Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Tom and Cud
You are correct. I realised my mistake and headed off to find the correct words.
by BK on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:40 pm
hitler had only one brass ball
the other was in the albert hall
……..
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:41 pm
I don’t believe for one moment that a change of leader will mean people will support a CT.
by Gary on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:41 pm
Glen should have his own blog…….I’d join up!
by evan14 on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:41 pm
Frank, thanks for the Press Club address link – great speech and great answers by the PM at the end (still listening to those)
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:41 pm
Boerwar, I’m just catching up. Thanks for a job well done which must have taken quite a bit of time and effort.
My favourite is the moored catamaran. Wouldn’t he have felt good? Was he wearing the captains hat? I must admit though if ever there was one , what if he was riding a rocking horse in his cowboy outfit?
Could I humbly suggest you send your whole file to any contacts that other PBers have in MSM.
by RNM1953 on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:42 pm
I believe in AGW.
I do not believe we are the only cause of it.
I am not a denialist but doesnt mean I’m going to be an alarmist like yourself.
by Glen on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:42 pm
Gillard will be there at the next election IMHO.
by Gary on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:42 pm
“I listen to reason, facts, and evidence. I listen to those with credentials and scientists and academia.”
Like Nostradamus, various wild-eyed, itchy hermits, a clutch of born-agains, the local soothsayer and real-estate agent, and a wireless jock. Jeez, youse is edumakated.
by Tony Jenner on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:42 pm
WTF? That was NOT a coherent argument against the mining tax.
by ShowsOn on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:42 pm
Niall Ferguson, like Paul Krugman is an ideologue.
The most balanced person on economics I’ve heard in the last year is Raghuram Rajan who wrote Fault Lines (FYI Glen, Turnbull’s a big fan).
by spur212 on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:42 pm
Glen you’re classic..
-Douglas Adams
by cud chewer on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:43 pm
Happy clapper.
She tried the Hawker Britton job and making herself cry with her speech and it did her no favours…
by Glen on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:43 pm
Liberal Senator Judith Adams on Capital Hill.
Bit of a drongo in my opinion.
by BK on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:43 pm
So the real question is: When will the factional hacks in the ALP stab Julia Gillard in the back and make Abbott their leader?
by To Speak of Pebbles on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:43 pm
Tis ok – I knew Labor would eventually upload it – once they got the recording etc – speaking of which that final hour of Sunday’s overnight with Rod Quinn and Barrie Cassidy never got posted – hopefully they will post it as a stand alone podcast.
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:43 pm
Oh could you, please?!
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:44 pm
HOLY CRAP! These two statements are incoherent.
AGW means ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING
by ShowsOn on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:44 pm
Let me know – I’ll keep checking too
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:44 pm
As sopon as she mentioned signing the petition etc – I chasnged the channel.
She is a classic seat warmer for the Fibs.
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:45 pm
And yet you didn’t watch – more comments without actually reading/watching/listening to the source. I called it Glen boy, itellectually bereft
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:45 pm
Hi Bludgers,
Does anyone remember a story that was done on a solar energy (panels I think) business that was developed at an Australian Uni (I think it was Sydney uni) that went to China because they couldnt get the support here? Does anyone remember this and can they remember the name of the company?
by Space Kidette on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:46 pm
Frank
Any more of a lightweight and she’s have floated off the set.
by BK on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:46 pm
ShowsOn, this is what he’s been saying from the beginning – it boggles the mind
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:46 pm
I don’t imagine it is possible. In fact I would think this would be the lowest number Labor will get. Hard to imagine a lesser percentage of rusted ons than this. Though obviously some former rusted ons have already fled.
Though when things are going this badly you must avoid doing and saying things that confirm and reinforce the negative sentiment. Gillard cannot afford another stuff up or two over the next few weeks as that would be negative reinforcement and shake off even more rusted ons.
by Thomas Paine on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:47 pm
Here is one of the Carbon Price Ads.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AdAFIErxhug&feature=feedu
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:47 pm
Who said this?
by BK on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:47 pm
hahahahahah George learn to spell first before you criticise someone for being intellectually bereft fool.
by Glen on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:47 pm
My Say
I do not believe in any particular poll – each must be read assuming there is a 2% margin. In other words if the opinion poll says Labor is 44% then it may be really between 42% – 46% (hey I know this is not a statistically correct explanation but it works in practice).
I thunk an average of the polls is probably the way to go. The Neilsen is too low for labor and essential closer, but it may miss older not net based voters.
However whatever way you read them at the moment the polls are bad for Labor. They must be turned around. The issue is how to do this.
by daretotread on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:48 pm
SK,
There are numerous examples of that happening. It is because we have a nation of Glens.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:48 pm
As someone said amen to that.
by Gary on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:50 pm
yep, spelling mistakes are certainly a sign of stupid people. Keep spelling “I have no clue” correct, cause that’s about the extent of your knowledge
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:50 pm
Glen is an idiot. If proof was required it has come straight from his keyboard.
by Tom Hawkins on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:50 pm
Yes, but not as leader.
If she is there as leader the Liberal Party should target 100 seats.
So, who thinks my musings about a Combet / Shorten ticket followed by an upswing in poll numbers followed by a change in Liberal leadership are closer to the mark now?
by Mod Lib on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:50 pm
George,
Never mind, you missed a letter. Glen missed a whole topic.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:50 pm
Well im back from a great weekend fishing without any access to news let alone a phone.
Now last week Team Labor on PB were preaching things would turn around on the carbon tax and Jules when (add gillard fantasy here).
So what has happend? exactly what i said would, people would realise the whole show is a shit sandwich being forced down the mouth of australians. So now the question is, now we have reach NSW Labor quality, how long will Team Labor keep a failed and politicly dead PM hanging from the gallows before someone mercifully cuts her down?, or this is going to be a very painful two years for Labor supporters.
Im starting to feel sorry for her.
by rummel on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:51 pm
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:51 pm
Glen @ 1556
by ShowsOn on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:51 pm
Stephen Long gave Abbott and the compliant media a big serve on PM tonight. Just lucky I switched the radio on and heard it.
Long is disgusted with the lies Abbott tells about the coal.steel industries closing down. Referred to other misinformation and said that the media does not challenge him on anything.
I wonder whether the ABC people listening will do anything about it after Long’s really strong piece.
by BH on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:51 pm
As the member for Lalor, but not as PM!
Perhaps the new leader will compensate her with the Climate Change portfolio?
by evan14 on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:51 pm
hubris
Labor experienced this condition in 2009
by Tom Hawkins on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:51 pm
Gillard’s “goose” is cooked.
by Peter Young on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:52 pm
There we go! The forbidden number has been uttered! 2009 redux?
by To Speak of Pebbles on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:52 pm
Emphatically agree.
All polls do at this stage of the political cycle is to sap confidence in some and create leadership speculation in others. But, this Government is the most disciplined I’ve witnessed in a generation & there are no signs of the notorious tap on the shoulder, nor should there be – the PM doing a marvelous job under extremely trying circumstances.
Abbott can say he’ll repeal the tax if elected but the ensuing economic chaos would be tantamount to repealing the GST. And, I’m sure the Government will make it nigh on impossible for him to repeal it in any event – the resulting compensation being prohibitive & this will be hammered home in the election campaign.
Furthermore, I’m sure that once in receipt of the compensation package for over a year, people won’t be lining up to hand it back.
Nearly all Abbott’s eggs are in the carbon tax basket. He thinks his opposition to it will provide the knock-out blow; whereas, the Government is prepared to go the full 12 rounds.
by charlton on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:52 pm
Lenore Taylor has pointed out over the last month that Abbott is a fraud, liar, moron, idiot, wanker who knows even less about economics than Niall Ferguson.
by ShowsOn on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:53 pm
To be fair to Glen he probably has no idea what ANTHROPOGENIC means.
by ruawake on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:54 pm
Glen missed the opportunity to show us what a moderate, well informed, rational Liberal might look like (if that’s not logically impossible).
by cud chewer on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:55 pm
So Glen’s Grammer and spelling nazi now ?
by zoidlord on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:55 pm
Here is the Lib game plan. Two words that voters don’t like: ‘lie’ and ‘tax’. Repeat them as often as possible regardless of the reality. That is all Glen is doing. And when you respond you are doing it to – doesn’t matter that you are rebutting his argument. The more it is repeated and argued the more it SEEMS like this is the important bit of the debate.
The latest one: is why bring in something if it wont change the climate? The ‘we are too insignificant to make a difference’ argument so why bother. My bet is that the focus groups show that this is a way to get people to go against the pricing of carbon despite their concerns about climate. So we repeat this statement endlessly. Doesn’t matter about the “facts, evidence or reasons”. As far as I can see that is the point of all this pointless repeating cycling of stale arguments.
Ditto with the Julia ‘knifed’ Rudd scenario.
If this site just becomes the vehicle for endless repetition of Lib talking points it loses its value for me. I come here mainly for news that I can’t find on the MSM or interesting analysis of events from some very smart posters across a range of experience.
My view: Julia is the best person to lead Labor now as she has obviously got the support of caucus (despite some fairly weak efforts to pretend she doesn’t) and the simple fact that no matter who was leader they would face an absolutely toxic hostile assault from vested interested and the MSM.
On that last point the much more compelling news story of the day is the collapse of News Corps.
by Gweneth on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:56 pm
ess. send their polls to 10 is this what you are discussing
by my say on Jul 18, 2011 at 5:56 pm