Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
This is ‘balance’ gone mad. If they had to put it in, it should have been a separately labelled graphic.
I can’t believe all the stuff that’s happening.
by lizzie on Jul 19, 2011 at 4:41 pm
Has this news update from Anonymous been posted yet ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jp8ha6alL0Y&feature=channel_video_title
And
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8LUSGV4cPE&feature=related
Also, if you have time perhaps you could let the advertisers on 2GB know you will be telling your friends to, not buy their products until they stop advertising on 2GB.
A short polite note will take a few minutes. This type of action does work, Glenn Beck (US Alan Jones) is going off air.
The list of 2GB advertisers is here,
http://www.2gb.com/index.php?option=com_adcentre&Itemid=187
Enjoy the show tonight.
by marg on Jul 19, 2011 at 4:42 pm
is there a link to this story,
by my say on Jul 19, 2011 at 4:43 pm
Not necessarily.
http://www.springerlink.com/content/064786861r21m257/fulltext.html
Scary, but something we see every day wrt climate change attitudes.
by confessions on Jul 19, 2011 at 4:43 pm
I’d forgotten about old Flinty, charlton. Thanks for the reminder. He is indeed that, but I find him even sillier than Monckton (who can at least dazzle audiences with bullshit), and I hope they might wheel him out for the anti-carbon rallies, or the treason charges against the PM.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 19, 2011 at 4:45 pm
dave 3079
.
Thanks I missed daretotreads question. A couple of other instances I have seen mentioned were
and
by poroti on Jul 19, 2011 at 4:45 pm
I call this one, “Oh noes! The microphones are onto me…”
http://www.flickr.com/photos/64041833@N04/5953671864/sizes/l/in/photostream/
by george on Jul 19, 2011 at 4:46 pm
It’ll be about as effective as if you wrote it to Ronnie Corbett.
by Two Piece Feed on Jul 19, 2011 at 4:47 pm
The Lib’s policy writer?
by george on Jul 19, 2011 at 4:48 pm
There’s a great story about Flinty emerging from a broom cupboard for APC hearings, as it was the only non-hoipolloi doorway he could make a ‘judicial style’ entrance from.
And this is the prson who penned “The twilight of the elites” LOL!
I always assumed it was some whining lament about declining standards at the Melbourne Club.
by lefty e on Jul 19, 2011 at 4:48 pm
George:
PS … what is GTOFH?
by Danny Lewis on Jul 19, 2011 at 4:49 pm
Spot the lie.
”The other crazy thing about this is that at the same time that our country is proposing to reduce its emissions by 5 per cent, just 5 per cent, the Chinese are proposing to increase their emissions by 500 per cent,”?—?Tony Abbott to a group of pensioners
yesterday.
Now, Mr Abbott says he was talking about the different ways of arriving at the 5 per cent target. “What I said was there was a smart way and a dumb way to achieve a 5 per cent reduction in emissions.”
by Dr Good on Jul 19, 2011 at 4:50 pm
OF!!!
acronym error – better redo!
by george on Jul 19, 2011 at 4:50 pm
oops
GTFOH.
by Danny Lewis on Jul 19, 2011 at 4:51 pm
Danny Get TF Off Here?
by Cuppa on Jul 19, 2011 at 4:51 pm
The bit about China’s likely increases being 500% is a straightout lie as well. Arent we supposed to have a press that asks questions again?
Oh, sorry, of course… the australian media…
by lefty e on Jul 19, 2011 at 4:52 pm
george,
Tres bon!
by This little black duck on Jul 19, 2011 at 4:52 pm
lizzie – I couldn’t believe what I saw on ABC Breakfast this morning. Heather Ewart was doing the ‘what the papers say’ segment and she mentioned the JG/TM sitcom with much glee.
I was appalled that she could take such delight in a Prime Minister’s life being depicted in the way it will be. It won’t be flattering that’s for sure.
Ewart, Cassidy’s wife, is the person who first used the words ‘this is a carbon tax, is it not’ to the PM and from then it went viral. Ewart’s big smiles and laughter about the sitcom spoke volumes about the ABC’s delight at the PM and Labor’s problems at the moment.
I notice Cassidy wrote a piece last week defending his wife and blaming JG for the viral ‘carbon tax’.
by BH on Jul 19, 2011 at 4:53 pm
Ah, right.
Get The F Out of Here.
by Danny Lewis on Jul 19, 2011 at 4:53 pm
by george on Jul 19, 2011 at 4:53 pm
George: it works anyway
by Danny Lewis on Jul 19, 2011 at 4:54 pm
Edited…
http://www.flickr.com/photos/64041833@N04/5953151825/sizes/l/in/photostream/
by george on Jul 19, 2011 at 4:54 pm
I’d say it’s definitely stored away. Conroy, of course.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 19, 2011 at 4:54 pm
Marge at 3100:
http://www.2gb.com/index.php?option=com_adcentre&Itemid=187
Already done, Marge. Emailed mine a couple of days ago.
Also managed to convince my dear old mum to give the computer solitare a miss and get active again. She”s also hitting the keyboard to a few 2GB advertisers and will try and get a few friends to do likewise. She’s an old Labor girl, but lately a bit jaded with all the rubbish about.
by smithe on Jul 19, 2011 at 4:56 pm
Lefty e –
Was he sharing that closet with Alan Jones ?
by MickGCollins on Jul 19, 2011 at 4:56 pm
Still can’t bring yourself to call her the Prime Minister, I see.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 19, 2011 at 4:57 pm
Conway?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IsZL10oxPwY
by This little black duck on Jul 19, 2011 at 4:57 pm
marg @ 3100:
Good advice, which I’ll follow, even though I don’t listen the verbiage of 2GB.
But I’ll take the lead of others who do.
by charlton on Jul 19, 2011 at 4:57 pm
george:
That’s brilliant!
by confessions on Jul 19, 2011 at 4:57 pm
Here’s the original – you can play spot the difference with the kiddies
http://resources3.news.com.au/images/2010/05/03/1225861/626379-tony-abbott-presser.jpg
by george on Jul 19, 2011 at 4:59 pm
george 3120
.
Take a bow.
by poroti on Jul 19, 2011 at 5:00 pm
BH
I’m glad I didn’t see that. Ewart is a sneering type – started off as a police reporter and I always wondered how she ‘climbed the ladder’.
by lizzie on Jul 19, 2011 at 5:01 pm
Glen
I’ll bite
on your argument, Australia should not have signed the Montreal protocol because we didn’t produce much CFC ; we should not have signed human rights conventions because we don’t have many humans here; we should not have signed war crimes conventions because we don’t have many wars here; etc etc.
I’ll put this simply as you are obviously a simpleton
It is a global problem
we are amongst the worst polluters on a per capita basis and in the top 15-20 of all polluting nations (our emissions similar to the UKs and are about half of Japan’s – are you suggesting they shouldn’t do anything?). our emissions are increasing at rates higher than other developed countries, so we are one of the majors – even at 1.5-2% of global emissions.
we are one of the wealthiest nations in the world and can afford to make the changes and join the rest of the world to put more pressure on the US, Russia, India and India (& China is acting – they have a carbon tax and will trial an ETS with a view to being part of an international scheme). many other nations and states are taking action and we are part of a global action
Mr Monckton is the one doing the maths tricks here, so you may want to check his logic. his claims are based on warming to 2020 and assuming warming of only 1degree per century – we are talking longer term – ie 2050 and beyond – and more vigorous science than his suggests temp rises of more than 3 deg. are likely.
by sustainable future on Jul 19, 2011 at 5:01 pm
is there a link to the HoL’s letter to our Little Lord Monckton ?
by MickGCollins on Jul 19, 2011 at 5:03 pm
sustainable future
Monckton kept insisting that “gillard’s rise” was over 5 degrees. As the Prof said, people like Monckton take the lowest possible estimate and the highest possible estimate and set out to disprove them and rubbish the authors.
by lizzie on Jul 19, 2011 at 5:05 pm
MicKGCollins:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jul/18/climate-monckton-member-house-lords?CMP=twt_gu
by confessions on Jul 19, 2011 at 5:06 pm
Or this one.
http://www.parliament.uk/business/news/2011/july/letter-to-viscount-monckton/
by confessions on Jul 19, 2011 at 5:06 pm
sustainable future @ 3131
On behalf of all simpletons who lack a voice here I protest!
Glen engages in deliberately manufactured ignorance and obscurantism.
Simpletons are at least genuine in their ignorance and mostly nice people.
by bemused on Jul 19, 2011 at 5:08 pm
George@3120 – editing – loved it!
http://resources3.news.com.au/images/2010/05/03/1225861/626379-tony-abbott-presser.jpg
by BH on Jul 19, 2011 at 5:10 pm
Thanks Confessions
by MickGCollins on Jul 19, 2011 at 5:12 pm
And still you can’t bear to give her her correct title of Prime Minister. Suck it up, Two Piece Feed. You won’t shift her about by showing your ignorance and contempt.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 19, 2011 at 5:12 pm
Re The House of Lords,
Here’s Peter O’Toole from The Ruling Class with his “we have forgotten how to punish” speech to the House.
Enjoy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Xz88K9YJOE
And yeah, Monckton has gotta be pretty bad if that lot won’t have him.
by smithe on Jul 19, 2011 at 5:13 pm
Bemused;
[obscurantism}
Love it. The “o” word.
Onya PK.
by smithe on Jul 19, 2011 at 5:14 pm
Sophie is one to talk about showing indifference.
by confessions on Jul 19, 2011 at 5:15 pm
Hubris.
by confessions on Jul 19, 2011 at 5:16 pm
Since when has Sophie given a sod about workers?
by smithe on Jul 19, 2011 at 5:17 pm
smithe @ 3141
by bemused on Jul 19, 2011 at 5:18 pm
They were indeed the days, smithe. In fact, my nom-de-plume came from there. It was a nickname that Hepworth bestowed upon Don Dunstan. At the time Dunstan, just starting to be noticed nationally, was first regarded as a flamboyant trendy.
Later when it became clear he was the real thing, Heppy regretted it, but I don’t think the Great Don ever lost any sleep over it in the first place.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 19, 2011 at 5:19 pm
Who said you can’t find inspiration in stupidity?
by smithe on Jul 19, 2011 at 5:20 pm
If the Liberals can change the law to cut workers’ wages and conditions and remove their job security .. they are very enthusiastic.
by Cuppa on Jul 19, 2011 at 5:21 pm