Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Well a Mr Fairfax own fairfax…right?
by Sertse on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:16 am
Any news on how News Corp shares are travelling.
by smithe on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:17 am
Well, I am sold – I am definitely investing in News Corp. What a great company!
by Gweneth on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:17 am
So what’s the News Corp verdict bludgers? Sounds like James has cut his own throat, but how about Rupe?
by Dario on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:17 am
TLBD, a bit disappointed… it should have “WAR ON NEWS” somewhere
by george on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:18 am
Not Joel – the guy next to him with the pink tie.
by Gweneth on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:18 am
by Dan Gulberry on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:19 am
The bloke with the green tie has pulled it so tight he has almost choked himself!
by scorpio on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:19 am
Up 4% for the day:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NWS+Basic+Chart&t=1d
by ShowsOn on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:19 am
Rupe staring at his hands…tuned-out…given-up.
by smithe on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:19 am
TOM has another go
by gusface on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:20 am
more of the ‘can’t talk, it’s subjudice’ crap from junior
by drake on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:20 am
up 4%.
On this performance?
by smithe on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:20 am
sleep well my say, make good reading in the Fairfax news, cant see News Ltd covering it extensively
by david on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:21 am
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/NWS
Class B up 4.35% today.
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:21 am
i think the below is very helpfull for julia and labor i think she will be elected again
people read this and think Ha what going on here,
”I’d rather be supporting someone who’s trying to do something rather than Tony Abbott, who’s trying to wreck everything,” he said.
”Regardless of what happens [at the election], I have no self-doubt about the choices I made.”
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/windsor-loyal-to-doomed-gillard-20110719-1hneq.html#ixzz1SZ5L7kcw
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:21 am
up 4% because they are gone.
by Gweneth on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:21 am
committee has just warned wee jimmie
careful lad
by gusface on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:22 am
Rumours of the board wanting to oust the Murdochs from the empire apparently caused the stock price change.
Dismissed pretty quickly though.
by Sertse on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:22 am
up 4% because they think they might be under new management before long
by vera on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:22 am
Which reminds me of this:
http://youtu.be/WLaVdpJfbfA
by Frank Calabrese on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:22 am
thanks david but i would rather read the comments here then go to the guardian
i dont want to give any media here clicks
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:23 am
Has anyone seen hide or hair of any News Ltd journos around on twitter during the Murdoch grilling? I’m wondering if there was a directive set down for them all from on high.
by Fiz on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:23 am
tweetminster Text of email exchange between John Yates & Ed Llewellyn, the PMs chief of staff http://bit.ly/ospyVk (via @POLITICSEDITOR) #hacking #notw
by gusface on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:23 am
shut up Jimmy
by Gweneth on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:23 am
Shareholders will not be reassured that neither James or Rupe know details of millions of pounds that went unaccounted for.
by david on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:23 am
will the other papers survive in the uk
any thoughts
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:24 am
Bolt and Ackerman would be catatonic by now
by drake on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:24 am
Moving forward again from Jimmy..
This time it’s about John Chapman (one of the dudes who did the dodgy internal investigation into the extent of hacking) and News Corp coming to a “mutual understanding that a parting of the ways would be best for both” or wtte.
I bet.
by smithe on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:24 am
by Dan Gulberry on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:25 am
also at the nps not may ask questions last week, of julia did they
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:25 am
alanramsey2010 “Rupert Murdoch is a great Australian” – @TonyAbbottMHR, 27Nov95 in HReps, 10yrs after RM renounced his Aust citizenship #auspol #newscorpse
by gusface on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:25 am
Rupr on screensaver mode now.
Lights on no-one home.
by smithe on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:25 am
gosh it hard to stop listening but had better go
so tired i dont even know what they are talkin about now
keep up the good commenatry
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:26 am
Frank,
How about “My mama done told me”?
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:26 am
screen saver mode
now thats the new saying of the 21 cent
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:27 am
Yep, he answers “No” first, then asks “what’s the question?”
by george on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:27 am
my say:
The Guardian’s OK. It broke the story.
And Rupe doesn’t own it.
Which is why it broke the story….lol
by smithe on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:27 am
Can rupe be rebooted or is he just silicon scrap?
by drake on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:28 am
Why do they seem to be repeating the same things??
What would old grandma Murdoch think?
by Sertse on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:28 am
Think about this…
Just HOW did The OO hack into his twitter accounts?
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/liberal-aide-daniel-bevan-admits-anti-coalition-tweets/story-fn59niix-1226097887660
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:28 am
They’ll just sink the boot further into the Government
by MickGCollins on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:28 am
THAT’S THE PETER REITH DEFENSE!
Don’t tell me anything I don’t want to know because it would be bad if I knew that I was spouting things that were wrong
That is bad for Cameron. Milliband is going to ask him about that in 10 different ways during PM questions tomorrow.
by ShowsOn on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:29 am
well lets hope for the best
night all thanks for your company do you realise we have made history
these remarks will be read by our grandchildren at time when, the world started to change
hope all my prayers are answered i will let you know when they are,
by my say on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:29 am
shows
clegg apparently is reconsidering his options
the tories have asked for a 3 line whip
by gusface on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:30 am
Gus I think suggested he needed a new hard drive.
He’s right.
by smithe on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:30 am
It’s 4:30 over there must be tiffin time.
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:31 am
They might have just read his twitter feed, BB, if he hasn’t made it private. He’s a twit for not just saying stupid things, but for keeping it there where anyone can read it.
by Fiz on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:31 am
Tom Watson just got up and left his seat… wonder why.
by Fiz on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:32 am
er, Rupe’s still on 5 1/4′s
by george on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:32 am