Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
We won’t do any of it anymore. That’s a rock solid promise. After today we’ll be going straight. No risk.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:31 am
LibDem
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:32 am
jayrosen_nyu Watching the Murdochs testify, the impression I have is of people fighting off self-annihilation in the awareness of what their company is.
by gusface on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:32 am
no cannot watch them listening is better
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:32 am
James Murdoch – another “move forward”.
*gives him finger this time with stiff arm*
by Centre on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:32 am
I just send James an invoice. Apparently he pays out without a full picture, which Im more than happy not to provide.
by lefty e on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:32 am
Never trust a guy who gets a manicure.
by ShowsOn on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:33 am
Jimmie : “When the new information emerged….”
Translation: When you lot got your hands on all those emails we’d covered-up.
by smithe on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:33 am
Now AC, Evans and Sanchez make a break!
by Dario on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:33 am
Joey doesn’t know when to shut up.
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:34 am
is there any penalty for lying to this committee?
by Misfit on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:34 am
widen wider widest
critcal
commercial and legal rationality
underlying fact
advice
coherent
damages
litigated
arose from afar
knowing then
what I know now
coupled it with
evidence
immediately
individuals
polcie
ah ah
process
by Gweneth on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:34 am
Corporate gobbledeegook now. Bizoid-speak.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:34 am
James eating as much time as possible with PR and spin
by drake on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:34 am
Misfit,
You betcha!
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:34 am
Someone needs to ask him:
by ShowsOn on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:35 am
‘nother prepared answer. You can pick ‘em. The Abbott-like Ummms and arrrs disappear.
by smithe on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:35 am
Yes – including jail
by drake on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:35 am
Voeckler and the Schlecks losing time… descent is going to be hell scary with rain pissing down
by Dario on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:36 am
WOW! James admits he KNEW that the pay out was over phone hacking, yet he didn’t call the cops after a he KNEW a crime had been committed!
James has to go. He just admitted he was aware of a criminal activity but he hushed it up.
by ShowsOn on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:36 am
philo_quotes When you have no basis for an argument, abuse the plaintiff. ~ Cicero http://bit.ly/philq
by gusface on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:37 am
who is going to ask about payments to police officers?
by Tom Hawkins on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:37 am
He is dumb as a sock
by Gweneth on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:37 am
Yep
First to go James. Second Rebekah. Third Rupert (unless he gets the phone call first).
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:38 am
Sounds like jail time to me…
by Dario on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:38 am
actually I take that back.. i have socks smarter than him.
by Gweneth on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:38 am
would tone be watching do you all think
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:38 am
fan bloody tastic
sweat junior sweat
by Misfit on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:38 am
chaelByrnes A movie could be made about James Murdoch’s stuttering – The King’s Son’s Speech. #hackgate #NOTW
by gusface on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:38 am
Do keep digging Jimmy, boy.
by charlton on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:39 am
Rupert has nodded off again.
by ShowsOn on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:39 am
Watch the advisors body language..oh no not THAT question!!!!
by Gweneth on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:40 am
Booom.
Question: Why were the civil settlemnt figures $700k and $1 mill, respectively when the court-awarded record was $60K?
Implication: Were you buying silence?
by smithe on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:40 am
More water
by Gweneth on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:40 am
Funny how they remember exactly the financial figures that help their cause, but somehow can’t recall those figures that don’t.
Rupert answered, out of the blue, “We supported Labour and lost 200,000 circulation”
But he can’t answer whether or not he was told about the 2009 scandals even though everyone did.
by gloryconsequence on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:40 am
Drops Beck in it.
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:40 am
Evans starting to pull away from AC and Sanchez on the descent
Voeckler trying to bridhe the gap, Andy Schleck has dropped off the back of the peleton!
by Dario on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:41 am
willful blindness
by Tom Hawkins on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:41 am
Exactly, no internal investigations or sackings of NewsCorp employees from illegal activity.
POPPYCOCK!
They thought they could always get away with it.
WILLFUL BLINDNESS – yeah get the bastard
by Centre on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:41 am
“Willful blindness.”
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:41 am
wilful blindness – shutting one’s eyes to the obvious
equates to constructive knowledge
by drake on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:42 am
is this a labour mp
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:42 am
Tricky question…
by Gweneth on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:42 am
this just fkingunbelievable
There is a god
I will go to church this sunday
by gusface on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:42 am
Asked point blank: Have you been coached in your evidence?
by smithe on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:42 am
wonder what the headlines, esp the oo will say in the morning ?
by MickGCollins on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:43 am
and we get gobbledygook
by george on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:43 am
oooh,
rupe said earlier he was in touch with the editor every day
by Misfit on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:44 am
“The Australian” journos are up late and holding the presses. Or not.
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:44 am
none, Deadline for dead tree version is manna from heaven
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 20, 2011 at 12:44 am