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Galaxy: 66-34 to Coalition in NSW

I don’t have comprehensive data to hand, but I believe NSW Labor has recorded the worst opinion poll result in Australian history. The Galaxy Research survey of 800 respondents (margin of error about 3.5 per cent) has Labor’s primary vote on 20 per cent (yes, 20 per cent), just five points clear of the Greens. With 51 per cent, the Coalition can make a rare claim to an absolute majority of the primary vote. On two-party preferred, the Coalition has an (I think) unprecedented lead of 66-34, pointing to a swing of over 18 per cent – which if uniform would reduce Labor to about 14 seats out of 93. Though in fact it’s actually worse than that, as optional preferential voting would further starve Labor of Greens preferences.

On top of that, Kristina Keneally’s personal ratings are not what they used to be: she has an approval rating of 30 per cent and a disapproval rating of 62 per cent, putting her in the same sort of territory as Anna Bligh (though we could maybe do with an update on that one). Barry O’Farrell on the other hand would appear to be benefiting from the comparison: he has 53 per cent approval and 33 per cent approval. O’Farrell has a 54-32 lead as preferred premier, which is about as good as it gets for an opposition leader.

Full results from GhostWhoVotes.

UPDATE: I see that Galaxy have asked Greens voters what if anything they will do with their preferences, finding 55 per cent will direct them but 44 per cent will just vote one. This appears to be hardly different from the last election, when about 40 per cent of Greens votes exhausted. However, a) the sample of Greens voters is very small (about 120), and b) the 55 per cent figure presumably includes some who will number more than one box without passing a preference on to either major party.

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  • 1
    Mod Lib
    Posted Saturday, January 22, 2011 at 10:55 pm | Permalink

    ALP target should be getting to 20 seats IMHO.

  • 2
    blackburnpseph
    Posted Saturday, January 22, 2011 at 10:58 pm | Permalink

    Judging by the performance of the government in the electricity enquiry, the ALP vote is about 20% too many.

  • 3
    Steve Annabelle
    Posted Saturday, January 22, 2011 at 11:02 pm | Permalink

    Wow. How low can you go. Maybe some bright spark from Sussex street will roll KK for a new face. Maybe Mat Brown can do better.

  • 4
    blackburnpseph
    Posted Saturday, January 22, 2011 at 11:09 pm | Permalink

    From a psephological point of view, March 26 is shaping up like a night of true electoral carnage. It will be interesting to see:
    - how many seats the ALP can get 50% in
    - how many seats thay get less than 10% in
    - how many seats they come third,
    In all of these categories they will no doubt set a new australian record for one of the two major parties.

    The LC vote will also be interesting as it can be imagined that the ALP will be hard pressed to get booth workers out in seats they don’t hold now. This will translate to losing LC votes as there will be few HTV cards handed out.

  • 5
    Posted Saturday, January 22, 2011 at 11:14 pm | Permalink

    actually the tables have turned

    in a way this like 2007 all over again

    ‘cept the greens will have huge HUGE i say sway on final outcomes

    also i expect afew indies to muddy the waters

    Oh and fatty will do some dickwit act the week before the election

  • 6
    Steve Annabelle
    Posted Saturday, January 22, 2011 at 11:15 pm | Permalink

    My facetious comment re Mat Brown raises a serious issue for Labor. After this election they will be lucky to have 15 seats. However those seats will be filled by deadweights and hacks such as Noreen Hay, Mat Brown et al. One wonders how they will fill a shadow ministry

  • 7
    blackburnpseph
    Posted Saturday, January 22, 2011 at 11:18 pm | Permalink

    Considering the criticism that the Greens have levelled at the NSW govt since 2007, the only honourable course for the Greens would be not to direct prefs to the ALP anywhere in NSW. After all what is the point of saving a few deckchairs when the ship has only its bows left above the waves. The Greens supporting the ALP in anyway will cause some unpleasant attention to be turned on them. They have a chance to stay pure and they should take it.

  • 8
    Posted Saturday, January 22, 2011 at 11:21 pm | Permalink

    Ok

    for the sake of argument

    how many seats does labor have to lose to lose Gvt?

    How many seats concievably could the greens/indies pick up?

    Is the swing statewide or centred in specific areas?

  • 9
    James J
    Posted Saturday, January 22, 2011 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

    The amazing thing is that half of the 20% ALP is not locked in and is soft. Could go lower still. They only have 10% core support. Fairly unprecedented.

  • 10
    Mod Lib
    Posted Saturday, January 22, 2011 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

    I think its 13 seats.

    Greens/indies could pick up a lot of seats but it all boils down to preference exhaustion which is a huge toss up in this election- we havent seen anything like it before so its hard to know what will happen

    swing is everywhere mate, from Qld to Vic, from SA to the sea!!!

  • 11
    Diogenes
    Posted Saturday, January 22, 2011 at 11:28 pm | Permalink

    Gus

    The worst Government in living memory now has the worst polls of any government in living memory.

    And I wouldn’t get too caught up by the numbers.

    As they say in the classics

    A look at the scoreboard will tell you how much you lost by, but only your ass can tell you how bad the whipping was.

  • 12
    Posted Saturday, January 22, 2011 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

    heya dio
    I know you and your fellow travellers are salivating at a nsw victory for the fibs

    you may well be right

    but the greenie factor is skewing the response

    should be acracker of an election tho

    \

  • 13
    Posted Saturday, January 22, 2011 at 11:40 pm | Permalink

    I just looked through Newspoll’s state and federal polls for their worst ever poll results and found only a single poll where the two party preferred would definitely be worse than this one (they didn’t calculate it themselves):

    Newspoll Victoria 3-5 & 17-19 May 1991
    ALP 25 LNP 62 DEM 11 OTH 2

    There is also this one where the 2PP could also be equal to the Galaxy poll:

    Newspoll South Australia Newspoll May-Jul 1992
    ALP 25 LNP 58 DEM 13 OTH 4

  • 14
    James J
    Posted Saturday, January 22, 2011 at 11:44 pm | Permalink

    Is it the lowest primary though?

  • 15
    Posted Saturday, January 22, 2011 at 11:52 pm | Permalink

    James J at 14,

    Newspoll’s two lowest primaries were both recorded by this Government, 23% and 24%.

  • 16
    blackburnpseph
    Posted Saturday, January 22, 2011 at 11:54 pm | Permalink

    I remember being in Melbourne (then being a NSW resident) when that Newspoll came out in 1991. It was noteworthy as the commentary at the time was that the ALP could be entirely wiped out. Even though the ALP were thrashed in 1992, all credit to Joan Kirner for at least saving the furniture.

  • 17
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 12:02 am | Permalink

    Gus

    The worst Government in living memory now has the worst polls of any government in living memory.

    And I wouldn’t get too caught up by the numbers.

    As they say in the classics

    A look at the scoreboard will tell you how much you lost by, but only your ass can tell you how bad the whipping was.

    Given how many times I’ve asked for what is wrong with the nsw govt other than age and the absolute rubbish that comes back when I do – i’m just going to assume you have an absurdly short memory.

  • 18
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 12:09 am | Permalink

    WWP

    its betther to die on your feet,than live on your knees

  • 19
    Diogenes
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 12:13 am | Permalink

    WWP

    Vox populi, vox Dei.

    People who live under this Government have told us that it is the worst ever.

  • 20
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 12:19 am | Permalink

    dio

    is that peeps in SA

    or here in NSW??

  • 21
    Diogenes
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 12:26 am | Permalink

    Gus

    The NSW poll has told us that. Worst poll result ever. Even rusted-on Labor voters have deserted them.

    Gillard et al will be very glad to see them annihilated.

  • 22
    blackburnpseph
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 12:27 am | Permalink

    WWP

    The NSW Government is absolutely incompetent – they have not managed to deliver on any major projects post olympics and have squandered billions of dollars in the process with things like a failed transport ticketing system, and the aborted metro. If you recall, they received no infrastructure funding in 2008 from the Feds because the quality of the submissions was too poor. They have presided over a health system where the hospitals are falling down and new hospitals have had to be partly demolished because they were not fit for purpose. They have been singled out for criticism for their BER delivery. The Sydney train system is a disgrace and the frequencies are worse and kilometres slower than they were 30 years ago. You just need to drive around Sydney to see that the infrastructure has not kept up. There have been a whole series of pplitical scandals ranging from bad personal behaviour to shady deals. And it is possible that the NSW taxpayer has been dudded of billions of dollars by the latest electricity privatisation fiasco.

    They are without doubt the worst government in Australia since WW2 if not earlier – others have had the financial incompetence, or administrative incompetence, or the stench of shady deals, or poor ministerial behaviour. But none, that I can recall, have managed to come up with them all in one government.

  • 23
    Tom the first and best
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 12:28 am | Permalink

    What would happen in the highly unlikely event the Coalition did not get is candidate nominations in? On this poll it looks like the ALP would still loose.

  • 24
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 12:30 am | Permalink

    BBS

    howie dumped 140k of immigrants on sydeny

    for frigging 10+ years

    and he sucked the GST to 40%

    get off the whacky backy

    use facts not bong char

  • 25
    James J
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 12:47 am | Permalink

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/poll-shows-labor-backlash-is-inevitable/story-fn6bm90q-1225992902109

  • 26
    blackburnpseph
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 12:53 am | Permalink

    Gusface – a few facts that you asked for

    Over the last 20 years the population of Sydney has risen 900,000, Melbourne by almost a million – and in Melbourne for 5 or 6 of those years, the rate of growth was almost nil. Or in percentage terms Sydney 20%, Melbourne 30%, Brisbane 65% and Perth 50%.

    The Victorian government also complains about the share of GST cake.

    But in Victoria and the other states, yes there have been infrastructure strains, but the systems – roads, public transport,hospitals – have essentially kept up and the quality of life not significantly diminished.

  • 27
    liberal
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 1:00 am | Permalink

    My Labor MP is Matt Brown. Kiama has a percentage of 12 to Labor, Do you guys think this will fall?

  • 28
    blackburnpseph
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 1:20 am | Permalink

    Liberal

    The Libs have to win seats like Kiama to win the election – looking at the maps and the corresponding federal results I am surprided that the ALP hold it by such a large margin.

  • 29
    Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 6:40 am | Permalink

    My Labor MP is Matt Brown. Kiama has a percentage of 12 to Labor, Do you guys think this will fall?

    liberal:

    Yes. The ALP are apparently concerned that some of the seats they hold on 20% margins (Cabramatta for example) are at serious risk of falling as well. It is hard to explain what is going to happen here but I suspect its going to be like 93 by-elections!

  • 30
    MDMConnell
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 9:02 am | Permalink

    Gusface, you’re just taking the piss to stir up the Liberal supporters round here aren’t you?

  • 31
    Diogenes
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 9:21 am | Permalink

    Gus

    Another number is the total of Labor ministers who have been forced to resign. They were going through one a week for a while there.

    And at least two Labor pollies have been found to be corrupt.

  • 32
    evan14
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 10:07 am | Permalink

    Labor will give up on all seats with margins of 10% or lower, and concentrate their resources on trying to hold the likes of Toongabbie(Nathan Rees) and Granville(David Borger) – what I suspect is the end game of Sussex Street.
    You wonder though if a seat like Cabramatta might go to the Liberals, because the current Labor MP is a useless ethnic factional hack, and the Liberal candidate is quite impressive.

  • 33
    evan14
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 10:08 am | Permalink

    My Labor MP is Matt Brown. Kiama has a percentage of 12 to Labor, Do you guys think this will fall?

    Doubt it!
    I bet Brown and Noreen Hay survive the carnage.

  • 34
    evan14
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 10:16 am | Permalink

    Labor ministers who will lose their seats?
    Frank Terezini – Maitland
    Verity Firth – Balmain
    Phil Costa – Wollindilly
    Carmel Tebutt – Marrickville
    Steve Whan – Monaro(which would be a shame, as he’s by all reports a good local MP).
    If the swing is huge – Michael Daley in Maroubra, David Borger in Granville?

  • 35
    Mytwobobsworth
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 10:18 am | Permalink

    Evan

    What would be your tip for East Hills and Oatley?

  • 36
    Barking
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 11:15 am | Permalink

    The one great positive is that there will be a whole lot more of the ALP type voter who will this time vote Green, many will continue the habit, ensuring Greens Senators form NSW for a long time.
    The only other positives is that there will be a huge number of incompetent wacky Lib one termers who will get huge swings against them in 2014 making fattys second term a lame duck operation and with the Fibs back in Federally a ALP victory likely in 2018 IF they get rid of the dead weight and return to their core.

  • 37
    Frankie V.
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 11:40 am | Permalink

    I just can’t see the latte left turning on Carmel Tebbutt, let alone a fellow traveler like Verity Firth. The end result will most likely be zero Greens and a few less independents. It is of course only of academic interest as the Libs won’t need the support of the National Party, let alone the cross-benchers.

  • 38
    blackburnpseph
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 11:44 am | Permalink

    Will the ALP be preferencing the Greens on March 26 or will they leave an open ticket?

  • 39
    Mytwobobsworth
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 11:49 am | Permalink

    Frankie V.

    I wouldn’t be too sure of that if I were you. The inner city left are the most demanding of voters. They think of themselves as the most important of voters. They have paid a fortune for their properties and think that what they wish for should be granted – loyalty to a political party is not their first priority.

    If Lindsay Tanners seat could go federally anything is possible with that lot.

  • 40
    al palster
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 11:52 am | Permalink

    This Galaxy poll is not news. Internal party polling has the ALP reduced to around 11 seats.( that polling was around in Nov last year when I posted the information on this site). Batty will be a three term Premier – at least.

  • 41
    quantize
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 12:10 pm | Permalink

    Frankie V.

    you’re wrong…as a former state Labor voter, I can tell you the Greens are going to take Balmain, probably for the first time.

    The last election was the final straw.

  • 42
    quantize
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 12:12 pm | Permalink

    Also it’s absolutely worth noting, you will hardly find a single sydney sider who is enthusiastic for a Liberal government. They have been revoltingly lazy and inept..just not on the scale of Labor.

    It will only be a surprise if they do anything good, much less if they are able to keep the christian loons in their ranks under control

  • 43
    Frankie V.
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 12:21 pm | Permalink

    quantize @ 42

    It will only be a surprise if they do anything good, much less if they are able to keep the christian loons in their ranks under control

    Ha, Ha. Here come the Dan Brownesque conspiracy theories.

  • 44
    Mytwobobsworth
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 12:45 pm | Permalink

    quantize

    Also it’s absolutely worth noting, you will hardly find a single sydney sider who is enthusiastic for a Liberal government. They have been revoltingly lazy and inept..just not on the scale of Labor.

    You are spot on! I was with two friends yesterday who were long time ALP Members the third of us still holds a ticket. They are saying the Hunter is in real trouble as well.

    Interestingly and sadly (I mean that sincerely) none of us know who to vote for.

  • 45
    al palster
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 12:57 pm | Permalink

    Bartlett to resign as Tas Premier,today.

  • 46
    Boerwar
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 1:21 pm | Permalink

    What sort of a bounce, if any, will Gillard get from the disappearance of NSW Labor?

  • 47
    Mytwobobsworth
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 1:26 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar

    None will be my guess! The very same people who ruined the NSW Government are now in charge Federally. It is enough to break your heart.

  • 48
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 2:18 pm | Permalink

    There must be an election coming for we have the Greens again talking up how many seats they will win.

    I reckon the ALP will win between 20-30 seats for there are large parts of Sydney that just never politically change, this also applies to the Hunter-Newcastle and Wollongong regions

    The Liberals will bascially win every state seat corresponding with a federal area that they were successful at winning during the Howard years.

    The Greens will only win a seat if the Liberals preference them, hopefully they don’t

  • 49
    James J
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 2:21 pm | Permalink

    ALP primary is down 19% but only 6% of that has gone to the Greens. Pretty poor performance by the Greens.

  • 50
    mexicanbeemer
    Posted Sunday, January 23, 2011 at 2:22 pm | Permalink

    James J – I think the Victorian election has shown that the Greens are overhyped for when the results came in the expected swing to them even in the inner city went instead to the Liberals

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