Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
morning bludgers, libs everywhere seem emboldened, at a shopping centre car park this morning I heard someone telling a stranger their trolley won’t need to carry as much thanks to julia. Spotted him later getting into his 4wd lexus with personalized plates.( Who would have guessed )
by mickt on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:18 am
my say
back in the mists of time
circa 2006
some here like cuppa bb frank etc were real concerned by the increasing level of bias and misinformation
finally the liars and spivs are being bought to account
by gusface on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:20 am
by OzPol Tragic on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:23 am
mickt
there is a certain frenzy among the fibotariat
i suspect they realise the light of day is about to stream into their dark crevasses
by gusface on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:24 am
Oooops…just noticed…should be OPT @2679….
by markjs on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:25 am
Given the pressure she’s been under, she truly is remarkable & I’m very confident the public will eventually accept this & relegate that pissant Abbott to the garbage heap where he belongs.
Do you know the name of the journo who labelled her as gutless?
by charlton on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:26 am
There, that’s better! Scringler here, AKA Tony Jenner. Not that it matters, but just for the record. I have never been a “sock puppet”. Jeez, one has some standards, but cannot vouch for certain sleazy events after midnight … er.
+++
Many, many posts ago someone questioned the role of Newspoll in the Oz. Wtte, is it being used to reflect public opinion or form public opinion?
george, I think, went for the latter and I agree.
The Oz has used every trick in the book to destabilize the Gillard Government. Why should Newspoll be exempt from this journalistic bastardry?
Also, any news on Scott at the ABC?
by Scringler on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:28 am
OPT
I really do hope there is an investigation here too!
by victoria on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:28 am
Brings to mind gollum,my precious my precious
by mickt on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:30 am
When you get this headline things aren’t going your way !
http://www.watoday.com.au/lifestyle/people/porn-king-larry-flynt-questions-murdochs-morality-20110718-1hlb4.html
by poroti on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:31 am
Scringler
There was confusion last night, because your gravatar resembled another poster.
Anyhow welcome back as Scringler.
The Nielsen Poll is done by Fairfax and it follows pretty much the trajectory of the other polls, apart from Essential at the moment.
by victoria on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:31 am
Charlton,
I beg your pardon, I misquoted him. Peter Hartcher: he didn’t say “gutless”, but “cowardice”…
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/a-modest-start-to-an-important-reform-but-dont-look-for-any-heroes-20110710-1h8yw.html
by Cuppa on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:32 am
gusface
Are the Libs really concerned? They seem cocky to me!
by victoria on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:32 am
Point taken.
by charlton on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:32 am
Maybe this will help things along?:
Petition for an inquiry into the Australian media
by Think Big on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:33 am
markjs
I have been expecting Abbott to fall over for months, but it did not happen. I dont know what to think anymore.
by victoria on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:34 am
Charlton…I know that Peter Hartcher said this in a recent piece…
“It’s a modest beginning to an important reform, but with Gillard’s cowardice, Brown’s spoiling and Abbott’s populism, Australia has ended up with a second-best effort – reform without heroes.”
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/a-modest-start-to-an-important-reform-but-dont-look-for-any-heroes-20110710-1h8yw.html#ixzz1SVj0zE1g
I don’t usually care what he writes…but was gobsmacked at him calling her a coward…. In my view she’s anything but…
by markjs on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:36 am
This is shameless of the ABC. I’m truly horrified. Bringing Julia down by making her a figure of fun when she’s already on the ropes smells of a definite “narrative” to me. It’s not the right time.
by lizzie on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:36 am
vic
yup
false bravado, also a quiet desperation.
the shrillness cant get any higher.
If they were confident they would be triumphal not trite
by gusface on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:36 am
Think Big,
And another:
Facebook Group: Support an Inquiry into Australia’s dodgy media
https://www.facebook.com/AustralianMediaInquiry?sk=wall
by Cuppa on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:36 am
Cuppa….SNAP!!
by markjs on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:37 am
Thanks.
He’ll be hearing from me.
by charlton on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:38 am
gusface
I dont get a sense of where the fibs are at the moment. I still feel that Labor is struggling to get the ascendancy.
by victoria on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:39 am
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-07-19/gillard-comedy-mini-series/2799940
Here’s Julia’s reaction to the ABC.
by lizzie on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:39 am
We’re on the same page Mark! (Enjoy your tweets, BTW).
by Cuppa on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:40 am
Some insightful comments this morning.
The following is partially worthy of mention.
“When we get to the point that unqualified people believe their opinion holds as much weight as a scientist who has studied the subject in question for thirty years you have to wonder just how enlightened we actually are. The internet provides every crackpot with a platform to shout out their wares and it is clear that the general public often lack the critical thinking and critical literacy skills required to assess the validity of the claims being made.
Which was reinforced by this …
“a talkback caller I heard explaining why AGW is rubbish starting off with the words “Now I’m not a university professor or anything BUT…” .The radio host later reassured the caller that while they may not have gone to university they had “graduated from the university of life”.
If anyone has tried to explain to those who have “graduated from the university of life” that 2 + 2 = 4 then you will realise how difficult it is to get them to address an issue let alone do some “real thinking” about it. They know it all and they are all too ready to tell you so.
It is a wonder that they do not go to the local plumber when they are sick in view of their disdain for education.
by Ratsars on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:41 am
Thanks.
He’ll now hear from me twice.
by charlton on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:42 am
quick quiz, who wrote this?
by gusface on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:42 am
I was amused at a comment in The Age this morning. A letter writer said Abbott walks like a gun slinger. A very apt description IMHO.
by Darn on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:43 am
gusface
Crabby?
by victoria on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:43 am
RBA minutes: getting cautious. (Stephen Long)
No interest rise in the near future, methinks.
by This little black duck on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:44 am
It’ll bomb. Parodies can’t sustain a TV show. They’re only good for sketch comedy.
I recall something similar done with GW Bush back in 01 which was quickly canned when 9/11 happened.
by To Speak of Pebbles on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:44 am
crabby uses the word daft a lot
by victoria on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:44 am
vic
nailed it
v poor article
i sense that line of defence will become the norm
by gusface on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:46 am
TSOP
Very wise comment. But I still wish they wouldn’t.
by lizzie on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:46 am
Thanks, victoria. Is Ted out of bed, yet? Needless to say, still disgusted. How do I do the quote thingo?
by Scringler on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:48 am
Lizzie
This makes me proud too.
I suspect the answer(s) are:
1. The Age – our media is not dominated by Murdoch media.
2. The Herald Sun – is not as extreme or political as other Murdoch rags – more focused on footy than anything else, and seems to have lost interest in greenhouse issues and doesn’t do the muslim bashing as much as other murdoch rags. It even has one or two non-right columnists. Bolt raves on, but most people see him as the buffoon that he is. He is certainly not feted and ‘respected’ by politicians the way Alan Jones is.
3. ABC 774 – Jon Faine is a fantastic thorn in the side of all politicians and is progressive/left wing – he also leads the ratings most of the time
4. Our shock jocks are not as crazy as in other states, and attempts to import the same have not rated very well. Neil Mitchell and Derryn Hinch are for the most part moderate and would have voted Labor at some time in their lives – they give shit to all politicians but will not the tolerate racists, bullshit and extreme nutters that Alan Jones tries to whip into a frenzy.
5. Years of competent Labor state government. I think Bracks or Thwaites would have won the last state election, but Brumby was too arrogant. Our liberals are still mostly small l liberals.
6. We have functioning infrastructure and not the same level of crowding as Sydney – our multiculturalism works and is celebrated and supported by both major state parties
7. We are generally more reserved and polite, and from the Gold Rush era have a culture of looking out for others and egalitarianism – we were once (in the late 1800s) the most progressive democracy in the world and leaders in working conditions, representative voting, suffrage, etc. The Irish Catholics and then waves of Italian and Greek migrants all with a strong sense of the ‘fair go’ and not taking life too seriously has helped (Sydney’s culture comes from the Rum Corps, and is just a more selfish sort of society – unfortunately, I think Victorians are catching up; Queenslanders and sandgropers were still out shooting Aboriginals right up to the 1930s, and still basically frontier societies)
8. We are more unionised and really hated Howard and workchoices and know that the libs will bring this back first chance they get
9. there is a respect for education and culture here that seems to not exist in states other than SA – and their labor:lib vote is usually better than the bogan states.
10. We are generally smarter, better educated and just nicer – I think it’s a cold versus hot weather thing I think – people get dumber and more bogan the closer you go to equator – consider the politics of cold weather countries and states compared to those closer to the equator. I’m sure Tassie would be better than 50:50 pro Labor, but don’t think they get polled? Someone should do a study of the effects of heat on brain development.
11 Julia. let’s face it – many Victorians are proud of her. I am.
12. Tony Abbott – he scares the shit out of us. He is everything we don’t like about NSW politics – rude, aggressive, racists and run by conservative catholics (a feature of having a large Irish Catholic population is that there are many many ex-catholics around who left the church because of nutters like Abbott)
by sustainable future on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:49 am
Thanx cuppa…. having problems with Tweetdeck api at the moment so not tweeting today…
by markjs on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:50 am
Dario@2695
The *old* glen prior to the 2007 election has been back for sometime.
The *other* glen was always a fraud.
We have had the *true* glen here for months.
As Willian said – “Slippery with the truth”.
I am amazed people were ever taken in by him.
The latest technique is to attack people and then appear magnanimous when he *withdraws*. Don’t be fooled.
by dave on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:51 am
gusface.
A Pom. Using “daft” gives it away.
by Scringler on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:52 am
If you think about it she does read her own stuff more than anyone else’s
by Danny Lewis on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:52 am
this is exactly why i have not yet taken out a cricky sub hobar abc have had some one on from crickey for years, it use ed to be stephen mayne the green,
now keane, i have not LISTED to this segment for years, the other presenter cox when to the abc in the gold coast, but it seems this guy has kept them on
why dont you write to keane and ask him
by my say on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:53 am
sustainable future
What a wonderful assessment. Spot on!
by victoria on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:53 am
Stephen mayne then Green
by my say on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:53 am
Oh good. Not just mine then.
by To Speak of Pebbles on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:54 am
Scringler
Put square [ brackets around what you’ve copies and want to show as a quote.Try preview to see if it looks right.
by Leroy on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:56 am
sustainable future
Good thoughts.
I also know that many of the natural history and conservation organisations were born in Victoria over 100 years ago. A good basis for our “new future”.
by lizzie on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:56 am
Alas for Julia, there aren’t enough marginal seats in Victoria to offset expected losses in NSW and QLD.
There’s a serious danger that Labor could lose every seat in the Sunshine State, including Griffith & Oxley.
by evan14 on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:57 am
It is quite odd to suggest the News Corp investigation is poorly timed.
Perhaps the poster has not been paying close attention, but the story has unearthed extraordinary influence on government by Rupert Murdoch, including the removal of a Shadow Minister in return for endorsement of a specific party and a level of informal and social contact well beyond that seen in normal circumstances.
Had the story not broken when it did, then this influence would have resulted in News Ltd getting a stranglehold on BskyB – an enormously profitable entity – without any proper public scrutiny.
Other discoveries have included systemic breaches of the law in regard to phone hacking, bribing of police officers and interaction considered so insidious that two of the nation’s most senior police officers have resigned.
There is every chance it could yet bring down a Prime Minister and fracture a coalition government forcing an election.
The ramifications for Australia should be immense. News Ltd is, ironically, using its media domination to try and paint any inquiry as censorship. However, there must be an inquiry into activities over the past decade in Australia, with both possible phone intercepts and possible payments to police directly targeted.
In a bizarre development News Ltd is using its own bias as a defence, trying to claim any inquiry is politically motivated.
Think this through – the more aggressive you are towards a government, the more you can avoid scrutiny because you can claim any examination must be politically motivated. What warped and yet brilliant logic.
Of course this defence is not in any way coordinated because News Ltd would never do that. It just so happens that coincidentally all their editorial writers and columnists have taken the same angle.
As well as possible phone hacking and police payments, any inquiry should also examine the effectiveness of the existing oversight bodies. ACMA, for example, seems completely unwilling or unable to act on flagrant breaches of commercial radio licence conditions by several stations in the Eastern States.
Poorly timed? For the people Murdoch has backed perhaps – who just happen to be conservative and sometimes even to the right of that – extremely good timing for anyone interested in proper democracy and open and accountable governance.
by roaldan1000 on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:58 am
Scringler
Ted? His deputy Ryan is the defacto leader
by victoria on Jul 19, 2011 at 11:58 am