Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Then, of course, we have the cheeky chappie Max at the Met, a Benny Hill-like character.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zYv1CANs9hE
by This little black duck on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:27 pm
So The Bill wasn’t a documentary. Well, knock me down with a feather duster!
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:27 pm
btw
the events in britain have made strange bedfellows
strange days indeed
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:29 pm
1934,
are you sure they aren’t parasites?
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:31 pm
Connecting with others is a very important part of being human and a protection from harm. Let’s celebrate that for a moment on PB!
by Gweneth on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:31 pm
We each have as much anonymity here as we want. I dare say that being able to bare some soul here has been responsible for sparing some sanity.
by This little black duck on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:32 pm
gwen
*group huggsies*
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:33 pm
Duck,
We have the whole alphabet right down to ar soles.
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:34 pm
gus @ 2406
Hmmm is that meant to sum up PB?
by bemused on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:35 pm
William,
I emailed you this evening but it bounced back
Having been touched by some of the more personal posts here tonight I have decided to let the events of last night pass without further ado. Though I must say, I thought the allegations GP made were disgraceful and cowardly and (with respect) hope you take a firmer hand next time.
by drake on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:35 pm
It’s referred to as the Werther Effect (after Goethe’s novel The Sorrows of Young Werther which triggered an epidemic of suicides after publication).
Cobain’s suicide triggered lots of calls to crisis centres but no actual increase in suicides, even in Seattle. The reasons for this are controversial.
by Diogenes on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:36 pm
Are you angling for a job as The Parrot’s scriptwriter now, Evan? He was talking about wrapping the Prime Minister in a chaff bag and tossing her into the sea and her “near treasonable” actions. Relieving Swan of his ministerial duties seems in the same category.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:36 pm
bemused
there are soem issues that transcend political allegiance
those are the times for
*group huggsies*
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:37 pm
And a hug for Gus
by drake on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:38 pm
I wanna hug.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:39 pm
edyong209 Rebekah Brooks has resigned! Sky bid dropped! NotW extinct! Only four horcruxes left to go and Murdoch will be mortal again!
GOLD
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:39 pm
DIogs,
It’s controversial because no one can explain why you’d blow your own head off with a shot gun.
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:39 pm
How sad.
Good night all.
(Formally Scringler).
by Tony Jenner on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:40 pm
Did someone mention hugs?
by Dan Gulberry on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:40 pm
Get over yourself.
You are judgmental – aligning yourself with the other contemptibles.
by charlton on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:40 pm
puff
*huggsies*
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:41 pm
gus @ 2412
Agreed. And letting it all out is cathartic.
by bemused on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:41 pm
dan
my arms are tired
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:41 pm
Wow, off for four hours and still the same four people repeating exactly the same things, over and over. You have to admire the stamina.
by Goshome on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:41 pm
I’m putting the kettle on for a cuppa before bed
Anyone want to share my pot
by vera on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:41 pm
ta, gus.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:42 pm
Lounge hug!
by This little black duck on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:42 pm
No. All that means is that Jones is a dirty energy plant. Sounds pretty accurate judging by the Media Watch examples tonight.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:42 pm
Cobain saved my life
by drake on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:42 pm
Just watched 2012 on sky. It’s a movie about the next election in Australia when everyone makes for arks after the result Abbott. A catastrophe awaits
by centaur009 on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:42 pm
gus
pfftt
by Dan Gulberry on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:42 pm
*hugs* for all on PB
But there will be no hugs for the MPs who vote for a NCM against the PM as per scrutineers post. In fact the opposite. What a cynical move!
But I say “Go for it!”
Then we will have a list of MPs who tried to upend action against climate change for short term political gain in Hansard for all prosperity. A legacy for their children.
by Gweneth on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:43 pm
dan
can you give goshome a hug
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:43 pm
Vera,
Pour me a cup plz, milk, half a tsp sugar. Ta.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:44 pm
vera
Acapulco Gold?
by Dan Gulberry on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:44 pm
The end of the Murdoch Empire
________________________
Nail Ferguon as noted UK historian says great collapses in history often happen with surprising suddenness.
In 1789 France was the biggest and richest nation in Europe…French the language of elites(especially in Russia and Prussia). Paris the centre of Europe..then bang!!!
a series of bank crashes,a huge depression,the fall of the Bastille,the end of the Dynasty..the Lot !!..
Think of 1918
How would have believed on that famous last Sunday of peace in Europe…August 4th.1914 that in just four year,the Emperors of Germany.Austria-Hungary.and Turkey would be in exile and the Russian Royal family would lie dead in a pit..and there would be 50 million dead of war and famine…what a crash !
In 1945, a the UK celebrated the defeat of Hitler.. but in just a few years the British Empire would be gone…India independent, The Lot..!!!!!
and who would have believed that the reformist Gorbechov would bring about the collapse of the whole Soviet Empire
So too with Emperor” Rupert the Liar”. What power he once held ..and abused…and now all in ruins..and he’s a sad old man.(but how wonderful to see it all come about)
by deblonay on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:45 pm
dan
u iz norty norty norty
i vant haff
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:45 pm
so angry so abusive
so sad
by vera on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:46 pm
I’ll have coca tea, thanks. Wonder if they let you import the stuff. They should: you can’t reconstitute it into anything dangerous.
by This little black duck on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:48 pm
btw
brideshead revisited is on abc1
never seen it before- but I remember it caused a fuss
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:48 pm
vera,
Fight fight fight amigo.
Good night.
Lots of luv.
by Greensborough Growler on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:48 pm
PS …re sudden collapses of nations.
__________________________
Is the USA the next candidate for sudden collapse ??
nothing is impossible !!
by deblonay on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:49 pm
nah only got the Lipton jigglers
by vera on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:50 pm
So a beat up?
Figures.
by confessions on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:50 pm
Ian Curtis always sticks out to me as a notable suicide. When does misery go too far and consume you?
by To Speak of Pebbles on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:50 pm
Nite GG
by vera on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:51 pm
If the USA collapses they would have done it to themselves. I blame non-compulsory voting.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:51 pm
Puff,
The US of A doesn’t have enough Bludgers.
by This little black duck on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:52 pm
Are Tony Jenner and ‘scorpio’ the same people?
They have the same gravitas.
by confessions on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:52 pm
blackie
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 18, 2011 at 11:53 pm