Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
fess
posted this earlier
franksting RT @leohickman: House of Lords takes ‘unprecedented’ step in attempt to stop Chris Monckton claiming he is a member gu.com/p/3vj7e/tw
monckton is more toss than toff
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:35 pm
Those old farts?
by To Speak of Pebbles on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:35 pm
Evan, but will he follow the many nervous backbenchers’ lead and call on Kev “i’m from Qld and I’m here to help” to join him on a few street walks and shopping centre meet and greets!
by vera on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:35 pm
Mal Brough/Bruce Bilson – dream ticket!
They are certainly a pigeon pair.
Mr Brough already knows how to push Indigenous people around and Mr Bilson has the goons.
by Boerwar on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:35 pm
Twiggy is not only a blow hard but a mega simpering light weight.
by waznaki on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:36 pm
Essentially because the connection between temperature rise and the level of CO2 concentration isn’t linear.
by Glen on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:36 pm
As far as I can tell there are no Minchinites who support an ETS. Unless someone’s prepared to buck the trend, that is.
by confessions on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:36 pm
Well yeah.
by ShowsOn on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:36 pm
I do wonder if she realises she is in parliament
i still see her as some sort of high school debater
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:37 pm
Not quite. I’ll give you a clew. It’s called internal climate variability – would you like more, or are you ok with knowing just a little bit to get you by?
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:37 pm
just in case finns is getting homesick for japan
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KfMJcqM7LOI&feature=related
by Thomas Paine on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:37 pm
clew=clue
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:37 pm
You are evil Vera!
by Mod Lib on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:37 pm
Good stuff against The Daily Telegraph on the Media Report. Wtte about reporting everything bad against the carbon “tax” and nothing good, notwithstanding News Ltd’s head insisting that News Ltd employees adhere to the so-called code of ethics about “balanced” reporting. Media Report gave a few examples.
The Media Report is suggesting that since Paul Whittaker took over the bad news reporting against the Govt has intensified. The host also suggests that regulation is not the answer as, like ACMA, they have no teeth to do anything.
It seems the Media Report is the only part of their ABC etc which tells it like it really is – an orchestrated campaign against the government. I look forward to the Murdochracy being implicated in the same sort of stuff here as in the UK since I doubt very much if it has not happened, no matter what crap we get from News Ltd’s boss in Australia.
by Allan Moyes on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:38 pm
Is this true?
by victoria on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:38 pm
Gus:
That’s brilliant! Not only has Monckton been forced to clarify his ‘I won a Nobel Prize when working at the IPCC’ , but is now being shunned by actual Lords.
by confessions on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:38 pm
Captaining Truthie’s tinny.
by This little black duck on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:39 pm
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
@latrioli TRioli, i am glad you know who you are #qanda
now
by The Finnigans on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:39 pm
Sure why not the last few links were helpful…
I wonder what the front page of the Telegraph will be for the rest of the week???
by Glen on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:39 pm
Oh no, Trioli running Q&A
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:39 pm
Allan Moyes
How have you been?
by victoria on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:39 pm
Holmes gave 2GB a big serve, chaff bag and all.
by This little black duck on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:40 pm
Sorry, Media Report should, of course, be Media Watch! Doh!
by Allan Moyes on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:40 pm
First Prize
Roflled at that one
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:40 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/2799154.html
May I recommend Mungo McCallum’s latest on unleashed.
by Gweneth on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:40 pm
Q&A: Jerry Springer for intellectuals.
by confessions on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:40 pm
I can see you don’t know what I’m talking about. Let’s change to something you’re more comfortable with:
1. What’s the next hill Abbott will ride his bicycle over?
2. What piece of heavy machinery will Abbott attempt to operate?
3. What colour tie will he wear next week?
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:41 pm
waznaki
Posted Monday, July 18, 2011 at 9:31 pm | Permalink
Rubbish.
by Cuppa on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:41 pm
Glen
read this
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/polluted-china-plans-carbon-emissions-trading-scheme/story-e6frg6so-1226096969756
it should answer your scratched record ‘point’ that Australia being part of a global solution will ‘make no difference’. South Korea introduced a system a few weeks ago. Japan said it would not act if china didn’t. the US always claims it will not act until china will. This is the best news I have read in ages. I hope Julia and Combet shoves this so far up Abbott that even News (very) Limited can’t ignore his stupidity.
by sustainable future on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:41 pm
1. What’s the next hill Abbott will ride his bicycle over?
– an angry termite hill?
2. What piece of heavy machinery will Abbott attempt to operate?
– a wrecking ball
3. What colour tie will he wear next week?
– what colour is A Jones wearing?
by nappin on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:44 pm
I hope some of the Bludgers got to see tonights episode of Media Watch, it was an absolutely beauty!
No wonder the polls against Labor are very bad at present, regardless of the performance of the PM and her policies.
Media Watch all but exposed the blatant bias that exists in the Daily Telegraph and Radio 2GB.
When are you Alan (Gloria) Jones going to do us all a favour and get that one final great big headache?
by Centre on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:44 pm
nappin, koala bear stamp!
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:45 pm
One should not discount the chance of Abbott moving a no-confidence motion when parliament resumes on 16 August. Handled correctly it could give Abbott a political boost even if the NCM is not passed.
The indications are already there for an imminent NCM. The groundwork for such a motion has been set by his allies in the media. 2GB abandoning the CATA rally for 16 August also indicates that the Coalition political script is about to change.
Abbott could announce 2 weeks before parliament meets that he will move a NCM when parliament returns, citing current polls evidencing the will of the people. If he is appointed PM in the aftermath, he would call an election.
TA could also offer to any non-Coalition MP that supports his motion, that they will not be challenged by a Coalition candidate at the fresh election. The benefit of this is two-fold. Firstly he admits that the NCM may not succeed, thus lowering expectations that it will pass. Secondly, by holding out the olive branch to non-Coalition MP’s he will be seen as less partisan.
With this framework in place, the next 2 weeks become an enormous pressure test for the Government and their cross bench supporters. Expect a political pressure cooker environment reinforced by the din of social media that has accompanied previous leadership challenges.
The only way this could blow-up for Abbott is if the two week period between the announcement and the vote is marred by excessive hubris from Coalition MP’s or their supporters and the motion does not pass.
Now the NCM may not pass, however those who vote down the motion can then be pinned down as those MP’s “who supported the CT and defied the will of the people”. Also for a few weeks the government will have to defend its existence thus depriving it of political clear air.
In short a NCM on 16 August has more upside than downside for Abbott.
by Scrutineer on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:45 pm
Night all. Sweet dreams.
by Boerwar on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:45 pm
1. Gillard’s political grave?
2. Airforce 1?
3. None (shirtless and speedo for Menshealth)?
by Mod Lib on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:45 pm
Centre
Missed media watch. Will watch it on iview.
by victoria on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:45 pm
I recall reading a book, or seeing a movie about this kind of thing.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-07-18/mothers-get-wrong-babies-in-hospital-mix-up/2798770
by confessions on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:46 pm
scrutineer
wtf
this aint bolts blog laddie
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:47 pm
Hi Victoria
I’m in training to be a census collector so I’ve been a bit busy. I might even, unbeknownst, be paying some of you a visit, however my area only covers a small part of Beenleigh in Qld so I doubt if I’ll be able to share a chat. How have you all been?
I see the usual comments about the admittedly abysmal polls but as I posted a little while ago I always think, at times like these, of one of my favourite poems. It’s “Say Not The Struggle Naught Availeth” by Arthur Clough. The last two verses in particular always give me encouragement whenever I’m feeling low.
For while the tired waves, vainly breaking,
Seem here no painful inch to gain,
Far back, through creeks and inlets making,
Comes silent, flooding in, the main.
And not by eastern windows only,
When daylight comes, comes in the light;
In front the sun climbs slow, how slowly!
But westward, look, the land is bright!
by Allan Moyes on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:47 pm
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
Trioli, shutup #qanda
now
by The Finnigans on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:47 pm
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/07/17/995568/-Fmr-Fox-News-Executive:-Americans-Phones-Were-Hacked
by Gaffhook on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:48 pm
the humdingers keep-a-comin’
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:48 pm
Rubbish perhaps. Meh. Is just my take. Wouldn’t have liked it personally.
by waznaki on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:48 pm
Am enjoying not watching iTroll.
by This little black duck on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:49 pm
Virginia Trioli working hard to push the “Julia lied” garbage
by drake on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:49 pm
Remember, this is Balance and political comment PB Style
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:49 pm
Yes Victoria watch it. I recommend other Bludgers watch also.
by Centre on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:49 pm
Gweneth@2174,
Yes, indeed, a brilliant read – thanks for the link.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – Abbott is just a petulant manchild. He’s willing to wreck not only the economy, but even his own children’s future in his desperation to get into the Lodge.
He’s one sick puppy.
by Oscar on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:50 pm
Q&A is an absolute shocker tonight
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:50 pm
http://www.meattradenewsdaily.co.uk/news/150711/australia___herald_weekly_times_journalist_mark_dunn_implicated_in_new_murdoch_scandal.aspx
by Gaffhook on Jul 18, 2011 at 9:50 pm