GhostWhoVotes reports the final pre-election Newspoll provides yet more evidence that the campaign hasn’t changed a thing: the Coalition primary vote is at 50 per cent (unchanged on the last Newspoll), Labor is on 23 per cent (down three) and the Greens are on 12 per cent (up one). The two-party preferred result is 64-36, compared with 63-37 in the previous Newspoll. Kristina Keneally’s approval is down a point to 33 per cent, and her disapproval up one to 59 per cent; Barry O’Farrell is down a point on approval to 48 per cent and up two on disapproval to 39 per cent. O’Farrell’s lead as preferred premier is up from 48-35 to 48-32. More to follow, hopefully (metro and non-metro breakdowns in particular would be appreciated).
UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes reveal nothing new. We will no doubt be hearing more from The Australian tomorrow.
UPDATE 2: It seems for every poll showing Labor getting away with 63-37 or 64-36, another has come along showing it at 66-34. Step forward Galaxy, which has Labor at 22 per cent of the primary vote (down one on three weeks ago), the Coalition at 51 per cent (steady) and the Greens at 12 per cent (down two). The poll was roughly Newspoll-sized, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 1000 with a margin of error of 3 per cent. Barry O’Farrell leads as preferred premier 53-33 – 20 points compared with Newspoll’s 16. The poll 53 per cent favouring Kristina Keneally as leader over John Robertson (13 per cent) and Michael Daley (11 per cent).
319 Comments
Nick Lalich, how desperate can you get? http://img801.imageshack.us/img801/1366/19684710150184325198385.jpg
Amazing that there has been no narrowing. The completely negative ALP campaign has been a massive failure.
Gus
He’s on the horizon.
http://www.unithistories.com/officers/bio/german/Wenck02.JPG
Any campaign from Labor would be a failure, surely.
The brand was trashed some time ago.
Dio
HA
Here are the tables:
http://ghostwhovotes.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/newspoll-110325-nsw.pdf
Well the coalition seem to have peaked on a primary vote of 50%. KK can draw maximum comfort from that.
Never has so much money been spent and so much effort expended for so little result. The last 6 weeks have been a waste of time. The electorate made its mind up months if not years ago.
I revise my prediction downwards to 15 seats for ALP. Given Mr Lalich’s efforts of the last few days I would not be surprised to see Cabramatta fall to the Libs.
Here’s the last page of an overlong “Illawarra Mercury” Editorial which recommends its readers vote for Independent David Bradbery in the seat of Wollongong. It is interesting that the editors failed to acknowledge their own significant efforts to promote Mr. Bradbery’s candidacy for the past 12 months.
As someone mentioned on the last thread, when there’s a landslide, MLA Independents have a negligible role to play in that Parliament, but that might change in 2015 ala Nick Greiner’s second term reliance on Independents Hatton, Moore and MacDonald to stay in power.
The editors comments about sitting ALP member Noreen Hay are, sadly, not wide of the mark.
Btw, also last thread, EddieWard asked for what union Shellharbour’s ALP candidate, Anna Watson, works as an Organiser: it’s the United Services Union.
Here’s the link for that “Illawarra Mercury” editorial, if you’re in need of an aid to get to sleep.
http://www.illawarramercury.com.au/news/local/news/opinion/why-labor-must-go-and-we-need-a-new-mix/2113693.aspx?storypage=4
http://www.2ue.com.au/blogs/2ue-blog/dirty-politics-in-cabramatta-campaign/20110324-1c84m.html
If Labor is to be reduced to the size of a cricket team, you’d hope it’s at least their best remaining 12 or 13 MPs, and in my book – that wouldn’t include Nick Lalich.
Overall, I’m resigned to what’s going to happen on Saturday – the only remaining suspense about this election will be the size of the massive swing against the ALP.
Evan,
What you said.
Wollongong’s Noreen Hay wouldn’t be included in anybody’s Parliamentary “Dream Team” either.
All the same, interesting to see the composition of the new Legislative Council.
I saw Peter Debnam state in a tv interview today that O’Farrell will have no mandate to implement reforms because he missed a golden opportunity to put them before the voters. The Leg. Council could justify rejecting bills on that basis.
If O’Farrell goes the mongrel, like Greiner did, then the ALP revival will commence upon the next by-election.
Galaxy Poll
Two Party Preferred: Labor 34 Coalition 66
Primary Votes: Labor 22 Coalition 51 Greens 12
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/nsw-election-2011/therell-barely-be-a-labor-party-left-after-the-election/story-fn7q4q9f-1226027698798
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bcLazPauA1c
What’s the worst thrashing in post-War history?
Diogenes at 16,
Antony Green did a blog post on the topic.
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2011/03/the-largest-swings-in-australian-history-the-measuring-post-for-nsw-2011.html
The 1955 Victorian Labor government suffered a 14.6% swing against it when the party split.
That’d be SA ’93 – the Libs got 61% TPP.
I think Lynn Arnold will be feeling a bit better about himself in a couple of days’ time…
Er, William, I am loathe to point out any errors as you are infallible, so it must be those Crikey subbies who in the heading noted the Galaxy Poll result as “66-44″.
That’s the sort of maths Sussex Street could do.
Considering this election was going to be lost by the ALP in 2007 when they elected a card board cut out as premier, then replaced him with other cardboard cutouts for the next 3 years so why has any pollster wasted a second doing their dopey little polls.
#19
Not used to writing 34 in two-party splits. Corrected.
Editorials
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/nsw-must-emerge-from-labors-heart-of-darkness/story-e6frg71x-1226027673435
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/editorial/nsw-is-overdue-for-change-and-renewal-20110324-1c8fd.html
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/its-time-for-a-state-cleanout/story-e6frezz0-1226027642550
How is it possible that the ALP PV is ~13% lower in NSW than in Federal Polls yet the Greens vote is unchanged. Have they not picked up 1% of the mass that have abandoned Labor?
Surely this is a sign of one of the worst Greens campaigns in recent history. I mean imagine running a campaign without a Leader: its madness.
I now doubt they will pick up a single lower house seat.
Dio 3
I think even Manstein couldn’t do much without fresh troops in this contest. Mind, the red army ranks are looking a lot thinner these days.
Arnold should never feel bad about that. Arnold didn’t send SA broke. Nobody other than Bannon, and a host of former treasury and bank officials, should feel guilty about that one.
Now the ALP has decided to try to take their own out, Della Bosca don’t want Rees to be one of the few ALP members left.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/rees-was-affair-leaker-claims-della-bosca-20110324-1c8m5.html
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/nsw-election-2011/therell-barely-be-a-labor-party-left-after-the-election/story-fn7q4q9f-1226027698798
But the poll, of 1000 voters taken on Tuesday and Wednesday nights, found the result will be more a rejection of Labor than an endorsement of Mr O’Farrell.
Sixty nine per cent thought the Coalition would win because Labor deserved to lose.
Only 24 per cent believe the Coalition deserved to win.
Pessimistic senior Labor sources appeared to back the poll yesterday, saying they were regarding only eight to nine seats as “safe” and a further 14 as “winnable”.
The key reasons for Labor’s defeat, voters thought, were mismanagement [35 per cent], followed by the “it’s time” factor [23 per cent].
Eighteen per cent believed that the defeat would come because of too many scandals, 14 per cent because of too much influence by backroom people and 8 per cent because of poor leadership.
shepherdmarilyn
The ALP cutout was better then the Liberal cutout in 2007. If only Brogden had kept his hands to himself, NSW, NSW ALP and NSW Liberals would all be better off. So the NSW ALP post election script will just say it is Brogden’s fault
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/fiona-byrne-dodges-on-israel-boycott/story-fn59niix-1226027734069
The Australian’s love affair with Fiona Bryne continues, all Liberal supporters should preference the ALP in this seat
Fiona Byrne, the Greens candidate in the inner-western Sydney seat of Marrickville, initially denied to The Australian she had agreed to address the “Sing Out Against Apartheid: Boycott Divestment and Sanctions” rally outside Sydney’s Town Hall next Wednesday.
“Fiona has not agreed to speak at any events next week,” a Greens spokesman responded to inquiries. However, after being shown a flyer for the event, a Greens spokeswoman said: “I can confirm that earlier this month Fiona accepted an invitation to speak at the event as the (Marrickville) Mayor. This week Fiona decided to clear her diary to take a break after the election, and she extended her apologies to the event organiser that she could no longer speak at the event.”
Some foolhardy soul was brandishing a poster of Pauline Hanson (looked circa 1996) on the northern approach to the Harbour Bridge this morning
While I don’t normally comment too much on road safety vs speed cameras, this is another example of bad government in NSW: the Cabinet Budget Committee has reduced the margin for enforcement on speed cameras to 2 km/hr:
http://smh.drive.com.au/motor-news/revealed-margin-for-error-on-speeding-reduced-to-zero-20110324-1c8kp.html
This is pure revenue raising and has nothing to do with road safety. Properly used I support speed cameras, and agree that the policing of speeding in urban areas contributes to road safety. But there is NO EVIDENCE that a speed difference of 2 km/hr makes any difference to road safety. There can’t be – there is no data. You couldn’t even detect a 2 km/hr speed differential when anaylsing a crash scene. I fear that this sort of cash grab can be counter-productive for road safety – making drivers cynical about speed cameras and less likely to obey speed limits when there is not a camera present.
The price of a bad govenment. The opposition has over 43 billion of unfunded promises that are passing almost without scrutiny:
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/state-election-2011/coalition-looks-to-future-to-fund-68b-poll-promises-20110324-1c8jo.html
The Parramatta Epping money in 75% Federal, and is project specific i.e. not transferrable. Likewise the chance of a convention centre/exhibition centre making money on its own is zero, so the PPP will only go ahead with government subsidy or transfer of State land for nix.
Doh! Critical spelling error on 32: should be $3 billion, not 43 bilion.
Socrates – Why wouldn’t the Federal Government sit down with NSW when the election is over to determine which rail network is more needed in western Sydney?
@24
Probably Federal factors result in the Greens being seen as too close to Labor, and people want to make 110% sure there’s no chance of Labor sneaking back in with Green/Ind support.
Fiona Byrne’s fruitloopery seems to have done alot of damage to the Greens’ attempted “soft face” image as well.
The key issue here is that there has not been the wieght of expectations attached to a Greens breakthrough as there was in the victorian election.
The polls have been consistent and I do not expect that the Greens vote will be below the level in the latest polls. (My memory is that the Essential Poll in the Federal election was actually below the vote they recorded at a national level.)
The other curiousity is that if the victorian experience is anything to go by you might expect that the final percentage for the Greens after counting is completed will be up to half a percentage point above their vote at the close of counting on Saturday night.
Socrate
In my opinion, speed camera probably causes accident.
I have seen a lot of cars braking hard when they get near the speed camera, and I know I spend my time checking my speed when I am near one. if someone brakes in front of me, when I am near a camea, I could easily have an accident
The Victorian and NSW state elections are wholly different. In Melbourne state seat, if there had been the same sort of swings against Labor as is in NSW, it would have been a Greens vs Liberal race and Greens would have won on Labor preferences.
Good to see the Greens holding the Coalition’s promises on Part 3A to account – it is a hot issue around these parts.
Did anyone notice in the SMH yesterday – “In the Herald – 1937″ – “The NSW Cabinet rejected a proposal for construction of a railway from Eastwood to St Leonards. The Premier, Bertram Stevens, said a good road costing 100,000 pounds would serve present needs and that in a few years, the government might review the idea”.
The more things change, the more they stay the same!
Any thoughts on the Legislative Council? This will surely be much more significant than whether the ALP has 22 seats or 25.
A few in this blog have mentioned the high ethical standards of Mr Nick Lali?. I was particularly affronted by the attempt to smear Dai Le, a refugee from post-war Vietnam. Looking at her and my local Liberal candidate, another Asian-Australian, makes me realise Barry O’Farrell is no Tony Abbott. Nobody has gone to the gutter with regards to Nick, by accusing him of association with Captain Dragan. Shame, Nick, shame.
I’m expecting a repeat of SA to happen. The ALP almost won four years later in 1997. It’s a similar situation here, where the Libs rarely win State Elections. Since 1968, they have had a single term from 1979 – 1984 and then the landslide Election in 1993 and scrapped in 1997.
Think of some of the crap pots that will be elected in the landslide. Not being able to meet expectations and then the Libs will do what they always do, sell everything off, privatize and contract out. People do not want that. They want services.
What might seem a landslide now, won’t last.
Am I the only one feeling really down today! Whatever happened to the once great Party which has now become usurped by the political class.
Scott love your Keating photos. Them were the days!
Shellbell
O’Farrell has said nothing about using the money from Parramatta Epping to fund other rail lines in western Sydney. If you follow the timeline in the Liberal statements, they are ripping money out of Parramatta Epping now, and maybe building a NW rail line later (2013/14+). So it is not a case of changing where they spend the rail money. They are just canning a rail project and assuming they can use the money for something else.
Besides, regardless of the politics behind its rapid introduction, Parramatta Epping is not a bad project. It needs doing, as does NW Sydney rail. you can’t just tack NW Sydney onto the end of the network. For the extra trains from it to reach the CBD, more track capacity is needed closer in as well.
Reality will dawn next week, when the real state of NSW finances and the deals are releases. ICAC will need more staff
MTBW – this is the best chance you can get for a new beginning. What would be really depressing is if there is no change post the election.
Socrates – I think we agree but a bit of team work on the best plan would be a good idea
KK still fighting
she is one tough cookie
It will be interesting to see how the Coalition dictatorship will operate in NSW.
No doubt it will start out very hairy chested, masking unpopular decisions with declarations of war against the Gillard Government.
After a little while the O’Farrell despotism will become tentative and timid as it tries to preserve its vast backbench by pleasing everyone and offending no-one.
Meanwhile, the poor old Labor Party, battered, broke and bereft of its best brothers and sisters, will be impotent and irrelevant for decades to come.
And the Greens will look in the mirror and say ‘How good are we!’ as they march in all directions to nowhere.
Feeling very depressed too – I’ll only vote tomorrow to avoid getting fined $55 by the electoral commission, but I’ll be doing it without any enthusiasm or faith in the democratic process.
The prospect of Fatty O’Farrell running a dictatorship in this state for the next 10 years fills me with dread!
How will it be irrelevant for decades to come? That is what they said here in SA in 1993. Labor almost won in 1997! Why? Because the Liberals do not know how to manage a state and listen to the people.
The swing can come back the other way – just as hard.
I bet the Libs will sell off Sydney Water and the rest of the Electricity assets.
Not much chance of that if Labor after the weekend is reduced to a rump of non-entities like Nick Lalich & Noreen Hay, with that hack Robbo running the show.
Better get used to 2 decades of Coalition dominance.
wtf
that makes my ramblings seem tame
if fatty wins it will be a oncer
KK is secretly campaigning for the next election
I don’t even expect Nathan Rees, David Borger and Andrew McDonald will survive the weekend annihilation, and almost none of the fresh candidates Labor had selected will be elected(with the exception of one or two).
It’s Ground Zero, very ground zero!
I love how everything keeps saying it’s the end of Labor in NSW. It won’t be. The Government will not be able to handle such a huge amount of MP’s and I bet quiet a few crackpots.
As for the Greens…….they’ll be completely irrelevant, even if they win 2 lower house seats.
I think they might come to regret not doing a preference swap deal with Labor in the Upper House.
It will be irrelevant because it is no longer the Labor Party of old, when it really stood for something, and therefore lacks the ability to renew itself.
Modern political parties lack ideals and are simply marketing machines.
Kim Beazley senior once said something like: “The Labor Party used to consist of the cream of the working class; now it’s the dregs of the middle class.”
On an upper house preference deal with the Greens – unlikely to yield anything for the ALP – Greens that want to support the ALp by passing on preferences will do so and those who don’t would have been most unlikely to do anything just because the party recommended it.
Anthony Green has pointed out that under the current voting system such preferences are unlikely to make much difference in any case.
Greens directing preferences to Labor in Coogee, Toongabbie & Granville – might make a difference?
Remember, Politicians are like underpants, At first they are uncomfortable and restrictive, then they settle in but if you don’t change them oftem enough they start to stink and cause problems.
I’m hoping to see a new face in the seat of Sydney. Adrian Bartels (Lib) is a breath of fresh air. Clover is too old, too green and too out of touch. It’s the nursing home for that old brood mare.
Has anyone done the numbers on how many labor party staffers will get the boot? this will be a major blow to NSW labor infrastucture and ability to organise for the next federal election
Evan 14 Depends on the exhaust rate doesn’t it – the evidence of the Penrith bye-election doesn’t create a lot of room for hope for the ALP candidates
Keneally is a good leader (as was Rees) but nobody’s listening any more.
Parties can recover from cataclysmic defeats. Canada’s Progressive Conservatives (a non-sequitor if ever there was one) were reduced to something like three MPs under FPTP a few elections back but now run a minority national government.
On the other hand, Britain’s Liberal Party in 1914 held 216 seats in parliament and governed the country; by 1935 it was down to a score of members and never really recovered (though now as the Liberal Democrats, having previously merged with the Social Democrats, descendants of the Liberals are now in a coalition with the Conservatives and awaiting the wrath of voters for breaking key election promises).
Kevrenor – I agree the legislative council is more interesting than the LA, however due to preferences the final result won’t be known for a while, and the eventual result – barring a Lib landslide, is almost random.
There is a low threshold to getting elected and there are several minor party and independents – both from the left and right who as a result of preferences might get across the line.
There was a member of “A better future for our children” party elected a while ago, purely because both Lab and Libs – presumably liking the idea of a better future for our children/animals/apple pie/whatever , sounded harmless.
To Scott saying that many crackpots will be elected, that only happens when it is a surprise win. Ie the party doesn’t care who nominates for some safe opposition seat because they are not going to win. Then all of a sudden there is a massive swing and someone is ‘accidently’ elected.
That wont happen here. It has been clear for years that a thumping is coming, no seat has been considered impossible for the Libs (althought there are a dozen or so that are considered highly likely Labor).
Lets say we all wake up on Sunday with a Labor win (Ha!), or even a narrow Liberal win. That would result in a whole bunch of surprise/accidental (from the party machine view) elected ALP MP’s – some of whom may well fit the category of crackpots).
Crackpots are always elected. Often in the safest of seats!
TT @ 60
The Canadian Progressive Conservatives did go down to 2 seats – losing seats to the Canadian Liberals, Bloc Quebecois but most importantly they lost their Western heartland to the Reform party. I think the PCs got back to 12 seats before being swallowed by Reform – the new entity being rebadged Conservative. It sort of is, but is sort of not a descendant of the previous entity.
If it is as bad as it quite could be, Labor will be severly injured but they will not be dead. A lot of the heartland will come back in 4 years. The big question will be what will Labor learn (both in NSW and federally) from a rout? Will the Federal party have the cojones to intervene and clean the NSW party out?
How do we save ourselves being held to ransom by the *true* crackpots CDP/Shooters?
Should we urge towards a coalition majority since Labor isn’t going anywhere??
I agree the will be some crackpots on the Lib Nats side, not because they didn’t think they would win, but because they were carefully preselected by the Lib/Nat party machines.
Having said that, I think that apart from socially conservative changes like closing the safe injecting room and stopping the Ethics classes in schools, there won’t be many changes.
If anything they will be overcautious – not wanting to be oncers.
Evan I am hoping like hell that you are wrong on that! They will be the core of a Party move back to something resembling what the Labor Party used to be!
My big fear is that some in the ALP will not learn a thing from a massive defeat and will still appoint relatives friends and hangers on to any jobs available.
This morning I got a call from an elderly neighbour life long Labor voter and long time Labor Party member but not for quite a while. She has prepolled and told me she couldn’t bring herself not to vote Labor in the Lower House but voted John Hatton’s ticket in the Upper House. The fact that a life long Labor voter had to force herself to vote ALP in the Lower House tells you something and she isn’t the only one I know doing that.
A friend in the Hunter region has sent a few emails this morning saying a group of them are toying with the idea of forming an organisation of Party members to fight back against those who have brought us to this point. He has already registered two domain names and they are talking of organising a public meeting.
I have emailed him asking if I can give details on here and will wait for his reply.
At least Roozendaal will be gone in a few months! His parliamentary pension becomes due then and that is the reason he is No 1 on the Upper House ticket not that he is self indulgent at all!
My elderly neighbout got a mechanised call from Barry O’Farrell this morning and I got one from Bob Hawke that dropped out before it was finished – symptomatic of the whole Party at the moment I would have thought! We are in East Hills.
Perhaps they could invite Arbib and his cohorts to do that perhaps!
http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/03/25/nsw-election-labor-may-field-a-team-but-no-12th-man/
William on Crikey this arvo!
Hi people, I’m a mate of “mytwobobsworth” and from the Hunter. We are fed up to the back teeth with the NSW Branch and we are forming a Reform movement in the Hunter.
I am aware of a “members” meeting to be held on Saturday 2nd April 2011 to set up a grass roots movement in the inner west of Sydney. I will be able to post the details soon.
I am in the Swansea electorate and our candidate, Robert Coombs, is doing very well. I have got to know Robert over the last 4 years. He is hard working and a good local member. He has had enough of the factional system and is committed to reform. The Lib is running dead. We are doing well here and I expect Robert to retain the seat.
Charlestown – Matthew Morris will be defeated (I hope) thus ending the Morris dynasty. He has been an unseen member living in Sydney most of the time. The old boy has been upset with him for a while. Not a great loss.
Maitland – the Lib Robyn Parker will win this – a good operator and not a redneck fascist.
Newcastle – Jodi Mackay is a very good campaigner and Independent and Mayor of Newcastle John Tate is on the nose. Should be close.
Wallsend – Labor to retain but a very lacklustre member is Sonia – wont contriburte much to the Reform that is needed and just a “seat warmer”.
Lake Macquarie – Independent Greg Piper will retain easily. A good local member and respected in the community. I wish Labor had good candidates like this? The Labor candidate Mariani has been appalling in his personal attacks on Piper and they haven’t gone down at all.
Cessnock – this one is interesting. ALP candidate has done very well. Hard one as the Nats have the Mayor running and even though she is in her 70′s she will proberly take this.
jarama
Sertse
Too late, ALP have been giving a lot of freebies to the Shooters for the last 4 years to get legislations through
This is from an old mate who has been a party activist for nearly 35 years. Its a goiod take on how Labor supporters and members can look at the advancing Tsunami of defeat:
“I awoke this morning and it occured to me that tomorrow I will be very grateful to the electors for leaving Labor, in order that we can reclaim Labour. They are doing us and themselves a big favour, and you know, I think people know that.
You can’t make an omlette without breaking an egg, and the HO eggs need breaking !
So, comrades, tomorrow, be happy! Smile and greet voters with a big thank you!
Be proud, be grateful at the opportunity our friends and neighbours are giving us and themselves to fix this mess.
It’s OK, we can do “a season or two in the wilderness”. Labour people can do that.
We’ve done it before and we are about to do it again.
But what an opportunity it presents for representative democracy for branch members and supporters, to start again! It feels like 1890 all over again!
There is a light on the hill, and it burns bright for participative democracy.
It is not the light of back room plotters, spivs and hacks; their’s is the dark light of self interest.
Come, let’s reform this great movement….”
jarama
Tomboy @ 40
I’ll give it a go:
Nick Lalich is Phuong Ngo’s best mate – he’d do anything for Phuong.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/that-one-day-in-september/2008/11/14/1226318927537.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Gusface @ 51
. . . in Ohio.
“Will the Federal party have the cojones to intervene and clean the NSW party out?”
Perhaps you should be asking, will the people who use to control the NSW party, eventually clean the federal party out as well?
Focus groups, poll driven and replaceable PM?
Some great comments here!
I’ll be back in a few hours with some last minute goss.
if she wears red shoes, we know it aint kansas
Invite? They should be insisting. They can start by disendorsing him and letting him go when his term expires.
Kudos to socrates. We may share some reminisces from Budget Estimates tomorrow night.
Frankie V – that is gold on the Meagher preselection. I suspect you are having a dash of schadenfreude in your Ouzo tomorrow night? With Arbib out the door, Federal ALP intervention in the NSW ALP becomes imperative for Gillard to survive in 2014.
Good form with the TISM link yesterday too! You might have warned us though – I was in a Public Library. The HSC kids got a musical education.
I’ve always wondered why nobody did a slideshow of Kristina to the Gillian Welch song: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NPEj63d0jY
Sorry, I meant Karl Bitar, not Mark Arbib. Word is Bitar will be replaced by a Queenslander. Dark days ahead for public ownership. Roll on public squalor.
I thought Bitar’s replacement had already been announced?
Yeah it has, I’m just being a slack bastard on a Friday afternoon who’s knocked off for the weekend. And what a weekend it will be.
The ALP has at least two votes in North Sydney: shellbell and Thomas Keneally OA.
Heard Bruce Baird dismiss the “cricket team” theory for the Labor party on Sat. Said they’d get “much more.” Any thoughts folks?
THiS LiNK iS SAFE FOR WORK
How does one find out what the final LC ballot looks like and what it means?
Pritam Sekhon: Go to: http://candidates.elections.nsw.gov.au/default.aspx
Group C is led by former Ind MP John Hatton, and Group contains former One Nation Pauline Hanson.
Click on each group for more details
Something to watch out for on Saturday Night….
Will the CDP outpoll the ALP in any seat?
Eddie – I am splitting the ALP lower North Shore vote by voting in Willoughby
Two votes for the ALP on the north shore is two more than they deserve from around here. Royal North Shore has great staff but is held together by sticky tape and string and the Spit Bridge is a joke.
Sorry for the OT post but great TISM. I remember seeing this on rage and almost wet myself…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiHdpAVIHgo
eddieward
I still have the poster advertising the May 1998 Sydney TISM gig I took from a shop window opposite the Cat and Fiddle hotel in Balmain if you interested let me know as I would like to see it go to a real fan..
Well Baird would say that wouldn’t he – trying to preempt any late surge of a sympathy vote for the ALP. Graeme Richardson was suggesting the ALP would get 18 seats. perhpas an AFL team rather than a cricket team?
There is a candidate on the Green’s web page who looks like Mandrake the Magician. Does anyone know who he is and does he do private parties?
OC
In which seat is Mandrake doing his magic?
Time for the Blackburnpseph Predictions
Seats that I think Labor Will Win:
Auburn, Bankstown, Blacktown, Canterbury, Fairfield, Granville, Heffron, Lakemba, Liverpool, Macquarie Fields, Mount Druitt, Shellharbour, Smithfield, Toongabbie, Wallsend (15)
ALP seats that I can’t pick – it will be down to handfuls of votes:
Cabramatta, Keira, Marrickville
ALP to lose Charlestown (to Lib or Ind – not sure), Balmain (to Lib or Green – not sure).
Independents to win Northern Tablelands, Lake Macquarie, Blue Mountains, Newcastle, Wollongong. Possible loss of Clover Moore to Libs in Sydney could be the Boilover of the night. Inds to lose Dubbo, Port Macquarie, Tamworth
In Summary:
Libs/ Nats 66-71
ALP 15 – 18
Inds 6 – 8
Greens 0 -2
Labor desperation in Kogarah: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/25/3174092.htm?site=sydney
You mean the things you actually did Cherie – and then lied about – and then threatened to purger yourself in court by taking legal action against those reporting the truth?
My brother in law has worked as a gardener at Royal north shore for the 18 years. The place is falling to bits whilst the private hospital run by Ramsey flourishes.You could not seriously vote Labor in North Sydney oor Willoughby if you cared about health the Government has totally ignored it, transport and Education in the area. The schools at Infants and Primary level are bulging as there has been no planning in that respect for twenty years.
The best thing about this election will be watching ICAC go into gear over the next twleve months because quite a few or our esteemed machine folk will be getting some free accomodation. When you work in the property industry like I do the stuff that has gone on there is totally out of control and carpetbaggers have run the joint particularly after Carr left office. Kenneally was in the thick of it as planning minister devleopers just knew they could get those extra few floors above FSR when they needed just a little bit of wedge here and there and it wasnt just happening in Wollongong but everywhere.
The guys I deal with from the indigenous land councils have just gotten totally sick of all the crooks running around trying to pick up their indigenous land titled sites for a song and get the rezones from the ALP mates.
ICAC fun re
Barrangaroo,
Catherine Hill Bay
Currawong,
and literally dozens more
The spiders and snakes are going to all come oozing of the box and there will be plenty of media coverage when it happens which will have the effect of “Guaranteeing” the Liberals two terms. They will have to watch the Nationals on the coastal areas though as they cannot help themselves when it comnes to land deals and special rezonings.
I look forward to negating Shellbells Labor vote in willoughby tomorrow very early art Willoughby Park. Mind you Labor will be luck to get 15% of the primary in Willoughby and Gladys is one of the best Barry has.
Ray Hadley has run a very personal campaign against Cherie Burton – all rather defamatory, but it’ll pay off for his Liberal mates.
Overall…………very depressed about tomorrow night!
Put it this way……….I’ll be getting very drunk………..;)
Channel 9′s Kevin Wilde: Labor will win 18 seats, including Toongabbie & Granville.
Let’s all hope for the good of the Party!
Evan 14
Ray Hadley had David Borger on his show today and stated categorically thar David Borger was an outstanding minister one of the best he has seen and strongly recommended that the voters of Granville should reelect him.
He was bemused as am I that Borger is not talked about as a future leader, I reckon he could bring some real credibility back to the ALP if lucky enough to be elected tomorrow
….. except Monaro & maybe Coogee (if Eddie is right ) Labor will lose most
seats with a margin of less than 10% . I suspect in seats like Oatley , Kograrah & East
hills with inflated margins will be very difficult to retain. The rest including the
Ilawarra & the Hunter will be case by case propositions can be won by Labor, Independents Or libs depending on preference flows Or non flows . In this range I count
12 to 15 seats. The Greens could win two seats or nil…….. maybe one.
We’ll see … the size of the labor losses is unknown
Speaking of TISM after they broke up Damian Cowell (Humphrey B. Flaubert) formed a band called Root! who released a pretty decent album in ‘Surface Paradise’ but they broke up last year and now he and two other members from Root! have formed a new band called ‘The DC3′.
http://www.thedc3.com.au/
stanny
David Borger didn’t have it easy in his early life and is the exactly the sort of bloke Labor needs. Down to earth not up himself and will hopefully make a great contribution to the restructuring of the Party as someone who has a good set of values.
Right, I’m settled in for the weekend. Let the games begin.
Would bludgers consider it indulgent of me to offer a summary of my conmtributiuon thus far and a final seat-by-seat prediction for the outcome of tomorrow’s exigis? Or do you want the goss first? Who’s bookmarked their bookie?
evan14 @ 101
What’s defamatory about it?
http://www.2gb.com/index2.php?option=com_newsmanager&task=view&id=8462
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/keneally-backs-burton-in-drink-scandal-20100810-11xlg.html
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/call-for-axing-of-labor-mp-for-lies/story-fn59niix-1226027019619
eddie
Just let it rip however you like!
OK, well start with the dirt while I listen to Frankie V’s Youtube selections! But the first one was best.
I’m lovin’ the OT TISM tangent btw, there’s hope for politics yet.
Sir Humphrey, you (and anyone else born of woman) can email me directly at highwayphil@gmail.com
By way of credulity, this is the first election I haven’t worked on since 1977. I’d like to think I understand these things, so the next ten days will learn me some more I guess. One thing I do know is that this will require stamina. I’ve got a slab of barons, two bottles of vodka, a carton of cigarettes, three days firewood, a roast chicken and professional experience with sleep deprivation. I’ll be back quicker than a channel nine ad-break with an update.
eddie
i am off to pub
“eat drink and be merry- for tomorrow we may die”
will see if you are still around at 10
Eddie
Gossip and Predictions please!!
Eddie
Can you give your views on swing differentials between
Sydney Metro
Hunter
Illawarra
The bush and regions
As I reckon the swing will be biggest in Sydney and as we know us Sydneysiders are self obsessed
Eddie
What’s your late mail on the Independent challenge in the Blue Mountains.
From a December 2008 article from the Belfast Telegraph which I happen to have stumbled across in the course of my research:
I’m going to breach several confidences here, but suck it up.
Souris looks home in Upper Hunter, but Duddy will poll big. Ironically it will be blue collar votes that will save Gorgeous Geoirge. If you don’t know who George is, he’s the complete bastard responsible for privatising Green Slips, which was going to make them cheaper. Yeah. Watch for more Tooth Fairy policy like that coming at you from Monday.
The Nats are talking very cocky at Cooma Coles this afternoon. The old yelling “It’s in the bag” into the mobile phone while at the checkout. They will eat their own gallbladder if Whan gets up, which I suspect he will – but we won’t find out until early April.
Another seat that will go to next month is Cabramatta. No one will write about this but in a weird way Lalich’s ugly tactic may actually work in his favour. Bring it in tight people, this will need a big jump in logic for some to follow. By attacking Dai Le Lalich will appeal to non-asian voters in Cabramatta. Anyone who thinks Western Sydney isn’t racist hasn’t been there. It’s not a crystallnacht sort of racism (without, hopefully, invoking Goodwin’s Law), more of ‘the bastards can’t drive’ sort of racism. If Lalich cleaned toilets he would give toilet cleaners a bad name, but that doesn’t mean he won’t get a bounce from spitting at the indo-chinese vote in Cabra. He will attract more than one Usrtashi from that fugazi.
Central Coast is apparently a basket case for Labor with the baseball bats being kept polished and shined after they were stowed away in Robetrson and Dobell last August. Note to the focus ghrouop addicts out there, see, we might be stupid, but we aren’t that stupid. VCnet6ral Coast result can be put down to one word, Cityraiul.
Ditto Illawarra and far southwestern Sydney where O’Farrell’s cheaper tickets message is focussing the minds of thoise who, through no fault of their own except the life decisions they made, are paying half a million dollars for a brick veneer McMansion in what is obviously going to be a future slum when petrol hits $3 a litre. Remember the phrase ‘negative equity’; it will dominate politics in the latter half of this decade. This intel is the same for the Blue Mountains.
Mays is trailing in Blue Mountains. Not by much, but trailing.
This commuter belt shift could sweep McDonald in Macquarie Fields but not Borger in Granville. That said, in Mac Fields I’d rather be the good Doctor Macdonald or a joyriding gangbanger than the Liberal Candidate. All three will be busy this Friday night.
Tebbut is home in Marrickville. Just. But home.
The state election lead story for the Daily Tele has dropped to nine. This is understandable given that someone has found video footage of bigfoot. It could also be Gerard Martin making his’ getaway. The former member for Bathurst from tomorrow has a remarkable resemblance to the Bundy Bear.
The truth about the CDP was re-inforced yesterday when Fred couldn’t get two dozen people to his pep rally. Labor voters looking to be strategic in the upper house may want to consider holding their nose and giving Gordon Moyes (another decent man, except for his imaginary friend ideas) either a pre or post preference in the LC. In a fight to the death between Gordon Moyes and Eric Roozendaal you’d cheer for Gordon. If Moyes gets up he is going to dump a Warragamba full of Edensor Park cigars on Nile, who will be lucky to live out his term on a diet of chips. Then there will be no more researching porn sites for Fred.
More on the LC in tonight’s later wrap.
Tellingly PM focussed on Kristina’s hopeless plight tonight. I refer to the following quote from George Monbiot:
“f you want to turn this country into another Mexico, where the ruling elite wallows in unimaginable, state-facilitated wealth while the rest can go to hell, you don’t declare war on society, you don’t lambast single mothers or refuse to apologise for Bloody Sunday. You assuage, reassure, conciliate, emote. Then you shaft us.”
Australians are suckers. They always fall for the Sympathy factor. Theiy’re more emotional than drunken Greeks at a wedding. This will not be as bad as the spruiker out front of the tent is shilling it up to be. But for Labor folk, it will be bad. But with energy, demographic, service and health system shocks looming like a dumper at Terrigal Beach, has O’Farrell won anything other than a poison chalice? The chalice from the palace with the pellet with the poison, not the chalice from the house with the brew that is true.
Welcome, my friends, to the dying days of Liberal Democracy.
And now, to address some comments…
I’ve been talking late this afternoon from an insider in the seat of Newcastle. Jodi Mackay is within a whisker. This week the media up here ran stories about the Independent Mayor, John Tate, who has had a bad report from a Code of Conduct report. I move about within the Newcastle upper middle set (whatever that is) and they don’t like him. The Liberal, a former member of the army, has not run a good campaign and has relied on the anti-Labor factor. Watch this space….
jarama, John Tate’s greatest asset is that he is not Jodi Mackay. He could kill rabbits in cruel and unusual ways, like a speed addled forex trader, and he would still get up.
Love your posts eddie and your straight talking.
There’s much to do, but we’re heading in the right direction.
When we get into this sort of margin territory I’d take any poll with a St Marys’ speed dealer’s bag of salt. Mallarme would indicate that this sort of groupthink is masking something more deep seated. I’d also point to the polls that show a third or under of voters think O’Farrell deserves to win.
Thanks muchly for the Illawarra updates, especially the reasonable news on Shellharbour. For the neophyte hopefully Warilla booths will be enough. Their local footy team is called the Warilla Gorillas, and not for no reason. A cleanskin might save the ALP’s skin.
Unlike a lot of regional media the Mercury is read, but even more so, WIN is watched. Can some of our eyes and ears in the ‘gong feed us on how the Hay v Bradbery stoush is visioning locally, going forward?
Frankie V, spot on on both Cherie Burton (who was her boyfriend again?) and the Poseidon Adventure clip. Truth is a defence in defamation these days evan14
Re Hadley and Borger, does Taxi Driver (‘You talkin’ to me?) Ray pick and stick like Alan does? And boy does Alan stick! Just ask the CFMEU! Little known fact #24, Jones launched Jim Marr’s CFMEU sponsored book on the Cole Royal Commission ‘First The Verdict’ (I think the phrase you’re looking for is ‘rough trade’). Alex Bukarica, the nice serbo-craotian boy from Fairfield came up with the title, but perhaps he showed an independence of mind that alarmed the Construction Division, and was sidelined for what is an interesting document. Read it fer yerself. I invoke irony when I say it will be a shame that Andrew Ferguson may not follow his Father and Brother to Macquarie Street.
Della’s comments on Rees are what is known in tactical circles as a ‘pre-emptive strike’. There will be more, and not just in the ALP, after Saturday night. Rees was a former staffer for Milton Orkopoulos don’t forget. Best invest in a raincoat and some stout rubber boots if you are a member of the party of Billy Hughes, Joe Lyons and Mal Colston. And learn the difference between strategy and tactics.
shellbell at 30, Hanson will get up. On less than a full quota, but a big primary will get her up.
Thankyou kevrenor for a bit of perspective, as I pointed out <a href=http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2011/03/19/nsw-election-minus-7-days/all-comments/#comment-806478?here, our current political malaise is far from unusual, And look, it only took them 75 years to implement Stevens plan for the road, the carpark we call the M2, which will win the Libs Riverstone.
Re the Greens. Anyone who has read Animal Farm will remember the horse, Mollie. Now, lets just establish a perimeter and give the paramedics some room to work in.
Re jarama at 73, Tate will cruise in and the Morris Dynasty will rise from the dead like a good goth slasher flick. At dark, beneath the cooling towers of the Munmorah Power Station the earth breaks and a rotten hand, holding an ALP membership ticket, breaks through the sandy loam. Cut to a shot of Greg Combet awaking wide eyed in the dead of night. A distant siren wails from behind the Bunnings at Toronto…
Big Green vote in Cessnock as James Ryan is the sort of person (firefighter, fighter) who should be leading their LC ticket. Nats will win though.
Oakeshott, the Greens Candidate who looks like Mandrake the Magician will gesture hypnotically and win the seat.
stanny is spot on. If ICAC will run and run; however it may prove problematic for the people who actually run NSW, Treasury, and their property developer mates. Has anyone noticed how ALP candidate in Rockdale, Steve Kamper, has morphed from a property developer to an accountant? I thiunk that’s called devolution.
stanny at 115. There will be no uniform swing as such, but it will all flow against Labor (derr), but we will see variations from seat to seat. That said, the Hunter, the Illawarra and outer western Sydney will all go violently against Labor. Whan’s swing will be muted. The ALP already has a low base everywhere else.
I’ll talk some more later about the genius of Greame Richardson’s marginal seats strategy, which has lead us to where we are now.
If we got as blueprint of Graham Richardson’s brain we could probably build ourselves a functioning moron. The fact that this guy is taken seriously is a strong indicator of the fact that when entering the Finger Wharf at Woolloomooloo one must leave one’s brain ashore, which probably explains why the MHR for Sydney and one time Minister for the homeless, Tania Plibercek, and her overachieving husband, the Director General of Education in NSW, Michael Coutts-Trotter, live. I think everyone knows about Coutts-Trotter’s CV, so no need for us to go there, but rest assured that Barry will keep him on. He will be a useful whipping boy for the failures in underfunded public education and will also be a useful sacrificial goat when required, going forward.
If you want to get smart and all, an edumacation if you will, follow what socrates is posting. Whoever he or she is, they know what they’re talking about.
eddie:
Love your comments! I assume you’ll be around tomorrow night on PB?
Sir William at 117,
Andrew Fraser also came closest to doing what eighty percent of the population of NSW want to do back in 2005.
The WA Liberal party may be the party for you if you like seat sniffing, but for those fans of dry humping, the NSW ALP is for you.
And why won’t the general populace respect or engage in political institutions?
I will be watching this event unfold from Victoria with great interest, though the real fun and games start later on.
I was speaking with my NSW counterparts about the similarity in the policy vacuum between the Vic and NSW liberals. In Victoria we have been battling with the ‘mastery inactivity’ and generally underwhelming progress of this new current lot. FOB and co have had a lot longer to prepare for Govt in NSW but I would not be surprised if they follow the Vic path.
@eddieward
I think Machiavelli and the Four Seasons’s is the best. Also I will check out what condition the poster is in tomorrow and send you an email. It used to hang on the bedroom wall but the new Mrs found it objectionable being watched all the time by a black balaclava..The time I saw them live in sydney we were treated to naked TISM when at the end of the gig one decided the jumpsuits were too much and ran accross the stage and audience with just the helmet on.
I will most certainly be aroiund all night tomorrow night. I will also be posting live reports from mid-afternoon from my network of spivs, urgers, malcontents, home-brewers, single-taxers and actuaries. The odd political staffer may also bend the ear. We report. You decide.
It must be something in the air, Victoria has had it’s share of good performers, no bra strap pullers or seat sniffers but of the inappropriate text message senders to young party workers of the female persuasion.
I did have a bit of a joke with WA saying it must be the portfolio that attracts that sort of behavior (employment and IR ). Weather or not they are also members of the Brotherhood is another thing….
eddie:
Excellent, and glad to hear it. I have to work tomorrow but hope to be back in time for Red Kerry in the ABC chair for the count.
Kerry won’t need both hands for this one.
That is a very funny retort!!
A word of warning re the count tomorrow night. WHile many seats, and an O’Farrell majority, will be apparent fairly early on, seats that will take a while to resolve (that is, we probably won’t know the result) should include:
Balmain
Bankstown
Blue Mountains
Cabramatta
Charlestown
Coogee
Keira
Macquarie Fields
Monaro
Port Macquarie
Smithfield
Swansea
Upper Hunter, and
Wollongong
Nor do I think we’ll hear the now infamous ‘swing to the ABC’.
So if we go by Galaxy 66 – 34 and run that through Antony Greens election calculator it gives us 14 seats to Labor but Betfair is currently offering $1-50 for Labor to win under 20.5 seats. Money for jam.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nsw/2011/calculator/
hola eddie
just got back
now re the central coast
you may be proven wrong
my last tip
seasonally adjusted is ……………..
steve, when was the last time you saw a uniform swing in any election Federal, state or local? Seat pendulii are like Playstation (TM). Sort of interesting, but not particularly useful or profitable in any sense outside of themselves.
Watch the seats son. Watch the seats. They’re like children. They’re all different, and at times unpredictable.
The really depressing thing about this election is that the seats where there was good odds are the ones that will take longest to get a result. Spare your pity for the ALP and save it for the mug punter.
gus, have you been drinking?
Because if you haven’t, I suggest you start.
eddie
funnily enough
yup
wyong will go to harris
meahan will get over the line
both by pussy’s bow
eddie, things have come a long way in the polling world these days you can be sure that the figures in the top of this story will be right tomorrow. It is the only Galaxy poll to put faith in – the one before the election. Whater ever they do the rest of the time, this time they have caught Betfair napping.
Interesting polling from ReachTel in seats of Wollondilly, Camden and Lake Macquarie.
If accurate, the size of the swing against Labor in these seats on primary votes will be huge :-
Wollondilly – 21.2% (44.3)
Camden – 23.2% (44.8)
Lake Macquarie – 16.8% (40.6)
Well, time for a few tweaks to my longstanding predictions:
ALP 22.5% primary vote and 36.3% TPP giving 16 seats
ALP hold Cabramatta, Keira, Blacktown notwithstanding all the discussion
Whan gone as is Carmel and Verity and sadly Dr McDonald
…and finally:
BRING IT ON!!!
OI! Leave my Rabbitohs alone
Where’s Centre
He’s chatting with a bookie about the odds available with Labor getting 14 seats.
mod
hold the vass, you dont want a premature election bounce
If they put half the energy into manufacturing trains and establishing a financially realistic career path for nurses as they did on polling then the political class would not be in half the doo-doo they are now. The problem with politics in Australia in 2011 is not to distant from the difference between marketing and manufacturing. Unfortunately for the major parties you can’t offshore voters to southeast Asia. Hence the reason why Sam Dastyari will be selling time-share on the Gold Coast with any luck in five years time and be nothing more than a bad memory. But that’s just the optimist in me.
My call of the card will show why the ALP will hang on to 21 seats minimum and may reach the dizzy heights of 22 if the good lord’s willing and the creeks don’t rise.
Speaking of matters religious – to answer an earlier poster, the number of seats where the CDP (Fred Nile Group) will outpoll the ALP is zero.
vera:
Hope you are well. Was only thinking about you the other night when I took delivery of another rescue cow: a scottish highland calf who still needs to be bottle fed twice a day.
He’s gorgeous!
Ha
ye of little faith
Ive got my barbed wire paddle ready
I rescued a cow from the frypan this afternoon. Well, the rump bit anyway.
Hi Confessions
Good on you for saving my sisters!
You are my new best friend
I’m doing OK thanks
Sir Humphrey
The NSW ALP hasn’t had a policy since developing the internal “gravy train” policy
Yeah occassionally they dream up some policies, mainly just before election date. For examply NW railroad x3 election, and when they decided announcing the NE railroad for the 4th time might not be a good idea, they developed the Light rail policy
Then they sit around for 4 years on the “gravy tain” policy
So your scenario would actually still be an improvement
Sir Gus of the Whitehouse boldly predicted that the ALP would win 100 seats at the last Federal poll.
And we all know what happened there.
Well our Mayor will be on Fred Nile’s ticket for about the 4th election in a row.
Plus it looks like our table top undies dancer Labor MP will get done by an albino Liberal
vera:
Are you poised for tomorrow, and an O’Farrell govt?
Re Newcastle
There seem to be a fair few ill informed comments from those nor connected to the region in this blog.
Tates biggest asset is not that he is not Jodi McKay. It’s actually his weakness folks here are looking at him and saying if we blame the labor member for not getting enough done in 4 years what do we say about the mayor who has been loitering and ineffectual for 20?
Tate will likely run 4th maybe 3rd in a 4 way horse race. He had his best shot last time when things were far more in his favor – a lib running dead and an independent ex member splitting the left vote.
Word is that whilst the greens have not prefd McKay many local greens do not agree and will be promoting a 2 for labor tomorrow.
It’s close between lib and labor ( libs have run a good campaign here btw) greens are outside chance Tate is nowhere and will go on to lose the mayoralty at next council election.
We’ve also seen the emergence of a sinister astroturfing group in the form of fedup.org.au backed by the equally opaque Newcastle Alliance (sic business lobby front) in the last few weeks.
sounds like the Da Vinci code
eddie, I’ve examined them under the microscope, looked at them through binoculars and hell, even looked at the furthest ones through a telescope but can only come up with the fourteen Labor seats.
Campbelltown
Fairfield
Keira
Blacktown
Heffron
Woollongong
Mount Druitt
Bankstown
Shellharbour
Liverpool
Canterbury
Auburn
Cabramatta
Lakemba
Yeah fessions, I’m ready!
These lib Premiers are a boring old lot but, Big Ted and Big Bazza, lord help us
…what was the classic line from the other day? Something like:
“Any idiot can predict a Liberal victory on Sat but it takes a very special type of idiot to predict an ALP victory!”
is beedle about?
Gus
How you going old son?
jedi code much better
OK, as promised by 10pm, eddieward’s call of the board predictor for tomorrow night:
Albury (Lib retain)
Auburn (ALP retain)
Ballina (NAT retain)
Balmain (Lib gain)
Bankstown (ALP retain) But will look good for the Libs tomorrow night.
Barwon (Nat retain)
Bathurst (Nat gain)
Baulkham Hills (Lib retain)
Bega (Lib retain)
Blacktown (ALP retain)
Blue Mountains STILL TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Burrinjuck (Nat retain)
Cabramatta (ALP retain)
Camden (Lib gain)
Campbelltown (Lib gain)
Canterbury (ALP retain)
Castle Hill (Lib retain)
Cessnock (Nat gain)
Charlestown (Lib gain)
Clarence (Nat retain)
Coffs Harbour (Nat retain)
Coogee (ALP retain) On green preferences, Pearcey will have to grow his ponytail back.
Cronulla (Lib retain)
Davidson (Lib retain)
Drummoyne (Lib gain)
East Hills (Lib gain)
Dubbo (Nat gain)
Epping (Lib retain)
Fairfield (ALP retain)
Gosford (Lib gain)
Goulburn (Lib retain)
Granville (ALP retain)
Hawkesbury (Lib retain)
Heathcote (Lib gain)
Heffron (ALP retain) The Greens should come second here
Hornsby (Lib retain)
Keira (Lib gain)
Kiama (Lib gain)
Kogarah (Lib gain)
Ku-ring-gai (Lib retain)
Lake Macquarie (Ind retain)
Lakemba (ALP retain)
Lane Cove (Lib retain)
Lismore (Nat retain)
Liverpool (ALP retain)
Londonderry (Lib gain)
Macquarie Fields (ALP retain)
Maitland (Lib gain)
Manly (Lib retain)
Maroubra (ALP retain)
Marrickville (ALP retain)
Menai (Lib gain)
Miranda (Lib gain)
Monaro (ALP retain)
Mount Druitt (ALP retain)
Mulgoa (Lib gain)
Murray-Darling (Nat retain)
Murrumbidgee (Nat retain)
Myall Lakes (Nat retain)
Newcastle (Ind gain)
North Shore (Lib retain)
Northern Tablelands (Ind retain)
Oatley (Lib gain)
Orange (Nat retain)
Oxley (Nat retain)
Parramatta (Lib gain)
Penrith (Lib retain)
Pittwater (Lib retain)
Port Macquarie (Ind retain)
Port Stephens (Lib retain)
Riverstone (Lib gain)
Rockdale (ALP retain)
Ryde (Lib retain)
Shellharbour (ALP retain)
South Coast (Lib retain)
Smithfield (Lib gain) A sad day for democracy.
Strathfield (Teeth retain)
Swansea (ALP retain)
Sydney (Ind retain)
Tamworth (Nat gain)
Terrigal (Lib retain)
The Entrance (Lib gain)
Toongabbie (ALP retain)
Tweed (Nat retain)
Upper Hunter (Nat retain) just
Vaucluse (Lib retain)
Wakehurst (Lib retain)
Wagga Wagga (Lib retain)
Wallsend (ALP retain) but will be closer than two dogs rooting
Willoughby (Lib retain)
Wollondilly (Lib gain)
Wollongong (Ind gain)
Wyong (Lib gain)
Now, to the real action, the Lunching Council:
My predictions are
Libs: 10
ALP: 5
Greens: 2
Hatton: 1
Fred: 1
Shooterers: 1
Hanson: 1
Gordon Moyes (Family Fist) might get up, and that will be at the expense of either Fred (unlikely) or the Coalition (more likely).
based on polling showing a consistent 57.5 to labor
fool me to believe the polls
vera:
I know nothing about O’Farrell.
If he’s anything like Baillieu he’ll send the cops out to do toilet runs for transit guards and cough up one election backflip after another.
correct if you mean number of votes
incorrect if you mean number of seats
(IMO anyway!)
…consistently until Rudd followed Julia’s advice and dumped climate change action.
eddie
your breaking my heart again
mod
my prediction was for 2007
do keep up
No Gus,
You said 100 a mere 24 hours proor to the poll on the phone
Confessions
Are you in Victoria?
No fun at the polling booth for you tomorrow then
Mod Lib, Bogans love her. There are a lot of bogans. Get drunk at the Colyton Hotel and you will know what I mean.
100 seat prediction for 2007 better than 100 seat prediction for 2010….but still dumb!
Mod Lib (nice shoes btw!) that will be Arbib pushing the climate change inaction I’ll think you’ll find.
Julia hasn’t has an original idea since she walked out on the ALP Left Caucus at AUS in 1983. If you want to understand modern Australian politics, study the collapse of AUS in the early eighties.
At least we got real Kristina in this campaign. Be yourself is the worst advice you can give some people.
I reckon there is no better prediciton of behaviour than past behaviour. Yes she gets a lot of attention and the media salivate at her every stammered word, but she has NEVER been elected ANYWHERE in Australia (apart from 1996 when she had “Lib” next to her name on the ballot as her disendorsement was too close to polling day). She needs practically nothing to get in, and anyone else with her exposure would get it, but she wont.
Lets see whose right!
Newspoll Final NSW
2 Party Preferred: ALP 35.9 LNP 64.1
Primary Votes: ALP 23 LNP 50 GRN 12
Keneally: Approval 32 Disapproval 60
O’Farrell: Approval 48 Disapproval 39
Preferred Premier: Keneally 32 O’Farrell 48
Mod Lib, she can get up with about 100,000 votes statewide, that’s about 1100 votes per seat. No big ask.
GhostWhoVotes #Newspoll Final NSW 2 Party Preferred: ALP 35.9 LNP 64.1 #nswvotes #auspol 5 minutes ago via web
So the final Newspoll could see Labor winning 15 seats tops.
The Newspoll survey was of 1488 voters.
One in five people in NSW think neither leader is legitimate. That’s a good base to work from.
@confessions
The acheivments of Big Ted will be a model for NSW, no new legislation since November, promise pay rises for teachers, social service workers then go back on that and offer 2.5 per cent…still trying to think of any actual policy…
No doubt NSW will get the rest is the standard lib talking points…..review budet proposals/contracts (stop the waste)….financial situation is far worse than prev govt said…(stop the debt)…those damn public servants, all biased labor puppets…(stop the mates)
Eddie
i like your thinking
I stands by my predictions.
One seat we will know tomorrow night is Strathfield, where Virginia Judge is running foir the Teeth Party. If she gets up, Borger, McDonald, Robbo, Pearcey and Whan are all fine.
Mod Lib
Parkes might just pull it off for Pauline
http://www.parkeschampionpost.com.au/news/local/news/general/pauline-is-on-the-road-again/2114198.aspx
Tebbut people in Newtown report friendly disinterest (as opposed to vitriolic abuse) over the last week.
Where is the diary of the ABC Reporter with KK ?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/25/3174197.htm?section=justin
If Judge loses Strathfield we are talking cricket team. And the sort of cricket team I used to play for, where you’re madly smsing people from first slip to make up the numbers at a quarter past play.
eddie
aamoi
not one report of baseball bats here on the CC
pubpoll was about 50/50
the shy labor effect?
with a liberal dose of Colin Barnett State s Rights chest beating to boot.
eddie I’d love to see the result you predict but as a general rule polling is just so good these days that 14 or 15 does look to be it.
Re: Hanson. I pick her to get up. What people forget – and Pauline herself forgot when she ran for Blair in 1998 – was that her base was blue collar and low-income voters who are actually often LABOR voters. In 2003, the Labor government was popular. Now, they’re very unpopular, she’s got a lot more base to draw from.
Also, there’s nothing in her official platform anyone coudl really be THAT offended by, there’s not so much stigma about voting for her as people have kind of softened in the last few years (a few unfortunate utterances from her aside) and her biggest issue is that Hatton will pick up lots of her votes.
What percent do you need for a senate seat? I dont know but she only got 1.9% in 2003 well within her 15 minutes of fame. That time is up as far as I can see and I would be surprised if she got into the “single digit” this time around
(I certainly know which single digit I would give her)
Eddie,
Your gallows humour has been brilliant.
Tonight’s WIN News mercifully ignored Hay and Bradbery because KK was shown campaigning here and charming Gongians on the Free Shuttle Bus as well as copping a bollocking from local (anti-free bus) taxi drivers, which went just a whisker away from what’s now known as “Carbon Tax Rally” parlance.
The only local pollies WIN did put to air were Keira’s Park (ALP) v Dorahy (Lib) because savvy union leader, Arthur Rorris, Sec. of the So. Coast Labour Council, set a trap for Dorahy. SCLC conjured up a pledge of motherhood statements that the candidates were asked to sign—of course, Dorahy was the lone Keira hopeful who didn’t sign it. Don’t expect this will carry any weight at all with voters since your comment about irate rail commuters applies the strongest in Keira’s northern burbs. Btw, Keira’s departing MLA, David Campbell has continued to campaign as assiduously and visibly (at pre-poll centre) as if he were still on the ballot. It shows he’s still got some ticker.
I’ve already posted the relevant Mercury Editorial recommending a vote for Indie candidate Bradbery, which is the “climax” to the Editors’ year long love-affair with the Crown St. Mall Pastor, who (as William Bowe has written today) can have zilch impact when a government has a huge majority. For PBer’s who’ve never clapped eyes on The Mercury, think “Citizen Kane” to get a fair idea of how egregious their propaganda campaign was.
The Mercury’s secondary propaganda front throughout 2010-11 was that any time Kiama’s Matt Brown name was mentioned, it was followed by a paragraph about the alleged underpants party and couch-trip with Noreen Hay. Their cartoonist always depicted him in undies. Brown’s denials were so demeaning and his downfall so humiliating that I seriously hope the former Kiama High School Captain’s emotional stability is stronger than John Brogden’s was.
KK’s been avoiding ABC. Unavailable for News Radio this week. Mark Tobin (a bright lad) filed a good report on PM this evening that featured Kristina.
If I was Walt Secord I’d screw the ABC and concentrate on WS-FM and the Kyle Sandilands show, that’s where the votes are. 2GB and ABC listeners make up their own minds.
Is there a New South Welshman to compile the tips?
Labor 18 (just enough for Western Sydney to field an AFL team with no reserves)
Indie 6
Green 1
TPP 36-64
Eddie – so you are salivating at the prospect of O’Farrell ?
Do tell…
The other interesting spin is the glorification of one KK. She has lost votes for the ALP since taking the leadership, she has insulted the ALP members who left voluntarily saying that she pushed them out as deadwood, she will take the ALP to the worst election rout in history with the largest swing in history and she trails the lazy and impressively mediocre Barry on every personality trait (other than beating him on “arrogance”).
Yet she will be hailed as a Labor hero.
Long live spin eh?
steve, if polling is so good why can’t my local hospital get a GP?
edward o, spot on
Mod Lib, read edward o
Hanson can get elected on well less than a quota because of the exhaust factor, which few seem toi understand. As I posted a while back, votes in this election will exhaust like a public servant on a Friday afternoon. This means we will see people elected on well less than a quota in the Lunchiung Council, where it will come down to the last persons standing, and people elected in lower house seats on well less than 50 percent of the vote. Balmain will be a good example of this.
I love optional preferential voting, mainly because it shits party hacks to tears.
The Gong shuttle bus (the 55) is probably the best thing the ALP has ever given Wollongong! It’s pretty much packed constantly – try getting on at Wollongong Uni. I think Keira will hold.
vera:
No, not Vic. Just going off zoomster’s earlier comments about Ted’s election promise to put transit guards on every station (or something) has seen him have to organiuse Vic Police to do toilet stops for the guards – apparently not every Vic train station has toilets, you see.
I can envisage BOF facing similar dilemmas.
…thankfully Parkes electors don’t get a senate seat all their own!!!
I think most, if not all NSW Stations are manned – unlike Vixc and WA.
Very few voters have any idea what O’Farrell has *promised*
Polling wouldn’t be to get a GP it would be more to fill the wallet from punters on Betfair who think Labor will win more than 20.5 seats.
tanya just praised KK
we’re coming back
Frank:
I mean in terms of BOF having to renege on promises or find bizarre solutions in order to realise his promises.
morrison says 30 would be bad for labor
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Gus
could it be
the NARROWING
Maybe the Blank Cheque strategy is sinking in – or maybe the revolting people has affected the female vote ?
dave,
I, for one, welcome our new coalition overlords.
Seriously though…
No. No I don’t. I voted for Stuart Baanstra in the upper house because, let’s be honest here, no government has an answer for the energy, demographic and transport shocks that are about to rattle the teeth of your average mug.
Treasury run NSW anyway, and have done so since Renshaw’s day. They are like what the SECVV once was in Victoria or ther HEC in Tasmania. Problem is, we don’t vote for Treasury, only the sock puppets they run. Exhibit A: Electricity Privatisation, which is a long but simple story that has got bugger all to do with the energy sector, but which features Standard and Poors as the love interest.
I drive a truck, but even I can see this society is racing for the sewer, and hasn’t brought its toothbrush.
I give you the full Monbiot quote from before:
“Tony Blair came to power after assuring the City of his benign intentions. He then deregulated it and cut its taxes. Cameron didn’t have to assure it of anything: his party exists to turn its demands into public policy. Our ministers are not public servants. They work for the people who fund their parties, run the banks and own the newspapers, shielding them from their obligations to society, insulating them from democratic challenge.
“Our political system protects and enriches a fantastically wealthy elite, much of whose money is, as a result of their interesting tax and transfer arrangements, in effect stolen from poorer countries, and poorer citizens of their own countries. Ours is a semi-criminal money-laundering economy, legitimised by the pomp of the lord mayor’s show and multiple layers of defence in government. Politically irrelevant, economically invisible, the rest of us inhabit the margins of the system. Governments ensure that we are thrown enough scraps to keep us quiet, while the ultra-rich get on with the serious business of looting the global economy and crushing attempts to hold them to account.
“And this government? It has learned the lesson that Thatcher never grasped. If you want to turn this country into another Mexico, where the ruling elite wallows in unimaginable, state-facilitated wealth while the rest can go to hell, you don’t declare war on society, you don’t lambast single mothers or refuse to apologise for Bloody Sunday. You assuage, reassure, conciliate, emote. Then you shaft us.”
The problem is that when the people that work copped it in the neck with the supply side economic reforms of the eighties there was no one left to defend them as the left and the other usual suspects had gone off to discover their confused sexualities, hence people like Meredith Burgmann and Ian Macdonald being taken seriously. Either that or the erstwhile defenders of the working class were being fellated by Sir Peter Abeles or John Stone.
The working stiffs copped it in the neck, and corporate Australia (most visibly as Coles and Woolworths, but there are plenty of others we could put ion the dock) have been roaming across the battlefield, rolling bodies over and looking for anything shiny.
Liberal democracy is dead. My advice is to stock up on tinned food.
Actually, that is a joke Joyce.
Where’s socrates and Frankie V when you need them
thanks for the visual
morrisons comment was
tres interesting
steve at 201 shows how politics and public policy are now two completely separate entities.
Mind you, that’s only a small solace as you wait in casualty for orthopedic assistance
Well Eddie, Labor should have been throw out in carr’s last election, imo.
In the last two elections, the libs looked even worse than labor – so labor got back when it didn’t deserve it.
I just repeat – not many voters have any idea what BOF’s policies are. There is an excellent reason why, BOF probably has no idea either.
@frank
I forgot the states’ rights bandwagon – though we do have cattle in the high country now..
@dave
The absence of policies is a huge hassle, not particulary for the voters or the general public but fus humble functionaries.
I have a theory it was the public service that came up with the idea about the full ‘manifesto’ approach to campaigns with numerous policies on everything detailed and cost estimated. Sure the public does not care but it means we can get the blue and red books done and the wheels of government move smoothly…
Anyway, no policies means we, as the people who have to impliment policy have no guidlines/ideas/anything so it is left to us second guessing…further as the oppon has been out of office for so long they need to be educted in the ways of behaving like a government…
No doubt, unless they are very well organised there will be a protracted period where ministers offices are staffed by….well just the minister and maybe if he is lucky a rep from the Department…leading to even more inaction..
That does not mean nothing will happen, on the contrary it is Day Zero and we were always at war with eastasia, thus no previous Government policy or anything that smells of the prev Govt will be continued…even if it non controversal admin matters/procedure…so expect sudden movement, machinery of Govt changes, Department renaming and rebranding.
For our lot the 2 most notable actual achievements so far are
1) removal of ‘the place to be’ slogan on the Vic Govt logo (done in a couple of weeks)
2) dropping of the target 155 water usage slogan..
Atticus, thanks so much for that. Excellent intel.
Campbell is a good man, if a bit of a galoot as a Minster (and no, this has nothing to do with Ken). Your shifts Kiera from Lib Gain to TOO CLOSE TO CALL for mine. We won’t know this one tomorrow night.
But Dorahy was a brilliant candidate. I went to school and played footy with Greg Alexander (before he got poached by St Pats) and always thought he was a shoe-in for the Liberal party in Penrith if they ever got their act together.
By the way, has anyone seen Mark Ptolemy in this campaign in Western Sydney?
Alison McLaren (ALP Blue Mountains Councillor, put out a very interesting press release this afternoon.
It will get, like, less than no media, but it does show that people in the NSW ALP are positioning themselves for a post-federal intervention NSW Branch of the ALP.
Barnett’s first act here was to change the Govt logo.
Interstate analogies between Barry O and Big Ted are irrelevant
Big Ted is Melbourne Grammar educated and way part of the patrician establishment gets in to office by skin of teeth days after counting started and the state was well run and prosperous.
Barry O grandfather police constable, father army sergeant lived all over the place battler background gets in with huge majority having been well ahead in the polls for years. Only similarity is Liberal left faction.
NSW is by nature a Labor state have been in or 52 of last 70 years which is Crikey Poll Bludger paradise for most. The cities of Newcastle and Wollongong always vote Labor or ex Labor Independent and would have no idea what it would be like to a have a Lib representative therefore having had only Labor rulers both Newcastle and the Gong would have the best hospitals, roads, parks, Libraries, transport and amenities in NSW with all those many decades of Labor stalwarts rubbing their towns right? I lived in Belmont for a year back in 77 nice place to be sure but I have never been able to see what all these incredible Labor members do for these cities that is so great I would really like to know it must be amazing to have so many rusted ons.
The last great Labor premier was Wran and I remember 78 when he cleaned up like O Farrell is about to now even winning North Shore seats like Willoughby his government with the big majority performed superbly and forced the Libs to get rid of the dead wood in their party and rejuvenate just like Labor needs to now (Robertson is the problem not the solution).
OFarrell and his successor will get two terms and then you get it back again because it will always be a Labor state with Newcastle and Wollongong never going any other way. BTW those two cities will still not get anywhere special with their next ten twenty fifty years of Labor Mps in the future but that’s their problem
I still expect Labor 20 plus due to late sympathy vote.
Sir Humphrey – short version of your post – NSW public – bend over and touch your toes – you thought you were being screwed before. You just signed a blank cheque.
Frank Calabrese at 199,
Staffed train stations will be one of the first things to disappear under our new coalition overlords. Three ALP premiers (urged on by Treasury) tried to do this, but Nick Lewocki and John Robertson stood in their way.
The RTBU will end up like the gimp in Pulp Fiction under this government.
@confessions
From my experience, new and re elected governments will do everthing (within reason) to get sensible promises included. At the moment we have been instructed that any budget/policy proposal that is additional to election commitments is number 2 for consideration.
Anything that has been dropped so far – has been dropped for a pretty good reason and would have been implimented in an ideal world.
Anyway the budget will give a bit more flavour to this Govt.
PS to my 217. No way am I saying Labor do not deserve to be chucked.
Just the voters have no idea what is coming. They have not even asked nor been told.
Bend over from monday…
A bit of both I suspect.
@dave
I honestly dont know how it will turn out, thats is why we have had so much fun speculating with our NSW collegues. We had similiar fears here and thats is exactly what we thought the libs were going to try here but they are oh so careful not to act or appear like the old hack and slash Kennet govt they have been incapable of making decisions.
afore signing off from the nsw thread
Where are the fib cheerleaders
a very muted hubris
@eddieward
Staffed railway stations, thats luxury that is…..next thing you will say is you have guards on trains and a state run public transport system…
Sior Humphrey (Flaubert?)
You are very right and very wrong at the same time. Yes, governments come to power (as I suspect the coalition will Federally in 2013) by curling up in a ball and standing for nothing, which means that when they get in there is a bit of cosmetic surgery, but it’s the same old wife, but the fundamentals remain safely untampered. (Monbiot 2011)
The problem with this prognosis (which has a half life of your average Japanese Nuclear Plant employee) is that policy considerations DO impact on the voting public who remain incredibly ignorant of how key decisions that affect them are implemented.
The general sense of impotent rage that infects modern political discourse (Exhibit A, Carbon Tax Rally) is exactly because the policy concerns of the community are simply not addressed (see Monbiot, to lanbouir a point here).
Sooner or later som,e populoist smarty is going to come along and capture the screwed Gen X mortgagee vote. And they may not necessarily have your best interests at heart.
Atticus, agree that Rorris is a smart operator. I rate him, not the least of which because the smarties in Sussex Street (ALP, union and essential media) think he’s a loon.
If more people invested in community like Arthur Rorris does there’s be less angst in the general community regarding our political “representatives”. Let’s not forget that it was the South Coast Trades and Labour Council independent’s preferences that got the Greens over the line in Cunningham in 2002 or whenever it was. Back in Michael Organ time.
dave:
It’s going to be a rough ride. Made even worse if he coalition get a majority in the LC, either outright or with Fred Nile’s mob.
Frank:
WA is a minority Lib govt, and at least the Nats have shown some sense in keeping them honest (think stop and search laws). BOF will have a thumping majority by all accounts. Have some sympathy!
Apologies for the addon post but eddie has pretty much summed up what to expect..[Three ALP premiers ....(urged on by Treasury) ]
All policies, promises and commitments have to go though Treasury….and if NSW treasury does not like it it won’t happen. The power of Treasury is a real worry and in an ‘unexpected budget situation’ everyone listens to treasury, especially new Governments.
My post at 225 is by way of providing a more verbose thesis of dave’s most erudite assessment that we should ‘bend over from Monday’.
Get behind me Satan! And don’t spare the Vaseline!
Tanya was very sober and genuinely sad for the loss of her state colleagues tomorrow, Morrison his usual nasty self.
Sir Humphrey, You’ll be pleased to know that Treasury in NSW has been a franchise of Standard and Poors since Egan’s time.
While most sane people would gag on the idea of letting public policy (say, f’rinstance, selling off the state owned electricity generation output for 70% of its annual return value) be decided by a bunch of people who thought that mortgages given to crack addicts could be rated AAA, this is, as you astutely point out, standard procedure for the people that decide where we can live, how we can live and pay the salaries of the guys in blue shirts with guns who will come around knocking on the door if we step out of line.
Nothing to worry about there.
@Eddieward – What has Ptolemy allegedly done (or not done)?
eddieward @225
I like your assessment though, I guess I am taking it all a bit personally as there are policies and promisies out there, just nothing made in my portfolio area for NSW and Vic, so we have been a bit cynical, especially as there is about $40m worth or programs/commitments ending June 30…..I know my NSW department friends have been thinking the same thing
Tanya is sober. I hear Michael is these days too.
laz at 231, no idea.
Just wondering if Gibbo’s mates from the NUW were working for Robbo.
How’s Karen Paluzanno going these days?
eddie
@232
low
V low eddie
and a tad hypocritical if you are who I think you are
Eddieward: a fairly tasteless remark!
I’d guess Mr Cootes Trotter will be looking for a new job soon, when O’Farrell starts sacking Directors General of various departments(or the ones that aren’t to the liking of the Liberals).
The Newspoll tables:
http://ghostwhovotes.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/newspoll-110326-nsw.pdf
eddieward@230
Well you sound like NSW is well prepared for any vaseline activity. Down here we just hired consultants to do all the dirty work with toll roads and privatisations….the fact that some familiar faces inhabit ministers offices now is purely coincidental.
@eddie – i am sure all the unions have been out in force for robertson perhaps even the twu
For those despairing, remember when the ALP won Wakehurst?
Newspoll tables with sat predictions, 18 to labor but with cabramatta to the libs and 2 greens…never seen them do this before, but I guess they do “own newspoll”
Christ, I drive a truck for a living and I am having a hard time getting a mental picture of Tony Sheldon going into bat for Robbo.
Strange days indeed mama.
Mind you, I refer to the Alison McLaren press release I posted above.
Like REM said, I’m addressing the realpolotik.
They’re not here Gus, because the last place they would want to celebrate a Coalition victory would be with a bunch of non-fellow travellers.
We can all play “true believer” but it’s not exactly enthralling, is it? Libs tend to post at the Tally Room, where the conversation tends to be more dispassionate and about the mechanics and the numbers.
hughie
Free vass and a good rub down after?
Dont see anything in the McClaren press release other than a warning to incoming libs mps to remember western sydney or they will be out. What are you reading into eddie that is anything other than a bog standard release
@eddie at 242 but will back him in for the leadership? given the fall of the seats they might not have the luxury of splitting hairs
Greens, like John Kennedy’s Love Gone Wrong, need a miracle in Marrickville. Parker is the front runner in Balmain, but needs Firth’s preferences to get home.
hughie, I’m no true believer, but it’s it’s this dispassionate analysis typical of the Tallyroom (ironically run by the NSW Greens’ returning officer) that has infected public policy decision making for so long now that we are left with the poseurs representing us today while punlic services go to Haiti for a holiday. If that doesn’t matter to you, fine, but I live on less than 50K a year and need good sound social policy to make sure it’s worth getting up in the morning at v2am to drive my truck.
A lot of sociopaths are dispassionate.
I need something tomorrow night to lighten my gloom – I’m a fan of Nathan Rees, so him retaining Toongabbie would be terrific. If so, the Labor Party could turn to him again, after Robbo predictably blows up in 12 months time.
Unbelievable, even newspoll has done a call of the board, this is certainly an unprecedented election. Pretty arrogant for a polling company, even if they get the PV, TPP correct they can still look stupid with the individual predictions. I do see they dont have a rural metro split for votes though.
@Evan – Cant see Rees losing or returning to the leadership.
Dont know why you would want to be opposition leader so soon after the election in any event. Poisioned chalice.
Newspoll have surmised that there will be a swing of 20% to the Libs in Sydney, 11% outside Sydney and then just applied it to the pendulum. An overly simplistic approach. If they did the margins for Liberal seats they would probably come upwith Barry O’Farrell in Ku Ring Gai having a majority of more than 50%.
Just as North Shore seats don’t have much upside for the Libs, there are regional seats that don’t have much upside for the Libs and Nats – so best not take the Newspoll seat predictions as gospel. What is does suggest is that there may be general election swings tomorrow (as opposed to by election swings) unparalleled anywhere in the Westminster world.
Eddie,
Spot on about Rorris, alongside whom I’ve fought (and lost) a few battles. Rorris is fearless against the forces of darkness (and Bluescope Steel is no puny force).
It was indeed SCLC prefs that got Organ over the line. Alas, Organ is well-meaning academic, but a supercillious public speaker, and Sharon Bird romped home in the re-run despite Latham’s lead in her saddlebags.
Also spot on about Brandy Alexander—I worked in Penrith most of the period he led the Panthers. His brother’s death might have impacted upon his willingness to ever run for office.
gus and evan14, Michael COUTTS-trotter (do get the spelling right old chap), will be kept on indefinitely by O’Farrell unless he snatches it. He’s too useful for them as a whipping boy for the next youtube bullying sensation if this time it happens outside of the Catholic system. Or whatever shock horror Bruce Macdougall comes up with for the Tele. You want to understand what’s wrong with the ALP, have a chat to the bloke who’s looking at you next time you have a shave.
atticus
slight correction old bean
ben is “brandys’ bro”
brandy was the one crumpled in the car crash
A possible silver lining in the big dark cloud for Labor!
Latest Sportsbet odds on Monaro!
Steve Whan 1.60
National Party candidate 2.10
Hadn’t most people written off Monaro for Labor?
eddie
sorry dude
mick dont deserve such alow blow
he has more than paid for his sins of omission
Besides, O’Farrell went on the record as saying that Coutts=Trotter’s job was safe. That must be true then, mustn’t it?
And gus, if it’s hypocritical, who the f^ck am, I then?
I’m certainly not either an ex heroin user or the secretary general of the NSW Department of Education. I said we didn’t have to go to this CV, so let’s not, mkay?
eddieward @ 208
Trying to work out your rationale for calling Bankstown as a close contest.
The Lib candidate hardly looks like a winner . . .
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/state-election-2011/the-candidate-a-radical-cult-and-6m-squandered-on-the-college-that-never-was-20110226-1b98p.html
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/sydney-nsw/private-college-buys-school-land/story-e6freuzi-1111113944589
I’m a Liberal voter and I’d be voting Labor if I lived there.
eddie
poor form
mCT aint a smackie
as much as you wish it were true
laz,
My mail is people are predicting Federal intervention as soon as Bitar has cleaned out his desk and people are positioning themselves accordingly. Which is no bad thing.
*cough* Borger
laz, is that the chalice from the palace with the pellet with the poison?
SportsBet odds as at 11.15pm:-
Balmain
Parker – $1.48
Any other- $2.55
Firth – $8
Blue Mountains
Sage – $1.25
Any other – $4
Doyle – $11
Cessnock
Barr – $1.85
Davey – $1.87
Others – $12
Granville
issa – $1.70
Borger – $2.05
Other – $14
Keira
Dorahy – $1.70
Park – $2.00
Others $34
Kogarah
Hindi – $1.33
Burton $2.50
Other – $67
Macquarie Fields
Eskaros – $1.41
McDonald – $2.45
others – $101
Marrickville
Byrnes – $1.22
Tebbutt – $3.00
Others – $51
Monaro
Whan – $1.60
Barilaro – $2.10
Others – $81
Newcastle
Tate – $1.33
McKay – $3.50
Owen $4.50
Others – $71
Sutton – $101
Port Macquarie
Williams – $1.25
Besselling – $3.00
Others – $101
Strathfield
Casuscelli – $1.25
Judge – $3.15
Others – $101
Wollongong
Hay – $1.80
Bradberry – $1.85
Blcavs – $23
Cook $67
Other – 201
Gusface
MCT was a heroin addict and served time in one of her majesty’s prisons for dealing – went into rehab afterwards. He has been very open about it.
eddie
mCT did go thru a “phase”
the rehahsing of his history is the lowest form of debasement
next some wag will suggest tanya shot up too
I thought you were for the substance sic not the spin?
Atticus at5 252,
Ben was the better man. A big loss for an entire community.
Shit, I remember when Penrith was a community.
gusface at 254, no Ben copped it. I was at the funeral. Brandy is alive and working for Fox
bbs
the operative word word is WAS
(I think this revisiting of past transgressions demeans the quality of debate)
mCT as SEc Ed has caused some major organisational changes
to tar him from the past is the same as pointing out howard’s family were white slavers in PNG in anem if not fact
fact but irrelevant to present circumstances
Frankie V at 258,
Have you SEEN the independents in Bankstown??!? It’s like getting shot driving past a KFC, it’s only gonna happen either Roberts Road or in Bankstown.
One of my sources was at Lakemba mosque today. “An anglo circus” he described it as.
@Eddie- I also have heard Federal intervention. But what is it going to mean really? Clean out of Head Office? Clean out of Admin? And when it is restored to state control – resumption of normal business.
FMD
apols
i blame alzheimers or the sands of time
apols to greg
Gus,
Always a pleasure to be corrected by you, Compadre!
How about this from Wiki?
atticus
already have
Watching Geelong beat St Kilda by one point!
I hope there is an equally pleasant distraction tomorrow night. Nirvanna and Janis Ian music should be banned. So should watching DVDs of the following:
Deep Impact
Armageddon
Downfall
Preferably, play a good comedy (Dave?), emigrate to Queensland for four years, and hope Anna Bligh keeps going on recent form. Seriously, the result will be all over bar the shouting by 6.30pm, so plan to do something fun for the night.
gus, I said no one wanted to revisit this CV.
And you also said that you knew who I was. Which you don’t.
So lets draw a line under this shall we?
At least dovif can be written off as a partisan freak.
gos, you are, well…
special. But not as in school.
Eddieward – I heard a medium-league operator in the Vic ALP say around Sept last year they were being brought in to fix up NSW. I guess now they’ve lost they’ve got some time on their hands, right?
Who is calling for this intervention?
socrates!
Kerrist!
When I gave up on NSW in 1989 I moved to Melbourne and fell in love with tram conductors, a beautiful woman and the Fitzroy Football Club.
Now I have none of the three.
But it was learning about football from Phil Cleary that made me appreciate Australian tribalism, which is a lot healthier than Catherine Lumby would have you believe. Rusted on labor voters need a hobby. The AFL is as good as any.
I ahve had a look at bthe currently held ALP seats and have come up with the following predictions
I am tipping the ALP to hold 18 with four 50/50s i am tippping the Greens to win Marrickville.
Auburn ALP
Balmain Lib/Nat
Bankstown ALP
Bathurst Lib/Nat
Blacktown ALP
Blue Mountains Lib/Nat
Cabramatta 50/50 ALP ahead but have heard that this might be the one big chance the Libs have of claiming it
Camden Lib/Nat
Campbelltown 50/50 ALP
Canterbury ALP
Cessnock Lib/Nat
Charlestown ALP
Coogee Lib/Nat
Drummoyne Lib/Nat
East Hills Lib/Nat
Fairfield ALP
Gosford Lib/Nat
Granville 50/50 ALP ahead but i can see it falling
Heathcote Lib/Nat
Heffron ALP
Keira Lib/Nat
Kiama Lib/Nat
Kogarah Lib/Nat
Lakemba ALP
Liverpool ALP
Londonderry Lib/Nat
Macquarie Fields ALP
Maitland Lib/Nat
Maroubra ALP
Marrickville Greens
Menai Lib/Nat
Miranda Lib/Nat
Monaro ALP
Mount Druitt ALP
Mulgoa Lib/Nat
Newcastle IND
Oatley Lib/Nat
Parramatta Lib/Nat
Riverstone Lib/Nat
Rockdale Lib/Nat
Shellharbour ALP
Smithfield Lib/Nat
Strathfield 50/50 ALP ahead but i can see falling
Swansea ALP
The Entrance Lib/Nat
Toongabbie ALP
Wallsend ALP
Wollondilly Lib/Nat
Wollongong ALP
Wyong Lib/Nat
laz,
apparently Cameron’s crew, which means Albo won’t be far behind (self interest much?).
Also, as other posters have pointed out tonight, there’s a rank and file show getting on a roll, and the rankest and the filest of nhem are involved.
If I was a smart man, which many doubt, I’d watch what Rorris does, and he’s not even in the party from what I understand.
What will be entertaining will be watching the Ferg trying to get his job back at Liudcombe. I wonder if the Cuban band will help him out?
eddie
re the mCT slur
you raised it, not me
kaz,
re Fewderal intervenbtiuon in the NSW ALP. I think it will be more like Victoria in ’69 than NSW in ’74. I think it will be root and branch (existing exec and admin ctee barred from office for 18 months, etc) from the oil I am hearing.
But the problem is, they need the money, so they can’t copmpletely p[iss oiff the ETU, the SDA and the AWU.
Watch for the Blaxland boys heavy hand. Now there’s a thinker. He had a think a while ago.
Anyway, ask Peter Lewis, he’ll be advising the new mob either way.
That’s Blaxland as in the Blue Mountains suburb, not the Federal electorate
eddieward
Quality choices! If it is any comfort I still follow the Brisbane Lions myself, and I can still take comfort in the three premieships, adn teh fact that they cannot mess up their recruitign any worse than the past two ywars. We can always keep fond memories of the things we love.
BTW I have spent a fair bit of time planning tram and light rail systems over the years.
I think the thing to do tomorrow is take a lead from Monty Python’s “Always Look on the Bright Side of Life” and not get grumpy. Life is too short.
Night all; chin up those manning booths tomorrow.
Jesus, after 220 years you’d think NSW would have a few more explorers and governors to name things after…
edward o
right
sorates,
There is no tram from Brunswick Street to Brisbane.
You around here tomorrow night? I was going to post some quotes from budget estimates that should provide some light relief.
gus,
the bloke when you’re shaving. remember that.
Need a shaker in the right to do this.. Considering that the various secretaries of the SDA, AWU, ETU, TWU, etc are on admin do you think they will agree to be booted out and then continue to fund?
The right had a dalliance with a left leader. dont think they want to go back there? perhaps they do.
Given up waiting for any explanation of why the rusted ons keep voting for the same part election after election in the Hunter and the Gong I suppose it is like football fanatics supporting loser teams because it is the family tradition I guess that’s why Penrith is ,more dynamic than either of those cities it has less resources to start with but has plenty of go getters it changes sides to suit the times and in football, Leagues club etc went from cellar dwellers chocolate soldiers to giving it a go and premiership Mark Geyer would be a great pollie or a TiM Sheens.
Newcastle teams in any sport always go broke I guess it’s just the mentality.
If I were a Public School Teacher in NSW, I wo uld be VERY worried – in WA thanks to Colin Barnett we have these.
http://www.sstuwa.org.au/sstuwa/independent-public-schools
nielsen poll
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/state-election-2011/late-mail-labor-reads-it-and-weeps-20110325-1ca9p.html
Stanny – I think people don’t change their voting purly because when you live in a safe seat you are surrounded by people who think and talk in a particulary way and from an early age you hear steriotyped views of people from other places.
Whether that be toffs or posh or stuck up or bludgers or bogans and when you miss someone from other places you look for evidence to confirm the steriotype.
miss = meet
James J – There is something to be said for that poll for in other recent elections we have seen movemetn during the campaign but it would appear that NSW has been fixed. even in the 1992 election there was a bit of movement with the ALP grawling back a few points but this landslide has just remained.
OK Eddie, you’re not who I thought you were and I think you are making a false trail.
For the sake of the Claremont Meadows branch of the party, give this old Penrith boy a decent hint.
stanny, you got it.
It’s tribal. Like football.
People don’t understand how the policy decision process works. I’ll give you a f’risntance.
Prior to Gough Whitlam, south west Sydney was growing willy nilly and had no sewerage system. Everyone, even Frankie V, had septic tanks. Now, unless you’ve been in either Western Sydney on a foggy winters morning in the early seventies, the northern suburbs of Adelaide in the mid nineties (when they privatised their sewerage system) or you go to some really cool clubs where you get to put your head inside a complete strangers’ anus for two hours, you have no idea what that smelt like. Considering that 100,000 people (this is early seventies numbers) got up and had a shit first thing every morning I’ll leave that bit to your imagination.
Gough, who grew up in Canberra, realised this was no good, even before the ALP people told him because he had olfactory senses. So the Whitlam government paid, at big dosh, for the southwestern suburbs of Sydney to be connected to a sewerage system, which was owned and run by the NSW government.
As a result an entire generation of people in southwestern Sydney fell in love with Gough and the ALP.
When you’ve spent the first third of your life in a European village, the second third wading through an overflowing septic system it’s easy to fall in love with the person, and their party, who saved you from that stench for the third part of your life.
Hence why the ALP will still poll a strong base in southwest Sydney.
Now, does that make sense. And does anyone notice the link between, gee, good public policy and popular support.
And I wonder oif anyone did a cost benefit analysis on whether or not people in southwestern Sydney should wake up to the smell of shit every morning.
Oakeshott, I posted my email address earlier.
I’ve also had the joy of someone phoning me up today to tell me who I am!
But they were wrong.
I’ll predict:
LNP: 68
ALP: 17
GRN: 2
IND: 6
Augustus Caesar found Rome a city of stone and left it a city of marble
Gough found Western Sydney on the pan and left it connected to the mains.
Oakeshott, first and only hint. Macquarie Young Labor circa 1984
If “visiting past transgressions demeans the quality of debate (sic)”, someone explain Frank Lalich’s leaflet to me then.
You mean Nick Lalich?
Just saw Lateline. How boring.
Before my time – I was only active in the party there 90-95 – they were interesting times.
laz, hang on, have something for you
you have my attention
Wollongong and Keira electorates during the past 5 years have seen the following funded and constructed:
SeaCliff Bridge (connecting Thirroul/Austinmer to Helensburgh)
Northern Distributor extension (Corrimal to Bulli)
Bulli Pass flyover
Wollongong Harbour foreshore refurbishment (Joint State and Fed)
Free Shuttle Buses (Circling both directions from Uni to City)
Free multi-story carpark at Wollongong Station
Innovation campus (Joint State/ Fed/ plus hi-tech companies)
Under Construction: WIN Stadium Western Grandstand
But also,
Odious parking Meters (State-appointed City Council Administrators)
Cheap and nasty partial rebuild of Town Hall (Council Administrators again)
Proposed over-commercialisation of Harbour including removal of fishing fleet
laz,
The NSW Branch is broke. Apparently the Federal intervention is to be underwritten by the Feds, but whether or not they will take on the NSW liabilities is anyone’s guess. Stephen Jones didn’t ends up as the Federal Member for Throsby because of his good looks. I suspect a lot of this intervention will be underwritten by the AMWU, the CPSU and the LHMU, that is, the Left.
I think you know what that means.
For the NSW right, it’s over.
It will also see essential media replace Hawker Britton, and the AWU do what they did in 1955 – wake up and sm,ell the co=fdfee and get with the winning team. Howes is mates with emc, so that’s no biggie, and nleft-right hasn’t meant much at Unions NSW since Robbos day, so if the SDA, TWU and the ETU get shut out of any future deal no one outside them is going to cry into their soup.
The left unions already have the RTBU and the USU onside m,ainl;y because these unions are having their balls busyted. The CEPU (same) will fall in behind whoever’s winning. No one has ever accused Jim Metcher of being crazy brave. And then there’s Borger.
The role of Madam Defarge will be pl;ayed by Nathan Rees.
Sorry about typos but had to reel that off quick
So, laz, woulkd Uncle Derek line up with the winners on this deal, or would he play Che Guevara?
Eddie,
Don’t know if you saw my post that one of the likely ALP Cricket squad, Shellharbour’s Anna Watson, is an organiser for United Services Union.
And where are the AMWU, LHMU etc going to get the money to do this underwriting?
The fact is that intervention can only last for so long and then it comes to conference time and the right have the numbers there. Stephen Jones ended up at Throsby because the CPSU reaffiliated and it was part of the original deal dating back to when Jennie was put in that seat.
If anything the ETU would be the richest of all those unions mentioned.
Nice theory (but what do i know).
Well Dereck is no ally of the TWU…
Atticus,
yes. Yes I did. And I lit a smoke, exhajed, anbd smiled. ANd felt all warm inside.
And not just because I wasn’t outside Warilla Maccas on a Friday night.
laz, all of those unions have coin. That is the least of their problems. You may be too young to rem,mebre what a Federal intervention is like, butr basically the Federal executive elects the state conference delegates. These delegates, in turn, will elect the new adminb ctee, whose name will be changed btw, tyhat’s how these things work – it will probably be given an emc inspired name like ‘consultative committee’ or ‘community ficus committee’. And there will be a new set of rules. That is what Luke Foley will be doing while the rest of us are having an Easter Holiday.
Christ, that spelling is appalling. Must do better.
Luke Foley!
Now there’s a patriot who is going unrecognised.
As I mentioned in one of my earliest posts, Luke’s name may be familiar to some ecstacy jangled synapses out there. Luke was JJJ’s correspondent for the Australian cricket team’s tour of the Caribbean in 1995.
While joining the Lunching Council must be something of a comedown after lying on a floatie at square leg watching Steve Waugh peel off a double century at Barbados, Luke has personfully put himself forward in the earlier stages of this campaign to hurl mud when it was MEANT to stick. That was when he was “ALP campaign spokesperson”.
He’s obviously had his ears clipped since Dastryari developed a communications strategy around Kristina and Foley was subsequently been told to have a big cup of shut the f^ck up, but when Carmel gets over the line Luke Foley will be the one person smiling. Which is as it should be given he is part of Albo’s cult and no one would expect him top do anything less for Mrs Albanese.
Meanwhile, on Monday morning, the trains at Newtown will be too full to pick anyone up between 8.10am and 8.45am.
Well played that fellow.
Looks like all the usual suspects have given up, so, until tomorrow afternoon companero, remember LANG IS RIGHT!
It will be a dark day tomorrow for some but this should put a smile on the dial.
TISM-What Nationality Is Les Murray?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Xs1lUK4jas
And so the national executive (dominated by the national right) is supposed to intervene and give all this power to the left (albo left) for what reason? Because the left has backed the winning candidate in each of the recent national leadership ballots? Because of the organisational superiority of the left or because of some benovelent reason?
and if do they replace the right with the left – this is going to result in what changes?