Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Withdraw Bemused that is over the line!
by Glen on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:25 pm
The AWU are supporting the carbon tax.
Doesn’t sound like a big deal, but keep in mind that one of Abbott’s most effective avenues is to attack the ALP’s union base. It started to work when Howes started scrutinising the policy. That hole is now closed.
by spur212 on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:27 pm
Poroti, ahh yes … Village Idiot has a vital role to play in a modern democratic society, that is why Glen is so useful
by The Finnigans on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:28 pm
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
When Abbott was told that the Liberal review said he must “develop policies”, he was heard to ask “what is that? show me samples” #auspol
2 minutes ago
by The Finnigans on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:28 pm
I’m loving these latest poll results. A lot of the true believers here are talking about how it’s two years to an election so they don’t really matter – but the thing is, a political leader simply cannot survive such consistent low numbers. Certainly not for years on end.
Who is going to be next when the factional heavies decide that the “punters” have “stopped listening” and “mate, Julia can’t win”???
by Two Piece Feed on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:28 pm
Spur212 they had no choice other than supporting it.
by Glen on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:29 pm
spur, the PM and Labor will keep doing this now and into the future. This is why this policy is about a long marathon, and not a quick sprint. More and more organisations (and their) members will come on board, business is now “locking” itself into the policy framework and Abbott’s attack will look more and more like a waste of time.
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:29 pm
I see the competition for PB’s VI is hotting up
by The Finnigans on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:30 pm
Oscar,
For you:
by Space Kidette on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:31 pm
it’s a regular carnival of goodness Finns
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:32 pm
The OO
by Tom Hawkins on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:33 pm
Essential
Carbon Tax: Support 39% (+4), Oppose 49% (-4)
http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/07/18/essential-voters-convinced-carbon-pricing-will-hurt-them/
by spur212 on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:34 pm
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/carbon-plan/global-fears-wont-stall-carbon-tax-plan/story-fn99tjf2-1226096840377
by Tom Hawkins on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:34 pm
Yes, I did & I now give you an unqualified apology.
by charlton on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:34 pm
Yes, I did & I now give you an unqualified apology.
by charlton on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:34 pm
Glen
We live in another dimension
http://www.disclose.tv/action/viewvideo/5741/I_ll_Take_You_To_Another_Dimension___/
I see Simon Crean’s odds to lead at next election have “shortened” from 100/1 to 10/1
Has it gotten as bad as this?
by vera on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:35 pm
Howes on ABC presser on AWU position on the cp.
by Space Kidette on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:36 pm
What about Turnbull’s odds too?
by Glen on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:37 pm
I wonder what Abbott offered the Greens in his losing attempt to form a minority government.
by BK on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:37 pm
I’m also loving the outrage here at the fact the opposition is running a dishonest scare campaign against the carbon tax, aided by the media.
Where were you all in 1993 and 1998 when the exact same thing was happening in reverse and it was labor talking doomsday alarmist crap about the GST proposals of the liberals? Where was your concern for media ethics then when they jumped on the bandwagon and reported all of Labor’s lies about the GST?
What goes around comes around bludgers.
by Two Piece Feed on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:37 pm
I don’t want an apology, I want a hug
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:38 pm
I wonder if Gillard will get a feeling of Déjà vu when Swan and Shorten come to her strongly urging the dropping of the CT, with threat of internal ructions….and she does and lo it appears in the evening news before she can even blink. LoL
Labor have no choice now, the CT must go ahead. Stopping now will make little difference to Gillard/Labor position. The damage has been done and it was done before the CT issue become prominent.
Gillard’s awful polls started long before the CT issue became prominent. What I find interesting is the sudden deeper dive in Gillard’s standing is reflected in Labor’s primary. There is seems to be a direct correlation between her and Labor support, for at least a few percent.
This means that there is at least a few percent recently lost from Labor who will not come back whilst Gillard is there.
Labor’s problems are not the CT. A better leader and PM and the CT would not have been on the nose the way it is. It doesn’t help that leading up to the CT were other notable bumbling examples of the PM with regard to Timor etc and Live Cattle fumbling. The CT handling just reinforced an already negative view.
At the moment Gillard is down on the ground being thouroughly flogged by the public. One hopes they stop the punishment soon. What has been Labor’s lowerst primary poll figure?
by Thomas Paine on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:38 pm
george:
That was meant to be just one unqualified apology.
by charlton on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:38 pm
Voodoo economic USA style.
1. It’s current debt is $14.4T
2. It tries to raise the debt level to $21T and will last probably 3 years
3. Obama is proposing to cut $4T within 10 years
4. Like Greece, the top earners do not pay enough taxes
by The Finnigans on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:38 pm
Does that make it OK to lie and confuse, TPF?
by nappin on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:39 pm
Amigo Vera, how are you? Do you still love me?
by The Finnigans on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:39 pm
damnit, I thought I could save the second one as a “get out of jail card”
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:40 pm
Glen
)
Turnbull’s odd’s are $3.50 (that is to lead the Libs
by vera on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:40 pm
Amigo
I’ll always love you?
by vera on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:41 pm
yeah, where were you bludgers! I want locations, dates and bowl movements!
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:41 pm
Glen they used to view you as their tame lib and as such they expected you to join them in barracking for Julia and dissing Tony. When you disappointed them it set off something in their brains and they have gone quite feral.
by Two Piece Feed on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:42 pm
TLBD and others interested
You asked me to post pictures I have of the PM’s walk through last Wednesday.
I have finally worked out how to get them on my computer and have had the time to do that today.
If you would still like to see them, could you please tell what to do now?
thanks
.
by gayle on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:42 pm
by Space Kidette on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:43 pm
Someone else can do Two Bit…
by Kersebleptes on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:43 pm
Paul Howes playing a cracker on ABC24.
by BK on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:43 pm
A hug it is then.
by charlton on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:43 pm
Thanks BK – watching now
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:44 pm
Amigo, a song from the early King
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9uJg6UPJlfI
by The Finnigans on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:44 pm
That’s a disturbing image. Real classy. But hey, look at it this way. Rudd couldn’t get the CT done, no matter what view you have of how he was going to get it done if only those nasty downtrodden Cabinet members hadn’t stopped him. Gillard is getting it done, and in an environment I severely doubt Rudd would have been able to handle.
by rishane on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:44 pm
vera
The betting pool would be so small that someone putting the $2 coin they found in their pocket on has caused the “plunge”. Then again putting a few dollars on an unlikely event to boost speculation could be a sneaky bit of political play.
by poroti on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:45 pm
You could use flickr (www.flickr.com). Its free to join up to and lets you upload your images easily enough.
by rishane on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:45 pm
Howes is angry today
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:46 pm
Glen’s been coming here forever,he’s like a comfortable old slipper he still loves his unce Howie who I have always detested but I’d still adopt him (Glen that is, Hyacinth can have Howie)
by vera on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:46 pm
Essential 56/44 , goes the other way!
by Benji on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:47 pm
You do have a heart after all.
by charlton on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:47 pm
rishane
Thanks. George suggested that the other day, but I don’t want all the pictures because some are not very good.
by gayle on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:48 pm
Every steel mill that has shut in Australia has done so under a Coalition Government”.
Paul Howes.
GOLD.
by BK on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:48 pm
Vera I am with you!
by Mytwobobsworth on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:49 pm
How long before the backroom mongrels secretly invite Turnbull to replace Gillard as PM.
I reckon Turnbull would be happy to cross the floor and lead a Labor govt, even as Liberal Party member. lol
Funnily enough I think Labor’s position would increase markedly with Turnbull up front.
by Thomas Paine on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:49 pm
Primaries ALP 31 (+1), LNP 49 (-1)
by Benji on Jul 18, 2011 at 1:49 pm