Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
@ Mod Lib
There is no way the entire Labor party are going to publicly apologise to Rudd. Imagine the questions at every presser to ALP ministers they would be made to look like a bunch of incompetents. If they reinstate Rudd I would vote for Abbott in protest and I actually like the former PM !
by Paul_J on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:49 pm
Aristotle
.
Oh oh looks like Tony Abbott’s policy on Climate Change has been leaked.
by poroti on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:49 pm
I think one way or another, we can safely assume the next poll wont be in 2 years time. 2 months more likely than 2 years I would guess…
by Mod Lib on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:50 pm
Puff
They aren’t worthy of our serious attention. It’s brain-numbing.
Goodnight.
by lizzie on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:51 pm
More fodder. Keep it coming.
by Gary on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:51 pm
As Darryl Kerrigan said:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mv2JDCKLi0k
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:52 pm
Ooo.. Labor has moved out to $2.75 on sportingbet.
by cud chewer on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:52 pm
Perhaps I should have posted more from Mumble?
and
by Mod Lib on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:52 pm
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
#Newscorpse is sponsoring a remake of Hogan’s Heroes where everyone dressed up as Sgt Schultz and says “I know nothing, i know nothing”
13 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:53 pm
Ditto for Sydney. No surprise I guess given that Channel 7 are hardly friends of the carbon price.
by rishane on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:53 pm
I think we can safely say it will be in 2 years. At least with the 2 months thing we won’t have to wait long to throw that egg. Thanks ML.
by Gary on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:53 pm
Bit of a grand statement. Based on what, exactly, do we make this safe assumption?
by To Speak of Pebbles on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:54 pm
Yeah, because predicting the election date, almost 2.5 years before it is required, makes perfect sense.
by ShowsOn on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:54 pm
Crean more vanilla than vanilla, more oderlous and colourless than water.
by Thomas Paine on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:54 pm
Anyone care to guess who said that….
by ShiftyPhil on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:54 pm
Wrong again. Nothing feeble about them.
by Gary on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:54 pm
The independents will agree with any change if they think it improves the Govt’s lot, thus their own.
by Thomas Paine on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:55 pm
Don’t you get it? It was a SAFE assumption that he made “one way or another”.
That is TWO different pieces of information that supported his assertion!
What more do you want? REAL evidence?
by ShowsOn on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:55 pm
lizzie,
I am keeping my eye on it in case some intelligent discussion suddenly breaks out, but you are right, it is brain-numbing to the max.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:55 pm
Mod Lib @ 1752,
I’m prepared to wager serious money you are wrong.
There can’t be an election within two months.
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:55 pm
Shifty, Howard? Should I have put a comma there?
by Gary on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:55 pm
Puff
by lizzie on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:56 pm
Wrong. They have made it clear they dealt with Gillard, you know the one you supported 100%.
by Gary on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:57 pm
All that we can safely say is it will be held no later than 30 November 2013 and no sooner than the 27th August 2011, as of present.
by To Speak of Pebbles on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:57 pm
Very close, but not quite. Think even more hypocritical.
by ShiftyPhil on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:58 pm
Terrible polls if they remain for too much long will become self reinforcing and those lost rusted ons will become rusted offs.
by Thomas Paine on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:58 pm
TSOP.. what sets the 27th Aug date?
by cud chewer on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:58 pm
Windsor isn’t so self interested:
- Tony Windsor 11/7/11
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-14102415
by ShowsOn on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:58 pm
ABBOTT.
by Gary on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:59 pm
There could be a House of Reps only election.
by ShowsOn on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:59 pm
And you’re solution, TP? I can’t recall you ever saying anything constructive here.
by cud chewer on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:59 pm
I’d think Abbott, over that promised health funding??
by imacca on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:59 pm
Pebbles,
There’s still 3 weeks before Parliament returns and then you ned at least 28 days finishing on a Saturday.
Earliest is about Grand Final weekend.
Won’t happen.
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 18, 2011 at 6:59 pm
Was going by the hypothetical of what would happen if it were called tomorrow, when would be the earliest day the election could be held.
by To Speak of Pebbles on Jul 18, 2011 at 7:00 pm
There’s plenty going on in the UK with the Murdoch issue. This Guardian site will refresh itself with the latest happenings.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/blog/2011/jul/18/phone-hacking-scandal-live-coverage
by BK on Jul 18, 2011 at 7:00 pm
This enfeebled outfit has passed all of its legislation only once amended in 165 bills. The Carbon Pricing legislation will be law in a few months.
The only part of the Carbon package that will need separate legislation is support for the steel industry, can Abbott really vote against it when the rest is law?
Abbott has kicked the first goal in the Grand Final, yet some people are willing to say he has won already.
by ruawake on Jul 18, 2011 at 7:00 pm
Is there a difference between Gillard and Crean, apart from hair colour?
by Thomas Paine on Jul 18, 2011 at 7:00 pm
Answer is here: http://sgp1.paddington.ninemsn.com.au/sunday/political_transcripts/article_1761.asp?s=1
by ShiftyPhil on Jul 18, 2011 at 7:01 pm
Whatever makes you feel good TP but I’m calling BS on that.
by Gary on Jul 18, 2011 at 7:01 pm
and October is CHOGM
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 18, 2011 at 7:01 pm
TP,
It’s intrsting that many bloggers on PB complained about the poll driven ALP at the last election.
Now you’re saying call an election based on the polls?
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 18, 2011 at 7:01 pm
Does anyone really believe that Oakshott and Windsor would withdraw their support for Labor if Julia got the big A?
If they did there would be an election and they would be booted by their electorates
No, they’ll stick like glue to whoever leads Labor so they hang on to their jobs and pollie perks for another 2 years
by vera on Jul 18, 2011 at 7:01 pm
Frank,
Your self-control is amazing. I love the music links. Today is a bit like http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWYvl_AIIbU
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 18, 2011 at 7:02 pm
How are you TSOP? Its a pleasure to chat after so long, hope all is well.
Yes, it probably deserved some explanation, no doubt will be contentious. I just cannot see how Gillard can extricate herself from the corner she is in. I can’t see the polls changing dramatically (of course there will be some bumbling along the bottom, where we must be by now, as you don’t tend to get TPPs in the 60s much in federal politics. So what could happen:
1. ALP member bailing
2. Indie bailing
3. Gillard being dumped and new leader going to election
4. New leader triggering 1 or 2
5. Gillard going to an early election to deflate the “you said you wouldn’t do this” meme (there is nothing much she can do about the “you walked away from this meme”
6. Let alone a No confidence motion with an ALP member caught in the loo etc etc
I suspect one of these will happen. Yes the 2m was a hyperbole but just saying its not going to be 2 years.
by Mod Lib on Jul 18, 2011 at 7:02 pm
Okay, I wasn’t actually suggesting that is when the election would be, I was just mentioning the two extremes as hypotheticals just to demonstrate that some Saturday between those two dates is when the next poll will happen and that’s the safest thing we can say at this point.
by To Speak of Pebbles on Jul 18, 2011 at 7:03 pm
Mod Lib,
Hyperbole is PB talk for bullshitting.
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 18, 2011 at 7:04 pm
If Gillard stepped down voluntarily it wouldn’t be so bad but if she gets knifed I’m sure the indies would be very unhappy.
by Diogenes on Jul 18, 2011 at 7:04 pm
Does Parliament have to return? Can’t it just be called now if Gillard choses and asks GG?
by Mod Lib on Jul 18, 2011 at 7:04 pm
David Cameron is doing a press conference with South African President Jacob Zuma.
The first question Cameron gets is about phone hacking, specifically the Met head resigning. The first question Zuma gets is about whether or not he thinks Gaddafi should resign.
by ShowsOn on Jul 18, 2011 at 7:05 pm
And not just that. I’ve noticed that the same commenters who attacked NSW Labor for its leadership merry go round in reaction to polling are the same people agitating for a leadership change now based on poor polling.
Some folks will just never be satisfied.
by confessions on Jul 18, 2011 at 7:05 pm