Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
But they will get the CT up and running.
by Gary on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:36 pm
SimonThomsen Does that mean Lord Vader is member of the House of Lords too? #npc
by gusface on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:36 pm
That doesn’t excuse him for being a compulsive liar.
by ShowsOn on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:36 pm
Evidence?
by This little black duck on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:36 pm
Poor old Kevin Andrews wouldn’t know shite from clay.
by Gary on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:37 pm
ducky
Perception only, but that seems to be enough for the general public
by victoria on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:38 pm
Oh the irony! The hackers have been hacked.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2011/07/18/the-sun-newspaper-website_n_902084.html
by grantplant on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:38 pm
Journos covering Monckton today might like to see how he routintely misrepresents the scientists he cites: http://www.skepticalscience.com/Examples-Monckton-contradicting-scientific-sources.html
by lefty e on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:38 pm
Based on opinion polls it’s a correct descrption but based on actual performance it’s not.
by Gary on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:39 pm
grantplant
Yes indeed
by victoria on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:40 pm
Geez all the conspiracy theorists/Rightards/Deniers/looney tunes will be going ape on Twitter…think I’ll give it a miss for a while….
by markjs on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:40 pm
For reference:
by This little black duck on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:40 pm
And the good part about perceptions is that they are open to change over time.
by Gary on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:40 pm
This can’t be for real can it?
.
by hairy nose on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:40 pm
Dr Good @ 2896
My Mum had Graves Disease and really only your point No.4 applies to a life-threatening prognosis. I know a number of people who have had Graves Disease and once treated recovered and lead normal lives, albeit with the protruding eyes. It is rare that the disease is left untreated and these days the condition is picked up long before the physical symptoms appear – medical science at work.
by janice2 on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:40 pm
That response from Monckton about the House of Lords was a non-response, only believable by anyone who doesn’t know much about it. Producing a passport with his name on it doesn’t mean he has been invited to be a member, but his fans were delighted.
Unfortunately (fortunately?), Monckton ended with the rubbish about CO2 being the “greening of the world”.
It was noticeable that at least half the audience were his supporters. He seemed to think everyone in the room were Journos.
by lizzie on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:41 pm
ShowsOn
If, for reasons of his disease and disability, he can’t remember things, can’t work things out and can’t pay attention then that does excuse it a bit.
by Dr Good on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:41 pm
i miss stephen mayne dont think i have read much of crickey since stephen left
by scoutdog on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:41 pm
sorry, everyone was a journo.
by lizzie on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:41 pm
Great to see Gillard pursuing Abbott on this. He is either saying that he intends to do nothing – as Gillard says – or that he intends to spend $10B on a DA policy that by his own words will achieve nothing – as Chris Urlmann pointed out a couple of weeks ago. This should now hound him right up to polling day.
If the MSM don’t report what Gillard is saying she should call them on it. She has already admonished them for writing/talking “crap” so the door is now open. She should ask them at the next presser why they didn’t expose Abbott’s duplicity when she pointed it out and keep challenging them until they do. This technique – exposing the incompetence/bias of the press corps – is one which can be applied over and over again when important issues are allowed to fall through the cracks and Gillard is just the person to make it work.
by Darn on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:41 pm
You want flail? Check out Tone on ABC95 now.
by This little black duck on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:42 pm
Someone should ask Abbott when is he going to stop lying.
by Muskiemp on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:42 pm
Dr Good
.
He cannot possibly have Graves Disease. After all as you can read in the UKIP website his CV includes
Infectious diseases including MS and Graves Diesease eh ? To bask in the glory that is Lord Monckton read more here
http://www.ukip.org/content/latest-news/1675-christopher-a-man-of-many-talents
by poroti on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:44 pm
Dr Good,
He no longer has a “disease and disability” – unless of course he has extended his denial to the science of medicine as well as climate.
by janice2 on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:44 pm
Yes, mick, I’ll grant you that. But Kennett was a cunning political animal and knew Victorians would not hack Hanson. He sniffed the wind. Deep down and, as subsequent events proved, he was a bad as Howard. IMHO.
by Scringler on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:44 pm
He remembers many different facts and figures, but presents them in a completely misleading way.
by ShowsOn on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:45 pm
Why is Gillard criticised for the way she speaks when Abbott speaks in patches and he is OK?
by Muskiemp on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:45 pm
Mr Monckton reminds me of Sir Humphrey Appleby in the way he can spew forth an avalanche of words and you haven’t got a clue what he just said. The guy is an actor playing his part in keeping business interests happy.
by Mithrandir on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:45 pm
Thanks for those commenting on the Monkton diaatribe (non-debate). You have pretty much confirmed why I refused to tune in in the first place. No new information will come to light. Noone will change their views. Monkton will not admit past lies, or that he is wrong. Life is too short.
Apologies if others have already posted this, but it made me so happy I thought it was worth multple links: there is now open speculation that other NewsCorp board members may seek the resignation of Rupert Murdoch, due to the financial fallout on the group’s share price:
http://www.theage.com.au/business/world-business/news-directors-mull-ousting-murdoch-report-20110719-1hmaq.html
It should be remembered that, with the expansions over the years, the Murdoch family only owns 29% of NewsCorp. It is still a controlling stake, but drops in share price are causing other people to lose their money too (world wide) and they are not pleased.
Wouldn’t the Australian political landscape change if News Corp publications no longer plugged one side?
by Socrates on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:46 pm
Thanks janice2
I agree that it is common for people to recover almost completely. It is also possible that some people do not recover fully, or have side-effects from some of the psychotropic drugs that they need to take. There is a great variety in how it affects sufferers.
by Dr Good on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:46 pm
Of course! It is all one big routine. Look at the way he uses props – his DLP tie and handing his passport to the moderator!
He is a great actor.
by ShowsOn on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:49 pm
It is amazing that Monckton does not bother to list his cure for AIDS
amongst his other achievements
http://t.co/ZV2XShb
by Dr Good on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:49 pm
Boewar and Victoria I agree with you re Greece, it will get worst and IF they default as I think they could quite a few European Banks who own most of the debt will then be in trouble and it will keep spiralling, havn’t even got onto Italy, Ireland UK etc yet. OR the big Daddy, USA Unfortunately Victoria, I don’t think it is going to get better, someone said to me while O/s the only way out is a “war” ,heaven help us if that is the only solution!
ShowsON waiting for your answer on the Greek debt % to their GDP as you promised
by mari on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:52 pm
The problem with a con artist such as Monckton is that he is polite, charming and sounds ultra reasonable. The true con. No, he says, he’s not a scientist, he’s a “climate-sensitivity specialist” (?). (Applause form adoring fans) But your so-called refereed paper was rejected by the journal and the editors sacked, m’lord. Tragedy, tragedy, for two good men. (Applause from adoring fans).
He throws out practised info at such a rate that it cannot be picked over in the space of a short lecture, which is the reason Denniss gives that real scientists refuse to engage with him. But those who follow him and only read the papers he recommends believe every distorted word.
by lizzie on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:53 pm
Held my nose and went to check the web site of The Sun – not a single story can be found on it about the crisis engulfing its owner. Nothing. Nought. Nada. Zip. Bugger all. The center of a doughnut.
However there is far, far more important stuff.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/3701059/History-made-as-nipple-is-found-on-foot.html#ixzz1SWINnlEh
Spectacular huh?
by grantplant on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:55 pm
Dr Good
.
Ah but he does. In the same CV
by poroti on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:56 pm
Gillard gets stuck into Abbott’s routine and deliberate lies, apparently bought hook, line and sinker by our hapless crew of nodding-dog ‘journos’: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-07-19/gillard-on-abbott-crazy-comment/2800486
["Clearly a lot of nonsense has been spoken about the future of coal mining as we price carbon," Ms Gillard told journalists outside the mine.
"There's a lot of fear around because people have been told that coal mining won't have a future if we move to price carbon.
"Mr Abbott has been out there saying there is no future for coal in this country. He did that wearing a Peabody mining jacket and Peabody, a huge company, since we've announced our plans to price carbon pollution, it is interested in the biggest ever takeover of an Australian coal company, because it knows there is a great future in coal mining.
"Mr Abbott was out telling Australians they would be paying 6.5 cents more for a litre of petrol - completely wrong.
"Then he was out telling Australians we wouldn't be making steel in this country any more. That Whyalla and Port Pirie [in South Australia] would be wiped off the map. Once again, completely wrong.”
‘Less than $2′
Ms Gillard said when the carbon price is introduced it would add “less than $2″ to the cost of a tonne of coal.
“This is against a backdrop where coal prices have doubled from $150 a tonne to $300 a tonne,” she said.
“This is an industry where businesses are making profits in the order of $1 million per worker.”]
by lefty e on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:56 pm
Let me say that I am not suggesting that Monckton should be able to say whatever he wants at the NPC, university lecture theatres and community meetings around the country.
I just think that it is not entirely his fault if he is lauded (and lorded) by the press and some politicians to extent of being invited to give such addresses when he has nothing sensible to contribute.
by Dr Good on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:56 pm
2614 markjs
Thanks for that John Dean reference. An excellent read.
Dean’s next comments are in the Anglo-American context, but apply just as much to Australia
And while we are feeling it politically, according to Dean’s friend (Aussie Bruce Page) Murdoch has no politics. He’s only interested in making money.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:58 pm
True Dr Good – the real question is why the press takes his clown show to be reportable as ‘news’.
Again, any inquiry into the Australia press should probably be considered a post-mortem.
by lefty e on Jul 19, 2011 at 1:59 pm
I missed his Lordship – but got back in time to see Emeritus Prof. David Flint, arch-monarchist & great mate of Alan Jones, opining that Australia doesn’t need a media inquiry, as it’s so diverse.
I had the misfortune in the late ’80s to attend a lecture by Flint, who was then head of the Australian Press Council. He was a pompous fart then and is now a pompous old fart.
Sky are scrapping the barrel by giving him air-time, but seeing his was deferential (he said Sky is nothing like Fox) I can see why they had him on.
by charlton on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:00 pm
mari
i do wish things would stabilise soon, because it does feel like we are on the brink of a war. My mother was speaking to some friends on the weekend. They all share the same concern about a world war. They are old enough to see where everything is headed. Very disconcerting
by victoria on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:01 pm
Also thanks to My Say for the welcome back, one of my favourite Bloggers
by mari on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:02 pm
A good point that Denniss made was to question why people with any view on AGW are put on a pedestal and given air time, when people who disagree with, say, immunisation are not treated with the same reverence.
Noted that Monckton always refers to climate change, as that is “constant”, and not AGW.
by lizzie on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:03 pm
By the way, can anybody tell me whether he was questioned on the House of Lords issue?
by charlton on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:03 pm
Victoria re a “War” I often think the older people who have been through it all should be asked their opinion more often,I do hope that won’t be the solution
Re older people I will be there soon enough
by mari on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:06 pm
mari
If we continue to live, we all get old enough!!
by victoria on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:07 pm
charlton
He bristled and said that he had been guaranteed there would be no ad hominem questions. Then he showed his passport, which named him as Lord Monckton, and said he was going to demand an apology from the House of Lords.
As much of a wily non-answer as he gives to all questions on cc.
by lizzie on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:07 pm
He doesn’t do so because he knows how absurd a claim it is.
Ergo, he knows that he tells lies, and his medical condition shouldn’t be used as an excuse for his compulsive lying.
by ShowsOn on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:09 pm
ducky@2919
Missed the presser. Did Abbott have anything enlightening to say?
by victoria on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:09 pm