Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
rummel,
Not really,
Libs and their supporters have always been lying scumbags imho.
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:32 pm
No I said I believe in AGW but that with climate change as a whole humans arent the only cause as the climate has changed in the past without human activity.
by Glen on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:33 pm
Glen,
If the Fiberals have any sense, and if you had any claim to being “moderate” then they perhaps should argue that they’ll take the carbon pricing package and offer to “improve” it.. (albeit I can’t imagine that these guys would do anything other than populist rubbish).
Problem is, Abbott has painted himself into a corner. If he did like the nz tories and simply adopt the carbon pricing scheme and offered to “fix” it, he’d own the climate science and he’d lose a large cadre of voters who are in denial about the science.
Abbotts sitting on a large mound of fluffy votes that are in large part there because of the efforts of climate deniers messing with weak minds in voterland. If Abbott were to drop his “ditch it and dump it” rehtoric, he’d piss off those voters.
You’re right in supporting Turnbull.. well.. assuming you weren’t lying about that?
by cud chewer on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:33 pm
So ML you’ve found someone to agree with you? Big deal.
by Gary on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:33 pm
poroti
Abbott is only following the “no carbon tax in the government i lead” leader. Any way, I cant stand Gillard and dont give too hoots what Abbott does as long as Gillard gets knifed by Labor or the voters at the election.
by rummel on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:33 pm
This has pretty much always been the case for Labor Leaders/PMs. Nothing special for Gillard in this. Her problem is also than when she talks over the media direct to the public they pretty much are not interested in her either.
by Thomas Paine on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:34 pm
There goes your credibility Glen.
Yes, the climate has changed in the past, but on scales of thousands of years, not tens of years. What we’re looking at now is almost entirely human caused. The fact you still want it a bit each way betrays your real thinking.
by cud chewer on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:34 pm
What a piece of work you are.
by Gary on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:35 pm
This is the only news reference a quick search I could turn up about Crean, from three weeks ago:
“Ex-Labor chief Simon Crean may take reins from Gillard” – Mark Kenny & Steve Lewis
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/ex-labor-chief-simon-crean-may-take-reins-from-gillard/story-e6frea8c-1226083782827
It supposedly came from ‘MP’s’ and even a ‘senior MP’.
The article also reports this though, which I reckon is most likely the current situation even after the latest polls since the article:
“The mood among backbench Labor MPs also remains resolute despite the polls, with MPs using terms like “hard slog” and “no alternative”.”
by jaundiced view on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:35 pm
or lack thereof
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:35 pm
From the Our Man in Canberra Webpage:
I wonder if this “Comedy” is also in breach of said act ?
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:36 pm
rummel,
Is your name Declan?
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:36 pm
She’s there because she’s delivered. On forming a minority government, and on getting a carbon pricing scheme started.
You have to get the panic going in the caucus ranks before there’s any chance of a change, Evan. And no doubt there’s some that, like you, are very nervous about what the polls are saying… but most of them know that they’ll lose even more credibility with a coup.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:36 pm
Well that about sums it up.
Bugger policies, improving the country, making life better for people. nah forget that. I don’t like her so nick off woman.
by ruawake on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:38 pm
Excellent attitude.
by Gary on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:38 pm
My thinking exactly
Plus TP she has a way of talking down to people and belittling them which I find quite off putting.
by Glen on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:38 pm
GD,
Don’t forget the NBN which is also going to be ripped up by “No Carbon” Tony
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:38 pm
Based on the current polling about 7 million voters agree with me actually…
by Mod Lib on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:39 pm
Frank:
So the ABC can’t make a drama out of anything political until five years have passed?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:40 pm
You cant beat that…
by Glen on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:40 pm
Evan,
See, you are totally in harmony with the Libs on this blog.
It’s like a Tai Chi Ballet performance.
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:40 pm
Well under the old act they couldn’t.
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:41 pm
Whether it is or not, the bigger question is whether it’ll be funny. Double Take connections are never a good sign.
by rishane on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:41 pm
rummel
I ask again. So you are cool with politicians being so utterly cynical as Abbott was today treating the Australian electorate with such contempt ? Same day mate 55 crazy 5% good! With the added unalloyed hypocricy that he does while leading the “PM is a liar” charge. All this from a man who on national television confessed to the reality that unless he puts it down in writing anything he says ain’t necessarily so.
by poroti on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:41 pm
That’s what I said, Labor have their hands tied. But then on the other hand, it is politics, and Labor dumped a popular leader to get temselves in this possition. Who knows.
by fredn on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:41 pm
Er yep you can. Being in Government, something the Libs will be wondering about for a few more years.
by ruawake on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:42 pm
A comedy show about Gillard and Tim LOL!
Should be GOLD!
by Glen on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:42 pm
Show me the poll that had the question dealing with this.
by Gary on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:42 pm
Mod Lib,
Where’s this election you keep looking for.
Two years away.
Just singing “Somewhere Over The Rainbow won’t get you back to Canberra.
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:42 pm
“Libs and their supporters have always been lying scumbags …”
… and bullies with women.
by Tony Jenner on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:43 pm
Is 7 news running the unsubstantiated food industry line tonight?
by roaldan1000 on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:43 pm
OK, no-one likes the Combet / Shorten ticket option, so what about this one:
1. The ALP dump Gillard and re-implace Rudd
2. ALP powerbrokers apologise publically for what they did
3. Rudd argues (perhaps correctly) that it was never him that walked away from the carbon package, and it was Gillard (who admits same) and Rudd has never wavered.
4. Combet becomes treasurer to replace the lacklustre Swan.
5. They take the proposal to an election and fight like rabid dogs between now and polling day.
Crazy, I know, but this may actually work.
Better than sleepwalking into disaster and there is clearly no way out of the “yes but you told Rudd to dump it” and “yes but you said you wouldnt do this” memes…
by Mod Lib on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:43 pm
Just like The Hollow Men being losely based on Unca Howie
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:44 pm
ML, I really hope those polls change. There won’t be enough room on your face for the egg you’ll wear.
by Gary on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:45 pm
If Labor ditches Gillard the Indies will ditch Labor end of story, think about it as it gets them off the hook so to speak. So I don’t see the PM leaving any time soon.
There is a long way to go and anything can happen yet and I for one have faithy there will be a decent rally behind Gillard in the future.
by Paul_J on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:45 pm
PB is so boring today.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:45 pm
True, but my post was all about how badly Gillard is mounting her case.
….just saw Paul Howes on the news saying the same thing as it happens!!!
by Mod Lib on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:45 pm
rummel, Abbott is deliberately exploiting weak minds by conflating “carbon tax” with “carbon pricing mechanism/scheme”. He knows there are people who are easily bamboozled and if he lies enough he’ll convince people to think that there was a promise to have no carbon pricing at all. That’s absolutely disgusting behaviour and you support him. Priceless. All you ever do here is go “I hate!”. Well, if people like you want to just blindly get mislead and react to their fear and anger and vote in sociopaths like Abbott you’ll get what you deserve.
by cud chewer on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:45 pm
AWU Presser supporting Carbon Price
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5JSckjaImE&feature=feedu
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:46 pm
Almost sane, but then so is replacing Abbott with Turnbull.
by fredn on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:46 pm
Gary, I suspect the next election will be about 54:46% to the Coalition at this stage (I have seen enough mid term polls to realise there is no way the election will be 60:40).
by Mod Lib on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:47 pm
It’s extraordinary; over 95% of climate scientists tell us that they are 100% certain the Earth is warming and that they are 95% certain that human activity is responsible for it, yet we still have many people who say they aren’t convinced.
There is only one adequate depiction of such a view:
http://bit.ly/nYGfZy
by Aristotle on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:47 pm
We don’t need any more comedy Glen, we have you.
We also get more than out fair share of repeats with Evan, other than when his account was hijacked for one post last week, when he was scared the tide might be turning.
by roaldan1000 on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:47 pm
This is like saying you never eat peanuts, but quite enjoy peanut butter.
by ShowsOn on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:47 pm
“Bugger policies, improving the country, making life better for people. nah forget that. I don’t like her so nick off woman.”
Oh get off your high horse…. The same can be said about Gillard knifing Kev, and i will say it. Gillard knifed Kev because the back door boys of the right said so, stuff the voters, stuff policies, stuff every thing just nick of Kev… And stuff every thing they have.
by rummel on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:47 pm
They ran the “food will increase more than treasury modelling predicts” story in Melbourne.
by madcyril on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:47 pm
No it wasn’t. You linked a specific part of mumbles article dealing with her press club performance. Don’t come that crap.
by Gary on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:47 pm
Yeah, because predicting election results 2 years out makes perfect sense.
by ShowsOn on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:48 pm
More fodder for the face.
by Gary on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:49 pm
Yep, based on research they won’t publish and is clearly spin – as pointed out on PM tonight.
by cud chewer on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:49 pm