the thought!
Sorry William. I’m just in a good mood after solving a technical problem I’ve been working on for five days, on and off. Suddenly, fools seem like, well, fools and I felt like telling them so.
Going to cook tea now.
BB
when the ALP was at $3, the Libs were at about odds of $1.35.
It just means that for that day, there were maybe $50,000 bet on
the ALP and $110,000 bet on the Libs. So the bookies
took a total of $160,000 income for that day.
So if the ALP win they pay out $150,000 (at the 3 odds) and
make a profit of $10,000 for the days work.
But if the Libs win they also pay out $150,000 (at the 1.4 odds) and
make about the same profit.
So they always make roughly the same profit no matter who wins.
They just set the odds for each day according to the weight of
bets for that day.
All this negative talk about katter going coalition. So Kevin Rudds deep friendship with him means nothing?
Truth is none of us know anything.
I am somewhat amused at how you regulars enjoy torturing yourselves.
The result will be known soon enough now. Why not just wait. There are many other topics to see us through. The wangers on the msm. The brilliance of William’s non stop info and indepth anylisis and of course the Dockers magnificent thrashing of Kennetts ummm what’s their name, that team in the brown and white, damn umm don’t tell me…I’ve lost it..oh well LOSERS will do
I feel your pain, BB. It must be awful not being able to call someone you know little about a “cavity-crawling, cesspit dwelling, parasitic cockroach” without people calling you out for being a vicious, petty, tiny-minded, immature grub.
Except they do not, they pop up in the media and are given credence as political commentators. It is wrong and would not be allowed on a greyhound track.
ruawake
I agree that Centrebet in particular does act in the political arena
by making announcements, and even occasionally setting odds that are not
justified by the market.
This time, however, it does seem that they have closed their
election market (for the moment) so they can’t be making
announcements in order to drum up business for themselves.
Can we all agree on hoping Collingwood loses?
“Truth is none of us know anything.”
^ That.
None of us have a clue which way any of them will fall.
Sportsbet are still betting ALP $1.33 Coalition $3.20.
Psephos 867
Amen to that
Which was true.
Dr Good, Centrebet have only suspended their markets. They’ll likely reopen them again at some point and see a rush of bets for the Coalition. The punters seen to react to the smallest bit of information.
Placing bets based on the whims of three chaps who are giving little away seems like an act of complete madness to me.
Yeah Pseph, I have gone through it all exhaustively, and I agree. Fascinating stuff, and a great argument topic with died in the wool catholics like my brother-in-law.
Itep
I know that the seat market didn’t match the overall winning market, but I only think that he drove this particular point to get money for the coalition.
Dyed
As an example of how irrational the markets are, they moved rapidly on the AEC’s administrative decision to remove certain seats from the 2PP count, and moved again when the ALP signed that pointless agreement with the Greens, all of which said very little about the overall outcome.
No.
anony — the reward from marrying off his soldiers was a long term strategy, requiring foresight in a time when warriors had little.
We’ll never know about governance, because he died too young.
But I will simply agree to disagree.
I just hope that if the rumour is true, that Julia ends up with at least two indies.
On ABC news Windsor just said that the three had an agreement to meet Monday and discuss their decision before making it public. I don’t think Katter wil renege at this late stage.
OPT and others interested in Greens Party proposed legislation seeking changes to above the line voting in the Senate.
Advisory Report on the Commonwealth Electoral (Above-the-Line Voting) Amendment Bill 2008 by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, 2009.
http://www.aph.gov.au/House/committee/em/elect07/report3/Final.pdf
Thanks Grey … would have noticed at my second edit
#856
Bushfire Bill…. Why try and defend your ridiculous assertions by namecalling? Doesn’t advance the validity of your silly statements…….
{Labor has gone out to 1.45 on sportingbet. Obviously the rumor has spread]
Been off line for a bit. Can some kind soul please tell me what this rumour is about.
Is there a source for Katter announcing tomorrow other than the AAP’s weekend work experience guy?
post 733 Diogenes seems to copy a quote from
a Mr Evans from Centrebet saying Sunday for
Katter
Sportsbet
ALP $1.33
Libs $3.20
#861 Bushfire Bill
Hopefully you won’t be using meat you scavenged out of a park bin.
Mystery villain poisoning dogs
Yes, that was the report I was referring to. Perhaps I should rephrase to “what the work experience guy at AAP heard from somebody who is not exactly Laurie Oakes”.
This from the OO Bob’s priorities
Mr Windsor said last night the three rural independents were prepared to vote as a bloc in the interests of “stability”, even if one of them had to vote against his preferred political party.
But he warned it was still mathematically possible if they split that the outcome would be 75-75 and Australia would have to go back to the polls.
The independents will have talks tomorrow ahead of a meeting in Canberra on Monday to determine whether they would reveal their position.
Which is the one that would vote against their preferred party?
ozpol @ 842,
indeed.
during the res publica, citizenship was initially open to the tribes of rome, and later to rome’s italian allies, and then her provincial allies. even with the qualification of ‘rule by the citizens’, the patricians didn’t consider themselves as mere ‘citizens’. this is evident from the very fact that not only did they have the privilege of voting, but they also had the right to attain high office, which was beyond the plebians. because they could trace their ancestral linage back to the early tribes of rome, they believed that they had the birthright to rule.
furthermore, the term ‘demos kratos’ had no real meaning to the roman oligarchy (in the same way that democracy seems foreign to iraqis), unless a patrician wanted to bypass the senate and appeal directly to the plebians. the romans themselves viewed the greek ‘demos kratos’ as something novel, in the pejorative sense.
as an external viewer, the res publica may have elements of what we in the present might refer to as ‘democracy’, but according to their own standards, the res publica was nothing of the sort. consider the example of SPQR, why draw the distinction between the senate and the roman people then?
It is perfectly evident that Centrebet’s Neil Evans has rung up this hapless reporter at AAP with a view to spin this completely concocted line about Katter announcing Sunday as a way to spur interest in betting on the election. Centrebet may have suspended betting for now, but I have absolutely no doubt it will be back up and running within hours or certainly tomorrow morning.
Blackdog, impossible to read either way on that, it could be Katter (for Labor) or Oakeshott (for Coalition).
The most likely is that Windsor was just talking hypotheticals rather than revealing the mindset of any of the 3.
Unlikely, but it adds to the excitement of the thriller/drama being played out.
Hmmm, ABC News is showing a celebration of the landing in Australia of a boatload of refugees during WW2. These people are now in their 80′s and 90′s and it is the 70th anniversary. Apparently we took them in when no-one else wanted them. So what has happened to our sense of decency in that 70 years?
I hope its Katter (for Labor), because I would be very disappointed after watching Mr Oakeshott over the last year in question time, go against his passions and beliefs. Whereas I can’t work out what Katter’s are.
So with Centrebet suspended the effect of the announcement by Mr Evans
would be for punters to go and place bets on the ALP with
Sportsbet and Sportingbet.
As I said before, in a normal day, that does not have any effect on the
profit of those two agencies, as they can reduce the odds for the
ALP and balance them by taking a few bets on the LNP at higher odds.
However, in the last few days of a betting market, with a credible
indicator of a winner there may not be many bets put on the LNP
in those last few days.
Thus Sportingbet and Sports bet will be stuck with perhaps a large
number of last minute bets on the ALP.
This will hit the profit of those two agencies if the ALP actually
emerge as the winners on Monday (as they have increased
payouts without balancing profit by taking in bets on the
losing LNP side).
Thus I think Mr Centrebet is fairly sure that the ALP will win
and he is using his ability to get into the media to
damage his competitors.
Just saw Katter quoted on the Nine News. What he said was, “I hope it will be on the weekend, on Monday at the latest, but it’s not my choice alone.” Perhaps Evans heard the first bit and didn’t hang around waiting for the end of the sentence.
Now that I’ve seen the AAP report there’s little in it.. just regurgitation of received wisdom.
I don’t think Neil Evans is a bookmaker per se, I think he is their media relations guy as he use to work for fox sports. I expect he wrote that himself and sent it off.
I would say they are still exposed heavily on Labor.
Ah.. then the indies are disagreeing about when to go public. fine
Killerbees, if they end up reopening the market any time soon, that will be my very firm suspicion as well.
aap article on the age website this afternoon.
ABC news in Melbourne said that a decision was expected by early next week. That was it, no mention of Katter anouncing tomorrow on his own.
Oh the unpopular Gillard government. The Coalition ain’t so popular.
Fingers crossed for a parting stab at Tony Abbott from KOW at the decision press conference:
“Though our natural instincts are to provide unconditional support a Coalition led government, we have extreme reservations about the maturity and financial competency of the current Liberal leadership team; and until such time that the Coalition embrace much needed generational change, our support will currently lie with the ALP for this three year term…..”
Dee
That was what I said on the last page. At least they could get the facts right. So much for the other part
where have all the fibs gone?
tears on the pillow time?
59 000 houses without electricity in SA due to storms- how many SA PB’s are online? Hope everyone is okay?
Gus, yes the Liberal tragics are deathly quiet tonight.
Cud
I just woke up- still a bit sore and sorry
Gweneth, it’s certainly pretty wild here at the moment. I don’t recall this much rain in a short period for a very very long time. l live near the river Torrens which is just a trickle for most of the year, but its flooded and water levels above all of the bridges I could see, and is absolutely gushing.
Lots of damage to trees and some fences, but I haven’t seen too much else in the parts of the suburbs I’ve been through today.
Fortunately, my house hasn’t been part of the blackout (yet).
Thanks Gwyneth, okay so far.
Mmmm…The work experience guy may have just blown his chances at a future job.
Not so sure. Two hands and the ability to click on a spell checker is pretty much all you need at AAP
chinda is from SA and mentioned she has a creek at bottom of property, but said there is just a remote chance of flooding
Looks like somebody has taken the bait. Sportsbet ALP $1.36 from$1.33 Coal $3.00 from $3.20
Gweneth
I’m in the Adelaide Hills and went to the prelim final of the local footy league this afternoon. It blew a gale and with continuous rain. Watching the SA CFS incident website I can see that every few minutes a unit is despatched for a tree down of some minor flood work.
Psephos 867,
…No..
Do you know him, William? Do you know the “work experience guy” at APP?
Tsk… tsk…
They may have families and dogs.
Triffid I had very low voltage last night – not quite no power over here in Boganville. The football kept dropping in & out & it was the brightest light in the place, but it came back on early this morning for me. It is a constant problem since privatisation (bet that’s shocking news)
I too have a fast running storm water passage at bottom of garden – luckily not close to my unit.
Dr Bogan, what suburb are you in?
Triffid Seacliff Pk, you?
Why? Too much information, not enough fluff?
Power was off 4 hours here. (copper triangle) P*ssing down rain and it would blow the milk out of your tea.
Thankfully have just installed another rainwater tank which this downpour has filled. We have 5 tanks now and are just about weaned off the tap.
Athelstone, near the gorge (boy is it windy here!)
We usually get the storms before you guys but I think they came from further south. We got a few heavy showers a few days ago but nothing like what you are getting. Is this normal for this time of year?
PS here’s hoping you all stay warm and dry!
I went out in it earlier and consequently got impaled by a fence post.
OK, I made the latter part up but it was horrible out there, and there was a tree (decent sized gum) that had snapped at the trunk
(and it wasn’t lightning, there were no singe marks)
Triffid
Have a look at this and you’ll see why it’s so windy.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR64I.loop.shtml#skip
John Winston Howard and Tony Abbott.
William wnet -
Plus Katter loves to stir the pot. He gives a signal this way then the other…
Centrebet are just getting some free publicity. No way that K wont be meeting again with WO after the weekend to compare notes.
Bk – seriously? Wow!
Reporting from the stupid, ill-informed, ignorant, read-necked state of Qld, which I am still deeply distessed over, it a fine and very warm night 26 degrees. I do hope you all stay safe.
Triff,
Right my sister at Modbury said it was wild out that side of town. It’s been wild down here in the south too, I’m pretty close to the airport did anyone here of flight delays in Adelaide? I know that the footy was late starting because of a flight delay, so maybe
Any important new election/political news in the afternoon I have been offline for a while
Puff: “we will decide who comes to this country and the circumstances in which they come”.
The politics of shame.
Count 1 Sth Aussie on line for me
Not far from you Triiffid, up nearish Golden Grove. Son had first catamaran sailing race of the season set for today, Scratch that!
Haven’t heard of anything, though I’ve been away from most media from for the day looking after my daughter.
Or how about Howard’s “I don’t condone it but you can’t blame them” (to paraphrase) attitude towards Cronulla when PM.
Okay this is a question from a non-techy will probably be quite dumb to those in the know – how is optic fibre networks impacted in these situations? I mean if you have underground power as well?
Sorry psephos I want an alp govt and a collingwood premiership. At the game now. Go Pies
Puff, they could have managed white water rafting in the Torrens from what I saw this afternoon.
Trying!, my poor old dog Holly hates thunder and she’s had it in spades. She’s been shaking and quivering for too long today. It’s a lot better now.
Go Julia!
statement from Oakshott on parliamentary process
Well one good thing from all this, Adelaide is definitely prepared for summer this year.
So I make that 4 of us Sth Aussies on line any more of us from Boganville?
haydencooper
1. Also a new committee to examine all complex bills before they go to the House. Says both major parties have agreed to most of this. 4 minutes ago via web
2. Oakeshott says other reforms will include acknowledgement of country at start of each sitting day. 5 minutes ago via web
3. Update from Oakeshott on parli reform: Wants QT answers limited to 3-4 minutes. Speaker barred from attending party meetings. 7 minutes ago via web
The first requirement would be illegal and the second requirement is not much in evidence
sprocket where you getting this stuff on O?
What are you on about man? Bangers is a great city, you need to spend more time there just stay away from Patpong, I agree about Jakarta however.
twitter – more reliable than MSM
Is that a new name for the Democrats
here it is – draft parliamentary reforms from indies
http://filesocial.com/9dh5bxm
I could make some calls….
VP, no that would be “back passage”. Did you get my email by the way?
wow!!
2.1 Independence
The role of the Speaker be independent of Government.
If the Speaker is drawn from either a Government or Opposition Member then the Deputy Speaker will be drawn from the other side and both the Speaker and Deputy Speaker will: abstain from attending their respective party rooms; and when in the Chair, be paired for all divisions.
If the Speaker is non-aligned, then the same pairing arrangements will apply.
The Speaker and Deputy Speaker can participate in Private Members’ Business but cannot vote.
Is that right,
Oakeshott .. Wants … Speaker barred from attending party …
(edited in the OO style)
My last comment refers to Meg Lees dirty deal with Rattus
Dr Bogan
yes thanks – I bloged a response earlie rbut you must hav emissed it.
Am consodering an article at the moment will email you when done
The other day I watched in amazement as the Police pulled up a motor vehicle, proceeded to strip search the driver (it attracted quite a crowd of onlookers as the guy was hot) and then virtually pulled his car apart. In the end, the driver was released and he suprisingly said “Thanks guys, have a nice day”.
As searches may only be carried out where the Police have “reasonable grounds for suspicion” – I have lost any faith in suspicion as providing much assistance.
Andrew @ 944 – Go Pies!!!!
BTW WTF is with our goal kicking? Luckily Footscray is just as bad tonight
This makes no sense and may be unconstiutional
tHIS WOULD IN EFFECT give them a deliberative vote by removing a deliberative vote from the Opposition) as well as a casting vote.
Not well though through
Not well thought through I meant
SA in the thick of it, “Wildest storms in 15 years to hit Victoria”, “NSW told to prepare for extreme weather” … perhaps this Gaia sending a message to the indies? How come Qld missed out?
No one ever cares about the ACT
Jon, there are of course good things to see and do in Bkk (and I do not hang around Patpong, ladyboys not being to my taste). But in general it is hot, dirty and overcrowded. Give me Chiang Mai, Songkhla or Luang Prabang any day.
Sorry VP. I actually like the ACT a lot. Stayed in a wonderful old hotel with lots of political history a few years ago but I can’t remember the name. Near an incredibly good Turkish restaurant.
Sunshine in Lalor.
The forecast here in Qbn is for freezing rain and howling winds, both of which are now arriving.
most of it is putting the executive on a tight leash controlled by the indies
- first take is that pairing of the Speaker when they are in the chair is very significant for the numbers (there are many ramifications here……)
- so a 76/74 or even 75/75 result has two votes taken off, one from each side – Speaker and pair)
- why would an opposition sign up to this?
VP
Just clicked on your name to your page – love it.
And I am waiting with bated for the next “Great and Glorious Victory”, hopefully by Monday-Tuesday.
There is more to this story. From the ABC: They were Jewish German men who fled Germany to UK to escape persecution by Hitler. As enemy aliens they were interred in camps, and then about a thousand of them were put on a ship and sent to Australia where we too stuck them in camps as enemy aliens. After the war some went back to Europe but others stayed here.
Okay, different question, what is this thing we have about sticking people in camps?
Arriving? The weather in Canberra today was totally sh!te.
They NEED each other, they need a spare vote in case one is not present at division, or wants a DAY OFF!.
Any rain where you are?
What happens if the speaker and pair want to vote in the same direction?
You may mean the Hotel Kurrajong, where Chifley died
In a “normal” parliament, a Minister answering a question will get as many extensions as he/she requests……
Gweneth 970
Was it the Brassey? We stayed there a few years ago (after an absence from Canberra of, oh, just about 13 years exactly!!) – every room and corridor had old newspaper front pages on the walls and they were fascinating. I remember one in one of our rooms of Menzies being shafted in 1941 in particular.
A great set of reforms.
Especially liking the Parliamentary Budget office and reform to the QT relevance standing order.
Hi Dee
No, it is fine at warm at the moment. Have been looking at the radar for you guys interstate and can’t believe the forecasts. Oh and I also forgot backward as well.
Gweneth #970 – The Hotel Kurrajong fits that description
I was thinking of Labor’s term 83-96. Our absence from Canberra was about 12 – could not bear to go there while JH was in.
Thank you to all the regular contributors to this site. It has kept me sane over the past couple of months. Re the list for parliamentary reform, the one that made my eyebrows rise, and my heart sing, is the one wanting the Welcome to Country at beginning of each day’s sitting. How will the libs cope with this? Whilst some would say it is symbolic only I think it would gradually change the national psyche.
The restaurant is probably the Ottoman, seen of many a RWLH dinner. (And maybe LWLH too, though they prefer tofu and rainwater.)
Haven’t been to Bangkok but hated Cairo. I remember thinking when I got off the plane that they were having a storm …. but it was pollution.
VP
Just had a look at your site. Enjoyed it immensely but at the risk of usurping another’s role on here what’s “occassional”?
Yikes. I started to say “which has seen”, then changed my mind.)
Ok VP remember what number or time (roughly the blog) was?
Sprocket thanks for your info on o, & I am now fully Twit(ted) up now! get than one in before anyone alse does I say
no they don’t get to vote at all under the proposed arrangement, but the Speaker would still gets a casting vote in the event of a tie as this is in the constituition, and if they are truly independent, they should follow convention re Denison’s rule and support the status quo
as for is it constitutional? I’d say it is (check legal opinion as well). The constitution is pretty lite on the role of Speaker eg
However, with Standing Orders,it is the parliament which decides – and it has almost infinite powers if there is a majority to support them. So mandating that Speakers don’t attend party meetings, mandatory pairs, or that they must wear tribal headress is within their remit
Gweneth, agree with other posters likely the Kurrajong, adjacent to the Ottoman
Jen, quite by accident I found a hotel called the Windsor, which I swear has not changed a bit since 1910 – potted palms, elderly waiters in tails, a beautiful cage lift, a 7pm dinner gong, spittoons in the rooms. It was wonderful.
Peter Young @ 809
Katter’s got a picture of Bjelke-Petersen on his wall, but the other picture is of “Red” Ted Theodore.
huh
the great canberra hostels have all gone
acton-offices
macquarie-demolished
kurrajong,canberra-privatised
one a police college
one a reffos camp
Yes, Chiang Mai was great back in 1967. Hiked from there into Burma as it was then called and stayed with a Meo Hill tribe. Those were the days, my friends…
The Jews were treated appallingly on the ships which were no better than the internment camps.
Psephos, I notice Mike Kelly bettered 50 TPP in Jerrabomberra – nice!
“You may mean the Hotel Kurrajong, where Chifley died” – I believe I do – he used to stay there when he was in Canberra. Lovely place.
another now a park
another a hitech hq
and then there were the lodgings/bivouacs
It’s bloody awful here. We haven’t had a blackout and I’m watching Gillard’s team being slaughtered by a black and white team.
They should have played her a full forward. They need a bit of mongrel.
I was in Canberra for a couple of conferences in mid-July just gone. The Turkish restaurant is famed nation-wide. This undie thing on Parliament makes interesting reading. I assume they won’t get all of it from either side, but a lot of it is fairly innocuous for the 2 majors, on the other hand …
blackdog
I’m in Qld also and its raining in the religious capital of this state.
Rocket ..not sure you wanted to conjure up that image?
“I remember one in one of our rooms of Menzies being shafted in 1941 in particular.”
Kelly was determined to carry Jerra, and spent all day there handing out cards. People were queuing up to shake his hand. Abbott threatening cuts to the public service was a good way to get high-income public servants to vote Labor.
OK, internment camps…i’ll get my head around that that one then…. well I don’t know.
Dee
Just had a look on the radar, and looks like it is coming to Brisbane. Where are you?
That SA radar is probably the second most dramatic posted on PB. The Saturday night of the Victorian bushfires still takes the cake.
He actually lived there, since his wife refused to leave Bathurst and he didn’t living by himself at The Lodge. Also it made it easier to conduct his affair with his secretary, who was with him when he had his fatal heart attack in 1951. (He actually died in Canberra Hospital.)
Didn’t know it was going to rain here as I have refused to watch the TV or listen to the radio for the last couple of weeks.
Maybe the Undies won’t be able to fly back in to Canberra due to the weather on Monday?
Toowoomba. Chainsaw country.
Well, some Jews were treated appallingly on some ships. They were on the Dunera, but that wasn’t typical. To be fair to the crew of the Dunera, they weren’t told they were shipping Jewish refugees, they were told they were shipping interned enemy aliens, which was technically true, and at the time of the Blitz British seamen weren’t very inclined to be nice to Germans.
Just been catching up with the tread – boy are are starved of actual new infomation.
Really ripe enviroment for starting a rumor.
Speaking of which I hear Abbott in going to conceed on insiders tomorrow.
Gweneth:
From the Hotel Kurrajong website:
Yes, and Ottoman Cuisine is (a) a brilliant restaurant under its chef Serif Kaya; and (b) as Adam says a favourite of RWLH’s. I remember a meal at the previous Ottoman premises in Manuka (in about 1993-4) being almost spoilt by the fact that our table was next to a table of 14 or so NSW ALP hangers-on fawning over Richo and John Ducker.
Paul Hodgson
actually the kurrajong was used as a police college at one stage
Diophantine equations were a “bridge too far” – but messing around with the numbers on a spreadsheet -
assume – greens + others = 20% (20.4% last newspoll, 18.7% election)
assume – greens 12% (13.9% last newspoll, 11.7% election)
spread of “support” for others = 10% coalition, 10% labor, 80% uncommitted
(need a large uncommitted from this group to get the 14% total)
spread of “support” for greens = 5% coalition, 70% labor, 25% uncommitted
(yes, lots of assumptions!)
Plug them in, and you need about Labor 40, Coalition 40 to get the results, which as William pointed out before I did all this, translates into a roughly 54-46 ALP TPP.
1006 gweneth
More “research” for Fred Nile maybe!
No. not Joh, but Arthur Caldwell.
I hope that Bob Katter insists as a condition of his support that Collingwood not be allowed to win the flag, by lesgislation if needs be.
The Windsor Hotel in Cairo featured in “Around the world in 80 days” with Michael Palin. In fact, the relevant episode is available currently for a few days at ABC i-view. Just watched it by odd coincidence.
Not the famous photo taken of Calwell in a car with the windows shot and cracked?
I stayed at the Kurragong for work and they were renovating the restaurant so the people I was working with said – find a local restaurant and we will cover the cost. Walked up the hill and went what must have been the Ottoman – realised at once that I had strayed into a bit of high brow but didn’t know were else to go and was famished. Ate alone – food was exquisite – and watched all the blue bloods having jolly family dinners. And someone else picked up the tab. I remember it fondly.
1021
During “Red” Ted Theodore’s term as Permier of Queensland the upper house of Parliament was abolished.
He could not be Katter’s hero for that!
Zardos
VP you a writer, academic or journo?
Centrebet statement.
Betting agency Centrebet has suspended betting on the federal election, with north Queensland independent MP Bob Katter’s decision imminent.
Centrebet spokesman Neil Evans said Labor was at $1.51 and the coalition $2.50 when betting was suspended on Saturday afternoon.
‘It’s expected Bob Katter will side with the coalition, with New England and Lyne MPs Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott potentially tipping the unpopular Gillard (Labor) government back into minority government,’ Mr Evans said.
The odds aren’t too different to those Centrebet was offering on election eve, August 20, which were $1.52 for Labor and $2.44 for the coalition.
The other independents, Mr Windsor and Mr Oakeshott, are expected to make their announcements on Monday or Tuesday.
Needless to say – poker machine reform is not on Centrebet’s agenda.
They don’t follow AFL in Katter Country. A more likely demand would be that Rugby League become the only legal football code in Australia.
Diog, how was your banquet? Mine was farqing good. The Peking Duck was marvelous, nice juicy crunchy skin.
rain’s just hit us here in south brisbane. glad i flashed and caulked the chook yard roof this afternoon while it was dry.
Is that so? Well it deserves its fame. It’s a gem.
I most cities in Asia and Africa there’s a hotel where Noel Coward and Somerset Maugham stayed. In Alexandria it’s the Windsor Palace on the Corniche, where I stayed. Next door is the Cecil where Churchill stayed. They’re both pretty run down and shabby now, but you can see what great hotels they once were.
More likely a tariff barrier reound the state of Northern Australia to prevent the importation of AFL ;-0
Psephos
Don’t worry there’s lots of wobble time yet.
I’ve at least expected membership of the Sporting Shooters to be mandatory.
Yeah VP lots of wobble time. go the Crows
Dr Bogan
Try to write, was an academic mathematician, edited the student newspaper – but now I am what my name says.
It was definitely the Kurragong then – as I remember thinking how I liked staying where so many Labor greats had stayed.
Finns
The S & P flounder was very good. They have all these live fish in tanks there now; barramundi, Murray cod, lobster, mud crab and abalone (at $68 each!).
We couldn’t order any of them with the kids there, esp as my daughter is a vegetarian.
Fewer greats now I’m afraid.
VP
My latin’s not so flash but from my Spanish I would deduce the Public Eye? or something like that.
If Centrebet wanted more money to come for the Coalition it has on Sportsbet ALP 1.47 from 1.33 Coal 2.60 from 3.20. Are they backing Coal themselves or just punters following the alleged rumour.
Anony
By the look of the radar you ain’t seen nuthin’ yet.
Dr B
Servant of the People – I can say no more
Public Slave?
Finn
Now that is cruel. Where’s mine?
it certainly felt like that under Rudd
It says Bob Katter’s decision is “imminent”. That doesn’t really add much to his previous statement that he’d prefer to announce on the weekend but he has to work with the other indies.
your secrets safe Ken
Sorry Julia.
Hopefully Monday will bring better news…
(go pies)
Shssssh
I’d like to legislate against any and all competitive sports, starting with those played on a field – bite me
Mussrum @1050 that tops the lot – and then you spoilt it at the end
Vernula Publicus@1044
Do you know that your posts here are at the top of the “Vernula Publicus” google searches?
Happy to arm wrestle on that one
My take on the betting is that the libs know they have lost and plan to make as much money as they can on the way out…
Actually “vernula publicus” probably means “enslaved public”.
well then lets hope my boss doesnlt have much Latin.
The English treated them like dogs.
My grandmother & other women in the village would make up food parcels & send the boys down to smuggle it into the camps over & under the fence. This whilst being shot at & at times beaten by english soldiers. My father said they were in an appalling state & the soldiers treated them harshly. Some were not allowed off the ships & the boys would swim around the docked ships & the refugees would haul the food parcels up the side.
Anti-semitic sentiment was not exclusively a German prejudice.
The worlds treatment of refugees has improved greatly.
VP, you are hereby sentenced to spend the rest of your natural life, viewing Fox Sports – may god have mercy on your soul..
How does that compare to the Moody’s flounder?
VP I’m a little technologically challenged on how stuff works on this blog I’m afraid, we drown in technology in my field of work ssssh say no more Ken
Scarps
depends who was weighting the rating
We are all robots on this blog except for you and we aren’t sure about you.
This might well be the quietest few hours since the election was called, or even since Gillard elbowed out Rudd on June 24.
The only morsel of the remotest consequence, and not much at that, is this drivel from Neil Evans of Centrebet.
WronG
it is closer to “slave/servant to the public”
it’s time – i can’t see it coming yet. we’re on a hill looking south east. approx 7km from the cbd. we can usually see nasty weather blowing in over the main range. this looks like it might miss us north and south.
bugger, i meant south west
or more correctly
Scarpat
“We are all robots here”
Darn caught out!
While at the confessional on the topic of handles, I can disclose that mine is a nod to a character in the 1973 western film “Pat Garrett and Billy the Kid”
Gus
“Publicus vernula” means servant of the people. “Vernula publicus” is ungrammatical Latin but would mean something else.
Puffy, now this is even more cruel. the second dish off the Peking Duck was the meat cooked and served as San Choy Bao, like this:
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2170/2075192181_9066b2b253_o.jpg
Has anyone mentioned the irony of Tony Abbott taking out $1 Billion of the health system, but when he needs the vote of an Independent MP to become Prime Minister he’ll jump at the chance to put $1 Billion back into the health system for one seperate project (which apparently only requires a third of that amount)?
I just thought of it then and I was wondering if anyone else had similar thoughts …
I think that is a damned good point spur212. I haven’t seen that noted previously. I try to imagine the theoretical “reasonable person”, that is someone who is genuinely apolitical, and I believe with certainty that such a person would regard Tony Abbott’s behaviour in terms of that $1 billion offer to Wilkie as grotesquely grasping.
Probably something out of the blue but when was Christopher Pearson let out of his cell?
Click for a laugh
I don’t think to make a conclusion, that on average, he sits in the dead centre, is a valid one.
More valid, IMHO, would be he suffers from a severe form of lunacy.
1074: He didn’t cut a billion from health. The money was reallocated within the health budget.
Hi all, I am catching up on some threads.
1) News Ltd and Kev , one factor in the News Lrd campaign- not commented here is that Conroy intends to change the anti syphoning laws, whnch would threaten Fox sports and hence Foxtel.
2) I am sure katter won’t declare tomorrow, they had said early next week, because the AEC is declaring the results.
Why after waiting until now, go tomorrow?
3) Fibre is much better than copper (and don’t even mention wireless) in storms. It is immune to electrical interference , also being nonelectrical the lines are more impervious to water damage, though the equipment at either end has the same issues as regular telco equipment.
Dio assuming Latin grammar works like Spanish which is probable, VP is correct.
VP found that link you suggested, very revealing -not
Can you see the radar? There’s a north-south rectangular mass out to the west which is travelling in a SE direction. It might just miss you. Look to the NW. The Downs have copped it and anything from Ipswich south to the border is going to get plenty of rain.
Dio
P. Vernula was alluding to the Gracchi?
Reallocated where?
Are you talking about the billion he wants to take out of the PBS scheme?
Dio, VP has explained that PV was already taken as a nom de blog hence VP – think of it in terms of egami rorrim.
Those umbrella ads?
Might be some new beat ups in the Sunday papers. Got to wait until Midnight to get the online versions though.
James J
I don’t know if he did take $1 Billion out of the Health system as Health Minister. What I do know is that Lindsay Tanner (who I trust) was quoting out of the 2004 to 2007 budget papers the amount of health cuts that Mr Abbott made.
Whether or not he did take it out of the budget, the fact that he made the offer to Wilkie makes me sure that this line will be in the ALP ammunition when the time comes to finish Mr Abbott off.
Not sure how pertinent this is but from what I saw of news reports this morning — the wireless in NZ fell apart in the quake. They were appealing to people not to use phones and saying the wireless towers had only an hour of power left.
Gus, i also had P. Vermicelli alluding very well
http://farm1.static.flickr.com/142/380472300_20539590f5.jpg
Did he offer a billion for the Hobart hospital?
The Gracchi period was a very interesting time as I recall from studies.
Finns
wait till you get spermecetti
can sure tie things up
Put Pearson back in his box, I’m a trained historian & I resent idiots like him telling me what all historians will think!
Scarps
Yes. I just think the meaning is probably quite different now.
Jen
the peeps V the creeps
Dee, you’ve just made a further point that adds to the irony of the situation.
steve@1083
Into the 2010/2011 budget to build a teaching hospital in Tasmania!
John Reidy Thanks for the info on optic fibre – yet another reason for the indies to go with Julia
On reading the article, it sounds like he had help from TP to write the paragraphs on Julia.
gweneth
NB
optic fibre can be respliced, IE joined back together almost immediately
A copper cable can take weeks
Bottom paddock flooded. Have moved most of my livestock up into the house block.
Can hear all sorts of excited banging around outside, OH says he heard a tree go a few minutes ago.
Will have to wait for morning to see if we’re flooded in – I expect we are – fortunately stocked up on food!
The wireless towers would have lower capacity backup power than the main telephone exchanges.
ABC radio had an item recently on a new system which enabled mobile phones to create ad hoc networks in the absence of other infrastructure and saying that it would have been effective in the Haiti earthquake. Seems like a developed country like NZ would also benefit from such an invention.
whos’s TP?
Dr Bogan@1094
And I might be a trained Historian in 20 years time. I resent him too!
I’ve npticed we have a lot of us history nuts on here … must be the predeliction of choice for political junkies
Thomas
pain(e)
a regular and lately annoying posters here
The HMT Dunera . The reason that Lord Stern has been in Australia this week, in fact, rather than anything to do with climate change. His father was one of those on board.
One of the great indictments of WW2 Britain, and an early experiment in “offshore processing”, though it was Britain that was playing the role of Australia back then, and Australia playing the role of Nauru.
see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMT_Dunera
Pity neither Abbott nor Gillard seem to have noticed the ironies.
Lord Stern himself said, `Whenever I hear people making derogatory comments about asylum seekers I think “That’s my Dad.”‘
The parallels between Britain’s treatment of the refugees involved and our treatment of Afghani refugees from the Taliban or Iraqis from Hussein are remarkable.
This anniversary should make both major parties, and a lot of today’s “Aussies” ashamed of themselves. I doubt that most will even know that it has occurred, or what it was all about, though, I’m afraid.
I thought Tasmanian Hospitals were valued at $1 by Liberals. Is Mersey a different style of hospital?
We asked earlier how the SA PBs were going in the storm – how about a call in from the Vics, ACTerritorians and the NSWelsh and the bananas? All well?
Tom Hawkins,
Mr Wilkie claimed Mr Abbott offered to put $1 Billion into the Royal Hobart Hospital in order to get his vote which Wilkie rejected as it was irresponsible considering it needed less than a third of that amount.
My point is that it’s not a good look considering the ALP have accused him of ripping $1 Billion out of the Health budget between 2004 and 2007 yet he’s willing to put that amount in for political purposes (to gain power) and it gives them an obvious attack on his lack of integrity.
Dr Bogan, TP is Thomas Paine, a blogger on this site. TP’s obsession is Julia Gillard.
mersey was a Bi Lo kind of hospita;
RHH is Myer
At a time like this, when Australia’s fate might lie in the hands of a curious chap like Bob Katter, I reckon the likes of Singapore with its benign, effective dictatorship must think quietly to itself: “Thank goodness. There, but for the grace of God, goes this country.”
Gweneth, as I said before, I can’t wait for the fur to fly after this and we get to see just how Abbott tried to defend his BS broadband scheme and just how desperate he was in trying to answer the Indies – I can hardly imagine how ugly and stupid his extra additions were.
In the Coalitions costings they had planned to cut a billion out of the pharmaceutical benefits. We didn’t find this out until the Thurs,Frid before the election & it received hardly any coverage. This would affect low income earners, pensioners & the disabled. But according to Robb it wasn’t going to make a difference at all. This was another proposal that Treasury found they had got wrong.
So history is the future if my understanding is correct.
Yes, a politically expedient one.
Btw, one thing pointed out to me recently is that the NBN was just starting get built in Armidale (in the heart of Windsors patch I believe) and of course NBNco itself going into caretaker mode must have gotten noticed there.
two bits of good news tonight
1. the Pies clearly have the best team left standing
2. the indie draft reforms will make the parliament a better place
http://filesocial.com/9dh5bxm
Scarpat, I originally thought TP was merely upset over Rudd’s demotion. But eventually he showed his real colours as being anti-Labor in general.
Gwenth
recovering from invasive surgery and some heavy shite meds!
the kids worry me sometimes!
I have these twinges in me back!
Why doesnt the garbo come later in the day?
is milk really milk?
Are we just living a matrix existence?
Why does the music sound loud and i meanloud these days?
besides that its a fime spring nite here in gods chosen patch
Thanks scarpat – so many acronyms
So not only did he take $1 Billion out of the Health budget between 2004 and 2007, but he took $1.15 Billion out of the pharmaceutical benefits scheme in his costings for this election, yet he’s willing to put $1 Billion into a hospital that requires less than a third of that amount in order to buy the vote of an Independent which would let him govern the country.
The hole is getting deeper and deeper by the minute.
Cud, Julia was TP’s means of coming out of the political closet.
I work in IT. Have done for 20 years. Until recently I worked in taren point in the south of sydney. When I left recently we were still unable to geta decent wireless internet option guaranteed because the coverage ended wait for it – two blocks west from our location.
ADSL2 was what we had but because we were 4KM’s from the miranda exchange we were on the outer limits of it’s capability. Downloads were OK but upload was crap.
This is in an industrial area of a suburb in our biggest city. How is the coalition’s lame patched together wireless effort going to work in the bush when in 12 years they couldn’t get it right in our biggest city?
Yes, you need to take a ferry to get there:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08083BNaYcA
Gus, who is more annoying, Diog or the Pain?
I have been arguing with TP for years now and I can assure you he is definitely not anti-Labor. You can’t dismiss him as easily as that. It is just not true.
It wasn’t just that W made the claim. The offer WAS made and idiot Robb has since said the billion would be forthcoming should they form government. How irresponsible is that on a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being ‘off the planet irresponsibility’? I’d rate it as a 10. What say you?
Finns
I luvs Dio
At least he knows he is WronG
TP just aint getting it
Finn, that is truly evil.
Good to hear it Gusface!
And of course we have Andrew Robb with the whipped cream and cherry on top!
Yes on a scale of 1 to 10, I’d give it 10 (maybe 10.5 if we can extend the scale slightly).
1120 Sprockett, it all seems ok to me except the no notes bit. I think there has to be allowance for the need for carefully worded accuracy in the answer to some questions in a Federal Parliament.
Cutting the Lord’s prayer and having some sort of welcome to country would be a plus.
Looking back, looking forward
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D59cX23PDu4
“I might be a trained historian in 20 years …”
Are you calling the good Dr old? Never do that to a Dr or a woman for that matter.
Ah Puffy, you want more pain, here is the Dragon Tail we had tonight:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_zIjpxeHKnKM/SWsXoR8QHjI/AAAAAAAAGaU/DTTESI-pc_E/s400/DSC_9153+0811.jpg
Dio, I agree that TP doesn’t come across as being anti Labor per se (my reply to cud chewer was tongue in cheek) however his obsession with Gillard and how she came to power was becoming maladive.
Gweneth
A mate of mine,and occassionally my bro as well,used to wax lyrical about all their ailments and woes whenever you asked if “all was well”
couldnt resist
One reason the Indies are taking their time is that they want both majors to sign on for all the process things. That will give some protection against changes down the track. A bit like pre accreditation before being allowed to put in a full bid for power.
The longer they drag it out the more chance they have to make sure everything is stitched up.
Pardon my ignorance of health costs. What kind of hospital does a billion dollars buy? Hobart has 200,000 people. Does it really need a billion dollar hospital?
PY, nice choice.
Scarpat
I think TP is really disgusted with Gillard’s race to the bottom on asylum seekers. He really had a problem with the idea of the Timor solution.
I thought Rudd’s effort on freezing Afghani and SL visa processing was equally disgraceful and just as stupid.
Fortunately the maladives are about to disappear under the Indian Ocean, so maybe TP will go down with them.
Herr Doktor, it is the HoBart “Club Med Resort” Hospital.
Pseph
swmbo’s auntie lives near launceston
The auntie reckons a bill would be well spent
apparently Tas suffesr badly from cancer type treatments and machinery
Yes, Hobart has 200,000 people but, if stories are correct, that makes 400,000 heads.
Or the poster that really really can’t deal with alternate points of veiw?
Best wishes old son
I forgot to mention this yesterday but one of the reasons Laura Tingle had so much indignation over the Liberals costings was not just because of the size of the blowout ($10.6 Billion) but because of the systemic nature of the blowouts over a significant amount of policies.
In past elections, Opposition costings blowouts have been limited to one or maybe two items. In this election the sheer number that the Liberal Party made and the fact they were willing to bluff their way into office is quite appalling.
Finn.
Why, oh why can I not stop looking?
Three silly answers. Does anyone actually know? Dr Diogenes?
We’re building a new hospital in SA which is meant to cost $1.7B but will probably be more like $2.5M. It would service about 500,000 population.
If the Royal Hobart is the only public hospital in Hobart, it’s probably about right.
Further
the fat %^& that was the fib health minister promised a complete upgrade beck in the late 90′s
it never eventuated
Or the poster that really really can’t deal with alternate spellings of view?
TP reminds me of Brian Lara. Zoe Goss had him caught behind and stumped off the same delivery. He was out. Lara skulked and sooked all the way off the ground. It was getting out to a girl that flummoxed him. TP hasn’t come to terms with that yet.
Puffy, it is because they are the foods of love
and this is what poor Diog had tonight:
http://www.goeagle.co.nz/images/recipes/fishrecipies.jpg
HB
and the walrus said to the carpenter
Oh carpenter…………….
It must be the machines that go “ping” that cost so much.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arCITMfxvEc
Did Toilet Paper make another rant that could easy be summed up by saying “Gillard sucks? I hope she dies!”
Gus, If i were the carpenter ……… and my hand made in wood
I’m not the sharpest pencil in the box, Gusface.
What did the walrus say to the carpenter?
pseph
steady there
jill lost a DIL to breast cancer
if the right machinery etc existed then (1997) she would have had a fairer chance
most stuff is still done on the mainland
Finns
donovan
“the walrus and the carpenter”
Psephos 1153
I think his nom-de-plume says it all. He is not a “Conservative”.
Diogenes 1154
Your “inner Barnaby” is showing – will they be able to treat that in the new hospital?
ah gus, so were trying to catch the wind, good luck
Gus, how long does it take to get from Launceston to Hobart?
Alias went -
Utter nonsense. Sillypore IS a dictatorship. Benign only if you toe the line.
Just try and raise a voice of any dissent. They just do not have the balls to have a full fair and free election. They believe they are *born to rule* just like the libs only much much worse.
Unless you believe the ends justify the means and are prepared to have that imposed on you by someone else. Go there and try it.
But the MSM are making lame excuses for it. Ah, you know! The opposition is at a disadvantage & all that goop.
The time has come,” the Walrus said,
“To talk of many things:
Of shoes–and ships–and sealing-wax–
Of cabbages–and kings–
And why the sea is boiling hot–
And whether pigs have wings.”
Gus
Actually Tassie does send quite a few people to Melbourne. Perhaps $1B would mean they didn’t need to transfer as many patients.
[It must be the machines that go “ping” that cost so much.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arCITMfxvEc
Psephos, be honest. You asked the question so you could segue to Monty Python. Glad you did.
Interestingly, Fairfax’s Northern Daily Leader (the regional paper of New England), which had originally urged the return of the Gillard government, is now giving mild support to a new election.
If undecided, go to the polls
They all find their way to the MCG don’t they?
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2a/Briny_Beach.jpg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H.M.S._Donovan_(album)
The scary thing about the Monty python piece is that it how accurate it is. More like a doco, than a send up….
Federal elections cost $170 million. There’s nothing statesmanlike about wasting money on a new election when no serious attempt has yet been made to make this Parliament work effectively.
Wasn’t aware of that album Gusface, thank you.
Looks well worth checking out.
Dio
tassie is still badly served in respect of health
the abbott 1 bill is too little too late
the fibs were the ones who starved the system to begin with
I reckon the NBN and E health will help to at least guarantee a level of service
Ta, Spur212 – you are right.
Why haven’t any of the other media reptile become upset about all these Billions and all the F’nn lies and deceipt ??
Gus
I never hear anything about Tassie Health. That’s normally a good thing. They don’t rate too badly on the league tables but those are pretty dodgy.
*departs*
And what do we do if we have another hung parliament (reasonable chance, though I would favor Labor as TA would have trouble campaigning about any costings!)
The 150 MPs would still have to sort it out – or maybe have another? Best of three?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFDgSKbapzY
Gus, do you know this album from around the same time?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Just_Another_Diamond_Day
Very lovely.
Does he still post here ?
I thought he disappeared up his posterior in depression and disappointment.
BTW TP – What a huge week the stockmarket has had :0
Serious action to curb excess gambling definately ain’t social engineering. It is ethical action for the greater good.
pps
I took a courier less time to deliver my results than via the wb system shitey thing
we are being denied a basic right by being denied the NBN
Future generations will look back and say
WTF
One thing I don’t understand re: the costings is how little outrage there is over it. It seems to be treated more like an “oops” moment than anything else. Don’t people realise Abbott and co were hoping to hide it until they got their foot in the door. They tried to deceive this country just to get their grubby hands on power and they almost succeeded. Where’s the sense of betrayal? Or have we just become so used to it, it no longer fazes us?
It’s like catching out a con artist just before he runs off with your life savings and just laughing it off as “egg on their face” and taking solace that their credibility will be hit because of it…
YES
will go searching
As far as hospital costs go isn’t Sydney’s Royal North Shore currently undergoing a $980m “upgrade”? I suspect $1 billion is probably pretty much par for the course when it involves building a new major one from scratch.
Ah, you know how it is? That’s just our honest Tones. Anyone can make a mistake when you are in opposition working from a point of disadvantage.
The reptiles have just rolled over (again) and made the decision that this detail has no need to be reported. On the other hand gillard farted tonight at dinner and that will be front page in the morning, afternoon & night.
You should be asking me that, Honest Bastard. I discovered Vashti Bunyan through the lovely “I’d Like To Walk Around In Your Mind”, which was on a compliation of 60s obscurities I bought in about 1990. With no liner notes and the internet several years away, I could find out nothing else about her. I eventually learned about “Just Another Diamond Day” about five years ago.
Rod
he issue is that tas needs a real overhaul of its system
the fibs disguised structural faults and Rabbotts 1 bill was his mea culpa
bastard
William
sorry
ps I could suggest
‘ever so lonely’
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HOFmDK_1cVg
lets face it TSOP — EVERY mistake made by Rabbs and Co have been treated like ‘oops’ moments. And nobody complained once about all the press conference ‘walk outs’. He could have had a wind-up saying ‘Stop the Boats etc’ for all the real interaction he gave during the campaign.
Meanwhile, every decent policy announcement from Julia wasn’t even reported!
1186 wrong link
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_SddMc3Vik&p=D85156D1D9D508AF&playnext=1&index=49
It’s just irritating. I mean, I can forgive overlooking a faux pas or misspeaking. Even making an honest mistake. However, this was an attempt to openly deceive the country. Had the swing been a little bigger in NSW, Abbott would’ve gotten away with it too. In fact, it’s rather annoying that there is a reasonable chance he might still yet get away with it.
Tone has the born to rule mentality and lack of regard to accountability matched only by Bourbon and Stuart kings.
goodnight all
Jen – how DO we change that ?
Because LoseCorp just will not accept a Gillard win. Its on when KOW go Labor, which they will.
And enjoying it ever since I imagine William. I’m playing it now, although I think it’s best as morning music.
Night all.
Night everyone — see* you all Monday for the big decision — I wonder what sort of catchline the news outlets will come up with to build the tension?
Any bets on the banner that’ll run across out TV screens?
@1128,
Oh, the pain!.. the pain!
Or treated with over the top cynicism. If there was the slightest flaw in the proposal, that would be the headline. Even if there wasn’t it would be treated as “too good to be true” and thus a desperate promise!
That made me think of Jurassic Park when the T Rex roars and the banner falls down in front of it.
GILLARD APPOINTED AS PM BY INDEPENDENTS
NO ELECTION AS GILLARD IS APPOINTED BY GOVERNOR-GENERAL
GILLARD ‘NOT LEGITIMATE AS PM’
‘Vendetta journalism’ describes it to a Tee.
Screw them. Who watches TV these days anyway.
More, Better and much accurate and comprehensive media online anyway.
When will they ever learn.
Someone reminded us today that Rob O. has a young family, and must surely be thinking about his career and how best to preserve it (i.e. by not upsetting his conservative constituents). But he strikes me as someone who is perhaps even more concerned to be able to continue to look his wife and children in the eye, now and down the track, by standing up at this crucial juncture for what he believes in.
As for him being freaked by a possible risk to his breadwinning: Surely he’s aware that a man of his competence could earn far more outside politics. So where’s the real loss if in three years’ time he gets nudged out by voters who don’t recognise a class act when they see one?
some links for information.
also the hospital would/will serve a large proportion of the state outside greater Hobart and lessen the need for people to go to Melbourne for serious stuff.
http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2010/09/04/170601_tasmania-news.html
http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2010/09/04/170661_tasmania-news.html
unfortunately I can’t find a link to Sue Neales’ opinion piece in today’s (SAturday’s) Mercury which goes into more detail about Abbott’s offer.
That offer was/is indeed to build a completely new hospital and $1 billion would seem to be the cost.
The thing is while charming (according to Wilkie) Tony probably sincerely believed the offer as it was being made (this aspect of his personality has been discussed here already) I don’t believe it was ever meant to happen.
The key is that Robb considered that “factoring it into our long-term plans” was a commitment to build.
It would have been non-core and engineered so as never to be delivered this side of the next election upon which it would be buried.
Wilkie would have sussed this but couldn’t say so in so many words and the black hole just confirmed the rubberyness of the offer.
He will however be wearing the opprobrium of having turned down a new hospital and settled for a bandaid for years to come.
As we near the finishing post, wonder if any of the contestants will be called into the stewards room for excessive use of the riding crop over the finishing stages.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1eqDCABVehc
More likely..
NSW Labor Right firmly in control of Australia as Gillard assassinates elected Prime Minister, bribes independents to appoint her Prime Minister to avoid facing the people.
Nah, too wordy…
Another re-wording of your previos 2,855,713 posts, TP.
Might rain tomorrow
I wouldn’t start celebrating until the deed is done. Tonight’s “class act” could be Monday’s “backstabbing bastard”.
I can’t see how the Coaliton can be forgiven for Costingsgate, but then I’ve never been able to see how they get away with what they get away with. I’ve never been able to see how otherwise reasonably competent, intelligent people -voters all – can say things like, “Liberal is good for business”, or (the worst I’ve ever heard), “Oh, I voted the normal way” (meaning Coalition), from a Franklins checkout lady a couple of elections back. To her it was just the normal way to vote.
While many here may eschew the ABC, never watch the commercial news and don’t read the Daily Telegraph, millions do, and they swallow the wall-to-wall Coalition Is King stuff by the bucketload.
We have just seen an election campaign where the most obvious, glaring errors in costings, policy and presentation were completely ignored – if they came from the Coalition – with the excuse given that the journos were “bored”, or (disgracefully) “cynical”. They continue to be ignored and glossed over.
Let’s face it, the Coalition have the media in their hands because they know how to run a political roadshow. Lots of glitz, gloss and lies, delivered dead pan, so seriously that you find yourself thinking they’re so sure of themselves, maybe it’s me that’s wrong?
Whether we like it or not the Libs have assumed the mantle of being Born To Rule. They are the default government, despite broken promises, broken costings, arrogance, hypocracy and outright lying to us. They can get away with saying, “XXX will always be lower” to sober, nodding heads where, if Labor tried the same thing, they’d be laughed out of the press room.
Labor gets a look in when the Libs get too on the nose. Otherwise the Coalition is just “the normal way”.
In any case, getting rid of Rudd was Kim Carrs idea. And he is from the Victorian Left, not the NSW right.
We had a 6 hour blackout (Adelaide)
Gusface- I saw Sheila Chandra a few yrs ago in concert in Sydney, small venue, me,my husband, and many Women Wearing Comfortable Shoes.It was great.
More rank and file symbolic protests in NSW.
Fed up with Sussex St
In practical terms – a total waste of money and time. But then……
Of course the Coalition is the “normal way”; many think labeling the Coalition as “do nothings” is an insult, but for many people that’s actually what they want… a government that does nothing until “doing nothing” was such messed up consequences that they need Labor to fix up the mess… then they revert to the Government of doing nothing.
i remember a headline from the last election, ‘howard’s budget king-hit’. howard had delivered a budget an the media were selling it, but, and this is my fondest memory, no one was buying. it didn’t matter how much water they carried for him. on election day i handed out htvs and watched voter after voter march into the polling station with absolute bloody murder in their eyes and sweep howard away. the media never got over it i think. that’s why we had the tarago tax, ute gate, pink batts, school waste and even ‘the gfc wasn’t so bad’. their frenzied, hysterical attacks over the past 3 years in an unprecedented spewing of bile and mendacious bias has all been to make themselves relevant again. they will redouble their efforts if julia wins.
Yes Proudlyformeryank @ #1211 – whoever wrote that does not know Oakeshott
Here’s a couple of thoughts to kick around.
There’s an international element I think plays into people’s perceptions of our leaders.
Australians don’t like to be embarrassingly reminded that their nation is not in the first tier.
Howard managed to carry the people with him a long way. Past AWB even. But then he blew it.
There was a slight stumble when the Spanish President got invited to Dubya’s Crawford ranch, not only before Howard but with no hint of an invitation on the horizon. The feeling I got at the time was that he had to nudge an invite to keep up the “Man of Steel” image.
The biggie though and the point from which most folks stopped listening to him was when Howard criticised Obama’s candidacy for the Democratic primaries and he was rebuked by US politicians, including a Republican, thus embarrassing himself and by extension all of us. He really did think he was such close buds with Dubya that he could be viewed as a figure of authority when he said these things.
In Rudd’s case such a huge deal was made out of his Mandarin and special relationship with China and such a huge deal made out of Copenhagen and the towering figure he would represent, that when China sent him out of the room to go back to the kid’s table while the grown-ups talked, his image tanked.
I have no idea what any polls at these times might have indicated but others may.
The Katter story looks bogus.
Besides anyone writing under the pseudonym “Ads by google” can’t be trusted
1225
Inviting the Spanish President would have been rather a faux pas as there has not been one of those since 1939.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_heads_of_state_of_Spain
Spain has a President? Does their King know about this?
Ha, you beat me to the pedantry, Tom
Tom/TSOP
Thanks. I thought it probably wasn’t President but couldn’t be bothered checking at that point.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/windsor-favours-labor-on-broadband-20100904-14v5l.html?autostart=1
nothing terribly new there, but I’m glad that the sunday newspaper is quoting Windsor thus:
1205
“MURDOCH FLOATS IN FAMILY POOL”
A similar argument could be advanced on the other side for a new greenfields hospital in Hobart rather than an upgrade and if the Dodgy Brothers Opposition weren’t such utter shameless shonks things could have been very different.
That is an encouraging quote from Windsor.
It would look very odd indeed now if Windsor didn’t back Labor.
Famous last words? I can still see the three of them coming out saying they are from concervative electorates and they must respect that…
And I am aware that I can’t spell conservative.
A feeble attempt to railroad K, perhaps.
The unforgettable Tony Windsor Sings – A Powerful Rhythm for Labor and the Broadband Blues for Mr Pork.
ZOMG noes! The Americans won’t like it!
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/special-reports/last-bid-by-tony-abbott/story-fn5ko0pw-1225914284606
*looks under bed for a red*
What they will say is they have conscientiously made the best decision for their constituents (in terms of services and programs); the best decision for the country (in terms of who can be trusted to provide stable Government); and what they will feel is the warm inner glow of victory – of knowing that all their years of resisting the National Party really, finally, undeniably means something tangible.
Punna, is that a Menzies type red or a Cabernet Merlot for example?
Pinko why are u still buying the conservative electorates spin? Newspoll on these electorates has gone from 34/54 to 47/39 to labor and even the former poll showed that majority of those that actually voted for the indie preferred labor. And of course if they were so conservative they could have just voted the national candidate in.
Katter saying they will announce together is strongly suggestive of all three to labor .
Has the centrebet guy broken the law by influencing the market with inaccurate statements ?
The 47/39 is a national figure, not of the three electorates.
Without thinking too much, potentially it may breach s 52 of the Trade Practices Act as deceptive or misleading conduct, or a conduct likely to mislead or deceive. This would be more likely if they reopened the market because you could say they were trying to induce investment (bets being placed) by means of deceptive statements.
Windsor’s comments are encouraging but don’t put it completely past the Abbott to backflip on the NBN. Can’t necessarily see that happening.
Again, I wonder why nobody in Labor is able to write effective slogans like this.
Abbott can’t flip on the NBN as he has allready derided it as a white elephant.
I really can’t see them backing the LNP at this stage as they surely can see labor doesn’t deserve to get punted.
Thats what I have been telling everyone regarding the NBN and the main reason I got involved in this election in the first place.
There definately going to back Labor and this is the dealmaker for them. You can’t have Abbott and the NBN which is how they will sell it to their respective electorates.
cheers
Ltep, the newspoll headline refers to “voters in their electorates”
The current President of Spain is Jose’ Luis Rodriguez Zapatero.
He’s a lovely guy, most decidedly “one of us”, and in fact I wouldn’t put it past him to be a lurker on this blog.
Technically he’s “Presidente del Gobierno de Espana” — “President of the Government of Spain” — but his folks (a majority of whom like him a lot) just call him the President of Spain, or “nuestro presidente”.
There’s no question that Rudd was outstanding in 2007. He was clear and his ideas shone through. It was very disappointing to see that he seemed to lose that clarity, especially in the second year and get bogged down in administrivia, allowing the Minchinites endless free kicks on Climate Change and to repeat unchallenged their claims of the BER and Insulation programs were debacles when they were actually hugely successful (despite some glitches which were to be expected in programs of that scale).
There’s no way Howard would have let that happen. That’s where Rudd failed as a politician, in taking his eye off attending to the short-attention-span part of the electorate who tend to be where a large section of swinging voters seem to be. This is where Abbott’s sloganeering, left unchallenged, was allowed to escalate to the point where, because it was unchallenged, gained the appearance of validity. And as we know, “perception matters”
Bushfire sadly I largely agree with you on the voters, but I do believe education is slowly but surely changing this situation of non-critical voters – guess that’s why Fibs hid a $2.5 billion cut to education funding on the Weds before the election which predictably got minimal coverage but caused an uproar by Uni Vice Chancellors
Love your humour Puna!
Pritam
Except he did – don’t forget how soundly trashed he was in 1998.
The GST saved him, in more ways than one – firstly, it changed the focus of the whole election campaign from the performance of his government to a single issue. Secondly, it taught him that, if he could find a distraction, the media would drop whatever the issue of the moment was and chase the new bunny.
It got to be ridiculously predictable – there’d be an allegation of misconduct against a minister, Howard would say something like “Perhaps it would be a good idea to revisit the idea of a republic” and the media would drop the former in favour of the latter.
It became so entrenched as a mode of operation that Howard thought the same thing would happen with Workchoices, which is why the media waited breathlessly all through 2007 for him to ‘pull a rabbit out of the hat’ (a phrase they themselves used repeatedly, which should have been an indication to them that they were being manipulated). And he tried. It’s just that none of his distractions were big enough then.
Don’t confuse Howard post 1998 with Howard pre 1998. Like all first term governments, he crashed and burned.
Oh, and btw – am now cut off from civilisation. Flood waters are metres from my house and I’ve had to rescue stock who got themselves stranded. Expectations are it will rise another half metre, and perhaps fulfill my son’s ambition – he wants to live in a moated house.
Good Gough! Whitlam has a facebook page!
http://www.facebook.com/home.php#!/profile.php?id=527328525&ref=pymk
Windsor’s statement reported in the Age:
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/windsor-backs-labor-on-broadband-20100904-14vd4.html
As others have said, this is very encouraging. It is one of the most definitive statements I can recall making where he cites a clear policy preference for one side (Labor) over the other (coalition). Most of his other statements so far have criticised either side, or both, but not clearly said one was better.
Morning all,
The ALP need to reinstate the ’80s and ’90s under Hawke and Keating where the ALP were ‘the normal way of doing things’ and the coalition were a rabble.
The Libs have done their part, all that is needed is for the ALP to step up to the plate.
I have given up on the msm .
Rudd took his eye off the politics ball during the GFC when the realized, it was too late
W and O are definitely in the bag, K – well, he is from the depth North, they are kinda insecure people, he will go with the flow. It will 77-72-1 (The Crooked one).
Diog, pls have the popcorns ready, then i forgive you.
Meet the Press says we’ll know the outcome by tonight.
If Poll Bludger was a film in production the execs would warn the producers that highs and lows are necessary, but too much will overstress the target audience. As a target audience I’m confessing to all my bludger colleagues that I’m utterly knackered. I hope the unholy trinity of Tony, Joe and Andy are as stuffed as I am.
Now I’m off to watch the local lake overflow the spillway for the first time in my memory.
James who said that on M. the P.?
Given the $1bn hospital promise, would Abbott & co now have to promise a $86bn NBN.
The ALP build a narrative linking the dodgy costings with the financial practices that caused the GFC, this is a nice simple story.
Hopefully followed by a national Newspoll towards midnight. If, as I expect, it shows a swing to Labor then the bile that the Murdoch papers spew will be both ugly and delightful (if that isn’t a contradiction).
Read that as “should build”
Good luck Zoomster.
I like that idea very much. It should be stated and repeated by Swan and the PM every time they talk about our strong economy. They should point out how the economy would be trashed and burned if Abbott had his way.
Tom I wholeheartedly agree
Some detail from Oakeshott’s list of demands for ‘House Rules’:
I wonder how disappointed (and envious) some people will be if it turns out Mr CentreBet has a perfectly balanced book and has turned off his board because:-
a. He is unlikely to improve his book – more likely it will go lopsided.
b. It is too close to the winning post, and the possibility of information leaking from the indies to some big punters – is a risk not worth taking.
What has this outcome got to do with Rudd, the backroom children replaced him remember.
John Reidy @ 1258
Yeah … there were very encouraging signs last week of the Fibs beginning to go to pieces, after the discovery the costings black hole & the knockback of the $1 billion offer by Wilkie.
The orchestrated campaign of fake calls to the Indies’ offices now just reflects utter desperation by Tones’ crew.
At the moment, it may be better for the ALP to hold its fire & appear as much as possible like a self-confident incumbent government. If Julia & the other ministers project confidence & stability then they become the natural default choice for the Independents, whose first priority is also a stable government.
Ok I have Meet the Press on in Adelaide now all SA pbs turn it on now
There is no evidence of that.
You will need to prove:-
a. There was a campaign that was orchestrated.
b. That it was orchestrated by the Tories.
c. The tactic was carried out by “fake” calls.
I doubt relying on MSM reports that quote sources constitutes proof. We all know how unreliable the MSM are.
The right royal Pyne in the Butt is still pushing we are the only legitimate govt. line
pyne’s upper lip was beading with sweat. He was flustered and angry
Katter says will be decision by tonight
Of course it will. Don’t you know that droughts always break under a Labor Government?
Dr Bogan I hope the journo’s rebutted him … Oh what am I saying, they would have let him waffle his BS without rebuttal.
Meet the Press tearing away at the Pyne in the Butt
For you Canberrites, here is your chance to see Poss, Mumbles, and Turnbull, Peter Martin and many others debate the internet and how it’s transforming politics.
I’m so jealous.
http://media140.com/ozpolitics/
Dogma
Meet the Press is not letting Pyne get away with it & is attacking costings in detail
Now Meet the Press is making a bit of fun of Julia – but it’s harmless funny stuff
It’a an all OO panel on the Agenda program this morning and hosted by PvO.
Conroy is standing up very well, especially to Jennifer Hewitt who is a real sourpuss. He said that simply she is not right and then went on and told her why.
Dogma
Wonder if I can fit a 1 day visit into my schedule for that conference
Dr Bogan,
PAul B on Ch10 is usually fair, I’m just used to others letting the Libs Lie and not rebutt.
Having previously spent a great number of years living in the deep dark north, insecure is not a word I would associate with the place. And Katter is anything but, belligerent perhaps but insecure no. There is a different pace in the tropics, less intensity and a more matter of fact approach, whether it is farming food or throwing out the government.
It is conservative for sure but that is the isolation, education levels and often socio economics IMHO. The fear of invasion insecurity I think you are referring to is largely a myth.
fredn
Rudd is the Minister for Bob Katter in the ALP. Apparently Rudd-jargon and Katter-speak translates perfectly!
#1273
Sources close to Katter as quoted by the MSM are pretty unreliable sources. Remember the assault story. Even Katter said that after he was assaulted, he gave 10 back and he hadn’t heard or seen of the “person” since. Turns out the assault and the “10 back” weren’t punches (a term associated with the word assault) but verbal barbs.
Katter IMHO has a kangaroo loose in the top paddock.
Oakeshott cleverly getting written bipartisan support for parliamentary reforms prior to announcing who he supports.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/09/05/3002831.htm
Dr B,
It would be so interesting, especially since this blog, twitter and on the ground grass roots info being a good case for being informative beyond what the MSM gives us.
Anything that competes with the MSM on being informative is a very good thing. Might make the meeja pick up their act.
US evidence that the cash for clunkers policy was a dud aimed at stimulating car sales, just liek it has been everywhere else it was tried.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/cashforclunkers-policy-may-not-get-out-of-first-gear-20100904-14vdk.html
Hopefully the Indies will force Labor to drop this lemon.
Meet the press panel on costings errors now, is The Rabbots fatal flaw economic? Pyne bluster along lines we’ve already heard over the weak about difference of opinion & better surplus, ABC 4 Corners journo: surely the issue is credibility? Pyne: more spin trying to cover for the Rabbit can’t know all the details & we have economists in our party, pushed 2PP & primary vote again. 2UE on Indies support for many ALP policies, Pyne: pushes conservative electorates again, journo attacks re NBN support of indies, Pyne calls NBN white elephant, same approach re TPVs, Pyne attacks ALP on Lab & US alliance & attacks Gillard, now we’re getting the scare campaign on Greens & esp. US aust alliance, ABC journo, will Fibs try to bring down a ALP govt? Pyne evades question, pushes above lines on electorates of Indies, Journo will ALP govt last more than a year, Pyne pushes massive instabilty line now attack on removing Rudd attacks ALP lack of prity & honesty, Journo try again on legitimacy of ALP govt, same line by Pyne;
Now Wilkie is on Meet the Press
Albo on Channel Nine tells Oakes that the Opposition has put forward a proposal for a speaker from the other side to whoever has numbers for government.
Pls keep the reports coming Dr Bogan. Im confined to quarters by the kids for fathers day and being forced to eat some particularly salty eggs so your reports are most welcome!
Thanks for that, Dr Bogan. I cannot bear to watch the painful little twerp.
All campaign stuff. Too late for that. They’re not dealing with bogans who only read the Tele or the Herald Sun and swallow everything they’re told about Libs being “good for business”, natural rulers etc.
Unless they’re trying to set up some kind of “We woz robbed” thing, I can’t see the point.
On “Droughts always end sooner under the ALP“… that’s actually true. Spooky, but true.
Under a Gillard government there will be no droughts to break!*
*crosses fingers.
Wilkie mixed reactions in electorate as would expect on supporting ALP & not taking Fibs $1b, but many understand why did that. Pokies: Industry rep attacks pokie reform (surprise, surprise) Journo should’nt business be consulted, W: expects this sort of lobbying his concern problem gamblers points to quality of productivity Committee report, ABC journo on size of lobbying to expect under minority govt, do we need more contol lobbyist & more transperency, W: yes & that’s what we want, says he & KOW are beholden to public & can do good job on above issues. Now talk on no-confidence motions, W: both sides have good policies & most uncontroversial, Asylum seekers now and his concerns about both parties’ policies pushes his humanitarian line, Journo Any idea on decision of other Indies? W: No
Happy to keep you posted over now off to walk to shop & stratch my back before must grade some essays so can plug back into web for any developments – back in a little while
They would say that because they know they are less likely to have stable numbers
Conroy really took to Stuchbury with a baseball bat. He wouldn’t let him get a word in while he accused him of not writing a single word about the benefits of the structural separation of Telstra and the productivity benefits of the NBN.
It would seem – and I sincerely hope so – that Labor has had enough of these OO clowns and won’t take it any more.
Joe Hockey says the Labor party has sold it’s soul, Joe, you are soul.
You’re right about that, chinda. The LNP strategy will be to disrupt, assault, defy, raise tumult. If the Speaker is one of their members, it will be just that much easier to create chaos.
How could the indies declare for Abbott without Crook on board? He can’t get to 76 otherwise
Stephen Conroy deserves a big hug today for his gig on Sky. He told Michael Stutchbury, not once but 4 times, that he hadn’t written 1 article on the positives of the things he’d achieved in communications. Stutchbury countered with a stupid smile but Conroy finished on the same theme. You bewdy – they might have learned to no longer take the rubbish dished out by the OO.
After a break PVO gave Stutchbury the floor to respond to Conroy’s attack – tried hard to justify his stance but mentioned the damage it will do to pay TV cables if NBN goes ahead without proper ‘cost analysis’! Just doing his Master’s bidding I guess but it’s great that poor Rupe is worried.
Fran still trying to prop up the Tories, bit late methinks.
Conroy has left the OO trio on Agenda looking like a bunch of sooks who have just had their toys shatched away.
Go you good thing, Julia!!
Joe Hockey would know a few things about selling out …. the ETS, Malcolm Turnbull, $11 billion in fraudulent promises, the Hobart $ 1 bill pork sandwich…..
Oh Dear, now Fran Kelly is arguing we don’t know what happens behind closed doors and the Tories might have improved their Broadband offer.
shatched = snatched
BK I’m glad you saw Conroy – we’re off out in a moment but I couldn’t resist shouting for joy when Conroy didn’t back off with Stutchbury.
BH
It was music, pure music!!
Heard Pyne in car on way to work. Is this true that Abbott and Robb claimed they got economic modelling from some ANU organisation, and that thiose people deny it. Pyne’s patheteic answer was “If Tony says so, it must be true” or wtte.
I just hope Tony Windsor heard that.
The tone generally of TA’s cohorts really does seem defeatist, and planting the “illegitimate govenrment” seed so they can try and harvest it over the next term.
Whatever for? These shows are supposed to be viewers hearing from the politicians, not the bloody hacks!
They think it’s all about them.
@Steve … I’d love to know where they’ll find the money for that. Saddens me that the ALP has not made the case for any GDP improvements on the back of the NBN as a means of justifying the expense … I’m no expert but you’d think there would be some data out there on the experience of other countries in this regard.
Rocket just go to Peter Martin’s blog to see some of the insane claims of who was supposed to have ticked off the Rabbott’s costings.
If the indies support Labor I’m going to absolutely pig out on watching the unhinging of Abbott and the flailings of his cohort of impostors.
and beautiful, BK. Let’s hope we hear it every time the facts are misrepresented and let’s also hope that the spin disappears.
If the last week or so has shown anything it is that straight talking like Wilkie’s is a much preferred option.
Pyne, Hockey & Co should take a few lessons – the election is over and the spin is boring.
Peter Martin’s latest effort is a cracker, too.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/
Tricky. When’s the next sitting of parliament due?
Rocket Rocket 1314
Read Peter Martin. The name of the organisation is NATSEM.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2010/09/carefully-modelled-by-natsem.html
BK
Yes – in the words of Maurice Sendak “Let the wild rumpus start” !!
Even if Labor get 76, I will actually be disappointed if Katter goes with the Coalition – I think and hope he will go it alone saying he will not join either side. Much has been made of his “Red Ted” poster but I think it does reflect the nature of his electorate, and his family’s history.
If he does declare this today, then the Coalition are gone.
It’s mad, surely, that a travelling Foreign Minister, who is doing the nation’s business abroad, cannot cast a proxy vote in the Parliament.
BH
I agree – I think the public appreciate calling a spade a spade like Wilkie (and even Katter!)
Roxon is doing well.
I recall that during the last sitting in the HOR Bob Katter asked her a question about Flying Foxes and the Hendra virus.
He asked in his colorful manner and I noticed a few smirks and “someone’s let the crazy out” looks from the opposition benches. In her answer Roxon was forthright, serious and looked Katter in the eye the whole time. I think she got a tick from him that day.
Happy Father’s Day to all the PB fathers. We’re off to see our little darlings who’ll probably ask how much skiing we’ve been doing lately. We might have a bit of fun and tell them we’ve got nothing left and they now have to support us!!
A date to be set by the new government but before 26 November.
alias it is my understanding, an automatic ‘pair’ is granted in situations like this. However given the closeness of whatever party gets Govt, protocol may go out the window. Someone else may be more clued up on this than me.
Bushfire careful insulting us Bogans
Brilliant interview by Nicola Roxon on Insiders.
If the indies support Labor I’m going to absolutely pig out on watching the unhinging of Abbott and the flailings of his cohort of impostors. if the unhinging occurs ,and I think it will, I will record it and play back on repeat for a week!
The poison dwarf attacling Treasury. Fran Kelly defending them.
Darn
The poisoned dwarf is but a mere husk of a journalist. I don’t know why the ABC bothers with the discredited hack.
“a certain keeness to see abbott elected dy the aus” insiders, priceless
Ok so I’m not marking those papers yet – the indsiders has just started here in Boganville, needed some good laughter to get me kick started on unattractive task of grading.
Fran Kelly is behaving fairly even handedly. Barry Cassidy is rowing the Coalition’s boat.
Dr Bogan
What a load of emotive rubbish in the unhinged one’s open letter to the indies! I just couldn’t believe it.
But, then again . . .
Thanks ltep. I wonder what either party will do if it forms govt – push parliament back or sit as soon as possible?
Yes that was a marvellous moment from David Marr (and Glenn Milne, former Oz writer hardly contradicted him): “Did you notice a certain temperamental keenness by the Australian to see Abbott elected?”
Classic.
Glen Milne said re pokies ‘it’s not an issue for ordinary people like us’
Glen, Glen. You are extremely ordinary.
[ The poisoned dwarf is but a mere husk of a journalist.
The graphic showing his name referred to him as a *Political Commentator*.
They didn't even call him a journo, quite correctly of course, he is not a journos backside.
Why the abc allow him on the show is beyond me.
Give David Marr a gong. He keeps on keeping on. Glen can’t hack it, Fran blusters, they are cravenly pathetic. I’m a member of the ALP so this is a biased comment.
Insiders made the point at the beginning of the show that while Katter has apparently said he expects to make his decision today, the decision is still not expected to be announced until tomorrow and it will be done with Windsor & Oakeshott.
He is a good journo.
Barry Cassidy believes if Rudd had stayed it would have been a “decisive” loss for Labor.
Nicola Roxon is handling herself beautifully on Insiders – yeah I know we’re a bit slow over here in Boganville
How can that possibly be?
He is widely read, highly intelligent and does thorough research.
Watching Nicola Roxon on Insiders I tried to imagine Dutton in the position.
I failed miserably to do so.
he just doesn’t get the role of a journo, does he?
I thought Fran Kelly was fair and I am huge critic of RN Breakfast. Has anyone seen Abbott’s letter – sounds like fun.
I mentioned yesterday David Marr would have sport with the dwarf. hehe too good for the sawn off idiot.
If Dutton was on he’d have push the bluster line the Fibs have pushed in the last few days
YES because he says everything was pointing that way or wtte.
Well not “everything”…..NewsPoll wasn’t pointing that way.
Oh dear, Barrie Cassidy couldn’t resist the snide anti-Labor comment at the end.
You can get Abbot’s letter at Sun Herald – sorry no link maybe someone can cope with technology of doing it – I’m still a learner
No, no, no, there’s no bias at the ABC
He couldn’t help himself, “especially from the Labor side” regarding the bloodbath that will come on BOTH sides after minority government is formed.
I think I’m going to be sick;
Oh loved that comment on a certain keeness in the OO to see Abbot get up! never a truer word was spoken!
That lib-loving twit on Insiders is trying to brush off the black-hole.
Only one word to describe Roxon’s performance this morning – superb!
If you swear at me again by mention Janet Planet I will be forced to take a preemptive strike!
Couldn’t find the letter at HS front page = but those quotes from Pyne hve already been picked up:
“The coalition has also come under attack following Mr Abbott’s claim that its policies had been carefully modelled by the University of Canberra-affiliated NATSEM.
The economic body has since claimed it never spoke to the coalition.
Mr Pyne maintained that if Mr Abbott said it, “well, it must be true”.”
This would be the final nail if Abbott cannot prove what he said about NATSEM is true.
dogma, I have nothing left to spew up over Albrechtsen – she emptied my guts out a long time ago
After Glenn Milne’s comment that the Commonwealth car drivers are all saying “Gillard to become PM”, I am allowing myself to be quietly, cautiously confident.
She is honoured to be followed by the guy who advised the worst president in the history of the US. She clearly sets the bar low.
Here is Abbott’s letter guys:
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/why-im-the-one-to-govern/story-e6frezz0-1225914207324
The Abbott letter:
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/special-reports/why-im-the-one-to-govern/story-fn5ko0pw-1225914314598
Sorry wrong link!
Actually – it was the correct link – thought cause I was on Tele site that I had the wrong one.
Apologies Dr B, but JA is Australia’s version of Ann Coulter and if you like to BS you get follow’d by the king BS’er Karl Rove.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/special-reports/why-im-the-one-to-govern/story-fn5ko0pw-1225914314598
The letter from Abbot is definitely on Herald Sun page search for Abbot or can someone tell me how to upload a link to a copy – sorry technologically challenged!
Here’s the Curious Snail version of the Rabbott letter story.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/tony-abbott-pledges-to-put-country-first-to-woo-independents/story-fn5z3z83-1225914224372
Ok I see others have provided link to the Rabbit’s letter, but I’d still appreciate some remedial tech-head training from fellow bludgers
To be fair, Fran is not so bad this morning (Is the worm turning?), whereas Milne well no need to comment, the other commentator is trying hard to get a word in and is less unhinged
Dr B 1375
Lft click on address bar, scroll down to copy, lft click and scroll down to paste and click on it which pastes it on to post a comment on Poll bludger
Creepy.
It is good to see some discussion of MSM coverage
Highlight the news story link in the address bar at the top of your browser > right click on it and select copy > navigate back to pollbludger site > move cursor down to “post a comment” area > right click and select paste.
I wonder which country he has in mind.
That’s hardly something to boast about!
Thanks Metarzan I appreciate that heaps!
dogma
Posted Sunday, September 5, 2010 at 10:03 am | Permalink
JantAlbrechtsen Karl Rove is following me on Twitter, what an honour #ausvotes
6 minutes ago via web
Is Karl Rove looking for a position on the ABC board?
privi izumo,
I would be honoured if nelson mandela, or nobel peace prize winners, you know, somebody with actual honourable acts attached to their names, followed me on twitter.
She’s one of the many who think that way.
One more step closer to a deaol
Labor has signed off and agreed to the request for parliamnatary reform which includes increased independence for the speaker and changes to question time. A much more considerate and consultative chamber.
The ComCar drivers are of the belief that a deal has been made and that a Gillard labor government will be returned as Prime Minister
Oh love talking pictures, puts a sane spin on Insiders
DAW
Where did you hear ALP has signed off on P’tary reforms?
Thanks for the link.
Abbott won’t be thanking the headline writer. The “I” reinforces his biggest weakness. Remember that comment about not getting rolled by his cabinet? He just doesn’t come cross as a consensus kind of guy.
The letter itself is incredible. Okay, we all know it is not actually aimed at the independents themselves, but at least make an effort. This looks like a cut and paste from an election flyer.
Something statesmanlike, referencing the rights of the independents and how the Libs would respect the process would have been worthwhile. Presented as an open letter this garbage is just insulting and treats the independents as if they are some disinterested bloke in the burbs being forced out to vote to avoid a fine.
If this was aimed at me it would certainly make my mind up – but not in the way they had hoped.
Typical comment by Sutchbury, re the NBN could affect the pay tv channels , I can understand political journos looking the other way, but isn’t economics supposed to be a bit more objective?
On a tech note, I believe the pay tv cables do not have sufficient bandwidth to support all of the HDTV channels, so at some point it will have to be scrapped and upgraded.
But the I guess he isn’t a tech head
Abbott and News Ltd now are resorting to blackmail and scare tactics – I hope KOW don’t fall for it!
I’m taking my lovely dog Holly for a walk.
We have our own beach,* walk for yonks and not see another person. I don’t know why everyone doesn’t lash out and find a bit of space. There is plenty of it in Australia.
Cities are so crowded, I don’t understand them.
*it’s just there!
evan you ain’t seen nothing yet. Just wait till the we waz robbed campaign kicks in this week. It will be fun but constant.
Yeah they are pushing damage to the ‘social fabric’.
The indies have met Bob Brown and Brandt, and they probably noticed they don’t have two heads.
Everyone knows the social fabric hasn’t been the same since it started fading when they brought in daylight saving
They seem to be in step with Mr CentreBet.
Hahahahahaha……..Loved the clip on Insiders where Tone pointed out that Robb and Joe did the costings
I have never had any blog entry numbers showing on this site. Is this because I am running Windows XP and not a later version of Windows. I have seen numbered entries on other computers when I have logged in but none use XP. I mostly use Firefox but also occasionally use Explorer but neither show numbered entries for PB. Does anyone have a suggestion. Its not the end of the world but numbered entries would make it easier to keep track.
Which state are you in Grey ?
Because you use an LCD screen right? Lower your head about a foot and look at the screen at a different angle…
[evan you ain’t seen nothing yet. Just wait till the we waz robbed campaign kicks in this week. It will be fun but constant.] hope so I do enjoy a good born to rule temper tantrum
PoK@1397
Try adjusting your monitor constrast or brightness a bit. The numbers don’t show up well on analog monitors which have “faded” somewhat with time – especially as most people tend to bump up the brightness or contrast to compensate.
Abbott is unhinged. It isn’t the Greens who will ruin the “social fabric” of the country. The ‘social fabric” of the country is likely to be ruined by the unintended consequence of the election, namely Bob Katter will hold the deciding vote in the parliament on any legislation before it.
The Labor/Green alliance down in Tassie is obviously working well – David Bartlett seemed happy about it when he appeared on TV earlier in the week – so perhaps that’s a good omen for what might be about to come federally.
Abbott would probably be like Will Hodgman, and sulk for the next 3 years, if he’s in opposition.
If the removal van arrives as Gillard’s house today we’ll know it’s over.
Actually, it would be quite a funny prank if you owned a removal van to park it outside her house and take a few photos. Great publicity.
Question: Who’ll take over from Tuckey as “The Mad Old Uncle” of Federal Parliament?
Looking at the comments about commentators posted on this site has been fascinating and I think I have finally worked out the algorithm:
Any commentator that criticises anything ALP does is a liberal party hack
Now I understand the incomprehensible predictions of posters here that ALP was going to win 80-90 seats at this election. When I read those predictions I had to go back and reconsider my 73-73-3-1 prediciton- what was I missing? Now I realise who is missing what here!!!
Cassidy, et al, correctly predicted the ALP infighting as soon as they win minority govt (76-74 without Katter is my prediction) because that is exactly what will happen. ALP president already calling largest ALP division “a disease”. NSW Right will correctly argue they only effectively lost 1 sitting member vs. Qld so will think they were right all along (as they always do). Coalition MPs must be hailing Abbott for getting them to this position (although I dearly hope he is dumped, its not going to happen!). Doesnt anyone remember the dynamic/polls/commentating just 1 year ago? Who predicted this situation back then- the fact is as much as I hate it Abbott did very well (at least to election night) so Lib infighting will be orders of magnitude less than ALP.
And if I was the one who lent Tone the $710k I would get a Prushka debt recovery car to sit out the front of Tones.
No contest evan, the mad hatter, Uncle Bob Katter
If you want another pointer as to which way the indies look like going check out the last couple of days’ pages here and look for the posts of the usual conservative supporters. Where are they? Mind you, I don’t blame them.
All the leftards here are still counting their cygnets before they hatch and in their holier-than-thou attitude are assuming that a Labor minority will be returned.
In reality, KOW haven’t made a public statement yet. Katter is likely to state his position today, and there is nothing to suggest that he won’t back Abbott. If he does so, his colleagues O and W will more than likely fall into line tomorrow. A 76-seat bare majority composed of Labor+Greens+Wilkie+Oakeshott+Windsor just looks to frail to be workable, there would need to be too much compromise. On the other hand a LNP-3 Indies coalition would not be in too much disagreement.
Actually, nothing much has changed since when Labor were $3+ with the betting markets. Wilkie was always going to side with the left. There have been a few minor discrepancies with the Coalition’s election costings and this was admittedly a setback, but the sums involved over a national scale and a term of government are small. The Coalition has won on primary votes, seats and two party preferred. They are the clear winners and the ALP are the clear losers.
Enjoy your last day as Prime Minister, Dullard. It was nice knowing you.
David Marr was very cheerful with his several comments on the partisan position of the OO on Insiders this morning.
And Fran was quite even handed.
Nostrils do promise to be here tomorrow for the Great Unhinging. It will be fun.
Dear Mod Lib @1406, thank you for your insightful and excellent summation of a) this site and b) your amazingly accurate-soon-to-be-true predictions. You are certainly an oracle of truly breathtaking standard! I wish more of the posters here would take note of your a) well thought out argument and b) your insider knowledge with a twist of lemon.
I bet they don’t. Wishful thinking old son. The situation will save them from themselves. What quicker way to lose minority government than starting the infighting? They’re not that stupid. The Libs on the other hand …..
Steve
“The Great Unhinging”.
I like it!
Ah, Nostrils, right on the back of Mod Lib – welcome back! What, no “it’s over”, or “game over”?
You disappoint oh all seeing one.
I always wondered if Nostrodamus and Truthy are the same person?
Steve: I certainly will be here to see all of you left-Labor supporters together with your ogress unhinged and to see all the bloodbath afterwards. You might have to enlist Mickey Mouse as your new leader.
BK, just borrowed it from Possum.
One thing that seems to have escaped everyone with regards to party leaders is: they are almost always deposed. Howard lost his seat for the first time in a very long time. But few leaders retire quietly … they are deposed when renewal happens.
In the last term we had 3 ‘desposings’ two on the Liberal side and one on the labor side. It is the way of things.
The other option is to run it through tiny url to shorten the link length.
http://tiny.cc/
And then right click copy right click paste.
Nostra, at last. I bet you’re not around here if the indies choose Labor.
Excellent, I love that story! Is that the one with the monkey who races up and down a hill on a bike for 36 hours, drinks 200 cans of solo (all in one go!) and then stops the boats? I LOVE that story!
If Julia pulls this off, she’s out-negotiated and outmanoeuvered both Abbott and the MSM – it’d be quite an achievement!
But, I don’t want to jinx it, I’ve been wrong before, I still bear the scars from what happened to Gore in 2000.
I will be here tomorrow evening either way.
Actually, why am I saying either way? I know the Independents will choose the Coalition. Game over!
This over reaction suggests you’re not confident as well as lacking maturity.
LAbor sign reforms by independence, Fibs no news yet.
Marr did his bit to undermine Rudd. Nothing non-partisan about Mr Marr. He was as bad as the rest of ‘em.
George…..surely not sarcasm?
The thing is, there are so many to choose from amongst coalition ranks! It’s a pity Ron Boswell is a senator.
dogma
Best joke I’ve heard all day!
Abbott’s letter – it sums up the poor “game theory” aspects of the Coalition’s post-election strategy.
All along they are trying to berate the indies – while JG has quietly worked away. She has never said “If you side with Tony you will destroy the socail fabric of the nation”. It just comes back to Labor being so much quicker to accept that they did not win a majority and dealing with it.
The Coalition just can’t accept that they did not win a majority, and they have played their hand very poorly since. I am trying to think of one Coalition person who has not been belligerent since August 21. Tony, Robb, Truss, Hockey, Pyne, Bronnie, Sophie, Minchin, JH, Dutton, Entsch, JBishop – I’m losing count and still not one voice of reason concering the independents.
Woops that should be Labor sign p’mentary reforms by indies, no news from Fibs yet
If 11 *billion* dollars is a “minor discrepancy” what in your eyes is a major costing cock up? 100 billion? 200?
Abbott and co have looked like fools all week, admit it.
There you go, you didn’t disappoint, GAME OVER!!! I LOVE IT!!!
1426: Who is there left for the Labor Party after they dump Dullard?
Shorten? Swan? Arbib? Peter Garrett?
A bunch of unelectable hacks with no prospect of ever getting into government for the next twenty years.
If they know the game is up (?) then they may choose to not sign up.
Nostra and ModLib think psychological scare tactics will work here. Alas, you are deluding yourselves. The average intelligence on this blog is above such nonsense.
But feel free to enjoy yourselves if you think it might be biting in some way. I know, I for one just chuckle at the short-sightedness and lack of real analysis.
We’re not the ones with the ‘it’s over’ and ‘game over’ slogans, as rivetting as you might think they are.
Oh and lets all repeat: “stop the boats!” There — feel better?
(apologies William — am being mean again)
When Abbott retires in a decade I want to see Mirabella as Australia’s first elected woman prime minister and Dutton as treasurer. What a team that would be.
click in the window (on the PB page) and press ctrl + a or otherise select the entire page. if you see post numbers then it’s either your display or how your browser is rendering the page.
Confessions: my vote for mad uncle goes to Senator Heffernan from NSW- I actually think he has Aspergers (fantastic attention to detail but no social skills)…..
Whoever the indies support (ALP methinks) is actually irrelevant. The question is who is going to force byelections! Remember it is not the indies that have the balance of power, it is every single member. Anyone (on <10% I guess) can go to the PM and say "I want or else I wll resign and force a byelection which could change the govt”. How well do we trust our pollies? I am in the minority in thinking we have the best politicians in the world by orders of magnitude but it only takes one or two…
If Libs win: Surely Rudd will go and this seat could flip
If ALP wins: Wouldnt Ruddock go? But that seat less likely to flip
Just imagine a NSW member leaving in say Jan…..byelection around Feb/Mar 2011….anyseat on <15% could go in that scenario!!!
You’re a comedian as well, eh Nostra?
Ney, Nostra, I say 1000 years!!!! And then right-minded peoples like us can look forward to the 1000 year reich!
Slogans for Bogans!
Oh my God!!! That was soooo frikin funny! You should be one of those, you know, commeedgians, who get up in front of people and everyone laughs at them… oh wait…
Jenauthor, perhaps you should read what I said rather than looking at my name and deciding you disagree with me (I actually am pretty sure indies will side with ALP!)
BTW: Arent you one of the people predicting a >80 seat win for ALP? Were you the blogger who replied to my questioning that prediction with the words “Well see Mod lib we’ll see”. Well if that was you I guess we did see didnt we!!!
Mad Uncle? That’d have to be Abbott.
wow. you are huffing spray-paint. how do you do this nostrils? each morning do you religiously place your head on the toilet and repeated slam the seat down until you reach the appropriate mental state to type this? what has australia done to you that you hate is so much?
My nick is my electorate.
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Why wait ten years for the first elected Woman Prime Minister when you can see history being made tomorrow, right here.
zoomster 7:39 am
You must now be scanning the horizon for that hitherto impossible threat to your property – BOAT PEOPLE!!!
You need to urgently talk to Tony about getting your new “Island Home” excised from the immigration zone.
In the meantime, listen to the good (not soft C.Anu version) of “My Island Home”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lN-UHdYN_yo
Why bother? We’ve already had Australia’s worst ever Treasurer – John Howard.
http://canberra.yourguide.com.au/news/opinion/opinion/howards-record-as-treasurer-questioned/573574.html
http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20070627-Why-John-Howard-never-made-the-cover-of-Euromoney.html
Is that like the oldie-but-goodie joke about the Nationals ‘Nats’ being once called the Country Party ‘c***s’
i.e. The Biggest bunch of C***ts to ever govern Oz
Deepest fear at this point: The country independents have created a powerful sense of expectation they will go with Labor right up until this, crunch time, with the sole objective of extracting the absolute maximum they can from the Coalition.
Steam driven …
Er, wrong. The items you allude to are useful.
Sorry.
Alias, most of the negotiation will already have occurred.
Well, neither Oakeshott nor Windsor agree with Abbott’s views on climate change. Neither Oakeshott nor Windsor agree with Abbott’s views on “stopping the boats”. None of the three agree with Abbott’s broadband policy. All of the three are concerned about the complete lack of adequate infrastructure funding.
Oakeshott was a strong supporter of Labor’s BER program when it was introduced – see http://www.roboakeshott.com/node/455 He had a 60 / 40% record of voting with Labor in the last parliament. He was as strong supporter of getting rid of Work Choices and lauded the Fair Work act when it was established. He has an Aboriginal / Islander wife and experienced personal racism from Nat members as a result in his early “Nat” days. Doesn’t sound to me that he has much at all in common with the coalition!
The relationship between Windsor and Katter and the coalition is hardly any rosier! Somehow I don’t think any of them are going to pay much attention to claims by the Libs that they will be cosier in their play room than they would with Labor!
Cuppa, the John Howard hatrick. Great Economic Managers indeed.
Why couldn’t someone from Labor come up with the line ”you do it once, you do it right, you do it with fibre”. I never heard anyone using a line like that during the campaign. Very frustrating.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/windsor-backs-labor-on-broadband-20100904-14vd4.html
Alias: yes. I think that the independents probably decided to go with the Coalition ever since they realise they held the balance of power. They are just wringing from Labor what they can to get a better deal with the Coalition.
“On the other hand a LNP-3 Indies coalition would not be in too much disagreement.”
Nostrils cant add up.
Andrew got this right earlier – is this even a possibility? Crook is on the cross benches – where’s the deal on confidence and supply with Phoney?
Ltep..
I hope you’re right, but surely it’s not beyond the bounds for Abbott to rashly thrown more bones their way at the last moment out of desperation (even that would hardly be consistent with notions of stable, considered government).
“I always wondered if Nostrodamus and Truthy are the same person?”
We are not. Unlike my prescient friend, I think it is likely that ‘lard and her drink driving hairdresser boyfriend will be embarrassing us on the world stage shortly.
I don’t really follow Rugby Union but that must have been an amazing finish in South Africa.
Working in Deakin and Chisolm the last few weeks and I have hardly met one person who thinks there should be another election in the near future – the general attitude has been “Just get on with it”. Tony and his cohorts have been spruiking the “new election” thing a bit too much (more “campaigning”), while the reality is that the 3 indies may lose any influence if another election were held. Also this may make them suspect that if TA is PM he would try and go to the polls when the Senate turns nasty for him next year.
grey@1303
And Cue Uncle Doug Mulray
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXzGQld1tY8
Nostradamus@1461
Hey Nostrtils:
Need another round of Fecal Sandwiches for you and Pell to consume together ?
That’s correct lefty e, so far the leadup has seen the coalition unable to even get anything negotiated with their nearest and dearest country cousin. Crook has been put in the deep freezer where the Tories would put the whole country for three years if they could find a way to slither into power.
Nostra
You’re beginning to sound like the knight in that Monty Python skit who has lost both his arms and both his legs yet still insists it’ is only a flesh wound.
Or more recently, that comical Iraqi spin doctor who insisted that Saddam Hussein’s troops were in the process of flogging the US even as the Americans were marching into Baghdad.
Neither of them had a very good grasp of reality either.
Steve,
It makes a good slogan though! When they’ve got nothing else, they will always have slogans.
As with so much of what they say, it’s complete rot.
Darn @1468
Voice of truth
You forgot to say ‘stop the rot’
Nostro may be the person that went by the name Cerdic Conan on various blogs?
Nosey, as i said to Diog many many times. please leave the comedy stuff to me. you just focus with Toothy in “stopping the boats”.
alias I think you make the correct point. Desperation from Abbott and throwing money around is not going to match up with the Indies reported desire for stable considered government so it won’t, or shouldn’t work. We shall see
Pyne’s pathetic “If it’s Tony, it’s true” advertising jingle has made it onto news.com.au “Breaking News” section
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/liberals-still-suffering-costings-headache/story-e6frfku0-1225914365161
If the voice of truth = the truth hurts, that makes you painful correct?
Bill Hefferlumps?
As I said before , the three indies cannot go for Abbott unless crook agrees re supply and no confidence. He hasn’t declared yet
Yep, as far as I can see going with the coalition is presently not even a live option for the 3 indies.
What are signing up to? 72 plus a ‘maybe’?
This is a country not a game show.
Hmm:
Shineybum re your comments about David Marr on Insiders …..” he was as bad as the rest of em “,
don’t think so friend…the worst one sided comments were for Abbott and came from the jilted Cassidy he still hasn’t forgiven Rudd, hence Labor, for refusing to go on Cassidys ego tripping prgramme. He is past his used by date and should retire gracefully rather than continually make a fool of himself.
Why haven’t the coalition signed up to the parliamentary reforms? What’s holding them frozen in time like this?
MADCYRIL – Totally right. That would have been a great campaign slogan, and very frustrating. The fact that Labor didn’t go right on the front foot over its NBN with that sort of campaign is nuts.
“Oakeshott was a strong supporter of Labor’s BER program”
Oakeshott is a doe-eyed, entitled narcissistic. He would love to support Labor. It’s incredibly hard to imagine him supporting any conservative values…he believes too much in his own power.
The only thing holding him back was his electorate, which will destroy him in the next poll unless he can find good excuses.
Anyone who thinks the Geelong coach was ungracious after Friday night’s loss – wait for Tony’s presser if he “loses”.
voice o ftruth@1464
No, I can see you are not the same person – Nostrils is at least polite.
Isn’t that a Tory value right there?
Steve if they are going to lose they are better off not signing.
And I have never heard the Howard hat trick pushed by labor. Priority no 1 for the new government is to win the better economic managers argument . The 11b black hole will help
Stop the presses! I just ventured onto SkyNews website and the online “poll” there says Coalition 66% to 34% should form government. I will keep an eye on it – if it keeps going up like this, Labor must be about to get the nod.
So now we have a party unable to submit costings to Treasury on time. When they finally turn up they are $11 Billion out. They can not come to any arrangement with Crook. Now they can’t make a decision on Parliamentary reform.
Yep — I admit I was quite sure of an 80 seat win. I didn’t think that people would actually vote for fools like Dutton, for instance … but then again …
However, your side didn’t actually win either. So, I’ll wait to see what the indies do — and I do believe, though it has been scary, this outcome has given us the opportunity to make parliament better. So that is a good thing.
And might I add: if the indies go with Gillard – it will represent a shocking reversal for Abbott after driving a first term govt to a hung parliament, an astounding personal rejection of him, and also of Howard’s legacy: 11 years of neglecting the bush has created this near unbelievable situation (for those of us older than 35): the bush conservatives are genuinely odds on to side with labor.
Forget rancour within the ALP – this result leaves the faceless ones near to irrelevant for 3 years as Gillard has personalized deals with people outside the party. Watch instead for divisions within the coalition as the Nats realise its ‘independence or death’ for them.
The NBN is the classic issue here: what KIND of rural party could POSSIBLY oppose this policy?
Only a dead one, attached at the hip to an urban party that doesnt believe in nation-building.
The hour is upon us people
voice of truth…”The only thing holding him back was his electorate, which will destroy him in the next poll unless he can find good excuses.”…Mr Oakeshott’s electorate, in a poll published in ‘your’ preferred news rag the Oz, have by a substantial number told him to side with Labor. Where you been old boy?
What a beautiful set of numbers.
It’s like watching car racing for the prangs, the poor things. Oakshotte is doe-eyed?
He’s seen through your lot.
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/liberals-still-suffering-costings-headache/story-e6frfku0-1225914365161
A couple of reminders for Mr Pyne …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvYzLIywCiA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tc5ljcri6Nk
Cuppa
Yes, if only the interviewer had remembered the “sometimes I lie” meme of Tony!
David #1482
Oh, alright, Marr was not quite as bad as the rest of ‘em. He was no cleanskin, but.
Mod Lib @ 1440:
Actually by-elections will certainly come into play this parliament. I’m not convinced Ruddock will go – he didn’t last time, and I thought he was heading some policy review within the Liberal party? I’m not sure about Rudd either. My inclination is that he would retire if Labor don’t form govt. Somylay and Slipper could go too, but I’d expect the LNP to retain their seats.
This term of government will certainly be interesting!
I read Tony Abbott’s pitch to the Independents.
I’m convinced it wasn’t a pitch to them at all. It was more like a rallying cry to his base that he has so effectively mobilized over the last 9 months.
If the Coalition fails to form government with so called “Conservative Independents”, it will be seen within the Liberal Party as a failure of Mr Abbott’s leadership and there will be the beginning of a push by moderates like Joe Hockey (oh what the heck, Malcolm Turnbull) to change the leadership.
If (and it looks extremely likely at this point) Julia Gillard forms government, for the sake of her political future, she needs to make this situation work, otherwise things could get very messy. She’s already been handed to her a gift from Tony Abbott, but she needs to prove her leadership by governing effectively (which I think she is more than capable of after this brilliant display over the last two weeks)
Just on Beazley’s point regarding foreign policy, with 77 seats, that would look much more stable and I doubt the Independents would block supply unless something grossly negligent was going on.
Says it all really.
1) there is no such thing as an elected prime minister
2) if there was it about to be Julia Gillard
3) “suffer in your jocks”
Actually, perhaps Sophie Mirabella will take up the mantle of Mad Old Uncle of parliament.
And you’d want a bruiser, bully-boy to represent us on the world stage. I’d vomit!
If Katter decides today, (coalition) and announces today, I wonder if that will force WO to announce at the same time – it would made sense so K does not steal the day and momentum.
She’s certainly got the looks for it!
They have been doing that for MONTHS, and a large proportion of the public fell for it!.
For the sake of jangled nerves all round, let’s hope that the joint announcement by the three independents comes mercifully early tomorrow. About 9am would be good.
Steve if they are going to lose they are better off not signing.
And I have never heard the Howard hat trick pushed by labor. Priority no 1 for the new government is to win the better economic managers argument . The 11b black hole will help
Any chance of Abbott conceding and blaming the indies ?
An honour to be followed by yesterday’s man
The woman can;t even spell her own name
I thought Rudd did in his debate with Howard in 2007. Absolutely rendered Howard speechless at the time.
If you rearrange the letters Sophie Mirabella you get amiable polisher. I think there is something in that for all of us.
While O is reforming parliament, why doesn’t he throw in unnecessary POO. That will PO pissy pyne and Mrs Slocombe aka Bronny no end.
What;s in it for me is that you have too much spare time
Most people here are saying that Oakshott & Windsor are more likely to go to ALP & Katter more likely to go to Coalition, but here’s an alternate scenario:
Of the 3 rural indies, Katter has the stronger base in his own electorate. Kennedy is Katter country & no matter which side he chooses, it won’t dent his vote in the slightest.
He also been the most vocal in terms of criticising the Coalition, e.g. mentioning the farmers who committed suicide due to Howard’s policies. He has been open about how much he admires & is friends with Rudd. He also openly said that he considers Kennedy to essentially be a Labor seat, with 4 out of 6 state MP’s being ALP & also mentioned how Kennedy was held by Labor after his father retired.
So, another possibility is that Katter announces tomorrow that he’s backing the ALP.
If the other two rural indies are feeling uncomfortable about being the first to openly back Julia, then they can simply say that Tony no longer has the numbers, so it makes sense to do a deal with her.
….So, I’ll wait to see what the indies do — and I do believe, though it has been scary, this outcome has given us the opportunity to make parliament better. So that is a good thing.
Guess what Jen: WE AGREE!
Somebody jot down the time…..
PS: Left out the “your side” bit as while Tone is leader I dont think that characterises my position at all!
Hey guys what has happened?
Is Katter going with the Coalition?
Hey guys what has happened?
Is Katter going with the Coalition?
Voice @ 1485 I think the Coalition are reading this all wrong. The undies don’t risk anything going with Labor. Their electorates will get NBN, clinics – more money on health, education (already have with the BER) and without ever having to vote actually for the left. I predict that they will credit it all to the undies and their vote will increase. Give up this opportunity and they will be disappointed to miss out and punish them.
grey, an even sillier one here:
http://www.deanjackson.dj/nameanagram/index.php?n=Sophie+Mirabella
Surely the indies will have been bearing this in mind over the past couple of weeks …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AeNih2aRZes
Now, I am not generally a fan of things like calling the lib/nats the “COALition” or the “Fibs” or whatever (tho, I do like the affectionate “Kruddy”).
But, it irks to call coalition’s internet policy “Broadband”.
Much prefer to label it “thinband” – especially when compared to the NBN.
[grey, an even sillier one here:
http://www.deanjackson.dj/nameanagram/index.php?n=Sophie+Mirabella
steve
Sick, but apt.
*sniggers*
What’s happening I haven’t been here this morning. Doe sit look like Katter Coalition, himself announcing independently because he is breaking form the other two maybe?
[hard to imagine him supporting any conservative values…he believes too much in his own power.] like kicking someone when they’re down.
Top assessment Lefty e@1493…..couldn’t have put it any better myself
lefty e@1493
He will be “unhinged” with the rest of tones crowd.
The KOW want 24 hrs notice of a NO confidence vote, that implies to me, they will all be siding with the ALP, enables and allows ONE to be absent!.
Vogon Poet: Nothing of any real substance has come to light for days.
vik
I hope you are right but I think Katter illustrates why the coalition would have difficulty formgin a stable government with the three indies. All three are fed up with the Nats for being weak in government trying to stick up for regional services. But ideologically, I think Katter is still to the right of the Nats and Libs, whereas Windsor and Oakeshott are to the left – more of the old style Malcom Fraser-type rural conservative. The coalition could no more win city marginal seats adopting all of Katter’s wish list than Labor could, whereas adopting Windsor and Oakeshott’s demands would probably increase their appeal. I coudl easily see Katter promising not to oppose supply and not supporting either side (i.e. abstaining), as long as he could get more regional services and vote as he sees fit on other issues.
So much for Ken Wyatt being a strong advocate for indigenous people.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/mp/7882449/aboriginals-angry-at-wyatts-silence/
VIK – Very interesting thought. It’s just the sort of “mad” extravagant thing Katter might want to do. He won’t want to look like he’s being led around by the others. He’s 65 and might want to retire at the next election to the tune of “My Way”.
Bob Katter not making any statement today according to Sky News 1 min ago
Thanks Alias I guess we’ll find out later today in regards to one of them anyway.
Note the “changed their views on some of the positions.”
Peter J. Nicol@1524
The correct term is Narrowband:
“Narrowband for narrow minds.”
Good to hear, like Glen, that has put you up in my estimation.
So Voice of Truth is The TruthHurts? Is that how he got around being banned?
[The correct term is Narrowband:
“Narrowband for narrow minds.”
I guess it wouldn't suit Fred Nile then.
he did. it was, it was beautiful. howard looked like a guest on jerry springer whose cuckolded spouse is brought on stage. he just fell apart. i still remember him yelling, knocking his mic over and generally turning into everyone’s cranky grandpa. magnificent moment. people say debates don’t matter. this one did because instead of scoring cute points, rudd dismantled howard, piece by piece. howard didn’t turn up at the liberal gw bush mission accomplished election night by accident. he’s desperate to beat rudd, even beating proxy rudd by proxy will do.
Labor have quite a few sticks they can beat the Liberals over the head with. They need to do this, starting right now, and repeat them, mantra-style ever day until the public learn them by heart.
1) Howard’s Hat-Trick.
2) Costello’s and Hewson’s comments about Abbott.
3) And on the positive side – under Labor the only advanced economy to avoid recession; among the lowest debt, deficit and unemployment of developed economies.
It has been hinted at here previously, but I think it was Fran Kelly on Insiders who said wtte Abbott is still fighting the election with slogans (and bribes?) even after the indies talked of a new paradigm. Julia judged the situation better and immediately went into more statesmanlike negotiation mode.
Imagine Abbott negotiating a political deal with a foreign country. We’ll give you … Hang on, wasn’t that what we did over the wheat thing with Iraq?
Tones will. He’ll be the Mad Old Monkle.
Is there anybody out there in the seat of Indi? What is the appeal of Sophie Mirrabella to te people of Indi? Surely there is someone with standing in Wangaratta who could stand for Indi as an independent and take her on?
WHAT!, and lower themselves to Abbotts Conman status!.
And what if the leader asked a question he couldn’t answer. Would he just up and walk out?
People watch horror movies, don’t they?
Why don’t the independents and/or one of the major parties
throw in a stronger form, or reaffirmation of, pairing into the agreement
on new parliamentary procedures?
The new Government, of whatever form, will be much better able to
function effectively if foreign minister, PM and others are able to
attend international meetings without causing problems for important
votes back home.
Musrum: Noted.
Narrowband it is.
Sophie Mirabella as Prime Minister …
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!
… That’s all I have to say about that.
Yesterday, I was very disturbed to find out that Janet Albrechtsen went to the same high school as me (Seacombe High School although when I went there it was renamed to Seaview). It explains so much about why she is the way she is as most of the students who went there are completely feral (I don’t know how I survived).
Should also mention, when Tony Abbott got into parliament in 1994, he was very much like Wilson Tuckey. He’d repeatedly made silly points of order and he apparently he’d even ask John Howard questions in question time.
I think that the Abbott alternative to the NBN is not even a “band”.
As well as being thin and weak, it is also susceptible to interference,
and failure to meet expected demand.
Perhaps it is more like a “thinwisp” internet.
jenauthor @ 1547
No, he’d just come out with a three-word mantra.
He’d need a universal one, to suit all occasions.
I suppose “stop the waste” might do it.
anagrams
Andrew Robb = brown bread
says it all really
Scatterband?
Spur, I once saw a Labor question to Kim Beasley and he lept up and answer the question too. It can and does happen.
The proposed arrangements for the speaker look interesting.
I wonder how “withdrawn from the party process” the speaker will be in reality. In the UK the speaker becomes virtually an independent. At elections they run unopposed in their electorate so as to remove the party process.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/labor-signs-on-to-parliamentary-reforms-20100905-14vnf.html
Gweneth@1521: “I predict that they will credit it all to the undies and their vote will increase”
I think you underestimate how conservative the bush is, and how angry they will be. Especially since a Labor government is going to do all types of unkind things to the bush with the greens pushing some of the agenda. Broadband is not going to make a difference – it sounds good now but like most shiny new things, the novelty will wear off. And it won’t even be rolled out to most areas for several years.
The alliance won’t hold for more than 6 months. You can’t govern with the greens pulling you one way, Wilkie another, and three independents another, and incompetents like Swan and Gillard in charge (although some other Labor ministers are very talented).
Steve, apparently he’d repeatedly do it.
I think Paul Keating said that when he first came into parliament, he was considered the resident nutter on their side.
anagrams
voice o ftruth = sour grapes
What’s the bush worried about truthy, too many boats in the bush or are they wasting too much money in the bush?
I think when KOW eventually come to write their memoirs it will emerge that at a simple human level – politics aside -that the Labor side, led by Julia Gillard were just far more impressive human beings during this negotiation period.
In terms of future infrastructure provision through public/private partnerships (roads in particular), I found this very telling. The private toll-road owners have had too much influence on traffic flows (I only know Melbourne).
NBN hey …?
http://www.tonyabbottisright.com/DisplayFile.aspx?img=/Posters/Tony_7081_7c8f3.jpg&w=880
Yeah, exactly what the Libs want everyone to believe. If a Labor minority government has the opportunity to prove otherwise, I wonder who will be left to vote Liberal/Nationals?
voice of notruth, you are so far removed from reality there is little hope for your return.
NBN hey …? …onya cuppa
Search Engines
http://www.tonyabbottisright.com/viewposter.aspx?id=6423
Voice @ 1558 One of the most interesting developments in this election is the shifting nature of the electorate. We have all noted the shift of disaffected Labor voters to the Greens because the ALP has spent so much energy courting the aspirants and taking their strong supporters for granted.
There are also 4 country independents. The National Party, as a national party, is deeply splintered – their name is highly ironic. The Coalition has taken the “bush is always conservative” line for granted while they chase after the bogan vote in Western Sydney. The bush used to be aligned to the Labor party. In the current global state of play they need support to survive as communities in the face of those “free” markets the Libs love so much.
Both major parties have to take stock of the results. Labor had acknowledged this with the Green alliance – the Coalition rants and raves and stamps its foot. We will see soon enough who is right.
Quite a few here have been saying that since the election.
Abbott thinks “We will always be lower on {xxx}” is going to impress the hard-headed Indies because it impressed the dead-headed bogans in Queensland and Western Sydney, aided by a compliant media who refused to question anything Abbott said.
I can still remember the Economics debate. Hockey came out with “The Coalition is always lower on debt and interest rates, higher on surpluses”. I expected the supposedly economics-savvy collected journos to laugh him off the stage. Instead we got stony silence and pretty soon questions about Rudd and leaks resumed their normal place in the scheme of things.
For the Insiders today to re-create the Casablanca Rick’s cafe shutdown scene…
“We’re shocked, SHOCKED to discover there’s something fishy about Coalition costings!”
… was as good a nail in their collective professional coffins as anything.
During the campaign not one word of scepticism or doubt on the costings issue passed their lips or was entered into their keyboards (with the honourable exceptions of Colebatch, Tingle, Taylor and Gittins). Not one question was asked contrasting the proven lying, document-falsifying, perjuring Godwin Grech with the supposedly “serious criminal matter” of a minor leak to Lenore Taylor about interest rate calculations by the Coalition. Not one journalist followed this up, or asked a question on it, or on other costings matters. Instead they just toed the line and carried on about Mark Latham, or Julia’s earlobes, or how bored they all were.
Abbott still doesn’t seem to understand that the campaign is over. There are no more bogans and rednecks and slow thinkers to impress. More likely, he’s already making excuses for himself, and excuses for spending way too much time on spoiling attacks and not enough on policy development, costings, revisions and yet more policy development. They came to the campaign with a grab-bag of ideas and bribes, claiming to be fiscally stringent and conservative. The costings issue shows that the “stringent” bit was a total lie, one they nearly got away with. They repeated this irresponsibility with the public purse by offering Wilkie $660 million over the odds for Hobart Hospital.
The tragedy is that they may get away with it yet.
“I think when KOW eventually come to write their memoirs it will emerge that at a simple human level – politics aside -that the Labor side, led by Julia Gillard were just far more impressive human beings during this negotiation period.”
Well said. Liberal v Labor post election have been like schoolchildren vs grown ups.
There have been some remarkable babies in politics lately. In 2007, Rudd was like a big angry child, Howard a man. But most couldn’t see it so they voted in Rudd. Now we have Julia a grown and sensible woman vs someone who never grew out of his jock years in university. It’s kind of sad.
The bush may well be very pleased that three rural MPs have a veto over everything the government does. That was supposed to be the role of the Country Party, remember? As Katter points out, the Nats have failed miserably in that role. So now we’ll have a real “country party” in the box seat. As a Labor voter I’m not thrilled by that prospect, but country people may well find it a good plan.
If the Nats were doing their job, none of these guys would have been elected in the first place. At the next election, Scott, Forrest and Neville will probably retire. The Nats will be in serious danger of losing these seats to independents.
@ 1570
Well said. I can’t believe the Libs have spent these years in opposition without developing any policy – because when Abbott was required to bring policy out of his hat he mostly copied Howard, but pretended it was different.
Psephos @ 1572: Wouldn’t Labor at least have an outside shot at Hinkler?
Did anyone notice Cassidy saying on Insiders to Roxon wtte “if the three independents join you that will give Labor 76″..
What was going through his head?
The sooner Labor points out that under an ETS there woudl have been money (via carbon credits) for things like soil carbon schemes that would have helped the bush, the better. That was why Ian McFarlane was wiling to negotiate an ETS deal – he knew in the long run that climate change is a threat to farmers, and an ETS might help them. Likewise, mining tax revenue could pay for regional services.
By opposing the ETS and the mining tax, the coalition shafted their rural constituents in favour of campaign dollars from mining companies, and Clive Palmer bankrolling the National Party. Labor should be pointing this out: the coalition is mainly a group of wealthy ex-private school lawyers who live in northern Sydney and Toorak, not a regional area. I wish Labor would hammer this more. The coalition doesn’t give a damn about regional Australia.
Likewise in office, for 11 years the coalition banked huge surpluses, yet couldn’t find more money for regional services. But as soon as a few electorates in the NT are marginal, presto! One billion dollars for a train line to nowhere is found instantly.
Yank, yes perhaps, if we have a revival in Qld. Neville must have a large personal vote by now. It depends to some extent on what has happened in state politics by then.
Does anybody know who is instigating this?
Coalition’s Real Action Plan
http://www.tonyabbottisright.com/viewposter.aspx?id=4361
they don’t need policy, to them a labor government is anathema. They expected to walk in and sit down.That is all. The real reason they hate Gillard is that she is a doer. Ticker issues…..
Why would anybody born to rule need policy?
Psephos@1572
Does Labor look at these sorts of scenarios and get their people on the ground to suggest likely independent candidates?
Labor should try to make Scott, Forrest, or Neville Speaker. That would make things easier to manage on the floor.
dogma
In this article The Age says the challenge is being organised bya Qld parent named Ron Walker:
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/chaplains-in-schools-challenged-20100904-14vde.html
I don’t think they hate Gillard nearly as much as they hated Rudd. They respect and even fear her politically, but on a personal level she’s not nearly as hateable as Rudd.
Thanks to privi izumo @1399 and oscar @1401 for replying. Yes, colour and brightness adjustments and numbers magically appeared. I can now see the screen better too. Much thanks.
My sister lives in the bush and the degradation of services is a massive issue. She owns a small business – Howard did them no favours with the GST red tape. There is a lot of buried anger out there. And climate change is impacting in a frightening way – fires, floods. She is left wing and has seen the mood shift in the community.
I thought they are meant to be called “Christian volunteer” in order to get around this?
http://www.27bslash6.com/easter.html
Gweneth
Here in SA I’m sure there is now a lot of anger and frustration in palces like the Riverland, where owners of what should be rich, viable farms are rendered helpless due to not enough water being left in the Murray after it crosses the Vic border for their already purchased water entitlements ot be fulfilled. Their farms are now amost worthless. There are a lot losers from climate change in the regions.
Riverland may not elect a Labor MP, but I’m sure the right independent would have a chance.
alias @1562
Well said!
Socrates
That will make for a very interesting case to watch.
Socrates 1584
Thx for that.
From reading the article, the case will be about what these guys do, not what they are called. The system is seeing some schools sack psychologists and secular student counsellors and replace them with subsidised chaplains. I think the case will argue about the consequences of the program, which has been to entrench promoters of (christian) religeon in State schools.
I hope so. We’ll probably also see more Tony Crook type candidates – Nats pretending to be independents.
I heard a man from Riverland crying on Macca this morning as he pleaded for Vic and NSW to let the floodwater down the Murray.
You underestimate the intelligence of his electorate, V o t. They vote for him now because of what he stands for. Lyne isn’t an electorate full of old style country tea scones folks. The largest industries are things like health, retail sales, tourism, education etc. Agricultural pursuits come a long way down the list these days.
But Abbott has already given Oakeshott all the reasons he needs when it comes to going with Labor. The financial black hole, the coalition’s rubber band broadband (at a time when this electorate is one of the first in line for the fibre roll out, along with Windsors), the carping, negative, Libs campaign about anything and everything give Oakeshott all the ammo he needs and more when it comes to going with Labor.
On the Chaplain thing – in the West the education department has to monitor the spending of millions of federal dollars by the Christian organisation that runs the Chaplaincy program. The public servants were pulling their hair out because the group wanted to have zero accountability – “just trust us – we are Christians”!
In addition they wanted to stop other religions from supplying Chaplains and were disgruntled to find out that the government can’t really discriminate in that way.
Personally I think that Chaplains in public schools is wrong and part of pathetic stunt by Howard. I think they were looking for donations to mount the high court challenge but can’t remember the site.
Karlene Maywald should’ve tried to win Barker, either as an S.A. Nat or as an independent.
I was talking about the Libs psephos. At the moment Gillard is the one. Laborites would be foolish to do anything but let her lead. Factions don’t lead, she is brave and strong, let her be.
@ 1593
I am not an atheist, but I found the whole Howard religion-promoting slant disgraceful.
ShowsOn
I’d agree. But Maywald’s fate illustrates the potential for the Federal seats too.
That Labor has now gone along with…
Why can’t we have philosophers mentoring students? Or nano-technologists? Why do Governments still perpetuate the myth that you have to be religious to be moral?
What! The federal government can’t discriminate! How un-Christian!
She did more for her region than what the Lib will accomplish as an opposition backbencher.
Socrates @ 1589 ” Riverland may not elect a Labor MP, but I’m sure the right independent would have a chance.”
Exactly! They may find it very hard to actually bring themselves to vote for Labor or Green but they are very unhappy with the Coalition. The undies provide a perfect solution.
Yeah right the federal govt can’t discriminate unless ou’re gay or aboriginal of course
I wonder how like it will take most of Queensland to wake up they have voted for very little voice in government this term. It will be an awful lot of bluff, thunder and hotair from a rabble with no money, no power, no idea…
Please could one of the historians here enlighten me – when was it that religious education (as in Christian) was mandated as part of the Aus curriculum?
When I was at primary school in England, if your parents wanted you to have religious education, you went to Sunday School at the church of their choice. Religion was definitely outside “normal” education.
via poss.
Hope that this whole “truth in advertising” legislation doesn’t go off track. Much better to restrict WHO can run political advertising in this country. In other words NO CORPORATIONS (particularly multinationals like BHP and RIO). Citizens yes; corporations, no. I hope Bob Brown understands that.
Indeed, to regain some of its self-respect, Labor MUST kick the big mining companies in the balls for what they did. The mining companies must learn there are consequences. Such legislation would be a great start.
@1608: I am wary of anything of this nature. It reeks of last minute psychological tactics to create an aura of panic intended to flow out to the three electorates, and place last minute pressure on the three country independents
ShowsON
I agree on the chaplains, especially where they are replacing other secular counsellors. Quite apart from the proselytising issue, what does a chaplain say to a confused gay student, or a pregnant girl? It is very inappropriate.
If they are “volunteers”, why does it cost the public purse anything?
alias: me too. The coalition are desperate enough to try anything to frighten the indies.
steve 1606
The Courier Mail will do what they always do and only write articles that are negative and not write about the positive. Really I think some of these journos belong on anti depressants. Sad sacks.
The Qld ppl will justify their picks until the lib candidates or LOO (leader of opposition) whoever that will be in this term, makes them mad enough to vote out.
ShowsON 1603
Yes I wasn’t having a go at Maywald either. I have met her and apart from her striking lack of height, she struck me as a reasonable person who was trying hard. But if she can lose her seat, then there is a lot of anger out there.
To be fair to the people of Indi, (and Sophie M’s power to charm), she has had some big swings against her – the seat was on its best ALP 2PP figure in 2007 since about 1930, and has only moved back to her on 2PP by less than 1% – and she achieved that by a big advertising campaign, estimated by the ALP there as in the vicinity of $250,000 worth (compared to their budget of a few thousand dollars).
In QLD it is supposed to be an opt in part of the curriculum, in practice it is opt out where you have to supply a letter indicating you don’t wish to have your child braiwashed. I have had my letter get “lost” 3 times now. And have had to bail up both the principle and the chaplain to keep the fundies away.
when the other kids are colouring in James and his technicolour coat or whatever they do, my kids were having to do homework, in the same class room! I saw this as punishment and insisted they be allowed to go to the library. All this in a secular state school.
No Presser from Katter:
Truthy and ShowsOn are both back!
My goodness, who’s returning next?
Gillard announced she would be expanding it before the election.
Frank…Sky were saying that 2 hrs ago as I mentioned way back then…they are obviously closely in contact with Roberty Bobs office.
And reducing it after the election?
Jon,
You’ll be pleased to know that most kids turn out all right despite the best intentions of their parents.
Most schoolkids prefer to be with their mates doing whatever activity. Banning themfrom regular activities may cause feelings of social isolation, loneliness and frustration.
Good thing we’ve got Chaplains for them to talk through these issues.
Jon @ 1617
Jon , that is an absolute disgrace!
For anyone who is unaware, (I wasn’t until yesterday), it is possible to watch ABC News 24 live online via the (excellent) ABC I-view service (just google it). Could come in handy as events unfold tomorrow.
Lets face it: the Labor right have no shame when they are desperate, and have a strange inability to comprehend why they receive no respect afterwards.
That “LetUsRejoice” tag isn’t all that appropriate. Another freakin’ day!
Talking Independents,I always thought Labor made a mistake not preferencing Shepparton Mayor Chris Hazelman in the 1999 Vic election.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/vic/2006/guide/shep.htm
He made the news later for allowing “women-only” sessions at the local pool to help accommodate local muslim (mainly albanian origin) women.
http://www.mumsweb.com.au/what-cheezus-me-off-enter-your-own-risk/55616-swim-moves-make-splash.html
He is the sort of person that a seat like Murray (where Shepparton is) would vote for. Hopefully there is someone like that in Benalla – maybe get a cousin of mine?
As I thought, the three of them will do a joint announcement tomorrow. Katter has nothing to gain going out on his own.
Greensborough Growler@1623
True. Australia’s youth is among of the most irreligious in the western world.
If the ALP gets up it will as enjoyable as seeing Collingwood lose a Grand Final by a point after the siren in controversial circumstances.
Dio @1620 One of the things I strongly disagree with Julia on…but perhaps a successful high court challenge will make it moot point
lizzie @ 1607 It isn’t mandated because they can’t – they put it under the heading of “values” education. They are technically “volunteers” as they are not employed by the government but by the parents by way of “voluntary fees” and the feds give money to a NGO to prop this up. At least that is how it is done on WA. Some chaplains are excellent – some are incredibly dodgy and we little control. Stinks.
I am an atheist and I choose a secular education for my children. I have no problem with people having different spiritual beliefs but they can organise tuition for that in their own time or opt to pay for a private education.
Abbotts letter was like a jockey belting the living daylights out of his mount with his riding crop, over the concluding stages of a race. Some horses respond to having the crap beaten out of them, others don’t.
Maybe use of the riding crop should be banned.
Then again, some people never change their ingrained pre-set personality.
zoomster 1616
Hope the “Boat People” line wasn’t too flippant! I have never lived in a place that was flooded, but I remember Cyclone Thelma threatening to turn our Darwin house into matchsticks (it changed direction luckily) and this sort of threat does tend to concentrate the mind onto what is important in life.
So hope everything is going OK.
Who selects who the “chaplain(s)”?
Along with individual violin lessons.
jodiespeers Katter has been lunching with Abbott’s Chief of Staff and Bill Heffernan in Canberra… did a runner as soon as the camera showed #auswaits
PY – are you a former Hong Kong jockey?
Hmm:
Musrum,
Only goes to prove that all that rhetorical hot air about the Chaplains prosletysing our youth in to the army of God is a little bit overblown don’t you think?
Re the Katter/Abbott lunch. I suppose Katter has to do Abbott the courtesy of hearing out a final pitch. Or maybe he’s delivered Abbott the bad news. Or maybe Katter still doesn’t know which way he’ll go.
Heffernan hates the Nats, so I am sure he and Katter had plenty to lunch over!
Sorry it was Abbott’s chief of staff, I now notice. My mistake.
Apologies for the grammatical errors in last post.
we have little control
Cue jokes about dining with the devil.
Py Abbott STILL dosent get the election and as usual overreaches. DAmage to social fabric? Huh ? Sounds exactly what an Abbott govt would do
GG,
You are correct, teaching children to cast a sceptical and rationale eye over ideas that are patently absurd is likely to diminish their sense of self, luckily there are pursuits such as sport, music and art to expand their horizons thus I feel no guilt.
Laocoon @ 1635
That is part of the problem.
why should they get the opportunity? it’s a public school.
Jon,
Of course not, it’s your kids that get to have the guilt.
The recriminations afterwards would be as much fun as watching an all-in brawl at a Carlton Collingwood game, with multiple suspensions for both sides.
I think the Magpies recent run of form is the real reason for the gloom that has descended over our nation. That or the risk of Abbott as PM.
It doesnt surprise me either – Katter always had zero incentive to go solo.
Kennedy’s got loads of labor voters in any case, and if anyone WASNT going to fall for pressure from the Nats, it was the Big Kat.
Personally, I think the Greens strategy of holding out for a proper carbon price policy that actually cuts emissions will shortly be vindicated.
Thats when everyone will suddenly wake up to the snow job we’ve been getting from the Tories and MSM about climate action: farmers will MAKE MONEY from a properly organised carbon price.
Dough. Moolah. Dosh. Dollars.
In the hand, on the land.
Greens and farmers do have common ground.
Great insight Socrates.
Oh for a true seperation of church and state!
BK@1631
Sorry BK, but I’m going to have to pull precedence:
Musrum@1953 on D-day plus 1 – The Poll Bludger
All AFL Grand Final/Federal Election analogies on Poll Bludger should properly slot the Carlton “Blue Bloods” into the role of the born-to-rule Opposition.
Thank you for your future compliance
Assuming the existence of God is the ultimate example of rhetorical hot air.
Do you mean the guilt they get from forcing them to believe that jesus died for their sins?
Zoomster – hope your household is OK and that the animals are safe.
Thanks forf the INdi news – well done voters. There wouldn’t be much left in the SM or Prissie Pyne lockers if another election was called so we may not see one for another 3 years.
Thankyou anony for your courtesy
I’ll bear your advice in mind, Musrum.
Do “chaplains” have to be (a form of) Christians? Or can they be of other religious faiths?
NSW Labor are living proof of that.
Anyone see any significance in Katter lunching with the Abbotts COS and Heff ?
Why should they need to have any faith? Why can’t they have a Ph.D. in analytical philosophy? Or a Masters in Clinical Psychology? Or a First Class Honours in Social Work?
Did Katter bring a long spoon to sup with the devil
Even though the indies statements may seem positive for the ALP it is hard to read much into it.
At the moment I see independents who are trying to protect themselves from criticism which ever way they jump. I worry that these positive statements are designed to look like they are independent & working out their options, when in fact they will revert to type.
They may well say, ” ALP policies are great, but….”
Musrum,
Your comment is likely to get you a surly look and a punch in the mouth from most Collingwood supporters because it reminds them of a dark day from days of yore.
It is a straight steal from George Harris, iconic past President of the Carlton Football Club who utterred the famous comment, “What’s better than beating Collingwood by ten goals. Winning by 5 points in a Grand Final”. This was said immediately after the 1979 Grand Final Carlton victory.
George was always the sensitive type.
It’s noted that Collingwood are still whingeing about that loss.
The poor little buggers are confused enough without someone with a PhD in analytical philosophy advising them!! The other two would be fine.
Greensborough Growler@1640
Not really. The Chaplains in Schools program was a policy constructed to reverse this trend. It may or may not have its desired effect. Only time will tell. Remember it took a few years for Howard’s ABC Board appointments to filter down to the pointy end.
Musrum
You will note my recognition of this law of physics at post 1651. Perhaps we could go with a Nationals or One Nation analogy for Collingwood? Though that hardly explains their curren form.
Windsor was very strong on the NBN though
No guilt, just the joy of being able to live life without oppressive and manipulative dogma holding them down. I don’t force them to be rational, given the mental tools most people arrive at that position of their own volition. However not always it would appear.
As expected by all thinking people.
Katter is a master of “ the ambiguity.
Dio, we could consel them in anything! Of course, they would first have to prove that they had a problem.
GG
How would you feel about the scientologists being paid to counsel in schools? Or Sheik Hilali? If they all belong to recognised religeons, then they could all get a gurnsey (and my tax dollars) under the Howard/now-Gillard (yech) scheme. I don’t expect to get paid by the State to argue philosophy, so an earlier coment about violin lessons seems quite apt.
Greensborough Growler@1666
I am a Collingwood member. I’ve let go of my rage since ’75 and I’ve gotten over ’79. I can now take George’s original quote and do with it as I like…
Or even Steven Fielding?
Anyone who allows their children near a priest or any religious teacher, should be charged with parental neglect. The potential damage that can be caused to young children’s minds is often irrepairable.
Dee: I feel much the same as you. At the end of the day, anything’s possible, and I’ve just decided not to get my hopes up, and to just wait and see what happens.
Or Rev Fred Nile?
Or the “Little Pebble”
Howard’s government, and any following government that allows these religious “mind polluters” access to young children are accessories to the corruption of young minds, and are equally as guilty as the priests and the religious teachers who do the actual harm.
Musrum,
Second hand quotes for a second hand team. Enjoy the mediocrity.
Socrates@1669
Collingwood is a working class club formed in the 19th century. It has had a proud history of success, with some relatively lean years of late. I’ll leave you to join the dots…
Dee / Confessions
If there’s no announcement that Abbott has agreed to parliamentary reforms then the indies have not agreed to back him. Not saying that’s the only issue (far from it as we all know) but it is an important one and would appear to be a rather simple one to agree to – unless you know you’ve lost and therefore want to retain the old nasty QT stunts in your arsenal.
Like Environment Mnisters and isulation installers, perhaps?
Greensborough Growler@1681
fixed
Musrum,
Collingwood are the richest club in the AFL. They have won one Premiership in the the last fifty years. So, yes ancient history is all they have.
But, what is their role for existing today?
So has Katter got a free lunch from the Rabbit while doing a Wilkie “double cross” by not supporting those born to rule?
Peter
You are reminding me of that scene from Bad Boy Bubby, ” It is the duty of all human beings to think God out of existence.”
http://www.quotesstar.com/quotes/y/you-see-no-ones-going-23118.html
Great movie.
the ruddster is tweeting again
Rocket Rocket @1634
No, we’re actually quite enjoying ourselves at present…the river is falling, we’re safe, the stock are safe, we’ve got plenty of food and our feet are dry!
Greensborough Growler@1686
There are no pretentious “We exist to win premierships” motherhood statements that define us. Collingwood exists because of its supporters.
It is not Top-down, but Bottom-up.
voiceoftruth@1485. In your dreams! He’ll win well if he wants to go again next time and you can hold me to that.
All jokes aside..
Does anyone have a full list of who the independents have been meeting with and when?
The Katters were next door neighbours of mine in Brisbane some four decades ago. Nice family. Owned a lovely bassett hound called Kandy. At the time Bob was dabbling in a law degree at UQ. He was busy and I was busy, I only remember him speaking to me once. That was at an anti -Vietnam war rally in the city, organised I think by the unions. We just said a brief hello. I assumed he was an Asio agent.
I’m sure it was at the same meeting that Arthur Calwell was presented with a silver tea tray for services to the union movement. My wife and I thought this hilarious given the occasion of the meeting.
There should be a Register in federal parliament (open for public inspection) of all those who attend the Parliaments bible study groups/fellowships.
It is important information to enable electors to make informed choices.
Just had a look around Rob Oakeshott’s website……..comes across as a genuinely nice bloke who gets very involved in his community……if there were more Indies like him, I might be tempted to vote for one……..
Then again, I’m a dyed in the wool Labor man and live in Kingston, which is now a safe Labor seat thanks to the NBN and a very good local candidate in Amanda Rishworth…….so will hopefully never have to seriously consider that option…….
But I would like to see more Federal MPs of his ilk…….
PY @1695, where are our good investigative journalists? Why aren’t they out following Pell around, and exposing the secret lobbying of the Church?
Wonder what sort of abuse Oakeshott will have hurled at him tomorrow on here if he goes with the Coalition.
Why stop there? Shouldn’t they also publicly state their sexuality etc?
Not relevant. MPs have the right to some privacy.
I meant to add that I don’t remember Bob buying and selling m(any) cattle or cutting much cane. He seemed to be a bit of a dilettante. Obviously I misjudged the man.
Bye the way………does anyone think there is any chance of another election in Boothby??……..love to see that seat-warmer kicked out!!
You could always write to Ursula Stephens and ask if she could send a list of people in the group. I don’t see how it’s relevant though. They all mostly vote strictly along party lines.
ltep
I have asked the question whether people would respect the indies decision.
It seems the indies are only responsible, decent etc if they go with Labor. Although Gusface was quite fair about it. We may not like the decision but we should respect it, whatever it is.
Diogenes 1703
I for one will respect their decision. I have repeatedly challenged Coalition bloggers here to make the same statement, but “the rest is silence”.
Whatever happens, the indies owe Australia detailed reasons for their decision.
I have actually been in the same room as Pell. As a person he is quite “magnetic”. He is massive in structure and following him around would not be a job for the faint-hearted.
Maybe special ASIO agents could be assigned to the job…with clear instructions to publish weekly reports on a special web-site – so the information would be publicly available.
That will depend on whether he can make a genuinely convincing point of why he chose the Coalition.
It gets me that the three indies made a huge point about the Coalition costings & outing them against the Rabbott’s wishes only to then say that it won’t have a large bearing on their decision. Windsor made a big thing of it but by day two he was implying by his wording that it wasn’t that important.
I think Itep, that you & I agreed on the point that we suspected that these negotiations were all theatre. Afterall, if you claim to be an independent then you must behave in a way that supports that perception.
Nothing would please me more than to be proven ”Wrong”.
It is, after all, ASIO’s job to protect Australia from menace.
c’mon indies lets get down to business!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGOohBytKTU
Crap!
Nobody with any sane decent independent mind could go for the Liberals. No NBN, $11b costings black hole, and crappy lying slogans like “stop the boats”.
The Indies MUST, fair dinkum, side with Julia!
The relevance relates to their sanity. Anyone who believes in ” God ” and many of the other central tenets of religions must be considered suspect of suffering some form of insanity at least, susceptible to having the wool pulled over their eyes and unable to make decisions based on logic.
Dee, I’m not sure any more if the negotiations were theatre. Perhaps I’m getting soft but they’ve sort of fooled me that they were genuine
There’s compelling ethical reasons to go with either side, the public didn’t think either side worthy of a governing majority and didn’t completely buy what was being sold be either side. Therefore I think they could quite validly support either side.
That said, they’d better support Labor or else.
If Katter’s decided to go with Julia he would have the decency to explain this decision. I hope this is what he was doing at lunch.
That gets me as well. There’s no way that Abbott can go anywhere near meeting his election promises AND return the budget to surplus. The spending promises were only ever lies and if the indies can’t see that then they are worse than useless. So don’t expect me to say “Well done boys, you did the right thing for the country” if the support Abbott.
Because that’s the only responsible, decent thing to do.
I’ve actually been allowing myself some optimism for the past couple of days. This tweet has sent me crashing right back down to earth.
Eden-Monaro is about to lose its bellwether status.
Our genetics and lifetime experiences also influence our ability to make decisions based on what you call “logic”.
Religion is only one part of a number of factors which influence an individual and the way they live.
It’s impossible to screen everyone to find something you’d regard as “acceptable”.
itsthevibe
Perhaps Katter is giving them the bad news.
Well, surely the biggest sign about the way the negotiations are going is coming from the major parties themselves?
We’re hearing almost nothing from Labor.
We’re hearing lots from the Coalition, all negative.
In sensitive negotiations, its unlikely you’d be going public with your negativity if you thought things were going well.
1713: Presumably he’d do that with Abbott though. Chief of staff? Perhaps ironing out the details of the written agreement?
So why do a runner?
Vibe, you must learn to not let your mood be effected by who Bob Katter has lunch with.
As far as religious instruction in state schools goes it is a State rather than Federal matter.
Victoria has an “opt out” process for anything more than the teaching of essentially the socoiology and hoistory of religion:
To my way of thinking this process isn’t in accordance with the spirit of 2.2.10 of the Victorian Education and Training Reform act of 2006 which requires that:
At a Government High School in Sydney in the 1960′s (a school with an enrolment of around 200 students in each year), I remember there about 6 of us in my year who were “exempt” from the standard christian religious instruction fed to most of the students for an hour or so every Friday. I and one of my cousins were agnostic / atheists and the other 4 were Jewish children. I knew many other agnostic / atheistic children of similarly minded parents at the school but in those days they were worried that their children might be stigmatised if they didn’t attend.
It’s Katter. We’re not applying normal human behaviour here.
Why? Katter is ONE independent.
itsthevibe. The Katter works in mysterious ways
I agree with TH @ 1714.
Rudd was held to an impossible account for SUPPOSEDLY not keeping his election promises and here is that Monkey who already cannot keep his election promises and balance the budget.
Dio, I’ve for a while been of the view that Oakeshotte will go with Labor, Windsor is genuinely not sure and Katter leans towards Abbott.
I think Katter is having to choose between Labor or just plain sitting on the fence (an abstain on no confidence)
1720
Very disappointed if thats the case, but what can you do. Maybe he has already told Abbott this morning.
LTEP and Diogenes: Heh, fair enough. *back in my box*
I thought the three were going to go home for the weekend and have a think on their own, without interference from other pollies.
Then I thought, OK, they’ll stay in Canberra to get out of the way of lobbying locals.
Apparently neither is true.
Perhaps they should have been forced into retreat on a high mountain.
umm.. correct me if I’m wrong, but Windsor went home and the other two stayed in Canberra?
That is how the Rabbott tackles every issue. Can you imagine him on the world stage?
Could that mean Windsor has said “you two work it out”.. or could it mean he’s already decided.. or could it mean he’s worried about his electorate?
You’re right cud chewer.
1732
Thats correct. Oakeshott still working on his parliamentary reforms. Won’t disclose his decision until he has agreement.
and Katter staying in Canberra.. why?
Unlikely the last cud. Just wait until tomorrow and all will be clear. You could go insane pondering over every thing the independents do.
You’ve gotta be in it to win it, Tone!
Cud Chewer that’s correct and Julia stayed in her Canberra office yesterday in case the indys needed to clear up any issues and today Rabbotts Chief of Staff was meeting with Katter in Canberra.
Just looking into Nostral’s crystal balls and I can see that the Swans will beat Carlton, then the Bulldogs, then St Kilda, and then beat Collingwood by 1 point in the WOMEN’S Grand Final
I have a degree in anthropology, a degree in philosophy, a masters in theology and two grad dips in counselling. I can work as a chaplain or a counsellor and do both roles in different settings, informed by christian values, not driven by them. All this argument about chaplains etc is a false one. Everyone has a value system. Belief in God does not threaten children anymore than having no belief in God. If the not for profit sector which includes churches withdrew from the welfare and education sector there would be a massive cost to the community. EG the better access to health initiatives for psychology addressing depression was blown six months into the program. This was reported in the age. What you look for in the people helping professions are people with a broad life experience. Translating this into politics, we are probably in a degree of haitus in Australia because we have a dearth of these in parliament. A lot of psyches don’t work in the education system also because its not the best paid job around at the moment for them. Just a point of view. I know there will be many others.
Another option (just throwing it out there): Katter’s a smart old snake. Perhaps the two other indies have decided. Perhaps Katter is going to side with them, and, once the alliance turns unstable, back the Coalition in a no confidence motion.
Abbott is a Rhodes Scholar with a degree in political philosophy and has been a back room head kicker for years. The public idiot is ruthless and brilliant in private. He organized the jailing of Hanson, who was stealing Coalition votes. He took down Kevin Rudd on his own, the higher rating PM in history, by leading a brilliant campaign behind the scenes. Something to consider.
#1737
There would be no logical explanation.
Cud chewer I second that request: any meaningful news this afternoon?
I’ve considered it. What total crap.
Centre@1741
I must be a completely socialised AFL supporter. I had to switch my mind back to 1955 to work out you are using WOMEN as a pejorative term…
You can keep your Rupert-ball, and your troglodyte attitudes…
Truthy, Rabbott was so smart that he has stolen most of Queenslands voice in government and left you whistling Dixie in the dark. A great result that one, sheer political genius.
I speak as someone with no links to any political party and no degree in political philosophy. If Abbott hadn’t been seconded in every move by the rightwing media, I really don’t think his campaign would have been as brilliant.
He also had some brilliant sneaky advisors like Minchin and Robb.
voice o ftruth@1743
An alternate theory: Katter knows that the most he is going to get from the Coalition is a prawn cocktail. And he is grabbing it with both hands…
voice o ftruth
Thanks for reminding us. That is the other big lie he was caught out on. SNIP: Legally dangerous comment deleted – The Management.
Musrum
You can apologise for that use of women as a derogatory term & stick it back right where it came from – you sexist
Bollox.
I hope if they do their press conference at the same time tomorrow, it is bit more organised than Wilkie’s was. I felt sorry for the bloke, he was so close to all the feral media, who turned on him when he announced he was going with Julia. I hope there is a lot more space between them and the journalists. Who knows what could happen?
It should have a large bearing on their decision. Costingsgate was an attempt to foist a gargantuan lie onto the electorate, to the background noise that we should trust the Coalition’s innate skills with the national finances… all while they were asserting that it was Labor that couldn’t do its sums. It was an attempted rort on a national scale. The media was in on it, either by commission or omission. They didn’t care about the costings, even though they were central to the campaign.
The scam was never supposed to be discovered. Rather it was designed to be buried in a noisy bloodbath of “Shock! Horror!” headlines – supplied by Murdoch outlets – as the incoming Coalition government discovered to their disdain the dreadful fiscal black holes left to them by Labor (which would have naturally made all Coalition promises suddenly inoperative). It was a re-run of 1996, writ even larger, with Robb the architect, again.
In any decent world that would be enough in itself to disqualify the Coalition from government. Lazy, inept, arrogant… it shows they haven’t learnt any lessons. Costingsgate should indicate to the Indies that anything that’s promised to them will be mere Abbottspeak: snake oil designed to be washed away when the first load of laundry is done.
The nastiness, the phone calls, the harassment, the insane “Socialism Is Nigh” posturing of the Coalition should show – in a sane world – that they can’t be trusted, relying on slogans and scare tactics instead of solid policy to attain office. If they can foist the heist of the century on the Australian people – $11 billion worth of empty promises, unfinancable “complete bullshit” (as Tingle put it) – what would they try on the three disaffected ex-Nationals, rats in the ranks to the Liberals’ Coalition partners? It’d be sickening to behold.
But that’s in a sane world.
Lighten up fellas
I am watching Swans & Carlton now, then Manly & Bulldogs, readers can make up their own minds
Maybe they just need a focus group. Isn’t that how decisions get made these days?
Dr Bogan@1752
I will. If you can show your working.
“If Abbott hadn’t been seconded in every move by the rightwing media, I really don’t think his campaign would have been as brilliant.”
I’m talking about his anti-ETS campaign, where he fear mongered about electricity prices on a grass roots level. It killed the government polling in Western Sydney, leading to panic and the knifing of Rudd. Most of it happened behind the scenes.
How running with a ball can be considered football is beyond me.
Should Gillard end up forming government what do the bludgers reckon will be Abbotts fate? Will there be a spill straightaway and, if so, who will get up?
There are plenty of compelling reasons not to go with Abbott:
* Confessed liar
* Economically incompetent, as verified by John Hewson and Peter Costello.
* The eleven BILLION dollar hole in costings with which he attempted to con his way into power.
* Committed to ripping off Australians with Work”Choices”.
* A religious ratbag, right-wing extremist and “erratic” character.
* An all-spin, no-substance sloganeer who avoids hard policy work, dodges media scrutiny and flip-flops like a weathervane.
* Opposed to the mining tax – lets billionaires make off with our finite mineral wealth leaving the country bereft now and into the future.
* A widely-discredited broadband “plan” that would put us on the road backwards.
* Part of the Howard government that took money out of public health and tertiary education.
* Climate change denier – a dangerous position that perils the future of our children and planet.
gebungalah
I understand your point of view and sympathise with it.
However, I am a person who hates to have anyone else’s beliefs stuffed down my throat and the fundamentalists of any religion have a habit of doing that. I fear for a Christian system that allows Exclusive Brethren, Scientologists’ and their ilk to creep in under the guise of religious freedom. I think that this has been encouraged by Howard, whether he meant to or not.
Musrum
Apology partially accepted because women are always working, employed or otherwise
cud chewer@1753
Well it depends of which God. There are some relatively benign ones out there. And then there are some truly Evil beings who are capable of genocide.
1759 – Hurts, is that you?
All of equal efficacy.
No, he’ll lead for at least a year, probably longer.
two hats and a heiferman
more like a meeting from
AIW
and bobkat running is cos he is always late
Kicking the ball is an integral part of League actually Gary.
@ 1759
I think all the capitalists/rightwingers came out with the electricity prices scare, all over the country. It was such an easy lie.
The Katter meeting could just be to get the Coalitions sign off on the Parliamentary reforms?
Also musrum
I was offline from pb for 5 hours marking papers & preparing for classes & editing an article which is why I want to know if there have been any important developments since then. Any new information appreciated.
Honest Abbott:
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/08/27/1061663853365.html
Stupid comment. It actually happened in the headlines and across the airwaves. If it happened mostly behind the scenes then it would have died an early death. The MSM were the main opposition over the last 18 months with Her Majesties Opposition applauding their efforts and calling out “We agree!”
Dr Bogan@1764
You twist my words and suddenly I’ve made the horrible your/you’re error!
Haven’t you got some papers to grade?
OT
I understand in the early days of colonial life viz marsden
there was the
the way things change,the way they stay the same
I wish I shared the same confidence in Katter some of you here do, to go with Labor.
I have been watching and listening to him carefully over the last 2 weeks and I still have the feeling he is an unknown quantity. This meeting would make more sense if Abbott was involved, given the PM stayed back in Canberra yesterday in case? What does lunching with a sworn enemy in a Nat have do to with any questions or issues? If I hated the Nats as much as Katter dislikes Heffernan, on sight I would be saying, “what the f–k are you doing here?”
Sorry to be a doubter, but this ‘ lunch ‘seems rather sinister, particularly as Katter took off at the sight of a camera, if that is what happened. He usually loves being in the limelight.
Doubt Katter could give two hoots about parliamentary reform.
Thanks Itep … so you don’t think there will be a backlash from the more moderate elements of the party?
Musrum
I’m stirring you
kicking the man ,especially whilst down,is even more integral
so where are all the jewish, buddhist and muslim school chaplains? and which christian values are you informed by exactly?
pourvoir: As much as I’m loathe to make predictions these days, I think Abbott will be knifed. Liberals don’t do election loss, and Tone doesn’t have the skills to suit this minority govt situation.
Action on climate change will be back on the agenda, and the coalition with Abbott as leader won’t have a dog in that race. If they want to get the best deal for business they’ll have to be a part of it instead of just opposing everything. For that they will need a new leader.
anomy @ 1783
I think that’s getting a bit too personal.
Hardly, nowhere near as much as it is with Aussie rules.
At least half a day to get back to Mt Isa. Then another half day to get back to Canberra. Why bother for such a truncated weekend?
Can’t for the life of my fathom why Heffernan would be involved in any of the negotiations.
Dr Bogan@1781
I’m stirring you back…
Dr Bogan@1773
I could give you new information, but I’d just be making it up.
About what exactly? They’ve all sat mutely this long and Abbott had led them potentially to victory. He’ll only go if they don’t form government (a big if) and if things dramatically change from now. Otherwise he’s been a very effective leader and he’ll be allowed to stay on.
no, you just dry hump him until the ref’s seen enough of two burly men dressed in silk sleep-wear grinding each other. then you repeat a few times until you meekly hand over the ball to the opposition so they can have a go too. there are a few hopeless tackles without arms involved as well. some good grubber kicks though, you’d get good at them too if you couldn’t just make your opposition come get the ball off you if they can.
I have noticed the effect it has on YOUNG Muslims!.
I couldn’t careless whether Katter goes with Labor or not just as long as the other two do. That’ll do me.
Read this today, and couldnt believe it?
From the OO:
I mean, WTF??
They want to overturn convention in order to advantage the incumbent, probably because they see themselves as the natural party of incumbency.
But in the context of negotiating with the Indies towards a stable govt how does that position help them? Seems that what the ALP have agreed to is actually fairer, particularly if there is like now, a hung parliament.
I’d think that the Indies are going to have to have very clear reasons to hand if they back to Coalition for govt next week, as the whole way through the “negotiations” its been the Coalition who have been the least interested in what they have to say. Now the Coalition wants to take the oportunity to proceeduraly bias matters in their favor?? Tossers.
The way its looking at the moment, if the Indies back Abbott rather than Gillard it would have to be because they fear a backlash in their electorates. But how much would they fear that as against the chance to have 3 years of real power and actually make a difference for once?? I suspect that they are all on the old parliamentry super scheme so they wont be in any serious financial trouble if they lose their seats.
Ive always suggested on here Heffernan would be my choice. He has a strong interest in country Australia, hates the Nationals and is very charming.
Musrum,
how do you get that lovely face icon?
Fair enough, guess I’ll have to make up my own news
Well, I suppose he’s as mad as Katter so they at least have that in common.
then i apologise and retract my statement. there is a big difference between a person who is informed by their personal religion in practice (though members of registered professions/holders of protected titles are held to higher standards) and a chaplaincy which is basically a religious commissar.
I think you truly under estimate the man.
If you want to proselytyze, you don’t get to pick and choose which parts other people pull you up on.
There’s plenty of ways a young person can get spiritual guidance outside of the school setting, or inside the school setting at a religious school if that is their choice.
BK@1767
Maybe so. I regard most Gods as real inasmuch as the idea of their existence lives-in and motivates the minds of human populations. As such I judge each God not only from their own testimony, but also from their worshippers.
“Heffernan … is very charming?”
Triffid I think you’ve finally cracked!
Hey Dr. Bogan, I was quoting ltep! I definitely don’t own those words!
Dr Bogan@1796
Click on your current icon and follow the yellow-brick prompts…
You should see how hard it is to choose not get spiritual guidance in a school of your parents choice.
ltep
Posted Sunday, September 5, 2010 at 4:05 pm | Permalink
There’s plenty of ways a young person can get spiritual guidance outside of the school setting, or inside the school setting at a religious school if that is their choice.
You should see how hard it is to choose not to get spiritual guidance in a school of your parents choice.
Oh right well if it’s Itep it’s to be expected then
Yes privi, but that’s outside of a government’s control.
sprocket_
What is that about?
Which one is the drunken transvestite?
Stagger would be a good way to describe Abbott’s very awkward walking style, but I’m not seeing transvestite.
i think rhys muldoon is calling it for Julia (the drunken trannie) – earlier he said 77-73
Thanks musrum I’ll have a go at my avatar later, but I meant the tongue lolling image on your blog message
Religious study in school is akin to brainwashing. It is not taught as a subject to be challenged or dissected. It is taught as factual.
I remember challenging some ideas in religious instruction as a child and suffering many a sore knuckle from the ruler for daring to ask.
They wanted me to believe in this supreme unprovable, unseen being in the sky but refuted the notion of fairies at the bottom of the garden.
Crook has NOT declared yet. Abbott is still on 72
Just watched Insiders and the last comment from Barry was well under the belt. Have just left a complaint about it and other editing of Abbott’s escapes from Questions. I wonder if anybody else has spent 3-5 minutes doing this ?
Dr Bogan@1814
Like this: :P ->
{Hansonism} Please explain!
Nothing much happening, searched some “twitter stuff” and this made me laugh!
It’s easy for me. i just abuse Diog
Frank, it’s time they made an announcement. A sticking point appears to be the coalition not signing off on parliamentary reforms. I wonder if they have cold feet
I agree with anomy @1798
Sorry Musrum what does P -> stand for do you mean it literally? Technologically limited
RR 1820
Could just imagine Katter in the speakers chair and when they all start yellling at each other, he couldjust put the gun in the air and fire.
Andrew, Fibs could be trying to delay decision so MSM can up play the “lack of stability, this situation is untenable” line to once again try to press for a quick election.
Scarpat@1242
It’s the latter in order to expunge fears of the former, so trembly was I made by Tony’s eloquence.
I wonder if Katter ordered the pork for lunch.
#1755 Bushfire Bill
NOT quite right.
They had promised that their budget would produce a surplus over a period of $11 billion. It seems the surplus may have been only $4 billion (or less).
That’s a different matter to promising something – for which there was no money available, and if provided would cause the budget to go into deficit.
Calling someone “shonky”, by using “shonky” arguments, is NOT a good look.
[Frank, it’s time they made an announcement. A sticking point appears to be the coalition not signing off on parliamentary reforms. I wonder if they have cold feet}
I wonder if the sticking point is, 24hrs notice on a No confidence motion?.
Labor has signed up for reforms but LNP have not according to Albo. They might be chucking in the towel right now if this is the case , one can only hope.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/labor-signs-on-to-parliamentary-reforms-20100905-14vnf.html
Peter Young
Has your dog crapped on your carpet?
Think the coalition’s experiment with the Mad Monk is almost over……..touch wood!!
The unhinged one will have no interest in/or appetite for opposition and is most unlikely to contest a leadership spill once this is all over. He has trashed the coalition’s claim to competent and fiscally responsible govt. and his particularly nasty brand of politics is fatally damaged.
MT will be re-drafted unopposed imho……..and JB will be consigned to the political waste-bin ….and not a moment too soon…..
If the indies go Julia’s way stand by for the synchronised meltdown from the unhinged one and his team of misfits.
BK at 1631 re Collingwood losing the Grand Final by a point.
I was thinking along the lines of a scenario where Collingwood trail by 10 goals at 3/4Q time , fight back with the msm( I mean umpires ) awarding them 35 consecutive free kicks, hit the front, the siren goes as the ball is bounced, but the interchange flag has gone up, free kick and 50m penalty to Fremantle, goal Fremantle. Perfect allegory for the last few months.
Only flaw is that Fremantle and Collingwood will meet in the Prelim Final.
That’s it I reckon. Abbott believes he can’t win so is not agreeing to the reform after all a disruptive house is what they have specialised in over the last 3 years.
It’s probably a Tory brawl over who would be speaker under the new rules and could Rabbott appoint the Member for Wentworth as Speaker thereby barring him from taking part in the political process for evermore?
Leon @ 1836
A dream worth dreaming!
No. Sloppy wants the right to have cardboard cutouts in the House.
From Grog – I wonder if this is what the Libs are not willing to agree with it ?
That’s a very interesting idea. The Speaker would be excluded from party room meetings which would prevent Turnbull from leaking against the leader (whoever that might be) and stifle and opportunity to rekindle his leadership ambitions.
T would refuse the Speaker gig if it was offered.
Much preferable to and more relevant than the Lord’s Payer.
Surely not!
Yeah the acknowledgment of country thing will have certain Liberal Party members foaming at the mouth.
to ask a rudd-esque rhetorical question, why do surpluses matter so much? if bigger surpluses equal better county then we could de-fund every single govt. service and have the best country in the world, right?
how an arbitrarily chosen accounting result has become an indicator that governments live or die by is not only the fault of the media. it’s also partly the fault of clueless know-nothings who think they know how a national budget should work while the shuffle piles of debt from credit card to credit card and move money sideways on the stock market.
If it means dropping the lords prayer, I’m all for that!.
They’d retain the LP even if an acknowledgment of country was introduced. I like your Freudian slip of Lord’s Payer.
testing
From my reading the prayer is not being dropped. The acknowledgment is just to happen before the prayer.
1934pc@1847
Yes……I’ve never understood why a secular parliament in a secular country should feel the need to recite the Lord’s prayer.
Get rid of all forms of religion in our govt.
What happened to TA agreeing to everything and anything to get into power. Does this mean he doesn’t have the numbers and has given up?
On school chaplains – from psychologists:
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/kids-need-more-healers-not-chaplains-psychologist-group-20100814-123rd.html?rand=1281838582751
and a blog:
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/maralynparker/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/public_schools_do_not_need_christian_chaplains/
Dr Bogan@1825
Do this: :P
Get this:
Your probably right as well why provide a speaker if you can weaken the other side and why be limited to a 30 sec relevent question when you can use televised QT to attack the opposition.
cheers
and one of the issues:
“Chaplains go on excursions and on school camps, so if you want your children to have no exposure to the chaplain, you’ve ‘volunteered’ for them not to go to the museum or the bush camp,” he said.?“At schools where chaplains coach sports, the only option is for your child to miss out on those particular sports. It’s not volunteering at all. You don’t volunteer to not do something.”
from:
http://www.starobserver.com.au/news/2010/03/31/court-to-rule-on-religious-schooling/23447
Dr Bogan
Try this page for emoticons.
http://tiny.cc/e5hm2
Dr Bogan
type : followed by P gives you
type : followed by ) gives you
type : followed by ( gives you
type : followed by o gives you
type : followed by lol: gives you
You know this might just be Bronnie’s best chance at finally becoming Speaker if Labor form govt. She’d have eschew her place on the oppn front bench, as well as not attending Liberal and coalition meetings, but I reckon she’d jump at the chance.
Does anybody know by which parliamentary process the rules (standing orders, etc) get changed and in particular does there only need to be a simple majority on the floor of the House?
testing
Hopeful that TRabbit will be :’( tomorrow
or :@
Confessions
Could never see this happening. She hates Julia, very vindictive comments are the norm for her. Called her the member for David JOnes when she a black and white coat and is very spiteful towards her. Can’t see Julia allowing this.
[You know this might just be Bronnie’s best chance at finally becoming Speaker if Labor form govt. She’d have eschew her place on the oppn front bench, as well as not attending Liberal and coalition meetings, but I reckon she’d jump at the chance.
Any Lib who took on the job from opposition would be well advised to stay away from the party room. They might find their cucumber sarnies have been poisoned.
confessions
having worked (without choice) for the woman I can say you sadly misunderstand bronnie
The woman is a true Conservative – she would rather die than be beholdig to godless communists (her name for the ALP).
Dr B
OK only some emoticons will work on this site. Keep it simple.
Would Bronnie be any good as a Speaker? She certainly likes to show off her knowledge with points of order, but then so did Tuckey and I reckon he’d be a lousy speaker.
It is my understanding the libs automatically have a spill after an election loss.
But I think abbott will survive for a while anyway. It could be the only way to get mesma out of the deputy leaders job, but then again WA voters would not like that and there could be another election well before 2013 even with the current best intentions of labor and the indi’s. Lets face it, a range of unknown events could bring on a return to the polls before 2013.
Attack dog Abbott will be an asset to the libs when they lose tomorrow (which they will) and remain in opposition. They will never accept they lost and newscorp will recommence campaigning for a new election immediately.
The false theme will be the gillard government is illegitimate and every minor slip will be akin to the earth slipping off its axis. No credit will be given to things done well. But Labor will not take this shit like they did for the last three years.
Abbott will still be very vunerable as his weaknesses will not be able to be hidden as time goes on. Hockey will need to be moved and robb as well.
Labor has to maintain discipline to survive and gillard is going to have to drum this into the partyroom.
Ok, so Bronnie’s out.
Who else then?
BK
Motion in the House to amend the House Standing Orders (samd in szenate for senate SO).
Simple majority needed.
Only times absolute majority neede din the parliament at the moment are:
1) third reading of bill to amend constitution (in the conmsitition)
2) motion without notice to suspend standing orders in the standong orders)
Thanks, Punna.
The person(s) to introduce the cutting of the LP from Parliament would have to be a well-respected, probably religion-trained background person or group or seriously argued for the separation of church and state. Someone like Julia couldn’t do it because there would be hisses of satan influence
Abbott will survive because the next leader of the opposition will not leas them to the next election and so no real candidate will nominate.
Thanks VP. So even if the unhinged one disagrees with the proposal the indies have made and Julia agreed the 76 or 77 could introduce the changes under their own steam?
Re the Lords prayer remember that the conservatives were so in favour of it they mad eone labour speake read it every day even though he was an avowed atheist.
even refuses his suggestion that a haplin read it instread.
ABbott’s done more than enoug to sty in the job. I cant see the Libs dumping him in case the whole minority thing goes belly up for Gillard.
If it lasts until next July – and I expect it will – Tony will probably be marched into history at that point (or 10 mins after a carbon trading scheme starts, whichever is earlier).
Thanks Musrum & VP for all thos face controls just love you people teaching me all these tricks!
Oh dear, can’t they move on. That’s so 1950s
BK only some of them. Some of them are based on consent (e.g. The ‘paired’ Speaker and Deputy Speaker, the fact that they will not attend party room meetings and generally anything to do with pairing). Others such as reference of all bills to committees can already be done and no procedural changes would be required.
The acknowledgment of country would require a majority of the House voting for it.
ltep
So it looks like it’s a “you’ve gotta be in it to win it situation for Abbott”?
Not restricted to the Coalition. Rudd didn’t support it, nor did the President of the Senate, John Hogg.
Dogma you’re not calling me emotional are you?
Why not wait afew weeks before recalling Parliament, wait for the Tory Crucifixion of Tony, and offer the speakers role to him?
It’s well paid, will certainly help with his mortgage, and he’ll be so p’d off with the ungrateful Libs that he’ll accept it.
Double payout to the Libs and MSM, and problem solved? :lol
Abbott’s just trying to string Oakeshott along. He did it with Wilkie too (failing to respond in a timely manner). It’s a stalling tactic and completely goes against the notions of good faith bargaining.
It looks like the sticking point for the coalition is the Speaker. They want a speaker who isn’t from govt, but the indies plan allows for one to be drawn from the government.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/squabble-breaks-out-over-parliamentary-reform-20100905-14vtx.html
Dr Bogan
If you copy an emotion then paste it into Notepad you will see which characters are involved.
The full quote of that insult is
* godless communists, and when they are not godless they are catholic AND Irish to boot*
Not that the libs can talk about catholics, these days catholics run the liberal party.
Thanks Tom
The new member for Chifley, Ed Husic is not a great attender at the mosque so he says but will he be entitled to a Qu’ran during the big Bible hand-out and will he have to lump it during the LP like the atheists?
http://northcoastvoices.blogspot.com/2010/09/coalition-frenzy-peaks-on-twitter-with.html
Have a look from a Qld young LNP called Matthew Quinlan who thinks that now the election is over he can twitter remarks made in the above link. Warning NSFW
He is being investigated by ABC but their asking if he’s a Labor plant?
Unbelieveable.
Given the ridiculously-biased behaviour of their last Speaker, Hawker, they are the last ones who should be moralising about the matter.
Angry Katter on Ten News saying his lunch time conversation was about ethanol.
BTW I think Rudd has yet to play his hand. I can see him quitting in 6 months for a high level UN position, once it becomes clear he has no power in the Labor party any more. For a man who loves his party, he sure was happy on election night.
ltep went -
No. Abbott has known he has lost for days now. He doesn’t want to *give* anything to Oakeshott on parliamentary reform but can’t say so directly. But the indi’s will know this too.
It will not change the overall outcome.
Stormy cloud
What lunch time conversation?
voice o ftruth
Give it up TTH.
What on earth is “acknowledgement of country” FFS? Sounds like a bit of creeping jingoism to me, borrowed from the mighty US of A.
No ignorant and exclusive religious nonsense and no nationalistic drum beating thanks. Parliament should be secular, objective and rational.
fulv
do keep up
apparantly the mad hatter wnet to Rabbotts Cos and the Heiferman
they talked of ethanol and how best not to inhale
He was Hut to lunch with Hefferman, but Katter bolted out the rear door when the cameras arrived.
It is secular to acknowledge that we are not the first people
Hut = out
Truthy, the old we will win when Rudd falls theory. It is a bit of a longshot to wait for that one to save your sorry hides.
1896 acknowledgement of country would be acknowledgement of Aboriginal traditional owners?
So, is the Katter out of the bag?
SNIP: See below – The Management.
You mean the aerial Ping Pong can be exciting? So Swannie, go.
Sorry Gus, father’s day, trip to the Serpentime dam, and all that. Hard to keep up.
Metazan, if the lunch was with the Hef, was the conversation ABOUT ethanol, or FUELED BY ethanol?
JV
uppercut time
AoC is the aboriginal appreciation for being thje original owners
And goodnight Carlton!
I think VP would tell us it never stopped
No, ethanol was just an unfortunate gassy by-product.
So let me get this right.. The indpendents want an independent speaker, but none of them want the job?
Ah it’s the first people thing. I think a bit of fair dinkum indigenous health commitment would mean a lot more than a repetitive daily mantra that loses it’s meaning over time. Shallow Anglo feel-good tripe, if that’s what such an acknowledgement means.
New for all you sports fans – sport sucks! Especially competitive sports. And especially those played on a waste of a good paddock. There
new=now
jaundiced view
How did you get your user name?
Gusface
There’s no power in your punches for a while anyway after your re-bore. Hope normal progamming will soon resume.
bh will be happy, i like to see the sydney swans get for the final
According to the draft, the acknowledgement of country would come before prayers. It won’t replace them.
Metarzan
Is there a Youjane about the place?
Pity, it was a chance for improvement that was missed.
I will never forget the cherry on top of the cake of my contempt for JWH when he said during the republic referendum debacle “I think the atheists will give us this one” on the mention of God in the proposed constitution.
Abbott to the rescue. Just flown into Canberra on Channel 10 news. Wonder if he’s brought his boatphone.
George, you know perfectly well what the rules are here, and you knew perfectly well you were breaking them in #1904 – and worse, you made a conscious effort to evade the mechanism I have in place to see they are observed. If this is the what I can expect from you, obviously the only way I can ensure your comments are consistent with the rules is to put you in moderation, which is what I will do the next time it happens.
Vernula P
Well, as long as it doesn’t take long every bloody morning.
William. I can’t argue with that. So agree – my only defence is two bottles of winee – i hang my head in shame/
Did my Swannies win? Not on telly here until 7pm tonight – I can take the bad news if they didn’t but the head bashing will hurt.
Was that a Freudian slip or simply a piggish keyboard?
The unhinged one is back in Canberra flushed in success having found a source for his key election plank.
http://caribcollection.free.fr/BVIpix/bv3.jpg
You betcha!
BH
Watch it!
It appears the document calls for a speaker from either party but the speaker must be paired from the other side.
Pyne wants the speaker from drawn from opposition ….. It looks like they have accepted their fate and are trying to grab any advantage they can.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/09/04/newspoll-alp-favoured-for-government-47-39/comment-page-39/#comments
Is there a presser organised for tomorrow?
Thanks RodH – life’s a bummer for a few hours after they lose a big one. Onward to Victory with Julia and Labor too (I hope).
I wonder if it is looking more than likely that the Indies will fence sit?
Cud Chewer, what are these uncompetitive sports with which you don’t have such a problem?
I’ve been looking, but it’s hard to find a Youjane here amongst all these chimps!!
Just a personal comment about chaplains in schools. My parent’s came from different backgrounds and when they married they decided not to raise their children in any religious tradition. So when all the other kids got to sit and be preached to, I got to sit in the library and read books.
One day, I found myself in a classroom at the end of recess and I got caught out with the other kids sitting around me. The chaplain soon arrived and wasted no time going into his spiel. I cannot remember the exact words, but it made me feel like someone was trying to get into my head and mess with my mind. I quickly exited but to this day I remember the feeling of violation.
Today I was telling a friend from QLD about this and he said when he went to school he wasn’t given a choice – merely asked which religion he was in. And when I mentioned my feelings to him he said “Yes, you’ve nailed it – the feeling of violation”.
In the US the Christians are now infiltrating the psychology profession – deeply. So if you’re unlucky and you’re a gay teenager and you find yourself with the wrong “shrink” chances are you’re sh*t outa luck. The same people are trying to push religious values and “morals” into the Australian psychological profession. Be afraid.. be very afraid.
As I said once before – religious indoctrination – instilling a belief system backed by fear and shame – is child abuse. Believing in pink unicorns is one thing. Being indoctrinated into an edifice of ideas – a virus of the mind – can only be sustained by harmful and deeply rooted fear. And in forcing people to think in logic tight compartments in order that their mind cannot fight off the virus, you also damage their ability to think critically and cogently.
1889 dogma
Posted Sunday, September 5, 2010 at 5:11 pm | Permalink
http://northcoastvoices.blogspot.com/2010/09/coalition-frenzy-peaks-on-twitter-with.html
these people dont know much about us labor people do they, to think that we dont have drive and all live on welfare, we are just as successful in business as many liberals and many labor people are in top of their profession.
Cannot beleive thats what they think.
Neither of the main parties want to provide a Speaker if the other side is in Government because it will cost them a number on the floor of the House and make the other side more secure.
I guess the Indies don’t have to commit to either side – just wait for the first no-confidence motion.
My understanding is that the Speaker will come from Govt. the Deputy Speaker from the Opposition.
They will be “paired” and not sit in their respective party rooms. This removes the one vote disadvantage of forming Govt.
Pyne of course wants the Speaker from Opposition as it strengthens the Libs position if they scrape in.
William – anything that doesn’t involve having to compete. Trust me, as someone who was routinely victimised at school for being nearly blind (and having teachers that supported the bullies) I have some pretty bad memories about “sport”.
One thing that strikes me when I travel, and return to the country, is just how sports obsessed we are. And we have a culture that makes heroes of sports people and worships them with endless television, while real heroes in (say) science and engineering go almost without notice.
never felt like that and still dont.
JV
a rebore is tres wrong, but anyways
with you,why waste punch?
sheepdip is more suited to you
@1931 thanks.. is there a link for all these documents?
cud chewer @1936
yep, yep and yep.
Frog. Slowly heating water.
Labor will as the document calls for pairing with the reserve speaker opposition not getting a vote as well.
+1 on that cud – couldn’t agree with more with that statement.
If they don’t get in then one of their members gets a well paid position, so it’s a win win for them
. So much for Abbott’s kinder and gentler polity.
Why would you want an opposition speaker if you can pair the speaker.
If Abbott and his team win I shall rely on this group to keep me sane.
@ ITEP
So they have given up then havn’t they ?
Sometimes when I need a laugh, I wander through Bolt’s blog to check out what the morons there have to say. Dave is really at the lowest end of spectrum and comes up with this classic in an exchange with Big Ted (who is quite funny).
Dave-
Big Ted
Dave
Go Bunnies.
Put Tone’s Manly out of their misery.
It seems the Liberal gameplan now relies on Rudd resigning early – they win Griffith and Australia is saved.The gospel according to Truthy.
Is everyone still counting the chickens before they’ve hatched?
Never a truer word spoken, cudchewer. I love watching my favourites but it galls me that ‘celebrities’ are more important than those who make enormous contributions to society in other fields. They might be well known and appreciated in their field but they should be shining from every media spot in the land as well.
No we’re past counting chickens -now it’s cygnets.
Lots of interesting material on Insiders this morning, particularly for critics of The Australian. Didn’t necessarily agree with the following, but it caught by attention:
Souths need to win by 3 or more to make finals and saints have rested players , if they lose they play Souths again next week at Kogarah
Lifelong Bunnies supporter here
Someone please stick Cassidy’s head in a blender..
Looks like it has already been there
lol.. I was hoping someone would say that
So, Cassidy appears to be a partisan? Or just a know-all?
Not interested in NLR one bit, why because it is run by possibly corrupt people,
News Limited Rugby that is.
I think the independents will support the Fibs. This dragging on approach does not bode well for Labor.
“I think the independents will support the Fibs. This dragging on approach does not bode well for Labor.”
Don’t agree, I think they have different views and their reliance on each other is slowing down a decision. Oakeshott wants Labor, but isn’t daring to back them without the other two. It would be political suicide. Windsor is genuinely trying to decide, and weighing the other two. And Katter is coalition but would go Labor with good enough deals/rationale.
Just accepting facts that almost anyone objective can see.
I disagree marky marky – I think the Indies were going to back Labor all along and they wanted ample time to a) show they were prepared to take their time and let the process run its course and b) allow the Libs to be shown up with many holes (as they have been: costings, bullying, etc)
You’re probably anxious. The result is not far off and JG will remain PM.
Marky I have previously said Abbott’s to lose. But I suspect he IS losing.
The dragging out is to get parliamentary reforms – which it appears the COALITION are holding out on. I believe THEY are trying to drag this out to give time to sway the indies.
This may backfire.
ltep: There can be no “fact” now. All of these are contrafactuals, that is, impossibilities. No-one will ever know. Therefore, we can happily argue forever!
LTEP, I’m no fan of Kevin Rudd, but I don’t see how either you or Cassidy can say that, given the polls were certainly no worse than 50-50 for Labor at the time. Any conjecture about what might have happened to make the situation worse if Rudd had stayed PM is just that.
I think he’ll have made up his mind by now. Tomorrow is just the day they’ll sign up with one side or the other and announce.
Again with the piling onto any commentator that says anything not wholeheartedly pro-ALP. Completely agree with Barrie Cassidy that with Rudd ALP would have lost (although I disagree with “absolutely decisively”). Its pretty clear from ALP actions that they knew this as well, and given the deflated Opposition after the assassination, you get the impression Lib polling was saying they would win with Rudd as well!
A little note that may be of interest to the partisan bloggers here: Cassidy once worked for the ALP (just like Kerry O’Brien if I am not mistaken and lets not even mention Maxine…). When you are criticising David Marr as you dont think he is left win enough, I think that says it all about all this media bias stuff!
And …. Climate Elephant was last seen swirling down a costings black hole – now occupying a large portion of the room.
Peter and William, you’re both right and I withdraw. Cassidy may have had evidence for his assertions though. Mine is just an opinion.
The only question though William is, was Rudd going to go to an election at around the same time Gillard went? Was that time frame already set in stone regardless of who was leading the Labor party?
The Indies delay woudl also be explained by their wanting to prepare their electorates, who all agree are conservative, for the possibility they might back Labor. If the Indies just wanted to support the coalition, they would have announced it as soon as they got what they wanted. They have the balance of power either way; there was no reason to delay once that position was known, and they had received their offers frfrom both sides.
The point of this post is nto to say that I KNOW which way they will go. None of us know. But I certainly don’t see how delay increases the likelihood of what would have been the easier decision for them anyway.
Rudd had to back down on the mining tax and it would have been humiliating, destroying any credibility he had. Rudd is not good at selling a losing message. His anger and controlling nature come out, which voters hate.
The deal about giving him a couple of months to turn things around was the sensible course. They could have had him clear the decks and then replace him. Arbib et al made a huge mistake in acting so rashly. There is no other analysis possible given how hated Abbott is.
Truthy
What then would you call the last 10,000 or so posts on this blog,
George, I think it’s pretty well established that an election under Rudd would have been in October.
Just found out that News Ltd owns Delicious and Gardening Australia magazines among others.
That may explain a certain nervousness for some at the ABC to criticize Rupe’s anointed.
If the media continue to say that Katter will back the Coalition, he will back Labor just to prove them wrong.
William: And we would have had great economic data, and outsize mining profits.
Coulda/woulda made it interesting.
Sir Oftswing 1970
I agree. IMO Labor badly lost the campaign period, but the Liberals have lost the negotiating perido since the election.
Even if the Indies sided with the coalition now, there would be a lot of awkward moments for an Abbott government with the budget black hole, undeliberable promises, and a very hostile Senate from July 1.
Peter, they already had great economic data, but as has so often been pointed out, the guiding principle of Labor strategy was to avoid drawing attention to the fact.
sprocket_ back at 1810
Assume this is a reference to the Rocky Horror Show ads? Or is it something else perhaps?
When I woke up this morning, I had this thought.
We have been hearing a lot from the Coalition about how this would be “the most left-wing government since the Second World War”, et al. So it made me think, what would the most right wing opposition in Australia ever do if Labor became a minority government?
Tony rings Angus Houston and says, “Angus, get the tanks out on the streets, and I want the SAS to storm Parliament House, and I don’t care if they are overseas, this is an emergency! Put Gillard, Swan and Rudd in gaol, and put the independents under house arrest. We will, umm, err, arr, govern.”
Angus says, “But Tony, this is a democracy, we can’t do things like that here!”
Tony says, “But arr, erm, arr, Angus, remember the aircraft carrier you guys have always wanted? How would you like three? And as many tanks and troops as you can get your hands on?”
Angus then asks, “But Tony, is this going to be Hobart Hospital all over again? I mean, how are you going to pay for it all?”
Tony says, “Don’t worry, we will use our ‘costings experts’ to sort that out, and any way we will get a windfall when we invade New Zealand next week, and that will be a great chance for you guys to pull your weight.”
Y’know, I think Tony might just be desperate enough.
word of the day!
I’ve been a Manly supporter (Bombers in the AFL though) since I was at high school, in the days when Bobby Fulton was the new 5/8 and Bob Batty was full-back, but I must confess that I don’t mind seeing them go down today after watching Abbott dolling out dough to them in his final fling of pork throwing to them before the election (carefully timed to miss the news that night and risk the wrath of west Sydney, I noticed!)
Ruawake @ 1953
It was great watching Tony Burke’s Canterbury defeat Abbott’s Manly.
A very close run match with the Doggies snatching victory from the jaws of defeat.
Maybe it’s a good omen ?
Doesn’t Oakeshott know that the Coalition have a history of reneging on deals (the CPRS).
Before I forget: which prominent Bludger referred to the Mighty Green Machine the other day as the Canberra Faders?
we cancelled the gardening aust. sub. along time ago now, and of course the show is not what it was it was so bad last year i wrote to them, no reply of course
Nothing comes up to the standard of Peters Vegie patch.
I am not saying this because i am a Tasmanian but the show is not what it use to be since it left our shores.
I am wondering if the next show to go from here will be the collectors.
the abc also do not have the good programes they use to have. Spooks, Silent witness ,. Robson Green drama’s and many more i am starting to forget, they told us that Doc Martin would be new episodes and the first 7 of course where old,
Mid somner Murders mainly repeats Miss Marple repeats.
I would love to see a senate committee set up to see just what they spend on what these days.
Sydney won by 5
Midsomer Murders starts again tonight.
o it just occurred to me tone comes from sydney was not thinking of that by the way
brandt, wilkie plus 3 you never know.
Senate Estimates is the proper venue for this. You can always write to your local senators and ask them to raise such matters.
Rox,
A very good gardening show. They’re always planting bodies.
That Midsmmer area must be the most violent place in the world.
Oakshott is in an unenviable position. The youngest of the three, he has a long parliamentary career and a young family to consider. This guy is SERIOUS about his politics. The last thing he’ll want is to be looking for another job after the next election comes around and his vote goes south.
If Julia has any sense she will have taken Oaky aside and had a quiet chat. “Look, Mr O, I know you’ve got concerns about your seat. Be aware, a safe labor seat is yours for the asking if your constituents turf you out.” Or words to that effect.
Of course not in that blatant way. A nod would be as good as a wink in this situation.
Greensborough Growler@2000
I thought Mt Thomas (Blue Heelers) was the crime capital ?
Doh, stupid fingers! Well I’m glad you enjoyed it Punna
I may be mistaken but i think they said the last lot where new episodes
But we could both remember every one of them they where about 18 months old
I wonder if there abc thinks their audience is getting so old we all may have alzheimer’s .
O course if they keep this up they want have an audience at all.
My daughter made the comment the other day that she thought abc 3 the children s channel would have more of an audience than abc 24
GG
Think of the blood and bone!
i had to laugh my oh says that at the beginning of every episode,
it occurred to me with the repeats they are murdering the same people over and over again.
This presumes it will. It’s not a foregone conclusion.
Note that both Carlton(John Elliot) & Hawthorn(Jeff Kennett) have High Profile Libs as either a current or former President, and both teams got elimibated in their respecticve funals games.
not a good sign for the Rabbott
Frank
It was funny that when the siren went I yelled, “Take that, Elliot!”
Dedalus – you keep saying that but it just shows you do not know anything about him
On the contrary I think straight up and honest dealing has been/is the winner this time even if only this time.
Just trying to put myself in shoes of the Indies. All are ex-NP and it appears that there is no love lost between them and the NP. All attract a personal following which would suggest that their followers are also not enamoured of the NP. Therefore it would seem that the majority of their supporters would stick by them no matter what decision they took. So, self interest would not seem to be a determining factor in their decision. They seem to be genuinely wanting to do the best for the country as a whole.
Reasons why they would support Abbott: Katter says he is anti mining tax, but has said that if it only applies to iron and coal then he might be in favour; Katter says he is anti-carbon tax, but is keen to reap benefits of ethanol and power corridor which is Labor policy. I admit my bias but I can’t honestly think of any other reason to support Abbott.
Reasons to support Gillard: All support the NBN; two are Climate Change believers; Abbott’s costings have been shown to be rubbish, and that he, Hockey and Robb tried to lie their way into power; Gillard with 77 support is in a less vulnerable position than Abbott with 76, one of whom will not sit with Coalition; Gillard would be more likely to find common ground with a Green controlled Senate leading to better stability.
Seems like a no-brainer to me. All they have to say is that they will not support a reckless vote of no confidence nor will they vote to deny supply. Then let the necessary procedures follow regarding testing the confidence of the government in parliament.
How does Oakshott lose Lyne if he backs Labor? Not going to happen. The seat is his until he decides to retire.
ruawake – you, me and Antony Green all agree on that one
Socrates
I thought “undeliberable” summed up Tony Abbott in six magic syllables
Frank @ 2008
(Note that both Carlton(John Elliot) & Hawthorn(Jeff Kennett) have High Profile Libs as either a current or former President, and both teams got elimibated in their respecticve funals games.
not a good sign for the Rabbott )
And Collingwood president Eddie Everywhere – though he tries to hide it – is Labor
Am I mistaken or is there a rash of desperate young Fibs floating around this evening? What has happened since 5 pm I’ve been talking to my Dad (ex-union rep)
my thinking is if you went with the tone team you would get nothing
they dont have any funds.
the 11 b black hole and now then the RHH hospital 1 b,
so nothing for any ones electorate and no NBN, sounds very silly to me.
think of the opposite side i dont have to write it here you all know,
I wonder if the Libs holding out for the parliamentry reforms are an attempt to bribe the IND’s into supporting them.
My say @2006, disappointed with you. How can you joke about others people’s tragedies? I thought we left this for the Tories!! Hehehe.
the people of lyne would be happy to hear that M,.Wilkie has ask for health money for all areas. Not sure how this was worked out but i seem to remember something about money being freed up for other hospitalss???
Likewise, BK!
Ah, it would be nice to get a real result, though, rather than sitting around reading the football equivalent of chicken entrails, eh!
Katter just had dinner with Abbott’s chief of staff for what it’s worth (potentially nothing).
Marky boy come on your goose is cooked!
the difference is ours is fiction
theirs may be fact. No nbn NO pbs or little left of it.
HECS out with them we dont want the less fortunate to be educated
off with their heads i say.
Hmm he had lunch with him today as well
Hi VP, Dogma & Triff & all I’m back for a while, what happened since 5 pm?
lunch AND dinner
must not have had time for a doggy bag before running from the cameras.
OC 2010 – I read his bio, checked out his website, read some of his speeches, noted his committee work. What in particular do you think is wrong with my reading of his upcoming decision? Be specific or forever hold your tongue.
Typical Tory, get the staff to do the job.
Katter’s just getting the perks of free meals of pork
So Katter’s gone Coalition then most likely. Now for the other two.
zoomster 7:39 am
Best of luck, Zoomster. (You should bottle all that water, you could sell it to us in SA in the Summer.)
Didn’t they say they’d vote as a block?
Katter may have breakfast with JG’s CoS.
Where’s he sleeping?
may be it was all the same one big long lunch.
I think this got lost in the media translation.
may be he had lunch some one twitted to a twitt he had been see eating with ?
and well that turned in to dinner as well.
And as it is not 7 yet may be it was afternoon tea or high tea or may be a long brunch.
you know you never know how these things end up.
That would be a very Tory way, we would typically take them into the woods and shoot em. Less mess.
No.
Unless he is having breakfast with Kev
The fourth pod on Port Macquarie Hospital is a short price favourite. I should add that this hospital was highly politicised when the Nationals sold it to a private hospital company and Labor spent a fortune getting it back. The hospital and the Glasshouse entertainment centre fiasco have seriously damaged Brand National in Lyne
Alternatively Katter using last chance for freebies at Liberal expense.
Windsor just said that they might not necessarily go as a block.
i don’t think Eddie tries to hides his leanings too much – who knows, he may be a celebrity candidate one day
also, just on a earlier retweeted reference to “drunken transvestite staggering in”, this is actually referring to the ALP just getting over the line – somewhat dishevelled, lots of reason to disown.
Further to Oakshott’s dilemma. It IS a dilemma. The guy’s clearly the most progressive of the three. He’d not be out of place in the Labor caucus. I agree that leftwards is his heartfelt inclination in this. But his age and ambition ensure that he has the most to lose from any electorate backlash. That is the point. Maybe the only point.
Abbott’s CoS is Peta Credlin, wife of Brian Loughnane. She is probably applying for a new job for hubby.
The mad hatter is “getting into bed” with JG for the night
If anyone’s still interested, Labor leads in Corangamite by 765 with only a few dozen votes not accounted for.
itep stop reading things in to things’
u must do something about your negative thoughts, really i mean it.
you must make yourself very miserable.
We all feel the same and worry about the out come but dont express it.
But i am feeling good about it because as i said.
who would go with loosers, re no money left in kitty for any one.
no NBN no good health system, the bur to stop no computers in school to be updated.
The HECS places cut.
if i was in the electorate of the three i would have their g for garters if they represented me and went with B team
What’s the latest on the Senate William?
and I thought it was Chris Mitchell.
Has Fielding lost?
there you go another message of goodwill
I thought Tone’s chief of staff is a woman? Perhaps I’m thinking of someone else.
Lacoon 1987
I think that tweet was connected with this one.
Dr Bogan
I see you’ve perfected the art of smiley. Well done. As to what has happened since 5pm, I honestly couldn’t tell you. I’ve been away, but I would hazard a guess that unless we don’t see anything being reported tonight on twitter, then we’ll have to wait until tomorrow.
Must say though ppl are getting quite upset with the wait.
Chris Mitchell is his writer and producer.
As long as he doesnt get Jules pregnant and she had to take maternity leave. who will run the country then?
Re Katter having lunch with Heffernan. Get real, people. Stop orgasming on this fluff. This trivia. This background chatter. You are a bunch of weak-kneed nellies to be talking about this shit. Stick to the real issues if you want to get into the predicting business.
If the Coalition have to rely on Bob Katter (and they will because they need him to get to 76 seats), they will be in trouble.
At least the ALP can get to 77 seats!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUQM40u4bdk
Ah, yes.
dedalus
Bad Father’s Day for you?
dedalus,
Like organising secret deals to secure Oakshott’s vote.
Puff
I’m busy hiding water under the bed, to confirm the suspicions voiced by SA people (not looking at anyone, Diog!) over the years…
Of course, I intend to waste it, as is the wont of Victorians.
I was actually going to post something more relevant to the discussion, but I’ve been distracted now and will have to go away again until I remember what it was!
from Twitter:
I reckon Katter will sit it out else there will be a lot of peeved people up there if he goes Labor, having spoken to a few of them today. None of them could say who else they would vote for mind, certainly not Barney’s mob.
No, lunch and dinner with Abbott’s chief of staff on the day before he is announcing his decision.
Dang it! looks like my calculation of a win for Labor there by 500 is going to be way out! Wish I’d been closer with Brisbane, though.
Katter having dinner with Abbotts COS is just their last attempt to persuade him to come with them IMO. They know Windsor and Oak are gone they are just trying to get Katter back.
Two points;
1. Yes the local nationals have a born to rule mentality that comes out when they say the seat is theirs but the demography is changing and per #2040 their brand is damaged – it will be a long time before Lyne is labor but it is no longer a certainty for the conservatives and Oakeshott’s very successful performance as a local member reinforces this. The electorate is different from PB -it is not full of 2 dimensional ideologues but will support a good local member who can get results – when you compare Oakeshott to Vaile and some of the Nat’s woeful candidates – the choice becomes easy. I should also say that those who vote for Oakeshott have a fairly good idea that he is a small l liberal
2. He has much more integrity than you credit him with. My personal opinion is that he is actually getting a little bored with politics and missing family life. The current imbroglio may revive his spirits for a while.
Of course if he supports Gillard and it turns into a disaster – I may change my opinion.
Perhaps Katter just calls Sunday lunch dinner, like many country folk??
[spur212
Posted Sunday, September 5, 2010 at 7:05 pm | Permalink
If the Coalition have to rely on Bob Katter (and they will because they need him to get to 76 seats), they will be in trouble.
At least the ALP can get to 77 seats!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUQM40u4bdk
what was that all about, and why was some one going to die who was he going crook at,
What maternity allowance will she get – Tone to give her $75K?
Bob Hawke described Tony Abbott as being as mad as a cut snake.
Bob Katter actually IS as mad as a cut snake.
I wouldn’t read too much into him having lunch and dinner with Bill Heffernan, just like I wouldn’t read too much into him having dinner with Kevin Rudd last week.
It wasn’t really that relevant after all!
What mystifies me about the Midsomer Murders thing is that, despite them all happening in the same locality, noone seems to have noticed them.
You don’t get any of the characters saying, for example: “Ah yes, you’re the policeman who investigated Jimmy Bates’ murder last summer.” or “When my Aunt Gladys was murdered….”
Obviously no one reads the local paper.
Darren L
Hmm, yes, I remember as rural kids the mealtimes were called breakfast, dinner and tea.
An aquaintance of mine recently told me this, which had me rolling around laughing.
When people go to uni they are idealistic & naturally fall to the left but once they leave uni they all go with the Liberals. His arguement was that anyone with a good education who are able to understand policy, economics, business etc will always go with the right. It is only those who are ignorant & uneducated that stay with the left well into adulthood.
we call the evening meal Tea when we eat at home, Dinner when we go out,
dinner when we have friends over and we eat after 7.30, which really is quite correct if you like to research it.
and my parents always said dinner time ( meaning lunch time)
Its very english and also very Cornish.
my say, That clip of Katter from last year scared the living daylights out of me!
now think if all pv was from every one who left uni.
Except he was spotted by the media at lunchtime, and scarpered when he saw them.
What’s not pointed out amongst all this is supposedly Katter also held meetings with ALP figures too.
My current take is that Katter is leaning Coalition, Oakeshott Labor and they’ve got an agreement that whichever way Windsor goes they’ll all go.
Will be glad when this is all over :p
The thing I love about midsomer is every episode introduces a new set of evil, scheming, weird, wacky, vengeful people. The town’s a freakshow!
“If you are not a socialist at 20 you have no heart, if your not a capitalist at 30 you have no brain” is the quote you’re looking for Dee
[What mystifies me about the Midsomer Murders thing is that, despite them all happening in the same locality, noone seems to have noticed them.
You don’t get any of the characters saying, for example: “Ah yes, you’re the policeman who investigated Jimmy Bates’ murder last summer.” or “When my Aunt Gladys was murdered….”
Obviously no one reads the local paper].
]
perhaps they dont like the publisher
and it must mystify the abc even more because they think they are buying brand new episodes.
What they showed on the news suggested he was just sick of the media and that he was rushing off to attend a meeting with the Government.
When and where? Any today?
or he didn’t want to pay his share of the bill.
ltep went -
garbage as usual ltep
i think its because the main meal for a farmer that is the largest meal is at lunch time
the midday ,meal
dave,
Having BOP means never having to pay for lunch.
He is living proof of the fault in his theory, not sure if he is educated but he sure is ignorant.
@2080 – O for Labor, K for Libs, W abstain – is still a (bare) Labor victory.
with out mentiong names like others we know
It was reported he’d dined with Rudd on at least one occasion. And presumably dinner is the opportunity to finish whatever was abruptly interrupted at lunch.
My guess is that O and W are leaning Labor, and Katter is genuinely undecided.
my say
Someone on the ABC comment thread said that Midsomer was actually a very large regional area in England with lots of towns, so there could be lots of murders.
I just love the scenery.
“Wilkie speak”: Agree to this, this and this before I consider supporting u on grounds of what is best for community, morality etc yadda yadda. Well u agreed but I’m going anyway to where my electorate wants me, with Labor.
Transpose that logic to the three wise bush monkeys and assume that their rhetoric is worth the same as Wilkie’s and guess what happens – 3 for the coalition, so it’s early to celebrate. There’s no way that their electorates can be spun as anything but conservative despite the local member appeal which is admittedly absent from Wilkie who is an accidental winner.
or get to develop the Coalition’s costings.
OC 2068 – So we’re in agreement. Oaky’s a good guy in a tough spot.
Itep
I saw that too. It should be an interesting presser hopefully tomorrow. I think the media should keep their distance, he seems very angry at them following him around. I think if Windsor has the call, he seems a very smart man, wants to make the right decision not the easy one. I think he will go labor, because of their policies already helping in the country, especially his electorate.
Cud chewer, supposedly he had one today with the Government relating to water.
gosh all these musing could be put together and we could write out own tv show
ltep – you mean the mini-presser in the taxi they just showed? I could hardly make out what he was saying. I wonder what the “water” issue is though? Murray Darling? Or the old northern rivers scheme?
and all these years I’ve thought there was no such thing :-#
Can some one tell me if these electorates where liberal
wouldn’t they vote that way.
they must be a very mixed up lot of lab greens etc.
we all mostly voted labor here so wilkie new where he stood, and as it realy could be said that Jackson got heaps more votes than wilkie on paper.
But in the indies electorate you dont know because they vote for the independents so i dont see they have any problem at all pleasing them selves.?
Pretty easy for the abc these days, they go like this
1:somebody dies a horrible death
2: some detective/forensic pathologist comes on the scene
3: stupid murder confesses when confronted.
Roll credits
start new/repeat program with the same plot as above.
Ded – what you are saying is that 1. He will lose his seat if he supports Labor 2. His political future is a paramount consideration. I disagree with both. If he can get some pork for Lyne and say ” I got parliamentary reform”, I think he wouldn’t mind ending his career in 3 years.
You also imply he needs the money but he comes from a comfortable, if not wealthy, background, gets a NSW parliamentary pension for life and has a Law degree. I think he would earn more outside parliament
Katter will go Labor.
On another tack, we went down and visited my mother in law in Myrtleford today. Water, water everywhere, along with the smell of mud. We’re grateful that the MIL lives up the hill a bit. Really feel for the folks underwater, but boy, it also feels kind of good to see floods again after so long.
A tweet from Possum. Nice news if true:
If Labor does not get in, I will be crushed. It is just so soon after the dark, miserable howard years to have to go back to that.
It’s like getting over a long bout of the winter flu, seeing spring starting to blossom and then coming down with the mumps.
,[ the Magic Dragon.
Posted Sunday, September 5, 2010 at 7:21 pm | Permalink
my say
The town’s a freakshow!
Someone on the ABC comment thread said that Midsomer was actually a very large regional area in England with lots of towns, so there could be lots of murders.
I just love the scenery.]
Yes i beleive its a county, i love the old homes, the thatched roofes
but i do worry about mrs. barnaby she seems not have have enough to do.l LOl
I love the way she dresses and love her hair doo
Mick77@2095
Thanks for the opportunity to use the word “risible” which is how I regard your “Wilkie Speak”.
The Newspoll wasn’t asking for voting intentions was it?
So was oakshutt in the nsw gov.
With almost zero population. The murderous hamlets have populations of between 20 – 100.
An average of 3 murders every episode.
Sounds like Tony’s type of woman…
2051: Has Fielding lost?
Lefty e: Did anyone answer you, I cant see? The answer is almost certainly YES! Anthony Green has him excluded on the 23rd count (need to double check exactly which order people are excluded but prob Dem Labour or Coalition win in last Vic seat.
At least this is something everyone here can rejoice in together!?
mysay yes and Katter was in the Queensland Parliament for years even a Minister in the Joh Bionkers Bananas Government.
well thats another good omen from the the goodness of light
ltep,
Especially when he’s standing leaning against the door jam, expertly honing the castrating blade of his pocket knife while he is putting forward why they should join with the Coalition.
William pointed out in his last thread that it’s not clear Fielding has lost yet. Conceivably the last spot could be won by DLP, McGauran or Fielding (probably in that order). It’s been rumored Fielding is doing well on below the line votes.
and oakshott also.
Wouldn’t it have to in order to get the “party they supported” as per William’s post?
my say
OK, here’s the plot for your murder mystery, which I tentatively entitle “Early Spring Knifings”.
An independent MP is found knifed in Parliament House. The suspects: a deranged ex monk with delusions of grandeur and a history which suggests some kind of sex problem; a red haired woman who wants to make history and has already been accused of a similar murder; two other independent MPs whom he agreed to work with; an aged multi billionaire media magnate who believes that only he should determine who is Prime Minister of Australia; an aged female MP who has her eye on the Speaker’s chair; a waiter, whom he left dinner without tipping; and a phalanx of right wing journalists, who know that the Australian people made a tragic mistake three years ago and are still trying to fix it up.
My say, I am looking forward to Seven Ages of Britain about the history of art in Britain, starting on tues night, ABC. I have not seen this one. They are starting with the Tudors, so if the worst has happened by Tuesday I can visualize Tone in Henry VIII’s court.
Jester? Nope, not qualified.
Puffy, you can always try the money bags to be less crashed:
http://pigged-out.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/doytao_moneybags.jpg
William already speculated that it didn’t look pretty for the Coalition
I see confessions. Would there be any contamination of the data by not framing the questions in the same way as a regular poll?
the series spooks comes to mind.
my absolute favourite, i wonder if the abc can ever afford that again now they have 24/7 news.
I will be very happy if Fielding has lost his senate seat. I really do believe he’s been a stain on our parliament with his juvenile stunts and ‘look at me’ attitude.
I don’t know what it is about the Senate, but it seems to produce a lot of these sorts of individuals.
Quoth Possum:
The Finnigans:
Arrrrrgggghhhh.
You fiend!!!!!!!!!!
yes me too, when we where i uk 2005 i wish some one had told us how to get to Henry ‘s palace.
I wonder who you think was the court jester in the last parliament.
Oh dear, the Cheetahs are having the Ostrich for dinner on Their ABC, A Midspring Murder indeed.
better be off to spend the evening with oh now the news in finished,
I am hoping this is my last week in exile re the 7 pm news
mysay, we could spice the plot of “Early Summer Knifings” up a bit by having an ex Prime Minister announce his retirement on the day the current Opposition Leader announces his retirement which just happens to be the day the Indys make their decisions.
ltep: Not sure what you mean, sorry.
Well done Kiddo!!!!
I forgot to add the embittered National Party leader who believes the indy ‘stole’ one of his seats.
Fielding in Senate will be a good counterbalance. It’s good to have one or two right-wing nuts like him around to offset the loonie-lefters from the Greens. Otherwise the Labor central agenda will be completely hijacked by the Loonie Left Greens.
…but that’s quite natural, because everyone forgets him!
my say
My visit was in mid 90′s. A couple of my chicks flew the nest to work over there. One married and stayed. As the Puffy’s were boat people in 1850s, I get a chuckle out of sending one back.
My Say
Oakeshott was not in the NSW government. He was elected to the parliament as the youngest member as a National in 1996. In 1998 he left the Nats citing ideological reasons which were 1. the overdevelopment of the coast – he called the deputy mayor “the Rob Jellie of the north coast” 2. I suspect there were issues with his lifestyle – but these are not stated and need not be stated here. He was an independent in the NSW parliament for 10 years and never got less than 60% of the pv. For the nats to say the coast is theirs shows a significant degree of delusion and living in the past.
Where is the s-x? Oops forgot, in Midsomer they don’t do that sort of thing.
Won’t really make a difference Mick. The Greens will have sole balance of power so eve if Fielding gets back in his vote will be worthless.
I believe he was also considered suspect by the Nats hierarchy because he is a republican.
OC 2106- Stop verballing me. I said he MIGHT lose his seat. That possibility would be weighing on his mind. As for his long-term intentions, check out his website. The guy is a politician. One of the most pro-active in the parliament. His committe work is awesome. He’s a creative guy. Ideas flow out of his head. He’s no drone. I don’t think he’s interested in a seat in a boardroom. He wants to end up with a polly’s pension.
Those are my impressions. I might be wrong. I hope he votes for Julia. I thing he will. But it’s a risk for him.
I’m not sure its ideological with Fielding. He’s just an idiot.
The Australian Senate is one of the best democratic institutions in the world. Fielding doesn’t deserve to be part of it.
“Dinner” appears to be the Non-U term for “Lunch”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U_and_non-U_English
2129: Same could be said about Xenophon.
Yes, the Nats directed members to support the no case and he refused
Puffy, they get excitement by killing each other rather than bonking each other while puffing their magic dragon frolicked by the sea.
I’m confused. Whose wife was it that did the presser the other week stating that her husband didn’t have an education to fall back on & so being ousted from politics worries him. I thought that was Oakshott’s wife.
Actually in MIdsomer they do do that sort of thing but it’s toned down from the books for TV. Nonetheless, while not explicit they’re all at it
2129: Same could be said about Xenophon.
No, that is not so. Some of his ideas I might not agree with but he is far from being a fielding idjit.
Its not even a ‘risk’ for Oakeshott, or any of them.
NBN is a total winner for any regional area.
The bigger risk is business as usual, and for these three, sitting down next to cheesy grinning Nats.
ah we are having a nice fishy dinner
If the whispered 2pp are true then either the coalition:
a) received a large protest vote from people who were p-ssed at ALP but didnt really want Abbott as Pm.
b) ran and timed their campaign to perfection
c) have lost significant support over their costings deception recnlty uncovered by the Indies
Oakeshott has an Arts degree. Regardless of degree/no degree I doubt he’d struggle to find work if he left politics.
Kind of ‘less said, more done’.
Dee I find that difficult to believe – do you have a quote
One of the smears that the Nats used to use against him is that he finished his law degree at public expense during his second term in parliament. (He used to miss Thursday night in the bear pit to go to lectures)
If Oaky jumped into a labor seat he’d be on the front bench within 12 months. We need people like Oaky in the big house.
Not really. SenX has shown he is capable of working within an evidence-based framework. Fielding has not.
SenX is a populist, but he’s not an outright juvenile.
For anyone interested in an “approximation” of the TPP
Also Katter is unfairly much maligned. We all have some loopy ideas. Nothin wrong with Bob’s. I’m still predicting he’ll jump left. Why, don’t ask me. Just a hunch. A strong hunch.
I believe the Newspoll surveyed before Costingsgate.
Oakeshott Country
Well I’m starting to think I dreamt it.
Speaking of AFL finals – a few years ago we were high up on the top deck of the Southern Stand on a Saturday night, and the TV monitor in front of our section was showing not the football (as it is supposed to as your view of the scoreboard screens is blocked), but Midsomer Murders on ABC!! It was something funny on an otherwise depressing night.
What’s so admirable about someone who takes over two weeks to decide what side of the fence he’s on and what he stands for?
Oakeshott’s parliamentary bio says he has an Arts degree and a law degree
http://aph.gov.au/house/members/biography.asp?id=IYS
Dee and others
Just to clear things up
“I have a Bachelor of Arts (Hons) and Law and view non-metropolitan disengagement in education as one of the key economic failures for Australia, and continue to work on turning this around.”
From O’s website:
http://www.roboakeshott.com/about-rob
It’s a good read.
As for Windsor, you have to like a guy who’s kind to his gran. Or was that his mum? Anyway, he knows how spend father’s day. He left the monkey house. It’s called sanity. W is the hard man of these three. He’ll make a rational decision. I was worried last week. But no longer. The broadband comments indicate a good result from Tony W.
The JWS poll was 50.4 to coalition though.
OK that means bad campaign by ALP and good campaign (Gulp!) by the libs
and voters waking up the next morning and saying
“Ohmygod, what did I do last night?!!!!”
Nite fellow bludgers. Let’s hope for good news in the morn.
Here is the Katter website:
http://www.bobkatter.com.au/
Possum I hope you’re right.
I love the way they call opossums “possums” in the USA
http://dailyshite.com/2010/03/man-tries-to-revive-dead-possum-alcohol-may-or-may-not-have-been-involved/
or should that be “ethanol”?
James J I thought you found JWS to be unreliable in their pre-election polls?
Indeed it was, and was clearly identified as such. I think the issue people have with the Newspoll however, is that the national 2PP wasn’t reported in the Oz article, despite being calculable from the data Newspoll collected.
not perfectly accurately, but well enough to know Labor was well ahead – funny they chose not to publish that bit?
The Tony Windsor Website:
http://www.tonywindsor.com.au/
2178. Untested. Not necessarily unreliable. I guess we can test the methodology now against the actual election results. Something for possum?
That and the fact that they sat on it for about five days, going public only after it started to look like the writing was on the wall.
For what it’s worth, Seven News reported a Labor government as almost a foregone conclusion.
William, I know that US politics is sort of “verboden”, but it strikes me that losing the House and maybe even the Senate may help Obama win in 2012.
Democrats plan political “triage”
http://www.insidebayarea.com/california/ci_15995785
To all PB fathers: hope you had a fab day.
England’s Murder Capital The Town of Midsomer Norton
Photos http://www.francisfrith.com/midsomer-norton/photos/
Thatch is Oh so BACK in this lovely area! Very the first stanza of Dorothea MacKellar “My Country”
Would you let Heffernan sweet talk a suitor on you behalf? I reckon Tony and the heavyweights only let Heff loose after the fact.
[steve
Posted Sunday, September 5, 2010 at 8:07 pm | Permalink
Here is the Katter http://www.bobkatter.com.au/
Thanks for that link Steve. Everyone should read Bobs attack on the Nats on the site.
How the hell he can support the Coalition if he does, is beyond me.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s3001596.htm
That’s bizzare.. there is absolutely nothing in the text of that article that justifies its headline.. Their ABC?
If Oakeshott is so concerned about education in Australia (non-metro or metro) then why would he spend more than one second considering whether to support Abbott, let alone 2 weeks?
CC, you are reading literally what is intended to be sarcastic, consistent with the tone of the article.
David, I thought this bit on the front of Katter’s site was well written:
No Xenophone’s just a mediaslut like he was over here in SA
I think it best to take absolutely no notice of this JWS survey.
It appears that they polled people that they had polled in their earlier survey and was clearly to get a result that was favourable to the Opposition’s attempts to get the Indies on board.
Just my opinion (I was one of at least 3 PB’ers polled) and you need to look at who commissioned it and the previous political affiliation of the principals.
Also my seat still has a bigger margin than 4%, so there were porkies told there.
There didn’t seem to be much concern for the state’s removal of people’s rights when he was a Minister in the Joh regime and Street Marches were banned so whether what Katter says now is what he does I have no idea.
@2190, Hmm.. maybe I’m getting too paranoid
I see that Manly are probably going to make the Finals, all because the Melbourne Storm (JG number 1 ticket holder) were banned! Sort of funny isn’t it!
Blue_green, yes. Heffernan is very persistent and passionate about rural and regional Australia. He also shares a similar dislike of The Nationals. I’ve always thought he was the ideal person to send out to talk to the independents.
Xenophon is the king of the stunt.
Oakeshott holds a BA (Hons – major in government)(Syd) and a B LLB (Macq.)
http://www.aph.gov.au/house/members/mi-alpha.asp is a good source of basic info re Federal members if you click on the relevant biography links from each members own page.
That being the case he has no choice but to go against the Coalition.
I think I’ll sleep a little easier tonight on the strength of that.
He was sitting down when he wrote that.
Cud Chewer,
The writer of that piece, Tim Dunlop, is a good progressive blogger. He does a music blog for Crikey and has his own political blog:
http://tjd.posterous.com/
He blogged at News Ltd (!) for a while, Blogocracy, which was running before and after the 2007 election. Great memories as progressives from around the country gathered daily to anticipate, and eventually celebrate, the demise of Howard and Co.
I’m not entirely sure what Katter is on about wrt industrial relations laws..
If you are referring to the alleged racism from the National party toward Oaskhott’s wife who is SE Islander descent, this was the subject of an article in the OO last Thursday as to one of the reasons Oaskshott left the National Party. If anything this would rightly embitter him toward ever supporting the coalition.
I’m no sure his role as Minister in the Joh regime helped progress Industrial Relations one iota either. Some of the worst cowboy tactics occurred in Industrial Relations in Queensland occurred while Katter was a Minister.
Bob Katter’s position on such things is similar to his position on protectionism. He doesn’t just disapprove of work choices. In his view employment regulation should go back to the days of the arbitration commission, etc. He is a believer in extensive Govt intervention in both trade and the industrial relations system.
The other thing that people need to remember about Katter is that he is 65. Any concerns about re-election are probably pretty insignificant. A place in Australian history would probably appeal, though. Not quite sure which way that is likely to make him jump!
Thanks cuppa – bit sleep deprived here
Surely you mean Abbott, who:
- Conveniently got lost in the outback,
- Nearly got cleaned up by a truck when staging a stunt on a busy highway,
- Gets around in public wearing what amounts to nothing more than underpants,
- Made a phoney display of signing a pledge not to bring back SerfChoices (joke of the political year),
- Claimed “criminal leaks in the Treasury” as an excuse to not release costings which they KNEW were BILLIONS OF DOLLARS out
What in the name of the Great Pumpkin are people doing caring about where some-one’s spouse came from?
Inconveniently found his way out again……
If he’s got an eye on how he’ll be seen by historians, you’d think he would be keen to not associate himself too closely with the Coalition, what, with their dodgy $11 BILLION costings hole and all.
Exactly – where anyone came from regardless
What is happening with this? Was a leaker found or did the reported police investigation die a quiet death?
So Mike Rann was right all along…
Did see Rhys Muldoon’s tweet WTTE?- ‘coalition staffers told ALP will form govt’
Australia is blessed to have an organisation of the integrity of News Ltd with its high level of journalistic standards and objective reporting. The world should thank us every day for our gift of Rupert Murdoch to it.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/05/magazine/05hacking-t.html?_r=1
not sure if this was posted before, but an excellent article today on what Tony Windsor is thinking about………
http://aussieobserver.blogspot.com/2010/09/which-way-will-country-independents.html?spref=tw
In other words, stop dreaming of the bigger offices
How good are these blokes? Unlike Wilkie, they’ve been observing the antics of Abbott and the rest of ‘em at close quarters for years (as have I, by the way, but I’d better not go there) and they’re still having trouble making up their minds?
Yes, but he could always be the one that gets them elected and THEN dispatches them a little further down the track. Definitely look more impressive on the Wiki entry!
Does Australia have a Posse Comitatus equivalent?
With all this flooding, Julia could declare a national state of emergency, send in the troops and remain in power if KOW are thinking of going to the Libs.
The gracious defeat speech should be one for the archives.
I think the indies have been wise to hold their own counsel till now: Abbott has now proved beyond reasonable doubt what a complete plonker and bully he is; Costingsgate established how completely unfit the LNP is for office; and Wilkie exposed the “end the waste” crap as empty spin.
Id say the only backlash the indies could generate at this point is by putting Phoney’s conmen and no-hopers into office.
Dio, return to your home and await further orders…
Joh would have done that the first week of the election campaign Diogenes won 19% of the votes 80% of the seats and carried on as usual.
Wilkie’s “maiden speech” should also be worth bottling.
Katter’s site also states
It’s a brave person that attempts to put him in any category.
Is there any precedent for the Indies to explain to Parliament why they chose one side ove the other?
Their reasons should be run through Hansard.
Gold!
I don’t think Abbott will concede. He’ll just go with the illegitimate government stuff and that’s it.
That is if Labor form Government.
I’d like to think Gillard would concede if the independents back Abbott.
Blue_green, I suspect they’ll do it if Gillard forms Government, when Abbott moves a confidence motion in the Government. In the ensuing debate, which should be quite lengthy, each independent will probably state their case towards the end of the debate.
As noted, even on Insiders.
(Shock! Horror! Rue the day!)
But of course Newspoll isn’t nobbled. It’s just the interpretation that’s nobbled.
Abbott will concede in the event that the trio go with Gillard, I feel certain. Whatever else Abbott is, he is also a sportsman from way back. He’ll recognise the need for a proper sporting acknowledgement of the victor though he can (quite reasonably I suppose) qualify such a concession fairly heavily, given the circumstances.
Scarpat
Does that mean I don’t have to go to work tomorrow?
Just dont mention the missing one
But here first, by Aristotle, I think.
One tends to lose track of the shenanigans the OO gets up to.
I hope MediaWatch takes up the question of the delayed release of Newspoll, and interrogates the Oz on its conduct, however with the lightweight Paul Barry in the chair and not Jonathan Holmes, I’m not overly hopeful.
If anything is to be gained by the Coalition NOT getting the gig, it’s that we won’t have to put up with John Howard as Governor-General.
If the indies come out and back Abbott, Gillard will most definitely resign the PMship, I reckon. However, if they back Gillard (even if they commit to it in writing) I expect Abbott to still demand it be tested in the House. That way he can demonstrate that he fought to the bitter end and exhausted all methods of ridding Australia of a “bad government”
I sincerely hope he doesn’t start spewing lines about government legitimacy though…
On defining Katter – a classical rural populist (in the traditional sense) full of apparently contradictoy policies that he perceives as in his & his electorates’ (and by extension the national) interests
Oops contradictory
Paul Barry can be pretty heavy when he wants to be. Just ask Alan Bond. Or Kerry Packer, for that matter.
Dio, you will be informed in due course…
Bushie
KP would be a tad hard
If he really was to play with a straight bat he would start his speech (whether defeated or not) by paying enormous gratitude to the media for all the help they’ve given him:
- Not pursuing him too hard on costings, policy or the 11 BILLION costings blowout,
- Making hardly a fuss about his continually walking out of press conferences when the questions got a little tricky,
- Going after Labor solidly since November 25, 2007
The fact that the journalists made nothing of this highlights the penalty that Australia pays through the lack of media ownership diversity in this country.
Here is the phone number if people want to call Media Watch, to suggest it to them …
Media Watch
02 8333 4454
Dr Bogan, he won’t kick Julia in the guts. The worst he’ll do is abstain. I only have my intuition to base that on though.And a sh*tload of hope.
Ahhh – another way for Howard to return to Kirribilli. But its just not going to happen
Heavier than Holmes, I reckon. Last time Barry was on Media Watch, he was sacked by Shier.
I want that Rabbit concession in budgiesmugglers
Two OO News Ltd journos (Michael Stutchbury and Jennifer Hewitt) are doing the darn best to get Abbott over line with the Undies whereas Paul Kelly is trying to be even handed on Slynews.
And why we must struggle, kick, fight and scream to keep the ABC independent.
Steve he is certainly a contradiction, in contradiction
If Abbott makes PM, we’ll get Howard back, for sure.
@confessions, didn’t the reported criminal associations at the “independant” Accounting firm change minds on that issue? Or was it the now proven deceptive costings from that accounting firm thats seemed to have given the Libs short term memory?
Howard has been sniffing around looking for crumbs since election night.
Cuppa@2253
You mean make the the ABC independent, surely…
The Independents’ reforms are worthless. As soon as either one of the Woolies/Coles parties gets control again the “reforms” will be discarded. Both Labor and Liberal are “winner takes all” parties.
If Parliament approximated more closely the expressed votes of the electors the lower house would be more like:
LP/LNP/CLP 61
NP 5
FF/CDP 4
TOTAL RIGHT 70
ALP 58
GP 18
TOTAL LEFT 76
IND 4
Total 150
Ted Mack thinks the Undies will go with labor.
Admittedly, the current ALP is “left” in only a very relative term
Sadly, Musrum, you’re right of course…
On the murder rate in Midsomer Murders, the homicide rate is much lower than in many American cities.
Someone worked it out and there were about 200 murders in 10 years in Midsomer Country (which prob has a non-metropolitan population of about 500,000 given the towns it has been filmed in, although it is a fictional county).
That’s a homicide rate of about 4 per 100,000 which is about the world’s average.
Baltimore, St Louis and New Orleans have a murder rate about 10 times that.
My feeling is that oak and wind were always going to back gillard. The reason they are holding out so long is it’s a one chance in a lifetime to get some real reforms into the parliament ect, and they want to get it right. I know if I were in their shoes, I would use this lucky even HOR numbers to its full advantage.
Alias went -
Very very doubtful. He is a thug a bully who thought IT was his. He has known most of this week that it just will not happen and he will be a very bitter and twisted loser.
When KOW announce their decision (it may be tuesday) we will see the REAL abbott and it will not be pretty. His mask will very quickly slip and his bitterness will scar and damage him for the rest of his life. He will not get over this easily.
Just watch and see.
A pox on him and the rest of the liberals.
Rod Hagen @ 2206
Well, his place in history would certainly be assured if he were to be the person who helped the first female prime minister of Australia to get re-elected.
Radical, certain powers could be embedded so that it makes it harder for future governments to change. For instance, the budget office would be set up via legislation, as would the proposed delegation of power to the Information Commissioner to assess claims of public interest immunity for non disclosure of ordered documents.
Probably expecting a bit much to think the independents would allow PR through. It should seriously be looked at over this term though.
Dio, what about Mt Thomas?
@warwick: probably explains the silence from the coalition.
I’d love to say I’m surprised the investigation appears to have gone nowhere, but Robb never struck me as convincing at the time.
when i googled rob oakshott it seems he has a law degree and labor did not stand
a candidate in the by election he won in so may be a lot of labor people voted for him , also it seems he was in a state nsw seat also.
so i dont think he would be to worried.
Agree dave. If Gillard wins the Independents’ support, there will be nothing gracious about the behaviour of Abbott and the Coalition.
Everything will be about being “cheated” and it will be very ugly.
grey
I never watched Blue Heelers but I looked it up. Mt Thomas had 10,000 people and the series lasted 11 years. So if they has more than 4 murders in that time, they were worse than Midsomer county.
ITEP, Once either party gets another 51% and 18 or so majority (ie wins all) and a deal-making senate .. all inconvenient “reforms” are off ….
The current system is corruptive it makes the Lib/Labs pander to the same tiny unrepresentative group (mostly thick nasties) …… and the majority of the population get little say … It is a USA disease … most influences from that country are malign, in my opinion
Triffid@2271
And expect the OO to smear the Indis by doibg an FOI on their phone records etc and trying to find some dirt – even something simple like failing to sign a document relating to running for Parliament.
Hinch reckons it’s Labor:
This would presume you’d have an unprincipled Senate balance of power who would damage themselves. Unlikely. Convenient argument though. The Greens will hold the balance of power for some time now.
I tend to agree. I think Katter is agonising between Labor and abstain.
That Hinch tweet has about 10 assumptions built in.
FOI wouldn’t extend to parliamentarians’ phone records would it?
There were more killings, bashings, molestations, abuse, thievery than you could shake a stick at.
I am surprised there isn’t a website detailing them all.
There is a body-count website for Midsomer.
Lucky it’s all just made up hey?
frank
if hinch has called it……..
ITEP, thnak you for your response. Does the Senate get to vote on standing orders in the House? I do not know, but I would think not
I see NSW Labor is paying $7.40 for the March election.
Ouch!
It is a little-known fact that there are 62 unaired episodes of Midsomer Murders when nothing actually happens in terms of crime and mayhem. Just tedious everyday life in lovely rustic surroundings.
…election night 2007
I also don’t agree Tone will concede in the traditional sense if Gillard forms govt. On election night he gave a triumphant speech, as if he’d won, despite there being no indication of such. And in the post-election period, apart from a day of being warm and cuddly, he’s been intemperate and over-bearing towards the indies, suggesting an impatience that undermines the temperament required for these delicate and sustained negotiations.
He clearly wants to win, and I assume wants it badly. He strikes me as the kind of person who doesn’t take rejection too well. We will see what happens, but if Tone isn’t PM, I can’t see that Labor or the indies are going to get an easy time of it this term.
Dio
I got in at 9.00
The ALP should “entice” some NSW members to cross the floor and support a no confidence motion .. Get the bloody boil lanced!! The longer they wait the worse it’s going to be, in my opinion.
Well, Matlock – of ‘Matlock Police’ fame – must trump them all.
At its peak (according to Wikipedia, which doesn’t give a current population figure) it had a population of 300 people.
From memory, the TV show ran on at least a weekly basis, and I clearly remember at least one bombing and multiple murders.
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2010/09/05/tony-abbotts-case-for-government/#comment-232676
An interesting comment from poster, Joe2, at Larvatus Prodeo:
They could be 1000-1 in truth. I can’t think of anything that would save the NSW Labor Party.
Assuming Abbott loses, it will be interesting to see how the Coalition treats its senior MPs.
Sure, there will be a feeling of gratitude from a number who believe that he did a wonderful job to bring them this close to victory. However, there will surely be question mark over their competence and judgement with the costing issue and some of their more stupid policies such as the dud wireless broadband policy.
I’d suggest maybe 6-12 months with Abbott, and then a new leader and a major reshuffle, with Hockey facing a serious demotion.
LWP
the greens
Radical, no they don’t. House operations could only be embedded by moving to an electoral system that guaranteed no party was likely to ever hold a majority or (perhaps) through Constitutional amendment. The latter would probably be ill advised.
Otherwise it just has to be cultural change and political pressure. Weak I know.
The NSW Liberal Party.
I think people are forgetting that Tony Abbott made some grudgingly admiring comments about Julia Gillard on election night (admittedly after JG had set the tone by giving TA some praise for his doggedness).
I stand by my prediction: Abbott will concede. It may be laced with qualifications about how Gillard has not won a conventional victory, and how she very nearly lost, but he will concede in a formal sense (assuming of course that the trio go with Labor, which they very well may not despite all the optimism here). Mark my words.
They won’t do that. Their entire reason for being is to be in Government. With the thrashing they are going to receive it could be some decades before they get back in again.
I just put on Keating the musical to amuse myself again, when will they do the sequel?:)
Cuppa, Oakeshott has claimed those figures show that he just likes the Government to be able to govern, but I think that’s a flimsy claim. His vote isn’t needed to allow the Government to govern.
leftwingpinko@2291
In previous elections it has been the NSW Liberal Party….
Well, if ‘Hunch’ has called it for JG, I guess I can sleep easy tonight? I don’t think so …
This might be a bit radical for many on this blog who seem to analyse every word from certain pollies’ mouths as “gospel” truth, and ridicule the diatribes of others. Let’s assume based on many centuries of precedents that virtually all pollies are self-centred self-serving two-faced lying hypocrites and want to always be well coated in teflon. The 3 indies announce that they were unable to get an agreed outcome that gave a workable majority to either side (you can guess if they mean 76 or 77) and therefore will not support either side. We’ll never know who supported who and they all go back as pure independents with a slather of signed agreements from both sides for each of their own electorates or pet projects. Too machiavellian (or however it’s spelt)? Who knows?
ITEP, does a PR system require constitutional change?
If it is a Labor Government I think that the Liberals will stick with Abbott until the new senate sits to test the stability of the Governamnt up to that point. Hockey could be demoted to OL
but the Libs could go with Morrison.
Of course the Undies are getting great free publicity for reelection too. It’s an opportunity to good to pass up
Mick77.. That would just be an utter abandonment of their endlessly repeated mantra of achieving “stable government”.
Scarpat@2295
snap!
Interesting speculation from many here about whether Mr Abbott, in the event that he loses out in the current situation, will seek to portray a new Gillard government as illegitimate.
Legitimacy is not a very precisely defined concept, and if the spin he put on such an argument was the undeniable fact that the electorate had given Ms Gillard a decidedly qualified, less-than-ringing endorsement, it probably wouldn’t do his side much harm, and would probably resonate with some voters.
The risk for the Coalition in such a scenario, however, would be in believing its own propaganda, and subconsciously using the asserted illegitimacy of the government as a justification for not doing the hard work on policy which the next few years will require.
There’s a parallel with the ALP in 1975-77: they did almost nothing but bang on about the dismissal, ignoring the fact that 56% in two-party terms had voted for Fraser in 1975. It made them look backward looking, and they hardly made any progress at the 1977 election. There is a real danger for the Coalition that an ALP-Greens-Independents alliance will not just work, but work well, and be seen by the voters as responding to their dissatisfaction with politics as usual. If there really is a paradigm shift, being seen to be locked into the old ways of doing politics won’t help the Coalition one bit. Mr Abbott, in such circumstances, may need a few more people skills than he appears to have displayed in the last fortnight.
Confessions @ 2286.
If, as i think will happen, Gillard forms a minority Govt with the support of two of the indies, then Abboott and the Morgoth Media will go feral.
It will involve a lot of the “We Wus Wobbed” being endlessley repeated in as many different fora as possible. Look how well simple, repetative slogans endlessly repeated passing unquestioned by a compliant media served them in this election?
However, i also think that since it is in NO-ONES interest except the Lib/Nats for Australia to go to the polls before 2013 sometime, We may find that from now till July 2011 we just get a fairly boring, workmanlike parliament where the Libs chew the furniture while around them stuff gets done. If things are blocked in the Senate they will just get put aside to go through after July 1 2011.
In fact, the only game in town for the media may well be reporting on Liberal furniture chewing, and the progress of the developing position on a carbon price.
Really hope some of the new rules for QT and the operation of parliament get through. Pyne will be hopeless under rules like that and will likely spend more time out of parliament than in it.
Here is one for Psephos. It’s the Facebook summary of WWII.
http://www.collegehumor.com/article:1802364
alias 2306 – again, that’s if you believe what they say – I’m getting even more cynical by the day.
All the corporate bookies have closed their Fed election markets……..Betfair still trading in a range of $1.56 Labor / $2.46 Coalition. Need to remember that majority are TRADING and not BETTING and thus have no interest in the outcome…….
alias 2284
Priceless!
Maybe there are whole series of “24″ on the cutting room floor because they just show Jack Bauer having an ordinary boring day, spending most of it blogging here!
Please, no.
It’d depend on the system. It’d need to be state-based rather than national for instance. I’m not sure the country independents would go for a PR system, but as I said, I think it’s time for them to start at least publicly looking at it.
OK Thanks ITEP … so a state PR would be better (than the existing), i will re-do my “parliament”
Don’t overlook that abbott has been an effective opposition leader and in his bitter and twisted mind frame he may initially appeal to the libs as he seeks to tear down the gillard government.
But he will over-reach he will just go too far and come unstuck and the libs will need to face up to re building.
Alias – I disagree with you as usual, but we will all know the answer soon, hopefully tomorrow but it may be tuesday.
Oh yes!
I know bugger all about real estate but jules house in Lalor would have gone up a notch or three?
itep @ 2315 – It’s obvious the Greens would benefit from a PR system, rather less obvious that it would be of any advantage to the three country independents. And it probably wouldn’t appeal to them much either, since their approach to “representation” has been much more built around the “local agent” model which is argued by some to fit better with single-member constituencies than with PR.
On the bigger question of government formation, one thing which will work in Mr Abbott’s favour if he loses out with the independents is that the electorate, just as it didn’t unequivocally endorse the government, didn’t unequivocally reject the opposition. Normally when a government wins an election its sins from the previous term are in effect wiped clean by the fact that the electorate still voted it back in. Had the government won an outright majority, the opposition probably would have had to stop talking, or talking as much, about insulation and school halls. But this time, I sense the slate has been wiped quite so clean.
I think I heard somewhere that Katter wants to go back to centralised wage fixing for the farming industry. (sarcastic tone) I bet that would go down well with the Coalition …
The problem for Abbott is that if the Independents side with Labor, he has to defend his election costings which is a hopeless position to be in as Opposition leader (especially when it’s Independents who are making the decisions). What’s worse for the Liberals regarding the costings is that Joe Hockey’s credibility has been tainted as well so there goes any hope of the party accepting the compromise position. In the end, they’re going to have to face the fact that Malcolm Turnbull is the only person in the party at the present moment who has the economic credibility and political ability to get the Liberals back into government.
grey
Julia’s house is not in Lalor. It is in Altona (her electorate of Lalor). I think you are confused.
2320 – “has not been wiped quite so clean”. Fingers too fat again tonight.
triffid
Fair enough on their lack of policy
However, on the costing issue I dont think there is a particularly question of “competence”: it was always a deliberate, purposeful fraud, not incompetence
Pedant, I doubt the Opposition will still be talking school halls and batts in 3 years time.
No let Pyne in the Butt stay in QT we don’t want him hanging around in SA like a bad smell.
Mick77:
The Machivellian approach would work in some cases, except that they’d get bugger all pork (it would be withdrawn despite any agreements made) the same goes for any reforms that they sign off on because the party discipline & machines of the ALP and the Fibs would destroy them & any agreements. Worst of all for them, abstaining would come at some cost to the credibility of their efforts on parliamentary reform. Such a decision might make them look pure & furthermore another election would not be popular & it’s hard to imagine Fibs winning any election, thus they would get a Lab govt anyway, so why not go Lab now and maintain credibility, some pork & benefit from anymore free publicity for improving parliament?
Is altona in Lalor?
Agree he has been effective as Opposition Leader, but I think there’s a lot of Liberals who would prefer not to have him as leader – they just prefer him over Labor.
I don’t think Abbott will have a great deal of patience if he loses – it’s hard to imagine him staying focussed and disciplined for another 3 years.
boat sheds perhaps?
spur 212 @ 2321 – Mr Abbott may come to regret his extensive use of the introductory phrase “Great Big … “. “Great Big Black Hole” has a certain resonance, does it not? (Incidentally, when the term “black hole” was first used in cosmology, the French refused to adopt it, since the translated term, “trou noir”, apparently has a decidedly vulgar meaning.)
Diog 2310
sad but true
Altona, and Julia Gillard, are in Gellibrand.
grey
No. Altona is in the seat of “Lalor”. Just like the suburb of Lalor is in the seat of “Scullin”
William Bowe
Altona is in seat of “Lalor”
And yes Victoria – what a beaut suburb it is
Here’s some facts about Altona.
Still can get a bayside house for under a million dollars, biggest bayside coastal park except for Point Nepean
This huge wetlands crowded with migratory Northern hemisphere birds, some from as far away as Russia.
And one for the Blues supporters, Jezza lives on the Esplanade.
Bad luck today BTW Victoria (you are ablues fan aren’t you?0
Lacoon, my personal opinion is in line with yours, in that I think it was an obvious plan to deceive.
However, it was obviously a strategy developed by senior Coalition MPs, so I’d suggest there will be an number of their colleagues who will regard this as incomptence.
Nuh-uh.
The AEC thinks Altona is in Gellibrand
http://www.aec.gov.au/pdf/profiles/2007/g/gellibrand.pdf
Correct WB – Julia lives in the second safest Labor seat in the country – hope she donkey voted for Nicola just like on the Labor HTV card.
Julia Gillard lives outside her electorate? You mean she chooses to live in the fairly grim suburb of Altona (well it looks grim on TV) but isn’t even in Lalor?
JoffaBoy
Yes, very disappointed about Blues loss. My second favorite team Hawks went down yesterday. Labor better get over line, otherwise I am in for a pretty miserable week.
Well, I apologise. Sorry. Good thing about this place learning all the time.But just possibly, when she wins, that could all change.
Altona was in Lalor when Gillard entered parliament, but it was transferred to Gellibrand in the 2001 redistribution.
It’s worth remembering that the Coalition went through two leaders (plus the Man Who Never Was) before arriving at Mr Abbott, rather like Lincoln and his generals. And one reason Mr Abbott did well was because the last ten months have suited him, and because he made the most of his opportunities. It’s by no means clear that he would have done any better than Dr Nelson or Mr Turnbull at the times they were in the top job. And it’s not clear right now that the next term of Parliament will suit Mr Abbott’s style, if he’s in opposition. That having been said, he did so much better at the election than any of the Coalition would have thought possible when he made it to the top job that I can’t imagine his position will be under any real threat. (But I thought that about Mr Rudd as well.)
Thats just spin. The libs’ butts will still be on the wrong side of the speaker. They know and labor know it. It will be another 3 long years in opposition and the libs do not do opposition well.
Of course they will do their utmost to engineer a crisis to have a election asap and murdochs mob will assist – anything to stop the NBN. (They just cannot have the australian national interest put before murdoch’s commercial interests)
The Aussie economy is going gangbusters and even if the world economy goes belly up again some time soon, we are still in a better position to cope than most other places.
Another 3 years of high mineral prices and sound levels of company profits and subsequent tax inflows will enable labor to deliver many things the electorate want.
William
Isn’t Gellibrand Nicola Roxon’s seat?
If you think Altona is grim, you have never been here.
Altona is a fantastic place to live – i have been here more than 12 years, and would not live anywhere else in Melbourne.
But please keep spreading that it is no good, it may keep two bob snobs like yourself out of our suburb.
Dave
re the NBN
one of the “hidden” things about the NBN is the regional hubs to be developed
effectively mini exchanges where you acne learn and coordinate ona a local/regional level
destroys the power of the mass media somewhat
Well you’ll just have to support the Saints for the finals
I’ll say G’day to jezza for you next time I see him down the shops
Personally I dont care who leads the fibs as long as the Speaker needs to look to the left to see them
One side gets to put forward a Budget – if done properly the rest is nothing
Correct, Victoria.
JoffaBoy
I would love Saints finally get a Premiership after so long. I am supporting them for the flag this year.
As long as the Saints are alive I still believe Labor can achieve an absolute majority
The thing is that Abbott had a great campaign and result this time because the ALP were a complete catastrophe.
For the last nine months the Liberal Party have been waiting for the election, hoping they could come through unscathed and in relative terms, they would be over the moon. The problem is that now they have a much bigger problem which is that they lied to the Australian public and it wasn’t just a small lie, it was a huge lie and now unless the Independents side with Abbott, it’s going to be almost impossible for him to salvage his economic credibility from the position of Opposition Leader and the same also goes for his likely moderate replacement Joe Hockey which is why this has so quickly turned into a nightmare for the Liberals (except of course for Malcolm Turnbull for whom this is a dream scenario).
I think that this was Tony’s one and only opportunity. Even if there were to be another election in the short term (in the case of a Labor minority government being unstable) all credibility has been lost with Costingsgate.
Now the second safest labor seat in the land.
What chance $350 mill for a new hospital, or some other pork in my electorate?
About as much chance as NSW labor winning in March i would say.
No offence intended Joffaboy. As I say, I’m just going on TV images so it was a qualified comment. Don’t you have a big power station down there?
Turnbull isn’t an option for the Liberal Leadership until after the government finally deals with the ETS.
Thanks Victoria. All we need to do is win 14 flags in a row and we will only be one behind you
.
As a Saints fan you live in hope that you will see one flag before you die.
Perhaps Gellibrand and Lalor should vote independent.
or become marginal
alias
when it comes to living in any particular suburb, obviously some places are much nicer than others. I actually look at things differently these days. If you are lucky enough to afford a roof over your head, all is good. After all the sun does not discriminate. It shines everywhere.
Gus – you’re right of course. The mass media are destroying themselves with their
crap product in my view.
I’m quite willing to pay for good stuff. AFR is the only paper I buy these days.
Worked for Bennelong.
In Lalor?
JoffaBoy
Sincerely, I do hope it is the Saints year! Geelong have had their success of late, and no one ever wants the Magpies to win a flag. If they win, we will be hearing about it for the next 20 years. Doh!
2354 – Unfortunately as much as you or I might wish for it the Liberals will not be returning to Turnbull any time soon.
Under Turnbulls leadership the Libs poll numbers were diabolical – the best he ever polled was 46 – 54, and it got as bad as 42 – 58 – I only wish they had kept him.
grey
what is your fixation with Lalor. Do you live there?
Who can win the next election for the fibs – assuming the ALP runs a decent campaign (ie takes our advice)
Three Boats, Sloppy and Modadon Man are surely lost in a spinning black hole
Pyne – enough said
Abetz or two –
Mesma – mesma
Brandis – the sneer
macfarlane – the vpoice
Dutton
Kevinn Andrews – after Hanneef
I reckon a points decision
the greenies will help the end result
ala tas
spur212 @ 2354 – I’m sure you are right: if the Coalition go into Opposition, the costings issue will be seen as the thing that did for them, especially if the Independents make further reference to it. And they way it was handled was a decision for which Mr Abbott must take responsibility. It will be the simple explanation for (probably more complex) events which will burn into the consciousness of the body politic.
Oddly enough, my guess is that an Abbott opposition would be best advised to adopt the kinder, gentler approach which he talked about, not all that convincingly, after the election. But I don’t think that will be tenable given his competitive approach to life, and in any case, even if the public is turned off by such tactics, opposition backbenchers seldom are. (I can think of quite a few cases in which Opposition Leaders were dumped for being too insipid, but almost none where they have been dumped for being too feisty.)
William Bowe@2364
But it didn’t for Fremantle
It might become a Liberal Seat idf Adele decides to join her Troy Boy politically
For anyone who saw Prissy Pyne on Meet the Press today, he was not giving up on the indies going with the coalition. He did not stress enough times how pathetic Labor have been over the past three years. He is so nauseauting.
Scott Morrison or Malcolm Turnbull?
no one will remember this. what they will remember, if it comes to pass, is that he nearly accomplished a seemingly impossible feat. and often success, even if limited, is its own justification. in 3 years if he is still leader i assure you that no one who matters in electoral terms will remember the costings disaster.
Curiously, if you had a PR based on states it would be little difference from national, except Wilkie would not have got up in Tas … FF and that curious NSW party CDP would have got up
ALP 58
LP 61
GP 18
NP 6
Ind 3
FF 3
CDP 1
150
ALP/GP 76
LP/NP/FF/CDP 71
IND 3
But that would be more democratic …
He is well placed to comment on being pathetic
None taken, a bit heavy handed on my part.
Dont know where you are from Alias, but the Western Suburbs of melbourne get a pretty rough deal from the rest of melbourne and you get a little thin skinned.
No power station but we have Oil refineries.
But in context “‘Altona” as a suburb is extremely large. Altona North begins about 2 klms west of the Westgate Bridge. My home is ten kilometres from Altona North. Altona Meadows goes for another 5 kilometres west of me.
I can stand on the top of the hill at the hundred steps Coastal park and have an unintruppted view of the city to the Dandenong Mountains 50 klm to the East. Looking South I can see to Portarlington which is near the heads of Port Philip bay.
Turning to the North I can see 7 klms of wetland that extends south another 7 klms to Point Cook and beyond.
Altona Bay is long and shallow and arcs for about 3 kilometres lined with Norfolk Palms. The beach is undergoing a refurbishment and will be beautiful for a bay beach by summer.
It is a hidden gem, and I wouldn’t trade it for the world. I believe I am very fortunate.
cheers
Sure we have industry, but it is miles from Altona residental
victoria@2373
Speaking of Prissy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGU7gJnrRIk
Michael Gordon in The Age yesterday:
I think I commented here at the time that this really looked rather crass, especially as it was done while the cameras were rolling and would have been quite embarrassing for the independents. I remember that Windsor and Oakeshott didn’t look at or touch their folders.
As Gordon notes however, this is the only public misstep we have seen from Gillard during the negotiating period. I’m yet to see Abbott do anything right. ‘Sincere’ apologies and “I love the country” statements to those who suddenly hold power, more bluster to deny submission of policy costings and then having it blow up in his face, tactics of intimidation &c, &c. It really will be a surprise if these guys throw their hats in with Abbott & Co.
He may or may not be nauseauting but he was being professional trying to get his team over the line.
Spur – just think about the untenable positions hockey and robb are already in regarding the black hole and the $1 Billion for Hobart Hospital.
Robb has gone further saying on national TV that the coalition can support the majority of kattor’s wish list, which include tarrifs back, dirty float of the dollar, interest rates be brought into line with the crisis levels of US & Europe of almost zero etc etc.
The libs are a laughing stock in any serious economic discussion.
That’s a very good point Victoria. I wasn’t for one moment intending to sound snobbish. I’m far from it, and live in fairly humble circumstances
As annoying as he’s been in opposition over the last few years, imagine how bad it would be if he was the Minister for Education.
For all of the people saying that Turnbull is not an option, who is?
Dare I say, Sophie Mirabella? Julie Bishop? … Bronwyn Bishop?
I can’t see any prospect for the Liberal Party except Turnbull even if he is divisive to the right wing base. He’s the only candidate they’ve got who can capture the middle ground.
Frank#2379
good one!
WRONG
Oakeshott became an Independent in early 2002, after having won the 1996 by-election and the 1999 general election as an endorsed Nationals candidate. he first contested an election as an Independent in 2003.
That just made me chuckle. It brings to my mind an image of the ALP having a senior campaign big wig, sitting on a computer all day reading PB…
“Gusface reckons we should do ads with footage of Abbott being a dick.”
“victoria reckons that Gillard should say the following about Hockey…”
…on second thought, some on here probably think that happens…
Sounds very pleasant indeed Joffaboy
*ahem*
It depends on the content and how it was couched. If it was pure pork then it would be offensive but if it was along the lines of ‘the benefit to your electorate of the implementation of the NBN are …’
PY @ 2387
You think getting a year wrong warrants bold and capital letters?
If we do end up going to the polls early, can Gillard/Abbott both commit to doing so in the late spring/early summer? I don’t want to be freezing my butt off again!
TSOP
TP is karl bitar
doncha know
Wouldn’t work, though, would it Mick? Neither side would regard the agreements as binding in such circumstances, and probably wouldn’t be able to deliver on them anyway. A new election would almost certainly be called and it wouldn’t surprise me in such circumstances to see BOTH sides opposing the Independents in their own electorates (rather than Labor running dead in them as they currently do) instead of just the Coalition. While they would probably just hang on given the size of their margins, it would be an uncomfortable election, and the Indis coffers must be a bit strained so soon after the last one.
TSOP
Could the have done worse if they had listened to us
In actual fact Alias, Gillards electorate is very working class and humble. Takes in Werribee which is very working class. I dont think there would be a middle class suburb in Gillards electorate compared to Roxon who has Williamstown, Seaholme, and you could count Altona all as middle class or in Williamstowns case, very middle/upper, especially in real estate values.
grey
what is your fixation with Lalor. Do you live there?
No. I live in Grey. I hope with all sincerity that my Prime Minister represents the citizens of Lalor, and the rest of us. Fixation is a word. Prime Ministers are not.
alias
we all have an opinion about different places. It doesn’t mean we are snobs or otherwise. I too have made less than flattering comments about certain places. But when I reflect, I realise that it does not mean much really. Of course, we all like to live in the nicer part of town. Who truthfully wouldn’t, but as I stated before, as long as we have a roof over our head, we are doing okay.
grey
good point!
surely truthy is bitar and GP is abib
Oh yes. We suggest some crazy crap on here. The worst part is, we say “Oh Labor should do this” and then Labor actually does do it and it hurts them and then suddenly everybody starts saying “Oh why did Labor did that? It was such a stupid move!”
Tony Abbott can continue to say he’s a hedgehog, but after the $10.6 Billion hole was revealed last week, the Canberra Press Gallery no longer believe him. They can now see very clearly that he’s Tony Abbott and he tried to lie his way into office.
As I said we do have heavy industry.
Home is where the heart is.
I am originally from Sydney which is a fantastic place, but my home and heart is Melbourne, and Altona.
cheers,
The right royal Pyne in the arse as Min. Education stop that you’re scaring me :p
To Saints fans sorry about 98 (not really) I’ll get on you guys if Swans go out & its doen to you Victorians stealing our water
No. I doubt Bitar would be able to successfully make a post on here without stuffing it up.
TP is Chris Pyne.
Pica
Sorry, I meant for those of us who do not support the Magpies. Obviously, you would dearly love a Premiership.
TSOP
cool
tho I reckon ltep is Robb
Hmmm. I did wonder about this.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/private-problem-for-new-hobart-hospital/story-fn59niix-1225914008376
Victoria
I wouldn’t want to live in the nice part of town – too many wiberals
2402 – Yeh it’s an easy game when you don’t have to play it.
Gus
Can I be Wilkie? Please.
V P
Actually, I did not think of that.
Confession time: I’m actually Wilson Tuckey! I was robbed!
Should have been carrying your Ironbar then, shouldn’t you.
Apparently, the Libs have not signed on to the Parliamentary reforms. There is a suggestion that this will hold off decision for the indies. Has anyone heard anymore on this?
TSOP
well Im malcolm turnbull
on my good days
TSOP/Wilson
But think of the pension – and now the nasty speaker can’t tell you to sit down
TSOp /GusFace
Can I be Julia
Dio
Ive long suspected you of being fielding
P Vernula
which one?
You have to have your lips surgically removed first.
when you have a positive bank balance?
Provisional ‘yay’ for the senate being rid of Fielding – but anyone know when they actually press the button and confirm?
I trust the moment will be noted on the public record.
Phony will check a major wobbly if the Indies go Gillard tomorrow – three more years of mood-stabilising injections!
Can I be Penny Wong?
Oh but VP I want to be Julia!
Scarpat, no-one watching the footage got to read the content of the folders. The independents would have felt straight away that it looked bad.
The blunder was in the presentation on camera, not in the actual content of the folders, whatever it was. The media was the (unfortunate) message.
But anyway not a big thing, and it appears that Gillard has handled negotiations well off-camera.
Scarps
Nup
when people luv me
If I was a Lib leadership contender, rather than pointing to the costings as the cause of the “loss” (if it is one), I’d be making my running on the fact that the Coalition lost because of an absence of policy work and vision. The campaign may have been effective negatively, but there was nothing positive there at all to “lock in” the vote.
Turnbull could have a field day with such things. The stupidity of the broadband policy, the lack of anything to say beyond “stop the boats” etc, the failure to genuinely articulate a climate change policy, the failure to come up with any broad infrastructure projects to get voters minds off the Howard government’s huge failures in this area, etc etc.
In reality, if the Indis go with Labor it will owe at least as much to such things as to Abbott’s silly prevarication over costings.
I meant RangaOne (since I and my buddies have been running the country for the last two weeks – got a taste for it)
but what are the other options
Joffa
lofty aspirations
PS I still cant believe the media didnt go with
“Wilkie’s hospital pass to Abbott”
Works on so many levels….
2310
That does not mention China until 1940 despite Japan and China going to war in 1937!
Now you are on the right track Spur.
Abbott tried to lie his way into office by cooking the books, then refusing to show the umpire and the voters those same books.
When forced by the Indi’s to do so – it all came tumbling down – the lies, deception, manipulation & incompetence. Then to cap it all off he decided to have another $1 Billion throw at winning which resulted in Wilkiie outing him as a fraud and a con job.
Then robb wants to implement all the worst things on Katters list.
Labor will never let the electorate forget this and murdoch won’t be able to stop it.
Well yes, that’s true. But would that ultimately serve any good or would I just be exacerbating the problem? Many philosophers over time have debated the virtues of non-violence versus the negative side effect of appearing submissive and weak. It is an internal moral struggle that one finds they cannot resolve…
Also, I’m kind of on police probation.
Gus, how could anyone not luv youse?
Well i dont wear makup and have a huge collection of highly fashionable Maoist pant suits just like the Penster, as we at the sisterhood affectionately know her as
Is there any oxygen on the planet you;re on – I wish what you says was true but the power of the MSM is strong
Scarps
Im sure malcolm ponders that every night as he contemplates rabbotticide
Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
I thought it was Matthew Abraham.
HB, yes I agree – shadow beating substance once again
Not sure that this reporting is accurate. From when i saw that on the news my recollection of it was that the folders contained information on what the ALP in govt HAD done for their electorates already, not what pork that was on offer for their support in the new parliament.
I am Julia…Bishop.
Oh my, yes. However, it really is tribute to the strength of a democracy when there are many different viewpoints expressed and tribute to the strength of government when there is someone who organise them. Truly wonderful, our system. And I also raise my glass to the exceptional individuals who have presided in the Speaker’s chair dutifully and with honour!
Puff
Who’s looking at you then?
Puff
the hynoptic tone of your post gave it away
Ps. I have 2 coco mugs.
Is it mixamatosis or calicivirus for the Rabbot tomorrow?
You are right, Rod.
Turnbull would have made sure the costings were spot on. Its just basic stuff – it makes abbott robb & hockey look like what they are – incompetent.
Turnbull would have got that stuff right.
This political moment – the three independents making their announcements – reminds me strongly of that tantalising and mysterious moment when a jury returns its verdict. I’m thinking in particular of cases (fairly rare) when there is a real level of uncertainty about the likely verdict.
For my sins (though I’m not a lawyer), I’ve sat in on hundreds of jury verdicts and the andrenalin rush just before the jury foreperson read out the verdict never faded.
Usually, on election night, the outcome becomes apparent over a period of time — sometimes a relatively short hour or two; other times over four or five hours. But rarely in elections is there this extraordinary moment that we are likely to witness tomorrow or Tuesday when in the space of a few seconds, we will learn whether it is to be PM Gillard or PM Abbott.
Remarkable really.
Yes you may. As long as you say “negociate” and “Mister Rabbot”
Joffa
Ferrets methinks
I am Julia…Bishop.
And I keep burning two holes in my LCD screen. Damn expensive to replace.
Yes that is what the folders had in them.
ALSO – the term ‘pork’ is used unthinkingly by the media
The Hobart Hospital, for example.
1) Assists all of Tasmania not just Denison
2) Reasonably clear that Tasmania needs a new hospital
I think of pork as an unnecessary football stadium or four lane highway – useful social infrastructure (especially if in areas of under invetsment) is not pork its good public policy.
That’s also what I remember as being reported.
Puff
repeat after me
No. It will be a rabbot trap. One he set himself.
How very appropriate
(Rabbiting trapping takes me back more years then I care to remember)
lol – Send the Ferrets down the Rabbot (Black) hole.
That’s also my recollection.
I recall thinking it all looked a little bit awkward and perhaps tacky, but hardly a mistake.
Ok off to bed for me – country to run tomorrow.
Have to negociate with Independents about shooting Mister Rabbot.
VP
You are correct about what was in those folders
The Fairytale:
Once upon a time there were three bunnies who wanted to take over bunnyland. Mr Rabbott wanted to be boss bunny and began to dig himself a Great Big New Hole suitable to only royal bunnies. He painted it black because he was a black bunny himself and thought he could hide there if he needed to.
His chief courtier bunny was Mr Robberbunny. Mr Robberbunny thought he was very clever with money, deciding that taking from the poor and giving to the rich would make their new court very successful. Mr Robberbunny moved into Mr Rabbott’s Great Big New Black Hole to formulate a plan to get all the lesser bunnies make them the bosses.
His other main courtier, had to change from being Cuddlybunny to Hockerbunny when he realised he’d have to sell his soul to Mr Rabbott if he wanted to be made chief courtier. Once he moved into the Great Big New Black Hole with his two allies, he realised that the Great Big New Black Hole was a lot deeper than he thought. Though he was scared, he couldn’t tell anyone because it’d make him a traitor.
Over time, Mr Rabbott tried to seduce the lesser bunnies into their Great Big New Black Hole with very large juicy carrots, but when the bunnies saw how deep the Great Big New Black Hole was, they ran away and gave their allegiance to the Ms Red Bunny, who promised to give everyone an equal share in their success.
Finally, when Mr Rabbott and his courtiers got desperate and tried to drag some of the other bunnies inside their Great Big New Black Hole against their will, they fell into their own Great Big New Black Hole and were never seen again.
The end.
joffa
me bro kept ferrets
many a time i got nipped after getting out the shower
smelly buggers too
Truer confession, I am that eminent south aussie Al Downer, pretending to be Julie Bishop.
Will Rabbot get caught in the spotlight?
Rabbot was known as Depression food in the 1930′s.
In the 21st century, Rabbot is just depressing.
Hello, friends.
Just watched my recording of Insiders.
Fran’s analysis seems very different to the AM rubbish she spouts.
And may I say bloggers, for how long I have been angry at the failure, later I called stupidity, of Kev to allow the ABC Board to be so structurally undermined.
The only media platform which we should expect to be free of bias and influence.
This has all come about with the aid of a very compliant media of course.
The big lie hasn’t really been one which states the opposition are superior to the ALP. It’s been the one which assumes the opposition are competent, and that the two sides of politics can be appraised on an equal footing. That this has not been the case has been apparent since Abbott took the reins, and obvious at least since their budget reply.
But their base fearmongering and back-of-an-envelope economics have been taken at face value, time and again. They come out with some arrant claim or half-thought-out figures, and the immediate media response is, “How are the ALP going to respond to this??”
You first need to establish that a party is competent – by that I mean not whether they can deliver a program on-budget, or hold the line under critical attack, but the more base-level stuff. Can they come up with a policy position in the first place? When they cost something, do the numbers add up? That sort of thing. If they can’t do that, then they don’t deserve to be taken seriously at all.
The damage is worse than just to the Coalition’s credibility. Because their budget reply – which was just a few negative slogans with some numbers pasted on to it – was uncritically received, that lowered the standard for everyone. It meant that everything the ALP put forward was criticised not in terms of a solid alternative policy, but from an economic limbo where anything was possible. Mining tax? Who cares how it works? – it might harm us through the mining companies… in some way… you know what I mean… Great Big New Tax!! That’s about as sophisticated as that argument got.
And it also encouraged the Coalition to do the same thing when the election came around. It’s easy to be lazy when no-one’s making you work. And virtually nobody in the media was making the Coalition work to present coherent policy.
Basically, a Government can’t fight a scare campaign with facts and figures, not if the basis for the scare campaign is legitimised. In a way, all the ALP could do was hunker down and hope that the fever that gripped the electorate cooled down before the election.
Slogans are great, and the simpler they are the better. But slogans with nothing behind them – at all, as we’re seeing with Abbott now – are very dangerous.
have dolly and golly ever been seen in the same room
at the same time
in the same place
the shadow knows
Certainly hope that whatever it is is more effective than either of those! You wouldn’t believe the number of bunnies running around at present in our neck of the woods on the fringes of Hurstbridge.
He has been there for a while – tomorrow he gets taken out.
A Rabbot killer for certain.
Never kept ferrets.
Older brother shot me in the foot (literally) when spotlighting Rabbits on a property in West Wylong in about 1967.
Haven’t been shooting since (puts you off, getting shot).
I hate you.
the german flag is wrong, that’s the naval jack of imperial germany. the hakenkreuz was compulsory after 1935. and there should be 8 times as many ussr posts. 8 out of 10 german soldiers in wwii were killed by russians.
Had a quick look at longest serving NSW members (given every byelection becomes a federal election for the next few years):
ALP: Banks (Melham since 1990) on 1.5% and likely loss next time if Lib candidate recontests
LIB: Berowra (Ruddock since 1993) on 10%, Mackellar (Bishop since 1994) on 15%, and Warringah (Abbott since 1994) on 13%.
I would guess Melham and Ruddock most likely to retire, Bishop possible, but Tony only if he gets rolled, and even then I think he would hang around a bit….
I have got five in my boot. Always fire up when people mention cruelty, they have never seen a blinded rabbit with myxo blundering into boxthorns.
Joffa
I know of worse
that said spotlighting was fun on the property
more fox and feral cat/dog than natives
also the odd wabbitt
Gold, Jenauthor!
…and the lesser bunnies all lived happily ever after.
Same people who eat slaughtered pig and cow? Maybe baby cow, or feotal cow?
Same people who buy a chook for tea?
Out of sight out of mind for some people I suppose.
Clearly the Nats can’t add up. If you take oakeshotts first term as 1996-1999, the second 1999-2003, the third 2003-2007 and the 4th 2007-2008, then he completed his degree in his 4th term. Whether he did so at public expense – depends how you define the duties of an MP in order to earn their salary. Are they required to attend Parliament at all times it is sitting? Are they required to be in their offices or on electorate duties 9am-5pm Monday to Friday when Parliament is not sitting.
Jen
send that in to the drum etc
pure genius
Grey
I imagine that the country Indeps have an idea.
Gus
Obviously you didn’t have a halfwitted older brother
What i do remember of it was that it was fun.
Wouldn’t that be work-related training & development?
My point, yes.
2473
I think you mean 8 out of 10 German soldiers killed were killed by the USSR. Japan versus China also has lots of modern political significance.
No that is only for $20k research trips overseas at TP expense.
I hope we get some good news tomorrow or Tuesday(assuming you’re not an Abbott supporter) – I could sure use it!
Any leaks or hints?
joff
rod had access to
guns
gelly
flamethrower
gas
he used me as the testing range
one day i will write a book
ps ever been piggging?
Are you picking on meat eaters there Joffa @2478.. ? Feel free to continue
Why? Not necessarily so.
Feel free Gus — I can’t identify myself but you have my permission if you think any of them would be tickled by it.
Ok, to settle this point I’ve gone looking and found some extended footage of the first meeting between Gillard, Swan and the three rural independents.
I think Gillard can be quite audibly heard saying:
But I really don’t want to harp on this point. I only mentioned it in the context of discussing the importance of showing respect and demonstrating integrity when dealing with the independents and how Gillard appears to have mostly got this right, while Abbott has got it wholly wrong.
Only one was a tweet from Rhys Muldoon saying Lib staff had been told that there would be a Labor govt.
What info Muldoon has is unclear. Apart from being Rudd’s mate, i dont know what inside knowledge he has.
jen
we know you are therese
your secrets safe on this blog
Off to bed now — want to get up in time to hear any ‘news’.
I wish Gus — well I wouldn’t mind her bank account anyway!
playschool has deep tendrils
and maybe he looked thru the round window?
Ahh I see i have assumed something untrue.
Nah, never been pigging, scared s.hitless of guns since big brother used me as a target and put a hole in my foot.
I am now one of those city folk who tut tut at such unwarranted machismo
.
Told you before that i wanted to be a Chinese lesbian, not from katter country
Quite right HB. And as a trivial aside, Julia Gillard used an uncharacteristic and rather annoying pattern of speaking that sentence, with rising inflexion at various points, which I suspect reflected a combination of nervousness and fawning:
“I’ve taken the liberTY, of preparing some plans for your individUAL electorATES.”
It was about the time that Wayne Swan did something like a royal curtsy to Bob Katter. It wasn’t a good start but fortunately Labor got on track and Abbott made a total hash of the negociations.
What happens in Poll Bludger stays in Poll Bludger
They taste great!, after you kill them. It’s a process. Think about it.
I’ve just discovered there is a town in the UK called – wait for it
PENISTONE
It even gets a mention in Wikipedia.. ..
A Playschool presenter is suddenly an authority on politics?
God help us!
Joff
rod used me from a young age as target practice
no uber machismo
just a sad phase i was part of
for some it is their daily grind
Is a Saints fan as well and we know everything.
Think he is a poor mans Eric Bana though when it comes to celebrity supporters.
Do you reckon Russell Crowe supports the Rabbot or just the Rabbitohs?
Of course, out the back of Wilcannia – you need a good pig dog though.
Again a long time ago.
Gosh, I would enjoy Phoney losing it completely and whining for the next 3 years, or until Turnball knifes him in the back.
evan
not just any presenter
this is RHYS dude!!!!
Probably has as much authority as any of the overpaid clowns in the commentariat!
Jen #2462
Did the bunnies ever manage to stop the Goats?
Dave
a mate who i aint seen for yonks is a “pigger”
mad bad and dangerous to know
but geez the buggers keep getting bigger
If Labor are to form government as I expect they should create a Regional & Rural Australia Ministry.
I suggest giving it to a rugged male type who grew up in the country (Mike Kelly?). He should turn up to every NBN, GP superclinic, school hall opening etc. in rural areas, even plenty of talking to miners (not mining execs particularly) for the next 3 years. A lot of rural folk mightn’t vote for a ranga city lawyer but they will vote for the nice bloke they met, even above their local member.
Basically a de facto regional PM. Was this what the coalition were trying to achieve with Brough?
Manly got beaten in the NRL today and they only just limped into 8th spot – not a good omen for their No 1 ticket holder.
But then again, the Bulldogs got toweled up by the Pies yesterday.
So that makes Gillard and Abbott both losers for the weekend in the football arena.
went right of PS once it started to get a right wing bias.
Never the same after Benita and Monica left.
oh your old bro is called Rod? Mine is Ron.
Wow spooky hey?
It probably isn’t too bad a bet. You could possibly lay off at $4.50.
Oh, and go the red and whites
Thought the Fibs would have been pro Mason.
and blacks
Joff
Rod is now a straighty one eighty
his missus dont believe one tenth of the stories about him
The stories i could tell
young peter
try for a spread
ie watch the market tighten
when to opt in and out is where the $$$$$$$$$$ exists
Off to bed, all!
See ya tomorrow!
Dave:
ps ever been piggging?
My Mum tells me that as kids on Qld cattle stations there was a bounty on pigs, so her bro’s and her would saddle up the horses, get sawn-off shotguns, gallop up beside the pigs and shoot them in the back of the head while at full gallop. The snouts were taken to collect the bounty. My mother broke-in her own horses when she was seven and she could ride anything. She probably still could now at 74. (never voted anything but Labor in her life, never banked anywhere but commonwealth.)
I have been out in the garden all afternoon – beautiful spring day in Perth – hope all you guys in the winds and storms are okay. Hope tomorrow brings good news. Night PBs.
puff
out west of NSW the mindset is different
one blokes better hal was ten times the shot and a mean one with the knife
needs must!
Great comment, Aguirre @ 2467
And yes,
I, like a lot of others here, felt Abbott was very dangerous for the country and was actually quite upset on polling day thinking he might get in. Fortunately it appears he has now blown it, under pressure not so much from the Labor party but from the rise to power of four independents.
If this is “musical chairs” looks like I’m Bronnie, or Bob Katter.
Joffaboy – people say to me each year “What will you do if the Saints don’t win it?”
To which I reply “Go on as usual – no change to any other year!”
Memo to pica, cfc1892, musrum – About ten years ago I met an old man (in Darwin) who as a teenager had seen all four Collingwood Premierships 1927-1930. He said they were hated, really hated much more than the successful Melbourne teams of the 50s or Hawthorn teams of the 80s. He said it was a visceral, tribal, intersuburban hatred, and because everyone believed that their “patron” was paying the players illegal money on the side (above the 3 pounds a game limit I think). He said that for the Grand Finals every other supporter barracked against Collingwood.
But after this “golden era” of 11 flags 1897-1936, there’s been 3 in 73 years. At 3/4 time in 1937 scores were level, then the Cats kicked away, and it’s never been the same again.
And all the best to everyone flooded out in Victoria – sending you lots of good wishes!
Nite all!
“It was about the time that Wayne Swan did something like a royal curtsy to Bob Katter. It wasn’t a good start……….”
Rather like Kev’s salute to Bush.
I thought it peculiar and it struck me as childish, at its moment.
Then……later.
Hey Puff, she’s a keeper.
So who wants to risk being Kate Ellis?
Crikey
feint praise
Crikey
feint praise
Gus,
But she had a wonderful childhood in outback Qld.
Nowadays Mum doesn’t even like killing a mouse.
TSOP
Finns
Has anyone mentioned yet whether the independents want reform in the media, and especially if any of them would like to stick it to murdoch?
Gusface 2512
Could this be due to “selection pressures” – I mean the bigger ones get away more, so the “herds” as a whole get bigger. Seen a few in Western Queensland, yes, scary!
The Cane Toads in NT are bigger, with longer legs because they were the ones who got there first as they could travel further.
*suddenly wants to give Finns more attention*
PY – I wouldn’t back them with monopoly money if they were $100. At $7’40 they are way, way under what they should be.
Puff
mumma used to hose down bulls fighting in the home paddocks
when we were drenching/emasculating the cattle and horses would go quiet when she showed up with food/drink
she once sorted a pen of young bulls using only a hat
I reckon they were scared she would give em a good tongue lashing
Gus
Your Mum would have made a good Speaker.
Killer bees at 2513
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/windsor-makes-power-play-for-the-bush-20100905-14w2z.html
Just what Windsor has asked for. I’d say Julia might offer the ministry to oakeshott and the three amigos could form the independant rural tail wagging the alp dog.
Looking at what Winsdor has asked for including sensible propositions to review the Henry recomndations and getting Garnaut to update his report might actually result in a considered response to say the mining tax and addressing climate change.
Cant see how Abbott could come close to satisfying these demands but stranger things have happened I suppose.
a bloke i know quite well is living semi type here on the CC
he has some mad pics of tuskers almost level with ute
On the side panels not the back
he has a hise that is easily equal to a big calf
the idea of a razorback aint so far fetched
Great photo of Windsor at the head of that article, gough1.
Puff
mum was in hansard etc alona time ago
on the farm we named the cattle after the current poli’s and sometime friends
we milked ba santamaria nd then margaret g
my bro and i had poddy calfs named rudolf and adolf
guess who was who’s?
I hereby vow to leave the country should Abbott become PM.
alias
he wont
so you sha’nt
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/parliamentary-reform-consensus-evaporates-20100905-14w90.html
And you voted labor….
By this time tomorrow we should have our new government – and if the indies do the right thing (which I suspect they will) it will be a HUGE result for Labor and a crushing blow for the Libs.
Nothing much else has gone right all year, but if Jules pulls this off, it will be the sweetest victory of all. . .
Love your apostrophisation gus.
And have bagged myself a copy of HMS Donovan and am loving that also. Thanks for the tip.
Really, Gusface.
grey
dumb and mad\\voted labor till 1996
then jonny till 2001
da died thereabouts
mum since 2004
labor
I voted labor 2007
afore is no bdys business
Gus,
Hello Rudolph.
#2392 William Bowe
YES.
For the following reasons:-
1. The person posting the entry seems to claim some affinity with the subject matter under discussion.
2. It is not one year wrong but 4 years wrong and takes on significance because:-
a. If correct, it would mean the MP only contested one election as an endorsed Nat candidate. However it was 2.
b. The resignation would have happened before the republic referendum, which is something the poster later suggested was a catalyst for his turning independent (a highly suspect claim in itself)
c. It would have meant the MP spent 10 years in the NSW Parliament as an Independent. He in fact only spent 6 years in the NSW Parliament as an Independent.
3. Matters of opinion can be debated. Erroneous factual matters should not be allowed to stand uncorrected.
4. It was unlikely to have been a mis-type. How could a person have meant to type 2002 but ended up with 1998.
2553
I don`t recall abolishing the secret ballot being one of Howard`s Electoral Act changes.
Anyone have a clue when the indies will speak tomorrow?
Puff
Bingo
Apostrophe Catastrophe!
http://www.apostrophecatastrophes.com/
Redfaced, should be.
Gusface, You are a trooper. Mysay is the next best. Not taking the piss. l Luv your work.
Cheers,
big ears.
Well, i did say he wasn’t a idiot.
last roll of dice for desperate news.com.au
http://www.news.com.au/features/federal-election/fed-up-voters-sick-of-delays-and-call-for-new-election/story-fn5taogy-1225914512127
just give us the TPP from the newspoll!
grey
my say is the collective soul of PB
i bow in her wake
Tomorrow’s OO:
Adelaide Advertiser:
INDEPENDENT MP Bob Katter is unlikely to announce today who he’ll back to form government, with his office stating he has “no press conference scheduled”.
“But today, Mr Katter’s office revealed “Bob has just now advised us that no press conference has been scheduled for this afternoon”.
“Apologies for the ambiguity and thank you all for your patience,” his office said in a statement.”
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-depth/bob-katter-unlikely-to-announce-support-today/story-fn5rizbk-1225914453674
I think we have won. There will be no adulation enough! Go Julia!
And if you thought waiting for the Indis was hell what about Nepal ?:
Reminds me a little of the justification some people give for putting election dodgers in mail boxes marked “NO JUNK MAIL”.
This isn’t junk, this is vital information to enable the resident to exercise her/his democratic duty responsibly
evan14 @ 2514
Technically speaking the Western Bulldogs v Pies clash was Labor v Green , because Collingwood are based in the federal division of Melbourne.
The Manly v Canterbury clash was Lib v Labor, because Canterbury are based in the divison of Watson.
There are still Marxist/Leninist/Maostic parties? What is this thing of following megalomaniac murderers?
“NO JUNK MAIL”.
I can’t put this on my letterbox because I worry that the people who get paid peanuts to deliver them would have to walk further.
I doubt the indies will do anything until they get agreement on the parliamentary reform. And it seems the fibs are dragging feet to buy another day of harassment and intimidation via the media and such.
I think it will be getting pretty anxious for all if they can’t resolve the reform impasse Monday though (including the public – in fact pressure from public to decide might be part of the fibs game plan).
2569
I believe that election material is exempt from anti-junk mail laws.
It’s only history, it get’s rewritten
Often overly simplified quotes by dumb, sexist d1ckheads.
There are anti-junk mail laws? I don’t suppose the regulation exempting election material was written by a politician ?
I just cannot believe the Rabbott is now claiming that he’s got a right to rule because “the two-party-preferred vote had put the Coalition ahead 50.01 to 49.99″ ?
So on that logic, is Tone now also saying that his mentor Howard had no claim to form government in 1998 because Howard was nearly a full percentage point behind Beazley in the 2 PP vote ?
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/coalitions-hopes-for-power-sink/story-fn59niix-1225914518934?from=public_rss
2577
I believe No Junk Mail signs have some legal standing. A law written by a politician? Surely you jest!
http://www.news.com.au/features/federal-election/kevin-rudds-wife-therese-rein-helps-labor-rein-in-bob-katter/story-fn5taogy-1225914513733
Now THAT is People Skills
Well that’s it for me – the “morning” media was not worth waiting for. In fact the two most interesting things I learned were ETA (Euskara- Basque Separatists) is calling a truce with Spain, and Belgium is in danger of splitting into French and Flemish sections.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-OoIvgtuzs
Frank
from link
You would think, if the fibs have the Indies in the bag wouldn’t the fibs sign off and get them to announce it asap?
Dealing with the indies – please make it so
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1s-l632F-tE&feature=related
I think we’ll have to thank the Libs for their undue hubris and bully-boy tactics for delivering government back to Labor.
If that’s what happens…
PS lol@souffs
Coorangamite
still listed by AEC as only th doubt , looked like a Lib gain a week ago thus giving Abbott Govt but absentee , prov , pre poll , and postals since not as bad for Lab as could been But now one can say finally its a labour hold
ALP now lead by 765 votes , with all absentes and pre polls is now counted , 189 prov still to go , and all postals counted But it is possible a max of 1298 potentail Postals not received by AEC may hav got deliverd to AEC by last Frid cut off date
However th most votes to be still counted is 1487 even if all 1298 not yet received postals came in and even if they were all were formal , and even then th Libs need 76% of them all incl prov’s vs 56.5% postal (and 53% prov) they been getting to win this Seat So put away glasses Coornagamite cannt be lost even though everyone seemed to somehow tink it was already won , it wassn’t
Thanks Ron.
Frank and others from the link
“Mr Katter was hoping to make his decision public late yesterday and was said to be getting frustrated by his colleagues’ delay.
“I am locked in right where I was from the start,” Mr Katter said. “For me this about the survival of the people I represent.”
Let’s hope that’s “locked in right” to lock left
Whatever the papers may be saying, ’tis wholly conjecture.
There is no new news.
We must wait the hours.
McLeay’s resignation may have been a beat up.
AN audit of NSW MPs’ internet usage that prompted the resignation of a cabinet minister ranked the news and information portal news.com.au as the most visited “adult website”.
Legislative Council president Amanda Fazio yesterday revealed the audit incorrectly classified the website as “adult” because it contained links or advertisements to adult matchmaking sites — not pornography.
She said smh.com.au was also classified as an adult site since it advertised RSVP, a dating website it owns.
“The definition of what has been classed as an adult site is something we’re reviewing,” she said. “What surprised us . . . the biggest (site) of what is classed as an adult site being hit by the parliament is the news.com.au site.
“Because there are adult match-making links or ads on their site, every time someone accesses news.com.au and they go from one article to another, that’s counted as an individual hit on an adult site.”
Bobby Katter has been totaly mis read here , he is th LAST of Labor’s worrys of 3 Undys
He’s an old style agric socialist Country Party guy , and NBN is his and his voters cup of tea And he gets over last bit of line on Labor prefs vs Nats , so suport for Labor in idealogicol on NBN , politcal votes with Labor prefs and roll out voter benefits no problam
Without th mighty Conroy’s NBN he would go safe backing Libs and Abbott even with 11 bill black hole (an issue espec for Oakshott)
Katter is econamicly illerate eg on currency & tarrifs but who cares ! , Labor wont do either anyways and he knows it but thats a sop to his voters & they love it , and his texas hat
Ron @ 2590
Respect the spell check, dude.
Frankie V what are you on? Are you stuck in some sort of a rut? Ron is the spell check!
Windsor seems to be getting very solid in his dislike of coalition tactics.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-election/abbott-losing-his-grip-on-the-house-of-windsor-20100905-14w4b.html
Oh dear, for the newcomers, they should respect the legend of wRONg and the Amigos on PB. As the custodian of wRONg, they just have to ask this Amigo. Cheers.
Does’t sound to me as tho Windsor is in the bag after his talk with Fran Kelly at 6am today.
He wants a place in PMO especially for regional pork and when Kelly asked if Abbott’s comment about the Coalition being able to provide the most country unified, etc. Govt. he said Abbott would be in trouble down the track if he failed to provide it.
Said 75-75 is a problem so he needs to speak with the other 2 to see what is going on in Canberra. If they split then we may have to go back to the polls because he wants stable govt. for 3 years.
Did anyone else hear and did it sound the same way.
Gee, like i said previously, the Undies are giving more come-ons to Labor than the girls at Patpong Bangkok. No wonder Abbott and his 40 thieves are getting jealous.
The report earlier on Breakfast didn’t sound at all as if Windsor was going to support Coalition – quite the opposite – I think the Undies are just having a bit of fun with the media & have already decided to back ALP, but that’s only my opinion.
BH, like they say in that classic song: “Many a tears has to fall, but it’s all in the game”
Dr Bogan – I hope you’re right. I must have been listening with my ‘scared’ hat on.
Finns – used to love that song and I don’t want any tears today. BTW – your sister has a beautiful voice and the video was lovely. The photos were just brilliant. Well done.
[Oh dear, for the newcomers, they should respect the legend of wRONg and the Amigos on PB. As the custodian of wRONg, they just have to ask this Amigo. Cheers.][
Finns - we've had a lot of fun with that over the years, haven't we?
Hope Amigo Vera is punching through her treatment. Bad luck about the Bunnies for her so hope the Swannies give her a bit of cheer again next week.
Hearing RadioNat. Fran.
Windsor sounds quite wrecked and exhausted.
Not the buoyant person of Thursday.
No doubt getting heavy weather from his electorate, his conscience.
Got a bad feeling.
crikey whitey – pessimistic me felt the same. He’s going to give Abbott every chance to get across the line.
I can’t believe that after the costings debacle and that woeful article Abbott wrote yesterday that Windsor would think Abbott would lead a decent Govt. Windsor still says none of that counts. I’ll start to doubt that Windsor has ethics soon.
BH, yes we did and still do. I just hope all the newcomers dont take things too seriously with us the old hands. We simply like Mickeys.
My heart thinks of Amigo Vera all the time.
I was referring to a news report rather than the interview which has not yet been on here in slow Boganville, but I’m still very optimistic
BH, the Undies know it is either 77 or the bush (read new election). So which way do you think they will jump? Especially, the lovely Theresa has been softened them up.
I will listen to the interview when it’s on here. But I do think the Undies are enjoying playing with the medai – remember bot W & O had a go at the media at the Press Club do & K was clearly sick of the media clutter yesterday.
Well if nothing else the reporters are feeling the Indies are leaning closer to Labor: “Abbott loses his grip on house of Windsor”
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/abbott-losing-his-grip-on-the-house-of-windsor-20100905-14w4b.html?autostart=1
I think the Libs have been a bit silly trying to bully the Indies their way. The mere fact that they left the Nats to become independents in the first place shows they don’t like being bullied.
oops media
I think the Indies have also done the maths that under an Abbott government, they would face a DD in 12 months as soon as the new Senate sits. So there is a rational self interest argument for the Indies to support Labor. This is as long as they can be seen to “win” for their electorate, otherwise they know they would lose their seats.
He could ethically go with either side.
Dr Bogan – it was the first RN interview after the news at 6am here. Let’s know what you think please.
Same here Finns and I miss her quick quips – she can land a blow with just a couple of funny words.
Heard of some strange poll this morning for Parker? about a majority wanting to go back to the polls. Looks like every man and his dog will be polling from now on? Is there money in it?
oh dear, now News Ltd knows that Abbott will not get in. Now they are pushing for new election, how stupid can you get:
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/voters-would-prefer-second-election-poll-20100906-14wb4.html
BH than I missed it probably as I was in the shower then. I’ll check transcript later today, meanwhile off to work to finish an article before class at 10
Still.
It’s early in the morning, the sun is rising. The light is enchanting.
Rain. Wow. How amazing.
It will be fine.
Dr. Bogan, teach the parents well. The children can tell.
Ted Mack on AM says the 3 indies will go Labor.
Finns
As you point to that article, it truly is News Unlimited.
It reads so like the Last Chance Corral.
Warren Entsch saying nice things about Katter….not
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/coalitions-hopes-for-power-sink/story-fn59niix-1225914518934
Who is Ted Mack and is he credible?
The editorial in the New England’s regional paper, the Northern Daily Leader says:-
Punters predict Labor support
Unless he is somebody the indies personally confide in, it really doesn’t matter how credible he is.
ltep 2618
Ted Mack was the member for North Sydney before Sloppy Joe. Most people would consider him one of the most ethical persons to have graced parliament.
As to what he knows now… who knows? Given his reputation I’d say it is a sound view.
It is not the first time you have mentioned this bloke, ltep.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ted_Mack_(politician)
a. Who? – The only MP known to have retired consecutively from parliament in order to avoid becoming qualified for a “pension”.
b. Credible?- Better ask him about that.
Anyway.
Speak later.
Must listen in to the radio.
Oh FFS!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/09/06/3003231.htm?section=justin
Independent MP Tony Windsor says a decision on which party will form government is unlikely to be made today.
PY, I give the ed of New England’s regional paper an honesty award for this:
Ted Mack is spruiking good sense.
Ted Mack lost a lot of respect in this household with his behaviour around the push for the republic.
Saw him talking at a debate on the republic and it became obvious
i. he was purely a populist – would say what he thought people wanted to hear regardless (a fair bit of walking two sides of barbed wire fences)
ii. he promised that if people voted against the republic, he would personally be lobbying to ensure another referendum happened within a couple of years.
Arrived at the debate wanting to hear him and having him as a bit of an idol; left deciding he was just another politician.
Very much the position with the three indies in Vic in 1999; Labor as a party worked to keep them in their sits as long as possible.
itep:
I assumes PBers have some knowledge of politics in Australia.
ltep – I am most surprised you have never heard of Ted Mack. He is sometimes called the *father of the independents* (ie modern day independents).
He represented my electorate but retired and unfortunately we ended up with idiot hockey.
You have no doubt googled him by now etc
Yes. That’s a point I’ve been trying to make for quite a while. I’m surprised that it hasn’t been picked up by the media over the last couple of weeks.
They never forgot anything, and they never learned anything …
as that greatest of all political survivors Talleyrand (1754-18380 said of France’s Bourbon royal family.
Thanks all. Age showing a bit. I’ve heard of him but he’s a bit before my time of focus.
Shame we won’t necessarily get a result today. Feels like the election was months ago already
.
Hehe, this tweet from Bernard Keane made me chuckle
Looks like no more than 48 hours now.
zoomster
Yes, and our darling Sophie was another one of those “If you want to vote for a Presidennt, then vote NO at this referendum” – We’re still waiting for that vote dears!
And, zoomster, if Julia follows the Bracks model, Labor is likely to continue to work on a similar basis with them after a new election, even if their support’s no longer necessary.
Ironic that, if they do back Julia, Rudd’s rapport with all three is likely to have been a deciding factor.
#2628
Ted Mark has taken a pork based approach in making his prediction for 3-0 to Labor.
They call a spade a spade in the country!
Last line of Northern Daily Leader editorial today(Tamworth)
http://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/news/opinion/editorial/general/punters-predict-labor-support/1932949.aspx
Yes, and Kennett and his mates had treated Russell Savage (ind.Mildura 1996-2002) very badly in his first term because he had “stolen” a coalition seat!
Yesterday some here gave us the famous Edmund Burke quote
There is an article in the OO this morning by a professor of Public Administration at the University of Queensland which is based on this quote. Or should I say on the first half of the quote. He omits the second half starting with ["But his unbiased opinion...]
All this in the cause of arguing that obedience to the voters dictates that the Independents must go for Abbott. Shameful.
Mack is much better known in NSW than the rest of Australia. The substantial majorities that Labor held during his time in Federal office rendered him much less relevant to process than the current three. In NSW Indis were flavuor of the month when he was in state parliament and he was seen as their “leader”. Elsewhere he is probably best known for removing litter bins from the street when he was ayor of North Sydney.
And the CLP member can’t guarantee to always support Tony either.
http://www.ntnews.com.au/article/2010/08/31/175921_ntnews.html
As someone who was concerned about the possible impact of the deal Labor did with the Greens, these statements comfort me somewhat.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/09/06/3003231.htm
I was hoping this would be the attitude of the Indies.
#2640
As to succumbing to a fit of lunacy…I suggest there is a 33% chance. IMHO one of them is in a permanent state of lunacy.
I would just like to note the superb display of disaster prepearedness and recovery underway in Christchurch at the moment.
Building standards (+luck) has kept deaths to zero.
The community has pitched in and eveyone is staying with friends and families. There are relief centres set up but no-one is needing them.
An immediate assessment of all damaged building has been done. Therer are processes in place to carry out more thorough assessments. Already 90% of homes have had water reconnected. People who need cash are able to get it.
The mayor is on top of things. The PM is on tops of things. Note to Kevin Rudd: The cabinet is meeting tomorrow to ensure that all ministries are working together effectively in the relief effort.
Well done NZ.
Perhaps even the $1.5Bn rebuilding effort might provide a jolt to the economy. Thats a lot of building work in small place.
That truly is appalling. One hopes he doesn’t treat his students with such selective contempt. The second (omitted ) part of the quotation is one of most frequently cited whenever the nature of representative democracy is discussed and so clearly relevant to the current situation that its neglect can only be due to a deliberate , and rather crude, piece of partisanship.
Rocket Rocket,
The option to cross the floor I believe is important. I would prefer that the ALP also allowed this.
In this case though, it weakens, ever so slightly, the stability of a potential ABbott minority govt.
And that surprises you?
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/informal-vote-may-have-cost-labor-seats-20100903-14ts3.html
Interesting read about the number of informal votes cast.
My member Jamie (Mr Slippery) Briggs on Agenda this morning. All bile and BS!
If you want read the article I referred to here it is
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/commentary/on-all-counts-coalition-deserves-independents/story-e6frgd0x-1225914501944
IF JG does gain a minority AND IF TA stays on as opposition leader, I would hope that Jamie Briggs gets promoted to Finance Minister.
He is financially literate and was the ONLY LP committee person who asked sensible questions of Treasury in Budget Estimates.
Great disappointment for those who have taken the day off school/work to learn of the outcome.
Oakeshott says “at best” 24 hours. I have a nagging feeling it will be Wednesday.
And also Malcolm Turnbull should be promoted to the new roving Ministry of “Suave and Sophistication”.
In this role he can travel the Countryside, attend booklaunches and cocktail parties and quote Yeats till his heart is content. In this role he will get a permanent role on Q+A. He will also be sponsored by Apple and roadtest the next iPhone and iPad for the Australian public.
His performance indicator will be a 10% increase in the number of Shakespeare quotes retweeted by Australians.
And what job could we assign to the lovely Sophie M?
It doesn’t surprise me that the Oz would run such a piece. It does surprise me that a Professor of Public Administration would so recklessly put his reputation at risk in a situation where he would obviously be publicly “caught out”.
Perhaps UQ’s Public Administration department doesn’t have any reputation to defend? No doubt he’s hoping for a spot on the ABC board if he can help get Abbott over the line, following on the heals of other “luminaries” like Brunton and Windschuttle.
Sophie M will be given an incredible important role. Her role will be to spend three years studing climatology. She will then write a thesis examinig the evidence behind the claims of the various climate skeptics. Once completed she will tour the Liberal party branches giving presentations to the LP brnach members about her findings.
I wish they would make up their minds!, it’s driving me crazy, I am such a tragic.
Oh well better get ready for work then…
Yes Gweneth, I think I’ll go into political hibernation for the morning and go and cut up some firewood. Hopefully I can re-engage later in the day and see some good news – but I’m not holding my breath.
well there was rumours that Mr. Wilkie would hold off another day and he didnt
In the new Abbott Opposition Ministry I would also like Senator Abetz to be made Minister for Ensuring the Separation of Church and State.
One of the problems for the country Independents relying on the Burke quote as justification for their action is that their consistent mantra has been ” I am not beholden to a party. I do not follow the dictates of the party. I represent you and do what you want ” .
To now follow the Burke dictum of using “wisdom” – takes them away from their central theme of voting according to the electorates wishes. No doubt this is causing them some angst.
Who will the actual minister be? I’d prefer action now, rather than sometime down the track, if the Liberals ever get elected again.
More seriously, I still despair over the lack of long term strategic planning and investment Australia is doing in relation to defence.
I think either potential government should create a mulit-party bi-partisan committee for Australia’s long-term strategic defense outlook. It should include the ALP/Lib leaders, treasurers, defence ministers and foreign ministers. The Greens/Indies should also share an observer seat.
The Defence White Paper was prologue to the real decisions. This discussion needs to be had.
With everything that’s happened over the past couple of weeks this really shouldn’t be a difficult decision for men of honour and integrity.
Why don’t they just get on with it?
I suspect it’s called playing poker.
They don’t want to say they were either rushed or bullied into a decision.
They also want to alloww the public to digest the situtation. I agree it has probably gone on a day or two. But we are not party to these discussions and there is probably a bit more arm twisting going on yet.
The thing which is clear the longer they leave it to make a decision the more pissed off the community is getting.
That’s not my personal view it is just what I’m hearing from talking to people.
morning bludgers
apparently Oakshott has said that it is very close to an agreement re Parliamentary reforms. The Libs have issues with a couple of matters, but he is hopeful it will be sorted out. This may be reason for delay. Also, funeral for fallen soldier is scheduled for Wednesday. Therefore, a decision is likely by tomorrow at latest.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/gillard_finally_has_incumbency/
Mumble on newspoll
blue_green, yes it looks like the newspoll asked who people voted for on election day, not who they would have voted for last week
Victoria,
the libs will not agree to those reforms at all. they include enhrining the ‘pairing’ system and quarantining one person from each party for the speakership.
It reduces the libs chance of mayhem agaisnt a ALP minority so they won’t allow it.
blue-green
Mumble is right about Julia. She has certainly behaved in a Prime Ministerial way since the election, whereas the Rabbott has been appalling.
blue-green
I just heard excerpt of Oakshott’s comments on radio. He said Libs are almost there. Agreement is 95% of the way done. If what you say is correct, what happens next?
Victoria,
She definitley is a better negotiator.
Wow, the “prof” from QLD who wrote that article in the OO:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/commentary/on-all-counts-coalition-deserves-independents/story-e6frgd0x-1225914501944
is way out on a limb. To make public statements that are so loaded with language that reeks of negative connotations, and to make some obviously silly statements about how preferences arent a reflection of voters true intentions, well, it shows that whats speaking is his political bias, rather than his academic expertise.
There are some good academics in our Universities. Unfortunatley there are also some seatwarmers like this. Bit like the parliment i guess.
blue-green
Julia the negotiator, and Abbott the bullyator!
why do they have to ask the libs if julia agrees to it.
Ah, Haydn, this is another of those legacies of Q 1987-96 – the last years of Q’s National Party ascendancy, the Fitzgerald RC, the Goss government and Wayne G’s appointment of a certain K Rudd as his senior PS. Note that Ken W is UQ’s J. D. Story Professor of Public Administration!
In part, it’s also related, in a different way, to the power “play” (many would say intense rivalry for “most influential”) between UQ’s venerable & QUT’s new & aggressively progressive Graduate School of Management (adjacent to Q’s Parliamentary & Public Administration centres & very close to Bris’s business centre) during the same period. Its Friday lunchtime for a (which I regularly attended, as they were critical to what I taught) attracted big audiences at which those connected with Fitzgerald Report’s implementation (inc Peter Beattie) & Goss’s public administration (inc Kev Rudd) regularly appeared.
The Q 1987-96 era, like the Whitlam Era (1972-75) was so dynamic, and those closely connected with it – like Beattie and Rudd – had such an impact on public admin (& PS), business, legal and academic communities that its influence still colours attitudes. Had Beattie and Rudd quietly ridden off into the sunset, the era’s influence would have diminished, but they became Q Premier & Oz’s Prime Minister; the latter deposed in a way, and for reasons very similar to his role in the Goss government’s demise – guaranteed to reawaken memories of that era.
i still think it may be to day
Vic 2678
No agreement on the parly reforms then. I read some comments by Pyne saying that they wont agree to those points. The ALP plus indies could pass them anyway. (I think that procedure for each house only need to be passed by that house. ie its none of the senates business what protocols the house of reps devise for themselves)
Its pretty amazing negotiation skills by the indies if they can get agreement out of both parties but only grant govt to one.
my say
does your clairvoyant friend have an opinion about a decision?
blue-green
If the indies can’t get agreement from the Libs re Parliamentary reforms, will they still make decision in next few days?
yes
Looking forward to today being the end of is she or is he.
Yesterday afternoon someone I think it may have been scarpat, posted a link to a New York Times article on Murdochs News Corp hacking scandal in England. It’s truly an eye opener and its makes the PB’ers who have been complaining about News Limited in Australia look to be on the right side of the argument.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/05/magazine/05hacking-t.html
my say
what does your friend think? Can you tell us?
Abbott is masterly as raising ther publics ire. He did it over the ETS, batts, BER etc.
That this was his strategy for the Indies was a miscalculation of the charecter of the Indies.
(I may yet be proved wrong but I doubt it)
blue-green
I am trusting that the indies certainly are made of steel, and not fall for Rabbott’s bullyboy tactics.
Finns
There is a certain quite humorous irony to Ron referring to someone as illiterate though.
I am getting rather paranoid now, the libs are almost there?. I am off to a desolate island. No, wait, I could just stay here.
I think the parli reforms the indies want are largely sepearate to ‘forming’ govt decision.
JG has already said yes. TA has said, yes but.
If TA doesnt agree, it wont change their timing.
You dont run and win as an independent against the nats and not be made of steel. Remember if these Indies didnt exist the coalition could expend the $ and effort against the ALP in other seats instead.
The vitriol chucked against these guys must be extraordinary.
BK 2658
Minister/Shadow Minister for the Monarchy
(about time they got their own portfolio!)
No Grey. The indies and the coalition are ‘almost there’ on parly reforms. This is a noegotation process seperate to govt forming.
The ALP and the Indies have already agreed on parly reforms.
The staffers in the indies offices must be doing serious overtime. I would like to buy them all a drink or some chocolates.
Re the professor of Public Admin writing in the OO, I posted the following comment
grey, don’t worry, Oakeshott was just saying the Libs are 95% of the way to argreeing to the Parliamentary reforms thats all.
The Amigos spoke to Ted Mack about what to do so he has a better idea than most about what they’ll do.
That is one of the problems with this taking so long; it delegitimises whoever gets in.
Diog
Parker and Partners are a Lib aligned PR group.
Perhaps Marry in haste, repent at leisure Darn?
Thank you blue_green and madcyril, this whole thing is doing my head in. Too much passion.
Not true of Vic 1999′s result, Dio. It took a month for the Indies to decide to back Bracks, and the ALP’s been in power since then!
Sky have just announced they expect Katter to make an announcement re his decision today, while I hold no brief for Sky, they seem to have close ties with Katters office.
Maybe just a ploy to keep viewers watching all day, but thats what was said.
This could take a while to answer.
First I’ll have to make a friend.
OzPol, yes. Although I would add that they were waiting for a by-election to occur before they made their decision. As soon as the by-election occured (a month after the election) they made up their minds.
bg
I thought they probably were but it doesn’t change the fact that the longer this goes on for, the less legitimate the new Govt looks. It’s going to be hard enough already.
The thing about these Indies achieving so much reform is effectively delegitimising the Nats as best representing the bush.
No wonder the Nats are p_ssed.
It seems the Libs haven’t even tried to get the Indies on side since the election?
They have rolled out some pork al la Wilkie – but no apple-sauce i.e nothing more substantial.
I think ‘kindler and gentler’ Abbott hasn’t been trying.
Apart from jumping up and down talking about mandates and hassling the indies, they haven’t done a think.
Diog,
I am not sure that people are paying that much attention. I dont think the feelings are that strong either way. The newspoll was very telling though.
The Fairytale (remix):
Once upon a time there were three bunnies who wanted to take over bunnyland. Mr Rabbott wanted to be boss bunny and began to dig himself a Great Big New Hole suitable to only royal bunnies. He painted it black because he was a black bunny himself and thought he could hide there if he needed to.
His chief courtier bunny was Mr Robberbunny. Mr Robberbunny thought he was very clever with money, deciding that taking from the poor and giving to the rich would make their new court very successful. Mr Robberbunny moved into Mr Rabbott’s Great Big New Black Hole to formulate a plan to get all the lesser bunnies make them the bosses.
His other main courtier, had to change his name from being Cuddlybunny to Hockerbunny when he realised he’d have to sell his soul to Mr Rabbott if he wanted to be made chief courtier. Once he moved into the Great Big New Black Hole with his two allies, he realised that the Great Big New Black Hole was a lot deeper than he thought. Though he was scared, he couldn’t tell anyone because it’d make him a traitor.
But Mr Rabbott could only get half the bunnies to support him. Over time, Mr Rabbott tried to seduce the lesser bunnies into their Great Big New Black Hole with very large juicy carrots.
Mr Rabbott offered Andybunny the biggest bunch of carrots he ever saw. But when he looked around, he saw that lots of the other bunnies would starve if he took all the carrots but when he saw how deep the Great Big New Black Hole was, he ran away and gave his allegiance to the Ms Red Bunny, who promised to give everyone an equal share in their success.
Finally, when Mr Rabbott and his courtiers got desperate and tried to drag some of the other big bunnies inside their Great Big New Black Hole against their will, they fell into their own Great Big New Black Hole and were never seen again.
And all the bunnies lived happily ever after.
The end.
#2670
If we had wanted to get this over and done with quickly, we could have conducted a pork&policy auction in an auction room televised to the nation.
Perhaps that would have been considered crass.
By conducting negotiations in secret, with lots of tooing and frooing over an extended period of time there are some advantages:-
a. You extract something out of the “loser” which would not have been possible if a decision had been made quickly. So when the “winner’ delivers a brand new highway to your electorate, the “loser” cannot complain of pork barrelling, because you just say Shut up you mug, you thought the project was worth spending $1million on, the government are delivering a superior model for just $1.2 million.
b. When the “loser” opposes some policy, you say Sit down you idiot, you agreed with the general thrust and the basics of this policy, but this version is better because it has bells and whistles attached
c. As time runs on, the contestants become hungrier and each are prepared to offer more pork&policy, increasing the bidding pressure.
d. The bidding war can be spun as a “dignified process” – which is in deep contrast to an open auction.
e. You hold the upper hand. You can release details (after the event) at opportune times of the “offers” that had been made to you, to paint the “offeror” as desperate for power and prepared to stoop to pork-barrelling – but still retain your own virtuosity (without a hint of being a pork&policy seeker).
I am surprised the Nats dont have a revitalsing rural and regional Australia prospectus already written up. If they did they could lay it out in front of the indies; all costed and all thought out.
They could then enter the public debate with great effect.
We could be talking about the issues that would make the indies back one side over another, rather than the politcs.
Prediction – either
Katter for ALP first (75) then Oak follows then Windsor abstains
Katter for ALP first (75) then Oak and Windsor abstain
Windsor for LIB first then Katter for ALP in reaction to jubilation from LIBS – OAK abstains
All promise to abstain
WHAT SCENARIO gives LNP a majority?
Brain hurts
A theory on the delay.
Could it be that the indies want to lock Abbott into agreeing that both the government and the opposition will play a part in providing the speaker, so that he can’t back out if he doesn’t get the nod..
It would be sensible politics on their part.
Could it also be that Abbott is determined not to agree to it – as another commenter has suggested – so that he can play funny buggers if he loses.
Jenauthor _brilliant as always
Are you OK for me to publish on my BLOG – with attriubution of course – does jenauthor protect you and your OH sufficiently
This doesn’t look promising for an announcement today.
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/one-may-have-to-compromise-windsor-20100906-14wfk.html
FCOL
][One of the three rural independents may have to compromise and back their least favoured political party in the interests of stable government, Tony Windsor says.]
But sounds good for us
Katter doesn’t have a least favourite so its not him
Oak similar
This means Windsor is going ALP for stability
Certainly VP but you need to change a word … (hate mistakes ….) just change the but, to and in the paragraph below.
Don’t forget that the person most people believe to have been deeply concerned in it is now PM Cameron’s Minder (a few days ago I saw an article on this in BBC/London papers on line.) Makes one wonder who Tone’s is, and Palin’s.
Where’s James Bond when we need him?
Diogs,
Don’t know what you’re whingeing about. Confusion and indecision are the hallmarks of a hung Parliament. You’ve got what you advocated for and will now have to live with the consequences.
Poor you.
Publish it, I will give it to my nephews and nieces as a political primer. lol
I think that statement means me to back ALP in the name of stability
For what it is worth, I now think Windsor is the most likely to go with labor and would only consider not doing so if the other two back the Libs. .
Darn@2717
Yes. Although I think, after the ETS, there is nothing the Libs sign up for that they wont renege on as soon as they can.
I’m predicting the Speaker reforms will not get up (because it is a negative for the Coalition in Opposition). One of the Amigos will fall on their sword and get dragged to the chair.
GG
We all had to make our minds up two weeks ago. This lot still say they haven’t worked out who to back. There gets to be a point where indecision just becomes dithering.
dogma – thanks for that link re News of the World. So it looks as tho Murdoch press may have links through Scotland Yard as well. A cosy arrangement for nooslimited.
It’s about due process, due diligence, due dithering
OT…I note that the Christchurch earthquake was a magnitude 7.1; Haiti earthquake was 7.0 with c230,000 dead…
madcyril
Maybe the Newspoll result could substitute for Vic’s by-election?
I don’t know & with my record in picking what decisions will be made, I’m trying to stay in “objective analysis” mode.
Diogs,
This is the world you espouse. Enjoy your monster Dr Frankenstein.
I think you’re right about the delay being about getting Abbott to agree over the speaker reforms.
I would like to think you are right VP. But I fear Windsor may be the Labor man and may be flagging his own willingness to go along with the other two in the interests of stability. Personally, I find it very disappointing that even one of them would consider backing the Libs after the costings charade and the question mark over Crook.
And we didn’t did we. So the indies have to for us. I say let them think long and hard. The fact that these “country” indies are thinking long and hard shows that they’re not going to go with their natural conservative tendencies IMHO. Not an easy thing to do.
The way I read it the Indies are waiting to get those reforms signed off by the Coalition before announcing their position.
But why would the Coalition sign up for something they feel isn’t in their best interest if the Indies are indicating they won’t support them? I have a feeling Abbott is stringing it out.
Here’s a theory on what the three independents might do to protect themselves to some extent:
Let’s say when they show their hands to one another, they are split. So they say: “Let’s keep the vote completely confidential, but given the way our split vote has fallen we will go with party X (insert winning party)”.
That way, it’s a bit like the firing squad when one shooter fires with a blank. No one outside the three would ever know which way each of the three voted in their private meeting, and that would include their own electorates.
I realise this pre-supposes a level of confidentiality that is rare in politics but each would have fairly solid motives to keep mum. Katter could be a problem though.
trawler,
The Lib strategy to date has been “Give it to me”. Their reaction afterwards if they lose will be, “If we can”t have it, we’ll spoil it for everybody else”.
I think Oakeshott is backing Labor and Windsor and Katter want to go with Coalition but this would cause a deadlock. Hence Windsor is dropping hints Oakeshott might need to join them and support the Coalition.
Whatever decision the indies make they are going to have to be open and honest and make it very clear why they made their decision(s). Their reputations depend on it.
Looks like the Ruddster has been playing a blinder!
[KEY independent Bob Katter spent hours in the Canberra home of Kevin Rudd and Therese Rein as the battle to win his support continues.
The three Queenslanders reminisced about when the Kennedy MP was a state Opposition MP and Mr Rudd worked for Queensland Premier Wayne Goss.
"Even Therese has been there. But I have been quite genuinely surprised at the intensity of [Mr Rudd],” Mr Katter said.]
GG
I’m looking forward to it. I just wish I knew what it was.
I think the most likely scenarios will be 1, 2 or 3 indies side with Labor and the remaining ones if any will abstain.
Can’t see Oakeshotte not going to Labor unless in the final event he sees that as being in his best interest locally – but I doubt it.
Still wondering about Katter – ETS, carbon tax, mining tax.
Windsor is plain inscrutible. Yes he’s done a lot of thinking. Yes, logic dictates that if its all about policy Labor wins hands down. But still wondering what it meant when he went back home on the weekend. I’d put him more likely than not to go with Labor.
One thing I am sure of is either they’ll all go Labor or, if there is dissent it’ll come in the form of abstaining on no confidence. That way they get their stable government.
Even one going to Labor gives Labor 75 to 73 on supply and no confidence. Ordinary legislation was always going to have to take its chances.
Diogs,
It will be a prevaricators paradise.
Well, in the space of about 5 postings here we have KOW aligned and unaligned to different parties. Someone will be right. Ie no-one knows.
Clearly they are both Communists!
ltep,
Wasn’t it one of the Independents leaked The Big Hole in Coalitions costings?
OzPol, I too am trying to stay in “objective analysis” mode. I’m fighting myself so as to not give into my natural pessimism
Victoria in 1999 was a pretty unique situation with the supplementary by election being held a month after the General Election. So yes it’s hard to find an equivalent event in the current situation.
He went home for his mother’s 93rd birthday.
Gary,
We need a plot turn if this show is to run another season.
Laocoon 2732
You are not the only person to note that about the Christchurch quake – from an engineering POV, it was actually a pretty good outcome. Plenty of brick and masonry facades have come down, but this is not surprising – brick and stone is brittle and doesn’t handle earthquakes well. There have been no obvious structural collapses of building frames hence nobody buried. That reflects pretty well on the engineers and builders of Christchurch. This quake was not as severe as the Chile one, but it was nearby, shallow, and long lasting, which normally means severe damage.
Our office in Christchurch has been disturbed but is still structurally sound, safe to occupy, and IT and power are still working! There is a lot fo disturbance and stuff strewn everywhere, but they should be back in business by Wednesday and are already out helping Council do structural inspections. Well done Kiwis!
Depressingly, that’s my read on it too.
Oakeshott has been talking about this as well
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/special-reports/key-mps-say-theyd-back-least-favoured-party-to-form-stable-government/story-fn5ko0pw-1225914626504
ah ok jen.. cool
Any news on the Victorian Senate count ?
Patrick @2753, the fact that all three of them can only guarantee the barest of majorities for the libs but any number of combinations can give Labor a 2, 3 or 4 seat advantage, must figure into this
GG
I think we’re about to jump the shark.
#2754
Interesting. IF we assume as many posters have, that Oakeshott is leaning Labor and Windsor coalition, and Katter says he changes his mind every 15 minutes, it may be that Katter is the one that effectively determines the government of Australia.
As to who the government will be, I guess it depends on which 15 minute cycle Katter is in at the time he is required to announce his decision.
All this gloomy talk about W&K leaing Coalition and therefore O has to switch his vote from Labor to Coalition – it’s no more than edgy tea-leaf reading correct? Is there any more substance to it than that?
[last roll of dice for desperate news.com.au
http://www.news.com.au/features/federal-election/fed-up-voters-sick-of-delays-and-call-for-new-election/story-fn5taogy-1225914512127
We should have a poll “after” the indies have made a decision, that would indicate how many people realised the had been conned by Abbott!.
From Alan Mitchell in the AFR today, writing about EU debt issues:
Can I ask, what is the basis of the view that Windsor is leaning towards the Coalition?
Diogs,
They’d be mostly “Bull” sharks.
BH
It was an eye opener wasn’t it and New Scotland Yard have alot to answer to. Why didn’t they find out the extent of hacking done by news corp, why didn’t they tell those people affected. Why if they’re paying out millions of dollars in compensation, are they claiming it was a one off thing with the Royals.
For those who haven’t seen it and want something to read while waiting for the verdict.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/05/magazine/05hacking-t.html
I’ve had a tab open on the betfair website this morning; considering dropping some more money on Labor.
Labor had been sitting at 1.57 with little movement but just checked again and has dropped 10 cents to 1.47. That’s quite a drop.
alias,
Only the Independents truly know, so no-one here has any more clue than you do (unless the Independents are here under a pseudonym!).
I really dont get the indies. How could there be a possibility of them supporting the coalition with the costings debacle? Windsor leaked the black hole (and he called it that). There has been speculation all weekend that they are backing Labor. So who is O referring to? W?
In order to get the Coalition to sign on to the Parl. reforms they have to keep sending signals that they haven’t made up they’re minds.
No need to be worrying about Windsor. From a source very close to him.
Is it possible that the indies are pressuring Katter to support the ALP to give them 77 instead of 76?
I thought Oakeshott and Windsor were leaning Labor, and Katter was anybody’s guess.
Windsor obviously likes the NBN and said so again this morning. Perhaps abbott will agree to go with it to get Windsor’s vote – then Oakeshott will fall in to line. Robb has already said they will agree to anything.
I reckon the longer they take the more likely they are to give Abbott his chance. Gawd I’m a pessimist!
The thing that gets me is that if they did favour backing the Coalition at any point, why did they put costing election promises as number one on their hit list? Everyone outside of the MSM fed general public knew that would blow right out for the Coalition. The desired effect of tarring the Coalition’s image in the MSM has occured.
Perhaps all this talk today about one person ‘compromising’ is just a bit of bluff to get Abbott to believe he is in with a chance, and make him sign up for their reforms? But most likely it’s not good talk for the Labor party getting up.
What should governments do about this, if anything?
http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/mp3s/pedestrian-death-rise-blamed-on-ipods-20100905-14w4d.html
True enough BigBob
In a report about Tony Windsor going back home at the weekend for his 90-year-old mum’s birthday, either TW or perhaps the reporter suggested TW would be asking his dear old mum for advice.
It sounded at first like one of those throw-away lines, but then I saw the same report a second time later in the day, and I took a close look at dear old mum and she looked fairly alert and sharp for a woman of her years.
Could it be that dear old mum has issued TW with a birthday wish?
That’s my contribution to the edgy tea-leaf reading.
Has the WA National provided a firm undertaking to support Tone? I doubt he will support the Monk without first getting his share of pork.
Agreed trawker. Why make the costings such a big issue and announce the black hole? Would make them look foolish if they back the coalition.
O’s comments are a worry though. The only way it could get to 75-75 is for K and W to back the coalition
Did we ban Walkmans? Discmans?
pinko, I dont see how the indies can support the coalition without Crook giving a clear indication that he is #73. He has not done so yet
But at the press club, a couple of weeks ago Windsor clearly stated that he didn’t consider the WA Nat to be part of 73 and said in his opinion they had only 72. Surely he hasn’t changed his mind.
Are you sure of that ? I was under the impression it was Oakeshott that leaked the black-hole document.
Why are they talking 75-75 then??
That’s right Andrew. If KOW go with the Coalition, Crook would then have full licence to go on his own pork barrelling binge to secure his vote, so the process would take even longer.
Windsor was the one on the 7:30 report that night.
Nope. It’s obvious to me there’s a split otherwise they’d be more ready to announce today. What’s not known is where the split is.
Peter
It was Windsor on Lateline who told Tony jones about the black hole and he refused to be briefed by the Coal that night as it was too late.
My guess is Katter wants to sit it out. The complexity of having to actually listen would be fraying his nerves. You could tell he was getting frazzled by his getting narky with reporters yesterday and he has expressed more keenness to get it over with. I expect if it drags on for too long he will end up foetal on the sidewalk.
I think they should be banned for cyclists, and motorists, if not already, the same as talking on a mobile phone. Cyclists are vehicles and should be under the same law. As for pedestrians- can’t do anything, it’s at their perril
Ltep: I thought the reason for the delay (it seems) is that the Coalition is stalling on parliamentary reform and Oakshott in particular is keen to have both sides on board before signing off on government?
I think I’m reading too much into this stuff now but anyway. This statement from Windsor really only applies to the Liberal party taking power. If two are definitely backing Labor then it doesn’t matter what the third does
But the Coal don’t really have 73 cemented votes. I don’t understand the 75-75 all either.
Dogma – I realise it’s been going since forever but that story is actually quite frightening especially for private details of Harry and William and their whereabouts.
Obviously if Murdoch journos are doing that o/s there must be some having a go here. Is that how the Oz MSM get leaks? Have we blamed internal party leaks for what could be a hacker’s activities.
I don’t think any company is too powerful for the police to investigate every aspect of it – Murdoch’s included.
There’s a serious case of collective anxiety going on here.
I think we are trying to read too much into this too. But if O is leaning Labor and the other two coalition, with Crook that would make it 75-75. O going coalition (his less preferred option, would make it 76-74
Alias
I think I am going to cry.
Crook is a sham independent and everyone knows it. If it comes to it he’ll roll over for very little. Couple of hundred million and he’s in.
I hope this talk about the possible 75-75 is just for the purposes of getting their parliamentary reforms through.
A PBer posted a link on this thread yesterday to a story in the media {who obtained a party leak from Lib minister on condition of remaining anonymous} that the Libs are secrectly working towards getting the indies seats back. They also said that the Libs will preference the ALP in Denison to make sure Wilkie only sees one term.
jenauthor – great story. OH is reading it out in the sunshine and having a good old cackle.
Nothing. Natural selection at work.
“Two of these kids belong together
Two of these kids are kind of the same
But one of these kids is doing his own thing
Now it’s time to play our game
It’s time to play our game. ”
3 guesses who the odd one (out) is.
I am beginning to think some of this delay and all the media pressers are aimed at making the press look like idiots more than trying to confuse the electorate.
Doigs @2775
Decimate cars in cities.
+++
One thing is certain, the Libs will be vicious, dangerous losers. Hence the stalling over the Speaker question. They want to retain the power to cause mayhem in a new Parliament.
I think my head will explode.
I’d rather be forced to another poll than have the Rabbott form government.
And betfair has now dropped again to 1.30.
I think it’s in the bag.
PINKO – And, presumably, Crook would only support the opposition if they give him his $1 billion for the regions – which would be electoral dynamite.
Windsor has said in relation to the NBN: “We have to do it once, do it right and do it with fibre.”
Have the libs shifted at all on the NBN. Does anyone know?
AFR (Louise Clegg) writes that Turnbull ought to be Treasurer in any Coalition government for various reasons, including…
Not sure about the content of the article, and indeed this argument on the power of a single member could be made on a number of marginal seat holders on both sides. Louise Clegg is bylined as a “Sydney barrister”; does she have connexions with Tunbull??…I wonder if the message of this article is more that it was published at all
This may have already been discussed, but Ted Macks point re the Independents is a very good one.
If they back the Coalition, they will not get the support they want over the term of the government because the Coalition really wants those seats back. The last thing a Coalition government will do is support those seats and make the independents look good. If they back the ALP they will a whole heap of stuff over the next three years to keep the Coalition from getting the seats.
As will Labor if it comes to it, no points in playing nice.
have a bex and a lie down
Tony Windsor backs Labor NBN:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/windsor-backs-labor-on-broadband-20100904-14vd4.html
True, Kit, and the coalition holding out over the speaker suggests they have lost. Why would they hold out for a Labor speaker???
rosa, would LOVE to see Abbott backflip on the NBN. And lose anyway.
I said this a day or two back, but it was stuck at the bottom of the page:
When the three independents finally stand in front of TV cameras and make an announcement, it will be very much like a jury verdict — much more so than watching an election result.
Having seen hundreds of jury verdicts, observers try to read their body language, interpret their note-taking or lack thereof, make something of whether or not they look at the accused as they file out to give a verdict.
In the end, nothing really can prepare the observer for that stunning moment when the jury foreperson says “guilty” or “not guilty”
This is quite unlike election result watching, when the outcome gradually becomes evident over a period of hours.
Oh FFS!!!……………..I’m going with the Commonwealth car drivers………it’s all over!!!
Absolutely!! talk about nervous nellies – all of that was supposed to be finished on 21st August but 2 weeks later we’re still a bunch of shakin’ jellies.
Maddryl I think you’re unfortunately right on the money here. The gravitational forces are always going to push these guys to the libs and I’m amazed at how many believe that its gonna go otherwise. At best, as in the above scenario, one of them is inclined to labor and that would explain Windsors comments this morning.
Personally 75-75 would do me. The polls have collapsed for the tories given their exposed fraud over the costings and I think Labor would be specials.
kit,
It’s a variation on the point that the Nats and the Independents have been engaged in war for years. It would seem highly unlikely that either side would embrace the other in brotherly love even if they were to form a coalition.
Something about the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
markjs, we have heard NOTHING to suggest that the indies are going coalition. The only indications (Lib staffers, comm car drivers, Mack etc) have been the opposite
2807 – yeah well Betfair had Labor at roughly those odds to win the election too.
How anyone putting money on what these three blokes are going to do can be said to be any more informed than any of us on here is beyond me.
The third alternative which no-one has considered is that the crossbenchers will form a party and advise the GG that they have the numbers to form a government. They will take five portfolios each and will rotate the PMship among them every month. The Senate Greens and Xenophon will also get portfolios. The two major parties will support this arrangement as preferable to having the other major party in power.
DIOGENES _ Supposedly quite a few french philosophers have been killed in pedestrian accidents in Paris. Certainly, Barthes got clobbered by a laundry van.
Is that the same phenomena as the “I-pod” effect.
Gosh Dee 2799 – someone has leaked that the opposition wants the independents’ seats back? How did they keep this quiet for so long?
Can someone enlighten me about the comcar drivers?
Meanwhile…..
abcnews</b<
Inflation under control despite growth spurt http://bit.ly/amdM0W
But of course…
“The truth is putting all of that to one side, who do the Independents want to form a government – the failed government of the last three years or a new Coalition which has a good record in government for 11.5 years under the Howard prime ministership.” – Christopher Pyne.
BH
Why wouldn’t people be nervous at the prospect of an unhinged developmentally delayed self flagellating religious nut job with a mesiah complex getting into the lodge. The stakes are enormous.
I agree, there is nothing to fear from a return to the polls, there is a large pile of ammuntion. Bring it on.
Andrew…………I agree…….I was expressing my frustration at the pointless speculation on here……Labor has it in the bag……..to me it’s quite obvious!!
looking for a job psephos?
Yes — the ALP will have plenty of ammo against the libs that they could run loud and clear.
Imagine the ad … Costello saying Abbott is a bad economic manager, then the clip of Wilkie say Abbott’s offer was reckless and unethical. Then the headline … $11B black hole in costings ….
It is a gift.
Just to add to the mad speculation: how about this? KOW announce:
“We are awarding government to the Coalition 76-74 with one strict condition
they must agree to in writing. The Coalition has six months to demonstrate
competency and sound administration. After that period, we KOW reserve
the absolute right to install the Gillard government.”
alias
Your comments above made me really visualise a Abbott government and a PM Abbott. I know it’s not your fault, but don’t do that again. I’m having a panic attack.
As Tim Dunlop says the msm have done everything they can do oust a government that is economically the envy of the world, so they can install a boofhead. God, Budda, Mohammad, Benny combover Whatsitface, help us.
2830 – and no money to pay for ads with which to fire it…
Patrick, they have said Labor is winning. They are pretty reliable apparently
I don’t have much sympathy for the impatience being expressed here. I think it was OPT who quoted above “Marry in haste; repent in leisure”.
I’m very confident we will have a Labor minority government and I’m pleased the independents are using the time to negotiate some important reforms. And even if I am wrong and Abbott gets up, his power will be severely limited and his reputation has already been severely tarnished over the last couple of weeks.
Patrick………comcar drivers called it for Labor several days ago……..
alias, that is just plain mad. THey want stable government
Good greif, the removalists at Parlaiment House would be busy…
A while ago we were discussing the US elections and the Tea Party here – this article makes a point I was making somewhat less eloquently, i.e. that the Tea Party may not be such a good thing on a national stage for the Republicans.
nearly choking on my excellent organic coffee.
Dogma.. You mean the jury verdict post? My apologies.. I did not mean to cause anyone further distress
Poetry isn’t helping!
It would (or perhaps should) be unconscionable to put into power a party exposed as having first deliberately misled the voting public on its costings and then exacerbated that error by making yet more unfunded promises.
I fthey cannot support Labor for whatever reason then the independents should give the people the right to vote again.
Do we know if Tony wears an ‘i-pod’ when he rides his push-bike.
A whip around of ALP voters for $20 each and we’d be able to buy ads — that’s how get-up does it and it works!
We may be reading too much into this. It really depends on what type of questions Oakeshott and Winsor were responding to. My guess is that they were both asked something like – IF the numbers come out at 75 all, would there have to be another election?
In that context the answers O and W gave are simply hypothetical and in line with their stated aim of seeking stability and avoiding another poll.
Does anyone know what questions they were actually asked?. . .
Good news tweeted from SA
[@Birmo all this rain is fantastic for Murray – hope to see storages rise, rivers flow, wetlands revived & water flowing to Coorong & Murray mouth}
If it’s 75-75 then don’t underestimate the rage of the electorate at having to suffer through another campaign. Pretty much anything could happen.
Yes, and the indies actually know Abbott. How can they possibly back him
“Why wouldn’t people be nervous at the prospect of an unhinged developmentally delayed self flagellating religious nut job with a mesiah complex getting into the lodge.”
That sounds like a precise description of a chap who got into the White House twice.
I’ve got a spare one.
Patrick, it will NOT be 75-75. The indies will not let this happen. They do not want another election
alias
Not your fault, but your post was the first time I allowed myself to visualise it. Have been avoiding it.
Cheers
No money *waiting* to be spent, the one thing the Labor party can do
better than the Libs is to raise funds fast.
I think FakeFielding has the right idea
http://twitter.com/FakeFielding
Jon, I disagree. The Libs can get millions from their big business mates. When do we find out how much they had donated last campaign?
There will NOT be another election. One thing the indies have said is that 77 is more stable, 76 is one by-election away from a change of government
PUFF – Ho, ho. Fill it with trance music and send it to Tone.
Has Tony Crook actually said he’ll definitely side with the Coaltion? Because as far as I’m concerned, he’s on the cross benches until he says otherwise.
rosa,
Tony’s sort of trance music would be a collection of the counting ditties from Sesame Street.
A Hair Shirt and a couple of electrodes attached to his testicles are the only cycling accessories for Tony. Self flagellation and Personal mortification is the only means to personal salvation and the highest office in the land.
I doubt the indies want another election, so will do everything they can to ensure we get a minority govt.
Just been having a look at the overall 2PP vote.
At present (with all of the disclaimers about “8 seats not counted etc) the coalition lead by about 3,750 votes.
When you look at the outstanding votes though, it is pretty clear that these will heavily follow labor.
The three electorates with the lowest percentage of votes counted (all less than 84% counted) all dramatically favour Labor over the coalition – Lingiari, Sydney and Melbourne.
11 out of the 15 electorates with the lowest vote counts favour Labor (and include not just the three mentioned above, but also Melbourne Ports, Watson, Adelaide, Grayndler, Isaacs, Gorton, all with very heavy labor votes.
Some 20 out of the 30 electorates with less than 90% counted favour Labor.
If this wasn’t the AEC you’d almost be wondering whether the counting order was being deliberately skewed to maintain the appearance of a Coalition lead in the 2PP for as long as possible!
2848 – and one phone call to each of Clive Palmer and Malcolm Turnbull to have the Libs with more cash to spend.
Someone asked about the Senate earlier
From Antony Green on twitter
DLP position strengthens for last VIC Senate seat as Coalition vote slips http://bit.ly/91XMKY
Devo, whip it, apt.
Is it possible to tell yet hown many very marginal seats there will be? It seems to be that there will be heaps!
Antony again regarding the SA Senate spot
The indies should not be considering their electorates alone. They are in the unique position of deciding who governs for the whole country.
Do they have the guts?
“Key independents say they may be forced to switch their support.
Mr Windsor says the three independents will meet again today to “lay their cards on the table”.
“People may be leaning one way, but they may have to come back the other way to get some stability into the system,” he told Radio National.on which party to back in minority government if it looks as if the numbers will fall in a dead heat.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/09/06/3003446.htm?section=justin
As far as I’m concerned, this is Tony Crook’s position and until he says otherwise, I’m sticking with it.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2010/08/27/2995947.htm
He might not be dealing with Labor, but he hasn’t specifically said he will support the Coalition until he gets $900 million for his electorate and reforms to the GST.
spur, I just dont see how the indies can announce they are supporting the coalition without Crook on board
Puff, it seems that RN is suggesting a dead heat, not Windsor. We can relax a bit, I think
19 Labor seats and 22 Coalition seats under a 5% margin, Roxanna, on the curent vote.
Plus Dennison as an independnet “marginal”
I mention Crook, because until we know where he stands, the Coalition can’t make a claim to form a stable and effective government.
It also occurs to me that the Liberals allow their members to cross the floor on issues of their choice. I’m sure the Independents will factor this into their equation.
Re: 2PP , Mumble (I think) estimated the impact of reinserting the 8 seats will be +.13 to ALP.
So unless and until they drop to 49.87 on the 142 seat AEC count – the ALP has probably won the 2PP.
What would the indies have done or said if the $10.6 billion black hole belonged to the ALP?
Seems the costings were very important but now have no relevance.
I don’t think the indies have the guts to make the decision that is best for the country. They will be ruled by their conservative electorates.
And where’s this coming from?
Still can’t understand why the coalition is still in the race, but with meetings today with Julia and TA, this must be the most important meeting of Julia’s life. She has already showed superb negotiating skills and I trust she can pull this off.
It would be interesting to know why the Coalition believe & have been spruiking at every opportunity that Wilkie double crossed them.
How exactly did he do this?
I really hope you are wrong Dee, I really do. My black dog will bite me and never let go.
The three Indies are saying they want open, honest, stable and full term government.
They fact that there was a hole in their costings need not necesarily mean they do not back coal, but they should fully realise that there was a dishonest attempt to deceive the Australian voters over finances.
This alone should have stitched up their support for Labor.
If they support Coal that means they are in favour of a closed dishonest government,
and makes them dishonest as well.
But then they are all politicians aren’t they.
Dee,
The Libs story is that Wilkie asked for money to rebuild the Hobart Hospital and when they said yes, Wilkie turned around and said they were being irresponsible.
The logic of Windsors statements this morning about one of the independents maybe having to change their minds to ensure ‘stablity’ to me indicates that the coaltion is the most likely – ie he can only be talking about one of the independents changing their vote for stability – and if its one, then that would seem to indicate support for the coaltion – cos Labor can afford to lose one of the independents.
On the other hand, he may just be talking about a sufficient buffer – ie for instance labor having 77 seats to ensure that they are not immediately vulnerable to one vote.
I don’t know, I still think they’ll go with the coaltion for no other reason than their constituencies are that way inclined. The same reason taht I knew that Wilkie was always going to go labor.
One advant of drinking tea is you can read tea leeves at th bottom Clearly whilst old country socialist Bob Katter wants pork , other 2 want principal and more principal , espec in HoR reform To get that they need BOTH Labor and Libs 100% public endorse of there ideas bfore they swing there bat to one side or other , its just end game stuff
or puts anothr way , labor is 74/73 , and 3 Undys to Abbott only = 75 = unstable Libs
= thems 3 Undys then relying on th unstable Nats Crookd for “stable” Govt
= less Speaker = back to 75 unstable
Reckon 3 Undys can do maths & socialist Katter loves NBN
Gaffook, having raised the bullying, threatening phone calls, fake constituent phone calls and the costings debacle, the indies would look awfully stupid backing the coalition
I’ve discovered where the doctors’ wives have been hiding out. In Chatswood North, the only booth in Bradfield won by Labor, and the only one to swing to Labor.
Thanks Rod – sorry about my spelling. I’m at work and shouldn’t really be on here.
I think all of KOW are somewhat rattled and exhausted at this point (like all and sundry involved).
For that reason alone, it is folly to read too much into Windsor’s statement about breaking a 75-75 tie. I feel certain he was speaking in a theoretical sense, and was also probably just trying to say something non-specific to fill airtime without saying anything definitive about his own position.
Gary
Windsor was being questioned by Fran Kelly on how important the ‘Big Black Hole’ was to their decision. He said it wasn’t that important.
I could’nt understand where he was coming from considering he was the one who blew the whistle on the Rabbott. The three made big smoke about the costings.
Two days later & it was losing it relevance to their deliberations.
And the Libs know it — they are harping on it now to try and establish some kind of legitimacy before it is too late.
Misleading the people again?
Roxanna@2890
What?!! What boss could reasonably object to a person taking a genuine interest in the future governance of her country?
The usual Internet usage rules do not apply.
Re windsors comments, I should say, he did talk about ‘one’ changing votes to avoid a 75-75 scenario. If thats the case then that points nowhere other than a coalition govt.
2887: Remember that Wilkie has said he will ensure supply and confidence for whoever forms government.
That’s what I think. The Minister might not agree.
GG
That’s a double cross?
possibly, windsor wants more money for http://www.rda.gov.au/ and moved to the PM’s office
could be the end of the poker game bluffing soon
Death by iPod… What should governments do about this, if anything?
I don’t think there’s anything that can be done about it. I’ve nearly collected many teenaged kids just around where I live (we have about 6 schools within a kilometre).
The thing is you run someone over, end their young lives. It’s most likely not your fault (from a traffic regulation point of view) but you have to live with it for the rest of your life. You could never go back to normal living, especially if you stayed in the suburb, where everyone knows everybody else.
Very sobering thought: 25%.
Yes sean, unless the 75-75 was put to him as a hypothetical, in which case one of them would have to change to break the deadlock
James J is quite right.
Both the Coalition and Labor have a theoretical 74 votes each at this stage.
Dee, Wilkie’s point was that they offered $1b when it costs less than 1/2 that
Why 74 for the coal?
Andrew
I listened to the Fran Kelly interview this morning, and it wasn’t put to him as a hypothetical – he actually raised it himself.
Alias
if that’s the case I think it is Katter who would change his vote to Labor.
ltep – still more nonsense from you.
alias, huh? They have 72. Crook has not declared
Well the 74 for the Coalition does assume Crook is on board (not certain of course but push come to shove and he surely would with a bit of pork) plus IF the three independents go the Coalition’s way then on questions of supply and no-confidence Wilkie becomes their No74, based on his agreement on that issue re the Coalition
ltep is guessing like everyone else here. It’s just his opinion and that’s OK. He could be right or not.
Alias, why didnt Wilkie just announce he will support whomever gets to 75 votes then?
This is a perfectly plausible scenario. Where’s the nonsense?
Even *if* Crook is onboard the coalition only have 73.
Maybe it would be possible for cars to emit an electronic signal that sounds as an alarm when picked up by an iPod in the car’s path at say 50 metres away.
Sorry that was badly explained. Wilkie, based on his statement, is in effect a floating vote though he has said he prefers Labor, and would give his support to Labor in the first instance. But that goes out the window if the three independents go with the Coalition.
Putting Crook out of the picture, the Coalition 72 plus the three plus Wilkie gives them 76. I don’t mean this as a partisan comment (I have obviously made my preference clear otherwise) it’s just mathematics.
Well they could have been listening to rap. Bonus.
i don’t think the coalition can trust wilkie, irrespective how the numbers fall
nor can they trust Katter
sean, either O is playing with our minds, or he indicating that he would switch to coalition to break a 75-75 deadlock. The only way it can get to the deadlock is for Crook and 2 indies to back the coalition
What a tedious and painful period in Ausiie politics. Katter went to the toilet but didn’t flush, so i think he’s going Coal. Windsor’s cousins best friends aunties said that he will go ALP but could still go Coal. Oaks wife is half aboriginal and wants a better deal for indigenous, is backing A:P but could change if Wyatt is made leader of indiginous afair. Crook wants 782 million and a new car, and then might back ALP, but has since met up with Gryllis at the speach therapist and thinks Abetz needs more help so will back Coal- ??????
ltep went -
Kohler is on the record quoting crooks price at $ 850 Million. Money abbott doesn’t have – you may recall *something* about a GBBBH ?
Also if abbott pays up for crook all the others nats plus the pineapple party will want the same, not just in this parliamant but in future ones as well.
This is the last thing in the media I’ve seen from Tony Crook on his position. He said he’d make his decision by the weekend, but he still hasn’t said anything. I can only assume that Mr Abbott hasn’t yet agreed to his demands.
http://www.esperanceexpress.com.au/news/local/news/general/crook-may-not-join-with-coalition/1930874.aspx
Of course the obvious question is where will Mr Abbott find $900 million in his costings to allocate to O’Connor and make reforms to the GST when he’s got a black hole of $10.6 Billion?
Until it’s official, the Coalition can’t make a claim for government (unless Bandt and Wilkie have a miraculous change of heart)
Because Wilkie has said he wouldn’t block supply or confidence motions should Abbott form Government. He’d prefer Labor though and I’m not sure how stable this be given the public attack the Coalition mounted on Wilkie after he made his announcement.
The nationals must be praying that the independents go with labor. Otherwise THey’re gonna be seen for what they are – weak patsies to the big end of town.
Sorry my logic was wonky there. If you put Crook out of the picture, then the Coalition 72 plus the three independents, if they go that way, gets to 75, so then it is a question of whether Wilkie prefers to produce a government (which could only be the Coalition at that point, if he switched across) or is happy to see another election. Not sure if he has addressed that question.
Did Katter wash his hands after going to the toilet? This could be pivotal…
He had a billion for Wilkie. He’ll just go further into debt if need be. You don’t think he’s principled do you?
But it is also plausible that the indies could all baclk Labor. A case could be made for it.
ltep, there is no way that Abbott could agree to the Crook demands without upsetting the non-WA Nats. He would have to roll out royalties for regions Australia-wide. Now how much would that cost?
Think its weird though that abbott has not agreed and rolled out Crook in support of him to try and change the narrative
Me too – except my coffee is some goddamned awful stuff we bought in a hurry. Good for choking on tho!
Tim Dunlop’s article was hilarious the other day – nice to have him back and in form. We have a lot to thank him for from his blogocracy days.
There used to be a bloke on Blogocracy who made fantastic comments re finance and he took apart Costello’s great economic skills beautifully. I learnt a lot from it.
Wilkie has a written agreement with Labor only. How he would behave under a Tone govt is anyone’s guess.
Psephos WTF is going on? You’re the only one with inside info, spill the beans…
I keep mentioning Crook, not to make a partisan comment, but to mention the reality, that the Coalition can’t proceed with the Independent’s support until Crook makes his position clear on whether he will support Abbott or sit on the cross benches.
Crook has given every indication he doesn’t want to be considered as part of the coalition. No-one should take him for granted.
This is all Groundhog Day like!
I seem to recall about this time last week, people were trying to figure out what Wilkie would do.
Lots of wailing and gnashing of teeth about him looking like not supporting the ALP.
Then he did.
The Independents will or won’t – nothing said here will change that.
If your anxious, go outside and take a walk somewhere nice. This is one event you have no personal control over, so stop sweating it so hard until it happens!
There’s a whole range of plausible scenario’s and everyones perfectly entitled to make them. The only truly nonsensical one is to suggest that Crook will end up being anything other than with the coalition.
I don’t think that the incongruity between a conservative political orientation and the Labor/Green view of politics has been fully appreciated by some. It makes it very difficult for the conservative independents to go to labor even if its that case that all the rational arguments would indicate that that is what should happen.
These guys would be under enormous pressure from the tories and elements in their electorates. They’d also be aware that if the new limited MSM campaign against labor was bad under Rudd, its gonna be even worse now that they can call it a “labor green coalition’. If they go with Labor Heffernans ‘devil’ call to Oakshots wife will look like childs play.
Gary.. That is correct. It is perfectly possible Wilkie might utlimately renege on his verbal statement that he would not block supply or vote to support a no-confidence motion in the event of a Coalition government — especially in the light of the ill will over the $1 billion Hobart hospital thing.
Spur, the real question is if he would oppose Gillard or Abbott.
My theory of delay: the 3 Indies are dotting every I, crossing every “T” in their rationale/s for their decision/s.
They seemed to have played remarkably fair with both sides; presented the same “wish lists” to both; revised, re-discussed; had “deep & meaningfuls” with advocates of both sides (inc Rudd & Heffernan); gone to treasury, discussed things with both Ministers & their Shadows; and done it again, and again, and again.
When the decision is finally made, they will have a paper trail, not only of their wishes & negotiations, but of the differences between planks in party platforms, budget honesty and the extent to which they can trust each party to stick to its undertakings; differences which underpin their decision/s.
In addition, the national electorate will also know what the reasons and agreements were – at least for & with the party they choose – so it can measure just how well party & Indies deliver.
That will be a very powerful end to a meticulously and even-handedly managed process. The Nation should be proud of them, and thank them for it.
Sean, do you REALLY think that Gillard would have announced the Green deal if it meant losing the 3 indies?
Sean, I don’t think any of the independents feel particularly under pressure. However, of course they’re going to have natural leanings. Everyone does and this is hard to overcome.
Does the $1bn dollar hospital still go ahead if the coalition win but without Wilkies support?
He didn’t have a billion for wilkie – he lied yet gain.
We know he is unprincipled. Pity more people didn’t.
@2941
Tony Jones pressed Andrew Robb on this question last Friday night. A crumpled Robb sort of yielded to the notion that yes, they would proceed with the hospital nevertheless but it was clearly not something he had thought through.
Ozpol 2938
Hear Hear!
Shine a light in dark corners, I say.
Antony Green:
[AntonyGreenABC
#ausvotes Family First now behind Liberals in race for last Senate spot in SA. http://bit.ly/bLdMVT
Really
My inside info: It’s very quiet here at the Big House. Our office has a new fridge. I saw Michelle Grattan having coffee with Bill Heffernan. I’m told that over in greenland the offices of defeated MPs are being cleaned, but I can’t confirm that. My mum rang to wish me happy birthday.
OzPolT – well put and something I’ll keep in mind. thanks.
Happy birthday, Psephos!
What makes Doctors wifes diff in Chatswood North booth vs rest of Bradfield , unless th rest afflict by Diogenous disease
2943 – that was arguably the best question I’ve heard a journo ask anyone this year.
it was a cracker.
I should have added “MANY HAPPY RETURNS”, given the context!
What status does Greenland have? Is it a province or state of Denmark?
Did I say that? Are you suggesting that GIllard knows she’s got them in the bag? And by the way, seeing as you assume that Gillard has great judgement – do you really think that Gilard would propose something as naff and damaging as the ‘peoples assembly’…
Itep
Now that is nonsense.
Happy Birthday Adam! And congratulations on your new fridge.
Wilkie delivers. Win or Lose.
The master negotiator.
Itep
If you put it like that, he’s only opposing Gillard on the mining tax.
Therefore everything else for him is open game and he has not formally said he’ll support the Coalition in government. Until he says otherwise, the Coalition are effectively at 72.
Agreed Ozpol. And if they are using the criteria you outline, its hard to seem them not backing Labor. I recall Wilkie’s comments about Abbott’s lack of attention to detail and due process in his negotiations
FWIW, I heard one Liberal spokesman [sic] say it would.
Just to be clear, Crook’s position at the moment is that he’ll support the Opposition (the ALP in Opposition can’t implement the mining tax).
Windsor has form in outgreening the greens
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/capital-circle/tony-windsor-supports-radical-action-on-climate-change/story-fn59nqgy-1225914737409
I am going to write him and Oakeshott the loveliest letter I have yet written to a pollie.
Yes, Robb committed to it on Lateline.
A Windsor quote from that article.
Could have been said by Saint Bob
Mr Wilike played the coalition like a Stradivarius
I like Windsor more all the time.
Entsch says Indies will support ALP.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/latest/7889907/independents-will-support-alp-entsch/
I hope he’s right…
So what we will get in the opposition is:
-incredible support for Tony for pulling the party back from the abyss
-internal criticism for shredding party values
-massive criticism for terrible negotiation skills
Happy Birthday, Psephos. May all your birthday wishes come true.
rosa
Antoni Gaudi did in Barcelona.
Parliament House is divided into four zones – the public area, the Reps (green carpets), the Senate (red carpets) and the ministerial wing (blue carpets). Senate and Reps staffers affect great disdain for each other, and call the other area greenland and redland.
Lefty E 2965
By logic, ‘conservative’ people should be naturally inclined to conservation.
Psephos
Yes, but it would be impossible to retrofit to all the older cars. It is probably easier to have something on the bike which detects the cars. I think ears do it best.
It is absolutely ridiculous to a ride a bike wearing an Ipod. It sounds like a pending Darwin award to me.
I have my own theory regarding ‘helicopter parenting’, the increased supervision and ‘protection’ of kids from experiencing risk/consequence, and older teen/young adult behaviour like hoon driving. This could also apply to this sort of behaviour. (Of course older adults probably Ipod-bike too but you can’t control stupidity.)
In my time as a kid and parent, kids broke things: arms, wrists, ankles, and it was just part of growing up. Jenny climbed a tree, fell out, broke a wrist, got told she was stupid not to test the branch before climbing out on it, and everyone signed the cast.
Now the owner of the tree gets sued for growing a tree, or the council gets sued for not fencing off the dangerous tree, the school gets sued for not teaching tree awareness, the doctor gets sued because the wrist isn’t straight, the msm runs a campaign against the evil greenies who support planting hazardous fora, industry advocates the resumption of logging old native forests, and Tone just rides his bike.
Gaudi was run down by a tram I think – and no-one recognised him before he died in hospital.
Ta on the insiders lingo. I didnt think there were Danish elections.
Happy Birthday
Happy Birthday Psephos. Going by the images from the Wilkie presser, you don’t look a day over 25.
I hope it turns out to be a very happy birthday Psephos.
2865 Rod Hagen – yes, the TPP – saw Pyne going on about it yesterday – I was just hoping he’d go that “extra step” and say “Whoever wins the final TPP should be the government”. Of course he didn’t because, like us, he knows the maths. I have repeatedly challenged Coalition bloggers here to make the same declaration and their silence is the best proof that Labor will finish ahead.
The last few weeks have been shocking – if we did have another election and it was another hung parliament I think I would need to take leave from work! (or face the sack!)
William, I thought you might put a “predictions” thread up today, but driving to work I was so torn about the outcomes that I was in danger of knocking people over, iPod or not – so please don’t do it, it will just make us all worse!
My reading of things is O won’t go to Coalition UNLESS the other two do, and even then he may “abstain” to prevent 75-75.
I feel it is still more likely that Labor will form a minority govt – maybe with W or K “abstaining” from the process to give 76-73.
Vera
We’re thinking of you here, trying to channel strength & positive vibes, and hoping you’re getting lots of love & support from your Significant Others & friends.
Happy Birthday Psephos. May you have many more in redland.
I was thinking of pedestrians. If their ears were free there wouldn’t be a problem. I’m certainly aware when I’m walking around with earplugs in that I can’t hear approaching cars, and have to be careful when crossing streets.
Strewth!! Iv’e been out for two hours and sawn a heaped trailer load of wood and came back with some expectation – but, alas, no change.
My back is now so kanackered I haven’t got it in me to go out for another session, so I guess I’ll have to have a politics day on the setee.
Very sensible.
Game over. Grattan to the Libs
.
I don’t agree with this theory. Yes there is helicopter parenting of toddlers that is too the toddlers detriment. I cannot logically see how this would follow through to high-risk adult behaviour.
I would expect the ‘helicopter parents’ to continue a close relationship with their children as they grow through their teens.
Except that they’re funded by mining companies.
Labor odds have shortened to 1.3 on Betfair
redland is unrepresentative swill – PJK
I reckon the Coal are more like a $2 Ukulele, anybody can learn to play ‘em in five minutes
[#ausvotes Family First now behind Liberals in race for last Senate spot in SA. http://bit.ly/bLdMVT
Having placed FF’s Bob Day (or was it Bob Day’s FF?) 42 out of 42 on the ballot paper that makes me feel good.
Psephos
Happy Birthday
Careful with the detail, protect your identity. Don’t you watch Spooks?
Just heard on Abc that the indies have finished their meeting the TA. Next off the see PM Julia. No comments on how his meeting went. Pyne still whinging about parliamentary reforms.
Furthermore Roxanna above referred to Psephos as “Adam”. Well and truly out I would have thought, combined with photo
On Robb and the Hobart hospital thing.
My recollection is that the commitment is to “factor it into long term plans”.
Code for “not going to happen” IMO
BK
Me too.
Well down down down on my paper too. Last I think.
And to think that until I read this I thought I had ‘personal control’ over the situation! damn! Thanks for putting me straight.
I’d say that if you’ve not come to terms with the human tendency to speculate in situations like this, then its you who needs to do the walking.
I suppose there’s a first for everything, including the way the Libs treat their losers – although it did resurrect Menzies (from the mess of the OAP) & Howard, but not for years.
I can’t see how the Speaker can be independent with a Coalition government. 76-1 = 75. The Speaker would often have to be using his or her casting vote. Wilkie might go with a Coalition motion sometimes, but it can’t be guaranteed he’d always do so. In that case we have a government (Coalition) unable to pass its main agenda.
OK, so let’s have the Deputy Speaker from the Opposition (whoever they are). This means that neither the independent Speaker nor the independent Deupty would exercise a casting vote – an effective “pairing”.
We do know the Coalition are resisting the Deputy coming from the Opposition. But I fail to understand how an independent Coalition Spreaker and an independent Coalition Deputy Speaker would be “stable”. The Coalition would have a 76-2 vote… 74, a minority.
The only way Speaker and Deputy, one from each party, could be stable would be if the Indies all support Labor, with one Speaker from each side. That would result in Labor 77-1 v. Coalition 74-1… 76 v. 73. The only really “stable” situation. If the Coalition refuses to play ball on independent Speakers, then Labor could balance this by withdrawing their agreement to independence.
If this is the case, how do we interpret the Coalition sticking to their “both from the same side” scenario? It seems like it can only be a spoiling tactic, to drag out negotiations. They’re cutting their noses off to spite their face because, on the numbers, they can never supply both Speakers. It’s got to be a spoiling tactic. Going with Labor would therefore be much easier for the Indies, just on the numbers involved.
Throw in Costingsgate and you have two sound reasons – one based on numbers and the other based on ethics – for the Indies to go with Labor. Add a pinch of attempted intimidation over the weekend, the uproar and confusion as an incumbent government – ministries, public servants, even the stationery – is dismantled and it should be logical which way they’d go. In my opinion Labor definitely has the edge.
I can’t see that the Indies – so near to their goal of reforms – would abandon things to a new election. It’d be snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
If Labor lost and then spat the dummy on the independence of the Speakers (and this is provided an incoming Coalition government would agree to one from each side), it’d be a disaster.
I can only see one way the Indies can go: Labor.
Quiz: Who said this? (clue- it was in 1910)
Pica
The ALP didnt seem to be able to work it out during the election.
The taxi-drivers actually refused to pick him up as he looked too poor to pay. He was taken to a free hospital with crappy care and his identity worked out the next day. He refused to move to another hospital saying he would remain among the poor, which turned out not to be such a great decision.
bg
some yank?
Gusface 3000
Yep. On the money.
pres at the time by my recollection
Yep
Are centrebet running a book on what gig Rudd will get?
Sean,
Nope, I don’t need a walk, but by the rudeness of your reply you certainly do. I’ve been around political blogs for a very long time, so I’ve seen this all before.
Far too many people are going beyond analysis and actually investing too much into this.
People aren’t merely missing the forest for the trees, they’re examining every spot of lichen.
Happy Birthday Psephos
Here is a birthday present for you. Hope you like it.
http://tiny.cc/g5l1f
Cheers Dogma
Greetings Bludgers
Been off planting trees along our bit of a river. The river god must have been irritated because all new plantings, around half our land, and around 1500 older plantings now under 1-2 metres of water.
Such is life.
Psephos
Happy Birthday.
Ooh Lichen. That means that Oakshott is much more likely to….
true, a very unmusical performance from Jules and crew, but Wilkie has been on stage all of 5 mins, and he got a good tune out of them
Wilkie of course had the advantage of a captive audience….
The USA politician ?president who lobbied / legislated for national “monument” (parks). I did hear it recently, but can’t remember anything else. It was familiar, so it was probably also mentioned in John D MacDonald’s Travis McGee books.
Interesting to compare the different attitudes in the media on Sunday and this morning of the Labor and Lib pollies. Labor relaxed, pleasant, comfortable and Libs, edgy, pushy, complaining, demanding, full of excuses…..body language says a lot.
BB
Not sure why you saw my post as Rude. You seem to be pathologising what is a very normal process. If you’ve been around poltical blogs you’d know that a large proportion of it is speculation. This Blog has never been strictly confined to pure analysis and the fact that people are ‘investing too much in this’ is just a reflection of how important the outcome is to them. As I said before – very normal.
Sorry if i’ve offended you in pointing this out.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/09/04/newspoll-alp-favoured-for-government-47-39/comment-page-60/#comment-618519
Vik,
Not necessarily putting much stock in what the bookie predict any more after their election effort. On the morning of August 21 they all showed a resounding Labor victory. Regardless I can’t help asking … what price are they giving the fiberals at this point in time?
Ozpol
His contribution to global conservation is yet to be surpassed
Not bad for a Republican
Speaking of Oakeshott, 2 things:
(1) My father (a resident of Port Macquarie) chatted to R.Oakeshott on the Monday right after the election. My father asked him what the most important issue was for him. RO answered NBN, no question. On that issue, RO said the last time he appeared on the 7:30 report he was forced to go to Coffs Harbour for the televised interview, which ticked him off mightily.
(2) Over the weekend just passed RO put a full page ad in the local paper telling people not to phone him or email him, but to direct all correspondence to him as letters (snail-mail). I guess he’s being bombarded with crank calls and spam.
BB, as usual, youre spot on. If the coalition got the 3 indies and Crook and their parliamentary reforms, they would get 74 votes once the speakers are removed. They cant possibly want this
Barbeque Bill
“That would result in Labor 77-1 v. Coalition 74-1… 76 v. 73. ”
Where did extra 151 st MP come from
Think you making my earlier point diff way
Undys want a pairing of independant Speaker & D/Speaker , one each from ALP & Libs
Libs present got 72 plus maybe Crook = 73 plus 3 Undys =76 less Speaker =75 unstable
ALP present got 74 plus 3 Undys = 77 less there Speaker = 76 more stable
IF Wilkie had followd Brandt ie no each way bet , 3 Undys would hav no choice but ALP
On the death by ipod thing, in the UK they have dubbed the phenomenon “podestrians”. They had an information campaign targetting 12-16 yos who are the worst offenders.
And they also said this.
There is an article by Michael Body in today’s Australian ‘Journos won’t be taken for a ride’ quoting Phil Gardener, wtte, that for the next election his papers will not be putting journos on the media buses. Not worth it. Paul Whittaker, editor of The Australian, will continue to put journos on the bus ‘to ensure that serious questions are asked of both leaders.’ ABC head of news Kate Torney did not like the buses but did not commit either way.
Boerwar
The News outlets would be better off putting journos on the Western Sydney bus network
It would be more illuminating seeing as both parties get their lines from there anyway.
Despair not, Boerwar. Remember that ancient Egyptians had three seasons – inundation, coming forth & harvest – and it was inundation which enriched the soil and increased subsoil moisture.
Perhaps a burst of Akhenaten: Great hymn to the Aten (down the page, in brown italics) might do the trick!
Thanks, Dogma. I haven’t seen Inception so the joke is lost on me I’m afraid.
There is also an article by Michael Bodey on The Challenge of Fast-Moving Change about news, journalism online, and making a buck. Inter alia, there is some discussion about a discussion on regulation, with particular reference to ‘anonymous lynch mobs’ in online comment spaces. Roger Green of the Drum opines ‘The anonymity of the internet is some kind of hippie bullshit,’…
So now you know.
cuppa, except that the odds post election were heavily favouring the coalition and now have swung strongly the other way
Diogenes, whence cometh your Gaudi knowledge? Have you been to beautiful Barcelona? I have a Parc Guell green dragon on my desk (somewhat less than life size).
blue_green, I hear you. Maybe this is the end of politics by Western Sydney?
T.S eliot may be an anagram of toilets but he’s got this right
That is worth a huge laugh. Just who are the journalists who will be asking the hard questions at the OO. They’re not interested in anything that remotely resembles policy as far as the Coalition are concerned.
Apart from a few at Fairfax – Tingle, Gittings, Taylor, Coorey, the only OO journo who is any good is George Mega and he was shut up before the election.
Make that 2 huge laughs for the OO editor.
OPT
Thank you. If the croaking was anything to go by, we can confidently expect a plague of frogs.
There will stil be a couple of WS seats in play, especially as the NSW ALP govt wil be long gone by the time of the next fed election.
I still think we will be put through another “trial by queensland” though.
BH, I have lost all respect for George M. after he was silent about the costings before the election. He’s just as bad as the others at the OO
blue-green, the end of the NSW and Qld Labor governments will certainly help Labor in the next federal poll
3018: You are forgetting though that in the event of an abbott government, wilkie essentially becomes a +1 for them on supply and confidence. An abbott government will effectively end up on 77.
Most definitely. They’re lead in Federal ALP’s saddlebags.
i want to newspoll to say when they released the poll to the OO and whether they asked voting intention. I think the OO has been mightily shifty with this one
james, this is a misreading of Wilkie’s position. If this was correct, he would have just announced he was supporting whomever got the most votes on the floor
I haven’t been to Barce. I went through an architecture phase and read a bio of Gaudi. He was an amazingly strict and humble man for someone who came up with such glorious organic and iconoclastic art.
Andrew, according to Peter Brent (Mumble) Newspoll asked who the person voted for at the election, not voting intention
I assume that the main reason for media management via bussing was to ensure that the leaders were not ambushed at events. When did this occur some of the media outlets disgraced themselves by focus on the trite ‘human interest’ rather than on policy depth. So, in many ways, they have only themselves to blame. The partisan nature of some of the media outlets further stifles any desire of the parties to cede skerricks of control over media ‘events’.
Not sure where all this will end.
*goes shopping*
weird, we kind of know how people voted in the election? A case of not asking the question as you might not like the answer?
in any case, the polling was done Mon-Tues and would have been ready Wed. They sat on it until Sat
Read like a Wiki summation to me, everybody is a one click away expert these days
As was Abe Lincoln! And both must be turning in their graves!
I thought it might be Teddy Bear, but didn’t know if it was his or the Yellowstone naturalist (John Burroughs – took me a while to get that googling right) who did the hard yards – and talking.
Andrew, here’s some of George Megalogenis’s “silence” on the Coalition’s economic credibility:
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/that_budget_hole_wont_go_away/
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/abbott_channels_captain_feathersword/
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/tony_reveals_more_than_he_intended/
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/coalition_turns_a_blind_eye_to_failings_of_first_home_grant/
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/liberals_double_counting_staggers/
yes spur, an OO blog really got the message there didnt it?
That’s the thing Andrew. Their figures must be taken with a grain of salt. We can see this with the benefit of hindsight. In the weeks and days leading up to the election they never showed the Coalition as very close to a win. The Coalition’s price got down to as low as 2.65 on the afternoon of Aug 21 (4.30pm), with Labor at that hour of that day ranging between 1.38 and 1.46. As you can see, nothing like parity.
This election showed (to me) that the bookies offer a punt and a bit of fun, but nothing that can be taken too seriously in the predictive stakes.
And spur, not even a blog entry at the most critical point- AFTER the release of the costings. THAT is silence
Well I can recommend BCN to anyone who’s going to Europe. Like Paris, but cheaper, and on the seashore. Excellent food, lots of culture, and splendid 19th century architecture. The endless promotion of Gaudi does get a bit tiresome (like Mozart in Vienna), but he was a genius.
Boerwar 3020
I predicted this ages ago – it happens every election – the collective hand-on-heart “mea culpa”.
“Next time we’ll do it our way and not be sucked in by corny photo-ops, dubious costings etc”
Then next time they do it all again, and wake up with another sore head and phony “regrets”
Not only that Cuppa, the markets are effected by irrelevant noise rather than objective fact. The only reason the markets are currently narrowing for Labor is because most of the media are predicting the independents will go with Labor.
Andrew, I think those posts would have been in the Australian newspaper during the election, but I’m not sure.
Here’s what he said on Abbott last week
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/sorry_tonys_not_ready_to_be_prime_minister/
Read the comments.
Seconded.
Thanks William.
Greeting true believers.
In regard to one independent changing sides to avoid a draw. I suspect the story will be that they have all agreed not to divulge the one member who swapped sides. This is a move to avoid collateral damage in the home electorate and avoid attack after the result is known. Nobody will be able to pin who exactly the turncoat was. No matter what side the accuser hails from (i.e. whoever loses) it could never be a concerted attack. And in the electorate, each would be given the benefit of the doubt from enough voters not to suffer too much in the next poll.
You can draw your own conclusions as why this might be necessary but all three voting for JG would be my pick.
DIOGENES – Barthes and Gaudi: shows how important it is to turn off the big thoughts before you leave home in the morning.
Lucky you, Boerwar. My fave Plague of Egypt. Drove through mist, mizzle & blinding rain for 6 hrs yesterday. Not one croak! Had c75mm in late Aug. Ditto!
Hope the locusts miss you, though! We’ve already done them this year & I head on TV we might be in for another.
3037: No, his statement is quite clear.
He is backing Labor to form government during the government formation stages, but the agreement lapses if they don’t and he has clearly stated he will ensure supply and confidence to a Coalition government, barring exceptional circumstances.
Ronny wrote:
You are correctomundo, Ronny. It should be:
Makes this scenario even more unstable.
psephos, . may all your wishes come true , all the best for a great day.
E N J O Y !
http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2010/s3003330.htm
Its all over
prissy has been sent in
the secret weapon
spur, he didnt have a blog post or OO article after the costings release. That’s silence
Gecko @3053, if they were that worried about damage control in their electorate (as opposed to worrying about good policy) they also have the opt out of one or two of their number simply agreeing to abstain.
Has anyone done a study of how many male pedestrians have died perving at women?
Third
Happy Birthday, Psephos. It was your website that first got me interested in Australian politics in the first place.
Herr Doktor, what about a big TQ to the Dolphin Families
OzPol Tragic
It is equally sad that the conservative side of Australian politics has slipped. It is good and well to support exisiting institutions and to make policy haste slowly; but to abandon reason and rationality is despairingly sad. When I heart the conservative leader of Australia telling children “it was warmer in jesuses time” my heart breaks.
Wallaroo silos on fire, evacuation for a 3 k radius, I’m gone, dog and family
I remember a couple of Insiders back. It was Fran Kelly, the lady journo from the Sun-Herald (forgotten her name) and George.
Discussion about the potentially (then) dodgy costings went around the table. First Cassidy, then the two women had their say. George opened his mouth to speak, by his opening half a dozen or so words clearly criticising the Coaliton costings, but was silenced by Cassidy as they “had to move on” to the next subject.
I was bloody outraged, especially as the other three had been into the meta politics of the costings issue (e.g. “Who leaked?”, “Why?” “Fairfax papers” etc.) and not the costings themselves, whereas GM was about to get stuck into the meat of them but was cut-off.
He is a bit timid, actually, very socially conservative, but was prepared to have a go until gagged by Cassidy.
Herr Doktor, a bit sad isnt it that only Mum called
@ 3062
That’s true Cud but abstaining would result in another poll, and if not, bring a voter backlash and perhaps leave one of their number wearing the can. Its the only reason I can see as to why they would make a point of it now… particularly as you say they could abstain… but that’s not what they want to do I suspect.
Happy returns also Psephos
Thats the negotiating strategy:
1. Tony Abbott (bad cop- bust heads)
2. Bill Heffernan (bad cop- break arms)
3. Chris Pyne (good cop- special favors)
Gecko, no abstaining wouldn’t result in a new poll.
As I said before, you could have one independent vote with Labor, one go with the Coalition and still another abstain and the net result would be 75-74.
4. Sophie Mirabella – (honey trap)
Jon
Actually I read it in this book. Gaudi lived like an ascetic medieval monk but he was also the most famous avante-garde architect of his time. The book was pretty terrible but Gaudi was very interesting.
http://www.amazon.com/Gaudi-Biography-Gijs-Van-Hensbergen/dp/0060935634/ref=sr_1_5?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1283743419&sr=1-5
The only way we get a new poll is if there is a vote of no confidence in both major parties.
Hello amigos and bludgers
Well not much has changed in the past week, it’s still will they or won’t they and if so who with and for how much!
Damn Undies grr!
Anyway all that is unimportant as I come to grips with my poor beaten Bunnies
Ah well the Swannies are still flying high.
Hope everything is OK
With honey like that, who needs vinegar?
In defense of George M (for what its worth) I think he’s the been entirely reasonable throughout. Always measured and calls it as he sees it, whichever way it goes. You can’t ask for more than that in a democracy… all opinion adds to the mix.
In the interests of balanced reporting, Labor has now drifted back to 1.41, up from the 1.30 I reported a couple of hours ago.
BK, that’s disgusting
@BK, 3073. Oh the shame, the remorse, the humiliation.
Had to laugh, just looked up where Wallaroo was and found out the original aboriginal words meant wallaby pee!
they tried but could not get any feeback from the males
Gecko, having flagged issues with the lib costings, he was silent after they were released
Amigo Vera, it’s good to hear from you. yes, i watched the Swannie came home. it was quite exciting for a Ping Pong game.
Da Rabbits? sorry, gave that up since it has become News Rugby League.
OPT: The weekend rain brought the frogs of Marrickville out in force – plenty of striped marsh frogs spawning in the pond I put in for the purpose. Nothing very directly to do with the election but it made me happy
Anyone care to read anything into todays Crikey “tips and rumours”?
From the AM report:
Labor has readily agreed to Rob Oakeshott’s wish list for parliamentary reform but the Coalition believes some of the proposed changes will entrench the power of the government of the day and reduce an opposition’s ability to call it to account.
So an Abbott government is fighting for the rights of a Labor opposition? Cant see Abbott winning this
Toc Toc
Hi Finns
The Bunnies took News to court after they kicked us out for 2 years and beat the buggers.
Bunny amigos kicked hombre Murdock’s arse
Gotta follow them for that alone (even though I been a Bunny since I was 6)
The independents seem to have talked to just about everybody.
75 – 74 looks like a new poll to me Cud.
Except the voters. Hurry up, already.
There’s a suspicious looking character in a big hat outside of my place as we type…..
Warren calls it
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/independents-will-support-labor-party-says-coalitions-warren-entsch/story-e6frf7kf-1225914729133
vera@3091
The job’s not done yet. You have to kick Rupe out of the NRL (for good)
to finish it…
“Thirded”. Add the Picasso museum; a study in the development of independent genius – at least it was 3 decades ago. And stand at the base of Columbus’s statue looking out to sea. Toledo’s great also, & San Sebastian. Haven’t made it to the Moorish south yet.
It was odd how quickly, after we crossed the Pyrenees, the feeling of being in Europe disappeared – south of BCN, landscape, buildings & tumbleweed blowing across the road looked like something out of an old Western.
Not sure I recommend Madrid. The Prado+Franco’s tomb (latter might’ve disappeared by now) really weirded me out. Many of the P’s pictures have a disturbing violence/ nastiness; so much so I found myself actually searching pictures for evidence of that until I couldn’t take it any longer. Oddly, until the 2nd episode of The Baroque I’d never found anyone who agreed with me. Franco’s tomb was as sick, but in a different way.
Vera,
If you have spare billion you might want to see if YOU can form minority govt.
how about the rodent!
blue green
I’m waiting for our William to form the PB Party so we can whip this sad excuse for a country into shape 
Scary, hope all is okay.
Well Joyce called the election for Labor on election day. Nobody outside the leadership team will have a clue which way the independents are leaning.
How can the independents maintain any source of credibility if they back the coalition given their dodgy costings. That being the case they should just get on with it and back the ALP and put us all out of misery.
Diogs, you should read Robert Hughes’s book on Bcn if you’re interested. He describes Gaudi as a Catholic ecstatic mystic.
Thanks Punna.
And for those who think Big Hat Bob’s mad, try this (from his Leichhardt neighbour, Warren Entsch) for fully rabid:
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/independents-will-support-labor-party-says-coalitions-warren-entsch/story-e6frf7kf-1225914729133
Musrum
Not much chance of getting rid of Murdock if his Melb Storm getting away with rorts is anything to go by.
He didn’t really come to grips with much in those articles you linked spur. There was no great delving into the policies or costings.
and further to that OPT
“The way Tony is going, I agree with him completely. You only agree to what is achievable,” he said.
“There were certain things you can go along with, but when you start talking about some of the things (Bob Katter) is talking about, particularly in relation to trade tariffs, there is no point in even offering them because they are not achievable.”
so we can expect the new Opposition to accuse a JG government of reintroducing tarrifs presumably.
Bingo ! BK Me too
Itep
Did you like the part of the article where Warren says Gillard will do anything to get elected.
The Rabbott on the other hand will only offer what is achievable.
William there seems to be some sort of new Essential poll out
http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/09/06/essential-voters-expect-another-poll-and-expect-the-coalition-to-win/
ALP 51-49
Why is Entsch going the dummy spit BEFORE the big announcement. Not a good look
so tone thinks it a achievable to give a billion dollars for a project that may only cost.
550 million
Still good. And the Fundacio Joan Miro is good too.
Andrew @ 3085
True, true. But he did comment on the ludicrous ‘audit’ scenario from memory. To my mind he tries to avoid politicizing from unknowns and concentrates on what’s out there. Opposition costings are notorious in their ambiguity no matter where they originate from. But I can well understand you being frustrated. Unfortunately, as we’ve just discovered our fellow Australians are diverse in priorities and thoughts. George is entitled to dictate the content of his articles as he sees fit… the bonus is, that what he writes has merit… and this is a good thing. That’s all.
Latest Essential poll is out
51 – 49 for Labor
Dr Good, that would make it 52-48 for the past week
What is Entsch even talking about? Robb already came out and said the Coalition could meet most of Katter’s list.
3073 BK
I am stressed enough without having to contemplate this.
vera
There should be a Royal Commission into this. We know News Ltd is up to its eyeballs.
Essential say THEY provided the most accurate pre-election poll?? Sorry, it was Newspoll, who by the way looks like it will be bang on the money
Most of the 52% wanting a fresh election will be rusted ons from both sides thinking their side will not form government.
I love frogs, have since I was a kid, when there were zillions, coming out after rain like delicious wild mushrooms. A few survived the drought in our sewer line; but we’ve had oodles of croakless rain this year.
Sophie B will offer some stress relief.
It’s either a personal dummy spit because Bob’s next door or he’s laying the foundation for attacks on the government to come. or both.
Makes sense, watch that number drop once a winner is declared
TPP at the moment
ALP 49.98- 50.02
LNP is about 5,000 votes ahead.
I expect that the normal counting of the 142 electorates will put the
Coalition even further ahead, say by about 13,000 votes. That is
ALP 49.95- 50.05.
Then, some of the remaining eight seats are a little hard to estimate
but my best guess is that the ALP will get a nett 31,000 votes from
those seats (down from over 70,000 for those seats in 2007).
Predicted Final result. ALP 50.13- LNP 49.87
(or ALP ahead by about 18,000 votes).
I’m not sure my sanity could take another campaign.
Why does the word ‘succubus’ come to mind…?
Sorry Rocket – we’re all a bit highly strung.
Dr Good, I read that out of the remaining electorates with less than 90% counted (8 seats excepted), 2/3 favour Labor. Why do you assume the coalition will increase its lead
http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/09/06/lessons-in-competence-part-2-the-need-for-speed/#comments
Bernard Keane pointing out the Howard Govt. waste. Labor had heaps of answers to Abbott’s ‘stop the waste’ if only they’d had the wherewithal to use them.
Don’t worry yo ho ho. There won’t be a new campaign. There will be plenty of calls from the losing side’s supporters for a fresh election though
I’ve already seen the first murmurings of it on here.
BG: toc toc to you too.
OPT: The frogs as well as being appealing are of course a reminder of why climate change and other environmental damage matters, they seem to be major canaries in our global coalmine.
And comparisons are odious!
If Bob does back Julia, his Green Power corridor & NBN “from Mt Isa to the sea” really do go marching through Kennedy, and he wins back some fishing rights for “Wild Rivers” in his electorate, the chances of Leichhardt going Indie and/ or Green next election will go sky high – it’s a volatile electorate with changing demographics.
Does First Dog visit this part of Crikey? His latest cartoon (which is free..hooray!) says it all.
The Interregnum comes to town http://bit.ly/bHLHC3
SPECTATOR – Touche – But they could have counted the smiles on their faces.
BH 3133
Indeed, sometimes the truth is the best defence, which becomes problematic when you get unfamiliar with using it.
Good old Mungo in crikey today – it seems more and more people are ganging up on the OO for some reason.
Great news about both FF senate conetenders falling behind on latest counts. I feel the courge of FF can be removed completely if they fail this time.
By next time seante reform will hopefully end the whole “microparties get 1.8%, rig ticket votes” scourge from our system.
I am not sure exactly where people get the information that an
electorate is less than 90% counted from. Certainly there are some
electorates with less than 90% of the enrolled numbers counted.
However, we have to be careful with that as ALP electorates may
be correlated with ones where not so many voters turned up to vote
(and also where there were less formal votes).
I looked at how many non-ordinary votes seem to be sitting there
waiting to be counted towards the TPP count in the 142 seats.
Thus I estimate the final total number for those seats.
I think there are only two seats with less than 90% counted:
Sydney 88.6% and Wentworth 89.8%.
The other thing to note in my spreadsheet is that it is mostly
postal votes that are still to be counted, maybe 200,000 postal votes,
100,000 early votes, 100,000 absents and 10,000 provisionals.
And postal votes often favour Libs even in ALP leaning seats.
Gecko @3093 75-74 in votes of no confidence. In this case Labor would win, just. In other matters the indies would split their own way. It may lead to an early election, but not immediately.
Dr Good, so what you mean is the postals in Lib held seats will increase the gap at a faster rate than the postals in the Labor seats will close it.
And probably not. There will be little incentive to go for an early election because it’d likely limit the next term in some way. I also think there is little chance for a DD as the next election.
Cud @3143
Yep. Do you happen to know when testing the house whether the speaker votes? Is there a speaker at this point?
calm before the storm
Psephos
I flicked through that book one afternoon, just reading the bits about Gaudi.
Hughes also wrote a brilliant book on Goya.
Gecko, electing the Speaker is the first item of business. The Speaker only ever votes in the case of a tie.
No Itep
I mean that even in a seat that favours the ALP like say Kingsford Smith
which is 55-45% ALP overall, the postal votes might favour the Libs,
as they do 55-45% to Libs in that seat.
Thus we have already counted say 93% of the votes in that seat and they
have been added to the national TPP total, but the if the remaining 7% of votes
are mainly postal votes, then when we add them then the Libs will
go further ahead.
Eye of the hurricane.
One reason against going for the pairing arrangement for Speaker/Deputy Speaker is that it presumes they will always be voting with their party. If a Lib Deputy Speaker wanted to cross the floor they’d be barred from doing so.
Thanks Itep & Cud… got it now.
You’ve got to admit that in this situation Julia is the perfect choice, and probably the only leader for decades that could work her way through this scenario. I think it will be the making of her if the cards fall the right way. Exciting times.
Does the pairing require alteration to the constitution?
Gecko,
the constitution states its up to each house to decide the procedures for each house.
If you get my drift.
Do all sides have to agree?
Not quite. They haven’t rung me yet
Bob Carr’s solution
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/gillard-urged-to-appoint-malcolm-turnbull-to-cabinet-20100906-14x4k.html
blue green.. Im not entirely sure about that. I think the constitution mentions the speaker having a casting vote – but I’d have to read it again to know if the House can suit itself in every respect.
pairing is simply getting somebody from the other side to refrain from voting. No consitutional alteration required.
New thread.