Nielsen: 61-39 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
I think and I think and I think
by Gweneth on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:45 am
I won’t know anything more until morning.
thank you everyone.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:45 am
yes lots of people want to appease you Rupe..
by Sertse on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:46 am
“and I think and I think and I think….”
That’s the trouble James.
You didn’t.
by Fulvio Sammut on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:47 am
He is an wily old fart
by Gweneth on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:47 am
by scorpio on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:47 am
The current questioner is a bit limp.
A lot of Dorothy Dixers.
by smithe on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:47 am
awww… heart throbbing daddy story
by Sertse on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:47 am
mea culpa mea culpa
Rupert’s ghost haunt him
How embarrassing
by Gweneth on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:48 am
spare me the sad stories you evil old bastard
by drake on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:48 am
PMs “I wish they’d go away!” That’s a winner, Rupe!
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:48 am
He shouldn’t be hitting the desk, he should be giving his idiot son a back-hander, Oh puke, Gallipoli and dear old Dad gets a run.
by grey on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:49 am
Rupert sounded like he was just pleading to have a newspaper legacy to hand down to his children as he had from his father.
by Fiz on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:49 am
what!
by Gweneth on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:49 am
Rupert: I just want to be loved ….
by Fulvio Sammut on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:49 am
Will it be reported that Rupert was teary …
by Scarpat on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:49 am
StGusface dont cry rupe– crocodile tears dont suit lizards #notw #hackgate
by gusface on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:50 am
pause
by Gweneth on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:50 am
James:
by ShowsOn on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:51 am
and and and and
for a minute there thought the record was scratched
by gusface on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:51 am
THIS IS BULLSHIT, BROOKS was telling her journalists to hack phones, and yet she is getting off scot free!
by ShowsOn on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:51 am
Cut the crap!
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:51 am
Probably a suttle suggestion that if the Committee find that Rupe & Jim have no case to answer, that he might generously top up their inadequate remuneration.
Just a thought anyway!
by scorpio on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:52 am
er er but um and and were bad unreservedly and sorry arrested don’t know breach of trust allegations rapid pace the future will bear this out
by Gweneth on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:52 am
ShowsOn,
Not yet, she isn’t.
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:52 am
real anger.. was real and is real…
by Gweneth on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:52 am
At last. Limp Lettuce rouses himself and asks a question as to what Brooks meant by “more to come” in her NOTW farewell.
Poorly framed question, though and Jimmy driver right through it: I can’t say what was in her mind, I’m not her.
Lettuce should just have asked: Is there more to come as Bekka has hinted?
by smithe on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:52 am
Thta yank boardmember sitting behind him has been looking oddly at Rupe.
A Brutus moment to come, perhaps?
by smithe on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:54 am
WTF
wendi lost it?
by gusface on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:54 am
What happened?
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:54 am
uh oh
was that you gus?
by drake on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:54 am
WTF!!!
by grey on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:54 am
Did anyone else see that??
by Fulvio Sammut on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:54 am
what happened
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:54 am
Biffo!
by george on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:54 am
humble way put it right…
I am completely stupid and yet I am in charge I am trying to fix stuff but I am blind deaf and stupid…
oh – someone is angry -outrage!
by Gweneth on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:55 am
ooops …disturbance in the committee room….hearings on hold
by smithe on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:55 am
My my, it’s all happening
by george on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:55 am
Well that was lame.
Some dickhead stops the interrogation.
by ShowsOn on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:55 am
Check shirt tried to go Rupe?
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:55 am
This is way too soft. Their company hacked phones of postpositions, celebrities, royals and who else. They bribed police, hacked police phones. Who knows what else? This is their>/i> company, I know what would happen if it was my company.
by Dr Phibes on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:56 am
probably orchestrated by newscorp to deflect attention and create sympathy
by drake on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:56 am
Well call me cynical…
by Gweneth on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:56 am
This hasn’t done much for GW tonight.
The amount of methane coming off this pile of BS will cause a feed-back loop for sure.
by scorpio on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:56 am
Someone has just tried to attack Rupert Murdoch. His wife Wendi seemed to slap the person…from The Guardian site
by Scarpat on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:56 am
WTF, spoke too soon, apparently.
by Dr Phibes on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:56 am
Wendy did a ninja slap
by george on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:56 am
KarenMMiddleton Karen Middleton
Blimey, someone jumps up & tries to wallop Rupert. Wendi & James jump up & Wendi thumps the intruder. #notw #phonehacking #hackgate
by Fiz on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:56 am
STUNT
by gusface on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:57 am
Good on you, Wendi!
by This little black duck on Jul 20, 2011 at 1:57 am