tip off

Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition; Essential Research: 54-46

Relatively good news for Labor from Newspoll, which shows the Coalition’s eight point two-party lead cut to four. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 34 per cent and the Coalition down two to 44 per cent, while the Greens have shot up four points to 14 per cent. Two points of this gain seems to be a correction after an anomaly last time; it could be that the other two show there’s some sort of an audience for criticism of News Limited. Personal ratings are essentially unchanged: Gillard’s approval up one to 35 per cent, disapproval down one to 54 per cent, Abbott is down one to 37 per cent and up two to 53 per cent, and Gillard’s preferred prime minister lead is up from 42-38 to 44-37. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

Today’s Essential Research wasn’t as kind to Labor, though the different time frames should be noted: Newspoll was conducted from Friday to Sunday, whereas the survey period for the more recent half of the Essential result covered Wednesday to Sunday. The Coalition lead was up from 53-47 to 54-46, but since the primary votes were unchanged (Coalition 47 per cent, Labor 34 per cent, Greens 12 per cent), there is obviously not much in this. The poll also turned up another painful personal result for Gillard, who trails Kevin Rudd as preferred Labor leader by 32 per cent to 23 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull likewise leads Tony Abbott, but by a lesser margin of 25 per cent to 22 per cent. As usual, Rudd and Turnbull secured their leads off the back of supporters of the other party.

We also get results on which party represents the interests of various groups, which show Labor holding modest leads for various manifestions of Joe Public and the Liberals maintaining brand recognition as the party of business and the wealthy. The Liberals however hold an interesting 31 per cent to 19 per cent lead on “the next generation of Australians”, which I can only assume represents a belief they will leave them with less debt. Yet another question on support for the carbon tax finds a spike in its favour last week to have been aberration: support is down three to 38 per cent and opposition up four to 48 per cent, almost exactly where it was two polls ago. On the question of whether an early election should be held as a result of the carbon tax, opinion is perfectly evenly divided on 42 per cent, with “yes” up two and “no” down two since the question was last asked in March.

3386
  • 1
    The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 10:55 pm | Permalink

    I am opening the batting at none for none

  • 2
    Tobe
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    “…it could be that the other two shows there’s some sort of audience for criticism of News Limited.”

    I’d buy that :)

  • 3
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    Gus – did you get a response from Poss as to why he and Farnsworth tweeted about the PM as they did?

    Nup

    :(

  • 4
    stanny
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    As Finns says
    There is only one poll that counts and that is in November 2013
    No need to discuss polls on Poll Bludger then, just hot air

  • 5
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 10:58 pm | Permalink

    4

    stanny

    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    As Finns says
    There is only one poll that counts and that is in November 2013
    No need to discuss polls on Poll Bludger then, just hot air

    Suffer :-)

  • 6
    deblonay
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 10:59 pm | Permalink

    The Oz says Libs have big lead???
    ________________________
    48-52 big lead??
    Murdoch’s boys and girls never give up do they ?

  • 7
    Harry "Snapper" Organs
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 10:59 pm | Permalink

    Well, you don’t have to hang around, Stanny.

  • 8
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 10:59 pm | Permalink

    There is only one poll that counts and that is in November 2013
    No need to discuss polls on Poll Bludger then, just hot air

    Yet there you were but eight hours ago, gloating about the Essential Research result.

  • 9
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:00 pm | Permalink

    deblonay

    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 10:59 pm | Permalink

    The Oz says Libs have big lead???
    ________________________
    48-52 big lead??
    Murdoch’s boys and girls never give up do they ?

    Kaka polishing at it’s finest :-)

    They are still batting for their seminarian of choice.

  • 10
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:00 pm | Permalink

    William Bowe

    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 10:59 pm | Permalink

    There is only one poll that counts and that is in November 2013
    No need to discuss polls on Poll Bludger then, just hot air

    Yet there you were but eight hours ago, gloating about the Essential Research result.

    Ka- Ching :-)

  • 11
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:01 pm | Permalink

    william

    how in hell can we get righties on here if you bait em

    :evil:

  • 12
    The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:02 pm | Permalink

    Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    Tony Windsor will make some very interesting observation #auspol on lateline
    8 seconds ago

  • 13
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:02 pm | Permalink

    William,

    Nice to see our absentee landlord making an impact.

  • 14
    The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    Gus, i am always on the right side from you

  • 15
    david
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

    Too early to say but a good result as was predicted, and after the utter shambles of the Opposition during the polling period, if it hadn’t happened we would be in deep shite. That was the Oppositions worst week for months.

  • 16
    BH
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

    how in hell can we get righties on here if you bait em

    Gus – I think William is feeling cheeky tonight. Let him enjoy himself here cos Freo gave him grief.

    HSO – how is HimIndoors going?

  • 17
    The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

    Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    Shock Horror, Windsor wants $1.32 per ton carbon #auspol
    8 seconds ago

  • 18
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:07 pm | Permalink

    back to the 14%

    is the growing green vote an “insurance vote”??

  • 19
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:07 pm | Permalink

    15

    david

    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

    Too early to say but a good result as was predicted, and after the utter shambles of the Opposition during the polling period, if it hadn’t happened we would be in deep shite. That was the Oppositions worst week for months.

    You can predict by Thursday how the OO will “prepare” Newspoll by the publishing of stories which will influence polling. The lack of anti Govt stories and the infighting reports were the key.

  • 20
    rummel
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:07 pm | Permalink

    Its bad for gillard when the libs have the worst week since the last election and all the vote spill over to the greens.

  • 21
    vp
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:07 pm | Permalink

    $1.32?

  • 22
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:09 pm | Permalink

    bh

    I was being cheeky

    :(

  • 23
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:09 pm | Permalink

    Gusface

    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:07 pm | Permalink

    back to the 14%

    is the growing green vote an “insurance vote”??

    Most of that figure came from the Indis – could Windsor’s comments re Carbon Price be a factor ?

  • 24
    Mod Lib
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:10 pm | Permalink

    Gusface
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:07 pm | Permalink
    back to the 14%

    is the growing green vote an “insurance vote”??

    Betcha they don’t get 14 on the day, Gus. I reckon beating their 2010 result would be a good result actually.

  • 25
    david
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:10 pm | Permalink

    Frank Calabrese
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:07 pm | Permalink

    15

    david

    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

    Too early to say but a good result as was predicted, and after the utter shambles of the Opposition during the polling period, if it hadn’t happened we would be in deep shite. That was the Oppositions worst week for months.

    You can predict by Thursday how the OO will “prepare” Newspoll by the publishing of stories which will influence polling. The lack of anti Govt stories and the infighting reports were the key.

    Frank you called it mid last week well done.

  • 26
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:11 pm | Permalink

    good point

    i am getting the feeling that labor aint bleeding as such

    moe peeps are drifting to the greens as insurance

    evrytime tabbottiha has a brinfart more are spooked to the greens

    an interesting phenomena

  • 27
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:13 pm | Permalink

    david

    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:10 pm | Permalink

    Frank Calabrese
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:07 pm | Permalink

    15

    david

    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

    Too early to say but a good result as was predicted, and after the utter shambles of the Opposition during the polling period, if it hadn’t happened we would be in deep shite. That was the Oppositions worst week for months.

    You can predict by Thursday how the OO will “prepare” Newspoll by the publishing of stories which will influence polling. The lack of anti Govt stories and the infighting reports were the key.

    Frank you called it mid last week well done.

    I can read Newspoll and the OO like a book.

    Here we Brian Wilshire trying to polish the Newspoll turd against the SMH story.

  • 28
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:13 pm | Permalink

    Windsor fueling the fire that members of the coalition might vote for the carbon tax. MT may have had a few words with him.

  • 29
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:14 pm | Permalink

    on lateline that is

  • 30
    Harry "Snapper" Organs
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:14 pm | Permalink

    FWIW, I reckon Julia Guillard is probably the most effective politician just about forever in Australia. I’m not just being a Julia fan, but I’ve never seen anything like the dirt dished out to her and her standing her ground. She clearly is not going to back away from anything she has committed to in terms of legislative reform. She’s got the toughest gig imaginable in relation to getting legislation through the parliament, and she keeps doing it. What a woman. Can’t understand why Poss disses her, gotta say.

  • 31
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:14 pm | Permalink

    a brinfart is a very narrow brainfart btw

  • 32
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:15 pm | Permalink

    From the other thread:

    8350

    Frank Calabrese

    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:11 pm | Permalink

    8349

    strawman

    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

    Newspoll hasn’t changed since the election. This poll is statistically unchanged. The Greens up 4, lol. Shave two points off that and share one each between Labor and Liberal. The poll and more importantly the trend is unchanged.

    Professionals working for the Labor Party would be extremely worried, even if the “side line supporters” aren’t. I think the introduction of a carbon tax could see the Labor primary down to around 25%. The tax is a regressive tax, and it will hit Labor voters much more directly. Compensation can’t solve this situation and the Treasury would be telling Labor this. One day there’ll be a book on it. “The things you never ever do in politics”.

    Compensation unfortunately for Labor will only help those who would already vote for them. Lets call them the welfare types. The type that mostly live in stitched up Labor seats. It’s out in those marginals were this disaster for Labor is about to play out. Why would a party suppossed of the left bring in a flat, regressive, tax? I’m thinking mandatory drug testing wouldn’t hurt the policy meetings.

    I’m doubt in the next twenty years the Labor Party has a future in Australia as a major party. It certainly has little hope of winning the next election irrespective of the “rusted on learned views” here. Professional campaigners would take little to no interest of the comments on this site, however this site itself deals extremely well with polling. The premium poll site in Australia without doubt

    Boo Hoo.

    As Kevin Reynolds and the CFMEU once said:

    “We’re Coming Back.

    Peak Abbott has passed.

  • 33
    The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:15 pm | Permalink

    Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    Interesting how #lateline dont even mention the latest #newspoll #auspol
    7 seconds ago

  • 34
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:15 pm | Permalink

    hso

    i dont like some JG’s stances, but yeah she is one tough cookie

    A lesser person would have cracked yonks ago

  • 35
    BH
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:16 pm | Permalink

    I know, Gus. I could feel it from here.

    Again today SkyNews has been fairer than the ABC it seems. Sky led with the John Hewson/Dick Smith piece on every bulletin but the ABC news and Lateline seemed to lead with the PM being told to stop toadying to celebrities.

    Was that $1.32 per ton for real, Finns, or are you being a frisky dolphin.

  • 36
    confessions
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:16 pm | Permalink

    Wow, what movement. And this Newspoll came after only 2 weeks of coalition infighting and irrelevence!

  • 37
    imacca
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:17 pm | Permalink

    Nice to see an improvement in Newspoll. I think it really doesn’t say much for TA that he actually has a higher approval and lower disapproval than Julia G, but is still substantially behind on PPM.

    A change in the Lib leadership may mix things up for a while, but i reckon the biggest thing in the near future is going to be that productivity commission report on carbon price.

    If it shows that other countries are moving on an “effective” price on carbon then i’d think that the Libs will start into a leadership death spiral pretty fast. If it doesn’t they will take heart in the hope that Windsor will not support a price, or at least not a price at a level that the Greens will accept.

    In that case i’d bet that the OO will be leading the charge claiming that the Gillard govts days are numbered or we’ll all be roooooooned.

    Interesting time ahead.

  • 38
    victoria
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:19 pm | Permalink

    POLLYTICS | 2 minutes ago

    Interesting bit their from Windsor on floor crossings - some Libs have obviously telling him they really give a shit about a carbon price.

  • 39
    Gorgeous Dunny
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:21 pm | Permalink

    The flame wars have been fairly moderate tonight. But I thought I’d pass on some excellent words of wisdom from “Doc” Campbell to the graduates from Terrace in Brisbane:

    "Gentlemen of Terrace ... Grow up with a sense of justice and rightness and always have a just perspective. Remember, it is stupid to assume that our cause is always just and nobody else's is."

    Circa 1959, cited by Hugh Lunn in

    Over the top with Jim

    A great read.

    Mod Lib has to cop a bit in the absence of anyone else much from that side, but I’m sure he understands that many of us accept the above point.

  • 40
    Misfit
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:21 pm | Permalink

    37 victoria
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:19 pm | Permalink

    POLLYTICS | 2 minutes ago

    Interesting bit their from Windsor on floor crossings - some Libs have obviously telling him they really give a shit about a carbon price.

    An ABC exclusive?
    Let’s see how it runs on their news.

  • 41
    Harry "Snapper" Organs
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:21 pm | Permalink

    Hello BH, thanks for asking. He had a rotten period for a while, ghastly pain. Not so bad over the past week and cheered up by wedding of middle daughter, which was delightful. Good to see Vera and Puff are going O.K..

  • 42
    The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:21 pm | Permalink

    BH, he did (jokingly) said that it might just as well be $1.32.

  • 43
    Mod Lib
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:23 pm | Permalink

    Mod Lib has to cop a bit in the absence of anyone else much from that side, but I’m sure he understands that many of us accept the above point.

    …what makes you think i am a man by the way?

    Actually, this blog is far more civilised these days, not sure why, but I like it! :)

    Night all.

  • 44
    Gorgeous Dunny
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

    Great post @ 29, HSO. Fully agree with your opinion on JG.

  • 45
    arunta
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

    This is a good poll inspite of 52-48 because in retrospect while the Turnbull/Abbott infighting has been going on in the media, the murdoch/2gb coalition has still been 24/7 anti labor , so this result has got to be seen against that backdrop.
    Can only imagine what a little good news and honest reporting would do to the labor vote ….I think that this will gnaw away at tiny little coalition brains….keep messing with their diseased minds.
    Frank , luv your work ..don’t give mod lib any slack.

  • 46
    victoria
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

    Mod Lib

    Night :)

  • 47
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

    BTW, where’s Candles ? Laast time he was here with Bells on ??

    This wekk – zilch.

    Busy cleaning tables to avod complaints about poor services ?

  • 48
    Fulvio Sammut
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

    Hard to imagine a woman being so boorish, but maybe it’s just me.

  • 49
    victoria
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    Night all

  • 50
    mari
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    A small step in the right direction from Newspoll, may it continue, I can’t really understand Essential as Government leads on m ost of the points put yet drop a point further behind, mayby next week will be better on the 2 week rolling? Was interested in the comments above on Windsor and some members of Coalition could cross the floor on Carbon? Do you think that is possible?

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