A Morgan phone poll has provided further evidence of a late shift to the Coalition to add to that from Galaxy, recording a 51-49 lead to the Coalition which as far as I can tell is the first time they have led in a poll since early 2005. Morgan sceptics should note that there is no reason to believe their phone polls are any less reliable than anyone else’s. The sample is 990, which is superficially highly respectable but seems to include the 327 respondents from the inner-city poll published earlier in the week – if so the margin-of-error is between 3.5 and 4 per cent. The poll has the Coalition leading on the primary vote 44.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent with the Greens on 13 per cent, their weakest showing of any poll in the campaign. John Brumby’s lead as preferred premier has narrowed to 43.5-39, and he has crashed to a minus 12.5 per cent personal rating with 34 per cent approval and 46.5 per cent disapproval. Ted Baillieu is on 40 per cent approval and 39 per cent disapproval.
You can read my final review of the situation in Crikey.
148 Comments
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I voted in the pre-selection for Gidley (Lib in Mt Waverley) even though a polly of his era (factional-young turk) still a decent chap.
William If those fifteen ALP seats you have named all fall then that would leave us with
ALP 40
Green 3
Ind 1
Liberal/Nats 44
.
got my numbers wrong – I meant Labor 42- Green 2- Ind 1- Coalition 43
then it can be like 44-44 if Greens side with Labor
Sorry William I have to disagree. Brunswick in play, Mt. Wavereley, Mitcham, Forest Hill gone, and Gembrook but may prove a suprise, Frankston holding, Prahran Burwood, Mordialloc, sth Barwon too close to call.
RR, that only gets you to 44-44 if the independent sides with the Coalition, in which case they would be voting for deadlock and a new election. Not going to happen.
That said, the Coalition could in fact win back Gippsland East.
William, yes I am sure if Labor-Green are on 44 any independents would feel compelled to support a minority Labor-Green Govt.
If the Coalition has 44, there are no indies, and Labor has 42-43, would the 1-2 Greens likewise “support” a Coalition minority govt, by say accepting role as speaker?
I’m having difficulty getting a seat-by-seat prediction by Sportsbet or Sportingbet. Could anyone give me a clue how to go about it? I get to the sites OK but can’t progress any further. It’s probably my own ignorance, not being much of a “tech head”, about the only thing Rabbott the Luddite and I have in common. Thanks.
I wonder if the Fed Govt latest legislative wins, will help Labor here in Vic?
Wouldnt it hurt victoria??? I mean people have a Federal Labor Govt they can then bash Brumby for his failures
feeney
flemingtonsportsbet seemed to have stopped their seat betting, and the overall result is closing at 10pm – so get on the Coalition at $4-50 (to provide the next Premier)
Glen
I don’t quite get your logic.
Whether or not it involves accepting the role of Speaker, I think it’s pretty much inconceivable that the Greens would back the Coalition in government.
Looking at the information provided by William does seem very positive considering all the polling has shown a swing away from the Government.
Many of the seats that the ALP person quoted by William seems to think will be held are traditionally not ALP seats therefore for the ALP to hold them and yes it is possible but would be a terrible result for the Liberals.
would be nice to get Newspoll early tonight.
Glen in the last federal election the Liberals at no stage ran Kick Brumby by kicking Gillard.
We saw those sorts of campaigns in QLD and NSW but in Victoria the Liberals were quiet which is surprising considering the very close porfessional relationship between Jules and Brumby
Welcome to Poll Bludger, Victoria
mexicanbeemer
yes, that is my point I suppose. Does Gillard help Brumby?
george
Have you made your predictions for tomorrow?
I haven’t changed my opinion – I think ALP will form government in its own right.
george
great to see you are confident.
George is an insider….I agree with him
did not know George was an Insider – pray tel
I read tea leaves… learnt it from my yiayia
george
yiayia is grandmother? Anyhow, I thought yiayia’s read the Turkish coffee?
If George is an insider then how can you believe a word?
I still stand by my prediction of a Brumby majority of 2 with the Greens.
ALP – 45
Green – 1
Coalition 42
That’s Greek coffee thanks Vics.
damn it, it’s late, I’m getting my myths all wrong! .. yes, yes, coffee
I wouldn’t mind greens/ independent holding balance like in Tas, ACT and federal, keeps them accountable and honest. Even the WA govt have found they can’t rely on their partners to pass everything.
A true coalition/ partnership becomes more representative and accountable to the people, if the Nats had stopped being little happy to please puppies to the libs and representative of their constituents then they may have not lost so many seats to independents labor and libs. Too late now, though Crook may reverse the trend.
One thing “believing” in someone’s opinion Glen, another in reading horsesh*t
centaur009
I am pretty sure my Greek friends served me Turkish coffee, and then did readings of the silt in the cup. They never called it Greek coffee
Toso mialo ihane!!!
castle 129
I think this is true throughout Australia – and the Libs are slowly gnawing away at their erstwhile “partners” by slowly winning seats in 3-cornered contests when Nats retire. Crook has I supposed got one “back” – but really the story of the Nats over the last 40 years has been caving in to the Libs and going backwards because (or in spite) of it.
Rocket a drovers dog could win Crook’s seat at the next Federal election providing that Liberal isnts one W. Tuckey
centaur009/George
scusa non capice?
Totally unscientific here, so don’t put too much stock into it but I voice inside my head is telling me that Victoria will have a new Premier soon.
As I said, it’s just a gut thing, no science behind it, so don’t celebrate or despair too much on those words.
Nielsen Poll (Victoria)
Two Party Preferred: Labor 48 (-4) Coalition (+4)
tsop
good grief. what happened to your analytical approach?
Cazzie Grece Shemi
Frank Calabrese
tu sei molto cativo
Glen
O’Connor 2010 – Tuckey 38.4, Crook 28.9, Labor 17.1, Green 8.9
Final TCP – Crook 53.6 to Tuckey 46.4
If Labor preference Crook again surely he has a good chance?
probably what the libs also think of Windsor and Oakeshotts seats too and maybe even Katters seeing as how he has voted with labor, but we will see.
Maybe the people will realise the benefit of having Crook representing their interests instead of some self lubricating piece of vermin like Tuckey.
gwv must mean Lab 48 – Coalition 52 on Nielsen – Big Ted !!
Re: Nielsen Poll (Victoria)
Two Party Preferred: Labor 48 (-4) Coalition (+4) 52
If those figures are replicated tomorrow = Premier Baillieu
tsop
I had the exact same vibe this arvo just before the morgan poll came out, real strong feeling that there will be huge changes on Monday and moment of quite notable depression, given I am a public servant and been doing all the election PIAPs and other excitement it was a very big surprise to a rational person.
Blimey, if it is 48-52 to Lib then it is pretty much all over.
New thread.
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