Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Yeah, have to agree with Two Piece. Also, did you notice she’s a woman? A woman PM?? what a joke! And she listens to those fascist socialist communist capitalist “experts”, I mean that’s a joke! And do you know what else? I saw the real Julia when the real false real Julia was still coming through as the real real Julia, and oh boy, that was an official royal 100% ground beef joke!
by george on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:07 pm
He claimed today that he lectures in Climate Science “at faculty level” in some university or other.
Basically what he’s doing, and Abbott too, is spreading so many lies and red herrings that it’s impossible to contradict all of them.
I heard snippets of Monkton’s debate on 2GB which lovingly played it over the airwaves, live from Sky.
The man talks like a threshing machine. He’s one of those people who seems to be able to breathe through their ears while keeping up a bewildering drone of patter, most of it irrelevant. As someone said above, you try to think back on what he said and you come up a blank. It’s utter nonsense, but plausible sounding nonsense.
The callers into Chris Smith afterwards were almost adorational in their praise for Monckton. They couldn’t fault him one iota. Several also made very personal comments about Gillard (“she’s ugly”, “she speaks funny”, “I just hate her” and so on.). All grist to Smith’s mill. He lapped it up and agreed with every one of the callers, in every aspect of what they said.
Smith was, though, absolutely correct in one thing he said: the journalists asking questions didn’t have a clue about anything very much at all. They’re so used to just spouting gotchas and meta-political questions (e.g. “What is your comment on the House Of Lords letter?” to Monckton) that he brushed them aside with practised ease, and deservedly so. This week it appears to be Monckton Week. Each journalist asks a variation on the same dreary question in a futile attempt to get Monckton to snooker himself, which he won’t. He really does have the gift of the gab.
Monckton spouted bucketloads of figures, some of them to a hundredth-of-a-degree precision, in a bewildering array of technobabble. the journos were lambs to the slaughter. They didn’t have a clue whether he was right or wrong. This is the state of our media… a press conference seems to be a competition to see who shouts the beers afterwards for getting the victim to squirm the most. Zero information output, for zero intellectual input. Monckton handles these situations with ease. If anyone had done some homework and had come up with something new for him to answer, he’d have just made up another set of completely unchallengeable figures (unchallengeable in that they have no source and no context) to rebut them.
Another observation I made was that the entire premiss of both Monckton’s pompous utterances and Smith’s smary, nasty commentary (peppered with Gillard slagging) is that not only will the nation go broke under the CT, but that it will go broke unnecessarily, as the Earth is not warming. They both deny the science and thus automatically deny the viability of a solution to a problem they believe (or want to believe) doesn’t exist anyway.
Abbott can get away with talking to this two audiences with impunity. To the deniers he’s Chief Denier. To the Believers he’s the Chief Believer, but just not via a Carbon Tax. The ABC and the media, who don’t really have a clue what they’re writing about, just fall back on the he-said/she-said routine and leave ti at that. As long as it’s a political argument, then commentary on the politics of the argument is perfectly sufficient.
When Gillard points out that Abbott is walking both sides of the street, all Abbott has to do is say, “No I’m not” and the media will report that with equanimity. What is truth is not what the truth is, but what Abbott says the truth is. The media have no brief to contradict him or to even analyse what he’s saying, as they have given themselves a free pass to leave him alone until there’s a real election in the offing. Gillard, meanwhile gets grilled and examined on every single utterance she makes and the way in which she makes them.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:07 pm
Is don’t seem to be able to get PB to fill the entire screen. Happens with all crikey blogs. Yet the crikey site is ok. I am using firefox. Any help would greatly appreciated. Thanks
by Ian on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:08 pm
do you mean the length of the whole area where the bloggers blog or you can only see the writing area. have you clicked you whole screen are the big square
has to be two,
by my say on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:11 pm
Ian, are you able to take a snapshot of your browser and put it up on the net for us to see? What browser version and what operating version?
by george on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:12 pm
Lordy Lordy Lordy Monckton makes a goose of himself and adds to it by wearing a DLP tie. Good lord my grandfather would be turning over in his grave.
by Mytwobobsworth on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:12 pm
There you are, more proof our programming has bugs in IT!.
by 1934pc on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:13 pm
Ian@3001
Control + together. Repeat until big enough.
by dave on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:13 pm
If anyone sees a transcript of Mockton’s speech online please let me know
by george on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:14 pm
Ian,
The ctrl+ the plus/equals keys zoom in when using Firefox (I assume that you are talking about the width of the page), and the ctrl+ the minus/underscore keys zoom out.
Try that…
by Kersebleptes on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:15 pm
Ah, dave got there first…
by Kersebleptes on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:16 pm
Sorry. I made a grave mistake. It’s Monckton, not Monkton.
Also, jeez, according to glen and, I think, evan, Mr Monckton is suffering “credentials”. I ask you, how would you feel fronting up to to a public forum suffering credential deprivation syndrome? Have a heart!
I must admit, though, the peer review didn’t go well.
by Scringler on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:16 pm
charlton – have they announced that or are you joking. I was thinking of asking the ABC if they planned one for early next year.
They could have little Tony doing his chimp walk alongside his statuesque wife who obviously wears the pants in the house cos Tony always looks so inconsequential beside her.
by BH on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:16 pm
what I love about Mr Monckton is that he is the best the opposition in the greenhouse debate have and most people can see that he is a loony.
The fact that he now conceded that there is AGW and expects a a 1 degree increase shows that their mob is losing the debate – not so long ago this fool was claiming the earth was cooling. The arrogance of this man and his rich mining and right wing pollie backers to think that one paper by him doing mathematical tricks (he is not objective because he was a sceptic long before he produced his ‘proof’) outweighs 30 years of research, observation and modelling is staggering. His ‘proof’ has been refuted pretty comprehensively, but will not stop these nutters waving it around and claiming victory. why the media give this lot equal time or more than equal time with real science and scientists shows where power and influence in the country lie.
by sustainable future on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:17 pm
bh
lancelot link ?
by gusface on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:19 pm
BH
I’m thinking http://tiny.cc/zbse8 and http://tiny.cc/742w3
by poroti on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:22 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WV9Y0Qy0U20
by gusface on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:22 pm
grantplant at 2886:
Thanks for that link.
I’d heard this Harry Potter story before on the Guardian website.
Very odd and disturbing in the context of what was happening at the time. Very odd indeed.
Just goes to show what sort of people we’re dealing with, I suppose.
by smithe on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:23 pm
When the day is extended to thirty hours.
by This little black duck on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:24 pm
grantplant
No need to apologise for the long, detailed post on NOTW. It was very, very revealing.
by lizzie on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:25 pm
ABC reporter on News 25 said that Monckton “showed passion” when he said he was a member of the House of Lords.
Um, why won’t the ABC reporter state the obvious, during that part of the debate, Monckton stated something that is an outright lie, and is demonstrably so by simply quoting the Clerk of the UK Parliament?
Too much journalism these days is actually he said, she said, or he said, he said.
Apparently even stating an outright lie is considered a reasonable and even passionate contribution to a debate.
by ShowsOn on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:26 pm
Abbott just said that he thinks we should cut our energy usage.
Labor should say that means workers in power stations will lose their jobs.
by ShowsOn on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:27 pm
Thank you all. The control+ worked. Why is it that frustrating problems have simple solutions? Perhaps I should ask Tony Abbott?
by Ian on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:27 pm
sustainable future
Do you know the name of the Scientist at the Press Club today? Gee he was good and proved yet again how you can bring someone’s arguement undone with humour. I thought he was terrific!
by Mytwobobsworth on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:28 pm
gusface
I used to love that program and had completely forgotten about it.
.
A big
by poroti on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:28 pm
poroti
tone could play all the roles
by gusface on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:30 pm
New fuel discovered that reversibly stores solar energy
http://arstechnica.com/science/news/2011/07/a-new-fuel-that-reversibly-stores-solar-energy.ars
by george on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:33 pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/david-cameron-resignation-odds-surge-1001-81-hours-uk-default-risk-set-follow
by dave on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:33 pm
2/-
Richard Denniss, economist
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Denniss
by This little black duck on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:34 pm
Ian – Firefox remembers the setting next time you visit this page – or any other you have adjusted. A smart browser.
by dave on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:36 pm
Shades of Kind Hearts and Coronets:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kind_Hearts_and_Coronets
by This little black duck on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:37 pm
Who’d replace Cameron as leader of the Conservative Party if he resigned?
Ken Clark?
Theresa May?
George Osborne?
by evan14 on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:37 pm
dave,
Ditto Chrome.
by This little black duck on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:38 pm
TLBD
Thank you!
by Mytwobobsworth on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:38 pm
When does Rupert’s “gorillaring” by the brit MP’s start ?
by poroti on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:40 pm
2679 Oz Pol Tragic
Many thanks for that excellent memoir. It is a timely reminder of where we had been with responsible and determined reporters.
And it is what we chiefly lament in what has happened to the media today. The weekly papers like Nation Review and National Times, though ultimately closed due to being uneconomic, performed a great service by looking beyond the superficial.
Because of those economics and proprietor control and obsessions we seem to have lost that quality today. Mr Denmore could relate it more specifically. Perhaps only Chris Masters’ amazing 4 Corners Moonlight State on Joh has since equalled that.
Over the most recent generation the most absurd notions have been allowed to go unchallenged, except by very lonely opinion voices like Kenneth Davidson and Ross Gittins. The most fundamental, which through the installation of the NBN is at last being challenged, that is: government spending = bad; private spending = good.
That nonsense has been allowed to prevail, especially during the Howard era, and it has led to a huge rundown of public infrastructure – to the cost of everyone. Oddly it runs counter to our economic history which (thanks to the differing efforts of Labor and the Country Parties) has been that we invest heavily in these to overcome poverty, population diversity and remoteness. Even the CSIRO is a product of that. As is the ABC. As was my old department (abolished by Howard) the CES.
Until now, if in modern times it was uneconomic it’s not done. The minority government and particularly the concerns of Windsor and Oakeshott have helped restore our historic heritage (assuming the media and dark forces don’t succeed in toppling this lot).
The other great modern notion allowed to go unchallenged is corporate greed. This is personified in the outrageous packages paid to corporate executives. Even the failures (perhaps mostly them) are given fabulous golden handshakes. At the same time, as they pillage other peoples assets (whether shareholders or employees) they seek to reduce staff sizes and incomes. The morality is as appalling as the consequences.
Those two notions are still wide open to serious investigation if anyone has the resources or time. Let’s hope a few are inspired by the work of The Guardian reporters.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:40 pm
This looks fun
Encyclopaedia of Hell by Satan: book preview
http://www.boingboing.net/2011/07/18/encyclopaedia-of-hel.html
by george on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:41 pm
poroti
11:30 pm our time. ABC tele and radio are carrying it.
by Mytwobobsworth on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:41 pm
Their ABC and Channel 9 screening live from 11.30 PM – Rupert, James, Rebecca Brooks appearing before the parliamentary committee.
by evan14 on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:42 pm
Unlike you, I don’t have the stomach to listen to the likes of Smith, Jones & others.
I did recently listen to ‘Shirley’ on 2GB but never again.
I much prefer to think these types are marginal.
by charlton on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:42 pm
I have regular Facebook exchanges with a good mate of mine from my schooldays. He has sadly passed to the dark side – being a Republican in the US. However, last week he messaged me to praise Australia “for having the common sense to put in place a proper broadband network”.
I had to tell him that our Palin-lite opposition leader was ferociously opposed.
by roaldan1000 on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:44 pm
Mytwobobsworth
Thanks.
by poroti on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:44 pm
Flip, flop, flip flop. What will his position be tomorrow?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-07-19/tony-abbott-emissions-comment/2800910
by confessions on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:46 pm
poroti and gusface – thanks for the laugh with those links. All better lookin’ than TA.
by BH on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:47 pm
George, if I click the link am I going to get pictures of Abbott and his gang of merry thieves?
by jenauthor on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:48 pm
Good viewing on ABC tonight from 8PM:
Aung San Suu Kyi
Wonders of the Universe
QI
House of Commons
and tdF on SBS.
by This little black duck on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:52 pm
by drake on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:52 pm
It’s all about utes. PM Gillard can string two sentences together. The Present Liberal Leader speaks “ute” talk, that is: Winks, nods, dog whistles, lies with ums, a walking, talking definition of a shonk merchant. However, this works because it’s aimed at pig-brains with an attention span of less than one seventh of a nano-second. That is: the media. The “ute” talk is then translated, via the media, to the swine, who lap it up. If a “fact” happens to bob up, it is quickly spat.
by Scringler on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:54 pm
Ducky — sounds like my viewing menu as well!
by jenauthor on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:54 pm
Here is a ditty that is dedicated to Boord Monkton:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zi4MOA_1MYA&feature=related
by MickGCollins on Jul 19, 2011 at 3:54 pm