Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
I forget the date
rupe is gone
by gusface on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:00 am
james as an english accent and is that is mrs murdoch behind
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:01 am
“It’s revealing in itself what he doesn’t know”
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:01 am
STFU jamie
are you stoopid or wat?
by gusface on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:02 am
4140 Bushfire Bill
Posted Tuesday, July 19, 2011 at 11:59 pm | Permalink
Sure is!
by Misfit on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:02 am
‘Your father is responsible for corporate governance…’
by Scarpat on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:02 am
i do hope our labor pollies are watching
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:02 am
It’s on 7, 9 and 10
by Dan Gulberry on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:02 am
HOLY CRAP!
Rupe just said that even if bad things are happening, we won’t do anything until the police figure out what it is!
by ShowsOn on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:02 am
Shut up,
junior
by Misfit on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:03 am
had already left the building
what’s junior think this is
an expose of Elvis
by Misfit on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:03 am
Ouch!
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:03 am
You can bet on it my say, and no doubt the Greens and Libs are as well.
by Dan Gulberry on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:03 am
James ‘Elvis had left the building…’ or similar
by Scarpat on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:04 am
They’re tearing Rupe a new one.
Delicious. I’ve waited a long time for this
by smithe on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:04 am
Misfit, snap.
by Scarpat on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:04 am
Anyone recording?
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:04 am
Wendi Deng looks like she is trying to shoot laser answers in to Rupert’s brain through the back of his head. Very intense that woman is.
by Fiz on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:04 am
dont cry for me rupe and junior
by gusface on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:05 am
Tom Watson had better be careful when using his mobile phone. These two pricks would destroy him if possible
by Tom Hawkins on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:05 am
did they ask him why he shut down the paper did i hear that correctly
dam hearing
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:05 am
fiz
she is sellling her news shares
by gusface on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:05 am
Honeycomb bar has never ever tasted so good
by Centre on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:05 am
Surprise question!
Who is Alex Marachek???
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:06 am
Please, a round of applause for Mr. Watson
by Tom Hawkins on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:06 am
my say
yep
watson asked why wait to close the NOTW till you accepted responsibilty
by gusface on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:06 am
Doogie’s back!
by scorpio on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:06 am
yep.
by Scarpat on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:06 am
There goes Cameron!
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:06 am
“I just did what I was told!”
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:06 am
geez i thought that was our duggie
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:06 am
Now the old bastard has dropped Cameron in the do dos
by Tom Hawkins on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:07 am
so, rupe has to use the servant’s entrance!
Right
by Misfit on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:07 am
this is like a movie
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:07 am
James, gus has told u repeatedly
shut ur mouth until spoken to
by drake on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:07 am
Bushfire
just wait
by gusface on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:07 am
“I was invited for a cup of tea to be thanked for our support for Mr. Cameron.”
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:07 am
why use the back door on your visits to no 10?
response: I don’t know. I was told to use it.
Hmmmmm maybe Rupe’s just a backdoor man.
by smithe on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:07 am
in through the back door many time…. yes
by george on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:07 am
we changed
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:08 am
The man with the Clark Kent glasses is a classy interlocutor.
This is really great stuff, so much so I’m going to have a chocolate monte.
by charlton on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:08 am
Murdoch asked to use the tradesman’s entrance at No10
by Dan Gulberry on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:09 am
Alex Marunchak
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/phone-hacking/8646307/Phone-Hacking-News-of-the-World-executive-worked-as-police-translator.html
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:09 am
Can;t understand your accent
by Dr Phibes on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:09 am
is the scotchman labour
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:09 am
Rupe is warming up…bad move I think
by Gweneth on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:09 am
The perpetual victim.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:10 am
don’t know, but I’d like him to say: “mr merdoch, woot the hell is goin on in yer fookin company?”
by george on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:10 am
GdnPolitics LIVE transcript of #dcms hearing with #Murdoch and #Brooks on #phonehacking http://bit.ly/r99i8a
by gusface on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:10 am
Rupe talking about which political party his papers supported.
There it is – media bias PROVED!
Ask him if he supports the Monkey in Australia?
WE MUST REVIEW ALL MEDIA LAWS – IT’S TIME
by Centre on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:11 am