Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
GD
There is only one serious issue facing the world today: AGW. Whatever else you might say about ML and Glen, both talk like Do-nothings. Peas in a pod.
by Boerwar on Jul 18, 2011 at 7:56 pm
Excellent!
Hang on, the Greens initiated it? It should be sweet, I hope
by Centre on Jul 18, 2011 at 7:57 pm
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
Abbott said it’s policies not the leader, MSM hacks say it’s the leader not policies. both fuacking wRONg, it’s Abbott & MSM hacks #auspol
35 seconds ago
by The Finnigans on Jul 18, 2011 at 7:58 pm
Mr Abbott shed his shirt and tie for his Lindsey visit. Must have thought he was going to Boganland. Wore some sort of powder blue top. Not sure how that went down in the West.
by Boerwar on Jul 18, 2011 at 7:58 pm
Vera 1791,
What is Oake’s pension looking like? Does he have something up the sleeve from NSW parl days?
Windsor is OK pension wise.
Iv’e spoken not to each of them personally but to office staff and in Oakes case he thinks he is in a situation where he will struggle already but he is not giving up the fight. No matter who is ALP leader Abbott has p’ed him off so much he won’t change.
Windsor is running at about 50/50 at the moment but he has the same determination as Oakes. Abbott has burnt his bridges with indies to extent that I think Latham could come back and they will still oppose Abbott
by RNM1953 on Jul 18, 2011 at 7:58 pm
Were these 3 debates to include the Greens? After all they are always wanting to eat at the grown ups table.
by blackburnpseph on Jul 18, 2011 at 7:58 pm
Bludgers make sure you stock up with extra big bags of popcorn. Tuesday is the the day that Rupert and crew face up to the peeved parliament chappies. Is it being broadcast ?
by poroti on Jul 18, 2011 at 7:59 pm
Puff, did you see the painted ones?
My oo-la-lah French cousins are very cute, oui?
http://www.customgetaways.com/photos/images/TourDeFrance/cows.jpg
by vera on Jul 18, 2011 at 7:59 pm
BBS,
They could always replace the Libs who don’t.
It’s chicken nuggets for everyone as far as the Coalition is concerned.
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:01 pm
poroti, Labor should make that as part of a carbon scheme advertisment.
If you need to get into a brawl to get maximum coverage, then they should go for it.
Plenty don’t like loud mouth Gloria
by Centre on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:01 pm
GP
Here’s another opportunity for you to exercise your selective outrage:
Mr Jones has apparently said that he wants to put Ms Gillard into a chaff bag and throw her into the sea.
If so, he has obviously given it some technical thought. How so, the city person, who would not know the difference between a chaff bag and other bags, might ask?
The answer is that Ms Gillard would not fit in a potato bag. Few adults would. But a chaff bag is a fair bit bigger. Ms Gillard would fit.
I do hope the AFP are looking close and hard at that one.
by Boerwar on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:01 pm
very boring, i have mentioned a few time but the boss doesnt listen if this goes on and you all talk to the same old people from the dark side, then all that will be here is them,
its william poll area i know but why leave neilson up there when ess. comes why cannot ess, be on the top they came in second, its for the lurkers that come here its bad enough the abc dont even mention ess, but i feel here it should be on top when it arrives why is that”
and why put another newld pooool up we only had one last week,”"”"
22/12 why am i cynic or may be the word we could use is a denielist
by my say on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:02 pm
the first half of 7.30 report was very very intersting,
by my say on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:02 pm
Vera,
I saw those ones on TV, udderly bewdiful! There were some pretty impressive equines too.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:02 pm
The economic modelling paper which shows that the costs the coalition has budgetted for for their soil carbon initiative is out by anything from 8 to 20 times.
http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/100575/2/Kragt%20M.pdf
by confessions on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:02 pm
Thanks to Boerwar
by Darren Laver on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:02 pm
let’s not be too parochial now
the game changer is in England. I now see Murdoch in jail and bankrupt – at least latter. shares fall, costs raise, investors withdraw, he fails character test, charge with criminal behaviour along with son and Red Ink. Oz and Telegraph etc sold to raise money esp for creditors (like shareholders). the sting out of oz politics, truth and harmony returns.
I sleep easily.
by geoffrey on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:03 pm
vera,
They look like the bridesmaids from Sophie Mirrabella’s wedding.
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:03 pm
boerwar where did you hear that about the chaff bag
by my say on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:04 pm
My say
Why was 7.30 very interesting
by victoria on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:04 pm
I’m sure that Niki Savva will be onto this. I mean the PM ditched her handbag and all hell broke out.
by confessions on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:04 pm
vera
Tres belle !
by poroti on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:04 pm
I believe so, yes.
by confessions on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:04 pm
centre
yup
bob and julia, tony and warren
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:05 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJZMtPy1brM
by ShowsOn on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:06 pm
[1919 victoria
Posted Monday, July 18, 2011 at 8:04 pm | Permalink
My say
Why was 7.30 very interesting]more stuff from the uk if i can find alink i will put here other wise maybe shouldnt discuss it
by my say on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:06 pm
GG
re the TTF and Cadel
Rua is right when he says time trail
all Cadel has to do is watch and wait until then
If the Schlecks or Contador make a move in the Alps all he has to do is sit on their wheels.
He will kick some Schleck arse in TT and is far enough in front of Contador to be able to give him a minute or so
by vera on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:07 pm
gus,
Wasn’t there a movie like that in the 60′s.
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:07 pm
Victoria
7.30 report interesting because of Elle MacPherson, her associate, News of World phone tap incident – and all the consequences including ongoing unsettled court. How many bushfires already exist before the perfect political storm that now rages.
by geoffrey on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:07 pm
my say
Now i am really curious!
by victoria on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:07 pm
Oh god I knew it, don’t tell me the Greens will be part of the debate?
I can imagine it now, criticising both Liberal and Labor EQUALLY at every opportunity!
Bad news I tell you
by Centre on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:07 pm
GG
the omen?
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:07 pm
my say
.
Why. It still not be even 7:00 over here in the rootin tootin wild west.
by poroti on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:07 pm
geoffrey,
“twill be done. And so, besides, to bed the beast …”
by Tony Jenner on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:08 pm
Is there anywhere online where I can see the carbon tax ad? TIA.
by vitalise on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:08 pm
Sums it up perfectly, GG. A decent bloke but lacking that bit of fight which you develop when you have to earn your place. I still blame him for blowing the 98 election. He should have nailed Howard and Reith over the Waterfront fiasco during the campaign.
Rather ironic that Crean had a similar privileged upbringing, but has actually developed that bit of mongrel by having to fight against losing his endorsement. Not that I’m endorsing him now – that’s just Bolt propaganda. But he has become an asset in the ministry.
Given the wrecking campaign continuing it is madness to consider a swap. Gillard is actually best equipped to take the Abbott hits, and if the ministerial performance is anything to go by she’s got them working as a team.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:08 pm
geoffrey
I see. Thanks.
by victoria on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:08 pm
centre
bob is on a mission
he will only be out to diss news
(if it still exists by then)
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:09 pm
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/video/2009/jul/10/news-of-the-world-phone-hacking
anna albarecia covered this story,, she does wonderful interview that lady,
by my say on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:09 pm
Centre:
It’s good the Greens will be in a debate. The party needs greater scrutiny.
by confessions on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:10 pm
gus,
Nah, Bob and Ted and Alice’s Resataurant I think.
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:10 pm
my say
its
emma alberici
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:10 pm
by confessions on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:11 pm
Re-posting:
Posted Tuesday, July 12, 2011 at 6:37 pm | Permalink
According to the Greens-Labor agreement http://greens.org.au/sites/greens.org.au/files/Final%20Agreement%20_ALP_GRNS.pdf
a) Establish a Leaders’ Debate Commission
15 April 2011: http://tinyurl.com/5w9uw4p
Greens leader Bob Brown looks set to share the stage with Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott in the leaders’ debate at the next federal election.
In her agreement with the Greens to form minority government .. the Prime Minister promised to set up a leaders’ debate commission, and now Mr Brown says he’s received confirmation that it’ll go ahead.
by Pegasus on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:11 pm
what ever gus face does it matter she is still the only juno in the abc i watch
by my say on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:11 pm
cheers ru!
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:12 pm
special of the day
tofu for you
by vera on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:12 pm
Why. It still not be even 7:00 over here in the rootin tootin wild west.
you will be surprised who else is in the story,
by my say on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:12 pm
Vera
Some way good Moo cows. Must see at 0.23 Vera and Finnigans in perfect harmoony.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QMU2W11hRzI&feature=related
by poroti on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:13 pm
Chris Uhlmann wouldn’t know a policy even if Gai made it a condition of service.
by This little black duck on Jul 18, 2011 at 8:14 pm