Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
We’ll see.
Then Abbott should have no qualms in naming such ways. At the least he’ll have to find $30b in savings to fund his carbon policy. At most $100b. Where does he find this money while still delivering his PPL scheme, and tax cuts which as yet are unfunded?
by confessions on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:26 am
The game changes when the ETS bills pass… Abbott’s whole campaign is the NO ETS guy, but even the poll just released shows that
It isn’t even law, yet 43% think it shouldn’t be repealed.
Do you think that will increase or decrease when people get their hands on the biggest income tax cuts for a decade?
The Liberals DON’T have a stomach for spending cuts! They let through the freeze on family payment thresholds that Abbott had called “class warfare” because they couldn’t even find $2 billion of savings!
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/tony-abbott-helps-pass-class-warfare-family-payment-cuts/story-fn59niix-1226080053635
Yet now you are telling us that they will magically be able to find $12.5 billion worth of savings over three years to fund the income tax cuts and pension increases!
You’re in dream land.
by ShowsOn on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:27 am
If the Queen has balls. she would be King
or a top rating shock jock with 2** who excelled in high pitch rants and dunny rendevous
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:27 am
gusface,
William is a cutie, a real softie. There is a velvet hand in the iron glove.
by This little black duck on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:27 am
“Economists reject rates drop prediction” Commsec & ANZ commented otherwise after the original article.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-07-16/economists-reject-rates-drop-prediction/2797274
Wouldn’t try to pick it myself, wait and see what happens in USA & EEC, but worth keeping an eye on any economics indicators in the next few months.
by Leroy on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:27 am
Rebekah Brooks has been arrested. This is new.
by Generic Person on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:29 am
most aussies are in abbotts dreamland except anyone with a brain.
by cupidstunt on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:29 am
gusface,
You had subjunctive deprivation?
by This little black duck on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:29 am
And who opens his show with this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0tcwN4Edok
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:29 am
Drake, I mean that I have forbidden GP from discussing the thing you would have him discuss, and I don’t think there’s much to be gained from waiving that to the extent of having him answer your question, given he’s obviously not going to say what you want him to.
by William Bowe on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:30 am
ducky
bilbo mad me me sad
bilbo shouldnt do that
gushulkface get angry
especially when only hepling frankfriend
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:30 am
Laura ain’t my favourite but that is good.
by This little black duck on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:30 am
282
I think it probably would help the Coalition electorally but it would increase campaign expenditure and require diversion of campaign resources for other campaigning to get out the vote efforts.
The SA style HoR ticket proposal strikes me as being a bit less virtuous and more partisan than automatic enrollment.
The postal vote direct to the AEC change is good except for the bit about sending the voters information to all the candidates in the electorate. It has privacy/crime and wastage issues. The voters should get a choice about if/which candidates get their details. We don`t want a burglar`s syndicate, identity theft racket or other nefarious group running a stooge to get all the postal vote information for a whole state for only $2000 (if the full recommended increase in the deposit goes through and less if it does not).
by Tom the first and best on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:31 am
Well if the U.S. defaults then rates will probably be cut by 100 basis points!
by ShowsOn on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:31 am
Howard on the ETS.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAU03kBk91A&feature=feedu
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:31 am
Youre about an hour late GP. Though im seeing tweets about james murdoch to be arrested, that would be new
by paritybit on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:31 am
It was new 2 hours ago. Amazingly it was Sky News who led with the story in Aust.
by confessions on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:31 am
Um
gazpaccio pist
why are you so behind the news
BOOM BOOM
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:31 am
No 351
The pension cuts etc could be reversed in a budget after the next election. Indexation could also be frozen.
I am personally not opposed to cuts, especially since the increases are to compensate for increased costs from the carbon tax anyway. Sure you’d get the usual welfare groups having a whinge, but so what.
by Generic Person on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:32 am
William,
I hope your PhD doesn’t have a sentence like that. Phew!
by This little black duck on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:32 am
Sounds good to me.
by ShowsOn on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:32 am
William,
I’m afraid it’s gone beyond your ruling and his willingness to answer.
I wish to email you if you have an address you can share on this site.
by drake on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:32 am
I am recieving intensive imprecations
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:33 am
JoD at 250:
Spot on Joddie.
Keating got his number the other night: ‘Gimmie what I want or I’ll wreck the place.’
Well, he’s had a pretty good go at it. He’s been smashing up the furniture a treat for hours on end now. And the punters do love a good show, thus the poll numbers. (They seem to think they’re watching Big Brother).
What happens next?
Well, he either holds his breath like you suggest or starts bashing his head against the walls until the men in white suits are called to escort him off to a nice padded room.
Either way, it should be entertaining.
by smithe on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:33 am
Yeah, not sure how I missed it. I was watching Sky News up until about 9pm then never switched back.
by Generic Person on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:33 am
i will make a prediction rupert arrested 18/7/11
by cupidstunt on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:33 am
drake,
It’s on your right.
by This little black duck on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:33 am
drake:
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:33 am
Drake, I’m about to tune out for the evening, but you can find my email address near the bottom of the sidebar.
by William Bowe on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:34 am
Giminy Puppet’s been saved from embarrassing himself
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:34 am
gusface,
Hurting not much, I hope?
by This little black duck on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:34 am
As far as these polls go I would suggest everybody chills out. Sure they don’t look that flash for Labor and in all honesty they really are two years plus from an election.
Personally I believe that they’re as valid as the Moodys’ and Standard and Poors five star CDO ratings pre GFC. It just seems to me that if we take the News Ltd standard of ethics in the UK, The US and the agenda that they are running here and apply it to polling companies something doesn’t quite add up. Just a feeling though.
Those from the right who comment/gloat here are having a bit of fun at our expense. So they should. They may, however, consider the following;
” When the time arrives the prey becomes the hunter”
Don’t for one minute believe that News Ltd and the media in general will be the same entity in 12 months that it is now.
and regards Tony Abbott;
“The tongue of a person is the servant of his heart”
Draw your own conclusions.
by Ian on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:34 am
parity
top tip
becky has to spill her load
else jamie walks, as does the old man
word is becky is up for 10-15 yrs
this is srs shite time
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:34 am
No 373
Keating is becoming progressively senile. In his sphere of acerbic delusion, the country is ‘wrecked’ if his stupid policies are repealed. What an absolute joke.
by Generic Person on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:34 am
Grrr this NRMA blonde bimbo is seriously getting on my tits. If I have to listen to her whinge about “bills, bills, bills” again I think I might just let a shoe fly at the TV! Lift your game SBS
by Dario on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:35 am
Pension cuts? Pensions are being increased by 1.7%.
So you are either saying the Coalition will campaign on cutting pensions, or you are saying they will campaign on not cutting pensions, then cut pensions?
There’s a much more serious problem. If the Coalition tried to shut down the ETS, they’d have to compensate all the companies that bought permits with billions of dollars.
Oh, and if Labor and the Greens reject all those bills, then the earliest the ETS could be shut down would be early 2015
by ShowsOn on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:35 am
cupe
am hanging on the G blog
appaprently they have some mole in the CPS
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:36 am
ARRRRGGGGHHHHHH!!!!!!
by Dario on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:36 am
OK, you blokes(esses),
The Management wants peer control. Get on to it!
by This little black duck on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:36 am
Well they could. But given the Liberal party is the party of middle class welfare and sweetners to seniors, do you really see the coalition doing this? Really?
by confessions on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:37 am
The ‘shoot the polling messenger line’ … Ian, these polls are in the Fairfax papers , not News.
by blackburnpseph on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:37 am
10-15 would focus your mind somewhat.
by This little black duck on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:37 am
No 384
The sooner SBS is shutdown, the better.
by Generic Person on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:37 am
Yup, but that was because his position on Climate change is that it is crap. Its a nonsensical position that i’ll bet he really wishes he hadn’t taken in the place and circumstances that he did as that episode really shows him up as a, well, weather-vane is probably the most polite way to put it.
When the legislation gets through (coming in August this year), he will have been unequivocal demonstrated to have failed in his primary purpose.
On Turnbull, i’m not at the moment particularly worried about him becoming LOTO. I suspect the Libs as a group are too stupid, and too enamored of their current polling position to put him in again.
by imacca on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:38 am
William,
Yes, of course.
I will most certainly be in touch.
by drake on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:38 am
In an earlier post I said ‘pension cuts etc’ but meant to say ‘pension increases etc’ – apologies for any confusion.
by Generic Person on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:38 am
Damn right, those dirty immIgrants and their tittie filth shows!
by george on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:38 am
And upset the nonnas watching Inspector Montalbano and who cannot afford a RAI Dish ?
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:39 am
Ducky
as the only Peer here
(well by marriage at least)
I proclaim the dominion of the Gussies
Any pro fib post is punishable by 24 hrs of monckton dvds
repeat offenders suffer howies defeat speech
by gusface on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:39 am
The News Of The World claim to be number 1 for news, yet there was a massive story about phone hacking in the week and they didn’t even bother to cover it.
by cupidstunt on Jul 18, 2011 at 12:39 am