Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Center, the bigger lie is the lie that says that Gillard in responding to a question about how her policy was to be different from the Greens, said there would be no carbon pricing scheme at all.
Its an easy misunderstanding I guess, but what Abbott done is an egregious lie. Preying on that misconception, having lots of ordinary otherwise sensible people believe the lie. Like that poor woman at the mall in Brisbane. She actually believe that there wasn’t going to be any kind of scheme. Thanks to that lying Abbott and his pals in the toxic media.
by cud chewer on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:25 pm
I’m shocked
by Dario on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:25 pm
Heard it all before evan. Totally not interested like most of the population.
by Gary on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:25 pm
Come on Glen – Howard never had a soul to begin with
by Think Big on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:25 pm
Ok, let’s make it a bit easier Glen. On economics, I listen to:
Ross Garnaut
Your turn….
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:25 pm
George I do listen to Nial Ferguson
by Glen on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:26 pm
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/jul/17/charlie-brooker-rupert-murdoch
good read this
by my say on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:26 pm
And then you toss that all out and suck up to Abbott.. Great work.
by cud chewer on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:26 pm
Howard took his 90+ seat government to an election, suffered a huge swing in both seats and popular vote (had that swing occured against Labor in 2010, Abbott would be PM) and lost the 2PP vote. He ran on many issues and buried the GST in his campaign. After just managing to hold on to power, he pushed ahead with the GST anyway and suffered a huge drop in opinion polling for it.
Did he have a mandate? You bet he did. He was the Prime Minister who had confidence of the majority of the House of Representatives and his GST had support of majority of both houses of parliament. Just like the Carbon Tax. To say anything else is partisan spin.
by To Speak of Pebbles on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:26 pm
Well, you’re the oracle mate. You obviously have a tremendous crystal ball there.
by Gary on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:26 pm
On scientific evidence I listen to
Anna-Maria Arabia
Your turn….
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:27 pm
just had a look on the guardian nothing new, from this morning
by my say on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:27 pm
As what, an economist, scientist?
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:27 pm
Strictly speaking Howard had a soul but it was bought long before he got into politics. Being totally soul-less is a distinction that belongs to Abbott.
by cud chewer on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:27 pm
Gary
hitler, had only one brass ball…..
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:27 pm
Okay
Ian Macfarlane
by Glen on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:28 pm
Nial for politics/history
by Glen on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:28 pm
Was it Himmler who had two but very small ….?
by Gary on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:29 pm
Listening to that press club address by Julia.
You here her voice breaking a little.. and guess what.. she’s actually saying “the world stood on the brink of economic disaster and it took a Labor government..”
Yep she was getting emotional.. and about something that really mattered.
God the media are toxic.
by cud chewer on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:29 pm
vic my say
the dude was from bbc5
one thing he said was the met commissioner lobbed a grenade at cameron over some apptmewnts
also he said watch this space
then news hacked the line and the call ended
JOKE
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:30 pm
Glen, I’m talking about experts, not opinion writers
oh dear, well that’s the end of that game, as per usual. Continue with your roundabout logic
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:31 pm
I think Goebbels had none.
by ruawake on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:31 pm
Cud Chewer that is by far the best refutation of “the lie” lie I have ever read. D’ya reckon you could post it every frigging time (as we all know they will, over and over again) they repeat the lie?
by Just Saying’ on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:32 pm
George…
He was the Reserve Bank Governor between 1996 and 2006.
I think he’s qualified don’t you?
by Glen on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:32 pm
Apart from the fact that these long line of awful polls for Gillard indicate a failing and incompetent leader the reason she cannot stay on as PM too long is that the bad polls themselves become the major issue. And that tends to become self sustaining aka NSW. The assumption then becomes that Gillard and Labor useless.
Thus Gillard will have to go at some stage if polls dont start an upward trend, and I don’t mean just one or two polls better than the current awful batch.
by Thomas Paine on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:32 pm
Glen
Without googling for an answer can you in 100 words or less explain chemotherapy?
Thought not.
Without googling for an answer can you in 100 words or less the dynamics involved in lifting a 747 off the ground (BTW wind under wings does not get you a pass mark)
and, without refueling, traveling from Melbourne to Singapore?
Thought not.
Why do you have this blind spot about the science concerning CC?
by Tom Hawkins on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:33 pm
gusface
I will be watching the space like a hawk. Rupies troubles are a game changer
by victoria on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:34 pm
Himmler has two but they were small
by BK on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:34 pm
opinion writers bah Nail Ferguson is a NOT!
]
Yeah he’s just someone with opinions!
He’s solid on Business and Economics and History….
Ian Macfarlane for purely economics.
by Glen on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:34 pm
Nice one, Tom
by BK on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:35 pm
Victoria, I think Gusface is right. That’s what happens when the norty side and saint side of good join forces
According to my UK sources, Rupe is in REAL big trouble!
I will believe in god and consider a couple of visits to church if he does time
by Centre on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:35 pm
and what have learnt from him about current policy? any recent comments published you would like to share with us?
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:35 pm
I never said I did!
by Glen on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:36 pm
Gary@1488
You may well say that, and probably would, but I agree with John Stirton:
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/its-the-deal-she-cant-seal-20110717-1hkaj.html#ixzz1SRKd34V9
On the second part – your question was why would the party change leader. The sahllow pragmatism of the current leadership cabal is relevant to that; even if the public mostly know nothing about it, we do.
by jaundiced view on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:36 pm
First of all his name is Naill, and secondly he’s specialty is as a HISTORIAN.
BZZZZZZ, try again
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:36 pm
But when talking about the Government steering Australia through the Global Economic Crisis, Gillard tries to pretend that Kevin Rudd wasn’t PM at the time.
by evan14 on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:36 pm
evan14@1481
The weathervane is back on duty I see.
by dave on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:36 pm
yep, you have
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:36 pm
I thought Himmler had something similar…
[Göring has only got one ball
Hitler's [are] so very small
Himmler’s so very similar
And Goebbels has no balls at all ]
by Tom Hawkins on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:36 pm
I’m trying. Hoping others pick up on it too. What really gripes me is that the Labor Party’s own advisors don’t seem to have twigged on this. Julia keeps answering the question as if its one about “why did you break the promise to not implement it in the form of a tax” when what she should be doing is compiling all the video of her promising a carbon price, handing it to journos and then any time she gets asked in public, go back to the original context and make it clear that Abbott is lying by an act of conflation.
by cud chewer on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:37 pm
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:37 pm
Frank,
How can Howard sell what he never had? Easy, he sold Australia’s soul instead.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:38 pm
Ferguson is a historian, not an economist. When he focuses on economics, he writes nonsense:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/05/02/liquidity-preference-loanable-funds-and-niall-ferguson-wonkish/
by ShowsOn on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:38 pm
BK.
Its.
Hitler.. has only got one ball.
Goering.. has two but ve-ry small.
Himler.. had something simler.
But poor old Goebels has no ball at all.
Sorry William, you can bin that if its too rude
by cud chewer on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:38 pm
= Mining Tax is bad.
by Glen on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:38 pm
What gibberish.
The original ETS was to have a five-year fixed-price period.
by Kersebleptes on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:39 pm
What a boring day this has been on PB.
I come here for intelligent discussion but I don’t think I’ve had my reward today.
Left for a couple of hours and when I come back Glen has taken over again.
by lizzie on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:39 pm
Oh yes you have
How about a spot of honesty Glen? I don’t give a rat’s arse if you are a Liberal hack or a denier but please don’t bullshit
Have you read the report?
How do you have time to post inane crap all day long but can’t spend even one hour to read the report?
That’s because you refuse to be exposed to the science.
by Tom Hawkins on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:40 pm
I guess that Labor can’t get much lower than 26% primary vote, so that’s one glimmer of hope for Julia.
by evan14 on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:40 pm
Twiggy’s Halo is slipping:
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/9868053/forrest-accused-of-being-corporate-bully/
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:40 pm