Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
I agree that it was great to see Gillard poke fun at Abbott’s absurd statement on 5%, but I was sorry she didn’t also rip inot the other half of his (Abbott’s) nonsense.
China does NOT plan to increase CO2 emissions by 500%! I posted a link to their official policy a few days ago. They acknowledge that in the short term Chinese CO2 emissions will rise as they complete their industrialisation plan, though even then not by 500%. But they are also working hard to reduce emissions from industry, and contain growth in emissions from consumers. The end result will be that Chinese emissions will never rise above Europe’s per capita, and stop well below Australian or United States per capita emissions. 500% my arse.
For Tony Abott’s education, here is the link to Chinese GHG policy again:
http://www.china.org.cn/government/news/2008-10/29/content_16681689.htm
Here is the link to a forecast of Chinese emission growth (based on EIA 2009 data):
http://photos.mongabay.com/09/forecast_co2_line.jpg
You cannot show a 500% increase in Chinese emissions from their current level on that graph. Maybe if you go back to pick a starting point before 1990 and a finish point well after 2020. But that is not what Abbott said. In the timeframe we are considering, the increase over current levels for CHina is less than 1/10th of what Abbott claimed.
Stop the Lies!
by Socrates on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:09 pm
victoria,
I muted it. The body language wasn’t good. Nodding and swaying.
by This little black duck on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:10 pm
victoria
What instability is it that worries you ? Tyrants have fallen and more are in the process of falling in the Middle East and even the UK could topple a tyrant. Instability but instability that has a real chance of making the world a better place. Change can feel like instability.
by poroti on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:11 pm
poroti
The US is on the brink of bankruptcy for one
by victoria on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:12 pm
ducky
Nodding and swaying? He must have been delirious with his standing in the polls!!
by victoria on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:13 pm
does you mum mean becauce of the tight money situation in europe.?
my mother in law would often say this time and time again i think they do a lot of musing as they become much older, from when mum in law was about 78 till over 90 she would,, say’ i think there will be a war over this,’ ‘ you must watch all the countries to your north, ‘remember i told you so, when i am gone, there will be war.
but i agree with her often she said ‘ watch out for symptoms of 1935 and dad would shake his head,’
when i first met my OH i was told all the amazing stories, he had (OH] lost interest years before so they had me a new audience and i loved every minute of it as i love them
by my say on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:13 pm
Mr Monckton is a con artist.
So, that’s the Post-Modernist Hatchet School, with influence from the noted thinker Von Daniken, with a cross-hatched reference to flying saucers, suitably salt-glazed in the UK. None of that woggie rubbish.
I am appalled that PBers mock Mr Monkton. Sure, he has issues. Sure, he’s raving bonkers. But. Where is your compassion, I cry? He requires our assistance, our help. He could have been a Lord …
We should extend our hands in friendship and understanding. Say: “Come here, little monkey … ”
Remember. Smile.
by Scringler on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:14 pm
is this becauce of the rep. refusing to up the taxes of the wealthy, is this a form of holding supply
one thing about war, i would want no one else but a labor gov if that happened
by my say on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:15 pm
From boerwar. Sorry, forgot the brackets.
by Scringler on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:16 pm
my say
Your inlaws are sweet
by victoria on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:17 pm
It’s bracket creep.
by This little black duck on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:19 pm
Scringler
But a very clever con artist. I don’t think there’s much wrong with his brain.
I noticed he took Denniss’ first point about consensus (noted it down) and then spent most of the hour mocking it, using the word over and over to prove we are all fools.
by lizzie on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:19 pm
victoria
.
Could be a good thing. Such financial pinches may make them stop and think before pouring $4 Trillion dollars of treasure into the sands of Iraq and Afghanistan. The world could do with a bit more jaw jaw and a bit less war war.
Anyway, apparently the US has defaulted several times in the past and there she still stands.
by poroti on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:24 pm
Apologies if I missed this reading through your posts:
Does Conway have his gotcha? Accused ABC boss made declaration not to lobby over TV tender
by OzPol Tragic on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:24 pm
Victoria
Sorry if I’m being obtuse but who would the combatants be?
by Darn on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:25 pm
BTW: Welcome back, mari. Thanks for the posts from abroad. I really enjoyed them.
by OzPol Tragic on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:26 pm
Socrates I couldn’t agree more. When will the Government dispute every one of Abbott’s lies? They have let 90% go through to the keeper since he became LOP. This tactic failed Rudd and its failing Gillard.
Also, although not many takers on the “Life with Julia” issue, I believe this show will be extremely damaging to the PM and yet she shrugs it off as “hilarious”. There is no way parodying family members is acceptable and yet she seems to feel she has to laugh it off. Definition of parody: in which characteristics are ridiculed by imitation.
by hairy nose on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:28 pm
Darn
I dont know.
by victoria on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:28 pm
He is an ex-journalist with no training in science or economics (on climate change or any other topic) who is not a member of the House of Lords but seems to desperately need to get people to believe he is. Indeed, most of his life seems to be driven by a desperate need for his opinions to be heard, despite his lack of any standing in any of the fields he wants to talk about. He is also a proven serial liar.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Monckton,_3rd_Viscount_Monckton_of_Brenchley
His claim to “Lordship” is that his conservative politician grandfather was made a peer:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Monckton,_1st_Viscount_Monckton_of_Brenchley
What to do with him? Just ignore him. Cut off the oxygen. Wilson Tuckey is equally well qualified to give a scientific opinion as Mr Monckton. Many PB posters are better qualified. Instead, ask journalists, why did you bother interviewing him? Why not interview Wilson Tuckey instead? Equally conservative, eqully qualified, more honest.
Stop the Soundbytes!
by Socrates on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:29 pm
Thanks for that Lizzie.
by charlton on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:30 pm
Mark from LP has just been speculating that without Murdoch at the helm of News Corpse, the OO (his Australian vanity publication) may come to be judged on circulation.
In which case it will be TOAST. Game over. Its well known to be indefensible on commercial grounds.
Could this be the end of The Australian? Ill drink to that. Stay tuned, punters.
by lefty e on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:30 pm
victoria@2966
by dave on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:32 pm
All he ever proves is that he is a blatant liar
by Dario on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:35 pm
Read elsewhere that Gina Reinhart was one of those who invited him to Australia and is paying his *expenses*.
Think they would share quite a few views and opinions.
by dave on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:35 pm
dave
Depressing
by victoria on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:35 pm
Welcome back Scringler. You have made me feel guilty so I will accept that the poor fella is genuwhine because his passport says “Lord Monckton”!!
Welcome marie – loved your posts. I could taste the Greek coffee.
by BH on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:36 pm
The Australian newspaper may well be kept alive a little longer by taking tax payer funds in the form of advertising the ETS.
by Dr Good on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:37 pm
lefty e
Now that would be delicious!!
by victoria on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:37 pm
How sweet it would be if he has signed his own death warrant
by Dario on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:38 pm
Monckton again claims to be a member of the House of Lords:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cuf-S_7BstI
by ShowsOn on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:38 pm
Oh the hypocrisy!
by Dario on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:40 pm
Thanks OzPol Tragic, Darn(2963) I would be watching India and Pakistan for a starter, Iran for another, especially now Iraq is no longer a player don’t think China would be interested in “taking over” for a while-but as I said earlier please don’t let it be when I spoke about it earlier
by mari on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:40 pm
It does feel as if we currently live in Bizarro world.
Murdoch losing power and influence, and Mark Scott caught out lobbying the govt. What a tangled web we weave!!
by victoria on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:42 pm
BH also thank you, Greece is a beautiful country as are most of the people, especially when they get to know you, give you presents etc. Unfortunately their main problems were corruption on both side of poltics as well as people in power and the rich not paying taxes
by mari on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:44 pm
Victoria, after the Organ ‘declared war’ on the GRNs (a war, as Rundle noted in Crikey, that they are clearly losing), it would certainly be enjoyable to see them utterly vanquished, and driven from the field.
by lefty e on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:45 pm
externallylaws The sky is falling ! The Sky is falling!! Oh.. that’s snow. #wentallAbbottforamoment…
by gusface on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:45 pm
Talk on Sky now that Cameron is in serious polticial trouble for hiring Coulson.
Questions in the Commons calling for his resignation.
I don’t think it will come to that but what will happen in my view is the Committee proceeding (which will be televised live at 10.30pm EST) will go in very hard.
It has probably already been posted but there’s talk that the News Board will seek to have Murdoch stand down as CEO.
by charlton on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:45 pm
Atticus @2846
Thanks for that link. Makes me realize there is a whole underworld of business comment, as opposed to the shock, horror probe naked-vicar outrage in the pop press.
by Scringler on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:46 pm
hairynose – this has me worried too. Came home after lunch to find OH saying ‘what’s going on if China is allowed to increase emissions by 500%’.
If my OH’s attention is drawn to that comment then Labor had better do something pretty quickly about deflating it. OH is one of the deadest at picking up stuff from the telly or news bulletins but he heard that one.
Agree with you about the sitcom. Saw Kelvin Thomson on Agenda and he made the petinent comment that the big sendup was of Bob Hawke in a series by Max Gillies. I actually loved that series but Thomson’s point was, why now – why did the ABC skip John and Hyacinth.
by BH on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:47 pm
Socrates @ 2949;
What you mean Tony Abbott tells porkies and gets away with it? Surely some mistake!
Oh that’s right he told Kerry O’Brien only to believe anything he says if its in writing. Good point.
I wonder if the Chinese Govt are aware of the lies being told about them by a potential PM of Australia?
by grantplant on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:47 pm
good piece by the Conscience Vote
http://consciencevote.wordpress.com/2011/07/18/its-rhyme-time-kids/2011/07/18/its-rhyme-time-kids/#entry
by victoria on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:48 pm
Wow that Julia Gillard sit-com coming up on the ABC looks awful! Almost as bad as the real thing.
But bludgers it isn’t ABC bias that has led to the ABC commissioning a show they never in a million years would have commissioned about John and Janette Howard. The ABC has felt free to do this because they have picked up on the lack of respect there is for Gillard in the community.
She is now officially a joke.
by Two Piece Feed on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:50 pm
victoria
On the bright side the “impending war with Iran” story has been bobbing up regularly for years. The names of the attackers and the alleged reasons just keep changing. So it may be just a story brought out to scare the kiddies. As an article in the Federation of American Scientists pointed out years ago (when it was the Pentagon Generals who were supposedly poised to strike Iran) war gaming by the 6.5 star generals showed the US was likely to lose. Their ships were sitting ducks in the Gulf and Iranian missiles would rain down in their thousands on US bases in Iraq. The Iranians have some serious missile power and they have them in places the Pentagon people assessed as being almost impossible to take out. The resultant closing of the Straights of Hormuz would be a Come On Down $400 a barrel oil time.
by poroti on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:52 pm
China setting up carbon price scheme
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/china-plans-carbon-trading-pilot-scheme-20110718-1hl9z.html
by Dr Good on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:55 pm
Someone over at Crikey was complaining about the lack of some detail or other that Mr Gillard has yet to provide on the carbon price package. It may well have been a reasonable request for a reasonable level of detail. Who knows. However, it did inspire yrs truly to think about the level of detail we have about Mr Abbott’s Direct Action Plan to fix AGW. I have taken the liberty of plagiarising myself:
by Boerwar on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:57 pm
It will probably be quite funny and given the PM’s great sense of humour I’m sure she & First Bloke will join in the fun.
By the way, they’re planning a sequel starring Tony & Margie – now that will be a hoot.
by charlton on Jul 19, 2011 at 2:58 pm
Dr Good
.
.
I’m wondering if there is not some sort of informal agreement amonst nations regarding a carbon price. We go to a trading scheme 2015. China looks to roll out nationwide 2015. New Zeland goes full on 2015. Is the date a coincidence ?
by poroti on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:00 pm
For those of you who missed it I was distinguishing bettween Mr Abbott who is your common or garden variety bullshit artist and Mr Monckton who is a very clever con artist.
Don’t blame me. If you want to blame someone, blame Mr Hitler and Mr Marx. Apparently I am on their totalitarian side.
by Boerwar on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:00 pm
Boerwar
It would be comical, if it was not so serious!!
by victoria on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:03 pm
well below Australian or United States per capita emissions. 500% my arse.
did abbott say this or JUST a reporter,
i bet if abbott said this its becaue he doesnt want any one to notice that china are also having pollutinion levy
by my say on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:06 pm